뗚29뻭ꆡ뗚4웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ,No14onomꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡVol1292010쓪ꆡꆡ4퓂ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ벼ꆡ쫵ꆡ뺭ꆡ볃TechnologyEcicsApr.,2010뚨탔뚨솿뷡뫏뗄럖컶뿲볜ꋙ탬탷쯉,횣킡뺩(커몺듳톧뺭볃폫맜샭톧풺,커몺430072)햪ꆡ튪:놾컄쳡돶쇋쾵춳쒣탍뗄룅쓮벰뢴퓓뿆톧맜샭랽램싛뗄뚨탔뚨솿뷡뫏뗄럖컶뿲볜,냼삨5룶랽쏦뗄쓚죝:붨솢쾵춳쒣탍뗄쾵춳랽램;뚨탔럖컶릤뻟;뚨탔뚨솿럖컶닟싔;뚨탔뚨솿뷡뫏뗄벼쫵;쪵쪱뿘훆뗄뚯첬랽램ꆣ헫뛔틔컊쳢캪떼쿲뫍틔쒿뇪캪떼쿲뗄솽샠늻춬뗄뻶닟컊쳢뻟쳥뗘쳡돶쇋붨솢쾵춳쒣탍뗄럖룮ퟛ뫏램뫍횸뇪틲쯘램ꆣ맘볼듊:뢴퓓뿆톧맜샭;쾵춳쒣탍;뚨탔뚨솿뷡뫏럖컶뿲볜;럖룮ퟛ뫏램;횸뇪틲쯘램훐춼럖샠뫅:F204ꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:Aꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:1002-980X(2010)04-0001-051ꆡ퇐뺿놳뺰21쫀볍,죋샠뷸죫쇋좫쟲뮯쪱듺,캪룼뫃뗘맜샭뢴퓓ꆢ뚯첬뗄뮷뺳쿂뗄럇쿟탔뗄ꆢ늻좷뚨탔뗄뢴퓓쾵춳,탬탷쯉뷌쫚폚2003쓪쳡돶쇋뢴퓓뿆톧맜샭(com2plexscientificmanagement,CSM)뗄맜샭쮼쿫[1,6],뢴퓓뿆톧맜샭퇐뺿폐죋뗄쮼캬뷩죫웤훐뗄짧믡닣쏦짏뗄뢴퓓쾵춳ꆣ평폚21쫀볍맜샭뗄뛔쿳쫇횪쪶풱릤,늢쟒ퟩ횯틑뺭훰늽뇤돉튻룶뻟폐훇쓜뷡릹뗄ퟩ횯,틲듋뢴퓓뿆톧맜샭쳡돶튻룶볙짨:ퟩ횯쫇튻룶쓜쾵춳쮼캬뗄듳쓔[3-5]ꆣ헢룶볙짨쫇뢴퓓뿆톧맜샭퇐뺿뗄믹ힼꆣ뢴퓓뿆톧맜샭뮹쳡돶쇋8룶믹놾풭샭ꆪꆪꆪ쯼쏇쫇뛔퇐뺿뛔쿳,ퟩ횯훐뗄죋ꆢ풴ꆢ쒿뇪,ퟩ횯쓚룶쳥,ퟩ횯폫ퟩ횯횮볤뗄맘쾵,ퟩ횯뗄룷훖펰쿬틲쯘벰ퟩ횯뗄헻쳥쳘탔뗄믹놾죏쪶춼1ꆡ뢴퓓뿆톧맜샭5룶믹놾샭싛뗄맘쾵춼[3-5],틔벰튻룶쮼캬쒣쪽ꆪꆪꆪ쾵춳쮼캬쒣쪽[3-5,8]ꆣ헢쫇뢴퓓뿆톧맜샭샭싛싛틔컊쳢캪떼쿲,춨맽뚨탔럖컶붨솢쾵춳ퟜ쳥벰룷뫍랽램싛뗄믹뒡ꆣ떱뷱쫀뷧,퓚헽뎣쟩뿶쿂,ퟩ횯탨ퟓ쾵춳뗄룅쓮쒣탍,벴쾵춳쒣탍;펦폃쟳뷢닟싔뛔뚨튪믱뗃킧틦,뇘탫뒴탂ꆣ퓚럇헽뎣쟩뿶쿂,ퟩ횯폶떽탔믲뚨솿뗄ퟓ컊쳢쟳뷢,뗃돶뚨솿뗄뷡싛;펦폃뚨솿캣믺,탨튪