뗚7뻭뗚1웚샭ꆡ뿆ꆡ톧ꆡ톧ꆡ놨2004쓪2퓂ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ맜ꆡJOURNALOFMANAGEMENTSCIENCESINCHINAꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ믹폚웚볤쫕틦뗄웳튵늢릺첸에쒣탍ꋙ웫낲쳰1,헅ꆡ캬2(11맣랢횤좯늩쪿뫳릤ퟷ햾,맣훝510075;21쳬뷲닆뺭톧풺,쳬뷲300022)햪튪:뷨본킭짌뫍쳖볛뮹볛샭싛,붨솢쇋웳튵늢릺첸에쒣탍,샻폃늩?싛릤뻟뛔쒣탍뷸탐쇋쟳뷢.춬쪱,헫뛔튻킩늢릺첸에탨튪쪱볤뷏뎤뗄쿖쪵쟩뿶,뛔쒿뇪웳튵퓚첸에웚볤뻟폐웚볤쫕틦뗄늢릺첸에쒣탍뷸탐쇋튻킩돵늽뗄퇐뺿.맘볼듊:웳튵늢릺;첸에;틩볛;웚볤쫕틦훐춼럖샠뫅:F403ꆡꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:Aꆡꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:1007-9807(2004)01-0073-070ꆡ틽ꆡ퇔15\]bidding)쟩탎쿂엄싴뺺뇪볛룱뗄좷뚨\[13ꆫ.퓚맺췢늢릺쫐뎡짏,뇪릺쫇ퟮ훷튪뗄쫕릺탎쪽,뛔웳튵늢릺쫇좫쟲놾쫐뎡뗄죈뗣컊쳢,뛸늢릺늢릺붻틗볛룱뗄샭싛퇐뺿뚼쫇퓚뇪릺뫍뛠룶쫕릺헟뺺붻틗볛룱뗄좷뚨쫇헻룶늢릺맽돌뗄붹뗣.뛔웳튵늢볛뗄믹뒡짏뷸탐뗄.떫쫇,퓚훐맺뗄늢릺쪵볹훐,평폚쒳릺붻틗볛룱컊쳢뗄퇐뺿훷튪냼삨솽룶믹놾늽훨:쫗킩쳵볾뗄쿞훆쪹뇪릺퓚쫂쪵짏돉캪늻뿉쓜,킭틩쫕릺햼쿈튪좷뚨쒿뇪웳튵뗄쓚퓚볛횵,웤듎튪퇐뺿퓚늻춬뻝쇋훐맺늢릺쫐뎡뗄훷쇷.뺡맜쯦ퟅ횤좯쫐뎡뗄랢햹뫍뗄붻틗쳵볾쿂ퟮ훕뗄늢릺붻틗볛룱.뛔쒿뇪웳튵쓚돉쫬,뇪릺퓚컒맺붫폐뫜듳랢햹,떫퓚뛌웚쓚,킭틩쫕릺퓚볛횵뗄퇐뺿맺쓚췢틑뺭탎돉쇋뇈뷏만뚨뗄움맀뮹붫쫇컒맺웳튵늢릺뗄훷튪탎쪽횮튻,퇐뺿킭짌첸에쟩쳥쾵,탎돉쇋뫜뛠폐킧뗄맀볛쒣탍,뇈뷏뗤탍뗄폐탎쿂늢릺붻틗볛룱뗄좷뚨뻟폐뫜잿뗄쿖쪵틢틥.맺췢늢쟇뛻ꆤ쮹쳘뛷(JoelStern)쒣탍ꆢ낢뛻뢥샗뗂ꆤ삭냍늨릺샭싛좱랦뛔킭짌틩볛쟩탎쿂늢릺붻틗볛룱뗄좷뚨뷸쳘(AlfredRappaport)쒣탍틔벰쏗샕ꆪꆪꆪ쒪뗏샻낲쓡탐퇐뺿,컒맺샭싛뷧뗄퇐뺿죔믹놾닠훘폚웳튵볛횵움맀(MillerandModigliani)쒣탍뗈\[1\].퓚쒿뇪웳튵쓚퓚볛횵좷뚨뗄믹뒡짏,샭싛뷧헫뛔늻춬뗄늢릺붻틗쟩닣쏦짏,죧탬랲,돂쿾붣,샮뎤쟠,캺붭뗈죋뗄릤ퟷ\[16ꆫ18\],뿶뛔킭틩쫕릺뗄볛룱좷뚨컊쳢뮹쎻폐붨솢쿠펦뗄퇐뺿쒣,뛔늢릺붻틗볛룱뗄좷뚨뷸탐쇋듳솿뗄퇐뺿.Grossman뫍Hart쫗쿈쳡돶쇋뇪릺탍.틲듋,놾컄뷨본늩?싛훐폐맘쳖볛뮹볛뗄샭싛퇐뺿,(TenderOffer)쟩탎쿂훐킡막뚫뗄듮뇣뎵컊쳢뛔킭틩쫕릺볛룱뗄탎돉맽돌뷸탐퇐뺿,ퟅ훘럖컶쫕릺쮫\[2\],Shleifer뫍Vishny,Hirshleifer뫍Titm랽뗄틩볛탐캪뫍뻹뫢뷡맻.an,Bagnoli뫍Lipman틔벰틩볛샭싛좡뗃춻웆뗄뇪횾쫇20쫀볍50쓪듺돵Jegadeesh뫍Chowdhry뗈퇐뺿쇋듮뇣뎵컊쳢쿂쫕릺헟뗄ퟮ폅돶볛닟싔,쳡돶쇋듮뇣뎵컊쳢뗄뷢뻶랽Nash틔벰Shapley뗈뒴퓬탔뗘붫틩볛쟩뺰쫓캪늩?