뗚8뻭뗚2웚뿆ꆡ톧ꆡ톧ꆡ놨2005쓪4퓂ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ맜ꆡ샭ꆡJOURNALOFMANAGEMENTSCIENCESINCHINAꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ믹폚럇쿟탔샭싛뗄웳튵쫐뎡볛횵좡쿲햽싔퇐뺿ꋙ뫺몺믔1,엋낲돉1,쇵뫬뻼2(1.뚫쓏듳톧뺭볃맜샭톧풺,쓏뺩210096;2.돉뚼샭릤듳톧탅쾢맜샭톧풺,돉뚼610059)햪튪:헫뛔뒫춳웳튵뛔쫐뎡볛횵뗄쿟탔쮼캬쒣쪽,샻폃럇쿟탔샭싛붨솢쇋믹폚Logistic랽돌뗄쫐뎡볛횵쒣탍,틔벰웳튵쓚늿쫐뎡쇬쿈햽싔폫벼쫵쇬쿈햽싔쒣탍;춨맽쒣탍럖컶쇋쪵쪩떥튻쫐뎡쇬쿈햽싔믲벼쫵쇬쿈햽싔웳튵뗄랢햹잰뺰;쳡돶쇋웳튵쫐뎡볛횵좡쿲뗄쮫뷊쿟뻹뫢햽싔벰햽싔뚯첬뿘훆튪쟳.맘볼듊:쫐뎡볛횵;쫐뎡쇬쿈햽싔;벼쫵쇬쿈햽싔;늩?럖컶;뚯첬뿘훆훐춼럖샠뫅:C93ꆡꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:Aꆡꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:1007-9807(2005)02-0026-050ꆡ틽ꆡ퇔훂쿮쒿쪧냜;ퟮ뷼얷쏀룷듳뗧탅릫쮾뗄뻞뛮뿷쯰짵훁쏦쇙떹뇕,훷튪풭틲횮튻뻍쫇맽럖ힷ쟳3G뒫춳뗄쫐뎡볛횵좡쿲햽싔췹췹쫇떥튻뗄쫐뎡벼쫵햽싔뛸췑샫쫐뎡탨쟳.쇬쿈햽싔믲벼쫵쇬쿈햽싔.헢킩떥튻뗄쿟탔햽싔햽싔뗄쒿뗄쫇붫웳튵뗄쓚늿풴뫍횪쪶벼쓜퓚뛌쪱웚쓚뿉쓜좡뗃뷏뫃뗄뺭펪튵벨.컄쿗\[1\쳡튪쯘폫평췢늿틲쯘퓬돉뗄믺믡뫍럧쿕뷸탐욥]돶뗄삭뚯쮼쿫쫇쫐뎡쇬쿈햽싔뗄듺뇭엤\[10\].놾컄쫔춼틔럇쿟탔샭싛캪믹뒡릹붨쫐뎡볛,죃맋뿍듓탨쟳랽쏦삭뚯웳튵볛횵;웳튵훆쪤뗄램놦쫇쓇킩횵쒣탍,붨솢쇋웳튵쓚늿쫐뎡쇬쿈햽싔쒣탍뫍벼뒵쎫쟳듃뗄뿍뮧,뿍뮧뗄싺틢쫇짌튵햽싔뗄쟽뚯쫵쇬쿈햽싔쒣탍,퓚듋믹뒡짏뛔솽훖늻춬볛횵좡믺\[2,3\],웳튵뗄죎컱쫇톰헒탨쟳늢싺ퟣ뿍뮧,뛸늻쿲햽싔뷸탐뚯첬뻹뫢럖컶,뷸튻늽쳡돶쇋쮫훘햽쫇훆퓬벰쿺쫛닺욷\[4\].뛸탅럮벼쫵쇬쿈뗄웳튵힢싔뗄뚯첬뿘훆튪쟳.훘폚캴살뺭펪볛횵,탂벼쫵쿺쫛뛮퓚틽죫뫳5ꆫ10쓪뻍믡뎬맽뻉벼쫵\[5\],벼쫵뒴탂쓜룄뇤탐튵뗄1ꆡ쫐뎡볛횵쒣탍릹붨쇬떼뗘캻\[6\],늢닺짺태뇋쳘ퟢ뷰.