궷쁉뫞뉺뻇돸 닄꒭ꣷ 닄ꑔ듁 2003꙾11ꓫ Journal of Risk Management Nov. 2003 -427 ∗ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩뭐뚡놵뿄뫊럾 Subordinated Debt and Indirect Market Discipline ** ***ꡌꟓꭩ (Chih-Yung Wang) 뱂뫻땘 (Victor W. Liu) 멋₭? ꖻ곣ꡳꯘꗟꑀ귓ꚳ쏶믈ꛦꭈꗎ궷쁉ꪺ끦뿯뻜볒ꮬꅁ놴끑믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺꡍ떦ꅃ떲ꩇ엣ꗜꭈꗎ궷쁉룻ꝃꪺ믈ꛦꅁ꣤땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뻷뉶룻낪ꅃꙝ결Ꙣ꣤땯ꛦꯡꅁ뛅꣩ꖫ돵삳ꪺꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩둆꺧룻ꝃꅁꑀ꿫꙳듚ꓡ뻚룻ꝃꪺ뛅꣩둆꺧ꅁ뇀뷗꣤결ꭈꗎ궷쁉룻ꝃꪺ믈ꛦꅁꭋ놵꣼룻ꝃꪺ꙳듚ꝑ뉶ꅃ믈ꛦꭋꕩ궰ꝃ꣤샧륂ꚨꖻꅃꙝꚹ곣ꡳ볒ꮬ뮡ꧺ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩꣣뚡놵뿄뫊럾껄ꩇꅃ 쏶쇤뗼ꅇꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅁ뚡놵뿄뫊럾ꅃ Abstract Based on the banks’ credit risks, we have built an adverse selection model to examine banks’ policies when issuing subordinated debts. The result shows that banks with lower credit risks are more likely to issue subordinated debts, since after the issuance, the yields of these debts are lower. When depositors observe the lower yields of the subordinated debts, they would presume that these banks have lower credit risks. As a result, banks with lower credit risks can decrease their operational costs by issuing subordinated debts. This model has demonstrated that the market can discipline banks indirectly through the issuance of subordinated debts. Keywords: Subordinated Debts, Indirect Market Discipline. ∗ Ꝁ띐쇂냪곬라NSC-91-2416-H-110-028맯ꖻ곣ꡳꪺꓤ꯹ꅁ볆ꛬ냎ꙗ뱦걤ꥥ귻맯ꖻꓥꪺꯘ쒳ꅃ ** 냪ꗟ꒤ꑳꑪ뻇ꗸ뫞꡴ꅁDepartment of Business Management National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan. *** 냪ꗟ꒤ꑳꑪ뻇ꗸ뫞꡴ꅁProfessor, Department of Business Management, National Sun Yat-sen University, Kaohsiung Taiwan.
412ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩뭐뚡놵뿄뫊럾 1. 뫼뷗 ꭈꗎ궷쁉걏믈ꛦ꧓뻡ꪺ궷쁉꒤ꅁ돌궫굮ꪺꑀ뚵ꅃꙕ뫘뿄뫊럾걆떦뎣Ᶎ뇦륆꣬궰ꝃ믈ꛦꭈꗎ궷쁉ꪺꕜ꿠ꅃꛓ믈ꛦꪺꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩Ꙣ꫱꙾꣓뿄궲ꓨ껗녯꣬궫뗸ꅁ걏ꙝ결ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩녡꣓ꪺ뿄뫊럾껄ꩇꕩꕈꚳ껄궰ꝃ믈ꛦꪺꭈꗎ궷쁉ꅃꙢꖻ곣ꡳ꒤ꅁ녎ꕈ믈ꛦ꧓뻡꒣Ꙑꪺꭈꗎ궷쁉결냲슦ꅁ놴끑Ꙣ꒣녪꣮믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ놡ꑕꅁꭈꗎ궷쁉땻ꯗ꒣Ꙑꪺ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺꡍ떦ꅃ떲ꩇ땯뉻ꅁ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅁ꣣뚡놵뿄뫊럾ꕜ꿠ꅃꑝ둎걏쏒ꧺꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뻷뉶ꅁ라ꓱꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦ꣓녯낪ꅃ꒣Ꙑ궷쁉땻ꯗꪺ믈ꛦꅁ라ꚳ꒣Ꙑꪺ륷듁뛅꣩둆꺧꙳듚ꝑ꺧ꅁ뙩ꛓ땯뒧뿄뚡놵뫊럾ꪺꕜ꿠ꅃ ꖻ곣ꡳꝑꗎꑀ귓끦뿯뻜ꪺ볒ꮬꅁ놴끑꒣Ꙑꭈꗎ궷쁉땻ꯗ믈ꛦꅁ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뻷뉶ꅁꕈꚹ뮡ꧺ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뚡놵뿄뫊럾껄ꩇꅃꗑ꧳믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩꒧ꯡꅁ뛅꣩둆꺧ꕩꕈ걍ꕘ믈ꛦꪺ궷쁉땻ꯗꅁ뙩ꛓ뱶암ꑀ꿫꙳듚ꓡ굮ꡄꪺꝑ꺧ꅁꛓ엜ꑆ믈ꛦ뻣귓ꪺ뿄룪ꚨꖻꅃ믈ꛦꙢꛒ뱻땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩녡꣓ꪺ뿄룪ꚨꖻ뱶암ꑕꅁꭈꗎ궷쁉땻ꯗ꒣Ꙑꪺ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뻷뉶라꒣곛ꙐꅃꛓLang and Robertsonꅝ2002ꅞ끷맯과냪냓띾믈ꛦ꧒Ꝁꪺ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ놡뷕걤ꅁꭋ엣ꗜ꒣Ꙑ꧊뷨ꪺ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ쁗뉶ꚳ꧒꒣Ꙑꅃꖻ곣ꡳ떲뷗ꑝꖿꙮꥉ삳ꚹ맪쏒떲뷗ꅃ 결ꑆꭏ앀ꑀ꿫꙳듚ꓡꪺ앶ꝑꅁ뵔ꭏ뿄엩꡴ꪺ쎭ꥷꅁ뿄뫞꣮뻷멣뇄꣺ꑆꙕ뚵ꓨꚡꅁꟆ뇦맯믈ꛦ꿠륆꣬ꚳ껄뿄뫊럾ꅃꑀ꿫녠ꢣꪺꓨꚡꕝ걁믈ꛦ띾냈궭꣮ꅂ녪꣮꧊꙳듚ꭏ쁉ꅂ룪ꖻ빁ꢬ굮ꡄ떥ꅃ뉻Ꙣ덯뛇닎ꪺ뿄뫊럾ꓨꚡꅁ뎣ꚳ꣤꿊쉉ꅁ때ꩫ륆꣬ꞹ과뫊럾ꪺ껄ꩇꅃDewatripont and Tiroleꅝ1994ꅞꭋ뻣뉺ꕘ뛇닎뿄뫊럾ꓨꚡꪺ꿊쉉ꅃꕈ믈ꛦ띾냈궭꣮ꛓꢥꅁꙢꗘꭥ쑶ꪧ뽅꽐ꪺ샴맒ꅁ굙걏쑾쓲맯믈ꛦ띾냈녪ꕛ궭꣮ꅁ녎뱶암믈ꛦꪺꗍ꙳ꅃ뿄뫞꣮뻷멣ꯜ쏸ꙁ돦뽗ꝑꗎ띾냈뫞꣮ꪺꓨꚡꚳ껄뫞뉺믈ꛦꅃꛓ녪꣮꧊꙳듚ꭏ쁉ꣃꡓꚳ결믈ꛦ녡꣓ꯜꙮꪺ뫞뉺뮤ꙝ껄ꩇꅁ믈ꛦ꒴깥꧶늣ꗍ륄뱷궷쁉ꪺ냝썄ꅃ룪ꖻ빁ꢬꪺ굮ꡄ덱녠라궱셻궷쁉꧊룪늣ꪺ군뫢냝썄ꅁ꒣꿠뿅뙱ꕘ믈ꛦ꽵맪ꪺ궷쁉ꅃ ꧒ꕈ뉻Ꙣ덜Ꙩ띳ꪺ뿄뫊럾ꓨ껗ꅁ꣒꙰Benston et alꅝ.1986ꅞꅂCooper and Fraserꅝ1988ꅞꅂEvanoffꅝ1993ꅞꅁ뎣Ᶎ뇦ꓞ뙩믈ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩꧒녡꣓ꪺꖫ돵덗뵤ꑏ뙱ꅁ땯뒧ꚳ껄뫊럾믈ꛦꪺꕜ꿠ꅃ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꕩꕈ뒣꣑ꪽ놵뫊럾ꅝDirect disciplineꅞꕈ뚡놵뫊럾ꅝIndirect disciplineꅞ꣢뚵ꖫ돵덗뵤ꕜ꿠ꅃꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺꪽ놵뫊럾ꕜ꿠걏땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩꿠뒣꣑ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅앶ꑈꚳ껄뫞뉺뮤ꙝꅁꙝ결ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅앶ꑈꣃꡓꚳ꣼꣬꙳듚ꭏ쁉
