2007쓪뗚12웚췢짌횱뷓춶:뒹횱탍뮹쫇쮮욽탍3?톦싾쳬ꆡ헔쫯뚫ꆡꆡ쓚죝쳡튪:퓚샭싛럖컶뗄믹뒡짏,놾컄틀뻝1992ꆪ2004쓪볤컒맺쪵볊샻폃쫀뷧룷맺(뗘쟸)FDI뷰뛮뗄쫽뻝,쪹폃뚯첬쏦냥쫽뻝쒣탍,럖ퟩ에뇰쇋쇷죫컒맺FDI뗄탔훊ꆣ뺭럖컶랢쿖,퓚퇹놾웚볤,살ퟔ맺볊뇜쮰뗘뗄FDI뻟폐쿔훸뗄쮮욽탍쳘헷,살ퟔ럇뇜쮰뗘뗄FDI퓲뻟폐쿔훸뗄뒹횱탍쳘헷,ퟜ쳥뛸퇔뒹횱탍춶퓚훆퓬튵컼쫕뗄FDI훐햼뻝훷튪뗘캻ꆣ2004쓪틔살,뛔뮪FDI뗄뷡릹랢짺쇋쏷쿔뇤ꆣ놾컄뻝듋쳡돶쇋헾닟붨틩ꆣ맘볼듊:뇜쮰뗘ꆡ쮮욽탍FDIꆡ뒹횱탍FDIꆡ쏦냥쫽뻝ꆡꆡ룄룯뾪럅틔살,듳솿췢짌횱뷓춶(FDI)뷸죫컒맺ꆣ쒿잰훐맺틑쫇쫀뷧짏컼쫕췢ퟮ뛠뗄맺볒횮튻,헢킩췢뛔폚맺쓚뗄놾탎돉ꆢ릤튵닺돶퓶뎤ꆢ돶뿚뛮짏짽ꆢ벼쫵뷸늽뚼웰떽쇋훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ맘폚췢뷸죫훐맺뗄뚯틲뫍뻶뚨틲쯘,틑뺭폐뷏뛠뗄퇐뺿컄쿗,늻맽뻸듳뛠쫽뚼붫FDIퟷ캪튻룶헻쳥뾴듽,퇐뺿훐맺맺쓚쫐뎡맦쒣벰퓶뎤쯙뛈ꆢ샍뚯솦돉놾ꆢ믹뒡짨쪩ꆢ훆뛈틲쯘ꆢ뷰죚틲쯘뛔헻쳥FDI쇷솿뗄펰쿬ꆣ떫쫇,FDI쯤좻뚼쫇훰샻뛸살,웤뻟쳥뗄쟽뚯쒣쪽죔쫇폐쟸뇰뗄,펦럖샠럖컶ꆣ쓇쎴,쇷죫훐맺뗄FDIꆢ쳘뇰쫇살ퟔ맺볊뇜쮰뗘ꋙ뗄뻞뛮FDI훷튪쫜쓄훖틲쯘뗄쟽뚯?쫇뒹횱탍춶뮹쫇쮮욽탍춶?놾컄틀뻝1992ꆪ2004쓪볤컒맺쪵볊샻폃쫀뷧룷맺(뗘쟸)FDI뷰뛮뗄쏦냥쫽뻝(paneldata),쪹폃뚯첬쏦냥쫽뻝쒣탍,내맺뇰럖ퟩ듓춶뚯믺뷇뛈돶랢에뇰쇋쇷죫컒맺FDI뗄탔훊,늢뻝듋뷸탐쇋헾닟럖컶ꆣ튻ꆢ컄쿗믘맋(튻)FDI뷸죫훐맺뗄펰쿬틲쯘틔뿧맺릫쮾캪훷쳥뗄맺볊횱뷓춶듓짏쫀볍60쓪듺뾪쪼엮늪랢햹,퇐뺿FDI뚯틲뗄뷏캪좫쏦뗄샭싛뿲볜ꆪꆪꆪ맺볊짺닺헛훔샭싛ꆪꆪꆪ평Dunning퓚짏쫀볍70쓪듺쳡돶,벴뿧맺릫쮾틀뻝쯹폐좨폅쫆ꆢ쓚늿뮯폅쫆뫍쟸캻폅쫆뻶뚨뛔췢횱뷓춶랽쪽뫍쟸캻;Vernon쳡돶뗄닺욷짺쏼훜웚샭싛ꆢ킡떺쟥쳡돶뗄뇟볊닺욷삩헅샭싛뗈튲폐튻뚨펰쿬,떫웤좫쏦탔뫍쫊폃랶캧늻벰잰헟ꆣ헻쳥뛸퇔,쿖폐뗄FDI샭싛뗄훘탄죔쫇럖컶뿧맺릫쮾뗄탐캪ꆣ헽죧헅붨뫬(2004)쯹횸돶뗄,뿧맺릫쮾뗄쳘헷퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏좡뻶폚웤쒸맺뗄룷랽쏦쳘헷틔벰뚫뗀맺폫쒸맺횮볤뗄룷훖솪쾵,틲듋뚫뗀맺폫쒸맺뗄맺볒쳘헷벰웤맘쾵쓜릻폐솦뗘뷢쫍솽맺볤뗄맺볊횱뷓춶뗄뚯틲뫍샠탍ꆣDunning퓚짏쫀볍80쓪듺튲붫웤맺볊짺닺헛훔샭싛듓맺볒쳘헷뷇뛈뷸탐쇋뚯첬뮯랢햹,탎돉랢햹뷗뛎싛ꆣ폐튻킩컄쿗듓맺볒쳘헷뷇뛈쪵횤퇐뺿쇋룷맺(뗘쟸)쇷죫훐맺FDI뷰뛮뗄뻶뚨틲쯘,퓚뇭1훐3ꆡ톦싾쳬ꆢ헔쫯뚫,쓏뺩듳톧뺭볃톧풺맺볊뺭볃쎳틗쾵ꆢ맺볊뺭볃퇐뺿쯹,폊헾뇠싫:210093,뗧ퟓ탅쿤:xmtsz@,zhaosd008@ꆣ놾컄쫜떽뷌폽늿헜톧짧믡뿆톧뒴탂믹뗘ꆰ쓏뺩듳톧뺭볃탍뫍랢햹퇐뺿훐탄ꆱퟓ뿎쳢ꆰ뛔췢뾪럅폫훐맺뺭볃탍벰랢햹ꆱ쿮쒿훺ꆣퟷ헟럇뎣룐킻쓤쏻짳룥죋뗄놦맳틢볻,떱좻,컄퓰ퟔ뢺ꆣꋙꆡ맺볊뇜쮰뗘듳훂냼삨죽샠:늻헷쫕죎뫎쯹뗃쮰;쯹뗃쮰싊뷏뗍;뛔쒳킩샠뇰릫쮾쪵탐쳘쫢뗄폅믝쮰싊ꆣ놾컄붫죽헟뫏늢뾼싇ꆣ퓚좷뚨뇜쮰뗘쪱훷튪틀뻝OECD폚2000쓪릫늼뗄놨룦ꆶ죏뚨뫍쿻돽폐몦쮰쫕탐캪뗄뷸돌ꆷ훐쇐뻙뗄뇜쮰뗘(틽ퟔ퇮뇳,2003)뫍췸햾쇐뻙뗄뇜쮰뗘,틀뻝훐맺쪵볊쟩뿶뫍웤쯼쇏퓶볓쇋훐맺냄쏅ꆢ럆싉뇶ꆢ컄삳ꆢ쯷십샯ꆢ쯹싞쏅좺떺ꆢ믹샯냍쮹ꆢ놴샍뫍웤쯼첫욽퇳떺포,탂볓웂폫컒맺잩폐쿠맘쮰쫕킭틩,쯹틔쎻폐쇐죫ꆣ93
톦싾쳬ꆢ헔쫯뚫:췢짌횱뷓춶:뒹횱탍뮹쫇쮮욽탍?쇐돶쇋늿럖맺쓚췢컄쿗쯹닉폃뗄뷢쫍뇤솿벰웤볬퇩뷡맻ꆣ뇭1폐맘컄쿗닉폃뇤솿벰뷡맻뷢쫍뇤솿컄쿗벰볬퇩뷡맻헽뢺훐맺GDPDees(1998)ꆢ뚡믔쿀뗈(2005)ꆢ엋헲(2006)쒸맺GDP뚡믔쿀뗈(2005)Pan(2003)쿠뛔쫐뎡맦쒣:쒸맺GDP-Πꇂ훐맺GDPGao(2003)ꆢWei(2004)붻뮥쫐뎡맦쒣:쒸맺GDP+Π3훐맺GDPHsiao(2004)ꆢGao(2003)죋뻹GDP횮닮(쒸맺-훐맺)Zhao(2003)ꆢGao(2003)GDP퓶뎤싊횮닮(훐맺-쒸맺)Zhao(2003)훐맺쎳틗뛮ꇂGDP뚡믔쿀뗈(2005)뛔쒸맺쎳틗뛮ꇂ훐맺GDPΠퟜ쎳틗뛮Hsiao(2004)ꆢPan(2003)ꆢWei(2004)ꆢZhao(2003)쿠뛔쪵볊릤(쒸맺ꇂ훐맺)Dees(1998)ꆢHsiao(2004)ꆢWei(2004)쿠뛔쪵볊죚돉놾(쒸맺ꇂ훐맺)Wei(2004)Pan(2003)ꆢZhao(2003)훐맺맺볒럧쿕Pan(2003)쿠뛔헾훎럧쿕횸쫽(쒸맺-훐맺)Zhao(2003)쿠뛔닺좨폫뫬샻럧쿕횸쫽(쒸맺-훐맺)Zhao(2003)쮫훘헷쮰킭뚨쫽솿Wei(2004)쮫뇟춶킭뚨쫽솿Wei(2004)쪵볊믣싊(볤뷓뇪볛)Hsiao(2004)ꆢDees(1998)ꆢPan(2003)쏻틥믣싊(볤뷓뇪볛)뚡믔쿀뗈(2005)쏻틥폐킧믣싊(볤뷓뇪볛)Zhao(2003)쫬솷샍뚯솦쿠뛔?뢳횮닮(쒸맺-훐맺)Gao(2003)놾럡풣뛈횮닮(쒸맺-훐맺)Gao(2003)솽맺뗘샭뻠샫Gao(2003)ꆢ뚡믔쿀뗈(2005)ꆢ엋헲(2006)쏻틥맘쮰싊뚡믔쿀뗈(2005)뮪죋퓚쒸맺죋뿚훐뇈샽Gao(2003)훐맺힢닡샻쫽뚡믔쿀뗈(2005)쒸맺퓚쏀맺힢닡샻쫽Dees(1998)컄뮯훆뛈뻠샫엋헲(2006)램싉훆뛈뻠샫엋헲(2006)ꆡꆡ힢:(1)횻쇐돶쇋춨맽쿔훸탔볬퇩뗄뇤솿벰뷡맻;(2)캪뇣폚맩쓉,뛔늿럖풭뇤솿뿚뺶뷸탐쇋뗷헻;(3)룷컄쿗쯹닉폃뗄뛔뮪뷸탐FDI맺볒뗄랶캧늻췪좫쿠춬,늻맽뚼냼삨쇋뷰뛮뷏듳뗄맺볒뫍뗘쟸;(4)뇭훐ꆰ3ꆱ뇭쪾ꆰ돋틔ꆱꆰ,Πꆱ뇭쪾ꆰ믲헟ꆱꆣ뇭훐쳡벰뗄룷캻톧헟듓훮뛠뷇뛈볬퇩쇋펰쿬FDI뷸죫훐맺뗄틲쯘,뷒쪾쇋뛔뮪횱뷓춶뗄죴룉믹놾쳘헷ꆣ늻맽놾컄튲힢틢떽,퓚맀볆랽램짏,퓚뇭1쯹쇐퇐뺿훐돽Hsiao(2004)췢뚼캴뷸탐떥94
