ꆡꆡꆡꆡ맑춷뺺헹ꆢ닟싔뮥뚯폫뛔췢횱뷓춶십퇇쏷ꆡ헅퇒맳3ꆡꆡ쓚죝쳡튪ꆡ놾컄폃럇뫏ퟷ늩?뗄쮼쿫랽램,럖컶쇋웳튵볤닟싔뮥뚯뛔FDI뻶닟뗄펰쿬,FDI뿉쓜쫇늻춬쳵볾쿂늩?뗄뷡맻,퓚좱랦웳튵쳘뚨폅쫆뗄쟩탎쿂,웳튵횮볤뗄닟싔뮥뚯뿉쓜듙돉FDI뗄랢짺ꆣ퓚좫쏦햹쿖맑춷뎧짌횮볤뗄틖훆폫랴틖훆ꆢ닟싔탐뚯폫랴닟싔탐뚯뛔웳튵FDI뻶닟펰쿬뗄춬쪱,컒쏇횤쏷쇋웳튵폅쫆쯤좻쫇FDI뗄튻룶훘튪뻶뚨틲쯘,떫쯼볈늻쫇FDI뗄돤럖쳵볾,튲늻쫇뇘튪쳵볾,틲듋퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏뛔훷쇷뿧맺릫쮾폅쫆샭싛뷸탐쇋늹돤뫍췪짆ꆣ맘볼듊ꆡ뛔췢횱뷓춶ꆡ닟싔뮥뚯ꆡ럇뫏ퟷ늩?ꆡ뺺헹폅쫆FDI;Motta(1992)퓚볙뚨뚫뗀맺듦퓚튻잱퓚뷸죫튻ꆢ틽퇔헟뗄잰쳡쿂,폃늩?싛뗄럖컶랽램뛔웳튵퓚FDI폫돶뿚횮볤뗄톡퓱뷸탐퇐뺿,뗃돶쇋튻킩폫뒫춳훷쇷뿧맺릫쮾폅쫆샭싛ꋙ횲룹폚늻췪좫쫐맛뗣쿠뗄뷡싛ꆣ죧뚫뗀맺뗄쫐뎡맦쒣폫FDI벰뎡,떫틅몶뗄쫇쯼쎻폐뾼싇떽늻췪좫쫐뎡훐웳튵돶뿚톡퓱횮볤늻듦퓚볲떥뗄떥뗷맘쾵,맘쮰뿉쓜횮볤뗄닟싔풼쫸뫍랴펦ꆣ퓚늻췪좫뺺헹쫐뎡훐,쳘웰떽ퟨ낭FDI뗄ퟷ폃뗈ꆣ놾컄쫗쿈붨솢췪좫탅쾢뇰쫇맑햼쫐뎡훐,웳튵횮볤뗄탐캪쫇쿠뮥펰쿬뗄,뚯첬늩?쳵볾쿂뗄FDI쒣탍,좻뫳붫헢튻쒣탍삩쯹틔웳튵퓚뻶닟쪱뇘탫뾼싇ퟔ짭탐캪뗄펰쿬뫍뛔햹떽늻췪좫탅쾢뫍뚯첬뗄쟩탎,늢쟒틔헢벸룶쒣랽뗄닟싔랴펦ꆣ웳튵횮볤뗄헢훖닟싔뮥뚯뿉쓜쫇탍캪쟐죫뗣,럖컶FDI닺짺뗄쳵볾벰웳튵횮볤뗄쯼쏇뷸탐뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄훘튪뻶뚨틲쯘ꆣ20쫀볍닟싔뮥뚯뛔FDI뗄펰쿬ꆣ컒쏇붫믡뾴떽,벴쪹뒫80쓪듺틔살,맺볊춶쇬폲훐닟싔탔FDI(뛔췢춳뗄뿧맺릫쮾샭싛쯹뷒쪾뗄FDI뚯틲(슢뛏폅횱뷓춶)쿖쿳풽살풽쏷쿔ꆣ헢샠춶늻쫇틔훷쇷쫆)늻듦퓚,솽맺뎧짌횮볤뗄췪좫탅쾢뺲첬늩?ꆢ폅쫆샭싛쯹뷒쪾뗄뫏샭삩헅탔캪뚯틲,뛸쫇틔닟늻췪좫탅쾢뺲첬늩?뫍췪좫탅쾢뚯첬늩?튲쓜듙싔탔뚯믺캪틀뻝,웤샭싛놳뺰쫇붨솢퓚늩?럖컶돉FDIꆣ퓚헻룶늩?맽돌훐,튻룶뎧짌쫇럱뷸탐뗄믹뒡짏뗄ꆣFDI탎돉뿧맺뺭펪,붫폫쇭튻뎧짌뗄탐캪틔벰평퓚럖컶뿧맺릫쮾FDI탐캪쪱,펦룃돤럖뾼싇듋탎돉뗄샻죳뛔뇈폐맘ꆣ늻춬뿧맺릫쮾횮볤뗄뺺헹폫닟싔붻뮥탐캪,늩?싛캪퇐뺿뎧짌뗄쫐뎡탐캪쳡릩쇋솼뫃뗄쒣탍놳뺰ꆣꆡꆡ3십퇇쏷ꆢ헅퇒맳:쓏뾪듳톧맺볊뺭볃퇐뺿쯹ꆡ300071ꆡ뗧뮰:022-23504849ꆡ뗧ퟓ탅쿤:ma-yaming@ꆣSmith(1987)폃솽뷗뛎늩?쒣탍뾼달쇋FDIꋙ훷쇷폅쫆샭싛냼삨몣쒬뗄슢뛏폅쫆샭싛뫍뗋쓾뗄헛훔샭쯹웰뗄닟싔탔ퟷ폃ꆪꆪ뷸죫뛴훆;G싛,쯼쏇퓚뿧맺릫쮾샭싛훐햼폐훘튪뗄뗘캻,잰헟캪뾪뒴탔뗄뿧raham(1990ꆢ맺릫쮾샭싛,뫳헟퓲놻컷랽톧쫵뷧쫓캪뿧맺릫쮾뗄ꆰ춨싛ꆱꆣ1996ꆢ1998)폃쮫춷슢뛏쒣탍솿뮯쇋ꆰ붻뮻췾킲ꆱ탍쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2002쓪뗚4웚ꆡꆤ38ꆤ' 1995-2003 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
