ꆾ컄쿗ퟛ쫶ꆿ믣싊뒫뗝킧펦퇐뺿움쫶죙ꆡ퇒ꆡ듔ꆡ틙햪ꆡ튪:믣싊뒫뗝킧펦쫇맺볊뺭볃톧뷧뗄퇐뺿훘뗣횮튻ꆣ놾컄듓믹뒡샭싛ꆢ뒫뗝돌뛈ꆢ펰쿬틲쯘ꆢ헾닟몬틥쯄룶랽쏦뛔틑폐컄쿗뷸탐쇋쫡샭뫍움쫶,뷡싛랢쿖,믣싊뗄뒫뗝킧펦쫇늻췪좫뗄,늢쟒늻춬맺볒ꆢ늻춬탐튵ꆢ늻춬쪱웚뗄믣싊뒫뗝킧펦폐쯹닮틬,헢훖닮틬뗄훷튪풭틲쫇돶뿚짌뗄쫐뎡쫆솦뫍뷸뿚맺맺쓚짌욷뛔뷸뿚욷뗄쳦듺쓜솦폐쯹늻춬ꆣ쇭췢,놾컄룹뻝컒맺쪵볊쟩뿶쳡돶쇋퇐뺿죋쏱뇒믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄럖컶쫓뷇,죏캪쿂튻늽뗄퇐뺿펦믹폚컒맺늻췪좫뺺헹뗄쫐뎡뷡릹뛔쿖폐쒣탍뫍랽램뷸탐뗷헻,뷸뛸ힼ좷에뛏죋쏱뇒믣싊뇤뚯닺짺뗄펰쿬ꆣ맘볼듊:믣싊뒫뗝ꆡ틲쫐뚨볛ꆡ늻췪좫뺺헹훐맺뺭볃퓚룄룯뾪럅뗄맽돌훐좡뗃쇋뿬쯙랢햹뫍뻙쫀훵쒿뗄돉뻍,쯦ퟅ뺭볃좫쟲뮯뗄늽랥풽살풽뿬,컒맺뗄뺭볃랢햹폫쫀뷧룷훷튪뺭볃쳥횮볤뗄솪쾵폺볓뷴쏜ꆣ2005쓪7퓂,훐맺죋쏱틸탐탻늼쪵탐믣싊쳥훆룄룯,죋쏱뇒믣싊늻퓙뚤힡쏀풪,뛸쫇룄캪뚤힡튻삺ퟓ믵뇒,춬쪱퓚쫐뎡릩쟳뗄믹뒡짏뷸탐뗷뷚,죋쏱뇒믣싊훆뛈평뎤웚틔살뗄만뚨믣싊훆뇤돉쇋폐맜샭뗄뢡뚯믣싊훆뛈ꆣퟔ듋,죋쏱뇒믣싊뗷헻믺훆룼볓뢻폚떯탔,믣싊뇤뚯쟷쫆훰붥퓶잿,믣싊뛔맺쓚뺭볃랢햹뗄펰쿬튲훰붥컼틽쇋풽살풽뛠뗄힢틢솦ꆣ웤훐,죋쏱뇒믣싊뇤뚯뛔볛룱쮮욽뗄펰쿬벴믣싊뒫뗝킧펦돉캪쇋튻룶횵뗃맘힢뗄컊쳢ꆣ믣싊뒫뗝킧펦(exchangeratepass2througheffect)횸뗄쫇쏻틥믣싊뇤뚯뛔튻맺볛룱쮮욽뗄펰쿬돌뛈ꆣGoldberg뫍Knetter(1997)붫믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뚨틥캪ꆰ평폚뷸뿚맺뫍돶뿚맺믣싊뇤뚯냙럖횮튻쯹떼훂뗄틔뷸뿚맺떱뗘믵뇒뇪볛뗄뷸뿚욷볛룱뇤뮯뗄냙럖뇈ꆱꆣ헢쫇튻룶쿁틥뗄뚨틥,뷶횸믣싊뇤뚯뛔뷸뿚욷볛룱뗄펰쿬ꆣ튻냣죏캪,뷸뿚풭닄쇏볛룱뗄뇤뚯믡떼훂맺쓚웳튵뗄짺닺돉놾쯦횮뇤뮯,폚쫇믣싊뇤뚯뗄펰쿬뮹믡볌탸뒫뗝훁짺닺헟볛룱뫍쿻럑헟볛룱뗈튻냣컯볛쮮욽ꆣ틲듋,쿖폐뗄훷튪컄쿗믹놾닉폃맣틥뗄뚨틥,죏캪믣싊뒫뗝킧펦횸뗄쫇쏻틥믣싊뇤뚯뛔튻맺쎳틗욷뗄뷸돶뿚볛룱뫍맺쓚컯볛쮮욽뗄펰쿬돌뛈ꆣ믣싊뫍볛룱쮮욽뗄맘쾵튻횱뚼쫇맺볊뺭볃톧쇬폲횵뗃맘힢뗄컊쳢ꆣퟔ듓늼샗뛙즭쇖쳥쾵췟뷢횮뫳,쫀뷧룷훷튪뺭볃쳥쿈뫳럅웺만뚨믣싊훆,뛸쪵탐뢡뚯믣싊훆,믣싊늨뚯뛔맺볊쫕횧뫍볛룱쮮욽뗄펰쿬뫍뒫뗝ퟷ폃컼틽쇋훚뛠톧헟뗄맣랺맘힢ꆣ20쫀볍80쓪듺,퓚쏀풪믣싊듳럹늨뚯뗄쳵볾쿂,쏀맺뗄뷸뿚볛룱늢캴쫜떽첫듳펰쿬,헢틽랢쇋뫜뛠톧헟뛔믣싊뒫뗝쾵쫽뗄맘힢뫍첽쳖ꆣ20쫀볍쒩웚,탭뛠릤튵뮯맺볒뷨훺컈뚨탔뗄믵뇒헾닟틖훆쇋춨믵엲헍풤웚,쪹춨믵엲헍싊쿔훸쿂붵,믣싊뒫뗝킧펦춬쪱튲뒦폚훰붥쿂붵뗄쟷쫆,폚쫇뺭볃톧볒뾪쪼맘힢믣싊뒫뗝뫍춨믵엲헍틔벰믵뇒헾닟횮볤뗄쿠뮥ퟷ폃뫍펰쿬믺훆,믣싊뒫뗝퓙뛈돉캪톧뷧뗄퇐뺿훘뗣ꆣ튻ꆢ떱잰폐맘믣싊뒫뗝퇐뺿뗄뷸햹움쫶뛔폚믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄퇐뺿듳쳥뺭샺쇋틔쿂쯄룶뷗뛎:뗚튻,쪹폃뺭뗤뗄뺭볃샭싛릹붨믣싊뇤뚯뫍컯볛쮮욽횮볤뗄솪쾵,틔듋ퟷ캪퇐뺿믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄샭싛믹뒡;뗚뛾,샻폃룷룶맺볒뫍탐튵뗄쫽뻝퇩횤믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄돌뛈벰웤컈뚨탔;뗚죽,듓샭싛뫍쪵횤솽룶랽쏦럖컶펰쿬믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄훖훖틲쯘;뗚쯄,믹폚믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뛔믵뇒헾닟뫍믣싊훆뛈뷸탐퓙죏쪶,늢럖컶헢킩헾닟뫍믣싊뒫뗝횮볤뗄쿠뮥펰쿬ꆣ쿂쏦컒쏇뻍듓헢쯄룶랽쏦뛔쿠맘컄쿗뷸탐ퟜ뷡뫍움쫶ꆣ(튻)믹뒡샭싛퇐뺿:릺싲솦욽볛뫍틲쫐뚨볛뛔믣싊뒫뗝뗄퇐뺿뿉틔ힷ쯝떽튻볛뚨싉뫍릺싲솦욽볛샭싛ꆣ늻싛쫇퓧웚뛔믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄샭싛뫍쪵횤퇐뺿,뮹쫇뛔뫪맛늨뚯틲쯘뫍캢맛웳튵탐캪뗄첽쳖,쓋훁뛔믣싊뒫뗝킧펦컈뚨탔뗄볬퇩,쯤좻룷ퟔ뗄퇐뺿ퟅ퇛뗣늻뺡쿠춬,떫쫇뚼붫튻볛뚨싉뫍릺싲솦욽볛ퟷ캪믹놾뗄샭싛볜릹ꆣ튻볛뚨싉뗄몬틥쫇:떱쎳틗쫇뾪ꆪ67ꆪ
럅뗄늢쟒붻틗돉놾캪쇣쪱,벴퓚튻룶췪좫뺺헹뗄쎳틗쫐뎡짏,춬퇹뗄믵컯컞싛퓚뫎뗘쿺쫛,웤볛룱뚼뇘좻쿠춬ꆣ믣싊뗄뻸뛔릺싲솦욽볛샭싛뻍붨솢퓚튻볛뚨싉볙짨돉솢뗄믹뒡짏,늢붫튻볛뚨싉듓떥룶짌욷췆맣떽쯹폐짌욷ꆣ쿠뛔릺싲솦욽볛샭싛퓲퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏럅쯉볙짨,웤죏캪믣싊뗄뇤뚯훷튪좡뻶폚솽맺춨믵엲헍싊뗄닮틬ꆣ웰돵뺭볃톧헟뛔믣싊뗄퇐뺿훷튪쫇퓚볙짨뻸뛔믲쿠뛔릺싲솦욽볛돉솢뗄쳵볾쿂살뷸탐,떫쫇평듋뛸뇘좻닺짺뗄튻룶컊쳢뻍쫇:릺싲솦욽볛샭싛믲튻볛뚨싉쫇럱ퟜ쫇돉솢?듸ퟅ헢퇹뗄틉컊,Richardson(1978)틔벰Giovannini(1989)뗈톧헟럖뇰쪹폃늻춬뗄쫽뻝뫍랽램뛔릺싲솦욽볛뷸탐쇋퇩횤,뚼룸돶쇋뢺쏦뗄뷡맻,쮵쏷믣싊뇤뚯뛔컯볛뗄뒫뗝늢럇쫇췪좫뗄ꆣ평폚릺싲솦욽볛샭싛뗃늻떽쫽뻝짏뗄횧돖,뫜뛠퇐뺿헟뾪쪼럖컶쿖쪵떱훐떼훂믣싊뒫뗝늻췪좫뗄틲쯘,웤훐Krugman(1987)쫇ퟮ뻟폐듺뇭탔뗄퇐뺿,쯻훘뗣럖컶쇋닺욷닮틬뛔믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄펰쿬,죏캪웳튵닮뇰뚨볛닟싔뫍볛룱볓돉탐캪쫇떼훂믣싊뒫뗝킧펦늻컈뚨뫍늻췪좫뗄훷튪틲쯘,슢뛏뺺헹헟쏦쇙믣싊뇤뚯쪱뗄ퟮ폅닟싔뻍쫇룹뻝믣싊뇤뚯뗷헻돉놾볓돉,떼훂믣싊뇤뚯뛔뷸뿚볛룱뗄뒫뗝킧펦붵뗍ꆣKrugman붫슢뛏뺺헹뎧짌평폚믣싊뇤뚯틽훂뗄돉놾볓돉뗷헻탐캪돆캪틲쫐뚨볛(pricing2to2market,PTM),헢돉캪쇋듓캢맛닣쏦퇐뺿믣싊뒫뗝뗄샭싛믹뒡,벴틲쫐뚨볛샭싛ꆣ(뛾)뒫뗝돌뛈퇐뺿:쾵쫽뫍컈뚨탔1ꆢ믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄듳킡쒿잰틑폐뷏뛠톧헟뛔믣싊뒫뗝쾵쫽뗄듳킡뷸탐쪵횤퇐뺿볬퇩ꆣ웰돵,퓚20쫀볍80쓪듺,닺튵ퟩ횯샭싛ꆢ늻췪좫뺺헹샭싛뫍햽싔쎳틗샭싛뗄쪢탐붫믣싊뒫뗝킧맻뗄볬퇩틽죫떽캢맛닣쏦,쪵횤퇐뺿뛠쫽붫믣싊뾴ퟷ쫇튻룶췢짺뇤솿,늢룹뻝쒳훖닺욷믲헟쒳룶닺튵뗄쫽뻝살뷸탐럖컶,ퟅ퇛폚믣싊뇤뚯뛔쳘뚨