ꆡ2006/11싛튵쫐뎡폫뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵뗄랢햹쇵쳬쿩햪ꆡ튪:튵쫐뎡듓붵뗍쫐뎡붻틗럑폃ꆢ듲웆쫐뎡럖룮ꆢ돶,퓚뺺헹훐믷뿥쇋뒦폚쇓쫆뗄쟸폲췢웳튵,쪵쿖쇋튵쫐뎡췆뚯튪쯘쫐뎡탎돉뗈랽쏦살췆뚯뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵뗄쯹퓚쟸폲폅쫆탐튵뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵뗄삩헅,랢믓쇋쟸캻랢햹;뛸뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵쫇튵쫐뎡랢햹뗄릩룸믹뇈뷏폅쫆,췆뚯쇋쟸폲뺭볃벰쟸폲볤뫏샭뗄럖릤뫍튵뮯뗄뒡랢햹ꆣ,뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵쫐뎡랶캧뗄삩듳,쓜듙뷸튵쫐뎡뗄랢햹,쪹튵쫐뎡뗄뺺헹믺훆뗃떽돤럖뗄랢믓,쯹틔3.닺욷튵쫐뎡뗄탎돉췆뚯쇋짺닺튪쯘튵쫐뎡뗄탎컒쏇튪킭뗷튵쫐뎡뗄랢햹폫뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵뗄랢돉,쪵쿖쇋뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵쪹폃짺닺튪쯘짏뗄맦쒣뺭볃ꆣ햹평폚ퟔ짭쪵솦폐쿞,뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵뗄랢햹쫜떽뷰ꆢ죋,살듙뷸쟸폲뺭볃뗄퓶뎤ꆣ맘볼듊:튵쫐뎡;뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵닅ꆢ벼쫵뗈룷랽쏦뗄훆풼ꆣ뛸닺욷튵쫐뎡짏뗄탨쟳춬쪱튲훐춼럖샠뫅닺짺쇋듳솿짺닺튪쯘탨쟳,춨맽웤탨쟳탅쾢뗄랴삡벰쫐뎡믺:ꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:A컄헂뇠뫅훆뗄ퟷ폃,듙쪹짺닺쇏ꆢ벼쫵ꆢ샍뚯솦뗈룷훖짺닺튪쯘뗃떽:1001-490X(2006)11-039-02쇋튻뚨돌뛈뗄벯훐,듙뷸쇋벼쫵ꆢ뷰죚ꆢ샍뚯솦뗈튪쯘짺닺ퟷꆡ헟:뫾쓏듳톧맺볊뺭볃폫쎳틗튵늩쪿짺;뫾쓏,뎤튵쫐뎡뗄탎돉ꆣ쯹틔뷨훺튵쫐뎡,쓜복짙뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡즳,410205웳튵톰헒짺닺튪쯘뗄쪱볤뫍뷰잮뮨럑,쪹뗃뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵믱뗃풭쇏뗄돉놾듳캪붵뗍,쓜믽샛랢햹쯹탨뗄뷰,톧쾰튻ꆡ튵쫐뎡랢햹폫뺺헹탍쏱짺닺ꆢ쿺쫛뫍맜샭벼쫵,랢쿖쯹탨튪뗄죋닅,춨맽럖릤킭ퟷ,쪵펪훐킡웳튵랢햹:샭싛첽쳖쿖짺닺뫍쿺쫛뗄맦쒣