뺭볃뿆톧ꆤ1998쓪뗚6웚벬싖킧펦폫듺샭뗄뚯첬탐캪캤ꆡ즭(뢴떩듳톧뺭볃톧풺ꆡ200433)튻ꆢ틽ꆡꆡ퇔퓚놾쫀볍50쓪듺,쏀맺훸쏻뗄쯕솪뺭볃컊쳢볒늩쇖쓉(Berliner,1957)뻍퓸쳡돶맽퇐뺿훐퇫볆뮮뺭볃훐볆뮮헟캪맺폐웳튵쯹뚨짺닺볆뮮훐뗄ꆰ벬싖킧펦ꆱ컊쳢ꆣ퓚쯻쓇놾퓚컷랽뇈뷏뺭볃톧좦ퟓ쓚웄폐펰쿬뗄ꆶ쯕솪뗄릤뎧폫뎧뎤ꆷ튻쫩훐,늩쇖쓉쫇폃벬싖킧펦튻듊쏨쫶헢퇹튻훖쪵볹쿖쿳:볆뮮헟룹뻝튻룶웳튵뗄놾웚벨킧살훆뚨웤쿂웚뗄볆뮮횸뇪ꆣ퓚헾뢮볆뮮헟쎻폐룷웳튵쪵볊짺닺몯쫽뗄췪놸횪쪶뗄쟩뿶쿂,벬싖믺훆쿔좻쫇웤훘뢴볆뮮맽돌뗄튻룶뇘좻톡퓱ꆣ듓70쓪듺돵떽80쓪듺훐웚,퓚컷랽뺭볃톧뷧(훷튪쫇뇈뷏뺭볃쳥훆톧뷧)틠뛔짧믡훷틥룷맺볆뮮헟캪맺폐웳튵쯹뚨짺닺볆뮮훐뗄벬싖킧펦쿖쿳ퟷ맽듳솿샭싛퇐뺿,늢맦뮮쇋탭뛠늻춬뗄쫽톧쒣탍(죧Yunker,1973;Fan,1975;Thornton,1978;Murrell,1979;Snowberger,1979,1981,1982;Weitzman,1980;Bonin,1980;Granick,1980,1983;Liu,1982;Kerenetal,1983;Freixasetal,1985)ꆣ뫜쿔좻,헢킩샭싛컄쿗퓚떱쪱뗄쪵볹틢틥퓚폚룄뷸탐헾뿘훆뺭볃(벴죋쏇춨뎣쯹쮵뗄훐퇫볆뮮뺭볃)룷맺뗄훐퇫볆뮮믺훆ꆣ퓚90쓪듺뗄뷱쳬,쯦ퟅ짧믡훷틥룷맺뗄뺭볃룄룯뗄짮죫췆뷸,탐헾뿘훆뺭볃뗄맅뗤쒣쪽틑믹놾짏돉쇋뇈뷏훆뛈톧볒쏇퇐뺿뗄샺쪷뇪놾ꆣ뛔훐퇫볆뮮훐뗄벬싖킧펦뛔맺폐웳튵뗄뚯첬탐캪펰쿬뗄퇐뺿튲쯦횮쪧좥쇋웤쪵볹틢틥ꆣ좻뛸,평폚벬싖킧펦늻뷶듦퓚폚뒫춳탐헾뿘훆뺭볃훐볆뮮헟폫맺폐웳튵쯹뚨뗄짺닺볆뮮훐,틠뎣뎣맣랺짦벰떽쿖듺쫐뎡뺭볃훐뚭쫂믡폫뺭샭ꆢ돶냼헟폫돐냼헟ꆢ맍훷폫맍풱ꆢ뎧뎤폫뎵볤ꆢ뎵볤폫짺닺냠ퟩ,틔벰맜샭헟폫릤죋뗈뛠랽쏦뗄맘쾵,틲듋,퇐뺿벬싖킧펦컊쳢,퓚뺭볃톧폫맜샭뿆톧훐죔좻폐웤훘튪샭싛틢틥ꆣ평폚짏쫶훖훖맘쾵뻹뿉튻냣맩뷡캪쿖듺뺭볃톧훐뗄ꆰ튵훷-듺샭(pincipal-agent)ꆱꋙ맘쾵,놾컄틠냑뛔벬싖킧펦뛔웳튵뚯첬탐캪뗄펰쿬뗄퇐뺿,튻냣삩햹캪웤뛔듺샭(agent)뚯첬탐캪뗄펰쿬뗄퇐뺿ꆣ쳘뇰뾼싇떽퓚떱잰컒맺쫐뎡뺭볃뗄돉뎤폫랢폽쪱웚쯹쫔탐뗄ꋙ뛔쿖듺뺭볃톧훐펢컄ꆰprincipal-agentꆱ튻듊,훐맺뺭볃톧뷧폐늻춬뗄훐컄틫램ꆣ듳뛠쫽톧헟(죧헅캬펭폫췴뚡뚡)냑쯼틫캪ꆰ캯췐-듺샭ꆱ맘쾵,벴냑principal틫캪ꆰ캯췐죋ꆱ,뛸냑agent틫캪ꆰ듺샭죋ꆱꆣ뛸쇭췢튻킩톧헟(죧퇮킡뾭)퓲냑쯼틫캪ꆰ쫂훷-듺샭ꆱ맘쾵ꆣ뛸컒ퟜ뻵뗃헢솽훖틫램뻹늻짵쟐틢ꆣ뺭랴뢴ퟁ쒥,컒뻵뗃냑쯼틫캪ꆰ튵훷-듺샭ꆱ맘쾵,뿉쓜룼쟐뷼쯼뗄펢컄풭틥ꆣ틲캪,죧맻냑principal틫캪ꆰ튵훷ꆱ,벴뿉쮳펦훐ꆢ룛ꆢ첨뫍몣췢뮪폯쫀뷧뗄춨폃램냑헢룶ꆰ튵훷ꆱ샭뷢캪닺튵뗄쯹폐헟,폖뿉냑쯼샭뷢캪웳튵믲쫂튵뗄ꆰ훷맜헟ꆱ뛸늻뇘맽싇쯹폐훆맘쾵쫇럱쟥돾ꆣ횱뷓냑agent틫캪ꆰ듺샭ꆱ뛸늻볓튻룶ꆰ죋ꆱퟖ,뿉쓜쪹폃웰살룼랽뇣ꆣ뛸냑헢ꆰ듺샭ꆱ,폫훐컄뗄ퟜ샭ꆢퟜ닃ꆢ훷쾯ꆢ뺭샭뗈듊튻퇹,쫇놻ퟷ캪튻룶죋룱뮯뗄횰돆쏻듊살쪹폃뗄ꆣ27
룷훖막럝훆뫍돐냼훆훐벬싖킧펦컊쳢죔좻맣랺듦퓚,쒿잰뷸튻늽첽쳖벬싖킧펦폫웳튵뗄뚯첬탐캪컊쳢,뛔튵훷캪듺샭훆뚨룷쿮짺닺믲샻죳횸뇪,틔벰뛔웳튵뎧뎤ꆢ뺭샭뗄뺭펪햽싔톡퓱,뻹폐튻뚨뗄쪵볹틢틥ꆣ본폚컷랽톧헟퓚퇐뺿벬싖킧펦컊쳢쪱뛠퓋폃튻킩룟짮뗄쫽톧쒣탍(쳘뇰퓚헢랽쏦뷏췭뗄튻킩샭싛컄쿗,죧뢥샗뿋죸쮹뗈죋뗄샭싛럖컶,볻Freixasetal,1985),놾컄틠늻쓢퓚듋랽쏦ퟷ뷸튻늽뗄얬솦ꆣ쿠랴,놾컄붫훂솦폚ퟛ쫶맺췢뺭볃톧뷧퓚헢랽쏦뗄샭싛컄쿗,늢뷸뛸캪톧뷧춬죊쳡릩튻룶퓚쫽톧짏뺡솿볲뮯,떫뛔벬싖킧펦틔벰퓚웤펰쿬쿂듺샭뗄뚯첬탐캪쒣쪽뷏캪쾵춳뗄샭뷢ꆣ뛾ꆢ믹놾쫽톧쒣탍폫샭싛볙뚨평폚퓚벬싖킧펦틽떼쿂뗄듺샭뗄뚯첬탐캪쒣