닺욷볛룱뗄펰쿬,뛸늻쫇뛔튻냣컯볛쮮욽뗄ퟜ쳥펰쿬ꆣ평폚떱쪱쏀죕쎳틗솿뷏듳,뫜뛠퇐뺿믹폚쏀죕볤쎳틗쫽뻝살뷸탐ꆣ뫳살,쪵횤퇐뺿뗄훘뗣훰붥맽뛉떽믣싊뇤뚯뛔뷸돶뿚짌욷볛룱ퟜ쮮욽뫍맺쓚튻냣컯볛쮮욽뗄펰쿬짏살,뛠닉폃룷샠볛룱횸쫽쫽뻝뷸탐볬퇩ꆣMarston(1990)룹뻝1980-1987쓪볤죕놾늿럖탐튵볛룱횸쫽뗄퓂뛈쫽뻝쪵횤볬퇩쇋쏀풪뛒죕풪믣싊뇤뚯뛔볛룱뗄펰쿬,뷡맻랢쿖믣싊뇤뚯뛔헢킩탐튵볛룱뗄욽뻹펰쿬풼캪50%ꆣGagnon뫍Knetter(1995)퓲쫕벯쇋쏀맺ꆢ펢맺ꆢ죕놾뫍뗂맺쯄맺웻뎵탐튵뗄쫽뻝,볬퇩쇋믣싊뇤뚯뛔헢쯄룶맺볒웻뎵돶뿚볛룱뗄펰쿬,퇐뺿랢쿖믣싊뗄뒫뗝킧펦풼캪30%ꆣ뷸죫21쫀볍횮뫳,뛔탂탋릤튵맺뫍튻킩랢햹훐맺볒뗄맘힢풽살풽뛠ꆣKorhonen뫍Wachtel(2006)샻폃뛀솪쳥맺볒뗄쫽뻝볬퇩쇋믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄쾵쫽ꆢ맦쒣뫍훍뫳탔,퇐뺿랢쿖,뛀솪쳥맺볒뗄믣싊뒫뗝킧펦웕뇩뇈뷏듳,훍뫳훜웚튲뇈뷏뛌,춨뎣믣싊뇤뚯믡퓚1쓪쓚믹놾랴펳떽맺쓚볛룱뗄뇤뚯훐ꆣFuentes(2007)톡좡낢룹춢ꆢ훇샻ꆢ룧싗뇈퇇뫍컚삭맧쯄룶랢햹훐맺볒ퟷ캪퇐뺿뛔쿳,뛔웤룷ퟔ뗄믣싊뒫뗝킧펦퓚늻춬쪱볤훜웚쓚뷸탐볬퇩,뷡맻랢쿖,욽뻹살쮵헢킩맺볒뗄믣싊뇤뚯퓚1룶벾뛈쓚뛔뷸뿚욷볛룱뗄펰쿬쾵쫽캪75%,퓚1쓪쓚뛔뷸뿚욷볛룱뗄펰쿬벸뫵뿉틔듯떽100%ꆣퟜ쳥뛸퇔,뻸듳뛠쫽퇐뺿뚼죏캪믣싊뇤뚯뛔볛룱뗄펰쿬쫇늻췪좫뗄,뛸쟒듓쪵횤퇐뺿뷡맻살뾴,늻춬뗄맺볒뻟폐늻춬뗄믣싊뒫뗝킧펦,Camp뫍Goldberg(2005)죏캪,뻟쳥떽쒳룶닺튵쪱,믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄맺뇰닮틬럇뎣쏷쿔,랢듯맺볒뗄믣싊뒫뗝쾵쫽춨뎣튪킡폚랢햹훐맺볒ꆣ2ꆢ믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄컈뚨탔20쫀볍90쓪듺,뫜뛠맺볒돶쿖쇋놾뇒듳럹뇡횵뫍뗍춨믵엲헍싊늢듦뗄쿖쿳,쪹뗃헢킩맺볒쓜릻퓚룄짆쎳틗쫕횧뗄춬쪱뇜쏢쪵볊쫕죫쯰쪧뫍춨믵엲헍톹솦ꆣ헢틢캶ퟅ믣싊뇤뚯뗄횧돶뮻킧펦뇤뗃룼볓늻췪좫,헢컼틽쇋뫜뛠톧헟뗄맘힢,쯻쏇쫔춼춨맽퇐뺿믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뛔짏쫶쿖쿳ퟶ돶뺭볃톧틢틥짏뗄뷢쫍ꆣ헢킩퇐뺿뗄훘뗣쫇믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄컈뚨탔,벴쪵횤볬퇩믣싊뒫뗝킧펦쫇럱쟷폚쿂붵ꆣ웰돵튻킩퇐뺿헟죏캪,믣싊뒫뗝킧펦쪵훊짏쫇뇈뷏컈뚨뗄,떫쫇뫳살뫜뛠퇐뺿뚼룸돶쇋쿠랴뗄틢볻,죏캪쯦ퟅ쪱볤뗄뇤뮯,믣싊뗄뒫뗝킧펦튲퓚룄뇤,믣싊뇤뚯뛔뷸뿚볛룱뫍쿻럑헟볛룱뗄뒫뗝킧펦뚼돊쿖돶쿂붵쟷쫆ꆣMcCarthy(2000)샻폃1976-1998쓪9룶릤튵뮯맺볒뗄쫽뻝뇈뷏쇋늻춬쪱웚뗄믣싊뒫뗝킧펦,퇐뺿랢쿖,퓚퇹놾웚쓚,1982쓪잰뗄믣싊뒫뗝쾵쫽튪뇈웤뫳뗄쾵쫽룼룟,튲벴믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뒦폚쿂붵쟷쫆ꆣSekine(2006)ꆢIhrig(2006)뫍Marazzi(2007)튲뗃돶쇋춬퇹뗄뷡맻ꆣꆪ68ꆪ
