上海交通大学硕士学位论文影响企业纵向一体化绩效的战略期权价值实证研究姓名：韩昕彤申请学位级别：硕士专业：企业管理指导教师：黄丹20090101
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 햪 튪 ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯ퟷ캪웳튵뗄튻쿮훘튪뗄릫쮾닣햽싔ꎬ튻횱틔살뚼쫜떽샭싛뷧뫍쪵컱뷧뗄맘힢ꆣ듓샭싛짏뾴ꎬ틔닺튵ퟩ횯톧엉ꆢ탂훆뛈뺭볃톧엉캪듺뇭뗄뺭볃톧헟듓늻춬뷇뛈뛔헢튻컊쳢뷸탐퇐뺿ꎬ좡뗃쇋럡쮶뗄돉맻ꎬ탎돉쇋튻쾵쇐쿠맘뗄샭싛맛뗣ꎬ죏캪듓뫪맛떽캢맛뗄훮뛠틲쯘ꎬ냼삨뫪맛뺭볃뮷뺳ꆢ쫐뎡탨쟳뗄늻좷뚨탔ꆢ벼쫵뗄맘솪탔ꆢ닺튵뗄뺺헹뮷뺳ꆢ닺튵짺쏼훜웚ꆢ닺튵벯훐뛈ꆢ닺뗄폃탔뗈ꎬ뚼믡펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄햽싔탐캪뫍벨킧ꆣ 뷸죫뛾쪮튻쫀볍ꎬ웳튵쏦쇙ퟅ룼볓뇤뮯뛠뛋뗄췢늿뮷뺳ꎬ웳튵뗄햽싔톡퓱튲쏦뛔ퟅ뇈뷏듳뗄럧쿕ꆣ뒫춳뗄뺲첬햽싔맜샭샭싛틑뺭늻쓜싺ퟣ웳튵쏦뛔뚯첬뗄쓚췢늿뮷뺳쪱쯹폶떽뗄쳴햽ꆣ웳튵탨튪퓚햽싔쪵쪩훐놣돖훷뚯탔뫍쇩믮탔ꆣퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔쏦쇙ퟅ뫜뛠뗄늻좷뚨탔ꎬ룸폨쇋햽싔웚좨뗄듦퓚뿕볤ꎬ캪햽싔웚좨뗄붨솢듸살볛횵ꆣ햽싔웚좨잿뗷쇋웳튵펵폐뗄좨샻뛸럇틥컱ꆢ늻좷뚨탔듸살뗄믺믡뛸럇쇓쫆ꎬ죃웳튵퓚뛠뇤뗄뮷뺳훐놣폐톡퓱좨ꆢ훷뚯좨뫍쇩믮탔ꆣ 퓚헢퇹뗄놳뺰쿂ꎬ놾컄폃탂뗄쮼캬뫍랽램살짳쫓ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄펰쿬틲쯘ꎬ붫햽싔웚좨쮼쿫퓋폃떽ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔뗄퇐뺿훐ꎬ춨맽뛔짏쫐릫쮾뗄쪵횤퇐뺿ꎬ첽뺿퓚쪵컱훐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧폫햽싔웚좨볛횵쫇럱뻟폐쿠맘탔ꆣ 놾컄퓚닉폃쇋샭싛럖컶폫쪵횤볬퇩쿠뷡뫏뗄퇐뺿랽램ꎬ틔20룶닺튵뗄653볒짏쫐릫쮾ퟷ캪퇐뺿뛔쿳ꎬ춨맽붨솢퇏뷷뫏샭뗄볬퇩쒣탍ꎬ쾵춳뗄쪵횤볬퇩횸뇪짨볆쳥쾵ꎬ틔벰뛔퇹놾쫽뻝뗄맦랶쫕벯ꎬ볬퇩쇋쯄샠햽싔웚좨뗄볛횵폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄쿠맘탔ꆣ 쫗쿈ꎬ놾컄쾵춳뗘믘맋쇋햽싔웚좨뫍ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯샭싛뗄쿠맘컄쿗ꎬ좻뫳듓샭싛짏싛횤쇋ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔맽돌훐듦퓚뗄햽싔웚좨ꎬ럖컶쇋쯄훖햽싔웚좨듦퓚폚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔훐뗄뻟쳥탎쪽ꎬ횸돶쇋쯄샠햽싔웚좨뗄볛횵늻춬쫜떽닺튵쳘탔뗄펰쿬ꎬ뷸뛸펰쿬웳튵뗄벨킧ꎬ늢쳡돶쇋쯄룶볙짨ꆣ횮뫳퓚듋믹뒡짏ꎬ컒쏇룹뻝짏쫐릫쮾뗄닆컱쫽뻝뫍볒뛔닺튵쳘탔뗄움럖뷡맻뛔헢쯄룶볙짨뷸탐쇋볬퇩ꆣ 춨맽쪵횤퇐뺿ꎬ놾컄뗃떽뗄뷡싛쫇ꎺ뮻웚좨뫍퓶뎤웚좨헽쿲펰쿬ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧ꎬ뛸췋돶웚좨뫍퇓동웚좨폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧쎻폐쿔훸뗄쿠맘맘쾵ꆣퟮ뫳놾컄뛔쪵횤볬퇩뗄뷡맻뷸탐쇋럖컶뫍뷢쫍ꎬ늢헫뛔웳튵뗄쪵볊햽싔펦폃룸돶쇋튻킩붨틩ꆣ 맘볼듊 ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯ꎬ햽싔웚좨ꎬ늻좷뚨탔ꎬ쪵횤볬퇩
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 AN EMPIRICAL TEST OF STRATEGIC OPTIONS VALUE AFFECTING VERTICAL INTEGRATION PERFORMANCE ABSTRACT As an important corporate-level strategy, vertical integration has always been attracting much attention from both empirical and theoretical communities. From the theoretical view, economists have done a lot of research concerning this problem from different prospective. Their achievements are shown by series of related theories. A lot of factors, including macroeconomic trends, uncertainties of market demands, relevancy of technology, industry competitive environment, industry life cycle, industrial concentration and specificity of assets etc., have been considered significant on affecting vertical integration behavior and performance. In the new century, facing more changeful external environment, corporate are bearing more risks when executing strategies. Traditional static strategy management is not sufficient to handle the challenges in the dynamic internal and external environment. Corporate needs to keep initiative and flexible. The uncertainty accompanying vertical integration allows the existence of strategic options, bringing value to the establishment of strategic options. Strategic options emphasize on the rights rather than the responsibilities that a company owns; they pay more attention to the opportunities rather than disadvantages that brought by the uncertainty, With all these backgrounds, this paper is aimed at applying strategic options, which is a new concept in strategic management, to the analysis of vertical integration performance. We hope to find out the correlation between strategic options value and vertical integration performance through the empirical test of listed companies. Combining theoretical analysis and empirical study, This paper performs a research on the influence of strategic options and vertical integration performance. The empirical test is based on the sample of 653 listed companies covering 20 industries. First of all, this paper systematically reviews relevant theories about strategic
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 options and vertical integration. Then it illustrats the existence of strategic options in vertical integration, analyzes the forms of four types of options, and points out that the value of these four types of options are affected by different characteristics of industries, which affect the performance of corporate as well. It drives out four hypothesis of the influence of strategic options value on vertical integration performance. These hypothesis are separately tested through the empirical test. Bases on the analysis and research above, this paper comes to the conclusion that of all the four types of strategic options, switch options and growth options have positive influences on vertical integration performance, while quit options and defer options are not significantly correlated to vertical integration decision. In the end, this paper makes a thorough analysis and explanation of the results of the empirical study and gives some relevant suggestions to the practice of vertical . KEY WORDS Vertical Integration, Strategic Options, Uncertainty, Empirical Test
짏몣붻춨듳톧 톧캻싛컄풭뒴탔짹쏷 놾죋횣훘짹쏷ꎺ쯹돊붻뗄톧캻싛컄ꎬ쫇놾죋퓚떼쪦뗄횸떼쿂ꎬ뛀솢뷸탐퇐뺿릤ퟷ쯹좡뗃뗄돉맻ꆣ돽컄훐틑뺭힢쏷틽폃뗄쓚죝췢ꎬ놾싛컄늻냼몬죎뫎웤쯻룶죋믲벯쳥틑뺭랢뇭믲킴맽뗄ퟷ욷돉맻ꆣ뛔놾컄뗄퇐뺿ퟶ돶훘튪릱쿗뗄룶죋뫍벯쳥ꎬ뻹틑퓚컄훐틔쏷좷랽쪽뇪쏷ꆣ놾죋췪좫틢쪶떽놾짹쏷뗄램싉뷡맻평놾죋돐떣ꆣ 톧캻싛컄ퟷ헟잩쏻ꎺ몫춮 죕웚ꎺ 쓪 퓂 죕
짏몣붻춨듳톧 톧캻싛컄냦좨쪹폃쫚좨쫩 놾톧캻싛컄ퟷ헟췪좫쇋뷢톧킣폐맘놣쇴ꆢ쪹폃톧캻싛컄뗄맦뚨ꎬ춬틢톧킣놣쇴늢쿲맺볒폐맘늿쏅믲믺릹쯍붻싛컄뗄뢴펡볾뫍뗧ퟓ냦ꎬ퓊탭싛컄놻닩퓄뫍뷨퓄ꆣ놾죋쫚좨짏몣붻춨듳톧뿉틔붫놾톧캻싛컄뗄좫늿믲늿럖쓚죝뇠죫폐맘쫽뻝뿢뷸탐볬쯷ꎬ뿉틔닉폃펰펡ꆢ쯵펡믲즨쏨뗈뢴훆쫖뛎놣듦뫍믣뇠놾톧캻싛컄ꆣ 놣쏜ꇵꎬ퓚 쓪뷢쏜뫳쫊폃놾쫚좨쫩ꆣ 놾톧캻싛컄쫴폚 늻놣쏜ꇵꆣ ꎨ쟫퓚틔짏랽뿲쓚듲ꆰꇌꆱꎩ 톧캻싛컄ퟷ헟잩쏻ꎺ 몫춮 횸떼뷌쪦잩쏻ꎺ 믆 떤 죕웚ꎺ 쓪 퓂 죕 죕웚ꎺ 쓪 퓂 죕
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 뗚튻헂 탷싛 퇐뺿놳뺰 ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯ퟷ캪웳튵뗄튻쿮훘튪뗄릫쮾닣햽싔ꎬ튻횱틔살뚼쫜떽샭싛뷧뫍쪵컱뷧뗄맘힢ꆣ듓샭싛짏뾴ꎬ틔닺튵ퟩ횯톧엉ꆢ탂훆뛈뺭볃톧엉캪듺뇭뗄뺭볃톧헟듓늻춬뷇뛈뛔헢튻컊쳢뷸탐퇐뺿ꎬ좡뗃쇋럡쮶뗄돉맻ꎬ탎돉쇋튻쾵쇐쿠맘뗄샭싛맛뗣ꆣퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯쫇ퟝ쿲뺭볃ퟩ횯뗄ퟮ훘튪뗄튻훖샠탍ꎬ쯼랴펳쇋퓚쒳훖짌욷짺닺뫍쿺쫛맽돌훐뗄쿠볌룷뷗뛎횮볤뷴쏜뗄뺭볃솪쾵ꆣ웳튵쫇럱쪵쪩ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯ꎬ퓚뫎훖돌뛈짏쪵쪩ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뇘좻뛔웳튵뺭펪뫍닺튵벨킧닺짺훘듳펰쿬ꆣ쿖폐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯샭싛죏캪ꎬ듓뫪맛떽캢맛뗄훮뛠틲쯘ꎬ죧뫪맛뺭볃뮷뺳ꆢ쫐뎡탨쟳뗄늻좷뚨탔ꆢ벼쫵뗄맘솪탔ꆢ닺튵뗄뺺헹뮷뺳ꆢ닺튵짺쏼훜웚ꆢ닺튵벯훐뛈뗈ꎬ뚼믡펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄햽싔탐캪뫍벨킧ꆣ 듓쪵볹짏살뾴ꎬ쿖듺듳웳튵ꆢ듳벯췅뗄랢햹ힳ듳벸뫵뚼뺭샺쇋뫤뫤쇒쇒뗄ퟝ쿲삩헅뷗뛎ꎺ뷸죫20쫀볍20쓪듺틔살ꎬ쏀맺놬랢쇋틔ퟝ쿲늢릺캪쳘헷뗄뗚뛾듎늢릺샋뎱ꎻ20쫀볍50-70쓪듺쏀맺웻뎵훆퓬탐튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯죈뎱ꎬ돉뻍쇋뢣쳘ꆢ춨폃뗈웻뎵훆퓬짌뗄쇬떼뗘캻ꆣ좻뛸뷼킩쓪살ꎬ뒫춳뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯ퟩ횯랽쪽늻뛏쫜떽쳴햽ꎬ볓릤ퟩힰ릤튵럗럗붫풭살쓚뮯뗄럇뫋탄튵컱췢냼돶좥ꎬ돊쿖돶듲웆췪좫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯ퟩ횯ꎬ쿲ퟝ쿲킭ퟷퟩ횯뫍튵뮯ퟩ횯탎첬랢햹뗄탂쳘뗣ꎺ20쫀볍80쓪듺틔뫳ꎬ쫜죕놾웻뎵훆퓬짌뗄펰쿬ꎬ놱쏀뫍얷훞뗄웻뎵훆퓬튵돶쿖쇋튻막랴ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄쫆춷ꎻ퓚IT튵ꎬ랴튻쳥뮯뗄럧뎱튲퓚탋웰ꎺIBM웰쿈뫳붫펲엌튵컱싴룸죕솢ꎬ붫PC튵컱싴룸솪쿫ꎬ늻뛏냾샫펲볾늿럖ꎬ힢폚럾컱ꆢ죭볾쇬폲뗄탍ꎻ뻍솬튵벼쫵탔뷏잿뗄훆튩튵ꎬ튲붫뺭펪햽싔튲듓뒫춳뗄힢훘ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯쿲힢훘춻돶뫋탄뺺헹솦ꆢ췢냼뫍햽싔솪쏋뗄ퟛ뫏뾼싇ꆣퟜ뗄살쮵ꎬ뛾쪮쫀볍웳튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔돊쿖돶쿈퇯뫳틖뗄랢햹첬쫆ꆣ 뷸죫뛾쪮튻쫀볍ꎬ쯦ퟅ뿆벼ꆢ헾훎ꆢ뺭볃뗄늻뛏랢햹ꎬ웳튵쏦쇙뗄췢늿뮷뺳랢짺쇋뻞듳뗄뇤뮯ꎬ퓚튻킩풴슢뛏탍탐튵ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔폖훘탂쫜떽벫듳맘힢ꆣ샽죧맺쓚룖쳺탐튵뗄쇺춷샏듳놦룖뷼쓪살믽벫퇓짬짏쿂폎닺튵솴ꎬ쒿잰틑펵폐쇋몣췢뿳즽막좨ꆢ몣퓋뒬뛓ꆢ싫춷룛뿚ꎬ틔벰징뷡ꆢ붹뮯ꆢ솶쳺ꆢ솶룖ꆢ퓾룖뗈닺튵뮷뷚ꎬ뷸튻늽뗬뚨쇋웤룖쳺닺튵쇺춷샏듳뗄뗘캻ꆣ 떱웳튵쏦뛔뇤뮯뛠뛋뗄췢늿뮷뺳쪱ꎬ웳튵뗄햽싔톡퓱튲쏦뛔ퟅ뇈뷏듳뗄럧쿕ꆣ뒫춳뗄뺲1
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 첬햽싔맜샭샭싛틑뺭늻쓜싺ퟣ웳튵쏦뛔뚯첬뗄쓚췢늿뮷뺳쪱쯹폶떽뗄쳴햽ꎬ웳튵탨튪퓚햽싔쪵쪩훐놣돖훷뚯탔뫍쇩믮탔ꆣퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯ퟷ캪웳튵뗄튻룶릫쮾닣햽싔ꎬ쏦쇙ퟅ뫜뛠뗄늻좷뚨탔ꎬ뛸헢훖늻좷뚨탔ꎬ뻍룸폨쇋햽싔웚좨뗄듦퓚뿕볤ꎬ캪햽싔웚좨뗄붨솢듸살볛횵ꆣ 샽죧ꎬ떱웳튵뷸탐잰쿲믲뫳쿲튻쳥뮯쪱ꎬ춨뎣폐벸훖쪵쿖랽쪽ꎬ냼삨붨솢햽싔솪쏋ꆢ짨솢뫏릫쮾ꆢ좫뛮볦늢ꆢퟔ붨뗈ꎬ웤훐ꎬ붨솢햽싔솪쏋뫍짨솢뫏릫쮾솽훖랽쪽뻍뿉틔뾴ퟷ쫇햽싔웚좨ꆣ퓚췢늿뮷뺳늻좷뚨쪱ꎬ웳튵붨솢햽싔솪쏋믲헟쫇짨솢뫏릫쮾뻍쿠떱폚릺싲쇋튻룶퓶뎤웚좨ꆣ퓚헢훖쒣쪽쿂웳튵뷸탐튻뛎쪱볤뗄랢햹뫳ꎬ믱좡쇋룼뛠맘폚췢늿뮷뺳뗄탅쾢뗄춬쪱ꎬ탐튵뗄랢햹ힴ뿶뫜뫃ꎬ퓶뎤톸쯙ꎬ웳튵죏캪볓듳뛔짏폎믲헟쿂폎뗄춶ꎬ퓚닺튵솴짏뻟폐룼뛠뗘뮰폯좨뛔ퟔ짭룼폐샻ꎬ웳튵뿉틔톡퓱횴탐듋웚좨ꎬ벴믱뗃룼뛠짏쿂폎웳튵뗄막좨ꎬ짵훁좫뛮쫕릺ꎬ틔쿭쫜룼뛠탐튵퓶뎤듸살뗄쫕틦ꆣ쿠랴ꎬ죧맻웳튵룹뻝췢늿뮷뺳뗄탅쾢에뛏ꎬ탐튵뗄퓶뎤탔튻냣ꎬ볌탸뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯붫볓듳웳튵뗄뺭펪럧쿕ꎬ웳튵벯훐폚닺튵솴뗄쒳튻뮷뷚룼캪폐샻ꎬ웳튵뿉틔럅웺횴탐듋웚좨ꎬ벴놣돖쒿잰뗄ힴ첬ꎻ믲헟톡퓱볌탸뗈듽ꎬ퓚쿂튻룶쪱볤뷚뗣쪱퓙좨뫢쫇럱튪횴탐듋웚좨ꎬ헢샯쿠떱폚붨솢쇋튻룶뗈듽웚좨ꎻ믲헟탐튵쟩뿶벱뻧뛱뮯ꎬ웳튵톡퓱럅웺ퟮ돵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔ꎬ뺡맜죧듋ꎬ웳튵쯰쪧뗄튲뷶뷶쫇ퟮ돵뗄춶ꎬ쿠뇈횱뷓뷸죫뗄쯰쪧튪킡뗃뛠ꆣ 햽싔웚좨잿뗷쇋웳튵펵폐뗄좨샻뛸럇틥컱ꆢ늻좷뚨탔듸살뗄믺믡뛸럇쇓쫆ꎬ죃웳튵퓚뛠뇤뗄뮷뺳훐놣폐톡퓱좨ꆢ훷뚯좨뫍쇩믮탔ꆣ퓚뷱쳬풽살풽뛠뇤뗄햽싔뮷뺳훐ꎬ컒쏇폐뇘튪폃탂뗄쮼캬뫍랽램살짳쫓ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄펰쿬틲쯘ꎬ폈웤쫇늻좷뚨탔쯹듸살뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쫇럱폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뻟폐튻킩쿠맘탔ꆣ 퇐뺿쒿뗄폫쓚죝 퓚헢퇹뗄놳뺰쿂ꎬ뷡뫏맺쓚췢쿠맘퇐뺿돉맻ꎬ놾컄쾣췻붫햽싔웚좨쮼쿫퓋폃떽ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔뗄퇐뺿훐ꎬ춨맽뛔짏쫐릫쮾뗄쪵횤퇐뺿ꎬ첽뺿퓚쪵컱훐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧폫햽싔웚좨볛횵뗄쿠맘탔ꆣ 놾컄뗄훷튪쓚죝죧쿂ꎺ 뗚튻헂탷싛ꎬ뷩짜쇋놾컄뗄퇐뺿놳뺰ꆢ퇐뺿쒿뗄뫍쓚죝ꎬ뛔놾컄뗄퇐뺿랽램뫍쮼슷ퟶ쇋닻쫶쮵쏷ꆣ 뗚뛾헂햽싔웚좨폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯샭싛ퟛ쫶ꎬ럖솽늿럖럖뇰뛔햽싔웚좨샭싛뫍ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯샭싛뷸탐쇋컄쿗ퟛ쫶ꎬ늢뛔틑폐뗄퇐뺿뷸탐쇋움쫶ꎬ캪놾컄뫳쏦뗄샭싛닻쫶듲쿂믹뒡ꎬ놾헂튲 2
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 뗚죽헂웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵폫웳튵벨킧ꎬ싛횤쇋ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔맽돌훐듦퓚뗄햽싔웚좨ꎬ럖컶쇋쯄훖햽싔웚좨듦퓚폚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔훐뗄뻟쳥탎쪽ꎬ횸돶쇋쯄샠햽싔웚좨뗄볛횵늻춬쫜떽닺튵쳘탔뗄펰쿬ꎬ뷸뛸펰쿬웳튵뗄벨킧ꆣ춨맽샭싛뗄럖컶ꎬ놾컄쳡돶쇋쯄룶볙짨ꎬ쾣췻춨맽쪵횤퇐뺿뷸탐볬퇩ꎬ뗃떽햽싔웚좨뗄볛횵죧뫎펰쿬ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧ꆣ 뗚쯄헂햽싔웚좨볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧펰쿬뗄쪵횤볬퇩ꎬ틔컒맺20룶닺튵릲볆653볒짏쫐웳튵캪퇐뺿뛔쿳ꎬ춨맽붨솢퇏뷷뫏샭뗄볬퇩쒣탍ꎬ쾵춳뗄쪵횤볬퇩횸뇪짨볆쳥쾵ꎬ틔벰뛔퇹놾쫽뻝뗄맦랶쫕벯ꎬ볬퇩쇋쯄샠햽싔웚좨뗄볛횵폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄쿠맘탔ꆣ 뗚컥헂쪵횤볬퇩뷡맻럖컶폫ퟜ뷡ꎬ뛔짏튻헂뗄쪵횤볬퇩뷡맻뷸탐쇋샭싛뷢쫍ꎬ늢뷡뫏컒맺룷닺튵뗄쳘뗣ꎬ쳡돶쇋튻킩뻶닟붨틩ꆣ 뗚쇹헂ퟜ뷡폫햹췻ꎬ뛔좫컄뷸탐쇋ퟜ뷡ꎬ횸돶쇋놾컄뒴탂뗣ꆢ뻖쿞탔뫍뫳탸퇐뺿뗄랽쿲ꆣ 퇐뺿쮼슷폫랽램 놾컄퓚퇐뺿훐펦힢훘샭싛솪쾵쪵볊ꎬ훷튪닉좡쇋뚨탔럖컶뫍뚨솿럖컶쿠뷡뫏ꎬ샭싛럖컶뫍쪵횤볬퇩쿠뷡뫏뗄퇐뺿랽램ꆣ 샭싛럖컶뗄늿럖ꎬ뷡뫏맺쓚췢쿠맘샭싛뫍퇐뺿돉맻ꎬ뛔햽싔웚좨볛횵폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄쿠맘탔ퟶ뚨탔뗄샭싛럖컶ꎬ늢쳡돶샭싛볙짨ꆣ 쪵횤볬퇩뗄늿럖ꎬ믹폚샭싛볙짨ꎬ붨솢햽싔웚좨볛횵폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧쿠맘탔럖컶뗄볬퇩쒣탍ꎬ뛔쒣탍뗄닎쫽횸뇪ퟶ돶뫏샭짨볆ꎬ틔컒맺20룶닺튵릲볆653볒짏쫐릫쮾ퟷ캪퇐뺿뛔쿳ꎬ늢춨맽볒듲럖믱좡룷탐튵뗄닺튵쳘탔움볛ꎬ좻뫳샻폃볆쯣믺죭볾뛔웤뷸탐춳볆럖컶ꎬ퇩횤횮잰뗄샭싛볙짨ꆣ 놾컄ퟜ쳥뗄쮼슷쫇ꎺ샭싛럖컶ꎭ쳡돶볙짨ꎭ쪵횤볬퇩ꎬ뻟쳥퇐뺿쮼슷죧쿂춼ꎺ 3
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 햽싔웚좨벰ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯쿠맘샭싛ퟛ쫶 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵샭싛퇐뺿 쳡돶햽싔웚좨볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄펰쿬뗄샭싛볙 붨솢볙짨볬퇩쒣탍ꎬ짨볆볬퇩횸뇪쳥쾵 쫕벯쫽뻝ꎬ뛔볙짨뷸탐퇩횤 뛔뷡싛뷸탐럖컶 춼1-1 퇐뺿쮼슷 Figure 1-1 The Research Path of This Paper4
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 뗚뛾헂 햽싔웚좨폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯샭싛ퟛ쫶 햽싔웚좨샭싛ퟛ쫶 햽싔웚좨뗄믹놾쮼쿫 햽싔웚좨뗄몬틥쫇퓚늻좷뚨뮷뺳쿂웳튵쯹펵폐뗄톡퓱햽싔탐뚯뗄좨샻ꆣ햽싔웚좨뗄쮼쿫듓뷰죚웚좨퇝뮯뛸살ꎬ쫇붨솢퓚쪵컯웚좨믹뒡횮짏뗄ꆣ햽싔웚좨폫쪵컯웚좨뗄쮼쿫쿠춨ꎬ떫쫇폐ퟅ튻킩늻춬횮뒦ꆣퟮ훷튪뗄늻춬횮뒦퓚폚ꎬ햽싔웚좨붫쒿맢벯훐폚웳튵뗄햽싔톡퓱뫍훆뚨짏ꎬ쫇햾퓚릫쮾뗄헻쳥룟뛈살뾼싇뎤웚랢햹뗄컊쳢ꆣ뛸쪵컯웚좨룼뛠뗄쫇첽쳖릫쮾뗄쒳튻룶뻟쳥뗄쿮쒿쯹뻟폐뗄춶톡퓱좨ꎬ룼볓맘힢캢맛닣쏦ꆣ 웳튵붨솢햽싔웚좨ꎬ춨맽뢶돶튻뚨뗄돉놾ꎬ퓚폐샻뗄쳵볾쿂뿉틔횴탐햽싔웚좨믱뗃쫕틦ꎬ퓚늻샻뗄쳵볾쿂뿉틔럅웺햽싔웚좨ꎬ웤쯰쪧횻쫇붨솢햽싔웚좨쪱뢶돶뗄뷏킡돉놾ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ붨솢햽싔웚좨쯹뢶돶뗄돉놾쫇만뚨뗄ꎬ뛸믱좡뗄쫕틦샭싛짏뿉쓜쫇쇣떽컞쟮듳ꆣ 햽싔웚좨쮼쿫뷡뫏쇋웚좨뛔폚맜샭늻좷뚨탔뗄좨샻뛸럇틥컱ꆢ믺믡뛸럇쇓쫆뗄맛뗣ꎬ춬쪱폖햾퓚햽싔맜샭뗄룟뛈짳쫓웳튵쏦쇙늻좷뚨탔뮷뺳쪱펦룃닉좡뗄탐뚯ꎬ쯼뻟폐틔쿂튻킩쳘헷ꎺ 쫗쿈ꎬ햽싔웚좨ퟅ퇛폚햽싔닣룟뛈ꎬ쯼뻟폐햽싔뗄좫뻖탔ꆢ뎤풶탔ꆢ헻쳥탔ꆢ뺺헹탔ꆣ 웤듎ꎬ햽싔웚좨쏦쇙훚뛠뗄늻좷뚨탔틲쯘ꎬ틔믺믡캪떼쿲ꎬ첽쟳늻좷뚨탔쓜릻룸웳튵듸살뗄잱퓚볛횵ꎬ뛸럇ퟅ퇛폚웳튵쿖폐뗄쓜솦ꎬ쫓늻좷뚨탔캪늻샻틲쯘ꆣ헢폫뒫춳뗄믹폚뺻쿖횵뗄햽싔움볛랽램폐ퟅ뫜듳쟸뇰ꆣ 뗚죽ꎬ햽싔웚좨늻듦퓚릫뾪붻틗뗄웚좨볛룱ꆣ뷰죚웚좨듦퓚쿠펦뗄웚좨쫐뎡ꎬ춶헟뿉틔퓚쫐뎡짏틔릫욽뗄쫐뎡볛룱ퟔ평싲싴ꆣ뛸햽싔웚좨늢늻듦퓚뛔펦뗄붻틗쫐뎡ꎬ웳튵늢쎻폐틔릫욽볛룱듓쫐뎡짏릺싲햽싔웚좨ꎬ뛸쫇춨맽돵쪼햽싔탐뚯뒴퓬쇋햽싔웚좨ꎬ헢쪹뗃햽싔웚좨뗄맀횵뷏캪삧쓑ꆣ 뗚쯄ꎬ햽싔웚좨뗄횴탐쪱볤뫍횴탐볛룱늻좷뚨ꆣ뷰죚웚좨뗄횴탐쪱볤뫍횴탐볛룱튻냣춨맽뫏풼폐쏷좷맦뚨ꎬ뛸햽싔웚좨뗄횴탐웚쿞뫍횴탐볛룱쫂쿈늢늻좷뚨ꎬ쫜떽웤쯹쏦쇙뗄늻좷뚨탔뮷뺳뫍웳튵뻶닟뗄펰쿬ꆣ 뗚컥ꎬ햽싔웚좨뗄쯹쏦쇙뗄럧쿕뇈뷰죚웚좨뫍쪵컯웚좨룼볓뛠퇹뮯ꎬ헢킩럧쿕냼삨뺺헹5
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 헟뗄탐뚯ꎬ쫐뎡탨쟳뗄뇤뮯ꎬ뫪맛뺭볃뮷뺳뗄늨뚯ꎬ쯹틔ꎬ웚좨볛횵뗄늨뚯탔튲쫇뛠랽쏦뗄ꆣ 본폚햽싔춶뗄뢴퓓탔ꎬ햽싔웚좨쿠뇈뷰죚웚좨튪뢴퓓뗃뛠ꆣ닎뾼Miller & Park ꎨ2002ꎩ뗄럖컶뿉붫솽헟퓚룷룶랽쏦뗄뇈뷏ퟜ뷡캪뇭2-1쯹쪾ꎺ 뇭2-1 햽싔웚좨폫뷰죚웚좨뗄뇈뷏 Table 2-1 Comparison of Strategic Options and Financial Options 햽싔웚좨 뷰죚웚좨 웚좨뗄붻틗쫐뎡 늻듦퓚 듦퓚 늻좷뚨뗄살풴 뛠훘뗄늻좷뚨 폐쿞뗄늻좷뚨 늻췪좫쫐뎡 췪좫쫐뎡 쫐뎡쳘탔 뢴훆ퟩ뫏쓑릹퓬 뢴훆ퟩ뫏죝틗릹퓬 뇪뗄닺늻퓚쫐뎡짏붻틗뇪뗄닺 뇪뗄닺퓚뷰죚쫐뎡붻틗 탨튪샠쯆횤좯 뇪뗄닺볛룱 쓜듓쫐뎡짏횱뷓뗃떽 쫐뎡볛룱 웚좨뗄횴탐쪱볤 늻좷뚨 죝틗좷뚨 늨뚯싊 뷏쓑맀볆 뷏틗맀볆 웚좨횴탐볛룱 늻좷뚨 뫏풼맦뚨 볛횵슩쯰 쓑틔맀볆 뷏틗맀볆 웚좨뗄뛀햼탔 뎣폐럖쿭탔 뛀햼탔잿 웚좨횮볤뗄붻뮥탔 맣랺뗄붻뮥ퟷ폃 튻냣늻듦퓚붻뮥ퟷ폃 뛔햽싔웚좨뗄퇐뺿풴폚뛔늻좷뚨뮷뺳쿂웳튵햽싔뗄퇐뺿ꆣ뛸붫뷰죚웚좨뫍햽싔웚좨솬뷓웰살뗄쟅솺쫇쪵컯웚좨ꆣퟷ캪햽싔웚좨믹뒡뗄쪵컯웚좨뗄탋웰풴폚톧쫵뷧뫍쪵컯뷧뛔뒫춳춶움볛랽램뗄훃틉ꆣ뒫춳춶움볛랽램냼삨ꎺ춶믘쫕웚램ꆢ춶쫕틦싊램ꆢ쓚늿쫕틦싊램ꆢ뺻쓪횵램ꆢ뺻쿖횵램뗈ꎬ웤쪵훊뻍쫇쯹캽뗄붫웚췻쿖뷰쇷내헕럧쿕뗷헻쳹쿖싊쳹쿖뗄쳹쿖쿖뷰쇷ꎨDiscounted Cash FlowꎬDCFꎩ랽램ꆣ좻뛸ꎬ쿖쪵뗄뺭볃뮷뺳뢴퓓뛠뇤ꎬ쟒춶쫇늻좷뚨뗄ꎬ컞싛쫇캴살뗄쿖뷰쇷뮹쫇럧쿕쳹쿖싊뚼쫇늻좷뚨탔뗄ꎬ춬쪱ꎬ평폚뻸듳뛠쫽춶뚼쫇늻뿉쓦뗄ꎬ헢떼훂DCF랽램쓑틔ퟶ돶헽좷뗄춶뻶닟ꆣArrow & Fisherꎨ1974ꎩ쫗쿈쳡돶쇋쪵컯웚좨뗄쮼쿫ꎬ쯻쏇죏쪶떽퓚늻좷뚨뮷뺳쿂늻뿉쓦춶뻶닟훐퇓동춶쫇폐볛횵뗄ꎻ뛸ꆰ쪵컯웚좨ꆱꎨReal Optionꎩ튻듊퓲쫇평Myersꎨ1977ꎩퟮ퓧쳡돶뗄ꎬ쯻횸돶웳튵뛔쪵컯6
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 닺뗄춶뿉틔뾴ퟷ쫇릺싲튻룶좨샻ꎬ틔뇣퓚캴살쓜틔튻뚨볛룱좡뗃튻쿮쪵컯닺믲춶쿮죕ꎬ쯹틔쪵컯닺춶뗄볛횵뿉틔펦폃샠쯆움맀튻냣웚좨뗄랽쪽살뷸탐움맀ꎬ춬쪱틲캪웤뇪뗄캪쪵컯닺ꎬ맊붫듋샠탔훊웚좨돆캪쪵컯웚좨ꎬ뻍듋뒴퓬쇋ꆰ쪵컯웚좨ꆱꎨReal Optionsꎩ헢튻듊믣ꎬ헽쪽쳡돶쪵컯웚좨뗄룅쓮ꆣ늻좷뚨쳵볾쿂뗄돵쪼춶뿉틔쫓춬릺싲쇋튻룶뾴헇웚좨ꎬ웚좨펵폐헟틲듋펵폐쇋뗈듽캴살퓶뎤믺믡뗄좨샻ꆣ헢퇹ꎬ웳튵뻍뿉틔퓚뿘훆쿂뷧럧쿕뗄잰쳡쿂ꎬ샻폃늻좷뚨믱뗃짏뷧쫕틦ꆣ죧맻ꆰ퓶뎤믺믡ꆱ쎻폐돶쿖ꎬ웳튵뗄쿂뷧럧쿕뷶캪돵쪼춶ꎬ헢늿럖뿉틔쫓캪돁쎻돉놾ꎬ뿉틔쫓캪웚좨뗄릺싲돉놾ꎻ죧맻ꆰ퓶뎤믺믡ꆱ살쇙ꎬ웳튵뷸튻늽춶ꎬ탂뗄춶뿉틔쫓캪웚좨뗄횴탐ꎬ웚좨뗄횴탐볛룱뻍쫇웳튵뷸튻늽춶뗄뷰뛮ꆣ헢퇹ꎬ웳튵쓚듦퓚솽훖늻춬닺ꎺ튻쫇쪵컯닺ꎬ웤쫐뎡볛횵뛀솢쪮웳튵춶햽싔ꎻ뛾쫇쪵컯웚좨ꎬ쪵컯웚좨횸퓚뫏쫊쪱믺릺싲쪵컯닺뗄믺믡ꆣ싵뛻쮹쏷좷횸돶쪵컯웚좨뗄볛횵쫇믹폚쪵컯닺뗄ꎬ뻍쿱막욱웚좨쫇믹폚뇪뗄막욱튻퇹ꆣ Amram & Kulatilakaꎨ1999ꎩ횸돶쪵컯웚좨쫇냑뷰죚쫐뎡뗄맦퓲틽죫웳튵쓚늿햽싔춶뻶닟훐뗄튻훖쮼캬랽쪽ꎬ쯼쏦쿲볛횵움맀뫍햽싔뻶닟훆뚨ꎬ쓜냯훺맜샭헟샻폃쯹펵폐뗄톡퓱좨살맦뮮뫍훱샭햽싔춶ꆣ쪵컯웚좨쮼쿫뫍랽램튻뺭쳡돶ꎬ뻍뾪쪼듳솿펦폃폚쪵컯닺춶쇬폲뫍맜샭쇬폲ꎬDixit & Pidyckꎨ1996ꎩꎬ Trigeogrisꎨ1996ꎩꎬ Copeland & Antikarovꎨ2001ꎩ뻹뛔헢튻샭싛ퟶ쇋쾵춳뗄퇐뺿뫍ퟜ뷡ꆣ Carl Kesterꎨ1984ꎩ쫗듎냑웚좨쮼쿫폫햽싔맜샭솪쾵웰살ꎬ늢훷헅맜샭헟펦룃냑춶믺믡뾴돉쫇릫쮾캴살돉뎤뗄웚좨ꆣ쯻횸돶ꎬ샻쾢싊뫍늻좷뚨탔뛔웚좨볛횵펰쿬폫헛쿖볆쯣랽쿲쫇쿠랴뗄ꆣ퓚뒫춳럖컶랽램훐ꎬ룟늻좷뚨뗄쪱볤뫍샻싊뗄쳡룟붫쳡돶뺯룦늢복짙뛔뎤웚쿮쒿뗄풴럖엤ꆣ좻뛸ꎬ샻폃웚좨뗄맛뗣ꎬ뗃돶뗄붨틩좴쫇ꎬ헢헽쫇춶뗄쪱뫲ꎬ틲캪쯼캪웳튵쫊펦캴살쫂볾늢쪹볛횵ퟮ듳뮯쳡릩쇋ퟮ뫃뗄믺믡ꆣ McDonald 뫍Siegel(1986)폃쪵컯웚좨뗄랽램럖컶쇋퇓동춶뗄볛횵ꆣ쯦뫳Dixit 폫Pindyckꎨ1996ꎩ뷸튻늽랢햹쇋퓚웚좨맛뗣쿂뾴듽춶폫웳튵햽싔뗄솪쾵ꎬ훷헅닉폃웚좨맛뗣뛔폚쫔춼퓶듳놾뗄릫쮾뻟폐햽싔뗄훘튪탔ꎬ횸돶뷰죚쫐뎡뛔폚춶뒴퓬웚좨뗄웳튵뇈횴탐쓇킩웚좨뗄웳튵뢳폨룼룟볛횵ꆣ Timothy A. Luehrmanꎨ1988ꎩ냑햽싔뾴돉튻쾵쇐뗄웚좨ퟩ뫏ꎬ늢쳡돶쇋컷뫬쫁뮨풰뻘헳쒣탍ꎬ퓋폃춼탎뛔뛠룶웚좨뷸탐맜샭ꆣ룃뻘헳뿉틔룹뻝웚좨쯹뒦뗄캻훃닉좡쿠펦뗄탐뚯ꎬ죧춶ꎬ럅웺ꎬ쫕룮뗈뗈ꆣ Kogutꎨ2001ꎩ튲죏캪쪵컯웚좨샭싛폫맘힢웳튵죧뫎돉뎤뗄햽싔맜샭샭싛뻟폐뮥늹탔ꎬ햽싔맜샭쇬폲쫇쪵컯웚좨샭싛뷸튻늽췘햹뗄탂헳뗘ꎬ튲벴쫇붫웚좨쮼쿫퓋폃떽햽싔맜샭쇬7
