퓆ꆡ뫗ꆢ쫦ꆡ풪:닆헾럖좨ꆢ뮻쾵쫽폫뺭볃퓶뎤닆헾럖좨ꆢ뮻쾵쫽폫뺭볃퓶뎤3퓆ꆡ뫗쫦ꆡ풪ꆡ(헣붭샭릤듳톧뺭쎳폫맜샭톧풺ꆡ310013)(훐즽듳톧쇫쓏톧풺ꆡ510275)ꆡꆡ쓚죝쳡튪:퓚맅뗤퓶뎤쒣쪽뫍쓚짺퓶뎤쒣쪽쿂,틔췹컄쿗뛠쫇힢훘맦쒣틲쯘뫍릩룸닣쏦뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄뻶뚨ퟷ폃ꆣ쫂쪵짏,뷡릹틲쯘ꆢ탨쟳닣쏦뫍뗷뿘닣쏦뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄뻶뚨ퟷ폃풽살풽뻓폚훷떼뗘캻ꆣ믹폚듋,놾컄춨맽틽죫뮻쾵쫽헢룶룅쓮,릹붨쇋튻룶벯맦쒣틲쯘폫뷡릹틲쯘ꆢ릩쟳솦솿폫뗷뿘솦솿폚튻쳥뗄벯돉탍뺭볃퓶뎤쒣탍;춨맽쒣탍뗄쒣쓢뗃돶뺭볃쳥쾵훐뗄뮻쾵쫽퓚쿖뷗뛎뛔뺭볃퓶쯙뗄펰쿬ퟮ캪쿔훸;뷸뛸횸돶웳튵볒쫇췆뚯뺭볃퓶뎤뗄훐볡솦솿ꆣ쇭췢,ퟷ캪낸샽,놾컄ퟛ뫏볆솿뫍쒣쓢뗈쫽톧릤뻟,뻍SARS뛔뺭볃뗄돥믷폫헾뢮뾹믷틟쟩뫍췬뻈쫐뎡뷸탐쇋쒣쓢ꆣ맘볼듊:닆헾럖좨ꆡ뮻쾵쫽ꆡ뺭볃퓶뎤ꆡSARS돥믷뛔헾뢮닆헾헾닟뗄퇐뺿,틀뻝퇐뺿닎헕쾵뗄늻춬,폐솽룶퇐뺿랽쏦:튻쫇내헕Barro(1990)룸돶뗄쓚짺퓶뎤뿲볜,뛾쫇내헕Arrow2Kurz(1970)ꆢChamley(1985)뗈룸돶뗄맅뗤퓶뎤뿲볜ꆣ퓚헢솽룶뿲볜쿂,Oates(1993)ꆢDavoodi뫍Zou(1998)ꆢBird(1993)ꆢZou(1996)ꆢGong(2002,2003)뗈첽뺿쇋뛠벶헾뢮릫릲뾪횧뗄퓶뎤킧펦,첽쳖쇋룷훖쮰쫕ꆢ틆횧뢶뗄퓶뎤킧펦ꆣ좻뛸,헢킩컄쿗뛠쫇뛔헾뢮닆헾뗄맦쒣틲쯘ퟶ뇈뷏럖즢뗄퇐뺿;웤듎,뻍뺭볃훷쳥뗄뮥뚯맘쾵뛸퇔,헢킩컄쿗쎻폐돤럖뾼싇떽뛠벶헾뢮횮볤뗄틬늽뚯첬늩?뗄쪵뺰;뻍뺭볃퓶뎤뗄룷훖뚯솦풴좪뛸퇔,헢킩컄쿗쎻폐ퟐ쾸헧뇰쓄킩풴좪쫇맘볼뗄ꆣ놾컄헫뛔헢킩쟩뿶,붨솢쇋튻룶벯뷡릹틲쯘ꆪ맦쒣틲쯘ꆢ탨쟳닣쏦ꆪ릩룸닣쏦ꆪ뗷뿘닣쏦폚튻쳥뗄벯돉탍뺭볃퓶뎤쒣탍,룃쒣탍튲돤럖뾼싇떽쇋룷뺭볃훷쳥틬늽뚯첬늩?뗄쪵뺰,늢쟒횸돶웳튵볒뛔뺭볃쳥쾵훐뗄뮻쾵쫽뗄킭뗷믮뚯쫇뺭볃퓶뎤뗄맘볼탔뚯솦풴좪ꆣ놾컄뗄탐컄낲업쫇:쫗쿈뷢컶쇋닆헾럖좨뫍뮻쾵쫽뗄쓚몭;좻뫳붨솢쇋튻룶벯돉탍뗄뺭볃퓶뎤쒣탍;늢ퟶ쇋룃쒣탍뗄뇈뷏뺲첬럖컶,횸돶뮻쾵쫽뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄떯탔횵쫇ퟮ캪춻돶뗄;ퟮ뫳,틀뻝룃쒣탍쒣쓢쇋SARS돥믷쯹닺짺뗄펰쿬,뗃돶쇋헾뢮뾹틟뻈쫐삭뚯퓶뎤풼1%뗄뷡맻ꆣ튻ꆢ맘폚닆헾럖좨뫍뮻쾵쫽(튻)닆헾럖좨뻍닆헾럖좨뛸퇔,컒쏇뗄닆헾쳥훆뺭샺쇋볆뮮쓪듺뗄ꆰ듳맸랹ꆱꆢ룄룯퓧웚뗄ꆰ듳냼룉ꆱ틔벰1994쓪틔살뗄ꆰ킡럖좨ꆱ뗈탎쪽ꆣ볆뮮뺭볃쓪듺뗄듳튻춳닆헾퓋ퟷ랽쪽,틖훆쇋뗘랽헾뢮퓶볓닆헾쫕죫뗄믽벫탔ꆣ캪쇋뷢뻶벤샸컊쳢,닆헾늿퓚1977쓪틽죫쇋닆헾냼룉훆뛈ꆣ헢룶훆뛈퓚1980쓪놻좫쏦췆맣,늢쟒좡뗃쇋돉릦,쯼놣헏쇋훐퇫헾뢮뗄닆헾쫕죫,튲퓶볓쇋뗘랽닆헾뗄쫕죫ꆣ좻뛸,쯦ퟅ럇맺폐뺭볃뗄톸쏍랢햹뫍맺폐뺭볃펯샻쓜솦뗄쿂붵,훷튪틀삵폚맺폐뺭볃뗄헾뢮닆헾쫕죫뇤뗃볨쓑웰살ꆣ뛸뗘랽헾뢮ퟜ쫇얬솦맦뇜짏뷉룸훐퇫헾뢮뗄쫕죫ퟜ뛮ꆣ쯻쏇냑뢳쮰쫕죫듓풤쯣쓚떽풤쯣췢,뮹춨맽짃뚨복쏢쮰뿮뫍맄샸춵쳓쮰뿮뗈훖훖쫖뛎살쟖쪴ꆢ뷘쇴훐퇫뗄뢳쮰ꆣ헢퇹튻살,떥뒿쮰뢺쮮욽틔벰훐퇫닆헾3ꆡퟷ헟룐킻쓤쏻짳룥죋뛔컄헂돵룥쯹쳡돶뗄놦맳틢볻뫍붨틩,떱좻컄퓰ퟔ뢺ꆣ40
2005쓪뗚6웚쫕죫폫뗘랽닆헾쫕죫뗄뇈샽뚼돊쿂붵쟷쫆ꆣ믹폚듋훖뻖쏦,1994쓪뾪쪼쪵탐뗄닆헾럖벶맜샭쳥훆,훘탂뷧뚨쇋훐퇫헾뢮ꆢ뗘랽헾뢮횮볤뗄닆좨뫍쫂좨랶캧,ퟅ퇛뗣쫇쿫얤떥뒿쮰뢺쮮욽뫍훐퇫닆헾뇈훘뗄쿂붵쟷쫆,틔퓶잿훐퇫헾뢮뗄뫪맛뗷뿘쓜솦뫍퓙럖엤쓜솦ꆣ1994쓪뗄닆헾룄룯,쫇컒맺닆헾훆뛈붨짨쪷짏뗄튻룶훘튪샯돌놮ꆣ떫폫웤쯻쫐뎡뺭볃맺볒쿠뇈,컒쏇뗄ꆰ닆좨ꆱ뫍ꆰ쫂좨ꆱ뗄뮮럖쿔좻쫇늻뎹뗗뫍늻췪짆뗄ꆣ듓쫂좨뮮럖살뾴,웤퓋탐랽쿲헽뫃폫닆좨퓋탐랽쿲쿠랴,벴믹놾쫂좨폐닣닣쿂틆뗄쟷쫆ꆣ쫕폫횧뗄퇏훘췑뷚,ퟌ짺쇋ꆰ싒쫕럑ꆱ뗄듳쯁쪢탐,뛸쟒풽쫇믹닣헾뢮풽쫇죧듋ꆣ(뛾)뮻쾵쫽11뮻쾵쫽뗄뻶뚨쿖냑뺭볃쳥쾵훐뗄짺닺늿쏅뮮럖캪짺닺춶욷뗄늿쏅뫍짺닺쿻럑욷뗄늿쏅ꆣ뮻쾵쫽뻍쫇횸쿻럑욷뫍춶욷횮볤뗄뮻뇈횵,벴떱뺭볃훷쳥뷚쪡쿂튻풪잮뗄쿻럑욷쪱,뾴뾴쯼뿉틔뮻캪뛠짙풪잮뗄춶욷ꆣ뗚튻,뮻쾵쫽쫜훆폚뷰죚쫐뎡뗄퓋탐킧싊ꆣ뒫춳뗄놾믽샛랽돌뚼볙뚨쿻럑욷뫍춶욷뿉틔튻뇈튻뗘쿠뮥뮻,쿔좻헢쫇뫜늻쿖쪵뗄ꆣ쫂쪵짏,쿻럑욷뫍춶욷횮볤뗄뮻맽돌쫇튻룶뫜뎤뗄솴쳵(샽죧,쿻럑욷복짙ꇺ뒢탮ꇺ훐뷩믺릹ꇺ죚ꇺ춶욷퓶볓)ꆣ퓚헢룶솴쳵짏,ퟌ짺ퟅ듳솿뗄냼삨탅쾢돉놾퓚쓚뗄붻틗돉놾믲킭뗷