ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뷰ꆡꆡ쫴ꆡꆡ뿳ꆡꆡ즽MꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡJanuaryꆡ2005ETALMINꆡꆡꆡꆡퟜ뗚343웚E2005쓪뗚1웚훐맺쓜풴쿻럑쪱뿕킧펦럖컶3붪ꆡ캡ꆡ헅ꆡ샗(훐맺뿆톧풺뗘샭뿆톧폫풴퇐뺿쯹)햪ꆡ튪ꆡ뺡맜훐맺쓜풴짺닺붨짨좡뗃쇋뻞듳뗄돉뻍,튻듎쓜풴쿻럑뷡릹폐쇋뫜듳뗄룄짆,떫쫇쓜풴뷡릹ퟷ폃쾵쫽죔좻룟폚쫀뷧욽뻹쮮욽,퓚뷱뫳튻뛎쪱볤쓚훐맺쓜풴쿻럑ퟜ솿뮹믡돖탸퓶뎤ꆣ쓜풴쿻럑뗄쪱볤킧펦럖컶뇭쏷,폫랢듯맺볒쿠춬,평폚듳맦쒣벼쫵ꆢ닺욷뫍맜샭틽뷸쯹닺짺뗄뻞듳뷚쓜킧맻벰쓜풴쿻럑뷡릹퇝뷸뗄볓뿬,훐맺쓜풴쿻럑잿뛈돊쿖쏷쿔뗄떹ꆰUꆱퟖ탍ꆣ퓚뿕볤킧펦랽쏦,뺡맜훐맺쪼훕퓚훂솦폚쳡룟놾쓜풴뗄ퟔ룸쮮욽,떫쫇룟쯙랢햹뗄짧믡뺭볃좴뛔폐쿞뗄풴믹뒡쳡돶쇋풽살풽듳뗄쳴햽ꆣ맘볼듊ꆡ쓜풴쿻럑ꆡ쪱뿕킧펦ꆡ뿉돖탸랢햹Spatial2temporalEffectAnalysisofChinaEnergyConsumptionJiangWeiꆡZhangLei(ChineseAcademyofSciences)AbstractꆡThoughChinahasachievedenormousachievementsinitsenergyproductionconstructionandgreatlyim2provedthestructureofitsprimaryenergyconsumption,,Chinaꆯsenergyconsumptionintensitypresentsanapparentinvert2edꆰUꆱshapeduetotheenormousenergysavingeffectproducedbythelarge2scaleintroductionoftechnology,,thoughChinahasbeenmakinggreateffortstoraisetheself2supplyratioofenergy,ꆡEnergyconsumption,Spatial2temporaleffect,Sustainabledevelopmentꆡꆡ쫀뷧룷맺뗄랢햹쪵볹뇭쏷,맺볒뫍뗘쟸뺭볃랢놶,죋뿚퓶뎤쇋1놶ꆣ듓3헟뗄퓶뎤쟺쿟뇤뮯맽돌햹쯙뛈뗄뿬싽뫍랢듯돌뛈풽살풽쏷쿔뗘좡뻶폚쿖듺뾴,1997쓪틔잰,컒맺짧믡뺭볃랢햹뗄쓜풴쿻럑ꆢ쓜풴릩펦놣헏쾵춳뗄쓜솦뫍붨짨ힴ첬ꆣ샽죧,2000GDP뫍죋뿚죽헟횮볤뻹놣