퓚뺺헹벤쇒뗄탅쾢뮯쪱듺,떥뒿믹폚쿟탔쮼ꆡ컊쳢쏨쫶캬뗄쫐뎡볛횵뇤뮯뗄뺭펪샭쓮풽살풽쿔쿖웤뇗튻룶웳튵퓚좫쏦뺺헹훐뎤웚돉릦,퓚폚늻뛏뛋.쮳듓쫐뎡쟽뚯,솬탸룄뷸닺욷,볈뿉쓜쫇돉릦쿲맋뿍돶쫛ퟮ병볛횵\[2\].쯹캽ퟮ병볛횵쫇횸쫊쪱뗄샭쓮,튲뿉쓜캪쪧냜쇴쿂틾뮼\[7\];슷뺶틀삵뗄ퟔ뗘싺ퟣ맋뿍믹폚쫐뎡볛횵쟺쿟짏뗄탨쟳.평폚쿻컒잿뮯믺훆췹췹쪹웳튵쓑틔랢햹탂뗄쫊펦쓜솦,럑헟쫐뎡쫇짧믡뗄폐믺좺쳥,웤탨쟳뇤뮯뻟폐ퟔ쿝죫ꆰ맟탔쿝?ꆱ(incumbentinertia)믲ꆰ뫋탄룕탔ꆱ훷탔뫍ퟔ쫊펦탔,쫐뎡뗄ퟔ컒ퟩ횯ꆢퟔ컒뷸뮯뗄쓜d\[8\](corerigiities),퓚뛠쫽낸샽훐,헢쫇뷓뷼쿻췶솦쪹쫐뎡볛횵튲뇭쿖돶폐믺뗄짺첬쳘탔.떱쫐뎡뗄헷헗.Utterback뗄퇐뺿뇭쏷\[9\],튻캶ힷ쟳탂닺욷듓튻룶뷗뛎떽쇭튻뷗뛎퇝뷸쪱,평폚뺺헹,붫돶쿖뾪랢믡룸쿮쒿ퟩ돉풱듸살돖탸톹솦,쪹탂닺욷뗄닮틬뮯훰늽쟷폚튻훂,쫐뎡뷡릹뗄뇤뮯뫍뒴탂훰훊솿뿘훆닝싊,쫐뎡펪쿺볆뮮좱랦햽싔탔,듓뛸떼붥복짙,쿖폐닺욷뗄쫐뎡킧폃쮮욽늻뛏붵뗍뗈쿖ꋙ쫕룥죕웚:2002-12-28;탞뚩죕웚:2004-11-10.믹뷰쿮쒿:맺볒ퟔ좻뿆톧뷰훺쿮쒿(79970097;70473013).ퟷ헟볲뷩:뫺몺믔(1956ꆪ),쓐,붭쯕쓏춨죋,쮶쪿,뷌쫚,늩쪿짺떼쪦.
뗚2웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뫺몺믔뗈:믹폚럇쿟탔샭싛뗄웳튵쫐뎡볛횵좡쿲햽싔퇐뺿ꆪ27ꆪ쿳,헢풤쪾ퟅ쫐뎡볛횵랢짺춻뇤\[11\].쯹틔,쫐뎡훐놥뫍횵).쿔쪾퓚춼탎짏쫇S탎,쿠펦뗄쫐뎡볛횵뻸듳뛠쫽맋뿍뫍잱퓚맋뿍뗄욽뻹샛믽킧폃쮮욽뗄몯쫽돆캪S탎퓶뎤쟺쿟.평쪽(4)뗃횪,떱tꇺ쫐뎡볛횵돊쿖돶럇쿟탔뇤뮯.쫐뎡볛횵쟺쿟붨솢+ꇞ,V(t)ꇺK,쟒떥뗷뗝퓶,떱V(t)퓶뎤떽tꇝ퓚쫐뎡샛믽킧폃쮮욽믹뒡짏,뛸럇쳘뚨뗄닺욷탨tm쪱,쫜쫐뎡훆풼,쫐뎡볛횵퓶뎤쟷뮺,쫐뎡킧폃쟳쟺쿟,떱쫐뎡볛횵뎬풽쇋룃닺욷뗄퓘쳥뢺뫉솦쮮욽붵뗍,퓐폽ퟅ쫐뎡볛횵뗄훊뇤.쪱,룃닺욷붫ퟟ쿲쮥췋,쫐뎡볛횵쟺쿟쫇쓚짺뗄;춬쪱쫐뎡뻟폐톧쾰킧펦,쯹틔쫐뎡볛횵쟺쿟튲쫜2ꆡ웳튵쓚늿쫐뎡볛횵좡쿲뗄햽싔쒣탍떽뮷뺳뗄펰쿬.ꆡ쫐뎡볛횵쒣탍릹붨벰웤풭샭ꆡ쫐뎡쇬쿈햽싔쒣탍퓚튻뚨쪱웚,짨쫐뎡볛횵뗄퓶뎤쫇튻룶솬탸쫐뎡쇬쿈햽싔쫇횸웳튵룹뻝쫐뎡볛횵뗄뇤뮯맽돌,V(t)쫇t쪱뿌뗄쫐뎡볛횵맛닢횵,퓲쫐뎡늻뛏룺뷸,벰쪱탞뚩쓚늿쫐뎡볛횵쟺쿟,뺡뿉쓜쪹볛횵뗄쮲쪱퓶뎤싊뿉틔평쿂쪽뇭쪾웤폫(췢늿)쫐뎡볛횵쟺쿟튻훂.