돉놾,쯹틔뷚쪡쿂튻풪잮뗄쿻럑욷늢늻쓜뇘좻뗘뮻캪튻풪잮뗄춶욷ꆣ뗚뛾,뮻쾵쫽뮹쫜훆폚뺭볃늿쏅횮볤뗄뷡릹ힴ뿶ꆣ튻냣뗄뢣샻몯쫽횻쫇맘폚쿻럑욷C뗄몯쫽(벴U=U(C)),떫뾼싇떽ퟩ횯(쳘뇰쫇맺볒)뗄탨쟳뫳,뻍뿉볙짨뺭볃훷쳥맘폚춶욷폫쿻럑욷뗄뢣샻몯쫽(뻟폐쓚춹탔)벰뺭볃쳥쾵훐춶욷폫쿻럑욷횮볤뗄뮻몯쫽(뻟폐췢춹탔)럖뇰캪ꋙ:U=U(I,C)(1)T=T(I,C)(2)ꆡꆡ뛸뇟볊뮻싊뫍뇟볊쳦듺싊럖뇰캪:M5T5TRT=dIΠdC=-(3)5C5IM5U5URS=dIΠdC=-(4)5C5Iꆡꆡ떱뺭볃듯떽뻹뫢쪱,폐:MRT=-PCΠPI=-p=MRS(5)ꆡꆡ웤훐p쫇쿻럑욷쿠뛔폚춶욷뗄볛룱뇈횵ꆣ퓚볈뚨뗄?뢳뷡릹뫍짺닺벼쫵쿂,뺭볃쳥쾵뗄짺닺뿉쓜쿟믲뮻몯쫽(PPF)틔벰펰ퟓ볛룱뇈횵(pꋚ0)죧춼1쯹쪾ꆣ볙뚨뢣샻몯쫽냼삨쇋ퟩ횯뛔춶욷뗄횱뷓탨쟳,헢붫얤쟺쫐뎡뗄뚨볛탐캪,듓뛸떼훂쇋쪵볊볛룱뇈횵p1뗄돶쿖,쯼욫샫쇋펰ퟓ볛룱뇈횵p0ꆣ헢퇹,늻춬뗄p1뻶뚨쇋늻춬폚짧믡ퟮ폅엤훃뗣E0뗄탂엤훃뗣Eꋛ1,뛸늻춬뗄엤훃뗣E1뛔펦ퟅ늻춬뗄뇟볊뮻싊MRT1뫍볛룱뇈횵p1ꆣ쇭췢,죧맻웳튵늻쓜쪵쿖췪좫뗄벤샸킧싊,쓇ꋙ룃뢣샻몯쫽랴펳쇋뺭볃훷쳥뛔폚춶욷뫍쿻럑욷뗄뛠뷇뛈움볛ꆣ듓싟벭뿕볤뷇뛈살뾴,뺭볃훷쳥뛔짌욷뗄탨쟳뿉틔듖싔뗘럖캪룶죋탨쟳뫍ퟩ횯(웳튵ꆢ맺볒뗈)탨쟳;듓싟벭쪱볤뷇뛈살뾴,뺭볃훷쳥뛔짌욷뗄탨쟳폐떱웚탨쟳뫍풶웚탨쟳횮럖ꆣ헢퇹,룶죋뛔짌욷뗄떱웚탨쟳뇭쿖캪뛔쿻럑욷뗄움볛,룶죋뛔짌욷뗄풶웚탨쟳뇭쿖캪뛔춶욷뗄볤뷓움볛,ퟩ횯뛔짌욷뗄떱웚탨쟳뇭쿖캪뛔춶욷뗄횱뷓움볛ꆣ헢퇹,뢣샻몯쫽뻍냼몬쇋룶죋뛔쿻럑욷뗄움볛ꆢ룶죋뛔춶욷뗄볤뷓움볛뫍ퟩ횯뛔춶욷뗄횱뷓움볛ꆣ샽죧,폅쿈랢햹훘릤튵뗄뺭볃랢햹햽싔뻍쳥쿖쇋ퟩ횯(웳튵ꆢ맺볒뗈)뛔춶욷뻟폐뷏훘뗄횱뷓움볛ꆣ쇭췢,헢샯뗄뮻몯쫽틾몬쇋뺭볃쳥쾵뗄벤샸킧싊,튻냣뛸퇔쯼쫇쿲췢춹뗄(틢캶ퟅ뇟볊뮻싊뗄뻸뛔횵뗝퓶믲뇟볊믺믡돉놾뗝퓶)ꆣꋚ벴짧믡ퟮ폅볛룱뇈횵,쯼쫇믹폚늻냼삨ퟩ횯뛔춶욷횱뷓탨쟳뗄뢣샻몯쫽V뛸살뗄ꆣꋛ뗣E1죔퓚쿟PPF짏,쮵쏷웳튵죔좻쪵쿖쇋췪좫뗄벤샸킧싊ꆣ41
퓆ꆡ뫗ꆢ쫦ꆡ풪:닆헾럖좨ꆢ뮻쾵쫽폫뺭볃퓶뎤쎴짺닺뿉쓜쿟PPF뻍튪룄뇤탎ힴ믲캻훃,듋쪱엤훃뗣E1뒦뗄쟐쿟킱싊(벴뇟볊뮻싊)붫믡랢짺뇤뮯ꆣ평듋뿉볻,춶욷폫쿻럑욷횮볤뗄뮻쾵쫽뮹쫜훆폚짺닺늿쏅횮볤뗄뷡릹ힴ뿶:웳튵뗄벤샸킧싊(PPF)틔벰쫐뎡뗄뚨볛킧싊(p1)ꆣ뗚죽,뮻쾵쫽뮹쫜훆폚헾뢮뗄늻춬쮰뢺뷡릹ꆣ뛔춶욷뗄헷쮰돌뛈늻춬폚뛔쿻럑욷뗄헷쮰돌뛈붫떼훂늻춬뗄쪵볊볛룱뇈횵p1,뷸뛸닺짺늻춬뗄엤훃뗣E1,튲뻍뛔펦ퟅ늻춬뗄뇟볊뮻싊ꆣ평듋뿉볻,쿻럑욷폫춶욷횮볤뗄뮻쾵쫽뻶뚨폚헾뢮뗄쮰뢺뷡릹ꆢ웳튵뗄벤샸킧싊ꆢ쫐뎡뗄뚨볛킧싊틔벰뷰죚쫐뎡뗄퓋탐킧싊뗈틲쯘ꆣ21뮻쾵쫽뗄릹돉평폚웳튵뗄벤샸킧싊뻶뚨ퟅ짺닺뿉쓜쿟(PPF)늢쟒쫐뎡뗄뚨볛킧싊뻶뚨ퟅ쪵볊볛룱쿟(p1),쯹틔뺭볃뗄ퟮ훕엤훃뗣(E1)뻶뚨폚PPF폫p1뗄쟐뗣뒦ꆣ뛸늻춬뗄엤훃뗣폐ퟅ늻춬뗄뇟볊뮻싊,뷸뛸쿠뛔폚짧믡ퟮ폅뗣폐늻춬뗄뮻쾵쫽ꆣ컒쏇뚨틥닺욷뗄뮻캻쫆캪pMRT,룃뮻캻쫆p0MRT0뻶뚨폚웳튵뗄벤샸킧싊뫍쫐뎡뗄뚨볛킧싊ꆣ쇭췢냑틲쫐뎡ꆢ웳튵ꆢ헾뢮뗈킭뗷탔ퟩ횯뗄퓋탐킧싊(벴룷훖쒦닁)늻춬떼훂뮻쾵쫽늻춬뗄킧펦돆캪뮻뫄즢ꆣ헢퇹튻살,뮻쾵쫽뻍좡뻶폚쿠펦뗄뮻캻쫆뗄잿죵틔벰뮻뫄즢뗄듳킡쇋ꆣ튻냣쮵살,평폚킭뗷돉놾믲붻틗돉놾(냼몬탅쾢돉놾)ퟜ쫇듦퓚뗄,쯹틔뮻뫄즢캪헽횵(쿠떱폚ꆰ뇹즽킧펦ꆱ)ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦,떱뺭볃쳥쾵쪵쿖쇋췪좫뗄벤샸킧싊뫍뚨볛킧싊(췪좫뗄엤훃킧싊)뫳,헢쪱뗄뮻캻쫆뗈폚1;뛸떱뺭볃쳥쾵늻쓜쪵쿖췪좫뗄엤훃킧싊쪱,뮻캻쫆뗄횵뿉쓜듳폚1믲킡폚1,튲폐뿉쓜듕쟉뗈폚1ꆣ웤쪾틢춼죧춼2쯹쪾ꆣ뮻몯쫽T0뇭쪾쪵쿖쇋췪좫벤샸킧싊뗄짺닺뿉쓜쿟,Tꇤ뇭쪾쎻폐쪵쿖췪좫킧싊뗄닺욷뮻쿟;평V뫍T0뻶뚨뗄E0(쟐뗣)뇭쪾짧믡뗄ퟮ폅엤훃뗣,퓚E0뒦뗄뮻캻쫆캪1,뛸퓚E1뗣뫍Eꇤ뗣뒦뗄뮻캻쫆뻍늻튻뚨뗈폚1ꆣ춼1춼2ꆡꆡ믹폚틔짏쮼쿫,컒쏇뿉틔붨솢맘폚뮻쾵쫽뫍닆헾럖좨뗄뺭볃퓶뎤쒣탍ꆣ뛾ꆢ닆헾럖좨ꆢ뮯쾵쫽뗄뺭볃퓶뎤쒣탍(튻)뺭볃쏨쫶11뻓쏱탐캪컒쏇냑뻓쏱샭뷢캪벯쿻럑헟폫짺닺헟폚튻짭뗄뺭볃훷쳥ꆣퟷ캪쿻럑헟,뻓쏱뗄킧폃몯쫽뚨틥퓚쮽죋쿻럑쮮욽뫍릫릲쿻럑쮮욽짏ꆣ쮽죋쿻럑욷뗄짺닺뫍릫릲쿻럑욷뗄짺닺뚼쫇평ퟷ캪짺닺헟뷇즫뗄뻓쏱횱뷓짺닺뗄,떫릫릲쿻럑욷뗄쳡릩헟좴쫇훐퇫헾뢮ꆣꋙ쇭췢,쮽죋쿻럑욷뗄짺닺뫍쳡릩뚼ꋙ죧헾뢮닉릺탐캪쯹뷒쪾뗄:헾뢮돶잮살쳡릩,웳튵돶솦살짺닺ꆣ42
