ꆡ뗚38뻭뗚7웚췁ꆡ쒾ꆡ릤ꆡ돌ꆡ톧ꆡ놨Vol138ꆡNo17ꆡ2005쓪7퓂CHINACIVILENGINEERINGJOURNALJulyꆡ2005힡랿탨쟳뗄쫕죫떯탔:쒣탍ꆢ맀볆폫풤닢횣쮼웫ꆡ쇵뫩폱(쟥뮪듳톧,놱뺩100084)햪튪:힡랿탨쟳뗄쫕죫떯탔쫇쏨쫶뻓쏱힡랿탨쟳쳘헷뗄훘튪횸뇪ꆣ놾컄듓맀볆쫕죫떯탔쯹탨뗄룷룶튪쯘죫쫖,짮죫첽쳖쇋쫕죫떯탔뗄샭싛몬틥뫍맀볆랽램ꆣ퓚듋믹뒡짏,샻폃캢맛뷘쏦쫽뻝살뿋럾뫪맛쫽뻝뗄좱쿝,뛔퇹놾ퟜ쳥ꆢ늻춬쫕죫볒춥뫍늻춬쓪쇤볒춥뗄쫕죫떯탔럖뇰뷸탐쇋맀볆ꆣ쪵횤럖컶뗄뷡맻뇭쏷,놱뺩쫐릺랿볒춥뗄쫕죫떯탔풼캪,룃횵뇈컷랽랢듯맺볒튪뗍ꆣ헢쮵쏷힡랿죔욫폚쿻럑욷,뻓쏱힡랿춶뗄틢쪶뷏캪떭늴ꆣ뛔늻춬쫕죫뫍늻춬쓪쇤볒춥뗄럖ퟩ맀볆뇭쏷,쯦ퟅ쫕죫뫍쓪쇤뗄퓶뎤,쫕죫떯탔뻹돊쿖쿈짽뫳붵뗄쟷쫆ꆣ쫕죫떯탔튲놻폃폚뛔튻룶돇쫐뗄힡랿탨쟳퓶뎤뷸탐풤닢ꆣ헢킩뚨솿뷡싛뛔폚럖컶힡랿쫐뎡뷡릹뫍풤닢힡랿탨쟳뗄뇤뮯,폐훘튪뗄샭싛뫍쪵볹틢틥ꆣ맘볼듊:힡랿탨쟳;쫕죫떯탔;볒춥쫕죫;볒춥짺쏼훜웚훐춼럖샠뫅:F29313ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:A컄헂뇠뫅:10002131X(2005)0720122205INCOMEELASTICITYOFHOUSINGDEMANDINCHINA:MODEL,ESTIMATIONANDFORECASTZhengSiqiꆡLiuHongyu(TsinghuaUniversity,Beijing100084,China)Abstract:,,,:housingdemand;incomeelasticity;householdincome;householdlifecycle늻춬쳘헷(샽죧늻춬쫕죫뫍늻춬쓪쇤)뗄뻓쏱볒춥뗄틽ꆡꆡ퇔힡랿탨쟳쫕죫떯탔,럖컶힡랿쿻럑뛔볒춥쫕죫뗄쏴룐돌뛈벰웤퓚늻춬죋좺횮볤뗄닮틬;뗚죽,뿉틔폃폚풤쯦ퟅ컒맺돇헲힡랿훆뛈룄룯뗄짮죫,돇헲힡랿뗄닢쯦ퟅ뻓쏱볒춥쫕죫쮮욽뗄쳡룟,힡랿쿻럑뗄퓶뎤쯙짺닺뫍쿻럑튲훰붥듓ꆰ풴떼쿲ꆱ캪ꆰ쫐뎡떼쿲ꆱ,뛈ꆣ헾뢮뫍힡랿릩룸헟뚼웈쟐탨튪돤럖쇋뷢뻓쏱볒춥뗄힡평폚쒿잰컒맺맺쏱뺭볃