십퇇쏷ꆡ헅퇒맳ꆡꆡ램쫇:붫q22뫍q21쫓캪뎣쫽(틲뛸짏쫶솽쪽훐뗄캢뛾ꆢ췪좫탅쾢뺲첬늩?쳵볾쿂뗄럖쿮쿻쪧)ꆣ퓚헢룶볙뚨쿂,뿉틔쟳돶뎧짌1뫍2뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄닺솿럖뇰캪:q21=(a2-2c1+c2)ö3b2ꆡꆡ뾼싇솽룶맺볒1뫍2뗄쒳닺욷쫐뎡럖뇰폐튻q22=(a2-2c2+c1)ö3b2(4)볒뎧짌1뫍2,볙짨솽맺볤늻듦퓚쎳틗ꋚꆣ퓚쿂쇐짏쫶뻹뫢닺솿쫇퓚ꆰ맅억췆닢ꆱ뗄볙뚨쿂뛸뗃쒣탍훐,죧맻뇤솿횻폐튻룶쿂뇪쪱,퓲룃쿂뇪횸쫐떽뗄맅억뻹뫢뷢,죝틗횤쏷맅억뻹뫢뗄쫇쓉쪲뻹뎡뗄맺뇰,죧p1쫇횸맺볒1쫐뎡뗄볛룱ꆣ죧맻뇤뫢ꆣ퓚헢룶뻹뫢쿂,뎧짌1퓚맺볒2뗄쫐뎡짏좡솿폐솽룶쿂뇪,퓲뗚튻룶쿂뇪횸쫐뎡뗄맺뇰,뗚뛾뗄샻죳캪:룶쿂뇪횸뎧짌,샽죧p21캪뎧짌1뗄닺욷퓚맺볒22021=(a2-4a2c1+2a2c2+42c1+2c2-4c1c2)ö9b2(5)뗄쫐뎡짏뗄볛룱ꆣ돵쪼,솽볒뎧짌뻹쫇놾맺쫐뎡짏헢샯맘볼뗄컊쳢쫇:볙뚨뎧짌1뷸죫맺볒2뗄슢뛏헟,쟒뚼쏦쇙쿟탔뗄랴탨쟳몯쫽:pi=ai-뗄쫐뎡,뎧짌2뿉쓜뗄랴펦믡퓵퇹?퓚헢훖랴펦biqi(i=1,2)ꆣ퓚놾맺쫐뎡짏,쯼쏇ퟮ듳뮯룷ퟔ뗄쿂,뎧짌1쓜볌탸햼폐맺볒2뗄쫐뎡럝뛮싰?쫂쪵샻죳,럖뇰톡퓱닺솿qi=(ai-ci)ö2bi(i=1,2),늢짏뎧짌1뷸죫맺볒2뗄쫐뎡,쯼뻍뛡ퟟ쇋뎧짌2럖뇰믱좡샻죳20i=(ai-ci)ö4bi(i=1,2)ꆣ웤훐c1뗄튻늿럖슢뛏ퟢ,ퟷ캪뛔듋뗄랴펦,뎧짌2뿉쓜믡뫍c2럖뇰캪뎧짌1뫍2뗄뇟볊돉놾,쟒싺ퟣc1<뷸죫맺볒1뗄쫐뎡,퓚쓇샯폫뎧짌1쪵탐맅억뺺c2(틲듋뎧짌1쿠뛔폚뎧짌2폐폅쫆,떫뎧짌2쿠헹ꆣ죧맻헢랢짺뗄뮰,뎧짌2퓚맺볒1쫐뎡짏뗄샻뛔폚뎧짌1퓲쎻폐폅쫆)ꆣ룹뻝훷쇷뿧맺릫쮾샭죳붫캪:싛,평폚c1<c2,뎧짌1죏캪죧맻쯼뛔맺볒2뷸탐012=2(a1-4a1c2+22a1c1+4c2+2c1-4c1c2)ö9b1(6)횱뷓춶,붫믡뇈뎧짌2뺭펪뗃룼폐킧싊,틲듋,횻튪c2<1ö2(a1+c1)(놣횤012캪헽),뎧짌2뻍폐뎧짌1폐쟖죫맺볒2쫐뎡뗄뚯믺뫍쟣쿲ꆣ죴뎧짌뷸죫맺볒1쫐뎡뗄폕틲ꆣ퓚쓜믱좡헽샻죳뗄쳵볾1맻헦뷸죫맺볒2뗄쫐뎡,붫믱좡샻죳:쿂,뎧짌2뛔뎧짌1뷸죫쒸맺쫐뎡뗄ퟮ쫊랴펦쫇021=2-b2(q21+q22q21)+(a2-c1)q21(1)뷸죫맺볒1뗄쫐뎡ꆣ뛸쟒,뾼싇떽뎧짌2뗄FDI샻죳ퟮ듳뮯뗄튻뷗쳵볾캪:5021ö5q21=0,평듋뿉뮹뿉틔웰떽ꆰ붻뮻췾킲ꆱ뗄ퟷ폃,벴쪹012캪뢺,뎧뗃뎧짌1뗄랴펦몯쫽캪:짌2뗄FDI튲뿉쓜쫇샭탔뗄ꆣ뎧짌2뗄ꆰ랴쿲뷸-b2q21(2+5q22ö5q21+q22)+(a2-c1)=0(2)죫ꆱ(counter2entry)쫇뛔뎧짌1욫샫뫏ퟷ(벴쿠뮥헻샭뿉뗃:늻쟖랸뛔랽뗄슢뛏뗘캻)뗄ꆰ돍랣닟싔ꆱ,헢훖닟싔1쫇ퟓ늩?췪쏀ꆣ(a2-c1)-q22b2q21=(3)ퟛ뫏짏쫶쓚죝뿉횪,퓚뎧짌2뗄뺺헹뛔쫖틑(2+a5q22ö5q21)헢룶랴펦몯쫽쫇튻룶맘폚쿈웚쟖죫쒸맺쫐뎡뗄쟩뿶쿂,횻튪뷸죫맺볒1뗄q22뗄캢럖랽돌,떫쯼폐솽룶캴횪쫽쫐뎡쓜좡헽뗄샻죳,뎧짌2뻍폐뿉쓜뷸탐FDIꆣq22뫍q21ꆣq22쫇뎧짌2뛔뎧짌1닺솿뗄췆닢벴쪹뎧짌2쎻폐슢뛏폅쫆(헢뇭쿖퓚c2>c1),튲(conjectured)랴펦몯쫽ꆣ캪좷뚨뻹뫢뷢,뮹뇘탫춬쪱룸돶뎧짌1뗄랴펦몯쫽,폫짏쫶샠쫇죧듋,틲뛸슢뛏폅쫆늻쫇뎧짌뷸탐FDI뗄뇘튪쯆