캬웕톶 第뗚?5卷뻭第뗚?5期웚?管맜理샭学톧报놨????ꎮ????ꎮ??Vol. 5 No. 5 2??00?8?年쓪9?月퓂?C?h??in?e?s?e? ??Jo?u??rn?a?l? ?of? M?a??na?g?e?m?e?n??t ?S?e?p?.ꎮ ?20?0?8? ?便뇣利샻收쫕益틦对뛔煤쎺炭첿资源풴采닉矿뿳权좨价볛值횵的뗄影펰晌쿬分럖析컶?邹ퟞ乡짜召去믔军??(컷西낲安뿆科벼技大듳学톧管맜理샭学톧院풺)??摘햪要튪:ꎺ쎺煤첿炭资源풴采닉矿뿳权좨可뿉以틔被놻认죏为캪是쫇一튻个룶多뛠期웚、ꆢ多뛠阶뷗段뛎的뗄复뢴合뫏看뾴涨헇期웚权좨，ꎬ웤其볛价횵值쫇是煤쎺炭첿资?풴源뒢储量솿价볛值횵的뗄函몯数쫽。ꆣ뇣便샻利쫕收틦益퓚在뷢解쫍释쎺煤첿炭期웚货믵价볛格룱和뫍现쿖货믵价볛格룱联솪系쾵方랽面쏦具뻟有폐显쿔著훸的뗄经뺭济볃价볛值횵。ꆣ?通춨맽过分럖컶析便뇣利샻收쫕益틦的뗄内쓚涵몭和뫍建붨立솢其웤计볆算쯣模쒣型탍，ꎬ첽探쳖讨쇋了뇣便샻利쫕收틦益变뇤뮯化쒣模탍型벰及其웤影펰响쿬因틲素쯘来살揭뷒示쪾?뇣便利샻收쫕益틦对뛔煤쎺炭첿资源풴采닉矿뿳权좨价볛值횵的뗄影펰响쿬，ꎬ并늢通춨过맽实쪵例샽，ꎬ럖分컶析쇋了쎺煤첿炭뇣便샻利쫕收틦益뛔对쎺煤炭첿资源풴采닉矿뿳权좨?价볛值횵影펰响쿬的뗄敏쏴感룐性탔。ꆣ?关맘键볼词듊:ꎺ煤쎺炭첿资源풴;ꎻ采닉矿뿳权좨;ꎻ期웚权좨;ꎻ뇣便利샻收쫕益틦?훐中图춼分럖类샠号뫅:ꎺ?C9?3?? 文컄献쿗标뇪识쪶码싫:ꎺA??文컄章헂编뇠号뫅:ꎺ1?6?7?2?ꆪ一8?8??4?X(?2?0?0?8?)?0?5?ꆪ一0?7?2?5?-ꆪ0?4???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????Influence of Convenience Yield on the Value of Coal岛1:iningRights ?Z?O?U? S?h?a?o?h?u?i? (?X??i’ꆯ?a?n? U?n?i?ve??rs?i?t?y?? ?of?? S?c??i?en?c?e?? a?n?d?? ?Te?c?h?n?o?l?o?g??y ，ꎬX?i?ꆯ飞??n,ꎬ?C?h?i?na?)?? A?b??s?t?r?a?c?t:ꎺ T?h?e?? ?co??al? m? ?n? ?n?g? ??ri?g?ht?? ?wa?s?? r?e??ga?r?d?e?d?? ?as?? a? ?m?u??lt? ?-s?t?a?g?e?? c??o?mp??o?un?d? ?n?g?? c??a?l?l? ?op??t ?o?n?ꎬ, w?h?o?s?e?? ??????????????????????????????????????????????????ꎮ????????????????????????????????????????????????value which was the function of coal resource value. Convenience yield is of great economic value to 巳?x?p?l?a?i?n???????????????????????????????????????????????????????ꎮ????????????????????????????????????the connection between coal future price and spot price. The connotatio日ofconvenience yield w?a?s?? a??na?l?y?z?e??d.ꎮ A? ?c??a?l?c?u?l?a?ti??o?n? m?o?d?e?l? ?wa?s?? b??ui?l??t? ?an?d?? ?i?ts?? v??ar?i?a??t?i?o?n? a??nd?? i?nf?l?u??en?c?e?? ?fa?c??to?r?s? ??we?r?e?? t?e?s?t?e?d?? t?o?? ?di?s ꆪ?c??o?ve??r? ?m?e?c?h?a?ni??s?m? o??f? ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????ꎮ??????????????????the nfluence of convenience yield on coal min ng rights value. The sensitivity of ?????????????????????????????????????????