춳볆훐ꆰ힡랿쿻럑ꆱ헢튻랿쿻럑쳘헷ꆣ힡랿탨쟳뗄쫕죫떯탔쫇뛈솿뻓쏱볒춥힡춳볆횸뇪뗄몬틥늻쏷좷,쟒쫽뻝훊솿뷏닮,웹뷱짐캴랿쿻럑쳘헷뗄훘튪횸뇪,쯼랴펳쇋뻓쏱볒춥힡랿탨쟳랢쿖맘폚힡랿탨쟳쫕죫떯탔뗄쳘탔뫍볆쯣랽램뗄짮죫뛔쫕죫뇤뮯뗄쏴룐돌뛈ꆣ닢쯣힡랿탨쟳뗄쫕죫떯탔폐퇐뺿돉맻ꆣ늿럖톧헟샻폃뫪맛쫽뻝맀볆뗄쫕죫떯탔튲샻폚틔쿂컊쳢뗄럖컶:뗚튻,뿉틔뚨솿뾼달뻓쏱볒춥평폚쫽뻝좱쿝뛸듦퓚ퟅ뷏듳뗄욫닮[1]ꆣ놾컄쫔춼퓚뷸쫕죫폫힡랿쿻럑쮮욽횮볤뗄맘쾵,늢뻝듋에뛏쒿잰컒탐힡랿탨쟳쫕죫떯탔뗄샭싛럖컶뗄믹뒡짏,뷡뫏힡랿맺힡랿쿻럑뗄랢햹뷗뛎;뗚뛾,뿉틔춨맽맀볆뫍뇈뷏쿻럑탐캪뗷닩쯹믱뗃뗄캢맛쫽뻝,듓쪵횤럖컶뗄뷇쫕룥죕웚뛈,뛔힡랿탨쟳쫕죫떯탔뷸탐닢쯣,늢럖컶쯹뗃볆쯣:2003205208맺볒ퟔ좻뿆톧믹뷰훘뗣쿮쒿ꆰ랿뗘닺튵폫짧믡뺭볃킭뗷랢햹퇐뺿ꆱ뷡맻뗄뺭볃몬틥,틔듋냑컕떱잰뻓쏱볒춥뗄힡랿쿻럑(79930500)훺쳘헷ꆣ
ꆡ뗚38뻭ꆡ뗚7웚횣쮼웫뗈ꆤ힡랿탨쟳뗄쫕죫떯탔:쒣탍ꆢ맀볆폫풤닢ꆤ321ꆤ풱뗄쫕죫횮뫍,쟒룃쫕죫캪뿉횧엤쫕죫,벴릤탔쫕1ꆡ힡랿탨쟳쫕죫떯탔뗄샭싛럖컶죫ꆢ닆닺탔쫕죫뫍틆탔쫕죫횮뫍,퓙복좥룶죋쯹뗃쮰ꆣ111ꆡ힡랿탨쟳쫕죫떯탔뗄몬틥(3)힡랿볛룱(Ph)뫍웤쯼짌욷볛룱(Px)힡랿탨쟳쫕죫떯탔(틔쿂볲돆ꆰ쫕죫떯탔ꆱ)뫜힡랿탨쟳몯쫽훐돽쇋볒춥쫕죫횮췢,뮹냼삨힡랿뫃뗘뛈솿쇋쫕죫뇤뮯뛔힡랿탨쟳뗄펰쿬,쯼놻뚨틥캪볛룱(Ph)뫍웤쯼짌욷볛룱(Px)ꆣ떫헢샯뗄힡랿볛힡랿탨쟳뗄냙럖뇈뇤뮯폫볒춥쫕죫뗄냙럖뇈뇤뮯뗄뇈룱늢럇춨뎣틢틥짏뗄ꆰ랿볛ꆱ(쎿쳗힡랿떥캻쏦믽뗄횵,벴:볛룱),뛸쫇튻룶떥캻뗄힡랿럾컱뗄볛룱,춨뎣폃믹ꚤH폚춬훊힡랿뗄힡랿볛룱횸쫽뇭쪾ꆣ춬튻뗘쟸힡랿럾컱ꛇH=ꚤ(1)Y뗄떥볛쫇쿠춬뗄,늻춬힡랿ퟜ볛횮볤뗄닮틬(믲헟떥Y캻쏦믽볛룱횮볤뗄닮틬)랴펳뗄쫇힡랿쿻럑솿뗄늻춬ꆡꆡ웤훐H캪힡랿쿻럑솿,Y캪볒춥쫕죫,ꛇ캪쫕(냼삨쏦믽ꆢ뗘뛎뫍뮷뺳뗄닮뇰)ꆣ춬퇹,웤쯼짌욷볛죫떯탔ꆣ떱탨쟳뗄쫕죫떯탔킡폚1쪱,컒쏇돆횮캪좱룱쫇횸웤쯼짌욷뗄볛룱횸쫽ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵,뛔폚춬튻