냪 ꗟ ꒤ ꖡ ꑪ 뻇 끝 냈 뫞 뉺 곣 ꡳ ꧒ 뫓 ꑨ 뷗 ꓥ ꗸ띾궫뻣뭐꒽ꕱ믹귈돐덹?ꇐꕈAT&T결꣒ 뻉뇐뇂ꅇꕶ 뫵 돕ꑨ 곣 ꡳ ꗍꅇꟵ ꖿ ꗁ ꒤ 뗘 ꗁ 냪 ꑅ ꑑ ꙾ ꙾ ꒻ ꓫ
냪ꗟ꒤ꖡꑪ뻇맏껑쁝 뫓돕ꑨ뷗ꓥ뇂앶껑 ?ꖻ뇂앶껑꧒뇂앶꒧뷗ꓥꗾꓥ뭐륱ꑬ색ꅁ결ꖻꑈ꧳냪ꗟ꒤ꖡꑪ뻇ꅁ벶뱧꒧뫓?돕ꑨ뻇ꛬ뷗ꓥꅃ?ꕈꑕ뷐뻜ꑀ꓄뿯??( V )Ꙑ띎 (ꗟꝙ뙽꧱) ( )Ꙑ띎 (ꑀ꙾ꯡ뙽꧱)ꅁ귬ꙝ걏ꅇ ( )Ꙑ띎 (ꑇ꙾ꯡ뙽꧱)ꅁ귬ꙝ걏ꅇ ( )꒣Ꙑ띎ꅁ귬ꙝ걏ꅇ 뇂뭐냪ꗟ꒤ꖡꑪ뻇맏껑쁝ꅁ냲꧳뇀냊얪뚡ꅵ룪랽Ꙁꅂ꒬둦ꙘꝀꅶ꒧뉺꧀ꅁ꧳Ꙟꫀ라뭐뻇덎곣ꡳ꒧ꗘꪺꅁ녯꒣궭ꙡ냬ꅂ껉뚡뭐ꚸ볆ꅁꕈ꿈ꖻꅂꗺ뫐ꅂ뫴룴꣤ꖦꙕ뫘ꓨꩫꚬ뿽ꅂ궫뭳ꅂ뭐땯ꛦꅁꙁ뇂앶ꕌꑈꕈꙕ뫘ꓨꩫ궫뭳뭐ꝑꗎꅃ 곣ꡳꗍ쎱ꙗ: Ꟶ ꖿ ꗁ 뷗ꓥꙗ뫙: ꗸ띾궫뻣뭐꒽ꕱ믹귈돐덹ꇐꕈAT&T 결꣒ 뻉뇐뇂ꥭꙗꅇ ꕶ 뫵 돕 ꑨ ꡴꧒ ꅇ 끝 냈 뫞 뉺 ꧒ o돕ꑨ n뫓ꑨ 꽚 뻇뢹ꅇ 88425022 ꓩ듁ꅇꗁ냪 90 ꙾ 6 ꓫ 10 ꓩ 돆뗹ꅆ?ㄮ?ꖻ뇂앶껑뿋떧뛱뱧ꯡꅝ륱ꑬ색뷗ꓥꕩꗎ륱뢣ꖴ꙲ꅞꅁ뷐뱶Ꙍ룋굱꧳꿈ꖻ뷗ꓥ껑ꙗ궶꒧ꚸ궶ꅁꖼꖻ뇂앶껑ꅁ맏껑쁝녎꒣꒩엧ꚬꅃ?㈮?ꑗ굺Ꙑ띎뭐꒣Ꙑ띎꒧쓦ꛬ굙ꖼ꓄뿯ꅁꖻꑈꙐ띎뗸Ꙑ뇂앶ꗟꝙ뙽꧱ꅃ?
멋†?굮?Ꙣ륌ꕨꅁ륱ꭈ늣띾곒ꗑꙕ냪걆ꦲ꧒썢쉟롧샧ꅁ꣤뽗ꕥꪺꙡꛬꑀꓨ궱걏륱ꭈ늣띾쏶ꕇꑀ냪꒧덱끔땯깩꒧냲슦ꯘ덝뭐냪깡ꙷꗾ꒧떦늤ꛒ뙱ꅁ뱶암ꗁꗍ곆륤ꅆꕴꓨ궱걏ꗑ꧳륱ꭈ늣띾Ꙣ뾳ꯘꫬ듁꧒ꑊꪺ룪볆뙱꒧썥ꑪꅁꭄꗴ꛳ꑀ깡ꗸ띾꧒꿠굴닼ꅁꖲ뚷ꗑ냪깡끝걆벷듚꣓굴뻡륱ꭈ덝돆ꪺꓤꕘꅁ걇ꙕ냪걆ꦲ맯륱ꭈ늣띾꣣ꚳꕄ뻉앶꽓덜롧샧앶ꅃ땍ꛓꅁꗑ땯ꧺ륱룜ꪺꢩ몸꧒돐ꯘꪺꅵ과냪륱룜륱돸꒽ꕱ(AT&T)ꅶꙢ1984덑과냪걆ꦲ녪꣮꓀돎ꕈ꣓ꅁꕀ곉ꙕ냪Ꙣ륱ꭈ늣띾ꪺꛛꗑ꓆뭐냪믚꓆롽ꡂ녱ꖼ낱륌ꅁꑝꗑ꧳룓늣띾ꪺ뽗꽓꧊ꅁꕈ꣤꧒구ꗍꕘ꣓ꪺ냓뻷ꅁꭐ꣏ꗾ뉹륱ꭈꖫ돵Ꙣ꣤ꪩ맏뭐룪랽뙩ꛦ궫꓀끴ꪺ늣띾ꗍ멁ꅃ ꖻꓥꕈAT&T결귓껗곣끑ꪺ껗꣒ꅁ걏뗛늴꧳AT&T덯깡뽗ꕥ과냪륱ꭈꖫ돵꫱ꛊ꙾꒧ꑛꅁꙢ비덻꣬ꑀ덳ꛪꪺ꒺Ꙣ뭐ꕾꙢ샴맒뱀꽐엜꓆ꅁ뻉교꒽ꕱꙢ과냪륱ꭈꖫ돵ꪺ믢뻉ꙡꛬ꣼꣬걄뻔ꅃ결ꑆ꒽ꕱꗍ꙳ꗸ띾믹귈ꪺ뱗ꕛꅁAT&T뇄꣺ꑀ덳ꛪꪺꗸ띾궫뻣떦늤ꕈ결ꙝ삳ꅁꛓ꣤꒤ꑓꕈꑔꚸꪺ꓀돎ꗳ꒽ꕱ멘ꑕꪺ뎡땯ꛦ끬시결놴끑궫쉉ꅁ싇ꚹ꣓ꓱ룻덯꣢뫘떦늤Ꙣ냵ꛦꑗꅂ꣏ꗎ껉뻷뭐떦늤냊뻷ꪺ깴늧ꅁ맯꒽ꕱ꒣Ꙑꝑ깠쏶ꭙꑈꪺ뱶암ꅃꕴꕾꅁ맯꧳AT&TꙢ덯떦늤궱ꪺ냵ꛦꑗꅁ덺륌맪쏒곣ꡳ꣓놴끑ꕝ걁꓀돎ꯅꝩ듁뚡ꪺ뙗썂돸륓ꅂ꣖쇊ꛓꯡ꓀돎ꪺ곛쏶샋ꥷꕈ끬시땯ꛦꯅꝩ듁뚡ꪺ뙗썂돸륓떥ꗳ곣ꡳꅁ놴끑꒣Ꙑꪺ궫뻣떦늤맯ꩆ끝둉ꪺ뱶암ꅃ ꖻꓥ돌ꯡꟆ뇦꿠덺륌맯냪ꕾ륱ꭈ늣띾곣ꡳꪺ껗꣒ꅁ꿠맯냪꒺륱ꭈ띾Ꙣ궱맯뽅꽐ꪺ륱ꭈꛛꗑ꓆꒧샴맒쑶ꪧꪺꙐ껉ꅁ떹꒩ꑀ떦늤냵ꛦꪺ냑ꛒ귉쏨ꅃꣃ뺬뇦냪꒺륱ꭈ꒽ꕱꪺꖼ꣓땯깩꿠뉍랡ꙡ뭻ꪾꙢꕸ왗륱ꭈꖫ돵ꪺꥷꛬꅁ쁈껉ꙝ삳륱ꭈꖫ돵ꪺ샴맒ꛓ뷕뻣ꗸ띾떦늤ꅁꗸꡄ꒽ꕱ믹귈뭐ꩆ끝둉랥ꑪ꓆ꅃ 쏶쇤꙲ꅇꗸ띾궫뻣ꅁ꓀돎ꅁ끬시ꅁ꣖쇊ꅃ
ꗘ†?뿽?궶ꚸ?맏ꗘ……………………………………………………………ꊺ?ꫭꗘ……………………………………………………………ꊺ?닄ꑀ뎹††뫼뷗………………………………………………1?닄ꑀ론††곣ꡳ냊뻷………………………………………………?1?닄ꑇ론††곣ꡳ걛멣………………………………………………?3?닄ꑇ뎹††ꗸ띾궫뻣랧굺…………………………………4?닄ꑀ론††ꗸ띾궫뻣꒧ꮬ멁………………………………………?4 닄ꑇ론?ꗸ띾꓀돎……………………………………………9?닄ꑔ론?끬시…………………………………………………?21?닄ꑔ뎹? AT&Tꗸ띾궫뻣…………………………………?27?닄ꑀ론††ꗾ뉹륱ꭈ늣띾뭐ꖼ꣓땯깩쇍뛕………………………?27?닄ꑇ론? AT&Tꪺꗸ띾궫뻣겡냊……………………………?…?39?닄ꑔ론? AT&T늧녠돸륓곛쏶맪쏒곣ꡳ……………….….…….66?닄ꕼ뎹††떲뷗뭐ꯘ쒳………………………………………?73?냑ꛒꓥ쑭………………………………………………………?74?뿽……………………………………………………………?77? I
맏†††ꗘ?궶ꚸ?맏2-1? 1988ꛜ1996꙾뚡과냪ꕄ굮ꗸ띾꓀돎ꅂ앶꽱돎엽끬시땯ꛦ꒧셚껄….8 맏2-2??ꗸ띾궫뻣떦늤꒧놡맒꓀꩒…………………………………………………?12?맏3-1? 1984꙾AT&T닄ꑀꚸ꓀돎ꯡ꒧ꗸ띾닕슴ꮬ멁……………………………41 맏3-2? 1996꙾AT&T닄ꑇꚸ꓀돎ꯡ꒧ꗸ띾닕슴ꮬ멁……………………………44 맏3-3? AT&T땯ꛦ꣢ꚸ끬시ꯡ꒧앶떲멣……………………………………..52 맏3-4? 2000꙾AT&T닄ꑔꚸ꓀돎ꯡ꒧ꗸ띾닕슴ꮬ멁……………………………64 ꫭ†?ꗘ?ꫭ2-1? ꗸ띾궫뻣뭐궫닕꒧ꑀ꿫꧊걛멣……………………………………………. 5 ꫭ2-2? ꗸ띾궫뻣꒧ꑔ뫘ꕄ굮ꮬ멁………………………………………………….7?ꫭ3-1? ꛦ냊륱룜땯깩랧굺………………………………………………………….28 ꫭ3-2 ꕸ왗륱ꭈ띾롧샧륱ꭈ띾냈뚵ꗘ………………………………………….38?ꫭ3-3? 1996꙾AT&T꓀돎ꭥꯡ꒧끝냈셚껄꓀꩒………………………………….48 ꫭ3-4? Lucent꫱듁꒧ꙘꝀ맯뙈……………………………………………………50 ꫭ3-5? 끬시뭐ꗸ띾꓀돎맯꒽ꕱ뫊뫞꡴닎꒤ꝑ깠쏶ꭙꑈꪺ뱶암………………55 ꫭ3-6? 1996꙾꣓AT&T궫굮ꪺ꣖쇊ꅂꙘ룪떦늤셰럹껗………………………56 ꫭ3-7? AT&Tꕼꑪ껖ꓟ띾뎡………………………………………………….60 ꫭ3-8 ꓀돎ꯅꝩ듁뚡꒧뙗썂돸륓…………………………………………………67 ꫭ3-9 AT&T꣖쇊TCIꯅꝩ듁뚡꒧뙗썂돸륓………………………………….…69 ꫭ3-10 AT&T꣖쇊MediaOneꯅꝩ듁뚡꒧뙗썂돸륓……………………………..69 ꫭ3-11 AT&T꓀돎ꯅꝩ듁뚡AWE꒧뙗썂돸륓…………………………………..71 ꫭ3-12 AT&T꓀돎ꯅꝩ듁뚡꒧뙗썂돸륓………………………………..71 II
닄ꑀ뎹†?뫼††뷗?닄ꑀ론?곣ꡳ냊뻷?ꕸ왗ꪺ륱ꭈ늣띾ꛛ륱ꭈꗁ샧꓆뙽꧱ꕈ꣓ꅁꭋꟖ덴ꙡ붴꭫땯깩ꅁ녱ꛦ냊륱룜뙽꧱떹ꗁ샧띾냑뭐쑶ꪧꛦꙃ뙽ꥬꅁ꣬ꗘꭥꪺ뫴냵럓꒧땯꧱ꅁꕈꖼ꣓ꪺ닄ꑔꕎꛦ냊륱룜(3G)냵럓ꪺ뙽꧱ꅂ냪믚껼왬꧓꾲띾냈ꅂ덱ꭈ뭐뫴룴ꪺ늧띾떲럹ꅁꙢꙢꪺꕘꕸ왗ꪺ륱ꭈꪩ맏뛕ꖲ쁈뗛ꗾ뉹륱ꭈ늣띾ꪺ롽ꡂ늾냊ꅃ덜Ꙩ냪믚ꑪꮬꪺ륱ꭈ꒽ꕱꅁ꙰과냪AT&TꅂMCI WorldComꅂ굞냪륱끔?BT?ꅂ뱷띎ꟓ륱끔ꅂꓩꖻNTT떥ꅁ꣤ꚨꕜꪺꗸ띾궫뻣롧샧볒ꚡꅁ곒ꕩꚨ결ꕸ왗ꖼ꣓륱ꭈ띾ꪩ맏ꪺꙮ꣥뵤ꅆꗾ뉹ꙕꑪ륱ꭈ꒽ꕱ때꒣ꕦꢬꗾꑏꅁ결꒽ꕱ롧샧띾냈ꪺ쉘ꑪꅂ결ꖫ돵ꕥꚳ뉶ꪺ뱗ꕛꅂ결녍샧돦ꑀ륱ꭈ띾ꅁ뻉교ꗾ뉹륱ꭈꪩ맏ꪺ꓀꓀ꙘꙘꅆꙝ결굙땹꒣꽤띎ꅁꯜꕩ꿠ꧺꓩ둎궱셻덑뉞ꡏꪺꥒ륂ꅁ덯걏귓쑶ꪧ뱀꽐ꪺ륱ꭈ껉ꕎꅃ?ꅵꙘꑛꖲ꓀ꅁ꓀ꑛꖲꙘꅶꅁꑀ뭹륄꽽ꑆꗾ뉹륱ꭈ늣띾ꪺ땯깩뻺땻ꅃ녱과냪륱룜륱돸꒽ꕱ?AT&T?꧳1984꙾꒧닄ꑀꚸꗸ띾꓀돎뙽ꥬꅁꖴ꽽ꑆ륱ꭈ꒽ꕱꕈꦹ썢쉟륱ꭈꖫ돵ꪺꞽ궱ꅃꙢ뙽꧱쑶ꪧꪺ륃삸덗ꭨꑕꅁꙕ냪륱ꭈꑪ뱴때꒣ꕦꢬꗾꑏꅁ뺬맏싇뗛ꕈꦹꪺ뽗ꕥ쁵뛕ꅁꭏꚳ륱ꭈꑪ믦ꪺ싗뫓ꝑ볭ꅃ꧳걏덺륌ꚬ쇊뭐Ꙙ꣖ꪺꛦ냊ꅁ롧샧꣤ꕌ륱ꭈ구ꗍꪺ곛쏶늣띾ꅁꕈ꣏꣤ꗸ띾뚰많쉘ꑪꅁꣃꟆ뇦ꝑꗎ뚰많꒺뎡싗둉ꪺ룪랽ꅁꕈ뒣꣑ꗎꓡꗾꓨꛬ륱ꭈꩁ냈ꅃ걏ꅁꑝꚳ띕꣓띕Ꙩꪺ륱ꭈ꒽ꕱꅁ꧳꫱꙾꣓꧱뇳뭐ꖻ띾꒣곛ꑺꪺ뎡ꅁ뿯뻜ꕘ냢닦싷ꗀ꒽ꕱꅁꕈꚨ결ꑀ귓돦꿂ꪺ륱ꭈ띾냈롧샧꒽ꕱꅃ덺륌ꗸ띾꓀돎(spin-off)ꪺꓨꚡꅁꕈ뱗ꕛꗸ띾믹귈뭐ꩆ끝둉ꅁ꣏꣤ꗸ띾꓀돎ꯡꪺ셠ꖫ귈ꑪ꧳귬꣓ꙘꙢꑀ끟ꪺꖫ귈ꅃ뒫ꕹ룜뮡ꅁꗸ띾꓀돎ꚳ껄ꪺ돐덹ꕘ꿂뫩롧샧(pure plays)ꅂ꣣ꚳꧺ뵔늣띾뵤돲ꪺ꒽ꕱꅁꑝ걏ꗀ꒽ꕱ신늾룪늣놱꣮앶ꛜꑬ꒽ꕱꓢꑗꪺꑀ뫘ꝃꚨꖻꓨꚡꅃ? 1
녱뻇맪쏒곣ꡳ꒤꧒땯뉻ꅁPorter(1987)곣ꡳ33깡과냪ꑪꮬ꒽ꕱꙢ1950꣬1986꙾뚡ꅁꚳꕢ볆ꕈꑗꙢ뙩ꛦꗸ띾꣖쇊ꪺ겡냊ꯡꑓ뙩ꛦꗸ띾꓀돎ꅁꕌ뭻결ꚳ꒽ꕱ꧓뭻륌ꕨꙨꢤ꓆ꪺ뿹뭾ꡍ떦ꅁꣃ뙽ꥬꑪ덗볒ꪺꗸ띾궫뻣군땥ꅆKaplan뭐Weisbach(1992)곣ꡳ땯뉻꧳1971꣬1982꙾ꞹꚨ꣖쇊ꪺ꒽ꕱ볋ꖻ꒤ꅁꚳ44%ꪺꗘ볐꒽ꕱ꧳1989꙾ꕈꭥꑓ뙩ꛦꗸ띾꓀돎ꅆꙢ1,158깡볋ꖻ꒽ꕱ꒤ꅁMitchell뭐Lehn(1990)곣ꡳ1982꣬1986꙾뚡ꚳ401깡꒽ꕱ땯ꗍ꣖쇊ꪺ겡냊ꅁꛓ꣤꒤ꚳ%Ꙣ1988꙾ꕈꭥꑓ뙩ꛦꗸ띾꓀돎ꅃ엣ꗜꗾ뉹ꩫꑈ뻷멣뭐룪ꭷ뭻결ꗸ띾ꓰ믝뫻꯹ꑪ꯭ꑪꪺꞽ궱ꅆꑗ굺ꪺ맪쏒곣ꡳꗧ엣ꗜꗸ띾ꗧꕩ싇뗛꓀돎ꪺ볒ꚡꛓ륆ꚨ뱗ꕛꗸ띾믹귈ꪺꗘꪺꅃ?? 2
닄ꑇ론?곣ꡳ걛멣?ꖻ곣ꡳꑄ놴끑AT&T뙩ꛦꗸ띾궫뻣(business restructurings)겡냊ꪺ귓껗ꅁ꓀꩒ꗸ띾냵ꛦ꣖쇊ꅂ꓀돎끬시땯ꛦ떥궫뻣겡냊맯꒽ꕱ믹귈ꪺ뱶암ꅃ?Ꙣ닄ꑇ뎹ꅵꗸ띾궫뻣랧굺ꅶ뎡꓀ꅁꖻ곣ꡳ녎맯ꗸ띾궫뻣꒧쏾ꮬ낵ꑀ랧걁꧊뮡ꧺꅁꙁ맯ꗸ띾꓀돎뭐끬시땯ꛦ꣢귓ꕄ썄낵뙩ꑀꡂꙡ쓄굺ꅃꙢ닄ꑔ뎹ꅵAT&Tꗸ띾궫뻣ꅶꪺ꒺깥ꅁ궺ꗽ맯ꗾ뉹륱ꭈ늣띾땯깩쇍뛕Ꝁꑀ랧ꩰ뮡ꧺꅁꣃ맯AT&T녱1984꙾닄ꑀꚸꭄꛛ쑀꧊꓀돎뙽ꥬꅁ맯꣤꧒냵ꛦꑀ덳ꛪꪺꗸ띾꓀돎ꅂ꣖쇊뭐땯ꛦ끬시떥ꪺ닕슴떲멣엜궲ꅂ냊뻷ꥍ귬ꙝ떥ꑀꑀ룔굺ꅁꣃ꧳돌ꯡ뮲ꕈ맪쏒곣ꡳꅁꝑꗎFama (1976)ꪺꖫ돵볒ꚡ(Market Model)ꅁ꓀ꝏ놴끑AT&T꧳2000꙾닄ꑔꚸ꓀돎겡냊ꯅꝩ듁뚡걏ꝟ늣ꗍ늧녠돸륓꣤멘ꑕ꧒땯ꛦꪺ끬시걏ꝟꑝꙢ꓀돎ꯅꝩ듁뚡늣ꗍ늧녠돸륓ꅁꕈ꓀돎ꯅꝩ듁뚡ꪺ믹늧녠돸륓ꥍ꣖쇊ꯅꝩ듁뚡ꪺ믹늧녠돸륓걏ꝟ꣣ꚳ쏶덳꧊ꅁꕈ닅ꙘAllenꅁLummerꅁMcConnellꅁ뭐Reed떥뻇꧒뒣ꕘ꒧ꅵ귗ꖿ뿹뭾ꅶ(correction-of-a-mistake)ꪺ낲덝ꅃꙢ돌ꯡꑀ뎹ꅵ떲뷗뭐ꯘ쒳ꅶꪺ뎡꓀ꅁꭨ맯ꖻꓥ낵ꑀ궫쉉꧊ꪺ뻣뉺ꅃ 3
닄ꑇ뎹†?ꗸ?띾?궫?뻣?랧?굺?닄ꑀ론?ꗸ띾궫뻣꒧ꮬ멁?ꑷꚳ띕꣓띕Ꙩꪺꑪ꒽ꕱꖿꙢ뻇닟꙰꛳덺륌ꗸ띾궫뻣ꪺꓨꚡ꣓뒣ꩆ앶꽱ꪺ믹귈ꅃꑀ꿫꣓뮡ꅁꗸ띾ꕩꕈ싇뗛떲Ꙙꅝ꙰꣖쇊ꅂ셰럹떥ꅞꪺꮬ멁ꅁꥍ꓀룑(break-up)ꪺꓨꚡ꣓궫닕꒽ꕱꪺ룪늣뭐굴뛅ꅃꖻ론녎끑뷗ꗸ띾궫뻣ꪺꑀ꿫꧊랧굺ꅁꣃꓱ룻ꙕ뫘꒣Ꙑꪺ궫뻣떦늤ꪺꮬ멁ꅃꛓꙢ꒧ꯡꪺ뎡꓀ꅁ라뗛궫꧳ꗸ띾꓀돎ꕈ땯ꛦ끬시걏ꝟ꿠돐덹ꕘꗸ띾믹귈ꅁꑝ둎걏ꗸ띾꧳꓀깡ꯡꪺ셠ꖫ귈곛룻꧳꓀깡ꭥꪺꖫ귈걏ꝟ룻ꑪꛓꥷꅃ셼꣒꣓뮡ꅁ AT&T꧳1996꙾꓀ꕘ껔끔곬(Lucent Technologies)ꥍNCRꯡꅁ1998꙾AT&T떲ꙘLucent뭐NCRꪺ셠ꖫ귈결1,590믵과꒸ꅁ곛룻꧳꓀깡ꭥꪺꖫ귈(1996)결750믵과꒸ꅁꢬꢬꑪꑆ꣢궿ꚳ빬ꅃꙝꚹꅁ굙떦늤냵ꛦ녯럭ꅁꗸ띾꓀돎ꗎꕈ돐덹ꩆ믹귈ꪺ볒ꚡ녎걏ꑀ뫘녠멁ꅁꛓꭄ걏ꑀ뫘꣒ꕾꅃ?J. Fred Weston, Kwang S. Chung, and Juan A. Siu(1998)ꕘꅁ녱ꑀ귓룻뱳롱ꪺꢤꯗ꣓곝ꅁꫭ2-1엣ꗜꗸ띾궫뻣ꪺꑀ꿫꧊걛멣ꕝ걁ꑆꕼꑪ쏾ꝏꅇ룪늣뫞뉺ꅂ꧒ꚳ앶닕슴ꅂ끝냈궫뻣ꅂꕈ꣤ꕌꪺ떦늤ꅃꑀ꿫꣓뮡ꅁꗸ띾뙩ꛦ궫뻣ꪺ떦늤꒣ꕾꕇꑕ궱덯ꮬ멁ꅃꕈꦹ럭꒽ꕱ궱셻꒺뎡뭐ꕾ뎡ꪺꖫ돵샴맒엜꓆껉ꅁ꒽ꕱ뎣ꓱ룻뗛궫Ꙣ샧륂걆떦ꓨ궱ꪺꛒ뙱ꅁ꙰뒣ꩀ빐냢썂ꅂ궰ꝃꚨꖻꅂꑈꑏ룪랽ꅂ끝냈떲멣뷕뻣떥ꅆꗸ띾궫뻣ꭨ녎땊쉉꧱Ꙣꟳ궫ꑪꪺ쒳썄ꅁꕝ걁뱶암뻣귓꒽ꕱ닕슴떲멣ꅂ앶떲멣ꅂ곆ꛜ꒽ꕱ뎡ꪺ꙳쓲떥ꅃꙝꚹꅁ굙ꑀ깡꒽ꕱꙢꖲ뚷궱셻궫뻣껉ꅁꖲ녎낵뾦녋ꪺꗾ뵌덗릺ꅁꕈ뱶암꣬꒽ꕱꙕ귓꒣Ꙑꢤꛢ꒧ꝑ깠쏶ꭙꑈ(stakeholders)ꪺ믹귈ꅃ 4
ꫭ2-1?ꗸ띾궫뻣뭐궫닕꒧ꑀ꿫꧊걛멣 ꑀꅂ룪늣ꪺ궫닕(Reorganization of assets) 1. ꚬ쇊(Acquisitions) 2. ꕘ냢멍룪(Sell-offs or divestitures) ꑇꅂ돐덹띳ꪺ꧒ꚳ앶쏶ꭙ(Creating new ownership relationships) 1.꓀돎(Spin-offs) 2.꓀싷(Split-offs) 3.앶꽱돎엽(Equity carve-outs) 4.끬시(Tracking stocks, targeted stocks, letter stock, or alphabet stock) ꑔꅂ끝냈궫닕(Reorganizing financial claims) 1.앶ꗦ뒫(Exchange offers) 2.꣢뚥걱ꙁ룪ꖻ궫꛴(Dual-class recapitalizations) 3.뿄룪룪ꖻ궫꛴(Leveraged recapitalizations) 4.끝냈룪ꖻ궫꛴(Financial recapitalizations) 5.뉍뫢(Liquidation) ꕼꅂ꣤ꕌ떦늤(Other strategies) 1.Ꙙ룪(Joint ventures) 2.귻ꑵ늼꧒ꚳ앶군땥뭐ꚳ궭Ꙙ맙ꝑ꽱(ESOPs and MLPs1) 3.셼뛅뙒ꑕ뭐ꡰꚳ꓆ꗦ꧶(LBOs and Going-private transactions) 4.냪믚ꖫ돵(Using international markets) 5.늼쇊Ꙟ군땥(Share repurchase programs) 룪껆꣓랽ꅇWeston, J. F., Juan A. Siu and Brian A. Johnson, 2000, “Takeovers, Restructuring, & Corporate governance”, 3rd, Prentice Hall. Patricia L. Anslinger, Steven J. Klepper, and Somu Subramaniam(1999)떥뻇녎ꗸ띾궫뻣꓀결ꑔ뫘ꕄ굮ꪺ냲ꖻꮬ멁ꇐ끬시ꅂ앶꽱돎엽ꗸ띾꓀돎ꅁꣃ뮡ꧺ꙰ꑕꅇ?ꑀꅂ?끬시?†ꗀ꒽ꕱ결꣤돦ꑀ뎡ꑬ꒽ꕱ땯ꛦꪺ늼ꅁ싇ꕈ끬시ꅝ걍ꅞ룓뎡ꑬ꒽ꕱꪺ곕빬셚껄샲ꝑ꿠ꑏꅃ끬시ꕩꕈ럭낵ꝑꓤ끴떹ꗀ 1 ESOP (Employee Stock Ownership Plan) MLE (Master Limited Partnership) 5
꒽ꕱꪺꩆꅁꗧꕩ녎꣤ꕈꫬꚸ꒽뙽땯ꛦ(IPO)ꪺꮬꚡꙢ꒽뙽ꖫ돵ꑗꗦ꧶ꅃ끬시ꪺ띾뎡꒴꣼ꗀ꒽ꕱ뢳라ꪺ뫊뫞놱꣮ꅁ꣤늣ꗍꪺ뉻걹뙱샲ꝑ뭐ꗀ꒽ꕱ꓀ꝏ군뫢ꅃ?ꑇꅂ?앶꽱돎엽?녎ꑬ꒽ꕱ돦ꑀ띾뎡녱ꗀ꒽ꕱ꓀싷ꕘ꣓ꅁ뽗ꗟꚨꑀ깡꒽ꕱꅆꑬ꒽ꕱ걙ꑀ뎡ꗷꪺ늼덺륌IPO빐냢꣬꒽뙽ꖫ돵ꑗꅁꗀ꒽ꕱꕩꙢ꒣ꖢꕨ맯꣤놱꣮앶ꪺꭥ뒣ꑕ샲녯늼빐냢꧒녯ꪺ뉻ꪽ놵톺ꩠꅁꕂꗀ꒽ꕱ꒴ꭏꚳꙨ볆ꪺ꧒ꚳ앶(majority-owned)ꅁꕈ뒣꣑ꑬ꒽ꕱ떦늤꧊땯깩ꓨꙖ뚰많ꪺ룪랽ꅃ덱녠ꅁ냵ꛦ앶꽱돎엽ꪺꑬ꒽ꕱꯡ꣓ꯜꕩ꿠라땯ꗍꗸ띾꓀돎ꪺ겡냊ꅃ?ꑔꅂ?ꗸ띾꓀돎?녎ꑬ꒽ꕱ돦ꑀ띾뎡녱ꗀ꒽ꕱ꓀싷ꕘ꣓ꅁ뽗ꗟꚨꑀ깡띳ꪺꑬ꒽ꕱꅆ띳뽗ꗟꪺ꒽ꕱ늼?ꕩ뗸결ꑀ뫘꽓ꝏꪺ늼ꝑ)ꗀ꒽ꕱꩆ꯹ꓱ꣒꓀끴떹귬ꩆꅃ?꿷녎덯ꑔ뫘ꗸ띾궫뻣ꪺꮬ멁ꅁ꣤ꕄ굮깴ꝏ꙰ꫭ2-2꧒ꗜꅇ?ꗑ맏2-1꣓곝ꅁ꓀ꕘ(spun-out)ꪺ뽗ꗟ꒽ꕱꕈꕌ귌ꪺꗀ꒽ꕱ꧳꓀ꕘꯡꪺ셚껄ꫭ뉻둘ꕇ쁵꧳ꑪ뵌볐( index benchmark)ꅃ엣ꗜ띕꣓띕Ꙩꪺꗸ띾뚰많볶끊꧳땊쉉롧샧ꪺꗸ띾ꅁ뺨뫞꣤덗볒꒣굙뻣Ꙙꯡꪺꗀ꒽ꕱ꣓녯ꑪꅁ샧륂셚껄ꫭ뉻ꚳꗘꙀ례ꅃ ? 6
ꫭ2-2?ꗸ띾궫뻣꒧ꑔ뫘ꕄ굮ꮬ멁??끬시?앶꽱돎엽?ꗸ띾꓀돎?꒴곩ꚳꑀ귓뢳꓀ꚨ꣢귓뢳라ꅁ뫞꓀ꚨ꣢귓뢳라ꅁ뫞뉺놱꣮앶?라ꅁ둸뒤Ꙣꗀ꒽ꕱꪺ뉺ꪽ놵Ꙗ띳ꪺ뢳ꪽ놵Ꙗ띳ꪺ뢳라뢳라ꓢꑗꅃ?라굴덤ꅃ?굴덤ꅃ?띳꒽ꕱꪺ룪늣ꡓꚳ녱ꗀ꒽ꕱ꓀돎ꕘ녱ꗀ꒽ꕱ꓀돎ꕘ꣓ꅁ늾꒽ꕱ룪늣ꛛꗀ꒽ꕱ꓀돎ꕘ꣓ꅁ늾신꣬띳꒽ꕱꅆ신꣬띳꒽ꕱꅆ곕빬꒴꓀?꣓ꅁ곕빬ꖲ뚷꓀뙽곕빬꒴꓀뙽군뫢ꅃ?뙽군뫢ꅃ?군뫢ꅃ?룪쑷뚰?ꚳ?ꚳ?ꚳ?뫮껄?꙳Ꙣ?꙳Ꙣ?껸ꖢ?뷒땼놡꒣뚷뷒땼ꅃ?꒣뚷뷒땼ꅃ?Ꙣ걙궭꣮ꪺ뇸ꗳꑕ?뚷뷒땼ꅃ?ꑬ꒽ꕱ꒣꧶덑쑶ꪧ꒽ꕱꕩ꿠덑쑶ꪧ맯ꗀ꒽ꕱ써뫃ꑬ꒽ꕱ꿠맯ꓢ놵뫞ꅁ덑궢ꞹꓢ놵뫞ꅁ덑궢ꞹꗾꝟ꣣ꚳ뽗ꛛ꙳겡ꪺ꿠쎭ꥷ꧊ꗾꙡ꓀돎ꅃ ꙡ꓀돎ꅃ?ꑏꅁꝟꭨꅁꖼ꣓ꪺ떲ꞽ(stability)?ꯜꕩ꿠걏덑꣤ꕌ꒽ꕱ놵뫞걏궱셻귋뎬꽽늣ꪺꥒ륂ꅃ?1. ꑬ꒽ꕱꕩꝑꗎꗀ1. ꗀ꒽ꕱꑬ꒽ꕱ1. ꗀ꒽ꕱꪺꙕ뎡뚡꒽ꕱ룻꣎ꪺ룪ꖻ믝굮룻꣎ꪺ룪꣺때ꩫꙁ늣ꗍ뫮껄ꕈ떲멣ꕈ귉녯룻ꝃ녯뫞륄ꅃ 듀꒽ꕱ돐덹돌ꑪꪺꚨꖻꪺ굴뛅룪2. ꑬ꒽ꕱꕩꝑꗎꗀ믹귈ꅃ ꅁꙝꚹ맯뛅앶ꑈ꒽ꕱ룻꣎ꪺ룪ꖻ떲2. ꮪ꧳ꗀ꒽ꕱꪺ궭꣮룻ꚳꭏ믙ꅃ 멣ꕈ귉녯룻ꝃꚨꖻꛓ꣏뎡ꪺꚨ2. ꑬ꒽ꕱꪺ셚껄ꫭꪺ굴뛅룪ꅃ 빐냢꣼ꅃ 빁ꗎ뇸ꗳ?뉻곛룻꣤ꕌꙐ띾3. ꑬ꒽ꕱ룪군릺3. 뭐ꗀ꒽ꕱꙢ뫞뉺ꗀ꒽ꕱ꣤ꕌ뎡ꪺꡍꥷ앶Ꙣꗀ꒽ꕱꡍ떦ꑗꚳ뷄곰ꅁ곆ꛜ결낪ꅃ ꓢꑗꅁ꙰ꚹ라덹ꚨꚨ맯ꗟꅃ 3. ꗀꑬ꒽ꕱ꒴띑꓀ꑬ꒽ꕱ꽂돸룪륷4. ꑬ꒽ꕱꪺ셚껄ꫭ뉻뫮껄덗볒롧뫢ꛓꚨ때껄뉶ꅃ 뢨ꯡꙐ띾ꓴ럇ꅁꕈ샙ꪺ껄ꩇꅁꑀ끟꣏뙩룻깴ꪺ샧륂ꪬꩰꅃ ꗎꙐ볋ꪺꗸ띾룪랽ꅃ 룪껆꣓랽ꅇꖻ곣ꡳ뻣뉺 7
맏2-1?1988ꛜ1996꙾뚡과냪ꕄ굮ꗸ띾꓀돎ꅂ앶꽱돎엽끬시땯ꛦ꒧셚껄 ꩆ앶꽱돸륓뉶⠥????ꖫ돵볆?ꗀ꒽ꕱ ꑬ꒽ꕱ -S&PEquityS&PTrackingS&PSpin-S&PEquityRussellTrackingS&Poffs500carve-500stocks500offs500carve-2000stocks500outsouts볋ꖻ볆794616786723 ꩆ앶꽱돸륓뉶걏ꕈ꣢꙾결꣤뷆Ꙙꚨ뉶 볋ꖻ꒽ꕱ뿯꣺ꓨꚡꅇ늼Ꙣ과냪ꗴꑀꗦ꧶꧒ꑗꖫ;ꗀ꒽ꕱꚬꑊ뙗륌$2믵과꒸ꅆ ꒣ꕝ걁뿄뻷멣ꅆ룪껆녱BloombergCompustat꣺ 룪껆꣓랽ꅇBloombergꅆCompustatꅆStandard & Poor'sꅆZacks Investment ResearchꅆMcKinsey analysis 룪껆꣓랽ꅇDoing the spin-out”, The McKinsey Quarterly 2000 Number 1, pp100 돌ꯡꅁPatrick A. Gaughan(1996)꧒굺꒧꒽ꕱ궫뻣(corporate restructuring)ꕝ걁멍룪ꇐ룪늣ꪺꕘ냢겡냊ꅁ덱녠걏뷦놼셚껄룻깴ꪺ뎡ꅁ걏꒽ꕱꙁꚸ녎롧샧궫ꓟ꧱Ꙣ껖ꓟ띾냈뎡ꅁꕘ냢ꭄ껖ꓟ띾냈뎡ꅆꕴꑀ뫘꒽ꕱ궫뻣ꪺ쏾ꮬ걏ꚨꖻ돒냊ꑏꪺ궫뻣ꇐ꒽ꕱ덗볒ꪺ셙듮ꕈ엜녯ꟳꚳ껄뉶ꅆ닄ꑔ뫘꒽ꕱ궫뻣ꪺꮬ멁걏끝냈ꑗꪺ궫뻣ꇐ엜꒽ꕱ룪ꖻ떲멣끝냈멢뇬ꕈꙝ삳꣖쇊겡냊ꪺ뙩ꛦꅃ? 8
닄ꑇ론?ꗸ띾꓀돎?ꖻ론녎놴끑ꗸ띾꓀돎ꪺ냲ꖻ뉺뷗ꅂ냊뻷ꕈ쁵꿊쉉ꅃ?ꑀꅂ냲ꖻ뉺뷗?ꗸ띾꓀돎ꅁ둎걏녎Ꙩ꒸롧샧ꪺ꒽ꕱ멘ꑕ걙ꑀ띾뎡꓀돎ꚨ뽗ꗟꪺꑬ꒽ꕱꅁ엽꣤녍ꩠꙢꛛꑶ뻕ꪺ믢냬ꑗꙢꖫ돵ꑗ쑶ꪧꅃ꓀돎ꕘꪺꑬ꒽ꕱ앶ꗀ꒽ꕱꩆ꯹ꓱ뉶꓀끴떹ꗀ꒽ꕱ귬ꩆꅁ룓ꗀ꒽ꕱꩆꭋ뻖ꚳ꣢귓뽗ꗟꪺ꒽ꕱ늼ꅃꑀ꿫ꪺꗸ띾꓀돎ꚳꕈꑕꑔ뫘ꗦ꧶떲멣꽓꧊ꅇ?(ꑀ)ꗸ띾꓀돎ꡓꚳ꽁뉻ꗦ꧶ꅁ꓀ꕘ꣓ꪺꑬ꒽ꕱꚳꛛꑶꪺ뢳라ꅂ뫞뉺뚥뱨ꅂ룪늣뭐굴뛅ꅃꛓꕂꅁꙢ꓀돎ꞹꚨꯡꅁ귬ꗀ꒽ꕱꪺꩆ꯹ꚳ꣢깡꒽ꕱꪺꗷꅃ?(ꑇ)녎꓀ꕘ꣓ꑬ꒽ꕱꪺ앶꽱ꅁꑀ뎡꓀Ꙣ띳ꑗꖫ(IPO)빐냢꣬꒽뙽ꖫ돵ꑗꅁ쇋빬ꪺ뎡꓀꒴귬ꗀ꒽ꕱ꯹ꓱ꣒꓀끴떹ꩆꅃ덯뫘ꗦ꧶ꓨꚡꑓ뫙결ꅵ앶꽱돎엽ꅶꅁꕂ꒣믝뷒땼ꅃ??ꑔ)닄ꑔ뫘ꗦ꧶ꓨꚡꅁ뭐ꗸ띾꓀돎ꑀ꿫ꅁ꒣꽁뉻ꗦ꧶ꅁ뫙결ꅵ꓀싷ꅶꅃꑬ꒽ꕱꪺ늼ꣃꭄ귬ꗀ꒽ꕱ꯹ꓱ꣒꓀끴떹ꩆꅁꛓ걏떹꒩ꩆꑀ귓뿯뻜앶ꅁꕩꕈ녎귬ꗀ꒽ꕱꪺꗷꗦ뒫걙ꑀꓱ꣒꒧띳ꚨꗟꑬ꒽ꕱꪺꗷꅁꙝꚹꅁꩆꕩ꿠신뒫ꚨ띳꓀돎ꕘ꣓ꪺ꒽ꕱꪺꗷꅁꗧꕩ꿠꒣냑뭐신뒫ꅁ꒴꯹ꚳ귬ꗀ꒽ꕱꪺꗷꅃ맯ꗀ꒽ꕱꛓꢥꅁ덺륌꓀싷ꪺꓨꚡꕈ듮ꓖꗀ꒽ꕱ걹덱Ꙣꕾ볆ꅁꕩꕈ뱗ꕛꡃ곕빬ꅃ?ꗸ띾꓀돎덱녠ꕘ뉻Ꙣ꒽ꕱ띾뎡뻣Ꙙꪺ껄꽱ꑰ꧳꓀깡ꪺ껄꽱ꅁ늣ꗍ샧륂ꑗꪺ뫮껄(negative synergy)껉ꅁꑾ라ꛒ뱻녎걙ꑀ띾뎡꓀돎ꕘꕨꅁꕈ뺬끬ꡄꗸ띾뻣엩믹귈랥ꑪ꓆ꅃ? 9