벰쪱믖뢴,뚴달탂뗄믺폶,튲뇘탫뒴탂ꆣ늻뷡싛뷸탐뚨탔맩쓉,탎돉뷢뻶컊쳢뗄랽낸ꆣ뚨탔럖싛쫇헽뎣쟩뿶,뮹쫇럇헽뎣쟩뿶,뻹탨튪뒴탂ꆣ뒴탂컶뗄쮼쿫랽램쫇캢맛럖컶폫뫪맛헻뫏쿠뷡뫏,뮹풭뗄풴좪쫇풴,풴쫇쾡좱뗄,탨튪헻뫏,폚쫇뢴퓓뿆싛폫헻쳥싛쿠뷡뫏ꆣ캢맛럖컶폫뫪맛헻뫏쿠뷡뫏쫇톧맜샭쳡돶5룶믹놾샭싛:CSM헻뫏싛ꆪꆪꆪ뒴탂뗄뛔쾵춳훐뗄룶쳥(풪쯘)벰룶쳥횮볤뗄맘쾵뷸탐럖뫋탄;CSM탂풴맛싛ꆪꆪꆪ헻뫏뗄믹뒡;CSM헻쳥맛컶,퓙내헕쾵춳뗄릦쓜뷡릹뛔쾵춳뗄룶쳥뷸탐헻뫏;싛ꆪꆪꆪ헻뫏뗄쫓뷇;CSM뮥뚯싛ꆪꆪꆪ헻뫏뗄뚯솦;뮹풭싛폫헻쳥싛쿠뷡뫏쫇퓚짮죫쇋뷢룶쳥뗄탔훊뫍CSM컞탲-폐탲싛ꆪꆪꆪ헻뫏뗄ힴ첬[3-5]ꆣ5룶믹놾탐캪뗄믹뒡짏,듓룶쳥횮볤뗄쿠뮥솪쾵뫍ퟷ폃훐랢샭싛뗄맘쾵죧춼1쯹쪾ꆣ쿖쾵춳뗄헻쳥탔훊뫍탐캪ꆣ뚨탔뚨솿럖컶닟싔뷨훺캪쏨쫶폐죋뗄쮼캬뷩폚웤훐뗄짧믡닣쏦짏뗄폚쿠맘톧뿆뗄ퟮ탂퇐뺿돉맻[9-15]ꆣ뢴퓓쾵춳,뢴퓓뿆톧맜샭쳡돶쾵춳쒣탍뗄룅쓮벰뢴뢴퓓뿆톧맜샭랽램싛쾵쇐싛컄냼삨6욪:뚨탔퓓뿆톧맜샭뗄랽램싛[2,7-8]ꆣ뢴퓓뿆톧맜샭뗄랽램뚨솿뷡뫏뗄럖컶뿲볜;뚨탔럖컶뗄릤뻟ꆪꆪꆪ첽쯷춼ꆢ쫕룥죕웚:2010-03-03ퟷ헟볲뷩:탬탷쯉(1945ꆪ),얮,뫾놱볎폣죋,커몺듳톧뺭볃폫맜샭톧풺뷌쫚,늩쪿짺떼쪦,퇐뺿랽쿲:뢴퓓뿆톧맜샭ꆢ춶뿆톧ꆢ럧쿕맜샭,훐맺벼쫵뺭볃퇐뺿믡믡풱뗇볇뫅:I031700053S;횣킡뺩(1975ꆪ),쓐,커몺듳톧뺭볃폫맜샭톧풺늩쪿퇐뺿짺,퇐뺿랽쿲:뢴퓓뿆톧맜샭ꆢ릩펦솴맜샭ꆣꋙꆡ놾컄쾵ꆰ뢴퓓뿆톧맜샭랽램싛ꆱ쾵쇐싛컄횮튻ꆣ1
벼쫵뺭볃ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뗚29뻭ꆡ뗚4웚톭뮷춼ꆢ뷡릹춼;뚨탔뚨솿뷡뫏뗄럖컶랽램ꆪꆪꆪ릲듊뺭볃맜샭쏦쇙뗄컊쳢뻹쫇뢴퓓뗄뻶닟컊쳢,탨럖컶램;삩즢컊쳢뗄캢맛럂헦ꆪꆪꆪ룶쳥틬훊탔뗄뒦튪뾼싇뫜뛠틲쯘ꆣ헢킩틲쯘폐킩쫇뚨탔뗄,폐킩쫇샭;쪱볤탲쇐럖컶;뢴퓓췸싧ꆣ쾵쇐싛컄뷩짜쇋맜샭뚨솿뗄,쟒뚨탔뚨솿쫇뮥쿠펰쿬뗄,캪쇋쳡릩뿆톧뗄톧잰퇘탔퇐뺿랽램ꆣ뻶닟,뇘탫ퟛ뫏뾼싇,헢뻍탨튪폃쾵춳뗄랽램춨맽뛔놾컄쳡돶쇋쾵춳쒣탍뗄룅쓮벰뢴퓓뿆톧맜샭랽퇐뺿뛔쿳뗄뻶닟맽돌ꆢ펰쿬틲쯘뗄짮죫럖컶,붨솢뚨램싛뗄뚨탔뚨솿뷡뫏뗄럖컶뿲볜,냼삨5룶랽쏦뗄탔뚨솿뷡뫏쏨쫶뻶닟컊쳢뗄쾵춳쒣탍ꆣ쓚죝:붨솢쾵춳쒣탍뗄쾵춳랽램;뚨탔럖컶릤뻟;뚨뚨탔뚨솿뷡뫏뗄풭퓲튪쟳:ꋙ뛔퇐뺿뗄컊쳢튪탔뚨솿럖컶닟싔;뚨탔뚨솿뷡뫏뗄벼쫵;쪵쪱뿘훆뗄뷸탐돤럖뗄뚨탔럖컶;ꋚ쾵춳쒣탍펦냼몬뚨탔뚨솿뚯첬랽램ꆣ늢헫뛔틔컊쳢캪떼쿲뫍틔쒿뇪캪떼쿲뗄솽늿럖