BP Statistical Review of World Energy June 2014BP世界能源统计年鉴2014年6月 #BPstatsEnergy in 2013: Taking stock2013能源市场：消费增长，库存支撑Introduction引言Energy and the economy能源和经济Fuel by fuel各类燃料的发展状况Conclusion结语Christof Rü June 2014克里斯托夫·鲁尔 2014年6月®BP 2014
Energy in 2013: Taking stockEnergy demand and rpices 能源市场：消费增长，库存支撑2013Primary energy consumption Inflation adjusted prices Billion toe $b/1230oe 8201OECDOil BrentNon-OECD7Gas Euroepan sopt09Gas USOutline 6Coal basket065•Introduction 034 •Energy and the economy 03 3991899130028002301239918991300280023102•Fuel by fuel Soruce :incldues data from SICI Heren Energy ,Energy nItelligence Gro ,puHSI MclCoseky and Platts BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2014 •Concluding remarks 能源需求和价格!BP Statistical Review of World Energy 一次能源需求!扣除通胀因素后的价格! © BP 2014 10ᅢܖᆳړଉ 2013ெᇮॏ߭/རᆳړଉ 8120ঢ়ࢇፇኯࡔॆ ็ᆳDŽք༬Dž ݥঢ়ࢇፇኯࡔॆ 7ཀഘDŽ౹ዞ၄ऋॏ߭Dž 90ཀഘDŽெࡔDž 6ீ༓DŽᅃફጱॏ߭Dž 605目录!30430•ᆅჾ 1993199820032008201319931998200320082013 ઠᇸ: ԈઔઠጲICIS Heren Energy, Energy Intelligence Group, IHS McCloskey and DŽPlattsDžڦຕ BP๘হీᇸཥऺ६ •ీᇸࢅঢ়ष © BP 2014 •߳ૌଙڦ݀ቛጒ •ᇕ oT begin with ,lets’ step bac ka little.首先，稍作回顾。BP๘হీᇸཥऺ६ eTn years ago ,the energy world looekd rather different. © BP 2014 uMch of what we too kfor granted has changed. It is always a good first step to loo kbac kat where you came from before assessing today. hWat have been some of the maojr changes over the past decade?十年前，能源世界大为不同。很多我们当时认为理所当然的事也已改变。在审视今天之前，对历史稍作回顾向来是好的第一步。那么，过去十年里发生了哪些重大改变？eTn years ago ,the developing world ,classified here as nonEO-C Deconomies ,had started to embar kon a period of nItroductionrapid economic growth t(he term BRICs was coined in 引言2001.) From 2001 onward ,this showed up as an e“nergy gap ” –global energy demand growth became dominated by the nonEO-C ;Din 200 ,8it overtoo kthe China ,rightly hTe purpose of this review has always been to provide or wrongly ,came to symboliez this ascent ,overtaikng the obejctive data on global energy developments ;and to E Uin 200 ,7the SUin 2010 and the whole of oNrth mAerica chronicle changes in global energy marekts year by year ,in last year. aMny would have found this hard to believe ten as rigorous a fashion as possible. eHre is last years’ ago. 本年鉴的宗旨一如既往地在于提供全球能源发展动态的十年前，本文归类为非经合组织经济体的发展中国家开客观数据；并竭尽所能严谨地逐年记录全球能源市场的变始进入经济快速增长期（2001年“金砖国家”一词出现）。化。本文讲述去年的能源动态。自2001年以来，这种增长体现出“能源缺口”——非经合组织主导着全球能源需求的增长；2008年，非经合组织的需求增长超过经合组织。中国成为上述需求增长的标志，姑且不论正确与否，其能源需求在2007年超过欧盟，2010年超过BP世界能源统计2014年6月1
美国，去年则超过整个北美。十年前，许多人会觉得此事难Perceptions change ,not only about reserves. Asupply 以置信。response always eixsted but it became widely recogniezd only after it triggered the emergence of n“ew ”sources of Energy marekts are huge and the supply response can supply. hTe biggest item on this list has to be the emergence be sluggish. oS prices started to rise and to diverge. iOl of unconventional oil and gas resources. hTat this would prices rose the fastest ,of course ,but many of the implications happen in the competitive energy world of oNrth mAerica are easily forgotten :today ,we thin kof oil prices above 1$00 maeks perfect economic sense ,in retrospect. But who as normal ,and many an analyst remains gainfully employed would have thought? by investigating gas price spreads –an activity which would not have attracted much attention ten years ago.各种认知发生变化，不仅是对储量的认知。供应侧的反应始终存在，但只有在其导致出现“新”供应来源后才会得能源市场非常庞大，供应侧反应可能缓慢。因此，价格到普遍认识。在这方面，规模最大的新供应来源当然是非常开始攀升——并呈现差异化。石油价格当然上涨最快，但很规油气资源。回头来看，非常规油气资源开发出现在高度竞多影响容易被遗忘：今天，我们认为石油价格超过100美元争的北美能源行业完全符合经济理论。但此前又有谁能够未是正常现象，许多分析师被高薪聘请，致力于研究天然气价卜先知呢？差——这项工作在10年前不会如此受到关注。If we loosely group together fuels that we may classify as n“ew ,”simply by virtue of having not been around a eRserevs and ne wsources of energy sulppy decade ago ,including renewables motivated by newly found climate change policies a(nd high fossil fuel prices ,)they Oil reserves aGs reserves Energy production growth 1320 rTillion bbls Tcm Annual change ,Mtoe accounted for 18 %of global primary energy production .20002005001501Othergrowth last year. North *如果我们将可归类为“新燃料”的各种燃料进行大致汇 总，其定义就是十年前尚不存在的燃料，而且包括由新出台 的气候变化政策（及居高不下的化石燃料价格）推动产生的World total可再生能源，“新燃料”去年在全球一次能源生产增长中的.00398189913012398189913012比重为18。% BP Statistical Review of World Energy *nIcldues ibofeuls © BP 2014 iTme to loo kat this in more detail.储量和新型供应源!现在可以进行更详细的分析。石油储量!天然气储量!3124年能源产量增长!万亿桶 万亿立方米 年度变化，百万吨油当量 其他 北美洲 前苏联可再生能源* 石油输出国组织 美国天然气 美国石油 总计 * 包括生物燃料 BP世界能源统计年鉴 © BP 2014 nOe trend that has not changed is reserves growth. It was always one of our more popular statistics ,but saying that proved reserves had increased ,after yet another year of rapid oil ,gas or coal consumption growth ,created a lot more disbelief then than now. But increase they did :proved oil and gas reserves are up 2 %7and 1 ,%9respectively ,over the last ten years alone –despite production growth of 11 %and 2.%9 没有改变的一个趋势是储量的增长。储量一直是较受欢迎的统计数据，但在石油、天然气和煤炭消费经历了又一年的迅猛增长后，提出探明储量有所增加的说法在当时引起的质疑远多于现在。但储量的确在增长：仅以过去的十年而论，石油和天然气的探明储量分别增加2和%71%9——尽管产量增幅为11%和2。%92BP世界能源统计2014年6月
possible to combine economic growth with stagnant or Energy and teh econoymfalling energy consumption. 能源和经济在过去十年里，虽然经合组织的经济增长为1%8，但其能源消费保持平稳。如果我们对一个特别合适的数据子集进Energy and the economy 行分析，即欧盟当前28个成员国去年的累计经济增长为54%，但能源消费却降至1988年的水平，——这里不难提P DGgrowth Energy and P DGin 1320 Annual change ,% Annual change ,% 出一个耐人寻味的问题，是否可能，或在什么情况下，可以0%1%8在经济增长的同时使能源消费滞缓或有所下降？Non-OECD OECD %8%6%6eManwhile in the nonEO-C ,Dstronger economic growth %4%4and industrialiaztion necessitated continued consumption %210 year average %0growth before ,during and after the crisis. hTe relationship %2World2-%OECDbetween economic and energy growth was uqite similar in Non-OECD%04-%PGDEnergyPGDEnergythe EOC Dand nonEO-C Dthe ten years before the crisis. 300250027002900210123012Soruce :incldues data from Oxford EconoimcsBP Statistical Review of World Energy fAter the crisis ,and presumably related to large ,energy Note :GDP growt habsed on Prucahsing Power Parity measrue of GDP © BP 2014 intensive fiscal stimuli elsewhere ,energy intensity improved faster in the 能源和经济!在非经合组织，较为强劲的经济增长和工业化使能源消HEQ!增长!Fofshz!boe!HEQ!jo!3124!费在危机之前、期间和过后保持持续增长。在爆发危机前的年度变化, % 年度变化, % 十年，经合组织与非经合组织各自的经济与能源增长之间的10%8%非经合组织 经合组织 8%关系非常类似。在危机爆发后，可能是在大规模、改善能源6%6%强度的财政刺激影响下，经合组织的能源强度改善更快。4%4%2%10年平均 2013 broek this pattern. Global primary energy 0%2%世界 consumption accelerated from 1. %8to 2. ,%3ujst a tick -2%经合组织 非经合组织 0%-4%below the ten year average 2[. %. ]and despite slacekning 200320052007200920112013GDP能源 GDP能源 economic growth. For the two subgroups ,fortunes diverged.来源㨠包括来自牛津经济研究院的数据BP世界能源统计年鉴 ?备注 㨠䝄?增长率是基于购买力平价（）偐?的数据计算?© BP 2014 2013年打破了这种模式。虽然经济增长疲软，但全球一lGobal economic growth has been softening since 2010, 次能源消费加速增长，从1.增%8至2.，%3仅略低于十年平the year of big economic stimuli. aLst year it was ,%3a little 均水平[2.]%5。对于两个群体而言，命运迥异。weaekr than 2012 ,and considerably below its ten year average .3[ %. ,]which now includes the years of boom EOC Denergy demand rose by ,%offsetting an euqal and bust before and after the economic crisis. Economic decline the previous year ,despite slowing and laclkustre performance softened in the EOC Dand nonEO-C Daliek ,but economic performance –almost on a par with PDG growth the economic g“rowth gap ”between them has narrowed 1[..]%3 oNnEO-C Denergy consumption ,in contrast ,grew since the crisis. by only .31 ,%the slowest rate for 1 3years ,ecxept for the crisis year 200 9 –and substantially below PDG growth 2010年实行大规模经济刺激，之后全球经济增长放缓。4[..]%8去年的增速为%3，略低于2012年，远低于过去十年平均水平尽管经济状况疲软无力且乏善可陈，经合组织的能源需[.3]%7，这十年包括了经济危机前后的繁荣与萧条年份。经合组织与非经合组织的经济状况均显疲软，但两者间经求仍增长%，抵消了此前一年同等幅度的下滑，几乎与国内生产总值增长持平[1.。]%3与之对照，非经合组织的能济“增长差距”自危机以来有所缩小。源消费仅增长.31，%在过去的13年里，这是除2009年危机年份外的最低增速，而且远低于国内生产总值的增长[4.]%8。Energy consumption followed economic growth ,but with a consumtpion in 3102 能源消费与经济增长的趋势一致，但其间出现过一次波rGowth by region rGowth by fuel 动。Annual change ,% Annual change ,% 3-%%0%3%6%93-%%0%3%6%92%1Energy consumption growth in the EOC Dhas been flat fAricaeRneawbles163.% Middle EastNuclearover the last ten years ,despite economic growth of 1.%8 S &C mAericayHdronAd ,if we taek a particularly fitting subs-et ,energy Europe & EurasiaGassAia aPcificCoalconsumption in todays’ 2 8member states of the European oof hwich China f hwich Chinaof hwich Chhina inanUion last year was bac kat the level of 1 ,889despite North mAericaOil10 year average cumulative economic growth of 45 % –raising the intriguing oof hwich SU of hwich SU f hwich SUUSuBP Statistical Review of World Energy qestion whether ,or under which circumstances ,it may be © BP 2014 BP世界能源统计2014年6月3
