ꆡꆡꆡꆡ죋쏱뇒쪵볊뻹뫢믣싊:뿧쪱웚뻹뫢쒣탍헅ꆡꆡ췵뎾3ꆡꆡ쓚죝쳡튪ꆡ놾컄뷨본맺볊짏뗄뚯첬뿧쪱웚튻냣뻹뫢쒣탍,뷡뫏훐맺뗄쪵볊쟩뿶붨솢쇋튻룶킡맺뗄뾪럅뫪맛뺭볃쒣탍,첽쳖쇋맘쮰ꆢ믵뇒릩룸ꆢ헾뢮횧돶틔벰짺폽싊뗈튪쯘뛔뻹뫢믣싊뗄펰쿬ꆣ퓚쒣탍럖컶뗄믹뒡짏,놾컄샻폃볲풼볆솿랽돌맀볆쇋죋쏱뇒뻹뫢믣싊,뛔룷뺭볃믹놾튪쯘폫뻹뫢믣싊뗄뎤웚킭헻맘쾵뷸탐쇋뺭퇩럖컶,늢쳡돶쇋쿠맘헾닟붨틩ꆣ맘볼듊ꆡ뻹뫢믣싊ꆡ뿧쪱웚튻냣뻹뫢쒣탍ꆡ맘쮰ꆡ짺폽싊뗄믹뒡짏,샻폃늻춬쪱뛎뗄샺쪷쫽뻝뛔죋쏱뇒뻹튻ꆡ컊쳢뗄쳡돶뫍맺쓚췢컄쿗믘맋뫢믣싊뷸탐쇋퇐뺿ꆣ늷폀쿩(2002)퓚뿧쪱웚뿲볜쿂퇐뺿쇋샻싊뫍믵뇒릩룸뛔뻹뫢쪵볊믣싊뗄펰퓚뾪럅뺭볃쳵볾쿂,횻폐좷뚨쇋뻹뫢믣싊뗄쿬ꆣ틳뗂짺(2004)퇐뺿쇋헾뢮횧돶뛔쪵볊뻹뫢믣쮮욽,닅쓜쪹믵뇒떱뻖퓚췢믣쫐뎡짏뗄룉풤뻟폐싊뗄펰쿬ꆣ뿍맛틀뻝,뇜쏢쎤쒿탔ꆣ틲듋,캪쇋돤럖샭뷢쪵볊짏쫶퇐뺿뛔믣싊탐캪ퟶ쇋폐틦뗄첽쯷,떫죔뻹뫢믣싊뗄탐캪,헽좷쪵쪩룷훖헾닟뛔믣싊뷸탐듦퓚솽룶컊쳢ꆣ튻쫇뷡싛뗄늻튻훂탔ꆣ뇈죧뒫춳뗷뿘,듓샭싛짏퇐뺿룷훖틲쯘뛔쪵볊믣싊뗄펰쿬뗄쒣탍죏캪헾뢮횧돶뗄퓶볓믡쳡룟쮽죋쿻럑,듓쫇럇뎣뇘튪뗄ꆣ뛸쪹뗃쪵볊믣싊짏짽,뛸Penati(1987)죏캪헾뢮쒿잰컷랽샭싛뷧폐펰쿬솦뗄뻹뫢쪵볊믣싊샭횧돶뛔쎳틗욷뗄횧돶퓶볓믡붵뗍쪵볊믣싊ꆣ틳뗂싛훷튪폐Williamson(1994)뗄믹놾튪쯘쪵볊뻹짺(2004)죏캪헾뢮뛔럇쎳틗욷뗄횧돶퓶볓뛔쪵볊뫢믣싊쒣탍(FEER)ꆢEdwards(1989)뫍믣싊뗄펰쿬좡뻶폚쳦듺킧펦뫍쪵볊폠뛮킧펦뗄쿠Elbadawi(1994)뗄랢햹훐맺볒쪵볊뻹뫢믣싊쒣탍뛔듳킡,떫뻍훐맺살쮵쓄훖킧펦햼훷떼뗘캻ퟷ헟(ERER)ꆢStein뫍Allen(1995)뗄ퟔ좻쪵볊뻹뫢쎻폐룸돶뷡싛ꆣ퓙죧Calvo뫍Rodriguez(1977)죏믣싊쒣탍(NRER)틔벰MacDonald(1998)뗄탐캪캪쳡룟믵뇒릩룸퓶뎤싊붫떼훂놾뇒뇡횵뫍맺볊쫕쪵볊뻹뫢믣싊쒣탍(BEER)ꆣFrankel뫍Razin횧룄짆,뛸Liviatan(1981)퓚쿻럑헟뻟폐췪좫풤(1996)ꆢPenati(1987)ꆢDeGregorio뫍Wolf볻탔뗄볙짨쿂죏캪쳡룟믵뇒릩룸퓶뎤싊믡떼훂놾(1994)뗈퓚뿧쪱웚뻹뫢뿲볜쿂퇐뺿쇋헾뢮횧돶뛔뇒짽횵뫍맺볊쫕횧뛱뮯,솽헟뗄뷡싛잡뫃쿠랴ꆣ뛾쪵볊뻹뫢믣싊뗄펰쿬;Calvo뫍Rodriguez쫇뫶쫓쇋튻킩훘튪틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꆣ죧Williamson(1977)ꆢLiviatan(1981)퇐뺿쇋믵뇒릩룸뛔믣싊뗄펰쿬ꆣEdwards(1987)퓚뿧쪱웚뻹뫢뿲볜쿂퇐뺿쇋맘쮰돥믷뛔쪵볊뻹뫢믣싊뗄펰쿬ꆣ맺쓚톧헟헅ꆡꆡ3헅:짏몣붻춨듳톧낲첩맜샭톧풺ꆡ짏몣쫐뮪즽슷1954뫅ꆡ200030ꆡ뗧ퟓ탅쿤:laiyangquan@;췵뎾:짏몣붻쿾웓(2000)ꆢ쇖늮잿(2002)뫍헅뇳(2003)뻹퓚뷨춨듳톧낲첩맜샭톧풺ꆡ짏몣쫐뮪즽슷1954뫅ꆡ200030ꆣ본ퟷ헟룐킻솽캻쓤쏻짳룥죋뗄붨짨탔탞룄틢볻,컄퓰ퟔ뢺ꆣEdwards뫍Elbadawi뗄뗈뛠캻뺭볃톧볒돉맻쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2004쓪뗚8웚ꆡꆤ18ꆤ' 1995-2005 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
헅ꆡꆡ췵뎾ꆡꆡ(1994)ꆢMacDonald(1998)뗈죋뻹뫶싔쇋닆헾헾쏱뛔놾맺닺욷뗄쿻럑,m캪죋뻹쪵볊믵뇒폠뛮돖닟뛔믣싊뗄펰쿬,뛸맺쓚틑폐컄쿗췹췹뫶싔맘쮰폐ꆣ죋뿚내헕컈뚨쯙싊n퓶뎤,벴뗄펰쿬ꆣ퓙죧볆뮮짺폽헾닟ퟷ캪훐맺뛀폐뗄튻쿮Nα=nꆤN(3)헾닟,뺭맽뛠쓪뗄쪵쪩,틑뛔룶쳥뗄뿧쪱웚웚쿻럑웤훐,N캪ퟜ죋뿚ꆣ킧폃몯쫽닉폃틔쿂탎쪽:닺짺쇋펰쿬,늢떼훂훐맺뗄ퟜ탨쟳랢짺뇤뮯,떫쒿Ut(cT,cN,m)=ΑlncT+(1-Α)cN+lnm(4)잰뗄쿠맘퇐뺿좴쎻폐짦벰룃틲쯘ꆣΑ캪듺뇭탔탐캪헟쿻럑뗄뷸뿚욷햼ퟜ쿻럑욷놾컄쫔춼룹뻝Turnovsky(1997)뗄맺볊뺭볃뗄뇈훘ꆣ캪랽뇣쿂쏦뗄럖컶,샻폃닎쫽뢳횵훐놾믽샛뗄헦쪵쒣탍,닉폃뿧쪱웚뻹뫢뫍닎쫽(calibration),늢닎뾼늷폀쿩(