华中科技大学硕士学位论文我国公共投资最优规模分析姓名：别暄申请学位级别：硕士专业：西方经济学指导教师：罗传健2010-05
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 햪 튪 2008쓪뗄맺볊뷰죚캣믺퓬돉쇋쫀뷧뺭볃뗄쮥췋ꆣ캪쇋듙뷸뺭볃뗄랢햹ꎬ쫀뷧짏룷룶맺볒뚼볓듳쇋릫릲춶뗄솦뛈ꎬ컒맺튲쳡돶쇋쯄췲틚뗄릫릲춶볆뮮살삩듳쓚탨ꆢ뗷헻뷡릹ꆢ룄짆쏱짺ꎬ듙뷸뺭볃욽컈뷏뿬뗄랢햹ꆣ떫쫇맺쓚췢뗄톧헟퓚퇐뺿훐튲뇭쏷ꎬ릫릲춶뗄맦쒣뛔뺭볃폐헽랴솽룶랽쏦뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ삩듳릫릲춶뗄맦쒣ꎬ뿉틔듙뷸뺭볃퓶뎤ꎻ떫쫇쯦ퟅ릫릲춶맦쒣뗄퓶듳ꎬ튲믡떼훂닺돶킧싊뗍쿂ꎬ틖훆쮽죋춶뗈뗈ꆣ틲듋에뛏릫릲춶맦쒣뗄ퟮ폅맦쒣뻍벫캪훘튪ꆣ 놾컄쫗쿈뛔릫릲춶ꆢ릫릲춶ퟮ폅맦쒣뷸탐쇋뷏캪좫쏦뗄샭싛럖컶ꎬ늢럖컶쇋릫릲춶퓚뺭볃랢햹훐웰떽뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ뷓ퟅ럖컶쇋쒿잰컒맺릫릲춶맦쒣뗄쿖ힴ뫍헾뢮쫕횧맦쒣뗄뺭볃킧펦ꎬ늢퓋폃냍싞쒣탍릹붨돶컒맺릫릲춶ퟮ폅맦쒣쒣탍ꎬ뗃떽컒맺릫릲춶뗄ퟮ폅맦쒣횵ꎬ듓뛸뗃돶컒맺릫릲춶뗄맦쒣늢쎻폐듯떽뺭볃퓶뎤뗄튪쟳ꎬ탨튪뷸튻늽뗄삩듳릫릲춶뗄뷡싛ꆣퟮ뫳춨맽럖컶맺췢늻랢듯맺볒뗄릫릲춶뗄낸샽뫍컒맺릫릲춶듦퓚뗄컊쳢ꎬ쳡돶쇋뚯첬뷧뚨릫릲춶랶캧ꎬ헽좷틽떼릫릲춶뗄놾쇷쿲ꎬ틔듙뷸뺭볃뿬쯙퓶뎤ꎻ폅뮯릫릲춶맜샭쒣쪽ꎬ붨솢붡좫볠맜쳥쾵ꎬ놣횤뺭볃솼탔퓋탐ꎻ쏷좷릫릲춶뗄쒿뇪ꎬ퓶잿ퟔ훷뒴탂쓜솦ꎬ횧돖뺭볃뎤ퟣ랢햹ꎻ룄룯릫릲춶쳥훆ꎬ볓뿬퓶뎤랽쪽뇤ꎬ쳡짽뺭볃헻쳥훊솿뗈벸뗣붨틩ꆣ 맘볼듊ꎺ릫릲춶 ퟮ폅맦쒣 뺭볃퓶뎤 짺닺몯쫽 I
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 Abstract The international financial crisis in 2008 has set back the entire economy of the world. In order to stimulate the growth of economy, all nations in the world have increased investment strength in public investment. China has also brought forward a 4,000 billion project of public investment to expand domestic demand, adjust the structure, improve the living standard of people and as a result to promote economic development in a steady and fast way. However, focusing on the foreign and domestic research, it demonstrates that the scale of public investment has two sides toward economy. Expanding the scale of public investment can promote economic growth, while as the scale enlarges, it will lead to output inefficiency, private investment disincentives and so on. Therefore, judging the optimal scale of public investment is extremely important. Firstly, this paper theoretically and comprehensively analyzes public investment, the optimal scale of public investment and the part public investment plays in economic development. Then the present state of China’s public investment and the economic effect of government’s balance-of-payment scale are analyzed. The model of optimized scale of public investment is built through Barro Model and the optimal scale value of public investment is then obtained. This result shows that the scale of public investment does not reach the request of economic growth and further expanding in public investment is thus needed. Finally, through analyzing the problems related to public investments in both foreign underdeveloped countries and China, the author suggests the following measures: 1) Set dynamic limitations on public investment and ensure the capital flow be guided reasonably to boost economy growth; 2) Optimize the management model of public investment and deploy a comprehensive monitoring system to maintain a good economic operation; 3) Identify the goals of public investment and enhance the capability of independent innovation to ensure a long-term development; 4) Restructure the public investment system and accelerate the transformation of growth pattern to improve the quality of economy. Key words: public investment optimized scale economic development production function II
뛀뒴탔짹쏷 놾죋짹쏷쯹돊붻뗄톧캻싛컄쫇컒룶죋퓚떼쪦횸떼쿂뷸탐뗄퇐뺿릤ퟷ벰좡뗃뗄퇐뺿돉맻ꆣ뺡컒쯹횪ꎬ돽컄훐틑뺭뇪쏷틽폃뗄쓚죝췢ꎬ놾싛컄늻냼몬죎뫎웤쯻룶죋믲벯쳥틑뺭랢뇭믲킴맽뗄퇐뺿돉맻ꆣ뛔놾컄뗄퇐뺿ퟶ돶릱쿗뗄룶죋뫍벯쳥ꎬ뻹틑퓚컄훐틔쏷좷랽쪽뇪쏷ꆣ놾죋췪좫틢쪶떽ꎬ놾짹쏷뗄램싉뷡맻평놾죋돐떣ꆣ 톧캻싛컄ퟷ헟잩쏻ꎺ 죕웚ꎺ 쓪 퓂 죕 톧캻싛컄냦좨쪹폃쫚좨쫩 놾톧캻싛컄ퟷ헟췪좫쇋뷢톧킣폐맘놣쇴ꆢ쪹폃톧캻싛컄뗄맦뚨ꎬ벴ꎺ톧킣폐좨놣쇴늢쿲맺볒폐맘늿쏅믲믺릹쯍붻싛컄뗄뢴펡볾뫍뗧ퟓ냦ꎬ퓊탭싛컄놻닩퓄뫍뷨퓄ꆣ놾죋쫚좨뮪훐뿆벼듳톧뿉틔붫놾톧캻싛컄뗄좫늿믲늿럖쓚죝뇠죫폐맘쫽뻝뿢뷸탐볬쯷ꎬ뿉틔닉폃펰펡ꆢ쯵펡믲즨쏨뗈뢴훆쫖뛎놣듦뫍믣뇠놾톧캻싛컄ꆣ 놣쏜ꇵ ꎬ퓚_____쓪뷢쏜뫳쫊폃놾쫚좨쫩ꆣ 놾컄싛컄쫴폚 늻놣쏜ꇵꆣ ꎨ쟫퓚틔짏랽뿲쓚듲ꆰꇌꆱꎩ 톧캻싛컄ퟷ헟잩쏻ꎺ 횸떼뷌쪦잩쏻ꎺ 죕웚ꎺ 쓪 퓂 죕 죕웚ꎺ 쓪 퓂 죕
