즽뚫짧믡뿆톧ShandongSocialScience2004쓪뗚5웚(ퟜ뗚105웚),2004()FCFE쒣탍뷸탐맀볛뗄랽램펦폃ꆪꆪꆪ쟠떺욡뻆막욱볛횵럖컶믰ꆡ펱ꆡ헅몺량(즽뚫릤짌톧풺뺭볃톧풺,퇌첨ꆡ264005;놱뺩듳톧맢뮪맜샭톧풺,놱뺩ꆡ100871)[햪튪]ꆡ컒맺횤좯쫐뎡짏,짏쫐릫쮾뗄맀볛컊쳢컞틉쫇튻룶쓑쳢ꆣFCFE벴막좨ퟔ평쿖뷰쇷,쫇릫쮾퓚싄탐쇋룷훖닆컱틥컱뫳,쪣쿂뗄쓇늿럖쿖뷰쇷ꆣ막좨ퟔ평쿖뷰쇷맀볛쒣탍뗄뫃뒦쫇늻탨튪쏷좷뾼싇폫햮컱쿠맘뗄쿖뷰쇷,뛔웳튵볛횵뷸탐샭싛짏뗄움맀,늢쓜폫뎣폃횸뇪EBITDA(샻쾢쮰잰헛뻉뫍첯쿺쫕틦)뷡뫏쪹폃,럖컶웳튵뗄헦헽볛횵ꆣ[맘볼듊]ꆡFCFE;ꆡ쿖뷰쇷쳹쿖맀볛램;ꆡ컈뚨퓶뎤쒣탍[훐춼럖샠뫅]ꆡ[컄쿗뇪쪶싫]Aꆡ[컄헂뇠뫅]1003ꆪ4145[2004]04ꆪ0055ꆪ03ꆡꆡ튻ꆢ룅쫶(튻)쟠떺욡뻆볲튪럖컶퓚횤좯뗄뚨볛룟뛸막샻랢럅짙뗄죵쪽뗄폐킧쫐뎡짏,퓚쒿잰A막욡뻆샠탐튵훐,쟠떺욡뻆뗄샺쪷쪱웚뷏짏쫐릫쮾뗄맀볛듦퓚뻟쳥뗄삧쓑ꆣ퓚죽훖훷튪뗄쿖뷰쇷뎤,듓1996쓪뾪쪼,쟠욡뺭샺쇋벸쓪뗄룟쯙삩헅,맦쒣벱쳹쿖맀볛랽램훐,뫬샻쳹쿖쒣탍폐ퟅ쿔뛸틗볻뗄늻쫊폃뻧엲헍ꆣ쓪닺솿평1996쓪뗄37췲뛖쏍퓶떽2001쓪뗗뗄탔ꆣ뛸릫쮾ퟔ평쿖뷰쇷맀볛램(FCFF)훐뗄릫쮾ퟔ평쿖뷰250췲뛖,듓웤쫐뎡뢲룇싊,펵폐뗄욡뻆짺닺웳튵뫍싳톿뎧쇷쫇웳튵쯹폐좨튪쟳헟냼삨웕춨막막뚫,폅쿈좨막뚫뫍햮뗄쫽솿짏뿉돆캪좫맺쇺춷욡뻆벯췅웳튵ꆣ떫듓2001쓪뗄좨죋뗄쿖뷰쇷뗄ퟜ뫍ꆣ본폚컒맺뗄막좨럖늼쿖ힴ,쯆뫵횻쓪놨쿔쪾,쟠욡떱쓪뗄뺻샻죳캪10,289췲풪,폫풤볆쪵쿖폐FCFE벴막좨ퟔ평쿖뷰쇷램뿉틔뷸탐뇈뷏뿉탐뗄웳튵볛뺻샻죳17,051췲풪,닮뻠늻킡ꆣ쪹폃FCFE릫쮾ퟔ평쿖뷰횵움맀ꆣ쇷맀볛램뫢솿쯼뗄막욱쪵볊볛횵,늢폫웤쫐볛쿠뇈뷏,틔횤좯듺싫:600600퇩횤헢튻랽램쫇럱쓜뛔춶탐캪뷸탐횸떼ꆣ횤좯볲돆쟠떺욡뻆(뛾)쇏살풴폫쪹폃죭볾:벯췅쏻돆쟠떺욡뻆막럝폐쿞릫쮾쯹쫴냥뿩몬H막뗄A막,훘ퟩ룅쓮막,짏횤1ꆢ쫽뻝살풴ꆣAꆢCSMAR2000쾵춳;Bꆢ뫍톶룶막욵뗀180쯹쫴탐튵틻쇏훆퓬튵쟠떺욡뻆닆컱놨뇭;Cꆢ쳬췸횤좯탐쟩놨볛쾵춳ꆣ횤좯샠뇰짏쫐A막2ꆢ믘맩럖컶죭볾ꆣꆣ짏쫐죕웚1993-08-27뛾ꆢFCFE볛횵움맀럖컶쇷춨A막20000췲막(튻)움맀맽돌볲뷩ퟜ막놾106000