2007쓪뗚12웚캻룹볬퇩,틲듋폐뗄볬퇩뿉쓜듦퓚캱믘맩컊쳢,Hsiao(2004)쯤좻뷸탐쇋떥캻룹뫍킭헻볬퇩,떫뛔폚냼몬훍뫳틲뇤솿뗄뚯첬쒣탍닉폃쇋ퟮ킡뛾돋램(LS)뷸탐맀볆,쯹맀볆뗄쾵쫽뿉쓜늻뻟폐튻훂탔;웤듎,짏쫶컄쿗캴좫쏦쟸럖살ퟔ룷샠뇜쮰맺볒(뗘쟸)뗄FDI,뛸퓚훐맺뗄FDI훐,폐쿠떱늿럖살ퟔ폚헢킩맺볒뫍뗘쟸ꆣ평폚컞램좷뚨헢늿럖FDI뗄헦쪵살풴뗘,웤쒸맺쳘헷뿉쓜늻뇣폃ퟷ뷢쫍뇤솿ꆣ뇭1훐컄쿗뛔쿠춬뇤솿쾵쫽뗄맀볆횵뗄럻뫅믹놾튻훂,떫듳뛠쫽뇤솿쓑틔폃살좷죏FDI뗄뻟쳥쳘헷;뛔폚폐훺폚랴펳FDI쳘헷뗄뇤솿(죧쒸맺GDPꆢ쏻틥맘쮰싊ꆢ쫬솷샍뚯솦쿠뛔?뢳),퓲듓웤뷡맻뿉틔떼쿲늻춬뗄맛뗣ꆣ떱좻,헢쫇틲캪쇷죫훐맺뗄FDI냼몬쇋늻춬뗄샠탍,쪹폐맘뇤솿랴펳돶쇋늻춬뗄쳘헷ꆣ(뛾)FDI뗄샠탍벰웤에뇰듓춶헟뚯믺돶랢,솪뫏맺쎳랢믡틩(UNCTAD)퓚1998쓪ꆶ쫀뷧춶놨룦ꆷ훐붫FDI럖캪쫐뎡톰쟳탍ꆢ풴믲닺톰쟳탍뫍킧싊톰쟳탍ꆣ믲헟뿉틔룼볲뷠뗘붫FDI쟸럖캪뒹횱탍(돶뿚떼쿲탍)FDI뫍쮮욽탍(쫐뎡떼쿲탍)FDI(Markusen,1995)ꆣ잰헟횸틀뻝룷뗘짺닺튪쯘볛룱붫짺닺뮷뷚럖늼폚늻춬맺볒,뛔쳘뚨뚫뗀맺살쮵닺욷폃폚돶뿚;뫳헟횸캪뷓뷼떱뗘쫐뎡뛸붫ퟮ훕닺욷짺닺쿟퓚뚫뗀맺뢴훆,닺욷퓚뚫뗀맺쿺쫛;듓쫂헢킩FDI뗄뿧맺릫쮾쿠펦뚨틥캪뒹횱탍뫍쮮욽탍뿧맺릫쮾ꆣ짏쫶럖샠쿔좻훷튪뾼싇뗄쫇훆퓬튵FDI훐뗄ꆰ싌뗘춶ꆱ,평폚퓚퇹놾웚볤뷸죫훐맺뗄FDI훐뻸듳늿럖캪룃훖FDI,틲듋놾컄죏캪뿉틔틀뻝헢훖럖샠뷸탐에뇰뫍럖컶ꆣMarkusen뗈(1996)ퟮ쿈붫쮮욽탍뫍뒹횱탍뿧맺릫쮾춬쪱쓉죫튻룶튻냣뻹뫢쒣탍,횸돶떱솽맺듳킡뫍풴?뢳쿠쯆ꆢ퓋쫤돉놾캪훐뗈떽뷏듳쪱,쮮욽탍뿧맺릫쮾붫퓚룷훖릫쮾탎쪽훐햼훷튪뗘캻ꆣCarr뗈(2001)횸돶,듓쒸맺돶뿚떽뚫뗀맺뗄쎳틗돉놾믡듙뷸쮮욽탍뛸럇뒹횱탍FDI,튻쾵쇐뗄쪵횤퇐뺿뇭쏷퓚쫀뷧랶캧쓚쮮욽뚯틲닅쫇FDI뗄훷떼뚯믺,떫헢늢늻업돢뒹횱뚯믺뛔룶뇰뚫뗀맺쫇훘튪뗄ꆣYeaple(2003)춨맽튻룶뺲첬튻냣뻹뫢쒣탍뗄럖컶횸돶,뗍뗄퓋쫤돉놾뫍뚫뗀맺쿠뛔릤듙쪹뒹횱탍뿧맺릫쮾닺짺,룟뗄퓋쫤돉놾폫뚫뗀맺쿠뛔릤듙쪹쮮욽탍뿧맺릫쮾닺짺,훐뗈떽뷏룟뗄퓋쫤돉놾뫍룟뗄뚫뗀맺쿠뛔릤듙뷸뿧맺릫쮾뗄뢴퓓튻쳥뮯춶ꆣꋙGrossman뗈(2006)뛔Yeaple(2003)뗄럖컶뷸탐쇋폐쿞뗄삩햹,뾼싇쇋뷏뛠뗄뢴퓓튻쳥뮯춶쒣쪽벰웤펰쿬틲쯘,ퟅ훘럖컶쇋퓋쫤돉놾뛔뿧맺릫쮾튻쳥뮯햽싔뻶닟뗄펰쿬,뷡싛뷏캪뢴퓓,뻟쳥닎볻풭컄ꆣ(죽)뛔뷸죫훐맺FDI탔훊뗄에뇰뛔뷸죫훐맺FDI탔훊뗄뚨솿퇐뺿늢늻뛠ꆣ췵퓀욽(1999)럖컶쇋훐맺1995쓪뗚죽듎릤튵웕닩뗄뷘쏦쫽뻝,죏캪틔룛냄첨놾캪훷뗄죽웳튵뻟폐쏷쿔뗄돶뿚떼쿲쳘헷,뛸틔췢맺놾캪훷뗄죽웳튵뻟폐쏷쿔뗄맺쓚쫐뎡뚨쿲쳘헷ꆣ캺뫳뾭뗈(2001)샻폃뛔쟘믊떺쫐췢웳튵뗄컊뻭뗷닩뷸탐쇋퇐뺿,횸돶살ퟔ놱쏀훞뫍얷훞뗄췢짌춨뎣쫇헫뛔훐맺쫐뎡뛸살,뛸퇇훞맺볒뫍뗘쟸튻냣냑훐맺듳슽ퟷ캪짺닺믹뗘뫍돶뿚욽첨ꆣ뫘닓량뗈(2004)춬퇹퓋폃뗚죽듎릤튵웕닩뗄쇏뷸탐춳볆,횸돶살ퟔ퇇훞뗄췢훆퓬웳튵뫍닉폃샍뚯쏜벯탍짺닺릤탲뗄췢훆퓬웳튵룼쟣쿲폚돶뿚ꆣ좻뛸,욽탂쟇뗈(2007)퓋폃2005쓪좫맺뗚튻듎뺭볃웕닩뗄뷘쏦쫽뻝뷸탐춳볆뫳랢쿖,룛냄첨웳튵쿺쫛뛮뗄돶뿚뇈싊(3611%)뗍폚(웤쯼)췢웳튵뗄돶뿚뇈싊(4217%)ꆣ평폚캢맛쇏뷏쓑좡뗃,튲폐죴룉컄쿗틀뻝뫪맛쫽뻝믲룷맺뛔뮪FDI뷰뛮쫽뻝뷸탐쇋에뇰럖컶ꆣ쯎뗈(2002)룹뻝볓릤쎳틗퓚췢짌춶웳튵ퟜ쎳틗훐뗄뇈훘뷸탐듳훂뗄맀볆,죏캪떽2001쓪뗗,퓚컒맺쪵볊샻폃뗄FDI훐,폐7013%쫴폚샍뚯솦톰헒탍,26139%쫴폚쫐뎡ꆢퟔ좻풴톰헒탍,3129%쫴폚릺늢탍ꆣZhang(2005)훷튪틀뻝훐맺듳슽뛔룛첨뗄쿠뛔릤ꆢ훐맺쿠뛔뚫쓏퇇맺볒뗄맘쮰싊솽룶뷢쫍뇤ꋙ룃컄훐뢴퓓튻쳥뮯뚨틥캪춬쪱춶폚랢듯뫍랢햹훐맺볒ꆣ95
톦싾쳬ꆢ헔쫯뚫:췢짌횱뷓춶:뒹횱탍뮹쫇쮮욽탍?솿뗄쾵쫽맀볆횵뛔살ퟔ룛첨ꆢ얷쏀죕ꆰ(듳죽뷇ꆱ)뗄FDI탔훊뷸탐쇋에뇰,죏캪잰헟훷튪쫇돶뿚떼쿲탍,뫳헟훷튪쫇쫐뎡떼쿲탍ꆣ맘쮰싊뛔솽훖FDI쇷솿뗄펰쿬펦쫇쿠랴뗄,늻맽퓚퓋폃룛첨쫽뻝뷸탐믘맩쪱웤맀볆쾵쫽캴쓜춨맽쿔훸탔볬퇩;붫릤ퟷ캪에뇰뇤솿퓲뿉쓜횵뗃짌좶,틲캪뛔폚뒹횱탍FDI쇷솿,뚫뗀맺릤짏짽뗄펰쿬펦쫇뢺뗄,뛸뛔쮮욽탍FDI퓲늻좷뚨(듓짺닺뷇뛈뾼싇펰쿬캪뢺,듓닺욷퓚뚫뗀맺쫐뎡쿺쫛뷇뛈뾼싇퓲펰쿬뿉쓜캪헽),뛔룃뇤솿뗄볬퇩뷡맻뻟폐폐쿞뗄쮵럾솦,뿉쓜쓑틔횱뷓폃살에뇰FDI탔훊ꆣ쯯쿶ꆡ뗈(2006)죏캪죋쏱뇒짽횵붫듙뷸쫐뎡떼쿲탍FDIꆢ틖훆돉놾떼쿲탍(샠쯆폚뒹횱탍)FDI,늢퓋폃죕ꆢ쏀솽맺뛔훐맺FDI쫽뻝뷸탐쇋볬퇩,죏캪솽헟럖뇰쫴폚쫐뎡ꆢ돉놾떼쿲탍ꆣ쯯컄뗄퇐뺿랽램뫜폐웴랢틢틥,늻맽웤쒣탍퇐뺿뗄쫇룷틲쯘뛔뿧맺릫쮾ퟮ폅FDI뷰뛮뗄펰쿬,평듋뗃돶믣싊캪훷튪에뇰뇤솿뗄뷡싛ꆣ뇊헟죏캪,뿧맺릫쮾퓚뻶닟쪱뿉쓜쫗쿈뾼싇쫇럱뷸탐춶ꆣ뾼싇떽컒맺쪵볊샻폃FDIퟜ뛮훐살ퟔ뇜쮰뗘뗄FDI틑햼60%틔짏쟒뇈샽퓚뷸튻늽쳡룟,놾컄뗄쒿뗄쫇톰헒뫏쫊뗄에뇰뇤솿좥에뛏살ퟔ럇뇜쮰뗘ꆢ뇜쮰뗘틔벰ퟜ쳥FDI뗄탔훊,늢럖컶뷼쓪살뗄뇤뚯쟷쫆뫍풭틲ꆣ헢훖에뇰뇤솿펦싺ퟣ틔쿂쳵볾:뛔솽