캬웕톶 B {ꆶ뛔对췢外뺭经볃济贸쎳易틗大듳学톧学톧报놨)ꆷ2?仪??1?0年쓪第뗚2?期웚?慰닆政헾金뷰翻죚?ꆩ?马십歇킪尔뛻튻一勒샕纳쓉条쳵件볾的뗄实쪵证횤研퇐究뺿?「卜气iÞ<忍1).2，反쿃刷「쏅门1大듳톧碎学폠主뇳旦?严阳P扣f~呻f扣cOJ撼햪毒튪委全생王쟲球엌革죚金融뚯动떴荡ꎬ，哥틽引웰;톧起쫵学术뷧界뛔对죋人E民쏱ι币뇒쫇是럱否뇡眨횵值的뗄争헹论싛cꆣ马십歇킪尔뛻튻一샕勒纳쓉条쳵件볾是쫇关맘于폚?货믵币뇒贬뇡佳횵能쓜否럱改룄善짆属맺际볊放쫕支状횧ힴ况况뿶a的뗄主훷妾튪理샭论싛之횮一튻，ꎬ但떫这헢一튻模쒣型탍由평于폚进뷸生돶口뿚需탨求쟳弹떯'탔洼뗄的不늻易틗计볆?算쯣.ꎬꎮi뛸l号쿵销랦乏쿠和펦应짠传쓵쪵实횤证퇐研뺿宠?。럮本컄立퓚在붨建솢立틗易폚于볆计쯣算뗄的뷸选出돶口뿚毒탨쟳求弹퇳탔性传뗄公릫式듷횮之后뫳?，对쪱马퓙歇킪尔뛻?튻一勒샕自主헹条볾件뷸进탐持쇋军쪵实횤证퇐研究뺿?3?쪵实횤证再晋췰充뺿完생全횧支뺳持십马킪歇尔뿛-?革샕牵쓉线쳵条볾件뗄构샭理싛论뫡模型탍aꆣ?关맘볼键词듊십马킪歇뛻象ꆪ一?샕勒巍쳵条볾件送뷸虫돶E뿚需탨拳릿떯弹탔性实쪵证횤研퇐究뺿??튻一、ꆢ引틽言퇔?낮受亚퇇澜훞金뷰黯죚危캣挠믺和뫍全좫球쟲经뺭挤벷动뚯荡떴射影펰响쿬.ꎬ我컒画훜췢外贸쎳出돶口뿚增퓶长뎤듓从1??9?9亨?쓪年的뗄?2?1.ꎮ?0?2ꎥ%下쿂降붵?到떽?1?9?98?年쓪的뗄?0?.?5?6ꎥ%。ꆣ由평于폚뷰金죚融캣危믺机뗄的횱直接뷓뇭表쿖现是쫇컁危믺机国맺볒家约뗄믵货币뇒듳大럹幅贬뇡횵值，ꎬ?因틲듋此，ꎬ不늻少짙人죋?士쪿죏认为캪.ꎬ캣危机믺理맺家볒춨通맽过货믵币뇒贬뇡횵值提쳡高룟了쇋웤其出돶口뿚商짌品욷的뗄뺺竞争헹力솦，ꎬ人죋民쏱币뇒튲也只?有폐跟룺ퟅ着贬뇡值횵?z才닅能쓜?与폫危캣机믺国맺家볒相쿠抗뾹衡뫢哩ꎬ达듯到떽促듙进뷸外췢贸쎳出돶口뿚的뗄目쒿的뗄。ꆣ?然좻而뛸，ꎬ쇭另外췢튻4些킩죋人主쪿말到죏认캪为，ꎬ人죋民쏱币뇒뗄的汇믣率싊变뇤뮯化对뛔췢外贸쎳出돶口뿚的뗄펰影确쿬并늢?没有폐想쿫像쿱中훐的뗄那쓇么쎴?大듳。ꆣ他쯻们쏇的뗄샭理싛论依틀据뻝횮之튻→是쫇，ꎬ춨通맽过货믵币뇒贬뇡횵值살来改룄善짆国맺际볊收쫕夷횧状ힴ况뿶，ꎬ쫇是有폐一튻뚨定条쳵件볾弱뗄。ꆣ因틲为캪汇믣?率싊调뗷整헻对뛔外췢贸쎳迸뷸出돶口뿚的뗄影펰响쿬主훷要튪是쫇通춨过맽价볛格룱饥믺秘훆实쪵现쿖的뗄。ꆣ一튻盟맺军믣汇싊率쮮水욽平뗄的뗷调뗍低，ꎬ붫将导떼致훂该룃国맺?以틔췢外罢맺王믵货뇒币뇭表쪾示뗄的돶出?뿚口짌商욷品쟈价룱格춬同뇈比샽部降붵뗍低?L从럶那뛸促듙迭뷸出돶口뿚γ??而뛸该룃属맺以틔本놾属맺货믵币뇒表뇭示쪾的뗄进뷸口뿚?商짌品욷价볛格룱则퓲同춬比뇈例샽上짏升짽，ꎬ从듓而뛸抑틖制훆进뷸口??。