ꎮ?the model was analyzed through a口 w??o?rd??s:ꎺ ????????????ꎻ????????????ꎻ??????ꎻ??????????????????coal resource; mining rights; option; convenience yield 煤쎺炭첿资源풴采닉矿뿳权좨是쫇指횸在퓚依틀法램取좡得뗃的뗄采닉矿뿳许탭?价볛双쮫因틲素쯘模쒣型탍。ꆣ由평于폚受쫜篇욪幅럹所쯹限쿞，ꎬ文컄献쿗[?3?J?对뛔煤쎺?可뿉证횤规맦定뚨的뗄范랶围캧内쓚，ꎬ뾪开닉采쎺煤첿炭资풴源뫍和펵拥有폐所쯹开뾪?炭첿便뇣利샻收쫕틦益뇤变动뚯模쒣式쪽及벰其웤对뛔采닉矿뿳权좨价볛值횵的뗄影펰响쿬?采닉煤쎺炭첿产닺品욷的뗄权좨利샻，ꎬ쫇是쎺煤첿炭资풴源资닺产쯹所有폐权좨派엉?等뗈问컊题쳢未캴进뷸行탐深짮入죫分럖析컶。ꆣ为캪此듋，ꎬ놾本컄文붫将훘重点뗣研퇐究뺿?生짺出돶来살的뗄排업他쯻物컯权좨。ꆣ煤쎺炭첿资源풴采닉矿뿳权좨价볛值횵本놾质훊?这헢些킩问컊题쳢。ꆣ?上짏体쳥现쿖的뗄是쫇一튻种훖权좨利샻金뷰，ꎬ쫇是닉采뿳矿权좨持돖有폐者헟拥펵有폐?뗄뾪닉ꆢ퇓동뾪닉뫍죃뗈좨샻뗄쫐뎡볛룱ꎬ틲?1?? 便뇣利샻收쫕益틦界뷧定뚨?的开采、延迟开采和转让等权利的市场价格，因此듋，ꎬ펵拥폐有쎺煤첿炭资풴源닉采뿳矿좨权뇣便뿉可以틔죏认为캪持돖有폐了쇋一튻?国맺内쓚췢外톧学헟者뛔对쿻消럑费탔性商짌品욷期웚货믵和뫍现쿖货믵价볛格룱?个룶多뛠期웚、ꆢ뛠多뷗阶뛎段뗄的뢴复뫏合뾴看涨헇期웚权좨?[IJ。ꆣ文컄献쿗口?，?ꎬ?2J??횮之间볤的뗄动뚯态첬关맘系쾵已틑有폐大듳量솿研퇐究뺿，ꎬ죏认쪶识到떽消쿻费럑性탔?믹基于폚웚期좨权理샭싛论퇐研뺿究了쇋쎺煤炭첿资源풴采닉矿뿳权좨期웚权좨价볛值횵?짌商品욷뚨定价볛뫏合理샭性탔的뗄核뫋心탄在퓚于폚正헽确좷认죏识쪶便뇣利샻收쫕?形탎成돉机믺理샭，ꎬ붨建솢立쇋了뇣便샻利쫕收틦益만固뚨定늻不变뇤的뗄煤쎺炭첿资?益틦。ꆣ便뇣利샻收쫕益틦在퓚解뷢释쫍期웚믵货价볛格룱和뫍现쿖货믵价볛格룱联솪系쾵?풴源采닉矿뿳权좨单떥因틲素쯘估맀价볛模쒣型탍。ꆣ在퓚实쪵际볊中훐，ꎬ由평于폚煤쎺炭첿?方랽面쏦具뻟有폐显쿔著훸的뗄经뺭济볃价볛值횵，ꎬ쳘特뇰别쫇是当떱消쿻费럑性탔商짌?资源풴、닉采뿳矿좨权뗄的돖持폐有웚期뚼都뷏较뎤长，ꎬ쎺煤첿炭资풴糠뗄的市쫐场뎡?品욷뒦处于폚溢틧价볛的뗄时쪱候뫲?t川]ꆣ。뇣便샻利쫕收틦益듦存퓚在뗄的횤证据뻝最ퟮ?供릩求쟳状ힴ况뿶和뫍煤쎺炭첿资源풴储뒢量솿的뗄持돖有폐成돉本놾等뗈因틲素쯘都뚼?早퓧由평W?O?RK?I?N?G?[?7?1于폚?19?4?9?쓪年在퓚研퇐究뺿美쏀国맺小킡麦싳市쫐?믡랢짺뇤뮯ꎬ듋쪱ꎬ뇣샻쫕틦붫늻퓙쫇뎣쫽믲헟?뎡쪱랢쿖ꆣ????????J会发生变化，此时，便利收益将不再是常数或者场时发现。BRENNAN[8于폚?19?9?1?쓪年通춨过맽实쪵证횤分럖?뷶仅뷶仅是쫇标뇪的뗄资产닺价볛格룱和뫍时쪱间볤的뗄线쿟性탔函몯数쫽，ꎬ而뛸是쫇?析컶，ꎬ랢发쿖现짌商욷品듦存믵货、ꆢ쿖现믵货볛价룱格뫍和뇣便샻利쫕收틦益횮之间컊存듦?随쯦机믺变뇤化뮯的뗄。ꆣ由평此듋，ꎬ文컄献쿗?[?3J?假볙定뚨煤쎺炭첿便뇣利샻收쫕益틦?在퓚以틔下쿂关맘系쾵:ꎺ떱当듦存믵货쮮水平욽较뷏低뗍时쪱，ꎬ쿖现믵货볛价룱格相쿠对뛔?服럾从듓均뻹值횵回믘复뢴过맽程돌，ꎬ붨建솢立쇋了쎺煤첿炭资풴源采닉矿뿳权좨估맀?较뷏高룟，ꎬ뇣便샻利쫕收틦益튲也쿠相对뛔较뷏高룟;ꎻ떱当듦存믵货쮮水平욽较뷏高룟?收쫕稿룥日죕期웚ꎺ2?0?0?8?-?0?7?-ꆪ1?7??基믹金뷰项쿮目쒿:ꎺ国맺家볒自ퟔ然좻科뿆学톧基믹金뷰资助훺项쿮目쒿?(?9?04??10?0?1?4?)? ꆤ 7?2?5? ꆤ?
캬웕톶 맜管샭理学톧报놨第뗚?5뻭卷第뗚?5웚期?2?0?08?쓪年?9퓂月?쪱时，ꎬ쿖现믵货볛价룱格쿠相뛔对较뷏低뗍，ꎬ뇣便샻利收쫕益틦也튲相쿠对뛔较뷏低뗍。ꆣ?틦益，ꎬ쿂下쏦面붫将럖分컶析쎺煤첿炭뇣便利샻收쫕益틦的뗄计볆算쯣方랽法램。ꆣ짨设?P?，?C?AN?T?E?K?I??N뗈等二?9J틔以얩农ퟷ作컯物짌商品욷ퟷ作为캪实쪵证횤研퇐究뺿?캪为?t쪱时刻뿌뿳矿닺产品욷的뗄现쿖货믵价볛格룱ꎬ，?F캪为쎺煤炭첿期웚货믵价볛?뛔对쿳象，ꎬ뗃得돶出쇋了뇣便샻利쫕收틦益폫与짌商욷品듦存믵货쮮水욽平뢺负相쿠关맘?룱格，ꎬ?γ캪为无컞风럧险쿕利샻率싊。ꆣ룹根뻝据잰前文컄的뗄分럖析컶，ꎬ돖持폐有쎺煤炭첿?뗄的뷡结싛论，ꎬ뷒揭쪾示쇋了듦存믵货솿量뛔对짌商욷品웚期믵货쫕收틦益的뗄预풤测닢?쿖现믵货能쓜获믱得뗃实쪵际볊的뗄便뇣利샻受쫜益틦，ꎬ떱当좻然也튲需탨要튪付뢶出돶?作ퟷ用폃，ꎬ늢并솿量뮯化쇋了듦存믵货쮮水욽平对뛔便뇣利샻收쫕益틦的뗄影펰响쿬。ꆣ这헢?튻在뚨定뗄的듦存뒢储돉成놾本ꆣ。돖持폐有쎺煤첿炭쿖现믵货붫将닺产짺生以틔下쿂?3?说쮵明쏷对뛔于폚一튻般냣商짌品욷，ꎬ평由폚于쳘特뚨定뗄的웚期믵货볛价룱格是쫇事쫂?룶个랽方面쏦的뗄戚돉本놾:ꎺ튻一쫇是뒢储놸备뎡场뗘地뗄的ퟢ租쇞赁费럑或믲折헛旧뻉?先쿈固만定뚨的뗄，ꎬ쿖现믵货볛价룱格뫍和뇣便샻利쫕收틦益뗄的맘关系쾵自ퟔ然좻也튲?费럑以틔벰及管맜理샭费럑;ꎻ뛾二쫇是쎺煤첿炭틲因뒢储놸备뛸而랢发生짺的뗄机믺会믡?是쫇正헽相쿠关맘的뗄。ꆣ以틔实쪵物컯商짌品욷为캪标뇪的뗄资产닺的뗄衍퇜生짺合뫏?돉成本놾;ꎻ죽三쫇是쎺煤첿炭뗄的自ퟔ좼燃导떼致훂的뗄损쯰失쪧。ꆣ짨设?δ캪为뺻净뇣便?풼约的뗄볛价格룱，ꎬ늻不뷶仅횻只폐有짌商욷品볛价룱格헢这튻-唯캨一튻的뗄不늻确좷?샻利收쫕益틦，ꎬ캪为뇣便샻利쫜受틦益폫与듦存뒢储成돉本놾的뗄差닮额뛮。ꆣ퓚在风럧险쿕?定뚨源풴，ꎬ뇣便샻利쫕收틦益튲也믡会펰影响쿬合뫏约풼的뗄价볛格룱。ꆣ由평此듋，ꎬ在퓚?훐中탔性뮷环뺳境里샯，ꎬ쯹所폐有资닺产뚼都놻被풤预웚期뷶仅只횻能쓜够릻获믱得뗃?퇐研究뺿商짌品욷衍퇜生짺合뫏约풼价볛格룱时쪱，ꎬ틽引죫人뇣便샻利쫕收틦益是쫇必뇘?컞元럧风险쿕报놨酬돪，ꎬ뇣便샻利쫕收틦益쪵实볊际뻍就돉成쇋了쎺煤炭첿现쿖货믵持돖?须탫的뗄，ꎬ튲也쫇是뫏合샭理뗄的ꆣ。쎺煤첿炭资풴源닉采뿳矿좨权ퟷ作캪为튻一种훖煤쎺?폐有者헟获믱得뗃的뗄"ꆰ막股息쾢"ꆱꎬ因틲此듋，ꎬ在퓚风럧险쿕中훐性탔环뮷境뺳里샯，ꎬ?炭첿衍퇜生짺合뫏约풼，ꎬ웤其볛价횵值ퟔ自좻然튲也쫜受떽到쎺煤첿炭便뇣利샻收쫕益틦?뛔对떽到웚期日죕分럖别뇰为캪飞??和뫍飞??的뗄每쎿一튻相쿠同춬标뇪的뗄的뗄煤쎺炭첿?뗄的펰影响쿬，ꎬ틲因듋此ꎬ，믹基폚于뇤变뮯化뗄的뇣便샻利쫕收틦益살来퇐研뺿究쎺煤炭첿?웚期货믵价볛格룱必뇘然좻有폐?풴닉뿳좨맀볛룼럻뫏쪵볊쟩뿶ꆣ???튻쪬???튻?Fτ1 = Pte(r-ô)飞，资源采矿权估价更符合实际情况。ꎬꎬ??(?l)?? ?C?O?O?N?TE??R? [JoJ뷏较퓧早뗘地뛔对뇣便샻利收쫕益틦进뷸行탐了쇋界뷧??F?튻= Pꎬ?，?eV?(ꆮt?δ勺ꆣ，ꎬ?????(2) C2 뚨定，ꎬ웤其냑把뇣便샻利쫕收틦益뷧界뚨定캪为평由폚于듳大솿量存듦货믵带듸来살的뗄?룹根据뻝式쪽。??)?뫍和쪽式?(?2)?有폐?뇣便샻利引틽起웰的뗄预풤期웚收쫕益틦溢틧价볛的뗄现쿖值횵。ꆣB??R?E?Nꆪ??l口??(?Fc?/ꎯF?c?_)??????냑뇣샻쫕틦뷧뚨캪쪵컯짌욷ퟔ좻닺짺뗄?δ튻r? 튻ꆪ一一?一斗←土ꆣ?(?3?)??NAN[8J把便利收益界定为实物商品自然产生的ꆮr[? -←τ2?? 퓶增횵值收쫕益틦流쇷，ꎬ헢这훖种퓶增횵值쫕收틦益쇷流쫇是쪵实物컯商짌品욷持돖有폐?这헢样퇹，ꎬ뻍就붨建솢立쇋了쎺煤첿炭쿖现믵货뇣便샻利쫕收益틦的뗄计볆算쯣?헟者获믱得뗃的뗄，ꎬ뛸而럇非틔以쪵实컯物짌商욷品캪为뇪标的뗄资产닺的뗄衍퇜生짺?方랽法램。ꆣ考뾼虑싇到떽ꎬ，t?到떽?t十?1?쪱时刻뿌的뗄煤쎺炭첿期웚货믵预풤期웚?뫏合约풼(?죧如웚期货믵与폫期웚权좨)?돖持有폐者헟。ꆣ쫂事实쪵上짏，ꎬ쪵实컯物商짌品욷?增퓶长뎤率싊可뿉以틔表뇭示쪾为캪(??F?叶[-튻?F?,?)/ꎯF??, =튻 ß??F?，ꎯ/?F"?ꎬ另쇭?돖持폐有者헟能쓜够릻选톡择퓱商짌品욷的뗄存듦放럅地뗘点뗣和뫍清쟥理샭时쪱间볤，ꎬ?튻一方랽面쏦有폐l??n?(?F?，十JꎯF??，)?=튻 ?l?n?C?l?十ßꇷF??，ꎯ/?F，?)ꎬ，뷸进뛸而폐有?헢这二튻点뗣是쫇非럇常뎣明쏷显쿔的뗄，因ꎬ틲此듋，ꎬ?B?RE?N?N?A?N?[?町?뗄的뚨定??l?n?(?F?旧ꎯ/?F?，?)去ꇖ::;ß?F??，ꎯ/穴??，ꎬ맊故式쪽(??3?뇭)表쪾示뗄的쎺煤첿炭쿖现믵货?틥义基믹本놾上짏成돉了쇋便뇣利샻收쫕益틦的뗄标뇪准ힼ定뚨义틥。ꆣ这헢样퇹，ꎬ只횻要튪?便뇣利샻收쫕益틦实쪵际볊上짏是쫇无컞风럧险쿕收쫕益틦与폫煤쎺炭첿期웚货믵预풤期웚?뷧界뚨定增퓶值횵收쫕益틦流쇷的뗄来살源풴，ꎬ튲也뻍就쟥清돾楚뗘地界뷧定뚨了쇋便뇣?增퓶长뎤率싊的뗄差닮额뛮。ꆣ?샻利收쫕益틦。ꆣB??R?E?N?NA?N?뗈等?