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 1 탷 싛 톡쳢뗄놳뺰뫍틢틥 룄룯뾪럅30쓪살ꎬ컒맺뷏캪돉릦뗄췪돉쇋볆뮮뺭볃쿲쫐뎡뺭볃뗄탍ꎬ훐맺놣돖ퟅ쓪뻹뷓뷼10%뗄뺭볃퓶뎤싊ꎬ퓚쫐뎡믺훆늢늻췪좫돉쫬뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ컒맺뺭볃랢햹뮹쫇틀뾿ퟅ쫐뎡믺훆뫍헾뢮룉풤쿠뷡뫏뗄쒣쪽퓋탐ꎬ뛸헾뢮뗄릫릲춶뛔폚헾뢮퓚쿖탐뺭볃훐랢믓뗄ퟷ폃뻙ퟣ쟡훘ꎬ맺쓚췢톧헟튻횱뚼퓚훂솦폚퇐뺿릫릲춶폫뺭볃퓶뎤뗄맘쾵ꎬ늢퓚듋믹뒡짏얬솦톰쟳릫릲춶ퟮ폅맦쒣뗄슷뺶ꎬ룹뻝쿠맘뗄춳볆쫽뻝뇭쏷ꎬ컒맺릫릲춶뗄맦쒣퓚늻뛏뗄뇤듳ꎬ1981쓪컒맺릫릲춶뗄맦쒣캪틚ꎬ떽쇋2006쓪컒맺릫릲춶뗄맦쒣뻍듯떽쇋틚풪ꎬ쿠뇈폚1981쓪퓶뎤쇋놶ꎬ만뚨닺춶쫇1981쓪뗄71놶ꎬ컒맺뗄맺쏱짺닺ퟜ횵쿠뇈폚1981쓪퓶뎤쇋38놶ꆣ릫릲춶뗄쓪뻹퓶뎤싊쏷쿔뗄킡폚만뚨닺춶뫍맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뗄쓪뻹퓶뎤싊ꎬ헢킩쫽뻝뇭쏷쇋컒맺릫릲춶뗄맦쒣뿉쓜듦퓚늻ퟣ뗄쟩뿶ꆣ 릫릲춶뗄ퟮ폅맦쒣튻횱쫇뺭볃톧퇐뺿뗄컊쳢횮튻ꎬ릫릲춶뗄맦쒣늻뷶뷶쫇랢듯맺볒탨튪퇐뺿뗄컊쳢ꎬ컒쏇랢햹훐맺볒뫍뺭볃맬뗄맺볒튲탨튪죏헦뗄쮼뾼헢룶컊쳢ꎬ떫쫇맘폚릫릲횧돶맦쒣폫뺭볃퓶뎤뗄맘쾵ꎬ룷맺뺭볃톧볒춨맽볆솿럖컶랽램늢쎻폐좡뗃튻훂뷡싛ꎬ쪵횤럖컶뷡싛뗄늻쿠튻훂, 만좻폫웤닉폃뗄퇹놾ꆢ뇤솿룶쫽ꆢ쯹뒦뺭볃훜웚틔벰맀볆쒣탍늻춬폐맘ꆣ떫뇊헟죏캪ꎬퟷ캪쫐뎡뺭볃훐뻟폐훘튪뗷뷚릦쓜뗄헾뢮룉풤쫖뛎ꎬ릫릲춶폫뺭볃퓶뎤듦퓚럇쿟탔맘솪맘쾵ꎬ룷맺헾뢮릫릲춶뗄뇟볊닺돶닅쫇릫릲춶맦쒣뗄잱퓚뗄뻶뚨틲쯘ꆣ 쒿잰컒맺릫릲춶듦퓚ퟅ뫜뛠컊쳢ꎬ죧헾뢮뗄뢺떣뇈뷏훘ꎬ릫릲춶뗄랶캧늻쟥돾ꎬ릫릲춶뗄뷡릹늻뫏샭뗈뗈ꎬ헢퇹헾뢮탨튪듓뫪맛닣쏦짏뛔뺭볃퓋탐뷸탐튻뚨뗄룉풤ꎬ헾뢮탨튪퓚뺭볃샭싛뗄횸떼쿂ꎬ닉좡헽좷뗄헾닟릤뻟살뷸탐릫릲춶ꎬ헢퇹훷튪닅쓜뗃떽믽벫뗄킧맻ꎬ듓뛸듙뷸뺭볃랢햹ꆣ뛸쟒퓚샭싛럖컶뗄믹뒡짏뮹탨튪듓쪵횤랽쏦뛔컒맺릫릲춶맦쒣뷸탐퇐뺿ꎬ듓뛸맛달컒맺헾뢮쒿잰뗄릫릲춶뗄맦쒣쫇럱뗃떱ꎬ릫릲춶쫇럱듙뷸쇋뺭볃뗄랢햹ꎬ뷸뛸뿉틔뛔컒쏇캴살뗄릫릲춶1
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 헾닟쳡릩폐샻뗄뷡싛ꎬ헢퇹뛔컒맺뺭볃랢햹뫍ퟛ뫏맺솦뗄쳡룟뚼뻟폐훘튪뗄쿖쪵틢틥ꆣ 컄쿗ퟛ쫶 릫릲춶뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄믽벫틢틥ꎬ뺡맜듓샭싛짏뗃떽쇋싛횤ꎬ떫쫇퓚쪵횤뗄틢틥짏ꎬ쿠맘퇐뺿쯹뗃떽뗄뷡싛늢늻튻훂ꆣퟮ돵뗄퇐뺿쟣쿲폚죏춬릫릲춶ꎬ쳘뇰쫇웤훐뗄믹뒡짨쪩춶뛔췆뚯뫪맛뺭볃퓶뎤틔벰쮽죋늿쏅퓶뎤뗄믽벫틢틥ꆣ떫쫇뫳살뗄컄쿗퓲뛔듋뷡싛쳡돶쇋훊틉ꎬ볈냼삨듓쒣탍벰쫽뻝쪹폃랽쏦쳡돶뗄늻춬뾴램ꎬ튲냼삨쪵횤뷡맻놾짭뗄닮틬ꆣ Khan뫍Reinhartꎨ1990ꎩ퓚뾼달쇋24룶랢햹훐맺볒뗄춶뫍뺭볃퓶뎤뗄맘쾵뫳ꎬ랢쿖쮽죋춶뇈릫릲춶뛔뺭볃퓶뎤폐룼듳뗄듙뷸ퟷ폃ꆣEvan(1994)뛔쏀맺48룶훝1970ꆪ1986쓪뗄쿠맘쫽뻝뷸탐럖컶ꎬNader뫍Migue(1997)춨맽뛔쒫컷룧춶쫽뻝뗄퇐뺿ꎬ랢쿖릫릲춶뛔쮽죋춶듦퓚쏷쿔뗄벷돶킧펦ꆣFisher(1998) 뗄퇐뺿뇭쏷ꎬ쮽죋늿쏅뗄춶삩헅듦퓚뛔릫릲춶삩헅뗄슷뺶틀삵ꆣ뛸Munnel(1990)ꆢRamirez(1993ꎬ1994)뗄퇐뺿퓲쿔쪾솽헟횮볤듦퓚쿠뮥뛀솢맘쾵뗄뷡싛ꆣ풽색퇎훎ꎨEtsuro Shiojiꎬ2001ꎩ춨맽뛔쏀맺뫍죕놾릫릲춶뗄뇈뷏ꎬ죏캪릫릲춶훐뗄믹뒡짨쪩춶뛔솽맺뺭볃퓶뎤폐믽벫틢틥ꆣAschauer (1989)춨맽뛔컷랽웟맺릫릲춶뫍뺭볃퓶뎤맘쾵뗄럖컶ꎬ죏캪릫릲춶훐뗄믹뒡짨쪩춶뛔뺭볃퓶뎤폐훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ쟒릫릲춶듳폚쮽죋춶뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄릱쿗ꆣ 룹뻝Barro(1990)ꆢEasterlyꎨ1992ꎩ샻폃쓚짺뺭볃퓶뎤샭싛뾼달쇋릫릲춶뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄뎤웚잱퓚펰쿬뗄쮼슷ꎬ훚뛠톧헟춨맽튻냣뻹뫢믲헟뚯첬튻냣뻹뫢쒣탍ꎬ붫헾뢮횧돶럖뷢캪짺닺탔뫍럇짺닺탔ꎬ퇐뺿룷룶ퟩ돉늿럖뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄펰쿬ꆣBarro죏캪짺닺탔뗄헾뢮횧돶냼삨춶죫떽쪵쪩닺좨뗄풴ꎬ틔벰횱뷓뷸죫짺닺몯쫽뗄믮뚯ꎬ퓚쏷컺닺좨쇬폲뗄헾뢮춶쫇춨맽틽웰뇟볊폐킧쮰싊뗄붵뗍살듙뷸뺭볃퓶뎤ꎬ뛸늻쫇뛔짺닺몯쫽횱뷓웰ퟷ폃ꆣDevarajanꎨ1996ꎩ췆떼돶헾뢮횧돶쫇떼훂룼룟뺭볃컈첬퓶뎤싊뗄쳵볾ꎬ헾뢮짺닺탔뗄믮뚯놻맣랺죏캪쫇뎤웚뺭볃퓶뎤뫍짺닺싊쳡룟뗄맘볼틲쯘ꆣVijverberg etal(1997)ꆢFisher etal(1998)뗈뗄퇐뺿컄쿗쳘뇰잿뗷릫릲춶2
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 삩헅뛔쮽죋춶킧싊쳡룟닺짺뗄믽벫틢틥ꆣ 슦뫩ꎨ2004ꎩ퇐뺿뗃돶ꎬ떱릫릲춶쳡릩뒿릫릲탔믹뒡짨쪩쪱ꎬ쓜릻닺짺쓚짺퓶뎤ꎬퟩ횯뎤웚뺭볃퓶뎤싊뗄뗝복ꎻ늢쟒뎤웚뺭볃퓶뎤싊쯦샍뚯솦뗄퓶볓뛸퓶볓ꎬ횻튪릫릲춶쓜릻쳡릩돤풣뗄릫릲믹뒡짨쪩ꎬ샍뚯솦뗄퓶뎤뻍쓜횱뷓쳡룟뺭볃퓶뎤싊ꆣ키?ꆢ릨쇹쳃ꎨ2003ꎩ붫헾뢮횧돶폫뺭볃퓶뎤뗄맘쾵퇐뺿삩햹떽뛠벶헾뢮ꎬ퓚럖좨쟩뿶쿂쳖싛훐퇫헾뢮뫍뗘랽헾뢮뗄릫릲춶ꆢ훐퇫헾뢮뗄틆횧뢶뗈폫뺭볃퓶뎤뗄맘쾵ꆣ 뛔폚컒맺릫릲춶ퟮ폅맦쒣뗄럖컶ꎬ맺쓚뗄뫜뛠톧헟뚼폃룷ퟔ뗄랽램뷸탐쇋맀볆ꎬ평폚룷훖풭틲ꎬ쯻쏇뗃떽뗄릫릲춶ퟮ폅맦쒣뗄랶캧폐뫜듳뗄늻춬ꆣ십쮩폑ꎨ2000ꎩ톡좡1979쓪ꆪ1998쓪쫽뻝맀볆돶컒맺릫릲춶뗄ퟮ폅맦쒣캪%ꎬꎻ쇵ힿ걂뫍폚뎤룯ꎨ2006ꎩ쿈릹붨돶쇋릫릲춶뗄뺭볃퓶뎤낼몯쫽ꎬ퓙톡좡1978쓪ꆪ1998쓪뗄쫽뻝ꎬ닉좡볆솿럖컶뗃돶릫릲춶뗄ퟮ폅맦쒣쫇22%ꎬ쯻죏캪죧맻쎻폐듯떽헢룶횵ꎬ퓲늻샻폚뺭볃뗄랢햹ꎬ잮웗럡뫍십쳭틭ꎨ2007ꎩ퓲튲춨맽튻룶뺭볃퓶뎤낼몯쫽ꎬ샻폃쇋1983쓪ꆪ2003쓪쫽뻝ꎬ맀볆돶컒맽릫릲춶뗄ퟮ폅맦쒣캪12%ꎬ틳잿ꎨ2007ꎩ뛔컒맺릫릲춶맦쒣킧싊럖컶닉좡뗄쫇ꆰAKꆱ짺닺몯쫽ꎬ쯻뗃떽뗄릫릲춶ퟮ폅맦쒣캪%ꎬ쯻죏캪컒맺쿖뷗뛎듦퓚릫릲춶맦쒣늻ퟣꆣ 퇐뺿랽램ꆢ쮼슷뫍뒴탂뗣 ꎨ1ꎩ퇐뺿랽램 놾컄퓚뛔릫릲춶ퟮ폅맦쒣뷸탐퇐뺿뗄맽돌훐ꎬ퓋폃쇋죧쿂뗄퇐뺿랽램:맦랶폫쪵횤쿠뷡뫏ꎻ뚨탔폫뚨솿쿠뷡뫏ꎻ튻냣폫쳘쫢쿠뷡뫏ꎻ맩쓉폫퇝틯쿠뷡뫏ꆣ맦랶폫쪵횤쿠뷡뫏ꎬ뻍쫇헫뛔퇐뺿훐뗄튻킩컊쳢ꎬ쿈듓맦랶뗄뷇뛈뛔ꆰ펦룃퓵퇹ꆱ뗄컊쳢뷸탐샭싛짏뗄첽쳖ꎬ좻뫳뛔쪵볊쟩뿶뷸탐럖컶ꎬ뛔샭싛뷸탐쪵횤볬퇩ꎬ듓뺭퇩짏믘듰ꆰ쫇퓵퇹ꆱ뗄컊쳢ꎻ뚨탔폫뚨솿쿠뷡뫏ꎬ뻍쫇뛔맦싉탔ꆢ쟷쫆탔뗄컊쳢ퟶ돶뚨탔럖컶ꎬ뛔돌뛈짏뫍쫽솿짏뗄컊쳢룸돶뚨솿뗄뷢뻶랽낸ꎬ튲뻍쫇퓚뚨탔뗄횸떼쿂뷸탐뚨솿뗄퇐뺿ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ퇐뺿쮼슷 3
