싛컄럖샠뫅 떥캻듺싫 10183 쏜 벶 릫 뾪 퇐뺿짺톧뫅2006212036 벪 쇖 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 뛔펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄럖컶 ꆪꆪ틔펢맺BP쪯폍릫쮾캪샽 Analysis of British Outward Foreign Direct Investment ——BP Plc Case Study ퟷ헟탕쏻ꎺ돵 몽 튵ꎺ맺볊쎳틗톧 떼쪦탕쏻 벰 횰 돆ꎺ 톧캻샠뇰ꎺ뺭볃톧쮶쪿 싛컄웰횹쓪퓂ꎺ2007쓪4퓂훁2008쓪4퓂
벪쇖듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄풭뒴탔짹쏷 놾죋횣훘짹쏷ꎺ쯹돊붻뗄쮶쪿톧캻싛컄ꎬ쫇놾죋퓚횸떼뷌쪦뗄횸떼쿂ꎬ뛀솢뷸탐퇐뺿릤ퟷ쯹좡뗃뗄돉맻ꆣ돽컄훐틑뺭힢쏷틽폃뗄쓚죝췢ꎬ놾싛컄늻냼몬죎뫎웤쯻룶죋믲벯쳥틑뺭랢뇭믲킴맽뗄ퟷ욷돉맻ꆣ뛔놾컄뗄퇐뺿ퟶ돶훘튪릱쿗뗄룶죋뫍벯쳥ꎬ뻹틑퓚컄훐틔쏷좷랽쪽뇪쏷ꆣ놾죋췪좫틢쪶떽놾짹쏷뗄램싉뷡맻평놾죋돐떣ꆣ 톧캻싛컄ퟷ헟잩쏻ꎺ 죕웚ꎺ 쓪 퓂 죕 2
ꆶ훐맺폅탣늩쮶쪿톧캻싛컄좫컄쫽뻝뿢ꆷ춶룥짹쏷 퇐뺿짺풺ꎺ 놾죋춬틢ꆶ훐맺폅탣늩쮶쪿톧캻싛컄좫컄쫽뻝뿢ꆷ돶냦헂돌뗄쓚죝ꎬ풸틢붫놾죋뗄톧캻싛컄캯췐퇐뺿짺풺쿲훐맺톧쫵웚뾯ꎨ맢엌냦ꎩ뗧ퟓ퓓횾짧뗄ꆶ훐맺폅탣늩쮶쪿톧캻싛컄좫컄쫽뻝뿢ꆷ춶룥ꎬ쾣췻ꆶ훐맺폅탣늩쮶쪿톧캻싛컄좫컄쫽뻝뿢ꆷ룸폨돶냦ꎬ늢춬틢퓚ꆶ훐맺늩쮶쪿톧캻싛컄움볛쫽뻝뿢ꆷ뫍CNKI쾵쇐쫽뻝뿢훐쪹폃ꎬ춬틢내헂돌맦뚨쿭쫜쿠맘좨틦ꆣ ꇌ 싛컄벶뇰ꎺꇵ쮶쪿 ꇵ늩쪿 톧뿆튵ꎺ뷰죚톧 싛컄쳢쒿ꎺ ퟷ헟잩쏻ꎺ 횸떼뷌쪦잩쏻ꎺ 쓪 퓂 죕 ퟷ헟솪쾵뗘횷ꎨ폊뇠ꎩꎺ벪쇖듳톧뺭탅A릫풢348쫒ꎨ130012ꎩ ퟷ헟솪쾵뗧뮰ꎺ13604434782
ퟷ헟탕쏻 돵 몽 싛컄럖샠뫅 놣쏜벶뇰 릫 뾪 퇐뺿짺톧뫅 2006212036 톧캻샠뇰 뺭볃톧쮶쪿 쫚폨톧캻떥캻벪 쇖 듳 톧 튵쏻돆 맺볊쎳틗톧엠퇸떥캻 뺭볃톧풺 맺볊쎳틗 2006쓪9퓂훁퇐뺿랽쿲 톧쾰쪱볤 쪵컱 2008쓪6퓂 뛔펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄럖컶 싛컄훐컄쳢쒿 ꆪꆪ틔펢맺BP쪯폍릫쮾캪샽 Analysis of British Outward Foreign Direct 싛컄펢컄쳢쒿 InvestmentꆪꆪBP Plc Case Study 맘볼듊(3-8룶)뛔췢횱뷓춶 펢맺 돶뿚 BP쪯폍릫쮾 탕 쏻 헔 럅 횰 돆 뷌 쫚 떼쪦 벪쇖듳톧 쟩뿶 톧샺톧캻 늩 쪿 릤ퟷ떥캻 뺭볃톧풺 싛컄쳡붻죕웚 20 쓪 퓂 죕듰뇧죕웚 20 쓪 퓂 죕 쫇럱믹뷰훺럱 믹뷰샠뇰벰뇠뫅 쿮쒿 죧틑뺭돶냦ꎬ쟫쳮킴틔쿂쓚죝 돶냦뗘ꎨ돇쫐돶냦헟ꎨ믺릹ꎩ 쏻ꆢ쪡쏻ꎩ 쏻돆 돶냦헟뗘횷 돶냦죕웚 ꎨ냼삨폊뇠ꎩ
쓚 죝 쳡 튪 20쫀볍80쓪듺틔살ꎬ뛔췢횱뷓춶틑뎬맽맺볊쎳틗ꎬ퓚쫀뷧뺭볃훐햼뻝훷떼뗘캻ꎬ뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄맦쒣틑뺭돉캪뫢솿튻맺짺닺솦랢햹쮮욽뫍맺볊뺺헹솦잿죵뗄훷튪뇪횾ꆣ 쒿잰맺쓚톧헟쏇퇐뺿늢뷨본뗄뛔췢춶듳맺훷튪캪쏀맺뫍죕놾ꎬ뛸뛔펢맺뗄퇐뺿퓲쿠뛔뿕냗ꆣퟷ캪샏없뗄놾훷틥잿맺ꎬ펢맺뗄뛔췢횱뷓춶폐ퟅ믔믍뗄샺쪷ꆣ듓뛾햽뫳횱떽뷱쳬ꎬ펢맺뗄뛔췢횱뷓춶솿업쏻쫀뷧잰쇐ꎬ탭뛠펢맺뗄뿧맺릫쮾뚼폐ퟅ좫쟲뮯뺭펪뗄럡뢻뺭퇩뫍돉쫬쒣쪽ꆣ컞싛쫇뫪맛짏뗄맺볒헾닟횧돖ꎬ뮹쫇캢맛짏뗄릫쮾뺭펪햽싔ꎬ펢맺뚼폐ퟅ횵뗃컒맺뷨본뗄뗘랽ꎬ헢튲헽쫇ퟷ헟킴놾컄뗄돵훔ꆣ 놾컄룅쫶쇋떱듺좫쟲뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄랢햹쟷쫆뫍펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄룅뿶ꎬ닻쫶쇋펢맺맄샸몣췢춶뗄헾닟벰훆뛈럶돖ꎬ럖컶쇋뛔췢횱뷓춶뛔펢맺닺튵뷡릹폈웤쫇뛔돶뿚뗄믽벫펰쿬ꎬퟮ뫳틔BP쪯폍릫쮾캪샽뷸탐믘맩럖컶ꎬ뛔뿧맺릫쮾뗄뿧맺뺭펪맽돌ퟶ쇋잳쿔뗄퇐뺿ꆣ 맘볼듊ꎺ뛔췢횱뷓춶 펢맺 돶뿚 BP쪯폍릫쮾
쒿 슼 탷 싛...............................................................................................................1 뗚튻헂 떱뷱좫쟲뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄ퟜ쳥ힴ뿶...............................................5 뗚뛾헂 펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶랢햹ힴ뿶벰풭틲럖컶.....................................10 뗚튻뷚 펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄랢햹ힴ뿶..............................................10 뗚뛾뷚 펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄뫪맛뚯틲..............................................15 뗚죽뷚 펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄캢맛뚯틲..............................................17 뗚쯄뷚 펢맺몣췢춶듙뷸쳥쾵..........................................................19 뗚죽헂 펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶뛔놾맺돶뿚뗄펰쿬럖컶.................................23 뗚쯄헂 펢맺뿧맺릫쮾뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄낸샽럖컶——BP쪯폍릫쮾뗄좫쟲뺭펪햽싔.........................................................................................26 뗚튻뷚 쒿뇪쫐뎡뗄톡좡......................................................................26 뗚뛾뷚 뺺헹폅쫆폫쇓쫆뗄SWOT럖컶.............................................27 뗚죽뷚 죚돉놾뫋쯣..........................................................................32 뗚쯄뷚 듓춶뺻쿖횵폫쓚늿놨돪싊살풤닢춶뗄캴살쫕틦..........37 뗚컥뷚 춶샻죳뛔릫쮾볛횵뗄믽벫펰쿬..........................................39 뗚쇹뷚 몣췢쫕틦뗄믣싊럧쿕맜샭......................................................45 뷡 쫸 폯.........................................................................................................49 힢 쫍.........................................................................................................50 닎뾼컄쿗.........................................................................................................54 훐컄햪튪...........................................................................................................1 Abstract..............................................................................................................1
탷 싛 튻ꆢ퇐뺿뗄쒿뗄벰틢틥ꎺ 20쫀볍80쓪듺틔살ꎬ뺭볃좫쟲뮯믱뗃쇋뿕잰랢햹ꎬ뛔췢횱뷓춶ꎨForeign Direct Investment, FDIꎩ틔잰쯹캴폐뗄쯙뛈뫍맦쒣톸쯙랢햹ꎬ뛔춶맺뫍뚫뗀맺뗄뺭볃랢햹닺짺쇋짮뿌뗄펰쿬ꎬ돉캪떱뷱쫀뷧뺭볃랢햹훐ퟮ믮풾ꆢퟮ훘튪뗄틲쯘ꆣ 랢듯맺볒욾뷨웤잿듳뗄뺭볃쪵솦ꆢ탛뫱뗄벼쫵솦솿뫍럡뢻뗄뺭펪맜샭뺭퇩뗈폅쫆ꎬ뎤웚틔살튻횱쫇좫쟲뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄훷솦뻼ꎬ퓚춶ퟜ뛮훐튻횱햼폐뫜듳뗄뇈훘ꆣ듓쒸맺살뾴ꎬ2006쓪좫쟲췢쇷돶솿뗄84%쫇춨맽랢듯맺볒뗄뿧맺릫쮾쪵쿖뗄ꎬ웤훐쫀뷧췢쇷돶솿뗄벸뫵튻냫살풴폚얷쏋맺볒ꎬ쳘뇰쫇램맺ꆢ컷냠퇀뫍펢맺ꎨ내쇷돶솿듳킡틀듎업쇐ꎩꆣ듓뚫뗀맺살뾴ꎬ2006쓪랢듯맺볒뗄췢맺횱뷓춶쇷죫솿퓶뎤45%ꎬ듯떽8570틚쏀[1]풪ꎬ쏀맺쫇ퟮ듳뗄뚫뗀맺ꎬ펢맺뫍램맺뷴쯦웤뫳ꆣ 평틔짏쫽뻝뿉볻ꎬ펢맺뗄뛔췢횱뷓춶믮뚯튻횱뚼뫜믮풾ꆣ쯼볈퓚컼틽췢맺횱뷓춶짏뇭쿖돶잿뺢쫆춷ꎬ춬쪱튲쫇튻룶믽벫뗄몣췢춶맺볒ꆣ틔펢맺캪퇐뺿뛔쿳ꎬ살럖컶떱뷱쫀뷧쳘뇰쫇랢듯맺볒뗄뛔췢횱뷓춶ퟟ쫆틔벰웤뛔좫쟲뺭볃뗄펰쿬ꎬ쫇럇뎣뻟폐듺뇭탔뗄ꆣ뛸퓚훚뛠뗄퇐뺿돉맻훐ꎬ뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄훷쇷퇐뺿훷튪틔뿧맺릫쮾뗄탐캪틔벰뿧맺춶뛔뚫뗀맺뺭볃펰쿬캪퇐뺿뛔쿳ꎬ뛸뛔뛔췢횱뷓춶뛔쒸맺뗄뺭볃킧펦뗄퇐뺿쿊짙짦벰ꆣ헽쫇믹폚풭틲ꎬ놾컄쓢듓샭싛짏퇐뺿펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄랢햹ힴ뿶ꎬ틔벰뛔춶맺뺭볃뗄펰쿬믺훆ꎬ늢춨맽럖컶펢맺몣췢춶튵컱ퟮ듳뗄뿧맺릫쮾횮튻ꆪꆪBP쪯폍릫쮾뗄좫쟲뺭펪햽싔캪샽ꎬ첽쳖펢맺뗄뿧맺릫쮾죧뫎랢햹뛔췢횱뷓춶햽싔ꆣ 1
쯦ퟅ뺭볃좫쟲뮯뗄떽살ꎬ컒맺샻폃췢튲헽듓놾쇷죫캪훷쿲ꆰ틽뷸살ꆱꆢꆰퟟ돶좥ꆱ늢뻙뗄쒣쪽뮻ꆣ볓죫쫀뷧쎳틗ퟩ횯뫳ꎬ훐맺붫쏦쇙룼맣랺뗄맺볊뺺헹ꎬꆰퟟ돶좥ꆱ쫇뛔췢뾪럅쪵쿖듓ꆰ쫐뎡뮻벼쫵ꆢ뮻뷰ꆱ떽ꆰ쫐뎡뮻쫐뎡ꆱ뗄햽싔헛ꆣ랢듯춶맺뛔췢춶뛔쒸맺뺭볃펰쿬뗄쪵횤퇐뺿돉맻ꎬ뛔컒맺쪵쪩ꆰퟟ돶좥ꆱ햽싔ꎬ뻟폐훘튪뗄샭싛횸떼틢틥폫쿖쪵뷨본틢틥ꆣ 뛾ꆢ쿠맘룅쓮닻쫶 뛔췢횱뷓춶ꎨForeign Direct Investment,FDIꎩꎬ폖돆캪췢맺횱뷓춶ꎬ췢짌횱뷓춶ꎬ맺볊횱뷓춶ꆣ듓뚫뗀맺뷇뛈뛸퇔ꎬ튻냣돆캪췢맺횱뷓춶믲췢짌횱뷓춶ꎬ튲돆캪횱뷓춶쇷죫ꎨInward FDIꎩꎻ듓춶맺뷇뛈돶랢ꎬ춨뎣돆캪뛔췢횱뷓춶ꎬ튲돆캪횱뷓춶쇷돶ꎨOutward FDIꎩꎻ뛸맺볊횱뷓춶솽훖쟩뿶뻹뿉쪹폃ꆣ평폚놾컄훷튪쫇햾퓚춶헟뗄뷇뛈살닻쫶ꎬ틲듋퓚놾컄훐듳뛠쪹폃뛔췢횱뷓춶헢튻쳡램ꆣ맘폚뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄뚨틥ꎬ볻죊볻훇ꎬ뻟폐듺뇭탔뗄폐ꎺ 맺볊믵뇒믹뷰ퟩ횯ꎨIMFꎩ뛔뛔췢횱뷓춶쯹쿂뗄뚨틥쫇ꎺꆰ퓚춶헟틔췢뗄뺭볃ꎨ맺볒ꎩ쯹뺭펪뗄웳튵훐펵폐돖탸쫕틦뗄튻훖춶ꎬ웤쒿뗄퓚[2]폚뛔룃웳튵뗄뺭펪맜샭뻟폐폐킧뗄랢퇔좨ꆣꆱ ꆶ탂엁뛻룱샗럲뺭볃톧듳듇뗤ꆷ뛔뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄뚨틥쫇ꎺ뛔췢횱뷓춶쫇ꆰ짦벰떽릤뎧뫍췁뗘뗈짺닺쇏쯹폐좨ꆱꎬ믲ꆰ막욱쯹폐좨쪹막뚫뿘훆쇋뎧짌뗄뺭펪믮뚯뗄춶ꆱꆣꆰ뛔췢횱뷓춶헟쫇캪쇋믱뗃폐킧뗄뿘훆좨틔벰닎폫뺭펪맜샭뗄좨샻ꎬ뛔췢횱뷓춶쯹좡뗃뗄쫇웳튵뗄샻죳ꆣꆱ뛸뛔췢볤뷓춶ꎨFIIꎩ쫇ꆰ캪쇋믱뗃춶쫕죫믲놾쫕틦ꎬ뛸늻쫇뛔웳튵[3]뗄뺭펪폐횱뷓탋좤ꆣꆱ뗄춶ꆣUNCTAD퓚ꆶ쫀뷧춶놨룦ꆷ뛔뛔췢횱뷓춶쯹쿂뗄뚨틥쫇ꎺꆰ뛔췢횱뷓춶뚨틥캪튻맺ꎨ뗘쟸ꎩ뗄뻓쏱쪵쳥ꎨ뛔췢횱뷓춶헟믲쒸릫쮾ꎩ퓚웤놾맺ꎨ뗘쟸ꎩ틔췢뗄쇭튻맺뗄웳튵ꎨ췢맺횱 2
뷓춶웳튵ꆢ럖횧웳튵믲맺췢럖횧믺릹ꎩ훐붨솢뎤웚맘쾵ꎬ쿭폐돖뻃샻틦ꎬ[4]늢뛔횮뷸탐뿘훆뗄춶ꆣꆱ 맘폚뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄뚯믺ꎬ톧헟뗄럖컶샠탍뇈뷏뛠ꎬ헫뛔랢듯맺볒ꎬ웤훷튪뚯믺죧쿂ꎺ 1ꎮ좷놣풭닄쇏릩펦ꎻ 2ꎮ믘뇜쎳틗뇚생좷놣몣췢쫐뎡ꎻ 3ꎮ붵뗍돉놾ꎺ샍뚯돉놾닮틬폐맘뗄돉놾붵뗍벰폫쮰쫕복죃쿠맘뗄돉놾붵뗍ꎻ 4ꎮ삩듳짺닺맦쒣쪵쿖맦쒣뺭볃킧틦ꎻ 5ꎮ쳡룟웳튵뗄춶샻죳쮮욽ꎻ 6ꎮ퇓뎤믲퓙톭뮷닺욷쫙쏼뫍샻죳뗈ꆣ 죽ꆢ퇐뺿랽램벰싛컄뷡릹 놾컄뗄퇐뺿랽램훷튪쳥쿖틔쿂쳘뗣ꎺ튻쫇ퟝ쿲뾼달폫뫡쿲뇈뷏쿠뷡뫏ꆣ춨맽뛔쫀뷧뛔췢횱뷓춶랢햹샺쪷폫쿖ힴ뫍펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶랢햹맬벣뗄뾼달ꎬ죏쪶뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄튻냣맦싉ꎬ닻쫶뛔췢횱뷓춶랢햹뗄쓚퓚뚯틲틔벰펢맺뛔맄샸뿧맺춶쯹룸폫뗄헾닟뫍훆뛈럶돖ꆣ뛾쫇뚨탔럖컶폫뚨솿럖컶쿠뷡뫏ꎬ퓚뚨탔럖컶뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ훷튪퓋폃춼뇭ꆢ쫽뻝쇏뫍틲맻맘쾵볬퇩뗈쫽솿럖컶랽램살쏨쫶폐맘뺭볃뇤솿횮볤뗄맘쾵ꎬ닻쫍뛔췢횱뷓춶뛔펢맺돶뿚뗄펰쿬ꆣ죽쫇맦랶퇐뺿폫쪵횤퇐뺿쿠뷡뫏ꆣ퓚맣랺쯑벯쫽뻝뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ솦헹폃쫂쪵쮵뮰ꎬ폃쫽뻝쮵뮰ꎬ붨솢볆솿쒣탍ꎬ틔펢맺몣췢춶튵컱ퟮ듳뗄뿧맺릫쮾횮튻ꆪꆪBP쪯폍릫쮾뗄좫쟲뺭펪햽싔캪샽ꎬ첽쳖펢맺뗄뿧맺릫쮾죧뫎뾪햹뛔췢횱뷓춶믮뚯ꆣ 쯄ꆢ훷튪맛뗣벰뒴탂ꎺ 1ꎮퟜ뷡쇋쫀뷧뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄랢햹샺쪷ꆢ쿖ힴ폫쟷쫆ꎻ 2ꎮ쾵춳뗘뾼달쇋펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄랢햹ힴ뿶폫쳘헷ꎻ 3
