1996୍12ᄅ୪ြࠏྀ࿐Бֻ27जֻ4௹୪ြࠏྀ߄ؓ୪ြস৯ഺჅ֥႕ཙ张冬平 史国栋 陈俊国``}ᅋေ~`۴ऌሧჷࡗ֥ކูսჰ,۳ԛਔ၂۱ҩק୪ြস৯ഺჅੱ֥܄ൔbᄝՎࠎԤഈ,ؓފଲസ֥୪ြস৯ഺჅਈࣉྛਔܙෘ,ѩབྷ༥ॉҳਔ୪ြࠏྀ߄ؓ୪ြস৯ഺჅ֥႕ཙbٳ༅ࢲݔіૼ:1982j1993୍ࡗ,୪ြࠏྀؓ୪ြস৯֥ш࠽ูսੱӯ༯ࢆ൝bྻՍ:୪ြࠏྀ߄`সളӁ৯`ш࠽ูսੱ1`୪ြস৯ഺჅ֥ંࢸקޅ၂ᇕളӁࠃ൞ದ৯ሧჷaሧӁሧჷaሱಖሧჷ֥Ⴕࠏቆކࠇᇂ,ሧჷᆭࡗթᄝሢܼ֥ٗҀྟބูսྟb၂֊ଖᇕሧჷ֥ೆਈؿളэ߄,္ࣼڿэਔჰႵ֥ሧჷᇂܱ༢bᄝ၂۱ൈࡗਙᇏ,ሧჷ֥ቆކܱ༢ᆞ൞ԩႿᆃဢ၂ᇕ֥नޙᆭᇏb൞,ೂݔఃᇏଖᇕሧჷ֥ೆਈ҂ିၹՎطؿളླྀט֥э߄,ପહࣼ߶֝ᇁھᇕሧჷ֥ཌྷؓ༎ಌࠇཌྷؓഺჅbࣼ୪ြളӁᇏֹ֥ބস৯ᆃਆᇕሧჷط,ࡌקః่ࡱ҂э,ࠧष୪ြࠏྀ߄ӱ؇aളӁࢲܒa୪ြࠢჿ؇(ೂگᇕᆷඔ)֩ၹ෮Ӂള֥႕ཙ,ૌᆭࡗ֥ቆކб২൞၂ק,֥ᄝՎٓຶଽ,ਆᇕሧჷҌିܔؿߨԛቋնི֥ି,ղ֞ކ০Ⴈ,ದ࣐ః৯,ֹ࣐ఃႨb֒ؽᆀ֥ᇂܱ༢ؿളэൈ,༯ඍ4ᇕ౦ঃन߶ᄯӮ୪ြস৯֥ཌྷؓഺჅ,ࠧ: ֹඔਈ҂э,୪ြস৯܂۳ਈᄹࡆ; ֹඔਈᄹࡆ,୪ြস৯ඔਈၛ۷ॹ֥؇ᄹࡆ; ֹඔਈࡨഒ,୪ြস৯ඔਈ҂э;!ֹඔਈࡨഒ,୪1`ഺჅস৯֥ંࢸקြস৯ඔਈಏᄹࡆbՖݓ֥ൌ࠽౦ঃটु,෮ؿള֥ᆞ൞ֻ4ᇕ౦ঃb1ᇏQ1aQ2іൕ҂֥֩Ӂਈཌ,ޘቕѓູস৯,ሺቕѓູ۶ֹ,ູਔࡥ߄ٳ༅,ࡌഡܿଆ൬ၭ҂э,ᇏਆ่ࠬཌL1aL2߃ٳਔ۶ֹބস৯֥ކቆކთbᄝL2ཌᆭ༯,֩Ӂਈཌູ၂ඣཌ,ᆃіૼ֒۶ֹඔਈ҂эൈ,স৯ࣉ၂҄ᄹࡆࣼ߶ھေԛགྷݖഺ,ၹູӁԛ҂߶ᄜᄹࡆਔb֒ሹ֥۶ֹ૫ࠒ၂קൈ,ೂOAֆ,໊ቋ؟ॖ০Ⴈ֥স৯ඔਈᄵॖၛႮࠬཌथק,ࠧABֆ໊bᆃဢ,ᄝކ֥স৯Ⴈٓຶଽ,ֆ໊۶ֹ૫ࠒቋնॖಸବস৯֥ඔਈ,ࠧস৯ླေੱ(ႨRіൕ)ࣼ൞RAB=OA``୪ြളӁᇏ,۶ֹაস৯֥ቆކູDׄ,۶ֹູOAֆ,໊স৯ູOFֆ໊,ᄵֆ໊``൬۠ರ௹:1995-05-17ᅦ`ފଲ୪ြն࿐ࣜસ࿐ჽჽӉ`࢝൱,450002`ᆢᇜ൧໓߄ਫ਼95ݼൎݓׯ`ފଲ୪ြն࿐ࠏ۽ӱ࿐ჽ`࢝൱ӧमݓ`ފଲ୪ြն࿐ࣜસ࿐ჽ`ࢃഽ
