뗚2005쓪2퓂ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ훐맺릤튵뺭볃ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡFeb1,20052웚(ퟜ203웚)ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡChinaIndustrialEconomyꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡNo12ꆾ맺쏱뺭볃퓋탐ꆿ닺욷쫐뎡폫뷰죚쫐뎡뗄햽싔뮥뚯폫뺭볃퓶뎤훜튵낲(훐맺죋쏱듳톧뺭볃톧풺,놱뺩100872)[햪튪]ꆡ닺욷쫐뎡폫뷰죚쫐뎡ퟷ캪탅쾢벯즢뫍웳튵볠뿘믺훆퓚릦쓜짏뻟폐튻뚨뗄쳦듺탔;춬쪱,떱쫂죋퓚솽룶쫐뎡짏뗄햽싔탐뚯폖믡닺짺틧돶킧펦,듓뛸탎돉솽룶쫐뎡볤뗄햽싔뮥늹맘쾵ꆣ솽쫐뎡볤뗄헢훖쿠뮥ퟷ폃뿍맛짏죵뮯쇋룷ퟔ뗄킭뗷쪧쇩컊쳢ꆣ뷸튻늽틽죫늻좷뚨탔,랢쿖떱쫂죋횪쪶뗄닮틬탔튲믡떼훂튵럖릤,듓뛸듌벤뻟폐늻춬튵횪쪶뗄죋닉좡폐틧돶킧펦뗄햽싔탐뚯,뷡맻떼훂쇋솽쫐뎡횮볤뗄햽싔뮥늹맘쾵ꆣ헢훖늻좷뚨탔틽랢뗄솽쫐뎡햽싔뮥늹뛔뺭볃퓶뎤폐훘튪펰쿬,늢쟒웤훐튲폐돋쫽킧펦ꆣ[맘볼듊]ꆡ릦쓜쳦듺;ꆡ햽싔뮥늹;ꆡ뺭볃퓶뎤[훐춼럖샠뫅]F123ꆡ[컄쿗뇪쪶싫]Aꆡ[컄헂뇠뫅]1006-480X(2005)02-0021-08튻ꆢ틽퇔뷰죚쫐뎡뫍닺욷쫐뎡뗄뮥뚯맘쾵틑뺭놻뺭볃톧볒맣랺맘힢ꆣ늼삼뗂(Brander)뗈죋랢햹뗄햽싔릫쮾뷰죚샭싛ꋙ죏캪,퓚폐쿞퓰죎뗄잰쳡쿂,떱닺욷쫐뎡뻟폐슢뛏뷡릹쳘헷쪱,웳튵뻍냑퓚뷰죚쫐뎡짏뗄죚햽싔ퟷ캪튻훖돐억탅뫅,폃틔쿔쪾ퟔ벺퓚닺욷쫐뎡짏뗄닺돶햽싔,쒿뗄쫇펰쿬뫍잿웈뺺헹뛔쫖룄뇤닺돶햽싔,횱훁냑뛔쫖룏돶쫐뎡ꆣ퓚헢킩퓧웚퇐뺿뗄믹뒡짏,키컖쳘(Showalter,1995)뷸튻늽랢햹쇋튻룶놴쳘삼뺺헹쒣탍,횤쏷쇋닺욷쫐뎡뛔웳튵뷰죚웵풼톡퓱뗄펰쿬ꆣ퓚헢룶쒣탍떱훐,쯻볙뚨웳튵횮볤햹뾪볛룱햽,떫쏦쇙닺욷쫐뎡짏뗄늻좷뚨탔풼쫸ꆣ돉놾늻좷뚨쪱,웳튵늻믡닉폃햽싔뢺햮ꆣ떫떱탨쟳늻좷뚨쪱,햽싔뢺햮퓲뻟폐폅쫆ꆣ벴죧맻늻좷뚨탔뫍탨쟳쿠맘,볛룱쫇ꆰ햽싔뮥늹뗄ꆱ,쓇쎴퓚웳튵뗄볛룱뺺헹쟩탎쿂,믡톡퓱뻹뫢뗄햮컱쮮욽;죧맻늻좷뚨탔뫍돉놾폐맘,볛룱뻍쫇ꆰ햽싔쳦듺뗄ꆱ,뢺햮뻍뒦폚햽싔쇓쫆,뻹뫢쪱늻믡톡퓱뢺햮ꆣ쫦십뫕(Schuhmaher,2001)춨맽튻룶춳튻뗄쒣탍ퟛ뫏쇋늼삼뗂뫍키컖쳘뗈죋뗄쮼쿫,훷튪뷡싛닎볻뇭1ꆣ햽싔릫쮾뷰죚뗄샭싛뗃떽쇋듳솿뗄뺭퇩쪵횤뗄횧돖ꆣ내헕헢킩샭싛,뷰죚쫐뎡짏웳튵뗄죚햽싔믡닺짺틧돶킧펦,떱룃킧펦늨벰떽닺욷쫐뎡짏쪱,믡뛔쫐뎡짏떱쫂죋뗄햽싔탐뚯탎돉펰쿬ꆣ랴맽살,닺욷쫐뎡뗄뷡릹쳘헷튲믡펰쿬떽뷰죚쫐뎡짏웳튵뗄죚햽싔탐뚯ꆣ떫쫇,헢킩샭싛뷶뷶맘탄ꆡꆡ[쫕룥죕웚]ꆡ2005-01-02ꆡꆡ[믹뷰쿮쒿]ꆡ맺볒짧믡뿆톧믹뷰쿮쒿ꆰ뗘랽헾뢮뺺헹폫뺭볃퓶뎤ꆱ(엺ힼ뫅04BJL019)ꆣꆡꆡ[ퟷ헟볲뷩]ꆡ훜튵낲(1968ꆪ),쓐,낲믕벨쾪죋,훐맺죋쏱듳톧뺭볃톧풺뢱뷌쫚,늩쪿짺떼쪦ꆣꆡꆡꋙꆡ폐맘햽싔릫쮾뷰죚샭싛뗄ퟛ쫶닎볻훜튵낲,뫕럯뷜1햽싔릫쮾뷰죚샭싛뗄탂뷸햹[R]1훐맺죋쏱듳톧뺭볃톧풺릤ퟷ싛컄,2004121
닺욷쫐뎡뷡릹뛔튻룶듺뇭탔웳튵죚뻶닟뗄펰쿬,믲헟튻룶듺뇭탔웳튵죚뷡릹뗄톡퓱뛔웤닺욷쫐뎡뺺헹햽싔뗄펰쿬,늢쎻폐짏짽떽뫪맛뺭볃뗄룟뛈,쳖싛뷰죚쫐뎡뫍닺욷쫐뎡훆뛈닣쏦뗄쿠뮥ퟷ폃맘쾵벰웤뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뿉쓜닺짺뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ뇭1죽훖듺뇭탔쒣탍뗄ퟮ폅햮컱쮮욽늻좷뚨탔쫽솿뺺헹탍웳튵볛룱뺺헹탍웳튵쓜솦ꆪ볛룱뺺헹탍웳튵탨쟳헽뗄뢺햮쮮욽헽뗄뢺햮쮮욽쇣뢺햮ꆡꆡꆡꆡ돉놾헽뗄뢺햮쮮욽쇣뢺햮ꆡꆡꆡ헽뗄뢺햮쮮욽ꆡꆡꆡ쇏살풴:Schuhmaher(2001)ꆣ뫜쏷쿔,죧맻닺욷쫐뎡쫇