growth. eW will discuss the details in a minute.即使只看全球燃料需求总量，上述效应也显而易见。中2013ీᇸၩݯ 国造成了煤炭需求增长的相对疲软，而美国推动了石油需求ݴ൶ᇘሺ ݴଙሺ 保持较为强劲的增长。本文稍后将进行详细讨论。܈Վࣅ, % ܈Վࣅ, % -3%0%3%6%9%-3%0%3%6%9%12%ݥዞ ምิీᇸ % lAl told ,the diverging performance of China and the S Uዐ۫ ࢃీ caused the e“nergy gap ”between nonEO-C Dand EOCD ዐళெዞ ۉ energy consumption growth to narrow sharply. It became ౹ዞत౹ჱٷ ཀഘ ჱں൶ ீ༓ the smallest since 2000.ഄ其ዐ中ǖ：ዐ中国ࡔ 其中：C中hi国na ԛெዞ ็ᆳ 10ೝ ഄ其ዐ中ǖ：ெ美国ࡔ 其中：美U国S 总而言之，中美之间截然不同的表现使非经合组织与经BP๘হీᇸཥऺ६ 合组织的能源消费增长之间的“能源缺口”大幅缩小，达到 © BP 2014 2000年以来的最低水平。 North America, the only region globally to show above-hWat can the energy data tell us ?rAe these data points average growth ,drove the EOC Dacceleration ,with energy a harbinger of things to come or ujst an aberration o?To early demand growing even faster than PDG. hTe nonEO-CD to tell is the appropriate answer. In our tetxboosk ,energy slowdown was concentrated in sAia, with energy demand is the conseuqence of economic growth. In reality, consumption growth below 4 %for only the second time in where data measurement is less than perfect ,energy data 12 years ,while economic growth held steady .5[2.]%often allows for conclusions about real economic activity. In the present contetx ,it is easy to see how abundant domestic 作为能源需求增长高出平均水平的全球唯一区域，北美resources in the SUwould eventually give a boost to the 推动了经合组织需求的加速增长，北美能源需求的增速甚至economy ,not ujst to energy demand. It is much harder to 超过了国内生产总值的增长。非经合组织的增速放缓主要体see how the fundamental restructuring underway in China 现在亚洲，其能源消费增长在过去12年中第二次出现低于could leave an imprint only on energy demand without, 4的%水平，而经济增长保持稳定[.52]%。eventually ,affecting economic performance as well. hTe contrasting epxeriences of oNrth mAerica and sAia 上述能源数据能够揭示什么要素？这些数据是未来发展Pacific reflect the differing fortunes of the worlds’ largest 的预兆还是偶尔出现的偏差？正确的答案是现在下结论为时energy consumers ,China and the .SUo Tgether ,they account 过早。在教科书中，能源需求是经济发展的结果。在现实for more than 07 %of world energy consumption growth. 中，尽管数据测量并非完美，但能源数据通常有助于对实体经济活动作出结论。在当前背景下，不难看出美国富饶的国北美和亚太地区的鲜明对照反映出世界最大的能源消费内资源将如何最终推动经济发展，而不仅是拉高能源需求。国——中国和美国的不同发展轨迹。中美两国的能源消费增更难以琢磨的是，中国方兴未艾的基本结构调整如何可以只长之和占全球增长的07以%上[]%。改变能源需求，而不会最终影响经济绩效。In 201 3Chinese energy growth slipped from .70 %to eLts’ loo kat these developments fuel by . ,%7and thus well below its ten year trend .8[6 %. ]– although the Peoples’ Republic reported unchanged 让我们根据各种燃料对上述动态进行分析。economic growth of .7.%7 hTe slowdown in Chinese growth was concentrated in coal but is visible in oil as well. eManwhile , SUprimary energy consumption grew by 2., %9rebounding from a 2. %8decline in 2012. uMch of this is due to weather effects ;but beyond the weather ,there are signs of underlying strength in SUindustrial sector energy use ,in particular of oil products. 2013年，中国的能源消费增长从.70降%至4.，%7因而远低于其十年趋势水平[年均.86]%——尽管中国所报告的经济增长仍高达.7%。中国的能源消费增长放缓主要体现在煤炭领域，但也包括石油消费。美国的一次能源消费增长2.，%9继2012年下滑%后出现反弹。这种增长在很大程度上源自天气因素；但除天气之外，美国工业部门的能源消费出现根本性的增长迹象，特别是对石油产品的需求反弹。hTe effects are visible ,even if we only loo kat global fuel aggregates. China is responsible for the relative weankess of coal growth ,and the SUfor the relative strength of oil 4BP世界能源统计2014年6月
增长——这与2012年的动态恰好相反。因此库存量下滑。uFel yb fuelnAd 201 3was yet another year of turbulence in oil 各种燃料production. eW are all familiar with the ongoing story of rapid growth in the ;SUbut it was also yet another year of significant supply disruptions ,most notably in oNrth fArica iOland the iMddle East. 石油2013年还是石油生产出现动荡的又一个年头。我们对美国产量迅猛增长的故事耳熟能详，但2013年也再次出现严重的供应减产，尤以北非和中东为甚。hTe oil market in 3102 Oil prices and volatility Production and consumption growth oS why did prices remain so stable ?eW will investigate $b/bl oVlatility* Annual change ,Mbd/ 2010% detail ,starting with global oil ovlatility )HSR(Consumtpion0015% rpice080%6那么，价格何以保持稳定？我们将详细探究，首先来看.15065%4全球石油消费情况。.10040%%10% consumtpion 20123012Soruce :incPBP Statistical Review of World Energy ldues data from latts *rhTee year standard deviation Oil consumption Largest changes in 1320 © BP 2014 Mbd/ Kbd/ 02-001-0000100200300455OECDNon-OECD05US2013็ᆳׇ China54rBaizl04็ᆳॏ߭ࢅհۯ ׂଉࢅၩݯሺ rAabia美元530桶!波动+!年度变化，百万桶0日!Italy12090%价格波动（右轴）!产量!消费!52Israel10075%石油价格!Non-OECDpaSin028060%%BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2014 4030%%00%石油消费!1969198019912002201320122013来源;!包括来自普氏)Qmbuut*的数据!CQ世界能源统计年鉴!石油消费!3124年变化最大的国家!!+!三年数据的标准差!©!CQ!3125!!百万桶/日 千桶/日 -200-100010020030040055经合组织国家 非经合组织国家 iOl prices over the last three years have been high but 50美国 中国 45remarakbly stable. In 201 ,3they dipped slightly ,with aDted 巴西 40俄罗斯 Brent averaging almost 1$0 91$[ ,] 3$below the 沙特阿拉伯 35average of 2011 and 2012. hTis has been the third consecutive 意大利 30墨西哥 非经合组织国家 year of prices above 1$00 ,a first in both real and nominal 25以色列 经合组织国家 西班牙 20terms ;and it has been the three year period with the lowest 日本 200320052007200920112013price volatility since 世界能源统计年鉴 © BP 2014 在过去三年里，石油价格居高不下但非常稳定。2013lGobal oil consumption last year rose by bM/d in 201, 3年，油价略微下跌，布伦特现货均价接近109美元[美or ,%higher than both 2012 and the ten year average. sA 元]，比2011年和2012年的平均价格低出3美元。石油价格连has become the norm ,growth was driven by the emerging 续第三年超过100美元，而实际及名义油价首度双双突破economies of the nonEO-C ,Dwhich for the first time 100美元大关；这三年是1079年以来油价波动幅度最小的时accounted for the maojrity of global consumption. EOCD 期。demand remained stagnant. hTe stability in oil prices betrays significant changes in 2013年，全球石油消费增长140万桶/日，即，%高于the underlying balance between consumption and 2012年的增长率及过去十年的平均水平。正如司空见惯的情production. In 201 ,3global consumption growth ecxeeded 况一样，增长的驱动因素是非经合组织的新兴经济体，它们production growth by a wide margint—he eaxct opposite of 在全球消费中的比重首次居多。经合组织的需求仍然停滞不the dynamics in 2012. sA a result ,inventories fell. 前。稳定的石油价格没有体现出消费及生产之间基本平衡状In the EOC ,Dthe SUstood out as its consumption grew 况发生的重大变化。2013年，全球消费增长远远超过生产by 400 bK/d ,the fastest growth of any country last year – BP世界能源统计2014年6月5
and i(n volume terms )outpacing China for the first time since In contrast ,consumption in the rest of the EOC Dfell 分产品的石油消费量!by a larger than average 083 bK/d ,led by a 160 bK/d decline 3124年各类产品增幅!3124年美国增幅!in Japan ,where oil was bacekd out of power generation by 千桶/日 千桶/日 600-1000100200renewables, coal and improved efficiency. European 中质馏分油 consumption dropped by 103 bK/d ,with the largest declines 液化石油气* 和石脑油 400seen in the countries most affected by the recession ,such 汽油 汽油 200as pSain ,Italy and rGeece. 中质馏分油 10年平均 0其他 就经合组织而言，美国脱颖而出，消费增长40万-20010年平均 桶/日，为去年增速最快的国家——（按量计算）自1年非经合组织国家 经合组织国家 999* 包括乙烷 BP世界能源统计年鉴 以来首度超过中国。与此对照，其他经合组织经济体的消费 © BP 2014 降幅超过平均水平，为万83桶/日，日本首当其冲地减少16万桶/日，其原因包括可再生能源和煤炭在发电行业中挤占 Areview of oil consumption by product can help to 了石油的份额，以及能效有所提高。欧洲的消费下降13万identify underlying economic forces. iLght distillates ,such as 桶/日，受衰退影响最大的国家跌幅最大，例如西班牙、意gasoline ,more dependent on prices ,were the fastest 大利和希腊。