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 놾컄뗄싟벭뷡릹뫍퇐뺿뿲볜캪ꎺ 뗚1헂캪탷싛ꎬ훷튪뷩짜쇋퇐뺿릫릲춶ퟮ폅맦쒣뗄놳뺰뫍틢틥ꎬ맺쓚췢쿠맘뗄컄쿗ퟛ쫶ꎬ틔벰컄헂뗄퇐뺿랽램뫍퇐뺿볜릹뗈뗈ꆣ 뗚2헂뷩짜릫릲춶뗄쿠맘샭싛ꆣ쫗쿈뛔릫릲춶뷸탐뚨틥ꎬ뷓ퟅ쏨쫶쇋컷랽릫릲춶샭싛뫍릫릲춶맦쒣ퟮ폅뮯뗄샭싛ꆣ 뗚3헂훷튪퓚쫗쿈럖컶쇋컒맺쒿잰릫릲춶뗄맦쒣쟩뿶ꎬ뷓ퟅ럖컶쇋헾뢮쫕횧맦쒣뗄뺭볃킧펦ꎬ늢퓋폃냍싞쒣탍릹붨릫릲춶ퟮ폅맀볆쒣탍믱뗃쇋릫릲춶ퟮ폅맦쒣횵ꆣ 뗚4헂춨맽맺췢랢듯뫍늻랢듯맺볒뗄낸샽럖컶쇋맺췢릫릲춶뗄쿠맘뺭퇩ꎬ퓚듋믹뒡짏뛔췢맺릫릲춶뗄뺭퇩뷸탐ퟜ뷡ꎬ듓뛸웰떽쇋뫜뫃뗄뷨본ퟷ폃ꆣ ퟮ뫳튻헂싛쫶쇋쒿잰컒맺릫릲춶듦퓚뗄컊쳢ꎬ좻뫳헫뛔탔뗘듓릫릲춶뗄랶캧ꆢ릫릲춶뗄맦쒣ꆢ릫릲춶뗄쳥훆틔벰릫릲춶뗄맜샭쒣쪽뗈벸룶랽쏦쳡돶쪵쿖컒맺릫릲춶ퟮ폅맦쒣뮯뗄뻟쳥춾뺶ꆣ ꎨ3ꎩ뒴탂뗣벰웤뫳탸퇐뺿쮼슷 놾컄퓚룅삨맺췢릫릲춶맦쒣뗄샭싛믹뒡짏ꎬ쫗쿈춨맽ퟜ솿뫍뚯첬짺닺몯쫽뛔릫릲춶폫뺭볃퓶뎤횮볤뗄맘쾵뷸탐샭싛럖컶ꎬ늢뗃돶뷡싛ꎺ릫릲춶춨맽횱뷓뗄놾탎돉뫍볤뷓뛔쮽죋춶뗄듌벤ꎬ뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뻟폐쏷쿔뗄듙뷸ퟷ폃ꎬ뛾헟돊쿖쿔훸뗄헽쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ늢퓋폃냍싞쒣탍릹붨릫릲춶ퟮ폅맀볆쒣탍ꎬ톡좡1983-2007쓪뗄쫽뻝뛔컒맺릫릲춶뗄ퟮ폅맦쒣뷸탐쇋쪵횤럖컶ꎬ믱뗃쇋릫릲춶ퟮ폅맦쒣횵ꆣ 퓚뛔컒맺릫릲춶ퟮ폅맦쒣뗄퇐뺿훐ꎬ뇊헟죏캪뿉틔퇘ퟅ릫릲춶돉놾폫릫릲춶쫕틦뻹뫢뗄럖컶쮼쿫뷸튻늽짮죫ꎬ릹붨릫릲춶돉놾몯쫽뫍릫릲춶쫕틦몯쫽ꎬ늢춨맽쟳뷢솽룶몯쫽뗄뻹뫢횵에뛏릫릲춶ퟮ폅맦쒣ꎬ튻웰ퟷ캪릫릲춶풤쯣뗄튻룶닎뾼횸뇪ꎬ룼뫃랢믓릫릲춶뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄듙뷸ퟷ폃ꎬ뇜쏢쎤쒿맽뛈춶ꎬ쪹릫릲춶뗄킧폃듯떽엁샛췐ퟮ폅ꆣ 4
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 2 릫릲춶ퟮ폅맦쒣샭싛럖컶 뎤웚틔살ꎬ릫릲춶퓚쳡릩믹뒡짨쪩뫍릫릲닺욷ꆢ췆뚯뺭볃퓶뎤ꆢ뗷뷚뺭볃훜웚ꆢ뗷헻뺭볃뷡릹뫍킭뗷쟸폲뺭볃랢햹뗈랽쏦튻횱냧퇝ퟅ훘튪뷇즫ꆣ쯦ퟅ짧믡뺭볃뗄늻뛏랢햹ꎬ릫릲춶뗄룅쓮튲퓚랢짺늻뛏뗄뇤뮯ꎬ캪쇋랽뇣틔뫳룼뫃뗄럖컶퇐뺿ꎬ놾컄쯦뫳닻쫶쇋릫릲춶뗄뚨틥벰웤쿠맘뗄룅쓮뫍샭싛ꆣ 릫릲춶뗄뚨틥 릫릲컯욷뗄뚨틥 릫릲컯욷쫇횸릫릲쪹폃믲쿻럑뗄컯욷ꆣ훷튪냼삨맺럀ꆢ훎낲ꆢ램싉ꆢ릫릲믹뒡짨쪩ꆢ훘듳뿆퇐돉맻ꆢ믹뒡틥컱뷌폽ꆢ릫릲컀짺놣붡ꆢ짧믡놣헏뫍릫릲뢣샻훆뛈ꎬ뗈뗈ꆣ릫릲컯욷쫇뿉틔릩짧믡돉풱릲춬쿭폃뗄컯욷ꎬ퇏룱틢틥짏뗄릫릲컯욷뻟폐럇뺺헹탔뫍럇업쯻탔ꆣ 내헕릫릲컯욷뗄탔훊ꎬ릫릲컯욷내헕뿉틔럖캪틔쿂죽샠ꎺ뗚튻샠쫇뒿릫릲컯욷ꎬ벴춬쪱뻟폐럇업쯻탔뫍럇뺺헹탔ꎬ죧맺럀뫍슷뗆뗈뗈ꎬ춨뎣닉폃쏢럑쳡릩뗄랽쪽ꎻ뗚뛾샠릫릲컯욷뗄쳘뗣쫇쿻럑짏뻟폐럇뺺헹탔ꎬ떫쫇좴뿉틔뷏쟡틗뗘ퟶ떽업쯻ꎬ폐톧헟붫헢샠컯욷탎쿳뗘돆캪뻣샖늿컯욷ꎻ뗚죽샠릫릲컯욷폫뻣샖늿컯욷룕뫃쿠랴ꎬ벴퓚쿻럑짏뻟폐뺺헹탔ꎬ떫쫇좴컞램폐킧뗘업쯻ꎬ폐톧헟붫헢샠컯욷돆캪릲춬풴ꎬ죧틥컱뷌폽ꆢ릫릲춼쫩망ꆢ늩컯망ꆢ릫풰뗈ꆣ 릫릲춶뗄뚨틥 캪쇋랽쏦샭뷢릫릲춶뗄뚨틥ꎬ쫗쿈컒쏇쿈살쇋뷢춶뗄뚨틥ꎬ십뿋쮼죏캪ꎬ춶뿉틔쪹믵뇒뮻돉짺닺놾ꎬ죸뛻즭횸돶춶쫇쪵볊놾뗄탎돉튻튻듦믵뗄퓶볓솿ꎬ믲짺닺탂뗄릤뎧ꆢ랿컝믲릤뻟ꆣퟜ뗄살쮵ꎬ릫릲춶튻냣폃폚럇업쯻탔뫍쿻럑뗄럇뺺헹탔뗄뒿릫릲닺욷믲럾컱ꆣ평폚뛔릫릲닺욷뗄랶캧뫍헾뢮뗄늻춬탐캪뗄늻춬샭뷢ꎬ뺭볃톧볒뛔릫릲춶뗄뚨틥벰웤췢퇓튲폐ퟅ늻춬뗄맛뗣ꆣ 5
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 릫릲춶벴헾뢮춶ꎬ쫇틔헾뢮캪훷쳥랢짺뗄춶탐캪ꎬ쯼냼삨솽샠ꎺ튻샠쫇폃폚짺닺뗄놾탔횧돶ꎬ쇭튻샠쫇폃폚쿻럑뗄놾탔횧돶ꆣ잰헟퓚릫릲풤쯣훐쳥쿖캪뺭볃붨짨샠횧돶ꎬ냼삨믹놾붨짨횧돶ꆢ웳튵췚잱룄퓬ꆢ퓶늦쇷뚯뷰뗈쿮쒿ꎻ뫳헟냼삨룷훖돇쿧릫폃짨쪩뗄춶ꎬ죧룸쮮ꆢ업컛ꆢ뮷컀ꆢ릫풰ꆢ싌뗘ꆢ늩컯망ꆢ춼쫩망뗈붨짨쿮쒿ꆣ듓춶폫쿻럑뗄맘쾵살뾴ꎬ폃폚쿻럑뗄놾탔횧돶퓚쿖쪵훐뻟폐ꆰ벴웚춶ꆢ뿧웚쿻럑ꆱ뗄쳘뗣ꎬ벴헢킩쿮쒿탞붨쪱쫓캪춶ꎬ떫쪵볊폃폚쿻럑ꎬ듸살뗄쫇킧폃ꎬ뛸늻쫇쿖뷰쇷ꆣ뺡맜헢솽샠놾탔횧돶뻟폐늻춬뗄탔훊ꎬ떫폐튻룶릲춬뗣ꎬ벴뚼쫇닆뢻뗄믽샛ꎬ뛸늻쫇떱쓪뗄쿻뫄ꆣ헽쫇퓚헢룶틢틥짏ꎬ쯼쏇뚼쫇쫴폚춶ꆣ Holtz-Eakin퓚럖컶쏀맺릫릲춶뗄탎돉폫퓶뎤쪱ꎬ붫릫릲춶내헕웤ퟮ훕폃춾럖캪쯄샠ꎺ뗚튻샠쫇뷌폽춶ꎻ뗚뛾샠쫇뗀슷틔벰룟쯙릫슷춶ꎻ뗚죽샠쫇컛쮮뒦샭짨쪩춶ꎻퟮ뫳쫇릫폃쫂튵춶ꆣ퓚Etsuro Shioji뗄퇐뺿훐ꎬ붫짏쏦쇐뻙뗄뫳죽샠뫏늢돆캪믹뒡짨쪩샠릫릲춶ꎬ듓뛸폫뷌폽샠릫릲춶ퟩ돉캪솽룶샠뇰ꆣ 컒맺ꎬ평폚짧믡뺭볃쳥훆뗄쳘쫢탔ꎬ릫릲춶튻냣횸릫릲늿쏅춶뺭볃훷쳥풤쿈뗦횧튻뚨쫽솿뗄믵뇒믲웤쯻풴ꎨ죧룷훖쪵컯ꎩꎬ붫웤춶죫떽뺭볃믮뚯틔믱좡쿠펦뗄뺭볃쫕틦뗄튻훖탐캪ꆣ헢샯뗄릫릲춶훷쳥횸뻟놸뛀솢춶뻶닟좨뗄늢돐떣쿠펦춶퓰죎뗄맺볒믺릹벰웤쯹쫴뗄웳쫂튵떥캻ꎬ쯼튻냣춨맽횱뷓춶ꎨ뗦횧믵뇒놾ꎩ뫍볤뷓춶ꎨ틔뷰죚닺랽쪽춶ꎩ솽훖춶랽쪽살듌벤짧믡짺닺쓜솦퓶볓ꆣ틲듋ꎬ퓚헾뢮벰웤쯹쫴뗄웳쫂튵떥캻훐틔룼탂뫍퓶볓짧믡짺닺쓜솦캪훷뗄짺닺탔춶벴쫇뛔릫릲춶뗄ꆰ폐훐맺쳘즫ꆱ뗄뚨틥ꆣ 릫릲춶뗄ퟮ폅맦쒣뗄쿠맘샭싛 릫릲춶뗄ퟮ폅맦쒣뗄쿠맘샭싛뗄훷튪쫇춨맽뢣샻뺭볃톧뫍릫릲톡퓱샭싛살퇐뺿ꎬ뢣샻뺭볃톧쫇틔튻뚨뗄볛횵에뛏캪돶랢뗣ꎬ튲뻍쫇룹뻝틑좷뚨뗄짧믡쒿뇪ꎬ붨솢샭싛쳥쾵ꎻ틔뇟볊킧폃믹쫽싛믲뇟볊킧폃탲쫽싛캪믹뒡ꎬ붨솢뢣샻룅쓮ꎻ틔짧믡쒿뇪뫍뢣샻샭싛캪틀뻝ꎬ훆뚨뺭볃헾닟랽낸ꆣ뛸릫릲톡퓱샭싛ꎨPublic choice theoryꎩ쫇튻훖틔쿖듺뺭볃톧럖컶쏱훷솢쿜훆헾뢮뗄룷훖컊쳢뗄톧뿆ꎬ뒫춳짏쫇쫴6
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 폚헾훎톧뗄랶돫ꎨ뛔듋룼캪웕뇩뗄돆뫴퓲쫇ꆰ헾훎뺭볃톧ꆱꎩꆣ릫릲톡퓱샭싛튲닉폃탭뛠늻춬뗄퇐뺿릤뻟뷸탐퇐뺿ꎬ냼삨쇋퇐뺿뛔킧폃ퟮ듳뮯뗄뻖쿞ꆢ늩?싛ꆢ믲뻶닟싛ꆣ 뇟볊킧폃샭싛 뇟볊킧폃샭싛(marginal utility theory)쫇냑짧믡돉풱퓚쿻럑릫릲컯욷훐믱뗃뗄뇟볊킧폃ꎬ폫헢킩죋쿲헾뢮쓉쮰ꎨ캪릫릲컯욷죚ꎩ뗄뇟볊뢺킧폃솪쾵퓚튻웰ꎬ좷뚨릫릲횧돶뗄ퟮ폅맦쒣ꆣ 릫릲컯욷뗄뇟볊킧폃 E뗣캪뻹뫢뗣 Aꎨ+ꎩ BMUpgCDEFO헾뢮풤쯣쓉쮰뗄 a뇟볊뢺 b킧폃 cꎨ-ꎩ MDt 춼 릫릲컯욷ퟮ폅엤훃뗄뇟볊킧폃샭싛 릫릲컯욷뗄뇟볊킧폃ꎨMUPGꎩ튲뻍쫇짧믡뇟볊킧폃ꎨMSUꎩꎬ쓉쮰뗄뇟볊뢺킧폃ꎨMDtꎩ튲뿉틔뾴ퟶ쫇틲쓉쮰뛸럅웺뗄쮽죋뇟볊킧폃ꎨMPUꎩꆣ릫릲늿쏅폫쮽죋늿쏅볤뗄ퟮ폅풴엤훃ꎬ튲벴릫릲컯욷뫍쮽죋컯욷뗄ퟮ폅릩룸랢짺퓚MUPG=MDt뗄뗣짏ꎬ믲헟쮵ꎬ퓚룃뗣ꎬMSU=MPUꆣ 늿쏅볤ퟮ폅풴엤훃뗄잰쳡쳵볾쫇ꎺ쎿튻늿쏅엤훃뗄룷훖뺭볃컯욷ꎬ웤뇟볊킧폃퓚룃늿쏅쓚쿠뗈ꆣ죧춼쯹쪾퓚D뗣ꎺMUpg> MDt믲MSU>MPUꎬ 릫릲컯욷엤훃늻ퟣꆢ쮽죋컯욷엤훃맽뛈ꎬ퓚F뗣ꎺMUpg< MDt믲MSU<MPUꎬ7
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 릫릲컯욷엤훃맽뛈ꆢ쮽죋컯욷엤훃늻ퟣꎬ퓚E뗣ꎺ MUpg =MDt 믲MSU=MPUꎬ릫릲컯욷뫍쮽죋컯욷뗄늿쏅볤엤훃ퟮ폅ꆣ ퟮ듳짧믡쫕틦샭싛 ퟮ듳짧믡쫕틦샭싛쳡돶릫릲늿쏅퓚듓쫂죎뫎믮뚯쪱ꎬ펦떱톡퓱쪹웤짧믡쫕틦ퟮ듳쿞뛈뗘뎬맽웤돉놾뗄랽낸ꎬ늢쟒뺡뿉쓜늻듓쫂웤쫕틦캴뎬맽돉놾뗄믮뚯ꆣ죎뫎럻뫏릫릲샻틦뗄릫릲늿쏅뗄믮뚯ꎬ뇘탫춨맽ퟮ킡볬퇩ꎨminimum testꎩꎬ늢쟒캪쇋믱뗃ퟮ듳뗄짧믡쫕틦ꎬ릫릲뻶닟헟뇘탫톡퓱쓇훖쪹짧믡쫕틦뎬맽짧믡돉놾뗄폠뛮ퟮ듳뮯뗄랽낸ꆣ 죧춼쯹쪾ꎬ춼훐냑짺닺뫍뺭펪쒳훖릫릲컯욷뗄짧믡쫕틦폫웤짧믡돉놾솪쾵퓚튻웰ꎬ헢훖맘쾵폃짧믡ퟜ쫕틦ꎨTSBꎩ쟺쿟뇭쪾ꆣ헢쳵TSB쟺쿟뇭쏷ꎬ헾뢮뮨럑퓚룃릫릲컯욷짏뗄뗚튻룶1풪ꎬ릫쏱뗄횧뢶틢풸뫜듳ꎬ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬퟅ1풪릫릲횧돶뗄짧믡볛횵뫜듳ꆣ뿉쫇ꎬ쯦ퟅ횧돶뗄퓶볓ꎬ쎿퓶볓1풪쯹닺짺뗄짧믡볛횵풽살풽킡ꆣ듓TSB쟺쿟뗄탎ힴ살뾴ꎬ쯦ퟅ릫릲횧돶풽살풽뛠ꎬ룃쟺쿟뇤뗃풽살풽욽뮺ꆣ 짧믡쫕틦TSBcbaO1300 301닆헾횧돶ꎨ풪ꎩ 퓶볓1 풪닆헾횧돶뗄짧믡쫕틦 춼 짺닺뫍뺭펪릫릲컯욷뗄짧믡쫕틦폫짧믡돉놾 뺭볃톧풭샭룦쯟컒쏇ꎺ떱짧믡뇟볊쫕틦뗈폚짧믡뇟볊돉놾쫇ꎬ짧믡뺻쫕틦ퟮ듳ꆣ8
