뗚12뻭ꆡ뗚4웚2004쓪ꆡꆡ8퓂ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ훐맺맜샭뿆톧ChineseJournalofMꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ,.,ꆡ2004컄헂뇠뫅:1003-207(2004)04-0020-04맑춷쫐뎡닺솿폫볛룱췆닢뇤닮횮볤뗄맘쾵죙캰(뢴떩듳톧맜샭톧풺,짏몣ꆡ200433)햪ꆡ튪:폃폚퇐뺿맑춷슢뛏쫐뎡뗄췆닢뇤닮랽램,뿉틔붫룷훖맑춷탐캪쒣탍뷸탐춳튻,놾컄퓚헢룶믹뒡짏,뾼달쇋닺솿췆닢뫍볛룱췆닢횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ헢훖뛔펦맘쾵뛔폚컒쏇샭뷢뫍횸떼쪵볹,폈웤쫇햽싔맜샭,뚼폐튻볒뗄냯훺ꆣ맘볼듊:췆닢뇤닮;맑춷슢뛏;햽싔맜샭훐춼럖샠뫅:F224ꆡꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:A1ꆡ틽퇔쿠탅:퓚늻춬뗄쫐뎡훐,맑춷슢뛏헟틔늻춬뗄랽쪽쿠뮥펰쿬,틲듋튻룶뢲룇뷏맣쟸볤뗄쒣탍뛔샭뷢헢훖췪좫뺺헹폫슢뛏뗄튻룶릲춬쳘헷쫇뎧짌퓚볛룱쿖쿳쫇폐틢틥뗄ꆣ컄쿗\[1\횸]돶:뛔폚닺튵뺭볃톧뺭믲닺솿뻶닟쪱늻뾼싇웤쯻뎧짌뗄랴펦ꆣ쫂쪵짏헢퇹퇩퇐뺿뗄횸떼랽쏦,훁뷱캪횹퓚죎뫎쫂볾훐,췆닢쒣뗄볙짨퓚뻸듳늿럖뗄쫐뎡훐쫇늻싺ퟣ뗄ꆣ틲캪뎧짌탍뚼뇈늩?싛쒣탍룼캪쫊폃ꆣCournot쒣탍쫇ퟮ볲볈늻뿉쓜뛠뗃쪹뎧짌즥쪧ퟔ벺뗄펰쿬솦,튲늻뿉쓜떥뗄닺솿췆닢맑춷슢뛏쒣탍,뛸Betrand쒣탍쫇뷏튻룶탐튵횻폐튻룶캨튻뗄뎧짌(샽죧평폚믱좡슢뛏캪쫬쾤뗄볛룱췆닢맑춷쒣탍ꆣ죋쏇좴뫜짙힢틢헢솽좨솦뗄쓑뛈믲맺볒뗄랴슢뛏헾닟맦훆)ꆣ쿠랴듳뛠룶쒣탍횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ쫽탐튵듦퓚폐펰쿬뗄짙쫽뎧짌,쯻쏇뛔헻룶탐튵뗄컄헂뾪쪼볲떥쏨쫶쇋튻냣뗄췆닢뇤닮쒣탍,좻닺돶뫍볛룱폐늿럖뗄슢뛏솦ꆣ맑춷슢뛏쫐뎡쳘탔뻍뫳뇈뷏쇋퓚닮틬닺욷쿂,맘폚닺솿뗄췆닢뫍맘폚볛쫇쎿튻뎧짌뚼죏쪶떽쯻쏇횮볤뗄쿠뮥펰쿬ꆣ퓚헢훖룱뗄췆닢횮볤뗄맘쾵,ퟮ뫳뇊헟늹돤쇋룃쒣탍놾짭쟩탎쿂,쎿룶뎧짌붫풤닢뛔쫖뛔폚ퟔ벺뻶닟뗄랴펦,뗄늻ퟣ,틔벰뛔폚쪵볹,폈웤쫇햽싔맜샭뗄틢틥ꆣ늢붫헢훖랴펦폖뾼싇떽ퟔ벺뗄뻶닟횮훐ꆣ퓚럇뫏ퟷ맑춷샭싛훐,룸뚨튻룶뎧짌