ֻ19ज5௹ႋႨగའ࿐Б, 2008୍10ᄅJOURNALOFAPPLIEDMETEOROLOGICALSC IENCE October2008Кࣘ൧గ໑ؓ৯ڵހ႕ཙ֥࠹ਈࣜ࠶ٳ༅X吴向阳1) 张海东2)1) (Кࣘ൧ഠ߶॓࿐ჽ,Кࣘ1001012)) (ᇏݓగའअ,Кࣘ100081)ᅋ ေၛ໑؇ஊളэਈ؇ರᆷඔູࢳэਈܒࡹਔగ໑ა৯ڵހ֥࠹ਈࣜ࠶ଆbଆᆣૼਔ฿గؓ৯ڵހ֥࠱ࢫྟ႕ཙ,႕ཙཁᇷb๙ݖႄೆਙཌྷܱARࢲܒބࢳэਈ֥ࢲܒ,ଆ֤֞ᇯ҄Ⴊ߄,טᆜ֥ކႪ؇ղ95%bູਔဒଆ֥ყҩି৯,০Ⴈൎඔऌؓఃࣉྛਔܙ,ܙࢲݔіૼଆႵࢠݺ֥ᇏ௹৯ڵހყҩି৯bھଆؓ৯ఒြ৯ט؇a৯ࡹഡႵࢠն֥ҕॉࡎᆴbܱՍ:ᇅ؇ರᆷඔ;Ґ୰؇ರᆷඔ;৯ڵހᇕၹ֥႕ཙ,ೂޅٳԛగ໑ၹ၂ᆰ൞۱ีbႄ Ч໓ܒᄯਔగ໑֥ஊളэਈ)))Ґ୰؇ರᆷඔ(HeatingDegreeDays,HDD)ބᇅ؇ರᆷඔ(Coolingყҩ৯ڵހൈॉ੮฿గ֥႕ཙ,ؓ৯༢DegreeDays,CDD),ԉٳॉ੮၂ᇛ֥ૄ฿aᄅٺࠣࢫ॥ᇅaᄎྛބ࠹߃ޓᇗေ,൞৯൧ӆႵིᄎቔ֥ࡌರؓ৯ླ֥࠱ࢫྟ႕ཙ,ࢠݺֹࢳथਔᆃ۱ࠎԤbሙಒ֥ڵހყҩॖၛؿഅބຩ܄ඳదีbר֥ყܓކ۷ࢤ࣍ൌ࠽ࢌၞކ,х૧ਔၹކэ۷طӁള֥ࢌၞٮႨ;ିܔຩ܄ඳᄝЌᆣ1 ඔऌაሧਘຩνಆ֥భิ༯,ࢆ֮ຩ܄ඳ֥ᄎႏӮЧ;ିܔູ৯൧ӆ֥ሧܿ߃ิ܂थҦ၇ऌbၹՎ,ିჷࣜЧ໓Ⴈ֥৯ඔऌ൞Кࣘ൧2002)2004୍࠶࿐ࡅބିჷ৯ఒြؓڵހყҩޓۋྖ౿,࣮ರቋۚ৯ڵހ,܋1096۱ܴҩᆴbᆃུڵހЇও฿గэ߄ა৯ڵހэ,หљ൞ؓ؋௹ڵހყҩ୪ြa۽ြaڛༀြބं֩۲֥҆Ⴈڵހ,ٳ(Ֆࠫٳᇒ֞၂ᇛ)࣮ࢠ؟[1-2]b࣮ٚمᇶေЇ֥҆Ⴈڵހم֤֞bႮႿဢЧܴҩᆴࢠ؟,ও࠹࿐ٚمaപࣜຩٚمaଆંمaཬѯٳ෮ၛԛགྷၳٚҵ֥ॖିྟࢠն[8],ၳٚҵິМਔ߭༅مaህࡅ༢م֩b࣮ᇏ,Ⴕུᆺॉ੮୍न໑݂ٳ༅֥ٚҵ၂ᇁྟࡌഡb࠹ਈࣜ࠶࿐ᇏࣜӈႨ౼؇ਙ,ીႵЇও࠱ࢫྟэ[3-4],ႵུؓࢠӉൈ௹ؓඔ֥ٚمཨԢၳٚҵ[9],Ч໓ࣼႨᆃᇕٚمb(࠱a϶)୍֥ყҩࢠbݓଽ֥࣮ᇶေࠢᇏᄝᆦՖ1ॖၛुԛ,ಀ൝ު֥ቋۚ৯ڵހაగ໑ӻཟਈࠏٚمބപࣜຩٚمყҩ؋௹ڵހ[5-6],ၛᆭࡗӯᆷඔ൝,౼ؓඔުॖࡼᆷඔ൝эູཌྟ࠹ਈࣜ࠶࿐൭؍ყҩᄅa࠱a϶୍֥৯ڵހ࣮ഉ൝bၹՎ,Ч໓ؓቋۚ৯ڵހ౼ሱಖؓඔ,Ⴈ҂؟[7]bLtіൕbЧ໓ၛКࣘ൧2002)2004୍గ໑ބ৯ڵހݖಀ֥࣮ཁൕ,గ໑൞႕ཙ৯ླ֥ቋཁඔऌູࠎԤ,Ⴈ࠹ਈࣜ࠶࿐ٚم,ܒࡹగ໑ؓ৯ڵᇷэਈ[10]bЧ໓࿊౼Кࣘ൧2002)2004୍ૄರ֥ހ႕ཙ֥ඔ࿐ଆ,ҰКࣘ൧৯ڵހაగ໑֥ܱ൩ຓగ໑T(ֆ:໊e)ູ႕ཙ৯ڵހ֥႕ཙၹሰ,༢b৯ڵހ൳ࣜ࠶ؿᅚඣaିჷࢲܒa฿గ֩؟