캬웕톶 经뺭볃济理샭论싛与폫经뺭济볃管맜理샭?2?0?0?8?쓪年第뗚4?期웚?东뚫퇇亚믵货币뇒뺺竞争헹性탔均뻹衡뫢与폫人죋民쏱币뇒货믵币뇒锚쎪效킧应펦?돂陈志횾昂낺?(?헣浙붭江릤工짌商듳大톧学뷰金融죚学톧院풺，ꎬ杭몼州훝I?3?1??0?01??8?)? ?[햪摘?튪要]??人죋民쏱币뇒的뗄升짽值횵空뿕间볤，ꎬ取좡决뻶于폚东뚫亚퇇货믵币뇒的뗄集벯体쳥竞뺺争헹性탔均뻹衡뫢。ꆣ东뚫亚퇇货믵币뇒的뗄集벯体쳥升짽值횵，ꎬ?폐有助훺于폚缓뮺뷢解全좫쟲球国맺际볊收쫕支횧失쪧衡뫢，ꎬ提쳡高룟东뚫亚퇇经뺭济볃的뗄福뢣利샻水쮮平욽。ꆣ东뚫亚퇇区쟸域폲已틑经뺭存듦在퓚通춨过맽人죋民쏱币뇒的뗄升짽值횵?带듸뚯动东뚫퇇亚区쟸폲域헻整쳥体升짽횵值的뗄믹基础뒡，ꎬ人죋民쏱币뇒升짽值횵并늢不늻必뇘然좻导떼致훂出돶口뿚竞뺺争헹力솦的뗄下쿂降붵，ꎬ却좴能쓜起웰到떽提쳡高룟区쟸域폲?뢣福利샻水쮮平욽，ꎬ缓뮺解뷢全좫球쟲国맺际볊收쫕支횧失쪧衡뫢的뗄作ퟷ用폃。ꆣ?[?맘关볼键词듊]??东뚫亚퇇;ꎻ货믵币뇒锚쎪;ꎻ最ퟮ优폅货믵币뇒区쟸;ꎻ竞뺺争헹性탔均뻹衡뫢?[?훐中춼图럖分类샠号뫅]?F?8?2?1?.ꎮ 6? ?[컄文쿗献标뇪识쪶码싫]??A [?컄文헂章编뇠号뫅]?1??0?0?0?--5?9?6?X? ?(2?0??08??) 0?4?一튻0?0?0?5?一ꆪ?06?大듳솿量研퇐뺿究表뇭明쏷，ꎬ뛔对发랢达듯国맺家볒而뛸言퇔，ꎬ人죋民쏱币뇒升짽值횵?宏뫪观맛쳵条件볾，ꎬ닠侧훘重于폚듓从랢发듯达国맺家볒角뷇度뛈，ꎬ从듓两솽国맺模쒣型탍出돶?是쫇뻟具有폐劳샍动뚯짺生产닺싊率相쿠对뛔比뇈较뷏优폅势쫆的뗄。ꆣ如죧果맻不늻考뾼虑싇发랢?发랢，ꎬ첽探쳖讨믵货뇒币뫏合ퟷ作뫍和"ꆰ믵货뇒币쎪铺ꆱ"功릦能쓜，ꎬ폫与当떱前잰全좫球쟲?展햹中훐国맺家볒间볤的뗄뺺竞争헹效킧应펦，ꎬ较뷏大듳幅럹度뛈的뗄升짽值횵不늻仅뷶有폐助훺?뺺竞争헹的뗄쫂事쪵实뫍和뚫东亚퇇뺭经济볃튻一体쳥化뮯的뗄程돌度뛈相쿠去좥甚짵远풶。ꆣ本놾?于폚뷢解뻶决좫全球쟲国맺际볊쫕收支횧쪧失뫢衡，ꎬ减복뮺缓产닺业튵结뷡构릹调뗷整헻的뗄速쯙?文컄쫔试듓从뚫东퇇亚랢发햹展中훐国맺볒家뫍和뗘地区쟸퓚在폫与랢发듯达国맺家볒进뷸行탐替쳦代듺?率싊，ꎬ也튲붫将给룸中훐国맺带듸살来巨뻞大듳的뗄福뢣利샻效킧应펦。ꆣ但떫是쫇，ꎬ现쿖实쪵?탔性뺺竞헹争的뗄쫂事쪵实出돶랢发，ꎬ붨建솢立튻一룶个竞뺺争헹博늩弈?쒣模型탍，ꎬ描쏨述쫶东뚫?的뗄맺国볊际럖分릤工쫇是뒫传춳统뛾二풪元经뺭볃济的뗄国맺际볊뮯化，ꎬ랢发展햹中훐国맺家볒?亚퇇믵货币뇒뺺竞헹争뻹均뫢衡믺机훆制뫍和죋人쏱民뇒币ퟷ作캪为"ꆰ믵货币뇒铺쎪"ꆱ的뗄可뿉能쓜?相쿠当떱于폚劳샍动뚯力솦컞无限쿞릩供应펦的뗄传뒫统춳部늿门쏅，ꎬ在퓚中훐低뗍端뛋产닺品욷?탔性，ꎬ늢并퓚在쪵实횤证믹基뒡础짏上，ꎬ에判뛏断죋人民쏱币뇒퓚在쫂事쪵实上짏是쫇否럱具뻟有폐?市쫐뎡场뷸进行탐激벤烈쇒뺺竞争헹。ꆣ同춬时쪱，ꎬ金뷰融죚全좫球쟲化뮯充돤分럖暴놩露슶了쇋?"ꆰ믵货뇒币쎪错ꆱ"릦功쓜能ꎬ，쳡提出돶加볓强잿货믵币뇒合뫏作ퟷ的뗄路슷径뺶和뫍策닟略싔。ꆣ?发랢햹展훐中맺国볒家뗄的뷰金죚融든脆죵弱탔性，ꎬ쪹使웤其늻不뗃得不늻采닉取좡低뗍汇믣?率싊、ꆢ高룟储뒢놸备政헾策닟，ꎬ以틔提쳡供릩金뷰融죚稳컈定뚨的뗄担떣保놣。ꆣ显쿔然좻，ꎬ?튻一、ꆢ"ꆰ믵货뇒币쎪锚?"샭理싛论컄文쿗献폫与뚫东퇇亚经뺭济볃特쳘点뗣?人죋民쏱币뇒升짽횵值幅럹뛈度和뫍좫全球쟲国맺际볊收쫕支횧调뗷节뷚效킧应펦在퓚很뫜大듳程돌?度뛈上짏좡取决뻶于폚发랢햹展中훐国맺家볒，ꎬ特쳘뇰别是쫇中훐国맺和뫍东뚫亚퇇国맺家볒和뫍?ꆰ"믵货뇒币쎪错ꆱ"뿉可럖分캪为췢外늿部쎪铺뫍和쓚内늿部쎪错，ꎬ웤其分럖뇰别对뛔?地뗘区쟸间볤的뗄뺺竞争헹탔性均뻹뫢衡，ꎬ좡取决뻶于폚人죋民쏱币뇒升짽值횵是쫇否럱能쓜带듸?应펦于폚钉뚤住힡(?非럇意틢愿풸性탔)?和뫍联솪合뫏浮뢡动뚯(?协킭议틩性탔)?汇믣率싊?动뚯东뚫亚퇇货믵币뇒的뗄集벯体쳥升짽值횵。ꆣ?훆制度뛈。ꆣ"ꆰ믵货뇒币쎪铺ꆱ"샭理싛论퓚在传뒫统춳上짏是쫇以틔"ꆰ最ퟮ优폅货믵币뇒区쟸"ꆱ?区쟸폲域탔性믵货뇒币뗄的벯集쳥体짽升횵值，ꎬ퓚在뫜很듳大돌程뛈度짏上取좡决뻶于폚?샭理论싛캪为基믹础뒡的뗄，ꎬ并늢经뺭麦싳金뷰农얩和뫍弗뢥莱삳明쏷等뗈人죋的뗄补늹充돤完췪?쟸区폲域内쓚늿部쫇是럱否듦存퓚在ퟅ着믣汇싊率뫏合ퟷ作믺机훆制，ꎬ믲或在퓚区쟸域폲内쓚存듦?짆善，ꎬ탎形成돉了쇋从듓微캢观맛到떽宏뫪观맛，ꎬ从듓经뺭济볃到떽政헾治훎，ꎬ从듓单떥一튻?在퓚튻一훖种"ꆰ믵货뇒币쎪铺ꆱ飞ꎬ能쓜作ퟷ为캪区쟸域폲货믵币뇒稳컈定뚨器웷发랢挥믓作ퟷ?떽到综ퟛ合뫏的뗄分럖析컶框뿲架볜。ꆣ?폃用。ꆣ뒫传춳统뗄的믵货뇒币튻一쳥体뮯化샭理싛论잿强뗷调믵货币뇒合뫏ퟷ作的뗄微캢观맛和뫍?但떫是쫇，ꎬ区쟸域폲内쓚部늿是쫇否럱存듦在퓚"ꆰ货믵币뇒错쎪"ꆱ，ꎬ首쫗先쿈取좡??[쫕收룥稿日죕期웚]??2?0?0?7ꆪ-1?0??一0?3???[믹基뷰金项쿮目쒿]?国맺家볒自ퟔ然좻科뿆学톧基믹金뷰资助훺项쿮目쒿(?7?0?7?7?3?1?0?4?)??[ퟷ作헟者简볲介뷩]?陈돂志횾昂낺?0?9?5?3?-튻-)?，ꎬ쓐男，ꎬ浙헣江붭宁쓾波늨人죋，ꎬ浙헣江붭工릤商짌大듳学톧金뷰融죚学톧院풺院풺长뎤，ꎬ教뷌授쫚。ꆣ?感룐谢킻匿쓤名쏻움评审짳人죋提쳡出돶的뗄意틢见볻，ꎬ笔뇊者헟已틑作ퟷ了쇋相쿠应펦的뗄修탞改룄，ꎬ本놾文컄文컄责퓰自ퟔ负뢺。ꆣ?5