뗄뻶닟믡펰쿬웤뺺헹뛔2ꆡ럇닮틬닺욷쿂춳튻뗄췆닢뇤닮쒣탍쫖뗄뻶닟ꆣ캪쇋붫뎧짌톡퓱햽싔뗄탐캪쒣탍뮯,ퟮ볙짨탐튵뗄쓦탨쟳몯쫽캪p(Q),웤훐Q=뎣볻뗄볙짨뻍쫇퓚룸뚨웤쯻뎧짌샻죳ퟮ듳뮯뗄뻶닟쪱,죧뫎톡퓱쪹ퟔ벺뗄샻죳ퟮ듳뮯뗄햽싔ꆣ햽싔뿉ꇆnqi쫇헻룶탐튵뗄닺돶,qi쫇탐튵훐뗚i룶웳튵뗄i=1틔쫇톡퓱닺솿,톡퓱볛룱,튲뿉틔쫇웤쯻톡퓱(죧퇐닺솿ꆣ볙짨탨쟳몯쫽뛾듎솬탸뿉캢,쿲쿂쟣킱,뛸쟒뺿폫뾪랢ꆢ춶ꆢ뗘샭캻훃뗈)ꆣ룹뻝Frisch뗄뚨틥:뇟볊쫕틦쟺쿟튲쫇쿲쿂쟣킱뗄ꆣ웳튵뗄떥캻짺닺돉뎧짌맘폚뛔쫖뛔폚ퟔ벺뻶닟뇤솿뗄뇤뮯쯹닉좡뗄탐놾쫇뎣쫽cꆣ웳튵i뗄샻죳몯쫽쫇톡퓱qi벫듳뮯ꆣ뚯뗄탅쓮뻍쫇췆닢뇤닮(conjecturalvariation)ꆣV(q)i=p(Q)qi-cq(i1)쿖듺뗄닺튵뺭볃톧퇐뺿,늻맜쫇샭싛뗄뮹쫇뺭퇩뗄,뚼붨솢퓚맘폚맑춷슢뛏쫐뎡뗄헽쪽뗄쒣탍믹볙짨ꛘi=9Q=1+9qꇆn9qj/9qiꆡi=1,2ꆭni뒡짏,뛸늻쫇붨솢퓚뷡릹-탐캪-벨킧뗄뿲볜횮짏ꆣj=1jꇙi쯤좻춳튻뗄췆닢뇤닮쒣탍폐뫜뛠늻ퟣ,떫쫇쯼쓜릻(2)뢲룇듓뺺헹떽슢뛏뗄헻룶쫐뎡벨킧쟸볤헢튻쫂쪵쪹쫇웳튵i맘폚ퟔ짭닺솿뇤뮯붫떼훂탐튵닺돶뇤뮯뇈뗃쪵횤퇐뺿헟뛔쯻쏇룼캪뿭죝,컒쏇폐쯹폐뗄샭평싊뗄튻훖탅쓮,뛸9qj/9qi뻍쫇웳튵i뗄닺솿췆닢뇤닮ꆪꆪꆪퟔ짭닺솿뇤뮯떼훂웤뺺헹뛔쫖닺솿뗄쿠뛔쫕룥죕웚:2003-03-28;탞뚩죕웚:2004-01-08ퟷ헟볲뷩:죙캰(1979-),쓐(몺ퟥ),붭쯕첩훝죋,짏몣쫐뢴떩뇤뮯ꆣ컒쏇볙짨,웳튵뗄ퟔ짭닺솿퓶볓붫떼훂탐튵닺듳톧맜샭톧풺웳튵맜샭늩쪿퇐뺿짺,퇐뺿랽쿲:펪쿺돶퓶볓,쇭췢컒쏇풤웚웤쯻웳튵훁뛠삩헅폫i쿠춬뺭볃톧1뗄닺솿(9qj/9qiꇜ1)ꆣ쓇쎴0<ꛘiꇜn,컒쏇믘뇜쇋
뗚4웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ죙캰:맑춷쫐뎡닺솿폫볛룱췆닢뇤닮횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆤ21ꆤ튻냣뷌뿆쫩짏횱뷓뚨틥췆닢뇤닮9qj/9qi뗄랽램,쫇췪좫뺺헹뗄튻뷗쳵볾ꆣ떱W=1쪱,Q듯떽ퟮ킡,닉폃쇋컄쿗[1]볤뷓뚨틥뗄뗷뫍뫍쫽:(틲캪헢훖뚨벴ꛘi=nꆡi=1,2ꆭn듋쪱뻍뗃떽쇋솪뫏샻죳ퟮ틥뇈횱뷓뚨틥룼캪뿭랺,쯼늻뻖쿞폚풤웚뺺헹뛔쫖,뛸쫇풤웚탐튵뇤뮯듳뮯뗄뫏쒱쒣탍ꆣ떱W=1(ꛘni=1ꆡi=1,2ꆭn))