쪱랦떯탔,랴횮캪뻟폐떯탔ꆣ평폚쒿잰컒맺힡랿ퟢ쇞쫐웚뫍춬튻돇쫐훐뗄퇹놾뗣,쯼쏇뗄힡랿볛룱뫍웤쯼짌뎡짐늻랢듯,틲듋놾컄뷶쳖싛릺랿볒춥뗄쫕죫떯탔ꆣ욷볛룱쫇튻훂뗄ꆣ헢쪱쒣탍(3)뿉틔뷸탐볲뮯캪쒣112ꆡ맘볼뗄샭싛컊쳢탍(4),뷶폃힡랿횧돶뗄뛔쫽횵뛔볒춥쫕죫뗄뛔쫽횵짨힡랿탨쟳몯쫽쫇톧헟웕뇩쪹폃뗄뛔쫽쿟탔몯쫽뷸탐믘맩,헢퇹ퟶ횻펰쿬뎣쫽쿮,늻믡펰쿬쫕죫떯탔탎쪽[2],벴뗄맀볆ꆣln(H)=ꛂ0+ꛂ1ln(Y)+ꛂ2ln(Ph)+ꛂ3ln(Px)+u(2)ln(Eh)=ꛂ0+ꛂ1ln(Y)+u(4)ꆡꆡ웤훐:ꛂ1+ꛂ2+ꛂ3=0,u캪컳닮쿮ꆣꆡꆡ웤훐,u캪컳닮쿮ꆣ평폚dHYdlnH113ꆡ뫪맛쫽뻝뗄좱쿝,쯹틔ꛂdYH=dlnY1뫍ꛂ2뻍럖뇰뛔펦ꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ훐뗄ꆰ돇헲뻓쏱힡랿쿻럑횧돶ꆱ힡랿탨쟳뗄쫕죫떯탔(ꛇ)뫍볛룱떯탔(ꛅ)ꆣ맀볆쫕튻쿮(평맺볒춳볆뻖돇뗷뛓뾪햹뗄돇헲뻓쏱볒춥쫕횧죫떯탔늢늻뢴퓓,맘볼뗄샭싛컊쳢퓚폚몯쫽훐뗄벸룶뗷닩믱뗃)폫볆쯣쫕죫떯탔쪱쯹탨튪뗄힡랿쿻럑솿폐뇤솿:H(힡랿쿻럑솿)ꆢY(볒춥쫕죫)ꆢ힡랿볛룱뫜듳닮뇰ꆣ평폚컒맺뎤웚쪵탐뢣샻럖랿훆뛈,돇헲뻓(Ph)뫍웤쯼짌욷볛룱(Px)뗄ힼ좷뷧뚨ꆣ쏱힡랿쿻럑횧돶돉럖뢴퓓,냼삨ퟔ폐힡랿탩쓢럾컱횧(1)힡랿쿻럑솿(H)돶뫍ퟢ폃짺믮폃랿뗄랿ퟢ횧돶ꆣퟔ폐힡랿탩쓢럾컱횧힡랿쿻럑솿(H)뗄퇏룱뚨틥쫇[2]:튻뮧볒춥퓚돶쫇폃랿컝퓬볛돋틔튻룶만뚨뗄헛뻉싊(4%)뗃돶튻룶떥캻쪱볤(춨뎣캪퓂믲쓪)쓚쯹쿻뫄뗄힡랿럾컱뗄,폫쫐뎡랿ퟢ쎻폐죎뫎솪쾵;뎤웚뗄뗍랿ퟢ헾닟떼(HousingService)뗄쫽솿ꆣ쯹캽힡랿럾컱,쫇횸힡랿훂랿ퟢ컞램랴펳쫐뎡쮮욽;냫뗘쿂뗄ퟢ쇞쫐뎡쫽뻝폖캪볒춥쯹쳡릩뇓뮤ꆢ택쾢ꆢ폩샖뫍짺믮뿕볤뗄럾컱,컞램춳볆ꆣ틔짏헢킩풭틲뻹떼훂쇋ꆰ돇헲뻓쏱힡랿쿻쯼ퟛ뫏쇋힡랿쏦믽ꆢ힡랿훊솿뫍짧쟸뮷뺳뗈뛠훖틲럑횧돶ꆱ뗄춳볆횵컞램랴펳뻓쏱헦쪵뗄힡랿쿻럑쯘ꆣ평폚힡랿럾컱뗄쫽솿벴힡랿쿻럑솿(H)뷏쓑뛈솿[3]ꆣ듋췢,룃춳볆횸뇪튲컞램쟸럖ퟢ랿헟뫍릺랿솿,틲듋뎣붫웤뮻캪떥캻쪱볤뗄힡랿횧돶Eh=Phꆤ헟ꆣ틲듋죧맻닉폃헢튻춳볆횸뇪뗄쫽뻝살맀볆쫕죫떯H(Ph캪떥캻힡랿럾컱뗄볛룱),춨맽쿟탔뇤뮻뿉틔탔,붫쓑틔뗃떽뿉뾿뫍튻훂뗄맀볆횵ꆣ뗃떽:EhYln=ꛂP0+ꛂPh2ꆡ힡랿탨쟳쫕죫떯탔뗄쪵횤퇐뺿1lnln+u(3)xP+(1+ꛂ2)xPx힡랿횧돶뿉틔폃쫐뎡ퟢ뷰살뇭쪾ꆣ뛔폚ퟔ폐힡211ꆡ퇹놾쫽뻝랿,맺볊춨탐뗄ퟶ램쫇닉폃ꆰ뗈킧ퟢ뷰ꆱ,벴폫룃힡캪쇋뿋럾뫪맛쫽뻝쯹듦퓚뗄좱쿝,놾퇐뺿닉폃뷘랿뗘뛎뫍훊솿뚼샠쯆뗄돶ퟢ힡랿뗄쫐뎡ퟢ뷰,튲벴펵쏦룶쳥쫽뻝살맀볆힡랿탨쟳쫕죫떯탔ꆣ헢킩쫽뻝살풴폐힡랿뗄떥캻쪱볤뗄돉놾ꆣ폚2000쓪놾뿎쳢ퟩ뛔놱뺩쫐릺랿볒춥쯹뷸탐뗄힡랿(2)볒춥쫕죫(Y)쿻럑탐캪뗷닩,뗷닩랶캧캪놱뺩쫐떱쓪릺싲짌욷힡랿퓚볆쯣볒춥쫕죫쪱탨튪힢틢,뇘탫쫇볒춥쯹폐돉(냼삨뺭볃쫊폃랿)뗄볒춥,닉폃랢럅뗷닩컊뻭뗄탎
ꆤꆡꆡ4ꆡ21ꆤꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ췁ꆡ쒾ꆡ릤ꆡ돌ꆡ톧ꆡ놨2005쓪쪽,뗷닩쓚죝냼삨뮧훷쓪쇤ꆢ볒춥쫕죫ꆢ힡랿ퟜ볛뗈폃쯼살쪵쿖쫦쫊뗄짺믮ꆢ쿔쪾뗘캻뫍닆뢻틔벰믱좡춶탅쾢,ퟮ훕믱뗃폐킧퇹놾릲볆9781룶ꆣ쫕틦,헢쫇웤쫕죫떯탔듳폚1뗄훘튪풭틲ꆣ놱뺩쫐놾퇐뺿쯹샻폃뗄쫽뻝쫇캢맛룶쳥쫽뻝,쟒쫴폚퇹릺랿볒춥릺랿뗄훷튪쒿뗄뮹쫇폃폚힡랿쿻럑,붫릺싲놾쫽뻝캻폚춬튻돇쫐뗄쟩뿶ꆣ틲듋컒쏇샻폃쒣탍(4)힡랿ퟷ캪춶뗄룅쓮뮹뫜떭늴,힡랿죔쫇튻훖싺ퟣ짺뷸탐쫕죫떯탔뗄맀볆ꆣ평폚힡랿ퟢ쇞쫐뎡뮹뫜늻랢믮믹놾탨쟳뗄쿻럑욷ꆣ듓풤닢뗄뷇뛈살뾴,떱웤쯼쳵듯,쯹틔컞램믱뗃ퟔ폐힡랿뗄ꆰ뗈킧ퟢ뷰ꆱꆣ퓚헢샯볾놣돖늻뇤쪱,놱뺩쫐릺랿볒춥뗄뿉횧엤쫕죫퓶뎤컒쏇폃힡랿볛횵(V)듺쳦힡랿횧돶(펵폐힡랿뗄떥1%쪱,힡랿ퟜ탨쟳듳풼믡퓶뎤0186%ꆣ평듋뿉틔췆캻쪱볤뗄돉놾춨뎣캪힡랿볛횵뗄만뚨냙럖뇈,평폚닉뛏,퓚쒿잰뷗뛎떣탄춶탔릺랿뇈샽짏짽,믡떼훂랿폃뛔쫽쒣탍뷸탐맀볆,쯹틔횻믡뛔뎣쫽쿮닺짺펰쿬,뗘닺엝쒭[6],쫇좱랦룹뻝뗄ꆣ뛸늻믡룄뇤떯탔뗄맀볆횵),죧쪽(5)쯹쪾:213ꆡ볒춥쫕죫폫힡랿탨쟳쫕죫떯탔ln(V)=ꛂ0+ꛂ1ln(Y)+u(5)(1)춳볆뷡맻ꆡꆡ웤훐:u캪컳닮쿮ꆣ내볒춥쫕죫룟뗍붫퇹