뗚28뻭ꆡ뗚8웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡVol128,No182009쓪ꆡꆡ8퓂ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ벼ꆡ쫵ꆡ뺭ꆡ볃TechnologyEconomicsAug.,2009믹폚춻뇤샭싛뗄릩펦솴춻랢탅폃럧쿕쒣탍ퟞ믔쾼,룟탂퇞(커몺듳톧뺭볃폫맜샭톧풺,커몺430072)햪ꆡ튪:놾컄붫춻뇤샭싛펦폃폚릩펦솴춻랢탅폃럧쿕컊쳢퇐뺿ꆣ뾼싇떽춻랢탅폃쫂볾뗄랢짺쳘뗣,늢뷡뫏릩펦솴놾짭뗄쳘헷,놾컄릹붨쇋릩펦솴춻랢탅폃럧쿕쒣탍,늢뷸탐쇋럂헦럖컶,횼퓚쳡릩튻훖쓜릻폐킧럖컶릩펦솴춻랢탅폃럧쿕뗄랽램,캪뷸튻늽췘햹퇐뺿뗬뚨믹뒡ꆣ맘볼듊:춻랢탅폃럧쿕;릩펦솴;탅폃럧쿕쒣탍;춻뇤샭싛;럂헦럖컶훐춼럖샠뫅:F270ꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:Aꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:1002-980X(2009)08-0115-041ꆡ컄쿗믘맋벰컊쳢쳡돶맜샭냼삨뛔탨쟳럧쿕ꆢ탅쾢풴럧쿕ꆢ뺭볃늨뚯벰샻죳럧쿕뫍웵풼럧쿕뗄맜샭[8]ꆣ릩펦솴맜샭쫇쿖듺웳튵탂뗄맜샭헜톧뫍맜샭샭ퟛ짏뿉틔뾴돶,펰쿬릩펦솴탅폃럧쿕뗄훮뛠틲쓮ꆣ죋쏇냑평닺욷짺닺뫍쇷춨맽돌훐쯹짦벰뗄릩펦쯘폐뗀뗂틲쯘ꆢ뺭볃틲쯘ꆢ훆뛈틲쯘ꆢ컄뮯틲쯘틔벰짌ꆢ훆퓬짌ꆢ뒢퓋짌ꆢ엺랢짌ꆢ쇣쫛짌틔벰ퟮ훕쿻럑헟춻랢탔틲쯘뗈ꆣ춻랢탔틲쯘튲뿉틔럖캪쓚늿춻랢탔ퟩ돉뗄릩탨췸싧,뾴ퟷ쫇튻룶늻뿉럖룮뗄폐믺헻쳥,틲쯘뫍췢늿춻랢탔틲쯘ꆣ쓚늿춻랢탔틲쯘훷튪짦벰돆웤캪릩펦솴ꆣ평폚릩펦솴췸싧평뻟폐늻춬뫋탄뺺릩펦솴쓚늿돉풱웳튵뗄뇤뚯ꆢ풴엤훃뗈ꆣ췢늿춻헹솦뗄룷뫏ퟷ웳튵ퟩ돉,쪵쿖쇋풴뫍뫋탄쓜솦뗄랢탔틲쯘뛔헻룶릩펦솴짵훁헻룶짧믡뚼폐펰쿬,죧ퟮ병엤훃,틲듋쓜뛔쫐뎡ퟶ돶뿬쯙랴펦,폐킧붵뗍돉뺭볃뮷뺳훐뗄춻좻뇤뮯(듎듻캣믺뗈)ꆣ쿠뛔폚쓚늿놾,쳡룟뿍뮧뗄싺틢뛈뫍훒돏뛈,평듋쳡짽릩펦솴뗄춻뇤틲쯘살쮵,췢늿틲쯘뛔릩펦솴뗄펰쿬뿉쓜쫇볤헻쳥벨킧ꆣ뷓뗄ꆢ뫪맛뗄ꆣ좻뛸,춻랢탔틲쯘뗄랢짺뺭뎣쫇춻좻릩펦솴ퟷ캪평룷뛀솢웳튵ퟩ돉뗄뫏ퟷퟩ횯ꆰ,뺺뗄ꆢ쳸풾탔뗄뫍늻솬탸뗄,죋쏇뫜쓑룸돶튻룶뷏ힼ좷뫏ꆱ쫇웤퓋탐뗄믹놾맦퓲ꆣ뫏ퟷ뷢뻶쇋릩펦솴샻죳뗄풤닢,떫쫇쯼뿉쓜떼훂릩펦솴탅폃뗄춻뇤ꆣ믹폚뗄살풴컊쳢,뺺헹퓲뷢뻶쇋릩펦솴샻죳뗄럖엤컊쳢ꆣ틔짏싛쫶,놾컄뾼싇탅폃춻랢탔쫂볾랢짺뗄쳘뗣ꆢ닺좻뛸,평폚룷뫏ퟷ웳튵뻹캪뛀솢뺭볃샻틦뗄쪵쳥,늢짺뗄펰쿬,춬쪱뷡뫏릩펦솴놾짭뗄쳘헷,뎢쫔탔뗘릹듦퓚폐쿞샭탔,틲뛸퓚짦벰샻죳럖엤뗄퓋탐맽돌훐,붨웤탅폃럧쿕쒣탍,캪뷸튻늽췘햹퇐뺿뗬뚨믹뒡ꆣ늻뿉뇜쏢뗘듦퓚ퟅ튻뚨뗄탅폃럧쿕컊쳢ꆣ쯦ퟅ릩펦솴닣쫽뗄퓶볓,릩펦솴돉풱웳튵훰붥퓶뛠,릩펦솴뗄2ꆡ쒣탍릹붨뷡릹튲죕쟷뢴퓓ꆣ릩펦솴뗄ꆰ뢴퓓탔ꆱ떼훂쇋릩펦솴211ꆡ쒣탍릹붨뗄쮼슷벰볙짨럧쿕뗄퓶볓ꆣ뛔폚릩펦솴럧쿕컊쳢,튵뷧뫍톧쫵뷧죴춻랢탔쫂볾뛔릩펦솴뗄돉풱,폈웤쫇뫋탄돉룸폨쇋룟뛈맘힢,뫜뛠톧헟듓늻춬닣쏦뫍뷇뛈럖컶풱닺짺쇋펰쿬,쓇쎴쫆뇘믡펰쿬릩펦솴헻쳥뗄탅폃;쇋릩펦솴뗄럧쿕틲쯘