늼믹껦꒧ꡍꥷ1
늼믹껦꒧ꡍꥷ1.뉺뷗볒ꚡꅇMiller and Modigliani(1961)ꕼ귓ꥷ믹볒ꚡꅃ2.ꖫ돵맪냈ꅇꅝꖻ꽱ꓱꅂꖫ믹뉢귈ꓱ떥ꅞ궿볆쇙귬ꩫꅃ2
Miller and Modigliani(1961)ꕼ귓ꥷ믹볒ꚡ1.뉢뉻걹뙱뉻ꩫ∞1V(0)=[R(t)−O(t)]∑t(1+k)t=0꣤꒤ꅁV(0)꒽ꕱ뒶덱ꩆ앶꽱ꪺꖫ귈ꅁR(t)결닄t듁ꪺ꒽ꕱ뉻걹ꑊꅁO(t)결닄t듁ꪺ꒽ꕱ뉻걹ꕘꅁk결ꖫ돵맯룓꒽ꕱ늼굮ꡄꪺ돸륓뉶ꅁꝙ뉻뉶ꅆ덺륌룪ꖻ룪늣ꥷ믹뉺뷗(CAPM)ꅁꕩꕈ꛴군kꅃ3
셼꣒•낲덝닄ꑀ꙾꙾ꫬ꒽ꕱ뛒룪10,000롕꒸ꅁꣃ남ꑗ룪뙒뿬꒽ꯇ800롕꒸ꅁꭨV(0)=R(0)-O(0)=10,000-800=9,200.•낲덝닄ꑀ꙾꒽ꕱ뭜뱴꧐ꫡꑆ뉻5,000.럭꙾늣ꭾꗾꕘ냢ꅁ뉢뉻걹ꑊ500.ꭨR(1)-O(1) = 500 -5,000 = -4,500.•닄ꑇ꙾늣ꭾꗾꕘ냢ꅁ뉢뉻걹ꑊ800.ꭨR(2)-O(2) = 800 =
2. 룪뻷라뉻ꩫ*∞E(1)k(t)−k−tV(0)=+I(t)(1+k)∑kkt=1꣤꒤ꅁV(0)꒽ꕱ뒶덱ꩆ앶꽱ꪺꖫ귈ꅁE(1)ꫭꗜ럭듁ꪺ곕빬ꅁI(t)ꫭꗜꙢ닄t듁ꪺ룪썂ꅁk*(t)결ꖻ군땥ꪺ돸륓뉶ꅁk결ꖫ돵ꝑ뉶(룪ꚨꖻ)ꅃ5
•꙰ꩇ꒽ꕱ녱ꚨꗟ뙽ꥬꅁ둎ꕵꚳꑀ떧룪ꅁꑝ꒣ꖴ뫢ꙁ룪ꅁꡃ꙾샲ꝑ걏ꥷꪺꅁꡃ꙾곕빬ꑝ뎣ꗾ뎡ꕈꝑꪺꓨꚡ땯떹ꩆꅁꢺ믲꒽ꕱ늼믹귈둎ꕵꚳ볒ꚡꪺ닄ꑀ뚵ꅁꝙE(1)/kꅃ•ꑝ둎걏뮡ꅁ꒣뽮랥끬ꡄꚨꪺ꒽ꕱꅁꖦꪺ믹귈걏ꥷꪺꅁ때ꩫ뱗귈ꪺꅁ낣ꭄk엜냊ꅃ6
꙰ꩇ꒽ꕱꡃ꙾ꕈ곕빬ꪺꑀ뎡ꗷ(I(t))ꙁ쑾쓲룪ꅁꛓꕂ곕빬신룪ꪺ샲ꝑ뉶(k*)낪꧳룪ꚨꖻ(k)ꅁꢺ믲꒽ꕱꪺ믹귈둎라뱗ꕛ볒ꚡꪺ닄ꑇ뚵ꅁꝙ: *∞k(t)−k−tI(t)(1+k)∑kt=17
•꧒ꕈꖻ볒ꚡꪺꕄ굮띎롱걏뮡ꅁ꙰ꩇ룪ꑈ굮룪늼ꅁ둎굮1. 걄뿯ꡃ꙾꒣쉟룪ꪺ꒽ꕱꅁꛓꕂ2. ꒽ꕱꪺ룪꒣걏꽂생ꪺꅁꖲ믝걏샲ꝑ뉶(k*)낪꧳룪ꚨꖻ(k)ꪺꅃ8