2002),폃뷸뿚뛮햼뢳횵(calibration)뗄랽램,붨솢튻룶킡맺뗄뾪럅뫪맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뗄뇈샽뷼쯆듺쳦,뷼벸쓪뗄쫽뻝듖맛뺭볃쒣탍ꆣ좫컄낲업죧쿂:뗚뛾뷚붨솢튻룶뿧쪱싔맀볆캪ꆣ듺뇭탔탐캪헟듓짺닺ꆢ돖폐맺쓚햮웚뻹뫢쒣탍,늢럖컶룷믹놾튪쯘뛔뻹뫢믣싊뗄펰좯벰돖폐믵뇒훐믱뗃쫕죫,늢뷸탐쿻럑ꆢ횧뢶쮰쫕쿬;뗚죽뷚샻폃훐맺쓪뛈쫽뻝뛔믣싊폫짏쫶훮튪벰믽샛닆뢻,듺뇭탔탐캪헟뗄풤쯣풼쫸캪:쯘뗄쿠맘맘쾵뷸탐쇋뺭퇩럖컶;뗚쯄뷚닉폃볲풼mα+aα=y(k)-C(I)+(i-n)a-(Π+n)m-볆솿랽돌(Reduced2FormEconometric(1+Σ)cT-cNöe-T(5)Equations)뛔룷뇤솿폫뻹뫢믣싊뗄뎤웚킭헻맘쾵웤훐,a캪듺뇭탔탐캪헟돖폐뗄맺쓚햮좯,샻뷸탐쇋럖컶,늢폫틑폐컄쿗ퟶ쇋뛔뇈;뗚컥뷚뛔좫싊캪iꆣy(k)캪닺돶,C(I)캪웳튵뗄낲ힰ돉놾,I캪컄뷸탐쇋ퟜ뷡ꆣ춶뛮,T뇭쪾ퟜ솿쮰,Σ캪맘쮰싊,Π캪춨믵엲헍싊ꆣ닺돶ꆢ춶ꆢ햮좯벰믵뇒뗈뇤솿뻹틔쎳틗욷뇪뛾ꆡ쒣탍뗄짨뚨볛ꆣ듋췢,놾믽샛싊폫춶뗄맘쾵캪:αk=I(6)(튻)쒣탍볙짨듺뇭탔탐캪헟춨맽톡퓱쿻럑cTꆢcN,춶I,짨뚨튻룶킡맺뗄뾪럅뫪맛뺭볃쒣탍,놾맺쫇쪵볊믵뇒폠뛮m,돖폐뗄햮좯쫽솿a,쪹킧폃몯쫽맺볊쫐뎡볛룱뗄뷓쫜헟ꆣ듺뇭탔탐캪헟뻟폐췪좫듯떽ퟮ듳,틲듋붨솢몺쏜뛻뛙뇭듯쪽:풤볻탔ꆣ쒣탍붫볒춥뫍짺닺늿쏅뫏늢:듺뇭탔탐캪H=Ut(cT,cN,m,n)+Κ[y(k)-C(I)+(i-헟쳡릩샍뚯믱뗃릤,돖폐맺쓚햮좯뗃떽샻쾢,늢n)a-(Π+n)m-(1+Σ)cT-cNöe-T\]+qI(7)샻폃놾듦솿뫍샍뚯뷸탐짺닺ꆣ볙뚨컞뗖늹샻싊ퟮ듳뮯뗄튻뷗쳵볾캪:욽볛돉솢,벴:UΚCN=(8)ei=3eαi+(1)eUCT=Κ(1+Σ)(9)웤훐,맺볊샻싊3i쫇췢짺룸뚨뗄;i캪놾맺샻Cꇤ(I)=q(10)싊;e캪틔놾맺닺욷뇭쪾뗄맺췢닺욷뗄쿠뛔볛룱,닆뢻뗄펰ퟓ볛룱Κ뫍놾뗄쫐뎡볛룱q뗄뚯벴쪵볊믣싊;eα뇭쪾풤웚뗄믣싊뇤뚯ꆣ첬랽돌캪:(뛾)듺뇭탔탐캪헟Κα=ΒΚ-\[Um-Κ(Π+n)\]=ΒΚ-Κ(i-n)(11)컒쏇닎헕Obstfeld뫍Rogoff(1996),붫믵뇒틽죫킧폃몯쫽,뚨틥듺뇭탔탐캪헟뗄킧폃몯쫽qα=3eα(i+)q-Fk(12)e죧쿂:(죽)헾뢮ꇒo볙짨헾뢮퓊탭놾맺쏻틥믵뇒릩룸틔만뚨쯙뛈-pteUt(cT,cN,m)dt(2)0Τ퓶뎤,m캪죋뻹쪵볊믵뇒폠뛮,틲듋뿉뗃맘폚mUt(cT,cN,m)캪듺뇭탔탐캪헟뗄킧폃몯쫽,웤뗄캢럖랽돌:훐,cT캪놾맺뻓쏱뛔뷸뿚욷뗄쿻럑,cN캪놾맺뻓mα=(v-Π-n)m(13)쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2004쓪뗚8웚ꆡꆤ19ꆤ' 1995-2005 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
ꆡꆡ죋쏱뇒쪵볊뻹뫢믣싊:뿧쪱웚뻹뫢쒣탍놾맺헾뢮돖폐맺췢햮좯b,랢탐햮좯a뫍믵81λ3it뇒mΛ3(k0-k)]e(20)1-i,쫕좡쮰쫕T뫍맘쮰Σ,쿻럑뷸뿚욷gT뫍럇쎳틗욷gN,퓲헾뢮풼쫸캪:웤훐1,81=[((Ze-Zöe)ek-ecTK)+((Ze-αeb-aα=3(i-n)b+ΣcT+mα+(Π+n)m+T-Zöe)eq-ecTq)ΛC"]öe,b0캪햮좯뗄돵쪼듦솿ꆣ룹뻝(i-n)a-gNöe-gT(14)맺쓚닺돶쫐뎡뗄돶쟥쳵볾캪뫡뷘탔쳵볾3-itlimtꇺꇞbe=0뗃떽::y(k)=Z(e,n)öe+C(I)+cNöe+gNöe(15)b0=λ81b+λ헢샯붫돶뿚뇭쪾캪믣싊뫍짺폽싊ꋙ뗄몯쫽Λ3(k0-k)(21)1-i,늢쟒떱kα=qα=αb=0쪱,뺭볃듯떽컈뚨ힴ첬,퓲쿂Ze>0,벴믣싊뇡횵쪹뗃놾맺돶뿚퓶볓ꆣ맘폚돶뿚뫍짺폽싊횮볤뗄맘쾵,풬횾룕ꆢ쯎쇐뗈쪽돉솢:(2000)뫍λ췵죊퇔(2003)죏캪훐맺ퟔ70쓪듺훐웚뾪쪼뗄볆UΚCN=eγ(22a)뮮짺폽헾닟떼훂뗄훐맺죋뿚쓪쇤뷡릹뇤뮯,쫇떼UCT=λΚ(1+Σ)(22b)훂훐맺돇헲뻓쏱뒢탮짏짽틔벰쎳틗놣돖쮳닮뗄튻F3k=i=i(22c)룶훘튪풭틲,틲듋볙짨Zn<0,벴짺폽싊쿂붵쪹뗃Um=λΚ(Π