뗄랽램뿉뗃뎧짌1뗄랴펦몯쫽캪쳵볾ꆣ죧맻뎧짌2맻헦뛔맺볒1뷸탐뛔췢횱뷓춶:,퓲뎧짌1뻍믡쪧좥퓚쒸맺쫐뎡짏뗄슢뛏샻죳,1(a2-c1)-q21b뛸횻쓜좡맅억샻죳뗄튻늿럖;죧맻뎧짌1퓚맺2q22=(3b)(2+5q21ö5q22)랽돌(3a)뫍(3b)죔좻늻뿉뷢,웤훐캢럖쿮랴펳쇋ꋚ평폚퓋쫤럑폃뫍맘쮰뗄듦퓚,쪹뗃돶뿚쎳틗뛔맺췢쫐뎡뎧짌닺솿뗄쿠뮥췆닢뇤뚯,떫헢훖췆닢뇤뚯쎻폐뗄째춸ퟷ폃늻죧뛔췢횱뷓춶,쯹틔퓚쒣탍훐,컒쏇볙뚨뎧짌퓚틔쿔탔뗄탎쪽룸돶ꆣ뒦샭짏쫶컊쳢뗄튻룶뇪ힼ랽톡퓱죫쟖뛔랽쫐뎡뗄쫖뛎쪱,늻믡톡퓱돶뿚쎳틗ꆣ쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2002쓪뗚4웚ꆡꆤ39ꆤ' 1995-2003 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
ꆡꆡ맑춷뺺헹ꆢ닟싔뮥뚯폫뛔췢횱뷓춶볒2쫐뎡짏뗄(맅억뻹뫢)샻죳캴뎬맽쯼퓚쒸맺쫐b21212뎡뗄샻죳쯰쪧,쓇쎴쯼뻍늻믡뷸죫맺볒[(a1-c1)-(a1-2c1+c2)]2뗄쫐뎡ꆣΘcb149=벴쪹퓚뎧짌121틑뺭뷸죫놾맺쫐뎡뗄쟩뿶쿂,뎧짌(a2-2c1+c2)92뗄횱뷓춶튲쓜뛔쒸맺쫐뎡뗄샻틦웰떽튻뚨뗄b2놣뮤ퟷ폃ꆣ샽죧,뿉틔복짙뎧짌1퓚쒸맺쫐뎡짏뷸=ꆤ52a1-2a1c1-72c1-42c2+8c2(2c1-a1)<14b1(a2-222c1)+c2-4c1c2+2a2c2탐싓뛡탔뚨볛뗄뿉쓜ꆣ뛔뎧짌1살쮵,쯼쫇럱ퟶ돶(7b)FDI뻶닟,좡뻶폚뛔뎧짌2ퟮ병랴펦닟싔뗄맀볆Θc쫇뎧짌1쫇럱ퟶ돶뛔췢횱뷓춶뻶닟뗄맘틔벰퓚뎧짌2좷쪵톡퓱쇋ퟮ병랴펦닟싔뗄쟩뿶볼틲쯘ꆣ죧맻짏쪽돉솢,퓲벴쪹뎧짌2뷸죫놾맺쫐쿂,FDI뮹쫇럱캪ퟮ폅닟싔?튻떩붫뎧짌2뗄랴펦뎡,뎧짌1튲믡뷸탐맺볊삩헅ꋛꆣ평(7b)쪽뿉횪,Θc쓉죫뻶닟훐,벴쪹뎧짌1뻟폐슢뛏폅쫆(뇭쿖캪뷏폫솽룶맺볒뗄쫐뎡맦쒣(a1,a2)뫍쫐뎡탨쟳뗄쿠뗍뗄뇟볊돉놾),튲늻튻뚨뷸탐FDIꆣ틲듋,슢뛏폅뛔ힴ뿶(b1öb2)벰솽뎧짌뗄돉놾(c1,c2)폐맘,틲듋,쫆늻쫇FDI뗄돤럖쳵볾ꆣ죧맻붫뎧짌1뫍2횮볤쯼쏇뚼쫇펰쿬뎧짌1뛔췢횱뷓춶뻶닟뗄훘튪틲뗄늩?삩햹떽컞쿞듎훘뢴늩?뗄쟩탎,컒쏇뻍뿉쯘ꆣ샽죧,a1풽듳,퓲뎧짌1뷸탐FDI뗄뿉쓜탔풽틔룼뫃뗘샭뷢헢튻뗣ꆣ룹뻝컞쏻쫏뚨샭,퓚컞쿞듎킡;a2풽듳,퓲뎧짌1뛔맺볒2뷸탐춶뗄믽벫탔훘뢴늩?훐,늩?쮫랽믡닉좡뒥랢닟싔(trigger풽듳;b1öb2뗄뇈횵풽킡,벴맺볒1쫐뎡뗄탨쟳쿠strategy),듓뛸떼훂뫏ퟷ뻹뫢뷡맻ꆣ듋쪱죧맻뎧짌뛔폚맺볒2쫐뎡탨쟳풽듳,퓲뎧짌1뛔맺볒2춶1욫샫뫏ퟷ톡퓱FDI,쓇쎴뎧짌2믡퓚틔뫳뗄룷뗄뿉쓜탔풽킡ꋜꆣ뷗뛎늩?훐튲톡퓱FDI뛔뎧짌1뷸탐돍랣ꆣ틲평짏뿉횪,슢뛏폅쫆볈늻쫇FDI뗄돤럖쳵듋,뎧짌1뫍2돶폚뛔뎤웚샻틦뗄뾼싇,뚼믡놣돖볾,튲늻쫇FDI뗄뇘튪쳵볾,떫쯼죔쫇펰쿬FDIퟣ릻뗄쓍탄뮥늻쟖랸뛔랽쫐뎡,쪹뗃뎧짌1뫍뎧뗄훘튪틲쯘ꆣ춨맽럖컶c2폫c1뗄뇤뮯뛔뎧짌1뫍짌2뻹늻뷸탐FDI돉캪룃컞쿞듎훘뢴늩?뗄쓉2뷸탐FDI뗄펰쿬,뿉틔쟥돾뗘뾴떽헢튻뗣ꆣ뛔Θc쪲뻹뫢ꆣ뺡맜뎧짌1뗄뇟볊돉놾뗍폚뎧짌2뗄뇟뗄럖ퟓ뫍럖쒸럖뇰맘폚c2쟳캢럖뿉뗃:볊돉놾,듦퓚뷸탐FDI뗄뚯믺뫍쟣쿲,떫퓚컞쿞mc5(011-011)ö5c2=k1(-c2+2c1-a1)듎훘뢴늩?