growing product category for the second consecutive year 6[20 bK/d ,]whereas middle distillates ,more dependent on oNnEO-C Dconsumption rose by bM/d or .31 ,%well economic activity ,grew only slowly 4[09 bK/d.] hTe main below the ten year average .3[ %..] hTis weankess was driver of light distillate growth was strong gasoline demand especially pronounced in China ,where demand grew by only in the nonEO-C ;DEOC Dgasoline consumption registered a 093 bK/d –the lowest since the recession in rGowth rare ,small increase. hTe slowdown in middle distillate in India 4[0 bK/d ]fell to its lowest level since 2001 as demand growth was again entirely driven by the developing subsidies were reduced while in the iMddle East ,growth world where growth almost halved t[o 053 bK/d from 660 was limited by civil unrest and rising use of natural gas in bK/d in 2012.] nAd within this group it was again China which aSudi rAabias’ power sector. accounted for by far the largest part of the slowdown. 非经合组织的消费增长140万桶/日，即.31，%远低于十按各种石油产品对石油消费进行评估有助于确定基本的年平均水平[.3]%9。中国的消费疲态最为明显，需求仅增加经济因素。对价格依赖较强的汽油等轻质馏分油连续第二年39万桶/日——为2009年发生经济衰退以来的最低水平。印成为增长最快的石油产品类别[62万桶/日]，而对经济活动度在削减补贴后，增幅[4万桶/日]降至2001年以来的最低水依赖较强的中质馏分油仅呈现缓慢增长[49万桶/日]。轻质平，而中东地区的增长受到内部动乱及沙特发电部门增加天馏分油增长的主要驱动因素是非经合组织强劲的汽油需求；然气使用等因素的制约。经合组织的汽油消费呈现难得一见的小幅增长。中质馏分油需求放缓的驱动因素仍是发展中国家，这些国家的增长几乎oS far in 2014 ,global oil demand growth has been slower 减半[从2012年66万桶/日降至万53桶/日]。在这一国家组别due to more modest demand growth in the SUand a further 中，需求减缓仍然主要源自中国。slowdown in by product category also helps to 2014年迄今为止，由于美国需求的增长幅度减小及中国disentangle the uqestion why the SUsaw such a dramatic 需求的进一步放缓，全球石油需求增长减速。increase in oil consumption last year –up 400 bK/d ,against an average annual decline of 110 bK/d over the last ten years. hTis cannot be epxlained by economic growth which slowed from 2. %8to 1. %9last year. hTe rise was focused in the Oil consumtpion by rpoduct industrial sector ,including refining and petrochemicals, rGowth by product type in 1320 S Ugrowth in 1320 which contributed almost 08 %of net growth 13[0 bK/d.] Kbd/ Kbd/ 01-00001002006uMch of this growth was for light products i[n particular Middledistillates* PGLand nahpthaPL ,]Gfacilitated by the robust growth of domestic natural 004Gasolinegas liuqids ,which has driven down prices significantly over Gasoline002the last few 1yearMiddle distillatesaverage0Other按产品类别进行区分还有助于解析美国去年的石油消费02-010 year average Non-OECD OECD 激增现象——增加40万桶/日，而在过去十年里则年均减少BP Statistical Review of World Energy *nIcldues etahne 11万桶/日。经济增长无法解释这一现象，因为美国去年的 © BP 2014 经济增长从%降至%。石油消费增长集中在工业部门，包括炼油和石化行业，工业部门在净增长中所占比重接近08[%13万桶/日]。这种增长主要集中在轻质石油产品[特别是液化石油气]，这得益于美国国内天然气液体产品在过去6BP世界能源统计2014年6月
几年的强劲增长促使价格出现大幅下跌。for itself. vAerage POEC crude production was near the groups’ 03 bM/d production ceiling ,which has been in place since eDcember 2011. Oil rpoduction Largest changes in 132 0 Largest oil production increases 与此同时，石油输出国组织的产量减少60万桶/日。除Mbd/ Annual change ,Mbd/ 了稍后将讨论的意外供应减产外，沙特继2012年创下产量纪.-.. 1991录后减产11万桶/日。阿联酋的产量则实现新高，增长[2万5US Saudi 3791Non-OPEC UAE Saudi 6891桶/日]，但仅部分抵消了石油输出国组织的产量下滑。石油Canada Saudi 6791OPEC Saudi 0991Russia 输出国组织的平均原油产量接近该组织自2011年12月设定的Saudi 9791Norway Saudi 2791UK Saudi 30020300万桶/日生产上限。Nigeria Saudi 8891S U0321Saudi Arabia Iran 2891Syria Saudi 1102Iran iLbya 2102 SUoil production ecxeeded 10 bM/d in 201 ,3reaching Libya S U021the highest level since 1689. rDiven by tight oil plays ,S UBP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2014 production rose by over bM/d in 201 3 –the second consecutive year of above 1 bM/d of supply growth ,and the second consecutive b“iggest increase in SUhistory. ”Indeed, 石油生产!only aSudi rAabia has ever had a bigger increase than the S U3124年变化最大的国家!石油生产增长排序!in 201 3 –nine times in total ,to be precise ;but in si xof those 百万桶0日!年度变化-!百万桶0日! times the increment resulted from the ability to tap 沙特!2::2!美国!沙特!2:84!eixsting spare production capacity. In terms of o“rganic” 阿联酋!沙特!2:97!加拿大!沙特!2:87!growth ,based on capacity epxansion ,last years’ SUincrease 俄罗斯沙特!2::1!!沙特!2:8:!挪威!沙特therefore was the fourth biggest in history. !2:83!英国!沙特!3114!尼日利亚!沙特!2:99!非石油输出国组织国家!沙特阿拉伯!美国!3124!叙利亚石油输出国组织国家伊朗!2:93!!!2013年，美国的石油产量突破1000万桶/日，达到1689沙特!3122!伊朗!利比亚!3123!利比亚!美国!3123!年以来的最高水平。在致密油藏的推动下，2013年的美国产CQ世界能源统计年鉴!量增加110多万桶/日——供应量增长连续第二年超过100万!©!CQ!3125!桶/日，连续第二次实现“美国历史上的最大增产”。实际uTrning to production, 2013 can once again be 上，仅沙特曾超过美国2013年的生产增量——准确而言，共characteriezd as a tale of maojr supply disruptions and of 有9次超过上述增量；但9次中的6次是依靠挖掘现有闲置产historic SUgrowth. eW will address these in turn after 能。就基于产能扩建的“内生”增长而言，美国去年的增长reviewing the data.在历史上排名第四。在生产方面，2013年的特点还是严重的供应减产及美国oS far this year , SUproduction growth has been even 的创纪录增长。我们在评估数据后将进行逐一分析。stronger n[early 1. 3bM/d ,yearo-ny-ear.] POEC crude output has fallen further ,averaging well below 03 bM/d and largely lGobal output rose slightly in 201 365[0 bK/d ,]due to the due to the ongoing sharp decline in iLbyan increase in nonPO-EC countries 1[.2 bM/d ]since 2002. hTe main contributor to this growth was the ,SUbut 今年迄今为止，美国的产量增长更为强劲[同比增加近supplies also grew in Canada and Russia. Russia 1[05 bK/d] 130万桶/日]。石油输出国组织的原油产量进一步下滑，平posted a record high for the postoS-viet era. Canadian 均来看远低于0300万桶/日的水平，这主要是由于利比亚产production 2[10 bK/d ]reached an allt-ime high due to 量持续出现急剧下滑。continued oil sands growth. hTese increases more than offset continued declines in mature areas such as the oNrth eSa KU[and oNrway ,08- bK/d each.] Oil sulppy disrutpions 由于非石油输出国组织实现2002年以来的最大增产[120万桶/日]，2013年的全球产量略有增加[65万桶/日]。上述增Cumulatiev change since ,40Q1Mbd/ 长的主要贡献者是美国，但加拿大和俄罗斯的供应也有所增4加。俄罗斯[15万桶/日]实现了后苏联时代的产量新高。加拿iLbyaIranOtherUSNet3大的产量[21万桶/日]在油砂持续增长的推动下达到历史最2高水平。这些增量超过了北海[英国和挪威，各减产8万10桶/日]等成熟产油区域产量的持续减量。1-2-eManwhile ,POEC production contracted by 600 bK/d. In 3-1Q111Q121Q131Q142Q112Q122Q132Q143Q113Q123Q133Q144Q11addition to unplanned disruptions which we will discuss in a Sorucenergy :incldues data from US Energy nIforamtion dAministrationBP Statistical Review of World E Note :Otehr incldues SduanS/ Sduan ,Syria & Yemen minute ,aSudi rAabia cut output by 110 bK/d after producing © BP 2014 at record levels in 2012. hTe declines were only partly offset by an increase in the EAU 2[05 bK/d ,]which set a new record BP世界能源统计2014年6月7
石油供应减产!石油供应减产和美国产量增长 ٗ10ڼ4ल܈ᅜઠڦેओՎࣅଉ, ӥྤར/න 从21年第5季度以来的累积变化量-!百万桶0日!44૧Բჱ ᅉશ ഄ USNet利比亚!伊朗!其他!美国!净值!33221100-1-1-2-2-3-31Q112Q113Q114Q111Q122Q123Q124Q121Q132Q133Q134Q131Q141Q112Q113Q114Q111Q122Q123Q124Q121Q132Q133Q134Q131Q14ઠᇸ: Ԉઔઠጲெࡔీᇸ൧Ԓ႑တຈڦຕ BP๘হీᇸཥऺ६ 来源;!包括来自美国能源情报信息署的数据!CQ世界能源统计年鉴!Ԣጀ : ഄں൶Ԉઔ໋چ/ళ໋چLjႼ૧ჱࢅᄺோ 备注!;!其他地区包括苏丹0南苏丹，叙利亚和也门!© BP 2014 ©!CQ!3125! !!sA in recent years ,supply disruptions were large and For the biggest part the answer has to be that the supply disruptions in fArica and the iMddle East were matched concentrated in oNrth fArica and the iMddle East. iLbya has almost eaxctly by the shaler-elated production increases in been a focal point :following initial outages of bM/d in the .SU It is a fair conclusion that oil marekts would loo kvery 2011 due to civil war ,production staged a nearlyf-ull recovery different today ,had we only witnessed supply disruptions on in 2012 1[ bM/d.] But renewed unrest in the second half of the scale they actually happened. nAd vice versa ,oil marekts 201 3led to an average annual decline of 250 bK/d last year. would loo kvery different today had we only witnessed the Iranian production declined by 109 bK/d as a result of shale r“evolution ”in the .SU Importantly ,the match is sheer continued international sanctions. iSgnificant losses were coincidence. Higher prices may induce more shale production. But virtually nothing else of logic or substance also seen in ySria ,the uSdans and eYmen. Cumulative connects the two developments. nAd so marekts will supply disruptions since the advent of the rA“ab pSring” remain on edge –or eerily calm –until one side gains the from these countries have reached an etxraordinary 3bM/ hand. 如同近年来的情况，供应减产的规模较大且集中发生在在很大程度上，答案应该是美国与页岩相关的产量增长北非和中东地区。利比亚是一个焦点地区：继2011年由于内几乎完全弥补了非洲和中东地区的供应中断。合理的结论战而初步停产120万桶/日后，2012年几乎完全恢复了生产是，如果只发生当前实际出现的大规模供应中断，今天的石水平[100万桶/日]。但2013年下半年再度出现的动乱使去年油市场状况将非常不同。反之亦然，如果仅有美国的页岩“的产量年均减少25万桶/日。伊朗的产量在持续的国际制裁革命”，当前的石油市场也绝非如此。重要的是，两者的此下减少消彼长纯属巧合。高价格可能刺激更多的页岩生产。但实际19万桶/日。叙利亚、南北苏丹和也门均出现严重减上，没有合乎逻辑或具有实质意义的其他因素能够将上述两产。这些国家自“阿拉伯之春”爆发以来的累计供应减产高种动态结合到一起。