낸\[3ꆫ6\];Baron,G쟩뺰,늢퓋폃릫샭뮯랽램(axiomaticapproach)뛔웤뷸iammarino뫍Heinkel틔벰Khanna뛔펢쪽엄싴쒣탍퓚늢릺볛룱좷뚨훐뗄펦폃뷸탐쇋퇐탐쒣탍뮯\[19,20\].Stahl벰Rubinstein뗈붨솢쇋싖쇷돶볛뺿\[7ꆫ9\];Burkart,Singh틔벰Bulow,Huang뫍뗄쳖볛뮹볛쒣탍(alternatingoffersmodel),폃ퟓ늩?뺫Klemperer뗈퇐뺿쇋릺잰돖막(Toeholds)뛔뺺뇪볛룱솶뻹뫢뗄룅쓮돉릦뗘뷢뻶쇋췪좫탅쾢쿂뗄첸에컊탐캪뗄펰쿬\[10ꆫ12\];Fishman,Hirshleifer뫍Pꆯng틔벰쳢\[21,22\].Kreps뫍Wilson퓚ퟓ늩?뺫솶뻹뫢룅쓮뗄믹Daneil뫍Hirshleifer퇐뺿쇋쿈훃뺺볛(preemptive뒡짏,쳡돶쇋ꆰ탲맡뻹뫢ꆱ(sequentialequilibrium)뗄룅ꋙ쫕룥죕웚:2002-10-02;탞뚩죕웚:2003-11-18.ퟷ헟볲뷩:웫낲쳰(1970ꆪ),쓐,뫓놱새랻죋,늩쪿뫳.
ꆪ74ꆪ맜ꆡ샭ꆡ뿆ꆡ톧ꆡ톧ꆡ놨ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2004쓪2퓂쓮,뛔늻췪좫탅쾢첸에컊쳢뗄퇐뺿뻟폐훘튪뗄ퟷ퓚튻쿮웳튵늢릺훐,듦퓚떥튻쫕릺릫쮾(폃B뇭폃\[23\].떫쫇,짏쫶뛔틩볛컊쳢뗄퇐뺿뚼틾몬ퟅ튻룶잰쪾)뫍떥튻쒿뇪릫쮾(폃S뇭쪾),쮫랽뻍늢릺붻틗볛쳡볙짨,벴첸에웚볤뇪뗄컯늻룸붻틗쮫랽듸살죎뫎룱뷸탐첸에.쒿뇪릫쮾놣쇴볛횵벴뿉뷓쫜뗄ퟮ뗍볛킧폃,뛸퓚쪵볊뗄웳튵늢릺훐,튻킩늢릺첸에췹췹튪룱캪vs,쫕릺릫쮾놣쇴볛횵벴뿉횧뢶뗄ퟮ룟볛룱캪뷸탐벸룶퓂짵훁벸쓪뗄쪱볤,듋쪱,첸에웚볤뗄쒿뇪vb,뿉횪튪놣횤늢릺랢짺,붻틗볛룱P펦싺ퟣvsꇜ웳튵킧틦틑늻쓜뫶싔,헢킩킧틦냼삨첸에웚볤뗄쒿Pꇜvb.죴붻틗돉릦,B뗄쫕틦캪(vb-P),S뗄쫕틦뇪웳튵뺭펪쫕틦틔벰맜샭닣뗄룶죋킧폃,캪볲뇣볆,캪(P-vs).쇮ꛐ=vb-vs,볙짨ꛐ캪릲춬횪쪶(퓚쿖놾컄춨돆캪쒿뇪웳튵뗄ꆰ웚볤쫕틦ꆱ.폐본폚듋,놾컄쪵훐v뗄쇭튻쿮훘뗣쫇퓚틽죫틩볛샭싛붨솢킭틩쫕릺뚨볛s뫍vb뿉틔퓚튻뚨쳵볾쿂맀볆돶살,닎볻컄쿗믹놾쒣탍뗄믹뒡짏,뛔믹폚웚볤쫕틦뗄웳튵늢릺볛[17]),퓲늢릺붻틗쮫랽첸에뗄붹뗣퓚폚쮫랽쫕틦퓚룱첸에쒣탍뷸탐퇐뺿\[0,ꛐ]횮볤죧뫎럖엤.쇮xs=P-vs,xb=vb-P=.ꛐ-xs,틲듋쮫랽쳡돶붻틗볛룱P뿉틔뮯캪쳡돶xs,퓚듋냑늢릺쮫랽뗄돶볛(offer)뻹뾼싇캪쳡돶룷1ꆡ늢릺첸에쒣탍뗄붨솢ퟔ뗄vs좡횵,퓲B뗄쫕틦쿠펦캪ꛐ-xs.뷨본Rubinstein뗄쮼슷[21],럖컶죧쿂뗄싖쇷틔킭틩뗄탎쪽뷸탐볦늢쫕릺춨뎣탨튪뺭맽쫕돶볛(alternating2offer)맽돌:늢릺쮫랽퓚샫즢뗄쪱릺쮫랽횮볤뗄첸에뫍쳖볛뮹볛맽돌.퓚짆틢늢릺볤뗣0,ꚤ,2ꚤ,3ꚤ,ꆭ,tꚤ,ꆭ짏싖쇷쳡돶쫕릺볛훐,웳튵늢릺쮫랽뗄맜샭닣ퟷ캪놾웳튵막뚫뗄듺룱,웤훐ꚤ>0뇭쪾돶볛뗄쪱볤볤룴.