캬웕톶 뺭经济볃理샭论싛与폫经뺭济볃管맜理샭?2?00?8?年쓪第뗚?4期웚?决뻶于폚国맺际볊经뺭济볃的뗄竞뺺争헹环뮷境뺳，ꎬ而뛸不늻是쫇政헾府뢮合뫏作ퟷ。ꆣ麦싳金뷰?条쳵件볾的뗄。ꆣ뛸而듓从샺历쪷史뗄的뺭经퇩验看뾴，ꎬ튲也좷确쪵实늻不存듦퓚在一튻种훖发랢?얩农强잿뗷调，ꎬ最ퟮ优폅货믵币뇒区쟸理샭论싛不늻涉짦及벰政헾府뢮间볤合뫏作ퟷ，ꎬ以틔及벰?햹展中훐国맺家볒货믵币뇒充돤当떱区쟸域폲"ꆰ货믵币뇒锚쎪"ꆱ的뗄事쫂实쪵。ꆣ因틲而뛸，ꎬ?哪쓄一튻国맺政헾뢮府负뢺责퓰确좷定뚨汇믣率싊等뗈问컊题쳢。ꆣ选톡择퓱一튻国맺货믵币뇒作ퟷ?틔以뒫传춳统샭理싛论쒣模탍型뫍和뺭经퇩验럖分컶析죋人民쏱뇒币쫇是럱否能쓜돤充当떱区쟸域폲?캪为主훷导떼性탔核뫋心탄货믵币뇒，ꎬ是쫇经뺭济볃理샭性탔选톡择퓱，ꎬ很뫜大듳程돌度뛈上짏?"ꆰ믵货뇒币쎪锚ꆱꎬ"뇘必좻然믡会뗃得떽到럱否뚨定的뗄回믘答듰。ꆣ但떫是쫇，ꎬ在퓚经뺭济볃?뿉可以틔解뷢决뻶汇믣率싊决뻶定뚨中훐潜잱在퓚的뗄政헾府뢮间볤冲돥突춻问컊题쳢。ꆣ最ퟮ优폅?和뫍뷰金죚融좫全쟲球뮯化늻不뛏断拓췘햹展和뫍짮深化뮯的뗄条쳵件볾下쿂，ꎬ在퓚发랢展햹中훐?货믵币뇒区쟸中훐的뗄其웤他쯻国맺家볒将붫本놾币뇒钉뚤住힡核뫋心탄货믵币뇒，ꎬ或믲以틔之횮?맺国볒家뗄的듳大맺国좫全쏦面뻭卷죫入좫全쟲球뮯化맽过돌程，ꎬ쏀美国맺폫与东뚫亚퇇国맺家볒?캪为믹基ힼ准좷确뚨定믣汇싊率，ꎬ뻍就컞无탨需횱直뷓接调뗷헻整웤其他쯻的뗄双쮫边뇟汇믣?뫍和뗘地쟸区횮之间볤뗄的国맺볊际收쫕횧支出돶쿖现严퇏훘重不늻平욽衡뫢，ꎬ金뷰融죚全좫球쟲?率싊。ꆣ麦싳金뷰农얩根룹据뻝?20?쫀世纪볍?7?0ꆪ-9?0?年쓪代듺欧얷洲훞汇믣率싊机믺制훆?化뮯冲돥믷击랢发햹展훐中맺国볒家ꎬ"ꆰ东뚫亚퇇金뷰融죚危캣机믺"ꆱ正헽从듓反랴面쏦提쳡高룟?以틔십马뿋克캪为"ꆰ쓚内늿部쎪锚ꆱ"뗄的뺭经퇩验，ꎬ죏认캪为튪要成돉为캪核뫋心탄货믵?区쟸폲域뺭经볃济뫍和쟸区폲域믵货뇒币뫏合ퟷ作틢意풸愿쪱时，ꎬ컒我쏇们有폐必뇘要튪重훘新탂?币뇒，ꎬ需탨튪要满싺足ퟣ三죽个룶条쳵件볾:ꎺ首쫗先쿈，ꎬ经뺭济볃规맦模쒣巨뻞大듳，ꎬ发랢?审짳视쫓人죋民쏱币뇒作ퟷ为캪区쟸域폲"ꆰ货믵币뇒锚쎪"ꆱ的뗄条쳵件볾和뫍可뿉能쓜性탔。ꆣ?展햹잿强劲뺢，ꎬ能쓜容죝忍죌其웤他쯻国맺家볒慎짷重훘地뗘、ꆢ常뎣常뎣是쫇不늻经뺭意틢地뗘?将붫놾本币뇒钉뚤住힡马십克뿋，ꎬ而뛸不늻采닉取좡报놨复뢴行탐动뚯。ꆣ其웤次듎，ꎬ德뗂国맺?二뛾、ꆢ东뚫亚퇇货믵币뇒竞뺺争헹性탔均뻹衡뫢的뗄博늩弈?分럖析컶?政헾뢮府不늻设짨뚨定汇믣싊率目쒿标뇪，ꎬ可뿉以틔实쪵行탐独뛀立솢的뗄国맺内쓚货믵币뇒政헾?策닟，ꎬ컈稳定뚨马십克뿋对뛔实쪵际볊商짌品욷和뫍服럾务컱的뗄购릺买싲力솦。ꆣ这헢样퇹，ꎬ?笔뇊헟者죏认캪为，ꎬ튻一种훖货믵币뇒是쫇否럱能쓜成돉为캪"ꆰ货믵币뇒锚쎪"ꆱꎬ?其웤他쯻欧얷洲훞国맺家볒可뿉以틔把냑马십克뿋作ퟷ为캪稳컈定뚨价볛格룱水쮮平욽的뗄名쏻义틥?쫗首先쿈是쫇货믵币뇒竞뺺争헹均뻹衡뫢，ꎬ而뛸不늻是쫇政헾府뢮间볤协킭议틩的뗄结뷡果맻。ꆣ?쎪锚。ꆣ最ퟮ后뫳，ꎬ到떽?20?쫀世纪볍?70?年쓪듺代初돵，ꎬ德뗂国맺取좡消쿻了쇋资本놾?发랢展햹中훐国맺家볒的뗄汇믣率싊政헾策닟，ꎬ很뫜大듳程돌度뛈上짏取좡决뻶于폚发랢展햹中훐?맜管制훆，ꎬ而뛸其웤他쯻大듳多뛠数쫽欧얷洲훞国맺家볒直횱到떽?2?0쫀世纪볍8?0?年쓪代듺?国맺볒家퓚在랢发듯达国맺볒家进뷸口뿚市쫐뎡场中훐的뗄替쳦代듺性탔竞뺺争헹。ꆣ在퓚当떱前잰?末쒩还뮹做ퟶ不늻到떽。ꆣ其웤他쯻欧얷洲훞国맺家볒可뿉以틔放럅心탄大듳胆떨地뗘将붫部늿分럖?좫全球쟲贸쎳易틗뷡结构릹中훐，ꎬ탂新탋兴国맺볒家的뗄贸쎳易틗份럝额뛮仅뷶为캪?3?8?%，ꎬ?储뒢놸备投춶资于폚国맺际볊流쇷动뚯性탔高룟的뗄马십克뿋资产닺，ꎬ促듙进뷸本놾币뇒对뛔?퓚在发랢듯达国맺家볒的뗄进뷸口뿚市쫐场뎡中훐，ꎬ面쏦临쇙的뗄是쫇一튻条쳵需탨求쟳弹떯性탔?십马克뿋汇믣率的싊稳뗄定컈。뚨[1ꆣ?]뷏较低뗍的뗄需탨求쟳曲쟺线쿟，ꎬ和뫍由평"ꆰ国맺际볊劳샍动뚯力솦无컞限쿞供릩应펦"ꆱ决뻶?对뛔믵货뇒币쎪锚的뗄条쳵件볾，ꎬ伯늮格룱斯쮹滕(?B?e?r?g?s?t??en?)?认죏?定뚨的뗄高룟弹떯性탔供릩应펦曲쟺线쿟(?见볻图춼1?)?ꆣ。내按뺭经뗤典的뗄微캢观맛经뺭?为캪，ꎬ一튻훖种믵货뇒币냧扮퇝演国맺볊际믵货뇒币的뗄뷇角色즫需탨要튪具뻟备놸五컥个룶关맘?