2୪`ြ`ࠏ`ྀ`࿐`Б1996୍۶ֹ૫ࠒഈ֥স৯ඔਈSॖၛཿӮOFS=OASႻӫູস৯ጋڮੱ,ّ႘۶ֹބস৯ཌྷؓॖࠆྟbೂݔDׄᄝL2ཌഈٚ,ᄵіൕགྷႵস৯֤֞ԉٳ০Ⴈ,҂թᄝഺჅস৯bႮႿݓ୪ြ҆௴ђթᄝሢႅзྟാြࠇࣼြ҂ԉٳ,ఃস৯ጋڮੱड़קԩႿࠬཌL2ᆭ༯ଖ,ׄೂGׄ෮ൕ,ՎൈBGູ୪ြস৯֥ഺჅਈ,ഺჅস৯BGაൌ࠽স৯ඔਈAG֥бੱӫູഺჅ༢ඔTBGT=AGস৯ླေੱRaጋڮੱSაഺჅ༢ඔT֥ܱ༢ູBGAG-ABABT=-AG=AG=1AGRT=1-SSᆴ֥֚ඔ๙ӈӫູૄ۱স৯ൌ࠽ڵք۶ֹ૫ࠒ,طR֥֚ඔᄵॖӫູૄ۱স৯ॖڵք۶ֹ૫ࠒ,স৯ഺჅੱႻॖཿӮস৯ഺჅੱ=1-ૄ۱স৯ൌ࠽ڵք۶ֹ૫ࠒૄ۱স৯ॖڵք۶ֹ૫ࠒ``Ⴎ܄ൔॖᆩ,୪ြস৯ഺჅੱ֥նཬ,൞Ⴎস৯ླေੱބጋڮੱটथק֥b֒ླေੱཬႿጋڮੱൈ,স৯ԛགྷഺჅ;ཌྷ,ّ֒ླေੱնႿጋڮੱൈ,স৯ԛགྷ؋ಌ;֒ؽᆀཌྷ֩ൈস৯܂ླޙbᄝथקস৯ഺჅੱ֥ഈඍਆ۱ၹᇏ,୪ြস৯ጋڮੱ֥ಒקࠞఃࡥֆ,ၹູᄝ၂קൈ௹ଽ,୪ြস৯ඔਈބ۶ֹ૫ࠒन൞ၘᆩ,֥໙ี֥ܱ൞ೂޅಒק୪ြস৯֥ླေੱbູՎ,ૌิԛೂ༯࣍රٚم,ࠧ:൮༵۴ऌ୪ӁӮЧׅטҰሧਘ࠹ෘԛളӁֆ໊୪Ӂ෮ླေ֥Ⴈ۽ਈ,ಖ,ު߸ሹ୍֒ളӁ୪Ӂሹਈ෮ླေ֥Ⴈ۽ਈ(౼ᇶေ֥୪Ӂ),ቋުᅼෘӮস৯ದඔ,Ֆطಒקস৯ླေੱ,স৯ླေੱൌ࠽࠹ෘ܄ൔॖіൕູiAi+
PiR
