2005쓪5퓂뗚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡMay.,200519뻭뗚5웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ뮪ꆡ뚫ꆡ뺭ꆡ볃ꆡ맜ꆡ샭,늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝퇐뺿횣ꆡ욽,쇵ꆡ펢(컷쓏닆뺭듳톧,쯄뒨ꆡ돉뚼ꆡ610074)[햪튪]믣싊뒫뗝쫇맺볊뺭볃톧뗄뫋탄뿎쳢횮튻,냑믵뇒쫐뎡폫짌욷쫐뎡뷴쏜솪쾵웰살ꆣ컄헂퓚뛠뛷늼쪲뎬뗷샭싛뗄뿲볜쓚,듓믵뇒훷틥뗄뷇뛈럖컶믣싊뒫뗝뗄쾵쫽,늢뻟쳥첽쳖쇋믣싊뇤뚯뫍믵뇒헾닟뛔믣싊뒫뗝뗄펰쿬ꆣ[맘볼듊]믣싊뒫뗝;뎬뗷쒣탍;믵뇒훷틥;뒫뗝쾵쫽[훐춼럖샠뫅]F406171ꆡꆡꆡ[컄쿗뇪쪶싫]Aꆡꆡꆡ[컄헂뇠뫅]1007ꆪ5097(2005)05ꆪ0132ꆪ04StudyonIncompleteExchangeRatePass2throughZHENPing,LIUYing(SouthwesternUniversityofFinanceandEconomics,Chengdu610074,China)Abstract:Exchangepass-throughisoneofthecoreissuesininternationaleconomics,whichconnectsMoneyMarketingwithGoodsMarketing,Thispaperprovidesmonetaryexplanationforincompleteexchangeratepass2throughundertheframeworkofDornbuschovershootingmodel,:exchangepass2through;overshootingmodel;monetarism;pass2throughcoefficientꆡꆡ믣싊뗄늨뚯탔튪룟폚뫪맛뺭볃돥믷틔벰웤쯼쓚죚캣믺훐,믵뇒듳럹뇡횵횮뫳쎻폐돶쿖룟춨헍,랢짺뗄뫪맛뺭볃뇤솿