3ꎮ럖컶펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄뚯틲벰헾닟럶돖ꎻ 4ꎮ붨솢볆솿쒣탍ꎬ뷸탐뛔췢횱뷓춶뛔펢맺돶뿚펰쿬뗄뚨솿럖컶ꎻ 5ꎮ붨솢쒣탍럖컶펢맺몣췢춶튵컱ퟮ듳뗄뿧맺릫쮾횮튻ꆪꆪBP쪯폍릫쮾뗄좫쟲뺭펪햽싔ꎬ첽쳖펢맺뗄뿧맺릫쮾죧뫎뾪햹뛔췢횱뷓춶ꆣ 4
뗚튻헂 떱뷱좫쟲뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄ퟜ쳥ힴ뿶 뛔췢횱뷓춶ퟮ돵닺짺폚19쫀볍70쓪듺ꎬ떱쪱ꎬ튻킩랢듯놾훷틥맺볒뗄듳탍웳튵춨맽뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄랽쪽퓚맺췢짨솢럖횧믺릹ꆣ쏀맺뗄쪤볒러죒믺웷릫쮾싊쿈퓚얷훞뷸탐횱뷓춶ꆣ쏀맺뗄컷컝뗧웸릫쮾ꆢ낮뗏짺뗧웸릫쮾ꆢ틁쮹쳘싼뿂듯릫쮾뫍튻킩듳쪯폍릫쮾튲쿠볌랢햹뛔췢횱뷓춶ꆣ듓1870-1914쓪뿉틔쮵쫇뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄웰늽뷗뛎ꆣ믹폚떱쪱뗄맺볊헾훎뺭볃룱뻖ꎬ맺볊횱뷓춶훷튪뇭쿖캪놾훷틥ퟚ훷맺욾뷨웤헾훎ꆢ뺭볃ꆢ뻼쫂폅쫆ꎬ뛔웤횳쏱뗘맺볒뗄뒹횱춶ꎬ뻟폐얨뫱뗄ꆰ놾쫤돶ꆱ뗄즫닊ꆣ 듓1915쓪떽1945쓪쫇뛔췢횱뷓춶뮺싽랢햹뷗뛎ꎬ웤룹놾풭틲퓚폚솽듎쫀뷧듳햽뗄놬랢뫍30쓪듺뗄뺭볃듳쿴쳵ꎬ쪹뗃헻룶쫀뷧뺭볃뗄랢햹뮺싽,퓚튻킩쓪럝짵훁돶쿖쇋춣훍믲떹췋,맺볊횱뷓춶뗄랢햹틠쫇죧듋ꆣ듓1946쓪뾪쪼ꎬ맺볊횱뷓춶뷸죫쇋컈뚨룟쯙랢햹뗄뷗뛎ꎬ헢훷튪뗃틦폚뛾듎쫀뷧듳햽뫳맺볊헾훎뺭볃뻖쫆뗄쿠뛔컈뚨ꆢ뺭볃랢햹쯙뛈뗄늻뛏볓뿬ꆣ뛾쪮쫀볍80쓪듺틔뫳뛔췢횱뷓춶듓ퟜ쳥짏돶쿖룟쯙퓶뎤뗄첬쫆ꎬ훷튪돊쿖쿂쇐쳘뗣ꎺ 튻ꆢ뛔췢횱뷓춶쇷솿퓶뎤쯙뛈볓뿬 뛾쪮쫀볍80쓪듺틔뫳ꎬퟷ캪뛔췢횱뷓춶뿕잰랢햹뷗뛎ꎬ뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄쇷솿뗃떽쇋톸쯙삩듳ꎬ늢퓚2000쓪듯떽럥쪱웚ꎨ볻춼1-1ꎩꆣ듋쪱ꎬ뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄쇷돶솿캪틚쏀풪ꎬ쇷죫솿캪틚쏀풪ꆣ웤훐ꎬ랢듯맺볒뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄쇷돶솿캪틚쏀풪ꎬ쇷죫솿캪틚쏀풪ꎬ럖뇰햼ퟜ뛮뗄%뫍%ꆣ랢햹훐맺볒뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄쇷돶솿캪틚쏀풪ꎬ쇷죫솿캪틚쏀풪ꎬ럖뇰햼ퟜ뛮[5]뗄%뫍%ꆣ 5
2000쓪틔뫳ꎬ평폚뺭볃뎤웚뒦폚뗍쏔ힴ첬ꎬ좫쟲FDI쇷솿폐쯹쿂붵ꆣ좫쟲FDI쇷죫솿솬탸죽쓪복짙ꎬ2003쓪붵훁틚쏀풪ꎬ뷶캪2000쓪뗄%ꎬ쫇1998쓪틔살뗄ퟮ뗍뗣ꎻ뛸쇷돶솿캪틚쏀풪ꎬ튲[6]횻쫇2000쓪쇷돶솿뗄45%ꆣ좫쟲FDI쇷솿쿂붵놳뫳뗄훷튪틲쯘쫇쫀뷧듳늿럖뗘쟸뺭볃퓶뎤럅싽ꎬ틔벰뛔뢴쯕잰뺰뗄놯맛풤웚ꆣ 쏦뛔FDI쇷죫솿뗄복짙ꎬ탭뛠헾뢮뚼볓뿬쇋FDI쳥훆ퟔ평뮯뗄뷸돌ꆣ퓚뫪캢맛뮷뺳뫍훆뛈뮷뺳솼뫃뗄췆뚯쿂ꎬ듓2004쓪뾪쪼ꎬ좫쟲쇷솿랴떯ꎬ놣돖솬탸죽쓪뗄퓶뎤뗄쟷쫆ꆣ2006쓪좫쟲뛔췢횱뷓춶쇷죫솿듯떽풼13070틚쏀풪ꎬ뇈짏쓪퓶뎤38%,늢뷓뷼2000쓪뒴퓬뗄샺쪷볇슼ꆣ쇷돶솿[7]랽쏦튲폐톸쏍뗄퓶뎤ꎬ듯떽12160틚쏀풪ꎬ뇈짏쓪퓶뎤%ꆣ 1600000 1400000 1200000 1000000FDI쇷죫솿 800000FDI쇷돶솿600000 400000 200000 0 춼1-1ꎺ좫쟲뛔췢횱뷓춶쇷솿쟷쫆춼 쇏살풴ꎺ룹뻝 Investment Report 1981-2007[R].New York and Geneva:UN Publication,1981-2007뗄쫽뻝헻샭믦훆 뛾ꆢ뛔췢횱뷓춶ퟜ듦솿벱쯙엲헍 듓맺볊횱뷓춶뗄듦솿짏뾴ꎬ룹뻝UNCTAD뿉닩쫽뻝ꎬ듓1980쓪뾪쪼ꎬ맺볊횱뷓춶뗄듦솿튻횱뒦폚컈늽퓶뎤ힴ첬ꎨ볻춼1-2ꎩꆣ뷘횹떽2006쓪ꎬ 6냙췲쏀풪198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006
뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄쇷죫듦솿듯틚쏀풪ꎬ쇷돶듦솿듯틚[8]쏀풪ꆣ헢쮵쏷뛔췢횱뷓춶ퟜ듦솿벱쯙엲헍ꎬ짺닺뗄맺볊뮯죕쟷쏷쿔ꆣ 14000000 12000000 10000000 8000000FDI쇷죫솿 6000000FDI쇷돶솿 4000000 2000000 0 춼1-2ꎺ좫쟲뛔췢횱뷓춶듦솿쟷쫆춼 쇏살풴ꎺ룹뻝 Investment Report 1981-2007[R].New York and Geneva:UN Publication,1981-2007뗄쫽뻝헻샭믦훆 죽ꆢ뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄훷튪맺볒쫇랢듯맺볒ꎬ랢햹훐맺볒뛔췢춶쿠뛔뷏짙 뛾쪮쫀볍70쓪듺횮잰ꎬ뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄훷쳥훷튪쫇랢듯맺볒ꎬ얷쏀맺볒돉캪뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄훷솦뻼ꎬ뛸랢햹훐맺볒뗄뛔췢횱뷓춶퓲쿔뗃캢늻ퟣ뗀ꆣ뷸죫뛾쪮쫀볍70쓪듺횮뫳ꎬ랢햹훐맺볒뫍뗘쟸뗄췢맺횱뷓춶쇷솿퓶뎤뷏뿬ꎬ탂볓웂ꆢ훐맺쿣룛ꆢ몫맺ꆢ럆싉뇶ꆢ낢룹춢ꆢ냍컷ꆢ쒫컷룧ꆢ캯쓚죰삭뗈맺볒뫍뗘쟸ꎬ볈믽벫틽뷸췢맺횱뷓춶ꎬ폖듳솦랢햹뛔췢횱뷓춶ꎬ돉캪랢햹훐맺볒훷튪뗄춶맺ꎨ믲뗘쟸ꎩꆣ떫듓ퟜ쳥룱뻖살뾴ꎬ떱뷱맺볊횱뷓춶뗄훷튪맺볒뫍뗘쟸죔좻쫇랢듯맺볒ꎨ볻춼1-3ꆢ춼1-4ꎩꆣFDI쫤죫뫍쫤돶듦솿벯훐퓚죽벫ꎨ얷쏋ꆢ죕놾뫍쏀맺ꎩ뗄룱뻖죔좻놣돖컈뚨ꆣ떫퓚쫀뷧ퟮ듳뗄FDI쫜맺훐ꎬퟷ캪랢햹훐맺볒뗄훐맺뗄웰뻙쫀훵쒿ꆣ 7냙췲쏀풪198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006
1800000 16000001400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000 400000 200000쏀펢램뇈훐볓훐뗂틢슬뛭죰죰탂냄췁컷쒫냍즳0 맺맺맺샻맺쓃맺맺듳즭싞뗤쪿볓듳뛺냠컷컷쳘 쪱듳쿣샻놤쮹웂샻웤퇀룧낢룛퇇삭 늮 춼1-3ꎺ2006쓪쫀뷧훷튪맺볒뫍뗘쟸췢맺횱뷓춶쇷죫듦솿 쇏살풴ꎺ룹뻝 Investment Report 2007[R].New York and Geneva:UN Publication, 2007뗄쫽뻝헻샭믦훆 2400000 2200000 2000000 1800000 16000001400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000400000 200000 쏀램컷죰펢뗂뇈죕볓훐틢냍죰뫉냄낮뛭훐틔얲0맺맺냠쪿맺맺샻놾쓃맺듳컷뗤삼듳뛻싞맺즫췾 퇀쪱듳쿣샻샻삼쮹쇐룛퇇 춼1-4ꎺ2006쓪쫀뷧훷튪맺볒뫍뗘쟸췢맺횱뷓춶쇷돶듦솿 쇏살풴ꎺ룹뻝 Investment Report 2007[R].New York and Geneva:UN Publication, 2007뗄쫽뻝헻샭믦훆 8
쯄ꆢ뿧맺늢릺믮뚯뗄퓶뎤횧독쇋쒿잰좫쟲뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄짏짽 2006쓪ꎬ뿧맺늢릺붻틗늻뷶퓚뷰뛮짏ꎨ뇈짏쓪쳡룟23%ꎬ듯떽8800틚쏀풪ꎩ뛸쟒퓚쫽솿짏ꎨ뇈짏쓪쳡룟14%ꎬ듯떽6974뇊ꎩꎬ뻹쿔훸퓶뎤ꎬ뷓뷼2000쓪듯떽뗄짏튻룶늢릺룟럥ꆣ룼룟뗄막욱쫐뎡맀횵ꆢ늻뛏쳡룟뗄릫쮾펯샻뫍폐샻뗄죚쳵볾쟽뚯쇋헢튻퓶뎤ꆣ퓚듋랬좫쟲늢릺믮뚯훐튻룶횵뗃힢틢뗄쟷쫆쫇쮽죋막좨춶믹뷰뫍웤쯻벯쳥춶믹뷰뗄훘튪탔죕틦퓶뎤ꆣ2006쓪ꎬ쯼쏇닎폫뗄뿧맺늢릺뗄뷰뛮듯떽1580틚쏀풪ꎬ뷏2005쓪퓶뎤쇋18%ꆣ뛔룼룟믘놨싊뗄늻뛏퓶뎤뗄ힷ쟳뫍쫀뷧뷰죚쫐뎡짏돤펯뗄[9]쇷뚯뷰냯훺듙돉쇋헢킩쫕릺ꆣ 컥ꆢ뿧맺릫쮾돉캪뛔췢횱뷓춶훷쳥 2006쓪ꎬ뿧맺릫쮾퓚웤쒸맺틔췢뷸탐뗄닺욷뫍샍컱뗄짺닺뷏췹쓪퓶뎤룼뿬ꎬ맍풱쫽솿ퟔ1990쓪틔살틑뺭퓶뎤쇋뷼죽놶ꆣ78000볒뿧맺릫쮾뫍쯼쏇쯹쿂쾽뗄780000볒췢맺ퟓ릫쮾뗄쿺쫛뛮ꆢ퓶볓횵뫍돶뿚ꎬ맀볆럖뇰퓶뎤쇋18%ꆢ16%ꆢ12%ꆣ쯼쏇햼좫쫀뷧맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뗄10%뫍좫쫀뷧돶[10]뿚뛮뗄죽럖횮튻ꆣ 쫀뷧뿧맺릫쮾ퟜ쳥짏죔평랢듯맺볒뗄웳튵쯹훷떼ꆣ쫀뷧럇뷰죚뿧맺릫쮾100잿냱뗄업쏻쟩뿶튻횱놣돖쿠뛔컈뚨ꎬ웤훐춨폃뗧웸ꎨ쏀맺ꎩꆢ컖듯럡ꎨ펢맺ꎩꆢ춨폃웻뎵ꎨ쏀맺ꎩꆢ펢맺BP쪯폍릫쮾ꎨ펢맺ꎩꆢ뫉삼뿇없벯췅[11]ꎨ펢맺ꆢ뫉삼ꎩ펵폐ퟮ듳뗄맺췢닺ꎨ틀뻝맺췢닺듳킡업쇐ꎩꆣ ퟛ짏쫶럖컶뿉볻ꎬ뛔췢횱뷓춶틑뺭돉캪떱뷱맺볊뺭볃붻틗뗄훷떼솦솿ꆣ냩쯦ퟅ뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄늻뛏랢햹ꎬ튲춬쪱듸살쇋맺볊볤쎳틗뗄랢햹벰벼쫵뗄틆ꎬ쎳틗뫍벼쫵죕틦놻쓉죫맺볊횱뷓춶뗄뷡릹횮훐ꆣ 9
뗚뛾헂 펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶랢햹ힴ뿶벰풭틲럖컶 뗚튻뷚 펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄랢햹ힴ뿶 펢맺튻횱쫇맺볊놾뗄훘튪쫤돶맺ꎬ짏쫀볍냋쪮쓪듺짏냫웚펢뛔췢춶뛮뿉폫쏀죕쿠쏀ꎬ떫쯦ퟅ뻅쪮쓪듺돵웚뗄뺭볃쮥췋ꎬ펢맺뛔췢춶튲쯦횮듳럹쿂붵ꎬ횮뫳폖뾪쪼듳럹엊짽ꎬ 2000쓪뛔췢춶뛮듯1690틚펢[12]냷ꎬ캪샺쪷ퟮ룟ꆣ웤뫳쯦ퟅ맺볊볤웳튵볦늢벰뫏늢샋뎱뗄뷡쫸ꎬ펢맺뛔췢춶훰늽믘맩샭탔ꆣ 뷘훁2003쓪ꎬ펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶ퟜ뛮듯3370틚펢냷ꎬ돖폐췢맺닺ퟜ뛮35500틚펢냷ꆣ2004쓪펢맺뛔췢폐볛횤좯춶샛믽1070틚펢냷ꎬ뛔췢횱뷓춶357틚펢냷ꆣ2005쓪펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶듯460틚펢냷ꎬ캪쫀뷧뗚죽[13]듳뛔췢춶맺ꆣ 튻ꆢ틔듦솿뫢솿펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶맦쒣뗄쫀뷧뗘캻 맛달펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶뛮뗄쇷돶듦솿ꎬ쫗쿈쓜좷뚨펢맺퓚쫀뷧짏ퟷ캪춶듳맺뗄뗘캻ꆣ뛾햽틔뫳ꎬ펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶톸쯙랢햹ꎬ뺡맜쯹햼쫀뷧뛔췢횱뷓춶ퟜ솿뗄뇈훘돊쿂붵쟷쫆ꎬ떫웤췢쿲탍FDIퟜ솿죔좻뒦폚얷훞틔벰쫀뷧뗄쇬쿈쮮욽ꆣꎨ볻뇭2-1ꎩ 10
뇭2-1ꎺ쫀뷧훷튪맺볒뫍뗘쟸샛믽췢쿲탍FDI쯹햼뇈훘ꎨ떥캻ꎺ냙럖뇈ꎩ 19801999 20002001200220032004 2005 2006 랢듯맺볒 펢맺 뗂맺 램맺 뫉삼 웤쯻컷얷룷맺 죕놾 쏀맺 쫀뷧웤쯻랢듯맺볒 랢햹훐맺볒 ퟜ볆100 100100100100100100100100쇏살풴ꎺ룹뻝 Investment Report 1981-2007[R].New York and Geneva:UN Publication,1981-2007뗄쫽뻝헻샭뇠훆 뛾ꆢ틔쇷솿뫢솿펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶맦쒣뗄뇤뮯쟷쫆 틀뻝샺쓪솪뫏맺쎳틗뫍랢햹믡틩랢늼뗄ꆶ쫀뷧춶놨룦ꆷꎬ뾼달1980쓪떽2005쓪뗄쫽뻝ꎬ펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄쓪쇷돶솿뗄뇤뮯뿉틔럖캪컥룶뷗뛎ꆣꎨ볻춼2-1ꎩ 뗚튻뷗뛎ꎬ1980쓪ꆪꆪ1988쓪ꎬ헢튻뷗뛎펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶쇷돶솿컈늽짏짽ꆣ듓1980뗄 틚쏀풪ꎬ떽1988쓪뗄틚쏀풪ꎬ쎿쓪뗄쇷돶솿뚼뷏잰튻쓪뗝퓶ꆣ1988쓪펢맺돉캪췢횱뷓춶쇷돶솿ퟮ뛠뗄맺볒ꎬ듯떽쇋헢튻뷗뛎뗄뚥럥ꆣ 뗚뛾뷗뛎ꎬ1989쓪ꆪꆪ1996쓪ꎬ펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶쇷돶솿뗄쟷쫆춼돊쟺헛랴뢴탎첬ꆣ1989쓪ꎬ퓚뺭샺쇋돖탸컈뚨뗄짏헇횮뫳ꎬ펢맺FDI쇷돶솿돶쿖쇋헛뗣ꎬ믘실떽틚쏀풪ꆣ뛸쯦뫳뗄죽쓪ꎬ쇷돶솿룼쫇벱뻧쿂붵ꎬ1991쓪쿂첽떽 틚쏀풪ꎬ늻ퟣ1986쓪뗄쮮욽ꎬ듯떽쇋헢튻뷗뛎뗄ퟮ뗍뗣ꆣퟔ1993쓪횮뫳ꎬ펢맺FDI쇷돶솿폖훘탂믘짽ꎬ늢훰붥뎬풽뗚튻뷗뛎뗄쇷돶솿쮮욽ꆣ 뗚죽뷗뛎ꎬ1997ꆪꆪ2000쓪ꎬ퓚헢쯄쓪훐ꎬ펢맺펭살쇋뛔췢횱뷓춶 11
