2004쓪9퓂쓏뺩쪦듳톧놨(짧믡뿆톧냦)Sep.,2004뗚5웚JournalofNanjingNormalUniversity(SocialScience)믵뇒헾닟뗄놾쫐뎡뒫떼믺훆뇥횾듥(쓏뺩듳톧뎤붭죽뷇훞뺭볃짧믡랢햹퇐뺿훐탄,붭쯕쓏뺩210093)햪ꆡ튪:쯦ퟅ놾쫐뎡뗄톸쯙랢햹,뒫춳뗄믵뇒헾닟뒫떼쟾뗀폐쯹쿷죵,놾쫐뎡퓚믵뇒헾닟뗄뒫떼맽돌훐랢믓ퟅ풽살풽훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ믵뇒헾닟뗄놾쫐뎡뒫떼믺훆훷튪쳥쿖퓚췐뇶뗄q킧펦ꆢ럇뛔돆탅쾢킧펦ꆢ쇷뚯탔킧펦ꆢ닆뢻킧펦뫍풴엤훃킧펦뗈,펦룃뛔뺭뗤뗄IS2LM쒣탍뷸탐탞헽,듓뛸ힼ좷랴펳놾쫐뎡뒫떼믺훆퓚뻹뫢닺돶쮮욽뻶뚨맽돌훐뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ듓쒿잰훐맺뗄쿖쪵살뾴,믵뇒헾닟뗄놾쫐뎡뒫떼믺훆뮹듦퓚ퟅ늻짙컊쳢,퇏훘펰쿬쇋믵뇒헾닟뗄쪵볊킧맻,펦룃닉좡믽벫듫쪩,훰늽췪짆컒맺놾쫐뎡뗄믵뇒헾닟뒫떼릦쓜,틔쳡룟믵뇒헾닟뗄폐킧탔ꆣ맘볼듊:믵뇒헾닟;놾쫐뎡;뒫떼믺훆훐춼럖샠뫅:ꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:Aꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:10014608(2004)05002205ꆡꆡ20쫀볍90쓪듺틔살,컒맺뗄놾쫐뎡랢햹톸싊뫍릫쮾쫕틦살펰쿬막욱쫐뎡ꆣHamburger뫍쯙ꆣ뷘횹떽2004쓪4퓂,컒맺뺳쓚짏쫐릫쮾ퟜ쫽틑Kochin랢쿖믵뇒릩룸뛔막욱쫐뎡늻뷶뻟폐볤뷓뗄듯1314볒,막쫐ퟜ횵캪45804196틚풪,웤훐쇷춨쫐펰쿬,뛸쟒뻟폐훘튪뗄뛌웚횱뷓펰쿬,늢쟒헢훖펰쿬횵14367168틚풪,춶헟뾪뮧쫽룟듯7123127췲쫇뛀솢폚믵뇒릩룸뛔폚샻싊뫍릫쮾웚췻쫕틦뗄펰쿬뮧ꋙ,놾쫐뎡퓚컒맺뗄뺭볃짺믮훐헽랢믓ퟅ풽살뗄\[3\]ꆣRigobon뫍Sack럖컶쇋쏀맺믵뇒헾닟뛔막쫐풽듳뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ놾쫐뎡뗄랢햹튲룄뇤쇋컒맺믵뇒헾뗄랴펦,뷡맻뇭쏷,믵뇒헾닟뛔막쫐늨뚯뗄랴펦쪮럖닟뗄뒫떼쟾뗀,뒫춳뗄샻싊쟾뗀뫍탅듻쟾뗀뻹폐쯹잿쇒\[4\]ꆣ듳뛠쫽쪵횤럖컶뗄뷡맻죏캪,믵뇒헾닟늻쿷죵,뛸놾쫐뎡뗄뒫떼쟾뗀퓲폺틦훘튪ꆣ캪쇋뷸뷶춨맽뛔샻싊ꆢ춨믵엲헍뫍릫쮾웚췻쫕틦뗈뗄펰쿬튻늽볓잿뫍췪짆믵뇒헾닟뗄놾쫐뎡뒫떼믺훆,쳡뛸볤뷓펰쿬놾쫐뎡,뛸쟒뮹뛔놾쫐뎡짏뗄막욱룟컒맺믵뇒헾닟뗄폐킧탔,폐뇘튪퇐뺿믵뇒헾닟춨볛룱폐ퟅ횱뷓뫍돖탸뗄펰쿬ꆣ맽놾쫐뎡펰쿬쪵쳥뺭볃뗄뻟쳥맽돌ꆣ1.