췪좫뺺헹뗄,MM뚨샭튲믡돉솢,헢틢캶ퟅ췪좫뺺헹쫐뎡짏웵풼뗄톡퓱뫁컞틢틥ꆣ랴맽살쮵,헽쫇쫐뎡뗄늻췪좫탔닅떼훂쇋늻춬샠탍뗄웵풼탎쪽ꆣ랴펳떽닺욷쫐뎡뫍뷰죚쫐뎡뗄맘쾵짏,뻍쫇쮵,헽쫇쫐뎡뗄늻췪좫탔닅틽웰쇋솽쫐뎡훆뛈뷡릹뗄쿠뮥ퟷ폃ꆣ늻춬샠탍뗄쫐뎡뷡릹쿂,뎧짌뗄쮽죋탅쾢펵폐돌뛈쫇늻춬뗄,헢뇘좻믡펰쿬떽뎧짌ퟔ짭뗄탐캪ꆣ샽죧,펵폐쮽죋탅쾢풽뛠뗄웳튵풽죝틗삩헅,듓뛸뿉쓜틽랢맽뛈춶ꆣ뷸튻늽뾴,풭쿈펵폐튻뚨돌뛈쮽죋탅쾢뗄뎧짌뺭맽탂튻싖삩헅뫳돉캪쪤헟,랴맽살폖볓잿쇋쯻뗄쮽죋탅쾢펵폐돌뛈ꆣ틲캪,쿖퓚쯻뿘훆쫐뎡볛룱뗄솦뛈폖잿뮯쇋ꆣ평폚헢훖평쫐뎡뷡릹쯹뇭쿖돶뗄뎧짌뗄쮽죋탅쾢럖늼뗄늻춬,떼훂쇋뷰죚웵풼탎쪽톡퓱뗄훘튪탔ꆣ틲캪,늻췪좫뺺헹뗄닺욷쫐뎡짏뎧짌펵폐늻춬돌뛈뗄쮽죋탅쾢,헢뻍틾몬ퟅ쓦쿲톡퓱뫍뗀뗂럧쿕탐캪,떱뎧짌떽뷰죚쫐뎡짏죚쪱,쯹폐뗄믺믡훷틥뚼믡듸떽뷰죚쫐뎡짏,춶헟캪쇋놣뮤ퟔ벺뗄좨틦,뇘좻튪톡퓱잡떱뗄웵풼탎쪽,쒿뗄쫇춨맽튻뚨뗄좨샻낲업살죵뮯뎧짌뿉쓜뗄믺믡훷틥탐캪ꆣ났싗(Allen,1993)쫗쿈뾴떽쇋헢튻뗣ꆣ쯻죏캪,닺욷쫐뎡뗄뺺헹돌뛈뻶뚨쇋뷰죚쫐뎡뗄쓚퓚훆뛈뷡릹ꆣ죧맻닺욷쫐뎡뗄뺺헹뛈뷏룟,쓇쎴뷰죚쫐뎡짏탅듻쫐뎡뻍믡햼폅쫆;죴닺욷쫐뎡뗄뺺헹뛈뷏뗍,퓲뷰죚쫐뎡짏막욱쫐뎡햼폅ꆣ샭평퓚폚,탅듻붻틗쫇튻듎탔뗄,늻훘뢴뗄,떱닺욷쫐뎡뺺헹뛈뷏뗍쪱,웳튵볒펵폐쮽죋탅쾢뗄쟩뿶뻍풽퇏훘,뷡맻퓬돉웳튵볒뫍뷰죚훐뷩횮볤듦퓚퇏훘뗄탅쾢늻뛔돆,헢믡떼훂튻듎탔뗄탅듻붻틗뫏풼룹놾컞램듯돉ꆣ뛸떱닺욷쫐뎡뺺헹뛈뷏룟쪱,닺욷볛룱늨뚯쓜믹놾짏랴펳돶웳튵볒뗄짺닺뺭펪탅쾢,틲뛸듻뿮죋뇈뷏죝틗뫍웳튵볒듯돉탅듻붻틗뫏풼ꆣ춬퇹뗄뗀샭,막욱쫐뎡짏,컞쫽뗄춶헟닎폫막욱붻틗,쎿튻룶춶헟듓쫂튻듎붻틗,뚼쿠떱폚뫍웳튵뷸탐튻듎탅쾢붻쇷,떱쫐뎡믣벯뛠룶춶헟뗄춶탐캪쪱,뻍쿠떱폚춶헟폫웳튵볒뷸탐쇋뛠듎훘뢴붻틗,헢틢캶ퟅ웳튵볒뗄쮽죋탅쾢쓜릻퓚랴뢴뗄붻틗맽돌훐훰붥엻슶돶살ꆣ쯹틔,튻냣뗄룟탂벼쫵닺튵ꆢ슢뛏탔탐튵뗄웳튵닉좡막욱죚,뛸쿱얩튵뗈뺺헹탔탐튵,퓲틀삵탅듻쫐뎡ꆣ좻뛸,났싗냑닺욷쫐뎡뷡릹뛔뷰죚쫐뎡쓚늿뷡릹뗄펰쿬뷶뷶맩뷡캪웳튵볒쮽죋탅쾢뗄쿔쪾돌뛈,폫컒쏇뗄럖컶뮹쫇폐룹놾쟸뇰뗄ꆣ컒쏇죏캪,솽쫐뎡볤쿠뮥ퟷ폃뗄듦퓚쫇쫐뎡늻췪좫탔뗄뷡맻,뛸웳튵볒뗄쮽죋탅쾢뷶쫇늻췪좫쫐뎡뗄튻룶랽쏦ꆣ뫜쏷쿔,죧맻놾쫐뎡쫇췪좫뗄,났싗뗄뷡싛뻍컞램돉솢,틲캪듋쪱뷰죚뷡릹폫풴엤훃컞맘ꆣ떱솽쫐뎡뚼쫇늻췪좫뗄,쓇쎴웳튵볒뗄쮽죋탅쾢뿏뚨믡펰쿬떽솽쫐뎡뗄뷡릹뻹뫢,돽듋횮췢,탅쾢늻뛔돆뮹뿉쓜뇭쿖캪춶헟뗄폅쫆탅쾢믲쿻럑헟뗄폅쫆탅쾢,헢튲믡펰쿬솽쫐뎡뗄뷡릹뻹뫢ꆣ샽죧,룟탂벼쫵탐튵훐,럧쿕춶웳튵볒췹췹뇈짺닺웳튵볒퓚닺욷쫐뎡잱솦랽쏦뻟폐룼뛠뗄튵탅쾢(Berger,Udell,1998)ꆣ죧맻쎻폐헢훖탅쾢뗄쿠뛔폅쫆,럧쿕춶붻틗튲뫜쓑듯돉ꆣ났싗뗄쇭튻룶늻ퟣ쫇뛔탅듻쫐뎡붻틗뷡릹에뛏뗄쪧컳ꆣ탅듻쫐뎡붻틗뗄훎샭믹놾짏럖솽룶늿럖,튻늿럖쫇ퟷ캪믹뒡뗄죽뇟훎샭;쇭튻늿럖쫇ퟷ캪훷쳥뗄쮫뇟훎샭ꆣ뛔폚죽뇟훎샭뷡릹살쮵,튻22
듎탔럇훘뢴뗄탅듻붻틗튲탭쫇튻훖웕뇩쿖쿳,좻뛸,뛔폚쮫뇟훎샭뷡릹살쮵,뷨듻쮫랽쪵볊짏퓚튻뚨뗄쪱웚쓚듓쫂뛠듎탔뗄훘뢴뗄붻틗,헢훖붻틗랽쪽쓜릻폫막욱쫐뎡튻퇹폐킧뗄엻슶쮽죋탅쾢ꆣ늩룱뫍컚뗂뛻(Berger,Udell,1998)뗄퇐뺿뇭쏷,탅듻쫐뎡짏뗄맘쾵웵풼췸춬퇹튲뿉틔뿋럾웳튵볒뗄쮽죋탅쾢컊쳢,횻늻맽폫막욱쫐뎡쿠뇈,쯼닉좡뗄랽쪽늻춬뛸틑ꆣ틲듋,뷶뷶듓탅쾢늻뛔돆뷇뛈뮹늻ퟣ틔퇐뺿쟥돾솽쫐뎡횮볤뗄쿠뮥ퟷ폃맘쾵ꆣ내헕놾컄뗄쮼슷,솽쫐뎡뗄맘쾵폐햽싔짏뗄틢틥,벴떱쫂죋퓚닺욷쫐뎡믲뷰죚쫐뎡짏뗄햽싔탐뚯믡펰쿬떽쇭튻쫐뎡짏떱쫂죋뗄햽싔탐뚯ꆣ헢훖햽싔뮥뚯맘쾵늻뷶믡펰쿬떽솽쫐뎡뗄훆뛈뻹뫢,뛸쟒뮹믡펰쿬떽뫪맛뗄뺭볃퓶뎤ꆣ뛾ꆢ늻좷뚨탔ꆢ폐쿞샭탔폫솽쫐뎡볤뗄쿠뮥ퟷ폃퓚햽싔릫쮾뷰죚뗄럖컶떱훐,튻냣볙뚨웳튵퓚쫐뎡짏쏦쇙탅쾢늻췪좫뫍늻뛔돆,평폚듦퓚쮽죋탅쾢,웳튵볒뻍뿉쓜쪵쪩뗀뗂럧쿕뫍쓦쿲톡퓱탐뚯ꆣ떫쫇,탅쾢늻췪좫뫍늻뛔돆늢늻쓜릹돉웳튵탐캪늨뚯뗄샭평ꆣ램쎷뛻(Farmer,1995)횸돶,늻췪좫탅쾢뗄쮼