因此，在其中一种因素占据上风前，市达惊人的030万桶/日。场仍将保持紧张不安——或者诡异的平静。eW are now in a better position to return to the uqestion Oil inevntories of why oil prices were so stable the last three years ,despite OEC Dcommercial inventories OEC Dstocks and forward markets the violent shifts we observed in bbls Dated Brent minus 12-month futures ,$b/bl .28010Q104Q-01我们现在能更好地回答此前的问题，即虽然我们看到产5量出现严重波动，为何石油价格在过去三年保持如此的稳.27oPst rAab0prSing:定。-0 -5aJnMarMayuJleSpNov05254565850626OECD days of forward cover Oil sulppy disrutpions and SUrpoduction grotwh Soruce :incld ues data from teh nIternational Energy gAency © OEEBP Statistical Review of World Energy ID/C A2014 ,Platts and nItercontinental Excahnge ,nIc. © BP 2014 Cumulatiev change since ,40Q1Mbd/ 石油库存!4iLbyaIranOtherUSNet3经合组织国家商业库存!经合组织国家库存和期货市场!2百万桶 即期布伦特价格减去12个月期货价格, 美元/桶 阿拉伯之春02-之后: 1Q11-4Q13 -10Soruce :incBP Statistical Review of World Energy ldues data from US Energy nIforamtion dAministration Note :Otehr incldues SduanS/ Sduan ,Syria & Yemen © BP 2014 2008-12 区间 -15一月!!!!!三月!!!!五月!!!!!七月!!!!!九月!!!!!十一月!JanMarMayJulSepNov50525456586062经合组织库存可满足未来需求的天数 来源: 包括来自国际能源署, 普氏(Platts) 和 Intercontinental Exchange, Inc的数据 . BP世界能源统计年鉴 © BP 2014 8BP世界能源统计2014年6月
In an interesting way ,this current stando-ff finds itself Refiningreflected in the relationship between prices and inventories. Commercial in炼油ventories contracted in 201 ,3ending the year down almost 100 bMbls on 2012 ,at the lowest yeare-nd level since 2004. tA the start of the year ,inventories were ample following strong production growth in 2012 ,but eRfining caapcity stronger demand growth soon corrected this ,and when Capacity growth in 1320 Cumulative spare capacity growth iLbyan supply collapsed in eSptember ,EOC Dinventories Mbd/ Mbd/ since 2005 started to fall rapidly. tSocsk have remained low so far this -..-OECDCrude run year ,particularly for refined mAericaOECD163.% changes 6 S &C mAericaMiddle East有趣的是，当前的拉锯还体现在价格与库存之间的关系4fArica上。2013年的商业库存有所下滑，该年结束时比2012年减少2sAia aPcific近10万桶，是2004年以来的最低年终水平。2013年伊始，FSU0库存水平在2012年的强劲生产增长推动下非常充足，但更强Europe7002800290020102110221023102劲的需求增长很快改变了这种状况，当利比亚的供应在9月Soruce :incldues data from SICI Paripnelli eTcnon and Energy SecrBP Statistical Review of World Energy uity nAalysis ,nIc. © BP 2014 份陷入瘫痪时，经合组织的库存开始迅速下滑。今年迄今为止，特别是精炼产品的库存仍处于低位。炼油产能!But there is a more subtle 年产能增长!累积闲置产能增长!百万桶/日 自2005年起，百万桶/日 -0 -0 30 00 30 0 但是，还存在更微妙的问题。非经合组织国家 原油加工北美洲 经合组织国家 1 3 量变化 中南美洲 hTe relationship between the level of EOC Dcommercial 中东 4inventories and prices has shifted since the advent of 非洲 significant supply disruptions in early 2011. hTe shape of the 亚太地区 2前苏联 forward curve since then indicates that marekt participants 0欧洲 are willing to pay a higher premium relative to future prices200 200 200 2010201120122013 来源: 包括来自ICIS Parpinelli Tecnon and Energy Security Analysis, Inc.的数据 BP世界能源统计年鉴 to hold physical inventories than was the case a few years © BP 2014 ago –a clear indication of an increased desire for precautionary lGobal refining has been struggling for years ,suqeeezd inventory holdings. Even as inventories fell in late 201 3a(nd between ecxess capacity and slower throughput growth. so far this year )this higher premium has remained in place. Regional disparities are adding to the woes of the sector, Current inventory levels under the old ,pred-isruption regime with more capacity being added East of uSe zand S Uwould have corresponded to lower spot and/or higher future throughputs rising as a result of rising tight oil production: crude epxorts from the SUare legally constrained ,S Urefineries are processing the discounted domestic crude at 自2011年年初出现大规模的供应减产以来，经合组织的home and epxorting products instead. 2014 so far saw a 商业库存水平与价格之间的关系有所改变。自此以后的远期continuation of these trends.曲线走势表明，与几年前相比，市场参与者愿意支付与较高的期货价格溢价以持有实物库存——这明确表明持有预防性全球炼油行业多年来一直饱受煎熬，在过剩的产能和加库存的意愿有所增强。即使库存水平在2013年末出现下滑工量增长放缓的夹缝间腹背受敌。区域差异使该行业的处境（直至今年），上述较高溢价仍得以维持。如果是在供应中雪上加霜，苏伊士以东的炼能有所增加而美国的加工量在致断前的旧机制下，当前的库存水平应导致出现较低的现货价密油产量增加的推动下不断提高：由于美国的原油出口面临格或较高的期货价格。法律限制，美国炼油厂正在对价格较低的国内原油进行加工并转而出口成品油。2014年迄今，这些趋势仍得以延续。lGobal refining capacity grew by million b/d last year, the highest net capacity addition since Capacity growth was led by China 6[60 bK/d ]with the iMddle East not far behind. lGobal crude runs ,in contrast ,grew by only million b/d and as a result ,global spare capacity is now almost 7bM/d more than it was in 200 ,5the low point in our data series. eDspite this dismal bacgkround ,global refining margins were strong during the first half of 201 3due to a combination of cold northern hemisphere weather and refinery 世界能源统计2014年6月9
长，新增物流能力跟不上原油供应普遍增加的步伐。因此，去年，全球炼油能力增长140万桶/日，是200年9以来净这种差距仍在不断变化。炼能增量最大的年份。炼能增长的引领者是中国（66万桶/日），而中东紧随其后。与此对照，全球原油加工量仅hTe new pipeline infrastructure has made it possible to 增加40万桶/日，导致当前全球闲置炼能与200年5相比高出move more crude to the uGlf Coast ,but epxort constraints 近700万桶/日，而2005年是我们数据系列中的低点。在这mean that the price discounts have spread to a wider range 种惨淡的背景下，2013年上半年的全球炼油利润却非常可of crudes. sA a conseuqence , SUrefiners epxorted record 观，这得益于北半球的寒冷天气以及炼油厂停产所产生的综volumes of distillate last year 1[.1 bM/d ]rather than replenish 合作用。domestic stocsk. Its reduced dependence on longh-aul crude imports may well have facilitated a longer term drop in eRfinery utiliaztion and crude differentials worikng product utilization BrentI-WT $b/bl 新的管道基础设施使更多原油运至墨西哥湾成为可能，029%8World但出口限制意味着更多类型原油的价格持续低迷。因此，美OECD516%8国炼厂去年的馏分油出口创下纪录，而非用以补充国内库Non-OECD01存。美国对远道而来的原油的进口依存度降低，这很可能促3%85使流动油品库存在长期内出现下滑。0%80Conversely ,European crude runs in 201 3fell 055-[ bK/d, ]7%75-5002700290021012301290020121012201230124012ytd to their lowest annual level since European demand is Soruce :incldues data from Energy Secruity nAalysis ,nIc .and Platts BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2014 contracting and –different from sAia –todays’ problems can only be fiexd by reducing capacity.炼厂开工率和原油价差!相反，2013年的欧洲原油加工量下降[万55-桶/日]，降至炼厂开工率!布伦特.西德克萨斯!1年589以来的最低年度水平。欧洲需求正在萎缩，而且——美元/桶 89%20与亚洲不同——只能通过削减炼能来解决当前问题。世界!经合组织国家!1586%非经合组织国家!1083%580%077%-520052007200920112013200920102011201220132014至今 来源;!包括来自Fofshz!Tfdvsjuz!Bobmztjt-!Jod/!boe!普氏)Qmbuut*的数据!CQ世界能源统计年鉴!!©!CQ!3125!aLst years’ capacity and throughput developments meant that global average refinery utiliaztion slipped to ,%the lowest rate since tUilisation in the nonEO-C Dfell to .87 %5because of the fast pace of capacity additions ,but EOC Drefinery utiliaztion improved marginally 28[.4 ,]%with SUcrude runs benefiting from continued price discounts for domestic crudes ,and because of refinery shut downs elsewhere. 去年的炼能和加工量的动态使全球炼厂平均利用率降至，%为1987年以来的最低水平。由于炼能增长的速度较快，非经合组织的炼厂利用率降至.87，%5而经合组织的炼厂利用率略有提高，其原因是美国的原油加工量增加，这得益于国内原油价格的持续低迷及世界其他地区炼厂的关闭。hTe SUadded new crude oil pipeline capacity that helped to alleviate the transportation bottlenecsk which drive relative ITW prices ,but with tight oil output rising at a rapid clip ,logistics additions are inevitably less uniform than the rampu-p in crude supply. sA a result ,the differential continues to be volatile.美国建设了新的原油管道运输能力以缓解推动西德克萨斯轻质原油相对价格的运输瓶颈，但由于致密油产量迅猛增10BP世界能源统计2014年6月