믵뇒헾닟춨맽샻싊펰쿬놾쫐뎡ꆣ퓚믵뇒튻ꆢ믵뇒헾닟뛔놾쫐뎡뗄펰쿬춾뺶탨쟳늻뇤뗄잰쳡쿂,믵뇒헾닟뗄룄뇤믡춨맽룄뇤믵뇒릩룸솿뛸펰쿬샻싊쮮욽,샻싊뗄뇤뮯믡듓솽룶랽퓧퓚20쫀볍60쓪듺뻍폐뺭볃톧볒뛔믵뇒릩룸쏦펰쿬떽놾쫐뎡볛룱뗄뇤뚯ꆣ뗚튻,춨맽룄뇤믵폫막욱볛룱뗄맘쾵뷸탐쇋쪵횤퇐뺿ꆣSprinkel춨맽뇒쫐뎡뫍놾쫐뎡짏룷훖뷰죚닺욷뗄쿠뛔쫕틦싊쮮뇈뷏막욱볛룱뫍믵뇒릩펦퓶뎤싊뗄춼탎,죏캪막욱욽,틽웰뻓쏱뗄닺톡퓱탐캪ꆣ죧삩헅탔뗄믵뇒헾볛룱쫇맽좥믵뇒릩펦뇤뮯솿뗄횱뷓몯쫽\[1\]ꆣHoma닟뿉틔붵뗍쫐뎡샻싊,헢퇹뻍믡쪹막욱뗈놾쫐뎡뫍Jaffee춨맽붨솢믵뇒릩펦솿폫막욱볛룱뗄믘맩랽ꆡꆡꆡꆡ돌,랢쿖믵뇒릩룸뛔막욱볛룱뻟폐쏷쿔뗄횱뷓펰ꋙ쫽뻝살풴:훐맺횤좯볠뚽맜샭캯풱믡췸햾:.쿬
릤뻟뗄쳦듺탔닺욷뗄쫕틦싊쿂붵,쫐뎡뻍믡톡퓱룼ퟜ횮,믵뇒릩펦솿퓶볓뿉틔춨맽듌벤뺭볃퓶뎤뛸쳡뛠뗄놾쫐뎡릤뻟,듓뛸쪹뗃놾쫐뎡닺욷뗄볛룱룟죋쏇뛔막욱뗄풤웚쫕틦,듓뛸췆뚯막볛짏헇;춬짏헇ꆣ뗚뛾,샻싊ퟷ캪튻훖헾닟탅뫅뿉틔룄뇤춶쪱,퓶볓믵뇒릩펦솿,믲헟쿂뗷믹ힼ샻싊,뿉틔붵뗍헟뛔캴살뗄풤웚뛸틽웰막욱뗈닺볛룱뗄뇤뚯ꆣ횻컞럧쿕쫕틦싊,췆뚯막볛짏헇;뛸막볛짏헇쪹춶헟튪놾쫐뎡싺ퟣ죵폐킧쳵볾,뛔뺭볃ퟟ쫆뗄캴살풤믱뗃쇋룼뛠뗄춶쫕틦,믡복짙춶헟뛔럧쿕뗄퇡웚뻍믡랴펳퓚떱웚뗄닺볛룱훐ꆣ죧맻릫훚풤웚캴뛱돌뛈,듓뛸붵뗍럧쿕틧볛,뷸튻늽떼훂막욱볛룱뗄살뗄뺭볃퓋탐쟷뫃,닺볛룱뻍믡짏짽ꆣ짏헇ꆣ2.믵뇒헾닟춨맽펰쿬춨믵엲헍싊뛸펰쿬놾쫐뎡ꆣ컞싛쫇뾭뛷쮹톧엉뮹쫇믵뇒훷틥톧엉뚼죏캪뛾ꆢ믵뇒헾닟뗄놾쫐뎡뒫떼믺훆믵뇒헾닟쫇뻶뚨춨믵엲헍싊뗄튻룶훘튪틲쯘\[5\]ꆣ놾쫐뎡튪돉캪믵뇒헾닟뗄튻훖뒫떼쟾뗀,뇘컒쏇횪뗀,죧맻랢짺쇋춨믵엲헍,쪵볊짏뻍쫇뛔릫쮾탫붫믵뇒헾닟뗷헻뛔놾쫐뎡뗄펰쿬킧펦퓙뒫떼떽뗄쯹폐막좨헷쮰(릫쮾뗄막욱볛횵쫇쮰믹)ꆣ평폚쯹쪵컯뺭볃훐좥,닅쓜췪돉믵뇒헾닟뗄ퟮ훕쒿뇪ꆣ쳖폐막샻뗄헛쿖볛횵ퟜ뫍펦뗈폚웳튵뗄놾볛횵,쯹싛믵뇒헾닟죧뫎평놾쫐뎡뒫떼떽쪵컯뺭볃쇬폲뗄틔떱웚뗄춨믵엲헍붫솢벴뛔웳튵쯹폐뗄캴살막샻쇷샭싛훷튪폐틔쿂벸훖:헷쮰ꆣ틲듋,춨믵엲헍믡붵뗍릫쮾뗄쯹폐닺볛횵ꆣ1.췐뇶뗄q킧펦ꆣ췐뇶뗄q샭싛쳡릩쇋튻훖죧맻떱웚뗄춨믵엲헍뫍풤웚춨믵엲헍쮮욽짽룟,춶폐맘막욱볛룱뫍춶횧돶쿠뮥맘솪뗄샭싛,듓닺헟뻍믡퓶볓쯻쏇뗄쫕틦튪쟳ꆣ퓚웚췻쫕틦퓶볓틔뷡릹뗷헻뗄뷇뛈캪믵뇒헾닟뗄뒫떼쳡릩쇋튻룶뫜뫃뫳,죧맻릫쮾뗄막샻헾닟늻뇤,릫쮾막볛뻍믡쿂뗸ꆣ뗄럖컶쮼슷ꆣ췐뇶붫q뚨틥캪릫쮾뗄쫐뎡볛횵돽튲뻍쫇쮵,웚췻쫕틦뗄퓶볓붫평폚놾쯰쪧뛸떼훂틔놾뗄훘훃돉놾,q횵뗄룟뗍뻶뚨쇋릫쮾뗄춶뛌웚쫕틦쮮욽뗄쿂붵ꆣ헢퇹,퓚떱웚뫍캴살뗄춨믵풸췻ꆣ죧맻q횵듳폚1,릫쮾뗄쫐뎡볛횵뻍믡룟폚엲헍쮮욽랢짺뇤뮯쪱,막뚫붫믡춨맽룄뇤쯹돖막욱닺뗄훘훃돉놾,쿠뛔폚릫쮾뗄쫐뎡볛횵뛸퇔,탂뎧뗄웚췻쫕틦(놾샻뗃+막샻)살뛔믵뇒헾닟ퟷ돶랴랿뫍짨놸뗈쪵컯춶믡뇤뗃쿠뛔뇣틋ꆣ퓚헢훖쟩뿶펦,늢뷸튻늽펰쿬떽닺볛룱ꆣ쿂,릫쮾뿉춨맽랢탐뷏짙뗄막욱뛸싲떽뷏뛠뗄춶3.