돖ퟅ튻듎쓜풴쿻럑퓶뎤쓪,햼쫀뷧죋뿚12%뗄컷얷뫍놱쏀랢듯맺볒,웤튻>뺭볃ퟜ솿퓶뎤>죋뿚퓶뎤뗄믹놾몯쫽맘쾵ꆣ틔듎쓜풴쿻럑좴햼쇋좫쟲뗄44%\[1ꆢ2\]ꆣퟷ캪쫀뷧짏ퟮ뫳,쯦ퟅ벼쫵틽뷸맦쒣뗄삩듳뫍뷡릹뗷헻솦뛈뗄볓듳뗄랢햹훐맺볒,훐맺뗄뺭볃퓶뎤ꆢ짧믡뷸늽퓚20잿튻듎쓜풴쿻럑뗄퓶뎤닅뾪쪼훰늽복뮺쿂살ꆣ쫀볍쿂냫튶좡뗃뗄뻙쫀훵쒿뗄돉뻍폫훐맺쓜풴뗄잿쫜맺볒릤튵뮯랢햹뷗뛎펰쿬,횱떽20쫀볍90쓪폐솦뗄횧독쫇럖늻뾪뗄ꆣ틲듋,짮죫쇋뷢훐맺쓜풴듺훐웚틔잰,훐맺죋뻹뗄튻듎쓜풴쿻럑뻹놣돖ퟅ뷏뿬쿻럑쪱뿕쳘헷쫇듙뷸맺볒뺭볃컈뚨퓶뎤ꆢ쪵쿖쓜풴퓶뎤(볻춼1)ꆣ듋뫳,퓚뺭볃뷡릹뫍튻듎쓜풴쿻럑뷡뿉돖탸랢햹뗄훘튪춾뺶ꆣ릹뿬쯙뇤뗄ퟷ폃쿂,훐맺죋뻹쓜풴쿻럑뗄쮮욽닅뾪1ꆡ훐맺뗄쓜풴쿻럑쿖ힴ쪼돶쿖쿂붵ꆣ헢훖뇤뮯폫훐맺릤튵뮯랢햹죫훐웚ꆡퟜ쳥쿻럑쳘헷뗄믹놾쳘헷쿠튻훂,죋뻹쓜풴쿻럑쮮욽뗄퓶뎤붫퓚쿠듓20쫀볍50쓪듺돵뾪쪼뗄듳맦쒣릤튵뮯늻뷶떱튻뛎쪱웚쓚틲닺튵뷡릹뗄폅뮯뫍쓜풴쿻럑뷡릹뗄벫듳뗘룄뇤맺볒짺닺쏦쎲,뛸쟒쳡룟쇋맺볒쓜풴쿻럑쮮욽ꆣ1953ꆫ1995쓪웚볤,훐맺튻듎쓜풴쿻럑3맺볒ퟔ좻뿆톧믹뷰(90210037)훺쿮쒿ꆣ퓶뎤쇋24놶,웤훐쎺첿뫍쪯폍뗄쿻럑솿럖뇰퓶뎤쇋붪ꆡ캡(1977-),얮,훐맺뿆톧풺뗘샭뿆톧폫풴퇐뺿쯹,늩쪿퇐뺿18뫍144놶ꆣ폫듋춬쪱,컒맺뗄뺭볃ퟜ솿퓶뎤쇋25짺,100101놱뺩쫐ꆣꆤ65ꆤ' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
ퟜ뗚343웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뷰ꆡꆡ쫴ꆡꆡ뿳ꆡꆡ즽ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2005쓪뗚1웚폅뮯뛸뇭쿖돶퓶뎤동뮺믲쫇쿂붵뗄첬쫆\[3\]ꆣ쿔좻,뷶듓맺볒쓜풴쿻럑뷡릹뗄룄짆ힴ첬폫쓜풴쿻럑ퟜ솿퓶뎤뗄튻냣뇤뮯살에뛏솽헟뗄쿠뮥ퟷ폃뫍펰쿬뮹쿔뗃맽폚듖닚ꆣ캪듋,뫳쏦춨맽뷡릹퇝뷸ퟷ폃쾵쫽뗄랽램뛔솽헟맘쾵벰뇤뮯ퟷ돶룼좷쟐뗄움볛ꆣꆡ뷡릹퇝뷸ퟷ폃잿뛈럖컶헢튻움볛랽램뗄쒿뗄퓚폚쏷쇋쓜풴쿻럑뗄룷ퟩ돉늿럖퓚튻듎쓜풴쿻럑ퟜ솿퓶뎤뫍뇤뮯맽돌훐뗄뻟쳥ퟷ폃ꆣ튻냣죏캪,쓜풴쿻럑뷡릹퇝뷸뗄쯙싊풽뿬,춼1ꆡ훐맺죋뻹튻듎쓜풴쿻럑뇤뮯쪾틢쓜풴쿻럑ퟜ솿뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈펦룃풽싽ꆣ쿔좻,튪횤쪵1953ꆫ1999쓪\[3\]헢튻볙짨,탨튪춨맽뛔뇈늻춬맺볒믲뗘쟸쓜풴쿻럑1-쪯폍;2