꫱둘ꑑ꙾꣓ꅁꗸ띾덺륌꣖쇊ꅂ떦늤셰럹ꅂꙘ룪ꪺꛦ냊ꅁꚨ띕꣓띕Ꙩꪺ뚰많ꖨ썾ꅁꕌ귌ꭷ뭻결꒽ꕱ뻣엩ꪺꑏ뙱굮ꓱꙕ귓뎡ꪺ셠ꥍ녪녯ꙨꅆꙨꢤ꓆롧샧ꕩꕈ궰ꝃ롧샧궷쁉ꅁ쎭ꥷ꒽ꕱ곕빬랽걹ꅃ걏ꅁꟳꚳ덜Ꙩ덗볒썥ꑪꪺꗸ띾ꅁꙢ꒵ꓑ쑶ꪧ뽅꽐ꪺꖫ돵료ꅁ엣녯샧륂녯꒣뚶멚ꅂ껄ꩇ꒣맼ꅁꙝ결ꕌ귌ꣃꡓꚳꗸ띾뚰많꧒ꚳꪺ룪랽뭐ꓟꑏ뚰꒤Ꙣ꒽ꕱ돌녪ꪺ믢냬ꑗꅃꙝꚹꅁ띑굮엽Ꙩ꒸롧샧뚰많덯뫘썥땍ꑪꪫ겡끟꣓ꅁ돌ꙮꪺ떦늤둎걏쏶놼뭐껖ꓟ띾냈꒣곛쏶ꪺ꣤ꕌ띾뎡ꅁ엽ꖦ뽗ꗟꕘꕨꚨꑀ깡ꑬ꒽ꕱꅃ돌꣥ꮬꪺꗸ띾꓀돎귓껗둎걏과냪냪믚륱룜륱돸꒽ꕱ(ITT)꧳1995꙾ꞹꚨ$124믵과꒸ꪺ꓀돎껗ꅁ녎꒽ꕱ꓀ꚨꑔ깡뽗ꗟꪺꑬ꒽ꕱꅇITT HarfordꅂITT IndustriesꅂITT Corp.ꅁITTꣃ맯ꩆ굉껑ꅁ꣏ꕌ귌곛ꭈ꒽ꕱꙢ꓀돎ꚨꑔ귓맪엩ꯡꪺ셠믹귈라뙗륌떲ꙘꙢꑀ끟ꪺ믹귈ꅃ꒣ꑛꅁAT&Tꑝ꧳Ꙑ꙾룲뙩ꅁ꓀결ꑔ깡ꑬ꒽ꕱꅇꅵnew AT&Tꅶ녍뫞덱끔ꅂꅵLucentꅶ굴덤덱끔땷엩ꗍ늣ꅂꅵNCRꅶ녍ꕱ륱뢣뭳덹ꅆꓩꖻ륱룜륱돸꒽ꕱ(NTT)꓀ꝏ꧳1992꙾1999꙾녎ꛦ냊덱끔뎡(NTT DoCoMo)뫴뎡(NTT EastꅂNTT WestꕈNTT Communications)꓀돎ꚨꗟ띳ꪺꑬ꒽ꕱꅆ뭳덹붦놲꦳ꓹꪺ걟륆(Kodak)녎ꗬꑨ냒(Eastman)꓆뻇꒽ꕱ꓀돎ꕘꕨꅆSearsꛊ덦뷦놼ꭏ쁉띾(Allstate Insurance)ꅂ꒣냊늣띾(Coldwell Banker Real Estate)ꅂ쏒꣩롧곶ꗲ꒶띾(Dean Witter Reynolds)ꕈꝑꟳ녍ꩠ꧳껖ꓟꪺ륳냢띾2ꅆ1980꙾ꕎ굞ꕎ몸(Intel)닦싷DRAM띾꒧떦늤ꅁ녎띾냈싪ꥷꙢ띌덂뉺뺹(CPU)ꪺ뭳덹덝군ꪺ껖ꓟ꿠ꑏꅃꕈꑗ덯싇뗛ꗸ띾꓀돎ꕈ뱗ꕛꩆ꒽ꕱ믹귈ꪺ귓껗ꚳ띕꣓띕Ꙩꪺ쇍뛕ꅃ?ꗸ띾꓀돎ꪺ낵ꩫꙢꖫ돵ꑗꑝꯜ꣼앷ꫯꅃ껚뻚J. P. Morganꪺ닎군ꅁ과냪ꛛ1985꣬1995꙾뚡ꅁꑬ꒽ꕱ꧳ꞹꚨꗸ띾꓀돎꒧ꯡꪺ18귓ꓫ뚡ꅁ 2 ꕩ냑ꛒStuart L. Gillan, John W. Kensinger, John D. Martin, ”Value creation and corporate diversification: the case of Sears, Roebuck & Co. ”Journal of Financial Economics 55(2000) 103-137 10
꣤믹ꪺꫭ뉻ꓱ끟ꗀ꒽ꕱꖭꞡꛓꢥꅁ녪ꑗ20%ꅃ?ꗸ띾꣖쇊걏냲꧳덗볒쉘ꑪ걏Ꙩꢤ꓆롧샧라늣ꗍ뫮껄꒧껄ꩇꅃ걏ꅁꗸ띾꓀돎덺앓ꕴꑀ뫘끔꺧ꅇ덗볒ꑪ꒣ꢣ녯걏ꙮꅆꑀ깡꒽ꕱꩠ띎ꑏ꧱Ꙣ뭐껖ꓟ띾냈꒣곛쏶ꪺ띾롧샧ꅁꯜ깥꧶라ꖢꕨ롧샧ꪺ땊쉉ꅁ꣏꒽ꕱꪺ뻣엩믹귈뙽ꥬꢫꑕꅃꕈꦹꅁꗸ띾싇ꗑꮫꪽꚡꪺ뻣Ꙙ볒ꚡꅁ꽁ꢬ꒣Ꙑꪺ띾냈믢냬ꅁꗸ맏둸뒤늣ꭾ뵵꒧귬껆꣺녯ꅂ뭳덹ꗍ늣ꅂ빐냢덱룴ꑗꑕ듥엩꡴ꅆ걏싇뗛ꓴꖭꚡ뻣Ꙙꅁ녎Ꙑ띾냈꧊뷨ꪺ꣤ꕌ꒽ꕱ꣖ꑊꅁꕈ둸뒤뻮쉟궱ꪺꓴꖭ엩꡴ꖫ돵ꚳ뉶ꅆ곆덺륌뷆Ꙙꚡ쇊꣖ꅁ녎꧊뷨쇕ꕟ싡ꪺ띾땷듪Ꙣꑀ끟ꅃꚳ걏ꚨꕜꑆꅁ땍ꛓꅁꟳꙨꪺ꒽ꕱꕈ멇뇑ꚬ돵ꅃ?ꅵ뚰꒤땊쉉ꅂ뱗뙩덴ꯗꅂꪧ꣺냓뻷ꅶ걏ꧪ꯹ꗸ띾꓀돎ꪺ돌꣎뉺ꗑꅃ녎꒽ꕱꪺ띾냈뺮뭅땊쉉ꅁꭋ라녯ꪾ녍ꓟ롧샧ꪺꙮ덂ꅁ꒽ꕱ둎라뙽ꥬ꣼꽱ꅃꦼ녯?ꟹ꧔Ꝋ(Peter F. Drucker)뭻결ꅇ뚰꒤룪랽Ꙣ뻷라ꑗꅁꓱ뚰꒤Ꙣ냝썄ꪺ룑ꡍꑗ굮꣓녯ꚳꝑꅃ굙꒽ꕱ꿠냷샧륂꒣ꙮꪺ뎡뗴놼걏꓀ꕘꕨꅁ둎꒣ꗎ껶뙏껉뚡Ꙣ냝썄ꪺ룑ꡍꑗꅃ굙꒽ꕱ껉뚡ꫡꙢ뻷라ꪺ둸뒤ꑗꅁ껄ꩇ걏엣ꛓ꧶ꢣꪺꅃ?†덺륌맏2-2ꪺꅵ놡맒꓀꩒ꅶ(scenario analysis)ꅁꕩ셁룑Ꙣꙕ뫘놡맒ꪬꩰꑕ꒽ꕱ꧒삳뇄꣺ꪺꗸ띾궫뻣ꛦ냊ꅃꗑꚹꕩꪾꅁꗸ띾뚷녯쁈껉ꙝ삳꒣Ꙑꪺꖫ돵샴맒ꑕꅁ낵ꕘ맯룓꒽ꕱ돌ꚳꝑꪺ떦늤ꓨ끷ꅁꕈꡄ꒽ꕱ믹귈랥ꑪ꓆ꅃ? 11
맏2-2?ꗸ띾궫뻣떦늤꒧놡맒꓀꩒ 뻣껄꽱Ꙙ낪롧꧳샧ꚨꪺꖻ?걏쑾쓲뻣Ꙙ롧샧ꝟ뽗껄꽱ꗟ낪롧꧳샧ꚨꪺꖻ?걏ꗸ띾꓀돎,ꙕꛛ뽗ꗟ롧샧ꝟ멍룪:꒽덂꓀뎡꓀룪늣꒽ꕱꕱ궫ꕘ뻣냢뉍뫢 룪껆꣓랽ꅇꖻ곣ꡳ뻣뉺 ꑇꅂꗸ띾꓀돎ꪺ냊뻷?(ꑀ) 뫮껄ꅇ?뫮껄ꅁ걏ꗸ띾뙩ꛦ꣖쇊ꪺ냊뻷꒧ꑀꅁ꣢깡꒽ꕱ롧ꗑ떲Ꙙ꧒늣ꗍꪺ썂ꕾꝑ꽱뎡ꗷꅁꑝ둎걏Ꙙ꣖ꯡꪺꕄ엩(entity)믹귈뙗륌Ꙙ꣖ꭥ귓ꝏ믹귈곛ꕛꪺ셠ꥍꅃ뫮껄걏귓엩믹귈ꪺ셠ꥍꑪ꧳ꅵꙐꙢꑀ귓ꯎ쎲ꑕꅶꪺ믹귈ꅃꙢ걙놡ꩰ꒧ꑕꅁ럭ꗀ꒽ꕱ때ꩫ엽걙ꑀ띾뎡Ꙣ샧륂ꑗ늣ꗍꝑ볭껉ꅁ굙녎룓뎡뽗ꗟ롧샧ꛓ라엣녯ꟳꚳ껄뉶ꅁ늣ꗍ룻낪ꪺꝑ볭ꅁ덯껉삳녎꣤꓀돎ꕘꕨꅃ (ꑇ) 롧샧껖ꓟ띾냈ꅇ ꗀ꒽ꕱ녎껖ꓟ띾냈꽤ꑕ꣓ꅁ녎꒽ꕱ꧒ꚳꑈꑏ룪랽뚰꒤Ꙣ껖ꓟ띾ꪺ롧샧ꅁ녎ꭄ껖ꓟ띾냈뎡꓀돎ꕘꕨꅁ엽ꙕꛛꪺ뫞뉺뚥뱨ꗾꑏ롧샧ꛛꑶ뻕ꪺ띾ꅁꚳ껉ꛓ라ꓱ땷녎ꦼꚹ롪Ꙣꑀ끟꣓녯 12
ꙮꅃꯜ궫굮ꪺꑀ쉉둎걏ꅁ꒽ꕱ냭꯹롧샧꣤돌보노ꪺ띾ꅁꛓ쇗ꝋ뿹뭾ꪺ뙩ꑊ꒣보노ꕈ꣤뉻ꚳ룪랽꿠ꑏ때ꩫ돐덹낪ꕛ믹귈ꪺ믢냬ꅃ녱Ꙩꢤ꓆꒧꒽ꕱꯜ깥꧶땯뉻꣬ꕌ귌덑놲ꑊꑀ귓궯ꗍꪺ띾ꅁ덯뫘놡녎맯꣤ꑀ교꧊ꪺꡍ떦늣ꗍ곛럭꒣ꝑꪺ뱶암ꅃ (ꑔ) 륌ꯗꪺꙨꢤ꓆ꅇ ꗸ띾굙꯹쓲ꙡ꣖쇊곛쏶ꭄ곛쏶ꪺ띾믢냬ꅁꯜꕩ꿠뻉교꒽ꕱ뚰많꧒뻖ꚳꪺ룪랽덑꓀뒲놼ꅁꕈ닕슴뵤돲ꪺ쉘깩꧒늣ꗍꪺꥸ릱엩꣮꒧때껄뉶뙗륌꣤ꖻꢭꙨꢤ꓆꧒늣ꗍꪺꝑ꽱ꅁꙁꕛꑗ꒣Ꙑ꒽ꕱ뚡ꪺꗸ띾ꓥ꓆뻣Ꙙ꒣꧶ꅁꕈ교꒽ꕱ셚껄ꑕ궰ꅁ꒽ꕱ믹ꙝꛓꑕ뙞ꅁ솫띬ꯜꕩ꿠띕꣓띕ꑪꅃꯜꙨ꒽ꕱ뎣걏귨뙽ꥬ꣖쇊꣤ꕌ꒽ꕱꅁ돌ꯡꑝ걏꓀돎ꢺ덑꣖ꑊꪺ꒽ꕱꅁꑪ뙱솫띬ꯡꪺ떲ꩇ둎걏ꅁ슶ꑆꑀꑪ냩ꑓꙞ꣬ꑆ귬쉉ꅃ덯뫘Ꙩꢤ꓆ꪺ껶뙏뮷뙗륌꣤꧒돐덹ꪺ믹귈ꅁ꣏Ꙩꢤ꓆꒽ꕱ녱Ꙩꢤ꓆띾꒤멍룪ꅁꙁꚸ녍ꩠ꧳돦ꑀ띾ꅃ (ꕼ) 껖ꓟ띾ꪺ믢냬비꣼띳쑶ꪧꪺꑊꭉꅇ ꗑ꧳늣띾쑶ꪧꪺ뱀꽐뙽꧱ꅁ꒽ꕱꪺ뫞뉺ꑀꖹ땯뉻ꛛꑶ껖ꓟ띾ꪺ믢냬비꣼쑶ꪧꪺꯂ꿙ꅁ결ꑆ뚰꒤ꓟꑏꩠ띎꣤듆ꓢꪺ껖ꓟ띾ꅁꖲ뚷쉜닦꣤ꕌꑷ롧꒣꣼앷ꫯꛓꕂ엽ꑈ꓀ꓟꪺꙨꢤ꓆겡냊ꅃ꙰AT&T(륱ꭈꩁ냈띾)ꅂSears (ꛊ덦륳냢띾)곒걏ꙝ결ꖻ띾비꣼띳ꑊꭉꪺ걄뻔ꅁꛓꑕꥷ닦싷ꭄ껖ꓟ띾롧샧ꪺꡍꓟꅃ (꒭) 떽롧샧셚껄ꅇ 굙녎롧샧셚껄꒣ꙮꪺ뎡땷녎ꖦ꽤Ꙣꗀ꒽ꕱꅁ깻껶뙏ꗸ띾ꪺ룪랽ꅆ굙룓뎡꓀돎ꚨ뽗ꗟꪺ꒽ꕱꅁꑀꓨ궱맯ꗀ꒽ꕱ듮뮴꒣ꓖ굴뻡ꅁꕴꓨ궱엽ꖦꛛ굴곕솫ꅁ뺬꿠싇ꚹ뻷라떽ꑬ꒽ꕱꪺ샧륂셚껄ꅃ 13
(꒻) ꢾꓮꭄ떽띎놵ꚬ(hostile takeover)ꅇ ꚳ껉귔ꅁꗸ띾뙩ꛦ꓀돎걏쓝꧳ꢾ뽭꧊ꪺ냊Ꝁꅁꑝ둎걏녎덑곝ꑗꪺ띾뎡꓀돎ꕘꕨꅁ꣏꒽ꕱꖢꕨ덑놵뫞ꪺꝬꓞꑏꅃ맪ꑗꅁ덯뫘ꢾ뽭ꮬꪺ꓀돎걏꒣ꝑ꧳꒽ꕱ뮷땯깩ꅁ곆ꛜ궰ꝃꑆꩆ앶꽱ꪺ믹귈ꅃ돌ꕄ굮ꪺꙝ꿀꿂뫩걏냲꧳뫞뉺결ꑆꢾꓮ롧샧앶ꥍ놱꣮앶덑귩맜ꪺꗟ돵꧒낵ꪺꡍ떦ꅁ맯꒽ꕱꖻꢭꩆꛓꢥꣃ때ꓓꑪꪺ산ꝕꅃ (ꑃ) ꭄꛛ쑀꧊ꪺꗸ띾꓀돎ꅇ 궱맯ꩫꯟꪺ뗴ꡍꛓ꒣녯꒣냵ꛦꗸ띾꓀돎ꪺ겡냊ꅃ돌뗛ꙗꪺ껗꣒둎걏AT&T꧳1974꙾비과냪ꕱꩫ뎡놱뙄꣤썢쉟륱ꭈꖫ돵룪랽ꅁꚹ셼륈ꚫ뮶뒵(antitrust)ꛦ결ꅁꣃ꧳1984꙾1ꓫ덑궢녎ꚹ륱ꭈꖨꑈ꓀돎3ꅆꕈ띌덮(Microsoft)꧳1998꙾ꗸ맏썢쉟쉳쓽뺹(explorer)ꖫ돵ꛓ덑ꕱꩫ뎡Ꝑꡍ꓀돎ꚨꑔ귓ꑬ꒽ꕱ4ꅃ (ꑋ) ꒽ꕱ믹귈덑ꝃ꛴ꅇ ꗑ꧳ꖫ돵룪ꑈꦹꦹ라ꝃ꛴Ꙩꢤ꓆ꪺ꒽ꕱꪺ뻣엩믹귈ꅃꙝꚹꅁ결ꑆ삱룉덯ꓨ궱ꪺ꿊ꖢꅁ돌ꙮꪺꓨꩫ둎걏녎걙띾뎡꒩ꕈ꓀돎ꕘꕨꅁ엽꣤뽗ꗟ샧륂ꅁ꙰ꚹꟳ꿠맼엣뻣엩꒽ꕱꪺ믹귈ꅁꛓ쏒꣩꓀꩒깶ꑝ라꒩ꕈ룻럇뵔ꪺ뗻꛴꣤믹귈ꅃ ꕴꕾꅁPatricia Anslinger, Dennis Carey, Kristin Fink, and Chris Gagnon (1997)쉫꿇ꕘꑔ쉉쏶꧳ꗸ띾꓀돎ꯡꗀ꒽ꕱ뭐ꑬ꒽ꕱ쏶ꭙ엜꒧궫굮ꪺ뱶암ꙝ꿀ꅇ?(ꑀ) ꒽ꕱ뫊뫞(Corporate governance) ?ꚳ쏶䅔♔ꪺ꓀돎겡냊ꅁ녎꧳ꑕꑀ뎹쑾쓲Ꝁꟳ뉠ꑊꪺ놴끑ꅃ???룓껗ꗘꭥ꒴ꗑ띌덮ꑗ뙄꒤ꅃ? 14
1.ꑬ꒽ꕱ뽗ꗟꪺ엩꡴ ꓀돎ꭥꅁꗀ꒽ꕱ꒣뒿쁵ꗽꛒ뱻룓띾뎡ꪺ룪군땥꒣궫뗸꣤ꚨ땯깩ꅆꙢ꓀돎ꯡꅁꑬ꒽ꕱ꒣ꙁꙖꗀ꒽ꕱ굴덤ꅁ뫞뉺뚥뱨뭐뢳라ꖲ뚷결ꛛꑶꪺꩆ굴덤ꅁ뭐ꗀ꒽ꕱ꒧뚡ꪺꗦ꧶ꦹ꣓ꕈꙘ곹ꣳ쒳ꪺꓨꚡ덗뵤ꅁꑀ꓁ꕈꩆ믹귈결쁵ꗽꛒ뙱ꅃ 2.Ꝭꓞ룪ꑈ꓀꩒깶ꪺꗘꗺ †ꚳ껉꒽ꕱꪺ믹귈덑ꝃ꛴걏냲꧳ꑬ꒽ꕱꪺ덺ꧺꯗ꒣꣎ꅁꡓꚳꓞ끟룪ꑈ꓀꩒깶ꪺꩠ띎ꅃ꓀돎ꯡꪺꑬ꒽ꕱ맯꧳룪ꑈ꓀꩒깶뚷ꕈ떽셚껄뗸결ꖫ돵뫊럾ꪺꓢ걱ꅁꪽ놵맯ꖫ돵ꪺꑈꑨ굴덤ꅃ (ꑇ) ꑈꑏ룪랽(Human resources) 1.뒣꣑ꟳ낪ꪺ뮤ꙝ ꗸ띾꓀돎ꯡꅁꕩ녎ꑬ꒽ꕱ셚껄ꫭ뉻떲Ꙙ뫞뉺뽅쁹뮤ꙝ군땥ꅁ꙰ꚹ맯ꗀꑬ꒽ꕱꕈ뫞뉺ꛓꢥ뎣꣼꽱ꅁ꣏뫞뉺꧒Ꝁ꧒결뎣ꕎꫭ뗛ꑬ꒽ꕱꪺ믹ꅃ굙ꑬ꒽ꕱꪺ뫞뉺곩뻖ꚳꑬ꒽ꕱꪺꗷꅁꕩ꿠라ꙝꚹꛓ쓫겹ꗀ꒽ꕱꪺꝑ꽱ꅃꙝꚹꅁꢾꓮ꒧륄ꭋ걏녎ꑬꗀ꒽ꕱꪺꗷꟴꙢꑀ끟ꅁꕈ뗸결맯귻ꑵ뽅쁹군땥ꪺ륓돒ꅃ?2.꽤ꛭ쁵ꡱꪺꑈꑾ 결ꝋ낪뚥뫞뉺덑돐꒽ꕱ꯵ꢤꕨ띳덝꒽ꕱꅁꗀ꒽ꕱꕈ꓀돎ꪺꓨꚡ꣓돐덹ꑀ띳ꑬ꒽ꕱꅁꕈ꣤결룓ꑬ꒽ꕱꪺ뫞뉺ꅁꣃꕂ뻖ꚳ룻Ꙩꗀ꒽ꕱꪺ룪랽ꕈ결ꓤ뒩ꅃꕴꕾꅁ꓀돎ꑬ꒽ꕱꕩ뗸결ꗀ꒽ꕱ냶빩낪뚥뫞뉺ꑈꑾꪺ듾ꗍꙡꅁ엽띳늣ꗍꪺ낪뚥롧뉺ꚳ뻷라ꕨ쏒ꧺ꣣ꚳ돦뽗롧샧ꑀ깡꒽ꕱꪺ꿠ꑏꅃ?3.때ꩫꝬꓞꭄ껖ꓟ띾ꪺꪺ낪뚥뫞뉺ꑈꑾ 15
ꚳ껉돌쁵ꡱꪺ뫞뉺곩Ᶎ뇦Ꙣꛛꑶ돌뻕ꪺ믢냬꒺ꑵꝀꅁ덯뫘냝썄곆ꛜꓱ꒣Ꙑ뎡뚡뻣ꙘꙢꑀ끟꧒늣ꗍꪺ뫮껄꣓녯궫굮ꅃ꣒꙰ꅁ뭳쏄꒽ꕱꕩꝬꓞꑀ걹ꪺꗍ꓆싥쏄ꑈꑾ뙩ꑊ껖ꓟ뎡ꅁ맯꧳릳늣ꭾꕝ룋ꛦ빐띾냈떥꣤ꕌ믢냬ꪺ녍띾ꑈꑾ엣녯꒣꧶덖녯ꅃꙝꚹꅁ꒣꙰녎ꭄ껖ꓟ띾냈뎡꓀돎ꕘꕨꓱꙘꙢꑀ끟꣓녯궫굮ꅃ?(ꑔ) 끝냈뿄룪(Finance) 1.결띳덝ꪺ꒽ꕱ뚰룪 ꗸ띾꓀돎ꕩꕈꙢ꒣껸꿓ꗀ꒽ꕱ곕빬ꪺꓨꚡꅁꕴꕾ둍띳ꪺ뫞륄ꕨ쑷뛒꧒믝ꪺ룪ꅃ?2.Ꝭꓞ띳ꪺ룪 †꓀돎ꯡꪺꑬ꒽ꕱꕩꕈꝬꓞ꽓ꥷꪺ룪ꑈ룪꧒뿗ꪺ꿂뫩롧샧ꪺ꒽ꕱꅁꛓꓰ믝꯹ꚳꗀ꒽ꕱꪺꗷꅃ 3.ꕈ뮤ꑈꪺ믹껦Ꝭꓞ띳ꪺ룪 ꗑ꧳쇴싃Ꙣꗀ꒽ꕱꪺꭏ앀돊ꑕꅁ꓀돎ꪺꑬ꒽ꕱꙢ끝냈샧륂ꪬꩰ뎣꒣냷덺ꧺꅃꙝꚹꅁ귨꓀돎ꕘ꣓라엽꓀꩒깶뗻꛴꣤믹귈ꝃ꛴ꅁꚹ껉ꕩꕈꕈ룻ꭋꥹꪺ믹껦ꓞ끟룪ꑈꪺꩠ띎ꅃ Patricia Anslinger, Sheila Bonini, and Michael Patsalos-Fox (2000)뭻결ꅁꗸ띾Ꙣ뙩ꛦ꓀돎껉삳ꩠ띎ꑕꙃ뚵ꅇ (ꑀ)꓀돎ꭥ삳낵룔뫉ꙡ떦늤꧊덗릺ꅁꕈꝋꖼ꣓ꗀꑬ꒽ꕱꪺ띾냈궫야ꛓ뻉교꒬곛쑶ꪧꅃ (ꑇ)맯샧륂겡냊ꚳꗦꑥꩁ냈ꅁ꙰꒬곛빐냢늣ꭾ떹ꗀꑬ꒽ꕱꅁ늾신믹껦ꪺ굱ꥷꯜ궫굮ꪺ쒳썄ꅁꖲ뚷맯꣢뭆뎣ꯜ꒽ꖭꅃ 16
(ꑔ)굙ꗀꑬ꒽ꕱ꒬곛ꗦ꧶ꪺ땻ꯗꙝ결덎ꅂꩁ냈ꅂꭾ땐떥룪랽Ꙁꓓ낪ꅁ꓀돎ꣳ쒳라굱녯ꓓ뷆싸ꛓ꣏꓀돎ꪺ믹귈덑ꭉ뭫ꅃ 뺨뫞꓀돎ꪺ띎맏걏결ꑆꭐ뙩뎡ꪺ뽗ꗟꅁꗀ꒽ꕱ뚷ꭏ꽤맯ꑬ꒽ꕱꪺꡍ떦뱶암ꑏꅁꕈꝋꑬ꒽ꕱꪺ떦늤맯ꯂ꿙ꗀ꒽ꕱꪺ롧샧ꅁ뵔ꭏ꣢ꓨ뎣꿠ꥍ뿓ꪺꙀꅁ덱녠ꗀ꒽ꕱ걏싇뗛ꗴꥒꗀ꒽ꕱꪺ뫞뉺뚥뱨뢳결ꑬ꒽ꕱꪺ뢳ꚨ귻꣓륆꣬ꑗ굺ꪺ놱꣮뱶암ꑏꅃ덯뫘뱶암ꑏ맯ꗀ꒽ꕱꪺꝑ꽱ꯜ궫굮ꅁ꣤뭐ꑬ꒽ꕱ뫲녋ꪺ덳떲ꕩ산ꚣ떽샧륂ꑗꪺꙘꝀꅁꢾꓮ띬깠ꗀ꒽ꕱꪺ떦늤ꛦ결ꅃ ꑔꅂꗸ띾꓀돎ꪺ쁵쉉?(ꑀ) ꗸ띾냵ꛦ꓀돎ꪺ겡냊맯꒽ꕱꕈꩆꛓꢥ걏ꝋ땼(tax-free)ꪺꅃ곛ꪺꅁ굙꒽ꕱ곩걏녎뇽꓀돎ꪺ띾뎡뙩ꛦꕘ냢ꅁꭨꯜꕩ꿠라덹ꚨ땼냈ꑗꪺ굴뛅ꅇ꒽ꕱꖻꢭꕩ꿠라맯ꕘ냢룪늣ꪺ룪ꖻꝑ녯뎡꓀뙩ꛦ뷒땼ꅆ꒽ꕱꩆꕩ꿠라맯빐냢ꝑ녯꧒ꓤꕉ꒧꽓ꝏꝑ뎡꓀뙩ꛦ뷒땼ꅃ?(ꑇ) 맪쏒곣ꡳ엣ꗜ꓀돎ꯡꪺꑬ꒽ꕱ뭐꒧ꭥꪺꗀ꒽ꕱꙢ냵ꛦꗸ띾꓀돎ꯡꪺ셚껄ꫭ뉻곒뙗륌ꖫ돵ꪺ륷듁ꅃꕩ꿠ꪺ귬ꙝ걏ꗸ띾꓀돎뽅땯ꑆ귻ꑵꪺꑵꝀ볧꿠ꅆꑬ꒽ꕱ덑궢궱맯샧륂ꚨꖻꪺꚳ껄뫞뉺ꝑ볭ꪺꚨꅆꙁꅁ둎걏ꑬ꒽ꕱ깥꧶ꩁ꧳ꅵ둉ꚳꣻꣻ꽧귔롳ꅶ(rich uncle syndrome)ꅇꗀ꒽ꕱ덱녠라삣ꑬ꒽ꕱꅁ꣏ꑬ꒽ꕱ때ꩫ깩뉻ꛛꑶꪺ볧ꑏꅁ뙩ꛓ뱶암ꑬ꒽ꕱꪺ샧륂셚껄ꫭ뉻ꅆꑬ꒽ꕱꑀꖹ꓀돎뽗ꗟꯡꅁ꣤쁵늧볧꿠라뙗륌ꗀ꒽ꕱꪺ뻣엩믹귈ꅃ귬꣓룓뎡ꪺ귻ꑵꙢ띳ꪺ꒽ꕱ녎ꚨ결띳ꪺ뫞뉺뢳라ꚨ귻ꅁꕌ귌ꪺ셾룪ꓴ럇돸쁶군릺녎뫲쎴꧳띳꒽ꕱꪺ샧륂셚껄ꫭ뉻ꅁ뺨뫞ꕌ귌녯뻇닟꙰꛳럭ꑀ귓뫙슾ꪺ뫞뉺ꑈ귻ꅁꕌ귌ꑝ셁룑꣬ꑀꗳꅁ둎걏ꕌ귌꒣ꕩ꿠ꙁ릳녱 17
ꭥꪺꑵꝀ멁ꯗꅁꙝ결ꕌ귌곩덑뷡꒩돌ꯡꪺꑀꚸ뻷라ꅁ녎ꛛꑶꇐ뫞뉺뚥뱨ꇐ귻ꑵꪺ궷쁉뭐돸륓뾣Ꙣꑀ끟ꅃ (ꑔ) ꗸ띾꓀돎ꕩꕈ녎ꑬ꒽ꕱꪺ볧Ꙣ믹귈(hidden value)깩앓ꕘ꣓ꅁ꣏꣤샧륂셚껄꒧ꫭ뉻ꟳꕛ덺ꧺ꓆ꅁꛓ꣤ꣴ뙖ꪺ셚껄ꫭ뉻녎쥠믝ꙁ뭐ꗀ꒽ꕱ꣤ꕌ띾뎡ꪺ셚껄떲ꙘꙢꙐꑀ끝냈돸ꫭ꒺ꅃ (ꕼ) ꗸ띾꓀돎ꯡꕩꕈ뙩뒣ꩀ꒽ꕱ뫊뫞꡴닎ꅁꣃ뱗ꕛ떦늤냵ꛦꪺ뱵꧊ꅁ꙰ꚹꕩ쇗ꝋ놼Ꙩ뱨뫞뉺ꪺ걆떦ꡍꥷꅁꗧꕩꝋꕨꙁ꣼꣤ꕌ띾뎡ꑬ꒽ꕱꪺ룪군땥낵룪ꖻ끴썂(capital rationing)ꪺ궭꣮ꅃꅁ귬ꖻ걏뭐ꗀ꒽ꕱꚨꙘꝀꪺ볒ꚡꅁꑝꕩ꿠Ꙣ꓀돎ꯡꅁ뗸ꗀ꒽ꕱ결쑶ꪧ맯ꓢꅁ뭐꒧롧샧곛Ꙑꪺ띾냈ꅃ (꒭) 덑꓀돎ꕘ꣓ꪺꑬ꒽ꕱꕩꝬꓞ띳ꪺ룪ꅃ덯룪ꕩ꿠룻낾ꙮ녎룪룪Ꙣ낪ꚨꮬ늣띾ꪺ꒽ꕱꅁ굙룓꒽ꕱ걏쓝꧳ꑀ귓곛맯ꚨ뵷멃ꪺꗀ꒽ꕱꅁꭨ룪녎ꙝꚹꛓꡂꅁ떴쇊뙒ꗀ꒽ꕱꪺ늼ꅁ뺨뫞ꖦ뻖ꚳꑀ귓룻Ꝭꓞ룪룪ꪺ뎡ꅃꗀ꒽ꕱ굙녎룓뎡꓀돎ꚨ뽗ꗟꪺꑬ꒽ꕱꅁ녎Ꝭꓞ룓쏾ꮬꪺ룪ꭥ꣓쇊뙒ꑬ꒽ꕱꪺ늼ꅁ녎ꟳꚳꝑ꧳ꗀꑬ꒽ꕱ꣢ꪺ룪쑷뛒ꅃ (꒻) 뒣ꩀꑬ꒽ꕱꪺꪾꙗꯗꅁ뱗ꕛ썮ꗺ뉶ꅃ럭꓀돎ꪺꑬ꒽ꕱ뎡Ꙣꗀ꒽ꕱ껉ꅁ꣤늣띾ꪺꚨꭥ뒺녠녠꒣꣼쏒꣩꓀꩒깶룪뷠쏑ꅁꕌ귌곩ꩠ띎꣬ꗀ꒽ꕱ뻣엩ꪺ땯깩ꚨꅆ굙ꑬ꒽ꕱ뎡덑꓀돎ꕘ꣓ꅁ쏒꣩꓀꩒깶룪라떹꒩룻Ꙩ쏶ꩠꪺ늴꾫ꅁ끷맯룓꒽ꕱꪺ늣띾쓝꧊꒩ꕈ룻Ꙩꪺ돸뻉(coverage)ꅁꕈ뒣ꩀ꒽ꕱꪾꙗꯗꅁꓞ끟쏒꣩꓀꩒깶룻Ꙩꪺ뾳뷬ꅃ (ꑃ) ꯘꗟ껖ꓟ띾ꪺ쑶ꪧ쁵뛕ꕈ늣ꗍ듁ꝑ볭ꅁ엽꒽ꕱ뚰꒤꣤뫞뉺ꅂ끝냈ꅂ덎ꪺ맪엩룪랽꿠ꑏꙢ돦ꑀ믢냬료ꚨꕜꙡ쑶ꪧꅃ덯뫘떦늤 18
ꙢꚨꟖ덴ꪺ띾꒤ꅁꙝ꒽ꕱ맪뷨ꪺ믝굮룪랽꿠ꑏꛓ엣녯궫굮ꅃ굙녎꒽ꕱ룪랽꓀뒲Ꙣ륌Ꙩꪺ띾롳ꅁꭨ깥꧶뻉교룪랽꒣ꢬꛓ때ꩫ쉘녩ꅁ꣤떲ꩇ둎걏꒽ꕱꪺ냵ꛦ껄뉶끉끨ꅃ ꕼꅂꗸ띾꓀돎ꪺ꿊쉉?(ꑀ)냵ꛦꗸ띾꓀돎꒣굙ꪽ놵ꕘ냢띾뎡룻Ꟗ덴샲녯꒽ꕱ꧒믝ꪺ뉻ꅁꕘ냢뇽꓀돎ꪺ뎡걏엜뉻돌Ꟗ덴ꪺꓨꩫꅆ곛ꙡꅁ럭덑뇳롭ꪺ뎡꿊ꓖ꣣돆ꚨꗟ돦뽗ꑬ꒽ꕱ꧒믝ꪺ덗볒샧륂뇸ꗳ껉ꅁ꓀돎ꪺ떦늤둎ꕩ꿠때ꩫ뚶ꝑ맪ꛦꣃ꣺녯뉻ꅁꕈ룑꒽ꕱ뽕곜꒧ꯦꅃ?(ꑇ)ꗸ띾꓀돎꧒ꕎꫭꪺ곩꒣륌걏녎ꗀ꒽ꕱꪺ룪늣Ꝁ궫띳걾땐ꛓꑷꅁꖻꢭꣃ꒣라돐덹ꕘꗴ꛳ꩆ앶꽱믹귈ꅃꙝꚹꅁꗸ띾꓀돎ꕩ꿠곩걏ꗸ띾궱셻엜ꪺꑀ귓뛊꓆뺯ꅁ꣤ꖻꢭꣃ꒣라ꭏ쏒ꑀꥷ꿠맯떲ꞽꇐ뙩꒽ꕱ뻣엩셚껄ꇐ녡꣓몡띎ꪺ떪껗ꅃ?(ꑔ)ꗸ띾꓀돎녎라꣏녯ꗸ띾떲Ꙙ꧒녡꣓ꪺ덗볒롧샙꒣둟꙳Ꙣꅁ꣏샧륂ꗸ띾ꪺꚨꖻ뱗ꕛꅆ뽗ꗟꪺꑬ꒽ꕱ굮궱맯썂ꕾꪺ뫞뉺뚥뱨빁ꗎꛛꑶ띾냈꧊뷨ꪺ룻낪꒧룪ꚨꖻ(cost of capital)ꅂ뛒뚰띳룪썂ꕾ늣ꗍꪺ땯ꛦꚨꖻꅂꕈ꣤ꕌꪺ롧녠꧊뙽ꓤ(overhead cost)떥ꅃꚹꕾꅁꗸ띾꓀돎맯뛅앶ꑈ라룻꒣ꝑꅁꙝ결Ꝁ결뛅앶ꧨꧣ뻡ꭏꪺ룪늣Ꙣ꓀돎ꯡꕩ꿠덑꓁돎녯꒣ꞹ뻣ꅆꕈ꓀돎ꯡꪺꑬ꒽ꕱ결돦ꑀ늣띾ꪺ꿂뫩롧샧ꅁ뛅앶ꑈꕩ꿠낾ꙮꑀ귓Ꙩꢤ꓆ꪺ꒽ꕱꕈꭏ믙ꕌꪺ뛅앶ꅁ곆ꛜꙢꚳ껉귔ꅁ뛅앶ꑈꕩ꿠끷맯ꗸ띾꓀돎ꪺꯅꝩ뒣ꕘꩫꯟ뙄덞ꅁꗸ맏ꓮ꓀돎겡냊ꪺ땯ꗍꅃ?(ꕼ)셣뷆ꪺ땼냈덂뉺낪썂ꪺꩫꯟ땻Ꟈ뭐라군덂뉺뙏ꗎꑝ꣏녯ꗸ띾냵ꛦ꓀돎껉ꅁ꿓뙏뫞뉺뚥뱨곛럭Ꙩꪺ껉뚡ꚨꖻꅃꓗ꣤걏결꣏ꗸ띾꓀돎닅Ꙙ땼냈럭ꞽꝋ땼ꪺ뇸ꗳꅁ꣤륌땻ꦹꦹ뚷뙏껉ꕢ꙾ꛜꑀ꙾ꕈꑗꅁ 19
ꕥꗎ뫞뉺뚥뱨곛럭Ꙩꪺ껉뚡뭐뫫ꑏꅃꚹꕾꅁꗸ띾꓀돎라꣏녯뻣엩꒽ꕱ꒧땼냈덗릺돠ꖢꅁ꣒꙰ꙕ띾뎡뚡ꪺ곕빬띬ꖢ때ꩫꙁ꒬곛ꧨ듮ꅁ뱗ꕛꕩ뷒땼꧒녯ꪺ엜늧꧊ꅃ?(꒭)ꗸ띾꓀돎ꕩ꿠덹ꚨꗀꑬ꒽ꕱ볧Ꙣꪺꝑ꽱뷄곰ꅁꗑ꒧ꭥꪺꙘꝀ볒ꚡ엜ꚨ맯ꗟꪺ꣢ꓨꅁ뭐ꗀ꒽ꕱꪺ쑶ꪧ맯ꓢꙘꝀꅁꟳ뱗ꕛꗸ띾꓀돎ꪺꝸ쏸ꯗꅃ?(꒻)Ꙣ꒽ꕱꪺ껖ꓟ띾꒤굙꒩ꕈ빁뙱ꪺꮫꪽ뻣Ꙙꕈ돐덹믹귈ꥍꯘꗟ쑶ꪧ쁵뛕ꕩ꿠걏믝굮ꪺꅁꛓ곩녍ꩠ꧳껖ꓟ돦ꑀ띾믢냬ꪺ꒽ꕱꅁꕩ꿠라뿹ꖢ돐덹믹귈뭳덹ꟳꙨꝑ볭ꪺ뻷라ꅁꙝ꣤때ꩫꕈ멢뇬Ꝁꗎ녎꒽ꕱꪺ룪랽뭐볧꿠ꦵꛜ꣤ꖦꪺ띾겡냊ꅃ?Patricia Anslinger, Dennis Carey, Kristin Fink, and Chris Gagnon (1997)뭻결ꗸ띾꓀돎Ꙣ걙놡ꑕꕩ꿠라뻉교ꖢ뇑ꅁꕝ걁꓀ꕘꪺ띾뎡쓝ꚨ뵷멃ꪺ늣띾ꅂꗀ꒽ꕱꡓ겣빁럭ꪺ뫞뉺ꑈꑾ뙩빮ꅂꕈ꒴ꦵꗎꗀ꒽ꕱꪺ끝냈ꗸ띾뫞뉺꣮ꯗ떥ꅃꙝꚹꅁꑀ귓ꚨꕜꪺꗸ띾꓀돎껗ꗳꅁ뚷꿠ꕒ꓀ꝑꗎ꧒ꚳꕩ녯ꪺ룪랽ꅁꕈꚳ귓뭐ꗀ꒽ꕱ녋꓁ꙘꝀꪺ뫞뉺많뚤ꅃꙝꚹꅁꗸ띾꓀돎꒣걏녎귓뇽꧟뇳ꪺ뎡뷦놼ꛓꑷꅁꛓ걏돐덹믹귈ꅁꭏ꽤띾뎡ꪺꓨꩫꅃ 20
닄ꑔ론?끬시?ꖻ론녎놴끑끬시ꪺ냲ꖻ뉺뷗ꅂ냊뻷ꕈ쁵꿊쉉ꅃ?ꑀꅂ냲ꖻ뉺뷗?끬시ꑓ뫙결꽓ꥷ볐ꪺ(Targeted Stock)ꅁꕄ굮걏ꗀ꒽ꕱꗎ꣓싪ꥷ꽓ꥷ띾뎡ꪺ곕빬셚껄샲ꝑ꿠ꑏ꧒땯ꛦꪺ늼ꅁꕈ걍룓뎡꽵ꖿꪺ볧Ꙣ믹귈ꅃ끬시돌ꚭ걏Ꙣ1984꙾ꗑ과냪덱ꗎꡔꢮ꒽ꕱ(GM)결ꑆ쇊꣖ꑀ깡륱ꑬ룪껆꡴닎꒽ꕱ(EDS)ꛓ땯ꛦ5ꅁ꒧ꯡꭨꙢ과냪륱ꭈ늣띾꒤ꓱ룻깥꧶곝꣬끬시ꪺ뱶ꑬꅃꗑ꧳ꑪꮬ륱ꭈ띾ꪺ뛇닎껖ꓟ륱ꭈꩁ냈ꉷ꙰냪믚ꅂ덾ꕈꖫ꒺륱룜떥띾냈ꉷ쓝꧳곛럭ꚨ보ꕂꚨ뵷멃ꪺ띾ꅁ걏멘ꑕꪺ때뵵덱ꭈ(Wirelessꅁꝙꑀ꿫ꪺꛦ냊륱룜띾냈)ꅂ뫴믚뫴룴볆뻚벷놵(Internet access)떥ꭨ쓝꧳낪ꯗ룪ꖻ녋뚰ꕂꚨꢳ덴ꪺ띳뾳륱ꭈ띾ꅃꑀ꿫ꪺ룪ꕈ쏒꣩꓀꩒깶녎꣤뗸결샲ꝑ쎭ꥷꅂ뛇닎ꪺ륱ꭈ꒽ꕱꅁ꣤믹ꙝ때ꩫ걍ꕘ낪ꚨ뎡ꪺ꽵ꖿ믹귈ꛓ덑ꝃ꛴ꅃꙝꚹꅁ덯뫘꒽ꕱꕩ싇뗛땯ꛦ끬시ꪺꓨꚡꕈ맼엣ꕘ덯뎡ꪺ볧Ꙣ믹귈ꅃ ꑀ꿫꣓뮡ꅁ끬시ꚳꑕꙃ둘쉉꽓꧊ꅇ (ꑀ)끬시ꪺ꯹ꚳꕩꗎ늼앶꣓ꡍꥷꚳ쏶뻣귓꒽ꕱꪺ쒳썄ꅃ늼앶ꪺ볆뙱ꕩ냏꓀결ꅇ 1. ꥷ늼앶(Fixed Voting Rights)ꅇ늼앶ꪺ볆뙱Ꙣ끬시땯ꛦ껉ꭋꥷ꒣엜ꅃ꙰GM-EDS(1984)ꅂGM-Hughes(1985)ꅂAT&T-Liberty Media(1999)ꅂAT&T-Wireless(2000)ꅃ 2. 엜냊늼앶(Variable Voting Rights)ꅇ늼앶ꪺ볆뙱걏ꗀ꒽ꕱ뭐 5 EDS꧳1996꙾ꛛGMꞹꗾ꓀돎ꕘꕨꚨ뽗ꗟꑬ꒽ꕱꅃ 21
끬시뎡ꪺ곛맯ꖫ돵믹귈ꛓꥷ듁뷕뻣ꅁꣃꭄꥷ꒣엜ꅃ꙰USX-Marathon(1991)ꅂUSX-Delhi(1992)ꅂSprint FON-Sprint PCS(1998)ꅃ 3. ꡓꚳ늼앶ꅃ꙰DLJ-DLJ Direct(1998)ꅃ (ꑇ)끬시꒴쓝꧳ꗀ꒽ꕱꪺꑀ뫘꽓ꝏ늼ꅁꛓꭄ룓뎡ꪺ뒶덱ꅁꙢ꓀쏾ꑗ꒴쉫꧳뒶덱ꪺꑀ뫘ꅃꙝꚹꅁ끬시ꣃꭄꪽ놵ꕎꫭ맯끬시뎡룪늣ꪺ뷐ꡄ앶곕빬꓀겣ꪺ앶ꝑꅁꛓ걏ꕎꫭ맯뻣귓꒽ꕱꪺ꧒ꚳ앶ꝑ꽱ꅃ냲ꖻꑗ꣓뮡ꅁ끬시늼ꕩ뗸결ꑀ뫘꽓ꝏꝑꅁꓱ꣒꓀끴떹귬ꗀ꒽ꕱꩆꅆꗧꕩꕈ뇄꣺ꫬꚸ꒽뙽땯ꛦ(IPO)ꪺꚡ녎꣤빐냢ꛜ쏒꣩ꖫ돵ꑗꅃ (ꑔ)끬시뎡꒣꣣Ꙙꩫꪺꩫꯟꙡꛬꅁꝙ꒣꣣ꚳꩫꑈꪺ룪껦ꅃꙢꩫꯟꑗ꣓뮡ꅁ끬시뎡ꪺ앶ꝑ롱냈ꛦ꣏뎣걏ꗑꗀ꒽ꕱ뢳라꣓낵ꑀ꓁ꪺꡍꥷꅃ (ꕼ)끬시뎡ꪺ곕빬ꝑ뭐ꗀ꒽ꕱ꓀ꝏ군뫢ꅁ꣤곕빬곆ꛜ걏끬시뎡ꝑ꓀겣ꪺ냲슦ꅃꙝꚹꅁꗀ꒽ꕱ뭐끬시뎡ꪺꝑ걆떦뭐ꝑꓤꕉ뉶라ꚳ꧒꒣Ꙑꅃ (꒭)꒽ꕱ꒺뎡뎡뚡ꪺꗦ꧶뇸ꗳ(Intra-company dealings)ꅁꕈ곕빬ꅂ룪늣ꥍ굴뛅떥ꪺ꓀끴귬ꭨ뚷Ꙙ뉺ꙡ룼ꧺ꧳끝냈돸ꫭꥍ꒽뙽뮡ꧺ껑꒺ꅁꕈ뫻꯹뎡뚡ꪺꝑ꽱ꣳ뷕ꅁ쇗ꝋ뷄곰ꪺ늣ꗍꅃ ꑇꅂ땯ꛦ끬시ꪺ냊뻷?(ꑀ)룪뛒뚰ꅇ?끬시굙ꕈꫬꚸ꒽뙽땯ꛦ꣓덂뉺ꅁꭨ귝꣣Ꙗ룪ꖻꖫ돵뚰룪ꪺꕜ꿠ꅁꙝꚹ맯꧳ꯦ꧳쑷놹띳룪ꪺ띳뾳띾뎡룻ꚳꝑꅃꚹꕾꅁ끬시 22
뎡ꕩꕈꝑꗎꗀ꒽ꕱ룻꣎ꪺ룪ꖻ떲멣ꥍ룪늣덗볒ꛓꕈ룻꣎ꪺ뛅ꭈ뗻떥꣺녯ꚨꖻ룻ꝃꪺ굴뛅룪ꅃ?(ꑇ)돐덹뗪샀ꪺ꿂뫩롧샧ꪺ꒽ꕱꮬ멁ꅇ †럭뇽땯ꛦ끬시ꪺ꽓ꥷ띾뎡롧샧셚껄ꫭ뉻ꥍꚨ볧ꑏ쁵꧳Ꙑ띾꒽ꕱ껉ꅁꚹ셼ꕩ돐덹ꕘꑀ귓뗪샀ꪺ꿂뫩롧샧ꪺ꒽ꕱꮬ멁ꅆ굙샧륂셚껄뢨ꯡ늣띾ꖭꞡꅁ땯ꛦ끬시ꕩ꿠라듮띬룓뎡ꪺ믹귈ꅁ덯껉삳녎ꖦ꓀돎ꕘꕨꅁꛓꭄꭏ꽤Ꙣꗀ꒽ꕱ꒺ꅃ?
ꑔ)땼냈뮤ꙝ ꗑ꧳끬시꒴뗸결ꗀ꒽ꕱ뒶덱ꪺꑀ뫘ꅁ걇곛룻꧳ꗸ띾꓀돎뚷뷒땼ꛓꢥꅁ끬시ꪺ땯ꛦꕩꕈ늣ꗍꯜꑪꪺ땼냈뮤ꙝꅁꝙ결땼냈띬ꖢꯡꧨ(tax-loss carryforwards)ꪺ륂ꗎꅁꕩꕈꙢ늣ꗍ샧륂솫띬ꪺ놡ꑕ듮뮴땼냈ꪺ굴뻡ꅆꕈꑀ귓뎡ꪺ뉢샧륂띬ꖢꕩꕈꚩꧨꕴꑀ뎡ꪺ뷒땼곕빬ꅃꙝꚹꅁꚳ쏶땼냈ꑗꪺꛒ뙱Ꙩꓖ라뱶암꣬ꗸ띾ꡳ뎺걏뿯뻜결꽓ꥷ띾뎡땯ꛦ끬시ꅁ쇙걏냵ꛦ꓀돎겡냊ꅃ꙰. West뒿꛴군결꣤뎡MediaVision Group땯ꛦ끬시ꛓꭄ꓀돎ꕘꕨꕩ론곙녎꫱$2믵과꒸ꪺ땼(1995)6ꅃ (ꕼ)돐덹ꚬ쇊ꪺꗦ뒫덦맴(acquisition currency) †꒽ꕱꕩ싇뗛끬시늼꣓륆ꚨ꣖쇊ꪺ떦늤꧊ꛒ뙱ꅁꝑꗎ앶ꗦ뒫(exchange offers)ꪺꓨꚡ뒫녯덑꣖꒽ꕱꪺ앶ꅁꕈꞹꚨ맯룓꒽ꕱꪺꚬ쇊륌땻ꅃ꣒꙰GM결ꑆꚬ쇊EDS뭐Hughesꛓ땯ꛦ끬시ꅃꚹꕾꅁ끬시ꪺ돐덹ꕩꕈꕛ녪맯뫞뉺ꪺ녍ꓟ롧샧꒧륓ꑵ꣣ꅁ꣏꣤ꟳ뷦ꑏ결룓뎡ꑵꝀꅃ 6 US Westꯡ꣓꧳1998꙾녎MediaVision Group꓀돎ꕘꕨꚨ뽗ꑬꗟ꒽ꕱꇐMediaOneꅃ 23