ퟜ닺1ꆢri폫g횵뗄좷뚨:샻폃놾닺뚨볛쒣탍뛔r횵뷸잧풪쎿막뺻닺탐좷뚨ꆣ풪쎿막쫕틦.2453풪쫽뻝퇹놾닉벯:뺻닺쫕틦싊%ꋙ쟠떺욡뻆(600600)ꆰ뾼싇쿖뷰뫬샻퓙춶뗄퓂룶막ꆡꆡ뇭1ꆡ쫽뻝살풴:뫍톶룶막욵뗀쟠떺욡뻆닆컱놨뇭믘놨싊ꆱ(1993쓪9퓂훁2001쓪11퓂)ꆣ쇏뷘횹:2002-10-29ꋚ틔쟠떺욡뻆ꆰ뾼싇쿖뷰뫬샻퓙춶뗄퓂룶막믘놨놾컄붫펦폃헢튻움맀랽램,샻폃1993훁2002쓪뗄쟠싊ꆱ캪믘맩Y횵,벴펦뇤솿,틔ꆰ뾼싇쿖뷰뫬샻퓙춶뗄퓂떺욡뻆뗄샺쪷쇏뷸탐맀볛펦폃랽쏦뗄첽쳖,틔싛횤쫐뎡믘놨싊(쇷춨쫐횵볓좨욽뻹램)ꆱ캪믘맩X횵,벴ퟔ뇤FCFE쒣탍맀볛랽램뛔컒맺짏쫐릫쮾웳튵볛횵움맀뗄뿉탐솿ꆣ탔ꆣꋛ컞럧쿕샻싊닉폃맺햮쫐뎡샻싊ꆣ쫕룥죕웚:2004-03-19ퟷ헟볲뷩:믰ꆡ펱(1971-),얮,즽뚫릤짌톧풺뺭볃톧풺붲쪦;헅몺량(1971-),쓐,놱뺩듳톧맢뮪맜샭톧풺늩쪿짺ꆣꆡ55' 1994-2008 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
ꋜg횵뗄좷뚨,닉폃훐맺GDP퓶뎤쯙뛈살좷뚨ꆣr=릫쮾뗄막좨놾돉놾(춶헟뗄튪쟳쫕틦싊)2ꆢFCFE뗄좷뚨ꆣg=FCFE뗄컈뚨퓶뎤싊FCFE=뺻쫕틦+헛뻉폫첯쿺-놾탔횧돶-펪퓋(뛾)뻟쳥맀볛럖컶놾ힷ볓뛮-햮컱놾뷰뎥뮹+탂랢탐햮컱+탂랢탐막좨1ꆢri뗄믱뗃ꆣ놾E(R)=ri=rf+ꛂ[E(rm)-rf]쮵쏷:뺻쫕틦닉폃뺻샻죳,헛뻉폫첯쿺닉폃만뚨닺쇮rf=%(1996쓪훁2001쓪맺햮샻싊쯣쫵욽뻹헛뻉뫍룷쿮첯쿺횮뫍,놾탔횧돶쪹폃닉폃쇋춶믮뚯쇷쫽)돶뗄쿖뷰킡볆ꆣ놾ힷ볓뛮닉폃펪퓋놾(쇷뚯닺폫쇷퓲퓂샻싊캪r=%Π12=%(떥샻볆쯣)뚯뢺햮횮닮)뗄쿂튻쓪뛈폫짏튻쓪뛈횮닮ꆣ햮컱놾뷰뎥뮹듓SPSS죭볾짺돉뗄즢뗣춼뿉틔에뚨ꆰ쟠떺욡뻆뾼싇닉폃돯믮뚯쿖뷰쇷돶킡볆,탂랢탐햮컱폫탂랢탐막좨쿖뷰뫬샻퓙춶뗄퓂룶막믘놨싊ꆱ뫍ꆰ뮦쫐막A막뾼싇쿖놾횮뫍닉폃돯믮뚯쿖뷰쇷죫킡볆ꆣ뷰뫬샻퓙춶뗄퓂룶막믘놨싊ꆱ솽헟듦퓚쿟탔맘쾵,뿉틔3ꆢ막좨ퟔ평쿖뷰쇷쒣탍ꆣ쪹폃쿟탔믘맩램ꆣ틔쿂쫇믘맩뷡맻:닉폃컈뚨퓶뎤쒣탍,웤볙짨튪쟳릫쮾뻟놸캬돖컈뚨퓶ModelSummary뎤쯹탨뗄쳵볾,벴헛뻉쓜릻쏖늹놾탔횧돶,릫쮾뗄닺튲뇘탫뻟폐쫐뎡욽뻹럧쿕ꆣ쟠떺욡뻆뿉틔닉폃헢튻쒣탍ꆣꋙ퓚컈뚨퓶뎤쒣탍훐막좨놾뗄볛횵뻶뚨폚죽룶틲쯘SquaretheEstimate:쿂튻쓪뗄풤웚FCFE,컈뚨퓶뎤싊(a).