폃xt,i뇭쪾샭,뻍늢릺붻틗뷸탐첸에뫍틩볛틔좷뚨ퟮ훕뗄붻퓚tꚤ쪱뿌뻖훐죋i쯹믱뗃쫕틦뗄럝뛮,웤훐,i=틗볛룱.퓚놾컄뗄웳튵늢릺붻틗첸에믹놾쒣탍붨SB,,퓲뻖훐죋i뗄쿠펦킧폃뿉뇭쪾캪u(ixt,s,솢횮잰,ퟷ죧쿂잰쳡볙짨:xt,b)=xt,i.퓚쪱뿌0,쫗쿈평S쿲B쳡돶돶볛(1)듦퓚떥튻싲랽(횸쫕릺웳튵)뫍떥튻싴랽x1,s,죧맻B뷓쫜룃돶볛,퓲쮫랽듯돉튻훂,늩?뷡(횸쒿뇪웳튵);쫸,쮫랽내헕S뗄돶볛뛔헻쳥쫕틦ꛐ뷸탐럖엤,쫕(2)쫐뎡쫇컞쒦닁뗄,벴늻듦퓚붻틗돉놾;틦럖뇰캪x1,s뫍x1,b=ꛐ-x1,s.죧맻B늻뷓쫜S(3)쪱볤쫇폐볛횵뗄,듓뛸듙쪹늢릺쮫랽뺡뿬듯돉킭틩뗄돶볛,퓲늩?뷸죫뗚2뷗뛎,B믡퓚쪱뿌ꚤ>0;뷸탐랴놨볛(counteroffer),벴쳡돶x2,s.죧맻A뷓(4)쒿뇪웳튵퓚쫕릺웳튵맜샭닣뗄뺭펪쿂벨킧폅폚풭폐맜샭닣,늢릺돉릦뛔쮫랽폐샻,쮫랽틩쫜B뗄랴놨볛,퓲쮫랽듯돉튻훂,늩?뷡쫸,쮫랽볛뗄붹뗣퓚폚뛔쫕릺닺짺뗄킧틦죧뫎럖엤쫕틦럖뇰캪x2,s뫍x2,b=ꛐ-x2,s.럱퓲,늩?뷸죫;뗚3뷗뛎,A믡퓚쪱뿌2ꚤ퓙듎뷸탐랴놨볛,벴쳡(5)싲랽뗄놣쇴볛횵(reservationvalue)퇏룱듳폚싴랽뗄놣쇴볛횵,틔놣횤붻틗랢짺돶x3,s,ꆭ,헢튻돶볛뫍랴돶볛뗄맽돌돖탸뷸탐쿂.좥,횱떽죎뫎튻랽뻖훐죋뷓쫜뛔랽뗄놨볛,쮫랽듯(6)늢릺쮫랽뗄놣쇴볛횵캪늩?룷랽뗄릲춬횪쪶(comm돉킭틩캪횹.헻룶틩볛맽돌죧춼1쯹쪾.onknowledge);춼1ꆡ늢릺틩볛맽돌쒣탍
뗚1웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ웫낲쳰뗈:믹폚웚볤쫕틦뗄웳튵늢릺첸에쒣탍ꆪ75ꆪꆡꆡ뾼싇떽첸에뗄쪱볤볛횵,뚨틥뻖훐죋뗄쳹쿖퓚t=2,4,6,ꆭ뷗뛎:뷓쫜죎뫎듳폚믲뗈폚싊캪rꛐꛄi,i=S,B,쇮ꛄi=(1/1+ꚤr)i,뇭쪾뻖훐죋s(1-ꛄb)/(1-ꛄsꛄb)뗄돶볛,뻜뻸죎뫎뷏킡뗄i뗄쳹쿖틲ퟓ,쿔좻폐0<ꛄi<1,뇭쏷틩볛훷쳥럝뛮.뗄쪱볤욫뫃믲헟쮵쪱볤룸웤퓬돉뗄돉놾,쪹뗃웳쫕릺웳튵B뗄ퟓ늩?뺫솶뻹뫢닟싔캪:튵늢릺헻쳥쫕틦ꛐ쯦ퟅ늩?싖듎뗄췆뷸,틔쳹쿖퓚t=1,3,5,ꆭ뷗뛎:뷓쫜죎뫎듳폚믲뗈폚틲ퟓꛄ뛸늻뛏쯵킡.ꛐꛄb(1-ꛄs)/(1-ꛄsꛄb)뗄돶볛,뻜뻸죎뫎뷏킡뗄룃늩?쒣탍훐,뻖훐죋뗄닟싔벯뿉뇭쪾캪럝뛮;ꆡX={(xs,x퓚t=2,4,6,ꆭ뷗뛎:돶볛3xb):xsꇝ0,xbꇝ0,쟒xs+xbꇜꛐ}(1)b=ꛐ(1-죴늢릺쮫랽퓚뗚t뷗뛎듯돉튻훂,늢릺쫕틦ꛄs)/(1-ꛄsꛄb);럖엤캪(x212ꆡ늻췪좫탅쾢쟩탎t,s,ꛐ-xt,s),퓲솽룶뻖훐죋뗄킧폃몯쫽럖뇰캪뛔뻖훐죋뗄쳹쿖틲ퟓꛄi캪쮽폐탅쾢뗄늻췪u좫탅쾢늢릺첸에쒣탍,볙짨싴랽벴쒿뇪웳튵S뗄s(xt,s,ꛐ-xt,s)=ꛄt-1sxt,sub(xt,s,ꛐ-xt,s)=ꛄt-1b(ꛐ-x쳹쿖틲ퟓꛄs쫇릲춬횪쪶,뛸싲랽벴쫕릺웳튵B뗄t,s)(2)퓚놾컄붨솢뗄늢릺첸에쒣탍훐,내늢릺쮫랽쳹쿖틲ퟓꛄb쫇쮽폐탅쾢,횻폐Bퟔ벺횪뗀.S뛔B쫇럱맦뚨쇋첸에뗄ퟮ훕웚쿞뿉럖캪폐쿞웚뫍컞쿞뗄쳹쿖틲ퟓꛄb폐쿠펦뗄룅싊맀볆,캪럖컶랽뇣,웚늢릺첸에쒣탍;내뻖훐죋뗄쳹쿖틲ퟓꛄi쫇럱캪볙짨ꛄb뷶폐솽훖샠탍:틔룅싊ph좡ꛄh뫍틔룅싊pl릲춬횪쪶뿉럖캪췪좫탅쾢뫍늻췪좫탅쾢늢릺첸에좡ꛄl,늢쟒싺ퟣ쒣탍.0<ꛄl<ꛄs<ꛄh<1뫍ph+pl=1뛔헢튻늻췪좫탅쾢늢릺첸에쒣탍뷸탐쟳뷢,2ꆡ늢릺첸에쒣탍뗄쟳뷢뗃떽틔쿂뷡싛:뷡싛2ꆡ퓚컞웚쿞늻췪좫탅쾢늢릺첸에늩?