놾럖캪죴룉ퟩ,럖뇰맀볆룷212ꆡ퇹놾ퟜ쳥뗄쫕죫떯탔맀볆ퟩ뗄쫕죫떯탔,쓜릻쏨쫶쫕죫떯탔퓚늻춬쫕죫볒춥훐(1)춳볆뷡맻뗄닮틬ꆣ놾퇐뺿내헕볒춥쫕죫붫퇹놾럖캪쯄ퟩ,쎿ퟩ뇭1쇐돶쇋샻폃퇹놾ퟜ쳥맀볆쫕죫떯탔쪱뗄춳볆퇹놾쫽듳훂쿠춬(벴내헕1Π4럖캻쫽뗣럖ퟩ)ꆣ잰3뷡맻ꆣ평폚뷘쏦쫽뻝뇈뷏죝틗돶쿖틬랽닮컊쳢(좴벸ퟩ뻹늻듦퓚틬랽닮컊쳢,뗚4ퟩ듦퓚틬랽닮,틲듋닉뫵늻믡돶쿖탲쇐쿠맘컊쳢),컒쏇ퟅ훘볬퇩쇋틬랽닮폃쇋WLS뷸탐맀볆ꆣ룷ퟩ훐뗄퇹놾룶쫽ꆢ쫕죫랶캧쫇럱듦퓚ꆣ쫗쿈샻폃웕춨ퟮ킡뛾돋램(OLS)뷸탐맀뫍쫕죫떯탔뗄맀볆뷡맻볻뇭2ꆣ볆,랢쿖틬랽닮쿖쿳뫜쏷쿔(White볬퇩뗄F횵뫜듳),틲듋닉폃볓좨ퟮ킡뛾돋램(WLS)뿋럾틬랽닮뇭2ꆡ늻춬쫕죫ퟩ뗄쫕죫떯탔컊쳢ꆣTable2ꆡStatisticalresultsofincomeelasticityestimationofdifferentincomegroups뇭1ꆡ샻폃퇹놾ퟜ쳥맀볆쫕죫떯탔뗄춳볆뷡맻볒춥쫕죫ퟩ1234Table1ꆡStatisticalresultsofincomeelasticity퇹놾룶쫽2831235724002193estimationusingallobservations쫕죫랶캧(풪Π퓂)ꇜ3000ꇜ5000ꇜ10000>10000샻폃WLS맀볆맀볆랽램OLSOLSOLSWLS퇹놾룶쫽9781힡랿탨쟳뗄쫕죫떯탔(ꛇ)0191019611050164힡랿탨쟳뗄쫕죫떯탔(ꛇ)0186T춳볆솿4610833191543326130332410133T춳볆솿18110733뗷헻뫳뗄뗷헻뫳뗄R20143011401220188R20196F춳볆솿F춳볆솿2123133333811683369114433576158333278716733ꆡꆡꆡꆡ힢:33:퓚99%뗄쿔훸탔쮮욽쿂쿔훸ꆣ33:퓚99%뗄훃탅쮮욽쿂쿔훸ꆣ듓뇭1뿉틔뾴돶,샻폃WLS맀볆뗄랽돌T뫍F듓뇭2뿉틔뾴돶,룷ퟩ뗄T뫍F뻹퓚99%뗄훃춳볆솿뻹퓚99%뗄훃탅쮮욽쿂쿔훸돉솢,닉폃WLS탅쮮욽쿂쿔훸,틲듋쫕죫떯탔뗄맀볆횵쫇폐킧뗄ꆣ쯦횮뫳뗄쓢뫏폅뛈듯떽0196ꆣ틲듋,놱뺩쫐릺랿볒춥뗄ퟅ볒춥쫕죫뗄퓶뎤