뮯,ퟮ훕쪵쿖뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵뗄랢햹ힳ듳ꆣꆡꆡ(튻)튵쫐뎡췆뚯뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵뗄랢햹(뛾)뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵쫇탎돉튵쫐뎡뗄릩룸믹뒡1.튵쫐뎡뗄탎돉뷚쪡쇋뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵뗄탅쾢쯑1.뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵쫐뎡랶캧뗄삩듳듙쪹쇋튵쫐뎡톰럑폃ꆢ붻틗첸에럑폃ꆢ붻틗럧쿕럑폃뗈,벴붵뗍쇋쫐뎡붻틗뗄랢햹ꆣ뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵뛔튵쫐뎡뗄탨쟳풴폚뺺헹탍럑폃ꋙꆣ쫗쿈,튵쫐뎡뗄탎돉복짙쇋탅쾢쯑톰럑폃ꆣ튵쫐쏱펪훐킡웳튵쫐뎡랶캧뗄삩듳뫍평듋뛸닺짺뗄럖릤뫍튵뮯뎡냑듳솿뗄싲헟뫍싴헟벯훐퓚쒳튻만뚨뗘뗣듓쫂붻틗믮뚯,뗄튪쟳ꆣ뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵뗄쫐뎡랶캧돊쿖돶평놾뗘떽췢웤붻틗탐쟩ퟷ캪짧믡듳쫐뎡믹놾탐쟩뗄쯵펰,믣벯쇋닺욷훊뗘퓙떽맺볊쫐뎡뗄삩듳쟷쫆ꆣ뛸퓚늻쪵탐닺좨뇤뚯쳵볾쿂,솿ꆢ릦쓜ꆢ쪽퇹냼ힰꆢ볛룱틔벰릩쟳맘쾵벰웤뿉쓜쟷쫆퓚쓚뗄쪵쿖럖릤뫍튵뮯폐삵폚쫐뎡붻틗돉놾뗄붵뗍,퓚뺺헹탍쏱룷훖쫐뎡탅쾢,늢뿬뷝ꆢힼ좷ꆢ돉놾뗍솮뗘쿲훜뇟웳튵쳡릩,캪펪훐킡웳튵붵뗍짺닺럑폃뫍붻틗럑폃뗄탨쟳삭뚯뫍헾뢮탐캪웳튵뗷헻닺욷뷡릹ꆢ뾪랢탂닺욷쳡릩솮볛뛸ힼ좷뗄탅쾢ꆣ웤췆뚯횮쿂,쫐뎡붻틗놾짭쟷쿲폚럖릤뫍튵뮯,쫐뎡ퟩ횯닺짺듎,튵쫐뎡뗄탎돉복짙쇋붻틗첸에럑폃ꆣ튵쫐뎡훐뗄싲쇋뇤룯뫍뒴탂,튵쫐뎡퓚벯쎳쫐뎡믹뒡짏돶쿖쇋쏈톿늢믱싴쮫랽뛔붻틗뛔쿳뗈탅쾢햼폐뇈뷏뛔돆,붻틗럑폃뗄돐떣튲뗃쇋춻량쏍뷸뗄랢햹ꆣ뇈뷏뛔돆,헢쳡룟쇋붻틗쮫랽뗄뮥쿠탅죎뛈,퓚훐맺뒫춳쳘폐2.듳솿뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵뗄듦퓚쪹뗃튵쫐뎡쓜돤럖뗄럇헽쪽훆뛈낲업쿂,튵쫐뎡훐뗄붻틗쮫랽뇈뷏죝틗탎돉랢믓쫐뎡뗄뺺헹믺훆ꆣ듳솿뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵뗄죫쫐,쪹뇈뷏컈뚨ꆢ돖뻃뗄틾탔웵풼맘쾵,복짙붻틗뗄첸에럑폃ꆣ퓙뗃맦랶퓋ퟷ뗄튵쫐뎡볓잿쫐뎡뺺헹뗄솦뛈,탎돉쇋냼쒪뛻듎,튵쫐뎡뗄탎돉복짙쇋붻틗럧쿕럑폃ꆣ쫐뎡훷쳥뗄뺭펪쯹쳡돶뗄ꆰ뿉뺺헹쫐뎡ꆱ,튲뻍쫇쮵,뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵쫇뎡쯹쫇뇈뷏만뚨뗄,늢쟒튻냣닉폃쇋뷏캪뇪ힼ뮯뗄붻틗뫍웳튵쫐뎡뗄훷쳥,훁뷱ꆢ뷱뫳튲뫜쓑탎돉평짙쫽벸볒웳튵슢뛏쫐튵뮯뗄뺭펪랽쪽,웤틆벰췋돶뗄믺믡돉놾뷏룟,헢폐샻폚틖뎡뗄쟩뿶,쫐뎡뺺헹믺훆쓜뗃떽쇋돤럖폐킧뗄랢믓,뷡릹탔쫐훆룷붻틗훷쳥뗄믺믡훷틥탐캪쟣쿲,쪹뗃붻틗뗄싄풼돉놾ꆢ볠뎡늻췪좫뗃떽쇋튻뚨돌뛈뗄뛴훆,ퟔ좻탔쫐뎡늻췪좫뗃떽쇋뚽돉놾ꆢ캥풼뗄뿉쓜탔뗈튻쾵쇐늻좷뚨탔럧쿕돉놾듳캪붵뗍ꆣ늿럖탞늹,평폚쫐뎡늻췪좫떼훂뗄붻틗럑폃놻듳듳붵뗍ꆣ뛸2.튵쫐뎡뗄탎돉뛔폚듲웆쟸폲볤뗄쫐뎡럖룮ꆢ킭뗷쟸벤쇒뗄쫐뎡뺺헹폖췆뚯쇋닺튵뗄짽벶ꆢ벼쫵뗄뷸늽뫍닺튵뷡폲볤뗄럖릤뻟폐훘튪ퟷ폃ꆣ퓚좫맺춳튻듳쫐뎡짐캴탎돉뗄쿖릹뗄뗷헻ꆣ쫐뎡뺺헹벤쇒돌뛈,늻떫좡뻶폚쫐뎡뇟뷧뗄삩듳,쪵쳵볾쿂,튵쫐뎡ퟷ캪뷏듳랶캧쓚뗄쟸폲쫐뎡,쫇럖즢ꆢ쇣룼훷튪쫇뷸죫쫐뎡룷뎧짌뗄닺욷훊솿ꆢ떵듎ꆢ볛룱벰쿺쫛쓜솦쯩뛸폖튵뮯뗄뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵횮볤뷸탐짧믡ꆢ벼쫵럖뗄쳡룟ꆣ늻쓑쿫쿳,벤쇒뛸폐탲뗄쫐뎡뺺헹뫍ꆰ샱냝닺욷ꆱ뗄릤뗄ퟩ횯헟,쯼뗄탎돉폐샻폚듲웆쟸폲볤뗄쫐뎡럖룮,튵쫐룼탂쯙뛈,뛔웳튵뗄뺭펪믺훆ꆢ벼쫵짨놸뫍룷샠죋닅뚼쳡돶쇋뎡쯹퓚쟸폲훐폐뺺헹폅쫆뗄뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵춨맽짌욷쫤룼룟뗄튪쟳ꆣ죧맻쮵,쫐뎡쫜닺튵뗄횧독,믱뗃쇋솿뗄퓶뎤,ꆡ39' 1994-2014 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
쓇쎴,닺튵퓚쫐뎡훐뺺헹,퓲쪵쿖쇋훊뗄량풾,뫳헟뇈잰헟룼뇭1ꆡ뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵랢햹뛔튵쫐뎡랢햹뗄펰쿬ퟷ폃볬퇩훘튪ꆣ틲뇤솿LnMV믘맩뷡맻틔짏럖컶쮵쏷,튻랽쏦,튵쫐뎡캪뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵뷢쫍뇤솿LnMV(1)LnMV(2)LnMV(3)LnMV(4)뗄랢햹쳡릩쇋뗍솮뗄쿺쫛욽첨,쫇튻룶훚뛠뗄뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵횻탨횧뢶뷏짙럑폃뻍뿉믱뗃뗄맦쒣뻞듳뗄릲쿭쪽쿺쫛Constant()()()()췸싧,춨맽튵쫐뎡췆쿺닺욷뗄뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵,뿉틔릲춬럖쿭튵쫐뎡짌욷쇷ꆢ탅쾢쇷뫍럸짤쏦맣쯹탎돉뗄펪쿺맦LnOV()()()()쒣뺭볃;쇭튻랽쏦,튵쫐뎡죧듋톸쯙랢햹폫뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡LnMA웳튵뗄랢햹맽돌쏜쟐쿠맘,뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵듦퓚뷏뛠ꆢ랢()()()햹뷏뫃뗄뗘쟸튲췹췹듦퓚ퟅ맦쒣뷏듳뗄튵쫐뎡,튵쫐뎡늻쫇죋릤훆퓬돶살뗄뛸쫇ퟔ좻짺뎤돶살뗄,좱랦뺺헹탍쏱펪()()()훐킡웳튵ퟷ캪믹뒡뗄튵쫐뎡쫇쓑틔듯떽뷏듳맦쒣튲쫇쓑틔뎤웚랱죙뗄ꆣ()Obs31313131뛾ꆡ튵쫐뎡랢햹폫뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵랢햹:쪵횤럖컶()ꆡꆡF춳볆솿(튻)쫽뻝살풴벰몯쫽뗄붨솢1.훷튪뇤솿:A.튵쫐뎡붻틗뛮ꆣ헽죧컒쏇춨뎣냑ퟷ캪뫢솿뺭볃퓶뎤뗄횸뇪튻퇹,컒쏇냑튵쫐뎡붻틗뛮ퟷ캪ꆡꆡ힢:킡삨뫅훐쫽횵쫇떥룶뷢쫍뇤솿뗄t춳볆솿ꆣ뫢솿튵쫐뎡랢햹뗄횸뇪,틲캪튵쫐뎡뗄뷡릹ꆢ맦쒣ꆢ듳킡ꆡꆡLnMV(1)ꆢLnMV(2)ꆢLnMV(3)ꆢLnMV(4)쯄룶랽돌럖뇰틔벰쫐뎡뗄랱죙믲쿴쳵뗈뗈랢햹ힴ첬,ퟮ훕뚼뿉틔맩뷡캪쫐닢쯣쇋룷룶뇤솿뗄룷훖ퟩ뫏뛔튵쫐뎡랢햹뗄펰쿬ꆣLnMV뎡붻틗뛮뗄듳킡,쯦ퟅ튵쫐뎡뗄랢햹,웤돉붻뛮튲쫇훰늽짏(1)훐,튵쫐뎡쫽솿뗄t=(),퓚듋쯄룶뷢쫍뇤솿훐짽뗄ꆣB.뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵릤튵닺횵ꆣ춬퇹뗄,컒쏇냑뺺t횵ퟮ킡,쮵쏷튵쫐뎡쫽솿ퟮ늻쿔훸,쪡좥헢튻뇤솿,쒣탍뿉헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵릤튵닺횵ퟷ캪뫢솿뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵뗄뇭쪾캪LnMV(2);퓚LnMV(2)훐,쫐뎡펪튵쏦믽뗄t=(1.랢햹횸뇪,틲캪뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵뗄쫽솿ꆢ맦쒣뚼뿉틔폃릤794993),퓚듋죽룶뷢쫍뇤솿훐t횵ퟮ킡,쮵쏷쫐뎡펪튵쏦믽ퟮ튵닺횵살쳥쿖,쯦ퟅ뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵뗄랢햹,웤쫽솿믲맦늻쿔훸,쪡좥헢튻뇤솿,쒣탍뿉뇭쪾캪LnMV(3),퓚LnMV(3)쒣쫇훰늽삩듳뗄,웤릤튵닺횵뇘뚨쫇짏짽뗄ꆣC.튵쫐뎡펪훐,DW=,뇈뷏킡,쮵쏷뇤솿횮볤듦퓚튻뚨뗄탲쇐쿠튵쏦믽ꆣ캪쇋룼뫃뗘뷢쫍튵쫐뎡뗄랢햹,럀횹틅슩뇤솿뗄맘,냑첯캻쫽쳦뮻돉펪튵쏦믽틔뫳,쒣탍뿉뇭쪾캪LnMV(4):랢짺,컒쏇틽뷸쇋폐맘튵쫐뎡랢햹쳵볾믲랢햹뮷뺳뗄쫽뻝ꆣLnMV=++쫐뎡펪튵쏦믽뿉틔듺뇭쒳룶뗘쟸쫐뎡뗄듳킡ꆣD.튵쫐뎡첯()()()(2)캻쫽ꆣ첯캻쫽뿉틔듺뇭쒳룶뗘쟸쫐뎡뗄뷡릹ꆣE.튵쫐뎡쫽R2===솿ꆣ쫐뎡쫽솿뿉틔듺뇭쒳룶뗘쟸쫐뎡뗄랢햹맦쒣ꆣ듓OLS믘맩뷡맻살뾴,LnMV(4)뗄쓢뫏폅뛈럇뎣룟,F춳2.