훐,뎧짌1뮹쫇믡춣쇴퓚놾맺쫐뎡짏c5021ö5c2=k2(c2-2c1+a2)(8a)믱좡슢뛏샻죳,뛸늻믡뷸탐뛔췢횱뷓춶ꆣ헢샯k1,k2캪헽뗄뎣쫽ꆣ틲캪c1<1ö2(c2+퓚짏쏦뗄럖컶훐,틾몬쇋튻룶볙짨:뫏ퟷ닟싔a2),쟒c1<1ö2(c2+a1),쯹틔평짏쏦뗄솽룶쪽ퟓퟩ뫏(늻뷸탐FDI,늻뷸탐FDI)쿠뛔폚욫샫뫏ퟷ솢벴뿉횪,뗄닟싔ퟩ뫏A=mc5(011-011)ö5c2<0c,쟒B=5021ö(FDI,FDI)살쮵쫇엁샛췐룄뷸ꆣ죧맻헢튻볙짨늻돉솢,퓲늻싛뎧짌5c2>0ꆣ헢틢캶ퟅ,5Θcö5c2=m\[Ac021-B(011-2뗄ퟮ병랴펦닟싔c2죧뫎011)]öc(021)<0,맊c2풽듳,뎧짌1뷸탐FDI뗄,뎧짌1뚼폐뷸탐뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄뚯믺ꆣ쿔좻,횻튪뎧짌1뷸탐뛔췢횱뷓춶뫳퓚맺볒2뗄뿉쓜탔풽듳ꆣ뛔뎧짌2뛸퇔,5012ö5c2=\[8c2-4(a1쫐뎡짏쯹믱뗃뗄맅억뻹뫢샻죳,듳폚틲뎧짌+c1)]ö9b1<0,틲뛸뎧짌2뗄돉놾풽룟,쯼뛔맺볒2뷸탐뛔췢횱뷓춶뫳웤퓚쒸맺쫐뎡짏쯹즥쪧뗄슢뛏샻죳ꋛ평듋뿉횪,뎧짌닟싔뛔FDI뗄펰쿬쫇폐쿞뗄ꆣ퓚쒳킩쟩,벴폐mc:011-011<c021,쯼뻍믡ퟶ돶뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄뻶닟ꆣ헢샯,짏뇪m뇭쪾슢뛏,c뇭쪾맅억뿶쿂,쯼뿉틔쫇뷸탐FDI뗄샭평,떫쯼늻뿉쓜쫇뻶뚨탔뗄ꆣ뎧짌쓜뻹뫢럱돉릦뗘뷸탐FDI,훕뺿뮹쫇튪쫜떽ퟔ짭쪵솦뫍쫐뎡탨쟳쟩뿶뗄,짏쪽뿉뗈볛뗘뇤캪:펰쿬ꆣ죧맻뎧짌2폫뎧짌1뗄닮뻠첫듳,퓲쯼뗄닟싔랴펦뻍늻믡Θc=(0m11-0c11)ö0c21<1(7a)펰쿬뎧짌1뗄탐캪ꆣ붫짏쪽햹뾪뿉뗃:ꋜ헢쫇틲캪,5Θcöb1b25()=2-b24b2ꆤ15a21-2a1c1-7c21-4c22+8c2(2c1-a1)<0(a2-2c1)2+c22-4c1c2+2a2c2쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2002쓪뗚4웚ꆡꆤ40ꆤ' 1995-2003 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
십퇇쏷ꆡ헅퇒맳ꆡꆡ1뷸탐FDI뗄뿉쓜탔풽킡ꆣ헢샯Ht=a2-c2믲Lt=a2-c2ꆣ뎧짌1늻횪뗀뛔012맘폚c1쟳떼폐:5012ö5c1=2(a1+c1-뎧짌2뗄헦쪵돉놾,틲뛸튲늻횪뗀뎧짌2좷쟐뗄2c2)ö9b1>0,틲듋,c1풽듳,FDI풽폐뿉쓜돉캪뎧랴펦몯쫽ꆣퟷ캪샭탔뻶닟헟,뎧짌1믡톡퓱q21틔짌2뗄ퟮ병랴펦닟싔ꆣ쿂쏦럖컶c1뛔뎧짌1뷸탐ퟮ듳뮯쿂쇐웚췻샻죳몯쫽:FDI뻶닟뗄펰쿬ꆣ뛔ΘC맘폚c1쟳캢럖뿉뗃:E021=Ηq21[a2-b2(q21+3Hq22(c2))-c1]5Θcö5c1=2(2c1a1a2-5a1a2-212c1a2-122c2a2++(13L-Η)q21[a2-b2(q21+q22(c2))-c1](11)30c1c2a2+10c1a1+4c1a1a2-212c1c2-18c1c2a1-뷢ퟮ폅뮯뗄튻뷗쳵볾뗃뎧짌1뗄랴펦몯쫽52c2a1-42c2+152c1c2+922c2a1-8c2a2+722c1a2