궷쁉뫞뉺뻇돸 413닄꒭ꣷ 닄ꑔ듁 2003꙾11ꓫ ꪺꭏ믙ꅁꕂ꣤ꡄ쁶뚶ꛬꚸ꧳ꑀ꿫꙳듚ꓡꑀ꿫뛅앶ꑈꅁ꣏녯ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅앶ꑈꚳ뫊럾믈ꛦꪺ뮤ꙝꅁ꒣엽믈ꛦ뇄꣺륌ꯗꭟ쁉ꪺꛦ결ꅃꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뚡놵뫊럾ꕜ꿠ꅁ걏땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩꿠뒣꣑ꑀ꿫꙳듚ꓡꑀ뚵궷쁉뿅뙱볐ꅁꙝ결ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ둆꺧뭐믈ꛦꪺ궷쁉볉앓땻ꯗꚳꯜꑪꪺ쏶ꭙꅁ꧒ꕈꑀ꿫꙳듚ꓡ둎ꕩ덺륌맯ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩둆꺧ꪺ왛맮ꅁ셁룑믈ꛦꕩ꿠ꪺꭈꗎ궷쁉ꅁ뙩ꛓ굮ꡄꙘ뉺ꪺ꙳듚ꝑ꺧ꅃꛓ믈ꛦ결궰ꝃ꣤뿄룪ꚨꖻꅁ라덝ꩫ놱꣮꣤꙳듚ꝑ꺧ꅁ뙩ꛓ놱꣮꣤ꭈꗎ궷쁉ꅁ덯ꭋ걏덺륌ꑀ꿫꙳듚ꓡꪺ뚡놵뿄뫊럾ꅃ ꕴꕾ쇙ꚳ덜Ꙩ뿄궲ꓨ껗ꕄ녩ꅁꕵ걏꧱뱥ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꙃ결믈ꛦꪺꙘ껦ꛛꚳ룪ꖻ걏꒣냷ꪺꅁꛓ삳룓녪꣮굮ꡄ믈ꛦ굮땯ꛦꑀꥷ볆뙱ꅂꑀꥷ뇸ꗳꪺꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺꅃ쒴꙰Benston et al.ꅝ1986ꅞꅂCooper and Fraserꅝ1988ꅞꅂCalomirisꅝ1997ꅞꅂEvanoffꅝ1993ꅞꅂKeehnꅝ1989ꅞꅂLitan and Rauchꅝ1997ꅞꅂWallꅝ1989ꅞ떥뒣ꕘꪺ뿄궲ꯘ쒳ꅁ꓀ꝏꕘ믈ꛦꖲ뚷땯ꛦ꣤꙳듚볆뙱3ꉍ걏궷쁉꧊룪늣ꪺ1ꉍꛜ5ꉍꪺꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅃꛓ덯ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ꣬듁듁뚡땯ꛦ쁗뉶ꞡ믝닅Ꙙꑀꥷ뇸ꗳꅁ릳걏Evanoffꅝ1993ꅞ뒣ꕘ믈ꛦꡃꕢ꙾둎ꖲ뚷땯ꛦ뎡꓀띳ꪺꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅂLitan and Rauchꅝ1997ꅞ뒣ꕘ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꪺꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ꣬듁듁뚡ꛜꓖ굮ꑀ꙾ꕈꑗꅁꛓꕂꡃꑀꥵ뎣ꖲ뚷ꚳ뎡꓀뛅꣩꣬듁ꅃꚹꕾBenston et al.ꅝ1986ꅞ뭻결뎡꓀ꪺꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩뚷결ꕩ뷦Ꙟ뛅꣩ꅁꛓCalomirisꅝ1997ꅞꯘ쒳돌ꙮ녎ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩뷦떹꣣뗻믹꿠ꑏꪺꅁ뽗ꗟꪺ냪ꕾ끝냈뻷멣ꅃ꒣뷗걏꧱뱥ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꕩꕈꙃ결믈ꛦ뎡꓀ꪺꙘ껦ꛛꚳ룪ꖻꪺ덗ꥷꅁ걏녪꣮굮ꡄ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꑀꥷ볆뙱ꪺꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅁ뎣Ꙣ꧳Ᶎ뇦꿠냷ꕈꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩녡꣓ꪺꖫ돵덗뵤ꑏ뙱맯믈ꛦ뙩ꛦ뿄뫊럾ꅃ ꖻ곣ꡳ녎뮡ꧺ믈ꛦ녪꣮땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺꖲ굮ꅁꙐ껉ꯘ쒳믈ꛦ굮땯ꛦꑀꥷ볆뙱ꪺꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅃꕈꦹꚳ쏶믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ곣ꡳꅁꑪꙨ걏끷맯냪ꕾ믈ꛦꪺꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩둆꺧뭐믈ꛦ궷쁉ꪬꩰ뙩ꛦ곛쏶맪쏒ꅁ룻꿊ꕆ뉺뷗꧊ꪺ놴끑ꅃ뛈ꚳꪺ뉺뷗꧊ꓤ꯹ꅁꑝꑪ뎣걏끷맯ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺꪽ놵뫊럾껄ꩇ뙩ꛦ놴끑ꅃꖻ곣ꡳ녎끷맯믈ꛦ뚡놵뫊럾껄ꩇ덝ꥷꑀ뉺뷗볒ꮬꅃ낲덝믈ꛦ뚡ꕄ굮ꪺ깴ꝏꙢ꧳꣤꧓뻡ꪺꭈꗎ궷쁉꒣Ꙑꅁꕈꭋ녍ꩠ꧳놴끑믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺꡍ떦ꅃ떲ꩇ엣ꗜ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩꣣ꚳ뚡놵뿄뫊럾껄ꩇꅃ ꖻ곣ꡳ쇶땍ꕵ덝ꥷꚨ끦뿯뻜볒ꮬꅁ믈ꛦꪺꭈꗎ궷쁉덝결ꕾꗍ떹ꥷꅃ끦뿯뻜ꪺꚡꕩꕈ뗸결걏륄뱷궷쁉ꪺ떲ꩇꅃ꧒ꕈꙢꖻ볒ꮬ꒤ꕘꑀ귓꿠룑ꡍ끦뿯뻜냝썄ꪺ뫊럾ꑵ꣣ꅁꑝ쇴ꝴ뗛맯믈ꛦꪺ륄뱷궷쁉냝썄꣣ꚳ껸ꯚꝀꗎꅁꑝ둎걏뮡ꅁ믈ꛦ결궰ꝃ뛅꣩둆꺧ꅁꝴꚳ뮤ꙝꕨ궰ꝃ꣤ꭈꗎ궷쁉ꅃ ꖻꓥ닄ꑇ뎡꓀녎꒶닐ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ곛쏶ꓥ쑭Ꙟ압ꅃ닄ꑔ뎡ꗷ결볒ꮬ덝ꥷꪺ놡ꅃ닄ꕼ뎡ꗷ결뇀뻉ꕘꪺꥒ썄ꥍ꣤쏒ꧺꅃ닄꒭뎡꓀결ꖻꓥ떲뷗ꅃ
414ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩뭐뚡놵뿄뫊럾 2.ꓥ쑭Ꙟ압 ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩걏ꡄ쁶뚶ꛬꕵ쁵꧳ꩆꪺ뛅꣩ꅁ덱녠걏믈ꛦ꧒땯ꛦꪺ꒽ꕱ뛅ꅃ냪ꅵ믈ꛦ룪ꖻ빁ꢬ꧊뫞뉺뿬ꩫꅶ닄ꑇ뇸덗ꥷꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅇ뛅꣩꯹ꚳꑈ꒧꣼쁶뚶ꛬꚸ꧳믈ꛦ꧒ꚳ꙳듚ꑈ꣤ꕌꑀ꿫뛅앶ꑈꅃ 냪뉻ꛦꪺꩫꕏꅁꝑꗎ꧱뱥믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ덗ꥷꅁꕈ꧱뱥엽ꚸ뚶뛅꣩ꚨ결믈ꛦꙘ껦룪ꖻꪺ덗ꥷꅁ릪쁹믈ꛦ꿠Ꙩ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅁ엽ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꕩꕈ면ꟳ궫굮ꪺꢤꛢꅃ릳걏냪ꅵ믈ꛦ땯ꛦ뿄뛅꣩뿬ꩫꅶ덗ꥷꚳꑕꙃ놡꒧ꑀꅁ꒣녯ꗓ돸땯ꛦ뿄뛅꣩ꅇ(1)돆ꧨꝢ녢뒣ꙃ꒣ꢬꅆ(2)ꗓ돸땯ꛦꭥꑀ꙾ꯗꚳ닖뽮솫띬ꅆ(3)ꗓ돸ꭥꑀꥵ륏꧱ꓱ뉶낪꧳ꗾ엩뿄뻷멣륏꧱ꓱ뉶ꖭꞡ볆ꅆ?4)ꗓ돸땯ꛦꭥꑀ꙾꒺ꚳ띳ꕸ맴돼믵꒸ꕈꑗ뭒맺껗ꗳ땯ꗍꅃ걏믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩꒧ꗘꪺꅁꭙ결끴Ꙙ신빐Ꝣ녢ꛓ교ꛛꚳ룪ꖻ뭐궷쁉꧊룪늣ꓱ뉶ꝃ꧳믈ꛦꩫ덗ꥷ볐럇ꅁ녯꒣꣼ꭥ뚵닄ꑇ듚닄ꑔ듚덗ꥷ꒧궭꣮ꅃꚹꕾ냪ꅵ믈ꛦ룪ꖻ빁ꢬ꧊뫞뉺뿬ꩫꅶ덗ꥷꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꕩꕈꙃ결믈ꛦ뎡꓀ꪺꙘ껦ꛛꚳ룪ꖻꅃ믈ꛦꑷ땯ꛦ꒧듁ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꕵ굮닅Ꙙꅇ땯ꛦ듁궭꒭꙾ꕈꑗꅂ땯ꛦ듁궭돌ꯡ꒭꙾ꡃ꙾ꛜꓖ앵뒣ꛊ꓀꒧ꑇꑑꪺ뇸ꗳꅁꭋꕩꝀ결믈ꛦꪺ닄ꑇ쏾룪ꖻꅃꚹꕾ믈ꛦꑷ땯ꛦ땵듁ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꕵ굮닅Ꙙꅇ때뻡ꭏꅁꕂ듚뚵쎺ꢬꅂ땯ꛦ듁궭꣢꙾ꕈꑗꅂꙢ곹ꥷ쁶쇙ꓩ듁ꭥ꒣녯뒣ꭥ쁶쇙ꅝ롧ꕄ뫞뻷쏶껖귣꒣Ꙣꚹ궭ꅞꅁꕈ룼ꧺ꙰ꩇꙝ뛅꣩꽓ꝏꪺꕉ꺧쇙ꖻ꣏믈ꛦ뻣엩ꪺ룪ꖻꝃ꧳돌ꝃ룪ꖻ믝ꡄ껉ꅁ녎낱ꓮꝑ꺧꺧ꖻ꒧ꓤꕉꪺ뇸ꗳꅁꭋꕩꝀ결믈ꛦꪺ닄ꑔ쏾룪ꖻꅃ덯덗ꥷ뎣ꚳ릪쁹믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺꝀꗎꅃ걆ꦲ꒧꧒ꕈ굮꣮굱덯덗ꥷꅁ릪쁹믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅁꕄ굮ꪺ뉺ꗑꭋ걏Ᶎ뇦ꝑꗎꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩꧒녡꣓ꪺꖫ돵뫊럾ꕜ꿠ꅁꣳꝕ걆ꦲ뙩ꛦꚳ껄ꪺ뿄뫊럾ꅃꙝꚹꙢ걆ꦲꩫ덗ꪺ썐롪ꑕꅁꗘꭥ냪꒺믈ꛦꙢꕛ덴ꖴ껸Ꝣ녢몡ꢬ룪ꖻ빁ꢬ뉶껉ꅁꙨꝑꗎ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺꓨꚡꅃ녎꣓땯ꛦ깡볆썂냷Ꙩꕂ냷낪껉ꅁꖫ돵뫊럾ꕜ꿠ꭋꕩ꿠땯뒧ꅃ Ꙣ쏶꧳ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩뚡놵뫊럾ꕜ꿠ꓨ궱ꅁ냪ꕾꑷ롧낵ꑆ덜Ꙩꚳ쏶ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩돸륓ꕈ믈ꛦ궷쁉땻ꯗꪺ쏶셰맪쏒ꅁ꣒꙰ꅇFlannery and Sorescuꅝ1996ꅞꅂDeyoung, et al.ꅝ1998ꅞꪺ맪쏒엣ꗜꙢꡓꚳ걆ꦲꪺ꧓뻡띬ꖢꭏ쏒ꑕꅁ뛅꣩ꪺꚬ꽱뉶뭐믈ꛦꪺ궷쁉뿅뙱귈ꚳ엣뗛ꪺ쏶ꭙꅃJagtiani et al. ꅝ1999ꅞꪺ맪쏒ꕘ꒣뷗걏뽗ꗟ믈ꛦ걏놱꒽ꕱꑕꪺꑬ믈ꛦꅁꖫ돵ꪺ뵔꿠맯꧳궷쁉ꓴ럇뙩ꛦ뗻믹ꅃMorgan and Stirohꅝ2000ꅞ끷맯1993-1998믈ꛦ꧒땯ꛦꪺ띳뛅뙩ꛦ곣ꡳꅃꕌ귌땯뉻ꖫ돵ꪺ뵔끷맯꒣Ꙑ궷쁉ꓴ럇뙩ꛦ뗻믹ꅁ럭믈ꛦ뇄꣺룻ꭟ쁉ꪺꛦ결껉ꅁ꣤뛅꣩ꖲ뚷ꕉꕘ룻낪ꪺ돸쁶ꅃJagtiani and Lemieux ꅝ2001ꅞ끷맯믈ꛦ꽽늣ꭥ12ꥵ꒧꒺ꪺ뛅꣩ꥷ믹뙩ꛦ맪쏒곣ꡳꅁ땯뉻ꪺ뵔