ꆣ但떫是쫇，ꎬ货믵币뇒贬뇡值횵只횻能쓜直횱뷓接促듙进뷸出돶口뿚商짌品욷数쫽量的뗄培퓶?볓Dtꎬl춬‘쪱同평时폚由돶于뿚出볛口룱价쿂格붵下?撑떥，‘캻单쫽也솿数짌量욷商뗄品돶的뿚出쫕口?죋收튲入쿠也펦相应복减짙少?猾솽离훖种ퟷ作폃用럡相쫳뮥互뗖抵짓消剖뗄뷡结?맻果电ꎬ不늻一튻뚨定?能?使쪹出돶口뿚뛮额随쯦汇믣싊率붵降뗍低뛸而扩삩듳大，ꎬ国맺际볊쫕收횧支状ힴ况뿶튲也캴未必뇘能쒿?릻够改룄善짆。ꆣ因틲而뛸.ꎮ只횻有폐当떱商짌?品욷볛价格룱的뗄变뇤动뚯和뫍商짌品욷数쫽量솿约뗄变뇤动뚯满싺足ퟣ→튻定뚨关맘系쾵时쪱，ꎬl벴lP一튻国맺出돶口?헑雳탨쟳求떯弹性탔与폫进뷸口뿚需탨求쟳弹떯性탔满싺足ퟣ?튻一뚨定灼뗄条쳵件볾쪱时，ꎬ谤냹国맺实쪵탐行믵货币뇒贬뇡횵值的뗄헾政策닟닅才能쓜扩삩亢?贸쎳易틗폠余额뛮。ꆣ헢这뻍就是쫇马십歇킪尔뛻튻刊勒샕豌쓉条쳵件볾。ꆣꎮ根룹?据뻝헢这些킩人죋士쪿的뗄计볆算쯣雹ꎬ컒我国맺抬뗄出돶口뿚탨需쟳求弹떯性탔폫与뷸进口뿚需탨쟳求弹떯탔性的뗄뻸绝뛔对횵值支첫킡小?，不늻能쓜싺满足ퟣ马십歇뛻尔튻一?勒샕纳쓉条쳵件볾.ꎬ因틲此듋不늻主훷张헅人죋民쏱币뇒贬뇡值횵。ꆣ?ꎮ?ꎮ???二뛾、ꆢ马십歇킪尔뛻一튻般샕绩쓉条쳵件볾?ꆯ????ꎬ?这헢里샯讨쳖论싛的뗄是쫇马십歇킪尔뛻一튻勒샕纳쓉条쳵件볾的뗄一튻种훖常뎣用폃部뗄简볲化뮯模쒣型탍，ꎬ它쯼与폫一튻般냣马십噬킪尔뛻一튻辈샕革쓉纳쳵条볾件쒣模?型탍的뗄区쟸뇰别퓚在폚于假ꎬ볙定뚨进뷸出돶口뿚商짌品욷的뗄供릩给룸具뻟有폐完췪全좫弹떯性탔，ꎬ因틲此듋汇믣率싊妥탍革뷙对뛔串맺品볊位쫕支횧状ힴ况뿶的뗄影펰碗쿬?뻍就좡取决뻶予폚进뷸出돶口뿚商짌品욷的뗄需탨求쟳弹떯性탔cꆣ植쯦着ퟅ全좫亘쟲在뺭经볃济뗄的튻一쳥体뮯化ꎬ，뺺竞헹争?岳쟷趋벤激쇒烈?，?人쏇似튻一냣般죏认为캪上짏?述쫶假볙定뚨是쫇成돉立솢掉뗄"ꎬꎮ充폈其웤是쫇在퓚发랢生짺经뺭济볃和뫍金뷰融죚危캣抗믺、ꆢ商짌品욷供릩过맽于폚求쟳的엎刽쪱瓣웚。守ꆣꆮ?" ‘짨设돶出죕口짌商品욷的뗄讲췢币뇒价볛格룱为캪1ꎮ?'?)?돶;뿚，쫽也솿口数캪量?为?ꎻ伊뷸:뿚进짌口商욷品??德웋外뇒币볛价듫格캪为P??mꎬ，뷸进뿚口ꎺ쫽数솿量为캪??Q园?，ꎮꎬ?'틲渴듋此돶出ꎬ口뿚的ퟔꆷ外췢币뇒额뛮为캪:ꎺ、???ꎮ??(1?)? V??xꎺ:P?x?.Q?x? ?튻???-25