2005쓪뗚6웚쫇평뻓쏱ퟔ짭살돐떣ꆣퟷ캪짺닺헟뗄뻓쏱,쯻뗄닺돶몯쫽볲떥뗘뚨틥퓚쮽죋놾믽샛뫍릫릲놾믽샛짏ꆣ뻓쏱뗄풤쯣풼쫸뇭쿖퓚냑뿉횧엤쫕죫럖룮캪쮽죋쿻럑뫍쮽죋춶짏ꆣ21훐퇫헾뢮탐캪훐퇫헾뢮뗄킧폃몯쫽볙뚨폫뻓쏱뗄킧폃몯쫽쫇쿠춬뗄,벴훐퇫헾뢮돤떱ꆰ짧믡뢣샻헟ꆱ뗄뷇즫ꆣ뛸훐퇫헾뢮뗄풤쯣풼쫸쫇냑훐퇫헾뢮뗄닆헾쫕죫럖룮캪훐퇫릫릲놾믽샛뗄쳡릩폫훐퇫릫릲쿻럑욷뗄쳡릩ꆣ쇭췢,볙뚨훐퇫헾뢮폐좨냑맦랶탔뗄닆헾쫕죫퓚쯼뫍뗘랽헾뢮횮볤ퟶ돶뇈샽뮮럖살,벴쫇쮵,닆헾럖좨뗄좨솦펵폐헟쫇훐퇫헾뢮ꆣ늻맽뗘랽헾뢮좴폐냬램좡뗃럇맦랶탔뗄쫕죫,뛸쟒헢킩럇맦랶탔쫕죫쫇훐퇫헾뢮쓑틔믲늻쓜ퟨ횹뗄ꆣ헢쮵쏷,럇맦랶탔쫕죫쫇믒즫믲뫚즫쫕죫ꆣ늻맽,맘폚헢랽쏦뗄탅쾢훐퇫헾뢮듓싟벭짏붲쫇뿉틔췆닢뗄,벴훐퇫헾뢮뿉뗃떽뗘랽헾뢮뗄랴펦몯쫽ꆣ31뗘랽헾뢮탐캪뗘랽헾뢮뿉틔폐ퟔ벺뗄쟒폐폚ꆰ짧믡뢣샻ꆱ뗄킧폃몯쫽,듋몯쫽뚨틥퓚뗘랽헾뢮뗄쮽ퟔ쿻럑쮮욽짏ꆣ뗘랽헾뢮뗄쮽ퟔ쿻럑볈냼삨헽뎣뗄헾뢮퓋ퟷ럑폃;튲냼삨캥놳짧믡릫틥뗄룷훖늻뇘튪뗄맽뛈뗄ꆰ퓚횰쿻럑ꆱ믲헟ꆰ탎쿳쿻럑ꆱ,훮죧릫뿮돔뫈ꆢ릫뿮싃폎ꆢ릫뿮췦샖틔벰짝돞뗄릤ퟷ뮷뺳ꆢ룷훖탎쿳릤돌뗈뗈ꆣ뗘랽헾뢮뗄풤쯣풼쫸쫇냑ퟔ벺쪵볊좡뗃뗄쫕죫럖룮캪뗘랽릫릲놾믽샛뫍쮽ퟔ쿻럑쮮욽헢솽늿럖ꆣꋙ평듋뿉볻,컒쏇볙뚨뗄훐퇫헾뢮뻟폐릫릲탔훊,뛸뗘랽헾뢮퓲뻟폐쮽ퟔ탔훊ꆣ쿠펦뗘,훐퇫헾뢮쫇릫릲탔닆헾,뛸뗘랽닆헾쫇맺볒탔닆헾ꆣ헢퇹뗄볙뚨럻뫏닆헾뗄솽쏦탔:릫릲탔뫍맺볒탔ꆣ횻늻맽훐퇫헾뢮돤떱쇋릫릲뷇즫,뗘랽헾뢮돤떱쇋맺볒뷇즫ꆣ(뛾)뺭볃퓋탐11평폚뻓쏱뫍훐퇫헾뢮뗄킧폃몯쫽쫇튻훂뗄,쯹틔뿉냑뛾헟뫏늢캪튻룶뺭볃훷쳥ꆣ쯼쏇릲춬뗄쒿뇪쫇:maxꇒꇞꛈlncexp(-ꛑt)dt(6)0ꆡꆡ웤훐c뇭쪾쮽죋쿻럑욷폫릫릲쿻럑욷횮뫍,ꛈlnc뇭쪾쮲쪱킧폃몯쫽,ꛑ캪쪱볤욫뫃싊ꆣ평폚쿻럑욷뫍춶욷횮볤뗄뮻쾵쫽좡뻶폚뮻캻쫆뫍뮻뫄즢,뛸뮻뫄즢랴펳ퟅ킭뗷탔ퟩ횯뗄룷훖퓋탐킧싊,죴볙뚨헢킩퓋탐킧싊캪뎣쫽,퓲뮻쾵쫽뷶좡뻶폚뮻캻쫆뗄잿죵ꆣ볙뚨뮻몯쫽T=T(I,C)=aICbꋚ,퓲C맘폚I뗄쪵볊뇟볊뮻싊뫍쪵볊뇟볊쳦듺싊캪:MdC5T5TaCRTC,I=MRSC,I==-=-(7)dI5I5CbIꆡꆡ뾼싇떽뺭볃뒦폚ퟮ폅ힴ첬쪱뗄펰ퟓ볛룱뇈횵쫇늻뇤뗄,쓇쎴뮻쾵쫽뻍횻좡뻶폚쪵볊뇟볊뮻싊쇋ꆣ쇭췢,죴볓짏헾뢮뗄쮰뢺뷡릹킧펦,컒쏇뿉뗃떽냼몬닆헾킧펦뗄뮻쾵쫽ꆣ헢퇹뻓쏱뫍훐퇫헾뢮쯹쏦쇙뗄릲춬풤쯣풼쫸뫍짺닺몯쫽럖뇰뿉짨캪:Û1ckp=ꛌ(y-tey-c)(8)kpꛁꛂy=kpks(9)ꆡꆡ쪽(8)볈뇭쪾뻓쏱뫍훐퇫헾뢮쏦쇙뗄릲춬풤쯣풼쫸,튲쳥쿖쇋뻓쏱뫍훐퇫헾뢮뗄놾믽샛맽돌;쪽(9)쫇헻룶뺭볃쳥쾵뗄닺돶랽돌ꆣ웤훐kp쫇뻓쏱뫍훐퇫헾뢮룷ퟔ믽샛뗄놾횮뫍;ks쫇뗘ꋙ춨맽닆헾럖좨쯹뗃뗄맦랶탔쫕죫볓짏ퟔ벺쫕좡뗄럇맦랶탔쫕죫ꆣꋚ뾼싇떽뮻몯쫽뗄췢춹탔(벴뇟볊뮻싊뗄뻸뛔횵뗝퓶),뿉틔짨a>1쟒b>1,헢튲뇭쏷닺욷(쿻럑욷믲춶욷)뗄뇟볊믺믡돉놾쫇뗝퓶뗄ꆣ43
퓆ꆡ뫗ꆢ쫦ꆡ풪:닆헾럖좨ꆢ뮻쾵쫽폫뺭볃퓶뎤랽헾뢮믽샛뗄놾;t뇭쪾훐퇫헾뢮틀램룸폨뗘랽헾뢮뗄쮰싊쮮욽ꋙ;e퓲뇭쪾뗘랽헾뢮쮽ퟔ좡뗃뗄럇맦랶탔쫕죫뗄얬솦돌뛈ꆣꋚ떱늻뾼싇룷훖뮻뫄즢쪱1c,ꛌ뻍뿉틔뇭쪾쿻럑욷폫춶욷횮볤뗄뮻쾵쫽;폃cΠkp살뷼쯆kp뗘듺쳦짏컄췆떼뗄C맘폚I뗄쪵볊뇟볊뮻싊,쯼랴펳ퟅ쿻럑욷폫춶욷횮볤뗄뷡릹ힴ뿶;ꛌ뇭쪾뻓쏱춶욷쿠뛔폚뻓쏱쿻럑욷뗄쮰싊쮮욽(쓚몬폃cΠkp뷼쯆뗘듺쳦C맘폚I뗄쪵볊뇟볊뮻싊쪱쯹탨튪뗄뗷헻틲ퟓ),쯼랴펳쇋헾뢮뗄쮰쫕헾닟훐뗄쮰뢺뷡릹ힴ뿶ꆣ21뛔폚뗘랽헾뢮뛸퇔,웤쒿뇪쫇:maxlnsexp(-ꛑts,e,ksꇒꇞꛒ)dt(10)0eꆡꆡ웤훐s뇭쪾뗘랽헾뢮뗄쮽ퟔ쿻럑쮮욽ꛒ;lns뇭쪾쮲쪱킧폃몯쫽ꛒ,냼몬쇋뗘랽헾뢮뗄헷쫕맦ee랶탔믲럇맦랶탔뿮쿮얬솦뗄돉놾;ꛑ뇭쪾쪱볤욫뫃싊ꆣ춬퇹뗘,뗘랽헾뢮뗄풤쯣풼쫸믲놾믽샛맽돌뿉짨캪:Û1sks=ꛅ(tey-s)(11)ksꆡꆡ웤훐ks쫇뗘랽헾뢮믽샛뗄놾;춬퇹뗘1s,ꛅ뇭쪾뗘랽쿻럑욷폫뗘랽춶욷횮볤뗄뮻쾵쫽ks(늻뾼싇룷훖뮻뫄즢);춬짏컄뗄뷼쯆짨뚨,sΠks랴펳ퟅ뗘랽춶욷폫뗘랽쿻럑욷횮볤뗄뷡릹ힴ뿶;ꛅ뇭쪾뗘랽춶욷쿠뛔폚뗘랽쿻럑욷뗄쮰싊쮮욽(쓚몬폃sΠks뷼쯆뗘듺쳦C맘폚I뗄쪵볊뇟볊뮻싊쪱쯹탨튪뗄뗷헻틲ퟓ),쯼랴펳쇋헾뢮뗄쮰뢺뷡릹ힴ뿶ꆣ31평폚뗘랽헾뢮늻맜쫇짬돶싓뛡횮쫖,뮹쫇짬돶풮훺횮쫖,맘폚헢랽쏦뗄탅쾢훐퇫헾뢮듓싟벭짏붲쫇뿉틔췆닢뗄,벴훐퇫헾뢮뿉뗃떽뗘랽헾뢮뗄랴펦몯쫽,뿉볻헢쫇튻룶뻓쏱ꆢ훐퇫헾뢮폫뗘랽헾뢮뷸탐뗄뛾뷗뛎(틬늽)쟒쪱뇤(뚯첬)뗄늩?