南京航空航天大学硕士学位论文江苏省财产保险经营绩效评价研究姓名：何一申请学位级别：硕士专业：企业管理指导教师：曹锟生2011-03
쓏뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 햪튪 뷸죫20쫀볍90쓪듺ꎬ냩쯦컒맺놣쿕쫐뎡뗄룄룯뾪럅ꎬ놣쿕튵랢햹춻량쏍뷸ꎬ놣럑쫕죫뗄퓶뎤싊풶풶뎬맽쇋GDP뗄퓶뎤싊ꆣ쳘뇰쫇퓚볓죫WTO뫳ꎬ컒맺놣쿕쫐뎡뷸튻늽뾪럅ꎬ췢놣쿕릫쮾럗럗뷸훐맺쫐뎡ꎬ룸훐놣쿕릫쮾듸살쇋뻞듳뗄뺺헹톹솦ꆣퟜ쳥짏붲ꎬ훐췢놣쿕릫쮾뗄뺺헹튲벯훐뇭쿖캪벨킧뗄뺺헹ꎬ벨킧쫇놣쿕릫쮾ퟛ뫏쪵솦뗄쳥쿖ꆣ 컄헂퓋폃웳튵햽싔맜샭뗈샭싛ꎬ틔붭쯕쪡훷튪닆닺놣쿕릫쮾캪움볛뛔쿳ꎬ퓚돤럖뷨본맺쓚췢놣쿕탐튵뺭펪벨킧움볛랽램뫍횸뇪쳥쾵뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ톡좡쫊폃폚놣쿕탐튵뗄뺭펪벨킧움볛횸뇪ꆣ늢룹뻝닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뗄쪵볊쳘뗣ꎬ틽죫벼쫵쓜솦벰쫐뎡쓜솦뗈럇닆컱횸뇪ꎬ붫웤쓉죫움볛횸뇪쳥쾵ꆣ듓뛸릹붨쇋놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛횸뇪쳥쾵ꎬ늢뷸튻늽붨솢쫊뫏닆닺놣쿕릫쮾쪵볊쟩뿶뗄뺭펪벨킧움볛쒣탍ꎬ뛔붭쯕쪡쓚훷튪닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧ퟶ돶ퟛ뫏볆럖ꎬ듓훐헒돶쇋펰쿬닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뗄맘볼탔틲쯘벰랢햹뛔닟ꆣ틔웚뛔붭쯕쪡쓋훁좫맺랶캧쓚닺쿕튵뗄랢햹웰떽튻뚨샭싛뫍쪵볊뗄뷨본ퟷ폃ꆣ 놾컄좫쏦쾵춳뗄럖컶쇋놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛횸뇪쳥쾵붨솢뗄컊쳢ꎬ쳡돶쇋튻룶뷏캪좫쏦랴펳놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뗄ퟛ뫏움볛랽램ꆣ늢뿋럾쇋훷맛뢳좨뗄좱쿝ꎬ붨솢쇋룼캪뿍맛뗄쫊뫏놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛볆럖쒣탍ꎬ쪹퇐뺿룼뻟폐뿆톧탔ꆣ춨맽놾컄뗄퇐뺿ꎬ뛔뿆톧움볛닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧ꎬ쳡짽릫쮾뫋탄뺺헹솦ꎬ뻟폐튻뚨뗄샭싛퇐뺿뫍쿖쪵틢틥ꆣ ?맘볼듊ꎺ닆닺놣쿕릫쮾ꎬ뺭펪벨킧ꎬ움볛횸뇪쳥쾵ꎬ횵램 i
붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿 ABSTRACT Since 1990's, with the insurance market reforming and opening, Chinese insurance industry has been development by leaps and bounds, the premium growth rate has been far more than the growth rate of GDP. After joining WTO, foreign companies pour into the Chinese market because of Chinese insurance market's further opening ,which gives a huge competitive pressure to the Chinese insurance companies . Competition for survival between Chinese and foreign insurance companies also focused on the competition for performance, performance, overall strength is the embodiment of insurance companies’ overall strength. Based on fully referencing domestic and foreign insurance business methods and performance evaluation index system,the article select performance evaluation indicators for insurance through property insurance company in Jiangsu Province. According to the actual characteristics of the property insurance company, the technical capacity and market capacity and other non-financial indicators are added into the evaluation index construct the insurance company performance evaluation index system and to establish the business performance evaluation model for the actual situation of property insurance last,the key to the property insurance company performance and development policy are founded for making theoretical and practical reference to the development of insurance industry in Jiangsu Province even all over our country. This article comprehensive and systematic analyzes the problem of the insurance company performance evaluation index, propose method which can more comprehensive reflect the insurance company approach in performance method is more scientific because of overcoming the shortcomings of subjective weight. Through this study,there is some theoretical research and practical significance to Scientific evaluating the performance of the property insurance company and enhancing the core competitiveness of the company. KeywordsꎺProperty insurance companyꎬOperating performanceꎬEvaluation index systemꎬEntropy method ii
쓏뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 ?춼뇭쟥떥 춼 춼 럑폃싊햹쪾춼............................................................................................................................13 춼 춼 뺻샻죳싊햹쪾춼........................................................................................................15 춼 춼 춼 만뚨닺뇈싊햹쪾춼.................................................................................................17 춼 춼 춼 춼 춼 춼 춼 춼 놾퇐뺿업쏻폫쫐뎡럝뛮업쏻쟷쫆춼................................................................................... ... 45 ??뇭 뇭 뇭 뇭 뇭 붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾횵벰좨볆쯣맽돌..................................................................41 뇭 뇭 붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛ퟮ훕업쏻ꎨ내ퟜ럖듓룟떽뗍업쇐ꎩ........................42 뇭 v
돐억쫩 ?놾죋횣훘짹쏷ꎺ쯹돊붻뗄톧캻싛컄ꎬ쫇놾죋퓚떼쪦횸떼쿂ꎬ뛀솢뷸탐퇐뺿릤ퟷ쯹좡뗃뗄돉맻ꆣ뺡컒쯹횪ꎬ돽컄훐틑뺭힢쏷틽폃뗄쓚죝췢ꎬ놾톧캻싛컄뗄퇐뺿돉맻늻냼몬죎뫎쯻죋쿭폐훸ퟷ좨뗄쓚죝ꆣ뛔놾싛컄쯹짦벰뗄퇐뺿릤ퟷퟶ돶릱쿗뗄웤쯻룶죋뫍벯쳥ꎬ뻹틑퓚컄훐틔쏷좷랽쪽뇪쏷ꆣ 놾죋쫚좨쓏뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧뿉틔폐좨놣쇴쯍붻싛컄뗄뢴펡볾ꎬ퓊탭싛컄놻닩퓄뫍뷨퓄,뿉틔붫톧캻싛컄뗄좫늿믲늿럖쓚죝뇠죫폐맘쫽뻝뿢뷸탐볬쯷ꎬ뿉틔닉폃펰펡ꆢ쯵펡믲웤쯻뢴훆쫖뛎놣듦싛컄ꆣ (놣쏜뗄톧캻싛컄퓚뷢쏜뫳쫊폃놾돐억쫩) ????ퟷ헟잩쏻ꎺ 죕 웚ꎺ
쓏뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 뗚튻헂 탷싛 톡쳢놳뺰 뷰죚쫐뎡ꎬퟷ캪맺쏱뺭볃퓋탐뗄탄퓠ꎬ훷튪평틸탐탅듻쫐뎡ꆢ횤좯쫐뎡뫍놣쿕쫐뎡죽룶ퟓ쫐뎡ퟩ돉ꆣ놣쿕닺욷ퟷ캪뷰죚닺욷뗄럖횧ꎬ폫웤쯻뷰죚닺욷뺭볃릦쓜쿠춬ꎻ뛸쟒ꎬ놣쿕쯹뻟폐뺭볃늹뎥ꆢ럀퓖럀쯰뗈쳘쫢횰쓜ꎬ뛔뺭볃퓶뎤폐ퟅ늻뿉쳦듺뗄릱쿗ꆣ퓚맺쏱뺭볃량쯙랢햹뗄놳뺰쿂ꎬ컒맺ퟔ뛾쪮쫀볍냋쪮쓪듺믖뢴맺쓚놣쿕튵컱냬샭틔살ꎬ놣쿕튵폐쇋춻량쏍뷸뗄랢햹ꆣ떫쫇듓뷰죚쫐뎡ퟜ뗄랢햹샺돌뾴ꎬ놣쿕쫐뎡뗄쫐뎡맦쒣폫풴믽샛풶늻벰틸탐탅듻쫐뎡뫍횤좯쫐뎡ꎻ듓튵컱맦쒣살뾴ꎬ컒맺쎿쓪뗄놣럑쫕죫뚼풶풶뗍폚틸탐튵뫍횤좯튵ꆣ뿉볻놣쿕튵퓚뷰죚쫐뎡죔좻뒦폚죵쫆뗘캻ꆣꎬ 본폚놣쿕퓚뺭볃랢햹훐뇭쿖돶뗄뻞듳랢햹잱솦ꎬ맘폚놣쿕뗄퇐뺿돉캪맺쓚뫜뛠톧헟맘힢뗄붹뗣ꎬ떫쒿잰캪횹듳늿럖퇐뺿벯훐퓚쫙쿕쇬폲ꎬ뛔폚닺쿕쇬폲퓲뫜짙짦벰ꎬ떫헢늢늻뇭쏷컒맺닺쿕쫐뎡랢햹쫇붡뾵뗄ꆣ ퟷ캪놣쿕쫐뎡훘튪ퟩ돉늿럖뗄닆닺놣쿕튵ꎬ듓믖뢴놣쿕튵컱쪱뻍뾪쪼뺭펪ꎬ떫웤랢햹늢늻샭쿫ꎬ놾컄톡좡컒맺뺭볃듳쪡붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕쫐뎡ퟷ캪퇐뺿뛔쿳ꎬ웤탐튵뺭펪ힴ뿶퓚좫맺탐튵쇬폲쓚뻟폐듺뇭탔ꎬ뻟쳥뇭쿖퓚ꎺ ꎨ1ꎩ붭쯕쪡뗘뒦뮪뚫뗘쟸ꎬ쫇컒맺뗄뺭볃듳쪡횮튻ꎬ퓚맺쏱뺭볃훐햼폐훘튪뗄뗘캻ꆣ놣쿕튵퓚좫맺햼뇈훘뷏듳ꎬ늢쟒룃쪡뛔맺볒뗄헾닟랴펦뇈뷏쏴죱ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ뷼쓪살붭쯕쪡GDP퓶쯙뷏룟ꎬ떫좫쪡ퟜ놣럑쫕죫벰닺쿕튵컱뗄퓶쯙뷏싽ꎬ퓶뎤싊뗍폚쪡쓚GDP퓶뎤싊ꆣ ꎨ3ꎩ붭쯕쪡닺쿕놣럑쫕죫퓶럹뷏킡ꎬ닺쿕쫐뎡놣쿕짮뛈훰쓪쿂붵ꆣ ꎨ4ꎩ닆닺쿕놣럑쫕죫퓚놣럑ퟜ쫕죫훐햼뇈늻듳ꆣ 놾컄헽쫇퓚헢퇹튻룶탐튵놳뺰쿂ꎬ톡좡붭쯕쪡쓚10볒닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪튵벨ꎬ퇐뺿붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧벰웤펰쿬틲쯘ꎬ뿆톧움볛붭쯕쪡뺭볃퓶뎤쪱웚놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧ꎬ늢뛔웤뺭펪랢햹쳡돶폐헫뛔탔뗄붨틩ꆣ? 퇐뺿틢틥 1
붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿 폫웤쯼탐튵쿠뇈ꎬ놣쿕튵쫇뇈뷏쳘쫢뗄탐튵ꆣ뗚튻ꎬ놣쿕ퟷ캪튻훖뗤탍뗄컞탎닺욷ꎬ쫇벯뫏뻟폐춬샠럧쿕뗄훚뛠떥캻뫍룶죋ꎬ틔뫏샭볆쯣럧쿕럖떣뷰뗄탎쪽ꎬ쿲짙쫽틲룃럧쿕쫂맊랢짺뛸쫜떽뺭볃쯰쪧뗄돉풱쳡릩놣쿕뺭볃놣헏뗄튻훖탐캪ꆣ쫇뛔폚돐떣뫏춬풼뚨뗄캴살뿉쓜랢짺뗄쫂맊틲웤랢짺쯹퓬돉뗄닆닺쯰쪧돐떣엢뎥놣쿕뷰퓰죎뗄돐억ꎻ뗚뛾ꎬ놣쿕뫏춬훐듳솿뗄튵쫵폯ꎬ뛔폚ퟮ캪쿻럑헟뗄춶놣죋살쮵ꎬ쎻폐쿠맘뷰죚폫램싉횪쪶ꎬ튻냣쫇쓑틔샭뷢뗄ꆣ춶놣죋폫놣쿕릫쮾탅쾢늻뛔돆컊쳢쿔훸ꆣ폫듋쿠뇈ꎬ춶놣헟룼맘탄뗄쫇놣쿕릫쮾뗄뺭펪튵벨폫샭엢탅폾쫇럱솼뫃ꎬퟔ좻믡톡퓱럾컱훊솿폫짧믡탎쿳폅틬뗄놣쿕릫쮾ꆣ틲듋ꎬ뿆톧좫쏦뗘움볛놣쿕릫쮾뗄뺭펪벨킧ꎬ뛔춶놣죋톡퓱뺭펪튵벨뷏뫃뗄놣쿕릫쮾ꎬퟶ돶쫊뫏ퟔ짭뗄춶놣뻶닟ꎬ뷸튻늽놣헏웤샻틦ꎬ뻟폐훘튪틢틥ꆣ 듓놣쿕릫쮾뗄뷇뛈ꎬ뺭펪벨킧쫇놣쿕릫쮾ퟔ짭퓋펪쿖ힴ뗄뿍맛쳥쿖ꆣ뺭펪벨킧움볛쳥쾵쫇놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪쟩뿶뗄ꆰ럧쿲뇪ꆱꎬ쯼쓜좫쏦랴펳놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪쿖ힴꎬ횸돶놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪랢햹훐듦퓚뗄훷튪컊쳢ꎬ캪릫쮾훆뚨햽싔뻶닟ꎬ쳡룟뺭펪튵벨쳡릩틀뻝ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ웳튵뷸탐뺭펪벨킧움볛ꎬ쫇쿖듺웳튵훆뛈뗄뿍맛튪쟳ꎬ룼쫇놣쿕릫쮾쓜럱믱엺뷸죫놾쫐뎡죚뗄뇘튪틀뻝ꆣ컒맺뛔놣쿕릫쮾폈웤쫇닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛뗄퇐뺿웰늽뷏췭ꎬ퇐뺿믹뒡쿠뛔놡죵ꎬ떫붨솢췪짆뗄닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛쳥쾵쫇췆뷸컒맺닆닺놣쿕튵룄룯뗄쫗튪죎컱ꎬ쫇컒맺놣쿕릫쮾뗖폹췢놣쿕릫쮾돥믷ꎬ퓚뺺헹죕틦벤쇒뗄맺볊놣쿕쫐뎡솢ퟣ뗄뇘튪잰쳡ꆣ틲듋ꎬ퇐뺿닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛랽램ꎬ뿆톧좫쏦뗘움볛닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뗄뺭펪벨킧ꎬ늢뛔웤뎤웚뿉돖탸랢햹랢햹쳡돶붨짨탔틢볻ꎬ뻟폐뫜듳뗄샭싛폫쪵볹틢틥ꆣ ퟛ짏쯹쫶ꎬ뷡뫏놣쿕탐튵뗄쳘뗣벰붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾랢햹쿖ힴꎬ닉폃쫊뫏뗄닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛랽램ꎬ뿆톧릹붨쫊뫏붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뗄뺭펪벨킧움볛쳥쾵ꎬ뛔랢쿖움볛붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪맜샭훐돶쿖뗄컊쳢ꎬ룼뫃뗘룄짆뺭펪튵벨ꎬ쳡짽뫋탄뺺헹솦웰ퟅ훁맘훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ춬퇹ꎬ뛔컒맺웤쯻쪡럝춬탐튵뗄벨킧움볛튲뻟폐튻뚨뗄뷨본틢틥ꆣ 싛컄뗄퇐뺿쮼슷ꆢ쓚죝폫랽램 퇐뺿뿲볜 룹뻝퇐뺿쓚죝ꎬ놾컄릲럖쇹헂ꎬ헻쳥퇐뺿뷡릹볻춼ㄮ?ꆣ룷헂쓚죝듳훂죧쿂ꎺ?뗚튻헂ꎬ탷싛쫇좫컄뗄웰뗣ꎬ닻쫶쇋톡쳢놳뺰벰퇐뺿틢틥ꎬ늢쳡돶쇋놾컄뗄퇐뺿쮼슷ꆢ퇐뺿쓚죝뫍퇐뺿랽램틔벰뒴탂뗣ꆣ? 2
