컒맺놾췢쳓탎돉뚯틲뗄쪵횤럖컶 키컀맺 짛 뇸 햪튪ꎺ20쫀볍80쓪듺냩쯦ퟅ삭쏀맺볒뗄햮컱캣믺ꎬ랢햹훐맺볒뗄놾췢쳓쿖쿳뾪쪼쫜떽톧쫵뷧뗄맣랺맘힢ꎬ90쓪듺뗄뷰죚캣믺룼쫇춹쿖놾췢쳓컊쳢뗄퇏훘탔ꆣ춬퇹퓚뺭샺쳥훆맬뗄훐맺ꎬ놾췢쳓컊쳢튲늻죝뫶쫓ꎬ쯼훰붥돉캪컒맺뺭볃붨짨뗄튻듳틾뮼ꆣ놾컄쳡돶쇋펰쿬훐맺놾췢쳓뗄뿉쓜탔틲쯘ꎬ릹붨튻룶맘폚놾췢쳓폫웤뻶뚨틲쯘뗄Johansen킭헻쒣탍ꎬ뗃돶놾췢쳓폫웤뻶뚨틲쯘횮볤뗄뎤웚뻹뫢맘쾵ꆣ쪵횤뷡맻뇭쏷ꎬ퓬돉컒맺놾췢쳓뗄훷튪틲쯘캪맺쓚췢쪵볊샻싊닮틬ꎬ췢햮퓶볓ꎬ믣싊룟맀ꎬ쓚췢닮뇰듽폶뫍뷰죚톹훆뗈ꆣ 맘볼듊ꎺ놾췢쳓; 뚯틲; 쪵횤럖컶 훐춼럖샠뫅ꎺ 컄쿗쪶뇰싫ꎺA 튻ꆢ틽퇔 20쫀볍80쓪듺ꎬ낢룹춢ꆢ쒫컷룧ꆢ캯쓚죰삭뗈삭쏀맺볒랢짺쇋퇏훘뗄햮컱캣믺ꎬ퓚헢킩맺볒튻랽쏦맺볒릫릲늿쏅췢햮듳솿퓶볓ꎬ쇭튻랽쏦쮽죋늿쏅좴돖탸듳솿뗘붫놾틆떽맺췢ꎬ헢킩놾췢쳓쿖쿳틽웰맺볊뺭볃톧뷧벰헾뢮헾닟훆뚨헟뗄맣랺맘힢ꆣ맺쓚톧헟쫇듓1998쓪뾪쪼맘힢훐맺뗄놾췢쳓컊쳢ꎨ퇮쪤룕ꎬ2003ꎩꆣ룄룯뾪럅틔살ꎬ훐맺튻횱놣돖뷏룟뗄뺭볃랢햹쯙뛈ꎬ늢쟒컼틽췢맦쒣튲돖탸퓶뎤ꆣ좻뛸퓚돖탸듳솿췢쇷죫뗄춬쪱튲듦퓚ퟅ맦쒣쿠떱엓듳뗄놾쇷쿲맺췢ꆣퟔ1990쓪틔살ꎬ훐맺뺭볃돶쿖쇋맺쓚뒢탮쪣폠폫맺췢놾듳맦쒣쇷죫춬쪱늢듦뗄쿖쿳ꎬ늻솼닺뗄쟖쪴틔벰놾췢쇷ꎬ뿉쓜쫇떼훂짏쫶쎬뛜쿖쿳뗄훷튪틲쯘ꎨ샮퇯ꎬ1998ꎩꆣ 맺볊뺭볃톧뷧뛔놾췢쳓듸살뗄퇏훘뺭볃컊쳢듦퓚릲쪶ꎬ죏캪놾췢쳓믡퓬돉맺쓚뒢탮뫍췢믣뒢놸뗄쇷쪧ꎬ퓶볓맺볒닆헾삧쓑ꎬ쟖쪴쮰믹뫍얤쟺쫕죫럖엤ힴ뿶ꆣ평폚훐맺뷼쓪살췢뗄돖탸ꆢ듳솿쇷죫틔벰맺볒뛔뫪맛뺭볃뗄폐솦뗷뿘ꎬ쪹뗃놾췢쳓뛔컒맺뺭볃뗄펰쿬캴뇭쏦뮯ꆣ떫쫇죴훐맺뗄췢맺횱뷓춶쇷죫붵뗍믲헟쓦ꎬ돶뿚뒴믣쓜솦붵뗍ꎬ듳솿놾췢쳓뗄횱뷓뷡맻믡떼훂맺볊횧뢶캣믺ꎬ캣벰췢짌춶탅탄ꎬ쫆뇘믡뛔훐맺뗄뺭볃퓶뎤뫍뷰죚컈뚨퓬돉훘듳펰쿬ꆣ쳘뇰쫇퓚뾪럅뺭볃쳵볾쿂ꎬ훐맺볓죫WTO뫍훰늽쪵쿖죋쏱뇒놾쿮쒿뾪럅뗄맽돌훐ꎬ퇐뺿훐맺뗄놾췢쳓컊쳢뻟폐훘듳뗄쿖쪵틢틥ꆣ 몫볌퓆ꎨ1999ꎩ죏캪퓬돉컒맺놾췢쳓뗄훷튪풭틲폐놾훷쳥탅탄짐늻릻돤ퟣꆢ뛔췢뗄뎬맺쏱듽폶ꆢ뷰죚볠맜믺훆뫍쳥쾵늻붡좫ꆢ췢믣쫐뎡랢폽뗄늻췪짆뫍맺폐닺뗄듳솿쇷쪧ꆣ 쯎컄뇸ꎨ1999ꎩ붫컒맺뗄놾췢쳓뮮럖캪솽훖샠탍ꎺ“뒿듢탔”뗄놾췢쳓ꎬ벴놾쳓샫놾맺쪱늢캴좷뚨붫살쫇럱뮹쇷믘믲뫎쪱쇷믘ꎻ쇭튻훖쫇“맽뛉탔”뗄놾췢쳓ꎬ벴췢쳓놾퓚맺췢폖춨맽헽뎣쟾뗀틔“췢”뗄짭럝쇷믘맺쓚ꆣ퓬돉잰헟뗄풭틲훷튪폐뷰죚톹훆뗄뮷뺳ꆢ췢믣맜훆뗄펰쿬ꆢ맺쓚믣싊ꆢ춨헍뗈럧쿕틲쯘뫍닺놣쏜탔튪쟳ꆣ뛸퓬돉뫳헟뗄훷튪틲쯘튻랽쏦쫇췢뗄뎬맺쏱듽폶ꎬ쇭튻랽쏦쫇쓚쪵볊짏뒦폚늻릫욽뗄뺺헹뮷뺳훐ꆣ 죎믝ꎨ2001ꎩ죏캪듓컒맺쪵볊쟩뿶뾴ꎬ놾췢쳓뗄폕틲훷튪폐틔쿂벸룶랽쏦ꎺ틆럇램쯹뗃ꆢ쪵쿖뮯릫캪쮽ꆢ쳓뇜맜훆ꆢ쟷샻뇜쿕뫍틆룶죋닆닺ꆣ 샮쟬퓆ꆢ쳯쿾쾼ꎨ2000ꎩ죏캪퓚듌벤훐맺놾췢쳓뗄맺쓚럧쿕틲쯘떱훐ꎬ닆헾돠ퟖ뫍훍뫳웚뗄죋쏱뇒믣싊룟맀틲쯘쯹웰뗄췆뚯탔ퟷ폃뇈뷏쿔훸ꎻ훐맺헾뢮뛔쓚췢쪵탐뗄닮뇰듽폶헾닟쯹탎돉뗄뿉쳗샻뿕볤쫇듙쪹맺쓚놾췢쳓뗄훘튪틲쯘횮튻ꎻ맺췢뷏룟뗄쪵볊샻싊ퟷ캪튻훖췢늿샻뫃틲쯘뛔훐맺뗄놾췢쳓웰ퟅ삭뚯탔ퟷ폃ꎻ훐맺뷏룟뗄뺭볃퓶뎤쯙뛈틔벰퇏룱뗄놾맜훆뫍췢믣맜훆듫쪩뛔훐맺뗄놾췢쳓웰떽쇋뷏쿔훸뗄틖훆탔ꆣ 퇮몣헤ꆢ싞폀솢ꎨ2002ꎩ뛔훐맺1984ꆪ1999쓪뗄놾췢쳓뷸탐쇋OLS럖컶ꎬ뷡맻뇭쏷ꎺ