ꑔꅂ땯ꛦ끬시ꪺ쁵쉉?(ꑀ)끬시꣏녯꒽ꕱ꣣ꚳꙨꢤ꓆롧샧ꕈ꿂뫩롧샧ꪺꙘꚨ꧊뷨ꅃ끬시ꪺ륂ꗎ꣏녯꒽ꕱ뫞뉺Ꙣ꒣ꖢ꣤맯꒽ꕱ놱꣮앶ꪺ놡ꩰꑕꛓ꒴꿠샲녯꓀돎ꪺꙮ덂ꅁ꣒꙰Ꙩꢤ꓆ꚩ(diversification discount)ꪺ듮ꓖꅁꕈ룻꿠ꓞ끟ꖫ돵ꥍ룪ꑈꪺꭃ럽ꅃ (ꑇ)ꗸ띾꒴ꕩ녎돌꣣ꚨ뭐샲ꝑ꿠ꑏꪺ뎡ꭏ꽤Ꙣꗀ꒽ꕱ꒺ꅁꣃ꣏녯끬시띾뎡ꪺ끝냈떦늤륂Ꝁꟳꚳ뱵꧊ꅃꙝꚹꅁ뺨뫞룓뎡ꪺ룪늣ꣃ때꽵ꖿꪺꛛꗀ꒽ꕱ꓀싷ꕘꕨꅁ끝냈돸ꫭ뭐곕빬뎡꓀꒴뭐ꗀ꒽ꕱ꓀ꝏ군뫢ꅃꚹꕾꅁ꒽ꕱ꒺뎡ꪺ룪늣Ꙣ뎡꒧뚡ꪺ늾신ꑝ룻깥꧶냵ꛦꅃ (ꑔ)Ꝭꓞꢺ맯ꗀ꒽ꕱꡓ뾳뷬ꅁ맯땯ꛦ끬시ꪺ꽓ꥷ띾뎡ꚳ뾳뷬ꪺ룪ꑗꅁꕈ보노룓늣띾꒧룪믈ꛦ깡뭐쏒꣩꓀꩒깶ꪺꩠ띎ꥍ돸뻉ꅁ꣏룓뎡ꪺ끝냈덺ꧺꯗꥍ떦늤뉍뒷ꯗꟳ꣎ꅁꕈ샲녯ꟳꖿ뵔ꪺ뗻믹ꅃ (ꕼ)끬시ꪺ땯ꛦ꣏녯뫞뉺뽅쁹뮤ꙝ군땥녯ꕈ땯뒧륂ꗎꅁꣃ뇀냊뫞뉺맯룓꽓ꥷ띾뎡닕슴ꪺ덤ꗴ셁룑뉠ꯗꅃꕴꕾꅁ끬시띾뎡ꪺ귻ꑵ끴군땥ꅁ꣏녯꣤믹ꫭ뉻ꟳ꿠ꮴꙘ꣤샧륂셚껄ꫭ뉻ꅁꚳ뽅쁹귻ꑵꪺ껄ꩇꅃ (꒭)ꗀ꒽ꕱ맯땯ꛦ끬시ꪺ띾뎡꣣ꚳ떴맯ꪺ놱꣮앶뭐롧샧앶ꅁ끬시싪ꥷꪺ뎡ꣃꭄ뽗ꗟ륂Ꝁꅁ꒴쓝꧳ꗀ꒽ꕱ놱꣮앶꧒뫞쇒ꅃꚹꕾꅁ끬시뎡ꕩꙐ껉꣼ꗀ꒽ꕱ꧒늣ꗍꪺ덗볒롧샙ꅁꙀꗸ띾뚰많룪랽ꅁ꣒꙰덎곣땯(R&D)ꅂꑈꑏ룪랽ꅂ궰ꝃ귻ꑵ뻇닟ꚱ뵵ꅂꗦ꧶뙏ꗎꥍ롧녠꧊뙽ꓤꪺ론곙떥ꅃ (꒻)뱗ꕛ맯꣖쇊놵뫞ꪺꢾ뽭꿠ꑏꅃ끬시뎡ꪺ뫞뉺ꣃ때앶뭐꣤ꕌ꒽ 24
ꕱ낵꣖쇊꒧쏾ꪺ뷍Ꝑꡍꥷꅁ덯걏ꡍꥷ꧳ꗀ꒽ꕱ뢳라ꪺꓢꑗꅆꚹꕾꅁ굙ꚳ곰얧(raiders)맯끬시뎡늣ꗍ뾳뷬ꅁꕩ꿠ꮪ꧳ꗀ꒽ꕱ뚰많ꪺꓤ뒩ꛓꖴ껸ꚬ쇊ꪺ띎꧀ꅃ (ꑃ)ꭏ꽤꒽ꕱ앶떲멣뷕뻣ꪺ뱵꧊ꅁ띎ꝙꗀ꒽ꕱꙢ땯ꛦ끬시ꯡꅁ꣣ꚳꡍꥷ룓뎡ꖼ꣓걏ꝟ냵ꛦ꓀돎ꪺ뿯뻜ꅃꗀ꒽ꕱꑝꕩ꧳ꖼ꣓녎ꖫ돵ꑗꪺ끬시뙒Ꙟꅁ꯬둟꣬끬시땯ꛦꭥꪺ끝냈떲멣ꅆ걏꓀돎ꚨ뽗ꗟꪺꑬ꒽ꕱꅃ굙Ꙣꑀ뙽ꥬ둎냵ꛦꗸ띾꓀돎ꅁꭨ때ꩫꙁꙞ둟ꚨ꒽ꕱꪺ띾뎡ꅃ ꕼꅂ?땯ꛦ끬시ꪺ꿊쉉?(ꑀ)끬시ꩆ맯룓뎡ꪺ룪늣꒣꣣ꚳꪽ놵뷐ꡄ앶ꅁꙝꚹꅁ굮꣺녯룓뎡룪늣ꪺ놱꣮앶ꖲ뚷샲녯뻣귓꒽ꕱꪺ늼놱꣮앶ꅁꛓꭄ곩ꚳ룓끬시뎡ꪺ늼앶ꅃꚹꕾꅁꗀ꒽ꕱꪺ굴뛅뷐ꡄ앶ꗑ끬시ꪺ뎡꣤ꕌ띾뎡ꪺ곕빬ꙀꙐ굴뻡ꅁꑝ둎걏맯ꗀ꒽ꕱ꣤ꕌ뎡ꪺ굴뛅뷐ꡄꯅꝩ라꣏녯끬시뎡ꪺ룪늣ꥍ샲ꝑ꿠ꑏ뎣라비꣼띬깠ꅁ곛룻꧳꿂뫩롧샧ꪺ꒽ꕱꛓꢥꅁ덯녎꣏녯룪ꑈꯜ쏸곛ꭈ끬시걏ꑀ귓Ꝭꓞꑈꪺ룪ꅁꑝꙝꚹ끬시늼라룻꿂뫩롧샧꒽ꕱꪺ늼믹귈꣓녯ꝃ(discount)ꅃ (ꑇ)끬시ꪺ띾뎡Ꙣꗀ꒽ꕱ뢳라ꪺ놱꣮ꑕꅁꕩ꿠룻때ꩫꞹꗾꙡꙝ삳ꖫ돵ꪺ쑶ꪧꛓꕒ꓀륂ꗎ꣤떦늤ꅃ (ꑔ)뱗ꕛ뫞뉺뭐ꩆ뚡ꕎ뉺냝썄ꪺꝑ꽱뷄곰ꅁꕈ룪ꖻ끴썂ꪺꡍꥷꇐꝙꑀ귓뎡꓀끴띕Ꙩ룪띎ꝙꕴꑀ귓뎡꓀끴꣬룻ꓖꪺ룪ꅃꗀ꒽ꕱ뢳라ꖲ뚷궱맯꣢닕ꕈꑗꪺꩆꅁꣃ굴덤ꣳ뷕ꩆ롳꒧뚡맯뫞뉺ꪺꝑ꽱뷄곰ꅁ곆ꛜ꒬곛ꪺꝑ깠쏶ꭙꅃ꙰ꑀ닕ꩆꕩ꿠낾ꙮ꒽ꕱꥷ듁ꓤꕉ뉻ꝑꅁꛓꕴꑀ닕ꩆꕩ꿠낾ꙮꝑꪺꙁ룪걆떦ꅁꕈ 25
꣼룪ꖻ뱗귈ꪺ볖뷬ꅆꙁꅁꩆ뚡ꕩ꿠ꙝ결뫞뉺맯꒣Ꙑ뎡ꪺ궫뗸땻ꯗꛓ뭐뢳라꓀깸슧ꅁ꣒꙰끝냈룪꣑떹ꅂꑈꑏ룪랽뷕끴떥맪뷨ꪺꓤ뒩땻ꯗ쁵ꗽꚸꟇꅃ곆ꛜ꣤ꕌꪺꝑ깠쏶ꭙꑈꅁ꙰뛅앶ꑈꅁ귻ꑵ떥ꪺꣳ뷕덂뉺ꅃ덯ꕎ뉺냝썄ꪺ꙳Ꙣ라꣏녯뢳라꽨꧳삳ꕉꣳ뷕ꅁꕈꖭ뿅꒧뚡ꪺꝑ꽱뷄곰ꅃ (ꕼ)ꗀ꒽ꕱꖲ뚷ꛒ뙱꣬꣤쑶ꪧ맯ꓢ싇ꚬ쇊끬시늼ꪺ뫞륄ꛓ륅ꛦ꣤놵ꚬꪺꗘꪺꅁ룓뎡뫞뉺뭐쏒꣩꓀꩒깶돸뻉ꩆꪺ삣ꑏꑕ덑궢ꞹꗾꙡ꓀돎ꕘꕨꚨ뽗ꗟꑬ꒽ꕱꅃ (꒭)끬시뎡ꪺ믹귈뗻꛴라ꝃ꧳Ꙑ띾쑶ꪧꅁ귬ꙝꕝ걁꯹ꚳ맯룓뎡ꪺ룪늣뷐ꡄ앶ꥍ때ꪽ놵늼앶곛룻꧳뒶덱ꩆꪺ꒣ꖭ떥ꅆ굴뛅ꡄ쁶앶ꪺ뚶ꛬꚸ꧳뒶덱ꅆꝑꓤꕉꪺ꓀끴ꗑꗀ꒽ꕱ뢳라ꡍꥷꅆꕈ꒽ꕱ꒺뎡뎡꒧뚡ꪺꗦ꧶뇸ꗳ떥ꅁ덯라늣ꗍ꧒뿗ꪺ뗻믹ꚩ(valuation discount)ꅃ 26
닄ꑔ뎹†?AT&Tꗸ띾궫뻣 닄ꑀ론?ꗾ뉹륱ꭈ늣띾뭐ꖼ꣓땯깩쇍뛕?륱ꭈ늣띾꣣ꚳ룪녋뚰ꅂ덎녋뚰ꅂ덗볒롧샙ꕈ꒽Ꙁ꧊뷨떥꽓꧊ꅁꕀ곉ꙕ냪ꪺ륱ꭈ띾ꑪꙨ쓝꧳뽗꧊ꪺ꒽샧띾ꅁ놩Ꙣ륱ꭈꛛꗑ꓆ꕈ덱끔덎ꪺ뙩ꡂꑕꅁ꣏녯륱ꭈ덱끔늣띾ꚨ결쑾륱뢣룪끔늣띾ꯡꅁꚨ결ꑕꑀꩩꪺꕄ걹ꧺ걐늣띾ꅃꖻ론녎끷맯ꗾ뉹륱ꭈ늣띾Ꝁꑀ랧ꩰ꧊ꪺ뮡ꧺꅁ싇ꗑ맯륱ꭈ늣띾ꪺ셁룑ꅁ덜ꕩ맯냪ꕾꑪꮬ륱ꭈ꒽ꕱꙢꚹ믢냬꒤꧒Ꝁ꒧뻣Ꙙ꣖쇊꓀돎겡냊뭐냊뻷ꅁꚳꟳ뉍랡ꪺ뭻쏑ꅃ?ꑀꅂ?륱ꭈ늣띾ꪺ꒶닐ꅇ?륱ꭈ늣띾낣ꑆꑀ꿫꧒뿗ꪺ륱룜꒧ꕾꅁꥼꕝꝴ덜Ꙩꗑ륱ꭈ꧒구ꗍꕘ꣓ꪺ늣ꭾꅃꙝꚹꅁ뱳롱ꪺ륱ꭈ늣ꭾ삳ꕝ걁ꑕ궱둘귓쏾ꮬꅇ?(ꑀ) 때뵵덱끔(wireless) Ꙣ때뵵덱끔믢냬꒤ꅁꛦ냊륱룜걏꣏ꗎ돌뱳ꅂꖼ꣓ꚨ볧ꑏꑝ돌꣼궫뗸ꪺꅁꙝꚹꛦ냊륱룜ꑷꚨ결ꕩꥍꚳ뵵륱룜꓀깸슧ꪺ덱끔ꑵ꣣ꅃꛓꖼ꣓ꪺꓢ뻷ꅂ곛쏶덝돆ꪺ믝ꡄꚨꭨ뗸ꖼ꣓닄ꑔꕎꛦ냊륱룜냝ꖫꯡꅁꙕꖫ돵꧒뒣꣑ꪺ뱥쁗끴깍ꩁ냈걏ꝟꚨ보ꛓꥷꅆꛓꛦ냊륱룜ꗑ꾶쁗ꢫꙖ뱥쁗ꅁꣃꢫꙖ때뵵뫴믚뫴룴ꅂ때뵵볆뻚ꩁ냈삳걏ꑪ뛕꧒쇍ꅃꖼ꣓ꪺꛦ냊륱룜녎ꕩꗎ꣓ꑗ뫴ꅂꚬ땯뙬ꗳꅂ뱶릳뛇끥ꅁ뒣꣑ꚳ뵵륱룜꧒때ꩫ륆꣬ꪺꭋꝑꓴ럇ꅃ걇Ꙣ곬땯깩ꛛꗑ꓆ꪺ았꣏ꑕꅁ륱ꭈꅂ뫴룴ꅂ때뵵덱ꭈꕈ륱뢣결ꕄꪺ룪끔곬ꅁ덶몥Ꙙ걹ꅁWAPꓢ뻷둎걏ꑏ뙱뛗뚰ꪺ꣥ꮬꕎꫭꅃꛜ꧳닄ꑔꕎꛦ냊륱룜둎걏쓝꧳뱥쁗ꛦ냊덱ꭈ꡴닎ꅁ뒣꣑ꗎꓡꗾꓨꛬꙨ둃엩뭹궵볆뻚ꩁ냈ꅁꙝꚹ때뵵뱥쁗ꑗ뫴녎ꚨ결ꖼ꣓ꛦ냊덱끔ꪺ쇍뛕ꥍꕄ걹ꅃ 27
꿷ꕈꫭ3-1슲굺ꛦ냊륱룜ꪺ땯깩륌땻ꅃ ꫭ3-1?ꛦ냊륱룜땯깩랧굺 닄ꑀꕎꛦ냊륱룜 닄ꑇꕎꛦ냊륱룜 닄ꑔꕎꛦ냊륱룜 AMPS(쏾ꓱꚡ) GSM(볚덗)ꅂW-CDMAꅂ꡴닎?PDC(ꓩ덗)ꅂCDMA2000?CDMA(과덗)?뛇뿩덴ꯗ?N/A -115Kbps 2Mbps 슲돦뭹궵뛇뿩?낪룑꩒ꯗ뗸끔ꅂꙨ덱끔ꩁ냈뭹궵ꅂ뛇꽵ꅂ?E-mailꅂ볆뻚뛇뿩둃엩ꅂ낪깥뙱볆뻚 뛇뿩?룪껆꣓랽ꅇꖻ곣ꡳ뻣뉺 (ꑇ) ꥷ뫴룴 ꝙ뛇닎ꪺ륱룜뵵룴ꅁ걏룪ꖻ녋뚰ꅂꑈꑏ녋뚰ꪺ륱ꭈ띾ꅁꕝꝴꚳꖫ룜ꅂ덾ꕈ냪믚륱룜떥띾냈ꅃꗑ꧳뫴ꪺ뒶뉶ꑷ둘꫱릡ꥍꅁꙝꚹꖼ꣓ꪺꚨ둔ꯗ곛럭ꚳ궭ꅃꙝꚹꅁ뫴띾낣ꑆ꯹쓲뒣꣑뛇닎뭹궵륱룜ꪺꩁ냈ꣃ뫻꯹ꖫ돵ꕥꚳ뉶ꕾꅁꣃ녎뽮랥뙩굸꣤ꕌ륱ꭈ구ꗍꪺ곛쏶띾냈ꅁ듂Ꙗ뻣Ꙙ뱥쁗볆뻚덱끔ꩁ냈ꪺꓨꙖ땯깩ꅁꑾꚳ뻷라뭐걊ꚳꪺ륱ꭈ띾쑶ꪧꅃꚹꕾꅁ뫴띾ꣃ꯹쓲곣땯띳덱끔덎ꅁꕈꟳꝃꚨꖻꅂꟳ낪뛇뿩덴ꯗ뭐덱끔ꭾ뷨뒣꣑ꯈꓡ꣏ꗎꅃ (ꑔ) 뫴믚뫴룴 ꕩꗎ꣓뛇끥룪껆ꅂ뭹궵ꅂ뱶릳떥볆뻚룪끔ꅁ뫴룴뭐륱ꭈꪺ떲Ꙙꅁꑪꑪꙡ뱶암꣬뛇닎륱ꭈ띾ꅁꓗ꣤걏릳AT&T덯뫘ꕈꦹ썢쉟냪믚뭐덾륱ꭈ놵쓲ꖫ돵ꪺ뱴냓ꅃ껚뻚굞냪곣ꡳ뻷멣Consultancy Tarificat Ltd. 닎군엣ꗜꅁAT&Tꪺ냪믚덾륱룜ꚬꑊ녎라ꙝ뫴룴륱ꭈꛓ띬ꖢ 28
믵꣬믵과꒸7ꅃꙝꚹꅁ뫴믚뫴룴ꪺꕘ뉻ꅁ꣏녯륱ꭈꖨꑈ꒣뺨궱맯Ꙑ띾ꪺ쑶ꪧꅁ뉻Ꙣꑓꚳ덜Ꙩ꣤ꕌꪺ뫴룴ꩁ냈꣑삳냓(ISP, Internet Services Provider)ꚳ뵵륱뗸쁗륄꒽ꕱ(cable operator)쑶곛띭궹륱ꭈꖫ돵ꪺꑪ믦ꅁꙝꚹꅁ륱ꭈ꒽ꕱꕩ꿠궱셻뻣귓뚰많ꪺ녙룑ꅁ둍ꡄꙝ삳륱ꭈ곬ꪺ롽ꡂꛓꚳ꧒ꛦ냊ꅃꗘꭥ뫴믚뫴룴뛇뿩ꪺ둃꒶ꕩ꓀결꣢뫘ꅇꑀ뫘걏왬뵵볆뻚(cable modem)ꅁꕈꚳ뵵륱뗸ꪺꙐ뙢륱왬결꒶궱ꅁ롧샧ꑪ뎣Ꙑ껉롧샧둃엩꒺깥쁗륄꣑삳냓(media content)ꅆꕴꑀ결볆ꛬꗎꓡ끪룴(DSL)ꅁꝑꗎ뛇닎륱룜뵵꣓뛇뿩ꅃ껚뻚Renaissance Worldwide곣ꡳ뻷멣닎군ꅁꛜ2004꙾ꗾ과녎ꚳ20%ꪺ깡깸녎라꣏ꗎ뱥쁗뫴룴ꅁ꣤꒤%ꪺ깡깸녎놵왬뵵볆뻚뻷ꅁ9%ꪺ깡깸녎꣏ꗎ볆ꛬꗎꓡ끪룴ꅃꙝꚹꅁ뫴믚뫴룴ꪺꕘ뉻녎꣏녯륱ꭈ늣띾ꗍ멁ꕁ엜ꅁ뫴믚뫴룴롧샙껄뉶ꪺꯊꕝ뛇뿩ꅁꞹꗾ닅Ꙙ륱ꭈ뵵룴ꪺ걊ꚳꕜ꿠ꅁ꣤꧒늣ꗍ꒧때뮷ꖱꦡꪺ뱶암ꑏꑷ엜ꗾ뉹륱ꭈ늣띾ꪺ궱뮪ꅃ (ꕼ) ꗺ엖뵵룴(fiber) ꗺ엖걏뛇뿩뙱돌ꑪꅂ덴ꯗ돌Ꟗꪺ뱥쁗뫴룴꡴닎ꅁ꣣ꚳꪽ깼ꑰꅂ궫뙱뮴ꅂꟷ껆꣓랽싗둉떥꽓꧊ꅁꕂꗺ엖ꪺ뛇뿩덴ꯗ걏왬뵵ꪺ400롕궿ꅃꙝꚹꅁ쁈뗛ꗾ뉹륱ꭈꛛꗑ꓆ꪺ땯깩ꅁ맯ꗺ엖곛쏶늣ꭾ믝ꡄ띕껯꓁ꅁ걇결ꙝ삳ꑪ뙱셮궵ꅂ뱶릳ꥍ볆뻚룪껆ꪺ뛇뿩ꅁ빑덝ꗺ엖ꣃꝑꗎꗺ엖꣓낵결뱥쁗뛇뿩ꪺꑵ꣣ꑷꚨ결륱ꭈ늣띾ꪺ냲슦ꯘ덝ꅃ껚뻚First Union Security꛴군ꅁꗾ뉹ꗺ엖ꖫ돵꙾ꚨ뉶곹결14%ꅁ뻣엩ꗺ뛇뿩늣띾ꪺꗾ뉹늣귈녱1999꙾꒧100믵과꒸ꚨꛜ2003꙾꒧360믵과꒸ꅁ둔ꯗ곛럭엥ꑈꅃꗑ꧳ꗺ엖덹믹꧹뙑ꪺꙝ꿀꣏꣤때ꩫ뒶꓆ꅁꩰꕂ굮낵꣬꧒뿗ꪺꅵꗺ엖꣬깡ꅶ(fiber to the home)믝굮룻ꑪꪺ룪썂룻ꑛꪺ껉뚡ꅁꙝꚹꗘꭥꗺ엖뵵룴ꪺ빑덝ꕵ꧳납띆뫴룴결 7 ꕩ냑빜ꅵ끝끔덱끔늣띾룪ꅶ 29
ꕄꅃ ꑇꅂ륱ꭈ늣띾꒧ꖼ꣓땯깩쇍뛕?쁈뗛ꗾ뉹륱ꭈꖫ돵ꪺ뙽꧱뻣귓덱끔늣띾꣼꣬껸뙏믝ꡄꪺ엜ꅁꙁꕛꑗ륱ꭈ꒽ꕱ끬ꡄ롧샙껄꽱ꅂ룪끔뭐덱끔덎곣땯ꪺ뱶암ꅁ꣏녯뻣엩륱ꭈ늣띾뭐ꖫ돵꒤귬ꖻ꓀쓝꒣Ꙑ땯깩ꗘꪺꅂ꒣Ꙑ삳ꗎ믢냬ꪺꑔꑪ늣띾ꇐ뫴룴ꩁ냈ꅂ륱룜ꩁ냈ꅂꕈ둃엩ꩁ냈ꅁ꒣뛈Ꟗ덴ꚨꕂ늣ꗍꑪ뻣Ꙙꅃꛓ굙녱덯ꑔꑪ늣띾곛꒬뻣Ꙙ껉꧒ꛒ뱻ꪺꙝ꿀뭐뻣Ꙙ냊Ꙗ꣓곝ꅁꖼ꣓륱ꭈꩁ냈늣띾녎듂Ꙗꑕꙃ둘귓쇍뛕땯깩ꅇ (ꑀ) 륱ꭈꩁ냈듂ꗾ뉹꓆땯깩꒧쇍뛕 ꅵꗾ뉹꓆땯깩ꅶꑷꚨ결륱ꭈ늣띾꒣녯꒣땍ꪺ땯깩ꓨꚡꅃ륱ꭈ늣띾ꗑ꧳꣼꣬ꙕ냏냬륱ꭈꖫ돵뙽꧱ꪺ뱶암ꅁꙢꖫ돵덶몥릡ꥍꅁꕈ쑶ꪧ뽅꽐뻉교륱ꭈ뙏뉶ꑕ궰ꅁ꣏녯ꙕ륱ꭈ띾꒣녯꒣ꢫꕘ꣤귬ꚳꖫ돵ꅁꙖꕾ둍ꡄ띳ꪺ냓뻷ꅆꙁꅁ뙽땯꒤냪깡꙰꒤냪ꑪ뎰ꅂꩆꕈ꧔ꑂ과걷떥꒧롧샙끟궸ꅁ륱ꭈ냲슦ꯘ덝믝ꡄ껯꓁ꅁ꣏녯ꗾ뉹꧊륱ꭈ늣띾엜궲쇍뛕띕ꧺ엣ꅃ꙰ꗾ뉹돌ꑪ때뵵덱끔띾噯摡景湥⁁楲瑯畣?ꕈ꣖쇊떲럹ꪺꓨꚡ뎰쓲뙩ꑊ볚걷ꖫ돵?뱷냪䵡湮敳浡湮?ꅂꕟ과ꖫ돵?과냪䅩牴潵捨ꅂꙘ룪ꚨꗟ噥物穯温ꅂ꧔ꑂ과걷ꖫ돵?녱볚뙩굸꧔ꑂ과걷ꅁ뙒ꑕ롱ꑪꝑ佭湩瑥?ꅂꛨ꽚ꓺ䅲楴敬?ꅂꓓꖫ돵?ꓩꖻꅂ꿃ꛨ쓵ꅂ쇺ꅂ꒤냪ꑪ뎰떥?떥ꅁꟖ덴ꗾ뉹꓆ꪺ롽ꡂꅁꕈꞹꚨ꣤륱ꭈꪩ맏ꪺꯘꗟꅃ?(ꑇ) 뒣ꩀ덱끔ꩁ냈뭐덎 †덱ꭈ덎ꪺ뒣ꩀ떽ꅁ꣏녯덱끔ꪺꭾ뷨ꅂ덴ꯗ깥뙱ꑀꪽ뒣ꩀꅆ덱ꭈ걛멣뭐뛇뿩덎뙩ꡂ꣬볆ꛬ꓆ꅁ꣏녯때뵵덱끔ꇐGSMꅂ 30
3Gꛦ냊륱룜ꪺ땯깩ꅁ엽덱끔ꑗꪺ뭹궵ꅂ볆뻚ꅂ뱶릳ꚳꑆꙀ덱ꖭꕸꅁ꣏녯륱ꭈꩁ냈띾뭐꣤ꕌ늣띾꒧뚡ꦼꚹꕛ덴뻣Ꙙꅁꣃ뿄ꙘꙨ꒸꓆ꩁ냈ꅃꕴꕾꅁꙢ뫴룴ꯘ덝ꓨ궱ꅁ녎듂Ꙗ뱥쁗꓆ꅂꛦ냊꓆귓ꑈ꓆땯깩ꅆ녱ꙕ쏾륱ꭈ띾꧒뒣꣑ꪺ륱ꭈꩁ냈꣓곝ꅁꖼ꣓덱끔ꩁ냈녎라걏Ꙩ둃엩뻉Ꙗꅁꗧꝙ뱥쁗Ꙩ둃엩ꩁ냈녎라ꚨ결덱끔띳ꕄ걹ꅁꙝꚹ뻣귓뫴룴걛멣ꑝ라듂ꙖꙨ둃엩땯깩ꅁꛓꙢ뫴룴걛멣덶몥뱥쁗꓆ꑕꅁ룪껆뛇뿩ꪺ깥뙱ꝥ궿볆뱗ꕛꅁ녎라꣏녯ꩁ냈돐띳뻷라뱗ꕛꅁꑝꟳꕛꙨ꒸꓆ꅁꚨ결륱ꭈ띾ꪺ쑶ꪧꝑ뺹ꅃ (ꑔ) 륱ꭈꕛ덴ꛛꗑ꓆ †ꗾ뉹륱ꭈ늣띾ꛛꗑ꓆륌땻ꕩ꓀결ꑔ귓뚥걱ꅃ닄ꑀ뚥걱ꥬ꧳1970꙾ꕎꪺꕛ귈뫴룴ꩁ냈(VANS, Values Added Network Services)ꪺ뙽꧱ꅃ닄ꑇ뚥걱ꕈ과냪AT&T꧳1984꙾꓀돎결꓀곉쉉ꅃ과냪ꪺ륱ꭈ늣띾듁ꕈ꣓ꑀꪽꗑAT&T꧒썢쉟꯹ꅁAT&Tꪺ꓀돎룑엩ꛦ냊ꅁ뙈뱸륱ꭈ늣띾녱ꚹ뙩ꑊꛛꗑ쑶ꪧꪺ껉ꕎꅃ닄ꑔ뚥걱결1996꙾과냪륱ꭈ궲ꩫ껗(Telecommunications Act)ꕈꙐ듁꒧WTO뙽꧱륱ꭈꛛꗑ꓆ꣳꥷꯡꅁ륱ꭈ냲ꖻ걛멣결맯뙈ꪺ냏냬륱룜ꖫ돵뙽꧱ꅃ †륱ꭈ늣띾ꪺꛛꗑ꓆ꅁ돌ꧺ엣ꪺ둎걏ꓞ땯륱ꭈ뙏뉶ꝃ믹꓆쇍뛕ꅁꕈꙕ륱ꭈ띾ꪺꕥꚳ뉶뫻꯹쑶ꪧꞡ뿅ꪺꞽ궱ꅃ꣒꙰ꅁꙢAT&T꓀돎ꯡꪺ10꙾꒺ꅁ덾륱룜ꖫ돵꒧ꕥꚳ뉶녱80%ꑕ궰꣬60%ꅁ덾륱룜뙏ꟳꯦ덴ꑕ궰ꅃꕈ과냪ꪺ꣒ꑬ꣓곝ꅁ1996꙾과냪ꪺꖭꞡ냪믚륱룜뙏결ꡃ꓀쓁과꒸ꅁ98꙾ꖭꞡ냪믚륱룜뙏둎ꑷ궰ꝃ25%ꖪꕫꅁꖭꞡꡃ꓀쓁궰ꝃꛜ과꒸ꅆ과냪셰ꢹ덱끔ꥥ귻라(FCC)ꟳ륷듺ꛜꓖꙢ2003꙾ꕈꭥꅁ륱ꭈ뙏ꗎꡃ꙾ꛜꓖꚳ10%ꪺ뙞둔ꅃꚹꕾꅁ덱끔곬ꪺ뙩ꡂꅁ꣏녯륱뢣녡냊룪끔곛쏶늣띾땯깩ꅁ뫴믚뫴룴롧샙껄뉶ꪺ랾덱ꓨꚡꅁ때뵵덱끔ꚳ뵵뱥쁗곬뭐ꓩ귑뙩ꅁ뎣 31
걏륱ꭈꛛꗑ꓆꧒녡꣓ꪺ뱶암ꅁ녱ꛓ뱶암꣬륱ꭈ띾궱맯쑶ꪧ삣ꑏꑕꅁ꧒결꒧늣띾뻣Ꙙ뭐ꗸ띾궫뻣ꛦ냊ꅃ (ꕼ) 륱ꭈ룳둃엩ꪺ뻣Ꙙ쇍뛕 †ꗑ꧳륱뢣룪끔땷엩곬ꪺ뻣Ꙙꅁꚳ뵵뭐때뵵덱ꭈꕈ볆뻚뛇뿩ꅁ덶몥쇚ꑊ볆ꛬ꓆ꅂ뱥쁗ꅂ싹ꙖꪺꙨ둃엩Ꙩ꒸뫴룴덱끔껉ꕎꅁ륱ꭈ띾Ꙣꚹꑀ쇍뛕ꑕꅁꚨ륱ꭈꩁ냈덺륌륱뢣꡴닎곛꒬룳믢냬뻣Ꙙꪺ늣띾뿄Ꙙ뉻뙈ꅃꙝꚹꅁ륱ꭈ늣띾ꗘꭥꖿꢫꙖ꧒뿗ꪺꅵꑪ둃엩껉ꕎꅶ(megamedia)ꅁꑝ둎걏녎뛇닎륱ꭈꅂ뫴룴덱끔뭐뱳벽깔볖둃엩떥뻣ꙘꙢꑀ끟ꅇꅵ뫴룴ꅶꇏꅵ덱끔ꅶꇏꅵ둃엩ꅶꇗ띳ꮬ멁ꪺꅵ륱ꭈ덱끔ꅶ꒽ꕱꅃꙢ덯뫘쇍뛕ꑕꅁ녎늣ꗍ꣢뫘꒣Ꙑꪺꗸ띾롧샧떦늤ꅇꑀ걏륱ꭈ꒽ꕱ롧샧믢냬뵤돲쉘ꑪꅁ낣ꑆ륱ꭈꩁ냈ꕾꅁ녎Ꙑ껉롧샧뫴룴덱ꭈꅂ뱳벽깔볖ꩁ냈ꅁ꙰AT&TꅂMCI WorldComꝙ걏Ꙣ꒣쉟ꙡ쉘녩ꛛꑶꪺꪩ맏ꅆꕴꑀ뫘ꭨꕩ꿠걏ꙕ꒽ꕱ덶몥녍뫫꣤롧샧믢냬ꅁ둍ꡄꝑ냲ꖫ돵ꯡꙁ뭐꒣Ꙑꪺ꒽ꕱꚨ떦늤셰럹많뚤ꅁꑝ둎걏ꗸ띾ꢫꙖ꓀돎ꪺ덾깼ꅃ (꒭) ꅵ뱥쁗뫴룴ꅶ띦끴ꅵ때뵵덱끔ꅶ덶몥뾳끟 †쁈뗛ꗾ뉹륱ꭈꖫ돵ꪺꛛꗑ꓆ꅂ덱끔덎ꪺ뇀뎯ꕘ띳ꅂ뭐덱ꭈ뙏뉶ꪺꑕ럆ꅁ뱥쁗때뵵덱끔녎꣺ꕎ뛇닎ꪺꚳ뵵뫴룴덱끔볒ꚡꅁꚨ결ꗾ뉹덱끔땯깩ꕄ걹꒧ꑀꅃꚹꕾꅁꗾ뉹ꑗ뫴ꑈꑦꪺ뱗ꕛꅁ엣ꗜ볆뻚덱끔ꑝ녎몥몥뙗뙖뭹궵뛇뿩ꅁꗑꚹ엣ꗜ뫴믚뫴룴뭐때뵵덱끔녎ꚨ결ꖼ꣓륱ꭈꕄ걹ꅃꖼ꣓때뵵덱끔늣띾꿠ꝟꟖ덴쉘녩ꪺ뱶암ꙝ꿀ꕝ걁ꗾ뉹때뵵덱끔볐럇꿠ꝟꯘꗟꣃ뻣Ꙙꅆꕈ쁗뱥뛇뿩덴뉶꒧걏ꝟ꿠ꚳ껄뒣ꩀꛓꥷꅃ ꑔꅂꯡ륱ꭈꛛꗑ꓆꒧과냪륱ꭈꩁ냈ꖫ돵? 32
과냪ꛛ1996꙾륱ꭈ궲ꩫ껗덱륌ꯡꅁ녡믢과냪뙩ꑊ띳ꪺ륱ꭈꩁ냈쑶ꪧ껉ꕎꅁꑀ덳ꛪꪺ꣖쇊ꗸ띾궫뻣ꅁ엽과냪륱ꭈꑪ뱴ꪺ뻣ꙘꟳꕛꟖ덴ꅆ꿷ꕈ뇸ꙃꓨꚡ굺꣤꒤맯ꖼ꣓륱ꭈ띾롧샧늣ꗍ뉠뮷ꪺ뱶암뎡꓀ꅇ (ꑀ) 덾뭐냏냬륱ꭈꖫ돵쎿왘ꪺꖴ꽽ꅁ꣏녯덾륱룜꒽ꕱ꙰AT&TꅂMCISprint녱ꚹꕩ뙩ꑊ냏냬륱룜꒽ꕱ롧샧ꪺ띾냈뵤돲ꅆ꒧ꅁ냏냬륱ꭈ꒽ꕱꗧꕩ롧샧덾냪믚륱룜띾냈ꅃ맯덾륱룜꒽ꕱꛓꢥꅁ덺륌꣖쇊냏냬꧊륱룜꒽ꕱꪺꓢ걱룳ꢬ뫴믚뫴룴ꅂ때뵵덱끔ꩁ냈ꅁ뒣꣑ꯈꓡꟳꞹ뻣ꪺ륱ꭈꩁ냈뚵ꗘꅁ띭맜냏냬륱룜꒽ꕱꪺ띾냈ꅁ꣏냏냬꧊륱룜꒽ꕱꗑ꧳쑶ꪧꪺꕛꑊ뙏뉶론론ꑕ궰뻉교롧샧샲ꝑ끉끨ꅆ냏냬륱룜꒽ꕱꝖꑏ둍ꡄꝑ냲ꅁ꙰뭐덾륱룜꒽ꕱꙘ꣖ꅁ걏둍ꡄ뭐꣤ꕌ늣띾ꅁ꙰뫴룴볆뻚벷놵ꩁ냈ꅂꛦ냊덱끔띾냈ꅂꚳ뵵륱뗸ꩁ냈뻣Ꙙꪺ뻷라ꅁꕈ뒣꣑ꟳ꣣쑶ꪧꑏꪺꩁ냈꒺깥ꅁꙝ삳띳ꪺ륱ꭈ쑶ꪧ샴맒ꅃ (ꑇ) ꚳ뵵륱뗸꒽ꕱ녯ꕈ뙩ꑊ냏냬륱ꭈꖫ돵ꅁ맯냏냬륱룜ꑬ꒽ꕱ(Regional Bell Operating Companies, RBOCs)꣤ꕌ냏냬륱룜꒽ꕱ덹ꚨ랥ꑪꪺꯂ꿙ꅃꗑ꧳ꚳ뵵륱뗸꒽ꕱ뻖ꚳ볆ꛬ뱥쁗ꪺ왬뵵볆뻚ꩁ냈론ꗘ쁗륄꣑삳꒺깥ꅁ꧒ꕈ륱ꭈ꒽ꕱ결ꝋ꣤ꚨ쑶ꪧꪺꯂ꿙ꅁ뙩ꛦꙘ꣖룳띾셰럹ꪺꓨꚡꅁ꣓뒣꣑ꯈꓡꕝ걁륱ꭈꩁ냈ꚳ뵵륱뗸ꗾꓨꛬꩁ냈ꅃ (ꑔ) 굱ꥷ륱ꭈ꒽ꕱꪺ벷놵(access)뙏ꗎ곛쏶앶ꝑ롱냈꒧ꡍꥷꅁꖲ뚷롧ꗑ뷍Ꝑꅁ걏ꙻ걆ꦲꗲ뗴ꪺꓨꚡ륆ꚨꅁꕈ뵔ꭏRBOC꿠륆ꚨꩫ껗꒤맯꣤앶ꝑ롱냈ꪺ볐럇ꅃꕈ뷍Ꝑꓨꚡ뙩ꛦꅁ때ꩫꭏ믙꣤ꕌꖼ냑뭐ꪺ륱룜꒽ꕱ꒧앶꽱덑ꭏ앀ꅃ꙰Bell Atlantic뭐MCI꒧뷍Ꝑ맯AT&Tꛓꢥꅁꣃ꒣덑ꭏ쏒꣤앶ꝑ덑ꭏ앀꣬ꅃꙢꚹ놡ꑕꅁ꣏녯륱룜꒽ꕱ곩ꙮꝑꗎꚳ뵵륱뗸꣤ꕌ띳덎둃엩뙩ꑊ냏냬륱룜ꖫ돵ꅁꟳꕛꭐ꣏ 33
ꚳ뵵륱뗸꒽ꕱꪺ뻣Ꙙꛦ냊ꅃ †ꖼ꣓과냪ꪺ륱ꭈꖫ돵ꑀꥷ라꯹쓲뗛꣖쇊겡냊ꪺ뙩ꛦꅁꑰꪺ륱ꭈ꒽ꕱ꒣걏껸ꖢꅁ둎걏둍ꡄ뙒ꕄ뙩ꛦ궫뻣ꅁꪽ꣬꧒ꚳ꒽ꕱ뚡ꪺ뛕ꑏ륆꣬ꞡ뿅ꅃꙐ껉ꅁ덯륱ꭈ꒽ꕱꗧ꒣쉟ꙡꦹ냪ꕾ륱ꭈꖫ돵땯깩ꅁ뭐꣤ꕌ냪깡륱ꭈ꒽ꕱ뙩ꛦꙘꝀꕈꪧ꣺륱ꭈꖫ돵ꑪ믦ꅃ ꕼꅂꗾ뉹륱ꭈꖫ돵ꪺꪩ맏궫뻣뭐쉘녩 ꗾ뉹륱ꭈꑪ뱴ꖿ뽮랥ꕈ쉘ꑪꖫ뉶ꅂ뱗ꕛꗎꓡ볆ꪺꓨꚡ꣓Ꟗ덴꓁ꑊ덱끔ꖫ돵ꅁ돌녠ꢣꪺꓨꩫꭋ걏뙩ꛦ꣖쇊떲럹ꪺ겡냊ꅃ꿷쉫꿇ꕘ둘쉉쏶꧳륱ꭈ늣띾ꪺ꣖쇊볒ꚡꅇ (ꑀ)륱ꭈ늣띾꒧뷆Ꙙꚡ꣖쇊(conglomerate merger)볒ꚡꅇ 돌ꧺ엣ꪺ쇍뛕둎걏Ꙣ륱ꭈꛛꗑ꓆ꑕꅁꛦ냊륱룜ꅂꥷ뫴룴ꅂꚳ뵵륱뗸뫴믚뫴룴ꪺ걛멣녎ꕘ뉻뻣Ꙙꪺ쇍뛕ꅁ볚과륱ꭈ띾결쉘ꑪꖫ뉶뒣꣑ꟳ뱳꩸ꪺꩁ냈꒺깥ꑕꅁ뙩ꛦ꣖쇊걏늧띾떲럹걏돌Ꟗꪺ놶깼ꅁꕝ걁ꚳ뵵륱뗸띾ꅂ뫴룴꒺깥꣑삳냓ꅂ때뵵덱끔늣띾떥ꅁ뎣걏륱ꭈ띾ꪧ곛ꙘꝀꪺ맯뙈ꅁꚹ셼덹ꚨ륱ꭈ띾ꑪ꯭ꑪꪺ늣띾ꗍ멁ꅃ ꕈꚳ뵵륱뗸띾꣓곝ꅁꗑ꧳뱥쁗ꪺ룪껆뛇뿩뙱ꕩ륆ꑀ꿫륱룜뵵룴ꪺ볆ꑑ궿ꅁꙝꚹꅁꙢꕈ과냪결ꕄꪺ륱ꭈ띾ꅁ뽮랥ꯘ롭냏냬뱥쁗뫴룴ꅁꕈꡄꙢꅵ돌ꯡꑀ극ꅶ(the last mile)ꪺ뻔돵ꑗ몡ꢬꯈꓡꞹ뻣륱ꭈꩁ냈ꅃꙝꚹꅁꙕ륱ꭈꑪ뱴뙩굸ꗺ엖늣띾ꚳ뵵왬뵵늣띾ꅁꕈꡄꙢꕈ륱룜뵵룴뛇뿩결ꕄꪺꅵꭄꙐꡂ볆ꛬꗎꓡ끪룴ꅶꚳ뵵륱뗸Ꙑ뙢륱왬뛇뿩결ꕄꪺꅵ왬뵵볆뻚ꅶ앮걁꧒ꚳꗎꓡꅃ꣒꙰AT&T녱덾륱룜뙩ꑊ뱥쁗왬뵵뫴룴ꪺꛦ냊ꅁꙢ19981999꙾ꗽꯡ꣖쇊 34
꣢깡ꚳ뵵륱뗸쁗륄꡴닎뱴냓ꇐTCIMediaOneꅁꖿꚡ녱뛇닎륱ꭈ늣띾꓁ꑊ뱥쁗ꖫ돵ꅁꑝ녱ꑗ듥뱥쁗꣑삳냓ꅁ신뻔ꅵ돌ꯡꑀ극ꅶꪺ깡깸놵꣺ꖫ돵ꅁꚨ결ꗾ과돌ꑪꪺꚳ뵵왬뵵꒽ꕱ8ꅃꙢ뙩ꑊ때뵵덱끔ꖫ돵ꓨ궱ꅁ녱AT&T꣖쇊McCaw CellularꅂMCI WorldCom꣖쇊Sprint(ꯡꖢ뇑)ꅂAirtouch꣖쇊US West때뵵륱룜뎡떥ꅁ꣤ꗎ띎곒걏뇽뒣꣑ꯈꓡꗾꓨꛬꪺ륱ꭈꩁ냈ꅃ걏덯쏾ꮬꪺ뻣Ꙙ볒ꚡ꒣라늣ꗍ꙰륷듁꿫ꪺ껄삳ꅆ낣ꑆꑀ꿫꧊ꪺ꣖쇊ꖢ뇑귬ꙝꅁ꙰ꗸ띾ꓥ꓆뻣Ꙙ꒣꧶ꅂꚨꖻ론곙껄꽱꒣맼ꅂ뫮껄ꖼ꙰륷듁떥ꅁ돌ꕄ굮둎걏륱ꭈ늣띾ꪺ엜꓆Ꟗ덴ꅁꑀ귓썥ꑪꪺ륱ꭈ뚰많꒣꧶Ꟗ덴ꙡ뷕뻣쑶ꪧ떦늤ꅁ꣤ꅵ돦꾸쇊ꢬꅶ (one-stop shop)껸뙏볒ꚡꅁꑝ꒣라꣏ꯈꓡꗾ뎡꣏ꗎ룓꒽ꕱꪺ륱ꭈꩁ냈ꅃꙝꚹꅁ꣤셚껄ꫭ뉻ꛓ꒣굙꿂뫩롧샧ꪺ륱ꭈ띾꣎ꅃꯜꙨ꒽ꕱ돌ꯡ뎣꙰ꑕ궱꧒뮡ꪺꅁꢫꙖ꓀돎걏멍룪ꪺ덾깼ꅃ (ꑇ)ꮫꪽꚡ꣖쇊(vertical merger)볒ꚡꅇ ꚹ뫘륱ꭈ꣖쇊볒ꚡꑝ꒣꧶ꚨꕜꅃ꙰AT&T꧳1991꙾꣖쇊륱뢣덝돆뭳덹냓NCRꅃ돌ꕄ굮ꪺ냝썄Ꙣ꧳ꅁ륱ꭈ늣띾ꪺꑗ듥덝돆뭳덹냓(꣒꙰LucentꅂNortelꅂCisco떥)ꅁꕩ꿠Ꙑ껉녎꣤늣ꭾ빐냢떹륱ꭈꩁ냈뱴냓ꅁꛓꛬ꧳꒤ꑕ듥ꪺ륱ꭈꩁ냈뱴냓ꦹꦹ걏쑶ꪧ뽅꽐ꪺ맯ꓢꅁꙢ덯뫘놡ꩰꑕꅁꙖ맯ꓢꪺ꒽ꕱ쇊뙒덱끔덝돆떥꧳걏Ꙣ산ꖦ돐덹띾셚ꅁꙝꚹꯜ깥꧶신ꛓꙖꝏ깡뱴냓쇊뙒ꅁꛓ덱ꭈ덝돆늣ꭾꑝ꒣륌둎ꕘ냢떹ꢺ둘깡륱ꭈꑪ뱴ꅃ꧒ꕈ결ꝋꯈ랽걹ꖢꅁ라뙩ꛦ뽗ꗟ꓀돎ꪺ볒ꚡꅁ뭐귬꣓ꪺ꒽ꕱ멊뉍쏶ꭙꅃLucent뭐NCR둎걏Ꙣ덯뫘놡ꩰꑕ닦싷AT&Tꪺꅃ 8 ꚳ쏶AT&T꣖쇊TCIMediaOneꕈ꣤ꯡ꓀돎ꪺꗳꥬꖽꅁ꧳ꑕ론녎ꚳ룔닓뮡ꧺꅃ 35
(ꑔ)ꓴꖭꚡ꣖쇊(horizontal merger)볒ꚡ룻꧶ꚨꕜꅇ Ꙑ띾꒧뚡ꪺ꣖쇊ꅁ룻꧶ꚨ덗볒롧샙ꅁ쉘ꑪꖫ돵ꚳ뉶ꅁꙢ륱ꭈ늣띾료뫢룻ꚳꚨ껄ꪺ꣖쇊볒ꚡꅁ꒣ꕩ뱗ꕛꯈꓡ볆ꅁꕂ땷엩덝돆룪ꑝ꒣라궫뷆룪ꅃ굞냪때뵵덱끔띾VodafoneꙘ꣖AirTouch Communications(ꗽꭥꚬ쇊US West wireless business)뱷냪때뵵덱끔띾Mannesmannꅁꚨ결ꗾ뉹닄ꑀꑪ때뵵덱끔띾ꅆ륱ꭈ덝돆꣑삳냓Bay뭐North TelecomꙘ꣖ꚨ결ꕟ륱뫴룴(Nortel)ꅆꚳ뵵륱뗸띾MediaOne뭐ComcastꙘ꣖(ꯡ덑AT&T뙒ꑕ)떥ꅆ귈녯ꑀ뒣ꪺ걏ꅁ륱ꭈ늣띾Ꙣ돌ꫬ뙽꧱껉ꅁ둎걏Ᶎ뇦롧ꗑꓴꖭꚡ쑶ꪧ꣓ꭐ뙩룪랽ꟳ꣣껄뉶ꕈꝑ껸뙏ꅁ몸ꯡꪺꓴꖭꚡ꣖쇊걏ꝟ라ꙁꯗ뻉교꣣ꚳ썢쉟ꖫ돵ꪺ꿠ꑏꅁꕈ라덹ꚨ룪랽ꪺ꒣껄뉶떥륈ꚫ뮶ꩫ껗ꪺꛦ결ꅁ라뱶암ꚹꑀ꣖쇊볒ꚡꪺꚨ뇑ꅁ걆ꦲ걏ꝟ삳롔ꓮꙢ륱ꭈ늣띾ꪺꓴꖭꚡ꣖쇊ꅁꕈꝋ썢쉟놡땯ꗍꅁ삳룓굮녱군쒳ꑾ걏ꅃ (ꕼ)륱ꭈ늣띾ꪺ띳쇍뛕ꇐ뙩ꛦꗸ띾꓀돎ꕈ끬시땯ꛦꪺ볒ꚡ 륱ꭈ띾ꪩ맏ꪺ궫뻣볒ꚡꅁ꒣ꢣ녯둎ꭄ녯빡꣖쇊꣓쉘녩띾ꪩ맏ꅁꚳꪺ걏덺륌ꗸ띾꓀돎ꪺꓨꚡꞹꚨꅇAT&T꧳1996꙾2000꙾꓀ꝏꞹꚨ뚰많ꪺ닄ꑇꚸ닄ꑔꚸ꓀돎ꛦ냊ꅆꗾ과닄ꑀꑪ때뵵덱끔꒽ꕱSprintꗧ꧳2000꙾꓀돎ꚨSprint PCS(때뵵)Sprint FON(ꚳ뵵)꣢깡ꗸ띾ꅆ굞냪륱끔(BT)꓀ꕘꕼ깡꒽ꕱꇐIgniteꅂBT openworldꅂBT WirelessꅂYell(portal website)ꅆVoiceStream꧳1999꙾ꛛWestern Wireless꓀돎뽗ꗟꕘ꣓ꅆꓩꖻNTT꧳19921999꙾ꗽꯡ꓀돎때뵵덱끔뎡DoCoMo뫴뎡ꇐ꣢깡냏냬륱룜꒽ꕱ뭐ꑀ깡덾멛냪믚륱룜꒽ꕱꅃꚳꪺ걏덺륌듀ꑬ꒽ꕱ땯ꛦ끬시ꪺꓨꚡꞹꚨꅁ꣒꙰AT&T Wireless GroupꅂLucentꅂUS West Cable떥꒽ꕱꅃꅵ껖ꓟ띾ꪺ롧샧ꅶ걏돌ꕄ굮ꪺ냊뻷ꅁ결ꪺ둎걏엽걙띾 36
뎡ꪺ샧륂셚껄뽗ꗟꕘ꣓ꅁ롧샧ꡍ떦꒣꣼ꗀ꒽ꕱꡍꥷꅁꙝ삳샾꺧롕엜ꪺ륱ꭈ샴맒Ꟗ덴낵ꕘ삳엜떦늤ꅃꚹ뫘볒ꚡꑷꚳ띕꣓띕Ꙩꪺ륱ꭈ띾맪ꛦꅁꕝ걁ꖼ꣓냪꒤뗘륱ꭈ(CHT)ꗁ샧꓆ꯡꅁ샀ꛒ뱻ꗩ돋과ꓩ륱ꭈ띾볒ꚡ녎멘ꑕ띾뎡뽗ꗟꕘ꣓(냪ꥼ때끬시ꪺꩫꯟ덗뵤)ꅃ ꒭ꅂꕸ왗륱ꭈꖫ돵뉻ꩰ (ꑀ)뫮왛뉻꒵냪꒺ꪺ륱ꭈ늣띾ꅁ꣤꒤ꕈ꒤뗘륱ꭈ꒽ꕱ(CHT)뭐AT&Tꪺ굉뒺뇸ꗳ돌결곛ꅁ꙰륱ꭈꗁ샧꓆꒧ꭥ곒썢쉟ꗾ냪ꪺ륱ꭈ룪랽ꅆ멘ꑕꪺ뎡띾냈ꑗ뽗ꗟ롧샧ꕂ늣ꭾ뵵ꞹ뻣ꅂꕈ궱맯륱ꭈ샴맒ꛛꗑ꓆ꪺ뙽꧱쑶ꪧ떥ꅃꛓꖼ꣓꒤뗘륱ꭈꪺ롧샧ꓨꙖ녎ꓱ룻뛉Ꙗ꧳쏾AT&T꿫ꅁ뇄꣺꓀돎ꪺ볒ꚡ9냵ꛦꗸ띾궫뻣ꅁ꒺뎡ꙕ띾뎡ꙁ뽗ꗟꚨꑬ꒽ꕱꑗꖫꅁ꒣ꕩ쇈꣺룪ꖻꝑ녯ꅁꟳꕩꓞ뙩떦늤셰럹맙꛱ꅁꕈ뱗ꕛ쑶ꪧ쁵뛕ꅁ꙰ꚹꙢ궱맯ꙕ뎡꒧Ꙑ띾쑶ꪧꑗ룻뻣ꙘꙢꑀ끟껉깥꧶ꅃ걇Ꙣ녍띾꓆롧샧ꪺꭥ뒣ꑕꅁ궱셻륱ꭈꖫ돵ꪺ쑶ꪧꅁ꒤뗘륱ꭈꚳꖲ굮ꙝ삳엜꓆ꅁꝀ닕슴ꑗꪺ뷕뻣ꅁꕈ샲녯ꟳꑪꪺ껄꽱ꅃ †룛꙰AT&T꧒뙩ꛦꪺꮫꪽ뻣Ꙙ륱ꭈꩁ냈꒧떦늤ꖢ뇑꣒ꑬꅁ꒤뗘륱ꭈ삳둍ꡄ껖ꓟ띾냈롧샧ꪺ륱ꭈ띾볒ꚡꅁꕈ멘ꑕꙕ띾뎡걊ꚳꪺ쁵뛕뭐꣤Ꙑ띾쑶ꪧꅁꣃ뙩ꛦ뱳꩸ꪺ떦늤셰럹ꅁꚨ꧒뿗ꪺꅵ뗪샀뻣Ꙙꅶꅁ곆ꛜꕩꕈ놱꒽ꕱꪺꗸ띾볒ꚡ꣓앮걁꧒ꚳ륱ꭈꖫ돵띾냈ꅁꕈ돐덹ꟳ낪ꪺꗸ띾믹귈ꥍꩆ앶꽱ꅃ (ꑇ)륱ꭈ늣띾뚡ꪺꖫ돵곉궭띕꣓띕볒뵫ꅁ꣏녯ꙕ늣띾띾ꞡꕈ뒣꣑ꯈꓡꗾꓨꛬ륱ꭈꩁ냈결샧륂ꓨ끷ꅃꫭ3-2엣ꗜꑆꕸ왗ꕄ굮륱ꭈꩁ냈띾 9 ꒤뗘륱ꭈ멘ꑕꕼꑪ뎡ꉷ뫴ꅂꑪ귴ꑪꅂ볆뻚뛇뿩ꥍ때뵵륱ꕳꑈꉷ꒧륱ꭈ라군뽗ꗟꅁꙢ꓀돎ꪺ냵ꛦꑗ룻꣤ꕌ늣띾ꑗ깥꧶ꅃ 37