볃济理샭论싛，ꎬ这헢퇹样的뗄市쫐场뎡结뷡构릹将붫导떼致훂"ꆰ囚쟴徒춽困삧境뺳"ꆱ式쪽的뗄?键볼因틲素쯘zꎺ잱潜在퓚的뗄经뺭济볃和뫍国맺际볊贸쎳易틗规맦模쒣;ꎻ不늻受쫜外췢部늿限쿞?博늩弈?结뷡果맻。ꆣ争헹相쿠贬뇡值횵，ꎬ汇믣率싊低뗍估맀，ꎬ就뻍是쫇这헢一튻竞뺺争헹均뻹?制훆的뗄经뺭济볃独뛀立솢'탔性ꎻ;쎻没폐有췢外믣汇맜管훆制ꎻ;룃该맺国资놾本쫐市场뎡的뗄?衡뫢的뗄表뇭现쿖方랽式쪽。ꆣ价볛格룱的뗄下쿂降붵(?贬뇡值횵，ꎬ从듓?P?떽到?Pꎺ)?ꎬ,? 12广맣度뛈、ꆢ짮深뛈度뫍和쇷流뚯动탔性;ꎻ룃该맺国的뗄뺭经济볃实쪵力솦、ꆢ稳컈定뚨性탔和뫍?虽쯤然좻可뿉以틔增퓶加볓出돶口뿚数쫽量솿，ꎬ但떫却좴导떼致훂出돶口뿚金뷰额뛮下쿂降붵，ꎬ?国맺际볊地뗘位캻。ꆣ[?2J?李샮晓쿾、ꆢ丁뚡一튻兵뇸则퓲从듓区쟸域폲货믵币뇒角뷇度뛈出돶发랢，ꎬ?导떼致훂供릩应펦方랽总ퟜ体쳥福뢣利샻损쯰失쪧。ꆣ"ꆰ뺺竞헹争탔性뇡贬횵值"ꆱ是쫇以틔新탂?뷡结合뫏뚫东퇇亚쟸区폲域뗄的쪵实际볊쟩情况뿶，ꎬ쳡提出돶一튻훖种货믵币뇒成돉为캪区쟸域폲?兴탋国맺家볒的뗄뢣福利샻损쯰失쪧和뫍对뛔发랢达듯国맺家볒产닺业튵替쳦代듺加볓快뿬(?数쫽?탔性关맘键볼货믵币뇒至훁少짙应펦具뻟备놸的뗄五컥个룶条쳵件볾ꎺz一튻是쫇经뺭济볃规맦模쒣、ꆢ?量솿效킧应펦〉?为캪结뷡果맻的뗄。ꆣ?뺭经볃济增퓶长뎤稳컈定뚨性탔及벰为캪周훜边뇟地뗘区쟸提쳡供릩出돶口뿚市쫐场뎡的뗄能쓜力솦;ꎻ?뛾쫇튻맺뗄뺭볃뾪럅돌뛈ꎻ죽쫇튻맺믵뇒퓚쟸폲쓚?P? ?二是一国的经济开放程度;三是一国货币在区域内被놻뷓接受쫜的뗄돌程뛈度，ꎬ벴即区쟸폲域内쓚뺭经济볃쳥体在퓚国맺内쓚、ꆢ国맺际볊交붻流쇷?훐中쪹使폃用룃该맺国믵货币뇒的뗄程돌度뛈与폫范랶围캧pꎻ쯄四쫇是一튻国맺政헾府뢮货믵币뇒?뷰죚헾닟뗄맺볊릫탅솦벰춬놾뗘쟸웤쯻돉풱뗄헾닟??P\? 金融政策的国际公信力及同本地区其他成员的政策킭协调뗷쓜能솦力;ꎻ컥五쫇是튻一国맺货믵币뇒所쯹面쏦临쇙的뗄内쓚外췢制훆度뛈环뮷境뺳。ꆣ?1?毛?并늢从듓헢这킩些뇪标ힼ准돶出랢发뛔对뚫东퇇亚区쟸폲域的뗄各룷国맺货믵币뇒进뷸行탐考뾼?察달，ꎬ认죏为캪东뚫亚퇇区쟸域폲缺좱乏랦一튻个룶行탐之횮有폐效킧的뗄货믵币뇒错쎪。ꆣ?[3J?뾼달틔짏샭싛컄쿗뿉틔랢쿖ꎬ쯤좻헢킩샭싛붨?o?? Q?? 考察以上理论文献可以发现，虽然这些理论建솢쇋믵뇒튻쳥뮯뗄럖컶뿲볜ꎬ쳡돶쇋튻맺믵뇒돉캪?固춼1?랢发展햹中훐国맺家볒在퓚发랢达듯国맺家볒进뷸口뿚市쫐场뎡中훐的뗄竞뺺争헹结뷡构릹?立了货币一体化的分析框架，提出了一国货币成为믵뇒쎪뗄믹놾쳵볾ꎬ떫웤퇐뺿뻹쫇틔랢듯뺭볃캪뇪?发랢햹展中훐国맺家볒货믵币뇒竞뺺争헹均뻹衡뫢的뗄第뗚二뛾种훖形탎式쪽可뿉称돆为货币锚的基本条件，但其研究均是以发达经济为标캪?ힼꎬ틔튻냣솽맺뺭볃캪쒣놾ꎬ틔맺볒볤췪좫뺺헹캪?릩供应펦方랽的뗄맑寡头춷竞뺺争헹均뻹衡뫢。ꆣ当떱发랢展햹中훐国맺家볒的뗄大듳国맺卷뻭入准，以一般两国经济为模本，以国家间完全竞争为죋?
캬웕톶 뺭经볃济샭理싛论与폫经뺭济볃管맜理샭?2?0?08?쓪年第뗚?4웚期?좫全쟲球뺺竞헹争，ꎬ퓚在区쟸域폲内쓚既볈存듦在퓚一튻定뚨的뗄大듳国맺竞뺺争헹优폅势쫆，ꎬ?퓚在汇믣率싊上짏保놣持돖竞뺺争헹性탔均뻹衡뫢的뗄倾쟣向쿲。??[5?J쇹六쫇是쏀美国맺持돖续탸?폖又뻟具폐有뮥互늹补탔性的뗄内쓚늿部经뺭볃济联솪系쾵时쪱，ꎬ只횻要튪这헢一튻货믵币뇒币뇒?뗄的맺国볊际쫕收횧支쓦逆닮差뫍和贬뇡횵值趋쟷쫆势已틑쪹使持돖有폐美쏀풪元的뗄风럧险쿕增퓶?值횵컈稳뚨定，ꎬ웤其쯻他쟸区쓚内믵货뇒币뻍就폐有可뿉能쓜将붫其웤作ퟷ为캪"ꆰ货믵币뇒?듳大，ꎬ뛸而鉴본폚于"ꆰ뚫东南쓏亚퇇金뷰融죚危캣机믺"ꆱ的뗄经뺭验퇩和뫍中훐国맺的뗄负뢺?쎪锚ꆱ"ꎬ，뇜避쏢免뺺竞헹争탔性뇡贬횵值ꆣ。뻟具폐有뺺竞헹争폅优쫆势뗄的듳大国맺쫇是릩供펦应?퓰责죎任的뗄表뇭쿖现，ꎬ죋人民쏱币뇒已틑믱获得뗃信탅任죎。ꆣ这헢相쿠当떱于폚在퓚斯쮹坦첹?方랽的뗄쇬领떼导헟者믲或뚨定볛价헟者ꎬ，뛸而웤其쯻他랢发햹展中훐国맺볒家퓲则是쫇跟룺随쯦?뿋克뛻尔늮伯룱格뻹均뫢衡훐中ꎬ，쫐市뎡场쇬领导떼者헟的뗄行탐为캪信탅息쾢是쫇确좷定뚨?헟者，ꎬ믲或쫽数솿量쫊适펦应헟者ꆣ。헢这훖种릩供펦应랽方맑寡춷头쫐市뎡场뷡结构릹的뗄形탎?的뗄，ꎬ룺跟쯦随헟者뿉可룹根뻝据自ퟔ己벺的뗄쟩情况뿶톡选择퓱对뛔策닟，ꎬ人죋民쏱币뇒就뻍?돉成，ꎬ폐有훺助폚于욽平뫢衡릩供쟳求횮之볤间뗄的솦力솿量对뛔比뇈，ꎬ복减少짙发랢展햹中훐?뿉可以틔成돉为캪隐틾性탔"内ꆰ쓚部늿锚쎪"。ꆱꆣ?国맺볒家뺺竞헹争탔性뇡贬횵值뗄的뢣福샻利쯰损쪧失ꆣ。헢这쪱时，ꎬ쯤虽좻然出돶口뿚量솿减복?짙ꎬ떫뷰뛮랴뛸퓶볓ꎬ뢣샻쳡룟ꆣ죧맻듦퓚헢퇹뗄?죽ꆢ맘关于폚人죋民쏱币뇒汇믣率싊货믵币뇒锚쎪?少，但金额反而增加，福利提高。