ꆣ뿉틔폃쓦쿲맩쓉램뷢횮ꆣ쯹틔,뗘랽헾뢮뗄맦뮮컊쳢쫇퓚쪽(11)ꆢ쪽(8)뫍쪽(9)뗄풼쫸쿂춨맽톡퓱뿘훆뇤솿s뫍e틔벰ힴ첬뇤솿ks살ퟮ듳뮯쪽(10)ꆣ헢룶맽돌놻돆캪뗘랽헾뢮뗄샭탔맽돌ꆣ뻓쏱뫍훐퇫헾뢮뗄맦뮮컊쳢퓲쫇퓚짏쫶뗄뗘랽헾뢮샭탔틔벰쪽(8)ꆢ쪽(9)뗄풼쫸쿂살ퟮ듳뮯ퟔ벺뗄쒿뇪쪽(6),헢뻍쫇뻓쏱뫍훐퇫헾뢮뗄샭탔맽돌ꆣ(죽)쒣탍쟳뷢c11붨솢뗘랽헾뢮맦뮮컊쳢뗄Hamilton몯쫽,쇮뮻쾵쫽sꛅ=ꛎ뫍ksꛌ=ꛆ,폐:kpHs=exp(-ꛑꛒt)lns+ꛋꛎs(tey-s)+ꛋpꛆ(y-tey-c)(12)s,e,kesꆡꆡ틀벫듳횵풭샭쟳뗃ퟮ폅쳵볾ꆢ헽퓲랽돌죧쿂:ꛒ-2ꛋꛎs=0(13)es(ꛋꛎs-ꛋpꛆꛒ)ty-2lns=0(14)eꛋꛁꛂ-2ꛁ-1ꛂ-1s(ꛂ-1)ꛅ-1teskpks+ꛋpꛂꛌ-1(1-te)ckpks-ꛑ+ꛋÛs=0(15)ꋙ벴닆헾럖좨쳥훆훐뗘랽헾뢮뗃떽뗄맦랶탔쫕죫폫맺쏱쫕죫뗄뇈횵ꆣꋚ떱e=1쪱,뗘랽헾뢮쎻폐럇맦랶탔쫕죫;떱e>1쪱,퓲폐럇맦랶탔쫕죫;떱e<1쪱,뇭쪾뗘랽헾뢮쎻폐헷쫕릻램뚨뗄쮰쫕쮮욽ꆣ틲듋,컒쏇돆떱e>1쪱,뗘랽헾뢮짬돶쇋ꆰ싓뛡ꆱ횮쫖;떱e<1쪱,뗘랽헾뢮짬돶쇋ꆰ풮훺ꆱ횮쫖ꆣ44
2005쓪뗚6웚ꛅ-1-1ꛁꛂsks(tekpks-s)-Ûks=0(16)ꆡꆡ헻샭짏쏦쯄룶쪽ퟓ,뗃떽뗘랽헾뢮뗄쮽ퟔ쿻럑뫍헷쮰얬솦랽돌:Ûe2Ûs+=ꛂꛎꛁꛂ-1kpks-ꛅꛎ2ꛑ2ꛒeks+2ꛂ1lns-1+1(17)esteꆡꆡ21붨솢뻓쏱뫍훐퇫헾뢮뗄솪뫏맦뮮컊쳢뗄Hamilton몯쫽,폐:Hp=exp(-ꛑt){ꛈlnc+ꛋ1ꛆ(y-tey-c)c,t,kp+ꛋ2[ꛂꛎꛁꛂ-1kpks-ꛅꛎ2[2ꛑꛒ-1eks+2ꛂ-1-1lns(te-1)+1]}(18)ꆡꆡ춬퇹틀벫듳횵풭샭쟳돶헽퓲랽돌뫍튻뷗쳵볾:ꛈ-ꛋ1ꛆ=0(19)c-1-22ꛋ2ꛂꛅꛎ2(lns)et-ꛋꛁꛂ1ꛆekpks=0(20)ꛋ1ꛌ-1ꛁ-2(ꛁꛂ-1)c(1-te)kpks+ꛋ2ꛁꛂꛎꛁ-1ꛂ-1kpks-ꛑ+ꛋÛ1=0(21)ꛆꛁꛂ[(1-te)kpks-c]-Ûkp=0(22)ꆡꆡ헻샭짏쏦쯄룶쪽ퟓ,뗃뻓쏱뗄쮽죋쿻럑랽돌:2Ûc=ꛌꛈ-1ꛆ2(ꛑꛂ2ꛁ2ꛂ-1kp-ꛈ)+ꛁꛆꛁ-1(1-te)kpks+ꛁ(ꛅꛎ-1)(ꛆ2te)kpksΠlns(23)cꆡꆡ31뺭볃쳥쾵뗄욽뫢퓶뎤슷뺶볙뚨뺭볃뒦폚욽뫢퓶뎤슷뺶,퓲뗘랽헾뢮뗄얬솦뇤뚯싊ÛeΠe=0,뛸뻓쏱쿻럑쮮욽뗄퓶뎤싊ꆢ뻓쏱놾믽샛뗃퓶뎤싊ꆢ뗘랽헾뢮쿻럑쮮욽뗄퓶뎤싊뫍뗘랽헾뢮놾믽뗄퓶뎤싊뚼쿠뗈,볇캪릲춬퓶뎤싊ꛃ,벴ÛcΠc=ÛkpΠkp=ÛsΠs=ÛksΠks=ꛃꆡꆡ헢퇹,춨맽솪솢쪽(23)ꆢ쪽(22)ꆢ쪽(17)뫍쪽(16),컒쏇뻍뿉틔헒떽릲춬퓶뎤싊ꛃ폫룷닎쫽(ꛎꆢꛆꆢꛅꆢꛌꆢꛒꆢꛈꆢꛑꆢꛁꆢꛂ)ꆢ룷뇤솿(cꆢtꆢsꆢeꆢkpꆢks)횮볤뗄틾몯쫽맘쾵ꆣ놾컄릹붨뗄헢룶뚯첬폅뮯컊쳢쫇쿠떱뢴퓓뗄,냼몬쇋뛠룶쿠뮥잶쳗뗄뿘훆뇤솿뫍ힴ첬뇤솿,뛔헢퇹뗄뚯첬폅뮯쒣탍뷸탐쟳뷢믹놾짏쫇늻뿉쓜뗄ꆣ늻맽,컒쏇뮹쫇뿉틔뎢쫔튻쿂뛔욽뫢퓶뎤슷뺶뗄틾몯쫽쪽뗄쟳뷢,늢쟒뫶싔쿠캻춼뗄럖컶ꆣ듓쪽(16)뿉틔뗃돶뗘랽헾뢮쿻럑쮮욽s뗄뇭듯쪽:ꛅteys=ꛅ+ꛃ(24)ꆡꆡ냑쪽(24)듺죫쪽(17)뫍쪽(23)훐,좻뫳뫏늢쪽(17)뫍쪽(23),뿉틔뗃떽릲춬퓶뎤싊ꛃ맘폚룷닎쫽ꆢ룷뇤솿뗄틾몯쫽맘쾵:4ꛃ=-ꛅꛎ2+ꛂꛎy+ꛁꛆy(1-te)-2ꛑꛅꛒ-1ꛎ2ekskskp+ꛌꛈ-1ꛆ2(ꛑkp-ꛈ)-2ꛂꛅꛎ21-teꛅteylnteꛅ+ꛃꛅtey+ꛁ(ꛆ2tey)Π(ꛅꛎkslnꛅ+ꛃ)(25)ꆡꆡ퓚짏쪽훐쎻폐돶쿖뻓쏱쿻럑뇤솿c뫍헾뢮쿻럑뇤솿s,웤쪵헢솽룶뇤솿럖뇰퓌몬퓚뻓쏱뫍훐퇫헾뢮뗄뮻쾵쫽(ꛆ)뫍뗘랽헾뢮뗄뮻쾵쫽(ꛎ)훐ꆣ뿉볻,컞싛쫇뺭볃훐뗄탨쟳닣쏦(cꆢs),뮹쫇릩룸닣쏦(kpꆢks)틔벰뫪맛뗷뿘닣쏦(tꆢeꆢꛌꆢꛅ)뚼믡뛔뺭볃퓶뎤싊닺짺펰쿬;뛸쟒헢훖펰쿬볈폐횱뷓킧펦,폖폐볤뷓킧펦,웤ퟛ뫏킧펦췹췹쫇ꆰ럇쿟탔ꆱ뗄,헢뿉쓜떼훂뺭볃퓶뎤슷뺶뗄늻좷뚨탔,뷸뛸45
퓆ꆡ뫗ꆢ쫦ꆡ풪:닆헾럖좨ꆢ뮻쾵쫽폫뺭볃퓶뎤믡닺짺뢴퓓뗄뺭볃퓶뎤슷뺶ꆣ뾼싇떽쪽(25)맽폚뢴퓓,컒쏇횻뫃폃쫽횵쒣쓢뗄냬램살뾼달닆헾럖좨(tꆢe)ꆢ쮰뢺뷡릹(ꛌꆢꛅ)ꆢ뮻쾵쫽(ꛆꆢꛎ)뗈룷훖닎쫽폫뺭볃퓶뎤싊(ꛃ)횮볤뗄맘쾵,벴ퟶ쿠펦뗄뇈뷏뺲첬럖컶ꆣ죽ꆢ쒣탍뗄뇈뷏뺲첬럖컶놾뷚컒쏇ퟶ뺭볃퓶뎤싊ꛃ맘폚닆헾럖좨(폃tꆢe뇭쪾)ꆢ쮰뢺뷡릹(평ꛌꆢꛅ살랴펳)틔벰뮻쾵쫽(폃ꛆꆢꛎ살뇭쪾)뗈뗄뇈뷏뺲첬럖컶ꆣ11닆헾럖좨뗄퓶뎤킧펦컒쏇쫗쿈톡좡닎쫽뗄횵:ꛈ=ꛒ=015,ꛑ=0108,ꛁ=0117,ꛂ=0134,ꛎ=017,ꛆ=017,ꛌ=0144,ꛅ=0124ꆣ웤듎,폐yΠks=1122,yΠkp=0161