뗄뗄룟럥뷗뛎ꎬFDI쇷돶솿쫗듎춻웆잧틚쏀풪ꎬ1997쓪떽1999쓪횮볤ꎬ쎿튻쓪뗄쇷솿뚼돊벸뫵튻놶뗄쯙뛈퓶뎤ꆣ헢튻뷗뛎튲쫇맺볊놾믮뚯ퟮ캪믮풾뗄쪱웚ꎬ좫쟲쿆웰뿧맺늢릺죈뎱ꎬ뺭볃좫쟲뮯뫍쟸폲뺭볃튻쳥뮯쟷쫆쿔훸볓뿬ꆣ룹뻝솪뫏맺쎳랢믡틩ꆶ쫀뷧춶놨룦ꆷ뗄춳볆쫽ퟖꎺ1997쓪틔뫳쫀뷧FDI뗄쇷돶뫍쇷죫뗄퓶럹뇈1996쓪뚸좻짽룟ꎬ1996쓪쇷돶ퟜ뛮퓶럹캪59%ꎬ1997ꆢ1998뫍1999럖뇰캪%ꆢ%뫍%ꆣ뛸쇮죋훵쒿뗄쫇뿧맺늢릺늿럖뗄퓶럹풶룟폚FDI뗄퓶뎤ꎬ1996쓪뗄퓶럹뷶캪%ꎬ1997ꆢ1998ꆢ1999뫍2000쓪퓲럖뇰풾짽캪%ꆢ%ꆢ%뫍%ꎬ뿧맺늢릺뗄퓶럹쫇1996쓪뗄2놶틔짏ꎬ듓뛸쪹쯼퓚쫀뷧FDI훐뗄뇈훘튲평1996쓪뗄40%짏짽떽쇋2000쓪뗄%ꆣ헢쮵쏷뿧맺늢릺틑돉캪FDI뗄훷튪랽쪽ꎬ뛸싌뗘춶췋뻓떽듎튪뗘캻ꎬ뿧맺릫쮾퓚듋뷗뛎냧퇝쇋쪮럖훘튪뗄뷇즫ꆣ퓚헢튻싖쫀뷧FDI뗄믆뷰믮뚯웚훐ꎬ펢맺볈쮳펦쇋쫀뷧뺭볃랢햹뗄쟷쫆ꎬ폖퓚헢튻싖늢릺삩헅훐랢믓쇋뻙ퟣ쟡훘뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ얷쏀뗄뿧맺릫쮾늢릺춶쫽뛮뻞듳ꎬ웤훐쏀맺뫍펢맺쫇뿧맺늢릺뗄훷뷇ꎬ1997뫍1998쓪쏀펢퓚좫쟲뿧맺늢릺ퟜ뛮훐뫏볆풼햼1ꎯ3뫍1ꎯ2ꆣ 뗚쯄뷗뛎ꎬ2001쓪ꆪꆪ2003쓪ꎬ펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶돊쿂붵쟷쫆ꆣ2001쓪웰쫀뷧놾쇷뚯폐쇋튻킩탂뇤뮯ꎬFDI쇷돶뛮돶쿖쏷쿔쿂붵ꎬ2000쓪뗄풼췲틚쏀풪쿂붵떽2001쓪뗄풼7600틚쏀풪ꎬ쿂붵럹뛈듯떽40%ꆣ2002쓪쫀뷧뛔췢횱뷓춶뷏잰튻쓪폖쿂붵쇋22ꎥꆣ펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶쿂붵폈캪쏷쿔ꎬ듓2000쓪뗄뷼2400틚쏀풪훨붵떽2002쓪뗄붫뷼600틚쏀풪ꎬ쿂붵쇋쯄놶뛠ꆣ뺿웤풭틲ꎬ훷튪틲캪쫇쯦ퟅ쏀맺뺭볃퓶뎤훜웚뗄뷡쫸뫍ꆰꆱ뿖닀쫂볾뗄돥믷ꎬ쫀뷧뺭볃탎쫆쟷폚뛱뮯ꎬ맺볊쎳틗뫍춶믮뚯튲쫜떽쇋짮뿌펰쿬ꆣ웤훐뿧맺늢릺믮뚯튲쯦횮듳럹복짙ꎬ몽뿕튵뫍IT튵뗄튻킩듳웳튵쿠볌웆닺ꆣ2000쓪좫쫀뷧늢릺뛮듯떽췲틚쏀풪ꎬ늢릺낸7900폠웰ꎬ2001쓪늢릺뛮횻폐6000틚쏀풪ꎬ늢릺낸캪6000폠웰ꆣ펢 12
맺튲짮쫜쫀뷧뺭볃뮷뺳뗄펰쿬ꎬ뛔췢춶믮뚯돊뗍쏔ힴ첬ꆣ 뗚컥뷗뛎ꎬ2004쓪뫍2005쓪ꎬ펢뛔췢춶훰늽믘맩샭탔ꆣ퓚뫪캢맛뮷뺳뫍훆뛈뮷뺳솼뫃뗄췆뚯쿂ꎬ듓2004쓪뾪쪼ꎬ좫쟲쇷솿랴떯ꎬ놣돖솬[14]탸퓶뎤뗄쟷쫆ꎬ펢맺뛔췢춶튲믖뢴샭탔퓶뎤첬쫆ꆣ 1400000 1200000 1000000 800000쫀뷧 랢듯맺볒 600000펢맺 400000 200000 0 춼2-1ꎺ펢맺FDI쇷돶솿쟷쫆춼 쇏살풴ꎺ룹뻝 Investment Report 1981-2007[R].New York and Geneva:UN Publication,1981-2007뗄쫽뻝헻샭믦훆 죽ꆢ펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄쟸폲럖늼 펢맺뛔췢춶쿠뛔뇈뷏벯훐ꆣ뻝펢맺맺볒춳볆쫰뗄쫽ퟖꎬ2005쓪펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶듯460틚펢냷ꎬ웤훐 30ꎥ쇷쿲얷훞ꎬ50ꎥ쇷쿲쏀훞ꎬ퇇훞뷶햼펢맺뛔췢춶뗄10ꎥꎬ럇훞햼14ꎥꆣ쏀맺쫇펢맺ퟮ훷튪뗄춶쒿뗄맺ꆣ2005쓪쏀맺릲컼틽펢맺춶179틚펢냷ꎬ햼펢맺뛔좫쟲춶뗄 [15]39% ꆣ 펢맺웳튵2005쓪몣췢춶쫕죫뒴샺쪷탂룟ꎬ듯떽 779틚펢냷ꆣ펢맺 1319801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005
웳튵퓚얷훞ꆢ쏀훞ꆢ퇇훞뫍럇훞뗄춶쫕죫럖뇰캪332틚펢냷ꆢ254틚펢냷ꆢ107틚펢냷뫍54틚펢냷ꆣ얷훞쫇펢맺웳튵몣췢춶쫕죫ퟮ룟뗄뗘쟸ꆣ2005쓪ꎬ펢맺웳튵퓚얷훞춶쫕죫햼웤퓚좫쟲춶쫕죫뗄43%ꎬ퓚쏀훞춶쫕죫햼33% ꆣ쏀맺쫇펢맺몣췢춶쫕죫ퟮ룟뗄맺볒ꎬ2005쓪펢맺퓚쏀맺춶쫕죫듯177틚펢냷ꎬ햼펢맺퓚좫쟲춶쫕죫뗄 23% ꆣ퓚뫉삼뗄춶쫕죫캪88틚펢냷ꎬ햼펢맺퓚좫쟲춶쫕죫뗄 11% ꎬ햼펢맺퓚얷훞뗘쟸[16]춶ퟜ쫕죫뗄27% ꆣ 뷘훁2006쓪뗗ꎬ펢맺웳튵샛볆퓚뮪춶짨솢웳튵듯 5359룶ꎬ쪵볊[17]춶139틚쏀풪ꎬ쫇얷쏋뗚튻듳뛔뮪춶맺ꆣ 뇭2-2ꎺ펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄뗘쟸럖늼ꎺ 떥캻ꎺ틚펢냷 뗘쟸 2005쓪뛔췢춶뛮 2005쓪뛔췢춶쫕죫 얷훞139332쏀훞231254 퇇훞 46 107냄듳샻퇇벰듳퇳훞 -2331 럇훞6854ퟜ볆460 779쇏살풴ꎺ훐맺쎳듙믡펢맺듺뇭뒦.펢맺컼틽췢뫍뛔췢춶헾닟[R].훐맺맺볊쎳틗듙뷸캯풱믡뺭볃탅쾢늿,2007 쇭췢횵뗃힢틢뗄쫇ꎬ쯦ퟅ탂뗄훘튪뗄뚫뗀맺뫍쒸맺뺭볃쳥뗄돶쿖ꎬ췢맺횱뷓춶뗄뗘샭럖늼쳘헷헽퓚룄뇤ꆣ뛔췢횱뷓춶쮫뇟쇷솿뗄쳘헷헽퓚랢짺뇤뮯ꎬ2005쓪ퟮ듳뗄쮫뇟췢쿲췢맺횱뷓춶듦솿쫇펢맺뛔쏀맺뗄춶[18]ꎬ듯떽쇋2820틚쏀풪ꎻ20쓪잰뗄쟩뿶잡뫃쿠랴ꆣ퓚1985쓪쮫뇟췢맺횱뷓춶맘쾵뗄좫쟲냦춼훐ꎬ쳘뚨뺭볃쳥횮볤뗄쮫뇟맘쾵햼뻸뛔폅쫆ꎬ뻍펢맺살쮵ꎬ웤폫뫉삼뗄쮫뇟맘쾵뻍쫇뗤탍ꆣ뛸죧뷱뗄ힴ뿶퓲돊쿖돶쿠떱듳뗄뛠쏦탔ꎬ랴펳쇋폐훚뛠뗄맺볒볓죫떽맺볊짺닺훐ꆣ(볻뇭2-3) 14
뇭2-3ꎺ1985ꆢ1995뫍2005쓪내뚫뗀맺뛔쓚췢맺횱뷓춶듦솿업쇐뗄20뛔ퟮ듳뗄췢맺횱뷓춶쒸맺ꆪ뚫뗀맺믯냩뺭볃쳥ꎨ10틚쏀풪ꎩ 업쏻 쒸뺭볃쳥 뚫뗀뺭볃쳥1985쓪 1995쓪 2005쓪 1 펢맺 쏀맺 441162822 훐맺쿣룛 훐맺 120 242 3 쏀맺 펢맺 48852344 죕놾 쏀맺19 105 190 5 뗂맺 쏀맺 15461846 쏀맺 볓쓃듳 49 83 177 7 뫉삼 쏀맺37651718 훐맺 훐맺쿣룛 28 164 9 펢쫴캬뛻뺩좺떺훐맺쿣룛 70 164 10 볓쓃듳 쏀맺174614411 램맺 쏀맺 7 36 143 12 죰쪿 쏀맺112712213 슬즭놤 쏀맺 6 117 14 뫉삼 뗂맺53411115 뫉삼 램맺 10 31 102 16 펢맺 램맺9269617 뫉삼 펢맺 17 27 93 18 뗂맺 펢맺3148619 쏀맺 뫉삼 8 25 84 20 램맺 펢맺51380 쇏살풴ꎺ Investment Report 2007[R].New York and Geneva:UN Publication,2007. 뗚뛾뷚 펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄뫪맛뚯틲 맺볊뺭볃믮뚯뢴퓓럗랱ꎬ잧뇤췲뮯ꎬ펰쿬뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄뫪맛틲쯘튲쫇뛠랽쏦뗄뫍뇤뮯늻뚨뗄ꆣ캪쇋쮵쏷펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶톸쯙랢햹뗄풭틲ꎬ놾뷚붫듓죽룶랽쏦뗄뫪맛틲쯘뷸탐럖컶ꆣ 15
튻ꆢ햽뫳뿆벼룯쏼뫍짺닺솦뗄톸쯙랢햹 햽뫳뿆벼룯쏼뗄톸쯙랢햹캪펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶쳡릩쇋컯훊믹뒡ꆣ헢훷튪뇭쿖퓚틔쿂솽룶랽쏦ꎺ쫗쿈ꎬ햽뫳뿆벼룯쏼뗄랢햹뛔짺닺솦훮틲쯘웰쇋훘듳펰쿬ꎬ벫듳뗘쳡룟쇋샍뚯짺닺싊ꎬ듓뛸폐솦뗘췆뚯쇋뺭볃뗄랢햹ꎬ듙뷸쇋펢맺뗄쮽죋슢뛏뫍맺볒슢뛏놾훷틥뗄듳랢햹ꆣ쯦ퟅ슢뛏돌뛈뗄볓짮ꎬ닆뢻뗄톸쯙엲헍ꎬ맽쪣놾튲퓚벱뻧퓶볓ꎬ펵폐듳솿놾뫍쿈뷸벼쫵뗄슢뛏웳튵뻍폐뿉쓜뫍폐쪵솦떽맺췢톰헒폐샻뗄춶뎡쯹ꎻ웤듎ꎬ뿆벼룯쏼듙뷸쇋짺닺솦뗄랢햹ꎬ붻춨ꆢ춨톶뗄쿖듺뮯뫍맜샭뗄볆쯣믺뮯ꎬ캪뿧맺릫쮾뷸탐뛔췢횱뷓춶ꆢ퓚맺볊랶캧쓚ퟩ횯짺닺뫍맜샭쳡릩쇋컯훊쳵볾ꆣ 뛾ꆢ놾맺볊뮯뫍짺닺맘쾵맺볊뮯 뿆벼룯쏼뫍짺닺솦뗄랢햹듙뷸쇋맺볊럖릤뗄짮뮯ꆣ짺닺뗄짧믡뮯랢햹췆뚯쇋짺닺뗄맺볊뮯ꎬ벴냑럖늼폚룷맺뗄훚뛠웳튵뷴쏜뗘솪쾵퓚춬튻룶짺닺맽돌횮훐ꎬ듓뛸튪쟳뿧맺릫쮾춨맽뛔췢횱뷓춶살뿘훆좫쟲웳튵뗄짺닺맽돌ꎬ헢뻍쫇놾뗄맺볊뮯ꆣ햽뫳놾맺볊뮯랢햹뗄훷튪쳘뗣쫇닺튵놾듳맦쒣맺볊뮯ꎬ뛸뿧맺릫쮾뛔췢횱뷓춶톸쯙랢햹퓲쫇닺튵놾맺볊뮯뗄훘튪뇭쿖ꆣ짺닺맺볊뮯폫놾맺볊뮯뗄랢햹틢캶ퟅ짺닺솦맺볊뮯ꎬ쯦횮폖믡듙쪹짺닺맘쾵뗄맺볊뮯ꆣ평듋뿉볻ꎬ놾맺볊뮯뫍짺닺맘쾵맺볊뮯쫇뛔췢랢짺횱뷓춶뗄훘튪풭틲ꆣ 죽ꆢ룷맺헾닟듫쪩뗄뗷헻 햽뫳캪쇋쫊펦탂뗄맺볊헾훎뺭볃탎쫆ꎬ듙뷸뺭볃뗄랢햹ꎬ랢듯놾훷틥맺볒뫍랢햹훐맺볒뚼훆뚨뫍뗷헻쇋룷ퟔ뗄췢맺횱뷓춶헾닟ꎬ럗럗닉폃맄샸춶믲컼쫕춶뗄헾닟ꎬ헢컞틉룸펢맺뗄뛔췢횱뷓춶톸쯙랢햹쳡릩쇋맣삫뗄믺믡ꆣ튻랽쏦ꎬ햽뫳뫜뛠랢듯놾맺볒뺭볃쫜떽쇋뻞듳듲믷ꎬ훘헱맺쓚뺭볃탨튪듳솿췢살뷰쏖늹맺쓚뗄뻞뛮뷰좱뿚ꆣ70 쓪듺틔살ꎬ룷맺웳튵캪쇋헹뛡맺볊쫐뎡ꎬ뺺쿠맄샸놾맺뿧맺릫쮾뛔췢횱뷓춶ꎬ춬쪱 16
ퟷ캪믘펦튲훰늽럅뾪뛔뛔췢맺횱뷓춶뗄쿞훆ꎻ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ랢햹훐맺볒퓚뺭볃랢햹맽돌훐웕뇩듦퓚ퟅ뷰늻ퟣꆢ벼쫵실뫳뫍좱랦맜샭뺭퇩뗈컊쳢ꎬ틲듋쾣췻쓜릻퓚캬뮤웤맺볒훷좨뗄잰쳡쿂컼쫕췢맺횱뷓춶ꆣ80 쓪듺살ꎬ탭뛠랢햹훐맺볒훰늽뗷헻쇋뛔췢맺횱뷓춶뗄첬뛈ꎬ평맽좥뗄퇏룱쿞훆뇤캪닉좡볈쿞훆폖샻폃뗄헾닟ꎬ짵훁뮹럗럗훆뚨쇋컼틽췢뗄폅믝헾닟ꎬ듓뛸캪펢맺뗄뛔췢횱뷓춶쳡릩쇋튻룶솼뫃뗄췢늿뮷뺳ꆣ 뗚죽뷚 펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄캢맛뚯틲 듙쪹햽뫳펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶뿕잰랢햹늻뷶폐뫪맛랽쏦뗄풭틲ꎬ뛸쟒뮹폐캢맛랽쏦뗄풭틲ꎬ벴웳튵캪쇋ퟔ짭뗄샻틦뫍랢햹뛸뷸탐뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄뚯믺ꆣퟜ뗄살쮵햽뫳듙쪹펢맺웳튵뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄캢맛뚯틲냼삨틔쿂벸룶훷튪샠탍ꆣ 튻ꆢힷ쟳룟뛮샻죳쫇펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶톸쯙랢햹뗄룹놾뚯틲 ힷ쟳룟뛮샻죳쫇놾뗄쳬좻놾탔ꆣ떱퓚맺췢춶뇈퓚맺쓚춶룼폐샻뿉춼쪱ꎬ놾뇘좻쇷쿲맺췢ꆣ펢맺뿧맺릫쮾뛔췢횱뷓춶ꎬ쳘뇰쫇뛔랢햹훐맺볒뗄횱뷓춶쯹믱샻죳튪풶풶룟폚퓚맺쓚춶뗄샻죳ꆣ샽죧퓚70쓪듺쒩ꎬ펢맺맺쓚훆퓬튵욽뻹샻죳싊캪13%ퟳ폒ꎬ뛸1979쓪펢맺퓚랢듯맺볒횱뷓춶뗄샻죳캪%ꎬ 퓚랢햹훐맺횱뷓춶뗄샻죳싊퓲룟듯32%ꆣ펢맺퓚랢듯맺볒뫍랢햹훐맺볒횱뷓춶샻죳싊1985쓪럖뇰캪%뫍%ꎬ1987쓪럖뇰캪%뫍%ꎬ1989쓪럖뇰캪%뫍%ꆣ[19]죧듋럡뫱뗄샻죳쫇펢맺웳튵뷸탐뛔췢춶뗄룹놾뚯솦ꆣ 뛾ꆢ펢맺뿧맺릫쮾펵폐뗄룷훖폅쫆쫇펢맺쪵탐뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄뺭볃믹뒡 튻냣쮵살뿧맺릫쮾퓚맺췢춶붨솢ퟓ릫쮾폫퓚맺쓚뺭펪쿠뇈믡폶떽 17
룼뛠뗄삧쓑ꎬ쓇쎴캪쪲쎴펢맺뿧맺릫쮾죔좻뻶뚨뛔췢횱뷓춶쓘ꎿ룹뻝뗋쓾뗄맺볊짺닺헛훐샭싛컒쏇죏캪ꎬ튻랽쏦쫇평폚슢뛏놾쓚퓚뗄놾훊ꎨힷ쟳룟뛮샻죳ꎩ뫍췢퓚뗄톹솦ꎨ맺볊뺺헹풽살풽벤쇒ꎩ쪹웤폐쿲췢삩헅뗄뇘튪탔ꎻ쇭튻랽쏦쫇평폚헢킩뿧맺릫쮾펵폐훚뛠슢뛏폅쫆ꎬ헢킩폅쫆쪹펢맺뿧맺릫쮾뛔췢횱뷓춶돉캪뿉쓜ꆣ펢맺뎤웚틔살퓚쫀뷧뺭볃뫍뿆벼훐펵폐뻸뛔폅쫆쫇폫웤퓚횪쪶짺닺뫍삩즢랽쏦뗄룟춶죫럖늻뾪뗄ꆣ쒿잰펢맺쎿쓪폃폚횪쪶짺닺벰웤삩즢뗄뾪횧틑햼웤GDP뗄25%틔짏ꎬ웤훐뷌폽햼10%ꎬ[20]엠통뫍퓚횰뷌폽햼10%ꎬ퇐뺿뫍뾪랢햼5%ퟳ폒ꆣ잿듳뗄뺭볃쪵솦쓜캪뷌폽뫍퇐랢뗄룟춶죫뗬뚨믹뒡ꎬ랴맽살ꎬ솼뫃뷌폽쯹엠퇸돶살뗄폅탣죋닅뫍퇐랢쯹뒴퓬돶살뗄탂벼쫵ꆢ탂닺욷폖쫇듙뷸펢맺뺭볃랢햹뗄훘튪솦솿ꎬ듓뛸캪웤뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄톸쯙랢햹뒴퓬쇋훮뛠폅쫆ꆣ 죽ꆢ믱좡컈뚨뗄풴릩펦쫇펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄튻룶훘튪뚯믺 헢쫇횸펢맺캪톰쟳컈뚨뗄풴릩펦뫍샻폃솮볛풴뛸뷸탐뗄뛔췢횱뷓춶ꆣ헢샠춶뿉럖캪솽훖쟩뿶ꎺ튻쫇틔톰쟳ퟔ좻풴캪쒿뇪ꆣ뎤웚틔살ꎬ펢맺쫇룷훖뿳닺욷뺻뷸뿚맺ꎬ웤훐쪯폍뗄뷸뿚풼햼맺쓚쿻럑뗄튻냫ퟳ폒ꆣ펢맺퓚럇훞ꆢ삭뚡쏀훞ꆢ훐뚫뗈뗘쟸뗄풴탍뿘훆춶튻횱뚼쫇퓚헢킩뗘쟸뗄훘튪춶늿쏅ꆣ퓚20쫀볍60쓪듺훁80쓪듺웚볤ꎬ펢맺뛔럇훞뿳닺풴뗄춶튻횱뚼햼떽퓚룃뗘쟸횱뷓춶ퟜ뛮뗄1/3ퟳ폒ꆣ20쫀볍60쓪듺쒩ꎬ펢맺쯹뿘훆뗄훐뚫쪯폍ퟢ죃뗘햼떽룃뗘쟸퓌님솿뗄30%ퟳ폒ꆣ[21]펢맺듳탍쪯폍릫쮾욾뷨웤탛뫱뗄놾ꆢ쿈뷸뗄뿆벼뫍맜샭퓚헢킩뗘쟸뾪닉ꆢ쳡솶ꆢ볓릤뫍돶뿚쪯폍ꎬ볈뿉틔싺ퟣ펢맺늻뛏퓶뎤뗄탨쟳ꎬ폖뿉틔쒲좡룟뛮샻죳ꎻ뛾쫇톰쟳죋솦풴ꎬ샻폃맺췢솮볛샍뚯솦ꆣ펢맺뗄샍뚯솦볛룱웕뇩룟폚웤쯼맺볒ꎬ쳘뇰쫇랢햹훐맺볒ꆣ닉폃뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄랽쪽뿉틔샻폃맺췢뗄솮볛샍뚯솦ꎬ뷚풼짺닺돉놾ꎬ듓뛸쳡룟웳튵뗄뺺헹솦ꆣ 18
쯄ꆢ헹뛡뫍뿘훆맺볊쿺쫛쫐뎡쫇펢맺뷸탐뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄훘튪췆뚯솦솿 웳튵뷸탐뛔췢횱뷓춶쫇캪쇋뾪뇙뫍놣뮤맺췢쫐뎡ꆣ햽뫳돵웚펢맺욾뷨퓚뺭볃벼쫵뗈랽쏦뗄뻸뛔폅쫆뗘캻ꎬ폃듳솿솮볛짌욷쟀햼쇋컷얷ꆢ죕놾듳뛮쫐뎡ꆣ60쓪듺뫳뺭볃쪵솦훰늽잿듳웰살뗄컷얷뫍죕놾솦춼뛡믘쪧좥뗄쫐뎡ꎬ쏀맺튲틑뺭돉캪쫀뷧탂뗄뺭볃냔훷ꎬ춬펢맺슢뛏놾볓뷴헹뛡쫐뎡ꆣ떽쇋70쓪듺놾훷틥쫀뷧죽ퟣ뚦솢뗄첬쫆믹놾탎돉틔뫳ꎬ퓚햽뫳뗚튻듎놾훷틥쫀뷧퇏훘뗄뺭볃캣믺뗄듲믷쿂ꎬ룷맺쎳틗놣뮤훷틥죕틦첧춷ꎬ펢맺폫컷얷ꆢ죕놾뗄뺭볃쎳틗햽듋웰뇋럼ꎬ늻뛏짽벶ꆣ퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂펢맺뿧맺릫쮾뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄훘튪쒿뇪횮튻뻍쫇춨맽뻍뗘짨뎧짺닺ꆢ뻍뗘쿺쫛뺡뿉쓜뗘햼쇬뫍뿘훆쫀뷧쫐뎡ꎬ캬뮤ퟔ벺뗄폐샻뗘캻ꆣ 뗚쯄뷚 펢맺몣췢춶듙뷸쳥쾵 튻ꆢ펢맺쎳틗듙뷸쳥훆 펢맺붨솢쇋틔헾뢮믺릹ꆢ헾뢮췢짨믺릹ꆢ닺튵믲탐튵킭믡ꆢ튵럾컱믺릹뗈캪훷룉뗄쎳틗듙뷸쳥훆뿲볜ꆣ헻룶쎳틗듙뷸뗄쳥훆뿲볜뿉틔럖캪죽룶닣듎ꎺ 1ꎮ짌튵퓋ퟷ닣쏦ꆣ퓚헢룶닣쏦짏ꎬ쮽죋늿쏅내헕쫐뎡뺭볃뗄퓋ퟷ랽쪽뾪햹쎳틗듙뷸믮뚯ꆣ놣쿕릫쮾ꆢ틸탐ꆢ룷훖쫐뎡톯믺릹캪톰쟳몣췢랢햹뗄웳튵쳡릩룷훖럾컱ꆣ듳웳튵췹췹틀뾿ퟔ짭뗄쪵솦뷸탐쫐뎡뗷퇐ꆢ튵컱췆맣뗈믮뚯ꆣ짌튵퓋ퟷ닣쏦쫇헻룶쎳틗듙뷸쳥쾵뗄믹뒡닣쏦ꎬ헾뢮늢늻횱뷓닎폫헢룶닣쏦짏뗄믮뚯ꎬ훷튪틀뾿쫐뎡믺훆뗄퓋ퟷ살쪵쿖뛔돶뿚쎳틗폫몣췢춶뗄랢햹듙뷸ꆣ쪵볹횤쏷ꎬ죧맻쎻폐짌튵퓋ퟷ닣쏦뗄헽뎣랢햹ꎬ죎뫎뫪맛뗷뿘뚼붫쫂놶릦냫ꎬ짵훁쇷폚탎쪽ꆣ 2ꎮ쏱볤퓋ퟷ닣쏦ꆣ펢맺릤짌튵솪뫏믡ꎨCBIꎩퟷ캪쮽죋늿쏅뗄ퟜ듺뇭ꎬ 19
퓚릵춨헾뢮폫웳튵뷧뗄탅쾢ꆢ튪쟳벰헾닟랽쏦랢믓ퟅ훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ죧CBI뛔펢맺쎳틗폫릤튵늿뗄쓪뛈믘맋훐뻍쳡돶쇋뛔쎳릤늿릤ퟷ뗄룄뷸틢볻ꆣ룷훖튵탔뗄탐튵ퟩ횯퓚CBI폫헾뢮쯹펪퓬뗄훐뷩ퟩ횯뿕볤훐뾪햹듙뷸폫췆맣믮뚯ꆣ펢훐쎳틗킭믡(CBBC)뻍쫇튻룶쏅듓쫂췆뚯펢맺웳튵뾪햹뛔뮪쎳틗폫춶믮뚯뗄훐뷩ퟩ횯ꆣ쯼퓚펢맺맺쓚쫴폚튻훖뷏캪뛀쳘뗄벴틔맺뇰캪믹뒡뗄쏱볤쎳틗듙뷸ퟩ횯ꎬ퓚펢훐쮫뇟붻쇷랽쏦랢믓쇋벫캪뢻폐돉킧뗄릦쓜ퟷ폃ꆣ펢맺솪냮헾뢮퓚쏱볤닣쏦퓋ퟷ훐뗄즫닊폐훰붥퓶볓뗄쟷쫆ꎬ폐킩ퟩ횯죧펢훐쎳틗킭믡뻍듓헾뢮믱뗃쒳훖돌뛈뗄뷰횧돖ꆣ 3ꎮ헾뢮퓋ퟷ닣쏦ꆣ헾뢮닣쏦냼삨솽룶ퟩ돉늿럖ꎺ튻쫇헾뢮늿쏅ꎬ죧펢맺쎳틗폫릤튵늿(DTI)ꎻ뛾쫇헾뢮췢짨믺릹ꎨ폐쪱튲돆ퟷ헾뢮뗄뫏믯죋ꎩꎬ죧펢룱삼맺볊쎳틗벯췅(BTI)폫돶뿚탅듻떣놣뻖(ECGD)뚼쫴폚헢샠늿쏅ꆣ펢맺쎳틗폫릤튵늿쫇헻룶펢싗죽떺훷맜쎳틗뗄헾뢮늿쏅ꆣ쯼튻랽쏦뢺퓰펢맺쎳틗헾닟뗄훆뚨ꆢ닎폫얷쏋쎳틗헾닟뗄킭뗷ꆢ닎폫WTO첸에믮뚯ꎬ늢뢺퓰솪냮쓚늿쎳틗듙뷸뗄릤ퟷꎻ쇭튻랽쏦춨맽룷훖ퟩ횯쟾뗀ꎬ탎돉쇋튻쳥뮯뗄돶뿚쎳틗폫몣췢춶뗄듙뷸쳥쾵ꆣ펢룱삼맺볊쎳틗벯췅쫇쎳틗폫릤튵늿쿂쫴뗄ꆢ떫뷏캪뛀솢뗄튻룶늿쏅ꎬ듓솥쫴맘쾵짏살뾴ꎬ쯼쫇평쎳릤늿ꆢ췢붻폫솪냮늿(FCO)릲춬펵폐뗄튻룶늿쏅ꆣ뷼쓪살ꎬ평폚솽룶늿릲맜훐듦퓚뗄킭뗷폫킧싊뗈컊쳢ꎬ헢훖릲춬펵폐뗄쒣쪽뾪쪼쇋쿲평튻룶늿훷맜뗄뮯맽돌ꆣ 펢룱삼쎳틗맺볊벯췅ꎨBTIꎩ붨솢폚1999쓪ꎬ쫇헾뢮뢺퓰몣췢쎳틗뾪랢폫듙뷸뗄훷튪늿쏅ꆣꆰ춶펢맺ꆱ(Invest UK)뫍ꆰ펢맺쎳틗믯냩ꆱ(Trade Partners UK)쿂쫴폚BTIꆣ잰헟폚2000쓪5퓂늢죫BTI뫳ꎬ냑BTI뢺퓰뗄튵컱랶캧뷸튻늽췘햹떽폐맘몣췢놾쇷죫뗄튵컱쇬폲ꆣBTI뗄훷튪횰퓰쫇춨맽뛔짌튵뺺헹솦뗄풤닢살냯훺펢맺웳튵쳡룟몣췢쿺쫛폫춶뗄돉릦믺믡ꎬ늢컼틽룟훊솿뗄몣췢횱뷓춶뷸죫펢맺ꆣ퓚쎳틗듙뷸랽쏦ꎬꆰ펢 20
맺쎳틗믯냩ꆱ쫇펢룱삼맺볊쎳틗벯췅뗄튻룶ퟩ돉늿럖ꆣ웤훷튪릤ퟷ쫇쿲뿍뮧쳡릩뛀솢뗄톯틢볻ꎨ냼삨쓇킩뎤웚듓쫂돶뿚틔벰룕룕뷸죫헢튻쇬폲뗄웳튵ꎩꎬ틔뾪랢펢맺뗄뛔췢쎳틗폫몣췢춶ꎬ캬뮤돶뿚짌뗄샻틦ꆣ 펢룱삼맺볊쎳틗벯췅뗄튵컱뿕볤몭룇쇋펢룱삼ꆢ쯕룱삼ꆢ췾뛻쪿뫍놱낮뛻삼뗄쯹폐쟸폲ꆣ퓚쎿룶뗘쟸쓚뚼짨폐쿠펦뗄뗘랽탔믺릹ꎬ뢺퓰룷뗘뗄쿠맘쫂컱ꎬ늢폫펢룱삼쎳틗맺볊벯췅놣돖쏜쟐뗄맘쾵ꆣ 쯕룱삼맺볊뾪랢벯췅(SDI)쫇쯕룱삼웳튵벯췅(SE)폚2001쓪퓚쯕룱삼맺볊쎳틗벯췅(STI)폫뢺퓰틽뗄ꆰ춶쯕룱삼ꆱ(LS)믹뒡짏탂ퟩ붨뗄믺릹ꆣSTIퟷ캪SDI뗄튻룶훘튪ퟩ돉늿럖ꎬ쏅뢺퓰쿲쯕룱삼뗘쟸뗄돶뿚웳튵쳡릩럾컱ꎬ춬쪱폫펢룱삼맺볊쎳틗벯췅놣돖ퟅ뷏캪쏜쟐뗄튵컱맘쾵ꆣ헢킩헾뢮믺릹폫쯕룱삼쏱볤웳튵벰펢맺웤쯻쟸폲뗄헾뢮믺릹벰탐튵킭믡놣돖ퟅ폐킧뗄릵춨폫솼뫃뗄뫏ퟷꆣ 펢맺돶뿚탅듻떣놣쫰ꎨExport Credits Guarantee DepartmentꎬECGDꎩ쫇웳튵탔훊뗄맙랽늿쏅ꎬ웤튵컱평쎳릤늿뫍닆헾늿릲춬맜쾽ꆣ훷튪횰쓜쫇캪펢맺뗄쿮쒿뫍짺닺쇏돶뿚짌쳡릩뻜뢶뿮놣쿕ꎬ캪뛔췢춶쳡릩헾훎럧쿕뗄놣쿕ꎬ캪쮽펪놣쿕릫쮾뛔펢맺쿻럑탍돶뿚뗄놣쿕쳡릩퓙놣쿕ꆣ쒿잰ꎬ[22]ECGD폫125룶맺볒뾪햹쇋튵컱ꎬ훷튪럖늼퓚퇇첫뗘쟸ꆣ 뛾ꆢ탅쾢럾컱 [23]펢맺쎳릤늿쎿쓪냯훺풼 3500룶펢맺웳튵뾪췘몣췢쫐뎡ꆣ펢맺쎳틗춶ퟜ쫰뢺퓰뛔폐돶뿚뫍춶풸췻뗄웳튵쳡릩뿬뷝뫍좨췾뗄탅쾢톯ꎬ샻폃웤짨퓚좫쟲룷맺뗄짌컱믺릹ꎬ냯훺웳튵듲죫떱뗘쫐뎡ꎬ톰쟳믺믡늢돉릦뗘쪵쪩쿮쒿 ꆣ 펢맺헾뢮뺭뎣퓚놾맺뫍몣췢뻙냬튻킩햹샀믡ꎬ늢쎿쓪횧돖6000룶놾[24]맺웳튵돶쾯몣췢햹샀믡뫍퇐쳖믡ꆣ뛔폚웳튵살쮵헢킩쟾뗀럇뎣훘튪ꎬ웳튵뿉틔뷨믺볬퇩쫐뎡ꆢ폫떱뗘붨솢솪쾵늢햹쪾펢맺웳튵쫀뷧튻쇷뗄쮮욽ꆣ 21
듋췢ꎬ펢맺뮹폐뫜뛠춶톯릫쮾뫍쿠맘훐뷩믺릹ꎬ쯻쏇튲춨맽쫐뎡뗷퇐뗈랽쪽캪웳튵쳡릩몣췢춶뗄폐킧톶ꎬ떫쫇헢킩믺릹튻냣닉좡짌튵뮯뗄퓋ퟷ쒣쪽ꎬ웳튵믱좡탅쾢탨튪횧뢶믡풱럑뗈쿠맘럑폃ꆣ 22
뗚죽헂 펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶뛔놾맺돶뿚뗄펰쿬럖컶 ퟔ놾ퟷ캪튻훖짺닺튪쯘뿧풽맺뷧틔살,뛔췢횱뷓춶폫맺볊짌욷쎳틗볤뗄맘쾵뻍돉캪뺭뻃늻쮥뗄퇐뺿뿎쳢ꇵ듳솿뗄FDI쇷돶뛔펢맺뗄뺭볃뷡릹쳘뇰쫇뷸돶뿚돶뿚쎳틗뗄랢햹닺짺쇋뻞듳펰쿬ꇵ캪쇋뷏ힼ좷뗄뫢솿FDI뛔돶뿚쎳틗뗄펰쿬믺훆,놾헂쓢듓뚨탔뫍뚨솿솽랽쏦살뛔웤뷸탐킧펦럖컶ꆣ 튻ꆢ뛔췢횱뷓춶뛔펢맺돶뿚펰쿬뗄뚨탔럖컶 1ꎮ뛔췢횱뷓춶듙뷸쇋펢맺럾컱뗄돶뿚ꆣ펢맺뿧맺릫쮾뗄뛔췢횱뷓춶퓬돉쇋펢맺쒸릫쮾뫍맺췢럖횧믺릹횮볤죋풱뗄욵랱췹살ꎬ튲듙뷸쇋펢맺쒸릫쮾퇐랢뗈룷훖럾컱뗄돶뿚ꆣ뷼쓪살ꎬ펢맺뗄럾컱쎳틗튻횱뒦폚쮳닮ힴ첬ꎬ럾컱뗄돶뿚랢햹쪮럖톸쯙ꎬ펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶뛔럾컱돶뿚뗄췆뚯ퟷ폃쫇웤훐뗄튻룶훘튪풭틲ꆣ 2ꎮ20쫀볍90쓪듺틔잰ꎬ평폚룷훷좨맺볒뗄맘쮰폫럇맘쮰뇚생뇈뷏룟ꎬ짺닺뗄맺볊뮯돌뛈튲늻쫇뫜룟ꎬ틲듋펢맺뿧맺릫쮾뗄뛔췢횱뷓춶훷튪틔쮮욽횱뷓춶캪훷ꎬ벴훷튪쫇쫐뎡톰쟳탍뗄ꎬ헢훖춶뛔펢맺훆돉욷돶뿚뗄쳦듺킧펦뇈뷏듳ꆣ90쓪듺틔뫳ꎬ펢맺뗄뛔췢횱뷓춶풽살풽뻟폐뒹횱탍뗄쳘헷ꎬ틲듋뛔췢쎳틗뗄쳦듺킧펦폐쯹복죵ꎬ뛸뒴퓬킧펦폐쯹쳡룟ꆣ 3ꎮ듓쫂뺭쿺엺랢뗄맺췢럖횧믺릹벫듳뗘듙뷸쇋펢맺뗄돶뿚ꆣ1998쓪ꎬ펢맺뿧맺릫쮾듓쫂엺랢뗄맺췢럖횧믺릹뗄닺솿퓶뎤횻햼떽쇋쯹폐닺솿퓶[23]뎤뗄%ꎬ뛸쯼쏇뗄쿺쫛뛮좴햼떽쇋쯹폐럖횧믺릹ퟜ쿺쫛뛮뗄%ꆣ쪵볊짏쯼쏇늢늻듓쫂짺닺믮뚯ꎬ쯹캽뗄닺솿퓶뎤횻늻맽쫇쯼쏇뷸탐뗄듙쿺믮뚯믲헟쳡릩쫛뫳럾컱쯹뒴퓬뗄퓶볓횵ꆣ뛔펢맺뿧맺릫쮾살쮵ꎬ쯻쏇ퟜ뗄쿺쫛퓶볓횵뫍짺닺퓶볓횵횮볤폐튻룶뇈뷏듳뗄닮뛮ꎬ헢룶닮뛮쪵볊짏뻍쫇헢킩럖횧믺릹캪펢맺돶뿚ퟶ돶뗄릱쿗ꆣ 4ꎮ췢냼믮뚯벫듳뗄듙뷸쇋펢맺훐볤닺욷뗄돶뿚ꆣ췢냼믮뚯훷튪폫훆퓬튵 23
늿쏅솪쾵퓚튻웰뗄ꆣ평폚훆퓬튵늿쏅퓚펢맺뛔췢춶훐햼폐훘튪뗘캻ꎬ틲듋췢냼뛔펢맺훐볤닺욷돶뿚뗄삭뚯ퟷ폃뻍쪮럖쿔훸ꆣ퓧퓚1994쓪ꎬ펢맺맺췢럖횧믺릹훐볤닺욷돶뿚뛮햼ퟜ쿺쫛뛮뗄뇈샽뻍듯떽쇋12%ꆣ쯦ퟅ펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶[26]늻뛏쿲뒹횱탍랽쿲랢햹ꎬ헢룶뇈샽튲늻뛏짏짽ꎬ2000쓪헢룶뇈샽캪20%ꆣ 뛾ꆢ뛔췢횱뷓춶뛔펢맺돶뿚펰쿬뗄뚨솿럖컶 퓚짏쏦컒쏇듓뚨탔뗄뷇뛈뛔펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶뛔웤돶뿚뗄펰쿬뷸탐쇋럖컶ꎬ쓇쎴ꎬ펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶뛔펢맺돶뿚쎳틗뗄펰쿬떽뗗죧뫎쓘ꎿ쿂쏦컒쏇붫닉폃믘맩럖컶뛔헢룶컊쳢ퟷ튻룶뚨솿럖컶ꆣ 퓚헢샯컒쏇닉폃1991쓪떽2006쓪뗄쿠맘쫽뻝ퟷ캪퇹놾ꎨ볻뇭3-1ꎩꎬ펦폃Excel죭볾뷸탐볆쯣ꎬ톡좡FDI폫EXꆢEXGꆢEXS럖뇰붨솢튻풪믘맩랽돌ꆣ 뇭3-1 펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶샛믽뛮폫돶뿚뛮ꎨ떥캻ꎺ틚펢냷ꎩ 쓪럝 뛔췢횱뷓춶샛믽뛮ퟜ돶뿚뛮믵컯쎳틗돶뿚뛮럾컱쎳틗돶뿚뛮ꎨFDIꎩ ꎨEXꎩ (EXG) (EXS) 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 쇏살풴ꎺNational Statistics. United Kingdom Balance of Payments, The Pink Book ꎨ2001ꎬ2007ꎩ[EB/OL]. 24
평믘맩볆쯣뷡맻ꎨ볻뇭3-2ꎩꎬ컒쏇뿉틔뗃돶죽룶튻풪믘맩랽돌ꎺ EX = + * FDI EXG = + * FDI EXS = + * FDI 뇭3-2믘맩볆쯣뷡맻뇭룱ꎨ훃탅뛈ꎺ95%ꎩ Coefficients뇪ힼ컳닮t Stat P-value FDI폫EX Intercept -08 X Variable 1 -07 Coefficients뇪ힼ컳닮t Stat P-value FDI폫EXG Intercept -08 X Variable 1 .63E-06 Coefficients뇪ힼ컳닮t Stat P-value FDI폫EXS Intercept -05 X Variable 1 -09 FDI폫EX FDI폫EXG FDI폫EXS 뗷헻뫳뗄쓢뫏폅 뛈ꎨAdjusted R Squareꎩ 짏쫶죽룶랽돌쪽훐ꎬ웤뗷헻뫳뗄쓢뫏폅뛈뚼듳폚ꎬ웤t볬퇩횵뚼뫜듳ꎬ풶뎬맽뗄쇙뷧횵ꎬ쮵쏷헢죽룶랽돌뗄ퟜ쳥쿟탔맘쾵퓚95%뗄쮮욽짏쫇쿔훸돉솢뗄ꎬ뇤솿 FDI ퟷ캪돶뿚뛮뗄뷢쫍뇤솿쫇쿔훸뗄ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ죽룶랽돌뗄튻듎쿮쾵쫽뻹캪헽ꎬ평듋뿉횪쯦ퟅ펢맺뛔췢춶샛볆뛮뗄퓶뎤ꎬ웤돶뿚뛮튲쯦횮퓶뎤ꎬ늢쟒뛔췢횱뷓춶쎿퓶뎤튻틚펢냷ꎬ웤돶뿚ퟜ뛮뻍퓶뎤틚펢냷ꎬ웤훐믵컯돶뿚퓶뎤틚펢냷ꎬ럾컱돶뿚퓶뎤틚펢냷ꆣ평듋뿉볻ꎬퟜ뗄뾴살펢맺뗄뛔췢횱뷓춶퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏듙뷸쇋펢맺뗄돶뿚ꎬ펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶쯹떼훂쎳틗뗄뒴퓬뫍삩듳킧펦듳폚쎳틗뗄쳦듺킧펦ꆣ 25
뗚쯄헂 펢맺뿧맺릫쮾뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄낸샽럖컶 ꆪꆪBP쪯폍릫쮾뗄좫쟲뺭펪햽싔 ퟷ캪쫀뷧뛔췢춶듳맺ꎬ펢맺뿧맺릫쮾폐탭뛠횵뗃웤쯻맺볒뷨본뗄랢햹뺭퇩ꆣ놾헂횼퓚춨맽럖컶펢맺몣췢춶튵컱ퟮ듳뗄뿧맺릫쮾횮튻ꆪꆪBP쪯폍릫쮾뗄좫쟲뺭펪햽싔ꎬ첽쳖펢맺뗄뿧맺릫쮾쫇죧뫎뾪햹뛔췢횱뷓춶믮뚯ꆣ 뗚튻뷚 쒿뇪쫐뎡뗄톡좡 퓚헢튻뷚ꎬ컒쏇틔훐맺듳슽쫐뎡캪샽ꎬ럖컶BP쪯폍릫쮾죧뫎톡좡ퟔ벺뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄쒿뇪쫐뎡ꆣ 튻볒뿧맺릫쮾뷸탐뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄뚯믺춨뎣폐죽뗣ꎺ뗚튻ꎬ믱뗃떱뗘풴ꎻ뗚뛾ꎬ삩듳쿺쫛쫐뎡ꎻ뗚죽ꎬ춨맽럖즢춶살ퟮ킡뮯뺭펪럧쿕ꆣBP쪯폍릫쮾퓚톡좡훐맺듳슽ퟷ캪웤쒿뇪쫐뎡뗄쪱뫲ꎬ튲쫇듓헢죽랽쏦뗄럖컶살돶랢ꆣ 튻ꆢ훐맺쫐뎡뿉틔캪웤듸살돤ퟣ뗄풴 1ꎮퟔ좻풴 뷘훁2002쓪쓪뗗ꎬ컒맺쪯폍샛볆첽쏷뿉닉뒢솿틚뛖ꎬ웤훐쪣폠뿉닉뒢솿틚뛖ꎬ뻓쫀뷧뗚12캻ꆣ쳬좻웸샛볆첽쏷뿉닉뒢솿췲틚솢랽쏗ꎬ웤훐쪣폠뿉닉뒢솿췲틚솢랽쏗ꎬ뻓쫀뷧뗚17캻ꆣ듓ퟜ쳥짏뾴ꎬ컒맺폍웸풴죔폐뫜듳잱솦뿉췚ꆣ뷘훁2002쓪ꎬ컒맺쪯폍듽랢쿖뿉닉풴솿풼캪71틚ꆪꆪ96틚뛖ꎬ욽뻹첽쏷싊%ꎬ웤훐ꎬ뚫늿뗘 26
쟸욽뻹첽쏷싊뎬맽60%ꎬ훐컷늿뗘쟸뫍몣폲뗍폚30%ꎬ뻹뗍폚73%뗄쫀뷧욽뻹첽쏷싊ꎺ쳬좻웸듽랢쿖뿉닉풴솿췲틚ꆪꆪ췲틚솢랽쏗ꎬ욽[27]뻹첽쏷싊%ꎬ풶풶뗍폚%뗄쫀뷧욽뻹첽쏷싊ꆣ평듋뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ컒맺폍웸풴첽쏷싊뷏뗍ꎬ헻쳥짏뒦폚뾱첽뗄퓧훐웚뷗뛎ꆣ 2ꎮ죋솦풴 훐맺뻟폐듳솿볛룱쿠뛔뗍솮뗄죋솦돉놾ꎬ폐샻폚붵뗍닺욷돉놾ꎬ컼틽쇋듳솿뿧맺릫쮾퓚훐맺뷸탐횱뷓춶ꎬ뻍뗘짺닺뫍볓릤ꆣ 뛾ꆢ훐맺뻟폐맣삫쟒잱솦뻞듳뗄쿺쫛쫐뎡 2006쓪훐맺쪯폍쿻럑듯틚뛖ꎬ틑짭폚쫀뷧쪯폍쿻럑듳맺탐쇐ꆣ훐맺붫볌쏀맺횮뫳돉캪쫀뷧짏뗚뛾듳쪯폍쿻럑맺ꎬ뫍볌쏀맺뫍죕놾횮뫳뗄쫀뷧뗚죽듳쪯폍뷸뿚맺ꆣ뷱뫳5훁10쓪볤ꎬ훐맺풭폍쿻럑솿쓪뻹퓶뎤싊붫듯떽4ꎥퟳ폒ꎬ2010쓪훐맺뗄쪯폍ퟜ탨쟳솿붫듯떽틚뛖ꆪꆪ틚뛖ꎬ뛸떽2020쓪훐맺돉욷폍탨쟳솿붫캪2000쓪뗄놶ꎨ풼5틚뛖ꎩꆣ훐맺쒿잰뗄쓜풴쿻럑뷡릹훐ꎬ좼쎺햼2/3ꎬ쪯폍쳬좻웸헽퓚톸쯙쳮늹좼쎺[28]쿻뫄쿠뛔쿂붵뗄쫐뎡ꆣ 죽ꆢ훐맺쫐뎡뿉틔럖즢웤좫쟲뺭펪럧쿕 뛾쪮쓪뗄량쯙랢햹ꎬ쪹훐맺돉캪듸뚯좫쟲뺭볃퓶뎤뗄폖튻룶훘튪뗄퓶뎤뗣ꆣ쳘뇰쫇뷼쪮쓪살ꎬ훐맺뺭볃틔쎿쓪8%ꆪꆪ10%뗄쯙뛈욽컈뛸뿬쯙뗄퓶뎤ꎬ쏦뛔랢듯맺볒뺭볃퓶뎤뮺싽뗄첬쫆ꎬ훐맺쫐뎡쫇BP쪯폍릫쮾좫쟲랢햹햽싔훐뗄훘훐횮훘ꎬ쫇삭뚯웤쿺쫛튵벨뗄탂뗄춻웆뿚ꆣ 뗚뛾뷚 뺺헹폅쫆폫쇓쫆뗄SWOT럖컶 SWOT럖컶벴잿죵믺캣ퟛ뫏럖컶램ꎬ쫇튻훖웳튵뺺헹첬쫆럖컶랽램ꎬ쫇쫐뎡펪쿺뗄믹뒡럖컶랽램횮튻ꎬ춨맽움볛웳튵뗄폅쫆(Strengths)ꆢ쇓쫆(Weaknesses)ꆢ뺺헹쫐뎡짏뗄믺믡(Opportunities)뫍췾킲(Threats)ꎬ 27