늻춬폚듳뛠쫽랢햹훐맺볒ꎬ훐맺뗄놾췢쳓뻟폐럇뺭볃쮥췋쟽뚯쳘뗣ꎬ춬쪱훐맺뗄뺭볃퓶뎤튲쎻폐웰떽틖훆놾췢쳓뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ훐맺놾췢쳓뗄훷튪쟽뚯틲쯘쫇췢햮퓶볓ꆢ놾뇒룟맀틔벰헾훎뫍뷰죚럧쿕ꎬ춬쪱췢믣뒢놸뗄퓶볓뛔훐맺놾췢쳓폐튻뚨뗄틖훆ퟷ폃ꆣ 퇮쪤룕ꎨ2003ꎩ춨맽붨솢ARDL쒣탍ꎬ뗃돶뷡싛ꎺ쟽뚯훐맺놾췢쳓뗄훷튪뺭볃틲쯘캪닆헾돠ퟖ퓶볓ꆢ헾훎뷰죚럧쿕뫍믣싊룟맀ꎬ쓚췢닮뇰듽폶쫇닺짺놾췢쳓뗄훘튪훆뛈틲쯘ꆣ 놾컄퓚죏헦ퟜ뷡쿠맘컄쿗뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ쫔춼듓쪵횤랽쏦닻쫶컒맺놾췢쳓뗄탎돉믺훆ꎬ쳘뇰쫇펰쿬컒맺놾췢쳓맦쒣뗄훘튪뚯틲ꆣ놾컄뗄뷡릹낲업죧쿂ꎺ뗚뛾늿럖뛔컒맺놾췢쳓뗄쿖ힴ뷸탐퇐뺿ꎬ뛔컒맺놾췢쳓뗄랶캧뷸탐쿞뚨ꎬ늢맀볆컒맺1982떽2004쓪볤놾췢쳓뗄맦쒣ꆣ뗚죽늿럖뾼싇떽쫽뻝뗄뿉뗃탔뫍볬퇩랽램뗄뫏샭탔ꎬ톡좡듺뇭탔뗄뇤솿뛔컒맺놾췢쳓뚯틲뷸탐쪵횤럖컶뫍맦랶럖컶ꆣퟮ뫳튻늿럖뷡뫏쪵횤럖컶뷡맻뛔뿘훆컒맺놾췢쳓쳡돶쿠펦뗄헾닟붨틩뫍놾컄뗄뷡싛ꆣ 뛾ꆢ훐맺놾췢쳓맦쒣뗄맀볆 1ꎮ놾췢쳓뚨틥벰웤닢솿ꆣ뛔놾췢쳓뗄맀닢폐샻폚듓뚨솿뗄뷇뛈살퇐뺿튻맺뗄놾췢쳓컊쳢ꆣ튻냣살쮵ꎬ뛔놾췢쳓뗄룅쓮뷧뚨늻춬ꎬ뛔놾췢쳓뗄맀닢랽램튲늻튻퇹ꆣ퓚톧쫵뷧ꎬ맘폚놾췢쳓뗄룅쓮뮹듦퓚ퟅ뷏듳뗄헹틩ꆣ맺쓚췢톧헟듓늻춬뗄뷇뛈룸놾췢쳓뚨틥ꎬ듺뇭탔뗄폐맺쏱킧폃쮵ꆢ뚯틲쮵ꆢ캥놳짧믡웵풼쮵ꆢ닺ퟩ뫏쮵뫍늻뛔돆럧쿕쮵뗈뗈ꆣ놾컄늻퓙쳖싛놾췢쳓뚨틥랽쏦뗄컊쳢ꎬ붫횱뷓뷨폃퇮쪤룕ꎨ2003ꎩ뗄뚨틥ꎺ놾췢쳓쫇놾훊짏뎬돶헾뢮뿘훆랶캧뗄ꎬ놾맺뻓쏱캪쪵쿖닺뗄쫕틦탔ꆢ낲좫탔ꆢ놣쏜탔욽뫢뛸붫닺틆떽맺췢뗄럇헽뎣뗄놾쇷뚯ꆣ쒿잰뛔놾췢쳓뗄닢솿ꎬ뿉틔붫웤맩캪틔쿂죽훖랽램ꎺ 튻쫇횱뷓닢솿램ꎬ쯼횱뷓폃맺볊쫕횧욽뫢뇭훐뗄컳닮폫틅슩볓짏럇틸탐쮽죋늿쏅뛌웚놾쇷돶살맀볆놾췢쳓뛮ꆣ뛾쫇볤뷓닢솿램ꎬ쯼붫췢햮퓶볓뛮뫍췢맺횱뷓춶뺻쇷죫뾴돉튻맺뗄뷰살풴ꎬ뒢놸닺퓶볓뛮뫍뺭뎣쿮쒿쓦닮퓲놻쫓캪뷰퓋폃ꆣ뷰살풴듳폚뷰퓋폃뗄쫽뛮벴캪놾췢쳓ꆣ죽쫇믬뫏닢솿램ꎬ쯼뾼싇떽쿲맺쓚맙랽믺릹놨룦춶쫕틦뗄췢쇷놾늻펦쫓캪놾췢쳓ꎬ평듋펦붫듋듓놾췢쳓뗄맀볆뛮훐복좥ꎬ벴닉폃튻훖붫횱뷓닢솿뫍볤뷓닢솿쿠믬뫏뗄튻훖랽램살맀볆놾췢쳓뛮ꆣ 2ꎮ훐맺놾췢쳓맦쒣뗄맀볆ꆣ맺쓚톧헟듳뛠닉폃볤뷓램닢솿컒맺뗄놾췢쳓맦쒣ꎬ늢쟒룹뻝룷ퟔ룸뚨뗄놾췢쳓랶돫뗄늻춬ꎬ뛔믹놾뗄볤뷓닢솿램뷸탐쇋탞헽ꆣ퓚헢샯붫닉폃퇮쪤룕ꎨ2003ꎩ뛔컒맺놾췢쳓맀볆뗄쫽뻝ꎬ늻쇭탐볆쯣ꎬ웤훐1982ꆪ2002쓪쫽뻝횱뷓퓋폃퇮컄훐쫽뻝ꎬ2003쓪뫍2004쓪쫽뻝룹뻝퇮컄쯹쳡릩뗄랽램맀볆뗃돶ꆣ컒맺1982ꆪ2004쓪놾췢쳓맦쒣죧춼1쯹쪾ꆣ 450 400 350 300250 200 놾췢쳓150 10050 0 -50 -100쓪럝 쇏살풴ꎺꆶ훐맺뷰죚쓪본ꆷ쿠맘룷웚ꆣ 춼1 1982ꆫ2004쓪훐맺놾췢쳓맦쒣 틚쏀풪19821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004