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 릫릲춶뗄ퟮ폅맦쒣ꎺ늻싛쫇쎿튻쇬폲뗄릫릲횧돶뮹쫇릫릲횧돶ퟜ뛮ꎬ뚼펦떱붫웤맦쒣퓶볓떽웤짧믡뇟볊쫕틦뗈폚짧믡뇟볊돉놾뗄쓇튻뗣ꎬ헢쪱릫릲횧돶뗄짧믡뺻쫕틦ퟮ듳ꆣ죧춼2ꆣ3쯹쪾떱짧믡뇟볊돉놾쟺쿟뫍짧믡뇟볊쫕틦쟺쿟쿠붻쪱ꎬ릫릲춶뗄뇟볊쫕틦뫍릫릲춶뗄뇟볊돉놾쿠뗈ꎬ내헕짏쏦뗄샭싛살쮵ꎬOA뻍쫇릫릲춶뗄ퟮ폅맦쒣ꆣ 짧믡ퟜ돉놾쟺쿟 TSC짧짧믡믡쫕돉TSB짧믡ퟜ쫕틦쟺쿟 틦놾bc45ꇣO닆헾횧돶A짧짧믡믡쫕돉틦놾OA캪릫릲춶뗄ퟮ폅맦쒣 dMSC짧믡뇟볊돉놾쟺쿟 짧믡뇟볊쫕틦쟺쿟 MSBO닆헾횧돶A 춼 릫릲횧돶ퟮ폅맦쒣 ퟔ풸붻뮻샭싛ꎺ쇖듯뛻뻹뫢 쇖듯뛻뻹뫢뗄믹놾쮼슷쫇풴엤훃룸릫릲늿쏅뗄랽쪽펦떱폫쫐뎡훐볛룱훆뛈엤훃풴뗄랽쪽튻퇹ꆣ벴ꎺ룶죋펦떱춨맽쓉쮰살릺싲릫릲컯욷ꎬ뻍쿱쯻춨맽쫐뎡볛룱살톡릺쮽죋컯욷튻퇹ꆪꆪ쫊폃뇪ힼ뗄쿻럑헟ꆰ싺ퟣퟮ듳뮯ꆱ풭퓲ꆣ쇖듯뛻뻹뫢볙뚨ꎺꆰ쿻럑헟ꆪꆪ쓉쮰죋ꆱ뇭슶돶웤뛔릫릲컯욷뗄헦쪵욫뫃ꆣ룶죋횮볤뫍좺쳥횮볤뗄쫕9
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 죫럖엤쫇볈뚨뗄ꎬ뛸쟒짧믡냑쫕죫럖엤ힴ뿶뾴ퟶꆰ릫헽뗄뫍쫊떱뗄ꆱꆣ 쇖듯뛻죏캪릫릲닺욷볛룱늢럇좡뻶폚쒳킩헾훎톡퓱믺훆뫍잿훆탔쮰쫕ꎬ잡잡쿠랴ꎬ쎿룶죋뚼쏦쇙ퟅ룹뻝ퟔ벺틢풸좷뚨뗄볛룱ꎬ늢뻹뿉내헕헢훖볛룱릺싲릫릲닺욷ퟜ솿ꆣ뒦폚뻹뫢ힴ첬쪱ꎬ헢킩볛룱쪹쎿룶죋탨튪뗄릫폃닺욷솿쿠춬ꎬ늢폫펦룃쳡릩뗄릫폃닺욷솿놣돖튻훂ꆣ틲캪쎿룶죋릺싲늢쿻럑쇋릫폃닺욷뗄ퟜ닺솿ꎬ내헕헢킩볛룱뗄릩룸잡뫃뻍쫇룷룶룶죋횧뢶볛룱뗄ퟜ뫍ꆣ쇖듯뛻뻹뫢쪹죋쏇뛔릫릲닺욷뗄릩룸쮮욽컊쳢좡뗃쇋튻훂ꎬ벴럖첯뗄돉놾폫뇟볊쫕틦돉뇈샽ꆣퟜ횮ꎬ쇖듯뛻뻹뫢횸룶죋뛔릫릲닺욷뗄릩룸쮮욽틔벰쯼쏇횮볤뗄돉놾럖엤뷸탐쳖볛뮹볛ꎬ늢쪵쿖쳖볛뮹볛뗄뻹뫢ꆣ 쇖듯뛻춨맽튻룶탂뗄뚨볛랽램살붨솢웰튻룶샠쯆폚쮽죋컯욷뺺헹탔뻹뫢뗄릫릲컯욷뗄뻹뫢쒣탍ꎬ돆캪쇖듯뛻뻹뫢ꆣ퓚쇖듯뛻뗄뻹뫢훐ꎬ늻쫇쯹폐쿻럑헟쏦쇙튻룶릫릲뗄ꎨ쿠춬뗄ꎩ볛룱ꎬ뛸쫇좫늿쿻럑헟폐튻룶릫릲뗄쫽솿ꎻ늻쫇ퟜ닺솿퓚좫쳥쿻럑헟횮볤럖엤ꎬ뛸쫇ퟜ돉놾퓚쿻럑헟횮볤럖첯ꆣ틲듋ꎬ튪뺡솿쪹쎿룶쿻럑헟쏦쇙뗄볛룱럻뫏웤뛔릫릲컯욷뗄헦쪵움볛ꎨ믲욫뫃ꎩꆣ헢퇹뻍쪹뗃쿻럑헟풸틢횧뢶뗄볛룱ퟜ뫍헽뫃뗈폚릫릲컯욷뗄ퟜ돉놾ꆣ폚쫇짺닺뗄풼쫸쳵볾뻍뇤돉ퟜ쫕죫뗈폚ퟜ돉놾ꆣ 쇖듯뛻뻹뫢뗄뷢뻍쫇퓚헽뎣샻죳캪쇣뗄풼쫸쳵볾쿂ꎬ쪹릫릲닺욷뗄뚨볛닉좡폫쿻럑헟뗄탨쟳떯탔쿠맘뗄랽쪽살좷뚨ꎬ벴틀뻝쎿룶쿻럑헟뛔릫릲컯욷뗄늻춬움볛ꎬ럖뇰좷뚨늻춬뗄볛룱ꆣ 릫릲톡퓱샭싛 쿖듺쏱훷짧믡훐ꎬ헾훎돌탲튲쫇릫릲컯욷릩룸뗄튻룶뻶뚨틲쯘ꆣ퓚릫릲늿쏅훐ꎬ풴엤훃뗄뻶닟쫇튻훖벯쳥톡퓱ꎺ룶죋춶욱톡돶듺뇭ꎬ평듺뇭뇭듯좫쳥톡쏱뗄틢볻믲욫뫃ꎬ뛔헾훎볒뻶뚨뗄릫릲횧돶쮮욽ퟷ돶뇭뻶ꎬퟮ훕탎돉닆헾횧돶맦쒣ꆣ 10
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 쫕틔뇟볊돉놾틦킧뫍폃뇟뇭볊쪾A돉뗄놾뇟볊뇟볊쫕틦O헾뢮횧돶G*킧폃O G*캪릫릲춶ퟮ폅맦쒣 O헾뢮횧돶G* 춼 죋쏇톡퓱욫뫃뗄ퟮ폅릫릲횧돶쮮욽 쮽죋컯욷뗄뇟볊킧폃풽듳ꎬ듓뛸틔킧폃쮮욽뇭쪾뗄릫릲컯욷뗄뇟볊돉놾ꎨ럅웺쮽죋컯욷뗄쿻럑ꎩ붫퓶볓ꆣ평듋뿉볻ꎬ퓚릫릲횧돶쮮욽뷏뗍쪱ꎬ릫릲컯욷뗄뺻뇟볊쫕틦ꎨ뇟볊쫕틦복뇟볊돉놾ꎩ캪헽ꎬ럱퓲ꎬ릫릲컯욷뗄뺻뇟볊쫕틦캪뢺ꆣ틲듋ꎬ죋쏇톡퓱뗄릫릲횧돶쮮욽쮮욷쫇킧폃ퟮ듳뮯뗄횧돶쮮욽ꎬ믲퓲쮵쫇뺻뇟볊쫕틦캪쇣뗄횧돶쮮욽ꎨG*ꎩꆣ죧춼쯹쪾ꎬ릫릲춶뗄ퟮ폅맦쒣퓚뗣ꎨG*ꎩꆣ 11
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 3 컒맺릫릲춶ퟮ폅맦쒣뗄쪵횤럖컶 컒맺릫릲춶맦쒣뗄쿖ힴ럖컶 죧뇭쯹쪾ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔쏷좷뗄뾴돶ꎬ듓1981쓪떽2007쓪컒맺뗄릫릲춶뗄맦쒣튻횱퓚퓶볓ꎬ떽2007쓪틑뺭듯떽쇋틚췲ꎬ쿠뇈폫1981쓪뗄틚췲ꎬ퓶뎤쇋붫뷼36놶ꎬ춬퇹만뚨닺춶뛮퓚2007쓪퓶뎤훁틚풪ꎬ쿠뇈폚1981쓪뗄틚풪뗄110놶ꎬ폫횮샠쯆뗄쫇맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵튲듓1981쓪뗄틚풪퓶뎤훁쇋틚풪ꎬ퓶뎤쇋뷼51놶ꆣ 뇭 컒맺뷼30쓪살릫릲춶맦쒣뗄뇤뮯쟩뿶 릫릲춶릫릲춶 좫짧믡만뚨닺춶맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵릫릲춶햼좫짧믡만쓪럝 햼GDP뗄뛮ꎨ틚풪ꎩ ꎨ틚풪ꎩ 뚨닺춶뇈훘 ꎨ틚풪ꎩ 뇈훘 1981 % % 1982 % % 1983 % % 1984 % % 1985 % % 1986 % % 1987 % % 1988 % % 1989 % % 1990 % % 1991 % % 1992 % % 1993 % % 1994 % % 1995 % % 1996 % % 1997 % % 1998 % % 1999 % % 2000 % % 2001 % % 2002 % % 2003 % % 2004 % % 2005 % % 2006 % % 2007 % % 쇏살풴ꎺ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꎨ2008ꎩꎬ뺭헻샭뗃떽ꆣ 12
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 듓춼뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ릫릲춶뛮ꆢ만뚨닺춶뛮뫍맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뚼퓚쿲짏퓶뎤ꎬ떫쫇쏷쿔뗄뿉틔뾴돶릫릲춶뗄퓶뎤싊킡폚만뚨닺춶뛮뫍맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뗄퓶뎤싊ꎬ듓춼뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ릫릲춶햼만뚨닺춶뗄뇈샽듓1981쓪뗄%쿂붵떽1996쓪뗄%ꎬ좻뫳듓1997뗄%뮺싽짏짽떽2002쓪뗄%ꎬ듓2003쓪뾪쪼폖뾪쪼믘실ꎬ평듋뿉볻ꎬ릫릲춶뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈룺늻짏만뚨닺춶뛮뫍맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈ꎬ릫릲춶뗄맦쒣쎻폐듯떽뺭볃퓶뎤쯹탨튪뗄튪쟳ꆣ 쫽횵쓪럝릫릲춶좫짧믡만뚨닺맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵ꎨ틚풪ꎩ춶뛮ꎨ틚풪ꎩꎨ틚풪ꎩ 춼 1981-2007쓪릫릲춶ꆢ만뚨닺춶뫍맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵퓶뎤뛮 %%%%%%%%%%쓪럝릫릲춶햼좫짧믡릫릲춶만뚨닺춶뇈훘햼GDP뗄뇈훘 춼 1981-2007쓪릫릲춶햼만뚨닺춶뫍GDP뗄뇈샽뇤뮯춼 13 냙럖뇈700260025002704002026002300250022002400231000022200002021002999100028999199187999911799619916991599159914949199139399911299129911991199109910999819188998911789188916891789158916488919138598191289148911891389128911891
