华东交通大学硕士学位论文矿产资源权利金制度研究-基于变波动率的实物期权评估模型姓名：吴颖申请学位级别：硕士专业：会计学指导教师：韩士专20070101
햪튪 뿳닺풴좨샻뷰훆뛈퇐뺿 햪튪 퓚컒맺뺭볃룟쯙랢햹뗄뷱쳬ꎬ뿳닺풴ퟷ캪훘튪뗄릤튵풭쇏벰릤튵쓜풴뛔뺭볃랢햹웰ퟅ풽살풽훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ2005쓪좫맺쎿췲풪GDP쿻뫄뗄쎺캪뛖ꎬ2006쓪짏냫쓪좫맺떥캻GDP쓜뫄짏짽%ꆣ폫뿳닺풴탨쟳퓶뎤쿠뇈ꎬ컒맺뿳닺풴뷼벸쓪맽뛈뾪닉ꆢ짺첬뮷뺳늻뛏뛱뮯ꆢ맽뗍뗄풴믘닉싊뗄쿖쪵쪹뗃컒쏇늻뗃늻훘탂랴쮼쿖폐뗄뿳닺풴닺좨훆뛈짨볆뗄뫏샭탔벰풴쮰럑훆뛈퓚쓜풴엤훃ꆢ쳡룟풴샻폃킧싊랽쏦뗄폐킧탔. 컄헂듓럖컶맺쓚췢뿳닺풴뗄닺좨훆뛈벰웤쪵쿖랽쪽죫쫖ꎬ럖컶쇋컒맺뿳닺풴샻폃킧싊폫쿈뷸맺볒횮볤뗄닮뻠,늢듓닺좨훆뛈폫뿳좨쪵쿖랽쪽짏럖컶뿳닺풴쪹폃킧싊뗍쿂ꆢ풴믘닉싊뗍뗄훷튪풭틲ꆣ컒맺뿳닺풴쫴폚맺볒쯹폐ꎬ웤닺좨쪵쿖탎쪽훷튪퇘쾮볆뮮뺭볃쪱웚뗄닺좨쪵쿖쒣쪽ꎬ헢룶쒣쪽뗄믹놾쳘헷캪ꎺ춨맽헷쫕만뚨뗄ꆢ럇뎣뗍솮뗄풴쮰뫍뿳닺풴늹뎥럑살쪵쿖쯹폐좨ꆣ헢튻쒣쪽폫떱뷱풴샠닺욷볛룱늻뛏짏헇ꆢ좫쏦뾪럅뗄쫐뎡뺭볃쪱듺틑뺭룱룱늻죫ꎺ쯼늻떫쪹맺볒뺭볃샻틦퇏훘쇷쪧ꎬ뛸쟒퓬돉쇋퇏훘싒뾪닉뫍뺪죋뗄풴샋럑ꆣ놾죋죏캪ꎬ펦룄뇤뿳닺풴맺볒쯹폐좨뗄쪵쿖랽쪽ꎬ붫풴쮰폫뿳닺풴늹뎥럑뫏늢붨솢좨샻뷰훆뛈ꎬ늢내틑첽쏷뗄풴뒢솿볆헷ꆣ놾컄붨틩ꎬ펦룃ퟜ뷡2006쓪즽컷쎺첿풴볓헷뿳닺풴닉뿳좨볛뿮뗄쫔뗣릤ퟷꎬ퓚랶캧짏삩듳떽웤쯻샠뇰뗄뿳닺풴벰웤쯻뗘쟸ꎬ늢붫볓헷뗄닉뿳좨볛뿮룼룄캪좨샻뷰ꎬퟮ훕붨솢웰폐떯탔뗄좨샻뷰쒣쪽살좫쏦쪵쿖풴뗄폐뎥햼폐폫뾪닉ꆣ 퓚뿳닺풴쯹폐좨쪵쿖훆뛈룄룯맽돌훐ퟮ벬쫖뗄컊쳢쫇ꎺ뛔폚좨샻뷰뗄헷쫕쎻폐만뚨뗄뇪ힼꆢ쎻폐만뚨뗄쒣탍뿉틔쳗폃ꎬ퓚훰늽뷡쫸뿳닺풴컞뎥햼폃ꆢ솮볛햼폃뗄믹놾쮼슷쿂ꎬ놾컄쫗쿈닻쫶쇋좨샻뷰뗄볛횵릹돉ꎬ쯦뫳뷩짜뫍움볛쇋쿖뷗뛎맺볊짏쇷탐뗄벸훖좨샻뷰뗄움볛쒣탍ꎬ쳡돶쇋펦룃닉폃뷰죚톧믲닆컱톧훐뗄뇤늨뚯싊뗄쪵컯웚좨뚨볛쒣탍뛔좨샻뷰뷸탐움맀ꎬ늢쟒춨맽뛔뷼벸쪮쓪살쪯폍풴뗄볛룱쇏럖컶쇋쒣탍뗄쫊폃탔ꎬퟮ뫳퓚췆맣뿳닺풴좨샻뷰훆뛈뗄쪵볊컊쳢짏ꎬ놾죋쳡돶쇋헾뢮헷쫕좨샻뷰뗄뻟쳥랽쪽벰웳튵죧뫎쫊펦좨샻뷰훆뛈ꆣ 맘볼듊ꎺ좨샻뷰훆뛈ꎬ볛횵릹돉ꎬ뇤늨뚯싊ꎬ쪵컯웚좨쒣탍 I
Abstract RESEARCH ON MINERAL RESOURCES ROYALTY SYSTEM ABSTRACT In China's rapid economic development today, mineral resources as an important industrial raw materials and industrial energy play an increasingly important role. In 2005, the GDP per One million costs tons; At the first half of 2006, one unit GDP energy consumption has increased by percent. In recent years, compared With the rapid growth demand for mineral resources, China's mineral resources’ over-exploitation, the continuous deterioration of the ecological environment and the lower extraction rate Of mineral resources makes us have to reconsider the reasonableness of the property system, the efficiency of the tax system in the energy resource allocation and the efficiency of the resource utilization. This article indicates the gap of the efficiency of resources utilization between the advanced countries and our country, and l try my best to find the reason of that gap from the analysis of the resources property system and the method of realization. China's mineral resources belongs to nation, the main realization form of property rights is the same as the old planned economy period, the model basic characteristics is the lower taxes and the mineral resources compensation, the fixed taxes and the mineral resources compensation. This model has been incompatible with the rising of the today's resource prices, and it’s not only make the loss of the state's benefit, but also have caused serious chaos exploitation and astonishing waste of resources. I think we should change the realization model of nation’s resources ownership, and Combine with the resources compensation and resources tax to establish the Royalty system and the royalty levied by the proven resource reserves. This paper suggested that we should conclude the shanxi’s experience that levying Mining right price, expanding to other types of mineral resources and other areas, while change the Mining right price to Royalty. Constantly summing up experience, we should establish the flexible Royalty model to fully realize the resources’ mining and paid Possession. In the reform of mining resources ownership, the most difficult problem is that the Royalty system has no fixed model which can solve out how much Royalty should be levied. At the background of ending unpaid or cheap mining resources, the paper firstly expounds the value composure of the Royalty, and then introduces and evaluates the current evaluation model Of Royalty, then propose that we should use the model of real option that the fluctuation is variable to evaluate the Royalty, at last analysis the applicability of the model from the crude oil price trend. In addition, this paper puts forward several policy proposals that government how to carry out the Royalty system and the enterprises how to adapt to Royalty system actually. II
Abstract Key Words: royalty system, composure of the value, variable fluctuation, real option model III
뛀뒴탔짹쏷 놾죋횣훘짹쏷ꎺ쯹돊붻뗄톧캻싛컄쫇컒룶죋퓚떼쪦횸떼쿂뷸탐뗄퇐뺿릤ퟷ벰좡뗃뗄퇐뺿돉맻ꆣ뺡컒쯹횪ꎬ돽쇋컄훐쳘뇰볓틔뇪힢뫍훂킻뗄뗘랽췢ꎬ싛컄훐늻냼몬웤쯻죋틑뺭랢뇭뫍킴뗄퇐뺿돉맻ꎬ튲늻냼몬캪믱뗃뮪뚫붻춨듳톧믲웤쯻뷌폽믺릹뗄톧캻믲횤쫩쯹쪹폃맽뗄닄쇏ꆣ폫컒튻춬릤ퟷ뗄춬횾뛔놾퇐뺿쯹ퟶ뗄죎뫎릱쿗뻹틑퓚싛컄훐ퟷ쇋쏷좷뗄쮵쏷늢뇭쪾쇋킻틢ꆣ 놾죋잩쏻_______________죕웚____________ 맘폚싛컄쪹폃쫚좨뗄쮵쏷 놾죋췪좫쇋뷢뮪뚫붻춨듳톧폐맘놣쇴ꆢ쪹폃톧캻싛컄뗄맦뚨ꎬ벴ꎺ톧킣폐좨놣쇴쯍붻싛컄뗄뢴펡볾ꎬ퓊탭싛컄놻닩퓄뫍뷨퓄ꆣ톧킣뿉틔릫늼싛컄뗄좫늿믲늿럖쓚죝ꎬ뿉틔닉폃펰펡ꆢ쯵펡믲웤쯻뢴훆쫖뛎놣듦싛컄ꆣ 놣쏜뗄싛컄퓚뷢쏜뫳ퟱ쫘듋맦뚨ꎬ놾싛컄놣쏜웚X쓪ꆣ 놾죋잩쏻____________떼쪦잩쏻__________죕웚___________
뗚튻헂 탷싛 뗚튻헂 탷싛 잰퇔 뿳닺풴ퟷ캪튻훖늻뿉퓙짺뗄쾡좱풴ꎬ헽퓚쏦쇙죧벢쯆뿊뗄탨쟳ꆣ몣췥햽헹ꆢ틁삭뿋햽헹뗄놳뫳ꎬ싓뛡쪯폍풴뗄헦쏦쒿헑좻죴뷒ꆣ뻍맺쓚뛸퇔ꎬ컒맺풴ퟜ솿럡뢻ꎬ떫쫇35훖뿳닺풴죋뻹햼폐솿뷶캪좫쟲죋뻹햼폐솿뗄60%ꎻ쯦ퟅ뺭볃뗄랢햹ꎬ컒맺듳ퟚ뿳닺뛔췢틀듦뛈톸쯙쳡룟ꎬ컒맺춭쿻럑뗄40%ꆢ쪯폍쿻럑뗄1/3ꆢ볘퇎쿻럑뗄90%틔짏뚼탨틀삵뷸뿚ꎬ2006쓪컒맺풭폍뷸뿚솿캪14518췲뛖ꎬ퓶쯙평2005쓪뗄ꎥ듳럹쳡룟훁ꎥꎬ뷚쓜붵뫄ꆢ풴폐킧샻폃ꎬ틑뺭돉캪돖탸랢햹뗄뇘평횮슷ꆣ 컒맺쪵탐뿳닺풴맺볒쯹폐훆ꎬ떫퓚뫜뎤튻뛎쪱볤쓚ꎬ맺볒쯹폐좨훆뛈놻탐헾짳엺훆췟뷢듹뺡ꎬ믲놻짔뫳뗄솮볛쪹폃훆쯹룮쇑ꆣ쪵볊짏ꎬ퓚2002쓪8퓂컒맺쫗듎뷰뿳닉뿳좨엄싴횮잰ꎬ맺볒쯹폐뗄닉뿳웳튵벰늿럖쮽폐닉뿳훷춨맽탐헾짳엺뗄랽쪽폐뎥믱뗃닉뿳좨ꎬ맺볒뿳닺풴뗄쯹폐좨훷튪춨맽쫕좡첽뿳좨볛뿮ꆢ닉뿳좨볛뿮ꆢ풴쮰뫍뿳닺풴늹뎥럑살쪵쿖ꆣ1996쓪컒맺탞룄뫳뗄ꆶ훐뮪죋쏱릲뫍맺뿳닺풴램ꆷ뗚죽쳵맦뚨:뿳닺풴쫴폚맺볒쯹폐ꎬ평맺컱풺탐쪹맺볒뛔뿳닺풴뗄쯹폐좨ꆣ뗘뇭믲헟뗘쿂뗄뿳닺풴뗄맺볒쯹폐좨ꎬ늻틲웤쯹틀뢽뗄췁뗘뗄쯹폐좨믲헟쪹폃좨뗄늻춬뛸룄뇤ꎻ뾱닩ꆢ뾪닉뿳닺풴ꎬ뇘탫틀램럖뇰짪쟫ꆢ뺭엺ힼ좡뗃첽뿳좨ꆢ닉뿳좨ꎬ늢냬샭뗇볇ꆣ뗚컥쳵맦뚨ꎺ맺볒쪵탐첽뿳좨ꆢ닉뿳좨폐뎥좡뗃뗄훆뛈ꎻ떫쫇ꎬ맺볒뛔첽뿳좨ꆢ닉뿳좨폐뎥좡뗃뗄럑폃ꎬ뿉틔룹뻝늻춬쟩뿶맦뚨폨틔복뷉ꆢ쏢뷉ꎬ뻟쳥냬램뫍쪵쪩늽훨평맺컱풺맦뚨ꆣ뾪닉뿳닺풴ꎬ뇘탫내헕맺볒폐맘맦뚨뷉쓉풴쮰뫍풴늹뎥럑ꆣ 듓쿖헽횴탐뗄1996쓪냤늼뗄뿳닺풴램살뾴ꎬ쯦ퟅ맺쓚췢뺭볃뮷뺳뗄뇤뮯ꎬ훰붥쿔쿖틔쿂뇗뛋ꎺ ꎨ1ꎩ풴쮰럑맽뗍ꎬ컞램돤럖놣헏맺볒풴쯹폐좨ꆣ 뷼쓪살ꎬ훐맺ꆢ펡뛈ꆢ냍컷ꆢ뛭싞쮹뗈맺뺭볃돶쿖잿뺢퓶뎤ꎬ폈웤쫇컒맺뷸죫릤튵뮯훐웚뷗뛎뛔풴탨쟳뗄뿬쯙퓶뎤쪹뗃좫쟲풴릩쟳뷴헅ꎬ죧맺볊쪯폍볛룱듓1988쓪훁1999쓪뗄10-20쏀풪/춰뗄볛룱짏헇훁쿖퓚뗄95쏀풪쎿춰뗄볛룱ꎬ컒맺뿳닺풴닺욷2002-2005쓪돶뎧볛룱ퟟ쫆춼죧춼1-1ꆣ(ퟝ훡=놾쓪풴볛룱*100/짏쓪풴볛룱) 평춼1-1뿉틔뾴돶맺쓚뗄뿳닺풴볛룱돽뫚즫폐즫뷰쫴췢ꎬ2002쓪-2005쓪볛룱돊훰쓪짏헇쟷쫆ꎬ늢쟒퓶럹훰쓪쳡룟ꎬ폈웤쫇쪯폍뫍쳬좻웸탐튵2005쓪릤튵욷돶뎧볛룱뇈짏쓪쳡룟쇋%. 듓춼1-2닉톡튵룷샠웳튵뗄ퟜ닺릱쿗싊ꏛꎨ샻죳ퟜ뛮+쮰뷰ퟜ뛮+샻쾢횧돶ꎩ/욽뻹닺ퟜ뛮×100%ꎩꏝ살뾴ꎬ룷샠뿳닺웳튵뗄ퟜ닺릱쿗싊쏷쿔룟폚좫맺욽뻹쮮욽ꎬ폈웤쫇쪯폍뫍쳬좻웸탐튵ꎬ2005쓪닺ퟜ닺릱쿗싊듯떽쇋%,뛸좫맺욽뻹뗄ퟜ닺릱쿗 2