죽ꆢ훐맺놾췢쳓뚯틲뗄쪵횤럖컶 ꎨ튻ꎩ훐맺놾췢쳓뗄훷튪뻶뚨틲쯘 맺쓚췢톧헟뛔놾췢쳓뚯틲튲ퟷ쇋뷏캪쿪쾸뗄퇐뺿ꎬ늢듓뛠룶랽쏦톡좡뇤솿틔웚룼좫쏦랴펳펰쿬놾췢쳓뗄펰쿬틲쯘ꆣ놾컄퓚듋믹뒡짏늢뾼싇떽쫽뻝뗄뿉믱뗃탔ꎬ톡좡맺쓚췢샻싊쮮욽닮틬ꆢ죋쏱뇒뫚쫐믣싊틧볛ꆢ췢햮ힴ뿶ꆢ뷰죚톹훆ힴ뿶뫍쓚췢닮뇰듽폶ힴ뿶뗈뇤솿ퟷ캪놾췢쳓뗄뿉쓜펰쿬틲쯘뷸탐볆솿럖컶ꎬ헒돶펰쿬훐맺놾췢쳓뗄훷튪틲쯘벰웤펰쿬킧솦ꆣ쿂쏦룹뻝샭싛쒣탍ꎬ뻍룷펰쿬틲쯘뛔놾췢쳓뗄풤웚펰쿬뷸탐쳖싛ꎺ 1ꎮ맺쓚췢샻싊쮮욽닮틬ꆣ룹뻝놾췢쳓뗄닺ퟩ뫏쒣탍ꎬ맺쓚췢샻닮쫇펰쿬놾쇷뚯뗄튻룶훘튪틲쯘ꆣ맺쓚쪵볊샻싊쮮욽뗍폚맺췢쪵볊샻싊쮮욽뿉틔쮵쫇맺쓚뻓쏱틔맺췢닺쳦듺맺쓚닺뗄훷튪폕틲ꎬ쓇쎴맺췢쪵볊샻싊쮮욽폺룟폚맺쓚쪵볊샻싊쮮욽ꎬ놾췢쳓풽듳ꆣ헢룶뇤솿훷튪랴펳튻룶뫪맛뺭볃쏦뗄쟩뿶ꆣ 2ꎮ죋쏱뇒뫚쫐믣싊틧볛ꆣ믣싊룟맀틢캶ퟅ퓶볓뻓쏱뛔놾뇒뇡횵뗄풤웚ꎬ뛸믣싊뇡횵붫퓬돉맺쓚쪵볊쫕죫뫍닺볛횵뗄복짙ꎬ틲듋닺쯹폐헟믡쿫뺡튻쟐냬램냼삨놾췢쳓살맦뇜믣싊럧쿕ꆣ컒맺쒿잰죋쏱뇒믣싊쪵탐뗄쫇뚢힡쏀풪뗄만뚨믣싊훆ꎬ놾컄캪쇋랴펳죋쏱뇒믣싊룟맀쟩뿶닉좡죋쏱뇒뫚쫐믣싊틧볛뇤솿ꎬ틲캪뫚쫐믣싊틧볛훷튪평솽랽쏦틲쯘뻶뚨ꎺ벴죋쏱뇒믣싊룟맀뗄돌뛈폫맺쓚췢놾맜훆뫍췢믣맜훆뗄퇏룱돌뛈ꆣ떫쫇헢솽랽쏦뛔놾췢쳓뗄펰쿬쫇늻춬뗄ꆣ뻟쳥살붲ꎺ죋쏱뇒믣싊룟맀믡떼훂죋쏱뇒뇡횵풤웚뗄탎돉ꎬ뷸뛸췆뚯놾췢쳓ꎻ뛸퇏룱뗄놾맜훆뫍췢믣맜훆튻랽쏦믡듌벤놾췢쳓ꎬ쇭튻랽쏦폖믡쿞훆놾췢쳓ꆣ죧맻쪵횤볬퇩뷡맻뇭쏷죋쏱뇒뫚쫐믣싊틧볛폫놾췢쳓헽쿠맘ꎬ쓇쎴쮵쏷죋쏱뇒믣싊룟맀퓚뫚쫐믣싊틧볛훐웰뻶뚨탔ퟷ폃ꎬ늢쟒췆뚯놾췢쳓ꎻ랴횮퓲쮵쏷퇏룱뗄췢믣맜훆퓚뫚쫐믣싊틧볛훐웰뻶뚨탔ퟷ폃ꎬ뛸쟒쯼뛔놾췢쳓웰떽뗄쿞훆탔ퟷ폃뎬맽쇋쯼뗄췆뚯탔ퟷ폃ꎨ샮쟬퓆ꆢ쳯쿾쾼ꎬ2000ꎩꆣ 3ꎮ췢햮ힴ뿶ꆣ떱튻맺췢햮퓶볓ꎬ평폚뻓쏱죏쪶떽헾뢮뷨죫췢햮믡틽웰릫훚뛔붫살쮰쫕뢺떣뫍춨믵엲헍뗄풤웚ꎬ떱풤웚쮰뢺듯떽튻뚨돌뛈쪱ꎬ뻍믡떼훂놾맺놾췢쳓ꆣ떱좻ꎬ놾맺췢햮뗄퓶볓튲뿉쓜쫇평놾췢쳓틽웰뗄ꎬ벴평폚놾췢쇷퓶볓ꎬ췢믣뒢놸쿂붵ꎬ퓲늻뗃늻퓶볓췢햮살캪뷸뿚죚ꆣ틲뛸ꎬ놾췢쳓폫췢햮퓶볓횮볤튲뿉쓜듦퓚뮥캪펰쿬뗄춬쪱탔컊쳢ꆣ 4ꎮ뷰죚톹훆ힴ뿶ꆣ뷰죚톹훆쫇평폚헾뢮떱뻖쪵탐맽럖룉풤뫍맜훆뗄뷰죚헾닟ꎬ붫뷰죚닺뗄볛룱죋캪톹뗍쯹퓬돉뗄뷰죚쳥쾵폫쪵쳥뺭볃듴훍실뫳뗄쿖쿳ꆣ훷튪뇭쿖캪믵뇒뮯돌뛈뗍ꎬ뷰죚쳥쾵돊쿖뛾풪뷡릹ꎬ뷰죚쳥훆늻뫏샭뫍헾뢮뗄늻쫊떱룉풤ꆣ헢킩뚼볓듳쇋맺쓚춶뫍닺볛룱뗄늻좷뚨탔ꆣ죧맻튻맺뷰죚톹훆돌뛈풽듳ꎬ쓇쎴놾췢쳓풽퇏훘ꆣ 5ꎮ쓚췢닮뇰듽폶ힴ뿶ꆣ쯦ퟅ20쫀볍90쓪듺랢햹훐맺볒샻폃췢랽쪽평볤뷓춶뇤캪횱뷓춶ꎬ탭뛠톧헟쿲췢맺횱뷓춶폫놾췢쳓쿠뮥맘쾵뗄퇐뺿ꎬ뗃돶헾뢮뛔뻓쏱뫍럇뻓쏱퓚쮰쫕ꆢ춶ꆢ췢믣맜샭뗈랽쏦쪵탐웧쫓듽폶ꎬ쪹솽헟쏦쇙늻뛔돆탔럧쿕ꎬ헢쫇떼훂놾췢쳓뗄훘튪풭틲ꆣ죴췢쳓평놾맺춶뮷뺳틽웰ꎬ퓲떱뫪맛뺭볃뮷뺳룄짆쪱ꎬ횱뷓춶퓶볓ꎬ놾맺놾췢쳓붵뗍ꎻ죴췢쳓평쓚췢닮뇰듽폶믲럇램놾쾴잮믮뚯틽웰ꎬ췢맺횱뷓춶캪놾췢쳓쳡릩죚ꎬ퓲췢맺횱뷓춶퓶볓춬쪱놾췢쳓듳솿퓶볓ꆣ훐맺듓1993쓪웰췢맺횱뷓춶쇷죫뛮듳솿뎬맽췢햮쇷죫뛮ꎬ평폚쓚췢퓚뺺헹훐돶폚늻욽뗈뗄뗘캻ꎬ캪쇋쿭쫜췢짭럝듸살뗄뎬맺쏱듽폶ꎬ맺쓚뻓쏱쫜뎬맺쏱듽폶뚯솦뗄컼틽ꎬ붫뷰틆떽맺췢뫳훘탂믘쇷ꎬ틔뷸탐훆뛈톰ퟢꎨ퇮쪤룕ꎬ2000ꎩꆣ ꎨ뛾ꎩ쪵횤쒣탍뇤솿뗄톡좡벰쫽뻝살풴 믹폚짏쫶뛔놾췢쳓뻶뚨틲쯘뗄럖컶ꎬ컒쏇톡퓱쿂쇐뇤솿뷸탐볆솿뺭볃쒣탍뗄럖컶ꆣ 1ꎮ틲뇤솿놾췢쳓CFꆣ잰컄뛔컒맺놾췢쳓뗄닢솿틑뷸탐쇋쮵쏷ꎬ컒쏇닉폃뗄퇹놾쟸볤캪1982ꆪ2004쓪ꎬ웤훐1982ꆪ2002쓪뗄쫽뻝좡ퟔ퇮쪤룕ꎨ2003ꎩꎬ2003뫍2004쓪쫽뻝룹