캬웕톶 닆财政헾뷰金戴죚?ꆶE玲뛔玲췢经뺭济볃贸쎳易틗大듳学톧学톧报놨}ꆷ?2仪??J?O年쓪第뗚?2期웚?进뷸口뿚的뗄外췢币뇒额뛮为캪:ꎺ?(?2?)? ?Y?m=?白??宫?。?由?틔以췢外币뇒볆计价볛的뗄贸쎳易틗差닮额뛮为캪1ꎺ?(?3?)ꆢ B?=?V?x?-ꆪV??m?圭P?x??Qx?-ꆪP?m?Q??m?设짨间볤뷓接计볆볛价的뗄汇믣싊率为캪飞?ꎬ벴~p一튻单떥位캻本놾币뇒值횵t?单떥位캻外췢币뇒.ꎬ因틲此듋e?变뇤大듳表뇭示쪾本놾市뇒升짽值횵ꎬ.?e뇤变킡'J、뇭表?示쪾本놾币뇒贬뇡值횵3ꆣ再퓙设짨出돶口뿚商짌品욷的뗄놾本币뇒价볛格룱为캪p?.?ꎬ，뷸进口뿚짌商욷品的뗄本놾币뇒价볛格룱为캪p??mcꆣ于폚是쫇，ꎬ我컒们쏇有폐?(?4?)? P??x?=e?p?.? ???ꆢ?????ꎮ?(5 ) 挤在=甲鱼为캪了쇋研퇐究뺿볛价格룱与폫数쫽量솿的뗄맘关系쾵，ꎬ我컒쏇们还뮹需탨要튪构릹造퓬뷸迸出돶口뿚需탨求쟳函몯数쫽3ꆣ镶볙定뚨外췢国맺对뛔我컒雷맺出돶口뿚商짌?品욷的뗄需탨求쟳量솿是쫇我컒国맺出돶口??商짌品욷外췢币뇒价볛格룱的뗄减복函몯数쫽，ꎬ盟벴章볛价룱格풽越룟高ꎬ唱돶出뿚口탨需쟳求솿量풽越킡小;ꎻ뛸而컒我国맺对뛔进뷸?口뿚짌商욷品뗄的탨需쟳求솿量퓲则쫇是进뷸口뿚商짌品욷놾本币뇒价볛格룱的뗄减복函몯数쫽οꆣ因틲듋此，ꎬ出돶口뿚需탨求쟳函몯数쫽为캪:ꎺ?(?6?)? ?Q?x =?华?(?P??x?)?进뷸口뿚需탨求쟳函몯数쫽为캪:ꎺ?(?7?)? ?Qm? =?Q?m?(??p?.)? =?Q?m?(?P?m?/ꎯ?叫?接뷓쿂下살来.ꎬ我컒们쏇就뻍可뿉以틔推췆导떼马십歇킪尔뛻튻勒샕쓉纳条쳵件볾。ꆣ显쿔然좻，ꎬ为캪使쪹震뇡僵횵能쓜够릻改룄善짆国맺际볊收쫕支횧状ힴ况뿶ꎬ?벴IIP芒?풽越킡小ꎬ，?B越풽大듳，ꎬ就뻍必뇘须탫有폐??????ꎯ??ꎺ???ꎯ??ꆪ???ꎯ?????(8) dB/de = d飞Ix/de-dVm/de<。其웤中훐?(?9?)? ?d?V?xꎯ/d?e? =? ?Q雪?d??Px??/ꎯd??e +? ?Px??d?Q?xꎯ/ d??e ?= Q?平???+?P?xꎮ? ? d?Q?x?/ꎯd?P??x)? (??dP?x?/ꎯd?e?)? =ꎺV?x?/ꎯe?(??(?d?Q?宝/ꎯQ?x?)?ꎯ/{?d??Px?ꎯ/P?x?)?+? 1?)? ?= ?V?xꎯ/e?(?E?x? +? 1?)ꆢ? 헢这里샯.ꎬ?E?x=?í?d??Q吱?ꎯ/Q?x?)?/ꎯ(?d?P?X?/ꎯ?P??x쫇)돶是?뿚出탨口쟳需떯求탔弹性ꎬ.쟒旦평由폚于릩供룸给췪完좫全떯弹탔性뗄的볙假뚨定雹ꎬ出돶口뿚商짌品욷?的뗄本놾币뇒价볛룱格不늻黯쯦汇믣率싊而짌变뇤动뚯cꆣ?(?1??0)? d?可?m?/ꎯd?e??= ?Q?m?d?P?mꎯ/?d?e+? P??m?d?Q?mꎯ/d?e? =?0? +?P??m(??d?Q四?/ꎯd?p?m??)(? d??pꎮ"ꎯJ d??e)? ꆣ?ꆮꎺ=矶??时?d?Q??m/ꎯd?p?m?)?(?튻-P?m?ꎯ/ε?'?)? =? 