궷쁉뫞뉺뻇돸 415닄꒭ꣷ 닄ꑔ듁 2003꙾11ꓫ ꙳Ꙣ녪꽐ꪺꖫ돵덗뵤ꅃGropp et al.ꅝ2002ꅞ엣ꗜ믈ꛦ뛅꣩ꪺ둆꺧ꝑꗎ뿯뻜앶ꓨꚡ맯믈ꛦ늼돸륓덝뫢ꪺ볐ꅁ뎣걏륷듺믈ꛦ귋뎬궷쁉ꪺꚳꗎ볐ꅃ꒣륌꣢륷듺ꪺ듁뚡꽓꧊꒣ꙐꅃFan et al. ꅝ2002ꅞꓱ룻꒣Ꙑ쏾ꮬꪺꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩꣤돸돸륓뭐믈ꛦ궷쁉ꪺ쏶ꭙꅁ떲ꩇ엣ꗜ꒣뷗걏ꥷꝑ뉶걏꽂냊ꝑ뉶ꪺꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ듞ꝑ뉶ꅁ뎣걏꿠ꚳ껄엣ꗜ믈ꛦ궷쁉ꪺ끔뢹ꅃ ꑪꧨ꣓뮡과냪Ꙣ90꙾ꕎ꒧ꯡ꧒낵ꪺ맪쏒곣ꡳꅁ뎣ꓤ꯹뛅꣩ꪺ돸륓라걍믈ꛦꖻꢭꪺ궷쁉땻ꯗꅃ럭믈ꛦꪺ궷쁉땻ꯗ뙖낪껉ꅁ꣤뛅꣩ꪺ돸륓ꑝ둎뙖낪ꅃ꒣륌Ꙣꕸ왗ꭨ꿊ꕆ곛쏶ꪺ맪쏒곣ꡳꅃ 곛맯꧳맪쏒곣ꡳꑗꅁꚳ쏶ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뿄뫊럾ꕜ꿠ꪺ뉺뷗뇀뻉곣ꡳꅁꭋ엣녯곛럭림ꕆꅃDewatripont and Tiroleꅝ1994ꅞꕘ믈ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꕩꕈ꓀뻡뿄뫞꣮뻷쏶ꪺ뫊럾ꗴ냈ꅁ걏Ꙣ믈ꛦ셚껄륌깴껉ꅁꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꑝ때뫊럾ꝀꗎꅃNivorozhkinꅝ2001ꅞꕈꚳ앶꽱ꅝcontingent-claimꅞ뗻믹ꪺ걛멣ꅁ꓀꩒ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅궰ꝃ륄뱷궷쁉뒣꣑뫞꣮ꚳ쏶믈ꛦ궷쁉곛쏶룪끔ꪺꢤꛢꅃꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺꖫ돵덗뵤ꑏ뙱뭐쁵ꗽ뛅꣩룲꽽늣ꚨꖻꪺ볆뙱ꚳ쏶ꅃꙢ꽓ꥷꪬꩰꑕꅁꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ믹껦ꕩꕈ뒣꣑ꑀ늼믹껦꧒때ꩫ뒣꣑ꚳ쏶믈ꛦ룪늣믹귈ꪺ룪끔ꅃBlumꅝ2002ꅞꕘꕵꚳꙢ믈ꛦꗽ꒹뿕궷쁉땻ꯗ곉꧳ꑀꥷ땻ꯗ꒧꒺ꅁꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩곛맯꧳꙳듚ꭏ쁉ꟳ꿠듮ꓖ믈ꛦꪺ궷쁉ꅃ굙걏믈ꛦ꒣꿠꧓뿕궷쁉땻ꯗ곉꧳ꑀꥷ땻ꯗ꒧꒺ꅁ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꛓ뱗ꕛꑆ믈ꛦꪺ궷쁉ꛦ결ꅃ 둎곛쏶뉺뷗ꓥ쑭뎡꓀ꅁ낣ꑆBlumꅝ2002ꅞ끷맯ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺꝑ뉶ꓴ럇뭐믈ꛦꪺ꧓뻡궷쁉땻ꯗ뙩ꛦ곣ꡳꕾꅁ꣤ꕌ뎣걏끷맯ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺꪽ놵뫊럾ꕜ꿠뙩ꛦ뉺뷗놴끑ꅃBlumꅝ2002ꅞ끑뷗믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꯡꅁꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꕵ꣼꣬ꖫ돵뗻믹껉ꅁ믈ꛦ라덝ꩫ궰ꝃꖻꢭꭈꗎ궷쁉ꅁꕈ궰ꝃ꣤뛅꣩ꝑ뉶ꓴ럇ꅃꛓꖻ곣ꡳꭨ걏ꕈ믈ꛦ걏ꝟ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺꡍ떦냝썄ꕘ땯ꅁꣃ뭻결ꡃ듁ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뗻믹뎣라꣼꣬ꭥ듁ꪺ끔꺧뱶암ꅁꚹ놴끑ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뿄뫊럾껄ꩇꅃꖻ곣ꡳ끷맯믈ꛦ뚡놵뫊럾껄ꩇ덝ꥷꑀ뉺뷗볒ꮬꅁ떲ꩇ엣ꗜ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩꣣ꚳ뚡놵뿄뫊럾껄ꩇꅃ 3. 볒ꮬ덝ꥷ ꖻ곣ꡳꯘ멣ꑀ귓끦뿯뻜ꪺ볒ꮬꅃꗑ꧳믈ꛦꪺ궷쁉ꕄ굮꣓ꛛ꧳ꭈꗎ궷쁉ꅁ꧒ꕈ덝ꥷ믈ꛦ셚껄깴늧Ꙣ꧳꣤꧓꣼ꪺꭈꗎ궷쁉꒣Ꙑꅃ낲덝믈ꛦꪺ띾냈Ꙣ꧳ꚬ뚰꙳듚ꅁ둍믝굮룪ꪺꗸ띾ꅁꣃ녎꧒ꚬ뚰꣬ꪺ룪ꅁ꧱듚떹ꢺ믝굮룪ꪺꗸ띾ꅁꕈꚹ쇈꣺꙳꧱듚뚡ꪺꝑ깴ꅃ굙걏믈ꛦ꧱듚ꪺꗸ띾롧샧ꖢ뇑ꅁ믈ꛦ녎ꡓ뿬ꩫꙞꚬ꧱듚ꅁꑝ둎ꡓ뿬ꩫ녎룪쉫쇙떹꙳듚ꓡꅁ꙳듚ꓡ녎비꣼띬ꖢꅃ낲덝롧샙엩꡴꒤ꚳ꣢뫘믈ꛦꅁꑀ뫘걏ꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦꅝGꅞꅁ
416ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩뭐뚡놵뿄뫊럾 ꕴꕾꑀ뫘걏ꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦꅝBꅞꅃꚹ꣢뫘믈ꛦ뎣꣣돆ꕩꕈ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ룪껦ꅃꑝ둎걏ꖻ곣ꡳ볒ꮬ뇆낣ꭈꗎ궷쁉땻ꯗꭄ녠낪ꅁꛓ꣏녯ꩫꯟ궭꣮꣤때ꩫ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ믈ꛦꅃꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦ맯꧳꧱듚ꪺ뱸ꭈ꿠ꑏ룻Gꙮꅁ꧱듚Ꙟꚬꖢ뇑ꪺ뻷뉶결γꅆꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦ맯꧱듚뱸ꭈꪺ꿠ꑏ룻B깴ꅁ꧱듚Ꙟꚬꖢ뇑ꪺ뻷뉶결γꅃꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦ꧱듚Ꙟꚬꖢ뇑ꪺ뻷뉶ꓱGBꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦꝃꅁγ<γꅃꛓꑀ꿫꙳듚ꓡꣃ꒣ꪾ륄믈ꛦꭈꗎ궷쁉ꪺ낪ꝃꅃꕵꪾ륄믈ꛦ걏ꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦꪺꗽꓑ뻷뉶결θꅁ0≤θ≤1ꅁ걏ꭈꗎD궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦꪺ뻷뉶결1-θꅃꚹ껉ꑀ꿫꙳듚ꓡ굮ꡄꪺ꙳듚ꝑ뉶r(θ)녎결DGBr(θ)=r+ϖ(θ*γ+(1−θ)*γ) fꅃ꙳듚ꓡ라꣼꣬믈ꛦꪺꭈꗎ궷쁉뱶암ꅃ럭믈ꛦ꧱듚Ꙟꚬꖢ뇑껉라엽꙳듚GBꓡ비꣼띬ꖢꅁθ*γ+(1−θ)*γ결꙳듚ꓡ뭻결믈ꛦ꧱듚Ꙟꚬꖢ뇑ꪺ듁뇦뻷뉶ꅁꕩ뗸결걏꙳듚ꓡ꧓꣼ꪺ궷쁉ꅃꛓϖ(.)결ꑀ돦뷕뮼듮꣧볆ꅁ꣤귈ꕩ뗸결걏ꑀ꿫꙳듚ꓡ끷맯믈ꛦꪺꭈꗎ궷쁉ꅁ꧒굮ꡄꪺ궷쁉랸륓ꅃr결때궷쁉ꝑfD뉶ꅃ꧒ꕈr(θ)ꗑ때궷쁉ꝑ뉶ꑀ꿫꙳듚ꓡ꧒꧓뻡ꪺ궷쁉랸륓ꡍꥷꅃꙢ낲덝때궷쁉ꝑ뉶결ꕾꗍ떹ꥷꑕꅁꛓ꙳듚ꓡ꧒꧓뻡ꪺ궷쁉랸륓뭐ꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺD믈ꛦꪺꗽꓑ뻷뉶θꚳ쏶ꅁ꧒ꕈꑀ꿫꙳듚ꓡ굮ꡄꪺ꙳듚ꝑ뉶ꕩꕈꕈr(θ)ꫭDDDDꗜꅁꛓr(θ)ꑝ결ꑀ돦뷕뮼듮꣧볆ꅃꕏR(θ)=1+r(θ)ꅁR(θ)ꑝ결ꑀ돦뷕뮼듮꣧볆ꅃ ꖻ볒ꮬ결ꑆ슲꓆끟ꢣꅁꣃꡓꚳ꽓ꝏ끑뷗꙳듚ꭏ쁉꣮ꯗ꙳Ꙣꪺ뱶암ꅃꪽ놵덝ꥷꑀ꿫꙳듚ꓡꪽ놵뻚믈ꛦꪺꭈꗎ궷쁉땻ꯗ굮ꡄ꒣Ꙑꪺ꙳듚ꝑ뉶ꅃꝙ꣏꙳Ꙣ꙳듚ꭏ쁉꣮ꯗꅁꑀ꿫꙳듚ꓡ땍걏라럓믈ꛦꪺꭈꗎ궷쁉굮ꡄ꒣Ꙑꪺ꙳듚ꝑ뉶ꅃ릳걏냪꙳듚ꭏ쁉뇸꣒닄ꑔ뇸덗ꥷꅇꑚ롧ꩫ껖귣ꚬ꣼꙳듚꣼끕롧뉺꣣ꭏꖻꭏ꺧꒧ꕎ결뵔ꥷꗎ덾ꭈ끕룪꒧뿄뻷멣ꅁ삳ꖻ뇸꣒냑ꕛ꙳듚ꭏ쁉결굮ꭏ뻷멣ꅃꑝ둎걏냪걆ꦲ굮ꡄ꧒ꚳ믈ꛦ뎣굮냑뭐꙳듚ꭏ쁉ꅁ걏냪믈ꛦ뚡ꪺ꙳듚ꝑ뉶ꅁ꒴ꚳ낪ꝃ꒣Ꙑꅃ꧒ꕈꖻ볒ꮬ쇶ꖼ뉛뭜꙳듚ꭏ쁉ꅁꣃ꒣라ꙝꚹ뱶암ꑀ꿫꙳듚ꓡꪽ놵뻚믈ꛦꪺꭈꗎ궷쁉땻ꯗ굮ꡄ꒣Ꙑꪺ꙳듚ꝑ뉶ꪺ덝ꥷꅃ ꕴꕾ낲덝믈ꛦꪺ꧱듚ꖫ돵결ꞹꗾ쑶ꪧꖫ돵ꅁ꧒ꕈ돦ꑀ뱴냓궱맯ꡃ깡믈Lꛦꪺ꧱듚ꝑ뉶뎣걏ꑀ볋ꪺꅁꕏ꣤결rꅃꙁꕏ꧒ꚳ믈ꛦ뎣ꕵ맯돦ꑀ뱴냓꧱듚ꅁL꧱듚썂뎣결1ꅁ꧒ꕈ럭믈ꛦ꧱듚Ꙟꚬꚨꕜ껉ꕩꕈ샲녯1+rꅁꕏLLR=1+rꅃꕂ덝ꥷꑀ뙽ꥬ껉믈ꛦꪺ룪꣓랽ꞹꗾ꣓ꛛ꧳ꑀ꿫꙳듚ꓡꅃ꧒ꕈ믈ꛦꪺꝑ볭꣓ꛛ꧳꣤꙳꧱듚ꪺꝑ깴ꅁ꧒ꕈꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ듁뇦돸륓결GLDBLD(1−γ)R−R(θ)ꅆꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦꪺ듁뇦돸륓결(1−γ)R−R(θ)ꅃGLDBLDꙐ껉ꕩꪾ(1−γ)R−R(θ)>(1−γ)R−R(θ)>0ꅃ