,쟒쯼쏇쫇뮥쿠펰쿬뗄ꆣ솽샠늻춬뗄뻶닟컊쳢뻟쳥뗘쳡돶쇋붨솢쾵춳쒣탍뗄2)뚯첬풭퓲ꆣ럖룮ퟛ뫏램뫍횸뇪틲쯘램ꆣ뺭볃맜샭쏦쇙뗄컊쳢뻹쫇뢴퓓뗄뻶닟컊쳢,쟒쫇뚯첬뗄,퓚붨솢쾵춳쒣탍쪱,탨튪컒쏇뾼싇웤뚯첬2ꆡ쾵춳쒣탍탔,틔뇣쓜릻쪵쪱뿘훆ꆣ211ꆡ쾵춳쒣탍뗄룅쓮뚯첬풭퓲튲돆ퟔ쫊펦풭퓲,쫇뛔쒣탍쫊펦뮷뺳쾵춳쒣탍쫇뛔듳탍뢴퓓맜샭컊쳢쏨쫶뗄룅쓮쒣쓜솦뗄튪쟳,훘튪뗘쫇ퟅ퇛폚캴살ꆣ춨뎣컒쏇뚼쇋탍ꆣ평폚뢴퓓뿆톧맜샭뗄퇐뺿뛔쿳쫇폐죋뗄쮼캬뷩뷢맽좥,뛸뻶닟쫇헫뛔캴살뗄ꆣ캴살쫇튻훖믺믡,컒폚웤훐뗄뢴퓓짧믡쾵춳,뾼싇떽죋뗄탐캪,룃뢴퓓쾵쏇뇘탫움맀헢룶믺믡뗄볛횵ꆪꆪꆪ캴살뗄랢햹쟷쫆ꆢ춳뇘좻쫜떽뚨탔뫍뚨솿솽랽쏦틲쯘펰쿬,틲듋,컒쏇릫쮾볛횵뗄퓶횵ꆣ틲듋,퓚쾵춳쒣탍샯뇘탫뾼싇룷붫쾵춳쒣탍뚨틥죧쿂:틲쯘캴살뗄랢햹쟷쫆ꆣ쾵춳쒣탍평뚨탔뚨솿틲쯘ퟩ돉,룷틲쯘횮볤뮥쿠솪쾵,헢훖솪쾵뇭쿖캪뚨탔뚨솿뮥쿠펰쿬,몬폐뮥3ꆡ뚨탔뚨솿뷡뫏뗄럖컶뿲볜뚯쒣쪽ꆣ뚨탔뚨솿뷡뫏뗄럖컶뿲볜냼삨5룶랽쏦뗄쓚죝:쾵춳쒣탍뻟폐죧쿂쳘뗣:붨솢쾵춳쒣탍뗄쾵춳랽램ꆪꆪꆪ럖룮ퟛ뫏램ꆢ횸뇪틲쯘1)쾵춳쒣탍뗄붨솢쫇튻룶뚨탔럖컶뗄뗝췆맽램;뚨탔럖컶릤뻟ꆪꆪꆪ첽쯷춼ꆢ톭뮷춼ꆢ뷡릹춼;뚨탔뚨돌,웤쟳뷢쫇튻룶뚨솿볆쯣뗄믘쯝맽돌ꆣ솿럖컶닟싔ꆪꆪꆪ훇쓜볆쯣ꆢ춼벰췸싧쯣램ꆢ럖횦쿞뷧ꆢ2)쾵춳쒣탍뻟폐뛠닣듎뷡릹,쟒짏튻닣뻶닟ퟓ뚯첬맦뮮ꆢ틅뒫쯣램ꆢ죋릤짱뺭췸싧ꆢ쫽뻝췚뻲ꆢ쒣뫽벯컊쳢뗄뷢뻶틀뾿쿂튻닣뻶닟ퟓ컊쳢뗄뷢뻶ꆣ볆쯣ꆢ듖닚벯폫횧돖쿲솿믺ꆢ퇝뮯늩?ꆢ믬폫럖탎ꆢ컄3)쾵춳쒣탍뻟폐톧쾰쓜솦,벴쓜폫뮷뺳쿠뮥ퟷ쿗볆솿램ꆢ럂헦ꆢ볆솿뺭볃톧랽램ꆢ뢴퓓췸싧;뚨탔뚨솿폃,춨맽톧쾰ꆢ퇝뮯,쫊펦뮷뺳뗄뇤뮯ꆣ뷡뫏뗄벼쫵ꆪꆪꆪ붻뮥쪽쒿뇪램ꆢ벯뫏펳짤램ꆢ짏쿂삭닋212ꆡ붨솢쾵춳쒣탍뗄풭퓲떥램ꆢ쫤죫뷓뿚램ꆢ뫏솬뷓램;쪵쪱뿘훆뗄뚯첬랽1)뚨탔뚨솿뷡뫏뗄풭퓲ꆣ램ꆪꆪꆪힴ첬몯쫽뇤뚯램ꆢ맦퓲뇤뚯램ꆣ죧춼2쯹쪾ꆣ춼2ꆡ뚨탔뚨솿뷡뫏뗄럖컶뿲볜2
ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ탬탷쯉뗈:뚨탔뚨솿뷡뫏뗄럖컶뿲볜ꆡꆡ램풭샭죧춼4쯹쪾ꆣ4ꆡ붨솢쾵춳쒣탍뗄쾵춳랽램솽훖쾵춳랽램뻟폐틔쿂릲탔:솽훖랽램뚼쓜좫맜샭쏦쇙뗄뻶닟컊쳢뻟폐솽훖늻춬뗄쳘탔:틔쏦ꆢ뻹뫢뗘뒦샭뢴퓓뻶닟컊쳢;솽훖랽램쫇뿆톧튲쫇컊쳢캪떼쿲,쫇뻶닟맽돌;틔쒿뇪캪떼쿲,쫇럖컶맽틕쫵;쪹폃헢솽훖랽램붨솢쾵춳쒣탍펦뻟폐쿠떱뗄돌ꆣ폚쫇맜샭쏦쇙뗄뻶닟컊쳢뗄럖컶랽램뻟폐솽훖뒴퓬쓜솦,뿉틔뷨훺첽쯷춼,펦폃쫓뻵쮼뾼,쳡돶폐늻춬뗄쮼캬랽쪽:ퟔ좻쮼캬뫍쓦쿲쮼캬ꆣ컒쏇룹뻝쿈볻횮쏷뗄뷢뻶랽낸;솽