놾컄닉폃뚯첬맦뮮뗄떹쿲맩쓉(backward훐,뻖훐죋뗄ퟓ늩?뺫솶뻹뫢닟싔캪:induction)랽램쟳뷢늢릺첸에쒣탍,벴쿈뾼싇ퟮ뫳죧맻phꛄsgh+(1-ph)[ꛐ-ꛄ(ꛐl-ꛄsgh)]>튻룶ퟓ늩?(sub2game),퓚룃ퟓ늩?훐,쏦쇙뻶닟1-ꛄh뗄뻖훐죋붫톡퓱튻룶ퟮ듳뮯ퟔ벺횧뢶,퓲쒿뇪웳튵S퓚뗚튻뷗뛎돶볛3x11,s-ꛄsꛄꛐ=(payoffh,튲뿉돆캪ꆰ킧폃ꆱ)뗄닟싔;룸뚨헢룶뻖훐죋뗄톡퓱ꛐ-ꛄ(ꛐ,l-ꛄsgh);럱퓲돶볛gh=[(1-ꛄh)/(1-퓚떹쫽뗚뛾룶ퟓ늩?훐,쇭튻룶뻖훐죋믡톡퓱튻ꛄsꛄh)]ꛐ.샠탍h뗄쫕릺웳튵믡뻜뻸S퓚뗚튻뷗뛎룶뿉탐뗄닟싔ퟮ듳뮯ퟔ벺뗄횧뢶;죧듋훰늽쿲뫳뗄돶볛,샠탍l뗄쫕릺웳튵붫뷓쫜S뗄돶볛.맩쓉,횱떽늩?뗄돵쪼뷡(initialnode).떱헢룶떹낸샽럖컶:췆맽돌췪돉쪱,뿉틔뗃떽튻룶슷뺶,룃슷뺶룸돶쇋쒳랿뗘닺뾪랢릫쮾B틲튵컱췘햹탨튪,쓢볦쎿튻룶뻖훐죋뗄튻룶쳘뚨뗄햽싔,쯹폐헢킩햽싔늢쫐훐탄튻볒짺닺쿝죫삧뺳뗄붨훾릫쮾S,늢볆릹돉튻룶쓉쪲뻹뫢.욪럹쯹쿞,쿂쏦횻룸돶컞쿞웚뮮퓚쫕릺돉릦틔뫳붫룃붨훾릫쮾냬릫뗘뗣잨췹쫐쟩탎쿂췪좫탅쾢뫍늻췪좫탅쾢늢릺첸에쒣탍뗄쟳붼,냑릫쮾뻉횷폃살뾪랢룟떵킴ퟖ슥쿮쒿.뺭돤럖뷢뷡맻.뗷퇐,솽웳튵뗄놣쇴볛횵럖뇰캪vs=28503췲풪211ꆡ췪좫탅쾢쟩탎뫍vb=16739췲풪.쯦뫳쮫랽뻶뚨뻍쫕릺볛룱컊뛔뻖훐죋뗄쳹쿖틲ퟓꛄi캪릲춬횪쪶뗄췪좫쳢뷸탐첸에.첸에틩돌맦뚨쮫랽닉폃컞ퟮ훕웚쿞탅쾢늢릺첸에쒣탍,놾컄뗃떽틔쿂뷡싛:싖쇷돶볛뗄랽쪽,평쒿뇪웳튵S쫗쿈쳡돶쫕릺볛뷡싛1ꆡ퓚컞쿞웚췪좫탅쾢늢릺첸에늩?룱,쫕릺웳튵B탨퓚튻룶탇웚틔쓚뛔S뗄놨볛ퟶ훐,쒿뇪웳튵S뗄ퟓ늩?뺫솶뻹뫢닟싔캪:돶랴펦,죧뷓쫜퓲쮫랽듯돉튻훂,럱퓲B탨튪쳡돶퓚t=1,3,5,ꆭ뷗뛎:돶볛3xs=ꛐ(1-탂뗄놨볛,퓙평Sퟶ돶톡퓱,튻횱떽쮫랽듯돉튻훂ꛄb)/(1-ꛄsꛄb);틢볻캪횹.틑횪퓚첸에웚볤쓚S뗄쳹쿖틲ퟓꛄs=
ꆪ76ꆪ맜ꆡ샭ꆡ뿆ꆡ톧ꆡ톧ꆡ놨ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2004쓪2퓂캪쮫랽뗄릲춬횪쪶,떫쫇쫕릺웳튵B뗄쳹쿖틲웳튵킧틦틑늻쓜뫶싔.쿖폐뗄웳튵늢릺컄쿗늢쎻ퟓ캪쮽폐탅쾢,S뷶횪뗀B튪쎴뛔첸에쿠뛔폐쓍폐뛔쒿뇪웳튵퓚첸에웚볤뻟폐ꆰ웚볤쫕틦ꆱ뗄쟩탄,쳹쿖틲ퟓ캪ꛄh=,튪쎴B늻짆폚첸에,쳹탎뷸탐퇐뺿,폐본폚듋,퓚놾뷚훐붨솢쇋믹폚웚볤쿖틲ퟓ캪ꛄ쫕틦뗄웳튵늢릺첸에쒣탍,쿂쏦쫗쿈룸돶맘폚ꆰ웚l=,헢솽훖샠탍룷햼1/2뗄뿉쓜.춨맽뛔룃낸샽뗄럖컶,뿉틔죏캪룃낸샽쫇늻볤쫕틦ꆱ뗄헽쪽뚨틥.췪좫탅쾢컞웚쿞늢릺첸에늩?뗄쟩뿶,뿉틔횱뷓ꆰ웚볤쫕틦ꆱ,쫇횸튻쿮늢릺첸에훐,퓚첸에ퟮ닉폃뷡싛2쟳뷢.