+a1a2+캪:22c32a1)öc(021)(8b)q21={Η3H3[a2-q22(c2)-c1\]+(1-Η)[a2-q22짏쪽뗄럻뫅뿉틔캪헽,튲뿉틔캪뢺ꆣ틲듋,c1뛔뎧L(c2)-c1\]}ö2b2짌1뷸탐뛔췢횱뷓춶뻶닟뗄펰쿬쫇늻좷뚨ꆡ=(a2-c1-Eq22)ö2b2(12)뗄ꋝꆣ헢쫇틲캪c1풽킡,퓚맺볒2쫐뎡짏믱좡뗄맅헢샯Eq22=Η3Hq21(c2)+(1-Η3L)q22(c2),쫇뎧짌억샻죳풽듳,떫춬쪱퓚쒸맺쫐뎡짏즥쪧뗄샻죳튲1뛔뎧짌2닺솿뗄웚췻ꆣ볙짨b1=b2=1,뷢평풽듳,뎧짌1탨튪퓚헢솽룶샻죳횮볤뷸탐좨뫢ꆣ(10)쪽뫍(12)쪽ퟩ돉뗄랽돌ퟩ,뿉횪솽뎧짌뗄닺죽ꆢ늻췪좫탅쾢뺲첬늩?쳵볾쿂뗄솿럖뇰캪:뛔췢횱뷓춶3Hq22(c2)=(a2-2Hc2+c1)ö3+HL(1-Η)(c2-c2)ö63Lꆡꆡ퓚짏튻킡뷚뗄쒣탍훐,컒쏇볙뚨탅쾢쫇췪좫q22(c2)=(a2-2LLc2+c1)ö3-ΗH(c2-c2)ö63L뗄ꆣ떫쫂쪵짏,헢룶볙짨늻튻뚨돉솢ꆣ샽죧,뎧짌q22(c2)=L(a1-2c2+c1)ö3L-ΗH(c2-c2)ö6(13)평듋,뷸튻늽뿉횪뎧짌1퓚맺볒2쫐뎡짏믱1뿉쓜늻횪뗀뎧짌2좷쟐뗄돉놾ꆣ볙뚨뎧짌1뗄뇟볊돉놾c1쫇릲춬횪쪶,뎧짌2뗄뇟볊돉놾뿉쓜뗃뗄웚췻샻죳캪:E3쫇HL021=3q21(a2-q21-c1-Eq22)c2튲뿉쓜쫇Hc2,쟒Lc2<c2;뎧짌2횪뗀ퟔ벺뗄돉놾쫇Hc2뮹쫇Lc2;떫뎧짌1횻횪뗀뎧짌2뇟볊돉=2\[a-2c1+Lc2+ΗHL(c2-c2)]ö9(14)놾캪Hퟷ캪뛔듋뗄랴펦,뎧짌2뿉쓜믡뷸죫맺볒1c2뗄룅싊ΗL,뇟볊돉놾캪c2뗄룅싊쫇1-Η;Η쫇릲춬횪쪶ꆣ웤훐뗄쫐뎡ꆣ죧맻뎧짌2뛔맺볒1춶,퓲폃짏쫶샠쯆,c1<ΗHc2+(1-ΗL)c2,떫c1>Lc2(뎧짌2뿉쓜룕룕랢쏷튻쿮탂뗄짺닺벼쫵뗄랽램,뿉뗃떽쯼럖뇰캪룟돉놾뫍뗍돉놾쪱,퓚맺)ꆣ평폚볒1쫐뎡짏믱좡뗄샻죳:c1<ΗHc2+(1-ΗL)c2,뎧짌1풤웚ퟔ벺뇈뎧짌2룼폐킧싊,틲듋쯼폐쟖죫맺볒H2쫐뎡뗄뚯012(c2)=H\[(a1-2c2+c1)+1ö2H(1-Η)(c2-믺뫍쟣쿲ꆣ떱랢짺횱뷓춶뫳,뎧짌1뫍뎧짌2뷸L2c2)]ö9탐뺲첬놴튶쮹늩?ꆣ폃3Hq22(c2)뫍3Lq22(c2)럖뇰뇭쪾0L12(c2)=\[(a1-2Lc2+c1)-Ηö2HL2(c2-c2)]ö9(15)뎧짌2뗄뇟볊돉놾캪HLc2뫍c2쪱퓚쒸맺쫐뎡짏뗄횻튪쿂쇐늻뗈쪽돉솢:닺솿3;q21(c1)뇭쪾뎧짌1퓚맺볒2쫐뎡짏뗄떥튻4HHLc2-(1-Η)(c2-c2)<2(a1+c1)(16)닺솿톡퓱ꆣ뛔늻춬뗄돉놾ힴ뿶,뎧짌2믡럖뇰톡퓱쓇쎴3HH,q12(c2)뫍3q12(c2)뻍듳폚0ꆣ평(15)쪽컒쏇뷸3H3Lq22(c2)뫍q22(c2)틔ퟮ듳뮯쿂쇐샻죳몯쫽:튻늽뿉틔췆뗃H:012(c2)>0,0L12(c2)>0ꆣ평폚쓜0H3H22=\[a2-b2(q21+q22)-c2]q22좡뛮췢샻죳,틲뛸,듋쪱뛔맺볒1뷸탐FDI쫇뎧0L322=\[a2-b2(q21+Lq22)-c2]q22(9)짌2뗄닟싔톡퓱ꆣ쿔좻,Η풽킡,벴뎧짌1죏캪뎧평ퟮ폅뮯뗄튻뷗쳵볾뿉뗃뎧짌2뗄랴펦몯쫽캪:ꋝ뒫춳샭싛죏캪,뎧짌뗄돉놾풽킡,뷸탐FDI뗄뿉쓜탔풽31듳ꆣ틲듋,헢샯뗄뷡싛폫뒫춳샭싛늻춬ꆣ헢룶컊쳢횮쯹틔돶쿖,맘q22(q21;t)=(t-b2q21)(10)2b2볼퓚폚뒫춳샭싛뫶싔쇋뺺헹뛔쫖탐캪쯹닺짺뗄췢늿탔ꆣ쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2002쓪뗚4웚ꆡꆤ41ꆤ' 1995-2003 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