폃틔퓚훆뚨웳튵뗄랢햹햽싔잰뛔웳튵뷸탐짮죫좫쏦뗄럖컶틔벰뺺헹폅쫆뗄뚨캻ꆣ 뇭4-1ꎺBP쪯폍릫쮾뗄SWOT럖컶 폅쫆ꎨStrengthsꎩ 쇓쫆ꎨWeaknessꎩ 횧엤탔뗄쫐뎡뗘캻 쪯폍뒢솿뗄쿂붵 뒹횱튻쳥뮯뗄뺭펪쒣쪽 떥캻풱릤쫕죫릱쿗뷏뗍 쫕죫뛠퇹뮯 뺺헹쫐뎡짏뗄믺믡ꎨOpportunitiesꎩ 뺺헹쫐뎡짏뗄췾킲ꎨThreatsꎩ 뛔LNGꎨ튺뮯쳬좻웸ꎩ탨쟳뗄퓶뎤 훐맺쫐뎡뛔뺫솶폍뫍쪯뮯닺욷탨쟳뗄늻놱몣ꎨNorth Seaꎩ풴놥뫍 뛏퓶뎤 튻킩풭폍짺닺뗘쟸뻖쫆뗄늻컈뚨탔 뛔몽뿕좼쇏탨쟳뗄퓶뎤 뮷뺳놣뮤맦퓲 폍볛짏짽 튻ꆢ폅쫆ꎨStrengthsꎩ 1ꎮ횧엤탔뗄쫐뎡뗘캻 룹뻝웤쫐뎡놾뗄햼폐솿ꎬ펢맺BP쪯폍릫쮾쫇쫀뷧뗚뛾듳쪯폍뫍쳬좻웸릫쮾ꎬ웤튵컱뫡뿧100뛠룶맺볒ꎬ쎿쳬춨맽28500룶럾컱햾캪좫쟲룷뗘뎬맽1300췲폃뮧쳡릩럾컱ꆣ룃릫쮾퓚26룶맺볒펵폐19룶솶폍뎧ꎬ늢붨솢쇋튻룶잿폐솦뗄욷없탎쿳ꆣ룃릫쮾뗄쫐뎡횧엤탔뗘캻뢳폨웤퓚좫쟲쪯폍탐튵잿듳뗄뚨볛쓜솦ꆣ 2ꎮ뒹횱튻쳥뮯뗄뺭펪쒣쪽 BP닉폃뗄쫇냼삨짏폎뫍쿂폎좫늿짺닺튵컱뗄뒹횱튻쳥뮯럖릤뺭펪쒣쪽ꆣ룃릫쮾뗄훷펪튵컱냼삨죽늿럖ꎺ뾱첽뫍짺닺ꆢ솶폍폫쿺쫛벰쳬좻웸ꆢ뗧솦뫍뿉퓙짺풴ꆣ룃릫쮾뗄뒹횱ퟛ뫏튵컱폅쫆뢳폨웤쿠맘뗄퓋탐킧싊ꎬ늢뿘훆쇋헻룶짺닺볛횵솴ꎬ살짺닺뒦폚헻룶볛횵솴쳵짏늻춬뷗뛎뗄닺욷ꆣ룃릫쮾뗄뒹횱튻쳥뮯튵컱룸쯼듸살쇋퓚좫쟲쫐뎡짏쿔훸뗄뺺헹폅쫆ꆣ 28
3ꎮ쫕죫뛠퇹뮯 룃릫쮾틑뺭뇩늼100뛠룶맺볒뫍뗘쟸뗄훷튪쓜풴쫐뎡ꎬ죧쏀맺ꎬ훐뚫뫍훐맺뗈ꎬ헢캪웤듸살뛠풪뮯뗄튵컱쫕죫ꎬ쪹웤늻맽럖틀삵폚죎뫎튻룶쫐뎡ꆣ퓚2006쓪ꎬ쏀맺ꆪꆪ룃릫쮾ퟮ듳뗄뗘폲쫐뎡햼웤쫕죫뗄%ꎬ뛸펢맺ꆢ웤쯻얷훞뗘쟸뫍쫀뷧웤쯻뗘쟸럖뇰햼%ꆢ%뫍%ꆣ룃릫쮾펵폐뗄엓듳뗄쿻럑좺쳥뫍맣랺뗄쫕죫살풴ꎬ복짙쇋쫐뎡늨뚯듸살뗄펰[29]쿬ꎬ늢쳡릩쇋닆컱컈뚨ꆣ 뛾ꆢ쇓쫆ꎨWeaknessꎩ 1ꎮ쪯폍뒢솿뗄쿂붵 퓚맽좥튻킩쓪살ꎬBP뗄풭폍뫍쳬좻웸뒢솿튻횱뒦폚쿂붵뗄쟷쫆ꆣ퓚릫쮾뗄룷룶ퟓ릫쮾틑첽쏷뗄풭폍뒢솿듓2004쓪뗄틚춰쿂붵떽쇋2006쓪뗄틚춰ꎻ쳬좻웸뒢솿튲듓2004쓪뗄틚춰쿂붵떽쇋2005쓪뗄틚춰ꆣ헢훖뒢님쳦듺뇈싊ꎨReserves Replacement Ratio, RRRꎩ뗄쿂붵쪹룃릫쮾퓚좫쟲뗄쪯폍뫍쳬좻웸뒢놸뗘캻뷸튻늽쿂붵ꆣBPퟓ릫쮾뗄RRR퓚2004쓪캪78%ꎬ떫퓚2006쓪좴횻폐34%ꆣ쿂붵뗄RRR캪릫쮾뗄[30]뺭펪샻죳싊듸살쇋뢺쏦펰쿬ꆣ 2ꎮ떥캻풱릤쫕죫릱쿗뷏뗍 2006쓪ꎬ룃릫쮾ퟜ쫕죫캪틚쏀풪ꎬퟜ풱릤쫽캪97000죋ꎬ욽뻹떥캻풱릤뒴퓬쫕죫270췲쏀풪ꆣ퓚춬튻쓪ꎬ웤훷튪뺺헹뛔쫖뾵럆뫍낣뿋즭쏀쪯폍릫쮾쎿떥캻풱릤쫕죫릱쿗럖뇰캪470췲쏀풪뫍450췲쏀풪ꆣ헢훖뷏뗍뗄떥캻풱릤쫕죫릱쿗횵뇭쏷웤짺닺싊뫍퓋탐킧싊쏷쿔뗍폚웤뺺[31] 헹뛔쫖ꆣ 29
죽ꆢ뺺헹쫐뎡짏뗄믺믡ꎨOpportunitiesꎩ 1ꎮ뛔LNGꎨ튺뮯쳬좻웸ꎩ탨쟳뗄퓶뎤 쫐뎡짏뛔튺뮯쳬좻웸뗄룟탨쟳뫍룟좼폍볛룱풤볆붫쿔훸삭뚯뛔쳬좻웸탨쟳뗄늻뛏퓶뎤ꆣ듓2002쓪떽2025쓪ꎬ좫쟲쳬좻웸쿻럑솿붫퓶볓70%ꎬ퓚2025쓪듯떽156췲틚솢랽펢돟ꆣ듓2005쓪떽2010쓪ꎬ쳬좻웸탨쟳솿[32]붫쎿냫쓪퓶볓2%떽3%ꆣ퓚퇇첫뗘쟸ꆢ놱쏀뫍얷훞ꎬBP쪯폍릫쮾뚼펵폐탛뫱뗄쳬좻웸짺닺튵컱ꎬ늢헽퓚삩듳웤튺뮯쳬좻웸튵컱뷸돶뿚싫춷ꆣ폐쇋잿듳뗄쫐뎡뗘캻ꎬ릫쮾뗄튵컱훘뗣붫벯훐폚쳬좻웸뫍튺뮯쪯폍웸ꎬ틔뷸뻼죕틦랢햹뗄좫쟲튺뮯쳬좻웸쫐뎡ꆣ 2ꎮ훐맺쫐뎡뛔뺫솶폍뫍쪯뮯닺욷탨쟳뗄늻뛏퓶뎤 훐맺뺫솶폍뗄쓜솦퓚늻뛏짏짽ꎬ풤볆붫듓2005쓪뗄580췲춰쎿쓪듯떽2030쓪뗄1460췲춰쎿쳬ꆣ뺡맜죧듋ꎬ평폚캴살쫽쪮쓪쓚훐맺뛔뺫솶쪯폍닺욷뫍쪯폍뮯릤닺욷뗄탨쟳듳럹뛈퓶볓ꆣ캴살뗄뛾죽쪮쓪쓚ꎬ훐맺죔붫놣돖쪯폍닺욷뺻뷸뿚맺뗄뗘캻ꆣ퓚2005훁2010쓪볤ꎬ뛔틒쾩뗄탨쟳풤닢쎿쓪퓶뎤붫뎬맽12%ꎬ뇻쾩쓪퓶뎤9%ꆣ웤쯻룟럖ퟓ닄쇏죧뻛틒쾩ꎬ쎿쓪퓶[33]뎤붫듯떽7%ꆣ쒿잰BP쪯폍릫쮾틑뺭퓚훐맺폐쇋튻룶훆퓬믹뗘ꎬ늢뻟놸폅풽뗄뷸뻼죕틦돉뎤뗄쪯뮯쫐뎡뗄믺믡ꆣ 3ꎮ뛔몽뿕좼쇏탨쟳뗄퓶뎤 평폚맺볊뫍맺쓚몽뿕붻춨탨쟳뗄퓶볓ꎬ쯹폐훷튪맺볒뫍뗘쟸뗄몽뿕릫쮾뚼퓚삩듳ퟔ벺뗄량믺쫽솿ꆣ퓚2005쓪ꎬ훐맺몽뿕릫쮾뚩릺쇋60볜늨틴787량믺뫍70볜늨틴737량믺ꎬ뫄뎬맽110틚쏀풪ꆣ룹뻝늨틴릫쮾풤닢ꎬ훐맺퓚캴살20쓪붫탨튪2600볜틔짏탂량믺ꎬ헢붫떼훂뛔몽뿕좼쇏뗄[34]룼듳탨쟳ꆣ2006쓪ꎬ퇇훞첫욽퇳몽뿕릫쮾뗄엧웸좼쇏돉놾퓶볓쇋50%ꆣ쏅짺닺몽뿕좼쇏뫍죳뮬폍뗄BP쪯폍릫쮾몽뿕럖릫쮾ꎬ쫇쫀뷧ퟮ듳뗄몽뿕좼쇏릩펦짌횮튻ꎬ쒿잰쎿쳬쳡릩뗄몽뿕좼쇏뫍죳뮬폍뎬맽췲춰ꎬ 30
뿍뮧뇩늼좫쟲ꆣBP캪쫀뷧짏90뛠룶맺볒뗄뎬맽1200룶믺뎡쳡릩닺욷뫍[35]럾컱ꎬ늢퓚웤훐튻냫틔짏뗄맺볒짨폐뗘랽냬쫂뒦ꆣ샻폃웤맣랺뗄췸싧뫍쿖폐뗄뿍뮧믹뒡ꎬ룃릫쮾쓜볌탸듓늻뛏퓶볓뗄뛔몽뿕좼쇏뗄탨쟳훐믱좡룼듳쫕틦ꆣ 4ꎮ폍볛짏짽 쫀뷧풭폍볛룱퓚2006쓪뗗뫍2007쓪뗗럖뇰캪쏀풪/춰뫍[36]쏀풪/춰ꎬ쿠뇈폚잰튻쓪뗄볛룱럖뇰짏헇쇋%뫍%ꆣ쪯폍짺닺뫍쿺쫛쫇BP쪯폍릫쮾뗄뫋탄튵컱ꆣ본폚쯼뗄듳늿럖쫕죫살ퟔ폚쪯폍벰웤퇜짺닺욷뗄쿺쫛ꎬ쪯폍볛룱뗄짏헇뿉틔쳡룟BP쪯폍릫쮾뗄훷펪튵컱쫕죫ꆣ 쯄ꆢ뺺헹쫐뎡짏뗄췾킲ꎨThreatsꎩ 1ꎮ놱몣풴놥뫍 룃릫쮾펵폐뗄뷼몣뾱첽믮뚯뫜뛠뚼벯훐퓚놱몣뗘쟸ꆣ퓚맽좥뗄벸쪮쓪ꎬBP퓚놱몣뗄뾱첽릤ퟷ럇뎣쏜벯ꎬ놱몣뗄쪯폍뒢놸틑뺭돶쿖놥뫍뗄쟷쫆ꎬ튻킩폍뺮틑뺭룉뿝ꆣ평폚릫쮾퓚쫀뷧웤쯻뗘쟸뗄뾱첽믮뚯뮹쿠뛔폐쿞ꎬ늢쟒춶돉놾뷏룟ꎬ놱몣뗄풴뗄놥뫍뛔릫쮾캴살쫕죫쫇튻룶뻞듳뗄쳴햽ꆣ 2ꎮ튻킩풭폍짺닺뗘쟸뻖쫆뗄늻컈뚨탔 BP퓚26룶맺볒짨폐뾱첽뫍짺닺늿쏅ꎬ웤훐탭뛠맺볒ꎬ냼삨럇훞ꆢ훐[37]뚫ꆢ훐쓏쏀훞헾훎짏뚼뫜늻컈뚨ꆣ쯤좻BP퓚헢킩맺볒뺭펪쇋뫜뎤쪱볤ꎬ늢뛔떱뗘뮷뺳폐쿠떱돌뛈뗄쇋뷢ꎬ뮹쫇폐튻킩헾훎럧쿕쫇컞램풤닢뫍뿘훆뗄ꆣ헢킩헾훎럧쿕뿉쓜믡퇏훘쯰몦웤뺭펪짺닺믮뚯ꆣ 3ꎮ뮷뺳놣뮤맦퓲 쯦ퟅ좫쟲웸뫲뇤얯뗄컊쳢죕틦퇏훘ꎬ뮷뺳램맦뇤뗃풽살풽퇏룱ꆣ웤훐튻룶훘튪랢햹뻍쫇뺩뚼틩뚨쫩뗄틽죫ꆣ룃틩뚨쫩튪쟳릤튵뮯맺볒퓚2008[38]쓪훁2012쓪욽뻹쎿쓪복짙컂쫒웸쳥업럅솿%ꆣBP퓚뮷뺳놣뮤컊쳢짏 31
뇈뷏놡죵ꎬ탂뗄뮷뺳램맦뗄틽죫믡캪웳튵듸쇋탂뗄뢺햮믲퓶볓웤퓋펪돉놾ꎬ헢킩뚼붫떼훂웤펯샻쮮욽뗄쿂붵ꆣ 뗚죽뷚 죚돉놾뫋쯣 뷸탐뿧맺춶뺭펪뗄뗚튻룶뫋탄컊쳢뻍쫇탨튪횪뗀뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄쫕틦쫇듳폚ꆢ뗈폚뮹쫇킡폚퓚놾맺쫐뎡뷸탐뗄춬뗈쟩뿶뗄춶ꆣ튪믘듰헢룶컊쳢ꎬ컒쏇뻍탨튪쿈볆쯣돶헢쿮뿧맺춶뗄죚돉놾ꎬ헢튲쫇맺볊닆컱맜샭훐ퟮ뢴퓓뗄컊쳢횮튻ꆣ퓚놾뷚뾪쪼췹뫳뗄벸뷚샯쏦ꎬ컒쏇틔2000쓪BP쪯폍릫쮾뗄닆컱쫽뻝캪믹뗣ꎬ쳖싛웤좫쟲춶튵컱뗄죚돉놾틔벰쫕틦ힴ뿶ꆣ 튻ꆢ돉놾뫋쯣뗄믹놾랽램 컒쏇닉폃볓좨욽뻹놾돉놾ꎨWeighted Average Cost of Capital, WACCꎩ살뫋쯣웳튵뗄죚돉놾ꆣ볓좨욽뻹놾돉놾퓚뷰죚믮뚯훐폃살뫢솿튻룶릫쮾뗄놾돉놾ꆣ틲캪죚돉놾놻뾴ퟷ쫇튻룶싟벭짏뗄볛룱뇪잩ꎬ쯼맽좥놻뫜뛠릫쮾폃ퟷ튻룶죚쿮쒿뗄쳹쿖싊ꆣ 릫쮾훷튪춨맽솽룶살풴믱좡뷰: 막놾뫍햮컱ꆣ틲듋튻룶릫쮾뗄놾뷡릹훷튪냼몬죽룶돉럖: 폅쿈막ꎬ웕춨막뫍햮컱(뎣볻뗄폐햮좯뫍웚욱)ꆣ볓좨욽뻹놾돉놾뾼싇놾뷡릹뗄쎿룶돉럖뗄쿠뛔좨훘늢쳥쿖돶룃릫쮾뗄탂닺뗄풤웚돉놾ꆣ WACC뗄볆쯣릫쪽캪ꎺ WACC=w×k+w×k×(1−t)+w×k eeddcpp웤훐ꎬWeꎽE/KꎬWd=D/K, Wp=P/K, We+Wd+Wp=1ꎬK=E+D+P 32
뇭4-2ꎺ룷럻뫅뗄몬틥쇐뇭 럻뫅 몬틥 떥캻 WACC 볓좨욽뻹놾돉놾%쯹탨뗄믲풤웚뗄막놾믘놨싊ꎬ믲헟웕춨막막놾돉놾 Ke % ꎨCost of Equity Capitalꎩ 쯹탨뗄믲풤웚뗄듻뿮믘놨싊ꎬ믲헟듻뿮돉놾 Kd % ꎨCost of Debt Capitalꎩ 쯹탨뗄믲풤웚뗄폅쿈막믘놨싊ꎬ믲헟폅쿈막막놾돉놾Kp % ꎨCost of Preferred Stock Capitalꎩ tc 릫쮾쮰싊%E ퟜ웕춨막막놾 믵뇒 D ퟜ햮컱 믵뇒 P ퟜ폅쿈막막놾 믵뇒 K 탂쿮쒿뗄ퟜ춶뛮ꎨퟜ닺ꎩ 믵뇒 뛾ꆢ웕춨막막놾돉놾ꎨCost of Equity Capitalꎩ 볆쯣막놾돉놾ꎬ컒쏇탨튪폃떽놾닺뚨볛뗄CAPM쒣탍ꆣ 놾닺뚨볛쒣탍ꎨCapital Asset Pricing Model 볲돆CAPMꎩ쫇평쏀맺톧헟췾솮ꆤ쿄웕ꎨWilliam Sharpeꎩꆢ쇖쳘뛻ꎨJohn Lintnerꎩꆢ쳘샯억ꎨJack Treynorꎩ뫍쒪탁ꎨJan Mossinꎩ뗈죋퓚쿖듺춶ퟩ뫏샭싛뗄믹뒡짏랢햹웰살뗄ꎬ쫇쿖듺뷰죚쫐뎡볛룱샭싛뗄횧훹ꎬ맣랺펦폃폚춶뻶닟뫍릫쮾샭닆쇬폲ꆣ 룹뻝놾닺뚨볛쒣탍ꎬ뛔폚튻룶룸뚨뗄닺iꎬ쯼뗄웚췻쫕틦싊뫍쫐뎡춶ퟩ뫏뗄웚췻쫕틦싊횮볤뗄맘쾵뿉틔뇭쪾캪ꎺ E(r)=r+β[E(r)−r]ifimmf Cov(r,r)imβ= imVar(r)m 33
웤훐ꎺ E(ri)쫇닺i 뗄웚췻쫕틦싊 rf쫇컞럧쿕쫕틦싊 ꛂimꎨBetaꎩ쫇닺i 뗄쾵춳럧쿕ꎬ E(rm)쫇쫐뎡춶ퟩ뫏m뗄웚췻쫕틦싊 [E(rm) − rf]쫇쫐뎡럧쿕틧볛ꎨMarket Risk Premiumꎩꎬ벴쫐뎡춶ퟩ뫏뗄웚췻쫕틦싊폫컞럧쿕쫕틦싊횮닮 CAPM쒣탍쫇붨솢퓚튻쾵쇐볙짨뗄믹뒡짏뗄ꎬ웤훐훷튪냼삨ꎺ 쫐뎡뗄탅쾢쫇췪좫돤럖뗄뛔돆뗄ꎻ 뷰죚쫐뎡쫇췪좫폐킧뗄ꎻ 샭탔풤웚돉솢ꎻ 춶헟쫴폚럧쿕퇡뛱헟ꆣ 1ꎮ뛔beta뗄볆쯣 Beta쏨쫶뗄쫇닺뗄쾵춳럧쿕ꆣBP릫쮾뗄짏쫐막욱놻춳볆뷸죫쇋FTSE100막욱횸쫽ꎬ퓲beta쏨믦뗄뻍쫇BP막욱볛룱폫FTSE100막욱횸쫽횮볤뗄솪뚯맘쾵ꎬ벴막욱횸쫽쎿뇤뚯1%ꎬ막욱볛룱뇤뚯뗄냙럖뇈ꆣ 죧잰쯹쫶ꎬ컒쏇쫇틔2000쓪캪믹뗣ꎬ쯹틔퓚헢샯컒쏇쿈쿂퓘BP쪯폍릫쮾막욱뫍FTSE100횸쫽듓1989쓪훁1999쓪릲쪮쓪뗄죕쫕엌볛룱ꎬ좻뫳뷨훺Excel쫽뻝뇭볆쯣돶뛾헟헢쪮쓪살럖뇰쎿쳬뗄죕쫕틦싊ꆣퟮ뫳룹뻝쫽뻝뇭훐뗄ꆰslopeꆱ 릫쪽ꎬ뻍뿉틔뫜죝틗뗃돶BP쪯폍릫쮾막욱뗄beta횵캪ꆣ 2ꎮ볆쯣rf뫍E(rm) 볆쯣릫쪽훐뗄rf캪컞럧쿕쫕틦싊ꎬ평폚쫇퓚좫쟲쫐뎡짏뷸탐춶ꎬ쯹틔컒쏇좡웤뗈폚쏀맺쪮쓪웚헾뢮햮좯뗄쓪샻싊%ꆣE(rm)좡FTSE100듓1989훁1999쪮쓪쓚뗄쓪쫕틦싊욽뻹횵%ꆣ 34
뇭4-3ꎺ FTSE100횸쫽벰쓪쫕틦싊ꎨ1989ꆪꆪ1999ꎩ 쓪럝 FTSE100횸쫽 쓪쫕틦싊 %1998 % %1996 % %1994 % %1992 % %1990 % 욽뻹횵 % 쇏살풴ꎺ닎볻 떽헢샯ꎬ컒쏇뻍뿉틔볆쯣돶CAPM쒣탍뗄뻟쳥쫽횵ꎺ CAPM = % + *(%%) = % 컒쏇냑CAPM뗄횵ퟷ캪웳튵뗄웕춨막막놾돉놾ꆣ 뛾ꆢ듻뿮돉놾ꎨCost of Debt Capitalꎩ뫍폅쿈막막놾돉놾ꎨCost of Preferred Stock Capitalꎩ 1ꎮ듻뿮돉놾 틽폃2000쓪닆컱놨뇭ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔뾴떽뎤웚듻뿮뛮캪14,772(냙췲쏀풪)ꎬ듻뿮샻싊횧돶캪1,354(냙췲쏀풪)ꎬ쯹틔뿉틔볆쯣돶웤듻뿮샻싊캪ꎺ kd = 1,354/14,772 = % 펢맺2000쓪웳튵쮰싊캪tc=30%ꆣ 떽헢샯컒쏇뿉틔뗃돶ꎬ듻뿮돉놾캪ꎺ 35
kd*(1-tc) = %*(1-30%) = % 2ꎮ폅쿈막막놾돉놾 폅쿈막막놾볆쯣릫쪽ꎺ kp = dividend/preferred stock price dividend:쎿막뫬샻 preferred stock priceꎺ폅쿈막막볛 룹뻝2000닆컱놨뇭ꎬBP퓚헢튻쓪쎻폐웳튵폅쿈막ꎬ쯹틔헢늿럖돉놾캪0ꆣ 죽ꆢ죚돉놾볆쯣 볆쯣떽헢샯ꎬ컒쏇캨튻뮹탨튪횪뗀뗄뻍쫇WACC릫쪽샯웕춨막뫍듻뿮솽늿럖뗄뷰뇈샽ꆣ2000쓪릫쮾뗄뎤웚듻뿮ꎬ웕춨막쿠맘뻟쳥쫽횵럖뇰죧쿂ꎺ 뎤웚듻뿮Dꎺ14,772ꎨ냙췲쏀풪ꎩ 웕춨막막쫽ꎺ21,638ꎨ냙췲ꎩ 웕춨막막볛ꎺꎨ쏀풪ꎩ 틲듋ꎬ뿉틔볆쯣돶ꎺ E = *21,638 = 817,ꎨ냙췲쏀풪ꎩ K = E+D = 817,+14,772 = 832, we = E/(E+D) = % wd = 1-ke = % ퟮ뫳ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔뗃돶BP쪯폍릫쮾2000쓪뗄죚뗄볓좨욽뻹놾돉놾캪ꎺ WACC=w×k+w×k×(1−t)+w×k eeddcpp= %*% + %*% = % 36
뗚쯄뷚 듓춶뺻쿖횵폫쓚늿놨돪싊살풤닢춶뗄캴살쫕틦 퓚짏튻뷚컒쏇볆쯣뗃돶쇋웳튵죚뗄볓좨욽뻹놾돉놾ꎬ퓚헢튻뷚ꎬ컒쏇붫폃듋돉놾살볆쯣춶뺻쿖횵뫍쓚늿쫕틦싊ꎬ듓뛸뻶뚨쫇럱펦룃뷸탐헢쿮춶랽낸ꆣ 튻ꆢ춶뺻쿖횵 듋랽램쫇붫춶뗄캴살쿖뷰쇷솿ꎬ좫늿헛쿖돉춶돵쪼죕뗄볛횵ꎬ돆캪룃춶뗄뺻쿖뷰쇷솿ꎬ믲돆캪뺻쿖횵 (Net Present Value)ꆣ볙짨춶뗄뺻쿖횵캪헽쫽ꎬ듺뇭룃춶뗄뷡맻뿉틔퓶볓웳튵뗄볛횵ꎻ쿠랴뗄ꎬ죧맻춶움맀뗄뺻쿖횵캪뢺쫽ꎬ듺뇭듋춶믡복짙웳튵뗄볛횵ꎬ늻펦룃뷓쫜ꆣ떱좻뺻쿖횵캪헽쫽죔늻듺뇭웳튵펦룃뷓쫜듋춶붨틩ꎬ틲캪믲탭듦퓚웤쯻뺻쿖횵룼룟뗄춶믺믡ꆣ퓚뛠쿮춶랽낸늢돂쪱ꎬ웳튵펦톡퓱뺻쿖횵ퟮ룟뗄춶낸ꆣ뺻쿖횵쫇뛠쫽웳튵뷸탐춶움맀쪱뗄틀뻝ꎬ틲캪쯼붫춶웚볤뗄쯹폐쿖뷰쇷솿쓉죫뾼싇ꎬ늢쟒틔헛쿖뫳뗄뷰뛮ퟶ볆쯣ꆣ NPV뗄볆쯣릫쪽죧쿂ꎺ CFCFCFCF123n NPV=−I++++"+023n(1+WACC)(1+WACC)(1+WACC)(1+WACC)웤훐ꎺ NPV: 춶쫕틦뗄뺻쿖횵 I: 돵쪼춶 0CF"CFꎺ듓뗚튻웚떽ퟮ뫳튻웚뗄쎿웚쫕죫쿖뷰쇷 1n뇭4-4ꎺBP릫쮾춶쓪쫕죫쿖뷰쇷솿뇭ꎨ2000ꆪꆪ2006ꎩ(떥캻ꎺ냙췲쏀풪) 2000 2001 2002200320042005 2006 쿖뷰쇷 ꎭ36,0919,8499,6496,1878,7129,478 9,162 헛쿖뇈싊 헛쿖횵 -36,0919,1458,3184,9546,4776541 5869 뢽힢ꎺ2000쓪뗄탂퓶춶뛮뗈폚ꎨ떱쓪컞탎닺ꎫ폐탎닺ꎩꎭꎨ1999쓪컞탎닺ꎫ폐탎닺ꎩ 쇏살풴ꎺBP Annual Report and Accounts 2000-2006[EB/OL] 37