뾼랽쪽놾훊짏틢캶ퟅ췪좫탅쾢쫇뿉틔듯떽뗄,퓚뷰죚쫐뎡짏,헢뇭쿖캪춶헟믲웳튵볒뿉쓜춨맽럧쿕움볛돌탲살에뛏럧쿕ꆣ좻뛸,럧쿕뫍늻좷뚨탔횮볤폐놾훊뗄쟸뇰,럧쿕쫇뿉닢뗄ꆢ뿉놣쿕뗄,뛸늻좷뚨탔쫇늻뿉닢뗄뫍늻뿉놣뗄ꆣ럧쿕뿉쏨쫶돉헢퇹뗄쟩탎:웤훐룅싊럖늼쫇뿉횪뗄ꆢ쫽솿짏뿉좷뚨뗄ꆢ럢뇕뗄뫍췪놸뗄,뛸늻좷뚨탔퓲쎻폐틑횪뗄룅싊럖늼,쫇늻뿉좷뚨뗄,틗쫜ꆰ잱퓚틢췢ꆱ뫍탂쫂컯뗄펰쿬(쮹억뗇뗈,1998)ꆣ틽죫늻좷뚨탔뫳,뷨뿮죋뗄탐캪늻퓙쿱탅쾢늻뛔돆쳵볾쓇퇹뻟폐쒳훖뿘훆솦ꆣ죧맻볙뚨뷨뿮죋폐맘폚맽좥믮뚯ꆢ돉놾벰쫐뎡뗄췪좫탅쾢,틲뛸쓜맀쯣돶ퟔ벺뗄럧쿕,쓇쎴컒쏇퓚퇐뺿뷰죚쫐뎡쪱,횻탨맘힢듻뿮죋믲춶헟뗄럧쿕럖늼,벴뷨뿮죋뗄럧쿕쫇늻훘튪뗄ꆣ뷰죚뫏풼뗄ퟷ폃뻍쫇죧뫎춨맽잡떱뗄좨샻낲업살쪹춶헟룼폐킧뗘뿘훆웳튵볒,떫떱뷨뿮죋뫍춶헟뚼쏦쇙늻좷뚨뗄췢늿뮷뺳쪱,뷨뿮죋뗄럧쿕뇤뗃춬퇹훘튪ꆣ퓚늻좷뚨탔쿂뷨뿮죋폫춶헟캧죆뷰죚붻틗뗄늩?맽돌,뿉쓜닉좡죽뇟훎샭,튲뿉쓜닉좡쮫뇟훎샭,늢쟒솽훖훎샭믺훆뚼쿔쪾뷨뿮죋탐캪뫍춶헟탐캪뗄춬뗈훘튪탔ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵,뷰죚쫐뎡뗄볛룱뫍쫽솿놾살뻍쫇평뷨뿮죋뫍춶헟캪ힷ쟳룷ퟔ뗄샻틦ퟮ듳뮯쿠뮥늩?뗄뷡맻,늩?뗄뮷뺳뻍쫇늻좷뚨탔뫍탅쾢돉놾뗄풼쫸ꆣ늻좷뚨탔틢캶ퟅ떱쫂죋잱퓚횪쪶뗄랶캧쫇늻뿉풤횪뗄,뮻룶뷇뛈뾴,튲뻍쫇컷쏉뗄ꆰ폐쿞샭탔ꆱ룅쓮ꆣ폐쿞샭탔뗄헦쪵몬틥쫇죋뛔늻좷뚨쫀뷧뗄컞횪ꆣ샽죧,맾튮뿋쯹횸돶뗄,짧믡훐횪쪶횻믡ퟷ캪룶죋뗄횪쪶뛸듦퓚,룶죋펵폐뗄횪쪶쿠뛔폚짧믡살쮵쫇럖즢뗄ꆢ늻췪좫뗄ꆢ폐쪱짵훁쫇뇋듋돥춻뗄,쫐뎡ퟷ캪튻훖킭뗷럖즢뮯횪쪶뗄믺훆쓜릻쪵쿖닎폫죋횮볤뗄럖릤뫍튵뮯,듓뛸룄뷸풴엤훃뗄킧싊ꆣ퓚뷰죚쫐뎡뫍닺욷쫐뎡뗄맘쾵짏,틢캶ퟅ떱쫂죋룷ퟔ탅쾢벯뗄늻춬떼훂쇋쿠펦뗄룷뻟쳘즫뗄햽싔탐뚯,헢킩햽싔탐뚯뻟폐틧돶킧펦,뇋듋쿠뮥펰쿬,탎돉쫐뎡볤뗄쿠뮥ퟷ폃맘쾵ꆣ평듋뿉볻,솽쫐뎡볤릦쓜짏뗄쳦듺뫍햽싔짏뗄뮥늹뚼뿉틔맩뷡떽떱쫂죋횪쪶뗄닮틬탔틽랢뗄럖릤헢튻룹놾풭틲ꆣ헽틲캪죧듋,컒쏇닅튻퓙잿뗷,떱쫂죋탅쾢뗄늻뛔돆럖늼늢늻쫇쫐뎡볤쿠뮥ퟷ폃뗄캩튻풭틲ꆣZechner(1996)튲쯆뫵힢틢떽헢튻뗣,퓚늻볙뚨웳튵볒쮽죋탅쾢뗄쳵볾쿂,쯻횤쏷웚믵쫐뎡뗄뾪럅펰쿬쇋웳튵뗄닺욷쫐뎡햽싔ꆣ컒쏇틔Zechner뗄쒣탍랽램캪믹뒡,릹퓬튻룶볲떥뗄쒣탍살쮵쏷늻좷뚨탔쿂솽쫐뎡볤믹폚횪쪶럖릤뗄햽싔뮥뚯뗄틢틥ꆣ볙짨폐튻룶탐튵,냼삨n룶볛룱뷓쫜웳튵,쎿룶웳튵폐튻짺닺벼쫵뿉짺닺떥캻춬훊닺욷,쓦탨쟳몯쫽죧쿂:P=a-bQ(1)짺닺돉놾C쫇쯦믺뗄,볙뚨늻뾼싇샍뚯쫐뎡뗄늨뚯,쓇쎴짺닺돉놾뗄늨뚯횻폫뷰죚쫐뎡폐맘ꋙꆣ웳튵뿉틔퓚튻뚨뗄탅쾢쳵볾쿂,죏쪶떽짺닺돉놾뗄쪵볊횵,볙뚨쪵볊횵횻폐솽룶:l(뗍횵ힴꋙZechner(1996)캴뷢쫍짺닺돉놾늨뚯뗄살풴,뛸컒쏇잿뗷헢튻늨뚯평뷰죚쫐뎡뻶뚨ꆣ23
첬)벰h(룟횵ힴ첬)ꆣ틲듋,뛔짺닺돉놾뗄죏쪶튲뻍쫇뛔늻좷뚨뗄췢늿뮷뺳뗄죏쪶ꆣ웳튵퓚죏쪶떽짺닺돉놾뗄쳘헷뫳닅짺닺ꆣ폐솽훖춾뺶뿉틔죏쪶짺닺돉놾,튻쫇횧뢶k떥캻탅쾢돉놾;뛾쫇뾪럅뷰죚쫐뎡,춨맽맛달뷰죚쫐뎡짏횤좯볛룱뗄늨뚯췆닢짺닺돉놾ힴ첬쳘헷,볙뚨헢튻췆닢쫇늻뮨잮뗄ꆣ캪볲뮯럖컶,뷸튻늽볙뚨떱쫂죋럧쿕훐탔,쟒폐e뇈샽웳튵쫴폚뗍돉놾벼쫵,(1-e)뇈샽뗄웳튵쫴폚룟돉놾벼쫵ꆣ쟩뿶튻:쎻폐뷰죚쫐뎡쪱ꆣ퓚쎻폐뷰죚쫐뎡뗄쟩뿶쿂,웳튵횻폐ퟔ벺뮨럑튻뚨뗄탅쾢돉놾닅쓜쇋뷢짺닺돉놾샠탍,좻뫳닅뿉뻶뚨짺닺믲늻짺닺ꆣ뫜쏷쿔,떱웳튵랢쿖ퟔ벺뗄짺닺벼쫵쫴폚룟돉놾샠탍쪱,닅내룟돉놾랽쪽짺닺,랴횮,퓲내뗍돉놾랽쪽짺닺,벴탅쾢뗄볛횵쳥쿖퓚웳튵횻퓚튻훖ힴ첬쿂짺닺닅쫇ퟮ폅뗄ꆣ죧맻쯹폐뗄웳튵뚼풸틢횧뢶탅쾢돉놾,쓇쎴뻹뫢쪱폐:P(l)-k-l=0ꆡP(h)-k-h=0벴:Q(l)=(a-k-l)/bQ(h)=(a-k-h)/b탐튵ퟜ닺솿:Q1=emQ(l)+(1-e)mQ(b)(2)=[ma-mk-(1-e)mh-eml]/b쟩뿶뛾:폐뷰죚쫐뎡쪱ꆣ떱뷰죚쫐뎡듦퓚쪱,춶헟쯑톰탅쾢뗄믮뚯ퟛ뫏랴펳퓚횤좯볛룱뗄늨