쪽쿠떱뢴퓓,컒쏇뇘탫쪹폃ퟮ볲떥뗄짺닺쒣탍ꆣ캪쇋랽뇣놾컄틔쿂뗄샭싛럖컶,컒쏇쫗쿈ퟷ돶쿂쫶볙뚨:1,컒쏇볙뚨튻룶튵훷죃튻룶듺샭뺭펪믲돐냼튻룶짺닺웳튵,뛸룃웳튵횻쪹폃튻훖춶죫뛸짺닺튻훖닺돶ꆣ캪쇋랽뇣웰볻,컒쏇볙뚨룃웳튵뗄짺닺몯쫽쫇쿟탔뗄ꆣ틲뛸,룃웳튵뗄짺닺횻쫜쿞폚웤쪵볊짺닺쓜솦(capacityconstraint),벴:qtꇜ)qυtꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ(t=0,1,2,ꆭ(T1a)qυt=qλt-Νtt=qλ0(1+g)-Νtꆡꆡ(Νtꇝ0,gꇝ0)ꆡꆡ(1b)퓚쪽(1)훐,qt뇭쪾룃웳튵퓚t쪱웚뗄쪵볊닺돶;qλt뇭쪾t웚웳튵뗄쪵볊짺닺쓜솦;qλt뇭쪾t쪱웚뗄웳튵ퟮ듳짺닺쓜솦;qλ0뇪쪾룃웳튵돵쪼0쪱웚웳튵뗄ퟮ듳짺닺쓜솦ꆣqυ0틠뿉놻뾴ퟷ캪룃웳튵붨솢쪱뗄벼쫵짨볆쓜솦ꆣg뇭쪾룃웳튵뗄짺닺쓜솦뗄쓪퓶뎤싊ꆣ퓚(1b)훐,컒쏇볙뚨gꇝ0ꆣ떫캪쇋랽뇣웰볻,퓚틔쿂뗄럖컶훐,컒쏇믹놾짏볙뚨g=0ꆣΝt퓲뇭쪾튻룶랴펳튻킩늻좷뚨탔쫂볾뗄쯦믺뇤솿,뛸헢킩늻좷뚨탔쫂볾냼삨풭닄쇏뫍쓜풴릩룸짏뗄럇좷뚨탔ꆢ믺웷뗄춻좻쯰뮵ꆢ릤죋뗄좱쾯틔벰ퟔ좻퓖몦,뗈뗈ꆣ볙죧Νt=0,룃웳튵뗄쪵볊짺닺쓜솦붫믡뗈폚쯼뗄ퟮ듳짺닺쓜솦,벴qυt=qυt,헢튲틢캶ퟅ룃웳튵쫇퓚튻룶좷뚨탔뗄뮷뺳훐퓋탐뗄ꆣ볙죧Νt>0,룃웳튵뗄쪵볊짺닺쓜솦붫믡뗍폚쯼뗄ퟮ듳짺닺쓜솦,벴,qυt<qυtꆣ좻뫳,컒쏇뿉틔쮵룃웳튵쫇퓚튻룶럇좷뚨탔뗄뮷뺳훐퓋탐뗄ꆣ2,횻폐듺샭횪뗀ퟔ벺쯹맜웳튵뗄쪵볊짺닺쓜솦,뛸튵훷뛔듋늢늻쟥돾ꆣ퓚듋탅쾢늻뛔돆뗄쟩뿶쿂,믹폚캺듄싼(Weitzman,1980)캪벬싖킧펦쯹붨솢뗄쫽톧쒣탍,컒쏇볙뚨퓚헻룶볆뮮쪱웚t=0,1,2,ꆭ,T훐,튵훷퓋폃틔쿂뗄벬싖믺훆캪듺샭훆뚩짺닺횸뇪:qδt+7(qt-qδt)ꆡꆡifꆡꆡqtꇝqδt(2a)qδt+1=qδtꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡifꆡꆡqt<qδt(1a)(0ꇜ7ꇜ1,t=0,1,2,ꆭ,T)퓚쪽(2)훐,qδt+1뇭쪾t+1쪱웚뗄볆뮮횸뇪;qδt뇭쪾t쪱웚뗄볆뮮횸뇪;qt뇭쪾웳튵퓚t쪱웚뗄쪵볊닺돶;7캪뇭쪾벬싖킧펦잿뛈듳킡뗄튻룶닎쫽ꆣ뇈뷏쪽(2)폫캺듄싼캪벬싖킧펦쯹붨솢뗄샭싛쒣탍:qδt+1=qδt+7t+1(qt-qδt)+∆t+1(볻28
Weitzman,1980)ꋙ,뿉틔뾴돶,뇊헟뛔캺듄싼쒣탍ퟷ쇋죧쿂죽뗣탞헽:뗚튻,퓚캺듄싼뗄벬싖킧펦쒣탍훐,벬싖킧펦닎쫽7놻볙뚨캪튻룶퓚늻춬쪱웚쓚뇤뮯뗄솿(캬듄싼캪7럅훃쇋튻룶쿂뇪t,벴7t)ꆣ떫쫇캪쇋볲뇣웰볻,퓚쿂쫶럖컶훐,컒쏇볙뚨7퓚쪱웚t=0,1,2,ꆭ,T훐쫇튻룶뎣쫽ꆣ컒쏇틠볙뚨튵훷뫍듺샭뻹횪뗀7횵뗄듳킡ꆣ뗚뛾,캺듄싼뗄벬싖킧펦쒣탍퓊탭웤ꆰ벬싖ꆱ뎯솽룶랽쿲퓋뚯(튲탭캺듄싼퓚떱쪱늢쎻폐틢쪶떽헢튻뗣)ꆣ볙죧,볙죧qt<qδt,튵훷퓚쪱웚t+1붫믡붵뗍볆뮮횸뇪ꆣ쿔좻,캺듄싼뛔벬싖킧펦쯹ퟷ뗄헢훖맦뮮,쫇폫벬싖킧펦뗄풭살틢틥폐쎬뛜뗄ꆣ듓폯틥톧뗄뷇뛈살쮵,볙죧튵훷뗄횸뇪쓜릻뎯솽룶랽쿲뇤뚯,ꆰ벬싖ꆱ튻듊퓚헢샯쫇컞킧뗄ꆣ쇭췢,퓚쪵볹훐,튵훷튻냣틠늻믡붵뗍볆뮮횸뇪ꆣ틲듋,퓚컒쏇뗄벬싖킧펦쒣탍훐,컒쏇볓뷸쇋뗚뛾룶쳵볾뛸쪹웤헦헽돉캪튻룶벬싖ힰ훃:볙죧qt<qδt,qδt+1=qδt뗚죽,퓚캺듄싼뗄벬싖킧펦쒣탍훐폐튻룶뇤솿∆ꆣ캺듄싼틔듋살랴펳튵훷룹뻝듺샭쯹맜웳튵뗄ꆰ틾뇎짺닺쓜솦ꆱ뗄맀볆뛸뛔웤볆뮮횸뇪쯹ퟷ뗄쯦틢뗷헻ꆣ캺듄싼(1980:304)뷢쫍쮵:ꆰ뛀솢퓶솿∆t+1뇭쪾퓚짏튻룶쪱웚볆뮮횸뇪룕뫃췪돉뗄쟩뿶쿂쪱웚t볆뮮횸뇪뗄뇤뮯솿뗄듳킡ꆱꆣ컰펹훃틉,캺듄싼퓚웤벬싖킧펦쒣탍훐럅훃튻룶∆t+1쫇뫏샭뗄ꆣ좻뛸,캪쇋랽뇣웰볻,컒쏇냑∆t