훖쾵춳랽램ퟮ훕쳥쿖캪뚨헢솽훖늻춬뗄쮼캬랽쪽,쳡돶솽훖붨솢쾵춳쒣탍뗄솿뗄뷡맻ꆣ쾵춳랽램:럖룮ퟛ뫏램뫍횸뇪틲쯘램ꆣ413ꆡ믹폚럖룮ퟛ뫏램뗄튻룶쾵춳쒣탍ꆪꆪꆪ럧쿕춶411ꆡ럖룮ퟛ뫏램쿮쒿움볛쾵춳쒣탍럖룮ퟛ뫏램쫇틔컊쳢캪떼쿲,폃ퟔ좻쮼캬붨솢41311ꆡ쾵춳쒣탍붨솢뗄믹뒡랴펳뻶닟맽돌뗄샭싛쒣탍ꆣ펦폃럖룮ퟛ뫏램붨솢럧쿕춶쿮쒿움볛쾵춳쒣럖룮ퟛ뫏램뗄쮼쿫:쫗쿈뛔퇐뺿뗄뛔쿳뷸탐돤탍쫇틔3쳵ꆰ럧쿕춶믹놾맦퓲ꆱ캪믹뒡뗄ꆣ럖뗄뚨탔럖컶,붫컊쳢쏨쫶캪뻶닟맽돌;좻뫳틀뻝뻶럧쿕춶뗄3룶믹놾맦퓲쫇[2]:닟맽돌,럖뷢뻶닟컊쳢캪죴룉벶뇰뗄ퟓ컊쳢;ퟮ뫳붫1)쎿쿮춶늻돐쫜뛠폚솽쿮뗄럧쿕ꆣ룷ퟓ컊쳢뗄뷢듰뫏돉캪풭컊쳢뗄뷢듰ꆣ2)V=PꇁSꇁEꆣ헢샯V=쿮쒿뗄볛횵;P=컊럖룮ퟛ뫏램풭샭죧춼3쯹쪾ꆣ쳢뗄쓑뛈;S=뷢뻶랽낸뗄뫏샭탔;E=웳튵볒췅뛓뗄쯘훊ꆣ3)쿲P듳뗄릫쮾춶,늻맜S뫍E퓵퇹,릫릲쫐뎡뚼붫뢳폨헢퇹뗄릫쮾틔럇뎣룟뗄Vꆣ횮쯹틔죏캪룃쾵춳쒣탍뿉틔펦폃럖룮ퟛ뫏램살붨솢쫇틲캪웤뫋탄맦퓲ꆪꆪꆪ맦퓲뛾,쳥쿖쇋춶뻶닟럖컶컊쳢뗄쇷돌:ꋙ럖컶컊쳢ꆪꆪꆪ춶믺폶;ꋚ움볛뷢뻶랽낸ꆪꆪꆪ짌튵쒣쪽;ꋛ움볛쪵쪩쓜솦ꆪꆪꆪ웳튵볒췅뛓ꆣ41312ꆡ붨솢럧쿕춶쿮쒿움볛쾵춳쒣탍춼3ꆡ럖룮ퟛ뫏램풭샭1)맦퓲1쫇붨솢럧쿕춶쿮쒿움볛쾵춳쒣탍뗄돶랢뗣ꆣ412ꆡ횸뇪틲쯘램횸뇪틲쯘램쫇틔쒿뇪캪떼쿲,폃쓦쿲쮼캬붨솢뒦폚훖ퟓ웚믲퓧웚뷗뛎뗄럧쿕웳튵쏦쇙5훖뗤랴펳룷훖뻶닟틲쯘뗄샭싛쒣탍ꆣ탍뗄럧쿕,웳튵볒뇘탫쮼뾼쿂쇐컊쳢:횸뇪틲쯘램뗄쮼쿫쫇듓쒿뇪돶랢,좷뚨펰쿬틲ꋙ뾪랢럧쿕:컒쏇쓜뾪랢돶닺욷싰?쯘뫍뛈솿횸뇪,ퟔ뚥쿲쿂,뷸탐쓦쿲쮼캬ꆣ횸뇪틲쯘ꋚ짺닺럧쿕:죧맻컒쏇쓜뾪랢닺욷,컒쏇쓜짺닺쯼싰?춼4ꆡ횸뇪틲쯘램풭샭춼3
벼쫵뺭볃ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뗚29뻭ꆡ뗚4웚ꆡꆡꋛ쫐뎡럧쿕:죧맻컒쏇쓜짺닺닺욷,컒쏇쓜쿺쫛좡횵춨뎣튲퓚0뫍3횮볤ꆣ돶쯼싰?평럖룮ퟛ뫏램뗃떽뗄럧쿕춶쿮쒿움볛쾵춳쒣ꋜ맜샭럧쿕:죧맻컒쏇쓜쫛돶닺욷,컒쏇쓜믱뗃탍쫇CPV=f(P,S(T,B),E)샻죳싰?3)맦퓲3쫇붨솢럧쿕춶쿮쒿움볛쾵춳쒣탍뗄ꋝ랢햹럧쿕:죧맻컒쏇쓜맜샭릫쮾,컒쏇쓜랢햹맩쫴ꆣ쯼싰?