평낸샽훐뗄쫽뻝훕킭틩쎻폐듯돉잰,평폚쒿뇪웳튵뗄볌탸퓋펪,룃,ꛄs=,ꛄh=웳튵뗄막뚫뫍맜샭닣퓚첸에웚볤쯹믱뗃뗄쫕틦뗄,ꛄl=,ph=pl=1/2,vs=16739췲풪,ퟜ뫍.vb=28503췲풪,ꛐ=vb-vs=28503-16739볙짨쒿뇪웳튵뗄맜샭닣퓚첸에훐듺뇭막뚫뗄=11764췲풪,ꚤ=7d.틲듋폐샻틦,벴늻듦퓚ힷ쟳쮽죋샻틦뗄탐캪,틲듋퓚뾼싇1-ꛄ==1웚볤쫕틦뗄늢릺첸에쒣탍훐늢늻뮮럖쒿뇪웳튵뗄-ꛄsꛄꛐꇁꇁ11764=(췲풪막뚫뫍맜샭닣,뛸횻쫇랺횸퓚첸에웚볤쒿뇪웳튵)춬쪱쯹믱뗃뗄킧폃.ꆰ웚볤쫕틦ꆱ뗄듦퓚,룄뇤쇋쒿뇪,폐웳튵뗄틩볛쓜솦,뷸뛸펰쿬쇋늢릺첸에뗄뷡맻.phꛄsgh+(1-ph)[ꛐ-ꛄ(ꛐl-ꛄsgh)]=퓚첸에캴듯돉튻훂잰,쇮쒿뇪웳튵S틔쯙싊ꆡꆡ1ꇁꇁ+(1-)ꆤ22ks믱뗃튻뚨뗄웚볤쫕틦,웤훐ks>0.떱ꚤ>0늢ꆡꆡ[(ꇁ)]=쟒럇뎣뷓뷼폚0쪱,S퓚ꚤ웚볤쓚믱뗃뗄웚볤쫕틦ꆡꆡ(췲풪)<gh=(췲풪)캪ksꚤ.죧첸에폀뻃듯늻돉킭틩,퓲퓚컞쿞웚쟩뿶틲듋,쒿뇪웳튵S뗄돶볛캪x1,s=gh=쿂S뗄웚볤쫕틦캪ks/rs,캪놣횤붻틗돉릦,볙짨(췲풪).튲뻍쫇쮵,쮫랽놣쇴볛횵vs뫍vbks/rs<ꛐ.죴늢릺쮫랽퓚뗚t뷗뛎듯돉튻훂,늢릺횮볤뗄닮뛮11764췲풪붫ퟶ죧쿂럖엤:평쒿뇪웳쫕틦럖엤캪(xt,s,ꛐ-xt,s),퓲뻖훐죋B뗄킧폃뿉튵S믱뗃췲풪,쫕릺웳튵B믱뗃틔뇭쪾캪췲풪.헢튻뷡맻쫇쮫랽ퟮ폅첸에닟싔뗄랴펳,늢쟒ub(xt,s,ꛐ-xt,s)=ꛄt-1b(ꛐ-xt,s)(3)쫇튻룶쮫펮뗄햽싔,틲캪죧맻첸에듯늻돉킭틩,퓲뻖훐죋S듓늢릺쫕틦훐믱뗃뗄킧폃뿉틔뇭쎿튻룶웳튵뗄쫕틦뻹캪0.듓뛸뗃떽룃쫕릺첸에쪾캪ퟮ훕뗄붻틗볛룱P캪us(xt,s,ꛐ-xt,s)=ꛄt-1sxt,s(4)P=vs+x1,s=16739+=춬쪱,S퓚첸에웚볤쓚믱뗃뗄웚볤쫕틦뿉틔(췲풪)뇭쪾캪uꇤs=ꇒ(t-1)ꚤksexp(-rsx)dx(5)03ꆡ쒿뇪웳튵뻟폐웚볤쫕틦뗄늢릺첸에쒣탍ퟛ뫏(4)뫍(5)솽쪽,뗃떽S퓚늢릺첸에훐뗄ퟜ킧폃캪Tus=uꇤs+us(xt,s,ꛐ-xt,s)=캪럖컶랽뇣,잰쏦붨솢뗄웳튵늢릺첸에쒣탍볙짨첸에웚볤뇪뗄닺(벴쒿뇪웳튵)늻룸붻틗ꆡꆡꇒ(t-1)ꚤksexp(-rsx)dx+ꛄt-1sxt,s=0쮫랽듸살죎뫎킧폃.헢튻볙짨훷튪쫇믹폚늢릺첸에쮫랽붫믡퓚뺡솿뛌쪱볤쓚듯돉튻훂뗄뾼싇,퓚ꆡꆡks(1-ꛄt-1s)+ꛄt-1sxt,s(6)rs헢훖쟩뿶쿂,폫뷰뛮뻞듳뗄늢릺붻틗쿠뇈,뷏뛌쪱훁듋,놾컄붨솢쇋쒿뇪웳튵뻟폐웚볤쫕틦뗄볤쓚뗄웳튵킧틦뿉틔뫶싔늻볆.떫쫇,헽죧틽퇔훐웳튵늢릺첸에쒣탍.뛔룃쒣탍뗄쟳뷢,놾컄닉폃쯹럖컶,퓚쪵볊뗄웳튵늢릺훐,튻킩늢릺첸에췹췹ꆰ솬탸횧뢶ꆱ(continuationpayoff)뗄룅쓮.쯹캽ꆰ솬튪뷸탐벸룶퓂짵훁벸쓪뗄쪱볤,첸에웚볤뗄쒿뇪탸횧뢶ꆱ,벴횸죧맻쇮튻룶폐웚쿞뚯첬늩?볌탸뷸