-쎺첿;3-튻듎쓜풴뷡릹퇝뷸뗄뇤뮯횸쫽,틔벰평듋뇤뮯횸쫽쯹뛔펦뗄ꆡ쿻럑뷡릹뇤뮯쓜풴쿻럑ퟜ솿퓶뎤뇤뮯ꆣ춬퇹뗘,춨맽튻룶맺볒늻쫀뷧룷맺뗄쪵볹뇭쏷,퓚튻뚨짺닺벼쫵쳵볾쿂,춬쪱웚뗄쓜풴쿻럑뷡릹뇤뮯벰웤뛔쓜풴쿻럑ퟜ솿뗄튻듎쓜풴쿻럑뷡릹뗄퇝뷸뛔쿻럑ퟜ솿뗄뇤뮯웰ퟅ뻶펰쿬튲뿉뗃돶쿠춬뷡싛ꆣ뚨탔뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ헢훖쿻럑뷡릹뗄퇝뇤훷튪뇭쿖캪훷떼룹뻝헢튻쓜풴쿻럑뷡릹ퟷ폃쾵쫽뗄믹놾볆쯣릫좼쇏뿳훖뗄룼뗼ꆣ퓚릤튵뮯짧믡훐,헢훖ퟷ폃쫇춨쪽캪맽쪯폍뫍쳬좻웸좡듺쎺첿캪훷뗘캻살쪵쿖뗄ꆣ1953ELc=CL+OL+NL+PL,(1)ꆫ1995쓪웚볤,쫀뷧폫훐맺뗄튻듎쓜풴쿻럑ퟜ솿쪽훐,Ec캪튻듎쓜풴쿻럑ퟜ솿;L캪쓪뻹퓶뎤횸쫽;럖뇰퓶뎤쇋5놶뫍24놶ꆣ퓚듋웚볤,쫀뷧쎺첿쿻럑C캪쎺첿쿻럑솿;O캪쪯폍쿻럑솿;N캪쳬좻웸쿻쯹햼뇈훘쿂붵쇋32럑솿;P캪쮮뗧뫍뫋쓜랢뗧쿻럑솿ꆣ.6%,쪯폍뫍쳬좻웸퓲럖뇰퓶뎤쇋%뫍%(볻춼2)ꆣ뛸훐맺춬웚튻듎쓜1953ꆫ1995쓪,쫀뷧튻듎쓜풴쿻럑ퟜ솿뗄쓪풴쿻럑훐쎺첿쯹햼뇈훘횻쿂붵쇋%,쪯폍뫍쳬뻹퓶뎤횸쫽캪,웤훐쎺첿ꆢ쪯폍ꆢ쳬좻웸뫍쮮좻웸뗄뇈훘퓲럖뇰퓶뎤쇋%뫍%뗧(냼삨뫋쓜랢뗧)럖뇰캪,,뫍(볻춼ꆣ폫횮쿠뇈,훐맺뗄쓪뻹퓶뎤횸쫽캪,웤3)ꆣ훐쎺첿ꆢ풭폍ꆢ쳬좻웸뫍쮮뗧뗄퓶뎤횸쫽럖뇰캪ꆢꆢ뫍ꆣ솽헟쓪뻹퓶뎤뗄횸쫽랽돌믹놾릫쪽퓲뿉뇭쪾캪=+++,=+++,쪽훐,WEC캪좫쟲튻듎쓜풴쿻럑ퟜ솿;CEC캪훐맺튻듎쓜풴쿻럑ퟜ솿ꆣ춼2ꆡ쫀뷧튻듎쓜풴쿻럑뷡릹퇝뷸쪾틢캪쇋닢뛈쓜풴쿻럑뷡릹뇤뮯뛔쿻럑ퟜ솿퓶뎤뗄1953ꆫ1995쓪ퟷ폃,폃짏쫶횸쫽랽돌뗈쪽폒뇟룷쿮횸쫽뗄놶쫽쿠ꆡꆡ힢:평쿂췹짏늻춬훹탎럖뇰듺뇭풭쎺ꆢ풭폍ꆢ쳬좼웸ꆢ쮮뗧ꆣ볓횵살뇭듯쓜풴쿻럑뷡릹뗄헻쳥뇤뮯ꆣ웤훐뗈쪽폒뇟뗄뗚튻쿮(쎺첿)뗄쓪뻹뇤뮯믹쫽ퟷ캪솿뛈뷡릹헻쳥뇤뮯뗄믹ힼ횵ꆣ헢퇹뗄쓜풴쿻럑뷡릹헻쳥뇤뮯쾵쫽A뗄쟳뷢릫쪽캪A=(LBc/LBc)+(LBo/LBc)+(LBn/LBc)+(LBp/LBc),(2)쪽훐,A캪쓜풴쿻럑헻쳥뇤뮯쾵쫽;LBc캪뇤뮯믹쫽,춨뎣캪(Lc-1)ꇁ100,틔쿂샠췆;LBo캪쪯폍쓪뻹뇤춼3ꆡ훐맺튻듎쓜풴쿻럑뷡릹퇝뷸쪾틢뮯믹쫽;LBn캪쳬좻웸쓪뻹뇤뮯믹쫽;LBp캪쫤뗧뫍뫋1953ꆫ2000쓪쓜랢햹쓪뻹뇤뮯믹쫽ꆣꆡꆡ힢:평쿂췹짏늻춬훹탎럖뇰듺뇭풭쎺ꆢ풭폍ꆢ쳬좼웸ꆢ쮮뗧ꆣLBoꆢLBn벰LBp뗄볆쯣럂헕LBc뗄볆쯣ꆣꆤ66ꆤ' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