믵뇒헾닟춨맽펰쿬막욱볛횵뗄뻶뚨틲쯘뛸욷,헢퇹탂퓶뗄춶횧돶뻍믡퓶볓ꆣ랴횮,죴q횵펰쿬놾쫐뎡ꆣ룹뻝쫕틦뗄놾뮯풭샭,막욱볛룱킡폚1,춶뻍믡캮쯵,ퟜ닺돶(Y)붫쿂붵ꆣ평듋뿉뗈폚막욱풤웚쫕틦뗄쳹쿖횵ꆣ컒쏇틔막욱뚨볛뗄볻,믵뇒헾닟춨맽막볛(Ps)뗄뇤뮯룄뇤릫쮾뗄qꆰ룪뛙랽돌ꆱ(GordenEquation)캪샽,폐:Ps=횵,뷸뛸펰쿬떽춶(I)쮮욽,틔듋ퟷ폃폚쪵쳥뺭D0(1+g)/(i+ꛑ-g),웤훐,Ps뇭쪾쎿막막욱뗄떱볃ꆣ헢튻뒫떼믺훆뿉뇭쪾캪:MꇼꇺPsꇼꇺqꇼꇺI웚볛룱,D0뇭쪾풤웚막샻쮮욽,g쫇막샻뗄웚췻퓶ꇼꇺYꇼꆣ뎤싊,i뇭쪾컞럧쿕뗄쫐뎡샻싊쮮욽,ꛑ뇭쪾럧쿕틧2.럇뛔돆탅쾢킧펦ꆣ퓚믵뇒헾닟뒫떼뗄탅듻볛ꆣ틲듋,막욱볛룱평막샻쮮욽ꆢ막샻퓶뎤싊ꆢ컞럧쟾뗀훐,평폚탅쾢늻뛔돆뛸닺짺뗄쓦쿲톡퓱뫍뗀뗂쿕쫕틦싊뫍럧쿕틧볛뗈틲쯘뻶뚨ꆣ늢쟒,막욱볛룱럧쿕컊쳢믡붵뗍틸탐뗄듻뿮틢풸,듓뛸펰쿬떽웳튵폫풤웚쫕틦뫍막샻퓶뎤싊돉헽뇈,폫컞럧쿕샻싊뫍뗄춶횧돶,죵뮯믵뇒헾닟뗄뗷뿘킧맻ꆣ튪뷢뻶탅럧쿕틧볛돉랴뇈ꆣ튻냣살쮵,믵뇒릩펦솿폫막샻쮮듻뒫떼믺훆훐뗄헢튻럇뛔돆탅쾢컊쳢,뿉틔춨맽쳡욽뫍퓶뎤싊헽쿠맘,폫컞럧쿕쫕틦싊뫍럧쿕틧볛뢺룟웳튵뺻횵믲듻뿮떣놣욷뗄볛횵,살복짙웳튵뷨뿮쿠맘,틲듋막볛쮮욽튻냣튲폫믵뇒릩펦솿헽쿠맘ꆣ쪱뗄쓦쿲톡퓱뫍뗀뗂럧쿕ꆣ웳튵뻟폐뷏룟뗄뺻횵,믵뇒릩룸펰쿬막샻훷튪쫇춨맽펰쿬릫쮾뗄풤웚쫕틦벴틢캶ퟅ뷨뿮죋뗄듻뿮쪵볊짏폐뷏뛠뗄떣놣욷,맊쪵쿖뗄ꆣ믵뇒릩룸뛔컞럧쿕쫕틦싊뗄펰쿬쫇믵뇒릩믡복짙쓦쿲톡퓱컊쳢;뷏룟뗄웳튵뺻횵뮹틢캶ퟅ쯹펦솿뛔쫐뎡샻싊펰쿬뗄튻룶횱뷓몯쫽,믵뇒릩펦솿폐헟퓚웳튵훐춶죫쇋뷏뛠뗄막놾,막놾춶죫풽뛠,쯹뗄룄뇤늻뷶펰쿬떱웚뗄컞럧쿕쫕틦싊,뛸쟒뮹믡펰폐헟듓쫂럧쿕춶뗄틢풸튲뻍풽뗍,뷨뿮죋듓쫂럧쿬컞럧쿕쫕틦싊뗄캴살쮮욽ꆣ믵뇒릩룸뛔럧쿕틧볛쿕뷏뗍뗄춶쿮쒿뿉틔쪹듻뿮룼폐뿉쓜쫕믘,틲뛸뗄펰쿬뫜쓑볓틔솿뮯,떫럧쿕틲쯘튻냣쫇쯦ퟅ막샻뗀뗂럧쿕튲뻍붵뗍쇋ꆣ놾쫐뎡쳘뇰쫇막욱쫐뎡뗄퓶뎤싊벰컞럧쿕쫕틦싊뗄늻좷뚨탔퓶볓뛸퓶볓뗄ꆣ랢햹ꆢ막욱뗈닺볛룱뗄짏헇헽쫇떼훂웳튵뺻횵퓶ꆪ23ꆪ
볓뗄훘튪춾뺶ꆣퟜ횮,떱막볛짏헇쪱,웳튵뺻횵(V)뺭볃퓶뎤뗄쯙뛈,죧맻풴엤훃킧싊뗍,떥뒿삩헅탔뻍믡퓶볓,쪹뗃웳튵뷨뿮쪱뗄쓦쿲톡퓱뫍뗀뗂럧쿕뗄믵뇒헾닟쫇뫜쓑삭뚯뺭볃퓶뎤뗄ꆣ놾쫐뎡뗄튻복짙,틸탐듻뿮(L)쯦횮퓶볓,폚쫇웳튵뗄춶(I)룶훘튪릦쓜뻍쫇춨맽볛룱믺훆뗄ퟷ폃살룄짆풴엤횧돶퓶볓,ퟜ닺돶(Y)ퟮ훕뗃떽퓶볓ꆣ헢뻍쫇쮵막훃뗄킧싊,뷸뛸펰쿬뺭볃퓶뎤싊ꆣ컒맺쒿잰뗄놾볛쮮욽뗄짏짽춨맽잿뮯틸탐탅듻쟾뗀뛸볤뷓뗘ퟷ폃쫐뎡ퟷ캪헾뢮훷떼뗄튻훖훆뛈낲업,막볛퓋탐맬벣폚웳튵뗄춶횧돶,듓뛸ퟷ폃폚쪵쳥뺭볃ꆣ헢튻뒫퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏쳥쿖쇋헾뢮뗄헾닟좡쿲ꆣ믵뇒헾닟늻떼믺훆뿉뇭쫶캪:MꇼꇺPsꇼꇺVꇼꇺ쓦쿲톡퓱ꇽ/뷶뿉틔틽떼막쫐뗄뷰쇷쿲,뮹뿉틔듙쪹웳튵폅뮯뗀뗂럧쿕ꇽꇺLꇼꇺIꇼꇺYꇼꆣ춶뷡릹,쒼벯뷰춶쿲맺볒맄샸랢햹뗄폅쿈닺튵,3.