,쫕죫떯탔돊쿖쿈짏짽뫳쿂붵뗄쟷쫕죫떯탔뗄뫏샭맀볆횵캪0186ꆣ쫆,뗚3ퟩ뗄쫕죫떯탔ퟮ룟,뗚4ퟩퟮ뗍ꆣ(2)뺭볃틢틥럖컶(2)뺭볃틢틥럖컶쫕죫떯탔뗄맀볆횵킡폚1,쫴폚좱랦떯탔뗄랶틔짏맀볆횵뫜쟥컺뗘랴펳쇋늻춬쫕죫뷗닣뗄볒춥돫ꆣ쇭췢,평폚놾퇐뺿뗄퇹놾뻖쿞폚릺랿볒춥,죧맻뛔힡랿쿻럑뗄욫뫃돌뛈ꆣ쫕죫쮮욽욫뗍뗄볒춥평폚뮹뾼싇쯹폐놱뺩쫐뗄뻓쏱볒춥,퓲룃떯탔횵믡폐쯹쿂탨볦맋웤쯼믹놾쿻럑(샽죧뒩틂뫍돔랹),힡랿쿻럑붵[7,8]ꆣ쏀맺톧헟틔룷훖퇹놾(튻룶돇쫐믲헟뛠룶돇뗄퓶뎤룺늻짏쫕죫뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈ꆣ쯦ퟅ쫕죫쮮욽뗄짏쫐)쯹맀볆뗄ퟔ폐힡랿볒춥뗄쫕죫떯탔럖늼퓚111떽짽,웤쯼믹놾탨쟳뫜죝틗뻍뗃떽싺ퟣ,힡랿돉캪쿻럑115횮볤[5],뫜쏷쿔놱뺩쫐릺랿볒춥뗄쫕죫떯탔폫웤(믲춶)뗄훘뗣,힡랿쿻럑뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈뷓뷼폚짵훁쿠뇈쫇욫뗍뗄ꆣ뎬맽쫕죫뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈ꆣ떫튻룶볒춥뗄힡랿쿻럑뇏뺹쫇뇘탨욷춨뎣쫇좱랦쫕죫떯탔뗄,짝돞욷헽뫃쿠폐쿞뛈뗄,떱볒춥쫕죫쮮욽듯떽튻뚨룟뗄쫽솿쪱,힡랴ꆣ쏀맺톧헟뗄퇐뺿뇭쏷[5],죋쏇틑뺭늻퓙냑ퟔ폐힡랿쿻럑(믲춶)뗄쿠뛔훘튪돌뛈폖믡쿂붵,훰붥놻랿떱돉뷶뷶쫇헚럧뇜폪뫍택쾢뗄뎡쯹,뛸룼뛠뗘쫇샻웤쯼쿻럑믲춶훘뗣쯹좡듺,쪹쫕죫떯탔쟷폚쿂붵ꆣ
ꆡ뗚38뻭ꆡ뗚7웚횣쮼웫뗈ꆤ힡랿탨쟳뗄쫕죫떯탔:쒣탍ꆢ맀볆폫풤닢ꆤ521ꆤ214ꆡ뮧훷쓪쇤폫볒춥힡랿탨쟳쫕죫떯탔붫살듲쯣,틲듋튲늻퓙힢훘릺싲힡랿,뛸쫇쾲뫃웤쯼(1)춳볆뷡맻튻킩탎쪽뗄쿻럑(샽죧튽쇆놣붡ꆢ싃폎뗈)ꆣ헢킩틲붫퇹놾내뮧훷쓪쇤듳킡럖캪죴룉ퟩ,럖뇰맀볆룷쯘믡떼훂힡랿탨쟳쫕죫떯탔볌탸붵뗍ꆣퟜ횮,쫕죫떯ퟩ뗄쫕죫떯탔,뻍쓜쏨쫶볒춥퓚볒춥짺쏼훜웚(튻룶탔쯦뮧훷쓪쇤뗄뇤뮯,랴펳쇋튻룶볒춥퓚볒춥짺쏼훜볒춥듓웤붨솢ꆢ짺뛹폽얮ꆢퟓ얮샫뾪좥ퟩ붨탂뗄볒웚훐뛔힡랿뗄욫뫃벰웤쫕죫뫍닆뢻풼쫸ힴ뿶뗄뇤뮯ꆣ춥,떽샏솽뿚낲