꧒롧샧ꪺ뚵ꗘ뫘쏾ꅃꗑꚹꕩꪾꅁꙕ띾ꑪꙨ걏ꕈ신룪떦늤셰럹ꪺꓨꚡ룳ꑊ꣤ꕌ륱ꭈ구ꗍ곛쏶ꖫ돵ꅁꛓꭄ꙰AT&T걏ꕈ꣖쇊ꪺꓨꚡ꣓륆꣬뙩ꑊ꣤ꕌꖫ돵ꪺꗘꪺ10ꅃ꣒꙰ꕸ왗ꑪ귴ꑪꅂ뮷뛇륱ꭈ뭐ꥍꭈ륱끔꓀ꝏ신룪ꕸ왗뫴ꅂ띳ꕀ곶룪덱ꥍꥍꭈ뙗둃엩떥ꅃ덯뫘뗪샀뻣Ꙙꪺꗸ띾ꮬ멁곛룻꧳꒤뗘륱ꭈꪺꮫꪽ뻣ꙘꛓꢥꅁꙢ샧륂떦늤닕슴뷕뻣떥뱵꧊ꑗꑪ녯Ꙩꅃ곛ꭈ덯뫘ꗸ띾롧샧볒ꚡ삳라ꚨ결륱ꭈ늣띾ꪺꖼ꣓쇍뛕ꅃ ꫭ3-2 ꕸ왗ꕄ굮륱ꭈ띾롧샧륱ꭈ띾냈뚵ꗘ 뫋럇ꖫ돵롧샧띾냈 륱ꭈ띾 ꖫ꒺냪믚뫴믚뫴룴때뵵륱ꕳꑈꛦ냊륱룜 ꚳ뵵륱뗸륱룜 덾륱룜 (ISP,cable) () 쁗륄둃엩 ꒤뗘륱ꭈ ꆷ ꆷ ꆷ ꆷ ꆷ ꕸ왗ꑪ귴ꑪ ꆷ 뮷뛇륱ꭈ ꆷ ꆷ ꥍꭈ륱끔 ꆷ ꩆꭈ륱ꭈ ꆷ ꩸륱ꭈ ꆷ ꕸ왗뫴 ꆷ ꆷ ꆷ ꩆ듋뱥쁗 ꆷ ꆷ ꆷ ꆷ 띳ꕀ곶룪덱 ꆷ ꆷ ꆷ 셰뗘륱ꭈ ꆷ ꆷ ꑪ늳륱ꭈ ꆷ ꆷ 볆ꛬ셰Ꙙ ꆷ ꥍꭈ뙗둃엩 ꆷ ꆷ 룪껆꣓랽ꅇꖻ곣ꡳ뻣뉺 10 ꗘꭥꕸ왗륱ꭈ늣띾곩ꚳꑀ귓꣖쇊ꪺ껗ꗳꅁꝙ결ꥍꭈ륱끔ꚬ쇊ꩆ멡륱ꭈ앶ꅃꕴꕾꅁ륱ꭈ띾꒧뚡ꪺ꣖쇊겡냊ꥼ꣼궭꧳륱ꭈꩫ덗ꪺ뙽꧱ꗦ덱뎡륱ꭈ셠ꞽꪺ껖귣ꓨꕩ뙩ꛦꅁꙝꚹꅁꕸ왗ꪺ륱ꭈ늣띾ꗘꭥ곩꧳신룪ꥍ떦늤셰럹ꪺ겡냊ꅃ 38
닄ꑇ론?AT&Tꪺꗸ띾궫뻣겡냊?륱ꭈ늣띾ꪺꗸ띾궫뻣겡냊ꅁꕩꕈ뮡걏녱AT&T륱ꭈꓽ냪ꪺ꓀룑ꛓ뙽ꥬꪺꅃꖻ론녎놴끑AT&TꙢ륱ꭈ늣띾ꪺꑀ꡴ꙃ꣖쇊꓀돎겡냊ꅁ싇ꚹꑀ뽳과냪륱ꭈ늣띾ꪺꗸ띾떦늤ꅁꕈ결ꗾ뉹륱ꭈ꒽ꕱꖼ꣓ꚨꪺ귉쏨ꅃꕈꑕ녎꓀결꒭귓ꕄ썄ꅁ껉뚡땯ꗍꗽꯡꚸꟇꅁ녎AT&Tꪺꗸ띾궫뻣겡냊Ꝁꑀ룔뫉꒧뮡ꧺꅃꚹꕾꅁꖻ론ꗧ녎놴끑쏶꧳AT&T뫞뉺럭ꞽꪺꡍ떦냊뻷꣤맯ꩆ끝둉ꪺ뱶암ꅁꕝ걁ꡍꥷ1996꙾꒧AT&T꓀돎륱뢣ꅂ뫴룴덱끔뎡ꅆꭐ꣏AT&TꙨꢤ꓆뙩ꑊ뫴룴ꅂꚳ뵵륱뗸ꅂ냏냬륱룜ꅂ떦늤셰럹ꪺꡍ떦ꅆ꣖쇊뭐꓀돎꧒륷꛴ꪺ뫮껄맯ꩆ끝둉ꪺ뱶암ꅃ ꑀꅂ?AT&T꧳1984꙾ꪺ닄ꑀꚸ꓀돎 1981꙾ꕈꭥꅁAT&TꙢ과냪륱ꭈꖫ돵꒴ꭏꚳ뽗ꕥꪺꙡꛬꅁ뒣꣑ꗾ과ꖫ꒺륱룜ꅂ덾륱룜ꕈ냪믚륱룜ꪺꗾꓨꛬ덱끔ꩁ냈ꅃ1982꙾ꫬꅁAT&T비과냪ꕱꩫ뎡ꕈꚫ뮶뒵ꩫ11놱뙄꣤뽗ꕥ륱ꭈꖫ돵ꪺꙡꛬꅁAT&Tꯡ뭐과냪ꕱꩫ뎡륆ꚨꣳ쒳ꅁ쎱굱ꅵ귗ꖿ돌ꯡꝐꡍ껑ꅶ(Modified Final Judgment, MFJ)ꅁ꒺깥ꕝ걁ꅇ (ꑀ) AT&T꧱뇳ꙡꓨ륱룜ꖫ돵ꅁ엽귬쓝AT&Tꪺ22귓냏냬륱룜ꑬ꒽ꕱ(RBOCs)닦싷ꗀ꒽ꕱ뽗ꗟꅁ꓀돎ꚨꑃ귓ꙡ냏꧊ꪺ륱룜꒽ꕱꅁꭕ뫙Baby Bells12ꅆ (ꑇ) AT&TꙐ띎뙽꧱덾륱룜ꖫ돵뭐덱끔덝돆ꖫ돵ꕈꥍ꣤ꕌ뱴냓꒽뙽쑶ꪧꅆ 11 ꚳ쏶AT&Tꚫ뮶뒵뙄덞룻ꞹ뻣ꪺ룔굺ꅁꕩ냑ꛒBruce Wasserstein , “Big Deal 2000 and Beyond”, Warner Books,2000, p348-350ꅃ 12 AT&T녎ꓜꑇ깡ꞹ뻣ꪺꙢꙡ륱룜꒽ꕱ궫뻣ꚨꑃ깡냏냬꧊륱룜놱꒽ꕱꅇSouthwestern Bell, Bell Atlantic, BellSouth, US West, Ameritech, Pacific Telesis, and NYNEXꅁꙕꕱꑇꛜꑑꕼꙻꪺꖫ꒺륱룜ꩁ냈녡ꪬ덾륱룜띾냈ꅃꪽ꣬ꗘꭥꅁꕵꚳꑗ굺ꭥꕼ깡꒴꙳Ꙣꅃ 39
(ꑔ) AT&T샲녯걆ꦲ꒹덜녯ꕈ뙩ꑊ륱뢣뭳덹늣띾ꅆ (ꕼ) ꗀ꒽ꕱꇐAT&Tꇐꭨꭏꚳ덾냪믚륱룜띾냈(Long Lines)ꅂ륱ꭈ덝돆뭳덹띾냈ꇐꛨꓨ륱뻷(Western Electric)ꕈ뗛ꙗꪺ륱ꭈ곣땯돦ꛬꇐꢩ몸맪엧ꯇ(Bell Laboratories)ꅃ (꒭) ꑃ깡RBOCsꭨ덑궭꣮롔ꓮ뙩ꑊ덾륱룜ꖫ돵륱ꭈ덝돆뭳덹늣띾ꅃ AT&T뗻꛴럭껉ꪺ륱ꭈꖫ돵샴맒ꅁ뭻결ꑕꙃ꣢쉉ꙝ꿀ꅁ꣏AT&TꙐ띎놵꣼뭐걆ꦲ륆ꚨꑗ굺ꪺꣳ쒳Ꝑꡍ꒺깥ꅇ (ꑀ) AT&T뭐륱뢣곛쏶ꪺ땯ꧺ꣏꣤맯륱뢣늣띾ꪺ뾳뷬ꗑ꣓ꑷꑛꅁꙝꚹꅁAT&TꙢꝐꡍ뇑뙄ꯡꅁꖲ뚷꧱뇳ꑀꖫ돵ꅁꕈꗦ뒫뇸ꗳ녯ꕈꙘꩫ뙩ꑊꕴꑀ귓ꖫ돵믢냬ꇐ륱ꭈ덝돆뭳덹륱뢣룪껆덂뉺띾떥믢냬ꅃ럭껉AT&T엣땍낪꛴꣢귓CꇐCommunicationꅂComputerꇐ떲Ꙙꪺ덴ꯗꅁꝃ꛴륱뢣뭳덹ꖫ돵ꪺ뽅꽐쑶ꪧꅁꕈ교ꯡ꣓꧳1991꙾꣖쇊NCRꪺꖢ뇑껗꣒ꅃ (ꑇ) AT&T뭻결냏냬륱ꭈ꒽ꕱ쓝꧳낪룪ꖻ녋뚰ꅂꝃꚬ꽱뉶ꪺ늣띾ꅁ걇Ꙑ띎꧱뇳ꅃ럭껉AT&Tꗧꧺ엣ꝃ꛴때뵵덱끔ꪺ뾳끟ꅁꕈ륱룜뭐뱶릳뛇뿩ꪺ떲Ꙙꅁ곆ꛜꯡ꣓ꪺ륱ꭈ곬ꪺ덎뙩ꡂꅁ륱ꭈ떲Ꙙ뫴믚뫴룴ꪺ뱶암ꑏꅃ AT&T꧳1984꙾1ꓫ1ꓩꞹꚨꗸ띾꓀돎ꪺ겡냊ꅃ꓀돎ꯡꪺꗸ띾닕슴ꮬ멁꙰맏3-1ꅃ꓀돎ꯡꪺAT&T꒴ꭏꚳ꣤ꕄ굮ꪺ냪믚뭐덾륱룜띾냈ꅂꢩ몸맪엧ꯇꥍꛨꓨ륱뻷뎡ꅃ 40
맏3-1?1984꙾AT&T닄ꑀꚸ꓀돎ꯡ꒧ꗸ띾닕슴ꮬ멁 22깡냏냬꧊냪믚륱룜꒽ꕱ륱룜덾ꛨꓨ륱뻷(RBOCs)(Long Lines)뽗ꗟꚨꑃꢩ몸맪엧ꯇ깡냏(Bell Labs)냬륱룜꒽ꕱSouthwestern BellUS WestBell AtlanticAmeritechBellSouthPacific TelesisNYNEX룪껆꣓랽ꅇꖻ곣ꡳ뻣뉺 ꗑ꧳덯ꚸꪺ꓀돎겡냊걏ꭄꛛ쑀꧊ꪺꅁ꧒ꕈAT&TRBOCsꖼ꣓꿠ꝟ쑾쓲ꭏꚳ샲ꝑꪺ놡ꩰ믡꣼뷨뫃ꅃꙢ꓀돎ꕈꭥꅁAT&TꙢ뙏뉶ꑗꪺ떦늤걏ꕈ낪뙏뉶ꪺ덾냪믚륱룜ꝑ볭룉뙋ꝃ뙏뉶ꪺꖫ꒺륱룜솫띬ꅆ꓀돎ꕈꯡꪺꑃ깡냏냬꧊륱룜꒽ꕱꙢ뽗ꗟ롧샧ꯡꅁꡓꚳꑆꗀ꒽ꕱ덾륱룜뎡샧륂샲ꝑꪺ꽊ꩠꅁ뛕ꖲꖼ꣓쏸ꕈꗍ꙳ꅃꕴꕾꅁAT&TꙢꗋ룑ꯡꅁꑝ궱 41
맯덾냪믚륱룜ꪺ띳쑶ꪧꉷ꙰MCIꅂSprintꉷ꒧ꕛꑊꅁ꣏ꗎ돐띳ꪺ덱끔덎ꚨꖻꪺ론곙ꅁ떽늣ꭾꩁ냈ꕈ륃뮡껸뙏신뒫덾륱룜꒽ꕱꅁ띭ꕥAT&Tꪺꯈꓡꅆꚹꕾꅁ덯꒽ꕱ뙩ꛦꑀ덳ꛪꪺ꣖쇊겡냊ꅁ룳ꢬꗺ엖ꛦ냊덱끔늣띾ꅁ뭐꣤ꕌ늣띾꙰륱뢣띾뙩ꛦ떦늤셰럹앶ꗦ뒫떥겡냊ꅁ꣏녯AT&Tꪺ륱ꭈ럹ꕄꙡꛬ뉠띐녪꽐ꪺꯂ꿙ꅃ 뺨뫞AT&Tꭏ꽤ꑆ덾륱룜ꥍ륱ꭈ덝돆뭳덹ꅂ곣땯빐냢떥낪ꚨ꧊띾냈ꅁꛓꑃ깡RBOCs곩ꚳꑀ뒶덱ꪺꙡ냏꧊륱룜띾냈ꅃRBOCs깩뉻엥ꑈꪺ샲ꝑ꿠ꑏꅁꧺ엣뙗ꕘAT&Tꪺ셚껄ꫭ뉻ꅇ1987꙾ꅁꑃ깡Baby Bellsꪺ뉢ꝑꙀ군$89믵과꒸ꅁ뉢ꝑ뉶13결12%ꅁꙐ듁AT&T곩결%ꅃ꓀돎ꯡꙕꑬ꒽ꕱꪺ셚껄ꫭ뉻ꪺ뵔쁵꧳뻣Ꙙ껉ꪺꗀ꒽ꕱ셚껄ꅃ뇀ꡳ꣤셚껄쁵늧꒧귬ꙝ꙰ꑕꅇ (ꑀ) 뇄꣺뷕낪ꖫ꒺륱룜뙏뉶ꪺ떦늤ꕈ뫻꯹꒽ꕱ샧륂ꅃꕈꭥAT&T걏ꕈ덾륱룜ꪺ샲ꝑꗦꑥ룉뙋ꖫ꒺륱룜띾냈ꪺ솫띬ꅁ꓀돎뽗ꗟꯡꅁꙕꑬ꒽ꕱ곕솫ꛛ굴ꅁꙝꚹꅁ결뫻꯹륱ꭈ덝돆뫴룴ꩁ냈떥샧륂ꚨꖻ뱗ꕛ샧ꚬꚨꪺꛒ뙱ꅁꚹ결꒣녯꒣결꒧덾깼ꅃ (ꑇ) 볆ꛬ륱ꭈ껉ꕎꪺ꣓셻꣫뽅륱룜꣏ꗎ뙱ꑪ둔뱗ꕛꅃ꙰뛇꽵뻷ꅂ뫴룴룪껆뛇뿩ꅂꛦ냊륱룜떥낪곬륱ꭈ늣ꭾꪺ꣏ꗎꅁ꣏녯뻣엩륱룜덱끔뙱ꚨ룵아ꚡꪺꚨꅃ (ꑔ) 뫞뉺ꑈ귻ꪺ뮤ꙝ뭐삣ꑏꅃꙕ냏냬꧊꒽ꕱ꒧ꕄ뫞ꅁ귬ꖻꙢAT&T껉ꕎ곩걏뚰많ꚨ귻ꪺꑀꗷꑬꅁ꓀돎ꯡꚨ결뚷굴뻡뻣귓ꑬ꒽ꕱꪺ뾳ꑠꚨꪺ낪뚥롧뉺ꑈꅁ뚷궱맯쏶ꕇ꒽ꕱꖼ꣓ꪺꡍ떦쒳썄ꅁꙢ쑶ꪧꪺ샴맒꒤ꅁꑀꪽ둍맯ꛛꑶ꒽ꕱꚳꝑꪺ땯깩ꝑ냲ꓨꙖꅁꙝ결꒽ꕱ샧ꚬ뫲쎴ꛛꢭꪺ셾륓ꓴ럇ꅃ 13 뉢ꝑ뉶ꇗ땼ꯡ뉢ꝑꇾꚬꑊꅃ 42
(ꕼ) ꯹쓲뙩ꛦꙨꢤ꓆꣖쇊겡냊ꅃꙕꑬ꒽ꕱꛛ꓀돎ꯡꅁꭋ뇽뽮랥ꙡ룳ꑊ꣤ꕌ늣띾ꅁ꙰때뵵덱끔ꅂ륱뢣뭳덹덱룴ꅂ뫴룴덮엩ꅂꚳ뵵륱뗸ꕈꗺ엖늣띾떥뙩ꛦꙨꢤ꓆겡냊ꅁ뺨뫞뎡ꗷꪺ꣖쇊돌ꯡ닗ꝩꖢ뇑ꅁꙕꑬ꒽ꕱ꒴덺륌덯뫘ꗸ띾롧샧볒ꚡ끬ꡄ꒽ꕱꪺꖼ꣓ꚨꓨꙖꅃꪽ꣬ꗘꭥꅁ덯꣖쇊뭐떦늤셰럹떥겡냊꒴뎣ꓨ뾳ꖼꛣꅃ 뺨뫞쑶ꪧ맯ꓢ꯹쓲ꯂ꿙뗛AT&T덾륱룜껖ꓟ띾냈ꅁAT&T꒣녯꒣뙽ꖴꝃ뙏뉶ꪺ믹껦뻔뭐뒣낪륱ꭈꩁ냈ꭾ뷨ꕈꭏꚳꖫ돵ꕥꚳ뉶ꙝ삳뱀꽐ꪺ쑶ꪧ샴맒ꅃꚹꕾꅁAT&T뇽녎륱뢣뭐덱끔낵ꑀꚳ껄꒧뻣Ꙙꅁ낣ꑆ곣땯띳덎삳ꗎꙢ륱ꭈ덝돆ꪺꑗꅁ걛멣륱뢣꓆ꪺ륱룜뫴룴ꅁꟆ뇦뒣꣑ꯈꓡ돦꾸쇊ꢬꪺꓨꚡꅁ빐냢ꛛꑶꪺ륱룜덝돆ꩁ냈ꅃ걇AT&Tꛛ1984꙾끟ꅁ뙩ꛦꑀ덳ꛪꪺ륱ꭈ늣띾ꮫꪽ뻣Ꙙꪺꛦ냊ꅁꕝ걁뎰쓲ꙡ꣖쇊륱뢣곛쏶뎡꒽ꕱꅁ꙰Olivetti ($믵과꒸)ꅂSun MicrosystemsꅂParadyne ($믵과꒸)ꅂNCR ($75믵과꒸)떥ꅁꗾ뎣ꙝ결샧륂꒣떽뻉교솫띬ꅃ꒧ꯡꅁAT&Tꪺ떦늤녎녱륱뢣덱끔ꪺ뻣Ꙙ신엜결뗛궫꧳뻣엩덱끔ꩁ냈ꪺ뒣꣑ꅃAT&T뙽ꥬ룳ꢬꖫ꒺륱룜띾냈ꅁꕈꚳ뵵뱥쁗ꅂ뫴믚뫴룴ꅂꗺ엖떥ꞹ뻣ꪺ륱ꭈꩁ냈ꅁ곆ꛜꅁAT&T뭐ꙕ깡Baby Bells녱ꕈꭥꪺꗀꑬ꒽ꕱ쏶ꭙ엜결륱ꭈꖫ돵ꪺ쑶ꪧ맯ꓢꅃ AT&Tꛛ꓀돎ꯡꅁ깩뙽ꑀ덳ꛪꪺꗸ띾궫뻣궫닕군릺ꅁ녎꒽ꕱ떲멣꓀결꣢ꑪ샧륂꒤ꓟꅇꅵAT&T Communicationsꅶ굴덤덾륱룜ꩁ냈띾냈ꅆꅵAT&T Technologiesꅶ굴덤륱뢣륱ꭈ덝돆뭳덹띾냈ꅃꚹꯡꅁꛛ1986꙾뙽ꥬꅁAT&T껸뙏늣ꭾ뎡Ꙣ껼ꕾ둍귬ꥬꥥ끕뭳덹(OEM)뻚쉉ꅁ뎡ꗷ뭳덹ꑵ뱴ꕾ늾ꅃꙐ꙾ꅁAT&T뙽ꥬ땯깩ꭈꗎꕤ띾냈ꅁꯡ꣺ꙗ결ꅵAT&T Universal Cardꅶꅃ1991꙾뙒뙩NCRꅁ땯깩륱뢣뭳덹띾냈ꅁꯡꟳꙗ결ꅵGISꅶꅃ1993꙾뙒뙩McCaw Cellular Communicationsꅁ땯깩ꛦ냊덱끔띾냈ꅃ 43
녱ꯡꪺ왛쉉꣓곝ꅁAT&Tꑃ깡Baby BellsꙢ꓀돎ꯡꅁ꒣ꖼꙝ쑶ꪧ뽅꽐ꛓ늣ꗍ샧륂땾맒ꅁꛓꙕꛛꢫꕘꛛꑶꪺꙝ삳꒧륄ꅁ꣏꓀돎ꯡꪺ뻣엩셚껄룻꓀돎ꭥ결꣎ꅃ ꑇꅂ?AT&T꧳1996꙾ꪺ닄ꑇꚸ꓀돎 AT&T결ꑆ뙩ꑀꡂ뱗ꕛꩆ믹귈ꅝ맪믚ꑗ걏ꡄ쉜닦멘ꑕ륱뢣뭳덹뎡GIS꯹쓲ꪺ솫띬ꅞꅁ꧳1995꙾9ꓫ20ꓩꯅꝇ꒽ꕱ닄ꑇꚸ궫ꑪꪺ꓀돎겡냊ꅁ녎ꗸ띾뚰많꓀돎ꚨnew AT&Tꅝ덾ꅂ냪믚ꅂ때뵵꒧덱끔ꩁ냈ꅁꕈꭈꗎꕤꥍꗸ띾뿔룟압냝떥띾냈ꅞꅂLucent Technologies Inc.ꅝ덱끔뫴룴덝돆꡴닎ꅞꅂꕈGISꅝ륱뢣뭳덹뎡ꅁAT&T꧳1991꙾ꚬ쇊꒧NCRꅁ꧳꓀돎ꯡꙁꯗꟳꙗ결NCRꅞꚨꑔ귓뽗ꗟꅂ꒽뙽ꑗꖫ꒽ꕱꅃ뻣귓꓀돎륌땻녱1995꙾9ꓫ꣬1996꙾꦳ꅃAT&T꧳덯ꚸ꓀돎ꪺꗸ띾닕슴ꮬ멁꙰맏3-2ꅇ 맏3-2?1996꙾AT&T닄ꑇꚸ꓀돎ꯡ꒧ꗸ띾닕슴ꮬ멁NewGlobalInformationSolutions룪껆꣓랽ꅇꖻ곣ꡳ뻣뉺 44
Ꙣ1990꙾ꕎ과냪ꗸ띾곉늱ꛦ꣖쇊뭐떦늤셰럹꒧믚ꅁAT&T덯뚵볩걹꒧셼결럭껉덗볒돌ꑪꪺꗸ띾꓀깡ꛦ냊ꅃ덯ꑝꕎꫭAT&Tꛛ1984꙾닄ꑀꚸ꓀돎ꕈ꣓ꅁꝟꥷꑪ뎡ꗷAT&T꧒뿭둠ꪺ떦늤ꇐ뻣Ꙙ덱끔뭐륱뢣ꩁ냈ꅁꑝ엩뭻꣬Ꙣ낪ꯗ쑶ꪧꪺ륱ꭈ늣띾꒺ꅁ냟ꚳ룻ꑰ덗볒ꅂꟳ녍ꩠꖻ띾뻕ꪺ꒽ꕱꑾ꣣ꚳ쑶ꪧꑏꅃ 덹ꚨ덯ꚸ꓀돎껗ꪺ귬ꙝꅁꕄ굮ꚳꑔꅇ (ꑀ) GISꪺ덳꙾솫띬ꅇAT&TꪺGIS뎡꧳1995꙾ꭥ꣢ꥵꪺ$믵과꒸ꪺ솫띬ꅁꕈ5꙾꣓Ꙁ띬ꖢꑆ$40믵과꒸ꅁꙁꕛꑗꑀ덳ꛪꪺ꒺뎡ꥍꕾ뎡ꪺ냝썄ꅁꧬ닖ꑆAT&Tꪺ샲ꝑ꿠ꑏ14ꅃ꣒꙰AT&T뭐NCRꪺꗸ띾ꓥ꓆뷄곰믢뻉궷껦ꅁ덹ꚨ덜ꙨNCR귻ꑵꪺ싷슾ꅆꕈ륱뢣띾ꪺ쑶ꪧ뽅꽐땻ꯗꅁ뮷뙗륌AT&Tꪺ띑릳ꅁ교꣏AT&TꑊꓓꙨꪺ룪랽ꙢNCRꅁꡓꚳ늣ꗍ륷듁ꪺ샲ꝑ꿠ꑏ뫮껄껄ꩇꅃ (ꑇ) 걆ꦲꩫꕏꪺ엜ꟳꅇ1996꙾띳륱ꭈꩫ껗꒺깥삳ꑆ덱끔덎ꓴ럇ꅁ녎꣏녯덱끔ꩁ냈띾ꪺ쑶ꪧꟳꕛ뽅꽐ꅁꣃ뙽꧱냏냬륱룜ꖫ돵꒽뙽쑶ꪧꅁꑝ꣏녯AT&Tꗑ꧳꿊ꕆ쑶ꪧ샴맒ꪺ롧엧(꒧ꭥꑀꪽ걏덂꧳뽗ꕥꪺꙡꛬ)ꅁꕛꑗ꒣ꚨꕜꪺ륱뢣뭐덱끔뎡뻣Ꙙ떲ꩇꅁ궢꣏꓀돎ꗳꪺ뛊ꗍꅃ (ꑔ) 곬뭐ꩫꕏꪺ엜꣏녯AT&T닕슴ꑕꪺꑔꑪ늣띾곛꒬ꗙ곞ꅃAT&Tꛛ1984꙾꓀돎ꯡ싇뗛때뵵덱끔ꪺ믢냬(꧳1993꙾꣖쇊McCaw Cellular꒽ꕱ)궫띳뙩ꑊꙡꓨ륱ꭈꖫ돵ꪺ쑶ꪧꅁ꣏륱ꭈ덝돆꡴닎ꪺꕄ굮ꯈꓡꇐRBOCsꇐ꒣쑀ꛛAT&T쇊뙒덱끔뫴룴ꪺ늣ꭾꅁꕈꞧꑪꛛ 1414 ꚳ쏶AT&Tꭄ떽띎놵ꚬNCRꪺꚬ쇊ꗳ뗻꛴ꅁꕩ냑ꛒBruce Wasserstein , “Big Deal 2000 and Beyond”, Warner Books,2000, p360-362Thomas Lys, Linda Vincent, ”An analysis of value destruction in AT&T’s acquisition of NCR”, Journal of Financial Economics Vol. 39,(1995) -378.ꅃ 45
ꑶꪺ쑶ꪧ맯ꓢꅁ신Ꙗꕾ냪ꪺ륱ꭈ덝돆꣑삳냓쇊뙒늣ꭾꅃꙝꚹꅁꢭ귝덝돆꣑삳냓덱끔ꩁ냈뒣꣑ꢤꛢꪺAT&Tꅁ결ꑆ뚰꒤뫫ꑏ맯ꖼ꣓ꕩ꿠궱셻꣬ꪺ덱끔ꩁ냈띾녪별ꅁꣃꕂꛒ뙱꣬꣤ꕌ덱끔ꩁ냈띾꒣쑀녎굱돦ꑕ꣬멘ꑕ꒧LucentNCR떥덱끔뭐륱뢣덝돆ꅁꙢꚹ놡뛕ꑕꅁ꒣녯꒣녎덝돆뭳덹륱뢣뭳덹뎡꓀돎ꕘ꣓ꅁꕈ샲녯ꟳꙨꪺ빐냢굱돦ꅃ 둎꣤늣띾쇍뛕꣓곝ꅁAT&TꙢ뻣Ꙙ덱끔쇍뛕뭐륱뢣떲Ꙙꪺ떦늤ꣃꭄꙢꑀ뙽ꥬ둎걏귓뿹뭾ꅁ곩걏꣤셚껄ꫭ뉻뭐꣖쇊ꓤꕉꪺ믹껦랸륓(premium)엽룪ꑈ뭻결AT&Tꪺ떦늤ꕇ걏Ꙣꭉ뭫ꛛꑶꪺꗸ띾믹귈ꅃꖻ곣ꡳ끷맯ꚹꑀ꓀돎껗ꪺ떦늤꓀꩒꙰ꑕꅇ (ꑀ) 뒣ꩀ떦늤뷕뻣덴ꯗ †AT&T륌ꕨ덑뗻결ꓓ륌썥ꑪꥸ릱꓆ꅁꙝ삳엜ꞽ뷕뻣떦늤ꪺ삳ꓓ멃ꅁ땍ꛓ륱ꭈ늣띾ꪺ뽅꽐쑶ꪧ뫴룴ꪺ삳ꗎꅁ꣏녯곬ꪺ뙩ꡂ덴ꯗꕛꟖꅁꕛꑗ껸뙏믝ꡄꅂ롧샙ꅂꗸ띾뗻믹ꥍ꒽Ꙁ걆떦ꪺ엜ꅁ꣏륱ꭈ늣띾맽꦳왛ꅁ덗볒썥ꑪꪺAT&T띑굮녎덱끔뺹ꟷ뭐륱ꭈꩁ냈ꑗꑕ듥ꑀ엩뻣Ꙙ꒣꒣꧶ꅁꟳꕩ꿠궰ꝃꗸ띾엩ꪺ껄뉶ꅆAT&T덺륌ꗸ띾꓀돎ꅁ녎뒣낪ꙕ껖ꓟꗸ띾궱맯륱ꭈ샴맒엜ꪺ떦늤삳덴ꯗ꣤뒣ꩀꗸ띾쑶ꪧꑏꅃ (ꑇ) 궰ꝃ꒺뎡뷄곰 †륌ꕨAT&T싇ꗑ꣖쇊덜Ꙩ꒽ꕱꕈꕛ녪꣤Ꙣ륱ꭈ늣띾ꪺ뱶암ꑏꅁ꒣Ꙑꪺ꒽ꕱꗸ띾ꓥ꓆ꅁ맯ꡍ떦ꭾ뷨뭐껄뉶ꚳ곛럭땻ꯗꪺ뱶암ꅁꑝ라ꙝ꒺뎡ꓥ꓆ꪺ뷄곰ꛓ꿓띬뻣엩ꗸ띾쑶ꪧꑏꅃꗧ둎걏AT&TꙢ덗볒ꑗꪺ쁵뛕ꖿꙮ덑뻣Ꙙ꒺뎡뎡꒧뚡꧒꿓뙏ꪺ껉뚡ꚨꖻ꧒ꧨ껸ꅃꙝꚹꅁ꓀돎ꯡꕩ뒣ꩀꡍ떦뱵꧊ꅁ궰ꝃ꒣Ꙑ띾뎡ꪺꝑ꽱 46
뷄곰ꅃ (ꑔ) ꓀돎ꯡꪺꑬ꒽ꕱꟳ녍ꩠ꧳꣤ꗸ띾롧샧땊쉉 륌ꕨAT&T엩꡴륌꧳썥ꑪꅁ쏸ꕈ녍ꩠꙢꡃ귓꒣Ꙑ믢냬ꪺ땯깩ꅆ꓀돎ꯡꅁꡃ귓띳꒽ꕱ꒣ꡍ떦ꛛꕄꅁꛛ굴곕솫ꅁꟳꕩ끷맯꣤늣띾믝ꡄꗾꑏ땯깩ꅃ (ꕼ) 륱ꭈ늣띾ꪺ뫞꣮꣺껸륱ꭈ덎ꪺ뙩ꡂ 과냪냪라꧳1996꙾Ꙑ띎띳ꪺ륱ꭈꩫ껗ꅁ꣺껸륱ꭈ늣띾ꪺ뫞꣮ꅁ돌ꪽ놵ꪺ뱶암둎걏륱ꭈ꒽ꕱ뙽꧱뙩ꑊꗽꭥ덑궭꣮ꪺꖫ돵믢냬ꅃAT&T뙽ꥬ뙩ꑊRBOCsꪺꖫ룜띾냈ꅁRBOCs뙩ꑊ덾냪믚룜냈ꅆꕴꕾꅁ덺륌륱ꭈꖫ돵ꪺ뙽꧱ꅁ꣏녯AT&T롧ꗑ떲Ꙙ냪ꕾ꣤ꕌꗁ샧ꪺ륱ꭈꗸ띾ꚨ셰럹뙩ꑊꕾ냪륱ꭈꖫ돵ꅁꕈꯘ멣냪믚덱ꭈ뫴룴ꅃꙁꕛꑗ때뵵덱끔ꅂ뫴믚뫴룴떥띳덎ꪺꕘ뉻ꅁ뒣꣑AT&Tꧺ엣ꪺ뻷라ꯂ꿙ꅃ덯ꞡ꣏녯AT&T뫞뉺맮쒱꣬ꖲ뚷녎꧒ꚳ룪랽뚰꒤Ꙣ꒽ꕱꪺ껖ꓟ륱ꭈ띾냈ꑗꅁ뫴룴덝걉륱뢣띾라꓀뒲꣤ꑏ뙱ꅃ (꒭) ꅵ귗ꖿ뿹뭾ꅶ(correction-of-a-mistake)ꪺ떲ꩇ †ꗑ꧳AT&T꧓꣼뻺ꕶꑗꪺ삣ꑏꇐ쎱뒻1984꙾ꗸ띾꓀돎ꪺꕱꩫꝐꡍꣳ쒳껑ꇐꕈ뫞뉺륌ꯗꛛꭈꅁ뇽Ꙣ륱뢣띾ꑗ깩뉻ꑀ땦ꚨ둎ꅁꣃ꒣뉺라ꖫ돵맯ꚹ꣖쇊껗ꪺ굴궱삳(AT&T믹ꑕ뙞)ꅁ냵띎ꞹꚨNCRꪺꚬ쇊껗ꅁꣃ덹ꚨ꒧ꯡꪺ덳꙾솫띬굴ꪺ뫮껄(-$30믵과꒸)ꅃꙝꚹꅁꚹꑀ꓀돎ꗳꑝꫭꗜꑆꅵ귗ꖿꅶꗽꭥ꧒ꗇꪺꚬ쇊ꅵ뿹뭾ꅶꅃ ꑕꫭ3-3결AT&T꧳1996꙾꓀돎ꭥꯡꪺ끝냈셚껄꓀꩒ꅃ녱1996 47
꣬1999꙾ꪺ뉢ꝑ쓦ꕩ곝ꕘꅁNCRꥍLucentꙢ꓀돎ꯡꪺꫭ뉻ꚳ엥ꑈꪺꚨꅁ꣤꒤NCRꙢ1995꙾ꥼꚳ녎꫱$믵과꒸ꪺ솫띬ꅁ1999꙾ꚳ$믵과꒸ꪺ곕빬ꅁ꓀돎ꪺ껄꽱ꕒ꓀땯뒧ꅃ ꫭ3-3?1996꙾AT&T꓀돎ꭥꯡ꒧끝냈셚껄꓀꩒ 돦ꛬꅇ$ million과꒸ AT&T꓀돎ꯡ AT&T꓀돎ꭥ 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 빐덦ꚬAT&T 62,391 53,223 51,319 50,515 79,609 75,904 69,351 ꑊ Lucent 38,303 31,806 27,661 23,286 NCR 3,289 3,577 3,687 3,946 빐덦ꚬꑊꙘ군 103,983 88,606 82,667 74,747 79,609 75,091 69,351 ꚨ뉶 % % % % % % 뉢ꝑ(띬) AT&T 3,428 6,398 4,638 5,908 139 4,710 (5,906) Lucent 4,766 1,035 449 (793) NCR 337 122 7 (109) 뉢ꝑ(띬)Ꙙ군 8,531 7,555 5,094 5,006 139 4,710 (5,906) ꚨ뉶 % % % 3501% % % 셠룪늣 AT&T 58,684 59,550 58,635 55,382 88,884 79,262 60,766 Lucent 38,775 29,363 23,811 22,626 NCR 4,895 4,892 5,376 5,280 룪늣Ꙙ군 102,354 93,805 87,822 83,288 88,884 79,262 60,766 ꚨ뉶 % % % % % % 룪늣돸륓뉶 % % % % % % % 뮡ꧺꅇ(1)ꖻ곣ꡳꕈꅵ빐덦ꚬꑊꅶꅂꅵ뉢ꝑ(띬)ꅶꅂꅵ셠룪늣ꅶ꣓뿅뙱AT&T꓀돎ꭥꯡꪺ셚껄ꫭ뉻ꅁ1996꙾꓀돎ꯡꪺ볆뻚ꗑꑔ깡꒽ꕱꪺꕛ셠꣓군뫢ꅃ (2)ꗑꅵ뉢ꝑ(띬)꙾ꯗꚨ뉶ꅶ뭐ꅵ셠룪늣ꚨ뉶ꅶꓱ룻ꅁꕩ곝ꕘ꓀돎ꯡ뉢ꝑ(띬)ꪺꚨꑪ교룻셠룪늣꣓녯Ꟗꅁꕴꕾꗑꅵ룪늣돸륓뉶ꅶꗧꕩ곝ꕘ꓀돎ꯡ꣤셚껄ꫭ뉻룻꣎ꅃ 룪껆꣓랽ꅇꖻ곣ꡳ뻣뉺 AT&Tꛛ꓀돎ꯡꙕꑬ꒽ꕱ꒧땯깩놡꙰ꑕꅇ (ꑀ) new AT&T Corp. ꓀돎ꯡꪺAT&T낣뙩ꛦꗸ띾꒺뎡덹ꕾꅁꙢꕈꦹAT&Tꪺ껖ꓟ띾냈Ꙣ덾냪믚륱룜ꩁ냈ꅁꗑ꧳륱ꭈ늣띾ꪺ샴맒엜ꇐꛦ냊 48
덱끔ꅂ뫴믚뫴룴ꪺ늱ꛦꇐ꣏녯AT&Tꖫ돵ꕥꚳ뉶샧ꚬꫭ뉻론론뇑끨ꅁ꣤ꛜ뒿ꛒ뱻녎룓뎡꓀돎ꕘꕨꚨ뽗ꗟ꒽ꕱꅆꚹꕾꅁꙁꕛꑗ띳ꪺ륱ꭈꩫ껗덱륌ꅁꕈ셰ꢹ덱ꭈꥥ귻라뙽꧱띳ꪺꛦ냊덱끔냵럓ꅁ꣏녯AT&TꙢꛦ냊덱끔ꪺ쑶ꪧ꿠ꑏ궿띐ꯂ꿙ꅃꙝꚹꅁAT&T뇽싇ꗑ꣖쇊ꪺꓨꚡꕈ쉘녩ꗸ띾Ꙣ볆ꛬ륱ꭈ껉ꕎꪺꪩ맏ꅁꕈꚹ녡믢ꗸ띾신ꮬꅁꗾ궱듂볆ꛬ륱ꭈ뻣Ꙙꩁ냈땯깩ꅃꚳ쏶꫱꣓AT&T궫굮ꪺ꣖쇊뭐Ꙙ룪맯뙈ꅁ녎꧳ꖻ론돌ꯡꝀꟳ룔뫉ꪺ뮡ꧺꅃ (ꑇ) Lucent Lucentꛛ녱꓀돎ꕘ꣓ꕈꯡꅁ셚껄ꪺꫭ뉻ꓱ륷듁쇙ꙮꅁ꣤꧳1998꙾ꪺꖫ귈곆ꛜ뙗뙖ꑆ귬ꗀ꒽ꕱAT&Tꅁꚨ결ꗾ과닄ꑀꑪ덱끔덝돆뭳덹냓ꅃ닦싷ꑆ륱ꭈꩁ냈ꪺꟴ뾣꣏Lucent떦늤꣣ꟳꑪꪺ뱵꧊ꅃꗑ꧳녍륱ꭈ덝돆ꪺ덮땷엩뭳덹ꅁꕝ걁낪덴룪껆뛇뿩뭹궵뛇뿩꡴닎ꅁ꣏Lucentꚨ결Baby Bellsꅂ꣤ꕌ륱ꭈ꒽ꕱꅂꛦ냊덱끔꒽ꕱꪺ뫴룴꡴닎꒧ꕄ굮덝돆꣑삳냓ꅁ샧ꚬꙝꚹꑪ둔뱗ꕛꅃꗑ꧳LucentꟖ덴ꙡ궱맯륱ꭈ샴맒엜냊ꅁ뭐ꢩ몸맪엧ꯇ곣땯돐띳ꪺ롽ꡂꟖꕂ곣땯뙏ꗎꝃꅁ꣏Lucent꒴꿠Ꙣ뽅꽐ꪺ쑶ꪧ샴맒꒤샲ꝑꅁ꣏꣤Ꙣ꓀돎꒣꣬ꑔ꙾꒺ꅁ믹녱$8ꑗ꣬$70ꅃ ꗑ꧳Lucent귬결AT&Tꪺ뫴룴꡴닎뎡ꅁꙝꚹ꣖쇊ꑆ덜Ꙩ깡볆뻚덝돆뱴냓ꅁꕈꡄꙢ볆뻚뛇뿩ꖫ돵꿠끬ꑗꗾ과닄ꑀꪺꯤ곬(Cisco)ꅆꙢꗺ엖뫴룴ꖫ돵ꓨ궱ꅁLucent꓀ꝏ꧳2000꙾2ꓫ5ꓫ꣖쇊ꗺ륱륳닕ꗳ꣑삳냓Ortel($믵과꒸)뎣라ꗺ엖냏냬뫴룴꡴닎꣑삳냓Chromatics Networks($45믵과꒸)ꅁꕈ뙩굸뎰ꑗ껼ꑗꗺ엖륱왬띾냈ꅃ 녱Lucent꫱듁ꪺ룪ꅂ꣖쇊떦늤셰럹맙꛱꣓곝ꅁLucentꖼ 49
꣓녎ꕈꗺ엖뫴룴뱥쁗때뵵덱끔늣ꭾ결땯깩ꕄ뙢ꅃ녱ꕈꑗꪺ놡꣓곝ꅁLucentꪺ떦늤뇄꣺꒣ꕾꕇꅇ(1)ꛛꛦꧮ룑썥ꑪꪺꗸ띾뚰많ꅁ뚰꒤ꓟꑏ롧샧ꕄ굮띾냈ꅆ(2)뙒ꑕꕈ덎뻉Ꙗ결ꕄꪺ꒽ꕱꅁꕈ꣖쇊ꪺꓨꚡ궰ꝃ뻇닟ꚱ뵵ꅂ론곙늣ꭾ뙽땯껉뚡ꅆ(3)뭐꣤ꕌ꒣Ꙑꪺ덱끔ꖫ돵ꪺ믢뻉떲럹ꙘꝀꅁ냑뭐띳덎ꪺ곣땯ꅃꑕꫭ3-4뒣꣑Lucent꫱듁ꪺꙘꝀ맯뙈ꅇ ꫭ3-4?Lucent꫱듁꒧ꙘꝀ맯뙈 ꙘꝀ맯뙈 ꙘꝀ띾냈꒺깥 Spring 3G때뵵낪덴룑ꡍꓨ껗 China Unicom 뱥쁗때뵵덱끔꡴닎 EMC 뒼뱺ꮬ뫴룴꙳꣺꡴닎 Global Crossing 껼꦳륱왬ꯘ롭 3Com 냏냬냓ꗎ뫴룴 룪껆꣓랽ꅇLucentꅂ꪿ꢦ껉돸 Lucent꧳2000꙾3ꓫ녎ꖦꑔ귓껖ꓟ띾뎡ꇐ뫴룴꡴닎뎡ꅂ냓띾덱끔꡴닎뎡ꕈ띌륱ꑬ뎡ꇐ샧ꚬꫭ뉻돌깴꒧냓띾덱끔꡴닎뎡ꪺꗸ띾덱끔꡴닎ꅂ냓ꗎ륱왬냏냬볆뻚뛇뿩뫴룴떥돦ꛬ꓀돎ꕘꕨꅁꚨꗟꑀ깡ꕳAvayaꪺꑬ꒽ꕱꅁ녎띾냈땊쉉뚰꒤Ꙣꗸ띾ꗎ뱥쁗볆뻚뛇뿩띾냈ꅁꕈꡄ녍ꩠꙢ낪ꚨꪺ믢냬ꅁ돐덹ꟳ낪ꪺꝑ볭ꅃ (ꑔ) NCR †Ꙣꖼ덑AT&T꣖쇊ꭥꅁNCR꒣샲ꝑꫭ뉻쁵늧ꅁ꣤띾뎡ꪺꯈꓡ볆곆ꛜ뒿ꓱIBM쇙Ꙩꅁ땍ꛓꙢ덑쇊꣖ꯡꅁꗑ꧳ꗸ띾ꓥ꓆ꪺ깴늧ꅁAT&T솿ꡄ뫞뉺띳ꅁꩠ궫ꛦ빐ꖼꕊ닓ꛒ뙱믹껦꒧굱ꥷꅁꕈ교NCRꡃ꙾뷟뿺ꅆꙢ꓀돎ꯡ꒣신솫결곕ꅁꟳ덶꙾ꙡꑪ둔ꚨꅁꗑꚹꕩ곝ꕘꗸ띾ꓥ꓆뭐뫞뉺맯ꗸ띾꒧샲꽱꒧궫굮뱶암ꅃꗘꭥNCRꙢ룪껆규쁸(data mining)뭐ꛛ냊쉤귻뻷(ATM)ꪺ늣ꭾꙢꗾ뉹뇆ꙗꭥ둘ꙗꅃ 50