[6J和뫍?P?I?N?D?Y?C?K等뗈[l?1J在퓚?움맀틔쪵컯닺?죧쪯폍ꆢ춭뿳뫍쳬좻웸뗈?캪?2?? 煤쎺炭첿便뇣利샻收쫕益틦变뇤动뚯模쒣型탍?评估以实物资产(如石油、铜矿和天然气等)为标뇪的뗄资产닺的뗄实쪵物컯期웚权좨(?例샽如죧石쪯油폍开뾪采닉合뫏约풼、ꆢ石쪯油폍?式쪽?(3?)?表뇭明쏷，ꎬ볆计쯣算쎺煤첿炭뇣便샻利쫜受틦益뇘必须탫借뷨助훺于폚?储뒢量솿资产닺和뫍矿뿳山즽资产닺价볛值횵等뗈)?时쪱，ꎬ죏认캪为퓶增횵值收쫕益틦?煤쎺炭첿웚期货믵价볛格룱数쫽据뻝。ꆣ我컒国맺日쒿前잰的뗄煤쎺炭첿现쿖货믵交붻易틗?流쇷主훷要튪由평2?个룶部늿分럖组ퟩ成돉:ꎺ튻一쫇是资풴源펵拥폐有者헟从듓暂퓝?市쫐场뎡主훷要튪有폐陕짂西컷省쪡大듳宗ퟚ煤쎺炭첿交붻易틗市쫐场뎡?(?20?0?6?年쓪?时쪱的뗄资源풴短뛌缺좱中훐获믱得뗃的뗄好뫃处뒦;ꎻ뛾二쫇是캬维돖持便뇣利샻收쫕?成돉立솢)?ꆢ、쟘秦믊皇떺岛몣海퓋运쎺煤첿炭붻交틗易市쫐场뎡(?2?0?0?7?年쓪成돉?益틦生짺产닺能쓜力솦产닺生짺的뗄收쫕益틦。ꆣ例샽如죧，ꎬ쎺煤첿炭资源풴쫇是→튻种훖?立솢)?ꆢ、첫太풭原쎺煤첿炭붻交틗易中훐心탄(?2?0?0?7?쓪年成돉立솢)?，ꎬ틔以벰及许탭?耗뫄竭뷟性탔的뗄不늻可뿉再퓙生짺资源풴，ꎬ웤其쾡稀좱缺돌程度뛈必뇘将붫不늻断뛏?多뛠地뗘方랽煤쎺炭첿交붻易틗市쫐场뎡，ꎬ基믹本놾上짏处뒦于폚"ꆰ诸훮侯뫮割룮据뻝月ꆱ?提쳡高룟，ꎬ평由듋此붫将믡会볓加듳大쎺煤炭첿价볛格룱的뗄波늨动뚯和뫍上짏升짽。ꆣ维캬?状ힴ态첬，ꎬ쎻没폐有좫全맺国탔性뗄的煤쎺炭첿交붻易틗市쫐场뎡，ꎬ룼更쎻没폐有煤쎺炭첿?持돖其웤生짺产닺能쓜力솦产닺生짺的뗄收쫕益틦主훷要튪有폐2?个룶方랽面쏦:ꎺ①ꋙ?期웚货믵市쫐场뎡，ꎬ튲也ퟔ自좻然쎻没폐有쎺煤첿炭쿖现货믵价볛格룱指횸数쫽和뫍期웚?商짌品욷生짺产닺者헟不늻可뿉能쓜瞬쮲时쪱关맘闭뇕或믲开뾪启웴生짺产닺线쿟，ꎬ需탨?货믵价볛格룱。ꆣ这헢样퇹便뇣为캪建붨立솢我컒国맺煤쎺炭첿便뇣利샻受쫜益틦变뇤动뚯?要튪-튻定뚨的뗄存듦货믵作ퟷ为캪风럧险쿕储뒢备놸，ꎬ헢这튻一点뗣对뛔于폚资产닺?模쒣型탍带듸来살了쇋一튻定뚨的뗄难쓑度뛈Oꆣ但떫是쫇组ퟩ建붨全좫国맺性탔的뗄煤쎺?专用폃性탔强잿、ꆢ짺生닺产훜周웚期뎤长뫍和럧风쿕险듳大的뗄能쓜源풴生짺产닺与폫?炭첿交붻易틗市쫐场뎡和뫍煤쎺炭첿期웚贷믵市쫐场뎡已틑是쫇必뇘然좻趋쟷势쫆。ꆣ考뾼?开뾪发랢企웳业튵尤폈其웤如죧此듋Oꆣ例샽如죧，ꎬ틔以쎺煤첿炭ퟷ作캪为풭原料쇏的뗄煤쎺?虑싇到떽纽얦约풼商짌品욷期웚货믵交붻易틗所쯹推췆出돶的뗄煤쎺炭첿期웚货믵交붻?化뮯工릤企웳业튵，ꎬ펵拥폐有쎺煤첿炭듦存믵货뿉可틔以놣保횤证짺生产닺线쿟的뗄连솬?易틗，ꎬ쫇是쒿日잰前뇈比뷏较돉成熟쫬的뗄煤쎺炭첿期웚货믵交붻易틗市쫐场뎡，ꎬ因틲?续탸运퓋行탐;ꎻꋚ②퓚在횧支뢶付튻一定뚨的뗄维캬持돖成돉本놾后뫳，ꎬ쪵实际볊上짏等뗈?此듋，ꎬ톡选좡取룃该붻交易틗所쯹2?0?0?4?年쓪1?月퓂至훁2?0?0?7?年쓪1?2?月퓂的뗄?于폚给룸予폨了쇋存듦货믵生짺产닺者헟一튻个룶开뾪启웴期웚权좨，ꎬ即벴可뿉根룹据뻝?交붻割룮期웚限쿞为캪1?个룶月퓂的뗄煤쎺炭첿期웚货믵数쫽据뻝和뫍现쿖货믵价볛格룱?市쫐场뎡行탐情쟩灵쇩活믮地뗘选톡取좡生짺产닺策닟略싔和뫍快뿬速쯙地뗘投춶入죫生짺?数쫽据뻝，ꎬ좡取쏀美맺国솪联냮邦믹基准ힼ利샻率싊为캪4??%，ꎬ퓋运폃用式쪽(?3?)?可뿉?产닺，ꎬ쳡提룟高뛔对쫐市场뎡的뗄反랴应펦速쯙度뛈，ꎬ以틔赢펮取좡先쿈机믺，ꎬ掌헆握컕?以틔得뗃到떽煤쎺炭첿便뇣利샻收益쫕变틦化뇤图뮯(춼见?图볻1춼)?。?ꆣ?主훷动뚯权좨οꆣ?从듓图춼1?可뿉以틔发랢现쿖:ꎺ늻不뇤变뗄的뇣便샻利收쫕益틦仅뷶仅뷶在퓚?上짏述쫶分럖析컶，ꎬ횻只쫇是듓从뚨定탔性的뗄角뷇度뛈理샭解뷢便뇣利샻收쫕?非럇常뎣严퇏格룱的뗄假볙设짨下쿂成돉立솢;ꎻ쎺煤첿炭뇣便利샻收쫕益틦将붫趋쟷于폚?ꆤ 7?2?6? ꆤ ?