LHi+O=300 Tൔᇏ`Liiiቔֆ໊૫ࠒႨ۽ਈ```AiiiቔѬᇕ૫ࠒ```Piiiᇕ྾Ӂֆ໊Ⴈ۽ਈHii྾ӁളӁਈ```OiiఃႨ۽ਈTii۶ֹ૫ࠒ```300iiૄ۱স৯ο300۱۽ರ࠹ෘ2`୪ြস৯ഺჅਈ(ੱ)֥ܙෘ۴ऌഈ૫෮ิԛ֥ં܄ൔ,ૌؓފଲസ1990j1993୍ࡗ֥୪ြস৯ഺჅ౦ঃࣉྛਔҩෘ,ࢲݔі1bࢲݔཁൕ,Ֆ1990j1993୍ࡗ,ފଲസ֥୪ြস৯ഺჅੱᄝ۶ֹ૫ࠒၛૄ୍1ຣ܄౧j2ຣ܄౧֥؇ࡨഒ֥౦ঃ༯,ಯӯ҂؎༯ࢆ֥൝bఃᇶေჰၹ൞:
ֻ4௹``````````ᅦ֩:୪ြࠏྀ߄ؓ୪ြস৯ഺჅ֥႕ཙ3і1`ފଲസ୪ြস৯ഺჅܙෘ`````ᆷ`ѓ1990199119921993۶ֹ૫ࠒ(ຣ܄౧)୪ြস৯ਈ(ຣದ)স৯ླေਈ(ຣದ)ഺჅস৯ਈ(ຣದ)স৯ླေੱ(ದ/܄౧)স৯ጋڮੱ(ದ/܄౧)স৯ഺჅੱ(%)44434137ֻ၂,୪ြস৯ླေੱބླေਈؿളэ߄b1993୍ა1990୍ཌྷб,୪ြস৯ླေੱഈശਔ,ՖطླေਈᄹࡆਔຣದbఃჰၹնᇁႵਆ۱,၂൞୪ြളӁࢲܒ֥טᆜ,ၛԉٳ০Ⴈস৯ሧჷ,ն৯ؿᅚ୪ြࣜ࠶ູଢѓ֥୪ြളӁࢲܒטᆜ,൝с୪ြളӁࢲܒӔሢ؟ჭ߄ބসૡࠢٚཟؿᅚ,Ֆط୪ြস৯ླေਈᄹࡆbളӁࢲܒטᆜ୪ြস৯ླေਈᄹࡆჿᅝሹᄹࡆਈ֥48%(і2)bؽ൞୪ြࠢჿ؇֥ิ,ۚၛࣚ۶༥ቔބگᇕᆷඔູଽಸ֥୪ြࠢჿ؇֥ิۚ,ᄹࡆਔ୪ြଽ҆ؓস৯֥ླbھᇕٚൔ୪ြস৯ླေਈ֥ᄹࡆჿᅝሹᄹࡆਈ֥52%bі2`୪ြস৯ླေਈэ߄ٳ༅ᆷ`ѓ1991б19901992б19911993б19921993б1990স৯ླေਈэ߄(ຣದ)`ളӁࢲܒטᆜস৯ླေਈᄹࡨ(ຣದ)`ᅝ%`স৯ࠢჿളӁস৯ླေਈᄹࡨ(ຣದ)`ᅝ%ֻؽ,୪ြস৯ጋڮੱၧؿളэ߄,ఃэ`і3`স৯ླေੱაጋڮੱэ߄߄ږ؇бস৯ླေੱ֥э߄ေཬ,ఃᇏ1993୍ᆷ`ѓ199119921993ა1992୍ཌྷб,ؿളਔڵᄹӉbস৯ླေੱэ߄(%)`୪ြস৯ጋڮੱ֥э߄൞Ⴎ୪ြস৯ሇস৯ጋڮੱэ߄(%)၍Ֆط֝ᇁ୪ըস৯ࢲܒ֥э߄طႄఏ֥b1990j1993୍ࡗ,ފଲസ୪ըದ१ᄹࡆਔჿ261ຣದ,୍־ᄹ%,୪ըস৯ᄹࡆਔჿ134ຣದ,୍न־ᄹ%bႮႿ୪ը٤୪Ӂြ֥ؿᅚ,୪ըস৯ࢲܒؿളਔᇗնэ߄,୪ြস৯ᅝ୪ըস৯֥б২ᇯ୍༯ࢆ,1990୍ູ%,1993୍ࡨഒູ%,ފଲസ୪ြস৯֥ᄹӉږ؇֮Ⴟ୪ըದ१ᄹӉږ؇,۷֮Ⴟ୪ըস৯ᄹӉږ؇,୍न־ᄹੱᆺႵ%,1993୍ູڵᄹӉ(і4)b