ꑔꅂ?AT&T꧳1999ꅂ2000꙾땯ꛦ끬시 †ꅵ굮엽꒽ꕱ꒺꣣ꚳ낪ꚨ볧ꑏꪺ띾뎡샲녯ꖫ돵룻낪ꪺ뗻믹꒧냟ꑀꓨꩫ꒣걏녎ꖦ꓀돎ꕘꕨꅁ둎걏결ꖦ땯ꛦ끬시ꅶꅃ AT&T덯ꚸꪺ꓀돎ꓨꚡꅁ걏결멘ꑕ띾뎡땯ꛦ끬시ꅁꕈ걍룓띾뎡뽗꽓ꪺ셚껄ꫭ뉻ꅁ뒣낪룓뎡ꖫ돵ꪺꪾꙗꯗꅁꚳꝕ꧳뛒뚰룓띾뎡ꖼ꣓룪꧒믝ꪺ룪ꅃAT&T꓀ꝏ꧳1999꙾2000꙾결멘ꑕ꒧ꚳ뵵륱뗸뎡Liberty Media Group때뵵덱ꭈ뎡AT&T Wireless Group땯ꛦ끬시15ꅃ꯹ꚳAT&T멘ꑕ띾뎡끬시ꪺꩆ꒴결AT&Tꪺ뒶덱ꩆꅁꛓꭄ룓띾뎡ꪺꩆꅁꛜ꧳ꝑꪺ땯꧱ꭨ뻚AT&Tꪺꝑ걆떦ꛓꥷꅃꙝꚹꅁAT&T맪ꑗꣃꖼ녎덯꣢뎡꓀돎ꚨ뽗ꗟꪺꑬ꒽ꕱꅁꖦ귌꒴ꙢAT&T뚰많꒺쑾쓲샧륂ꅆꚹꕾꅁ땯ꛦ끬시ꑝꕩꢾꓮ룓뎡ꙢꡓꚳAT&TꙐ띎ꑕ덑ꭄ떽띎놵ꚬꅃ맏3-3결AT&TꙢ땯ꛦ꣢ꚸ끬시ꯡꪺ앶떲멣16ꅃAT&T멘ꑕꪺ꣢귓끬시꓀ꝏ걍귓ꝏ띾뎡ꪺ곕빬셚껄ꅁꛓAT&Tꪺ뒶덱ꭨ걍뻣귓ꗸ띾뚰많ꪺ셚껄ꫭ뉻ꅃ꣢귓끬시꒴쓝꧳AT&Tꪺ앶떲멣ꅁꣃꖼꛛAT&T닦싷ꕘ꣓ꅃ 15 ꕩ냑ꛒThe Merger of AT&T and TCI proxy statement/prospectusAT&T Wireless Group proxy statement/prospectusꅃ 16 AT&T꧳1999꙾3ꓫꕈ$480믵과꒸꣖쇊TCI껉ꅁTCI결멘ꑕꑔ귓띾뎡ꇐTCI GroupꅂLiberty Media GroupꅂꕈTCI Ventures GroupꙀ땯ꛦꑆꑔ귓끬시ꅁꣃ뭐AT&TꙢꙘ꣖껉꣖쇊ꮴ곹신뒫결AT&T뒶덱New Liberty Media Group끬시ꅇ ?(1) TCI Group끬시 ꉷꉷ> ꅵAT&T뒶덱ꅶꅆ ?(2) Liberty Media Group끬시 ꉷꉷ> ꅵNew Liberty Media Group끬시ꅶꅆ ?(3) TCI Ventures Group 끬시 ꉷꉷ> ꅵNew Liberty Media Group끬시ꅶꅆ ?(4) TCI 꽓ꝏ ꉷꉷ> ꅵAT&T뒶덱ꅶ+ꅵ뉻ꝑꅶꅵNew Liberty Media Group끬시ꅶ+ꅵ뉻ꝑꅶꅆ 51
맏3-3?AT&T땯ꛦ꣢ꚸ끬시ꯡ꒧앶떲멣 AT&T Wireless GroupAT&T Common StockNew Liberty Media 끬시ꩆ Group 뒶덱ꩆ Group 끬시ꩆAT&T WirelessGroup끬시AT&T 뒶덱New LibertyM끬e시di(걍AT&T a Group(걍AT&T Wireless GroupCommon (걍New Liberty셚껄Stock Group셚껄Media Group))셚껄)AT&T룪껆꣓랽ꅇꖻ곣ꡳ뻣뉺ꅁAT&T Wireless Group proxy statement/prospectus †놵ꑕ꣓녎놴끑결꛳AT&T땯ꛦAT&T Wireless GroupNew Liberty Media Group끬시ꅁꛓꭄ녎ꖦ귌꓀돎ꕘꕨꚨ뽗ꗟꪺꑬ꒽ꕱꅇ (ꑀ) AT&T꣖쇊TCI(귬Liberty Media Groupꪺꗀ꒽ꕱ)꧒늣ꗍꪺ냓앁앵빐ꕈ꧒뱗ꕛ땯ꛦꪺ뒶덱ꅁ라땽쓀AT&Tꪺꡃ곕빬ꅁ뻉교믹ꑕ뙞ꅆ땯ꛦ끬시낣ꑆꙢ라군덂뉺ꑗ엜ꕾꅁꑝ라꣏녯AT&T뎡ꗷꪺ뒶덱ꗦ뒫ꚨNew Liberty Media Group끬시ꅁꚳꝕ꧳듮뮴곕빬ꪺ땽쓀껄ꩇꅁ맯믹ꚳ쎭ꥷꝀꗎꅃ (ꑇ) AT&Tꪺ뫞뉺ꕩ싇끬시ꪺ꣏ꗎꛓ샲녯ꗸ띾꓀돎ꪺꝑ꽱ꅁꑓ꒣교꧳ꖢꕨ맯룓뎡ꪺ놱꣮앶ꅃ둎ꩫꯟꑗ꣓뮡ꅁ덯꣢귓띾뎡꒴쓝쉫ꙢAT&T Common Stock Group멘ꑕ꒧ꑀ뎡꓀ꅃ 52
(ꑔ) 끬시ꪺ띾뎡녎끬시룓뎡꧒덂꒧늣띾뒺껰ꪬꩰꅁꙢ귓ꝏ늣띾꒤뗸결ꅵ꿂뫩롧샧ꅶꪺ뽗ꗟ꒽ꕱꅃꙝꚹꅁAT&T Wireless Group끬시Liberty Media Group끬시녎걍ꗘꭥ럭공ꪺ때뵵덱끔ꚳ뵵둃엩띾ꅁ꣤셚껄ꫭ뉻녎귢빲뻣엩AT&T Common Stock Groupꅃ (ꕼ) ꗑ꧳땯ꛦ끬시ꪺ뎡ꅝ때뵵덱끔뭐ꚳ뵵륱ꞡ꣣ꚳ낪ꚨ꧊늣띾ꅞ꒴ꭏ꽤ꙢAT&T뚰많꒺ꅁ걇AT&Tꕩꕈ녎뫴ꅝꚨ보ꮬ늣띾ꅞ꧒늣ꗍꪺ룪쁵ꗽ룪꧳룓뎡ꅁꕈꝑ뚰많뚡룪늣꒧늾신ꅁ닕슴떲멣ꪺ엜룻ꗸ띾꓀돎깥꧶ꅃ (꒭) AT&T뫞뉺뚥뱨낣ꑆ녎ꙝ끬시ꪺ땯ꛦꛓ꣣ꚳ볧Ꙣꪺ뫞뉺ꑗ꒧셚껄뮤ꙝꇐ꙰귻ꑵ늼뿯뻜앶(ESOP)ꇐ꒧ꕾꅁꑓ꒣라꙰ꗸ띾꓀돎꿫돠ꖢ덗볒롧샙ꪺ껄ꩇꅁ땯ꛦ끬시ꪺꓨꚡꭨ귝꣣ꑗ굺꣢뚵쁵쉉ꅃ (꒻) AT&T띑뒣꣑뻣Ꙙ덱끔ꩁ냈꣓쉘ꑪꖫ돵ꕥꚳ뉶ꅁꑝ둎걏ꑀ귓깡깸곩믝ꑀ녩녢돦둎ꕩꕈ뻖ꚳꕝ걁뭹궵뛇뿩(뫴띾냈ꅂꛦ냊덱끔띾냈)ꅂ룪껆뛇뿩(뫴믚뫴룴ꇐ륱룜뵵룴왬뵵)ꅂꕈ둃엩꒺깥꣑삳(ꚳ뵵륱뵵쁗륄띾냈)ꅁ꙰ꚹꅁ떲Ꙙ멘ꑕ끬시띾뎡AT&T Wireless GroupNew Liberty Media Group녎ꚳꝕ꧳ AT&Tꪺ롧샧떦늤ꅁ뎡뚡룪랽ꪺ륂ꗎꗑAT&T뫞뉺닎쑷덗릺ꅁꑝ둎걏ꙝ결꒽ꕱꪺ놱꣮앶둸뒤AT&T뚰많뢳라ꓢꑗꅁ꣏녯뎡뚡ꪺꗦ꧶쁗셣꒧ꕜ꿠녯ꕈꕒ꓀땯뒧ꅃ (ꑃ) 얲꧳AT&T뚰많ꕝꝴ때뵵덱끔ꚳ뵵륱뗸곛럭꣣볧ꑏꪺ뎡ꅁ꣏ꖫ돵쏒꣩꓀꩒깶Ꙣ낵AT&Tꪺꗸ띾믹귈뗻꛴껉ꙝ꣤뗻믹ꪺ뷆싸꧊ꛓ꧶ꝃ꛴꣤믹귈ꅁꑝ둎걏꓀꩒깶뻕꧳륷듺돦ꑀ늣띾ꪺ곕빬믹ꅁꛓ맯꧳뻖ꚳꙨ귓띾뎡ꪺꗸ띾뚰많ꭨ꒣꧶륷듺럇뵔ꅃ 53
ꙝꚹꅁAT&T땯ꛦ끬시ꕩ꣏ꑗ굺놡ꩰ슲돦꓆ꅁ꣏꓀꩒깶Ꙣ낵뗻꛴껉녎꣤뎡뗸결돦ꑀ늣띾꣓곝ꯝꅁ꙰ꚹ꿠ꟳ럇뵔ꙡ떹꒩Ꙙ뉺ꪺꖫ돵믹귈뗻꛴17ꅃ 냲꧳ꕈꑗꪺ뉺ꗑꅁꖻ곣ꡳ꧒쉫꿇ꕘAT&T땯ꛦ끬시ꪺ귬ꙝꅃ결꛳AT&T꧳1995-96꙾뙩ꛦ닄ꑇꚸꗸ띾꓀돎껉(닄ꑀꚸ걏냲꧳ꭄꛛ쑀꧊꓀돎ꅁ과냪ꕱꩫ뎡ꕈꚫ뮶뒵ꪺ뉺ꗑ녪꣮AT&T꓀돎)ꅁ꒣ꕈ땯ꛦ끬시ꪺꓨꚡ꣓륂Ꝁꅁꛓ걏꓀돎멘ꑕꑔ띾뎡ꚨ뽗ꗟꑬ꒽ꕱꅃꕩ꿠ꪺ귬ꙝ꙰ꑕꅇ (ꑀ) AT&TꙢ냵ꛦ덱끔뭐륱뢣뻣Ꙙꪺ떦늤ꖢ뇑ꯡꅁ뭻결곩ꚳ녍ꩠ꧳륱ꭈꪺ껖ꓟ띾냈ꅁꑾꚳꝕ꧳떽뻣엩ꗸ띾ꪺ셚껄뒣ꩀꩆ믹귈ꅃꙝꚹꅁAT&T녎놱꣮앶뭐롧샧앶ꑕ꧱ꛜꙕ띾뎡ꅁ엽꣤ꛛ굴곕솫ꅁꙕ뎡ꓖꑆAT&Tꪺꭏ앀돊ꅁ굙꒣닸띱ꛛ녪ꅁꙢ륱ꭈ늣띾ꪺ쑶ꪧ볩걹꒤ꯜ깥꧶덑꣖쇊귋뎬ꅃ (ꑇ) AT&T꒣Ᶎ뇦ꑀꪽꝑꗎ뎡뚡룪늣늾신꒧ꓨꚡꅁ녎롧샧샲ꝑꪺ덾냪믚륱룜띾냈뎡룉뙋솫띬ꪺNCR륱뢣뎡ꅃꛓꕂꅁ꓀돎ꪺ볒ꚡꕩꕈ엽ꖫ돵룪ꑈ뭻결AT&Tꪺ띾냈뵤돲꒣ꙁꕝꝴ륱뢣뫴룴덝돆뭳덹ꅁꛓ땯ꛦ끬시ꭨ라덑뗸결룓띾뎡꒴쓝꧳AT&T뚰많꒺ꅃ ꚳ얲꧳끬시뭐ꗸ띾꓀돎꓀ꝏꙢ맯꒽ꕱ뫊뫞꡴닎늣ꗍ꒣Ꙑ땻ꯗꪺꝑ꽱뷄곰ꅁ걇ꕈꫭ3-5쓄쓀ꑆ꣢뫘ꗸ띾궫뻣떦늤꓀ꝏ맯ꩆ뭐꒽ꕱ꒺뎡ꕾ뎡ꝑ깠쏶ꭙꑈꪺ뱶암ꅃ꧒뿗ꪺꝑ깠쏶ꭙꑈꅁ걏굙꒽ꕱꪺ뉢ꚬ꽱곝ꚨꑀ귓겣ꅁ꓀끴떹덜Ꙩ맯꒽ꕱꚳ뷐ꡄ앶ꪺꑈꅃ덯ꑈ꒣ꕝ걁뒣꣑룪꣓ꚨꗟꣃ뫻꯹꒽ꕱꪺꩆꅁꑝꕝ걁뛅앶ꑈꅂ꒽ꕱ뫞뉺ꑈ귻ꥍ 17 ꚳ쏶끬시땯ꛦ꓀꩒깶륷꛴ꪺ맪쏒곣ꡳꅁꕩ냑ꛒJulia D’souza, John Jacob, ”Why firms issue targeted stock ”, Journal of Financial Economics 56,(2000) -483. 54
귻ꑵꅃꕴꕾꅁ걆ꦲꑝ걏ꚳ뷐ꡄ앶ꪺꑈꅁꙝ결ꖦ맯ꗸ띾ꪺ꧒녯뷒땼ꅃꕌ귌ꡃ귓ꑈ뎣뭐꒽ꕱꚳꝑ깠쏶ꭙꅁꕂꦼꚹ뚡ꪺꝑ꽱ꕩ꿠ꣃ꒣ꣳ뷕ꑀ교ꅃ ꫭ3-5?끬시뭐ꗸ띾꓀돎맯꒽ꕱ뫊뫞꡴뫞꒤ꝑ깠쏶ꭙꑈꪺ뱶암 ꝑ깠쏶ꭙꑈ 끬시 ꗸ띾꓀돎 맯꧳끬시뎡꧒돐덹ꪺꗑ꧳때ꩫ놱꣮ꑬ꒽ꕱꪺ롧ꗀ꒽ꕱꩆ곕빬꿠ꗎ꣓쁶쇙ꗀ꒽ꕱꪺ샧앶ꅁꑝ때ꩫꛛ꣤녯꣬곕 굴뛅ꥍ땯꧱뉻ꝑꅃ 빬꒧톺ꩠꅁꑝ쥠믝맯ꑬ꒽ꕱ뛅앶ꑈ굴덤ꅃ 때ꩫꞹꗾ뫊럾룓뎡꒧륂ꩆꞹꗾ둸놱ꑬ꒽ꕱ륂Ꝁꅁ뻡ꓟꗀ꒽ꕱ뫞뉺맯꣤Ꝁꅂ겣뢳라ꚨ귻ꥍ뫞ꑬ꒽ꕱꩆ 뎡꒧샧륂떦늤ꛒ뙱ꥍ끬뉺ꅁꛛꛦꡍꥷ룪ꅂ뿄시ꩆꪺꝑ꽱낵ꕘꚸ굮룪뭐ꝑ걆떦ꅁ꒣꣼ꗀ꒽ꡍꥷꅃ ꕱ꧒뱶암ꅃ 끬시뎡꒴Ꙣꗀ꒽ꕱ뚰ꑬ꒽ꕱꪺ끝냈떲멣룪늣뛅앶ꑈ많꒧ꭏ앀돊ꑕꅁꝑꗎꗀ꒽ꕱ덗볒꒣굙ꗀ꒽ꕱ꣓녯ꑪꅁ ꪺ끝냈떲멣ꅁ뛅앶룻ꚳꭏ룪ꚨꖻ룻낪ꅁ꣏뻡ꭏ뛅믙ꅃ 앶엜녯룻때ꭏ믙ꅃ 뫞뉺꒴뒤ꚳ맯끬시뎡ꪺ놱맯꓀돎ꪺꑬ꒽ꕱ꒣꣣ꚳ떴 ꣮앶뭐롧샧앶ꅃ 맯ꪺ놱꣮앶ꥍ롧샧앶ꅃ 끬시뎡ꪺ귻ꑵꙝ끬시꓀돎뽗ꗟꪺꑬ꒽ꕱ귻ꑵꙝ돦뽗걍룓뎡ꪺ곕빬꣤믹뽗ꗟ걍룓뎡ꪺ귻ꑵ 셚껄ꅁ걇귻ꑵ뽅쁹군릺ꪺ꙳곕빬셚껄ꅁ걇귻ꑵ뽅쁹군Ꙣ꣏녯꣤ꑵꝀ룻뷦ꑏꅃ 릺ꪺ꙳Ꙣ꣏녯꣤ꑵꝀ룻뷦ꑏꅃ ꗑ꧳끬시땯ꛦ쓝ꝋ땼ꗦꗸ띾꓀돎Ꙣ걙놡ꩰꑕ뚷걆ꦲ꧶ꅁꙝꚹ룻꧶ꓞ끟쏒뫞라ꪺ둎꣤늼꒧룪ꖻꝑ녯뎡꓀ 녱쑙뭻ꥷꅃ 뷒땼ꅁ걆ꦲ뚷뫊럾꒽ꕱ걏ꝟꚳ끫멼땼놡ꅃ 룪껆꣓랽ꅇꖻ곣ꡳ뻣뉺 ꕼꅂ?AT&Tꪺꗸ띾꣖쇊겡냊 곬덎ꪺ뙩ꡂꅁ꣏녯냏냬륱ꭈꖫ돵냏냬ꥍ덾륱ꭈꖫ돵뚡ꪺ늣띾ꗍ멁ꅁꑪꑪꙡ엜ꑆ륱ꭈ늣띾ꮫꪽ뻣Ꙙꪺ꒺깥ꅃꙢꗽꭥ꧒뒣꣬ꪺꅁ 55
덺륌때뵵덱끔덎ꪺ뙽땯ꅁꕈ뭐냏냬꧊ꚳ뵵륱뗸띾ꙘꝀꅁ꣏녯AT&TꙢ꒣륈MFJꩫ껗ꪺꭥ뒣ꑕꅁ궫띳뙩ꑊ냏냬륱ꭈꖫ돵ꅁꕈ뒣꣑뭹궵볆뻚뛇뿩ꩁ냈ꅃꚹꯡꅁAT&Tꛛ1984꙾ꗸ띾꓀돎ꕈ꣓ꅁꭋ뎰쓲룳ꑊꪺ곛쏶믢냬ꕝ걁룪껆뛇뿩ꩁ냈ꅂ냏냬륱룜ꅂ뫴룴ꅂ때뵵덱ꭈꅂꚳ뵵륱뗸둃엩꒺깥꣑삳냓떥ꅁ꒣쉟뙩ꛦ꣖쇊ꅂ떦늤셰럹떥ꓨꚡꅁꕈ뻣Ꙙ륱ꭈ늣띾ꅁ뒣꣑ꯈꓡꟳꞹ뻣ꪺꩁ냈ꅁꣃ뒣ꩀꖻꢭꙢ냪믚륱ꭈ늣띾ꪺ쑶ꪧꑏꅁꕈ듁ꚨ결ꑀ덎뻣ꙘꪺꙨ둃엩륱ꭈ꒽ꕱꅃꫭ3-6결AT&Tꛛ1996꙾ꕈ꣓궫굮ꪺ꣖쇊Ꙙ룪껗ꅇ ꫭ3-6?1996꙾꣓AT&T궫굮ꪺ꣖쇊ꅂꙘ룪떦늤셰럹껗 뫋럇ꖫ돵껖ꓟ띾냈 ꣖쇊뭐Ꙙ룪맯뙈 껉뚡썂 뫴룴 ꖫ꒺륱ꗾ뉹륱때뵵덱ꚳ뵵륱($bil.) 룜 ꭈ ꭈ 뗸 Tele-Communications 1998/0648 ꆷ ꆷ ꆷ Inc. (TCI) Teleport Communications 1998/0111 ꆷ ꆷ ꆷ Group (TCG) MetroNet 1999/037 ꆷ ꆷ ꆷ Communication IBM Global Network 1998/125 ꆷ ꆷ Vanguard Cellular 1999/031 ꆷ MediaOne Inc. 1999/0462 ꆷ ꆷ ꆷ British Telecom 1998/0710 ꆷ ꆷ Time Warner 1999/02 ꆷ 룪껆꣓랽ꅇꖻ곣ꡳ ꖻ론녎AT&T룳ꑊ륱ꭈ구ꗍ곛쏶믢냬꣓뮡ꧺAT&TꙢ륱ꭈꖫ돵ꪺꗸ띾롧샧떦늤ꅃ (ꑀ) 뙩ꑊꛦ냊덱끔ꖫ돵 AT&T꧳1992꙾룪McCaw Cellular꒽ꕱ30%앶ꅁ쁈ꯡ꧳1993꙾ꕈ$126믵과꒸ꅝ늼ꚬ쇊ꅞꖿꚡꚬ쇊McCawꅝ꒧ꯡꟳꙗ 56
결AT&T Wirelessꅁꣃ결꣤땯ꛦ끬시ꅞꅁ뒣꣑덾륱룜ꛦ냊덱끔ꪺ뻣Ꙙꩁ냈18ꅃ쁈ꯡAT&T꧳1999꙾3ꓫꕈ$10믵과꒸꣖쇊Vanguard Cellularꅁꕈ쉘녩AT&TꙢ때뵵덱끔ꪺꖫ돵ꚳ뉶ꅃ귈녯ꑀ뒣ꪺ걏ꅁ과냪ꕱꩫ뎡뒿꧳1982꙾궭꣮AT&Tꪺ롧샧띾냈뵤돲ꅁAT&Tꕩ싇ꗑꛦ냊륱룜뫴룴ꪺ꙳Ꙣꛓ귝샧냏냬꧊륱룜ꖫ돵띾냈ꅁꛦ냊덱끔덯뫘띳덎ꪺꕘ뉻ꅁ슶륌ꑆꩫꕏꑗꪺ궭꣮ꅁꑝ둎걏뛇닎ꪺRBOCsꪺ륱룜뵵룴ꅁ꣏AT&TꕩꙐ껉뒣꣑ꯈꓡ덾륱룜냏냬꧊ꛦ냊덱끔ꩁ냈ꅁ덯걏럭껉ꩫꕏꝀ덗뵤껉꧒띑꒣꣬ꪺꅃ뱶암꧒ꅁRBOCsꪺꚬꑊꑪ둔ꑕ궰ꅁꕝ걁냏냬꧊륱룜덱룜뙱ꪺ듮ꓖꅁꕈAT&T덾륱룜뚷덺륌RBOCsꪺ닗뫝륱룜뵵룴꒧벷놵뙏ꗎꪺ띬ꖢꅃꙝꚹꅁꙕBaby Bellsꑝ뙩ꛦꑀ덳ꛪꪺ꣖쇊ꛦ냊덱끔꒽ꕱꪺ겡냊꣓ꕛ녪쑶ꪧ쁵뛕ꅃ (ꑇ) 룳ꑊꚳ뵵뱥쁗(broadband)뫴룴 †AT&T꧳1998ꅂ1999꙾ꗽꯡꕈ$480믵과꒸$620믵과꒸ꅁ꣖쇊꣢깡ꚳ뵵륱뗸쁗륄꡴닎뱴냓ꇐTCI?(Tele-Communications, Inc.)19(cable networks)MediaOne Group(cable operatorꅁ1998꙾ꛛUS West꓀돎ꕘ꣓)ꅁꚨꗟꑆꅵAT&T Broadbandꅶ띾돦ꛬꅁꚨ결ꗾ과돌ꑪꪺꚳ뵵륱뗸꒽ꕱꅃ꒣뛈ꖿꚡ녱뛇닎륱ꭈ늣띾꓁ꑊ볆뻚놵꣺ꪺ뱥쁗ISPꩁ냈ꅁꟳ녱ꑗ듥쁗뱥꣑삳냓ꅁ신뻔ꅵ돌ꯡꑀ극ꅶꪺ깡깸놵꣺ꖫ돵ꅁ삻뇑Time Warnerꅁꚨ결ꗾ과돌ꑪꪺ왬뵵꒽ꕱꅁ뒣꣑ꗎꓡ볆ꛬ뭹궵(digital telephony)ꅂ볆뻚덱끔ꅂ볆ꛬ뗸끔(digital video)뭐ꚳ뵵륱뗸꒬냊ꚡꪺ깔볖론ꗘ떥뱥쁗뫴룴ꑗ꧒꣣ꚳꪺ3CꙨ 18 ꚳ쏶AT&Tꚬ쇊McCaw Cellularꪺ뉠ꑊ놴끑ꅁꕩ냑빜Robert F. Bruner, ”Case Studies in FINANCE, McCaw Cellular Communications: The AT&T/McCaw Merger Negotiation” Irwin McGraw-Hill 3rd 19 AT&TꙘ꣖TCIꪺ썂맪믚ꑗ삳룓결$680믵과꒸ꅁꙝ결쇙ꕝ걁뙒Ꙟꗾ과닄ꑇꑪCLEC(Competitive Local Exchange Carrier) Teleportꪺꗷꅂ뱥쁗ISP--Excite@HomeꪺꗷꅂTCI뻖ꚳ꒧Liberty Media떥Ꙁ곹$200믵과꒸ꅃ 57
둃엩ꕜ꿠ꩁ냈ꅃꟳ궫굮ꪺ걏ꅁAT&T싇ꚳ뵵륱뗸왬뵵ꕈ뙩ꑊ냏냬륱룜ꖫ돵ꅁ맯뉻꙳ꪺꕼ깡RBOCs꣤ꕌ냏냬륱룜꒽ꕱ덹ꚨ곛럭ꑪꪺꯂ꿙ꅃ (ꑔ) ꣺녯뫴룴덎ꩁ냈 AT&T꧳1998꙾12ꓫꕈ$50믵과꒸꣖쇊IBMꗾ뉹뫴룴띾뎡(Global Network business)ꅁꛓ싹ꓨꑝ라ꙁ뙩ꑀꡂ곛꒬뒣꣑ꕾꕝ(outsourcing)껗ꅁ꒺깥ꕝ걁AT&T녎꣤ꯈꓡ덂뉺꡴닎뭐룪껆꒤ꓟ뫞뉺ꑵꝀꕾꕝ떹IBMꅁꛓIBMꭨ라녎꣤ꗾ뉹꧒믝ꪺ뎡꓀궫ꑪ뫴룴ꕾꕝ떹AT&Tꯘ멣ꅃ꣖쇊ꪺ귬ꙝꅁꕄ굮걏띑귉궫IBMꗽ뙩ꪺ뫴룴덎꣓ꯘ멣AT&Tꗎꓡꓩ꽱ꚨꪺ볆뻚덱끔ꩁ냈ꅁ싇ꕈ뒣꣑ꯈꓡ뭹궵볆뻚덱ꭈꪺꗾꓨꛬ룪껆뛇뿩ꩁ냈ꅁ맯AT&Tꪺ뫴룴ꩁ냈뭐뻣엩샧ꚬ늣ꗍ곛럭ꑪꪺ뫮껄ꅃ (ꕼ) 듂냪믚륱ꭈꖫ돵땯깩 AT&T꧳1998꙾7ꓫ뭐굞냪륱끔(BT, British Telecom)Ꙙ룪ꚨꗟꑀ깡냪믚륱룜꒽ꕱꇐꅵConcertꅶꅁꕈ뒣꣑룳냪ꗸ띾냪믚륱룜ꩁ냈ꅁꣃ녎룪곣땯띳ꑀꕎꪺ덱끔덎ꅆꕈ뒣꣑냪믚때뵵ꩁ냈ꪺꙘ룪꒽ꕱꇐꅵAdvanceꅶꅁꙘꝀ꒺깥ꕝ걁AT&T뭐BTꙘ룪$믵과꒸뙒ꑕꕛ꺳ꑪ돌ꑪꛦ냊륱룜꒽ꕱRogers Cantel Mobile Communicationsꑔ꓀꒧ꑀ앶ꅁꕈꙘꝀ꺳ꑕꓩꖻ륱끔Japan Telecom30%ꪺꗷꅃ (꒭) ꙁ뙩ꑊ냏냬륱룜ꖫ돵 †AT&T꧳1998꙾1ꓫꕈ$110믵과꒸ꪺꕎ믹꣖쇊Teleport Communicationsꅁ덯뚵ꗦ꧶엽AT&Tꙁ뙩ꑊ냏냬륱ꭈꖫ돵ꅁ뒣꣑ꯈꓡ덾ꖫ룜뻣Ꙙ꧊ꩁ냈ꅃꑝꗑ꧳Teleportꑷꯘꗟꞹ뻣ꪺꗺ엖꡴ 58
닎ꅁ꣏녯AT&Tꕩ뒣꣑ꗽ뙩ꪺ뫴룴룪껆뛇뿩ꩁ냈ꅃ ꒭ꅂ?AT&T꧳2000꙾ꪺ닄ꑔꚸ꓀돎 2000꙾10ꓫ25ꓩAT&T뙩ꛦ꒽ꕱꕶꑗ닄ꑔꚸꪺꑪ덗볒ꗸ띾꓀돎ꅁ뫙결ꅵProject Grand Slamꅶ군땥ꅃ덹ꚨ덯ꚸ꓀돎ꛦ냊돌ꕄ굮ꪺ뻉ꓵ뵵걏2000꙾ꪺ륷꛴샧ꚬꚨ듮뵷ꛜ%ꅁ뉢ꝑ듮ꓖ43%(녱1999꙾ꪺ$믵꣬2000꙾ꪺ$믵과꒸)ꅁꕈ2000꙾꦳ꪺꡃ뉻ꝑ녱$ꑪ둔ꑕ뙞ꛜ$ꅃꛓ2000꙾ꑗꕢ꙾과냪ꖫꪺ꒣꺶ꅁ꣏녯AT&T궱셻ꭥ꧒ꖼꚳꪺ뷄삻ꅁꙁꕛꑗAT&T냵ꛦꪺꅵ뻣Ꙙ꧊륱ꭈꩁ냈ꅶ떦늤ꖢ뇑20ꅁ꣏녯AT&Tꪺ룪때ꩫꙞꚬꅁ덂맒ꑑ꓀꒣ꝑꅃꙝꚹꅁ맯꧳AT&Tꪺ믹녱2000꙾낪쉉$61꒸ꖪꕫꑕ뙞ꛜ$ꪺ믹ꛬꣃ꒣띐꣬띎ꕾꅃ 닄ꑔꚸ꓀돎겡냊ꕩ꓀결꣢뚥걱ꅁ닄ꑀ뚥걱걏꧳2000꙾10ꓫꯅꖬ군땥꧳ꖼ꣓ꑀꛜ꣢꙾꒺덺륌ꑀ덳ꛪ뷆싸ꪺꗸ띾꓀돎땯ꛦ끬시ꪺꓨꚡꅁꞹꚨ뚰많ꪺ닄ꑔꚸ꓀돎ꛦ냊ꅁꕈ띳돐ꕼ귓꒽뙽땯ꛦꪺ꒽ꕱꅁ륷군꧳2002꙾ꞹꚨꗘ볐ꅁAT&Tꪺ귬ꩆ녎뻖ꚳꕼ깡꒽ꕱꪺ끴ꅃ닄ꑇ뚥걱걏꧳2000꙾11ꓫ15ꓩꯅꝇ녎ꕴꑀ뒿땯ꛦ끬시ꪺ뎡New Liberty Media Group(꧳1999꙾꣖쇊TCIꛓ녯)꓀돎ꚨ뽗ꗟꪺꑬ꒽ꕱꅁ륷군꧳2001꙾꒤ꭥꞹꚨ꒽뙽ꑗꖫꪺ냊Ꝁꅃ귬New Liberty Media Group끬시ꪺꩆ녎꧳꓀돎ꯡ신뒫결New Liberty Media Group뒶덱ꩆꅃꚹꯡNew Liberty Media Group녎ꕩꛛꛦ쑷놹꧒믝룪ꅁꕈꛛꛦꡍꥷ꣖쇊떲럹떥겡냊ꅁ뒣ꩀꙢꚳ뵵륱뗸뱥쁗둃엩늣띾ꪺ쑶ꪧꑏꅃ ꗘꭥAT&TꙀ꓀결ꕼꑪ껖ꓟ띾냈뎡ꅁ뻣뉺꙰ꫭ3-7ꅇ 20 과냪뗛ꙗꪺ륱ꭈ띾압냝꒽ꕱYankee Group꧳2000꙾땯ꫭꑆꑀꗷ뷕걤ꅁ꣤꒤돌궫굮ꪺ떲뷗걏과냪깡깸꣏ꗎ꧒뿗ꪺꅵ뻣Ꙙ꧊륱ꭈꩁ냈ꅶ꒧ꓱ뉶꒣꣬1%ꅃ덯뚵뷕걤쇙ꕝ걁ꅁ꣏ꗎꙐꑀ깡ꖫ꒺륱룜뭐덾륱룜ꩁ냈ꪺ껸뙏ꅁ륆24%ꅆ꣏ꗎꙐꑀ깡륱룜ꕛꚳ뵵륱뗸ꩁ냈ꪺꅁꚳ3%ꅆ꣏ꗎꙐꑀ깡륱룜ꅂꚳ뵵륱뗸ꅂ뫴룴ꩁ냈ꪺꅁꝃ꧳1%ꅃ 59
ꫭ3-7?AT&Tꕼꑪ껖ꓟ띾뎡 띾뎡 Broadband Wireless Consumer Business 띾냈슲꒶ ꚬ쇊뻖ꚳ1,200Ꙩꩁ냈뚵ꗘ결ꛭꗾ과돌ꑪꪺꗸExcite@Homeꅂ롕ꯈꓡ꒧ꗾ과ꙶꮬ덾륱룜띾덱끔멛뫴룴TCIMediaOne닄ꑔꑪꛦ냊덱띾냈덳뵵꒽ꕱꅁ걏ꯡꛓꚨꗟ꒧ꚳ뵵끔꒽ꕱꅁꑷ결WorldNet뫴룴AT&T멘ꑕ샲륱뗸ꅂ뭹궵ꅂAT&Tꕈ땯ꛦ벷놵볆뻚ꩁ냈ꝑꑏ돌낪ꪺ뎡낪덴뱥쁗뫴룴ꩁ끬시ꪺꓨꚡ(쏾꒤뗘륱ꭈꅁꩁ냈맯뙈냈떥띾냈ꅁ꓀돎Ꙣꖫ돵ꑗꗦ꒧HiNet)ꅁꗘ결600롕ꪺꗸꯡ녎ꚨ결ꗾ과돌꧶ꅁꖼ꣓ꚨꭥ결뻖ꚳ띾ꮬꗎꓡꅁ빐ꑪꪺꚳ뵵륱뗸띾볧ꑏ곛럭낪ꅃ 6,000롕깡깸냢뭹궵룪껆ꅃ ꗎꓡ꒧ꗾ과닄뛇뿩띾냈ꅃ꓀ꑀꑪ덾륱룜돎ꯡꕝ걁뫴꒽ꕱꅃ 룴ꅂ맪엧ꯇ떥뎡꒴ꩵꗎ AT&Tꙗ뫙ꅃ ꓀돎ꓨꚡ 땯ꛦ뒶덱ꅃ 땯ꛦ뒶덱ꅃ 땯ꛦ끬시ꅃ 땯ꛦ뒶덱ꅃ 군땥ꗽ땯ꛦ끬시AT&T뒶덱 ꅁꭓIPOꑀ꙾ꗽꛦꗦ뒫결꒺꓀돎ꚨ뽗ꗟ꒽AT&T ꕱꅁ냲꧳뷒땼Wireless끬시ꛒ뙱ꅁ룓뎡Ꙣꅁꭓꑀ꙾꒺ꩫꯟꑗ꒴쓝꓀돎ꚨ뽗ꗟꑬAT&T멘ꑕꅃ ꒽ꕱꅃ 샧ꚬꓱ궫 % % % % ꚨ뉶 % % % +% 룪껆꣓랽ꅇꖻ곣ꡳ뻣뉺 닄ꑔꚸ꓀돎겡냊ꕩ뮡걏AT&Tꕶꑗ곛럭궫굮ꪺꢽ땻롏ꅁAT&T녎뵔ꥷꙁꗑꑪꮬꗸ띾뚰많신ꮬ결뽗ꗟꪺꑰꮬ닕슴ꅁ떹꒩ꙕꑬ꒽ꕱꕒ꓀ꪺꛛꗑ뱵꧊ꅁꗾ앶굴덤꣤꧒꽓ꥷꪺ늣ꭾ믢냬ꅁ덝ꥷꙕꛛꪺ곕빬ꗘ볐ꅁ쑷뛒꧒믝ꪺ룪ꅁ꙰ꚹ꿠결ꩆ돐덹ꟳ낪ꪺ믹귈ꅃAT&T듁뇦꓀돎ꯡꅁ꿠녎ꙕ뎡ꪺ볧Ꙣꝑ꽱쓀꧱ꕘ꣓ꅁ꣏꣤ꕛ셠ꪺꖫ귈ꅁ꿠뙗뙖귬ꗽꖫ귈ꅃ (ꑀ) AT&T닄ꑔꚸ꓀돎ꪺ냊뻷ꅇ 60
1. 뉻꒵륱ꭈ늣띾ꪺ쇍뛕ꅁ꒣ꙁ걏싇ꗑ꣖쇊ꪺ냊Ꝁ꣓돐덹ꕘ륱ꭈꖨꑈꅁ뒣꣑ꅵ돦꾸쇊ꢬꅶ륱ꭈꩁ냈ꪺ껉ꕎꅁꛓ걏낾ꙮ녎롧샧땊쉉꧱Ꙣ돦ꑀ띾냈ꪺꅵ꿂뫩롧샧ꅶꅃꙝꚹꅁ릳AT&Tꕈꦹꪺꮫꪽ뻣Ꙙ볒ꚡꑷ궱셻녙볬ꗋ룑ꪺꙡꡂꅁ꣺ꛓꕎ꒧ꪺ걏녍띾꓆륱ꭈ꒽ꕱꙢꛛꑶ보노ꪺ믢냬뙩ꛦꓴꖭꚡ쑶ꪧ볒ꚡꅃ꣒꙰ꓩꖻNTT ꧳1992꙾녎ꛦ냊덱끔뎡DoCoMoꅂ1999꙾녎냏냬꧊륱룜꒽ꕱꇐNTT EastꅂNTT West덾냪믚륱룜꒽ꕱꇐNTT Communications꓀돎ꚨ뽗ꗟ꒽ꕱꅆ꙰Nextelꅁ녍샧ꛦ냊덱끔띾냈ꅆ꙰Level 3ꅁ뱥쁗덝돆땯냓ꅁ꣤샲ꝑꓴ럇곒낪꧳AT&T덯볋ꪺꑪꮬ꒽ꕱꅃꙝꚹꅁ륱ꭈ꒽ꕱ신ꮬ결꿂뫩롧샧ꛓ라샲녯룪ꑈ룻낪ꪺ뗻믹ꅁ굙ꖼ꣓릳MCI WorldCom(ꗾ과닄ꑇꑪ덾륱ꭈ꒽ꕱ)뙩ꛦꗸ띾꓀돎삳꒣라ꕏꑈ띐꣬띎ꕾꅃ 2. 덾륱룜띾뎡(Consumer Long-Distance Services)ꗑ꧳쑶ꪧ뱀꽐ꕈ띳덎ꉷ뫴룴때뵵덱끔ꉷꪺꕘ뉻꧒뻉교ꪺ륱ꭈꩁ냈믹껦ꑕ럆ꅁ꣏녯껸뙏덱끔ꓨꚡ뿯뻜뱗ꕛꅁ샲ꝑꑪ둔듮ꓖꅃ뺨뫞꣤ꕌ껖ꓟ띾뎡ꇐꚳ뵵뱥쁗때뵵덱끔뎡ꇐ꣣ꚳ곛럭ꑪꪺꚨ볧ꑏꅁꕈꗸ띾ꩁ냈(Business Services)뎡ꪺ낪샲ꝑꑏꅁꗑ꧳ꑗ굺ꪺ귬ꙝꅁ꣏녯룓뎡ꧬ닖뻣귓AT&T뚰많ꪺꚨ뉶ꅁAT&T믹ꖼ꿠꽵ꖿ걍꒽ꕱ맪뷨믹귈ꅁꙝꚹꅁ꓀돎껸뙏ꩁ냈뎡ꚳꝕ꧳뒣ꩀ뻣엩꒽ꕱꚨ뉶ꅃ 3. ꗸ띾ꩁ냈뎡Ᶎ뇦싇꓀돎ꚨ뽗ꗟꪺ샧륂돦ꛬꅁꛓ꿠끬ꡄ낪ꚨꪺ룪껆뫴룴뛇뿩ꩁ냈ꕈ뒣꣑ꗸ띾ꮬꯈꓡꅁꣃ닦싷꣤ꕌ띾뎡꧒늣ꗍꪺ냝썄ꅁ꙰샲ꝑꑕ궰ꅂ룪ꖻꓤꕘ떥ꅃ 4. ꚳ뵵뱥쁗때뵵덱끔뎡꧒ꯘ멣꒧냲슦ꯘ덝꧒믝ꪺ룪ꑪ뎡꓀걏녱껸뙏ꩁ냈뎡ꪺ뉻걹뙱ꛓ꣓ꅁAT&Tꛒ뙱덯꣢뎡ꪺꖼ꣓ 61