࣐ܵു؇aڄ֩ؓ৯ڵހ္Ⴕ႕ཙ,ႮႿሧਘXݓࡅೈ॓࿐࣮࠹߃(2007GX3B050)a2008୍؇ࡾ්സగའᄙݝᇗׄൌဒ൩(ଲࣘྐ༏۽ӱն࿐)ष٢ज़ีބ2007୍؇ᇏݓగའअగީэ߄ህཛଢ(CCSF2007-43)܋ሧᇹb2007-05-18൬֞,2008-03-18൬֞ᄜڿ۠b
5 32 ႋ Ⴈ గ འ ࿐ Б 19ज ֥ॖࠆ֤ྟ֩ჰၹ,Ч໓ᄠ҂ॉ੮b൩ຓగ໑ඔऌ֤ඪૼ֥൞,2ᇏ৯ڵހඔऌ҂൞ჰඔऌ,طটሱКࣘ൧پగའᅟ,ࡼૄರቋۚగ໑აቋ֮గ൞ؓჰඔऌο1֥ཌྟᄹӉੱಀ൝ު֥ᆴbၹ໑ཌྷࡆԢၛ2࠹ෘ֤֞ૄರनగ໑,ູࠧЇݣ൝֥৯ڵހඔऌაగ໑ᆭࡗཌྷܱྟѩ҂T=(Tmax+Tmin)/2(1)ૼཁbཁಖ,৯ڵހაగ໑ᆭࡗ൞٤ཌྟܱ༢,ӯPardo࣮֩іૼ,ᆃᇕ࠹ෘٚم൞ொ,֥ෛࠏ༂ҵUbగ໑ۚႿଖ۱ᚐᆴު,৯ླෛగ໑ശۚ҂ӑݖ[8]Ч໓෮ඪ֥గ໑ᆷರनగ໑bطᄹࡆ,గ໑֮Ⴟᆃ۱ᚐᆴު,৯ླෛగ໑ࢆ֮1൞Кࣘ൧2002)2004୍֥ರ৯ڵހэطᄹࡆb൞৯ླؓۚ໑ބ֮໑֥ૹۋӱ؇ѩ౦ঃb৯ڵހෛሢ࠱ࢫ֥э߄طഈ༯ѯ,ᇶ҂ཌྷb֒గ໑ູ25eൈ,గ໑ഈശ1e,৯ڵေіགྷູ༱࠱ބ࠱৯ڵހᄹࡆ,Խ౬ਆ࠱৯ހᄹࡆ%,֒గ໑ູ30eൈ,ഈശ1e,৯ڵڵހࡨഒbᆃཁಖა༱฿ᇅࢆ໑a฿౼୰Ⴕܱbހ߶ᄹࡆ%,ط֒గ໑֮Ⴟ10eൈ,ࢆ֮1e,Ֆ1ߎॖၛुԛ৯ڵހෛൈࡗᄹࡆ֥൝,ᆃ৯ڵހᆺᄹࡆ1%~%bᇶေჰၹ൞฿֥ᇶေ൞ႮႿࣜ࠶ؿᅚႄఏ(֥Кࣘ൧GDPૄ୍ၛӑ܂୰ٚൔ؟ဢ,Кࣘၛ฿ಖగູᇶ,৯܂୰ູڣ,ݖ10%֥؇ᄹӉ)bط༱฿ᆺିႨ৯ᇅbᄝ18eቐႷ,৯ླቋ2ཁൕԛగ໑ა৯ڵހᆭࡗཌྷܱܱ༢bᆴ,֮గ໑ؓ৯ڵހ႕ཙቋཬb1 2002)2004୍Кࣘ൧ರ৯ڵހ Beijingdailyelectricityloadduring2002)20042 2002)2004୍Кࣘ൧ರनగ໑ა৯ڵހ(ಀ൝)ׄ Scatterdiagramofdailytemperatureandelectricityload(detrend)ofBeijingduring2002)2004
5௹ ཟဝ֩:Кࣘ൧గ໑ؓ৯ڵހ႕ཙ֥࠹ਈࣜ࠶ٳ༅ 53 3 ᆞೂ2෮ൕ,గ໑ؓ৯ླ֥႕ཙ൞٤ཌྟ(ࠧ၂Ց؟