+i)(22d)놾맺돶뿚퓶볓ꆣ평맺쏱욽뫢헋뮧뗈쪽뿉횪,죋뿚쓪λy(k)=Z(eγ,n)öeγ+cγNöeγ+gθNöeγ(22e)쇤뷡릹뇤뮯떼훂뻓쏱뒢탮퓶볓,붫쪹뒢탮춶닮뛮퓶듳,뷸뛸떼훂뺭뎣쿮쒿룄짆,듓뎤웚뾴,뻍튪Zλ(eγ,n)öeγ-(cγT+gT)+3(i-n)b=0(22f)0=gNö3λeγ+gT-(i-n)b-ΣcγT-vm{-aα쟳뻹뫢믣싊짽횵틔캬돖췢늿뻹뫢,틲듋짺폽싊뗄+(i뇤뮯붫믡뛔뻹뫢믣싊닺짺펰쿬ꆣ쪽-n)a-T(22g)(14)뫍쪽(5)쿠볓뗃랽돌81λ:b0=λb+Λ3(k0-k)(22h)1-iαb=Z(e,n)öe-(cT+gT)+3(i-n)b(16)닉폃뛔쫽쿟탔짺닺몯쫽ꆣ뛔짺닺몯쫽뷸탐닎(쯄)컈첬쪱뗄뇈뷏뺲첬럖컶쫽뢳횵,룹뻝몫춢뒺(1999)뗄맀볆,닺돶뛔놾뗄뺭볃뗄뚯첬퇝뮯평랽돌(6)뫍(12)뻶뚨ꆣ쿈붫떯탔캪,틲듋짺닺몯쫽짨캪y(k)=lnA+듋솽쪽퓚컈첬캻훃eγ뫍λk뢽뷼뷸탐튻뷗첩샕햹,A듺뇭벼쫵뷸늽,평듋뿉쟳뗃랽돌ퟩ뾪ꆣ믣싊e뗄캢럖랽돌캪:(22)훐뗄m{뫍cγTꆣeα=ekkα+eqqα(17)11짺폽싊쿂붵뛔뻹뫢믣싊뗄펰쿬평듋뿉뗃랽돌(6)뫍(12)뗄튻뷗첩샕햹뾪쪽:붫쪽(22f)솽뇟뛔짺폽싊n쟳떼,뗃떽kα01öC"k-kλde1dZ=λ(--b)eγ2ö[Zeeγ-Z(eγ,n)]dneγqα=-ΘykkΘ3(i+ekIꇤqöe+ekI(q)öe)q-qλdn(18)평쪽(22f)뾴돶,떱n쿂붵쪱,평폚dZ<0,쯹dn웤훐Θe=>0,짏쪽훐λkꆢqλ럖뇰뇭쪾컈틔쎳틗닮뛮eZ(eγ,n)öeγ-(cγT+gT)붫돶쿖쮳닮,뺭-qeq뚨ힴ첬쪱뗄kꆢq횵ꆣ뿉틔횤쏷짏쪽쾵쫽탐쇐쪽쫇뢺뗄,늢쟒뻟폐솽룶쳘헷횵:Λ1<0,Λ2>0,틲듋뎤ꋙ뻹뫢믣싊훷쇷컄쿗붫뻹뫢믣싊뚨틥캪폫쓚늿뻹뫢(훷튪웚뻹뫢쫇튻룶낰뗣뻹뫢ꆣk,q뗄뚯첬퇝뮯랽돌캪:쫇횸짌욷쫐뎡폫샍뚯솦쫐뎡)뫍췢늿뻹뫢(뿉돖탸뗄뺭뎣헋뮧)쿠튻훂뗄쪵볊믣싊ꆣ헅뇳(2003)룹뻝뻹뫢믣싊뻶뚨뗄샭싛쒣탍,붫k=λλΛk+(k0-k)e1t,q=qλ+Λ1Cλ"(k-k)(19)캪뷸탐뚯첬럖컶,붫쪽뻹뫢믣싊뗄쪵볊뻶뚨틲쯘럖캪릩룸ꆢ탨쟳ꆢ췢늿뮷뺳뫍짌튵헾닟(16)퓚컈첬뷸탐튻뷗쯄샠틲쯘ꆣ룹뻝쫀듺붻뗾쒣탍(풬횾룕ꆢ쯎,2000),훐맺짺폽싊첩샕햹뾪,늢냑쪽(19)듺죫뗃떽:뗄뇤뮯뛔죋쏇뗄뿧웚쿻럑닺짺펰쿬,떼훂탨쟳랢짺뇤뮯,틲듋죋λ뿚틲쯘뛔뻹뫢믣싊뗄펰쿬뿉틔맩폚뻶뚨뻹뫢믣싊뗄쯄샠틲쯘훐b(t)=λ81λΛb+Λ3(k0-k)e1t+\[b0-b-1-i뗄탨쟳틲쯘ꆣ쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2004쓪뗚8웚ꆡꆤ20ꆤ' 1995-2005 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
헅ꆡꆡ췵뎾ꆡꆡ뎣헋뮧튪욽뫢퓲탨튪뺻햮컱붫쪽(22g)솽뇟뛔gN쟳떼,뗃떽:-λb>0,틲듋1(-eγde1+M+NdZλ=>0-b)eγ2>0,Zeeγ-Z(eγ,n)>0,쯹틔de>0,벴짺dgNgNdndn[eγ2(1+M+NΧ)+eγ2(M+N)]eγ폽싊쿂붵,뻹뫢믣싊짽횵ꆣ헢쫇틲캪짺폽싊뗄쿂붵틲듋,헾뢮뛔놾맺닺욷뗄쿻럑쿂붵,놾맺믣싊붫믡벤샸뻓쏱퓶볓뒢탮(풬횾룕ꆢ쯎,2000)ꆣ평짽횵ꆣ랴횮,죧맻뛔놾맺닺욷뗄쿻럑짏짽,놾맺믣싊맺쏱욽뫢헋뮧뗈쪽뿉횪,죧맻뻓쏱퓶볓뒢탮,붫떼뇡횵ꆣ훂뒢탮춶닮뛮퓶듳,듓뎤웚뾴믡쪹뺭뎣쿮쒿룄51헾뢮뷸뿚닺욷쿻럑뛔뻹뫢믣싊뗄펰쿬짆,헢쪱탨튪뻹뫢믣싊짽횵틔캬돖췢늿뻹뫢ꆣ붫쪽(22g)솽뇟뛔gT쟳떼,뗃떽:21맺췢샻싊뛔뻹뫢믣싊뗄펰쿬de1붫쪽=>0(22f)솽뇟뛔3i쟳떼,뗃떽:dgTgNM+NΧ)+eγ2(M+N)eγ2(1+de3=\[-b0+di틲듋,헾뢮뛔뷸뿚닺욷뗄쿻럑쿂붵,놾맺믣싊323짽횵ꆣ랴횮,죧맻뛔뷸뿚닺욷뗄쿻럑짏짽,놾맺믣i(Λ1-ni)(i-nΛ1+23ni)3232]i(Λ1-i)싊뇡횵ꆣeγ2ö[Zeeγ-Z(eγ,n)]61놾맺쏻틥믵뇒릩룸퓶뎤싊뛔뻹뫢믣싊뗄짏쪽훐:81>0,Λ1>0,틲듋deö3di<0,벴맺펰쿬췢샻싊짏짽,놾맺믣싊짽횵ꆣ헢쫇틲캪맺췢샻싊짏붫쪽(22g)솽뇟뛔v쟳떼,뗃떽짽,놾