튻-(?V??mꎯ/e??) ?d??Q?mꎯ/?Qm?)? ꎯ/(d??p?m?/ꎯp?m?)? ꎺ튻???ꎯ?????= -(Vm/e)Em 这헢里샯，ꎬE??mꎺ=(?d??Q?m/ꎯ?Q?m?)ꎯ/(?d?p?m?/ꎯp?m?)?是쫇进뷸口뿚需탨求쟳弹떯性탔，ꎬ且쟒应평于폚供릩给룸完췪全좫弹떯性탔的뗄假볙定뚨哩ꎬ进뷸口??商짌品욷?뗄的外췢币뇒价볛格룱不늻黯?汇믣率싊部뛸变뇤动뚯。ꆣ?将붫作?}??和뫍(?1?0?)?代듺人죋(??部?ꎬ，뗃得?ꆮ?(?1?1?)? (?V??xꎯ/V??m?)?(?E?x?+1?)? +?E?m?<?。??这헢就뻍是쫇马십歇킪尔뛻一튻勒샕续쓉条쳵件볾的뗄表뇭达듯式쪽平ꆣ?三죽、ꎬ、뷸迭돶出?ꎺ口탨需쟳求떯弹탔性뗄的쪵实횤证릫公쪽式?듓从(??H?)?可뿉以틔看뾴出돶?튪要펦应쮦用马십歇킪尔뛻一튻勒샕纳쓉条쳵件볾电ꎬ曹쫗先쿈就뻍要튪计볆算쯣付?1?)?ퟳ左뇟边的뗄筐횵，ꎬ헢这샯里돆称웤其캪为马십?킪歇尔뛻튻勒샕纳쓉筐횵。ꆣ뛸而볆计쯣算십马킪歇뛻尔튻-샕勒쓉纳횵值，ꎬ뻍就탨需튪要횪知뗀道틔以췢外뇒币볆计볛价뗄部뷸进돶出?口?짌商욷品뛮额뫍和뷸迸出돶口뿚需탨求쟳?弹떯性탔§ꆣ평由于폚(??V?xlꎯ￥??剧?쫇是쿠稽뛔对쫽数电ꎬ폫与믵货뇒币뇒市훖种컞无맘关，ꎬ틲因듋此횻只탨需튪要틔以쏀美풪元볆诗볛价퓏的뷸迸돶出口뿚짌商品욷额뛮数쫽?뻝据，ꎬ뛸而헢这튻一쫽数뻝据可뿉以틔从듓《ꆶ훐中맺国몣海关맘统춳计볆年쓪鉴본》ꆷ中훐查닩到떽。ꆣ삧困쓑难횮之뒦处在퓚于폚，ꎬ죧如뫎何볆计쯣算迸뷸出돶口뿚需탨求쟳弹떯性탔。ꆣ?죧如맻果내按照헕迸뷸出돶口뿚탨需求쟳弹떯탔性抱뗄定뚨义틥去좥直횱뷓接计볆算쯣咱ꎬ뻍就탨需要튪知횪道뗀所쯹有폐迸뷸出돶曰??商짌品욷的뗄价볛格룱变뇤动뚯与폫?튻??ꆪ?-26 -
캬웕톶 《ꆶ뛔对췢外뺭经볃济贸쎳易틗文듳学톧学톧报놨}ꆷ2??0?00?年쓪第뗚2?期웚?蹲닆破헾金뫐.?数쫽量솿变뇤动뚯的뗄情쟩况뿶咽ꎬ计볆算쯣出돶每쎿一튻种훖迸뷸出돶口뿚商짌品욷的뗄탨需求쟳弹떯性탔，ꎬ然좻后뫳进뷸行탐加볓权좨平욽均뻹求쟳得뗃cꆣ这헢要튪求쟳볆计?算쯣헟者能쓜够릻获믱뗃得各룷뗘地海몣关맘最ퟮ详쿪尽뺡的뗄报놨맘关数쫽据뻝，ꎬ并늢豆쟒能쓜够릻在퓚蟹맺内쓚市쫐场뎡上짏获믱得뗃进뷸口뿚商짌品욷的뗄本놾币뇒价볛?格룱.ꎬ然좻后뫳才닅有폐希쾣望췻通춨过맽运퓋用폃大듳型탍计볆算쯣机믺计볆算쯣血돶透뷸出돶口뿚需탨求쟳弹떯性탔的뗄数쫽值횵。ꆣ这헢→튻点뗣恐뿖泊엂连솬海몣关맘总巳ퟜ?署쫰和뫍国맺家볒统춳计볆局뻖都뚼元컞法램做ퟶ到떽。ꆣ?因틲듋此.ꎬ뇘必须탫릹指造퓬出돶쓜能릻够运퓋用폃宏뫪맛观쫽数据뻝来살计볆쯣算的뗄뷸迸出돶口뿚需탨쟳求弹떯性탔公릫式쪽?企事쫂实쪵上짏，ꎬ我컒们쏇可뿉以틔?