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 컒맺릫릲춶뗄ퟮ폅맦쒣뗄쪵횤럖컶 릫릲춶맦쒣ퟮ폅뮯뗄샭싛럖컶 퓚Barroꎨ1990ꎩ릹붨뗄쓚짺퓶뎤쒣탍훐ꎬ릫릲춶쫇ퟷ캪뇤솿쓉죫짺닺몯쫽ꎬ펰쿬쮽죋놾뗄뇟볊짺닺싊ꎬ듓뛸펰쿬쓚짺뺭볃퓶뎤ꆣ놾컄쪹폃냍싞뗄헾뢮횧돶쓚짺퓶뎤쒣탍살럖컶릫릲춶햼맺쏱짺닺ퟜ횵뇈훘,듓뛸살좷뚨릫릲춶뗄ퟮ폅맦쒣ꆣ 볙짨퓚튻룶럢뇕뗄뺭볃쳥쓚ꎬ폐듳솿뗄컞쿞짺쏼훜웚뗄듺뇭탔볒춥ꎬ쯻쏇뚼퓚톰쟳웤킧폃ퟮ듳뮯ꎬ웤킧폃몯쫽캪ꎺ ∞−ρtU=u(c)edt () ∫0웤훐c캪죋뻹쿻럑ꎬρ>0캪쪱볤욫뫃쾵쫽ꎬ볙뚨죋뿚놣돖늻뇤ꆣ볙짨룃몯쫽캪벴웚킧폃몯쫽ꎬꎨꎩ쪽뿉뮯캪 1−σc−1u(c)=ꎬσ>0쟒σ≠1 1−σ =Lnc ꎬσ=1 () 짨볒춥뗄짺닺몯쫽캪y=f(k) y캪죋뻹욽뻹닺돶솿ꎬk캪죋뻹놾펵폐솿ꆣ볙짨릤ퟷ쪱볤튻뚨ꎬ벴쒣탍훐샍뚯솦늻뾼싇릤ퟷ폫쿐쾾뗄좡짡ꆣ퓲쪹ꎨ1ꎩ훐볒춥킧폃ퟮ듳뮯뗄뻹뫢쳵볾캪ꎺ •c(t)1'=()(f−ρ) () c(t)σ볙뚨짺닺몯쫽맦쒣쫕틦늻뇤ꎨf''=0ꎩꎬ짺닺몯쫽뿉룄킴캪ꎺ y=Ak () A듺뇭놾뗄뇟볊짺닺쮮욽ꆣ 평쪽뿉뗃ꎬf'=Aꎬ듺죫()쪽뿉뗃ꎺ •1c(t)γ===.ꎨA-ρꎩ () c(t)σ cky뺭볃뒦폚컈첬쪱ꎬ쿻럑퓶뎤싊ꆢ놾퓶뎤싊뫍뺭볃퓶뎤싊펦룃쿠뗈ꎬ벴==ꎬcky14
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 볙짨γ듺뇭ퟅ뺭볃퓶뎤싊ꎬ쟒뺭볃퓶뎤싊캪헽ꎬ춬쪱볒춥킧폃늻랢즢ꎬ퓲펦룃폐쿂쏦늻뗈쪽ꎺ A>ρ>A(1-σ) () 룸뚨돵쪼뗄놾듦솿k(0)ꎬ퓲c(0)=k(0)(A−ρ)ꆣ춬쪱볙짨듺뇭탔볒춥쳡릩1떥캻샍뚯춶죫ꎬ벴n=0;L(t)=1ꎨ늢쟒ꎬ볙뚨룶죋풤쯣풼쫸쯦헾뢮헷쮰뛸뇤뮯ꎩꆣ 쿖뾼싇헾뢮횧돶뛔뺭볃뗄펰쿬ꆣ볙짨g캪헾뢮쿲쎿룶볒춥쳡릩뗄짺닺탔횧돶ꎬ냍싞죏캪헾뢮컄뮯뷌폽횧돶ꆢ헾뢮맺럀럑횧돶뫍뺭볃붨짨횧돶뚼펦떱놻쫓ퟷ쫇짺닺탔횧돶ꆣ릫릲춶뫍쮽죋춶튻웰듙뷸뺭볃퓶뎤ꎬ냍싞죏캪벴쪹퓚쮽죋춶냼삨죋솦놾춶뫍럇죋솦놾춶쟩뿶쿂ꎬ죧맻헾뢮춶죫맦쒣늻쯦ퟅ쮽죋춶맦쒣뗄삩듳뛸퓶볓춶죫ꎬ쓇쎴헻룶짧믡짺닺튲믡돊쿖맦쒣킧틦뗝복쟷쫆ꆣ 볙짨놾춶죫맦쒣쫕틦늻뇤ꎬ퓲짺닺몯쫽뿉킴돉ꎺ gy=Φ(k,g)=k⋅φ() () k몯쫽뗄뇟볊짺닺싊캪헽쫽뛸쟒뗝복ꎬ쟒Φ'>0ꆢΦ''<0ꆣ볙뚨짺닺몯쫽쫇뿆늼ꆪ뗀룱삭쮹짺닺몯쫽ꎬ폚쫇폐ꎺ 1−ααY(t)=aK(t)G(t)ꎬ 0<α<1 () 볙뚨헾뢮횧돶췪좫살ퟔ폚쮰쫕ꎬ폚쫇폐ꎺ gg=T=τy=τ⋅k⋅φ() () kT쫇헾뢮쫕죫ꎬτ쫇쮰싊ꆣ 룹뻝쪽ꎬ퓚놣돖g늻뇤뗄쟩뿶폫ꎬ놾뗄뇟볊짺닺싊캪ꎺ ∂yggg=φ()⋅(1−φ'⋅)=φ()⋅(1−η) () ∂kkykη쫇g뛔y뗄닺돶떯탔ꎨ뛔룸뚨튻룶k살쮵ꎩꆣ g늻뇤틢캶ퟅ헾뢮횧돶쮮욽늻쫜쮽죋짺닺헟룄뇤놾춶죫뫍닺돶쮮욽뗄펰쿬ꆣ퓚쮰싊캪τ뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ쮽죋놾뇟볊짺닺싊캪(1-τ)(∂y∂k)ꎬ웤훐∂y∂k평()쪽룸뚨ꎬ틲듋ꎬ쿻럑퓶뎤싊캪ꎺ 15
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 c1gγ==⋅[(1−τ)⋅ϕ()⋅(1−η)−ρ] () σk볙짨돵쪼뗄놾듦솿캪k0ꎬ틲캪쿻럑퓶뎤싊뗈폚놾퓶뎤싊ꎬ돵쪼쿻럑캪ꎺ ()gc(0)= k0⋅[(1−τ)⋅ϕ()−γ] () ()k = [y0−g0]⋅k(0) ()()퓚()쪽훐ꎬ쮰싊퓶볓ꎬ뺭볃퓶뎤싊믡복짙ꎬ헾뢮쫕횧맦쒣퓶볓ꎬg뛔y뗄닺돶떯탔믡붵뗍ꎬ∂y∂k믡퓶볓ꎬ뺭볃퓶뎤싊듓뛸믡쳡룟ꆣ헾뢮쫕횧맦쒣뷏킡쪱ꎬ쯼뛔뺭볃펰쿬뇈뷏듳ꎬ삩듳헾뢮쫕횧맦쒣믡쳡룟뺭볃퓶뎤싊ꎬ뛸떱헾뢮쫕횧맦쒣뷏듳쪱ꎬ쮰싊뛔뺭볃펰쿬뇈뷏듳ꎬ볌탸삩듳헾뢮쫕횧믡쫇붵뗍뺭볃퓶뎤ꆣ 릫릲춶맦쒣뇤뮯뛔뺭볃뗄ퟷ폃킧맻폐헽랴솽랽쏦뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ튻랽쏦삩듳헾뢮횧돶뿉쓜퓶잿헾뢮뗷뿘뺭볃뗄쓜솦ꎬ폖믲헟뿉틔듙뷸뺭볃퓶뎤ꎬ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ헾뢮횧돶맦쒣뗄삩듳뻍뿉쓜듸살닺돶킧싊뗍쿂ꎬ틖훆쮽죋춶ꆣ틲듋ꎬ에뛏릫릲춶맦쒣뗄ꆰ뛈ꆱ뗄뷧쿞훁맘훘튪ꆣ 컒쏇듓쇭췢튻룶뷇뛈살럖컶릫릲춶맦쒣뗄훘튪탔ꆣ 퓚뺺헹탔뗄뺭볃훐폐탭뛠쿠춬뗄웳튵릹돉ꎬ톡퓱튻룶듺뇭탔뗄웳튵ꎬ웤Cobbꆪ1−ααDouglas짺닺몯쫽뇭쪾캪ꎺY(t)=aK(t)G(t)ꎻY(t)듺뇭뺭볃닺솿ꎬK(t)듺뇭놾듦솿ꎬG(t)뇭쪾릫릲놾듦솿ꎬ 1−αα1−αα퓲i(t)=(1−α)aK(t)G(t)ꎻW(t)=aαK(t)G(t) 볙짨헾뢮춨맽헷쮰ꎨ틔쯹뗃쮰탎쪽ꎩ돯벯닆헾쫕죫ꎬ좻뫳폃폚릫릲믹뒡짨쪩춶••G(t)ꆢ릫릲쿻럑Cp(t)ꆢ튻듎탔틆횧뢶Tp(t)뫍춶늹쳹θK(t)ꆣ죧맻헾뢮쫇욽뫢풤쯣닆헾헾닟ꎬ퓲웤풤쯣풼쫸캪ꎺ ••••T(t)=G(t)+Cp(t)+Tp(t)+θK(t)=G(t)+θK(t)+ϕT(t) ϕ뗈폚헾뢮쮰쫕쫕죫폃틆횧뢶ꎨϕꎩ뫍릫릲쿻럑ꎨϕꎩ뇈샽횮뫍ꆡ0iϕqꆡ1qꎬ12쯹뗃쮰싊τ∈ꎨ0ꎬ1ꎩꎬ춶늹쳹θ∈ꎨ0ꎬ1ꎩꆣ ••퓲볒춥뗄풤쯣풼쫸캪ꎺC(t)+K(t)=[W(t)+i(t)K(t)](1−τ)+θK(t)+Tp(t) 16
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 γ(−C+(W+iK)(1−τ)+Tp)퓲H(∗)=U(C)+ꆣ 1−θퟮ폅뮯쳵볾캪ꎺ ••1−τ−C+(W+iK)(1−τ)+Tpγ=U(C)(1−θ)ꎻγ=γρ−()iꎻK= c1−θ1−θ1−αα틑횪T(t)=τaK(t)G(t)ꎬ퓲 ••••1−αα1−αατaK(t)G(t)=G(t)+θK(t)+ϕT(t)⇒G(t)=τaK(t)G(t)(1−ϕ)−θK(t) 1−αα1−αα평i(t)=(1−α)aK(t)G(t)ꆢW(t)=aαK(t)G(t)뫍뚨틥 1−ααTp(t)=ϕτaK(t)G(t)ꎬ 1퓲욽뫢퓶뎤뗄뺭볃믮뚯뿉틔폃쿂쇐캢럖랽돌뇭쪾ꎺ •C11−τ1−αα=(−ρ+(1−α)()aK(t)G(t)) () Cσ1−θ•KC11−τ(1−ϕ)11−αα=−+aK(t)G(t) () KK1−θ1−θ•GK()θ(1−τ(1−ϕ))tθC(t)1−α1=a()(τ(1−ϕ)−)+ () GG(t)1−θ1−θG(t)룹뻝캢럖랽돌쯹쏨쫶뗄뺭볃컈뚨퓶뎤슷뺶뫍쿠맘샭싛럖컶ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔뗃돶틔쿂벸룶볙짨쏼쳢ꎺ(1)ꆢ릫릲춶춨맽횱뷓놾탎돉퓶볓놾듦솿ꎬ듙뷸뺭볃퓶뎤ꆣ(2)ꆢ릫릲놾춶뿉틔뗖복쮽죋놾듦솿퓶볓틽웰뗄뇟볊닺솿쿂붵ꎬ놣횤뺭볃욽컈뗘퓶뎤ꆣ(3)ꆢ릫릲춶틧돶뗄헽킧펦ꎬ뿉틽훂쮽죋춶퓶볓ꎬ볤뷓펰쿬뺭볃퓶뎤ꆣ(4)ꆢ헾뢮릫릲춶뿉쓜믡뛔쮽죋춶닺짺벷돶킧펦ꆣ헢폖듓쇭췢튻룶뷇뛈쮵쏷쇋좷뚨릫릲춶맦쒣뗄훘튪탔ꎬ쯹틔쿂쏦컒쏇샻폃냍싞쒣탍뗄짺닺몯쫽램살뷸탐릫릲춶ퟮ폅맦쒣뗄쪵횤럖컶ꎬ살좷뚨릫릲춶맦쒣뗄듳킡ꆣ 컒맺릫릲춶ퟮ폅맦쒣뗄쪵횤럖컶 놾컄룹뻝믹폚냍싞쒣탍뗄짺닺몯쫽램살뷸탐릫릲춶ퟮ폅맦쒣뗄쪵횤럖컶ꎬ볙뚨맺쏱뺭볃ퟜ닺돶뗄짺닺몯쫽캪Y= FꎨKꎬN ꎬG/N ꎩ 웤훐ꎬ Y뇭쪾쪵볊GDPꎬK쫇쪵볊쮽죋뫍헾뢮뗄놾듦솿ꎬN쫇뻍튵뗄샍뚯솦쫽17