NPV=−36,091+9,145+8,318+4,954+6,477+6,541+5,869 =5,213 벴릫쮾퓚2000쓪뗄뛔췢횱뷓춶ꎬ뿉틔퓚2006쓪쫕믘돉놾ꆣ뷘횹2006쓪ꎬNPV듳폚0ꎬ춶뿉틔놻뷓쫜ꆣ 뛾ꆢ쓚늿놨돪싊ꎺ 쇭튻훖춶뗄움맀랽램쫇쓚늿놨돪싊ꎨInternal Rate of Return, IRRꎩꎬ튲뻍쫇헒돶닺잱퓚뗄놨돪싊ꎬ웤풭샭쫇샻폃쓚늿놨돪싊헛쿖ꎬ쪹춶뗄뺻쿖횵잡뫃뗈폚쇣ꆣ쓚늿놨돪싊뗄움맀쪱탨튪폐튻뇈뷏믹ힼꎬ폫헛쿖싊뗄뻶뚨샠쯆ꎬ릫쮾믡쿈짨뚨튻룶믹놾뗄춶놨돪싊ꎬ퓙헫뛔늻춬탔훊뗄춶랽낸뚩솢늻춬뗄럧쿕뗷헻쫽ꎬ솽헟쿠볓뫳돉캪춶놨돪싊뗄쏅볷ꆣ떱춶낸뗄쓚늿놨돪싊듳폫놨돪싊쏅볷쪱ꎬ뇭쪾뿉틔뷓쫜룃춶낸ꆣ뛠쿮춶낸늢돂쪱ꎬ퓲쿈틔쏅볷즸톡뫏룱뗄춶낸ꎬ퓙뷓쓚늿놨돪싊뗄듳킡뻶뚨폅쿈벶ꆣ튻쿮춶랽낸쫇럱놻뷓쫜뗄믹놾튪쟳쫇쓚늿놨돪싊튪듳폚웤볓좨욽뻹놾돉놾ꆣ 믹놾릫쪽캪ꎺ CFCFCFCF123n0=−I++++"+ 023n(1+IRR)(1+IRR)(1+IRR)(1+IRR)룹뻝뇭훐룷웚뗄뺻쿖뷰쇷솿뫍돵쪼춶횵ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔샻폃Excel훐뗄ꆰIRRꆱ볆쯣릫쪽뗃돶헢쿮춶랽낸뗄IRR횵캪%ꆣ평폚IRR듳폚WACC횵%ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔뷓쫜헢쿮춶랽낸ꆣ퓚헢샯컒쏇뗃떽쇋뫍볆쯣춶뺻쿖횵튻퇹뗄뷡싛ꆣ 38
뗚컥뷚 춶샻죳뛔릫쮾볛횵뗄믽벫펰쿬 튻ꆢ막샻쳹쿖쒣탍 1ꎮ믹놾몬틥뫍릫쪽ꎺ 막샻쳹쿖쒣탍ꎨDividend Discount ModelꎬDDMꎩ쫇퓋폃쫕죫뗄놾뮯뚨볛랽램살뻶뚨웕춨막쓚퓚볛횵뗄랽램ꆣ내헕쫕죫뗄놾뮯뚨볛랽램ꎬ죎뫎닺뗄쓚퓚볛횵쫇평펵폐닺뗄춶헟퓚캴살쪱웚훐쫕죫뗄쿖뷰쇷내튻뚨쳹쿖싊뫍쪱볤쾵쫽쳹쿖뛸돉ꆣ막샻쳹쿖쒣탍쫇쓚몬볛횵램ퟮ믹놾뗄튻훖ꎬ웤쪵훊뻍쫇붫튻볒릫쮾뗄볛횵뗈폚헢볒릫쮾퓚늻춬쪱웚쿲막뚫엉랢막샻뗄뺻쿖횵뗄ퟜ뫍ꆣ DDM쒣탍뗄믹놾릫쪽캪ꎺ DDDD123nV=+++"+0 23n(1+r)(1+r)(1+r)(1+r)Vꎺ릫쮾닺뗄쓚퓚볛횵ꎨ릫쮾막욱헦쪵볛횵ꎩꎻ 0Dꎺt쪱웚쒩엉랢뗄쿖뷰막쾢ꎻ trꎺ튻뚨럧쿕돌뛈쿂쿖뷰쇷뗄쓚몬쫕틦싊ꎬ튲돆캪쳹쿖싊ꆣ 뇭4-5ꎺ BP쪯폍릫쮾엉랢막샻쏷쾸뇭ꎨ2000ꆪꆪ2006ꎩꎨ떥캻ꎺ뇣쪿ꎩ 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 뗚튻벾뛈 뗚뛾벾뛈 뗚죽벾뛈 뗚쯄벾뛈 뫏볆 쇏살풴ꎺBP Annual Report and Accounts 2000-2006[EB/OL] 39
2ꎮ막샻쳹쾢늻뇤뗄퓶뎤쒣탍ꎺ룪뗇막샻퓶뎤쒣탍 ꎨ1ꎩ쒣탍몬틥틔벰볙짨쳵볾 룪뗇막샻퓶뎤쒣탍폖돆캪ꆰ막샻쳹쾢늻뇤퓶뎤쒣탍ꆱꆢꆰ룪뗇쒣탍(Gordon Model)ꆱꎬ퓚듳뛠쫽샭닆톧뫍춶톧랽쏦뗄뷌닄훐ꎬ룪뗇쒣탍쫇튻룶놻맣랺뷓쫜뫍퓋폃뗄막욱맀볛쒣탍ꎬ룃쒣탍춨맽볆쯣릫쮾풤웚캴살횧뢶룸막뚫뗄막샻쿖횵ꎬ살좷뚨막욱뗄쓚퓚볛횵ꎬ쯼쿠떱폚캴살막샻뗄폀탸쇷죫ꆣ룪뗇막샻퓶뎤쒣탍쫇막쾢쳹쿖쒣탍뗄뗚뛾훖쳘쫢탎쪽ꎬ럖솽훖쟩뿶ꎺ튻쫇늻뇤뗄퓶뎤싊ꎻ쇭튻룶쫇늻뇤뗄퓶뎤횵ꆣ 늻뇤퓶뎤쒣탍폐죽룶볙뚨쳵볾ꎺ뗚튻ꎬ막쾢뗄횧뢶퓚쪱볤짏쫇폀뻃탔뗄ꎻ뗚뛾ꎬ막쾢뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈쫇튻룶뎣쫽ꎻ뗚죽ꎬ쒣탍훐뗄쳹쿖싊듳폚막쾢퓶뎤싊ꆣ 퓚룪뗇쒣탍훐ꎬ탨튪풤닢뗄쫇쿂튻웚막샻벰웤쓪퓶뎤싊ꎬ뛸늻쫇풤볆쎿튻웚뗄막샻ꆣ룹뻝헢룶쒣탍ꎬ릫쮾뗄막샻헾닟믡뛔막욱볛횵닺짺펰쿬ꆣ헢룶쒣탍쪮럖폐폃ꎬ풭틲횮튻뻍쫇쯼쪹춶헟뿉틔좷뚨튻룶늻쫜떱잰막쫐ힴ뿶펰쿬뗄릫쮾뗄뻸뛔볛횵믲ꆰ쓚퓚볛횵ꆱꆣ웤듎ꎬ룪뗇쒣탍뛔캴살뗄막샻ꎨ뛸늻쫇펯폠ꎩ뷸탐볆솿ꎬ맘힢춶헟풤웚뿉틔믱뗃뗄쪵볊쿖뷰쇷솿ꎬ폐훺폚늻춬탐튵뗄웳튵횮볤뷸탐뇈뷏ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ쒣탍뗄쓚죝벰볆쯣 룃쒣탍죏캪ꎬ폃춶헟뗄뇘튪쫕틦싊헛쿖막욱뗄뇘튪쿖뷰뫬샻ꎬ뿉틔볆쯣돶막욱뗄샭싛볛룱ꆣ쯼뷒쪾쇋막욱볛룱ꆢ풤웚믹웚막쾢ꆢ쳹쿖싊뫍막쾢만뚨퓶뎤싊횮볤뗄맘쾵ꎬ폃릫쪽뇭쪾캪ꎺ D(1+g)D01V==0r−gr−g Vꎺ릫쮾닺뗄쓚퓚볛횵ꎨ릫쮾막욱뗄헦쪵볛횵ꎩꎻ 0 40
D,Dꎺ믹웚ꎬ뗚튻웚쎿막막쾢ꎻ 01rꎺ쳹쿖싊ꎬ퓚헢샯뗈폚CAPM뗄횵% gꎺ막쾢쓪퓶뎤싊 =6−1=−1=−1=% 2000좻뫳틔2006쓪ퟷ캪믹웚ꎬ살볆쯣릫쮾닺뗄쓚퓚볛횵ꎺ D(1+g)×(1+%)2006V===뇣쪿=펢냷 2006r−%−%닩뾴BP릫쮾막욱2006쓪쓪뗗뗄샺쪷볛룱뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ2006쓪ퟮ뫳튻룶붻틗죕뗄쫕엌볛룱캪펢냷ꆣ뾼싇떽쒣탍놾짭뗄뻖쿞탔뫍볆쯣뗄컳닮ꎬ쫐뎡볛룱뮹쫇뇈뷏헦쪵뗘랴펦쇋릫쮾놾짭뗄쓚퓚볛횵ꆣ 뛾ꆢ쪣폠쫕틦맀볛쒣탍 1ꎮ쪣폠쫕틦맀볛쒣탍룅쫶 쪣폠쫕틦쒣탍ꎨResidual Income Model, RIMꎩ폖놻돆캪EBO쒣탍ꎬퟮ퓧쫇평낮뗂뮪ꎨEdwardsꎩ뫍놴뛻ꎨBellꎩ폚1961쓪쳡돶살뗄ꎬ떫늢쎻폐틽웰샭싛뷧뛠듳뗄훘쫓ꎬ돁볅쇋뫜뎤튻뛎쪱볤ꎻ1995쓪쏀맺톧헟냂뛻즭ꎨOhlsonꎩ퓚웤컄헂ꆶ좨틦맀볛훐뗄쫕틦ꆢ헋쏦볛횵뫍막샻ꆷ훐뛔헢룶랽램뷸탐쇋쾵춳뗄닻쫶ꎬ붨솢쇋릫쮾좨틦볛횵폫믡볆뇤솿횮볤뗄맘쾵ꎬ쪹룃랽램훘탂뗃떽샭싛뷧뗄훘쫓ꎬ늢돉캪뷼쪮쓪살쏀맺닆컱톧ꆢ믡볆톧뷧ퟮ죈쏅뗄퇐뺿훷쳢횮튻ꆣ 쯹캽쪣폠쫕틦쫇횸릫쮾뗄뺻샻죳폫막뚫쯹튪쟳뗄놨돪횮닮ꆣ쪣폠쫕틦뗄믹놾맛뗣죏캪웳튵횻폐좡쇋뎬맽막뚫튪쟳뗄놨돪뗄뺻샻죳ꎬ닅쯣쫇믱뗃쇋헽뗄쪣폠쫕틦ꎻ죧맻횻쓜믱뗃쿠떱폚막뚫튪쟳뗄놨돪뗄샻죳ꎬ뷶뷶쫇쪵쿖쇋헽뎣쫕틦ꆣ벴RIt+1= NIt+1ꎭr BVtꎬ웤훐RIt+1듺뇭t+1웚뗄쪣 41
폠쫕틦ꎬNIt+1듺뇭t웚뗄웳튵뺻쫕틦ꎬBVt쫇t웚웳튵좨틦뗄헋쏦볛횵ꎬr쫇춶헟튪쟳뗄뇘튪놨돪싊ꆣ쪣폠쫕틦탨튪뷸탐놾돉놾뗄뗷헻듓뛸랴펳믡볆짏캴볓좷죏떫쫂쪵짏듦퓚뗄좨틦놾뗄믺믡돉놾ꆣ 쪣폠쫕틦쒣탍쪹폃릫쮾좨틦뗄헋쏦볛횵뫍풤웚쪣폠쫕틦뗄쿖횵살뇭쪾막욱뗄쓚퓚볛횵ꆣ퓚뾼싇믵뇒쪱볤볛횵틔벰춶헟쯹튪쟳뗄럧쿕놨돪쟩뿶쿂ꎬ붫웳튵풤웚쪣폠쫕틦내헕튻뚨뗄쳹쿖싊뷸탐쳹쿖틔뫳볓짏떱웚좨틦볛횵뻍쫇막욱뗄쓚퓚볛횵ꆣ 헢룶쒣탍닉쓉쇋헛쿖쿖뷰쇷솿쒣탍훐믵뇒뗄쪱볤볛횵ꆢ럧쿕ꆪꆪ쫕틦뛔뗈풭퓲뗄폅뗣ꎬ춬쪱폫뒫춳뗄랽램폖폐늻춬ꎬ늻쫇듓샻죳럖엤뷇뛈돶랢ꎬ뛸쫇듓웳튵뗄볛횵뒴퓬ꎨROEꎩ맛뗣뾼싇컊쳢ꆣ웳튵뗄튻쟐짺닺뺭펪믮뚯뚼쫇캧죆볛횵뒴퓬뷸탐뗄ꎬ웤뷡맻폖믡퓚닆컱놨뇭짏뗃떽ퟮ훕랴펳ꎬ틲듋룼캪쳹쟐뗘랴펳쇋웳튵뗄헦쪵쟩뿶ꆣ 2ꎮRIM쒣탍믹놾볆쯣릫쪽 ∞∞ RIE−rBttt−1V=B+=B+00 ƒ0 ƒtt(1+r)(1+r)t=1t=1 V0ꎺ믹웚뗄닺볛횵ꎻ Bꎺ믹웚릫쮾좨틦뗄헋쏦볛횵ꎻ 0Bꎺt쪱웚릫쮾좨틦뗄풤웚헋쏦볛횵ꎻ trꎺ웕춨막막놾돉놾ꎬ벴춶헟튪쟳뗄뇘튪놨돪싊ꎬ헢샯뗈폚%ꎻ Eꎺt쪱웚뗄쎿막풤웚쫕틦ꎻ tRIꎺt쪱웚뗄쎿막풤웚쪣폠쫕틦ꆣ t 42
쿂쏦컒쏇듓BP쪯폍릫쮾2000쓪훁2006쓪뗄닆컱놨뇭훐쳡좡돶탨튪뗄쿮쒿뫍쫽뻝ꎬ룹뻝쪣폠쫕틦쒣탍살볆쯣BP쪯폍릫쮾퓚2000쓪닺뗄헦쪵볛횵ꆣ 뇭4-6 BP쪯폍릫쮾쪣폠쫕틦쒣탍쫽뻝볆쯣뇭 쿮쒿쏻돆 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 쓪돵막쫽19,38621,63822,43622,39722,17021,821 21,126 ꎨ냙췲ꎩ 쓪돵쯹폐헟64,24879,34785,41486,74490,36598,238 109,855 좨틦ퟜ횵 ꎨ냙췲쏀풪ꎩꎫ 쓪돵쎿막 헋쏦볛횵 ퟜ쇴듦쫕틦7,2453,075 1,4704,5149,36014,982 14,314 ꎨ냙췲쏀풪ꎩ 쓪쒩막쫽21,63822,43622,39722,17021,82121,126 20,028 ꎨ냙췲ꎩ 쓪욽뻹막쫽20,51222,03722,41722,28421,99621,474 20,577 ꎨ냙췲ꎩ ꎫ 쎿막쇴듦 쫕틦 ꎽ 쓪쒩쎿막 헋쏦볛횵 ꎫ 쎿막뺻쫕틦 ꎭ 떥캻웕춨막 돉놾 ꎽ 쪣폠쫕틦 (RI) 뢽힢ꎺ떥캻웕춨막돉놾ꎽ쓪돵쎿막헋쏦볛횵ꇁꎥ 쇏살풴ꎺBP Annual Report and Accounts 2006[EB/OL] 43
본폚2007쓪맺볊폍볛짏헇뎬맽40%ꎬ쟒2008쓪볌탸컈뚨퓶뎤ꎬ쯹틔컒쏇퓚헢샯풤볆2007뫍2008쓪뗄쎿막뺻쫕틦뫍쎿막쇴듦쫕틦럖뇰짏헇30ꎥ뫍20ꎥꎬ퓚2009쓪놣돖퓚컈뚨쮮욽ꆣ 뇭4-7 BP쪯폍릫쮾쪣폠쫕틦쒣탍쫽뻝풤닢뇭ꎨ2007ꎭ2010ꎩ 쿮쒿쏻돆 2007 2008 2009 ꎫ 쓪돵쎿막헋쏦볛횵 ꎫ 쎿막쇴듦쫕틦 ꎽ 쓪쒩쎿막헋쏦볛횵 ꎫ 쎿막뺻쫕틦 ꎭ 떥캻웕춨막돉놾 ꎽ 쪣폠쫕틦ꎨRIꎩ 쇏살풴ꎺBP Annual Report and Accounts 2006[EB/OL] 쿂쏦컒쏇뻍뿉틔볆쯣돶ퟅ퇛폚캴살쪮쓪뗄춶쪱ꎨ2000ꎭ2009ꎩꎬBP쪯폍릫쮾쎿떥캻막욱퓚2000쓪쓪돵뗄헦쪵볛횵ꎺ 10RItV=B+=+=쏀풪 20000 ƒt(1+r)t=11999쓪쓪뗗뗄쫕엌볛쫇쎿막쏀풪ꎬ싔캢킡폚쏀풪ꆣ벴ퟅ퇛폚캴살쪮쓪뗄춶살뾴ꎬBP쪯폍릫쮾뛔폚춶헟뻟폐춶볛횵ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬBP쪯폍릫쮾퓚캴살뻟폐컈뚨쫕틦뗄쿖뷰쇷ꆣ뾼싇떽웤듳늿럖닺뻹캪몣췢닺ꎬBP쪯폍릫쮾뗄몣췢횱뷓춶튵컱뮹쫇뾪햹뗃럇뎣돉릦뗄ꆣ 44
뗚쇹뷚 몣췢쫕틦뗄믣싊럧쿕맜샭 튻ꆢ믣싊럧쿕뗄몬틥틔벰럖샠 믣싊럧쿕쫇횸믣싊늨럹쯹퓬돉뗄럧쿕ꆣ믣싊늨뚯믡펰쿬몣췢쎳틗뫍춶펯뿷ꎬ틠폐늻짙죋쫓믣싊뗄늨럹캪춶믺믱샻뗄믺믡ꆣ룷맺뗄훐퇫틸탐뻹뢺햮뿘훆믣싊뗄늨럹ꆢ좷놣뷰죚쳥쾵뗄컈뚨ꆣ 룹뻝퓚Shapiro쯹훸뗄Multinational Financial Managementꎨ2006ꎩ훐뗄뮮럖ꎬ믣싊럧쿕럖캪죽훖믹놾뗄럧쿕ꎺ뮻쯣럧쿕ꎨTranslation Exposureꎩ폖돆ퟶ믡볆럧쿕ꎨAccounting Exposureꎩꎻ뛸붫뺭볃짏뗄췢믣럧쿕퓙럖캪펪퓋럧쿕ꎨOperation Exposureꎩ뫍붻틗럧쿕ꎨTransaction Exposureꎩꎬ틔쿂헫뛔헢죽훖럧쿕ퟶ룼쏷좷뗄뷢쫍ꆣ 1ꎮ뮻쯣럧쿕ꎨ믡볆럧쿕ꎩꎺ쯹캽뮻쯣럧쿕쫇횸퓚믡볆뮻쪱헋쏦쯹닺짺뗄쯰쪧믲샻뗃ꎬ뮻퇔횮ꎬ뻍쫇횸붫췢맺튵컱훐틔떱뗘믵뇒뇭듯뗄닆컱놨뇭뮻돉놾맺뇒쪱ꎬ틔췢뇒볆볛뗄닺뢺햮틔벰쫕죫횧돶ꎬ퓚뮻뫳붫믡랢짺믣뛒쯰틦ꆣ뮻쯣럧쿕쫇맽좥틑뺭랢짺뗄ꎬ쫴폚닺뢺햮뇭뫍쯰틦뇭헋쏦짏뗄뗷헻ꎬ틲듋뇈뷏늻뻟놸뺭볃틔벰닆컱짏뗄틢틥ꆣ 2ꎮ펪퓋럧쿕ꎺ펪퓋럧쿕쫇뫢솿믵뇒늨뚯뛔릫쮾쿖폐폫캴살뺭볃탔쿖뷰쇷솿펰쿬뗄돌뛈ꎬ튲뻍쫇뛔캴살쫕죫폫돉놾룄뇤뗄돌뛈ꆣ뛸펪퓋럧쿕뗄믣싊쫇횸쪵훊믣싊뗄뇤뚯ꎬ럇쏻틥믣싊ꎻ틲캪떱쏻틥믣싊뇤뚯쪱ꎬ룹뻝릺싲솦욽볛샭싛ꎨPurchasing Power ParityꎬPPPꎩꎬ볛룱튲믡쯦횮뗷헻ꎬ쯹틔쪵훊믣싊닅쫇훷튪펰쿬틲쯘ꆣ 3ꎮ붻틗럧쿕ꎺ붻틗럧쿕횸퓚풼뚨틔췢뇒볆볛돉붻뗄붻틗맽돌훐ꎬ평폚뷡쯣쪱뗄믣싊폫붻틗랢짺쪱벴잩뚩뫏춬쪱뗄믣싊늻춬뛸틽웰쫕틦믲뿷쯰뗄럧쿕ꆣ헢킩럧쿕냼삨ꎺ 45
ꎨ1ꎩ틔벴웚믲퇓웚뢶뿮캪횧뢶쳵볾뗄짌욷믲샍컱뗄뷸돶뿚ꎬ퓚믵컯ힰ퓋뫍샍컱쳡릩뫳ꎬ뛸믵뿮믲샍컱럑폃짐캴쫕뢶잰ꎬ췢믣믣싊뇤뮯쯹랢짺뗄럧쿕ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ틔췢뇒볆볛뗄맺볊탅듻믮뚯ꎬ퓚햮좨햮컱캴쟥뎥잰쯹듦퓚뗄믣싊럧쿕ꆣ샽죧ꎺ쒳쿮쒿뷨죫쫇죕풪ꎬ떽웚맩뮹뗄튲펦쫇죕풪ꎬ뛸룃쿮쒿닺짺킧틦뫳쫕떽뗄쫇쏀풪ꆣ죴쏀풪뛔죕풪믣싊쏍뗸ꎬ룃쿮쒿튪뇈풭볆뮮뛠뮨탭뛠쏀풪ꎬ닅쓜뛒돉죕풪맩뮹놾쾢ꎬ뷡맻퓬돉뿷쯰ꆣ ꎨ3ꎩ쿲췢돯훐뗄믣싊럧쿕ꆣ뷨죫튻훖췢뇒뛸탨튪뮻돉쇭튻훖췢뇒쪹폃ꎬ퓲돯죋붫돐쫜뷨죫믵뇒폫쪹폃믵뇒횮볤믣싊뇤뚯뗄럧쿕ꆣ ꎨ4ꎩ듽싄탐뗄풶웚췢믣뫏춬ꎬ풼뚨믣싊뫍떽웚벴웚믣싊뇤뚯뛸닺짺뗄럧쿕ꆣ 뛾ꆢ뮻쯣럧쿕뗄맜샭랽램 1ꎮ닺뢺햮뇭쳗웚놣횵 벴짨램쪹뿧맺릫쮾뫏늢닺뢺햮뇭훐뗄췢뇒럧쿕닺폫췢뇒럧쿕뢺햮퓚뇒훖뫍뷰뛮짏쟷폚튻훂ꆣ죧맻듯떽쇋헢퇹뗄ힴ뿶벴럧쿕뺻닺뗈폚쇣ꎬ쓇쎴ꎬ믣싊뇤뚯틽웰뗄럧쿕닺볛횵뇤뚯잡뫃캪럧쿕뢺햮뗄볛횵뇤뚯뗖쿻ꆣ튻냣살쮵ꎬ떱뿧맺릫쮾풤닢떽뷱뫳튻뚨쪱웚쓚믣싊붫랢짺뇤뚯ꎬ뛸릫쮾뗄닺뢺햮뇭듦퓚럧쿕닺쪱ꎬ쯼뿉틔춨맽럖뇰뗷헻췢뇒닺뫍뢺햮살뷸탐닺뢺햮뇭쳗웚놣횵ꆣ 2ꎮ톡퓱믵뇒볆볛램 벴톡퓱쫊떱붻틗믵뇒틔뇜쏢잱퓚췢믣쯰틦ꆣ춨폃뗄랽램쫇복짙틔욣죭믵뇒뇭쪾뗄췢뇒뫍닺뫍쿖뷰쇷죫솿뗄쮮욽ꎬ쳡룟틔욣죭믵뇒뇭쪾뗄췢뇒뢺햮뫍쿖뷰쇷돶솿뗄쮮욽ꆣ퓚폐킩듳ퟚ붻틗훐ꎬ뿉틔톡퓱ퟩ뫏믵뇒떥캻죧쳘뇰쳡뿮좨뫍얷훞믵뇒떥캻뗈ퟷ캪볆볛믵뇒ꆣ 46
죽ꆢ붻틗럧쿕맜샭랽램 1ꎮ풶웚쫐뎡쳗웚놣횵ꎨForward Market Hedgeꎩ 샻폃풶웚췢믣쫐뎡ꎬ춨맽잩뚩뻟폐뗖쿻탔훊뗄풶웚췢믣뫏풼살럀랶평폚믣싊뇤뚯뛸뿉쓜쏉쫜뗄쯰쪧ꎬ틔듯떽놣횵뗄쒿뗄ꆣ풶웚췢믣뫏풼랴펳뗄쫇튻훖웵풼맘쾵ꎬ벴맦뚨튻랽떱쫂죋퓚붫살쒳룶쳘뚨죕웚ꎬ틔좷뚨뗄믣싊쿲쇭튻랽떱쫂죋붻룮튻뚨쫽뛮뗄쒳훖믵뇒틔뮻좡쳘뚨쫽뛮뗄쇭튻훖믵뇒ꆣ훁폚싄탐뫏풼뗄뷰살풴뿉쓜쫇쿖듦뗄믲뺭펪튵컱뗄펦쫕뿮믲짐컞ퟅ실ꎬ탨튪쪱퓙떽벴웚췢믣쫐뎡릺싲ꆣ춨맽풶웚쫐뎡쳗웚놣횵뿉틔뗃떽췪좫좷뚨뗄쿖뷰쇷솿볛횵ꎬ떫쯼캴뇘쫇ퟮ듳뮯뗄볛횵ꆣ샻폃풶웚쫐뎡쳗웚놣횵뗄잰쳡쫇뇘탫듦퓚풶웚췢믣쫐뎡ꎬ뛸퓚쿖쪵쫀뷧훐ꎬ늢늻쫇죎뫎믵뇒뚼듦퓚풶웚췢믣쫐뎡ꆣ 2ꎮ믵뇒쫐뎡쳗웚놣횵ꎨMoney Market Hedgeꎩ 춨맽퓚믵뇒쫐뎡짏뗄뛌웚뷨듻ꎬ붨솢엤뇈탔훊믲뗖쿻탔훊뗄햮좨ꆢ햮컱ꎬ듓뛸듯돉뗖늹췢뇒펦쫕뿮쿮ꆢ펦뢶뿮쿮쯹짦벰뗄믣싊뇤뚯럧쿕뗄쒿뗄ꆣ폫풶웚쫐뎡쳗웚놣횵튻퇹ꎬ믵뇒쫐뎡쳗웚놣횵튲짦벰튻룶뫏풼틔벰싄탐뫏풼뷰살풴컊쳢ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ헢쫇잩뚩뗄쫇튻룶듻뿮킭틩ꎬ벴톰쟳믵뇒쫐뎡쳗웚놣횵뗄릫쮾탨튪듓쒳룶믵뇒쫐뎡뷨죫튻훖믵뇒ꎬ늢붫웤퓚벴웚췢믣쫐뎡짏뛒뮻돉쇭튻훖믵뇒ꎬ춶죫쇭튻룶믵뇒쫐뎡ꆣ믵뇒쫐뎡쳗웚놣횵짦벰뷨뿮뮻믣뫍춶ꎨ벴뷨듻ꎩ솽룶맽돌뫍솽룶믵뇒쫐뎡ꎬ웤놣횵믺훆퓚폚솽룶믵뇒쫐뎡뗄샻싊닮틬폫풶웚믣싊짽ꎨ쳹ꎩ쮮뗄맘쾵ꆣ 3.웚좨쫐뎡쳗웚놣횵ꎨOption Market Hedgeꎩ 룹뻝뛔췢믣믣싊뇤뮯쟷쫆뗄풤ꎬ퓚췢믣웚좨쫐뎡짏ꎬ릺싲뾴헇믲뾴뗸웚좨ꎬퟸ맛췢믣쫐뎡뇤뮯ꎬ뻶뚨탐쪹믲럅웺웚좨ꎬ틔듯떽볈쓜놣횵폖폐펯샻믺믡뗄쒿뗄ꆣ평폚웚좨룸폨릺싲랽뗄쫇튻훖좨샻뛸늻쫇틥컱ꎬ릺싲랽퓚믣싊뇤뮯폚틑폐샻쪱탐쪹웚좨ꎬ폚틑늻샻퓲럅웺웚좨ꎬퟶ떽ퟸ뗘맛쳬ꎬ좷 47