ꆣ죧:듓릩펦솴뷡릹닣쏦럖컶,떫쒳튻춻랢탔쫂볾뛔릩펦솴탅폃쫇럱닺짺펰쿬ꆢ닺죏캪릩펦솴쓚늿럧쿕뿉틔럖캪릩펦럧쿕ꆢ탨쟳럧쿕ꆢ짺퓵퇹뗄펰쿬ꆢ헢킩펰쿬룃죧뫎뫢솿,탨튪헒돶튻룶쇷돌럧쿕ꆢ췸싧럧쿕쯄듳샠[1];듓릩펦솴맘쾵뗄뷇뛈뫏샭뗄쒣탍,틔랴펳헢킩쳘탔,늢쓜릻뷢뻶헢킩컊럖컶,죏캪릩펦솴쓚늿돉풱웳튵횮볤튲듦퓚맘쾵럧쳢ꆣ캪듋,ퟶ돶틔쿂볙짨:쿕ꆣ맘쾵럧쿕쫇횸릩펦솴뫏ퟷ웳튵뗄탐캪욫샫릲춬볙짨1:춻랢탔쫂볾뛔릩펦솴뗄펰쿬쫇돖탸탔쒿뇪쯹퓬돉뗄럧쿕,훷튪냼삨탅죎럧쿕ꆢ뗀뗂럧쿕뫍뗄쟒뿉폃뷗풾몯쫽살뇭쪾ꆣ돉풱ꆰ쯸뚨ꆱ럧쿕[2-4];듓릩펦솴풴쇷뗄뷇뛈럖컶,볙짨2:탅폃춻랢쫂볾랢짺쫽럾듓Poisson럖붫릩펦솴럧쿕냼럖캪컯쇷럧쿕ꆢ뷰쇷럧쿕ꆢ탅쾢쇷늼ꆣ럧쿕뫍횪쪶쇷럧쿕[5-7]ꆣ튲폐톧헟죏캪릩펦솴럧쿕탅폃춻랢쫂볾듎쫽쫇튻룶쯦믺뇤솿,퓚늻춬뗄쫕룥죕웚:2009-06-07ퟷ헟볲뷩:ퟞ믔쾼(1957ꆪ),얮,뫓쓏뒨죋,커몺듳톧뺭볃폫맜샭톧풺뷌쫚,맜샭톧늩쪿,퇐뺿랽쿲:릩펦솴뻶닟폫폅뮯ꆢ뢴퓓뿆톧폫럧쿕맜샭;룟탂퇞(1984ꆪ),얮,뫓쓏커?죋,커몺듳톧뺭볃폫맜샭톧풺벼쫵뺭볃벰맜샭튵쮶쪿퇐뺿짺,퇐뺿랽쿲:릩펦솴뻶닟폫폅뮯ꆢ뢴퓓뿆톧폫럧쿕맜샭ꆣ115
벼쫵뺭볃ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뗚28뻭ꆡ뗚8웚쪱볤뛎,탅폃춻랢쫂볾랢짺뗄듎쫽쎻폐뇘좻뗄솪쾵,쪽(4)훐,Si캪뗚i듎탅폃춻랢쫂볾랢짺뗄쪱쫇쿠뮥뛀솢뗄,쟒늻듦퓚닮틬,늢럾듓춬튻럖늼ꆣ틲볤,떱탅폃춻랢쫂볾뛔웳튵탅폃쾵춳퓬돉뗄펰쿬뎬듋,뿉볙짨탅폃춻랢쫂볾랢짺듎쫽퓚돤럖킡뗄쪱볤맽튻뚨벫쿞쪱,웳튵탅폃ힴ첬붫늻퓙캬돖쿖폐쮮욽,뛎t쓚,랢짺튻듎뗄룅싊폫t돉헽뇈,솽듎믲솽듎틔뛸믡뇤돉쇭췢튻훖쮮욽,늢짨헢쪱헽뫃랢짺쇋k볾짏뗄룅싊벫킡,틔훂뿉틔뫶싔ꆣ헢킩탔훊폫Poisson탅폃춻랢쫂볾ꆣ맽돌뗄볆쫽맽돌쫇컇뫏뗄,틲듋볙짨탅폃춻랢쫂볾ퟛ짏럖컶,뿉릹붨죧쪽(5)쯹쪾뗄쒣탍살쏨쫶춻랢짺쫽럾듓Poisson럖늼쫇뫏샭뗄ꆣ랢탔쫂볾뛔릩펦솴탅폃럧쿕뗄펰쿬ꆣ볙짨N(t)3:춻랢탔쫂볾뛔릩펦솴뗄펰쿬돌뛈쯦쪱볤틔뢺횸쫽쮥복ꆣ<(t)=HTHT)tꛎ(t)=tꇆY-ꛁ(t-Siieꆣ(5)i=1212ꆡ쒣탍릹붨뾼싇쒳튻쪱볤볤룴쓚탅폃춻랢쫂볾뛔탅폃럧쿕짨퓚쪱볤볤룴(0펰쿬뗄웚췻횵:볇t캪웳튵탅폃쮮욽퓚탅폃춻랢쫂,t)쓚랢짺뗄펰쿬릩펦솴탅폃뗄탅폃춻랢쫂볾쫽뗄볆쫽맽돌캪{N(볾펰쿬쿂(늻뾼싇뇰뗄틲쯘)캬돖웤쿖폐쮮욽뗄쪱볤t),tꇝ0},쯼럾듓잿뛈닎쫽캪ꛋ뗄늴쯉맽돌ꆣ퓚쪱볤볤룴(0볤룴,퓲폐쪽(6):,t)쓚랢짺k볾탅폃춻랢쫂볾뗄룅싊뿉틔뇭쪾캪쪽N(t)(1)ꆣE{<-ꛁ(t-s)(t)|N(t)=n}=E{HTtꇆYiiei=1Pt(0,t)=P{N(0,t)=k}=(ꛋkt)-ꛋtek!N(t)=n}ꆡꆡꆡ(t>0;k=00,1,2,ꆭ,N(t))ꆣ(1)벴퓚(0,t)쓚랢짺k볾탅폃춻랢쫂볾뗄룅싊럖=N(t)늼캪ꛋE{ꇆY-ꛁ(t-s)iieN(t)=N}t뗄늴쯉럖늼,탨튪좷뚨뗄캨튻닎쫽쫇뎣쫽ꛋi=10(ꛋ>0)ꆣꛋ뗄쪵볊틢틥캪욽뻹떥캻쪱볤쫂볾쫽뗄랢짺듎쫽,뛔웤뿉틔뷸탐맀볆ꆣ=n뢴뫏늴쯉럖늼:퓚ꇆE-ꛁ(t-s){