췢쇷,듓뎤웚뾴붫쪹놾맺뺻햮좨춷듧뗄샻de-m쾢쫕죫짏짽=<0dvgNΧ,뺭뎣헋뮧룄짆ꆣ춬쪱맺췢샻싊짏짽뮹+M+N)-eγ2(M+N)eγ2(1믡춨맽뛔췢쎳틗살펰쿬뺭뎣쿮쒿ꋙ,튲믡쪹뺭뎣헋뮧룄짆,틲듋튪쟳놾맺쪵볊뻹뫢믣싊짽횵틔캬틲듋,믵뇒릩룸퓶뎤싊짏짽,믵뇒릩룸퓶볓쪹돖뛔췢욽뫢ꆣ맺쓚볛룱짏짽,쪹뗃쿠뛔볛룱쿂붵,벴쪵볊믣싊짽횵ꆣ놾맺쏻틥믵뇒릩룸퓶뎤싊쿂붵,놾맺믣싊뇡횵ꆣ31맘쮰싊Σ뛔뻹뫢믣싊뗄펰쿬붫쪽71벼쫵뷸늽뛔뻹뫢믣싊뗄펰쿬(22g)솽뇟뛔Σ쟳떼,뗃떽붫쪽(22g)솽뇟뛔A쟳떼,뗃떽decγTdΣ=-gNΧde5ö3\[4(Π+i)\]+1ö\[4(1+Σ)]=-<0(-dAgNΧeγ2(1+M+N)eγ2(M+N))(1+Σ)A[+M+N)-eγ2(M+N)]eγ2(1짏쪽훐:MΣ=(4평짏쪽뿉뾴돶,벼쫵뷸늽쳡룟붫쪹뻹뫢믣싊(1+Σ,Χ=Zeeγ-Zeγ),N=)5v4(Π+3ꆣ퓚컈첬쿂뷸탐뇈뷏뺲첬럖컶쪱짽횵,헢쫇틲캪짺닺싊뗄뿬쯙쳡짽듸살쇋놾맺닺,평폚i)욷돶뿚뺺헹솦폫뷸뿚쳦듺쓜솦뗄퓶잿,췢믣릩룸좱랦쪵볊뺭퇩쫽뻝뗄횧돖,쪽훐쾵쫽뗄듳킡뫍럻돊쿖쟷쫆탔퓶볓뛸탨쟳복짙,붫쪹뻹뫢믣싊짽횵ꆣ뫅쓑틔좷뚨ꆣ틲듋퓚늻캥랴뎣쪶뗄쟩뿶쿂,룹뻝뺭랴횮,벼쫵뷸늽쿂붵,놾맺뻹뫢믣싊뇡횵ꆣ퇩ퟶ돶볙짨ꆣ킻붨맺ꆢ돂샬룟(2002)샻폃훐맺1978ꆫ2000쓪뗄쫽뻝틔벰킭헻럖컶벼쫵,뗃돶훐ꋙ맺쎳틗쫕횧믣싊떯탔캪,틲듋믣싊뇤뮯뛔룹뻝쓂뮳엳뗈(2001)뗄퇐뺿,뺡맜컒맺놾쿮쒿늢쎻뾪럅,떫뛌웚놾죔뿉춨맽뛠훖춾뺶쳓뇜맜훆쇷죫맺쓚,틲듋훐맺돶뿚컞쿔훸펰쿬ꆣ본폚훐맺돶뿚뛔믣싊뇤뮯뗄떯뗄맺쓚췢샻닮쫇펰쿬믣싊뗄훘튪틲쯘횮튻,벴맺췢쏻틥샻싊짏짽탔뫜킡춨맽복짙놾쇷죫쪹맺볊쫕횧쮳닮복짙믲쓦닮퓶볓,떼훂쏻틥믣,틲듋gNeγ2(1+M+NΧ)-2(M+N)>0,뷸eγ싊뇡횵ꆣ뛸룹뻝뛅뷸뎯(2004)뗄퇐뺿,쯦ퟅ컒맺쎳틗쳥훆ꆢ믣싊쳥뛸de훆뫍맺쓚쫐뎡뺭볃뗄룄룯,훐맺뛔췢쎳틗뛔믣싊뇤뮯뗄쏴룐탔풽dΣ<0,벴맘쮰붵뗍,뻹뫢믣싊뇡횵ꆣ살풽듳,벴믣싊뇤뮯뗄쎳틗랢햹킧펦훰늽뗃떽잿뮯,틲듋쏻틥믣41헾뢮놾맺닺욷쿻럑뛔뻹뫢믣싊뗄펰쿬싊뇡횵붫틖훆뷸뿚퓶볓돶뿚,쪹뺭뎣쿮쒿룄짆ꆣ쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2004쓪뗚8웚ꆡꆤ21ꆤ' 1995-2005 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
ꆡꆡ죋쏱뇒쪵볊뻹뫢믣싊:뿧쪱웚뻹뫢쒣탍81뾪럅뛈뛔뻹뫢믣싊뗄펰쿬쮰싊뗈튪쯘폫쪵볊폐킧믣싊뗄쿠맘맘쾵뷸탐뺭퇩뾪럅뛈뫢솿쇋튻맺뺭볃뛔췢뾪럅뗄돌뛈ꆣ놾럖컶ꆣ맘쮰싊폃맘쮰쫕죫뛔뷸뿚뛮뗄뇈싊살듺쳦ꆣ컄룹뻝헅쿾웓(2000)뗄ퟶ램,폃뷸뿚뛮öGDP뫢맺췢샻싊닉폃쏀풪듦뿮샻싊ꆣ쪵볊믵뇒릩룸퓶뎤솿튻맺뗄뾪럅돌뛈뺭퇩,틲캪헢퇹쓜룼뿆톧ꆢ룼뺫싊쫇샻폃쏻틥믵뇒릲룸폫훐맺쿻럑컯볛횸쫽볆쯣좷뗄뫢솿튻맺뗄뾪럅뛈ꆣ평쪽(22f)뿉틔뾴돶,뾪뗃떽ꆣ짺폽싊폃돶짺싊뇭쪾ꆣ짺닺싊닉폃좫튪쯘럅뛈뗄퓶볓,벴쪽(22f)훐뷸뿚쿮cT+gT퓶볓,붫짺닺싊ꆣ놾컄쫽뻝살ퟔInternationalFinancial쪹쎳틗헋뮧뛱뮯,탨뻹뫢믣싊뇡횵틔캬돖뛔췢욽Statisticalꆢꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ,좫튪쯘짺닺싊살풴뫢,랴횮틠좻ꆣ폚쇵맺맢(2000)벰놾컄뗄볆쯣ꆣ뇭1캪룷튪쯘폫믣싊뗄쿠맘쾵쫽ꆣ틔맘쮰캪죽ꆡ믣싊폫훮튪쯘쿠맘맘쾵뗄럖컶샽,뿉틔뾴돶,맘쮰싊폫믣싊폐뫜잿뗄헽쿠맘탔,쿠맘쾵쫽캪,뇭쏷맘쮰싊짏짽,쪵볊믣싊짽샻폃1980ꆫ2001쓪뗄쓪뛈쫽뻝뛔짺폽싊ꆢ맘횵ꆣ웤쯻틲쯘폫믣싊뗄쿠맘뷡맻뻹폫샭싛럖컶튻훂ꆣ뇭1쪵볊폐킧믣싊폫룷믹놾튪쯘쿠맘쾵쫽돶짺싊맘쮰싊헾뢮쿻럑맺췢샻싊믵뇒릩룸퓶뎤싊짺닺싊뾪럅뛈쪵볊폐킧믣싊ꆡꆡ룹뻝ퟓ틸(2002)뗄퇐뺿,평폚볆뮮짺폽헾톹솦퓚뛌웚쓚뫜쓑룄뇤ꆣ닟뗄죋뿚믹쫽쿂붵킧펦뫍룃헾닟폫쿠맘뺭볃랢햹평폚쿠맘럖컶횻쫇룸돶쇋뇤솿볤뗄튻훖뛌웚쿠뮥ퟷ폃틽웰뗄ꆰ짧믡놾ꆱ뗄뇤뮯,훐맺뗄돶짺쿠맘맘쾵뗄쏨쫶,뛸뻹뫢쫇튻룶뎤웚뗄룅쓮,캪볬싊헦헽쿂붵쪼폚1991쓪,틲듋샻폃1991ꆫ2001퇩룷믹놾튪쯘폫뻹뫢믣싊볤뗄뎤웚컈뚨맘쾵,쿂쓪뗄쓪뛈쫽뻝,돶짺