,ꛃ=010873,t=011,e=2ꋙ,뷸뛸뿉좷뚨y=210316ꆣ헢킩돵쪼횵쫇룹뻝훐맺쒿잰뗄쪵볊쟩뿶뛸뚨뗄:내1990쓪늻뇤볛룱볆쯣,2002쓪컒맺뗄맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵(GDP)듳풼캪5117췲틚풪,춬웚뗄헾뢮놾믽샛듳풼쫇4124췲틚풪,쏱볤놾믽샛퓲캪8148췲틚풪ꆣ헽쫇평폚닆헾럖좨(폃t횵듳킡살뫢솿)폫뗘랽헾뢮얬솦쮮욽(폃e횵듳킡살뫢솿)횮볤뗄랴뇈맘쾵,컒쏇볙뚨te=012돉솢뗄쟩뿶쿂,살뾴t좡늻춬뗄횵쪱,쿠펦뗄뺭볃퓶뎤싊ꛃ폐퓵퇹뗄뇤뚯쟷쫆ꆣ뺭맽볆쯣,ꛃ폫tꆢe뗄맘쾵죧쿂뇭쯹쪾:뇭1닆헾럖좨뗄뇈뷏뺲첬킧펦ꛃ010873010917010953010989011018011054011067t011011101120113011401150116e2118211671154114311331125ꆡꆡ뿉볻,평닆헾럖좨쯹닺짺뗄뷡릹킧펦뮹쫇뇈뷏쏷쿔뗄ꆣ떱t=011뇤뚯떽t=0116쪱,뺭볃퓶뎤싊(벴샍뻹닺돶퓶뎤싊)퓲평010873짏짽떽011067,벴짏짽쇋듳풼22%ꆣ헢튻뗣뿉틔횤쏷컒맺뷸탐뗄ꆰ럑룄쮰ꆱ헾닟폐웤믽벫뗄뷡릹탔퓶뎤틢틥ꆣ쯹캽ꆰ럑룄쮰ꆱ쪵훊쫇룸헾뢮뗄럇맦랶탔쫕죫헽쏻,헢퇹뿉복짙틲뗘랽헾뢮뗄싓뛡횮쫖쯹퓬돉뗄퓶뎤쯰쪧ꆣ쯹틔컒쏇폐쏼쳢1ꆣ쏼쳢1:뷸탐닆헾럖좨쪽뗄뷡릹탔룄룯뿉틔닺짺뷏쏷쿔뗄퓶뎤킧펦;뺭볃퓶뎤싊맘폚닆헾럖좨뗄떯탔듳풼캪0143ꆣ21쮰뢺뷡릹뗄퓶뎤킧펦쮰뢺뷡릹뗄몬틥쫇횸춶욷쿠뛔폚쿻럑욷뗄쮰싊쮮욽,튲벴놾욷쿠뛔폚쿻럑욷뗄쮰싊쮮욽ꆣ듓뮻쾵쫽ꛎs=ꛅ뫍ꛆc=ksꛌ뗃횪,죴늿쏅뷡릹sΠks뫍cΠkp쿠뛔뇈뷏컈뚨,퓲쮰뢺뷡릹ꛅ뫍ꛌ뗄뇤kp뚯붫떼훂뮻쾵쫽ꛎ뫍ꛆ뗄뇤뚯ꆣ춬쪱,쮰뢺뷡릹ꛅ뫍ꛌ뗄뇤뚯튲폐웤ퟔ짭뗄횱뷓퓶뎤킧펦ꆣ퓚늿쏅뷡릹놣돖늻뇤뗄쟩뿶쿂,헾뢮헾닟훐뗄쮰뢺뷡릹뇤뚯폫샍뻹뺭볃퓶뎤쯙뛈폐틔쿂뚨솿뗄맘쾵:뇭2쮰뢺뷡릹뗄뇈뷏뺲첬킧펦(뗘랽헾뢮)ꛃ010873010864010854010844010833010822010809ꛅ0124012301220121012001190118뇭3쮰뢺뷡릹뗄뇈뷏뺲첬킧펦(뻓쏱뫍훐퇫헾뢮)ꛃ010873010879010885010891010896010902010908ꛌ0144014301420141014001390138ꋙ뛔폚뗘랽헾뢮뛸퇔,죧맻룸폨뗄램뚨쮰싊맽뗍,웤붫닉좡ꆰ쮰늻ퟣꆢ럑살늹ꆱ뗄닟싔,뷡맻짬돶뗄쫇싓뛡횮쫖;죧맻룸폨뗄램뚨쮰싊뷏캪뫏쫊,웤붫럅쯉쓋훁좡쿻ꆰ싒쫕럑ꆱ탐캪ꆣ평폚틀램헷쮰쯹뢶돶뗄얬솦튪뇈럇램쫕럑뢶돶뗄얬솦뫍럧쿕튪킡뗃뛠,쯹틔컒쏇뿉붫틀램헷쮰뗄얬솦돉놾뇪ힼ뮯캪1,뛸붫뗘랽헾뢮뗄얬솦돉놾뚨틥캪헾뢮쮰럑ퟜ쫕죫폫헷쮰쫕죫뇈횵뗄몯쫽쫇뫏샭뗄ꆣ46
2005쓪뗚6웚ꆡꆡ평짏뇭뿉횪,볓훘뛔뗘랽헾뢮춶뿎쮰뗄ퟶ램믡쳡룟샍뻹닺돶퓶뎤싊;뛸볓훘뛔뻓쏱뫍훐퇫헾뢮뗄춶뿎쮰뗄뻙듫붫믡붵뗍샍뻹닺돶퓶뎤싊ꆣ헢쮵쏷퓚뗘랽헾뢮뾪횧훐,뛔웤춶뾪횧헷쫕맽훘뗄쮰뢺쪱,뿉틖횹웤쿠뛔맽솿뗄놾믽샛,뷸뛸쳡룟샍뻹닺돶퓶뎤싊ꆣ퓚뻓쏱뫍훐퇫헾뢮뗄뾪횧훐,뛔웤춶쿮쒿헷쫕쿠뛔폚웤쿻럑쿮쒿뛸퇔뷏훘뗄쮰뢺쪱,붫믡붵뗍샍뻹닺돶퓶뎤싊ꆣ쮵쏷쏱볤놾믽샛뮹뒦폚쿠뛔늻ퟣꆣ쏼쳢2:복쟡뻓쏱뫍훐퇫헾뢮춶뾪횧뗄쿠뛔쮰뢺,믲볓훘뗘랽헾뢮춶뾪횧뗄쿠뛔쮰뢺,뚼믡폐샻폚샍뻹닺돶퓶뎤싊뗄짏짽,웤떯탔듳풼뚼캪0127ꆣ31뮻쾵쫽뗄퓶뎤킧펦뮻쾵쫽쫇횸춶욷폫쿻럑욷횮볤쿠뮥뮯뗄쪵볊뇈싊,틀뻝춬퇹뗄랽쪽ퟶ돶뮻쾵쫽ꛆꆢꛎ뗄퓶뎤킧펦쒣쓢횵죧쿂뇭쯹쪾ꆣ뇭4뮯쾵쫽ꛆ뗄뇈뷏뺲첬킧펦ꛃ010873010864010855010846010837010828010819ꛆ0170017101720173017401750176뇭5뮯쾵쫽ꛎ뗄뇈뷏뺲첬킧펦ꛃ010873010901010929010958010988011018011048ꛎ0170017101720173017401750176ꆡꆡ뿉볻,샍뻹닺돶퓶뎤싊ꛃ맘폚뮻쾵쫽ꛆ쫇복몯쫽맘쾵,맘폚뮻쾵쫽ꛎ쫇퓶몯쫽뗄맘쾵ꆣ믹폚뮻쾵쫽뗄릹돉,뿉틔뗃횪쏱볤뗄쿻럑욷짺닺늿쏅쿠뛔웤춶욷짺닺늿쏅뛸퇔뒦폚맽솿ힴ첬,믲헟쏱볤춶욷쿠뛔웤쿻럑욷뗄쮰뢺쮮욽뒦폚뇈뷏쟡뗄ힴ첬;뛸헾뢮뗄쿻럑욷짺닺늿쏅쿠뛔웤춶욷짺닺늿쏅뛸퇔퓲뒦폚늻ퟣힴ첬,믲헟헾뢮춶욷쿠뛔웤쿻럑욷뗄쮰뢺쮮욽뒦폚뇈뷏훘뗄ힴ첬ꆣ쏼쳢3:샍뻹닺돶퓶뎤싊ꛃ맘폚뮻쾵쫽ꛆ쫇복몯쫽맘쾵,맘폚뮻쾵쫽ꛎ쫇퓶몯쫽뗄맘쾵;ꛃ맘폚ꛆ뫍ꛎ뗄떯탔듳풼럖뇰캪0178뫍2122ꆣ폃춬퇹뗄냬램,튲뿉틔ퟶ웤쯻닎쫽뗄뇈뷏뺲첬럖컶ꆣ41뇈뷏ퟛ맛샍뻹닺돶퓶뎤싊맘폚헢킩닎쫽뗄떯탔횵,컒쏇뿉틔뾴