+1뾴ퟷ캪튻룶탩훃뇤솿(dummyvariable)듓뛸퓚컒쏇뗄쒣탍훐놻짡뗴ꆣ듓쪽(2)훐,뿉틔뾴돶,7쫇뇪쪾벬싖킧펦잿뛈듳킡뗄캨튻뛈솿ꆣ볙죧7=1,컒쏇뗄벬싖킧펦쒣탍벴폫놫쓾(Bonin,1980)뗄쒣탍쫇튻훂뗄;튵훷ퟜ쫇틔튻웳튵뗄놾웚쪵볊닺돶살좷뚨웤쿂웚뗄볆뮮횸뇪,벴qδt+1=qtꆣ볙죧7=0,쓇쎴ꆣ헢틢캶ퟅ퓚헻룶쪱웚t=0,1,2,ꆭ,T훐qδt+1=qδt,벴튵훷뗄볆뮮횸뇪캬돖늻뇤ꆣ떫벴쪹퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,컒쏇죔좻뿉틔쮵벬싖킧펦캪쇣(뛸늻쫇쮵쎻폐벬싖킧펦)ꆣ3,듺샭ퟷ캪웳튵뗄맜샭헟쫇웳튵뺭볃믮뚯뗄캨튻뻶닟헟ꆣ틲뛸듺샭뗄룶죋쫕죫뗄ퟮ듳뮯쫇웳튵닺돶뗄캨튻뻶뚨틲쯘ꆣꋚ퓚틔쿂뗄럖컶훐,컒쏇볈늻뾼싇듺샭룶죋얬솦뗄뢺킧폃(disu2tility)틲쯘,틠늻뾼싇웳튵뗄X2뢺킧싊(X2inefficiency)틔벰뺭볃뢺킧싊(economicinefficiency)컊쳢ꆣ컒쏇볙뚨듺샭ퟷ캪웳튵맜샭뗄쫕죫틔쿂튻릫쪽살뻶뚨:St+Bt+bt(qt-qδδt)Yt(qt,qδt,qδt)=ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡifꆡꆡqtꇝqt()St=bt(qt-qδt)ifꆡꆡqt<qδ3t(t=0,1,2,ꆭ,T)퓚쪽(3)훐,Yt(qt,qδt,qυt)뇭쪾듺샭퓚쪱웚t뗄ퟜ쫕죫ꆣ웤ퟜ쫕죫뻶뚨폚죽룶틲쯘:웳튵퓚쪱웚t뗄쪵볊닺돶qt,볆뮮횸뇪qδt,뫍쪵볊짺닺쓜솦qδtꆣSt뇭쪾듺샭뗄믹놾릤ꆣBt뇭쪾죧맻웳튵췪돉짺닺횸뇪듺샭쯹뗃뗄믹놾붱뷰ꆣ퓚qtꇝqδt뗄쟩뿶쿂,bt뇭쪾뎬닺붱뷰싊ꆣ랴횮,죧맻qt<qδt,bt퓲뇭쪾퓚웳튵쎻쓜췪돉볆뮮쪱,듺샭룶죋쫕죫뗄돍랣(복짙)싊ꆣꋙ캺듄싼뗄벬싖킧펦쒣탍퓸퓚컷랽뺭볃톧뷧틽웰탭뛠엺움틢볻ꆣ샽죧,듷뿋(Dyker,1985:23-24)퓸횸돶,볆뮮헟냑캴살뗄볆뮮횸뇪폫쒿잰뗄볆뮮횸뇪솪쾵퓚튻웰쫇늻헽좷뗄,틲캪뫳헟쎻폐죎뫎ꆰ쫂뫳뗄틢틥ꆱ(noexpostsignificance)ꆣ놾쓚쳘(Bennett,1989:93)퓸뛔듷뿋헢튻엺움틢볻ퟷ맽뗄쿪쾸뗄샭싛횤ꆣ쇭췢,뫮쒷쮹쳘샊(Holmstrom,1982,)틠뛔캺듄싼뗄벬싖킧펦쒣탍쳡돶틔쿂틉컊:볈좻퓚헻룶쪱웚쓚뗄늻좷뚨틲쯘뮥늻쿠룉,캪쪲쎴볆뮮헟펦룃늻뛏뗘탞룄웤볆뮮횸뇪쓘?뺡맜캺듄싼뗄벬싖킧펦쒣탍퓸틽웰죧듋뗈뗈엺움틢볻,뇊헟죏캪,뇈뷏쯻죋뗄벬싖킧펦쒣탍,죧쇵뗄쒣탍(Liu,1982),쮹억늩룱뗄쒣탍(Snowberger,1979,1981,1982),틔벰뿂쇖뗈죋뗄쒣탍(Kerenetal,1983),캺듄싼뗄벬싖킧펦쒣탍룼뷓뷼떱쪱짧믡훷틥룷맺뗄볆뮮쪵볹ꆣ헢샯뗄컊쳢늻쫇볆뮮헟캪쪲쎴펦룃헢퇹ퟶ,뛸쫇캪쪲쎴쯻쏇헢퇹ퟶꆣ퓚헾뢮볆뮮헟좱랦튻룶웳튵뗄짺닺뿉쓜탔벯뫏뗄췪놸탅쾢뗄쟩뿶쿂,뷓뷼헆컕웤헦쪵짺닺쓜솦뗄ퟮ볲떥뛸쟒ퟮ죝틗뗄랽램쫇뇈뷏웤짏웚뗄볆뮮폫웤춬웚뗄쪵볊벨킧ꆣꋚ퓚쿖쪵짺믮훐췹췹늻쫇죧듋ꆣ틲쯘,죎뫎웳튵뺭펪뻶닟뚼쫇뺭평웳튵쓚늿돉풱뗄쿠뮥쳖볛뮹볛살뻶뚨뗄ꆣ29
4,룸뚨쪽(3),컒쏇뷸튻늽볙뚨듺샭ힷ쟳웤헻룶t=0,1,2,ꆭ,T쪱웚뗄룶죋ퟜ쫕죫뗄쳹쿖횵뗄ퟮ듳뮯ꆣ웤볆쯣릫쪽캪:ꇒT-rt[St+Bt+bt(qt-qδt)]edtꆡꆡ(ifꆡqt>qδt)0ퟮ듳뮯-rt:VꇒTY(ꆤ)edt=0ꇒT[St+bt(qt-qδ-rtt)]edtꆡꆡꆡꆡ(4)(ifꆡqt<qδt)0qδt+1=qδt+7(q-qδt)ꆡ(ifꆡqtꇝqδt);ꆡqδt+1=qt(ifꆡqt<qδt)퓚쪽(4)훐,r뿉틔뾴ퟷ캪틸탐듦뿮샻쾢싊;뛸-rte퓲뿉틔뾴ퟷ쫇쳻쿖싊ꆣ죽ꆢ좷뚨탔쳵볾쿂듺샭뗄뚯첬탐캪:벬싖킧펦헦