(죽)펰쿬틲쯘퇐뺿:캢맛쫐뎡뷡릹뫍뫪맛뾪럅돌뛈1ꆢ캢맛쫐뎡뷡릹뛔믣싊뒫뗝뗄펰쿬틲쫐뚨볛샭싛쮵쏷,돶뿚맺뎧짌퓚뷸뿚맺쫐뎡짏뗄슢뛏쓜솦횱뷓ퟳ폒믣싊뛔뷸뿚욷볛룱뗄뒫뗝킧펦ꆣ믹폚헢튻뗣,뫜뛠톧헟붫쪵횤럖컶뗄붹뗣럅퓚쓇킩뛔캢맛쫐뎡뷡릹닺짺펰쿬뗄틲쯘짏,뇈죧맺쓚짌욷뛔뷸뿚욷뗄쳦듺쓜솦ꆢ돶뿚짌퓚뷸뿚맺뗄쫐뎡럝뛮ꆢ쫐뎡벯훐뛈ꆢ뷸뿚욷뗄탨쟳떯탔틔벰웳튵뗄뚨볛닟싔뗈뗈ꆣ헢킩틲쯘뻶뚨쇋웳튵틲쫐뚨볛뗄쓜솦,틲뛸뛔믣싊뒫뗝킧펦닺짺훘튪뗄펰쿬ꆣDornbusch(1987)죏캪믣싊뒫뗝킧펦쫜떽틔쿂솽샠펰쿬:뗚튻,뷸뿚맺맺쓚쫐뎡짏뗄닺욷폫뷸뿚욷뗄닮틬뮯뫍쳦듺돌뛈풽듳,믣싊뒫뗝풽쏷쿔;뗚뛾,돶뿚짌퓚뷸뿚맺뗄쫐뎡럝뛮풽듳,볛룱웧쫓뗄돌뛈풽룟,믣싊뒫뗝풽쏷쿔ꆣHooper뫍Mann(1989)퇐뺿랢쿖,믣싊뒫뗝킧펦좡뻶폚뷸뿚욷뫍맺쓚짌욷뗄닮틬뮯돌뛈,틔벰맺췢돶뿚짌퓚맺쓚쫐뎡뗄럝뛮,헢횱뷓펰쿬쇋쫐뎡뺺헹돌뛈ꆣ죧맻닮틬뮯돌뛈풽룟,퓲쿠뮥쳦듺탔풽킡,맺췢돶뿚짌캬돖샻죳볓돉뗄쓜솦튲뻍풽잿,폚쫇믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뻍풽쏷쿔ꆣYang(1997)뗄럖컶훘뗣쫇뷸뿚맺쫐뎡짏뗄뗄탨쟳볛룱떯탔,퇐뺿랢쿖믣싊늨뚯뛔탨쟳떯탔늻춬뗄짌욷볛룱쮮욽뗄펰쿬늻춬,떯탔풽킡퓲믣싊뒫뗝킧펦풽듳ꆣ2ꆢ뫪맛뾪럅돌뛈뛔믣싊뒫뗝뗄펰쿬뷼쓪살,쯦ퟅ뺭볃좫쟲뮯돌뛈뗄늻뛏짮뮯,룷맺횮볤뗄뺭볃솪쾵뫍쿠뮥펰쿬쿔훸퓶잿,듙쪹튻킩톧헟듓좫쟲뮯뺭볃뷡릹뗄쫓뷇뛔믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뷸탐럖컶뫍뷢쫍,뾼달펰쿬믣싊뒫뗝뗄룷훖틲쯘ꆣ샽죧,BodnarꆢDumas뫍Marston(2002)믹폚뺭볃좫쟲뮯놳뺰쿂뗄뿧맺짺닺쒣쪽살쮵쏷늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝뗄풭틲,쯻쏇뗄퇐뺿뇭쏷,죧맻웳튵뗄짺닺맽돌짦벰뫜뛠맺볒,쓇쎴ퟮ훕닺욷뗄돉놾뻍뫍뛠훖믵뇒쿠맘,횻튪늻쫇쯹폐믵뇒뚼쿠뛔폚뷸뿚맺믵뇒짽횵,뻍믡돶쿖믣싊뒫뗝늻췪좫뗄쿖쿳ꆣ쯹틔쮵,웳튵짺닺쯹뿧맺볒풽뛠,믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뻍풽킡ꆣGustꆢLeduc뫍Vigfusson(2006)샻폃뾪럅뺭볃뗄뚯첬튻냣뻹뫢쒣탍살볬퇩쏀맺믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄컈뚨탔,퇐뺿랢쿖쏀맺뗄믣싊뒫뗝킧펦돶쿖쿔훸쿂붵,믣싊늨뚯뛔뷸뿚욷뗄펰쿬돌뛈쏷쿔복죵ꆣ퇐뺿횸돶,믣싊뒫뗝킧펦쿂붵뗄풭틲쫇뺭볃좫쟲뮯돌뛈뗄쳡룟뷸뛸떼훂붻틗돉놾뗄쿂붵,틲캪헢믡퓶볓돶뿚짌뗄볓돉뇈샽,뷸뛸퓶볓틲쫐뚨볛뗄뿕볤ꆣSlavov(2007)죏캪좫쟲뮯맽돌훐살ퟔ랢햹훐맺볒뗄듳솿닺욷릩룸퓶잿쇋맺볊쫐뎡뗄뺺헹돌뛈,뷸뛸쿷죵쇋웳튵뗄쫐뎡쫆솦,폚쫇떼훂쇋믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄쿂붵ꆣ(쯄)헾닟몬틥퇐뺿:믵뇒헾닟뫍믣싊쳥훆1ꆢ춨믵엲헍벰믵뇒헾닟뷼쓪살,맘폚믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄퇐뺿훰붥뫍춨믵엲헍틔벰믵뇒헾닟솪쾵웰살,웤맘힢뗄훘뗣쫇뾪럅뺭볃쳵볾쿂췢늿펰쿬떼훂뗄믣싊뇤뚯뫍맺쓚믵뇒헾닟뗄쿠뮥펰쿬,틲듋퇐뺿랽램뛠캪튻냣뻹뫢랽램,퇐뺿뛔쿳뛠캪탂탋릤튵맺볒뫍킡탍뾪럅뺭볃맺볒,헢샠맺볒뗄췢쎳틀듦뛈쿠뛔뷏룟,폚쫇뷏죝틗쫜떽췢늿돥믷뗄펰쿬ꆣTaylor(2000)싊쿈첽쳖쇋믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뫍춨믵엲헍뗄맘쾵ꆣTaylor뗄퇐뺿릹붨쇋튻룶샭싛쒣탍,볙뚨튻룶뗤탍뎧짌룹뻝뛔춨믵엲헍뗄풤웚살풤쿈짨뚨볛룱,퓚늻춬뗄춨믵엲헍뮷뺳쿂믣싊뇤뚯뛔돉놾틔벰볛룱뗄펰쿬뻍늻튻퇹ꆣ죧맻헾뢮쪵탐뿉틔탅삵뗄쫊펦탔헾닟살뗖쿻믣싊뇤뚯,쓇쎴뗍춨헍뗄풤웚뻍믡쪹믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뇈뷏캢죵,랴횮퓲믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뻍믡뇈뷏쏷쿔ꆣ뷓쿂살뗄튻킩쪵횤퇐뺿캪Taylor뗄맛뗣쳡릩쇋횧돖ꆣGagnon뫍Ihrig(2004)뷨훺튻킩릤튵뮯맺볒뗄쫽뻝쪵횤볬퇩쇋춨믵엲헍컈뚨탔뫍믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄솪쾵,퇐뺿랢쿖뛾헟횮볤듦퓚쿔훸쿠맘맘쾵ꆣCampa뫍Goldberg(2006)샻폃OECD맺볒뗄쫽뻝럖컶쇋춨믵엲헍싊ꆢ믣싊늨뚯탔뫍믣싊뒫뗝킧펦횮볤뗄맘쾵,뷡맻랢쿖늻싛쫇뷏듳뗄춨믵엲헍싊뮹쫇뷏잿뗄믣싊늨뚯탔뚼믡퓶잿믣싊뒫뗝킧펦ꆣChoudhri뫍Hakura(2006)샻폃71룶맺볒1979-2000쓪뗄쫽뻝퓚탂뾪럅뺭볃쿂뗄뫪맛뺭볃쒣탍뗄뿲볜쿂뷸탐쪵횤퇐뺿,첽쳖춨믵엲헍싊뫍믣싊뒫뗝킧펦횮볤뗄맘쾵,퇐뺿랢쿖,춨믵엲헍싊풽룟,믣싊뒫뗝킧펦풽잿,뛸쟒춨믵엲헍싊뗄닮틬쫇떼훂룷룶맺볒뗄믣싊뒫뗝킧펦늻춬뗄훷떼틲쯘ꆣ쇭췢,뮹폐튻킩톧헟붫믵뇒헾닟ퟷ캪튻룶쓚짺뇤솿틽죫믣싊뒫뗝쳥쾵횮훐,죏캪믵뇒횤듊뿉틔춨맽펰쿬춨헍풤웚살펰쿬믣싊뒫뗝킧펦ꆣ뇈죧Devereux뫍Yetman(2002)듓샭싛뫍쪵횤솽룶뷇뛈뛔믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄쓚짺탔뷸탐쇋럖컶ꆣ쯻쏇죏캪,죧맻듦퓚뿉탅뗄믵뇒헾닟살캬돖튻룶뷏뗍뗄춨믵엲헍쮮욽,볛룱뗷헻욵싊뻍믡뷏뗍,욽뻹뗄믣싊뒫뗝킧펦튲뻍뷏킡ꆣꆪ69ꆪ
2ꆢ믣싊훆뛈톡퓱믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄퇐뺿뛔폚튻룶뾪럅뺭볃맺볒뗄믣싊훆뛈톡퓱튲뻟폐럇뎣훘튪뗄헾닟떼쿲틢틥ꆣ뢡뚯믣싊훆뗄횧돖헟죏캪,뢡뚯믣싊뿉틔ퟔ랢뗷뷚맺볊쫕횧,쪹튻맺퓚맺볊쫕횧쪧뫢쪱쓜릻벰쪱룄뇤맺볊쿠뛔볛룱,듓뛸톸쯙뗘믖뢴욽뫢ꆣ좻뛸,믣싊뗄뗷뷚ퟷ폃쫇붨솢퓚펰쿬쿠뛔볛룱뗄믹뒡짏뗄,뛸퓚쿖쪵뺭볃떱훐,믣싊뒫뗝킧펦췹췹늢늻췪좫,쓇쎴믣싊뇤뚯뻍늻쓜떼훂쿠뛔볛룱쿠춬럹뛈뗄뇤뚯,뢡뚯믣싊뗄뗷뷚릦쓜튲뻍쓑틔췪좫쪵쿖ꆣObstfeld뫍Rogoff(1995)횸돶,횻튪틔짺닺헟믵뇒뚨볛뗄닺욷뻟폐볛룱햳탔,늢쟒믣싊뒫뗝킧펦쫇췪좫뗄,쓇쎴뢡뚯믣싊훆뻍쓜돤럖랢믓웤폅쫆,뛔뷸돶뿚뷸탐뿬쯙ힼ좷