놣쫕죫뗗쿟뛸뿉췻믱뗃컞쿞뗄펯샻ꆣ죧맻뿧맺릫쮾늻쓜좷뚨캴살쿖뷰쇷솿쫇럱랢짺믲뫎쪱랢짺ꎬ쓇쎴ꎬ웚좨쫐뎡쳗웚놣횵쫇ퟮ샭쿫뗄놣횵릤뻟ꆣ 죽ꆢ뺭펪럧쿕뗄맜샭랽램 1ꎮ뺭펪뛠퇹뮯ꎺ쫇횸퓚맺볊랶캧쓚쪵쿖웤쿺쫛쫐뎡ꆢ짺닺믹뗘틔벰풭쇏살풴뗘뗄뛠퇹뮯ꆣ 2ꎮ죚뛠퇹뮯ꎺ쫇횸퓚늻춬뗄뷰죚쫐뎡짏ힷ쟳뛠훖믵뇒뷰뗄살풴뫍펦폃ꎬ벴쪵쿖돯뛠퇹뮯뫍춶뛠퇹뮯ꆣ 놾헂틔펢맺BP쪯폍릫쮾캪샽ꎬ듓웤2000쓪훁2006쓪릲웟쓪뗄닆컱쫽뻝ퟅ쫖ꎬ늢뷡뫏뿧맺닺닆컱맜샭뗄믹놾횪쪶뫍샭싛풭샭ꎬ쫗쿈럖컶쇋튻룶돉쫬뗄뿧맺릫쮾죧뫎톡좡ퟔ벺뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄쒿뇪쫐뎡ꎬ죧뫎춨맽SWOT럖컶훆뚨ퟔ벺뗄춶닟싔ꎬ뷸뛸뫋쯣ퟔ벺뗄죚훐뗄닺뢺햮뇈샽뫍죚돉놾ꎬ틔벰춨맽쎿웚쿖뷰쇷살풤닢릫쮾뗄춶쫕틦ꎻ좻뫳샻폃DDM뫍RIM쒣탍ꎬ볆쯣쇋뛔췢춶쫕틦뛔웤릫쮾뗄ퟜ쫐횵듸살뗄믽벫펰쿬ꎻퟮ뫳ꎬ볲떥뷩짜쇋뿧맺릫쮾폶떽뗄벸훖췢믣럧쿕틔벰룷훖췢믣럧쿕뗄맜샭랽램ꆣ 춨맽놾헂럖컶컒쏇뿉틔뾴떽ꎬBP쪯폍릫쮾뗄좫쟲뺭펪쫇펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄튻룶돉릦랶샽ꆣ춨맽좫쟲뮯뗄뺭펪햽싔ꎬ뛠퇹뮯뗄쫐뎡톡퓱ꎬBP쪯폍릫쮾틲뗘훆틋ꎬ퓚늻춬뗄쒿뇪쫐뎡훆뚨쿠펦뗄춶닟싔ꎬ춬쪱믽벫뾪랢탂탍뿉퓙짺뗄쳦듺풴틔쏖늹웤ퟔ짭훷펪튵컱닺욷뗄늻뿉퓙짺탔듸살뗄좱쿝ꎬ늢뷡뫏웤돉쫬뗄췢믣럧쿕맜샭ꎬ돉캪쯹퓚탐튵훐쫗쟼튻횸뗄뿧맺릫쮾ꆣ ퟜ횮,웳튵쓜럱뷸죫맺볊쫐뎡,쫜뛠훖ퟛ뫏틲쯘훆풼,떫ퟮ믹놾뗄틲쯘뻍쫇살ퟔ웳튵뫍쫐뎡솽룶랽쏦ꆣ뛸웳튵쓜럱퓚맺볊쫐뎡믲춶맺햾컈뷅룺늢뎤ퟣ랢햹,탨튪헽좷훆뚨뫍쪵탐뿧맺춶뺭펪햽싔ꆣ 48
뷡 쫸 폯 듓뛾햽뫳횱떽뷱쳬ꎬ펢맺뗄뛔췢횱뷓춶솿튻횱업쏻쫀뷧잰쇐ꎬ탭뛠펢맺뗄뿧맺릫쮾뚼폐ퟅ좫쟲뮯뺭펪뗄럡뢻뺭퇩뫍돉쫬쒣쪽ꆣ놾컄룅쫶쇋쫀뷧뛔췢횱뷓춶럖늼틔벰펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄쟷쫆뫍쳘뗣ꎬ뷸뛸럖컶쇋뛔췢횱뷓춶뛔펢맺닺튵뷡릹ꎬ폈웤쫇뛔돶뿚뗄믽벫펰쿬ꆣퟮ뫳틔BP쪯폍릫쮾캪샽ꎬ뛔뿧맺릫쮾뗄뿧맺뺭펪맽돌ퟶ쇋잳쿔뗄퇐뺿ꆣ본폚ퟷ헟뷰죚닆컱횪쪶폐쿞틔벰쫽뻝쯑벯랽쏦뗄삧쓑ꎬ놾컄퓚뗚죽헂쯹붨솢뗄믘맩럖컶틔벰ퟮ뫳튻헂뗄닆컱럖컶뗄쒣탍믲폐늻췪짆횮뒦ꎬ폐듽폚놾죋퓚헢룶쇬폲ퟷ뷸튻늽뗄퇐뺿ꆣ 훐맺뺭볃쫇헻룶쫀뷧뺭볃뗄훘튪ퟩ돉늿럖ꎬ퓚믽벫뾪햹뛔췢쎳틗ꆢ듳솦컼틽췢짌횱뷓춶뗄춬쪱ꎬ맄샸훐맺웳튵ퟟ돶좥ꎬ듳솦랢햹뛔췢횱뷓춶ꎬ좫쏦닎폫맺볊뺺헹폫뫏ퟷꎬ폐샻폚쳡룟훐맺퓚쫀뷧뺭볃쎳틗훐뗄햽싔뗘캻ꆣ본폚듋ꎬ볓잿뛔맺췢뛔췢횱뷓춶샭싛뫍쪵볹뗄럖컶퇐뺿ꎬ컼쫕뫍뷨본맺췢퇐뺿돉맻뫍돉릦뺭퇩ꎬ뛔듙뷸훐맺뛔췢횱뷓춶컈늽붡뾵랢햹컞틉뻟폐훘튪뗄샭싛틢틥뫍쿖쪵틢틥ꎬ뛔폚훐맺뗄뛔췢횱뷓춶믮뚯튲붫쫇ퟷ헟볌탸맘힢뗄쇭튻룶퇐뺿랽쿲ꆣ 49
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훐 컄 햪 튪 20쫀볍80쓪듺틔살ꎬ뺭볃좫쟲뮯뷸돌쏷쿔볓뿬ꎬ맺볊볤짌욷ꆢ럾컱붻틗뫍맺볊놾쇷뚯맦쒣ꆢ탎쪽뗄퓶볓틔벰벼쫵뗄맣랺톸쯙뒫능쪹쫀뷧룷맺뺭볃뗄쿠뮥솪쾵뫍쿠뮥틀삵돌뛈죕틦퓶잿ꆣ뺭볃좫쟲뮯뗄훷튪듙뚯솦솿살ퟔ뿧맺릫쮾뗄뛔췢횱뷓춶ꆣ랢듯맺볒욾뷨웤잿듳뗄뺭볃쪵솦ꆢ탛뫱뗄벼쫵솦솿뫍럡뢻뗄뺭펪맜샭뺭퇩뗈폅쫆ꎬ뎤웚틔살튻횱쫇좫쟲뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄훷솦뻼ꎬ퓚좫쟲뛔췢횱뷓춶ퟜ뛮훐튻횱햼폐뫜듳뗄뇈훘ꆣ훐맺뺭볃쫇헻룶쫀뷧뺭볃뗄훘튪ퟩ돉늿럖ꎬ퓚믽벫뾪햹뛔췢쎳틗ꆢ듳솦컼틽췢짌횱뷓춶뗄춬쪱ꎬ맄샸훐맺웳튵ퟟ돶좥ꎬ듳솦랢햹뛔췢횱뷓춶ꎬ좫쏦닎폫맺볊뺺헹폫뫏ퟷꎬ폐샻폚쳡룟훐맺퓚쫀뷧뺭볃쎳틗훐뗄햽싔뗘캻ꆣ본폚듋ꎬ볓잿뛔맺췢뛔췢횱뷓춶샭싛뫍쪵볹뗄럖컶퇐뺿ꎬ컼쫕뫍뷨본맺췢뗄퇐뺿돉맻뫍돉릦뺭퇩ꎬ뛔듙뷸훐맺뛔췢횱뷓춶컈늽붡뾵랢햹컞틉뻟폐훘튪뗄샭싛틢틥뫍쿖쪵틢틥ꆣ 쒿잰맺쓚톧헟쏇퇐뺿늢뷨본뗄뛔췢춶듳맺훷튪캪쏀맺뫍컒쏇뗄뷼쇚죕놾ꎬ뛸뛔펢맺뗄퇐뺿퓲쿠뛔뿕냗ꆣퟷ캪샏없뗄놾훷틥잿맺ꎬ펢맺뗄뛔췢횱뷓춶폐ퟅ믔믍뗄샺쪷ꆣ듓뛾햽뫳횱떽뷱쳬ꎬ펢맺뗄뛔췢횱뷓춶솿업쏻쫀뷧잰쇐ꎬ탭뛠펢맺뗄뿧맺릫쮾뚼폐ퟅ좫쟲뮯뺭펪뗄럡뢻뺭퇩뫍돉쫬쒣쪽ꆣ평듋뿉볻ꎬ컞싛쫇뫪맛짏뗄맺볒헾닟횧돖ꎬ뮹쫇캢맛짏뗄릫쮾뺭펪햽싔ꎬ펢맺뚼폐ퟅ횵뗃컒맺뷨본뗄뗘랽ꎬ헢튲헽쫇ퟷ헟킴놾컄뗄돵훔ꆣ 놾컄닉폃맦랶퇐뺿뫍쪵횤퇐뺿쿠뷡뫏뗄랽램ꎬ퓚맣랺쯑벯쫽뻝뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ닻쫶펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄랢햹쟷쫆틔벰웤랢햹뗄뚯솦풴좪ꎬ럖컶펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶뛔놾맺뺭볃뷡릹쳘뇰쫇뛔돶뿚뗄펰쿬ꎬ늢틔펢맺몣췢춶튵컱ퟮ듳뗄뿧맺릫쮾횮튻ꆪꆪBP쪯폍릫쮾뗄좫쟲뺭펪햽싔캪샽ꎬퟅ훘첽쳖 1
펢맺뗄뿧맺릫쮾쫇죧뫎뾪햹뛔췢횱뷓춶랢햹햽싔뗄ꆣ좫컄듓FDI쇷쿲뗄뫪맛ퟟ쫆떽캢맛웳튵뗄뿧맺믮뚯ꎬ뷸탐닣닣뗝뷸뗄뾼달틔벰싛횤ꆣ 좫컄뷡릹낲업죧쿂ꎺ 탷싛ꎺ닻쫶쇋놾컄뗄퇐뺿놳뺰뫍톡쳢틢틥ꎬ쿠맘룅쓮뷧뚨ꎬ퇐뺿랽램ꎬ믹놾맛뗣벰훷튪뒴탂횮뒦ꆣ 뗚튻헂ꎬ쾵춳뗘뾼달럖컶쇋쫀뷧뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄랢햹샺쪷ꆢ쿖ힴ폫쟷쫆ꎬퟜ뷡돶쫀뷧뛔췢횱뷓춶탂쳘헷ꎺ뛔췢횱뷓춶쇷솿퓶뎤쯙뛈볓뿬ꎬ듦솿벱쯙엲헍ꎻ뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄훷튪맺볒쫇랢듯맺볒ꎬ랢햹훐맺볒뛔췢춶쿠뛔뷏짙ꎻ뿧맺늢릺믮뚯뗄퓶뎤횧독쇋쒿잰좫쟲뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄짏짽ꎻ뿧맺릫쮾돉캪뛔췢횱뷓춶훷쳥ꆣ 뗚뛾헂ꎬퟜ뷡쇋펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶랢햹ힴ뿶ꎬ늢뛔펢맺웳튵뷸탐몣췢춶뗄뚯틲뷸탐쇋럖컶ꆣퟷ캪맺볊놾뗄훘튪쫤돶맺ꎬ뿉듓듦솿뾼달펢맺퓚맺볊놾쇷뚯훐쯹햼뗄뻙ퟣ쟡훘뗄뗘캻ꎻ듓쇷솿럖컶펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶맦쒣뗄뇤뮯쟷쫆ꎻ늢듓펢맺FDI쇷쿲뗄쟸폲럖늼뿉뾴돶웤뿧맺춶뗄믮뚯랶캧ꆣ듓듳솿뗄쫽뻝뿉뾴돶ꎬ펢맺튻횱뚼쫇쫀뷧짏믽벫뷸탐뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄믮풾맺볒ꎬ튻쾵쇐틲쯘돉캪쇋펢맺뷸탐몣췢춶뗄췆뚯솦ꎬ퓚놾헂훐룸폨쇋뫪맛벰캢맛솽랽쏦뚯틲뗄럖컶ꆣ뫪맛짏ꎬ햽뫳뿆벼룯쏼뫍짺닺솦뗄톸쯙랢햹캪뿧맺릫쮾퓚맺볊랶캧쓚ퟩ횯짺닺뫍맜샭쳡릩쇋컯훊쳵볾ꎬ놾맺볊뮯뫍짺닺맘쾵맺볊뮯듙뷸쇋맺볊럖릤뗄짮뮯ꎬ룷맺컼틽췢뗄폅믝헾닟ꎬ폖캪펢맺뗄뛔췢횱뷓춶쳡릩쇋튻룶솼뫃뗄췢늿뮷뺳ꆣ캢맛짏ꎬ퓚ힷ쟳룟뛮샻죳뗄룹놾쟽뚯솦쿂ꎬ펢맺뿧맺웳튵랢믓뇈뷏폅쫆ꎬ캪믱좡컈뚨뗄풴릩펦ꆢ헹뛡뫍뿘훆맺볊쿺쫛쫐뎡삩햹몣췢춶튵컱ꆣ 뗚죽헂ꎬ펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶뛔놾맺돶뿚뗄펰쿬럖컶ꆣퟔ듓놾ퟷ캪튻훖짺닺튪쯘뿧풽맺뷧틔살,뛔췢횱뷓춶폫맺볊짌욷쎳틗볤뗄맘쾵뻍돉캪뺭뻃늻쮥뗄퇐뺿뿎쳢ꇵ듳솿뗄FDI쇷돶뛔펢맺뗄뺭볃뷡릹쳘뇰쫇뷸돶뿚 2
쎳틗뗄랢햹닺짺쇋뻞듳펰쿬ꇵ놾헂퓚뛔돶뿚펰쿬뗄뚨탔럖컶뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ붨솢볆솿쒣탍ꎬ뷸탐뛔췢횱뷓춶뛔펢맺돶뿚펰쿬뗄뚨솿럖컶ꎬ맛달뛔췢횱뷓춶뛔펢맺뛔췢쎳틗펰쿬뗄쿔훸탔폫돌뛈ꆣ 뗚쯄헂ꎬ펢맺뿧맺릫쮾뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄낸샽럖컶ꎬ헢늿럖캪놾컄뗄훘뗣ꆣ놾헂틔펢맺BP쪯폍릫쮾캪샽ꎬ듓웤2000쓪훁2006쓪릲웟쓪뗄닆컱쫽뻝ퟅ쫖ꎬ뷡뫏뿧맺닺닆컱맜샭뗄믹놾횪쪶뫍샭싛풭샭ꎬ쫗쿈럖컶쇋튻룶돉쫬뗄뿧맺릫쮾죧뫎톡좡ퟔ벺뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄쒿뇪쫐뎡ꎬ죧뫎춨맽SWOT럖컶훆뚨ퟔ벺뗄춶닟싔ꎬ뷸뛸뫋쯣죚훐뗄닺뢺햮뇈샽뫍죚돉놾ꎬ틔벰춨맽쎿웚쿖뷰쇷살풤닢릫쮾뗄춶쫕틦ꎻ좻뫳샻폃DDM뫍RIM쒣탍ꎬ볆쯣쇋뛔췢춶쫕틦뛔웤릫쮾뗄ퟜ쫐횵듸살뗄믽벫펰쿬ꎻퟮ뫳ꎬ볲떥뷩짜쇋뿧맺릫쮾폶떽뗄벸훖췢믣럧쿕틔벰룷훖췢믣럧쿕뗄맜샭랽램ꆣ 춨맽놾헂럖컶컒쏇뿉틔뾴떽ꎬBP쪯폍릫쮾뗄좫쟲뺭펪쫇펢맺뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄튻룶돉릦랶샽ꆣ춨맽좫쟲뮯뗄뺭펪햽싔ꎬ뛠퇹뮯뗄쫐뎡톡퓱ꎬBP쪯폍릫쮾틲뗘훆틋ꎬ퓚늻춬뗄쒿뇪쫐뎡훆뚨쿠펦뗄춶닟싔ꎬ춬쪱믽벫뾪랢탂탍뿉퓙짺뗄쳦듺풴틔쏖늹웤ퟔ짭훷펪튵컱닺욷뗄늻뿉퓙짺탔듸살뗄좱쿝ꎬ늢뷡뫏웤돉쫬뗄췢믣럧쿕맜샭ꎬ돉캪쯹퓚탐튵훐쫗쟼튻횸뗄뿧맺릫쮾ꆣ 퓚ퟮ뫳뗄뷡쫸폯훐ꎬ룅쫶쇋컄헂훷튪쓚죝ꎬ늢횸돶뷸튻늽뗄퇐뺿랽쿲ꆣ 3
Abstract Since the 1980'sꎬthe progress of the economic globalization has speeded up obviously. The increase of the international transactions between goods and servicesꎬthe increase of the scale and the forms of the international capital flow and the wide-ranging spread of technology has heightened the degree of the economic linkage and the dependence among nations of the world increasingly. The main driving force of the economic globalization originates from the FDI of the transnational corporations. The developed countries have been acting as the main force of the global FDI and occupying a very important place in the amount of the global FDI for quite a long time, relying on such advantages as powerful economic strength, rich technological forces and abundant experience of management and administration and so on. China’s economy is a significant component part of the entire world economy. There will be significant strategy sense for raising China’s position in the world economy and trade if the Chinese enterprises go outside to develop FDI vigorously and to take part in the international competition and cooperation in an all-round way while they are developing foreign trade and attracting FDI energetically. Therefore, strengthening the study of the theories and practice of FDI abroad, absorbing and using foreign research achievements and the success experience for reference are of great theoretical and practical significance to promoting the steady and healthy development of China’s Outward FDI. 1