4୪`ြ`ࠏ`ྀ`࿐`Б1996୍і4`ފଲസ୪ြস৯э߄ٳ༅`````ᆷ`ѓ1990199119921993न־ᄹ(%)୪ըದ१(ຣದ)`୪ըস৯(ຣದ)`୪ြস৯(ຣದ)`٤୪ြস৯(ຣದ)`ૄ۱স৯ॖڵք۶ֹ૫ࠒ(ຣ܄౧)ૄ۱স৯ڵք۶ֹ૫ࠒ(ຣ܄౧)স৯ླေਈ(ຣದ)`ഺჅੱ`୪ြࠏྀ߄ؓ୪ြস৯ഺჅ֥႕ཙᄝ୪ြളӁᇏ,୪ြࠏྀა୪ြস৯ᆭࡗ֥ᇂܱ༢іགྷູૼཁู֥սྟᇉ,ࠧᄝֹ૫ࠒ၂ק֥౦ঃ༯,ࠏྀೆඔਈ֥ᄹࡆ,сಖေ୪ြস৯ඔਈ֥ࡨഒ,ᆃіགྷູ୪ြࠏྀؓ୪ြস৯֥ஆࠪbਸ਼ຓ,ߎႵ၂ᇕ౦ঃၧّ႘ູؽᆀᆭࡗู֥ս,ࠧ֒স৯ཌྷֹؓཁ֤༎ಌൈ,୪ြࠏྀࡼФႄೆ,ၛҀၹস৯҂ቀ෮Ӂള֥႕ཙ,ᄝՎᇕ౦ঃ༯,୪ြࠏྀ֥ႄೆ൞୪ြস৯ሇ၍֥ࢲݔ,ط҂൞ႄఏ୪ြস৯ഺჅ֥ჰၹbႮႿ୪ြࠏྀऎႵูս୪ြস৯֥ྟᇉ,ၹط୪ြࠏྀ߄ඣ֥҂؎ิۚݸၐၰֹؓݓ୪ြস৯֥ഺჅӁളሢູࠞᇗေ֥႕ཙ,ᆃ൞୪ြস৯ԛགྷഺჅ֥բ߄࠴bູབྷ༥ॉҳ୪ြࠏྀა୪ြস৯ᆭࡗู֥սܱ༢,ૌ০Ⴈӑᄀݦඔ[3]ଆٳ༅ਔ୪ြࠏྀa୪ြস৯ބ୪ြሹӁᆴᆭࡗ֥ളӁݦඔܱ༢,ѩٳ༅ਔ1982j1993୍ࡗ୪ြࠏྀ(ၛMіൕ,ֆ:໊ၡຐ)ა୪ြস৯(ၛLіൕ,ֆ:໊ຣದ)֥ш࠽ูսੱb``ӑᄀݦඔູc+ L+ TVP=lmMA LlM me``ш࠽ูսੱູMRSlm=dL/dM=-[M( l+ l L)]/[L( m+ mM)]``ଆࢲݔູTVP=++()()`()()R2=``F=``DW=``ࠏྀؓস৯֥ш࠽ูսੱູMRM(+)Slm=-L(+)ൔᇏ`TVPii୪ြሹӁᆴ```LaMiiٳљູস৯ބ୪ြࠏྀೆਈ```MRSlmiiࠏྀؓস৯֥ш࠽ูսੱ۴ऌш࠽ูսੱݦඔॖ֤֞ш࠽ูսੱэ߄൝(2),Ֆᇏॖၛुԛ,1982j1992୍ࡗ,୪ြࠏྀ2`୪ြࠏྀؓ୪ြস৯սู୪ြস৯֥ш࠽ูսੱӯགྷᇯ୍༯ࢆ֥൝b֥ш࠽ูսੱ