캬웕톶 뇣便利샻收쫕益틦对뛔煤쎺炭첿资源풴采닉矿뿳权좨价볛值횵的뗄影펰响쿬分럖析컶一ꆪꆪ一邹ퟞ绍짜辉믔??Oꆤ. ?1?2? 펵拥폐有쎺煤炭첿的뗄需탨求쟳也튲会믡日죕益틦增퓶强잿，ꎬ这헢就뻍提쳡高룟了쇋由평??ꎮ???폚于펵拥폐有쪵实쪵实퓚在퓚在的뗄煤쎺炭첿现쿖货믵而뛸获믱取좡的뗄便뇣利샻收쫕? 틦耸注。ꆣ?솿求?\叫ꆣ恻ꆤ誓ꆣ?言旧思O. 08 ?(2?)?较뷏高룟的뗄煤쎺炭첿价볛格룱波늨动뚯率싊，ꎬ붫将떼导훂致为캪缓뮺?췻ꆣ。ꎮ.?06?돥冲쎺煤첿炭닺产쿺销쎬矛盾뛜而뛸储뒢备놸可뿉开뾪采닉储뒢量솿的뗄需탨求쟳增퓶?加。由于煤炭资源属于耗竭性资源，加之日益突?0ꎮ.0?4??볓ꆣ평폚쎺첿풴쫴폚뫄뷟탔풴ꎬ볓횮??틦춻? 돶出的뗄能쓜游풴、릩供탨需쎬矛뛜盾ꎬ，듓从뛸而쪹使뗃得쎺煤첿炭资풴源쾡稀좱缺性탔??0ꆤ.0?2?? 볓加大듳，ꎬ폫与듋此춬同쪱时쫜受쪯石폍油、ꆢ쳬天좻然웸气뫍和뫋核쓜能뗈等可뿉쳦替代듺??。?탔性能쓜源풴供릩求쟳的뗄影펰响쿬，ꎬ튲也믡会떼导훂致쎺煤첿炭资源풴储뒢量솿价볛??6? ?1?2? 1??8? ?24?? ?????????30 36 12 쪱볤ꎯ퓂?횵值的뗄波늨动뚯。ꆣ?时间/月?(?3)?듦存货믵쮮水平욽直횱接뷓影펰响쿬便뇣利샻收쫕益틦。ꆣ便뇣利샻收쫕?춼图?1쎺煤炭첿便뇣利샻收쫕益틦变뇤化뮯图춼?(?2?0?0?4ꆪ-?0?2?-?0?1ꆫ~2?0?0?7?-ꆪ0?8?-?0?1?)??힢ꎺ쫽뻝살풴폚얦풼짌욷웚믵붻틗쯹?틦益与폫储뒢量솿水쮮平욽存듦在퓚反랴向쿲关맘系쾵，ꎬ퓚在튻-뚨定的뗄持돖有폐成돉?注:数据来源于纽约商品期货交易所놾本下쿂，ꎬ뒢储솿量쮮水욽平풽越룟高，ꎬ뇟边볊际뇣便샻利쫕收틦益풽越킡小。ꆣ떫但是쫇?튻一均뻹值횵水쮮平욽，ꎬ뻟具폐有明쏷显쿔的뗄均뻹值횵回믘归맩趋쟷势쫆。ꆣ?GI??B?随쯦ퟅ着쎺煤炭첿资源풴剩쪣余폠可뿉开뾪采닉年쓪限쿞的뗄缩쯵短뛌句ꎬ便뇣利샻收쫕??S?O?N等뗈?=12ꆣ?J对뛔一튻石쪯油폍衍퇜生짺合뫏约풼估맀价볛时쪱，ꎬ뻜拒绝뻸了쇋便뇣?틦益뛔对煤쎺炭첿资掘풴开뾪采닉权좨的뗄影펰响쿬逐훰渐붥减복弱죵，ꎬ在퓚采닉矿뿳?샻利收쫕益틦恒뫣定뚨的뗄假볙设짨，ꎬ늢并랢发쿖现풭原폍油뇣便利샻收쫕益틦在퓚长뎤?权좨到떽期웚之횮日죕，ꎬ뇣便利샻收쫕益틦趋쟷近뷼于폚零쇣。ꆣ?期웚范랶围캧内쓚，ꎬ붫将쟷趋于폚一튻均뻹衡뫢水쮮平욽。ꆣH?E?I??N?KE?L?뗈等?[13J컄文献쿗?[3?J?在퓚便뇣샻利收쫕益틦服럾从듓O?r?n?s?t?e?i?n-ꆪ?Uh?l?e??n? 랢发现쿖돖持有폐石쪯油폍获믱取좡的뗄便뇣利샻收쫕益틦服럾从듓?Or?n?s?t?e?i??n??be?c??k뻹均值횵回믘复뢴过맽程돌的뗄基믹础뒡上짏，ꎬ붨建솢立了쇋믹基于폚随쯦机믺??Uh?l?e?n?b?e?c?k?뻹均值횵回믘复뢴过맽程돌。ꆣ?MA?Z?A?H?E?R?I??[1?'J쪹{吏폃用?便뇣利샻收쫕益틦的뗄煤쎺炭첿资源풴采닉矿뿳权좨估맀价볛模쒣型탍，ꎬ并늢通춨过맽??AR?F??I?MA?-ꆪ?G?A?R?C?HA?쒣模型탍估맀计볆原풭油폍、ꆢ컞元잦铅汽웻油폍?튻一实쪵例샽进뷸行탐了쇋运퓋用폃，ꎬ듓从훐中랢发쿖现쇋了맀估볛价뷡结果맻皆뷔大듳?和뫍取좡暖얯油폍便뇣利샻收쫕益틦的뗄持돖续탸性탔和뫍波늨动뚯性탔，ꎬ뷡结果맻说쮵?于폚퓋运用폃收쫕益틦现쿖值횵法램和뫍单떥因틲素쯘模쒣型탍计볆算쯣的뗄结뷡果맻，ꎬ?쏷明쯹所폐有便뇣利샻收쫕益틦都뚼具뻟有폐均뻹值횵回믘复뢴的뗄特쳘性탔。ꆣ从듓市쫐?这헢是쫇因틲为캪煤쎺炭첿现쿖货믵便뇣利샻收쫕益틦的뗄增퓶加볓提쳡高룟了쇋采닉矿뿳?场뎡的뗄实쪵际볊情쟩况뿶来살看뾴，ꎬ쎺煤첿炭볛价룱格뫍和쪯石油폍价볛格룱变뇤化뮯?权좨执횴行탐的뗄概룅率싊。ꆣ在퓚该룃实쪵例샽中훐，ꎬ닉采用폃同춬期웚?Gl?o?b?a?l?ꆪ?뻟具有폐较뷏强잿的뗄协킭同춬性탔，ꎬ쯹所틔以쎺煤첿炭뇣便샻利收쫕益틦的뗄变뇤动뚯??co?a?l?쎺煤炭첿价볛格룱指횸数쫽，ꎬ샻利用폃式쪽?(3?)?可뿉以틔得뗃到떽煤쎺炭첿现쿖?服럾从듓O?r?n?s?t?e?i?n?-??Uh?l?e?n?b?e?c?k?均뻹횵值回믘复뢴过맽程돌是쫇合뫏理샭?货믵便뇣利샻收쫕益틦的뗄变뇤化뮯图춼(?见볻图춼2?)?。ꆣ?的뗄，ꎬ벴E!P? d??δ튻二是횾?何?튻一们??也??十?σ??d?Z。ꆣ?10 쪽式中훐，ꎬ?δ为캪煤쎺炭첿便뇣利샻收쫕益틦;ꎻ?日캪为뎤长웚期욽平뻹均쎺煤炭첿便뇣?汉\相8 利샻收쫕益틦;ꎻ쫇k为캪调뗷整헻速쯙度뛈，ꎬ쯼它뗄的듳大킡小表뇭示쪾了쇋平욽均뻹回믘?ꏜ?gp뢴떽?뗄돌뛈ꎻ?캪뇣샻쫕틦뗄쮲쪱뇪ힼ닮ꆣ?6 复到G的程度卢为便利收益的瞬时标准差。再崽?탍?4 ??뇣샻쫕틦뛔쎺첿풴닉뿳좨볛횵뗄펰쿬?2 3 便利收益对煤炭资源采矿权价值的影响。듓뇣샻쫕틦뗄ퟩ돉살뾴ꎬ풴쾡좱탎돉뗄?6?? ????????????????????????12 18 24 30 48 36 42 54 从便利收益的组成来看，资源稀缺形成的时쪱间컊/ꎯ月퓂?收쫕益틦自ퟔ然좻应펦归맩于폚资源풴所쯹有폐者헟。ꆣ根룹据뻝?B??，二튻P??，튻???