뻝퇮쪤룕ꎨ2003ꎩ쯹쳡릩뗄랽램맀볆뗃살ꆣ 2ꎮ뷢쫍뇤솿ꆣ맺쓚췢샻싊쮮욽닮틬INTDIFFꆣ퓚헢샯ꎬ맺쓚뗄쏻틥샻싊틀뻝맺쓚뻓쏱뒢탮듦뿮튻쓪웚헻듦헻좡듦뿮샻싊ꎬ뛔폚떱쓪릫늼벸듎샻싊뗄쓪럝뷸탐볓좨욽뻹뒦샭ꆣ맺쓚컯볛횸쫽폃뻓쏱쿻럑볛룱횸쫽ꎨCPIꎩ뇭쪾ꎬ늢뻝듋뗃돶맺쓚춨믵엲헍싊ꆣ쏻틥샻싊복좥춨믵엲헍싊벴뗃맺쓚쪵볊샻싊쮮욽ꆣ튻쓪웚뒢탮듦뿮샻싊뫍뻓쏱쿻럑볛룱횸쫽뻹살풴폚ꆶ훐맺뷰죚쓪본ꆷ뫍ꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ쿠맘룷웚ꆣ춬쪱샻폃쏀맺솪냮믹뷰샻싊살듺뇭맺췢쏻틥샻싊ꎬ폃쏀맺뗄쿻럑볛룱횸쫽뇭쪾맺췢쫐뎡뗄컯볛쮮욽늢뻝듋볆쯣돶맺췢춨믵엲헍싊ꎬ헢퇹뻍뿉틔뗃돶맺췢쫐뎡뗄쪵볊샻싊쮮욽ꆣ웤쫽뻝살풴폚맺볊믵뇒믹뷰ퟩ횯ꎨIMFꎩꎺInternational Financial Statistics쿠맘룷웚ꆣ맺쓚췢샻싊쮮욽닮틬INTDIFF평맺췢샻싊복좥맺쓚샻싊뇭쪾ꆣ 죋쏱뇒뫚쫐믣싊틧볛PBMꆣ훷튪쫇죋쏱뇒뫚쫐믣싊뇈맙랽믣싊룟맀돌뛈ꆣ룹뻝World Currency Yearbookꎨ1985ꆢ1988ꆢ1989ꎩꎬ퇮몣헤ꆢ싞폀솢ꎨ2002ꎩ뫍퇮쪤룕ꎨ2003ꎩ폐맘쫽뻝볆쯣뗃돶ꆣ 췢햮ힴ뿶DETGDPꆣ캪컒맺쎿쓪뛔췢햮컱폠뛮햼GDP뗄뇈훘ꎬ룹뻝ꆶ훐맺뛔췢뺭볃춳볆쓪본ꆷ뫍ꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ쿠맘룷웚쫽뻝볆쯣뗃돶ꆣ 뷰죚톹훆ힴ뿶MGDPꆣ튻냣살붲튻맺뷰죚짮뮯돌뛈닢솿횸뇪횮튻쫇맣틥믵뇒릩룸M2폫맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵GDP뗄뇈횵ꎬ놾컄훐붫샻폃헢룶뇈횵ퟷ캪컒맺뷰죚톹훆ힴ뿶뗄듺샭뇤솿ꆣ평ꆶ훐맺뷰죚쓪본ꆷ뫍ꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ쿠맘룷웚쫽뻝볆쯣뗃돶ꆣ 쓚췢닮뇰듽폶ힴ뿶FDIꆣ듓뿉솿뮯탔뫍뷢쫍뇤솿뗄듺뇭탔솽룶뷇뛈돶랢ꎬ컒쏇톡좡컒맺쎿쓪쪵볊샻폃뗄췢맺횱뷓춶뛮FDIퟷ캪랴펳쓚췢닮뇰듽폶뗄듺샭뇤솿ꆣ쫽뻝살풴폚ꆶ훐맺뛔췢뺭볃춳볆쓪본ꆷ쿠맘룷웚ꆣ 룹뻝짏쏦뗄럖컶ꎬ놾컄붫뷢쫍훐맺놾췢쳓펰쿬틲쯘뗄볆솿쒣탍짨뚨캪ꎺ CF=a+aINTDIFF+aPBM+aDETGDP+aMGDP+aFDI+ε t01t2t3t4t5tt룹뻝놾췢쳓샭싛ꎬ펦폐ꎺa>0ꎬa>0ꎬa<0ꎬ뛸a뫍a럻뫅듽뚨ꆣ죧맻a>0ꎬ134252쮵쏷죋쏱뇒믣싊룟맀탎돉죋쏱뇒뇡횵풤웚ꎬ떼훂놾췢쳓ꎻ죧맻a<0퓲쮵쏷놾쿮쒿뫍췢2믣맜훆뛔놾췢쳓웰떽뗄쿞훆ퟷ폃뎬맽쇋쯼뗄췆뚯ퟷ폃ꆣ죧맻a>0퓲놾췢쳓평쓚췢폅5믝헾닟뫍럇램놾뗄쾴잮틽웰ꎬ죧맻a<0퓲놾췢쳓평놾맺춶뮷뺳뗄뛱뮯틽웰ꆣ 5 ꎨ죽ꎩ쪵횤뷡맻뗄맀볆 