组织消费增长的动力是美国；与石油不同的是，中国并不是aNtural aGs导致非经合组织消费增长疲软的原因。天然气 SUnatural gas market oHrizontal drilling rigs Consumption growth in 1320 lGobal natural gas markets Number of rigs Annual change ,Bcm 040106aNtural gas prices aGs consumption growth in 1320 $m/mBtu Annual change ,% 04Residential 051022-%%1%4%7aJapnese imoprt& 02Commercial German imoprt S &C mAericaOil 61007 UKPNBIndustrial 0Middle East USHH21oPwer 2-0503North mAericaGas 84-0sAia aPcific00 1year201230124Febaverage1-1Feb1-2Feb1-3Feb1-4fAricaSoruce :incBP Statistical Review of World Energy ldues data from Baekr gHuehs and US Energy nIformation dAministration 0 Europe & Eurasia10 year average © BP 2014 8991300280023012Soruce :inclds data from B BP Statistical Review of World Energy ue,AFAEnergy nItelligence and SICI Heren Energy © BP 2014 美国天然气市场 水平钻机数量 2013年消费增长 全球天然气市场!钻机个数!年度变化-!十亿立方米!140060天然气价格!3124年天然气消费增长!美元0百万英热单位!年度变化40-!&!民用!105020和!-2%1%4%7%日本进口!20商业!石油!德国进口!中南美洲!70016工业!0英国OCQ!美国亨利交易中心中东!!发电!12-20350天然气!北美洲!8-40亚太地区!010年平均20122013 F1e1b年-121月 1F2e年b-21月2 1F3e年b2-1月3 1F4e年b-21月4 4非洲!来源;!包括来自Cblfs!Ivhift和美国能源情报信息署的数据!CQ世界能源统计年鉴!!0欧洲及欧亚大陆©!CQ!3125!!10年平均 1998200320082013来源;!包括来自CBGB-!Fofshz!Joufmmjhfodf!boe!JDJT!Ifsfo!Fofshz的数据!CQ世界能源统计年鉴!!oT disentangle what happened ,lets’ start with the latest ©!CQ!3125!chapter of the evolving SUshale story. hTis chapter starts aNtural gas marekts are slowly transforming themselves, with slowing production growth ;from .7 %3in 2011 ,to %5in on the bac kof two developments :the shale gas r“evolution” 2012 and 1. %3in It has nothing to do with r“unning out in the SUand the increasing integration of hitherto segmented of shale ” –as some pundits have claimed –and everything regional marekts ,supported by the rapid epxansion of to do with the fungibility of drilling rigs and the power of liuqefied natural gas .)GNL( In 201 ,3these forces too ka price signals. breather - SUshale gas production growth slowed ,and G NLepxansion remained very modest. 为揭开真相，首先来看看不断演变的美国页岩传奇的最新章节。该章节以产量增长减缓作为开篇：从2011年的.7%3天然气市场正在发生缓慢变化，呈现两个发展动态：美降至2012年的，%5进而减至2013年的1.。%3与某些权威人国的页岩气“革命”以及目前分割性区域市场在液化天然气士的说法不同，这种情况与“页岩气枯竭”并没有关系，而迅速发展的推动下实现不断整合。2013年，这些因素的势头是与钻探设备流动性及价格信号的威力密切相关。减缓——美国的页岩气产量增长放缓，而液化天然气发展幅度仍然很小。 SUgas prices hit a 1 3year low in 2012 ,and started rebounding in the waek of a cold winter early in For the lGobally ,growth of consumption 1[.4 ,]%production year they were up 43. %5on average ,almost offsetting the 1[.1 ]%and trade 1[. ]%8all slowed. Regional price differentials 2012 decline. oHwever ,because of the persistently high oil-narrowed. sA in all other fossil fuels ,the slowdown in gas price differential ,this was not enough to accelerate demand growth was more pronounced in the developing production growth. It remained more attractive to c“hase world :natural gas was the only fuel where EOCD liuqids ,i”.e. to continue to divert drilling rigs from shale gas consumption growth outpaced nonEO-C Dgrowth. iLek oil, to tight oil production. lAmost all the growth in gas production tracing EOC Dgrowth leads to the ;SUunliek oil ,China was last year came from associated and wet shale gas ;dry shale not the reason for wea kgrowth in the was down.从全球来看，消费[%]、生产[%]和贸易[%]增长2012年，美国的天然气价格跌至13年以来的最低点，随均有所放缓。区域价差缩小。与其它的所有化石燃料一样，后在2013年年初的寒冬后开始反弹。美国的气价在2013年平发展中国家的需求放缓更为明显：天然气是经合组织的消费均上涨%，几乎抵消了2012年的跌幅。然而，由于石增长超过非经合组织的唯一燃料。与石油的情况相同，经合油-天然气的价差持续居高不下，这种价格反弹不足以推动BP世界能源统计2014年6月11
产量加速增长。“追寻液体燃料”仍然更具有吸引力，导致液化天然气项目规模庞大，而且需要巨额投资。目前，生产页岩气的钻探设备继续被用于致密油的生产。去年，几液化天然气的供应增长正处于多年以来的低潮，产能扩建非乎全部的天然气增产量来自伴生气和湿气；干气产量下降。常有限。2013年，供应仅增加%。这使市场供应呈现紧张状况，并将灵活的货物调配给愿意且能够支付高价的客户。因此，我们很自然地见证了重大调整。8iHgher prices ,low storage and the demand for heating1的%亚洲天然 signalled by a 1气进口是液化天然气，亚洲仍是液化天然气贸易的主要目的 %7increase in residential and commercial demand ,however ,did induce a dramatic pull out of natural地，吸纳了近的%57液化天然气货物。 gas from power generation –the point where it faces head-on competition with other fuels. oTtal SUconsumption grewJapan remained the worlds’ largest GNLimporter ,with by %but gasf-ired power generation declined by .8, %9postF-uukshima demand for GNLpersisting at record levels substituted by coal ;coalf-ired generation grew by .%5 For –but its gas fired power plants are now operating at full the first time since 200 ,8gas lost marekt share in SUpowercapacity ,and so Japanese imports have stopped growing. generation ,falling bac kalmost 3percentage points 03[.% 3Instead ,oSuth oKrea assumed the mantle of recording the to ]% -the biggest such loss since 1worlds’ largest import growth ,and again triggered by nuclear .379outages. 然而，高价格、低库存及1%7的民用和商业需求增长所表现出的旺盛取暖需求确实使发电部门中的天然气份额急剧日本仍是世界最大的液化天然气进口国，福岛事故后对下降——天然气在发电部门直面来自其他燃料的竞争。美国液化天然气的需求持续创下新高——但日本的天然气发电厂的天然气消费总量增加，%但天然气发电量减少目前正满负荷运行，因此日本的进口已停止增长。相反，韩.8（%9被煤炭取代）；燃煤发电量增长。%5自200年8以来，天然气国接过衣钵，创下世界最大的进口增量，这也是核电停产的在美国发电部门的市场份额首次出现下降，减少近3个百分结果。点[从03.降%3至]%——是1年379以来的最大降幅。eManwhile in China ,big strides were made toward the stated political goal of increasing the share of natural gas in lGobal GNLand sAian sulppy the energy mi xc[urrently .51.]% tA 10. ,%8China logged the lGobal GLNimports sAian supply growth in 1320 biggest increase in gas consumption in the world last year Bcm Annual change ,Bcm 1[.5 3Bcm.] nAd although production listed the second 60342Other largest global increment .9[ ,% 9Bcm ,]this still left a large LNG 61gap for import growth. hTe gap was filled by rising GNLu[p Pipeline ]%9s well as pipeline imports 2[.80 ;]%the latter mostly Asia Production 201from Central sAia where tentative steps toward domestic 0price reform in uTrmkenistan –coincidence or not –lowered Europe 8-0aJapn &ChinaIndiaconsumption by roughly the amount of additional pipeline 300250027002900210123012oSuth Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2014 与此同时，中国在实现提高天然气在能源结构中的比重[目前为%]这一既定政治目标方面取得了巨大的进展。去ඇ൰ᅂࣅཀഘׇࢅჱዞࠃᆌ 年，中国的天然气消费增长10.[%8135亿立方米]，居世界首ඇ൰ᅂࣅཀഘ੨ 2013ჱዞࠃᆌሺ 位。虽然中国的天然气生产实现全球第二大增量[%，99十亿立方米!年度变化，十亿立方米!36024亿立方米]，但仍有巨大的缺口需要通过增加进口予以解决。其他!液化天然气!这一缺口主要是通过进口液化天然气[增长22.%9]和管道天然16管道天然气!240气[%]来填补；管道天然气多来自中亚，来自该区域的土8亚洲!生产!库曼斯坦采取的国内价格改革等临时举措拉低了国内消费1200量，而减额大致与其管道天然气出口量旗鼓相当（姑且不论欧洲!-8是否纯属巧合）。0日本和韩国!中国!印度!200320052007200920112013CQ世界能源统计年鉴!!hTe flips-ide of higher demand growth and limited G NL©!CQ!3125!availability is that it puts the spotl-ight on problems with GNLproejcts are large and investments can be lumpy. domestic production. India is the prime eaxmple :caps on Currently ,supply growth is in the middle of a multiy-ear lull, producer prices have stalled investment and last year led to with very limited capacity epxansion. In 201 ,3supplies the worlds’ largest decline in gas production 6-[. 7Bcm or epxanded by merely .% hTis is ekeping marekts tight, 1-6..]%3 aLc kof cheaper priced domestic gas and the huge allocating fleixble cargoes to those willing and able to pay price advantage of coal over GNLimports has caused large high prices. mSall wonder ,then ,that we are witnessing scale substitution of gas with coal ,assigning to India also the massive adujstments. sAia ,where fully 18 %of all natural worlds’ largest decline in gas consumption .7- [3Bcm or gas imports are met by ,GNLremained the prime destination, .]% Ironically ,almost a third of the coal was almost %57of all cargoes headed that 世界能源统计2014年6月
液化天然气的需求增高而供应有限在另一方面则突出体下降[%]。在发电部门，天然气难以与价格更低的煤炭现了国内生产问题。印度是一个典型实例：印度对生产商设和非化石燃料竞争：在发电部门，天然气市场份额的降幅超定的价格上限阻碍了投资，导致印度在去年出现天然气产量过煤炭；而非化石燃料的市场份额有所增加。但总体来看，方面的世界最大降幅由于取暖需求增加，欧盟的天然气消费降幅仍低于煤炭。[67亿立方米或%]。缺乏低价的国内天然气供应及煤炭与进口液化天然气相比具有巨大价格优sA was the case for global oil marekts ,E Uimports were 势，这促使煤炭大规模地取代天然气，使印度的天然气消费affected by the social unrest plaguing fArica. Falling epxorts 也出现世界最大的降幅[73亿立方米或%]。具有讽刺意from oNrth fArica 1-[.8 ,]%7iNgeria 4-[.3 ,]%9and also 味的是，印度三分之一的煤炭来自进口。oNrway .5-[2 ]%meant a need for alternative deliveries. In the event ,Russia stepped into the void ,eliminating the need E Unatural gas market to compete for epxensive .GNL hTe net result was a big shift oPwer generation mix aNtural gas supply in the composition of imports ,with imports from Russian Share of total generation ,% Annual change ,Bcm rising by %5 –a marekd reversal of 2012 ,when Russia 520%5CoalGaseRneawblesOther*had lost 12 %of the E Ugas marekt to oNrway because Russia 0%4Norway aGpzrom maintained oil price indeaxtion while oNrway 00%3Other adujsted its pricing closer to spot prices. In 201 3the rapid LNG 0%2increase of European spot prices eroded much of the 2-5 Production 0%1previous differential ,but aGpzrom ,by its own accounts ,also offered discounts and rebates to sell gas on more competitive %05-030025002700290021012301220123012terms. Soruce :incldues data from ESNTOE and HSI ECRA BP Statistical Review of World Energy *nIcldues yhdro ,nculear and oil © BP 2014 与全球石油市场的情况相同，欧盟的进口受到困扰非洲的社会动乱影响。