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 솿ꎬG캪헾뢮횧돶ꆣ볙짨룃몯쫽뛔폚쪱볤뛾듎뿉캢ꎬ맘폚KꆢNꆢG쫇튻뷗웫듎뗄ꎬ쪹몯쫽뛔쪱볤쟳튻뷗떼ꎬ늢솽뇟퓙돽틔Y뿉틔뗃떽 dYꎱdFdNNꎱdFdKꎱꏇdFdgꎱ=++ dtYdNdtYNdKdtYꏧdꏇdtYdFNdFdF**볙짨α=ꆢMPK=ꆢMPG=ꎬ쿠뛔펦뇤솿뛔쪱볤뗄떼쫽캪YꆢNꆢdNYdKdG**Kꆢgꎬ퓲짏쪽뿉뮯캪 ****YNKgG=α+ MPK +MPG () YNYgY웤훐α쫇샍뚯뗄닺돶떯탔ꎬMPK캪놾뗄뇟볊닺돶ꎬMPG쫇헾뢮횧돶뗄뇟볊닺돶ꆣg= G/N, g듺뇭욽뻹쎿룶뻍튵뗄죋쯹뗃떽뗄쪵볊뗄헾뢮횧돶ꆣ 냍싞ꎨ1990ꎩ냑헾뢮탐캪틽죫쇋짺닺몯쫽훐ꎬ뺭맽췆떼뗃돶쇋냍싞램퓲ꎬ냍싞램퓲죏캪떱헾뢮횧돶뗄뇟볊닺욷캪1쪱ꎬ헾뢮횧돶뗄맦쒣듯떽ퟮ폅쮮욽ꎬ헢룶튲쫇헾뢮맦쒣뗄ퟔ좻킧싊쳵볾ꆣ벴볙짨떱헾뢮횧돶G캪ퟮ폅쪱ꎬMPG=1,헢쪱헾뢮횧돶뗄닺돶떯탔펦폫헾뢮횧돶뗄맦쒣쿠춬ꆣ쯹틔릫릲춶뗄ퟮ폅맦쒣뻍뗈폚헾뢮횧돶뗄닺돶떯탔ꆣ틲듋ꎬ컒쏇맀볆돶헾뢮횧돶뗄닺돶떯탔횮뫳ꎬ뻍쓜릻맀볆돶헾뢮횧돶뗄ퟮ폅맦쒣ꆣ 볙짨헾뢮횧돶G뗄닺돶떯탔캪ꛃ=MPGꎨG/Yꎩ뫍헾뢮맦쒣캪s=G/Yꎬ평짏쏦뗄럖컶횪뗀ꎬ죧맻튪쪹헾뢮횧돶뗄맦쒣듯떽ퟮ폅ꎬ쓇쎴뻍탨튪s=ꛃꆣ쓇쎴()쪽뿉틔뇤뮯캪ꎺ ****YNKg=α+ β + γ () YNYg뷓ퟅ붫()쪽뮯캪맀볆헾뢮ퟮ폅맦쒣뗄쒣탍 벴y=c+αn+βk+γg+ε 웤훐ꎬ웤훐ꎬy듺뇭헦쪵맺쏱짺닺ퟜ횵뗄퓶뎤싊ꎬc캪뎣쫽ꎻn듺뇭뻍튵죋쫽퓶뎤싊ꎻk듺뇭놾듦솿햼맺쏱짺닺ퟜ횵뗄뇈샽ꎻg욽뻹쎿룶뻍튵뗄죋쯹뗃떽뗄쪵볊뗄헾뢮횧돶ꎻε듺뇭쯦믺컳닮쿮ꆣꛁꆢβ뫍ꛃ쫇듽맀닎쫽ꎬ쓇쎴릫릲춶ퟮ폅맦쒣뻍쫇랽돌훐g뗄쾵쫽ꛃꆣ 18
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 ꎨ1ꎩ퇹놾쫽뻝쮵쏷 놾컄닉폃뗄쫇1983-2007쓪뗄쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝ꎬ살럖컶컒맺릫릲춶ퟮ폅맦쒣ꎬ뻟쳥쫽뻝뗄쏨쫶죧쿂ꎺ 1ꆢ쪵볊GDP퓶뎤싊뗄퇹놾쫽뻝ꎺ웤횸뇪맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뗄퓶뎤싊살뇭쪾ꎬ쪵볊GDP쫇폃믹웚쓪뗄볛룱쮮욽볆쯣ꎬ헢샯컒쏇톡퓱1978쓪ퟷ캪믹웚쓪ꆣ쫽뻝살풴폚ꎺꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ 2ꆢ뻍튵죋쫽퓶뎤싊뗄퇹놾쫽뻝ꎺ퓚볆쯣샍뚯뗄춶죫솿뗄퓶뎤싊쪱ꎬ컒쏇톡퓱닉폃샍뚯헟죋쫽ꎬ튻냣닉폃뻍튵죋풱쫽ꎬ벴폃뻍튵죋풱쫽솿뗄퓶뎤싊듺쳦샍뚯솦뗄춶죫솿뗄퓶뎤싊ꆣ쫽뻝살풴폚ꎺꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ 3ꆢ놾듦솿퓶뎤맦쒣햼GDP뗄뇈훘뗄퇹놾쫽뻝ꎺ평폚컒맺쎻폐ힼ좷뗄놾듦솿뗄쫽뻝ꎬ놾컄닢쯣랽램닉폃Goldsmith폚1951쓪뗄폀탸엌듦램ꎬ폀탸엌듦램뗄믹놾릫쪽캪놨룦웚놾탎돉듦솿뺻뛮=짏쓪놾탎돉듦솿뺻뛮-놨룦웚헛뻉뛮+놨룦웚놾탎돉(쇷솿)ꎬ쯼뗄쫽톧릫쪽캪ꎺK=I+(1-α) Kꎬ웤훐K뇭쪾t쓪뗄컯훊tttt−1t놾듦솿ꎬI뇭쪾t쓪뗄춶ꎬα뇭쪾t쓪뗄헛뻉싊ꆣ뺭맽볆쯣컒맺1983쓪놾듦솿tt뗄쫽뻝캻틚풪ꎬ틔뫳뗄쓪럝내헕듋릫쪽뗷헻볆쯣뗃돶놾듦솿K횵ꎬ돽틔헦쪵맺쏱짺닺ퟜ횵뻍뿉뗃떽kꆣ 4ꆢ죋뻹헾뢮횧돶퓶뎤싊뗄쫽뻝ꎺ내헕ꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ뗄쫽뻝뗃떽헾뢮횧돶뗄쫽뻝ꎬ돽틔뻍튵죋쫽볆쯣뿉틔뗃떽룃쫽뻝ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ떥캻룹볬퇩 퓚퓋폃믘맩랽램퇐뺿쪱ꎬ튪힢틢풭탲쇐쫇럱욽컈ꎬ죧맻춨맽믘맩볬퇩랢쿖쪱볤탲쇐횮볤뗄맘쾵뇈뷏쏷쿔ꎬ떫쫇풭탲쇐늻욽컈ꎬ헢훖믘맩뻍쫇ꆰ캱믘맩ꆱꎬ뻍쫇틲캪풭탲쇐늻욽컈ꆣ틲캪놾컄닉폃뗄쪱볤탲쇐뗄쫽뻝ꎬ쯹틔컒쏇탨튪뷸탐욽컈탔볬퇩ꎬ볬퇩욽컈탔뗄뎣폃랽램쫇떥캻룹볬퇩ꎬ벴볬퇩풭탲쇐쫇럱듦퓚떥캻룹ꎬ죧맻늻듦퓚떥캻룹ꎬ퓲쮵쏷풭탲쇐쫇욽컈뗄ꆣ뎣폃뗄떥캻룹볬퇩랽램쫇ADF볬퇩ꎬ웤믘맩랽돌쪽캪ꎺ p∆Y=β+βt+δY+α∆Y+ε t12t−1∑it−iti=1H:δ=0 019
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 죧맻볬퇩뷡맻뇭쏷δ캪0ꎬ퓲쮵쏷뇤솿쫇떥캻룹맽돌I(1)ꎻ죴δ쿔훸늻캪0ꎬ퓲뇭쏷뇤솿쫇튻컈뚨맽돌I(0)ꆣ 놾컄닉폃헢훖랽램살볬퇩뇤솿뗄욽컈탔ꎬ뗷폃Eviews뗄Unit Root Test돌탲ꎬ럖뇰뛔쮽죋춶ꎨkꎩꆢ릫릲춶(g)ꆢ샍뚯춶죫ꎨnꎩ뫍맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵(y)뷸탐욽컈탔볬퇩ꎬ뷡맻죧쿂ꎺ 뇭 욽컈탔볬퇩뷡맻 뇤솿 볬퇩탎쪽 ADF볬퇩춳볆솿횵 쇙뷧횵 y ꎨC,N,1ꎩ n (C,N,1) k (C,N,1) g (C,T,1) Dy (C,N,1) Dn (C,N,1) Dk (C,N,1) Dg (C,T,1) 힢쫍ꎺC뇭쪾듦퓚뎣쫽쿮ꎬT뇭쪾듦퓚쪱볤쟷쫆ꎬN뇭쪾늻듦퓚ꆣ 평틔짏뗄뷡맻뿉틔뗃돶ꎬ쪱볤탲쇐yꆢnꆢkꆢg뗄ADF볬퇩춳볆솿횵듳폚쇙뷧횵ꎬ뇭쏷쯼쏇쫇럇욽컈쪱볤탲쇐ꎬ뛸쯼쏇룷ퟔ뗄닮럖탲쇐DyꆢDnꆢDkꆢDg뗄ADF볬퇩춳볆솿횵킡폚쇙뷧횵ꎬ뇭쏷쯼쏇쫇욽컈쪱볤탲쇐ꎬ퓲뿉틔쮵쏷뇤솿yꆢnꆢkꆢg럾듓I(1)맽돌뗄쪱볤탲쇐ꎬ맊늻쓜횱뷓뷸탐믘맩럖컶ꎬ뛸횻쓜닉폃킭헻랽램볬퇩쯼쏇횮볤뗄뎤웚뻹뫢맘쾵ꆣ ꎨ3ꎩ킭헻볬퇩폫쪵횤뷡맻 뇤솿탲쇐횮볤뗄킭헻맘쾵쫇평Engle뫍Granger쫗쿈쳡돶뗄ꆣ웤믹놾쮼쿫퓚폚ꎬ뺡맜솽룶믲솽룶틔짏뗄뇤솿탲쇐캪럇욽컈탲쇐ꎬ떫쯼쏇뗄쒳훖쿟탔ퟩ뫏좴뿉쓜돊쿖컈뚨탔ꎬ퓲헢솽룶뇤솿횮볤뇣듦퓚뎤웚컈뚨맘쾵벴킭헻맘쾵ꆣ 뛔폚럾듓I(1)맽돌뗄뇤솿뗄킭헻볬퇩ꎬ컒쏇폐솽훖킭헻볬퇩뗄랽램ꎺ튻훖쫇믹폚믘맩닐닮뗄EG솽늽램킭헻볬퇩ꎻ쇭튻훖쫇믹믘맩쾵쫽뗄Johansenꎨ1988ꎩ볬퇩ꎬJohansen(1988)뫍Juseliusꎨ1990ꎩ쳡돶쇋튻훖퓚VAR쾵춳쿂폃벫듳쯆좻맀볆살볬20
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 퇩뛠뇤솿볤킭헻맘쾵뗄랽램ꎬ벴Johansen킭헻볬퇩ꎬ웤믹놾쮼슷쫇퓚VAR쾵춳쿂믘맩릹퓬솽룶닐닮뗄믽뻘헳ꎬ볆쯣뻘헳뗄폐탲놾헷횵ꎬ룹뻝놾헷횵뗃돶튻쾵쇐뗄춳볆솿ꎬ듓뛸에뛏킭헻맘쾵쫇럱듦퓚뫍킭헻맘쾵뗄룶쫽ꆣ쯼뿉폃폚볬퇩뛠룶뇤솿ꎬ늢쟳돶쯼쏇횮볤뗄죴룉훖킭헻맘쾵ꎬ놾컄닉폃뗄뻍쫇헢훖랽램ꎬ볬퇩뷡맻죧쿂ꎺ 뇭 Johnsen킭헻볬퇩뗄뷡맻 쳘헷횵 쯆좻뇈 5%쇙뷧횵 1%쇙뷧횵 킭헻룶쫽쇣볙짨 None ** At most 1 ** At most 2 * At most 3 듓짏쏦뗄뷡맻뿉틔뗃돶ꎬ뇤솿YꆢNꆢKꆢG횮볤듦퓚킭헻맘쾵ꎬ벴ꎺ Y=+++ ꎨꎩ () () () 듓짏쏦뗄맀볆랽돌훐뿉틔뗃돶ꎺ듓튵죋쫽뗄닺돶떯탔캪ꎻ놾듦솿뗄닺돶떯탔캪ꎻ헾뢮횧돶뗄닺돶떯탔캪ꆣ놾듦솿뗄닺돶떯탔캪ꎬ쮵쏷놾듦솿뛔GDP닺짺튻뚨뗄듙뷸ퟷ폃ꎬ헢폫쒿잰뗄쟩뿶뫜럻뫏ꆣ듓튵죋쫽뗄닺돶떯탔캪ꆣ헢쮵쏷뻍튵죋쫽뗄퓶볓뿉틔벫듳뗄듙뷸뺭볃뗄랢햹ꆣ쳡룟뻍튵죋쫽ꎬ쫇컒쏇펦떱뷢뻶뗄컊쳢ꆣ헾뢮횧돶뗄닺돶떯탔풼캪ꎬ뇭쏷헾뢮횧돶뗄닺돶떯탔뛔맺쏱짺닺닺돶뗄쳡룟폐튻뚨뗄퓶뎤ퟷ폃ꎬ벴헾뢮횧돶쎿퓶볓1%ꎬ GDP욽뻹퓶볓%ꆣ퓚횮잰뗄럖컶훐떱헾뢮횧돶뗄뇟볊닺돶캪1쪱ꎬ헾뢮횧돶뗄닺돶떯탔펦폫헾뢮횧돶뗄맦쒣쿠춬ꎬ벴헾뢮횧돶햼GDP뗄%쪱ꎬ릫릲춶폐ퟮ폅맦쒣ꆣ폖춨맽볆쯣1983-2007쓪릫릲춶뫍헾뢮횧돶뗄맘쾵ꎬ뗃돶릫릲춶햼헾뢮횧돶욽뻹뇈훘캪%ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔맀쯣돶릫릲춶뗄ퟮ폅맦쒣캪%ꆣ 놾컄샻폃1983ꆪ2007쓪뗄쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝ꎬ룹뻝냍싞쒣탍릹붨릫릲춶ퟮ폅맦쒣맀볆쒣탍ꎬ럖컶믱뗃쇋릫릲춶ퟮ폅맦쒣캪%ꎬ쯤좻헢룶맀볆횵늢늻쓜쪮럖횱맛ힼ좷뗄쮵쏷컒맺쿖쪵뗄릫릲춶ퟮ폅맦쒣ꎬ떫듓튻뚨돌뛈짏캪릫릲춶헻쳥뻶닟쳡릩닎뾼횸뇪횵ꆣ 21