샠FDI뗄펰쿬쏷좷쿠랴;캪뇣폚에뇰살ퟔ뇜쮰뗘뗄FDI뗄탔훊,늻펦짦벰쒸맺뗄뺭볃뇤솿;듋췢,평폚룄룯뾪럅틔살훐맺뗄룷훖뺭볃뇤솿웕뇩듦퓚ퟅ쿔훸뗄쟷쫆탔,튲쓑틔듓훐톡퓱뫏쫊뗄에뇰뇤솿ꆣ놾컄뗚뛾늿럖톡퓱돶럻뫏뇪ힼ뗄뇤솿;뗚죽늿럖볲싔럖컶뇜쮰FDI뗄뚯믺폫샠탍;뗚쯄뫍뗚컥늿럖,틔뗚뛾늿럖훐톡퓱돶뗄에뇰뇤솿캪훷튪뗄뷢쫍뇤솿,늢뷡뫏틑폐컄쿗톡퓱죴룉뿘훆뇤솿,붨솢볆솿쒣탍,볬퇩늻춬살풴FDI뗄탔훊,볲튪럖컶뷼쓪살늻춬살풴FDI뇈샽뫍쫽솿뗄뇤뚯벰웤풭틲,뗚쇹늿럖쳡돶헾닟붨틩ꆣ뛾ꆢ뛔에뇰뇤솿뗄럖컶Markusen뗈(1996)뫍Yeaple(2003)쪹폃뗄뻹쫇튻냣뻹뫢쒣탍,쳖싛늻춬샠탍뿧맺릫쮾뗄닺짺쳵볾ꆣ놾컄맘탄뗄쫇뛔쳘뚨뚫뗀맺쯹컼쫕FDI뗄탔훊뗄에뇰뇤솿,횻탨볲떥뗄뺲첬뻖늿뻹뫢럖컶벴뿉쮵쏷,뾼싇떽욪럹,놾컄횱뷓틽폃Yeaple(2003)퓚뷸탐뻖늿뻹뫢럖컶쪱뗄췆떼뷡맻살뷸탐쳖싛ꆣ룃쒣탍짦벰솽룶쿠춬뗄놱랽맺볒(EꆢW)뫍튻룶쓏랽맺볒(S),튻룶췪좫뺺헹탐튵Y뫍튻룶슢뛏뺺헹탐튵X;뿧맺릫쮾횻듦퓚폚놱랽맺볒뫍X탐튵훐,쎿룶릫쮾짺닺튻훖닮뇰뮯뗄짌욷,퓚뷶폚놾맺짺닺ꆢ뛔쇭튻놱랽맺볒뷸탐횱뷓춶(쮮욽탍FDI)ꆢ뛔쓏랽맺볒뷸탐횱뷓춶(뒹횱탍FDI)ꆢ춬쪱뛔쇭솽룶맺볒뷸탐횱뷓춶(뢴퓓튻쳥뮯FDI)쯄훖닟싔횮볤뷸탐톡퓱;횻폐놱랽맺볒쿻럑X탐튵닺욷,놱랽쿻럑헟뗄킧폃몯쫽탎쪽캪:NUꛂꛁ1Πꛁ=YX1-ꛂ,X=ꇆxi,ꛁ=1-1Πꛒ,쟒ꛒ>1i=1ꆡꆡ퓲퓚쒳튻놱랽맺볒훐,뛔X탐튵훐쒳튻닺욷i뗄탨쟳몯쫽캪:Nꛒꛒ11-ꛒxi=(1-ꛂ)E-1-ꛒNqpi,웤훐q=ꇆ1-pi,pi캪i뗄볛룱,EN캪튻룶놱랽맺볒쯹폐튪쯘뗄i=1쫕죫ꆣ횻뾼싇X늿쏅,퓚튪쯘볛룱만뚨ꆢ릫쮾쫓볛룱횸쫽q캪룸뚨쟩뿶쿂,웤샻죳ퟮ듳뮯뗄닺욷볛룱캪떥캻돉놾Ci뗄만뚨볓돉,벴:pi=CiΠꛁꆣ(튻)뷸탐뒹횱탍FDI뗄쳵볾듋쪱릫쮾퓚뷶폚놾맺짺닺믲퓚쓏랽맺볒뷸탐짺닺뫳퓋믘놱랽맺볒쿺쫛솽훖톡퓱볤뷸탐좨뫢,붫웤퓚뫳헟쟩뿶쿂쯹믱샻죳복좥잰헟쟩뿶쿂샻죳,뿉뗃:(1+ꛄ1-ꛒ)A(C1-ꛒS-C1-ꛒN)-RNꛈS(1)ꆡꆡ쿔좻,횻폐떱(1)쪽듳폚0쪱릫쮾닅믡뷸탐뒹횱탍FDIꆣ쪽훐,ꛄ캪X늿쏅뗄뇹즽탍맺볊쎳틗돉96
2007쓪뗚12웚놾,벴죴폐1떥캻뗄컯욷떽듯쒿뗄뗘,퓲탨ꛄ>1떥캻뗄컯욷놻웰퓋;CS=ꛄꛋR1-ꛋN,CN=WꛋNR1-ꛋN,럖뇰뇭쪾퓚쓏랽맺볒뫍놱랽맺볒짺닺쪱뗄ퟮ훕닺욷떥캻돉놾,WN뫍RN럖뇰캪놱랽맺볒뗄솽훖짺닺튪쯘샍뚯뫍ꆰ벼쓜ꆱ뗄떥캻볛룱,ꛈS캪퓚쓏랽맺볒춶쯹탨ꆰ벼쓜ꆱ뗄쫽솿,ꛄ<WN듓뛸CS<CN;Aꛒ=-1(1-ꛂ)ꛁ1-ꛒꛒ-1qENꆣ붫CSꆢCN뗄뇭듯쪽듺죫(1)쪽,뿉뗃:(1+ꛄ1-ꛒ)A(ꛄꛋ(1-ꛒ)(R1-ꛋ)(1-ꛒ)N-Wꛋ(1-ꛒ)(N-R1-ꛋ)(1-ꛒ)N)-RNꛈS(2)ꆡꆡ쿔좻횻폐ꛄ뿉쓜럻뫏잰컄쳡돶뗄뇪ힼ,짨(2)쪽캪F1,쟳웤뛔ꛄ뗄튻뷗욫떼,뗃:5F1(1-ꛋ)(1-ꛒ)N(ꛄꛋ(1-ꛒ)-Wꛋ(1-ꛒ)N)(1-ꛒ)+Aꛄꛋ(1-ꛒ)-1(R1-ꛋ)(1-ꛒ)N(1+ꛄ1-ꛒ)ꛋ(1-ꛒ)<05ꛄ=Aꛄ-ꛒRꆡꆡ틲듋,ꛄ풽듳,퓲(2)쪽뗄횵풽킡,듓뛸릫쮾뷸탐뒹횱탍FDI뗄뿉쓜탔풽킡ꆣ(뛾)뷸탐쮮욽탍FDI뗄쳵볾듋쪱릫쮾퓚뷶폚놾맺짺닺믲퓚쇭튻룶놱랽맺볒춬쪱짺닺늢쿺쫛솽훖톡퓱볤뷸탐좨뫢,붫웤퓚뫳헟쟩뿶쿂쯹믱샻죳복좥잰헟쟩뿶쿂샻죳,뿉뗃:C1-ꛒNA(1-ꛄ1-ꛒ)-RNꛈN(3)ꆡꆡꛈN캪퓚쇭튻놱랽맺볒춶쯹탨ꆰ벼쓜ꆱ뗄쫽솿,붫CN뗄뇭듯쪽듺죫(3)쪽,뿉뗃:Wꛋ(1-ꛒ)(NR1-ꛋ)(1-ꛒ)NA(1-ꛄ1-ꛒ)-RNꛈN(4)ꆡꆡ짨(4)쪽캪F2,쟳웤뛔ꛄ뗄튻뷗욫떼,뗃:5F2(1-ꛋ)(1-ꛒ)NW(1-ꛋ)(1-ꛒ)N(15ꛄ=-Aꛄ-ꛒR-ꛒ)>0ꆡꆡꛄ풽킡,퓲(4)쪽뗄횵풽킡,듓뛸릫쮾뷸탐쮮욽탍FDI뗄뿉쓜탔풽킡ꆣ(죽)에뇰뇤솿뗄좷뚨ꛄ뛔솽훖샠탍FDI뗄펰쿬쿠랴,ꛄ풽듳,퓲뒹횱탍FDI랢짺뗄뿉쓜탔풽킡,쮮욽탍FDI랢짺뗄뿉쓜탔풽듳ꆣ룃쒣탍훐뗄ꛄ듺뇭쇋폫맺볊쎳틗쿠맘ꆢ뛸폫FDI컞맘뗄튻쾵쇐돉놾(싊),냼삨퓋쫤돉놾ꆢ쿻럑탅쾢돉놾뫍믵컯컳웚뛸닺짺뗄돉놾ꆣ뮹뿉틔퓶볓맘쮰돉놾ꆣ뷸튻늽럖컶,뿧맺릤튵퓋쫤믹놾틀뾿몣퓋,쿖쪵훐뗄몣퓋돉놾뿉틔듳훂짏뚨틥캪몽쿟뎤뛈폫몣퓋볛룱(떥볛)뗄몯쫽ꆣ헽죧Carr뗈(2001)횸돶뗄,쒸맺폫뚫뗀맺횮볤뗄뗘샭뻠샫퓚퓶듳맺볊쎳틗돉놾뗄춬쪱,춬퇹퓶듳쇋듓쫂FDI뗄춶뫍맜샭돉놾ꆣ틲듋내ꛄ뚨틥,몽쿟뎤뛈늻펦놻냼몬퓚ꛄ훐ꆣꋙ늻럁짨ꛄ=ꛄ(<,ꛑ,ꛌ,ꛓ),삨뫅훐뇤솿럖뇰듺뇭몣퓋볛룱ꆢ쿻럑탅쾢돉놾ꆢ믵컯컳웚뛸닺짺뗄돉놾ꆢ맘쮰싊;쿔좻,ꛄ<>0,ꛄꛑ>0,ꛄꛌ>0,ꛄꛓ>0,틲뛸룷뇤솿뛔솽훖FDI뗄펰쿬뻹쏷좷쿠랴ꆣ듓톰헒에뇰뇤솿뗄뷇뛈돶랢,쿻럑탅쾢돉놾ꆢ믵컯컳웚뛸닺짺뗄돉놾뻹쓑틔헒떽뫏쫊뗄뫢솿쫽뻝;룄룯틔살훐맺뗄맘쮰싊듦퓚쏷쿔뗄쿂붵쟷쫆,쓑틔폃ퟷ에뇰뇤솿;쯹틔놾컄붫닉폃맺볊몣퓋볛룱ퟷ캪에뇰뇤솿,늢내맺뇰(뗘쟸)럖ퟩ,뛔쇷죫훐맺뗄FDI뗄탔훊뷸탐에뇰ꆣ탨튪횸돶뗄쫇,죧맻폐룷맺뿧맺릫쮾퓚뮪믺릹뗄ퟜ쿺쫛뛮뫍돶뿚뛮쫽뻝,떱좻뻍뿉틔횱뷓에뛏룃맺뛔뮪FDI뗄탔훊,떫룃쫽뻝쓑틔믱뗃;뾼싇떽듳솿뿚쎳틗뗄듦퓚ꆢ쮮욽탍뫍뒹횱탍FDI웳튵뛔뷸뿚춶죫욷뗄쿠춬틀삵뗈틲쯘,룷맺(뗘쟸)뛔뮪FDI뷰뛮뫍웤폫뮪쎳틗ퟜ뛮횮볤뗄맘쾵쿠떱뢴퓓쟒늻좷뚨,쓑틔춨맽맀쯣솽헟횮볤쫇ꆰ뮥늹ꆱ뮹쫇ꆰ쳦듺ꆱ뗄맘쾵살뛔FDI뗄탔훊뷸탐에뇰ꆣ틲듋,놾컄쎻폐붫훐맺폫쒸맺뗄쎳틗뛮쫽뻝쓉죫럖컶ꆣꋙ몽쿟뎤뛈틲쯘놻Yeaple(2003)짡쿳쇋ꆣ뿉틔힢틢떽,쿖쪵훐뿉뗃뗄몽쿟뎤뛈쫽뻝횻쓜쫇춶쒸맺폫뚫뗀맺횮볤뗄몽쿟뎤뛈,뛸퓚돉욷믲훐볤욷뗄짺닺뫍쿺쫛짦벰뗚죽맺쟒뚫뗀맺폫뗚죽맺ꆢ뚫뗀맺폫쒸맺볤몽쿟뎤뛈늻쿠뗈뗄쟩뿶쿂,쪵볊뗄몽쿟뎤뛈늢늻뗈폚쒸맺폫뚫뗀맺횮볤뗄몽쿟뎤뛈(믲웤솽놶),쳘뇰쫇뛔쓇킩살ퟔ뇜쮰뗘뗄FDI뛸퇔ꆣ늻맽,Carr뗈(2001)횸돶뗄컊쳢믡떼훂뗘샭뻠샫뇤솿뛔쮮욽탍FDI뗄펰쿬늻좷뚨,틑ퟣ틔업돽몽쿟뎤뛈돉캪에뇰뇤솿뗄뿉쓜ꆣ97
톦싾쳬ꆢ헔쫯뚫:췢짌횱뷓춶:뒹횱탍뮹쫇쮮욽탍?듋췢,놾쒣탍뗄뷡싛폫Yeaple(2003)횸돶뗄훐뗈떽뷏룟뗄퓋쫤돉놾듙뷸뿧맺릫쮾뢴퓓튻쳥뮯춶뗄맛뗣늢늻쎬뛜:뿧맺릫쮾퓚쫀뷧랶캧쓚뿉쓜춬쪱춶폚랢듯맺볒뫍랢햹훐맺볒ꆢ쪵탐뢴퓓튻쳥뮯,떫뻍쳘뚨뚫뗀맺뛸퇔,늻춬샠탍뗄FDI죔럾듓쿠춬뗄맦싉ꆣ뷸튻늽,춬튻뿧맺릫쮾튲뿉쓜춬쪱뛔쒳뚫뗀맺뷸탐솽훖FDI,떫맦싉죔늻뇤;퓚듋쟩뿶쿂,평폚웤훐뗄쮮욽탍FDI늿럖뫜뿉쓜쟣쿲폚죆뗀뇜쮰뗘뷸탐춶(닎볻쿂컄럖컶),틲듋죔뿉틔틀뻝FDI살풴뗘뛔웤탔훊뷸탐에뛏ꆣ죽ꆢ뛔살ퟔ뇜쮰뗘뗄FDI럖컶퓚컒맺쪵볊샻폃뗄FDI훐,폐뫜듳럝뛮살ퟔ맺볊뇜쮰뗘,평폚헢킩뇜쮰뗘놾짭뗄뺭볃맦쒣췹췹벫킡믲쿠뛔웤뛔뮪FDI맦쒣살쮵뫜킡,뿉틔죏캪헢킩FDI훐훷튪돉럖쫇죆뗀뗄춶ꆣ뿧맺릫쮾샻폃뇜쮰뗘뗄ퟮ훷튪랽쪽쫇붫샻죳듓룟쯹뗃쮰싊뗄뚫뗀맺틆떽뗍쯹뗃쮰싊뗄뇜쮰뗘,헢쓜릻뷢쫍늿럖살ퟔ뇜쮰뗘뗄FDI뗄뚯믺ꆣ늻맽펦힢틢떽,퓚퇹놾웚볤,훐맺뛔췢웳튵헷쫕뗄쯹뗃쮰싊쿠떱뗍,뾼싇떽폅믝헾닟,쪵볊쮰싊뗍폚탭뛠뇜쮰뗘ꆣ죧맻쫇돶폚잰쫶쒿뗄,퓲탭뛠뿧맺릫쮾췪좫뿉틔횱뷓뛔컒맺뷸탐FDI,컞탫죆뗀뇜쮰뗘,떫쿔좻듳솿뗄FDI죔좻뷨뗀헢킩뇜쮰뗘뷸죫쇋컒맺ꆣ쓇쎴,헢튻탐캪뮹폐ퟅ쓄킩훘튪뚯믺?쯹폐헢킩뚯믺뛔쓄훖샠탍뗄FDI룼볓훘튪?쫗쿈쳖싛잰튻컊쳢ꆣ뻍훷튪풭틲살쮵,튻랽쏦,듳뛠쫽맺볒뚼뛔놾맺뻓쏱퓚뗍쮰뚫뗀맺좡뗃뗄쮰뫳쫕죫늹헷쯹뗃쮰,횣뒺죙(2001)ꆢAltshuler뗈(2003)횸돶뿧맺릫쮾뎣샻폃뇜쮰뗘럖횧믺릹췆동쿲쒸맺뗄샻죳믣믘믲룹놾늻믣믘,듓뛸듯떽쪹웤퓚뗍쮰싊뚫뗀맺믱뗃뗄샻죳뇜쮰뗄쒿뗄;쇭튻랽쏦,평폚컒맺쪹폃ꆰ힢닡뗘풭퓲ꆱ좷죏췢짭럝,퓚뇜쮰뗘힢닡샫낶릫쮾뫳뷸탐뛔뮪FDI뿉틔웰떽뮻놾짭럝뗄ퟷ폃,헢뻍짦벰떽듳솿ꆰ볙췢ꆱ,샠쯆뗄뮹폐죆맽첨췥뗘쟸떱뻖춶쿞훆뗄첨ꆣ퓙럖컶뗚뛾룶컊쳢ꆣDesai뗈(2004,2006)럖컶쇋1982쓪훁1999쓪볤쏀맺뿧맺릫쮾뗄쫽뻝,횸돶듳탍뗄ꆢ훷튪퓚뗍쮰싊뚫뗀맺퓋ퟷ뗄ꆢ벼쫵쏜벯탍뗄ꆢ릫쮾쓚쎳틗뇈샽룟뗄탐튵뗄뿧맺릫쮾룼쟣쿲폚샻폃뇜쮰뗘,뿧맺릫쮾퓚쇚뷼뇜쮰뗘뗄럇뇜쮰뗘뚫뗀맺뗄쿺쫛뛮ꆢ춶뛮뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈쎿퓶볓튻룶냙럖뗣,쯼퓚룃뇜쮰뗘짨솢믺릹뗄룅싊뻍붫럖뇰짏짽115ꆪ2룶냙럖뗣ꆣ춬퇹,믘맋짏컄럖컶뿉횪,욲좥뮻짭럝뗄쒿뗄늻첸,잰솽훖뚯믺뻹폫뿧맺릫쮾퓚뚫뗀맺믱뗃뗄샻죳쿠맘,쓇쎴쿔좻,뛔쳘뚨뚫뗀맺뛸퇔,헢킩뚯믺뛔폚쮮욽탍FDI뇈뒹횱탍FDI튪잿쇒뗃뛠,뾼싇떽컒맺쪵탐뗄퇏룱뗄췢믣맜훆훆뛈뫳뻍룼쫇죧듋ꆣ췢웳뗄샻죳틆탐캪훷튪랢짺퓚짨솢ꆢ닉릺ꆢ뷨듻ꆢ쿺쫛뗈뮷뷚ꆣ뛔폚뒹횱탍FDI,뿧맺릫쮾퓚뚫뗀맺뗄릤뎧뷶샻폃떱뗘솮볛샍뚯솦듓쫂볓릤튵컱,횻폐캢놡뗄샻죳,뛸쟒퓚짏쫶룷뮷뷚ꆢ쳘뇰쫇돶뿚뮷뷚(죧춨맽뿚쎳틗)뿉틔쟡틗뗘틆샻죳,틲뛸쎻폐뇘튪죆뗀뇜쮰뗘뷸탐춶(틲캪죆뗀뇜쮰튲폐튻뚨돉놾)ꆣ뻍쮮욽탍FDI뛸퇔,뿧맺릫쮾뗄쿺쫛쫕죫ퟮ훕살풴폚뚫뗀맺쫐뎡,쯹뗃뇜쮰컊쳢훷튪랢짺퓚뿧맺릫쮾퓚뚫뗀맺뗄럖횧믺릹ꆣ퓚훐맺,평폚펪튵쫕죫믹놾캪죋쏱뇒탎쪽,쏦뛔퇏룱뗄췢믣맜훆,뿧맺릫쮾캪쇋쳓ꆢ뇜쮰붫늻뗃늻닉좡쾴잮ꆢ뷨듻룸맘솪췢웳튵짵훁쯦짭킯듸뗈랽램붫샻죳틆돶뺳(헅훐탣,2001)ꆣ뮻퇔횮,뿧맺릫쮾붫쓑틔퓚쿺쫛뮷뷚뇜쮰,뛸쫆뇘퓚짨솢ꆢ닉릺ꆢ뷨듻뗈뮷뷚틆샻죳,폫짨퓚뇜쮰뗘뗄쒸릫쮾뷸탐짏쫶뮷뷚뗄췹살쫇폐킧뗄ퟶ램ꆣ뷸튻늽,벴쪹퓚훐맺뇜쮰늻돉믲틲훐맺쮰싊룼뗍뛸퓚훐맺쓉쮰,뮹뿉틔붫쮰뫳샻죳믣믘뇜쮰뗘쒸릫쮾,닉폃튻킩뢴퓓뗄닺퓋ퟷ(Desai뗈,2006)췆동샻죳믣믘쒸맺뗄쪱볤믲늻믣믘,듯떽뇜쮰쒿뗄ꆣ틲듋,뷸탐쮮욽탍FDI뗄뿧맺릫쮾폐잿뗃뛠뗄뚯믺죆뗀뇜쮰뗘뷸탐춶ꆣ퓙뾼싇ꆰ볙췢ꆱ뫍죆뗀뗄첨ꆣ평폚뎤웚틔살쓚췢웳튵쮰쫕뢺떣ꆢ뺭펪뮷뺳쿠닮뷏듳,듳솿쓚웳튵퓚뇜쮰뗘힢닡램죋믺릹뫳퓙믘맺춶,틔췢짭럝쿭쫜폅믝헾닟늢뷸탐뇜쮰믮뚯ꆣꆰ볙췢ꆱ뗄맦쒣짐컞릫죏뗄춳볆믲맀쯣쫽뻝,늻맽퓚죋쏱뇒짽횵뫍ꆰ솽쮰뫏튻ꆱ뗄놳뺰쿂,풤볆웤맦쒣붫98
2007쓪뗚12웚톸쯙붵뗍ꆣ뛔폚헢킩쫂쪵짏뗄듳슽쓚뗘놾틔벰죆뗀뗄첨,뻹쓑틔에뛏웤폫맺볊몣퓋볛룱횮볤뗄맘쾵,떫펦늻듦퓚쿔훸뗄뢺쿠맘ꆣ퓚죽듎닺튵훐,놾컄훘뗣럖컶쇷죫뗚뛾닺튵뗄FDI,뗚튻닺튵샻폃FDI벫짙,늻맽럾컱튵샻폃뗄FDI퓲늻쓜췪좫뫶쫓ꆣ듓ퟜ솿살뾴,퓚퇹놾웚볤,럾컱튵샻폃FDI뷰뛮듳훂햼FDIퟜ뛮뗄1Π4ퟳ폒;듓뻟쳥탐튵럖늼짏뾴,뷘훁2003쓪,럾컱튵뫏춬샻폃FDIퟜ뛮훐뗄6117%뚼춶죫쇋랿뗘닺튵(틳럯,2006)ꆣ뛔폚뷸죫럾컱튵뗄FDI,평폚웤쿺쫛쫕죫벸뫵췪좫살ퟔ뚫뗀맺쫐뎡,춬퇹쫊폚죆뗀뇜쮰뗘뷸탐춶ꋙ,틲듋뫜뿉쓜뻸듳늿럖살ퟔ폚뇜쮰뗘ꆣ럾컱튵FDI쇷솿펦훷튪쫜뚫뗀맺럾컱튵랢햹쮮욽ꆢ뾪럅헾닟뫍믣싊뗄펰쿬,폫맺볊몣퓋볛룱횮볤뿉쓜늻듦퓚쿔훸뗄쿠맘탔ꆣ뻝짏컄뗄럖컶췆뛏:살ퟔ뇜쮰뗘(럇뇜쮰뗘)뗄FDI쇷솿펦뻟폐쿔훸뗄쮮욽(뒹횱)탍쳘헷,폫맺볊몣퓋볛룱볤펦듦퓚쿔훸뗄헽(뢺)쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ쯄ꆢ쒣탍릹붨폫쫽뻝살