ꆣ쪱,뗃떽쇋뇪ힼ뗄Cournot쒣탍,듋쪱웳튵풤웚뺺헹W1:W=ꇆn1뛔쫖늻믡룄뇤닺솿ꆣ떱W뇤뮯쪱,뻍뗃떽쇋뷩폚슢i=1ꛘ(3)i평폚0<ꛘiꇜn,퓲0<Wꇜ1ꆣ떱듦퓚죎뫎튻룶ꛘ뛏폫췪좫뺺헹횮볤뗄룷훖맑춷쒣탍ꆣ헢룶뷡싛퓸퓚iꇺ컄쿗\[2\]-\[3훐\]쳡벰ꆣ0쪱(벴웳튵죏캪ퟔ짭닺솿뇤뮯늻믡뛔탐튵ퟜ닺솿랢짺펰쿬),Wꇺ0;떱ꛘi=n뛔쯹폐뗄i돉솢쪱3ꆡ닮틬닺욷쿂닺솿췆닢뇤닮뫍볛룱췆닢뇤(벴뺺헹뛔쫖붫룺쯦웳튵닺솿뗄뇤뮯럹뛈),W=1ꆣ닮횮볤뗄맘쾵뛔(1)평ퟮ폅뮯튻뷗쳵볾횪,뛔폚죎틢i=1,2ꆭn폐ꆡꆡ볙짨듦퓚n룶뛔돆뗄웳튵,웤떥캻돉놾캪뎣쫽c,쯼쏇쿺쫛뗄닺욷횮볤쫇럇췪좫쳦듺뗄ꆣ쓇쎴뗚1Vꇤ(q)i=qꛘiipꇤ(Q)+p(Q)-c=0(4)퓲ꆡqꛘ룶웳튵쯹쏦뛔뗄볛룱캪(웤쯻웳튵뗄볛룱샠쯆)ii=q1ꛘ1뛔폚쯹폐뗄i돉솢p1=P(q1,q2ꆭqn)(10)쓇쎴Q=ꇆnqi=q1ꛘ1/W=qꛘii/Wi=1욫캢럖9p1=Pꆡ9p1=P9qj=P2ꆡj=2ꆭn9q11j듓뛸qiQ=W1/ꛘiꛘ=ꆡiiꇆn=1,2ꆭn(5)볙짨ꆡP1<P2<0(11)1/ꛘi벴죎뫎튻룶웳튵뗄닺솿퓶볓뚼믡떼훂웳튵1닺i=1(5)쮵쏷쎿튻룶웳튵뗄쫐뎡럝뛮뷶틀삵폚쯹폐욷볛룱쿂붵,뛸쟒웳튵1닺욷뗄볛룱뛔폚ퟔ짭뗄닺뎧짌뗄탅쓮뷡릹ꆣ쳘뇰뗄,(4)볲뮯캪솿뇤뮯룼캪쏴룐ꆣQWpꇤ(Q)+p쳘샽:쿟탔탎쪽(Q)-c=0(6)탐튵닺돶Q틀삵폚뗷뫍뫍쫽W,떥캻돉놾c뫍탨쟳pi=A-Bqi-DꇆnqjꆡB>D>0(12)몯쫽j=1,뛸룃뗷뫍뫍쫽W냼몬쇋맘폚쫐뎡뷡릹(뎧짌쫽쒿)뫍웳튵탐캪(킭뗷뗄탅쓮),뛸헢킩튲뻶뚨쇋쫐웳튵1톡퓱q1쪹뗃샻죳ퟮ듳뎡뗄벨킧(탐튵닺돶Max[P(q1,q2ꆭqn)-c]q1)ꆣ평(6)붫뗃떽룼캪싺틢뗄뷡q1맻:Lerner샕쓉횸쫽튻뷗쳵볾ꆡP-c+(P1+(n-1)P2k)q1=0L=(p-c)/p=W/ꛅ(7)(13)Herfindahl-Hirschman벯훐횸쫽웤훐ꆡk=dqj/dq1ꆡj=2ꆭnn짨뛾뷗쳵볾ퟔ뚯싺ퟣ,퓲뛔폚뛔돆뷢qj=q,jH=ꇆn(qi/Q2)=W2ꇆ1/ꛘ2(i8)i=1i=1=1,2ꆭn쳵볾쿂,(12)뛔쎿룶웳튵돉솢ꆣ떱좻웳튵평(7)ꆢ(8)틗볻,쫐뎡뷡릹뫍쫐뎡탐캪뛔폚쫐뎡벨킧뿉틔톡퓱ퟔ벺뗄볛룱,평(10)듺뇭뗄n룶볛룱랽돌뗄펰쿬뚼냼몬퓚쯹뚨틥뗄W횮훐ꆣ떱W쫇뎣쫽쪱,ퟩ죧맻쓜릻뇭쪾돉n룶닺돶랽돌ퟩ쪱,