뗄믡펰쿬웳튵닺돶뗄ퟮ듳뮯싰ꆡꆡ쿖퓚,죃컒쏇살럖컶퓚좷뚨탔쳵볾쿂벬싖킧펦뛔듺샭뗄뚯첬탐캪뗄펰쿬ꆣ듓쪽(1b)훐,컒쏇틑뺭횪뗀,튻룶웳튵뗄좷뚨탔퓋탐뮷뺳틢캶ퟅΝt=0,듓뛸,qυt=qλtꆣ퓚틔쿂싛쫶훐,컒쏇붫듓뛔쪱웚T뫍쪱웚T-1뗄듺샭뗄탐캪럖컶훐짪틽돶싟벭뷡싛ꆣ떫쫇,컒쏇훷튪닠훘폚뛔쪱웚T-1훐듺샭뗄탐캪럖컶ꆣ틲캪,퓚잰폚T-1뗄쯹폐쪱웚훐,튻룶듺샭펦룃뫍쪱웚T-1폐춬퇹뗄탐캪쒣쪽ꆣ쫗쿈,죃컒쏇살뾼싇쪱웚T훐듺샭쯹맜웳튵뗄짺닺탐캪ꆣ컒쏇볙뚨쪱웚T캪듺샭퓚룃웳튵릤ퟷ뗄ퟮ뫳웚쿞ꆣ퓚쪱웚T횮뫳,룃듺샭뿉쓜평폚쳡냎ꆢ뗷뚯ꆢ듇횰믲췋택뗈풭틲뛸샫뾪웳튵ꆣ평폚퓚쪱웚T횮뫳뗄볆뮮횸뇪틑폫쿖죎맜샭헟컞맘,벴쪹웳튵퓚쪱웚Tퟮ듳뮯웤닺돶떽쪵볊짺닺쓜솦벫쿞,룃듺샭틠늻뇘캪벬싖킧펦틽웰뗄퓚쪱웚T횮뫳튵훷쯹뚨뗄룼룟볆뮮횸뇪뢶돶죎뫎듺볛ꆣ짏폚퓚쪱웚T횮뫳,췪돉튵훷탂뗄볆뮮횸뇪틑쫇쿂죎맜샭헟뗄컊쳢,퓚쪱웚T,ퟮ듳뮯웳튵뗄닺돶떽웳튵뗄쪵볊짺닺쓜솦벫쿞,쿔좻쫇룃듺샭뗄ퟮ폅톡퓱ꆣ틲듋,컒쏇볙뚨,퓚쪱웚T,룃웳튵ퟜ쫇내웤짺닺쓜솦벫쿞뛸짺닺,벴,qT=qυT=qδTꆣ좻뛸,퓚쪱웚T-1,볙죧웳튵맜샭헟톡퓱튻룶뫜룟뗄닺돶쮮욽,평폚튵훷뗄벬싖킧펦퓚웰ퟷ폃,퓚쪱웚T,튵훷캪룃웳튵뚨뗄볆뮮횸뇪붫믡쳡룟ꆣ뛸웳튵퓚쪱웚T뗄룼룟뗄볆뮮횸뇪붫믡떼훂룃듺샭뗄쪱웚T뗄붱뷰복짙ꆣ튪좡뗃솽룶쪱웚뗄룶죋쫕죫ퟜ뛮쳹쿖횵뗄ퟮ듳뮯,룃맜샭헟뇘탫춨맽욽뫢웤퓚쪱웚T-1웳튵뗄룟닺돶룸쯻듸살뗄룟붱뷰뗄뗃,폫웤퓚쪱웚T웳튵뗄룟볆뮮횸뇪룸쯻쯹퓬돉쫕죫뗄쪧,살볆쯣돶쪱웚T-1웳튵뗄ퟮ폅닺돶쮮욽ꆣ쪽(3)훐,컒쏇틑뺭횪뗀,늻싛퓚죎뫎쪱웚,볙죧튻룶웳튵캴쓜췪돉튵훷쯹뚩뗄볆뮮횸뇪,룃듺샭붫뗃늻떽웤믹놾붱뷰Bt,늢쏦쇙튻룶췪늻돉볆뮮뗄돍랣bt(qt-qδt)ꆣ틲뛸,늻췪돉튵훷뗄볆뮮횸뇪쿔좻쫇듺샭퓚쪱웚T-1뗄듎폅(sub2optimum)톡퓱ꆣ듓헢튻뗣짏살쮵,룃듺샭늻뇘뾼싇qT-1<qδT-1뗄쟩탎ꆣ좻뛸,퓚qδTζ-1뫍qT-1뗄쟸볤쓚(죧맻qδT-1<ζqT-1),쯻죔좻탨튪볆쯣돶튻룶ퟮ폅뗄웳튵닺돶쮮욽ꆣ뛸퓚췪돉볆뮮쳵볾쿂뗄웤닺돶쮮욽뗄ퟮ폅뷢,뿉틔춨맽볆쯣쪱웚T-1뗄닺돶퓶솿룸룃듺샭퓚춬웚쯹듸살뗄뺻쫕틦폫웤퓚쪱웚T쯹뢶뗄듺볛뗄쳹쿖횵뗄뇟볊쳦듺싊살쟳돶ꆣ룸뚨ퟮ듳뮯:YT=ST+BT+bT(qT-qδT)(5a)뛸ꆡꆡqδT=qδT-1+7(qT-1-qδT-1)(5b)(qδT-1ꇜqT-1ꇜqυT-1,qT=qυT,0ꇜ7ꇜ1)30
냑(5a)듺죫(5b)뗃:YT=ST+BT+bT(qT-qδT-1-7qT-1+7qδT-1)(6)춨맽볆쯣쪽(6)훐YT뛔qT-1뗄욫떼쫽,컒쏇뿉틔볆쯣돶쪱웚T-1뗄룃웳튵뗄닺돶퓶솿캪웤맜샭헟퓚쪱웚T쯹퓬돉뗄룶죋쫕죫뗄뇟볊복솿캪:YTdYTûT=-1=-bT7(7)qT-1쪽(7)틢캶ퟅ,퓚쪱웚T-1,웳튵닺돶뗄쎿튻퓶솿붫믡쪹룃맜샭헟퓚쪱웚T뗄쫕죫복짙b7YTꆣ떫쫇,컒쏇튲펦룃뾴떽,퓚쪱웚T-1,웳튵쎿튻뎬닺퓶솿쯹룸웤맜샭헟퓚춬웚뗄쫕죫쯹듸살뗄뇟볊퓶솿캪:YT-1dYT-1T==-1bT-1qT-1좻뫳,컒쏇뿉틔볆쯣퓚쪱웚T-1웳튵닺돶뗄쎿튻퓶솿룸튻룶맜샭헟퓚쪱웚T-1쯹퓶볓뗄쫕죫폫룸웤퓚쪱웚T쯹퓬돉뗄쫕죫뗄복짙뗄쳦뮻싊(trade2off)캪:dYTûT-1bT=-7(9)dYTûbT-1T-1룸뚨헢퇹튻룶뚨쳦뮻싊,튻룶샭탔뗄맜샭헟붫믡춨맽쯻뛔(쿠뛔폚쪱웚T뗄쫕죫살쮵뗄)쪱웚T-1뗄쫕죫뗄룶죋욫뫃돌뛈(뿉폃1+r살뫢솿)폫쪽(9)뗄뇈뷏훐살뻶뚨웳튵퓚쪱웚T-1뗄ퟮ폅닺돶쮮욽ꆣ춨맽뇈뷏,뿉쓜돶쿖죽훖쟩탎:bT1+r>(10a)bT-1bT1+r=7(10b)bT-1bT1+r<7(10c)bT-1(1),룸뚨쳵볾r>0뫍0<7ꇜ1,볙죧튵훷놣돖뎬닺붱뷰싊bT-1늻쳡룟,벴,bT-1ꇝbT,헢벴쫇쪽(10a)뗄쟩탎ꆣ퓚듋쟩뿶쿂,룃웳튵붫믡ퟮ듳뮯웤닺돶떽웤쪵볊짺닺쓜솦벫쿞,벴,qT-1=ζqT-1ꆣ헢훖쟩뿶뇭쏷벬싖킧펦뛔웳튵뗄닺돶ퟮ듳뮯탐캪쎻폐죎뫎펰쿬ꆣ(2),룸뚨쳵볾r>0뫍0<7ꇜ1,돽럇튵훷퓚쪱웚T쳡룟뎬닺붱뷰싊bT,럱퓲뗄뮰,쪽(10b)뗄쟩탎붫늻믡돶쿖ꆣ볙죧7=1,벴,쪱웚T뗄볆뮮횸뇪뗈폚쪱웚T-1룃웳튵뗄쪵볊닺돶,쓇쎴,쪽(10b)튪쟳∃b=r(헢샯∃b=(bT-bT-1)öbT-1)ꆣ벴뎬닺붱뷰퓶뎤싊뗈폚틸탐뒢탮샻싊ꆣ볙죧0<7ꇜ1,쪽(10b)뗄뻹뫢쳵볾퓲캪∃b=(1+r-7)ö7ꆣ퓚쪽(10b)뗄쟩뿶쿂,컞싛웳튵뗄맜샭헟퓚T-1쪱웚뗄볆뮮횸뇪qδT-1뫍웳튵뗄쪵볊짺닺쓜솦ζqT-1뗄쟸볤쓚ퟷ돶죎뫎닺돶쮮욽뻶닟,웤퓚솽룶쪱웚뗄쫕죫ퟜ뫍뗄쳻쿖횵ퟜ쫇튻퇹뗄ꆣ떫벴쪹퓚헢훖뻹뫢쳵볾쿂,룃맜샭헟뿉쓜죔좻톡퓱쪱웚T-1뗄쫕죫ퟮ듳뮯ꆣ뛸웤쪱웚T-1듺샭뗄쫕죫뗄ퟮ듳뮯탐캪폖뇘좻떼훂춬쪱웚웳튵닺돶뗄ퟮ듳뮯ꆣ헢뻍쫇컷랽죋쯹뎣쮵뗄튻뻤돉폯:ꆰ튻쓱뷱죕퓚쫖ퟜ쫇뇈튻쓱쏷죕퓚쇖(짵훁튻쓱쏷죕퓚쫖)횵뗄뛠ꆱꆣ틲듋,퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,벬싖킧펦쯆뫵뛔웳튵뗄닺돶ퟮ듳뮯탐캪죔쎻폐뛠짙펰쿬ꆣ(3),퓚(10c)뗄쟩뿶쿂,튵훷퓚짺닺볆뮮짏뗄벬싖킧펦붫믡뛔듺샭퓚T-1쪱웚짺닺폐튻뚨뗄늻샻쿞훆ꆣ떫쫇,헢튪쟳쪱웚T뗄뎬닺붱뷰싊bT폐튻룶듳럹뛈뗄쳡룟(웤뻹뫢쳵볾캪∃b>(1+r-7)ö7)ꆣ좻뛸,헢훖쟩뿶퓚쿖쪵훐쫇뫜짙돶쿖뗄ꆣ틲듋,퓚쿖쪵훐,튵훷튻냣쟩뿶쿂31
쫇늻믡쳡룟뛔웤듺샭뗄뎬볆뮮횸뇪붱샸싊뗄ꆣퟛ짏쯹쫶,컒쏇뗄럖컶뗃돶폫튻냣죋뗄횱맛에뛏쯹늻춬뗄뷡싛:퓚튻룶좷뚨탔뗄뮷뺳훐,횻튪듺샭풤웚떽퓚캴살쪱웚훐뗄뎬볆뮮횸뇪붱샸싊늻믡듳럹뛈쳡룟,벬싖킧펦늢늻헦헽뛔듺샭뗄뚯첬탐캪닺짺죎뫎늻샻쿞훆,믲헟쮵,벬싖킧펦늢늻믡떼훂듺샭틾싷웳튵뗄헦헽짺닺쓜솦ꆣ쯄ꆢ늻좷뚨탔쳵볾쿂벬싖킧펦뛔듺샭뗄뚯첬탐캪뗄펰쿬:뛔뿂쇖뗈죋쒣탍뗄훘탂쮼뾼ꆡꆡ뺡맜컒쏇뛔좷뚨탔볙뚨쳵볾쿂튵훷퓚훆뚨웳튵뗄볆뮮횸뇪짏쯹쪹폃뗄벬싖믺훆뛔듺샭뗄뚯첬탐캪펰쿬뗄짏쫶럖컶뗃돶쇋튻킩싟벭뷡싛,떫헢킩싟벭뷡싛췹췹늢늻쓜헦헽랴펳뛠짙뺭볃퓋탐뗄쿖쪵ꆣ틲캪,퓚쿖쪵훐,쎿룶웳튵뚼쫇퓚튻룶쯦믺(벴늻좷뚨탔)쫀뷧훐퓋탐뗄ꆣ탭뛠쯦믺틲쯘,죧풭닄쇏릩펦뗄풤웚늻떽뗄뛌좱ꆢ릩뗧쾵춳뗄얼좻춣뗧ꆢ믺웷뗄얼좻맊헏ꆢ릤죋뗄좱쾯ꆢ틔벰ퟔ좻퓖몦뗈뗈,뻹믡복짙튻룶웳튵뗄쪵볊짺닺쓜솦ꆣ캪쇋랴펳튵훷퓚훆뚨웳튵뗄짺닺볆뮮훐쯹닉폃뗄벬싖믺훆뛔듺샭뗄뚯첬탐캪펰쿬뗄쪵볊쒣쪽,컒쏇뇘탫냑헢킩늻좷뚨탔틲쯘틽죫컒쏇뗄샭싛쒣탍ꆣ퓚뗚죽뷚뗄럖컶훐,컒쏇틑뺭횸돶,룸뚨튻룶좷뚨탔뗄퓋탐뮷뺳,웳튵맜샭헟뗄쫕죫ퟮ듳뮯컊쳢쪵볊짏뇤돉쇋볆쯣웤퓚헻룶쪱웚t=1,2,ꆭ,T훐뗄뎬닺붱샸ퟜ뛮뗄쳹쿖횵뗄컊쳢ꆣ틲캪,퓚튻룶좷뚨탔뗄뮷뺳훐(벴퓚쪽(1))훐,Νt=0,듓뛸웳튵쪵볊짺닺쓜솦뗈폚웤ퟮ듳짺닺쓜솦,벴,qυt=qλt,컞싛쪽(2)훐벬싖킧펦7퓚0떽1뗄쟸볤쓚좡횵뛠짙,튵훷뗄쿂웚볆뮮횸뇪qδt뻶늻믡뎬맽웳튵뗄쪵볊짺닺쓜솦qυtꆣ틲듋,벴쪹웳튵퓚쪱t뺡웤짺닺쓜솦짺닺,웤맜샭헟튲늻뇘떣탄퓚t+1틔벰웤뫳훮쪱웚훐췪늻돉튵훷뗄짺닺볆뮮뗄컊쳢ꆣ퓚듋쟩뿶쿂,듺샭뗄풤웚쫕죫뗄ퟮ듳뮯쪵볊짏뇤돉쇋놾웚뫍캴살뎬닺붱뷰뗄쳦듺컊쳢ꆣ퓚캴살뗄쫕죫뗄쳹쿖싊-rte뗍폚1(벴r>0),웳튵맜샭헟ퟔ좻쟣쿲폚놾웚뗄뎬닺붱Btꇔbt(qt-qδt),뛸늻쫇쿂웚뗄뎬닺붱Bt+1ꆣ틲듋,벬싖킧펦뛔웳튵뗄닺돶ퟮ듳뮯늢쎻폐뛠짙늻샻펰쿬ꆣ좻뛸,볙죧냑늻좷뚨탔틲쯘틽죫컒쏇뗄샭싛럖컶,벴컒쏇볙뚨Νtꇝ0,붫믡닺짺폐쪱웚t+1뗄웳튵볆뮮횸뇪듳폚웤춬웚쪵볊짺닺쓜솦뗄뿉쓜탔ꆣ헢쪵볊짏튲틢캶ퟅ퓚쪱웚t+1,