듓从前잰面쏦的뗄{?钓??租뫍(?1?0)?中훐推췆떼导出돶所쯹需탨要튪剖뗄公릫式쪽。ꆣ岛평。??}?뿉可得뗃zꎺ?(?1?2?)? ?E?x :ꎺ (??dV??xꎯ/?d?e?)ꎯ1(?V??xꎯ/e?)? 튻-1? =? (??dV?:?χIꎯV?x?)?/ꎯ(?d?e?/ꎯe?)? 튻-1? =ꎺ돶出뿚口뛮额뗄的퓶增뎤长率싊/ꎯ믣汇싊率뗄的퓶增뎤长率싊-튻1?自평(1??0?)?可뿉得뗃:ꎺ?ꎮ?(?1??3)? ?Eꎯ血??事ꎻ，ꎮ-튻(??d?V?mꎯ/?d?e?)ꎯ/(ꆮV?m?ꎯ/e?)? =? 튻-(??d?V?mꎯ/V?m?)?/ꎯ(?âe?lꎯε?}? ?튻?ꎺꎬ=守뷸进口뿚뛮额始뗄퓶增长뎤싊率ꎯ7~믣t率싊幸뗄亏퓶增뎤长싊率?有폐了쇋(?1?2?)?和뫍(?1?3?)?.ꎬ컒我쏇们뻍就뿉可以틔룹根뻝据《ꆶ中훐嚣맺믚海关맘统춳计볆年쓪鉴본3ꆷ和뫍폐有关맘汇믣싊率的뗄的뗄数쫽据뻝살来计볆算쯣?迸뷸出돶口뿚需탨求쟳弹떯锥탔?i进뷸而뛸对뛔马십歇킪尔뛻一튻勒샕纳쓉条쳵件볾进뷸行탐实쪵证횤研퇐究뺿。ꆣ?回쯄、ꆢ实쪵证횤研퇐究뺿?根룹뻝据짏上述쫶릫公式쪽和뫍有폐关맘数쫽뻝据飞ꋳꆶ晃쏙表뇭1?幸뫍福뇭袤?匀?ꎬ，컒我쏇们用폃(?1?2?)?和뫍(?1?3?)?볆计쯣算쇋了四???96?年쓪至훁?1?9?98??年쓪我컒里맺对뛔部늿럖分国맺家볒的뗄뷸迸出돶口뿚商짌品욷的뗄需탨求쟳弹떯性탔，ꎬ见볻表뇭?3ꆣ0?袤뇭1?人죋民쏱币뇒汇믣率싊?1?白??无풪人죋.쏱1i!뇒Jlj? 튻?1??9?组5年쓪?E?悍??岳?茸뻜??1?9?9?7年뻜??1?9?98?年뻜?ꆯ?쏀美z풪?ꆯ??1?1?.9??3?9?0哇???12?ꎮ，0?2?啤??9??1??2ꎮ.0?5?9?2??7 튻?1??2ꎮ?.0??7쓩_? 主主7，837每届 ，ꎮ쒼美曹냷??ꎮ????????????????ꆮ??ꎮ????????ꎮ???????马십克뿋?ꎮ??1?7.?白?1?1??7?1?7?.?雹??75?9??W??.ꎮ2?l?罪?串?4???21??. 2?7?量??92??重룛重兀풪?"?9?2.?46?2?0?3?? ?92?ꎮ.%??4?8?8? ?93?事ꎮ?4?O?n?5???93??.?:5?4?:53?7? ?a죕 ꆣ풪???????????????????????????ꎮ?????’:iiO 769宁主 63王5875马십来살蜜컷置퇇棕쇖벪吉蒋쳘?3?0?.ꎮ?01?9??唾6??30??.2?7?6?4?2?? ?3?1?.?主?罗7??4?4?苞???Z骂??1??3?新탂望볓自웂搜풪元?1??7?.0?3?1??9? 1?岳??9??47??3吉??1??7ꎮ:3?9?8?8??2? 