ཛൔ),ᆃဢଆཌྷؓࡥֆ,ط္бྟ,֥ᄝᆃ۱U౷ཌ֥ਆҧ,ෛሢగ໑֥ശۚ(ࢆࢠሙಒbࠧؓࣜ࠶ؿᅚቔ۷گᄖ֥ࡌഡ,ଆࢲݔѩ҂߶Ⴕཁᇷิۚ[14])֮,৯ླᄹࡆbၹՎླေϜᆃਆҧٳष,ၛbٳљ૭ඍగ໑ശۚބగ໑ࢆ֮ؓ৯ླ֥႕ཙbֻt฿֥Ґ୰؇ರᆷඔHtބᇅ؇ರᆷඔCtbݓ࠽ഈ၂ϮႄೆҐ୰؇ರᆷඔބᇅ؇ರᆷඔਆ۱6۱ྒ௹ྴэਈDit,ૌսі၂ᇛଽ֥ૄ฿໑؇ஊളᆷѓ,ᆃᇕٳ۩ႵᇹႿࡹ৫ࡥࢱ֥ཌྟଆ৯ླэ߄bi=2,3,,,7,ٳљսіྒ௹ؽ,ྒ௹,,,ྒ௹ರbྒ௹၂ູࠎԤರb֒ಖޅ၂฿,ყҩି৯۷఼[8]b෮໌؇ರࣼ൞ᆷರनగ໑ა࿊ק֥ҕॉ໑؇֥ൌ࠽ҵ,ّ႘฿֥ބॖၛቔູࠎԤರbྴэਈ൞קྟэਈ,֒קྟ༱฿֥ಣ఼֥؇ބӻ࿃֥ൈࡗ,ၹط္ॖၛّ႘ିэਈႵm۱োൈ,ଆ҂ିႄೆm۱ྴэਈ,ჷླ఼֥؇bHDD֥ᆴіൕनగ໑֮Ⴟҕॉڎᄵᄝྴэਈࡗ߶Ӂളປಆ؟ᇗ܋ཌྟ[9]bૄ໑؇۱ྴэਈᆺି౼ᆴ1ࠇ0b২ೂ,ೂݔֻt฿ູ(ೂ18e)֥նཬ,HDDᄀն,іൕగ໑ᄀ֮,ླေҐ୰఼؇ᄀնbྒ௹ؽ,ᄵD2t=1,ఃDit=0;ೂݔֻt฿ູྒ௹CDD֥ᆴіൕनగ໑ۚႿҕॉ໑؇֥նཬ,CDDᄀն,іൕగ໑ᄀۚ,ᄵD3t=1,ఃDit=0,ၛՎোbೂݔֻt฿,ླေᇅ఼؇ᄀնbHDDູਬൈ,іൕగ໑ൽൡ,҂ླေູྒ௹၂,ᄵ෮Ⴕ֥Dit=0b࣮іૼ,၂ᇛଽ֥Ґ୰ૄ฿৯ླэ߄Ⴕࢠ఼֥ᇛ௹ྟ[15],бೂྒ௹၂,္҂ླေᇅbHDD,CDDनູ٤ڵඔ,ֻt฿֥HDD,CDD࠹ෘ܄ൔೂ༯֞ྒ௹Ⴈਈбࢠն,ط٤۽ቔರ֥ྒ௹ੂބྒ:௹ರႨਈбࢠཬ(ೂ3a෮ൕ),ၹՎႄೆྒ௹ྴHt=max(Tref-Tt,0)(2)эਈॖၛѽሚᆃᇕ٤໑؇ႄఏ֥৯ڵހэ߄bCt=max(Tt-Tref,0)11۱ᄅٺྴэਈMjtbૌսіႮႿࣜ࠶aൔ(2)ᇏ,Ht,Ct,Ttٳљіൕֻt฿֥HDD,CDD,ഠ߶֩٤໑؇ၹႄఏ֥৯ླᄅٺ࠱ࢫྟэनగ໑;Trefູҕॉ໑؇bҕॉ໑؇֥࿊ᄴႋၛ,ೂଖུൊ۽ြᄝࢫࡌರభႨਈ߶ᄹࡆ,࿐ିٳषಣ࠱ࢫؓିჷ৯֥ླູჰᄵbႮ2֩ࠏܒᄝඅࡌ௹ࡗႨਈ߶༯ࢆb৯ڵހᄅ؇ѯॖၛुԛ,֒໑؇ູ18eቐႷൈ,৯ླؓ໑؇ೂ3b෮ൕbোරႿྒ௹ྴэਈ,ᄅٺྴэ֥ྟቋཬ,ᆞݺ൞ླေᇅބླေҐ୰֥ٳඣ,ਈMjt֥༯ѓj=2,3,,,12,ٳљսі2ᄅ,3ᄅ,෮ၛЧ໓౼Trefູ18ebଆᇏႨ֥֞HDD,,,12ᄅ,౼ᆴ౦ঃ္ປಆোරႿഈ૫֥ྒ௹ྴCDDඔऌनႮഈൔ࠹ෘ֤֞b҂ֹ֥ॖၛ౼эਈDitb1ᄅູࠎԤᄅٺ(ޅᄅٺनॖၛቓࠎԤ҂֥ҕॉ໑؇,ೂК֥ථऽ֥ବົݓࡅބѯᄅٺ),jູ1ᄅൈ,෮Ⴕ֥Mjtन౼0bধ౼17e,ૅݓ౼65bF(ཌྷ֒),ࡆଦնᄵਆ۱ࢫರྴэਈJt,StbJtսіჭ֊a၂ݓაЧ໓၂ᇁ[11-13]bᄝࡹ৫ଆݖӱᇏҕॉ໑؇࿊࠽সࢫa၂ݓ౩ࢫ,ᆃུࢫರൈࡗཌྷؓܥקbᄝᄴ16~20e,ଆࢲݔીႵૼཁڿࣉbᆃུࡌ௹௹ࡗ,Jt౼1,ఃൈࡗ౼0bStսіݓ֥ԮࢫರԽࢫ,ཌྷؓ܄ط,ൈࡗ൞э֥,ᄝଆ2 