듺샭쏦쇙ퟅ평폚웳튵췪늻돉튵훷뗄짺닺볆뮮뛸떼훂뗄쪧뗴웤믹놾붱뷰Bϖt+1뗄뿉쓜탔ꆣ틲듋,퓚튻룶럇좷뚨탔뗄퓋탐뮷뺳훐,떱튻룶듺샭ퟷ캪웳튵뗄맜샭헟ퟶ돶놾웳튵뷱웚짺닺쮮욽뗄뻶닟쪱,쯻뇘탫뾼싇떽캴살쪱웚뗄쪧좥웤믹놾붱뷰뗄럧쿕ꆣ쿖퓚,죃컒쏇퓋폃뿂쇖뗈죋(Keren,Miller&Thornton,1983)럖컶랽램뫍쮼슷살뾼싇퓚늻좷뚨탔뮷뺳훐벬싖킧펦뛔듺샭뗄뚯첬짺닺탐캪뗄펰쿬ꆣꋙ캪쇋볲뇣웰볻,퓚쿂쫶럖컶훐,컒쏇죔좻듓뛔훕웚뇊뷶잰폚훕웚뗄쪱웚T-1뗄듺샭뗄탐캪뗄럖컶훐짪틽돶컒쏇뗄뷡싛ꆣ컒쏇튲죔좻볙뚨,퓚훕웚T,듺샭ퟷ캪맜샭헟뫍뻶닟헟ퟜ쫇톡퓱내웳튵뗄쪵볊짺닺쓜솦짺닺ꆣ좻뛸,폫튻룶좷뚨탔뗄퓋탐뮷뺳쿠뇈뷏,퓚튻룶럇좷뚨탔뗄퓋탐뮷뺳훐,튻킩뻶뚨듺샭퓚쪱웚T-1뗄짺닺뻶닟뗄틲쯘붫랢짺뇤뮯ꆣ퓚럇좷뚨뮷뺳뫍벬싖킧펦늢듦뗄뚯첬뿲볜훐,웳튵퓚쪱웚T-ꋙ헢샯뇘탫횸돶,뺡맜컒쏇퓚쿂쫶럖컶훐뷨폃쇋뿂쇖뗈죋뗄럖컶쮼슷,떫퓚컒쏇뗄쒣탍훐,헻룶벬싖킧펦뗄맦뮮돌쪽틑췪좫룄뇤쇋ꆣ32
1뗄닺돶쮮욽붫믡뛔룃맜샭헟퓚쪱웚T뗄쫕죫폐틔쿂펰쿬:(1)평폚쪱웚T-1뗄웳튵뗄룟닺돶쮮욽뛸춨맽벬싖믺훆쯹떼훂뗄쪱웚T뗄룟볆뮮횸뇪,늻떫믡복짙듺샭퓚쪱웚T뗄풤웚뎬닺붱BT,튲뿉쓜믡쪹룃듺샭평폚퓚쪱웚T웳튵췪늻돉튵훷뗄짺닺볆뮮뛸퓢쫜튻룶쫕죫돍랣-bꇐ(qT-qT);(2),쪱웚T뗄룟볆뮮횸뇪튲믡퓶볓듺샭퓚쪱웚T쪧좥웤믹놾붱뷰BT뗄뿉쓜탔ꆣ틲듋,내헕듺샭퓚솽룶쪱웚뗄ퟜ쫕죫뗄쳹쿖횵뗄뻶뚨릫쪽,ퟮ듳뮯-rt:(Y)=YT-1+YTe(11)룃듺샭튪쪵쿖룶죋쫕죫ퟮ듳뮯,쯻늻떫튪좨뫢쪱웚T-1웳튵룟닺돶쮮욽쯹캪웤듸살룼뛠뎬닺붱뗄뗃폫쪱웚T튵훷뗄룟볆뮮횸뇪쯹퓬돉뗄뎬닺붱뗄쪧,뮹튪뾼싇쪧좥웤믹놾붱뷰BT뗄뿉쓜탔ꆣ듓쪽(11)훐,컒쏇뿉틔췆떼돶,웳튵퓚쪱웚T-1뗄닺돶퓶솿뛸캪웤맜샭헟퓚쪱웚T쯹퓬돉뗄쫕죫쯰쪧싊벴캪웤훕웚쫕죫YT뛔qT-1뗄욫떼쫽ꆣ평폚컒쏇볙뚨룃듺샭퓚쪱웚Tퟜ쫇톡퓱뺡웳튵뗄쪵볊짺닺쓜솦뛸짺닺,틲듋,룃맜샭헟퓚쪱웚T뗄웚췻쫕죫펦쫇ퟮ듳뮯뗄,벴YT,뛸YT(qδT,qυT)=MΑςqT(qT,qδT,qυT)ꆣ볙뚨bT-1=bT=b늢쟒qT=qυT,컒쏇뿉퓋폃쪽(3)쪽뗄붱샸뻶뚨믺훆늢퓋폃튻룶ZT살럖뾪믽럖쟸볤뛸뗃돶:YT(qδT,qυT)=(qυf(ΝST-qδT)}T+ꇒZT[bT)dΝT0(12)+ꇒꇞ[BT+b(qδT-qδT)]f(ΝT)dΝTZT퓚쪽(12)훐,ZT쯦믺뇤솿ΝT뗄쇙뷧횵ꆣ쯼뇭쪾횻폐떱ΝT듳폚ZT쪱,웳튵퓚쪱웚T뗄쪵볊짺닺쓜솦닅쓜ퟣ릻퓊탭웳튵췪돉춬웚튵훷뗄짺닺볆뮮ꆣ헢틢캶ퟅ횻폐Ν3ꇝZT쪱,닅믡폐qυTꇝqδTꆣ평폚횻폐떱ΝTꇝZT쪱,룃웳튵닅쓜췪돉훷뗄짺닺볆뮮,BT횻쫇돶쿖폚뗚뛾룶믽럖쿮훐ꆣ내헕뿂쇖뗈죋(Keren,etal,1983:353-354)뗄뷢쫍,ZT뗄뺭볃톧뗄몭틥쫇웳튵뗄ퟮ듳짺닺쓜솦폫튵훷뗄짺닺볆뮮횸뇪횮볤뗄닮뛮,벴:ZT=qδT-qT(12)듓뛸ZT뿉틔놻뾴돉쫇웳튵뗄짺닺쓜솦뒢놸(capacityreserve),믲헟쮵쫇ꆰ웳튵뗄틾뇎뒢놸ꆱ(hiddenreserve)ꆣ퓚쪵볹훐,쎿튻룶웳튵뗄맜샭헟ퟜ쫇ힷ쟳룼뛠뗄ꆰ틾뇎뒢놸ꆱ믲룼킡뗄ZT횵살좷놣듦웤믱뗃믹뷰붱뷰ꆣ룸뚨쪽(2)쯹뇭쪾뗄벬싖킧펦,웳튵퓚쪱웚T-1뗄룟닺돶쮮욽튻랽쏦믡쳡룟쪱웚T뗄볆뮮횸뇪,쇭튻랽쏦퓲믡붵뗍웳튵뗄ꆰ틾뇎뒢놸ꆱ,믲헟쮵퓶볓ZT뗄횵ꆣ냑뇪쪾벬싖킧펦뗄쪽(2a)듺죫쪽(12)뗃:Y[b(qυT-qδT-1-7qT-1+7qδT-1)}f(ΝT)dΝTT(qδT,qυT-1)=ST+ꇒZT0+ꇒꇞ(14)[BT+b(qυT-qδT-1-7qT-1+7qδT-1)]f(ΝT)dΝTZT-1뛔(14)뷸탐퇝쯣늢쟳떼,컒쏇뿉틔뗃돶웳튵퓚쪱웚T-1뗄닺돶퓶솿룸맜샭헟퓚쪱웚T쫕죫쯹퓬돉뗄뇟볊쯰쪧캪:YT=-b72∀Tf(ZT)7(15)qT21퓚쪽(15)훐,2bt캪쪱웚T듺샭뗄뎬닺붱샸뗄복짙싊(믲헟웳튵췪늻돉튵훷뗄짺닺볆뮮쪱뛔룃맜샭헟뗄쫕죫뗄돍랣퓶볓싊)ꆣBTf(ZT)7퓲뇭쪾떱qT퓶볓쪱,퓚쪱웚T룃듺샭믱뗃믹놾붱뷰BT뗄뿉쓜탔뗄붵뗍싊ꆣ33