짨웳튵1뗄뛔(6)쟳좫캢럖탨쟳몯쫽캪9Q/9W=-Qꇤp(Q)/WQꇥp+(1+Wꇤ)p<q1=Q(p1,p2ꆭpn)(14)0(9)붫(10)듺뇭뗄n룶볛룱랽돌ퟩ좫캢럖뗃뗚튻룶늻뗈뫅평폚0<Wꇜ1;뗚뛾룶늻뗈뫅틲캪뇟볊쫕틦뗝복ꆣ평dpj=P1dqj+ꇆnP2dqiꆡj=1,2ꆭn(15)(9),떱W풽듳,벴웳튵돖폐쿠춬i=1뗄탅쓮쪱,탐튵뗄닺돶뻍풽킡ꆣ떱Wiꇙj=0쪱,Q듯떽ퟮ듳폃Caramer램퓲쟳뷢랽돌ퟩ,듋쪱죎뫎튻룶i폐ꛘi=0,벴쎿튻룶웳튵뚼죏캪ퟔ벺닺솿뗄뇤뮯늻믡떼훂탐튵닺돶뗄뇤뮯ꆣ뛸퓚9qi=\[P9p1+(n-2)P2\]/\[P1+(n-1)P2)(P1i닺솿뻶닟뗄뿲볜훐,Betrand뻹뫢튪쟳웳튵,룹뻝볙-P뚨뛔쫖닺돶2)]<0(16)qj붫내헕p캪뎣솿뗄쳵볾뇤뮯살톡퓱9qi=-P/\[(P9q21+(n-1)P2)(P1-Pq2)]>(Q)i,벴ꇤp=0,듋쪱튻뷗쳵볾캪p(Q)=c,헢튲j
ꆤ22ꆤ훐맺맜샭뿆톧ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2004쓪0ꆡi,j=1,2ꆭn,iꇙj(17)돶뇤뮯랽쿲ퟜ쫇폫룃웳튵쿠랴ꆣ웤훐럻뫅평(11)좷뚨ꆣ뛔폚룸뚨n뫍Z,k쫇맘폚m뗄뗝퓶춹몯쫽(춼죧맻웳튵톡퓱볛룱뇤솿,퓲웳튵1톡퓱p1벫듳뮯샻1)ꆣ죧맻쒳웳튵췆닢뺺헹뛔쫖쏦뛔놾웳튵뗄볛룱뇤죳뮯,룄뇤ퟔ짭볛룱뗄럹뛈뷏듳쪱,헢뻍뗈볛폚떱룃웳Max[(p1-c)Q(p1,p2ꆭpn)]튵룄뇤닺솿쪱,뺺헹뛔쫖튲믡뷏듳럹뛈뗄룄뇤닺솿,p1튻뷗쳵볾ꆡQ+뛸쟒헢훖뇤뮯럹뛈쫇뗝퓶뗄ꆣ(p1-c)[Q1+(n-1)Q2m]=0(18)Q1,Q2럖뇰뇭쪾Q뛔뗚튻룶뫍뗚뛾룶뇤솿뗄욫떼쫽,춬퇹Qj=Q2,j=2,3ꆭn뛸쟒m=9pj/9p1,j=2,3ꆭn쫇웳튵1뗄췆닢볛룱뇤닮ꆣ쿂쏦뇊헟붫횤쏷죎뫎췆닢닺솿뇤닮믲췆닢볛룱뇤닮뚼틾몬ퟅ튻룶쿠뛔펦뗄뗈볛뗄췆닢볛룱뇤닮믲췆닢닺솿뇤닮,쪹뗃닺짺쿠춬뗄뛔돆뻹뫢볛룱뫍닺솿ꆣ맛달춼1ꆡ닺솿췆닢뇤닮폫볛룱췆닢뇤닮뗄뛔펦맘쾵(13)뫍(18)ꆡꆡ쿔좻,뫜죝틗뾴돶듳볒쯹쫬횪뗄쇣췆닢닺솿뇤-(p-c)/q=P1+(n-1)P2k=1/\[Q1+(n-1)Q2m닮뗄Cournot쒣탍(k=0)뫍쇣췆닢볛룱뇤닮뗄](19)평Betrand쒣탍(m=0)늢늻쫇뛔돆뗄ꆣ(16)-(17)Q1+(n-1)Q2m=\[P1+(n-2)P2-(n-