ٚمაଆᇏᅳ֞ཌྷႋ֥ರ௹,Խࢫ௹ࡗSt౼1,ఃൈࡗ౼0b၂Ϯط,ᄝࢫࡌರ۽ြބڛༀြ֥Ⴈਈ༯ࢆ, ࠎЧଆ෮ၛഡᇂᆃུྴэਈၛଆ۷ሙಒbଆႨ֞ೂ༯ࢳэਈ:ॉ੮ഈ૫෮Ⴕၹ,൮༵۳ԛֻ၂۱ଆྙൔ:ൈࡗ7tbᆃ۱эਈ൞ႨႿ૭ඍ৯ڵހ֥Ӊ௹൝bᆃᇕӉ௹ᄹࡆ֥൝ᇶေაഠ߶aࣜ࠶aඌLt=c1+A1t+B1Ht+C1Ct+Em1iDit+i=2ބದ१֩ၹႵ,ܱೂӬ൧߄ࣉӱ֥ࡆॹ12,ളࠃඣ֥ิ,ۚंॢטႚႵਈ֥ᄹࡆ,ၛࠣದ१֥ӻ࿃ᄹEn1iMjt+p1Jt+q1St+e1t (3)j=2ࡆ(ᇶေႮႿ۲ᇕຓটದ१ᄹࡆ)bಀԢൈࡗਙൔ(3)ᇏ,c1,A1,B1,C1,m1i(i=2,3,,,7),n1j(j=൝֥ӈႨٚمႵਆᇕ,၂൞ҵٳ,ؽ൞ႄೆൈࡗэਈ2,3,,,12),p1,q1ູ݂߭ٳ༅ေܙ࠹֥༢ඔ,e1t؟ཛൔ[9]bЧ໓Ⴈުᆀ,ѩࡌഡࣜ࠶ᄹӉ࣍රӯཌູෛࠏ༂ҵཛb
5 34 ႋ Ⴈ గ འ ࿐ Б 19ज 3 2002)2004୍၂ᇛ(a)ࠣ۲ᄅ(b)न৯ڵހ Weekly(a)andmonthly(b)fluctuationofaverageelectricityloadduring2002)2004 ଆᇏႄೆਔޓ؟ྴэਈ,ᄝᆃႵсေඪ֥ۚ໑ࠇ֮໑߶ႄఏֻؽ฿֥৯ླ༯ࢆ,ᆃૼ၂༯ྴэਈ༢ඔ֥ݣၬb২ೂ,1ᄅ֥٤ࡌ௹مࢳགྷൌ౦ঃbྒ௹ྴэਈ༢ඔDit္ູڵbྒ௹၂֥ყ௹৯ڵހູLt=c1+A1t+B1Ht+֝ᇁᆃᇕࢲݔ֥ჰၹ൞Lt-1ؓ৯ڵހLt֥ࢳC1C৯఼,ࡼЧႋႮHDD,CDD֩ၹটࢳ֥҆ٳt,ط3ᄅ֥٤ࡌ௹ྒ௹ؽ֥ყ௹৯ڵހູLt=c1+A1t+B္Їওਔ,Ҍ֝ᇁਔᆃᇕ҂ކགྷའbЧ໓ചఙਔ1Ht+C1Ct+m1,2+n1,3b၇Վোbၹطഈ૫֥ଆࣼॖၛყҩૄ฿֥ᆃᇕཨԢਙཌྷܱٚمb৯ڵހbࢳथਙཌྷܱ֥ਸ਼၂ᇕٚم൞ႄೆ༂ҵሱ݂߭ᄎႨࢲܒ15](AR[)bᆃᇕٚمࡌഡ༂ҵetॖႮႵཋ௹֥Eviewsೈࡱ,֤֞ଆ1֥ࢲݔೂі1෮ൕbӈඔཛބ൝ཛ٤ӈཁᇷ,ਆ۱గ໑ஊളᆷѓ༂ҵᇌުཛটࢳ,ॖіൕ:္ູޓཁᇷ,Ct֥༢ඔૼཁնႿHt֥༢ඔ,ඪૼ༱et=<1et-1+<2et-2+,+<pet-p+Et (4)ࠧ2฿గ໑ശۚб฿గ໑ࢆ֮ؓ৯ڵހ႕ཙ۷ն(1-<1L-<2L-,p-<pL)et=Etఃᇏ,Lູᇌުෘሰ;<1,<2,,,<p൞ӈ༢ඔ,ᄝଆ,ུᆃაགྷൌཌྷ໖ކbྒ௹၂֞ྒ௹ᆃࠫ۱ྴᇏླေܙ࠹;Et൞Ϣᄮലݖӱbэਈ֥༢ඔ൞ᆞඔ,طྒ௹ੂaྒ௹ರၛࠣࢫࡌರႵޓ؟