ꎬ퓚뛖쎺췪좫돉놾만뚨늻뇤뗄쳵볾쿂ꎬ쎺첿쿖?图춼2?煤쎺炭첿现쿖货믵便뇣利샻收쫕益틦变뇤化뮯图춼?C"在吨煤完全成本固定不变的条件下，煤炭现(?2??0?01?ꆪ-?0?1?-?0?1ꆫ~2?0?0?5?-?0?7?-ꆪ0?1?)? 货믵获믱取좡的뗄便뇣利샻收쫕益틦也튲自ퟔ然좻下쿂沉돁到떽煤쎺炭첿资源풴储뒢量솿?볛횵짏ꎬ벴떱쎺첿쿖믵믱좡뗄뇣샻쫕틦퓶볓ꎬ쎺?本놾文컄在퓚该룃模쒣型탍的뗄基믹础뒡上짏，ꎬ뛔对煤쎺炭첿现쿖货믵便뇣利샻?价值上，即当煤炭现货获取的便利收益增加，煤첿풴뒢솿볛횵튲퓶볓ꆣ헢쮵쏷쎺첿풴뒢솿?收쫕益틦取좡不늻同춬的뗄值횵时쪱，ꎬ뿉可뗃得돶出쎺煤炭첿资源풴采닉矿뿳权좨估맀?炭资源储量价值也增加。这说明煤炭资源储量볛횵폫뇣샻쫕틦쫇헽쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ룹뻝?튻?价볛结뷡果맻，ꎬ볻见图춼3?ꆣ?价值与便利收益是正相关关系O根据V，二0??????튻?ꆣꎬ??ꎬ쎺첿쿖믵뇣샻쫕틦폫닉뿳좨?图춼3?也튲进뷸一튻步늽说쮵明쏷了쇋煤쎺炭첿现쿖货믵便뇣利샻收쫕益틦对max(B-Co，O)，煤炭现货便利收益与采矿权뛔?T 볛횵튲펦쫇헽쿠맘뗄ꆣ쪵볊훐ꎬ쎺첿쿖믵뇣샻쫕?煤쎺炭첿资源풴采닉矿뿳权좨价볛值횵存듦在퓚比뇈较뷏显쿔著훸的뗄影펰响쿬。ꆣ?价值也应是正相关的。实际中，煤炭现货便利收益틦是쫇在퓚开뾪采닉戚돉本놾基믹础뒡上짏，ꎬ쎺煤첿炭쿖现믵货볛价格룱对뛔煤쎺炭첿?4? ?结뷡论싛?期웚货믵价볛格룱的뗄调뗷整헻比뇈率싊。ꆣ煤쎺炭첿现쿖货믵便뇣利샻收쫕益틦的뗄影펰?쿬틲쯘뷏캪뢴퓓ꎬ떫훷튪좡뻶폚쎺첿볛룱ꆢ쎺첿?建붨立솢基믹于폚期웚权좨的뗄煤쎺炭첿资源풴采닉矿뿳权좨估맀价볛模쒣型탍?响因素较为复杂，但主要取决于煤炭价格、煤炭볛룱늨뚯싊뫍쎺첿듦믵쮮욽ꆣ쮵쏷죧쿂ꎺ?必뇘须탫考뾼虑싇便뇣利샻收쫕益틦变뇤化뮯，ꎬ늻不쓜能简볲单떥地뗘假볙定뚨便뇣利价格波动率和煤炭存货水平。说明如下:샻????뷏룟뗄쎺첿볛룱랴펳쇋쎺첿릩룸뫍탨?收쫕益틦为캪常뎣数쫽或믲者헟为캪零쇣。ꆣ尽뺡管맜便뇣利샻收쫕益틦的뗄变뇤化뮯比(1)较高的煤炭价格反映了煤炭供给和需뇈?쟳뗄늻욽뫢ꆣ쯦ퟅ쎺첿릩룸뗄죕틦뛌좱ꎬ죋쏇뛔?较뷏复뢴杂퓓，ꎬ떫但쿖现폐有쪵实횤证럖分컶析뻹均뇭表明쏷煤쎺炭첿便뇣利샻收쫕益틦?求的不平衡。随着煤炭供给的日益短缺，人们对ꆤ???ꆤ? 727
캬웕톶 맜管샭理톧学놨报뗚第?5뻭卷뗚第?5웚期?2?0?0?8쓪年?9퓂月?ꎮ?ꏜ??듏?RE죵uUrQJ죵υF?1b1AQU7?ꇞ뚢?릪쟹??P?r?e?f?e?r?e?n?c?e?s? ?o?f ?S??to?r?a?g?e? [?]?]ꎮ. ?E?c?o?n?o?m?ic? ?J?o?u?r?n?a?lꎬ,? 1?9?9?7ꎬ? , ????????ꎺ?????ꆫ?????ꎮ?107(443): 1 009~1 022. 何\叫出古平时耐????????????????ꎮ?????????????????????????????ꆪ?口OJSCHWARTZ E S. The Stochastic Behavior of Com›飞???????????ꎺ?????????????????????????????????ꆪ?4々AAY4A4Lqdqοmodity Prices: Implications for Valuation and Hedg t民KMRUqd1iny?i?n?g?[?J?]ꎮ.? T?h?e? ?J?o?u?r?n?a?l ?o?f? ?F?i?n?a?口?c?eꎬ,? 1?9?6?6ꎬ ,? 5?2 ?(? 3?)ꎺ :? 1?2? 2ꆫ ~? 紧想我继???ꎮ?134 一边「标准差标准差 PINDYCK B, ROBERT S. Uncertainty and Ex 巧t?h?a?u?s?t?i?b?le? ?R?e?s?o?u?r?c?e? ?M?a?r?k?e?t? ??ꎮ????????????????ꆪ?[J]. J ournal of Econom›?ꎬ????ꎬ??????ꎺ?????ꆫ?????ꎮ?ic,1980,32(88):1 203~1 225. 便利收益????????????ꎬ????????????ꎮ????????????????