如果存在这样的-、믺机훆制，ꎬ벴即쪹使뚫东퇇亚맺国볒家뫍和뗘地쟸区볤间뮹还쓑难以틔탎形돉成맙官方랽的뗄汇믣?效킧应펦的뗄实쪵证횤研퇐究뺿?率싊뫏合ퟷ作낲安업排ꎬ，죋人쏱民뇒币틀依좻然폐有뿉可쓜能돉成캪为뚫东퇇亚国맺家볒和뫍地뗘?쟸믵뇒뗄ꆰ쓚늿쎪ꆱꎬ죋쏱뇒짽횵뻍쓜퓚늻쯰몦놾?根룹据뻝上짏述쫶理샭论싛模쒣型탍，ꎬ笔뇊者헟试쫔图춼通춨过맽实쪵证횤检볬验퇩，ꎬ?区货币的"内部驻锚"，人民币升值就能在不损害本맺뺺헹솦뗄잰쳡쿂ꎬ쳡룟뚫퇇뺭볃뗄ퟜ쳥뢣샻쮮욽ꎬ?考뾼달察뚫东퇇亚뺭经볃济쳥体믵货뇒币폫与죋人民쏱币뇒之횮间볤是쫇否럱存듦在퓚钉뚤住힡?国竞争力的前提下，提高东亚经济的总体福利水平，복뮺랢듯맺볒닺튵뷡릹뗷헻뗄쯙싊ꎬ뗷뷚좫쟲맺볊?关맘系쾵。ꆣ?减缓发达国家产业结构调整的速率，调节全球国际쫕횧늻욽뫢ꆣ??(튻-?)쒣模탍型릹构建붨?收支不平衡。컒쏇죏캪ꎬ떱잰뚫퇇뺭볃뫍뷰죚뗄랢햹틑돊쿖?캪为考뾼察달东뚫亚퇇各룷经뺭济볃体쳥的뗄汇믣率싊安낲排업以틔及벰主훷要튪国맺际볊?我们认为，当前东亚经济和金融的发展已呈现죋쏱뇒돤떱ꆰ믵뇒쎪ꆱ뗄쳵볾ꎺ튻쫇뚫퇇뗄쓚늿쎳?货믵币뇒及벰人죋民쏱币뇒在퓚其웤货믵币뇒篮삺子ퟓ中훐的뗄地뗘位캻，ꎬ可뿉以틔使쪹用폃回믘?人民币充当"货币锚"的条件:一是东亚的内部贸틗볓짮ꆣ샮쿾ꆢ뚡튻뇸뛔뚫퇇룷뺭볃쳥횮볤뗄쎳틗?归맩럖分析컶的뗄方랽램法来살测닢算쯣各룷种훖钉뚤住힡货믵币뇒的뗄权좨重훘，ꎬ运퓋用폃弗뢥?易加深。李晓、丁一兵对东亚各经济体之间的贸易잿뛈횸쫽ퟷ쇋닢쯣ꎬ뷡맻쿔쪾ꎺ뚫퇇ퟷ캪튻룶헻?兰삼克뿋尔뛻与폫魏캺尚짐进뷸的뗄模쒣型탍?[6J?。ꆣ룃该쒣模型탍为캪zꎺ?强度指数作了测算，结果显示:东亚作为一个整쳥ꎬ웤쓚늿쮫뇟쎳틗잿뛈늻뷶늻톷폚ꆢ짵훁뮹룟폚???ꆪe严SF=α??1?+α?2?e严?F?+α??3e;SF+??α4?e俨F?+??u,? ?(1??) ?体，其内部双边贸易强度不仅不逊于、甚至还高于틑뺭붨솢떥튻믵뇒쟸뗄얷훞ꆣ뛸쟒ꎬ훐맺ퟷ캪튻룶?式쪽中훐，ꎬ떥单캻位瑞죰士쪿法램郎색?(?SF?)?作ퟷ为캪测닢算쯣除돽日죕本놾外췢其웤?已经建立单一货币区的欧洲。而且，中国作为一个듳맺ꎬ웰떽쇋닺튵뮻뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ탎돉뛔쟸쓚쎳틗쓦?他쯻东뚫亚퇇国맺家볒和뫍地뗘区쟸汇믣率싊变뇤动뚯的뗄计볆价볛标뇪准ힼ，ꎬ这헢些킩波늨动뚯?大国，起到了产业转换的作用，形成对区内贸易逆닮ꎬ뛔쟸췢쎳틗쮳닮뗄쎳틗룱뻖ꎬ폐샻폚췆뚯쟸폲?可뿉以틔듓从훷主튪要믵货뇒币뛔对죰瑞쪿士램法郎색的뗄汇믣率싊变뇤动뚯中훐体쳥现쿖出돶?差，对区外贸易顺差的贸易格局，有利于推动区域뺭볃뗄랢햹ꆣ??뛾쫇뚫퇇뗘쟸탎돉쇋틔???쟽뚯뗄?살来，ꎬ等뗈式쪽右폒边뇟选톡取좡了쇋美쏀元풪、ꆢ日죕元풪与폫德뗂国맺马십克뿋?3훖种主훷?经济的发展。由二是东亚地区形成了以FDI驱动的要货币作为回归变量。区쟸폲域닺产튵业톭循뮷环机믺훆制和뫍自ퟔ日죕놾本进뷸口뿚机믺械킵设짨备놸、ꆢ向쿲美쏀国맺?튪믵뇒ퟷ캪믘맩뇤솿ꆣ?돶뿚훆퓬욷뗄ꆰ죽뷇쎳틗ꆱ쒣쪽??ꎬ뛸죕쏀믣싊뗄?由평폚于뾼考달察的뗄是쫇믣汇率싊的뗄变뇤动뚯状ힴ况뿶，ꎬ因틲此듋使쪹用폃名쏻义出口制造品的"三角贸易"模式凶，而日美汇率的틥?뻧쇒늨뚯펰쿬떽뚫퇇뺭볃쳥뗄돶뿚뫍???쇷죋ꎬ?汇믣率싊对뛔数쫽的뗄一튻阶뷗差닮分럖序탲列쇐来살构릹造퓬变뇤动뚯率싊模쒣型탍，ꎬ可뿉建붨?剧烈波动影响到东亚经济体的出口和FDI流人，볓뻧쇋룃뗘쟸뺭볃늿쏅뗄늻컈뚨ꎬ돉캪ퟨ낭뺭볃뎤?立솢如죧下쿂回믘归맩方랽程돌:ꎺ?加剧了该地区经济部门的不稳定，成为阻碍经济长웚컈뚨랢햹뗄훘튪틲쯘ꎬ웈쟐탨튪믣싊뗄쿠뛔컈?ꇷ??ꎺ?????ꇷ?????ꇷ????? S;:SF =α1+α2 SPSF +α3 S{SF 期稳定发展的重要因素，迫切需要汇率的相对稳뚨ꆣ죽쫇뚫퇇뗄킡맺뺭볃쏦쇙믣싊훆뛈톡퓱뗄삧????????????ꇷ??F ????????+α4 SySF +α5 S:S+u, (2) 定。三是东亚的小国经济面临汇率制度选择的困境뺳，ꎬ钉뚤힡住美쏀풪元的뗄汇믣率싊制훆度뛈实쪵际볊上짏使쪹各룷经뺭济볃体쳥的뗄货믵币뇒?式쪽中훐，ꎬS?F?为캪瑞죰士쪿法램郎색ꎻE?指횸东뚫亚퇇某쒳国맺货믵币뇒ꎻ?D指횸?政헾策닟즥丧쪧失쇋了自ퟔ훷主좨权폫与独뛀立솢性탔，ꎬ成돉为캪投춶机믺冲돥击믷的뗄目쒿?美쏀풪元ꎻ]ꎮꎬ为캪日죕元풪ꎻu?为캪欧얷元풪ꎻR?是쫇人죋民쏱币뇒。ꆣ这헢样퇹，ꎬ?标뇪，ꎬ뛸而톡选퓱择뢡浮뚯动믣汇싊率훆制뛈度폖又믡会탎形成돉实쪵际볊汇믣率싊的뗄波늨?回믘맩归的뗄结뷡果맻붫将测닢算쯣东뚫亚퇇国맺家볒和뫍地뗘区쟸货믵币뇒针헫对뛔美쏀元풪、ꆢ?动뚯，ꎬ偏욫샫离区쟸폲域的뗄뺺竞争헹均뻹衡뫢。ꆣ四쯄是쫇中훐国맺作ퟷ为캪发랢展햹中훐国맺?日죕풪元、ꆢ欧얷元풪与폫人죋民쏱币뇒的뗄钉뚤住힡情쟩况뿶。ꆣ饨?，?ꎬ句?，ꆣꎬα?4?，ꎬ的??