뛈췭쓪헢퇹튻룶맽돌,householdlife2cycle)뗄늻춬뷗뛎,힡랿탨쟳쫕죫떯탔뗄뇤뮯ꆣ놾퇐3ꆡ폃쫕죫떯탔뷸탐힡랿탨쟳풤닢뺿내헕뮧훷쓪쇤붫퇹놾럖캪4ퟩ,볻뇭3ꆣ춬퇹,잰3ퟩ평폚듦퓚틬랽닮컊쳢뛸닉폃쇋WLS뷸탐맀볆ꆣ퓚샻폃쫕죫떯탔뷸탐힡랿탨쟳뗄풤닢쪱,뇘탫튪뇭3ꆡ늻춬뮧훷쓪쇤ퟩ뗄쫕죫떯탔ힼ좷냑컕쫕죫떯탔뗄뺭볃몬틥,벴떱웤쯼쳵볾뚼놣돖Table3ꆡStatisticalresultsofincomeelasticityestimation늻뇤쪱,볒춥쫕죫퓶뎤1%쯹떼훂뗄힡랿탨쟳뗄퓶볓ofgroupsofdifferenthouseholdheadages솿ꆣ헢샯뗄힡랿탨쟳쫇뛔힡랿럾컱(쏦믽ꆢ훊솿뫍뮷ꆡ뮧훷쓪쇤ퟩABCD뺳뗄ퟛ뫏)뗄탨쟳,듓캢맛뷇뛈ퟮ뫃뗄뛈솿랽램쫇힡퇹놾룶쫽16186636146463랿뗄ퟢ뷰ꆣ튲뻍쫇쮵,떱튻룶볒춥뗄쫕죫짏짽1%뮧훷쓪쇤랶캧30쯪틔쿂30ꆫ44쯪45ꆫ59쯪60쯪벰틔짏쪱,쯻쏇쯹쾣췻뻓힡뗄힡랿뗄쫐뎡ퟢ뷰뿉뇈떱잰힡랿맀볆랽램WLSWLSWLSOLS힡랿탨쟳뗄쫕죫뗄쫐뎡ퟢ뷰쳡룟ꛇ%,떱좻헢룶탨쟳뿉쓜믡쪵쿖,튲떯탔뿉쓜믡틲캪쫕죫뗄짏헇뮹늻ퟣ틔횧뢶뮻랿뗄붻틗돉놾(ꛇ0179018701840173)T춳볆솿63121331511703369115331012033뛸퓝쪱컞램쪵쿖ꆣ죧맻듓뫪맛뷇뛈살뾼달,벴퇐뺿튻뗷헻뫳뗄R20198019601770162룶돇쫐뗄힡랿탨쟳죧뫎쯦룃돇쫐뻓쏱뗄뿉횧엤쫕죫뗄F춳볆솿399516733230131593347821373310319533퓶뎤뛸뇤뮯,퓚힡랿훊솿뫍뮷뺳뇤뮯늻듳뗄쟩뿶쿂ꆡꆡ힢:33:퓚99%뗄쿔훸탔쮮욽쿂쿔훸ꆣ(샽죧잰뫳솽쓪뗄뇈뷏),뿉틔붫뛔힡랿럾컱뗄탨쟳뷼춬퇹쯆캪뛔힡랿쏦믽뗄탨쟳ꆣ헢쪱,떱쫕죫짏헇1%쪱,,룷ퟩ뗄T뫍F튲뻹퓚99%뗄훃탅쮮욽쿂쿔훸,떯탔뗄맀볆횵쫇폐킧뗄ꆣ뿉틔뾴돶,뮧훷쓪쇤룃돇쫐뗄힡랿탨쟳쫽솿(벴룃쓪쓪쒩뗄힡랿듦솿)펦뒦폚늻춬뷗뛎뗄볒춥뗄쫕죫떯탔듦퓚ퟅ닮틬ꆣ쯦ퟅ뮧룃퓚쓪돵듦솿뗄믹뒡짏퓶볓ꛇ%ꆣ훷쓪쇤뗄짏짽,쫕죫떯탔쿈퓶뎤,뫳붵뗍,퓚30ꆫ틔놱뺩쫐캪샽,1999쓪쒩놱뺩쫐뗄힡랿듦솿캪44쯪헢룶쓪쇤뛎듯떽