1ꎮ뇤솿뗄쪱볤탲쇐쳘탔ꆣ틔쪱볤탲쇐캪틀뻝뗄뺭퇩럖컶뚼볙뚨쪱볤탲쇐쫇욽컈뗄ꎨStationaryꎩꆣ맣틥뗘쮵ꎬ죧맻튻룶쯦믺맽돌뗄뻹횵뫍랽닮퓚쪱볤맽돌짏뚼쫇뎣쫽ꎬ늢쟒퓚죎뫎솽쪱웚횮볤뗄킭랽닮뷶틀삵폚룃솽쪱웚볤뗄뻠샫믲훍뫳ꎬ뛸늻틀삵폚볆쯣헢룶킭랽닮뗄쪵볊쪱볤ꎬ뻍돆웤캪욽컈ꆣ죧맻튻룶풭쪼탲쇐욽컈ꎬ컒쏇돆횮캪I(0)맽돌ꆣ죧맻튻룶풭쪼쪱볤탲쇐늻욽컈ꎬ뛸뺭맽튻뷗닮럖뇤돉욽컈뗄ꎬ컒쏇뻍쮵풭쪼ꎨ쯦믺ꎩ탲쇐쫇튻뷗쟳믽ꎬ볲돆I(1)ꆣ 뇭1쇐돶쇋룷쪱볤탲쇐뗄ADF떥캻룹볬퇩뷡맻ꎬ볬퇩맽돌훐죧맻뇤솿탲쇐뇭쿖돶쏷쿔뗄쪱볤쟷쫆ꎬ쓇쎴퓚볬퇩뗄랽돌훐뻍냼삨쪱볤믲쟷쫆뇤솿ꆣ볬퇩랽돌뗄훍뫳뷗쫽룹뻝AIC뫍SC램퓲좷뚨ꆣ 듓뇭1뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ룷뇤솿탲쇐쮮욽횵ADF볬퇩횵뗄뻸뛔횵뻹킡폚쇙뷧횵뗄뻸뛔횵ꎬ쮵쏷쯼쏇뚼늻쓜뻜뻸풭볙짨ꎬ룷탲쇐뚼쫇럇욽컈뗄ꆣ떫쫇룷탲쇐튻뷗닮럖ADF볬퇩횵뗄뻸뛔횵뚼듳폚쇙뷧횵뗄뻸뛔횵ꎬ뻹쫇쿔훸뗄ꎬ쯹틔룷뇤솿탲쇐뗄튻뷗닮럖쫇욽컈뗄ꎬ늢쟒뻹캪I(1)ꆣ놾컄쪵횤뷡맻뻹평죭볾볆쯣뗃돶ꆣ
뇭1 뇤솿쪱볤탲쇐뗄떥캻룹ꎨADFꎩ볬퇩뷡맻 뇤솿 볬퇩샠탍 볬퇩횵 쇙뷧횵 CF ꎨCꎬ0ꎬ5ꎩ ꎨCꎬ0ꎬ1ꎩ 쮮욽PBM ꎨCꎬ0ꎬ1ꎩ횵DETGDP ꎨCꎬtꎬ4ꎩ MGDP ꎨCꎬtꎬ1ꎩ ꎨCꎬtꎬ1ꎩ CF ꎨCꎬ0ꎬ1ꎩ튻INTDIFF ꎨCꎬ0ꎬ1ꎩ 뷗PBM ꎨCꎬ0ꎬ1ꎩ**닮럖DETGDP ꎨCꎬtꎬ1ꎩ MGDP ꎨCꎬtꎬ1ꎩ**FDI ꎨCꎬ0ꎬ5ꎩ ** 힢ꎺ(1)볬퇩샠탍훐C듺뇭몬폐뎣쫽쿮ꎬt듺뇭몬폐쟷쫆쿮ꎬ쫽ퟖ듺뇭훍뫳뷗쫽ꆣ (2) **뇭쪾퓚10ꎥ뗄훃탅쮮욽ꎬ웤쯻퓚1ꎥ뗄훃탅쮮욽ꆣ 2ꎮ쪵횤쒣탍뗄맀볆ꆣ틲캪컒쏇틑뺭퇩횤룷뇤솿탲쇐쫇I(1)벴뻟폐튻뷗헻탍뗄탲쇐ꆣ떱솽룶I(1)탲쇐뗄쿟탔ퟩ뫏쫇I(0)쪱ꎬ쯼쏇횮볤뇣폐쇋킭헻맘쾵ꆣJohansen킭헻볬퇩쳡릩쇋솽룶믲룼뛠뗄럇컈뚨쪱볤탲쇐뎤웚뻹뫢맘쾵뗄춳볆뚨틥ꆣ퓚킭헻볬퇩훐ꎬ컒쏇샻폃Schwarz탅쾢뇪ힼ램살좷뚨VAR훐쫊떱뗄훍뫳뎤뛈ꆣ평탅쾢뇪ힼ램좷뚨ퟮ병뗄훍뫳쫽캪1ꆣ폃Johansen킭헻볬퇩뗃떽뗄뷡맻죧뇭2쯹쪾ꆣ 뇭2A Johansen킭헻훈볬퇩 퇹놾쟸볤ꎺ1982쓪~2004쓪ꎻ 퇹놾쫽ꎺ22ꎻ 쟷쫆볙뚨ꎺ컞좷뚨쟷쫆 훍뫳볤룴ꎺ1ꎻ 탲쇐ꎺCFꆢINTDIFFꆢPBMꆢDETGDPꆢMGDPꆢFDIꎻ 럇쿞뚨탔킭헻훈볬퇩볙뚨뗄CE쫽솿 쳘헷횵 벫듳쳘헷춳볆솿 5%쇙뷧횵 1%쇙뷧횵** 컞 ** ퟮ뛠1룶 ** ퟮ뛠2룶 * ퟮ뛠3룶 ퟮ뛠4룶 ퟮ뛠5룶 ***힢ꎺ(1)ꎨꎩ뇭쪾퓚5%ꎨ1%ꎩ쿔훸탔쮮욽짏뻜뻸볙짨ꆣ (2).볬퇩뇭쏷퓚5%쿔훸쮮욽짏듦퓚쯄룶킭헻랽돌ꆣ
뇭2B Johansen킭헻쿲솿 CF INTDIFF PBM DETGDP MGDP FDI ꎨꎩ ꎨꎩ ꎨꎩ ꎨꎩ ꎨꎩ 뛔쫽쯆좻횵 죧뇭2A쯹쪾ꎬJohansen킭헻훈볬퇩뇭쏷퓚퇹놾쟸볤쓚ꎬ룷룶뇤솿횮볤듦퓚ퟅ튻훂킭헻뗄쿲솿믲뎤웚뗄뻹뫢맘쾵ꆣ평뇭4B뗃횪ꎬ킭헻쿲솿뗄쾵쫽맀볆캪ꎺ ′β=ꎨꎬꎬꎬꎬꎬꎩ 쪽훐뗄횵뚼ퟶ쇋맦랶뮯ꎬ틲듋맀볆랽돌뿉틔뇭쪾 CF=INTDIFF+PBM+DETGDP− ++εtttttttꎨ쯄ꎩ쪵횤뷡맻뗄럖컶 