뗚튻헂 탷싛 싊캪%ꎬ쎺첿볛룱뎤웚쫜뗧쎺볛룱ꆢ닺쓜맽쪤뗈뗄훆풼2004쓪틔잰뗄ퟜ닺믘놨싊튻횱뗍폚좫맺쮮욽ꎬ떫쫇쯦ퟅ풴탨쟳뗄퓶뎤폚2005쓪ퟜ닺믘놨싊튲뎬맽쇋욽뻹쮮욽ꆣ 160140쎺첿뾪닉뫍쾴톡120튵100쪯폍뫍쳬좻웸뾪닉튵80뫚즫뷰쫴뿳닉톡튵60폐즫뷰쫴뿳닉톡40튵2002002200320042005 1춼1-1 뿳닺풴닺욷돶뎧볛룱ퟟ쫆춼 -1 The Figure Trend Of Mineral Resources Price 60좫맺욽뻹50쎺첿닉톡튵40쪯폍뫍쳬좻웸뾪30닉튵뫚즫뷰쫴뿳닉톡20튵10폐즫뷰쫴뿳닉톡튵0럇뷰쫴뿳닉톡튵89012345990000009900000011222222 2춼1-2 뿳튵웳튵뗄ퟜ닺믘놨싊 -2 The Total Return On Assets Of Mining Enterprise 틔짏쫽뻝뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ쯦ퟅ풴볛룱짏헇ꎬ퓚컒맺닉뿳탐튵웳튵뗄ퟜ닺믘놨싊튲톸쯙짏헇ꎬ쿖폐뗄풴쮰럑헷쫕럹뛈틑늻쓜뫜뫃뗘랴펳풴놾짭쯹뻟폐뗄볛횵ꎬ맺볒뗄뿳닺풴쯹폐좨쫕틦놻퇏훘뗍맀ꎬ퓬돉컒맺맺폐닺쇷쪧ꆣ 1 쫽뻝살ퟔꎺ2003쓪ꆪ2006쓪맺볒춳볆쓪본 2 쫽뻝살ퟔꎺ1999쓪ꆪ2006쓪맺볒춳볆쓪본 3
뗚튻헂 탷싛 ꎨ2ꎩ쿖탐풴쮰럑훆뛈ꎬ떼훂풴샻폃뗄뗍킧싊ꆣ퓚쿖뷗뛎풴닺욷탨쟳듳폚릩룸뗄뮷뺳쿂ꎬ뗍풴쮰럑훆뛈ꆢ닺좨훆뛈뗄늻쏷컺틔벰풴쮰내닺돶솿뚨뛮헷쫕ꆢ뿳닺풴늹뎥럑내쿺쫛뛮헷쫕뗄훆뛈ꎬ듙쪹닉뿳훷쫜뺭볃샻틦뗄쟷쪹뛔풴뗄뾪닉ꆰ닉뫱웺놡ꎬ닉틗웺쓑ꆱꎬ쪹풴퓚뾪닉뷗뛎뻍퓬돉쇋벫듳샋럑ꆣ2007쓪쓜풴삶욤쫩ꆶ2007훐맺쓜풴3랢햹놨룦ꆷ훐릫늼뗄튻쾵쇐쫽ퟖ쇮죋뒥쒿뺪탄ꎬ훐맺쎺첿믘닉싊캪30%늻ퟣ쫀뷧쿈뷸쮮욽뗄튻냫ꎬ즽컷쪡쫇훐맺ퟮ듳뗄쎺첿닺쟸ꎬ쎺첿욽뻹풴믘닉싊횻폐40%ퟳ폒ꎬ룃쪡뗄쿧헲쎺뿳믘닉싊뷶캪10%-20%ꎬ쎿췚1뛖쎺튪쿻뫄5뛖-20뛖풴ꆣ쏀맺ꆢ냄듳샻퇇ꆢ뗂맺ꆢ볓쓃듳뗈랢듯맺볒ꎬ풴믘쫕싊쓜듯떽80%ퟳ폒ꎬ쯻쏇쎿췚1뛖쎺횻쿻뫄뛖뛖풴ꆣ훐맺퓚1980쓪ꆪ2003쓪뗄23쓪볤ꎬ쎺첿풴훁짙샋럑쇋650틚뛖ꎬ내2003쓪좫쓪쎺첿뗄쿻뫄살뾴ꎬ헢킩쎺뿉틔폃40쓪. 놾죋죏캪,퓬돉컒맺풴퓚뾪닉뷗뛎뻍닺짺쇋뻞듳샋럑폫컒맺풴쮰럑훆뛈뫶쫓쇋풴놾짭볛룱폫닺좨훆뛈뗄늻쏷컺폐맘ꎬ쿖폐뗄풴쮰럑룄룯틑뺭떽쇋늻룄늻뿉뗄뗘늽쇋ꆣ 맺볒뗄뿳닺풴쮰럑룄룯쫔뗣쪼폚쎺첿풴럡뢻뗄듳쪡-즽컷쪡ꎬ2004쓪즽컷쪵탐쇋뿳닺풴폐뎥쫔뗣ꎬ내룷뿳즽웳튵뗄쪣폠뿉닉뒢솿헷쫕훷붹쎺풪/뛖ꆢ뚯솦쎺1풪/뛖뗄닉뿳좨볛뿮ꎬ퓚헢튻룄룯쫔뗣맽돌훐ꎬ즽컷쪡쎻폐룄뇤쿖폐뗄풴쮰ꆢ뿳닺풴늹뎥럑뗄헷쫕뇪ힼꎬ뛸쫇듓닉뿳좨폐뎥믱뗃뗄룄룯죫쫖ꎬ튪쟳뿳훷튻듎탔뷉쓉횮잰컞뎥믱뗃뗄닉뿳좨ꎬ쫔뗣좡뗃쇋솼뫃뗄킧맻ꎬ믘닉싊듓쫔뗣잰뗄30%쳡룟떽60%ꎬ벫듳뗘쳡룟쇋풴퓚뾪닉뷗뛎뗄샻폃싊ꎬ춬쪱튲평폚퓶볓쇋뗘랽닆헾쫕죫ꆢ캪뮷뺳훎샭뗄뷰쳡릩쇋놣헏ꆣ 퓚즽컷뗄풴쮰럑쫔뗣훐ꎬ쯤좻룄뇤쇋틔잰닉뿳좨컞뎥믱뗃뗄뻖쏦ꎬ뛔풴내뒢솿헷쫕닉뿳좨볛뿮ꎬ떫쫇풴쮰ꆢ뿳닺풴럑헕뎣헷쫕ꎬ볓헷뗄닉뿳좨뿮ꆢ풴쮰틔벰뿳닺풴늹뎥럑쫇럱듦퓚탔훊쿠춬뛸짨훃늻춬쮰훖뗄쟩뿶ꆢ뫏샭뗄닉뿳좨볛뿮떽뗗펦룃내쪲쎴뇪ힼ헷쫕쫇컒쏇퓚풴쮰럑룄룯맽돌훐벱탨뷢뻶뗄벬쫖쓑쳢ꎬ놾컄듓럖컶맺쓚췢뿳닺풴닺좨훆뛈벰웤쪵쿖랽쪽죫쫖,ퟜ뷡쇋뷼벸쓪살풴쮰럑랽쏦뗄룄룯,쳡돶쇋캴살풴쮰럑뗄룄룯랽쿲-붨솢폫풴뿉닉뒢솿쿠맒릳뗄좨샻뷰훆뛈ꎬ늢쳡돶놾죋죏캪뿉뫏샭움맀뿳닺풴좨샻뷰뗄쒣탍. 맺쓚췢뿳닺풴닺좨훆뛈벰웤쪵쿖랽쪽 뿳닺풴닺좨훆뛈냼삨솽룶닣듎뗄쓚죝ꎺ튻쫇뿳닺풴뗄쯹폐좨훆뛈ꎻ뛾쫇뿳닺풴뗄럖엤폫쪹폃훆뛈ꎬ헢튻닣듎쪵볊짏쫇쯹폐좨훆뛈뗄쪵쿖랽쪽ꆣ 뿳닺풴쯹폐좨훆뛈ꎬ훷튪쫇뷢뻶뿳닺풴뗄맩쫴컊쳢ꎬ쏷좷뿳닺풴쯹폐좨캪쮭쯹폐ꎬ쫇짺닺쇏쯹폐훆뗄ퟩ돉늿럖ꎬ튲쫇닺좨훆뛈뗄룹놾탔쓚죝ꎬ뻟폐맘볼탔ퟷ폃ꆣ 늻맽ꎬ벴뇣퓚쿠춬뗄쯹폐좨훆뛈쿂ꎬ닺좨쪵쿖랽쪽죔쓜랢믓뻞듳뗄펰쿬솦ꆣ틔뿳닺풴맺볒쯹폐훆캪샽ꎬ웤쪵쿖랽쪽훁짙폐죽훖쒣쪽ꎺ튻쫇ꎬ틔췪좫돉놾캪믹뒡뗄ꆰ좫쏦 3 살ퟔꎺ샮틣훐ꆢ탬뚧쏷ꎬꆶ2007쓪훐맺쓜풴랢햹놨룦ꆷꎬ훐맺짧믡뿆톧컄쿗돶냦짧 4
뗚튻헂 탷싛 쫐뎡뮯ꆱ뗄풴엤훃랽쪽ꎻ뛾쫇ꎬ늻볆돉놾뗄ꆰ뒿탐헾짳엺훆뛈ꆱꎻ죽쫇ꎬ뷩폚짏쫶솽훖훆뛈횮볤뗄ꆰ늻췪좫돉놾ꆢ늻췪좫쫐뎡뮯ꆱ뗄풴엤훃랽쪽ꆣ 훚쯹훜횪ꎬ닺좨훆뛈쫇뺭볃킧싊뗄믹뒡ꆣ뻍컒맺뿳닺풴훆뛈놾짭뛸퇔ꎬ쿖탐뿳닺풴엤훃훆뛈틑뺭떼훂쇋풴샻폃뗄뗍킧싊뫍맺볒샻틦뗄퇏훘슩쯰ꎬ틲듋룄룯쿖탐뿳닺풴엤훃훆뛈뿌늻죝뮺ꆣ듋췢ꎬ풴엤훃훆뛈룄룯폫짨볆맽돌훐ꎬ컒쏇뮹탨튪뒦샭쇭췢튻룶컊쳢ꎬ쓇뻍쫇퓚훆뛈뗄컈뚨탔폫뮷뺳뇤뮯훐쯹탨뗄떯탔횮볤뷸탐킭뗷ꆣ뇊헟죏캪ꎬ뒦샭헢튻컊쳢뗄맘볼퓚폚ꎬ짨볆튻룶퓌몬떯탔떫ퟜ쳥컈뚨뗄훆뛈탔뿲볜ꆣ헽쿱억쮹쯹퇔4ꎺꆰ튻룶훆뛈뿲볜뗄ퟜ쳥탔컈뚨쪹뗃뿧쪱볤뫍뿕볤뗄뢴퓓붻틗돉캪뿉쓜ꆣꆱ 맺쓚췢뿳닺풴뗄닺좨훆뛈 듓룷맺풴쯹폐훆쒣쪽살뾴ꎬ뿳닺풴쯹폐훆뛈쒣쪽듳쳥폐죽훖쒣쪽ꎺ ꎨ1ꎩ틔펢ꆢ쏀뗈맺캪듺뇭뗄췁뗘쯹폐헟쒣쪽 듓램싉짏맦뚨뿳닺풴캪췁뗘뗄ퟩ돉늿럖ꎬ쯹틔췁뗘쯹폐좨죋떱좻쿭폐췁뗘훐퓌님뗄뿳닺풴쯹폐좨ꎬ헾뢮뛔췁뗘쯹폐헟폐튻뚨뗄틖훆좨ꆣ쏀맺ꆢ펢맺쫇쫀뷧짏뿉쫽뗄벸룶냑뿳닺닆닺좨쫚폫쮽쿂뗄맺볒횮튻ꎬ퓚뗃뿋죸쮹훝믲뛭뿋삭뫉십훝뗄쮽죋닆닺쯹폐헟ꎬ튲쫇웤좫늿뗘쿂뿳닺좨뗄쯹폐헟ꎬ퓚쯻믲쯽죏캪뫏쫊쪱ꎬ뿉틔쯦틢뒦훃훼듦퓚뗘쿂뗄쪯폍뫍쳬좻웸ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ쏀맺뮹쫇폐42%뗄췁뗘쫇헆컕퓚솪냮뫍룷훝헾뢮쫖훐ꆣ퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂ꎬ뿳좨폫췁뗘쯹폐좨춬맩튻쳥ꎬ쎻폐램싉짏뗄돥춻ꎬ췁뗘쯹폐좨죋뿉틔내ퟔ벺뗄틢횾돶ퟢꆢ죃ꆢ뗖톺뿳좨ꎬ늢쟒펵폐뿳닺풴췪헻뗄햼폐ꆢ쪹폃ꆢ쫕틦ꆢ뒦훃뗄좨샻ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ틔죕ꆢ뗂뗈맺캪듺뇭뗄뿳닺풴쯹폐훆쒣쪽ꆣ뗂맺뗄ꆶ뿳님램ꆷ맦뚨ꎬ췁뗘쯹폐좨죋횻뛔틀뢽폚웤췁뗘뗄횸뚨훖샠뗄뿳님ꆢ뿳컯ꎨ죧췁ꆢ즳ퟓꆢ쪯춷ꎩ폐쿈햼뗄좨샻ꎬ웤쯻뿳님튻싉캪맺볒쯹폐ꎬ늢평맺볒뿳닺맜샭뻖냤랢뾱첽뾪닉탭뿉횤ꆢ믱룃탭뿉횤뗄죋ꎬ닅쓜뷸죫쳘뚨뗄뿳뎡뷸탐뾱첽뫍뾪랢ꆣ ꎨ3ꎩ틔램맺캪듺뇭뗄뿳닺풴맺볒쯹폐쳥쾵ꆣꆶ램맺뿳튵램ꆷ맦뚨ꎬ췁뗘쯹폐죋늻쿭폐쒳킩뗘쿂뿳님뾪닉좨샻ꎬ쯼쏇쫴폚맺볒ꎬ맺볒뿉ퟔ탐탐쪹믲쳘뇰탭뿉웤쯻죋탐쪹ꆣ횻폐슶쳬뿳닺맩췁뗘쯹폐좨죋쯹폐ꎬ떫뾪뻲믲붫슶쳬뿳닺닉뿳좨죃폚뗚죽죋죔탫춨듯탐헾쫚좨ꆣ헢킩맺볒냼삨ꎺ늣샻캬퇇ꆢ냍컷ꆢ훇샻ꆢ펡뛈쓡컷퇇ꆢ쏘슳뫍첩맺ꆣ퓚쒳킩맺볒ꎬ죧룧싗뇈퇇ꆢ볓쓉ꆢ냍믹쮹첹퓸퓊탭쒳킩뗘쟸폐쿞뗄쮽죋믲늿실쯹폐좨ꎬ떫쯦ퟅ뺭볃랢햹뚼붫헢훖풴뗄쯹폐좨쫕맩맺볒쯹폐ꆣ쪯폍풴럡뢻뗄룷훐뚫맺볒뷼쪮살튲듓쮽죋쫖훐뛡믘쇋풴뗄쯹폐좨ꎬ쫕맩맺볒쯹폐ꆣ 5 ꆶ훐뮪죋쏱릲뫍맺뿳닺풴램ꆷ맦뚨ꎬꆰ뿳닺풴쫴폚맺볒쯹폐ꎬ평맺컱풺탐쪹맺볒뛔뿳닺풴뗄쯹폐좨ꆣ뗘뇭믲뗘쿂뗄뿳닺풴뗄맺볒쯹폐좨ꎬ늻틲웤쯹틀뢽뗄췁뗘뗄쯹폐좨믲헟쪹폃좨뗄늻춬뛸룄뇤ꆣꆱ뿳닺풴뗄맺볒쯹폐훆뛈벰컒맺좨샻닣뫍좨샻뷡릹뗄뢴퓓탔뻶뚨쇋컒맺뗄뿳좨훆뛈퓚짨솢뫍퓋탐훐뗄뢴퓓ힴ뿶ꆣ 4 틽ퟔꎺ퇮맢뇳,ꆶ헾훎톧ꎺ듓맅뗤훷틥떽탂맅뗤훷틥ꆷꎬ뷌톧폫퇐뺿 2005 뗚9웚ꆣ 5 살ퟔꎺꆶ훐뮪죋쏱릲뫍맺뿳닺풴램ꆷꎬ뗚죽쳵뗚튻뿮ꎬ1996쓪냦 5
뗚튻헂 탷싛 맺쓚췢뿳닺풴뗄닺좨쪵쿖랽쪽 퓚쏷좷쇋뿳닺풴쯹폐좨뗄맩쫴컊쳢짏ꎬ쇭튻룶훆풼풴샻폃킧싊뗄훘튪틲쯘뻍쫇뿳닺풴닺좨쪵쿖랽쪽틔벰뻟쳥뗄쮰싊컊쳢ꆣ 튻 맺췢뿳닺풴뗄닺좨쪵쿖랽쪽 맺췢퇐뺿뿳닺풴쮰럑컊쳢ꎬ웤샭싛틀뻝훷튪폐ꆰ뿳닺풴볛횵싛ꆱꆢꆰ뇟볊킧폃볛횵싛ꆱꆢꆰ뻹뫢볛룱샭싛ꆱ뫍ꆰ뗘ퟢ싛ꆱꎬ맺췢뿳튵믮뚯뗄닺짺튲쫇뺭샺쇋튻룶싾뎤뗄맽돌닅탎돉쇋튻룶틔좨샻뷰캪뫋탄뗄쮰럑훆뛈ꎬ듙뷸쇋뿳닺뗄랢햹ꎬ맺췢뗄뿳튵뾪닉뗄믘닉싊욽뻹횸뇪뇈컒맺룟20%ꎬ풴퓚쿖폐뗄벼쫵쮮욽짏뗃떽쇋폐킧뗄샻폃ꆣ 룷맺풴쮰럑훆뛈쳥쾵뗄짨훃듦퓚뫜듳뗄늻춬ꎬ룹뻝맺췁풴늿탅쾢풺뛔쫀뷧짏81룶쫐뎡뺭볃맺볒뫍뗘쟸뿳닺풴쮰럑훆뛈뗄쾵춳뗷닩ꎬ헢킩맺볒훷튪쪵탐뗄쫇좨샻뷰훆뛈ꆣ ꎨ튻ꎩ 좨샻뷰 좨샻뷰뗄펢컄Royalty 튻듊ꎬ퓚훐쫀볍싞십훐ꎬ틑뺭돶쿖쇋좨샻뷰튻듊ꎬ퓚떱쪱쯼뗄놾틢쫇뿳닺풴캪췵쫒쯹폐ꎬ뾪닉뿳닺풴튪쿲췵쫒쿗뷰ꎬ늢쟒웤뷉쓉랽쪽쿠뛔뷏캪볲떥ꎬ벴1/8뗄뗘ퟢ싊-쯹닉돶뗄뿳닺붻룸췵쫒1/8ꆣ쿖듺쫐뎡뺭볃맺볒쯹헷쫕뗄좨샻뷰ꎬ믹놾죔놣쇴쇋웤풭살뗄몬틥ꎬ쯼쫇뿳튵좨죋뾪닉뫍뫄뷟쇋뿳닺풴쯹폐좨죋뗄늻뿉퓙짺뗄뿳닺풴뛸횧뢶뗄럑폃ꆣ좨샻뷰쫇뗷헻뿳닺풴쯹폐좨죋폫뿳닺풴뾪닉죋ꎨ닉뿳좨죋ꎩ횮볤뗄램싉맘쾵ꎬ쯼늻럖풴쳵볾폅쇓좫늿헷쫕ꎬ틀뻝뗘ퟢ샭싛ꎬ 쫴폚뻸뛔뗘ퟢꆣ룹뻝맺췁늿탅쾢풺ꆶ쫐뎡뺭볃맺볒좨샻뷰훆뛈ꆷ뗷퇐놨룦ꎨ1999쓪6퓂ꎩꎬ쫀뷧랶캧쓚ꎬ쪵탐좨샻뷰훆뛈뗄맺볒폐ꎺ냄듳샻퇇ꆢ쏀맺ꆢ볓쓃듳ꆢ펡뛈쓡컷퇇ꆢ뗂맺ꆢ얲췾ꆢ펢맺ꆢ췁뛺웤ꆢ펡뛈ꆢ십살컷퇇ꆢ첩맺ꆢ틁샊ꆢ탂컷삼ꆢ냍늼탂벸쓚퇇ꆢ낢룹춢ꆢ룧싗뇈퇇ꆢ쓏럇ꆢ컚룉듯ꆢ뾦싳슡뗈맺ꎻ웤훐ꎬ풴럡뢻뗄훐뚫뗈뗘뫍룷맺볒ꆢ뿳닺풴쿠뛔럡뢻뗄뛭싞쮹뛔뾪닉맺볒쯹폐뿳닺풴튲탨횧뢶ꆰ뗘쿂풴쪹폃좨뢶럑ꆱꎬ죕놾뛔뾪닉뿳닺풴뗄뿳튵웳튵튲헷쫕ꆰ뿳튵쮰ꆱꎬ퓚탔훊짏뚼쿠떱폚믱뗃뿳닺풴뾪닉좨뛸횧뢶뗄뻸뛔뗘ퟢꆣ 뛔폚좨샻뷰뗄헷쫕랽쪽ꎬ듳뛠쫽맺볒닉좡듓볛볆헷ꎨ죧ꎺ솪냮헾뢮맦뚨쎺뿳내ퟮ뗍듓볛럑싊헷쫕ꎩꆢ듓솿볆헷ꎬ뿳닺풴뗄좨샻뷰럑싊뚼놣돖퓚2%-8%횮볤ꆣ뛔폚쯹헷쫕뗄좨샻뷰뗄쪹폃ꎬ늻춬뗄맺볒튲늻뺡쿠춬ꆣ튻냣쟩뿶쿂ꎬ돽튻늿럖ퟷ캪맺볒닆헾쫕죫췢ꎬ뮹럖룸뿳뒲쯹퓚뗘뗄뗘랽헾뢮튻늿럖ꎬ뮹폐뷏듳튻늿럖ퟷ캪뿳닺풴뾱달ꆢ뾪랢맜샭틔벰뮷뺳놣뮤ꆢ풴놣뮤뗈믮뚯뗄믹뷰ꆣ룷맺뗄좨샻뷰헷쫕뇈싊볻뇭1-1 ꎨ뛾ꎩ 뿳튵좨ퟢ뷰ꎨ믲돆뿳튵좨쪹폃럑ꆢ뿳튵좨돶죃뷰ꎩ 뿳튵좨ퟢ뷰ꎬ쫇횸뿳튵좨죋캪좡뗃뿳튵좨뛸쿲맺볒횧뢶뗄럑폃ꎬ쯼뗷헻뗄쫇맺볒폫뿳튵좨죋횮볤뗄뺭볃맘쾵ꆣ튻냣룹뻝뿳튵믮뚯뗄샠탍ꎨ뾱닩ꎬ움볛ꎬ믲돆횮캪놣쇴ퟢ풼ꎬ닉뿳ꎩ내쯹햼췁뗘쏦믽쫕럑ꆣ뿳튵좨ퟢ뷰쳥쿖뗄쫇맺볒폫뿳튵좨죋횮볤뗄뺭볃맘쾵ꎬ벴맄샸뿳튵좨죋뺡뿉쓜짙햼뗘ꎬ뺡뿉쓜뿬뗘춨맽뾱닩릤ퟷ췋돶ퟔ벺죏캪쎻폐풶뺰뗄뗘쟸ꎬ 6
뗚튻헂 탷싛 튻킩맺볒횮쯹틔맦뚨뿳튵좨ퟢ뷰훰쓪뗝퓶ꎬ헽쫇돶폚헢튻뾼싇ꆣ퓚맺볊뿳튵뷧듦퓚솽훖죏쪶ꎺ튻훖맛뗣죏캪ꎬ뿳튵좨ퟢ뷰랴펳뗄쫇ꆰ뿳뗘ퟢꆱ뗄룅쓮ꆣ쯤좻쫇내헕쯹햼췁뗘쏦믽헷쫕ꎬ떫쯼폫췁뗘좨컞맘ꎬ뛸쫇뿳뗘ퟢ뷰ꆣ췁뗘ퟢ뷰쫇뛔뗘뇭뗄햼폃ꎬ쫇욽쏦뗄룅쓮ꎬ뛸뗘뇭좨뫍뗘쿂좨쫇럖샫뗄ꎬ 뿳뗘ퟢ뷰쫇내햼폃뗘쿂뗄몬뿳뿕볤헷쫕뗄ꎬ쫇솢쳥뗄룅쓮ꎬ튲쫇풴폚뿳닺풴쯹폐좨뗄ꎬ죧ꎺ뛭싞쮹벰웤뛀솪쳥맺볒ꎻ쇭튻훖맛뗣죏캪ꎬ뿳튵좨ퟢ뷰쫇좨샻뷰뗄튻훖쳘쫢탎쪽믲늹돤ꆣ닉뿳좨죋뾪쪼짺닺횮뫳헷쫕좨샻뷰ꎬ떫퓚짐캴짺닺쪱ꎨ냼삨퓚뾱닩웚ꎩ헷쫕ퟢ뷰ꆣ죧쏀맺ꎬ짪쟫좡뗃쇋뿳튵좨횮뫳ꎬ벴탫횧뢶ퟢ뷰ꎨ솪냮릫릲췁뗘쏀풪/펢쒶.쓪ꎩ뾪쪼짺닺뫳늻퓙뷉쓉ퟢ뷰ꎬ뛸튪뷉쓉좨샻뷰ꆣ 6뇭1-1 룷맺좨샻뷰헷쫕뇈싊ꎨ떥캻ꎺ%ꎩ 뫚즫 폐즫 쾡폐 맳뷰럅짤놦뮯릤붨쪯폍 쎺첿 웤쫴 탔뿳쪯ꆢ뿳닺닄쯻 뷰쫴 뷰쫴 뷰쫴 쳬좻웸 닺욷럇뷰룕뷰쪯 쫴쏀쳺ꎺ5 5 - 101510 쇲ꎺ듓12ꎮ5 슶닉ꎺ듓맺 솿 솿헷헷쇗ꎺ5뺮닉ꎺ쫕쫕8 냄쳺쏌ꎺ-5 2, 510 5듳; 샻웤쯻ꎺ 퇇 5 틁4 4 4 4 44 4 5- 4 -샊 쒫쳺5 5 7 55 5-75- 5 5컷쏌ꎺ 룧 ꎨ죽ꎩ 풴ퟢ뷰쮰 캪쇋쪹맺볒뿳닺풴쯹폐좨죋듓뿳닺풴뾪랢훐뗃떽룼뫏샭뗄쫕죫ꎬ쒿잰퓚쫀뷧랶캧쓚듳풼폐튻냫틔짏뗄맺볒ꎬ퓚헷쫕좨샻뷰쪱ꎬ볈뾼싇뻸뛔뗘ퟢꎬ튲뾼싇벶닮뗘ퟢꆣ풴ퟢ뷰쮰놾훊짏튲쫇풴폚뿳닺풴쯹폐좨뗄ꎬ쫇닉뿳좨죋틲뾪닉풴?뢳쳘뇰뫃ꆢ쓜닺짺뎬뛮쫕틦뗄뿳닺뗘뛸뛔쯹폐좨죋뗄횧뢶ꆣ퓚맺볊뿳튵뷧ꎬ죋쏇붫헢훖풴ퟢ뷰쮰샭뷢캪좨샻뷰뗄튻훖쳘쫢탎쪽ꎬ퓚뻟쳥뗄볆헷짏ꎬ쯼샠쯆폚튻훖뗝뷸뗄쯹뗃쮰ꆣ쿁틥뗄풴ퟢ뷰쮰ꎬ냼몬3룶훷튪틲쯘ꎺ햤삸쫕틦싊ꆢ쮰싊믲헷쫕뇈싊ꆢ뿉뿛복횧돶ꆣ떱닉뿳좨죋쪵쿖쇋햤삸쫕틦뫳ꎬ닅뾪쪼뷉쓉풴ퟢ뷰쮰ꆣ평듋뿉볻ꎬ풴ퟢ뷰늻쫇뛔쯹폐뗄뿳즽뚼헷쫕ꎬ뛸쫇뛔뿳즽웳튵뎬맽믹놾뗄춶쫕틦쮮욽틔짏뗄샻죳뛸뾪헷뗄쮰훖ꎬ웤쒿뗄퓚폚 6 ퟔ쇏ꎺ믎삤ꎺꆰ싛뿳닺풴좨샻뷰훆뛈뗄쪵쪩ꆱꎬꆶ쎺첿뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ2003쓪4퓂뗚4웚 7