싊폫폐킧믣싊횸쫽뗄쿠맘쾵쏦닉폃킭헻랽램뷸탐럖컶ꆣ쫽캪,벴뛾헟뢺쿠맘,뇭쏷놾맺돶짺싊짏짽,믣싊뇡횵ꆣ늢쟒쪱볤뗄췆틆,쿠맘탔룼잿:샻폃쯄ꆡ훐맺쪵볊뻹뫢믣싊뗄볬퇩1992ꆫ2001쓪뗄쫽뻝,뛾헟쿠맘쾵쫽캪ꆣ훚쯹훜횪,훐맺20뛠쓪잰뻍쪵쪩쇋볆뮮짺폽헾(튻)쫽뻝쮵쏷뫍볬퇩닟,떫룃헾닟뛔짺폽싊뗄펰쿬틔벰짺폽싊뗄뇤뮯퓚짏튻킡뷚컒쏇샻폃뿧쪱웚쒣탍럖컶쇋룷튪뛔뺭볃뇤솿뗄펰쿬폐튻뚨뗄쪱훍ꆣ짺폽싊뗄쿂붵쯘폫믣싊뗄맘쾵,틲듋놾킡뷚붫룹뻝볲풼볆솿랽믡벤샸뻓쏱퓶볓뒢탮,떼훂뒢탮춶닮뛮퓶듳,쪹돌쒣탍,뛔룷믹놾튪쯘폫뻹뫢믣싊볤뗄뎤웚컈뚨뗃뺭뎣쿮쒿쫕횧돶쿖쮳닮,뛔뻹뫢믣싊닺짺짽횵맘쾵뷸탐뺭퇩럖컶ꆣ캪뇜쏢틅슩뿉쓜폫뻹뫢믣싊톹솦ꆣ평짏쏦뗄쫽뻝뿉틔뾴돶,쯦ퟅ쪱볤뗄췆틆,폐뎤웚컈뚨맘쾵뗄뇤솿,놾컄돽뾼싇잰쏦쒣탍훐돶짺싊폫폐킧믣싊횸쫽뗄쿠맘탔풽살풽잿,헢쮵틑럖컶뗄튪쯘췢,뮹뾼싇쇋쎳틗쳵볾뫍쎳틗닮뛮쏷,쯦ퟅ쪱볤뗄췆틆,볆뮮짺폽헾닟뛔훐맺뺭볃뗄뗈뿉쓜폫쪵볊믣싊폐킭헻맘쾵뗄뇤솿ꆣ믣싊톡좡펰쿬훰붥쿔쿖ꆣ평폚듓1991쓪떽떱잰뗄쫽뻝퇹놾캪죋쏱뇒쪵볊폐킧믣싊,틔REER뇭쪾,짏짽듺솿늻릻,컞램뛔돶짺싊폫폐킧믣싊뗄뎤웚킭헻맘뇭믣싊짽횵,쿂붵듺뇭뇡횵ꆣ뛔룷뇤솿뷸탐뛔쫽뒦쾵뷸탐볬퇩,떫춨맽짏쫶뗄샭싛뫍쿠맘럖컶,놾컄샭,웤훐뛔쎳틗쓦닮,쿈뛔웤뻸뛔횵좡뛔쫽,좻뫳죏캪떱잰죋쏱뇒짽횵톹솦뗄짮닣풭틲뫜뿉쓜살ퟔ좡뢺뫅ꆣ죋뿚쓪쇤뷡릹뗄뇤뮯ꆣ평폚죋뿚쓪쇤뷡릹뗄뇤뮯룹뻝킭헻볬퇩뗄뇪ힼ늽훨,쫗쿈샻폃떥캻룹뛔죋쏱뇒믣싊살붲쫇튻룶뎤웚뗄뻶뚨틲쯘,틲듋,랽램볬퇩믣싊뫍룷룶믹놾쏦틲쯘뗄욽컈탔ꆣ샻폃쒿잰훐맺뗄룟뒢탮싊ꆢ쎳틗쮳닮틔벰믣싊뗄짽횵떥캻룹볬퇩뫍킭헻럖컶랢쿖,헾뢮쿻럑돊뛾뷗떥쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2004쓪뗚8웚ꆡꆤ22ꆤ' 1995-2005 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
헅ꆡꆡ췵뎾ꆡꆡ헻탔(벴헾뢮횧돶뇈웤쯻믹놾튪쯘틔룼뿬뗄쯙뛈횵,쟒닐닮훍뫳쿮뗄믘맩쾵쫽뻹쿔훸캪쇣,틲듋뿉퓶뎤),틲듋붫웤업돽,좫튪쯘짺닺싊뫍맺췢샻싊틔뛏뚨쒣탍늻듦퓚ퟔ쿠맘탔ꆣ닉폃에뚨쾵쫽램뫍뻹캪I(0)탲쇐,틲듋튲놻업돽,ퟮ훕헒돶쇋폫죋욫쿠맘쾵쫽볬퇩뇭쏷뇤솿볤튲늻듦퓚뛠훘릲쿟쏱뇒믣싊듦퓚뎤웚컈뚨맘쾵뗄5룶튪쯘:맘쮰싊ꆢ탔ꆣ좻뫳뛔뺲첬믘맩뗄닐닮ퟷ떥캻룹볬퇩:ADF쎳틗쳵볾ꆢ맣틥믵뇒릩룸ꆢ뾪럅뛈뫍쎳틗닮뛮,늢볬퇩춳볆솿캪,5%쿔훸탔쮮욽쿂뗄쇙쟒뻹캪I(1)탲쇐ꆣ룷뇤솿뛔뻹뫢믣싊뗄샭싛펰쿬뷧횵캪,D1W1횵캪,볬퇩뷡죧쿂:(1)쎳틗쳵볾(TOT):쎳틗쳵볾뗄룄짆,붫맻뇭쏷닐닮쿮늻듦퓚떥캻룹,쯼쫇욽컈탲쇐ꆣ틲룄짆놾맺뗄뺭뎣헋뮧ꋙ,틲듋탨튪뻹뫢믣싊뗄짽듋,짏쫶탲쇐횮볤뗄좷듦퓚킭헻맘쾵,킭헻랽돌뇭횵틔캬돖뛔췢뻹뫢,랴횮퓲뇡횵ꆣ(2)맘쮰쪾캪:(TARIFF):횱맛뗘살쮵,헾뢮쳡룟맘쮰믡쪹뷸뿚LREER=+2125965LTOT뗄쎳틗욷쿠뛔낺맳,놾맺쿻럑헟뛔뷸뿚뗄탨쟳복+++짙,뺭뎣헋뮧룄짆,늢쟒죧맻놾맺쫇튻룶듳맺,쳡룟맘쮰믡쪹닺욷뗄쫀뷧볛룱쿂붵,퓚돶뿚볛룱늻평짏쫶랽돌뿉틔뾴돶,믹놾뺭볃튪쯘뛔죋쏱뇤뗄쟩뿶쿂붫룄짆놾맺뗄쎳틗쳵볾,듓뛸튲믡룄뇒뻹뫢믣싊뗄펰쿬랽쿲폫샭싛뚨탔럖컶쫇튻훂짆놾맺뗄뺭뎣헋뮧,틲듋탨튪믣싊짽횵틔캬돖뛔뗄,벴:쎳틗쳵볾뗄룄짆ꆢ맘쮰싊뗄퓶볓ꆢ믵뇒릩룸췢뻹뫢ꆣ(3)뾪럅뛈(OPENESS):놾컄폃뷸뿚뛮ö뗄퓶볓뫍쎳틗닮뛮뗄쳡룟붫쪹뻹뫢믣싊짽횵;뛸GDP살뫢솿뾪럅뛈ꆣ듓뎤웚뾴,뾪럅돌뛈퓶볓붫뾪럅뛈뗄삩듳믡쪹뻹뫢믣싊뇡횵ꆣ쪹뺭뎣쿮쒿뛱뮯,틲뛸탨튪뻹뫢믣싊뇡횵틔캬돖(죽)믹놾쏦틲쯘뗄뎤웚뻹뫢횵뛔췢뻹뫢,랴횮퓲믣싊짽횵ꆣ(4)맣틥믵뇒릩룸캪쇋뗃떽뷼20뛠쓪살죋쏱뇒쪵볊뻹뫢믣싊(M2):듓샭싛짏붲,맽뛈뗄믵뇒삩헅붫떼훂맺쓚횵,닉폃H2P싋늨램뗃떽쎳틗쳵볾ꆢ맘쮰ꆢ뾪럅볛룱뗄짏짽,쪹뗃쪵볊뻹뫢믣싊짽횵ꆣ쿠랴,믵뇒뛈ꆢ믵뇒릩룸ꆢ쎳틗닮뛮뗈튪쯘뗄ꆰ뻹뫢횵ꆱ,룹뻝릩룸쿂붵,붫떼훂쪵볊뻹뫢믣싊뇡횵ꆣ(5)쎳틗닮싋늨뫳뗄쫽뻝쯣돶죋쏱뇒뗄뻹뫢믣싊벰죋쏱뇒쪵뛮(BALANCEOFTRADE):떱쎳틗쮳닮퓶볓볊믣싊뗄쪧뗷쟩뿶ꆣ놾컄맀볆죋쏱뇒믣싊퓚1986쪱,붫떼훂뻹뫢믣싊짽횵;쿠랴,떱쎳틗쮳닮붵뗍ꆫ1988쓪뫍1990ꆫ1995쓪욫뗍,퓚1983ꆫ1985쪱,붫떼훂뻹뫢믣싊뗄뇡횵ꆣ퓚뺭퇩럖컶훐,쎳틗쓪ꆢ1989쓪뫍1996ꆫ2001쓪욫룟,폫헅쿾웓닮뛮폃돶뿚복뷸뿚뇭쪾ꆣ(2000)뗄뷡맻뫜뷓뷼,헢쮵쏷폃늻춬쒣탍볆쯣뗃(뛾)쒣탍맀볆떽뗄뷡맻뻟폐튻뚨뗄컈뚨탔,쟸뇰횻쫇쪧뗷뗄돌뾼싇떽컒쏇톡좡뗄쫇쓪뛈쫽뻝,쫽뻝솿뷏짙,뛈늻튻퇹ꆣ틲듋컒쏇폃킭헻랽램훐뗄Engle2Granger솽늽램살뛔LREER폫LTARIFF,LTOTꆢLOPENESSꆢLMꆢLTRADE횮볤뗄맘쾵뷸탐킭ꋙKent뫍Cashin(2003)샻폃뿧쪱쒣탍퇐뺿죏캪:뺭뎣헋헻볬퇩ꆣ쫗쿈ퟷ뺲첬믘맩,듓믘맩뗄뷡맻뿉뾴돶믘뮧폫쎳틗쳵볾횮볤뗄맘쾵틀삵폚쎳틗쳵볾돥믷뗄돖탸탔,떱쎳틗맩랽돌훐뗄룷뇤솿뚼쿔훸(볻뇭2),랽돌뗄쓢뫏쳵볾뗄뇤뮯쫇뎤웚탔뗄쪱뫲,춶킧펦뎬맽쿻럑욽뮬킧펦,쎳틗쳵볾폫뺭뎣헋뮧캪뢺쿠맘;랴횮떱쎳틗쳵볾뗄뇤뮯쫇뛌웚탔뗄쪱쟩뿶볻춼1,R2캪,뗷헻뫳뗄R2캪뫲,쎳틗쳵볾폫뺭뎣헋뮧캪헽쿠맘;Kent샻폃Andrews(1993)뗄01957272,뿉볻쓢뫏쮮욽쫇뫜룟뗄ꆣD1W1횵캪median2unbiasedestimation랽램뫍1960ꆫ1999볤뗄쓪뛈쫽뻝맀11265601,실퓚쟸볤(4-dU,4-dL)짏볆쇋128룶맺볒(냼삨훐맺)쎳틗쳵볾돥믷뗄돖탸탔,뷡맻캪훐맺,틲듋컞램에뛏ퟔ쿠맘탔,틲듋뷸튻늽닉폃늼싞쮹-룪뢥샗뗄쎳틗쳵볾뗄돥믷쫇뛌웚뗄,캪뗃떽훐맺쎳틗쳵볾폫뺭뎣헋뮧뗄볬퇩쿠맘쾵쫽,놾컄내헕Kent뗄랽램,샻폃1980ꆫ2001볤뗄쓪뛈쫽(Breusch2Godfrey,볲돆BG볬퇩)ꆣBG볬퇩뻝,뗃떽뛾헟뗄쿠맘쾵쫽캪,틲듋뻍훐맺살쮵,퓚퇹놾웚뗄훍뫳웚듓1뷗뾪쪼횱떽10뷗,퓚5%뗄쿔훸쮮쓚,쎳틗쳵볾폫뺭뎣헋뮧캪헽쿠맘,벴쎳틗쳵볾룄짆,붫룄짆뺭뎣욽쿂,BG볬퇩뷡맻뇭쏷볬퇩춳볆솿뻹킡폚쇙뷧헋뮧ꆣ쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2004쓪뗚8웚ꆡꆤ23ꆤ' 1995-2005 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
ꆡꆡ죋쏱뇒쪵볊뻹뫢믣싊:뿧쪱웚뻹뫢쒣탍ꆡꆡ뇭2뺲첬믘맩뷡맻뇤솿쾵쫽뇪ힼ닮T춳볆솿쮫닠쿔훸뛈ꆡꆡ틲뇤솿뻹횵뗷헻뫳뗄ꆡꆡ틲뇤솿뇪ힼ닮믘맩뇪ힼ닮ꆡꆡ돠돘탅쾢ힼ퓲닐닮욽랽뫍ꆡꆡSchwarz탅쾢ힼ퓲뛔쫽쯆좻뇈ꆡꆡF춳볆솿.춳볆솿ꆡꆡ쿔훸쮮욽쟒퓚뺭퇩훐튲뗃떽쇋퇩횤ꆣ퓚뺭퇩럖컶짏,튪럖쪱컥ꆡ뷡싛뛎뫍쫽뻝욵싊뛔펰쿬뻹뫢믣싊뗄틲쯘뷸탐볆솿럖컶,틲캪쒳킩틲쯘췹췹횻퓚쳘뚨뗄쪱볤뛎뛔믣싊놾컄샻폃뚯첬뿧쪱웚튻냣뻹뫢랽램붨솢쇋튻폐쿔훸뗄펰쿬ퟷ폃,뇈죧맽좥뗄10뛠쓪볤,훐맺룶킡맺뗄뾪럅뫪맛뺭볃쒣탍,놾컄뗄샭싛럖컶뫍뗄맘쮰싊뷸탐쇋듳랶캧ꆢ듳럹뛈뗄뗷헻,훐맺뷱뫳뺭퇩퇐뺿뷡맻뇭쏷:맺췢샻싊ꆢ헾뢮쿻럑ꆢ짺닺싊죔붫내헕볓죫WTO뗄돐억볌탸럖늽붵뗍맘쮰쮰폫쪵볊믣싊뻟폐뛌웚쿠맘맘쾵,쪵볊믵뇒릩룸ꆢ맘싊ꆣ춳볆쫽뻝쿔쪾,훐맺뗄쯣쫵욽뻹맘쮰쮰싊틑평쮰싊ꆢ쎳틗쳵볾ꆢ뾪럅뛈뫍쎳틗닮뛮폫쪵볊믣싊폐1992쓪뗄%붵떽2003쓪뗄11%,헢훖듳럹뎤웚뗄컈뚨맘쾵,늢쟒샭싛럖컶폫뺭퇩뷡맻믹놾뛈뗄뗷헻뇘좻믡뛔죋쏱뇒뻹뫢믣싊닺짺펰쿬,룹쫇컇뫏뗄ꆣ붵뗍맘쮰쫇훐맺볓죫WTO돐억횮튻,뻝놾컄뗄뷡맻:맘쮰싊뫍폐킧믣싊횮볤뗄쿠맘쾵뿉틔쿫볻,쯦ퟅ훐맺죫맘횮뫳돖탸뗘뗷뗍맘쮰,퓚쫽캪,뿉볻솽헟폐뫜잿뗄쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ듓맘쮰뎤웚붫룸죋쏱뇒듸살뇡횵톹솦ꆣ쯤좻평폚춳볆쫽싊뫍폐킧믣싊뗄뎤웚맘쾵뾴,솽헟폐ퟅ컈뚨뗄킭뻝뗄컊쳢,컞램뛔돶짺싊폫폐킧믣싊뗄뎤웚컈뚨헻맘쾵,맘쮰싊뛔뻹뫢믣싊뗄떯탔쾵쫽캪0.맘쾵뷸탐볬퇩,떫룹뻝샭싛뫍뺭퇩럖컶,훐맺짺폽3076ꆣ싊뗄쿂붵뫜뿉쓜쫇죋쏱뇒닺짺짽횵톹솦뗄튻룶훘뷼웚죋쏱뇒짽횵컊쳢쫜떽쇋폐맘룷랽쏦뗄맣튪풭틲ꆣ풤볆2001ꆫ2010쓪,훐맺뻓쏱뗄쿠뛔룟랺맘힢ꆣ뺿뺹죋쏱뇒펦늻펦룃짽횵쓘?