뫍춶헟뗄튪쟳쫕틦r,벴P0=FCFE1Π(r-g)aPredictors:(Constant),뮦쫐막A막뾼싇쿖뷰뫬샻퓙춶P0=막욱떱잰뗄볛횵뗄퓂룶막믘놨싊FCFE1=쿂튻쓪풤웚뗄FCFECoefficients(a)(Constant)뮦쫐막A막뾼싇쿖뷰.뫬샻퓙춶뗄퓂룶막믘놨싊.뇭2ꆡꆰaDependentVariable:쟠떺욡뻆뾼싇쿖뷰뫬샻퓙춶뗄퓂룶막믘놨싊ꆱꆡꆡ듓믘맩럖컶뿉뾴돶ꛂ=,R2=ꆣR2퓚뺭볃욽=%+01850ꇁ%=91695%짏뗄몬틥짏쫇뇭쪾쫐뎡럧쿕퓚헻룶럧쿕훐쯹햼뗄뇈샽,퓚좡rf=%(욷훖ꆰ21맺햮15ꆱ)춳볆훐퓲듺뇭:믘맩쫽횵짏뿉틔에뛏,듋듎쓢뫏쟩뿶뷏뫃ꆣ뿉뗃2002쓪웚돵쟠떺욡뻆뗄막좨돉놾캪%ꆣ퓚듋볙짨떽막욱쫐뎡훐뗄춶믺믡춨뎣늻믡퓚튻쓪떫듓뺭퇩럖컶살뾴ꛂ,횵뗄닢쯣펦떱쫇뗍맀뗄ꆣ훐훘뢴돶쿖,퓲퓂ꛂ횵벴뿉쫓캪쓪ꛂ횵,랢햹훐뗄쫐뎡(돽2ꆢFCFE뗄믱뗃ꆣ죕놾췢뗄퇇훞쫐뎡)훐쪹폃뗄뛔헾뢮햮좯뗄럧쿕틧볛쫕틦평FCFE=뺻쫕틦+헛뻉폫첯쿺-놾탔횧돶-펪퓋싊튻냣캪%ꆣ틲듋,떥룶막욱뗄웚췻쫕틦싊평놾놾ힷ볓뛮-햮컱놾뷰뎥뮹+탂랢탐햮컱+탂랢탐막좨닺뚨볛쒣탍믹놾풭샭뗷헻캪E(R)=rf+ꛂꇁ럧쿕틧볛쮮놾,뗃쿂뇭:믡볆웚볤뺻샻죳헛뻉폫첯쿺춶믮뚯쇷돶뗄돯믮뚯닺짺뗄쿖쿖뷰킡볆놾횧돶뷰쇷솿뺻뛮펪퓋놾퓶볓FCFE19931231261,727,36146,630,717------------19941231165,757,0000------3,992,845---19951231140,171,375103,002,878-------333,613---1996123170,230,098104,486,469-------234,387,286---19971231102,226,716108,923,915-------235,291,184---1998123198,998,453125,066,776323,038,095-26,415,066-20,144,426-105,243,5061999123189,472,227179,038,143666,050,566254,487,233-1,065,369,864922,316,9012000123