퓚쫐뎡볛횵쟺쿟dV(t)=rdmV(t)(1)뇤뮯뮺싽뗄쟩뿶쿂,닉폃쫐뎡쇬쿈햽싔뗄웳튵쓚t웤훐늿쫐뎡볛횵쟺쿟뿉틔뷼쯆뾴ퟷ폫(췢늿)쫐뎡볛,rm캪쪵볊퓶뎤싊.틲캪쫐뎡볛횵쫜쿻럑헟킧폃뇟볊뗝복맦싉뗈풼쫸,쫐뎡볛횵듦퓚튻룶쫐횵듦퓚쪱훍T0.뎡죝솿짨V1(t)쫇닉폃쫐뎡쇬쿈햽싔뗄웳튵쓚늿쫐(carryingcapacity)짏쿞K.짨r캪쫐뎡볛횵뗄쓚?ퟔ좻퓶뎤싊뎡볛횵몯쫽,rꆢKꆢꢻ뚨틥춬잰,퓲(intrinsicrateofnaturalincrease),Kꆢr캪뎣쫽.쯦ퟅ쫐뎡볛횵V(t)훰붥V1(t)=K1+exp(ꢻ(+7)rT0-rt)쿲K횵뇆뷼,쪵볊퓶뎤싊rm믡훰붥복짙,틲뛸짨웤훐,tꇊ[0,tꇤ\].떱t=tꇤ쪱,웳튵닉폃킱싊캪km=rm=r(K-V(t))/K(2)dV1(t)평쪽(1)ꆢ(2)뿉뗃쫐뎡볛횵쯦쪱볤뇤뮯뗄퓶dt|t=tꇤ뗄쿟탔뗷헻햽싔,늢폫잰웚뗄쓚늿쫐뎡뎤랽돌볛횵쟺쿟탎돉욽뮬쿟;떱t>tꇤ쪱,웳튵쫜ퟔ짭쳵볾dV(t)쿞훆,컞램룺뷸췢늿쫐뎡볛횵뗄뇤뮯뷚ퟠ,벴=V(t)rV(t)dt(1-K)(3)V1ꇤ(t)=kmt+V1(tꇤ)(8)웤돵쪼쳵볾캪tꇝ0,V0=V(0).쿔좻,쪽(3)쫇V1ꇤ(t)쫇쪵탐쫐뎡쇬쿈햽싔뗄웳튵퓚t>tꇤLogistic쒣탍.뷢쪽(3)뿉뗃쪱뗄쓚늿쫐뎡볛횵몯쫽.ꆡ벼쫵쇬쿈햽싔쒣탍V(t)=K(4)틽떼쿻럑쫇벼쫵쇬쿈햽싔뗄룹놾쯹퓚,웤쒿뗄1+exp(ꢻ-rt)웤훐,ꢻ캪믽럖뎣쫽.V(t)뗄춼탎랴펳쇋쫐뎡볛퓚폚믱좡ꆰ쿈뚯헟ꆱ샻틦,믱뗃뎬뛮샻죳.볙뚨닉폃벼횵쟺쿟쯦쪱볤돊S탎뇤뮯뗄럇쿟탔쳘헷쫵쇬쿈햽싔뗄웳튵뷸죫쫐뎡뗄쪱볤캪,V30=쪽(3)솽뇟쟳떼,뿉뗃쪽(4)뗄뛾뷗떼쫽V(0),풤닢쇋쫐뎡죝솿K뫍쫐뎡볛횵뗄쓚?퓶뎤싊d2V(t)d2=dV(t)2V(r,늢틔쪽(4)훐t=tm쪱뗄킱싊rK/4캪웳튵쓚늿쫐t)rtdt(1-K)(5)뎡볛횵쿟탔퓶뎤쯙뛈뷸탐벼쫵뾪랢,퓲쇮d2V(t)(t)ꇙ0쪱,뗃d2=0,떱dVV2(t)=rKt+V3(9)20tdtVm=K/2(6)V2(t)쫇쪵탐벼쫵쇬쿈햽싔뗄웳튵쓚늿쫐뎡쪽(6)쫇쪽(3)뗄뗣믲쪽(4)뗄맕뗣,벴룃볛횵몯쫽.쫐뎡볛횵S탎쟺쿟퓚t=tm뒦평낼뇤춹.평쪽(6)뿉횪,Vm캪쪵닢쫐뎡볛횵쟺쿟짏킱싊ퟮ듳뗄뗣.3ꆡ쒣탍펦폃럖컶V(t)쫇듺뇭쫐뎡볛횵뗄떥뗷퓶뎤몯쫽,떱tꇝtm쪱,퓶뎤쯙뛈풽살풽싽,ퟮ뫳쟷폚폐쿞횵K(돆캪웳튵뛔웤쓚늿쫐뎡볛횵쟺쿟뗄뿘훆솦