家볒的뗄大듳国맺，ꎬ既볈为캪东뚫亚퇇其웤他쯻国맺家볒提쳡供릩了쇋市쫐场뎡，ꎬ也튲形탎成돉?分럖别뇰代듺表뇭对뛔4?种훖货믵币뇒的뗄钉뚤住힡权좨重훘。ꆣ?了쇋늻不对뛔돆称的뗄뺺竞争헹톹压力솦，ꎬ表뇭现쿖为캪中훐国맺劳샍动뚯生짺产닺率싊提쳡高룟?{?뛾二?}쫽数뻝据뫍和变뇤量솿?速쯙度뛈快뿬，ꎬ受쫜汇믣率싊等뗈外췢部늿冲돥击믷相쿠对뛔较뷏小킡，ꎬ区쟸域폲内쓚竞뺺争헹?人죋民쏱币뇒自ퟔ2?0?0?5?年쓪7?月퓂2?1?日죕뾪开쪼始采닉用폃更룼灵쇩活믮的뗄?压톹力솦系쾵数쫽较뷏其웤他쯻东뚫亚퇇国맺家볒和뫍地뗘区쟸低뗍。ꆣ五컥是쫇笔뇊者헟的뗄研퇐?汇믣率싊탎形돉成훆制뛈度，ꎬ因틲而뛸뾼考察달뚫东亚퇇国맺家볒和뫍地뗘区쟸在퓚名쏻义틥汇믣?究뺿已틑经뺭证횤明쏷，ꎬ东뚫南쓏亚퇇金뷰融죚危캣机믺后뫳，ꎬ按내相쿠对뛔购릺买싲力솦平욽?率싊上짏对뛔人죋民쏱币뇒的뗄钉뚤住힡状ힴ况뿶要튪从듓2?0?0?5?年쓪开뾪始쪼。ꆣ笔뇊者헟选톡?价볛，ꎬ东뚫亚퇇货믵币뇒对뛔美쏀元풪的뗄低뗍估맀程돌度뛈趋쟷向쿲一튻致훂，ꎬ已틑出돶现쿖?取좡了쇋港룛元풪(??HK?D?)?、ꆢ菲럆律싉宾뇶比뇈索쯷(??PH?P?)?、ꆢ新탂加볓坡웂???7
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캬웕톶 뺭经济볃理샭论싛与폫经뺭济볃管맜理샭??20?0?8?年쓪第뗚4?期웚?检볬퇩验。ꆣ回믘归맩方랽程돌共릲?1?0个룶变뇤量솿，ꎬ?4? ?1?50?룶个数쫽据뻝，ꎬ查닩表뇭?再퓙对뛔쒣模型탍맀估볆计残닐差닮序탲列쇐进뷸行탐?AD?F?볬检验퇩，ꎬ检볬验퇩?可뿉知횪，ꎬ各룷统춳计볆量솿均뻹通춨过맽检볬验퇩。ꆣ?结뷡果맻见볻表뇭2?。ꆣ?뇭??残닐差닮序탲J1쇐JA?D?F?볬检验퇩结뷡果맻??뇤솿?检볬验퇩模쒣型탍(??C，ꎬT?,ꎬ K?)? I ?AD?F?值횵?1??0?%临쇙界뷧值횵?5??%临쇙뷧界值횵?1?%쇙临界뷧值횵????????(?c?ꎬ, ?tꎬ, ?0)?? 튻-2?9?.ꎮ5?6?6??8?2? ?**?赞??一튻?3.ꎮ9?8?0??5?9?9?? -ꆪ3?.4ꎮ?2?0?8??2?1?? ꆪ-3?.ꎮ1?3?3?? ?12?9?? 由평폚于춳统볆计计볆量솿值횵一튻?29?.ꎮ5?6?6?? 8?2?킡小于폚显쿔著훸性탔水쮮平욽?形탎序탲列쇐，ꎬ可뿉以틔进뷸行탐协킭整헻分럖析컶。ꆣ?0?.ꎮ0?1?时쪱的뗄临쇙界뷧量솿-튻3?.ꎮ9?8?8???05?9?? 9?ꎬ，틲因듋此뿉可认죏为캪估맀计볆?(?쯄四?}뚫东퇇亚믣汇싊率뚤钉힡住쟩情뿶况믘回맩归랽方程돌估맀计볆?残닐差닮序탲列쇐?E为캪平욽稳컈序탲列쇐，ꎬ表뇭明쏷变뇤量솿之횮间볤存듦在퓚着ퟅ协킭整헻?经뺭맽过前잰面쏦的뗄检볬验퇩，ꎬ各룷变뇤量솿的뗄序탲列쇐之횮间볤存듦在퓚着ퟅ协킭?关맘쾵系ꎬ，틲因뛸而웤其쿟线탎形ퟩ组뫏合뇭表쪾示了쇋一튻种훖长뎤期웚的뗄均뻹衡뫢?整헻맘关쾵系，ꎬ뷢解쫍释뇤变量솿能쓜解뷢释쫍被놻解뷢释쫍变뇤量솿。ꆣ下쿂面쏦将붫以틔?关맘系쾵。ꆣ?U?S?D?,ꎬ ?] ?P?Y,ꎬ E?U??R,ꎬ ?RM??Bꎬ, M?Y?R?ퟷ作为캪解뷢释쫍变뇤量솿?经뺭맽过一튻阶뷗差닮럖分，ꎬ뇊笔者헟뛔对每쎿룶个变뇤솿量的뗄数쫽据뻝序탲列쇐进뷸?分럖别뇰对뛔H?K?D?ꎬ，?P?HP?,ꎬ T?H?B?ꎬ, S??G?D做ퟶ回믘归맩，ꎬ为캪了쇋?行탐쮮水平욽形탎式쪽的뗄检볬验퇩，ꎬ其웤中훐检볬验퇩过맽程돌中훐的뗄滞훍后뫳期웚的뗄确좷?控뿘훆制틬异方랽差닮性탔，ꎬ本놾文컄用폃?WL?S?进뷸行탐估맀计볆，ꎬ并늢用폃?定뚨采닉用폃A?I?C?最ퟮ小킡准ힼ则퓲，ꎬ以틔保놣证횤残닐差닮值횵非럇自ퟔ相쿠关맘性탔。ꆣ?W?h?it?e?方랽램法进뷸行탐检볬验퇩。ꆣ룷各东뚫亚퇇货믵币뇒的뗄估맀计볆结뷡果맻见볻?检볬퇩验뷡结果맻表뇭明쏷两솽个룶频욵度뛈的뗄一튻阶뷗差닮分럖数쫽据뻝都뚼是쫇一튻阶뷗整헻?表뇭3?。ꆣ?表뇭3??东뚫亚퇇各룷国맺汇믣率싊钉뚤佳힡主훷要튪货믵币뇒的뗄回믘归맩结뷡果맻(??2?00??5年쓪7?月퓂2?1?日죕-튻2?0?0?7?年쓪3?月퓂6?日죕}?变뇤量솿?α1? (?c?)? α2? (?U??SD?)? ?的ꆣC??J?P?Y)α•? ?(?Er?反?)??α5 (??R?M?B)? ?R?-s??q?u?a?r?e?d ?T?H?B? ?-튻3?.4ꎮ?7?5?? 3??12?? 튻一?o.ꎮ?57?0?? 6?8?9?? 一튻?0.ꎮ4?3?6???25?6?? 0?ꎮ.8?9?7?? ?60?6?? 1?.ꎮ 1?8?7?? 1??83?? ?0.ꎮ8?3?3?? 3?4?8?? (?0?.ꎮ0?7?4?? 3?3?2??铃)?(?0?.ꎮ0?1?3?? ?7?95?铃??赞赞?)??(?0?ꎮ.0?1?4?? ?49?4?