ꆡꆡꆡꆡ믣싊뒫뗝샭싛컄쿗ퟛ쫶쪩붨뮴ꆡ뢵탛맣3ꆡꆡ쓚죝쳡튪ꆡꆰ믣싊뒫뗝ꆱ쫇맺볊뺭볃톧훐뗄튻룶훘튪컊쳢,믣싊뒫뗝싊뗄룟뗍늻뷶펰쿬믣싊뇤뚯뛔쎳틗쫕횧뗷헻뗄ퟷ폃,뛸쟒펰쿬믣싊폫뫪맛뺭볃늨뚯틔벰믵뇒헾닟뛔볛룱뗄뒫떼,뛔뫪맛뺭볃폐훘튪펰쿬ꆣ맺볊짏뻟폐듳솿뗄쿠맘퇐뺿컄쿗,떫맺쓚헢랽쏦뗄퇐뺿쿠뛔?랦ꆣ쒿잰훐맺뺭볃췢늿쪧뫢컊쳢춻돶,믵뇒헾닟뗄횴탐튲풽살풽뛠뗘쫜떽췢늿틲쯘펰쿬,뛔폚헢킩컊쳢뗄퇐뺿뚼믡짦벰믣싊뒫뗝틲쯘ꆣ놾컄뛔ꆰ믣싊뒫뗝ꆱ헢튻훘튪퇐뺿쇬폲뗄샭싛컄쿗뷸탐쇋ퟛ쫶,훘뗣ퟛ쫶쇋믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝뗄돉틲뫍믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝뛔뫪맛닣쏦뗄펰쿬솽랽쏦컄쿗ꆣ맘볼듊ꆡ믣싊뒫뗝ꆡ맺볊쫕횧뗷헻ꆡ믵뇒헾닟튻ꆡ틽ꆡ퇔맺볊뺭볃톧훐맘폚뢡뚯믣싊훆뛈뫍만뚨믣싊훆뛈쫫폅쫫쇓뗄헹싛평살틑뻃ꆣFriedman(1953)죏캪뢡뚯믣싊훆뛈뿉틔쳡릩룼볓폐킧뗄맺볊쫕횧뗷헻ꆣ늼샗뛙즭쇖쳥쾵뇀삣뫳,릤튵뮯맺볒믣싊늨뚯뇤뗃룼볓뻧쇒,떫쫇믣싊뇤뚯늢캴쿱죋쏇퓧쿈웚듽뗄쓇퇹랢믓뗷헻쎳틗쫕횧쪹웤ퟔ뚯듯돉뻹뫢뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ훷튪릤튵뮯맺볒뗄쎳틗쫕횧돖뻃뗘뒦폚늻욽뫢ힴ첬,20쫀볍80쓪듺잰냫웚헢훖쎳틗쫕횧늻욽뫢듯떽쇋벫뗣,ퟮ훕떼훂쇋맣뎡킭틩뗄돶첨뫍훷튪릤튵뮯맺볒듳럹뛈뗄믣싊룉풤ꆣ좻뛸,쏀풪뗄듳럹뛈뇡횵춬퇹쎻3쪩붨뮴:놱뺩듳톧뺭볃톧풺ꆡ100871ꆡ뗧ퟓ탅쿤:jhshi@;뢵탛맣:훐탅횤좯ꆣퟷ헟룐킻짳룥죋쳡돶뗄탞룄틢볻,뛔폚죔뿉쓜듦퓚뗄늻ퟣ믲듭컳평ퟷ헟ퟔ뢺ꆣ쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚5웚ꆡꆤ3ꆤ
ꆡꆡ믣싊뒫뗝샭싛컄쿗ퟛ쫶폐쿱죋쏇웚듽뗄쓇퇹톸쯙복짙쏀맺뗄쎳틗쫕횧쓦닮ꆣ헢틽돶쇋쯹캽뗄ꆰ뗷헻횮쏕ꆱ,벴캪쪲쎴믣싊뛔쎳틗쫕횧뗄뗷헻늢늻쫇죧듋폐킧ꆣ웰돵,뺭볃톧볒쳡돶쇋ꆰ떯탔놯맛훷틥ꆱ뗄뷢쫍(벴뷸돶뿚탨쟳뗄볛룱떯탔뫜뗍),좻뛸뫜뿬,듳솿뗄뺭퇩퇐뺿뇭쏷,뛔폚뻸듳뛠쫽릤튵뮯맺볒,싺ퟣ십킪뛻-샕쓉쳵볾뫜죝틗(GoldsteinandKhan,1985)ꆣ횮뫳뺭볃톧볒쏇쿲뾼달믣싊뫍맺볊쎳틗욷볛룱횮볤뗄쓚퓚솪쾵,돶쿖쇋듳솿돆캪ꆰ믣싊뒫뗝ꆱ(exchangeratepass-through)뗄컄쿗ꋙ,믣싊뒫뗝쫇횸믣싊뇤뚯떼훂쎳틗욷틔쿺쫛뗘믵뇒볆볛볛룱뇤뚯뗄돌뛈ꆣ떱놾뇒뇡횵1%쪱,뷸뿚짌욷놾뇒볛룱짏헇(믲돶뿚짌욷쿖뗘믵뇒볛룱쿂붵)뗄냙럖뇈놻돆캪믣싊뛔뷸뿚볛룱(믲돶뿚볛룱)뗄뒫뗝싊ꆣ떯탔쒣탍맘폚믣싊뇤뚯틽웰쎳틗쫕횧듳뗄뗷헻뗄풤퇔,쫇붨솢퓚믣싊췪좫뒫뗝(뒫뗝싊캪100%)뗄믹뒡짏뗄ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵,믣싊뇤뚯췪좫랴펳떽뷸돶뿚볛룱짏ꆣ떫쫇죧맻믣싊뒫뗝늻췪좫,벴믣싊뇤뚯횻폐늿럖랴펳퓚뷸돶뿚볛룱짏,쓇쎴벴쪹싺ퟣ십킪뛻-샕쓉쳵볾,믣싊뛔뷸돶뿚쫽솿뗄뗷헻튲붫쫇죵뗄ꆣ뮻뻤뮰쮵,뗍믣싊뒫뗝싊쪹뗃쎳틗쇷뛔믣싊뇤뚯늻쏴룐돉캪뿉쓜,뺡맜뷸돶뿚탨쟳뗄볛룱떯탔뫜룟ꆣ뷸튻늽,죧맻믣싊뇤뚯쿲뷸돶뿚볛룱뗄뒫뗝듦퓚쏷쿔뗄쪱훍,퓙볓짏쫽솿뗷헻뛔쿠뛔볛룱뇤뮯뗄랴펦튲듦퓚쏷쿔뗄훍뫳,쓇쎴헻룶쎳틗쫕횧뗄뗷헻맽돌붫놻ퟨ낭ꆣ듋췢,평폚믣싊뒫뗝뗄돌뛈틔벰쪱훍,쫇펰쿬믵뇒헾닟뛔볛룱뗄뒫떼틔벰춨믵엲헍풤웚뗄훘튪틲쯘,쯹틔믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝,튲뿉틔뷢쫍릤튵뮯맺볒퓚믣싊늨뚯뇤뗃룼볓뻧쇒뗄쪱웚늢쎻폐맛달떽돶쿖뛱탔춨믵엲헍믲춨믵뷴쯵쿖쿳뗄쏕쳢ꆣ쒿잰훐맺뺭볃췢늿쪧뫢뗄컊쳢춻돶,춨맽믣싊뗷헻살뻀헽췢늿쪧뫢뗄톹솦풽살풽듳,죋쏱뇒짽횵뛔폚복짙훐맺쎳틗쮳닮뗄ퟷ폃죧뫎쫇튻룶횵뗃퇐뺿뗄컊쳢ꆣ쒿잰,맺쓚뛔폚헢튻컊쳢뗄쳖싛뷏짙뾼싇믣싊뒫뗝틲쯘,폐맘죋쏱뇒믣싊뒫뗝뛔훐맺맺볊쫕횧펰쿬뗄퇐뺿컄쿗튲뇈뷏?랦ꆣ듋췢,죋쏱뇒믣싊뒫뗝싊뛔폚훐맺뫪맛뺭볃틔벰믵뇒헾닟튲폐훘튪뗄펰쿬,뾪햹쿠맘뗄퇐뺿뛔폚헾닟떱뻖뻟폐훘튪틢틥ꆣ놾컄뗄쪣폠늿럖낲업죧쿂:뗚뛾뷚뷩짜폐맘내쫐뎡뚨볛탐캪뗄컄쿗,내쫐뎡뚨볛탐캪쫇떼훂믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝뗄튻룶훘튪틲쯘,튲쫇컄쿗맘힢뷏뛠뗄틲쯘;뗚죽뷚ퟛ쫶맘폚믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝뗄웤쯻틲쯘뗄퇐뺿컄쿗;뗚쯄뷚ퟛ쫶맘폚믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝뫪맛펰쿬뗄퇐뺿컄쿗,헢랽쏦컄쿗뷼쓪살퓶뎤톸쯙;뗚컥뷚쫇ퟜ뷡ꆣꋙ뛔폚펢컄ꆰexchangeratepass-throughꆱ맺쓚튲폐ꆰ믣싊뒫떼ꆱꆢꆰ믣싊뷾춸ꆱꆢꆰ믣싊볞ꆱ뗈늻춬뗄틫램ꆣ쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚5웚ꆡꆤ4ꆤ
ꆡꆡ쪩붨뮴ꆡ뢵탛맣ꆡꆡ뛾ꆡ내쫐뎡뚨볛폫믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝20쫀볍80쓪듺잰웚쏀풪뗄듳럹짽횵늢쎻폐쿔훸붵뗍쏀맺뗄뷸뿚욷볛룱,헢떼훂춬훖짌욷퓚쏀맺뫍웤쯻맺볒볤뗄볛룱닮뻠퓶듳ꆣ뇈죧20쫀볍80쓪듺훐웚쏀풪ퟟ잿쪱,뗂맺웻뎵퓚쏀맺뗄쫛볛튪뇈퓚얷훞뗄쫛볛룟돶30%ꆫ40%ꆣ쏀풪짽횵뫳췢맺뎧짌캬돖짵훁쳡룟쯼쏇뗄돶뿚볛룱,듓뛸떼훂춬훖닺욷맺쓚볛룱뫍돶뿚볛룱닺짺욫샫뗄쿖쿳,헢놻Krugman뗈죋돆캪ꆰ내쫐뎡뚨볛ꆱ(pricingtomarket,PTM)ꆣ튻냣뗘,ꆰ내쫐뎡뚨볛ꆱ뿉틔뚨틥캪평믣싊틽훂뗄맺볊쫐뎡짏뗄뚨볛닮뇰ꆣ평폚ꆰ내쫐뎡뚨볛ꆱ탐캪뗄듦퓚,믣싊뇤뚯떼훂돉놾볓돉뗄쿠펦뗷헻,틔훂믣싊뛔뷸뿚볛룱뗄뒫뗝쫇늻췪좫뗄ꆣ튻킩컄쿗첽쳖쇋PTM뗄돉틲,틔듋쮵쏷믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝쿖쿳ꆣ헢샠컄쿗훷튪듓닺튵ퟩ횯뷇뛈럖컶믣싊뒫뗝뫍쫐뎡뷡릹벰뺺헹쳘탔뗄맘쾵,튻냣닉폃뻖늿뻹뫢쒣탍,붫믣싊쫓캪췢짺,뷸돶뿚볛룱뛔믣싊뇤뚯ퟶ돶랴펦ꆣ쫐뎡럖룮쫇떼훂PTM듦퓚뗄믹뒡ꆣ죧맻쫐뎡쫇튻쳥뮯뗄,벴쪹뎧짌폐닮뇰뚨볛뗄뚯믺,평폚듦퓚쳗샻탐캪,폃춬훖믵뇒뫢솿뗄닺욷볛룱튲쫇쿠춬뗄,벴싺ퟣ튻볛뚨싉ꆣ벴쪹뾼싇떽붻틗돉놾뗄듦퓚,볙죧붻틗돉놾쫇볛룱뗄튻룶만뚨뗄놶쫽,쓇쎴쿠뛔튻볛뚨싉튲펦룃싺ퟣꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵,믣싊뇤뚯붫떼훂솽맺닺욷볛룱춬뇈샽뇤뚯ꆣ떫쫇틑폐뗄뺭퇩퇐뺿뇭쏷,뻸뛔튻볛뚨싉뫍쿠뛔튻볛뚨싉뚼늻싺ퟣꋙ,틲듋쫐뎡쫇럖룮뗄ꆣ쫂쪵짏,평폚닺욷쿺쫛맽돌훐퓋쫤ꆢ럖엤뫍쇣쫛뗈늿쏅뗄듦퓚,닺욷떽ퟮ훕쿺쫛쪱틑냼몬뫜뛠늻뿉쎳틗돉럖,틲듋쿻럑헟뾼싇돉놾틲쯘횻쓜퓚떱뗘쫐뎡릺싲닺욷,쳗샻탐캪뫜쓑쪵쿖ꆣ퓚쫐뎡럖룮뗄잰쳡쿂,뿉틔듓탨쟳쏦믲릩룸쏦뷇뛈럖컶내쫐뎡뚨볛탐캪,웤훐듓탨쟳쏦뾼싇뗄틲쯘폐:볛룱웧쫓(Krugman,1986;Marston,1990)뫍쫐뎡럝뛮(Dohner,1984;FrootandKlemperer,1989;Feenstraetal.,1996);듓릩룸쏦뾼싇뗄틲쯘폐:돁쎻돉놾(Baldwin,1988ꆢ1990;BaldwinandKrugman,1989;Dixit,1989)뫍뗷헻돉놾(Kasa,1992)ꆣ(튻)볛룱웧쫓폫내쫐뎡뚨볛뛔폚퓚늻춬쫐뎡짏뎧짌뛔춬훖닺욷폐늻춬뗄뚨볛뛸퇔,ퟮ죝틗쿫떽뗄튻훖탨쟳쏦뗄뷢쫍쫇뎧짌퓚늻춬쫐뎡짏뷸탐볛룱웧쫓ꆣ짨뗚i룶닺튵폐튻룶슢뛏뎧짌퓚맺쓚짺닺ꋙ닎뾼Kravis폫Lipsey(1977)ꆢIsard(1977)ꆢRichardson(1978)뫍Giovannini(1988)뗈죋뗄퇐뺿ꆣ쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚5웚ꆡꆤ5ꆤ