맦퓲3횸돶퓚듳P릫쮾훐,볛횵뗈폚컊쳢뗄듳럧쿕춶뗄뗚튻룶맦퓲룦쯟럧쿕놾볒ퟮ쓜폐킡,뛸늻쫇쯼뗄뷢뻶랽낸ꆣ틲뛸헢튻맦퓲튲돆ꆰ듳P킧뗘볓틔뿘훆뫍럀랶뗄럧쿕쫇뗚3뫍뗚4훖ꆪꆪꆪ쫐맦퓲ꆱꆣ뛔듳P릫쮾뷸탐럧쿕춶뇈퓚킡P릫쮾춶뎡럧쿕뫍맜샭럧쿕ꆣ뾪랢뫍짺닺럧쿕펦평웳튵볒퓚,춶뗄쫕틦V룼룟,쇷뚯탔룼뫃ꆣ톰헒럧쿕놾잰살돐떣,랢햹럧쿕춨뎣쫇평릫릲춶414ꆡ믹폚횸뇪틲쯘램뗄튻룶쾵춳쒣탍ꆪꆪꆪ럧쿕춶헟퓚럧쿕놾볒뇤쿖웤춶뫳좥돐떣ꆣ쿮쒿움볛죽캬쾵춳쒣탍헢쫇붨솢럧쿕춶쿮쒿움볛쾵춳쒣탍뗄돶랢펦폃횸뇪틲쯘램,쳡돶럧쿕춶쿮쒿움볛죽캬뗣ꆣ쾵춳쒣탍[9],볻춼5ꆣ2)맦퓲2쫇붨솢럧쿕춶쿮쒿움볛쾵춳쒣탍뗄럧쿕춶쿮쒿움볛죽캬쾵춳쒣탍뗄죽캬쫇:ꋙ뫋탄ꆣ웳튵볒쯘훊뫍쓜솦,횸틔뒴튵웳튵볒캪뫋탄뗄뒴튵맦퓲2뚨틥쇋뻶뚨쿮쒿볛횵뗄맘볼틲쯘,쯼죏췅뛓뗄쯘훊ꆢ놳뺰뫍맜샭쓜솦뗈ꆣꋚ쿮쒿쳘탔,벴짌캪죧맻톡퓱쇋뻟폐룟볛횵틲쯘PꆢS뫍E뗄릫쮾뷸튵쒣쪽ꆣ훷튪횸짌튵뚨캻ꆢퟔ짭쳘뗣뫍펪쿺랽쪽,짦탐춶,럧쿕춶볒붫뿉믱뗃룟볛횵믲닆뢻ꆣ벰닺욷폫벼쫵ꆪꆪꆪ벼쫵놾짭벰웤뮯캪닺욷뫍럾컱뛔틲쯘PꆢS뫍E뷸탐움볛쪱,뎣폃뗄뇪뛈쾵춳뗄잱솦ꆪꆪꆪ쫇럱쫇쫴폚룟벼쫵뗄뎯퇴탐튵,틔벰쫐쫇0ꆫ3쾵춳,벴PꆢSꆢE뗄ퟮ룟뿉쓜횵쫇3,ퟮ뗍뿉뎡ꆪꆪꆪ쫐뎡잱솦벰웤닺욷믲웳튵뗄돉뎤탔ꆣꋛ럧쿕쓜횵쫇0ꆣ뛔폚럧쿕춶뛸퇔,춨뎣튪쟳쎿튻틲쯘웳튵ힴ뿶,벴웳튵뗄뺭펪ힴ뿶뫍닆컱ힴ뿶ꆣ뛔폚뒴뗄횵뚼펦듳폚215ꆣ튵돵웚뗄럧쿕웳튵,훷튪쫇뛔웤캴살닆컱쟩뿶뷸탐ꋙ틲쯘1ꆪꆪꆪ컊쳢뗄쓑뛈Pꆣ죽틲쯘훐ퟮ훘튪풤닢럖컶ꆣ뗄쫇Pꆣ죧맻튻룶쿮쒿늻쫇캪뷢뻶튻룶훘튪컊쳢뛸쳡돶뗄,뛸쟒뷢뻶컊쳢쎻폐쪲쎴쓑뛈,퓲벴쪹쫇평튻5ꆡ뷡싛룶뷜돶뗄웳튵볒췅뛓쳡돶뗄뫃뗄뷢뻶랽낸튲늻믡닺쏦뛔21쫀볍맜샭뗄뢴퓓탔ꆢ뚯첬탔ꆢ늻좷뚨탔,짺뻞듳뗄쫕틦ꆣ뛔맜샭컊쳢뗄퇐뺿탨튪폐탂뗄랽램싛,놾쾵쇐싛컄듳뗄컊쳢믡쯦쪱볤랢짺뇤뮯,퓚뷸탐움볛쪱펦쳡돶뢴퓓뿆톧맜샭랽램싛,룃랽램싛뗄훷튪쳘뗣쫇룃폐풤볻탔,펦룃폃랢햹뗄퇛맢살뷸탐럖컶ꆣ뇈죧,쳡돶튻룶뚨탔뚨솿뷡뫏뗄럖컶뿲볜ꆢ뚨탔럖컶릤뻟뇈뛻ꆤ룇듄ꆰ죃쎿튻헅ퟀ쏦짏뚼폐튻첨룶죋뗧쓔ꆱ뗄벰뚨솿럖컶뗄럇쫽횵랽램ꆣ뢴퓓뿆톧맜샭랽램싛ퟮ샭쿫퓚10쓪틔잰좷쪵쫇튻룶폐훘듳틢틥뗄컊쳢,퓚훘튪뗄쫇튻훖탂뗄쮼캬랽쪽,냼삨쾵춳쮼캬ꆢ뚨탔뚨맽좥뗄10쓪볤캪캢죭듸살쇋뻞듳뗄랢햹믺폶ꆣ솿뷡뫏ꆢ쫓뻵쮼뾼ꆢ뮷ힴ뾴틲맻ꆢ뷡릹뮯쮼캬뗈뗈,틔ꋚ틲쯘2ꆪꆪꆪ뷢뻶랽낸Sꆣ뷢뻶랽낸S뗄볛횵벰웤쯻톧뿆뗄잰퇘퇐뺿돉맻ꆣ뢴퓓뿆톧맜샭랽램싛룼쓑움맀,쯼평솽룶틲쯘B뫍Tퟩ돉:붫뛔폚믹폚죋뗄탐캪뗄뢴퓓맜샭쾵춳뗄퇐뺿듳폐늹S=BꇁTꆣ틦ꆣ웤훐:Tꆪꆪꆪ뗍볛룱벼쫵뗄듦퓚;Bꆪꆪꆪ짌튵볆놾컄쳡돶쇋쾵춳쒣탍뗄룅쓮벰뢴퓓뿆톧맜샭랽뮮믲뷢뻶랽낸뗄퓋ퟷ믺훆ꆣ램싛뗄뚨탔뚨솿뷡뫏뗄럖컶뿲볜,냼삨5룶랽쏦뗄퓚0ꆫ3뇪뛈쾵춳쿂,S뗄솽룶틲쯘뗄좡횵랶캧쓚죝:붨솢쾵춳쒣탍뗄쾵춳랽램;뚨탔럖컶릤뻟;뚨춬퇹쫇0ꆫ3ꆣ탔뚨솿럖컶닟싔;뚨탔뚨솿뷡뫏뗄벼쫵;쪵쪱뿘훆뗄폐뺭퇩뗄럧쿕춶볒뚼웚췻튻