궷쁉뫞뉺뻇돸 417닄꒭ꣷ 닄ꑔ듁 2003꙾11ꓫ 낲덝ꑀꅇꑀ꿫ꪺ꙳듚ꓡꣃ꒣ꪾ륄믈ꛦ꽵ꖿꪺꮬ멁ꅁꑝꡓ뿬ꩫ왛맮꣬믈ꛦ꽵ꖿꪺ샧륂놡ꅃ 낲덝ꑇꅇ럭믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩껉ꅁꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩룪ꑈ꒣ꪾ륄믈ꛦ꽵ꖿꪺꮬ멁ꅃ걏ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩룪ꑈ라맯믈ꛦꪺꭈꗎ궷쁉땻ꯗ뙩ꛦ뗻믹ꅁ룓뗻믹꣓ꛛ꧳뛅꣩룪ꑈ왛맮꣬믈ꛦꭥ듁샧륂놡꧒늣ꗍꪺ끔꺧ꅝsignalꅞꅁꛓ늣ꗍꪺꕄ왛Ꝑ쉟ꅃꚹ끔꺧걏ꑀ꿫꙳듚ꓡ때ꩫ왛맮꣬ꪺꅃ낲덝ꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦꭥ듁샧륂ꖢ뇑늣ꗍ굴궱끔꺧ꪺ뻷G뉶ꅁ뭐꣤꧱듚ꖢ뇑ꪺ뻷뉶ꑀ볋결γꅁꭨꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦꭥ듁G샧륂ꚨꕜ늣ꗍꖿ궱끔꺧ꪺ뻷뉶결1-γꅆ낲덝ꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦꭥ듁샧륂ꖢ뇑늣ꗍ굴궱끔꺧ꪺ뻷뉶ꅁ뭐꣤꧱듚ꖢ뇑ꪺ뻷뉶ꑀ볋결Bγꅁꭨꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦꭥ듁샧륂ꚨꕜ늣ꗍꖿ궱끔꺧ꪺ뻷뉶결B1-γꅃꛓ뛅꣩룪ꑈ라ꚹ끔꺧굮ꡄꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ돸륓뉶ꅃꑀ꿫꙳듚ꓡ왛맮꣬뛅꣩ꖫ돵ꑗꪺꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩돸륓뉶ꅁꑝ라ꟳ띳ꖻꢭ맯믈ꛦꭈꗎ궷쁉땻ꯗꪺ뗻믹ꅃ 럭믈ꛦꡍꥷ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩껉ꅁ라뛒뚰β돦ꛬꪺ룪ꅁ0<β<1ꅃꕴꕾꙁ뛒뚰1-β돦ꛬꪺꑀ꿫꙳듚ꅃꛓ믈ꛦ땯ꛦ뛅꣩ꪺꚨꖻ결뛅꣩룪ꑈ꧒굮ꡄBˆꪺꝑ꺧ꅁꝙr(θ) BGBˆˆˆr(θ)=r+φ(θ*γ+(1−θ)*γ) fˆ믈ꛦꙞꚬ꧱듚ꖢ뇑껉라엽뛅꣩룪ꑈ비꣼띬ꖢꅃθ결뛅꣩룪ꑈ왛맮믈ꛦꭥ듁샧륂꧒늣ꗍꪺ끔꺧ꯡꅁ뭻결믈ꛦ결ꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺꯡ뻷뉶ꅃ꧒ꕈGBˆˆθ*γ+(1−θ)*γꕩ뗸결걏뛅꣩룪ꑈ꧓꣼ꪺ궷쁉ꅃϕ(.)결ꑀ돦뷕뮼듮꣧볆ꅁ꣤귈ꕩ뗸결걏ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩룪ꑈ끷맯믈ꛦꪺꭈꗎ궷쁉ꅁ꧒굮ꡄꪺ궷쁉랸륓ꅃ꧒ꕈ뛅꣩룪ꑈ굮ꡄꪺꝑ꺧ꚬ꽱ꅁ뭐꣤뭻ꥷ믈ꛦ걏ꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈BBˆˆˆꛦꪺ뻷뉶θꚳ쏶ꅁ꣤꧒굮ꡄꪺ뛅꣩ꚬ꽱ꕩꕈr(θ)ꫭꗜꅁꛓr(θ)ꑝ결ꑀ돦BBBˆˆˆ뷕뮼듮꣧볆ꅁꕏR(θ)=1+r(θ)ꅁR(θ)ꑝ결ꑀ돦뷕뮼듮꣧볆ꅃꙢꖻ볒ꮬˆ꒤뛅꣩룪ꑈꕈ믈ꛦꭥ듁샧륂꧒늣ꗍꪺ끔꺧결ꛒ뙱뻚ꅁꕈθꫭꗜꚸ뚶ꛬS뛅앶ꑈ왛맮꣬믈ꛦꭥ듁샧륂꧒늣ꗍꪺ끔꺧ꯡꅁ뭻ꥷ걏ꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦꪺˆ뻷뉶ꅆθ결ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅앶ꑈ왛맮꣬믈ꛦꭥ듁샧륂꧒늣ꗍꪺ끔꺧ꯡꅁ뭻ꥷ걏ꭈFꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦꪺ뻷뉶ꅃꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦꭥ듁샧륂꧒늣ꗍꪺ끔꺧ꅁꝑꗎꢩꚡꥷ뉺륂뫢ꕩ녯 GGθ*γθ*(1−γ)ˆˆθ=ꅁθ= SFGBGBθ*γ+(1−θ)*γθ*(1−γ)+(1−θ)*(1−γ)
418ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩뭐뚡놵뿄뫊럾 BBˆˆˆˆꕂ θ>θ>θꅁ꧒ꕈR(θ)<R(θ) SFSFD굙걏믈ꛦꡍꥷ꒣땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅁꑀ꿫꙳듚ꓡ꒴걏굮ꡄr(θ)ꪺ꙳듚ꝑ뉶ꅃ굙걏믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꯡꅁꑀ꿫꙳듚ꓡꕩꕈ덺륌뛅꣩ꪺꖫ돵ꚬBˆˆ꽱r(θ),h=S,Fꅁ뇀뫢ꕘ뛅꣩룪ꑈ맯믈ꛦꪺ뗻믹결θꅃ뙩ꛓꟳ띳꣤맯hhDˆ믈ꛦ꧱듚ꭾ뷨ꪺꭈ꧀ꅁ꣓궫띳굮ꡄ꙳듚돸륓결r(θ)ꅁ hDˆˆr(θ)=r+ω(θ)hfh ꚹꕾꗑ꧳ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺꡄ쁶뚶ꛬꝃ꧳ꑀ꿫꙳듚ꅁ뛈쁵꧳ꩆ앶꽱ꅁ라꧓뻡룻Ꙩꪺ궷쁉ꅃ꧒ꕈ뛅꣩룪ꑈ꧒굮ꡄꪺ돸륓라ꓱꑀ꿫꙳듚ꓡ꧒굮ꡄꪺBDˆˆˆˆ돸륓결낪ꅁꑝ둎걏φ(θ)ꇖω(θ)걏r(θ)ꇖr(θ)ꅃ *낲덝ꑔꅇ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꪺꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ볆뙱βꑰ꧳ꑀ꽓ꥷ귈βꅁꛓDDˆR(θ)−R(θ)*Sβ=ꅃ BDˆˆR(θ)−R(θ)SS낲덝ꑔꕄ굮걏ꥉ삳ꚳ쏶뒣귒ꕈꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩결ꕄꪺ뿄궲뒣껗ꅁꯘ쒳굮ꡄ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꑀꥷ볆뙱ꪺꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅁ곹ꕵ믈ꛦꖻꢭ궷쁉꧊룪늣ꪺ1ꉍ*-5ꉍꅃꟆ뇦꿠ꕈꑀꥷ볆뙱ꪺꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩땯뒧뿄뫊럾껄ꩇꅃ럭β<β껉ꅁ믈ꛦꙞꚬ꧱듚ꚨꕜꅁꕂ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩꒧돸륓ꅁꑪ꧳믈ꛦ꒣땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ돸륓ꅁꑝ둎걏 iLBDiLDˆˆ (1−γ)R−(βR(θ)+(1−β)R(θ))>(1−γ)R−R(θ)ꅁi∈{G,B} SSBDˆˆ꣤꒤βR(θ)+(1−β)R(θ)결믈ꛦꡍꥷ땯ꛦβ썂ꪺꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꯡꅁꭥSS듁꧱듚ꑓꚨꕜꙞꚬꯡꅁ룓믈ꛦꪺ뿄룪ꚨꖻꅃ ꕏ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뻷뉶결qꅃ럭믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ듁뇦돸륓ꑪ꧳꒣땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ돸륓껉ꅁq=1ꅆ럭믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ듁뇦돸륓ꑰ꧳꒣땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ돸륓껉ꅁq=0ꅆ럭믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ듁뇦돸륓떥꧳꒣땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ돸륓껉ꅁꑝ둎걏믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩뭐꒣땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩맯믈ꛦ녡꣓ꪺ듁뇦ꚬ꽱걏ꑀ볋ꪺ껉귔ꅁ믈ꛦꕩ꿠ꡍꥷ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅁꑝꕩ꿠ꡍꥷ꒣땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅃ꧒ꕈ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뻷뉶꒶꧳0뭐1꒧뚡ꅁꝙ0<q<1ꅃꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뻷뉶결qꅆꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뻷뉶결qꅃ GB 땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩βꅁꕈꑀ꿫꙳듚뛒뚰1-βꅆ ꒣땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩뛒뚰1돦ꛬꪺ꙳듚
궷쁉뫞뉺뻇돸 ꡍꥷ걏ꝟ땯ꛦ419닄꒭ꣷ 닄ꑔ듁 2003꙾11ꓫ ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ ꭥ듁샧륂놡늣ꗍ끔꺧꧱듚1 맏1€禵箶榦? ꫭ1₥뮼튫겲언릪목瞸? G,B 믈ꛦꪺ뫘쏾ꅃꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦꅝGꅞꅂꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦꅝBꅞ ˆˆθ,θ θ걏ꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃ믈ꛦꪺꗽꓑ뻷뉶ꅂθ걏ꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃ믈ꛦꪺꯡ뻷뉶 φ(θ),ω(θ) φ(θ)ꫭꗜꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩룪ꑈ꧒굮ꡄꪺ궷쁉랸륓ꅂω(θ)ꫭꗜꑀ꿫꙳듚ꓡ꧒굮ꡄꪺ궷쁉랸륓 S, F Sꫭꗜꭥ듁꧱듚ꙞꚬꚨꕜꅂFꫭꗜꭥ듁꧱듚Ꙟꚬꖢ뇑ˆˆˆθꅂθ θ결믈ꛦ꧱듚Ꙟꚬꚨꕜꯡꅁꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅앶ꑈ뭻ꥷ걏ꭈꗎSFSˆ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦꪺ뻷뉶ꅆθ결믈ꛦ꧱듚Ꙟꚬꖢ뇑ꯡꅁꚸF뚶ꛬ뛅앶ꑈ뭻ꥷ걏ꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦꪺ뻷뉶 GBꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦ꧱듚Ꙟꚬꖢ뇑뻷뉶ꅁꑝ떥꧳ꭈꗎ궷γꅂγ 쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦꭥ듁샧륂ꖢ뇑늣ꗍ굴궱끔꺧ꪺ뻷뉶Gꅝγꅞꅂꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦ꧱듚Ꙟꚬꖢ뇑뻷뉶ꅁꑝ떥꧳ꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦꭥ듁샧륂ꖢ뇑늣ꗍ굴궱끔꺧ꪺB뻷뉶ꅝγꅞ DBLDBr(θ),r(θ),r,r ꙳듚ꝑ뉶ꅝr(θ)ꅞꅂꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩둆꺧ꅝr(θ)ꅞꅂ때fL궷쁉ꝑ뉶ꅝrꅞꅂ꧱듚ꝑ뉶ꅝrꅞ fDBLDDBBLLR(θ),R(θ),R R(θ)=1+r(θ)ꅁR(θ)=1+r(θ)ꅁR=1+r β 믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ썂 qꅂq q결ꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뻷뉶ꅂqGBGB결ꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뻷뉶 맏1ꫭꗜ뻣귓ꡍ떦걹땻ꅁ믈ꛦꡍꥷ걏ꝟ굮땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅃꡍꥷ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ믈ꛦꅁ녎땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꕈ뛒뚰룪βꅁꕈꑀ꿫꙳듚뛒뚰룪1-βꅃꛓꡍꥷ꒣땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ믈ꛦꅁꭨꕈꑀ꿫꙳듚뛒뚰룪1ꅃ뛒
420ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩뭐뚡놵뿄뫊럾 뚰룪꒧ꯡ믈ꛦꙁ쑾쓲꧱듚ꅃ믈ꛦ라ꛒ뱻ꭥ듁샧륂놡끔꺧맯뿄룪ꚨꖻ꧒녡꣓ꪺ뱶암ꅃꖻ볒ꮬ쇶땍ꕵ꓀꩒ꑀ듁ꪺ륌땻ꅁ꒧ꯡꪺꡍ떦륌땻ꅁꡃꑀ듁뎣걏곛Ꙑꪺꅁ꧒ꕈꑀ듁ꪺ꓀꩒떲ꩇꭋ꣣ꚳꕎꫭ꧊ꅃꫭ1멋굮ꖻ볒ꮬ꧒ꗎꪺ닅뢹ꥷ롱ꅃ 4. 볒ꮬ꓀꩒ 뻚꧒덝ꥷꪺ볒ꮬꅁꡄꕘ믈ꛦꙢꞡ뿅뇸ꗳꑕ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뻷뉶ꅃꑝ둎걏라ꚳꙨ귓ꢩꚡꞡ뿅룑ꅁꛓ늣ꗍꕈꑕꥒ썄ꅇ ꥒ썄ꑀꅇ꙳Ꙣꑀ꧒ꚳ믈ꛦ뎣꒣라땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩꒧ꞡ뿅룑ꅁꑝ둎걏q=q=0ꅃ GB쏒ꧺꅇ iiLD믈ꛦ꒣땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩꒧돸륓결N=(1−γ)R−R(θ)ꅁi∈{G,B}ꅃGꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦꡍꥷ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꯡ꒧듁뇦돸륓결E GGLGBDGBDˆˆˆˆ E=(1−γ)R−(1−γ)(βR(θ)+(1−β)R(θ))−γ(βR(θ)+(1−β)R(θ))SSFFFGL꣤꒤(1−γ)Rꫭꗜꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦ꧱듚ꪺ듁뇦ꚬ꽱ꅁꛓGBDˆˆ(1−γ)(βR(θ)+(1−β)R(θ))ꫭꗜꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦꭥ듁샧륂ꚨꕜ늣SSGBDˆˆꗍꖿ궱끔꺧ꯡꪺ듁뇦뿄룪ꚨꖻꅁγ(βR(θ)+(1−β)R(θ))ꫭꗜꫭꗜꭈFFꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦꭥ듁샧륂ꖢ뇑늣ꗍ굴궱끔꺧ꯡꪺ듁뇦뿄룪ꚨꖻꅃ Bꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꯡ꒧륷듁돸륓결E BBLBBDBBDˆˆˆˆ E=(1−γ)R−(1−γ)(βR(θ)+(1−β)R(θ))−γ(βR(θ)+(1−β)R(θ))SSFFBL꣤꒤(1−γ)Rꫭꗜꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦ꧱듚ꪺ듁뇦ꚬ꽱ꅁBBDˆˆ(1−γ)(βR(θ)+(1−β)R(θ))ꫭꗜꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦꭥ듁샧륂ꚨꕜ늣SSBBDˆˆꗍꖿ궱끔꺧ꯡꪺ듁뇦뿄룪ꚨꖻꅁγ(βR(θ)+(1−β)R(θ))ꫭꗜꭈꗎ궷FF쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦꭥ듁샧륂ꖢ뇑늣ꗍ굴궱끔꺧ꯡꪺ듁뇦뿄룪ꚨꖻꅃ 