Yi|N(t)=n}E{ei|N(t)=n}i=1(0,t)쓚랢짺뗄춻랢쫂볾쫇0,춻랢탔쫂볾쎻폐닺짺펰쿬N(t),뗚i듎춻랢쫂볾뛔릩펦솴탅폃뗄펰쿬캪Yi(in=1,2,ꆭ,N(t))ꆣYi쫇튻ퟩ뛀솢춬럖늼뗄쯦믺뇤=EY-5t0eꇆE5s{ei|N(t)=n},춻랢탔쫂볾(6)솿i=1,쟒폫{N(t),tꇝ0}튲쫇뛀솢뗄ꆣ쇮ꆡ닺짺펰쿬N(뛔폚늴쯉쯦믺맽돌{N(t),tꇝ0},퓚N(t)=nt)X(t)=ꇆYi,(2)쪱,쫂볾쿠볌랢짺뗄쪱볤S1,S2,ꆭ,Sn뗄쳵볾룅싊i=1퓲쯦믺맽돌{X럖늼몯쫽폫n룶퓚(0,t)짏쿠뮥뛀솢춬뻹퓈럖늼뗄(t),tꇝ0}캪뢴뫏늴쯉맽돌ꆣX(t)뗄틢틥뻍쫇횸퓚쪱볤볤룴쮳탲춳볆솿뗄럖늼몯쫽쿠춬ꆣ(0,t)쓚랢짺뗄탅폃춻랢쫂볾뛔릩펦솴탅폃뗄펰쿬ꆣ볇U1,U2,ꆭ,Un캪(0,t)짏뛀솢춬뻹퓈럖늼뗄뾼싇춻랢탔쫂볾뛔릩펦솴뗄펰쿬,룹뻝뺭퇩뿉쯦믺뇤솿,퓲폐쪽(7)ꆣnn횪,죴폐펰쿬퓲룃펰쿬펦쫇돖탸탔뗄,틲듋,뿉틔뷨폃뷗풾몯쫽HTt살뇭쪾,죧쪽(3)쯹쪾ꆣꇆE5s{ei|N(t)=n}=E{ꇆ5sei|N(t)=n}i=1i=1nn=E5U5Uxdx{ꇆe(i)}=E{ꇆei}=n=n5t(e=1ꇒꇞ5eHT0,늻닺짺펰쿬뗄춻랢탔쫂볾0t5tt=i=1i1,닺짺펰쿬뗄춻랢탔쫂볾랢짺뫳(Tꇝꆣt)-1)ꆣ(7)(3)릩펦솴훐뗄웳튵퓚쪱볤볤룴쯹틔E-5t{ꛎ(t)|N(t)=N}=n(1-e)EY,벴(0,t)쓚쯹랢짺뗄5t춻랢쫂볾쫽N(t)럾듓닎쫽캪ꛋ뗄늴쯉럖늼맽돌,탅폐쪽(8)ꆣ폃춻랢쫂볾뛔웳튵탅폃뗄펰쿬돌뛈캪Y,쟒쿠뮥뛀솢늢춬럖늼,Y쯦쪱볤틔뢺횸쫽쮥복,벴E{ꛎ(t)|N(t)=N-5t}=N(t)(1-e)EYt=0쪱,펰5t쿬캪Y0,퓚t쪱뿌펰쿬캪Y-5t0e,5>0ꆣ죴펰쿬돌뛈E{ꛎ(t)}=E{E{ꛎ(t)|N(t)}}=ꛋEY(1-5t-e)ꆣ(8)쫇뿉볓뗄,쓇쎴퓚T쪱뿌ퟜ뗄펰쿬돌뛈캪ꛎ5(t),죧쪽(4)쯹쪾ꆣE{ꛎ(t)}=ꛋEY(1-5t-e)5N(t)ꛎ(t)=ꇆY-ꛁ(t-S)iieꆣ(4)쪽(8)훐,E{ꛎ(t)}=ꛋEY-5t(1-e)캪t쪱볤볤i=15116
ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡퟞ믔쾼뗈:믹폚춻뇤샭싛뗄릩펦솴춻랢탅폃럧쿕쒣탍룴쓚탅폃춻랢쫂볾뛔웳튵탅폃럧쿕펰쿬뗄웚췻횵ꆣ볼쯦믺뇤솿Hꆢꛋ;ꋛ좷뚨맘볼쯦믺뇤솿뗄룅싊럖늼ꆪꆪꆪ뢴늴쯉럖늼ꆣ3ꆡ릩펦솴럧쿕럂헦럖컶럂헦럖컶맽돌죧쿂:폃Matlab죭볾뗄쯦믺쫽닺쓢틔튻룶ퟮ볲떥뗄릩펦솴:돉풱뷶냼삨릩펦짌ꆢ짺웷poissrnd(1,1,200)닺짺100룶늴쯉럖늼쯦믺짺닺짌뫍쿺쫛짌,뷸탐럂헦럖컶ꆣ볙뚨룷웳튵탅폃쫽,폃round(rand(1,100))닺짺100룶0믲1뗄쯦ힴ첬랢짺룄뇤뗄횵Ai틀듎캪30,70,50ꆣ캪볲뮯믺쫽,폃살뇭쪾뷗풾몯쫽뛔릩펦솴탅폃뗄펰쿬돌뛈;볆쯣,쇮5=1ꆢt=1ꆣ붫쫽뻝쫤죫쒣탍(5),쒣쓢볆쯣돶300룶웚췻횵Ai,ꋙ좷뚨ꆢ솿뮯쒿뇪럖컶뇤솿E{<(t)};ꋚ좷뚨맘뷸탐럂헦럖컶ꆣ뇭1ꆡ릩펦솴럧쿕럂헦뷡맻듎쫽ꛋHA1A2A3flag듎쫽ꛋHA1A2A3flag110251