풴(튻)퇹놾폫쫽뻝톡퓱뺭샺쇋20쫀볍80쓪듺쒩훁90쓪듺돵뗄훎샭헻뛙,퓚뗋킡욽1992쓪쓏톲붲뮰횮뫳,컒맺뗄뛔췢뾪럅뷸죫쇋룟뎱ꆣ틲듋,놾컄톡퓱1992ꆪ2004쓪볤내맺뇰(뗘쟸)춳볆뗄쪵볊샻폃FDI쫽뻝뛔짏쫶컊쳢뷸탐쪵횤볬퇩,톡퓱뇪ힼ캪:(1)퇹놾맺(뗘쟸)퓚룷쓪뛔훐맺뗄쪵볊횱뷓춶뻹듳폚5췲쏀풪;(2)뿉틔뗃떽퇹놾맺(뗘쟸)뗄룷훖뺭볃쳘헷횵ꆣ듋췢,뛔폚살ퟔ맺볊뇜쮰뗘뗄FDI(쿂컄훐돆캪ꆰ뇜쮰FDIꆱ,쿠펦뗘살ퟔ럇뇜쮰뗘뗄FDI퓲돆캪ꆰ맺뇰FDIꆱ),평폚컞램에쏷웤헦쪵살풴쟒퇹놾뷏짙,컞탫뾼싇짏쫶뗚뛾쳵뇪ힼ,뛔뗚튻쳵뇪ힼ튲폐쯹럅쯉ꆣꋚ틲뇤솿ꆢ맺볊몣퓋볛룱뫍뷨본틑폐컄쿗톡폃뗄뿘훆뇤솿뗄뚨틥뫍뷢쫍볻뇭2ꆣ캪맦뇜틬랽닮탔,뛔듳늿럖뇤솿좡쇋ퟔ좻뛔쫽,폃뇤솿잰뗄ꆰLꆱ뇭쪾ꆣ듋췢,캪뇜쏢ꆰ캱믘맩ꆱ컊쳢,뛔룷뇤솿뷸탐쇋떥캻룹볬퇩,뛔폚룷뷘쏦늻춬뗄뇤솿,닉폃볙뚨룷뷘쏦탲쇐뻟폐늻춬뗄떥캻룹맽돌뗄Im2Pesaran2Shin(IPS)볬퇩;뛔폚룷뷘쏦쿠춬뗄뇤솿,닉폃볙뚨룷뷘쏦탲쇐뻟폐쿠춬뗄떥캻룹맽돌뗄Levin2Lin2Chu(LLC)볬퇩ꆣ듓뇭훐뿉횪,틲뇤솿LFDI캪욽컈뇤솿,뛸LGDP뫍LWAퟷ캪럇욽컈뇤솿쓑틔쓉죫뷢쫍뇤솿훐ꆣ(뛾)볆솿쒣탍뗄릹붨11볆솿쒣탍탎쪽뗄톡좡FDI튻냣뻟폐쏷쿔뗄슷뺶틀삵쳘헷,틲듋놾컄닉폃뚯첬쏦냥쫽뻝쒣탍뷸탐맀볆,벴퓚뷢쫍뇤솿훐냼몬틲뇤솿뗄튻뷗훍뫳횵ꆣꋛ평폚듋쪱훍뫳틲뇤솿폫컳닮쿮쿠맘,ퟮ킡뛾돋램(LS)늻퓙쓜튻훂뫍컞욫뗘맀볆닎쫽,놾컄닉폃맣틥뻘맀볆솿(GMMestimator)뛔룷랽돌뷸탐쇋맀볆,웤풭샭쫇춨맽훍뫳틲뇤솿폫컳닮쿮횮볤뗄헽붻쳵볾쳡좡뻘쳵볾,뿉틔뗃떽튻훂뗄맀볆횵ꆣ퓚뷸탐GMM맀볆쪱,놾컄퓋폃튻뷗닮럖램뛔풭맀볆랽돌뷸탐뮻,톡퓱듓뛾뷗뾪쪼쯹폐뿉폃뗄훍뫳틲뇤솿닮럖쿮ퟷ캪훍뫳틲뇤솿튻뷗닮럖쿮뗄릤뻟뇤솿,늢톡폃White훰웚킭랽닮뻘헳(Whiteperiodcovariance)뷸탐볓좨뫍뗼듺ꆣ평폚릤뻟뇤솿뻘헳쯦뷢쫍뇤솿룶쫽퓶볓뛸톸쯙삩듳,뛔퇹놾죝솿튪쟳룟,퓚뛔퇹놾뷏킡뗄ꋙ쿄뷜뎤뗈(2004)횸돶,풽살풽뛠뗄횤뻝뇭쏷,뗍쮰쫕뛔폚폫뮥솪췸쿠맘뗄짌튵ꆢ놣쿕뫍틸탐튵뗄횱뷓춶뻶닟뿉쓜쫇맘볼뗄펰쿬틲쯘,헢킩탐튵뗄뿧맺릫쮾룼쟣쿲폚샻폃뇜쮰뗘ꆣꋚ틀뻝짏쫶뇪ힼ,럇뇜쮰뗘FDI살풴맺(뗘쟸)냼삨죕놾ꆢ뇈샻쪱ꆢ떤싳ꆢ펢맺ꆢ뗂맺ꆢ램맺ꆢ틢듳샻ꆢ컷냠퇀ꆢ냂뗘샻ꆢ럒삼ꆢ죰뗤ꆢ볓쓃듳ꆢ쏀맺ꆢ냄듳샻퇇ꆢ탂컷삼ꆢ틔즫쇐ꆢ탂볓웂ꆢ훐맺첨췥ꆢ몫맺ꆢ펡뛈쓡컷퇇ꆢ십살컷퇇ꆢ첩맺ꆢ탙퇀샻ꆢ싞십쓡퇇ꆢ뛭싞쮹ꆢ낢룹춢ꆢ냍컷ꆢ냍삭맧ꆢ쏘슳뗈29룶ꆣ뇜쮰뗘냼삨훐맺쿣룛ꆢ훐맺냄쏅ꆢ럆싉뇶ꆢ뫉삼ꆢ죰쪿ꆢ냍쓃십ꆢ뾪싼좺떺ꆢ캬뛻뺩좺떺ꆢ냙쒽듳ꆢ죸쒦퇇ꆢ쎫샯쟳쮹ꆢ냍맾십뗈12룶,웤훐뾪싼좺떺좱짙1992쓪훁1993쓪쫽뻝,죸쒦퇇좱짙1992쓪쫽뻝,캪놣횤폃욽뫢쏦냥쫽뻝뷸탐럖컶,뇜쮰뗘쏦냥쫽뻝뗄쪱볤탲쇐뗷헻캪1994쓪훁2004쓪ꆣꋛ평폚룼룟뷗뗄훍뫳틲뇤솿뗄쾵쫽맀볆횵뻹캴쓜춨맽쿔훸탔볬퇩,놾컄톡퓱훍뫳튻웚뗄틲뇤솿ퟷ캪뷢쫍뇤솿ꆣ99
톦싾쳬ꆢ헔쫯뚫:췢짌횱뷓춶:뒹횱탍뮹쫇쮮욽탍?뇜쮰FDI랽돌뷸탐맀볆쪱놾컄복짙쇋뷢쫍뇤솿뗄룶쫽,본폚GMM랽램죝탭컳닮쿮듦퓚평폚틅슩뷢쫍뇤솿뛸닺짺뗄틬랽닮탔,틅슩뷢쫍뇤솿뗄컊쳢늻훁첫맽퇏훘ꆣ뇭2룷뇤솿뚨틥뇤솿뚨틥폫뷢쫍IPS볬퇩횵LLC볬퇩횵쪵볊샻폃췢뛮:닎볻헽컄,살풴폚샺쓪ꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ뫍ꆶ훐맺뛔췢쎳틗LFDI뺭볃쓪본ꆷ,좡쇋ퟔ좻뛔쫽ꆣ-41333445ꆪ맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵횮뇈:폃살뫢솿솽맺(뗘쟸)쫐뎡뗄쿠뛔맦쒣ꆣ쾵폃훐맺뗄쓪LGDPGDP뛮돽틔퇹놾뗘쟸춬쓪GDP뛮,떥캻뻹캪틚쏀풪,늢뺭GDP욽복횸쫽뗷1113ꆪ헻,쫽뻝뻹살ퟔ쫀뷧틸탐췸햾ꆣ좡쇋ퟔ좻뛔쫽ꆣGROW맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵쓪퓶뎤싊횮닮:폃살뫢솿훐맺쫐뎡잱솦뗄쿠뛔퓶뎤ꆣ폃훐맺뗄쓪GDP퓶뎤싊복좥퇹놾뗘쟸춬쓪쫽횵ꆣ쫽뻝살풴춬짏ꆣ-7133358ꆪ릤(쏀풪Π퓂)횮뇈:뫢솿샍뚯솦뗄쿠뛔돉놾,쾵폃훐맺뗄퓂릤돽틔퇹놾뗘쟸춬쓪퓂릤,릤쫽뻝살ퟔ맺볊샍릤ퟩ횯췸햾뗄춳볆,쫽뻝좱슩쪱볙뚨LWA웤폫쇚뷼쓪럝쿠춬;춳볆뿚뺶늻튻(뇒훖ꆢ킽웚)쪱퓲뗷헻캪틔쏀풪볆뗄퓂릤6135ꆪ,믣싊쫽뻝살ퟔIMF췸햾ꆣ좡쇋ퟔ좻뛔쫽ꆣLW뛔LWA좡튻뷗닮럖:뫢솿쿠뛔샍뚯솦돉놾뗄뇤뮯ꆣ3-121332ꆪ훐맺뗚죽닺튵닺횵퓚GDP훐뇈훘:폃살뫢솿믹뒡짨쪩(냼삨뷰죚ꆢ춨탅ꆢ붻LSERV춨뗈랽쏦)뗄랢햹돌뛈,좡ퟔ좻뛔쫽ꆣ쫽뻝살ퟔꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷꆣꆪ-9133370뛔죋쏱뇒쪵볊폐킧믣싊횸쫽(좡ퟔIMF뗄ꆶ맺볊뷰죚춳볆ꆷ)좡ퟔ좻뛔쫽ꆣ짏LREER3짽뇭쪾죋쏱뇒짽횵,쿂붵뇭쪾뇡횵ꆣꆪ-251339맺볊몣퓋볛룱:릤튵퓋쫤믹놾틀뾿몣퓋,닎뾼Hummels(1999)뫍슬럦(2004),LCOST톡퓱뗂맺퓋쫤늿릫늼뗄linershippingprices(좡ퟔ샺쓪ꆶ쫀뷧몣퓋놨룦ꆷ),뺭ꆪ-1013338뗂맺GDP욽복횸쫽뗷헻뫳퓙좡ퟔ좻뛔쫽ꆣ랴펳몣퓋볛룱뗄뇤뮯ꆣLGRCH훐맺쓪GDP퓶뎤싊,좡ퟔ좻뛔쫽ꆣꆪ-213303십살컷퇇폫훐맺퓂릤횮닮:뾼싇떽뿉뇈탔뫍헹좡FDI뗄뺺헹맘쾵ꋙ,퓚뛔뇜쮰FDI벰ퟜ쳥쫽뻝뷸탐럖컶쪱톡퓱십살컷퇇캪훐맺샍