ퟛ뫏웳튵퓚쪱웚T-1뗄닺돶퓶솿룸듺샭퓚쪱웚T-1뗄룶죋쫕죫쯹듸살뗄뗃폫룸웤퓚쪱웚T뗄쫕죫쯹퓬돉뗄쪧,뿉틔뗃돶:VT-1YT-1YT77=-)-BTf(1+ZT)(16)qT-1+=qT-1(1+b(1r)qT-1r1+r듓쪽(16)훐,컒쏇뿉틔뷸튻늽랢쿖듺샭ퟷ캪웳튵맜샭헟쫕죫ퟮ듳뮯뗄뻹뫢쳵볾캪:77b(1-)=BTf(ZT)(17)1+r1+r쪽(17)퓲뇭쪾웳튵퓚쪱웚T-1뗄닺돶퓶솿룸듺샭뗄룶죋쫕죫듸살뇟볊뺻쫕틦뗈폚웤뇟볊뺻돉놾ꆣ쿖퓚,죃컒쏇뷸튻늽럖컶튻쿂룸뚨쪽(17)뗄뻹뫢쳵볾,듺샭ퟷ캪웳튵뗄맜샭헟붫믡퓚쪱웚T-1뻶뚨웳튵닉좡뛠룟뗄닺돶쮮욽ꆣ평폚BTf(ZT)7뗄럖늼몯쫽펦룃뛔펦튻룶떥럥럖늼춼탎,쪽(17)뿉쓜폐솽룶ퟮ폅뷢ꆣ믹폚헢튻뗣,뿂쇖뗈죋(Keren,etal,1983)퓚쯻쏇뗄컄헂훐럖컶쇋탭뛠뢴퓓뗄뿉쓜탔쟩탎ꆣ떫쫇,퓚뿂쇖뗈죋럖컶훮훖뿉쓜뗄쟩탎쪱,쯻쏇쯆뫵뫶싔쇋웳튵뗄ꆰ틾뇎뒢놸ꆱ듓뫎뒦뛸살뗄컊쳢ꆣ믹폚쪽(1)뗄볙뚨,볙죧컒쏇뷸튻늽볙뚨웳튵퓚쪱웚T-1,T-2,T-3,ꆭꆭ튻횱떽쪱웚0뺡웤쪵볊짺닺쓜솦뛸짺닺,룃웳튵붫늻믡듦폐죎뫎ꆰ틾뇎뒢놸ꆱꆣ듓헢튻뗣짏살뾴,웳튵뗄ꆰ틾뇎뒢놸ꆱ뗄듦퓚,잡잡쫇돶폚듺샭뛔튵훷짺닺볆뮮훐뗄벬싖킧펦펰쿬뗄뾼싇뛸쇴듦뗄,믲헟쮵,폐폫쎻폐ꆰ틾뇎쓜솦뒢놸ꆱ믲ꆰ틾뇎쓜솦뒢놸ꆱ뗄솿뗄듳킡,췪좫좡뻶폚듺샭쫇럱뻶뚨웳튵뺡웤짺닺쓜솦뛸짺닺뗄뻶퓱ꆣ틲듋,퓚럖컶튻룶듺샭뛔벬싊킧펦뗄랴펦쪱,뾼싇쪽(17)뗄훖훖뗄뢴퓓뿉쓜탔뗄쟩탎쯆뫵늢늻첫훘튪ꆣ틲캪,룸뚨튻룶듺샭ퟷ캪맜샭헟뛔웳튵퓚쪱웚T뗄럇좷뚨탔틲쯘ΝT뗄웚췻횵,죧맻컒쏇뷸튻늽볙뚨웳튵퓚쪱웚T-1뾪쪼늢쎻폐죎뫎ꆰ틾뇎뒢놸ꆱ,쓇쎴,튻룶웳튵퓚쪱웚T-1쫇럱ퟮ듳뮯웤닺돶훁폚웤쪵볊짺닺쓜솦벫쿞,쪵볊짏벴쫇듺샭ퟷ캪맜샭헟뻶뚨웳튵쫇럱놣쇴튻킩ꆰ틾뇎쓜솦뒢놸ꆱ벰웤솿뗄듳킡뗄컊쳢ꆣ듓헢튻뗣돶랢,컒쏇죏캪,튪랢쿖벬싖킧펦퓚럇좷뚨탔뗄뮷뺳훐뛔듺샭뗄뚯첬탐캪뗄펰쿬,횻폐맀볆쯦믺뇤솿ΝT뗄웚췻횵뛔웳튵맜샭헟퓚쪱웚T뗄짺닺뻶닟뗄펰쿬뻍릻쇋ꆣ죧맻컒쏇볙뚨qT-1=qT,BT>0,r>0,늢쟒-rte<1,늢볙뚨듺샭ퟷ캪웳튵뗄맜샭헟쫇럧쿕훐솢뗄(risk2neutral),쯻붫믡퓚쪱웚T-1ힼ놸튻룶뻸뛔횵ûZTû듳킡뗄ꆰ틾뇎뒢놸ꆱ,살펦뢶퓚쪱웚T뗄늻좷뚨탔틲쯘웚췻횵E(ΝT),벴,û-ZTû=ûΝTûꆣ뛸퓚,퓚쪱웚T-1,웳튵뗄ퟮ폅짺닺쮮욽펦쫇:3qT-1=qT-1-ZT(18)햧뾴살,쪽(18)쯆뫵뇭쏷,퓚튻룶뚯첬뿲볜훐,벬싊킧펦붫쿞훆웳튵뗄짺닺ꆣ떫쫇,컒쏇뇘탫죏쪶떽,퓚쪽(18)훐틾몯ퟅ튻룶늻쏷쿔뗄볙뚨ꆣ헢뻍쫇,쪽훐늢쎻폐냑쪱웚T-1뗄늻좷뚨탔틲쯘ΝT-1쏷좷뇭쪾돶살ꆣ죧맻볙뚨ΝT-1=ΝT,헢춬쪱틢캶ퟅΝT-1=ΝT=ûZTû,쪽(18)잡잡틢캶ퟅ웳튵퓚쪱웚T-1ퟮ듳뮯닺돶떽웤쪵볊짺닺쓜솦벫쿞:qT-1ꇔ(qT-1-ΝT-1)ꆣ퓚쪵볹훐틠췹췹쫇죧듋ꆣ틲캪,웳튵맜샭헟뎣뎣쫇룹뻝놾웚뗄쪵볊늻좷뚨탔틲쯘Νt살맀쯣쿂웚뗄늻좷뚨탔틲쯘뗄웚췻횵ꆣꋙ듓헢튻뗣짏살뾴,쪽(18)쪵볊짏잡잡뇭쏷,벴쪹퓚튻룶럇좷뚨탔뗄퓋탐뮷뺳훐,튻룶럧쿕훐솢뗄맜샭헟틠믡쟣쿲폚톡퓱튻룶뷓뷼웳튵쪵볊짺닺쓜솦뗄닺돶쮮욽ꆣ죧맻맜샭ꋙ퇏룱쮵살,웳튵맜샭헟ퟮ뫃ퟮ춨맽뛔맽좥쯹폐쪱웚뗄늻좷뚨탔틲쯘Ν뗄샺쪷욽뻹횵살맀쯣쿂웚늻좷뚨탔틲쯘뗄웚췻횵ꆣ볙죧쯻쏇냑쪱볤뇤솿뾴ퟷ쫇샫즢뇤솿,Ν샺쪷욽뻹솿뗄맀볆쯣릫쪽캪:lim1nꇺꇞΝ(j)(jnꇆn=1,2,ꆭn쫇폃살볆쯣샺쪷j=1욽뻹솿뗄쪱웚쫽)ꆣ볙죧쪱볤뇤솿놻뾴ퟷ쫇솬탸뗄1,웤볆쯣캪:lim(t)dtꆣtꇒ1Νnꇺꇞ034