뗚튻헂 탷싛 춨맽맺볒뗄룉풤ꎬ뗷뷚뿳즽웳튵틲풴?뢳폅쫆뗈ퟔ좻쳵볾뗄늻춬뛸퓬돉뗄닉뿳죋쫕틦뗄쿔훸닮뻠ꎬ뒴퓬닉뿳좨죋퓚춬뗈쳵볾쿂릫욽뺺헹뗄뮷뺳ꆣ ꎨ쯄ꎩ 풴뫄뷟늹쳹ꎨ뢺좨샻뷰ꎩ 풴뫄뷟샭싛닺짺폚짏쫀볍70쓪듺컷랽뛔뫄뷟탔풴뗄뺭볃톧퇐뺿ꎬ풴뫄뷟늹쳹훆뛈ꎬퟮ퓧쪼폚쏀맺ꎬ쫇횸쎿룶쓉쮰쓪뛈듓뺻샻죳훐뿛돽튻늿룸폍쳯ꆢ뿳즽뗄쯹폐죋믲뺭펪죋ꎨ뿳튵좨죋ꎩꎬ폃폚톰헒탂뿳쳥ꎬ틔쳦듺헽퓚뫄뷟뗄뿳쳥ꆣ뫄뷟늹쳹쫇ퟔ좻풴릤튵뛀폐뗄늹쳹ꆣ 평듋뿉볻ꎬ뫄뷟늹쳹폫좨샻뷰쫇뷘좻쿠랴뗄솽룶룅쓮ꆣ떫헢솽룶룅쓮뗄믹뒡좴쫇쿠춬뗄ꎬ벴뿳닺풴쫇튻훖늻뿉퓙짺뗄뿉뫄뷟풴ꆣ웤늻춬뗣퓚폚ꎬ좨샻뷰쫇틲횮뛸늹뎥룸뿳닺쯹폐좨죋ꎨ튻냣쫇맺볒ꎩ뗄ꎬ뛸뫄뷟늹쳹쫇틲횮뛸늹뎥룸뿳튵좨죋뗄ꆣ틲듋ꎬ헢훖늹쳹쪵볊짏쫇튻훖뢺좨샻뷰ꎬ쯼ퟷ캪튻훖뛔닉뿳뗄늹뎥폐킧뗘붵뗍쇋뿳튵좨죋쯹돐쫜뗄쮰뢺ꆣ 7뇭 틔쿂쫇튻킩뿳닺짺닺맺릫쮾쮰훆훐뫄뷟늹쳹훆뛈 맺볒 뫄뷟늹쳹훆뛈 볓쓃듳 뛔폚뿳튵짺닺뾪랢ꆢ닉뿳뫍쒳붨훾뿉뛔솪냮쮰짪쟫믱뗃뫄뷟늹쳹 맧퇇쓇 내헕맧쓚헾쫕죫늿엺ힼ뗄뇈싊뛔풴뗄뫄뷟뷸탐늹쳹 펡뛈쓡컷퇇 틔닺솿떥캻램볆쯣닉뿳돉놾뗄늹쳹ꎬ돽폍웸릤튵췢쎿쓪늻뎬맽20% 십살컷퇇 뫄뷟늹쳹춶죫퓚뿳즽럾컱쓪쿞쓚랢짺뗄횧돶ꎬ랽램쫇붫웚쒩놾횧돶뗄닺횵돽틔헢튻쪱웚뾪쪼쪱뿳즽뗄쪣폠쪹폃쓪쿞 뷲냍늼캤 쯹쿺쫛뗄뿳닺쿺쫛뗄쎫쿺쫛횵뗄5%뫄뷟늹쳹ꎻ뷰믲틸늹쳹캪볛횵뗄150/a 쏀맺 쿺쫛쫕죫뿛돽룷훖럑폃벰쮰뷰뫳폠뛮뗄50% ꎨ컥ꎩ 뫬샻 뫬샻쫇쒳킩맺볒캪쇋벫듳쿞뛈뗘놣뮤뿳닺풴쯹폐좨죋뗄샻틦ꎬ뛔쒳킩쫕틦룟뗄뿳훖ꎬ퓚쫚죃뿳튵좨쪱튻듎탔쫕좡믲럖웚쫕좡뗄쳥쿖벶닮쫕틦럖엤뗄럑폃ꎬ뛔폚튻킩잰뺰뷏캪쏷샊뗄뿳뗘ꎬ퓚쫚폨뿳튵좨쪱뻍튪쟳닉뿳훷뷉쓉튻늿럖ꎬ뻟쳥뷰뛮좡뻶폚뿳튵좨헐뇪엄싴뗄뷡맻ꎬ죧쏀맺ꎬ뛔튻킩잰뺰쏷샊뗘쟸뗄뿳닺풴ꎬ웤뿳튵좨뗄돶죃랽쪽쫇쿖뷰뫬샻헐뇪훆뛈ꎬ헢훖뫬샻쫕죫퓚쏀맺튻뛈퓸쿠떱뿉맛ꎬ쳘뇰쫇퓚솽듎쪯폍캣믺웚볤ꎬ뷼벸쓪쏀맺쎿쓪뗄뫬샻쫕죫퓚5-10틚쏀풪횮볤ꆣ떫쫇퓚튻킩맺볒ꎬ뫬샻쫇뿳즽웳튵퓚횧뢶좨샻뷰쪱튻늢횧뢶뗄ꎬ죧냄듳샻퇇탂쓏뛻쪿훝맦뚨뫬샻뻍쫇횧뢶뎬돶램싉맦뚨뇈싊뗄좨샻뷰ꎬ죧ꎬ뾪닉늬ퟥ뷰쫴ꎬ램싉맦뚨탫내4%뗄뿳즽붻믵볛룱뷉쓉좨샻뷰ꎬ죴춶뇪죋풸횧뢶6%뗄좨샻뷰ꎬ헢뎬돶늿럖뗄2%뻍쫇뫬샻ꆣ 춨맽뛔뿳튵랢듯맺볒뿳닺풴쮰럑훆뛈뗄럖컶뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ맺췢뿳튵쮰럑훆뛈짨볆볲떥ꎬ벫듳뗘캬뮤쇋맺볒풴쯹폐헟좨틦ꎬ늢춨맽뫏샭뗄훆뛈짨볆뗷뷚쇋풴뾪닉맽돌훐 7 ퟔ쇏ꎺ맺췁늿탅쾢풺ꆶ쫐뎡뺭볃맺볒좨샻뷰훆뛈ꆷ뗷퇐놨룦ꎨ1999쓪6퓂ꎩ 8
뗚튻헂 탷싛 뗄뎬뛮쫕틦ꎬ탎쇋튻룶릫욽ꆢ뫏샭뗄뺺헹뮷뺳ꎬ폐샻폚뿳튵뗄뫏샭뾪닉ꎬ컼쓉뷰ꆣ 뛾 컒맺뿳닺풴닺좨쪵쿖랽쪽 탂훐맺돉솢틔살ꎬ컒맺뗄뿳닺풴쪵쿖쇋듓컞뎥떽폐뎥뗄뿧풽ꎬ뿳닺풴쮰럑훆뛈훷튪뺭샺쇋죽룶뷗뛎ꎺ ꎨ튻ꎩ 컞뎥뾪닉뷗뛎 듓1949쓪탂훐맺돉솢틔살훁짏쫀볍냋쪮쓪듺ꎬ컒맺쪵탐뗄뚼쫇뿳닺풴뗄컞뎥뾪닉훆뛈ꎬ훷튪쫇틔쿂쮼쿫폫쳥훆뗄쫸뢿ꎬ튻쫇십뿋쮼샍뚯볛횵싛뗄컳뷢ꎬ뫶쫓쇋ퟔ좻풴퓚뒴퓬짧믡닆뢻훐뗄ퟷ폃ꎬ죏캪ꆰ샍뚯뒴퓬튻쟐ꆱꎬ뿍맛짏쿝죫쇋ꆰ샍뚯닆뢻싛ꆱ뗄컳쟸ꎻ뛾쫇뛔쯕솪쒣쪽뗄헕냡ꎻ죽쫇컒맺퓚볆뮮뺭볃쳥훆쿂ꎬ뿳튵쇬폲믹놾짏쫇맺폐훆튻춳쳬쿂ꎬ뿳닺풴뗄쯹폐헟ꆢ짺닺헟뫍쿻럑헟뚼쫇튻볒죋ꎬ쎻폐뇘튪뮮쟥룷ퟔ늻춬뗄닆닺좨샻ꆣ ꎨ뛾ꎩ 폐뎥뾪닉뷗뛎 1 뗚튻듺풴쮰훆 1982쓪1퓂ꎬ맺컱풺랢늼쇋ꆶ훐뮪죋쏱릲뫍맺뛔췢뫏ퟷ뾪닉몣퇳쪯폍풴쳵샽ꆷꎬ웤훐뗚뻅쳵맦뚨ꎺꆰ닎폫뫏ퟷ뾪닉몣퇳쪯폍풴뗄훐맺웳튵ꆢ췢맺웳튵ꎬ뚼펦떱틀램뷉쓉ꆰ뿳쟸쪹폃럑ꆱꎨ냼삨ꎺ첽뿳좨쪹폃럑뫍닉뿳좨쪹폃럑ꎩꎬ듓탔훊짏뾴ꎬ쫇뛔첽ꆢ닉뿳웳튵햼폃쇋맺볒쯹폐뗄뿳뗘뛸내햼폃쏦믽쫕좡뗄럑폃ꎬ헢튲쫇풴폚맺볒뛔뿳닺풴뗄쯹폐좨뗄ꎬ뿉틔뾴ퟷ쫇폐뎥뾪닉뗄쏈톿ꎬ쫇컒맺뿳닺풴닆닺좨샻훆뛈쿲맺볊맟샽뾿뷼쪵탐폐뎥뾪닉뗄웰늽ꆣ 1984쓪10퓂ꎬ맺컱풺랢늼쇋ꆶ훐뮪죋쏱릲뫍맺풴쮰쳵샽ꆷꎬ뻶뚨뛔뾪닉쪯폍ꆢ쳬좻웸뫍쎺첿뗄웳튵뾪헷풴쮰ꎬ헷쫕믹쫽쫇쿺쫛샻죳싊뎬맽12%뗄샻죳늿럖ꎬ뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ풴쮰짨솢뗄돵훔뻍쫇폃폚뗷뷚풴뾪닉웳튵뗄벶닮쫕틦뗄ꎬ늢쟒헷쫕뗄뿳훖퓶볓쇋쎺첿ꎬ헷쫕뗘쟸듓몣퇳삩듳떽쇋슽뗘ꎬ쓉쮰죋듓훐췢뫏ퟷ웳튵삩듳떽쇋쯹폐웳튵ꎬ떫쫇듋훖풴폐뎥뾪닉뗄쮰럑훆뛈늢쎻폐뾼싇떽쿺쫛샻죳싊킡폚12%뗄쓇늿럖뿳즽웳튵,횻뾼싇쇋벶닮뗘ퟢ뛸캴뾼싇쿠뛔뗘ퟢꎬ쿠떱폚쿺쫛샻죳싊킡폚12%뗄뿳즽웳튵쫇컞뎥뾪닉뗄ꆣ 1986쓪10퓂1죕ꎬꆶ훐뮪죋쏱릲뫍맺뿳닺풴램ꆷ뾪쪼쪩탐ꆣꆶ뿳닺풴램ꆷ뗚컥쳵맦뚨ꎬꆰ맺볒뛔뿳닺풴쪵탐폐뎥뾪닉ꆣ뾪닉뿳닺풴뇘탫내헕맺볒폐맘맦뚨뷉쓉풴쮰뫍풴늹뎥럑ꆱꎬꆰ쮰럑늢듦ꆱ뗄훆뛈듓듋틔램싉뗄탎쪽좷솢쿂살ꆣ떱쪱뾪짨ꆰ뿳닺풴늹뎥럑ꆱ쫇캪쇋늹돤맺볒뛔풴뾱첽춶죫뗄늻ퟣꎬ뿳닺풴늹뎥럑뗄헷쫕내쿺쫛쫕죫뗄1%헷쫕ꆣ 2 뗚뛾듺풴쮰훆뛈 1994쓪4퓂1죕웰쪵쪩뗄ꆶ뿳닺풴늹뎥럑헷쫕맜샭맦뚨ꆷ뻟쳥실쪵쇋ꆶ뿳닺램ꆷ훐폐뎥뾪닉뗄풭퓲ꎬ듋쪱붫뿳닺풴늹뎥럑뚨틥캪뿳즽웳튵뾪닉맺볒쯹폐뗄뿳닺풴뛸탨횧뢶뗄뻸뛔뗘ퟢꎬ떫쫇쯹헷쫕뗄뿳닺풴늹뎥럑듳늿럖죔좻쫇폃폚쏖늹맺볒뛔뿳닺풴뾱첽춶죫뗄늻ퟣꎬ훐퇫럖돉쯹뗃뗄뿳닺풴늹뎥럑쓉죫맺볒풤쯣ꎬ쪵탐쿮맜샭ꎬ웤 9
뗚튻헂 탷싛 쪹폃랽쿲뫍럖엤뇈샽뗄70%폃폚뿳닺뾱닩횧돶ꎬ20%폃폚풴놣뮤횧돶ꎬ10%폃폚뿳닺풴늹뎥럑헷쫕늿쏅뺭럑늹훺,늢퓚ꆶ뢽슼ꆷ훐쇐돶쇋컒맺떱쪱틑랢쿖뗄좫늿173훖뿳닺벰웤늹뎥럑싊ꆣ평폚튪뾼싇뿳즽웳튵뗄돐쫜쓜솦ꎬ컒맺뗄풴늹뎥럑뇈탭뛠맺볒뗄좨샻뷰헷쫕싊튪뗍뗃뛠ꎬ컒맺뿳닺풴늹뎥럑욽뻹쫇풴볛룱뗄1%ꎬ맺췢뗄쮰싊뻹룟폚컒맺ꎬ쏀맺쫇%. 폫듋춬쪱ꎬ컒맺뛔1984쓪뗚튻듺풴쮰뗄헷쫕랽쪽뷸탐쇋룄룯ꎬ웤뫋탄쫇ꎺ늻퓙내뎬뛮샻죳헷쮰ꎬ뛸쫇내뿳닺욷쿺쫛솿뚨뛮헷쫕ꎬ늢쟒뾼싇쇋풴?뢳ꎬ캪쎿튻뿎쮰뿳쟸맦뚨쇋쫊폃쮰싊ꎬ벸뫵쫇튻뿳튻쮰뛮ꆣ폫뗚튻듺풴쮰쿠뇈ꎬ듋쪱냤늼뗄풴쮰훆뛔쿺쫛샻죳싊쒩뎬맽12%뗄뿳즽춬퇹헷쫕풴쮰ꎬ춬퇹헷쫕뚨틥캪뗷뷚ꆰ벶닮쫕틦ꆱ뗄풴쮰ꆣ 평듋컒쏇뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ풴쮰놻램싉퇏룱뗘뚨틥캪벶닮뗘ퟢ탔훊ꎬ떫쫇쪵탐뗄쫇웕뇩헷쫕뗄풭퓲ꎬ퓚튻뚨틢틥짏폫짨훃뗄뿳닺풴늹뎥럑듦퓚훘뢴헷쫕뗄쟩뿶ꆣ 폫듋춬쪱ꎬ룹뻝ꆶ뿳닺풴쟸뿩뗇볇맜샭냬램ꆷꆢꆶ뿳닺풴뾪닉뗇볇맜샭냬램ꆷꎬ뿳즽웳튵짪쟫맺볒돶뾱닩늢틑뺭믱뗃첽쏷뿳닺뗘뗄첽뿳좨뗄ꎬ첽뿳좨짪쟫죋뮹펦뷉쓉뺭움맀좷죏뗄맺볒돶뾱닩탎돉뗄첽뿳좨볛뿮ꎬ틔쏖늹맺볒뛔뿳닺뗘첽뿳뗄춶죫틔벰펦믱뗃뗄쿠펦뗄믘놨ꎻ닉뿳좨샠쯆ꎬ뿳즽웳튵짪쟫뾪닉맺볒돶뾱닩늢탎돉쇋쿪쾸뗄뒢솿탅쾢뗄닉뿳좨뗄ꎬ웳튵펦뻝움맀믺릹좷죏뗄볛룱뷉쓉닉뿳좨ꎬ늹돤맺볒뛔뿳쟸뗄춶죫벰춶죫펦믱뗃뗄쿠펦믘놨ꆣ 3 뷼쓪살풴쮰럑뗄뗷헻틔벰쫔뗣 떱뷱쫀뷧뿳닺욷풴볛룱틑좫쟲뮯ꎬ맺쓚뿳닺욷풴볛룱튲쯦ퟅ맺볊뿳닺욷볛룱짏헇뛸짏헇ꎬ컒맺뿳닺풴맜샭늿쏅뛔랴펳벶닮뗘ퟢ뗄늿럖뿳닺욷풴쮰헷쫕뛮뛈뷸탐쇋뗷헻ꎬ떫쫇뗷헻뗄럹뛈캢뫵웤캢ꎬ벸뫵뿉틔뫶싔늻볆ꎬ샽죧ꎺ뛔쪯폍뾪닉웳튵뗄쪯폍풴쮰8-25풪/뛖뗷훁8-30풪/뛖ꎻퟔ2004쓪틔살쎺첿풴쮰튲뷸탐쇋솽듎뗷헻ꎬ뗷헻뫳뗄풴룷쪡평폚풴?뢳늻튻퇹ꎬ떥캻쮰뛮늻튻,2004쓪붫즽컷풴쮰뗷헻캪쎿뛖풪ꎬ쟠몣쪡ꆢ쓚쏉맅ퟔ훎쟸뺳쓚쎺첿풴쮰뗷헻캪풪쎿뛖ꎬ2005쓪붫훘쟬ꆢ맳훝쪡ꆢ뢣붨쪡춳튻쳡룟훁쎿뛖풪ꎬ퓆쓏쪡돽쟺뺸쫐뢻풴쿘쮰뛮쳡룟훁쎿뛖3풪췢ꎬ웤쯻뗘쟸쳡룟훁쎿뛖풪ꎬ낲믕쪡ꆢ쓾쿄믘ퟥퟔ훎쟸ꆢ즽뚫럖뇰쳡룟떽쎿뛖2풪ꆢ풪뫍풪ꎬ뫓쓏쪡붹ퟷꆢ뫗뇚뿳컱뻖ꆢ틥십뿳컱뻖쎺첿풴쮰쫊폃쮰뛮럖뇰쳡룟훁쎿뛖3풪ꆢ3풪뫍풪ꎬ웤쯻뿳훖퓲춳튻쳡훁4풪ꎬ쿠뛔폚뛖쎺300풪ퟳ폒뗄볛룱ꎬ풴쮰뗄럹뛈쿔좻첫뗍쇋ꆣ 뛔폚컒맺뿳닺풴쮰럑맽뗍틔벰풴뗄ퟛ뫏믘닉싊뮹늻벰쏀맺ꆢ펢맺ꆢ냄듳샻퇇뗄50%ꎬ캪쇋룄짆헢튻쿖ힴꎬ2005컒맺뻍즽컷쇙럚뗄닉뿳좨첽뿳좨폐뎥좡뗃뷸탐쇋쫔뗣ꎬ뻟쳥냬램쫇ꎺ틔2000쓪좫맺춳튻뮻랢닉뿳탭뿉횤쪱뗄놣폐뒢솿캪믹쫽ꎬ복좥뮻횤뫳뗄뚯폃뒢솿ꎨ벴쪣폠뗄뿉닉뒢솿ꎩꎬ내훷붹쎺풪/뛖ꆢ엤붹쎺풪/뛖ꆢ뚯솦쎺1풪/뛖뗄볛뿮ꎬ돋틔놣폐뒢솿ꎬ좷뚨닉뿳좨폐뎥돶죃뗄뗗볛ꆣ1000췲풪틔쿂튻듎탔뷉쟥ꎬ1000 10
뗚튻헂 탷싛 췲풪틔짏뗄럖쓪뛈뷉쟥ꎬ늢쟒쪡ꆢ쫐ꆢ쿘내3ꎺ2ꎺ5뗄뇈샽쫕좡볛뿮ꎬ훷튪폃폚뿳닺풴뫏샭뾪랢ꆢ놣뮤뫍맜샭틔벰쮽펪쎺뿳맘뇕뫳뗄늹뎥뗈ꆣ듋듎쫔뗣좡뗃쇋풤웚뗄킧맻ꎬ튻랽쏦즽컷쇙럚뗄뿳닺풴뗄믘닉싊폐쇋쿔훸뗄쳡룟ꎬ평룄룯잰욽뻹믘닉싊30%쳡룟떽쇋룄룯뫳뗄60%ꎻ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ쳡룟쇋쎺첿뾪닉웳튵뗄쏅볷ꎬ듳웳튵틑탎돉맦쒣뮯ꎬ내뿉닉뒢솿헷쫕닉뿳좨볛뿮듙쪹웳튵늻뛏룄뷸벼쫵ꎬ쳡룟틑뺭뢶럑뗄풴뗄믘닉싊ꆣ 듓즽컷쫔탐뗄폐뎥좡뗃첽뿳좨ꆢ닉뿳좨쫔뗣릤ퟷ뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ쯹헷쫕뗄닉뿳좨뗄볛뿮웤쪵튲쫇헫뛔컒맺뗄뿳닺풴쫴폚맺볒쯹폐ꎬ뗷뷚뿳즽웳튵퓚닉뿳맽돌믱뗃뗄뎬맽욽뻹샻죳뗄뎬뛮쫕틦ꎬ폃폚뷢뻶풴뾪닉맽돌훐뗄뢺췢탔컊쳢ꎨ뮷뺳ꆢ쎺뿳맘뇕뫳뗄늹뎥뗈ꎩꎬ튲쫇풴폚뿳닺풴뗄맺볒쯹폐좨뗄ꎬ탔훊폫풴쮰뗄뻸뛔뗘ퟢ튻훂ꎬ닉뿳좨ꆢ풴쮰ꆢ뿳닺풴늹뎥럑놾훊짏뾴죔듦퓚훘뢴헷쫕뗄컊쳢ꎬ볓듳쇋헷쫕맽돌훐뗄탐헾돉놾ꎬ쫇늻쫇펦룃뫏늢헷쫕ꎬ뿳닺풴쯹폐좨펦룃춨맽뫎훖랽쪽쪵쿖닅쓜볈쳡룟풴뗄믘닉싊ꎬ폖뿉틔쪹탐헾돉놾붵뗍쫇?듽뷢뻶뗄컊쳢ꎻ쇭튻룶횵뗃짌좶뗄컊쳢뻍쫇랴펳뿳닺풴쯹폐좨뗄쫕틦헷쫕뛮뛈펦룃죧뫎좷뚨뗄컊쳢ꆣ 풴쮰럑룄룯쿖ힴ퇐뺿 쿖탐풴쮰럑훆뛈쿂ꎬ뿳닺풴볛횵퇏훘뗍맀틔벰샋럑컊쳢죕틦놻훘쫓ꎬ쪵볹튲뻍풴쮰럑룄룯뷸탐쇋쫔뗣ꎬ샭싛짏탭뛠볒ꆢ톧헟쳡돶쇋맘폚쮰럑룄룯뗄붨틩ꆣ 뿳닺풴쮰럑훆뛈짨볆랽쏦ꎬ룷랽톧헟뻍룄룯훷튪탎돉쇋틔쿂벸훖맛뗣:튻늿럖톧헟죏캪펦좡쿻풴쮰뫍뿳닺풴럑ꎬ돂샶욼ꎨ2004ꎩ죏캪ꆰ컒맺뿳튵웳튵ퟜ쳥쮰뢺훘ꎬ풴쮰폫풴늹뎥럑쫴폚훘뢴볆횤ꎬ펦룃뫏늢ꎬ평뿳닺풴탐헾맜샭늿쏅춳튻헷쫕쯹폐헟좨틦ꎬ틔샻죳캪믹뒡볆헷좨샻뷰ꆱꎻ돂컄뚫ꎨ2006ꎩ죏캪ꆰ펦붫쿖탐뗄풴쮰폫뿳닺풴늹뎥럑뫏늢ꎬ붨솢탂뗄뿳닺풴쮰럑훆뛈-좨샻뷰훆뛈ꎬ냼삨풴뗄뻸뛔뗘ퟢ뫍벶닮뗘ퟢꎬ믹폚쳡룟믘닉싊뗄쮼슷ꎬ내뿉뾪닉솿캪믹뒡헷쫕ꆱꎻ쯎쎷ꆢ췵솢뷜ꎨ2006ꎩ뗈튲죏캪ꆰ펦붫풴쮰폫뿳닺풴늹뎥럑뫏늢ꎬ쪹뗷헻뫳뗄쮰싊룟폚풭살뗄쮰ꆢ럑횮뫍ꎬ틔쿺쫛쫕죫캪믹쫽헷쫕ꎬ쳵볾돉쫬쪱틔풴뒢솿캪믹쫽헷쫕ꎬ늢내뿳즽늻춬랢햹뷗뛎닉폃늻춬쮰싊ꎬ붨솢뿳닺풴뫄뷟늹쳹훆뛈ꆣꆱꎻ퓚2007쓪솽믡잰쾦좫맺죋듳뮷캯램낸뢱훷죎톦믝럦죏캪ꆰ풴쮰폫풴늹뎥럑폐훘뢴헷쫕뗄쿓틉ꎬ늻샻폚컼쫕췢ꎬ펦붫솽헟뫏늢ꎬ붨솢맺볊춨탐뗄좨샻뷰훆뛈ꎬ뗷뷚뿳즽웳튵샻죳럖엤ꆣꆱꎻ뗋훐뮪ꎨ2006ꎩ죏캪ꆰ풴쮰ꆢ뿳닺풴늹뎥럑ꆢ뿳쟸쪹폃럑쫇춬튻탔훊뗄ꎬ붫살뿉틔붫죽헟뫏늢ꆣ횻헷쫕풴쮰ꎬ늢쟒쫓풴뗄욷캻ꆢ뾪닉쳵볾ꆢ뾪닉뷗뛎늻춬뛸닉폃늻춬뗄헷쫕쮰싊ꆣꆱꎬ첷탱뫬ꆢ첷쏷뻼뗈ꎨ2006ꎩ죏캪뻍붨솢폫맺볊맟샽뷓맬뗄좨샻뷰훆뛈ꎬ놣횤뫄뷟탔풴쪹폃헟횧뢶믺믡돉놾ꆣ쳕쫷죋ꆢ삤ꎨ2006ꎩ죏캪펦뫏늢풴쮰뫍뿳닺풴늹뎥럑캪ꆰ폅훊풴럑ꆱꎬ뗷뷚폅훊풴벶닮쫕틦ꎬ늢쫊떱쳡룟뿳좨쪹폃럑뫍닉뿳좨쪹폃럑ꎬ쪹솽헟횮뫍퓚뇟볊뾪닉쳵볾쿂뗈폚쇓뗈풴뻸뛔쫕틦뗄늹뎥럑믲좨샻뷰ꎬ뛸붫ꆰ첽뿳좨볛뿮ꆱ뫍ꆰ닉뿳좨볛뿮ꆱ뗄헷쫕ퟷ캪쏖늹맺볒풴뾱첽춶죫ꎬ쿠떱폚쿖퓚헷쫕뗄뿳닺풴늹뎥럑ꆣ 쇭튻늿럖톧헟죏캪ꎬ펦룃놣쇴풴쮰ꎬ뛔풴쮰럑뗄헷쫕뛮뛈뫍럑싊뷸탐뗷헻ꎬ쯎 11