뚯짏,횻튪맛달횤좯볛룱,뻍뿉틔췆뛏짺닺돉놾뗄샠탍ꆣ폫쟩뿶튻샠쯆,떱짺닺돉놾샠탍놻엻슶쪱,웳튵짺닺횱떽쫕틦뺻쿖횵캪쇣,벴P(l)-l=0,P(h)-h=0,뷢돶룷ퟔ뗄닺돶:Qa-la-h(l)=;ꆡQ(h)=bb쓇쎴탐튵ퟜ닺돶:Qma-eml-(1-e)mh2=emQ(l)+(1-e)Q(h)=(3)b(3)쪽복(2)쪽뗃:Q2-Qmk1=(4)b랽돌(4)랴펳쇋횪쪶럖릤뗄뺻쪣폠,쯼쿠떱폚뷚풼쇋웳튵뗄탅쾢돉놾ꆣ쟩뿶튻쪵볊짏듺뇭탂뾭뛷쮹훷틥헟뗄솢뎡,룸뚨튻탅쾢돉놾,웳튵ퟜ쓜틔룅싊뗄탎쪽볆쯣돶살뗄뇤뮯쟷쫆,듓뛸냑늻좷뚨탔컊쳢뮯캪좷뚨탔컊쳢ꆣ헢훖뒦샭랽쪽잱퓚뗄쮼슷뻍쫇닎폫죋뗄뎬샭탔,벴닎폫죋늢늻듦퓚샭탔풼쫸컊쳢,뷶뷶듦퓚뿍맛뗄탅쾢풼쫸컊쳢,닎폫죋쯹탨튪펦뛔뗄뻍쫇탅쾢돉놾뗄횧돶ꆣ퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,닎폫죋뗄뻶닟뷶뷶틀삵웤탅쾢돉놾뗄돐쫜돌뛈,뛸뫍쫐뎡컞맘ꆣ벴쪹횻듦퓚떥튻뗄쫐뎡,닎폫죋죔좻쓜릻춨맽횧뢶쿠펦뗄탅쾢돉놾살믱뗃뛔ퟔ벺ퟮ폐샻뗄뷡맻,뺡맜헢튻뷡맻캴뇘쫇짧믡ퟮ폅뗄ꆣ뛸쟩뿶뛾쯹쏨쫶뗄쮼슷헽뫃쿠랴ꆣ쟩뿶뛾뇭쏷,죧맻뷶뷶듦퓚떥튻쫐뎡,쫐뎡탅쾢쿔쪾늻릻돤럖,쓇쎴폐쿞샭탔뗄닎폫죋쏦뛔늻좷뚨탔풼쫸뻍컞램헽좷뻶닟,헢샯뫍탅쾢돉놾뗄돐쫜돌뛈컞맘ꆣ죧맾쳘(Hart,1995)뗈죋쯹횸돶뗄,룸뚨닎폫죋폐쿞샭탔,맘폚닎폫죋뗄샠탍믲헟벼쫵샠탍뗈쳘헷뇤솿쫇늻뿉횤쪵뗄,헢뻍뻶뚨쇋뷰죚쫐뎡짏뗄붻틗쫇늻췪놸뗄ꆣ튻훖냬램쫇춨맽잡떱뗄닺좨낲업살뿋럾헢훖늻췪놸탔,뛸쟩뿶뛾뷸튻늽쮵쏷,죧맻늻닉좡닺좨낲업뗄쮼슷,뮹듦퓚뗚뛾훖냬램,뻍쫇쫐뎡짮뮯ꆣ짮뮯쫐뎡튲뻍쫇볓뫱쫐뎡,벴랢햹뛠닣듎쫐뎡ꆣ헢퇹,벴쪹룸뚨웳튵컞램춨맽탅쾢돉놾뗄횧돶살뿋럾늻좷뚨탔,떫퓚뛠훘뷰죚쫐뎡듦퓚뗄쳵볾쿂,춶헟폫웳튵뗄뷰죚붻틗뚼뿍맛짏엻슶쇋웳튵쯹탨튪뗄탅쾢ꆣ쿔좻,듓럖릤뗄뷇뛈뾴,춨맽쫐뎡짮뮯놾짭살쿔쪾탅쾢,듓뛸쏖늹닎폫죋뗄24
샭탔쿞훆,랴뛸쫇튻훖킧싊뷏룟뗄랽램ꆣ죽ꆢ닺욷쫐뎡폫뷰죚쫐뎡볤릦쓜짏뗄쳦듺폫햽싔짏뗄뮥늹잰쏦럖컶뿉틔뾴돶,훁짙폐솽룶룹놾풭틲틽랢쇋닺욷쫐뎡폫뷰죚쫐뎡뗄쿠뮥ퟷ폃ꆣ튻쫇탅쾢늻뛔돆ꆣ튻냣살쮵,평폚웳튵볒퓚늻춬뗄닺욷쫐뎡뷡릹쿂뻟폐늻춬돌뛈뗄쮽죋탅쾢,쿠펦뗄뻍튪쟳늻춬뗄웵풼좥엻슶쯼,떱웳튵볒뛔췢죚뗄쪱뫲,캪볠뿘쮽죋탅쾢틽훂뗄쓦쿲톡퓱뫍뗀뗂럧쿕탐캪,톡퓱잡떱뗄좨샻낲업뻍럇뎣훘튪,헢틢캶ퟅ늻춬뗄닺욷쫐뎡뷡릹튪쟳폐쿠펦뗄뷰죚쫐뎡뷡릹;랴맽살뾴,뷰죚뫏풼좷뚨쇋튻뚨뗄좨샻낲업,쯼늻뷶폫춶헟뗄좨틦폐맘,뛸쟒뛔웳튵볒ퟔ짭뗄좨틦닺짺펰쿬,떱웳튵볒뒦폚늻춬뗄닺욷쫐뎡뷡릹훐쪱,늻춬뗄뷰죚뫏풼뿉쓜벤샸웳튵볒닉좡늻춬뗄닺돶햽싔,뷰죚쫐뎡뷡릹폖랴맽살펰쿬닺욷쫐뎡뗄뻹뫢ꆣ뛾쫇늻좷뚨탔ꆣ평폚죋쏇뛔폚듯떽쒿뇪뗄춾뺶듦퓚뇘좻뗄컞횪,뻍늻뿉쓜춨맽횧뢶튻뇊뿉맛뗄탅쾢돉놾살믱뗃튻룶좷뚨뗄캴살ꆣ내헕맾튮뿋뗄쮼쿫,떱쫂죋룹뻝ퟔ벺뗄횪쪶벯내샻틦ퟮ듳뮯풭퓲탐쫂,뿍맛짏춨맽붻틗쪵쿖횪쪶뗄럖릤,랴펳떽쫐뎡짏벴뇭쿖캪늻춬횪쪶벯횮볤뗄붻쇷,뻟쳥뮯캪쫐뎡횮볤뗄쿠뮥ퟷ폃,듋쪱웳튵볒퓚닺욷쫐뎡짏틲폐쿞탔샭탔뛸닺짺뗄뻶닟쪧컳뿉틔평춶헟퓚뷰죚쫐뎡짏뗄햽싔탐뚯ퟶ튻쏖늹,춶헟뫍웳튵볒뒦폚횪쪶럖릤뗄ힴ첬,쿠뮥뗄햽싔탐뚯뻍쿠떱폚횪쪶벯뗄붻쇷,듓뛸쪵쿖쇋햽싔짏뗄뮥늹ꆣ11닺욷쫐뎡폫뷰죚쫐뎡퓚릦쓜짏뻟폐튻뚨뗄쳦듺탔죎뫎쫐뎡뚼쫇튻훖훆뛈,뻟쳥뿉뇭쫶캪튻훖훎샭붻틗뗄웵풼췸,늻춬뗄붻틗뛔쿳,붻틗뮷뺳벰떱쫂죋뗄욫뫃뗈,뻶뚨쇋붻틗샠탍뗄쿠펦쳘헷,헢틀듎폖튪쟳늻춬뗄훎샭믺훆ꆣ닺욷쫐뎡폫뷰죚쫐뎡튻퇹,춬퇹쫇맘쾵웵풼췸,쯼쓜릻듌벤떱쫂죋틔늻춬뗄랽쪽짺닺폐폃탅쾢ꆣ듓헢룶뷇뛈뾴,솽헟뗄릦쓜웤쪵쫇폐릲춬뗄튻쏦ꆣ샽죧,떱닺욷쫐뎡뇭쿖캪슢뛏뷡릹쪱,슢뛏헟뿉틔춨맽슢뛏늿럖탅쾢,살쪵쿖뛔볛룱뗄뿘훆ꆣ헢튻뗣폈웤쳥쿖퓚웳튵벼쫵뒴탂춶뫍튻쾵쇐뗄짌튵쏘쏜놣뮤짏ꆣ듋쪱,쫐뎡볛룱늨뚯늻쓜랴펳웳튵뗄헦쪵쳘헷,틲캪,튻늿럖탅쾢쮽죋뮯쇋ꆣ쮽죋탅쾢ퟮ잿뗄쫇웳튵돵뒴쪱웚,웳튵룕룕퓚쫐뎡짏쇁쿠,탭뛠춶헟뛔웤늻쇋뷢,짵훁헒늻ퟅ쿠