헟쫇럧쿕쟷뇜뗄(risk2averse),쯻붫믡내쿂쪽살뻶뚨웳튵뗄짺닺쮮욽:3qT-1<qT-1-ZT(19)쪽(9)뇭쏷,튻룶럧쿕쟷쫆뇜뗄맜샭헟붫늻믡ퟶ돶퓚쪱웚T-1ퟮ듳뮯웳튵닺돶떽웳튵뗄쪵볊짺닺쓜솦뗄뻶닟ꆣ횻폐퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,벬싖킧펦닅믡뛔웳튵뗄짺닺폐늻샻뗄쿞훆탔펰쿬ꆣ쇭췢,컒쏇튲튪뾴떽,믹놾붱샸뛮뗄듳킡튲뛔듺샭뗄짺닺뻶닟폐튻뚨뗄펰쿬ꆣ좷쟐뗘쮵,듺샭뗄짺닺뻶닟튲좡뻶폚쯻뗄믹놾붱샸폫뎬닺붱샸뗄뇈싊,벴BϖtöBtꆣ퓚웳튵췪돉튵훷뗄짺닺볆뮮쪱,듺샭쯹믱믹놾붱샸뗄쫽솿폺듳,믹놾붱샸폫뎬닺붱샸뗄뇈싊폺룟,튻룶럧쿕쟷뇜뗄맜샭헟폺쟣쿲폚퓚쪱웚T-1톡퓱튻룶룼뗍뗄닺돶쮮욽(떫늻믡뗍폚춬웚뗄볆뮮횸뇪쮮욽)ꆣ랴맽살틠죧듋ꆣ볙죧BTꇺ0,듺샭붫횻뾼싇bT뗄틲쯘ꆣ퓚듋쟩뿶쿂,늻맜튻룶듺샭쫇럧쿕훐솢뗄뮹쫇럧쿕뎬뇜뗄,쯻뚼믡퓚쪱웚T-1톡퓱뺡웳튵뗄쪵볊짺닺쓜솦뛸짺닺ꆣ틲듋,퓚BTꇺ0뗄쟩뿶쿂,벬싖킧펦컞싛퓚쪲쎴퇹뗄쟩뿶쿂뻹늻믡뛔듺샭뗄뚯첬짺닺탐캪폐뛠듳펰쿬ꆣ컥ꆢ뷡ꆡꆡ싛퓚짏쫶럖컶훐,믹폚듺샭ힷ쟳룶죋쫕죫쳹쿖횵뗄ퟮ듳뮯뻶뚨웳튵닺돶쮮욽뗄볙뚨,컒쏇뾼달쇋벬싖킧펦뛔듺샭뗄뚯첬탐캪뗄펰쿬ꆣ컒쏇랢쿖,볙죧튻룶웳튵쫇퓚튻룶좷뚨탔뗄뮷뺳훐퓋탐뗄,벬싖킧펦뛔듺샭뗄뚯첬짺닺탐캪늢늻믡폐뛠듳펰쿬ꆣ뛸춨맽퓋폃튻룶뷡뫏늻좷뚨탔폫벬싖킧펦퓚튻웰뗄뚯첬뿲볜ꆣ컒쏇뗄럖컶랢쿖,볙죧듺샭쫇럧쿕쟷뇜뗄,쯻쏇붫쟣쿲폚톡퓱튻룶뗍폚웳튵쪵볊짺닺쓜솦뗄닺돶쮮욽ꆣ돽듋횮췢,벬싖킧펦늢늻쿳죋쏇튻냣쿠탅뗄쓇퇹뛔웳튵뗄닺돶ퟮ듳뮯탐캪폐뫜듳뗄쿞훆ퟷ폃ꆣퟛ뫏뾼싇퓚좷뚨탔폫늻좷뚨탔퓋탐뮷뺳훐뗄듺샭탐캪뗄뚯첬쒣쪽,컒쏇뿉틔뗃돶틔쿂뷡싛:뗚튻,퓚튵훷캪듺샭훆뚨뗄볆뮮횸뇪뗄솬탸맽돌훐듦퓚벬싖킧펦뗄쟩뿶쿂,볙죧퓚쎿튻쪱웚뗄볆뮮횸뇪쫇뿉틔췪돉뗄,듺샭붫뻶뚨훁짙튪췪튵훷뗄볆뮮횸뇪ꆣ뗚뛾,폐탭뛠틲쯘탞헽벬싖킧펦뛔듺샭뗄뚯첬짺닺탐캪뗄펰쿬(쟫닎뾼Murrell,1977;Thornton,1978;Weitzman,1980;Kerenetal,1983)ꆣ틲듋,퓚맀솿벬싖킧펦뛔쎿튻룶듺샭뗄뚯첫탐캪뗄펰쿬쪱,횻폐ퟛ뫏뾼싇쎿튻룶웳튵뗄뻟쳥퓋탐뮷뺳,닅쓜뗃돶쫊떱뗄뷡싛ꆣ죧맻웳튵뗄퓋탐쳵볾랢짺쇋뇤뮯,벬싖킧펦뛔듺샭뗄뚯첬탐캪뗄펰쿬틠믡랢짺뇤뮯ꆣ튻냣쮵살,퓚웟쪮쓪듺떽냋쪮쓪듺훐웚,퇐뺿짧믡훷틥뺭볃뗄뒫춳톧헟듳훂쿠탅,벬싖킧펦믡떼훂탐헾뿘훆뺭볃훐뗄맺폐웳튵뗄맜샭헟톡퓱튻룶싔뎬맽헾뢮볆뮮횸뇪뗄닺돶쮮욽(볻Nove,1977;Dyker,1985:23-24;Bennett,1989:96ꆣ퓚헢킩톧헟훐,뷏폐펰쿬뗄쫇퇐뺿잰쯕솪뺭볃컊쳢뫍짧믡훷틥뺭볃쳥훆컊쳢뗄훸쏻톧헟낢샺뿋ꆤ억럲AlceNove)ꆣ듓컒쏇뗄샭싛럖컶훐뿉틔뗃돶,횻쓜폃맜샭헟쫇럧쿕쟷뇜뫍웳튵퓋탐뗄늻좷뚨탔헢솽뗣뷢쫍억럲뗈톧헟뛔뒫춳탐헾뿘훆뺭볃훐뒦폚벬싖킧펦펰쿬쿂뗄맺폐웳튵뗄뚯첬탐캪쒣쪽쯹ퟷ뗄헢훖에뛏ꆣ좻뛸,컒쏇뗄짏쫶럖컶좴뇭쏷,헢퇹뗄탐캪쒣쪽쯆뫵늢늻쫇듺샭뗄뚯첬탐캪뗄뗤탍쒣쪽ꆣ떱좻,죧맻컒쏇뾼싇떽퓚쿖쪵훐듳늿럖웳튵뻹쫇퓚튻룶쯦믺쫀뷧훐퓋ퟷ뗄,죧맻컒쏇뷸튻늽볙뚨듳뛠쫽듺샭뻹쫇럧쿕쟷뇜뗄,쓇쎴,벬싖킧펦붫떼훂헢킩듺샭ퟷ캪웳튵뗄맜샭헟뿉쓜믡톡퓱튻룶뻹퓈뗄(벴퓚쪱볤탲쇐훐늻쫇듳웰듳실뗄)늢쟒쫊훐뗄뎬뛮췪돉튵훷뗄볆뮮뗄짺닺쮮욽(Dyker,1095:24)ꆣퟜ횮,컒쏇뗄뷡싛쫇,벬싖킧펦뛔듺샭뗄뚯첬탐캪쯆폐튻킩펰쿬,떫헢킩펰쿬늢늻쫇쿱죋쏇튻냣쯹죏캪뗄쓇쎴듳ꆣ35
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