ꆡꆡ맑춷뺺헹ꆢ닟싔뮥뚯폫뛔췢횱뷓춶짌2뗄뇟볊돉놾캪Hc2뗄룅싊풽킡,(16)쪽풽죝틗벺뗄닺솿,틲듋,헢쫇튻룶췪쏀탅쾢뗄뚯첬늩?ꆣ싺ퟣ,뎧짌2튲뻍풽폐뿉쓜뷸탐FDIꆣ틲듋,뎧짌솽뎧짌죔쏦쇙쿟탔뗄랴탨쟳몯쫽:pi=ai-qi(좡2뗄FDI뻶닟폫뎧짌1뛔쯼뗄돉놾움볛폐맘ꆣ죧bi=1쫇캪쇋볲뮯퓋쯣)ꆣ컒쏇놣쇴c1<c2헢튻볙맻뎧짌2캪룟돉놾뎧짌,퓲퓚탅쾢췪좫뗄쟩뿶쿂,짨늻뇤,틲뛸뎧짌1죔좻듦퓚뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄뚯뎧짌2뿉쓜늻믡뷸탐뛔췢횱뷓춶(죧떱쳵볾Hc2믺ꆣ죧맻뎧짌1맻헦뛔맺볒2춶,퓲뎧짌1붫톡<1ö2(a1+c1)늻싺ퟣ쪱)ꆣ떫떱탅쾢늻췪좫쪱,뎧퓱q21,쪹횮싺ퟣ:짌1뿉쓜늢늻횪쿾뎧짌2캪룟돉놾뎧짌,뛸쫇죏max021(q21,q21)=maxq21(a2-q21-q22-c1)(18)캪뎧짌2캪룟돉놾뗄룅싊캪Η,듋쪱,횻튪Η싺ퟣ평ퟮ폅뮯뗄튻뷗쳵볾뿉뗃,뎧짌1뛔뎧짌2(16)쪽,뎧짌2뻍폐뿉쓜뛔맺볒1춶ꆣ틲듋,탅틑맛닢떽뗄닺솿뗄헦쪵랴펦캪:쾢뗄늻췪좫퓶듳쇋뎧짌2뷸탐FDI뗄뿉쓜탔ꆣ1R1(q22)=(a2-q22-c1)(19)평듋뿉볻,폫췪좫탅쾢늩?쳵볾쿂튻퇹2,쯤좻뎧짌2쎻폐돉놾폅쫆틲캪뎧짌2뿉틔풤닢뎧짌1퓚놾맺쫐뎡짏뗄L(c1<ΗHc2+(1-Η)c2),떫퓚뎧짌1쟖죫놾맺쫐뎡뗄쟩탎쿂,돶폚닟싔뺺헹뗄닺솿톡퓱,쯹틔퓚늩?뗄뗚튻뷗뛎,뎧짌2뗄컊쳢뾼싇뿉뇭쪾캪:,쯼죔좻폐뿉쓜뛔맺볒1뷸탐뛔췢횱뷓춶ꆣ뛸쟒,탅쾢뗄늻뛔돆죵뮯쇋뎧짌2뗄돉놾쇓쫆,퓶max22(q22,R1(q22))=maxq22ꇝ00q22ꇝq22[a2-q22-R10듳쇋뎧짌2뷸탐폐킧닟싔랴펦뗄뿕볤,틲뛸튲뻍(q22)-c2](20)쪹뎧짌2룼폐뿉쓜ퟶ돶뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄뻶닟ꆣ뾼뷢튻뷗쳵볾뗃s1:q22=(a2-2c2+c1),붫sq22싇떽뎧짌2뗄닟싔랴펦,뎧짌1ퟝ좻폐돉놾폅쫆2,튲늻룒쟡틗ퟶ돶듺죫(19s1)쪽뗃:q21=(a2+2c2-3c1)FDI뻶닟,폈웤쫇뛔뎧짌2뗄돉4놾몯쫽늻쟥돾뗄쟩뿶쿂,룼늻룒쟡뻙췽뚯ꆣ퓚헢룶뻹뫢쿂,뎧짌1퓚맺볒2뗄쫐뎡짏떫떱쿂쇐늻뗈쪽m0좡뗄샻죳캪:11-E011<E021돉솢쪱,컞싛뎧짌2닉좡쪲쎴닟싔,뎧짌1뻹믡뷸탐FDs12I,021=(a2+2c2-3c1)(21)벴듋쪱뎧짌162뗄닟싔랴펦늻쓜ퟳ폒뎧짌1뗄탐캪웤훐,S뇭쪾쮹첹뿋뛻늮룱뻹뫢ꆣퟷ캪뛔듋뗄뻶닟ꆣ쇮Θ=m(011-E011)öE021,붫웤햹뾪뿉틔뗃랴펦,뎧짌2뿉쓜믡뷸죫맺볒1뗄쫐뎡,퓚쓇샯폫떽:뎧짌1뷸탐쮹첹뿋뛻늮룱뺺헹ꆣ죧맻뎧짌2뷸탐Θ92(a1-c1)-4(a1-2c1+Lc2+ΗHL2(c2-c2))=)FDI,퓲쯼퓚맺볒1쫐뎡짏뗄샻죳뇭듯붫캪:4\[a2-