,늢쟒믣싊뗄뇤뮯믡훰붥뒫뗝떽햹훐맺볒믣싊뒫뗝쾵쫽틑뺭돶쿖뷡릹탔뗄쿂붵맺쓚컯볛쮮욽짏ꆣ믣싊뒫뗝ퟮ돵쫇횸뷸뿚맺폫돶뿚(Goldfajn&Werlang,2000)ꆣBIS(2002,P192)맺횮볤뗄믣싊뇤뮯1%쪱,틽웰떱뗘믵뇒뇭쪾뗄뷸힢틢떽믣싊뇤뮯뛔뎤웚춨헍싊펰쿬뗄쿂붵ꆣ뿚볛룱닺짺뛠듳뗄뇤뮯(Goldberg&Knetter,BursteinꆢEichenbaum뫍Rebelo(2002)냑믣싊뛔1997)ꆣퟜ컯볛횸쫽뗄뒫뗝뗄쿂붵맩뷡캪,퓚컯볛횸쫽뗄뇠튻ꆢ늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝뗄쿖ힴ훆훐욷훊뷏닮뗄놾뗘짌욷좡듺쇋ퟮ탂뗄낺맳뗄뷸뿚폐탭뛠톧헟뛔랢듯맺볒뗄믣싊뒫뗝뷸탐쇋맣랺욷ꆣ헢랽쏦뗄퇐뺿뮹냼삨Choudhri뫍Hakura뗄퇐뺿,Krugman(1987)럖컶1980-1983쓪쏀맺(2001)ꆢBorensztein뫍DeGregorio(1999)뗈ꆣ뗄뷸뿚쫽뻝,랢쿖퓚믺킵뫍퓋쫤늿쏅,쏀풪짽횵뗄뷼쓪살튻룶쏷쿔뗄쿖쿳쫇,랢듯맺볒폫탂탋맺35%ꆫ40%쎻폐랴펳퓚뷸뿚볛룱뗄쿂붵짏ꆣKnetter볒뗄믣싊뒫뗝쾵쫽튻웰붵뗍ꆣTaylor(2000)쳡돶(1993)뗄퇐뺿횸돶,틔쒿뇪맺볒믵뇒볆볛뗄죕놾돶튻룶볲떥뗄쒣탍살뷢쫍믣싊뒫뗝뗄쿂붵,횸돶쿂붵뿚볛룱뗖쿻쇋48%뗄믣싊뇤뚯,쿠춬쟩뿶쿂뗄펢맺뗄풭틲쫇릫쮾뗍뗄뚨볛쓜솦쯹떼훂뗄뗍춨헍뮷뺳ꆣ뫍뗂맺뗄돶뿚볛룱캪36%ꆣMcCarthy(2000)뷨훺Gagnon뫍Ihrig(2000)횸돶Taylor뗄뷡싛뷶닉폃쿲솿ퟔ믘맩(VAR)쒣탍,랢쿖듳뛠쫽릤튵맺볒퓚쇋릤튵맺볒뗄쫽뻝,쯻쏇랢쿖듳솿뗄횤뻝뇭쏷믣싊1976쓪떽1998쓪훐,믣싊뛔쿻럑볛룱뗄뒫뗝쫇쫊뒫뗝폫춨헍뇤뚯탔뚼퓚쿂붵ꆣCampa뫍Goldberg훐뗄ꆣ(2001)퓚뷢쫍릤튵맺볒20쫀볍90쓪듺믣싊뒫뗝쾵뛔뗍쫕죫맺볒믣싊뒫뗝뗄퇐뺿쿠뛔뷏짙,죧쫽뗄쿂붵뗄풭틲쪱,죏캪헢룼뛠뗘쫇평짌욷ퟩ돉뗄Rana뫍Dowling(1985)쪹폃냼삨튻킩퇇훞랢햹훐뇤뮯뛸늻쫇뷏뗍뗄춨헍뮷뺳틽웰ꆣOtani뫍Shirota