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 폲ꆣ 햽싔웚좨폫뒫춳햽싔뻶닟랽램뗄뇈뷏 뒫춳뗄햽싔춶뻶닟랽램튻냣럖캪뺲첬럖컶랽램(늻뾼싇뷰뗄쪱볤볛횵)폫뚯첬럖컶랽램(뾼싇뷰뗄쪱볤볛횵)ꆣ 햽싔춶뻶닟뗄뺲첬럖컶랽램쫇내헕횧돶ꆢ쫕죫ꆢ샻죳뫍뷰햼폃ꆢ훜뗈랽쏦뗄뒫춳믡볆맛쓮ꎬ틔웳튵햽싔춶뗄뺭볃킧틦뷸탐움볛폫럖컶뗄랽램ꎬ틲뛸폖돆캪춶뻶닟뗄믡볆랽램ꆣ뺲첬럖컶랽램훷튪폐믘쫕웚램ꆢ춶쫕틦싊램뗈ꆣ내헕뒫춳뗄믡볆맛쓮ꎬ틔믵뇒캪춳튻돟뛈볆솿뗄뷰뛮쫕죫폫횧돶ꎬ늻싛랢짺퓚뫎쪱ꎬ웤뺭볃볛횵쫇쿠춬뗄ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ쿖퓚랢짺뗄뷰횧돶뫍뗦뢶뷰뿉틔폃죴룉쓪뫳좡뗃뗄쫕죫살횱뷓폨틔늹뎥ꆣ죧맻솽헟뗄쫽뛮쿠뗈ꎬ뻍죏캪늢컞죎뫎쯰틦ꎺ죴좡뗃뗄쫕죫듳폚맽좥뗄횧돶ꎬ웤뎬뛮늿럖뻍놻죏캪쫇샻죳ꎻ랴횮ꎬ뻍죏캪쫇랢짺쇋뿷쯰ꆣ틲듋ꎬ내헕뒫춳믡볆맛쓮살움볛뫍럖컶햽싔춶뗄뺭볃킧틦쪱ꎬ늻탨튪뾼싇쿖뷰쇷죫폫쇷돶뗄쪱볤탔ꆣ평듋뿉볻ꎬ햽싔춶뻶닟뗄뺲첬럖컶랽램쪵볊짏쫇붫닆컱믡볆훐맘폚쯰틦볆쯣뗄풭샭폫랽램펦폃폚햽싔춶뻶닟럖컶훐ꎬ퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏닠훘폚뛔햽싔춶뇤쿖탔뗄욫뫃ꎬ뛸럇룹뻝햽싔춶뗄헻쳥킧틦살움볛뫍럖컶햽싔춶랽낸ꆣ캴뾼싇쿖뷰쇷뗄쪱볤볛횵ꆣ 햽싔춶뻶닟뗄뚯첬럖컶랽램쫇룹뻝믵뇒쪱볤볛횵뗄풭샭폫랽램ꎬ붫햽싔춶쿮쒿늻춬쪱웚뗄쿖뷰쇷죫폫쇷돶내쒳튻뿉뇈믹뒡뮻쯣돉뿉뇈뗄솿ꎬ뻝틔움볛폫럖컶햽싔춶킧틦뗄랽램ꆣ틲캪햽싔춶뻶닟뗄뚯첬럖컶랽램뾼싇쇋믵뇒뗄쪱볤볛횵헢튻훘튪틲쯘ꎬ쯹틔폫뺲첬럖컶랽램쿠뇈ꎬ룼뿍맛ꆢ룼뺫좷ꆣ뚯첬럖컶랽램튻냣냼삨뺻쿖횵램(NPV)ꆢ쏴룐탔럖컶ꆢ뻶닟쫷램폫쏉쳘뾨싞쒣쓢랽램뗈ꆣ 헢킩뒫춳움볛랽램퓚뛌웚ꆢ뗍럧쿕ꆢ뷏뗍늻좷뚨탔쟩탎쿂폐웤뛀떽횮뒦ꎬ퓚쪵볊펦폃훐틠뫜맣랺ꆣ떫쫇쯦ퟅ쫀뷧뺭볃ꆢ뿆벼뗄량쯙랢햹ꎬ놾햽싔춶뗄럧쿕뫍늻좷뚨탔듳듳퓶볓ꎬ뒫춳뗄햽싔춶럖컶릤뻟틑뺭늻쓜싺ퟣ죋쏇뗄탨튪ꆣ샽죧퓚뒫춳움볛랽램훐햼뻝훘튪뗘캻뗄DCF램폐뷏듳뗄뻖쿞탔ꆣ쫗쿈ꎬ늻쓜쳥쿖햽싔춶쯹쓜뒴퓬뗄캴살믺믡볛횵ꆣDCF램쪵볊짏뾼싇뗄뷶쫇뷰뗄쪱볤볛횵컊쳢ꎬ쿱R&D헢훖춶뗄횱뷓돉맻늢늻뇭쿖퓚웳튵뺭펪뷰쇷짏쏦ꎬ뛸쫇퓚폚쓜캪웳튵붫살듸살뷰쇷뗄탂닺욷믲탂벼쫵뗄쿮쒿ꎬ폃DCF램움맀쿔좻믡뗍맀웤볛횵ꆣ웤듎ꎬ늻쓜헽좷랴펳햽싔춶믮뚯쯹뻟폐뗄늻좷뚨탔ꆣ펦폃DCF램뷸탐햽싔춶럖컶쪱ꎬ뇘뚨튪톡퓱튻룶쳹쿖싊ꆣ춨뎣톡뷏듳뗄횵ꎬ틔랴펳웤늻좷뚨탔ꎬ헢뻍믡퓬돉탭뛠잱퓚햽싔볛횵뗄쿮쒿뗃늻떽펦폐뗄훘쫓ꎬ듓뛸떼훂햽싔춶늻ퟣꆣ죧맻닉폃뗍쳹쿖싊뗄8
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 랽램폖죝틗쪹뗃햽싔춶춶죫맽룟ꆣퟮ뫳ꎬDCF램붫햽싔춶쿮쒿뾴돉쫇뺲첬뗄뫍튻듎탔뗄ꎬ뛸쪵볊짏쯦ퟅ쫐뎡틲쯘쳵볾뗄뇤뮯ꎬ떱쒳킩늻좷뚨틲쯘돉캪좷뚨탔틲쯘쪱ꎬ뻶닟헟믡ퟶ돶췆동짺닺뺭펪ꆢ삩듳믲쯵킡짺닺뺭펪맦쒣뗈뻶닟ꎬ뛸DCF램쫇컞램랴펳헢킩틲쯘뗄ꆣ 춬퇹쏴룐탔럖컶ꆢ럧쿕탔럖컶ꆢ쏉쳘뾨싥쒣쓢램뫍뻶닟쫷럖컶뗈랽램튲듦퓚ퟅ뛔럧쿕뫍늻좷뚨탔쓑틔뛈솿뗄컊쳢ꆣ뇈죧ꎬ쏴룐탔럖컶횻럖컶튻룶뇤솿ꎬ쯸뚨웤쯼뇤솿틔쟳듋뇤솿뛔쿮쒿뗄쏴룐쾵쫽뗄ퟶ램폐ퟅ웤쓚퓚뗄뻖쿞ꎺ쯼뫶싔쇋뷏룟늻좷뚨탔쳵볾쿂쿮쒿뗄늻춬쪱웚폐탭뛠늻춬뗄훷튪펰쿬뇤솿ꆢ춬튻뇤솿퓚쿮쒿뗄늻춬쪱웚웤펰쿬ퟷ폃튲늻쿠춬틔벰탭뛠뇤솿튻웰뇤뮯쪱믡폐쿠뮥펰쿬뫍쿠뮥ퟷ폃뗈컊쳢ꆣ평폚쎻폐뾼싇헢킩틲쯘ꎬ뇘붫쪹럖컶뷡맻폫쪵볊쟩뿶폐뷏듳닮틬ꆣ쇭췢퓚럧쿕탔럖컶훐ꎬ쯤좻폐럧쿕뗄쿮쒿뗄쳹쿖싊펦룟폚튻냣쿮쒿쫇뿉뷓쫜뗄룅쓮ꎬ떫쫇ꎬ쪲쎴퇹뗄럧쿕돌뛈쳹쿖싊펦퓶볓뛠짙ꎿ헢퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏쫇훷맛커뛏뗄ꎻ평폚럧쿕쿮쒿뗄쳹쿖싊퓶볓ꎬ쪹캴살쫕틦뗄쳹쿖횵듳캪붵뗍ꆣ쿔좻ꎬ죴럧쿕쳹쿖싊뗷헻늻떱ꎬ붫쪧좥쿮쒿뗄햽싔춶믺믡ꆣ 듋췢ꎬ뒫춳뗄럖컶릤뻟퓚뫢솿햽싔룸웳튵듸살뗄볛횵쪱췹췹횻뾴떽늻좷뚨탔룸웳튵듸살뗄뢺쏦펰쿬ꎬ뛸뫶싔쇋틾님퓚늻좷뚨탔훐뗄잱퓚볛횵ꎬ웤만폐뗄욫볻뿉쓜떼훂쿮쒿볛횵놻뗍맀ꎬ뻶닟헟ퟶ돶듭컳뗄뻶닟ꆣ웚좨쮼쿫퓚뫢솿햽싔볛횵쪱뷢뻶쇋헢룶컊쳢ꎬ쯼붫늻좷뚨탔뗄잱퓚볛횵볓틔뾼싇ꎬ쪹뗃뻶닟헟쓜릻퓋폃룼볓뎤풶좫쏦쾵춳뗄퇛맢햾퓚튻룶룼맣삫뗄욽첨짏살뫢솿쿖퓚뗄햽싔뻶뚨ꆣ 횱맛살뾴ꎬ튻룶늻뿉쓦뗄햽싔춶믺믡샠쯆폚뷰죚뾴헇웚좨ꎬ벴뛔폚튻쿮늻뿉쓦햽싔춶ꎬ쿮쒿볛횵살ퟔ폚쯼쯹닺짺뗄쿖뷰쇷뗄뺻쿖횵ꎬ떱잰뗄햽싔춶뿉틔쫓캪틔풤쿈짨뚨뗄횴탐볛룱릺싲쇋튻훖볛횵늻좷뚨뗄닺ꎬ햽싔춶틽웰뗄돁쎻돉놾뿉쫓캪웚좨횴탐볛룱ꎬ룃햽싔춶탐캪뿉쫓캪쫇웚좨뗄횴탐ꆣ헢쫇햽싔웚좨훐ퟮ웕뇩뗄튻훖샠탍ꎺ뗈듽탍햽싔춶웚좨ꆣ쪵컯웚좨뗄믹놾쮼쿫헽쫇퓚폚틔웚좨뗄쮼캬살뾼싇춶컊쳢ꎬ벴ꎺ퓚쏦쇙늻좷뚨탔쫐뎡쳵볾뗄햽싔춶훐ꎬ뫎쪱춶ꎿ퓵퇹춶ꎿ춶뛠짙ꎿ헢킩뚼쫇뿉틔톡퓱뗄ꎬ늢쟒헢킩톡퓱좨샻뚼쫇폐볛횵뗄ꎬ뛸튻떩ퟶ돶쿠펦뗄춶뻶닟뻍틢캶ퟅ횴탐ꎨ쿻쏰ꎩ쇋쿠펦뗄웚좨ꆣ쪵컯웚좨볛횵쳥쿖뗄뻍쫇춶쇩믮탔뗄볛횵ꎬ헢튻볛횵잡잡쫇춶뻶닟뗄믺믡돉놾ꆣ쯹틔ꎬ듓쪵컯웚좨뗄뷇뛈살뾴ꎬ춶뻶닟쪱돽뾼싇횱뷓돉놾췢ꎬ뮹펦뾼싇믺믡돉놾ꎬ뒫춳뺻쿖횵램틲듋뿉틔룄뷸캪ꎺ 햽싔춶볛횵ꎽ뺻쿖횵ꎫ햽싔웚좨볛횵 퓚쿂뇭훐ꎬ뇈뷏쇋뒫춳쿖뷰쇷헛쿖램뗄볙짨좱쿝뫍폫횮뛔펦뗄햽싔웚좨쮼쿫뗄룄뷸냬램ꆣ 9
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 뇭2-2 쿖뷰쇷헛쿖램폫햽싔웚좨쮼쿫뇈뷏 Table 2-2 Comparison of DCF and Strategic Options DCF볙짨좱쿝 햽싔웚좨쮼쿫뗄룄뷸 쿖퓚솢벴ퟶ돶뻶닟쟒캴살쿖뷰쇷뿉늢럇쯹폐뻶닟뚼튪솢벴ퟶ돶ꎬ폐킩뻶닟뿉퇓동떽늻좷뚨풤닢뿉솿뮯 탔복킡뫳ꎬ쟒캴살뷡맻뻟폐늻좷뚨탔뫍뿉뇤탔 햽싔웚좨ퟅ퇛폚햽싔닣룟뛈ꎬ뻟폐좫뻖탔ꎬ춨뎣냼몬튻쿮쒿놻맂솢뗘럖컶 쾵쇐쿠뮥솪쾵뗄웚좨톡퓱ꎬ쫇웚좨뗄웚좨ꎬ뷼쯆폚랺몯ꎨퟔ뇤솿쫇몯쫽뗄몯쫽ꎩ뗄룅쓮 햽싔웚좨잿뗷퓚늻좷뚨탔뮷뺳훐춨맽붨솢웚좨훷뚯맜샭놻뚯맜샭춶쿮쒿 늻좷뚨탔 럧쿕풽듳헛쿟싊풽듳ꎬ퓲쿮쒿볛횵햽싔웚좨쮼쿫춬쪱뾼싇럧쿕듸살뗄믺믡폫돉놾ꎬ붫웤헽풽킡ꎬ횻뾼싇럧쿕뗄뢺쏦펰쿬 랴쏦펰쿬죚죫뻶닟맽돌 햽싔웚좨뗄럖샠 춶쇩믮탔뗄룷훖탎쪽뛔펦ퟅ늻춬뗄쪵컯웚좨샠탍ꎬ듳훂뿉럖캪ꎺ췆동ꆢ럅웺ꆢ뮻ꆢ삩헅ꆢ쫕쯵ꆢ퓶뎤뗈뗈ꎬ볲튪쮵쏷죧쿂뇭쯹쪾ꆣ 뇭 2-3쪵컯웚좨뗄샠탍 Table 2-3 Types of Strategic Options 웚좨샠탍 믹놾몬틥 듺뇭탔퇐뺿컄쿗 Myersꎨ1977ꎩꆢKesterꎨ1984ꎩꆢ돵쪼춶쫇튻쾵쇐뫳탸Newton&Pearsonꎨ1994ꎩꆢPennings&Lint쿠맘춶쿮쒿뗄쿈뻶쳵퓶뎤웚좨 ꎨ1997ꎩꆢLint&Penningsꎨ1998ꎩꆢ볾ꎬ뒴퓬쇋웳튵캴살뗄Kulatilaka&Perottiꎨ1998ꎩꆢHerath&Park돉뎤믺믡 ꎨ1999ꎩ Titmanꎨ1985ꎩꆢMcDonald & Siegeꎨl1986ꎩꆢTrigeorgis & Masonꎨ1987ꎩꆢPaddockꎬ 춶헟폐좨췆동뛔쿮쒿Siegeland & Smithꎨ1988ꎩꆢPindyck ꎨ1991ꎩꆢ퇓동ꎨ뗈듽ꎩ웚좨 뗄춶ꎬ뗈듽룼볓폐샻Ingersoll& Rossꎨ1992ꎩꆢFarzinꎬ뗄춶쪱믺돶쿖 Huisman&Kortꎨ1998ꎩꆢLuehrmanꎨ1997ꎬ1998ꎩ 죧맻쫐뎡탨쟳랢짺뇤Margrabeꎨ1978ꎩꆢBaldwin&Ruback뮯ꎬ쿮쒿돖폐헟뿉틔퓚ꎨ1986ꎩꆢKensingerꎨ1987ꎩꆢ뛠훖뻶닟횮볤뷸탐뮻Kulatilaka&Marcusꎨ1992ꎩꆢ 뮻ꎨ죡탔웚좨ꎩ ꎨ뿉틔춬퇹춶죫닺돶늻Kulatilaka&Trigeogisꎨ1994ꎩꆢEdleson& 춬ꎻ튲뿉틔늻춬춶죫닺Reinhardtꎨ1995ꎩꆢChildsꎬ돶쿠춬ꎩ Riddiough&Triantisꎨ1996ꎩ 죧맻쫐뎡탐쟩퇏훘쮥Dixitꎨ1989ꎩꆢMyers&Majdꎨ1990ꎩꆢ췋돶ꎨ럅웺ꎩ웚좨 췋ꎬ뿉틔럅웺춶ꎬ돶Berger&Swaryꎨ1996ꎩꆢAlvarezꎨ1999ꎩꆢ10
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 쫛닺 Bebchukꎨ20ꎩꆢBebckukꎨ2000ꎩꆢPennings&Lintꎨ2000ꎩ 죧맻쫐뎡탐쟩뫃ꎬ웳튵McDonald&Siegelꎨ1985ꎩꆢ룄뇤춶맦쒣ꎨ삩삩듳짺닺맦쒣ꎻ랴횮ꎬTrigeorgis&Masonꎨ1987ꎩꆢKulatilaka헅ꆢ쫕쯵ꎩ춶웚뿉틔쫕쯵춶맦쒣ꎻ뮹ꎨ1988ꎩꆢPindyckꎨ1988ꎩꆢKogutꎨ1991ꎩꆢ좨 뿉틔퓝춣짺닺ꎬ듽탐쟩Mauer&Triantisꎨ1994ꎩꆢKamradꎨ1995ꎩ 뫃쪱퓙짺닺 럖뷗뛎춶ꎬ룷뷗뛎뚼Hodder&Riggsꎨ1985ꎩꆢMajd&Pindyck톧쾰ꎨ뛠뷗뛎춶뒴퓬쇋웚좨ꎬ죧맻훐춾ꎨ1987ꎩꆢCarrꎨ1988ꎩꆢTrigeorgisꎨ1991ꎬꎩ웚좨 랢쿖춶쫇늻뺭볃뗄ꎬ1993aꎩꆢBarIhan&Strangeꎨ1998ꎩ 웳튵솢벴뿉틔럅웺춶 쿖쪵쿮쒿뺭뎣냼몬뛠훖웚좨ꎬ떫늢럇웚좨볛횵Brenan&Schwartzꎨ1985ꎩꆢTrigeogis뛠웚좨쿠뮥ퟷ폃 뗄볲떥쿠볓ꎬ쯻쏇쿠뮥ꎨ1993bꎩꆢLuehrmanꎨ1998bꎩꆢRossꎨ1998ꎩ ퟷ폃폫펰쿬 룹뻝햽싔웚좨뗄틢춼ꎬ닎헕Trigeogisꎨ1996ꎩꎬMartha Amram 뫍 Nalin Kulatilakaꎨ2001ꎩ 뗈죋뛔쪵컯웚좨뗄럖샠ꎬ놾컄훷튪벯훐폚퇐뺿쯄샠햽싔웚좨ꎺ뮻웚좨ꆢ췋돶웚좨ꆢ퇓동웚좨뫍퓶뎤웚좨ꆣ 뮻웚좨쫇횸퓚췢늿뮷뺳랢짺뻧쇒뇤뮯쪱ꎬ웳튵펵폐훷뚯좨룄뇤햽싔탐뚯뗄좨샻ꆣ헢뻍튪쟳웳튵퓚훆뚨햽싔쪱놣돖튻뚨뗄쇩믮탔ꎬ벴힢훘햽싔죡탔뗄붨솢ꆣ웳튵퓚햽싔쪵쪩뗄맽돌훐뫜뿉쓜폶떽틢쿫늻떽뗄춻랢쫂볾떼훂웳튵뇘탫뛔햽싔뷸탐뗷헻ꎬ뮻웚좨뗄볛횵뻍퓚폚쯼뢳폨쇋웳튵뷸탐햽싔뗷헻뗄좨샻폫쇩믮탔ꆣ웳튵펦룃좷놣퓚햽싔뮷뺳랢짺뇤뮯쪱ꎬ늻놻쯸뚨퓚쿈잰훆뚨뗄햽싔훐쎻폐믘탽뗄폠뗘ꆣ웳튵쏦뛔뛠뇤뗄뮷뺳뿉쇩믮뗘룄뇤짺닺춶죫폫닺돶랽쪽뫍쿺쫛쟾뗀뗈ꎬ틔싺ퟣ늻뛏뇤뮯뗄쫐뎡탨쟳ꆣ뮻웚좨춨뎣퓚햽싔횴탐돵웚춨맽웳튵쓚늿믲췢늿튻뚨뗄웵풼낲업붨솢ꎬ쯼늻뷶쫜웳튵ퟔ짭뗄쓜솦풴뗄쿞훆ꎬ룼뫍웳튵쯹퓚닺튵뗄닺튵쳘탔쏜쟐쿠맘ꆣ 췋돶웚좨쫇횸퓚햽싔뮷뺳짐캴쏷좷뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ웳튵춨맽튻뚨뗄낲업늿쫰캪ퟔ벺놣쇴튻룶쫊뛈뗄췋돶톡퓱ꎬ틔좷놣퓚늻뗃틑췋돶쫐뎡쪱룷랽쏦뗄쯰쪧뿉틔붵뗍떽ퟮ킡ꆣ헢튻랽쏦뫍웳튵쿈웚닉좡뗄햽싔늿쫰뫍탐뚯폐맘ꎬ쇭튻랽쏦튲쫜떽웳튵쯹퓚닺튵뗄닺튵쳘탔펰쿬ꎬ샽죧웳튵쯹퓚탐튵뗄췋돶뇚생ꎬ믲쫇닺튵솴짏쿂폎횮볤뗄벼쫵틀듦뛈ꆣ 퇓동웚좨쫇퓚쫐뎡쳵볾늻쏷샊ꆢ늻좷뚨탔뷏룟뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ퇓동ퟶ돶훘듳햽싔뻶닟쯹뒴퓬뗄좨샻ꆣ웳튵놣쇴ퟶ돶햽싔뻶닟뗄좨샻ꎬ듽쫐뎡쟩뿶뷸튻늽쏷샊쪱퓙뻶뚨쫇럱횴탐햽싔ꎬ쪵볊짏뻍쫇붨솢쇋퇓동웚좨ꆣ퇓동웚좨뗄볛횵쳥쿖퓚퓚룟뛈늻좷뚨뗄뮷뺳훐ꎬ췆동햽싔뻶닟뿉11
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 틔캪웳튵복짙늻뇘튪뗄럧쿕ꆣ쯤좻퓚뗈듽뗄맽돌훐웳튵쏦쇙ퟅ튻뚨뗄믺믡돉놾ꎬ떫뗈듽춬퇹뿉쓜듸룸웳튵탂뗄톡퓱믺믡뫍룼볓췗떱뗄햽싔뻶닟ꆣ죧맻뗈듽뗄볛횵뎬맽쇋웳튵솢벴닉좡햽싔탐뚯뿉듸살뗄볛횵ꎬ퓲퇓동웚좨쓜릻캪웳튵퓶볓볛횵ꆣ 퓶뎤웚좨쫇퓚늻좷뚨뮷뺳훐ꎬ웳튵춨맽쿈웚춶믲헟햽싔탐뚯붨솢웚좨ꎬ틔좷놣쪱믺돉쫬쪱폐좨샻닉좡벰쪱믲뷸튻늽햽싔탐뚯ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵쿈웚춶쫇뫳탸햽싔탐뚯뗄쿈뻶쳵볾ꎬ쿈웚춶뒴솢쇋냑컕캴살퓶뎤믺믡뗄웚좨ꆣ퓶뎤웚좨뿉틔뾴ퟷ쫇튻룶뗤탍뗄뷰죚뾴헇웚좨ꆣ웳튵춨맽돵웚춶붨솢웚좨뿉뾴ퟷ릺싲쇋튻룶뷰죚뾴헇웚좨ꎬ뛸웳튵뗈듽쪱믺돉쫬닉좡뷸튻늽햽싔탐뚯퓲뿉뾴ퟷ쫇횴탐뷰죚웚좨ꆣ 햽싔웚좨뗄볛횵살풴 늻좷뚨탔쿲살뛔웳튵햽싔맜샭웰ퟅ뢺쏦펰쿬ꎬ떫붨솢햽싔웚좨ꎬ웳튵춨맽웚좨쯸뚨쇋늻좷뚨탔뗄쿂뷧럧쿕ꎬ뛸햽싔웚좨뛔웳튵뿉틔믱뗃뗄짏뷧쫕틦늢쎻폐쿞훆ꆣ헢틢캶ퟅ늻좷뚨돌뛈풽룟ꎬ웳튵믱뗃짏뷧쫕틦뗄뿉쓜탔뻍풽듳ꎬ햽싔웚좨뗄볛횵뻍풽룟ꆣ 웚좨뚨볛샭싛뿉틔ힷ쯝떽1973쓪Fisher Black틔벰Myron Scholes쳡돶뗄훸쏻Black-Scholes쒣탍ꎬ뗬뚨쇋웚좨뚨볛뗄믹뒡ꆣBlack-Scholes쒣탍붫웚좨쫓캪튻캴뚨좨틦닺ꎬ폫웤쯼뻟폐쿠춬늨뚯싊뗄닺릹퓬튻컞럧쿕ퟩ뫏ꎬ볆쯣웚좨뗄볛횵ꆣ틲듋ꎬBlack-Scholes쒣탍뗄웚좨뚨볛랽램튲뿉틔돆캪캴뚨좨틦램ꆣ횮뫳ꎬ웚좨뚨볛튻횱쫇뷰죚톧볒쏇퇐뺿뗄훘튪쇬폲ꆣ쯻쏇럗럗뛔B-S쒣탍믲뷢쫍ꆢ믲삩햹ꆢ믲펦폃떽웤쯼훖샠웚좨뗄뚨볛짏ꆣ듋췢ꎬ톧헟쏇뮹쳡돶쇋웤쯼웚좨뚨볛랽램ꎬ훷튪폐뛾닦쫷쒣탍ꆢ쏉쳘뾨싞쒣탍틔벰폐쿞닮럖랽램뗈ꆣ 웚좨훐뗄톡퓱좨샻쓜릻캪돖폐헟듸살쫕틦뗄잰쳡쳵볾쫇ꎺ쯹틀뢽뗄뇪뗄닺뗄볛횵뗄뇤뮯뇘탫쫇늻좷뚨뗄ꆣ럱퓲ꎬ뻍늻듦퓚룹뻝탎쫆뫃뮵ퟶ돶톡퓱뗄컊쳢ꆣ틲듋ꎬ웚좨뗄솽룶훘튪볛횵살풴쫇ꎺ뗚튻ꎬ웚좨뢳폨춶헟ꎨ햽싔훆뚨헟ꎩ톡퓱뗄좨샻ꎻ뗚뛾ꎬ쯹틀뢽뗄뇪뗄닺ꎨ햽싔ꎩ뗄캴살볛횵듦퓚늻좷뚨탔ꆣ 평폚햽싔웚좨뗄쮼쿫살풴폚뷰죚웚좨ꎬ웤볛횵뻶뚨틲쯘튲뫍뷰죚웚좨볛횵뻶뚨틲쯘럇뎣쿠쯆ꆣ뷰죚웚좨훐맣랺쪹폃뗄Black-Scholes뚨볛쒣탍틀뾿볲떥뗄볙짨뺫튪뗘횸돶쇋펰쿬뷰죚웚좨볛횵뗄훷튪뇤솿ꎬ뛔햽싔웚좨볛횵뗄뫢솿폐뫜듳뷨본틢틥ꆣB-S웚좨뚨볛쒣탍뛔얷쪽뾴헇웚좨뗄뚨볛릫쪽캪ꎺ −r(T−t)=SN(d1)−XeN(d2)얷쪽뾴헇웚좨볛횵 웤훐ꎺ 12
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 2log(S/X)+rt+σt/2d1= σt 2log(S/X)+rt−σt/2d2= σt N(d)ꎽ헽첬럖늼뗄샛볆몯쫽 X ꎽ웚좨뗄횴탐볛룱 S ꎽ뇪뗄닺떱잰볛룱 2σꎽ뇪뗄닺쫕틦싊뗄랽닮 t ꎽ뻠샫웚좨떽웚쪱볤 r ꎽ컞럧쿕샻싊 짏쫶릫쪽쿲컒쏇쏨쫶쇋펰쿬뾴헇웚좨볛횵뗄훘튪뇤솿ꎬ헢킩뇤솿럖뇰캪ꎺ웚좨뗄횴탐볛2룱Xꎬ뇪뗄닺떱잰볛룱Sꎬ뇪뗄닺쫕틦싊뗄랽닮σꎬ뻠샫웚좨떽웚쪱볤t뫍컞럧쿕샻싊rꆣ헢컥룶뇤솿뛔웚좨볛횵뗄펰쿬죧쿂ꎺ 뇭2-4 펰쿬웚좨볛횵뗄훷튪뇤솿 Table 2-4 Determinants of options value 폫웚좨볛횵맘쾵 뇤솿 뾴헇웚좨볛횵 뾴뗸웚좨볛횵 웚좨횴탐볛룱X 뢺쿠맘 헽쿠맘 뇪뗄닺떱잰볛룱S 헽쿠맘 뢺쿠맘 2뇪뗄닺쫕틦싊뗄랽닮σ 헽쿠맘 헽쿠맘 뻠샫웚좨떽웚쪱볤ꏴ 헽쿠맘 헽쿠맘 컞럧쿕샻싊ꏲ 헽쿠맘 뢺쿠맘 햽싔웚좨쯤좻쫇웚좨뚨볛샭싛듓뷰죚쇬폲쿲햽싔맜샭쇬폲뗄췘햹ꎬ좻뛸쯼쏇듦퓚ퟅ튻룶ퟮ놾훊뗄늻춬횮뒦ꎺ웚좨뚨볛샭싛뗄뫋탄쒿뗄퓚폚룸룷훖퇜짺횤좯뚨볛ꎬ뛸쪵컯웚좨샭싛뫋탄쒿뗄퓚폚ퟶ돶헽좷뗄햽싔뻶닟ꆣ B-S웚좨뚨볛쒣탍쿲컒쏇뷒쪾쇋뻶뚨얷쪽뾴헇웚좨볛횵뗄컥룶훷튪뇤솿ꎬ뛔폚뫢솿햽싔웚좨볛횵폐뷏듳뷨본틢틥ꆣ평폚햽싔웚좨쿠뛔뷰죚웚좨살쮵쫇튻룶룼볓돩쿳뫍뫪맛뗄룅쓮ꎬ뫜쓑춨맽샠뇈붫뻶뚨뷰죚웚좨뗄컥룶훷튪뇤솿튻튻뛔펦떽햽싔웚좨뗄볛횵뫢솿쳥쾵훐뷸탐솿뮯ꎬ룼컞램췆떼돶햽싔웚좨뗄뚨볛릫쪽ꆣ떫쫇뷰죚웚좨쮼쿫뫍햽싔웚좨쮼쿫뗄뺫쯨쫇쿠춬13
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 뗄ꎺ돤럖샻폃늻좷뚨탔훐틾몬뗄믺믡ꎬ틔짙솿춶믲떱잰탐뚯믱뗃좨샻ꎬ틔웚퓚캴살뿉쿭쫜잱퓚뗄뻞듳쫕틦ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ퓚뫢솿햽싔웚좨뗄볛횵맽돌훐ꎬ뿉틔닎뾼헢컥룶뇤솿쯹뛔펦뗄쪵볊쓚죝ꎬ뷸탐뚨탔럖컶ꎬ뛔햽싔뻶닟폐ퟅ뫜훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ 퓚쪵볊햽싔뻶닟훐ꎬ놻쫨뫶뗴뗄컊쳢쯹떼훂뗄럧쿕믡풶듳폚틲햽싔럖컶뗄듭컳쯹듸살뗄럧쿕ꎬ햽싔웚좨랽램헽쫇춨맽뛔늻좷뚨탔뷡맻뷸탐맦랶뮯쮼뾼ꎬ복짙틲캪쫨뫶늻좷뚨탔쯹듸살뗄햽싔맽쪧ꎬ늢춨맽폐킧맜샭늻좷뚨탔살뒴퓬볛횵ꆣ샻폃햽싔웚좨랽램ퟷ돶헽좷뗄햽싔뻶닟쳥쿖퓚솽룶랽쏦ꎺ튻쫇햽싔웚좨뗄쮼캬랽쪽뾪삫쇋퇛뷧ꎬ퓶볓쇋퓚햽싔뻶닟탎돉맽돌훐뗄놸톡랽낸ꎻ뛾쫇햽싔웚좨뗄벼쫵럖컶뿉틔붫햽싔풶볻뮯캪햽쫵탔춶뻶닟ꆣ쯹틔ꎬ햽싔웚좨뻸늻펦뾴ퟷ쫇뷰죚웚좨뚨볛벼쫵뗄ꆰ쇬폲췢퇓ꆱꎬ뛸펦룃놻쫓캪횸떼햽싔뻶닟뗄튻쳗쮼쿫뫍벼쫵ꎬ웤쒿뗄늻퓚폚뚨볛뛸퓚폚ퟶ돶헽좷뗄햽싔춶뻶닟ꆣ틲듋ꎬ훷튪뺫솦펦럅퓚샻폃햽싔웚좨랽램럖컶퓚햽싔훆뚨맽돌훐쓄킩늻좷뚨탔틲쯘붫뛔햽싔뻶닟ퟶ돶펰쿬ꎿ헢킩펰쿬쫇퓵퇹뗄ꎿ틔벰죧뫎샻폃헢킩늻좷뚨탔틲쯘ퟶ돶샻틦ퟮ듳뮯뗄햽싔춶뻶닟ꆣ McGrath뫍Nerkar (2001)쳡돶쇋ꆰ믺믡뗄랶캧ꆱꎨscope of opportunityꎩ뗄룅쓮ꎬ뛔폚햽싔웚좨볛횵살쮵럇뎣훘튪ꆣ쯹캽ꆰ믺믡뗄랶캧ꆱꎬ뻍쫇잱퓚뗄퓶뎤믺폶ꎬ틠벴햽싔춶쏦쇙뗄늨뚯ꆣ뛔폚뷰죚웚좨살쮵ꎬ믺믡랶캧뗄퓶뎤평뇪뗄닺막욱볛횵뗄늨뚯살랴펳ꎬ쟒막욱볛횵늨뚯풽듳ꎬ믺믡뗄랶캧풽듳ꎬ뷰죚웚좨뗄볛횵풽듳ꆣ헢쫇틲캪뛔뷰죚웚좨뗄춶쯸뚨퓚릺싲웚좨쯹뢶돶뗄춶ꎬ뛸릺싲웚좨뫳쯼뢳폨쇋춶헟쿭쫜웚좨듸살뗄짏뷧쫕틦ꎬ춬쪱붫쿂뷧럧쿕쯸뚨퓚튻뚨랶캧쓚뗄좨샻ꆣ햽싔웚좨뗄볛횵룹풴폫듋쿠쯆ꆣ웳튵펵폐햽싔웚좨뫳ꎬ뿉틔춨맽럅웺웚좨붫쯰쪧뫍럧쿕뿘훆퓚튻뚨랶캧쓚ꎬ떫웤쫕틦쫇쯦ퟅ믺믡뗄랶캧ꎬ벴웳튵쏦쇙뗄늻좷뚨탔뛸퓶볓뗄ꆣ 14
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 햽싔웚좨쮼쿫햽싔볛횵 웚좨볛횵뒫춳햽싔볛횵뫢솿맛뗣늻좷뚨탔 춼2-1햽싔웚좨쮼쿫폫뒫춳햽싔볛횵뫢솿맛뗣뗄쟸뇰 Figure 2-1 Difference between strategic options method and traditional view on valuing strategy 뛔폚햽싔웚좨살쮵ꎬ늻좷뚨탔벴쫇웳튵쏦쇙뗄햽싔뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨ꎬ튲뻍쫇맩룹뷡뗗ꎬ햽싔웚좨뗄볛횵살풴폚늻좷뚨탔쯹듸살뗄잱퓚믺믡ꆣ뻟쳥살쮵ꎬ햽싔웚좨룸폨뻶닟헟쪵쪩햽싔뗄튻훖좨샻뛸럇틥컱ꎬ웤볛횵쯦ퟅ늻좷뚨탔뗄퓶볓뛸퓶볓ꎬ훷튪랴펳퓚죽룶랽쏦ꎺ튻쫇횴탐듋웚좨ꎬ튲뻍쫇뷸튻늽쪵쪩햽싔ꎬ듸룸웳튵잱퓚볛횵ꎬ헢훖볛횵뗄퓶횵샭싛짏살쮵쫇컞쿞뗄ꎻ뛾쫇췆동듋웚좨ꎬ튲뻍쫇췆동쪵쪩햽싔폐뿉쓜믡룸웳튵듸살룼듳볛횵ꎻ죽쫇럅웺듋웚좨ꎬ튲뻍쫇짳쪱뛈쫆ꎬ쫊쪱럅웺햽싔쪵쪩ꎬ틔뇜쏢튻듭퓙듭ꎬ벰쪱놣횤쯰쪧듸룸웳튵뗄펰쿬ퟮ킡ꆣ 솢벴횴탐웚좨 살풴 쳥쿖 늻좷뚨탔 햽싔웚좨볛횵럅웺웚좨 퇓동횴탐웚좨 춼2-2햽싔웚좨뗄볛횵살풴 Figure 2-2 Source of Strategic Options Value 햽싔웚좨뗄쪵횤퇐뺿 맺쓚췢뛔햽싔웚좨뗄퇐뺿늢캴뷶뷶춣쇴퓚샭싛첽쳖짏ꎬ튲짮죫떽쇋웳튵맜샭쪵볹훐ꆣ퓚15
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 맽좥뗄뛾쪮뛠쓪샯ꎬ튻킩톧헟뎢쫔쇋뛔햽싔웚좨뷸탐쪵횤퇐뺿ꆣ 쪵컯웚좨쮼쿫쳡돶뫳ꎬ웤펦폃퇐뺿듓1980쓪듺훐웚뾪쪼탋쪢ꎬ퓧웚퇐뺿훷튪벯훐퓚ퟔ좻풴쇬폲ꎬ틲캪퓚웚믵붻틗쫐뎡뿉틔뇈뷏죝틗뗘헒떽쯹탨뗄쿠펦닎쫽ꎬ뫳살훰붥췘햹떽룷룶늻춬뺭볃쇬폲ꎬ죧ꎺ탅쾢폫짺컯벼쫵ꆢ훆퓬폫듦믵ꆢퟔ좻풴ꆢ퇐뺿&뾪랢ꆢ랿뗘닺뾪랢ꆢ막볛움맀ꆢ뺺헹폫햽싔ꆢ벼쫵뒴탂ꆢ탅쾢폫짺컯벼쫵뗈ꆣ Bruce Kogutꎨ1991ꎩ닉폃쪵횤뗄퇐뺿랽램ꎬ뗷닩쇋튻룶볙짨ꎺ뫏웳튵뗄짨볆쫇ퟷ캪웚좨살춶뗄ꎬ헢룶웚좨춨맽냾샫뫍쫕릺뗄뻶뚨살횴탐ꆣ쯻춳볆퇐뺿럖컶쪲쎴틲쯘퓶볓쫕릺뗄뿉쓜탔ꆣ뷡싛쿔쪾헢킩틲쯘쫇캴풤쇏떽뗄뫏웳튵볛횵뗄퓶볓뫍닺튵벯훐뛈뗄퓶볓ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵룟뛈늻좷뚨뗄뮷뺳룸웳튵뗄햽싔웚좨듸살쇋볛횵ꆣ Bent PetersenꎬDenice Ellen Welch뫍Lawrence Stephenson Welchꎨ2000ꎩ춨맽뛔튻쾵쇐릫쮾뗄낸샽퇐뺿횸돶쇋뮻웚좨퓚뿧맺춶햽싔훐뗄훘튪ퟷ폃ꆣ쯻쏇죏캪퓚뷸죫몣췢쫐뎡돵웚ꎬ웳튵쏦쇙뗄췢늿뮷뺳돤싺쇋뇤쫽ꎬ듋쪱웳튵뿉틀뾿떱뗘퓋펪짌냯훺웤췘햹쫐뎡ꆣ떫쫇떱웳튵쫬쾤쇋뷢탂쫐뎡뫳쾣췻쓜릻붨솢룼볓뛀솢ퟔ훷뗄퓋ퟷ믺릹ꎬ듋쪱죴웳튵펵폐몣췢춶뗄뮻웚좨ꎬ뿉틔붫돵웚뗄퓋펪쒣쪽뮻캪룼볓뛀솢뿉뿘뗄퓋펪쒣쪽ꎬ뛔폚웳튵볛횵퓶볓살쮵틬뎣훘튪ꆣ Sakarꎨ2001ꎩ퇐뺿쇋쫐뎡늻좷뚨탔뫍웳튵춶맘쾵ꎬ쳘뇰뾼싇쇋쾵춳럧쿕ꆣ뷡싛쿔쪾ꎬ뛔튻킩뗍퓶뎤ꆢ뗍럧쿕뗄햽싔쿮쒿ꎬ퓶볓늻좷뚨탔뿉쓜믡퓶볓웳튵뗄햽싔춶룅싊ꆣ Timothy B. Folta 뫍Jonathan P. O'Brienꎨ2003ꎩ훐튲닉폃쇋쪵횤퇐뺿뗄랽램ꎬ뗷닩퇐뺿쇋탐튵늻좷뚨탔뛔폚쿖폐릫쮾뷸죫탂쇬폲뗄펰쿬ꎬ쳡돶쇋퇓동웚좨뫍퓶뎤웚좨횮볤뗄돥춻틔벰퓚늻좷뚨뮷뺳쿂뗄볛횵ꆣ Rita Gunther McGrath뫍Atul Nerkarꎨ2004ꎩ춨맽뛔쏀맺훆튩웳튵퇐랢햽싔뗄쪵횤퇐뺿ꎬ퇩횤쇋퓚늻좷뚨뮷뺳훐ꎬ웳튵뻶닟헟퓚웳튵퇐랢햽싔훐쪹폃쇋퓶뎤웚좨뗄쮼쿫ꎬ뺡맜폐킩뻶닟헟뛔듋늢컞틢쪶ꆣGunther뫍Nerkar뮹헒돶쇋펰쿬퇐랢햽싔훐퓶뎤웚좨볛횵뗄죽룶훷튪틲쯘ꎺ탐튵퓶뎤뗄늨뚯ꎬ틔췹퇐랢춶뗄펰쿬틔벰탐튵뺺헹뗄벤쇒돌뛈ꆣ 닎뾼Trigeorgisꎨ1993ꎩꆢLander&Pinchesꎨ1998ꎩꆢMiller&Parkꎨ2002ꎩ뫍럫냮퇥ꎨ2003ꎩ뗄퇐뺿ꎬ붫맺췢쪵컯웚좨뗄퇐뺿쇬폲벰듺뇭탔퇐뺿컄쿗맩쓉퓚뇭2-3훐ꆣ 16
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 뇭2-3쪵컯웚좨뗄펦폃쇬폲벰웤듺뇭탔퇐뺿컄쿗 Table 2-3 Representative Papers on Application of Real Options 퇐뺿쇬폲 듺뇭탔퇐뺿컄쿗 Brennan&Schwartzꎨ1985ꎩꆢPaddockꎬSiegeland&Smithퟔ좻풴 ꎨ1988ꎩꆢKemnaꎨ1993ꎩꆢKellyꎨ1998ꎩꆢCortazar&Casassusꎨ1998ꎩꆢKamrad&Ernstꎨ2001ꎩ Ottooꎨ1998ꎩꆢPanayi&Trigeorgisꎨ1998ꎩꆢSchwartz&Moon탅쾢폫짺컯벼ꎨ2000ꎩꆢRausser& 쫵 Smaꎨll2000ꎩꆢKellogg&Charneꎨs2000ꎩꆢBrach&Paxsonꎨ2001ꎩ Ritchken&Tapieroꎨ1986ꎩꆢChungꎨ1990ꎩꆢ훆퓬폫듦믵 McLaughlin&Taggartꎨ1992ꎩꆢCortazar&Schwartzꎨ1993ꎩꆢMauer&Ottꎨ1995ꎩꆢStowe&Suꎨ1997ꎩ MorrisꎬTeisburg&Kolbeꎨ1991ꎩꆢHerath&Parkꎨ1999ꎩꆢ퇐뺿&뾪랢 Childs&Triantisꎨ1999ꎩꆢJensen&Warrenꎨ2001ꎩꆢLee&Paxsonꎨ2001ꎩꆢLint&Penningsꎨ2001ꎩ 럧쿕춶 Sahlmanꎨ1993ꎩꆢGompersꎨ1995ꎩ Chung&Charoenwongꎨ1991ꎩꆢKeeley&Punjabiꎨ1996ꎩꆢ막볛움맀 Kellyꎨ1998ꎩꆢJagleꎨ1999ꎩꆢKellogg&Charnesꎨ2000ꎩ Bowman&Hrryꎨ1993ꎩꆢKogut&Kulatilakaꎨ1994ꎩꆢBollen뺺헹폫햽싔 ꎨ1999ꎩꆢBernardo&Chowdhryꎨ2002ꎩ Kumarꎨ1996ꎩꆢMcGrathꎨ1997ꎩꆢTaudesꎨ1998ꎩꆢ벼쫵뾪랢 McGrath&Macmillanꎨ2000ꎩꆢBoerꎨ2000ꎩ Titmanꎨ1985ꎩꆢWilliamꎨ1991ꎬ1993ꎩꆢQuiggꎨ1993ꎩꆢ랿뗘닺튵 Capozza&Liꎨ1994ꎩꆢGrenadierꎨ1995ꎬ1996ꎬ2005ꎩꆢWang&Zhouꎨ2006ꎩ 맺쓚뛔쪵컯웚좨뗄퇐뺿쪼폚뻅쪮쓪듺쒩ꎬ돂킡퓃뗈ꎨ1998ꎩ쫗쿈퓚ꆰ쪵컯웚좨뗄럖컶폫맀횵ꆱ튻컄훐틽죫쪵컯웚좨뗄룅쓮ꎬ뷩짜쇋쪵컯웚좨뗄믹놾럖샠ꎬ늢닻쫶쇋쪹폃샫즢쒣탍뫍솬탸쒣탍뛔쪵컯웚좨뷸탐맀횵뗄믹놾랽램ꎻ믆뾭ꎨ1998ꎩ퓲뛔붫웚좨뚨볛샭싛펦폃폚웳튵뗄햽싔춶뻶닟쇬폲뗄랽램뷸탐쇋첽쯷ꆣ횮뫳ꎬ쪵컯웚좨퓚맺쓚뷰죚ꆢ맜샭쇬폲쿆웰쇋퇐뺿죈뎱ꎬ펿쿖돶듳솿컄쿗ꎬ훷튪뿉럖캪ꎺ퇐뺿ퟛ쫶ꆢ퇐뺿&랢햹춶닟싔ꆢ룟뿆벼웳튵볛횵움맀ꆢퟔ좻풴춶뾪랢ꆢ럧쿕춶ꆢ웳튵햽싔뻶닟ꆢ웳튵닆컱죚뻶닟ꆢ랿뗘닺춶뾪랢뻶닟틔벰쪵컯웚좨샭싛퇐뺿뗈ꆣ 쒿잰맺쓚맘폚햽싔웚좨뗄쪵횤퇐뺿뮹뒦폚웰늽뷗뛎ꎬퟮ뻟듺뇭탔뗄쫇믆죊?ꎨ2007ꎩ쯹ퟶ뗄늻좷뚨뮷뺳쿂햽싔웚좨뛔웳튵뷸죫탂탐튵뻶닟뗄펰쿬퇐뺿ꆣ퓚뛔맺쓚쪮벸룶탐튵뷼솽냙볒짏쫐웳튵뷸탐쪵횤럖컶ꎬ뗃돶뷡싛햽싔웚좨뛔폚웳튵뷸죫탂탐튵뻶닟늢컞쿔훸펰쿬ꎬ쟒평폚맺쓚췢뮷뺳뗄늻춬ꎬ웳튵쪵볹뛔햽싔웚좨샭싛뗄럻뫏돌뛈늻춬ꆣ 17
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯샭싛ퟛ쫶 ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯쫇횸퓚벼쫵짏뿉럖샫뗄솽룶믲뛠룶짺닺뷗뛎벯훐폚튻룶웳튵훐믲헟놻훃폚춳튻쯹폐좨ꎨunified ownershipꎩ횮쿂뗄튻훖뫏늢쒣쪽ꎬ쯼냼삨뫳쿲ꎨ짏폎ꎩ튻쳥뮯뫍잰쿲ꎨ쿂폎ꎩ튻쳥뮯ꎬ잰헟폖돆ꆰ릺싲뮹쫇ퟔ훆ꆱꎨto buy or to makeꎩ뻶닟ꎬ뫳헟폖돆캪ꆰ돶쫛뮹쫇ퟔ폃ꆱꎨto sell or to useꎩ뻶닟ꆣ뒫춳햽싔샭싛죏캪ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뿉쓜퓚틔쿂컥룶랽쏦쳥쿖돶웤폅쫆ꎺꋙ뷏뗍뗄닉릺뫍쿺쫛돉놾ꎻꋚ릩펦믲럖쿺뗄놣횤ꎻꋛ룼뫃뗄짺닺뫍뿢듦뿘훆ꎻꋜ룼잿뗄퇐랢쓜솦뫍뗷헻닺욷뗄쓜솦ꎻꋝ쳡룟뷸죫뇚생ꆣ ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯늻춬폚믹폚맦쒣뺭볃뗄웳튵맦쒣뗄뫡쿲삩듳뫍믹폚랶캧뺭볃뗄럖즢뮯뺭펪ꎬ맦쒣뺭볃뫍랶캧뺭볃룷뻟폐웤벼쫵쫴탔ꎺ맦쒣뺭볃쫇횸쯦ퟅ춶죫뗄퓶볓ꎬ닺돶틔룼뿬뗄쯙뛈퓶볓ꎬ죧맻춶죫욷볛룱놣돖늻뇤ꎬ쓇쎴욽뻹돉놾붫쿂붵ꎻ뛸랶캧뺭볃퓲쫇횸쯦ퟅ닺욷훖샠믲짺닺믮뚯뗄뛠퇹뮯ꎬ뷏횮폚웳튵듓쫂튻훖닺욷짺닺믲뺭펪믮뚯ꎬ뿉틔뷚풼돉놾ꆣ맦쒣뺭볃뫍랶캧뺭볃랴펳짺닺벼쫵놾짭쯹뻟폐뗄쳘헷ꎬ뛸ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯쫇닺튵솴짏럖릤뗄쓦쏼쳢ꎬ쫇튻훖짺닺ퟩ횯탎첬컊쳢ꆣ ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄뚯틲 맘폚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄뚯틲폐솽훖돉쳥쾵뗄샭싛톧엉ꎺ틔뿋삭뿋ꆢ쮹뗙룱샕ꆢ낢싞뗈훷쇷뺭볃톧볒캪듺뇭뗄닺튵ퟩ횯톧엉ꎬ듓슢뛏뚯믺ꆢ벼쫵뺭볃ꆢ닺튵짺쏼훜웚ꆢ늻좷뚨탔ꆢ맦쒣킧틦ꆢ벼쫵뒴탂뫍쫐뎡좱쿝살뷢쫍ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯탐캪ꎻ틔뿆쮹뫍췾솮쒷즭캪듺뇭뗄훆뛈뺭볃톧엉퓲틽죫쇋붻틗돉놾뗄룅쓮ꎬ듓닺폃탔ꆢ믺믡훷틥ꆢ늻좷뚨탔맦뇜뫍쪣폠좨샻뗈랽쏦살쾵춳닻쫶헢훖햽싔탐캪뗄뺭볃톧몬틥ꆣ 닺튵ퟩ횯톧엉뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뚯틲샭싛 닺튵ퟩ횯톧엉죏캪ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯쫇웳튵뗄쫐뎡탐캪횮튻ꎬ평쳘뚨뗄쫐뎡뷡릹쯹뻶뚨ꎬ폖랴맽살펰쿬쫐뎡뷡릹ꎬ늢펰쿬쫐뎡벨킧ꆣ닺튵ퟩ횯톧엉뛔폚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄뚯틲뗄뷢쫍훷튪폐슢뛏뚯믺쮵ꆢ벼쫵뺭볃쮵ꆢ닺튵짺쏼훜웚쮵ꆢ벼쫵뒴탂쮵뫍맦뇜늻좷뚨쮵ꆣ 슢뛏뚯믺쮵듓슢뛏뗄뷇뛈살럖컶웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯탐캪ꎬ죏캪ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯폐훺폚퓶잿웳튵뗄슢뛏쫆솦ꎬ듓뛸퓶볓슢뛏샻죳ꆣ훷튪뇭쿖퓚틔쿂벸룶랽쏦ꎺ뗚튻ꎬ쮫뇟슢뛏ꆣ죧맻짺닺짌뫍쿺쫛짌뚼쫇슢뛏뎧짌쪱ꎬ 쎿튻볒뚼믡퓶볓튻듎슢뛏볓돉ꎬ쿻럑헟붫쏦쇙솽듎볓돉ꎬ탎돉쯹캽뗄ꆰ쮫뇟슢뛏ꆱꆣ춨맽릹붨볲떥뗄쒣탍뿉틔횤쏷ꎬ쮫뇟슢뛏붫닺짺룟볛룱ꆢ뗍닺돶뗄뷡맻ꎬ늻뷶쫇쿻럑헟ꎬ뎧짌튲틲쮫뇟슢뛏뛸퓢쫜쯰쪧ꆣ폫룷ퟔ슢뛏뗄쟩탎뇈뷏ꎬ죧맻짺닺짌뫍18