ᆐ؎ٚمၛಒקሱ݂߭ࢲܒ,Ч໓ၛԅ֥༢ඔ൞ڵඔ,طtဒ٤ӈཁᇷ,ඪૼ٤۽ቔӽྐ༏ሙᄵ(AIC)ބྸຐሥሙᄵ(SC)ᆴቋཬູჰರ֥৯ཨٮ֮Ⴟ۽ቔರbྒ௹֥৯ླቋᄵ,ಒקਔؽࢨሱ݂߭ࢲܒAR(2)bປᆜଆྙൔ,ۚՑ֥֮၇Ց൞ྒ௹ඹaྒ௹aྒ௹ؽb۽ቔರູ:tဒ҂ཁᇷ,ඪૼ۲۽ቔರཌྷؓྒ௹၂টඪ,7৯ڵހᄹࡆ҂ૼཁb۲ᄅཌྷؓ1ᄅটඪ,৯ڵހLt=c2+A2t+B2Ht+C2Ct+Em2iDit+i=2ႵᄹႵࡨ,3,7,8ᄅtဒ҂ཁᇷbٚӱކႪ؇1287En2iMjt+p2Jt+q2St+.1%,҂൞ޓۚbj= ਙཌྷܱ(1-<1L-<2L2)e2t (5)Ֆଆ1࠹ෘ֥DW࠹ਈᆴु,ٚӱ༂ҵཛ ଆ2֥݂߭ٳ༅ࢲݔᄝі1ᇏ۳ԛbॖၛुթᄝᇗᆞሱཌྷܱb۴ऌ࠹ਈࣜ࠶࿐,ંೂݔ༂ԛ,טᆜ֥ކႪ؇(R2)նږิۚ֞95%,ඪૼଆҵཛሱཌྷ,ܱᄵFဒބtဒ֥ᇂྐࡗ҂൞֥ყҩି৯ႵޓնิശbDWᆴູ,ሱཌྷܱ۬Ⴕ,ིܙ࠹ԛ֥༢ඔ္൞҂໗ק,֥Ⴕॖି֝ᇁհཨԢbӈඔཛބ൝ཛಯಖ٤ӈཁᇷ,༢ඔႵ༂֥ࢲݔbၹՎ,ႋھࣉ၂҄Ⴊ߄ଆbັᄹࡆbHtބCt༢ඔႵ෮༯ࢆ,ᆃ္ඪૼᄹࡆARࢳथਙཌྷܱ֥ٚمᆭ၂൞ϜФࢳэਈ֥ᇌ֥ᇗေྟbࢫࡌರაྒ௹ੂaྒ௹ರ֥༢ඔಯູڵުཛቔູࢳэਈbЧ໓ॉ੮ࡼLt-1ࡆೆ֞ࢳඔ,ඪૼ৯ླᄝࢫࡌರࡨഒbэਈ,ࢲݔཁൕ༂ҵሱཌྷܱཨԢ,טᆜ֥ކႪ؇ղ ଆ߄95%,රެ൞۱ݺଆb൞,Ґ୰؇ರᆷඔHtބഈඍଆીႵЇও؇ರᆷඔ֥ࢲܒ,൙ൌᇅ؇ರᆷඔCt֥ᇌުཛ༢ඔनູڵᆴ,ඪૼ֒฿ഈ,֒฿֥గའ่ࡱ(Ⴍః൞గ໑)ؓުࠫ฿֥৯
5௹ ཟဝ֩:Кࣘ൧గ໑ؓ৯ڵހ႕ཙ֥࠹ਈࣜ࠶ٳ༅ 53 5 ླ൞Ⴕ႕ཙ֥bႮႿࡹᇽ֥ۯಣቔႨ,൩ຓగLt=c3+A3t+B3Ht+C3Ct+B31Ht-1+C31Ct-1+໑֥э߄҂߶৫ࠧ႕ཙ൩ଽ໑؇712,൩ଽ໑؇טࢫؓ൩ຓగ໑Ⴕ၂קᇌު+C[16-17]bᆃඪૼHt,CtԢؓ֒B32Ht-232Ct-2+Em3iDit+En3iMjt+i=2j=2฿֥৯ڵހႵ႕ཙຓ,ߎթᄝᇌުིႋbູဒp3Jt+q3St+(1-<1L-<2L2-<3L3)e3t(6)ᆃ۱ࡌഡ,ᄝଆ2ᇏႄೆHt,Ct֥ؽࢨᇌުэਈ ଆ3֥݂߭ࢲݔі1bٚӱቐҧ൞৯ڵHt-1,Ct-1,Ht-2,Ct-2(ࢨၛഈ֥ᇌުэਈ҂ཁހ֥ሱಖؓඔ,Ⴗҧ൞۲ࢳэਈ֥၂Ցཌྟ؟ཛᇷ,ؓଆࢲݔીႵڿࣉ)b༂ҵཛ֥ሱ݂߭ࢲܒಯൔbؓٚӱಆັٳ,ᄵٚӱቐҧ֩Ⴟ৯ڵހ֥οAIC,SCቋཬჰᄵ,౼AR(3)bྍ֥ଆ3ྙൔᄹӉ,ੱႷҧູ۲эਈ֥༢ඔbၹՎ۲༢ඔ֥ᆴॖ:ູၛࢳ:ູ֒ࢳэਈэ၂ֆ໊ൈ,৯ڵހ֥эі1 ଆ1aଆ2aଆ3֥ܙ࠹ࢲݔTable1 Resultofmode-l1,mode-l2andmode-l3ࢳэਈଆ1ଆ2ଆ3༢ඔt࠹ᆴ༢ඔt࠹ᆴ༢ඔt࠹ᆴ@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@@(1)@@(2)@@(3)@טᆜ֥݂߭ѓሙҵ࠹ᆴ ᇿ:(1)AICູԅӽྐ༏ሙᄵ(Akaikeinfocriterion),SCູᄵྸຐሥሙᄵ(Schwarzcriterion)(2)t࠹ਈ֥ཁᇷඣ֥ਢࢸᆴູ,tᆴնႿіൕ๙ݖཁᇷྟဒb