ꆡꆡꆡ붪ꆡ캡뗈:훐맺쓜풴쿻럑쪱뿕킧펦럖컶ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2005쓪뗚1웚룹뻝짏쫶릫쪽,좫쟲뫍훐맺튻듎쓜풴쿻럑뷡릹훰쓪쿂붵ꆣ떽2000쓪,맺볒뺭볃뗄튻듎쓜풴쿻럑틑뗄헻쳥뇤뮯쾵쫽볆쯣뷡맻캪뺭붵떽4췲t뇪쎺/틚풪뗄쮮욽(볻춼4)ꆣWA=+++=,CA=+++=,쪽훐,WA캪좫쟲쓜풴뷡릹헻쳥뇤뮯쾵쫽;CA캪훐맺쓜풴뷡릹헻쳥뇤뮯쾵쫽ꆣퟮ뫳,폃튻듎쓜풴쿻럑뷡릹헻쳥뇤뮯쾵쫽돽틔춬웚ퟜ솿퓶뎤놶쫽뇣뿉좷뚨뷡릹뇤뮯뛔ퟜ솿퓶뎤뗄ퟷ폃,웤ퟷ폃잿뛈릫쪽뿉틔뇭듯캪F=A/R,(3)춼4ꆡ훐맺쓜풴쿻럑뗄쪱볤킧펦뇤뮯맽돌쪽훐1952ꆫ2000쓪,F캪ퟷ폃쾵쫽;R캪쪵볊쓜풴쿻럑ퟜ솿퓶뎤놶쫽;A캪쓜풴쿻럑뷡릹헻쳥뇤뮯쾵쫽ꆣ춨뎣쓢뫏쟺쿟y=+-63444,R2=>1헟캪ퟷ폃잿;뗈폚1헟듺뇭ퟷ폃튻냣;F<1헟캪ퟷ폃죵\[4\]ꆣ떼훂훐맺튻듎쓜풴쿻럑잿뛈뿬쯙쿂붵뗄풭틲폐럖컶뷡맻뇭쏷,좫쟲뗄튻듎쓜풴쿻럑ퟷ폃잿뛈2룶ꆣ뗚튻,듳맦쒣벼쫵ꆢ닺욷뫍맜샭틽뷸쯹닺짺쇋뻞 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
ퟜ뗚343웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뷰ꆡꆡ쫴ꆡꆡ뿳ꆡꆡ즽ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2005쓪뗚1웚샽죧,내늻뇤볛룱볆쯣,1960쓪훐맺떥캻GDP닺돶뛔쓜풴쿻럑쪱볤킧펦폐ퟅ훘듳펰쿬ꆣ춼7뇭쏷,쪯뗄쓜풴쿻럑잿뛈퓸듯떽쇋뷼췲t뇪쎺/틚풪뗄룟폍쿻럑잿뛈놣돖ퟅ폫헻룶쓜풴쿠튻훂뗄뇤뮯쟷쫆ꆣ쮮욽ꆣ쿔좻,헢폫듳풾뷸ꆢퟔ좻퓖몦ꆢ컄뮯듳룯쏼벰떼훂쪯폍쿻럑잿뛈떹ꆰUꆱퟖ탍뇤뮯뻖쏦훷튪풭틲맺볒럀컱낲좫뗈ퟔ좻뫍헾훎쫂볾늻컞훘듳맘쾵ꆣ폫폐2룶ꆣ횮쿠뇈,웤쯻샠뿳닺퓲쿊폐듋훖뇤뮯쳘헷ꆣ뗚튻,훐맺쪯폍쿻럑잿뛈뇤뮯폫훐맺쪯폍뗄짺뗚뛾,룄룯뾪럅틔살쎺첿쿻럑잿뛈뗄뇤뮯폫훐닺뫍릩펦쫇쏜늻뿉럖뗄ꆣ붨맺돵웚,훐맺쪯폍닺욷맺뺭볃퓶뎤뻟폐뫜듳뗄쿠맘탔,쿠맘쾵쫽듯떽뗄쿻럑듳늿럖틀삵뷸뿚,헢튻쪱웚쪯폍쿻럑잿뛈퓶%,죧듋뇤뮯뻶뚨쇋훐맺쎺첿풴뗄쿻럑잿뛈뎤뮺싽ꆣ20쫀볍50쓪듺돵맺볒늻뛏볓듳뛔쪯폍뗄뇤뮯폫죋뻹GDP뗄퓶뎤놣돖ퟅ뫜듳뗄쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ춶,듓60쓪듺뾪쪼,훐맺쿠볌랢쿖뛠뒦쪯폍풴,쿔좻,헢폫훐맺쓜풴쿻럑틔쎺첿캪훷쫇럖늻뾪뗄ꆣ헢킩폍쳯뗄쿈뫳춶닺캪싺ퟣ맺쓚쪯폍닺욷쿻럑뗄벱샽죧,20쫀볍50쓪듺,쎺첿햼튻듎쓜풴쿻럑뗄뇈훘뻧퓶뎤쳡릩쇋뿉뾿뗄컯훊믹뒡,헢튻쪱웚훐맺쪯폍룟듯93%틔짏,60쓪듺틔뫳,쯦ퟅ쓜풴쿻럑뷡릹뗄쿻럑잿뛈톸쯙엊짽ꆣ쯦ퟅ훐맺쪯폍릤튵뗄톸쯙뗷헻,쎺첿쿻럑뇈훘훰붥쿂붵,1999쓪퓚쓜풴쿻럑웰,훐맺풭폍짺닺늻뷶쓜릻싺ퟣ맺쓚짧믡뺭볃랢햹,뷡릹훐햼%ꆣ쎺첿뗘캻뗄쿂붵삭뾪쇋훐맺쓜뛸쟒뻟놸쇋쿲맺췢돶뿚쪯폍뗄쓜솦ꆣ떫쫇,평폚맺풴쿻럑뷡릹폅뮯뗄탲쒻,떫퓚뿉풤볻뗄붫살,쎺첿죔쓚쪯폍닺욷쫐뎡뗄벱뻧삩듳,1985쓪뫳훐맺풭폍돶붫쫇훐맺뗄훷튪튻듎쓜풴ꆣ뿚솿뾪쪼복짙,뺡맜닉좡룷훖듫쪩틔붵뗍맽뿬뗄맺쓚쿻럑퓶뎤,떫쫇훐맺쪯폍ퟔ룸싊뮹쫇훰쓪쿂붵ꆣ춼7ꆡ훐맺쪯폍쿻럑잿뛈뇤뮯춼5ꆡ훐맺쎺첿쿻럑잿뛈뇤뮯1953ꆫ2000쓪1952ꆫ2000쓪쓢뫏쟺쿟y=+,R2=쓢뫏쟺쿟y=++,R2=뗚뛾,20쫀볍80쓪듺틔살훐맺쓜풴쿻럑잿뛈뾪쪼좫쏦쿂붵,훷튪풭틲돽쇋펦맩틲폚맺볒뺭볃뷡릹뗷헻헾닟뗄쪧컳뫍듳맦쒣뗄맺췢쿈뷸벼쫵벰짨놸뗄틽뷸췢,춬맺볒뎤웚쪵탐볆뮮짺폽ꆢퟮ듳쿞뛈뗘붵뗍죋뿚퓶뎤뗄얬솦쫇럖늻뾪뗄ꆣ샽죧,훐맺뗄죋뿚ퟔ좻퓶뎤싊듓20쫀볍60쓪듺훐웚떽70쓪듺쒩틑뺭붵떽%,80쓪듺퓙붵훁%,뷏횮웤쯼맺볒춬웚뗄횸뇪뗍쇋1ꆫ2룶냙럖뗣\[6\]ꆣ3ꆡ뿕볤뇤뮯맽돌춼6ꆡ훐맺쎺첿쿻럑잿뛈뇤뮯맺볒쓜풴쿻럑뗄뿕볤뇤뮯맽돌쳥쿖퓚웤뺭볃랢1977ꆫ2000쓪햹뗄쓜풴릩룸ퟔ룸싊쮮욽뫍쓜풴뗄릩룸뻠샫뇤뮯쳘쓢뫏쟺쿟y=+,,R2=헷솽룶랽쏦ꆣ쿔좻,튪냑컕짏쫶솽룶랽쏦뗄뇤뮯,뻍ꆡ쪯ꆡ폍튪뛔훐맺쓜풴풴뗄뾪랢ힴ첬벰닺튵늼뻖뇤뮯폐튻쪯폍놾짭폅풽뗄욷훊쪹웤퓚헻룶쓜풴닺욷훐쯹룶쟥컺뗄쇋뷢ꆣ햼뗄폅쫆(쪯폍쿻럑솿햼헻룶쓜풴풴쿻럑솿뗄ꆡ쓜풴풴뾪랢쿖ힴ20%틔짏)뫍ퟔ짭닺욷뷡릹뗄뿬쯙뇤뮯,뻶뚨쇋쪯폍뺡맜훐맺쫇쫀뷧짏쓜풴풴뾪랢ퟮ퓧늢좡뗃뺪쿻럑뛔쓜풴쿻럑헻쳥뇤뮯뗄펰쿬솦ꆣퟷ캪맺볒릤튵죋돉뻍뗄맺볒횮튻,떫헦헽뗄듳맦쒣쓜풴풴뾪랢뮯맽돌훐ퟮ훘튪뗄쓜풴풴,쪯폍뗄쿻럑잿뛈뇤뮯뗄샺쪷좴횻폐50뛠쓪뗄쪱볤ꆣ20쫀볍50쓪듺틔ꆤ68ꆤ' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
ꆡꆡꆡ붪ꆡ캡뗈:훐맺쓜풴쿻럑쪱뿕킧펦럖컶ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2005쓪뗚1웚살,맺볒릤튵뮯뗄랢햹벫듳뗘듌벤쇋쓜풴풴뾪랢ꆣ볤믮뚯뇭쿖돶뗄컈뚨탔쯹췪좫뗖쿻ꆣ떼훂헢훖럖즢뺭맽쇋뎤웚뗄닆솦ꆢ컯솦뫍죋솦뗄춶죫뫍붨짨,훐맺뗄풭틲쫇쓜풴닺욷돵볓릤뗄뿬쯙뿕볤삩즢(뇭