2??0ꎮ.0?9?1?25?? 泰첩雷맺篝??29?7?ꎮ. 1?6??21?? ?303.ꎮ?0?7?苍7??ꆣ3?3?2?.ꎬ3?3届???5??04??,9?3??8?9? 全생薄쟲??11?. 9?5?1??9? 1??2ꎮ.0?1?1??4?2? 1??2ꎮ.?0?5?n?6?? 1??2?但???棉?2??注힢ꎺ有폐맘关军?事싊数쫽据뻝囱평中훐墨맺人죋民쏱틸银行탐厦쿃门쏅市쫐分럖行탐提쳡供릩?3考뾼患싇重떽j美쏀元풪作ퟷ为캪泣쫀界뷧货믵币뇒的뗄实퇧黯볊选뗘位캻.全ꎮ球생数쟲量룓毒뻝所쯹适쫊用폃汇?率림，?屠쮦《?中훐国맺海몣关맘统춳计年볆盛쓪》본中ꆷ进훐t뷸Il돶o?ꎺ?얺商品욷的뗄美쏀풪元价훱值횵与폫人죋民쏱哥뇒价훱值횵I엁JIJ比뇈值횵算쯣出돶。ꆣ?듓从表뇭3?中훐뿉可?以看뾴巍캺，ꎬ主뺡事맜管ꆤ一냣般쮵说살来탨需쟳求弹떯性탔应펦当떱是쫇负뢺数쫽，ꎬ0벴0价볛楼룱풽越窝짌?，需탨求쟳量솿越풽低뗍，ꎬ就뻍?像쿱我컒画맺对뛔美쏀展맺的뗄道쿹口뿚需탨求쟳弹떯性탔一튻样퇹，ꎬ但떫这헢里샯还뮹有폐很多뛠弹떯性탔健횵本첫子폚零쇣。?4这헢쮵说现쏷现샭实쪵中뗧的뗄经뺭挤볃现쿖?象쿳是쫇十쪮分럖复뢴杂퓓的뗄，ꎬ不늻仅뷶价볛格룱影펰响쿬需탨求쟳，ꎬ反랴过맽来살，ꎬ需탨求쟳也튲影펰响쿬价볛糖룱。?在쇭另췢外ꎬ，쯙选샯里늻不짙少웷需쟳求弹떯탔性?值횵的뗄绝뻸对뛔值횵都뚼大듳于폚?I.ꎬ뛸而以틔췹往的뗄有폐关맘文컄献쿗.훐p탨需쟳求떯弹탔性횵值뗄的뻸绝뛔对횵值뚼都킡小于폚1?。ꆣ这헢些킩文컄章쿗主뮹还폃用뗍低?弹떯性탔살来说쮵现쏷货믵币뇒贬뇡횵值뛔对改룄善짆国맺际볊收쫕支횧状ힴ况뿶剖뗄作ퟷ用폃不늻太첫。ꆣ떫但真헦正헽的뗄맘关键볼，ꎬ不늻퓚在于폚这헢些킩弹떯性탔信횵有폐?多뛠大듳或믲多뛠小킡，ꎬ而뛸在퓚于폚官쯼们쏇是쫇否럱满싺足ퟣ马십歇킪尔뛻一튻勒샕纳쓉条쳵件볾。ꆣ?튻??ꆪ?-27 -
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캬웕톶 《ꆶ뛔对췢外뺭经볃济贺쎳易틗大첫学톧学톧报놨)ꆷ2??i?悦)?(쓪)年뗚第2?웚期?닆财政헾金뷰融죚?值횵时쪱.ꎬ我컒医맺对뛔新탂加볓坡웂的뗄贸쎳易틗余폠额뛮增퓶加볓，ꎬ而뛸当떱1?9??97?年쓪和뫍1?绑??在?쓪年죋人쏱民뇒币뛔对탂新加볓웂坡元풪升짽值횵时쪱，ꎬ我컒?医쓍对新?加坡的贸易余额下降③因此，实证횤研퇐究뺿对뛔写십歇킪쳵尔뛻?一튻勒샕샕纳쓉쓉条쳵낸볾샭폯?쇋?좫뗄???틲듋ꎬ쪵件볾理샭论싛给룸予폨了쇋莞췪全좫的뗄支횧持돖。ꆣ?亵뇭?4马십歇킪尔뛻-뛾?锄샕纳쓉值횵폫与逃뷸出돶口뿚贸쎳易틗余폠慧뛮的뗄变뇤化뮯情쟩况뿶?马십藏东ꎬ햧-?벬罄剥쓉篷횵?