ֻ4௹``````````ᅦ֩:୪ြࠏྀ߄ؓ୪ြস৯ഺჅ֥႕ཙ54`୪ြࠏྀؓস৯ш࠽ูսੱ༯ࢆ֥ჰၹҩෘ֥ࢲݔཁൕ,ᄝ1982j1993୍ࡗ,ފଲസ֥୪ြࠏྀؓ୪ြস৯֥ш࠽ูսੱ၂ᆰԩႿ༯ࢆ൝bш࠽ูսੱ֥༯ࢆіૼ,ෛሢ୪ြࠏྀ߄ඣ֥҂؎ิۚ,ֆ໊ඔਈ֥୪ြࠏྀ෮ูս֥୪ြস৯ඔਈᄝࡨഒ,ؓႿᆃ၂གྷའ,ૌಪູॖՖၛ༯ࠫٚ૫টࢳ:ֻ၂,୪ြࠏྀ֥ᄹӁቔႨᇯ୍༯ࢆb୪ြࠏྀؓ୪ြস৯ш࠽ูսੱ֥ࣜ࠶ჰ൞ᆷᄝ୪ြሹӁᆴ҂э֥భิ༯,୪ြࠏྀш࠽Ӂᆴა୪ြস৯ш࠽Ӂᆴ֥бᆴܱ༢b۴ऌБԏ־ࡨჰ,ᄝ୪ြস৯ш࠽Ӂᆴ҂э֥౦ঃ༯,ш࠽ูսੱ֥༯ࢆ,ඪૼෛሢ୪ြࠏྀඔਈ֥ᄹࡆ,୪ြࠏྀ֥ш࠽Ӂᆴᇯࡶࡨഒ,ࠧ୪ြࠏྀ֥ᄹӁིݔᄀটᄀཬbֻؽ,୪ြস৯ഺჅੱᇯ୍༯ࢆbႮႿ୪ြস৯ഺჅੱ֥ࡨཬ,֤ᄹࡆ֥୪ြࠏྀॖูս֥স৯ਈཌྷؓࡨഒbൈ,ႮႿস৯ഺჅਈ֥ࡨഒ,֤স৯֥ш࠽Ӂᆴᄹն,ࠧ୪ြࠏྀೆ֥ш࠽ӁᆴીႵࡨཬ,္сಖ߶ࢆ֮ఃш࠽ูսੱbֻ,୪ြࠏྀ߄ӱ؇֥ᄹӉ؇ۚႿ୪ြഺჅস৯֥ሇ၍؇b୪ြࠏྀ߄൞୪ြস৯ሇ၍֥ࢲݔb୪ըၛࠣᆜ۱ഠ߶٤୪Ӂြ֥ؿᅚ,ູჰႵ֥୪ြഺჅস৯ิ܂ਔྍ֥ࣼြࠏ߶,ࡆൌགྷਔ୪ြস৯ሇ၍,Ֆطࡨഒਔ୪ြস৯ഺჅਈ,ࢆ֮ਔ୪ြস৯ഺჅੱbࣇՖ۶ֹაস৯֥ܱ༢ٳ༅,୪ြস৯ഺჅੱӯ༯ࢆ൝,Ֆ୪ြࠏྀބ୪ြস৯ู֥սܱ༢ٳ༅,୪ြࠏྀ߄ӱ؇֥ิۚ,сಖᄹࡆস৯ॖڵք۶ֹ૫ࠒ,ᇁഺჅੱഈശ,ႮႿ୪ြഺჅস৯ݖ؟