ꆪ28ꆪ맜ꆡ샭ꆡ뿆ꆡ톧ꆡ톧ꆡ놨ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2005쓪4퓂h=Vcq(10)2001쓪4퓂1죕훁2002쓪3퓂31죕뗄듳릫쮾닆컱웤훐:Vc쫇웳튵쓚늿쫐뎡볛횵쯹뒦뗄쮮욽(믲맛뻶닟놨룦쿔쪾,뒴퓬죕놾짱뮰뗄웟듳뗧ퟓ웳튵,돽닢횵),튲쫇웳튵뗄쫐뎡뗘캻;q캪웳튵뿘훆잿뛈쯷쓡릫쮾췢,웤폠쇹볒릫쮾좫늿쿝죫뻞뛮뿷쯰.쾵쫽.뛔폚벼쫵쇬쿈햽싔뗄웳튵살쮵,평쪽(10)횪뛔폚쫐뎡쇬쿈뗄웳튵,평쪽(7)뫍쪽(8)뗃웤쓚늿쫐뎡볛횵쟺쿟뗄뿘훆솦캪hꇤ=Vcqꇤ.웤Vc=ꇒtꇤV1(t)dt+ꇒt훐,Vc=0tꇤV1ꇤ(t)dt;뛔폚벼쫵쇬쿈뗄웳ꇒtV2(t)dt,평쪽(9)뫍(4)뗃0튵ꚤV2=rKKt+V40-(15),평쪽(9)횪Vc=ꇒtV2(t)좡뻶폚웳튵맜1+exp(ꢻ-rt)0샭쓜솦ꆢ펪쿺쓜솦ꆢ퇐랢쓜솦뗈폐믺ퟛ뫏뗄뷡릹쓜평쪽(4)뗄떥뗷뗝퓶탔뫍쪽(5)룸돶뗄V(t)솦.쿔좻,h폫떱잰뗄웳튵쓚늿쫐뎡볛횵쮮욽돉헽뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈맦싉,틔벰V2(t)돊킱싊캪rK뗄쿟탔뇈4,쯼뇭쪾죝탭웳튵뗷헻쓚늿쫐뎡볛횵뗄럹뛈.퓶뎤,랽돌ꚤV2-hꇤ=0뗄뷢캪t뛔폚쫐뎡쇬쿈웳튵1=t0,t2=3t,,0ꇜtꇜtꇤ쪱,평쪽(4)ꆢ(7)횪t0쫇돵쪼뷢.ꚤV32(t)=hꇤ,폖dꚤV2ꇝ0,틲듋,dtꚤV=K떱0ꇜtꇜ3t,벼쫵쇬쿈햽싔뗄웳튵쓜뿘훆쓚늿-1+exp(ꢻ-rt)쫐뎡볛횵쟺쿟뇆뷼(췢늿)쫐뎡볛횵쟺쿟.떫쫇웳K(11)1+exp(ꢻ+튵ퟅ퇛폚캴살뗄볛횵,쯦ퟅ쫐뎡뺺헹죕쟷벤쇒,쯻rT0-rt)떱쏇늻뛏볓잿벼쫵뾪랢,쪹쓚늿쫐뎡볛횵쟺쿟늻뛏T0ퟣ릻킡쪱,룹뻝쪽(3)뿉냑쪽(11)볲뮯캪첧룟,떱t>3t쪱,ꚤV2>hꇤ,웳튵풽살풽풶샫쫐ꚤVꇖT0rKexp(ꢻ-rt)뎡.죧춶50틚쏀뷰뗄튿탇릫쮾뗄떹뇕뷸튻늽캪(1+2(12)exp(ꢻ-rt))뛔쪽(12)솽뇟쟳떼,뗃벼쫵쇬쿈웳튵쟃쿬쇋뺯훓.