3.ꝑ뉻ꩫDDD12TV(0)=++...+2T(1+k)(1+k)(1+k)•꣤꒤ꅁV(0)꒽ꕱ뒶덱ꩆ앶꽱ꪺꖫ귈ꅁDt결Ꙣ닄t듁ꪺ뉻ꝑꅁk결ꖫ돵ꝑ뉶ꅃ9
(ꑀ)ꝑꥷꚨ볒ꚡ낲덝(1)꒽ꕱ뉻ꝑꡃ꙾뎣걏ꕈꥷꪺꚨt−1t뉶gꚨꅁꝙD=D(1+g)=D(1+g)=D(1+g)tt−110ꅁꛓꕂ(2)kꑪ꧳gꅁ•ꭨꖻꝑ뉻볒ꚡꕩꕈ슲꓆결ꅇDD(1+g)10V(0)==k−gk−g10
(ꑇ)ꥷꝑ볒ꚡ•꙰ꩇ뉻ꝑꡃ꙾뎣걏ꥷꅁꝙ쇶땍t−1tD=D(1+g)=D(1+g)=D(1+g)tt−110걏ꚨ뉶g=0ꅁD=D=...=D=Dtt−110꧒ꕈꢺ믲ꝑꚨ볒ꚡ둎ꕩꕈ슲꓆결DV(0)=k11
(ꑔ)ꝑ뙗꿅ꚨ볒ꚡ•걙띳뾳늣띾ꅁ믢뻉뱴냓ꕩ꿠Ꙣꚨꗟ돌ꫬ둘꙾Ꙣ덎곰꽽ꪺ걙꙾ꯗꅁ곕빬라ꚳ뙗녠ꪺꫭ뉻ꅁ덯둘꙾ꪺꝑ꒣걏ꕈꥷꖿ녠ꪺ덴뉶ꚨꅁꛓ걏ꕈꪺ낪꧳ꖿ녠ꚨ뉶ꪺ덴ꯗꚨꅁ걏ꅁ륌ꑆ덯둘꙾ꅁ쑶ꪧꑪ뙱뱗ꕛꯡꅁ샲ꝑꭋ꒣ꙁ낪ꚨꅁꛓ꯬둟ꖿ녠ꅁꢺ믲덯볋ꪺ꒽ꕱ늼뗻믹볒ꚡꕩꕈꑕꚡꫭ륆TD(1+g)(1+g)............(1+g)D(1+g)1012tTV(0)=+×∑tT(1+k)k−g(1+k)t=112
4.곕빬뉻ꩫ∞1V(0)=[E(t)−I(t)]∑t(1+k)t=1•꣤꒤ꅁE(t)ꫭꗜ닄t듁ꪺ곕빬ꅁI(t)ꫭꗜꙢ닄t듁ꪺ룪썂ꅁk결ꖫ돵ꝑ뉶ꅃ•덯귓볒ꚡꪺ띎ꯤ걏뮡ꅁ녎꒽ꕱꖼ꣓ꡃꑀ꙾꧒쇈ꪺ곕빬듮ꕨ럭꙾ꪺ룪ꯡꪺ뉢썂쇙귬결뉻귈ꅁꙁꕛ셠끟꣓ꅁ둎ꕩꕈ녯꣬꒽ꕱ늼ꪺ믹귈ꅃ13
ꖫ돵궿볆쇙귬ꩫ1. ꖻ꽱ꓱ궿볆쇙귬ꩫꖻꓨꩫ걏덺륌맪냈곉녠ꗎꪺꖻ꽱ꓱ궿볆(P/E)냑ꛒꡃ곕빬(EPS)ꪺ룪끔녎믹쇙귬꛴군ꕘ꣓ꅃP= EPS * P/E꣤꒤ꅁP결ꡃ믹ꅃ•꧒뿗ꖻ꽱ꓱ궿볆둎걏뉻ꛦ믹껦낣ꕈꡃ곕빬ꪺ궿볆ꅁꑀ꿫걏ꗎPEP/Eꫭ륆ꅃ룪ꑈ녎꛴군ꪺꡃ곕빬궼ꑗ늼Ꙙ뉺ꪺꖻ꽱ꓱ궿볆둎ꕩꕈ녯꣬꛴군ꪺꙘ뉺믹껦ꅃ14
•ꝑꗎꖻ꽱ꓱ궿볆쇙귬ꩫ꛴군늼Ꙙ뉺믹껦ꅁꖲ믝ꩠ띎ꑕꙃꙝ꿀ꅇ(1) ꡃ곕빬걏ꡃ땼ꯡ곕빬ꅃ(2) 삳룓ꗎ꒰믲듁뚡꛴군ꪺꡃ땼ꯡ곕빬(EPS)ꑾꚳ띎롱ꅈ15