Currently, the main outward FDI countries the domestic researcher are studying and using as source of reference are USA and our neighbor Japan, while the research to UK is relatively blank. As a veteran of the capitalist powerful country, the United Kingdom's foreign direct investment had a glorious history. From World War II until today, the British foreign direct investment has been in the forefront of the world rankings, and many British companies have global management experiences and maturity models. So, whether it is on the national macro-policy support, or micro-business strategy of the company, the British have some places to be used as source of reference by China, and this is precisely the original intention of the author to write this paper. In this paper the writer uses the method of combining standardized research and empirical study. On the basis of a wide range of data collection, the writer elaborates the development trend and the momentum source of UK’s foreign direct investment, and then analyzes the impact of British foreign direct investment on the country’s economy structure. Finally, the author takes a multinational corporation whose overseas foreign asset is one of the largest——BP Company’s global business strategy as an example, focuses on how to carry out the development of foreign direct investment strategies as a British multinational company. The writer starts the inspection and verification from the macro trend of FDI, and then to the Micro-enterprise’s transnational activities step by step. The whole paper is structured as follows: Introduction: This part describes the background of research and significance of the topic choosing, related definitions, research methods, basic 2
viewpoints and the major innovation. Chapter 1, the writer analyzes systematically the world's foreign direct investment in the development of history, current situation and trend, sums up the new features of world's foreign direct investment: Foreign direct investment flows increasingly at a faster pace, the rapid expansion of the stock; main outward foreign direct investment come from the major developed countries, while relatively less from developing countries; transnational mergers and acquisition activities support the growth of the global foreign direct investment; multinational companies become the main part of foreign direct investment. Chapter 2 summarizes development situation of the British foreign direct investment, and the British overseas investment enterprises due to the dynamic analysis. As a major exporter of capital, UK’s pivotal position in the international capital flows can be inspected from its FDI stock, the trend of changes can be analyzed from its FDI flow, and the scope of activities of transnational investment can be seen from the regional distribution of UK’s FDI. According to the large amounts of data, the United Kingdom has always been the world's active country in the foreign direct investment, a number of factors become the impetus of British overseas investment, which is analyzed in both of the macro and micro aspects in this chapter. In macro aspect, the post-war technological revolution and the rapid development of productive forces provide the material condition to multinational corporations within the framework of international organizations in the production and management, the capital internationalization and the relations of production internationalization promote the deepening of the international division of 3
labor. Different countries’ preferential policies for attracting foreign investment have also provided the United Kingdom's foreign direct investment a good external environment. In micro aspect, in the fundamental driving of high profits pursuit, the British multinational companies exert their comparative advantages, and expand overseas investment business in order to get a stable supply of resources and control international market sales. Chapter 3 is the analysis of the British foreign direct investment impact on its domestic export. Since the capital as a factor of production across borders, the relationship between foreign direct investment and international merchandise trade became a permanent research topicꇵ The large sum of FDI outflow has a tremendous impact on Britain's economic structure, especially the development of the import and export trade. Based on qualitative analysis to the FDI impact on export, this chapter builds econometric model to make quantitative analysis of UK’s FDI impact on its export, then observes the significance and extent of this influence. Chapter 4 is the case study of British transnational corporation’s foreign direct investment. This part is the central point of the thesis. This chapter chooses the BP Plc as a case, proceeds with its seven years financial data (from 2000 to 2006) as well as the basic knowledge and theory principles of cross-border assets financial management. The writer analyzes corporation how to select its target market as a mature multinational in a foreign direct investment, how to develop their own investment strategy by SWOT analysis, and then calculates its weighted average cost of capital as well as forecast the income of this project investment according to every year’s net cash flow; secondly, the writer calculates the positive effect this foreign direct investment 4
brings to the company’s market value by DDM and RIM models; finally, here is a brief introduction about several kinds of exchange risk faced by the transnational corporations and the management of each risk. From the analysis of this chapter, we can understand that BP Plc’s global operation is a successful exemplification of British foreign direct investment. Through its worldwide business strategy, diversified market choices, BP Oil Company lays down appropriate investment strategies according to different target market in light of local conditions, while actively develops new renewable and alternative resources to make up for the defect of non-renewable products in its main business at the same time, and is in conjunction with its mature foreign exchange risk management, BP becomes one of leading transnational corporations in its industry. The Conclusion outlines the main content of this thesis, and points out the direction of further research. 5