굮쏒ꧺ꧒ꚳ믈ꛦ뎣꒣라땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩결ꑀꞡ뿅룑ꅃ낲덝뛅꣩룪ꑈ뭻결ꕵꚳꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦ라땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅃꑝ둎걏럭믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩껉ꅁ뛅꣩룪ꑈꭋ뭻결꣤결ꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦꅃꛓꑀ꿫꙳듚ꓡ왛맮뛅꣩룪ꑈꪺ뗻믹ꛦ결ꯡꅁꑝ라녎꧒ꚳ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ믈ꛦ뗸결ꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦꅃꚹ껉믈ꛦꭥ듁꧱듚ꪺ셚껄꒣라뱶암뛅꣩룪ꑈ맯믈ꛦꭈꗎ궷쁉ˆˆꪺ뗻믹ꅁ녎꣏θ=θ=0ꅁ꧒ꕈꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ듁뇦SF돸륓결
궷쁉뫞뉺뻇돸 421닄꒭ꣷ 닄ꑔ듁 2003꙾11ꓫ GGLGBDGBDE=(1−γ)R−(1−γ)(βR(0)+(1−β)R(0))− γ(βR(0)+(1−β)R(0))GLBD=(1−γ)R−β(R(0))−(1−β)(R(0)) ꛓꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ듁뇦돸륓결 BBLBDE=(1−γ)R−β(R(0))−(1−β)(R(0)) ꑓꙝ결 DDDR(θ)=βR(θ)+(1−β)R(θ) BDBD <βR(θ)+(1−β)R(θ)<βR(0)+(1−β)R(0)ꅁ ꧒ꕈ BBLBDBLDB E=(1−γ)R−β(R(0))−(1−β)(R(0))<(1−γ)R−R(θ))=N GGLBDGLDG E=(1−γ)R−β(R(0))−(1−β)(R(0))<(1−γ)R−R(θ)=N ꑝ둎걏뮡Ꙣ덯뫘놡ꑕꅁ꧒ꚳꪺ믈ꛦ꒣땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩꣤ꚬ꽱ꓱ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺꚬ꽱꣓녯낪ꅁ꧒ꕈ꧒ꚳ믈ꛦ뎣꒣라땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅃ곛ꪺꅁ굙걏뛅꣩룪ꑈ뭻결ꕵꚳꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦꑾ라땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅁꭨ꧒ꚳ믈ꛦ뎣라땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅃꚹꞡ뿅룑녎Ꙣꥒ썄ꑔ끑뷗ꅃ . ꖻꥒ썄뮡ꧺꖫ돵ꑗ꙳Ꙣꑀ귓ꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦ뎣꒣라땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺꞡ뿅룑ꅃꑝ둎걏꒣뷗걏ꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦꅁ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅁ뎣라뱗ꕛ믈ꛦꪺꚨꖻ껉ꅁꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦ뎣꒣라땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅃ라땯ꗍ뫘놡걏ꙝ결뛅꣩룪ꑈꅁ때ꩫ뻚믈ꛦꪺꭥ듁롧샧끔꺧맯믈ꛦ뙩ꛦꖿ뵔ꙡ뗻믹ꅃ꣏녯ꑀ꿫꙳듚ꑈꗧ때ꩫ녱믈ꛦꪺꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩둆꺧ꅁ샲녯ꟳꙨꪺ믈ꛦꭈꗎ궷쁉룪끔ꅁꑝ둎때ꩫ땯뒧ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뚡놵뫊럾껄ꩇꅃ꧒ꕈ낷ꗾ뛅꣩ꖫ돵ꅁ엽ꚳ꿠ꑏ왛맮믈ꛦ꧱듚Ꙟꚬ셚껄ꪺ뛅꣩룪ꑈ냑뭐룪ꅁ걏땯뒧ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩뚡놵뫊럾껄ꩇꪺꗽꡍ뇸ꗳꅃ ꥒ썄ꑇꅇ꒣라꙳Ꙣꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뻷뉶ꑪ꧳륳ꅁꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뻷뉶떥꧳륳꒧꓀싷ꞡ뿅룑ꅆꑝ꒣ꕩ꿠꙳Ꙣꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦ땯ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뻷뉶ꑪ꧳륳ꅁꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뻷뉶떥꧳륳꒧꓀싷ꞡ뿅룑ꅃꑝ둎걏꒣라꙳Ꙣq>0ꅂq=0걏q>0ꅂq=0ꪺꞡ뿅룑ꅃ GBBG쏒ꧺꅇ 1. 굙걏꙳Ꙣꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뻷뉶ꑪ꧳륳ꅝq>0ꅞꅁB걏ꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뻷뉶떥꧳륳ꅝq=0ꅞ꒧꓀싷Gꞡ뿅룑ꅃꚹ껉ꕵꚳꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅁ믈ꛦꭥ듁샧륂ꪺ끔뢹꒣라뱶암뛅꣩룪ꑈ맯믈ꛦꭈꗎ궷쁉ꪺ뗻믹ꅁ럭믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅
422ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩뭐뚡놵뿄뫊럾 ˆˆ꣩껉녎꣏θ=θ=0ꅃꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ돸륓녎결SFBBLBDE=(1−γ)R−β(R(0))−(1−β)(R(0))ꅁꛓ굙걏ꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦ뿯뻜꒣땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅁꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦꪺ돸륓결BBLDN=(1−γ)R−R(θ)ꅁꙝ결ꥒ썄ꑀ꒤ꑷDBDR(θ))<βR(0)+(1−β)R(0)ꅁ ₩튥? BBLBDBLDBE=(1−γ)R−β(r(0))−(1−β)(R(0))<(1−γ)R−R(θ)=Nꅁ ꝙq=0ꅃꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦ꒣라땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅁ뭐q>0곛ꗙ곞ꅃBB꧒ꕈ꒣라꙳Ꙣq>0ꅂq=0ꪺꞡ뿅룑ꅃ BG2. 굙걏꙳Ꙣꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦ땯ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뻷뉶ꑪ꧳륳ꅝq>0ꅞꅁꭈGꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뻷뉶떥꧳륳ꅝq=0ꅞ꒧ꞡ뿅룑ꅃꚹB껉ꕵꚳꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅁ믈ꛦꭥ듁샧륂ꪺ끔뢹꒣라뱶암뛅꣩룪ꑈ맯믈ꛦꭈꗎ궷쁉ꪺ뗻믹ꅁ럭믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩껉녎꣏ˆˆθ=θ=1ꅃꚹ껉ꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦꪺ륷듁돸륓결 SFBBLD?N=(1−γ)R−R(θ) 굙걏ꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦ뿯뻜땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩껉ꅁ꣤륷듁돸륓결 BBLBD?E=(1−γ)R−β(R(1))−(1−β)(R(1)) *ꙝ결낲덝ꑔ덝ꥷβ<βꅁꑝ둎걏 BLBDBLDˆˆ?