펦뗄닎헕쾵ꆣ쮽죋탅쾢ퟮ죵뗄쫇뺺헹탔쫐뎡,훚뛠뗄볛룱뷓쫜헟쿠뮥뺺헹,춨맽볛룱늨뚯랴펳ퟔ짭뗄쪵볊쳘헷ꆣ뫜쏷쿔,닺욷쫐뎡폐쪱쓜뷏뫃뗘쿔쪾탅쾢,쪹뺺헹돉캪뿍맛듦퓚뗄웳튵볠뿘믺훆;폐쪱좴늻쓜뷏뫃뗘쿔쪾탅쾢,닺욷쫐뎡뺺헹튲뻍늻쓜폐킧뗘볠뿘웳튵탐캪ꆣ뛔폚잰헟,튪쟳뷰죚쫐뎡탅쾢쿔쪾뗄뫴짹뻍죵튻뗣,뛸뛔폚뫳헟,뷰죚쫐뎡뗄탅쾢쿔쪾뗄튪쟳뻍잿쇒킩ꆣBerger뫍Udell(1998)뗄쫽뻝쿔쪾,퓚웳튵돵뒴웚,뛔뷰죚쫐뎡뗄틀삵뛈뷏룟,뛸떽웳튵돉쫬쪱,뛔뷰죚쫐뎡뗄틀삵붵뗍쇋ꆣ샽죧,웳튵뒴냬2쓪쓚,풭쪼막뚫뗄막럝캪19161%,떱웳튵뒦폚돉뎤웚(3ꆪ4쯪)쪱,룃막럝뇈샽캪17137%,떫떱웳튵뷸죫훐쓪(5ꆪ24쯪)쪱,룃뇈샽짏짽떽31194%,떽샏쓪(25쯪틔짏)쪱,룃뇈샽캪35142%ꆣ헢킩쫽뻝랴펦돶솽헟릦쓜짏뗄쳦듺쫇뫜쏷쿔뗄,웳튵돵뒴웚뫍돉뎤웚쓚,쮽죋탅쾢퇏훘,닺욷쫐뎡뗄탅쾢뫍볠뿘릦쓜뇘탫놻뷰죚쫐뎡쳦듺,헢뇭쿖캪웳튵뛔뷰죚쫐뎡뗄틀삵;랴횮,떱웳튵늽죫훐쓪,뇤뗃돉쫬,쮽죋탅쾢튲뻍훰늽복죵,닺욷쫐뎡ퟔ짭뗄릦쓜잿듳쇋,튲뻍복짙쇋뛔뷰죚쫐뎡뗄탨튪ꆣ쎿튻쪱웚뚼듦퓚솽쫐뎡볤릦쓜쳦듺뗄뻹뫢ꆣ21닺욷쫐뎡폫뷰죚쫐뎡뗄햽싔뮥늹떱뾼싇떱쫂죋쏦뛔늻좷뚨뗄췢늿뮷뺳쪱,컒쏇틑뺭횤쏷,춶헟퓚뷰죚쫐뎡짏쯑톰탅쾢뗄햽싔탐뚯뿍맛짏닺짺쇋틧돶킧펦,듓뛸펰쿬쇋닺욷쫐뎡짏웳튵뗄뻶닟,늢쟒헢훖햽싔짏뗄뮥늹튲돶쿖쇋,틲캪폐뷰죚쫐뎡쪱탐튵닺돶쏷쿔쳡룟ꆣ떱뫶싔늻좷뚨탔,뾼싇떱쫂죋뗄쮽죋탅쾢쯹틽웰뗄햽싔뮥뚯,헢폫햽싔릫쮾뷰죚쒣탍쫇튻훂뗄ꆣ컒쏇짨쿫튻룶솽좨럖샫뗄뮷뺳,듋쪱웳튵믡쏦쇙뷏룟뗄듺샭돉놾풼쫸ꆣ퓚슢뛏웳튵뗄쫐뎡쫆솦펰쿬쿂,닺욷쫐뎡뺺헹뛔웳튵뗄풼쫸솦듳듳죵뮯쇋,틲뛸막뚫컞램틀뾿닺욷쫐뎡놾짭살뷢뻶듺샭컊쳢ꆣ떱뷰죚쫐뎡듦퓚쪱,막뚫퓚놾쫐뎡짏뗄햽싔탐뚯뻍뿉틔닺짺췢늿탔,듓뛸쏖늹쇋닺욷쫐뎡뗄늻ퟣꆣ막뚫뿉틔퓚놾쫐뎡짏ꆰ폃뷅춶욱ꆱ,떼훂막욱볛룱25
쿂뗸,헢튻쟷쫆벴쿔쪾돶막뚫뛔웳튵짺닺뺭펪늻싺,뷡맻슢뛏웳튵뗄뗍킧싊뻍돉캪릫뾪뗄탅쾢,헢뷸튻늽ퟨ낭웤쯻춶헟캪웳튵힢;춬쪱,막볛쿂뗸쪱,튻킩춶헟뿉쓜죏캪ퟔ벺폐쓜솦훘ퟩ웳튵,폚쫇쪵쪩뷓맜햽싔,떱막욱쫕릺떽튻뚨럝뛮뫳,뇣ꆰ폃쫖춶욱ꆱ,뛔웳튵쇬떼닣뷸탐룄ퟩ,헢튲뿉쓜뷢뻶웳튵뗄듺샭컊쳢ꆣ웳튵뺭샭죋풱캪뇜쏢ퟔ벺놻뷓맜,튻랽쏦쪵쪩랴뷓맜햽싔,쇭튻랽쏦퓲ퟔ컒풼쫸,늢얬솦쳡룟웳튵벨킧,웳튵퓚닺욷쫐뎡짏뗄헢튻햽싔뗷헻랴삡떽뷰죚쫐뎡짏,떼훂막볛짏헇,춶헟폐뚯솦삩듳춶ꆣퟮ훕,떱쫂죋퓚닺욷쫐뎡뫍뷰죚쫐뎡뗄햽싔탐뚯닺짺쇋뮥늹탔,늢죵뮯쇋솽좨럖샫쿂슢뛏웳튵퇏훘뗄듺샭컊쳢ꆣ쇭튻훖뮥늹탔돶쿖퓚탅쾢쿔쪾짏ꆣ룱쇖컖뗂뫍볓췟억캬웦(Greenwood,Javanovic,1990)ꆢ뷰뫍삳컄(King,Levine,1993)횤쏷,뷰죚훐뷩뗄튵뮯쓜솦벰닺ퟩ뫏뛠퇹뮯춶햽싔,폐훺폚쿔쪾춶쿮쒿펯샻ힴ뿶뗄룅싊럖늼,웳튵볒춨맽맛달헢킩탅쾢,뻍뿉틔에뛏돶춶뗄믺믡;뷰뫍삳컄튲뾴떽춶헟퓚막욱쫐뎡짏뗄춶믮뚯춬퇹뻟폐헢훖탅쾢틽떼ퟷ폃ꆣ춶헟뗄춶믮뚯ퟜ냩쯦탅쾢뗄쫕벯,틲듋,쯻쏇뗄햽싔탐뚯쪵볊짏랴펳돶룷ퟔ뗄탅쾢벯,헢킩탅쾢믣ퟜ떽튻웰,뻍춨맽뷰죚쫐뎡뗄볛룱폫럇볛룱믺훆쿔쪾돶살,평폚쿔쪾돶뗄탅쾢뚼쫇릫릲욷탔훊뗄,웳튵뿉틔쏢럑맛달떽,헢틢캶ퟅ춶헟뗄춶햽싔뿍맛짏룄뷸쇋웳튵볒뻶닟뗄탅쾢벯,쳡룟쇋웳튵볒뗄뻶닟훊솿ꆣ뛸웳튵볒뻶닟훊솿뗄쳡룟폖듙뷸쇋벼쫵뒴탂뫍뺭볃퓶뎤,헢랴맽살폖쳡룟쇋춶헟뗄춶뚯솦ꆣ뿉볻,뷰죚쫐뎡뗄탅쾢쿔쪾늻뷶쓜틽떼풴엤훃,춶헟뗄춶햽싔폫웳튵볒퓚닺욷쫐뎡짏뗄뒴탂뫍춶햽싔쫇뮥늹뗄,솽헟릲춬듙뷸쇋뺭볃퓶뎤ꆣퟜ뗄살뾴,컞싛쫇듓탅쾢늻뛔돆돶랢,뮹쫇듓폐쿞샭탔믲늻좷뚨탔돶랢,닺욷쫐뎡뫍뷰죚쫐뎡뿍맛짏뚼듦퓚튻훖햽싔뮥늹맘쾵,헢튻뮥늹탔볓쯙쇋뺭볃퓶뎤ꆣ쫐뎡횮볤뗄릦쓜쳦듺뫍햽싔뮥늹쪵볊짏쫇튻룶컊쳢뗄솽룶랽쏦ꆣ죧맻뷶뷶듓릦쓜쳦듺뷇뛈뾴,쯆뫵뛠닣듎쫐뎡쫇튻훖풴엤훃뗄샋럑,틲캪,떥튻쫐뎡틑뺭뻟놸쇋쿠펦뗄쫐뎡릦쓜,웤쯻쫐뎡뻍쿔뗃폐뗣훘뢴붨짨ꆣ떫쫂쪵늢럇죧듋ꆣ뛔튻쿮볲떥붻틗살쮵,붻틗맘쾵뗄쳘헷뇈뷏죝틗뚨틥,쯹탨탅쾢뿉맛달쟒뿉횤쪵,튲뻍뿉틔춨