ꗎ꒰믲듁뚡꛴군ꪺꡃ땼ꯡ곕빬(EPS)?•뙒늼걏굮뙒룓늼ꅵꖼ꣓ꪺ끴꺧ꅶꅁ꧒ꕈ삳룓삳ꗎꖼ꣓ꪺEPSꪺ룪끔꣓꛴군믹ꅁꛓ꒣걏ꑷ땯ꗍꪺ뻺ꕶ룪끔ꅃ귌ꕩꕈ땯뉻ꚳꕈꑕ꒣Ꙑ듁뚡ꪺEPSꪺꥷ롱ꅇa.돌꫱ꑀ꙾꙾돸ꪺEPSꅁb.돌꫱ꕼꥵꥵ돸닖뽮ꪺEPSꅁc.륷꛴꒵꙾ꗾ꙾ꪺEPSꅁd.륷꛴t꙾ꯡꪺEPSꅃ16
ꢺꑀꓤ늼귈녯듁룪?늼ꖫ믹琽?琽?琽?琽?⡮潷?䕐?倯?䕐?倯?䕐?倯?䕐?倯??㐰??㐰〮?㠰?㐰?㌶?㌶?????㜮??㠰?ㄳ⸳?㈰?㐰?㐰?ㄲ??㘰?㌰?ㄵㄲ???㔰17
Ꙙ뉺ꖻ꽱ꓱ궿볆꙰꛳ꡍꥷ?DE×(1−B)11P==0k−gk−g(1−B)P/E=01k−g•ꡃꓤ늼ꪺgꡍꥷ꣤ꙕꛛꪺꙘ뉺ꖻ꽱ꓱ궿볆ꅃ•g=BXROE•ROE뭐ꓲꝑꚳ쏶ꅃ18
*ꖿ녠ꛓꢥꅁ낪ꖻ꽱ꓱ궿볆ꕎꫭꖫ돵맯룓늼꒽ꕱꖼ꣓샧륂ꪺꥷꅁꝙ륷듁꒽ꕱꖼ꣓곕빬낪ꚨꅃ* 걏ꚳ껉귔걏ꙝ결ꑈ결ꪣꝀ믹ꅁ룪ꑈ뚷ꑰꓟ꓀꩒!19
2. ꖫ믹뉢귈ꓱꖫ믹뉢귈ꓱ= 믹/뉢귈ꑀ꿫ꛓꢥꅁꖫꙨ쁙껉궫뛕ꅁ룻궫뗸ꖻ꽱ꓱꅆ걏쁙껉룻궫뷨ꅁ꧒ꕈ궫뗸ꖫ믹뉢귈ꓱꅃꖿ녠ꛓꢥꅁ뭐ꖻ꽱ꓱ궿볆ꑀ볋ꅁ낪궿볆ꕎꫭꖫ돵맯꒽ꕱꖼ꣓샧륂ꪺꥷꅃ20
ꖫ믹뉢귈ꓱꝃꚳꕩ꿠걏:(1)ꑪ뵌(뻣엩ꖫ)꒣꣎ꅁꑪꙨ볆늼믹껦볉뙞ꅁꙝꚹꖫ믹뉢귈ꓱꝃꅁꚹ껉셚쁵늼뙖ꚳ듁룪믹귈ꅃ(2)룓색늼곛맯꧳꣤ꖦꙐ띾샧륂셚껄깴ꅁ굴뛅ꓱ뉶낪ꅁꙝꚹ믹ꑝꝃꅁ덹ꚨꖫ믹뉢귈ꓱꝃꅃꚹ뫘늼때듁룪믹귈ꅁ삳덴ꕘ냢ꅃ21
3. ꖫ믹샧ꚬꓱꖫ믹샧ꚬꓱ=믹/ꡃ샧ꚬꚳ띳뾳늣띾(꙰2000꙾ꭥꪺ뫴덱)ꙝ늣띾ꫬ뷏ꗍꅁ꒽ꕱ돐ꗟ뙽ꥬꪺꭥ둘꙾ꥼ때곕빬ꅁꙝꚹ때ꩫꗎꖻ꽱ꓱꩫ뗻믹ꅁ꧒ꕈꑀ꿫ꕈ샧ꚬ꣤ꖦꙝ꿀(꙰뫴룴ꪺꡃ꙾맪믚덹던뫴꾸ꚸ볆)꣓Ꝁ결뗻믹뻚ꅃ22
4. ꖫ믹뉻걹뙱ꓱꖫ믹뉻걹뙱ꓱ=믹/ꡃ뉻걹뙱*ꚳ룪ꖻ녋뚰ꮬꗸ띾ꅁꙝ결룪궫ꑪꅁꭥ둘꙾싂썂ꑪꅁ때ꩫ늣ꗍ녢ꑗꝑ볭ꅁ꒴ꚳ뉻걹ꑊꅁ걇꒣빁Ꙙꗎꖻ꽱ꓱꩫ뗻믹ꅁꗎꖫ믹뉻걹뙱ꩫꅃ23
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