[12J GIBSON R, SCHW ARTZ E S. Stochastic Conve 춼图?3늻不춬同쎺煤첿炭뇣便샻利쫕收틦益뇤变뚯动뇪标ힼ准닮差쿂下???????????????????????????????????????????nience Yield and the Pricing of Oil Contingency 뗄的쎺煤첿炭资풴源닉采뿳矿좨权볛价횵值??C?l?a?im?s? [?J?]ꎮ. ?J?o?u?r?n?a?l ?o?f? ?F?i?n?a?n?c?eꎬ, ?1?9?8?9 ꎬ, ?1?5 ?(?4?5?) ꎺ: ?9?5 ?9ꆫ ~? 럾듓뻹횵믘뢴맽돌ꎬ뻝듋붨솢뗄믹폚쯦믺뇣샻????ꎮ?976. 服从均值回复过程，据此建立的基于随机便利쫕틦뗄쎺첿풴닉뿳좨맀볛쒣탍쫇럻뫏쪵볊??????????????ꎬ????????ꎬ??????????ꎮ???ꆪ?[13J HEINKEL R,HOWE M E,HUGHES J S . Com›收益的煤炭资源采矿权估价模型是符合实际뗄ꆣ뇣샻쫕틦뛔쎺첿풴닉뿳좨볛횵뗄펰쿬돌튻??????ꎺ??????????????????????????????????????modity: The Convenì巳nceYield as an Option Profit 的。便利收益对煤炭资源、采矿权价值的影响程'뛈훷튪좡뻶폚쎺첿볛룱ꆢ쎺첿볛룱늨뚯싊뫍쎺????ꎮ????????????????????????????ꎬ????ꎬ?????ꎺ?[J]. The .Tournal of Futures Markets, 1990, 10 (3): 度主要取决于煤炭价格、煤炭价格波动率和煤첿듦믵쮮욽ꎬ헢킩틲쯘뗄뇤뮯붫횱뷓뒫떼ퟷ폃??5?1?9ꆫ~5?3?3?.ꎮ? 炭存货水平，这些因素的变化将直接传导作用폚뇣샻쫕틦ꎬ뷸뛸펰쿬닉뿳좨뗄볛횵ꆣ??[1??4?J ?M?A?Z?A?H?E?R?I? ?Aꎮ. ?C?o?n?v?e?n?ie?n?c?e? ?Y?i?e?ldꎬ,?M?e?a?n? ?R?e?v?e?r?t?in?g? 于便利收益，进而影响采矿权的价值。?????ꎬ??????????????????????????????????????Prices, and Long Memory in the Petroleum Market 뿚[J?].ꎮ ?A?p?pl?i?e?d? ?F?in?an??c?ia?l ?E?c?o?n?o?mi?c?sꎬ, 1??9?99?ꎬ,?9 ?(?的?ꎺ:?3?1ꆫ~?닎参?考뾼?文컄?献쿗??5?0ꎮ.? ?[l?J?헅张뷰金锁쯸，ꎬퟞ邹짜绍믔辉ꎮ.쎺煤첿炭资풴源닉采뿳矿좨权웚期좨权볛价횵值탎形돉成믺机理샭??뇠벭?맹?(编辑郭惜)[???]ꎮ]컷.낲西뿆安벼科技듳大톧学톧学놨报ꎺ:ퟔ自좻然科뿆学톧版냦，ꎬ?2?00?6?ꎬ，?3?6(??1)?ꎺ:? ?37??5ꆫ~3?8?0?.ꎮ? ?[?2 ?J Z??H?A?N?G? ?J? ?s,ꎬ ?Z?O?U? ?S? H?.ꎮ ?Th?e?? ?On??e?-f??a?c?t?o?r? ?Mo?d?e?l? o??f? ??????????????????????????????????????????????作ퟷ者헟简볲介뷩:ꎺ邹ퟞ绍짜辉믔C1???9?7?6?~)?ꎬ，쓐男ꎬ，쯄四??川듯达훝州죋人ꆣ。컷西낲安뿆科벼技大듳?Valuating Mining Rights of Coal Resources Based on ????????????????ꎯꎯ?????????ꎬ?????????ꎬ?톧学(?컷西낲安市쫐?71?0?0?5?4?)?管맜理샭学톧院풺讲붲师쪦。ꆣ퇐研究뺿方랽向쿲为캪资源풴经뺭?Option Theory [C丁/!ZHANG H R. ZHANG S D, ???????ꎮ???????????????????????????????????ꎺ?济볃管맜理샭。ꆣ?GUO S F. Advances in Management of Technology: T?h?e?? I?n?t?e?r?n?a?t?i?on?a?l? C??on?f?e?r?e?n?c?e?? o?n??岛?1?a?n?a?g?e?me?n?t??o?f?? T?e?c?h?n?o?l?o?g?y?.ꎮ T?a?i?y??u?a?n:ꎺ A?u?s?s?i?no? ?A?c?a?d?e?m?i?c? ?P?u?b?l?i?sh?i?ng? ?H?o?u?s?e?,ꎬ 2?0?0?6?:ꎺ 1? ~ꆫ 5?.ꎮ ?[?3?J? Z?H?A?N?G?? J? ?S?,ꎬZ??OU?? S? ?H?,ꎬS??HI?? X? ?M?.