187866137414919876051102918308681489346137160201271324768185065414201052003410338721966847121720300251180667111975417187053102715189681519247135320420291421965194694817458054102914480661064045185010510291742867198084916419055202813852671097145170620610281478365105784618838056112917657691659446105490710271099069155004911293057112712472681010448141080800271345268139535212327058213418177721269554173901910251494067144305312315059003012115721139646123890100127129726916970521606006011341864868183034914507011103117843701323249180410612027196276714917491939901210331313372118094512684062112517776661192348132070133031140757411331461181606320261923466118849194440140131115197119727471205906411281116967111974812737015203315556681067449108080651025161416612617491233401600331122974109324715103066002610757661772353192210171032195306914312471410806720271675269138394514142018303313022681655645102880680125193016714780541568601911291237867195394517257069112515078681263749179140201128174396912929451188007040271853869153934519943021012718401681815351186160711125194666110034914513022102712867651213347168570722029133566814769481650602310261437966189874911477073202819322671600847137680241129191666619987481245407401331375671173454511367025212519954691137054186271750131180517215850461448002610291287569154834719659076102911014681783548144070270027160766817237541362807710281055868178254815427028002817158651707154166750780030109637218103451748202920281154565144474813423079003014194731474045144180300126169126615018511033908020341874068113234618036031202912567681871146160530813028132846912608491744403210281204567185424719825082012710168691009254149860330133157527419843451325108300251490066163865212520034203412809681767747160260841026148976718424471028403500311407572157734818410085102811127661528491498303601331655371165344810185086002613252681716153181290370130168887211500461474608710251229569195124814124038302911836691459471207208800271285967133865114248039212816930681355246121680890127129956816030531366104000321941074143874510226090112814445651268847132140412029115206911209461269309101331256774118144817231042012816061681198150136030920031115627316569491556704301291008969105615210336093003210175711800245180870442029102466919940461334709401301610172127114710764045112813658681417948166860950131134227119319451259504611251598366150194910548096013112892731877849169490471027164456618737461422709711291658367167144710768048112719802671284748178370980030176127211514481574504910291103867180484710852099013117473146884518613050412511554681562949185890100103016083691726149104510ꆡꆡ힢:flag쫇뇪쪶럻,벴뇪쪶럧쿕쫇럱랢짺ꆣflag=0,뇭쪾럧쿕쎻폐랢짺;flag=1,뇭쪾럧쿕랢짺ꆣꆡꆡ듓뇭1훐뗄쫽뻝뿉틔뾴돶,퓚춻랢탔쫂볾랢짺100듎쪱,릩펦솴탅폃ힴ첬랢짺룄뇤뗄듎쫽폐2듎117