떽쯼쏇뗄업탲쫇ꛎ(2122)ꆢꛆ(0178)ꆢt뫍e(0143)ꆢꛌ뫍ꛅ(0127)ꆢꆣ뿉볻,뮻쾵쫽ꛆ뫍ꛎ뗄떯탔횵쫇ퟮ쿔훸뗄,뛸쿻럑욷폫춶욷횮볤뗄뮻쾵쫽퓚놾쒣탍훐훷튪뻶뚨폚웳튵뗄벤샸킧싊틔벰쫐뎡뗄뚨볛킧싊(뛾헟릹돉쇋뮻캻쫆)뗈ꆣ튻냣뛸퇔,웳튵뗄벤샸킧싊틔벰쫐뎡뗄뚨볛킧싊쳥쿖쇋웳튵볒뗄횰쓜퓋ퟷힴ뿶,쯹틔웳튵볒퓚뮻쾵쫽듳킡뗄뻶뚨훐쯹냧퇝뗄뺭볃뷇즫쫇맘볼뗄ꆣ뿉볻웳튵볒쫇췆뚯뺭볃퓶뎤뗄훐볡솦솿ꆣ쯄ꆰꆢ럇뗤ꆱ뗄뺭볃돥믷폫헾뢮뗄뾹틟뻈쫐듓쪵횤뷇뛈,컒쏇톡퓱ꆰ럇뗤ꆱ뛔뺭볃뗄돥믷헢룶낸샽ퟷ캪쫽샭쒣탍뗄펦폃뫍볬퇩ꆣ맀볆SARS뛔뻓쏱쿻럑뗄뺻펰쿬쫇복짙2000틚풪ퟳ폒,뛸헾뢮뗄뾹틟뾪횧붫퓶볓400틚풪ퟳ폒ꆣ쇭췢,헾뢮뗄뻈쫐쫖뛎뿉틔쫇쮰럑복쏢(믲늹쳹)ꆢ쮰럑룄룯틔벰붵뗍붻틗뇚생뗈탎쪽,웤훐쮰럑복쏢맀볆붫듯떽100틚풪ퟳ폒,훁폚쮰럑룄룯벰붵뗍붻틗뇚생퓲늻틗췆햹,틲캪헢솽쿮쫇훆뛈탔틲쯘ꆣ퓚쪽(25)훐,뻓쏱쿻럑뗄퓶뎤킧펦틾몬퓚뮻쾵쫽ꛆ=cΠ(ꛌkp)훐,뛸헾뢮쿻럑탔뾪횧틾몬퓚뮻쾵쫽ꛎ=sΠ(ꛅks)훐ꆣ죧맻ꛌ뫍kp볈뚨(쟒볙뚨c=5췲틚풪),c복짙2000틚풪붫떼훂뮻쾵쫽ꛆ붵뗍4%ퟳ폒;죧맻ꛅ뫍ks볈뚨(볙뚨s=1췲틚풪),s퓶볓400틚풪붫떼훂뮻쾵쫽ꛎ짏짽4%ퟳ폒;죧맻헾뢮쮰쫕쫕죫쫇1췲틚풪,퓲쮰럑복쏢100틚풪붫쪹ꛌ횵쿂붵풼1%ꆣ믹폚듋,뿉쒣쓢SARS뗄돥믷킧펦틔벰헾뢮뾹틟폫뻈쫐뗄킧펦ꆣ11돵쪼닎쫽뗄뢳횵47
퓆ꆡ뫗ꆢ쫦ꆡ풪:닆헾럖좨ꆢ뮻쾵쫽폫뺭볃퓶뎤내춨뎣뗄ퟶ램,컒쏇좡ꛈ=ꛒ=015,ꛑ=0108;믹폚훐맺뗄맺쟩,좡t=011,e=2,ꛆ=ꛎ=017;틀뫘믍뻕(1992)췆쯣뗄놾쫽뻝,내늻뇤볛룱볆쯣,뿉뗃yΠks=1122,yΠkp=0161(풼폐kp=2ks);평폚ꛌ폫ꛆꆢꛅ폫ꛎ뗄맘쾵(c=015y,s=011y),뿉췆쯣돶ꛌ=0144,ꛅ=0124ꆣ훁폚ꛃ뗄돵쪼횵,컒쏇좡2003쓪뗚튻벾뛈뗄샍뻹닺돶퓶뎤싊,룃벾뛈뗄튻냣닺돶퓶뎤싊룟듯919%ꆣ캪쇋뮻쯣돉샍뻹닺돶퓶뎤싊,탨튪ퟶ(쪵볊)샍뻹닺돶퓶쯙폫(쪵볊)튻냣닺돶퓶쯙뗄믘맩맘쾵ꆣ룹뻝춳볆쓪본뗄쫽뻝,내1990쓪늻뇤볛룱캪믹ힼ탞헽쿠펦GDP(1991ꆪ2001쓪)뗄쫽횵,뗃떽죧쿂춳볆믘맩맘쾵:GGDP(L)=-0101369+1102047GGDPꆡꆡꆡꆡR2=019939(-5162)(38141)(26)ꆡꆡ웤훐,GGDP(L)캪샍뻹닺돶퓶쯙,GGDP캪튻냣닺돶퓶쯙ꆣ틀짏쪽뿉뗃2003쓪뗚튻벾뛈뗄샍뻹닺돶퓶쯙캪8173%ꆣ맘폚닎쫽ꛁ뫍ꛂ뗄맀횵,컒쏇룹뻝ꆶ훐맺뷰죚쓪본:2002ꆷ뗚666튳뗄쫽뻝살ퟶ믘맩ꆣ뻍좫짧믡만뚨닺춶살풴살뾴,놾컄훐뗄kp펦룃몭룇ꆰ맺볒풤쯣뗄뷰ꆢ샻폃췢ꆢퟔ돯뫍웤쯻뷰ꆱ죽쿮쓚죝,쪣폠뗄ꆰ맺쓚듻뿮ꆱ튻쿮펦맩퓚놾컄훐뗄ks쏻쿂ꆣ헢퇹,춨맽뛔풭쪼쫽뻝(1991ꆪ2001쓪)ퟶ늻뇤볛룱뒦샭ꆢ샛볓뒦샭틔벰샍뻹뮯뒦샭,뿉뗃떽kp뫍ks뗄탲쇐;좻뫳ퟶ샍뻹닺돶(gdp)맘폚kp뫍ks뗄뛔쫽뮯믘맩,뗃떽:log(gdp)=412347+011689log(kp)+013415log(ks)ꆡꆡꆡꆡR2=019996(63135)(3151)(7102)(27)ꆡꆡ평듋뗃떽ꛁ=0117,ꛂ=0134ꆣퟮ뫳쫇맘폚ꛃ뗄돵쪼횵뗄맀볆ꆣ붫틔짏닎쫽뗄쫽횵듺죫쪽(25)훐,뿉뗃y=210316ꆣ헢퇹,돵쪼닎쫽뗄뢳횵뻍췪돉쇋ꆣ21SARS뗄돥믷킧펦SARS뛔뺭볃뗄돥믷늿캻훷튪쫇뻓쏱쿻럑탐캪틔벰쿻럑풤웚,벴쳥쿖캪c뗄뇤뚯틔벰ꛈ뗄뇤뚯ꆣ평짏컄뗄맀볆뿉횪,2003쓪뻓쏱쿻럑붫복짙2000틚풪ퟳ폒,헢붫떼훂뮻쾵쫽ꛆퟜ쿂붵풼4%;뛔쿻럑풤웚뗄펰쿬쫇닎쫽ꛈ뗄짏짽,웤몬틢쫇뻓쏱뿧쪱쳦듺떯탔뗄뇤듳,헢뿉평맣뚫랢짺뗄쟀릺뎱ꆢ맣듳틟쟸뗄릺뎵죈뗃떽ퟴ횤ꆣ뻍쎿룶벾뛈뛸퇔,웤쿻럑믮뚯쯵복솿ꆢ쿻럑풤웚뇤뚯솿쫇늻춬뗄;쿔좻,뗚뛾벾뛈쯹쫜돥믷ퟮ훘,뗚죽ꆢ뗚쯄벾뛈붫틀듎뗝복;뻝듋,뿉룸쎿룶벾뛈뗄닎쫽뢳폨쿠펦뗄횵죧뇭6쯹쪾ꆣ뇭6SARS뗄돥믷킧펦ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ벾뛈닎쫽ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뗚튻벾뛈뗚뛾벾뛈뗚죽벾뛈뗚쯄벾뛈욽ꆡ뻹뮻쾵쫽ꛆ01700016840169201696쿻럑풤웚ꛈ01500019000180001700샍뻹닺돶퓶쯙ꛃ010873010681010702010739010749ꆡꆡ춬쪱,틀쪽(25)뿉볆쯣돶쿠펦뗄샍뻹닺돶퓶쯙뗄쒣쓢횵ꆣ붫쎿룶벾뛈뗄샍뻹닺돶퓶쯙ퟶ욽뻹뮯뒦샭,뗃떽ꛃ=010749ꆣ볙죧2003쓪뗄쪵볊샍뚯춶죫퓶뎤016%,퓲좫쓪뗄GDP퓶뎤싊횻쓜듯떽811%ퟳ폒ꆣꆡꆡ31헾뢮뗄뾹틟뻈쫐헾뢮뮨퓚뾹틟짏뗄럑폃룟듯400틚풪ퟳ폒,춬쪱폖춨맽쮰럑복쏢100틚풪믡쪹닎쫽ꛅ(쿠뛔쮰싊)쿂붵1%ퟳ폒,솽쿮뫏볆붫쪹ꛎ퓚룷룶벾뛈뗄뢳횵틔벰쒣쓢뷡맻죧뇭7쯹쪾ꆣ춬퇹,붫벾뛈샍뻹닺돶퓶쯙ퟷ욽뻹뮯뒦샭,뗃떽ꛃ=010866,볙죧2003쓪뗄쪵볊샍뚯춶죫퓶뎤016%,퓲좫쓪뗄GDP퓶뎤죔좻뿉틔듯떽912%ퟳ폒ꆣ48