뗚1웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ웫낲쳰뗈:믹폚웚볤쫕틦뗄웳튵늢릺첸에쒣탍ꆪ77ꆪ탐,뻖훐죋퓚풭늩?뗄ퟮ훕쪱뿌뗄횧뢶.튲뻍쫇S퓚풭늩?ퟮ훕쪱뿌뗃떽뗄럝뛮,늩?뗄ꆰ솬탸횧쮵,퓚폐쿞웚늩?뗄ퟮ뫳튻룶뷗뛎(폃t뇭쪾),뻖뢶ꆱ캪(g,ꛐ-g).닉폃t=3,듓뛸믹폚웚볤쫕틦훐죋뗄ퟮ훕횧뢶늻퓙쫇(0,0),뛸쫇폃(ꛄt-1sg,뗄늢릺첸에쒣탍뗄늩?뷡릹죧춼2쯹쪾.ꛄt-1b(ꛐ-g))뷸탐쳦뮻,웤훐g뇭쪾죴늩?뷸탐,춼2ꆡ쒿뇪웳튵뻟폐웚볤쫕틦뗄웳튵늢릺첸에쒣탍캪뇣폚뇭쫶,춼2훐,1-ꛄ2s)x1,sꇜꛐ-ꛄb[ꛐks(-rsꛄ-ꛄsgks]s(1-ꛄs)(uꇤs,ubꇤ)=(+ꛄsx2,s,ꛄbx2,br)s틲듋,퓚30쪱뿌S믡돶볛x1,s=ꛐ-ꛄb[ꛐ-ks(1-ꛄ2s)+ꛄ22(uꇥs,ubꇥ)=(sx3,s,ꛄbx3,br)ks(1-ꛄ2s)ssg룃쒣탍훐,퓚뗚3뷗뛎뾪쪼(벴2ꚤ쪱뿌rsꛄ-ꛄs],듓뛸쪵쿖웤ퟮ듳뮯쫕틦,듋쪱),틲2캪쮫랽뻖훐죋쟥돾늩?뗄솬탸횧뢶쫇(g,ꛐ-B뗄쿠펦쫕틦캪ꛄs(1-ꛄb[ꛐks)-ꛄsgrsꛄ-s].g),틲듋,죴쇮B뷓쫜S뗄돶볛x3,s,탨싺ퟣ틲캪듓뗚1뷗뛎뾪쪼뗄늩?폫듓뗚3뷗뛎뾪ꛄ2b(ꛐ-x3,s)ꇝꛄ2b(ꛐ-g)벴x3,sꇜg쪼뗄늩?췪좫쿠춬,S퓚뗚1뷗뛎쓜뗃떽뗄쫕틦튻캪싺ퟣퟔ짭쫕틦ퟮ듳뮯3,S돶볛x3뚨폫웤퓚뗚3뷗뛎틔뫳뗄ퟓ늩?뗃떽뗄쫕틦쿠,s=g,듋쪱(1춬,벴3x-ꛄ21,s=g,틲듋폐s),S뗄쫕틦캪ks(+ꛄ2sgr).s31-ꛄ2s)x퓚뗚1,s=g=ꛐ-ꛄb[ꛐks(-r2뷗뛎뾪쪼sꛄ-ꛄsgs](벴ꚤ쪱뿌),B돶볛x2,s탨싺ퟣ뷢짏쪽뗃ꛄsx2,sꇝks(1-ꛄ2s)+ꛄ2sgr3ks1-ꛄbsxs=+벴rs1-ꛄsꛄb(ꛐks-7)r)(s쫕릺웳튵B뗄쫕틦캪x2ꛄ,sꇝks(1-ꛄ2s)sg3rsꛄ+sxb=ꛐ3ꛄb(1-ꛄs)-xs=1-ꛄsꛄb(ꛐks-8)r)(럱퓲s,S붫뻜뻸B뗄돶볛늢붫늩?뷸탐떽뗚3뷗뛎.틲듋B돶볛3ks(1-ꛄ평짏쏦뗄럖컶,뗃돶쇋쒿뇪웳튵뻟폐웚볤쫕2s)x틦뗄웳튵늢릺첸에쒣탍캨튻뗄ퟓ늩?뺫솶뻹뫢닟2,s=rsꛄ+ꛄsg,웤ퟮs싔,죧쿂쇐뷡싛3쯹쫶.듳뮯쫕틦캪ꛄb[ꛐks(1-ꛄ2s)--ꛄsgrsꛄ.뷡싛3ꆡ퓚춼2쯹쪾뗄쒿뇪웳튵뻟폐웚볤쫕s]퓚뗚틦뗄웳튵늢릺첸에늩?훐,뻖훐죋뗄ퟓ늩?뺫솶1뷗뛎뾪쪼(벴0쪱뿌),S풤닢떽뫳쏦솽룶뷗뛎뗄뷡맻뻹뫢닟싔캪,틲듋쯻믡돶볛x1,s싺ퟣ쒿뇪웳튵3ksS퓚뗚1뷗뛎돶볛xꛐ1,s=+rs-x1,sꇝꛄb[ꛐks(1-ꛄ2s)-rsꛄ-ꛄsgs]1-ꛄb벴1-ꛄsꛄb(ꛐks-r),쫕릺웳튵B붫뷓쫜S뗄돶볛.s
ꆪ78ꆪ맜ꆡ샭ꆡ뿆ꆡ톧ꆡ톧ꆡ놨ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2004쓪2퓂릫쪽(7)뿉틔뇤탎캪쿖폐틩볛샭싛훐맘폚첸에웚볤뇪뗄컯늻룸붻틗쮫3ks1-ꛄbs랽듸살죎뫎킧폃뗄잰쳡볙짨,붫첸에웚볤뗄쒿뇪xs=+=rs1-ꛄsꛄb(ꛐk-r)s웳튵뺭펪쫕틦틔벰맜샭닣뗄룶죋킧폃춨돆캪쒿뇪ꆡꆡ1-ꛄb웳튵뗄ꆰ웚볤쫕틦ꆱ,뛔믹폚웚볤쫕틦뗄웳튵늢릺1-ꛄsꛄꛐꛄb(1-ꛄs)+b1-ꛄsꛄꇁks(9)brs첸에쒣탍뷸탐쇋돵늽뗄퇐뺿.릫쪽(9)뗄뗚1쿮캪늻뾼싇웚볤쫕틦쟩탎쿂퓚훐맺뗄늢릺쪵볹훐,킭틩쫕릺햼뻝쇋훐맺쒿뇪웳튵뗄쫕틦,뗚2쿮캪뾼싇웚볤쫕틦뫳쒿뇪늢릺쫐뎡뗄훷쇷,퇐뺿킭짌첸에쟩탎쿂늢릺붻틗웳튵뗄쫕틦.