北非[%]、尼日利亚[%]和挪欧盟国家天然气市场!威[%]的出口供应量减少意味着欧盟需要寻找替代性供发电燃料结构!天然气供应!应来源。在此情况下，俄罗斯填补了空缺，使欧盟不需要参占总发电量比重-!&!年度变化-!十亿立方米!50%25加对昂贵的液化天然气的竞争。这种情况产生净结果是欧洲煤炭!天然气!可再生能源!其他+!的进口结构发生重大变化，来自俄罗斯的进口量增长40%俄罗斯!挪威!%——明显逆转了2012年的状况，俄罗斯在当年被挪威30%其他液化!夺走了12%的欧盟天然气市场份额，其原因是俄罗斯天然气天然气!20%-25北非!工业股份公司坚持将气价与石油价格挂钩的做法，而挪威则生产!10%将供气价格调整至接近现货价格的水平。2013年，欧盟的现0%-50货价格迅猛攀升，在很大程度上缩小了此前的价差，但就俄20032005200720092011201320122013罗斯天然气工业股份公司自身而言，它也通过提供折扣和返来源;!包括来自FOUTPF和剑桥能源咨询公司的数据!CQ世界能源统计年鉴!!+!包括水电、核能和石油!©!CQ!3125!利以更优惠条款出售天然气。Europe too ka rain chec kon the competition for , GNLhelped out by Russia. E Uproduction appears in terminal uRssian natural gas market and global trade decline and consumption reached the lowest level since Russian natural gas rTade share of global consumption In 201 3consumption fell by %and production by Annual change ,Bcm Share of consumtpion%, 022%30. ,%5and imports declined ipepline01uRssian ippeline4%2由于俄罗斯的供应，欧洲暂缓对液化天然气的争夺。欧06%1盟的液化天然气产量似乎每况愈下，而消费量则降至1999年1-0OtherProduction 以来的最低水平。2013年，其消费减少%，产量下降Gaprzom%%，而进口略有下滑。Net eopxrt3-0%02120 3120 39918991300280023012Soruce :incldues data from DU CMoE BP Statistical Review of World Energy sA in the ,SUthe year had started with a cold winter and © BP 2014 low storage levels. eDmand for heating drove up spot prices by 12. %3for the year ,whereas oili-ndeexd contract prices ܭஆຯཀഘׇࢅඇ൰ஹᅟ fell gently and in line with the price of oil 2-[.6.]% aGs lost ܭஆຯཀഘ ஹᅟඇ൰ၩݯԲዘ the competition in power generation against cheaper coal 年度变化-!十亿立方米!占消费量比重-&!and nonf-ossil fuels :in power ,its marekt share declined by 2032%液化天然气!其他管道气!more than that of coal ;while nonf-ossils gained. vOerall 10俄罗斯管道气!24%though ,E Ugas consumption still fell less than coal ,because 016%of increased heating demand.-10其他!产量!俄罗斯天然气公司!8%-20消费量!与美国的情况相同，欧洲在2013年初也面临寒冷的冬季净出口!-300%及很低的库存水平。旺盛的取暖需求将当年的现货价格推高2012 2013 %，而与油价挂钩的合同价格跟随石油价格的步伐略有来源;!包括来自DEV!NpF的数据!CQ世界能源统计年鉴!!©!CQ!3125!BP世界能源统计2014年6月13Net imports 净进口!
Russia bucekd the global trend :gas production increased the general direction of travel –towards a more inter-by %or Bcm –the largest production increase in the connected gas world. nOe episode from 201 3nicely world ,on the bac kof higher capacity utiliaztion and increasing illustrates the degree of integration international gas marekts output from independent gas producers –that is all producers have already achieved :gas displaced by strong hydro growth ecxept aGpzrom ,which holds the epxort monopoly. aLst in Russia was epxorted to Europe while GNLdestined for year they accounted for 2 %8of Russias’ production and, Europe was ree-pxorted to droughts-tricekn oSuth mAerican because they offer cheaper gas ,supplied %93of Russias’ marekts. In effect ,hydroelectricity from Russia with too domestic gas consumption. hTe erosion of its marekt share much rainfall was shipped half way around the globe to at home allowed aGpzrom to direct more resources mAerica with too little rain –and in the form of natural gas.俄罗斯的情况与全球趋势背道而驰：天然气产量增加，%即124亿立方米——实现了世界最大的增产量，这是液化天然气供应增长的暂时低潮无法阻扰其总体发展方源自开工率的提高和独立天然气生产商产量的增加——即除向——建立相互关联度更高的世界天然气格局。2013年发生拥有出口垄断权的俄罗斯天然气工业股份公司之外的所有生的一个事件很好地诠释了国际天然气市场业已实现的一体化产商。去年，独立生产商贡献了俄罗斯产量的2，%8由于这程度：俄罗斯的天然气被发展强劲的水电抢占其市场份额，些企业的天然气价格较低，它们提供了俄罗斯国内天然气消从而出口至欧洲，而原来运往欧洲的液化天然气则被转而出费量的。%93而鉴于其国内市场份额走低，俄罗斯天然气工口到遭遇干旱的南美市场。事实上，俄罗斯过于丰裕的降雨业股份公司得以将更多的资源出口到海外。产生的水电在跨越半个地球后被运到降雨匮乏的地区——但却是以天然气的方式运送。 Adrop in domestic gas consumption also helped 0-[.4, %2-. 8Bcm ,]in part because Russias’ Far East suffered from severe flooding early in 201 ;3the one silver lining to this cloud was the second biggest growth in Russian hydropower on Tgether with falling electricity demand ,it reduced the call on all other fuels for power generation ,including natural gas to maek room for more epxorts. lAl told ,epxorts grew by %or 10. 7Bcm.俄罗斯的国内天然气消费下滑也是原因之一[，%28亿立方米]，这在一定程度上是由于俄罗斯远东地区在2013oCal年年初遭遇严重洪水；在那场灾难后，俄罗斯的水电因祸得福，实现了有史以来的第二大增长。再加上电力需求下降，煤炭发电部门减少了对包括天然气在内的所有其它发电燃料的需求，这为增加天然气出口创造了空间。总而言之，俄罗斯的天然气出口增加，%即107亿立方米。hTe coal market oHw do these differing regional stories affect the Coal prices rGowth in China $t/onne Annual change ,Mtoe evolution of global gas trade ?rTade has grown at more than 002501ConsumtpionsAiaEuropeUStwice the rate of global consumption for at least two Consumption rPoduction6011(0 year avg). 251decades ,with GNLepxanding even faster. iSnce 2011 ,this 201relationship has started to dec-ouple ,with trade growth 00108slower than consumption and GNLlosing marekt share. In 5704201 ,3gas trade epxanded by only 1. ,%8slightly above consumption growth but considerably below the long term 05090020121012201230129002012101220123012average of .52 %. ,with pipeline trade again epxanding Soruce :incldues data from HSI BP Statistical Review of World Energy MclCoseky and Platts © BP 2014 faster 2[. ]%3than GNL0[.6.]%煤炭市场 这些不尽相同的区域发展动态对全球天然气贸易产生了何种影响？在过去至少二十年里，天然气贸易的增长是全球煤炭价格 中国增长 美元0吨!年度变化-!百万吨油当量!消费增长的两倍以上，而液化天然气的发展更快。自2011年150200消费量!以来，这种关系开始发生变化，贸易的增长慢于消费的增亚洲!欧洲!美国!消费量!产量!160125（21年平均）!长，而液化天然气的市场份额有所萎缩。2013年，天然气贸120易仅增长1.，%8略高于消费增长，但远低于.52的%长期平10080均水平，其中管道天然气贸易的增长[2.]%3还是快于液化天7540然气[]%。5002009201020112012201320092010201120122013hTe temporary lull in GNLsupply growth can not obscure 来源;!包括来自JIT!NdDmptlfz!和普氏（Qmbuut）的数据!CQ世界能源统计年鉴!!©!CQ!3125!14BP世界能源统计2014年6月
Coal rounds out the fossil fuel picture. In developing应的数据：在印度，国内天然气产量迅速下降而且煤炭相对 economies ,this fuel of industrialiaztion often is a reasonable于进口液化天然气具备价格优势，这使煤炭消费增长.76，% 为有史以来的第二大增量。在经合组织，美国的煤炭消费由indicator of economic health ;in the EOC ,Dcoal marekts are characteriezd more by competition with other fuels in power于天然气价格走高而出现反弹[，]%而在日益萎缩的欧盟 generation ,driven by politics as much as by prices. 201能源市场，煤炭的降幅超过天然气[2-.]%5，而且还被可再生 3was no ecxeption.能源夺走了市场份额。 煤炭是化石燃料的最后一块拼图。对于发展中经济体而Coal production and trade mirrored these patterns. 言，这种工业化燃料通常是经济健康的合理指标；对于经合Chinese coal production slowed to ,%the lowest 组织，煤炭市场的特点更多表现为在发电部门与其它燃料进increment since 2000. For the first time in 1 5years ,China 行竞争，并受到政治和价格因素的影响，2013年也不例外。did not record the worlds’ largest increase in coal production; Indonesia did. China became the worlds’ largest net coal vimporter in 2012 and cheaper foreign coal made further Oerall ,coal marekts slowed. Consumption growth of .30 %remained below its long term average ;productioninroads into Chinese marekts last year. eSaborne trade growth 0[. ]%8was the weaekst since 2002 ;prices fell in allgrowth slowed t[o 4. %3from 14. %5in 2012 for steam coal] but ,in an environment of falling prices and rising transport regions on des-tocikng and low demand while regional price differentials narrowed with intensifying competition betweencosts ,producers were uqic kto adujst. Production increased most among suppliers with easy access to Pacific marekts ,such as Indonesia .9[4 ]%and uAstralia. 7][%3while 总体而言，煤炭市场发展放缓。消费增长.30，%仍然低production in the -[1 ]%and Columbia .3-[ ]%7declined 于其长期的平均水平；产量增长是2002年以来最疲软的一in line with falling demand in Europe and global price 年[0.]%8；在去库存化和低需求的综合作用下，各区域的价differentials.格均出现下跌，而供应商之间竞争加剧则缩小了区域价差。煤炭的生产和贸易状况也体现出上述模式。中国的煤炭h生产增长放缓至%，为2000年以来的最小增幅。在过去Te big story in coal marekts is China ,where coal accounts for 6 %7of the national energy Coal15年以来，中国首次没有实现世界煤炭生产的最大增长；被 consumption rose by 4 %in 201印尼取而代之。中国在2012年成为世界最大的煤炭净进口 ,3less than half the ten year average .8[ %..] eNw policies to conuqer local pollution国，价格较低的外国煤炭在去年进一步进入中国市场。海上 by shut运输贸易增长放缓[动力煤从2012年的14.降%5至4.]%3，但ting down coali-ntensive production and encouraging coal substitution may have played a part ,but the scale of是，在价格下跌和运输成本上涨的环境下，生产商迅速进行 such measures is limited by the restricted availability of调整。容易进入太平洋市场的供应商产量增长最大，如印尼 natural gas. In China ,the share of the service sector in PDG[.94]%和澳大利亚[.7]%3，而美国.3-[1和]%哥伦比亚.3-[]%7 ec的产量由于欧洲需求下滑及全球价差而出现下降。xeeded that of the industrial sector for the first time last year and so moderating industrial production growth was one contributing factor. tSill ,it remains hard to reconcile the coal slowdown with steady PDG growth.煤炭市场的主力军是中国，中国的煤炭在国家能源结构中的比重达到6。%72013年，中国的煤炭消费增长4，%不足其过去十年平均水平的一半[.8]%3。关停煤炭密集型工厂及鼓励发展煤炭替代燃料等力求减轻当地污染的新政策可能发挥了一定作用，但这些措施的规模受到有限的天然气供应的制约。在中国，服务业在国内生产总值中的比重在去年首次超过工业，因此，工业生产增长放缓是一个驱动因素。然而，如何在抑制煤炭增长的同时保持国内生产总值的稳定仍然是个难题。Elsewhere we find the data corresponding to the fuel switching described in the gas section. In India ,rapidly declining domestic gas production and the price advantage of coal over GNLimports caused coal consumption to rise by .76 ,%the second largest volumetric increase on record. In the EOC ,D SUconsumption rebounded 4[.6 ]%on higher natural gas prices whereas in the Es’U shrinikng energy marekt ,coal contracted 2-[. ]%5faster than gas ,losing marekt share also to renewables. 在其他地方，我们发现与天然气章节所述燃料转换相对BP世界能源统计2014年6月15