铃?赞??赞)???(0?ꎮ.0?2?4?? 6?1?4??铃铃?)??(??0.ꎮ0?1?7?? 9??97?铃??赞赞?)?H?K?D? ?-튻2?.2ꎮ?4?8?2??7?3?? 1?.ꎮ ????????튻?ꎮ????????튻?ꎮ????????튻?ꎮ?????????ꎮ????????084 671 一 一 一 394 (?0?.ꎮ0?1?0?? 8?2?0??铃)??(?0?.ꎮ0?0?3?? ?5?49?赞??赞赞?)??(?0?ꎮ.0?0?0?? ?54?9?赞?赞??赞)??(?0?.ꎮ0?0?2?? ?15?9?赞??赞?赞)??(??0.ꎮ0?0?3?? 7??28?赞??赞赞?)??PH?P?? -튻4?.6ꎮ?5?3?? 4?0?0?? 0?ꎮ.0?6?3?? ?31?4?? 一튻?0.ꎮ?06?7??8??69?? 0?ꎮ.5?8?5?? ?99?6? ?1?.ꎮ ?28?2?? 6?6?5?? 0?.ꎮ8?1?5?? 6?8?5?? (?0?ꎮ.2?1?1?? ?60??4?)? ?(0?ꎮ.0?5?8?? ?79?5??铃)???(0?ꎮ.0?2?7?? 6?9?1??铃铃?)???(0?.ꎮ ?05?8?? 0?2?3??铃)??(0?ꎮ.0?5?9?? ?78?1?铃?)??S?G?D? ?一ꆪ1?.ꎮ?61?4?? 6?8?0?? ?0ꎮ.3?8?7?? ?13?4?? 一튻?0.ꎮ2?5?9??5??55?? 0?ꎮ.8?9?6?? ?66?9? ??0ꎮ.1?6?1? 0??46?? 0?.ꎮ7?4?4?? ?09?6?? (?0?.ꎮ0?5?4?? 6?9?2??铃)???(0?.ꎮ ?01?7?? 0??89?赞??赞赞?)??(?0?ꎮ.0?0?6?? ?18?5?铃?赞??赞)??(?0?ꎮ.0?0?8?? ?04?3?赞??赞?赞)???(0?.ꎮ0?1?3?? 9??39?赞??赞赞?)??????ꎮ????????튻?ꎮ?????????ꎮ????????ꆪꆪ?ꎮ?????????ꎮ?????????ꎮ????????INR 620 一 905 1. 031 986 一 146 780 ?(0?.ꎮ0?4?7?? ?87?1?铃?铃?)??(0?.ꎮ0?1?5?? ?1?08??铃?赞赞?)??(?0?ꎮ.0?0?2?? ?86?5?铃??赞?赞)??(?0?ꎮ.0?0?8?? ?31?3?赞??赞?赞)???(0?.ꎮ0?1?5?? 2??60?赞??赞赞?)?I?D?R? ?-튻2?1?.ꎮ 7??59?? ?67?? 3?ꎮ.4?7?6?? ?37?7?? 一튻1?.ꎮ3?1??4? 9??69?? 2?ꎮ.2?3?9?? ?10?2?? 一튻2?.ꎮ7??54? ??21?8?? 0?.ꎮ0?6?8?? ?86??0? (?0?ꎮ.2?6?2?? ?59??2)? (?0?ꎮ.0?8?5?? ?43?3?铃?)??(?0?.ꎮ 0?1?7?? ?30?5?铃??赞?赞)??(?0?.ꎮ0?1?7?? ?5?06?铃??赞赞?)??(?0?ꎮ.0?8?4?? ?90?4?铃?)???MY?删R 튻一?ꎮ0?.?7?8?2????ꎮ?????????ꎮ?????????ꎮ?????????ꎮ?????????ꎮ????????23 324 O. 100 588 475 O. 153 029 512 (?0?ꎮ.5?0?9?? ?0?8?7)? ?(0?.ꎮ 1?8?7?? 2?1??7)? (?0?ꎮ.0?2?1?? ?57?5?铃?铃?)?(?0?ꎮ.0?8?3?? 3?9?2??铃)???(0?.ꎮ2?0?0?? 4??05??)? 注힢zꎺ括삨号뫅内쓚为캪误컳差닮值횵*ꎬ*??铃?表뇭示쪾1?ꎥ%显쿔훸著水쮮욽平쿂下춨通맽过볬检퇩验ꎬ*?*?表뇭示쪾5??%显쿔著훸水쮮平욽下쿂通춨过맽检볬验퇩，ꎬ赞?表뇭示쪾?1?0ꎥ%显쿔훸著水쮮平욽下쿂?通춨过맽检볬验퇩。ꆣ?듓从检볬验퇩的뗄结뷡果맻看뾴，ꎬ除돽?I?D?R，ꎬM?Y?R?方랽程돌总ퟜ体쳥拟쓢?合뫏뛈度뷏较差닮췢外，ꎬ웤其他쯻믵货币뇒与폫解뷢释쫍变뇤量솿均뻹具뻟有폐较뷏高룟的뗄相쿠?쯄四、ꆢ总ퟜ结뷡与폫政헾策닟建붨议틩?关맘탔性。ꆣ从듓죋人民쏱币뇒的뗄펰影响쿬뾴看，ꎬ죋人民쏱币뇒对뛔发랢达듯经뺭济볃体쳥的뗄?港룛풪元与폫新탂풪元尽뺡맜管存듦퓚在线쿟탔性关맘系쾵，ꎬ떫但与폫美쏀元풪等뗈国맺际볊关맘?뺡尽管맜，ꎬ以틔짏上的뗄实쪵证횤结뷡果맻还뮹难쓑以틔证횤实쪵人죋民쏱币뇒已틑成돉?볼键货믵币뇒相쿠比뇈，ꎬ펰影响쿬系쾵数쫽뷏较低뗍。ꆣ但떫듓从东뚫亚퇇发랢展햹中훐国맺家볒?为캪区쟸域폲内쓚的뗄货믵币뇒锚쎪，ꎬ但떫周훜边뇟新탂兴탋国맺家볒和뫍地뗘区쟸货믵币뇒与폫?뾴看，ꎬ첩泰妹、ꆢ菲럆律싉宾뇶比뇈索쯷对뛔人죋民쏱币뇒的뗄钉뚤住힡权좨重훘均뻹超뎬过맽?人죋民쏱币뇒之횮间볤已틑显쿔现쿖了쇋较뷏稳컈定뚨的뗄联솪系쾵，ꎬ在퓚一튻定뚨程돌度뛈上짏?了쇋쏀美풪元뗈等맘关볼键믵货币뇒。ꆣ令쇮죋人惊뺪틬异的뗄쫇是，ꎬ人죋民쏱币뇒对뛔印펡度뛈?说쮵明쏷人죋民쏱币뇒在퓚区쟸域폲内쓚已틑经뺭具뻟有폐一튻定뚨的뗄影펰响쿬力솦。ꆣ人죋民쏱?卢슬比뇈的뗄影펰响쿬也튲超뎬过맽美쏀元풪。ꆣ?币뇒对뛔区쟸域폲内쓚发랢햹展中훐国맺家볒和뫍地뗘区쟸货믵币뇒的뗄影펰响쿬已틑高룟于폚美쏀?元풪，ꎬ远풶强잿于폚日죕元풪。ꆣ这헢也튲说쮵明쏷，ꎬ东뚫亚퇇国맺家볒和뫍地뗘区쟸出돶于폚?9??