뗚튻헂 탷싛 뗂뷺ꆢ럫병룹ꎨ2004ꎩ듓풴볛룱짏헇샻틦럖엤뗄뷇뛈뷸탐럖컶죏캪ꆰ펦잿뮯쿖폐풴쮰릦쓜ꎬ훘뗣쳡룟쮰뛮ꎬ삭듳쮰뛮럹뛈ꎬ쎺첿풴쮰럹뛈뗷헻캪-58풪/뛖ꎬ늢헹좡쪡튻벶뗘랽헾뢮좷뚨ꆢ뗷헻쮰뛮좨뫍쮰쫕복쏢좨ꎻ엋볌욽ꎨ2006ꎩ죏캪펦럖웚ꆢ럖뷗뛎뷏듳럹뛈뗘쳡룟쪯폍뫍쳬좻웸풴쮰뗄떥캻쮰뛮ꎬ쪹폍웸풴쮰뗄쫕죫뛮햼풴뾪닉쫕틦뗄10%ꎬ듓폍웸풴쮰뗄룄룯죫쫖쳡돶튪룄뇤맽좥폍웸뿳좨뗍볛믲컞뎥좡뗃뗄탐헾쫚폨랽쪽ꎬ잿뗷뿳좨뗄폐뎥좡뗃ꎬ춻돶좨샻뷰뫍ퟢ뷰ퟷ폃ꎻ샮뺴믔퓚ꆰ2006쓪훐맺맺볊뿳튵듳믡ꆱ짏뇭쪾ꎺ뿳닺풴늹뎥럑뗄룄룯붫뾼싇쳡룟뿳닺풴늹뎥럑럑싊뇪ힼꎬ붨솢폫풴샻폃쮮욽쿠맒릳뗄뢡뚯럑싊훆뛈ꎬ늢쪵탐샛뷸럑싊;퓚풴쮰룄룯랽쏦ꎬ붫춳튻쓚췢웳튵뗄풴쮰럑헾닟ꎻ삩듳풴쮰뗄헷쫕랶캧ꎬ퇏룱쎺첿풴첽뿳좨ꆢ닉뿳좨뗄폐뎥좡뗃ꆣ 평짏뿉횪ꎬ컒맺쿖폐뗄뿳튵쮰럑훆뛈퓬돉쇋뛔풴뗄퇏훘샋럑ꎬ룷볒뛔쫇럱좡쿻풴쮰붨솢폫맺췢쿠뷼뗄좨샻뷰훆뛈듦퓚헹틩ꎬ떫쫇뛔쳡룟풴쮰뛮듯돉쇋릲쪶ꎬ맽뗍뗄풴쮰뫍폍웸풴뗄뿳좨쪹폃럑퓚믽벫틽뷸췢맽돌훐ꎬ믡쪹맺볒뗄쫕틦췢쇷ꎬ틽웰맺폐닺뗄쇷쪧ꎬ훆뚨쫊틋뗄쮰싊쿠뛔붨솢룟킧뗄뿳튵쮰럑훆뛈뗄훘튪탔폐맽횮뛸컞늻벰ꆣ 믹폚쿖뷗뛎컒맺뿳튵쮰럑훆뛈훘뢴헷쫕ꆢ짨훃훘뢴뗄쿖ힴꎬ놾죋죏캪펦붨솢틔쿂뿳튵쮰럑훆뛈ꎺ ꎨ1ꎩ쏷좷첽뿳좨ꆢ닉뿳좨볛뿮쯹냼몬뗄뺭볃쓚죝ꎺ첽뿳좨볛뿮랴펳뗄쫇닉뿳웳튵햼폃맺볒뗄뿳닺뗘뛸횧뢶뗄샠쯆뿳뗘ퟢ탔훊뗄볛뿮ꎬ닉뿳웳튵횻튪퓚맺볒쯹폐뗄뗘쟸첽닢뿳닺풴뗄뿉닉뒢솿ꎬ뚼탨튪쿲맺볒뷉쓉첽뿳좨럑ꎬ떱웳튵뷸죫뾪닉뷗뛎벴춣횹뷉쓉뛸뷉쓉닉뿳좨볛뿮ꎻ ꎨ2ꎩ붫닉뿳좨훐냼몬뗄풴쯹폐좨쫕틦럖샫돶살ꎬ뫏늢풴쮰뫍뿳닺풴늹뎥럑ꎬ룹뻝십뿋쮼뗄뗘ퟢ샭싛붨솢랴펳뿳닺풴ퟔ짭볛횵뗄좨샻뷰훆뛈ꎬ맺볒뛔틑첽쏷뒢솿뗄뿳닺뗘헷쫕좨샻뷰ꎬ좨샻뷰뗄뺭볃쓚죝냼삨풴뗄뻸뛔뗘ퟢ뫍벶닮뗘ퟢꎬ룹뻝뿉믱뗃뗄탅쾢퓋폃뇤뚯싊뗄쪵컯웚좨쒣탍풤닢뿉뾪닉쓪쿞쓚뗄풴좨샻뷰ꎻ ꎨ3ꎩ뾼싇떽펰쿬풴볛룱뗄늻좷뚨틲쯘훚뛠ꎬ캪뇜쏢훆뛈뗄룕탔틔벰놣헏뿳닺풴맺볒쯹폐좨좨샻뗄쮳샻ꆢ돤럖쪵쿖ꎬ펦뾪짨폅훊풴럑ꎨ믲뢺좨샻뷰ꎩꎬ늢쟒폐맘뿳튵움맀늿쏅쎿컥쓪뛔뿳튵웳튵뿉뾪닉쓪쿞쓚뗄쪣폠뿉뾪닉뒢솿룹뻝뇤늨뚯싊뗄쪵컯웚좨쒣탍뷸탐움맀ꎬ죧맻틑헷쫕뗄좨샻뷰뗍폚컥쓪뫳좷뚨뗄좨샻뷰쫽뛮퓲헷쫕폅훊풴럑ꎬ쿠랴ꎬ뛔뿳튵뾪닉웳튵뷸탐늹쳹ꎬ쪩탐뢺좨샻뷰훆뛈ꎬ틔듋뗷뷚뿳튵웳튵쯹믱뗃뗄뎬뛮쫕틦믲퓚뿳튵랢햹쿴쳵쪱ꎬ듙뷸뿳튵뗄랢햹ꆣ 놾컄뗄틔쿂늿럖붫훘뗣뛔랴펳뿳닺풴ퟔ짭볛횵뗄좨샻뷰훆뛈뷸탐뻟쳥뷩짜ꎬ짦벰ꎨ1ꎩ좨샻뷰훆뛈뗄샭싛믹뒡-뗘ퟢ샭싛ꎻꎨ2ꎩ좨샻뷰뗄룅쓮벰쯹냼몬뗄뺭볃쓚죝ꎻꎨ3ꎩ뫏샭움맀좨샻뷰뗄랽램-믹폚뇤늨뚯싊뗄쪵컯웚좨움맀램ꎻꎨ4ꎩ헾뢮쪵쪩좨샻뷰뗄뻟쳥랽쪽틔벰웳튵죧뫎쫊펦좨샻뷰훆뛈. 12
뗚뛾헂 컒맺풴쮰룄룯랽쿲-좨샻뷰훆뛈 뗚뛾헂 컒맺풴쮰룄룯랽쿲-좨샻뷰훆뛈 뿳닺풴쫇릤튵랢햹뗄훘튪쓜풴믹뒡ꎬ퓚컒맺뺭볃뿬쯙랢햹뗄쿖뷗뛎ꎬ풴쫇폐볛횵뗄헢튻맛뗣쫇컣펹훃틉뗄ꎬ좨샻뷰훆뛈폫틔잰뗄쮰럑훆뛈쿠뇈ꎬ놾죋죏캪ퟮ듳뿉좡횮뒦뻍쫇붨솢퓚풴뗄폐볛횵뗄믹뒡횮짏뗄ꎬ놾헂뻍좨샻뷰뗄룅쓮ꆢ볛횵릹돉벰샭싛믹뒡뷸탐쿪쾸뗄뷩짜ꆣ 좨샻뷰뗄룅쓮ꆢ탔훊벰볛횵릹돉 좨샻뷰뗄룅쓮벰탔훊 좨샻뷰쫇뿳닺풴뾪닉죋쿲뿳닺풴쯹폐좨죋ꎨ맺볒ꎩ틲뾪닉뿳닺풴뛸횧뢶뗄엢뎥ꎬ쫇쯹폐헟뺭볃좨샻뗄쳥쿖ꎬ룹뻝뗘ퟢ샭싛웤랴펳뗄쫇뿳닺욷뗄뻸뛔뗘ퟢ뫍늿럖벶닮뗘ퟢꎬ쫇뛔틑쿻뫄뗄뿳닺풴뗄믵뇒늹뎥ꎬ헷쫕훷튪폃폚뿳닺풴뗄뾱닩ꆢ뾪랢샻폃뫍폐킧놣뮤뿳닺풴쪹뿳닺풴뿉틔폀탸샻폃ꆣ 맘폚좨샻뷰쳥쿖뗄쫇쯹폐헟뺭볃샻틦ꆢ뺭볃뗘ퟢ헢튻룅쓮ꎬ맺볊뿳튵뷧늻듦퓚럖웧ꎬ떫쫇뛔폚좨샻뷰떽뗗쫇튻훖쮰뮹쫇럑ꎬ퓚맺볊뿳튵뷧뮹폐닮뻠ꆣ뗚튻훖맛뗣죏캪ꎬ좨샻뷰쫇튻훖럑ꎬ죧Stephen D Smith 죏캪ꎬꆰ좨샻뷰쫇쏀맺닆헾ퟮ듳뗄튻뇊럇쮰닆닺쫕죫ꆣ좨샻뷰늻쫇욾뷨늿쏅좨솦쫕좡뗄ꎬ뛸쫇풴폚맺볒뗄닆닺쯹뗃ꎬ쫕뷉뗄좨샻뷰튲쫇뷸죫맺볒닆헾뗄ꎬ틲듋ꎬ좨샻뷰폫튻냣뗄맘폚럾컱탔쫕ꆰ럑ꆱ쫇폐쟸뇰뗄ꎻ뗚뛾훖맛뗣죏캪ꎬ좨샻뷰쫇튻훖쮰ꎬ맣틥짏뗄쮰ꆣ솪뫏맺얷훞뺭볃캯풱믡뿳튵솢램쏅킡ퟩ퓚1997쓪뗄쳖싛믡짏횸돶ꎬꆰ좨샻뷰쫇ퟷ캪쮰쫕ꎬퟷ캪맺볒닆헾쫕죫뗄살풴횮튻ꎬ횻쫇쒿잰웤틢틥뫍ퟷ폃폐쯹쿂붵ꎬ늢쟒퓚맺볒닆헾쫕죫훐쯹햼뗄뇈샽폐쯹쿂붵뛸틑ꆱꎬ틲듋ꎬ좨샻뷰쫇튻훖늻뚯닺쮰ꎬ쫇늻뚯닺쯹폐좨퓚늻랢짺틆뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ틲죃뛉늻뚯닺폃틦좨뛸좡뗃뗄쫕틦늢뛔횮쯹뿎헷뗄쮰ꎬ쫇뛔쓉쮰헟횧엤펵폐뗄닆닺좨쯹헷쫕뗄쮰쫕ꎬ좨샻뷰폫튻냣ꆰ쮰ꆱ늻춬ꎬ튲늻펦평쮰컱늿쏅헷쫕ꆣ 좨샻뷰떽뗗쫇튻훖쮰ꎬ뮹쫇럑ꎬ펦룃평쳖싛쮰쫕뫍탐헾탔쫕럑뗄탔훊뾪쪼ꆣ룹뻝컒맺쮰램룅싛ꎬ쮰쫕쫇맺볒캪싺ퟣ짧믡릫릲탨튪ꎬ틀뻝웤짧믡횰쓜ꎬ내헕램싉맦뚨ꎬ잿훆탔ꆢ컞뎥뗘닎폫짧믡닺욷럖엤뗄튻훖탎쪽ꆣ럑쫇맺볒믺맘쿲폐맘떱쫂죋쳡릩쒳훖쳘뚨샍컱믲럾컱ꎬ내맦뚨쫕좡뗄튻훖럑폃ꎬ폫쮰쫕늻춬ꎬ럑늢늻쫇맺볒컞뎥쫕좡뗄ꎬ맺볒뗄쫕럑쫇ퟱ톭폐뎥풭퓲뗄ꆢ늢쟒뿮폃ꆣ죧ꎺ컛쮮뒦샭럑ꆢ룶쳥릤짌뮧맜샭럑ꆢ뻓쏱짭럝횤릤놾럑ꎬ뫋탄뗄튻뗣쫇ꎬ쫕럑늢늻쫇맺볒컞뎥쫕좡뗄ꎬ뛸쫇폐뎥쫕좡늢쟒폃춾틑뺭뮮뚨뗄ꎬ틲듋놾죋죏캪ꎬ좨샻뷰ퟷ캪맺볒뗄뿳닺풴닺좨뗄쪵쿖ꎬ훁짙늻펦룃캪쮰ꎬ뛸펦룃캪튻훖ꆰ럑ꆱꎬ떫쫇헢훖ꆰ럑ꆱ폖폫튻냣뗄쫕럑늻튻퇹ꎬ쫇맺볒죃뛉뗄뿳쟸뗄뾪닉좨뛸좡뗃뗄쫕죫ꎬ볈늻춬폫췁뗘쪹폃좨뗄돶죃ꎬ폖늻춬폚튻냣뗄탐헾탔쫕럑ꎬ놾죋퓝쟒붫 13
뗚뛾헂 컒맺풴쮰룄룯랽쿲-좨샻뷰훆뛈 웤뮮캪맣틥짏뗄죃뛉뿳닺뿚뾪닉좨뗄쫕럑ꆣ 좨샻뷰뗄볛횵릹돉 좨샻뷰쫇맺볒죃틑첽쏷뒢솿뗄뿳닺풴쪱헷쫕뗄맣틥짏뗄쫕럑ꎬ쫇뿳튵웳튵믱뗃닉뿳좨쯹횧뢶룸맺볒뗄뗘ퟢꎬ쏷좷좨샻뷰뗄볛횵릹돉쫗쿈뗃쏷좷닉뿳좨폫튻냣뿳닺풴쯹폐좨뗄닮틬ꆣ 맺볒쯹폐뗄뿳닺풴뗄쯹폐좨뻟폐틔쿂쳘헷ꎺ웤튻ꎬ쯼뻟폐볛횵ꎬ쓜싺ퟣ죋쏇쒳훖탨튪ꎻ웤뛾ꎬ쯼뻟폐쾡좱탔ꎬ늻뿉틔컞쿞솿뗘릩룸ꎻ웤죽ꎬ쯼쫇퓌몬폚뗘훐뗄튻훖ퟔ좻뗘샭쳥ꎬ뻟폐늻뚯닺뗄쫴탔ꎬ뿉틔춨맽맺볒뗄뾱첽ꆢ뾪닉폫췁뗘럖샫돶살ꎬ돶쫛믱뗃닆닺쫕틦ꆣ뿳닺풴놻뾪닉돶살뫳쫇튻훖뇪ힼ뗄컯좨ꆣ 닉뿳좨쫇엉짺폚뿳닺풴쯹폐좨뗄ꎬ볈쫇뿳닺풴쯹폐좨뗄쪵컯퓘쳥ꎬ폖뛀솢폚뿳닺풴쯹폐좨ꆣ닉뿳좨쫇듓뿳닺풴쯹폐좨훐엉짺돶살뗄ꆢ뛔뿳닺풴뷸탐뾪닉뗄믮뚯늢틲듋쿭폐쯹뗃쫕틦뗄튻훖업쯻탔좨샻ꎬ쫇튻훖쯻컯좨ꎬ벴뿳닺풴쯹폐좨죋붫뿳닺풴뗄뾪닉좨죃폫쯻죋ꎬ퓊탭쯻죋쪹폃ꆣ떫쫇평폚뿳닺풴쫇튻훖늻뿉퓙짺뫄뷟탔풴ꎬ뛔뿳닺풴뗄뾪닉ꎬ붫쪹쯹폐헟뗄쪵컯쯦뾪닉뛸쿻쪧ꎬ틲듋ꎬ뿳튵좨늻쫇튻냣탔뗄쯻컯좨ꎬ뛸쫇튻훖ힼ컯좨ꆣ 뿳닺풴쯹폐좨ퟷ캪튻훖훕벶컯좨ꎬ뛔웤펵폐뗄뿳닺풴쿭폐햼폐ꆢ쪹폃ꆢ쫕틦뫍뒦럖뗄췪헻좨쓜ꎬ늢뿉틔붫웤펵폐뗄룷쿮좨쓜ꎨ냼삨첽뿳좨ꆢ닉뿳좨뗈ꎩ죃뛉믲폐뎥죃룸쯻죋ꎬ튲뿉붫죃뛉뗄좨쓜쫕믘ꆣ뛸닉뿳좨죋뛔웤펵폐뗄닉뿳좨폐햼폐ꎬ뾪닉ꆢ쫕틦늢퓚맺볒램싉뗄퓊탭쳵볾쿂뷸탐죃뗄좨샻ꎬ닉뿳좨죋뗄좨쓜쫜떽살ퟔꆰퟔ컯좨ꆱ뗄쿞훆ꎬ춻돶뇭쿖퓚웤뛔뿳튵좨뗄뒦럖ꎬ횻쓜틀램뒦럖ꎬ벴탫헷뗃풭쯹폐죋뗄춬틢ꆣ 닉뿳좨뻟폐ힼ컯좨탔훊ꎬ쫇닆닺좨뗄튻훖탎쪽ꎬ뻟폐쏷쿔뗄닺쫴탔ꆣ듓닺좨맘쾵살뾴ꎬ뿳튵좨쫇뿳닺풴쯹폐좨뗄쯻쿮좨샻ꎬ쫴폚뺭펪좨뗄랶돫ꆣ평폚뿳닺풴쫇튻훖쾡좱뗄늻뿉퓙짺뗄뫄뷟탔풴ꎬ헢훖쳘쫢탔뻶뚨쇋뿳튵좨폖늻쫇볲떥틢틥짏뗄쪹폃좨ꆣ듓닉뿳믮뚯잰뫳쯹폐좨뗄맘쾵뇤뮯뾴ꎬ퓚뿳닺풴뒦폚ퟔ좻ힴ첬쪱ꎬ뿳튵좨뗄훷쳥뿉틔캪맺볒믲뿳튵좨죋ꎬ뿍쳥뻹캪뿳닺풴ꆣ쯦ퟅ닉뿳믮뚯뗄뷸탐ꎬ뿳닺풴늻뛏뮯캪췑샫ퟔ좻뢳듦ힴ첬뗄뿳닺욷ꎬ듋쪱뗄뿳닺욷맩닉뿳좨죋쯹폐ꎬ뿳닺풴쪵컯튲쯦횮쿻쪧ꆣ듓헢룶틢틥짏붲ꎬ닉뿳맽돌쪵볊짏쫇뿳닺풴쯹폐좨훰붥틆뗄맽돌ꆣ듓뺭볃톧뗄뷇뛈뾴ꎬ쯹폐좨폐쯄쿮믹놾좨쓜ꎺ햼폐좨ꆢ쪹폃좨ꆢ쫕틦좨뫍뒦럖좨ꎬ뛸닉뿳좨쪵볊짏튲쳥쿖헢쯄쿮좨쓜ꎬ틲듋닉뿳웳튵캪쇋믱뗃닉뿳좨쯹횧뢶뗄좨샻뷰뗄볛횵캪ꎺ뾪닉뿳닺풴믱뗃뗄뎬맽짧믡욽뻹놨돪뗄뎬뛮쫕틦뗄쿖횵폫뿳닺풴뾪닉좨죃쯹믱뗃뗄죃쫕틦횮볤뗄뷏룟헟ꆣ 좨샻뷰훆뛈뗄샭싛믹뒡 퇐뺿붨솢틔헷쫕좨샻뷰캪믹뒡뗄뿳닺풴쮰럑훆뛈ꎬ잰쳢쫇죏캪뿳닺풴뗄좡뗃뇘 14
뗚뛾헂 컒맺풴쮰룄룯랽쿲-좨샻뷰훆뛈 탫쫇폐뎥좡뗃ꎬ뿳닺풴쫇폐볛횵뗄ꎬ늻뷶폐쪹폃볛횵뛸쟒쯹폐헟뿉틔춨맽붻뮻믱뗃쫕틦ꎬ헢뻍뻶뚨쇋컒쏇펦룃틔뿳닺풴뗄볛횵샭싛캪퇐뺿웰뗣ꆣ 뒫춳뗄볛횵샭싛뚼죏캪ퟔ좻풴쫇쎻폐볛횵뗄ꎬ십뿋쮼뗄샍뚯볛횵싛죏캪ꎬ볛횵쫇평샍뚯뒴퓬뗄ꎬ뛸풴뗄탎돉늢쎻폐샍뚯뗄닎폫ꎬ쯹틔뿳닺풴쫇쎻폐볛횵뗄ꎻ쿖듺컷랽훷튪볛룱샭싛ꎬ뇟볊킧폃볛횵싛뗄뎫떼헟냂뗘샻뗄뾨뛻.쏅룱뛻ꆢ펢맺뗄췾솮첹샻.뷜컄쮹듓짌욷뗄훷맛쫴탔뗄뷇뛈죏캪짌욷뗄볛횵평웤킧폃뫍쾡좱탔뻶뚨ꎬ킧폃샭싛죏캪죎뫎짌욷횻폐뷸죫쫐뎡닅믡폐볛횵ꎻ십킪뛻뗄뻖늿뻹뫢볛룱샭싛죏캪짌욷뗄볛룱평릩룸폫탨쟳뗄뻹뫢살뻶뚨ꎬ떫쫇쳵볾쫇짌욷뇘탫튪뷸죫쫐뎡ꎬ퓚뿳튵좨쫐뎡뮹캴탎돉뗄맺볒ꎬ내헕짏쫶샭싛뿳닺풴쫇쎻폐볛횵뗄ꎬ쪵퓲늻좻ꎬ뿳닺풴뗄컞볛퓸떼훂쇋뿳닺뗄뗍킧싊뾪닉ꎬ짏쫶샭싛늻뿉틔쇮죋탅럾뗘뷢쫍뿳닺풴ퟔ짭쯹뻟폐뗄볛횵ꆣ 샮볎춼뗄뗘ퟢ샭싛뫍십뿋쮼뗄뗘ퟢ샭싛뿉틔뛔뿳닺풴쫇폐볛횵뗄뷸탐뫜뫃뗘뷢쫍ꎬ솽헟뿉틔뫜뫃뗘뷢쫍뿳닺풴좨샻뷰훆뛈쯹랴펳뗄뺭볃쓚몬ꎬ떫솽헟퓚죏쪶짏튲폐뫜듳쟸뇰ꎬ잰헟횸돶쇋벶닮뗘ퟢ뗄닺짺쳵볾ꎬ떫쫇늢쎻폐췪좫쇋뷢뗘ퟢ뗄쪵훊ꎬ횻돐죏벶닮뗘ퟢ떫늻돐죏뻸뛔뗘ퟢꎬ내헕샮볎춼뗄뗘ퟢ샭싛ꎬ뿳닺풴뗄볛횵평풴?뢳뗍뗄볛횵뻶뚨ꎬ헢퇹뗄풴뿳튵웳튵폫풴?뢳쳵볾뫃뗄뿳즽웳튵쯹뮨럑뗄샍뚯믲춶죫뗄웤쯻풴튪뛠ꎬ뛸솽훖쳵볾쿂뗄풴내춬퇹뗄볛룱돶쫛풴닺욷ꎬ뇘좻쪹뗃풴?뢳뫃뗄뿳쟸뿉틔믱뗃뇈쳵볾닮뗄뿳쟸뛠믱뗃뎬뛮쫕틦ꎬ헢늿럖쫕틦쫇뻍쫇뿳닺풴뗄벶닮쫕틦ꎬ튲쫇뿳닺풴뗄볛횵ꎬ쯻뫜뫃뗘싛횤쇋뿳닺풴벶닮쫕틦닺짺뗄풭샭ꎬ떫쫇듭컳뗘죏캪늻듦퓚뻸뛔뗘ퟢ뗄맛뗣폫쿖쪵늻럻ꎬ죧맻풴?뢳닮뗄뿳쟸닉좡뗄쫇컞뎥뾪닉뗄탎쪽쓇쎴뻍믡듦퓚룷뿳훷럤펵뛸짏ꎬ뺺쿠싓뛡맺볒쯹폐뗄풴뛸퓬돉풴뾪닉킧싊뗍쿂ꎬ풴컞볛뗄뻖쏦ꆣ 십뿋쮼뗄뗘ퟢ샭싛뿉틔뫜뫃뗘뷢쫍뿳닺풴볛횵뗄듦퓚ꎬ쯻늻뷶돐죏벶닮뗘ퟢ뗄듦퓚뮹돐죏뻸뛔뗘ퟢ뗄듦퓚ꆣ십뿋쮼뗄뗘ퟢ샭싛죏캪ꎬ뻍쫇평폚췁뗘쮽폐좨뗄슢뛏ꎬ쪹얩닺욷뗄볛룱룟폚쇓뗈췁뗘짺닺뗄닺욷볛룱ꎬ얩튵짺닺뻍돶쿖쇋뎬뛮샻죳ꎬ슢뛏쪹뗃뎬뛮쫕틦늻닎볓짧믡뗄샻죳욽뻹뮯ꎬ듓뛸쪹횮뮯캪췁뗘쯹폐헟뗄뻸뛔뗘ퟢꎬ춬퇹ꎬ쯹폐뗄뿳닺풴쫴폚맺볒쯹폐ꎬ쯹폐좨뗄슢뛏쪹뗃뾪닉웳튵뾪닉돶뗄뿳닺욷뿉틔틔룟폚뿳쟸춶죫뫍쯹튪쟳뗄놨돪싊뗄볛룱돶쫛ꎬ헢퇹룟돶뗄늿럖뻍쫇뿳닺풴뗄뻸뛔뗘ퟢꎬ뻸뛔뗘ퟢ뗄볛횵쫇뿳닺욷뗄볛횵뫍짺닺볛룱횮볤뗄닮뛮ꎻ폫샮볎춼뛔벶닮뗘ퟢ뗄탎돉풭틲뗄뷢쫍늻춬ꎬ십뿋쮼뗄뗘ퟢ샭싛늻죏캪벶닮쫕틦뗄닺짺쫇평폚샍뚯짺닺싊뗄붵뗍쯹틽웰뗄ꎬ쫂쪵짏ꎬ쿖듺짧믡샍뚯짺닺싊늻쫇붵뗍뛸쫇훰쓪퓚쳡룟ꎬ벶닮쫕틦뗄닺짺춬퇹살풴폚췁뗘뗄뺭펪좨뗄슢뛏ꎬ얩튵훐ꎬ췁뗘폐쿞ꎬ폈웤쫇럊컖췁뗘늻쓜쯦틢퓶볓ꎬ떫얩닺욷뗄쫐뎡볛룱늻믡붵뗍ꎬ뫃뗄췁뗘닺짺뗄룟폚쇓뗈췁뗘뗄쫕틦뻍쫇벶닮쫕틦ꎬ춬퇹ꎬ뿳닺풴뗄벶닮쫕틦뗄닺짺튲쫇평폚뿳닺풴뗄쯹폐좨쫴폚맺볒쯹폐ꎬ퓚풴릩탨죕틦뷴헅뗄뷱쳬ꎬ풴욷훊뫃ꆢ뗘샭캻훃폅풽뗄뿳닺뗘탎돉뗄벶닮쫕틦풽룟ꎬ쿠펦뗄듺뇭맺볒뿳닺풴쯹폐헟좨샻쪵쿖뗄좨샻뷰튲믡쿠펦쳡룟ꆣ 15
뗚뛾헂 컒맺풴쮰룄룯랽쿲-좨샻뷰훆뛈 평듋뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ뿳닺풴쫇폐볛횵뗄ꎬ늢쟒볛횵냼삨뻸뛔뗘ퟢ뫍벶닮뗘ퟢ솽늿럖ꎬ퓚풴죕틦쾡좱뗄뷱쳬ꎬ컒쏇펦룃헽쫓뿳닺풴뗄ퟔ짭볛횵ꎬ붫풴뗄볛횵헽좷ꆢ뫏샭뗘랴펳떽짺닺돉놾훐좥ꎬ쪹맺볒ퟷ캪풴뗄쯹폐헟믱뗃펦폐뗄믘놨ꎬ십뿋쮼뗄뗘ퟢ샭싛쫇좨샻뷰훆뛈뗄샭싛믹뒡ꆣ 좨샻뷰훆뛈쫇컒맺뿳좨쪵쿖랽쪽뗄뇘좻톡퓱 폫뿳닺풴뗄웤쯻닺좨쪵쿖랽쪽쿠뇈ꎬ좨샻뷰훆뛈쫇퓚랢햹맽돌훐탎돉뗄튻훖폐킧뿳좨쪵쿖랽쪽ꎬ폅쫆죧쿂ꎺ 쓜랴펳뿳닺풴ퟔ짭뗄볛횵 뿳닺풴뗄좨샻뷰벴쿠떱폚맺볒돶쫛캴살뿉뾪닉돶쫛뗄뿳닺풴뛸쫕좡뗄풴볛룱ꎬ닉뿳좨뗄죃뿉틔죏캪쫇튻훖ힼ컯좨뗄죃ꎬ쓜뫜뫃뗘뇭쏷풴쫇폐볛횵뗄ꎬ닉뿳웳튵믱뗃뾪닉뿳닺풴뗄좨샻횮잰뇘탫내맦뚨뗄뇪ힼퟣ뛮뷉쓉좨샻뷰ꎬ폫볆뮮뺭볃쪱웚춨맽탐헾뮮늦랽쪽쿂럅닉뿳좨탎돉쿊쏷뛔뇈ꆣ 쳥쿖맺볒ퟷ캪풴쯹폐죋뗄샻틦 틔뾪헷좨샻뷰랽쪽쪵쿖뿳닺풴쯹폐헟좨틦ꎬ룄뇤맽좥맺볒춨맽쮰럑뗄헷쫕살쪵쿖뿳좨ꎬ룼볓뫏샭ꆣ쮰쫇맺볒틔맜샭헟짭럝ꆢ캪웳튵믲릫쏱쳡릩릫릲럾컱뛸쿲웳튵믲룶죋헷쫕뗄ꎬ늻쓜폃살랴펳뿉죃풴뾪닉좨뛸쿲닉뿳웳튵헷쫕뗄샠쯆풴볛룱뗄뿮쿮ꎬ럑쫇맺볒횸뚨폃춾뗄쫕럑ꎬ죧뷌폽럑뢽볓ꆣ랴펳풴뗄뻸뛔뗘ퟢ-뿳닺풴늹뎥럑춨맽럑폃뗄탎쪽헷쫕럇뎣늻뫏쫊ꎬ풴뗄쯹폐헟춨맽럑폃뗄탎쪽살쪵쿖쯹폐좨룼쫇뫁컞뗀샭ꎻ탎쪽짏믡놻컳죏캪맺볒쫇뿳튵믮뚯뗄맜샭헟뛸럇쯹폐헟ꎬ틲듋ꎬ좡쿻풴쮰뫍뿳닺풴늹뎥럑쫇뇘좻톡퓱ꎬ뛸톡퓱좨샻뷰훆뛈ퟷ캪뿳좨쪵쿖뗄랽쪽ꎬ놾죋죏캪쫇ퟮ병톡퓱ꎬ늻뷶뿉틔쳥쿖맺볒ퟷ캪풴쯹폐죋뗄샻틦ꎬ튲뿉틔쪹맺볒퓚죃닉뿳좨뗄맽돌훐믱뗃ퟔ훷좨ꎬ룹뻝뿉풤닢뗄뿳닺욷풴뗄볛룱ퟟ쫆ꆢ늻춬뿳훖뗄풴?뢳뻶뚨뿳훖뗄좨샻뷰싊ꎬ뿉틔벫듳뗘캬뮤맺볒ퟷ캪풴쯹폐죋뗄샻틦ꎬ뇜쏢맺폐닺뗄쇷쪧ꆣ 닉폃엄싴뗄랽쪽죃맺볒쯹폐뗄뿳닺닉뿳좨뿉틔뷚풼헾뢮돉놾 놾죋죏캪룄룯뫳뗄좨샻뷰훆뛈ꎬ맺볒뿉틔내뻟쳥뗄뿳훖닉폃엄싴뗄랽쪽죃닉뿳좨ꎬ떫쫇좷뚨뻟쳥뿳훖ꆢ뿳즽펦룃헷쫕뗄좨샻뷰쫽뛮뇘탫틔쓜뫏샭랴펳풴좨샻뷰뗄뚨볛쒣탍캪믹뒡ꎬ엄싴볛룱늻뗃뗍폚틀쒣탍좷뚨뗄좨샻뷰ꆣ틔듋랽쪽쪵쿖뿳닺풴뗄쯹폐좨쿠뛔폚뾪헷풴쮰폫뿳닺풴늹뎥럑ꎬ뿉틔뷚풼헾뢮붻틗돉놾ꆣ엄싴훆뛈춨맽튻룶싴랽폫뛠룶싲랽뷸탐쿖뎡붻틗ꎬ쪹늻춬뗄싲랽캧죆춬튻컯욷믲닆닺좨샻뺺쿠돶룟볛듓뛸퓚엄싴뺺볛훐좥랢쿖웤헦쪵볛룱뫍쾡좱돌뛈ꎬ뇜쏢붻틗뗄훷맛쯦틢탔ꎬ룼횱뷓뗘랴펳쫐뎡탨쟳ꎬퟮ훕쪵쿖짌욷뗄ퟮ듳볛횵ꎻ뿉틔복짙헾뢮퓚좷뚨좨샻뷰쪱짨훃믺릹뛸뫄럑횴탐돉놾ꎬ듓뛸뷚풼탐헾돉놾ꎬ복짙짳엺ꎬ쳡룟냬쫂킧싊ꆣ 16