맺볒퓚쓚뗄13룶맺볒뗄쫽뻝,럖컶쇋믣싊뛔춨믵엲(2003)퇐뺿쇋믣싊뇤뮯뛔죕놾뷸뿚볛룱뗄펰쿬,죏헍뗄펰쿬ꆣ캪믣싊뒫뗝쿂붵뗄풭틲쫇뷸뿚솿퓶볓뫍맺볊춨믵엲20쫀볍90쓪듺,퓚쒫컷룧뷰죚캣믺폫퇇훞뷰헍싊뗄쿂붵ꆣ[쫕룥죕웚]ꆡ2005ꆪ03ꆪ26[ퟷ헟볲뷩]ꆡ횣ꆡ욽(1972ꆪ),쓐,쯄뒨죋,늩쪿짺,퇐뺿랽쿲:맺볊뷰죚;쇵ꆡ펢(1973ꆪ),얮,쯄뒨죋,늩쪿짺,퇐뺿랽쿲:맺볊쎳틗ꆣꆪ132ꆪ' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뛾ꆢ샭싛럖컶:퓚뛠뛷늼쪲ꆰ뎬뗷ꆱ뿲볜쓚릩쟳쿠뗈뗄ힴ첬,쒣탍볙짨춨믵엲헍싊평ퟜ탨쟳폫뛠뛷늼쪲1976쓪퓚ꆶ헾훎뺭볃톧ꆷ퓓횾짏랢뇭ퟜ릩룸뗄닮뛮뻶뚨:ꆶ풤웚폫믣싊뚯첬톧ꆷ튻컄,쳡돶쇋훸쏻뗄ꆰ뎬뗷ꆱP&=ꛐ(d-y)(5)샭싛,뇪횾ퟅ쿖듺맺볊뫪맛뺭볃톧뗄떮짺ꆣ뎬뗷쒣P&쫇맺쓚컯볛춨헍싊,ꛐ쫇볛룱뗄뗷헻쯙뛈,탍틔웤쏷컺뫍횱뷓뗄헾닟쿠맘탔,잿뗷뮺싽뗷헻뗄d뇭쪾ퟜ탨쟳뗄뛔쫽횵ꆣ짌욷쫐뎡폫룟뛈믮풾뗄닺쫐뎡뗄쿠뮥ퟷ폃,캪첽ퟜ탨쟳몯쫽평쿂쪽룸돶:쳖믣싊샭싛뗄쿖듺쮼쿫쳡릩쇋뫋탄뗄튪쯘ꆣd=ꛂ+ꛁ(s-p+p3)+ꛕy-ꛋr(6)뎬뗷샭싛폃샭탔풤웚뛔쏉듺뛻ꆪ뢥삳쏷쒣탍ퟶ웤훐,ꛂ쫇췢짺횧돶뇤솿;(s-p+p3)뇭쪾쪵돶쇋룄뷸,냼몬쇋닺돶볛룱뛸늻쫇닆뢻뗄뚯첬뇤뮯,볊믣싊,ꛁ>0;ꛕ>0,ퟜ탨쟳폫맺쓚쫕죫헽쿠맘;ꛋ쪹뫳헟쓜릻볌탸뒦폚쪵볊헾닟퇐뺿뗄잰퇘ꆣ뎬뗷쒣>0,ퟜ탨쟳폫맺쓚쏻틥샻싊뢺쿠맘ꆣ탍쓜릻럖컶믵뇒헾닟죧뫎펰쿬믣싊,횸돶믵뇒헾닟붫(6)쪽듺죫(5)쪽,뗃떽:뗄늻컈뚨믡떼훂믣싊틔룼듳뗄럹뛈뇤뮯,튲캪뷸튻P&=ꛐ[ꛂ+ꛁ(s-p+p3)+(ꛕ-1)y-ꛋr\]늽뗘쮼뾼맺볊믵뇒헾닟쳡릩쇋뿲볜ꆣ(7)11뎬뗷쒣탍볲쫶붫(1ꆯ)쪽듺죫(7)쪽:믵뇒훷틥죏캪,믣싊쫇튻훖믵뇒틔쇭튻훖믵뇒뇭쪾뗄볛룱,믣싊뗄뇤뚯쓜릻평믵뇒듦솿뗄릩쟳맘P&=ꛐ[ꛂ+ꛁ(s-p+p3)+(ꛕꛋ-1)y-ꛒ쾵살럖컶,믵뇒릩쟳쫇믣싊뻶뚨뗄훘튪틲쯘ꆣ뛠뛷(p-m+ꛇy)\](8)늼쪲뗄햳탔볛룱믵뇒쒣탍,벴뎬뗷쒣탍퓚짌욷쫐뎡뒦폚뻹뫢ힴ첬쪱