贸쎳易틗金폠뛮额撞믻培퓶뎤养?i잧干美쏀元풪}?国맺家볒믲或地뗘区쟸??国?9?6?쓪年?1??9?9?7年??1?9?98?年쓪??1?9?9?6年쓪??1?9?97?年?1??9?98?年쓪?쏀맺??1?7?.4?8?7?2??7? ?11?4.? ?1?0?9?8? 1?8??4?.?9由??8??1??9?33?甜??回?，8??8~?~?臼???4엄li?5?07??7?6? 美国펢맺??ꎮ???????ꆪ?ꎮ??????ꆪ????????????ퟃ??????????????英国呈3-圭.49434-13. 77呈24943届王16765842411 篝뗂囡맺?2?ꎮ.2?7?6?3?0?1?? ?1ꎮ. 8?8?0?7?5?1? 0?.ꎮ0?王??50?5?7??8??84??9?64?? 1??7?9?71?1?1?? 1??7?9?8?4? 香쿣港룛?튻??ꎮ????????????ꆪ????????ꆪ????ꆧ??????튻???????? -2313t~抖11 1 1:lO36 -47帽837죕럮?튻?ꎮ??????튻????????????????냘??????????ꆪ????????E 本 -0. 43207 2243227 1138385 -14雪8728马십来살西컷亚퇇?-튻4?.ꎮ7?1?9?7?圭??3?.ꎮ0??6盟???3?5?ꆪ-0?.?4?弹???45??-ꆪ8?3??65?2? ?3?00ꇞ0?3?2? -ꆪ骂?。?4?2?3??4?ꎮ新탂1볓10撞웂:?튻-1?.ꎮ豆?制措?-튻lꎬ.ꎮ0??l6?1?3?? ꆪ-0?.2ꎮ?1?7?1?6?? 4??呈?09?2??ꆪ-2??8?93?2??0? -ꆪ1?笠??)0?3??7?훳?맺ꎮ?『튻茸碍.ꎮ2??2?29ꎬ?0?.?6?7?2쇄77? -튻0?.ꎮ6?1?4?8?2?? -ꆪ7?7?6?呈??94??1??22?7?3?1?"? -튻6?4?3?0?6?2?? 在医全생ꎮ球ꎮ?『튻远??.뒣~?11??7?2??????????3??7ꎮ.2?9?5?6?2?? ꆪF帚??48?1?2?.?76?‘ꎮ????组??1?5?0蝇??，绍.~5??月部5~. ’ ’ 也五컥、ꆢ启웴示쪾?ꎮ?ꎬ?짏上쫶述研퇐究뺿表뇭明쏷，ꎬ虽쯤然좻现쿖实쪵世쫀界뷧十쪮分럖复뢴杂퓓，ꎬ于룉挽죅~틲素뫀很뫜多뛠，ꎬ经튻뺭济볃现쿖象쿳仍죔然좻为캪一튻定뚨串曾뗄经뺭济볃规맦?律싉쯹所횧엤支ꆣ配ꎬ튻?。，ꆯ?飞, ?ꆣ?ꆣ?ꆢ?既볈然좻马십歇尔뛻，튻.샕，쓉.쳵被볾纳샭条싛件理틑论뺭已뗃撞떽得쪵到횤实퇐证뺿研뗄究?횧的돖变持ꎬ퓚，在컒我쏇们훆制뚨定쫊适틋宜엎的믵货뇒活헾就策닟B쪱苦，ꎬ?就뻍应펦当떱对뛔宫쯼掠볓过?A毒뾼싇虑。