룶ꆰ췪쏀뗄Sꆱ,뚯첬랽램ꆣ늢헫뛔틔컊쳢캪떼쿲뫍틔쒿뇪캪떼쿲뗄헢뻍틢캶ퟅ:죧맻S쫇튻룶닺욷,퓲헢룶닺욷펦쫇솽샠늻춬뗄뻶닟컊쳢뻟쳥뗄쳡돶쇋붨솢쾵춳쒣탍뗄뛀쳘뗄(죧욻맻릫쮾뗄싳뷰쯾쪲);죧맻S쫇튻쿮럾럖룮ퟛ뫏램뫍횸뇪틲쯘램ꆣퟮ뫳폃튻룶낸샽ꆪꆪꆪ럧컱,헢룶럾컱펦쫇튻룶늻뿉뢴훆뗄(죧솪냮뷝퓋쳡릩쿕춶쿮쒿움볛쾵춳쒣탍,쿪쾸뷩짜쇋럖룮ퟛ뫏램뗄뿬뗝럾컱)ꆣ뗄펦폃ꆣꋛ틲쯘3ꆪꆪꆪ웳튵볒췅뛓뗄쯘훊뫍쓜솦E,웤4
ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ탬탷쯉뗈:뚨탔뚨솿뷡뫏뗄럖컶뿲볜ꆡꆡ춼5ꆡ럧쿕춶쿮쒿움볛죽캬쾵춳쒣탍닎뾼컄쿗쮵뗄쳡돶[C].뗚쯄뷬맜샭뿆톧폫릤돌싛첳,놱뺩:믺킵릤튵돶냦짧,2006.[7]ꆡ탬탷쯉.뢴퓓뿆톧맜샭뗄쾵춳쮼캬쒣쪽[C].뗚컥뷬맜샭[1]ꆡ탬탷쯉.뢴퓓뿆톧,놾쫐뎡,쿮쒿움볛[M].놱뺩:뿆톧돶냦짧뿆톧폫릤돌싛첳,놱뺩:믺킵릤튵돶냦짧,2007.,2003:ꋳ2ꋹ.[2]ꆡ탬탷쯉[8]ꆡ탬탷쯉.쫽뻝뷡릹폫쯣램[M].놱뺩:룟뗈뷌폽돶냦짧,,횣몣뇵,태놣욽.춶쿮쒿뗄움짳[M].놱뺩:쏱훷폫붨짨돶냦짧2004:3442399.,2002:2912298.[3]ꆡ탬탷쯉.뢴퓓뿆톧맜샭뗄맜샭쮼쿫[9]ꆡ돉쮼캣.뢴퓓뿆톧폫맜샭[J].쓏닽듳톧톧놨(죋짧냦),[J].첫욽퇳싛첳,20032000,31(3):126.(1):25231.[4]ꆡ탬탷쯉[10]ꆡ돉쮼캣.뢴퓓뿆톧폫쾵춳릤돌[J].맜샭뿆톧톧놨,1999.뢴퓓뿆톧맜샭뗄샭싛뫍랽램[C].훐맺맜샭뿆톧폫릤돌퇐뺿뷸햹:쫗뷬맜샭뿆톧폫릤돌싛첳,놱뺩(2):127.:믺킵릤튵돶냦짧[11]ꆡ캺뫪즭.뢴퓓탔퇐뺿폫쾵춳쮼캬랽쪽[J].쾵춳뇧횤톧톧,2003.[5]ꆡ탬탷쯉,컢잿.맜샭뿆톧뗄잰퇘:뢴퓓뿆톧맜샭놨,2003(1):7215.[N].맢쏷죕놨(샭싛냦),200525210(.쿂뗚55튳)[6]ꆡ탬탷쯉.듓뿆톧맜샭떽뢴퓓뿆톧맜샭ꆪꆪꆪ뢴퓓뿆톧맜샭톧5
ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ맺?뗈:랿뗘닺뫪맛뗷뿘뗄헾닟킧펦퇐뺿ꆡꆡ뻝랿뗘닺랢햹뗄늻춬ힴ뿶헽좷냑컕뫍벰쪱뗷헻뗷뿘[11]ꆡ솦뛈tateinChina:aneconometricanalysis[J].JournalofReal,폐뗄럅쪸,뫏샭틽떼ꆣEstateLiterature,2008,16(1):55272.닎뾼컄쿗[12]ꆡ[J].HarvardBusinessReview,1933(11):[1]ꆡ쯎늪.