듓맀볆랽돌뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ쯹폐뇤솿뗄맀볆쾵쫽뚼뷏캪쿔훸ꆣ듓ퟷ폃킧맻뾴틀듎캪ꎺ맺쓚췢샻닮ꆢ췢햮ힴ뿶ꆢ췢맺횱뷓춶ꆢ뷰죚짮뮯ힴ뿶뫍뫚쫐믣싊틧볛ꆣ듓럻뫅짏뾴ꎬ돽쇋뷰죚짮뮯뛔놾췢쳓폐뻟폐틖훆ퟷ폃틔췢ꎬ쯹폐틲쯘뛔놾췢쳓뻟폐쿠떱돌뛈뗄췆뚯ퟷ폃ꆣ뻟쳥살붲뿉틔뗃떽틔쿂뷡싛ꎺ 1ꎮ맺쓚췢쪵볊샻싊뗄닮틬뛔놾췢쳓웰쿔훸ퟷ폃ꆣ퓚맀볆랽돌훐ꎬ맺쓚췢쪵볊샻싊닮틬뗄쾵쫽듯떽쇋ꎬ늢쟒t횵캪ꆣ웤쾵쫽퓚룷뷢쫍뇤솿훐ퟮ듳ꎬ늢쟒t횵튲쿠떱쿔훸ꎬ헢킩쮵쏷맺쓚췢쪵볊샻싊닮틬뗄킡럹뇤뮯ꎬ뚼붫뛔놾췢쳓닺짺훘듳펰쿬ꆣ퓚컒맺샻싊쎻폐쪵쿖쫐뎡뮯ꎬ샻싊뗈뺭볃횸뇪듦퓚얤쟺ꆣ컒맺캪쇋캬돖룟뺭볃퓶뎤싊ꎬ뎤웚쪵쪩삩헅탔믵뇒헾닟ꎬ쳘뇰쫇ퟔ1997쓪틔살캪냚췑춨믵뷴쯵뻖쏦뛸뛠듎쿂뗷쏻틥샻싊ꎬ헢폫컷랽랢듯맺볒쿠뇈웕뇩뷏뗍ꎬ뛸쟒컒맺뗄쪵볊샻싊퓚탭뛠쓪럝욫뗍ꆣ맺쓚췢샻닮떼훂컒맺뗄훰샻탔놾듳솿췢쇷ꆣ쯹틔쫊떱뗄쳡룟쏻틥샻싊믡퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏컼틽뻓쏱뒢탮ꎬ뷸뛸죵뮯춶헟쿲뺳췢틆놾뗄틢풸ꎬ뛸쟒웤ퟷ폃쫇쏷쿔뗄ꆣ듓샻싊틲쯘뛔놾췢쳓펰쿬뗄쪵횤럖컶살뾴ꎬ놾뗄훰샻탔뗄좷퓚놾췢쳓훐웰떽쇋훘튪뗄뻶뚨ퟷ폃ꎬ맺쓚췢샻싊뗄룟뗍닮틬쪹놾뗄뗘쟸쫕틦듦퓚닮뻠ꎬ뛸놾뛔샻죳뗄ힷ훰틽떼ퟅ놾쇷쿲룟쫕틦뗘쟸ꆣ 2ꎮ컒맺뗄췢햮ힴ뿶튲쫇틽웰놾췢쳓뗄훘튪틲쯘ꆣ퓚컒맺ꎬ췢햮폠뛮뗄훰쓪퓶볓ꎬ늢쟒췢햮폠뛮폫GDP뗄뇈횵튲쫇훰쓪짏짽ꎬ돖탸뗄췢햮퓶볓룸맺쓚춶헟탎돉헢퇹튻훖풤웚ꎺ캴살헾뢮붫믡볓듳맺쓚쮰쫕솦뛈믲춨맽춨믵엲헍쮰살뎥뮹맽뛠뗄췢햮ꎬ춶폚맺쓚뗄닺웤쫕틦폐붵뗍뗄쟷쫆믲헟놻뢯쪴뗄캣쿕ꎬ쓇쎴췢햮뗄퓶볓벤샸맺쓚춶헟춶폚맺췢ꎬ삩듳놾췢쳓ꆣ듓쒣탍맀볆뗄쾵쫽살뾴ꎬ췢햮햼GDP뇈훘튲듯떽쇋ꎬ늢쟒t횵캪ꎬ뫜쿔훸ꆣ쮵쏷컒맺췢햮퓶볓뛔놾췢쳓뗄펰쿬뇈뷏듳ꎬ떱컒맺헾뢮퓚듳솿뷨죫췢햮쪱ꎬ좴폐튻늿럖뷰쳓뇜떽맺췢틔뇜쏢캴살퓶볓뗄럧쿕ꎬ쯹틔붵뗍컒맺췢햮폠뛮폐샻폚붵뗍놾췢쳓맦쒣ꆣ 3ꎮ컒맺뫚쫐믣싊틧볛폫놾췢쳓헽쿠맘ꎬ헢쮵쏷컒맺뫚쫐믣싊틧볛랴펳쇋컒맺믣싊룟맀ힴ뿶ꎬ탎돉쇋죋쏱뇒믣싊뇡횵풤웚ꎬ듙뷸놾췢쳓ꆣ컒맺죋쏱뇒믣싊퓚1994쓪룄룯잰튻횱쪵탐뗄쮫맬훆믣싊ꎬ헢훖훆뛈낲업듦퓚ퟅ뷏듳뗄좱쿝ꎬ웤훷튪뇭쿖뻍쫇죋쏱뇒믣싊뎤웚틔살뒦폚룟맀ힴ첬ꎬ퓚믣싊뗄탎돉맽돌훐죋캪틲쯘맽뛠ꆣ쯹틔쎿떱맙랽믣싊뷸탐쿂뗷쪱ꎬퟜ쫇냩쯦ퟅ췢믣뗷볁쫐뎡짏죋쏱뇒믣싊뗄듳럹쿂붵ꎬ헢훖믣싊뗄뺭뎣늨뚯죝틗퓬돉뻓쏱탄샭짏뗄뿖믅ꎬ쯻쏇벴쪹쫇돶폚“놣횵”뗄쒿뗄튲쟣쿲폚붫죋쏱뇒뛒뮻돉쏀풪뗈췢맺닺뷸탐놣듦ꎬ헢컞틉볓듳쇋훐맺놾췢쳓뗄맦쒣ꆣ쫂쪵짏쪵볊믣싊뗄룟맀튻횱쫇듳뛠쫽랢햹훐맺볒놾췢쳓뗄훷튪풭틲ꎬ쯼튲릹돉쇋1994쓪틔잰훐맺놾췢쳓뗄튻룶훘튪틲쯘ꆣ떫쫇컒쏇뿉틔듓쒣탍훐뾴돶ꎬ뫚쫐믣싊틧볛뛔놾췢쳓뗄맀볆쾵쫽뷶캪ꎬ펰쿬늻쫇뫜듳ꎬ헢쮵쏷헢벸쓪평폚컒맺뫪맛뺭볃탎쫆뗄뫃ꎬ뫚쫐믣싊틧볛훰늽붵뗍ꎬ죋쏱뇒뇡횵풤웚훰붥복죵ꆣ쳘뇰쫇퓚2004쓪틔살죋쏱뇒짽횵톹솦풽살풽듳ꎬ폐듳솿뗄맺볊폎쇷죫컒맺뺳쓚ꎬ퓬돉컒맺맺볊뒢놸톸쯙퓶뎤ꎬ쯹틔듓쒿잰쟩뿶살뾴ꎬ죋쏱뇒믣싊뗄풤웚뇤뚯늻믡뛔놾췢쳓퓬돉훘튪펰쿬ꆣ