룹뻝틔짏럖컶,웳튵뗄랢햹틑늻퓙뷶뷶틔쿻ꆡdꚤ2VrK[exp2(ꢻ-rt)-exp(ꢻ-rt)]T=0d3t[1+exp(ꢻ-r럑헟캪떼쿲,Bomer뫍Christensen퓸횸돶죧맻맋t)](13)뿍좺쳥솦솿맽폚잿듳,믡쪹쫐뎡쇬쿈웳튵쿞훆뒴뛔펦쒳튻쪱뿌t,평쪽(13)뗃dꚤV탂쓜솦뗄랢햹[14];웳튵폫쫐뎡쫇튻훖뮥뚯뗄맘=O(Td0).t쾵,웳튵듦퓚뗄샭평쫇쳡릩퓚(췢늿)쫐뎡볛횵쟺쯹틔,떱0ꇜtꇜtꇤ,닉폃쫐뎡쇬쿈햽싔뗄웳쿟짏뗄볛횵쮮욽.춬쪱,웳튵뗄랢햹튲늻쓜횻틔벼튵퓚늻뛏쇋뷢쫐뎡뇤뮯쪱,ꚤV뗄퓶뎤럇뎣뮺싽,쫵쇬쿈캪떼쿲,틲듋웳튵뗄볛횵좡쿲햽싔펦룃닉돉릦뗄웳튵싺ퟣꚤVꇜh.폃벼쫵쇬쿈뫍쫐뎡쇬쿈붻횯뗄쮫훘뻹뫢햽싔,쪹쯦ퟅ췢늿쫐뎡볛횵쟺쿟뗄뇤뮯늻뛏볓뻧,떱웳튵쓚늿쫐뎡볛횵쟺쿟폫(췢늿)쫐뎡볛횵쟺쿟tꇤ<tꇜtꇥ쪱,룹뻝km뗄뚨틥,평쪽(4)ꆢ(8)뿉횪릹돉쮫뷊쿟.ꚤVꇤ=V(t)-V1ꇤ(14)평쪽(4)뗄떥뗷뗝퓶탔뫍쪽(5)룸돶뗄V(t)4ꆡ햽싔늩?럖컶벰쮫뷊쿟뚯첬뿘훆뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈맦싉,틔벰Vꇤ(t)돊킱싊캪rK뗄쿟탔4퓶뎤,뗃랽돌ꚤVꇤ-h=0뗄뷢캪t1=tꇥ,t2=tÊ뚨틥ꆡ뛔폚쳹쿖틲ퟓꛄT=(ꛄ1,ꛄ2)뫍횧뢶.dV쿲솿u(ii=1,2),듦퓚ꛋ>0,죧맻mꢻxuꛄ(iꇜꛋt)-kdm>0,벴dꚤVꇤ>0,맊ꚤVꇤ돊쿖벱뻧퓶tdt쪱,웳튵닉좡볌돐햽싔;mꢻxuꛄi>ꛋ쪱,웳튵쪵쪩뎤,t>tꇥ쪱,ꚤVꇤ>h,뇭쏷웳튵ퟔ짭쪧뿘뛸쪧좥틆햽싔,벴쫐뎡쇬쿈햽싔쿲벼쫵쇬쿈햽싔틆,쫐뎡.믲랴횮.웤훐:ꛋ캪햽싔뻶닟뗄웚췻쮮욽;ꛄ1+떱t>tÊ쪱,쯦ퟅ쫐뎡볛횵랢짺쇋훊뗄뇤뮯,ꛄ2=1,ꛄ1ꇝ0,ꛄ2ꇝ0.웳튵퓚쫐뎡훐틑컞뺺헹폅쫆.샽죧:죕놾뛠쫽웳튵붫웳튵쓚늿뗄룟닣맜샭죋풱ꆢ짮펪쿺뫍벼쿲살닉폃쮳펦쫐뎡뗄붥뷸뒴탂쒣쪽,좻뛸죕놾쫵볒럖캪늩?랽1뫍늩?랽2,늩?랽1욫뫃쫐
뗚2웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뫺몺믔뗈:믹폚럇쿟탔샭싛뗄웳튵쫐뎡볛횵좡쿲햽싔퇐뺿ꆪ29ꆪ뎡쇬쿈햽싔,늩?랽2욫뫃벼쫵쇬쿈햽싔,늢쟒쮫튵햽싔ퟮ듳웚췻쮮욽ꛋ뗄횵.떱쓚늿쫐뎡볛횵쟺랽퓚췪좫탅쾢쿂뷸탐쒣쓢탔늩?.웳튵ퟮ훕뻶닟쿟폫췢늿쫐뎡볛횵쟺쿟욫샫솿ꚤVꇜh,벴헟뢳폨늩?랽1뫍늩?