5 36 ႋ Ⴈ గ འ ࿐ Б 19ज ੱbᇶေࢲݔೂ༯:ඪૼႮႿࣜ࠶aഠ߶ჰၹ႕ཙ֥۲ᄅ৯ڵހ(٤໑؇ರᆷඔH؇ၹ,໑؇ၹЇݣᄝ؇ರᆷඔᇏ)ა1ᄅીႵૼt,Ctಯಖཁᇷ,бଆ2֥ཌྷႋ༢ඔնbཁ֥љb4)8ᄅ༢ඔູڵ,ॖၛࢳູۚ໑฿గCؓഠ߶ࣜ࠶ႵၝᇅቔႨ,֝ᇁႨڵހཌྷؓ1ᄅtбHt༢ඔն,ඪૼ༱࠱ۚ໑ؓ৯ڵހ֥႕ཙб࠱֮໑۷նb֒CDDᄹࡆ1eൈ,৯ڵ֮bހᄹࡆ%טᆜ֥ކႪ؇ղ%,бଆ2Ⴕิ,ࠧ֒नగ໑ӑݖ18eൈ,ૄᄹࡆ1e,৯ڵހᄹࡆჿ2%bطೂݔ൞࠱,గ໑ۚbૄࢆ֮1e,৯ڵހᄹࡆ%b3 ଆܙHt-1,Ht-2ཬႿHt,Ct-1,Ct-2ཬႿCt,ඪૼ؇ರᆷඔؓ֒฿֥৯ڵހ႕ཙࢠն,طؓުࠫ฿֥৯ڵހ႕ཙࢠཬb֒฿ູਔܙଆ3֥ყҩି৯,ࡼ2002)2004୍CDDᄹࡆ1e,ࣂުਆ฿৯ླჿᄹࡆ%~%b֒฿֥గ໑ބ৯ڵހඔऌٳӮਆ҆ٳ,၂҆ٳႨႿHDDଆ3,ਸ਼၂҆ٳႨႿყҩbᄝଆܙᇏ,ٳљᄹࡆ1e,ࣂުਆ฿৯ླჿᄹࡆ%~ࣉྛਔ࠱؇ބᄅ؇৯ڵހყҩbᄝ࠱؇ყҩᇏ,%bCt-1҂ཁᇷbࡼ2001୍1ᄅ)2004୍9ᄅ֥ඔऌႨႿଆ٤۽ቔರྴэਈ֥༢ඔनູڵඔ,طཁᇷ,3,2004୍ֻ4࠱؇֥໑؇ඔऌႨႿყҩᆃ࠱؇֥ඪૼ٤۽ቔರ֥৯ཨٮ֮Ⴟ۽ቔರbՖD6ބ৯ڵހbᄝᄅ؇ყҩᇏ,Ϝ2001୍1ᄅ)2004D7֥༢ඔॖၛुԛ,ྒ௹ੂބྒ௹ರ֥৯ླб୍11ᄅ֥ඔऌႨႿଆ3,2004୍12ᄅ֥໑ྒ௹၂ٳљ༯ࢆ%ބ%bط/၂0a/؇ඔऌႨႿყҩᆃ۱ᄅٺ֥৯ڵހbႵсေඪૼ၂0֩ࡌರ֥৯ڵހб٤ࡌರ༯ࢆ3%,ݓ֥Ԯ֥൞,ႮႿܴҩဢЧඔࡨഒ,෮֤֥֞эਈ༢ඔაіࢫರԽࢫ௹ࡗ,৯ླࡨഒ%b1ᇏ֥ଆ3༢ඔॖିႵ҂bყҩࢲݔೂ4Ԣ5,6ᄅྴэਈ༢ඔཁᇷຓ,ః҂ཁᇷ,෮ൕb4 2004୍ֻ4࠱؇(a)ࠣ12ᄅ(b)৯ڵހ Electricityloadofthe4thquarter(a)andDecember(b)in2004і2 ࠱؇ބᄅ؇ყҩ༂ҵ Ֆᆃུ༂ҵᆷѓ,ुଆყҩି৯ࢠ఼b࠱؇Table2 Quarterlyandmonthlyforecastingerrorყҩ֥ொҵб২,ࠧყҩनᆴაൌ࠽नᆴ֥ொӱ༂ҵᆷѓ࠱؇ყҩᄅ؇ყҩ؇,္ࠧ༢༂ҵᆺႵ%bनٚ۴༂ҵູनٚ۴༂ҵ/नधؓ༂ҵ/,ࠧ%֥ۀੱЌᆣ༂ҵ҂ӑݖनཌྷؓ༂ҵᄅ؇ყҩ္Ⴕোර֥ࢲݔ,ՖொҵбTheil҂֩༢ඔ২ु,ᄅ؇ყҩб࠱؇ყҩི֥ݔҵbᆃུඪૼଆொҵб২/%ٚҵб২/%Ⴕࢠ఼֥ᇏ௹ყҩି৯bႮႿᆺႵ3୍֥ඔऌဢླྀٚҵб২/%Ч,ყҩࢲݔႵ၂קொҵbೂݔᄹࡆဢЧඔ,ଆ֥