뗚뛾헂 컒맺풴쮰룄룯랽쿲-좨샻뷰훆뛈 퓚좷뚨컒맺뿳좨쪵쿖랽쪽뗄좨샻뷰훆뛈뫳ꎬퟮ벬쫖뗄컊쳢뻍쫇닉좡벼쫵쫖뛎살뷢뻶좨샻뷰헷쫕뗄쫽솿컊쳢ꎬ놾컄뗄틔쿂헂뷚붫훘뗣뷩짜쿖폐뗄움맀닉뿳좨볛뿮뗄쒣탍ꆢ럖컶쒣탍뗄폅좱뗣늢쳡돶놾죋죏캪뷏캪ힼ좷뗘풤닢좨샻뷰뗄쒣탍ꆣ 17
뗚죽헂 좨샻뷰움맀튻냣뺭볃쒣탍 뗚죽헂 좨샻뷰움맀뗄튻냣뺭볃쒣탍 뻝풴뺭볃톧훐뗄훸쏻Hotelling 램퓲ꎬ떱늻뾼싇늻뿉퓙짺풴뗄짺닺ꎨ뾪닉ꎩ돉놾쪱ꎬ풴볛룱퓚풴뚯첬ퟮ폅엤훃쳵볾쿂ꎬ붫틔쿠뗈폚쫐뎡샻싊뗄퓶뎤싊뛸솬탸짏짽ꆣ볙짨P쫇뗚t웚뗄풴볛룱ꎬr쫇쫐뎡샻싊ꎬ퓲Hotelling 램퓲뇭쏷폐죧쿂맘쾵: t P=P(1+r) t+1t뺺헹탔쫐뎡짏ꎬHotelling 램퓲뻍쫇풴쫐뎡폫뷰쫐뎡횮볤듯떽뻹뫢뗄쳵볾ꎬ틔떱잰풴볛룱룸뚨뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ놾죋죏캪듓뎤웚쟷살뾴ꎬ풴볛룱튲쫇틔튻룶만뚨뗄샻싊짏헇뗄ꎬ횻늻맽평폚쫜쫐뎡릩룸ꆢ햽헹뗈늻뿉풤닢틲쯘펰쿬ꎬ풴뗄볛룱쓑틔풤닢ꎬ늢쟒늨뚯싊뇤뮯듳ꆣ헢튲듓쇭튻룶닠쏦랴펳ힼ좷풤닢풴볛룱뗄훘튪탔ꎬ볙죧헾뢮짨t뚨뗄풴뗄좨샻뷰캪K,퓲웳튵퓚t쓪믱뗃뗄뎬뛮샻죳(p−k)(1+r)믡쯦ퟅ쪱볤뗄췆틆풽살풽듳ꎬ틲듋ꎬ훘쫓좨샻뷰뗄움맀쫇퓚뷢뻶쇋뿳좨쪵쿖랽쪽뫳뗄튻룶훘튪뗄컊쳢ꆣ믹폚듋잰컒맺캴닉폃좨샻뷰튻듊살랴펳뿳닺풴뗄볛횵ꎬ뛸쫇볆죫닉뿳좨볛뿮훐살랴펳놻뫶쫓뗄뿳닺풴놾짭뗄볛횵ꎬ쯹틔놾컄뻍틑폐뗄뿳닺풴닉뿳좨움맀쒣탍춨춨닉폃좨샻뷰움맀헢쮵램ꆣ 좨샻뷰움맀랽램퇐뺿쿖ힴ 맺췢좨샻뷰움맀퇐뺿쿖ힴ 컷랽맺볒뛔좨샻뷰움맀랽램뗄퇐뺿뾪쪼폚20쫀볍70쓪듺훐웚ꎬ20쫀볍30쓪듺돵ꎬ쏀맺쫽솿뺭볃톧볒Hotelling뷌쫚퓚쯻뗄ꆶ뫄뷟탔풴뺭볃ꆷ튻컄훐뛔뫄뷟탔풴퓚뒢솿ꆢ돉놾좷뚨뗄쟩뿶쿂뿧웚ퟮ폅엤훃뫍뚨볛컊쳢뷸탐쇋샭싛퇐뺿ꎬ쳡돶쇋훸쏻뗄Hotelling맦퓲ꆣ1974쓪ꎬSolow퓚쯻뗄ꆶ풴뗄뺭볃뫍뺭볃뗄풴ꆷ튻컄훐ꎬ뷸튻늽닻쫶뫍ퟜ뷡쇋Hotelling뗄퇐뺿돉맻ꎬ쯦뫳탭뛠샭싛뺭볃톧볒죧SchulzeꆢStiglitzꆢPindyckꆢ뗈붫Hotelling 뗄퇐뺿랢햹떽뾪닉돉놾뿉뇤ꆢ쫐뎡늻좷뚨ꆢ뒢솿늻좷뚨뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ쯻쏇샻폃뚯첬ퟮ폅뮯샭싛쳡돶쇋뫄뷟탔풴뗄뾪닉쒣탍ꎬ듓헢킩쒣탍훐뿉틔럖컶돶뫄뷟탔풴볛룱쯦쪱볤뇭뇤뮯뗄맬벣랽돌ꆣPindyckꆢSundaresan 뫍Deshmukh 뗄쒣탍돤럖뾼싇쇋뿳닺욷볛룱뫍뿳닺풴닺뒢솿뗄쯦믺뇤뚯틲쯘ꆣBrennan 뗈죋믹폚웚좨뚨볛샭싛퇐뺿쇋뿳닺풴뗄춶움맀컊쳢ꎬ붨솢쇋뿳즽릤돌움맀뗄샭싛쒣탍ꎬ룃쒣탍뾼싇쇋뿳즽웳튵뗄탐캪랽쪽뫍퓋펪맜샭뗄쇩믮탔ꎬ떫평폚쒣탍평튻ퟩ뢴퓓뗄욫캢럖랽돌벰웤뇟뷧쳵볾ퟩ돉ꎬ쟳뷢쪮럖삧쓑ꎬ튻냣폃폚샭싛럖컶ꆣ 20쫀볍80쓪듺훐웚Landefeld 뫍 Hines 뗈죋뛔틑첽쏷뗄뿳닺풴닺뗄좨샻뷰맀 쯣뷸탐쇋퇐뺿ꎬ쯻쏇쳡돶뿳닺풴볛횵좨샻뷰움맀뫍뫋쯣뗄쫕틦쿖횵램ꎬ췁뗘볛룱램뫍쿖볛램뗈랽램ꎬ웤쒿뗄쫇캪쇋퓚솪냮맺쏱닆뢻뫋쯣쪱볆쯣뿉첽쏷뒢솿뗄풴볛횵ꆣ 18
뗚죽헂 좨샻뷰움맀튻냣뺭볃쒣탍 튻킩톧헟튲횸돶ꎬ샻폃쫐뎡짏뗤탍뗄뫄뷟탔뿳닺풴뒢솿뗄붻틗볛룱뿉틔맀쯣듽맀풴뗄볛횵ꎬ헢뻍쫇쯹캽뗄뿉뇈쿺쫛램ꆣ룃랽램탨튪뿳닺풴붻틗쫐뎡ꎬ늢쟒쫐뎡짏뇘탫튪폐뗤탍뗄붻틗쪵샽뫍낸샽ꎬ럱퓲ꎬ룃랽램쓑폚쪹폃ꎬ쒿잰룃랽램횻퓚뿳닺풴붻틗뇈뷏랢듯뗄뗘쟸뗃떽튻킩펦폃ꆣ ퟜ횮ꎬ퓚쿖뷗뛎ꎬ쫕틦쿖횵램쫇튻훖펦폃뇈뷏맣랺뗄맀볛랽램ꆣ평폚쫕틦쿖횵램튪쟳쏷좷듽맀뿳닺풴뗄웚췻쪣폠뾪닉웚뫍캴살룷웚뗄웚췻뺻쫕틦틔벰웚췻헛쿖싊ꎬ뛸쒿잰뮹쎻폐뫜뫃뗄랽램쓜헽좷풤닢헢킩늻좷뚨닎쫽ꎬ쯹틔퓚쪵볊쪹폃쪱죋쏇늻뗃늻붫캴살뗄늻좷뚨뺻쫕틦뫍늻좷뚨쳵볾쿂뗄헛쿖싊볙뚨캪뫣뚨뗄뺻쫕틦뫍뫣뚨뗄헛쿖싊ꎬ틲듋쒣탍뗄뿉뾿탔횵뗃힢틢ꆣ 맺쓚좨샻뷰움맀퇐뺿쿖ힴ 컒맺맺쓚폚짏쫀볍80쓪듺뾪쪼퇐뺿뿳닺풴뗄볛횵컊쳢ꎬ늢붫뿳닺풴볛횵늢죫닉뿳좨ꎨ틑첽쏷뒢솿ꎩ믲첽뿳좨볛뿮ꎨ캴첽쏷뒢솿ꎩ떱훐ꆣ20쫀볍80쓪듺쒩웚ꎬ샮뷰닽뫍뫎돉ꎬ쳡돶쇋냑ퟔ좻풴닺뫋쯣쓉죫맺쏱뺭볃뫋쯣쳥쾵뗄릹쿫ꎻ샷틔쓾뫍헂뗈쳡돶쇋ퟔ좻풴뚨볛뗄뇟볊돉놾램ꎬ횸돶ퟔ좻풴뗄볛룱펦룃쿠떱폚웤뇟볊돉놾ꎬ벴쿠떱폚뇟볊짺닺돉놾ꆢ뇟볊쪹폃돉놾뫍뇟볊췢늿돉놾횮뫍ꎻ헅뛘뢻뗈쳡돶쇋풴볛룱볆쯣뗄펰ퟓ볛룱램ꎬ벴춨맽풴짺닺뫍샍뚯쯹듸살쫕틦뗄뇟볊릱쿗좷뚨웤펰ퟓ볛룱ꎬ좻뫳붫웤돋틔쒳튻볛룱쾵쫽살좷뚨풴뗄쪵볊볛룱ꎻ풬뮳폪뗈쳡돶쇋뿳즽뎬뛮뿳샻평믹놾뿳샻ꆢ벶닮뿳샻1뫍벶닮뿳샻2릹돉ꎬ늢룸돶쇋볆쯣뿳즽뎬뛮뿳샻뗄쫕틦쿖횵램쒣탍ꎻ맺볒맺폐닺맜샭뻖움맀훐탄뗄볒쏇쳡돶쇋닉뿳좨뗄뺻볛횵펦뗈폚뿳닺풴닺뗗볛ꆢ짺첬뮷뺳늹뎥볛ꆢ뿳닺풴늹뎥럑ꆢ뾱첽춶죫늹뎥럑뫍뿳좨랢쿖좨틦늹뎥럑횮뫍ꎬ춬쪱뷸튻늽횸돶ꎬ샭싛짏ꎬ죃닉뿳좨ꎬ웤쯹폐헟믱뗃뗄ퟢ뷰쫇뻸뛔뗘ퟢꎬ늢룸돶쇋볆쯣뿳닺풴닺뗄뗗볛뗘ퟢ랽램ꎻ췴뚡뚡뷩짜늢럖컶쇋맺췢맘폚뿳닺풴ퟢ뷰좷뚨뗄뚯첬폅뮯쒣탍ꎻ췵맣돉뗈죏캪뿳닺풴뗄볛횵펦평뿳닺풴쾡좱탔ퟢ뷰뗄벶닮ퟢ뷰ퟩ돉ꎬ늢듓풴뗄풤웚쫕틦돶랢ꎬ틀뻝ퟮ폅뮯풭샭붨솢쇋풴볛횵맀쯣쒣탍ꎬ떫쫇쯻쏇뗄쒣탍훐뛔캴살룷웚쎺첿풴뗄뺻쫕틦죔닉폃뺲첬뮯랽램뷸탐풤닢ꎬ늢뛔뚯첬뇤뮯탔헛쿖싊죔닉폃튻룶만뚨늻뇤뗄횵ꎬ퓚떱뷱뿳닺풴릩쟳죕쟷늻욽뫢ꎬ볛룱늨뚯탔듳뗄놳뺰쿂ꎬ쒣탍뗄쫊폃탔듦퓚뫜듳컊쳢ꆣ췵쯄맢ꆢ췵맣돉뫍붯횾뗈죋튲럖뇰뛔뿳뒲뒢솿볛횵맀쯣뷸탐쇋첽쳖ꎬ쯻쏇뗄퇐뺿쫂쪵짏뻍쫇믹폚쫕틦쿖횵램뗄쒣탍ꆣ뮹폐튻킩퇐뺿헟죏캪퓚컞쫊뫏뗄랽램헽좷풤닢캴살뗄늻좷뚨닎쫽쪱ꎬퟮ뫃닉폃맀볛쪱볤짏뗄닎쫽ꎬ틔벰닉폃뺻쿖볛램ꎻ뮹폐튻킩톧헟듓샍뚯볛횵싛뗄뷇뛈살움맀닉뿳좨ꎬ쯻쏇죏캪ꎬ닉뿳좨ퟷ캪튻훖컞탎닺ꎬ웤볛횵좡뻶폚쯹냼몬뗄짧믡뇘튪샍뚯쪱볤ꎬ짧믡뇘튪샍뚯쪱볤쫇틔볲떥샍뚯캪볆솿믹뒡뗄ꆣ뛸뛔폚닉뿳좨살쮵ꎬ쪹횮뿍쳥-뿳뒲믲뿳쳥닺짺뗄샍뚯훷튪쫇뗘훊뿆벼죋풱뫍웤쯻튵죋풱뗄쓔솦샍뚯ꎬ쫇뢴퓓샍뚯ꆣ샍뚯볛횵싛붫헢튻볲떥뗄쫓캪볓놶뗄볲떥샍뚯ꎬ붫닉뿳좨탎돉맽돌ퟮ훘튪ퟷ폃뗄쓔솦샍뚯볲떥뮯뗄랽램ꎬ쪵볊짏뗍맀쇋닉뿳좨뗄볛횵ꆣ헢킩퇐뺿돉맻캪컒맺닉뿳좨움맀샭싛뫍랽램뗬 19
뗚죽헂 좨샻뷰움맀튻냣뺭볃쒣탍 뚨쇋믹뒡ꎬ튲캪놾컄듓닉뿳좨볛뿮훐럖샫돶살뗄좨샻뷰뗄움맀쳡릩쇋랽램짏뗄횸떼틢틥ꆣ ퟛ짏쯹쫶ꎬ컒맺뛔폚뿳닺풴볛횵뗄움맀훷튪벯훐폚닉뿳좨볛뿮좨샻뷰뗄움맀ꎬ쿖뷗뛎쪹폃뗄훷튪폐쫕틦쿖횵램뫍뿉뇈쿺쫛램ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ쒿잰닉뿳좨붻틗쫐뎡퓚훐맺뮹쎻폐탎돉ꎬ닉폃뿉뇈쿺쫛낸샽램뗄쪱믺늢늻돉쫬ꎬ쯹틔컒맺움맀닉뿳좨뗄볛횵죔쪹폃뗄쫇쫕틦쿖횵램ꆣ 좨샻뷰뗄훷튪움맀랽램뗄퇐뺿 쳹쿖쿖뷰쇷솿램 쳹쿖쿖뷰쇷솿램ꎨdiscounted cash flow , DCFꎩ쫇맺볊뿳닺풴좨샻뷰움맀뫍컒맺뿳닺풴좨샻뷰움맀뎣쪹폃뗄튻훖랽램ꎬ쫇횸춨맽맀쯣놻움맀닺뗄캴살풤웚쫕틦ꎬ늢헛쯣돉쿖횵ꎬ뷨틔좷뚨놻움맀닺볛횵뗄튻훖닺움맀랽램ꆣ듋훖랽램쫇붨솢퓚틔쿂벸쳵볙짨믹뒡짏ꎺ ꎨ1ꎩ쓜릻ힼ좷맀볆믲풤닢뿳닺풴닺쎿쓪뗄뺻쿖횵쇷솿ꎻ ꎨ2ꎩ쓜릻ힼ좷맀볆뿳즽쫙쏼웚뫍쳹쿖싊ꎻ ꎨ3ꎩ퓚뿳즽웳튵헻룶쫙쏼웚쓚ꎬ춶뗄쓚췢늿뮷뺳늻믡랢짺풤웚틔췢뗄뇤뮯ꎻ ꎨ4ꎩ뿳즽웳튵뺭펪헟횻쓜닉좡룕탔뗄춶닟싔ꎬ벴튪쎴솢벴뾪닉ꎬ좻뫳내볈뚨뗄맦뮮쪵쪩ꎬ횱떽뿳즽쫙쏼웚뷡쫸ꎬ튪쎴맘뇕ꎬ뷱뫳늻퓙뾼싇ꎬ쎻폐뾼싇맜샭뗄죡탔ꆣ ꎨ5ꎩ퓚뾪닉맽돌훐ꎬ뿳즽뺭펪헟냧퇝뗄횻쫇튻룶놻뚯뗄뷇즫ꎬ쯻횻쓜ퟸ맛춶뮷뺳뗄뇤뮯ꎬ늻쓜닉좡쇩믮뗄뛔닟ꆣ 퓚닉폃쳹쿖쿖뷰쇷솿램뛔믱뗃뗄좨샻뷰뷸탐움맀쪱ꎬ쯹짦벰뗄닎쫽냼삨ꎺ뾪닉웚쓚뗄쓪쿺쫛쫕죫ꆢ쓪뺭펪돉놾ꆢ뗈웤쯻쮰뷰ꆢ뿳즽뗄뾪닉쓪쿞ꆢ짧믡쿺쫛쫕죫욽뻹샻죳싊 뻟쳥움맀릫쪽죧쿂ꎺ NP=ꇆ[(Wat-Wbt)/(1+r)t] t=1 웤훐ꎺP-좨샻뷰뷰뛮 r-헛쿖싊 W=쓪쿺쫛쫕죫-쓪뺭펪돉놾-웤쯻쮰뷰 at W=쓪쿺쫛쫕죫*짧믡쿺쫛쫕죫욽뻹샻죳싊 bt 퓚닉폃쳹쿖쿖뷰쇷솿램뛔좨샻뷰뷸탐움맀쪱ꎬ뛔움맀쯹튪쟳뗄닎쫽뗄맀볆럇뎣룟ꎬ튪쟳쳡릩뾪닉웚쓚풴뗄헛쿖싊ꆢ쿺쫛쫕죫ꆢ돉놾ꆢ웤쯻룷쿮쮰럑ꎬ떫쫇룷닎쫽퓚뎤 8 살ퟔꎺꆶ닺움맀ꆷꎬ2007쓪좫맺힢닡움맀쪦뾼쫔뷌닄ꎬ좫맺힢닡닺움맀쪦뾼쫔폃쫩뇠킴 20
뗚죽헂 좨샻뷰움맀튻냣뺭볃쒣탍 듯20-30쓪뗄뾪닉웚쿞쓚늢늻쫇튻닣늻뇤뗄ꎬ풴뗄쿺쫛쫕죫퓚뒢솿틑첽쏷뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ쫜떽풴볛룱뗄펰쿬ퟮ듳ꎬ풴볛룱퓚릩쟳죕틦늻욽뫢뗄맺볊뮷뺳쿂ꎬ풴볛룱짏헇늻뿉풤닢ꎻ짧믡쿺쫛쫕죫욽뻹샻죳싊쫜짧믡뗄뺭볃랢햹쯙뛈ꆢ춨믵엲헍쮮욽펰쿬튲늻뿉쓜쫇뫣뚨ꎻ뛸뿳튵웳튵캴살뷉쓉뗄뮷뺳늹뎥럑폫웳튵퓚뾪닉풴맽돌훐뛔뮷뺳뗄펰쿬폐맘ꎬ헷쫕뛮쪩탐뗄쫇폫풴뾪닉쮮욽뫍뮷뺳컛좾ꆢ훎샭쮮욽쿠맒릳뗄뢡뚯뇈싊훆뛈ꎬ쯹틔짏뷉뗄뮷뺳늹뎥럑튲쫇늻뿉풤닢뗄ꎬ늢늻쫇폫쿖뷗뛎뗄내풴뗄쫕죫쮮욽뗄튻뚨뇈샽헷쫕ꎻퟮ훘튪뗄튻뗣쫇퓚퓋폃쳹쿖쿖뷰쇷솿램뛔좨샻뷰뷸탐움맀쎻폐뾼싇맜샭뗄쇩믮탔ꎬ뿳즽뗄뺭펪헟폐룹뻝떱잰풴볛룱뷸탐퇓동뾪닉뗄좨샻ꎬ풴볛룱뗍폚풤웚볛룱쪱뿉틔복짙떱웚풴뗄뾪닉ꎬ풴볛룱짏헇쪱ꎬ퓶볓풴뗄뾪닉솿ꎬ뿳즽뾪닉좨뗄쯹폐죋뮹뗄붫쿮쒿훕횹죃돶쫛뗄좨샻ꎬ떱쯻죏캪뾪닉뿳즽쯹듸살뗄쫕틦뗍폚떱잰돶쫛뾪닉좨죃쫕틦쪱ꎬ뿉틔톡퓱붫뿳좨돶쫛ꆣ쳹쿖쿖뷰쇷솿램캴뾼싇튻킩닎쫽쫇늻볤뛏뇤뚯뗄쟩뿶쿂뗄ꎬ쇭튻룶ퟮ듳뗄좱쿝쫇캴뾼싇맜샭맽돌훐뗄죡탔ꎬ쪹쫇뿳닺풴좨샻뷰놻퇏훘뗍맀ꆣ 뿉뇈쿺쫛램 뿉뇈쿺쫛램쫇샻폃틑횪닉뿳좨죃훐뗄쫐뎡볛ꎬ뺭맽닮틬럖컶틲쯘뗷헻ꎬ살맀쯣듽움맀뗄닉뿳좨뗄랽램ꎬ뻟쳥뗄움맀쒣탍캪ꎺ P=P*ꛌ*ꛎ*ꇩ*ꛈ x쪽훐ꎺP-좨샻뷰뷰뛮 P----닎헕뗄뿳닺풴닉뿳좨죃쪱헷쫕뗄좨샻뷰 xꛌ----맦쒣뗷헻쾵쫽 ꛎ----욷캻뗷헻쾵쫽 ꇩ-----볛룱뗷헻쾵쫽 ꛈ----닮틬뗷헻쾵쫽 웤훐틔닎헕뗄닉뿳좨샻뷰뷸탐뿳뒲맦쒣닮틬뗷헻ꆢ욷캻뗷헻ꆢ뿳닺욷볛룱뗷헻ꆢ닉뿳좨닮틬튪쯘뚨틥죧쿂ꎺ 맦쒣뗷헻쾵쫽=놻움맀닉뿳좨첽쏷뒢솿/닎헕뗄닉뿳좨첽쏷뒢솿 욷캻뗷헻쾵쫽=놻움맀뗄닉뿳좨뺫뿳욽뻹욷캻/닎헕뗄닉뿳좨뺫뿳욽뻹욷캻 뿳닺욷볛룱뗷헻쾵쫽=놻움맀뗄닉뿳좨닉폃뗄뿳닺욷볛룱/닎헕뗄닉뿳좨떱쪱닉폃뗄뿳닺욷볛룱 닉뿳좨닮틬튪쯘뗷헻=놻움맀뗄닉뿳좨닮틬튪쯘움에ퟜ횵/닎헕뗄닉뿳좨닮틬튪쯘움에ퟜ횵 닉뿳좨닮틬튪쯘냼삨뿳닺풴뗄붻춨쳵볾ꆢퟔ좻쳵볾ꆢ뺭볃뮷뺳뫍뗘훊닉톡쳵볾 듋훖랽램뗄뿉탐탔쫜틔쿂쳵볾뗄훆풼ꎺ ꎨ1ꎩ풴쳵볾 퓚쫐뎡뗷닩훐ꎬ튪볡돖톰헒뿳훖쿠춬ꆢퟔ좻돉틲샠탍쿠춬ꆢ풴욷캻ꆢ뗘훊뾪닉쳵볾쿠럂뗄틑돉붻뗄닉뿳좨돉붻볛ퟷ캪닎헕ꎬ닎헕뿳튵좨뗄뇪ힼ횱뷓 21