ꎮ T?h?e?? T?w?o?-ꆪF?a?c?t?o?r? ?M?o?d?e?l? o?f? ?E?v?a?l?u?a?t?i?ng? ?M?i?ni?ng? ?R?i?gh?t?s? ?o?f? C?o?a?l? R?e? ?s?o?u?r?c?e?s? ?B?a?s?e?d? ?o?n?? O?p?t?i?o?n?s?[?J?]?.ꎮ J?o?u?r?n?a?l? o?f? ?C?o?a?l? S?c?i?e?n?c?e? ?中훐阁맺创??造퓬学톧会믡第뗚1?1?届뷬闺맺际볊学톧术쫵研퇐计쳖会믡?a?n?d? ?E?n?g?i?ne?e?r?i?n?g? (?C?h?i?na?)? ,ꎬ2?0?0?8?,ꎬ1?4? (?2?)?:ꎺ 3?2?1? ~ꆫ 3?2?5?.ꎮ ??????????????ꎬ????????ꎮ??????????????????????暨3?届뷬5?次듎理샭事쫂会믡?[4J MIONAS N T ,HENKER T. Price Spread and Co盯en?i?e?n?c?e? ?Y?i?el?d? ?B?e?h?a?v?i?or? i?n ?t?h?e? ?I?n?t?e?r?n?a?t?i?on?a?l? O?i?l ?M?a?r?k?e?t? ????ꎮ???????????????????????ꎬ????ꎬ?????ꎺ????会믡议틩日죕期웚:ꎺ?[J工AppliedFinancial Economics,2001,11(l): 23~ ??ꎮ?2?0?0?8?年쓪1?0?月퓂1?0?ꆫ~1?2?日죕?36. ???????????ꎮ???????????????????????????????????ꎮ?会믡议틩地뗘点뗣:ꎺ?[5J KALDOR N. Speculation and Economic Stability口].R?e?v?i?e?w? ???????????????????ꎬ????ꎬ????ꎺ?ꆫ??ꎮ?云퓆南쓏省쪡昆삥明쏷市쫐?of Economic Studies, 1939,7 (2) : 1 ~ 27. [?6?J? B?R?E?N?N?A?N? ?M? ?J? ,ꎬS?C?H?W?R?T?S? ?E? ?S?.ꎮ E?v?a?l?u?a?t?i?on? ?N?a?t?u?r?a?l? 主훷办냬单떥位캻:ꎺ?I?n?v?e?s?t?m?e?n?t?s? [?J?]?.ꎮ J?o?u?r?n?a?l? o?f? B?u?s?i?n?e?s?s?,ꎬ 1?9?8?5?,ꎬ 5?8? (?2?)?:ꎺ ?中훐国맺创뒴造퓬学톧会믡?1?3?5?~ꆫ15?7?.? ꎮ?会믡议틩议틩题쳢:ꎺ?[?7?J? W?O?R?K?I?N?G? ?H?.ꎮ T?h?e? ?T?h?e?o?r?y? ?o?f? t?h?e? ?P?r?ic?e? ?o?f? ?S?t?o?r?a?g?e? ?提쳡高룟自ퟔ主훷创뒴新탂能쓜力솦，ꎬ建붨设짨创뒴新탂型탍国맺家볒?[?J?].? ꎮA?m?e?r?ic?a?n? ?E?c?o?n?o?m?ic? ?R?e?v?ie?w?,ꎬ 1?9?4?9?, ꎬ3?9? (?3?)?:ꎺ ?会믡务컱联솪系쾵:ꎺ王췵知횪富뢻?1? 2?5?4?~ꆫ1? 2?6?2?. ꎮ?会믡议틩电뗧话뮰:ꎺ0?2?1?-ꆪ6?5?9?8?3?9?3?3? ?[?8?J? B?R?E?N?N?A?N? ?M? ?J?. ꎮT?h?e? ?P?r?ic?in?g? ?o?f? C?o?n?v?e?n?ie?n?c?e? ?a?n?d? ?????????????????????????????????????????ꎮ????会믡议틩传뒫真헦:ꎺ0?2?1?-ꆪ6?5?9?8?3?9?3?3? ?Valuation of Commodity Contingent Claims[M]. The N?e?t?h?e?r?l?a?n?d?s?: ꎺE?ls?e?v?ie?r? ?S?c?i?e?n?c?e? ?P?u?b?li?s?h?e?r?s?, ꎬ1?9?9?1?. ꎮ??????????????ꎮ?????????????????????????????信탅息쾢来살源풴ꎺh?t?t??p:ꎺꎯ/ꎯ/?ww?w?.ꎮ????ꎮ????ccsis. org [9 J CANTEKIN D. The Convenience Yield and Risk ꆤ7?2?8? ꆤ?