2005쓪뗚6웚뇭7헾뢮뗄뾹틟뻈쫐ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ벾뛈닎쫽ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뗚튻벾뛈뗚뛾벾뛈뗚죽벾뛈뗚쯄벾뛈욽ꆡ뻹뮻쾵쫽ꛆ01700016840169201696쿻럑풤웚ꛈ01500019000180001700뮻쾵쫽ꛎ01700017160170801704샍뻹닺돶퓶쯙ꛃ010873010841010857010892010866ꆡꆡ41돥믷폫뻈쫐뗄뇈뷏뻍훐맺뺭볃쿖ힴ뛸퇔,샍뻹닺돶퓶쯙맘폚뮻쾵쫽ꛆ쫇복몯쫽맘쾵,뛸맘폚뮻쾵쫽ꛎ퓲돊퓶몯쫽맘쾵ꆣ헢뇭쏷SARS쯹떼훂뗄쿻럑복짙뛔뺭볃퓶뎤닺짺쇋뛠훖킧펦:튻랽쏦쿻럑복짙폐샻폚샍뻹닺돶퓶쯙뗄쳡룟,쇭튻랽쏦쿻럑복짙튲붵뗍쇋샍뚯뗄퓶쯙,웤ퟛ뫏킧펦붫쫓뻟쳥쟩뿶뛸뚨;늻맽,떥뻍SARS뛔쿻럑뗄돥믷뛸퇔,웤뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄ퟛ뫏킧펦붫쫇뢺쏦뗄ꆣ헾뢮뾹틟뻈쫐뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄펰쿬훷튪쳥쿖퓚뮻쾵쫽ꛎ뗄뇤뚯쯹틽훂뗄퓶뎤킧펦짏ꆣ맘폚헢튻뗣,헾뢮횧돶짏짽튻랽쏦쳡룟쇋샍뻹닺돶뗄퓶쯙,튻랽쏦튲폐샻폚샍뚯뗄퓶쯙;쯹틔,헾뢮뾹틟뻈쫐뻙듫닺짺쇋쏷쿔뗄퓶뎤킧펦,벴듓811%뿉틔짏짽떽912%ꆣ쇭췢,틔짏쯹ퟶ뗄쒣쓢럖컶뷶뻖쿞퓚SARS뛔뇤솿cꆢs뫍닎쫽ꛈ뗄펰쿬짏ꆣ쫂쪵짏,SARS튲뿉쓜뛔웤쯼뇤솿ꆢ닎쫽닺짺펰쿬,늻맽,놾컄죏캪SARS뛔뺭볃뗄돥믷늿캻훷튪쳥쿖퓚cꆢs뫍ꛈ짏ꆣ쯹틔횻ퟷ쇋듖싔뗄쒣쓢ꆣ컥ꆢퟜꆡ뷡ퟛ짏쯹쫶,놾컄릹붨쇋튻룶볈냼삨맦쒣틲쯘ꆢ뷡릹틲쯘,튲냼삨탨쟳ꆢ릩룸ꆢ뗷뿘뗈닣쏦뗄벯돉탍뺭볃퓶뎤쒣탍ꆣ뛸냑헢킩뮷뷚맡뒮웰살뗄쫇뮻쾵쫽ꛆ뫍ꛎ,춬쪱뮻쾵쫽튲쫇쪵쳥뺭볃폫뷰죚뺭볃뮥뚯뗄얦뷡ꆣ쯹틔놾쒣탍뗄튻듳쳘뗣쫇틽죫쇋뮻쾵쫽ꆣ춨맽뛔쒣탍뗄볆솿뫍쒣쓢,놾컄뗃돶틔쿂뷡싛:1.뷸탐ꆰ럑룄쮰ꆱ쪽뗄뷡릹탔룄룯뿉틔닺짺뷏쏷쿔뗄샍뻹닺돶퓶뎤킧펦,헢쫇틲캪룸럇맦랶탔쫕죫헽쏻,뿉틔복짙틲헾뢮뗄싓뛡횮쫖쯹퓬돉뗄쯰쪧ꆣ2.퓚쿖뷗뛎,복쟡쏱볤춶뗄쿠뛔쮰뢺믲볓훘헾뢮춶뗄쿠뛔쮰뢺,뚼믡폐샻폚샍뻹닺돶퓶쯙뗄쳡룟ꆣ3.샍뻹닺돶퓶쯙맘폚뮻쾵쫽뗄떯탔횵쫇뻞듳뗄,뻝듋뿉틔췆횪웳튵볒뻓폚뺭볃퓶뎤뗄쫠얦뗘캻ꆣ춨맽뛔SARS돥믷뗄쒣쓢,뗃떽:뛔뺭볃뗄돥믷늿캻훷튪쫇뻓쏱쿻럑쮮욽뗄복짙뫍쿻럑풤웚뗄뇤뚯;죧맻쎻폐헾뢮뗄뾹틟뻈쫐뗄퓶뎤킧펦,2003쓪뗄뺭볃퓶뎤싊횻쓜듯떽811%ퟳ폒ꆣ2.헾뢮뗄뾹틟뻈쫐믮뚯뿉듸살튻룶냙럖뗣뗄퓶뎤킧펦,벴뿉쪹2003쓪뗄뺭볃퓶뎤싊듯떽912%ퟳ폒ꆣ닎뾼컄쿗돂뾹뗈,2003ꆶ:닆헾벯좨폫뗘랽탐캪뇤뮯ꆷꆶ,뺭볃톧ꆷ(벾뾯)뗚2뻭뗚1웚ꆣ랶췟쳘,2002ꆶ:릫릲맜샭뗄볛횵룹풴ꆷꆶ,뺭볃짧믡쳥훆뇈뷏ꆷ뗚4웚ꆣ랮쪤룹뗈,2002ꆶ:훐맺뺭볃퓶뎤뫍뷡릹뗷헻ꆷꆶ,뺭볃톧ꆷ(벾뾯)뗚2뻭뗚1웚ꆣ룟엠폂,2002ꆶ:쮰쫕뗄뫪맛쫓튰ꆷꆶ,쮰컱퇐뺿ꆷ뗚2ꆢ3웚ꆣ릨쇹쳃뗈,2002ꆶ:닆헾헾닟폫볛룱쮮욽뗄뻶뚨ꆷꆶ,뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ뗚2웚ꆣ믆짙낲뗈,2002ꆶ:컒맺ꆰ럑룄쮰ꆱ뗄훆뛈뺭볃톧럖컶ꆷꆶ,쮰컱퇐뺿ꆷ뗚10웚ꆣ49
퓆ꆡ뫗ꆢ쫦ꆡ풪:닆헾럖좨ꆢ뮻쾵쫽폫뺭볃퓶뎤볖뾵뗈,2002ꆶ:쿘쿧닆헾뷢삧폫닆헾쳥훆뒴탂ꆷꆶ,뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ뗚2웚ꆣ샮뿋,2003ꆶ:맬맺볒뗄믺훆탔뢯냜:튻룶튻냣뻹뫢쒣탍ꆷꆶ,뺭볃짧믡쳥훆뇈뷏ꆷ뗚1웚ꆣ쇵짐쾣,2002ꆶ:릫릲횧돶랶캧:럖컶폫뷧뚨ꆷꆶ,뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ뗚6웚ꆣ쮹뗙룱샻듄,2003ꆶ:헽쪽뫍럇헽쪽뗄훆뛈ꆷꆶ,뺭볃짧믡쳥훆뇈뷏ꆷ뗚1웚ꆣ키?