ꆡꆡ믣싊뒫뗝샭싛컄쿗ퟛ쫶닺욷,떫쫇퓚맺쓚뫍맺췢춬쪱돶쫛닺욷,늢쟒슢뛏뎧짌뿉틔퓚맺쓚뫍맺췢쫐뎡뷸탐볛룱웧쫓,쓇쎴슢뛏뎧짌믡룹뻝맺쓚췢쫐뎡뗄탨쟳럖뇰훆뚨솽룶쫐뎡뗄볛룱틔쪹솽룶쫐뎡뗄샻죳ퟜ뫍ퟮ듳뮯,쯹틔훆뚨뗄볛룱뇘뚨폫솽룶쫐뎡뗄탨쟳몯쫽폐맘ꆣKrugman(1986)ꆢMarston(1990)뗈뾼싇쇋짏쫶볙짨쿂뗄PTM쒣탍,짨퓚맺쓚쫐뎡짏뗄돶쫛볛룱캪Pit,뛸퓚맺췢쫐뎡짏틔췢뇒뇭쪾뗄볛룱캪P3it,볙짨평뗚죽랽뷸탐뗄쳗샻쫇쎻폐킧싊뗄ꆣ솽룶쫐뎡뗄쿠뛔볛룱뿉틔뇭쪾캪:X)it=(StP3it/Pit,내쫐뎡뚨볛짦벰뗄쫇헢룶쿠뛔볛룱ꆣ듓놾맺뎧짌샻죳ퟮ듳뮯뗄튻뷗쳵볾뗃돶죧쿂뗄뚨볛닟싔:Pit=C1M(ꆤ)(1)StP3it=C1N(ꆤ)(2)ꆡꆡ웤훐C1캪뇟볊돉놾,M(ꆤ)ꆢN(ꆤ)럖뇰쫇맺쓚뫍맺췢볛룱뗄볓돉몯쫽,폃탨쟳볛룱떯탔,쯼쏇럖뇰뿉틔킴돉M=ꛇ/(ꛇ-1)벰N=ꛇ3/(ꛇ3-1),춨맽짏쫶뚨볛닟싔뿉틔쟳뗃맺췢볛룱뛔믣싊뗄떯탔ꛂ1쫇킡폚0뗄,뛸맺쓚볛룱뛔믣싊뗄떯탔ꛂ2뗄럻뫅좡뻶폚뇟볊돉놾폫닺돶뗄맘쾵,ꛂ1뎣뎣놻돆캪믣싊뒫뗝쾵쫽ꆣ뷸튻늽뿉틔쟳뗃쿠뛔볛룱Xit뛔믣싊St뗄떯탔ꛁ1캪:ꛁ1=1+ꛂ1-ꛂ2(3)ꆡꆡꛁ1놻돆캪PTM떯탔,헢쫇Marston(1990)뗄퇐뺿훘뗣ꆣMarston뾼싇쇋솽훖쟩탎ꆣ뗚튻훖쟩탎볙짨솽룶볓돉몯쫽뛔볛룱뗄떯탔뚼캪쇣,퓲볓돉몯쫽캪뎣쫽,쓇쎴룹뻝뚨볛닟싔쿠뛔볛룱튲캪뎣쫽,헢훖쟩뿶쿂PTM떯탔캪0ꆣ퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,볙죧뇟볊돉놾쯦닺돶뗝퓶,놾뇒뇡횵붫떼훂맺쓚볛룱짏헇,춬쪱틔놾뇒뇭쪾뗄돶뿚볛룱튲짏짽,쓇쎴틔췢뇒뇭쪾뗄돶뿚볛룱쿂붵럹뛈붫킡폚놾뇒뗄뇡횵럹뛈,튲뻍쫇쮵믣싊횻쫇늿럖뒫뗝뗄(-1<ꛂ1<0)ꆣ뗚뛾훖쟩탎볙짨솽룶볓돉몯쫽뛔볛룱뗄떯탔뚼킡폚쇣,헢훖쟩탎냼삨쇋맣랺뗄탨쟳몯쫽ꆣ틲캪놾뇒뇡횵붵뗍쇋틔췢뇒뇭쪾뗄돶뿚볛룱,쓇쎴뻍퓶볓쇋틔췢뇒뇭쪾뗄돉놾볓돉,쯹틔췢뇒뇭쪾뗄닺욷볛룱쿂붵,떫럹뛈킡폚믵뇒뇡횵싊,벴믣싊뒫뗝쫇늻췪좫뗄(ꛂ1<1)ꆣ죧맻뇟볊돉놾캪뎣쫽,쓇쎴맺쓚볛룱캪뎣쫽,쯹틔틔놾뇒뇭쪾뗄맺쓚췢닺욷볛룱쯦ퟅ놾뇒뇡횵닮뻠늻뛏퓶듳(ꛁ1>0)ꆣ죧맻뇟볊돉놾쯦닺돶뗝퓶,쓇쎴놾뇒뇡횵퓶볓쇋맺쓚볛룱(ꛂ2>0),떫쫇복짙쇋돉놾볓돉,틔놾뇒뇭쪾뗄맺쓚췢닺욷볛룱닮뻠쯦ퟅ놾뇒뇡횵춬퇹늻뛏퓶듳ꆣ쯹틔늻싛뇟볊돉놾쯦닺돶뗝퓶뮹쫇늻뇤,PTM떯탔뚼퓚0뫍1횮볤(0<ꛁ1<1)ꆣMarston(1990)뛔죕놾뗄17룶ퟮ훕닺욷뗄볬퇩뗃돶PTM떯탔퓚0뫍1횮볤,쯹틔믣싊뛔볛룱뗄펰쿬폫뗚뛾훖쟩탎튻훂,떱죕풪뇡횵(짽횵)쪱,쿠뛔폚맺쓚볛룱죕놾뎧쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚5웚ꆡꆤ6ꆤ
ꆡꆡ쪩붨뮴ꆡ뢵탛맣ꆡꆡ짌쳡룟(붵뗍)쇋놾뇒뇭쪾뗄돶뿚볛룱,듓뛸복짙쇋췢뇒뇭쪾뗄닺욷볛룱뗄뇤뮯,벴믣싊뒫뗝쫇늻췪좫뗄ꆣ(뛾)쫐뎡럝뛮폫내쫐뎡뚨볛뎧짌퓚쎿룶쪱뿌뚼폐튻뚨뗄쿻럑좺쳥,벴폐튻뚨뗄쫐뎡럝뛮ꆣ뛸쫐뎡럝뛮평뎧짌뗄뚨볛닟싔뻶뚨,죧맻뎧짌쿠뛔폚쯼뗄뺺헹헟쳡룟볛룱,쓇쎴쫐뎡럝뛮붫복짙,랴횮쫐뎡럝뛮붫삩듳ꆣ떱돶뿚뎧짌쏦쇙튻룶폐샻뗄믣싊뇤뚯(죧쿖뗘믵뇒뛔놾뇒짽횵)쪱,쯼볈뿉틔톡퓱쿭쫜평듋듸살뗄샻죳뗄퓶볓,튲뿉틔톡퓱붵뗍쿖뗘믵뇒볛룱,컼틽룼뛠뿍뮧틔삩듳쫐뎡럝뛮ꆣ랴횮,떱쏦쇙튻룶늻샻뗄믣싊뇤뚯(죧쿖뗘믵뇒뛔놾뇒뇡횵)쪱,돶뿚뎧짌뿉놣돖볛룱늻뇤틔캬돖쫐뎡럝뛮,믲헟춨맽쳡룟쿖뗘믵뇒볛룱살복짙쯰쪧,뺡맜믡쪧좥튻킩뿍뮧ꆣ쫐뎡럝뛮뻶뚨쇋뎧짌캴살뗄쫕틦,쯹틔뛔폚ퟛ뫏뾼싇떱잰뫍캴살ퟜ샻죳뗄돶뿚뎧짌,쏦뛔튻뚨뗄믣싊뇤뚯믡뾼싇룄뇤볛룱떼훂뗄쫐뎡럝뛮뗄뇤뚯,헢퇹튲뻍떼훂쇋폫췪좫뺺헹쿂늻튻퇹뗄뚨볛닟싔ꆣ듋췢,뿉틔풤웚쏦뛔튻쪱탔뗄믣싊돥믷뫍쏦뛔돖뻃탔믣싊돥믷뎧짌볛룱뗷헻탐캪튲믡늻춬ꆣ뛔쫐뎡럝뛮뗄훘쫓붫뻶뚨돶뿚뎧짌뗄내쫐뎡뚨볛탐캪,헢붫떼훂쿖쪵훐믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝ꆣDohner(1984)퓋폃튻룶컞쿞웚뷧뗄뿧쪱ퟮ폅뮯쒣탍퇐뺿쇋쏦뛔믣싊뇤뚯돶뿚뎧짌뗄뚨볛탐캪ꆣDohner뗄튻룶맘볼볙짨쫇쿻럑헟뛔늻춬뎧짌볛룱닮틬뗷헻ퟔ벺뗄탨쟳탨튪쪱볤,틲듋뛔폚짌욷뗄탨쟳뻟폐햳탔ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵캴살뗄탨쟳틀삵폚쿖퓚뗄탨쟳ꆣ뾼싇떽탨쟳햳탔,뎧짌뗄쫐뎡럝뛮뻍쿱놾탔닺,헢퇹뎧짌뗄뚨볛뻶닟뻟폐솽훘ퟷ폃:ퟷ캪떱잰쫕틦뗄튻룶뻶뚨틲쯘틔벰ퟷ캪튻쿮춶뻶닟ꆣ룄뇤돶뿚뎧짌뇟볊돉놾뗄돥믷(죧믣싊뇤뚯)떼훂뎧짌훘탂좷뚨볛룱,뛸헢믡펰쿬떱잰뫍캴살뗄쫕틦ꆣ쯹틔돶뿚뎧짌뗄뻶닟쫴폚뿧쪱뻶닟ꆣ퓚탨쟳뻟폐햳탔뗄쟩뿶쿂,샻죳ퟮ듳뮯뎧짌쏦뛔믣싊뇤뮯쪱믡틀뻝쯼뗄뇟볊돉놾ꆢ쿻럑헟뇤뮻뎧짌쯙뛈틔벰뛔캴살믣싊뗄웚췻살뗷헻볛룱ꆣDohner(1984)뗄쒣탍뇭쏷,쏦뛔튻쪱탔뗄믣싊돥믷,돶뿚뎧짌뗄랴펦쫇뷏킡뗘룄뇤쿖뗘믵뇒볛룱,틔놣돖풭폐뗄쫐뎡럝뛮ꆣ믣싊뇤뚯풽뛌퓝,돶뿚뎧짌뚨볛랴펦풽킡ꆣ헢훖뚨볛탐캪,쫇평폚돶뿚뎧짌뛔폚돉놾뗄튻쪱탔뇤뮯늻첫풸틢뗷헻웤퓚쫐뎡럝뛮짏뗄춶쯹훂ꆣ틲캪튻쪱탔뗄믣싊뇤뚯뷡쫸뫳돶뿚뎧짌벴쪹붫볛룱믖뢴떽풭살뗄쮮욽,탨쟳(믲쫐뎡럝뛮)튲늻믡뫜뿬믖뢴떽풭살쮮욽,듓뛸샻죳쮮욽늻쫇ퟮ폅ꆣ헢퇹,퓚튻쪱탔뗄믣싊뇤뚯돥믷쿂,돶뿚뎧짌퓚룷룶쿺쫛쫐뎡뗄볛룱뇤뚯붫뇈뺲첬쒣탍풤퇔뗄뇤뚯튪킡ꆣ헢훖뚨볛탐캪,뿉틔뛔뢡뚯믣싊쪱웚쯹맛달떽뗄쎳틗욷퓚늻춬쫐뎡쿠뛔볛쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚5웚ꆡꆤ7ꆤ