맽췪놸뫏춬맦뚨쿂살ꆣ듋쪱,늢늻탨튪뛠닣듎쫐뎡,떥튻쫐뎡ퟣ틔쳡릩좫늿뗄릦쓜ꆣ떫쫇,쿖쪵떱훐컞싛쪵컯닺욷뮹쫇뷰죚닺욷뚼쫇뇈뷏뢴퓓뗄,닎폫죋쫜떽샭탔풼쫸,뮷뺳튲쫇늻좷뚨뗄,쯹폐헢킩뚼믡떼훂붻틗맘쾵뗄쳘헷틬뎣뢴퓓,헢킩뢴퓓쳘헷퓚붻틗맽돌훐뫜쓑횤쪵,떥튻쫐뎡룹놾컞램폐킧쪵쪩쿠펦뗄릦쓜ꆣ샽죧,웳튵닺욷뗄붻틗죧맻뷶뷶쏦쇙닺욷쫐뎡뗄풼쫸,늻듦퓚튪쯘쫐뎡,쓇쎴돉놾탅쾢ퟷ캪늻뿉횤쪵뗄튻늿럖뻍믡릹돉붻틗뗄헏낭,쪹뗃붻틗컞램쪵쿖,닺욷쫐뎡놾짭튲뻍컞램탎돉훈탲ꆣ횻폐떱듦퓚튻룶쿠펦뗄튪쯘쫐뎡,살쿔쪾돉놾탅쾢뗄쪱뫲,닺욷쫐뎡놾짭닅폐웤듦퓚뗄틢틥ꆣ듓헢룶뷇뛈붲,닺욷쫐뎡뫍뷰죚쫐뎡횮볤뗄뮥늹탔닅쫇룼캪믹놾뗄훆뛈뷡릹,솽헟횮볤릦쓜짏뗄쳦듺쫇퓚뮥늹뗄쳵볾쿂닅뗃틔랢짺뗄ꆣ쯄ꆢ솽뗣췆싛벰헾닟몬틥(1)쫐뎡ퟷ캪튻훖벤샸뫍풼쫸훆뛈,퓚릦쓜짏뻟폐릲탔ꆣ샽죧,탅쾢쿔쪾,쪵쪩웳튵볠뿘뗈,퓚헢킩릦쓜퓋탐뗄놳뫳,폖쫇떱쫂죋뗄햽싔탐뚯ꆣ평폚늻췪좫탅쾢믲폐쿞샭탔뗄풼쫸,떱쫂죋횻쓜ퟶ돶폐풼쫸뗄뻶닟ꆣ쳘뇰쫇,퓚튻킩뮷뺳쿂,떱쫂죋샻폃탅쾢뗄쮽죋닺욷쳘헷랢햹돶튻뚨뗄쫐뎡쫆솦,뷸뛸쓜퓚쒳훖돌뛈짏뿘훆쫐뎡ꆣ죧맻쒳튻쫐뎡뗄볛룱믺훆쪧쇩,늢쟒컞램폐킧뗘볠뿘웳튵,쓇쎴쇭튻쫐뎡뻍뿉틔쳦듺룃쫐뎡샠쯆뗄릦쓜ꆣ샽죧,웳튵뒴튵돵웚닺욷쫐뎡릦쓜죵,뷰죚쫐뎡뻍돐떣쇋훷튪뗄볠뿘뫍탅쾢쿔쪾릦쓜,뛸웳튵돉쫬뫳,닺욷쫐뎡릦쓜퓶볓,뷰죚쫐뎡뗄훘튪탔뻍쿂붵,솽헟듦퓚듋쿻뇋뎤맘쾵,벴릦쓜짏쫇쳦듺뗄ꆣ폫듋춬쪱,떱쫂죋퓚쒳튻쫐뎡짏뗄햽싔탐뚯뿍맛짏뿉쓜닺짺틧돶킧펦,헢튻킧펦늨벰떽쇭튻쫐뎡짏,짧믡룄뷸쇭튻킩떱쫂죋뗄탅쾢벯뫍햽싔탐뚯,평듋탎돉솽쫐뎡뗄햽싔뮥늹맘쾵ꆣ샽죧,춶헟퓚뷰죚쫐뎡짏쯑톰탅쾢뗄햽싔탐뚯뿍맛짏탎돉쇋퓌몬춶믺믡뗄탅쾢,닺욷쫐뎡짏웳튵볒춨맽맛달헢킩탅쾢,뻍뿉틔쳡룟벼쫵뒴탂훊솿;랴맽살,웳튵볒벼쫵26
뒴탂훊솿풽룟,욵싊풽듳,닺욷쫐뎡쟷쿲랱죙,헢폖믡듌벤뷰죚쫐뎡짏춶헟쯑톰탅쾢뗄뚯솦ꆣ벴솽룶쫐뎡짏떱쫂죋뗄햽싔탐뚯쫇뮥늹뗄ꆣ(2)죎뫎쫐뎡뚼쫇ퟷ캪튻훖벤샸뫍풼쫸훆뛈뛸듦퓚,붻틗뛔쿳ꆢ붻틗뮷뺳벰붻틗떱쫂죋뗄쳘헷뻶뚨쇋늻춬쫐뎡짏뛔붻틗뗄훎샭믺훆늻춬ꆣ짺닺맽돌냑늻춬뗄붻틗믮뚯솪쾵퓚튻웰,튪쯘쫐뎡뫍닺욷쫐뎡춨맽웳튵캪얦듸쿠뮥랢짺ퟷ폃ꆣ평폚탅쾢늻췪좫뫍폐쿞샭탔,틔벰탅쾢뗄쮽죋닺욷쯹떼훂뗄쫐뎡쫆솦,뿉쓜믡퓬돉쒳튻쫐뎡훆뛈뗄쪧쇩ꆣ떫쫇,쫐뎡횮볤뗄쿠뮥솪쾵쪹튻룶쫐뎡뗄쪧쇩뿉틔놻쇭튻쫐뎡살쏖늹,틲캪춬퇹폐벤샸뫍풼쫸릦쓜,솽쫐뎡퓚쪵볊퓋탐맽돌훐뻍뿉쓜쿠믺뗘쳦듺;폫듋춬쪱,떱쫂죋퓚쎿튻룶쫐뎡짏듓쫂붻틗믮뚯,웤쯑톰탅쾢뗄햽싔탐뚯뿍맛짏닺짺쇋틧돶킧펦,늨벰떽웤쯻쫐뎡,뻍뿉틔룄뇤웤쯻쫐뎡떱쫂죋뗄햽싔탐뚯,뷸뛸룄뇤웤쯻쫐뎡뗄릦쓜쪵쪩킧맻ꆣ쫐뎡횮볤뗄쳦듺뫍뮥늹맘쾵뿉틔떼훂튻쫐뎡뗄쪧쇩놻쇭튻쫐뎡살훎쇆,릦쓜짏뗄쳦듺벰햽싔짏뗄뮥늹폐훺폚킭뗷쒳룶쫐뎡짏틲늻뛔돆탅쾢믲붻틗돉놾뛸틽훂뗄킭뗷쪧쇩컊쳢ꆣ헢틢캶ퟅ잿뗷폃헾뢮살킭뗷쪧쇩뗄맛뗣뿉쓜폐늻ퟣ횮뒦ꆣ냑쫐뎡쪧쇩ퟷ캪헾뢮룉풤믹뒡뗄톧헟횻힢틢떥룶쫐뎡짏돶쿖뗄튻킩늻킭뗷쿖쿳,좱랦좫뻖뗄ꆢ뚯첬뗄퇛맢,떱쯻쏇튻뾴떽떥룶쫐뎡짏쎰돶퓫틴,뇣뫴폵헾뢮룉풤,쫫늻횪벴쪹헾뢮늻뷩죫,쇭튻룶쫐뎡짏뿉쳦듺뗄릦쓜뫍뿉뮥늹뗄햽싔탐뚯튲뿉틔뷢뻶떥룶쫐뎡뗄쪧쇩컊쳢ꆣ쫐뎡횮볤뗄릦쓜짏뗄쳦듺뫍햽싔짏뗄뮥늹뛔뺭볃퓶뎤폐훘튪펰쿬ꆣ웹뷱뗄뷰죚랢햹샭싛튻냣횻훘쫓떥룶쫐뎡뗄룷훖릦쓜뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄ퟷ폃,뫶싔쇋웤쯻쫐뎡뗄맘쾵쳘헷믡펰쿬떽헢튻뷡싛ꆣ컒쏇뗄퇐뺿뇭쏷,평폚솽쫐뎡횮볤듦퓚릦쓜짏뗄쳦듺맘쾵,튻떩쒳튻쫐뎡뗄쪧쇩ퟣ틔ퟨ낭뺭볃퓶뎤,쇭튻쫐뎡뛔웤뷸탐릦쓜짏뗄쳦듺퓲뿉틔쿻돽헢훖ퟨ낭ꆣ틲듋,떥룶쫐뎡뗄늻랢듯뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄킧펦쫇늻쏷좷뗄ꆣ헢튻뗣뛔랢햹훐맺볒폈웤폐훘튪틢틥ꆣ샽죧,튻킩맺볒뇭쿖돶뷰죚틖훆폫뺭볃퓶뎤춬늽뗄쿖쿳,쮹뗙룱샻듄뗈뻝듋냑헢훖틖훆돆캪ꆰ뷰죚풼쫸ꆱꆣ떫룹뻝컒쏇뗄샭싛,헢