랽2뗄좨훘럖뇰쫇ꛄ1>mꢻxuꛄiꇜꛋ쪱(i=1,2),웳튵닉폃볌돐햽싔;0,ꛄ2>0,ꛄ1+ꛄ2=1,쇮ꛄT=(ꛄ1,ꛄ2),퓚쫐뎡쇬떱ꚤV>h,벴mꢻxuꛄi>ꛋ쪱,웳튵쪵쪩틆햽쿈햽싔잰쳡쿂,쮫랽믱뗃뗄횧뢶쿲솿ui=(u1i,싔.웳튵뿉틔캧죆췢늿쫐뎡볛횵쟺쿟늻뛏뗷헻햽u2)(ii=1,2),죧춼1,헢샯뗄횧뢶쿲솿늻럁볙뚨싔,캬돖햽싔뗄뚯첬뻹뫢,쪹웳튵뗄뺺헹폅쫆뗃틔캪늩?쮫랽퓚췪좫샭탔쟩뿶쿂죏캪쳘뚨햽싔룸웳믖뢴뫍ힳ듳,돉릦뗄웳튵쓜릻폐킧뗘쫊펦뇤뮯,늻튵듸살뗄볛횵.좡mꢻxuꛄ(ii=1,2),웳튵ퟮ훕뻶뛏뗷헻햽싔,듓뛸쓜뺭쫜돥믷,퓚닐뿡뗄뺺헹훐닟헟평뚨틥뿉횪뻹뫢뷢.춬샭,뿉틔뗃돶퓚벼쫵쇬뗃틔탋췺랢듯.쿈쳵볾쿂뗄뻹뫢뷢.뇭1ꆡ탐뚯랽낸뗄횧뢶쮮욽5ꆡ뷡쫸폯Table1Payofflevelsofactionalternatives늩?랽늩?랽12볓잿웳튵ퟔ횪쪶쓜솦뗄퓶뎤,늻뛏쳡룟ퟔ짭닟싔A1닟싔A2뗄뒴탂쓜솦ꆢ펪쿺쓜솦뫍맜샭쓜솦,쪹횮돉캪폐믺닟싔A1(-1,-1)(u11,u12)뗄뷡릹쓜솦,쳘뇰쫇볛횵뒴탂뗄폐믺릹돉,닅쓜쳡닟싔A2(u21,u22)(0,0)짽웳튵뗄쫐뎡룉풤잿뛈;춨맽ퟩ횯톧쾰죏쪶웳튵ꆡꆡ뛔폚웳튵쓚늿늩?쮫랽뗄횧뢶쿲솿ui,뿉틔뺭펪햽싔뗄뚯첬탔,퓚훆뚨햽싔쪱,펦쿈좷뚨튵컱춨맽움맀뻘헳,평좨쾵쫽쒣탍좷뚨.퓚ꛋ좷뚨뗄쟩폐믺릹돉,늻튪쎤쒿삩헅뫍ힷ쟳퓶뎤,뛸튪폐뷸폐뿶쿂(평h듳킡뻶뚨),뻶닟헟뢳폨늩?랽좨훘쿲췋,횻폐헢퇹닅쓜냑컕햽싔뗄훷뚯좨뫍훆룟뗣;뚨솿ꛄ,헢퇹뇣릹돉쇋ꛄ쳹쿖ힼ퓲쿂뗄믹폚쪱볤탲웚뻙탐룟닣맜샭믡틩,뛔웳튵뺭펪햽싔뷸탐움맀,쇐뗄튻쾵쇐뻹뫢뷢,탎돉뗄쟺쿟폫쪵볊쫐뎡볛횵폈웤힢틢퓚쫐뎡뮷뺳늻컈뚨뗄쟩뿶,쫊떱쳡룟믡쟺쿟탎돉쮫뷊쿟.틩욵싊,볬퇩뫍좷뚨틆햽싔뗄웚췻쮮욽;볓잿릵평쪽(10),횪웳튵뛔쓚늿쫐뎡볛횵쟺쿟뗄뿘춨,ퟶ뫃뗷헻햽싔뗄쿠맘쫂틋.헢킩뛔폚볦맋맋훆솦뛈좡뻶폚웳튵ퟔ횪쪶쓜솦[15,16],벴웳튵뛔쫐뿍ꆢ풱릤뫍웤쯻룷랽샻틦,캬뮤웳튵탅폾,붵뗍럧뎡뗄ퟷ폃솦q뫍웤쫐뎡뗘캻Vc릲춬뻶뚨쇋죝탭웳쿕쫇쪮럖뇘튪뗄.닎뾼컄쿗:\[1\W]omackJP,:BanishWasteandCreateWealthinYourCorporation\[M\].Boston:Simon&Schuster,1996.\[2\]\[M\].NewYork:JohnWiley&SonsInc,2001.\[3\]Cat2sBarilWL,,TechnologyandManagement\[M\].Dordrecht,Irwin:1997.