,ퟜ탨쟳뗈폚ퟜ릩,쫇믵뇒훷틥뗄쿖듺믣싊샭싛,싛횤쇋짌욷쫐뎡폫닺쫐뎡뗷룸틢캶ퟅ춨믵엲헍캪0,쇮P&=0,뿉틔뷢돶GG쿟헻쯙뛈뗄늻춬믡떼훂믣싊퓚뛌웚쓚욫샫릺싲솦욽볛뗄킱싊:,떫뎤웚쓚릺싲솦욽볛죔좻돉솢ꆣdpꛁ=볙뚨뒫춳뗄믵뇒탨쟳몯쫽돉솢dsꛁ+ꛋ/ꛒ(9):평폚짌욷쫐뎡뻹뫢ힴ첬뗄톱싊듳폚0,쯹틔GGm-p=ꛇy-ꛒr(1)쿟쿲짏쟣킱ꆣ퓚GG쿟뗄ퟳ뇟,ퟜ릩룸뎬맽ퟜ탨쟳;짔ퟷ뇤뮻1,뗃:r=ꛒ(p-m+ꛇy)(1ꆯ)퓚GG쿟뗄폒뇟,퓲듦퓚ퟅ짌욷뗄뎬뛮탨쟳ꆣm쫇맺쓚믵뇒듦솿뗄뛔쫽횵,p쫇맺쓚컯볛쮮캪쇋럖컶믵뇒쫐뎡MM뗄뻹뫢ힴ첬,붫(2)욽뗄뛔쫽횵쪽폫(4)쪽뷡뫏:,y쫇맺쓚쪵볊닺돶뗄뛔쫽횵,r쫇맺쓚쏻틥샻싊ꆣ샻싊쾵쫽ꛒ>0,샻싊쮮욽쿂붵뇭쪾돖폐13s=s-ꛈ(r-r)(10)믵뇒뗄믺믡돉놾붵뗍,쪵볊믵뇒탨쟳붫퓶볓ꆣ닺돶쾵쫽ꛇ>0,믵뇒탨쟳폫닺돶춬랽쿲뇤뮯ꆣ붫(1ꆯ)듺죫짏쪽:볙짨맺쓚췢햮좯뿉틔췪좫쳦듺,룹뻝컞뗖늹샻1s=s-ꛒꛈ(p-m+ꛇy-ꛒ3r)(11)싊욽볛UIP:뿉틔뷢돶믵뇒쫐뎡뻹뫢쿟MM뗄킱싊:Es&=3r-r(2)dp=2ꛒꛈ(12)짏쪽훐ds,Es&뇭쪾놾맺믵뇒뗄풤웚뇡횵싊,춬쪱췢맺샻싊3r만뚨늻뇤ꆣ틲캪킱싊캪뢺,쯹틔MM쿟쿲쿂쟣킱ꆣ햳탔볛룱쒣탍볙짨뎤웚뻹뫢믣싊평릺싲솦욽볛PPP뻶뚨:s=p-p3(3)s쫇뎤웚믣싊(놾뇒/췢뇒)뗄뛔쫽횵,p쫇뎤웚맺쓚컯볛쮮욽뗄뛔쫽횵,p3쫇뎤웚췢맺컯볛뗄뛔쫽횵ꆣ캪쇋쏨쫶쪵볊믣싊폫릺싲솦욽볛뗄닮틬,뛠뛷늼쪲쒣탍볙뚨믣싊뗄풤웚뇤뚯평믘맩탔풤웚랽돌뻶뚨:Es&=-ꛈ(s-s)(4)춼1ꆡ믹놾쒣탍짏쪽뇭쏷,펰쿬놾뇒뗄풤웚뇡횵싊뗄틲쯘평뗷헻쯙뛈닎쫽ꛈ(ꛈ>0),떱잰믣싊쮮욽s폫뎤웚뻹뫢21믣싊뒫뗝쾵쫽믣싊뗄s닮뛮뻶뚨ꆣ믣싊뒫뗝럖컶믣싊뇤뚯뛔맺쓚컯볛뗄펰쿬,뎬퓚춼1훐,짌욷쫐뎡뗄뻹뫢쿟GG뇭쪾짌욷뗄뗷쒣탍훐짌욷쫐뎡뻹뫢쿟GG캪럖컶맺쓚짌욷볛룱ꆪ133ꆪ' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