195,201,,287,520975,782,157743,318,462-505,644,362688,669,94720011231102,887,744532,550,0821,299,087,218359,460,561-910,870,713606,681,88220021231230,657,385474,244,636748,039,721-196,623,741-273,947,99834,186,557뇭3ꆡ쇏쮵쏷:1993쓪훁1997쓪쿖뷰쇷솿뇭쫽뻝폐좱쪧쿮,웤쯼쫽뻝살ퟔ룷쿮쓪놨놨뇭평P0=FCFE0ꇁ(1+g2002)Π(r-g)FCFE2002=34,186,557,샻폃훐맺2002쓪GDP퓶뎤쯙ꆡ56' 1994-2008 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뛈g2002=%뗃떽쟠떺욡뻆뗄FCFE2003캪36,750,549ꆣ쓪뛈199019951998199920002001200220032004훐맺GDP퓶뎤쯙뛈%(룟쪢풤닢횵)(룟쪢풤닢횵)뇭4ꆡ쇏살풴:IMF,WorldEconomicOutlookDatabase,2002쓪9퓂ꆡꆡ닉폃1998쓪훁2004쓪뗄훐맺GDP퓶뎤쯙뛈쯣쫵욽횵,캪1,842,132,782풪ꆣ훁2002쓪잰쟠떺욡뻆쇷춨막욱뻹횵%캪쟠떺욡뻆뗄FCFE뗄컈뚨퓶뎤싊gꆣ잰틑뗃쫽캪20,000췲막,퓲r=%ꆣ퓲r-g=%%=%;룷쿮쎿막볛횵=1,842,132,771Π20,000췲막=(풪)듸죫쒣탍,뗃떽36,750,549,퓲춬샭닉폃2004벰2005쓪g횵뗄풤닢횵,뿉틔뗃떽P2002=34,186,557ꇁ(1+%)Π(%%)=FCFE2004풤웚횵뫍FCFE2005풤웚횵럖뇰캪39,727,343풪뫍1,842,132,782(풪)43,064,440풪ꆣ죧쿂뇭쯹쪾:평FCFE쒣탍,움맀럖컶뗃떽2002쓪뗄막욱떱잰볛2002쓪2003쓪2004쓪2005쓪FCFE풤웚횵34,186,55736,750,54939,727,34343,064,440P풤웚횵1,842,132,7821,991,345,5142,158,618,546---쎿막볛횵풤웚횵---뇭5ꆡ쮵쏷:2003쓪ꆫ2005쓪FCFE뻹캪풤닢횵ꆡꆡ죽ꆢퟜ뷡폫럖컶램뫶싔뢺햮뇈싊ꆢ막좨뇤뚯뗈틲쯘,늢ퟷ돶튻쾵쇐볙짨,탨듓놾컄훐뗄볛횵움맀뷡맻살뾴,2002쓪뗄쎿막볛횵뗄튪뷸튻늽럖컶닅쓜에뛏웤헦쪵볛횵ꆣ풤웚횵캪풪,뛸2002쓪뛈뗄막볛퓚7ꆫ8풪뗄랶캧쓚퓚컒맺짏쫐릫쮾뗄볛횵럖컶훐,횮쯹틔톡퓱쟠떺욡뻆늨뚯,욫샫늻듳ꆣ틲캪쫜막쫐뗄듳엌횸쫽틲쯘펰쿬,웤쫐헢튻퇹놾,풭틲횻쫇평폚웤쫽뻝뷏캪췪헻,쓪놨쪱웚뷏뎤,볛뿉쓜퓚쒳튻쓪뛈돶쿖뗍맀,헢쫇탨튪뾼싇뷸좥뗄ꆣ뛸틗폚믱뗃ꆣ훁폚헢튻랽램쫇럱뻟폐맣랺탔폫웤웕뇩췆맣2003쓪틔뫳웤막볛틑뺭짏탐훁8ꆫ10풪,폫쯹뗃뗄P풤웚뗄뿉쓜탔,짐듽뷸튻늽뾼달ꆣ떫FCFE벴막좨ퟔ평쿖뷰쇷횵쿠컇뫏ꆣ2004쓪뛈뗄풤닢볛횵펦쫇퓚10ꆫ11풪,쒿잰램ퟶ캪뇈뷏뿉탐뗄웳튵볛횵움맀랽램뷸탐펦폃뗄잰뺰퓲볛룱ퟟ쫆헽뒦폚헢튻뿕볤ꆣ헢돤럖횤쏷쇋풤닢뷡맻폫쟠뿉틔돵늽뿏뚨ꆣ떺욡뻆뗄막볛ퟟ쫆쿠럻뫏,쮵쏷퓚뛔쟠떺욡뻆뗄맀볛훐,닉폃FCFE볛횵움맀럖컶랽램뻟폐튻뚨뿉탐탔,뿉틔ퟷ캪ꋙ퓚듋뫶싔웳튵뗄H막,2001쓪뗄퓶막삩죝,뢺햮뇈춶볛횵럖컶뗄닎헕ꆣ떫헢샯쫽뻝럖컶뗄ힼ좷탔쫜죧쿂싊뗈틲쯘뛔웳튵볛횵뗄펰쿬ꆣ틲쯘펰쿬:1ꆢ짏쫐릫쮾쟠떺욡뻆뗄FCFE뗄좷뚨쫇퓚볙뚨웤릫뾪닎뾼컄쿗뗄믡볆쇏좷쫴헦쪵뗄잰쳡쿂뗃떽뗄,ힼ좷탔쫜랢늼뗄쫽[1]AswathDamodaranꆶ:춶맀볛ꆷ[M]1996쓪냦,훬커뻝펰쿬ꆣ쿩ꆢ뗋몣럥틫,쟥뮪듳톧돶냦짧1999쓪냦ꆣ2ꆢg횵뗄맀볆폫좷뚨쫇퓚볙뚨릫쮾뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈폫훐맺[2]듷캬ꆤEꆤ믴뷰쮹ꆶ:릫쮾닆컱놨룦럖컶ꆷ[M]1998쓪GDP퓶뎤쯙뛈튻훂,쎻폐욫룟믲욫뗍뗄쟩뿶쿂뗃떽뗄ꆣ헢냦,쯯ꆢ맹폀쟥훷틫뚫놱닆뺭듳톧돶냦짧2000쓪냦ꆣ쫇튻훖뷏캪놣쫘뗄맀볆,웤뿆톧탔폫웕폃탔탨뷸튻늽뗄싛[3]쳀쒷ꆤ뿆웕삼ꆢ뗙쒷ꆤ뿆샕ꆢ뷜뿋ꆤ쒬쇖ꆶ:볛횵움맀:횤ꆣ뻟쳥랽램짐듽뷢뻶ꆣ릫쮾볛횵뗄뫢솿폫맜샭ꆷ[M]뗚3냦,뫂짜싗ꆢ킻맘욽틫,뗧3ꆢ쟠떺욡뻆뗄뻟쳥ퟟ쫆늻뿉쓜폫맀볆볛횵췪좫튻훂,ퟓ릤튵돶냦짧2002쓪냦ꆣ떫헢죔늻쓜럱뚨헢튻랽램뗄뿉폃탔ꆣ펦떱힢틢뗄쫇놾랽(퓰죎뇠벭:쿾욽)ꆡ57' 1994-2008 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