4ꎮ췢맺횱뷓춶튲듙뷸쇋놾췢쳓ꎬ헢쮵쏷컒맺쓚췢닮뇰듽폶뫍럇램놾쾴잮틽웰쇋컒맺뗄놾췢쳓ꆣ퓚쒣탍훐췢맺횱뷓춶뗄맀볆쾵쫽캪ꎬ캪헽횵ꎬꆣ룹뻝잰컄럖컶맀볆쾵쫽캪헽쮵쏷뛔췢뗄뎬맺쏱듽폶쪹튻늿럖쓚췢쇷뫳ꎬ퓙틔“췢”뗄짭럝훘탂쓚쇷ꆣ컒맺뛔췢튻횱쪵탐뗄쫇“뎬맺쏱듽폶”ꎬ퓚쮰쫕ꆢ뷸돶뿚뺭펪좨ꆢ췢믣쪹폃뗈랽쏦뚼룸폨쇋뷏캪쳘쫢뗄헾닟ꎬ헢뻍쪹쓚웳튵퓚뺺헹훐뒦폚늻샻뗘캻ꆣ틲듋튻킩쓚쿫랽짨램돶쳓떽맺췢ꎬ뺭맽냼ힰ뫳퓙틔“췢”뗄쏦쒿믘떽맺쓚뇣뿉쿭쫜폅믝ꆣ 5ꎮ뷰죚톹훆뛔놾췢쳓뗄펰쿬ꆣ놾컄붫맣틥믵뇒릩펦솿(M)폫맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵(GDP)뗄뇈2횵ퟷ캪뫢솿뷰죚짮뮯돌뛈뗄횸뇪ꆣ듓쒣탍뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ뷰죚짮뮯뛔놾췢쳓폐튻뚨뗄틖훆ퟷ폃ꆣ떫쫇맀볆쾵쫽뗄t횵뷶캪ꎬ늻첫쿔훸ꎬ튻랽쏦헢뿉쓜폫놾컄쯹톡퓱뗄듺샭뇤솿폐맘ꎬ폃룃횸뇪살듺쳦뷰죚짮뮯돌뛈쿔뗃싔캪볲떥ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ뷰죚짮뮯퓚붵뗍놾췢쳓뗄춬쪱튲틢캶ퟅ럅뾪뷰죚맜훆ꎬ헢캪놾췢쳓뒴퓬룼캪뇣샻뗄뮷뺳ꆣ쯹틔랴펳퓚쒣탍훐룃뇤솿맀볆쾵쫽늻쿔훸ꎬ뛸쟒펰쿬늻듳ꆣ 쯄ꆢ놾컄뷡싛 놾컄샻폃Johansen킭헻훈볬퇩ꎬ뗃돶놾췢쳓폫웤뻶뚨틲쯘횮볤뗄뎤웚뻹뫢맘쾵ꎬ춨맽뷡맻럖컶뗃돶ꎺꎨ1ꎩ쟽뚯훐맺놾췢쳓뗄훷튪뺭볃틲쯘캪맺쓚췢샻싊닮틬뫍컒맺췢햮폠뛮ힴ뿶ꆣꎨ2ꎩ1994쓪틔잰훐맺놾췢쳓뗄튻룶훘튪틲쯘쫇죋쏱뇒믣싊룟맀ꎬ떫쫇듓쒿잰쟩뿶살뾴ꎬ죋쏱뇒믣싊뗄풤웚뇤뚯늻믡뛔놾췢쳓퓬돉훘튪펰쿬ꆣꎨ3ꎩ췢맺횱뷓춶듙뷸쇋놾췢쳓ꎬ쮵쏷쇋쓚췢쳓뫳믘쇷틔믱뗃폅믝듽폶뫍럇램쾴잮쫇컒맺놾췢쳓닺짺뗄훘튪틲쯘ꆣ 룹뻝쪵횤뷡맻ꎬ뷡뫏컒맺쒿잰뺭볃탎쫆ꎬ놾컄죏캪펦듓틔쿂벸룶랽쏦살틖훆놾췢쳓ꎺ쫗쿈놣돖뫪맛뺭볃뗄컈뚨ꆣ닉폃쇩믮뗄샻싊뫍믣싊믺훆ꎬ놣돖쫊뛈뗄췢햮맦쒣ꆣ웤듎볓잿맺폐닺맜샭ꎬ췪짆릫쮾훎샭믺훆ꎬ훎샭뢯냜벰붡좫놣헏쮽죋닺좨뗄램싉훆뛈ꆣ퓙듎훆뚨뫏샭뗄췢헾닟ꎬ훰늽좡쿻쓚췢늻욽뗈뗘캻ꆣퟮ뫳믽벫췆뷸뷰죚짮뮯뷸돌ꎬ퓶잿놾맺뻓쏱뛔뷰죚쳥쾵뗄탅탄ꆣ 떱좻ꎬ놾컄쪵횤쒣탍튲듦퓚튻킩늻ퟣ횮뒦ꆣ튻쫇쫜떽쫽뻝뿉뗃탔뗄쿞훆ꎬ놾컄쯹닉폃뗄쫽뻝퇹놾욫킡ꎬ평폚맛닢횵뗄늻ퟣꎬ떼훂폐뫜뛠뇤솿컞램뷸죫쒣탍맀볆ꎬ뛔놾췢쳓펰쿬틲쯘뗄좫쏦탔럖컶폐쯹잷좱ꆣ뛾쫇튻킩훆뛈탔틲쯘ꎬ훮죧맺폐닺뮯릫캪쮽ꎬퟟ쮽ꆢ뢯냜ꆢ뛄늩뫍춵슩쮰뗈럇램쫕죫뗄틆ꎬ튲쫇놾췢쳓뗄훘튪뻶뚨틲쯘ꆣ떫쫇평폚웤솿뮯삧쓑ꎬ놾컄쎻폐톰쟳떽뫏쫊뗄듺샭뇤솿붫웤쓉죫쒣탍ꆣ 닎뾼컄쿗 [1] 몫볌퓆. 훐맺놾췢쳓쿖ힴꆢ돉틲벰럀훎닟싔[J]. 맺볊쎳틗싛첳ꎬ1999 (5). [2] 샮쟬퓆ꎬ쳯쿾쾼. 훐맺놾췢쳓뗄펰쿬틲쯘[J]. 쫀뷧뺭볃ꎬ2000 (9). [3] 샮탄떤ꎬ훓캰. 맺볊놾쳓뇜샭싛벰컒맺뗄쪵횤럖컶[J]. 춳볆퇐뺿ꎬ1998 (6). [4] 샮퇯. 훐맺뺭볃뛔췢뾪럅맽돌훐뗄뷰쇷뚯[J]. 뺭볃퇐뺿ꎬ1998 (2). [5] 죎믝. 훐맺놾췢쳓맦쒣닢쯣뫍뛔닟럖컶[J]. 뺭볃퇐뺿ꎬ2001 (11). [6] 쯎컄뇸. 훐맺놾췢쳓컊쳢뗄퇐뺿ꎺ1987—1997[J]. 뺭볃퇐뺿ꎬ1999 (5). [7] 쯎캬병. 훐맺놾췢쳓ꎺퟜ솿맀볆폫돉틲럖컶[J]. 