뗄뗷뷚ꆣ듓훐뿉틔뾴떽,췪좫뗄믣싊뒫뗝쫇뢡뚯믣싊훆늻뿉믲좱뗄튻룶쳵볾ꆣBetts뫍Devereux(2000)죏캪,믣싊뇤뚯뛔뷸뿚욷볛룱뗄뒫뗝킧펦쫇튻룶맺볒톡퓱만뚨믣싊훆믲뢡뚯믣싊훆뗄맘볼틲쯘ꆣ튻냣살쮵,믣싊뒫뗝쾵쫽뷩폚0뫍1횮볤,죧맻쾵쫽풽뷓뷼0,틢캶ퟅ믣싊뒫뗝킧펦풽킡,듋쪱뢡뚯믣싊뛔쿠뛔볛룱뗄뗷헻뻍컞램쪵쿖,쏻틥믣싊놣돖만뚨쮮욽뻍쫇튻룶뇈뷏뫃뗄톡퓱;죧맻뒫뗝쾵쫽풽뷓뷼1,쓇쎴믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뻍풽듳,뢡뚯믣싊훆뗄폅쫆룼볓쏷쿔ꆣ뛾ꆢ뛔죋쏱뇒믣싊뒫뗝퇐뺿뗄쮼뾼:믹폚쫐뎡늻췪좫뺺헹평폚컒맺퓚뫜뎤튻뛎쪱웚쓚쪵탐뗄쫇만뚨믣싊훆,쯹틔믣싊뒫뗝킧펦늢캴뗃떽첫뛠맘힢,횱떽뷼벸쓪믣싊쳥훆룄룯뾪쪼횮뫳,죋쏱뇒믣싊늨럹훰붥볓듳,믣싊뇤뚯뛔쎳틗쫕횧ꆢ볛룱쮮욽쓋훁믣싊뫍믵뇒헾닟뗄펰쿬닅훰붥뷸죫죋쏇뗄쫓튰,돉캪맺볊뺭볃톧쇬폲뗄죈뗣컊쳢ꆣ쒿잰,컒맺헽쏦쇙ퟅ뇈뷏퇏훘뗄쎳틗쪧뫢벰웤틽랢뗄튻쾵쇐컊쳢,쪵쳥뺭볃쇬폲듦퓚쎳틗쮳닮맽듳뫍췢탨늻ퟣ뗄쟩뿶,믵뇒쇬폲쏦쇙ퟅ놣돖믣싊컈뚨뫍틖훆춨믵엲헍뗄솽쓑뻱퓱ꆣ퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,뛔믣싊뒫뗝뷸탐짮죫럖컶,뻟폐훘튪뗄샭싛뫍쪵볹볛횵,뿉틔룼ힼ좷뗘쇋뷢뺭볃돥믷뗄맺볊뒫떼ꆢ톡퓱뫏샭뗄믣싊훆뛈틔벰훆뚨폐킧뗄믵뇒헾닟ꆣ쿖폐뛔폚죋쏱뇒믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄퇐뺿훷튪쫇춨맽쪵횤랽램살볬퇩죋쏱뇒믣싊뇤뚯뛔볛룱뒫뗝솴쳵짏튻쾵쇐볛룱횸뇪뗄펰쿬,웤훐냼삨쿻럑헟컯볛횸쫽ꆢ짺닺헟컯볛횸쫽뫍튻킩웤쯼럖탐튵횸쫽뗈뗈ꆣ랶횾폂뫍쿲뗜몣(2006)ꆢ싀붣(2007)ꆢ쪩붨뮴뗈(2008)ꆢ돂샋쓏뗈(2008)쪵횤볬퇩쇋죋쏱뇒믣싊뇤뚯뛔튻냣볛룱쮮욽뗄뒫뗝킧펦,럢놱(2006)ꆢ돂톧뇲뗈(2007)ꆢ뇏폱붭뫍훬훓(2007)샻폃탐튵쫽뻝럖컶쇋죋쏱뇒믣싊뇤뚯뛔늻춬탐튵볛룱쮮욽뗄펰쿬,쯯솢볡뫍붭퇥(2003)ꆢ돂쇹뢵뫍쇵뫱뾡(2007)ꆢ췵뷺뇳뫍샮쓏(2009)뷡뫏죋쏱뇒믣싊뒫뗝킧펦첽쳖쇋웤폫쿠맘뺭볃헾닟뗄솪쾵ꆣ헢킩퇐뺿뗃돶쇋탭뛠럡뢻뛸폐틢틥뗄뷡싛,듳뛠죏캪죋쏱뇒믣싊뒫뗝킧펦늢늻췪좫,헢뫍맺췢뗄뺭퇩퇐뺿쯹뗃돶뗄뷡싛믹놾튻훂ꆣ좻뛸,평폚훐맺뺭볃퓚룄룯뾪럅쓋훁믣싊쳥훆뇤뚯맽돌훐뇭쿖돶훖훖뗄쳘쫢탔,쪹뗃죋쏱뇒믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝뗄풭틲뇤뗃틬뎣뢴퓓ꆣ좻뛸,쿖폐퇐뺿뛠쫽춣쇴퓚뛔뒫뗝쾵쫽뗄쪵횤볬퇩헢튻닣쏦,뷏짙뷡뫏훐맺뗄쪵볊쟩뿶살럖컶펰쿬죋쏱뇒믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄훮뛠틲쯘ꆣ틲듋,컒쏇죏캪,튪쿫헽좷죏쪶죋쏱뇒믣싊뒫뗝킧펦벰웤펰쿬,뻍펦룃뷡뫏훐맺뗄쪵볊쟩뿶뛔맺췢샭싛퇐뺿쒣탍ퟶ돶뗷헻,훘뗣맘힢죋쏱뇒믣싊뇤뚯뛔돶뿚욷볛룱뫍쎳틗쫕횧뗄펰쿬,늢퓚듋믹뒡짏첽쳖쫊뫏컒맺뗄믣싊쳥훆낲업ꆣ컒맺쒿잰죔좻뒦폚룄룯뾪럅뗄맽돌횮훐,쫐뎡믺훆짐늻췪짆,퓚튻킩쳘쫢뗄뮷뷚뫍쇬폲뮹듦퓚늻췪좫뺺헹쿖쿳,헢킩틲쯘뛔죋쏱뇒믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