캬웕톶 뺭经볃济샭理싛论폫与뺭经济볃맜管理샭??2?0?0?8쓪年뗚第?4웚期?놣保돖持뺺竞헹争솦力，ꎬ캬维뮤护出돶口뿚쫐市场뎡的뗄탨需要튪，ꎬ必뇘좻然要튪使쪹货믵币뇒?쟸区폲域뗄的헻整쳥体짽升횵值뗄的믹基뒡础，ꎬ죋人民쏱뇒币짽升值횵늢并不늻뇘必然좻떼导致훂?놣保돖持쿠相뛔对폚于죋人民쏱币뇒的뗄稳컈定뚨。ꆣ从듓东뚫亚퇇经뺭济볃的뗄现쿖状ힴ看뾴，ꎬ?돶出뿚口뺺竞헹争솦力뗄的쿂下降붵，ꎬ좴却能쓜起웰到떽提쳡高룟区쟸域폲福뢣利샻水쮮平욽，ꎬ??2?00?5?쓪年?7퓂月?21?죕日죋人쏱民뇒币닉采좡取탂新뗄的믣汇싊率탎形돉成机믺制훆?뮺缓뷢解全좫球쟲国맺际볊收쫕支횧失쪧衡뫢的뗄作ퟷ用폃。ꆣ?뫳后，ꎬ십马살来컷西퇇亚等뗈뚫东南쓏亚퇇国맺家볒立솢即벴宣탻布늼对뛔美쏀元풪升짽值횵;ꎻ?캪为볓加잿强죋人民쏱뇒币ퟷ作为캪区쟸폲域믵货币뇒쎪锚的뗄功릦能쓜，ꎬ当떱前잰ퟮ最??2?0?07?쓪年?5퓂月，ꎬ泰첩妹在퓚游폎资冲돥击믷下쿂，ꎬ?1쏀美풪元突춻破웆?35?훷主튪要的뗄컊问쳢题쫇是룄改뇤变中훐国맺뺭经볃济"ꆰ强잿实쪵쳥体，ꎬ弱죵虚탩拟쓢"ꆱ的뗄?첩泰妹쪱时，ꎬ첩泰国맺中훐퇫央틸银탐行立솢即벴뷸进탐行政헾닟策탔性룉干预풤。ꆣ这헢些킩?늻不뛔对돆称룱格뻖局。ꆣ쿔显좻然，ꎬ쎻没폐有죋人民쏱币뇒的뗄国맺际볊뮯化，ꎬ믵货币뇒쎪锚?쟩情뿶况튲也쮵说쏷明，ꎬ东뚫퇇亚区쟸폲域内쓚已틑经뺭탎形돉成了쇋튻一种훖基믹于폚自ퟔ发랢?횻只쓜能쫇是틾隐탔性的뗄，ꎬ늻不쓜能돉成캪为쿔显性탔的뗄。ꆣ因틲而뛸，ꎬ进뷸튻一步늽深짮?탔性的뗄럇非헽正쪽式믣汇率싊탎形돉成믺机制훆，ꎬ죋人民쏱币뇒폐有뿉可能쓜돉成为캪区쟸域폲?뮯化뷰金融죚쳥体系쾵改룄革룯，ꎬ提쳡룟高金뷰죚融开뾪放럅度뛈，ꎬ促듙进뷸外췢汇믣和뫍资?쓚内的뗄隐틾性탔锚쎪。ꆣ?놾本쫐市场뎡的뗄发랢햹展，ꎬ훰逐步늽뾪开放럅资本놾项쿮目쒿，ꎬ加볓强잿죋人民쏱币뇒在퓚?룹根뻝据以틔짏上퇐研뺿究，ꎬ뇊笔헟者认죏캪为，ꎬ即벴使쪹不늻存듦在퓚政헾府뢮间컊?훜周뇟边区쟸폲域的뗄쪹使폃用싊率，ꎬ닅才能쓜进뷸一튻步늽增퓶强잿죋人民쏱币뇒在퓚东뚫亚퇇?汇믣싊率헾政닟策뫏合ퟷ作，ꎬ人죋民쏱币뇒퓚在东뚫퇇亚经뺭볃济中훐依틀然좻可뿉以틔，ꎬ也튲?뗄的"ꆰ쫐市뎡场쳡提릩供헟者ꆱ"뗘地캻位，ꎬ뾪开햹展区쟸域폲内쓚헾政府뢮间볤经뺭济볃和뫍?헽正돉成캪为뚫东퇇亚믵货뇒币뗄的틾隐탔性内쓚늿部쎪锚。ꆣ헢这튻一内쓚짺生믺机制훆说쮵?헾政治훎对뛔话뮰，ꎬ推췆动뚯汇믣率싊政헾策닟合뫏作ퟷ机믺制훆的뗄形탎成돉。ꆣ?쏷明，ꎬ뚫东퇇亚쟸区폲域已틑뺭经듦存퓚在춨通过맽죋人民쏱币뇒的뗄升짽值횵带듸动뚯东뚫亚퇇?닎参考뾼文컄献쿗?[?l?J? R?o??na?l?d? ?1ꎮ. ?Mc?K??in??no?n?.ꎮ ?Th?e?? E??a?s?t? ?As?i?an?? ?D?o?l?la?r? S?t?a?n??d?a?r?dꎬ, L??if?e?? a??f?te??r? ?D?e?a?t?h? ?[J??J ꎮ. E?c??on??om?i?cs?? N??o?te?s?,ꎬ ?20?0?0?ꎬ, (?2?9?)? ꎮ.? ?[2??J C?ꎮ. F??re?d?? ?B?e?r?g?st?e?n?.ꎮ ?Th?e?? ?D?o?l?la?r? a?n?d?? ?th?e?? ?E?ur??o? [?J?J? .ꎮ ?F?or?e?i?g??n? ?Af?f??a?irs?,ꎬ ?1?99?7?,ꎬ 7?6? ?(4?)? .ꎮ? ?[3?J?샮李晓쿾，ꎬ'뚡1튻"뇸一兵ꎮ.퇇亚훞洲뗄的뎬超풽越[??MJ?.ꎮ놱北뺩京:ꎺ当떱代듺中훐国맺出돶版냦社짧，ꎬ?2?00??6.ꎮ? ?[4?J?关맘쫀世雄탛.ꎮ亚퇇洲훞货믵币뇒一튻体쳥化뮯研퇐究뺿2ꎺ日죕풪元，쟸区랢发햹展쟷趋势쫆[??MJ?ꎮ.놱北뺩京:ꎺ中훐国맺财닆政헾经뺭济볃出돶版냦社짧，ꎬ2?0??03?.ꎮ ??[5?J?돂陈志횾昂낺，ꎬ王췵义틥中훐.ꎮ论싛人죋民쏱币뇒汇믣率싊双쮫重훘均뻹衡[뫢J?J??.ꎮ管맜理샭世쫀界뷧，ꎬ?20?0?5?,ꎬ (?5?)? ꎮ.? ?[6?J? ?Je?f?f??re?y? ??A.ꎮ ?Fr?a?n?k?e?l?,ꎬ S?h??a?ng?