쇷뚯탔킧펦ꆣ룹뻝쇷뚯탔킧펦뗄맛뗣,힡듓뛸쪵쿖믵뇒헾닟뗄뗷뿘쒿뇪ꆣ헢튻뒫떼맽돌뿉틔햬ꆢ웻뎵뗈쓍폃쿻럑욷뗄쇷뚯탔뷏닮,죧맻쿻럑헟벱쏨쫶캪:MꇼꇺPsꇼꇺ풴엤훃킧싊ꇼꇺ짏쫐릫쮾탨쿖뷰뛸놻웈싴뗴쓍폃욷살돯듫뷰,틗퓢쫜뷏듳돯맦쒣ꇼꇺIꇼꇺYꇼꆣ쯰쪧ꆣ뛸막욱ꆢ햮좯뗈뷰죚닺뗄쇷뚯탔좴뷏룟,튻짏쫶벸훖놾쫐뎡뒫떼믵뇒헾닟뗄믺훆듓늻춬냣쓜뷏랽뇣뗘내췪좫뗄쫐뎡볛횵붫웤췑쫖ꆣ폚쫇,닠쏦랴펳쇋믵뇒헾닟춨맽놾쫐뎡ퟷ폃폚쪵쳥뺭볃떱쿻럑헟죏캪ퟔ벺쿝죫닆컱삧뺳뗄뿉쓜탔뷏듳쪱,뗄맽돌ꆣ퓚쿖쪵뺭볃짺믮훐,평폚룷훖듭ퟛ뢴퓓뗄쯻뻍믡복짙돖폐좱랦쇷뚯탔뗄쓍폃욷,뛸퓶볓돖폐틲쯘릲춬ퟷ폃폚놾쫐뎡퓋탐,쪹뗃뚨솿뗘럖컶헢쇷뚯탔뷏잿뗄뷰죚닺ꆣ랴횮,떱쿻럑헟돖폐뗄뷰킩킧펦쫇쿠떱삧쓑뗄ꆣ떫쪵볊뺭볃퓋탐뗄뷡맻좴돤죚닺뷏뛠쪱,쯻뛔닆컱캣믺뗄뿉쓜탔풤웚믡뫜뗍,럖뗘뇭쏷놾쫐뎡뗄랢햹헽쪵쪵퓚퓚뗘뒫떼ퟅ믵뇒틲뛸뻍풸틢릺싲뷏뛠뗄쓍폃욷ꆣ떱막볛쮮욽뇤뮯헾닟뛔쪵쳥뺭볃뗄펰쿬ꆣ쪱,믡틽웰쿻럑헟닺뷡릹뗄뇤뮯ꆣ죧맻막볛짏짽,쿻럑헟뗄뷰죚닺뇈훘죽ꆢ놾쫐뎡뒫떼믵뇒헾닟뗄튻냣뻹뫢(K)뻍믡쯦횮짏짽,평폚뷰죚닺뗄쇷뚯탔뷏잿,쿻럑헟뻍믡죏캪ퟔ벺쿝죫닆럖컶:탞헽뗄IS2LM쒣탍컱삧뺳뗄뿉쓜탔붵뗍,폚쫇퓶볓뛔힡햬뗈쓍폃쿻럑ꆡꆡ럖컶닺(막욱)볛룱뇤뚯뛔뺭볃ퟜ솿뗄ퟛ뫏펰욷뗄릺싲(Cd)횧돶,듓뛸쪹뗃ퟜ닺돶(Y)퓶볓ꆣ헢쿬,펦떱퓚짏쫶컥훖킧펦뗄믹뒡짏,볓뷸닺볛룱뛔튻믵뇒헾닟뒫떼믺훆뿉틔뇭쪾캪:MꇼꇺPsꇼꇺK믵뇒릩쟳뗄펰쿬,벴춬쪱뾼싇짌욷쫐뎡뫍믵뇒쫐뎡ꇼꇺ닆컱캣믺뗄뿉쓜탔ꇽꇺCdꇼꇺYꇼꆣ뗄뻹뫢ꆣ뇊헟퓚럢뇕뺭볃뗄튻냣뻹뫢쒣탍IS2LM4.닆뢻킧펦ꆣ쒪뗏샻낲쓡뗄짺쏼훜웚쒣탍쒣탍뗄믹뒡짏,볓죫닺볛룱뗄뇤솿,뗃돶튻룶탞헽(Life2cycleMod\[6\el)죏]캪,뻓쏱뗄쿻럑횧돶쫇평뻓뗄ퟜ솿튻냣뻹뫢쒣탍ꆣ뺭뗤뗄뺲첬IS2LM쒣탍랽쏱뗄훕짺닆뢻뻶뚨뗄ꆣ훕짺닆뢻뗄튻룶훘튪ퟩ돉늿돌캪:럖뻍쫇뷰죚닆뢻,뛸막욱ꆢ햮좯뗈뷰죚닺뚼쫇뷰죚짌욷쫐뎡뻹뫢:닆뢻ꆣ떱닺볛룱짏짽쪱,뷰죚닆뢻퓶볓,퓚뇟볊쿻Y=C0+cY+I0-bi+G(c>0,b>0)럑쟣쿲늻뇤뗄쳵볾쿂,뻓쏱뗄쿻럑횧돶붫믡퓶볓,듓(1)뛸뛔쪵쳥뺭볃닺짺펰쿬ꆣ떱좻,퓝쪱탔뗄막쫐랱죙믵뇒쫐뎡뻹뫢:뛔쿻럑뗄듌벤ퟷ폃쫇폐쿞뗄,뛸뎤웚컈뚨랢햹뗄Ms=M0+kY-hi(k>0,h>0)(2)놾쫐뎡뿉틔돖탸뗘퓶볓뻓쏱뗄뷰죚닆뢻쮮욽(W)f,웤훐,C0캪ퟔ훷탔쿻럑,I0캪ퟔ훷탔춶,i캪듓뛸쪹쿻럑횧돶돖탸퓶뎤ꆣ듋췢,뎤웚컈뚨랢햹뗄샻싊쮮욽,c캪뇟볊쿻럑쟣쿲,b캪춶뗄샻싊떯탔,놾쫐뎡뮹쓜룄뇤죋쏇뗄풤웚,뷸뛸뿉쓜퓶볓뇟볊G캪헾뢮릺싲맦쒣,Ms캪믵뇒릩룸솿,M0캪ퟔ훷쿻럑쟣쿲(c)ꆣ퓚컷랽랢듯맺볒,막욱쫐뎡뇭쿖돶탔믵뇒탨쟳,k캪믵뇒탨쟳뗄쫕죫떯탔,h캪믵뇒탨뗄ꆰ닆뢻킧펦ꆱ쪮럖쏷쿔ꆣ뻝쏀솪뒢뗄튻쿮뗷닩뇭쟳뗄샻싊떯탔ꆣ죧쇮A=C0+I0+G,(2)쪽뿉룄킴쏷,뻓쏱뗄막쫐닆뢻짏짽1쏀풪,뻍믡퓶볓쿻럑3ꆪ캪:Y=A+cY-bi(3)7쏀럖,헢뛔GDP퓶뎤뗄릱쿗싊뿉듯떽119룶냙럖듓짌욷쫐뎡뾴,룹뻝짏컄뗄럖컶,닺(막욱)뗣ꆣ헢튻뒫떼믺훆쫇:MꇼꇺPsꇼꇺWfꇼ/cꇼꇺC볛룱붫춨맽췐뇶뗄q킧펦ꆢ닆뢻킧펦ꆢ쇷뚯탔킧펦뗈ꇼꇺYꇼꆣ뛔ퟜ닺돶닺짺펰쿬;듓믵뇒쫐뎡뾴,닺볛룱튲믡춨5.풴엤훃킧펦ꆣ풴엤훃뗄킧싊뿉틔펰쿬맽닆뢻킧펦ꆢ닺쳦듺킧펦뗈뛔믵뇒탨쟳닺짺펰쿬ꆣꆪ24ꆪ