뗚죽헂 좨샻뷰움맀튻냣뺭볃쒣탍 믡펰쿬떽듽움맀뗄뿳닺풴죃닉뿳좨쪱좨샻뷰뗄좷뚨ꎻ ꎨ2ꎩ쫐뎡쳵볾 닎헕닉뿳좨뚨볛쫇헽뎣붻틗쿂탎돉뗄ꎬ늻듦퓚죎뫎탐헾룉풤ꎬ뫍웤쯻늻샻틲쯘횧엤쿂탎돉뗄돉붻볛ꆣ춬쪱튪쟳닎헕닉뿳좨뗄돉붻쪱볤ꎬ돉붻뗘뗣ꆢ쪹폃쟩뿶풤웚킧맻틔벰폐맘쇏췪놸ꆢ뿉뾿ꎻ ꎨ3ꎩ움에쳵볾 닮틬쫇볒뛔놻움맀닉뿳좨뫍닎헕닉뿳좨붻춨쳵볾ꆢퟔ좻쳵볾 뺭볃쳵볾ꆢ뗘훊닉톡쳵볾닮틬돌뛈뗄훷맛에뚨ꆣ죧맻볒죋쫽뷏짙뫍튵뷡릹떥튻ꎬ췹췹ퟶ돶에뛏늻죝틗뷓뷼뿍맛쪵볊ꆣ 믹폚틔짏쿞뚨쳵볾ꎬ뿉뇈쿺쫛램튻냣쫊폃폚뿳튵닺좨죃쫐뎡뇈뷏돉쫬쪱웚ꆣ퓚돵웚뷗뛎ꎬ튲뿉틔쪹폃룃랽램ꎬ횻쫇튪힢틢냑컕뫃톡퓱닎헕좨샻뷰움맀뗄쳵볾ꎬ쫂쪵짏ꎬ펦폃룃랽램뻟폐볲뷝ꆢ뿬쯙뗈쳘뗣ꎬ퓚뿳튵좨붻틗쫐뎡랢듯뗄맺볒ꎬ뻟폐뿉뇈낸샽쳵볾ꆢ쫽뻝췪놸뗄쳵볾쿂ꎬ늻쪧캪튻훖뫃랽램ꆣ죧맻놻움맀좨샻뷰쯹뒦쟸쳵볾뫜뫃ꆢ폐뿉릩뷨본뗄낸샽ꆢ닉톡탔쓜뷏병ꎬ뿳닺욷볛룱뇤뮯늻듳ꎬ룷쿮풴탅쾢뷏뛠ꎬ폫닎헕뗄뿳튵좨움맀믹ힼ쿠닮늻풶ꎬ퓲샻폃듋램ꎬ움맀킧맻붫믡뫜뫃ꆣ평폚컒맺뗄뿳튵좨붻틗짐늻웕뇩ꎬ룃랽램뗄펦폃뗃떽튻뚨뗄쿞훆ꆣ 쪵컯웚좨맀볛램 쪵컯웚좨샭싛펦폃폚좨샻뷰뗄움맀쪼폚웚좨샭싛뗄랢햹ꎬ웚좨샭싛쫇뷼30쓪살뷰죚톧뫍닆컱톧샯ퟮ훘튪뗄뒴탂ꆣ 튻 웚좨뗄닺짺뫍랢햹 웚좨쫇횸튻훖뫏풼ꎬ룃뫏풼뢳폨돖폐죋퓚쒳튻쳘뚨죕웚믲룃죕횮잰뗄죎뫎쪱볤틔만뚨볛룱릺죫믲쫛돶튻훖닺뗄좨샻ꆣ웚좨뗄붻틗뿉틔ힷ쯝떽뫜뻃틔잰ꆣ퓧퓚릫풪잰3500쓪ꎬ맅싞십죋뫍쓡믹죋퓚뷸탐믵컯붻틗뗄뫏춬훐ꎬ뻍퓋폃쇋웚좨샠쯆뗄쳵뿮ꆣ17쫀볍뫉삼뗄폴뷰쿣붻틗짌폫훖횲헟횮볤뷸탐뫏춬붻틗뗄ퟶ램쿠떱쇷탐ꎬ헢훖뫏춬뗄쪵훊쫇퓚캴살쒳튻쪱뿌틔쒳튻쳘뚨뗄볛룱릺싲믲돶쫛쒳튻훖폴뷰쿣뗄싴좨믲싲좨ꎬ붻틗뗄쒿뗄퓚폚뇜쏢폴뷰쿣볛룱뇤뮯뛔쮫랽퓬돉뗄쯰쪧ꆣ뻟쳥살붲ꎬ폴뷰쿣붻틗짌싲죫싲좨ꎨ붫살쓜틔튻뚨뗄볛룱싲죫닺욷ꎩꎬ틔뇜쏢폴뷰쿣볛룱뿉쓜짏헇듸살뗄럧쿕ꎬ뛸폴뷰쿣뗄짺닺헟퓲싲죫싴좨ꎨ붫살쓜틔튻뚨뗄볛룱싴돶닺욷ꎩꎬ틔좷놣쯻쏇쓜릻틔튻뚨뗄볛룱돶쫛ퟔ벺뗄닺욷ꆣ춬쪱ꎬ폴뷰쿣뫏춬뗄뛾벶쫐뎡튲펦퓋뛸짺ꎬ풽살풽뷰뗄춶믺헟뾪쪼룹뻝뫏춬볛룱뗄늨뚯뷸탐폴뷰쿣뫏춬뗄붻틗ꎬ뛸늻쫇돶폚럀랶럧쿕뗄쒿뗄ꆣ듋뫳ꎬ평폚춶믺헟뗄듳솿뷩죫ꎬ쪹뗃웚좨뗄짹폾늻병ꎬ18쫀볍90쓪듺얦풼횤좯붻틗쯹돉솢뫳ꎬ춶헟닅뾪쪼뾼싇붨틩붨솢폐ퟩ횯뗄웚좨붻틗쯹닺컊쳢ꎬ뮪뛻뷖뗄뷰죚믺릹튲늻뛏쳡돶폐맘웚좨뗄춶붨틩ꆣ 떽쇋19쫀볍뫳웚ꎬ웚좨뗄뗪춷붻틗쫐뎡뾪쪼돶쿖ꆣ퓚20쫀볍70쓪듺돵횥볓룧웚좨붻틗쯹ꎨCBOEꎩ돉솢틔잰ꎬ웚좨뗄붻틗튻횱쫇퓚뗪춷쫐뎡짏뷸탐뗄ꆣ룷웚좨붻틗짌쎿쳬퓧짏퓚훷튪놨뾯ꎨ죧뮪뛻뷖죕놨ꆢ얦풼쪱놨ꎩ짏뾯뗇맣룦ꎬ릫늼쎿쳬뿉쳡릩싲싴붻틗뗄웚좨욷훖뗄폐맘탅쾢ꎨ냼삨뫏춬뗄횴탐볛룱ꆢ떽웚죕볛룱뗈ꎩꆣ죧맻춶헟쿫 22
뗚죽헂 좨샻뷰움맀튻냣뺭볃쒣탍 릺싲믲돶쫛쒳튻웚좨뗄뮰ꎬ뿉틔횱뷓듲뗧뮰룸웚좨붻틗쯹뷸탐잢짌ꆣ 1968쓪ꎬ쏀맺뺭볃돶쿖잰쯹캴폐뗄쿴쳵ꎬ짌욷웚믵쫐뎡뗄붻틗솿튲쯦횮듳럹뛈복짙ꎬ캪쇋얤헢튻늻샻뻖쏦ꎬ풭쿈훷튪뷸탐솸쪳웚믵붻틗뗄횥볓룧웚좨붻틗쯹ꎨCBOEꎩ뾪췘탂뗄튵컱쇬폲ꆣ폚쫇ꎨCBOEꎩ퓚1969쓪울쟫쇋튻볒톯릫쮾ꎬ뛔뾪냬막욱웚좨붻틗쯹뗄뿉탐탔뷸탐쇋싛횤ꎬ좻뫳헽쪽쿲ꎨSECꎩ쳡돶쇋붨솢횥볓룧웚좨붻틗쯹ꎨCBOEꎩ뗄짪쟫ꆣ 1973쓪4퓂26죕ꎬꎨCBOEꎩ헽쪽탻룦돉솢ꎬ헢뇪횾ퟅ웚좨쫐뎡뗄랢햹뷸죫쇋튻룶탂뗄샺쪷쪱웚ꆣ폫뒫춳뗄뗪춷웚좨붻틗쫐뎡쿠뇈ꎬ횥볓룧웚좨붻틗쯹ퟷ쇋솽랽쏦뗄뾪뒴탔릤ퟷꎺ뗚튻ꎬ뛔쫐뎡붻틗뗄웚좨뫏춬뷸탐쇋뇪ힼ뮯ꎬ벴퓚뇪뗄닺뗄욷훊ꆢ볆솿떥캻ꆢ쫽솿ꆢ붻룮퓂럝뫍붻룮뗘뗣뗈랽쏦ퟷ쇋춳튻뗄맦뚨ꎻ뗚뛾ꎬ돉솢쇋웚좨쟥쯣릫쮾ꎬ쯼쓜벯훐뒦샭웚좨붻틗뗄쟥쯣뫍붻룮쫂틋ꎬ듓뛸캪웚좨뗄붻틗뫍횴탐쳡릩뿉뾿뗄놣헏ꎬ붵뗍쇋웚좨뫏춬떽웚캥풼뗄럧쿕ꆣ1975쓪ꎬ막욱싴좨뾪쪼짏쫐붻틗ꆣ뺭맽뛾쪮뛠쓪뗄랢햹ꎬ웚좨쫐뎡틑뺭돉캪맺볊뷰죚쫐뎡뗄튻룶훘튪늿럖ꆣ뻝춳볆ꎬ틑뺭폐20뛠룶맺볒믲뗘쟸붨솢쇋헽쪽뗄웚좨붻틗쯹ꆣ쯦ퟅ뺭볃뗄랢햹ꎬ웚좨퓚뷰죚쫐뎡훐뗄ퟷ폃믡풽살풽훘튪ꆣ컒맺뗄웚좨쫐뎡랢햹럇뎣톸쯙ꎬ틔잰컒맺웚좨뗄ퟮ돵탎첬쫇룷짏쫐릫쮾랢탐뗄죏막좨횤ꎬퟔ좥쓪막쫐얣쫐틔살ꎬ컒맺뗄웚좨쫐뎡뗃떽쇋뿧풽쪽랢햹ꎬ늻뷶랢탐짨막좨횤뫍죏링좨횤뗄릫쮾믲뗚죽랽풽살풽뛠ꎬ춶헟뛔듋훖뷰죚퇜짺닺욷튲쪮럖쟠ꆣ 웚좨럖캪뾴헇웚좨뫍뾴뗸웚좨ꎬ떱웚좨뫏풼풼뚨웚좨뗄돖폐헟폐좨샻퓚튻뚨웚쿞쓚믲떽웚쪱내풼뚨뗄쒳튻볛룱싲죫쒳쿮닺쪱ꎬ룃웚좨캪뾴헇웚좨ꎬ뇪뗄닺횻폐듳폚뫏풼풼뚨뗄볛룱쪱웚좨뗄돖폐헟닅믡톡퓱횴탐듋쿮웚좨뫏풼ꎬ웚좨뗄돖폐죋폫뾪돶웚좨뗄튻랽뗄좨샻폫틥컱늻쫇뛔뗈뗄ꎬ웚좨뗄돖폐죋폐좨샻뻶뚨웚좨뗄횴탐ꎬ뛸웚좨뗄싴랽횻쓜놻뚯뷓쫜ꎬ횻폐싄탐웚좨뫏풼뗄틥컱쎻폐좨샻뻶뚨웚좨뫏풼쫇럱횴탐ꆣ웚좨뗄돖폐죋뗄좨샻죋폫틥컱죋쫇늻뛔뗈뗄ꎬ캪쇋믱뗃좨샻폫틥컱늻뗈뗘캻ꎬ믱뗃좨샻튻랽탨튪뛔웚좨뗄싴랽횧뢶웚좨럑ꎬ웚좨럑뗄쫇웚좨뚨볛쒣탍늻뗃늻뷢뻶뗄쓑쳢ꆣ 뛾 웚좨뚨볛샭싛뗄닺짺뫍랢햹 웚좨볛룱벴웚좨뗄릫욽볛횵믲샭싛볛횵ꆣ웚좨뿉쪵쿖럧쿕틆ꎬ쿞훆쯰쪧ꎬ틲뛸웚좨쫇폐볛횵뗄ꎬ늢쟒웤볛횵쫇폫믹뒡닺볛룱뗄늻좷뚨탔ꎨ럧쿕ꎩ돉헽뇈ꎬ벴믹뒡닺뗄럧쿕풽듳ꎬ웚좨뗄볛횵뻍풽듳ꎬ웤볛룱튲뻍풽듳ꆣ틲듋ꎬ웚좨뗄볛횵뻍쫇캪쇋맦뇜럧쿕쯹튪뢶돶뗄돉놾ꎬ돖폐좨샻뛸늻돐떣틥컱쯹뢶돶뗄듺볛ꆣ웚좨뗄볛룱평솽늿럖ퟩ돉ꎺ쓚퓚볛횵뫍쪱볤볛횵ꆣ웚좨뗄쓚퓚볛횵쫇횸웚좨솢벴싄탐쪱뗄뺭볃볛횵ꎬ죧맻웚좨뗄돖폐죋풼뚨캴살틔튻뚨볛룱싲죫쒳훖막욱ꎬ죧맻풼뚨뗄볛룱뗍폚쿖탐쫐뎡훐뗄볛룱ꎬ돖좨죋뻍믡톡퓱횴탐ꎬ닮볛벴캪쓚퓚볛횵ꎬ럱퓲솢벴횴탐늻쓜닺짺헽뗄웚좨볛횵ꎬ퓲쓚퓚볛횵캪쇣ꎻ웚좨뗄쪱볤볛횵폖뿉돆캪쪱볤틧볛ꎬ쫇횸웚좨뗄쒿잰볛횵ꎨ웚좨볛룱ꎩ룟폚웤쓚퓚볛횵뗄늿럖ꆣ헢쫇틲캪웚좨릺싲헟쾣췻퓚떽웚죕잰뗄쒳룶쪱볤ꎬ뇪뗄막욱뗄쫐뎡볛룱붫믡퓶볓틔웚좨탎쪽듦퓚뗄좨샻뗄볛횵ꎬ평폚헢훖웚췻ꎬ웚좨릺 23
뗚죽헂 좨샻뷰움맀튻냣뺭볃쒣탍 싲헟풸틢뢶룟폚쓚퓚볛횵뗄틧볛ꆣ뛔쏀쪽웚좨살쮵ꎬ죧쫇뗈듽뗄쪱볤풽뎤ꎬ쪱볤볛횵뻍풽듳ꆣ ꎨ튻ꎩ 웚좨볛룱뗄펰쿬틲쯘 죧맻웚좨뗄뇪뗄닺쫇막욱ꎬ퓲웚좨뗄볛횵평막욱쫐볛ꆢ횴탐볛룱ꆢ떽웚웚쿞ꆢ막볛늨뚯싊ꆢ컞럧쿕샻싊뫍풤웚뫬샻뻶뚨ꆣ ꋙ 막욱뗄쫐볛 죧맻뾴헇웚좨퓚붫살쒳튻쪱볤횴탐ꎬ웤쫕죫캪막욱볛룱폫횴탐볛룱뗄닮뛮ꆣ죧맻웤쯻틲쯘늻뇤ꎬ쯦ퟅ막욱볛룱뗄짏짽ꎬ뾴헇웚좨뗄볛횵튲퓶볓ꆣ 뾴뗸웚좨폫뾴헇웚좨쿠랴ꎬ뾴뗸웚좨퓚캴살쒳튻쪱볤횴탐ꎬ웤쫕죫쫇횴탐볛룱폫막욱볛룱뗄닮뛮ꆣ죧맻웤쯻틲쯘늻뇤ꎬ떱막욱볛룱짏뎤쪱ꎬ뾴뗸웚좨뗄볛횵쿂붵 ꋚ 횴탐볛룱 횴탐볛룱뻍쫇웚좨뫏춬뗄쮫랽캴살틔쒳튻볛룱붻룮뗄풼뚨볛룱ꆣ횴탐볛룱뛔웚좨뗄펰쿬폫막욱볛룱쿠랴ꎬ뾴헇웚좨뗄횴탐볛룱풽룟ꎬ웤볛횵풽킡ꆣ뾴뗸웚좨뗄횴탐볛룱풽룟ꎬ웤볛횵풽듳ꆣ ꋛ 떽웚웚쿞 뛔폚쏀쪽웚좨살쮵ꎬ뷏뎤뗄떽웚쪱볤ꎬ쓜퓶볓뾴헇웚좨뗄볛횵ꆣ떽웚죕샫쿖퓚풽풶ꎬ랢짺늻뿉풤횪쫂볾뗄뿉쓜탔풽듳ꎬ막볛뇤뚯뗄랶캧튲풽듳ꆣ듋췢ꎬ쯦ퟅ쪱볤뇭뗄퇓뎤ꎬ횴탐볛룱뗄쿖횵믡복짙ꎬ듓뛸폐샻폚뾴헇웚뗄돖폐죋ꎬ쓜릻퓶볓웚좨뗄볛횵ꆣ뛸뛔폚얷쪽웚좨살쮵ꎬ뷏뎤뗄쪱볤늻튻뚨쓜퓶볓웚좨볛횵ꆣ쯤좻뷏뎤뗄쪱볤뿉틔붵뗍횴탐볛룱뗄쿖횵ꎬ떫늻퓶볓횴탐뗄믺믡ꆣ떽웚죕볛룱뗄붵뗍ꎬ폐뿉쓜뎬맽쪱볤볛횵뗄닮뛮ꆣ ꋜ 막욱볛룱뗄늨뚯싊 막욱볛룱뗄늨뚯싊ꎬ쫇횸막욱볛룱뇤뚯뗄늻좷뚨탔ꎬ춨뎣폃뇪ힼ닮뫢솿ꆣ막욱볛룱뗄늨뚯싊풽듳ꎬ막욱짏헇믲쿂붵뗄믺믡뻍믡풽듳ꆣ뛔폚막욱돖폐헟살쮵ꎬ솽훖뇤뚯쟷쫆뿉틔쿠뮥뗖쿻ꎬ웚췻막볛쫇웤뻹횵ꆣ뛔폚뾴헇웚좨돖폐헟살쮵ꎬ막볛짏짽뿉틔믱샻ꎬ막볛쿂붵쪱ퟮ듳쯰쪧틔웚좨럑캪쿞ꎬ솽헟늻믡뗖쿻ꆣ틲듋ꎬ막볛늨뚯싊퓶볓믡쪹뾴헇웚좨볛횵퓶볓ꆣ뛔폚뾴뗸웚좨살쮵ꎬ막볛쿂붵뿉틔믱샻ꎬ막볛짏뎤쪱럅웺횴탐ꎬퟮ듳쯰쪧틔웚좨럑캪쿞ꎬ솽헟늻믡뗖쿻ꆣ틲듋ꎬ막볛뗄늨뚯싊퓶볓믡쪹웚좨볛횵퓶볓ꆣ ꋝ 컞럧쿕샻싊 샻싊뛔폚웚좨볛룱뗄펰쿬쫇뇈뷏뢴퓓뗄ꎬ볙짨막욱볛룱늻뇤ꎬ룟샻싊믡떼훂횴탐볛룱뗄쿖횵붵뗍ꎬ듓뛸퓶볓뾴헇웚좨뗄볛횵ꎻ쇭췢ꎬ춶폚막욱탨튪햼폃춶죋튻뚨뗄뷰ꎬ춶폚춬퇹쫽솿뗄룃막욱뗄뾴헇웚좨탨튪뷏뛠뗄뷰ꆣ퓚룟샻싊뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ릺싲막욱늢돖폐훁떽웚뗄돉놾풽듳ꎬ릺싲웚좨뗄컼틽솦풽듳ꆣ틲듋ꎬ컞럧쿕샻싊풽룟ꎬ뾴헇웚좨뗄볛룱풽룟ꎬ뛔폚뾴뗸웚좨살쮵ꎬ쟩뿶헽뫃쿠랴ꆣ ꋞ 웚좨킧웚쓚풤볆랢럅뗄뫬샻 퓚돽쾢죕뫳ꎬ뫬샻뗄랢럅틽웰막욱볛룱붵뗍ꎬ뾴헇웚좨볛룱붵뗍ꎬ폫듋쿠랴ꎬ막 24
뗚죽헂 좨샻뷰움맀튻냣뺭볃쒣탍 욱볛룱쿂붵믡틽웰뾴뗸웚좨볛룱짏짽ꆣ틲듋ꎬ뾴뗸웚좨볛횵폫풤웚뫬샻듳킡돉헽쿲뇤뚯ꎬ뛸뾴헇웚좨폫풤웚뫬샻듳킡돉랴쿲뇤뚯ꆣ ꎨ뛾ꎩ 웚좨뚨볛뗄쳘뚨쒣탍 샺쪷짏ꎬ웚좨뚨볛쒣탍럖돉솽훖ꎺ쳘뚨쒣탍뫍뻹뫢쒣탍ꆣ쳘뚨쒣탍튻냣횻틀뾿뺭퇩쟺쿟엤뫏ꎬ틲듋늻탨튪랴펳죎뫎놻뺭볃뻹뫢잿볓뗄볛룱쿞훆ꆣ쳘뚨쒣탍놾훊짏쪹웚좨볛횵폫웚좨웚췻쫕틦쳹쿖횵쿠뗈ꎬ뛸웚좨뗄웚췻쫕틦쏷쿔탅삵폚붫살막볛뗄볙짨룅싊럖늼ꎬ쇭췢쳹쿖싊뇘탫튲쫇횸뚨뗄ꆣ틲듋캪쇋췪돉헢킩쒣탍ꎬ뇘탫뛔룶죋럧쿕욫뫃믲헟쫐뎡뻹뫢훐뗄뚨볛뷡릹ퟷ쿪뺡뗄ꆢ뗤탍쿞훆탔볙뚨ꆣ헢킩볙뚨쿞훆쇋헢킩퓧웚퇐뺿뷡맻뗄춨폃탔뫍쪵폃탔ꆣ 뻹뫢쒣탍뗄닺짺뇪횾ퟅ쿖듺웚좨샭싛뗄떮짺ꎬ쯼쫇내헕튻냣뻹뫢샭싛뗄릫샭뮯퇐뺿랽램ꎬ룹뻝쫐뎡닎폫헟ퟮ듳뮯뗄뷡맻살췆뛏웚좨볛룱ꆣ붨솢웚좨뚨볛뗄뻹뫢쒣탍뗄얬솦ꎬ뿉ힷ쯝떽램맺쫽톧볒냍웵샯튮ꎨBachelier,1900ꎩ랢뇭뗄튻놾훸ퟷꆶ춶믺샭싛ꆷꎬ룃쒣탍볙짨막욱볛룱맽돌쫇뻸뛔Brown퓋뚯ꎬ떥캻쪱볤랽닮캪ꛒ2ꎬ쟒쎻폐욯틆ꎬ Bachelier 쒣탍뗬뚨쇋웚좨뚨볛샭싛뗄믹뒡ꎬ떫룃쒣탍볙짨막욱볛룱맽돌쫇뻸뛔뗄Brown퓋뚯ꎬ늢퓊탭막볛캪뢺ꎬ헢폫릫쮾뗄폐쿞퓰죎볙짨쿠ꎬ쇭췢룃쒣탍뫶싔쇋뷰쪱볤볛횵캪헽ꆢ웚좨폫막욱폐늻춬럧쿕틔벰춶헟퇡뛱럧쿕뗄쫂쪵ꎬ틲뛸퓚탭뛠펦폃짏쫜떽훮뛠쿞훆ꆣ 퓚틔뫳뗄냫룶쫀볍샯ꎬ웚좨뚨볛샭싛랢햹짵캢ꎬ횱떽20쫀볍60쓪듺닅폐쇋튻킩탂랢햹ꆣ1961쓪ꎬSprenkle 볙짨막욱볛룱맽돌쫇뛔쫽럖늼ꎬ폐만뚨뗄뻹횵뫍랽닮ꆣ틔듋볙짨캪믹뒡ꎬ쳡돶쇋튻룶싲랽웚좨뗄뚨볛릫쪽ꆣ 떫쫇Sprenkle닎쫽k1ꆢk2늢캴ퟷ돶쫽솿뷢쫍ꎬ횻죏캪솽헟폫막욱풤웚뫍막쫐뗄럧쿕폐맘ꆣ춬쓪ꎬBoness붫믵뇒쪱볤볛횵뗄룅쓮틽죫웚좨뚨볛맽돌ꎬ떫쯻쎻폐뾼싇웚좨뫍뇪뗄닺횮볤럧쿕뗄맘쾵ꆣ1965쓪ꎬ훸쏻뺭볃톧볒죸뛻즭ꎨSamuelsonꎩ냑짏쫶돉맻춳튻퓚튻룶쒣탍훐ꆣ1969쓪죸뛻즭폫쯻뗄퇐뺿짺Merton뫏ퟷꎬ쳡돶냑웚좨볛룱ퟷ캪뇪뗄닺볛룱뗄몯쫽쮼쿫ꆣퟜ뗄살붲ꎬ1973쓪틔잰퓚웚좨뚨볛랽쏦퇐뺿훷쇷쫇쿈폐떽웚죕뗄막욱웚좨뗄풤웚볛횵ꎬ좻뫳내헕움맀쪱볤뷸탐쳹쿖ꆣ헢훖쳹쿖랽램탨튪뛔럧쿕놨돪ퟷ쫊떱뗄뒦샭ꎬ틲캪웚좨볛룱좡뻶폚막욱볛룱듓움맀쪱볤훁떽웚죕쫇럧쿕뗄슷뺶ꆣ좻뛸ꎬ럖엤럧쿕놨돪뷏캪삧쓑ꎬ쯼늻뷶랴펳막욱볛룱뇤뮯뛸쟒랴펳춶헟뛔듽럧쿕뗄첬뛈ꎬ쯤좻퓚샭싛짏뿉틔뷸탐퇏룱뗄뚨틥ꎬ떫퓚쪵볊훐퓲뫜쓑믲늻뿉쓜맛달떽ꎬ헢돉캪헢튻뷗뛎웚좨뚨볛뗄훂쏼죵뗣ꆣ 퓚듋웚볤ꎬ뷰죚닺뚨볛샭싛퓚퇐뺿랽램짏좡뗃쇋뎤ퟣ뷸햹ꎬ튻랽쏦ꎬ룸돶쇋뚨볛쒣탍붨솢쪱쯹탨ꆰ뻹뫢ꆱ쳵볾ꎬ죧Modigliani 뫍Miller(1958)뗄릫쮾놾뷡릹쒣탍ꎬSharpe(1964)뗄놾닺뚨볛쒣탍뗈퇐뺿돉맻ꎬ쇭튻랽쏦ꎬ샻폃쯦믺캢럖랽돌살믱뗃뻹뫢쪱뗄뷰죚닺볛룱ꎬ죧Samuelson 맘폚쯦믺맽돌퓚뷰죚닺뚨볛랽쏦뗄펦폃퇐뺿뗈ꆣ 1973쓪ꎬBlackꆢScholes뫍Merton헽쫇퓚틔짏퇐뺿랽램뗄믹뒡짏춨맽릹퓬튻룶쫊떱뗄횤좯ퟩ뫏ꎨ싲죫쫊떱막쫽뗄뇪뗄막욱ꎬ춬쪱내컞럧쿕샻싊뷨죫쫊떱뷰뛮뗄쿖뷰ꎩ 25
뗚죽헂 좨샻뷰움맀튻냣뺭볃쒣탍 살쒣쓢웚좨뗄볛횵ꆣ룃ퟩ뫏뻟폐헢퇹뗄쳘뗣ꎬ벴컞싛뇪뗄닺죧뫎뇤뮯ꎬ웤쯰틦쳘헷뚼쓜췪좫뛀솢폚뇪뗄닺볛룱뗄뇤뚯ꎬퟩ뫏뗄쯰틦폫뇪뗄닺볛룱뇤뚯컞맘ꎬ횻폫컞럧쿕놨돪싊폐맘ꎬ튲돆럧쿕훐탔뚨볛ꆣ틲듋ꎬ룃ퟩ뫏폖돆캪뫏돉웚좨믲죋퓬웚좨ꆣ볈좻뫏돉웚좨폫쯹뚨볛뗄웚좨퓚떽웚죕폐췪좫쿠춬뗄쯰틦쳘헷ꎬ룹뻝컞쳗샻풭퓲ꎬ릹퓬룃뫏돉웚좨뗄돉놾뻍펦떱뗈폚웚좨떱잰뗄볛횵ꆣ룹뻝틔짏쮼슷ꎬ쯻쏇뗃돶쇋훸쏻뗄늼삳뿋-웚뿋뛻쮹웚좨뚨볛쒣탍ꆣ룃쒣탍뿋럾쇋틔잰룷훖쒣탍듦퓚뗄컊쳢ꎬ늢쟒늻냼몬죎뫎쫜춶럧쿕욫뫃펰쿬뗄뇤솿ꎬ쪹뗃웚좨볛룱뗄볆쯣뷏캪뺫좷ꎬ듓뛸캪냼삨웚좨퓚쓚뗄룷훖뷰죚퇜짺릤뻟뗄뚨볛쳡릩쇋랽램ꆣ듋뫳웚좨뚨볛샭싛맣랺펦폃폚뷰죚웚좨뗄뚨볛듙뷸쇋웚좨쫐뎡폫헻룶퇜짺뷰죚릤뻟뗄랢햹ꆣ ꎨ죽ꎩ 늼삳뿋-쮹뿆뛻쮹웚좨뚨볛쒣탍 늼삳뿋-쮹뿆뛻쮹웚좨뚨볛쒣탍쫇퓚샭쿫쳵볾쿂ꆢ컞쳗샻잰쳡쿂췆떼돶살뗄ꎬ듦퓚퇏룱뗄볙짨ꎬ볙짨죧쿂ꎺ 1 퓚웚좨쫙쏼웚쓚ꎬ싲랽웚좨뇪뗄막욱늻랢럅막샻ꎬ튲늻ퟶ웤쯻럖엤ꎻ 2 막욱믲웚좨뗄싲싴쎻폐붻틗돉놾ꎻ 3 뛌웚뗄컞럧쿕샻싊쫇틑횪뗄ꎬ늢쟒퓚웚좨쫙쏼웚쓚놣돖늻뇤ꎻ 4 죎뫎횤좯릺싲헟쓜틔뛌웚뗄컞럧쿕샻싊뷨뗃죎뫎쫽솿뗄뷰ꎻ 5 퓊탭싴뿕ꎬ싴뿕헟붫솢벴뗃떽쯹싴막욱떱쳬볛룱뗄뷰ꎻ 6 뾴헇웚좨횻쓜퓚떽웚죕횴탐ꎻ 7 쯹폐횤좯붻틗쫇솬탸랢짺뗄ꎬ막뇪볛룱럾듓쯦믺폎ퟟ럖늼ꎬ웤탐캪ퟱ톭벸뫎믲뛔쫽늼샊퓋뚯ꎬ벴막욱볛룱럾듓뛔쫽럖늼ꎬ쟒막욱쫕틦좨뗄랽닮늻뇤ꎺ dS=ꛌSdt+ꛒSdz 웤훐ꎬꛌꆢꛒ캪뎣쫽ꎬꛌ닎쫽캪떥캻쪱볤쓚막욱풤웚쫕틦싊ꎬꛒ닎쫽뇭쪾뿳닺욷볛룱뗄늨뚯싊ꎬdz쫇튻룶winner맽돌ꎬdz=ꛒt,럾듓웚췻횵캪0ꎬ뇪ힼ닮캪쓑뗄헽첬럖늼ꆣ 믹폚틔짏볙짨ꎬ늼삳뿋-쮹뿆뛻쮹쳡돶틔쿂뷡싛ꎺ -rtC=S[Nꎨdꎩ]-Xe[N(d)]믲C=S[Nꎨdꎩ]-PV(X)[N(d)] 001200122 웤훐ꎬd=[In(S/X)+ tr+tꛒ/2]/ꛒt d= d-ꛒt 10c21 C-얷쪽뾴헇웚좨뗄떱잰볛횵ꎻ 0 S-뇪뗄막욱뗄떱잰볛룱ꎻ 0 Nꎨdꎩ-뇪ힼ헽첬럖늼훐샫닮킡d뗄룅싊ꎻ X-웚좨뗄횴탐볛룱 r-솬탸횧뢶뗄컞럧쿕샻싊 c t-웚좨떽웚죕잰뗄쪱볤ꎻ In(S/X)= S/X뗄ퟔ좻뛔쫽ꎻ 002 ꛒ-막욱믘놨싊뗄뇪ힼ닮 26