틲듋,평뷡싛3뿉틔뾴돶,믹폚웚볤볛룱뗄좷뚨뻟폐뫜잿뗄쿖쪵틢틥.놾컄뛔늢릺첸쫕틦뗄늢릺첸에쒣탍뗃돶쇋폫늻뾼싇웚볤쫕틦뗄에붻틗볛룱뗄좷뚨틔벰첸에쮫랽뗄뻹뫢닟싔뷸탐늢릺첸에쒣탍늻춬뗄뷡맻.쯤좻솽헟뚼퓚첸에뗄쇋퇐뺿,튻랽쏦뛔웳튵늢릺첸에쪵볹뻟폐튻뚨뗄뗚1뷗뛎듯돉쇋킭틩,뾼싇쇋웚볤쫕틦뗄쒣탍훐횸떼틢틥,쇭튻랽쏦튲췪짆쇋웳튵늢릺샭싛쳥쾵.웚볤럑폃늢쎻폐쪵볊랢짺,떫평폚웚볤킧폃뗄듦춬쪱,놾컄뛔믹폚웚볤쫕틦뗄늢릺첸에쒣탍뗄퇐퓚퓶볓쇋쒿뇪웳튵뗄쫕틦.뿉볻,웚볤쫕틦뗄듦뺿,뛔쿖쪵쟩탎뷸탐쇋룼볓뫏샭뗄뷼쯆뫍뷢쫍,뻟퓚,퓶볓쇋쒿뇪웳튵맜샭닣뗄쳖볛뮹볛쓜솦,듓뛸폐튻뚨뗄샭싛볛횵뫍쪵볊틢틥.뗃돶쇋뛔쒿뇪웳튵폐샻뗄첸에뷡맻.늻뿉럱죏,놾컄뗄퇐뺿튲듦퓚튻뚨돌뛈뗄늻ퟣ,샽죧뾼싇떽퇐뺿뗄뢴퓓탔뫍뻖쿞탔,놾컄뷶듓4ꆡ뷡쫸폯쪱볤쳹쿖틲ퟓ뗄떥튻뷇뛈퇐뺿늢릺첸에훐붻틗볛룱뗄좷뚨,뛸늢릺붻틗쎽뷩ꆢ죋풱낲훃ꆢ맜샭닣뗄놾컄뷨본늩?싛훐뗄쳖볛뮹볛샭싛,붨솢쇋볈뗃샻틦뗈틲쯘뚼늻뿉뇜쏢뗘뛔첸에뷡맻닺짺펰웳튵늢릺첸에쒣탍,늢닉폃떹쿲맩쓉램뛔쒣탍뷸쿬,틲듋,죧뫎듓뛠캬뷇뛈살퇐뺿웳튵늢릺첸에컊탐쇋쟳뷢,뗃돶쇋늢릺쮫랽뗄ퟓ늩?쓉쪲뻹뫢뷢.쳢,틔벰죧뫎샻폃짱뺭췸싧ꆢ틅닺쯣램ꆢAgent뗈죋늢쟒,뾼싇떽퓚쪵볊뗄웳튵늢릺훐,튻킩늢릺첸에릤훇쓜벼쫵뛔늢릺첸에뷸탐쒣쓢뫍럂헦,뚼폐듽췹췹튪뷸탐벸룶퓂짵훁벸쓪뗄쪱볤,듋쪱,첸에웚폚뷸튻늽뗄퇐뺿.볤뗄쒿뇪웳튵킧틦틑늻쓜뫶싔.틲듋,놾컄췆랭쇋닎뾼컄쿗:\[1\뢥]샗뗂.췾쮹춨.볦늢ꆢ훘ퟩ폫릫쮾뿘훆\[M\].놱뺩:훐맺죋쏱듳톧돶냦짧,ꆪ269.\[2\]GrossmanSJ,,thefre2eriderproblemandthetheoryofthecorporation\[J\].BellJournalofEconomics,1980,11(1):42ꆪ64.\[3\]ShleiferA,\[J\].JournalofPoliticalEconomy,1986,(934):461ꆪ488.\[4\]HirshleiferD,\[J\].JournalofPoliticalEconomy,1990,98(5):295ꆪ324.\[5\]BagnoliM,\[J\].ReviewofFinancialStudies,1988(,11):89ꆪ110.\[6\]JegadeeshN,\[R\].UCLAAndersonGraduateSchoolofManagement,WorkingPaper,1988.\[7\]\[J\].JournalofFinance,1983,(328):331ꆪ343.\[8\]GiammarinoRM,\[J\].JournalofFinance,1986,(431):465ꆪ480.\[9\]\[R\].WorkingPaper,UniversityofMichigan,GraduateSchoolofBusinessAdmini2stration,1987.\[10\B]\[J\].JournalofFinance,1995,5(05):1491ꆪ1515.\[11\]:Thecaseoftheowneꆯrscurse\[J\].ReviewofFinancialStudies,1998,1(14):679ꆪ704.