죧맻폃P뇭쪾닺볛룱,v뇭쪾P뛔믵뇒탨쟳뗄펰뇪ퟷ폃킧솦쏷쿔복죵,듓뛸붵뗍쇋믵뇒헾닟뗄폐킧쿬쾵쫽,뿉틔볙뚨닺볛룱폫믵뇒탨쟳헽쿠맘,벴폐탔ꆣ놾쫐뎡뗄랢햹펰쿬믵뇒헾닟뗄폐킧탔쫇쫐뎡v>0;쇭폃u뇭쪾P뛔ퟜ닺돶Y뗄펰쿬쾵쫽,닺뺭볃랢햹맽돌훐뗄뇘좻쿖쿳,컒쏇횻폐늻뛏췪짆믵볛룱폫ퟜ닺돶Y헽쿠맘,벴u>0ꆣ퓲탞헽뫳뗄IS2뇒헾닟뗄놾쫐뎡뒫떼믺훆,닅쓜쪵쿖놾쫐뎡폫LM쒣탍캪:믵뇒헾닟횮볤뗄솼탔뮥뚯,쳡룟믵뇒헾닟뗄폐킧탔ꆣ짌욷쫐뎡뻹뫢:Y=A+cy-bi+uP(4)1.췆뷸놾쫐뎡뗄훆뛈붨짨뫍룄룯ꆣ놾쫐믵뇒쫐뎡뻹뫢:Ms=M0+kY-hi+vP(5)뎡훆뛈뗄좱쿝쫇믵뇒헾닟뒫떼늻뎩뗄짮닣듎풭틲,평(4)쪽뫍(5)쪽뿉뷢뗃:헢킩훆뛈짏뗄좱쿝떼훂막볛뗄뇤뚯퇏훘욫샫짏쫐릫Y=\[b(Ms-M0)+Ah+(hu-bv)P\]/\[h(1쮾뗄헦쪵볛횵,훂쪹믽벫뗄믵뇒헾닟횻쓜듌벤막쫐-c)+kb](6)뗄춶믺쪢탐,뛸늻쓜폐킧뗘듌벤뺭볃뗄쪵훊탔랢햹ꆣ평(6)쪽뿉횪,놾쫐뎡뗄닺볛룱뇤뚯뛔ퟜ틲듋튪얬솦ퟶ떽:뗚튻,듳솦랢햹횱뷓죚,뷸튻늽솿뺭볃닺짺헽킧펦뗄잰쳡쳵볾쫇hu-bv>0,죴웤삩듳놾쫐뎡뗄맦쒣ꆣ튻냣살쮵,횱뷓죚쯹햼뇈쯻뇤솿늻뇤,퓲폐:훘풽룟ꆢ놾쫐뎡뗄맦쒣풽듳,놾쫐뎡폫뫪맛뺭볃ꚤY=\[(hu-bv)/(h(1-c)+kb)]ꚤP(7)퓋탐뗄쿠맘탔뻍풽뷴쏜,놾쫐뎡뒫떼믵뇒헾닟뗄(7)쪽뇭쏷,죧맻놾쫐뎡뗄닺볛룱짏짽튻룶릦쓜튲뻍풽쿔훸ꆣ뗚뛾,붨솢맦랶폐탲뗄횤좯볛룱떥캻,붫믡틽웰ퟜ닺돶쳡룟[(hu-bv)/(h(1-c)+탎돉믺훆ꆣ믵뇒헾닟뺭평놾쫐뎡뛸뛔쪵쳥뺭볃닺kb)]룶떥캻;랴횮틠좻ꆣ틲듋,믵뇒헾닟퓚펰쿬떽짺펰쿬쫇춨맽펰쿬닺볛룱살쪵쿖뗄,헢뻍튪쟳닺볛룱뫳,뿉틔틽웰닺돶쮮욽뗄삩헅믲쫕쯵,헢훖믵닺볛룱늻쓜쪧헦,럱퓲뻍믡뛔믵뇒떱뻖닺짺컳떼,쿷뇒헾닟뗄놾쫐뎡뒫떼맽돌뿉틔폃춼1뇭쪾ꆣ죵믵뇒헾닟뗄뗷뿘킧맻ꆣ뗚죽,훰늽췪짆짏쫐릫쮾뗄막좨뷡릹뫍램죋훎샭뷡릹,맦랶짏쫐릫쮾뗄탐캪,늻뛏쳡룟짏쫐릫쮾뗄쯘훊,듓뛸캪놾쫐뎡돤럖랢믓믵뇒헾닟뒫떼릦쓜듲뫃볡쪵뗄캢맛믹뒡ꆣ뗚쯄,훰붥췪짆놾쫐뎡놾짭뗄뷡릹,볈튪듳솦랢햹뫍췪짆막욱쫐뎡,폖튪볓뿬랢햹햮좯쫐뎡;볈튪삩듳횤좯쫐뎡뗄붻틗맦쒣,폖튪듳솦뷸탐뷰죚뒴탂,틔쳡룟놾쫐뎡뗄퓋탐킧싊,놣횤믵뇒헾닟뒫떼믺훆뗄쮳뎩ꆣ뗚컥,룄짆뛔횤좯튵뗄볠맜,퇏룱쿞훆짏쫐릫쮾폫쒸릫쮾뗄맘솪붻틗뫍좯짌닙ퟝ막쫐ꆣ뗚쇹,헽좷냑컕뷰죚쫐뎡뗄뾪럅뷸돌,폅쿈뾪럅췢짌횱뷓춶뫍볤춼뷓죚쫐뎡,쫊쪱뾪럅놾쫐뎡뗄춶쇬폲,놾쫐1ꆡ닺볛룱늨뚯폫뻹뫢닺돶뇤뮯죧춼뎡뗄뛔췢뾪럅늻쓜닙횮맽벱ꆣ1,떱훐퇫틸탐쪵탐삩헅탔믵뇒헾닟뫳,LM쟺쿟듓LM0폒틆떽LM1,닺볛룱퓲믡짏헇2.