벼쫵뺭볃ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뗚28뻭ꆡ뗚8웚(뇈뷏틀뻝:웚췻횵킡폚횵쪱쒬죏캪럧쿕늻랢짺;솴훐돉풱웳튵뗄쯰쪧ꆣ볲떥살쮵,룹뻝웚췻볆쯣릫쪽(8),죴ꛋ뗈폚0,퓲웚췻횵캪0,럧쿕캴랢짺;죴웚췻횵킡폚횵쪱닎뾼컄쿗,럧쿕튲캴랢짺),늢쟒랢짺룄뇤뗄듳킡,벴탅폃쯰쪧튲뿉[1]ꆡ돂볗1릩펦솴럧쿕럖컶폫풤뺯쳥쾵[J].뿆벼쟩놨뾪랢볆쯣돶폫뺭볃,2008(1):11421151,틲듋,쒣탍<(t)=HTtꛎ(t)=N[2]ꆡ냘쿾럥1릩펦솴럧쿕폫맜샭[J].뫏ퟷ뺭볃폫뿆벼,2008(t)HT(4):392401tꇆY-ꛁ(t-S)iie뿉틔뫜뫃뗄풤닢탅폃럧쿕벰웤쯰i=1[3]ꆡ튶쫱뻽1탅폃럧쿕뗄늩?럖컶폫뛈솿쒣탍[M].놱뺩:훐쪧,뻟폐뷏룟뗄쪵폃볛횵ꆣ맺뺭볃돶냦짧,20081[4]ꆡ십쳬즽,췵뺲1믹폚릩펦짌맜샭뿢듦탅폃럧쿕뗄릩펦솴캥4ꆡ뷡싛풼럧쿕뿘훆[J].뺭볃뺭캳,2008(5):11721191[5]ꆡ샮뎬,쯯잿1잳틩릩펦솴럧쿕맜샭[J].훐맺벯쳥뺭볃,1)놾컄듓춻랢탔쫂볾랢짺뗄쯦믺탔돶랢,뾼싇릩펦솴탅폃럧쿕ퟔ짭뗄쳘헷2008(8):10821091,샻폃늴쯉럖늼몯쫽ꆢ뷗[6]ꆡ췵퇠,1믹폚Stackelberg늩?뗄릩펦솴탅폃럧쿕럖컶[J].풾몯쫽뗈살쏨믦릩펦솴럧쿕쒣탍,뷸탐볬퇩럖컶,볬컯쇷벼쫵,2008(2):892911퇩뷡맻폫쪵볊훐릩펦솴럧쿕쫇럱랢짺틔벰탅폃쯰쪧[7]ꆡXiaojunShi1Simultaneousdeterminationofthresholdde2듳킡뗈쿠컇뫏ꆣfaultriskcriterionandcredittermintwo2stagedsupplychain[Z].2008InternationalConferenceonWireless2)붫뷗풾몯쫽퓋폃떽쒣탍(5)훐,뿉틔폐킧뗄쪶뇰룷훖춻랢탔쫂볾,뇦컶웤쫇럱뛔릩펦솴탅폃닺짺Communications,NetworkingandMobileComputing,2008:124펰쿬ꆣ[8]ꆡGAONKARRS,VISWANADHAMN1Analyticalframe23)퓋폃룃쒣탍뛔릩펦솴탅폃럧쿕뷸탐럖컶,뿉workforthemanagementofriskinsupplychains[J].틔뷸탐쒣쓢럖컶,폐킧뗘풤닢럧쿕듳킡IEEETransactionsonautomationscienceandengineer2,캪톰쟳펦벱믲뷢뻶랽낸쳡릩믹뒡,폐훺폚ퟮ듳돌뛈뗄붵뗍릩펦ing,2007,4(2):26522731ModelonSuddenCreditRiskinSupplyChainBasedonCatastropheTheoryZouHuixia,GaoXinyan(EconomicsandManagementSchool,WuhanUniversity,Wuhan430072,China)Abstract:Thispaperappliesthecatastrophetheorytothestudyonsuddencreditrisksinsupplychain1Consideringthecharacteristicsofsud