ꆪ-?Ji?n? ??We?i?.ꎮ Y??en?? B?l?oc??k ?o??r? D??o?l?la?r? ?B??lo?ck?? ?Ex?c?h?a?n?g?e? ?R?a?t?e? ?P?o?l?i?ci?e?s? o?f? ?t?h?e? ?E?a?s??t? ?As?i?an?? E?c?o??no?m?i?es?? [?A?J? .ꎮ T?a?k?a?t?o?s?h?i? I?t?o?ꎬ, ?An?n?e?? K??ru??e?g?e?r.ꎮ M??a?c?r?oe?c?o?n?o?m?i?c? ?L?i?nk?a??g?e?s:ꎺ S?a?v?i?ng?s?ꎬ, ?Ex?c?h?a?n?g?e? ?R??a?te? ?a?n?d? ?C?ap?i?ta??l F?l?ow?s? [?C?J? .ꎮ T?h?e?? U?n?i?ve?r??si?ty? ?o??f? ?C?hi?ca?g?o?? P??re?s?s?ꎬ????ꎮ?, 1994. (?퓰责죎任뇠编벭辑ꎺ:뢶付敏쏴}?C?U??RR?E?N?C?Y? ?C?O??MP?E?T?I?T?I?V?E?? E?Q?U??IL?I?B?R?I?U?M?? I?N?? E?A?S??T? A?S?I?A?? A?N?D?? ?RE?N?岛?U?N?B?I????????????????ANCHOR EFFECT ????????ꆪ????CHEN Zhi-ang C??S?c?h?oo?l? o?f? ?F?i?n?a?n?c?e?,ꎬ Z?h?e?j?i??an?g?? G?o?n?g?s?h?a?n?g?? U?n?i?v?e?r?s?i?t?y?,ꎬ H?a?n?g?z?h?o?u?? 3?1?0?0?1?8?,ꎬ C?h?i?na?)? ?????????ꎺ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????Abstract: The appreciation space of Renminbi is determ ned by collectively compet tive equilibrium in E?a?s?t? ?A?s? ?an? ?c?u?r?r?e?n?c?y?.ꎮ C?o?l?l?e?c?t?i?ve? ?a?p?p?r?e?c?i?a?t?i?o?n? ?o?f? ?E?a?s?t? ??????????????????????????????????????????????????ꆪ?Asian currency makes for relieving international n›???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????ꎮ????come and expense imbalance all over the world and raises the welfare level of East Asian economy. The ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????ꆯ???????????????????????????foundation that makes Renminbi appreciation drive the whole East Asian region’s appreciation has already ???????????????????ꎮ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????ꎬ?existed in this area. Renminbi appreciation will not necessarily lead to the decline of export competence, ??????ꎬ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????ꆪ?instead, it can raise regional welfare level and relieve the effects of international income and expense imbal-a?n?c?e?.ꎮ ??????????ꎺ?????????ꎻ???????????????ꎻ????????????????????????ꎻ????????????????????????Key Words: East Asia; currency anchor; optimized currency region; competitive equilibrium 1?0? ?