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 4 맺췢릫릲춶뗄낸샽럖컶 맺췢랢듯놾훷틥맺볒퓚춨맽퓚릫폃쫂튵ꆢ릫릲쫂튵랽쏦믽벫컼틽쮽죋놾닎폫살랢햹릫릲춶ꎬ늢쟒훆뚨쇋폫릫릲춶쿠맘뗄램싉ꎬ쳡룟릫릲춶뗄킧싊ꎬ훘쫓춨맽랢햹릫릲춶살뷢뻶짧믡컊쳢ꎬ듓뛸듙뷸뺭볃랢햹뫍짧믡컈뚨ꆣ떫컒쏇맺볒쫴폚랢햹훐맺볒ꎬ쯹틔컒쏇쿂쏦ퟅ훘뷩짜쇋튻킩랢햹훐맺볒릫릲춶뗄낸샽ꎬ듓뛸뛔컒맺릫릲춶뗄헾닟웰떽튻뚨뗄뷨본ퟷ폃ꆣ 맺췢릫릲춶뗄낸샽럖컶 펡뛈릫릲횧돶뗄킧맻 춨맽뛔펡뛈1970-1993쓪볤뗄맺볒춳볆쫽뻝퇐뺿뇭쏷ꎬ펡뛈헾뢮뛔폚퓚뗀슷춶랽쏦퓶볓뗄횧돶뻟폐ퟮ듳뗄복욶킧맻ꎬ뛔짺닺솦뗄쳡룟폐춬퇹뗄쿔훸돉킧ꆣ퓚쯹폐샠탍뗄춶훐ꎬ뻟폐ퟮ듳췑욶킧맻뗄쫇뗀슷춶ꎺ쎿100췲슬늼뗄춶ꎬ쓜쪹124룶욶삧죋뿚쳡룟떽욶삧쿟틔짏ꆣ듋췢ꎬ쎿춶폚쿧듥뗀슷짏1슬늼ꎬ믘듓얩튵짺닺짏뗃떽뎬돶5슬늼뗄믘놨ꎬ뷶듎폚얩튵퇐뺿뫍랢햹뗄믘놨싊ꆣ헾뢮뛔얩튵퇐뺿뫍랢햹퓶볓뗄헾뢮횧돶뛔짺닺퓶뎤뻟폐ퟮ듳뗄펰쿬ꎬ돉놾샻죳싊듯떽13ꎻ뷶듎폚춶폚쿧듥뗀슷닺짺뗄췑욶뷡맻ꆣ뷌폽춶뗄퓶볓뛔쿧듥췑욶뻟폐뗚죽듳뗄킧맻ꎬ훷튪틲캪럇얩샍뚯솦뗄퓶볓틽웰얩듥쫕죫쳡룟ꆣퟮ뫳ꎬ릫릲춶폚맠룈ꎬ뛔폚얩튵짺닺뻟폐뫍뷌폽춶튻퇹뗄펰쿬ꎬ뛔폚복욶킧맻뫜킡ꆣ 22
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 뇭 1993쓪펡뛈얩튵퇐뺿믘놨벰ힴ뿶쮮욽럖컶 틔슬늼뇭쪾뗄 쎿냙췲슬늼횧돶 틲쯘 쎿슬늼횧돶믘놨 복짙뗄욶삧죋뿚 얩튵퇐뺿폫랢햹 맠룈 뗀슷 뷌폽 쓜풴 쮮췁놣돖 붡뾵 랴욶삧볆뮮 살풴ꎺ살ퟔꆢꆢThorat뗄볆쯣ꎬ쏀맺싃폎폫얩튵뺭볃ꎨꎬ,2000ꎩꆰ헾뢮횧돶ꆢ얩튵퓶뎤뫍펡뛈뗄얩듥욶삧ꆱ 쇭튻쿮퇐뺿뇭쏷ꎬ퓚쯹폐춶샠탍훐ꎬ틀뾿폪쮮붽맠뗄뗘쟸퓚얩튵짺닺뫍복쟡욶삧훐뗄뇟볊킧펦ퟮ듳ꎬ맠룈쟸업퓚뗚뛾믲ퟮ뫳ꆣ듋췢ꎬ탭뛠춶폚뗍잱퓚폪쮮쟸뗄쿮쒿닺짺쇋ퟮ룟뗄믘놨ꎬ뛸쟒ꎬ돽뷌폽횮췢뗄쯹폐춶퓚췑욶랽쏦닺짺쇋뿉쾲뗄펰쿬ꆣ헢킩뷡맻잿쇒횸돶ꎬ펦룃룼뛠춶폚듋잰뷏짙맘힢뗄뗘쟸ꆣ 풽쓏릫릲춶뗄킧폃 뛔풽쓏뗄퇐뺿뇭쏷ꎬ헾뢮춶폚뷌폽뛔폚췑욶뗄펰쿬ퟮ듳ꎬ웤듎쫇뗀슷뫍얩튵퇐뺿폫랢햹ꆣ얩튵퇐뺿폫랢햹ꎨ뇭ꎩ뛔얩튵퓶뎤뗄믘놨ퟮ듳ꎬ웤듎쫇릫슷ꆣ뛔맠룈뗄춶퓚췑욶뫍얩튵퓶뎤랽쏦펰쿬ퟮ킡ꆣ춶폚뷌폽뫍릫슷뛔욶삧닺짺뗄뻞듳킧폃뗃ퟔ폚얩쏱릤뻍튵싊뗄쳡룟ꎬ헢튻쿮햼뷌폽뛔욶삧펰쿬뗄89%ꆣ얩튵닺솿뗄퓶뎤뛔얩쏱릤뻍튵싊뗄쳡룟닺짺쇋돖탸뗄펰쿬ꆣ릫슷뛔듋뗄킧폃쫇헻룶릫슷춶킧맻뗄67% 23
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 ꆣ 뇭 풽쓏2000쓪릫릲춶럖컶 쟸폲 맠룈 뗀슷 뷌폽 뛜/뛜 놱늿 룟뗘 뫬뫓죽뷇훞 훐놱늿 훐늿퇘몣 룟뗘 뚫쓏늿 릫뫓죽뷇훞 풽쓏뫏볆 얩튵퇐뺿폫랢햹뫏볆 췑욶죋쫽/냙췲뛜 놱늿 1 룟뗘 뫬뫓죽뷇훞 훐놱늿 훐늿퇘몣 룟뗘 뚫쓏늿 릫뫓죽뷇훞 풽쓏뫏볆 얩튵퇐뺿폫랢햹뫏볆 살풴ꎺ,pham Lan Huong,and Trinh Quang Long ,ꆰ풽쓏헾뢮횧돶뫍췑욶ꆱꎨ2004쓪IFPRIꎬ뮪쪢뛙DCꎩ 첩맺릫릲횧돶뗄킧폃 첩맺낸샽뇭쏷ꎬ헾뢮퓶볓뛔얩튵퇐뺿폫랢햹뗄춶ꎬ뛔폚얩튵짺닺뗄쳡룟킧폃ퟮ듳ꎬ웤듎쫇쯼뛔얩듥뗄췑욶펰쿬ꆣꎨ뇭ꎩ춶폚얩듥뗧솦퓚췑욶랽쏦펰쿬ퟮ듳ꎬ웤듎쫇쳥쿖퓚퓶뎤랽쏦ꆣ헢솽쿮춶풶룟폚웤쯻랽쏦ꆣ릫슷춶뛔폚복욶뗄킧맻캻폚뗚죽ꎬ떫뛔폚얩튵짺닺뗄펰쿬캢늻ퟣ뗀ꆣ얩듥뷌폽뛔췑욶뗄펰쿬업퓚뗚쯄ꎬ떫쫇춨맽뛔쳡룟얩튵짺닺뛔뺭볃펰쿬뫜듳ꆣ맠룈춶뛔폚췑욶뫍얩튵짺닺뗄킧폃ퟮ킡ꆣ뛔춶뗄럖컶뇭쏷ꎬ뛔훐컷늿퓶볓춶ꎬ쳘뇰쫇뗧솦뫍릫슷랽쏦뇈춶폚웤쯻뗘쟸24
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 췑욶뗄킧맻룼뫃ꆣ뺡맜퓚뚫놱늿뗄춶퓶뎤뫃폚웤쯻뗘쟸ꎬ퓚춶폫퓶뎤뫍춶폫췑욶랽쏦쎻폐쏷쿔뗄욽뫢맘쾵ꆣ 뇭 1999쓪첩맺얩듥춶럖컶 춶 뚫놱늿 놱늿 훐늿 쓏늿 첩맺 춶믘놨싊ꎨ/ꎩ 얩튵퇐뺿폫랢햹 맠룈 뗀슷 뷌폽 뗧솦 춨톶 췑욶죋쫽/냙췲 얩튵퇐뺿폫랢햹 맠룈 뗀슷 뷌폽 뗧솦 춨톶 살풴ꎺ,,and ,훐뗈쫕죫맺볒훐릫릲춶뛔쿧듥췑욶뗄훘튪탔ꎺ첩맺낸샽ꆣDSCD뗚7뫅쳖싛룥ꎨ뮪쪢뛙ꎬDCꎺ 2004쓪IFPRIꎩ 놸힢ꎺ횸컞뿉샻폃뗄ꎻ 횸뿉뫶싔뗄춳볆 컚룉듯릫릲춶킧폃 컚룉듯쯹폐뗄춶퓚쳡룟얩튵짺닺뗄춬쪱복짙쇋욶삧ꎨ뇭ꎩꆣ좻뛸뫜늻춬뗄쫇ꎬ짏쫶돉맻뗄좡뗃쪹뗃횧돶퓶볓ꆣ듓맺볒헻쳥살뾴ꎬ헾뢮퓚얩튵랢햹폫퇐뺿랽쏦뗄횧돶퓚쳡룟샍뚯솦짺닺뫍췑욶랽쏦믱뗃쇋ퟮ듳뗄믘놨ꆣ웤듎쫇춶폚횧슷ꆣ뷌폽업퓚뗚죽캻ꎬ킧맻ퟮ킡뗄쫇붡뾵춶ꆣ돽뷌폽횮췢뗄쯹폐춶퓚랢햹뷏뫃뗄컷늿뗘쟸믱뗃쇋ퟮ룟뗄얩튵짺닺믘놨ꎬ떫퓚뚫늿뗘쟸믘놨ퟮ뗍ꆣ훐늿뫍놱늿뛔폚뷌폽뫍릫슷춶뗄믘놨ퟮ뗍ꎬ뚫늿뷶듎폚훐늿ꆣ놱늿쫇컚룉듯ퟮ욶쟮뗄뗘쟸ꎬ67%뗄죋뿚쫴폚욶삧뷗닣ꆣ헢룶뗘쟸뛔췑욶뗄믘놨ퟮ룟ꎨ돽쇋붡뾵ꎩꎬ췑욶뗄킧맻퓚릫릲짨쪩뫍뷌폽25
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 춶짏뇭쿖뗄폈캪쏷쿔ꆣ훐늿뗄췑욶킧맻뛔폚쯹폐뗄춶뚼쫇ퟮ킡뗄ꆣ 뇭 1999쓪컚룉듯릫릲춶럖컶 춶 훐늿 뚫늿 놱늿 컷늿 컚룉듯 돉놾샻죳싊/ꎨ 쿈쇮 /쿈쇮ꎩ 얩튵퇐뺿폫랢햹 뷌폽 횧슷 Murram슷 냘폍쯩쪯슷 붡뾵 췑욶죋쫽/냙췲쿈쇮 얩튵퇐뺿폫랢햹 뷌폽 횧슷 Murram슷 냘폍쯩쪯슷 붡뾵 살풴ꎺDSG뗚4쳖싛룥ꎨ뮪쪢뛙DCꎺ2004쓪IFPRIꎩꎺ릫릲횧돶ꆢ퓶뎤뫍컚룉듯뗄얩듥췑욶ꆣ,,and 낸샽럖컶뗄뷡싛 뛔폚쒳킩잷랢듯뗄맺볒살쮵퓙듎쳡룟릫릲횧돶쫇뫜삧쓑뗄ꎬ쯹틔맺볒뇘탫룼폐킧뗄쪹폃춶ꆣ헢뻍튪쟳쳡룟춶닟싔틔듯떽퓶뎤뫍췑욶뗄쒿뇪ꎬ춬퇹튪쳡룟쳡릩릫릲컯욷뫍럾컱뗄듺샭늿쏅뗄킧싊ꆣ뿉뾿뗄헾뢮룷샠춶뗄뇟볊킧폃쫽뻝뛔폚헾뢮ퟷ돶폐킧뗄춶뻶닟쫇뫜훘튪뗄ꆣ뾼싇떽룷맺볒퓚뺭볃쳥쾵ꆢퟔ좻풴ꆢ짧믡뺭볃쳵볾뫍쏦믽뗄뻞듳닮틬ꎬ헢킩낸샽퇐뺿쳡릩쇋튻킩훘튪뗄뺭퇩ꎺ 쫗쿈춶폚얩튵퇐뺿폫랢햹ꆢ뷌폽뫍얩듥믹뒡짨쪩쫇ퟮ폐틦폚쳡룟얩튵짺닺뫍복짙욶삧뗄죽쿮듫쪩ꆣ듓컚룉듯폐쿞뗄횤뻝뇭쏷ꎬ벴쪹쫇뗍돉놾뗄릫릲짨쪩춶죫ꎬ튲믡퓚랢햹뫍췑욶짏믱뗃ퟮ룟믘놨ꆣ퓚낸샽훐ꎬ쿧듥뗀슷뗄춶ꎬ늻뷶폐틦폚얩듥랢햹뫍췑욶ꎬ춬퇹쪹돇쫐랢햹뫍췑욶듓훐쫜틦ꆣ 26
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 웤듎뛔펡뛈ꆢ첩맺뫍풽쓏뗄퇐뺿뇭쏷ꎬ룼뛠뗄춶폚잷랢듯뗘쟸늻뷶믡믱뗃ퟮ듳뗄췑욶믘놨ꎬ춬퇹뗃떽ퟮ룟뗄뺭볃믘놨ꆣ떫쫇퓚럇훞ꎬ헢훖쟸폲쟷쫆늻뫜웕뇩ꎬ듳뛠쫽뗘쟸죧맻늻뾼싇랢햹뗘캻ꎬ믡믱뗃쿠뛔뷏룟뗄췑욶믘놨ꆣ 퓙헟헾뢮뗄랴욶삧볆뮮뛔폚복욶뗄킧맻뫜킡ꎬ훷튪쫇틲캪컞킧뗄닟싔뫍뷰뗄샄폃탭뛠헾뢮틑뺭틢쪶떽쇋컊쳢뗄퇏훘탔ꎬ헢쫇쳡룟욶삧믹뷰쪹폃닟싔뗄믹뒡ꎬ믲헟춶폚얩듥뷌폽뫍믹뒡짨쪩ꎬ폐샻폚뎤풶랢햹뫍뷢뻶뎤웚욶삧컊쳢ꆣ ퟮ뫳ꎬ헾뢮춶맠룈퓚퓚쳡룟얩튵짺닺뫍복욶랽쏦냧퇝쇋훘튪뷇즫ꎬ떫퓚뷱쳬헢쿮춶퓚탭뛠퇇훞맺볒뛔폚복욶뫍랢햹횻폐뫜킡뗄뇟볊믘놨ꆣ쿠랴ꎬ펦룃춨맽뛔헾뢮뫍릫릲늿쏅뗄룄룯쳡룟뛔릫릲맠룈쾵춳뗄쪹폃킧싊ꆣ 낸샽퇐뺿튲횸쏷ꎺ늻춬뗄랢햹뷗뛎탨튪늻춬뗄폅쿈춶ꎻ틔뗣듸쏦뗄닟싔쫇늻쫊뫏뗄ꆣ퓚뗚튻뷗뛎ꎬ펦춨맽삩듳뺭볃퓶뎤뗄믹뒡듸뚯얩듥뺭볃ꎬ벯훐폚붵뗍욶삧뗄랢햹ꆣ틔뫳뗄뷗뛎ꎬ펦맘힢실뫳뗄뗘쟸ꎬ죧짧쟸욶삧뫍볒춥짺볆쮮욽ꎬ틔붵뗍퓚룄룯훐죔좻늻뛏퓶뎤뗄욶삧뫍쫕죫늻욽뗈ꆣ 듳뛠쫽럇훞죶맾삭맺볒죔좻뒦폚랢햹뗄돵벶뷗뛎ꆣ춶폚뺭볃퓶뎤훷튪캪쇋붵뗍듳맦쒣뗄욶삧ꆣ헢킩맺볒뗄헾뢮뛔폚캴살뗄컈뚨랢햹ꆢ랢햹뗄닟싔ꆢ뻶뚨릫릲춶탨쟳뢺폐훷튪뗄퓰죎ꆣ릫릲짨쪩뫍얩튵뗄춶죫ꎬ쫇릫릲횸돶뗄훷튪맘힢뗣ꆣ뷼쓪살ꎬ튻킩럇훞헾뢮틑뺭뾪쪼쇋헢랽쏦뗄볆뮮ꆣ샽죧낣죻뛭뇈퇇뫍쓡죕샻퇇ퟮ뷼쳡룟쇋퓚얩튵뫍뫍쿧듥뗄릫릲횧돶ꆣ 펡뛈ꆢ풽쓏뫍첩맺뗈맺볒틑뺭췪돉쇋복욶뗄뗚튻뷗뛎ꎬ쿖퓚뾪쪼복짙쟸폲늻욽뗈뫍볒춥욶삧ꆣ쒳킩맺볒뒫춳짏욫뫃룶뇰폫뗘쟸뗄쒿뇪랽램좥복짙퓶뎤뗄늻욽뗈ꎬ떫퓚ퟮ뷼뾪쪼쇋룼뛠뗄볒춥짧쟸쒿뇪볆뮮ꆣ펡뛈헽쿠랴ꎬ붫쳘쫢죋좺ퟷ캪벯훐뗄쒿뇪ꎬ늢퓚ퟮ뷼뾪쪼쇋맍펶볆뮮ꆣ펡뛈뗄뺭퇩뇭쏷ꎬ폫맣랺뗄퓶볓쫕죫뫍삩듳쟸폲믹뒡뗄랽램쿠뇈ꎬ퓋폃뛠훖쒿뇪볆뮮횱뷓헫뛔쳘쫢뗄욶삧죋뿚룼폐훺폚쪵쿖쒿뇪ꆣ 27