쫜믣싊뗄펰쿬돌뛈쳡릩쇋틀뻝,룹뻝(9)쪽,믣싊욽볛뻶뚨뗄뻹뫢ힴ첬,떫맺쓚볛룱돊햳탔,뛌웚쓚뇤뚯뗄ꛁ늢늻룄뇤,쯹틔믣싊쮮욽횱뷓평A뗣쳸풾떽B뗣,ꛁ+ꛋ/ꛒ뒫뗝떽맺쓚컯볛짏,벴믣싊뒫뗝쾵쫽뛌웚뻹뫢믣싊S2뎬맽쇋뎤웚쮮욽S,믣싊ꆰ뎬뗷ꆱ캪ꛁꛁ랢짺ꆣ+ꛋ/ꛒꆣ뿉틔뾴돶,뒫뗝쾵쫽쫇듳폚0뛸킡폚1뗄헽쫽ꆣ떫B뗣튲늻믡뎤뻃늻뇤,쫗쿈,떱닺돶쮮욽만횱맛뗘럖컶뚨쪱,믵뇒삩헅믡떼훂샻싊붵뗍,룹뻝(6)쪽,횧,놾뇒뇡횵,벴믣싊s짏짽,떼훂뛔놾맺돶뿚짌욷뗄탨쟳퓶볓,뇡횵듸살뗄뺺헹탔폅돶믡퓶볓ꆣ쇭췢,놾뇒믣싊쿠뛔폚릺싲솦욽볛놻뗍쫆횻쓜평맺쓚컯볛뗄짏헇쯹뗖쿻ꆣ평믵뇒탨쟳랽돌맀,맺쓚짌욷폫맺췢짌욷쿠뛔룼뇣틋,쫀뷧탨쟳믡,컯볛짏헇쳡룟쇋믵뇒탨쟳,늢듙쪹샻싊짏짽,늢뷸랢짺폐샻폚놾맺짌욷뗄쳦듺킧펦ꆣ헢솽룶틲쯘믡췆튻늽붵뗍쇋짌욷탨쟳ꆣ헢틢캶ퟅ캪쇋놣돖ퟜ탨쟳폫뚯B뗣쿲뎤웚뻹뫢C뗣틆뚯ꆣퟜ릩룸욽뫢,믵뇒뇡횵뗄럹뛈튪뎬맽컯볛짏헇뗄럹뛈,벴믣싊뇤뚯뒫뗝떽컯볛뇤뚯뗄돌뛈쫇늻췪좫뗄ꆣ퓙살뾴쿠맘틲쯘뛔뒫뗝쾵쫽뗄펰쿬,떱ꛋ=0믲ꛒ=ꇞ쪱,뒫뗝쾵쫽캪1ꆣ떱ꛒ=0믲ꛋ=ꇞ쪱,뒫뗝쾵쫽캪0ꆣ뻟쳥뗘쮵,떱맺쓚쏻틥샻싊뛔짌욷ퟜ탨쟳췪좫늻웰ퟷ폃쪱,믣싊뒫뗝쫇췪좫뗄,떫헢훖쟩뿶늻쿖쪵ꆣ믣싊췪좫뒫뗝뗄쇭튻훖쟩뿶쫇믵뇒탨쟳뗄샻싊떯탔컞쟮듳,샻싊뗄쟡캢쿂붵믡떼훂믵뇒탨쟳뇤뗃컞쿞듳,벴뺭볃뒦폚춨뎣쯹쮵뗄쇷뚯탔쿝?횮훐ꆣ듋쪱,맺쓚샻싊쿠뛔컈뚨,뛸쟒3rퟷ캪췢짺춼2ꆡ믣싊뎬뗷뗄뚯첬톧뇤솿늻뇤,룹뻝(2)쪽,믣싊뗄풤웚뇡횵싊캪0,ꆡꆡ뛠뛷늼쪲뗄헢욪컄헂돶쿖퓚쫀뷧듓만뚨믣싊쿲퓲평릺싲솦욽볛뻶뚨뗄뎤웚뻹뫢믣싊웰ퟷ폃,벴믣뢡뚯믣싊뇤뗄맽돌훐,폫뢥샯뗂싼(1953)뛔뢡싊뒫뗝떽컯볛쮮욽뗄돌뛈쫇췪좫뗄ꆣ뚯믣싊뗄샭쿫쏨쫶쿠랴,믣싊뇤뚯늢쎻폐욽컈뗘랴쇭튻랽쏦,떱샻싊뇤뚯뛔믵뇒탨쟳늻웰ퟷ폃쪱,펳돶맺볊춨헍뗄닮틬ꆣ떱쿻럑ꆢ헦쪵샻싊믲뺭뎣쿮믣싊뒫뗝쾵쫽캪0,춬퇹헢훖쟩뿶쫇늻쿖쪵뗄ꆣ떱쒿뗈뫪맛뺭볃뇤솿뗄늨뚯뫜킡믲폫믹뒡돥믷뗄늨뚯짌욷ퟜ탨쟳뛔샻싊컞쿞쏴룐쪱,믣싊뒫뗝쾵쫽캪0ꆣ쿠떱쪱,믣싊뗄늨뚯좴럇뎣듳ꆣ퓚헢훖틢틥짏,믣퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,샻싊쿂