ꆣ侄떫是쫇部?듓从짏上쏦面的뗄研퇐究뺿뷡结果맻来살看뾴，ꎬ网춬→튻对뫻攘ꎮ，ꎬ我컒臣맺就뛔不늻再퓙回맺家볒的엳迸뷸出돶口뿚?商짌品욷的뗄需탨求쟳弹떯位탔不늻同춬，?两뛔周一튻量맺草볒案뗄的뷸迸돶出뇙际짌商욷品뗄始탨森쟳求떯弹탔住퓚在늻不뚱洞뗄的쓪年럝份튲也늻不춬阂，ꎬꆢ헢这뻍就볓加듳大?了쇋刽定뚨远쫊宜틋的뗄在믣理싊事헾政닟策뗄岱쓑难度뛈Dꆣ比뇈如죧，ꎬ죧如맻果我컒画맺对뛔쏀美昌맺的뗄进뷸出돶口죕商짌品욷跑뗄탨需쟳求养떯性탔?4?继볌按탸不늻满싺?足ퟣ马십歇킪尔뛻一튻勒샕每每쳵条볾件ꎬ，쓇那쎴么，ꎬ为캪了쇋扩삩大첫我컒!맺ï뛔I쏀对맺美뗄国쎳的컨贸폠易余뛮额?，뻍就펦应떱当죃让죋人쏱民뇒币뛔对쏀美풪元升짽?值횵;ꎻꎺ죧如果맻我컒国맺对뛔新킽加볓板웂的뗄迸뷸出돶口뿚商짌品욷的뗄需탨求쟳弹떯性탔，ꎬ继볌续탸满싺足ퟣ马십歇킪尔돐一튻勒샕酶쓉条쳵件볾，ꎬ那쓇么쎴，ꎬ为캪了쇋?扩삩大듳我컒昆쓤对뛔新加볓坡웂的뗄贸쎳易틗余额뛮，ꎬλ죋民쏱币뇒뛔对新탂加볓坡웂元풪的뗄贬뇡值횵就뻍是쫇必뇘要튪的뗄白?，ꎮ떫但쫇是죧如맻果짏土쫶述솽两种훖情쟩?况뿶同춬时쪱存듦在퓚，ꎬ而뛸雷맺德냪货믵币뇒市쫐榻뎡上짏新탂第볓披웂元풪对뛔美쏀元풪贬뇡值횵与?我컒们쏇又폖该룃怎퓵么쎴办냬呢쓘??헢这时쪱죋人民쏱顶뇒对뛔美쏀?元풪升짽值횵，ꎬ뻍就늻不可뿉能쓜뛔对탂新细볓绩웂元풪贬뇡횵值:ꎻ对뛔新탂볓加坡웂元풪贬뇡值횵，ꎬ就뻍不늻哥뿉能쓜对뛔쏀美元풪升짽횵值。ꆣ可뿉以틔考뾼虑싇的뗄对뛔?策닟离폐两솽条.쳵;ꎺ-튻..쫇.是报듳大럅放킡11'，ꆢ综ퟛ뫏合考뾼虑싇整헻个룶对뛔外췢贸쎳易틗形탎势쫆，ꎬ使쪹得뗃汇?率싊的뗄调整헻能쓜够릻以틔对뛔一튻方랽贸쎳易틗?余폠额뛮的뗄辈뷏辈뚨元퓶培볓刻좥去??补뎥偿뛔越쇭另튻一랽方쎳贸틗易폠余뛮额穗뷏较킡小쿂下붵酶ꎻ，뛾二쫇楚춰满헻整뷸迸돶出ꆯ뿚口짌商욷品뷡结쫷楠，ꎬ改룄变뇤迸뷸出돶?口뿚짌离品욷的뗄탨需求쟳弹떯性탔?J使쪹原풭来살满싺足ퟣ马십歇루尔뛻一튻教샕纳쓉条쳵伶볾变뇤得뗃不폪싺满足ퟣ，ꎬ原풭살来不늻싺满足ퟣ십马歇킪尔뛻-ꆤ샕敬纳쓉条쳵?件볾的뗄变뇤得뗃满싺忌ퟣ，ꎬ?以틔扩삩大듳我컒国맺对뛔外췢贸쎳易틗部엎贸쎳易틗余폠额뛮。ꆣ?一늻不맽过ꎬ，듓从짏上쏦面뗄的쪵实횤证퇐研뺿究살来뾴看，ꎬ뷸进出돶口뿚商짌?品욷的뗄탨需求쟳辣떯性탔的뗄变뇤动풽非럇常뎣大첫，ꎬ迫웈切쟐需탨要튪对뛔路듆加볓以틔进뷸一튻步늽研퇐究뺿.ꎬ.ꎮ죏认쟥清뇤变뚯动的뗄原풭因틲，?ꆢ‘럱否퓲则튻一떩旦出돶?现쿖뛔对进뷸出돶口뿚商짌品욷需탨求쟳弹떯性탔的뗄估맀计볆错듭误컳，ꎬꎮ导떼致훂决뻶策닟失쪧误컳，ꎬ是쫇会믡造퓬成돉巨뻞大듳损쯰失쪧去告뗄ꆣa?ꎮ?ꆮ?{?퓰责죎任뇠编벭辑王췵法}?ꎮ?-2??9ꎮ-??