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 5 뷡싛폫뛔닟붨틩 뷡싛 룹뻝놾컄샭싛쒣탍뗄췆떼뫍믹폚컒맺릫릲춶ퟮ폅맦쒣뗄쪵횤럖컶ꎬ놾컄뗃돶쇋틔쿂뗄뷡싛ꎺ ꎨ1ꎩ릫릲춶폫뺭볃퓶뎤횮볤듦퓚ퟅ튻훖뎤웚뗄뻹뫢맘쾵ꎬ늢쟒쯻쏇뗄맘쾵훷튪뇭쿖캪릫릲춶뛔맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뗄듙뷸ퟷ폃ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ헾뢮뛔뷌폽ꆢ컄뮯ꆢ튽쇆ꆢ컀짺ꆢ뿆퇐뗈랽쏦뗄횧돶ꎬ퓶볓쇋뺭볃훐뗄죋솦놾듦솿ꎬ춨맽좫튪쯘짺닺싊벰췢늿킧펦뗈쳡룟쇋뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄릱쿗솦ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ헾뢮릫릲춶쯤좻훷튪춶쿲얩튵뗈믹뒡닺튵뫍붻춨퓋쫤ꆢ믺뎡ꆢ룛뿚ꆢ쟅솺ꆢ춨톶ꆢ룸쮮릤돌뗈믹뒡짨쪩ꎬ떫믹뒡짨쪩폫믹뒡닺튵쫇뺭볃쾵춳뗄맘볼ퟩ돉늿럖ꎬ룃쇬폲뗄춶폫놾탎돉퓚뺭볃퓶뎤맽돌훐웰ퟅ뻙ퟣ쟡훘뗄ퟷ폃,늢횱뷓펰쿬ퟅ뺭볃룷쇬폲풴엤훃뗄킧싊쮮욽ꎬ듓뛸훆풼ퟅ뺭볃퓶뎤ꆣ듓쪵볊살뾴컒맺릫릲춶뛔뺭볃뗄퓶뎤폐튻뚨뗄릱쿗ꎬ좻뛸폫맺췢랢듯맺볒뗄릫릲춶쿠뇈ꎬ컒맺릫릲춶뗄ퟜ솿죔좻뷏킡ꎬ뮹캴듯떽컒맺릫릲춶뗄ퟮ폅맦쒣ꎬ헢펰쿬쇋릫릲춶뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄듙뷸ퟷ폃ꎬ쯦ퟅGDP뗄퓶뎤컒쏇탨튪뷸튻늽볓듳릫릲춶뗄맦쒣ꆣ ꎨ3ꎩ쯤좻헾뢮퓚럅뿭쮽죋놾뗄춶쇬폲ꎬ떫퓚맘쾵떽맺볒뺭볃쏼싶뗄웳튵훐헾뢮춶죔좻햼뻝ퟅ훷떼뗘캻ꎬ헢킩웳튵뛔뺭볃퓶뎤폐헢헽틧돶탔ꎬ뾼싇떽틔뫳쮽죋놾뗄돖탸뿬쯙퓶볓ꎬ퓚놣돖릫릲춶쳘뇰쫇맺햮춶뫏샭맦쒣뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ펦룃폅뮯춶뷡릹ꎬ쿠펦뗘퓶볓릫릲뷌폽ꆢ컀짺뫍뿆벼뗈랽쏦뗄춶죫ꎬ쳡룟릫릲춶뗄헻쳥쫕틦싊ꎬ탎돉헾뢮릫릲컯훊놾ꆢ죋솦놾춶폫뺭볃퓶뎤뗄뎤웚뻹뫢믺훆ꆣ 쳡룟컒맺릫릲춶킧싊뗄헾닟붨틩 ꎨ1ꎩ룄짆릫릲춶뗄뷰살풴 떱잰ꎬ컒맺릫릲춶뷰살풴훷튪쫇냼삨맺볒풤쯣쓚뷰ꆢ맺햮쫕죫퓚쓚뗄닆헾늦뿮뫍틸탐죚ꆣ컒맺릫릲춶쿮쒿뗄쳘뗣쫇헾뢮떼쿲탔쏷쿔ꆢ춶맦쒣듳ꎬ쿮28
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 쒿붨짨훜웚뎤ꎬ쿮쒿뷰탨쟳솿풶풶룟폚튻냣쮽죋춶쿮쒿ꎬ춬쪱평폚릫릲닺욷볛룱듦퓚헾뢮볛룱룉풤믺훆ꎬ틲듋쿮쒿쓚늿쫕틦싊퓚뛌웚쓚쿠뛔뷏뗍ꆣ쯤좻퓚릫릲닺욷릩룸믺훆짏뻟폐튻뚨슢뛏탔ꎬ떫릫릲춶쿮쒿뗄헢킩쳘뗣훆풼쇋쏱볤놾뗄뷩죫ꆣ 맺췢뫜뛠맺볒뗄릫릲춶뷰뗄살풴듳늿럖쫇살ퟔ폚쏱볤놾ꎬ뻍뇈죧펢맺살쮵ꎬ펢맺듓20쫀볍90쓪듺뾪쪼ꎬ룄뇤풭살릫릲춶뒫춳뗄헾뢮맜샭쒣쪽ꎬ믽벫맄샸쮽죋놾살닎폫헾뢮뗄믹붨볆뮮ꎬ뷓ퟅ펢맺헾뢮뷸튻늽랢햹쇋헢룶랽낸ꎬ퓊탭쮽죋돐냬룼뛠뗄릫펪럾컱ꎬ떽2006쓪캪횹ꎬ쮽죋놾햼펢맺헾뢮ퟜ춶뗄튻냫틔짏ꆣ 룹뻝잰컄뗄럖컶ꎬ릫릲춶퓚뺭볃퓋탐뗄맽돌훐훷튪랢믓쇋솽룶랽쏦뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ틽떼쮽죋춶ꎻ늹돤쮽죋춶ꆣ헢솽랽쏦뗄ퟷ폃펦룃쿠뮥듙뷸ꎬ뛔폚늻춬뗄뺭볃탎쫆펦떱랢믓늻춬뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ벴릫릲춶뗄랶캧늻탨튪만뚨ꎬ뛸펦룃쯦ퟅ뺭볃짧믡랢햹뗄늻춬뷗뛎뷸탐쿠펦뗄뗷헻ꎬ컒쏇맺볒펦룃뗷헻릫릲춶뗄햽싔ꎺ볓잿뛔믹뒡짨쪩뗄춶솦뛈ꎬ훷튪쫇믹뒡뷌폽ꆢ릫릲컀짺뫍믹뒡탔뾪랢퇐뺿ꎬ틽떼쮽죋놾듓뺭펪탔뗄쿮쒿뷸죫릫틦탔뗄춶쿮쒿ꎬ듓뛸쪹헾뢮춶뗄뷰훷튪펦폃폚쮽죋놾뗄볠맜뫍릫틦쿮쒿뗄캬뮤ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ폅뮯릫릲춶뗄뷡릹 뻍컒맺릫릲춶릹돉뛸퇔ꎬ평폚릫릲믹뒡짨쪩춶뇈샽뎬맽쇋50%ꎬ릫릲춶훐웤쯻뗄릹돉늿럖쫜떽쇋뇈뷏듳뗄펰쿬ꎬ릫릲럾컱랽쏦ꆢ뷌폽뿆퇐랽쏦뫍맺럀랽쏦뗄춶죫뇈훘쏷쿔욫뗍ꎬ내헕맺쓚톧헟쪵횤퇐뺿뗃돶뗄뷡맻ꎬ떱죋뻹GDP듯떽800쏀풪쪱,릫릲뷌폽횧돶햼GDP뗄뇈샽탨튪듯떽%ꎬ뛸룹뻝춳볆탅쾢ꎬ컒맺퓚1980ꎭ2006쓪훐릫릲뷌폽횧돶햼GDP뗄욽뻹뇈훘캪2%ꎬ헢늻뷶폫맺췢랢듯맺볒뗄5%폐뫜듳뗄닮뻠ꎬ뻍솬랢햹훐맺볒펦룃듯떽뗄4%튲폐뫜듳뗄닮뻠ꆣ뛸쟒컒맺폃폚뿆퇐랽쏦뗄횧돶튲풶풶킡폚맺췢랢듯맺볒뗄뇈샽ꎬ뿆퇐뷌폽랽쏦뗄횧돶늻ퟣ떼훂쇋컒맺죋솦놾폫컯훊놾뗄쫕틦싊쮮욽듦퓚뫜듳닮뻠ꆣ 폅뮯헾뢮릫릲춶뗄뷡릹쫗쿈탨튪헾뢮볓듳퓚벼쫵짽벶뫍뿆벼뒴탂뗈쇬폲뗄춶죫ꎬ뛸쟒헾뢮퓚헢랽쏦뗄춶죫펦룃컈뚨퓶뎤ꎬ헢퇹닅쓜듙뷸닺튵짽벶뫍퇐랢돶탂벼쫵ꎬ늢쟒헾뢮뮹탨튪듳솦랢햹탂쓜풴ꆢ뷚쓜뮷놣ꆢ짺컯튽튩뗈탂탋닺튵ꎬ듓뛸듙뷸뺭볃뗄컈뚨퓶뎤ꆣ웤듎헾뢮탨튪뛔뷚쓜복업뫍짺첬뮷뺳붨짨룼볓훘쫓ꎬ쯤좻ퟮ뷼벸29
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 쓪컒맺뛔뷚쓜복업릤ퟷ좡뗃쇋믽벫뗄뷸햹ꎬ떫컊쳢뮹쫇뫜뛠ꎬ탨튪컒쏇듳솦췆뚯쓜풴뷚풼뫍뮷뺳놣뮤ꆣ퓙헟ꎬ훐퇫탨튪룼뷸튻늽뗄퓶볓뛔얩듥뗄춶솦뛈ꎬ탨튪탋붨웰룼뛠뗄뮹붨랿ꎬ살룄짆얩쏱뗄뻓힡뮷뺳ꎬ듙뷸얩쏱쿻럑ꆣ퓚붻춨짨쪩랽쏦ꎬ뇊헟뻵뗃쒿잰컒맺뗄붻춨믹뒡짨쪩폐쇋뫜듳뗄룄짆ꎬ뛸퓚헾뢮뗄릫릲춶떱훐붻춨믹뒡짨쪩뗄뇈샽뷏룟ꎬ뇊헟죏캪뿉틔쫊떱뗄복짙헢랽쏦뗄춶ꆣ ꎨ3ꎩ붡좫헾뢮릫릲춶맜샭믺훆쳥훆 퓚릫릲춶뻶닟돌탲훐ꎬ헾뢮뻟폐뻸뛔틽떼좨솦ꆣ춬쪱퓚헻뫏탅쾢뫍뗷뿘풴랽쏦폅쫆쏷쿔ꎬ헢횱뷓떼훂릫릲춶뗄뻶닟훷튪틀뾿헾뢮횸쇮ꎬ헾뢮맙풱쮼쿫틢쪶뿉쓜믡퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏펰쿬릫릲춶뗄뻶닟뷡맻ꎬ뷼쓪살ꎬ릫릲춶쿮쒿뻶닟쪧컳뗄쿖쿳틽웰맣랺맘힢ꎬ틲듋춶쿮쒿뿉탐탔퇐뺿뫍쿮쒿쳽횤훆뛈돉캪쿮쒿춶뻶닟훐늻뿉믲좱뗄돌탲ꆣ떫헾뢮맜샭돉놾뻞듳ꆢ맜샭닣벶뢴퓓틔벰헾뢮폫쏱훚샻틦쒿뇪쓑틔춳튻뗈컊쳢쪹쿮쒿뿉퇐뫍쳽횤훆뛈쪵볊짏쇷폚탎쪽ꆣ 붨솢헾뢮릫릲춶맜샭믺훆쳥훆쫗쿈탨튪볓잿뛔릫릲춶쿮쒿뗄뿆톧움맀ꎬ퇏룱짳닩쿮쒿뗄뿉탐탔ꎬ뛔폚쿮쒿뗄벼쫵ꆢ쓜킧ꆢ훊솿뗈랽쏦탨튪퇏룱뗄움틩ꆣ웤듎볓잿뛔릫릲춶쿮쒿뗄볠맜솦뛈ꎬ퇏럀ꆰ뚹뢯퓼릤돌ꆱꎬ냑컕뫃쿮쒿뷸뛈폫훊솿뗄맘쾵ꆣ퓙헟ꎬ뛔폚튻킩짧믡펰쿬뇈뷏듳뗄쿮쒿펦룃헷쟳좺훚뗄틢볻ꎬ좷놣ퟶ떽럾컱폚죋쏱ꆣ 30
뮪 훐 뿆 벼 듳 톧 쮶 쪿 톧 캻 싛 컄 훂 킻 놾컄쫇퓚컒뗄떼쪦싞뒫붨뢱뷌쫚뗄쟗쟐맘뮳뫍쾤탄횸떼쿂췪돉뗄ꆣ뛷쪦틔맣늩뗄톧쪶ꎬ뿭삫뗄탘뷳ꎬ뛀떽뗄퇐뺿쫓튰뫍볻뷢ꎬ쟳헦쟳쪵뗄톧럧ꎬ죃컒쳥믡떽쇋ꆰ몣쓉냙뒨ꎬ폐죝쓋듳ꆱ뗄쓚몭ꆣ뛷쪦늻뷶뷶퓚싛컄뗄킴ퟷ랽쏦ꎬ춬쪱뮹퓚쮼쿫ꆢ짺믮짏룸컒틔컞캢늻훁뗄맘뮳ꎬ뛷쪦쫓톧짺죧ퟓ얮ꎬ늻뷶뷌쫚컒쏇톧컊ꎬ룼뷌떼컒쏇죧뫎ퟶ죋ꆣ뛷쪦퇏뷷쟳쪵뗄톧쫵럧랶ꆢ믭듯욽틗뗄죋짺첬뛈캪컒틔뫳죋짺뗀슷횸틽쇋랽쿲ꎬ쪹컒쫜틦훕짭ꆣ 퓚뮪훐뿆벼듳톧릥뛁쮶쪿뗄헢솽쓪뗄쪱볤샯ꎬ컒뗃떽쇋뫜뛠샏쪦뫍춬톧퓚톧쾰짺믮랽쏦뗄뷌믥뫍냯훺ꎬ쫗쿈룐킻퓚튻웰폤뿬뗄뛈맽퇐뺿짺짺믮뗄컷쪮튻짡518쫒룷캻춬쏅ꎬ헽쫇폐쓣쏇뗄횧돖ꎬ컒닅쓜뿋럾튻룶튻룶뗄삧쓑뫍틉믳ꎬ횱훁컒뛈맽헢솽쓪쏀뫃뗄쪱맢ꆣ퓙헟룐킻뺭볃톧풺뗄룷캻샏쪦ꎬ횣뎯퇴샏쪦ꆢ샮컀뇸샏쪦뗈ꎬ뛠킻룷캻샏쪦룸컒퓚퇐뺿짺짺퇄룸컒뗄맘탄뫍냯훺ꆣퟮ뫳컒뮹튪룐킻엠퇸컒뎤듳몬탁죣뿠뗄뢸쒸ꎬ킻킻쓣쏇! 뇰 2010쓪5퓂폚커몺 31
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