ꆡꆡ믣싊뒫뗝샭싛컄쿗ퟛ쫶룱뗄늨뚯(벴욫샫튻볛램퓲)룸돶튻룶뷢쫍ꆣ퓚뢡뚯믣싊훆쿂,믣싊뗄늨뚯훷튪쫇평폚믵뇒돥믷,듳뚼쫇튻쪱탔뗄,쯹틔쎳틗욷볛룱뛔믣싊뇤뚯뗄랴펦쫇쫜떽틖훆뗄,틔훁폚쎳틗욷볛룱뗄뇤뚯튪킡폚믣싊늨뚯ꆣ돶뿚뎧짌붫듳쳥짏놣돖웤퓚쎿튻룶쫐뎡뗄볛룱늻뇤,춨맽뗷헻샻죳뿕볤살쿻뮯믣싊늨뚯뗄펰쿬ꆣ죧맻뎧짌뗄쫐뎡럝뛮폫짏웚뎧짌뗄뚨볛틔벰뺺헹뎧짌뗄뚨볛폐맘,쓇쎴쏦뛔믣싊뇤뚯,뎧짌룄뇤볛룱쪱뻍믡풤웚웤뛔쿂웚쫐뎡럝뛮뗄펰쿬,뷸뛸뛔ퟜ샻죳뗄펰쿬ꆣ춬쪱믣싊뇤뚯튲펰쿬샻싊,듓뛸룄뇤쳹쿖싊,룄뇤뎧짌뛔쫐뎡럝뛮뗄훘쫓돌뛈,뷸뛸펰쿬뚨볛닟싔ꆣFroot뫍Klemperer(1989)춨맽튻룶솽웚쫐뎡럝뛮쒣탍럖컶쇋믣싊뇤뚯뛔뎧짌뚨볛탐캪뗄펰쿬ꆣ쒣탍볙짨뗚뛾웚뗄탨쟳(듓뛸샻죳)틀삵폚뗚튻웚뗄쫐뎡럝뛮,뛸뗚튻웚뗄쫐뎡럝뛮폫뗚튻웚뗄볛룱쿠맘,쫂쪵짏뚨볛쫇뎧짌뛔쫐뎡럝뛮뷸탐춶뗄쫖뛎,룼뗍뗄볛룱퓶볓쇋뎧짌뗄쫐뎡럝뛮,룼듳뗄쫐뎡럝뛮퓲퓶볓쇋뎧짌뗄뗚뛾웚샻죳ꆣ쓇쎴놾맺(쏀맺)뎧짌ퟜ뗄샻죳캪:ꛐD=ꛐDDF1(p,p)+ꛋDꛐD2(ꛒDDF(p,p),e2)(4)ꆡꆡ뛸췢맺뎧짌뗄ퟜ샻죳캪:ꛐF=e1ꛐFDF1(p,p,e1)+ꛋFe2ꛐFF2(ꛒFD(p,p),e2)(5)ꆡꆡ웤훐e1ꆢe2럖뇰캪뗚튻웚뫍뗚뛾웚뗄믣싊,믣싊폃떥캻쏀풪뗄췢뇒볛룱뇭쪾,ꛐ1ꆢꛐ2럖뇰캪뗚튻웚뫍뗚뛾웚뗄샻죳ꆣꛒ캪쫐뎡럝뛮,쯼폫뗚튻웚뗄볛룱쿠맘ꆣꛋ캪쳹쿖싊,룹뻝컞뗖늹샻싊욽볛쳵볾,ꛋD=ꛋFe2/e1=ꛋ,룸뚨ꛋF캪뎣쫽ꆣ뎧짌톡퓱뗚튻웚뗄볛룱틔쪹ퟜ샻죳ퟮ듳뮯ꆣ춨맽뛔ퟮ폅뮯컊쳢뗄튻뷗쳵볾좫캢럖뿉틔뗃돶틽훂뗄볛룱몯쫽,쯼뇭쏷볛룱폫쎿튻웚뗄돉놾뫍쳹쿖싊폐맘ꆣ믣싊뇤뚯뛔뎧짌뚨볛탐캪뗄펰쿬듦퓚솽훖킧펦,벴돉놾킧펦뫍샻싊킧펦ꆣ췢맺뎧짌쎿튻웚뗄돉놾폫믣싊폐맘,떱잰쏀풪짽횵복짙쇋췢맺뎧짌뗚튻웚폃쏀풪뇭쪾뗄돉놾,벤샸췢맺뎧짌붵뗍퓚쏀맺뗄쿺쫛볛룱,떱쫐뎡럝뛮웰ퟷ폃쪱,췢맺뎧짌뗚뛾웚돉놾펰쿬웤뗚뛾웚뗄샻죳듓뛸펰쿬웤뗚튻웚뗄뚨볛뻶닟(뻶뚨뎧짌뗄쫐뎡럝뛮)ꆣ틲듋,뿉틔풤볆죧맻췢맺뎧짌풤웚캴살쏀풪짽횵,쯼붫붵뗍퓚쏀맺뗄쿺쫛볛룱ꆣ헢쫇믣싊뇤뚯뗄돉놾킧펦ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦,ퟜ샻죳폫쳹쿖싊폐맘,튲뻍폫믣싊뇤뚯폐맘,틲캪믣싊뇤뚯듦퓚샻싊킧펦ꆣ룹뻝샻싊욽볛쳵볾뿉횪,튻쪱탔쏀풪짽횵쳡룟쇋쏀풪샻싊,듓뛸붵뗍쇋쳹쿖횵,쪹뗃췢맺뎧짌틔쏀풪뇭쪾뗄캴살샻죳쿠뛔폚떱웚샻죳볛횵뇤킡,틲듋뎧짌퓚쫐뎡럝뛮짏뗄춶믘놨붵뗍,뎧짌룼폅뗄톡퓱쫇쳡룟떱웚퓚쏀쿺쫛볛룱쪹웤ퟜ샻죳퓶볓ꆣ쯹틔떱쏀풪튻쪱탔짽횵쪱,샻싊킧펦쟣쿲폚쳡룟췢맺뎧짌퓚쏀쿺쫛볛룱ꆣ쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚5웚ꆡꆤ8ꆤ
ꆡꆡ쪩붨뮴ꆡ뢵탛맣ꆡꆡ평폚솽훖킧펦뛔뎧짌뚨볛탐캪뗄펰쿬랽쿲쿠랴,쯹틔튻쪱탔쏀풪짽횵뛔볛룱ퟜ뗄펰쿬늻좷뚨ꆣ뛸뛔폚돖뻃탔뗄믣싊뇤뚯,샻싊킧펦늻듦퓚(틲캪떱웚뫍캴살샻죳뗄쿠뛔볛횵늻뇤뮯),쏀풪돖뻃탔짽횵쪹뗃췢맺뎧짌붵뗍틔쏀풪뇭쪾뗄볛룱ꆣ쯹틔튻쪱탔뗄믣싊뇤뚯쿠뛔폚돖뻃탔뗄믣싊뇤뚯뛔쏀맺뷸뿚볛룱폐룼뗍뗄뒫뗝싊ꆣ20쫀볍80쓪듺돵뗄쏀풪짽횵놻쫐뎡죏캪쫇튻쪱탔뗄ꆣ샽죧,쏀맺톧헟퓚80쓪듺헫뛔뎧짌뗄컊뻭뗷닩뇭쏷,1982ꆫ1985쓪믘듰헟뚼죏캪퓚12룶퓂쓚쏀풪붫믡뇡횵,틲듋,Froot뫍Klem2perer(1989)뗄쫐뎡럝뛮쒣탍뿉틔뷏뫃뗘뷢쫍80쓪듺쏀풪믣싊뇤뚯뛔쏀맺뷸뿚볛룱뗍뒫뗝뗄쿖쿳ꆣDohner(1984)폫Froot뫍Klemperer(1989)뗄쒣탍폅뗣퓚폚뾼싇쇋뚯첬틲쯘,떫쫇쒣탍횻듓탨쟳쏦뾼싇볛룱뗷헻펰쿬뎧짌쫐뎡럝뛮뗄틲쯘,틲듋헢샠쒣탍횻쫊폃폚릩룸쓜솦캪컞쿞뗄쟩탎ꆣ쫂쪵짏,쯦ퟅ믣싊뗄뇤뚯,뎧짌늢늻뗈뇈샽뗄뗷헻볛룱튲폐ퟔ짭릩룸랽쏦뗄풭틲,틲듋튻킩톧헟듓릩룸쏦뗄돉놾틲쯘럖컶믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝,죏캪훷튪풭틲쫇뎧짌뷸죫쫐뎡듦퓚돁쎻돉놾믲헟뎧짌뗷헻릩룸폐튻뚨뗄뗷헻돉놾ꆣ(죽)돁쎻돉놾ꆢ뗷헻돉놾폫내쫐뎡뚨볛뎧짌뷸죫맺볊쫐뎡쪱믡랢짺뷸죫돉놾,죧캪탻뒫ퟔ벺뗄닺욷춶죫뗄맣룦럑,틔벰붨솢펪쿺췸싧뷸탐뗄춶뗈ꆣ헢킩돉놾췹췹쫇돁쎻돉놾,벴떱뎧짌췋돶맺볊쫐뎡쪱,쯼쏇늻쓜놻쫕믘ꆣ돁쎻돉놾뗄듦퓚쪹뗃튻쪱탔뗄믣싊뇤뚯뿉쓜뛔쿖뗘쎳틗욷뗄볛룱뫍쫽솿닺짺돖탸뗄펰쿬ꆣ떱믣싊믘떽풭살뗄쮮욽쪱,평폚뷸죫(췋돶)맺볊쫐뎡뗄뎧짌뿉쓜늻믡훘탂톡퓱췋돶(뷸죫),쫐뎡뷡릹늻랢짺뇤뮯,쯹틔볛룱뫍닺솿늻쓜믘맩떽풭살뗄쮮욽,헢훖쿖쿳돆캪동훍쿖쿳(hysteresis)ꆣBaldwin(1988)붨솢쇋튻룶뎧짌뚯첬뿧쪱탐캪쒣탍,퇐뺿쇋튻쪱탔믣싊돥믷쿂뗄뷸뿚볛룱동훍쿖쿳ꆣ볙짨믣싊췪좫풤웚,맺쓚쫐뎡짏폐놾맺뫍췢맺솽샠뎧짌,뎧짌쫽쒿ퟜ뫍캪mꆣ쫐뎡뷸죫돉놾F캪돁쎻돉놾,쎿룶놾맺뫍췢맺뎧짌ퟮ듳뮯펪튵샻죳(벴늻뾼싇F헢튻만뚨돉놾쪱뗄샻죳)럖뇰볇캪Sꛓ뫍3Sꛓ,퓲죧맻싺ퟣ쳵볾(1):Sꛓ>F3,Sꛓ>F,ꛓ웚놾맺ꆢ췢맺뎧짌톡퓱뷸죫쫐뎡,죧맻싺ퟣ쳵볾3(2):Sꛓ<0,Sꛓ<0,퓚캻뗄놾맺ꆢ췢맺뎧짌톡퓱췋돶쫐뎡ꆣ짨돵쪼뗄쇣웚믣싊쮮욽캪0e,튻쪱탔믣싊돥믷뚨틥캪듓1웚뾪쪼믣싊쳸떽E,떽T웚폖믘떽돵쪼믣싊쮮욽ꆣ볙짨돵쪼쪱틔놾뇒뫢솿뗄솽맺뇟볊돉놾쿠뗈,퓲Sꛓ뫍3Sꛓ쿠뗈,붫쯼쏇볇캪SbꆣSbm쫇m뗄뗝복몯쫽,틲듋듦퓚솽룶랧횵md뫍mu,럖뇰뛔펦폚Sbm=F뫍Sbm=0ꆣ쯹틔떱m<md쪱,쳵볾(1)싺ퟣ,폐뎧짌뷸죫맺쓚쫐뎡;떱m>mu쪱,쳵볾(2)싺ퟣ,폐뎧짌췋돶쫐뎡;떱md<m<mu쪱컞뎧짌뷸죫믲췋돶ꆣ쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚5웚ꆡꆤ9ꆤ
ꆡꆡ믣싊뒫뗝샭싛컄쿗ퟛ쫶쫐뎡훐뗄뎧짌쫽쒿폫믣싊돥믷폐맘ꆣ듦퓚쿔훸뗄돁쎻돉놾뗄쟩뿶쿂,뛔폚튻룶튻쪱탔뗄킡뗄믣싊돥믷,뎧짌늻듳뿉쓜ퟶ돶뷸죫쫐뎡뗄랴펦ꆣ죧맻쿻럑헟뛔짌욷욷없뇭쿖돶튻뚨뗄훒돏,듓뛸붵뗍뎧짌뷸죫쫐뎡좡ퟣ릻뛠뗄돵쪼샻죳뗄뿉쓜탔,뎧짌맘폚뷸죫쫐뎡뗄뻶닟믡뷸튻늽쫜떽ퟨ낭ꆣ춬퇹,틑뷸죫쫐뎡뗄뎧짌믡췆동췋돶쫐뎡,뺡맜늻쓜쏖늹뿉뇤돉놾,떫뎧짌튲믡톡퓱볌탸쇴퓚쫐뎡ꆣ틲캪죧맻톡퓱췋돶,돽쇋즥쪧퓚뎧짌탅폾뫍탎쿳짏뗄춶틔벰웤쯻돁쎻돉놾췢,뎧짌튲믡뾼싇붫살훘탂뷸죫쫐뎡쪱튪랢짺뗄돉놾,쳘뇰쫇죧맻믣싊뇤뚯쫇튻쪱탔뗄ꆣ쯹틔Baldwin(1988)붫믣싊돥믷럖돉솽샠:늻틽웰쫐뎡뷸죫믲췋돶뗄돥믷뚨틥캪킡뗄믣싊돥믷,뛸틽웰쫐뎡뷸죫믲췋돶뗄돥믷뚨틥캪듳뗄믣싊돥믷ꆣ죴퓚1웚믣싊폐킡뗄뇤뚯,T웚뫳믘떽돵쪼믣싊,퓲평폚듋쪱ퟮ듳뮯펪튵샻죳죔늻싺ퟣ쳵볾(1)ꆢ(2),쯹틔컞뎧짌뷸죫믲췋돶,쫐뎡뷡릹늻뇤,듓뛸뷸뿚볛룱튲늻뇤ꆣ죴퓚1웚랢짺듳뗄믣싊짏짽(쿂붵),퓲폐맺췢뎧짌뷸죫(췋돶)맺쓚쫐뎡,뎧짌쫽쒿뇤돉m1>mu(m2<md),듋쪱뷸뿚볛룱랢짺쿠펦뗄뇤뮯ꆣT웚뫳믣싊믘떽돵쪼쮮욽쪱,퓚쫐뎡폐m1(m2)룶뎧짌쿂쳵볾(1)ꆢ(2)늻싺ퟣ,쯹틔쫐뎡짏뎧짌쫽쒿놣돖캪m1(m2),헢퇹뷸뿚볛룱돖뻃탔뗘늻춬폚믣싊뇤뮯잰뗄쮮욽,뷸뿚볛룱돶쿖동훍쿖쿳ꆣBaldwin(1988)뗄동훍쒣탍뇭쏷횻튪믣싊뇤뚯랢짺퓚튻뚨뗄쟸볤쓚,쫐뎡짏뗄뺺헹ힴ뿶붫놣돖늻뇤,뷸죫쫐뎡냩쯦뗄돁뗭돉놾풽듳,헢룶쟸볤풽뿭,붫떼훂튻룶뗍뗄믣싊뒫뗝싊ꆣ좻뛸,죧맻믣싊뇤뚯ퟣ릻듳틔훁폚뎧짌붫ퟶ돶뷸죫믲췋돶쫐뎡뗄뻶닟,붫떼훂쫐뎡뷡릹돖뻃탔뗘룄뇤,헢쪱믣싊뒫뗝싊붫믡짏짽ꆣ퓚Baldwin(1988)뗄쒣탍훐믣싊쫇췪좫풤웚뗄,Baldwin뫍Krugman(1989)췘햹쇋Baldwin(1988)뗄쒣탍,볙짨믣싊쫇쯦믺뇤뚯뗄,럾듓뛀솢춬럖늼뗄맽돌;뎧짌뗄펪튵샻죳Y쫇믣싊E뗄퓶몯쫽ꆣ뎧짌뗄돁쎻돉놾냼삨뷸죫돉놾N뫍캬돖돉놾M,볙짨N>Mꆣ죧맻짏웚뎧짌퓚쫐뎡훐,쓇쎴헢웚뎧짌죔좻쇴퓚쫐뎡훐뗄풤웚샻죳뗄쿖횵캪YE-M+ꛄVI;죧맻췋돶쫐뎡,퓲풤웚샻죳뗄쿖횵캪ꛄV0ꆣ웤훐VIꆢV0럖뇰캪짏웚퓚쫐뎡훐뗄뎧짌캴살쫕틦뗄쿖횵뫍짏웚췋돶쫐뎡뗄뎧짌캴살쫕틦뗄쿖횵,ꛄ캪쳹쿖싊ꆣ샠쯆뗘,죧맻짏웚뎧짌늻퓚쫐뎡훐,쓇쎴헢웚뎧짌뷸죫쫐뎡뗄풤웚샻죳쿖횵캪YE-N+ꛄVI;뛸죧맻톡퓱볌탸쇴퓚쫐뎡횮췢,퓲풤웚샻죳뗄쿖횵캪ꛄV0ꆣ쇮뎧짌뷸죫뫍췋돶뗄믣싊랧횵캪EI뫍E0,평폚Y쫇믣싊E뗄퓶몯쫽틔벰N>M,뿉틔췆돶EI>E0ꆣ틲듋죧맻짏웚뎧짌늻퓚쫐뎡훐,퓲횻폐놾웚믣싊듳폚EI쪱뎧짌닅믡톡퓱뷸죫쫐뎡,쿠랴,죧맻짏웚뎧짌퓚쫐뎡훐,퓲횻폐놾웚믣싊킡폚E0쪱뎧짌닅믡톡퓱췋돶쫐뎡ꆣ쯹틔떱믣싊폐듳뗄늨뚯쪱뿉쓜믡떼훂뎧짌뷸죫믲췋돶쫐뎡,뛸떱믣싊믖쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚5웚ꆡꆤ10ꆤ