듓놾컄뗄뗄뒢탮쟣쿲늻뿉쓜뫜뿬룄뇤,췪짆뗄짧믡놣헏쳥뷡맻뫍쿠맘컄쿗뿉틔뾴돶,죋쏱뇒믣싊쪼훕캧죆쾵짐캴좷솢튲튪쟳뻓쏱뒢탮뗄퓶볓,뛸21쫀볍돵뻹뫢믣싊짏쿂늨뚯,쒳튻쪱뛎돶쿖룟맀믲뗍맀쫇샍뚯죋뿚뗄뷏뿬퓶뎤뫍뢧퇸싊뗄붵뗍퓲폐샻폚맺헽뎣뗄ꆣ맘볼쫇튪헒돶놳뫳뗄풭틲,닉좡쿠펦뗄듫쏱뒢탮싊뗄뷸튻늽쳡룟ꆣ틲듋,쒿잰훐맺쎳틗쮳닮쪩뷸탐뗷뿘ꆣ늻쓜튻뾴떽죋쏱뇒얼폐쪧뗷,뻍튪뗷틔벰믣싊뗄짽횵톹솦퓚뛌웚쓚뫜쓑룄뇤ꆣ헻쏻틥믣싊ꆣ듓놾컄뗄럖컶뾴,닆헾믵뇒헾닟ꆢ맘퓚믹놾쏦틲쯘폫뻹뫢믣싊맘쾵뗄볬퇩짏,펦쮰뗈틲쯘뻹폫믣싊폐뷏잿뗄쿠맘맘쾵,뿉틔닉좡믽벫뷨본맺볊짏쿈뷸뗄쫽톧쒣탍볓잿뛔뻹뫢믣싊뿘훆믵뇒릩룸ꆢ삩듳탨쟳뗈쿠맘듫쪩뛔쪵볊믣싊뗄샭싛럖컶,뇈죧틑폐뗄뻹뫢믣싊퇐뺿훐,췹췹뫶뷸탐뗷뷚ꆣ늢쟒믣싊뗄쪵볊뇡횵뿉틔춨맽럇쎳틗싔맘쮰싊뗄펰쿬,놾컄늻떫샻폃뿧쪱웚뻹뫢쒣탍욷쿠뛔쎳틗욷뗄쿠뛔볛룱뇤뮯쪵쿖,뛸늻튻뚨럇뛔맘쮰싊뛔뻹뫢믣싊뗄펰쿬뷸탐쇋샭싛럖컶,뛸튪쪹쏻틥믣싊뇤뮯,헢뿉틔춨맽탨쟳헾닟뛔쿠뛔쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2004쓪뗚8웚ꆡꆤ24ꆤ' 1995-2005 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
헅ꆡꆡ췵뎾ꆡꆡ볛룱쪩볓펰쿬뛸듯떽ꆣ듓뎤웚살뾴,놾컄죏캪짺폽Andrews,D.ꆰExactlyMedian2UnbiasedEstimationofFirst싊뗄쿂붵쫇떼훂훐맺쎳틗쮳닮틔벰믣싊뗄짽횵톹OrderAutoregressiveöUnitRootModels.ꆱEconometrica,1993,솦뗄튻룶훷튪풭틲,룹뻝풬횾룕뫍쯎61(1),-165.(2000)뗄럖컶Calvo,,.ꆰAModelofExchange,헢뿉틔춨맽볓듳뛔뷌폽뫍R&D뗄춶죫살RateDeterminationunderCurrencySubstitutionandRational뷢뻶ꆣ틲캪헢늻뷶뿉틔횱뷓삭뚯춶탨쟳,뮹뿉틔Expectations.ꆱJournalofPoliticalEconomy,1977,85(3),pp.춨맽벼쫵뷸늽붵뗍룶죋ퟮ폅뒢탮싊ꆣ횻튪뒢탮쓜617-625.릻폐킧뮯캪춶,떥캻샍뚯뗄놾엤훃늻뛏퓶DeGregorio,,.ꆰTermsofTrade,뎤Productivity,andtheRealExchangeRate.ꆱNBERWorking,훐맺뺭볃뻍늻믡돶쿖뛌웚ퟜ탨쟳뗄늻ퟣ,퓬돉죋쏱뇒짽횵뗄톹솦튲믡뮺뷢ꆣ헾뢮뷸탐뫪맛뻶닟Paper,,,S.ꆰTariffs,TermsofTrade,andtheReal쪱튪ퟛ뫏뾼싇튻쿮헾닟뛔뺭볃뗄펰쿬,죋쏱뇒쒿ExchangeRateinanIntertemporalOptimizingModelofthe잰쫇럱벱탨뗷헻뮹탨튪좨뫢뛠랽쏦뗄틲쯘,쒿잰CurrentAccount.ꆱNBERWorkingPaper,,1987.ퟮ훘튪뗄쫇튪쏷좷뛔죋쏱뇒믣싊뷸탐뗷헻뗄훐뎤ꆪꆪ.ꆰRealExchangeRatesintheDevelopingCountries:웚쒿뇪ConceptsandMeasurement.ꆱNBERWorkingPaper,,,늢ퟶ뫃쿠맘뗄엤쳗듫쪩,캪죋쏱뇒믣싊뗄뗷헻좡뗃뫃뗄풤웚킧맻ퟶ뫃돤럖뗄ힼ놸ꆣ,.ꆰEstimatingLongRunEquilibriumExchangeRate,ꆱinJohnWilliamson,ed.,Estimating닎뾼컄쿗:,DC:Institutefor뛅뷸뎯(2004):ꆶ믣싊룄뇤폫쎳틗랢햹ꆷ,짏몣닆뺭듳톧돶냦InternationalEconomics,1994,pp93-133.짧ꆣFrankel,,몫춢뒺(1999):ꆶ뺭볃돖탸퓶뎤뗄쓚퓚믺훆럖컶ꆷ,놱듳뺭볃,MA:MITPress,1996.퇐뺿훐탄,http:öööcnöꆣKent,,P.ꆰTheResponseoftheCurrent쇖늮잿(2003):ꆶ죋쏱뇒뻹뫢믣싊뗄맀볆폫쪵볊믣싊듭캻뗄AccounttoTermsofTradeShocks:PersistenceMatters.ꆱIMF닢쯣ꆷ,ꆶ뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ뗚12웚ꆣWorkingPaper,,2003.쇵맺맢(2000):ꆶ훐맺뺭볃듳뇤⁄뺭볃퓶뎤랽쪽뇤뗄ퟛLiviatan,N.ꆰMonetaryExpansionandRealExchangeRate뫏퇐뺿ꆷ,맣뚫죋쏱돶냦짧돶냦ꆣDynamics.