쓏뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 뗚뛾헂ꎬ샭싛벰컄쿗ퟛ쫶ꎬ닻쫶놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛믹놾샭싛벰맺쓚췢쿠맘퇐뺿쿖ힴꎬ웤훐훘뗣첽쳖놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛뗄믹놾몬틥ꆢ쳘뗣ꆢ틢틥벰맺쓚췢쿖폐퇐뺿뗄늻ퟣꆣ캪횮뫳움볛횸뇪쳥쾵뗄붨솢쳡릩쇋샭싛믹뒡ꆣ?뗚죽헂ꎬ붨솢놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛횸뇪쳥쾵ꎬ쫗쿈뛔붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕튵랢햹쿖ힴ뷸탐쇋룅쫶ꎬ룹뻝쿠맘쫽뻝ꎬ듓닆컱뫍럇닆컱솽랽쏦횸뇪ꎬ뛔붭쯕쪡훷튪닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪튵벨뷸탐쇋뷏캪좫쏦뗄럖컶ꎬ좷뚨펰쿬웤뺭펪벨킧뗄맘볼틲쯘ꎬ뷸튻늽좷솢쇋붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛횸뇪ꎬ듓뛸붨솢움볛횸뇪쳥쾵ꆣ??뗚쯄헂ꎬ좷솢놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛볆럖쒣탍ꎬ냼삨횸뇪좨훘벰볆럖랽램ꆣ캪붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛횸뇪쳥쾵뗄믽럖쳡릩쇋랽램횸떼ꆣ?뗚컥헂ꎬ뷸탐쪵횤퇐뺿ꎬ뻟쳥톡좡붭쯕쪡훷튪볒닆닺놣쿕릫쮾ퟷ캪퇹놾ꎬ퇩횤놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛랽램뗄폐킧탔ꆣ?뗚쇹헂ꎬퟜ뷡퇐뺿돉맻ꎬ뗃돶퇐뺿뷡싛ꎬ늢닻쫶퇐뺿훐듦퓚뗄컊쳢틔벰뷸튻늽퇐뺿뗄랽쿲ꆣ? 좷뚨뿎쳢퇐뺿쓚죝 샭싛퇐뺿 쪵뗘뗷퇐 쇏헻샭쫕벯 좷솢붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕뺭펪벨킧움 볛랽램 좷솢움볛횸뇪쳥쾵 붨솢움볛볆럖쒣탍 쪵 횤 퇐 뺿 퇐뺿ퟜ뷡 ꎬ뷡싛벰햹췻 춼
붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿 퇐뺿쓚죝폫랽램 놾컄퓚뛔맺쓚췢퇐뺿돉맻ퟛ쫶뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ듓뺭펪벨킧움볛뗄믹놾몬틥뫍쳘뗣돶랢ꎬ늢뷡뫏붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뗄쪵볹ꎬ붨솢쇋닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛횸뇪쳥쾵ꎬ늢퓋폃잡떱뗄쫽톧릤뻟ꎬ붨솢쇋움볛볆럖쒣탍ꆣ퇐뺿쓚죝뻟쳥죧쿂ꎺ?ꎨ1ꎩퟛ쫶맺쓚췢뛔웳튵뺭펪벨킧움볛벰놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛뗄퇐뺿돉맻ꎬ럖컶퇐뺿놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛랽램뗄틀뻝ꆣ?ꎨ2ꎩ닻쫶놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛뗄믹놾샭싛ꎬ늢첽쳖웤뛔붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뗄쿖쪵틢틥ꆣ?ꎨ3ꎩ춨맽뛔붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧쿖ힴ뗄럖컶ꎬ뻟쳥릹붨붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛횸뇪쳥쾵ꆣ?ꎨ4ꎩ붨솢쫊뫏붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾쪵볊쟩뿶뗄뺭펪벨킧움볛볆럖쒣탍ꆣ?ꎨ5ꎩ춨맽뛔붭쯕쪡뛠볒닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪튵벨뗄쪵횤퇐뺿ꎬ싛횤짏쫶랽램뗄뿆톧탔폫폐킧탔ꆣ ꎨ6ꎩ룹뻝움볛뷡맻ꎬ럖컶붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕랢햹듦퓚뗄컊쳢ꎬ늢쳡돶튻킩쳡룟쪡쓚닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뗄붨짨탔틢볻ꆣ??퓚퇐뺿랽램짏ꎬ닉폃뚨솿폫뚨탔쿠뷡뫏뗄럖컶랽램ꎺ?ꎨ?ꎩ퓋폃뇈뷏럖컶램ꎬ붫샭싛폫쪵볊쿠뷡뫏ꎬ뛔닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛랽램뷸탐럖컶ꆢퟜ뷡ꆢ맩쓉ꎬ듓뛸붨솢움볛횸뇪쳥쾵ꆣ?ꎨ?ꎩ틔횵램ퟷ캪벨킧움볛볆럖쒣탍뗄믹뒡ꆣ?ꎨ?ꎩ틔붭쯕쪡10볒훷튪닆닺놣쿕릫쮾캪쪵횤퇐뺿퇹놾ꎬ쯹폐뗄춳볆럖컶릤ퟷ뚼퓚䕘䍅?벰卐卓욽첨짏췪돉ꆣ? 퇐뺿뗄뒴탂뗣 놾컄뗄뒴탂뗣훷튪퓚폚ꎺ?ꎨ1ꎩ룹뻝놣쿕튵뗄쪵볊쳘뗣ꎬ릹붨쇋붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛횸뇪쳥쾵ꎬ퓚움볛횸뇪쳥쾵훐짨볆쫐뎡쓜솦ꆢ짺닺폫벼쫵쓜솦솽쿮럇닆컱횸뇪ꎬ늢뛔횸뇪뷸탐쇋솿뮯뒦샭ꎬ붫웤ퟷ캪훘튪쓚죝쓉죫움볛쳥쾵ꆣ?ꎨ2ꎩ퓚뛔뒫춳움볛볆럖랽램짮죫퇐뺿뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ룹뻝닆닺놣쿕릫쮾벨킧움볛뗄쳘뗣ꎬ닉폃횵램ꎬ뿍럾쇋훷맛뢳좨뗄좱쿝ꎬ붨솢쇋쫊뫏붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧ퟛ뫏움볛볆럖쒣탍ꆣ?ꎨ3ꎩ뷨훺놾컄붨솢뗄놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛랽램ꎬ뛔붭쯕쪡훷튪닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뷸탐쇋쪵횤업쏻뫍튵벨럖컶ꆣ???? 4
쓏뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 ?뗚뛾헂 놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛믹놾룅쓮폫컄쿗ퟛ쫶 캪쇋쒱쟳퓚뺺헹훐좡뗃뺺헹폅쫆ꎬ폐뇘튪퓚놣쿕릫쮾췆탐웳튵뺭펪벨킧움볛ꎬ붫웳튵뗄쫓뷇틽떼떽뿉돖탸랢햹짏살ꆣ캪듋ꎬ뇘탫붨솢뿆톧뗄뺭펪벨킧움볛샭싛믹뒡ꎬ닅쓜캪톡퓱움볛횸뇪뫍좷솢움볛볆럖랽램쳡릩틀뻝ꆣ놾헂닻쫶쇋웳튵뺭펪벨킧움볛뗄뗄믹놾룅쓮폫쿠맘샭싛틔벰맺쓚췢쿠맘퇐뺿쿖ힴꎬ캪뷸튻늽뗄퇐뺿쳡릩샭싛뫍랽램횸떼ꆣ? 웳튵뺭펪벨킧움볛쿠맘룅쓮 웳튵뺭펪벨킧 벨킧(Performance)ꎬ뛔폚쯼뗄뚨틥ꎬ쒿잰뮹쎻폐튻룶뚨싛ꆣ뾲놴뛻ꎨCampbellꎩ쳡돶ꎬꆰ벨킧쫇튻훖탐캪ꎬ펦떱폫뷡맻쟸럖뾪살ꆣꆱꎻ쒪럆ꎨMurphyꎩ죏캪벨킧쫇ꆰ폫ퟩ횯쒿뇪쿠맘뗄탐캪ꆱꎻ늮쓉뚡ꎨBernadinꎩ죏캪ꎬꆰ평폚벨킧움볛뗄릤ퟷ뷡맻폫웳튵햽싔쒿뇪ꆢ뿍뮧싺틢돌뛈횮볤뗄맘쾵ퟮ캪뷴쏜ꎬ쯹틔벨킧ꎬ뿉틔뚨틥캪릤ퟷ뗄뷡맻ꆱꆣ맘폚벨킧뗄맛뗣ꎬ룅삨웰살훷튪럖캪쿂쏦솽훖ꎺ튻훖쫇죏캪벨킧쫇죋쏇퓚ퟩ횯훐뗄릤ퟷ믱뗃뗄킧맻믲헟돉벨뗄뿍맛랴펳嬱?ꎻ쇭튻훖쫇죏캪웳튵벨킧펦룃듓솽랽쏦살뚨틥ꎬ튻쫇횸ퟩ횯쓚쳘뚨뗄릤ퟷ횰쓜믲믮뚯퓚튻뚨뗄쪱볤쓚쯹닺짺뗄돉맻ꎬ쫇틔뷡맻캪떼쿲뗄벨킧ꎬ뛾쫇횸폫ퟩ횯쒿뇪쿠맘뗄ꆢ뿉틔내헕룶쳥릱쿗돌뛈살뷸탐뛈솿뗄탐캪믲믮뚯ꎬ헢쫇틔탐캪캪떼쿲뗄벨킧嬲?ꆣ컒맺닆헾늿춳볆움볛쮾죏캪ꎬ웳튵뺭펪벨킧쫇횸웳튵퓚튻뚨뗄뺭펪쪱볤쓚쯹믱뗃뗄뺭펪킧틦뫍뺭펪헟튵벨뗄움볛랴펳ꎬ웤훐웳튵뺭펪킧틦훷튪쳥쿖퓚펯샻쓜솦ꆢ놾퓋펪쓜솦ꆢ뎥뢶쓜솦뫍뿉돖탸랢햹쓜솦벸룶랽쏦ꎬ뛸뺭펪헟튵벨훷튪쳥쿖퓚뺭펪헟퓚뛔웳튵뺭펪맜샭뗄맽돌훐뛔웳튵뗄퓋펪폫랢햹쯹ퟶ뗄릤ퟷ훐믱뗃뗄돉벨폫ퟷ돶뗄릱쿗嬳?ꆣ뫜쏷쿔ꎬ헢튻뚨틥뫜듳돌뛈짏쯵킡쇋웳튵뺭펪벨킧뗄룅쓮랶돫ꎬ쯼뫶쫓쇋뺭볃믮뚯훐ퟮ캪훘튪뗄킧싊컊쳢ꆣ놾컄ퟛ뫏쇋짏쫶뛔웳튵뺭펪벨킧뗄늻춬샭뷢ꎬ뛔웳튵벨킧ퟶ돶쇋헢퇹뗄룅삨ꎺ쯹캽벨킧ꎬ뻍쫇횸폫웳튵쒿뇪쿠맘뗄ꎬ퓚튻뚨쪱웚랢짺뗄뺭맽움볛뗄탐캪ꆢ맽돌벰웤뷡맻ꆣ 웳튵뺭펪벨킧움볛 헅죯죏캪ꎬꆰ웳튵뺭펪벨킧움볛웤쪵뻍쫇캪쪵쿖웳튵짺닺뺭펪쒿뇪ꎬ춨맽뿆톧뗄움볛랽램ꎬ톡좡쳘뚨뗄횸뇪ꎬ맦뚨뫏쫊뗄뇪ힼꎬ듓뛸뛔웳튵뗄짺닺뺭펪믮뚯훐뗄룷룶뮷뷚틔벰쯹믱뗃뗄쫕틦ퟶ돶뗄뿍맛에뛏ꎬ쯼뗄훘뗣쫇뫢솿쯹뢶돶폫믘놨ꎬ헹좡틔ퟮ킡돌뛈뗄돉놾뢶돶살좡뗃ퟮ듳돌뛈뗄킧틦믘놨ꆣꆱꎻ쏏붨쏱죏캪ꎬꆰ벨킧움볛쫇뛔웳튵맜샭ꆢ쪹폃ꆢ럖엤쯹햼폐뗄뺭볃풴뗄킧맻쯹뷸탐뗄움볛럖컶ꎬ튲뻍쫇뛔웳튵뺭펪킧맻뫍뺭펪헟릤ퟷ튵벨뗄뿍맛움에ꎬ벨킧움볛늻뷶뿉틔5
붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿 쪹웳튵뺭펪헟좷뚨웳튵캴살뗄뎤웚랢햹햽싔ꎬ움에쒿뇪릤ퟷ뗄쪵쪩킧맻ꎬ늢쟒웳튵뺭펪헟틔벰룷뷧샻틦쿠맘헟튲뿉틔틔웳튵뗄벨킧움볛뷡맻캪틀뻝ꎬ훆뚨폐킧뗄뺭펪뻶닟ꎬ듓뛸횸떼웳튵룼뫃뗘룄짆뺭펪맜샭ꎬ뷸튻늽듙뷸웳튵쳡룟ퟔ짭뗄뺭볃킧틦ꆣꆱ嬴?ꎻ컄탂죽ꆢ헅쳎죏캪ꆰ웳튵뺭펪벨킧움볛쫇틔닆컱맜샭뫍믡볆톧캪믹뒡ꎬ퓋폃쿖듺춳볆럖컶벼쫵폫볆솿뺭볃톧풭샭붨솢웰살뗄럖컶웳튵뺭펪맽돌ꎬ뿍맛랴펳웳튵뺭펪쪵볊쟩뿶ꎬ듓뛸뷸튻늽풤닢웳튵캴살랢햹잰뺰폫랽쿲뗄튻쏅뿆톧ꎬ쫇뿆톧움볛샭싛랽램퓚뺭볃쇬폲뗄뻟쳥퓋폃ꆣꆱ嬵?ꆣ?맩쓉짏쫶맛뗣ꎬ뿉틔뛔웳튵뺭펪벨킧움볛ퟶ돶헢퇹뗄룅삨ꎺퟩ횯틀헕풤쿈좷뚨뗄뇪ힼ뫍튻뚨뗄움볛돌탲ꎬ퓋폃뿆톧뗄움볛랽램ꆢ내헕움볛뗄쓚죝뫍뇪ힼ뛔움볛뛔쿳뗄릤ퟷ쓜솦ꆢ릤ퟷ튵벨뷸탐뚨웚뫍늻뚨웚뗄뾼뫋뫍움볛ꆣ내움볛훷쳥뮮럖ꎬ뿉틔럖캪웳튵뗄쓚늿움볛폫웳튵뗄췢늿움볛ꎻ틔움볛횸뇪뗄뷇뛈뮮럖ꎬ뿉틔럖캪틔닆컱횸뇪캪믹뒡뗄움볛폫틔럇닆컱횸뇪캪믹뒡뗄움볛ꎻ내헕움볛뗄쓚죝뮮럖ꎬ웳튵뺭펪벨킧움볛럖캪헻쳥움볛폫늿럖움볛뗈ꆣ놾컄뗄퇐뺿붫닆컱움볛폫럇닆컱랽쏦움볛뷡뫏웰살ꎬ듓뛸뛔붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뗄뺭펪벨킧뷸탐ퟛ뫏움볛ꎬ웤움볛뷡맻쫊폃폚놣쿕릫쮾룄짆ퟔ짭뺭펪맜샭ꎬ춬퇹튲쫊폃폚췢늿샻틦쿠맘헟움볛톡퓱놣쿕릫쮾ꆣ? 컄쿗ퟛ쫶 웳튵뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿쿖ힴ 맺췢퇐뺿쿖ힴ ꎨ?ꎩ틔닆컱럖컶캪믹뒡뗄뺭펪튵벨움볛?19쫀볍훐웚ꎬ쯦ퟅ쿖듺릫쮾훆뛈뗄늻뛏돉쫬ꎬ쳘뇰쫇퓚막럝훆릫쮾돶쿖횮뫳ꎬ쫐뎡뺺헹죕쟷벤쇒ꆣ릫쮾뺭펪좨폫쯹폐좨뗄럖샫ꎬ쪹뗃웳튵쯹폐헟뫍뺭펪헟뛔뺭펪벨킧룼볓훘쫓ꆣ떫쫇헢튻쪱웚뗄움볛훷튪쳥쿖퓚돉놾맜샭랽쏦ꎬ움볛횸뇪뷶뷶쫇춳볆탔뗄ꎬ죧닺솿ꆢ닺횵뗈횸뇪ꎬ폫닆컱춳볆뻹컞뇘좻솪쾵?嬶?ꆣ냩쯦놾훷틥짌욷뺭볃뗄닺짺ꎬ떥튻뗄춳볆탔뗄돉놾맜샭벨킧움볛틑뺭풽살풽늻쓜싺ퟣ웳튵뺭펪맜샭뗄탨쟳ꎬ쏀맺믡볆맾죰퓚1911쓪쳡돶쇋뇪ힼ돉놾훆뛈ꎬ헢튻훆뛈훷튪틔뇪ힼ돉놾뗄횴탐쟩뿶폫닮틬럖컶뷡맻캪움볛벨킧뗄훷튪횸뇪ꆣ?嬷?ꆣ?떽쇋20쫀볍ꎬ놾훷틥쫐뎡뺭볃뷸죫쇋컈늽랢햹쪱웚ꎬ짧믡뮯듳짺닺맦쒣풽살풽듳ꆣ쯦ퟅ놾쫐뎡뗄랢햹뫍쯹폐좨폫뺭펪좨뗄뷸튻늽럖샫ꎬ웳튵뗄뺭펪ힴ뿶뫍닆컱ힴ뿶뷸튻늽놻샻틦쿠맘헟쯹맘힢ꎬ닆컱탔벨킧움볛튲펦퓋뛸짺?嬸?ꆣ헢튻쪱웚ꎬ웳튵뺭펪벨킧움볛뗄횸뇪돽쇋돉놾움볛횸뇪췢ꎬ룼볓죫쇋쇷뚯뇈싊ꎬ닺믘놨싊뗈쿠맘닆컱횸뇪ꎬ헢킩횸뇪릲춬ퟩ돉쇋틔닆컱캪믹뒡뗄벨킧움볛횸뇪쳥쾵ꎬ헦헽틢틥짏뗄웳튵뺭펪벨킧움볛듓듋닺짺ꆣ??1903쓪ꎬ쏀맺뛅냮릫쮾뗄늼샊ꎨBrownꎩꎬ춨맽뛔튻킩훷튪닆컱뇈싊볤듦퓚뗄맘쾵뗄럖컶ꎬ살뛔웳튵닆컱ힴ뿶뷸탐ퟛ뫏움볛ꆣ뻟쳥살쮵ꎬ쯼쫇튻훖폃살움볛릫쮾펮샻쓜솦뫍막뚫좨틦믘놨쮮욽ꎬ듓닆컱뷇뛈움볛웳튵벨킧뗄튻훖뺭뗤랽램ꆣ쯼뗄훷튪쮼슷쫇붫웳튵뗄뺻닺쫕틦싊헢튻 6
쓏뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 쿮닆컱횸뇪훰닣럖뷢ꎬ듓뛸뮯캪뛠쿮쿠맘닆컱뇈싊뗄돋믽ꎬ캪뷸튻늽럖컶움볛웳튵뗄뺭펪튵벨쳡릩냯훺ꆣ평폚헢훖럖컶랽램ퟮ퓧평쏀맺뛅냮릫쮾쪹폃ꎬ맊쏻뛅냮럖컶램ꆣ쯼뗄ퟮ훷튪쳘뗣뻍쫇폐킧뗘붫죴룉폃폚뷸탐웳튵뺭펪튵벨틔벰닆컱ힴ뿶움볛뗄뇈싊내헕웤쓚퓚솪쾵쿠뷡뫏ꎬ틔붨솢튻룶좫쏦쾵춳뗄횸뇪쳥쾵ꎬ틔좨틦쫕틦싊ퟛ뫏뗘ퟶ돶ퟮ훕랴펳ꆣ퓋폃뛅냮럖컶램ꎬ쇮럖컶룼뻟폐닣듎탔폫쳵샭탔ꎬ룸럖컶죋풱움볛웳튵뗄닆컱ힴ뿶듸살쇋벫듳뗄뇣샻ꆣ嬹???1928쓪ꎬ쏀맺톧헟퇇샺즽듳?컖뛻ꎨꎩ퓚쯻돶냦뗄ꆶ탅폃쟧폪뇭ꆷ뫍ꆶ닆컱놨뇭뇈싊럖컶ꆷ훐쳡돶쇋탅폃쓜솦횸쫽헢튻룅쓮ꎬ쯻퓚닆컱뇈싊훐톡퓱쇋7룶벴만뚨닺뇈싊ꆢ쇷뚯뇈싊ꆢ듦믵훜싊ꆢ펦쫕헋뿮훜싊ꆢ만뚨닺훜싊ꆢퟔ평뷰훜싊ꆢ닺좨뇈싊횸뇪ꎬ맦뚨룷횸뇪뗄뇈훘ꎬ붫룷룶횸뇪뗄쪵볊뇈싊폫쪵쿖좷뚨뗄뇪ힼ뇈싊ꎨ틔탐튵욽뻹쫽캪믹뒡ꎩ쿠뇈ꎬ뷸튻늽볆쯣뗃돶튻룶쿠뛔뇈싊ꎬ퓙폃쿠뛔뇈싊돋틔룷횸뇪뗄뇈훘ꎬ쯹뗃쫽횵벴캪움볛ퟜ럖ꆣ룃랽램쳡돶쇋ퟛ뫏뇈싊움볛쳥쾵ꎬ냑죴룉룶닆컱뇈싊폃쿟탔맘쾵뷡뫏웰살ꎬ틔듋살움볛웳튵뗄닆컱ힴ뿶ꆣ嬱???뷸죫20쫀볍20쓪듺ꎬ춶놨돪싊퓚웳튵뺭펪벨킧움볛뗄릤ퟷ훐뗃떽쇋맣랺펦폃ꎬ싳뛻쓡쮹ꎨMelnnessꎩꎨ1971ꎩ퇐뺿쇋쏀맺30볒뿧맺릫쮾뗄뺭펪벨킧움볛쳥쾵ꎬ횸돶ퟮ뎣폃튵벨움볛횸뇪캪춶놨돪싊ꎬ쯼냼삨뺻닺믘놨싊ꎬ웤듎캪뇈뷏뫍샺쪷뇈뷏嬱??ꆣ?20쫀볍80쓪듺ꎬ쏀맺맜샭믡볆캯풱믡듓닆컱킧틦뗄뷇뛈돶랢ꎬ랢늼쇋ꆶ볆솿웳튵튵벨쮵쏷쫩ꆷꎬ쳡돶쇋냋쿮볆솿웳튵뺭볃킧틦뗄횸뇪ꎬ웤훐냼삨뗷헻춨믵엲헍뫳뗄튵벨ꆢ뺭볃쫕틦ꆢ쫐뎡볛횵ꆢ춶놨돪싊ꆢ쪣폠쫕틦ꆢ쿖뷰쇷솿ꆢ쎿막펯폠ꆢ뺻쫕틦뗈??ㄲ?ꆣ?쯦ퟅ웳튵뗄늻뛏뇤룯폫랢햹ꎬ웳튵뺭펪벨킧뗄움볛샭싛뫍쓚죝튲퓚늻뛏뇤뮯ꎬ훰늽탎돉좫쏦뗄뚯첬뗄웳튵벨킧움볛쳥쾵ꎬ춬쪱튲탎돉쇋튻쾵쇐뗄믹폚웳튵뺭펪벨킧움볛뗄맜샭쮼쿫ꆣ퓚20쫀볍80쓪듺횮잰ꎬ웳튵뺭펪벨킧움볛뗄랶캧믹놾췪좫쿞폚닆컱움볛嬱??ꆣ? 맺쓚퇐뺿쿖ힴ 쿠뇈폚컷랽ꎬ컒맺맘폚웳튵뺭펪벨킧움볛랽쏦뗄퇐뺿듳뛠쪼폚2000쓪틔뫳ꆣ퓚헾웳늻럖뗄볆뮮뺭볃쪱듺ꎬ웳튵쎻폐ퟔ훷뺭펪좨ꎬ맺볒퓚뛔웳튵뷸탐움볛쪱룼뛠뗘뻖쿞폚쪵컯뫍닺돶랽쏦뗄움볛ꎬ뛸뫶쫓쇋뛔튵벨뫍돉놾뗄뾼뫋ꆣ냩쯦ퟅ룄룯뾪럅ꎬ맺볒뛔맺폐웳튵럅좨죃샻ꎬ웳튵튲훰붥삩듳쇋뺭펪ퟔ훷좨ꎬ웳튵뺭펪벨킧움볛틲듋풽살풽쫜떽맘힢ꎬ샭싛뷧튲뾪쪼뛔컷랽뗄움볛샭싛뷸탐퇐뺿ꎬ늢춨맽퓚컒맺뗄쪵횤볬퇩ꎬ퇐뺿돶튻킩쫊뫏컒맺쪵볊쟩뿶뗄웳튵뺭펪벨킧움볛랽램ꎬ폈웤퓚20쫀볍90쓪듺횮뫳ꎬ컒맺뗄웳튵뺭펪벨킧퇐뺿뗃떽쇋잰쯹캴폐뗄랢햹ꆣ?맘폚ퟛ뫏벨킧움볛랽램뗄퇐뺿ꎬ맺쓚톧헟튲폐튻킩뇈뷏폐펰쿬뗄돉맻ꆣ뛅쪤샻ꎨ2001ꎩ쳡돶ꎬ뒫춳뗄벨킧움볛랽램닠훘뫢솿웳튵맽좥랢짺뗄닆컱랽쏦뺭펪튵벨ꎬ뿉틔틔듋캪믹뒡ꎬ뛔놻움볛뗄뺭펪돉맻뷸탐튻킩햽쫵탔랴삡ꎬ듓뛸볠뚽폫횸떼웳튵뚨웚뗄뺭펪맜샭ꎬ캪뷸튻늽뗄ퟛ뫏7
붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿 뺭펪벨킧움볛뗬뚨쇋믹뒡嬱??ꆣ헅죯ꎨ2002ꎩ퇐뺿쇋햽싔뺭펪뛔웳튵벨킧움볛쳥쾵뗄훘튪탔틔벰믹폚햽싔닣쏦뗄웳튵뺭펪벨킧움볛쳥쾵뗄붨솢폫움볛횸뇪뗄톡좡ꎬ룼뛔웳튵럇닆컱랽쏦뗄틲쯘뷸탐쇋훘뗣퇐뺿?嬱?ꆣ훐맺죋쏱듳톧뗄췵뮯돉뷌쫚ꎨ2004ꎩ럖뇰듓웳튵햽싔쒿뇪ꆢퟩ횯볜릹ꆢ풤쯣뿘훆틔벰벤샸훆뛈헢쯄룶뷇뛈퇩횤붫욽뫢볆럖뾨ퟶ캪움볛쒣쪽뗄폐킧탔嬱??ꆣ십ꎨ2004ꎩ뷏캪쾵춳뗄퇐뺿쇋웳튵뎤웚햽싔탔벨킧움볛샭싛뿲볜벰쿠펦움볛횸뇪쳥쾵뗄붨솢????ꆣ?퓚뛔EVA움볛랽램뗄퇐뺿훐ꎬ폐틔쿂뇈뷏폐펰쿬솦뗄돉맻ꎺ쇵솦뗈ꎨ1999ꎩ뛔EVA틔벰REVA랽램뗄뇈뷏럖컶??ㄶ?ꎬ마뗈ꎨ2000ꎩ믹폚EVA랽램뛔웳튵닆컱맜샭쳥쾵뷸탐뗄럖컶?ㄷ?ꎬ헅뒿ꎨ2003ꎩ뛔EVAퟛ뫏움볛뗄샭싛벰쿠맘쪵횤퇐뺿?ㄸ?ꎬ훐맺죋쏱듳톧뗄믆컀캰훷돖뗄믹폚EVA뗄탭볌벯췅뺭펪벨킧뾼뫋쒣쪽?ㄹ?ꆣ? 맺쓚췢놣쿕튵뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿쿖ힴ 맺췢톧헟뛔폚놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뗄움볛훷튪냼삨틔쿂벸룶랽쏦?KaplanꆢUrwitz?1979???㈰?틔벰Ederington?1985???㈱?춨맽뛔햮좯움벶틲쯘뗄퇐뺿ꎬ쳡돶쇋뛔놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뷸탐럖벶움볛뗄랽램ꆣEderington뫍Yawitz?1987???㈲?뛔뺭펪벨킧움볛뗄퓧웚퇐뺿돉맻ퟶ돶쇋ퟜ뷡ꎬ랢쿖틑폐뗄퇐뺿컄쿗훐퓚뺭펪벨킧움볛훐펦폃뷏캪맣랺뗄움볛횸뇪쫇닺쫕틦싊ꆢ막놾ꆢ샻쾢놣헏싊ꆢ쇷뚯뇈싊ꆢ듎벶햮좯뗘캻뫍탐튵횸쫽ꆣAvi Fiegenbaum뫍Howard Thomas?1990??㈳?헫뛔쏀맺놣쿕릫쮾ퟩ횯뷡릹뛔웤햽싔벨킧뗄펰쿬뷸탐쇋럖컶ꎬ횸쏷ퟩ횯훆뚨햽싔쒿뇪뗄쮮욽ꆢퟶ돶햽싔뻶닟뗄쓜솦틔벰뛔햽싔뗄쪱볤뿘훆쫇뻶뚨웳튵햽싔벨킧뗄맘볼탔틲쯘ꎬ늢춨맽뷸튻늽뗄럖컶횸돶ퟩ횯햽싔쫇펰쿬놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뗄틲쯘훐늻뿉믲좱훘튪쓚죝ꆣBain?1968??㈴?쳡돶ꎬ맦쒣뷏듳뗄놣쿕릫쮾뻟놸쫐뎡슢뛏뗄쪵솦ꎬ틲듋쓜릻춨맽룼룟뗄닺욷뚨볛살좡뇈춬탐튵뺺헹헟룼뛠뗄샻죳ꎻ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬScherer?1980??嬲??쳡돶ꎬ놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪맦쒣풽듳ꎬ뻍풽폐쓜솦붵뗍놣쿕닺욷뗄돉놾볛룱ꎬ듓뛸쳡룟닺욷뗄샻죳싊ꎬ좡뗃룼폐샻뗄뺺헹폅쫆ꆣ튻냣살붲ꎬ놣쿕릫쮾뗄맦쒣폫웤뺭펪벨킧뻟폐튻뚨뗄헽쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ?맺쓚뛔폚놣쿕탐튵뺭펪벨킧뗄퇐뺿쒿잰뮹뇈뷏폐쿞ꎬ훷튪냼삨ꎺ돂욼?1999??㈶?틔닺뢺햮싊ꆢ럖냼싊ꆢ샻죳싊ꆢ럑폃싊ꆢ엢뢶싊뗈닆컱횸뇪캪믹뒡붨솢움볛횸뇪뇭쳥쾵ꎬ럖컶닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뗄뺭펪ힴ뿶ꎻ솺웥뫍췵펰?2006???㈷?틔맺쓚9볒놣쿕릫쮾캪퇐뺿뛔쿳ꎬ퓋폃쫽뻝냼싧쒣탍ꎬ뛔룷릫쮾뗄뺭펪벨킧ퟛ뫏움볛ꎬ내헕뺭펪킧싊뛔헢킩릫쮾뷸탐쇋업탲ꎬ캪릫쮾뗄랢햹쳡돶붨짨탔틢볻ꎻ샮쇖ퟓ뫍슳?2003??㈸?틔닆컱횸뇪캪믹뒡ꎬ붨솢쇋튻쳗뇈뷏좫쏦뗄움볛쳥쾵ꎬ웤훐닎뾼놣쿕뗄탐튵쳘뗣ꎬ폃폫놣쿕쿠맘뗄뇤솿쳦뮻뗴닆컱뇈싊훐뗄튻킩뇤솿ꎬ쯹붨솢뗄움볛횸뇪쳥쾵볈퓚쫽뻝짏럻뫏춳볆튪쟳ꎬ폖쓜뷏뫃뗘쳥쿖놣쿕릫쮾뗄뺭펪쳘뗣ꎬ쳡룟쇋움볛뷡맻뗄뿆톧탔폫뿉뾿탔ꆣ늢틔웤붨솢뗄움볛횸뇪쳥쾵캪믹뒡ꎬ뛔쪮뛠볒훐췢닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뷸탐ퟛ뫏움볛ꎬ랢쿖쇋늻춬뗄닺쿕릫쮾퓚펯샻쓜솦ꆢ뎥뢶쓜솦ꆢ닺폫춶맜샭쓜솦훐뗄닮뻠ꎬퟅ훘횸 8
쓏뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 돶뎥뢶쓜솦쫇훆풼훐놣쿕릫쮾랢햹뗄훘튪틲쯘ꎻ랶랽횾ꆢ퇮뎬ꆢ샮룉뇳?2006??㈹?듓닆컱ꆢ뿍뮧ꆢ웳튵퓋펪뫍랢햹뗈랽쏦돶랢ꎬ틔욽뫢볆럖뾨캪움볛랽램ꎬ뾪뒴탔뗘붨솢쇋틔뎤웚햽싔캪뫋탄뗄뺭펪벨킧움볛쳥쾵ꎻ쳯룟솼ꆢ십맣뻼ꆢ헅몪?2007??㌰?틀뻝웳튵뫋탄뺺헹솦샭싛ꎬ뷡뫏맺쓚쪵볊쟩뿶ꎬ톡좡25볒놣쿕릫쮾ퟷ캪퇐뺿퇹놾뷸탐쪵횤볬퇩ꎬ퇐뺿펰쿬컒맺놣쿕릫쮾벨킧뗄맘볼틲쯘ꎬ횸돶웳튵맦쒣ꆢ쯹뒦뗘폲ꆢ엢뢶싊ꆢ놣럑쫕죫뗈퓚펰쿬컒맺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뗄틲쯘훐햼폐훘튪뗘캻ꎻ닜재?2007??嬳??죏캪컒맺놣쿕볠맜뗄뫋탄쫇뛔뎥뢶쓜솦뗄볠맜ꎬ뎥뢶쓜솦쫇놣쿕릫쮾삵틔짺듦뗄믹뒡ꎬ틲듋놣쿕탐튵뗄뺭펪벨킧움볛뇘탫쓉죫뎥뢶쓜솦헢튻횸뇪ꆣ?ퟛ짏쯹쫶ꎬ떽쒿잰캪횹ꎬ웳튵뺭펪벨킧움볛훷튪탎돉쇋틔닆컱캪믹뒡뗄뺭펪벨킧움볛ꆢ틔EVA캪믹뒡뗄뺭펪벨킧움볛벰ퟛ뫏뺭펪벨킧움볛죽샠돉맻ꆣ냩쯦ퟅ뺭볃뗄뿬쯙랢햹ꎬퟛ뫏뺭펪벨킧움볛풽살풽뗃떽훘쫓ꆣ뛸컒맺닆닺놣쿕튵뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿쿠뛔뷏췭ꎬ뛸쟒틔뒫춳뗄닆컱횸뇪캪훷ꎬ웤랽램뗄샭싛벰쪵볹퇐뺿쿠뛔실뫳ꎬ뇘탫볓잿뛔닆닺놣쿕뺭펪벨킧움볛쳘뇰쫇ퟛ뫏뺭펪벨킧움볛뗄퇐뺿ꎬ틔횸떼붭쯕쪡짵훁좫맺닆닺놣쿕웳튵뗄뺭펪쪵볹ꆣ 놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛랽램룅쫶 ꎨ1ꎩ욽뫢볆럖뾨?욽뫢볆럖뾨(BSC)쫇닆컱횸뇪폫럇닆컱횸뇪쿠뷡뫏뗄튵벨움볛횸뇪쳥쾵ꎬ쯼잿뗷웳튵듓헻쳥짏살뾼싇펪쿺ꆢ짺닺ꆢ퇐랢ꆢ닆컱ꆢ죋솦풴뗈늿쏅횮볤뗄킭뗷춳튻ꆣ쯼훷튪듓쯄룶닣쏦살뫢솿웳튵ꎺ튻쫇닆솦닣쏦:웳튵뺭펪뗄ퟮ훕쒿뇪뚼쫇캪막뚫뒴퓬볛횵ꎬ뺡맜퓚훆뚨햽싔ꆢ뛔샻죳뗄튪쟳뗈랽쏦듦퓚ퟅ믲듳믲킡뗄닮틬ꆣ웤룅삨탔횸뇪훷튪폐:춶놨돪싊ꆢ뺭볃퓶볓횵뗈ꆣ뛾쫇뿍뮧닣쏦ꎺ싺ퟣ뿍뮧탨쟳ꎬ틔뿍뮧탨쟳캪떼쿲쳡릩닺욷뫍럾컱ꎬ쫇웳튵샻죳뗄룹놾놣횤ꆣ헢쫇듓뿍뮧뷇뛈(췢늿)뾼뫋웳튵퓚뛔쫐뎡탨쟳뗄랴펦뫍릩펦ꆢ닺욷훊솿뫍럾컱뗈랽쏦뗄쓜솦ꆣ웤룅삨탔횸뇪훷튪폐:뿍뮧싺틢뛈ꆢ뿍뮧훒돏뛈(놣돖싊)ꆢ쫐뎡럝뛮뗈ꆣ죽쫇톧쾰폫돉뎤닣쏦ꎺ늻뛏쳡룟풱릤쓜솦쯘훊ꎬ쫇웳튵놣돖돖탸랢햹쓜솦ꆢ늢늻뛏뒴퓬탂뗄볛횵ퟩ횯벨킧움볛쳥쾵릫쮾닆컱쪵솦움볛쳥쾵릫쮾훎샭움볛쳥쾵뗄맘볼뮷뷚ꆣ웤룅삨탔횸뇪폐:풱릤싺틢뛈ꆢ풱릤훒돏뛈뗈ꆣ쯄쫇쓚늿쇷돌닣쏦ꎺ쯹폐뺭펪뫍짺닺ꎬ뚼뇘탫쫗쿈퓚쓚늿췪돉ꎬ틲듋뾼뫋웳튵쓚늿ퟩ횯볜릹ꆢ튵컱쇷돌ꆢ맜샭믺훆뗈ꆣ웤룅삨탔횸뇪폐:닺욷믲럾컱훊솿ꆢ돉놾뿘훆뗈ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ틲ퟓ럖컶램?틲ퟓ럖컶램웰풴폚20쫀볍돵욤뛻즭뫍쮹욤뛻싼뗈죋맘폚훇솦닢퇩뗄춳볆럖컶ꆣ쯦ퟅ쿖듺뗧ퟓ볆쯣믺뗄돶쿖ꎬ틲ퟓ럖컶뗄샭싛돉릦뗘퓋폃폚뺭볃맜샭톧쇬폲ꆣ틲ퟓ럖컶램뗄믹놾쮼쿫쫇뛔죴룉룶횸뇪뷸탐틲ퟓ럖컶쳡좡틲ퟓꎬ퓙틔쎿룶틲ퟓ뗄샫닮릱쿗싊ퟷ캪좨쫴폚틲ퟓ뗃럖뗄돉벨ퟜ뫍릹퓬ퟛ뫏뗃럖몯쫽ꆣ쯼쫇룹뻝쿠맘탔뗄듳킡냑뇤솿럖ퟩꎬ쪹뗃춬ퟩ쓚뗄뇤솿횮볤쿠맘탔(릲탔)뷏룟ꎬ뛸늻쫇춬ퟩ뗄뇤솿쿠맘탔뷏뗍ꆣ헢퇹듓쪵볊틢틥짏쮵ꎬ쎿ퟩ듺뇭튻룶랽쏦(틲ퟓ)ꎬ뻍춳9
붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿 볆틢틥붲ꎬ쎿ퟩ듺뇭쇋풭킭랽닮뷡릹뗄튻룶믹놾뷡릹ꆣ웤폫훷돉럖럖컶뗄쟸뇰퓚폚ꎬ훷돉럖쫇풭살뇤솿뗄쿟탔몯쫽ꎬ쫇뛔풭뇤솿탅쾢뗄ퟛ뫏ꎬ쎿룶훷돉럖뻍쫇튻룶ퟛ뫏횸뇪(릫틲ퟓ)ꎬ늢틔쯼쏇캪뿲볜ꎬ붫뇤솿럖뷢캪릲탔늿럖뫍룶탔늿럖ꎬ듓뛸뚴달풭뇤솿볤뗄솪쾵폫쟸뇰ꆣ ꎨ3ꎩ쫽뻝냼싧럖컶램 쫽뻝냼싧럖컶램(Date Envelopment Analysisꎬ볲돆DEA)쫇폐쏀맺훸쏻퓋돯톧볒뫍Cooper 틔쿠뛔폐킧탔룅쓮캪믹뒡랢햹웰살뗄튻훖킧맻움볛랽램ꎬ훷튪폃폚움볛뻟폐뛠쫤죫쫤돶횸뇪뗄춬샠웳튵횮볤뺭펪뗄쿠뛔폐킧탔ꆣ1978쓪뗚튻룶DEA쒣탍붨솢틔살ꎬ폐맘뗄샭싛퇐뺿늻뛏짮죫ꎬ뫳살평캺좨쇤뗈탭뛠훐맺톧헟뷸튻늽랢햹뫍췪짆ꆣ웤쪵훊쫇룹뻝튻ퟩ맘폚뛠쫤죫ꆢ뛠쫤돶뗄맛달횮살맀볆폐킧짺닺뗄잰퇕쏦ꎬ늢뻝듋뷸탐뛠쒿뇪ퟛ뫏킧맻움볛ꆣ쯼뗄럖컶ힼ좷폫럱폐삵폚웳튵뗄쪵볊춳볆쫽ퟖꎬ웤쫤죫쫤돶횸뇪뇈뷏좫쏦랴펳쇋웳튵뗄헦쪵쇏ꆣ 10
쓏뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 뗚죽헂 붭쯕쪡닆놣릫쮾뺭펪벨킧럖컶벰움볛횸뇪쳥쾵붨솢 좫쏦ꆢ뿍맛뗘움볛놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧ꎬ뫜훘튪뗄믹뒡뫍잰쳡탔릤ퟷ뻍쫇붨솢튻룶뿆톧뫏샭뗄움볛횸뇪쳥쾵ꆣ튻랽쏦탨튪뷨본맺쓚췢돉쫬뗄움볛횸뇪쳥쾵ꎬ쇭튻랽쏦폖튪뷡뫏놣쿕릫쮾랢햹뗄쪵볊쟩뿶ꆣ놾헂붫뷡뫏붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧쿖ힴꎬ뻟쳥릹붨웤뺭펪벨킧움볛횸뇪쳥쾵ꆣ? 붭쯕쪡닺쿕튵랢햹쿖ힴ 2009쓪ꎬ붭쯕쪡쪡닺쿕릫쮾샛볆풭놣쿕놣럑쫕죫틚풪ꎬ춬뇈퓶뎤ꎥꎬ퓶럹룟폚짏쓪춬웚룶냙럖뗣ꎬ룟폚좫맺욽뻹쮮욽룶냙럖뗣ꎬퟜ솿볌탸캻뻓좫맺뗚뛾ꆣ쯦ퟅ놣럑맦쒣뗄퓶뎤ꎬ붭쯕쪡닺쿕튵쫐뎡뗘캻폐쯹짏짽ꎬ솽룶뇈훘짏짽ꎺ놣럑쫕죫햼좫맺닺쿕놣럑뇈훘캪ꎥꎬ춬뇈짏짽룶냙럖뗣ꎻ닺쿕놣럑쫕죫햼좫쪡ퟜ놣럑쫕죫뇈훘캪%ꎬ춬뇈짏짽룶냙럖뗣ꎻ춬쪱엢뿮퓶쯙쿂붵ꎬ2009쓪ꎬ좫쪡닺쿕릫쮾샛볆엢뢶횧돶틚풪ꎬ춬뇈퓶뎤%ꎬ퓶쯙뗍폚짏쓪춬웚룶냙럖뗣ꆣퟜ쳥짏뿋럾쇋뷰죚캣믺듸살뗄늻샻펰쿬ꎬ쫐뎡퓋탐ퟜ쳥욽컈ꎬ놣럑쫕죫퓚룟캻짏쪵쿖뿬쯙퓶뎤ꎬ뺭펪킧틦훰늽룄짆ꎬ뷡릹뗷헻컈늽췆뷸ꎬ쫐뎡훈탲볌탸뫃ꎬ놣쿕럧쿕뗃떽폐킧럀랶ꎬ럾컱쇬폲볌탸췘뿭ꎬ뷏뫃뗘쪵쿖쇋볈뚨쒿뇪ꆣퟜ뗄살쮵ꎬ2009쓪붭쯕닺쿕쫐뎡ퟜ쳥돊쿖돶ꆰ훈탲뫃ꆢ복뿷듳ꆢ뒴탂뛠ꆢ횸뇪폅ꆱ쯄듳쇁뗣ꆣ?쯤좻2009쓪붭쯕닺쿕쫐뎡랢햹쫆춷뫜뫃ꎬ떫튲튪쟥탑뗘죏쪶떽ꎬ붭쯕닺쿕쫐뎡튻킩뎤웚믽샛뗄쎬뛜죔좻쪮럖춻돶ꎬ춬쪱폖돶쿖튻킩탨튪쏜쟐맘힢뗄탂쟩뿶탂컊쳢ꎺ?ꎨ1ꎩ붻잿쿕돶쿖뻞뛮뿷쯰ꎬ늿럖뎵탍춶놣듦퓚삧쓑?2009쓪ꎬ퓚좫쪡닺쿕뺭펪킧틦듳럹쳡짽뗄춬쪱ꎬ붻잿쿕뺭펪돶쿖쇋퇏훘뿷쯰ꆣ돐놣샻죳틚풪ꎬ뇈짏쓪춬웚퓶뿷틚풪ꎬ뿷쯰뛮캻뻓좫맺뗚튻ꆣ좫쪡붻잿쿕뗄뿷쯰훷튪살ퟔ폚엢뢶ힴ뿶뗄뛱뮯ꆣ2009쓪ꎬ좫쪡붻잿쿕엢뿮횧돶춬뇈짏짽쇋%ꎬ룟폚춬웚놣럑쫕죫퓶쯙룶냙럖뗣ꎻퟛ뫏엢뢶싊ꎥꎬ룟폚짏쓪춬웚룶냙럖뗣ꎬ룟폚좫맺욽뻹룶냙럖뗣ꆣ퓚늿럖뗘쟸쿈뫳돶쿖쇋평폚췏삭믺ꆢ쒦췐뎵붻잿쿕퇏훘뿷쯰뛸떼훂춶놣쓑틽랢뗄좺럃쫂볾ꎬ펰쿬쇋붻잿쿕뗄퓋탐컈뚨ꆣ?듓짮닣듎럖컶ꎬ붭쯕붻잿쿕뗄뿷쯰쫇쓚췢늿풭틲릲춬ퟷ폃뗄뷡맻ꆣ붭쯕쳘폐뗄붻잿쿕쪵쪩뮷뺳쫇췢틲ꎬ훷튪냼삨틔쿂죽뗣ꎺ튻쫇붭쯕뗘쟸죋짭짋몦엢뎥뇪ힼ룟ꆣ붻춨쫂맊죋짭짋췶닐벲엢뎥뷰뫍쯀췶엢뎥뷰뗄볆쯣믹ힼ캪쫜쯟램풺쯹퓚뗘짏튻쓪뛈돇헲뻓쏱죋뻹뿉횧엤쫕죫믲헟얩듥뻓쏱죋뻹뒿쫕죫ꆣ붭쯕2008쓪짏쫶솽쿮뇪ힼ럖뇰캪18680풪뫍7357풪ꎬ럖뇰룟폚훐컷늿쪡럝뷼60%뫍180%ꆣ죋짭짋몦엢뎥뇪ힼ뷏룟횱뷓떼훂붭쯕붻잿쿕엢뿮횧돶뷏룟ꆣ뛾쫇붭쯕뗀슷붻춨뮷뺳뇈뷏퇏뻾ꎬ죋짋11
붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿 낸볾햼뇈욫룟ꆣ춻돶뇭쿖퓚ꎺ늿럖붻춨릤뻟뗄럇뇪뮯ꎬ죧쯕놱얩듥뗘쟸듦퓚뗄듳솿죽싖믺뚯뎵ꎬ쯹돖없횤뇪쏷캪ꆰ헽죽싖쒦췐뎵ꆱꎬ웤업솿늻듳ꎬ떫웤퓘훘솿짵훁쓜듯떽1뛖ꎬ럧쿕풶듳폚뒫춳틢틥짏뗄쒦췐뎵ꎻ뗀슷붻춨낲좫맜샭뗄삧쓑뮯ꎬ죧듳솿룄ힰ쒦췐뎵뫍뎬뇪ꆰ뇤탍췏삭믺ꆱ듓쫂뿍믵퓋쫤ꎬ뗧뚯ퟔ탐뎵늻ퟱ쫘붻춨맦퓲ꎬ돇쿧뷡뫏늿뗀슷낲좫틾뮼뛠ꆢ뛱탔쫂맊욵랢ꎬ헢킩틲쯘떼훂쇋붭쯕믺뚯뎵붻춨쫂맊훐짦벰죋짭짋췶뗄낸볾쫽솿뫍쫜몦죋뗄짋닐뗈듎뻹뷏룟ꆣ죽쫇붭쯕룷벶램풺퓚쮾램짳에쪵볹훐룼뛠닉좡쇋욫쿲폚붻춨쫂맊쫜몦죋뗄풭퓲ꆣ냼삨붫뺫짱쯰몦뢧캿뷰퓚붻잿쿕쿞뛮쓚폅쿈엢뢶ꎻ뛔뎬돶튽놣랶캧뗄튽쇆럑폃에뻶엢뎥ꎻ붫붻잿쿕쳵샽뗚22쳵맦뚨뗄뗦뢶럑폃에뻶캪엢뢶럑폃뗈ꆣ헢킩뿍맛틲쯘뗄펰쿬쪹붻잿쿕럑싊폫붭쯕뗘쟸뗄쪵볊럧쿕ힴ뿶늻쿠욥엤ꎬ붵뗍쇋놣럑돤ퟣ탔ꎬ볓뻧쇋붭쯕쪡붻잿쿕뗄뿷쯰ꆣ?릫쮾ퟔ짭뺭펪짏뗄컊쳢쫇쓚틲ꎬ튻킩릫쮾쳘뇰쫇ퟜ릫쮾뗄횸떼쮼쿫뮹뇈뷏돂뻉ꎬ폈웤쫇튻킩뻟폐맺폐듳막뚫놳뺰뗄탂탋훐킡릫쮾ꎬ퓚뺭펪짏죈훔폚워첯ퟓꆢ짏맦쒣ꎬ닉좡듖럅탍뗄맜샭ꎬ늻뾼싇뎤풶컈붡뗄랢햹ꎬ붫사미튵컱뫍쇓훊뗄펪쿺뛓컩췸싞쿂ꆣ췹췹돐놣샭엢룷룶뮷뷚췢늿뮷뺳룄뇤쇋ꎬ떫쓚늿뗄맜샭쳥훆쎻폐룄뇤ꆣ놣럑맦쒣짏좥쇋ꎬ뺭펪킧틦쿂살쇋ꆣ?펦룃뾴떽ꎬ퓚쓚췢틲뗄쿠뮥맘쾵짏ꎬ췢틲횻쫇뇤뮯뗄쳵볾ꎬ쓚틲닅쫇뇤뮯뗄룹풴ꎬ췢틲ퟮ훕쫇춨맽쓚틲웰ퟷ폃뗄ꆣ춬퇹쫇붻잿쿕ꎬ맣뚫뻍쓜릻뿘훆힡럑폃뫍엢뢶ꎬ쪵쿖쇋펯샻ꆣ듓붭쯕쪡쓚뾴ꎬ퓚춬퇹퇏뻾뗄뺭펪뮷뺳훐ꎬ튲폐튻킩릫쮾춨맽뺫쾸맜샭ꆢ뷚풼뾪횧ꆢ붵뗍돉놾ꎬ붫췢늿뮷뺳뗄늻샻펰쿬붵떽ퟮ뗍ꎬ쪵쿖쇋뺭펪킧틦ꆣ죧욽낲릫쮾퓚2009쓪12퓂떱퓂뻍쪵쿖붻잿쿕펯샻2121췲풪ꆣ틲듋ꎬ룷릫쮾튪룼뛠뗄듓ퟔ짭헒풭틲ꎬ듓ퟔ짭췚잱솦ꎬ솢ퟣퟔ짭뷢뻶컊쳢ꎬ뺡뿬얤붻잿쿕뺭펪뗄늻샻뻖쏦ꎬ쪵쿖짧믡킧틦뫍뺭펪늻펯늻뿷뗄쮫훘쒿뇪ꆣꎨ?ꎩ튻킩릫쮾죔좻닉좡듖럅쪽뗄랢햹랽쪽?뎤웚틔살ꎬ늿럖닺쿕릫쮾좱랦뛔쿖듺놣쿕튵랢햹맦싉뗄ힼ좷냑컕ꎬ닉좡룟춶죫ꆢ룟쿻뫄뗄듖럅쪽랢햹쒣쪽ꎬ벤샸뾼뫋헾닟욫훘폚놣럑쫕죫맦쒣뫍퓶뎤럹뛈ꆣ뺭펪훐훷튪틀뾿럖룮쿖폐쫐뎡삩헅튵컱맦쒣ꎬ늻힢훘뾪췘탂뗄튵컱쇬폲ꎬ튵컱뷡릹늻뫏샭ꎻ늻볆돉놾워첯ퟓꆢ삭죋춷ꎬ쎤쒿삩헅믺릹ꎬ워헅샋럑퇏훘ꎻ쫐뎡뺺헹쫖뛎떥튻ꎬ쳘뇰퓚럇뎵쿕뺭펪훐럇샭탔볛룱뺺헹컊쳢죔좻쪮럖춻돶ꎬ럑싊돖탸ퟟ뗍ꆣ폐킩릫쮾쓚뿘맜샭늻떽캻ꎬ퓚뫋놣맽돌훐좱랦뛔놣쿕뇪뗄쪵볊럧쿕ힴ뿶뗄헆컕ꎬ쇓훊튵컱햼폐뷏듳뇈훘ꎻ퓚샭엢맽돌훐늻쓜뫜뫃뿘훆럧쿕뫍늻떱엢뿮ꎻ볓횮뚨쯰샭엢훆뛈늻붡좫믲횴탐늻떽캻ꎬ퓬돉샭엢맽돌듦퓚ꆰ엜쎰뗎슩ꆱ쿖쿳ꆣ랢햹랽쪽뗄듖럅쫇퓬돉릫쮾퓚뺭펪훐죋뻹닺쓜뗍ꎬ럑폃돉놾룟ꎬ뺭펪킧틦뗍쿂뗄룹놾풭틲ꆣ?ퟛ짏쯹쫶ꎬ붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕튵뗄랢햹듦퓚ퟅ뫜뛠컊쳢ꎬ붨솢붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛횸뇪쳥쾵ꎬ횸돶펰쿬룷닺쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뗄맘볼탔틲쯘ꎬ캪붭쯕쪡닺쿕튵쪵쿖폖뫃폖뿬랢햹쳡릩틀뻝ꎬ쿔뗃폈캪훘튪ꆣ?? 12
쓏뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧쿖ힴ럖컶 펯샻쓜솦럖컶 펯샻쓜솦ꎬ쫇횸웳튵뺭펪훐믱좡샻죳뗄쓜솦ꎬ펯샻쓜솦뗄뫃뮵ꎬ랴펳쇋웳튵뺺헹솦뗄잿죵ꆣ춬웤쯻탐튵릫쮾튻퇹ꎬ펯샻튲쫇놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪믮뚯뗄룹놾돶랢뗣뫍ퟮ훕쒿뇪ꎬ룼쫇릫쮾돉뎤폫랢햹뗄뇘튪잰쳡ꆣ솼뫃뗄펯샻쓜솦ꎬ쳥쿖쇋놣쿕릫쮾퓚튵컱췘햹ꆢ돉놾뿘훆ꆢ놾맜샭ꆢ춶맜샭뗈랽쏦뻟폐뷏잿뗄뺺헹폅쫆ꆣ뛔폚놣쿕릫쮾살쮵ꎬ펯샻쓜솦훷튪쫇평돐놣튵컱폫춶튵컱ꆰ쮫싖쟽뚯ꆱꎬ돐놣튵컱쫇뷰뗄살풴ꎬ쫇웳튵짺듦뗄믹쪯ꎬ룼쫇릫쮾뾪햹춶튵컱뗄잰쳡ꆣ춶튵컱뗄닺믘놨싊룟ꎬ튲믡랴맽살뛔돐놣튵컱뗄뾪햹웰떽췆뚯ퟷ폃ꆣ틔돐놣튵컱캪믹뒡ꎬ돐놣폫춶튵컱늢훘ꎬ쫇쿖듺놣쿕웳튵믱뗃ퟮ듳돌뛈펯샻뗄폐킧랽램ꆣ틲듋ꎬ놾닣쏦듓펰쿬놣쿕릫쮾펯샻뗄쫕죫ꎬ돉놾럑폃ꎬ닺쫕틦죽룶랽쏦톡퓱쯄룶횸뇪살뷸탐뫢솿ꆣ?ꎨ1ꎩ럑폃싊?럑폃싊쫇횸놣쿕릫쮾뗄돐놣럑폃폫놣럑쫕죫횮볤뗄뇈싊ꎬ랴펳놣쿕릫쮾캪좡뗃놣럑쫕죫뛸뢶돶뗄럑폃ꎬ뿉뫢솿놣쿕릫쮾뗄뺭펪맜샭쮮욽ꆣ쯼쫇볬퇩놣쿕릫쮾룷쿮럑폃맜샭쮮욽뗄ퟜ튪뺭볃횸뇪ꆣ퓚췪돉튵컱솿믹뒡짏ꎬ럑폃싊풽뗍ꎬ뇭쏷놣쿕릫쮾뗄럑폃쮮욽풽뗍ꎬ펯샻쓜솦풽잿ꎬ쫴폚쓦횸뇪ꆣ웤볆쯣릫쪽캪ꎺ?럑폃싊?돐놣럑폃ꇂ놣럑쫕죫ꇁ100%†††††††††††ꎨꎩ 㐰⸰〥㌵⸰〥㌰⸰〥㈵⸰〥㈰⸰〥ㄵ⸰〥⸰〥㔮〰?〮〰?죋놣첫욽퇳욽낲뮪첩쳬낲훐뮪솪뫏폀낲퇴맢낲냮뚼냮춼 럑폃싊햹쪾춼?죧춼쯹쪾ꎬ10볒닆놣릫쮾훐ꎬퟮ룟럑폃싊캪뚼냮뗄%ꎬퟮ뗍럑폃싊캪죋놣뗄%ꆣ첫욽퇳ꎬ욽낲튲뇭쿖돶뷏뗍뗄럑폃싊ꎻ럑폃싊퓚25%ꆫ30%뗄릫쮾폐3볒ꎬ햼퇹놾ퟜ솿뗄30%ꎻ럑폃싊퓚30%틔짏뗄릫쮾폐3볒ꎬ햼퇹놾ퟜ솿뗄30%ꆣ평듋뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ훮죧죋놣ꆢ첫욽퇳ꆢ욽낲ꎬ릫쮾맦쒣뇈뷏듳ꎬ놣쿕튵컱뗄쫐뎡럝뛮튲뷏룟ꎬ럑폃싊뇈뷏뗍ꎻ뛸뮪첩ꆢ쳬낲ꆢ13
붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿 뚼냮뗈릫쮾ꎬ웰늽췭ꎬ쫐뎡럝뛮킡ꎬ럑폃싊좴뷏룟ꆣ헢튲쮵쏷릫쮾뗄맦쒣폫럑폃싊횮볤듦퓚ퟅ튻뚨돌뛈짏뢺쿠맘뗄쿟탔맘쾵ꆣ럑폃싊풽뗍ꎬ릫쮾뗄ퟛ뫏맜샭쮮욽풽룟ꎻ랴횮ꎬ퓲쿠랴ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ돐놣샻죳싊?돐놣샻죳횸뗄쫇놣쿕릫쮾냬샭놣쿕튵컱쯹믱뗃뗄샻죳ꎬ쫇샻죳ퟜ뛮폫춶쫕틦뗄닮횵ꆣ돐놣샻죳폫ퟜ놣럑쫕죫뗄뇈횵ꎬ돆캪돐놣샻죳싊ꆣ쯼쫇놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪튵컱펯샻쓜솦뗄쳥쿖ꎬ쫇움볛놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뗄훷튪횸뇪ꆣ돐놣샻죳싊풽룟ꎬ뇭쏷놣쿕릫쮾놣쿕튵컱펯샻쓜솦풽잿ꎬ쫴폚헽횸뇪ꆣ웤볆쯣릫쪽캪??돐놣샻죳싊?돐놣샻죳ꇂ놣럑쫕죫ꇁ100% ꎨꎩ ㄵ⸰〥⸰〥㔮〰?〮〰?죋첫욽뮪쳬훐폀퇴낲뚼ⴵ⸰〥놣욽낲첩낲뮪낲맢냮냮ⴱ〮〰?퇳솪ⴱ㔮〰?뫏ⴲ〮〰?ⴲ㔮〰?ⴳ〮〰?춼 ꎨꎩ 14
쓏뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 ⸰〥㔮〰?〮〰?ⴵ⸰〥ⴱ〮〰?죋놣ⴱ㔮〰?첫욽퇳욽낲뮪첩쳬낲훐뮪솪뫏폀낲퇴맢낲냮뚼냮ⴲ〮〰?ⴲ㔮〰?ⴳ〮〰?ⴳ㔮〰?ⴴ〮〰?ⴴ㔮〰?춼 뺻샻죳싊햹쪾춼?죧춼쯹쪾ꎬ평폚돐놣샻죳싊뗄펰쿬ꎬ룷볒릫쮾뗄뺻샻죳싊쟩뿶폫돐놣샻죳싊믹놾샠쯆ꆣퟮ룟횵캪낲냮뗄%ꎬퟮ뗍횵캪뚼냮뗄%ꆣ횵뗃튻쳡뗄쫇ꎬ돐놣샻죳싊ퟮ룟뗄뮪첩ꎬ평폚웤럑폃싊뷏룟ꎬ뺻샻죳싊뷶캪%ꎬ퓚6볒뺻샻죳싊캪헽뗄릫쮾훐업쏻ퟮ뫳ꎻ돐놣샻죳싊ퟮ뗍뗄뚼냮ꎬ틲웤럑폃싊업쏻튲캪ퟮ뫳ꎬ떼훂웤뺻샻죳싊뢺횵룼듳ꆣ평듋뿉볻ꎬ뺻샻죳싊쫇럑폃싊폫돐놣샻죳싊뗄ퟛ뫏쳥쿖ꎬ뇈뷏좫쏦뗄랴펳쇋놣쿕릫쮾뗄펯샻쓜솦ꆣ?ꎨ4ꎩ뺻닺쫕틦싊?뺻닺쫕틦싊쫇횸놣쿕릫쮾퓚튻뚨쪱웚쓚뗄뺻샻죳폫뺻닺ퟜ뛮뗄냙럖뇈ꆣ룃횸뇪돤럖쳥쿖쇋놣쿕릫쮾퓋폃춶헟춶죫놾믱뗃쫕틦뗄쓜솦ꎬ춻돶랴펳쇋춶폫쫕틦뗄맘쾵ꎬ쫇움볛놣쿕릫쮾펯샻쓜솦뗄뫋탄횸뇪ꆣ뺻닺쫕틦싊쫇뫢솿놣쿕릫쮾퓋폃ퟔ폐놾뗄킧싊ꎬ쫇웤쫕틦쮮욽뗄ퟛ뫏랴펳ꎬ퓚뺭펪벨킧움볛뗄닆컱탔횸뇪훐ꎬퟮ뻟폐듺뇭탔ꆣ횸뇪횵풽룟ꎬ쮵쏷놣쿕릫쮾퓋폃놾뷸탐뗄춶듸살뗄쫕틦풽룟ꎬ뛔릫쮾막뚫뗄좨틦폫춶놣뿍뮧뗄샻틦튲풽폐놣횤ꎬ쯹틔쫴폚헽횸뇪ꆣ웤볆쯣릫쪽캪?? 뺻닺쫕틦싊=뺻샻죳ꇂ뺻닺ꇁ100% ꎨꎩ?㔮〰?〮〰?ⴵ⸰〥죋놣첫욽퇳욽낲뮪첩쳬낲훐뮪솪뫏폀낲퇴맢낲냮뚼냮ⴱ〮〰?ⴱ㔮〰?ⴲ〮〰?ⴲ㔮〰?춼
붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿 %ꆣ쳬낲ꎬ훐뮪솪뫏ꎬ폀낲ꎬ뚼냮캪뢺횵ꎬ늢쟒뢺횵뷏듳ꎬ햼퇹놾ퟜ솿뗄40%ꆣ평듋뿉볻ꎬ퓚붭쯕쪡쿖폐닆닺놣쿕쫐뎡짏ꎬ샏없뗄듳훐탍훐놣쿕릫쮾뺻닺쫕틦싊쿠뛔뷏룟ꎬ쫐뎡짏뷸죫뷏췭뗄릫쮾뺻닺쫕틦싊쮮욽듳늿럖킡폚0ꆣ헢뛔폚탂뷸죫헟살쮵쫇헽뎣뗄ꎬ틲캪룹뻝맺볊짏뗄뺭퇩ꎬ닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뗄펯뿷욽뫢웚튻냣캪8쓪ퟳ폒ꎬ떫뛔폚뺭펪샺쪷뎬맽8쓪뗄릫쮾살쮵ꎬ죧맻웤뺻닺쫕틦싊튻횱킡폚0ꎬ쓇쎴웤뺭펪탎쫆뻍믡럇뎣퇏뻾ꆣ? 뎥뢶쓜솦럖컶 놣쿕릫쮾뎥뢶쓜솦쫇횸릫쮾뛔춶놣죋싄탐샭엢믲룸뢶퓰죎뗄쓜솦ꎬ쫇놣쿕릫쮾뷰쪵솦폫ퟔ짭돐떣뗄엢뎥퓰죎럧쿕뗄뇈뷏ꆣ놣쿕릫쮾쫇뺭펪럧쿕뗄믺릹ꎬ캪쇋펦뛔쯦쪱뿉쓜랢짺뗄ퟔ좻퓖몦뫍틢췢쫂맊ꎬ뇘탫놣횤ퟣ릻뗄뷰믽샛벰믹놾뗄뎥뢶쓜솦ꆣ틲듋뎥뢶쓜솦뗄볠맜돉캪맺볒뛔놣쿕탐튵쪵쪩볠맜뗄뫋탄쓚죝ꆣꆶ훐뮪죋쏱릲뫍맺놣쿕램ꆷ쿠맘쳵샽맦뚨?ꆰ놣쿕릫쮾뗄뎥뢶쓜솦뇘탫폫웤뺭펪맦쒣쿠쫊펦ꆣ웤쪵볊닺복좥뢺햮뗄닮뛮늻뗃뗍폚컒맺뷰죚볠맜늿쏅쯹맦뚨뗄쫽뛮ꎻ죧맻뗍폚쯹맦뚨뗄쫽뛮ꎬ퓲뇘탫춨맽퓶볓놾뷰살붫닮뛮늹ퟣꆣꆱ놣쿕릫쮾쫇럱뻟폐뷏뫃뗄뎥뢶쓜솦ꎬ쫇릫쮾짺듦뫍랢햹뗄훘튪잰쳡ꎬ맘쾵떽춶놣죋뗄쟐짭샻틦폫춶탅탄ꆣ룄짆놣쿕릫쮾뎥뢶쓜솦ꎬ쫇캬뮤춶놣죋샻틦ꎬ듙뷸릫쮾컈뚨ꆢ붡뾵ꆢ돖탸랢햹뗄뇘뺭횮슷ꆣ??ꎨ1ꎩ닺뢺햮싊?닺뢺햮싊쫇뫢솿놣쿕릫쮾쪹폃햮좨죋뗄뷰살뷸탐뺭펪믮뚯쓜솦뗄튻쿮횸뇪ꎬ쓜릻랴펳햮좨죋쯹랢럅듻뿮뗄놣횤돌뛈ꆣ닺뢺햮싊쳥쿖쇋놣쿕릫쮾뗄뢺햮ퟜ뛮퓚웤ퟜ닺훐뗄햼뇈ꎬ쫇에뛏놣쿕릫쮾뛌웚폫뎤웚뎥햮쓜솦뗄훘튪횸뇪ꆣ?평폚뻙햮뺭펪뗄룜룋샻틦ꎬ뺭펪헟뿉틔춨맽뷨듻뷰ꎬ쏖늹ퟔ평뷰뗄늻ퟣꎬ늻뷶뿉틔캪튵컱뗄뾪햹쳡릩ퟣ릻뗄뷰놣헏ꎬ튲쓜릻믱뗃뷏뫃뗄춶쫕틦ꆣ떫쫇듓햮좨죋ꎨ춶놣죋ꎩ뗄뷇뛈살뾴ꎬ쯻쏇ퟮ맘탄뗄쫇퓚릫쮾쯹춶놣럑뗄낲좫돌뛈ꎬ쫇럱쓜퓚내헕쯹잩뚩뗄놣쿕뫏춬짏맦뚨죕웚쓚믱뗃믘놨ꎬ릫쮾뗄닺뢺햮싊풽뗍ꎬ릫쮾뛔놣쿕튵컱뗄엢뢶쓜솦풽잿ꎬ춶놣죋뗄샻틦튲룼폐놣헏ꆣ죧맻릫쮾뗄닺뢺햮싊뷏룟ꎬ쮵쏷놣쿕릫쮾뗄퓋펪폫훜맽뛈틀삵폚춶놣죋뗄놣럑쫕죫ꎬ튻떩릫쮾뺭펪돶쿖컊쳢믲헟쫐뎡탐쟩떭ꎬ믡뛔릫쮾뗄뎥뢶쓜솦퓬돉벫듳펰쿬ꎬ늻뷶뿍뮧뗄춶놣샻틦튲컞듓첸웰ꎬ릫쮾튲뿉쓜틲캪맽뛈뗄뎥햮톹솦뛸떼훂웆닺쟥쯣ꆣ틲듋ꎬ놣쿕릫쮾뇘탫퓚샻죳폫뢺햮럧쿕횮볤좨뫢샻몦뗃쪧ꎬ볈튪믱뗃뷏뫃뗄쫕틦ꎬ폖튪쪹릫쮾늻훁폚놳뢺맽듳뗄뎥뢶톹솦ꎬ뿘훆ퟔ평닺폫뢺햮뗄뇈샽ꎬ쪵쿖쫕틦폫럧쿕뗄뻹뫢ꆣ틀뻝컒맺닆닺놣쿕2009쓪탐튵닺뢺햮싊욽뻹횵캪%ꎬ틲듋좡룃횵캪닺뢺햮싊뗄쫊뛈횵ꎬ웤볆쯣릫쪽캪ꎺ ?닺뢺햮싊=뢺햮ퟜ뛮ꇂ닺ퟜ뛮ꇁ100% ꎨꎩ 16
쓏뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 ㈰〮〰?ㄸ〮〰?ㄶ〮〰?ㄴ〮〰?ㄲ〮〰?〮〰?㠰⸰〥㘰⸰〥㐰⸰〥㈰⸰〥〮〰?죋첫욽뮪쳬훐폀퇴낲뚼놣욽낲첩낲뮪낲맢냮냮퇳솪뫏춼 ꎨꎩ ㈰⸰〥ㄶㄸ⸰⸰〥〥ㄲㄴ⸰⸰〥〥⸰〥㘮㠮〰〰??〮㈮㐮〰〰〰???죋놣첫욽욽퇳낲뮪첩쳬낲훐뮪폀퇴솪낲맢낲냮뚼냮뫏춼 만뚨닺뇈싊햹쪾춼?17
붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿 죧춼쯹쪾ꎬ10볒닆놣릫쮾훐만뚨닺뇈싊ퟮ룟횵캪뚼냮뗄%ꎬퟮ뗍횵캪뮪첩뗄%ꎬ뻹풶뗍폚ꆶ놣쿕릫쮾닆컱훆뛈ꆷ만뚨닺뇈싊50%뗄짏쿞ꎬ뇭쏷붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뗄놾뷡릹엤훃뇈뷏뫏샭ꎬ닺뗄쇷뚯탔뫍뇤탎쓜솦뷏잿ꎬ쳥쿖쇋뷏잿뗄뎥뢶쓜솦ꆣ?ꎨ3ꎩ쇷뚯뇈싊?쇷뚯뇈싊쫇횸쇷뚯닺쿠뛔쇷뚯뢺햮뗄뇈싊ꎬ랴펳쇋웳튵뗄쇷뚯닺퓚뛌웚햮컱떽웚횮잰ꎬ뿉틔뇤캪쿖뷰듓뛸폃폚뎥뮹뢺햮뗄쓜솦ꆣ폫튻냣웳튵늻춬ꎬ놣쿕릫쮾훷펪튵컱훷튪쫇뛔캴살뿉쓜랢짺뗄틢췢쫂맊ꆢ죋짭짋몦ꆢ닆닺쯰쪧쯹돐떣뗄샭엢퓰죎ꎬ웤돐놣럧쿕폫뎥뢶탨쟳뻟폐뫜잿뗄쯦믺탔ꆣ쯹틔ꎬ닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뛔닺쇷뚯탔뗄튪쟳튪뇈웤쯻탐튵웳튵웈쟐뗄뛠ꆣ뛔폚춶놣죋살쮵ꎬ튲쫇쾣췻쇷뚯뇈싊풽룟풽뫃ꎬ틲캪뇈싊풽룟ꎬ릫쮾뎥뢶쓜솦풽잿ꎬ춶놣튲룼폐놣헏ꆣ떫쫇뛔폚놣쿕릫쮾ퟔ짭뛸퇔ꎬ맽룟뗄쇷뚯뇈싊ꎬ쮵쏷릫쮾뗄뷰맽뛠뗘훍쇴퓚쇷뚯닺짏ꎬ믡퇏훘펰쿬웤춶튵컱뗄닺쫕틦싊ꎬ뷰킧틦늻쓜뗃떽돤럖랢믓ꆣ내헕맺볊짏릫죏뗄놣쿕릫쮾쇷뚯뇈싊ꎬ튻냣틔2캪틋ꎬ쯹틔룃횸뇪튲쫴폚쫊뛈횸뇪ꆣ웤볆쯣릫쪽캪ꎺ?쇷뚯뇈싊?쇷뚯닺ꇂ쇷뚯뢺햮ꇁ100% ꎨꎩ ㈵〰⸰〥㈰〰⸰〥ㄵ〰⸰〥〰⸰〥㔰〮〰?〮〰?죋첫욽뮪쳬훐폀퇴낲뚼놣욽낲첩낲뮪낲맢냮냮퇳솪뫏춼 펪퓋쓜솦럖컶 ꎨ1ꎩ펦쫕놣럑훜싊?펦쫕놣럑쫇횸놣쿕릫쮾내헕쯹잩뚩뗄뫏춬풼뚨펦룃쿲춶놣죋쫕좡떫쪵볊짏짐캴쫕떽뗄놣럑쫕죫ꆣ튻뚨뗄펦쫕놣럑쫇놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪맽돌훐듦퓚뗄헽뎣쿖쿳ꆣ떫쫇펦쫕놣럑쯹햼놣럑쫕죫뇈샽맽룟ꎬ믡듸살뫜듳뗄뺭펪럧쿕ꆣ튻랽쏦ꎬ내헕햮좨랢짺훆뗄믡볆뫋쯣풭퓲ꎬ릫쮾폫춶놣죋잩 18
쓏뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 뚩뗄놣쿕뫏춬튻떩짺킧ꎬ펦쫕놣럑벴뗃떽좷죏ꎬ놣쿕릫쮾뻍뇘탫붫펦쫕놣럑ퟷ캪떱쓪쫕죫ꎬ뷉쓉쿠펦뗄펪튵쮰벰쯹뗃쮰ꆣ죧맻펦쫕놣럑늻쓜벰쪱쪱뫲ꎬ늻뷶믡퓬돉놣럑엝쒭탔퓶뎤ꎬ튲퓶볓쇋릫쮾뗄쮰뢳뢺떣ꎻ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ룟뛮뗄펦쫕놣럑ꎬ믡떼훂릫쮾늻뗃늻럅웺춶쿮쒿ꎬ퓚펦쫕놣럑웤훐믽톹듳솿뷰ꎬ튲벫듳돌뛈뗘펰쿬놣쿕듓튵죋풱튵컱뗄쮳샻뾪햹ꎬ헢킩뚼붫쪹릫쮾뗄뺭펪돉놾듳듳퓶볓ꎻ늢쟒퓚펦쫕놣럑훐ꎬ냼삨튻뚨뇈샽뗄듴헋ꆢ뮵헋ꎬ퓶볓쇋릫쮾뗄햮컱톹솦ꆣ틲듋ꎬ놣쿕릫쮾뎣폃펦쫕놣럑훜싊살움볛놣쿕릫쮾뗄닺맜샭킧싊ꆣ펦쫕놣럑훜싊풽룟ꎬ뇭쏷놣쿕릫쮾뷰퓋폃풽뫏샭ꎬ햮컱럧쿕풽킡ꎻ펦쫕놣럑훜싊풽뗍ꎬ퓲쿠랴ꎬ쫴폚헽횸뇪ꎬ웤볆쯣릫쪽캪?펦쫕놣럑훜싊?놣럑쫕죫ꇂ욽뻹펦쫕놣럑ꇁ100%†††††††?ꎨꎩ?ꎨ?ꎩ엢뢶싊?엢뢶싊횸뇪쫇쒳튻튵컱쓪뛈믲튻뚨쪱웚쓚엢뿮횧돶뫍놣럑쫕죫ퟜ뛮뗄뇈싊ꎬ쫇뾼뫋놣쿕릫쮾튵컱훊솿뗄횸뇪ꎬ폐샻폚뾼뫋놣쿕릫쮾돉놾ힴ뿶ꆢ뺭펪맜샭쮮욽뫍놣쿕뺭펪뗄짧믡킧틦쮮욽ꆣ튻냣쟩뿶쿂ꎬ엢뢶싊풽룟ꎬ놣쿕릫쮾펯샻풽뗍ꎬ웤펪퓋쮮욽튲풽뗍ꎬ쫴폚쓦횸뇪ꎬ웤볆쯣릫쪽캪ꎺ?엢뢶싊?엢뢶ꇂퟜ횧돶놣럑쫕죫ꇁ100% ꎨꎩ ㄶ〮〰?ㄴ〮〰?ㄲ〮〰?〮〰?㠰⸰〥㘰⸰〥㐰⸰〥㈰⸰〥〮〰?죋첫욽뮪쳬훐폀퇴낲뚼놣욽낲첩낲뮪낲맢냮냮퇳솪뫏춼 죧춼쯹쪾ꎬ10볒릫쮾훐엢뢶싊ퟮ룟횵캪낲냮뗄%ꎬퟮ뗍횵캪뮪첩뗄%ꆣ듓춼훐뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ죋놣ꆢ첫욽퇳ꆢ욽낲ꆢ뮪첩뗈벸볒놣쿕릫쮾엢뢶싊놣돖퓚뷏뗍쮮욽ꎬ쮵쏷웤놣쿕튵컱뺭펪룼캪폅훊ꎬ펪퓋쓜솦뗃틔쳥쿖ꆣ뛸쳬낲ꆢ낲냮ꆢ퇴맢죽볒릫쮾엢뢶싊뷏룟ꎬ늢쟒헢벸볒릫쮾쒿잰퓚쪡쓚닆쿕튵컱쫐뎡럝뛮뇈뷏킡ꎬ헢뇭쏷헢킩릫쮾캴삩듳쫐뎡럝뛮ꎬ쟀햼닆쿕쫐뎡뗄춬쪱ꎬ뺭펪맽폚듖럅ꎺ튻쫇캪쟀햼쫐뎡럝뛮뫶쫓돐놣뗄럧쿕쮮욽ꎻ뛾쫇뛔돐놣럧쿕쎻폐닉좡ퟣ릻폐킧뗄쫖뛎뷸탐럧쿕맜샭틔붵뗍럧쿕쯰쪧뗄랢짺ꆣ죧뫎뷢뻶뫃엢뢶싊뗄컊쳢ꎬ쫇훐킡탍19
붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿 닆닺놣쿕릫쮾릮만쫐뎡뗘캻ꎬ쳡룟펯샻쓜솦쫗쿈탨튪뷢뻶뗄컊쳢ꆣ 돉뎤쓜솦럖컶 ꎨ1ꎩ놣럑쫕죫퓶뎤싊?놣럑쫕죫퓶뎤싊쫇놨룦웚놣럑쫕죫퓶뎤뛮폫믹웚ퟜ놣럑쫕죫횮볤뗄뇈싊ꎬ쫇놣쿕릫쮾튵컱랢햹돉맻뗄쳥쿖ꎬ쫇뛔놣럑쫕죫횸뇪뗄늹돤ꎬ퓚횸뇪쳥쾵훐뻟폐쳘쫢뗄훘튪탔ꆣ놣럑쫕죫퓶뎤싊룟ꎬ쮵쏷놣쿕릫쮾퓚뾼뫋웚쓚튵컱췘햹뗃솦ꎬ뢲룇쏦뗄짮뛈뫍맣뛈뚼폐쯹쳡룟ꎬ폐샻폚릫쮾퓚뺺헹훐뷸튻늽믱뗃폅쫆ꎬ듯떽뎤웚돖탸뗄랢햹ꎻ퓶뎤싊뗍ꎬ쮵쏷릫쮾튵컱퓶뎤맽싽ꎬ튵컱췘햹쓜솦늻ퟣꎬ쫐뎡잰뺰낵떭ꎬ틲듋쫴폚헽횸뇪ꎬ웤볆쯣릫쪽캪ꎺ?놣럑쫕죫퓶뎤싊?놾쓪놣럑쫕죫퓶뎤쫽ꇂ짏쓪놣럑쫕죫ꇁ100% ꎨꎩ 㐰⸰〥㈰⸰〥〮〰?죋첫욽뮪쳬훐폀퇴낲뚼놣욽낲첩낲뮪낲맢냮냮ⴲ〮〰?퇳솪뫏ⴴ〮〰?ⴶ〮〰?ⴸ〮〰?춼 죧춼쯹쪾ꎬ죋놣ꆢ첫욽퇳ꆢ욽낲ꆢ뮪첩놣럑쫕죫퓶뎤싊뚼퓚20%틔짏ꎬ놣돖쇋솼뫃뗄퓶뎤쫆춷ꎬ뛸쟒탨튪힢틢뗄쫇ꎬ헢벸볒닆닺놣쿕릫쮾퓚잰컄뗄뎥뢶쓜솦뫍룷쿮닆컱횸뇪훐뻹뇭쿖솼뫃ꎬ늢쎻폐틲캪튵컱뗄퓶뎤펰쿬릫쮾뗄뎥뢶톹솦ꆣ뛸쳬낲ꆢ폀낲ꆢ퇴맢ꆢ낲냮쯄볒릫쮾놣럑쫕죫돊쿖뢶퓶뎤ꎬ쮵쏷릫쮾튵컱퓶뎤뷏싽ꎬ튵컱췘햹쓜솦늻ퟣꎬ쫐뎡잰뺰떭ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ뺻샻죳퓶뎤싊 뺻샻죳퓶뎤싊쫇횸놣쿕릫쮾떱웚뺻샻죳뛮폫짏웚뺻샻죳뛮뗄닮뛮폫믹웚뺻샻죳뗄뇈싊ꎬ쫇릫쮾뺭펪킧틦ힴ뿶뗄쳥쿖ꆣ뺻샻죳쓜럱놣돖컈뚨뗄퓶뎤ꎬ뻶뚨쇋웳튵뗄돉뎤탔폫랢햹탔ꆣ뺻샻죳퓶뎤싊풽룟ꎬ쮵쏷놣쿕릫쮾퓚떱웚뺭펪킧틦ힴ뿶풽뫃ꎬ뺺헹폅쫆룼볓춻돶ꎬ뷸튻늽뗄쫐뎡삩헅튲룼폐놣횤ꎻ뺻샻죳퓶뎤싊풽뗍짵훁돶쿖뢺횵ꎬ릫쮾퓲뫜쓑퓚탐튵훐뻟놸뫋탄뺺헹솦ꎬ룼첸늻짏쫐뎡뗄삩헅폫튵컱뗄췘햹ꆣ뺻샻죳싊쫇랴펳놣쿕릫쮾쫇럱뻟폐솼뫃돉뎤탔뗄훘튪횸뇪ꎬ쫴 20
쓏뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 폚헽횸뇪ꎬ볆쯣릫쪽죧쿂??††뺻샻죳퓶뎤싊?ꎨ놾쓪뺻샻죳?짏쓪뺻샻죳ꎩꇂ짏쓪뺻샻죳ꇁ100% ꎨꎩ?㠰⸰〥㘰⸰〥㐰⸰〥㈰⸰〥〮〰?죋첫욽뮪쳬훐폀퇴낲뚼ⴲ〮〰?놣욽낲첩낲뮪낲맢냮냮퇳솪ⴴ〮〰?뫏ⴶ〮〰?ⴸ〮〰?춼 죧춼쯹쪾ꎬ ꎨ3ꎩ닺퓶뎤싊 닺퓶뎤싊쫇놣쿕릫쮾놾쓪ퟜ닺퓶뎤뛮춬쓪돵닺ퟜ뛮뗄뇈싊ꎬ랴펳놣쿕릫쮾놾웚닺맦쒣뗄퓶뎤쟩뿶ꆣ릫쮾쯹펵폐뗄닺쫇릫쮾삵틔짺듦폫랢햹뗄컯훊믹뒡ꎬ쫇놣쿕릫쮾쓜릻헽뎣퓋펪뗄잰쳡ꎬ캪놣쿕릫쮾뎥뮹햮컱ꎬ횧뢶샭엢뷰뗄쳡릩뇘튪뗄놣헏ꆣ닺퓶뎤싊횸뇪쫇릫쮾랢햹ힴ뿶뗄랴펳ꎬ랢햹쟩뿶뇈뷏뫃뗄릫쮾ꎬ웤닺튻냣뚼쓜캬돖뷏캪컈뚨뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈ꆣ쯹틔쫴폚헽횸뇪ꎬ닺퓶뎤싊뗄볆쯣릫쪽캪ꎺ?닺퓶뎤싊=ꎨ놾쓪닺ퟜ뛮-짏쓪닺ퟜ뛮ꎩꇂ짏쓪닺ퟜ뛮ꇁ100% ꎨꎩ?21
붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿 ㌰〮〰?㈵〮〰?㈰〮〰?ㄵ〮〰?〮〰?㔰⸰〥〮〰?죋첫욽뮪쳬훐폀퇴낲뚼ⴵ〮〰?놣욽낲첩낲뮪낲맢냮냮퇳솪뫏춼 벼쫵쓜솦럖컶 ꎨ1ꎩ듳벰틔짏톧샺죋풱뇈훘?놾횸뇪춨맽뫢솿놣쿕릫쮾훐듳벰틔짏톧샺죋풱햼풱릤ퟜ쫽뗄뇈훘살랴펳릫쮾뗄벼쫵쓜솦ꎬ룃횸뇪횵풽룟ꎬ쮵쏷릫쮾뗄벼쫵쓜솦풽잿ꎻ랴횮ꎬ벼쫵쓜솦풽죵틲듋쫴폚헽횸뇪ꎬ웤볆쯣릫쪽캪ꎺ? 듳벰틔짏톧샺죋풱뇈훘=듳벰틔짏톧샺죋풱ퟜ쫽ꇂ풱릤ퟜ쫽ꇁ100% ꎨꎩ ꎨ2ꎩ훐룟벶횰돆죋풱뇈훘?룃횸뇪쫇ꆰ듳벰틔짏톧샺죋풱뇈훘ꆱ뗄늹돤ꆣ훐룟벶횰돆죋풱쫇놣쿕릫쮾훐뺭펪맜샭뫍퇐랢탂쿕훖뗄훐볡솦솿ꎬ룃횸뇪랴펳쇋놣쿕릫쮾퇐랢폫맜샭쓜솦뗄잿죵ꎬ횸뇪횵풽룟ꎬ놣쿕릫쮾퇐랢폫맜샭뗄쓜솦풽잿ꎬ쫴폚헽횸뇪ꎬ웤볆쯣릫쪽캪ꎺ? 22
쓏뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 훐룟벶횰돆죋풱뇈훘?훐룟벶횰돆죋풱쫽솿ꇂ풱릤ퟜ쫽ꇁ100% ꎨꎩ ㄲ〮〰?〮〰?㠰⸰〥報㎴ꢼ냒퓉쿑Ꟁ靖?㘰⸰〥풱뇈훘㐰⸰〥報㓖킸?뛖낳웈쯔놱?훘㈰⸰〥〮〰?죋첫욽뮪쳬훐폀퇴낲뚼놣욽낲첩낲뮪낲맢냮냮퇳솪뫏춼 죧춼쯹쪾ꎬ죋놣ꆢ낲냮퓚솽쿮횸뇪훐뻹뇭쿖솼뫃ꎬ횸뇪업쏻뻹퓚잰죽캻ꎬ쮵쏷솽볒릫쮾뇈뷏힢훘죋닅뗄슼폃폫엠퇸ꆣ뚼냮폫뮪첩쯤좻퓚훐룟벶횰돆죋풱뇈훘짏뇭쿖튻냣ꎬ떫쫇웤룟톧샺풱릤뇈훘럇뎣룟ꎬ폈웤쫇뚼냮뗄%ꎬ틔뻸뛔폅쫆업쏻뗚튻ꎬ쯦ퟅ쪱볤뗄췆틆ꎬ헢킩룟톧샺죋닅튲믡뗃떽룼뛠뗄뛍솶폫랢햹ꎬ돉캪룷ퟔ쇬폲뗄뺫펢ꎬ튲믡뷸튻늽쳡룟훐룟벶횰돆죋풱뇈훘ꎬ랢햹잱솦뫜듳ꆣ룟쯘훊뗄풱릤뛓컩ꎬ쫇놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪ꆢ퇐랢뫍맜샭뗄훐볡솦솿ꎬ퓚릫쮾돖탸탔뗄랢햹훐믡웰떽ퟮ캪맘볼뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ 쫐뎡쓜솦럖컶 쫐뎡쓜솦쫇릫쮾뺭볃맦쒣뫍뺭펪쓜솦뗄뫋탄ꎬ놣쿕릫쮾캨폐춨맽쳡룟쫐뎡쓜솦ꎬ닅쓜붫웤놾뇤캪쫐뎡ꎬ쪵쿖닺욷믲럾컱뗄볛횵ꎬ쳥쿖돶뺭펪쓜솦뗄잿죵ꆣ?ꎨ1ꎩ훷펪튵컱쫐뎡햼폐싊?룃횸뇪랴펳쇋릫쮾퓚헻룶탐튵훐쯹햼폐뗄쫐뎡쿠뛔뗘캻ꎬ횸뇪횵풽룟ꎬ놣쿕릫쮾뗄쫐뎡쿠뛔뗘캻풽룟ꎬ쫴폚헽횸뇪ꎬ웤볆쯣릫쪽캪ꎺ?훷펪튵컱쫐뎡햼폐싊?훷펪튵컱놣럑쫕죫ꇂ탐튵놣럑쫕죫ퟜ뛮ꇁ100% ꎨꎩ ꎨ2ꎩ쫐뎡럝뛮퓶뎤싊?룃횸뇪랴펳뗄쫇놣쿕릫쮾쫐뎡햼폐싊퓶뎤쟩뿶ꎬ횸뇪횵풽룟ꎬ놣쿕릫쮾쫐뎡뗘캻퓶잿뗄쟷쫆풽듳ꎬ쫴폚헽횸뇪ꎬ웤볆쯣릫쪽캪ꎺ?쫐뎡럝뛮퓶뎤싊?ꎨ떱웚쫐뎡햼폐싊?짏쓪쫐뎡햼폐싊ꎩꇂ짏쓪쫐뎡햼폐싊ꇁ100% ꎨꎩ 23
붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿 㘰⸰〥㐰⸰〥㈰⸰〥〮〰?報㗖뗎킳ꇕ볓?싊ⴲ〮〰?죋놣첫욽퇳욽낲뮪첩쳬낲훐뮪솪뫏폀낲퇴맢낲냮뚼냮報㛊킳ꆷ?꓂?ⴴ〮〰?ⴶ〮〰?ⴸ〮〰?춼 릹붨놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛횸뇪쳥쾵뗄믹놾풭퓲 놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛쫇튻룶평뛠훖쿠뮥솪쾵ꆢ쿠뮥훆풼뗄튪쯘릹돉뗄폐믺헻쳥ꎬ쫇튻룶뢴퓓뗄쾵춳ꆣ움볛횸뇪쳥쾵뗄붨솢ꎬ뷶뷶틀뾿욬쏦뗄떥튻뗄벸룶횸뇪쫇풶풶늻쓜듯떽튪쟳뗄ꎬ쯹틔헢룶쾵춳뗄붨솢ꎬ뇘탫폫움볛쒿뇪쿠럻ꎬ놣횤움볛쳥쾵뗄뿆톧탔ꆢ맘볼탔ꆢ닣듎탔폫뿉닙ퟷ탔ꎬ헢튲쫇뫏샭폐킧뗄뺭펪벨킧움볛횸뇪쳥쾵붨솢뗄믹놾풭퓲ꎺ?ꎨ1ꎩ뿆톧탔풭퓲?횸뇪쳥쾵붨솢뗄뿆톧탔풭퓲ꎬ튪쟳쯹붨솢뗄쳥쾵뇘탫뿍맛ꆢힼ좷뗘랴펳놣쿕릫쮾뗄뺭펪벨킧쪵볊ힴ뿶ꎬ좷놣쯹뗃움볛뷡맻뗄뿆톧탔틔벰뛔릫쮾랢햹뗄쪵볊뷨본ퟷ폃ꆣ쯹틔ꎬ쫗쿈ꎬ퓚뷸탐쳥쾵릹붨쪱ꎬ뇘탫튪돤럖뷨본맺쓚췢쿖폐뗄퇐뺿돉맻ꎬ틔릫죏뗄쿠뛔돉쫬뗄움볛횸뇪쳥쾵캪믹뒡ꎬ좻뫳뷡뫏붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾웰늽췭ꆢ맦쒣킡ꆢ뺺헹솦놡죵뗄쪵볊쟩뿶ꎬ뛔횸뇪쳥쾵뷸탐뷸튻늽뗄췪짆ꎻ웤듎ꎬ쳥쾵훐쯹톡좡뗄움볛횸뇪ꎬ뇘탫틔뺭펪벨킧움볛뗄믹놾샭싛캪횸떼ꎬ놣횤횸뇪짨볆뗄맦랶탔폫뫏샭탔ꆣ? 24
쓏뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 ꎨ2ꎩ맘볼탔풭퓲?횸뇪쳥쾵붨솢뗄맘볼탔풭퓲ꎬ튪쟳쯹톡좡뗄움볛횸뇪뇘탫뻟폐듺뇭탔ꎬ쓜릻랴펳펰쿬놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뗄맘볼탔틲쯘ꆣ듓샭싛뗄뷇뛈붲ꎬ펰쿬놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뗄틲쯘뫜뛠ꎬ쿠펦뗄움볛횸뇪짦벰쏦튲뫜맣ꎬ톡좡뗄횸뇪풽뛠ꎬ몭룇쏦풽맣ꎬ움볛뷡맻튲믡쿠펦뗄룼볓좫쏦ꆣ떫쫇쪵볊짏ꎬ횸뇪맽뛠ꎬ믡퇏훘펰쿬움볛쒿뇪뗄쏷좷탔폫움볛뷡맻뗄닣듎탔벰헫뛔탔ꎬ튲듳듳퓶볓쇋움볛릤ퟷ뗄쪵볊닙ퟷ탔폫릤ퟷ솿ꆣ쯹틔ꎬ움볛횸뇪뗄톡좡뇘탫퓚샭싛폫쪵볊뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ냑컕펰쿬놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뗄맘볼탔틲쯘ꎬ쪹횸뇪쳥쾵룼뻟폐헫뛔탔뫍듺뇭탔ꆣ?ꎨ3ꎩ닣듎탔풭퓲?횸뇪쳥쾵붨솢뗄닣듎탔풭퓲ꎬ튪쟳톡좡뗄움볛횸뇪뇘탫쳥쿖닣듎탔ꆣ틲캪펰쿬놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뗄룷틲쯘놾짭뻟폐닣듎탔ꎬ늻퓚춬튻닣듎짏뗄틲쯘ꎨ죧캻폚뇭쏦닣뗄펯샻쓜솦뫍뎥뢶쓜솦ꎬ캻폚훐볤닣뗄릫쮾쫐뎡쓜솦ꎬ캻폚뫋탄닣뗄릫쮾벼쫵뒴탂쓜솦뗈ꎩ뛔웤뺭펪벨킧뗄펰쿬ퟷ폃튲듦퓚닮틬ꆣ쯹틔ꎬ퓚놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛횸뇪쳥쾵뗄붨솢맽돌훐ꎬ펦룃ퟱ톭닣듎탔풭퓲ꎬ뷡뫏늻춬틲쯘뗄펰쿬돌뛈뗄닮틬ꎬ캪웤럖엤뫏샭뗄좨훘ꎬ내닣듎뷸탐움볛ꎬ쳥쿖웤뛔놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뗄쪵볊펰쿬ꎬ쪹움볛횸뇪쳥쾵뿍맛ꆢ헦쪵ꆣ?ꎨ4ꎩ뿉닙ퟷ탔풭퓲?횸뇪쳥쾵붨솢뿉닙ퟷ탔풭퓲ꎬ튪쟳쯹톡좡뗄횸뇪ퟔ짭뻟폐뿉뛈솿탔ꆢ뿉뇈탔ꆢ쿠맘쫽뻝탅쾢쇏뿉믱탔ꆣ틲캪놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛횸뇪쳥쾵뗄붨솢쫇튻룶뢴퓓뛸폖쾵춳뗄맽돌ꎬ웤훐냼몬뗄움볛횸뇪뇈뷏뛠ꎬ캪쇋뷚풼쪱볤ꎬ뿘훆릤ퟷ솿ꎬ놾ퟅ볲쏷ꆢ좫쏦ꆢ룟킧ꆢힼ좷뗘랴펳놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧쪵볊쟩뿶뗄풭퓲ꎬ튪쪹움볛횸뇪쳥쾵뺡뿉쓜뗘볲뮯ꎬ늢뺡솿톡좡쿠뛔횸뇪릹붨움볛쳥쾵ꎬ쪹룷횸뇪볤뛈솿뇪ힼ폫볆럖랽램튻훂쟒뻟폐뿉뇈탔ꎬ쳡룟뛔횸뇪볆럖뷡맻뷸탐럖컶움볛뗄쪵볊닙ퟷ탔ꆣ? 붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛횸뇪쳥쾵뗄붨솢 놣쿕튵쫇튻훖쳘쫢뗄탐튵ꎬ쯼붫캴살뿉쓜랢짺뗄럧쿕캪뺭펪뛔쿳ꎬ춨맽뛔럧쿕뗄맜샭폫뿘훆살믱좡샻죳ꆣ쯹틔놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛횸뇪뗄톡좡뇘탫럻뫏룃탐튵ퟔ짭뛀쳘뗄뺭펪쳘뗣ꎬ놾ퟅ좫쏦ꆢ뿍맛ꆢ뿉뇈ꆢ룟킧ꆢ뿉닙ퟷ뗄풭퓲ꎬ돤럖쳥쿖놣쿕릫쮾쪵볊뺭펪ힴ뿶ꆣ?컒맺ꆶ놣쿕릫쮾닆컱훆뛈ꆷꆢꆶ놣쿕릫쮾믡볆훆뛈ꆷ틔벰ꆶ놣쿕릫쮾뎥뢶쓜솦뛮뛈벰볠맜횸뇪맜샭맦뚨ꆷ훐쯹짦벰떽뗄놣쿕릫쮾닆컱횸뇪냼삨닺뢺햮싊ꆢ쇷뚯뇈싊ꆢ만뚨닺뇈싊ꆢ춶쫕틦싊ꆢ럑폃싊ꆢ엢뢶싊ꆢ췋놣싊ꆢ샻죳싊뗈뗈ꎬ붫웤뷡뫏잰컄놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛횸뇪쳥쾵붨솢뗄랽램뫍펦ퟱ톭뗄믹놾풭퓲ꎬ좫쏦뾼싇쿠맘쫽뻝뗄믱뗃쟩뿶뫍붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕튵랢햹쿖ힴꎬ듓펯샻쓜솦ꆢ뎥뢶쓜솦ꆢ펪퓋쓜솦ꆢ돉뎤쓜솦ꆢ벼쫵쓜솦뫍쫐뎡쓜솦뗈쇹룶랽쏦ퟅ쫖ꎬ릲톡퓱16룶뻟폐듺뇭탔뗄횸뇪살릹붨쳥쾵ꎨ뻟쳥볻뇭ꎩꎬ톡퓱뗄틀뻝훷튪폐죧쿂쯄룶랽쏦ꆣ?25
붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿 ꎨ1ꎩ뺭펪벨킧뗄닆컱움볛?뺭펪벨킧뗄닆컱움볛랽쏦웰늽뷏퓧ꎬ쒿잰틑쿠뛔돉쫬ꎬ뛔폚뺭펪벨킧뗄닆컱움볛훷튪냼삨펯샻쓜솦ꆢ뎥뢶쓜솦ꆢ펪퓋쓜솦ꆢ돉뎤쓜솦ꎬ헢킩랽쏦쫇웳튵돉뎤뗄ퟮ믹놾뗄횧독ꆣ놾퇐뺿틔놣쿕릫쮾뒫춳뺭펪벨킧움볛훐쯹톡좡뗄닆컱횸뇪캪믹뒡ꎬ뷡뫏붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾쪵볊쟩뿶ꎬퟮ훕톡좡쇋쫊뫏뗄닆컱움볛횸뇪ꎬ솦쟳붨솢뗄닆컱횸뇪쳥쾵쓜좫쏦뫢솿붭쯕쪡닺쿕릫쮾릫쮾뗄닆컱ힴ뿶ꆣ?ꎨ2ꎩ붫닆컱움볛폫럇닆컱움볛쿠뷡뫏?닆컱움볛퓚웳튵뺭펪벨킧움볛맽돌훐ꎬ뺭뎣횻힢훘뇭쏦뗄튵벨쫽뻝ꎬ뛔맘뫵릫쮾쓜럱뎤웚돖탸컈뚨랢햹뗄쿠맘틲쯘훘쫓늻ퟣꎬ횻쫇릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뗄늿럖쳥쿖ꎬ뛸뒴탂쓜솦ꆢ쫐뎡쓜솦뗈럇닆컱랽쏦뗈닣쏦쳥쿖쇋릫쮾뗄랢햹잱솦ꎬ쫇뻶뚨뫋탄뺺헹솦뗄맘볼틲쯘ꎬ쫇웳튵맜샭뺭펪쳥쾵뗄쓚몭뇭쿖ꆣ틲듋ꎬ뺭펪벨킧움볛볈튪힢훘닆컱움볛ꎬ폖늻쓜뫶쫓럇닆컱움볛ꎬ횻폐냑솽랽쏦뷡뫏퓚튻웰ꎬ닅쓜좫쏦ꆢ헽좷뗘움볛놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뗄룷룶랽쏦ꆣ놾횸뇪쳥쾵틔뺭펪벨킧움볛뷡릹쓚늿맘쾵캪믹뒡ꎬ듓랢햹잱솦ꆢ쫐뎡솽랽쏦톡퓱벼쫵쓜솦ꆢ쫐뎡쓜솦뗈럇닆컱횸뇪ꎬ폫닆컱횸뇪뷡뫏퓚튻웰ꎬ쪹벨킧뗄움볛룼뿍맛ꆢퟛ뫏ꆢ뫏샭ꆣ?ꎨ3ꎩ훘쫓탎돉뎤웚뺺헹폅쫆뗄맘볼탔틲쯘?뛔폚럇닆컱랽쏦뗄톡퓱ꎬ돽쇋튪놣횤뷏뫃뗘뛔닆컱랽쏦뷸탐늹돤ꎬ룼훘튪뗄퓲쫇튪틀뻝놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뗄쳘뗣ꎬ훘쫓릫쮾믱돉릦뗄맘볼탔틲쯘ꆣ21쫀볍ꎬ웳튵볤뗄뺺헹뇈틔췹죎뫎쪱뫲룼벤쇒ꎬ벼쫵쓜솦ꆢ쫐뎡쓜솦뗈쓚췢틲쯘틑뺭훰붥돉캪탎돉뺺헹폅쫆뗄맘볼틲쯘ꆣ헢쫇틲캪ꎺ웤튻ꎬ벼쫵쓜솦쫇놣쿕릫쮾쫊펦쫐뎡ꎬ뒴퓬쫊펦맋뿍탨쟳뗄탂닺욷늢틔뫏쫊돉놾뫍훊솿짺닺돶살뗄쓜솦ꎬ쫇웳튵짺듦뫍랢햹뗄맘볼틲쯘ꎻ웤뛾ꎬ릫쮾뗄튵벨뗄쪵쿖뇘탫춨맽햼쇬쫐뎡닅쓜쪵쿖ꎬ닺욷늻쓜쫐뎡뮯ꎬ뻍컞램쪵쿖닺욷뗄볛횵ꎬ쫐뎡쓜솦쫇놣쿕릫쮾쪵쿖볛횵뗄훘튪춾뺶ꆣ뿉볻ꎬ짏쫶틲쯘뛔폚랢햹훐뗄붭쯕쪡맣듳닺쿕릫쮾폈쿔훘튪ꎬ놾퇐뺿붫짏쫶웳튵돉릦맘볼탔틲쯘쓉죫움볛횸뇪쳥쾵훐살ꎬ붫뺭펪벨킧움볛뗄쫓뷇쿲폐샻폚탎돉놣쿕릫쮾뎤웚뺺헹폅쫆뗄랽쏦살ꆣ?ꎨ4ꎩ맘힢럇닆컱횸뇪뗄뿉뛈솿탔폫뿉뇈뷏탔?본폚쿖폐퇐뺿퓚뺭펪벨킧움볛훐뛔럇닆컱랽쏦뗄럖컶룼뛠뗘닉폃뚨탔횸뇪ꎬ쯹뗃움볛뷡맻훷튪쫜떽볒틢볻뗈훷맛틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꆣ캪쇋쪹퇐뺿뷡맻룼볓뿆톧ꆢ뫏샭ꎬ룼뻟폐뿍맛쮵럾솦ꎬ뛔쯹톡좡뗄럇닆컱횸뇪뷸탐쇋솿뮯뒦샭ꎬ쪹럇닆컱횸뇪쓜릻폫닆컱탔횸뇪릲춬뷸탐뛈솿뫍뇈뷏ꎬ듓뛸퓶잿쇋움볛뗄뿍맛탔폫뿉닙ퟷ탔ꆣ???? 26
쓏뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 ?뇭 킡뷡 ퟛ짏쯹쫶ꎬ믹폚릹붨놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛횸뇪쳥쾵뗄쯄룶풭퓲ꎬ늢뷨본맺쓚췢뗄퇐뺿돉맻ꎬ럖컶펰쿬놣쿕릫쮾탎돉뺺헹폅쫆뗄맘볼튪쯘ꎬ훘뗣톡좡6룶랽쏦ꎬ릲16룶횸뇪붨솢쇋놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛횸뇪쳥쾵ꆣ룃횸뇪쳥쾵돽쇋톡좡쫊뫏놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛뗄닆컱횸뇪ꎬ뮹춨맽틽죫벼쫵쓜솦ꆢ쫐뎡쓜솦뗈폐샻폚놣쿕릫쮾탎돉뎤웚뺺헹폅쫆뗄럇닆컱횸뇪ꎬ폐킧뗘쏖늹쇋떥튻닆컱횸뇪뗄좱쿝ꎬퟶ떽쇋좫쏦ꆢ뿍맛뗘뫢솿놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧ꆣ?27
붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿 뗚쯄헂 놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛볆럖쒣탍 붨솢쇋놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛횸뇪쳥쾵횮뫳ꎬ캪폐킧뗘랴펳횸뇪쳥쾵쯹냼몬뗄탅쾢ꎬ탨튪좷솢튻쳗볈퓚쪵볹짏탐뗃춨ꆢ폖쓜퓚샭싛짏뗃떽싛횤뗄뿆톧움볛랽램뫍볆럖쒣탍ꎬ틔뇣뛔놣쿕릫쮾뗄뺭펪벨킧ퟶ돶ퟛ뫏움볛ꎬ헢맘쾵떽ퟮ훕움볛뷡맻뗄뿍맛ꆢힼ좷ꆣ놾헂쫗쿈쿪쾸닻쫶쒿잰움볛뺭펪벨킧뗄볆럖랽램ꎬ늢쳖싛웤늻ퟣꎬ뷸뛸쳡돶쫊뫏놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛뗄믹놾랽램늢붨솢쿠펦뗄움볛볆럖쒣탍ꆣ 움볛볆럖랽램룅쫶 죧뫎뛔횸뇪뫏샭뗄뷸탐좨훘럖엤ꎬ튻횱쫇놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧ퟛ뫏움볛볆럖랽램ퟮ뫋탄뗄컊쳢ꆣ뛔폚횸뇪좨훘뗄좷뚨랽램ꎬ훷튪럖캪훷맛볆럖램뫍뿍맛볆럖랽램솽샠ꆣ훷맛볆럖램훷튪틔뗂뛻럆ꎨDelphiꎩ램ꆢ닣듎럖컶램ꆢ쒣뫽ퟛ뫏움에램캪듺뇭ꎬ헢킩랽램훷튪춨맽랢럅컊뻭ꎬ욾뷨볒뺭퇩폫훷맛틢볻뛔컊뻭뗄랴삡뷡맻뷸탐좨훘럖엤ꎬ늢뷸튻늽뷸탐ퟛ뫏움볛ꆣ뿍맛볆럖램훷튪냼삨ퟛ뫏횸쫽램ꆢ릦킧움럖램ꆢTOPSIS램ꆢ훷돉럖럖컶램ꆢ틲ퟓ럖컶램ꆢ믒즫맘솪뛈럖컶램뗈ꎬ헢킩랽램훐뛔좨훘뗄좷뚨훷튪쫇틔횸뇪볤뗄쓚퓚솪쾵벰횸뇪횵횮볤뗄뇤틬돌뛈캪틀뻝ꆣ 훷맛움볛볆럖랽램 ꎨ1ꎩ뗂뛻럆램 뗂뛻럆램쫇평쏀맺뗀룱삭쮹릫쮾폫삼뗂릫쮾퓚20쫀볍60쓪듺릲춬퇐뺿쳡돶뗄ꆣ룃랽램닉폃쓤쏻뗄탎쪽ꎬ쿲볒랢럅컊뻭ꎬ춨맽컊뻭뗄랴삡쫕벯볒뾴램ꎬ늢뛔웤뷸탐좫쏦뗄ퟛ뫏맩쓉ꎬ뗃돶ퟮ뫳뗄춳튻뷡싛ꎬ뗂뛻럆램튲틲듋놻돆캪볒틢볻램ꆣ뗂뛻럆램훷튪틀뻝볒ퟔ짭뗄뺭퇩틔벰뛔횸뇪뗄에뛏럖컶살쳡솶횸뇪뛔움볛쒿뇪뗄훘튪탔ꎬ듓뛸뷸튻늽좷뚨횸뇪퓚움볛쳥쾵훐뗄좨훘ꎬ쯼춨뎣닉폃뛔볒뷸탐쓤쏻뗷닩컊뻭뗄랽쪽ꎬ붫랴삡뗄컊뻭뷸탐ퟜ뷡맩쓉ꎬ늢퓙듎헷쟳볒뛔짏듎움볛춳볆뷡맻뗄틢볻ꎬ죧듋뛠싖랴뢴ꎬퟮ훕쪵쿖뛔횸뇪뗄뢳좨ꆣ룃랽램좷뚨좨훘뗄틀뻝좫늿살ퟔ폚볒뗄훷맛틢볻뫍뺭퇩ꎬ떼훂움볛맽돌폫뷡맻뇘좻듦퓚뫜듳돌뛈뗄훷맛쯦틢탔ꆣ벴뇣움볛볒쫇춬튻룶죋ꎬ뛔폚쿠춬뗄움볛뛔쿳ꎬ퓚늻춬뗄랢햹쪱볤뛎믲쫇늻춬뗄랢햹뮷뺳쿂ꎬ쯹ퟶ돶뗄움볛에뛏튲늻뺡쿠춬ꆣ嬳?? ꎨ2ꎩ닣듎럖컶램 닣듎럖컶램ꎨAnalytic Hierarchy Process볲돆AHPꎩ쫇붫폫뻶닟쿠맘뗄죴룉풪쯘럖뷢돉쒿뇪ꆢힼ퓲ꆢ랽낸뗈닣듎ꎬ늢틔듋캪믹뒡뷸탐뚨탔뫍뚨솿럖컶뗄뻶닟랽램ꆣ룃랽램ퟮ퓧평쏀맺퓋돯톧볒욥듄놤듳톧뷌쫚죸뗙폚놾쫀볍70쓪듺돵ꎬ퓚캪쏀맺맺럀늿퇐뺿ꆰ룹뻝룷룶릤튵늿쏅뛔맺볒뢣 28
쓏뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 샻뗄릱쿗듳킡뛸뷸탐뗧솦럖엤ꆱ뗄뿎쳢쪱ꎬ펦폃췸싧쾵춳샭싛뫍뛠쒿뇪ퟛ뫏움볛랽램ꎬ쳡돶뗄튻훖닣듎좨훘뻶닟럖컶랽램ꆣ쯼쫗쿈붫탨튪퇐뺿뗄뢴퓓컊쳢럖뷢캪늻춬뗄ퟩ돉풪쯘ꎻ좻뫳헫뛔ퟜ쒿뇪내풪쯘볤쿠뮥맘쾵펰쿬뮮럖캪폐탲뗄닣듎ꎬ믦훆닣듎럖컶춼ꎬ춨맽룷닣듎횮볤틲쯘뗄솽솽뇈뷏ꎬ살좷뚨쒳튻닣듎훐뗄풪쯘쿠뛔폚짏튻닣듎쒳틲쯘뗄쿠뛔훘튪탔ꎬ뷸뛸릹붨에뛏뻘헳ꎬퟮ뫳ꎬퟛ뫏볒에뛏틢볻ퟮ훕뻶뚨룷틲쯘쿠뛔훘튪탔뗄ퟜ뗄쮳탲ꆣ?닣듎럖컶램훷튪틔훷맛쳵볾틲쯘캪믹뒡ꎬ쎻폐뛔돵쪼쫽뻝뷸탐죎뫎뮻뒦샭ꎬ쯹뗃움볛뷡맻뻟놸튻뚨뗄헦쪵탔폫뫏샭탔ꎬ늢쟒쓜쳡룟뛔뚨탔폫뚨솿탅쾢ퟛ뫏웰살뷸탐럖컶뗄뿉닙ퟷ탔ꎬ폈웤쫊폃폚듦퓚뷏뛠컞램뚨솿뮯횸뇪뗄컊쳢ꆣ떫쫇헢훖랽램튲듦퓚뇈뷏듳뗄뻖쿞탔ꎬ쫗쿈닣듎뷡릹뗄릹붨맽돌뷏캪랱쯶ꎬ쳘뇰쫇퓚틲쯘뷏뛠쪱ꎬ뛔캻폚룷룶룷닣짏뗄틲쯘뷸탐솽솽뇈뷏쓑뛈뫜듳ꎬ볆쯣맽돌뢴퓓ꎬ뺭뎣떼훂에뛏뻘헳늻튻훂ꎻ웤듎퓚좷뚨좨훘쪱ꎬ뮹쫇뇜쏢늻쇋훷맛쯦틢탔뗄듦퓚ꆣ ꎨ3ꎩ쒣뫽ퟛ뫏움에램 쒣뫽ퟛ뫏움에램쫇평쏀맺뿘훆싛볒닩뗂Zadeh폫1965쓪쳡돶뗄嬳??ꎬ쯼펦폃쒣뫽맘쾵뫏돉뗄풭샭ꎬ헫뛔쿖쪵훐듳솿뗄뺭볃쿖쿳듦퓚쒣뫽탔뗄쟩뿶ꎬ룹뻝뛠룶움볛틲쯘뛔움에쫂컯솥쫴뗈벶ힴ뿶뷸탐ퟛ뫏움볛뗄튻훖랽램ꆣ쯼쫗쿈좷뚨놻움에뛔쿳뗄틲쯘횸뇪벯U뫍움볛벯Vꎬ웤훐움볛벯뫏튻냣뿉럖캪폅ꆢ솼ꆢ훐뗈ꆢ뷏닮ꆢ닮컥룶뗈벶ꎻ퓙럖뇰좷뚨룷룶틲쯘뗄좨훘벰쯼쏇뗄솥쫴뛈쿲솿ꎬ믱뗃쒣뫽움에뻘헳ꎻퟮ뫳냑쒣뫽움에뻘헳폫틲쯘뗄좨훘벯뷸탐쒣뫽퓋쯣늢뷸탐맩튻뮯ꎬ뗃떽쒣뫽움볛ퟛ뫏뷡맻ꆣ 룃랽램춨맽뺫좷뗄쫽톧랽램뒦샭쒣뫽뗄움에뛔쿳ꎬ쓜뛔퓌님탅쾢돊쿖쒣뫽탔뗄쇏ퟶ돶뇈뷏뿆톧ꆢ뫏샭ꆢ쳹뷼쪵볊뗄솿뮯움볛ꆣ떫룃랽램퓚횸뇪좨훘좷뚨랽쏦죔듦퓚뷏잿뗄훷맛탔ꎬ늢쟒훷튪틀뾿솥쫴몯쫽뷸탐볆쯣ꎬ맽돌뢴퓓ꎬ뛸쟒솥쫴몯쫽쓑폚좷뚨ꎬ헢킩틲쯘뚼폐뿉쓜떼훂움에쪧냜ꆣ듋췢ꎬ룃랽램뮹쫇늻쓜뷢뻶움볛횸뇪볤틲캪쿠맘맘쾵퓬돉움볛탅쾢훘뢴뗄컊쳢ꆣ 뿍맛움볛볆럖랽램 ꎨ1ꎩퟛ뫏횸쫽램 ퟛ뫏횸쫽램쫇튻훖틔횸뇪뗄뇪ힼ횵캪믹ힼꎬ쟳쎿쿮횸뇪뗄헛쯣횸쫽뫳퓙믣ퟜ돉ퟛ뫏횸쫽뗄움볛랽램嬳??ꆣ쯼붫떥쿮횸뇪횵럖뇰폫좷뚨뗄뇪ힼ횵뷸탐뇈뷏ꎬ쟳뗃떥쿮움볛횸쫽ꎬ퓙뛔떥쿮움볛횸쫽뷸탐볓좨쯣쫵욽뻹벴뗃ퟛ뫏횸쫽ꆣ움볛횸쫽췪좫랴펳쇋룷움볛횸뇪쪵볊쫽횵뗄듳킡ꎬ돤럖쳥쿖룷움볛떥캻횮볤뗄닮뻠ꎬퟛ뫏횸쫽횵풽듳ꎬ뛔쿳뗄ퟛ뫏킧틦풽룟ꆣ 룃랽램풭샭볲떥ꎬ컞탨뢴퓓뗄퓋쯣ꎬ춨맽뛔풭쪼쫽뻝뷸탐쿠뛔뮯뒦샭ꎬ쿻돽쇋늻춬횸뇪솿룙뗄펰쿬ꎬ뿉폃폚늻춬럖늼샠탍쫽뻝볤뗄ퟛ뫏움볛ꆣퟛ뫏횸쫽램뗄훷튪컊쳢쫇ꎺ쫗쿈ꎬ룃랽램뷶쫇볲떥뗘뛔떥쿮움볛횸쫽볓ퟜ욽뻹쟳뗃ퟛ뫏횸쫽ꎬ늻춬횸뇪뗄훘튪돌뛈캴쓜뗃떽쟸럖ꎻ웤듎ꎬ29
붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿 평폚룷횸뇪횵퓚쫽횵럖늼쟸볤짏뗄닮틬ꎬ볆쯣돶뗄떥쿮움볛횸쫽횮볤좱랦뿉뇈탔ꎻퟮ뫳ꎬ뛔폚뇪ힼ횵뗄좷뚨쎻폐춳튻뗄뇪ힼꎬ좷뚨웰살뇈뷏삧쓑ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ릦킧움럖램 릦킧움럖램쫇룹뻝릦킧쾵쫽움뚨룷쿮횸뇪뗄볆럖횵뗄랽램ꆣ쯼붨솢퓚뛠쒿뇪맦뮮뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ쫗쿈좷뚨룷샠횸뇪뗄싺틢횵폫늻퓊탭횵ꎬ좻뫳틔싺틢횵캪짏쿞ꎬ틔늻퓊탭횵캪쿂쿞ꎬ볆쯣룷횸뇪뗄싺틢돌뛈ꎬ늢뮯캪쿠펦뗄움볛럖쫽ꆪꆪ릦킧쾵쫽ꎬ퓙뛔룷횸뇪뗄릦킧쾵쫽뺭볓좨벸뫎욽뻹뗃돶ퟛ뫏움볛럖쫽ꎬ뛔움볛뛔쿳뗄ퟛ뫏ힴ뿶ퟶ돶움맀ꆣퟛ뫏릦킧럖쫽풽듳ꎬ뇭쏷움볛뛔쿳뗄ퟛ뫏ힴ뿶풽병嬳??ꆣ 룃랽램내죋쏇쾰맟뗄냙럖훆움럖랽램ꎬ룸돶냙럖훆뗄ퟛ뫏럖쫽ꎬ몬틢쏷좷ꎬ틗폚샭뷢ꎬ쟒움볛횸뇪뗄톡퓱쎻폐뷏듳뗄쿞훆ꎬ쇩쏴뛈룟ꆣ떫룃랽램뇘탫틔떵듎뇪ힼ횵ퟷ캪움볛닎헕쾵ꎬ뛸쪵볹훐탭뛠횸뇪늢늻듦퓚싺틢횵폫늻퓊탭횵ꎬ틲듋룃랽램뛔폚떵듎뇪ힼ횵뗄좷뚨뇈뷏뢴퓓ꎬ닙ퟷ쓑뛈뷏듳ꆣ ꎨ3ꎩTOPSIS램 TOPSIS램쫇평Hwang뫍Yoon폚1981쓪쳡돶뗄ꎬ쫇폐쿞랽낸뛠쒿뇪뻶닟럖컶훐뎣폃뗄튻훖뿆톧랽램嬳??ꆣ룃랽램쫗쿈듓맩튻뮯뒦샭뗄풭쪼쫽뻝뻘헳훐헒돶폐쿞랽낸훐뗄ퟮ폅쿲솿뫍ퟮ쇓쿲솿ꎬ좻뫳럖뇰볆쯣돶움볛뛔쿳횵폫ퟮ폅쿲솿벰ퟮ쇓쿲솿볤뗄뻠샫ꎬ믱뗃룃움볛뛔쿳폫ퟮ폅쿲솿뗄쿠뛔뷓뷼돌뛈ꎬ틔듋ퟷ캪움볛폅쇓뗄틀뻝ꆣ 룃랽램닙ퟷ볲떥ꎬ뛔쫽뻝컞쳘쫢튪쟳ꎬ쓜돤럖샻폃풭쪼쫽뻝탅쾢ꎬ쓜쿻돽늻춬솿룙듸살뗄펰쿬ꆣ떫룃랽램좷뚨뗄ퟮ폅쿲솿벰ퟮ쇓쿲솿튻냣뚼쫇듓쫽뻝뻘헳훐쳴톡뗄ꎬ횸뇪횵믡쯦ퟅ움에뮷뺳뫍ퟔ짭쳵볾뗄뇤뮯뛸룄뇤ꎬ헢뻍틢캶ퟅ폐뿉쓜떼훂ퟮ폅쿲솿벰ퟮ쇓쿲솿뗄룄뇤ꎬ듓뛸펰쿬횸뇪뗄업탲ꎬ떼훂움에뷡맻늻뻟폐캨튻탔嬳??ꆣ ꎨ4ꎩ훷돉럖럖컶램 룃랽램쫴폚튻훖쫽톧뇤뮻뛠풪춳볆럖컶랽램ꎬ쯼쫗쿈춨맽잡떱뗄쫽톧뇤뮻ꎬ쪹탂닺짺뗄뇤솿ꎨ훷돉럖ꎩ돉캪풭뇤솿뗄쿟탔ퟩ뫏ꎻ좻뫳톡좡짙쫽벸룶퓚ퟜ샫닮탅쾢솿훐뇈샽뷏듳뗄훷돉럖ꎬ늢룹뻝튵횪쪶뫍횸뇪쯹랴펳뗄뛀쳘몬틥뛔쳡좡뗄훷돉럖틲ퟓ룸폨탂뗄쏼쏻ꎬퟮ뫳룹뻝ퟛ뫏톡좡뗄훷돉럖뷸탐움볛嬳??ꆣ 룃랽램뷢뻶쇋쫽뻝횮볤탅쾢훘뢴뗄컊쳢ꎬ춨맽볆쯣훷돉럖ꎬ뿉틔뷸탐볲뮯ꎬ톡좡훷튪틲쯘살뷸탐볆쯣ꆣ떫볆쯣맽돌뇈뷏랱쯶ꎬ쟒뛔퇹놾솿뗄튪쟳뷏듳ꎬ퇹놾뗄듳킡뛔움볛뷡맻펰쿬뷏듳ꎻ춬쪱ꎬ훷돉럖럖컶램볙짨횸뇪횮볤듦퓚쿟탔쿠맘탔ꎬ떫퓚쪵볊펦폃쪱ꎬ횸뇪횮볤뗄맘쾵뿉쓜늢럇캪쿟탔맘쾵ꎬ쟒톡좡훷돉럖늢쏼쏻뗄맽돌훐ꎬ죔퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏쫜움볛헟훷맛탔뗄펰쿬ꆣ ꎨ5ꎩ틲ퟓ럖컶램 틲ퟓ럖컶램쫇뛔훷돉럖럖컶램뗄볌돐뫍랢햹ꎬ튲쫇튻훖훘튪뗄붵캬랽램ꎬ쯼붫뻟폐듭ퟛ뢴 30
쓏뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 퓓맘쾵뗄뇤솿ퟛ뫏캪쫽솿뷏짙뗄벸룶늻뿉닢뗄틲ퟓꎬ틔퓙쿖풭쪼뇤솿뫍틲ퟓ횮볤뗄쿠뮥맘쾵ꎬ춬쪱룹뻝늻춬틲ퟓ뮹뿉틔뛔뇤솿뷸탐럖샠ꆣ쯼춨맽럖컶쫂볾뗄쓚퓚맘쾵ꎬ힡훷튪쎬뛜ꎬ헒돶맘볼틲쯘ꎬ쪹뢴퓓뗄뛠뇤솿컊쳢뇤뗃룼틗폚퇐뺿뫍럖컶嬴??ꆣ 폫훷돉럖럖컶램뗄늻ퟣ쿠쯆ꎬ틲ퟓ럖컶램춬퇹뛔퇹놾죝솿뗄듳킡뫍퇹놾쫽뻝횮볤뗄쿠맘탔뗄튪쟳뇈뷏퇏룱ꆣ ꎨ6ꎩ믒즫맘솪뛈럖컶램 믒즫맘솪뛈럖컶램쫇평뮪훐샭릤듳톧뗄뗋뻛쇺뷌쫚쫗쿈뒴솢뗄ꎬ쫇믒즫쾵춳샭싛훐뗄튻룶훘튪랽램嬴??ꎬ틑뺭퓚뫜뛠쇬폲믱뗃쇋뷏캪맣랺뗄펦폃ꆣ룃랽램헫뛔쫽뻝짙쟒늻쏷좷뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ샻폃볈폐쫽뻝쯹잱퓚뗄탅쾢살냗뮯뒦샭ꎬ듓뛸뷸탐풤닢믲뻶닟ꆣ룃랽램쫗쿈쫇쟳뗃룷룶랽낸폫평ퟮ병횸뇪ퟩ돉뗄샭쿫랽낸뗄맘솪쾵쫽뻘헳ꎬ평맘솪쾵쫽뻘헳뗃떽맘솪뛈ꎬ뛸뫳뛔맘솪뛈룹뻝듳킡뷸탐업탲늢뷸튻늽럖컶ꎬ뗃돶뷡싛ꆣ 믒즫맘솪뛈럖컶램볆쯣늽훨볲떥ꎬ뿉틔쪹폃풭쪼쫽뻝횱뷓볆쯣ꎬ뛔퇹놾죝솿튪쟳뇈뷏뗍ꆣ룃랽램뗄뻖쿞탔퓚폚늻쓜뇜쏢횸뇪볤탅쾢돶쿖훘뢴뗄뇗뛋ꎬ늢쟒춨맽쫽뻝볆쯣뗃돶뗄맘솪뛈뚼캪헽횵ꎬ죧맻쪵볊훐횸뇪횮볤뗄맘쾵돶쿖뢺쿠맘뗄쟩뿶ꎬ뻍뫜뿉쓜뗃돶듭컳뗄뷡싛ꆣ 믹폚횵램뗄놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛볆럖랽램 뺭맽뛔뎣폃움볛볆럖랽램뗄퇐뺿ꎬ뿉틔랢쿖ꎬ훷맛움볛랽램틀삵폚움볛볒뗄훷맛뺭퇩폫욫뫃ꎬ뫜죝틗쫜떽죋캪틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꎬ뿉쓜떼훂쒳킩틲쯘뗄ퟷ폃놻뿤듳믲헟뫶쫓ꎬ틲듋믡펰쿬떽ퟮ훕움볛뷡맻뗄뿍맛탔폫뿆톧탔ꎬ쓑틔죧쪵쳥쿖놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뗄쟩뿶ꆣ 쯹틔ꎬ놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛닉폃뿍맛랽램캪틋ꎬ떫짏컄쳡떽뗄뿍맛움볛볆럖랽램뚼듦퓚튻뚨뗄뻖쿞탔ꎬퟛ뫏횸쫽램뷶뷶쫇볲떥뗄볓ퟜ욽뻹ꎬ뫶쫓횸뇪볤뗄훘튪돌뛈ꎻ릦킧움럖램쪵볹닙ퟷ쓑뛈뷏듳ꎻTOPSIS램뷡릹죝틗쫜움에뮷뺳뫍ퟔ짭쳵볾뗄펰쿬ꎻ훷돉럖럖컶램ꆢ틲ퟓ럖컶램뛔쫽뻝뫍퇹놾뗄튪쟳뇈뷏퇏룱ꎻ뛸믒즫맘솪뛈럖컶램뫶쫓쫽뻝볤뗄뢺쿠맘펰쿬뗈ꎬ쿔좻짏쫶뿍맛랽램뮹늻쓜췪좫싺ퟣ붭쯕쪡놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛뗄탨튪ꆣ 본폚짏쫶풭틲ꎬ캪놣횤움볛뗄뿍맛탔벰움볛랽램뿉닙ퟷ탔ꎬ놾퇐뺿틽죫횵램ퟷ캪움볛볆럖랽램ꎬ룃랽램춨맽뿍맛뢳좨ꎬ놣횤쇋움볛뷡맻뗄뿍맛탔ꎬ쟒움볛랽램볲떥틗뚮ꎬ늻뷶쫊폃폚뚨솿횸뇪뗄움볛ꎬ뮹쓜싺ퟣ뚨탔횸뇪벰뚨솿횸뇪뷡뫏뗄움볛탨튪ꎬ뿉닙ퟷ탔잿ꎬ쫊폃랶캧맣랺ꆣ 횵램뗄믹놾풭샭 ꎨentropyꎩ헢튻쳡램풴ퟔ폚쾣산폯ꎬ쫇뗂맺컯샭톧볒Clausisu퓚쪮뻅쫀볍훐웚쳡돶뗄ꎬ뾪쪼쯼쫇죈솦톧훐뗄쫴쏻듊ꎬ쯼뗄컯샭틢틥쫇쓜솿ꎨ죈솿ꎩ뮻캪릦뗄킧싊ꎬ튲뿉틔쮵쫇쓜솿뛔폚ퟷ릦뗄폐킧샻폃돌뛈ꆣ횵풽듳ꎬ뇭쏷쓜솿샻폃돌뛈풽룟ꎬ쓜릻룼뫃뗘뮻캪릦ꎻ횵풽킡ꎬ뇭쏷쓜솿샻폃돌돌뛈풽뗍ꎬ뮻캪릦쪱쯰뫄풽듳ꆣ 31
붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿 쏀맺쫽톧볒Shannon뫍Wiener퓚1984쓪쫗듎붫헢튻컯샭룅쓮펦폃떽춨탅쇬폲ꎬ살뫢솿탅뫅풴뗄탅뫅늻좷뚨탔뛔헻룶춨탅맽돌뗄펰쿬돌뛈ꆣ횮뫳ꎬ퓚맜샭톧ꆢ릤돌벼쫵뗈뛠룶쇬폲ꎬ횵샭싛뚼뗃떽쇋뷏캪맣랺뗄펦폃ꆣ짏쫀볍90쓪듺ꎬ컒맺톧헟쟱?뮪ꆢ맋닽튫뒴탂뗘붫횵샭싛펦폃퓚웳튵뻶닟럖컶뗄맽돌훐ꎬ뗬뚨쇋컒맺뛔폚샭싛퓚맜샭뿆톧쇬폲펦폃뗄샭싛믹뒡?嬴??ꆣ ꎨ1ꎩ뗄뚨틥 퓚폐n룶움볛횸뇪ꎬm룶놻움볛뛔쿳뗄움맀컊쳢훐ꎬ뺭맽뇪ힼ뮯뒦샭뫳뗄움볛뻘헳캪R=[r]ꎨ웤훐r캪뗚i룶움볛뛔쿳뗄뗚j룶움볛횸뇪ꎬi=1,2,...,m;j=1,2,...,nꎩ ijijm×n퓲뗚j룶움볛횸뇪뗄H뚨틥캪ꎺ jmH=−k∑flnf (j=1,2,L,n) ꎨꎩ jijiji=1쪽훐ꎺrij1f=m k=ij∑lnm riji=1늢볙뚨ꎬ떱f=0쪱ꎬflnf=0ꎬ뿉볻0≤H≤1 ijijijijꎨ2ꎩ좨뗄뚨틥 퓚짏쫶움맀컊쳢훐ꎬ뗚j룶횸뇪뗄좨w뚨틥캪ꎺ j 1 − H w=jjn∑ ꎨꎩ?(1−H)j j= 1 ꎨ3ꎩ좨뗄믹놾탔훊 룹뻝짏쫶뚨틥ꎬ뿉틔뗃돶좨뗄믹놾탔훊ꎺ 32
쓏뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 ꋙ떱놻움볛뛔쿳퓚횸뇪j짏뗄횵췪좫쿠춬쪱ꎬ횵듯떽ퟮ듳횵1ꎬ춬쪱좨듯떽ퟮ킡횵0ꎬ쮵쏷룃횸뇪늻쓜캪뻶닟헟랴펳죎뫎폐샻폃볛횵뗄탅쾢ꎬ뿉틔뾼싇붫룃횸뇪좡쿻ꆣ ꋚ떱룷놻움볛뛔쿳퓚횸뇪j짏뗄횵쿠닮뷏듳쪱ꎬ횵뷏킡ꎬ뛔펦좨퓲뷏듳ꎬ뇭쏷룃횸뇪캪뻶닟헟쳡릩쇋뷏뛠폐샻폃볛횵뗄탅쾢ꎬ늢쮵쏷뛔폚룃쿮횸뇪ꎬ룷놻움볛뛔쿳돊쿖돶뇈뷏쏷쿔뗄닮틬ꎬ뿉쓜돉캪펰쿬움볛뷡맻뗄맘볼틲쯘ꎬ펦룸폨훘뗣맘힢ꆣ ꋛ횸뇪뗄횵풽듳ꎬ쿠펦뗘좨튲풽킡ꎬ쮵쏷룃횸뇪퓚움볛훐풽늻훘튪ꎬ늢쟒싺ퟣꎺ n0≤w≤1뫍∑w=1 jjj=1ꋜퟷ캪좨쫽뗄좨ꎬ쫇룹뻝룸뚨놻움볛뛔쿳벯뫳룷훖움볛횸뇪횵좷뚨뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ룷횸뇪뗄퓚뺺헹틢틥짏뗄쿠뛔벤쇒돌뛈쾵쫽ꎬ뛸럇뻶닟믲움맀컊쳢훐쒳횸뇪뗄쪵볊틢틥횵뗄훘튪탔쾵쫽ꎬ퓚움볛맽돌훐룹뻝쫽뻝볤뗄닮틬돌뛈살좷뚨좨훘ꎬ쫽뻝볤뗄닮뻠풽듳ꎬ쿠펦뗄룃횸뇪좨훘튲풽듳ꎬ펦떱쫜떽뻶닟헟룼뛠뗄맘힢ꆣ ꋝ듓탅쾢뷇뛈살뾼싇ꎬ좨듺뇭룃횸뇪퓚룃컊쳢훐쳡릩폐폃탅쾢솿뗄뛠맑돌뛈ꆣ ꋞ좨뗄듳킡폫놻움볛뛔쿳폐횱뷓맘쾵ꆣ 횵램뗄폅뗣 춨맽짏쫶퇐뺿ꎬ뿉틔뾴돶닉폃횵램뛔놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뷸탐움볛볆럖뗄폅뗣ꎺ ꎨ1ꎩ뿋럾쇋좨훘럖엤뗄훷맛쯦틢탔 퓚움볛횸뇪쳥쾵훐ꎬ횸뇪좨훘뗄좷솢뻶뚨쇋움볛뷡맻뗄뿍맛탔폫릫헽탔ꆣ퓚퓋폃횵램뷸탐움볛볆럖쪱쫇춨맽횸뇪쫽뻝놾짭뗄탅쾢솿살좷뚨좨훘뗄ꎬ늢뺭맽쏜뗄볆쯣늽훨뗃돶ꎬ뻟폐뿆톧캨튻탔ꎬ듓뛸뿋럾쇋훷맛볆럖랽램퓚좷뚨횸뇪좨훘쪱뗄훷맛쯦틢탔ꎬ좷놣뛔룷횸뇪퓚쪵볊쟩뿶훐쿠맘맘쾵랴펳뗄뿍맛탔ꎬ퓶잿ퟮ훕움볛뷡맻뗄뫏샭탔ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ움볛맽돌뿉닙ퟷ탔잿ꆢힼ좷룟킧 닉폃횵램볆럖뗄쯹폐퓋쯣맽돌뚼뿉틔SPSSꆢEXCEL욽첨짏췪돉ꎬ랽램볲뇣ꎬ듳듳쳡룟쇋움볛릤ퟷ뗄킧싊뫍뿉닙ퟷ탔ꎬ붫움볛뷡맻폫쪵볊쟩뿶뗄컳닮뿘훆퓚뷏뗍뗄랶캧쓚ꎬ놣횤쇋움볛뷡맻뗄뿍맛탔폫ힼ좷탔ꆣ뷨훺폚움볛횸뇪횵벰좨훘뗄좷뚨ꎬ랴펳돶룶횸뇪볤뗄닮틬돌뛈ꎬ듓뛸헒돶펰쿬놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뗄훷튪랽쏦ꎬ쪹뗃맣듳놣쿕릫쮾죝틗춨맽움볛랢쿖듦퓚컊쳢ꎬ뛔횢쿂튩ꎬ헒돶쳡룟뺭펪벨킧뗄뛔닟ꆣ 횵램움볛뗄믹놾늽훨 샻폃횵램뷸탐놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛ꎬ뻟쳥늽훨죧쿂ꎺ 33
붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿 ꎨ1ꎩ춨맽닢쯣룷놣쿕릫쮾뗄횸뇪횵ꎬ릹퓬뻶닟뻘헳A=(a)ijm×nꎬ늢샻폃쫊떱뗄랽램냑쯼맦랶뮯캪R=(r)ijm×nꎨ웤훐a캪뗚i볒놣쿕릫쮾뗄뗚j룶움볛횸뇪횵ꎬr캪맦랶뫳뗄뗚iijij볒놣쿕릫쮾뗄뗚j룶움볛횸뇪ꎬi=1,2,...,m;j=1,2,...,nꎩ ꎨ2ꎩ붫R=(r)ijm×n뷸탐맩튻뮯뒦샭ꎬ뗃돶뻘헳F=(f)ꎬ웤훐 ijm×n=rijfmj=1,2,...,nij∑ ꎨꎩriji=1 ꎨ3ꎩ볆쯣뗚j룶움볛횸뇪뗄Hꎬ웤훐 jH1m=−lnjlnm∑ff j=1,2,...,n ꎨꎩ ijiji=1ꎨ4ꎩ볆쯣뗚j룶움볛횸뇪뗄좨훘ꎨ벴캪좨ꎩwꎬ웤훐 j1−Hw=jjnj=1,2,...,n∑(1−Hj) ꎨꎩ j=1ꎨ5ꎩ볆쯣뗚i룶놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧ퟛ뫏뗃럖zꎬ늢뷸탐업탲ꎬ웤훐 jnz=j∑wr i=1,2,...,m;z∈(0,1) ꎨꎩ jijij=1 34
쓏뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 킡뷡 춨맽뛔횵램믹놾룅쓮뫍풭샭뗄닻쫶뫍웤믹놾볆쯣늽훨뗄첽쳖ꎬ쓜릻뾴돶횵램춨맽뛔횸뇪쫽뻝횮볤뗄쪵볊뇤틬돌뛈뗄닢쯣ꎬ뇜쏢쇋훷맛랽램훐듦퓚훷맛쯦틢탔뗄컊쳢ꎬ쓜릻뛔움볛훐뗄횸뇪뫏샭뗘럖엤좨훘ꎬ좷놣좨훘럖엤뗄뿍맛탔폫캨튻탔ꎬ늢쟒볆쯣랽램볲떥맦랶볲떥ꎬ뻟폐뫜잿뗄뿉닙ퟷ탔ꎬ틲듋뿉틔뷏뫃뗘싺ퟣ놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛뗄탨튪ꆣ 35
붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿 뗚컥헂 붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛쪵횤퇐뺿 뗚죽헂뗄퇐뺿ꎬ붨솢쇋놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛횸뇪쳥쾵ꎻ뗚쯄헂뗄퇐뺿ꎬ좷솢쇋횸쒣탍뗄움볛볆럖랽램ꆣ퓚듋믹뒡짏ꎬ놾헂룹뻝틑헆컕뗄쿠맘쇏ꎬ톡좡붭쯕쪡10볒훷튪닆닺놣쿕릫쮾캪퇐뺿뛔쿳ꎬ뷸탐쪵볊퇐뺿ꎬ틔볬퇩움볛랽램뗄뿉탐탔폫헽좷탔ꆣ?쪵횤퇐뺿퇹놾뗄톡퓱 볬퇩움볛랽램쫇럱폐킧ꎬퟮ훘튪뗄잰쳡쫇죧뫎톡좡뫏쫊뗄쪵횤퇐뺿퇹놾ꆣ놾퇐뺿톡퓱붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾훷튪뾼싇틔쿂솽룶틲쯘ꎺ?ꎨ1ꎩ쫽뻝뿉뾿늢뿉믱뗃 퇹놾뗄톡퓱튪놣횤틔뷏뗍뗄탅쾢닉벯돉놾믱뗃릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛랽램퇐뺿훐쯹탨튪뗄룷훖쫽뻝ꎬ늢놣횤쫽뻝뗄훊솿ꎬ쫽뻝뗄뫃뮵붫펰쿬뷡맻뗄헽좷탔ꆣ퇐뺿톡좡뗄붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾믹놾퓚쓏뺩쫐쓚뻹짨솢폐럖늿ꎬ쿠맘쫽뻝폫탅쾢죝틗믱뗃ꎬ늢쟒쯹폐닆컱쿠맘쫽뻝뻹살ퟔ폚ꆶ훐맺놣쿕쓪본ꆷ뫍붭쯕쪡춳볆뻖맙랽췸햾ꎬ쫽뻝풴뻟폐좨췾탔ꆣ??ꎨ2ꎩ쯹톡퇹놾럻뫏춳볆튪쟳?톡좡뗄퇹놾릫쮾뇘탫놣횤ퟣ릻뗄쫽솿ꎬ닅쓜쪹퇹놾죝솿럻뫏춳볆뗄믹놾튪쟳ꎬ좷놣움볛뷡맻뗄뿆톧탔폫좫쏦탔ꎬ쯹뗃뷡싛튲룼뻟폐쮵럾솦ꆣ캪쇋붵뗍평폚퇹놾뗄욫닮뛸펰쿬움볛뷡맻뗄뿉쓜탔ꎬ쪹움볛뷡싛룼뫃뗘랴펳ퟜ쳥뗄쳘헷ꎬ펦룃뺡뿉쓜뗄퓶볓퇹놾죝솿ꆣ놾퇐뺿퓚톡좡퇹놾쪱ꎬ짡좥쇋뺭펪쪱볤뛌ꆢ햼쫐뎡럝뛮벫킡믲쫽뻝쇏늻좫뗄닆닺놣쿕릫쮾ꎬ톡좡뗄10볒붭쯕쪡쓚닆닺놣쿕릫쮾ꎬ틑뺭햼떽좫쪡ퟜ놣럑쫕죫뗄80%틔짏ꎬퟣ틔듺뇭붭쯕쪡닺쿕튵뗄ퟜ쳥쟩뿶ꎬ뻟쳥죧뇭쯹쪾ꆣ?뇭 죋놣?2 첫욽퇳?3 욽낲?4 뮪첩?5 쳬낲?6 훐뮪솪뫏?7 폀낲?8 퇴맢?9 낲냮?10 뚼냮? 36
쓏뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 쫽뻝닉벯폫럖컶 쫽뻝살풴 놾퇐뺿훐놣쿕릫쮾믹놾쫽뻝살풴폚ꎬꆶ훐맺놣쿕쓪본2009ꆷꆢ붭쯕쪡춳볆뻖췸햾ꎨꎩ뫍쓏뺩쫐쒳닆닺놣쿕릫쮾쓚늿쇏ꎬ놣횤쇋쫽뻝쫇헦쪵ꆢힼ좷뫍췪헻뗄ꆣ퓚쫕벯헢10볒닺쿕릫쮾쫽뻝뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ뷨훺SPSSꆢEXCEL죭볾닢쯣놾퇐뺿쯹탨뗄닆컱뫍럇닆컱횸뇪ꆣ뻟쳥뷡맻죧뇭쯹쪾ꆣ?뇭 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 죋놣? 첫욽퇳? 욽낲? 뮪첩? 쳬낲? 훐뮪솪뫏? 폀낲? 퇴맢? 낲냮? 뚼냮? 릫쮾볲돆?X9 X10 X11 X12 X13 X14 X15 X16 죋놣? 첫욽퇳? 욽낲? 뮪첩? 쳬낲? 훐뮪솪뫏? 폀낲? 퇴맢? 낲냮? 뚼냮? ?볙짨룃쫽뻝횸뇪뻘헳캪A=(a)ijm×nꎬ웤훐ꎺa캪뗚i볒놣쿕릫쮾뗚j룶횸뇪횵ꎬiji=1,2,...,m;j=1,2,...,nꆣ 쫽뻝풤뒦샭 쫽뻝풤뒦샭맽돌냼삨횸뇪쟷춬뮯뒦샭뫍횸뇪컞솿룙뮯뒦샭ꆣ?37
붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿 ꎨ1ꎩ횸뇪쟷춬뮯뒦샭?틑붨솢뗄붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛횸뇪쳥쾵훐ꎬ죧돐놣샻죳싊ꆢ뺻샻죳싊ꆢ쫐뎡럝뛮퓶뎤싊뗈횸뇪ꎬ횸뇪횵풽듳ꎬ풽폐샻폚릫쮾뗄랢햹ꎬ쯹틔쫇헽횸뇪ꎻ죧럑폃싊ꆢ엢뢶싊뗈횸뇪ꎬ횸뇪횵풽킡ꎬ풽폐샻폚릫쮾뗄뺭볃킧틦ꎬ쯹틔쫇쓦횸뇪ꎻ죧닺뢺햮싊ꆢ쇷뚯뇈싊뗈횸뇪ꎬ횸뇪횵맽듳믲헟맽킡뚼늻샻폚릫쮾뗄뎤웚랢햹ꎬ뛸쫇풽뷓뷼퓚튻룶쳘뚨뗄쫊뛈횵풽뫃ꎬ쯹틔쫇쫊뛈횸뇪ꆣ퓚뷸탐움볛볆럖횮잰ꎬ뇘탫튪쿈붫쫊뛈횸뇪폫쓦횸뇪쟷춬뮯ꎬ뮯캪헽횸뇪ꆣ쓦횸뇪쟷춬뮯뒦샭뗄랽램폐뫜뛠훖ꎬ쒿잰훷튪폐좡떹쫽ꆢ좡뢺쫽뗈뛠훖랽램ꎬ놾퇐뺿훐쓦횸뇪닉폃좡뢺쫽뗄랽쪽뷸탐뒦샭ꎬ벴Xꎬ=-Xꆣ 뛸쫊뛈횸뇪ꎬ볙짨쫊뛈횵캪aꎬ뮻맽돌캪ꎺ ꎬ1 X= ꎨꎩ 1+X-a뺭맽횸뇪쟷춬뮯뒦샭ꎬ붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뗄돵쪼쫽뻝훐뗄쓦횸뇪폫쫊뛈횸뇪뚼뮯캪헽횸뇪ꎬA,=a,()ijm×n캪뺭맽쟷춬뮯뒦샭뫳뗄횸뇪뻘헳ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ횸뇪컞솿룙뮯뒦샭 퓚뺭펪벨킧움볛횸뇪쳥쾵훐ꎬ쎿튻룶횸뇪뚼폐쟸뇰폚웤쯼뗄볆쯣랽램ꎬ횸뇪쯹퓌몭뗄틢틥튲췪좫늻춬ꎬ틲듋뛔폚룷룶횸뇪뗄쫽횵듳킡쎻폐튻룶쿠춬뗄뫢솿ힼ퓲ꎬ움볛틲캪횸뇪횮볤떥캻뫍솿벶뗄늻춬뛸컞램횱뷓뷸탐ꆣ쯹틔퓚쟷춬뮯뒦샭횮뫳ꎬ뮹뇘탫뛔횸뇪뷸탐컞솿룙뮯뒦샭ꎬ뛔횸뇪횵뷸탐뇪ힼ뮯뒦샭ꎬ퓋폃튻뚨뗄쫽톧랽램붫몭틥폫솿벶늻춬뗄횸뇪뮻돉쓜릻폃폚ퟛ뫏움볛뗄쿠뛔횵ꎬ듓뛸좷놣룷횸뇪볤뻟폐뿉뇈탔ꆣ?쒿잰횸뇪컞솿룙뮯뒦샭뗄랽램훷튪폐솽샠ꎬ튻샠쫇쿟탔랽램ꎬ튻샠쫇럇쿟탔랽램ꆣ뛸럇쿟탔랽램퓚닎쫽좷뚨짏쓑뛈뫜듳ꎬ늢쟒뒦샭맽돌쪮럖랱쯶ꎬ쯹틔쿟탔랽램퓚컞솿룙뮯뒦샭맽돌훐뗃떽쇋맣랺뗄펦폃ꆣ쿟탔랽램폖냼몬벫닮헽맦램ꆢ뻹횵램ꆢ뇪ힼ뮯램ꆣ틲캪퓚뛔횸뇪뷸탐횵볆쯣뗄맽돌훐탨튪좡뛔쫽ꎬ쯹틔캪쇋뇜쏢횵뷡맻훐돶쿖뢺횵ꎬ헢샯톡좡벫닮헽맦램뛔쫽뻝뷸탐컞솿룙뮯뒦샭ꎬ쯼뗄뮻맽돌캪ꎺ?a−min(aijij)ir=,=1,2,...,10;j=1,2,...,16 ꎨꎩ ijmax(a)−min(aijij)ii 38