\[4\쟇]훎ꆤ듯틁.쫐뎡쟽뚯햽싔\[M\].놱뺩:뮪쿄돶냦짧,\[M\].Beijing:HuaxiaPress,2000.(inChinese)\[5\C]ooperA,\[J\].BusinessHorizons,1976,19(1):61ꆪ69.\[6\]:Anewparadigm\[J\].AcademyofManagementExecutive,1992,(16):56ꆪ78.\[7\]\[M\].Boston:HarvardBusinessSchoolPress,1994.\[8\]:Aparadoxinmanagingnewsproductdevelopment\[J\].StrategicManagementJournal,1992,13:111ꆪ125.\[9\]\[J\].IEEETransactiononEngineeringManagement,1995,42(4):297ꆪ304.\[10\G]:Implicationsforstrategyformulation\[J\].CaliforniaManagementR2eview,1991,(Spring):114.
ꆪ30ꆪ맜ꆡ샭ꆡ뿆ꆡ톧ꆡ톧ꆡ놨ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2005쓪4퓂\[11\]BuzzellRD,\[M\].NewYork:FreePress,1986.\[12\돂]삼?.쫽톧짺첬톧쒣탍폫퇐뺿랽램\[M\].놱뺩:뿆톧돶냦짧,\[M\].Beijing:SciencePress,1988.(inChinese)\[13\췵]쿾쏷,맋엠쇁,쟱쫀쏷.믹폚럇쿟탔샭싛뗄CO2풤닢랽램\[J\].맜샭뿆톧톧놨,2002,5(4):22ꆪ,GuPeiliang,\[J\].JournalofMana2gementSciencesinChina,2002,5(4):22ꆪ27.(inChinese)\[14\믴]맺쟬.웳튵햽싔탅쾢맜샭\[M\].놱뺩:뿆톧돶냦짧,\[M\].Beijing:SciencePress,2001.(inChinese)\[15\엋]낲돉,쇵뫬뻼.믹폚웳튵뫋탄쓜솦뗄ퟔ횪쪶쓜솦퇐뺿\[J\].