ꆡꆡ쪩붨뮴ꆡ뢵탛맣ꆡꆡ뢴떽풭살쮮욽쪱뎧짌늢늻믡훘탂췋돶믲뷸죫쫐뎡,믣싊늨뚯뛔뷸뿚볛룱믡폐돖탸뗄펰쿬,벴뷸뿚볛룱돊쿖동훍쿖쿳ꆣ뷸뿚볛룱동훍킧펦뛔믣싊뒫뗝싊뗄틢틥폫Baldwin(1988)뗄퇐뺿쿠춬ꆣBaldwin(1988)ꆢBaldwin뫍Krugman(1989)뛔믣싊뇤뚯맽돌뚼ퟶ쇋뷏캪볲떥뗄볙짨,폫뢡뚯믣싊쿖쪵훐뗄믣싊퓋뚯늻쿠컇뫏ꆣDixit(1989)뾼싇쇋룼캪쿖쪵뗄믣싊맽돌,볙짨믣싊퓋뚯싺ퟣ늼샊퓋뚯(뛔펦폚샫즢뎡뫏뗄쯦믺폎ퟟ맽돌),헢퇹쪶뇰뗄뫃뒦쫇뿉틔냑뎧짌뷸죫뫍췋돶쫐뎡뗄톡퓱쫓캪웚좨ꆣ믣싊늨뚯풽듳,뷸죫뫍췋돶웚좨뗄볛횵풽듳,틲뛸뎧짌풽늻믡쟡틗횴탐,헢돉캪떼훂뷸뿚볛룱동훍쿖쿳뗄튻룶탂틲쯘ꆣ떱놾뇒짽횵떽튻룶뷏룟뗄쮮욽,췢맺뎧짌폐틢풸뷸죫놾맺쫐뎡,쯼붫퓚뛌웚쓚쓜믱뗃뗄샻죳폫톡퓱뗈듽뗄웚좨볛횵횮볤뷸탐좨뫢ꆣ쇮In뇭쪾헢퇹뗄믣싊쮮욽,퓚룃쮮욽쿂,뛔폚쫐뎡틑듦퓚n-1룶뎧짌,뗚n룶뎧짌뷸죫쫐뎡쫇ퟮ폅톡퓱;쇮Dn뇭쪾헢퇹뗄믣싊쮮욽,퓚룃쮮욽쿂,뗚n룶뎧짌췋돶쫐뎡쫇ퟮ폅톡퓱,In뫍Dnퟷ캪n뗄몯쫽탎돉쇋튻룶뎧짌늻닉좡탐뚯뗄쟸볤ꆣ뛔폚죎뫎n,죧맻믣싊퓚In뫍Dn횮볤늨뚯,퓲볈쎻폐탂뎧짌뷸죫쫐뎡,튲쎻폐퓚쫐뗄뎧짌톡퓱췋돶,믣싊뇤뚯뛔뷸뿚볛룱쎻폐펰쿬,쯹틔믣싊뒫뗝싊캪쇣ꆣ믣싊뇤뚯횻폐뎬돶쟸볤Dn,In쪱,뎧짌닅믡횴탐웚좨벴톡퓱뷸죫믲췋돶쫐뎡ꆣ떱믣싊짏짽떽뇈In듳쪱,탂뗄췢맺뎧짌뷸죫쫐뎡,뷸뿚볛룱쿂뗸,믣싊뒫뗝싊붫믡짏짽ꆣ뷸죫쫐뎡뗄뎧짌붫믡튻횱쇴퓚쫐뎡훐돽럇믣싊뇤뚯ퟣ릻듳,붵뗍떽쇋Dn+1뗄쮮욽ꆣ헢퇹,믣싊뇤뚯떼훂뷸뿚볛룱뗄동훍쿖쿳,In뫍Dn릹돉뗄쟸볤풽뿭,뷸뿚볛룱동훍쿖쿳풽쿔훸ꆣ탨튪횸돶뗄쫇,Dixit(1989)캴뾼싇놾맺뎧짌퓶볓닺솿뗄쟩뿶,쯹틔룃쒣탍뗍맀쇋믣싊뒫뗝싊ꆣ돽쇋돁쎻돉놾뗄듦퓚헢튻틲쯘췢,뮹폐튻킩릩룸쏦뗄틲쯘쓜릻뷢쫍뎧짌뗄내쫐뎡뚨볛탐캪ꆣ샽죧Kasa(1992)붨솢쇋튻룶뗷헻돉놾쒣탍,퓚룃쒣탍훐슢뛏뎧짌퓚솽룶맺췢쫐뎡뷸탐쿺쫛,쿖쪵훐뎧짌튪톸쯙뗘삩헅믲쫕쯵웤퓚맺췢쫐뎡뗄퓋펪쪱,믡쏦뛔탭뛠릩룸뗷헻돉놾,뛔튻볛램퓲쾵춳뗄욫샫쫇평폚뗷헻돉놾떼훂릩룸췢맺늻춬쫐뎡뗄뇟볊돉놾듦퓚닮틬ꆣ캪쇋춻돶뗷헻돉놾뗄ퟷ폃,Kasa(1992)돩쿳뗴쇋볛룱웧쫓뗄틲쯘,쒣탍볙짨솽룶쫐뎡뗄탨쟳떯탔뚼캪뎣쫽,춬쪱캪쇋뇜쏢쪱볤늻튻훂,볙짨짌욷캪럇쓍폃욷ꆣ슢뛏뎧짌탨튪퓚욫샫ퟮ폅릩룸솿쯹뢶돶뗄돉놾폫붫릩룸솿뗷헻떽ퟮ폅쮮욽쯹랢짺뗄돉놾횮볤뷸탐좡짡,틔쪹ퟜ뗄돉놾듯떽ퟮ킡ꆣ평폚뗷헻돉놾뗄듦퓚,떱믣싊랢짺뇤뚯쪱,뎧짌퓚뻶뚨볛룱슷뺶쪱붫움맀믣싊뇤뚯뗄돖탸탔,뛔폚튻쪱탔뗄믣싊뇤뚯,뎧짌쟣쿲폚춨맽뗷헻샻죳뿕볤살컼쫕믣싊뇤뚯,뛸뛔폚돖뻃탔뗄믣싊뇤뚯,슢뛏뎧짌쟣쿲폚춨쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚5웚ꆡꆤ11ꆤ
ꆡꆡ믣싊뒫뗝샭싛컄쿗ퟛ쫶맽뗷헻릩룸살뛔믣싊뇤뚯ퟶ돶랴펦,쯹틔퓝쪱탔믣싊뇤뚯뷏횮돖뻃탔믣싊뇤뚯뛔쿖뗘볛룱뗄뒫뗝룼킡ꆣ죽ꆡ믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝뗄웤쯻돉틲퓬돉믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝뗄풭틲폐뫜뛠,뿉틔럖뇰듓캢맛뫍뫪맛뷇뛈뷸탐첽쳖ꆣ듓캢맛뷇뛈,돽쇋뎧짌내쫐뎡뚨볛탐캪췢,쳘뚨쫐뎡뷡릹뫍닺욷늻췪좫쳦듺탔ꆢ뿧맺릫쮾쓚늿붻틗틔벰럇맘쮰뇚생뗈뚼뿉쓜펰쿬믣싊뒫뗝ꆣ쇭췢튲폐튻킩뫪맛닣쏦뗄틲쯘뿉쓜펰쿬믣싊뒫뗝싊,뇈죧춨믵엲헍뮷뺳틔벰믵뇒헾닟ꆣ(튻)쫐뎡뷡릹ꆢ늻췪좫쳦듺폫믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝늻춬뗄뎧짌뺺헹탎쪽,벴늻춬뗄쫐뎡뷡릹뿉쓜믡떼훂뎧짌폐늻춬뗄뚨볛닟싔,쯹틔퓚늻춬뗄뺺헹탎쪽쿂,췢맺돶뿚뎧짌룹뻝믣싊뇤뚯뗷헻볛룱뗄닟싔튲믡늻춬,쫐뎡뷡릹뛔믣싊뒫뗝싊믡폐튻뚨뗄펰쿬,톧헟쏇랢햹쇋튻킩쒣탍살럖컶헢훖펰쿬ꆣ늻춬폚PTM쒣탍뾼싇춬튻맺볒짺닺뗄닺욷퓚늻춬맺볒뗄뚨볛탐캪,헢샠쒣탍뗄쳘뗣퓚폚뾼싇늻춬맺볒짺닺뗄춬샠닺욷퓚춬튻맺볒뗄뚨볛탐캪ꆣDornbusch(1987)퓋폃튻룶맅억(Cournot)뺺헹쒣탍뾼싇쇋헢훖펰쿬ꆣDornbusch뾼싇뗄짺닺벼쫵쫇쿟탔뗄,샍뚯쫇캩튻뗄춶죫튪쯘,볙짨폐n룶놾맺뫍3n룶췢맺뎧짌퓚놾맺(쏀맺)쫐뎡짏뷸탐뺺헹,늻춬뎧짌뗄닺욷뚼쫇춬훊뗄,탨쟳몯쫽캪Qd=a-bp,놾맺쫐뎡뗄ퟜ릩룸캪Q=nq+33nqꆣ맅억뻹뫢뷢뗃돶놾맺쫐뎡짏룃닺욷뗄뻹뫢볛룱캪:3p=(nw+new3)/N+a/bN(6)ꆡꆡ웤훐N=n+3n+1,e캪떥캻췢뇒뗄놾뇒(쏀풪)볛룱,w뫍w3럖뇰캪놾맺뫍췢맺뎧짌뗄떥캻샍뚯돉놾ꆣ쇮죋룐탋좤뗄쫇믣싊뇤뚯뛔뻹뫢볛룱뗄펰쿬돌뛈,평짏쪽뿉쟳돶뻹뫢볛룱뗄믣싊떯탔캪:ꛕ=3(n/N)(ew3/p)(7)ꆡꆡ룃릫쪽평솽쿮ퟩ돉:놾맺쫐뎡훐췢맺뎧짌뗄쿠뛔쫽쒿뫍췢맺뎧짌뇟볊돉놾폫뻹뫢볛룱뗄뇈ꆣ평폚헢솽쿮뚼킡폚1,쯹틔평짏쪽솢벴뿉뗃놾뇒짽횵떼훂뗄쫐뎡뻹뫢볛룱뗄쿂붵럹뛈튪킡폚짽횵뗄럹뛈,벴믣싊뒫뗝쫇늻췪좫뗄ꆣ룃닺튵뗄쫐뎡뺺헹풽벤쇒(벴뇟볊돉놾횮짏뗄볓돉풽킡),믣싊뒫뗝싊풽듳;뷸뿚욷퓚쫐뎡ퟜ쿺쫛훐뗄뇈샽풽듳,믣싊뒫뗝싊튲풽듳ꆣ뾼싇솽룶벫뛋쟩탎:(1)ꆰ킡맺ꆱ뺭볃뗄쟩탎,벴췪좫뺺헹뗄쫐뎡뷡릹뫍췢맺뎧짌쿠쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚5웚ꆡꆤ12ꆤ
ꆡꆡ쪩붨뮴ꆡ뢵탛맣ꆡꆡ뛔폚놾맺뎧짌뗄쫽쒿럇뎣뛠,평짏쪽,퓚헢훖쟩탎쿂믣싊뒫뗝싊쟷폚1,벴믣싊뇤뚯1뛔1뗘뒫뗝떽뷸뿚볛룱짏;(2)놾맺쫐뎡짏췢맺뎧짌쫽쒿벫뛋짙,퓚헢훖쟩탎쿂믣싊뒫뗝싊쟷폚0,믣싊뇤뚯뛔뷸뿚볛룱쎻폐펰쿬,벴췢맺뎧짌폃퓶듳샻죳뿕볤뛸늻쫇붵볛살펦뛔놾뇒(쏀풪)뗄짽횵ꆣ퓚Dornbusch(1987)뗄맅억쒣탍훐쫐뎡뷡릹,벴뷸뿚욷퓚놾맺쫐뎡릩룸훐뗄럝뛮쫇뷢쫍믣싊뇤뚯볛룱킧펦뗄맘볼틲쯘ꆣ늻춬폚Dornbusch(1987)맅억뺺헹쒣탍,Fisher(1989)뾼싇쇋쇭췢튻훖뺺헹탎쪽,벴Bertrand뺺헹,퇐뺿쇋뎧짌뚨볛닟싔뛔믣싊뒫뗝싊뗄펰쿬ꆣ뷡맻쿔쪾맺쓚췢늻춬뗄믣싊훆뛈낲업틔벰늻춬뗄쫐뎡뷡릹뚼믡펰쿬쎿룶뎧짌뗄뚨볛닟싔,쯹틔믣싊뒫뗝싊쫜쫐뎡뷡릹틔벰믣싊훆뛈낲업뗄펰쿬ꆣ튻냣뗘,죧맻놾맺쫐뎡뗄슢뛏탔풽잿,틔벰췢맺쫐뎡뗄뺺헹탔풽잿,쓇쎴믣싊뛔뷸뿚볛룱뗄뒫뗝싊뻍풽룟ꆣ짏쫶쒣탍볙짨닺욷뚼쫇춬훊뗄,틲듋횻쫊폃폚맺쓚췢닺욷춬훊탔뷏잿뗄닺튵,죧맻춬튻닺튵맺쓚췢닺욷뗄닮틬탔뷏듳,뻍탨튪뾼싇닺욷늻췪좫쳦듺뗄쟩탎ꆣ닺욷횮볤뗄늻췪좫쳦듺튲쫇튻룶늻췪좫뺺헹뗄살풴,헢훖늻췪좫쳦듺탔뿉쓜쫇평닺욷뗄닄쇏ꆢ훊솿ꆢ럾컱뗈랽쏦뗄닮틬떼훂뗄ꆣ헢훖늻췪좫쳦듺탔뗄듦퓚떼훂탨쟳떯탔폫췪좫쳦듺쪱늻춬,믣싊뗄뇤뚯뿉쓜틽웰뗄뷸돶뿚볛룱뗄룄뇤튲믡폫췪좫쳦듺쪱늻춬ꆣDornbusch(1987)퓚Dixit뫍Stiglitz(1977)쒣탍뗄뿲볜쿂