닙ퟷ믵뇒헾닟펦맘힢뫍펰쿬뷰죚닺뗄볛,룱ꆣ퇫탐튪뗷뿘뷰죚닺볛룱,튻룶믹놾뗄잰쳡쳵떼훂IS쟺쿟듓IS0폒틆훁IS1,뻹뫢닺돶듓Y0쳡볾쫇튪ힼ좷에뛏막볛뗄뫏샭쮮욽,듓뛸닅폐뿉쓜닉룟떽Y1ꆣ쿠랴,죴쪵탐뷴쯵탔뗄믵뇒헾닟,퓚닺좡헽좷뗄뗷뿘듫쪩ꆣ떫헽죧죋쏇뛔훐맺막쫐뫏샭쫐볛룱쿂붵뫳,믡떼훂IS쟺쿟듓IS0ퟳ틆훁IS2,뻹펯싊쮮욽뗄죏쪶듳쿠뺶춥튻퇹,뛔막볛뫏샭쮮욽뗄뫢닺돶퓲쿠펦쿂붵떽Y2ꆣ죏쪶튲쫇볻죊볻훇뗄쫂쟩,뫜쓑폐튻룶튻훂뗄ꆢ릫죏쯄ꆢ췪짆놾쫐뎡뒫떼쟾뗀,쳡룟뗄뿍맛뇪ힼꆣ틲듋,퇫탐튪ힼ좷ퟷ돶에뛏뻸럇틗쫂,믵뇒헾닟폐킧탔떫헢늢늻쫇쮵퇫탐퓚헢랽쏦늻쓜폐쪲쎴ퟷ캪ꆣ쪵볊짏,떱막볛엝쒭돌뛈뫜룟믲쯵쮮퇏훘,쏷쿔욫샫릫쮾ꆡꆡ놾쫐뎡뗄톸쯙랢햹췘뿭쇋믵뇒헾닟뗄ퟷ폃랶뗄쓚퓚볛횵뫍믹놾쏦,늢틑뺭뛔뷰죚폫뺭볃퓋탐닺캧,춬쪱튲떼훂쇋믵뇒헾닟펰쿬뛔쿳뗄뛠퇹뮯뫍뒫짺쇋뷏듳뗄뢺쏦펰쿬쪱,퇫탐뮹쫇쓜릻죏횪늢닉좡떼맽돌뗄뢴퓓뮯,쪹뗃컒맺쿖탐뗄믵뇒헾닟훐뷩쒿쿠펦뗷뿘듫쪩뗄ꆣ막볛쮮욽늻뷶쫇튻룶쫽솿횸뇪,ꆪ25ꆪ
뿉틔춨맽막볛횸쫽ꆢ돉붻솿ꆢ뮻쫖싊뗈뗃떽랴펳;춬랽쏦샻싊뿉틔ퟷ캪튻훖헾닟탅뫅룄뇤춶헟뛔쪵쳥쪱튲쫇튻룶ힴ첬룅쓮,뿉틔춨맽쫐뎡죋웸ꆢ춶헟탄뺭볃뫍탩쓢뺭볃뗄캴살쫕틦풤웚,펰쿬뷰퓚늻춬첬뗈뇭쿖돶살ꆣ듓컒맺뗄떱잰쟩뿶뾴,뷰죚닺볛쫐뎡뗄쇷뚯,뷸뛸쪵쿖믵뇒헾닟쒿뇪ꆣ컒맺쒿잰뗄룱뮹늻틋돉캪믵뇒헾닟뗄뗷뿘쒿뇪,떫뿉틔붫웤ퟷ샻싊뻶뚨뮹뻟폐뷏잿뗄췢짺탔,튪붨솢틔샻싊캪훷캪뢨훺뗄볠닢횸뇪,쓉죫훐퇫틸탐닙ퟷ믵뇒헾닟뗄뗄믵뇒헾닟훐뷩쒿뇪,뻍뇘탫볓뿬샻싊쫐뎡뮯룄룯쫓튰ꆣ퇫탐펦뺡뿬붨솢폫뷰죚닺볛룱볠닢쿠맘뗄뗄늽랥ꆣ횸뇪쳥쾵,늢룹뻝쫐뎡ퟟ쿲뫍뷰죚닺볛룱뗄뇤뮯5.믵뇒헾닟릤뻟펦틔릫뾪쫐뎡닙ퟷ캪훷ꆣ릫ퟶ돶쿠펦뗄에뛏,뷸뛸쪵쪩뇘튪뗄뗷뿘ꆣ뾪쫐뎡닙ퟷ쫇훐퇫틸탐뒫춳믵뇒헾닟릤뻟뗄죽듳램3.얬솦듲춨믵뇒쫐뎡폫놾쫐뎡뗄솪쾵춨뗀ꆣ놦횮튻,튲쫇쫐뎡뺭볃맺볒ퟮ훷튪뗄뫪맛뷰죚뗷뿘믵뇒쫐뎡쫇놾쫐뎡랢햹뗄잰쳡뫍믹뒡,뛸컒맺뗄릤뻟ꆣ뷼쓪살,훐맺죋쏱틸탐룹뻝믵뇒탅듻ퟜ쳥맦믵뇒쫐뎡좴뎤웚실뫳폚놾쫐뎡뗄랢햹,틑뺭펰쿬뮮,춨맽릫뾪쫐뎡닙ퟷ놣돖믹뒡믵뇒컈뚨퓶뎤ꆣ듓떽놾쫐뎡뗄붡뾵랢햹ꆣ평폚놾쫐뎡폫믵뇒쫐뎡2003쓪4퓂22죕뾪쪼,뮹춨맽랢탐퇫탐욱뻝뗈랽횮볤좱짙폐믺뗄솪쾵,쪹뗃훐퇫틸탐뗄룷훖믵뇒헾쪽,볓듳쇋믹뒡믵뇒뗄믘쇽솦뛈ꆣ뷱뫳훐퇫틸탐펦닟릤뻟늻쓜킭뗷퓋ퟷ,뺭뎣닺짺헾닟돥춻,떼훂믵뇒룹뻝뺭볃뷰죚랢햹뗄탨튪,볌탸캪릫뾪쫐뎡닙ퟷ뒴헾닟뗄폐킧탔복죵ꆣ틲듋,컒쏇튪붨솢맦랶뗄횤좯퓬쳵볾,늻뛏췪짆릫뾪쫐뎡닙ퟷ뗄믹뒡탔붨짨,췆뷸죚쟾뗀,폐쳵볾뗘쪹틸탐폫횤좯튵ꆢ놾쫐뎡폫탅믵뇒쫐뎡뫍햮좯쫐뎡뗄랢햹,볌탸퓶볓릫뾪쫐뎡닙듻쫐뎡뷰뮥쿠죚춨,틔쳡룟뷰뗄쪹폃킧싊ꆣ뷸ퟷ뗄튻벶붻틗짌돉풱,삩듳닙ퟷ솦뛈뫍펰쿬쏦,늻뛏튻늽삩듳좯짌뷸죫춬튵닰뷨쫐뎡뗄쫽솿,췪짆막욱럡뢻릫뾪쫐뎡튵컱닙ퟷ릤뻟뗄훖샠뫍랶캧,틔퓶볓훊톺듻뿮냬램,퓊탭좯짌뷸죫틸탐볤뗄맺햮믘릺쫐릫뾪쫐뎡닙ퟷ뗷뿘믵뇒쫐뎡샻싊뗄쓜솦,늢쳡룟닙뎡ꆣ뷸튻늽럅뿭짌튵틸탐뗄뺭펪랶캧,붫뒫춳뗄듦ퟷ뗄쇩믮탔뫍폐킧탔ꆣ듻튵컱삩햹떽춶틸탐튵컱,퓚닎폫웳튵뗄볦늢훘ퟩ뫍틸탐늻솼닺뗄냾샫훘ퟩ랽쏦랢믓ퟔ벺뗄닎뾼컄쿗:폅쫆ꆣ\[1\]Sprinkel,B.,1964,MoneyandStockPrices(Homewood,4Illinois:RichardIrwin)..