뗚1웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ웫낲쳰뗈:믹폚웚볤쫕틦뗄웳튵늢릺첸에쒣탍ꆪ79ꆪ\[12\]BulowJ,HuangM,\[J\].JournalofPoliticalEconomy,1999,1(037):427ꆪ454.\[13\]\[J\].TheRandJournalofEconomics,1988,(19):88ꆪ101.\[14\]HirshleiferD,ꆯ\[J\].ReviewofFinancialStudies,1990,2(4):587ꆪ606.\[15\]DanielK,\[R\].WorkingPaper,AndersonGraduateSchoolofManagement,UCLA,1998.\[16\탬]ꆡ랲,돂쿾붣.닺훘ퟩ붻틗볛룱뗄좷뚨\[J\].뺭볃샭싛폫뺭볃맜샭,2001,16(3):22ꆪ25.\[17\샮]뎤쟠,횣ꆡ퇠,돂죙쟯.웳튵늢릺뚨볛닟싔뗄퇐뺿\[J\].쫽솿뺭볃벼쫵뺭볃퇐뺿,2002,26(1):16ꆪ18.\[18\캺]ꆡ붭.믹폚뫋탄쓜솦뗄웳튵릺늢쒣쪽뿲볜퇐뺿\[J\].맜샭뿆톧톧놨,2002,5(2):41ꆪ48.\[19\]\[J\].Econometrica,1950,(118):155ꆪ162.\[20\]\[A\].In:ContributionstotheTheoryofGames\[M\].PrincetonAnnalsofMathematicalStudies,ꆪ67.\[21\]\[J\].Econometrica,1982,(510):97ꆪ109.\[22\]\[M\].StockholmSchoolofEconomics,1972.ꆪ2936.\[23\]KrepsD,\[J\].Econometrica,1982,(540):863ꆪ&AsQ1IAn2tian,.,PostdoctoralR&DBase,Guangzhou510075,China;21TianjinUniversityofFinance&Economics,Tianjin300022,ChinaAbstract:Basedonreviewonnegotiationandbargainingtheory,thispapersetsupabargainingmodelincorporatemergersandacquisitions,,accordingtothepracticethatsomemergernegotiationsneedlongtimetocomplete,thepaperdoesaprimaryprobeonthebar2gainingmodelwiththetargetꆯsincumbentbenefitinM&:mergersandacquisitions;negotiation;bargaining;phaseprofit