뚯솦돉놾뗄뛔뇈퇹LWAML놾,볆쯣랽램캪붫십살컷퇇퓂릤(쏀풪)복좥훐맺쿠펦쫽뻝,좡쇋ퟔ좻뛔ꆪ3-101339쫽,쫽뻝살풴춬LWAꆣꆡꆡ힢:(1333)ꆢ33ꆢ3럖뇰뇭쪾퓚1%ꆢ5%ꆢ10%뗄쿔훸탔쮮욽짏뻜뻸쇋풭볙짨;(2)잰8룶뇤솿뗄떥캻룹볬퇩톡퓱쇋럇뇜쮰ퟜ쳥쫽뻝훐쿠펦뗄뷘쏦탲쇐,LGRCHꆢLWAML톡퓱뇜쮰폫럇뇜쮰ퟜ쳥쫽뻝훐뷘쏦탲쇐,웤쯼쿠맘뷘쏦탲쇐(죧맺뇰럖ퟩꆢ뇤솿훍뫳쯹뗃뗄뷘쏦탲쇐)뗄볬퇩뷡맻폫뇭훐쯹쇐뻹샠쯆,캪뷚쪡욪럹,볬퇩횵늻퓙쇐돶ꆣ평폚GMM랽램튪쟳뷏듳뗄퇹놾죝솿,뛸놾컄퇹놾쫽죔좻폐쿞,틀뻝컈붡탔풭퓲,놾컄춬쪱닉폃쇋릤뻟뇤솿램(IV)뷸탐쇋맀볆,벴퓚뛔랽돌튻뷗닮럖횮뫳횻쪹폃뛾뷗훍뫳뗄쮮욽틲뇤솿ퟷ캪훍뫳틲뇤솿튻뷗닮럖쿮뗄릤뻟뇤솿,IV램뛔퇹놾죝솿튪쟳쎻폐GMM랽램룟,떫평폚룃랽램늻쓜샻폃ꋙ퓚퇇훞,십살컷퇇쫇돽훐맺췢컼쫕췢ퟮ뛠뗄랢햹훐맺볒,뻟폐헹좡FDI뗄뺺헹맘쾵;웤릤쮮욽뷏룟,떫폫훐맺죔뻟폐뿉뇈탔;듋췢,솽맺릤닮뛮뇤솿뻟폐욽컈탔ꆣ틲듋,놾컄퓚뛔뇜쮰FDI벰ퟜ쳥쫽뻝뷸탐럖컶쪱톡퓱십살컷퇇캪훐맺샍뚯솦돉놾뗄뛔뇈퇹놾ꆣ100
2007쓪뗚12웚쯹폐뿉믱뗃뗄뻘쳵볾,틲듋뿉쓜늻쓜뗃떽닎쫽뗄폐킧맀볆,퇹놾뷏듳쪱맀볆킧맻늻죧GMM랽램ꆣ놾컄폃IV램쯹뗃뷡맻폫GMM랽램믹놾튻훂,뛔ퟜ쳥벰맺뇰FDI뗄맀볆킧맻뇈GMM랽램닮,뛔뇜쮰FDI뗄맀볆킧맻퓲뷏뫃,컄훐쇐돶쇋뫳헟ꆣ21믘맩쒣탍틀뻝잰컄럖컶,뿉틔붫믹놾볆솿쒣탍뇭쪾죧쿂:LFDIi,t=ꛁi+ꛂgLFDIi,t-1+xitgꛃ+u(it5)ꆡꆡ웤훐xit캪1ꇁK쿲솿,ꛃ캪Kꇁ1쿲솿,K캪돽훍뫳틲뇤솿횮췢웤쯼뷢쫍뇤솿뗄룶쫽ꆣi=1,ꆭ,N,T=1,ꆭ,T,럖뇰뇭쪾뫡뷘쏦떥캻뫍쪱웚쫽ꆣꛁi뛈솿룷뷘쏦탲쇐뗄룶쳥닮틬,uit캪컳닮쿮ꆣ뾼싇떽릤쫽뻝뗄춳볆훍뫳,놾컄짨뚨ퟷ캪춶훷쳥뗄룷맺뿧맺릫쮾퓚ퟷ돶뻶닟쪱뿉틔맛달떽짏튻웚(쓪)뗄LWꆢLWAML,틔벰떱웚뗄뺭볃퓶뎤쯙뛈ꆢ럾컱튵랢햹ힴ뿶ꆢ믣싊뫍몣퓋볛룱,틲듋좡잰솽헟(뛔맺뇰FDI닉폃LW,뛔ퟜ쳥ꆢ뇜쮰FDI닉폃LWAML)뗄훍뫳튻웚쫽뻝뫍웤쯼뇤솿뗄떱웚쫽뻝ퟷ캪뷢쫍뇤솿,쪱볤탲쇐뎤뛈튲쿠펦뗷헻,뻟쳥볬퇩뷡맻닎볻뇭3ꆣ뇭3볆솿볬퇩뷡맻(틲뇤솿캪LFDI)i,t뇤솿Π퇹놾쳘헷쪽1쪽2쪽3쪽4쪽5쪽6쪽7퇹놾랶캧맺뇰ꆢ뇜쮰맺뇰뇜쮰FDI뇜쮰FDIFDI맺뇰FDI뇜쮰FDI뇜쮰FDIFDI(돽쿣룛췢)(돽쿣룛췢)LFD33333333333333Ii,t-1013570128801390013336190133395101757013857LGRCHt11333371ꆪꆪꆪ11333333931ꆪ11343LWAMLt-1-013248ꆪꆪꆪ-01459ꆪ01142GROWi,tꆪ-01004ꆪꆪꆪꆪꆪLWi,t-1ꆪ-0133290ꆪꆪꆪꆪꆪLSERV3333333333t31208213376711790-1138-413634-31911-31286LREER333t31333333460133333362301376131331293109821908313962LCOST333333333333t-01752-01791-01336490134101350013363001396퇹놾햼쪵볊샻폃FDIퟜ뛮뇈샽96110%43165%43165%52145%52145%21112%21112%퇹놾죝솿3692902901081089999맀볆랽램GMMGMMGMMGMMIVGMMIVWald볬퇩횵22411333333333333334745155266435613787813332541912144133394J춳볆솿3719325189281668124ꆪ5196ꆪ맽뛈쪶뇰폐킧탔뗄P횵01337201306101278301410ꆪ015440ꆪAR(2)볬퇩횵1121016101501118ꆪ1137ꆪꆡꆡ힢3:(133)ꆢ33ꆢ3럖뇰뇭쪾퓚1%ꆢ5%ꆢ10%뗄쿔훸탔쮮욽짏뻜뻸쇋풭볙짨;(2)캪랽뇣폫뇜쮰FDI뛔뇈,쪽3싔좥쇋GROW뫍LW솽룶뷢쫍뇤솿ꆣ훚쯹훜횪,살ퟔ훐맺쿣룛뗄FDI쫽뛮뫜듳쟒돉럖뢴퓓,웤훐컞틉냼몬폐쿠떱쫽솿뗄뒹횱탍FDI뫍쯹캽ꆰ볙췢ꆱ,캪맦뇜틬뎣횵뗄펰쿬,쪽6ꆢ7닉폃돽좥훐맺쿣룛쫽뻝횮췢뗄뇜쮰FDI쫽뻝뷸탐쇋믘맩;(3)ꆰ퇹놾햼쪵볊샻폃FDIퟜ뛮뇈샽ꆱ틀뻝2004쓪쫽뻝볆쯣ꆣ101
톦싾쳬ꆢ헔쫯뚫:췢짌횱뷓춶:뒹횱탍뮹쫇쮮욽탍?컥ꆢ볆솿볬퇩뷡맻폫럖컶볆솿볬퇩뗄뷡맻쳥쿖퓚뇭3훐ꆣ놾컄뛔맀볆뗄룷쪽뻹볆쯣쇋Wald볬퇩횵,웤풭볙짨캪룷뷢쫍뇤솿뗄쾵쫽뻹캪쇣,럾듓ퟔ평뛈캪(K+1)뗄뾨랽럖늼,룷쪽뗄볬퇩횵뻹퓚1%뗄쿔훸탔쮮욽짏럱뚨쇋풭볙짨ꆣGMM랽램늻뚨틥뺭뗤뗄쓢뫏폅뛈,폃J춳볆솿놨룦쒿뇪몯쫽춨맽뗼듺듯떽뗄ퟮ킡횵,놾컄틀뻝J춳볆솿볆쯣쇋뫢솿(뻘쳵볾룶쫽뛠폚듽맀닎쫽룶쫽탎돉뗄)맽뛈쪶뇰뗄폐킧탔뗄볬퇩P횵,웤풭볙짨캪맽뛈쪶뇰쫇폐킧뗄,뷡맻쮵쏷맽뛈쪶뇰뻹캪폐킧ꆣ퓚쪹폃튻뷗닮럖램뗄GMM맀볆훐,튪쟳닐닮쿮늻듦퓚뛾뷗ퟔ쿠맘,뇭훐쇐돶쇋Arellano2BondAR(2)볬퇩횵,웤풭볙짨캪늻듦퓚뛾뷗ퟔ쿠맘,룷쪽뗄볬퇩횵뻹늻쓜럱뚨풭볙짨,쮵쏷쒣탍짨훃쫇뫏샭뗄ꆣ죧잰컄쯹쫶,놾컄훷튪틀뻝맺볊몣퓋볛룱LCOST뗄럻뫅에뇰뒹횱탍폫쮮욽탍FDIꆣ듓뇭3훐뿉틔뾴돶,퓚퇹놾웚볤,ퟜ쳥쫽뻝뫍맺뇰FDI듦퓚ퟅ쿔훸뗄뒹횱탍쳘헷,뛸뇜쮰FDI퓲듦퓚ퟅ쿔훸뗄쮮욽탍쳘헷,웤훐뫳헟퓚돽좥훐맺쿣룛쫽뻝뫳,죔좻놣돖ퟅ쮮욽탍쳘헷ꆣ퓙뾴웤쯼뷢쫍뇤솿ꆣ훍뫳튻웚뗄틲뇤솿뗄쾵쫽뻹캪헽횵쟒춨맽쇋1%쮮욽짏뗄쿔훸탔볬퇩,펡횤쇋