훐맺맜샭뿆톧,2002,10(벭):435ꆪ,ꆯsself-knowledgebasedoncorecompetencetheory\[J\].ChineseJournalofManagementScience,2002,10(specialissue):435ꆪ441.(inChinese)\[16\뫺]몺믔,훜훎몲.웳튵뫋탄쓜솦뗄횪쪶헻뫏쳘헷\[J\].맜샭릤돌톧놨,2001,15(4):16ꆪ,:Theintergrationofknowledge\[J\].JournalofIndustrialEngineeringandEngineeringManagement,2001,15(4):16ꆪ19.(inChinese)\[17\W]:HowtheBestGetandKeeptheCompetitiveEdge\[M\].NewYork:Bantam,ꆯmarketing2valuestrategybasedonnonlineartheoryHUH12an2hui,PANAn21cheng,&Management,SoutheastUniversity,Nanjing210096,China;,ChengduUniversityofTechnology,Chengdu610059,ChinaAbstract:Inallusiontothetraditionalassumptionbydecisionmakersthatthechangeofmarketingvalueislinear,thearticleestablishesLogisticmarketvaluemodelbasedonitsvariantlawwithnonlineartheory,andwiththemod2el,givesoutfurtherreasonablymarket2leadingstrategicmodelandtechnology2leadingstrategicmodelwithinenter2prisesaftertheanalysisofthetraditionalassumption,proofsoutanddwellsonthesestrategiesꆯ,,:marketingvalue;market2leadingstrategy;technology2leadingstrategy;gameanalysis;dynamiccontrol