2c1+Lc2+ΗHL2(17(c2-c2)]쿔좻,5Θö5Η<0,벴폐Η풽듳,Θ풽킡ꆣ틲듋,뎧s1012=(a1+2c1-32c2)(22)16짌1죏캪뎧짌2쫇룟돉놾뎧짌뗄룅싊풽듳,Θ<1횻튪s012>0,뎧짌2뻍폐뷸탐FDI뗄뚯믺ꆣ풽죝틗싺ퟣ,뎧짌1쟖죫맺볒2뗄뿉쓜탔튲뻍풽뛸헢횻탨튪c2<1ö2(a1+c1)돉솢벴뿉,헢룶쳵볾듳ꆣ평(17)쪽뿉횪,돽Η췢,Θ뮹폫쫐뎡맦쒣ꆢ뎧짌폫맅억뺺헹쪱뗄쳵볾췪좫쿠춬ꆣ떫평폚S012<C012,돉놾뗈폐맘,폃짏튻킡뷚샠쯆뗄랽램,컒쏇뻍뿉틔쯹틔폫맅억뺺헹뗄쟩탎쿠뇈,뎧짌2뷸탐FDI뗄럖컶쯼쏇뛔뎧짌1뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄펰쿬ꆣ뚯믺폐쯹복죵ꆣ헢쫇틲캪뎧짌2퓚늩?훐펵폐뗄쯄ꆢ췪좫탅쾢뚯첬늩?쳵볾쿂뗄탅쾢폅쫆(뎧짌2횪뗀q11)랴뛸쪹웤퓚뺺헹훐뒦폚뛔췢횱뷓춶쇓쫆,뎧짌1퓲틲믱뗃ꆰ쿈뚯폅쫆ꆱ(First2moveradvantage)뛸쪹웤뺺헹폅쫆뗃떽뷸튻늽잿뮯ꆣꆡꆡ쿖퓚컒쏇뷸튻늽럅쯉볙짨,볙뚨뎧짌1뫍2뾼싇떽뎧짌2뗄랴펦,뎧짌1뻍늻룒쎳좻뷸횮볤뷸탐뗄늻쫇맅억뺺헹,뛸쫇쮹첹뿋뛻늮룱뺺탐FDIꆣ샽죧,죧맻뎧짌1뛔췢횱뷓춶뫳,퓚맺헹ꆣ뎧짌퓚놾맺쫐뎡쫇쇬떼헟,쯼쫗쿈톡퓱닺솿,볒2믱뗃뗄쮹첹뿋뛻늮룱뻹뫢샻죳킡폚틲뎧짌2췢맺뎧짌(룺쯦헟)퓚맛달떽쯼뗄닺솿뫳퓙톡퓱ퟔ뛔췢횱뷓춶뫳쪹웤퓚쒸맺즥쪧뗄슢뛏샻죳,퓲쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2002쓪뗚4웚ꆡꆤ42ꆤ' 1995-2003 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
십퇇쏷ꆡ헅퇒맳ꆡꆡ뎧짌1뻍뿉쓜늻뷸탐FDIꆣ떫죧맻헢룶쳵볾늻돉늻췪좫탅쾢뺲첬늩?뫍췪좫탅쾢뚯첬늩?뗄쟩솢m,벴폐S011-011<S021,퓲늻싛뎧짌2뗄랴펦닟탎ꆣ떫헢킩늻쫇쒣탍뗄좫늿쓚몭뫍췢퇓,쒣탍훁짙싔죧뫎,뎧짌1뚼폐뷸탐FDI뗄뚯믺ꆣ쇮ΘS=뮹뿉틔퓚틔쿂솽룶랽쏦뷸탐삩햹:(1)퓚놾컄뗄쒣mSS(011-011)ö021,늢햹뾪뗃:탍훐,닺욷쫇춬훊뗄,뎧짌1뫍2뷸탐뗄쫇쫽솿뺺121헹ꆣ죧맻틽죫닺욷뗄닮틬탔,퓲뿉틔붫쒣탍삩햹떽(a1-c1)-(a1-2c1+2c2)ΘS48=(23)볛룱뺺헹뗄쟩탎,죧뾼싇Betrand뻹뫢;떱좻,평1(a2-3c1+22c2)16폚뎧짌톡퓱뗄닟싔뇤솿뗄룄뇤,뻹뫢뷡맻뿉쓜믡평(7b)쪽뿉횪,퓚췪좫탅쾢뺲첬늩?뗄쟩탎랢짺뫜듳뗄뇤뮯ꆣ(2)퓚췢맺뎧짌뷸죫틔잰,뎧짌쿂,쿠펦뗄뫢솿뎧짌1뷸탐FDI뚯믺뗄닎쫽캪1뫍2뻹캪놾맺쫐뎡짏뗄슢뛏헟,떫쫂쪵짏,퓚뿧(좡b1=b2=1):맺릫쮾뷸죫잰,듳뛠쫽뚫뗀맺뗄쫐뎡뚼듦퓚짙쫽1212뎧짌뗄맑춷슢뛏쫐뎡,뛸늻쫇떥튻뎧짌슢뛏뗄쫐(a1-c1)-(a1-2c1+c2)Θc49=(24)뎡ꆣ틲듋,뿉틔붫쒣탍훐솽맺풭폐뗄쫐뎡삩햹캪뛠12(a2-2c1+c2)9맑춷슢뛏쫐뎡ꆣ뛸쟒,떱솽맺풭폐뗄쫐뎡캪맑춷슢쿔좻,ΘS뫍Θc뗄듳킡맘쾵쫇늻좷뚨뗄ꆣ틲듋,떽뗗뛏쪱,쒣탍뗄쓚몭튪럡뢻뗃뛠ꆣ듋쪱,뚫뗀맺뗄뎧퓚쓄튻훖쟩뿶쿂,뎧짌1뷸탐FDI뗄뚯믺듳,튲짌뿉틔뷡돉솪쏋믲뒮쒱살뗖훆췢맺뎧짌뗄죫쟖,쫇늻좷뚨뗄ꆣ폫췪좫탅쾢뺲첬늩?뗄쟩탎쿠뇈,퓚뎧짌횮볤뗄뺺헹맘쾵튲믡뇤뗃룼뢴퓓ꆣ췪좫탅쾢뚯첬늩?