뗈,2003ꆶ:닆헾럖좨뿲볜쿂뗄닆헾헾닟뫍믵뇒헾닟ꆷꆶ,뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ뗚1웚ꆣ퇏뫣뗈,2002ꆶ:떱듺쫕죫럖엤샭싛뗄탂랢햹ꆷꆶ,뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ뗚8웚ꆣ퇖삤,2002ꆶ:닆헾횧돶뗄샭싛뿲볜벰잰퇘컊쳢ꆷꆶ,닆헾퇐뺿ꆷ뗚7웚ꆣ헅쟥,2002ꆶ:닆헾횧돶뫍뺭볃뺰웸횸뇪뚯첬뻹뫢맘쾵퇐뺿ꆷꆶ,닆헾퇐뺿ꆷ뗚11웚ꆣ헅쿎,2003ꆶ:맺햮쫊뛈맦쒣폫컒맺쪵쪩복쏢쮰쫕헾닟뗄뿉탐탔ꆷꆶ,쮰컱퇐뺿ꆷ뗚3웚ꆣArrow,..Kurz,1970,PublicInvestment,,D.,1989,IsGovernmentSpendingProductive?JournalofMonetaryEconomics,23:177ꆪ,.,1990,GovernmentSpendinginaSimpleModeofEndogenousGrowth,JournalofPoliticalEconomy98,S103ꆪ,R.,1993,ThreadingtheFiscalLabyrinth:SomeIssuesinFiscalDecentralization,NationalTaxJournalXLVI,207ꆪ,J.,1996,FiscalFederalismandCapitalAccumulation,Mimeo,,C.,1985,EfficientTaxationinaStylizedModelofIntertemporalGeneralEquilibrium,InternationalEconomicReview26,451ꆪ,,1998,FiscalDecentralizationandEconomicGrowth:ACross2countryStudy,JournalofUrbanEconomics43,244ꆪ,,2002,OptimalTaxationandIntergovernmentalTransferinaDynamicModelwithMultipleLevelsofGovernment,JournalofEconomicDynamicsandControl26:1975ꆪ,,2003,Taxes,FederalTransfer,GovernmentAccumulation,andEndogeneousGrowth,AnnalsofEconomicsandFinance4(1).Jones,L.,Manuelli,,P.,1993,OptimalTaxationinModelsofEndogenousGrowth,JournalofPoliticalEconomy101,485ꆪ,R.,1990,Supply2sideEconomics:AnAnalyticalReview,OxfordEconomicPapers42,293ꆪ,,N.,1983,OpticalFiscalandMonetaryPolicyinanEconomywithoutCapital,JournalofMonetaryEconomics12,55ꆪ,W.,1993,FiscalDecentralizationandEconomicDevelopment,NationalTaxJournalXLVI,237ꆪ,H.,1996,Taxes,FederalGrants,LucasPublicSpendingandGrowth,JournalofUrbanEconomics39,303ꆪ,TransformCoefficientandEconomicGrowthYunHe&ShuYuan(SchoolofETM,ZhejiangSci2techUniversity;LiangnanCollege,SYSUniversity)Abstract:Undertheclassicalgrowthmodelandendogenousgrowthmodel,,structurefactor,,thepaperconstructsamodelwhichincludesscalefactorandstructurefactor,entityeconomyandfinanceeconomy,:%:FiscalDecentralization;TransformCoefficient;EconomicGrowth;SARSImpactJELClassification:E200,H300,O400(퓰죎뇠벭:뷰돉커)(킣뛔:즽)50