뫜뿉쓜듦퓚늻뿉뫶쫓뗄펰쿬ꆣ뻟쳥살쮵폐틔쿂죽룶랽쏦:뗚튻,늻췪좫뺺헹뗄샍뚯솦쫐뎡쿷죵쇋믣싊뇤뚯뛔컒맺돶뿚욷볛룱뗄뒫뗝킧펦ꆣ컒맺엓듳뗄샍뚯솦릩룸쪹뗃샍뚯솦쫐뎡짏돊쿖돶쒳훖돌뛈뗄싲랽슢뛏,헢믡쪹컒맺돶뿚짌퓚쏦쇙믣싊늨뚯뗄쪱뫲춨맽룄뇤샍뚯솦돉놾살뷸탐뮺돥ꆣ죧맻샍뚯솦릩룸떯탔뫜킡,쓇쎴샍뚯솦볛룱뇤뚯뻍믡늿럖뮯뷢믣싊뛔돶뿚욷돉놾쓋훁돶뿚욷볛룱뗄펰쿬ꆣ뗚뛾,늻췪좫뺺헹뗄훐볤춶죫욷쫐뎡튲믡쿷죵믣싊뇤뚯뛔컒맺돶뿚욷볛룱뗄뒫뗝킧펦ꆣ췢짌춶웳튵뫍볓릤쎳틗쫇컒맺쎳틗쇬폲뗄쿔훸쳘헷,뛸볓릤쎳틗뗄쒣쪽쫇뷸뿚훐볤닺욷ꆢ볓릤뫳돶뿚ퟮ훕닺욷ꆣ컒맺뗄짺닺뎧짌탨튪뷸뿚듳솿뗄훐볤닺욷,뛸헢킩뷸뿚훐볤닺욷춶죫뫍맺쓚춶죫횮볤뗄쳦듺탔뇈뷏죵,폚쫇믣싊뇤뚯뛔훐볤춶죫욷뗄펰쿬뻍믡뇈뷏듳,듓뛸퓚돉놾짏늿럖뗖쿻컒맺돶뿚닺욷뗄볛룱뇤뚯ꆣ뗚죽,늻췪좫뺺헹뗄뷸뿚쿻럑욷쫐뎡퓶잿쇋믣싊뇤뚯뛔컒맺뷸뿚욷볛룱뗄뒫뗝킧펦ꆣ쒿잰컒맺뷸뿚뗄닺욷뛠캪벼쫵쏜벯탍뫍놾쏜벯탍닺욷,헢샠닺욷쫜떽샻좨ꆢ횪쪶닺좨믲뷸죫췋돶뇚생뗄놣뮤,춨뎣뒦폚ꆪ70ꆪ
늻췪좫뺺헹ힴ첬ꆣ틲듋,췢맺돶뿚짌펵폐뇈뷏잿뗄뚨볛쓜솦,뷸뛸뛔믣싊돥믷뗄랴펦튲뻍뇈뷏쏷쿔ꆣ듓헢룶틢틥짏붲,믣싊뇤뚯뛔컒맺뷸뿚욷뗄뒫뗝킧펦뻍믡뇈뷏듳ꆣ뒫춳뗄샭싛쒣탍뛠쫽쫇믹폚릤튵뮯맺볒뗄쪵볊쟩뿶살릹퓬뗄,늢쎻폐쳘뇰맘힢쫐뎡늻췪짆뗄쳘샽ꆣ틲듋,퓚럖컶죋쏱뇒믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄쪱뫲,펦룃쳘뇰맘힢짏쫶늻췪좫뺺헹뗄틲쯘,뾼싇헢킩틲쯘퓚믣싊뒫뗝맽돌훐쯹웰뗄ퟷ폃,닅쓜헽좷죏쪶죋쏱뇒믣싊뇤뚯닺짺뗄펰쿬ꆣ죽ꆢ훷튪뷡싛춨맽뛔맺쓚췢퇐뺿믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄컄쿗뷸탐믘맋,컒쏇뿉틔뾴떽,뛔믣싊뒫뗝뗄죏쪶뺭샺쇋듓쳘뚨탐튵떽쾵춳퇐뺿ꆢ듓쾵쫽볬퇩떽컈뚨탔뫢솿ꆢ듓풭틲뷢쫍떽헾닟몬틥뗄맽돌,틑뺭좡뗃뎤ퟣ뗄뷸햹,뛸쟒퓚믹놾뷡싛짏좡뗃쇋릲쪶:믣싊뗄뒫뗝킧펦쫇늻췪좫뗄,늢쟒늻춬맺볒ꆢ늻춬탐튵ꆢ늻춬쪱웚뗄믣싊뒫뗝킧펦폐쯹닮틬,헢훖닮틬뗄훷튪풭틲쫇돶뿚짌뗄쫐뎡쫆솦뫍뷸뿚맺맺쓚짌욷뛔뷸뿚욷뗄쳦듺쓜솦폐쯹늻춬ꆣ뻍샭싛퇐뺿살쮵,쿖폐뗄듓캢맛떽뫪맛훮뛠쒣탍뚼뿉틔춨맽쳘뚨뗄닎쫽뫍볙짨쳵볾살쒣쓢쪵볊쟩뿶,떫쫇짐쎻폐튻룶쓜릻죃죋웕뇩뷓쫜뗄춳튻쒣탍ꆣ랢듯맺볒ꆢ랢햹훐맺볒ꆢ탂탋릤튵맺틲웤믣싊쳥훆뫍쎳틗쒣쪽뗄늻춬,뻟폐룷ퟔ뗄쳘뗣,퓚샭싛쒣탍뗄짨뚨짏튲늻뿉쓜췪좫쿠춬ꆣ뻍쪵횤퇐뺿살쮵,쿖폐컄쿗뛠쫽쫇룹뻝랢듯맺볒뗄뺭볃쪵볹,듓뷸뿚욷뗄뷇뛈퇩횤믵뇒뇡횵뗄펰쿬,뷸뛸럖컶믣싊뇤뚯뛔맺쓚춨믵엲헍뫍믵뇒헾닟뗄틢틥ꆣ평폚쿖폐뗄퇐뺿훷튪쫇헫뛔랢듯맺볒뾪햹뗄,쯹틔퓚럖컶죋쏱뇒믣싊뒫뗝킧펦쪱펦룃뷡뫏컒맺쫐뎡짏듦퓚뗄늻췪좫뺺헹쟩뿶뛔쿖폐샭싛쒣탍뫍쪵횤랽램ퟶ돶뗷헻뫍룄뷸,듓돶뿚욷뫍뷸뿚욷솽룶랽쏦ퟛ뫏에뛏죋쏱뇒믣싊뇤뚯뗄뒫뗝킧펦,틔벰뛔춨믵엲헍뫍쎳틗폠뛮뗄펰쿬ꆣ닎뾼컄쿗[1]Goldberg,,.,GoodsPricesandExchangeRates:WhatHaveWeLearned?[J].JournalofEconomicLiterature,1997,35:124321272.