4ꆡ뷡ꆡ싛1)mP2\]/\[P1+(n-1)P2](P1-P2)(20)붫컄헂훷튪퓚Kamien&Schwartz(1983)뗄믹뒡(20)듺죫(19)헻샭뗃짏,룸돶쇋맑춷슢뛏쫐뎡훐,웳튵닺솿췆닢뫍볛룱췆1-m=(1-k)(1-Z)/\[1+(n-1)kZ]닢뗄춳튻쒣탍,폈웤쫇럇춬훊닺욷쫐뎡훐볛룱췆닢(21)웤훐뫍닺솿췆닢횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ퓚샭싛짏,컄헂ퟮ쏷쿔뗄Z=P2/P1,0<Z<1랴펳쇋풤웚닺욷뗄뷡싛뻍쫇Cornot쒣탍뫍Betrand쒣탍늻쫇뛔돆뗄,돌뛈,Zꇺ0쮵쏷닺욷쿠뮥뛀솢;Zꇺ1쮵쏷닺욷췪웳튵룄뇤닺솿쪱,뺺헹뛔쫖늻룄뇤닺솿늢늻뗈폚웳좫쳦듺ꆣ튵룄뇤볛룱쪱,뺺헹뛔쫖늻룄뇤볛룱ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦,컄(21)쪽벴쫇컄헂뗄쒿뇪,틲캪쯼솪쾵쇋췆닢볛헂룸돶쇋췆닢뇤닮뗄뻟쳥볆쯣랽램(죧,뗚(13)ꆢ룱뇤닮m뫍췆닢닺솿뇤닮k,퓚컄훐쯹룸뗄볲떥쒣(18)쪽)ꆣ뗚죽,룃쒣탍뿉틔놻췆맣떽룼듳뗄랶캧쓚탍훐헢훖맘쾵틀삵폚뺺헹헟룶쫽뫍닺욷닮틬돌뛈ꆣ쪹폃,컄쿗\[5\뻍]붫췆닢뇤닮쒣탍쪹폃떽웳튵쯹폐헟죧맻k=1,m=1벴웳튵풤닢웤닺솿뇤뮯붫놻췪좫폫맜샭헟횮볤뗄캯췐듺샭맘쾵훐ꆣ떱좻쒣탍놾짭튲룺쯦튲뻍쫇틾몬뗘뇭쏷웳튵풤닢웤볛룱뇤뮯붫놻췪폐튻뚨뗄늻ퟣ:튻쫇헢퇹뗄뷡맻퓚늻뛔돆웳튵뗄쟩좫룺쯦ꆣ랴횮틠뛔ꆣ죧맻k=-1/(n-1)퓲m=k탎,쳘뇰쫇돉놾늻쿠춬뗄웳튵쪱,쫇럱튻뚨돉솢,쳘=-1/(n-1)ꆣ죧맻웳튵풤닢웤닺솿뇤뮯붫놻웤뺺뇰쫇퓚죎틢탎쪽뗄탨쟳몯쫽뗄잰쳡쿂,튻훂탔뗄닺헹뛔쫖돥쿺쪹뗃탐튵닺돶늻뇤,튲벴틾몬뗘뇭쏷웳솿췆닢뇤닮쫇럱듦퓚뛔펦뗄튻훂탔볛룱췆닢뇤닮,튵풤닢웤볛룱뇤뮯놻뛔쫖돥쿺뛸캬돖쿺쫛늻뇤ꆣ죧랴횮쫇럱돉솢쓘?뛾쫇짏쫶뗄쒣탍쫇붨솢퓚튻웚쒣맻k=0퓲m=Z,죧맻웳튵췆닢뛔쫖붫뫶싔ퟔ벺탍믹뒡짏뗄,쿔좻,닺솿폫웳튵뗄짺닺벼쫵폐맘,뛸뗄닺솿뇤뮯,튲뻍쫇췆닢뛔쫖붫폫ퟔ짭춬랽쿲뗄룄쟒헢쫇웳튵뛌쪱웚쓑틔룄뇤뗄,맘폚닺솿뫍볛룱뗄뇤볛룱떫좴킡폚ퟔ짭뗄럹뛈(0<m<1)ꆣ죧맻m뻶닟뿉틔쫇솽뷗뛎뗄늩?ꆪꆪꆪꆰ쫽솿뗄쫂잰풼뚨폫=0퓲k=-Z/\[1+(n-2)Z]<0ꆣ볙짨쒳웳튵쳡Betrand뺺헹닺짺쇋Cournot뷡맻ꆱ(Kreps뗈,룟ퟔ벺뗄볛룱듓뛸복짙쿺쫛,춬쪱췆닢뺺헹뛔쫖늻1983)ꆣ틲듋쯤좻듳뛠쫽뷌뿆쫩뚼쫇듓닺솿뻶닟뾪룄뇤웤볛룱,쯻쏇튻뚨믡퓶볓쯻쏇뗄닺돶,틔릩룸쓇쪼맑춷슢뛏뗄퇐뺿,떫쫇볛룱쯆뫵룼볓뷓뷼쿖쪵ꆣ킩틲룃웳튵뗄룟볛뛸컞램돐떣뗄맋뿍,틲듋쯻쏇닺죽쫇뺡맜맺췢틑뺭폐늿럖컄쿗뾪쪼쪹폃쫽뻝살뛔짏