ꚨ볧ꑏ샲ꝑ놡ꩰꅁꑷ륆꣬ꛛ떹ꛛꢬꣃ녎곕빬낵ꙁ룪ꝑꗎꅁ뭻결꒣ꙁ믝굮껸뙏뎡룪ꪺ톺ꩠꅁꑷ륆꣬냵ꛦ꓀돎ꪺ뚥걱ꅃ 5. ꓀돎녎꣏ꙕ띾뎡맯Ꟗ덴륱ꭈ늣띾쑶ꪧ샴맒ꙝ삳떦늤맪뉻꣤볧꿠ꅁ엽ꙕ뎡꿠껚뻚ꛛꢭ끝냈놡ꩰ룪군땥뻉Ꙗꅁ뷕뻣끝냈떲멣ꪺ뱵꧊ꅃ 6. AT&TꟆ뇦덺륌꓀돎꣓꺾뇏럭껉ꑀ쏝꒣꺶ꪺ믹(2000꙾ꪺ믹낪쉉곹$61ꑕ뙞ꛜ$23ꖪꕫ)ꅁꙝ결띾뎡ꧺ뵔릺꓀ꅁꙕꛛ뽗ꗟ륂Ꝁꅁꙕꛛ깩떦늤ꥍꖫ돵ꅁ륆꣬ꕛ덴ꚨꪺꗘ볐ꅁ꙰ꚹꕩꕈꝬꓞꟳ결뱳ꑪꪺ룪ꑈꑊꖫ21ꅃ녱ꕴꑀꢤꯗ꣓곝ꅁAT&T덯ꚸ꓀깡떥꧳걏ꯅꝩ꒧ꭥꪺ롧샧뻔늤ꇐꅵ뻣Ꙙ꧊ꩁ냈ꅶ(bundling service)ꅁ뒣꣑ꗾ과ꪺꗸ띾ꥍ깡깸ꞹ뻣ꪺꑀꚸ쇊ꢬꩁ냈ꅁꕝ걁덾륱ꭈꅂꖫ꒺륱룜ꅂꛦ냊륱룜ꅂꚳ뵵륱뗸ꅂ볆뻚덱끔ꩁ냈ꇐꯅꝩꖢ뇑ꅃꙝ결AT&T교ꑏ덹ꚨ뚰꧒ꚳ륱ꭈꩁ냈꧳ꑀꢭꪺ륱ꭈꑪ꺣쁳ꅁꗸ맏ꑀ셼앮걁꧒ꚳ녱덱끔구ꗍꪺꖫ돵ꅁꣃ결ꚹꑊꑆ$1,000Ꙩ믵과꒸꧳꣖쇊꣢깡ꚳ뵵륱뗸꒽ꕱꅁ덯볋ꪺ쉘녩군땥꣏AT&T굉굴ꑆ곹$610믵과꒸ꪺ륤썂뛅냈ꅆꙁꕛꑗ륌ꕨ덳쓲둘꙾ꪺ껸뙏덾룜냈ꚬꑊꑪ둔ꑕ럆ꅁꕏ룪ꖢ뇦ꅃ결쇗ꝋꑕ럆ꪺ룜냈ꧬ닖ꭥ뒺곝ꙮꪺ때뵵덱ꭈ떥띾냈ꅁAT&TꭋꟆ뇦덺륌꓀돎꣓뒣꺶룪ꑈꪺꭈꓟꅁ곩걏룪ꑈ맯덯뚵궫뻣군땥삳Ꝏ뉈ꅁꙢ꓀돎ꯅꝇ럭ꓑAT&Tꪺ믹둎ꑪ뙞ꑆ꫱4 %ꅃ (ꑇ) AT&T닄ꑔꚸ꓀돎ꪺ쁵쉉ꅇ 1. AT&T꓀돎ꚨꕼ귓뽗ꗟꪺ꒽뙽ꑗꖫꗦ꧶꒽ꕱꅁꣃ꣏녯ꖼ꣓낪ꚨ볧ꑏꪺ때뵵덱끔ꚳ뵵뱥쁗뎡ꫭ뉻녱ꚹꟳꭇ쑒ꅃ 21 ꧒쎹과ꢹ쏒꣩(SSB)꓀꩒깶Jack Grubman뭻결ꅁAT&T굙꿠륆꣬륷듺ꪺ셚껄ꓴ럇ꅁ믹ꛛ땍라걍꒽ꕱ믹귈ꅁꛛ땍둎꒣라ꚳ꒰믲ꗸ띾궫뻣ꪺ냝썄꙳ꙢꅃCNBC News 62
2. ꚳ뎡ꗷ꓀꩒깶륷꛴꓀돎라꣏AT&Tꪺ믹Ꙟ둟꣬ꡃ$30ꛜ$40ꖪꕫꪺꓴ럇ꅁ뭻결뚰많ꪺꙨꢤ꓆ꛓ꣏꒽ꕱꪺ꽵귈꒣꧶엣뉻ꅁꝙ늣ꗍꅵꙨꢤ꓆ꚩꅶꅃ믹ꪺꙞ맯꧳뫞뉺ꕩ꿠꣣ꚳꟳꑀ뱨ꪺ띎롱ꅁ둎걏귻ꑵ늼뿯뻜앶녯ꕈ냵ꛦꅁ엽닼ꕝꟳ몡ꅃ 3. AT&T때뵵덱끔뎡ꚳ곛럭ꗽ뙩ꪺ덎ꓴ럇때뵡ꪺ볧ꑏ냓뻷ꅃ (ꑔ) AT&T닄ꑔꚸ꓀돎ꪺ꿊쉉ꅇ 1. AT&Tꗽꭥ꣖쇊ꚳ뵵뱥쁗꒽ꕱ꙰TCIꅂMediaOne걏냲꧳뒣꣑ꯈꓡꗾꓨꛬ륱ꭈꩁ냈ꪺꛒ뙱ꅁ꓀돎ꯡꗑ꧳꓀쓝꒣Ꙑꪺ꒽ꕱꅁ뺨뫞AT&Tꯅ뫙ꚹꚸꗸ띾궫뻣ꯡꅁꙕ꒽ꕱ꒴꒬곛ꓤ뒩뒣꣑륱ꭈ뻣Ꙙ떦늤ꅁꙢ맪믚냵ꛦꑗ뛕ꖲ룻ꝸ쏸녯Ꙩꅃꚹꕾꅁꫡꑆ꫱$1,000믵과꒸ꚬ쇊꣢깡ꚳ뵵륱뗸꒽ꕱꪺ뫮껄ꥼꖼ꣓녯늣ꗍꅁ둎녎꣤꓀돎ꕘꕨꅁꗧ꒣ꝑ뻣귓AT&T듁떦늤ꪺꛒ뙱ꅃ 2. AT&T뉻뚥걱녎뚰많ꗑ샧륂겡냊ꅂ뿄룪겡냊꧒늣ꗍꪺ룪Ꙩ볆룪꧳ꚳ뵵뱥쁗뎡ꪺ냲슦ꯘ덝ꅁ꓀돎ꯡ꣏녯AT&T꒣꧶녎굴뛅쉫쓝꧳꣤ꕌ띾뎡ꅁꕈ꣤ꕌ띾뎡샧륂꧒늣ꗍꪺ뉻걹뙱ꑝ꒣ꙁ룪꧳뱥쁗ꪺꯘ덝ꅁ꣏녯룓뎡Ꙣ꓀돎ꯡꖢꕨ뻣귓뚰많룪ꪺ톺ꩠꅁꖼ꣓뽗ꛛ쑷룪꿠ꑏ꒴ꚳꯝ냓멥ꅃ 3. AT&Tꣃꡓꚳ뒣ꕘꞹ뻣ꧺ뵔ꪺ꓀돎룔닓군땥ꅁ꣏꣤띎뇽꧔ꧯ믹ꪺ띎맏ꟳꧺ엣ꅃꙁꅁ굙때뵵덱끔ꚳ뵵뱥쁗뎡Ꙣ꓀돎ꯡ때ꩫꚨ결늣띾ꪺ믢뻉ꙡꛬꅁ녎ꟳ돠ꖢ꣤쁵뛕ꅃ 4. AT&T끝냈돸ꫭꑗ낪륆$610믵과꒸ꪺ굴뛅ꅁꙢ꓀돎ꯡ굮ꗑꢺ귓띾뎡꣓꧓뻡꣤썥ꑪꪺꝑ꺧ꓤꕉꅁ걏낪ꚨꪺ때뵵덱끔뎡ꚳ뵵뱥쁗뎡ꅁ쇙걏낪샲ꝑꪺꗸ띾ꩁ냈뎡ꅁ걏ꚳꑪ뙱뉻걹뙱ꪺ덾륱룜뎡ꅁꙝꚹ끝냈돸ꫭ볆꙲ꪺ꓀돎ꑝ녎뱶암ꙕ뎡 63
ꩆ끝둉믹귈ꅃ (ꕼ) AT&Tꪺ앶떲멣ꅇ AT&T결ꚳ뵵뱥쁗뎡껸뙏덾륱룜뎡땯ꛦ끬시ꛓ꒣꓀돎ꪺ귬ꙝꅁ걏냲꧳땼냈ꩫꯟꑗꪺꛒ뙱ꅆꕴꕾꅁ땯ꛦ끬시걏ꝋ땼ꪺꗦ꧶겡냊ꅁꑝꕩ쇗ꝋ쎱롰ꣳ쒳껑떥냵럓냝썄ꅃ 꿷녎AT&T닄ꑔꚸ꓀돎겡냊ꪺꗸ띾닕슴ꮬ멁ꕈ맏3-4ꫭꗜꅇ 맏3-4?2000꙾AT&T닄ꑔꚸ꓀돎ꯡ꒧ꗸ띾닕슴ꮬ멁 AT&T AT&T AT&T BusinessWirelessWirelessSpin-OffTrackerLibertyMediaAT&T Group BroadbandTrackerTrackerAT&T ConsumerTrackerAT&T BroadbandLibertyMediaGroup 룪껆꣓랽ꅇꖻ곣ꡳ뻣뉺 AT&T꓀돎궫뻣군땥결녎꧒ꚳAT&T뒶덱ꗾ볆ꗦ뒫결AT&T Wireless끬시ꅁAT&T꧒꯹ꚳ꒧85% AT&T Wireless끬시꓀끴떹AT&T 뒶덱ꩆꅁ땍ꯡ군땥꧳2001꙾꒤녎꧒ꚳ끬시신뒫ꚨAT&T Wireless뒶덱ꅁꚨ결ꞹꗾꙡ꒽뙽ꑗꖫꪺ뽗ꗟ꒽ꕱꅃAT&T녎결꣤ 64 OffSpin-IPOSpin-Off
Consumer뎡땯ꛦ끬시ꅁꣃ꧳2001꙾닄ꑔꥵ100%꓀끴떹AT&TꪺꩆꅃꕴꕾꅁAT&T Broadband뎡ꑝ녎ꕈ끬시ꪺꚡ덺륌ꫬꚸ꒽뙽땯ꛦꪺꓨꚡꑗꖫꅁꣃ꧳ꫬꚸ꒽뙽땯ꛦꯡꪺ12귓ꓫ꒺녎끬시신뒫ꚨBroadband뒶덱ꅁꚨ결뽗ꗟꪺ꒽뙽ꑗꖫ꒽ꕱꅃ 65
닄ꑔ론? AT&T늧녠돸륓곛쏶맪쏒곣ꡳ?†덜Ꙩ뉺뷗ꑗ맪쏒ꑗꪺ곣ꡳ엣ꗜꗸ띾꓀돎겡냊맯꒽ꕱ믹귈ꩆ끝둉ꚳ곛럭땻ꯗꪺ뱶암ꅃHite뭐Owers(1983)ꅁMiles뭐Rosenfeld(1983)ꅁꕈSchipper뭐Smith(1983)떥뻇ꓞ쏒ꕘꙢꗸ띾꓀돎ꯅꝩꓩ뭐ꭥ1ꓩꪺ2ꓩ?-1,0]듁뚡ꚳ녎꫱?2-3%ꪺ믹뙗썂돸륓ꅆ덯뫘꛱쁈뗛꓀돎겡냊꧒뻉교ꪺꩆ끝둉뱗ꕛꪺꕩ꿠룑쓀ꕝ걁ꅇ(1)ꗸ띾ꙝ꓀돎ꛓ꒣ꙁ꣼궭꧳ꩫ덗땼냈ꑗꪺ뫞꣮(Schipper뭐Smith)ꅆ(2)ꗀꅂꑬ꒽ꕱ꒧뚡ꙝ꓀돎ꛓ뱗ꕛ뫞뉺ꑗꪺ뱵꧊(Hite뭐Owers)ꅆ(3)궫닕슲꓆뷆싸ꪺ뫞뉺닕슴떲멣뱨꿅(Schipper뭐Smith)ꅆ(4)꓀돎ꕘ꒧ꭥ뿹뭾ꙡ꣖쇊꒣쇈뿺ꪺ꒽ꕱ꧒낵ꕘ떦늤ꑗꪺ귗ꖿ(KaplanꅁWeisbachꅁ뭐Allen떥ꑈ)ꅃꖻ론샀ꕈAT&T꧳2000꙾10ꓫ25ꓩ닄ꑔꚸꗸ띾꓀돎ꯅꝩꓩ결ꗳ곣ꡳꓩ22ꅁ꓀ꝏ놴끑AT&TꙢ꓀돎ꯅꝩꓩ듁뚡ꅂ꣖쇊TCI뭐MediaOne꣢깡ꚳ뵵뱥쁗꒽ꕱꯡꙁ뙩ꛦ꓀돎ꕈ멘ꑕ띾뎡AT&T Wireless Group뭐Liberty Media Group끬시믹ꫭ뉻떥ꗳꅁ걏ꝟ꙳Ꙣ엣뗛ꪺ뙗썂돸륓ꅃ† ꑀꅂ?꓀돎ꯅꝩꓩꪺ뙗썂돸륓(Spin-off Announce Excess Returns) ꗑꑗ꧒굺ꅁꑀ꿫ꪺꗸ띾꓀돎ꯅꝩꓩꙢ2ꓩ꒺ꚳ녎꫱?2-3%ꪺ믹뙗썂돸륓ꅃ꙰ꫭ3-8꧒ꗜꅁꝑꗎFama (1976)ꪺꖫ돵볒ꚡꅁꙢ꓀돎ꯅꝩꓩꭥꯡ꒧ꙕ뫘꒣Ꙑꪺ껉뚡냏뚡꒺ꅁꕈ군뫢꓀돎ꯅꝩꓩꪺ뙗썂돸륓ꅃ 22 AT&T꧳2000-10-25ꖿꚡꯅꖬ꒽ꕱꑀ꓀결ꕼꪺ군땥,Ꙣ2000-10-04껉꣤CEO둎뒣쒳녎덾뎡꓀돎ꪺ껸꺧ꅃꙝꚹꅁ덯료꒴꣏ꗎꯅꖬꓩ결ꗳ곣ꡳꓩꅃꛜ꧳놵ꑕ꣓ꪺ맪쏒곣ꡳ뎡ꗷꗧꙐꅃ 66
ꫭ3-8 ꓀돎ꯅꝩ듁뚡꒧뙗썂돸륓 듁뚡?닖뽮뙗썂돸륓(%)?T닎군뙱?(p귈)?AD-50 to AD-6 %? AD-5 to AD-1 %? AD-1 to AD %? AD %? AD to AD+1 %? AD+1 to AD+5 %? AD-5 to AD+5 %? ?ꫭꗜ꓀돎ꯅꝩꓩꅁ10-25-2000ꅁꝙꗳ곣ꡳꓩꅁ닄ꑀꚸꙢWall Street Journal돸뻉AT&Tꯅꝇ꒽ꕱꑀ꓀결ꕼꪺ껸꺧ꅃ 2.ꖫ돵볒ꚡꪺ냑볆꛴군듁뚡(estimation period)결150ꓑꅁ결ꯅꝩꓩꭥ250ꓑ꣬ꭥ101ꓑ[-250,-101]ꅃ 3.ꕈS&P 500믹볆돸륓뉶결ꖫ돵돸륓뉶ꅁꣃꕈ뷕뻣ꯡꚬ뵌믹꣓군뫢볋ꖻ돸륓뉶ꅃ 4.엣뗛ꓴ럇결5%ꅃ Ꙣ꓀돎ꯅꝩꓩꭥ50ꓩꛜꭥ6ꓩ듁뚡[-50,-6]꒧닖뽮뙗썂돸륓결%(p귈=)ꅁꭥ5ꓩꛜꭥ1ꓩ듁뚡[-5,-1]꒧닖뽮뙗썂돸륓결%(p귈=)ꅁꭥ1ꓩꛜ꓀돎ꯅꝩꓩ듁뚡[-1,0]꒧닖뽮뙗썂돸륓결%(p귈=)ꅁ꓀돎ꯅꝩꓩ럭ꓩ[0]꒧닖뽮뙗썂돸륓결%(p귈=)ꅁ꓀돎ꯅꝩꓩꛜꯡ1ꓩ듁뚡[0,+1]꒧닖뽮뙗썂돸륓결%(p귈=)ꅁꯡ1ꓩꛜꯡ5ꓩ듁뚡[+1,+5]꒧닖뽮뙗썂돸륓결%(p귈=)ꅁꭥ5ꓩꛜꯡ5ꓩ듁뚡[-5,+5]꒧닖뽮뙗썂돸륓결%(p귈=)ꅃ 덯료꧒ꝥ뉻ꪺ샋ꥷ떲ꩇꅁ엣ꗜAT&T낣ꑆꙢ꓀돎ꯅꝩꓩꭥ5ꓩꛜꭥ1ꓩ[-5,-1]듁뚡꒺ꅁꚳꧺ엣ꪺꖿꪺ닖뽮뙗썂돸륓ꕾꅁ꣤ꕌꪺ듁뚡곒ꝥ뉻굴ꪺ닖뽮뙗썂돸륓ꅃꓗ꣤Ꙣꯅꝩꓩꭥ1ꓩ꣬ꯡ1ꓩꪺꑔ귓듁뚡( [-1,0]ꅂ[0]ꅂ[0,+1] )꒺ꅁ꒽ꕱ믹귈ꩆ끝둉듮ꓖ돌Ꙩꅁ엣ꗜ룪ꕇꣃ꒣곝ꙮAT&T덯ꚸꪺ꓀돎겡냊ꅁ뭻결ꚹ셼ꣃ때ꩫꙁ결꒽ꕱ돐덹 67
ꟳꙨꪺꗸ띾믹귈ꅃ꙰ꚹ곝꣓ꅁAT&Tꪺ뫞뉺뚷꺳ꕘꟳꚳ껄ꪺ떦늤꣓뒣꺶꒽ꕱꪺ쑶ꪧꑏꅃ녱ꕴꑀ귓뱨궱꣓곝ꅁ굙AT&Tꚹꚸꪺꗸ띾꓀돎겡냊꧒삳ꪺ믹꣣ꚳꖿꪺ뙗썂돸륓ꅁꢺ걏ꝟꕎꫭ룪ꑈ맯ꕈꭥ꒽ꕱ꧒낵ꪺꑀ덳ꛪꪺ꣖쇊떦늤셰럹겡냊ꅁꕈ륆꣬꧒뿗ꪺ륱ꭈ뭐둃엩뻣Ꙙ쇍뛕ꪺꗸ띾ꭥ뒺ꯅꝩꖢ뇑? ꑇꅂ?ꅵ귗ꖿ뿹뭾ꅶꪺ낲덝샋ꥷ(Correction-of-a-Mistake Hypothesis) †덯료녎둍AllenꅁLummerꅁMcConnellꅁ뭐Reed떥뻇꧒뒣ꕘ꒧ꕴꑀ뫘낲덝ꇐꅵ귗ꖿ뿹뭾ꅶꅇꗸ띾꓀돎꧒뻉교ꪺꩆ끝둉ꝑ녯걏꣓ꛛ꧳귗ꖿ꒧ꭥ꧒ꗇꪺ뿹뭾ꇐꙘ꣖꒣쇈뿺ꪺ꒽ꕱꪺꛦ냊23ꅁꕈ꓀돎ꯅꝩ듁뚡꧒왛맮꣬ꪺꖿꪺ믹뙗썂돸륓ꕎꫭ꒧ꭥ뿹뭾ꪺꚬ쇊겡냊뻉교ꩆ끝둉듮ꓖ꒧ꙁ돐덹24ꅃꙝꚹꅁꕈꫭ3-9ꫭ3-10꣓놴끑AT&T꧳1998ꅂ1999꙾꓀ꝏꚬ쇊TCIꅂMediaOne 껉꣖쇊ꯅꝩ껉꒧믹뙗썂돸륓뭐ꫭ3-8 AT&T꧳2000꙾ꑀ꓀결ꕼ껉꓀돎ꯅꝩ껉꒧믹뙗썂돸륓낵ꑀꓱ룻ꅁꕈ샋엧AT&T꧳닄ꑔꚸꪺ꓀돎ꯅꝩ듁뚡ꪺ뙗썂돸륓ꅁ걏ꝟ뭐꣖쇊ꯅꝩ껉꒧뙗썂돸륓ꝥ굴곛쏶ꅁꕈ뇀뙱ꚹꚸ꓀돎겡냊ꪺ떦늤걏ꝟꖿ뵔ꅃꛜ꧳1996꙾AT&Tꑀ꓀결ꑔꪺ꓀돎겡냊ꪺ샋엧ꅁꭨꕩꓞꗎꕶ뫵뭐ꫴ띏왛꧳ꅵꗑ꓀돎룪늣ꛓ궫뻣ꗸ띾ꇐ과냪륱룜륱돸꒽ꕱ귓껗ꅶꪺ떲뷗ꅇAT&T뭐꣤꧒꓀돎ꕘꕨꪺLucent뭐NCRꑇ꒽ꕱꅁꗑAT&TꙢꯅꖬ꓀돎ꯡ꧒뇄꣺ꪺꗸ띾궫뻣ꛦ냊ꅁꛓ뻉교쏒꣩ꪺꖿꪺ믹뙗썂돸륓ꅁꣃ땯뉻꓀돎ꯅꝩ듁뚡ꪺ뙗썂돸륓ꅁꪺ뵔뭐꣖쇊ꯅꝩ껉꒧뙗썂돸륓ꝥ굴곛쏶ꅃ 23 ꓀돎겡냊라늣ꗍꖿꙖꪺ뙗썂돸륓ꕩ꿠뎣녱ꅵꙘ꣖ꛓꯡ꓀돎ꅶ덯귓ꑬ뚰Ꙙ꧒늣ꗍꪺꖿꙖ믹삳ꛓ꣓ꅃꕴꑀ뎡ꗷꪺꛛ땯꧊꓀돎ꕩ꿠꒣라돐덹믹귈ꅁꝙ륳끝둉껄ꩇꅃ꙰걏ꪺ룜ꅁꅵꙘ꣖ꛓꯡ꓀돎ꅶ덯귓ꑬ뚰ꙘꙢ꓀돎ꯅꝩ듁뚡꧒늣ꗍꪺ늧녠돸륓ꅁ라ꑪ꧳ꑀ꿫꓀돎껗ꗳ쁈뻷볋ꖻꪺ늧녠돸륓ꅃꕩ냑ꛒJeffery W. Allen, Scott L. Lummer, John J. McConnell, and Debra K. Reed (1995),”Can Takeover Losses Explain Spin-Off Gains?” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 30, pp. 465-485. 24 ꅵ귗ꖿ뿹뭾ꅶꪺ낲덝룑쓀ꗸ띾꓀돎꧒꛱쁈ꪺꖿꙖ뙗썂돸륓ꅁꣃ꒣ꫭꗜ꧒ꚳꪺ꓀돎뎣걏결ꑆꖿ뿹뭾ꪺꙘ꣖ꛦ냊ꅆꛓ걏뮡Ꙣ꓀돎ꪺ볋ꖻ꒤ꅁ늣ꗍꖿꪺ믹삳ꕝꝴꑀ뫘ꚨꗷꅁ둎걏꣖쇊꧒덹ꚨꪺ끝둉껸뒲꒧ꙁ돐덹ꅁꙝꚹꅁ뒣꣑ꑀ귓맯ꖿꙖ믹삳ꪺꙖꑗ낾뭾ꅃ 68
†ꫭ3-9 AT&T꣖쇊TCIꯅꝩ듁뚡꒧뙗썂돸륓 듁뚡?닖뽮뙗썂돸륓(%)?T닎군뙱?(p귈)?AD-50 to AD-6 %? AD-5 to AD-1 %? AD-1 to AD %? AD %? AD to AD+1 %? AD+1 to AD+5 %? AD-5 to AD+5 %? ?ꫭꗜ꣖쇊ꯅꝩꓩꅁ06-24-1998ꅁꝙꗳ곣ꡳꓩꅁ닄ꑀꚸꙢWall Street Journal돸뻉AT&Tꚬ쇊TCIꪺ껸꺧ꅃ 2.ꖫ돵볒ꚡꪺ냑볆꛴군듁뚡(estimation period)결150ꓑꅁ결ꯅꝩꓩꭥ250ꓑ꣬ꭥ101ꓑ[-250,-101]ꅃ 3.ꕈS&P 500믹볆돸륓뉶결ꖫ돵돸륓뉶ꅁꣃꕈ뷕뻣ꯡꚬ뵌믹꣓군뫢볋ꖻ돸륓뉶ꅃ 4.엣뗛ꓴ럇결5%ꅃ †ꫭ3-10 AT&T꣖쇊MediaOneꯅꝩ듁뚡꒧뙗썂돸륓 듁뚡?닖뽮뙗썂돸륓(%)?T닎군뙱?(p귈)?AD-50 to AD-6 %? AD-5 to AD-1 %? AD-1 to AD %? AD %? AD to AD+1 %? AD+1 to AD+5 %? AD-5 to AD+5 %? ?ꫭꗜ꣖쇊ꯅꝩꓩꅁ04-22-1999ꅁꝙꗳ곣ꡳꓩꅁ닄ꑀꚸꙢWall Street Journal돸뻉AT&Tꯅꖬꕈ$620믵과꒸ꚬ쇊MediaOne뚰많ꅃ 2.ꖫ돵볒ꚡꪺ냑볆꛴군듁뚡(estimation period)결150ꓑꅁ결ꯅꝩꓩꭥ250ꓑ꣬ꭥ101ꓑ[-250,-101]ꅃ 3.ꕈS&P 500믹볆돸륓뉶결ꖫ돵돸륓뉶ꅁꣃꕈ뷕뻣ꯡꚬ뵌믹꣓군뫢볋ꖻ돸륓뉶ꅃ 4.엣뗛ꓴ럇결5%ꅃ 녱ꕈꑗ꣢귓꣖쇊ꯅꝩꗳ꣓곝ꅁAT&TꙢꙘ꣖TCI뭐MediaOne껉Ꙣ꣖쇊ꯅꝩꓩ럭ꓑ곒ꝥ뉻굴ꪺ닖뽮뙗썂돸륓(%뭐%)ꅆꛓꙢ꣖쇊ꯅꝩꭥꑀꓩꛜ꣖쇊ꯅꝩꓩ[-1,0]꣖쇊ꯅꝩꓩꛜ꣖쇊ꯅꝩꯡꑀꓩ[0,+1] 69
ꑝ곒ꝥ뉻굴ꪺ닖뽮뙗썂돸륓ꅃꗑꚹꕩꪾꅁAT&Tꫡꑆ1,000Ꙩ믵과꒸Ꙣ꣖쇊덯꣢깡꒽ꕱꪺ떦늤ꑗꣃ꒣꣼꣬룪ꪺ뭻Ꙑꅁ뷨뫃Ꙙ꣖떦늤ꪺꕩꛦ꧊ꅁꣃꙖꑕ귗ꖿꕌ귌맯Ꙙ꣖ꯡ꒽ꕱꪺ셚껄륷듁ꅆꚹꕾꅁAT&TꙢꖿꚡꯅꝩꗽꯡ꣖쇊TCI 뭐MediaOne럭ꓩꪺ믹ꑝꑕ뙞ꅃꙢꙘ꣖ꯡꛜ꓀돎ꪺ듁뚡꒺ꅁAT&T셁룑꣬륌ꕨ륱ꭈ늣띾Ꙩꢤ꓆ꪺ뿹뭾ꡍ떦ꅁꣃ뙽ꥬ뙩ꛦꑪ덗볒ꪺꗸ띾궫뻣군땥ꅃ 땍ꛓꅁꑗ궱ꪺ샋ꥷ떲ꩇꣃ때ꩫꚳ껄ꙡ룑쓀ꅵ귗ꖿ뿹뭾ꅶꪺ낲덝볒ꮬꅃꕩꕈ뵔ꥷꪺꑀ쉉걏ꅁꕄ꣖꒽ꕱ(AT&T)ꪺꖭꞡ뙗썂돸륓결굴ꅁꕂ엣뗛늧꧳0ꅃ걇AT&Tꩆ믹귈ꪺ띬ꖢꑪ꧳덑꣖ꩆ믹귈ꪺ뱗ꕛ25ꅁꕈ교꧳Ꙙ꣖ꯡ꒽ꕱꪺ믹귈ꓖ꧳Ꙙ꣖ꯅꝩꭥꑔ깡꒽ꕱ믹귈ꪺꕛ셠ꅆꑝ둎걏뮡ꅁꙢꙘ꣖듁뚡ꅁ덯꒽ꕱꪺꩆ끝둉뎣ꚳ믹귈꒧뉢듮ꓖꅃꕴꕾꚳꑀ뫘룑쓀걏ꅁAT&T꣖쇊덯꣢깡ꚳ뵵륱뗸꒽ꕱꪺ떦늤걏결ꑆ뻣Ꙙ륱ꭈ뭐둃엩ꩁ냈띾ꅁ꒣꣬꣢꙾ꪺ껉뚡ꭋ쏒ꧺ덯뚵떦늤ꪺꖢ뇑ꅁꝙ꣏ꗎAT&T륱ꭈꩁ냈ꪺ깡깸꒣꣬20%ꪺꯈꓡꙐ껉꣏ꗎAT&Tꚳ뵵뱥쁗ꪺꩁ냈ꅁ교꣏뎡ꗷ룪꒣뭻결ꯡ꣓꓀돎겡냊ꪺ떦늤결ꑀ뫘궫꺶꒽ꕱ믹귈ꪺ뇏ꥒ꒦ꅁAT&T꒴땍꺳꒣ꕘꚳ껄ꪺꙝ삳떦늤꣓궱맯륱ꭈ샴맒ꪺ뽅꽐쑶ꪧꅃ ꑔꅂ?끬시꧳꓀돎ꯅꝩ듁뚡ꪺ믹삳 †Julia D’Souza뭐John Jacob(2000)ꕘꙢ끬시땯ꛦ꒧ꯅꝩꓩꪺꑔꓑ왛맮듁뚡[-1,+1]꒺ꚳꝥ뉻엣뗛ꪺ믹늧녠돸륓+%ꅁꖫ돵걍ꕘ끬시땯ꛦꪺꯅꝩ뵔꿠꣏꒽ꕱ믹귈뱗ꕛꅃ놵ꑕ꣓꓀꩒AT&T꧳닄ꑔꚸ꓀돎ꯅꝩ듁뚡ꅁ멘ꑕ꒧꣢귓띾뎡꒧끬시ꇐAT&T Wireless Group(AWE)뭐New Liberty Media Group()믹꒧뙗썂돸륓ꅁ꣓ 25 낣ꑆ꣖쇊꧒ꓤꕉꪺ랸륓ꕾꅁAT&T뭐Comcast륆ꚨꣳ쒳ꅁꗑAT&Tꓤꕉ$15믵과꒸떹Comcastꅁꕈ닗ꓮComcast ꗽꭥ룕맏ꕘ믹ꚬ쇊MediaOneꪺꛦ냊ꅃ뷐냑빜AT&T News Releaseꅃ 70
ꓱ룻ꗸ띾궫뻣ꪺ꣢뫘떦늤ꇐꅵ땯ꛦ끬시ꅶ뭐ꅵꗸ띾꓀돎ꅶꇐ맯ꗸ띾믹귈ꩆ끝둉ꪺ뱶암ꅃ †ꫭ3-11 AT&T꓀돎ꯅꝩ듁뚡AWE꒧뙗썂돸륓 듁뚡?닖뽮뙗썂돸륓(%)?T닎군뙱?(p귈)?AD-5 to AD-1 %? AD-1 to AD %? AD %? AD to AD+1 %? AD+1 to AD+5 %? AD-5 to AD+5 %? ?ꫭꗜ꓀돎ꯅꝩꓩꅁ10-25-2000ꅁꝙꗳ곣ꡳꓩꅁ닄ꑀꚸꙢWall Street Journal돸뻉AT&Tꯅꝇ꒽ꕱꑀ꓀결ꕼꪺ껸꺧ꅃ 2.ꖫ돵볒ꚡꪺ냑볆꛴군듁뚡(estimation period)결120ꓑꅁ결ꯅꝩꓩꭥ125ꓑ꣬ꭥ6ꓑ[-125,-6]ꅃ 3.ꕈS&P 500믹볆돸륓뉶결ꖫ돵돸륓뉶ꅁꣃꕈ뷕뻣ꯡꚬ뵌믹꣓군뫢볋ꖻ돸륓뉶ꅃ 4.엣뗛ꓴ럇결5%ꅃ &T Wireless Group (AWE)꧳04-27-2000꧳NYSEꑗꖫ(IPO)ꅃ †ꫭ3-12 AT&T꓀돎ꯅꝩ듁뚡꒧뙗썂돸륓 듁뚡?닖뽮뙗썂돸륓(%)?T닎군뙱?(p귈)?AD-5 to AD-1 %? AD-1 to AD %? AD %? AD to AD+1 %? AD+1 to AD+5 %? AD-5 to AD+5 %? ?ꫭꗜ꓀돎ꯅꝩꓩꅁ10-25-2000ꅁꝙꗳ곣ꡳꓩꅁ닄ꑀꚸꙢWall Street Journal돸뻉AT&Tꯅꝇ꒽ꕱꑀ꓀결ꕼꪺ껸꺧ꅃ 2.ꖫ돵볒ꚡꪺ냑볆꛴군듁뚡(estimation period)결150ꓑꅁ결ꯅꝩꓩꭥ250ꓑ꣬ꭥ101ꓑ[-250,-101]ꅃ 3.ꕈS&P 500믹볆돸륓뉶결ꖫ돵돸륓뉶ꅁꣃꕈ뷕뻣ꯡꚬ뵌믹꣓군뫢볋ꖻ돸륓뉶ꅃ 4.엣뗛ꓴ럇결5%ꅃ AWE뭐Ꙣ꓀돎ꯅꝩꓩ럭ꓑ곒ꝥ뉻ꖿꪺ닖뽮뙗썂돸륓(%뭐%)ꅆ낣ꑆꙢ꣖쇊ꯅꝩꓩꛜ꣖쇊ꯅꝩꯡꑀꓩ[0,+1]ꝥ뉻굴ꪺ닖뽮뙗썂돸륓ꕾꅁ꣤빬ꪺ껉뚡냏뚡곒ꝥ뉻ꖿꪺ닖뽮뙗썂돸 71
륓ꅃ뻣엩ꛓꢥꅁ꓀돎ꯅꝩ듁뚡끬시라ꚳꑗ굺ꪺ샋ꥷ떲ꩇꅁꕩ꿠ꫭꗜ룪ꑈ맯AT&T뚰많ꪺ믹귈뱗ꕛ꯹써뫃ꪺ멁ꯗꅁ신ꛓ쇩놡꧳롧샧돦꿂띾냈ꪺAT&T Wireless Group때뵵덱끔뎡ꕈNew Liberty Media Groupꚳ뵵뱥쁗뎡ꅁ뻉교ꖿꪺ믹뙗썂돸륓ꅃꗑꚹꕩꢣꅁAT&T돌꣎ꪺꗸ띾궫뻣떦늤삳걏멘ꑕ뎡끬시ꪺ땯ꛦꅁꛓꭄꑀꣽꙡ꓀돎ꣃ뽗ꗟꕘꕨꅃ 72
닄ꕼ뎹†?떲?뷗?뭐?ꯘ?쒳?ꖻꓥ맯꧳과냪륱ꭈ늣띾룻녠꣏ꗎꪺꗸ띾궫뻣ꪺ꣢귓ꕄ굮ꪺꑵ꣣ꇐ꓀돎뭐끬시ꇐ낵ꑀ룔닓ꙡ뷗굺ꅃꣃꕈ꧵ꓩ과냪륱ꭈ띾ꖨꑈAT&Tꪺ귓껗맪쏒곣ꡳ꣓놴끑륱ꭈ늣띾Ꙣ궱맯덱끔덎꯹쓲뙩ꡂꪺ쑶ꪧ샴맒ꑕꅁ꒽ꕱꚨꪺꗸ띾궫뻣떦늤ꅁꣃ뺬뇦ꕈꚹ꣓돐덹ꟳꙨꪺ꒽ꕱ믹귈뭐뱗ꕛꩆꪺ끝둉ꅃꙝꚹꅁ싇ꗑꖻꓥꪺ놴끑ꅁꝞꑈꕩꝀꕘꑕꙃ둘쉉떲뷗ꅇ ꑀꅂ녱ꑗ굺맪쏒곣ꡳꕩ곝ꕘꅁAT&TꙢ냵ꛦꗸ띾닄ꑔꚸ꓀돎ꗳ뭐꒽ꕱ멘ꑕ꣢끬시ꪺ셚껄ꫭ뉻꧒ꝥ뉻ꪺ떲ꩇꕩ곝ꕘꅁ땯ꛦ끬시ꪺ떦늤뵔맪ꓱꗸ띾꓀돎꣓녯ꙮꅁ꿠결ꩆ늣ꗍ룻Ꙩꪺ믹돸륓ꅃꕄ굮걏끬시ꪺꑬ꒽ꕱ꒴Ꙣꗀ꒽ꕱꪺ놱꣮앶ꑕꅁ룪ꑈ꒣뭻결덯ꚸꪺ꓀돎떦늤라ꓱꗽꭥꪺ꓀돎겡냊꣓녯낪ꧺꅁꛓ끬시ꪺ륂ꗎꕩ떲Ꙙ꓀돎뭐뻣Ꙙꪺ껄꽱ꅁꙝꚹ라Ꝭꓞꑪ뎡꓀룪ꑈꪺꭃ럽ꅃ덜걏ꙝ결끬시ꪺ꽓꧊ꅁ꣏녯AT&TꙢ닄ꑔꚸ꓀돎겡냊냵ꛦ듁뚡ꅁ멘ꑕ꒧wirelessꅂconsumerꅂbroadband떥뎡Ꙣꞹꗾ꓀돎ꭥ뎣ꗽ덺륌끬시ꪺ땯ꛦꕈ결륌듧껉듁ꪺ끝냈ꑵ꣣ꅃ ꑇꅂꕈꖻꓥ꧒놴끑AT&Tꑔꚸꕄ굮ꪺ꓀돎ꗳ꣓곝ꅁ꣤꧒늣ꗍꪺ떲ꩇ곒꒣뫉곛Ꙑꅁꑪ교닅Ꙙ꓀돎냵ꛦꪺ뮤ꙝ뭐냊뻷ꅃꙝꚹꅁ뺨뫞ꡃꑀ귓꒽ꕱ덺륌꣖쇊ꅂ꓀돎ꅁ곆ꛜ끬시떥궫뻣떦늤꧒쉫꿇ꕘꪺꙕ뚵뷗쉉곒ꕩꚨꗟꅁꡃꑀꚸꗸ띾궫뻣ꪺ귓껗ꅁ굉ꯡ뎣ꚳ꣤꽓껭ꪺꚨꙝ꿀ꅁ꒣ꕩꑀꣽꙡ녎뉺뷗깍ꗎꙢ귓껗곣끑ꑗꅃ ꑔꅂꖻꓥ뫉ꕩ꿠ꙡ놴끑AT&TꙢꙕ뫘꒣Ꙑꪺꗸ띾궫뻣떦늤냵ꛦꑗ꧒쇴ꝴꪺꙕ뚵왛쉉ꅁꟆ뇦꿠맯ꗸ띾롧뉺ꑈ뭐뫞뉺뚥뱨(ꓗ꣤걏륱ꭈ띾)ꚳ굙ꑺꪺ뇒ꗜ냑ꛒ믹귈ꅁ꣏녯꒽ꕱꙢ냵ꛦ궫ꑪ떦늤껉ꅁ곒꿠싔띖ꕂ룔맪ꙡꛒ뱻ꯡꩇꅁꕈ낵ꕘ맯꒽ꕱ믹귈ꥍꩆ끝둉뱗ꕛꪺꡍ떦ꅃ 73