2)ꆣ쓜풴풴뗄뾪랢틑뺭탎돉쇋튻룶췪헻뗄짧믡짺닺쳥뇭2ꆡ훐맺맘볼뿳닺욷짺닺뿕볤뇤뮯쟷쫆럖컶쾵(1952ꆫ2000쓪,햼좫맺뇈훘/%),쒿잰훐맺틑뺭돉캪쫀뷧짏쓜풴짺닺듳맺ꆣ믘맋헢튻랢햹샺쪷,웤돉맻훷튪쳥쿖퓚ퟜ솿맦쒣뗄퓶뎤,쿮쒿쓪ꆡ럝좫맺(랽닮횵뇤뮯,퇘몣훐늿컷늿틔벰닺욷뷡릹뗄퇝뷸솽룶랽쏦ꆣN=31)뗘쟸뗘쟸뗘쟸1952쓪()ퟜ솿짏,헻룶2000쓪,컒맺쓜풴짺닺쇋풭쎺쎺첿1980쓪()쓪()틚tꆢ쪯폍틚tꆣ쒿잰,훐맺틑뺭돉캪쇋쫀1952쓪()뷧풭쎺뗄뗚튻듳짺닺맺,쪯폍뗄뗚5듳짺닺맺(볻뇭쪯폍1980쓪()쓪())ꆣ뇭1ꆡ컒맺훷튪쓜풴닺욷닺솿퓶뎤벰맺볊뗘캻ꆡퟔ룸싊뇤뮯(1952ꆫ1999쓪)ퟔ룸싊쫇랴펳맺볒믲뗘쟸쓜풴짺닺뫍릩펦ힴ첬쿮ꆡꆡ쒿뫍쓜풴릩탨욽뫢쓜솦뗄튻룶훘튪횸뇪ꆣ춨뎣쟩뿶1952쓪1975쓪1999쓪쫀뷧업쏻쿂,퓚쓜풴뿕볤럖늼뗄쫕솲쳘헷뫍쿻럑탨쟳뛠풪뮯쎺첿/ꇁ106췲,뗄쮫훘뗄ퟷ폃쿂,맺볒믲뗘쟸릤튵뮯맽돌뗄쓜풴릩풭폍/ꇁ106췲펦ퟔ룸싊ퟜ쫇듦퓚ퟅ튻룶듓뗍떽룟벰듓룟퓙떽뗍뗄쳬좻웸/ꇁ109췲퇝뷸쟷쫆\[7\]ꆣꆡꆡ쓜풴짺닺뷡릹뇤뮯쯹랴펳뗄쫇맺볒뿳닺욷뷡릹ퟔ20쫀볍50쓪듺돵틔살,훐맺뺭볃랢햹뗄튻뗄쿖듺뮯뷸돌,웤훷튪뇭쿖뻍쫇쿖듺뿳닺욷뛔뒫춳룶훘튪쒿뇪뻍쫇ퟮ듳쿞뛈뗘쳡룟맺볒뗄쓜풴ퟔ룸쮮뿳닺욷좡듺ퟷ폃뗄볓잿,웤훐ퟮ뗤탍뗄샽ퟓ튪쫴쎺욽ꆣ펦떱쮵,뺭맽뎤웚뗄얬솦뫍뻞듳뗄춶죫,퓚쪵쿖첿폫쪯폍닺솿볤뗄뇤뮯ꆣ춬퇹뗘,ퟷ캪맘볼뗄쓜풴헢튻쒿뇪랽쏦훐맺틑뺭좡뗃쇋쿠떱듳뗄돉맻ꆣ춳볆뿳훖,뎤웚틔살쎺첿퓚훐맺튻듎쓜풴짺닺훐쪼훕햼쇏뇭쏷,훐맺쓜풴뿳닺욷뗄ퟔ룸싊ퟜ쳥짏놣돖ퟅ뻓뻸뛔훷떼뗘캻ꆣ듋훖뻖쏦퓚20쫀볍60쓪듺틔살뫜룟뗄쮮ힼꆣ퓚20쫀볍90쓪듺틔잰(1953ꆫ1990틑뺭퓚쫀뷧쓜풴쿻럑듳맺훐쯹몱볻ꆣ쯹탒뗄쫇,ퟔ쓪)뗄뷼40쓪웚볤,훐맺뗄쓜풴뿳닺욷믹놾짏놣돖20쫀볍90쓪듺틔살,퓚맺볒릤튵뷡릹퇝뇤ꆢ붻춨퓋ퟅퟔ룸폐폠뗄쮮욽ꆣ떫쫇,쯦ퟅ릤튵뮯뫍돇쫐뮯랢쫤튵벰돇쫐뮯랢햹뗄릲춬췆뚯쿂,쎺첿뗄뻸뛔훷떼햹쮮욽뗄톸쯙쳡룟,20쫀볍90쓪듺틔살훐맺튻듎뗘캻뾪쪼쫜떽살ퟔ쪯폍랽쏦뗄뻞듳쳴햽ꆣ1953쓪쓜풴쿻럑뷡릹랢짺훘듳뇤뮯ꆣ쏦뛔죧듋뿬쯙뇤뮯,쪱훐맺쪯폍폫쎺첿뗄닺솿횮뇈(폍쎺뇈)횻폐,훐맺쓜풴뿳닺욷뗄ퟔ룸쓜솦뾪쪼돊쿖돶쏷쿔뗄늻쫊벴쪯폍닺솿횻폐쎺첿닺솿뗄늻ퟣ1/100ꆣ떽2000펦ꆣ떽2000쓪쪱,훐맺쓜풴뿳닺뗄ퟜ쳥ퟔ룸싊틑뺭쓪,훐맺폍쎺뇈퓲짏짽캪,뷏1953쓪쪱쳡룟쿂붵떽92%(볻춼8)ꆣ쇋17놶ꆣꆡ짺닺늼뻖뇤뮯쓜풴짺닺늼뻖뇤뮯랴펳뗄쫇훐맺쓜풴풴뾪랢뗄뿕볤췘햹뷸돌ꆣ쫜뗘훊뾱첽벰뾪랢벼쫵뗄쿞훆,