붵,놾뇒뇡횵,맺췢탨쟳짏싊폫헦쪵뺭볃쿠룴샫(Duarte&Stockman,2001)ꆣ짽,떫맺쓚탨쟳뇤뚯컞쿞듳,믣싊뇤뚯뛔컯볛늻닺춳볆쫽뻝뇭쏷,쪵볊믣싊늨뚯쫇몬폐떥캻룹뗄짺ퟷ폃ꆣ쯦믺맽돌,폫퓊탭좷뚨탔쟷쫆듦퓚뗄뎤웚릺싲솦욽ퟛ맛뎬뗷쒣탍,믣싊뒫뗝캪0믲1뗄솽훖벫뛋볛쿠놳ꆣDuarte뫍Stcokman(2001)잿뗷믣싊뗄늨쟩탎죔좻맽폚돩쿳,퓚쿖쪵훐랢짺뗄뿉쓜탔뫜킡,뚯탔닺짺폚늻췪좫뗄맺볊뷰죚쫐뎡,틔벰뛔컞뗖늹떫헢캪럖컶쪵볊뗄믣싊뒫뗝쳡릩쇋뇈뷏퇐뺿뗄돟뛈ꆣ샻싊욽볛뗄쯦믺욫샫ꆣJeanne뫍Rose(2000)럖춬쪱,믵뇒탨쟳뗄샻싊떯탔컞쟮듳쪹뒫뗝쾵쫽캪1,컶,퓚믣싊뗄믵뇒쒣탍훐췢믣쫐뎡짏뗄퓫짹붻틗헟짌욷탨쟳뗄샻싊떯탔컞쟮듳쪹뒫뗝쾵쫽캪0,헢튲믡닺짺룟뗄믣싊늨뚯탔ꆣDevereux뫍Engel(2002)듓튻룶닠쏦랴펳돶,쿠뛔폚뺭볃쪵쳥쏦뛸퇔,믵뇒뷸튻늽횸돶,떱뗘믵뇒뚨볛ꆢ맺볊짌욷럖쿺뗄틬훊틲쯘퓚뺭볃뗷헻맽돌훐뗄훘튪ퟷ폃ꆣ헢헽펡횤쇋뢥탔뫍췢믣쫐뎡짏뗄퓫짹붻틗헟헢죽룶틲쯘쓜릻닺짺샯뗂싼(1969)뗄쏻퇔:믵뇒훘튪,횻폐믵뇒훘튪ꆣ폫믹뒡뗄믵뇒돥믷췪좫늻돉뇈샽뗄믣싊룟욵늨뚯탔ꆣ31믣싊늨뚯폫믣싊뒫뗝믣싊뒫뗝폫믣싊늨뚯횮볤쿠뮥펰쿬,믣싊늨뚯믵뇒훷틥죏캪,퓚뛌웚ꆢ뚯첬뗄쪧뫢샭싛럖컶뻶뚨릫쮾뗄볆볛믵뇒톡퓱,틲뛸뻶뚨쇋ퟜ뗄믣싊뒫훐,믵뇒틲쯘퓚뗷헻맽돌훐럇뎣훘튪,떫떱뗷헻췪뗝돌뛈ꆣ랴맽살,믣싊뒫뗝뗄돌뛈펰쿬믣싊늨뚯폫돉쪱,믵뇒뻍쫇쏦즴,믵뇒늻쓜펰쿬쪵볊뺭볃뇤솿ꆣ뺭볃뷡릹뗄맘쾵,폖뻶뚨쇋믣싊뗄늨뚯탔ꆣDev2듓뎤웚살뾴,떱맺쓚믵뇒릩룸퓶볓쪱,컯볛쮮욽믡ereuxꆢEngel뫍Storgaard(2003)퓚뾪럅뫪맛뺭볃짏헇춬퇹뗄럹뛈ꆣ릺싲솦욽볛퓚뎤웚쓚돉솢,쯹틔뿲볜쿂쳡돶튻룶쓚짺뒫뗝쒣탍,믣싊뫍뒫뗝쫇춬쪱놾뇒믣싊믡뇡횵춬퇹뗄럹뛈ꆣ뻶뚨뗄늢쿠뮥펰쿬ꆣ뒫뗝뗄쓚짺탔벫듳뗘룄뇤쇋뺭춼2럖컶쇋뺭볃뗷헻뗄뛌웚맽돌,떱췢짺뇤솿볃뷡릹닎쫽폫믣싊늨뚯뗄맘쾵,헢튲쫇슬뾨쮹엺에믵뇒릩룸퓶볓쪱,믵뇒쫐뎡쿟M1M1솢벴폒틆떽뗄튻룶샽ퟓ,벴뺭볃헾닟뗄룄뇤믡떼훂뻹뫢뻶닟풭M2M2,뎤웚쓚뺭볃뻹뫢붫듓A뗣(S1,P1)틆뚯떽퓲뗄룄뇤ꆣ뷡싛쫇믣싊뒫뗝폫믵뇒헾닟뗄쿠뛔컈뚨C뗣(S,P)ꆣ평폚믵뇒쫐뎡폫짌욷쫐뎡뗷헻쯙뛈듦탔쿠맘,믵뇒퓶뎤늨뚯뷏킡뗄맺볒,믣싊뒫뗝돌뛈퓚ퟅ뫜듳뗄닮틬,믵뇒쫐뎡ퟜ쫇뒦폚평컞뗖늹샻싊쿠뛔뷏뗍;뛸믵뇒퓶뎤늨뚯뷏듳뗄맺볒믡랢짺쿠뛔ꆪ134ꆪ' 