[2]Richardson,.,SomeEmpiricalEvidenceonCommodityArbitrageandtheLawofOnePrice[J].JournalofInternationalEconomics,1978,8:3412351.[3]Giovannini,A.,ExchangeRatesandTradedGoodsPrices[J].JournalofInternationalEconomics,1989,24:45268.[4]Krugman,.,PricingtoMarketWhentheExchangeRateChanges[J].RealFinancialLinkagesa2mongOpenEconomies,Cambridge,MA:.[5]Marston,R.,PricingtoMarketinJapaneseManufacturing[J].JournalofInternationalEconomics,1990,29:2172236.[6]Gagnon,.,Knetter,.,MarkupAdjustandExchangeRateFluctuations:EvidencefromPan2elDataonAutomobileExports[J].JournalofInternationalMoneyandFinance,1995,14:2892310.[7]Korhonen,I.,Wachtel,P.,ANoteonExchangeRatePass2throughinCISCountries[J].Internation2alBusinessandFinance,2006,20:2152226.[8]Fuentes,M.,Pass2throughtoImportPrices:EvidenceFromDevelopingCountries[J].PontificiaUni2versidadCatolicaDeChile,DocumentodeTrabajo,.[9]Campa,.,Goldberg,.,ExchangeRatePass2throughintoImportPrices[J].TheReviewofEconomicsandStatistics,2005,87:6792690.[10]McCarthy,J.,Pass2throughofExchangeRatesandImportPricestoDomesticInflationinSomeIndus2trializedCountries[J].FederalReserveBankofNewYorkStaffReport,.[11]Sekine,T.,Time2varyingExchangeRatePass2through:ExperiencesofSomeIndustrialCountries[J].BISWorkingPaper,.[12]Ihrig,.,Marazzi,M.,Rothenberg,.,ExchangeRatePass2throughintheG27Countries[J]InternationalFinanceDiscussionPapers,.ꆪ71ꆪ
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