볓뿬샻싊쫐뎡뮯늽랥,쫊쪱붫믵뇒헾닟훐뷩쒿뇪쿲틔샻싊캪훷ꆣ20쫀볍80쓪듺틔살,쫀뷧\[2\]Homa,,,TheSupplyofMoney짏훷튪맺볒뚼뷸죫쇋뗍춨헍쪱듺,90쓪듺훐뫳웚탭andCommonStockPrices,JournalofFinance26,1045뛠맺볒뮹돶쿖쇋춨믵뷴쯵쿖쿳ꆣ놾쫐뎡뗄짮뮯랢66.햹ꆢ뺭볃폫뷰죚좫쟲뮯쪹뗃믵뇒릩펦솿쒿뇪뗄폐킧\[3\]Hambugrer,,,MoneyandStock탔훰늽붵뗍Prices:theChannelsofInfluences,JournalofFinance,듳뛠쫽맺볒뗄훐퇫틸탐럅웺쇋믵뇒릩27,23149.펦솿횸뇪,뛸춨맽좷뚨뛌웚샻싊믲춨믵엲헍싊살횴\[4\]Rgiobon,,2002,TheImpactofMone2탐믵뇒헾닟ꆣ퓚뷼쓪살뛔믵뇒헾닟훐뷩쒿뇪뗄퇐뺿taryPolicyonAssetPrices,NBERWorkingPaper,No.훐,첩샕맦퓲(TaylorpisRu\[7\le)틽]웰쇋톧쫵뷧뫍훐8794,February.퇫틸탐볒쏇뗄벫듳탋좤ꆣ룃맦퓲죏캪쏀맺뗄쪵볊뻹\[5\]Mishkin,FredericS.,2003,TheEconomicsofMoney,뫢솪냮믹뷰샻싊폫춨믵엲헍뫍뺭볃퓶뎤볤뻟폐뎤웚BankingandFinancialMarkets,6th,ed,NewYork:Addi2컈뚨뗄맘쾵sonWesley.,믵뇒떱뻖뿉틔붫쪵볊뻹뫢솪냮믹뷰샻싊ퟷ캪믵뇒헾닟훐뷩쒿뇪ꆣ첩샕맦퓲뿉틔뫜뫃뗘뫢\[6\]Modgiliani,Franco.,1971,MonetaryPolicyandCon2솿컒맺뗄믵뇒헾닟,늢캪컒맺뗄믵뇒헾닟쳡릩튻룶sumption,inConsumerSpendingandMonetaryPolicy.닎헕돟뛈,퓚샭싛짏뫍쪵볹짏뚼뛔컒맺폐훘튪뗄웴\[7\]Tyalor,JohnB.,1999,AHistoricalAnalysisofMonetary쪾,\[8\]ꆣ샻싊틲웤뻟폐벴쪱탔ꆢ뿉닢탔뫍뿉뿘탔뗄쳘Rules,UniversityofChicagoPress.뗣,쓜릻퓚쿠떱뎤쪱볤쓚놣돖뛔쪵쳥뺭볃뫍탩쓢뺭\[8\]킻욽,싞탛.첩샕맦퓲벰웤퓚훐맺믵뇒헾닟훐뗄볬퇩볃솼뫃뿉뾿뗄횸쪾탔ꆣ훐퇫틸탐튻랽쏦뿉틔춨맽샻\[J\].뺭볃퇐뺿,2002,(3).싊뗷헻살룄뇤룷훖뷰죚릤뻟뗄쿠뛔볛룱쮮욽,쇭튻(퓰죎뇠벭:컢퓶믹)(펢컄늿럖쿂뗚63튳)ꆪ26ꆪ
훁듋,뇊헟탄쒿훐뗄죽훖뷌폽톧돵늽탎돉,튲뻍햹죋,짺돉죋ꆣ틲듋,횻튪ꆰ돉죋ꆱ횮탨튪듦퓚,뷌폽쫇뷌폽톧뿉쓜럖뮯돶뗄죽훖욷룱:11듳훚뷌폽톧,톧뻍늻믡훕뷡,뷌폽톧뗄뿎돌탎첬튲붫늻뛏퇝뇤ꆢ랢쏦쿲믹뒡뷌폽쳥쾵,뛔쿳훷튪쫇좫쳥톧짺ꆢ볒뎤뫍짧햹쓋훁ퟟ쿲쿠뛔틢틥뗄췪짆ꆣ믡훐뗄뷌폽낮뫃헟,웤욷룱쫇듳훚뮯ꆢ뿆웕탔ꆢ돤싺짺믮웸쾢;21ꆰ쇙뒲ꆱ뷌폽톧,쏦쿲쪦랶뷌폽쳥쾵,뛔닎뾼컄쿗:쿳훷튪쫇쪦랶짺ꆢ퓚횰뷌쪦ꆢ뷌폽탐헾맙풱뗈뷌폽\[1\]돂맰짺.샺쪷뗄ꆰ뷌폽톧쿖쿳ꆱ춸쫓ꆪꆪꆪ뷼듺뷌폽톧쪷첽튵죋풱쯷\[M\]놱.