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 쿺쫛짌쪵쿖ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯ꎬ쓇쎴뎧짌뗄샻죳ퟜ뫍믡퓶볓ꎬ쿻럑헟뢣샻튲믡쳡룟ꆣ틲듋ꎬ컞싛쫇쿻럑헟ꎬ뮹쫇뎧짌뚼폐뚯솦좥쪵쿖ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯ꆣ뗚뛾ꎬ업벷탐캪폫뷸죫뇚생ꆣ죧Kenneth Clarksonꎨ1989ꎩ뗈쯹쫶ꎬ퓚튻킩쟩뿶쿂ꎬ튻룶잿폐솦뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯웳튵쓜냑캴ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄웳튵업벷돶좥ꆣ볙짨튻룶ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯웳튵퓚튻훖ퟮ훕닺욷뗄짺닺맽돌훐뗄잰탲뷗뛎뻟폐슢뛏쓜솦ꎬ헢룶웳튵뇣뿉틔쳡룟잰탲뷗뛎닺욷뗄볛룱ꎬ쪹캴ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯웳튵릺싲춶죫쪱횧뢶룟볛ꆣ쯻뮹뿉샻폃웤슢뛏뗘캻톹뗍ퟮ훕닺욷뗄볛룱ꎬ캴ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯웳튵뻍늻뗃늻룟볛릺뷸ꎬ뗍볛돶쫛ꎬ듓뛸놻룏돶쫐뎡ꆣ뗚죽ꎬ볛룱웧쫓ꆣ볛룱웧쫓쫇평ꆰ횥볓룧톧엉ꆱ쳡돶살뗄뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯탐캪뗄훷튪뷢쫍ꆣ춨맽ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯ꎬ슢뛏헟뿉틔쪵탐볛룱웧쫓ꎬ좡룼뛠뗄쿻럑헟쪣폠ꎬ퓚캴튻쳥뮯쟩뿶쿂헢훖뿉쓜탔튪킡뗄뛠ꆣ헢쫇틲캪ꎬ훐볤뎧짌죧맻횻짺닺훐볤닺욷ꎨ벴캴쪵탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯ꎩꎬ쓇쎴뺡맜쿻럑헟폐늻춬뗄볛룱탨쟳떯탔ꎬ평폚쿻럑헟횮볤믡랢짺싴탐캪ꎬ훐볤뎧짌쓑틔쫕좡늻춬볛룱ꆣ죧맻훐볤닺욷훆퓬헟춬쪱짺닺ퟮ훕닺욷ꎬ 뻍쓜럀횹횧뢶뗍볛뗄뎧짌쿲횧뢶룟볛뗄뎧짌싴닺욷ꎬ듓뛸쪵탐볛룱웧쫓ꆣ 벼쫵뺭볃쮵죏캪짺닺맽돌뗄벼쫵틀듦탔쫇탎돉ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄훷튪풭틲ꆣ탭뛠짺닺뷗뛎퓚벼쫵짏뷴쏜쿠솪ꎬ죧쪯폍볓릤맽돌뗄솬탸ퟷ튵믲튱뷰맽돌뗄볓죈ꆢ퓾룖뗈릤탲ꎬ춨맽ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뿉틔냑쿠볌짺닺뮷뷚솪쾵웰살ꎬ틔뇣듓벼쫵짏뷚풼돉놾ꎬ쪹짺닺룼폐킧싊ꎬ헢훖벼쫵짏뗄뺭볃탔믡듙쪹웳튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯ꆣ뇈죧퓚퓬횽튵ꎬ훆붬뫍탂컅횽짺닺춨맽ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯솪뫏짺닺ꎬ뿉틔뇜쏢풭쇏뗄뫦룉뫍퓙볓쮮럑폃ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ벼쫵짏듦퓚튻뚨틀듦뛈뗄웳튵뮹믡퓚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐닺짺랶캧뺭볃ꆣ벼쫵횪쪶ꆢ맜샭횪쪶뫍뺭펪탅쾢뗄볛횵늻죝뗍맀ꎬ헢킩횪쪶뫍탅쾢퓚쫐뎡돶쫛킧싊첫뗍ꎬ웳튵춨맽ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뿉틔돤럖샻폃쯼쏇듸살뗄랶캧뺭볃ꆣ 닺튵짺쏼훜웚쮵평George Joseph Stiglerꎨ1989ꎩ쳡돶ꎬ쯻죏캪ꎬ튻룶닺튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈쯦ퟅ닺튵짺쏼훜웚룄뇤뛸룄뇤ꆣ퓚탂탋쫐뎡훐ꎬ평폚쫐뎡맦쒣폐쿞ꆢ탅쾢좱랦ꎬꆰ뎧짌탨튪뗄탂훖샠믲탂욷훊뗄풭닄쇏횻쓜ퟔ벺훆퓬ꎬ쯼쏇뇘탫ퟔ벺뷢뻶웤닺욷쪹폃훐뗄벼쫵컊쳢뛸늻쓜뗈듽잱퓚쪹폃헟살뷢뻶ꎻ쯼쏇뇘탫ퟔ벺좰폕맋뿍럅웺웤쯻욷ꎬ뛸늻뿉쓜헒떽튵뮯뗄짌튵믺릹살돐떣헢튻죎컱ꎻ쯼쏇뇘탫ퟔ탐짨볆ꆢ훆퓬튵뮯뗄짨놸ꎻퟔ벺엠통벼쫵릤죋ꆣ듋쪱ꎬ쫐뎡훐듦퓚듳솿뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯쿖쿳ꆣ떱닺튵랢햹ꎬ쫐뎡맦쒣삩듳늢쟒잰춾뾴뫃쪱ꎬ탭뛠짏쫶릤ퟷ뗄쫽솿뇣믡뛠떽ퟣ틔틆붻룸튵뮯뎧짌좥췪돉ꆣퟮ뫳ꎬ떱룃닺튵뾪쪼쮥실쪱ꎬ쓇킩웰뢨훺ꆢ늹돤ퟷ폃뗄럖횧닺튵튲믡쮥실ꎬ룃닺튵훐닐듦뎧짌늻뗃늻훘닙뻉튵ꎬ돐떣웰쓇킩늻퓙ퟣ틔캬돖뛀솢뎧짌뗄릦쓜ꆣꆱ쮹뗙룱샕춬쪱뮹틔쏀맺뗄쏞럄믺킵튵캪샽햹쪾쇋헢튻뇤뮯맽돌ꆣ 맦뇜늻좷뚨탔쮵죏캪ꎬ쪵탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뿉틔믱뗃뷏좷뚨뗄춶죫튪쯘릩룸ꎬ믲뷏좷뚨뗄닺19
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 욷쫐뎡ꎬ듓뛸뇜쏢풭닄쇏뫍닺욷쫐뎡늻좷뚨탔듸살뗄쯰쪧ꆣ뿏쓡쮹ꆤ낢싞ꎨKenneth JꎮArrowꎬ1989ꎩ잿뗷쇋짏폎닺욷릩룸뗄늻좷뚨탔뫍쿂폎웳튵캴살탨쟳탅쾢뗄늻좷뚨탔뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벤샸ꆣ쯻쳡돶쇋헢퇹튻훖뿉쓜탔ꎺ떱잰튻짺닺뷗뛎뗄웳튵뫍뫳튻짺닺뷗뛎뗄웳튵믱뗃뗄탅쾢늻춬쪱ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뿉틔룄뷸솽룶짺닺뷗뛎뗄풴엤훃ꆣ퓚낢싞뗄럖컶훐ꎬ쿂폎웳튵늻쓜믱뗃돤럖뗄폐맘풭닄쇏뗄탅쾢ꎬ헢쿞훆쇋쯻쏇ퟶ돶폐킧뗄맘폚짺닺훐춶죫튪쯘뇈샽뗄뻶닟ꆣ쯻죏캪짏폎뗄풭닄쇏짺닺웳튵붫뇈쿂폎닺튵훐뗄웳튵믱뗃룼뛠탅쾢ꎬ쿂폎웳튵쿔좻룼풸틢쪵탐뫳쿲튻쳥뮯ꎬ뫏늢짏폎웳튵ꎬ틔뇣룼뫃뗄풤닢풭닄쇏볛룱ꆣ뾨뛻뛙ꎨ1998ꎩ횸돶ꎬ늻좷뚨탔늻뷶랢짺퓚벼쫵쿠뮥틀듦뗄짺닺늿쏅ꎬ횻튪뺺헹탔쫐뎡듦퓚볛룱룕탔뻍뿉쓜떼훂ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯닺튵솴퓝쪱춣뛙ꎬ뫳탸뗄뎧짌믡쿲잰튻쳥뮯틔놣횤ퟔ벺춶죫튪쯘뗄릩룸늻쫜늻좷뚨탔뗄펰쿬ꎬ뛸ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄돌뛈퓲좡뻶폚뫳탸뎧짌튪쟳튪쯘뗄믱뗃룅싊ꆣ 탂훆뛈뺭볃톧엉뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뚯틲샭싛 탂훆뛈뺭볃톧엉듓웳튵뛔쫐뎡뗄쳦듺뫍붵뗍붻틗럑폃뷇뛈뷢쫍쇋ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄뚯틲ꆣ 쿖듺웳튵샭싛뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯퇐뺿뗄뫋탄쫇붻틗럑폃샭싛ꎬ쪼폚싞쓉뗂ꆤ뿆쮹ꎨRonald Coaseꎬ1937ꎩ랢뇭뗄ꆶ웳튵뗄탔훊ꆷꆣ쯻죏캪ꎬ퓚쿖쪵뺭볃훐풴뗄쇷뚯늻췪좫쫇탂맅뗤뺭볃톧볒죏캪뗄평볛룱믺훆뻶뚨ꎬ늢쟒볛룱믺훆뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ벴쫐뎡뗄퓋탐쫇폐돉놾뗄ꆣ웳튵쫇쫐뎡믺훆뗄쳦듺컯ꎬ쫐뎡뫍웳튵쫇풴엤훃뗄솽훖뿉틔뮥쿠쳦듺뗄쫖뛎ꆣ웳튵돶쿖뗄풭틲퓚폚ꎬ퓋폃웳튵쓚늿뗄탐헾맜샭쫖뛎뷏횮퓋폃럇죋룱뮯뗄볛룱믺훆뷸탐붻틗웤럑폃룼뗍ꎻ쫐뎡붻틗럑폃뫍웳튵쓚늿탐헾ퟩ횯럑폃볤뗄욽뫢맘쾵뻶뚨쇋웳튵뫍쫐뎡뗄뇟뷧ꆣ웳튵춨맽ퟝ쿲릺늢뿉틔붫풭쿈뗄쫐뎡싲싴맘쾵뇤캪웳튵쓚늿뗄탐헾뗷늦맘쾵ꎬ듓뛸붵뗍붻틗럑폃ꆣ죧맻붵뗍뗄쫐뎡붻틗럑폃듳폚퓶볓뗄탐헾ퟩ횯럑폃ꎬ쓇쎴릺늢퓚뺭볃짏뻍쫇뿉탐뗄ꆣ뿆쮹쫗듎냑뛔닺튵ퟩ횯샭싛뗄퇐뺿평슢뛏뷇뛈틆떽킧싊뷇뛈ꆣ ퟷ캪붫뿆쮹붻틗럑폃룅쓮췆쿲ꆰ뿉닙ퟷ닣쏦ꆱ뗄뺭볃톧볒ꎬ췾솮쒷즭ꎨWilliamsonꎬ1971ꎩ듓ꆰ닺뗄폃탔ꆱ뫍ꆰퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯ꆱ뷇뛈뛔붻틗럑폃뗄뻶뚨ퟶ돶쇋뷢쫍ꆣ쯻뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄퇐뺿쪼폚1971쓪뗄싛컄ꆶ짺닺뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯ꎺ쫐뎡쪧쇩뗄뾼달ꆷꆣ튻쿮붻틗뿉틔퓚쫐뎡훐뷸탐ꎬ튲뿉틔퓚웳튵훐뷸탐ꎬ떫쫇죎뫎튻훖훎샭뷡릹랢짺ퟷ폃쪱뚼폐튻뚨뗄훎샭돉놾ꎬ훎샭돉놾뗄듳킡좡뻶폚붻틗뗄죽룶튪쯘쳘헷ꎺ닺폃탔ꆢ늻좷뚨탔틔벰붻틗훘뢴뗄욵싊ꆣ죧맻쫇춨폃닺ꎬ컞싛붻틗욵싊뗄듳킡ꎬ쿠욥엤뗄뿏뚨쫇쫐뎡맦훆뷡릹ꎬ헢쪱랢짺뗄쫇맅뗤웵풼맘쾵ꎻ죧맻붻틗욵싊뷏뗍ꎬ횻랢짺쫽듎ꎬ닺쫇믬뫏탔뗄믲헟쫇폃탔뗄ꎬ쿠욥엤뗄펦룃쫇붻틗쮫랽퓙볓짏뗚죽랽닎폫뗄죽랽맦훆뷡릹ꎬ헢쪱랢짺뗄쫇탂맅뗤웵풼맘쾵ꎻ죧맻붻틗욵싊뷏룟ꎬ붻틗뺭뎣훘뢴랢짺ꎬ쟒닺쫇럇춨폃탔뗄ꎬ헢쪱랢짺뗄쫇맘쾵탍뗞풼믮뚯ꆣ볲떥뗄쮵ꎬ20
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 웳튵뗄돶쿖퓲쫇평폚늻좷뚨탔듳ꆢ붻틗욵싊룟뫍닺폃돌뛈룟뗄뷡맻ꆣ쯻횸돶ꎬ웳튵쫇폃틔뷚풼붻틗럑폃뗄튻훖붻틗쒣쪽ꎬꆰ닺뗄폃탔ꆱ쫇붻틗럑폃뗄훷튪틲쯘ꎬ늢틔듋살쳖싛튻룶웳튵쫇펦룃ꆰ싲뷸ꆱ뮹쫇ꆰ훆퓬ꆱ돶튻훖쳘쫢뗄춶죫ꎬ벴ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯탐캪ꆣ죧맻붻틗훐냼몬튻훖맘쾵뗄폃탔닺ꎬ퓲쫂쿈뗄뺺헹믡놻쫂뫳뗄슢뛏쯹좡듺ꎬ듓뛸떼훂붫폃탔닺뗄ힼퟢ뷰햼캪벺폐뗄ꆰ믺믡훷틥ꆱ탐캪ꆣ헢훖믺믡훷틥탐캪쪹뗃뫏풼쮫랽쿠맘뗄폃탔춶늻쓜듯떽ퟮ폅ꎬ늢쟒쪹뫏풼뗄첸에뫍횴탐뇤뗃룼캪훘튪ꎬ폃쫐뎡좥뒦샭ퟝ쿲맘쾵뗄붻틗럑폃뻍믡짏짽ꆣ틲듋ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뿉폃쳦듺쿖믵쫐뎡틔뷚풼붻틗럑폃ꆣ퓚쏦쇙뷏룟뗄닺폃탔뫍믺믡훷틥탐캪랢짺뗄뿉쓜탔뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ탨튪쒳훖훐볤닺욷춶죫뗄웳튵쟣쿲폚붫췢릺뇤캪웳튵쓚늿짺닺ꎬ벴뛔짺닺짏폎닺욷뗄웳튵쪵쪩릺늢ꆣ췾솮쒷즭뗄샭싛훘뗣잿뗷쇋닺폃탔뛔훎샭믺훆톡퓱뗄쿔훸펰쿬ꎬ죏캪웳튵볈늻쫇떥뒿ힷ쟳훎샭돉놾ퟮ킡뮯ꎬ튲늻쫇짺닺돉놾ퟮ킡뮯ꎬ뛸쫇튪룹뻝닺폃탔뗄돌뛈좷뚨쿠펦뗄훎샭뷡릹ꆣ볙뚨듦퓚쒳룶닺폃탔뗄돌뛈쪹뗃쓚늿훎샭뫍쫐뎡훎샭쫇컞닮틬뗄ꎬ떱폃탔돌뛈뎬맽룃쇙뷧뗣ꎬ뻍믡폕훂쪵쪩폃쓚늿훎샭좡듺쫐뎡훎샭ꆣ 뿋삳틲ꆢ뿋샍뢣뗂뫍났뛻웦낲ꎨKleinꎬCraw Ford and Alchianꎬ1978ꎩ튲쿠볌죏캪ꎬퟝ쿲늢릺쫇뇜쏢믺믡훷틥헟햼폐폃탔닺ힼퟢ뗄뫃냬램ꆣꆰ뿉햼폃탔폃ힼퟢ풽뗍ꎬ붻틗헟틀삵웵풼맘쾵뛸늻쫇릲춬쯹폐뗄뿉쓜탔풽듳ꆣ랴횮ꎬ평릲춬믲솪뫏쯹폐뗄튻쳥뮯뗄뿉쓜탔풽듳ꎬ닺쯹냼몬뗄뿉햼폃탔폃ힼퟢ뻍풽룟ꆣꆱ춬쪱ꎬ평폚듦퓚ퟅ뗄믺믡훷틥탐캪뿉쓜믡ퟨ낭웵풼뗄쪵쿖ꎬ듓뛸웈쪹튻랽떱쫂죋뷸탐ퟝ쿲늢릺믲뷸탐튻쳥뮯랢햹ꆣ 룱싞쮹싼뫍맾쳘ꎨGrossman and Hartꎬ1986ꎩ폖뷸튻늽늹돤뫍랢햹쇋짏쫶샭싛ꎬ횸돶뛔붻틗럑폃웰뻶뚨ퟷ폃뗄쫇뫏풼뗄늻췪놸탔ꆣ췪놸뗄뫏풼뿉틔쿻돽믺믡훷틥탐캪ꎬ떫쿖쪵뺭볃훐돤싺쇋늻좷뚨탔ꎬ늢쟒쏷컺쯹폐좨틦뗄돉놾맽룟ꎬ쯹틔뫏풼쫇늻뿉쓜췪놸뗄ꆣ웳튵돶쿖뗄풭틲퓚폚ꎬ떱뫏풼늻췪놸쪱ꎬퟝ쿲늢릺믲튻쳥뮯쓜릻쿻돽믲복짙평폚닺폃탔쯹퓬돉뗄믺믡훷틥탐캪ꎬ웳튵쪵볊짏쫇솬탸짺닺맽돌횮볤늻췪놸뗄뫏풼쯹떼훂뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯쪵쳥ꆣ 솽훖샭싛뗄뇈뷏 틔짏닻쫶뗄솽훖샭싛톧엉퇐뺿ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄뷇뛈뫍돶랢뗣쫇늻춬뗄ꆣ 닺튵ퟩ횯톧엉퇏룱ퟱ톭탂맅뗤뺭볃톧뗄샭싛뿲볜볙짨ꎬ햾퓚웳튵췢늿ꎬ맛달쫐뎡뷡릹뫍쫐뎡벨킧ꎬ맘힢슢뛏ꆢ뺺헹뗈컊쳢뛔폚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뻶닟뗄펰쿬ꎬ죏캪웳튵퓚뾼싇ퟔ훆뮹쫇췢릺뗄뻶닟쪱훷튪믹폚짺닺돉놾뫍뺭볃킧싊ꆣ퓚춬튻닺튵훐ꎬ평폚웳튵뻟폐늻춬뗄짺닺벼쫵ꆢ짺닺튪쯘?뢳뫍뺺헹뮷뺳ꎬ듓뛸떼훂짺닺돉놾뗄늻춬ꎬ웳튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈튲믡폐쯹늻춬ꎬ쯼붫웳튵뾴돉풤쿈룸뚨뗄짺닺떥캻ꎬ맘탄웳튵튻쳥뮯탐캪뛔쫐뎡뷡릹ꆢ쫐뎡벨킧뗄펰쿬ꎬ떫21
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 쫇뫶싔쇋웳튵폫쫐뎡볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ 훆뛈뺭볃톧엉뗄붻틗럑폃샭싛틔웳튵ퟔ짭캪퇐뺿뛔쿳ꎬퟅ퇛폚쫐뎡믺훆뗄좱쿝ꎬퟅ훘닻쫶쇋죋쏇캪쪲쎴믡틔웳튵듺쳦쫐뎡살엤훃풴ꎺ평폚죋뗄폐쿞샭탔뫍믺믡훷틥쟣쿲뗄듦퓚ꎬ쪹뗃캬돖쫐뎡훐붻틗훷쳥횮볤웵풼맘쾵뗄돉놾뿉쓜룟폚뎧짌쓚늿뗄ퟩ횯돉놾ꎬ뎧짌뛔붻틗쮫랽뗄웵풼풽쓑뿘훆ꎬ퓲풽쟣쿲튻쳥뮯ꆣ훆뛈뺭볃톧엉뮹닻쫶쇋웳튵뗄뷧쿞ꎬ뛔폚닺튵ퟩ횯샭싛뫍웳튵햽싔샭싛뚼폐훘튪뗄뷨본틢틥ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ붻틗럑폃늢럇뻶뚨웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯쮮욽뗄캨튻틲쯘ꎬ붻틗럑폃샭싛뫶쫓쇋웳튵닺욷뗄탨쟳뫍볛룱뗈틲쯘뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ뫶싔쇋늻춬웳튵닺욷짺닺돉놾뗄닮틬ꆣ뛸헢튻뗣좱쿝헽뫃뿉틔평닺튵ퟩ횯톧엉뗄샭싛쯹쏖늹ꆣ 뿉볻ꎬ뺡맜솽훖샭싛듦퓚ퟅ쟸뇰ꎬ춬쪱헢솽훖샭싛폖쫇뮥늹뗄ꆣ틲듋ꎬ퓚럖컶ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄뚯틲쪱ꎬ뿉틔뷡뫏헢솽랽쏦뗄샭싛ꎬ듓웳튵킧싊뫍붻틗럑폃솽룶랽쏦뷢쫍ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄뻶뚨틲쯘ꆣ튻랽쏦ꎬ짺닺벼쫵뻶뚨쇋맦쒣뺭볃뫍랶캧뺭볃ꎬ뷸뛸뻶뚨웳튵짺닺돉놾뗄닮틬ꎻ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ닺폃탔뻶뚨쇋뿉햼폃탔ힼퟢ뗄룟뗍ꎬ뷸뛸뻶뚨붻틗돉놾뗄닮틬ꎬ뛾헟릲춬뻶뚨쇋웳튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯쮮욽ꆣ ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄닢뛈 ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯닢뛈샭싛쫇뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈뗄쪵횤럖컶샭싛ꎬ탭뛠톧헟쫔춼춨맽뛠훖랽램살뷢뻶ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄닢뛈컊쳢ꎬ떫쫇ꆰ닢솿뗄삧쓑컞틉쫇ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯좱랦쾵춳퇐뺿뗄풭틲횮튻ꆱꎨHay and Morrisꎬ1991ꎩꆣ쒿잰맘폚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄닢뛈샭싛훷튪냼삨틔쿂컥훖ꎺ 춶죫닺돶뇭램ꎨI/Oꎩ 춶죫닺돶뇭틔뻘헳뗄탎쪽쏨쫶맺쏱뺭볃룷늿쏅퓚튻뚨쪱웚ꎨ춨뎣캪튻쓪ꎩ짺닺훐뗄춶죫살풴뫍닺돶쪹폃좥쿲ꎬ듓뛸뷒쪾맺쏱뺭볃룷늿쏅횮볤쿠뮥틀듦뫍쿠뮥훆풼뗄쫽솿맘쾵ꆣ쏀맺펡뗘낲쓉듳톧뗄Maddiganꎨ1981ꎩ뷌쫚믹폚삳낺쳨럲뗄춶죫닺돶쒣탍쳡돶쇋삳낺쳨럲횸쫽ꎨVICꎩꆣ춶죫닺돶쒣탍뷒쪾쇋닺튵볤뗄쿠뮥춶죫폫럖엤쇷쿲뗄맘쾵ꎬ삳낺쳨럲횸쫽샻폃닺튵볤뗄헢훖춶죫닺돶쾵쫽살뫢솿웳튵튵컱볤뗄쓚늿춶죫맘쾵ꎬ듓뛸췆쯣돶웳튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈ꆣ삳낺쳨럲횸쫽늢늻맘힢웳튵룷튵컱볤뗄뻟쳥춶죫쫽솿ꎬ뛸쫇춨맽닺튵룷튵컱횮볤욽뻹뗄춶죫닺돶맘쾵살췆쯣웳튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈ꆣ헢쪵볊짏쫇닉폃쇋뚨탔뗄랽램살퇐뺿웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯탐캪ꆣ쯼뗄좱쿝퓚폚횻쓜쫊폃폚닢뛈퓚쒳튻쪱웚맺쓚닺튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄ퟜ쳥쟷쫆ꎬ뛸늻쓜닢뛈쒳룶뎧짌뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈ꆣ Caves 뫍Bradburdꎨ1988ꎩ쳡돶쇋튻훖샠쯆뗄횸쫽닢솿잰쿲튻쳥뮯ꎺ춨맽쒳튻닺튵퓚I/O 뇭쪹폃쾵쫽뗄좨훘볓ퟜꎬ볆쯣돶쫛떽늻춬폃뮧닺튵뗄믡볆볓ퟜ뗄뇈샽ꆣ헢훖랽램쯤좻벯22
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 훐랴펳쇋헢튻닺튵훐뗄웳튵폐뛠짙튲퓚쎿룶폃뮧웳튵훐짺닺ꎬ떫죔좻듦퓚춶죫닺돶쒣탍뗄튻킩좱쿝ꎬ쟒횻뫢솿쇋잰쿲튻쳥뮯ꎬ캴뛔뫳쿲튻쳥뮯ퟶ돶닢뛈ꆣ Davis-Morris 횸쫽램 Davis뫍Morrisꎨ1995ꎩ퓚Maddigan퇐뺿랽램뗄믹뒡짏붨솢쇋튻훖탂뗄퓋폃I/O뇭살볆쯣ퟝ쿲뛈뗄횸쫽ꎬ헢훖횸쫽볈뿉틔볆쯣닺튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈튲뿉틔볆쯣뎧짌뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈ꆣ내헕뿆쮹ꎭ췾솮쒷쮹랶쪽ꎬ죏캪ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄믹뒡쫇춨맽떥룶웳튵뷸탐쓚늿뮯ퟩ횯뮹쫇췢늿뮯ퟩ횯뗄뻶닟살쪵쿖ꎬ틲듋ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈뗄쏴룐뛈펦랴펳닺돶뗄쓚늿뎧짌쇷뚯뗄쫽솿뫍췢늿쿺쫛뗄쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ헢훖닢솿랽램쫇평Perryꎨ1989ꎩ쫗쿈쳡돶뗄ꎬ떫쫇쯻춬쪱튲횸돶ꎺꆰ퓚뎧짌쓚늿뫍췢늿붻틗훐믱뗃ힼ좷뗄탅쾢ퟜ쫇쪮럖삧쓑뗄ꆣꆰ Davis-Morris횸쫽캪뇜쏢짏쫶삧쓑닉좡쇋샭싛짏듖닚튻뗣떫쫇룼쫊폃뗄뻟쳥닺튵럖컶뗄랽램ꆣDavis-Morris횸쫽쫇횸ꎬ퓚평N룶뎧짌뫍R룶닺튵릹돉뗄뺭볃쳥훐ꎨ믲삩햹떽늿쏅ꎩꎬ뎧짌I쓚늿뗄튻쳥뮯돌뛈뿉틔뚨틥캪쯼퓚룷닺튵볤뗄릤뎧뗄쇷솿폫ퟜ쿺솿뗄뇈횵ꆣDavis-Morris횸쫽뗄랶캧퓚0떽1횮잰ꎬ쟒쫽횵풽듳뇭쪾ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈풽룟ꆣ쯤좻늻춬닺튵볤웳튵쓚늿뗄닺욷쇷뚯쫽뻝뫜짙릫늼ꎬ떫뻸듳뛠쫽맺볒믡뚨웚릫늼놾맺뗄I/O뇭살쮵쏷닺튵볤뗄닺욷쇷솿ꎬ횻튪룹뻝웳튵뗄뺭펪랶캧햼룷닺튵뗄쫐뎡럝뛮뻍쓜뷨훺I/O뇭볆쯣돶쯼쪵볊뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯횸쫽ꆣ헢훖랽램볆쯣볲떥ꎬ쫽뻝튲뇈뷏뫃쫕벯ꎬ쯹틔쿖퓚헢훖랽램헽퓚뗃떽맣랺뗄펦폃ꆣ떫컒맺릫늼뗄I/O뇭횻럖쇐웟듳샠닺튵ꎬ뫜뛠웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈뗄쫽뻝늻쓜뷨폃I/O뇭뗃떽ꎬ쯹틔헢훖횸쫽쒿잰퓚컒맺쫊폃탔늻잿ꆣ 퓶볓횵횸쫽램ꎨVASꎩ 평Adelmanꎨ1955ꎩ쳡돶뗄퓶볓횵횸쫽램ꎨVASꎩ쫇ퟮ퓧놻맣랺쪹폃뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯닢뛈랽램ꎬ룪쳘ꎨGortꎬ1962ꎩꎬ쓍즭ꎨNelsonꎬ1963ꎩꎬ삭뢣뛻ꎨLafferꎬ1969ꎩ뗈뚼붨틩쪹폃헢튻횸뇪ꆣVAS뗄샭싛믹뒡쫇ꎺ떱웳튵쪵쪩뫳쿲튻쳥뮯쪱믡뛔짏폎뎧짌닺짺탨쟳ꎬ웳튵쪵쪩잰쿲튻쳥뮯쪱믡뛔쿂폎뎧짌닺짺탨쟳ꎬ죴냑웳튵쓚늿뗄붻틗삩듳떽뎧짌횮볤ꎬ퓲VAS횵뻍믡퓶볓ꆣ튲벴쫇쮵뛔폚춬튻닺욷살쮵ꎬퟝ쿲짺닺솴풽뎤ꎬ뢽볓횵뻍풽룟ꆣ퓶볓횵횸쫽VAS뗄볆쯣릫쪽쫇ꎺ 퓶볓횵쿺쫛뛮ꎭ닉릺뛮VAS==쿺쫛뛮쿺쫛뛮 떫쫇VAS튲듦퓚튻킩좱쿝ꎺ쫗쿈ꎬ헢룶횸뇪냼몬쇋뺻샻죳뗄틲쯘ꎬ헢퇹돽쇋ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄쪵볊쮮욽췢ꎬ룷훖살풴뗄펯샻쓜솦뗄쳡룟튲믡떼훂뢽볓횵뗄퓶뎤ꎬ벴퓶볓횵횸뇪믡쫜떽웳튵펯샻쓜솦뫍닺튵펯샻쓜솦뗄펰쿬ꆣ캪쇋뷢뻶헢룶컊쳢ꎬSPIꎨ쏀맺햽싔볆뮮킭믡ꎩ퓚붨23
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 솢PIMS쫽뻝뿢쪱뛔헢튻횸뇪뷸탐쇋탞헽ꎬ퓚퓶볓횵뫍쿺쫛뛮훐뿛돽웳튵뗄뺻샻죳ꎬ좻뫳볓짏룹뻝쯹폐닺튵욽뻹춶쫕틦싊볆쯣돶뗄헽뎣샻죳ꎨ냍퓳뛻ꎬ2000ꎩꎺ 퓶볓횵−샻죳+헽뎣샻죳VAS=쿺쫛뛮−샻죳+헽뎣샻죳 웤듎ꎬVAS뗄듳킡믡쫜떽닺튵솴늻춬뷗뛎쳘헷뗄펰쿬ꆣ샽죧퓚쿂폎닺튵풽뾿뷼ퟮ훕쿻럑헟뗄뮷뷚ꎬ평폚춶죫컯뷏짙ꎬ틲듋VAS 믡욫듳ꎻ뛸퓚닺튵솴뗄짏폎ꎬ평폚춶죫컯햼쿺쫛뗄뇈훘뷏듳ꎬ틲뛸VAS믡욫뗍ꎨMaddiganꎬ1981ꎩꆣ 뚨탔움볛램 뚨탔움볛램ꎨVMIꎩꎨRachel Davisꎬ1992ꎻJackie Krafftꎬ2003ꎩ쫇튻훖볲떥뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯닢뛈랽램ꎬ쯼틔웳튵퓚닺튵솴훐쯹뺭펪뗄닺튵뮷뷚뗄룶쫽살뫢솿웳튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈ꎬ웳튵짦벰뗄닺튵뮷뷚풽뛠ꎬ웤ퟝ쿲뛈풽룟ꆣ듓놾훊짏뾴ꎬ뚨탔움볛램쫇춶죫닺돶뇭램뗄튻훖볲뮯쯣램ꆣ뚨탔움볛램뗄폅뗣퓚폚닙ퟷ볲떥ꎬ탅쾢뗄뿉믱좡탔잿ꆣ웤늻ퟣ횮뒦퓚폚횸뇪맽폚듖싔ꎬ퓚춬튻닺튵훐ꎬ벴쪹햼폐닺튵뮷뷚쫽쿠춬뗄솽룶뎧짌ꎬ쯼쏇뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄돌뛈튲뿉쓜쫇늻춬뗄ꎬ뚨탔움볛램좴컞램랴펳헢훖쟩뿶ꆣ웤듎ꎬ평폚늻춬닺튵뗄닺튵솴뎤뛈늻춬ꎬ듋랽램튲늻쫊뫏폚닺튵솴볤뗄뇈뷏ꆣ 튵컱좨훘횸쫽램ꎨBSIꎩ 튵컱좨훘횸쫽램쫇평슳쎷뛻쳘ꎨRumeltꎬ1974ꎩ쳡돶뗄ꎬ쯼닉폃웳튵ퟝ쿲닺튵솴훐쯹폐닺욷햼웳튵ퟜ닺욷횮뫍살뫢솿ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈ꆣ헢튻횸쫽뗄볆쯣뇈뷏볲떥ꎬ떫듦퓚뷏듳컊쳢ꎺ튵컱좨훘횸쫽볈뫢솿쇋웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈ꎬ튲뫢솿쇋뫡쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈ꆣ죴웳튵횻짺닺튻훖닺욷뗄뮰ꎬ쓇쎴내헢튻횸쫽ꎬ룃웳튵뗄ퟝ쿲뛈캪1ꎬ벴쯹폐뗄춶죫컯뚼평웳튵ퟔ탐짺닺ꎬ헢쿔좻늻첫뫏샭ꆣ틲듋튵컱좨훘횸쫽늻쫇튻룶뫃뗄닢뛈횸뇪ꆣ ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯폫웳튵벨킧 맾런듳톧뗄냍퓳뛻뷌쫚퓚쯻뗄ꆶ햽싔폫벨킧ꆪꆪPIMS풭퓲ꆷ튻쫩훐ꎬ믹폚뛔PIMSꎨProfit Impact of Market Strategiesꎩ쫽뻝뿢뗄쪵횤럖컶죏캪ꎬ뛔폚쫐뎡럝뛮뷏킡뗄웳튵ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈폫춶쫕틦싊돉뢺쿠맘맘쾵ꎻ뛸뛔폚쫐뎡럝뛮뒦폚욽뻹믲룟폚욽뻹쮮욽쪱ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯폫ROI뗄맘쾵돊쿖돶튻쳵U탍쟺쿟ꎬ벴ퟝ쿲뛈뫜뗍믲뫜룟쪱ꎬ웳튵벨킧믡뷏룟ꎬ뛸ퟝ쿲뛈훐뗈쪱ꎬ벨킧퓲뷏닮ꆣ듋췢ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄ퟷ폃폫춶쏜뛈쿠맘ꎬ춶쏜뛈뗍뗄튵컱ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯믡듸살뷏룟뗄ROIꎬ뛸춶쏜뛈룟뗄튵컱ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯믡쪹웳튵뗄ROI쿂붵ꆣퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뛔춶쫕틦뗄펰쿬좡뻶폚웳튵쯹뒦뗄탎쫆ꎬ뛸늻쫇쪵쪩쯹탨뗄돉놾ꎨ냍퓳뛻ꎬ2000쓪ꎩꆣ 24
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 쏀맺Mercer릫쮾뗄퇇뗂샯낲뗈죋퓚ꆶ랢쿖샻죳쟸ꆷ튻쫩훐ꎬퟜ뷡돶웳튵펯샻뗄22훖쒣쪽ꎬ쎿튻훖쒣쪽듺뇭ퟅ튻훖햽싔ꎬ웤훐횮튻쫇ꆰ볛횵솴뚨캻쒣쪽ꆱꆣ훷튪쮼쿫쫇ꎺ퓚탭뛠닺튵ꎬ샻죳벯훐퓚볛횵솴뗄쒳킩뮷뷚ꎬ뛸웤쯻뮷뷚샻죳벫짙ꎬ죧퓚볆쯣믺튵ꎬ샻죳벯훐퓚캢뒦샭웷뫍죭볾쇬폲ꎻ퓚뮯릤튵ꎬ샻죳벯훐퓚짺닺쇬폲뛸늻쫇쿺쫛쇬폲ꎻ퓚쳬좻웸튵ꎬ샻죳벯훐폚뾪닉뫍럖쿺뮷뷚ꎻ퓚웻뎵튵ꎬ샻죳벯훐퓚뷰죚럾컱ꆢ듻뿮떣놣뗈쿂폎튵컱ꎬ뛸늻쫇ퟜힰ믲쿺쫛ꎬ뗈뗈ꆣ내헕헢튻쒣쪽ꎬ냑튵컱벯훐퓚쒳킩뮷뷚뿉틔믱뗃룼룟뗄믘놨ꎨ퇇뗂샯낲ꎬ2003쓪ꎩꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄볛횵믡쫓튵컱쯹뒦볛횵솴뗄캻훃뛸폐쯹늻춬ꆣ 횮뫳뛔폚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯폫벨킧뗄맘쾵퇐뺿뛠쫇톡퓱튻룶쳘뚨닺튵살ퟶ쪵횤럖컶ꎬPeyrefitte뫍Goldenꎨ2004ꎩ뛔쏀맺볆쯣믺펲볾닺튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔폫벨킧뗄맘쾵뷸탐볬퇩ꎬ쯻쏇듓릫쮾뫋탄쓜솦샭싛돶랢ꎬ볙짨ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔볛횵뗄뻶뚨틲ퟓ쫇튻쳥뮯쫇럱뿧풽닺튵솴짺닺뷗뛎ꎬ벴퓚쒳닺튵솴뮷뷚쓚늿뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔폫벨킧헽쿠맘ꎻ뛸뿧풽닺튵솴뷗뛎뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔퓲폫벨킧뢺쿠맘ꆣ샻폃쏀맺50볒볆쯣믺펲볾훆퓬짌뗄쪵횤쫽뻝뗃떽뗄뷡맻폫볙짨쿠좥짵풶ꎺ닺튵솴뮷뷚쓚늿뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔폫벨킧뢺쿠맘ꎻ뛸뿧풽닺튵솴뷗뛎뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔퓲폫벨킧늻쿠맘ꆣ쯻쏇뛔듋뗄뷢쫍쫇닺튵솴뮷뷚쓚늿뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔뗄뫃뒦뿉쓜놻뺭펪룼듳볛횵퓶횵뷗뛎뗄돉놾쯹뗖쿻ꆣ ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄쪵횤퇐뺿 헫뛔닺튵ퟩ횯톧엉뫍훆뛈뺭볃톧엉쳡돶뗄맛뗣ꎬ폐뫜뛠뗄톧헟퓚늻춬뗄닺튵훐뷸탐쇋쪵횤퇐뺿ꎬ뛔쯻쏇뗄맛뗣뷸탐퇩횤ꆣ Tucker뫍Wilderꎨ1977ꎩ뛔Stiglerꎨ1851ꎩ뗄짺쏼훜웚쮵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뻶닟뗄펰쿬ퟶ쇋쿨쪵뗄퇐뺿ꆣ쯻쏇톡좡쇋1954쓪훁1972쓪볤쏀맺뗄훆퓬튵ퟷ캪퇐뺿뛔쿳ꎬ웤훐냼삨쇋377룶쯄벶탐튵ퟜ릲900뛠볒훆퓬웳튵ꎬ퓚탐튵뫍웳튵솽룶닣쏦짏뛔짺쏼훜웚쮵뷸탐쇋쪵횤볬퇩ꆣ퇐뺿뷡맻뇭쏷ꎬ퓚탐튵닣쏦짏ꎬ평폚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄닢뛈횸뇪믡쫜떽탐튵헻쳥펯샻뫍쮰쫕헾닟뗄펰쿬ꎬ짺쏼훜웚쮵쎻폐쿔쿖돶폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뻶닟뗄쏷쿔쿠맘맘쾵ꎻ뛸퓚웳튵닣쏦짏ꎬ듋듎쪵횤볬퇩퇩횤쇋짺쏼훜웚쮵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뻶닟뗄펰쿬췪좫럻뫏Stiglerꎨ1951ꎩ뗄볙짨ꆣ Kilmerꎨ1986ꎩ뛔쏀맺얩튵쪳욷탐튵뗄퇐뺿헒돶쇋펰쿬웤ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뻶닟뗄벸룶훘튪틲쯘ꎬ냼삨쫐뎡벯훐뛈ꆢ뷰쏜벯뛈ꆢ웳튵뗄춶죫/닺돶맦쒣뫍캴살뗄탨쟳ꎬ늢횸돶퓚캴살뗄쪮쓪쏀맺뗄얩튵쪳욷탐튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈붫퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏퓶볓ꆣ 뮹폐톧헟뛔붻틗럑폃쮵폚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뻶닟뗄펰쿬뷸탐쇋퇐뺿ꆣOhanianꎨ1992ꎩ퓚뛔1900쓪떽1940쓪볤쏀맺횽붬뫍퓬횽탐튵뗄쪵횤퇐뺿훐ꎬ틔탩쓢뇤솿뫍솬탸뇤솿솽훖뇤솿ퟷ캪퓬25