닆뺭컊쳢퇐뺿ꎬ1999 (5). [8] 쳯쿾쾼ꎬ쳕좻럥. 놾췢쳓돉틲뗄샭싛ퟛ쫶[J]. 뺭볃톧뚯첬ꎬ2000 (1). [9] 퇮몣헤ꎬ싞솢폀. 훐맺놾췢쳓펰쿬틲쯘뗄볆솿럖컶[J]. 쫽샭춳볆폫맜샭ꎬ2002 (11). [10] 퇮쪤룕. 놾췢쳓폫훐맺뗄뛔닟[M]. 뎤즳: 뫾쓏듳톧돶냦짧ꎬ2003. [11] 퇮쪤룕ꎬ쇵ퟚ뮪. 놾췢쳓폫훐맺뗄쿖쪵톡퓱[J]. 뷰죚퇐뺿ꎬ2000 (2). An Empirical Analysis on the Reasons of China’s Capital Flight Weiguo Xiao Bing Shao
Abstract: The academic circle have showed their concerns over the issue of capital flight in developing countries since Latin American countries witnessed serious debt crisis occurred in 1980s. The financial crisis of 1990s has again revealed the severity of capital flight. As far as China is concerned, the problem of capital flight should not be ignored because of the development of transitional economy of China. This study presents the possible determinants of capital flight in China. We present a Johansen cointegration model. By the cointegration model, we get appropriate long run relationship between capital flight and its determinants. The empirical results imply that the difference between domestic and foreign interest rate, the foreign debt as a percentage of GDP, the overvaluation of the exchange rate, the discrimination between native and foreign capital, financial control are the main economic forcing factors of capital flight. Key Words: capital flight; reasons ; empirical analysis 쫕룥죕웚ꎺ2006-12-20 ퟷ헟뷩짜ꎺ키컀맺ꎬ뺭볃톧늩쪿ꎬ커몺듳톧뺭볃폫맜샭톧풺뷰죚쾵뷌쫚ꎻ짛뇸ꎬ훐맺틸볠믡낲믕볠맜뻖ꆣ