냑ꛒꓥ쑭 ꒤ꓥ뎡꓀?ㄮ?ꓽ껵꒹ꅁꅵꗸ띾쇊꣖맪ꗎꅶꅁ뮷걹ꕘꪩ꒽ꕱꅁꗁ냪80꙾ꅃ?㈮?ꚶ깡ꅁꅵꕸ왗쇊꣖걛멣꒧곣ꡳꇐꕈ셰륱꒭Ꙙꑀ껗결꣒ꅶꅁ꒤ꖡꑪ뻇끝냈뫞뉺곣ꡳ꧒뫓ꑨ뷗ꓥꅁꗁ냪89꙾6ꓫꅃ?㌮?ꗮꦾ뷥ꅁꅵꗸ띾쇊꣖뉺뷗뭐맪냈ꅶꅁ띳뎰ꕘꪩꫀꅁꗁ냪88꙾3ꓫꅃ?㐮?Ꟶ꩙꧉ꅂ볚뚧ꡱꥹ뗛ꅁꅵꑗ뗘몸뗳ꇐ과냪덱끔랧꧀룪돓롧ꅶꅁ냓뒼ꓥ꓆ꅁꗁ냪89꙾10ꓫꅃ?㔮?ꩌ겳칝ꅁꅵꗸ띾뗻믹룪믈ꛦ맪냈ꅶꅁ뒼돓ꕘꪩꫀꅁꗁ냪88꙾6ꓫꅃ?6. ?ꩌ뙩둉ꅁꅵ꒽ꕱ꣖쇊뇐뻔ꙵꭨꅶꅁ셰롧ꕘꪩꫀꅁꗁ냪88꙾5ꓫꅃ 7. 녩ꗉꓥ쒶ꅁꅵ떦늤꧊뭐끝냈꧊ꪺ쇊꣖ꅶꅁ뮷ꢣ싸뭸ꅁꗁ냪89꙾1ꓫꅃ 8. 램꒤돇ꅁꅵꯡ륱ꭈꛛꗑ꓆ꪺ과냪덱끔ꩁ냈ꖫ돵ꅶꅁ룪떦라ꅁꗁ냪87꙾8ꓫꅃ 9. 뢭맧ꅁꅵ꒽ꖭꗦ꧶ꩫ꒤ꚳ쏶띾떲Ꙙ꣖쇊덗ꥷꅶꅁ맪ꗎ땼냈ꓫꕚꅁꗁ냪88꙾10ꓫꅁ8-15ꅃ 10. 뢭ꗃ껵ꅁꅵAT&T쇊꣖IBM뫴룴뎡껗ꅶꅁ룪떦라ꅁꗁ냪87꙾12ꓫꅃ 11. ꅵ덱끔늣띾룪ꅶꅁ끝끔ꕘꪩꫀꅁꗁ냪89꙾3ꓫꅃ 12. 냓띾ꥐꕚꅁ꒵뙧ꕚꅁ볆ꛬ껉ꕎꅁ롧샙ꓩ돸ꅁꑵ냓껉돸ꅃ 13. Al Ries뗛ꅂ뱂쑒꽵쒶ꅁꅵ땊쉉ꩫꭨꇐꗸ띾롧샧ꪺ닗랥떦늤ꅶꅁ돁ꗐꕘꪩꫀꅁꗁ냪87꙾ꅃ 14. Charles W. L. Hill and Gareth R. Jones뗛ꅁ뛀샧ꟼ쒶ꅁꅵ떦늤뫞뉺ꅶꅁ뗘껵ꓥ꓆ꚳ궭꒽ꕱꅁꗁ냪88꙾2ꓫꅃ 15. Lorraine Spurge뗛ꅁ뭵굀ꙷ쒶ꅁꅵꕈꑰ돕ꑪMCIꇐ맯AT&Tꪺ덱끔ꑰꖨꑈꅶꅁ뒼깷ꗷꚳ궭꒽ꕱꅁꗁ냪88꙾8ꓫꅃ 16. Mitchell Lee MarksꅂPhilip H. Mirvis뗛ꅁꩌ쑒뱥쒶ꅁꅵꗸ띾ꑏ떲Ꙙꇐꗸ띾쇊꣖&셰럹뇐뻔ꓢꕕꅶꅁ꒤냪ꗍ늣ꑏ꒤ꓟꕘꪩꅁꗁ냪88꙾9ꓫꅃ 굞ꓥ뎡꓀?1. Alchian, A. A., 1986, “Vertical Integration and Regulation in the Telephone Industry”, Managerial and Decision Economics 16, 323-326. 2. Allen, J. W., Scott L. Lummer, John J. McConnell, and Debra K. Reed, 1995, “Can Takeover Losses Explain Spin-Off Gains?” Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 30, 465-485. 3. Anslinger, P., Dennis Carey, Kristin Fink and Chris Gagnon, 1997, “Equity carve-outs: A new spin on the corporate structure”, The McKinsey Quarterly, 165-172. 4. Anslinger, P. L., Steven J. Klepper, and Somu Subramaniam, 1999, “Breaking up is good to do”, The McKinsey Quarterly, 16-27. 74
5. Anslinger, P., Sheila Bonini and Michael Patsalos-Fox, 2000, “Doing the spin-out”, The McKinsey Quarterly, 98-105. 6. “AT&T’s Acquisition of NCR”, Harvard Business School, 1995. 7. AT&T Wireless Group Tracking Stocks, Prospectus, 2000. 8. Binder, J. J., 1998, “The Event Study Methodology Since 1969”, Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting 11, 111-137. 9. Bruner, R. F., 1999, “Case Studies in FINANCE, McCaw Cellular Communications: The AT&T/McCaw Merger Negotiation”, McGraw-Hill 3rd, 523-561. 10. Chen, A. and Larry Merville, 1986, “An Analysis of Divestiture effects Resulting from Deregulation”, Journal of Finance 41-5, 997-1010. 11. Copeland, T., Tim Koller and Jack Murrin, 2000, Valuation: Measuring and Managing the Value of Companies, 3th,ed., Wiley. 12. Copeland, T. E. and J. Fred Weston, 1992, Financial Theory and Corporate Policy, Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, 3rd. 13. Chiu, T. K. and Gang Shyy, “Corporate restructuring Through Spin-off: The Case of AT&T. 14. D’souza, J. and John Jacob, 2000, “Why firms issue targeted stock ”, Journal of Financial Economics 56, 459-483. 15. Gaughan, P. A., 1996, “Mergers, Acquisitions, and Corporate Restructurings”, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 16. Gillan, S. L., John W. Kensinger, John D. Martin, 2000, “Value creation and corporate diversification: the case of Sears, Roebuck & Co. ”Journal of Financial Economics 55, 103-137. 17. Kaiser, K. . and Aris Stouraitis, 1999, “Creating Value Through Divestiture of Assets: The Case of Thorn EMI”, Journal of Financial Economics. 18. Kudla, R. and Thomas Mclnish, 1983, “Valuation Consequences of Corporate Spin-Offs”, Review of Economics and Business Research, 71-77. 19. Lee, C. F., 1985, “Financial Analysis and Planning-Theory and Application”, Addison-Wesley Publishing Company. 20. Palepu, K. G., Paul M. Healy and Victor L. Bernard, 2000, “Business Analysis & Valuation: Using Financial Statements”, South-Western. 21. Sullivan, L. and Ellen Hertz, 1990, “The AT&T Antitrust Consent Decree: Should Congress Change the Rules”, High Technology Law Journal 52, 233-255. 22. Thomas, Lys, Linda Vincent, (1995) “An analysis of value destruction in AT&T’s acquisition of NCR”, Journal of Financial Economics 39, 353-378. 23. The Merger of AT&T and TCI proxy statement/prospectus and AT&T Wireless Group proxy statement/prospectus. 24. Taylor, W. E. and Lester D. Taylor, 1993, “Post-divestiture Long-Distance 75
Competition in the United States”, American Economic Review 83, 185-190. 25. Wasserstein, B., 2000, “Big Deal 2000 and Beyond”, Warner Books. 26. Weston, J. F., Juan A. Siu and Brian A. Johnson, 2000, “Takeovers, Restructuring, & Corporate governance”, 3rd, Prentice Hall. 27. Zsuzsanna, Fluck, Anthony W. Lynch, 1999, “Why Do Firms Merge and Then Divest? A Theory of Financial Synergy”, Journal of Business 72. 76
†††††뿽?ꑀꅂꗾ뉹륱ꭈ늣띾냵ꛦ꓀돎겡냊ꑀ쓽ꫭ?1992ꛜ2001꙾??Parent Company Date Description Alcatel 3/4/1997 Alstom: Ameritech Corp 4/17/1998 Complete Card Spinoff AMR 12/13/1999 Sabre Analogic 3/29/2000 Anatel Communications Corporation Applied Cellular(adsx) 2/4/1999 Inteletek AT&T 9/20/1995 Lucent: Communication Previously acquired equipment manufacturer units. 10/1/1996 AT&T: Telecom Service Spinoff completion NCR: Computer maker AT&T 11/15/2000 Liberty Media Department acquired from TCI Spinoff AT&T 10/25/2000 AT&T Business, AT&T Spinoff Wireless, AT&T Broadband AT&T Consumer Atlantic Tele-Network 1/26/1998 Emerging Spinoff Communications Bell Canada 1/25/2000 Nortel Part of Nortel’s Enterprises stake (Carve-out) Bellsouth 9/1/1998 BellSouth New Zealand British Telecom PLC 11/8/2000 Ignite: data-centric, Debt: $ billion broadband IP Spinoff Btopenworld: ISP & Portal BT Wireless: Mobile Yell: Cablevision 12/1/1999 Rainbow Media Group: 77
national programming Century Telephone 8/18/1998 Alaskan operations Enterprises Inc Cincinnati Bell Inc 4/27/1998 Convergys Corporation: customer-care and billing 11/1998 business Cirrus Logic 3/22/2000 BASIS Communications Carve-out to Intel Communications 3/24/1997 Ascent Entertainment Spinoff Satellite Corp(Comsat) Group Comsat 3/24/1997 Comsat RSI C-Tec Corp 2/14/1997 CTCo Spinoff C-Tec Cable Systems Deutsche Telekom 5/19/1998 Kabel Deutschland GmbH: Spinoff Cable business MediaServices GmbH:ISP Deutsche Telekom AG 1/19/1999 T-Online International Spinoff (ISP) Echostar 2/24/1997 international businesses Spinoff France Télécom SA 9/22/2000 Orange Spinoff France Télécom SA 5/31/2000 Wanadoo: Portal Spinoff Global Crossing 4/18/2000 GlobalCenter Inc. First tracking stock Then spinoff Global Crossing 1/2/2001 Global Crossing Solutions Spinoff Global Crossing 3/17/1999 local phone business Spinoff (not enough data range) GTE 4/6/2000 GTE Internetworking The former BBN Planet Network. Genuity Previously acquired by GTE in order to get approval from FCC. Divestiture GTE 6/25/1999 GTE Airfone Divestiture 78
H&R Block Inc. 2/20/1996 CompuServe Spinoff Hicks, Muse, Tate & 9/10/1997 OmniAmerica Wireless . Divestiture Furst Inc (not listed) IDT 5/18/1999 Net2Phone Spinoff Previously acquired units. Informission Group 3/30/2000 Telecom Business Unit Spinoff Inc(Canada) (not listed) Intelligent 10/16/1996 XLConnect Solutions Inc Spinoff Electronics(INEL) (acquired by xerox) KDDI 8/21/2000 Mobile unit Spinoff previously acquired unit. Lucent 12/11/2000 Agere Systems Spinoff Lucent 3/1/2000 Avaya: Switchband, Spinoff Corporate Cabling, Local Area Network MCI 3/13/1998 Caliber: system for Spinoff delivering graduate and professional courses via satellite consumer long distance divisions MCI 8/13/1998 Concert Communications: In order to get the Internet backbone approval from FCC to merge with Worldcom. Spinoff MCI Worldcom 5/27/1998 UUNet In order to get approval to merge with MCI. MCI Worldcom 11/1/2000 MCI: Consumer Business Spinoff Motorola 1/8/1997 NextLevel Systems Spinoff 79
CommScope Motorola 5/11/1999 low-cost semiconductors Divestiture News Corp 6/21/2000 Net Media Spinoff Nortel 1/3/1997 Entrust Technologies Inc: Spinoff Secure Network business unit Nortel 7/24/2000 fibre-optics components Divestiture previously acquired unit Nortel 5/19/1999 Elastic Networks Spinoff Nortel 7/2/1999 Channelware Spinoff Nortel 3/10/2000 NETGEAR Spinoff NTT 4/1992 NTT DOCOMO Spinoff NTT 9/17/1996 NTT Spinoff COMMUNICATIONWARE CORPORATION NTT 1998 NTT DATA Spinoff Communications NTT 12/6/1996 NTT East: Spinoff 1/7/1999: NTT West Completion : Long-distance and international business Olivetti SpA 1/14/1997 PC unit Divestiture Orckit 2/25/2000 semi-conductor related Spinoff business Pacific Telesis() 12/14/1992 AirTouch Communcations Spinoff Portugal Telecom(PT) 12/20/1999 PT Multimedia SA : Spinoff internet division QUALCOMM 7/24/2000 QUALCOMM CDMA Spinoff Technologies QUALCOMM 9/10/1998 Leap Wireless Spinoff International: wireless-communications operating company 80