랿뗘닺쫐뎡닆뢻킧펦뗄샭싛럖컶뫍훐맺뺭퇩뗄쪵횤3162326.볬퇩:1998-2006[J].뺭볃뿆톧,2007(5):41252.[13]ꆡ퓸펱.닺힢죫:횧뢶쫖뛎폫쫐뎡랴펦[J].횤좯쫐뎡떼[2]ꆡ믆훒뮪,컢듎랼,뛅톩뻽.훐맺랿볛ꆢ샻싊폫뫪맛뺭볃뮥뚯놨,2007(10):29232.쪵횤퇐뺿[J].훐맺췁뗘뿆톧,2008,22(7):38244.[14]ꆡ[3]ꆡ헅쿾뺧,쯯쳎.훐맺랿뗘닺훜웚폫뷰죚컈뚨[J].뺭볃퇐curityreturn:outcomesandambiguities[J].Journalof뺿,2006(1):,1982(20):6172638.[4]ꆡ쳯돉쪫,샮믔.훐맺랿뗘닺쫐뎡럧쿕움볛:믹폚랿볛폫뫪맛[15]ꆡDOPUCHNR,뺭볃킭헻뗄럖컶[J].풤닢,2008(4):’subjectto’[5]ꆡORTALO2MAGNEF,,bustout:youngqualifiedauditopinions[J].JournalofAccountingandE2householdsandthehousingpricecycle[J].EuropeanEco2conomics,1986(8):,1999(43):7552766.[16]ꆡ커샻쓈,룟잿.뒦랣릫룦뗄쫐뎡랴펦퇐뺿[J].뺭볃뿆톧,[6]ꆡ짲퓃,쇵뫩폱.힡햬볛룱폫뺭볃믹놾쏦:199522002쓪훐맺2002(3):룶돇쫐뗄쪵횤퇐뺿[J].뺭볃퇐뺿,2004(6):78286.[17]ꆡCHOWCW,[7]ꆡ솺퓆랼,룟쳺쎷.훐맺랿뗘닺볛룱늨뚯쟸폲닮틬뗄쪵횤럖shareprices2Aninverstigation[J].Audtiting,1982(Win2컶[J].뺭볃퇐뺿,2007(8):):25223.[8]ꆡ[J].National[18]ꆡMARCIAMC,ZABIHOLLAHR,,1993(6):[9]ꆡ훜붭.컒맺랿뗘닺뫪맛뗷뿘킧펦럖컶[J].뫪맛뺭볃퇐뺿,mentsonfairvalueaccouting[J].JournalofAccounting2007(5):,1996(22):1192154.[10]ꆡ탬쿾뻼,샮병컄,쏏쏣.컒맺랿뗘닺뫪맛뗷뿘헾닟킧펦쪵횤럖컶[J].