FDI뗄슷뺶틀삵쳘헷,쮵쏷닉폃뚯첬쏦냥쒣탍쫇뫏샭뗄ꆣ뮹뿉틔힢틢떽,뇜쮰FDI뗄슷뺶틀삵쳘헷튪쏷쿔뗃뛠,뾼싇떽웤훷튪돉럖뻹틔훐맺쫐뎡캪훘탄,헢뿉쓜쫇틲캪훐맺쫐뎡맦쒣춨뎣뇈쒸맺퓶뎤룼뿬,떼훂ힷ볓춶뗄탐캪룼볓웕뇩ꆣ쪽1훐,훐맺쓪GDP퓶뎤싊뗄쾵쫽캪헽,훐맺쿠뛔십살컷퇇뗄릤닮뻠LWAMLt-1뗄쾵쫽캪뢺(틢캶ퟅ훐맺쿠뛔릤쳡짽듙뷸FDI쇷죫),랴뛸쿔쪾쇋튻뚨뗄쮮욽탍FDI쳘헷,헢쿔좻쫇틲캪ퟜ쳥쫽뻝냼몬쇋룷훖샠탍ꆣ쪽5ꆢ7훐,LGRCHt뗄쾵쫽뻹캪쿔훸뗄헽횵,LWAMLt-1뗄쾵쫽퓲뚼쎻폐춨맽쿔훸탔볬퇩,럻뫏쮮욽탍FDI뗄쳘헷:훘쫓뚫뗀맺뗄쫐뎡맦쒣퓶뎤,쟒뛔뚫뗀맺릤퓶뎤뗄랴펦늻좷뚨,펡횤쇋놾컄뛔뇜쮰FDI탔훊뗄에뛏ꆣ쪽2훐,솽맺GDP쓪퓶뎤싊횮닮GROWi,t-1뗄쾵쫽캪뢺,럻뫏뒹횱탍FDI뗄쳘헷,벴뿧맺릫쮾룼볓맘힢쒸맺뗄쫐뎡퓶뎤,떫룃쾵쫽쎻폐쓜춨맽쿔훸탔볬퇩;솽맺쿠뛔릤뇤뮯LWi,t-1뗄쾵쫽쿔훸캪뢺,뚫뗀맺쿠뛔릤퓶뎤풽뿬,퓲FDI뷰뛮풽킡,럻뫏뒹횱탍FDI뗄쳘헷ꆣ퓚룷쪽훐,죋쏱뇒쪵볊폐킧믣싊횸쫽LREER뗄쾵쫽뻹캪쿔훸뗄헽횵,죋쏱뇒짽횵듙뷸쇋FDI뗄쇷죫,헢폫뇭1훐잰죋뗄퇐뺿뷡맻늢늻튻훂,뿉쓜폫퇹놾뗄쪱뛎톡퓱폐맘ꆣ퓚짏쫀볍80쓪듺훁90쓪듺돵웚,죋쏱뇒늻뛏뇡횵;뛸쫜훆뛈뗈틲쯘펰쿬,룷맺뛔뮪FDI뻹쿔훸짏짽,죧냼몬룃쪱뛎쫽뻝,퓲뫜뿉쓜뗃돶뇡횵듙뷸FDI뗄뷡맻ꆣ뮹뿉틔힢틢떽쪽4ꆢ5ꆢ6ꆢ7훐LREER뗄쾵쫽튪뇈쪽2ꆢ3훐듳뗃뛠,뾼싇떽뷸죫럾컱튵뗄FDI(훷튪뷸죫쇋랿뗘닺튵)믹놾퓚뇜쮰FDI훐,헢뿉쓜쫇뷼쓪살뗄랿뗘닺튵FDI펰쿬뗄뷡맻ꆣ훁폚훐맺뗚죽닺튵닺횵퓚GDP훐뇈훘LSERV뗄쾵쫽,잰죽룶쪽ퟓ훐뻹쿔훸캪헽,쮵쏷믹뒡짨쪩뗄룄짆폐훺폚컼틽(뒹횱탍)FDI;쪽5ꆢ6훐퓲쿔훸캪뢺(쪽4ꆢ7훐캴춨맽쿔훸탔볬퇩),뿉쓜쫇뇜쮰FDI훐냼몬뗄럾컱튵FDI펰쿬뗄뷡맻,벴훐맺럾컱튵(랿뗘닺튵)풽늻랢듯,헢킩췢풽쟷쿲폚뷸죫ꆣ놾컄뗄짏쫶럖컶뫍볆솿볬퇩쮵쏷,20쫀볍90쓪듺틔살,쇷죫컒맺뗄맺뇰FDI(놾컄틔쿂늿럖훐ꆰ뇜쮰FDꋙIꆱ폫ꆰ맺뇰FDIꆱ뻹횸ퟜ뛮쫽뻝,뛸럇볆솿닉폃뗄쫽뻝)듦퓚ퟅ쿔훸뗄뒹횱탍쳘헷,뛸뇜쮰FDI듦퓚ퟅ쿔훸뗄쮮욽탍쳘헷,뾼싇떽뇜쮰FDI훐냼몬뗄럾컱튵FDIꆢ볙췢ꆢ뇜쮰뗘ퟔ짭뛔뮪FDIꋙ평폚룃쫽뻝폃폚ퟜ솿뗄럖컶,돽쇋쏦냥쒣탍훐쪹폃뗄12룶뇜쮰뗘쫽뻝췢,뮹냼삨낮뛻삼ꆢ죻웖슷쮹ꆢ슬즭놤ꆢ횱늼싞췓ꆢ쇐횧뛘쪿뗇ꆢ쒦쓉룧ꆢ컄삳ꆢ샻뇈샯퇇ꆢ쯷십샯ꆢ냍냍뛠쮹ꆢ늮샻ꆢ낲쳡맏뫍냍늼듯ꆢ쳘뿋쮹뫍뾭뿆쮹ꆢ쪥웤듄-쓡캬쮹ꆢ쪥컄즭쳘뫍룱쇖쓉뚡쮹ꆢ뿢뿋좺떺ꆢ슳ꆢ쯹싞쏅좺떺ꆢ쳀볓ꆢ믹샯냍쮹ꆢ십짜뛻좺떺ꆢ뚫죸쒦퇇ꆢ놴샍ꆢ낢슳냍떺ꆢꆰ웤쯼첫욽퇳떺포ꆱ뗈뇜쮰뗘ꆣ102
2007쓪뗚12웚뗈돉럖틔벰훐맺쿣룛틲쯘뗄펰쿬,퓚퇹놾웚볤쓚,뒹횱탍FDI펦떱퓚훆퓬튵늿쏅컼쫕뗄FDI훐햼폐뷏듳뗄럝뛮ꆣ붫살ퟔ뇜쮰뗘뗄쪵볊샻폃FDI뷰뛮돽틔춬쓪좫맺쪵볊샻폃FDIퟜ뛮,뿉뗃뇜쮰FDI뗄뇈샽ꆣ춼1쫇뇜쮰FDI뇈샽뗄헛쿟춼,뿉틔뾴돶,ퟔ1986쓪틔살,뇜쮰FDI뗄뇈샽퓚50%훁75%횮볤늨뚯,떽놾쫀볍돵듳훂캬돖퓚50%횮짏,2004쓪틔살폐톸쯙짏짽쟷쫆ꆣ뛔웤짏짽쟷쫆,뇊헟췆닢뿉쓜폐솽룶훷튪풭틲ꆣ뗚튻,헢튻뇈샽뗄짏짽쫜럾컱튵좫쏦뾪럅ꆢ죋쏱뇒풤웚짽횵놳뺰쿂럾컱튵FDI퓶뎤뗄펰쿬ꆣ룹뻝샺쓪ꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ,듓2004쓪떽2006쓪,럾컱튵ꋙ쪵볊샻폃FDI뷰뛮럖뇰캪148124ꆢ154104ꆢ206103틚쏀풪;쪵볊샻폃FDI햼뇈럖뇰캪24145%(랿뗘닺튵9181%)ꆢ25154%(랿뗘닺튵8198%)ꆢ32169%(랿뗘닺튵13106%),뗄좷폐톸쯙뗄퓶뎤ꆣ뗚뛾,뇜쮰FDI뇈샽뗄짏짽뿉쓜쫜뒹횱탍FDI뷰뛮쿂붵뗄펰쿬ꆣ듓샭싛짏럖컶,뒹횱탍FDI뗄쒿뗄훷튪쫇샻폃컒맺솮볛샍뚯솦ꆢ췁뗘풴뫍ꆰ뎬맺쏱듽폶ꆱ붵뗍짺닺돉놾ꆣ뛸퓚컒맺풴볛룱늻뛏짏헇ꆢ뛔쯹폐웳튵쪵탐릫욽듽폶ꆢ늢퇏샷쪵쪩랴뇜쮰헾닟횮뫳,뒹횱탍FDI뿉쓜붫복짙,틆떽풽쓏뗈풴ꆢ쮰쫕쳵볾룼볓폅믝뗄맺볒뫍뗘쟸ꆣ듓춼1ꆡ뇜쮰FDI햼쪵볊샻폃FDIퟜ뛮뇈샽(1986ꆪ2006)ꆡ2005쓪뾪쪼,폫맺뇰FDI뇈샽벰뷰뛮뗄쿂붵춬늽ꋚ,뛔컒맺뗄FDIퟜ뛮돶쿖쇋춣훍짵훁쿂붵뗄벣쿳,뛸쓏퇇ꆢ뚫쓏퇇컼쫕뗄FDI뷰뛮듳럹짏짽,헢낵쪾컒맺뗄풴볛룱ꆢ폅믝헾닟뛔뒹횱탍FDI뗄컼틽솦퓚늻뛏쿂붵ꆣ늻맽,톰헒웤쯼뗄횤뻝퓲뷏삧쓑,평폚췢웳튵돶뿚믹놾살ퟔ릤튵늿쏅,틲듋좡췢웳튵돶뿚뛮(좡ퟔ짌컱늿췸햾)돋틔죋쏱뇒쓪욽뻹믣볛훐볤볛,퓙돽틔죽릤튵ꋛ웳튵닺욷쿺쫛쫕죫(좡ퟔꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ),뿉틔뗃떽뷼쯆뗄죽릤튵웳튵돶뿚뇈샽ꆣ듓2004쓪떽2006쓪뗄룃뇈샽럖뇰캪48146%ꆢ46132%ꆢ45143%,튲폐쏷쿔뗄쿂붵,떫헢튲뿉쓜랴펳쇋풭폐췢웳튵복짙돶뿚뇈샽뗄펰쿬,틲듋횻쓜ퟷ캪닠쏦뗄횤뻝ꆣퟜ횮,2004쓪틔살,듓뇜쮰FDI뇈샽뗄뇤뚯럖컶,뷸죫컒맺뗄FDI뗄뷡릹헽퓚랢짺짮뿌뗄뇤,뛔평듋듸살뗄룷훖뺭볃펰쿬펦믽벫퇐뺿ꆣ뻍럾컱튵FDI뛸퇔,쫴폚쿖듺짺닺헟럾컱튵뗄뻟폐쿈뷸벼쫵뫍맜샭뗄췢뗄쫊솿뷸죫,폐샻폚듲웆쫐뎡슢뛏ꆢ닺짺벼쫵틧돶ꆢ퓶잿쓚훆퓬튵웳튵뗄뺺헹솦;떫듓폐맘쫽뻝뾴살,뷼쓪살럾컱튵FDI뗄퓶솿훷튪뷸죫쇋랿뗘닺튵,헢킩FDI늻뻟폐짏쫶뗄ퟷ폃,뛸쟒뿉쓜춨맽첧룟뗘볛훺뎤맺쓚닺엝쒭뗄탎돉ꆣ퓚훆퓬튵FDI훐,뒹횱탍FDI뗄복짙쓋훁늿럖춶듦솿훰늽쿲웤쯼퇘몣랢햹훐맺볒틆뿉쓜쫇늻뿉뇜쏢뗄,헢튪쟳컒맺틑볓죫웤릩펦솴뗄웳튵힡쪱믺뺡뿬쪵쿖퓚볛횵솴쓚뗄짽벶;춬쪱,쯦ퟅ컒맺쫐뎡맦쒣뗄늻뛏삩듳,쮮욽탍FDI뿉쓜죔붫뷸튻늽퓶뎤,퓙뾼싇떽럾컱튵FDI뛔샍뚯솦뗄컼쓉쓜솦,FDI뷡릹뗄뇤떱늻훂펰쿬뻍튵헟쫽솿,떫붫뛔샍뚯솦뗄쯘훊쳡돶뷏룟뗄튪쟳ꆣ쇹ꆢ웴ꆡ쪾듓짏컄뗄럖컶,뿉틔뗃돶죧쿂뗄헾닟웴쪾:ꋙ늻몬뗧솦ꆢ좼웸벰쮮뗄짺닺뫍릩펦튵ꆣꋚ2004쓪훁2006쓪볤맺뇰FDI뷰뛮럖뇰캪285128ꆢ262114ꆢ234198틚쏀풪;2007쓪뗄틑폐쫽뻝쿔쪾,살ퟔ훷튪럇뇜쮰뗘뗄FDIퟜ뛮돖탸쿂붵ꆣꋛꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ훐뗄릤튵뿚뺶늻뷶냼삨훆퓬튵ꆢ닉뻲튵,뮹냼삨쇋뗧솦ꆢ좼웸벰쮮뗄릩펦튵뗈뒫춳짏쫴폚럾컱튵늿쏅뗄탐튵ꆣ103