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 횽웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄닢뛈ꎬ럖뇰퓋폃Logit Regression뫍Tobit Regression뛔횽붬뫍퓬횽탐튵뗄쫐뎡벯훐뛈벰웳튵맦쒣뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뻶닟뗄펰쿬뷸탐쇋쪵횤럖컶ꆣ퇐뺿뷡맻횧돖쇋ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄붻틗럑폃쮵ꎺ1900떽1940쓪볤쏀맺횽붬뫍퓬횽탐튵뗄쫐뎡벯훐뛈폫웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯헽쿲쿠맘ꎬ쫐뎡벯훐뛈풽룟ꎬ웳튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뚯믺/돌뛈풽듳ꆣ Nor뫍Abdullahꎨ2005ꎩ틔십살컷퇇뗄훆퓬튵캪퇐뺿퇹놾ꎬ뛔Stiglerꎨ1955ꎩ뫍Levyꎨ1984ꎩ쳡돶뗄붻틗럑폃뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뻶닟뗄펰쿬볙짨뷸탐쇋쪵횤퇐뺿ꆣ쯻쏇틔1985훁1993쓪볤십살컷퇇훆퓬튵훐뗄129룶ퟓ닺튵캪퇐뺿뛔쿳ꎬ폃퓶볓횵/쿺쫛쫕죫뇈싊ퟷ캪ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯닢뛈ꎬ퇩횤쇋닺튵훐웳튵뗄욽뻹맦쒣ꆢ닺튵탨쟳뗄퓶뎤뫍닺튵벯훐뛈폫닺튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뻶닟뗄맘쾵ꆣ뗃돶뷡싛닺튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈폫닺튵퓶뎤탨쟳뫍닺튵벯훐뛈헽쿲쿠맘ꎬ폫웳튵맦쒣컞쏷쿔쿠맘맘쾵ꎬ뛔Stiglerꎨ1995ꎩ뫍Levyꎨ1984ꎩ뗄볙쮵쳡릩쇋횧돖ꆣ 뷼쓪살ꎬ퓚맺췢샭싛뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ컒맺뗄뫜뛠톧헟튲헫뛔컒맺뗄닺튵랢햹쟩뿶ꎬ뛔펰쿬ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뻶닟뗄틲쯘뷸탐쇋쪵횤퇐뺿ꆣ 훜쟚ꎨ2002ꎩ틔붭쯕훆퓬튵뗄16룶닺튵뫍룷닺튵잰5쏻뗄80룶웳튵ퟷ캪퇹놾ꎬ틔웳튵쫐뎡벯훐뛈CR5캪ퟔ뇤솿ꎬDavis-Morrisꎨ1995ꎩ횸쫽캪ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯닢뛈ꎬ볬퇩쇋ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯쟷쫆폫웳튵쫐뎡벯훐뛈뗄맘쾵ꆣ볬퇩뷡맻뇭쏷ꎺ웳튵쫐뎡벯훐뛈풽룟ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈풽룟ꎬ튲뻍쫇쮵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈풽룟뗄웳튵뗄쫐뎡뿘훆솦풽잿ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈폫쫐뎡뿘훆솦헽쿠맘ꆣ 쇵솢솦ꎨ2004ꎩ틔컒맺2002쓪틔잰짏쫐뗄웻뎵웳튵캪뛔쿳ꎬ퇐뺿쇋컒맺웻뎵탐튵닺폃탔뫍웳튵맦쒣뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뻶닟뗄펰쿬ꎬ뗃돶뷡싛ꎺ컒맺헻뎵훆퓬웳튵뗄웳튵맦쒣뫍닺폃탔폫웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈헽쿲쿠맘ꎬ웳튵맦쒣풽듳ꆢ닺폃탔풽잿ꎬ웳튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈풽듳ꆣ 췵ퟚ쪤ꎨ2004ꎩ뷨훺훆뛈뺭볃톧뗄맛뗣뛔웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔뷸탐쇋럖컶ꎬ쯻죏캪붻틗럑폃뫍ퟩ횯럑폃뗄뺭볃뇈뷏쫇펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뻶닟뗄맘볼틲쯘ꎬ춬쪱웳튵튲뇘탫냑뮻럑폃볓틔뾼싇ꎬ퓚쳘뚨뗄웳튵햽싔뮷뺳훐ꎬ횻폐죽헟횮뫍ퟮ킡뗄햽싔톡퓱닅쫇웳튵뗄샭탔톡퓱ꆣ 퇐뺿컄쿗움쫶 맺쓚쪵컯웚좨퇐뺿틑뺭짮죫떽뺭볃짺믮뗄룷룶쇬폲ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ쪵컯웚좨퓚룷룶쇬폲뗄퇐뺿틑뺭듓ퟮ돵뗄볲떥쳗폃B-S웚좨뚨볛릫쪽뫍뛾쿮웚좨뚨볛쒣탍폚쪵컯닺맽뛉떽뛠뷗뛎ꆢ26
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 뢴뫏쪵컯웚좨쒣탍ꎬ뷸뛸짮죫떽뾪쪼뾼싇뛠룶춶헟횮볤쿠뮥ퟷ폃뗄웚좨늩?쒣탍뫍늻췪좫탅쾢쿂뗄쪵컯웚좨샭싛ꆣ 떫쫇햽싔웚좨ퟷ캪튻룶탂탋뗄뿎쳢ꎬ뺡맜뷼쓪살뾪쪼쫜떽톧쫵뷧뫍웳튵뷧뗄웕뇩맘힢ꎬ쒿잰맺쓚췢뛔햽싔웚좨뗄퇐뺿뮹좱랦쾵춳췪헻뗄럖컶뿲볜ꎬ쿖폐뗄퇐뺿뛠쫇듓떥튻뗄뷇뛈퇐뺿쒳샠햽싔웚좨뛔웳튵햽싔뗄펰쿬ꎬ쟒붫햽싔웚좨뗄퇐뺿벯훐퓚쒳튻킩쳘뚨닺튵훐ꎬ뗃돶뗄뷡싛뇈뷏쇣즢욬쏦ꆣ뛸퓚맺쓚뛔햽싔웚좨뷸탐쪵횤퇐뺿뗄컄쿗뻍룼볓쾡짙ꎬ웤훐뇈뷏뻟듺뇭탔뗄뻍쫇믆죊?ꎨ2007ꎩ뗄퇐뺿ꆣ떫평폚믆죊?뗄쪵횤퇐뺿훐늢캴뛔햽싔웚좨뷸탐럖샠퇐뺿ꎬ쟒퇹놾쫽쒿욫킡ꎬ폐뿉쓜떼훂뷡맻폫쪵볊쟩뿶폐쯹욫닮ꆣ틲듋ꎬ캪쇋뷸튻늽좷뚨햽싔웚좨뛔컒맺웳튵햽싔맜샭뗄펰쿬뫍ퟷ폃ꎬ놾컄쓢닉폃뷏듳뗄퇹놾쫽솿ꎬ춨맽닺튵쓚퇐뺿뫍뿧닺튵퇐뺿톰헒쯄훖늻춬샠탍뗄햽싔웚좨뛔쒳튻샠햽싔뗄펰쿬ꆣ 퓚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄퇐뺿랽쏦ꎬ쒿잰맺쓚췢뗄퇐뺿훷튪벯훐퓚뛔닺튵ퟩ횯톧엉맛뗣뫍훆뛈뺭볃톧맛뗣뗄퇐뺿짏ꆣ퓚쪵횤퇐뺿랽쏦ꎬ훚뛠톧헟튲뛠쫇듓틔짏솽훖샭싛ퟅ쫖뷸탐퇐뺿ꆣ듳늿럖컷랽랢듯맺볒뗄쪵횤퇐뺿뷡싛뚼쫇횧돖훆뛈뺭볃톧뗄붻틗럑폃쮵뗄ꎬ뛸뛔폚닺튵ퟩ횯샭싛뗄맦뇜늻좷뚨쮵뫍짺쏼훜웚쮵ꎬ쪵횤퇐뺿뗄뷡맻늢늻튻훂ꆣ뛔랢햹훐맺볒뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뻶닟펰쿬틲쯘뗄쪵횤퇐뺿컄쿗럇뎣짙ꎬ쒿잰컒맺틑폐뗄쿠맘쪵횤퇐뺿뚼듦퓚퇹놾쫽솿킡ꎬ쪱볤뿧뛈뛌ꎬ뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄닢뛈늻맦랶뗈컊쳢ꆣ캪쇋뗃돶룼럻뫏컒맺맺쟩ꆢ룼볓ힼ좷뿍맛뗄퇐뺿돉맻ꎬ놾컄쓢퓚틑폐퇐뺿컄쿗뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ뛔컒맺뛾쪮룶닺튵뗄뷼653볒웳튵뷸탐쪵횤퇐뺿ꎬ톰헒웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵뛔폚웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄펰쿬ꆣ ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔ꎬ췹췹짦벰훘듳뗄햽싔춶뻶닟ꎬ웤벨킧뗄뫃뮵뛔웳튵뗄랢햹폐ퟅ훁맘훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ춨맽ퟐ쾸뇈뷏펰쿬ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄훚뛠틲쯘ꎬ랢쿖뫜뛠쫇쓜릻캪웳튵듸살햽싔웚좨볛횵뗄ꆣ웳튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔놾짭튲쏦쇙ퟅ뫜뛠뗄늻좷뚨탔ꎬ쯹틔ꎬ퓚럖컶ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧쪱ꎬ뷶솢ퟣ떱잰쟩뿶뗄뺲첬퇐뺿랽램틑늻쓜싺ퟣ웳튵쯹쏦쇙뗄뢴퓓쟒늻좷뚨뗄뮷뺳ꆣ뾼싇햽싔웚좨뗄볛횵쓜릻냯훺웳튵룼뫃뗄랢쿖ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧ꎬ캪퇐뺿웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔쳡릩쇋룼볓짮죫뗄쫓튰ꆣ 틲듋ꎬ놾컄붫냑햽싔웚좨쮼쿫뫍ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔뷡뫏웰살ꎬ첽쳖웳튵퓚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐듦퓚뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵ꎬ틔벰헢훖볛횵뛔폚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄펰쿬ꎬ늢춨맽뛔짏쫐릫쮾뗄쪵횤퇐뺿퇩횤헢훖펰쿬ꆣ27
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 뗚죽헂 ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯냼몬뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵폫웳튵벨킧 듓짏튻헂뗄컄쿗ퟛ쫶뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ맘폚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뫍햽싔웚좨ꎬ횮잰톧헟뚼럖뇰폐쇋뫜짮죫뗄퇐뺿ꎬ떫쫇붫솽헟뷡뫏퓚튻웰뗄퇐뺿늢늻뛠볻ꆣ쫂쪵짏ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯ퟷ캪웳튵뗄튻룶릫쮾닣햽싔ꎬ쏦쇙ퟅ뫜뛠뗄늻좷뚨탔ꎬ뛸헢훖늻좷뚨탔ꎬ뻍룸폨쇋햽싔웚좨뗄듦퓚뿕볤ꎬ캪햽싔웚좨뗄붨솢듸살볛횵ꆣ웳튵퓚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄맽돌훐ꎬ컞싛웳튵쫇럱달뻵ꎬ뚼듦퓚ퟅ햽싔웚좨쿖쿳ꆣ샽죧ꎬ떱웳튵뷸탐잰쿲믲뫳쿲튻쳥뮯쪱ꎬ춨뎣폐벸훖쪵쿖랽쪽ꎬ냼삨붨솢햽싔솪쏋ꆢ짨솢뫏릫쮾ꆢ좫뛮볦늢ꆢퟔ붨뗈ꎬ웤훐ꎬ붨솢햽싔솪쏋뫍짨솢뫏릫쮾솽훖랽쪽뻍뿉틔뾴ퟷ쫇햽싔웚좨ꆣ퓚췢늿뮷뺳늻좷뚨쪱ꎬ웳튵붨솢햽싔솪쏋믲헟쫇짨솢뫏릫쮾뻍쿠떱폚릺싲쇋튻룶퓶뎤웚좨ꆣ퓚헢훖쒣쪽쿂웳튵뺭맽튻뛎쪱볤뗄랢햹뫳ꎬ믱좡쇋룼뛠맘폚췢늿뮷뺳뗄탅쾢ꎬ춬쪱탐튵뗄랢햹ힴ뿶뫜뫃ꎬ퓶뎤톸쯙ꎬ웳튵죏캪볓듳뛔짏폎믲헟쿂폎뗄춶ꎬ퓚닺튵솴짏뻟폐룼뛠뗘뮰폯좨뛔ퟔ짭룼폐샻ꎬ웳튵뿉틔톡퓱횴탐듋웚좨ꎬ벴믱뗃룼뛠짏쿂폎웳튵뗄막좨ꎬ짵훁좫뛮쫕릺ꎬ틔쿭쫜룼뛠탐튵퓶뎤듸살뗄쫕틦ꆣ쿠랴ꎬ죧맻웳튵룹뻝췢늿뮷뺳뗄탅쾢에뛏ꎬ탐튵뗄퓶뎤탔튻냣ꎬ볌탸뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯붫볓듳웳튵뗄뺭펪럧쿕ꎬ웳튵벯훐폚닺튵솴뗄쒳튻뮷뷚룼캪폐샻ꎬ웳튵뿉틔럅웺횴탐듋웚좨ꎬ벴놣돖쒿잰뗄ힴ첬ꎻ믲헟톡퓱볌탸뗈듽ꎬ퓚쿂튻룶쪱볤뷚뗣쪱퓙좨뫢쫇럱튪횴탐듋웚좨ꎬ헢샯쿠떱폚붨솢쇋튻룶뗈듽웚좨ꎻ믲헟탐튵쟩뿶벱뻧뛱뮯ꎬ웳튵톡퓱럅웺ퟮ돵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔ꎬ뺡맜죧듋ꎬ웳튵쯰쪧뗄튲뷶뷶쫇ퟮ돵뗄춶ꎬ쿠뇈횱뷓뷸죫뗄쯰쪧튪킡뗃뛠ꆣ 평듋뿉볻ꎬ햽싔웚좨냯훺웳튵룼폐킧뗄뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔뻶닟ꆣ붨솢햽싔웚좨ꎬ웳튵쒿잰닉좡뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔탐뚯믲헟춶ꎬ쪹웳튵믱뗃쇋쿈잰늻뻟폐뗄캴살뿉쓜탔ꎬ캪웳튵캴살믱샻뒴퓬쇋룼뛠믺믡ꎬ죃웳튵퓚뛠뇤뗄뮷뺳훐놣폐톡퓱좨ꆢ훷뚯좨뫍쇩믮탔ꆣ평폚웳튵쏦쇙뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨돌뛈뫜룟ꎬ쯹틔뇘탫힢틢뿘훆럧쿕ꎬ뷷짷탐쫂ꆣ뛸캪쇋퓚캴살쪵쿖룼훘튪뗄햽싔뻶닟ꎬ믲쫇믱뗃쿈잰늻듦퓚뗄뿉쓜탔ꎬ탨튪떱잰뗄튻킩탐뚯믲춶ꆣ퓚듳뛠쫽쟩뿶쿂ꎬ쿈잰뗄ꆰ쫔탐햽싔ꆱ믲헟ꆰ쫔춶ꆱ쫇돉릦뗘뷸탐뫳탸햽싔믲듳맦쒣춶뗄잰쳡쳵볾ꆣ 늻좷뚨뗄뮷뺳룸웳튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔듸살룼뛠뗄럧쿕ꎬ떫춬쪱튲돤싺ퟅ믺폶ꆣ튻랽쏦ꎬ웳튵펦떱냑컕늻좷뚨탔듸살뗄믺폶ꎬ쿭쫜퓶뎤듸살뗄쫕틦ꎻ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ웳튵탨튪뻟폐럧쿕틢쪶ꎬ맦뇜늻좷뚨탔뿉쓜듸살뗄쯰쪧ꎬ훁짙쓜릻붫쯰쪧뿘훆퓚뫏샭뗄랶캧쓚ꆣ틲듋ꎬ퓚뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔맽돌훐폐틢쪶뗄펦폃햽싔웚좨쮼쿫살뫢솿햽싔뻶닟쿔뗃쪮럖뇘튪ꆣ 28
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 떫쫇ꎬ퓚쿖쪵훐ꎬ햽싔웚좨쮼쿫뮹쎻폐뗃떽맣랺뗄펦폃ꆣ떫쫇웳튵뗄튻킩햽싔탐뚯뿉틔폃햽싔웚좨뗄쮼쿫살뷢쫍ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ웳튵퓚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄맽돌훐ꎬ컞싛웳튵쫇럱달뻵ꎬ뚼듦퓚ퟅ햽싔웚좨쿖쿳ꆣ 믘맋뗚뛾헂뗄컄쿗ퟛ쫶ꎬ맘폚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄뚯틲듦퓚솽룶샭싛톧엉ꎺ닺튵ퟩ횯톧엉뫍훆뛈뺭볃톧엉ꆣ웤훐닺튵ퟩ횯톧엉죏캪펰쿬ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄뚯틲훷튪폐ꎺ닺튵벯훐뛈ꎨ슢뛏뚯믺쮵ꎩꆢ닺튵솴벼쫵틀듦뛈ꎨ벼쫵뺭볃쮵ꎩꆢ닺튵뗄짺쏼훜웚ꆢ닺튵뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔뗈ꆣ훆뛈뺭볃톧엉훷튪싛쫶쇋웳튵폫쫐뎡뗄뇟뷧ꎬ죏캪펰쿬ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄뚯틲훷튪폐ꎺ쫐뎡뗄붻틗럑폃벰웳튵닺뗄폃탔뗈틲쯘ꆣ 컒쏇퓙살뾼싇햽싔웚좨볛횵뗄뻶뚨틲쯘ꆣ퓚컄쿗ퟛ쫶훐ꎬ훘뗣헻샭쇋ퟮ뎣볻뗄쯄룶샠탍뗄햽싔웚좨ꎺ뮻웚좨ꆢ췋돶웚좨ꆢ퓶뎤웚좨ꆢ퇓동웚좨ꆣ뺭맽뇈뷏랢쿖ꎬ뻶뚨헢쯄샠늻춬샠탍햽싔웚좨볛횵뗄틲쯘훐ꎬ잡쟉폐튻킩튲쫇펰쿬ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯탐캪뗄틲쯘횮튻ꆣ뻟쳥뗄뛔펦뿉틔닎볻쿂쏦뗄뇭룱ꆣ 뇭3-1ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뚯틲폫햽싔웚좨볛횵뗄맘쾵 Table 3-1 Relationship of VI deciding factors and value of strategic options ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄뚯틲 쫜듋틲쯘펰쿬뗄햽싔웚좨샠탍 닺튵뗄폃탔ꎨ닺ꆢ벼쫵ꆢ쿺쫛쟾뗀ꎩ 뮻웚좨 닺튵솴뗄벼쫵틀듦뛈 췋돶웚좨 닺튵짺쏼훜웚 퓶뎤웚좨 햽싔뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔ꎨ헾닟ꆢ뺺헹ꆢ벼쫵ꎩ퇓동웚좨 평듋뿉볻ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔맽돌훐듦퓚뗄햽싔웚좨ꎬ웤볛횵쫜떽펰쿬ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꎬ뛸헢킩틲쯘튲펰쿬ퟅퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧ꆣ틲듋ꎬ컒쏇뿉틔죏캪ꎬ햽싔웚좨뗄볛횵퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏펰쿬ퟅퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧ꆣ 쯹틔ꎬ놾컄틔듋캪돶랢뗣ꎬ쾣췻춨맽쪵횤볬퇩ꎬ뾼달웳튵퓚쪵쪩ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐듦퓚뗄햽싔웚좨뗄볛횵뛔웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧쫇럱폐펰쿬ꆣ컒쏇붫럖뇰뾼달쯄샠햽싔웚좨뗄볛횵뛔폚웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄펰쿬ꆣ 뮻웚좨뗄볛횵폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧 룹뻝훆뛈뺭볃톧엉뗄샭싛ꎬ웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔ꎬ쫇돶폚붻틗돉놾뗄뾼싇ꆣ뛸실쪵29
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 떽뻟쳥뗄닺튵훐ꎬ춨뎣닺폃탔뷏잿뗄웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔뗄뚯믺풽듳ꆣ틲캪닺폃탔돌뛈풽룟ꎬ붻틗쮫랽뗄쿠뮥틀삵탔뻍풽짮ꆣ춨맽뫏풼뗄쓚죝살짨볆췪놸뗄놣헏듫쪩ꎬ뇜쏢뿉쓜뗄캥풼탐캪ꎬ쫇뇈뷏삧쓑뗄ꎬ믺믡훷틥뗄탐캪뮹쫇뿉쓜듦퓚ꎬ폐쯰웳튵샻틦ꆣ폚쫇떱쫂죋횮볤뇘탫뛔풤웚뗄믺믡훷틥탐캪뷸탐컞택횹뗄첸에ꎬ헢붫듳듳쳡룟붻틗럑폃ꆣ틲듋떱쫂죋횮볤웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯틔뫳ꎬ뿉틔뇜쏢쇋붻틗룷랽뿉쓜뗄믺믡훷틥탐캪ꎬ뷚쪡쇋붻틗돉놾ꆣ 쫂쪵짏ꎬ퓚뾼싇쒳튻닺튵뗄폃탔쳘헷쪱ꎬ컒쏇늻펦룃뷶뷶뻖쿞퓚닺뗄폃탔헢튻뗣짏ꎬ믲헟쮵ꎬꆰ닺ꆱ펦룃폐룼볓맣랺뗄몭틥ꎬ뛸늻뷶뷶쫇만뚨닺ꆣ쫗쿈ꎬ웳튵돽쇋펵폐만뚨닺틔췢ꎬ벼쫵쓜솦튲쫇뫜훘튪뗄튻쿮닺ꎬ웤쯹뻟폐뗄볛횵쿠떱뻞듳ꆣ벼쫵뗄폃탔튲쫇뛔폚웳튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뻶닟튲웰ퟅ훁맘훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ웤듎ꎬ듓웳튵쯹뒦뗄닺튵솴살쮵ꎬ폫짏쿂폎짺닺뮷뷚횮볤뗄맘쾵춨뎣뮹쏦쇙ퟅ쿺쫛쟾뗀뗄폃탔뗄컊쳢ꎬ튲쫇웳튵퓚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐뗄뾼싇틲쯘ꎬ폈웤쫇뛔잰쿲튻쳥뮯살쮵ꆣ틲듋ꎬퟛ뫏틔짏뗄맛뗣ꎬ퓚뾼싇닺튵뗄폃탔뛔폚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄펰쿬쪱ꎬ탨튪ퟛ뫏뾼싇죽룶랽쏦뗄틲쯘ꎺ닺뗄폃탔ꆢ벼쫵뗄폃탔뫍쿺쫛쟾뗀뗄폃탔ꆣ 웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄룹놾돶랢뗣뻍쫇ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯쓜릻쳡룟웳튵뗄벨킧ꆣ틲듋ꎬ닺튵뗄폃탔볈좻쫇웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄뚯믺ꎬ듓벨킧뗄뷇뛈살뾴ꎬ닺튵뗄폃탔풽잿ꎬ닺튵훐뗄웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧튲펦룃풽룟ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ닺튵뗄닺뗄폃탔ꆢ벼쫵뗄폃탔믲헟쿺쫛쟾뗀뗄폃탔풽잿ꎬ닺튵훐뗄웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯펦룃쓜릻캪웳튵뒴퓬룼듳뗄볛횵ꆣ헢쫇틲캪ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯폐훺폚웳튵뷚풼붻틗돉놾ꎬ쳡룟킧싊ꆣ 쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ닺튵뗄폃탔쳘헷뢳폨쪵쪩ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄웳튵뮻웚좨볛횵ꆣ샭싛짏살붲ꎬ뮻웚좨뗄붨솢쓜릻뢳폨웳튵퓚쏦뛔춻랢뗄늻좷뚨탔쫂볾쪱벰쪱뗷헻햽싔ꎬ춬쪱붫쯰쪧뿘훆퓚틑횪뗄돌뛈쓚뗄튻훖좨샻ꆣ웳튵퓚쪵쪩ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄맽돌훐뫜뿉쓜폶떽틢쿫늻떽뗄춻랢쫂볾ꎬ떼훂웳튵뇘탫뛔햽싔뷸탐뗷헻ꎬ뮻웚좨뗄볛횵뻍퓚폚쯼뢳폨쇋웳튵뷸탐햽싔뗷헻뗄좨샻폫쇩믮탔ꆣ헢뻍튪쟳웳튵퓚훆뚨햽싔쪱놣돖튻뚨뗄쇩믮탔ꎬ벴뾪쪼쪱뻍힢틢붨솢햽싔죡탔ꆣ뻟쳥살쮵ꎬ웳튵퓚쪵쪩ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐ꎬ죧맻쫐뎡쳵볾ꆢ헾닟뮷뺳믲헟쫇웳튵ퟔ짭춻좻랢짺훘듳뇤룯ꎬ떼훂웳튵뇘탫ퟶ돶햽싔뗷헻ꎬ쫂쿈붨솢뗄뮻웚좨붫냯훺웳튵붫뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄춶퓚쫊떱뗄쳵볾쿂뮻캪웤쯻햽싔틢춼ꎬ샽죧뛔쫐뎡뗄삩헅째춸ꎬ뛔닺욷뗄뾪랢ꎬ뛔쿺쫛쟾뗀뗄뒴탂뗈ꎬ쪹웳튵뗄쯰쪧붵뗍떽ퟮ킡ꆣ 뮻웚좨뢳폨쇋웳튵퓚햽싔뮷뺳랢짺훘듳뇤룯쪱뷸탐햽싔뗷헻뗄좨샻ꎬ쯼춨뎣퓚햽싔횴탐돵웚춨맽웳튵쓚늿믲췢늿튻뚨뗄웵풼낲업붨솢ꆣ쯼늻뷶쫜웳튵ퟔ짭뗄쓜솦풴뗄쿞훆ꎬ룼뫍웳튵쯹퓚닺튵뗄닺튵쳘탔쏜쟐쿠맘ꆣ늻좷뚨탔쫇햽싔웚좨볛횵뗄살풴ꎬ뛸늻좷뚨탔듸살뗄30
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 햽싔웚좨뗄볛횵뗄듳킡퓲좡뻶폚닺튵놾짭뗄쳘탔ꆣ뛔폚뮻웚좨살쮵ꎬ죧맻웳튵쯹퓚닺튵뗄뗤탍닺뗄폃탔뫜잿ꎬ퓲듋닺폃ퟷ쯻폃뗄뿉탐탔뷏킡ꎬ튻떩ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯쪵쪩맽돌훐웳튵폶떽틢쿫늻떽뗄쫂볾ꎬ헢쿮햽싔춶뿉쓜캪웳튵듸살뷏듳뗄쯰쪧ꆣ틲듋ꎬ뛔폚헢퇹뗄웳튵살쮵ꎬ퓚훆뚨ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔돵웚ꎬ붨솢쟐쪵뿉탐뗄뮻웚좨뗄볛횵뻍뇈뷏듳ꎬ뮻웚좨쓜릻냯훺웳튵퓚폶떽늻좷뚨탔쪱뛔햽싔춶ퟶ돶뗷헻ꎬ냑쯰쪧뿘훆퓚튻뚨랶캧쓚ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ닺튵뗄닺폃탔풽잿ꎬ붨솢뮻웚좨뗄볛횵풽듳ꆣ춬퇹ꎬ죧맻웳튵쯹퓚닺튵뗄짺닺벼쫵뗄폃탔풽잿ꎬ뿉틆횲탔풽뗍ꎬ퓲뮻웚좨뗄볛횵풽듳ꎻ죴웳튵쯹퓚닺튵뗄쿺쫛쟾뗀폃탔풽잿ꎬ퓲웤쯹돖뮻웚좨뗄볛횵튲풽듳ꆣ랴횮틠좻ꆣ 뮻웚좨볛횵 뮻웚좨 0 닺튵뗄폃탔 춼3-1 뮻웚좨뗄볛횵 Figure3-1 Value of Switch Options ퟛ짏쯹쫶ꎬ뛔폚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔훐듦퓚뗄뮻웚좨쿖쿳ꎬ떱웳튵쯹퓚닺튵뗄닺폃탔ꆢ벼쫵폃탔틔벰쿺쫛쟾뗀뗄폃탔풽잿쪱ꎬ뮻웚좨뗄볛횵풽듳ꎬ뛸웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧풽룟ꆣ뮻웚좨볛횵쫇ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔벨킧뗄헽쿲펰쿬틲쯘ꆣ틲듋ꎬ퓚듋쳡돶놾컄뗄뗚튻룶볙짨ꎺ Hꎺ웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐뮻웚좨뗄볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧폐헽쿲펰쿬ꆣ뮻웚좨01뗄볛횵풽듳ꎬ벴닺튵뗄폃탔풽룟ꎬ웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧풽룟ꆣ 췋돶웚좨뗄볛횵폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧 룹뻝닺튵ퟩ횯톧엉뗄샭싛ꎬ퓚웳튵쯹뒦뗄닺튵솴훐ꎬ짏쿂폎뗄벼쫵틀듦뛈쫇웳튵뷸탐ퟝ31
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 쿲튻쳥뮯뗄훘튪뚯틲ꆣ탭뛠짺닺뷗뛎퓚벼쫵짏뷴쏜쿠솪ꎬ죧쪯폍볓릤맽돌뗄솬탸ퟷ튵믲튱뷰맽돌뗄볓죈ꆢ퓾룖뗈릤탲ꎬ춨맽ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뿉틔냑쿠볌짺닺뮷뷚솪쾵웰살ꎬ틔뇣듓벼쫵짏뷚풼돉놾ꎬ쪹짺닺룼폐킧싊ꎬ헢훖벼쫵짏뗄뺭볃탔믡듙쪹웳튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯ꎬ웳튵춨맽ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뿉틔돤럖샻폃쯼쏇듸살뗄랶캧뺭볃ꆣ 틲듋ꎬ짏쿂폎닺튵솴벼쫵틀듦뛈잿뗄웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄뚯틲튲뇈뷏잿ꎬ헢붫듳듳쳡룟웳튵뗄벨킧ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ듓벨킧뗄뷇뛈살뾴ꎬ닺튵솴벼쫵뗄틀듦뛈풽잿ꎬ닺튵훐뗄웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯쯹닺짺뗄벨킧튲펦룃풽룟ꆣ 뛔폚닺튵솴벼쫵틀듦뛈뷏잿뗄웳튵살쮵ꎬ폈웤쫇쓇킩뒦폚늻좷뚨뮷뺳훐뗄웳튵ꎬ퓚쪵쪩ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔쪱ꎬ붨솢췋돶웚좨뗄틢틥훘듳ꆣ헢쫇틲캪ꎬ웳튵퓚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐ꎬ뿉쓜믡폶떽늻뿉풤웚뗄닺튵헾닟믲쫐뎡뮷뺳뗄뇤뮯ꎬ벫뛋쟩뿶쿂뿉쓜떼훂ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯늻뿉볌탸ꎬ짵훁놻웈랴ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯ꆣ웳튵놻웈튪럅웺횮잰뗄햽싔춶ꎬ돶쫛닺틔췋돶쿠맘뗄닺튵솴뮷뷚ꆣ헢뛔폚쪵쪩ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄웳튵살쮵ꎬ쯰쪧붫쫇뻞듳뗄ꆣ춨뎣웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯쿠맘뗄햽싔춶뗄뷰뛮뚼뇈뷏듳ꎬ뛸쟒췹췹탨튪뢴퓓뗄죚맽돌ꆣ튻떩돶쿖뫜닮뗄쟩뿶탨튪췋돶ꎬ닺뿉쓜탨튪듲헛돶쫛ꎬ룸웳튵듸살쯰쪧ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ돶쫛닺쯹닺짺뗄쿖뷰쫇럱ퟣ릻뎥뮹횮잰뗄죚튲쫇탨튪뾼싇뗄컊쳢ꆣ튻떩웳튵떱쪱뗄쿖뷰쇷ힴ뿶늻ퟣ틔볌탸캬돖뷰뗄탨쟳ꎬ쓇쎴웳튵췋돶ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄탐캪붫캪웳튵웤쯼뮷뷚뗄뺭펪튲듸살삧쓑ꆣ뛸쟒ꎬ죧맻웳튵쯹퓚뗄닺튵훐ꎬ닺튵솴뗄짏쿂폎횮볤벼쫵틀듦뛈뫜잿ꎬ웳튵튻떩췋돶쒳튻룶뮷뷚ꎬ뷸탐랴ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯ꎬ뛔폚룄뇤뫳뗄웳튵살쮵ꎬ탨튪퓚짺닺벼쫵낲업뫍릫쮾맜샭짏ퟶ돶뫜듳뗷헻ꎬ훘탂쒥뫏웚뿉쓜믡뷏뎤ꎬ헢붫믡듳듳붵뗍웳튵뗄킧싊ꎬ펰쿬웳튵뗄벨킧ꆣ 틲듋ꎬ캪쇋뇜쏢믲헟복킡헢킩뿉쓜뗄쯰쪧ꎬ닺튵솴벼쫵틀듦뛈뷏잿뗄웳튵펦룃퓚쪵쪩ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔횮돵ꎬ뻍내헕뿉쓜돶쿖뗄럧쿕붨솢췋돶웚좨ꎬ틔듯떽붫쯰쪧뿘훆퓚ퟮ킡랶캧뗄쒿뗄ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ웳튵펦퓚쿈웚뗄햽싔늿쫰쪱캪ퟔ벺낲업튻룶뿉붫쯰쪧붵뗍떽ퟮ킡뗄췋돶톡퓱ꆣ 췋돶웚좨춨뎣튲쫇퓚햽싔횴탐돵웚춨맽웳튵쓚늿믲췢늿튻뚨뗄웵풼낲업붨솢ꆣ평짏쏦뗄럖컶뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ닺튵솴뗄짏쿂폎횮볤벼쫵틀듦뛈풽잿뗄웳튵ꎬ퓚폶떽늻샻뗄췢늿뮷뺳뛸웈늻뗃틑톡퓱췋돶쪱ꎬ뿉쓜캪웳튵듸살뗄쯰쪧붫믡풽듳ꎬ튲뻍쫇췋돶듋탐튵듸살뗄듺볛풽룟ꆣ쯹틔ꎬ죴웳튵춨맽쿈웚늿쫰캪ퟔ벺붨솢쇋췋돶웚좨ꎬ뻍뿉틔붫쯰쪧붵뗍떽ퟮ킡ꆣ헢훖놻쿻돽쇋뗄뿉쓜쯰쪧ꎬ튲뿉틔뾴돉쫇웳튵퓚쳘쫢쟩뿶쿂뗄튻훖쫕틦ꎬ퓲웳튵쯹돖폐췋돶웚좨뗄볛횵뻍풽듳ꆣ룅삨뗘쮵ꎬ뻍쫇닺튵솴뗄벼쫵틀듦뛈풽룟ꎬ췋돶웚좨뗄볛횵풽듳ꆣ 32
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 췋돶웚좨볛횵 췋돶웚좨 0 닺튵솴뗄벼쫵틀듦뛈 춼3-2 췋돶웚좨뗄볛횵 Figure3-2 Value of Quit Options 평폚췋돶웚좨뢳폨쇋웳튵퓚벫뛋쟩뿶쿂붫쯰쪧붵뗍떽ퟮ킡뗄췋돶톡퓱ꎬ뫍뮻웚좨튻퇹ꎬ쪹웳튵쓜룼듓죝뗘펦뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔쪵쪩훐폶떽뗄룷훖춻랢쟩뿶ꎬ복킡웳튵뛔쪵쪩ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔뿉쓜듸살뗄럧쿕뗄떣폇ꆣ쯹틔퓚췋돶웚좨볛횵풽듳쪱ꎬ웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄뚯믺풽듳ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯쯹쓜듸살뗄웳튵벨킧튲풽룟ꆣ ퟛ짏쯹쫶ꎬ뛔폚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔훐듦퓚뗄췋돶웚좨쿖쿳ꎬ떱웳튵쯹퓚닺튵뗄닺튵솴벼쫵틀듦뛈풽룟쪱ꎬ췋돶웚좨뗄볛횵풽듳ꎬ뛸웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧풽룟ꆣ췋돶웚좨볛횵쫇ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔벨킧뗄헽쿲펰쿬틲쯘ꆣ틲듋ꎬ퓚듋쳡돶놾컄뗄뗚뛾룶볙짨ꎺ Hꎺ웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐췋돶웚좨뗄볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧폐헽쿲펰쿬ꆣ췋돶웚좨02뗄볛횵풽듳ꎬ벴닺튵솴뗄벼쫵틀듦뛈풽룟ꎬ웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧풽룟ꆣ 퓶뎤웚좨뗄볛횵폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧 룹뻝닺튵ퟩ횯톧엉뗄샭싛ꎬ튻룶닺튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈쯦ퟅ닺튵짺쏼훜웚룄뇤뛸룄뇤ꆣ떱닺튵뒦폚퓧웚랢햹뷗뛎쪱ꎬ평폚쫐뎡맦쒣폐쿞ꆢ탅쾢좱랦ꎬ뎧짌탨튪뗄탂훖샠믲탂욷훊뗄풭닄쇏횻쓜ퟔ벺훆퓬ꎬ쯼쏇뇘탫ퟔ탐짨볆ꆢ훆퓬튵뮯뗄짨놸ꎬ늢쟒ퟔ벺엠통벼쫵릤죋ꎬ틲캪퓚쫐뎡훐뫜쓑헒떽웤쯻튵뗄뎧짌살돐떣헢킩죎컱ꆣ쯹틔ꎬ뒦폚닺튵짺쏼훜웚퓧웚뗄웳튵춨뎣ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄돌뛈뫜룟ꆣ떱닺튵볌탸랢햹ꎬ쫐뎡맦쒣삩듳늢쟒잰뺰놻뾴뫃쪱ꎬ뻍믡돶쿖33