(1−γ)R−(βR(θ)+(1−β)R(θ))>(1−γ)R−R(θ) SSBDBDˆˆꛓ β(R(1))−(1−β)(R(1))<β(R(θ))−(1−β)(R(θ)) SS꧒ꕈ BBLDBLBDBN=(1−γ)R−R(θ)<(1−γ)R−β(R(1))−(1−β)(R(1))=E ꅁq>0ꅃꙝꚹꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦ라뿯뻜땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅁ뭐q=0BBꗙ곞ꅃ꧒ꕈ꒣라꙳Ꙣq=0ꅂq>0ꪺꞡ뿅룑ꅃ . BGꖻꥒ썄ꑇ뮡ꧺꖫ돵ꑗ꒣라꙳Ꙣ꓀싷ꞡ뿅룑ꅃꑝ둎걏ꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦ녎라볒ꗩꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦꪺ땯ꛦꡍ떦ꅁꕈ궰ꝃ뿄룪ꪺꚨꖻꅃ ꥒ썄ꑔꅇ꙳Ꙣ꧒ꚳ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뻷뉶ꑪ꧳륳꒧ꞡ뿅룑ꅁꑝ둎걏q>0ꅁq>0ꅃ GB쏒ꧺꅇ
궷쁉뫞뉺뻇돸 423닄꒭ꣷ 닄ꑔ듁 2003꙾11ꓫ 1. 굙걏ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅앶ꑈ꿠왛맮믈ꛦꭥ듁롧샧끔꺧ꅃ럭믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩꒧듁뇦돸륓ꑪ꧳꒣땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩꒧듁뇦돸륓껉ꅁ믈ꛦ라땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅃꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦ라땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뇸ꗳ결 GGLGBDGBˆˆˆ E=(1−γ)R−(1−γ)(βR(θ)+(1−β)R(θ))−γ(βR(θ) SSFDGLDˆ +(1−β)R(θ))≥(1−γ)R−R(θ) FDBDˆˆR(θ)−βR(θ)−(1−β)R(θ)GSS*럭껉ꑗ굺뇸ꗳ라γ≤=γBBDDˆˆˆˆβ(R(θ)−R(θ))+(1−β)(R(θ)−R(θ))FSFSꚨꗟꅃ낲덝ꑔꕘ GLBDGLDˆˆ†(1−γ)R−(βR(θ)+(1−β)R(θ))>(1−γ)R−R(θ))ꅁ SSDBDˆˆ₥榪븠R(θ)−βR(θ)−(1−β)R(θ)>0ꅁ SSBBDDˆˆˆˆˆˆꛓꙝ결θ<θꅁ꧒ꕈR(θ)−R(θ)>0ꅂR(θ)−R(θ)>0ꅁ꧒ꕈFSFSFS*γ>0ꅃꑝ둎걏Ꙣꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦꙞꚬ꙳듚ꖢ뇑ꅁꭥ듁롧샧늣ꗍ굴G*궱끔꺧ꪺ뻷뉶냷ꝃ껉ꅝγ≤γꅞꅁ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ듁뇦돸륓녎라ꑪ꧳꒣땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩꒧듁뇦돸륓ꅁ믈ꛦ라땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅃ ꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦ라땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ듁뇦돸륓뇸ꗳ결 BBLBBDBBˆˆˆE=(1−γ)R−(1−γ)(βR(θ)+(1−β)R(θ))−γ(βR(θ) SSFDBLDˆ? +(1−β)R(θ))≥(1−γ)R−R(θ) FGBGBGLDꙝ결γ<γꅁ꧒ꕈE>EꅃꙢE>R−R(θ)껉ꅁq=1ꅃꛓ껚뻚ꥒGGBLD썄ꑇ녯ꪾq=1껉ꅁq≠0ꅁꑝ둎걏럭E>E>R−R(θ)껉ꅁq=1ꅃGBBGBLD럭E>E=R−R(θ)껉ꅂ0<q<1 B2. 굙걏뛅꣩룪ꑈ뭻결ꕵꚳꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦ라땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅃꑝ둎걏럭믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩껉ꅁ뛅꣩룪ꑈꭋ뭻결꣤결ꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦꅃꛓꑀ꿫꙳듚ꓡ왛맮뛅꣩룪ꑈꪺ뗻믹ꛦ결ꯡꅁꑝ라녎꧒ꚳ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ믈ꛦ뗸결ꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦꅃꚹ껉믈ꛦꭥ듁꧱듚ꪺ셚껄꒣라뱶암뛅ˆˆ꣩룪ꑈ맯믈ꛦꭈꗎ궷쁉ꪺ뗻믹ꅁ녎꣏θ=θ=1ꅃꚹ껉꒣뷗ꭈꗎ궷쁉SS낪걏ꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦꅁ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ륷듁돸륓뎣녎결LBDR−(βR(1)+(1−β)R(1))ꅁ *ꗑ낲덝ꑔꕩꪾꙢβ<β껉ꅁꕩ녯 LBDLDˆˆR−(βR(θ)+(1−β)R(θ))>R−R(θ)ꅁ SS
424ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩뭐뚡놵뿄뫊럾 BDBDˆˆꛓβ(R(1))−(1−β)(R(1))<β(R(θ))−(1−β)(R(θ)) SSGBLDLBDBG꧒ꕈN=N=R−R(θ)<r−β(R(1))−(1−β)(R(1))=E=E ꧒ꕈ꧒ꚳ믈ꛦ뎣라땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅃ . ꖻꥒ썄뮡ꧺꖫ돵ꑗ꙳Ꙣꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦ뭐ꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦ뎣ꕩ꿠땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺꞡ뿅룑ꅃ럭믈ꛦ쒱녯ꭥ듁샧륂ꚨꕜ늣ꗍꖿ궱끔꺧ꪺ뻷GB뉶냷ꑪ껉ꅝꝙγ뭐γ냷ꑰꅞꅁ걏럭ꖫ돵ꑗ뭻ꥷ믈ꛦ결ꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦ껉ꅁ녎꣏녯믈ꛦꪺ뿄룪ꚨꖻꑪ둔궰ꝃ껉ꅝꗧꝙ럭ꑀ꿫꙳듚ꓡ왛맮꣬ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꑈ맯믈ꛦꚳꙮꪺ뗻믹ꅁ뙩ꛓ궰ꝃ꣤꙳듚ꝑ뉶땻ꯗ냷ꑪ껉ꅞꅁ꒣뷗ꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦ뎣ꚳꕩ꿠땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅃ 쇶땍꒣뷗ꭈꗎ궷쁉낪걏ꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뻷뉶뎣ꑪ꧳륳ꅁ걏ꭈꗎ궷쁉낪뭐ꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩꒧ꯡꪺ듁뇦ꝑ뉶ꓴ럇ꣃ꒣곛Ꙑꅃꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ듁뇦ꝑ뉶ꓴ럇BBBBˆˆ결(1−γ)(R(θ))+γ(R(θ))ꅆꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ듁SFGBGBˆˆ뇦ꝑ뉶ꓴ럇결(1−γ)(R(θ))+γ(R(θ))ꅃꑝ둎걏ꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦꅁSF땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꯡꅁ라늣ꗍ룻낪ꪺꝑ뉶ꓴ럇ꅆꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦꅁ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꯡꅁ라ꚳ늣ꗍ룻ꝃꪺꝑ뉶ꓴ럇ꅃꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ둆꺧ꓴ럇ꑝ녎냏꓀믈ꛦꪺꭈꗎ궷쁉땻ꯗꅃ꧒ꕈ럭꧒ꚳ믈ꛦ뎣땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩껉ꅁꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ둆꺧ꓴ럇ꭋ꿠땯뒧뚡놵뿄뫊럾껄ꩇꅃ ꥒ썄ꕼꅇꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뻷뉶ꓱꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦꑪꅁꝙq≥q GB쏒ꧺꅇ Ꙣꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦ뎣ꕩ꿠땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ놡ꑕꅁ녱ꥒ썄ꑔꪺ쏒ꧺꕩꕈꪾ륄q=1ꅁ0<q≤1ꅃ . GBꖻꥒ썄꧓쓲ꥒ썄ꑔ뮡ꧺꖫ돵ꑗ꙳Ꙣꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦ뭐ꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦ뎣ꕩ꿠땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺꞡ뿅룑ꅁ걏ꗑ꧳ꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦ꧱듚ꚨꕜꙞꚬꪺ뻷뉶ꓱ룻ꑪꅁ꧒ꕈꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뻷뉶ꓱꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦꑪꅃ ꚹꥒ썄ꑓ엣ꗜꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦ라땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅝq=1ꅞꅃ덯ꫭꗜGꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅁ꣤ꝑ뉶룻ꝃꅁ덺륌ꝃꝑ뉶ꪺꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩땯ꛦ뇸ꗳꅁ쓀꧱떹꙳듚ꑈ꣤ꭈꗎ궷쁉룻ꝃꪺ끔꺧ꅁ꣏꙳듚ꑈ쑀띎놵꣼룻ꝃꪺ꙳듚ꝑ뉶ꅁ뻉교믈ꛦꚨꖻꑕ궰ꅁ덯ꭋ걏ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뚡놵뫊럾ꕜ꿠ꪺ땯뒧ꅃ Ꙑ뉺ꅁꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꪺ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뻷뉶ꑰ꧳떥꧳ꑀꅁ걏ꙝ결둎ꭈꗎ궷쁉땻ꯗ낪ꪺ믈ꛦꛓꢥꅁ럭꣤ꭥ듁샧륂ꖢ뇑늣ꗍ굴궱끔꺧ꪺ뻷뉶ꭄ
궷쁉뫞뉺뻇돸 425닄꒭ꣷ 닄ꑔ듁 2003꙾11ꓫ 녠낪껉ꅁ뛅꣩ꖫ돵뗻믹꣤결궷쁉땻ꯗ낪ꪺ믈ꛦꪺ뻷뉶ꗧ라ꯜ낪ꅁꗑ꧳ꝑꗎꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩뿄룪ꪺꚨꖻꅁꑪ꧳ꝑꗎꑀ꿫꙳듚뿄룪ꪺꚨꖻꅃ꧒ꕈ궷쁉땻ꯗ낪ꪺ믈ꛦꙢꛒ뙱뛅꣩뿄룪ꪺꚨꖻꯡꅁ꣤땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뻷뉶녎라ꑰ꧳1ꅃꛓ럭ꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃ믈ꛦ뎣땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩껉ꅁ꣢ꪺ듁뇦둆꺧ꓴ럇녎라꒣Ꙑꅃ럭꣢ꪺ듁뇦뛅꣩둆꺧ꚳ꧒꒣Ꙑ껉ꅁꭋ꿠냏꓀믈ꛦꪺꭈꗎ궷쁉ꅁ땯뒧ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뚡놵뫊럾ꕜ꿠ꅃ 5. 떲뷗 ꖻ곣ꡳꯘ멣ꑀ끦뿯뻜볒ꮬꅁ쏒ꧺ믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅁ꣣뚡놵뿄뫊럾ꕜ꿠ꅃꙝ결덺륌ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ땯ꛦꅁꑀ꿫꙳듚ꓡꗑꖫ돵꧒믝ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩둆꺧ꅁꕩꕈ뇀듺믈ꛦꭈꗎ궷쁉ꅁ뙩ꛓ굮ꡄ꣤꙳듚ꝑ꺧ꅃꛓ믈ꛦ결궰ꝃ꣤뿄룪ꚨꖻꅁ둎라덝ꩫ궰ꝃ꣤ꭈꗎ궷쁉ꅃ꧒ꕈ뿄뫊럾ꕩ뚡놵롧ꗑ믈ꛦ굮놱꣮꣤꙳듚ꝑ꺧꣓륆ꚨꅃ ꖻ곣ꡳꗧꕘ꙳Ꙣꑀ귓ꭈꗎ궷쁉낪ꭈꗎ궷쁉ꝃꪺ믈ꛦ뎣꒣라땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺꞡ뿅룑ꅃ덯껉ꑀ꿫꙳듚ꓡ녎때ꩫ녯꣬ꚳ쏶믈ꛦꭈꗎ궷쁉ꪺꖿ뵔룪끔ꅃ둎뿄뫊럾ꪺꢤꯗꛓꢥꅁ믈ꛦ꒣땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩룻때ꩫ뛇뮼믈ꛦꪺ롧샧셚껄ꅁꑝ둎룻꒣꧶궰ꝃ믈ꛦ뭐ꑀ꿫꙳듚ꓡꅝ뿄뫊럾뻷쏶ꅞ뚡ꪺ룪끔꒣맯뫙땻ꯗꅃ꧒ꕈ꫱꙾꣓덜Ꙩ뿄궲ꓨ껗ꅁꕄ녩굮녪꣮믈ꛦ땯ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꅁ걏ꚳ꣤ꖲ굮꧊ꪺꅃ 껚뻚ꖻ곣ꡳꪺ뇀뷗ꅁ믈ꛦꕩꕈꝑꗎꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺꗦ꧶놡ꅁ녎ꛛꢭꪺ롧샧셚껄뛇뮼떹ꑀ꿫ꪺ꙳듚ꓡꅃꑝ둎걏뮡ꑀ꿫꙳듚ꓡꖲ뚷굮꿠ꪾ륄믈ꛦꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺꗦ꧶룪끔ꅁꑾ꿠꣏녯ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ땯ꛦꪬꩰꗦ꧶놡ꚨ결ꚳꗎꪺ궷쁉뿅뙱볐ꅃꙝꚹꑀ귓ꚨ보ꪺ뛅꣩ꗦ꧶ꖫ돵ꅁ녎ꚳꝕ꧳ꑀ꿫꙳듚ꓡ맯뛅꣩ꗦ꧶놡ꪺ셁룑ꅃꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩굮꣣돆뚡놵뿄뫊럾ꕜ꿠ꅁꑗ굺녪꣮땯ꛦ낷ꗾ뛅꣩ꗦ꧶ꖫ돵ꅁ결꣤ꗽꡍ뇸ꗳꅃ ꚹꕾ녱ꖻ볒ꮬꪺ뇀뷗륌땻꒤ꅁꕩꪾꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺꖫ돵뫊럾뻷꣮ꅁꑄ걏ꗑꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩룪ꑈ꧒굮ꡄꪺ궷쁉랸륓ꛓ꣓ꅃ럭ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꖲ뚷꧓꣼믈ꛦ롧샧ꪺ궷쁉껉ꅁ꣤꧒꧓뻡ꪺ궷쁉녎걍Ꙣꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩둆꺧ꑗꅃ꧒ꕈ굮땯뒧ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뫊럾뻷꣮ꅁꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩룪ꑈꖲ뚷굮꧓뻡믈ꛦꪺ궷쁉ꅃꑝ둎꙰Evanoff and Wallꅝ2000ꅞ뒣ꕘ굮꿠땯뒧ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺꖫ돵뫊럾ꕜ꿠ꅁꖫ돵ꑗ꒣꿠ꚳ걆ꦲ라꧓뻡믈ꛦ귋뎬ꯡ꧒ꚳ뛅냈ꪺ륷듁ꓟ뉺ꅃꕵ굮ꖫ돵ꑗꚳ덯볋ꪺ륷듁ꅁꭨ뛅꣩ꖫ돵ꑗꪺꚬ꽱뉶녎꒣ꙁ엣ꗜꙕ믈ꛦꪺ궷쁉땻ꯗꅃ걏뻚냪ꛦ걆끼뿄궫ꯘ냲덝롭뫞뉺뇸꣒닄ꑑ뇸덗ꥷꅁ걆ꦲ라꧓뻡믈ꛦ꧒ꚳꪺ뛅냈ꅁ굙뇽땯뒧ꚸ뚶ꛬ뛅꣩ꪺ뚡놵뫊럾껄ꩇꅁ곛쏶덗ꥷ둎ꖲ뚷궫띳ꕛꕈ샋끑ꅃ
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