튻뺭볃퓶뎤킧펦늻쫇살ퟔ뷰죚쫐뎡틖훆,뛸쫇살ퟔ닺욷쫐뎡뺺헹ꆣ틲캪,헢킩맺볒뗄웳튵듳뛠닎폫맺볊쫐뎡뺺헹,맊쫜떽뗄닺욷쫐뎡벤샸뫍풼쫸쫇뫜잿뗄,헢틢캶ퟅ닺욷쫐뎡쪵볊짏쳦듺쇋뷰죚쫐뎡뗄릦쓜,듓뛸좷놣쇋뺭볃퓶뎤ꆣ뻝듋췆뛏,튻떩닺욷쫐뎡뇤뮯,헢킩맺볒붫쏦쇙뺭볃쮥췋ꆣ뫳살뗄뚫퇇캣믺잡잡횤쏷쇋튻뗣ꆣ쯦ퟅ맺볊쫐뎡뗄돥믷,뚫퇇맺볒뗄웳튵뗃늻떽뷰죚쫐뎡뗄횧돖,뷡맻닺욷쫐뎡냑헢킩맺볒뷰죚틖훆뗄뇗늡뫁늻쇴쟩뗘엻슶돶살ꆣ컒쏇뗄퇐뺿뮹췆닢,솽쫐뎡햽싔짏뗄뮥늹맘쾵뿉쓜닺짺돋쫽킧펦,듓뛸탎돉뺭볃퓶뎤훐뗄헽랴삡믺훆,듌벤뺭볃퇘맦쒣놨돪뗝퓶슷뺶랢햹ꆣ헢듓맬맺볒훐뿉틔뗃떽뺭퇩횧돖ꆣ훐맺뺭볃룄룯튻뾪쪼쫇뾪럅닺욷쫐뎡,좻뫳틀듎뾪럅쇋샍뚯쫐뎡폫뷰죚쫐뎡,쯦ퟅ늻춬랢듯돌뛈뗄쫐뎡뗄탎돉뫍랢폽,쿠뮥횮볤닺짺쇋햽싔뮥늹킧펦ꆣ닺욷쫐뎡뺺헹돌뛈뗄쳡룟폐킧뗘쿔쪾쇋웳튵뗄탅쾢,캪웤쯻쫐뎡뗄랢폽쳡릩쇋쳵볾;웤쯻쫐뎡뗄랢햹폖뷸튻늽펲뮯쇋뛔웳튵뗄풼쫸,랴맽살듙뷸쇋닺욷쫐뎡뗄뺺헹ꆣ죽룶쫐뎡쿠뮥횮볤뗄뮥늹탔닺짺쇋쒳훖돋쫽킧펦,듓뛸쓜릻놣횤뺭볃뗄돖탸컈뚨퓶뎤ꆣ룹뻝컒쏇뗄샭싛,훐맺뛾쪮뛠쓪룄룯뗄뺭볃돖탸퓶뎤폫쫐뎡횮볤햽싔짏뗄뮥늹폐맘ꆣ죧맻짏쫶뷡싛뫍췆샭폐웤뫏샭탔,쓇쎴퓚캴살뗄짮뮯룄룯맽돌훐,헾뢮뗄뺭볃헾닟뻍늻쫇춣쇴퓚룄뷸뫪맛뗷뿘뗈훘탄짏,뛸쫇튪쿲뛠닣듎쫐뎡뗄붨짨ꆣ뻍뷰죚쫐뎡살쮵,막욱쫐뎡쫇퓚틸탐튵쎻폐뷸탐쫐뎡뮯룄룯뗄쳵볾쿂랢햹웰살뗄,내헕놾컄뗄쫐뎡뮥뚯샭싛,막욱쫐뎡펦룃쓜릻퓚릦쓜짏웰떽쳦듺탅듻쫐뎡뗄ퟷ폃,쫂쪵튲쫇죧듋,막욱쫐뎡뗄돶쿖퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏듙뚯쇋짏쫐웳튵뗄릫쮾훎샭룄뷸,쏖늹쇋틸탐볠뚽뗄늻ퟣꆣ떫쫇,평폚틸탐튵룄룯뗄훍뫳,떼훂막욱쫐뎡뫍탅듻쫐뎡횮볤뗄뮥늹킧펦쎻폐랢믓돶살,헢늻뷶떼훂쇋막욱쫐뎡짏닺뚨볛뗄얤쟺,뛸쟒튲붵뗍쇋쫐뎡쿔쪾헦쪵탅쾢뗄릦쓜ꆣ듓뷰죚쫐뎡뗄헢훖폐좱쿝뗄뮥뚯뷇뛈뾴,뷰죚쫐뎡훈탲뗄믬싒돽쇋듳볒릫죏뗄튻킩훆뛈틲쯘췢,막욱쫐뎡뫍탅듻쫐뎡늻춬늽퇝뮯쫇튻룶훘튪뗄떫놻죋쏇뫶쫓뗄틲쯘ꆣ늢쟒,뷰죚쫐뎡쓚늿뮥뚯늻ퟣ뗄죵뗣뮹놻뿬쯙뗄닺욷쫐뎡짮뮯퇚룇쇋ꆣ죧잰쯹쫶,훐맺뗄룄룯27
쫗쿈쫇닺욷쫐뎡뮯,헢튻쫐뎡뮯쫇퓚좱랦튪쯘쫐뎡뮯뗄쳵볾쿂뷸탐뗄ꆣ닺욷쫐뎡뗄췪짆뿍맛짏웰떽릦쓜쳦듺뗄ퟷ폃,쏖늹쇋튪쯘쫐뎡룄룯훍뫳뗄죵뗣,듓뛸룄뷸쇋웳튵뗄벤샸ꆣ떫헢튻벤샸룄뷸잡잡놻뫜뛠죋떱ퟷ튪쯘쫐뎡뗷뿘폐킧뗄횤뻝,헢킩죋죏캪,헽쫇튪쯘쫐뎡쫇퓚헾뢮뗷뿘쿂폐탲랢햹뗄,닅떼훂쇋룄룯틔살뗄돖탸뺭볃퓶뎤ꆣ뛸컒쏇뗄쫐뎡뮥뚯샭싛뇭쏷,룄룯틔살뗄뺭볃퓶뎤쫇살ퟔ닺욷쫐뎡뗄뾪럅뫍짮뮯,죧맻쫐뎡뮯뷸돌늻엤쳗,튪쯘쫐뎡뮯뗄훍뫳뇘좻퇏훘ퟨ낭캴살뗄훐맺뺭볃퓶뎤ꆣ틲듋,쫐뎡뮥뚯샭싛붨틩캴살뗄룄룯튪볓뿬튪쯘쫐뎡뮯,솦쟳튪쯘쫐뎡뫍닺욷쫐뎡뗄짮뛈욥엤;퓚뷰죚쫐뎡쓚늿,튪쟳틸탐튵뫍횤좯쫐뎡뗄쫐뎡뮯뷸돌욥엤;붨솢뛠닣듎뗄쫐뎡쳥쾵뗈ꆣꆲ닎뾼컄쿗ꆳꆲ1ꆳ훜튵낲1뺺헹폫뷰죚[D]1훐맺죋쏱듳톧늩쪿톧캻싛컄,19991ꆲ2ꆳ[펢]늼삵뛷ꆤ쮹억뗇,믴뮪뗂ꆤ컄,뇋뗃ꆤ컂쓉웫뿋1쿖듺뫪맛뺭볃톧횸쓏ꆪꆪꆪ룷쮼쿫쇷엉뇈뷏퇐뺿틽싛[M].놱뺩:짌컱펡쫩망,19981ꆲ3ꆳAllen,F1StockMarketsandResourceAllocation[C]1InCapitalMarketsandFinancialIntermediation[M]1C1MayerandX1Vives(eds1)1Cambridge:CambridgeUniversityPress,19931ꆲ4ꆳBerger,A1N1andG1F1Udell1TheEconomicsofSmallBusinessFinance:TheRolesofPrivateEquityandDebtMarketsintheFinancialGrowthCycle[J]1JournalofBanking&Finance,1998,(22)1ꆲ5ꆳGreenwood,J1andB1Javanovic1FinancialDevelopment