붨솢쇋닺욷늻췪좫쳦듺쒣탍,볙짨듺뇭탔쿻럑헟쿻럑솽훖짌욷z뫍x,쿻럑헟뗄킧폃몯쫽캪V=U(z,x),웤훐x쫇뛠훖늻춬욷없뗄춬훖닺욷뗄ퟩ뫏1/a,x=(ꇆax),0<a<1,헢킩닺욷럖뇰평n룶놾i맺뎧짌뫍3n룶췢맺뎧짌쳡릩,쎿룶뎧짌쳡릩튻룶욷없뗄닺욷ꆣ쒣탍쯹튪퇐뺿뗄쫇뎧짌뚨볛탐캪뛔돉놾돥믷뗄랴펦ꆣ평듺뇭탔놾맺뎧짌뗄ퟮ폅뮯컊쳢뗃돶뗄ퟮ폅뚨볛닟싔캪:pi=ꛁw(8)ꆡꆡ웤훐ꛁ=1/(1-1/c)캪돉놾볓돉,c=1/1-aꆣ춬퇹뿉틔뗃돶듺뇭탔췢맺뎧짌뗄뚨볛닟싔:pj=ꛁew3(9)ꆡꆡ평폚쳦듺떯탔c캪뎣쫽틔벰떥룶닺욷뗄볛룱룄뇤늻펰쿬ퟜ탨쟳,쯹틔돉놾볓돉캪뎣쫽ꆣ쒣탍쳡릩쇋뛔쏀풪(놾뇒)짽횵킧펦뗄풤닢:볙짨릤돉놾늻뇤,쓇쎴쏀풪짽횵붫떼훂뷸뿚욷볛룱틔내쏀풪뇭쪾뗄떥캻돉놾뗄쿂붵럹뛈쿂붵,뛸쏀맺맺쓚닺욷뗄볛룱붫놣돖늻뇤ꆣ헢퇹,쏀풪믣싊뇤뚯뛔뷸뿚볛룱뫍맺쓚췢닺욷쿠뛔볛룱폐췪좫뗄믣싊뒫뗝ꆣ죧맻냑헢튻쒣탍뷸탐삩햹,볙짨떥룶뎧짌돤럖듳,틔훁폚웤뚨볛뻶닟ퟣ틔룄뇤헻룶닺튵뗄볛룱,늢쟒볙짨닺튵볛룱1%뗄뇤뚯붫떼훂쎿룶뎧짌볛룱ꛒ냙럖뇈뗄뇤뚯ꆣퟶ쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚5웚ꆡꆤ13ꆤ
ꆡꆡ믣싊뒫뗝샭싛컄쿗ퟛ쫶쇋헢킩탞헽뫳떥룶뎧짌쏦뛔뗄탨쟳쟺쿟떼훂돉놾볓돉늻퓙쫇뎣쫽,헢쪱떥룶뎧짌뗄뚨볛닟싔뇤캪:pi=ꛁꇤw(10)ꆡꆡ웤훐ꛁꇤ=1/1-1/c(1-ꛅ),ꛅ=dP/P)/(dPi/P,P캪헻룶닺튵뗄볛룱,ꛅi뿌뮭쇋뎧짌뚨볛뻶닟뗄쿠뮥틀듦ꆣ평듋뿉틔췆돶췢맺뎧짌뗄볛룱랴펦몯쫽캪:pj=F3(pi/pj,ꛒ,c)ew3(11)ꆡꆡ죧맻쏀풪(놾뇒)짽횵,쓇쎴쏀맺뷸뿚볛룱붫쿂뗸,떫쫇쿂뗸럹뛈튪뇈쏀풪짽횵럹뛈킡,헢쫇평폚돉놾볓돉쯦ퟅ닺욷볛룱뗄뇤뚯믡폐쿠펦뗄뇤뚯뛸틽웰ꆣ헢퇹,믣싊뒫뗝붫쫇늻췪좫뗄ꆣYang(1997)삩햹쇋Dornbusch(1987)뗄쒣탍,볙짨쇋뗝퓶뗄뇟볊돉놾늢쟒춬퇹볙짨뎧짌뗄볛룱뿉틔펰쿬헻룶닺튵뗄볛룱,ퟮ뫳쒣탍뗃돶뷡싛:뷸뿚짌욷볛룱뗄믣싊뒫뗝싊틀삵폚놾맺뫍췢맺닺욷뗄쳦듺돌뛈ꆢ뇟볊돉놾뛔닺돶뗄떯탔틔벰췢맺뎧짌뗄쫐뎡럝뛮ꆣ풽룟뗄쳦듺떯탔틢캶ퟅ볛룱뗄퓶볓풽죝틗쪧좥쿻럑헟,쯹틔쏦뛔믣싊뗄늨뚯췢맺뎧짌룼뿉쓜놣돖쿖뗘믵뇒(쏀풪)볛룱늻뇤,벴믣싊뒫뗝폫쳦듺떯탔뢺쿠맘ꆣ평폚뇟볊돉놾뛔닺돶뗄떯탔캪헽,췢맺믵뇒뗄짽횵붫떼훂놾맺뛔췢맺닺욷뗄탨쟳복짙,뷸뛸떼훂뇟볊돉놾복킡,쯹틔뷸뿚볛룱퓶볓뗄럹뛈킡폚췢맺믵뇒뗄짽횵럹뛈,믣싊뒫뗝폫뇟볊돉놾뛔닺돶뗄떯탔뢺쿠맘ꆣ쇭췢,믣싊뒫뗝싊튲폫췢맺뎧짌뗄쫐뎡럝뛮뢺쿠맘ꆣꆡꆡꆡ짏쫶쒣탍뚼볙짨뎧짌뗷헻볛룱쫇췪좫떯탔뗄,틲듋뛌웚믣싊뒫뗝싊폫뎤웚믣싊뒫뗝싊췪좫쿠뗈ꆣ떫쫇쿖쪵훐뎧짌뗷헻볛룱뻟폐튻뚨뗄햳탔,틲듋뛌웚믣싊뒫뗝싊뿉쓜폫뎤웚믣싊뒫뗝싊늢늻쿠뗈ꆣ튻킩톧헟죏캪믣싊췪좫뒫뗝뷶퓚뛌웚늻돉솢뛸뎤웚죔좻싺ퟣꆣGiovnnini(1988)퓚믣싊늻췪좫풤웚뗄쟩뿶쿂뾼싇쇋뎧짌퓚놾맺뫍맺췢춬쪱돶쫛닺욷쪱뗄뚨볛닟싔,뷡맻뇭쏷믣싊뛔쎳틗욷볛룱뗄뒫뗝틀삵폚돶뿚닺욷뗄볆볛믵뇒ꆣ떱돶뿚닺욷틔돶뿚맺믵뇒볆볛쪱,믣싊뗄늻췪좫뒫뗝쫇평폚볛룱웧쫓뫍PTM뗄듦퓚,뛸떱돶뿚닺욷틔뷸뿚맺믵뇒볆볛쪱,볛룱웧쫓뫍풤웚킧펦춬쪱떼훂쇋믣싊뗄늻췪좫뒫뗝,틲듋평폚풤웚뗄틲쯘,믣싊뒫뗝싊튲틀삵폚쏻틥믣싊뗄쯦믺쳘탔ꆣGiovnnini(1988)뗄컄헂쫇탂뾪럅뺭볃뫪맛쒣탍퇐뺿믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝뗄훷튪쮼쿫돻탎ꆣ(뛾)뿧맺릫쮾쓚늿붻틗ꆢ럇맘쮰뇚생폫믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝늼샗뛙즭쇖쳥쾵뇀삣뫳,훷튪릤튵뮯맺볒뚼닉좡쇋뢡뚯믣싊훆뛈,뢡뚯믣싊훆뛈떼훂췢믣쫐뎡룼볓늻컈뚨ꆣ쏦뛔믣싊늻좷뚨뗄늨뚯,뿧맺릫쮾튻냣믡춨맽컈뚨닺욷돶쫛쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚5웚ꆡꆤ14ꆤ
ꆡꆡ쪩붨뮴ꆡ뢵탛맣ꆡꆡ쫐뎡볛룱뗄랽쪽살욽틖쫐뎡럝뛮뗄늨뚯ꆣ튻킩톧헟죏캪,뿧맺릫쮾쓚늿붻틗뫍럇맘쮰뇚생뗄듦퓚뿉틔펰쿬쎳틗닺욷뗄뚨볛탐캪,듓뛸튲뿉쓜떼훂믣싊뛔쎳틗욷볛룱뗄늻췪좫뒫뗝ꆣ믹폚뛔튻킩펢맺뎧짌퓚믣싊쿂붵뫳뗄뚨볛탐캪뗄퇐뺿,Holmes(1978)횸돶,펵폐쿺쫛좨뗄ퟓ릫쮾쪹뗃뎧짌뿉틔룼볓뺫좷뗄훆뚨쫊뫏떱뗘쫐뎡뗄볛룱,쯹틔뫜뛠펵폐쿺쫛좨ퟓ릫쮾뗄뎧짌붫쟣쿲폚내헕췢맺쫐뎡뗄믵뇒뚨볛ꆣ뿧맺릫쮾폐뫜뛠쫖뛎뫍랽램뿉틔폃살맦뇜믣싊뗄늨뚯뫍듳뗄돥믷,튻룶뎣폃뗄랽램쫇퓚뎧짌쓚늿붻틗훐펦폃쓚늿믣싊ꆣ평폚쓚늿믣싊뷶뷶ퟷ캪릫쮾쓚늿붻틗뗄돶쟥믺훆,쯹틔쓚늿믣싊뿉쓜폫췢늿쫐뎡짏뗄믣싊폐뫜듳뗄닮뇰ꆣ헢훖쓚늿믣싊뗄쪹폃춨뎣쫇캪쇋쪹뗃뿧맺릫쮾듯떽좫쟲샻죳ퟮ듳뮯,맽좥헢훖릤뻟뎣놻폃살뇜쏢듳뗄믣싊늨뚯떼훂뗄릫쮾쓚늿햮컱죋뗄쯰쪧(Helleiner,1985),춬쪱쪹뗃뷰내헕뿧맺릫쮾맘폚맺볊쇷뚯탔뗄헾닟퓚ퟓ릫쮾횮볤럖엤(Grassman,1973)ꆣ헢훖쓚늿믣싊튲뿉틔놻닙ퟷ폃살뗷뿘룷ퟓ릫쮾쯦믣싊늨뚯뗄뚨볛닟싔ꆣ폐횤뻝뇭쏷,퓚냄듳샻퇇뗄뿧맺릫쮾맣랺닉폃릫쮾쓚늿믣싊(PSA,1989),웤쫗튪쒿뗄쫇뇜쏢듳뗄믣싊뇤뚯뛸떼훂뗄듳뗄볛룱뇤뚯,쯹틔헢훖훆뛈뗄닉폃쪹뗃췢늿쫐뎡뗄믣싊폫뷸뿚볛룱횮볤뗄솪쾵놻듳듳뗘쿷죵,튲뻍쫇쮵복킡쇋믣싊뛔뷸뿚볛룱뗄뒫뗝싊ꆣ쇭췢,뿧맺릫쮾쓚늿붻틗뗄횧뢶쪱볤룼볓뻟폐떯탔,쏦뛔믣싊늨뚯,튻룶ퟓ릫쮾뿉틔톡퓱뛔ퟔ벺폐샻뗄쪱믺뷸탐횧뢶,Grassman(1973)횸돶뿧맺릫쮾쓚늿뷏짙폐퇏룱뗄횧뢶쳵볾,춨뎣뚼닉폃ퟔ평뗄횧뢶탎쪽ꆣ헢훖떯탔뗄횧뢶탎쪽뿉틔놣횤룷ퟓ릫쮾쓜릻룼볓뛀솢뗘내헕떱뗘쫐뎡뗄쟩뿶살훆뚨볛룱,뛸뷏짙뾼싇믣싊뇤뚯뛔릫쮾샻죳뗄펰쿬ꆣ뇈죧쒳룶맺볒뗄믵뇒뇡횵,웤몣췢뗄뫏ퟷ릩펦짌늻튪쟳솢벴내헕쫐뎡믣싊뷸탐횧뢶,뛸쫇췏퇓횧뢶쪱볤뗈듽믣싊뇤믘떽풭살쮮욽,쓇쎴퓚룃맺뗄ퟓ릫쮾룼폐뚯믺캪쇋늻복짙쫐뎡럝뛮뛸놣돖쿺쫛볛룱늻뇤ꆣCarse뗈(1980)랢쿖헢훖떯탔뗄훆뛈낲업쫇뿧맺릫쮾쳘폐뗄,쯼뇈뛀솢릫쮾뗄탅폃웚쿞춨뎣튪뎤ꆣ떫쫇뛔폚뿧맺릫쮾탅폃웚쿞뗄낲업튲쫇룹뻝쟩뿶떯탔뗘낲업,쯹틔쯼쫇뿧맺릫쮾뗄튻룶뿉톡퓱뇤솿ꆣ평폚뿧맺릫쮾쓚늿헢훖뿭쯉뗄횧뢶웚쿞낲업쪹뗃ퟓ릫쮾폐룼ퟔ평뗄뚨볛닟싔(MirusandYeung,1987),닉폃뷸뿚맺뗄믵뇒뷸탐뚨볛뿉틔쪹ퟓ릫쮾뗄샻죳뇜쏢쫜떽믣싊늨뚯뗄펰쿬(Menon,1993)ꆣ폐횤뻝쿔쪾,퓚냄듳샻퇇뿧맺릫쮾뗄ퟓ릫쮾춨뎣폃냄듳샻퇇풪쿲쒸릫쮾뷸탐횧뢶,쒸릫쮾돐떣쇋믣싊뇤뚯뗄럧쿕,ퟓ릫쮾뿉틔늻뾼싇믣싊뇤뚯뗄럧쿕뛸퓚냄듳샻퇇쫐뎡쪵쪩룼볓컈뚨뗄뚨볛닟싔ꆣퟜ횮,뿧맺릫쮾믡닉폃뫜뛠릤뻟뫍닟싔살맦뇜믣싊뇤뚯뗄럧쿕,듓뛸놣횤뿧맺릫쮾쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚5웚ꆡꆤ15ꆤ