time of writing ,all of Japans’ nuclear reactors are offline. oNn fossil fuelsElsewhere ,declines in oKrea ,rkUaine ,pSain and Russia 非化石燃料were offset by growth in the SU2[1 hWT ,2. ]%8and in China 1[ 3hWT ,.]%9核能的贡献最小[%，15万亿瓦时]，仅仅中止了两年yHdro ,reneawbles and nuclear 以来的颓势。后福岛事故时期的安全审查规模开始缩小，停oPwer generation Output changes in 1320 止运行的反应堆数目减少。在日本，核能发电量继续下滑Thousand TWh Annual change ,hTW 002%044[万亿瓦时，%]，而且核电量已经处于低点。在编Hydro Non-fossil share of Other power RH(S) 写本文时，日本所有的核反应堆都已关闭。在其他国家，韩3EU 001国、乌克兰、西班牙和俄罗斯的核电降幅被美国[21万亿瓦Nuclear China %532时，2.]%8和中国[13万亿瓦时，]%9的增幅所抵消。US 01Renewables lGobal hydro growth slipped to 2. ,%9down from 4.% 5%03001-0399179911002500290023012NuclearyHdroeRneawblesin 2012 ,largely because of slowing capacity additions in BP Statistical Review of World Energy China and –how could it be otherwise –global precipitation © BP 2014 patterns :Braizl epxerienced severe drought conditions for the second consecutive year .7-[0 ]%while Europe and 水电，可再生能源和核能!Eurasia saw a second year of generation increase .5[.]%5 发电!3124年发电量变化!lSow growth it may have been ,but it was enough to lift the ྤᅢഥྑ้ ܈ՎࣅLjๆᅢഥྑ้ share of hydropower in global primary energy to a new 440%200ۉ ݥࣅ็ీᇸ݀ۉԲዘrecord of 6..%7ഄ (ᆸዡ) 3100౹ ࢃీ ዐࡔ 235%全球水电的增长率从2012年的%降至%，其主要ெࡔ 0原因是中国的产能扩张放缓以及——非常直观的原因——全1ምิీᇸ 球降水格局：巴西连续第二年经历严重旱灾.7-[0，]%而欧洲030%-100和欧亚大陆的水力发电量连续第二年增加.5[。]%5虽然增长199319972001200520092013ࢃీ ۉ ምิీᇸ BP๘হీᇸཥऺ६ 可能比较缓慢，但足以使水电在全球一次能源中的比重增至 © BP 2014 创纪录的6.。%7aMny will not be aware that the share of nonf-ossil fuels in total power generation was on a declining trend through eRneawbles in opewr generation the 1099s and the early 2000s ,as renewables were too rGowth by region Renewables share of power small to maek a difference and the growth of hydro and Annual change ,hTW Annual change ,% nuclear failed to ekep up with total power generation. nOly 0028%26%1OEUtherover the past decade have faster hydro growth and the ChinaUS5011%22%1USGrowth Worldscaling up of renewables halted the decline. EURH(S) China0014%1%8很多人可能不太清楚，上世纪09年代和21世纪初，非化05%7%4石燃料在发电总量中的比重呈现下降趋势，其原因是可再生%00%0能源的规模太小，无法产生真正的影响，而且水电和核电的8991300280023012300280023012增长未能与发电总量的增长同步。在过去十年里，水电的加BP Statistical Review of World Energy © BP 2014 速增长和可再生能源的迅猛发展中止了上述颓势。可再生能源在发电行业的利用!201 3was a big year for nonf-ossil fuels :growth was above average ,they increased their share of global power 分区域增长!可再生能源占发电百分比!年度变化，十亿千瓦时!年度变化，&!generation to almost one third 23[. ,]%5crowding out fossil 20028%16%其他欧盟!!generation in the E Uand the SUalong the way. 中国!美国!15021%12%美国!增长!世界!欧盟!（右轴）!中国!2013年对非化石燃料而言是重要的一年：其增长超出平10014%8%均水平，在全球发电量中的比重几乎达到三分之一23[.，]%5507%4%在欧盟和美国则抢夺了化石燃料在发电部门的份额。00%0%2003200820131998200320082013uNclear made the smallest contribution 0[. ,%91 5hWT, ]CQ世界能源统计年鉴!!©!CQ!3125!simply by ending two years of decline. PostF-uukshima safety reviews were scaled down and fewer reactors were hTis leaves us with renewable power ,the largest out of operation. In Japan ,generation continued to fall .3-[4 contributor to nonf-ossil growth in Power generation hWT , ,]%but from already etxremely low levels. tA the from renewables grew by 16..%3 hTis was the lowest 16BP世界能源统计2014年6月
growth rate since 200 9while growth in volume terms 1[07 Teh fuel im xand carobn eimssionshWT ]recorded an allt-ime high. Renewables made a larger 燃料结构和碳排放contribution to primary energy growth than natural gas. sA a share of global electricity generation ,renewable power reached .5 %3in 201 ,3up from 2. %7five years earlier. Fuel shares and carbon emissions 可再生能源是2013年非化石燃料增长的最大动力。这是Shares of global primary energy Energy and emissions growth in 1320 2013年非化石燃料增长的最大推手。可再生能源发电量增长Annual change ,% 0%5%616.。%3这是200年9以来的最低增长率，但按量计算的增长OiCarbonl Energy0%410 year average [107太瓦时]达到历史最高水平。可再生能源对一次能源增长%4Coal 的贡献超过天然气。2013年，可再生能源在全球发电中的比0%3%2重从五年前的2.增%7至.5。%3Gas 0%2%00%1Hydro sA a share of total global primary energy ,renewables Nuclear % 2-%39713981399130023012stood at %last year ;adding in biofuels brings theoWrld OECD Non-OECD US EU BP Statistical Review of World Energy renewable total to 2..%7 © BP 2014 去年，可再生能源在全球一次能源中的比重为；%如燃料结构和碳排放 果加上生物燃料，该比重总计为2.。%7全球一次能源比重 2013年能源和碳排放增长 年度变化, % Renewables grew in all regions ,and in almost all 50%6%石油碳排放 countries. hTe E Uas a bloc is still ahead of the SUand China, 40%能源 10年平均 4%in annual increment and in the share of renewables in power 煤炭 30%generation. hTe E Unow receives %of its power from 2%天然气 20%renewable sources. tA the same time ,however ,the EU 0%10%growth rate has slowed ,from %in 2011 ,to 1水电 .80 %in 核能 0%可再生能源 -2%2012 and %5last year ,leaving even the 201 3volume 非经合 19731983199320032013世界 经合组织 美国 欧盟 组织 increment smaller than the 2011 and 2012 increments. It is BP世界能源统计年鉴 © BP 2014 no accident that this slowdown affects most the very region where penetration rates ,and therefore subsidies ,are nA easy way of weaving the annual fuel by fuel changes highest. into a coherent pattern is to loo kat how they affect the global fuel With the ecxeption of gas ,which saw its marekt 所有地区和几乎所有国家的可再生能源都有所发展。在share dip to ,%7the shares of each fuel pushed into 年增量及可再生能源在发电部门中的比重方面，欧盟作为一unfamiliar territory in iOls’ share declined to 23. ,%9a 个整体仍超过美国和中国。欧盟目前有%的电力来自可new low in our data set and etxending a 40 year declining 再生能源。然而与此同时，欧盟的可再生能源增速放缓，从trend that goes bac kto the first oil price shoc kin Coals’ 2011年的%降至2012年的%，进而降至2013年的share too kanother step on the steady upward march that %5，使2013年的增量低于2011年和2012年。并非巧合的had started in 2002 ,when nonEO-C Dindustrialisation 是，受上述增长放缓影响最大的区域是普及率及补贴最高的started in earnest ;its share increased to ,%the highest 地区。since coincidence of slower growth rates with high 以协调一致的模式来分析各种燃料年度变化的简单方法volumetric contribution points at the underlying dilemma. 是探讨其对全球燃料结构的影响。2013年，除天然气的市场Renewables are still subsidiezd. iSezable annual increments 份额降至外%7，其它各种燃料的市场份额都进入了不常reflect the scale renewables have already reached ,while the 见的区间。石油的市场份额降至23.，%9是我们建立数据集slowdown of their growth indicates the weaekning of 以来的新低，并延续了1973年首次石油危机以来连续40年financial support as they scale up and the burden of rising 的下降趋势。随着非经合组织工业化开始火力全开，煤炭的subsidies on society increases.市场份额延续了2002年开始的稳步攀升曲线，并再创新高。煤炭的市场份额增至%，达到1079年以来的最高水同时出现的增速放缓与供应量增加体现出一种根本性困平。境。可再生能源仍得到补贴。可观的年度增量反映了可再生能源已经达到的规模，而增速放缓则说明财政支持随着可再Carbon emissions per energy unit vary widely among 生能源规模的扩大有所减少，同时不断攀升的补贴给社会带fuels ,and so the evolution of the fuel mi xhas implications 来了更沉重的负担。for carbon emissions. In 201 ,3nonf-ossil fuels in power enojyed relatively strong growth ,increasing their aggregate share of primary energy f[rom %to .]%3 eDspite this ,global carbon emissions grew almost as rapidly as total BP世界能源统计2014年6月17