5௹ ཟဝ֩:Кࣘ൧గ໑ؓ৯ڵހ႕ཙ֥࠹ਈࣜ࠶ٳ༅ 53 7 ყҩି৯߶۷ݺbݓຓ֥ো࣮іૼ,ೂݔႨ10gary,1999.୍֥ဢЧࣉྛყҩ,न༂ҵཬႿ1%[15]bႋھ[2] ᅦ໓ᅽ,ӧې.৯൧ӆ༯ڵހყҩሸඍ.༆࿐ჽ࿐Б(ሱᇿၩ֥൞,ᆃ۱༂ҵܙ൞ၛൌ࠽໑؇টဒ֥bಖ॓࿐ϱ),2003,(3):71-74.[3] KermanshahiB,ᄝൌᇏ,ᄅ؇ބ࠱؇గ໑ყБ֥ሙಒྟສສ҂,2000,24:མ,ᆃࡼؓ৯ڵހ֥ყܙࡼӁളᇗေ႕ཙbၹ789-797.Վ[4] RingwoodJV,BofellD,,ൌႋႨൈ,ေหљᇿၩగ໑ყБ֥ሙಒྟ໙ีbdemandonshort,,2001,31:129-147.[5] ηඩ,ઔޣܻ,ਾྦ.ࠎႿRBFNN֥؋௹৯ڵހࠁᚧ4 ཬ ࢲअთყҩم.ఖ,2006,(14):21-23.[6] ᅵდޣ,นဲ۸,ᅦᄒߩ.ࠎႿപࣜຩބଆં֥؋௹ڵగའ่ࡱؓିჷ৯ཨٮ֥႕ཙбࢠૼಒ,ހყҩ.ۚඌ,2006,(5):45-47.ႮႿగའ่ࡱ֥گᄖྟၛࠣഠ߶aࣜ࠶aඌބದ१[7] ӧԽౖ.ඔ࠹ٳ༅ᄝ৯ఒြڵހყҩᇏ֥ႋႨ.ת֩؟ᇕၹ܋ؓ৯ཨٮؿളቔႨ,֤ყҩ৯,2006,(5):63-65.৯ཨٮູࠞگᄖbЧ໓ၛగ໑ஊളэਈ؇ರᆷඔູ[8] PardoA,MeneuV,,2002,24:ࢳэਈ,ႄೆਙཌྷܱARࢲܒބࢳэਈ֥55-70.ࢲܒ,ၛྒ௹ྴэਈaᄅٺྴэਈބࢫࡌರྴ[9] ᅦཫᗀ.࠹ਈࣜ࠶࿐ࠎԤ.฿ࣃ:ଲषն࿐ԛϱഠ,2001.эਈটٳࢳ৯ڵހ֥ರaᄅބࡌ௹֥࠱ࢫྟѯ[10] LiX,,1995,7(3):334-346.,๙ݖᇯ҄Ⴊ߄֥ٚمܒࡹਔగ໑ა৯ڵހ֥࠹ਈࣜ࠶ଆbଆࢲݔޓݺֹࢳਔగ໑эa[11] -۽ቔರა٤۽ቔರؓ৯ླ֥႕ཙ,Poland,2003:471-474.Ֆଆܙ࠹,ुCDDؓ৯ڵހ֥႕ཙб[12] ն,CDDᄹࡆ1e,৯ڵހჿᄹࡆ3%,طᄹࡆMet,1985,24(8):,৯ڵހჿᄹࡆ%bCDD֥ᇌު႕ཙ္бHDD֥ᇌު႕ཙնbྒ௹ੂaྒ௹ರa[13] ྆ሌ,්֣ќ,Ⴢݚဉ,֩.Кֹࣘಣ؇ರބ؇ರ֥э߄หᆘ.ႋႨగའ࿐Б,2007,18(2):232-236./၂0֩ࡌರ֥Ⴈڵހбᆞӈ౦ঃ(۽ቔರ)༯ࢆ[14] LalasDP,MirasgedisS,SarafidisY,-i3%~4%ᆭࡗ,طԽࢫ௹ࡗ֥Ⴈڵހбᆞӈ౦ঃronmentalRestrictionsontheStructureoftheElectricitySector.༯ࢆ۷؟