쒣탍뫍쫽뻝볆솿뗄횵풶풶듳폚1%쿔훸탔쮮욽쿂뗄쇙뷧횵F=믹폚틔짏쳖싛,튵쫐뎡뗄랢햹폫룷뇤솿횮볤뗄맘쾵뿉(1/29)=,헢뇭쏷믘맩랽돌뗄믘맩킧맻쿔훸;뛸쟒쯹폐t춳볆솿뗄틔폃틔쿂몯쫽쪽뇭쪾:MV=f(OV,MA,MS,MQ)(1)횵튲룟폚1%쿔훸탔쮮욽쿂뗄쇙뷧횵t=(29)=,쮵MV(marketVolume)ꆪꆪꆪ쫐뎡붻틗뛮;OV(outputval2쏷뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵뗄랢햹ꆢ튵쫐뎡뗄랢햹뮷뺳뛔튵ue)ꆪꆪꆪ뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵릤튵닺횵;MA(marketarea)ꆪꆪꆪ쫐뎡뗄랢햹폐쿔훸뗄믽벫펰쿬ꆣ뇤솿LnOV뗄쾵쫽횵0.쫐뎡펪튵쏦믽;MS(marketstall)ꆪꆪꆪ쫐뎡첯캻쫽;MQ(market721766듺뇭뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵랢햹뛔튵쫐뎡랢햹뗄떯탔quantity)ꆪꆪꆪ쫐뎡쫽솿ꆣ평폚퇏룱틢틥짏뗄컒맺뺺헹탍쏱펪캪,벴뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵릤튵닺횵쎿퓶볓1%,훐킡웳튵랢햹뫍튵쫐뎡랢햹뗄쫽뻝횻폐쪮벸쓪,쯹틔놾컄튵쫐뎡붻틗뛮짏짽%;뇤솿LnMA뗄쾵쫽횵0.톡좡뷘쏦쫽뻝,냑좫맺룷쪡2004쓪뗄튵쫐뎡랢햹쫽뻝뫍뺺423449듺뇭튵쫐뎡펪튵쏦믽뛔튵쫐뎡랢햹뗄떯탔캪0.헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵뗄랢햹쫽뻝ퟷ캪퇹놾쫽뻝,뛔뺺헹탍쏱펪423449,벴튵쫐뎡펪튵쏦믽쎿퓶볓1%,튵쫐뎡붻틗뛮짏훐킡웳튵랢햹뫍튵쫐뎡랢햹뗄맘쾵뷸탐쪵횤럖컶,쯹폃쫽짽%ꆣ뻝살ퟔꆶ훐맺짌욷붻틗쫐뎡춳볆쓪본(2005)ꆷꆢꆶ훐맺훐킡웳튵랢햹쓪본(2004-2005)ꆷꆣ(뛾)쪵횤뷡맻뫍볆솿뺭볃럖컶닎뾼컄쿗:[1]횣폂뻼ꆢ풬퇇뒺뗈:ꆶ뷢뛁ꆰ쫐뎡듳쪡ꆱꆪ헣붭튵쫐뎡쿖캪뷸튻늽뾼달틔짏쯹쳖싛뗄뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵랢햹쮮쿳퇐뺿ꆷ헣붭듳톧돶냦짧,2003쓪냦,166-169튳ꆣ욽폫튵쫐뎡뗄랢햹췢늿쳵볾뛔튵쫐뎡랢햹쫇럱폐쿔훸뗄[2]샮쫷풴ꆢ훇병병:ꆶ듓튵쫐뎡뷇뛈뾴컒맺뺺헹탍쏱펪훐펰쿬틔벰맀볆뗄쾵쫽쫇럱뻟폐풤웚뗄럻뫅,컒쏇폃OLS뛔랽킡웳튵뗄뿕볤벯뻛ꆷꆢꆶ룄룯ꆷ2004쓪뗚3웚,93-96튳ꆣ돌뗄ퟔ좻뛔쫽탎쪽뷸탐맀볆ꆣ[3]훬쟚:ꆶ싛닺뗘탍튵쫐뎡훆뛈뒴탂폫뺺헹탍쏱펪훐킡웳튵솪뫏펪쿺욽첨ꆷꆢꆶ뺭볃ퟝ뫡ꆷ2004쓪뗚2웚,53-55튳ꆣ(퓰죎뇠벭:폠킡욽)ꆡ40' 1994-2014 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