ꆡꆡ믣싊뒫뗝샭싛컄쿗ퟛ쫶좫쟲샻죳ퟮ듳뮯,뛸뿧맺릫쮾닉폃뗄헢킩닟싔췹췹떼훂ퟓ릫쮾쯹퓚맺뗄쿺쫛볛룱뛔믣싊뇤뚯늻쏴룐,튲뻍떼훂쇋믣싊뛔뷸뿚볛룱뗄뒫뗝돌뛈복킡ꆣ럇맘쮰뇚생쫇펰쿬믣싊뒫뗝뗄쇭튻룶틲쯘ꆣ20쫀볍80쓪듺퓧웚쏀풪놻룟맀쪱,럇맘쮰뇚생튲쿔훸퓶볓,Bhagwati(1988)횸돶퓚뛔쏀맺믣싊뒫뗝뗄퇐뺿훐,럇맘쮰뇚생쫇놻뫶쫓뗄튻룶훘튪틲쯘ꆣBranson(1989)튲잿뗷쇋럇맘쮰뇚생뛔믣싊뒫뗝뗄펰쿬,횸돶퓚듦퓚럇맘쮰뇚생뗄쟩뿶쿂,믵뇒뇡횵쫗쿈떼훂쫜럇맘쮰뇚생풼쫸뗄뷸뿚뛮췢럑폃뗄쿂붵뛸늻쫇뷸뿚볛룱뗄짏짽ꆣ샽죧떱폐뷸뿚쫽솿쿞뛮듦퓚쪱,쏦뛔뷸뿚맺믵뇒뇡횵,죧맻뷸뿚쿞뛮죔좻폐킧,쓇쎴뷸뿚맺닺욷릩룸쎻폐룄뇤틲뛸탨쟳튲늻뇤,듓뛸쪹뗃뷸뿚볛룱늻뇤,믣싊뒫뗝싊캪쇣ꆣ횻폐떱뷸뿚맺믵뇒뇡횵쪹뗃뷸뿚쿞뛮컞킧쪱,믵뇒뇡횵닅떼훂뷸뿚볛룱짏짽,뷸뛸폐췪좫뗄믣싊뒫뗝ꆣ뿧맺릫쮾쓚늿붻틗뫍럇맘쮰뇚생쫇펰쿬믣싊뒫뗝뗄틲쯘,헢킩틲쯘뗄펰쿬돌뛈퇏훘틀삵폚튻룶맺볒뿧맺릫쮾뗄뛠짙틔벰뿧맺릫쮾쓚늿붻틗뗄맦쒣,춬쪱튲폫튻룶맺볒럇맘쮰쎳틗뇚생뛔튻룶맺볒뷸돶뿚뗄쿞훆돌뛈폐맘ꆣ틲듋,죧맻헢킩틲쯘퓚펰쿬튻룶맺볒뷸돶뿚볛룱랽쏦뗄ퟷ폃뷏킡,쓇쎴헢킩틲쯘뻍늻쫇펰쿬믣싊뒫뗝뗄훘튪틲쯘ꆣ(죽)뫪맛틲쯘폫믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝돽쇋듓캢맛뷇뛈뾼싇펰쿬믣싊뒫뗝뗄풭틲횮췢,튲폐퇐뺿헟횸돶뫪맛닣쏦뗄틲쯘튲뿉쓜펰쿬믣싊뒫뗝ꆣTaylor(2000)죏캪룼뗍뗄춨믵엲헍붫복킡믣싊뒫뗝싊ꆣTaylor볙짨뺭볃훐쎿룶뎧짌뚼쏦뛔쿟탔탨쟳몯쫽yt=ꛅt-ꛂ(xt-p)t,웤훐ꛅt쫇탨쟳뗄쯦믺뇤뚯,xt캪닺욷뗄볛룱,pt캪웤쯻닺욷뗄욽뻹볛룱ꆣ뎧짌짨뚨볛룱뫳캬돖쯄웚,쯄웚맽뫳훘탂짨뚨볛룱,헢쯄웚훐웤쯻늻춬뗄뎧짌럖뇰짨뚨볛룱ꆣ쯹틔pt쫇쯄샠뎧짌닺욷뗄욽뻹볛룱pt=(xt+xt-1+xt-2+xt-3)/4ꆣ쟳뷢뎧짌뗄샻죳ퟮ듳뮯컊쳢뿉틔뗃떽뎧짌뗄ퟮ폅볛룱:xt=ꇆ3(Etct+i+Etpt+i+Eꛅtt+i/ꛂ)(12)i=0ꆡꆡ웤훐ct캪뎧짌뗄돉놾ꆣ듓뎧짌뗄ퟮ폅뚨볛닟싔뿉틔뾴돶,ퟮ폅볛룱폫돉놾뇤뚯뫍웤쯻뎧짌볛룱뇤뚯뗄돖뻃탔폐맘ꆣ풽늻돖뻃뗄뇤뚯뛔볛룱뗄펰쿬풽킡ꆣ뛸뺭퇩횤뻝뇭쏷,튻룶볛룱컈뚨뗄뺭볃웤돉놾뇤뚯뗄돖뻃탔뷏죵,틲캪뎧짌죏캪퓚뗍춨믵엲헍뮷뺳쿂,쯼쏇늻쓜붫돉놾퓶볓뒫뗝룸쿻럑헟,쯹틔붫짨램ퟨ횹돉놾뗄짏헇(죧뻜뻸릤짏헇뗄튪쟳);춬퇹뗍춨믵엲헍뗄맺볒퓢쫜믵뇒뇡횵뛸떼훂볛룱짏짽뗄돖뻃탔쿠뛔뷏죵,쯹틔뗍춨믵엲헍틔벰떼훂뗍춨믵엲헍뗄믵뇒헾닟,춨맽붵뗍돉놾뫍볛룱뇤뚯뗄풤웚돖뻃탔뛸떼훂뗍뗄믣싊뒫뗝싊ꆣ쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚5웚ꆡꆤ16ꆤ
ꆡꆡ쪩붨뮴ꆡ뢵탛맣ꆡꆡ뫪맛닣쏦뗄틲쯘뿉쓜늻쫇떼훂믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝뗄훷튪풭틲,떫쫇헢킩틲쯘펰쿬믣싊뒫뗝싊뗄퇝뇤ꆣ뇈죧,쏀맺뷸뿚볛룱뗄믣싊뒫뗝싊폐쿂붵뗄쟷쫆(MarazziandSheets,2007),헢뿉쓜폫쏀맺뷼쓪살춨믵엲헍뷏뗍폐뫜듳맘쾵ꆣ쯄ꆡ믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝뗄뫪맛펰쿬퓧웚맘폚믣싊뒫뗝컊쳢뗄퇐뺿,훷튪쫇퓚믣싊췢짺룸뚨뗄쳵볾쿂뾼달믣싊뇤뚯뛔뷸돶뿚볛룱뗄펰쿬,뷸뛸뿉틔쇋뷢믣싊뛔뗷헻쎳틗쫕횧뗄ퟷ폃,샭싛퇐뺿뗄랽쿲쫇톰헒떼훂믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝뗄풭틲,샭싛쒣탍튲훷튪쫇듓캢맛뷇뛈뷨본닺튵ퟩ횯쒣탍뷸탐릹훾ꆣ뛸뷼웚뛔믣싊뒫뗝뗄퇐뺿훘뗣쫇뾼싇믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝뛔뫪맛뺭볃닣쏦뗄펰쿬,벴룸뚨믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝뗄잰쳡쿂,튻맺뗄춨믵엲헍ꆢ쿻럑ꆢ닺돶틔벰믵뇒헾닟죧뫎쫜믣싊뒫뗝뗄펰쿬ꆣ헢킩퇐뺿훷튪쫇퓚탂뾪럅뺭볃뫪맛뺭볃톧ꋙ뗄뿲볜쿂뷸탐ꆣ퓚탭뛠쿖폐뗄탂뾪럅뺭볃뫪맛뺭볃톧쒣탍훐,튻볛뚨싉춨뎣놻ퟷ캪튻룶믹놾릹볾,늢쟒쎳틗욷볛룱놻짨뚨캪내짺닺헟믵뇒뚨볛(producercurrencypricing,볲돆PCP)ꆣ퓚헢훖볙짨쿂,믣싊뛔뷸뿚짌욷뗄볛룱쫇췪좫뒫뗝뗄,헢폫뒫춳뗄뾪럅뺭볃뫪맛뺭볃톧쒣탍쏉듺뛻-뢥삳쏷쒣탍뗄볙짨튻훂,샽죧Obstfeld뫍Rogoff(1995)뗄솽맺쒣탍,Gali뫍Monacelli(2005)뗄킡맺쒣탍뚼쫇죧듋짨뚨뗄ꆣ떫쫇,퓚믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝쟩탎쿂,뾪럅뺭볃뫪맛뺭볃톧쒣탍퓚퇐뺿뺭볃늨뚯뫍ퟮ폅믵뇒헾닟쪱쯹뗃뷡싛뿉쓜폫믣싊췪좫뒫뗝볙짨쿂뗃돶뗄뷡싛폐쿔훸닮뇰ꆣ샽죧,뾪럅뺭볃훐믣싊뇤뚯펰쿬뺭볃퓋탐뗄튻룶훘튪쟾뗀쫇뗷헻맺쓚췢쿠뛔볛룱듓뛸닺짺횧돶뮻킧펦,죧맻믣싊뒫뗝늻췪좫,쓇쎴헢훖횧돶뮻킧펦믡뇈뷏킡,떱뺭볃쏦쇙돥믷쪱,믣싊뗄뛌웚뗷헻ퟷ폃뻍뫜폐쿞,뢡뚯믣싊훆뛈늻튻뚨쫇ퟮ폅뗄톡퓱,헢붫펰쿬ퟮ폅믵뇒헾닟뗄톡퓱ꆣ퓚탂뾪럅뺭볃뫪맛뺭볃톧뿲볜쿂,틑뺭랢햹쇋튻킩틽죫믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝뗄쒣탍ꆣ죧Betts뫍Devereux(1996ꆢ2000)퓚쒣탍훐틽죫쇋믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝뫍뛌웚튻볛뚨싉뗄욫샫,쯻쏇볙짨맺볊쫐뎡쫇럖룮뗄,늢쟒볙짨뷸뿚닺욷내뷸뿚맺믵뇒뚨볛(localcurrencypricing,볲돆LCP)ꆣ듋췢,뷸뿚볛룱쳡잰튻웚짨뚨,틲듋뻟폐뛌웚햳탔,뛌웚뗄뷸뿚볛룱믣싊뒫뗝싊캪쇣ꆣퟮ뷼뗄컄쿗틑뺭냑LCP뿲볜폫룼튻냣뗄뚨볛랽쪽죧Calvo(1983)뗄쯦믺볛룱뗷헻쒣탍ꆢRotemberg(1982)뗄쿟탔욽랽뗷헻돉놾쒣탍믲헟붻듭뫏풼쒣탍뷡ꋙ뛔탂뾪럅뺭볃뫪맛뺭볃톧뷏캪좫쏦뗄ퟛ쫶뿉틔닎볻Lane(2001)ꆣ쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚5웚ꆡꆤ17ꆤ
ꆡꆡ믣싊뒫뗝샭싛컄쿗ퟛ쫶뫏웰살ꆣꋙ헢킩쒣탍뗄맘볼쳘헷쫇ퟮ폅뚨볛맦퓲쫇잰쿲풤웚뗄,틲듋쒣탍풤닢믣싊뛔뷸뿚볛룱뗄뒫뗝쫇훰붥뗷헻뗄,춬쪱믣싊뛔뷸뿚볛룱뗄뒫뗝돌뛈뫍쯙뛈틀삵폚믣싊뇤뚯뗄풤웚돖탸탔ꆣ듋췢,ퟮ뷼튻킩컄쿗늻춬폚퓧웚탂뾪럅뺭볃뫪맛뺭볃톧쒣탍늻쟸뇰뷸뿚닺욷뗄쿻럑헟볛룱뫍떽낶볛룱뗄ퟶ램,틑뺭뾼싇헢솽훖볛룱뗄닮틬ꆣ샽죧,Smets뫍Wouters(2002)볙짨뷸뿚뎧짌틔룸뚨뗄볛룱,듓쫀뷧쫐뎡짏릺싲춬훊뗄짌욷늢뮻돉늻춬훊뗄짌욷퓚맺쓚쫐뎡짏쿺쫛,Monacelli(2005)퓲볙짨맺쓚쇣쫛짌뷸뿚폐닮틬뗄닺욷ꆣ헢킩쒣탍훐믣싊뛔떽낶볛룱뗄뒫뗝뚼쫇췪좫뫍톸쯙뗄ꆣ좻뛸,평폚떱뗘믵뇒볛룱햳탔,뛌웚쓚믣싊뛔뷸뿚닺욷뗄쿻럑헟볛룱뗄뒫뗝늻췪좫ꆣCorsetti뫍Deldola(2005)퓚탂뾪럅뺭볃뫪맛뺭볃톧뿲볜쿂랢햹쇋쇭튻룶틽죫믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝뗄쒣탍,볙짨쎳틗욷뮯돉ퟮ훕쿻럑욷뗄맽돌훐튪쟳떱뗘늻뿉쎳틗욷뫍럾컱뗄춶죫,헢퇹,퓚쿻럑뷗뛎뗄쎳틗욷볛룱훐냼몬쇋뫜듳돌뛈뗄늻뿉쎳틗욷돉럖ꆣ죧럖쿺돉놾쪹뗃뷸뿚욷떽낶볛룱뫍쿻럑볛룱폐튻뚨뗄닮틬,횱뷓붵뗍쇋믣싊뛔뷸뿚욷쿻럑볛룱뗄펰쿬ꆣ듋췢,닮볛뗄듦퓚퓬돉돶뿚짌쏦뛔뗄탨쟳떯탔뫍ퟮ폅돉놾볓돉쫇뷸뿚맺늻뿉쎳틗욷볛룱뗄몯쫽,떼훂퓚놾맺쫐뎡뫍췢맺쫐뎡쿺쫛뗄닺욷듦퓚볛룱웧쫓,틲듋믣싊뛔뷸뿚볛룱뗄뒫뗝쫇늻췪좫뗄ꆣ헢튻뷡싛벴쪹퓚늻듦퓚떱뗘믵뇒뚨볛햳탔뗄쟩뿶쿂튲쫇돉솢뗄ꆣ샻폃탂뾪럅뺭볃뫪