ퟮ듳횵ꆣ17234췲m2(붨훾쏦믽,쿂춬),2000쓪돇헲죋뻹뿉(2)뺭볃틢틥럖컶횧엤쫕죫뗄퓶뎤싊캪819%ꆣ죧맻내헕0186뗄쫕죫떯쫕죫떯탔쯦뮧훷쓪쇤뗄퓶뎤쿈짽뫳붵뗄쿖쿳,뿉탔살맀쯣,퓲2000쓪힡랿탨쟳뗄퓶볓솿펦떱쫇17234틔춨맽볒춥짺쏼훜웚훐쫕죫ꆢ닆뢻뫍힡랿쿻럑욫뫃뗄ꇁ819%ꇁ0186=1319췲m2ꆣ힢틢,헢횻쫇평폚쫕죫뇤뮯살뷢쫍ꆣ퓚뇈뷏쓪쟡뗄쪱뫲(30쯪틔쿂),췹췹퓶볓뛸떼훂뗄힡랿탨쟳뗄퓶볓솿,죧맻풤닢힡랿탨쟳쫇룕닎볓릤ퟷ,횰캻닣듎뷏뗍쟒좱랦뺭퇩ꆣ헢쪱쯻쏇ퟜ뗄퓶볓솿,퓲뇘탫춬쪱뾼싇죋뿚퓶뎤틲쯘뗄펰쿬ꆣ뗄쫕죫늻룟,뛸웤쯼뗄믹놾탨쟳튲짐듽싺ퟣ,춬쪱쓑샽죧,2000쓪놱뺩쫐죋뿚퓶뎤(ퟔ좻뇤뚯볓믺킵뇤틔믽샛ퟣ릻뗄닆뢻,틲듋쫕죫떯탔욫뗍ꆣ30ꆫ44쯪뚯)캪8137췲죋,죋뻹힡랿쏦믽캪19166m2,퓲틲쓪쇤뛎뗄볒춥돉풱,쯦ퟅ퓚릫쮾믲믺릹훐횰캻뗄짏짽죋뿚뇤뚯쯹떼훂뗄힡랿탨쟳퓶볓솿풼캪165췲m2ꆣ뫍쟷폚컈뚨,쫕죫튲믡퓶뎤,뛔캴살쫕죫뗄풤웚튲훰솽헟쿠볓,2000쓪놱뺩쫐뻓쏱힡랿탨쟳뗄퓶볓솿붥쳡룟,뛸쟒볒춥닆뢻틑믽샛뗃뷏뛠ꆣ볒춥퓚헢룶쓪(벴힡랿쿺쫛솿)뗄맀볆횵캪1484췲m2ꆣ뛸쪵볊짏힡쇤뛎춨뎣믡짺폽ퟓ얮,쯹탨힡랿뗄뿕볤뫍훊솿뚼믡짏랿탨쟳뗄퓶볓솿캪1404m2(2000쓪쒩놱뺩쫐뗄힡랿짽,헢쪹볒춥믡룼볓욫뫃힡랿쿻럑,떼훂힡랿탨쟳쫕듦솿캪18639췲m2),컳닮뷶캪517%(맀볆횵룟폚죫떯탔짏짽ꆣ퓚뮧훷쓪쇤맽45쯪틔뫳,쯤좻닆뢻돖쪵볊횵)ꆣ잰쏦틑뺭횸돶,놱뺩쫐뻓쏱볒춥ퟜ쳥뗄쫕탸퓶볓,떫풤웚쫕죫쮮욽붫돊쿖쿂붵쟷쫆,뛹얮춨뎣죫떯탔믡싔뗍폚0186(벴쫕죫떯탔뗄맀볆횵욫룟),튲틑돉죋늢ퟩ붨탂뗄볒춥,뛔힡랿뿕볤쫽솿뫍훊솿뗄헢튻틲쯘뿉틔뷸튻늽쯵킡맀볆컳닮ꆣ탨쟳쿠펦붵뗍ꆣ쪵횤럖컶뇭쏷,헢킩틲쯘뗄뫏돉킧펦쫇쪹쫕죫떯탔붵뗍ꆣ뮧훷쓪쇤뎬맽60쯪뗄볒춥,평4ꆡퟜ뷡폫랢햹쟷쫆에뛏폚뮧훷듳뛠틑뺭췋택,쫕죫쮮욽쿂붵,뛸쟒뮧훷쓪쇤듳튻킩뗄볒춥믹놾틑뺭펵폐힡랿,폖늻뇘퓙맽뛠뗘캪놾컄듓샭싛짏럖컶쇋힡랿탨쟳쫕죫떯탔뗄맀볆랽
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