뗚죽헂 좨샻뷰움맀튻냣뺭볃쒣탍 웚좨샭싛ퟮ퓧퓚뷰죚쇬폲돶쿖ꎬ쫜뷰죚웚좨뗄웴랢ꎬ죋쏇쳡돶쇋폫뷰죚웚좨헢훖탩쓢닺쿠뛔펦뗄룅쓮-쪵컯웚좨ꎬ뾪쪼붫웚좨쮼쿫뫍랽램펦폃폚뷰죚웚좨쫐뎡틔췢뗄쪵컯닺춶폫맜샭쇬폲ꎬ룄뇤틔췹닉좡쳹쿖쿖뷰쇷램뛔쿮쒿움맀맽돌훐캴뾼싇맜샭쇩믮탔뗄뇗뛋ꎬ쪵컯웚좨놻펦폃폚춶쇬폲ꎬ냼삨뛔뿳즽뗄춶ꎬ퓚럖컶뿳즽춶쿮쒿뗄뿉탐탔쪱ꎬ죏캪풴뾪닉헟뗄뺭펪닟싔늢늻쫇튻돉늻뇤뗄ꎬ쯻쏇췹췹룹뻝쫐뎡뗄뇤뮯뗷헻ퟔ벺뗄뺭펪닟싔---퇓쪱짺닺뺭펪ꆢ쯵킡믲삩듳짺닺뺭펪맦쒣뗈ꆣ샽죧ꎬ떱뿳닺욷볛룱뗍폚쇙뷧돉놾쪱ꎬ풴뾪닉헟뿉퓝쪱춣횹뾪닉믲퓚맦뚨뗄쪱쿞쓚뫏샭뗄췏퇓뾪닉쪱볤ꎬ틔뇜쏢믲복짙늻뇘튪뗄뿷쯰ꎻ떱뿳닺욷볛룱룟폚쇙뷧돉놾쪱ꎬ풴뾪닉헟뿉믖뢴뾪닉믲퓶볓짺닺맦쒣ꆣ쯹틔폐뇘튪톰쟳쓜릻뇜쏢쫕틦쿖횵램좱쿝뗄랽램살움맀닉뿳좨볛횵ꆣ닉뿳좨뗄볛횵쫜뾪닉쓪쿞ꆢ짺닺돉놾ꆢ뿳닺욷쫐뎡볛룱뫍놾쫐뎡뗄릩쟳ힴ뿶뗄펰쿬ꎬ헢킩뇤솿췹췹쫇쯦믺뇤뚯뗄ꎬ헢뻍쿞훆쇋퓋폃쫕틦쿖횵램뷸탐맀볛뗄뺫뛈ꎬ뫶싔맜샭뗄죡탔ꆢ붵뗍쿮쒿뗄뿉탐탔ꆣ쿮쒿톡퓱좨벴쪵컯웚좨ꎬ웤ퟮ퓧쫇튻훖뷰죚퇜짺탔뫏풼ꎬ횻늻맽폫뷰죚웚좨쿠뇈ꎬ뇪뗄닺늻쫇막욱뛸쫇쿮쒿ꆣ횧뢶좨샻뷰쿭폐뗄좨솦쳥쿖퓚풴쯹폐헟뾪닉풴ꆢ돶쫛믲죃뾪닉좨뗄좨샻ꎬ쯦ퟅ뗈듽뾪닉쪱볤뗄퇓탸뫍떽웚죕뗄쇙뷼ꎬ닉뿳좨늻뛏랢짺뇤뮯ꆣ쯹틔뿳닺풴뗄볛횵뻟폐폫웚좨샠쯆뗄쳘헷ꎬ웤쪵쫇튻훖얷쪽뾴헇웚좨ꎬ뷸뛸컒쏇뿉틔퓋폃웚좨뚨볛샭싛살움맀뿳닺풴뗄볛횵ꆣ 20쫀볍80쓪듺훐웚ꎬBrennan뫍Schwrtz샻폃쿖듺뷰죚닺뚨볛샭싛붨솢쇋튻훖닉뿳릤돌춶볛횵움맀쒣탍ꎬ뛔뿳즽뺭펪맜샭뗄쇩믮탔볙뚨뷏췪좫ꎬ떫쫇욫캢럖랽돌뢴퓓ꎬ컞램믱뗃뷢컶뷢ꆣ80쓪듺뫳웚ꎬPaddock뫍Siegel뗈죋샻폃웚좨뚨볛샭싛붨솢쇋튻룶뷼몣쪯폍뫏풼뗄웚좨뚨볛쒣탍ꎬ룃쒣탍쎻폐뾼싇돖폐헟퓋펪맜샭뗄쇩믮탔ꆣ쯦뫳ꎬMoyen뫍Slade뗈죋샻폃웚좨뚨볛샭싛퇐뺿쇋닉뿳릤돌춶럧쿕뫍맜샭쇩믮탔뗄맀볛컊쳢ꎬ쳡돶쇋믹폚웚좨뚨볛샭싛뗄닉뿳릤돌볛횵움맀쒣탍ꎬ룃쒣탍쯤좻뾼싇쇋뿳즽맘뇕뫍뾪웴솽훖쇩믮탔ꎬ떫죔캴뾼싇뿳닺풴놾짭뗄맀볛컊쳢ꆣ 20쫀볍90쓪듺쒩웚ꎬ컒맺톧헟닅힢틢떽웚좨뚨볛샭싛뛔퇐뺿닉뿳릤돌볛횵뗄훘튪탔ꆣ2000쓪ꎬ헅뷰쯸붨솢쇋튻훖믹폚웚좨뚨볛샭싛뗄뿳즽움맀쒣탍ꎬ룃쒣탍횱뷓샻폃늼삳뿋-쮹뿆뛻쮹웚좨뚨볛쒣탍퇐뺿돉맻ꎬ뛸늻탨튪뷢욫캢럖랽돌ꎬ듓뛸볲뮯쇋볆쯣ꎬ룃쒣탍뷏뫃뷢뻶쇋뿳닺풴웚좨횴탐볛룱뗄좷뚨ꆣ뻟쳥뇭듯쪽늻틗믱뗃ꎬ춬쪱캢럖랽돌튲뇈뷏뢴퓓ꎬ뫜쓑쟳돶룃쒣탍뗄뷢컶뷢ꆣ2001 쓪ꎬ짲뫩뗈죋쳡돶쎺첿뾪닉좨뿉놻죏캪쫇튻훖뾴헇웚좨ꎬ쎺첿풴뾪닉좨뗄볛횵뻍퓚폚쯼쳥쿖쇋풴쯹폐헟돶쫛뫍싴쯹폐헟믱뗃뗄쫕틦ꆣ룃랽램죔좻닉폃B-S-M 쒣탍ꎬ횻쫇뛔쒣탍훐뗄닎쫽뷡뫏쎺첿웳튵쪵볊럖뇰볓틔뚨틥ꎬ늢캴짦벰뿳닺풴놾짭뗄볛횵ꆣ역뫬럣뫍맹몣붨헫뛔뿳닺뾪닉웳튵뾪닉쪵볊톡퓱컊쳢ꎬ퓋폃뛾닦쫷웚좨뚨볛볓틔쇋럖컶ꎬ룃랽램횻쫇뛔뿳닺욷볛룱뗄샫즢쟩뿶ퟶ쇋럖컶ꎬ늢캴짦벰뿳닺욷볛룱솬탸뇤뮯뗄쟩뿶ꆣ2002 쓪ꎬ헅쓜뢣뗈쳡돶쇋믹폚웚좨뚨볛샭싛뗄뿳즽릤돌춶뻶닟쒣탍ꎬ룃쒣탍볙짨뿳닺욷볛룱ퟱ톭뇪ힼ벸뫎늼샊퓋뚯뫍쫕틦캪쿖믵볛룱뗄몯쫽ꆣ쳡돶뿳즽웚좨볛횵캪쿖뷰쇷뗄헛쿖횵볓짏뿳즽럧쿕쳹 27
뗚죽헂 좨샻뷰움맀튻냣뺭볃쒣탍 쿖ꎬ퓋폃룃쒣탍쓜복킡퓋폃쫕틦쿖횵램퓚뿳튵릤돌춶뻶닟퓚훐듦퓚뗄컳닮ꎬ떫룃쒣탍늢캴짦벰닉뿳좨놾짭뗄볛횵ꆣ십틥량뫍헅죰솫냑웚좨뚨볛랽램퓋폃떽폍웸뒢솿볛횵움맀훐ꎬ쳡돶폍웸뒢솿볛횵=폍웸뒢솿쓚퓚횵+폍웸뒢솿웚좨볛횵ꎬ룃릫쪽쪵볊짏쫇뛔뒫춳쫕틦쿖횵램뗄탞헽ꆣ ퟛ짏쯹쫶ꎬ맺쓚췢맘폚웚좨뚨볛샭싛좨샻뷰움맀랽쏦뗄펦폃퇐뺿짐뒦폚웰늽뷗뛎ꎬ뇭쿖캪퓚볛룱늨뚯싊늻뇤ꆢ샻싊늻뇤ꆢ뇪뗄닺볛룱솬탸뇤뮯뫍쫕틦캪뎣쫽뗄잰쳡쿂횱뷓퓋폃B-S-M 쒣탍살퇐뺿폐맘뿳즽춶ꆢ퇓동뾪닉뫍닉뿳좨볛횵뗄움맀컊쳢ꆣ퓚쪵볊훐ꎬ폐뗄뿳즽뺭펪웚뷏뎤ꎬ튲쪹뗃닉뿳좨뫏풼뗄돖폐웚뇤뎤ꎬ볛룱늨뚯싊믡쫜떽뮷뺳뗄펰쿬랢짺뇤뮯ꎬ샻싊뇤뮯좨샻뷰움맀뗄펰쿬뻍뇤뗃뷏캪춻돶ꎬ볛룱튲믡랢짺쳸풾ꎬ헢쪱뻍늻뗃늻뾼싇볛룱늨뚯싊ꆢ볛룱샻싊ꆢ쯦믺뇤뮯뗄펰쿬ꆣ틲듋ꎬ놾컄붫붨솢믹폚쯦믺볛룱늨뚯싊ꆢ샻싊ꆢ뫍뿳닺욷볛룱맺볊뮯펰쿬뗄좨샻뷰뗄웚좨맀볛쒣탍ꎬ뷡뫏떱잰맺볊뿳닺풴닺욷볛룱뇤뮯뗄탂쟷쫆퇐뺿좨샻뷰뗄뇪ힼꆣ 28
뗚쯄헂 좨샻뷰움맀랽램-뇤늨뚯싊뗄쪵컯웚좨쒣탍 뗚쯄헂 좨샻뷰움맀랽램---뇤늨뚯싊뗄쪵컯웚좨쒣탍 뇤늨뚯싊뗄쪵컯웚좨쒣탍-쒿잰ퟮ폐킧뗄좨샻뷰움맀랽램 닉폃쪵컯웚좨램뛔뿳닺풴뗄볛횵ꎨ풴뗄좨샻뷰ꎩ뷸탐움맀뗄ힼ좷탔,평뻶뚨좨샻뷰룟뗍뗄훘튪틲쯘ퟳ폒ꆣ펰쿬좨샻뷰뗄훘튪틲쯘냼삨ꎺ캴살뿉뾪닉쓪쿞쓚뗄풴뗄볛룱쟷쫆ꆢ풴볛룱뗄늨뚯싊ꆢ뷰죚쫐뎡뗄샻싊뫍뾪닉쎿뛖풴뮨럑뗄돉놾,웤훐놾죋죏캪풴볛룱뗄뇤뚯쟷쫆믲쫇늨뚯싊쫇ퟮ훘튪뗄틲쯘,틲캪뾪닉돉놾뗄죋릤릤뻟폐릤룕탔,뛸뾪닉짨놸튲쫇퓚뾪닉횮돵뻍틑좷뚨쿂살쇋,룼탂튻쳗짨놸믹놾퓚춶닺ꆢ뾪닉횮돵뻍틑좷뚨쿂살ꎬ횮뫳뗄벼쫵룼탂듳늿럖쫇뻖늿뗄룄퓬ꎬ틲듋춶돉놾쫇돁실돉놾,뻶뚨뿳튵웳튵뗄샻죳ퟮ훷튪틲쯘쫇풴볛룱뗄ퟟ쫆ꎬ튲벴풴볛룱뗄늨뚯싊.틔쿂쫇1970-2003쓪쫀뷧쪯폍쫐뎡뗄뎤웚볛룱ퟟ쫆춼틔벰2002쓪11퓂훁2007쓪퓂11퓂쫀뷧풭폍볛룱ퟟ쫆춼: 9춼4-1 살풴폚ꎺ쫀뷧쪯폍쫐뎡풭폍볛룱뇠쓪뇭ꎨ1970-2003ꎩ -1 From : The Date Of World Crude Oil Price (1970-2003) 9 살풴:쪯폍볛룱췸,췸횷: , 2007쓪11퓂8죕 29
뗚쯄헂 좨샻뷰움맀랽램-뇤늨뚯싊뗄쪵컯웚좨쒣탍 10춼4-2 2002쓪11퓂2007쓪11퓂쫀뷧풭폍볛룱춼 -2 World Crude Oil Price Form Nov 02 To Nov 07 듓춼뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ1970쓪-1973쓪ꎬ쫀뷧풭폍뇣틋벸뫵튻컄늻횵ꎬ1973쓪쓪뗗볛룱캪3쏀풪ퟳ폒ꎬ1973쓪10퓂ꎬ뗚쯄듎훐뚫햽헹놬랢ꎬ낢삭늮맺볒럗럗튪쟳횧돖틔즫쇐뗄컷랽맺볒룄뇤뛔틔즫쇐뗄뇓뮤첬뛈ꎬ뻶뚨샻폃쪯폍커웷뷌통컷랽듳맺ꎬ1973쓪10퓂16죕ꎬ쪯폍쫤돶맺ퟩ횯뻶뚨쳡룟풭폍볛룱ꎬ훐뚫맺볒솢벴복짙풭폍닺솿ꎬ솽룶퓂뫳쪯폍볛룱풾짽훁쏀풪ꎬ쳡볛듯떽3-4놶ꎬ풭폍쳡볛듳듳볓듳쇋컷랽맺볒뗄쫕횧돠ퟖꎬퟮ훕틽랢쇋1973쓪-1975쓪햽뫳놾훷틥쫀뷧ퟮ듳튻듎뺭볃캣믺ꎻ1973쓪쓪뗗훁1979쓪ꎬ풭폍볛룱뎤웚뒦폚10-15쏀풪횮볤ꎬ듓짏춼뿉틔뾴돶ꎬ룷쓪뗄늨뚯싊튲쏷쿔늻튻퇹ꎬ1976쓪뷓뷼폚15쏀풪쎿춰ꎬ1977쓪풭폍볛룱헻쓪뒦폚13쏀풪쮮욽ힴ첬ꆣ 1979쓪뗗훁1979쓪3퓂돵ꎬ틁샊춣횹쫤돶쪯폍60쳬ꎬ쪹쪯폍쫐뎡쎿쳬뛌좱500췲춰ꎬ풼햼쫀뷧늿쿻럑솿뗄1/10ꎬ훂쪹폍볛뚯떴뫍릩펦뷴헅ꎬ쫀뷧쪯폍쫐뎡뗄풭폍릩펦춻좻복짙ꎬ틽웰쟀릺풭폍뗄럧뎱ꎬ1980쓪9퓂20죕틁삭뿋뿕뻼뫤햨틁샊ꎬ솽틁햽헹놬랢ꆣ솽맺쪯폍짺닺췪좫춣횹ꎬ쫀뷧쪯폍닺솿쫜떽펰쿬ꎬ닺솿뻧복ꎬ폍볛퓚1979쓪뾪쪼놩헇ꎬ듓쎿춰13쏀풪쏍퓶훁1980쓪뗄39쏀풪ꆣ퓚듋웚볤ꎬ쫀뷧룷뗘튲쿠볌랢쿖쇋듳폍쳯ꎬ1980쓪1퓂ꎬ얲췾뫍펢맺뗄놱몣폍쳯뒢솿틑럖뇰좷뚨캪틚춰뫍154틚춰ꎬ펢맺돉캪훷튪닺폍맺횮튻ꎬ헻룶컷얷뗄쪯폍뒢솿벸뫵폫쏀맺쿠뗈ꆣ놱몣뗄쪯폍닺솿듯떽200췲춰쎿쳬ꎬ펢쳯뫍얲췾돉캪훘튪뗄쪯폍돶뿚맺ꎬ1979쓪떽1985쓪볤ꎬ럇얷엥뿋닺폍맺뗄닺솿훰붥뎬맽쇋얷엥뿋ꎬ쇭췢잰쯕솪퓚헢튻쪱웚쪯폍뗄닺솿튲듯떽쇋뚥럦ꎬ틲듋1979-1985쓪볤ꎬ쪯폍볛룱돊쿖쿂붵쟷쫆ꎬ쪯폍볛룱훁1985쓪뒦폚마뗗ힴ첬---10쏀풪쎿춰ퟳ폒ꆣ 1985훁폚1990쓪볤풭폍볛룱쓪죔뒦폚늨뚯뷏듳ힴ첬,떫쫇듓ퟟ쫆춼살뾴,늨뚯싊뇤뮯늻듳,훁1990쓪놬랢쇋몣췥햽헹ꎬ뫅돆ꆰ뗚죽듎쪯폍햽헹ꆱꆣ떱쪱1990쓪8퓂돵틁삭뿋릥햼뿆췾쳘횮뫳ꎬ퓢쫜맺볊뺭볃훆닃ꎬ쪹뗃틁삭뿋뗄풭폍릩펦훐뛏ꎬ맺볊폍볛틲뛸벱 10 살풴ꎺ쪯폍볛룱췸,췸횷: , 2007쓪11퓂8죕 30
뗚쯄헂 좨샻뷰움맀랽램-뇤늨뚯싊뗄쪵컯웚좨쒣탍 짽훁34쏀풪쎿춰뗄룟뗣.듋뫳뗄1990쓪훁1995쓪쫀뷧풭폍볛룱뒦폚늨뚯싊뇤뚯늻듳뷗뛎,풭폍볛룱뒦폚15-25쏀풪.1999쓪쫇맺볊쪯폍쫐뎡20쓪살헰떴럹뛈ퟮ듳뗄튻쓪,쪯폍쫤돶맺ퟩ횯퓚쪧좥쇋훷떼뗘캻13쓪뫳,닉좡쇋벯쳥쿞훆닺솿뗄탐뚯ꎬ릩펦복짙ꎬ뿢듦쿂붵ꎬ떼훂폍볛듓1999쓪쓪돵뗄쎿춰늻떽10쎿춰튻슷짏헇떽2000쓪짏냫쓪뗄뎬맽32쏀풪쎿춰. 듓춼뿉틔뾴돶,ퟔ듓틁삭뿋햽헹놬랢틔살,틁삭뿋ퟷ캪훘튪뗄닺폍맺훐횹쇋뛔쪯폍뗄릩펦,맺볊풭폍볛룱튻슷매ꎬ솬탸쮢탂볍슼ꎬ쒿잰맺볊풭폍볛룱틑뺭듓16쏀풪쎿춰튻슷짏퇯훁2007쓪퓂11퓂8죕뗄쏀풪쎿춰.쫀뷧풭폍볛룱쫜쫐뎡헾훎룱뻖,쓜풴릤튵뗄춶맦쒣뗈쿠맘틲쯘펰쿬첫듳,볛룱뗄늨뚯싊쎿쓪뚼늻튻퇹. 뇤늨뚯싊뗄쪵컯웚좨램돽뿉틔랴펳풴볛룱뗄뇤뚯쟷쫆췢,뮹듦퓚틔쿂폅쫆ꎺ튻쫇ꎬ듓쿖폐뗄쫐뎡탅쾢돶랢ꎬ룹뻝풴볛룱맽좥벸쓪뗄늨뚯쟩뿶살쒣쓢캴살풴볛룱뗄ퟟ쫆ꎬ쓜릻ퟮ캪뫏샭뗘풤닢캴살볛룱ꎬ늢쟒돤럖뾼싇맜샭뗄쇩믮탔ꎬ떱뾪닉풴뗄돉놾룟폚풴뗄돶쫛볛룱쪱퇓동뾪닉ꎬ닉폃쪵컯웚좨램볙뚨웳튵떱쓪뗄뺻쿖뷰쇷솿캪0ꎬ뛸럇죧쳹쿖쿖뷰쇷램볙뚨캪뢺쫽ꎻ떱풴볛룱뗄늨뚯싊뫜듳쪱뿉퓶볓뿳즽웳튵돶쫛풴뗄쪱믺톡퓱좨ꎬ쿠펦웳튵믱뗃뎬뛮샻죳뗄믺믡퓶볓ꎬ닉폃쪵컯웚좨램뷸탐움맀믡쿠펦쳡룟풴뗄좨샻뷰쫽뛮ꎻ뛾쫇ꎬ튻떩톡퓱쇋틔쪵컯웚좨쒣탍캪믹뒡뗄ꆰퟜ쳥릹볜ꆱꎬ퓲캴살뿉틔뷏뿬뗘룹뻝탂쟩뿶ꎬ뗷헻풴뚨볛ꎬ뮻퇔횮ꎬ풴뚨볛쓜릻펵폐뷏뿬뗄랴펦쯙뛈ꎬ놾죋죏캪틑첽쏷뒢솿뗄뾪닉좨뗄좨샻뷰뿉틔쎿컥쓪움맀튻듎ꎬ죧맻횮잰좷뚨뗄좨샻뷰쫽뛮폫쎿컥쓪풤닢뗄쫽뻝폐뫜듳닮뻠ꎬ맺볒뿉틔닉좡볓헷랽쪽뇜쏢맺볒풴샻틦뗄쇷쪧믲닉좡뢺좨샻뷰뗄랽쪽듙뷸뿳튵뗄랢햹ꆣ 뷼쓪살맺볊맺쓚풴탨쟳퓶뎤잿뺢ꎬ풴볛룱뗄늨뚯싊튲뒦폚늻뿉풤웚훐ꎬ쎿쓪풴볛룱뗄늨뚯튲늻춬ꎬ쯹틔놾죋붨틩퓚움맀뿳닺풴좨샻뷰쪱닉폃믹폚뇤늨뚯싊뗄쪵컯웚좨쒣탍뛔뿳닺풴뗄좨샻뷰뷸탐움맀ꆣ 릹퓬쒣탍 닉폃쪵컯웚좨램좷뚨뿳닺풴뗄좨샻뷰쮮욽ꎬ쫗쿈탨튪쏷좷뻶뚨좨샻뷰뗄틲쯘ꎬ죧잰쯹쫶뷰죚웚좨뫍뚨볛평쇹듳틲쯘뻶뚨ꎬ뇪뗄닺뗄볛룱ꆢ풼뚨뗄횴탐볛룱ꆢ떽웚웚쿞ꆢ막욱볛룱뗄늨뚯싊ꎬ컞럧쿕샻싊ꆢ쫇럱랢럅뫬샻ꎬ뛸뛔폚뇪뗄닺캪튻훖폐탎뗄뿳닺풴닺쪱ꎬ뇪뗄닺캪뿳닺풴ꎬ횴탐볛룱캪뾪닉떥캻풴뗄춶돉놾ꆢ쫐뎡볛룱뻍쫇뿳닺풴닺욷뗄쫐뎡볛룱ꎬ첽쏷뒢솿뗄뿳닺풴뗄웚쿞캪엺ힼ뗄뿳즽뗄뾪닉쓪쿞ꎬ늨뚯싊뇤캪맺쓚ꆢ맺볊쫐뎡뿳닺욷볛룱늨뚯싊ꎬ쳹쿖싊캪컞럧쿕믘놨뗄튻훖틔쪵컯캪뇪뗄닺뗄얷쪽웚좨ꆣ 닎쫽뗄좷뚨 닉폃뇤늨뚯싊뗄쪵컯웚좨램뛔뿳닺풴좨샻뷰뷸탐움맀ꎬ쫗쿈튪좷뚨쇹듳닎쫽ꎬ뇪 31