톦싾쳬ꆢ헔쫯뚫:췢짌횱뷓춶:뒹횱탍뮹쫇쮮욽탍?퓚뒹횱탍FDI쟷폚쿂붵뗄쟩뿶쿂,캪쇋놣횤뫪맛뺭볃뗄컈뚨,헾뢮펦볌탸뗷뷚쫕죫럖엤룱뻖,좷놣쓚탨돉캪뺭볃퓶뎤뗄훷튪뚯솦;춬쪱,볌탸퓶볓죋솦놾춶,쳡룟샍뚯솦쯘훊ꆢ짧믡럾컱짨쪩떵듎,틔컼틽뷏룟닣듎뗄뒹횱탍FDIꆢ쮮욽탍FDI뫍럾컱튵FDI뷸죫,쿞훆췢쇷죫랿뗘닺튵ꆣ룼뷴웈뗄쫇,펦뺡뿬쪵쿖뛔쓚췢웳튵뗄릫욽듽폶ꆣ튻랽쏦,쪵쿖쓚췢웳튵뗄릫욽듽폶폐훺폚쿻돽ꆰ볙췢ꆱ닺짺뗄뚯틲;쇭튻랽쏦,듲웆뛔맺쓚쏱펪웳튵랢햹뗄탐헾뇚생,쪹웤폫맺폐웳튵ꆢ췢웳튵쿭쫜욽뗈듽폶,폐훺폚볓죫좫쟲볛횵솴뗄쓚웳튵힡뒹횱탍FDI듳맦쒣틆횮잰뗄쪱믺ꆢ샻폃뻞듳뗄맺쓚쫐뎡쳡짽벼쫵뾪랢ꆢ펪쿺쓜솦,쪵쿖릦쓜짽벶,평ꆰ훐맺볓릤ꆱ훰늽쳡짽떽ꆰ훐맺뒴퓬ꆱꆣ듋췢,랴뇜쮰릤ퟷ펦떱뷸튻늽볓잿ꆣ듳솿FDI뷨뗀뇜쮰뗘뷸죫컒맺,틔벰췢웳튵뗄듳쏦믽뿷쯰쿖쿳ꋙ,쮵쏷컒맺뛔뿧맺릫쮾뗄뇜쮰탐캪뗄볠맜뮹폐듽볓잿ꆣ듓잰컄럖컶뿉틔뾴돶,ퟷ캪떱잰FDI뗄훷튪늿럖,뇜쮰FDI뗄믹놾돉럖뻹틔훐맺쫐뎡캪훘탄,쟒웤뇜쮰샻틦늢늻췪좫살ퟔ훐맺,볓잿랴뇜쮰릤ퟷ늻믡뛔웤쇷죫맦쒣폐쏷쿔펰쿬ꆣ헢웤훐폈웤횵뗃쳡돶뗄쫇펦쫊쪱붫짦췢쮰쫕헷맜뗄ꆰ힢닡뗘풭퓲ꆱ뇤캪ꆰ릫쮾뿘훆죋풭퓲ꆱ,헢쓜릻뛴훆뿧맺릫쮾틔벰ꆰ볙췢ꆱ훷쳥샻폃뇜쮰뗘뗄춶퓬돉컒맺쮰쫕뗄쇷쪧ꆣ놾컄뗄퇐뺿죔횻쫇돵늽뗄,쫂쪵짏,듓뛔뇜쮰FDI탔훊뗄에뛏돶랢,뮹뿉틔뗃떽늻짙폐좤뗄췆싛ꋚ,뷸튻늽뗄퇐뺿탨튪쇏뗄돖탸믽샛뫍퇐뺿랽램뗄볌탸룼탂ꆣ닎뾼컄쿗뚡믔쿀ꆢ럫ퟚ쿜,2005ꆶ:헽쪽폫럇헽쪽훆뛈뛔훐맺컼틽췢짌횱뷓춶뗄펰쿬ꆪꆪꆪ틔틽솦쒣탍캪믹뒡뗄쪵횤럖컶ꆷꆶ,닆쎳뺭볃ꆷ뗚12웚ꆣ슬럦,2004ꆶ:닺욷쓚럖릤:튻룶럖컶뿲볜ꆷ,놱뺩듳톧훐맺뺭볃퇐뺿훐탄쳖싛룥쾵쇐,C2004005ꆣ뫘닓량ꆢ캺뫳뾭,2004ꆶ:탂쎳틗샭싛폫췢짌퓚뮪훆퓬웳튵뗄돶뿚뻶뚨ꆷꆶ,맜샭쫀뷧ꆷ뗚1웚ꆣ엋헲,2006ꆶ:훆뛈뻠샫폫췢짌횱뷓춶ꆪꆪꆪ튻쿮믹폚훐맺뗄뺭퇩퇐뺿ꆷꆶ,닆쎳뺭볃ꆷ뗚6웚ꆣ욽탂쟇뗈,2007ꆶ:쫐뎡뮻살벼쫵쇋싰ꆪꆪꆪ췢맺횱뷓춶(FDI)뛔훐맺웳튵뗄틧돶킧펦럖컶ꆷ,놱뺩듳톧훐맺뺭볃퇐뺿훐탄쳖싛룥쾵쇐,C2007004ꆣ쯎ꆢ닱,2002ꆶ:틔샍뚯솦톰헒탍캪훷ꆪꆪꆪ컒맺췢맺횱뷓춶뗄탔훊럖컶ꆷꆶ,맺볊쎳틗ꆷ뗚10웚ꆣ쯯쿶ꆡꆢ쇵쪿폠ꆢ쯎럪쏷,2006ꆶ:믣싊뗷헻뛔췢짌횱뷓춶뗄펰쿬:믹폚샭싛뫍쪵횤뗄퇐뺿ꆷꆶ,쫽솿뺭볃벼쫵뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ뗚8웚ꆣ췵퓀욽,1999ꆶ:컒맺췢짌횱뷓춶뗄솽훖쫐뎡떼쿲샠탍럖컶ꆷꆶ,맺볊쎳틗컊쳢ꆷ뗚2웚ꆣ캺뫳뾭ꆢ뫘닓량ꆢ췵탂,2001ꆶ:췢짌퓚뮪횱뷓춶뚯믺폫쟸캻틲쯘럖컶ꆪꆪꆪ뛔쟘믊떺쫐췢짌횱뷓춶뗄쪵횤퇐뺿ꆷꆶ,뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ뗚2웚ꆣ쿄뷜뎤ꆢ샮훬,2004ꆶ:쮰쫕헾닟뛔췢맺횱뷓춶(FDI)펰쿬뗄맺췢퇐뺿ퟛ쫶ꆷꆶ,맺췢짧믡뿆톧ꆷ뗚6웚ꆣ퇮뇳,2003ꆶ:맺볊쮰쫕ꆷ,뢴떩듳톧돶냦짧ꆣ틳럯,2006ꆶ:훐맺럾컱튵샻폃췢짌횱뷓춶:쿖ힴꆢ컊쳢폫펰쿬틲쯘럖컶ꆷꆶ,쫀뷧뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ뗚1웚ꆣ헅붨뫬,2004ꆶ:춶맺쳘헷벰웤뛔뮪춶잿뛈뗄퇐뺿ꆷꆶ,쫀뷧뺭볃ꆷ뗚1웚ꆣ헅훐탣,2001ꆶ:릫쮾뇜쮰뷚쮰볞돯뮮ꆷ,훐뮪릤짌솪뫏돶냦짧ꆣ횣뒺죙,2001ꆶ:듓쮰뢺뾴췢웳튵뛔훐맺춶랽쪽뗄톡퓱ꆷꆶ,짦췢쮰컱ꆷ뗚6웚ꆣAltshuler,R.,,2003,ꆰRepatriationTaxes,RepatriationStrategiesandMultinationalFinancialPolicyꆱ,JournalofPublicꋙ2005쓪췢웳튵뗄뿷쯰쏦룟듯42196%,볻췵뷜ꆶ췢웳튵뛠쓪듳쏦믽뿷쯰뗄놳뫳:볙뿞쟮헦뇜쮰ꆷꆶ,짏몣횤좯놨ꆷ2006쓪11퓂15죕ꆣꋚ퓚놾컄럖컶뗄믹뒡짏퓙뾼싇맺쓚퓋쫤돉놾뗄듦퓚,뿉틔췆닢:훷튪돉럖캪뒹횱탍FDI뗄맺뇰FDI펦떱벯훐폚틔짮?룛ꆢ짏몣룛ꆢ쳬뷲룛ꆢ듳솬룛캪쫠얦뗄죽듳퇘몣뺭볃좦;뛸훐컷늿컼쫕뗄FDI쫆뇘틔훷튪돉럖캪쮮욽탍FDIꆢ볙췢ꆢ럾컱튵FDI뗄뇜쮰FDI캪훷ꆣ뻙샽쮵쏷:즽컷쪡2006쓪(즽컷탂컅췸2007쓪1퓂23죕)쪵볊샻폃췢잰죽캻살풴뗘쫇캬뛻뺩좺떺ꆢ훐맺쿣룛뫍쏀맺,웤훐캬뛻뺩좺떺햼쇋ퟜ뛮뗄쇹돉;붭컷쪡2006쓪(붭컷쪡뛔췢뺭볃쎳틗탅쾢훐탄췸햾)쪵볊샻폃췢잰죽캻살풴뗘쫇훐맺쿣룛ꆢ훐맺첨췥뫍캬뛻뺩좺떺,웤훐훐맺쿣룛햼쇋ퟜ뛮뗄쇹돉,뗈뗈ꆣ104
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