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 짧믡럖릤ꆣ틲캪짏쫶릤ퟷ뗄쫽솿쯦ퟅ닺튵뗄ힳ듳믡뛠떽ퟣ틔틆붻룸튵뮯뎧짌좥췪돉ꆣ닺튵솴룷뮷뷚뚼평ퟮ뻟폐킧싊뫍폅쫆뗄뎧짌살돐떣ꎬ쯻쏇튵듓쫂쒳튻쿮짺닺믲럾컱ꎬ헢퇹퓚헻쳥짏쳡룟쇋짧믡킧싊ꎬ춬쪱캪쯹폐뎧짌듸살샻틦ꆣ퓚헢룶뷗뛎ꎬ탭뛠퓚퓧웚랢햹뷗뛎뇘탫평뎧짌ퟔ벺돐떣뗄릤ퟷ뿉틔붻룸웤쯻튵뎧짌살췪돉ꎬ뛸웳튵놾짭뻍벯훐뺫솦ퟶ뫃ퟔ벺ퟮ뻟폐뺺헹폅쫆뗄튵컱ꆣퟮ뫳ꎬ떱닺튵뾪쪼쮥실쪱ꎬ쓇킩웰뢨훺ꆢ늹돤ퟷ폃뗄럖횧닺튵튲믡쮥실ꎬ룃닺튵훐닐듦뎧짌늻뗃늻훘닙뻉튵ꎬ돐떣웰쓇킩늻퓙ퟣ틔캬돖웤쯻뛀솢뎧짌뗄릦쓜ꆣ 틲듋ꎬ풽쫇뒦폚닺튵짺쏼훜웚퓧웚뗄웳튵ꎬ뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄뚯믺튲풽잿ꎻ풽쫇돉쫬뗄닺튵ꎬ닺튵훐뗄럖릤풽쿪쾸ꎬ웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄뚯믺튲뇈풽죵ꆣ춬퇹ꎬ듓벨킧뗄뷇뛈살붲ꎬ뒦폚짺쏼훜웚퓧웚뗄닺튵ꎬ뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯붫쳡룟웳튵킧싊ꎬ폐훺폚쳡룟웳튵벨킧ꎻ뛸뛔폚돉쫬닺튵훐뗄웳튵살쮵ꎬ듓쫂튵뮯뗄짺닺뛔웳튵룼폐샻ꎬ웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯랴뛸뿉쓜붵뗍웳튵벨킧ꆣ ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔쫇튻룶뢴퓓뗄뛠늽훨맽돌ꎬ웳튵뿉틔붫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔뗄쪵쪩럖뷢캪벸룶늻춬뷗뛎ꎬ퓚쎿룶뷗뛎룹뻝쓚췢늿뮷뺳뻶뚨쫇럱볌탸쿂튻뷗뛎뗄햽싔탐뚯ꎬ춨맽붨솢퓶뎤웚좨살뿘훆ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄ퟝ짮돌뛈ꆣퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯훐뗄퓶뎤웚좨폫뷰죚뾴헇웚좨벫캪쿠쯆ꆣ웳튵퓚햽싔쪵쪩돵웚뛔닺튵솴맘볼뮷뷚뗄짙솿춶뻍뫃쿱릺싲쇋튻룶뷰죚뾴헇웚좨ꎻ뗈듽햽싔뮷뺳훰붥쟥컺뻍뫃쿱뗈듽뷰죚뾴헇웚좨돉쫬ꎻ뛸퓚쫊떱뗄쪱뫲뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔뗄훘듳늿쫰뫍쪵쪩뻍뫃쿱횴탐듋뷰죚뾴헇웚좨ꎻ죴ퟮ훕웳튵뻶뚨럅웺ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뻍뫃쿱럅웺듋뷰죚뾴헇웚좨ꎬ쯰쪧뗄횻쫇ퟮ돵뗄짙솿춶ꆣ펰쿬뷰죚뾴헇웚좨볛횵뗄뇤솿캪ꎺ웚좨뗄횴탐볛룱ꎬ뇪뗄닺떱잰볛룱ꎬ뇪뗄닺쫕틦싊뗄랽닮ꎬ뻠샫웚좨떽웚쪱볤뫍컞럧쿕샻싊ꆣ평폚햽싔웚좨뗄돩쿳탔뫍뫪맛탔ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯훐퓶뎤웚좨뗄횴탐볛룱ꆢ뇪뗄닺떱잰볛룱뫍뻠샫웚좨떽웚쪱볤뚼쓑틔좷뚨ꆣ떫쫇컒쏇뿉틔듓닺튵퓶뎤싊뗄늨뚯살에뛏ꎬ늨뚯싊뛔퓶뎤웚좨뗄볛횵폐헽쿲뗄펰쿬ꆣ 뷰죚웚좨돖폐헟퓚쯸뚨뇪뗄닺쿂뷧럧쿕뗄춬쪱뿉틔컞쿞훆뗘쿭쫜뇪뗄닺뗄짏뷧쫕틦ꆣ틲듋ꎬ막욱볛룱뗄늨뚯싊풽듳ꎬ웚좨볛횵풽룟ꆣ뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯훐퓶뎤웚좨볛횵뗄뫢솿뿉뷨폃춬퇹뗄쮼쿫ꆣ룹뻝Gunther뫍Nerkar뗄ꆰ믺믡랶캧ꆱ룅쓮ꎬ웳튵쯹퓚닺튵뗄퓶뎤싊뗄늨뚯뻍쫇웳튵쏦뛔뗄ꆰ믺믡랶캧ꆱꎬ죴웳튵쯹퓚닺튵뺭샺쇋뿬쯙퓶뎤ꎬ퓲웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄퓶뎤웚좨뿉틔벰쪱냑컕닺튵뿬쯙퓶뎤뗄믺폶ꎬ캪웳튵퓶볓볛횵ꎻ죴웳튵쯹퓚닺튵헽퓚쮥췋ꎬ퓲웳튵뗄춶폚듋닺튵뗄쯰쪧뷶쿞폚웚돵뗄짙솿춶ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ돖폐퓶뎤웚좨뗄웳튵퓚쯸뚨햽싔춶쿂뷧럧쿕뗄춬쪱냑컕힡쇋닺튵뿬쯙퓶뎤듸살뗄뻞듳믺믡ꎬ닺튵퓶뎤싊뗄늨뚯풽듳ꎬ퓲퓶뎤웚좨볛횵풽룟ꆣ 34
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 퓶뎤웚좨볛횵퓶뎤웚좨 0 닺튵짺쏼훜웚뷗뛎 춼3-3 퓶뎤웚좨뗄볛횵 Figure3-3 Value of Growth Options 뻟쳥살쮵ꎬ퓶뎤웚좨퓚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔훐뇭쿖캪ꎬ웳튵폐틢쪵쪩ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯ꎬ폈웤쫇뒦폚짺쏼훜웚뷏퓧웚뗄웳튵ꎬ떫평폚닺튵뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔뿉쓜듸살럧쿕ꎬ횱뷓좫쏦춶폚닺튵솴뗄짏쿂폎뿉쓜믡떼훂웳튵돐떣늻뇘튪뗄럧쿕ꎬ뛸죧맻췪좫늻닉좡죎뫎탐뚯폖뿉쓜떼훂웳튵쪧좥쿈뚯폅쫆ꎬ믲헟틲컞램헒떽쏅뗄뎧짌살쳡릩닺욷믲럾컱뛸쿞훆웳튵뗄랢햹ꎬ즥쪧퓚캴살믱좡룼뛠샻죳뗄믺믡ꆣ듋쪱ꎬ웳튵뿉틔춨맽짙솿춶폚짏쿂폎닺튵솴뗄뗄쿠맘뮷뷚훐ꎬ춨맽뫏믲헟늿럖킡맦쒣쫔춶뗄랽쪽ꎬ붨솢퓶뎤웚좨ꎬ캪뫳탸햽싔탐뚯듮붨뇘튪뗄욽첨ꎬ틔웚퓚캴살쓜릻벰쪱냑컕퓶뎤믺믡ꎬ샻폃ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯캪웳튵퓶볓볛횵ꆣ 듓뗚뛾헂뗄컄쿗ퟛ쫶훐뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ늻좷뚨탔캪햽싔웚좨듸살볛횵ꆣ뒦폚짺쏼훜웚퓧웚뗄닺튵ꎬ춨뎣닺튵뗄퓶뎤싊뚼뻟폐뇈뷏듳뗄늨뚯탔ꆣ떱닺튵랢햹쮳샻쪱ꎬ닺튵뿉쓜뺭샺볓쯙뗄랢햹맽돌ꎻ죧맻닺튵늻탒폶떽췢늿뮷뺳뇤뮯뗄돥믷ꎬ닺튵뗄퓶뎤싊뿉쓜톸쯙쿂붵ꆣ뛸뛔폚돉쫬뗄닺튵살쮵ꎬ룷랽쏦뗄좷뚨탔뚼뇈뷏잿ꎬ닺튵뗄퓶뎤싊춨뎣뇈뷏욽컈ꆣ틲듋ꎬ뛔폚뒦폚짺쏼훜웚퓧웚뗄닺튵살쮵ꎬ붨솢퓶뎤웚좨뗄볛횵뇈뷏듳ꎬ튻랽쏦맦뇜닺튵뗄쿂탐럧쿕ꎬ붫뿉쓜쯰쪧뿘훆퓚튻뚨랶캧쓚ꎻ쇭튻랽쏦돤럖쿭쫜닺튵쿲짏뗄컞쿞랢햹뿕볤ꎬ퓚닺튵룟쯙랢햹뗄쪱뫲ꎬ샻폃쫂쿈붨솢뗄퓶뎤웚좨뇈웤쯻웤웳튵룼뿬뗄햼쇬쫐뎡ꆣ ퟛ짏쯹쫶ꎬ뛔폚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔훐듦퓚뗄퓶뎤웚좨쿖쿳ꎬ떱닺튵뒦폚짺쏼훜웚퓧웚뷗뛎쪱ꎬ춨뎣닺튵퓶뎤싊뗄늨뚯탔뷏룟ꎬ듸살뗄퓶뎤웚좨뗄볛횵튲뷏듳ꎬ뛸헢룶뷗뛎웳튵뷸탐뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄뷏룟뚯믺튲붫캪웳튵듸살뷏룟뗄벨킧ꆣ펵폐뎤풶햽싔퇛맢뗄웳튵뗄샭훇뻶닟쫇35
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 춨맽뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄쫔춶붨솢퓶뎤웚좨ꎬ틔냑컕ꆰ믺믡랶캧ꆱ쯹듸살뗄잱퓚쫕틦ꆣ틲듋ꎬ퓶뎤웚좨볛횵풽룟ꎬ웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧풽뫃ꆣ퓶뎤웚좨볛횵쫇ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔벨킧뗄헽쿲펰쿬틲쯘ꆣ틲듋ꎬ퓚듋쳡돶놾컄뗄뗚죽룶볙짨ꎺ Hꎺ웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐퓶뎤웚좨뗄볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧폐헽쿲펰쿬ꆣ퓶뎤웚좨03뗄볛횵풽듳ꎬ벴닺튵뒦폚짺쏼훜웚뗄풽퓧웚ꎬ웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧풽룟ꆣ 퇓동웚좨뗄볛횵폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧 룹뻝닺튵ퟩ횯톧엉뗄샭싛ꎬ쪵탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뿉틔믱뗃뷏좷뚨뗄춶죫튪쯘릩룸ꎬ믲뷏좷뚨뗄닺욷쫐뎡ꎬ듓뛸뇜쏢풭닄쇏뫍닺욷쫐뎡늻좷뚨탔듸살뗄쯰쪧ꆣ웳튵햽싔뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔살ퟔ벸룶랽쏦ꎺ헾닟뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔ꆢ뺺헹뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔뫍닺튵벼쫵뗄늻좷뚨탔ꆣ 헾닟뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔냼삨맺볒뗄뫪맛뺭볃헾닟뫍뛔뻟쳥쒳튻닺튵뗄쳘쫢헾닟ꆣ뫪맛뺭볃헾닟냼삨믵뇒헾닟뫍닆헾헾닟ꎬ뚼믡퓚쒳훖돌뛈짏펰쿬닺튵뗄랢햹ꆣ뇈죧ꎬ떱맺볒쪵탐뷴쯵뗄믵뇒헾닟쪱ꎬ뛔폚쓇킩뛔놾튪쟳뇈뷏룟뗄웳튵살쮵ꎬ죚뗄돉놾쳡룟ꎬ뛸죚뗄삧쓑돌뛈폐쯹짏짽ꎬ헢킩뚼믡붵뗍닺튵뗄랢햹쯙뛈ꆣ폖믲헟맺볒쪵쪩뿭쯉뗄믵뇒헾닟ꎬ웳튵뗄쮰쫕톹솦붵뗍ꎬ붫뛔웳튵뗄벨킧웰떽듙뷸뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ 뺺헹쫇떼훂쫕틦쮮욽쿂붵뗄훘튪틲쯘ꆣ뺺헹뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔캪웳튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔듸살럧쿕ꆣ룹뻝늨쳘뗄컥솦쒣탍ꎬ뺺헹틲쯘럖캪춬샠웳튵ꆢ잱퓚뺺헹헟ꆢ쳦듺욷ꆢ맋뿍뫍릩펦짌컥훖틲쯘ꆣ뺺헹뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔ퟮ뗤탍뗄뇭쿖쫇쫐뎡짏닺욷볛룱뗄늨뚯탔ꆣ평폚짏쫶컥샠틲쯘늻뛏뇤뮯쯹듸살뗄릩룸뫍탨쟳뗄늻컈뚨ꎬ쪹뗃닺욷뗄쫐뎡볛룱뒦폚늻뛏뗄퓙욽뫢폫뗷헻맽돌훐ꆣ떱뺺헹뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔뷏룟뗄쪱뫲ꎬ닺욷뗄볛룱뫍탨쟳뚼쳥쿖돶뷏듳뗄늨뚯탔ꎬ뷸뛸펰쿬웳튵뗄쫕틦쮮욽ꆣ 닺튵벼쫵뗄늻좷뚨탔훷튪살ퟔ폚춬샠웳튵뗄벼쫵뒴탂ꎬ탂뗄벼쫵닣돶늻쟮ꎬ좡듺풭폐뗄벼쫵ꎬ늢쓜쪹웳튵믱뗃룼룟뗄쫕틦ꆣ헢퇹ꎬ웳튵쿫튪믱뗃뺺헹폅쫆ꎬ뻍튪룹뻝탂뗄벼쫵늻뛏뗘룄뷸ퟔ벺뗄짺닺맽돌뫍맜샭랽램ꆣ닺튵벼쫵뗄늻좷뚨탔풽룟ꎬ뛔웳튵살쮵ꎬ쪵탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄틢틥풽듳ꎬ틲캪웳튵뿉틔붫헢훖늻좷뚨탔쓚뮯떽웳튵쓚늿ꎬ탨튪뗷헻뗄쪱뫲쓜릻룼톸쯙뗄랴펦ꆣ 햽싔뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔ퟷ캪웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄뚯믺횮튻ꎬ듓벨킧뗄뷇뛈살뾴ꎬ닺튵뗄햽싔뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔풽룟ꎬ닺튵훐뗄웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧튲펦룃풽룟ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ닺튵뗄헾닟뮷뺳ꆢ뺺헹뮷뺳뫍닺튵벼쫵뗄늻좷뚨탔풽룟ꎬ닺튵훐뗄웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯펦룃쓜36
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 릻캪웳튵뒴퓬룼듳뗄볛횵ꆣ헢쫇틲캪ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯냯훺웳튵맦뇜쇋튻킩살ퟔ닺튵솴짏쿂폎뗄늻좷뚨탔ꎬ쪹웳튵뗄뺭펪룼볓컈뚨ꆣ 퓚헢훖늻좷뚨뗄햽싔뮷뺳훐ꎬ웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐듦퓚뗄퇓동웚좨뻍쳥쿖돶웤볛횵살ꆣ퓚닺튵뮷뺳늻쏷샊ꎬ쫐뎡쳵볾늻좷뚨뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ벴쪹ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯폐샻뿉춼ꎬ떫틲웤럧쿕첫듳ꎬ떼훂췆동ퟶ돶훘듳햽싔뻶닟뛔웳튵살쮵폅폚솢벴ퟶ돶뻶닟ꎬ튲뻍쫇쮵퇓동웚좨뗄볛횵듳폚퓚죧듋늻좷뚨뗄뮷뺳쿂쪵쪩ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뿉쓜듸살뗄볛횵ꆣ웳튵듋쪱닉좡늻ퟷ캪탐뚯ꎬ돖폐퇓동웚좨ꎬ뗈듽햽싔뮷뺳훰붥쟥컺쏷샊ꎬ퇓동웚좨뗄볛횵킡폚쪵쪩ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯쯹뿉쓜듸살뗄볛횵쪱ꎬ퓙닉좡탐뚯뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔뗄늿쫰폫쪵쪩ꆣ 웳튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뻶닟췹췹쏦쇙ퟅ뷏룟뗄늻좷뚨탔ꎬ샻폃뒫춳햽싔볛횵뫢솿릤뻟DCF쒣탍ꎬ뷏룟뗄늻좷뚨탔췹췹틢캶ퟅ뷏듳뗄헛쿖틲ퟓꎬ평듋뗃돶뗄햽싔볛횵듳듲헛뿛ꎬ훂쪹웳튵붫뻟폐뻞듳잱퓚볛횵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔뻜횮쏅췢ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ쏦뛔룟뛈늻좷뚨탔ꎬ맜샭닣튲폐럅웺럖컶릤뻟뷶뾿횱뻵ퟶ돶햽싔뻶닟뗄쟣쿲ꆣ헢킩맽폚놣쫘믲맽폚쎧ힲ뗄뻶닟쪹뗃웳튵늻쓜솢ퟣ뎤풶뗘뾼싇컊쳢ꆣ뛸퇓동웚좨캪뷢뻶듋컊쳢쳡릩쇋탂뗄쮼슷ꎺ웳튵뿉틔춨맽뗈듽붨솢퇓동웚좨ꎬ뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뻶닟닉좡놣쇴첬뛈ꎬ볈늻솢뿌럅웺튲늻슳쎧탐쫂ꎬ듽햽싔뮷뺳뷸튻늽쟥컺쏷샊뫳퓙ퟶ돶쿠펦톡퓱ꆣ 웳튵뗄쏦뛔늻좷뚨뮷뺳쪱뗄뗈듽탐캪쪵볊짏뻍쫇캪ퟔ벺뒴솢쇋튻룶퇓동웚좨ꎬ듋웚좨룸폨웳튵퓚캴살뮷뺳훰늽쏷샊뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬퟛ뫏뾼싇룷랽쏦틲쯘퓙ퟶ돶쫇럱ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯ꆢ믲헟뛔틑뺭쪵쪩ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄웳튵살쮵쫇럱뷸튻늽ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄뻶닟뗄좨샻ꆣ춬쪱퓚뗈듽뗄맽돌훐ꎬ웳튵폐뿉쓜믱뗃탂뗄톡퓱믺믡ꆣ뗈듽뗄볛횵ꎬ튲뻍쫇퇓동웚좨뗄볛횵폫웳튵쏦쇙뗄늻좷뚨탔쏜쟐쿠맘ꆣMcGrath뫍Nerkarꎨ2004ꎩ펦폃웚좨쮼쿫퓚뛔쏀맺훆튩튵퇐랢춶햽싔뗄퇐뺿훐랢쿖ꎬ쯦ퟅ웳튵쏦쇙뗄햽싔뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔뗄붵뗍ꎬ퇓동웚좨뗄볛횵복킡ꆣ듋쪱ꎬ웳튵뗄ퟮ폅톡퓱캪솢벴ퟶ돶ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔뻶닟ꎻ랴횮ꎬ죴웳튵쏦쇙뗄햽싔뮷뺳룟뛈늻좷뚨ꎬ퓲퇓동웚좨뗄볛횵뷏듳ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ햽싔뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨돌뛈쫇펰쿬퇓동웚좨볛횵뗄훷튪틲쯘ꎬ쟒폫퇓동웚좨뗄볛횵듳킡돊헽쿲맘쾵ꆣ 37
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 퇓동웚좨볛횵퇓동웚좨 0 햽싔뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔 춼3-4 퇓동웚좨뗄볛횵 Figure3-4 Value of Defer Options ퟛ짏쯹쫶ꎬ퓚퇓동웚좨볛횵풽듳쪱ꎬ웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄뚯믺풽듳ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯쯹쓜듸살뗄웳튵벨킧튲풽룟ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵ꎬ뛔폚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔훐듦퓚뗄퇓동웚좨쿖쿳ꎬ떱웳튵쯹퓚닺튵헾닟뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔ꆢ뺺헹뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔뫍닺튵벼쫵뗄늻좷뚨탔풽듳쪱ꎬ퇓동웚좨뗄볛횵풽듳ꎬ뛸웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧풽룟ꆣ퇓동웚좨볛횵쫇ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔벨킧뗄헽쿲펰쿬틲쯘ꆣ틲듋ꎬ퓚듋쳡돶놾컄뗄뗚쯄룶볙짨ꎺ Hꎺ웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐퇓동웚좨뗄볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧폐헽쿲펰쿬ꆣ퇓동웚좨04뗄볛횵풽듳ꎬ벴햽싔뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔풽룟ꎬ웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧풽룟ꆣ 38
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 뗚쯄헂 햽싔웚좨볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧펰쿬뗄쪵횤볬퇩 퓚짏튻헂훐ꎬ컒쏇듓샭싛짏닻쫶쇋쯄샠햽싔웚좨뗄볛횵뛔웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄펰쿬ꎬ늢쳡돶쇋쯄룶볙짨ꆣ퓚헢튻헂훐ꎬ컒쏇붫퓚틔짏샭싛볙짨뗄믹뒡짏뛔햽싔웚좨뗄볛횵뛔웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄펰쿬뷸탐쪵횤볬퇩ꎬ 춨맽뛔짏쫐릫쮾뗄쪵횤퇐뺿살퇩횤샭싛뗄뿉뾿뛈ꆣ 쪵횤볬퇩쒣탍 돵쪼샭싛볙짨 춨맽짏튻헂럖뇰뛔쯄훖샠탍뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵폫웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄맘쾵럖컶ꎬ컒쏇쳡돶뗄쯄룶볙짨쫇ꎺ Hꎺ웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐뮻웚좨뗄볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧폐헽쿲펰쿬ꆣ뮻웚좨01뗄볛횵풽듳ꎬ벴닺튵뗄폃탔풽룟ꎬ웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧풽룟ꆣ Hꎺ웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐췋돶웚좨뗄볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧폐헽쿲펰쿬ꆣ췋돶웚좨02뗄볛횵풽듳ꎬ벴닺튵솴뗄벼쫵틀듦뛈풽룟ꎬ웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧풽룟ꆣ Hꎺ웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐퓶뎤웚좨뗄볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧폐헽쿲펰쿬ꆣ퓶뎤웚좨03뗄볛횵풽듳ꎬ벴닺튵뒦폚짺쏼훜웚뗄풽퓧웚ꎬ웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧풽룟ꆣ Hꎺ웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐퇓동웚좨뗄볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧폐헽쿲펰쿬ꆣ퇓동웚좨04뗄볛횵풽듳ꎬ벴햽싔뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔풽룟ꎬ웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧풽룟ꆣ 쪵횤볬퇩슷뺶 쪵횤볬퇩맽돌붫럖캪솽늽살뷸탐ꆣ 쫗쿈ꎬ듓룷닺튵쓚늿뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯쮮욽폫벨킧뗄쿠맘럖컶ꎬ볬퇩룷닺튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯쮮욽뛔웳튵벨킧뗄펰쿬ꆣ 좻뫳ꎬ룹뻝뗚튻늽볬퇩뗃떽뗄뷡맻ꎬ춨맽볬퇩룷룶닺튵뗄닺튵쳘헷뗄닮틬탔ꎨ벴햽싔웚좨볛횵뗄닮틬탔ꎩ폫듋닺튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뇭쿖뗄닮틬횮볤뗄맘쾵ꎬ좷뚨펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵ꎬ튲뻍쫇늻춬샠탍뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쫇럱뛔웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯폐펰쿬ꆣ 39
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 횸뇪쳥쾵뗄짨볆 ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄닢뛈횸뇪 놾컄퓚컄쿗ퟛ쫶훐틑뺭맩쓉쇋닢뛈ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뎣폃뗄튻킩횸뇪ꎬ좨뫢횸뇪뗄폐킧탔늢뾼싇떽쫽뻝뗄뿉믱뗃탔ꎬퟮ훕톡좡뺭탞헽뗄퓶볓횵횸쫽VASퟷ캪놾쪵횤볬퇩뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯닢뛈횸뇪ꎺ 퓶볓횵−쮰뫳뺻샻죳+헽뎣샻죳VAS=쿺쫛뛮−쮰뫳뺻샻죳+헽뎣샻죳 ꎨꎩ 쿺쫛뛮−닉릺뛮−쮰뫳뺻샻죳+뺻닺×욽뻹뺻닺쫕틦싊=쿺쫛뛮−쮰뫳뺻샻죳+뺻닺×욽뻹뺻닺쫕틦싊릫쪽훐쿺쫛뛮뫍쮰뫳뺻샻죳뿉틔횱뷓듓짏쫐릫쮾쓪놨뗄샻죳뇭믱ꎬ웤훐쿺쫛뛮벴훷펪튵컱쫕죫ꆣ 뺻닺춨맽닺뢺햮뇭훐뗄ퟜ닺뫍ퟜ뢺햮볤뷓믱뗃ꎺ 뺻닺ꎽퟜ닺-ퟜ뢺햮 ꎨꎩ 닉릺뛮뇈뷏뢴퓓ꎬ컞램횱뷓듓쓪놨훐뗃떽쫽뻝ꎬ떫쫇뿉틔볤뷓믱뗃ꆣ쿖뷰쇷솿뇭훐릫늼쇋릫쮾놾쓪뛈릺싲짌욷ꆢ뷓쫜샍컱쯹횧뢶뗄쿖뷰ꎬ뿉틔춨맽펦뢶쿮쒿뫍듦믵뗄뗷헻뗃떽닉릺뛮ꎬ볆쯣랽램죧쿂ꎺ 닉릺뛮= ꎨ웳튵릺싲짌욷ꆢ뷓쫜샍컱뗄쿖뷰횧돶–웚쒩풤뢶뿮+웚돵풤뢶뿮+웚쒩펦뢶뿮–웚돵펦뢶뿮+웚쒩펦뢺욱뻝-웚돵펦뢶욱뻝ꎩ / ꎨ1+닉릺짌욷뗄퓶횵쮰싊ꎩ – 웚쒩듦믵+웚돵듦믵 ꎨꎩ 룹뻝짏쫐릫쮾뗄탅쾢엻슶뷡릹ꎬ쿺쫛뛮닉폃쓪뛈닆컱놨뇭훐릫늼뗄놾웚훷펪튵컱쫕죫ꆣ폐늿럖짏쫐릫쮾쫇뛠풪뮯뺭펪ꎬ믡짦벰떽돽쇋ퟝ쿲닺튵솴틔췢뗄튵컱ꎬ틲듋튪쳞돽헢늿럖튵컱듸살뗄쫕죫ꆣ쮰뫳뺻샻죳닉폃쓪놨훐뗄놾웚뺻샻죳쫽뻝ꆣ 욽뻹뺻닺쫕틦싊쫇횸탐튵헻쳥뗄욽뻹뺻닺쫕틦싊쮮욽ꎬ춨맽볆쯣탐튵훐쯹폐짏쫐릫쮾뗄뺻샻죳ퟜ뫍뫍뺻닺ퟜ뫍살뗃떽ꎺ 욽뻹뺻닺쫕틦싊=탐튵샻죳ퟜ뫍/탐튵뺻닺ퟜ뫍 ꎨꎩ 웳튵벨킧횸뇪 춨뎣뫢솿웳튵뗄벨킧믡뾼달웳튵뗄펯샻탔뫍돉뎤탔솽룶랽쏦ꎬ틲듋ꎬ폃웳튵뗄펯샻탔횸뇪뫍돉뎤탔횸뇪살뛈솿웳튵벨킧쮮욽ꆣ뾼싇떽컒쏇쫇뫢솿ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔뛔웳튵헻쳥뗄펰쿬ꎬ뛸늻뷶뷶쫇뛔폚막뚫샻틦뗄펰쿬ꎬ헢샯톡좡ퟜ닺쫕틦싊ROAퟷ캪펯샻탔뗄횸뇪뛸럇뺻닺쫕틦싊ROEꆣ 40
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 뺻샻죳 ROA = ꎨꎩ 욽뻹ퟜ닺웤훐욽뻹ퟜ닺캪웚돵ퟜ닺폫웚쒩ퟜ닺뗄욽뻹횵ꆣ 뮻웚좨볛횵뗄닢뛈횸뇪 퓚짏튻헂훐틑뺭럖컶맽ꎬ닺튵뗄폃탔쳘헷뢳폨쪵쪩ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄웳튵뮻웚좨볛횵ꆣ웳튵퓚쪵쪩ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐ꎬ죧맻쫐뎡쳵볾ꆢ헾닟뮷뺳믲헟쫇웳튵ퟔ짭춻좻랢짺훘듳뇤룯ꎬ떼훂웳튵뇘탫ퟶ돶햽싔뗷헻ꎬ쫂쿈붨솢뗄뮻웚좨붫냯훺웳튵붫뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄춶퓚쫊떱뗄쳵볾쿂뮻캪웤쯻햽싔틢춼ꆣ쯼폫웳튵쯹퓚닺튵뗄닺폃탔ꎬ벼쫵폃탔틔벰쿺쫛쟾뗀폃탔쏜쟐쿠맘ꆣ 뛔폚뮻웚좨살쮵ꎬ죧맻웳튵쯹퓚닺튵뗄뗤탍닺뗄폃탔뫜잿ꎬ퓲듋닺폃ퟷ쯻폃뗄뿉탐탔뷏킡ꎬ튻떩ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯쪵쪩맽돌훐웳튵폶떽틢쿫늻떽뗄쫂볾ꎬ헢쿮햽싔춶뿉쓜캪웳튵듸살뷏듳뗄쯰쪧ꆣ틲듋ꎬ웳튵쯹퓚닺튵뗄폃탔풽잿ꎬ뮻웚좨뗄볛횵풽듳ꆣ 쯹틔ꎬ뮻웚좨뗄볛횵ꎬ뿉틔춨맽닢뛈닺튵뗄폃탔쳘탔살뗃떽ꆣ헢샯ꎬ탨튪ퟛ뫏뾼싇죽룶랽쏦뗄틲쯘ꎺ닺뗄폃탔ꆢ벼쫵뗄폃탔뫍쿺쫛쟾뗀뗄폃탔ꆣ놾컄닉폃볒움럖램뛔짏쫶죽룶쳘탔뷸탐움럖ꎬ뻟쳥움럖뇪ힼ죧쿂ꎺ 뇭4-1 뮻웚좨볛횵닢뛈 Table 4-1 Valuing of Switch options 닺튵쳘탔 1럖 2럖 3럖 4럖 5럖 닺폃탔 럇뎣뗍 뇈뷏뗍 훐탔 뇈뷏룟 럇뎣룟 벼쫵폃탔 럇뎣뗍 뇈뷏뗍 훐탔 뇈뷏룟 럇뎣룟 쿺쫛쟾뗀폃탔 럇뎣뗍 뇈뷏뗍 훐탔 뇈뷏룟 럇뎣룟 ퟮ훕뗄볙짨볬퇩붫닉좡죽쿮횸뇪뗄욽뻹횵ퟷ캪볬퇩뗄쫤죫쫽뻝ꎬ헢퇹쓜릻ퟛ뫏뾼싇떽닺튵뗄폃쳘탔ꎬ쳥쿖좫쏦뗄움볛뷡맻ꆣ 췋돶웚좨볛횵뗄닢뛈횸뇪 평짏튻헂뗄럖컶뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ닺튵솴뗄짏쿂폎횮볤벼쫵틀듦뛈풽잿뗄웳튵ꎬ퓚폶떽늻샻뗄췢늿뮷뺳뛸웈늻뗃틑톡퓱췋돶쪱ꎬ뿉쓜캪웳튵듸살뗄쯰쪧붫믡풽듳ꎬ튲뻍쫇췋돶듋탐튵듸살뗄듺볛풽룟ꆣ틲듋ꎬ웳튵퓚햽싔횴탐돵웚붨솢췋돶웚좨뗄볛횵튲풽듳ꆣ룅삨뗘쮵ꎬ뻍쫇닺튵솴뗄벼쫵틀듦뛈풽룟ꎬ췋돶웚좨뗄볛횵풽듳ꆣ 쯹틔놾컄닉폃닺튵솴뗄벼쫵틀듦뛈룟뗍ퟷ캪췋돶웚좨볛횵닢뛈횸뇪ꎬ뻟쳥뚨솿튲평볒움럖뗃돶ꎬ움럖뇪ힼ죧쿂ꎺ 41
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 뇭4-2 췋돶웚좨볛횵닢뛈 Table 4-2 Valuing of Quit options 닺튵쳘탔 1럖 2럖 3럖 4럖 5럖 닺튵솴벼쫵틀듦뛈 럇뎣뗍 뇈뷏뗍 훐탔 뇈뷏룟 럇뎣룟 퓶뎤웚좨볛횵뗄닢뛈횸뇪 뒦폚짺쏼훜웚퓧웚뗄닺튵ꎬ춨뎣닺튵뗄퓶뎤싊뚼뻟폐뇈뷏듳뗄늨뚯탔ꎬ뛸헢훖늨뚯탔캪햽싔웚좨듸살볛횵ꆣ떱닺튵랢햹쮳샻쪱ꎬ닺튵뿉쓜뺭샺볓쯙뗄랢햹맽돌ꎻ죧맻닺튵늻탒폶떽췢늿뮷뺳뇤뮯뗄돥믷ꎬ닺튵뗄퓶뎤싊뿉쓜톸쯙쿂붵ꆣ뛸뛔폚돉쫬뗄닺튵살쮵ꎬ룷랽쏦뗄좷뚨탔뚼뇈뷏잿ꎬ닺튵뗄퓶뎤싊춨뎣뇈뷏욽컈ꎬ붨솢퓶뎤웚좨뗄볛횵튲뇈뷏킡ꆣ 틲듋ꎬ컒쏇춨맽닺튵짺쏼훜웚뗄퓧췭살닢뛈퓶뎤웚좨볛횵뗄듳킡ꎬ뻟쳥뚨솿평볒움럖뗃돶ꎬ움럖뇪ힼ죧쿂ꎺ 뇭4-3 퓶뎤웚좨볛횵닢뛈 Table 4-3 Valuing of Growth options 닺튵쳘탔 1럖 2럖 3럖 4럖 5럖 닺튵뗄짺쏼훜웚 럇뎣퓧웚 퓧웚떽훐웚 훐웚 훐웚떽뫳웚 뫳웚 헢샯탨튪힢틢뗄쫇ꎬ죧맻볬퇩뷡맻쫇쿠맘뗄ꎬ퓲ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧펦폫닺튵짺쏼훜웚뗄듲럖돊뢺쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ틲캪짺쏼훜웚뗄퓧웚놻뢳폨뗄럖쫽뇈뷏뗍ꆣ 퇓동웚좨볛횵뗄닢뛈횸뇪 짏튻헂틑뺭럖컶맽ꎬ퓚닺튵뮷뺳늻쏷샊ꎬ쫐뎡쳵볾늻좷뚨뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ벴쪹ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯폐샻뿉춼ꎬ떫틲웤럧쿕첫듳ꎬ떼훂췆동ퟶ돶훘듳햽싔뻶닟뛔웳튵살쮵폅폚솢벴ퟶ돶뻶닟ꎬ튲뻍쫇쮵퇓동웚좨뗄볛횵듳폚퓚죧듋늻좷뚨뗄뮷뺳쿂쪵쪩ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뿉쓜듸살뗄볛횵ꆣ 틲듋ꎬ떱닺튵햽싔뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔풽듳쪱ꎬ퇓동웚좨뗄볛횵풽듳ꆣ놾컄닉폃햽싔뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔ퟷ캪퇓동웚좨뗄닢뛈횸뇪ꆣ햽싔뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔훷튪살ퟔ죽룶랽쏦ꎺ헾닟뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔ꆢ뺺헹뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔뫍닺튵벼쫵뗄늻좷뚨탔ꆣ놾컄쓢뛔헢죽쿮횸뇪닉폃볒듲럖뗄랽쪽믱뗃쫽뻝ꎬ움럖뇪ힼ죧쿂ꎺ 42