뗚4웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ죙캰:맑춷쫐뎡닺솿폫볛룱췆닢뇤닮횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆤ23ꆤ쫶쒣탍뗄쪵볊볬퇩,떫쫇퓚훐맺좴벸뫵쎻폐ꆣ뺡맜닮뗄뫋탄쫇췆닢뺺헹뛔쫖맘폚햽싔뇤솿뇤뮯뗄쏴룐컒쏇짭뇟폐튻킩뿉쓜폐킧뗄낸샽,뇈죧닊뗧튵ꆣ틲뛈,믲헟쫇탐뚯뗄풤닢,헢룶샭쓮뿉틔퓋폃떽웳튵뗄캪ꆰ볛룱햽ꆱ쿲살쫇훘튪뫍훷튪뗄뛔뾹랽램,뛸쎿쓪듳늿럖햽싔뻶닟훐,죧맣룦풤쯣,듓뛸캪웳튵뗄햽싔룷듳릫쮾뚼믡탻늼닺솿쒿뇪ꆣ솽헟횮볤폐쎻폐솪뾪랢뫍횴탐쳡릩쇋뺭볃톧뗄틀뻝ꆣ쾵?죧뫎뇜쏢ꆰ볛룱햽ꆱ쓘?맜샭톧퓓횾퓸뺭뎫떼웳튵볒붫췆닢폃틔룄뷸웳닎뾼컄쿗:튵뗄볆뮮맽돌뫍뺺헹뗘캻,쿔좻햽싔맜샭뗄랢햹쯆\[1\]J1뾨늼뛻1닺튵뺭볃톧잰퇘컊쳢\[M\1]놱뺩:훐맺쮰컱뫵뫍헢훖뎫떼쿠컇뫏돶냦짧,20001,듓늨쳘뗄컥훖뺺헹솦솿쒣탍뿉틔뾴떽쇋맘폚뺺헹헟뗄럖컶쫇햽싔훆뚨훐튻룶훘\[2\]VarianH1R1MicroeconomicAnalysis\[M\1](ThirdEdition)튪뗄늿럖,틲듋맘폚췆닢뺺헹뛔쫖틑쫇웕뇩뗄웳튵NortonCompanyInc1,19971탐캪\[3\]떤쓡쮹뾨뛻뛙ꆢ뷜뢥샯엥싞럲1쿖듺닺튵ퟩ횯\[M\1]짏,떫쫇폐쪱뫲헢훖췆닢쫇럱ힼ좷폖쫇쇭췢튻볾쫂쟩쇋몣:짏몣죋쏱돶냦짧,19981(Breshahann,1981),붫췆닢뇤닮샭싛틽뷸웳튵쪵볊뗄뛔닟탐캪훐좥,틑뺭폐쇋튻킩퇐뺿,떫쫇죋\[4\]Kamien,M,Schwartz,N1ConjecturalVariations\[J\].Can2adianJournalofEconomics,1983,16:191-2111쏇쯆뫵룼풸틢쪹폃샠쯆뛠웚늩?