,ӑݖ6%bTechnicalReportPreparedbyNationalObservatoryofAthensؓଆყҩି৯ࣉྛܙؿགྷ,ھଆ࠱؇ყfortheGreekPublicPowerCorporation,LofosNimfon,This-ҩ֥༢༂ҵჿູ5%,طᄅ؇ყҩ֥༢༂ҵჿsion,.ູ[15] MirasgedisS,SarafidisY,GeorgopoulouE,%,ඪૼھଆႵࢠݺ֥ᇏ௹ყҩି৯,ؓmid-termelectricitydemandforecastingincorporatingweather৯ఒြ৯ט؇ა৯ࡹၰႵᇗေҕॉࡎᆴ,2006,31:208-227.ҕॉ໓ང[16] PeirsonJ,:,1994,16(4):235-243.[17] LeComteD,-[1] LotufoADP,,1981,20:casting:,Hun-
5 38 ႋ Ⴈ గ འ ࿐ Б 19ज EconometricAnalysisonBeijingTemperatureInfluenceuponElectricityLoadWuXiangyan1)g ZhangHaidon2)g1) (BeijingAcademyofSocialSciences,Beijing100101)2) (ChinaMeteorologicalAdministration,Beijing100081)AbstractThevariationofelectricityloadisinfluencedbytheweather,-elbetweenthemisestablishedbyusingofeconometricsmethod,),theheatingdegreedays(HDD)andthecoolingdegreedays(CDD),whicharethederivationindexoftemperature,,thedifferentinfluenceonloadofdifferentmonth,differentday(holidayandworkday),,R2isupto95%,,theelectric-ityloadwillincrease3%;theHDDincreases1e,%.,suchasSaturdays,Sundays,theMayDayholidayandtheNationalDay,is3%)4%lowerthanworkdays,intheSpringFestival,,%%:coolingdegreedays;heatingdegreedays;electricityload