,୪ြࠏྀ߄ӱ؇֥ᄹӉ؇ႻۚႿ୪ြഺჅস৯֥ሇ၍؇b10୍ট,୪ြࠏྀሹ৯୍ᄹӉ؇ູ6%,ط୪ြഺჅস৯֥ሇ၍؇҂֞3%,Ֆط୪ြࠏྀؓস৯֥Ⴕูིսੱ༯ࢆbֻඹ,୪ြࠏྀࢲܒၛࠣႄೆࠏྀ֥҂ປಆࣜ࠶ྟbᄝభ૫֥ҩෘᇏ,ૌҐႨ֥൞୪ြࠏྀሹ৯,ѩીႵടࠣ୪ြࠏྀ֥ࢲܒ໙,ีൌ࠽ഈ,ႮႿ҂֥୪ြࠏྀؓস৯ู֥սି৯ѩ٤൞नᇉ֥,ၹطᄝ୪ࠏ৯҂؎ᄹӉ֥౦ঃ༯,୪ࠏࢲܒ֥эሑঃࡼ߶ؓ୪ြࠏྀ֥ш࠽ูսੱӁളᇗေ႕ཙbᆺႵପུିࢠॹิۚসི,ੱՖطնਈࢫസস৯֥ࠏྀФֹܼٗႨႿնโቔြൈ,ఃؓ୪ြস৯ู֥սቔႨҌࢠູૼཁbш࠽ูսੱ༯ࢆ൝іૼ,ފଲസ୪ြࠏྀᆞՖնโቔြࠏྀሇཟఃളӁ҆,ᆃ൞୪ြࠏྀؿᅚ֥၂ᇕྍཟb5`ࢲં୪ြࠏྀ߄ቔູ၂۱ࣜ࠶གྷའބݖӱ,୪ြࠏྀ൞ڎФႄೆ୪ြളӁၛࠣႄೆ֥ӱ؇ބٓ,ຶ൮༵ႋ൞ࣜ࠶ނෘ֥ࢲݔbಖط,ᄝଢభ่ࡱ༯,ႮႿݓ୪ြളӁັܴᇶุ֥ఒြ߄ӱ؇ߎޓ,֮୪ြࠏྀ߄ᇏ֥٤ࣜ࠶౦ঃߎޓૼཁ,ܣՎ,୪ြࠏྀ߄ݖӱႋ൮༵ൌགྷ୪ըࠏྀ߄,ิۚ୪ըᇏ٤୪ളӁ֥҆ࠏྀ߄ӱ؇,ᄹ఼୪ը٤୪Ӂြ་൬স৯֥ି৯,՜୪ြস৯֥ሇ၍,ቋᇔ֤୪ြস৯ބ୪ြࠏྀ֥ቆކԩႿކሑ,ྙӮႵི֥୪ြࠏྀ߄b
6୪`ြ`ࠏ`ྀ`࿐`Б1996୍ҕॉ໓ང``1`ފଲസ࠹अ.ފଲസ࠹୍.Кࣘᇏݓ࠹ԛϱഠ,1994.``2`ٮࣟݱ֩.সഺჅࣜ࠶֥ؿᅚ.Кࣘࣜ࠶॓࿐ԛϱഠ,1992.``3`֤НغנDL.୪ြളӁࣜ࠶࿐.ဗਲ਼฿ᄵԛϱഠ,1990.``4`&Sons,NewYork,'SEFFECTONAGRICULTURALLABORSURPLUSZhangDongping`ShiGuodong`ChenJunguo(HenanAgriculturalUniversity)AbstractAccordingtotheprincipleofsubstitutionbetweenresources,thepapergivesaformulaforestimatingagriculturallaborsurplus(ALS),,,,`Agriculturalmechanization,Laborproductivepower,Marginalrateofsub-stitution