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
룼룟뗄뒫뗝돌뛈ꆣ늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝뛔탭뛠컊쳢뗄럖컶뚼폐틢틥,41믵뇒헾닟폫믣싊뒫뗝죧풤닢쪵볊믣싊뗄늨뚯,첽쳖ퟮ폅믵뇒헾닟,뮹쓜믵뇒헾닟뗄늻컈뚨믡떼훂믣싊닺짺룼듳뗄늨뚯,릻듙뷸뛔뺭볃돥믷뗄맺볊뒫뗝틔벰믵뇒헾닟맺볊킭뛠뛷늼쪲횸돶,뎬뗷늢늻튻뚨쫇듓쫐뎡짏뗄뛌쫓믲뗷쫕틦뗄샭뷢(Obstfeld,2002)ꆣ퓚탂뾪럅뫪맛뺭듓훚탐캪훐닺짺ꆣ햳탔볛룱쒣탍뗃돶뗄튻룶훘튪뷡볃쒣탍훐,믵뇒헾닟뗄뢣샻킧맻쯦ퟅ믣싊뒫뗝돌뛈싛뻍쫇,믣싊쮮욽뛔PPP뗄욫샫틔벰믣싊뗄룟뛈늨뗄늻춬뛸폐뷏듳쟸뇰(Betts&Devereux,2000;뚯탔뚼쓜릻평샭탔뗄춶믺쯹뷢쫍,늢늻튻뚨쫇럇샭Tille,2000)ꆣ뛔늻췪좫믣싊뒫뗝킧펦뗄좫쏦럖컶뮹탔뗄맺췢춶믺뗄뷡맻ꆣ탨튪컒쏇ퟶ뷸튻늽뗄퇐뺿ꆣ맺쓚볛룱폫믣싊뇤뮯횮볤늢늻듦퓚튻튻뛔펦맘[닎뾼컄쿗]쾵,믣싊뒫뗝돌뛈,쳘뇰쫇퓚뛌웚쓚,뻍쫇짨볆믵\[1\]\[M\].Mac2mil뇒헾닟쪱뇘탫뾼싇뗄튻룶럇뎣훘튪뗄뇤솿ꆣ믣싊뒫lanPress,1992.뗝돌뛈뛔랴춨헍뗄믵뇒헾닟짨볆폐훘튪뗄틢틥,늢\[2\]JeffryeFrankel,DavidParsley,쟒믡펰쿬쎳틗쇷솿뛔믣싊돥돶ퟶ돶죧뫎랴펦ꆣퟮ뷼PassthroughAroundtheWorld:ANewImportforDeveloping뗄쪵횤퇐뺿튲뇭쏷,믣싊뒫뗝ퟔ짭쓜릻쓚짺뗘평믵Countries?\[EB/OL\].htpt:// 1994-2006 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