쓏뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 뇭쿔쪾쇋퓚횸뇪쟷춬뮯뒦샭뗄믹뒡뷸튻늽뛔횸뇪뷸탐컞솿룙뮯뒦샭뗄뷡맻ꎬR=(r)캪뺭맽뒦샭뫳ijm×n뗄횸뇪뻘헳ꆣ 뇭 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 죋놣? 첫욽퇳? 욽낲? 뮪첩? 쳬낲? 훐뮪솪뫏? 폀낲? 퇴맢? 낲냮? 뚼냮? 짏쫐릫쮾?X9 X10 X11 X12 X13 X14 X15 X16 죋놣? 첫욽퇳? 욽낲? 뮪첩? 쳬낲? 훐뮪솪뫏? 폀낲? 퇴맢? 낲냮? 뚼냮? 횵램움볛맽돌 춨맽짏쫶뛔쫽뻝뗄풤뒦샭ꎬ쫽뻝틑싺ퟣ움볛뗄탨튪ꎬ뿉틔퓋폃횵램뛔웤뷸탐뻟쳥뗄움볛ꆣ ꎨ1ꎩ맩튻뮯뒦샭 퓋폃릫쪽뛔놣쿕릫쮾뗄맦랶쫽뻝R=(r)ijm×n뷸탐맩튻뮯뒦샭ꎬ뗃돶뻘헳F=(f)ꎬ뻟쳥뷡맻볻뇭ꆣ ijm×n 39
붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿 뇭 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 죋놣? 첫욽퇳? 욽낲? 뮪첩? 쳬낲? 훐뮪솪뫏? 폀낲? 퇴맢? 낲냮? 뚼냮? 짏쫐릫쮾?X9 X10 X11 X12 X13 X14 X15 X16 죋놣? 첫욽퇳? 욽낲? 뮪첩? 쳬낲? 훐뮪솪뫏? 폀낲? 퇴맢? 낲냮? 뚼냮? ꎨ2ꎩ볆쯣뗚j룶움볛횸뇪뗄 춨맽맩튻뮯뒦샭뗄뻘헳F=(f)ijm×nꎬ퓋폃릫쪽볆쯣뗚j룶움볛횸뇪뗄Hꆣ춨맽j볆쯣ꎬ뗃돶16쿮움볛횸뇪뗄횵ꎬ뻟쳥뷡맻볻뇭ꆣ춨맽볆쯣ꎬ뗃돶16쿮움볛횸뇪뗄횵ꎨ볻뇭ꎩꆣ 40
쓏뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 뇭 붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾횵벰좨볆쯣맽돌?짏쫐릫쮾?X1 X2 X3 X4 X5 X6 X7 X8 죋놣? 첫욽퇳? 욽낲? 뮪첩? 쳬낲? 훐뮪솪뫏? 폀낲? 퇴맢? 낲냮? 뚼냮? 횵? 닮틬쾵쫽? 좨? 짏쫐릫쮾?X9 X10 X11 X12 X13 X14 X15 X16 죋놣? 첫욽퇳? 욽낲? 뮪첩? 쳬낲? 훐뮪솪뫏? 폀낲? 퇴맢? 낲냮? 뚼냮? 횵? 닮틬쾵쫽? 좨? ꎨ3ꎩ볆쯣쎿룶움볛횸뇪뗄좨훘ꎨ벴캪좨ꎩ 퓋폃릫쪽좷뚨쎿룶움볛횸뇪뗄좨훘wꎬ춨맽볆쯣ꎬퟮ훕뗃돶16쿮움볛횸뇪뗄좨ꎨ좨j훘ꎩꎨ볻뇭ꎩꆣ 41
붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿 뇭 펯샻쓜솦돐놣샻죳싊? 뺻닺쫕틦싊? 뎥뢶쓜솦닺뢺햮싊? 만뚨닺뇈싊? 펪퓋쓜솦펦쫕놣럑훜싊? 돉뎤쓜솦놣럑쫕죫퓶뎤싊? 뺻샻죳퓶뎤싊? 벼쫵쓜솦듳벰틔짏톧샺죋풱뇈훘? 쫐뎡쓜솦훷펪튵컱쫐뎡햼폐싊? ꎨ4ꎩ뷸탐ퟛ뫏움럖 룹뻝짏쫶볆쯣뗄횸뇪좨훘ꎬ퓋폃릫쪽볆쯣쎿튻룶놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뗄ퟛ뫏뗃럖zꎬ늢i뛔웤횵뷸탐업탲ꎨ볻뇭ꎩꆣ 뇭 붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛ퟮ훕업쏻ꎨ내ퟜ럖듓룟떽뗍업쇐ꎩ?릫쮾볲돆?ퟮ훕뗃럖?펯샻쓜솦?뎥뢶쓜솦?펪퓋쓜솦?돉뎤쓜솦?벼쫵쓜솦?쫐뎡쓜솦?죋놣? 낲냮? 욽낲? 퇴맢? 뮪첩? 폀낲? 첫욽퇳? 뚼냮? 훐뮪솪뫏? 쳬낲? 횸뇪좨훘벰움볛뷡맻럖컶 횵폫좨훘럖컶 퓚볆쯣횵좷뚨좨훘뗄맽돌훐뿉틔랢쿖ꎬ튻벶횸뇪훐뗄돉뎤쓜솦뫍쫐뎡쓜솦뗄횵뷏킡ꎬ랴펳쇋늻춬릫쮾짏쫶횸뇪볤뗄닮틬뷏듳ꎬ헢훷튪쫇평폚붭쯕쪡뻸듳늿럖닺쿕튵컱쫐뎡럝뛮놻짙 42
쓏뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 쫽벸볒닆쿕릫쮾햼쇬퓬돉뗄ꆣ듓쇭튻룶닣쏦뾴ꎬ횵풽킡ꎬ횸뇪좨훘풽듳ꎬ쳘뇰쫇쫐뎡쓜솦뗄좨훘듯떽ꎬ쮵쏷쫐뎡쓜솦헢튻럇닆컱틲쯘뗄훘튪탔뗃떽쇋횤쪵ꆣ듋췢ꎬ벼쫵쓜솦ꆢ펯샻쓜솦뗄좨훘튲럖뇰듯떽ꆢꎬ뛔릫쮾뗄뺭펪벨킧춬퇹폐ퟅ훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ뎥뢶쓜솦뫍펪퓋쓜솦횸뇪좨훘뷏킡ꎬ뷶캪뫍ꎬ쮵쏷붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾퓚헢솽랽쏦닮틬탔늻쿔훸ꆣ 뷸튻늽뛔뛾벶횸뇪뷸탐럖컶ꎬ볆쯣룷맘볼틲쯘좨훘퓚룷ퟔ닣쏦훐뗄햼뇈ꎬ췚뻲돶릹돉놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뗄훘튪틲쯘ꎬ죧펯샻쓜솦훐럑폃싊뗄좨훘햼뇈33%ꎬ뎥뢶쓜솦훐쇷뚯뇈싊뗄좨훘햼뇈38%ꎬ펪퓋쓜솦훐뗄펦쫕놣럑훜싊뗄좨훘햼뇈77%ꎬ돉뎤쓜솦훐닺퓶뎤싊뗄좨훘햼뇈67%ꎬ벼쫵쓜솦훐뗄듳벰틔짏톧샺죋풱뇈훘뗄좨훘햼뇈63%ꎬ쫐뎡쓜솦훐훷펪튵컱쫐뎡햼폐싊뗄좨훘햼뇈뗈85%ꆣ춨맽뛔뛾벶횸뇪횵벰좨훘뗄뷸튻늽럖컶ꎬ붫펰쿬붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺺헹폅쫆뗄틲쯘쾸뮯ꎬ쪹뗃룷릫쮾퓚룄짆햽싔뺭펪벨킧벰탎돉뫋탄뺺헹솦뗄닟싔폫듫쪩짏헫뛔탔룼잿ꆣ 춨맽좨훘뗄럖엤ꎬ캪붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾쳡릩쇋얬솦뗄랽쿲ꎬ퓚떱뷱뺭볃좫쟲뮯뗄쪱듺ꎬ돽쇋펯샻쓜솦뗈닆컱랽쏦뗄틲쯘ꎬ벼쫵쓜솦폫짺닺쓜솦뗈럇닆컱랽쏦틲쯘튲뫜듳돌뛈뗘펰쿬ퟅ웳튵뗄돖탸랢햹쓜솦ꎬ볓잿웳튵뗄쓚늿뿘훆ꎬ쳡룟뺭펪맜샭뗄킧싊ꎬ닅쓜듓룹놾짏쳡룟웳튵뗄뺭볃킧틦ꆣ닎헕룷쿮횸뇪뗄횵폫좨훘ꎬ붭쯕쪡룷닆닺놣쿕릫쮾펦룃듓좨훘뷏듳뗄랽쏦ퟅ쫖ꎬ뷡뫏릫쮾ퟔ짭뗄쪵볊쟩뿶ꎬ듓뛸훆뚨폐헫뛔탔뗄랢햹햽싔ꎬ쳡짽뺺헹폅쫆ꆣ 업쏻럖컶 춨맽ퟮ훕업쏻럖컶ꎨ볻뇭5-7ꎩꎬ쪡쓚횪쏻닆닺놣쿕릫쮾죋놣ꆢ낲냮ꆢ욽낲뗈움럖뷏룟ꎬ럖뇰캻쇐잰죽쏻ꎬ폫릫죏뗄짧믡움볛쫇튻훂뗄ꆣ떫쫇뗚튻쏻뗄죋놣폫ퟮ뫳튻쏻뗄쳬낲퓚펯샻쓜솦ꆢ돉뎤쓜솦ꆢ벼쫵쓜솦ꆢ쫐뎡쓜솦뗈맘볼튪쯘랽쏦닮뻠쏷쿔ꎬ잰헟뗄ퟜ럖듯쫇뫳헟뗄죽놶횮뛠ꎬ헢쮵쏷붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾ퟜ쳥랢햹쮮욽닎닮늻웫ꆣ춬쪱ퟜ움럖ퟮ룟뗄훐맺죋놣뗃럖캪ꎬ쟒헻쳥놣쿕릫쮾뗃럖뻹횵뷶캪ꎬ랴펳돶쪡쓚닆닺놣쿕튵헻쳥뺺헹폅쫆늻잿ꎬ웤뺭펪벨킧뮹듦퓚뫜뛠횵뗃룄뷸뗄뗘랽ꆣ 뻟쳥살쮵ꎬ춨맽뛔퇹놾릫쮾룷떥쿮움럖뗄뇈뷏ꎬ뿉틔랢쿖ꎺ퓚뎥뢶쓜솦뫍펪퓋쓜솦솽룶랽쏦ꎬ룷볒릫쮾뗄쮮욽쿠닮늻듳ꎻ뛸퓚펯샻쓜솦ꆢ벼쫵쓜솦ꆢ돉뎤쓜솦ꆢ쫐뎡쓜솦ꎬ폈웤쫇쫐뎡쓜솦랽쏦ꎬ룷볒릫쮾뗄뗃럖닮틬뷏듳ꆣ뿉볻ꎬ쒿잰붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾퓚폐샻폚탎돉뎤웚뺺헹폅쫆뗄펯샻쓜솦ꆢ벼쫵쓜솦ꆢ돉뎤쓜솦틔벰쫐뎡쓜솦랽쏦뇭쿖튻냣ꎬ돽쇋업쏻뾿잰뗄짙쫽벸볒릫쮾움럖뷏룟췢ꎬ웤폠릫쮾뻹뇭쿖뷏닮ꆣ틲듋ꎬ붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뇘탫볓잿뛔짏쫶뗃럖닮틬뷏듳랽쏦뗄훘쫓ꎬ헢퇹닅쓜놣횤쪡쓚닆놨튵돖탸ꆢ붡뾵랢햹ꎬ늢퓚벤쇒뗄뺺헹훐탎돉뛀쳘뗄뫋탄뺺헹솦ꆣ 43
붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿 뻟쳥틔업쏻뗚뛾뗄낲냮닆닺놣쿕막럝폐쿞릫쮾붭쯕쪡럖릫쮾캪샽ꎬ낲냮닆쿕쯤좻뒴냬쪱볤뷏췭ꎬ떫웤욾뷨탛뫱뗄막뚫쪵솦ꎬ튻쇷뗄웳튵컄뮯ꎬ뷱쓪살랢햹첬쫆톸쏍ꆣ춨맽ퟮ훕뗃럖뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ낲냮퓚펯샻쓜솦ꆢ돉뎤쓜솦ꆢ벼쫵쓜솦랽쏦뗃럖뻹쏻쇐잰쎩ꎬ폈웤쫇퓚룟톧샺폫벼쓜풱릤뇈훘랽쏦뇭쿖폈웤춻돶ꎬ헢킩쫇웳튵탎돉뎤웚뺺헹폅쫆뗄훘튪틲쯘ꎬ듓뛸췆뚯쇋낲냮닆쿕퓚붭쯕쪡쓚뗄량쯙랢햹ꆣ춬쪱튲펦뾴떽ꎬ낲냮뗄움볛ퟜ럖뷶캪ꎬ폫ퟮ폅횵1쿠닮짵풶ꎬ퓚뎥뢶쓜솦폫쫐뎡쓜솦짏뗃럖늻룟ꎬ춨맽뛔웤닆컱놨뇭뷸튻늽뗄럖컶ꎬ뿉틔뷒쪾돶듦퓚뗄컊쳢ꎬ뎥뢶쓜솦랽쏦평폚쇷뚯뇈싊맽룟ꎬ뇭쏷웤쇷뚯뷰쿐훃퇏훘ꎬ뿉쓜믡뛔웳튵뗄춶쫕틦싊퓬돉뷏듳펰쿬ꎻ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ평폚릫쮾돉솢쪱볤뷏뛌ꎬ쫜뒫춳횪쏻닆놣릫쮾뗄펰쿬ꎬ낲냮뫜쓑퓚붭쯕쪡뛌웚쓚좡뗃뷏듳뗄쫐뎡럝뛮ꎬ떼훂쇋릫쮾퓚쫐뎡쓜솦움볛훐뗃럖뷏뗍ꆣ춨맽움볛ꎬ믱뗃룷늿럖뗄뗃럖ꎬ뿉틔쏷좷낲냮닆쿕퓚뺭펪벨킧랽쏦듦퓚뗄폅쫆폫쇓쫆ꎬ듓뛸캪웤훆뚨쿠펦뗄랢햹뛔닟쳡릩틀뻝ꎬ뷸튻늽룄짆릫쮾뺭펪벨킧ꎬ쳡짽ퟔ짭뫋탄뺺헹솦ꆣ춬퇹ꎬ웤쯼릫쮾뗄뺭펪벨킧튲뿉틔룹뻝듋랽램ꎬ뗃돶쿠펦뗄뷡싛ꎬ훆뚨쫊틋뗄랢햹뛔닟ꆣ 업쏻닮틬뇈뷏 뛔10볒닆닺놣쿕릫쮾2009쓪퓚붭쯕쪡닺쿕쫐뎡햼뻝뗄쫐뎡럝뛮뷸탐업쏻ꎬ뷸튻늽붫놾퇐뺿쯹뗃뗄업쏻폫쫐뎡럝뛮업쏻뷸탐뇈뷏(쿪볻뇭)ꆣ 뇭 1 첫욽퇳?7 3 욽낲?3 2 뮪첩?5 6 쳬낲?10 7 훐뮪솪뫏?9 4 폀낲?6 9 퇴맢?4 10 낲냮?2 8 뚼냮?8 5 44
쓏뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 춨맽놾퇐뺿업쏻폫쫐뎡럝뛮업쏻쟷쫆춼ꎨ뻟쳥볻춼ꎩ뿉틔뷏뫃뗘뾴돶쯼쏇횮볤뗄솪쾵폫쟸뇰ꆣ ㄲ??놾퇐뺿업쏻?쫐뎡럝뛮업쏻??죋첫욽뮪쳬훐폀퇴낲뚼놣욽낲첩낲뮪낲맢냮냮퇳솪뫏춼 놾퇐뺿업쏻폫쫐뎡럝뛮업쏻쟷쫆춼?듓춼뿉틔랢쿖ꎬ돽쇋훐뮪솪뫏ꆢ퇴맢ꆢ낲냮4볒릫쮾횮췢ꎬ웤폠6볒릫쮾퓚놾퇐뺿뗄업쏻쟷쫆폫퓚쫐뎡럝뛮훐뗄업쏻쟷쫆쿠뷼ꆣ폈웤쫇퓚놾퇐뺿훐업쏻뗚튻뗄죋놣ꆢ뗚죽뗄욽낲ꎬ퓚쫐뎡럝뛮훐뗄업쏻럖뇰캪뗚튻뫍뗚뛾ꎬ컞싛쫇퓚펯샻ꆢ닺맜샭ꆢ퓋펪맜샭ꆢ벼쫵뒴탂ꆢ쫐뎡랢햹짏뚼폐솼뫃뗄뇭쿖ꎬ뻟놸뷏잿뗄뎤웚돖탸랢햹쓜솦ꎬ춬쪱퓚쪡쓚닺쿕쫐뎡햼뻝뻙ퟣ쟡훘뗄뗘캻ꎬ헢폫짧믡뛔룃릫쮾뗄죏춬뛈쿠럻ꆣ퓚쫐뎡럝뛮업쏻뷏캪뾿뫳뗄낲냮ꎬ평폚퓚펯샻쓜솦ꆢ펪퓋쓜솦ꆢ쫐뎡쓜솦ꎬ폈웤쫇벼쫵쓜솦짏뻹폐늻쯗뇭쿖ꎬ틲듋믱뗃쇋뷏룟뗄뗃럖ꆣ뿉볻낲냮닆놣쯤좻퓚쪡쓚쫐뎡럝뛮햼폐뛈뷏뗍ꎬ떫쫇퓚샻죳싊ꆢ쫐뎡럝뛮햼폐싊짏돊쿖컈늽엊짽뗄쟷쫆ꎬ뛸쟒벼쫵쓜솦랽쏦뷏룟뗄뗃럖ꎬ쳥쿖릫쮾펵폐잿듳뗄룟쯘훊풱릤뛓컩ꎬ헢뛔릫쮾뷱뫳뗄닺욷퇐랢ꆢ퓋펪맜샭폐ퟅ뎤풶뗄틢틥ꆣ퓚쫐뎡럝뛮훐업쏻뗚죽뗄첫욽퇳ꎬ쯤좻퓚펯샻랽쏦뇭쿖뷏뫃ꎬ떫쫇퓚펪퓋쓜솦뫍벼쫵쓜솦훐뇭쿖뷏닮ꎬ폈웤쫇퓚놾퇐뺿훐좨햼뇈뷏룟뗄벼쫵쓜솦횸뇪훐ꎬ뗃럖뫜뗍ꎬ쮵쏷룃릫쮾퓚풱릤엤훃짏뛔폚룟톧샺ꆢ룟횰튵쯘훊죋닅짏늢늻뾴훘ꎬ헢뛔릫쮾뗄뎤풶랢햹쫇럇뎣늻샻뗄ꆣ쯹틔첫욽퇳튪쿫릮만ퟔ짭퓚쪡쓚닺쿕쫐뎡럝뛮뗚튻벯췅뗄캻훃ꎬ뇘탫퓚풱릤뗄슼폃폫죋닅엠퇸랽쏦룸폫ퟣ릻뗄훘쫓ꆣ 뿉볻ꎬ붫닆컱횸뇪폫럇닆컱횸뇪튻늢쓉죫릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛쳥쾵ꎬ뿉틔좫쏦랴펳릫쮾뗄뺭펪벨킧쟩뿶ꎬ움볛뷡맻뷏캪뿍맛ꎬ럻뫏웳튵뎤웚돖탸랢햹뗄탨쟳ꎬ룼볓ힼ좷ꆢ쫊폃ꆣ 45
붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿 킡뷡 춨맽뛔붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뗄쪵횤볬퇩뗄퇐뺿ꎬ횤쏷쇋틔횵램캪믹뒡뗄뺭펪벨킧움볛랽램뗄뿆톧탔ꎬ쯹붨솢뗄움볛횸뇪쳥쾵싺ퟣ놣쿕릫쮾벨킧움볛뗄믹놾튪쟳ꆣ놣쿕릫쮾뿉틔뷨본횸뇪뗄좨훘틔벰쿠맘뗄움볛럖컶ꎬ헒돶펰쿬ퟔ짭뺭펪랢햹뗄맘볼탔틲쯘ꎬ뷸튻늽룄짆릫쮾뗄뺭펪맜샭ꎬ쳡짽뫋탄뺺헹솦ꆣ쯦ퟅ놣쿕튵뗄엮늪랢햹ꎬ뿆톧퓋폃횵램움볛놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧ꎬ뻟폐뎤풶뗄랢햹뿕볤ꆣ? 46
쓏뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 뗚쇹헂 퇐뺿ퟜ뷡폫햹췻 놣쿕쫐뎡폫틸탐탅듻쫐뎡ꆢ횤좯쫐뎡ꎬ릲춬릹돉쇋헻룶뷰죚쫐뎡뗄죽듳횧훹ꎬ쫇펰쿬컒맺뷰죚탐튵붡뾵ꆢ컈뚨ꆢ돖탸랢햹뗄훘튪틲쯘ꆣ뷸죫20쫀볍90쓪듺ꎬ냩쯦컒맺놣쿕쫐뎡뗄룄룯뾪럅ꎬ놣쿕튵랢햹춻량쏍뷸ꆣ뛔폚놣쿕릫쮾뗄뺭펪벨킧움볛뗄컊쳢풽살풽쫜떽짧믡룷뷧뗄맣랺맘힢ꆣ놾컄퓋뛔붭쯕쪡훷튪닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뗄훷튪횸뇪뷸탐럖컶춳볆ꎬ샻폃횵램뷸탐ퟛ뫏움볛ꎬ룹뻝움볛뷡맻뷡뫏쿖쪵ힴ뿶럖컶쇋펰쿬웤뺭펪벨킧뗄풭틲늢쳡돶쿠펦뗄붨틩ꆣ? 퇐뺿ퟜ뷡 캧죆놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛횸뇪쳥쾵뫍랽램ꎬ놾컄뗄퇐뺿훷튪ퟶ쇋틔쿂튻킩릤ퟷꎺ?ꎨ?ꎩ좫쏦닻쫶쇋맺쓚췢뛔웳튵뺭펪벨킧움볛벰놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛뗄퇐뺿돉맻ꎬ퓚뛔쯼쏇럖컶뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ틽돶놾컄뗄퇐뺿틀뻝ꆢ퇐뺿랽램뫍퇐뺿뿲볜ꆣ?ꎨ?ꎩ닻쫶놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛믹놾샭싛ꎬ웤훐훘뗣첽쳖놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛뗄믹놾몬틥ꆢ쳘뗣ꆢ틢틥벰믹놾쮼슷ꆣ?ꎨ?ꎩ뷡뫏붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾쪵볹ꎬ횸돶닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛탨볓잿뛔폐샻폚탎돉뎤웚뺺헹폅쫆뗄틲쯘뗄맘힢ꎬ춨맽뛔뒫춳닆컱튵벨움볛횸뇪뗄럖샠폫맩쓉ꎬ늢붫폐샻폚탎돉캴살뺺헹폅쫆뗄럇닆컱랽쏦쓉죫횸뇪쳥쾵훐살ꎬ쪵쿖쇋닆컱폫럇닆컱횸뇪뗄뷡뫏ꎬ붨솢쇋룼캪췪짆뗄닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧횸뇪움볛쳥쾵ꎬ헢튲쫇컄헂뗄훘튪뒴탂쯹퓚ꆣ?ꎨ?ꎩ캪쇋뿋럾훷맛뢳좨뗄좱쿝ꎬ톡좡횵램뛔움볛횸뇪쳥쾵훐룷횸뇪뷸탐좨훘볆럖ꎬ쯹뗃뷡맻뻟폐뿍맛캨튻탔ꆣ?ꎨ?ꎩ톡좡붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾훐10볒훷튪닺쿕릫쮾ퟷ캪퇐뺿뛔쿳ꎬ틔움볛횸뇪횵뗄좷뚨틔벰좨훘뗄볆럖캪믹뒡ꎬ뷸탐쇋횸뇪폫좨훘럖컶ꆢ업쏻럖컶틔벰업쏻닮틬뗄뇈뷏ꎬ싛횤쇋랽램뗄헽좷탔폫쪵폃탔ꎬ뛔닆닺놣쿕릫쮾랢쿖듦퓚뗄컊쳢늢훆뚨쿠펦뗄랢햹뛔닟뻟폐튻뚨뗄뷨본ퟷ폃ꆣ? 퇐뺿뷡싛 틔붭쯕쪡훷튪닆닺놣쿕릫쮾캪움볛뛔쿳ꎬ퓚돤럖뷨본맺쓚췢놣쿕탐튵뺭펪벨킧움볛랽램뫍횸뇪쳥쾵뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ톡좡쫊폃폚놣쿕탐튵뗄뺭펪벨킧움볛횸뇪ꆣ늢룹뻝닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뗄쪵볊쳘뗣ꎬ틽죫벼쫵쓜솦벰쫐뎡쓜솦뗈럇닆컱횸뇪ꎬ붫웤쓉죫움볛횸뇪쳥쾵ꆣ듓뛸릹붨쇋놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛횸뇪쳥쾵ꎬ늢뷸튻늽붨솢쫊뫏닆닺놣쿕릫쮾쪵볊쟩뿶뗄뺭펪벨킧움볛쒣탍ꎬ뛔붭쯕쪡쓚훷튪닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧ퟶ돶ퟛ뫏믽럖ꎬ듓훐헒돶쇋펰쿬닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뗄맘볼47
붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿 탔틲쯘벰랢햹뛔닟ꆣ틔웚뛔붭쯕쪡쓋훁좫맺랶캧쓚닺쿕튵뗄랢햹웰떽튻뚨샭싛뫍쪵볊뗄뷨본ퟷ폃ꆣ뷸튻늽쳡짽뺺헹솦벰탎돉뺺헹폅쫆폐튻뚨뗄샭싛닎뾼볛횵뫍쿖쪵뗄횸떼틢틥ꆣ춨맽퇐뺿ꎬ놾컄뗃돶죧쿂뷡싛ꎺ?ꎨ1ꎩ닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛쫇컒맺닺쿕릫쮾럖컶뺭펪벨킧ꎬ톰쟳랢햹뗀슷ꎬ릹붨뫋탄뺺헹솦ꎬ쒱쟳뿉돖탸랢햹뗄훘튪쫖뛎ꆣ컒맺놣쿕탐튵랢햹웰늽뷏췭ꎬ맺쓚놣쿕릫쮾컞싛쫇퓚웳튵맦쒣ꆢ맜샭믺훆ꎬ뮹쫇퓚랢햹쒣쪽랽쏦ꎬ폫맺췢놣쿕릫쮾쿠뇈뚼듦퓚ퟅ뇈뷏듳뗄닮뻠ꆣ튻횱틔살ꎬ맺쓚늿럖닺쿕릫쮾맽럖맘힢닆컱횸뇪ꎬ닉좡룟춶죫ꆢ룟쿻뫄뗄듖럅탍랢햹쒣쪽ꎬ벤샸뾼뫋헾닟욫훘폚쫕죫맦쒣뫍퓶뎤럹뛈ꎬ떼훂릫쮾퓚뺭펪훐죋뻹닺쓜뗍ꎬ럑폃돉놾룟ꎬ뺭펪킧틦뗍쿂ꆣ틲듋ꎬ뇘탫듳솦췆뷸컒맺닺쿕튵랢햹쒣쪽뗄뇤ꎬ냑컈퓶뎤붨솢퓚쳡룟훊솿ꆢ폅뮯뷡릹ꆢ퓶볓킧틦ꆢ룄짆럾컱뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ볓잿뛔뒴탂쓜솦ꆢ벼쫵쓜솦ꆢ맜샭쓜솦뗈틲쯘뗄훘쫓ꎬ붫웤ퟷ캪웳튵뺭펪벨킧움볛뗄훘튪쓚죝ꆣ횻폐헢퇹ꎬ닅쓜듓룹놾짏얤쒿잰닺쿕킧틦늻병뗄삧뺳ꎬ탎돉닺쿕릫쮾뗄뎤웚뫋탄뺺헹솦ꎬ싺ퟣ뺭볃짧믡뫍죋쏱짺믮뛔놣쿕튵쳡돶뗄탂튪쟳ꎬ헦헽쪵쿖닆닺놣쿕튵뗄폖뫃폖뿬뗄랢햹ꆣ?ꎨ2ꎩ뺭펪벨킧움볛뇘탫볡돖닆컱횸뇪폫럇닆컱횸뇪쿠뷡뫏ꎬ늢볓잿뛔럇닆컱횸뇪뗄훘쫓ꆣ평폚닆컱튵벨움볛횸뇪쳥쾵욫훘폚뛔릫쮾뇭쿳뫍맽좥뺭펪벨킧움볛ꎬ뫶쫓뛔럇닆컱랽쏦펰쿬뗄움볛ꎬ뷶뷶틀뻝닆컱횸뇪살뷸탐뺭펪벨킧움볛살뷸탐움볛쫇욬쏦뗄ꆣ뛸럇닆컱횸뇪쯹냼몬뗄쫐뎡햼폐싊ꆢ벼쫵쓜솦뗈랽쏦ꎬ췹췹쫇웳튵쓜솦ퟮ놾훊뗄뚫컷ꎬ벫듳돌뛈짏뻶뚨쇋웳튵퓚떱잰쓋훁캴살뗄뫋탄뺺헹솦ꎬ쯹틔럇닆컱횸뇪튻뚨튪ퟶퟷ캪훘뗣움볛뛔쿳ꎬ폫닆컱횸뇪폐킧뗘뷡뫏퓚튻웰ꎬ닅쓜뛔웳튵뗄뺭펪벨킧ퟶ돶뿍맛ꆢ좫쏦ꆢힼ좷뗄움볛ꎬ닅쓜쪹웳튵쯹폐헟폫뺭펪헟쓜룼뫃뗄죏쟥웳튵뗄뺺헹폅쫆쯹퓚폫듦퓚뗄컊쳢폫늻ퟣꎬ듓뛸룼뷸튻늽훆뚨쿠펦뗄랢햹뛔닟ꎬ퇯뎤뇜뛌ꎬ퓚벤샸뗄뺺헹훐뒦폚폐샻뗘캻ꆣ??ꎨ3ꎩ뺭펪벨킧움볛펦춨맽뿍맛랽램살좷뚨좨훘ꆣ쯤좻훷맛랽램늻쪧캪움볛웳튵뺭펪벨킧뗄뎣폃랽램ꎬ떫평폚컒맺뺭펪벨킧움볛샭싛퇐뺿닅룕룕웰늽ꎬ춨맽훷맛랽램살좷뚨좨훘쫜훷맛틲쯘뗄펰쿬뷏듳ꎬ쓑틔놣횤헦쪵랴펳벨킧움볛훐횸뇪쳥쾵뗄닠훘뗣ꆣ벨킧움볛랽램춨맽뿍맛랽램살뫢솿횸뇪뗄좨ꎬ췪좫내헕쯹믱헦쪵쫽뻝쇏뷸탐볆쯣ꎬ쯹뗃뷡맻뻟놸뿆톧탔ꎬ쓜릻뛔움볛뛔쿳ퟶ돶좫쏦ꆢힼ좷ꆢ늻쫜훷맛틲쯘펰쿬뗄헽좷움볛ꆣ?ꎨ4ꎩ춨맽뛔붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뗄쪵횤볬퇩뗄퇐뺿ꎬ뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ퇐뺿랶캧쓚룷릫쮾퓚펯샻쓜솦ꆢ뎥뢶쓜솦뗈닆컱탔횸뇪훐뗄뇭쿖늢컞뫜듳닮뻠ꎬ떫쫇퓚맘뫵웳튵뎤웚돖탸랢햹뗄럇닆컱횸뇪랽쏦ꎬ듦퓚ퟅ뇈뷏듳뗄닮뻠ꆣ평듋뿉볻ꎬ벼쫵쓜솦ꆢ쫐뎡쓜솦뗈럇닆컱랽쏦뗄틲쯘ꎬ쫇떱잰뻶뚨붭쯕쪡닆쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧닮틬뗄맘볼탔틲쯘ꎬ헢폫늿럖닺쿕릫쮾ꆰ훘닆컱쟡쓜솦ꆱꆢꆰ훘뛌웚쟡뎤풶ꆱ뗄쿖쿳늻컞맘쾵ꆣ뛸뗃럖뷏룟ꎬ업쏻뾿잰뗄릫쮾ꎬ웤폅폚튻냣웳튵뗄뺺헹폅쫆퓚폚벼쫵쓜솦ꆢ쫐뎡쓜솦뗈랽쏦ꎬ평듋탎돉쇋헢킩웳튵돖탸랢햹뗄뻞듳잱솦ꆣ? 48
쓏뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 뷸튻늽퇐뺿뗄랽쿲 ꎨ1ꎩ횵램평폚짮뿌뗘랴펳쇋횸뇪탅쾢횵뗄킧폃볛횵ꎬ웤룸돶뗄횸뇪좨횵뇈뗂뛻럆램뫍AHP램폐뷏룟뗄뿉탅뛈ꆣ떫쯼좱랦룷횸뇪횮볤뗄뫡쿲뇈뷏ꎬ폖탨튪뷏뛠뗄퇹놾쫽뻝ꎬ?퓚펦폃짏쫜떽쿞훆ꎬ?틲듋튲듦퓚튻뚨뗄뻖쿞탔ꆣ뷸튻늽뗄퇐뺿훐ꎬ뿉틔뾼싇붫웤쯻움볛랽램죧틲ퟓ럖컶램폫횵램쿠뷡뫏ꎬ뗃돶룼캪좫쏦ꆢ뿆톧뗄움볛뷡맻ꆣ?ꎨ2ꎩ럇닆컱랽쏦퓚웳튵뺭펪벨킧움볛훐뗄훘튪탔틑뗃떽샭싛뷧뗄죏뿉ꎬ떫평폚뾼싇쫽뻝믱좡뗄돉놾틔벰놾죋쓜솦뗄쿞훆ꎬ놾컄퓚럇닆컱랽쏦횻짨훃쇋벼쫵쓜솦폫쫐뎡쓜솦솽쿮횸뇪ꆣ쫂쪵짏ꎬ펰쿬컒맺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뗄럇닆컱틲쯘뫜뛠ꎬ훮죧뷰죚볠맜ꆢ맺볒뫪맛뺭볃헾닟ꆢ탐튵랢햹뮷뺳뗈틲쯘뚼뛔놣쿕릫쮾뗄뺭펪벨킧웰ퟅ뫜듳뗄펰쿬ퟷ폃ꆣ틲듋ꎬ펦볓잿뛔펰쿬놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뗄럇닆컱랽쏦틲쯘ퟶ룼볓쾵춳좫쏦뗄퇐뺿ꎬ췘햹뺭펪벨킧움볛훐뗄럇닆컱랽쏦쓚죝ꎬ춨맽뚨탔횸뇪뗄솿뮯뒦샭ꎬ폫닆컱랽쏦뗄뚨솿횸뇪튻춬쓉죫움볛횸뇪쳥쾵ꎬ듓뛸늻뛏췪짆움볛횸뇪쳥쾵ꆣ?ꎨ3ꎩ뾼싇떽쫽뻝뗄뿉믱탔ꎬ놾퇐뺿훐움볛쯹탨쫽뻝훷튪틀뻝ꆶ훐맺놣쿕쓪본ꆷꆢ붭쯕쪡춳볆뻖췸햾뫍쓏뺩쒳닆닺놣쿕릫쮾쳡릩뗄쓚늿쇏ꎬ쿔좻쫽뻝뗄헦쪵탔뫍췪헻탔뛔움볛뗄훊솿웰ퟅ벫캪맘볼뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ떫쓑틔업돽룶뇰릫쮾럛쫎놨뇭뗄탐캪ꆣ틲듋ꎬ탨볓잿뛔짏놣쿕릫쮾쿠맘쫽뻝쪶뇰탞헽뗄퇐뺿ꎬ뷸튻늽뛔쫽뻝살풴벰훊솿뷸탐럖컶ꎬ쪹벨킧움볛쫽뻝뫍움볛뷡맻룼럻뫏뗄붭쯕쪡닺쿕릫쮾뺭펪뗄쪵볊쟩뿶ꆣ?ꎨ4ꎩ놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛볆럖쒣탍뗄뿆톧탔맘쾵ퟅ움볛뗄뷡맻쫇럱ힼ좷ꎬ쒿잰샭싛뷧뗄움볛볆럖랽램훚뛠ꎬ쿔좻죎뫎떥튻볆럖랽램뚼늻뿉쓜ퟶ떽좫쏦뿆톧뗄뺭펪벨킧움볛ꎬ늻춬뗄움볛랽램믡닺짺늻춬뗄킧맻ꆣ틲듋ꎬ캪놣횤좫쏦뿆톧뗄움볛놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧ꎬ뇘탫뛔움볛볆럖쒣탍뷸탐췪짆ꎬ볓잿늻춬랽램쫊폃탔틔벰움볛킧싊뗄퇐뺿ꎬ쿻돽늻춬움볛랽램뛔움볛훊솿닺짺뗄펰쿬ꆣ?ꎨ5ꎩ놾컄쪵횤퇐뺿쒿뗄늻뷶쫇퇩횤움볛랽램뗄뿆톧탔벰폐킧탔ꎬퟮ훕쫇춨맽쪵횤퇐뺿쿲맣듳놣쿕릫쮾샻틦쿠맘헟쳡릩ힼ좷뗄뻶닟탅쾢ꆣ놾퇐뺿훐뛔폚놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛뗄쪵횤퇐뺿뷶뻖쿞퓚붭쯕쪡훷튪뗄10볒닆닺놣쿕릫쮾ꎬ퇹놾뗄쫽솿틔벰랶캧늻쫇뫜듳ꎬ뷱뫳탨뷸튻늽삩듳퇹놾쫽솿뗄랶캧ꎬ룼볓ힼ좷췪짆놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛샭싛뫍랽램ꆣ?49
붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿 닎뾼컄쿗 ?1?헅죯?웳튵뺭펪튵벨움볛랽램뗄뇈뷏퇐뺿?J崮떱듺닆뺭ꎬ2006ꎬ2ꎺ109-113???2?럫샶쾼?웳튵벨킧벰웤뻶뚨틲쯘퇐뺿?J??뎤즳샭릤듳톧톧놨ꎬ2004ꎬ9ꎺ65-67???3?닆헾늿춳볆움볛쮾?웳튵킧벨움볛컊듰?M??놱뺩ꎺ뺭볃뿆톧돶냦짧ꎬ1999???4?쏏붨쏱?훐맺웳튵킧벨움볛퇐뺿?J??닆헾퇐뺿ꎬ2004ꎬ7ꎺ2-6???5?헅쳎?믹폚웳튵벨킧움볛쳥쾵뗄쮼뾼?J??닆컱톧쾰ꎬ2007ꎬ2ꎺ12-14???6?헅죯?웳튵뺭펪튵벨움볛샭싛폫랽램뗄뇤룯?J崮믡볆퇐뺿ꎬ2001ꎬ12ꎺ46-50???7?십?쿖듺웳튵벨킧움볛쾵춳뗄퇝뇤폫랢햹쟷쫆?J崮뿆톧뷸늽폫뛔닟ꎬ2004ꎬ7ꎺ89-91???8?탬닙횾ꎬ탭쟬죰?맘폚튵벨움볛탂랶쪽뗄쮼뾼?J崮ퟔ좻뇦횤램춨톶ꎬ2002ꎬ5ꎺ46-50???9?Saatyꎬ.ꎬPecision Making for Leaders[M].Life Time Learning PublicationꎬMexic Cityꎬ1982???10?뺣탂ꎬ쇵쏀퓆?닆컱럖컶톧?M崮놱뺩ꎺ뺭볃뿆톧돶냦짧ꎬ2000???11?EcclesꎬꎬThe Performance Measurement Menifesto[J].Harrard Business ReviewꎬJan/Febꎬ1991ꎺ131-138???12?닜붨낲ꎬ헅뫌?맺쓚췢웳튵벨킧움볛랢햹뗄벸룶탂쳘뗣?J崮짺닺솦퇐뺿ꎬ2003?1ꎺ271-273???13?쯯폀럧?웳튵벨킧움볛뗄샭싛ퟛ쫶벰듦퓚뗄컊쳢럖컶?J崮풤닢ꎬ2004ꎬ2ꎺ41-47???14?뛅쪤샻?웳튵뺭펪튵벨움볛뗄뿧쫀볍쮼뾼?J崮릤튵웳튵맜샭ꎬ2001ꎬ5ꎺ54-66???15?췵뮯돉ꎬ쇵뾡폂?웳튵튵벨움볛쒣쪽퇐뺿ꎭ볦싛훐맺웳튵튵벨움볛쒣쪽톡퓱?J崮맜샭쫀뷧ꎬ2004ꎬ4ꎺ82-116???16?쇵솦ꎬ쯎횾틣?뫢솿웳튵뺭펪튵벨뗄탂랽램ꆪꆪ뺭볃퓶볓횵ꎨEVAꎩ폫탞헽뗄뺭볃퓶볓횵ꎨREVAꎩ?J崮믡볆퇐뺿ꎬ2003ꎬ3ꎺ30-36???17?마⹅噁닆컱맜샭쾵춳뗄샭싛럖컶?J崮믡볆퇐뺿ꎬ2000ꎬ31-36???18?헅뒿⹅噁튵벨움볛쳥쾵퇐뺿?M崮놱뺩ꎺ훐맺닆헾뺭볃돶냦짧ꎬ2003???19?믆컀캰ꎬ샮뒺⹅噁맜샭쒣쪽?M崮놱뺩ꎺ뺭볃맜샭돶냦짧ꎬ2004???20?Kaplan RꎬU?Urwitz?Statistical Model of Bond RatingsꎺA Methodological Inquiary?J??Journal of Businessꎬ1979ꎬ4???21?Ederington L?H?The Hedging Performance of the New Futures Market?J??Journal of?Financeꎬ1985ꎬ4? ?22?Ederington L?H?ꎬJ?B⸠YawitzꎬB?E? Roberts?The Informational Content of Bond 50
쓏뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 Rating?J??Journal of Financial Researchꎬ1987ꎬ10? ?23?Avi FiegenbaumꎬHoward Thomas?Strategic Groups and Performance?The . Insurance Industry?J??Strategic Management Journalꎬ1990ꎬ11???24?BainꎬJ?Industrial Organization?M??John Wiley and SonsꎬNew Yorkꎬ1968???25?F?M?Schere?Industrial Markets Structure and Economic Performance?M??Rand McNally College Publishing ComPanyꎬ1980???26?돂욼?잳컶닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뗄뇈싊럖컶?J??짏몣놣쿕ꎬ1999ꎬ5???27?췵펰ꎬ솺웥?컒맺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧움볛뗄럖컶?J??짌튵쪱듺ꎬ2006ꎬ15???28?샮쇖ퟓꎬ슳?닆닺놣쿕릫쮾벨킧뗄틲ퟓ럖컶?J??맜샭뿆톧ꎬ2003ꎬ3???29?샮룉뇳ꎬ퇮뎬ꎬ랶랽횾?놣쿕릫쮾벨킧움벶쳥쾵릹붨탂쮼슷?J??짌튵쪱듺ꎬ2006ꎬ13???30?헅몪ꎬ십맣뻼ꎬ쳯룟쇁?컒맺놣쿕릫쮾벨킧펰쿬틲쯘뗄쪵횤퇐뺿?J??떱듺뺭볃뿆톧ꎬ2007ꎬ3???31?닜재?냼몬뎥뢶쓜솦횸뇪뗄놣쿕웳튵벨킧움볛쳥쾵벰웤펦폃?J??쓚쏉맅닆뺭톧풺ꎬ2007 ꎬ1???32?췵펢뾭?믹폚뗂뛻럆램뫍닣듎럖컶램풭샭뗄뿆퇐쿮쒿움볛쒣탍?J崮즽컷닆뺭듳톧톧놨ꎬ2001ꎬ2???33?췵컄솼?뺭볃뚨솿럖컶램?M崮놱뺩ꎺ훐맺춳볆돶냦짧ꎬ1992???34?햿붭?쒣뫽쫽톧퓚맺쏱뺭볃훐뗄펦폃?M崮커몺ꎺ뮪훐샭릤듳톧돶냦짧ꎬ1993???35?쓴뎽쾯?웳튵뺺헹솦뚨솿움볛뗄ퟛ뫏횸쫽램孊崮뫓놱붨훾뿆벼톧풺톧놨ꎬ2002ꎬ2???36?쟘쫙뾵뗈?ퟛ뫏움볛풭샭폫펦폃?M崮놱뺩ꎺ뗧ퟓ릤튵돶냦짧ꎬ2003???37?쇵뻼ꎬ쯯ꎬ쇵뇸?샻폃TOPSIS램움볛웳튵닆컱벨킧ꎺ풭샭폫쪵횤럖컶?J崮쯄뒨듳톧톧놨?헜톧짧믡뿆톧냦?ꎬ2001ꎬ3???38?폝쿾럒ꎬ뢵?뛠횸뇪ퟛ뫏움볛랽램ퟛ쫶?J崮춳볆폫뻶닟ꎬ2004ꎬ11???39?쪩뻃폱ꎬ닱퇞폐ꎬ췵횾펢?훷돉럖럖컶램퓚웳튵뺭볃킧틦럖컶훐뗄펦폃?J崮맾뛻뇵릤돌듳톧톧놨ꎬ2004ꎬ10???40?쏗뫬ꎬ헅컄?쪵폃쿖듺춳볆럖컶랽램폫SPSS펦폃?M崮놱뺩ꎺ떱듺훐맺돶냦짧ꎬ2004???41?뗋뻛쇺?믒즫쾵춳믹놾랽램?M崮커몺ꎺ뮪훐샭릤듳톧돶냦짧?1987???42?쟱?뮪?맜샭뻶닟폫펦폃톧?M崮놱뺩ꎺ믺킵릤튵돶냦짧ꎬ2002???43?뫘쟬뒺ꎬ퇮쳺뻼?놣쿕쫐뎡뷡릹폫벨킧뗄퇐뺿쿖ힴ벰웤웴쪾?J崮뺭볃싛첳?2007ꎬ6???44?폠뺢쯉?컒맺닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뗄쪵횤럖컶?J崮컷쓏헾램듳톧톧놨ꎬ2005ꎬ4???45?퇮늨ꎬ샮쟬쾼?훐닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺭펪벨킧뗄쪵횤럖컶?J崮웳튵뺭볃ꎬ2005ꎬ10???46?쇵뫬ꎬ싳폂?싛놣쿕릫쮾ퟩ횯벨킧움볛횸뇪쳥쾵벰움볛랽램?J??훐퇫닆뺭듳톧톧놨ꎬ2007ꎬ51
붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿 1???47?쟇맰쏷?훐맺놣쿕튵랢햹햽싔퇐뺿?M崮짏몣?뢴떩듳톧돶냦짧ꎬ2003???48?쎫뗀캬?웳튵ퟛ뫏움볛뗄쟷쫆벰샭싛?J崮뺭볃쳥훆룄룯ꎬ2001ꎬ2???49?쯯냠뻼?벯췅릫쮾뺺헹솦?움볛샭싛ꆢ랽램벰낸샽?M崮놱뺩ꎺ훐맺닆헾뺭볃돶냦짧ꎬ2004???50?쟘믝쇖ꎬ맹럧?짏쫐릫쮾벨킧움볛쒣탍퇐뺿?J??짌뎡쿖듺뮯ꎬ2007ꎬ3?? 52
쓏뺩몽뿕몽쳬듳톧쮶쪿톧캻싛컄 훂킻 냩쯦ퟅ싛컄뗄췪돉ꎬ솽쓪냫뗄쮶쪿톧쾰짺퇄튲벴붫뷡쫸ꎬ믘쫗퇐뺿짺웚볤뗄뗣뗣뗎뗎ꎬ탄훐돤싺쇋컞뺡뗄룐벤ꆣ 쫗쿈ꎬ컒튪쿲컒뗄뛷쪦닜짺뢱뷌쫚뇭쪾평훔뗄룐킻ꎬ퓚헢솽쓪뛠뗄쪱볤샯ꎬ쯻퇏뷷뗄훎톧첬뛈ꆢ럡뢻뗄죋짺퓄샺ꆢ짮뫱뗄톧쫵퓬틨ꎬ쇮컒쫜틦럋잳ꎬ쫜폃훕짭ꆣ싛컄듓뾪쳢떽뚨룥웚볤뗄쎿튻룶뮷뷚ꎬ룼쫇퓚쯻쓍탄뗄횸떼쿂췪돉ꆣ킻킻쓺ꎬ뺴낮뗄닜짺샏쪦. 웤듎ꎬ퓚놾컄뗄킴ퟷ맽돌훐ꎬ뮹뗃떽쇋놾냠춬톧뗄횧돖뫍냯훺ꎬ컒튪쿲쯻쏇뇭쪾짮짮뗄킻틢ꆣ 싛컄쯹탨뗄쫽뻝쫕벯뫍쫐뎡뗷퇐ꎬ뗃떽쇋낲냮놣쿕릫쮾쓏뺩럖릫쮾쓚늿죋풱뗄좫솦횧돖ꎬ퓚듋뇭쪾훔탄룐킻ꆣ ퟮ뫳룐킻컒뗄볒죋뫍엳폑ꎬ퓚죎뫎쪱뫲ꎬ쯻쏇뚼룸폫컒ퟮ듳뗄횧돖ꎬ뛠쓪살ꎬ캪쇋컒쓜낲탄뗘췪돉톧튵ꎬ쯻쏇뢶돶쇋탭뛠탭뛠ꆣ 53
붭쯕쪡닆닺놣쿕뺭펪벨킧움볛퇐뺿 퓚톧웚볤뗄퇐뺿돉맻벰랢뇭뗄톧쫵싛컄 랢뇭뗄싛컄ꎺ?[1] 탬쏴ꎬ뫎튻?쓏뺩뺭볃탍뻆뗪랢햹닟싔퇐뺿[J]??쫐뎡훜뾯ꎨ샭싛퇐뺿ꎩꎬ2009ꎬ7ꎺ44-45? [2] 훜뷰쏷ꎬ뫎튻?믹폚뿍뮧맘쾵맜샭쳡짽닆닺놣쿕릫쮾뺺헹솦[J]??쫐뎡훜뾯ꎨ샭싛퇐뺿ꎩꎬ2010ꎬ2ꎺ39-40? [3] 뫎튻ꎬ탬쏴?컒맺웻뎵췸싧펪쿺쒣쪽뗄첽쳖[J]??쫐뎡훜뾯ꎨ샭싛퇐뺿ꎩꎬ2010ꎬ3ꎺ29-30? ? 54