뗚쯄헂 좨샻뷰움맀랽램-뇤늨뚯싊뗄쪵컯웚좨쒣탍 뗄닺뗄볛룱쫇맺볒돶죃뿳닺풴닉뿳좨쪱뿳닺욷뗄쫐뎡볛룱ꎻ횴탐볛룱쫇닉뿳웳튵뾪닉뿳닺풴쯹뮨럑뗄돉놾ꎻ떽웚웚쿞평쯹죃뗄뿳닺욷뗄쓪쿞뻶뚨ꎬ룷뿳즽뿉뾪닉쓪쿞뚼늻튻훂ꎻ늨뚯싊쫇튻룶럇뎣훘튪뗄닎쫽횱뷓펰쿬ퟅ좨샻뷰움맀뷡맻뗄뫏샭탔ꎬ튲맘쾵떽뿳즽웳튵폫맺볒뿳닺풴쯹폐좨죋뗄샻틦컊쳢ꎬ듓뷼솽쓪뿳닺욷볛룱탎쫆살뾴ꎬ컒맺뿳닺욷평폚돤럖샻폃맺볊맺쓚솽룶쫐뎡ꎬ죧쳺뿳쪯듳솿틀뾿뷸뿚ꎬ늢쟒폐훰쓪퓶뎤쟷쫆ꎬ틲듋ꎬ놾죋붨틩닉폃맺볊뿳닺욷볛룱뗄늨뚯싊살움맀좨샻뷰뗄쫽뛮ꆣ 닆헾늿뷼죕캪뷸튻늽쿞훆룟뫄쓜ꆢ룟컛좾ꆢ풴탔닺욷돶뿚ꎬ맄샸풭닄쇏뷸뿚ꎬ듓2007쓪8퓂1죕웰ꎬ뗧뷢싁뗄뷸뿚맘쮰평5%쿂뗷훁0ꎬ럇싁뫏뷰훆싁쳵ꆢ룋뾪헷돶뿚맘쮰ꆢ쮰싊캪15%ꎬ틲듋ꎬ캴살뿳닺욷볛룱늻쫇평컒맺뿳닺욷볛룱뗄릩탨횱뷓뻶뚨뛸쫇평맺볊뿳닺욷뗄릩탨쟩뿶뻶뚨뗄ꎬ쯹틔퓚좷뚨늨뚯싊쪱튪뾼싇맺볊뿳닺욷볛룱뗄늨뚯싊쮮욽ꎻ쳹쿖싊뾼싇닉뿳좨뿉뾪닉쓪쿞ꎬ펦톡퓱폫뿉뾪닉쓪쿞쿠욥엤뗄컞럧쿕샻싊ꎬ죧컥믲쪮쓪웚뗄컞럧쿕샻싊ꆣ 믹폚쯦믺늨뚯싊뗄뿳닺풴쪵컯웚좨움맀쒣탍 퓚듋쒣탍훐ꎬ볙뚨쒳뿳즽웳튵믱뗃쇋쒳틑첽쏷뒢솿뿳닺뗄닉뿳좨ꎬ늢폐솢벴뷸탐뾪닉ꆢ퇓동뾪닉믲붫믱뗃뗄닉뿳좨죃뗄좨샻ꎬ뿳즽웳튵펵폐짏쫶퓚놾훊짏뗄튻훖쪵컯웚좨ꎬ뿉틔샻폃췆떼뇪ힼ뷰죚웚좨뗄랽램살붨솢쪵컯웚좨뚨볛쒣탍ꆣ믹폚뿳즽펵폐닉뿳좨쪱볤튻냣캪10-15쓪ꎬ뿳닺욷볛룱뗄늨뚯싊뒦폚늻뛏뇤뮯훐ꎬ놾컄믹폚웚좨뗄좨샻뷰움맀뾼싇떽뿳닺풴뗄늨뚯싊쯦ퟅ쪱볤뗄췆틆늻뛏뇤뮯ꎬ붨틩풴뗄좨샻뷰틋쎿컥쓪닉폃뇤늨뚯싊뗄쪵컯웚좨쒣탍뷸탐움맀튻듎ꆣ틲듋ꎬ춨맽쯑벯뿳닺욷룷쓪볛룱뗄늨뚯싊탅쾢ꎬ릹퓬튻룶폫뿳닺욷뻟폐쿠춬럧쿕뗄뿉붻틗횤좯ꎬ폃룃횤좯폫컞럧쿕햮좯룸뫏ꎬ뢴훆돶닉뿳좨뗄쫕틦쳘헷ꎬ듓뛸맀볆닉뿳좨뗄좨샻뷰ꆣ (튻) 쿠맘볙짨 볙짨1 싲싴뫏풼컞붻틗돉놾 볙짨2 늻뾼싇맘뇕뫍뾪웴뿳즽쪱뗄돉놾뫍폀뻃탔럏웺 볙짨3 웚좨쫇얷쪽웚좨ꎬ벴웚좨퓚뫏풼떽웚죕닅쓜놻횴탐 볙짨4 뿳닺욷볛룱늨뚯싊ꛒ뗄뇤뮯쫇쪱볤t뗄몯쫽ꎬ볇캪ꛒ(t) 볙짨5 뿳닺욷뗄볛룱쫇쯦믺늨뚯뗄ꎬ웤탐캪ퟱ톭쿂쏦뗄벸뫎늼샊퓋뚯 d(s)=µsdt+σ(t)sdz ꎨꎩ 웤훐ꎬꛌ쫇뿳닺욷볛룱뗄웚췻쫕틦싊ꎻdz쫇튻룶winner맽돌ꎬ럾듓웚췻횵캪0ꎬ뇪ힼ닮캪1뗄뇪ힼ헽첬럖늼 ꎨ뛾ꎩ 믹폚쯦믺뿳닺욷볛룱늨뚯싊뗄닉뿳좨맀볛쒣탍 퓚짏쫶볙짨뗄믹뒡짏ꎬ짨좨샻뷰캪F(S,t),평틁쳙뚨샭ꎨIto Lemnaꎩ, 32
뗚쯄헂 좨샻뷰움맀랽램-뇤늨뚯싊뗄쪵컯웚좨쒣탍 2∂F1∂F∂F22 +σ(t)S+rS−rF=0 ꎨꎩ 2∂t2∂S∂S x−A(t)S=Ke τ=ρ(t) −B(t)F(S,t)=Keu(x,t) T12웤훐ꎬA(t)=r(s)−σ(s)dsꎬ벴 ∫t212dA(t)=σ(t)−rdtꎻ 2 B(t)=r(T−t), T1122 ρ(t)=σ(s)dsꎬ벴dρ(t)=−σ(t)dtꎻ ∫t22S∂xdA(t)∂x1 폖ꎬ x=ln+A(t)ꎬ=ꎬ= K∂tdt∂SS∂F∂udA(t)∂udρ(t)dB(t)−B(t) 맊ꎬ=Ke+−uꎻ () ∂t∂xd(t)∂tdtdt∂FK∂u−B(t) =eꎻ () ∂SS∂x 22∂FK∂u∂u−B(t)= e−ꆣ () 222∂SS∂x∂x붫틔짏ꎨꎩꆢꎨꎩꆢꎨꎩ듺죫랽돌ꎨꎩ훐ꎬ뗃 2∂u∂u =ꎬ−∞<x<+∞ꎬτ≥0 2∂x∂τ2∂u∂u=,−∞<x<+∞,τ≥02돵횵컊쳢 ∂x∂τu(x,0)=u(x),−∞<x<+∞0 폐캨튻뷢ꎬ웤뷢캪 2(x−ξ)+∞−14r u(x,τ)=u(ξ)edξ () 0∫−∞2πτ 틲듋ꎬ훕횵컊쳢 2∂F1∂F∂F22+σ(t)S+rS−rF=00≤t≤T,0≤S<+∞2 ∂t2∂S∂SF(S,T)=F(S),0≤S≤+∞T 튲폐캨튻뷢ꆣ평ꎨꎩꆢꎨ.ꎩ뫍ꎨꎩ뗃 2(x−ξ)+∞−1−B(T)−B(t)4r F(S,T)=Keu(x,τ)=Keu(ξ)edξ () 0∫−∞2πτ 33
뗚쯄헂 좨샻뷰움맀랽램-뇤늨뚯싊뗄쪵컯웚좨쒣탍 '1dS''ξu(ξ)=F(S,T),S=Ke,dξ=0'KS 웤훐ꎬ 쯹틔웚좨뚨볛릫쪽캪 2'[lnS−(lnS+A(t))]'−∞1dS−B(t)'4ρ(t)F(S,t)=eF(S,T)e∫'0S2πρ(t) () 폖ꎬ닉뿳좨웚좨캪얷쪽뾴헇웚좨ꎬ맊 ''F(S,T)=max(S−K,0) 붫웤듺죫ꎨꎩ쪽뗃 2'[lnS−(lnS+A(t))]'−∞1dS−B(t)'4ρ(t)F(S,t)=emax(S−K,0)e∫'0S2πρ(t) 2'[lnS−(lnS+A(t))]'−∞1dS−B(t)'4ρ(t)=e(S−K)e≡v−v12∫'KS2πρ(t)2'[lnS−(lnS+A(t))]−∞1−B(t)4ρ(t)'웤훐ꎬv=eedS 1∫K2πρ(t)2'[lnS−(lnS+A(t))]'−∞KdS−B(t)4ρ(t)v=ee 2∫'KS2πρ(t)'lnS−(lnS+A(t))쇮 y= 2ρ(t)lnK−(lnS+A(t))듓뛸ꎬd=−+2ρ(t)ꎻ () 12ρ(t) lnK−(lnS+A(t))() d=−=d−2ρ(t)212ρ(t) 2θz−12N(z)=edθ ∫−∞2π22y(y−2ρ(t))−B(t)∞−∞−e1'A(t)−B(t)+ρ(t)22v=eSdy=S/eedy1∫∫−dt−d22π2π맊ꎬ 2θ∞−1A(t)−B(t)+ρ(t)A(t)−B(t)+ρ(t)2=Seedθ=SeN(d)1∫−d12π2y∞−1−B(t)−B(t)2v=Keedy=KeN(d)22∫−d22π 쯹틔ꎬ뻟폐쯦믺뿳닺욷볛룱늨뚯싊뗄닉뿳좨뚨볛릫쪽캪 −B(t)A(t)+ρ(t)F(S,t)=e[S/eN(d)−KN(d)]12 () dd12쪽훐뫍평ꎨꎩ뫍ꎨꎩ쯹룸뚨ꆣ −rt−rtF=[SN(d)−KeN(d)]Q−fe12t0 () 34
뗚쯄헂 좨샻뷰움맀랽램-뇤늨뚯싊뗄쪵컯웚좨쒣탍 듓뛸닉뿳좨뗄볛횵캪 TV=F1∑t−1 () −rtN(d)N(d)N(d)e122웤훐 ꆢSꆢꆢ뗄뚨틥춬잰ꆣ쟒ꎬ뇭쪾웚좨뗃틔횴탐뗄룅싊ꆣ웤폠럻뫅뗄뚨틥벰좡횵쳖싛죧쿂ꎺ ff0ꎨ1ꎩK캪뿳즽뷸탐짺닺뗄뾪닉돉놾ꆣ떱F>K쪱ꎬ횴탐닉뿳좨ꎬ짨뫍럖뇰캪뿳즽뒦Cv폚짺닺뫍춣닺ힴ첬쪱뿳즽쯹뢺떣뗄만뚨럑폃ꆣ짨캪떥캻닺욷뿉뇤럑폃ꎬ쓇쎴ꎬ폐펯뿷욽뫢럖컶ꎬ뿳즽쇙쪱춣닺뗄쇙뷧쳵볾캪ꎺ f+CQ−KQ=fvtt0 틆쿮뫳뗃ꎬff0K=+C−vQQtt () Qtꎨ2ꎩ 캪뿳즽쓪짺닺쓜솦 ꎨ3ꎩ T캪뿳즽럾컱쓪쿞ꆣ튲쫇쪽ꎨꎩ듓t=1뾪쪼샛볓볆쯣뗄훕횹횵ꎬ웤훕횹t쳵볾TQN(d=Q∑t2)0t=1틔뿳즽ퟜ뒢솿좫늿뾪닉췪캪틀뻝ꎬ벴 () 35
뗚컥헂 좨샻뷰훆뛈뗄펦폃 뗚컥헂 좨샻뷰훆뛈뗄펦폃 좨샻뷰훆뛈뻟쳥쪵쪩랽쪽 컒맺뿳닺풴쫴폚맺볒쯹폐ꎬ맺볒펵폐뿳닺풴뚨볛뗄훷뚯좨ꎬ퓚좫쏦쪵쪩좨샻뷰훆뛈뗄뿲볜쿂ꎬ놾죋죏캪펦룃붫웚좨움맀쒣탍폫풴뗄엄싴훆뛈뷡뫏웰살ꎬ뻟쳥쪵쪩돌탲죧쿂ꎺ ꎨ1ꎩ틑첽쏷뒢솿뗄뿳닺풴ꎬ맺볒내뿳닺풴뗄뒢솿헷쫕ꎬ죃뿳닺풴뾪닉좨쪱닉폃엄싴훆뛈ꎬ뾪닉좨튻냣캪10-15쓪ꎬ떫쫇ퟮ훕뗄돉붻볛룱늻뗃뗍폚닉폃뇤늨뚯싊뗄쪵컯웚좨램좷뚨뗄풴좨샻뷰쫽뛮ꎻ ꎨ2ꎩ평폚풴볛룱뗄쾡좱탔ꎬ죋쏱짺믮쮮욽뗄늻뛏쳡룟ꎬ캴살풴릩탨쎬뛜믡룼볓춻돶ꎬ펰쿬볛룱뗄늻좷뚨틲쯘첫뛠ꆣ쯹틔놾죋죏캪ꎬ뿳닺풴뗄좨샻뷰움맀늿쏅펦룃쎿컥쓪뛔쒳튻훖샠뗄풴좨샻뷰닉폃쪵컯웚좨뗄랽램움맀튻듎ꎬ죧맻움맀뗄풴좨샻뷰룟폚죃뿳좨쪱웳튵뷉쓉뗄좨샻뷰ꎬ헾뢮뿉틔틔쪣폠뿉닉뒢솿캪믹쫽퓶쫕뿳튵웳튵뗄좨샻뷰쫽뛮ꎻ죧맻틀뻝쪵컯웚좨램좷뚨뗄좨샻뷰쫽뛮뗍폚죃닉뿳좨쪱좷뚨뗄좨샻뷰ꎬ캪듙뷸뿳튵랢햹ꎬ뿉틔닉좡뢺좨샻뷰랽쪽ꎬ뛔뿳튵웳튵뷸뗃늹쳹ꎬ틔듋살놣횤맺볒뿳닺풴쯹폐헟좨틦뗄쮳샻쪵쿖ꆣ 풴좨샻뷰뗄헷쫕랽쪽 맺볒퓚죃뿳닺풴뗄뾪닉좨쪱ꎬ본폚쳡룟뿳닺풴뗄믘닉싊ꎬ펦룃뻝뿳즽뗄뿉뾪닉뒢솿헷쫕ꎬ뿉틔룹뻝룷뿳즽뾪닉웳튵뗄탔훊튪쟳튻듎탔뷉쓉믲럖웚뷉쓉ꎬ뛔폚쓇킩킡쎺뿳훷뿉틔튪쟳쯻쏇튻듎탔뷉쓉풴뗄좨샻뷰ꎬ뛸뛔폚맺폐듳탍ꆢ벼쫵쿈뷸뗄쎺뿳뿉틔닉좡쇩믮뗄랽쪽헷쫕풴뗄좨샻뷰ꎬ쒿뗄퓚폚맦랶탐튵ힼ죫쏅볷ꎬ쪹뗃폐쳵볾뗄뿳즽웳튵믱뗃뾪닉뿳닺풴뗄폅쿈좨ꆢ벼쫵실뫳뗄쮽죋킡뿳훷업돽퓚닉뿳쫐뎡횮췢ꎬ붵뗍낲좫틾뮼ꎬ쳡룟풴뗄믘닉싊ꆣ 즽컷쫇쪵탐닉뿳좨횤폐뎥쫔뗣뗄뗚튻룶쪡ꎬ뻝즽컷쪡2006쓪3퓂7죕돶첨뗄ꆶ즽컷쪡쎺첿풴헻뫏뗄폐뎥쪹폃냬램ꆷ쎺첿풴뗄폐뎥쪹폃훷튪폐죽훖탎쪽ꎺ벴캪맺폐놾뷰ꆢ맺폐막럝뫍믵뇒뷉쓉ꆣ뛔폚쿧헲쎺뿳뛸퇔ꎬ닉좡뗄쫇튻듎탔믵뇒뷉쓉닉뿳좨탭뿉횤볛뿮뗄랽쪽ꎬ뛔폚풴솿듳ꎬ볛뿮뛠뗄쎺뿳ꆢ닉좡풴튻듎뮮뚨ꆢ럖웚럖뛎돶죃ꆢ볛뿮쯦탐뻍쫇뗄뻟쳥닙ퟷ탎쪽ꎬ뛔폚뾪닉벼쫵쿈뷸ꆢ짨놸룼탂뷏뿬뗄맺폐듳탍뿳즽웳튵뛔폚믱뗃닉뿳좨탭뿉횤쪱탨뷉쓉뗄좨샻뷰닉좡맺폐놾죫막뗄랽쪽퓶볓맺폐놾뷰ꎬ죧맻퓚컥쓪뫳뿳닺풴닉폃뇤늨뚯싊뗄쪵컯웚좨램움맀쫽뛮룟폚죃쪱뗄좨샻뷰뿉틔퓶볓맺볒뗄쿭폐뗄놾뷰ꆣ 돽쎺첿풴췢ꎬ웤쯻뗄뿳닺풴퓚틔뫳쪵쪩뗄폐뎥좡뗃닉뿳좨좨샻뷰훆뛈쪱ꎬ뿉틔 36
뗚컥헂 좨샻뷰훆뛈뗄펦폃 뷨본즽컷쎺첿닉뿳좨폐뎥좡뗃훆뛈ꎬ뛔폚듳탍맺폐뿳즽웳튵맺볒캪맄샸웤틽뷸쿈뷸짨놸ꆢ벼쫵룄퓬뿉틔틔짏뷉뗄좨샻뷰ퟷ볛죫막믱뗃맺볒막좨ꎬ뛸뛔폚튻킩킡탍믲쮽폐뿳즽웳튵뿉틔닉좡튻듎탔믵뇒뷉쓉랽쪽살쪵쿖맺볒뿳닺풴쯹폐좨ꆣ 뛔폚좨샻뷰뗄맩쫴내샭싛펦룃평맺볒닆헾헷쫕ꎬ틲캪뿳닺풴쫇맺볒쯹폐ꎬ컒맺뗄ꆶ풤쯣램ꆷ튲쏷좷맦뚨쇋닆헾풤쯣쫕죫뗄쯄훖살풴ꎬ벴쮰쫕쫕죫ꆢ맺폐닺쫕틦ꆢ쿮쫕죫뫍웤쯻쫕죫ꎬ맺볒돶죃닉뿳좨믱뗃뗄좨샻뷰헽쫇튻훖맺폐닺쫕틦ꎬ샭쯹떱좻펦룃쓉죫맺볒풤쯣ꎬ쫇닆헾쫕죫뗄튻늿럖ꎬ폃폚뛔뿳닺풴뗄뿉돖탸랢햹ꎬ폃폚뾱첽ꆢ놣뮤짺첬뮷뺳틔벰폃폚틔뿳튵뾪닉캪훷튪뺭볃살풴뗄돇쫐릤튵닺뗈ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ쿖쪵훐ꎬ믖뢴평폚뿳튵뾪닉쯹뛔뮷뺳퓬돉뗄컛좾ꆢ뫳뿳튵쪱듺뗄릤튵뮯랢햹뗄퓰죎웤쪵쫇평뗘랽헾뢮돐떣뗄ꎬ쓉죫쇋헾뢮뗄튵벨움볛쳥쾵ꎬ틲듋ꎬ맺볒평폚돶죃뿳닺풴뗄닉뿳좨믱뗃뗄좨샻뷰뗄튻늿럖웤쪵펦룃뮮맩뗘랽헾뢮폃폚싄탐맺볒펦룃돐떣뗄놣뮤뮷뺳뗈랽쏦뗄퓰죎ꆣ 웳튵죧뫎쫊펦좨샻뷰훆뛈 폫풴뗄쮰럑훆뛈쿠뇈ꎬ풴좨샻뷰훆뛈퓚웳튵믱뗃닉뿳좨쪱뻍탨튻듎탔믲럖듎뷉쓉튻뇊쫽뛮늻킡뗄뷰ꎬ뛔웳튵살쮵쫇튻룶늻킡뢺떣ꎬ웳튵펦룃쮳펦룄룯ꎬ쫊펦좨샻뷰훆뛈ꎬ뻍캢맛살쮵ꎬ웳튵캪쇋캴살뿉틔믱뗃뾪닉좨횧뢶쇋뷰ꎬ믱뗃쇋뾪닉좨ꎬ쫇튻쿮좨샻ꎬ룃좨샻뿉틔쪹웳튵퓚캴살폐쿖뷰쇷쇷죫ꎬ늢쟒쫇컞탎뗄ꎬ쯹틔웤놾훊쫇컞탎닺ꎬ뿉틔붫웤맩죫뎤웚닺뗄컞탎닺쓚ꆣ 웳튵퓚탂뗄풴뿳좨쪵쿖랽쪽쿂볓뿬ퟔ짭뗄랢햹ꎬ믱뗃뷏룟쫕틦ꎬ횻폐듓붵뗍돉놾ꎬ쳡룟풴뗄뾪랢벼쫵쮮욽ꎬ뿉틔믽벫폫컯쇷릫쮾뫏ퟷꎬ뷚풼풴퓚엤쯍맽돌훐뗄돉놾ꎻ퓚웳튵좱짙랢햹뷰뗄쟩뿶쿂ꎬ뿉틔틔ퟔ짭믱뗃뗄풴뗄닉뿳좨뷸탐죚ꎬ닉좡닺횤좯뮯뗄랽쪽ꎬ춨맽탂뗄뷰죚쫖뛎ꎬ쪵쿖웳튵룼뿬룼뫃뗘랢햹ꎬ컒맺뗄닉뿳웳튵ퟷ캪맺볒뗄믹뒡탐튵뒦폚볛횵솴뗄짏폎ꎬ떫쫇룄룯풶실뫳폚웤쯻탐튵ꎬ닉뿳탐튵뗄쫇맘쾵떽컒맺맺쏱뺭볃뗄믹뒡쓜풴컊쳢ꎬ컞싛쫇웳튵ퟔ짭뮹쫇맺볒뚼펦룃틽웰ퟣ릻뗄훘쫓ꎬ틔놣횤맺볒쓜풴뗄릩탨욽뫢폫볛룱뫍컈뚨ꆣ 37
뗚쇹헂 ퟜ뷡 뗚쇹헂 ퟜ뷡 훷튪릤ퟷ믘맋 놾컄뛔뿳닺풴뗄쮰럑룄룯뷸탐쇋퇐뺿ꎬ듓뿳닺풴뗄닺좨훆뛈벰뿳좨쪵쿖랽쪽짏럖컶쇋쿖뷗뛎컒맺뿳닺풴믘닉싊횸뇪뮹늻벰맺췢뿳닺풴맺닉싊횸뇪50%뗄튪놾풭틲ꎬ쳡돶쇋펦룃뫏늢풴쮰폫뿳닺풴늹뎥럑ꎬ붨솢내뿳즽뿉닉뒢솿헷쫕뗄좨샻뷰훆뛈,늢뛔좨샻뷰뗄뻟쳥헷쫕랽쪽벰웳튵죧뫎쫊펦좨샻뷰훆뛈쳡돶쇋헾닟붨틩ꆣ 놾컄뗄훷튪릤ퟷ쫇ꎺ럖컶쇋맺쓚췢뿳닺풴뗄닺좨쪵쿖랽쪽ꎬ컷랽맺볒뗄뿳닺풴폫맺볒뗄췁뗘쯹폐좨솪쾵퓚튻웰ꎬ뛸컒맺뗄뿳닺풴뗄쯹폐좨늻폫췁뗘뗄쯹폐좨쿠솪쾵ꎬ뿳닺풴뗄쯹폐좨쫴폚맺볒;맺췢뿳닺풴뗄쯹폐헟춨맽헷쫕좨샻뷰살쪵쿖뿳좨ꎬ컒맺춨맽헷쫕뗍솮뗄풴쮰뫍뿳닺풴늹뎥럑살쪵쿖뿳좨ꎬ늻뫏샭뗄뿳튵쮰럑훆뛈퓬돉쇋컒맺풴뗄벫듳샋럑뫍맺볒뺭볃뗄퇏훘쇷쪧ꎬ놾죋죏캪펦룃쫇붫풴쮰뫍뿳닺풴늹뎥럑뫏늢ꎬ붨솢틔헷쫕좨샻뷰캪훷뗄뿳닺풴좨샻뷰훆뛈ꎬ늢쟒뻍풭폍볛룱30쓪살뗄볛룱늨뚯싊놾죋죏캪펦룃닉폃뇤늨뚯싊뗄쪵컯웚좨쒣탍뛔뿳닺풴뗄좨샻뷰뷸탐움맀;ퟮ뫳뻍헾뢮죧뫎헷쫕좨샻뷰벰웳튵죧뫎쫊펦좨샻뷰훆뛈쳡돶쇋헾닟붨틩. 놾뿎쳢뷱뫳탨뷸튻늽퇐뺿뗄뗘랽 ꎨ1ꎩ뿳닺풴좨샻뷰움맀쒣탍훐ꎬ놾죋죏캪펦룃뻝뿳닺풴맽좥뗄볛룱뇤뚯쇏살쒣쓢풴볛룱캴살뗄ퟟ쫆ꎬ웤쪵뻶뚨뿳닺풴볛룱캴살뗄ퟟ쫆쫜탭뛠늻뿉풤닢틲쯘펰쿬ꎬ죧햽헹ꆢ뺭볃훜웚뗈틲쯘펰쿬ꎬ놾죋캴뾼싇튻킩늻뿉풤닢뗄틲쯘ꆣ ꎨ2ꎩ놾죋뛔웳튵죧뫎쫊펦뿳닺풴좨샻뷰훆뛈쎻폐뷸탐짮죫뗄퇐뺿ꎬ폐듽뷸튻늽췪짆ꆣ 38
훂킻 훂킻 싛컄뚨룥ꎬ탄쟩쟡쯉뛸첤쪵ꎬ퓚뛾쓪냫뗄퇐뺿쟳톧맽돌훐ꎬ컒쿫뛔컒뗄뛷쪦몫쪿뇭쪾짮짮뗄뺴틢뫍헦횿뗄룐킻ꎡ놾컄듓톡쳢떽싛컄뗄ퟮ훕뚨룥뚼쫇퓚떼쪦뗄뺫탄횸떼뫍쾤탄맘뮳쿂췪돉뗄ꎬ컒늻뷶톧떽쇋퓺쪵ꆢ뿭맣뗄튵횪쪶ꎬ튲톧떽쇋ퟶ죋뗄뗀샭ꆣ몫샏쪦쓇퇏뷷ꆢ뿆톧ꆢ헽횱뗄ퟷ럧뫍ퟎퟎ늻뻫뗄톧쾰첬뛈놾죋엥럾늻틑ꎡ 돽쇋컒뗄떼쪦ꎬ퓚헢벸쓪쟳톧맽돌훐ꎬ컒뮹튪룐킻뺭맜톧풺쯹폐뗄샏쪦ꎬ컒뗄볒죋ꆢ컒뗄춬톧틔벰쪦탖ꆢ쪦뷣ꎬ쎻폐쯻쏇퓚톧쾰벰짺믮훐냯훺컒뻍늻뿉쓜쮳샻뗘췪돉톧튵ꎡ ퟮ뫳ꎬ훔탄뗘룐킻퓚냙쎦횮훐움퓄싛컄뫍닎볓듰뇧뗄룷캻볒ꆢ뷌쫚ꎡ 39
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