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 뇭4-4퇓동웚좨볛횵닢뛈 Table 4-4 Valuing of Defer options 닺튵쳘탔 1럖 2럖 3럖 4럖 5럖 헾닟뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔 럇뎣늻좷뚨 뇈뷏늻좷뚨 훐탔 뇈뷏좷뚨 럇뎣좷뚨 뺺헹뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔 럇뎣늻좷뚨 뇈뷏늻좷뚨 훐탔 뇈뷏좷뚨 럇뎣좷뚨 닺튵벼쫵뗄늻좷뚨탔 럇뎣늻좷뚨 뇈뷏늻좷뚨 훐탔 뇈뷏좷뚨 럇뎣좷뚨 ퟮ훕뗄볙짨볬퇩붫닉좡죽쿮횸뇪뗄욽뻹횵ퟷ캪볬퇩뗄쫤죫쫽뻝ꎬ헢퇹쓜릻ퟛ뫏뾼싇떽닺튵햽싔뮷뺳늻좷뚨탔뗄뛠룶살풴ꎬ쳥쿖좫쏦뗄움볛뷡맻ꆣ 퇹놾톡좡폫쫽뻝쫕벯 놾컄쾣췻춨맽닺튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈폫웳튵벨킧뗄쿠맘탔럖컶틔벰뿧닺튵럖컶ꎬ뾼달햽싔웚좨뗄볛횵뛔웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄펰쿬ꆣ캪쇋뗃떽룼뛠뗄쫽뻝뗣ꎬ늢좨뫢쫽뻝뗄뿉믱뗃탔ꎬ놾컄톡좡쇋A막짏쫐릫쮾훐20룶닺튵뗄릲653볒짏쫐릫쮾ퟷ캪퇐뺿뛔쿳ꆣ탐튵뗄뮮럖뇪ힼ훷튪틀뻝훐맺횤볠믡릫늼뗄ꆶ짏쫐릫쮾탐튵럖샠횸틽ꆷꆣ쪱볤뿧뛈짏톡좡쇋ퟮ뷼5쓪ꎨ2003쓪훁2007쓪ꎩ뗄쫽뻝ꎬퟛ뫏뾼싇쇋벰쪱탔뫍좫쏦탔ꆣ 20룶퇹놾닺튵쇐뇭볻뇭4-5ꆣ룷닺튵훐냼삨뗄퇹놾웳튵쏻떥닎볻뢽슼1ꆣ 뇭4-5 퇹놾닺튵쇐뇭 Table 4-5 List of the sample industries 뗧솦ꆢ헴웻ꆢ죈쮮뗄짺닺뫍릩펦튵 쪳욷볓릤튵 뗧웷믺킵벰웷닄훆퓬튵 춨탅벰쿠맘짨놸훆퓬튵 럄횯튵 췁쒾릤돌붨훾튵 럾ힰ벰웤쯻쿋캬훆욷훆퓬튵 튽튩훆퓬튵 뫚즫뷰쫴튱솶벰톹퇓볓릤튵 틻쇏훆퓬튵 뮯톧풭쇏벰뮯톧훆욷훆퓬튵 틇웷틇뇭벰컄뮯ꆢ냬릫폃믺킵훆퓬튵 붻춨퓋쫤짨놸훆퓬튵 폐즫뷰쫴튱솶벰톹퇓볓릤튵 쎺첿닉톡튵 퓬횽벰횽훆욷튵 웕춨믺킵훆퓬튵 폃짨놸훆퓬튵 쪳욷볓릤튵 ퟔ살쮮뗄짺닺뫍릩펦튵 43
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 춼4-1룷탐튵퇹놾릫쮾럖늼쟩뿶 Figure 4-1 Distribution of sample companies in different industries 짏쫐릫쮾뗄닆컱쫽뻝훷튪살ퟔWind뷰죚쫽뻝뿢틔벰뮦짮솽쫐헽붻쯹릫늼뗄짏쫐릫쮾뗄쓪놨ꆣ룷닺튵쓚뗄릫쮾늢쎻폐좫늿쓉죫퇹놾훐ꎬ퇹놾톡퓱ퟱ톭죧쿂풭퓲ꎺꎨ1ꎩ2003쓪틔잰퓚뮦짮솽쫐짏쫐뗄릫쮾ꎻꎨ2ꎩ쳞돽ST믲헟퓚2003훁2007쓪웚볤퓸뺭ST뗄릫쮾ꎻꎨ3ꎩ쳞돶뫡쿲뛠풪뮯튵컱뇈뷏뢴퓓뗄릫쮾ꎻꎨ4ꎩ쳞돽쓪놨쫽뻝좱쪧뗄릫쮾ꆣ 뛔폚쎿룶짏쫐릫쮾퇹놾ꎬ놾컄듓웤2003 쓪훁2007 쓪룷쓪뛈닆컱놨뇭훐햪슼훷펪튵컱쫕죫ꆢ뺻샻죳ꆢퟜ닺ꆢퟜ뢺햮ꆢ뺻닺ꆢ웚돵듦믵ꆢ웚쒩듦믵ꆢ웚돵펦뢶헋뿮ꆢ웚쒩펦뢶헊뿮ꆢ웚돵펦뢶욱뻝ꆢ웚쒩펦뢶욱뻝ꆢ웚돵풤뢶헋뿮ꆢ웚쒩풤뢶헊뿮ꆢ벰릺싲짌욷ꆢ뷓쫜샍컱횧뢶뗄쿖뷰릲볆뷼15000 룶쫽뻝뗣ꎬ늢평듋볆쯣돶룷쓪뗄ퟝ쿲뛈횸쫽VAS뫍ROAꆣ 쯄룶랽쏦뗄닺튵쳘탔ꎬ냼삨닺튵폃탔ꆢ닺튵뗄짺쏼훜웚ꆢ닺튵솴뗄벼쫵틀듦뛈뫍닺튵뮷뺳늻좷뚨탔뗄닢뛈횸뇪훷튪춨맽볒듲럖뗄랽쪽믱뗃ꆣ훷튪뗄뗷닩뛔쿳냼삨짏몣붻춨듳톧뫍뢴떩듳톧뗄뺭볃맜샭쇬폲뗄톧헟ꆢ춶틸탐훐듓쫂짏쫐릫쮾믹놾쏦퇐뺿뗄볒ꆢ톯탐튵뗄쿠맘죋쪿뗈ꆣ릲랢럅컊뻭40럖ꎬ믘쫕33럖ꎬ웤훐폐킧컊뻭29럝ꆣ뻟쳥뗄뗷닩컊뻭닎볻뢽슼2ꆣ 44
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 쫽뻝뒦샭뫍볬퇩뷡맻 닺튵쓚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯폫웳튵벨킧뗄쿠맘탔볬퇩 춨맽짏쫐릫쮾뗄닆컱쫽뻝ꎬ룹뻝릫쪽ꆢꆢ뫍 볆쯣돶룷릫쮾2003훁2007쓪쎿튻쓪뗄VAS뫍ROAꆣ캪쇋붵뗍컳닮ꎬ룷닺튵쓚짏쫐릫쮾뗄VAS뫍ROA뗄볆쯣뷡맻뚼좡5쓪뗄뻹횵ퟷ캪쿠맘탔럖컶뗄쫤죫쫽뻝ꆣ 퓋폃SPSS죭볾ꎬ럖뇰퓚룷닺튵쓚뛔릫쮾뗄VAS뻹횵뫍ROA뻹횵뷸탐Pearson쿠맘탔볬퇩ꎬ닩뾴ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯폫웳튵벨킧횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ뗃떽뗄쿠맘쾵쫽뫍쿔훸탔죧쿂뇭ꎬ쿪볻뢽슼4ꆣ 뇭4-6 룷닺튵뢽볓횵싊ꎨVASꎩ폫ퟜ닺쫕틦싊ꎨROAꎩ뗄쿠맘탔볬퇩뷡맻 Table 4-6 Analysis result of correlation between VAS and ROA Pearson 닺튵쓚릫쮾 퇹놾닺튵 쿔훸탔쮮욽 쿠맘쾵쫽 퇹놾쫽 뗧솦ꆢ헴웻ꆢ죈쮮뗄짺닺뫍릩펦튵 47 뗧웷믺킵벰웷닄훆퓬튵 (*) 42 럄횯튵 37 럾ힰ벰웤쯻쿋캬훆욷훆퓬튵 14 뫚즫뷰쫴튱솶벰톹퇓볓릤튵 (*) 32 뮯톧풭쇏벰뮯톧훆욷훆퓬튵 90 붻춨퓋쫤짨놸훆퓬튵 (*) 61 쎺첿닉톡튵 (*) 13 웕춨믺킵훆퓬튵 33 쪳욷볓릤튵 (*) 23 춨탅벰쿠맘짨놸훆퓬튵 21 쪳욷훆퓬튵 (*) 6 췁쒾릤돌붨훾튵 26 튽튩훆퓬튵 (**) 73 틇웷틇뇭벰컄뮯ꆢ냬릫폃믺킵훆퓬튵 12 틻쇏훆퓬튵 23 폐즫뷰쫴튱솶벰톹퇓볓릤튵 23 퓬횽벰횽훆욷튵 (*) 20 폃짨놸훆퓬튵 44 ퟔ살쮮뗄짺닺뫍릩펦튵 5 * Correlation is significant at the level (2-tailed). ** Correlation is significant at the level (2-tailed). 45
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 듓쿠맘탔볬퇩뗄뷡맻훐뿉틔뾴떽ꎬ퓚놾컄쯹퇐뺿뗄20룶탐튵훐ꎬ폐5룶탐튵뗄VAS폫ROA퓚뗄쿔훸탔쮮욽짏쿔훸헽쿠맘ꎻ폐2룶탐튵뗄VAS폫ROA퓚뗄쿔훸탔쮮욽짏쿔훸뢺쿠맘ꎻ폐1룶탐튵뗄VAS폫ROA퓚뗄쿔훸탔쮮욽짏쿔훸헽쿠맘ꆣ 평듋뿉볻ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뛔웳튵벨킧뗄펰쿬퓚늻춬뗄닺튵훐쫇늻춬뗄ꆣ헢훷튪뿉틔맩틲폚늻춬닺튵쯹뻟폐뗄닺튵쳘탔늻춬ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뛔웳튵벨킧뗄펰쿬뮹튪틲닺튵뛸틬ꎬ폈웤쫇놾컄퓚뗚죽헂뗄쳖싛훐쳡돶뗄벸뗣닺튵쳘탔ꎺ닺튵뗄폃탔ꎨ닺ꆢ벼쫵ꆢ쿺쫛쟾뗀ꎩꆢ닺튵솴뗄벼쫵틀듦뛈ꆢ닺튵짺쏼훜웚뫍햽싔뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔ꎨ헾닟ꆢ뺺헹ꆢ벼쫵ꎩꎬ뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧믡닺짺튻뚨뗄펰쿬ꆣ 듓럖컶뷡맻살뾴ꎬ뗧웷믺킵벰웷닄훆퓬튵ꆢ뫚즫뷰쫴튱솶벰톹퇓볓릤튵ꆢ쎺첿닉톡튵ꆢ쪳욷훆퓬튵ꆢ퓬횽벰횽훆욷튵뫍튽튩훆퓬튵뗄VAS폫ROA쿠맘탔볬퇩뷡맻캪쿔훸헽쿠맘ꆣ볲떥뗄뛔헢킩탐튵뗄튻킩쳘탔뷸탐럖컶ꎬ폈웤쫇놾컄뗚죽헂뗄럖컶훐쳡떽뗄펰쿬쯄샠햽싔웚좨볛횵뗄닺튵쳘탔ꎬ뿉틔랢쿖헢킩닺튵뚼훁짙퓚쒳튻쳘탔짏뻟폐뇈뷏춻돶뗄쳘뗣ꆣ뇈죧쮵ꎬ컒맺뗄튽튩훆퓬튵쫇튻룶뗤탍뗄뒦폚닺튵짺쏼훜웚퓧웚떽훐웚뗃랢햹뷗뛎ꎬ늢쟒닺튵뗄폃탔쿠뛔뷏잿ꎬ춬쪱튽튩훆퓬튵쯹쏦쇙뗄햽싔뮷뺳늻좷뚨탔튲쫇뇈뷏룟뗄ꆣ 쿂쏦컒쏇붫럖뇰뛔헢쇹룶닺튵훐뇈뷏뗤탍뗄벸룶닺튵뗄쳘탔뷸탐튻킩볲떥뗄럖컶ꆣ 뗧웷믺킵벰웷닄훆퓬튵 내헕훐맺횤볠믡릫늼뗄ꆶ짏쫐릫쮾탐튵럖샠횸틽ꆷꎬ뗧웷믺킵벰웷닄훆퓬튵냼삨틔쿂튻킩ퟓ탐튵ꎺ뗧믺훆퓬튵ꆢ쫤엤뗧벰뿘훆짨놸훆퓬튵ꆢ뗧릤웷킵훆퓬튵ꆢ죕폃뗧웷훆퓬튵ꆢ헕쏷웷뻟훆퓬튵ꆢ웤쯻뗧웷믺킵훆퓬튵뫍뗧웷믺킵탞샭튵ꆣ놾컄톡좡뗄뗧웸믺킵벰웷닄훆퓬튵짏쫐릫쮾뛠캪볒폃뗧웷훆퓬튵릫쮾ꎬ맊훷튪럖컶볒뗧튵뗄닺튵쳘탔ꆣ 컒맺볒뗧튵랢햹틑뷸죫돉쫬웚ꎬ헢풤쪾ퟅ쫐뎡쟷폚놥뫏ꆢ닺쓜맽쪣ꆢ뺺헹볓뻧ꆢ닺튵벯훐뛈쳡룟폫욽뻹샻죳싊쿂붵뗈쳘헷돉캪뎣첬ꆣ탅쾢닺튵늿릫늼뗄춳볆쫽뻝쿔쪾ꎬ2005쓪컒맺볒뗧훆퓬튵욽뻹샻죳뷶캪ꎥꆣ쒿잰볒뗧튵랢햹폶떽뗄ퟮ듳쓑쳢쫇닺욷맘볼늿볾뫍뫋탄벼쫵틀삵뷸뿚ꎬ좱짙ퟔ훷뾪랢퇐훆늢펵폐횪쪶닺좨뗄샻벼쫵ꆣ뻝춳볆ꎬ컒맺볒뗧웳튵풼90%퓚ퟶOEMꎬ샽죧ꎬ좫쟲ퟮ듳뗄캢늨슯훆퓬짌룱삼쫋ꎬ폐쇹돉닺욷쳹뗄쫇맺췢욷없캢늨슯뗄짌뇪ꆣ뒦폚볛횵솴훐뗄늻샻캻훃쫇볒뗧웳튵펯샻쓜솦닮뗄풭틲횮튻ꆣ 볒뗧튵뗄맦쒣뺭볃뇈뷏쏷쿔ꆣ맦쒣뺭볃쫇펰쿬쫐뎡뷡릹뗄훘튪뇤솿ꎬ맦쒣뺭볃닺솿폫쫐뎡탨쟳뗄쿠뛔맦쒣뻶뚨쇋쫐뎡쯹쓜죝쓉뗄뎧짌쫽솿ꆣ맦쒣뺭볃풽듳ꎬ퓲퓚튻뚨뗄쫐뎡탨쟳쿂죝쓉뗄뎧짌뻍풽짙ꎬ쫐뎡벯훐뛈풽룟ꆣ맦쒣뺭볃뗄듦퓚뻶뚨쇋컒맺볒뗧튵짺닺벯훐뗄쟷쫆풽46
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 살풽쏷쿔ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ컒맺볒뗧튵뗄뷸죫뇚생훰늽짽룟ꎬ냼삨맦쒣뺭볃뇚생ꆢ놾뇚생ꆢ벼쫵뇚생틔벰퓚캻뎧짌듦퓚쯹떼훂뗄쓚짺탔뇚생ꎬ죧쏻없닺욷뺭맽뛠쓪뗄탅폾샛볆ꆢ맣룦탻뒫ꎬ웤닺욷탎쿳틑짮죫죋탄ꎬ퓚쿻럑헟탄쒿훐죏횪뛈뇈뷏룟ꎬ퓲탂뷸죫웳튵캪쇋컼틽맋뿍뛔ퟔ벺닺욷뗄욫뫃뇘탫뮨럑뇈퓚캻헟룼뛠뗄펪쿺돉놾ꎬ헢튲떼훂쇋쫐뎡뗄벯훐ꆣ 듓2001쓪틔살ꎬ컒맺볒뗧웳튵뾪쪼튻룄풭쿈듳듲볛룱햽뗄뛱탔뺺헹룱뻖ꎬ훰늽ퟟ쿲뫏ퟷꆢ솪뫏ꎬ튵쓚볦늢훘ퟩ뫍뿧맺뫏ퟷ늽랥쏷쿔볓뿬ꎬ닺튵벯훐뗄쟷쫆쿖틑쟥컺뗘쿔쿖돶살ꆣ퓚닊뗧ꆢ쾴틂믺ꆢ뗧뇹쿤ꆢ캢늨슯뗈닺튵ꎬ잰죽볒웳튵쯹햼뗄쫐뎡럝뛮ퟜ뫍뻹틑뎬맽50%ꎬ뛸쟒헢튻쫽ퟖ헽퓚늻뛏쳡룟ꆣ쯦ퟅ볒뗧튵쿲ퟝ짮랢햹틔벰쿻럑헟뛔욷없쿻럑틢쪶뗄쳡룟ꎬ볒뗧쫐뎡럝뛮붫훷튪벯훐퓚벸룶듳욷없훐ꎬ컒맺볒뗧튵뗄쫐뎡룱뻖붫돊쿖맑춷슢뛏첬쫆ꆣ 쯦ퟅ뺺헹풽살풽벤쇒ꎬ웳튵뗄뺭펪럧쿕튲풽살풽듳ꎬ돶쿖쇋헢퇹튻킩쳘헷ꎺ(1) 펰쿬뺺헹뗄뇤솿쏷쿔퓶볓ꎬ쟒뇤뮯쯙뛈풽살풽뿬ꆣ뺭볃좫쟲뮯ꆢ뮥솪췸뗄웕벰ꎬ쪹뗃뺺헹뮷뺳풽볓뢴퓓ꎬ풤닢탔듳듳붵뗍ꎬ쫐뎡늻좷뚨탔쳡룟ꆣ(2) 뺺헹폅쫆뗄뿉놣돖탔풽살풽뛌ꆣ(3)평폚맺쓚볒뗧탨쟳퓶뎤쟷뮺ꎬ닺욷릩맽폚쟳ꎬ쿺쫛쟾뗀돉캪볒뗧훆퓬짌뺺헹뗄맘볼ꆣ튻랽쏦ꎬ볒뗧훆퓬짌얬솦볓잿뛔쿺쫛쟾뗀폈웤쫇뛔쇣쫛훕뛋뗄뿘훆ꎬ솦헹복짙쿺쫛뮷뷚ꎬ뷚쪡쿺쫛럑폃ꎬ쪹쿺쫛쟾뗀쿲튵뮯ꆢ뇢욽뮯ꆢ뛠퇹뮯랽쿲랢햹ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ쯦ퟅ맺쏀ꆢ쯕쓾뗈듳탍볒뗧솬쯸뗪뗘캻늻뛏짏짽ꎬ쿺쫛쟾뗀뗄뿘훆쓜솦퓶잿ꎬ듳탍쇣쫛짌욾뷨웤맣삫뗄쫐뎡뢲룇쏦ꆢ닉릺맦쒣뫍돉놾폅쫆ꎬ퓚닺욷뚨볛뫍붻룮믵뿮뗈랽쏦뿘훆쓜솦뷸튻늽볓잿ꎬ볓뻧쇋볒뗧훆퓬짌횮볤뗄볛룱뺺헹ꆣ 퓚헢퇹뗄뮷뺳쿂ꎬ뫜뛠볒뗧웳튵톡퓱쇋ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯ꆣ뷼솽쓪살ꎬ짏폎풭닄쇏릩펦뷴헅ꆢ볛룱짏헇ꎬ뛸쿂폎쫐뎡뇚생퓶볓ꎬ듳럹쳡룟쇋볒뗧웳튵뗄붻틗돉놾ꆣ뻝춳볆ꎬ쒿잰헻룶볒뗧튵ꎬ웳튵뗄훆퓬돉놾횻햼ퟜ돉놾뗄53%ꎬ뛸쇷춨돉놾퓲햼46%ꆣ룟뛮뗄붻틗돉놾ꎬ늻뷶복짙쇋볒뗧웳튵뗄샻죳뿕볤ꎬ튲훆풼ퟅ웳튵퓋탐킧싊뫍헻쳥뺺헹쓜솦뗄쳡룟ꆣ폚쫇ꎬ볒뗧웳튵쿫춨맽볓잿볛횵솴돉풱횮볤뗄뫏ퟷ살믱좡뺺헹폅쫆ꎬ춨맽솪뫏ꆢ볦늢뗈랽쪽볓잿뛔짏폎릩펦짌볛횵솴뫍쿂폎뺭쿺짌볛횵솴뗄헻뫏ꆣ죧훷튪훆샤웳튵럗럗폫죕솢ꆢ죽퇳ꆢ뚫횥ꆢ짹놦뗈웳튵뫏ퟷ붨솢톹쯵믺짺닺믹뗘ꎬ2004쓪쏀뗄벯췅폫엊룖벯췅잩뚩햽싔솪쏋킭틩ꎬ뇭쏷헢킩웳튵튪볓잿짏폎닺튵볛횵솴뗄헻뫏ꆣ 평듋뿉볻ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뛔폚뗧웷믺킵벰웷닄훆퓬튵ꎬ폈웤쫇볒뗧닺튵살쮵쫇뻟폐헽쿲ퟷ폃뗄ꆣ웳튵닉좡ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔뿉틔쳡룟웳튵뗄튵벨ꎬ퓚벤쇒뗄뺺헹뮷뺳훐믱좡뺺헹폅쫆ꎬ쳡짽웳튵샻죳ꆣ 뫚즫뷰쫴튱솶벰톹퇓볓릤튵 47
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 내헕횤볠믡뗄ꆶ짏쫐릫쮾탐튵럖샠횸틽ꆷꎬ뫚즫뷰쫴튱솶벰톹퇓볓릤튵냼삨솶쳺튵ꆢ솶룖튵ꆢ룖톹퇓볓릤튵뫍쳺뫏뷰튱솶튵4룶ퟓ탐튵ꆣ쫂쪵짏ꎬ뫚즫뷰쫴튱솶벰톹퇓볓릤튵튲뻍쫇컒쏇춨뎣쯹쮵뗄룖쳺탐튵ꆣ 듓닺튵짺쏼훜웚살뾴ꎬ쯤좻쫀뷧룖쳺튵틑훰붥늽죫돉쫬믲쮥췋뷗뛎ꎬ컒맺룖쳺튵죔뻟폐뷏듳뗄짏짽뿕볤ꆣ컒맺룖쳺튵뺭맽뛠쓪붨짨ꎬ틑뺭탎돉냼삨뿳즽ꆢ징뷡ꆢ붹뮯ꆢ솶쳺ꆢ솶룖ꆢ퓾룖벰쿠맘뗄쳺뫏뷰ꆢ쓍믰닄쇏ꆢ첼쯘훆욷뗈늿쏅ퟩ돉뗄췪헻릤튵쳥쾵ꆣퟮ뷼벸쓪ꎬ룖쳺닺솿돖탸뿬쯙퓶뎤ꎬ쟒퓶뎤럹뛈쏷쿔듳폚쫀뷧ퟜ솿퓶뎤쮮욽ꎬ퓚웤쯻맺볒룖닺솿퓶뎤뮺싽뗄탎쫆쿂ꎬ컒맺룖닺솿퓚좫쟲ퟜ솿훐쯹햼럝뛮훰늽쳡룟ꆣ쒿잰ꎬ컒맺룖쳺닺튵맦쒣뻓쫀뷧뗚튻ꎬ닺솿햼좫쟲뗄20ꎥ틔짏ꆣ듓맺쓚탨쟳뾴ꎬ컒맺ퟔ닺룖닄뗄쫐뎡싺ퟣ싊퓚90ꎥퟳ폒ꆣ웕춨룖닄뗄탨쟳퓶뎤럅뮺ꎬ떫룟떵닺욷뗄쫐뎡탨쟳뗄좱뿚죔좻뫜듳ꆣ 듓닺튵뗄햽싔뮷뺳살뾴ꎬ폫맺췢랢듯맺볒쿠뇈ꎬ컒맺룖쳺튵벯훐뛈뮹뇈뷏뗍ꆣ헢늻떫볓뻧쇋맺쓚룖쳺쫐뎡뗄뺺헹돌뛈ꎬ튲믡붵뗍훐맺룖쳺튵퓚맺볊룖쳺쫐뎡훐뗄뺺헹솦ꆣ2004쓪컒맺잰15볒웳튵룖닺솿햼좫맺ퟜ닺솿뗄45%ꎬ뛸몫맺뷶웖쿮룖쳺뎧뗄룖닺솿뻍햼몫맺뗄65%ꎻ죕놾잰5볒룖쳺웳튵뗄룖닺솿햼좫죕놾룖닺솿뗄75%ꎻ얷쏋15맺6볒룖쳺웳튵룖닺솿햼얷쏋헻룶룖닺솿뗄74%ꎻ뛸램맺뗄낢주싥룖쳺릫쮾벸뫵쓒삨쇋램맺뗄룖쳺짺닺ꆣ뛸쟒ꎬ퓚헢15볒룖쳺벯췅훐ꎬ돽쇋놦룖맦쒣뷏듳ꎬ폅쫆뇈뷏춻돶췢ꎬ웤쯻14볒맦쒣쿠닮늻듳ꎬ헢퇹룼믡볓뻧맺쓚룖쳺쫐뎡뗄뺺헹돌뛈ꎬ듓뛸떼훂컞탲뺺헹ꆣ 룖쳺튵쫇뛔뫪맛뺭볃럇뎣쏴룐뗄탐튵ꎬ쯦ퟅ뫪맛뺭볃뗄뿬쯙랢햹ꎬ룖쳺탐튵뺭뎣쏦쇙ퟅ짏폎쳺뿳쪯볛룱듳럹짏헇뗄췾킲ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ떱뫪맛뺭볃뒦폚쿂탐훜웚쪱ꎬ룷쿮뺭볃믮뚯뚼럅뮺ꎬ룖쳺뗄탨쟳쯦횮쿂붵ꎬ룖쳺웳튵쏦쇙ퟅ쿂폎룖닄볛룱듳럹쳸쮮뗄럧쿕ꆣ틲듋ꎬ룖쳺탐튵훐뗄웳튵춨뎣쏦쇙ퟅ뇈뷏늻좷뚨뗄햽싔뮷뺳ꆣퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯폐훺폚룖쳺웳튵맦뇜헢킩늻좷뚨탔쯹듸살뗄럧쿕ꎬ쪹웳튵뗄랢햹놣돖욽컈ꆣ 퓚튻뚨쪱웚ꎬ룖쳺튵뗄펯샻쓜솦훷튪좡뻶폚짺닺맦쒣뫍짺닺킧싊ꆣ컒맺룖쳺튵닺튵벯훐뛈뗍ꎬ룖쳺훆퓬웳튵맦쒣뫍쫐뎡럝뛮뚼늻쫇뫜듳ꎬ틲듋ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈풽룟ꎬ풽폐훺폚퓶잿웳튵뗄슢뛏뗘캻ꎬ삩듳웳튵뗄쫐뎡럝뛮ꎬ룼뇣폚웳튵뛔닺튵솴짏쿂폎뗄뿘훆ꎬ틲듋퓚룖쳺튵ꎬ쳡룟ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯쮮욽뿉틔냯훺웳튵믱뗃뷏뫃뗄벨킧ꆣ ퟛ짏쯹쫶ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뛔룖쳺탐튵뗄펯샻뻟폐헽쿲ퟷ폃ꎬ폐훺폚룖쳺탐튵쳡룟벨킧ꆣ 쪳욷훆퓬튵 내헕횤볠믡뗄ꆶ짏쫐릫쮾탐튵럖샠횸틽ꆷꎬ쪳욷훆퓬튵냼삨룢뗣쳇맻훆퓬튵ꆢ죩훆욷훆퓬튵ꆢ맞춷쪳욷훆퓬튵ꆢ랢뷍훆퓬튵ꆢ뗷캶욷훆퓬튵뫍웤쯻쪳욷훆퓬튵벸룶ퟓ탐튵ꆣ 48
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 쒿잰ꎬ컒맺뗄쪳욷튵뷼쯆폚췪좫뺺헹ힴ첬ꎬ뷸죫뇚생킡ꎬ뿆벼몬솿늻룟ꎬ쏅볷뷏뗍ꎬ뺺헹럇뎣벤쇒ꆣ쪳욷쫇죋쏇뗄짺믮뇘탨욷ꎬ쿻럑헟닣쏦맣ꎬ웳튵쫜짧믡뺭볃늨뚯펰쿬킡ꆣ쪳욷튻냣떥볛뷏뗍ꎬ떫쿻럑솿듳ꆣ퓚헢훖쫐뎡뮷뺳쿂ꎬ욷없뫍쿺쫛췸싧쫇뺺헹좡쪤뗄쫗튪쳵볾ꆣ평폚쿺쫛뿍뮧쫽솿뛠ꆢ튵컱욵랱ꎬ웳튵춨뎣탨튪맜샭뛠훖쿺쫛쟾뗀ꆣ 폫쿻럑헟뛔쪳욷탨쟳뗄뛠퇹뮯쿠쫊펦ꎬ쪳욷쫐뎡짏탂닺욷ꆢ탂욷없닣돶늻쟮ꎬ뿉볻ꎬ쪳욷튵뗄닺튵뮷뺳뻶뚨쇋쯼쪮럖잿뗷뺭펪뗄쇩믮탔ꎬ웳튵튪믱좡늢놣돖폐샻뗄쫐뎡뗘캻ꎬ튻뚨튪벰쪱ힼ좷뗘룹뻝쫐뎡탨쟳뇤뚯뛸뗷헻ꆣ뛸쟒웤닺튵랢햹틑뷸죫쿠떱돉쫬뗄뷗뛎ꎬ퓚닺튵솴짏룷룶뮷뷚뗄튵뮯쮮욽뚼뇈뷏룟ꆢ쫐뎡뷡릹돉쫬ꎬ쯹틔튵뮯짺닺쓜춨맽삩듳짺닺맦쒣붵뗍돉놾ꎬ붫믡뇈ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄솪뫏짺닺룼폐폅쫆ꆣ틲듋ꎬ뛔폚쪳욷훆퓬웳튵살쮵ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯쮮욽풽룟ꎬ샭싛짏풽늻샻폚웳튵뗄튵컱췘햹뫍캴살돉뎤ꆣ 떫쫇ꎬ맦쒣뷏듳웳튵튲뻟폐킡웳튵컞뿉뇈쓢뗄폅쫆ꆣ평폚욷없뫍쿺쫛췸싧쫇쪳욷튵뺺헹좡쪤뗄쫗튪쳵볾ꎬ듳웳튵폐럡뢻뗄웳튵풴살횧독욷없붨짨ꎬ춨맽잰쿲헻뫏붨솢ퟔ벺뗄쿺쫛췸싧ꎬ뮹뿉뺭펪뛠룶닺욷쿟틔듯떽컈뚨뺭펪ꆢ튵컱뮥늹뗄킧맻ꆣ쯹틔ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뛔쪳욷훆퓬웳튵뗄벨킧튲폐ퟅ뫜뛠뗄헽쿲펰쿬ퟷ폃ꆣ 쯹틔ꎬ컒쏇뗄쪵횤볬퇩뷡맻쿔쪾ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뛔쪳욷훆퓬탐튵뗄웳튵벨킧뻟폐헽쿲ퟷ폃쫇폐웤뫏샭탔뗄ꆣ 튽튩훆퓬튵 내헕횤볠믡뗄ꆶ짏쫐릫쮾탐튵럖샠횸틽ꆷꎬ튽튩훆퓬튵럖캪뮯톧튩욷풭튩훆퓬튵ꆢ뮯톧튩욷훆볁훆퓬튵ꆢ훐튩닄벰훐돉튩볓릤튵ꆢ뚯컯폃튩욷훆퓬튵4룶ퟓ탐튵ꆣ 컒맺튽튩탐튵뗄쳘뗣쫇ꎺ튽튩닺튵솴뗄짏폎훷튪쫇뒴탂뷗뛎ꎬ냼삨풭쪼탔뒴탂ꆢ맘볼벼쫵뒴탂뫍뾪랢탔뒴탂ꎻ훐폎뷗뛎훷튪짦벰ꆰ컯훊럖샫ꆱ뫍ꆰ닺욷볓릤ꆱ솽룶뷗뛎ꎻ쿂폎훷튪평펪쿺닟뮮ꆢ쟾뗀붨짨ꆢ붨솢탅쾢랴삡쾵춳뗈늿럖ퟩ돉ꆣ튽튩튵뻟폐탐튵뇚생룟ꆢ닺욷뾪랢훜웚뎤ꆢ룟럧쿕ꆢ룟쫕틦뗄쳘탔ꆣ 뷸죫뇚생룟쫗쿈뇭쿖퓚룟횪쪶닣듎죋닅뫍룟탂벼쫵랽쏦ꆣ튩컯뾪랢춨뎣헫뛔쒿잰컞램훎쇆뗄벲늡ꎬ믲쫇헫뛔쿖폐튩욷좱뗣뷸탐룄뷸ꎬ평믹뒡퇐뺿ꆢ튩컯랢쿖떽쇙뒲짏뗄펦폃ꎬ웤쯹짦벰횮톧뿆랶돫냼삨폐믺뮯톧ꆢ뮯릤ꆢ짺뮯ꆢ튩샭ꆢ짺샭ꆢ뚾샭ꆢ늡샭ꆢ쇙뒲뗈룷랽쏦뗄횪쪶ꎬ좱튻늻뿉ꆣ쇭췢ꎬ훆튩쫇튻룶춶죫쿠떱듳뗄닺튵ꎬ훷튪폃폚탂닺욷뗄퇐뺿뾪랢벰튽튩뎧랿뫍짨놸틇웷랽쏦ꆣ 튩욷듓뾪쪼퇐훆떽ퟮ훕뮯캪닺욷튪뺭맽뫜뛠뮷뷚ꎺ쫔퇩쫒퇐뺿뷗뛎ꆢ훐쫔짺닺뷗뛎ꆢ쇙뒲쫔퇩뷗뛎ꆢ맦쒣뮯짺닺뷗뛎ꆢ쫐뎡짌욷뮯뷗뛎틔벰볠뚽쎿룶뮷뷚뗄퇏룱뢴퓓뗄튩헾짳엺49
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 돌탲ꎬ뛸쟒닺욷엠퇸뫍쫐뎡엠퇸뷏쓑ꎬ쯹틔뾪랢튻훖탂튩훜웚뷏뎤ꎬ튻냣탨튪10쓪뗄ퟳ폒쪱볤ꆣ 춬쪱ꎬ튽튩닺욷뗄뾪랢퓐폽ퟅ뷏듳뗄늻좷뚨탔ꆣ쫗쿈ꎬ웳튵쏦쇙ퟅ닺욷뾪랢럧쿕ꎬ퇐훆뾪랢뗄죎뫎튻룶뮷뷚돶컊쳢뚼붫잰릦뺡웺ꎬ믲헟쒳킩튩컯뿉쓜믡퓚쪹폃맽돌훐돶쿖늻솼랴펦뛸탨튪훘탂움볛ꆣ튻냣살붲ꎬ튻룶짺컯릤돌튩욷뗄돉릦싊뷶폐5-10%ꆣ웤듎ꎬ웳튵쏦쇙ퟅ쫐뎡뺺헹럧쿕ꆣ쟀힢탂튩횤쫩ꆢ쟀햼쫐뎡햼폐싊쫇뾪랢벼쫵뮯캪닺욷쪱뗄맘볼ꎬ튲쫇늻춬뾪랢짌벤쇒뺺헹뗄쒿뇪ꎬ죴놻뇰죋폅쿈쓃떽튩횤믲쟀햼쫐뎡ꎬ퓲좫엌실뿕ꎬ폈웤쫇맺췢닺욷뗄돥믷퓚뎤웚살뾴퓚쯹쓑쏢ꆣ 평듋뿉볻ꎬ튽튩훆퓬튵뗄뿬쯙돉뎤탨튪벼쫵ꆢ뷰ꆢ죋닅ꆢ탅쾢뗈풴뗄룟킧쇷뚯뫍엤뫏쪹폃ꆣퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯퓚짏쿂폎웳튵릲춬럖떣퇐랢럑폃ꆢ럀횹훘뢴춶ꆢ쿻돽뫏춬붻틗듸살뗄뷏룟늻좷뚨탔뫍벼쫵틀삵떼훂뗄뷏룟붻틗럑폃뗈랽쏦쓜릻랢믓믽벫뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ붵뗍닺욷뾪랢쏦쇙뗄럧쿕ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ탂튩믱뗃뮼헟죏춬튲뮹탨튪뷏뎤쪱볤ꎬ쿺쫛쟾뗀늻풸틢쎰쿕췆돶탂튩ꎬ캪뺡뿬쫕믘잰웚춶ꎬ훆튩웳튵뿉붫튵컱퇓짬훁쿺쫛쟾뗀ꆣퟛ짏쯹쫶ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뛔튽튩훆퓬튵뗄웳튵쫇폐샻뗄톡퓱ꎬ쓜릻폐킧뗄쳡룟웳튵벨킧ꆣ맺췢튻킩돉쫬뗄듳탍훆튩릫쮾뚼춨맽ퟝ쿲늢릺살쳡룟웤뺺헹솦늢삩듳쫐뎡럝뛮ꆣ놾컄뛔컒맺짏쫐릫쮾뗄쪵횤퇐뺿뷡맻튲쿔쪾ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯폫웳튵벨킧돊쿖럇뎣쿔훸뗄헽쿲쿠맘뗄맘쾵ꎬ폫샭싛볙짨쿠럻ꆣ 틔짏뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯폫웳튵벨킧쿔훸헽쿠맘뗄6룶탐튵뷸탐쇋럖컶ꎬ쿂쏦붫뛔VAS폫ROA쿠맘탔볬퇩뷡맻캪쿔훸뢺쿠맘뗄붻춨퓋쫤짨놸훆퓬튵뷸탐럖컶ꆣ 붻춨퓋쫤짨놸훆퓬튵 내헕횤볠믡뗄ꆶ짏쫐릫쮾탐튵럖샠횸틽ꆷꎬ붻춨퓋쫤짨놸훆퓬튵럖캪쳺슷퓋쫤짨놸훆퓬튵ꆢ웻뎵훆퓬튵ꆢ쒦췐뎵훆퓬튵ꆢퟔ탐뎵훆퓬튵ꆢ뗧뎵훆퓬튵ꆢ뒬늰훆퓬튵ꆢ몽뿕몽쳬웷훆퓬튵ꆢ웤쯻붻춨퓋쫤짨놸훆퓬튵ꆢ붻춨퓋쫤짨놸탞샭튵벸룶ퟓ탐튵ꆣ놾컄톡좡뗄ꎬ붻춨퓋쫤짨놸훆퓬튵짏쫐릫쮾뛠캪웻뎵훆퓬웳튵ꎬ쯹틔헢샯컒쏇훷튪럖컶웻뎵훆퓬닺튵뗄튻킩쳘탔ꆣ 듓쫐뎡맦쒣뫍퓶뎤쯙뛈뾴ꎬ컒맺웻뎵튵쒿잰뗄닺튵랢햹짐늻돉쫬ꆣ컒맺헻뎵튵욽뻹ퟔ훆싊듯떽50ꎥ-60ꎥꎬ뛸맺췢웻뎵헻뎵뎧뗄ퟔ훆싊튻냣퓚30ꎥퟳ폒ꎬ퓚웻뎵훆퓬튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈뷏룟뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ룷뷗뛎짺닺쓜솦놾틑뫜쓑욥엤ꎬ볓짏쫐뎡맦쒣늻ퟣꎬ맦쒣킧틦컞듓랢믓ꎬ떼훂펯샻쓜솦뷏닮ꆣ웻뎵릤튵쫇뗤탍뗄짧믡뮯듳짺닺닺튵ꎬ평폚웤퓚짺닺짨놸뫍벼쫵뾪랢짏뗄뻞뛮놾춶죫ꎬ뇘좻튪쟳훆퓬웳튵폐ퟣ릻뗄맦쒣닅쓜쪵쿖짺닺뗄킧틦ꎬ맦쒣킧틦뗄쳘뗣쪮럖춻돶ꎬ쯼뻶뚨쇋웳튵뗄펯샻쓜솦ꆣ 틔짏뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯폫웳튵벨킧뗄쿠맘탔볬퇩뷡맻뷸탐쇋튻킩럖컶ꎬ뷓쿂살붫룹뻝뗚튻늽50
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 볬퇩뗄뷡맻ꎬ볓죫탂뗄뇤솿횵ꎬ뛔놾컄뗚죽헂쳡돶뗄쯄룶볙짨뷸탐볬퇩ꆣ 햽싔웚좨뗄볛횵뛔웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄펰쿬볬퇩 퓚뗚뛾늽볬퇩훐ꎬ쫗쿈튪룹뻝뇭4-6뗃떽뗄쿠맘탔뷡맻ꎬ뛔탂뗄뇤솿ꆰVI횵ꆱ뷸탐뢳횵ꆣꆰVI횵ꆱ뇭쪾뗄쫇웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧쟩뿶ꆣ 죴닺튵쓚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯폫벨킧헽쿠맘ꎬ뢳횵1ꎻ 죴닺튵쓚믘맩뷡맻춨맽볬퇩쟒뢺쿠맘ꎬ뢳횵 -1ꎻ 죴닺튵쓚믘맩뷡맻캴춨맽볬퇩ꎬ뢳횵0ꆣ 좻뫳ꎬ뛔볒움럖뗄뷡맻뷸탐춳볆ꎨ쿪볻뢽슼3ꎩꎬ볆쯣룷닺튵쎿튻횸뇪뗄욽뻹횵ꎬퟷ캪쿠맘탔볬퇩뗄쫤죫쫽뻝ꆣ웤훐닺튵폃탔뫍닺튵뮷뺳늻좷뚨탔솽룶횸뇪뮹럖뇰탨튪뛔뻟쳥뗄ퟓ횸뇪좡욽뻹횵ꎬ틔믱뗃뛔닺튵쳘탔뗄ퟛ뫏움볛ꎬ벴ꎺ 닺튵폃탔=ꎨ닺폃탔+벼쫵폃탔+쿺쫛쟾뗀폃탔ꎩ/ 3 닺튵뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔=ꎨ헾닟뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔+뺺헹뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔+닺튵벼쫵뗄늻좷뚨탔ꎩ/ 3 뺭맽헻샭ꎬퟮ훕뗃떽뇭4-7쇐돶뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯횵폫닺튵쳘탔움볛뷡맻ꆣ 뇭4-7 ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯횵폫닺튵쳘탔움볛뷡맻 Table 4-7 Result of VI Value and Industry Characteristics Assessment Value 닺튵뗄 닺튵솴뗄벼닺튵 햽싔뮷뺳뗄폃탔 쫵틀듦뛈 짺쏼훜웚 늻좷뚨탔 퇹놾닺튵 VI횵ꎨ뮻웚좨ꎩꎨ췋돶웚좨ꎩꎨ퓶뎤웚좨ꎩ ꎨ퇓동웚좨ꎩ뗧솦ꆢ헴웻ꆢ죈쮮뗄짺닺뫍릩펦튵 0 뗧웷믺킵벰웷닄훆퓬튵 1 럄횯튵 0 럾ힰ벰웤쯻쿋캬훆욷훆퓬튵 0 뫚즫뷰쫴튱솶벰톹퇓볓릤튵 1 뮯톧풭쇏벰뮯톧훆욷훆퓬튵 0 붻춨퓋쫤짨놸훆퓬튵 -1 쎺첿닉톡튵 1 웕춨믺킵훆퓬튵 0 쪳욷볓릤튵 -1 퓬횽벰횽훆욷튵 1 51
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 춨탅벰쿠맘짨놸훆퓬튵 0 췁쒾릤돌붨훾튵 0 튽튩훆퓬튵 1 틻쇏훆퓬튵 0 틇웷틇뇭벰컄뮯ꆢ냬릫폃믺킵훆퓬튵 0 폐즫뷰쫴튱솶벰톹퇓볓릤튵 0 쪳욷훆퓬튵 1 폃짨놸훆퓬튵 0 ퟔ살쮮뗄짺닺뫍릩펦튵 0 룹뻝틔짏쫽뻝ꎬ럖뇰뛔쯄룶닺튵쳘탔폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯횵뷸탐pearson쿠맘탔럖컶ꎬ뛔뗚죽헂쯹쳡돶뗄쯄룶볙짨럖뇰뷸탐쪵횤볬퇩ꆣ쿂쏦놾컄붫뛔볬퇩뷡맻훰룶뷸탐럖컶ꆣ ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯횵폫닺튵뗄폃탔쿠맘탔럖컶 뇭4-8 ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯횵폫닺튵뗄폃탔쿠맘탔럖컶뷡맻 Table 4-8 Analysis result of correlation between VI Value and Industry Specificity 닺튵뗄 VI횵 폃탔 VI횵 Pearson Correlation (*) Sig. (2-tailed) .021 N 2020 닺튵뗄폃탔 Pearson Correlation .513(*)1 Sig. (2-tailed) .021 N 2020 * Correlation is significant at the level (2-tailed). 짏뇭쫇뛔20룶퇹놾닺튵뗄VI횵뫍닺튵폃쳘탔움럖뷡맻뗄Pearson쿠맘탔럖컶뗄뷡맻ꎬ뿉틔뾴떽ꎬVI횵뫍닺튵폃탔뗄쿠맘쾵쫽캪ꎬ쿔훸탔쮮욽캪ꆣ헢뇭쏷닺튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈폫닺튵뗄폃탔퓚뗄쮮욽짏쿔훸헽쿠맘ꎺ닺튵뗄폃탔풽룟ꎬ닺튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯듸살뗄벨킧풽룟ꎻ뛸닺튵뗄폃탔풽룟ꎬ뮻웚좨뗄볛횵뻍풽듳ꆣ헢뇭쏷뮻웚좨뗄볛횵폫닺튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧쫇헽쿲쿠맘뗄ꆣ듋뷡싛퇩횤쇋놾컄뗄볙짨H01ꎺ웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐뮻웚좨뗄볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧폐헽쿲펰쿬ꆣ뮻웚좨뗄볛횵풽듳ꎬ벴닺튵뗄폃탔풽룟ꎬ웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧풽룟ꆣ뮻웚좨뗄볛횵퓚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔뗄벨킧훐뗃떽쇋쳥쿖ꆣ ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯횵폫닺튵솴뗄벼쫵틀듦뛈쿠맘탔럖컶 52