ꆱJournalofPoliticalEconomy,1981,89(6),pp.쓂뮳엳ꆢ닌뫆틇ꆢ탬퇠ꆢ췴킡퇇(2001):ꆶ샻싊뫍믣싊헾닟킭뗷1218-1227.폫캬뮤맺볒뺭볃낲좫ꆷ,뺭볃뿆톧돶냦짧ꆣMacDonald,R.ꆰExchangeRateandEconomic늷폀쿩(2002):ꆶ맘쮰ꆢ믵뇒헾닟폫훐맺쪵볊뻹뫢믣싊ꆷ,ꆶ뺭Fundamentals:AMethodologicalComparisonofBEERSand볃퇐뺿ꆷ뗚5웚ꆣFEERS.ꆱIMFWorkingPaper,,1998.췵죊퇔(2003):ꆶ죋뿚쓪쇤뷡릹ꆢ쎳틗닮뛮폫훐맺믣싊헾닟뗄Obstfeld,,뗷헻ꆷ,ꆶ쫀뷧뺭볃ꆷ뗚9웚ꆣ:MITPress,1996.킻붨맺ꆢ돂샬룟(2002):ꆶ죋쏱뇒믣싊폫쎳틗쫕횧:킭헻퇐뺿Penati,A.ꆰGovernmentSpendingandtheRealExchange폫돥믷럖뷢ꆷ,ꆶ쫀뷧뺭볃ꆷ뗚9웚ꆣRate.ꆱJournalofInternationalEconomics,1987,22,-틳뗂짺(2004):ꆶ헾뢮횧돶폫뻹뫢쪵볊믣싊ꆷ,ꆶ쫀뷧뺭볃ꆷ뗚웚ꆣStein,,풬횾룕ꆢ쯎(2000):ꆶ죋뿚쓪쇤뷡릹ꆢ퇸샏놣쿕훆뛈폫ퟮ폅:OxfordUniversityPress,1995.뒢탮싊ꆷ,ꆶ뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ뗚11웚ꆣTurnovsky,.헅뇳(2003):ꆶ죋쏱뇒뻹뫢믣싊:볲풼튻냣뻹뫢쿂뗄떥랽돌쒣TheMITPress,1997.탍퇐뺿ꆷ,ꆶ쫀뷧뺭볃ꆷ뗚11웚ꆣWilliamson,J.ꆰEstimatesofFEERs,ꆱinJohnWilliamson,헅쿾웓(2000):ꆶ뻹뫢폫쪧뗷:1978-1999죋쏱뇒믣싊뫏샭ed.,:탔움맀ꆷ,ꆶ뷰죚퇐뺿ꆷ뗚8웚ꆣInstituteforInternationalEconomics,1994,-243.ퟓ틸(2002):ꆶ쓚짺죋뿚퓶뎤폫뎤웚뺭볃퓶뎤ꆷ,ꆶ쫀뷧뺭볃ꆷ뗚4웚ꆣ(뷘룥:2004쓪5퓂ꆡ쪵쾰뇠벭:룟붨럦)쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2004쓪뗚8웚ꆡꆤ25ꆤ' 1995-2005 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
ꆡꆡꆡꆡTariff,ExchangeRateandWelfareWangShengZouHengfuBasedontheframeworkofnewopeneconomyeconomicsthispaperfocusesontheimpactsofthechangeoftariffonproduction,consumption,,,,whilethebiggercountrycanraisethelevelofitswelfareatthecostofothercountry’:TheDevelopmentoftheIntra-regionalTradeandtheDistributionoftheBenefitXuJianjunThispapergivesanappraisaloftheASEANeconomiccooperationfrom1990swithseveralindices,,:AnIntertemporalAralysisZhangyingWangHuanchenUsinginter2temporalapproachtothecurrentaccount,,moneysupply,governmentspendingandfertility,etc.,,getthefundamentalsthathaverelationofcointegrationwithequilibriumexchangerate,andreachessomerelativeconclusions.쫀뷧뺭볃3ꆡ2004쓪뗚8웚ꆡꆤ80ꆤ' 1995-2005 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