뺩:죋쏱뷌폽돶냦짧,1998.,웤욷룱쫇튵뮯ꆢ뿆톧탔,쏜쟐솪쾵뷌폽쪵볹;31죋컄뷌폽톧,쏦쿲뷌폽뿆퇐쳥쾵,뛔쿳훷튪쫇\[2\]?뿼.뷌폽톧컄벯.ꆰ뷌폽폫뷌폽톧ꆱ뻭\[M\]놱.뺩:죋뷌폽튵퇐뺿헟ꆢ뷌폽톧뷌쪦벰쯹폐폐횾춶죫뷌폽쏱뷌폽돶냦짧,1993.톧뿆붨짨뗄잰솽훖뛔쿳,웤욷룱쫇뺫펢뮯ꆢ죋컄탔\[3\]쪩솼랽.뿎돌샭싛ꆪꆪꆪ뿎돌뗄믹뒡ꆢ풭샭폫컊쳢\[M\]놱.,맘힢떫춬쪱뎬풽뷌폽쿖쪵ꆣ틔짏죽훖뷌폽톧뿉틔폐뺩:뷌폽뿆톧돶냦짧,1996.룷ퟔ쫊틋뗄뿎돌탎첬,떫뚼붫춳튻퓚뷌폽톧뗄톧뿆\[4\]믆뢦좫.듳뿎돌싛돵첽\[J\]뿎.돌ꆤ뷌닄ꆤ뷌램,2000,(5).\[5\]솪뫏맺뷌뿆컄ퟩ횯맺볊뷌폽춳볆뻖.맺볊뷌폽뇪ힼ럖샠놾훊횮쿂,쓇뻍쫇:뷌폽뻍쫇쪹죋돉캪ꆰ죋ꆱ,뷌폽톧\[M\]놱.뺩:죋쏱뷌폽돶냦짧,1988.쓋ꆰ돉죋ꆱ횮톧,뷌폽뫍뷌폽톧뗄횼좤벴퓚ꆰ돉\[6\]쿮쿍쏷.ퟟ쿲ꆰ돉죋ꆱ횮톧\[J\]쓏.뺩쪦듳톧놨(짧믡뿆톧죋ꆱ\[6\]ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵,컞싛쫇듳훚뮯뮹쫇뺫펢뮯,컞싛냦),1998,(4).쫇쪵폃탔ힷ쟳뮹쫇뎬풽탔ힷ쟳,컒쏇뗄횼좤뚼퓚랢(퓰죎뇠벭:붯폀뮪)ThePedagogyasCurriculumformWANGLi2qin(SchoolofEducationalScience,NanjingNormalUniv.,Nanjing210097,China)Abstract:ThePedagogyhastwoforms:,:themainstreamconsumptionꆪpedagogycurriculuminteacher2trainingsystem;therefinementconstructionꆪpedagogycurriculumineducationalsciencesystem;thelatentmarketꆪ,thepedagogyinfuturemaybebrokenupintothreecharacters:thepopularpedagogy,theꆰclinicꆱ:thePedagogy;discipline;curriculumform(짏뷓뗚26튳)TheTransmissionMechanismofCapitalMarketofMonetaryPolicyBIANZhi2cun(NanjingUniversity,Nanjing210097,China)Abstract:WiththerapiddevelopmentofcapitalmarketinChina,,therearemanyproblemsinthetransmissionmecha2nismofcapitalmarketofmonetarypolicyinrealityatpresent,,:monetarypolicy;capitalmarket;transmissionmechanismꆪ63ꆪ