2dencreditissuesandthesupplychainitself,itconstructsthesuddencreditrisksmodelinsupplychain,andmakesasimulationanalysis,whichaimstoprovideanefficientapproachtoanalyzesuddencreditrisksinsupplychainandlaysthefoundationforfurtherresearches1Keywords:suddencreditrisk;supplychain;creditriskmodel;catastrophetheory;simulationanalysis(짏뷓뗚65튳)GameAnalysisonTechnologySpreadBasedonAgro2productsQualityandSafetyLiZhongdong(DepartmentofEconomics,ShandongInstituteofBusinessandTechnology,YantaiShandong264005,China)Abstract:Underthehypothesisthatproducers,consumers,regulatorsandothermajorparticipantsareunderboundedrationality,thispaperan2alyzesthestrategyselectionsbyusingthemethodofevolutionarygametheorywhenaproducerinteractswithotherproducers,consumers,andgovernmentalregulators,andrevealsthateconomicbenefitsisamaininternalfactorinfluencingtechnologydiffusionofqualityandsafety1Finally,itsuggeststhat,inordertorestrainthebehaviorsofunsafetechnologies,producersꆯillegalincomesshouldbecutdown,andpro2ductioncostsshouldbeincreased,andconsumersꆯdemandsforsafeagriculturalproductsshouldbeguidedandincreased,andre2regulatingtheregulatorsshouldbestrenthenedstrictly,andregulationfrequencyandsupervisionabilitiesshouldbeimproved1Keywords:technologydiffusion;qualityandsafetyofagriculturalproduct;evolutionarystablestrategy;boundedrationality;dynamicreplica2tion118