쿂,뎧짌1뷸탐FDI뫳퓚맺볒쒣탍뷡싛뇭쏷,믹폚뺺헹뛔쫖탐캪뗄웳튵닟2쫐뎡짏믱좡뗄샻죳뷏킡,떫춬쪱퓚쒸맺쫐뎡짏싔쫇펰쿬FDI뻶닟뗄훘튪틲쯘,슢뛏폅쫆볈늻쫇쯰쪧뗄샻죳튲뷏킡,헢솽랽쏦뗄샻죳탎돉펰쿬뎧FDI뗄돤럖쳵볾,튲늻쫇뇘튪쳵볾,FDI뿉쓜쫇쒳짌1뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄솽막쿠랴뗄솦솿,틲뛸ퟮ훕훖늩?뗄뷡맻ꆣ뛔랢햹훐맺볒뗄듳뛠쫽웳튵살쮵,퓬돉뗄뷡맻쫇늻좷뚨뗄ꆣ쯼쏇쎻폐슢뛏폅쫆ꆣ떫퓚랢듯맺볒뗄뿧맺릫쮾럗떫죧맻뎧짌1퓚솽룶맺볒뗄쫐뎡짏뻹캪쇬떼럗쟖죫랢햹훐맺볒뗄쟩탎쿂,뛔랢듯맺볒뷸탐쓦헟,퓲쟩뿶뻍늻튻퇹쇋ꆣ폃잰쏦샠쯆뗄럖컶랽램,쿲FDI뿉쓜쫇쯼쏇튻훖믽벫뗄펦뛔닟싔ꆣ뿉틔뗃떽뫢솿뎧짌1뛔췢횱뷓춶뚯믺뗄닎쫽,볇캪ΘSSꆣ닎뾼컄쿗:Graham,.(1990):ꆰExchangeofThreatbetween121(a1-c1)-(a1-2c1+2c2)MultinationalFirmsasanInfinitelyRepeatedNoncooperativeΘSS48=(25)1Game.ꆱInternationalTradeJournal,4,(a2-2c1+c2)8ꆪꆪ(1996):ꆰTheNotWhollySatisfactoryStateofthe평(24)쪽뫍(25)쪽뿉횪:ΘSS<Θc,쯹틔,듋쪱뎧짌TheoryofForeignDirectInvestmentandtheMultinational1뛔췢횱뷓춶뗄뚯믺뇈퓚췪좫탅쾢뺲첬늩?쟩Enterprise.ꆱEconomicSystems,20,-206.탎쪱듳ꆣ틲캪듋쪱폫췪좫탅쾢뺲첬늩?쪱쿠뇈,뎧ꆪꆪ(1998):ꆰMarketStructureandtheMultinational짌Enterprise:AGame2theoreticApproach.ꆱJournalof1뷸탐FDI뫳퓚맺볒2뗄쫐뎡짏믱좡뗄샻죳InternationalBusinessStudies,,,-83.뷏듳,뛸퓚쒸맺쫐뎡뗄쯰쪧뷏킡ꆣMotta,M.(1992):ꆰMultinationalFirmsandtheTariff2jumpingArgument:AGameTheoreticApproachwithSome컥ꆢ쒣탍삩햹벰뷡싛UnconventionalConclusions.ꆱEuropeanEconomicReview,36,-1571.놾컄폃늩?싛뗄쮼쿫랽램럖컶쇋맑춷슢뛏쿂Smith,A.(1987):ꆰStrategicInvestment,MultinationalCorporationsandTradePolicy.ꆱEuropeanEconomicReview,웳튵횮볤뗄닟싔뮥뚯뛔뛔췢횱뷓춶뻶닟뗄펰31,-96.쿬ꆣ컒쏇붫췪좫탅쾢뺲첬늩?쳵볾쿂뗄뛔췢횱뷓(뷘룥:2002쓪2퓂ꆡ퓰죎뇠벭:샮풪폱)춶쒣탍ퟷ캪럖컶뗄믹놾쒣탍,좻뫳붫웤삩햹떽쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2002쓪뗚4웚ꆡꆤ43ꆤ' 1995-2003 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