Qwest 3/14/2000 long-distance voice and Divestiture data operations Rockwell 3/13/1997 Meritor Automotive Spinoff Rockwell 6/29/1998 Conexant System Spinoff Shaw Communications 12/23/1999 Shaw FiberLink Divestiture Inc Shaw Communications 9/2/1999 Corus Spinoff Inc (not enough data) Siemens 8/17/1999 Epcos Spinoff Southern New England 9/21/1998 distinct wholesale retail Spinoff Telecommunications operations Corp (SBC’s subsidiary) Sprint 7/24/1995 360° Communication: Spinoff-Alltel Wireless Sprint 5/22/1998 Sprint PCS: Domestic A joint venture with wireless personal TCI, Comcast, Cox communications communications in 1996. SPX Corp 9/13/2000 InRange Technologies Corp Spinoff Telebrás(Brazil) 4/6/1998 12 companies Spinoff (not enough data) Telecom Italia 11/22/1999 : Internet Service Spinoff Tele-Communications 12/6/1996 Liberty Media Spinoff Tele-Communications( Telephony Group TCI) Tele-Communications(12/1996 TCI Satellite Spinoff TCI) Entertainment Telefonica 4/24/2000 Telefonica Media SA Spinoff previously acquired units Telefonica 10/27/1999 Terra Network: ISP Spinoff Previously acquired units. Telefonica 11/14/1999 Telefonica: Spinoff previously acquired mobile 81
Moviles acquired mobile units. TELEPHONE & DATA 12/8/1998 Aerial Communications Spinoff SYSTEMS Teltrust DotOne Corporation DotOne was latterly acquired by Critical Path. Time Warner 4/7/1998 Time Warner Telecom Inc: Spinoff TCI Assets business-telephone operations . LONG DISTANCE 1996 Billing Information Corp. Concepts Corp. US West 4/3/1995 US West Media Previously listed as tracking stock, and (MediaOne) was spun off later. US West 10/28/1997 U S West Communications Spinoff Group US West 1/3/2000 Global Crossing Carve out Global Crossing stake Viacom 5/7/1999 Blockbuster Previously acquired(5 yr) Vodafone-AirTouch 6/12/2000 Infostrada Spinoff previous acquired Western Wireless 10/29/1998 VoiceStream Wireless Spinoff Corporation World Access 12/13/1999 equipment division Spinoff 룪껆꣓랽ꅇ뿠ꭈꓒꅂꟵꖿꗁ뻣뉺 82
ꑇꅂAT&T궫굮ꗳ꙾ꫭ?1982ꛜ2000꙾??1. 01/08/82:AT&T and the Justice Department agree on tentative terms for settlement of anti-trust suit filed against AT&T in 1974. AT&T agrees to divest itself of its local telephone operations. In return, the Justice Department agrees to lift the restrictions on AT&T activities contained in the 1956 Consent Decree. The agreement, once accepted by the court, becomes known as the Modification of Final Judgment or MFJ. 2. 01/01/84:The Bell System ceases to exist. In its place are seven Regional Bell Operating Companies and a new AT&T that retains its long distance telephone, manufacturing, and research and development operations. 3. 09/19/91:AT&T acquires computer maker NCR Corporation in an attempt to realize the synergies it believed inherent in the coming integration of computing and communications 4. 08/16/93:AT&T announces a definitive merger agreement with McCaw Cellular Communications Inc, the largest provider of cellular service in the United States. The acquisition is later renamed AT&T Wireless. AT&T completes the transaction in 1994. 5. 09/20/95:AT&T Chairman Robert Allen announced that AT&T will divide itself into three independent, publicly traded companies: a long-distance service company, an equipment business, and a computer-making company. The spin-off will be completed in December the following year. 6. 11/15/95:AT&T offers buyout packages to almost 78,000 managers as it charts major cuts in breaking up into three independent companies. 7. 11/20/95:AT&T is weighing a major investment in Time-Warner Cable. 8. 01/03/96:AT&T will eliminate 40,000 jobs as it prepares for the split. 9. 02/06/96:AT&T names its gear business Lucent, releases data on growth before spin-off. 10. 04/04/96:Lucent’s initial offering nets record $ billion, the largest IPO in American history. 11. 04/30/96:Lucent’s underwriters bathe AT&T spin-off in mostly so-so ratings despite big run-up. 12. 06/12/96:AT&T challenges the Bell companies. Chairman Allen outlines plans to take big part of local market over next several years. 83
13. 09/27/96:AT&T discloses a detailed plan on NCR spin-off. 14. 12/05/96:New AT&T division targets local services in Baby Bells’ markets, division with five regions will coordinate assault in local phone services. 15. 02/24/97:AT&T steps up fight for local markets. Wireless network system aimed at the Baby Bells will undergo testing. 16. 03/04/97:AT&T plans $9 billion outlay this year to expand its network to new markets. 17. 05/27/97:AT&T is in talks to merge with SBC Communications, owner of the vast Southwestern Bell and Pacific Telesis local-phone systems, in a $50 billion-plus deal that would be the largest corporate combination in history. 18. 06/11/97:AT&T is constructing large regional rings, using high-speed fiber-optic gear, to form the back-bone of a national voice and data system. AT&T is spending $300 million in Chicago on fiber-optic equipment, switches and software to serve local customers in competition with Ameritech. 19. 06/18/97:Lucent Technologies agreed to merge its consumer-phone unit with that of Philip Electronics. The new company will be controlled 60% by the Dutch electronics giant, Lucent will hold the remaining stake. 20. 07/18/97:Lucent Technologies agreed to pay $ billion to acquire voice-mail-systems makers Octel Communications. The move clearly signals that Lucent wants to plug a hole in its product line and boost sales to phone companies and major corporations. 21. 01/08/98:AT&T is expected to purchase Teleport in a stock deal valued up to $11 billion. 22. 04/28/98:Lucent agrees to buy data-equipment supplier Yurie Systems for $1 billion. 23. 06/24/98:AT&T appears close to a deal to acquire Tele-Communications Inc. for 30 billion. This combination would give long-distance company route around Baby Bell. TCI becomes AT&T Broadband & Internet Services. 24. 07/26/98:AT&T and BT announced they would create a $10 billion global venture to serve customers around the world. 25. 11/11/98:AT&T launches Concert Services and introduces a new suite of enhanced international voice, data, and Internet Protocol (IP) services to be sold under the AT&T Concert name. 84
26. 12/08/98:AT&T and IBM announced a series of strategic agreements under which AT&T will acquire IBM’s Global Network business for $5 billion in cash, and the two companies will enter into outsourcing contracts with each other. 27. 02/01/99:AT&T announced a Communications Joint Venture with Time Warner. This strategic relationship will offer AT&T-branded cable telephony service to residential and small business customers over Time Warner’s existing cable television systems in 33 states. 28. 03/03/99:AT&T acquires Vanguard cellular, one of the largest independent operators of cellular telephone systems in the US. 29. 03/04/99:AT&T Canada announced a merger with MetroNet Communications. 30. 04/15/99:AT&T completes a 3 for 2 stock split, issuing one additional share of AT&T common stock for each two shares owned on March 31, 1999. 31. 04/22/99:AT&T submitted an offer to acquire all of MediaOne Group for $62 billion in cash, stock and assumed debt and preferred equity. 32. 12/06/99:AT&T announces plans to create a new wireless company, AT&T Wireless Group, and a new class of AT&T common stock that will track the performance of the new enterprise. 33. 04/27/00:AT&T Wireless Group (AWE) tracking stock traded publicly in NYSE (IPO). 34. 06/29/00:AT&T Wireless completes acquisition of Bay Area Cellular Telephone Company in San Francisco Bay area, San Diego and Houston markets. 35. 10/25/00:AT&T announces the spin-off plans to create four new publicly held companies from its current business groups: Wireless, Consumer, Broadband, and Business. 36. 11/15/00:AT&T announces plan to spin off Liberty Media Group. 85
ꑔꅂAT&T꧳닄ꑔꚸꗸ띾꓀돎듁뚡늼믹껦돸믹?Date?Open?High?Low?Close?Volume?Adj. Close*?10-Nov-00? 룪껆꣓랽ꅇ / 86
ꕼꅂAT&T믹돸륓뉶쇍뛕맏 (ꑀ) AT&T꫱ꑀ꙾듁뚡ꓩ룪껆믹 Spin-offsannouncementdate(Oct-25-00)룪껆듁뚡ꅇ~ 룪껆꣓랽ꅇ / (ꑇ) AT&T뭐S&P 500꫱ꑀ꙾듁뚡ꓩ룪껆돸륓뉶쇍뛕맏 Spin-offsannouncementdate(Oct-25-00)룪껆듁뚡ꅇ~ 룪껆꣓랽ꅇ / 87
꒭ꅂꅵ꓀돎ꯅꝩꓩꪺ뙗썂돸륓ꅶSAS땻ꚡ ꖻꗳ곣ꡳ놴끑ꅇAT&T닄ꑔꚸꗸ띾꓀돎ꯅꝩꓩ걏ꝟ늣ꗍ뙗썂돸륓ꅃꕈ꓀돎ꯅꝩꓩ꒧ꭥ50ꓩꛜꯡ5ꓩ결ꗳ곣ꡳ꒧볋ꖻꓑ볆ꅁꣃ군뫢Ꙣ꒣Ꙑꪺ껉뚡냏뚡ꑕ꒧닖뽮뙗썂돸륓ꅁ꣺꣤ꖭꞡ돸륓뉶ꯡꙁ뭐룓ꓩꭥ250ꓩꛜꭥ101ꓩ꒧늼ꖭꞡ돸륓뉶Ꝁꓱ룻ꅁ샋뗸꣤걏ꝟꙢ꓀돎ꯅꝩ껉ꚳ뱶암믹ꫭ뉻ꅃꣃꝑꗎꖫ돵볒ꚡꝀ끪쉫꓀꩒ꅁꕈS&P 500믹볆돸륓뉶결ꙝ엜볆ꅁAT&T믹돸륓뉶결ꛛ엜볆ꅁꛓ뭾깴뚵(Error Term)결뙗썂돸륓꒧왛맮귈ꅃ 땻?ꚡ?뎡?ꗷ dm'log;clear;out;clear'; %macro dummy; %do a=201 %to 256; d&a=0; if obs=&a then d&a=1; %end; %mend dummy; data one; filename da dde "excel|table!r2c1:r257c3"; infile da; input ri rm obs; %dummy; proc print; run; 88
proc reg data=one; model ri=rm d201 - d256; run; 땻?ꚡ?떲?ꩇ The SAS System Model: MODEL1 Dependent Variable: RI Analysis of Variance †Sum of Mean Source DF Squares Square F Value Prob>F Model 57 Error 198 C Total 255 Root MSE R-square Dep Mean Adj R-sq . 89