훐맺릤튵뮯돵웚쓜풴풴뾪랢훷튪벯훐퓚놱랽퇘몣뗘쟸ꆣ퓚쓜풴쿻럑뿬쯙퓶뎤뗄뻞듳톹솦뫍잿뗷쳡룟풴릩룸ퟔ룸쮮욽헾닟뗄횸떼쿂,20쫀볍50쓪듺틔살,훐맺쓜풴풴뗄뾪랢뿕볤톸쯙듓퇘몣쿲쓚슽춼8ꆡ훐맺쓜풴뿳닺욷ퟔ룸싊뇤뮯쪾틢뷸탐듳랶캧뗄췆뷸ꆣ1953ꆫ2000쓪1-쪯폍;2-쎺첿;3-ퟜ쳥1952ꆫ2000쓪웚볤,좫맺쎺첿뫍쪯폍짺닺뗄뿕퓬돉듋훖뻖쏦뗄훷튪풭틲폐틔쿂솽랽쏦ꆣ볤뇤틬쾵쫽캴뎬맽3,웤훐,쎺첿짺닺뗄뇤럹뷶캪뗚튻,훐맺뗄쓜풴풴ퟜ솿뷏럡뢻,쒿잰훐맺;쪯폍짺닺뗄뇤럹캪ꆣ뮻퇔횮,쪯폍짺닺뻟쓜풴뿳닺(늻냼삨쮮솦풴)풼햼쫀뷧ퟜ솿뗄폐쏷쿔뗄뿕볤삩즢ퟷ폃,떫헢훖ퟷ폃좴놻쎺첿짺닺뿕%,뻓쫀뷧뗚뛾캻ꆣ뺡맜죧듋,훐맺쓜풴뿳닺ꆤ69ꆤ' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
ퟜ뗚343웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뷰ꆡꆡ쫴ꆡꆡ뿳ꆡꆡ즽ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2005쓪뗚1웚풴뗄놣폐훊솿풶늻뺡죋틢ꆣퟷ캪쿖듺쓜풴뿳닺뗄솽뷸뗄릲춬ퟷ폃쿂,짧믡뿳닺욷뗄쿻럑잿뛈돶쿖쿂붵,듳맘볼뿳훖,쪯폍뫍쳬좻웸퓚맺볒쓜풴뿳닺풴훐늢ퟮ훕탎돉쇋떹ꆰUꆱퟖ탍뻖쏦뗄랢햹ꆣ뗄뇈훘뷶캪%,뷏쫀뷧욽뻹쮮욽뗍쇋뷼29룶냙퓚뿕볤킧펦랽쏦,뺡맜훐맺쪼훕퓚훂솦폚쳡룟럖뗣;놾맺쓜풴뗄ퟔ룸쮮욽,떫쫇룟쯙랢햹뗄짧믡뺭볃좴뗚뛾,풴뗄뿕볤럖늼쿠뛔벯훐ꆣ쒿잰햼맺볒뛔헢훖솼뫃뗄틢풸쳡돶쇋풽살풽듳뗄쳴햽ꆣ퓚맺쓚슽폲붮췁쏦믽60%뗄놱랽뗘쟸펵폐87%틔짏뗄풴뷡릹벰웤뿕볤럖늼뗈쿈쳬늻ퟣ틲쯘뗄훆풼쿂,풴뒢솿ꆣ쎺첿쪼훕쫇훐맺쓜풴뿳닺놣돖룟ퟔ룸쮮욽훐맺쓜풴풴릩펦늻뗃늻톰쟳맺볊쫐뎡뗄뾪췘ꆣ20뗄컈뚨웷,웤릱쿗돌뛈뎬맽75%ꆣ폫횮쿠뇈,쪯폍쫀볍80쓪듺틔살,훐맺뗄쓜풴풴ퟔ룸싊돊쿖돶뿬퓲쫇맺볒쓜풴뿳닺욷맺볊쎳틗랢햹뗄ퟮ잿듳틽쟦ꆣ쯙쿂붵뗄뻖쏦,웤훐틔쪯폍벰웤뮯릤닺욷뗄뷸뿚퓶떼훂훐맺쓜풴뿳닺욷퓚20쫀볍70ꆫ80쓪듺뗄뺻럹ퟮ캪쏷쿔ꆣ돶뿚뫍90쓪듺틔뫳뗄ퟔ룸싊쿂붵뗄맘볼뻍퓚폚쪯짏쫶뿳닺욷쿻럑뗄쪱뿕킧펦쳘헷뇤뮯,뛔맺볒폍벰웤닺욷뗄듳맦쒣돶뿚폫뷸뿚ꆣ닺욷쎳틗ꆢ붻춨믹뒡짨쪩붨짨ꆢ릤튵뮯늼뻖ꆢ돇쫐뮯4ꆡ뷡ꆡ싛퇝뷸뫍짺첬뮷뺳놣뮤뗈뻹믡닺짺훘듳펰쿬ꆣ틲듋,뺡맜맺볒릤튵뮯랢햹뗄뮷뺳뫍헾닟늻뺡쿠춬,훐맺퓚뷸탐뺭볃랢햹뫍믹뒡짨쪩붨짨맽돌훐룼펦룃떫쫇훐맺뷼50쓪뗄뺭볃붨짨벰랢햹샺쪷좴횤쏷쇋뾼싇폫쓜풴랢햹쿠킭뗷ꆣ헢퇹튻룶쫂쪵,벴뛔폚튻룶릤튵뮯뫳웰맺볒뗄뺭볃닎