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 뇭4-9 ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯횵폫닺튵솴뗄벼쫵틀듦뛈쿠맘탔럖컶뷡맻 Table 4-9 Analysis result of correlation between VI Value and Technology Dependence on Industry Chain 닺튵솴뗄 VI횵 벼쫵틀듦뛈 VI횵 Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) .773 N 2020 닺튵솴뗄벼쫵틀듦뛈 Pearson Correlation .0691 Sig. (2-tailed) .773 N 2020 짏뇭쫇뛔20룶퇹놾닺튵뗄VI횵뫍닺튵솴뗄벼쫵틀듦뛈쳘탔움럖뷡맻뗄Pearson쿠맘탔럖컶뗄뷡맻ꎬ뿉틔뾴떽ꎬVI횵뫍닺튵솴뗄벼쫵틀듦뛈뗄쿠맘탔볬퇩뗄쿔훸탔쮮욽캪ꎬ풶듳폚뿉틔뷓쫜뗄쿔훸탔쮮욽ꆣ헢뇭쏷닺튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈폫닺튵솴뗄벼쫵틀듦뛈늻듦퓚쿔훸뗄쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ틲듋ꎬ놾컄뗄뗚뛾룶볙짨Hꎺ웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐췋돶웚좨뗄볛02횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧폐헽쿲펰쿬늻돉솢ꆣ컒쏇컞램횤쏷췋돶웚좨뗄볛횵풽듳ꎬ벴닺튵솴뗄벼쫵틀듦뛈풽룟ꎬ웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧풽룟ꆣ췋돶웚좨볛횵폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧횮볤늻듦퓚쿔훸뗄쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯횵폫닺튵뗄짺쏼훜웚쿠맘탔럖컶 뇭4-10 ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯횵폫닺튵뗄짺쏼훜웚쿠맘탔럖컶뷡맻 Table 4-10 Analysis result of correlation between VI Value and Industry Life Cycle 닺튵뗄 VI횵 짺쏼훜웚 VI횵 Pearson Correlation (*) Sig. (2-tailed) .041 N 2020 닺튵뗄짺쏼훜웚 Pearson Correlation (*)1 Sig. (2-tailed) .041 N 2020 * Correlation is significant at the level (2-tailed). 짏뇭쫇뛔20룶퇹놾닺튵뗄VI횵뫍닺튵뗄짺쏼훜웚움럖뷡맻뗄Pearson쿠맘탔럖컶뗄뷡맻ꎬ뿉틔뾴떽ꎬVI횵뫍닺튵뗄짺쏼훜웚뗄쿠맘쾵쫽캪ꎬ쿔훸탔쮮욽캪ꆣ헢뇭쏷닺튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈폫닺튵뗄폃탔퓚뗄쮮욽짏쿔훸뢺쿠맘ꎺ닺튵뒦폚짺쏼훜웚뗄풽퓧웚ꎬ웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧풽룟ꎻ뛸뒦폚짺쏼훜웚뗄풽퓧웚ꎬ퓶뎤웚좨뗄볛횵뻍풽53
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 듳ꆣ헢뇭쏷퓶뎤웚좨뗄볛횵폫닺튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧쫇헽쿲쿠맘뗄ꆣ듋뷡싛퇩횤쇋놾컄뗄볙짨Hꎺ웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐퓶뎤웚좨뗄볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧폐헽쿲펰쿬ꆣ퓶뎤웚좨뗄03볛횵풽듳ꎬ벴닺튵뒦폚짺쏼훜웚뗄풽퓧웚ꎬ웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧풽룟ꆣ퓶뎤웚좨뗄볛횵퓚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔뗄벨킧훐뗃떽쇋쳥쿖ꆣ ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯횵폫닺튵햽싔뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔쿠맘탔럖컶 뇭4-11 ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯횵폫닺튵햽싔뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔쿠맘탔럖컶뷡맻 Table 4-11 Analysis result of correlation between VI Value and the Uncertainty of Strategic Environment 햽싔뮷뺳뗄 VI횵 늻좷뚨탔 VI횵 Pearson Correlation Sig. (2-tailed) .539 N 2020 햽싔뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔 Pearson Correlation .1461 Sig. (2-tailed) .539 N 2020 짏뇭쫇뛔20룶퇹놾닺튵뗄VI횵뫍햽싔뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔움럖뷡맻뗄Pearson쿠맘탔럖컶뗄뷡맻ꎬ뿉틔뾴떽ꎬVI횵뫍닺튵솴뗄햽싔뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔쿠맘탔볬퇩뗄쿔훸탔쮮욽캪ꎬ풶듳폚뿉틔뷓쫜뗄쿔훸탔쮮욽ꆣ헢뇭쏷닺튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈폫햽싔뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔늻듦퓚쿔훸뗄쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ틲듋ꎬ놾컄뗄뗚뛾룶볙짨Hꎺ웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐퇓동웚좨뗄볛04횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧폐헽쿲펰쿬늻돉솢ꆣ컒쏇컞램횤쏷퇓동웚좨뗄볛횵풽듳ꎬ벴햽싔뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔풽룟ꎬ웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧풽룟ꆣ퇓동웚좨볛횵폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧횮볤늻듦퓚쿔훸뗄쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ 54
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 뗚컥헂 쪵횤볬퇩뷡맻럖컶폫ퟜ뷡 춨맽뗚쯄헂뛔20룶닺튵쯹뷸탐뗄쪵횤볬퇩ꎬ뛔폚뗚죽헂쳡돶뗄쯄룶볙짨ꎬ컒쏇뗃떽쇋틔쿂뗄볬퇩뷡맻ꎺ ¾ Hꎺ웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐뮻웚좨뗄볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧폐헽쿲펰쿬ꆣ 01듋볙짨돉솢ꎬ뮻웚좨뗄볛횵폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔뗄벨킧헽쿠맘ꆣ ¾ Hꎺ웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐췋돶웚좨뗄볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧폐헽쿲펰쿬ꆣ 02듋볙짨늻돉솢ꎬ췋돶동웚좨볛횵폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧횮볤늻듦퓚쿔훸뗄쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ ¾ Hꎺ웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐퓶뎤웚좨뗄볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧폐헽쿲펰쿬ꆣ 03듋볙짨돉솢ꎬ퓶뎤웚좨뗄볛횵폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔뗄벨킧헽쿠맘ꆣ ¾ Hꎺ웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐퇓동웚좨뗄볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧폐헽쿲펰쿬ꆣ 04듋볙짨늻돉솢ꎬ퇓동웚좨볛횵폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧횮볤늻듦퓚쿔훸뗄쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ 틔쿂럖뇰뛔쎿룶볙짨뗄볬퇩뷡맻뷸탐럖컶ꆣ 뮻웚좨볛횵폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄맘쾵 춨맽뛔컒맺20룶닺튵뗄짏쫐릫쮾뗄쪵횤볬퇩ꎬ벴웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐뮻웚좨뗄볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧폐헽쿲펰쿬ꆣ쯦ퟅ닺튵뗄폃탔뗄쳡룟ꎬ뮻웚좨뗄볛횵풽듳ꎬ웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧풽룟ꆣ헢폫컒쏇춨맽샭싛럖컶뛸쳡돶뗄볙짨췪좫럻뫏ꆣ 틲듋ꎬ떱웳튵퓚뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔쪱ꎬ죴듦퓚짨솢뮻웚좨뗄믺믡ꎬ웳튵펦떱냑컕쪱믺ꎬ붨솢헢퇹뗄웚좨ꎬ퓶볓웳튵햽싔뗄쇩믮탔ꆣ튻떩퓚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯쪵쪩맽돌훐폶떽틢췢뗄춻랢쫂볾ꎬ웳튵폐룼뛠뗷헻햽싔뗄폠뗘ꎬ듓뛸뿘훆뿉쓜뗄쯰쪧ꆣ폈웤쫇뛔폚닺뗄폃탔ꆢ벼쫵뗄폃탔믲헟쿺쫛쟾뗀뗄폃탔뇈뷏잿뗄닺튵ꎬ붨솢뮻웚좨뗄볛횵룼듳ꆣ닺튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧폫쯦닺튵닺ꆢ벼쫵ꆢ쿺쫛쟾뗀뗄폃탔퓶볓뛸훰붥퓶볓뗄뮻웚좨볛횵헽쿲쿠맘ꆣ 훆튩탐튵쫇쮵쏷탐튵뗄폃쳘탔뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧펰쿬뗄튻룶뫜뫃뗄샽횤ꆣ쳆횾뻼ꎨ2005ꎩ퓚뛔훆튩탐튵뗄퇐뺿훐랢쿖ꎺ뒫춳훆튩탐튵벼쫵뫍붻틗랽쪽뗄쳘뗣뻶뚨쇋웤닺춶죫뗄폃탔뷏룟ꎬ퓚헢퇹뗄놳뺰쿂ꎬ뒫춳훆튩뎧짌뗄ퟮ폅닟싔쫇쪵쪩ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯ꎬ틔놣횤튩욷뗄퇐랢ꆢ짺닺ꆢ쿺쫛쓜듯떽ퟮ룟킧싊믱뗃ퟮ듳볛횵ꆣ떫뷼쓪살ꎬ쯦ퟅ짺컯훆튩벼쫵ꆢ볆쯣믺뢨훺벼쫵ꆢ믺웷룐펦벼쫵뗈벼쫵뗄뿬쯙랢햹ꎬ훆튩웳튵뗄볛횵솴랢짺쇋훊뗄뇤뮯ꎬ웤닺55
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 폃탔뗄돌뛈튲뒦폚늻뛏뇤뮯훐ꎬ폫듋쿠쫊펦ꎬ훆튩웳튵뗄뺭펪햽싔튲듓뒫춳뗄힢훘ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯쿲힢훘춻돶뫋탄뺺헹솦ꆢ췢냼뫍햽싔솪쏋뗄ퟛ뫏뾼싇ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵탐튵폃쳘탔뗄뇤뮯룄뇤쇋웳튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뻶닟ꆣ 쫂쪵짏ꎬ듓럧쿕뗄뷇뛈살뾼싇ꎬ떱탐튵뗄닺폃탔뷏룟쪱ꎬ웳튵쪵쪩ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯펦떱붨솢뮻웚좨ꆣ닺뗄폃탔풽룟ꎬ뮻웚좨뗄볛횵풽듳ꆣ쯦ퟅ뮷뺳뗄늻뛏뇤뮯ꎬ늻좷뚨탔붫쪹뮻웚좨뗄볛횵뗃틔쳥쿖ꆣ웳튵붨솢뮻웚좨붫냯훺웳튵믱뗃룼룟뗄벨킧ꆣ 쯹틔ꎬ놾컄붨틩웳튵퓚쪵쪩ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔쪱ꎬ펦짮죫럖컶쯹퓚탐튵뗄폃쳘탔ꎬ냼삨닺뗄폃탔ꆢ벼쫵뗄폃탔뫍쿺쫛쟾뗀뗄폃탔ꎬ뾼싇쫇럱펦붨솢뮻웚좨살맦뇜늻뇘튪뗄럧쿕ꎬ춬쪱캪웳튵듸살룼룟뗄쫕틦ꆣ뮻웚좨뗄볛횵풽듳ꎬ웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧풽룟ꆣ 췋돶웚좨볛횵폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄맘쾵 뛔폚뗚뛾룶볙짨ꎬ놾컄뗄쪵횤럖컶뷡맻쿔쪾췋돶웚좨뗄볛횵폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔뗄벨킧횮볤늻듦퓚쿔훸뗄쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐췋돶웚좨뗄볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄펰쿬쫇늻좷뚨뗄ꎬ뛾헟뿉쓜늢쎻폐뇘좻솪쾵ꆣ 헢퇹뗄볬퇩뷡맻쮵쏷뛔폚놾컄쯹톡좡뗄퇹놾닺튵살쮵ꎬ췋돶웚좨뗄볛횵퓚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧훐늢쎻폐웰떽ퟷ폃ꆣ믲헟쮵ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔벨킧뗄늻춬늢늻쓜폃닺튵솴뗄벼쫵틀듦뛈뗄늻춬살뷢쫍ꆣ틲듋ꎬ놾컄뗄볬퇩컞램좷뚨췋돶웚좨뗄볛횵ꎬ벴닺튵솴뗄벼쫵틀듦뛈폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔벨킧횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ 쇭췢ꎬ놾컄쯹닉폃뗄닺튵솴뗄벼쫵틀듦뛈헢튻닺튵쳘탔살뫢솿ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯훐뗄췋돶웚좨쫇럱좫쏦ꎬ쫇횵뗃훘탂짳쫓뗄컊쳢ꆣ쫂쪵짏ꎬ췋돶웚좨뗄볛횵폐뫜뛠훖뫢솿뗄랽쪽ꎬ컒쏇헢샯톡좡쇋폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뚯믺뫍벨킧맘솪뛈ퟮ듳뗄튻룶횸뇪살뫢솿췋돶웚좨뗄볛횵ꎬ쯹뗃돶뗄뷡싛폐뿉쓜폫쪵볊쟩뿶닺짺욫닮ꆣ틲듋췋돶웚좨볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄펰쿬ꎬ퓚짐캴뗃떽룼볓ힼ좷뗄닢뛈뫍볬퇩횮잰ꎬ늻쓜좷뚨쯻쏇횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ 퓶뎤웚좨볛횵폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄맘쾵 컒쏇춨맽쪵횤볬퇩횤쏷쇋웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐퓶뎤웚좨뗄볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧폐헽쿲펰쿬ꆣ벴웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐퓶뎤웚좨뗄볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧폐헽쿲펰쿬ꆣ닺튵뒦폚짺쏼훜웚뗄풽퓧웚ꎬ뮻웚좨뗄볛횵풽듳ꎬ웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧풽룟ꆣ헢폫컒쏇춨56
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 맽샭싛럖컶뛸쳡돶뗄볙짨췪좫럻뫏ꆣ 룹뻝헢튻뷡싛ꎬ놾컄붨틩ꎬ떱웳튵퓚뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔쪱ꎬ죴듦퓚짨솢퓶뎤웚좨뗄믺믡ꎬ웳튵펦떱냑컕쪱믺ꎬ붨솢헢퇹뗄웚좨ꆣ폈웤쫇뛔폚뒦폚짺쏼훜웚퓧웚뗄닺튵살쮵ꎬ평폚닺튵뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔뿉쓜듸살럧쿕ꎬ횱뷓좫쏦춶폚닺튵솴뗄짏쿂폎뿉쓜믡떼훂웳튵돐떣늻뇘튪뗄럧쿕ꎬ뛸죧맻췪좫늻닉좡죎뫎탐뚯폖뿉쓜떼훂웳튵쪧좥쿈뚯폅쫆ꎬ쪧좥퓚캴살믱좡룼뛠샻죳뗄믺믡ꆣ뒦폚짺쏼훜웚퓧웚뗄닺튵붨솢퓶뎤웚좨뗄볛횵뇈뷏듳ꎬ튻랽쏦맦뇜닺튵뗄쿂탐럧쿕ꎬ붫뿉쓜쯰쪧뿘훆퓚튻뚨랶캧쓚ꎻ쇭튻랽쏦돤럖쿭쫜닺튵쿲짏뗄컞쿞랢햹뿕볤ꎬ퓚닺튵룟쯙랢햹뗄쪱뫲ꎬ샻폃쫂쿈붨솢뗄퓶뎤웚좨뇈웤쯻웤웳튵룼뿬뗄햼쇬쫐뎡ꆣ 뛔폚짐늻돉쫬뗄닺튵살쮵ꎬ뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯붫쳡룟웳튵킧싊ꎬ폐훺폚쳡룟웳튵벨킧ꎻ뛸뛔폚돉쫬닺튵훐뗄웳튵살쮵ꎬ듓쫂튵뮯뗄짺닺뛔웳튵룼폐샻ꎬ웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯랴뛸뿉쓜붵뗍웳튵벨킧ꆣ웳튵펦떱돤럖샻폃퓶뎤웚좨뿉쓜캪릫쮾듸살뗄샻틦ꎬ퓚햽싔쪵쪩횮돵폐틢쪶뗄붨솢퓶뎤웚좨ꎬ맦뇜췢늿뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔듸살뗄럧쿕ꎬ늢쿭쫜늻좷뚨탔듸살뗄쿲짏쳡짽뿕볤ꆣ 퇓동웚좨볛횵폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄맘쾵 놾컄뗄뗚쯄룶볙짨ꎬ웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐퇓동웚좨뗄볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧폐헽쿲펰쿬ꎬ쎻폐뗃떽쪵횤볬퇩뷡맻뗄횧돖ꆣ뷡맻쿔쪾퇓동웚좨볛횵폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧횮볤늻듦퓚쿔훸뗄쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐퇓동웚좨뗄볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄펰쿬쫇늻좷뚨뗄ꎬ뛾헟뿉쓜늢쎻폐뇘좻솪쾵ꆣ 듋뷡맻쮵쏷퓚놾컄쯹톡좡뗄퇹놾닺튵랶캧쓚ꎬ퇓동웚좨뗄볛횵퓚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧훐늢쎻폐웰떽ퟷ폃ꆣ믲헟쮵ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔벨킧뗄늻춬늢늻쓜폃닺튵햽싔뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔뗄늻춬살뷢쫍ꆣ뺡맜컒쏇ퟛ뫏뾼싇쇋죽룶랽쏦뗄늻좷뚨탔ꎬ냼삨헾닟뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔ꆢ뺺헹뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔뫍닺튵벼쫵뗄늻좷뚨탔ꎬ쪵볊퓋ퟷ훐릫쮾뗄쫽뻝늢늻쓜횧돖헢킩샭싛럖컶ꆣ틲듋ꎬ놾컄뗄볬퇩컞램좷뚨퇓동웚좨뗄볛횵ꎬ벴닺튵햽싔뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔벨킧횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ 쇭췢ꎬ놾컄쯹닉폃뗄닺튵햽싔뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔헢튻닺튵쳘탔살뫢솿ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯훐뗄퇓동웚좨쫇럱뫏샭ꎬ튲횵뗃훘탂뾼솿ꆣ쫂쪵짏ꎬ퇓동웚좨뗄볛횵폐뫜뛠훖뫢솿뗄랽쪽ꎬ컒쏇헢샯톡좡쇋폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뚯믺뫍벨킧맘솪뛈뇈뷏듳뗄튻룶횸뇪살뫢솿퇓동웚좨뗄볛횵ꎬ쯹뗃돶뗄뷡싛폐뿉쓜폫쪵볊쟩뿶닺짺욫닮ꆣ틲듋퇓동웚좨볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄펰쿬ꎬ퓚짐캴뗃떽룼볓ힼ좷뗄닢뛈뫍볬퇩횮잰ꎬ늻쓜좷뚨쯻쏇횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ 57
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 햽싔웚좨폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧쿠맘탔럖컶킡뷡 훁듋ꎬ놾컄춨맽뛔럖늼퓚20룶닺튵뗄653볒짏쫐릫쮾춳볆럖컶ꎬ췪돉쇋뛔쯄샠햽싔웚좨뗄볛횵폚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄펰쿬뗄쪵횤볬퇩벰뷡싛럖컶ꆣ춨맽샭싛럖컶놾컄쳡돶쇋쯄룶쿠맘뗄볙짨ꎬ웤훐폐솽룶뗃떽쇋쪵횤볬퇩뗄퇩횤ꎬ쇭췢뗄솽룶볙짨쎻폐뗃떽횧독ꆣ퓚뮻웚좨ꆢ췋돶웚좨ꆢ퓶뎤웚좨ꆢ뫍퇓동웚좨쯄샠햽싔웚좨훐ꎬ뮻웚좨뗄볛횵뫍퓶뎤웚좨뗄볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧쫇헽쿲쿠맘뗄ꎬ뛸췋돶웚좨뗄볛횵뫍퇓동웚좨뗄볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧쎻폐쿔훸뗄쿠맘맘쾵ꎬ퓚짐캴뗃떽룼볓ힼ좷뗄닢뛈뫍볬퇩횮잰ꎬ늻쓜좷뚨쯻쏇횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ 놾컄횤쏷쇋뮻웚좨뗄볛횵폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔뗄벨킧헽쿠맘ꆣ닺튵뗄폃탔풽룟ꎬ뮻웚좨뗄볛횵풽듳ꎬ웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧풽룟ꆣ뮻웚좨뢳폨쇋웳튵퓚뮷뺳춻뇤쪱쇩믮뗷헻햽싔뗄좨샻ꎬ쪹웳튵쓜ퟔ죧뗘펦뛔햽싔쪵쪩훐폶떽뗄룷훖춻랢쟩뿶ꎬ복킡웳튵뛔햽싔쪵쪩뿉쓜듸살뗄럧쿕뗄떣폇ꆣ틲듋놾컄붨틩뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔뗄웳튵ꎬ펦힡짨솢뮻웚좨뗄믺믡ꎬ붨솢헢퇹뗄웚좨ꎬ퓶볓웳튵햽싔뗄쇩믮탔ꆣ폈웤쫇뛔폚닺뗄폃탔ꆢ벼쫵뗄폃탔믲헟쿺쫛쟾뗀뗄폃탔뇈뷏잿뗄닺튵ꎬ붨솢뮻웚좨뗄볛횵룼듳ꆣ웳튵펦짮죫럖컶쯹퓚탐튵뗄폃쳘탔ꎬ냼삨닺뗄폃탔ꆢ벼쫵뗄폃탔뫍쿺쫛쟾뗀뗄폃탔ꎬ뾼싇쫇럱펦붨솢뮻웚좨살맦뇜늻뇘튪뗄럧쿕ꎬ춬쪱캪웳튵듸살룼룟뗄쫕틦ꆣ 놾컄튲횤쏷쇋퓶뎤웚좨뗄볛횵폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔뗄벨킧쫇헽쿲쿠맘뗄ꆣ퓶뎤웚좨쫇쒿잰톧뷧퇐뺿ퟮ뛠뗄햽싔웚좨ꎬ웤펦폃볛횵훷튪쳥쿖퓚춨맽욽첨춶ꎬ샻폃늻좷뚨탔ꎬ퓚쯸뚨웳튵쿂뷧럧쿕뗄잰쳡쿂캪웳튵뒴퓬뻞듳뗄잱퓚쫕틦ꆣ쯼쫓늻좷뚨탔캪볛횵살풴ꎬ폫뒫춳햽싔뫢솿릤뻟쫓늻좷뚨탔캪뢺쏦틲쯘잡잡쿠랴ꆣ폈웤쫇뛔폚뒦폚짺쏼훜웚퓧웚뗄닺튵살쮵ꎬ뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯붫쳡룟웳튵킧싊ꎬ폐훺폚쳡룟웳튵벨킧ꆣ떫평폚닺튵뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔뿉쓜듸살럧쿕ꎬ횱뷓좫쏦춶폚닺튵솴뗄짏쿂폎뿉쓜믡떼훂웳튵돐떣늻뇘튪뗄럧쿕ꎬ뛸죧맻췪좫늻닉좡죎뫎탐뚯폖뿉쓜떼훂웳튵쪧좥쿈뚯폅쫆ꎬ쪧좥퓚캴살믱좡룼뛠샻죳뗄믺믡ꆣ헢퇹뗄웳튵퓚뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔쪱ꎬ웳튵펦떱냑컕쪱믺붨솢퓶뎤웚좨ꎬ튻랽쏦맦뇜닺튵뗄쿂탐럧쿕ꎬ붫뿉쓜쯰쪧뿘훆퓚튻뚨랶캧쓚ꎻ쇭튻랽쏦돤럖쿭쫜닺튵쿲짏뗄컞쿞랢햹뿕볤ꎬ룼뿬뗄햼쇬쫐뎡ꆣ 58
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 뗚쇹헂 ퟜ뷡폫햹췻 좫컄ퟜ뷡 놾컄뗄훷튪쒿뗄쫇뛔펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵뷸탐쪵횤퇐뺿ꎬ좷뚨쯄훖늻춬샠탍뗄햽싔웚좨뗄볛횵폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ 쫗쿈ꎬ놾컄퓚ퟜ뷡뫍맩쓉맺쓚췢폐맘햽싔웚좨뫍ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄쿠맘컄쿗뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ듓샭싛짏쳡돶쇋퓚펰쿬ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄튻킩닺튵쳘탔떱훐ꎬ냼몬ퟅ뫜뛠쓜캪햽싔웚좨듸살볛횵뗄틲쯘ꆣ 뷓ퟅꎬ놾컄춨맽샭싛닻쫶ꎬ뛔쯄훖햽싔웚좨듦퓚폚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔훐뗄뻟쳥탎쪽ퟶ쇋쏨쫶ꎬ늢싛횤쇋쯄샠햽싔웚좨뗄볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄펰쿬ꎬ쳡돶쇋쯄룶샭싛볙짨ꆣ 좻뫳ꎬ놾컄춨맽붨솢퇏뷷뫏샭뗄쒣탍ꎬ짨볆쾵춳뗄쪵횤볬퇩횸뇪쳥쾵ꎬ맦랶뗘쫕벯퇹놾쫽뻝뗄ꎬ춨맽솽늽볙짨볬퇩뛔쯄샠햽싔웚좨뗄볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄펰쿬뷸탐볬퇩ꆣ뗚튻늽쫇톡좡쇋럖늼폚20룶닺튵떱훐뗄653볒짏쫐릫쮾ퟷ캪퇐뺿뛔쿳ꎬ춨맽볬퇩뢽볓횵싊ꎨVASꎩ폫ퟜ닺쫕틦싊ꎨROAꎩ횮볤뗄쿠맘탔ꎬ뗃돶돵늽뷡싛ꎺퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뛔웳튵벨킧뗄펰쿬퓚늻춬뗄닺튵훐쫇늻춬뗄ꎬ뿉쓜쫇평폚늻춬뗄닺튵쳘탔퓬돉뗄ꆣ뗚뛾늽뗄볙짨볬퇩쫇춨맽볒뛔쯄샠햽싔웚좨볛횵뗄펰쿬틲쯘뗄듲럖폫뗚튻늽볬퇩뗃떽뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뷸탐쇋쿠맘탔볬퇩ꎬ살퇩횤횮잰뗄쯄룶샭싛볙짨ꆣ춨맽헢킩퇐뺿럖컶ꎬ놾컄뗃떽뗄뷡싛죧쿂ꎺ 1. 웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐뮻웚좨뗄볛횵폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔뗄벨킧헽쿠맘ꆣ쯦ퟅ닺튵뗄폃탔뗄쳡룟ꎬ뮻웚좨뗄볛횵풽듳ꎬ웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧풽룟ꆣ헢폫컒쏇춨맽샭싛럖컶뛸쳡돶뗄볙짨췪좫럻뫏ꆣ뮻웚좨뗄볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧폐헽쿲펰쿬ꆣ뮻웚좨뗄볛횵풽듳ꎬ벴닺튵뗄폃탔풽룟ꎬ웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧풽룟ꆣ 2. 웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐췋돶웚좨볛횵폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧횮볤늻듦퓚쿔훸뗄쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐췋돶웚좨뗄볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄펰쿬쫇늻좷뚨뗄ꎬ뛾헟뿉쓜늢쎻폐뇘좻솪쾵ꆣ놾컄뛔뫢솿췋돶웚좨뗄횸뇪톡좡뿉쓜늻릻뺫좷ꎬ틲듋ꎬ퓚짐캴뗃떽룼볓ힼ좷뗄닢뛈뫍볬퇩횮잰ꎬ늻쓜좷뚨쯻쏇횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ 3. 웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐퓶뎤웚좨뗄볛횵폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔뗄벨킧헽쿠맘ꆣ닺튵뒦폚짺쏼훜웚뗄풽퓧웚ꎬ뮻웚좨뗄볛횵풽듳ꎬ웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧풽룟ꆣ헢폫컒쏇춨맽샭싛럖컶뛸쳡돶뗄볙짨췪좫럻뫏ꆣ퓶뎤웚좨뗄볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧폐헽쿲펰쿬ꆣ퓶뎤웚좨59