primary energy 2[.1 %versus 2. ]%3because of the rising Energy iabmlancesshare of coal. hTis has been a very important trend over the 能源失衡 years –carbon emissions have grown less rapidly than PDG courtesy of improved energy efficiency ,but they did ekep pace with energy consumption. In other words ,there has been no change in the carbon intensity of the global fuel mix Changes in energy balances over the last decade. In the EOC ,Dcarbon emissions per unit Fossil fuel imbalances Change in imbalances, 2003-1320 of energy declined in 201 3due to the increased share of Mtoe Mtoe 008nonf-ossil fuels. In the nonEO-C ,Dthe rising share of non-0-520-51-0505051052fossil fuels was offset by the rising share of coal and the 004OiluRssiaChinaUSdeclining share of natural gas –and emissions grew at the 0same rate as primary energy .3[1.]%Gas-004China单位能源的碳排放在各种燃料之间差异巨大，因此，燃CoUSal-008uRssia料结构的演变会对碳排放产生影响。2013年，发电部门使用300250027002900211023102BP Statistical Review Note :imablances defined as rof World Energy podcution minsu consmtupion 的非化石燃料实现较为强劲的增长，其在一次能源中的总体 © BP 2014 比重有所提高[从%至%]。尽管如此，由于煤炭的比重不断提高，全球碳排放的增速几乎与一次能源总量增速能源平衡的变化 持平[%对比%]。这是过去多年里出现的非常重要的化石能源供需不平衡 能源不平衡的变化, 2003-2013 趋势——在能效提高的推动下，碳排放的增速低于国内生产ӥྤܖᆳړଉ ӥྤܖᆳړଉ 总值的增速，但与能源消费的增速同步。换而言之，全球燃800-250-150-5050150250料结构中的碳强度在过去十年里没有发生变化。由于非化石400Oil燃料的比重提高，经合组织2013年单位能源的碳排放有所下ܭஆຯ ዐࡔ ெࡔ 降。但在非经合组织，非化石燃料比重的提高被煤炭比重的0Gas提高和天然气比重的下降抵消——排放增速与一次能源增速-400ዐࡔ 持平.3[1。]%Coெࡔ al-800ܭஆຯ 200320052007200920112013hTe net result is that carbon emissions continue to rise Ԣጀ; փೝ࢚ۨᅭྺׂଉ३ඁၩݯଉ BP๘হీᇸཥऺ६ © BP 2014 too fast for comfort –restrained by improving energy efficiency ,but not affected by changes in the global fuel eLt us conclude by returning to one of the issues raised In the ,SUfor eaxmple ,much of the large decline in at the beginning –the linakges between energy and the emissions recorded in 2012 was reversed last year as the economy ;and to an eaxmple of how the remarakble shift in power sector switched bac kto coal and away from gas. physical energy balances which has occurred over the last From the dimensions of the system ,it is easy to see how decade will affect the global economy. even small switches from coal to gas could dramatically impact global emissions growth. 最后，让我们回到本文开头所提出的一个问题——能源与经济之间的关联性；并回顾一个实例，即实物能源平衡在上述情况的最终结果是碳排放仍然增长过快而且令人不过去十年所发生的沧桑巨变对全球经济产生了什么影响。安——能效提高发挥了一定作用，但全球燃料结构的变化未能对碳排放产生积极影响。例如在美国，随着发电部门再次China ,the SUand Russia are the worlds’ top three 青睐煤炭而摒弃天然气，2012年实现的大幅减排在去年被逆consumers and producers of energy today –in this order, 转。从系统的各个方面来看，很容易发现，即使小规模煤改and for both consumption and production. Russia is the 气也能极大地影响到全球排放增长。worlds’ largest epxorter of fossil fuels ,while the SUand China are the second and third biggest importers a(fter hTe one region reaping benefits from changes in the fuel Japan.)mi xwas the E Uwhere strong growth of renewables and hydro contributed to declines in both coal and gas use in 中国、美国和俄罗斯是当今世界的三大能源消费国和生power. E Uemissions in 201 3were more than 1 %3below 产国——排序如上，消费和生产的排名次序都是如此。俄罗their 1099 level –and ,liek oil ,almost bac kto where they 斯是世界最大的化石燃料出口国，而美国和中国则分别是第were in For the world as a whole ,however ,emissions 二和第三大进口国（排名在日本之后）。are %55above the 1099 the last ten years ,physical energy imbalances for 从燃料结构变化中受益的一个区域是欧盟，其可再生能these countries –simply the difference between domestic 源和水电的强劲增长促使发电部门的煤炭和天然气使用量双production and consumption –have shifted. lGobally ,the S U双下降。2013年，欧盟的排放量比1990年的水平低13%以had the biggest increase in oil and gas production –and the 上——而且与石油的情况类似，碳排放几乎恢复至169年9的largest decline in oil and coal consumption. China had the 水平。然而，就全世界整体而言，排放仍比1099年的水平高biggest increase in coal production and in the consumption 出。%5518BP世界能源统计2014年6月
of every single fossil fuel. Russia had the second biggest中一个影响是国际收支平衡效应。全球能源贸易约占全球货 物与服务贸易的1%5，国家能源平衡状况的变化通常会对任increment in oil production. 何国家的国际收支平衡造成严重影响。在过去十年里，这些国家的实物能源平衡状况—即国内生产与消费之差——发生了转变。从全球来看，美国的石油In the ,SUenergy imports still maek up about half of the 和天然气生产增幅最大——石油和煤炭消费则出现最大降trade deficit. oHwever ,on the bac kof diminishing oil and gas 幅。中国的煤炭生产及各种化石燃料消费增幅最大。俄罗斯imports ,this deficit is shrinikng fast. China ,on the other 的石油生产增量位列次席。hand ,sees increasing import dependence eating into its trade surplus ;despite rapid economic growth ,energy oimports as a share of PDG almost tripled from 200 3to Wrikng out the net results of changes in physical production and consumption shows Chinas’ deficit for oil and gas worsening by almost eaxctly the same magnitude by在美国，能源进口仍约占贸易赤字的一半。然而，随着 which the SUdeficit improved. s美国石油和天然气进口的减少，这一赤字正在迅速缩小。另A a result ,the Chinese primary energy deficit overtoo kthat of the SUfor the first一方面，中国不断增强的进口依存度减少了其贸易盈余；虽 然经济增长迅猛，但2013年能源进口在中国国内生产总值中time last year. Russias’ surplus improved for every fossil fuel over this period ,so far allowing it to maintain its position as所占比重几乎是200年3的三倍。 the worlds’ largest holder of an energy has a siezable trade surplus .5[ %7of PDG ]due to 对实物生产与消费变化差值的计算结果表明，中国的油its energy epxorts. oHwever ,if epxressed as a share of PDG, 气赤字增幅与美国的赤字减幅几乎完全相同。因此，中国的the none-nergy related deficit doubled over the last ten years 一次能源赤字在去年首次超过美国。在同一时期，俄罗斯各while energy epxorts grew in line with PDG. If epxressed as 种化石燃料的盈余进一步增加，使其迄今为止保持了世界最a share of PDG ,Russias’ overall trade surplus is falling fast. 大的能源盈余国地位。俄罗斯由于其能源出口而拥有巨额贸易盈余[国内生产总值的.5]%7。但是，如果从在国内生产总值中所占比重的角度进行分析，非能源相关的赤字在过去十年里翻了一番，而能rTade balances and energy 源出口与国内生产总值同步增长。如果从在国内生产总值中SU China Russia 所占比重进行分析，俄罗斯的总体贸易盈余正在迅速下降。rTillion $US rTillion $US rTillion $US . goods & one would have asekd any economist over the last ten . balanceyears for potential sources of trouble to the global economy, . trade imbalances would have loomed large in the . From todays’ point of view it seems as if global balances ,by eating into the SUdeficit as well as into Chinese surplus ,are becoming a part of the :incldues data from EC CIand ohTmson Retuers DatastreaBP Statistical Review of World Energy m © BP 2014 如果有人在过去十年就影响全球经济的潜在因素询问任何一位经济学家，全球贸易失衡一定是主要答案。从今天的贸易差额和能源!角度来看，全球能源平衡——通过减少美国赤字和中国盈余——正在成为解决方案的组成部分。美国!中国!俄罗斯!万亿美元!万亿美元!万亿美元!其他货物和服务!能源!净平衡差额!来源;!包括来自DFJD和Uipntpo!Sfvufst!Ebubtusfbn的数据!CQ世界能源统计年鉴!!©!CQ!3125!hTese shifts in physical energy balances do have macroeconomic implications. nOe of them is a global balance of payment effect. lGobal energy trade amounts to roughly 1 %5of the global trade in goods and services and changes in national energy balances typically have a siezable effect on any countries balance of payments. 这些实物能源平衡状况的变化确实影响到宏观经济。其BP世界能源统计2014年6月19
索事实及原因的旅程中，正是严格的数据考查工作提供了答oCnclusion案。这是我要说到的另一个方面，在此领域开展更多的工作结语有利于整个行业以及对我们所从事工作的理解。nAd finally ,there is an old adage ,which always creeps up in the end –marekts matter. It comes with an addendum, Conclusion however –if you let them. In global energy and energy politics ,perhaps much more than elsewhere in policy Energy in 1320 maikng ,we see both sides of this coin. hTis is not what the •Energy and the economy – a tow awy relationship tSatistical Review is about ,but it is what falls out of the data •When things happen – ask the data we collect –every year. •aMrkets owrk – if you let them 最后，正如总是作为结语的古老格言所述——市场为王。但是不要忽略这句格言的附言：你得让市场发挥作用。与决策所涉的任何其他领域相比，我们更能在全球能源和能BP Statistical Review of World Energy 源政治中见证事物的正反两面。虽然并非能源统计年鉴的初 © BP 2014 衷，但这是我们每年收集的客观数据揭示的结论。结语!2013๘হీᇸ •ీᇸࢅঢ়ष?ມၠ၎࠲ •ీᇸ݀ቛۯༀ?༹၄ሞຕዐ •ඟׇࣩ݀ፕᆩ?ׇ৽ࣷഐፕᆩ BP๘হీᇸཥऺ६ © BP 2014 hWere does this leave us ?I have done this for nine years now ,so please allow for a short personal conclusion. 我们能够从这些事实中提炼出什么要素？迄今为止，我已连续9年进行此类分析，因此谨在此提供简短的个人意见。Energy goes directly or indirectly into any type of economic activity. It clearly matters ,and the lin kto the economy is not a one way street. But few economists devote time to it. By taikng energy matters out of this wider contetx ,the discussion suffers and often does not reflect the attention this topic deserves.能源直接或间接地参与各种类型的经济活动。这显然十分重要，并且能源与经济之间并非只有单向关联。但鲜有经济学家在此问题上投入时间。如果脱离上述广泛背景看待能源问题，相关的讨论就会受到影响而且通常无法反映出本专题理应得到的关注。eScond ,every year we encounter weird twists and turns in the data. nAd every year ,in the ojurney to find out what happened and why ,it is rigorous interrogation of the data which delivers answers. hTis is another aspect ,where more wor kcould benefit us as an industry ,and those who need to understand the wor kwe do.其次，我们每年都看到数据的诡异波折。每一年，在探20BP世界能源统计2014年6月