뾼컄쿗랢햹뛸퇔,쓜풴풴짺쏼훜웚뗄쪱볤킧펦뫍뿕볤킧1ꆡ펦춬퇹듦퓚폚웹뷱캪횹뗄훐맺쿖듺뮯퇝뷸맽돌ꆣ폐:OxfordUniversityPress,1997쯹늻춬뗄쫇,퓚듳맦쒣벼쫵뫍뷰뗄틽뷸뮷뺳쿂,훐2ꆡ맺릤튵뮯맽돌훐헢훖쿻럑짺쏼훜웚뗄쪱뿕킧펦뇭쿖ingtonDC,US:WorldResourcesInstitute,2001뗄룼캪쏷쿔뫍횱맛ꆣ3ꆡ맺볒뗧솦릫쮾햽싔맦뮮뇠벭늿.훐맺쓜풴50쓪.놱뺩:훐맺뗧솦퓚쪱볤킧펦랽쏦,캪쇋볓쯙맺볒릤튵뮯뗄랢햹뫍돶냦짧,20024ꆡ헅ꆡ샗.뿳닺풴뾪랢폫맺볒릤튵뮯.짏몣:짌컱펡쫩망,2004쪵쿖볈뚨랢햹쒿뇪,퓚릤튵뮯돵웚벼쫵뫍뷰폐쿞뗄5ꆡ훐맺쓜풴랢햹놨룦뇠벭캯풱믡1훐맺쓜풴랢햹놨룦20031놱뺩:쟩뿶쿂,듖럅쪽뗄쓜풴쿻뫄뇣돉캪볓쯙맺볒뺭볃랢햹훐맺볆솿돶냦짧,2004뗄튻훖뇘좻톡퓱,틲뛸퓬돉쇋쓜풴쿻럑잿뛈뗄뿬쯙퓶6ꆡ싞ꆡ잿,췵돉짆1훐맺뗄쓜풴컊쳢폫뿉돖탸랢햹1놱뺩:쪯폍릤듳ꆣ뷸죫튵돶냦짧,200120쫀볍80쓪듺뫳,듳맦쒣뗄벼쫵뫍뷰틽뷸볓쯙쇋짧믡뺭볃뷡릹뗄뛠퇹뮯랢햹ꆣ웤뷡맻,퓚쓜7ꆡ헅ꆡ샗1훐맺뿳닺풴뾪랢폫쟸폲랢햹1놱뺩:몣퇳돶냦짧,1997풴풴뗄춶죫닺돶킧맻죕틦쳡룟뫍쿻럑뷡릹늻뛏퇝(쫕룥죕웚ꆡ2004210229)(짏뷓뗚52튳)4ꆡ퇮ꆡ횾,맹ꆡ뇸1튻샠믹폚럂죋훇쓜뗄룟슯돶쳺쮮돥퓼쾵춳ퟔ뚯룺ퟙ쾵춳1ퟔ뚯뮯뿆톧벼쫵펦폃톧쫵믡틩싛컄벯1놱뺩:놱뺩뗧닎뾼컄쿗ퟓ릤튵돶냦짧,20011ꆡ슷헗쎷5ꆡ틗볌,뫮뇲1훇쓜뿘훆벼쫵1놱뺩:놱뺩릤튵듳톧돶냦짧,,냘맣닽,샤퓶쿩1쒣뫽뿘훆쾵춳뗄쿠욽쏦럖컶1뗧웸ퟔ뚯뮯,1996(6):11ꆫ1319992ꆡ샮쪿폂6ꆡ믆훒쇘1뿘훆쾵춳MATLAB볆쯣벰럂헦1놱뺩:놱뺩맺럀릤튵,쿄돐맢1쒣뫽뿘훆폫훇쓜뿘훆뗄샭싛벰펦폃1맾뛻뇵:맾뛻뇵릤튵듳톧돶냦짧,1990돶냦짧,20013ꆡ샮폑짆7ꆡ닌ퟔ탋1훇쓜뿘훆믹뒡폫펦폃1놱뺩:맺럀릤튵돶냦짧,1998,샮ꆡ뻼1쒣뫽뿘훆샭싛벰웤퓚맽돌뿘훆훐뗄펦폃1놱뺩:맺럀릤튵돶냦짧,1993(쫕룥죕웚ꆡ2004211215)(짏뷓뗚64튳)(5)뛔폚컒맺탭뛠틀즽붨뎧뗄잦킿뿳즽쪹폃룃캻,돽쇋튩볁폅톡췢,뻍뇘탫듓짨놸뷡릹짏ퟅ쫖뷢짨놸믘쫕킿캲뿳뿉틔헦헽쪵쿖쇣뚯솦퓋탐,뻟폐뫜뻶,벴쳭볓톭뮷뇃틔쪵쿖뿳붬뗄폐킧뛠듎톭뮷뿳뮯ꆣ뫃뗄쫐뎡잰뺰폫췆맣펦폃볛횵ꆣ(4)쪵쿖쇋캲뿳풴뗄뫏샭뛾듎샻폃,캪잦킿뿳(쫕룥죕웚ꆡ2004210228)캲뿳뒦샭ퟟ돶쇋튻쳵뺭볃뿉탐ꆢ벼쫵뿉뾿횮슷ꆣꆤ70ꆤ' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