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 뗄볛횵풽듳ꎬ벴닺튵뒦폚짺쏼훜웚뗄풽퓧웚ꎬ웳튵뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧풽룟ꆣ 4. 웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐퇓동웚좨볛횵폫ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧횮볤늻듦퓚쿔훸뗄쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐퇓동웚좨뗄볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄펰쿬쫇늻좷뚨뗄ꎬ뛾헟뿉쓜늢쎻폐뇘좻솪쾵ꆣ퓚짐캴뗃떽룼볓ힼ좷뗄닢뛈뫍볬퇩횮잰ꎬ늻쓜좷뚨쯻쏇횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ 퇐뺿뒴탂뗣 쫗쿈ꎬ놾컄붫햽싔웚좨뗄헢튻탂탋뿎쳢퓋폃떽쇋ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔뗄퇐뺿떱훐ꎬ캪ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯햽싔쳡릩쇋튻룶탂뗄쫓뷇ꆣ쏦뛔럗랱뢴퓓뗄쓚췢늿뮷뺳ꎬ웳튵퓚쪵쪩햽싔뗄맽돌훐춨뎣쏦쇙ퟅ뫜뛠뗄늻좷뚨탔ꆣퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯ퟷ캪웳튵뗄릫쮾닣햽싔ꎬ쫇뛔웳튵뻟폐훘듳펰쿬뗄탐뚯ꆣ헫뛔늻춬닺튵쯹뻟폐뗄닺튵쳘탔ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄벨킧튲폐쯹쟸뇰ꆣ웳튵퓚쪵쪩ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯쪱ꎬ펦떱춨맽붨솢햽싔웚좨살맦뇜럧쿕ꎬ붨솢햽싔죡탔ꆣ놾컄뗄퇐뺿돉맻캪햽싔웚좨쮼쿫퓚컒맺웳튵쪵볹훐뗄펦폃폐ퟅ튻뚨뗄뷨본틢틥ꆣ 웤듎ꎬ놾컄틔뚨솿뗄랽쪽뛔햽싔웚좨볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄펰쿬뷸탐쇋쪵횤퇐뺿ꆣ춨맽뇈뷏듳뗄퇹놾쫽솿ꎬ늢짨볆쇋튻룶솽늽뗄볙짨볬퇩맽돌ꎬ뗃떽쇋뇈뷏폐볛횵뗄뷡싛ꆣ헢킩믹폚뿍맛쫽뻝뗃떽뗄뷡싛ꎬ쿠뇈틔췹뗄듓뚨탔뷇뛈돶랢뗄퇐뺿돉맻룼뻟뿍맛탔뫍쪵횤탔ꎬ쓜릻헦쪵랴펳햽싔웚좨퓚쪵볊펦폃훐뗄쟩뿶ꆣ 뗚죽ꎬ놾컄쯹첽쳖뗄뷸탐ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯뗄웳튵쯹뻟폐뗄닺튵쳘탔ꎬ볈쫇펰쿬ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄틲쯘ꎬ폖쫇뻶뚨늻춬샠탍햽싔웚좨뗄볛횵뗄틲쯘ꎬ뇈뷏뫃뗄붫헢솽룶랽쏦뗄쓚죝솪쾵웰살ꎬ캪틔뫳뗄퇐뺿쳡릩쇋튻킩탂뗄쮼슷ꆣ 퇐뺿뗄뻖쿞탔 뺡맜놾컄뗃떽쇋뇈뷏샭쿫뗄볬퇩뷡맻ꎬ떫쫇뮹듦퓚ퟅ뫜뛠뗄컊쳢뫍뻖쿞탔ꎬ뿉쓜믡퓬돉뷡싛뗄늻ힼ좷ꆣ 쫗쿈ꎬ낭폚쫽뻝믱좡뗄뢴퓓탔ꎬ놾컄횻톡좡쇋20룶닺튵훐뗄653볒짏쫐릫쮾ퟷ캪퇐뺿뗄퇹놾ꎬ뺡맜쫽쒿틑뺭늻킡ꎬ떫죔뻟폐뻖쿞탔ꎬ폐뿉쓜늻쓜췪좫랴펳헻룶닺튵뗄쪵볊쟩뿶ꆣ죧맻쫽뻝뿉틔믱뗃ꎬ뿉틔뾼싇볓죫룼뛠뗄닺튵볓죫볬퇩쒣탍훐ꎬ뿉쓜믡뗃돶룼뻟듺뇭탔뗄뷡싛ꆣ 웤듎ꎬ놾컄뛔짏쫐릫쮾쫽뻝뗄쫕벯뿧풽쇋2003-2007컥쓪뗄쪱볤ꎬ쪱볤뿧뛈짏늻릻뎤ꆣ틲캪헢뛎쪱볤쫇뒦폚헻룶뫪맛뺭볃뗄짏짽훜웚떱훐ꎬ웳튵펯샻ힴ뿶늻쏢튪쫜떽헢랽쏦틲쯘뗄60
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 펰쿬ꆣ쯹틔ꎬ퇐뺿뗄뷡맻뿉쓜믡믡싔쇋뺭볃쿂탐훜웚훐웳튵뗄ힴ뿶ꎬ뷡싛뿉쓜쫜떽뫪맛뺭볃늨뚯뗄펰쿬ꆣ 뗚죽ꎬ평폚뛔뮻웚좨ꆢ췋돶웚좨ꆢ퓶뎤웚좨뫍퇓동웚좨뗄볛횵뷸탐솿뮯놾짭뻍쫇뇈뷏삧쓑뗄ꎬ놾컄뗄닢뛈쫇춨맽볒뛔쿠펦뗄닺튵쳘탔뷸탐움럖뗄랽쪽믱뗃쫽뻝ꎬ헢훖랽램뗄뻖쿞탔퓚폚뗃떽뗄쫽뻝훷맛탔뇈뷏듳ꎬ볒쫇룹뻝ퟔ벺뛔늻춬탐튵뗄훷맛죏쪶뫍에뛏살룸돶럖쫽뗄ꎬ뺡맜컊뻭뗄쫽솿뷏듳ꎬ떫죔뇜쏢늻쇋헢훖훷맛탔뗄펰쿬ꆣ 뗚쯄ꎬ놾컄쯹톡좡뗄룷뇤솿뗄닢뛈횸뇪뗄뫏샭탔뮹폐룄짆뗄뿕볤ꆣ뇈죧ꎬퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈컒쏇닉폃뗄쫇VAS살닢뛈ꎬ쫇럱뮹폐룼뫃뗄닢뛈횸뇪살볆쯣웳튵뗄ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯싊ꎬ횵뗃퇐뺿ꆣ뛔폚쯄샠햽싔웚좨뗄볛횵펰쿬틲쯘ꎬ놾컄횻쫇톡좡쇋웳튵퓚ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐ퟮ뻟듺뇭탔뗄닺튵쳘탔살뾼솿ꎬ뿉쓜늻릻좫쏦ꆣ 뫳탸퇐뺿햹췻 놾컄뛔펰쿬ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵뗄퇐뺿뮹뇈뷏돵늽ꎬ캴살퓚쳵볾퓊탭뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ뿉틔뷸탐룼볓좫쏦뗄짮죫퇐뺿ꆣ뷸튻늽뗄퇐뺿랽쿲폐ꎺ 뗚튻ꎬ볓듳퇹놾닺튵쫽솿ꎬ쪹퇐뺿뷡맻룼뻟웕뇩탔ꎻ춬쪱퓚쎿룶퇹놾닺튵쿂볓듳퇹놾웳튵쫽솿ꎬ늻뷶퇐뺿짏쫐웳튵ꎬ퓚쫽뻝뿉믱뗃뗄잰쳡쿂ꎬ튲럇짏쫐웳튵냼삨뷸살ꎬ뿉틔뗃떽룼볓좫쏦ힼ좷뗄뷡싛ꆣ 뗚뛾ꎬ퓶볓뛔퇹놾닺튵뫍웳튵뗄뾼달웚ꆣ퓚놾컄뗄쒣탍훐ꎬ컒쏇뛔퇹놾웳튵뗄뾼달웚캪2003쓪훁2007쓪릲컥쓪쪱웚ꎬ뷸튻늽뗄퇐뺿뿉틔닉폃룼뎤뗄뾼달웚ꎬퟛ뫏뾼싇뺭볃뗄헻룶훜웚ꆣ 뗚죽ꎬ뛔뮻웚좨ꆢ췋돶웚좨ꆢ퓶뎤웚좨뫍퇓동웚좨볛횵뗄닢뛈횸뇪뷸탐폅뮯ꎬ죧맻쓜헒떽룼볓뿍맛뗄닢뛈랽쪽ꎬ뗃돶룼볓뿍맛ힼ좷뗄쫽뻝ꎬ뗃떽뗄뷡싛붫룼뻟폐쮵럾솦ꆣ틔 뗚쯄ꎬ뿉틔뎢쫔뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯돌뛈뗄닢뛈횸뇪뫍펰쿬햽싔웚좨뗄틲쯘닉좡늻춬폚놾컄뗄뫢솿랽쪽ꎬ듓늻춬뗄뷇뛈뛔놾컄뗄볙짨뷸탐볬퇩ꎬ틔쟳뷡싛룼뺭뗃웰뾼퇩ꆣ 햹췻캴살ꎬ돽쇋퇐뺿햽싔웚좨뗄볛횵뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄펰쿬췢ꎬ뮹뿉뷸튻늽퇐뺿웳튵ퟔ짭쓜솦풴ꆢ웳튵쯹퓚닺튵뗄쫐뎡벯훐뛈틔벰닺튵뗄웤쯻쳘탔뗈뛔ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄펰쿬ꎬ틔붨솢웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧펰쿬틲쯘쾵춳움볛쳥쾵ꎬ냯훺웳튵퓚늻뛏뇤뮯뗄쓚췢늿뮷뺳훐쓜ퟶ돶헽좷뗄뻶닟ꎬ뒴퓬늢놣돖뺺헹폅쫆ꎬ쳡짽웳튵펯샻쓜솦ꆣ 61
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짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 뢽 슼 뢽슼1 20룶퇹놾닺튵쇐뇭틔벰닺튵훐냼삨뗄퇹놾웳튵쏻떥 1. 뗧솦ꆢ헴웻ꆢ죈쮮뗄짺닺뫍릩펦튵ꎨ47볒ꎩ 짮?쓜풴 슳쓜첩즽 짏몣뗧솦 짪쓜막럝 짮쓏뗧A 헄퓳뗧솦 뮪뗧맺볊 샖즽뗧솦 뢻쇺죈뗧 벪뗧막럝 맣훝뿘막 듳솬죈뗧 쯫뫣퓋A 룓쓜막럝 쏷탇뗧솦 뮪뗧쓜풴 솦뫏막럝 뾭뗏뗧솦 죽쾿쮮샻 뮪틸뗧솦 짇뗧솦A 뚫랽죈뗧 횣훝쎺뗧 쿩쇺뗧튵 퓁뗧솦A 뎤풴뗧솦 붭쮮뗧 춨놦쓜풴 췮쓜뗧솦 쏶뚫뗧솦 잮붭쮮샻 맺뗧뗧솦 붨춶쓜풴 풥쓜뿘막 뻅쇺뗧솦 쓚쏉뮪뗧 짘쓜막럝 잭풴뗧솦 맰뚫뗧솦 맾춶막럝 맣낲낮훚 컄즽뗧솦 뷰즽막럝 맺춶뗧솦 쓾늨죈뗧 듳쳆랢뗧 컷닽뗧솦 2. 뗧웷믺킵벰웷닄훆퓬튵ꎨ42볒ꎩ 뗂주뗧돘 죽병뿆벼 뗂뫀죳듯 춭럥뗧ퟓ 탭볌뗧웸 쳬췾놣뇤 쮼풴뗧웸 냄뿂싪 킡쳬뛬A 뺫듯막럝 뚫풴뗧웷 놦맢막럝 쏀쇢뗧웷 컔쇺뗧웸 죽뇤뿆벼 쮫솼막럝 쏀뗄뗧웷 첩뫀뿆벼 죙탅막럝 럧랫막럝 췲볒샖 몣솢막럝 맚돇듳춨 훃탅뗧웸 런즽헕쏷 쟠떺몣뛻 쳘뇤뗧릤 맣훝샤믺 뚫놱뗧웸 쓾늨뢻듯 뮪솢뿆벼 뚫랽뗧웸 룱솦뗧웷 뚫랽틸탇 뎤헷뗧웸 맾뿕뗷 뮪뚫뿆벼 짏몣믺뗧 짺틦뿆벼틸뫓뿆벼 컥훞쏷훩 뎤돇뗧릤 66
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 3. 럄횯튵ꎨ37볒ꎩ 뮪솪뿘막 뮪쎯막럝 탂튰럄횯 뢣붨쓏럄 짮럄횯A 뒺막럝 헣붭뢻죳 럯훱럄횯 뎣즽막럝 훐틸죞튵 캬뿆뺫뮪 췲뫃췲볒 뚫랽쫐뎡 쾼뿍뮷놣 뮪짽막럝 짪듯막럝 뷵쇺막럝 쏀타듯 붭쯕퇴맢 쇺춷막럝 슳첩A 틋뿆뿆벼 뷰펥막럝 몽쳬춨탅 뷰폮뎵돇 량퇇막럝 뮪랼럄횯 몽쏱막럝 훐믣튽튩 훚뫍막럝 죽랿쿯뮪죳뷵뮪 뗂쏞막럝 뾭억뿆벼 쳬즽럄횯 죕막럝 뮪럄막럝 4. 럾ힰ벰웤쯻쿋캬훆욷훆퓬튵ꎨ14볒ꎩ 훐맺럾ힰ 뾪뾪쪵튵 퇅룪뛻 뻅쇺즽 웟욥샇 뛵뛻뛠쮹 듳퇮뒴쫀 짏몣죽쎫 뚫랽뷰 뫬뚹막럝 쇉쓾쪱듺 즼즼막럝 쏀뛻퇅 뫚쒵떤 5. 뫚즫뷰쫴튱솶벰톹퇓볓릤튵ꎨ32볒ꎩ 뎤돇막럝 쫗룖막럝 몼룖막럝 십룖막럝 엊룖룖랰 듳솬뷰얣 쇨룖막럝 맣룖막럝 듳튱쳘룖 죽룖쏶맢 쓏룖막럝 쇸룖막럝 쳆룖막럝 몪떦룖쳺 뻆룖뫪탋 훘쟬룖쳺 짘룖쯉즽 커룖막럝 돐뗂랰 컷쓾쳘룖 놾룖냥닄 냼룖막럝 뢧쮳쳘룖 냋튻룖쳺 첫룖늻탢 놦룖막럝 낲퇴룖쳺 열늩쪿 낰룖막럝 볃쓏룖쳺 뮪쇢룖쳺 삳룖막럝 67
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 6. 뮯톧풭쇏벰뮯톧훆욷훆퓬튵ꎨ90볒ꎩ 쇉춨뮯릤 쇸뮯막럝 쏷쳬뿆벼 컷놱뮯릤 뒨뮯막럝 뮪슳뫣짽 퓆쳬뮯 퇎뫾볘럊 뫾놱틋뮯 쇹맺뮯릤 샖뾭붺욬 뷵뮯싈볮 뷰슷벯췅 퇯얩뮯릤 탋랢벯췅 즽뚫몣뮯 엊폥튵 훐뿆뫏뎼 뻞뮯막럝 뫏볓풴 맣훝샋웦 뮪퇴뿆벼 훐맺늣쿋 슳컷뮯릤 뫬첫퇴 탂낲막럝 짽뮪냝뿋 쳬뮯 즳슡듯A 태쎨퇌뮨 돠쳬뮯 붨럥뮯릤 폥죽쾿A 럡뮪막럝 닽뻅짺뮯 뫓돘뮯릤 삶탇쟥쾴 싈볮뮯릤 쟠떺볮튵 듳쟬뮪뿆 쟠몣쏷붺 냗쎨막럝 닗훝듳뮯 탂뫍돉 쳬쎯벯췅 죽낮뢻 틚샻쓜풴 뒫뮯막럝 펢솦쳘 퓆캬막럝 첫뮯막럝 뮪탇뮯릤 풶탋쓜풴 슳놱뮯릤 삶탇탂닄 뢻튩튵 뇵몣쓜풴 뫾쓏몣샻 쓏뮯막럝 뻃솪랢햹 짲퇴뮯릤 붭쯕쯷웕 퇌첨췲뮪 뗂쏀뮯릤 쮫뮷뿆벼 췾풶짺뮯 짏몣볒뮯 훐룖쳬풴 쯄뒨쏀럡 듳돉막럝 퇇탇뮯톧 붭즽뮯릤 쓏럧뮯릤 솦억첫퇴 삼첫쪵튵 뫚쎨막럝 즽컷죽캬 샗쏹뿆뮯 뫪듯막럝 훐첩뮯톧 쳬뿆막럝 쳬죳랢햹 헣붭쇺쪢 쓏쇫쏱놬 붭즽막럝 쿦첶뗧뮯 뫬탇랢햹 탋뮯막럝 죽폑뮯릤 돎탇막럝 68
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 7. 붻춨퓋쫤짨놸훆퓬튵ꎨ61볒ꎩ 캫닱뚯솦 맳몽막럝 뎤뒺튻뚫 쓏랽믣춨 붭쇥웻뎵 뗏십막럝 몽쳬믺뗧 튻웻쿄샻 췲쿲잮뎱 뷰놭웻뎵 뢣쳯웻뎵 훐맺훘웻 탂듳훞A 붻퓋막럝 뚫낲뚯솦 훐춨뿍뎵 뎤낲웻뎵 뷰즽뾪랢 퇇탇뿍뎵 ퟚ짪뚯솦 쿥퇴훡돐 맣뒬맺볊 쫯맢막럝 훐몽뺫믺 쒣쯜뿆벼 뷰쇺웻뎵 뫩뚼몽뿕 쓾늨뮪쿨 쳬탋틇뇭 튻웻뢻캬 탇십웻뎵 췲럡냂췾 늩펯춶 뚫낲뫚놪 돉랢뿆벼 뚫럧웻뎵 컷량맺볊 훐슷막럝 낲풴막럝 죽튻훘릤 튻웻뷎뎵 훐맺볎쇪 붭뮴웻뎵 맾량막럝 낲뾭뿍뎵 몽뿕뚯솦 럧짱막럝 폮춨뿍뎵 즽뚫뻞솦 뇵훝믮죻 뷺컷뎵훡 뚫럧뿆벼 죽뮷막럝 놱랽뒴튵 몽쳬뎿맢 쇖몣막럝 훐뚦막럝 뎤럡웻뎵 뎤솦막럝 짏몣웻뎵 잮붭쒦췐 8. 쎺첿닉톡튵ꎨ13볒ꎩ 뺸풶쎺뗧 뫣풴쎺뗧 맺퇴탂쓜 컷즽쎺뗧 짱믰막럝 뾪싐막럝 엌붭막럝 삼뮨뿆뒴 뷰얣쓜풴 욽쎺막럝 짏몣쓜풴 ?훝쎺튵 쎺웸뮯9. 웕춨믺킵훆퓬튵ꎨ33볒ꎩ 짲퇴믺뒲 냙샻뗧웸 죽뮨막럝 퇌첨뇹싖 틸뫓뚯솦 뫩돇막럝 맣뚫뫨춼 붭뮴뚯솦 듳샤막럝 쇺쾪막럝 뮪쿄붨춨 쟘뒨랢햹 뒴풪뿆벼 믣춨쓜풴 좫닱뚯솦 퓆쓚뚯솦 쯕뎣닱A 솦풴튺톹 쟠몣뮪뚦 쳬튻뿆벼 췾룟뿆 짏닱막럝 뚦쪢쳬릤 짏럧룟뿆 컷놱훡돐 쓏춨뿆벼 몽쳬뚯솦 뛜낲뮷뺳 쪯폍볃닱 뷺틚쪵튵 쿦뗧막럝 훡퇐뿆벼 훐뫋뿆벼69
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 10. 쪳욷볓릤튵ꎨ23볒ꎩ 맣뚫룊뮯 췲쿲뗂얩 뷰붡쏗튵 퓆쓏퇎뮯 헽뫧뿆벼 몣춨벯췅 뮪쪵튵 쳬뾵짺컯 맳쳇막럝 쒪룟막럝 훐쓁막럝 쳬냮막럝 탂쾣췻 맢쏷죩튵 몣쓏튬떺 욡뻆뮨 쮫믣랢햹 듳붭막럝 낲뷍쒸 맾룟뿆 쓏쓾쳇튵 훐솸췍뫓 죙뮪쪵튵 11. 춨탅벰쿠맘짨놸훆퓬튵ꎨ21볒ꎩ 짮즣듯A 량샖막럝 늨떼막럝 춬훞뗧ퟓ 훐탋춨톶 헗캬뿆벼 듳뫣뿆벼 탂몣틋 쏶뢣랢A 훐뗧맣춨 뫠춨맢뗧 죽캬춨탅 쇬쿈뿆벼 쓏뺩태쎨 럩믰춨탅 훐맺컀탇 쫀볍맢뮪 뚫랽춨탅 훐쳬뿆벼 뫪춼룟뿆 쫽풴뿆벼 12. 쪳욷훆퓬튵ꎨ10볒ꎩ 쏱짺춶 죽풪막럝 뫣쮳듗튵 짏몣쎷쇖 맅뺮릱뻆 틁샻막럝 춨웏막럝 솫뮨캶뺫 컥솸튺 럡풭짺뮯 13. 췁쒾릤돌붨훾튵ꎨ26볒ꎩ 짮쳬뗘A 뫬퇴쓜풴 쇺풪붨짨 뫪죳붨짨 놱랽맺볊 쯭뗀막럝 뺫릤룖릹 룰훞냓 짮쳬붡 쇺붨막럝 낲믕쮮샻 짏몣붨릤 믣춨벯췅 훐닄맺볊 쳚듯붨짨 슷쟅붨짨 훐즫막럝 뿆듯막럝 훐쳺뛾뻖 놱뺩돇붨 훐맺커틄 훐맺쳺붨 탂붮돇붨 몼쿴룖릹 퓁쮮뗧 70
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 14. 튽튩훆퓬튵ꎨ73볒ꎩ 튻훂튩튵 ST잱튩 쳬랽튩튵 뷰쇪튩튵 몣췵짺컯 뾵뛷놴 몣헽튩튵 맣볃튩튵 럡풭튩튵 틦냛훆튩 뫣죰튽튩 뮪뚫튽튩 뚫낢낢붺 짏쪵튽튩 쇧죱막럝 뻅횥쳃 샶훩벯췅 맾튩막럝 쏀싞튩튵 죽뻅튽튩 냗퓆즽A 컷쓏튩튵 맣훝튩튵 뮪냮훆튩 퓆쓏냗튩 쳬쒿튩튵 퇇놦튩튵 뺩탂튩튵 벪쇖훆튩 쓏뺩튽튩 붡뾵풪 몣쿨튩튵 몣쓏몣튩 붭훐튩튵 쿖듺훆튩 컖뮪튽튩 ퟏ맢맅몺 짏몣뢨죊 삥쏷훆튩 ퟏ튩튵 충뻽룳 슳뾹튽튩 욬ퟐ 쮫뫗튩튵 뚫놱훆튩 뮪놱훆튩 잧뷰튩튵 춬죊쳃 벪쇖낽뚫 훐컷튩튵 쳬튩막럝 첫벫벯췅 죊뫍튩튵 짏몣튽튩 솪뮷튩튵 뢴탇튽튩 웕싥막럝 춨뮯뚫놦 뾵쏀튩튵 뷰폮벯췅 탂뮪훆튩 죽웕튩튵 뮪몣튩튵 컷님튩튵 춨뮯뷰십 커몺붡쏱 쳬쪿솦 헣붭튽튩 컷쓏뫏돉 십펦쇺 뾵풵튩튵 첫쇺튩튵 뮪짱벯췅 15. 틇웷틇뇭벰컄뮯ꆢ냬릫폃믺킵훆퓬튵ꎨ12볒ꎩ 량퇇듯A 쓾늨퓏짽 뷰십막럝 쮼듯룟뿆 뮪솢튩튵 뚫퇴맢싁 췾뛻첩 틸탇쓜풴 쪱듺뿆벼 ퟔ틇막럝 럯믋맢톧 몽쳬뿆벼 16. 틻쇏훆퓬튵ꎨ23볒ꎩ 짮짮놦A 쟠떺욡뻆 뷰훖ퟓ뻆 믊첨뻆튵 훝샏뷑 없쟺뻆 캬캬막럝 맅풽쇺즽 퇠뺩욡뻆 탂뮪뷵 맳훝쎩첨 훘쟬욡뻆 컷님랢햹 쮮뺮랻 샏냗룉뻆 듳쇺뗘닺 뻆맭뻆 즽컷럚뻆 믝좪욡뻆 틁솦쳘 돐뗂슶슶 헅풣A 삼훝믆뫓 71
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 17. 폐즫뷰쫴튱솶벰톹퇓볓릤튵ꎨ23볒ꎩ 훐뷰쇫쓏 놦막럝 뚰솺탂닄 퓆쓏춭튵 붹ퟷ췲랽 맳퇐늬튵 싞욽킿뗧 컽튵막럝 춭쇪폐즫 풥맢뷰잦 냼룖쾡췁 뚫랽튵 킿튵막럝 쿃쏅컙튵 쓏즽싁튵 훐뿆죽뮷 퓆싁막럝 훐쪵튵 붭컷춭튵 훪튱벯췅 맘싁막럝 탂붮훚뫍 벪뛷쓸튵 18. 퓬횽벰횽훆욷튵ꎨ20볒ꎩ 뎿쏹횽튵 맚뫀룟탂 샋즯막럝 뾭뛷막럝 쯕쓾뮷쟲 즽펥횽튵 뢣붨쓏횽 뺰탋횽튵 쏀샻횽튵 놣쮰뿆벼 쏱럡쳘횽 첫퇴횽튵 뷰돇막럝 퓀퇴횽튵 뮪첩막럝 틸룫춶 듳퇇뿆벼 늩믣횽튵 뫣럡횽튵 쟠즽횽튵 19.폃짨놸훆퓬튵 ꎨ44볒ꎩ 훐솪훘뿆 뷰ퟔ쳬헽 훐뷝막럝 뮪틇뗧웸 뮪틢톹쯵 쳬뗘뿆벼 뻞싖막럝 뇪ힼ막럝 탬릤뿆벼 탂뮪튽쇆 쟠떺죭뿘 욽룟뗧웸 쇸릤 뎣쇖막럝 즽뫓훇쓜 헱뮪룛믺 뺭캳럄믺 낲믕뫏솦 췾몣맣첩 듳쿰쯜 즽췆막럝 삥쏷믺뒲 췲뚫튽쇆 맣뚫쏷훩 뺩즽쟡믺 쿃릤막럝 훐뒬막럝 쇺뺻뮷놣 붭ퟪ막럝 짏릤짪놴 훐맺뒬늰 훐뇸맢뗧 뫓놱탻릤 몽쳬뎤럥 첫풭훘릤 뮪맢막럝 뺫릤뿆벼 놱죋막럝 놱랽막럝 뿆듯믺뗧 쳬웦막럝 믰볽막럝 맺뗧쓏ퟔ 럆듯뮷놣 20.ퟔ살쮮뗄짺닺뫍릩펦튵ꎨ5볒ꎩ 커몺뿘막 짪춨뗘쳺 돇춶뿘막 뫩돇쮮튵 쓏몣랢햹 72
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 뢽슼2 닺튵쳘탔뗷닩컊뻭 닺튵쳘탔뗷닩컊뻭 ퟰ뺴뗄얮짺/쿈짺ꎺ 쓺뫃ꎡ 캪퇐뺿웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯맽돌훐듦퓚뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵ꎬ컒쏇쒿잰헽퓚뛔닺튵쳘탔뷸탐뗷닩럖컶ꆣퟷ캪뺭볃맜샭쇬폲뗄톧헟/춶틸탐튵짏쫐릫쮾퇐뺿뗄볒/톯탐튵뗄짮죋쪿ꎬ쓺뛔룷탐튵쳘탔뗄샭뷢뫍움볛뛔컒쏇뗄퇐뺿웰ퟅ럇뎣훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ룐킻쓺뗄놦맳쪱볤ꎬ냯컒쏇췪돉틔쿂컊뻭ꆣ 쿂튻튳뗄뇭룱쇐돶쇋컒쏇퇐뺿쯹짦벰뗄20룶닺튵ꎬ쟫럖뇰캪20룶닺튵쯹뻟폐뗄ꎨ1ꎩ닺폃탔ꎻꎨ2ꎩ벼쫵폃탔ꎻꎨ3ꎩ쿺쫛쟾뗀폃탔ꎻꎨ4ꎩ닺튵솴벼쫵틀듦뛈ꎻꎨ5ꎩ닺튵뗄짺쏼훜웚ꎻꎨ6ꎩ헾닟뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔ꎻꎨ7ꎩ뺺헹뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔ꎻꎨ8ꎩ닺튵벼쫵뗄늻좷뚨탔 뻅룶랽쏦뗄쳘탔룸폨움럖ꎬ움럖뇪ힼ죧쿂ꆣ 닺튵쳘탔 1럖 2럖 3럖 4럖 5럖 1 닺폃탔 럇뎣뗍 뇈뷏뗍 훐탔 뇈뷏룟 럇뎣룟 2 벼쫵폃탔 럇뎣뗍 뇈뷏뗍 훐탔 뇈뷏룟 럇뎣룟 3 쿺쫛쟾뗀폃탔 럇뎣뗍 뇈뷏뗍 훐탔 뇈뷏룟 럇뎣룟 4 닺튵솴벼쫵틀듦뛈 럇뎣뗍 뇈뷏뗍 훐탔 뇈뷏룟 럇뎣룟 5 닺튵뗄짺쏼훜웚 퓧웚 퓧웚떽훐웚 훐웚 훐웚떽뫳웚 뫳웚 6 헾닟뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔 럇뎣늻좷뚨 뇈뷏늻좷뚨 훐탔 뇈뷏좷뚨 럇뎣좷뚨 7 뺺헹뮷뺳뗄늻좷뚨탔 럇뎣늻좷뚨 뇈뷏늻좷뚨 훐탔 뇈뷏좷뚨 럇뎣좷뚨 8 닺튵벼쫵뗄늻좷뚨탔 럇뎣늻좷뚨 뇈뷏늻좷뚨 훐탔 뇈뷏좷뚨 럇뎣좷뚨 닺튵쇐뇭쟫볻쿂튳ꆣ훔탄룐킻쓺뗄놦맳틢볻ꎡ 몫춮 짏몣붻춨듳톧낲첩뺭볃폫맜샭톧풺 73
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 닺 벼쫵 쿺쫛쟾뗀닺튵솴벼쫵닺튵뗄 헾닟뮷뺳뗄뺺헹뮷뺳뗄닺튵벼쫵뗄닺튵 폃탔 폃탔 폃탔 틀듦뛈 짺쏼훜웚 늻좷뚨탔 늻좷뚨탔 늻좷뚨탔 1 뗧솦ꆢ헴웻ꆢ죈쮮뗄짺닺뫍릩 펦튵 2 뗧웷믺킵벰웷닄훆퓬튵 3 럄횯튵 4 럾ힰ벰웤쯻쿋캬훆욷훆퓬튵 5 뫚즫뷰쫴튱솶벰톹퇓볓릤튵 6 뮯톧풭쇏벰뮯톧훆욷훆퓬튵 7 붻춨퓋쫤짨놸훆퓬튵 8 쎺첿닉톡튵 9 웕춨믺킵훆퓬튵 10 쪳욷볓릤튵 11 퓬횽벰횽훆욷튵 12 춨탅벰쿠맘짨놸훆퓬튵 13 췁쒾릤돌붨훾튵 14 튽튩훆퓬튵 15 틻쇏훆퓬튵 16 틇웷틇뇭벰컄뮯ꆢ냬릫폃믺킵 훆퓬튵 17 폐즫뷰쫴튱솶벰톹퇓볓릤튵 18 쪳욷훆퓬튵 19 폃짨놸훆퓬튵 20 ퟔ살쮮뗄짺닺뫍릩펦튵 74
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 뢽슼3 헫뛔닺튵쳘탔뗄볒움럖뷡맻믣ퟜ 닺튵뮷 쿺쫛쟾닺튵헾닟뮷뺺헹뮷닺튵벼닺튵솴닺튵뗄닺벼쫵뺳늻좷닺튵 뗀폃폃탔욽뺳뗄늻뺳뗄늻쫵뗄늻벼쫵틀짺쏼훜폃탔 폃탔 뚨탔욽탔 뻹횵 좷뚨탔 좷뚨탔 좷뚨탔 듦뛈 웚 뻹횵 1 뗧솦ꆢ헴웻ꆢ죈쮮뗄짺닺뫍릩펦튵 2 뗧웷믺킵벰웷닄훆퓬튵 3 럄횯튵 4 럾ힰ벰웤쯻쿋캬훆욷훆퓬튵 5 뫚즫뷰쫴튱솶벰톹퇓볓릤튵 6 뮯톧풭쇏벰뮯톧훆욷훆퓬튵 7 붻춨퓋쫤짨놸훆퓬튵 8 쎺첿닉톡튵 9 웕춨믺킵훆퓬튵 10 쪳욷볓릤튵 11 퓬횽벰횽훆욷튵 12 춨탅벰쿠맘짨놸훆퓬튵 13 췁쒾릤돌붨훾튵 14 튽튩훆퓬튵 15 틻쇏훆퓬튵 16 틇웷틇뇭벰컄뮯ꆢ냬릫폃믺킵훆퓬튵 17 폐즫뷰쫴튱솶벰톹퇓볓릤튵 18 쪳욷훆퓬튵 19 폃짨놸훆퓬튵 20 ퟔ살쮮뗄짺닺뫍릩펦튵 75
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 뢽슼4 ퟝ쿲튻쳥햽싔뮯폫웳튵벨킧쿠맘탔럖컶뷡맻 1. 뗧솦ꆢ헴웻ꆢ죈쮮뗄짺닺뫍릩펦튵 Correlations VAS ROA VAS Pearson Correlation . (2-tailed) .529N 4747ROA Pearson Correlation . (2-tailed) .529N 47472. 뗧웷믺킵벰웷닄훆퓬튵 Correlations VAS ROA VAS Pearson Correlation (*)Sig. (2-tailed) .019N 4242ROA Pearson Correlation .220(*)1Sig. (2-tailed) .191N 4242* Correlation is significant at the level (2-tailed). 3. 럄횯튵 Correlations VAS ROA VAS Pearson Correlation . (2-tailed) .613N 3737ROA Pearson Correlation . (2-tailed) .613N 3737 4. 럾ힰ벰웤쯻쿋캬훆욷훆퓬튵 Correlations VAS ROA VAS Pearson Correlation . (2-tailed) .394N 1414ROA Pearson Correlation . (2-tailed) .394N 141476
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 5. 뫚즫뷰쫴튱솶벰톹퇓볓릤튵 Correlations VAS ROA VAS Pearson Correlation (*)Sig. (2-tailed) .047N 3232ROA Pearson Correlation .132(*)1Sig. (2-tailed) .478N 3232* Correlation is significant at the level (2-tailed). 6. 뮯톧풭쇏벰뮯톧훆욷훆퓬튵 Correlations VAS ROA VAS Pearson Correlation . (2-tailed) .900N 9090ROA Pearson Correlation .0141Sig. (2-tailed) .900N 9090 7. 붻춨퓋쫤짨놸훆퓬튵 Correlations VAS ROA VAS Pearson Correlation (*)Sig. (2-tailed) .025N 6161ROA Pearson Correlation .171(*)1Sig. (2-tailed) .245N 6161* Correlation is significant at the level (2-tailed). 77
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 8. 쎺첿닉톡튵 Correlations VAS ROA VAS Pearson Correlation (*)Sig. (2-tailed) .026N 1313ROA Pearson Correlation .354(*)1Sig. (2-tailed) .259N 1313* Correlation is significant at the level (2-tailed) 9. 웕춨믺킵훆퓬튵 Correlations VAS ROA VAS Pearson Correlation . (2-tailed) .547N 3333ROA Pearson Correlation .1161Sig. (2-tailed) .547N 3333 10. 쪳욷볓릤튵 Correlations VAS ROA VAS Pearson Correlation (*)Sig. (2-tailed) .027N 2323ROA Pearson Correlation (*)1Sig. (2-tailed) .273N 2323* Correlation is significant at the level (2-tailed). 78
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 11.춨탅벰쿠맘짨놸훆퓬튵 Correlations VAS ROA VAS Pearson Correlation . (2-tailed) .708N 2121ROA Pearson Correlation . (2-tailed) .708N 2121 12. 쪳욷훆퓬튵 Correlations VAS ROA VAS Pearson Correlation (*)Sig. (2-tailed) .019N 66ROA Pearson Correlation .622(*)1Sig. (2-tailed) .187N 66* Correlation is significant at the level (2-tailed). 13. 췁쒾릤돌붨훾튵 Correlations VAS ROA VAS Pearson Correlation . (2-tailed) .550N 2626ROA Pearson Correlation .1311Sig. (2-tailed) .550N 2626 79
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 14. 튽튩훆퓬튵 Correlations VAS ROA VAS Pearson Correlation (**)Sig. (2-tailed) .003N 7373ROA Pearson Correlation .382(**)1Sig. (2-tailed) .003N 7373** Correlation is significant at the level (2-tailed). 15. 틇웷틇뇭벰컄뮯ꆢ냬릫폃믺킵훆퓬튵 Correlations VAS ROA VAS Pearson Correlation . (2-tailed) .730N 1212ROA Pearson Correlation .1181Sig. (2-tailed) .730N 121216. 틻쇏훆퓬튵 Correlations VAS ROA VAS Pearson Correlation . (2-tailed) .954N 2323ROA Pearson Correlation . (2-tailed) .954N 232317. 폐즫뷰쫴튱솶벰톹퇓볓릤튵 Correlations VAS ROA VAS Pearson Correlation . (2-tailed) .542N 2323ROA Pearson Correlation .1341Sig. (2-tailed) .542N 2323 80
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 18. 퓬횽벰횽훆욷튵 Correlations VAS ROA VAS Pearson Correlation (*)Sig. (2-tailed) .034N 2020ROA Pearson Correlation .230(*)1Sig. (2-tailed) .344N 2020* Correlation is significant at the level (2-tailed). 19. 폃짨놸훆퓬튵 Correlations VAS ROA VAS Pearson Correlation . (2-tailed) .437N 4444ROA Pearson Correlation .1251Sig. (2-tailed) .437N 4444 20. ퟔ살쮮뗄짺닺뫍릩펦튵 Correlations VAS ROA VAS Pearson Correlation . (2-tailed) .152N 55ROA Pearson Correlation . (2-tailed) .152N 55 81
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 훂 킻 쯦ퟅ뇏튵싛컄쇙뷼캲짹ꎬ컒뗄퇐뺿짺짺퇄튲벴붫룦튻뛎실ꎬ뷨듋믺믡ꎬ컒쿫튪쿲퓚헢솽쓪냫뗄쏀뫃쪱맢훐룸폫컒뫜듳냯훺뫍맄샸뗄샏쪦ꆢ춬톧뫍엳폑뇭쪾ퟮ헦돏뗄룐킻ꆣ 쫗쿈ꎬ컒튪룐킻컒뗄쒸킣ꎬ듓놾뿆튻횱떽퇐뺿짺붫뷼7쓪뗄쪱볤ꎬ컒퓚헢샯돉뎤ꆣ쒸킣룸쇋컒럡뢻뗄횪쪶ꆢ뿭삫뗄쫓튰뫍믭듯뗄탘뷳ꆣ쫴폚죋짺ퟮ쏀뫃뗄튻뛎믘틤뚺쇴퓚쇋헢욬??킣풰ꆣ 웤듎ꎬ컒튪훔탄룐킻컒뗄떼쪦믆떤샏쪦ꎬ쯻늻뷶뷶퓚뇏튵싛컄짏룸쇋컒뫜뛠뗄뗣늦뫍횸떼ꎬ룼훘튪뗄쫇ꎬ믆샏쪦풨늩뗄톧쪶뫍뛔톧쫵뗄죈쟩쫇컒틔뫳톧쾰뫍릤ퟷ뗄냱퇹ꆣ믆샏쪦뛔듽톧쫵퇐뺿튻쮿늻릶ꎬ훎톧퇏뷷ꆣ믆샏쪦뗄뿎쳃럧좤폄쒬ꎬ폖싟벭쟥컺ꎬ뛔쫂컯폐ퟅ짮뿌뗄뚴달솦ꎬퟜ쫇벤웰컒룼짮뗄쮼뾼ꆣ헦돏뗄룐킻믆샏쪦룸폫컒돉뎤뗄웴뗏ꆣ 듋췢ꎬ낲첩뺭볃폫맜샭톧풺뗄룷캻샏쪦튲퓚컒뗄돉뎤뗀슷짏룸쇋컒뫜뛠뗄냯훺ꆣ쯻쏇뗄뺫닊뿎쳃ꎬ죃컒뛔뺭볃뫍맜샭폐쇋룼짮뗄룐컲ꎻ쯻쏇뗄뺴튵뺫짱ꎬ죃컒쇬싔떽춶죫ퟔ벺쯹죈낮뗄쫂튵쫇뛠쎴탒뢣뗄쫂쟩ꆣ룐킻룷캻샏쪦뗄ힻힻ뷌믥뫍탁쟚엠폽ꆣ 컒뮹튪짮짮룐킻헢솽쓪냫뗄퇐뺿짺짺퇄훐ꎬ엣냩컒ퟳ폒ꎬ룺컒튻웰럖쿭뿬샖뫍럖떣뿠쏆뗄춬톧쏇ꎬ틔벰춬쏅뗄쪦탖쪦뷣쪦뗜쪦쏃쏇ꎬ쯻쏇퓚톧쾰ꆢ릤ퟷ뫍짺믮짏룸쇋컒뫜뛠냯훺뫍횧돖ꆣ컒붫폀풶헤님헢럝쓑뗃뗄폑틪ꎬ늢힣뢣듳볒ퟟ돶킣풰틔뫳퓧죕쪵쿖ퟔ벺뗄쏎쿫ꆣ 컒뮹튪룐킻컒뗄쇬떼뫍춬쫂쏇ꎬ퓚붫뷼튻쓪뗄쪵쾰웚볤ꎬ쯻쏇뫁늻쇟?뗄룺컒붲쫶ퟔ벺뗄돉뎤뺭퇩ꎬ횸뗣컒톧쾰뫍잰뷸뗄랽쿲ꎬ죃컒룼뿬뗄샭뷢뫍쇬컲뷰죚탐튵ꆣ퓚뇏튵싛컄킴ퟷ웚볤ꎬ쯻쏇튲룸폨쇋컒쒪듳뗄맘탄뫍횧돖ꎬ죃컒럇뎣룐뚯ꆣ ퟮ뫳ꎬ컒튪룐킻컒뗄뢸쒸ꎬ쯻쏇뗄냼죝뫍듳뛈죃컒폐쇋톡퓱ퟔ벺랢햹뗀슷뗄뿕볤ꎬ퓚죋짺뗄뗀슷짏쪱뿌룸폨컒컞쮽뗄맘뮳뫍맄샸ꆣ컒뷱쳬좡뗃뗄튻쟐ꎬ뚼샫늻뾪뢸쒸퓚룷랽쏦뗄횧돖ꆣ잧퇔췲폯뚼컞램 퓚뷱뫳뗄죋짺뗀슷짏ꎬ컒붫튻죧볈췹뗘얬솦쿲짏ꎬ늻림뢺쯹폐맘낮컒뗄죋뗄웚췻ꆣ ퟮ뫳ꎬ쿲퓚냙쎦횮훐움짳놾컄뗄룷캻샏쪦뇭쪾훔탄뗄룐킻ꎡ82
짏몣붻춨듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵쪵횤퇐뺿 릥뛁톧캻웚볤랢뇭뗄톧쫵싛컄쒿슼 [1] 몫춮ꎬꆶ펰쿬웳튵ퟝ쿲튻쳥뮯벨킧뗄햽싔웚좨볛횵퇐뺿ꆷꎬꆶ뿆톧벼쫵폫릤돌ꆷꎬ2009쓪뗚9뻭뗚8웚 83
影响企业纵向一体化绩效的战略期权价值实证研究作者：韩昕彤学位授予单位：上海交通大学 本文读者也读过(1条)1. 郭美斌.Guo Meibin 论企业纵向一体化经营模式的优化问题[期刊论文]-广西大学梧州分校学报2003,13(2) 本文链接：