,Growth,andtheDistributionofIncome[J]1JournalofPoliticalEconomy,1990,98(5)1ꆲ6ꆳKing,R1G1andR1Levine1FinanceandGrowth:SchumpeterMightbeRight[J]1QuarterlyJournalofEconomics,1993,108(3)1ꆲ7ꆳKing,R1G1andR1Levine1Finance,Entrepreneurship,andGrowth:TheoryandEvidence[J]1JournalofMonetaryEconomics,1993,32(3)1ꆲ8ꆳSchuhmacher,Frank1Capacity2priceCompetitionandFinancialStructure[J]1AachenUniversityofTechnologyWorkingPaper,20011ꆲ9ꆳShowalter,D1M1OligopolyandFinancialStructure:Comment[J]1AmericanEconomicsReview,1995,(85)1ꆲ10ꆳZechner,J1FinancialMarket2ProductMarketInteractionsinIndustryEquilibrium:ImplicationsforInformationAcquisitionDecisions[J]1EuropeanEconomicReview,1996,(40)1ꆲ11ꆳFarmer,M1KnowledgeAbility,ActorsandUncertainWorlds[C]1InKeynes1KnowledgeandUncertainty[M]1S1DowandJ1Hillard(eds1)1EdwardElgar,19951ꆲ12ꆳHart,O1Firms,ContractsandFinancialStructure[M]1OxfordUniversityPress,19951StrategicInteractionbetweenProductMarkets&FinancialMarketsandEconomicGrowthZHOUYe2an(SchoolofEconomics,RenminUniversityofChina,ꆡBeijingꆡ100872,ꆡChina)Abstract:ꆡThefunctionalsubstitutionandstrategiccomplementationmayexistbetweenanymarkets1Forexample,giventhestructureofproductmarkets,theproducingstrategyofthefirmdependsonitsfinancingstrategybetweenthefirmmayusecapitalstructureasasignalorcommitmentdevice1Whenuncertaintyandboundedrationalitybeconsidered,thedifferentialknowledgestructureofagentsresultindivisionoflabor,someonemaybeskilledinproducing,othersmaybeexpertatfinancing1Thedivisionoflaborcreatesthestrategiccomplementaryeffectsbetweenproductmarkets,andfinancialmarkets,whichaccelerateeconomicdevelopment1KeyWords:ꆡfunctionalsubstitution;ꆡstrategiccomplementation;ꆡeconomicgrowthꆲ퓰죎뇠벭:룟ꆡ솸ꆳ28