벼쫵뺭볃,2007(1):,PuYongjian,RaoXi(SchoolofEconomicsandBusinessAdministration,ChongqingUniversity,Chongqing400030,China)Abstract:,thesepolicieshaveapparentmarketreactions:whenpoliciestransferrestrainingsignals,reactionsarere2markablynegative;whenpoliciestransferencouragingsignals,reactionsareremarkablypositive;,frequentregulationsmightleadtogoodresults,butiftheyweretooconcentratedduringaveryshortperiod,:realestate;policyevent;reactioncoefficient;regulationmeans(짏뷓뗚5튳)ꆡꆡ[12]ꆡ쏧뚫짽.쾵춳쮼캬폫뢴퓓탔퇐뺿[J].쾵춳뇧횤톧톧놨,[14]ꆡ헅폀잿,쇵퇥죰.믹폚듖닚벯뗄틲맻춼랽램볲뮯퇐뺿[J].2004(1):126.볆쯣믺벼쫵폫랢햹,2006(7):42244,48.[13]ꆡ랮탋뮪,헅쟚,쯯쎯쯉,뗈.뛠횵틲맻춼뗄췆샭쯣램퇐뺿[15]ꆡ잮톧즭,폚뺰풪,듷죪캪.튻룶뿆톧탂쇬폲ꆪꆪꆪ뾪럅뗄뢴[J].볆쯣믺톧놨,2003,26(3):3102312.퓓뻞쾵춳벰웤랽램싛[J].ퟔ좻퓓횾,1990:3210,,ZhengXiaojing(SchoolofEconomicsandManagement,WuhanUniversity,Wuhan430072,China)Abstract:Inthispapertheconceptofsystemmodelandtheanalysisframeworkforcombinationofqualitativeandquantitativeincomplexsci2entificmanagementaregiven,whichconsistoffivecontents:systemmethodsforconstructingsystemmodel;qualitativeanalysistools;qualita2tiveanalysisstrategies;technologyforcombiningofqualitativeandquantitative;:complexscientificmanagement;systemmodel;analysisframeworkforcombinationofqualitativeandquantitative;splitsynthesismethod;indexfactormethod55