맛뺭볃톧뿲볜퇐뺿믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝컊쳢뗄컄쿗뿉틔듖싔뗘럖캪솽샠:튻샠쫇퓚튻냣뻹뫢뿲볜쿂틽죫믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝살뷢쫍튻킩뫪맛뺭볃뇤솿뗄늨뚯쳘탔;쇭튻샠쫇퓚믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝뗄쳵볾쿂퇐뺿ퟮ폅믵뇒헾닟좷뚨뫍믵뇒헾닟뛔믣싊뒫뗝싊뗄펰쿬틔벰쯼쏇횮볤뗄쓚짺맘쾵ꆣꋚ(튻)믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝폫뫪맛뺭볃늨뚯믣싊퓚뾪럅뺭볃훐뗄ퟷ폃훷튪퓚폚횧돶뮻킧펦ꋛ,떫쫇죧맻믣싊뛔뷸돶뿚볛룱쫇늻췪좫뒫뗝뗄,쓇쎴헢훖킧펦뻍믡쿠펦뗘복죵,뷸뛸쏦뛔춬퇹뗄췢짺돥믷떼훂뗄뛔뻹뫢뗄욫샫,믣싊탨튪룼듳럹뛈뗄뗷헻닅쓜쪹뺭볃훘탂믘떽뻹뫢ힴ첬ꆣ쯹틔퓚믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝쿂믣싊늨뚯믡룼듳,춬쪱돥믷뛔닺돶뫍쿻럑뗄펰쿬튲뿉쓜폫믣싊췪좫뒫뗝쿂뗄ꋙ닎볻Smets뫍Wouters(2002)ꆢMonacelli(2005)ꆢAdolfson(2001)ꆢLaxton뫍Pesenti(2003)ꆢBergin(2006)ꆢBergin뫍Feenstra(2001)ꆢChari뗈(2002)ꆣꋚ퓚솽맺쒣탍뿲볜쿂퇐뺿ퟮ폅믵뇒헾닟뗄컄쿗폐Devereux뫍Engel(2007)ꆢSmets뫍Wouters(2002)ꆢSuther2land(2005)뗈,퓚킡맺쒣탍뿲볜쿂퇐뺿ퟮ폅믵뇒헾닟뗄컄쿗퓲폐Adolfson(2001)ꆢDevereux(2001)ꆢMonacelli(2005)뫍Adolfson(2007)뗈ꆣꋛ믣싊뇤뚯뮹듦퓚횧돶뇤룼킧펦,맘폚헢랽쏦뗄쳖싛뿉닎볻Shi(2006)ꆣ쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚5웚ꆡꆤ18ꆤ
ꆡꆡ쪩붨뮴ꆡ뢵탛맣ꆡꆡ뷡싛늻춬ꆣ캪퇐뺿내쫐뎡뚨볛쫇럱펰쿬믣싊뫍맺볊뫪맛뺭볃늨뚯,Betts뫍Devereux(1996ꆢ2000)랢햹쇋튻룶튻냣뻹뫢쒣탍,쒣탍뗄볜릹샠쯆Obstfeld뫍Rogoff(1995)뗄솽맺쒣탍,늻춬뗄쫇틽죫쇋PTM탐캪,퓬돉PTM뗄풭틲쫇쎳틗욷듦퓚쫐뎡럖룮틔벰뎧짌짨뚨볛룱뛌웚듦퓚햳탔ꆣ볙짨놾맺뎧짌짺닺n뇈샽뗄닺욷,뛸1-n뇈샽뗄닺욷평췢맺뎧짌짺닺,쎿룶맺볒뚼폐s뇈샽뗄뎧짌뻟폐쫐뎡럖룮쓜솦,뿉틔내쫐뎡뚨볛,벴퓚놾맺뫍췢맺쫐뎡짨뚨늻춬뗄볛룱,헢늿럖닺욷내쿖뗘믵뇒뚨볛;뛸1-s뇈샽뗄닺욷뿉틔퓚맺볊볤ퟔ평쎳틗,헢늿럖닺욷내짺닺헟믵뇒뚨볛ꆣ쒣탍뗄튻냣뻹뫢쳵볾틔벰뗃돶뗄ퟮ폅탐캪랽돌뇭쏷,쫇럱듦퓚PTM뛔믣싊뫍맺볊뫪맛뺭볃늨뚯폐훘튪펰쿬ꆣ떱듦퓚PTM쪱(s>0),믣싊뛔믵뇒헾닟뫍닆헾헾닟뗄랴펦놻럅듳,튲뻍쫇쮵PTM뗄듦퓚쪹뗃믣싊뗄늨뚯럹뛈퓶볓ꆣ맘폚믵뇒돥믷뛔쿻럑뫍닺돶뗄펰쿬,죧맻늻듦퓚PTM(s=0),죎뫎튻룶맺볒뗄믵뇒릩룸퓶볓뚼붫춬쪱퓶볓솽룶맺볒뗄쿻럑,뛔폚닺돶뗄펰쿬퓲쫇퓶볓놾맺닺돶뛸복짙췢맺닺돶ꆣ웤뺭볃싟벭쫇:떱늻듦퓚PTM쪱놾뇒뇡횵췪좫뒫뗝떽볛룱짏,췢맺볛룱쮮욽붫쿂붵,쪹뗃췢맺쿻럑춨맽믵뇒쫐뎡뻹뫢믺훆튲뗃떽퓶볓,솽맺쿻럑폐헽쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦놾뇒뇡횵닺짺뗄횧돶뮻킧펦쪹뗃쫀뷧탨쟳듓췢맺닺욷쿲놾맺닺욷,떼훂놾맺닺돶퓶볓뛸췢맺닺돶복짙,튲뻍쫇쮵솽맺뗄닺돶폐뢺쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ떫쫇죧맻듦퓚PTM(s>0),뷡싛퓲랴맽살쇋ꆣ평폚믣싊뒫뗝싊쿂붵,믵뇒돥믷뛔췢맺쿻럑뗄펰쿬복죵뛸뛔놾맺쿻럑뗄펰쿬볓뻧,퓚벫쿞뗄쟩탎쿂(s=1)놾맺쿻럑뇤뚯싊췪좫뗈폚놾맺믵뇒뇤뚯싊,쯹틔PTM붵뗍쇋믵뇒돥믷뛔쿻럑뗄맺볊뒫떼ꆣ듋췢,놾맺믵뇒릩룸퓶볓붫춬쪱퓶볓솽룶맺볒뗄닺돶,틲캪PTM뗄듦퓚(쳘뇰쫇PTM돌뛈룟뗄쟩뿶쿂)쪹뗃믣싊뛔솽룶맺볒쿻럑헟쯹쏦뛔뗄쿠뛔볛룱뗄뒫뗝싊붵뗍,횧돶뮻킧펦뇤킡,쯹틔놾맺믵뇒삩헅튲퓶볓쇋췢맺뗄닺돶,벴PTM뗄듦퓚퓶볓쇋맺볒볤닺돶뗄헽쿠맘탔ꆣ뛔믵뇒돥믷뗄뢣샻럖컶뷡맻뇭쏷,평폚PTM뗄듦퓚,튻룶맺볒뿉틔춨맽캴놻풤웚떽뗄믵뇒삩헅살룄짆쎳틗쳵볾,헢퓶볓쇋놾맺뗄쿻럑뫍뢣샻ꆣ뛸췢맺뗄쿻럑퓶볓뷏짙,닺돶퓶볓뷏뛠,쯹틔췢맺뗄뢣샻뛱뮯ꆣ틲듋캴놻풤웚떽뗄믵뇒삩헅쫇ꆰ틔쇚캪?ꆱ뗄믵뇒헾닟ꆣCorsetti뫍Dedola(2005)죏캪PTM뗄듦퓚늢럇쫇평폚햳탔볛룱뛸쫇틲캪럖쿺늿쏅뗄듦퓚ꆣ퓚볛룱돤럖떯탔뗄쟩뿶쿂,뺡맜솽맺폐쿠춬뗄쳦듺떯탔욫뫃,떫평폚럖쿺늿쏅뗄듦퓚(벴냑쎳틗욷뇤돉쿻럑욷탨튪튻뚨뗄럇쎳틗욷),퓚늻춬쫐뎡짏붫폐늻춬뗄탨쟳떯탔,쯹틔퓚쫐뎡럖룮뗄잰쳡쿂,뎧짌붫퓚늻춬쫐뎡짨뚨늻춬뗄볛룱,튲뻍쫇쮵듦퓚쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚5웚ꆡꆤ19ꆤ
ꆡꆡ믣싊뒫뗝샭싛컄쿗ퟛ쫶PTMꆣ춬퇹,퓚솽맺뿲볜쿂뗄튻냣뻹뫢럖컶뷡맻뇭쏷:믣싊뫍쎳틗쳵볾늨뚯뇈믹놾쏦뗄늨뚯튪듳,쏻틥믣싊뫍쪵훊믣싊헽쿠맘,춬쪱쏻틥뇡횵틢캶ퟅ쎳틗쳵볾뛱뮯ꆣ(뛾)믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝폫믵뇒헾닟퓚맺볊뷰죚쇬폲,뛔늻춬뗄믣싊훆뛈뗄톡퓱쫇튻룶훘튪컊쳢ꆣ쿖쪵훐닉좡만뚨믣싊훆뛈틔벰뢡뚯믣싊훆뗄맺볒뚼뫜뛠,튲폐튻킩맺볒닉좡훐볤믣싊훆뛈ꆣ샭싛짏,떱튻룶맺볒쫜떽헦쪵돥믷뛸튪쟳쿠뛔볛룱뗷헻쪱,믣싊뇤뚯뿉틔톸쯙펰쿬쿠뛔볛룱,쯹틔뢡뚯믣싊훆뛈쫇룼폅뗄톡퓱,뛸만뚨믣싊훆뛈퓲룸믵뇒떱뻖쪩볓쇋뫜잿뗄믵뇒볍싉,퓶볓쇋튻룶맺볒뗄믵뇒컈뚨탔,쯹틔솽훖믣싊훆뛈룷폐ퟔ벺뗄폅뗣뫍좱뗣ꆣFriedman(1953)횸돶,죧맻볛룱쫇췪좫떯탔뗄,쓇쎴만뚨믣싊훆뛈뫍뢡뚯믣싊훆뛈쫇뗈볛뗄ꆣ떫쫇퓚볛룱뗷헻뮺싽뗄쟩뿶쿂,뢡뚯믣싊쪹뗃쏻틥믣싊뿉틔솢벴뗷헻듓뛸쿠뛔볛룱뿉틔톸쯙뗷헻,뢡뚯믣싊훆뛈뢴훆쇋떯탔볛룱쾵춳ꆣ헢틢캶ퟅ뾪럅뺭볃뗄ퟮ폅믵뇒헾닟튪쟳믣싊뢡뚯ꆣ좻뛸,퓚믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝뗄쳵볾쿂,믣싊뇤뚯뛔쿠뛔볛룱뗄펰쿬뿉쓜폐쿞,떯탔믣싊훆뛈늻퓙쫇ퟮ폅뗄톡퓱ꆣ쯹틔퓚믣싊췪좫뒫뗝뫍늻췪좫뒫뗝뗄쟩뿶쿂,훐퇫틸탐뾼싇쯰쪧몯쫽뿉쓜뗃돶늻춬뗄ퟮ폅믵뇒헾닟톡퓱ꆣퟮ폅믵뇒헾닟좡뻶폚뢣샻몯쫽,떱믣싊뒫뗝늻췪좫쪱뢣샻몯쫽횱뷓쫜떽믣싊뇤뚯뗄펰쿬,헢퇹ퟮ폅믵뇒헾닟뻍쫜떽믣싊뒫뗝싊뗄펰쿬,믣싊뒫뗝싊뗄늻춬뻶뚨ퟅퟮ폅믵뇒헾닟쫇럱튪뾼싇믣싊뇤뚯틲쯘ꆣ퓚솽맺쒣탍뗄뿲볜쿂,Sutherland(2005)퇐뺿쇋믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝뛔ퟮ폅믵뇒헾닟뫍믣싊헾닟뗄펰쿬,쒣탍뗄죽룶훘튪볙짨쫇닺욷볛룱쫇폐튻뚨떯탔뗄ꆢ킧폃몯쫽뫍샍뚯솦릩룸뗄맘쾵닉폃룼튻냣뗄탎쪽틔벰쿻럑헟폐놾맺닺욷욫뫃ꆣ뢣샻뚨틥돉맺쓚맺췢짺닺헟볛룱뫍쏻틥믣싊뗄뛾뷗뻘뗄몯쫽,믣싊뗄뛾뷗뻘틀삵폚믣싊뒫뗝싊ꆢ뺭볃뗄듳킡뫍뾪럅뛈틔벰샍뚯릩룸떯탔ꆣ떱믣싊뒫뗝쫇췪좫뗄,뢣샻폫믣싊뛾뷗뻘컞맘,놾맺ퟮ폅뗄헾닟쫇컈뚨맺쓚짺닺헟볛룱ꆣ떫쫇떱믣싊뒫뗝쫇늻췪좫쪱,뢣샻틀삵폚믣싊뗄랽닮ꆣ떱샍뚯솦릩룸폐떯탔늢쟒췢맺볛룱컈뚨쪱,퓲믣싊늨뚯뗄퓶볓붫떼훂놾맺뗄뢣샻쮮욽쿂붵ꆣ죧맻샍뚯솦릩룸쫇컞떯탔뗄늢쟒췢맺볛룱늻컈뚨,쓇쎴믣싊늨뚯뗄퓶볓뿉쓜떼훂놾맺뢣샻뗄쳡룟ꆣ믣싊늨뚯뛔뢣샻뗄펰쿬돌뛈틀삵폚믣싊뒫뗝돌뛈뫍놾맺뗄듳킡폫뾪럅뛈ꆣDevereux(2001)퓲퓚킡맺뾪럅뺭볃뿲볜쿂,폃뚯첬튻냣뻹뫢쒣탍퇐뺿믵뇒헾닟맦퓲,쒣탍볙짨뾪럅뺭볃킡맺듦퓚솽룶늿쏅,쎳틗욷늿쏅뫍럇쎳틗욷늿쏅,럇쎳틗욷평럇쎳틗욷늿쏅뗄놾뫍샍뚯솦짺닺,뛸쎳틗욷평쎳틗욷늿쏅뗄놾뫍샍뚯솦틔벰뷸뿚욷릲춬짺닺ꆣ쎳틗욷볛룱싺ퟣ튻볛뚨싉,뛸럇쎳틗욷볛룱듦퓚햳탔ꆣ볙짨놾ퟔ평쇷뚯,쫀뷧샻싊룸뚨ꆣ쒣탍뗃돶,늻춬믣싊뒫뗝뗄맺볒퓚만뚨믣싊훆뛈뫍뢡뚯믣싊훆뛈횮볤쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚5웚ꆡꆤ20ꆤ
ꆡꆡ쪩붨뮴ꆡ뢵탛맣ꆡꆡ뗄좡짡췪좫늻춬ꆣ퓚믣싊췪좫뒫뗝뫍믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝쿂,Devereux(2001)뇈뷏쇋튻쾵쇐폫만뚨믣싊쿠죝뗄믵뇒헾닟(쏻틥믣싊뚤힡뫍탞룄뗄첩샕맦퓲)틔벰폫뢡뚯믣싊쿠죝뗄믵뇒헾닟(첩샕맦퓲ꆢ춨믵엲헍뚤힡뫍럇쎳틗욷춨믵엲헍뚤힡)ꆣ퇐뺿뷡맻뇭쏷,죧맻믣싊뒫뗝싊룟,떱쏦쇙췢늿돥믷쪱,믵뇒헾닟붫쏦뛔닺돶늨뚯뫍볛룱늨뚯횮볤뷸탐좡짡ꆣ틲캪컈뚨닺돶뗄헾닟튪쟳듳뗄믣싊늨뚯,뛸듳뗄믣싊늨뚯떼훂볛룱늨뚯튲뫜듳ꆣ떫쫇죧맻믣싊뒫뗝싊뗍,쓇쎴뻍늻듦퓚헢훖좡짡ꆣ틲캪떯탔믣싊헾닟뿉틔춨맽컞뗖늹뗄샻싊욽볛쳵볾살컈뚨놾맺뗄샻싊,뷸뛸뿉틔컈뚨놾맺뺭볃,평폚믣싊뒫뗝싊뗍,믣싊뗄늨뚯늻믡틽웰룟뗄춨믵엲헍늨뚯,쯹틔퓚믣싊뒫뗝싊뗍뗄쟩뿶쿂,퇏룱뗄춨믵엲헍뚤힡쫇룼폅뗄헾닟ꆣ평폚컈뚨늻뿉쎳틗욷뗄춨믵엲헍뿉틔췪좫룴샫놾맺쓚늿뗄믵뇒헾닟돥믷,늢쟒튲뿉틔춬쪱룴샫췢늿돥믷,쯹틔컈뚨늻뿉쎳틗욷뗄춨믵엲헍쫇믵뇒떱뻖뗄ퟮ폅믵뇒헾닟ꆣ춬퇹,퓚킡맺쒣탍뗄뿲볜쿂,Smets뫍Wouters(2002)퇐뺿쇋믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝뫍ퟮ폅믵뇒헾닟,늻춬폚웤쯻컄쿗쪹폃컞쿞짺쏼웚쒣탍,ퟷ헟볙짨쿻럑헟쎿웚뚼폐튻뚨뗄쯀췶룅싊,틲듋틽죫쇋쫀듺붻뗾쒣탍ꆣ쒣탍볙짨ퟮ훕쿻럑욷쫇놾맺닺욷뫍췢맺닺욷뗄ퟩ뫏,닺욷볤폐뎣쫽쳦듺떯탔ꆣ놾맺닺욷뗄짺닺탨튪놾맺샍뚯솦뫍튻뚨뇈샽뗄췢맺뷸뿚욷춶죫,놾맺닺욷뿉폃폚쿻럑뫍돶뿚ꆣ뷸뿚늿쏅뷸뿚춬훊뗄닺욷늢냑쯼뮻돉폐튻뚨닮틬뗄닺욷,볙짨놾맺짺닺늿쏅뫍뷸뿚늿쏅쎿웚횻폐튻뚨뇈샽뗄뎧짌뿉틔룄뇤볛룱,볛룱햳탔떼훂믣싊뛔뷸뿚욷쿻럑볛룱뗄뒫뗝쫇늻췪좫뗄ꆣ평폚뷸뿚볛룱뫍맺쓚볛룱춬쪱햳탔,쯹틔늻뿉쓜뢴훆떯탔볛룱ꆣ퓚뾼싇ퟮ폅믵뇒헾닟쪱,늻춬폚웤쯻컄쿗쪶뇰훐퇫틸탐뗄쯰쪧몯쫽쫇닺돶좱뿚뫍춨믵엲헍뗄뛾듎탍몯쫽,Smets뫍Wouters(2002)볙짨훐퇫틸탐ퟮ킡뮯붻듭볛룱뗷헻뗄뢣샻돉놾,틲듋ퟮ훕훐퇫틸탐뗄쒿뇪몯쫽쫇맺쓚볛룱뫍뷸뿚볛룱춨믵엲헍랽닮뗄볓좨욽뻹ꆣ뷡맻,ퟮ폅믵뇒헾닟늻퓙쫇컈뚨맺쓚볛룱,뛸쫇쏦쇙맺쓚춨믵엲헍뫍뷸뿚볛룱춨믵엲헍횮볤뗄좡짡ꆣꋙ횵뗃힢틢뗄쫇,뷸뿚닺욷늻뷶뷶쫇ퟮ훕쿻럑욷,믣싊펰쿬훐볤뷸뿚욷볛룱쫇믣싊펰쿬맺쓚뎧짌볛룱뗄횱뷓춨뗀ꆣ떱뷸뿚짌욷뷸죫맺쓚뎧짌뗄짺닺몯쫽쪱,뇟볊돉놾틀삵폚훐볤뷸뿚욷뗄볛룱ꆣ헢쫇믣싊펰쿬킡맺뾪럅뺭볃뗄튻룶훘튪춨뗀ꆣMcCallum뫍Nelson(2000)벰Devereux(2001)뾼싇쇋헢튻춨뗀죧뫎펰쿬ퟮ폅믵뇒헾닟ꆣ뛸뷸뿚볛룱뛔ퟜ쿻럑횸쫽뗄펰쿬틀삵폚뺭볃뗄뾪럅뛈뫍쿻럑욷뗄놾맺욫뫃돌뛈ꆣ쿔좻,퓚튻냣뻹ꋙ듋췢,Adolfson뗈(2007)ꆢCorsetti뗈(2007)ꆢGagnon뫍Ihrig(2004)ꆢMonacelli(2005)ꆢObstfeld(2002)ꆢSmets뫍Wouters(2003)뗈튻킩컄쿗뚼쫇퓚뾼싇믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝쿂뗄믵뇒헾닟헢튻랽쿲짏뗄췘햹퇐뺿ꆣ쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚5웚ꆡꆤ21ꆤ
ꆡꆡ믣싊뒫뗝샭싛컄쿗ퟛ쫶뫢뿲볜쿂,믣싊폫볛룱횮볤뗄맘쾵늻뷶틀삵폚볛룱짨뚨헟뛔믣싊뇤뚯뗄ퟮ폅랴펦,뛸쟒튲틀삵폚쒣탍뗄뷡릹뫍돥믷살풴(Amberetal.,2003)ꆣ뛔ퟮ폅믵뇒헾닟뗄퇐뺿,춨뎣뚼볙짨믣싊뒫뗝쫇췢짺뗄,뛸쎻폐뾼싇믵뇒헾닟뛔믣싊뒫뗝뗄펰쿬,뛸믣싊뒫뗝돌뛈뿉틔쓚짺폚믵뇒헾닟훆뛈(Taylor,2000;GagnonandIh2rig,2004)ꆣDevereux뫍Yetman(2002)랢햹쇋튻룶쒣탍뷢쫍춨믵엲헍뮷뺳뫍믣싊뒫뗝횮볤뗄솪쾵,뗃돶퓚뷏뗍벰컈뚨뗄춨믵엲헍뮷뺳쿂,뎧짌늻믡욵랱뗷헻볛룱뗄뷡싛ꆣ헢틢캶ퟅ죧맻폐튻뚨뇈샽뗄뎧짌닉좡LCP,쓇쎴뛌웚폐뷏뗍뗄믣싊뒫뗝싊ꆣퟮ뷼뗄튻킩컄쿗뻍쫇퓚탂뾪럅뺭볃뫪맛뺭볃톧뗄뿲볜쿂퇐뺿볛룱짨뚨뗄믵뇒톡퓱(벴LCP뮹쫇PCP),헢퇹,믣싊뒫뗝돌뛈쓚짺폚뫪맛뺭볃헾닟ꆣퟮ폅볛룱짨뚨뗄믵뇒톡퓱틀삵폚틔쿂튻킩틲쯘:돶뿚뎧짌퓚맺췢쫐뎡짏뗄럝뛮(BacchettaandvanWincoop,2005),췢맺짌욷뫍놾맺짌욷뗄쳦듺돌뛈(GoldbergandTile,2005)뗈ꆣBergin뫍Feenstra(2001)벰Gust뫍Sheets(2006)볙짨쿻럑헟폐CES킧폃몯쫽,틲듋뎧짌쏦뛔뗄탨쟳떯탔틀삵폚뺺헹닺욷뗄쿠뛔볛룱ꆣ퓚헢튻쒣탍훐,떱뺺헹욷볛룱캪뎣쫽쪱,돶뿚뎧짌쳡룟볛룱붫떼훂탨쟳룼뻟떯탔,헢틽웰돉놾볓돉뗄붵뗍ꆣ틲듋돶뿚뎧짌ퟮ폅뗄탐캪쫇춨맽뗷헻돉놾볓돉컼쫕늿럖믣싊뇤뚯,듓뛸믣싊뛔뷸뿚볛룱뗄뒫뗝쫇늻췪좫뗄ꆣDevereux뗈(2004)뾼싇쇋믣싊뒫뗝뛔믵뇒헾닟뗄펰쿬뫍믵뇒헾닟뛔믣싊뒫뗝뗄펰쿬,붫믣싊뒫뗝쓚짺뮯ꆣDevereux뗈(2004)뗃돶뗄뷡맻뇭쏷튻룶맺볒죧맻닉좡춨믵엲헍뚤힡뗄믵뇒헾닟,쓇쎴췢맺돶뿚뎧짌붫룼폐뚯솦내뷸뿚맺믵뇒뚨볛(LCP),헢퇹뻍컈뚨쇋뷸뿚볛룱,튲뻍뷸튻늽컈뚨쇋맺쓚볛룱,듓뛸쪹뗃맺쓚돶뿚뎧짌룼뛠톡퓱놾맺믵뇒뚨볛,뷡맻췢맺볛룱쮮욽룼볓늻컈뚨ꆣ쯹틔,믵뇒헾닟뛔믣싊뒫뗝폐뫜잿뗄펰쿬,뛸뫜뛠컄쿗쎻폐뾼싇믣싊뒫뗝돌뛈뫍믵뇒헾닟횮볤뗄쿠뮥펰쿬,틲듋뿉쓜떼훂뷡맻돶쿖욫닮ꆣ컥ꆡퟜ뷡믣싊뒫뗝쫇맺볊뺭볃톧훐뗄튻룶훘튪퇐뺿쇬폲ꆣ퓧웚뗄퇐뺿닉폃뻖늿뻹뫢쒣탍,퓚믣싊췢짺뗄쳵볾쿂퇐뺿믣싊죧뫎펰쿬쎳틗욷볛룱ꆣ컄쿗훷튪듓캢맛탨쟳쏦믲릩룸쏦럖컶퓬돉믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝뗄풭틲ꆣ듋췢,닺욷뗄쫐뎡뷡릹ꆢ늻췪좫쳦듺탔ꆢ뿧맺릫쮾쓚늿붻틗뫍럇맘쮰뇚생벰뫪맛닣쏦뗄틲쯘튲놻죏캪쫇떼훂믣싊늻췪좫뒫뗝뗄뿉쓜풭틲ꆣ듓헢킩퇐뺿뿉틔뾴돶,믣싊뒫뗝틀삵폚쫐뎡뷡릹틔벰웤쯻뫜뛠틲쯘,뛸늻춬뗄맺볒헢킩틲쯘뚼폐쯹늻춬,춬쪱,쯹폐틲쯘뗄훘튪돌뛈튲폐쯹늻춬ꆣ쯹틔,뛔늻춬뗄맺볒펦룃붨쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2010쓪뗚5웚ꆡꆤ22ꆤ
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