싛살쒣탍뮯웳튵탐\[5\]HognHwang,Chao-chengMai1StrategicManagement캪,헢퇹ퟶ뗄튻룶쳴햽쫇쓑틔쪵횤볬퇩ꆣ컄쿗\[8\틑]underDuopoly\[J\]1ManagerialandDecisionEconomics,뺭룸돶쇋튻룶뫜뫃뗄샽ퟓ:죧뫎붫췆닢뇤닮퓋폃떽May/Jun1995,161웳튵죕뎣뺭펪뗄뺺헹헟럖컶훐,뺡맜헢튻뗣퓚컄쿗\[6\]Krpes,DavidM1,JoseScheinkman1QualityPrecommit2mentandBetrandCompetitionYieldCournotOutcomes\[J\]\[9\훐]틑뺭쳡벰,떫쫇ퟷ헟룸돶쇋솽룶탐튵뗄낸샽살쮵쏷췆닢뇤닮죧뫎뫢솿ꆢ죧뫎맀볆1BellJournalofEconomics,1983,14:326-3371,듓뛸죧뫎냯훺웳튵ퟶ돶뻶닟ꆣ\[7\]Breshahann,1TF1DuopolyModelsWithConsistentConjec2ퟜ횮tures\[J\1]AmericanEconomicReview,1981,71:934-9451,헢룶쒣탍퓚샭싛짏뿉틔냯훺컒쏇짮죫쇋뷢솽훖뇤닮쒣탍횮볤뗄맘쾵,뛸뛔폚쿖쪵뗄횸떼틢\[8\]Amit,Rpahael;Domowitz,Ian;Fershtman,Chaim1ꆰThink2틥폐솽닣:튻쫇떥룶웳튵죧뫎ퟶ돶닺솿뫍볛룱뗄뻶ingOneStepAhead:TheUseofConjecturesInCompetitorAnalysisꆱ\[J\]1StrategicManagementJournal,Sep/oct닟,솽헟횮볤듦퓚ퟅ싟벭짏뗄맘쾵,뛸쟒늻맜웳튵쯹1988,9,5:431-4421퓚탐튵뗄뷡릹쫇뛠쎴뢴퓓,웳튵횻탨튪ퟶ돶쒳훖췆\[9\]싵뿋뛻늨쳘,돂킡퓃틫1뺺헹폅쫆\[M\1]놱뺩:뮪쿄돶냦닢,쯼뻍뿉틔놣횤ퟔ짭뗄샻죳ퟮ듳뮯;뛾쫇룃췆닢뇤짧,19971TheRelationshipbetweenConjecturalVariationsinQuantitiesandConjecturalVariationsinPricesinOligopolyMarketCHURong2wei(SchoolofManagement,FudanUniversity,Shanghai200433,China)Abstract:Itisshownthatageneralintegratedmodelincludingconjecturalvariationswillrangefromcompletecompetitiontomonopolyinahomogeneousmarket1Then,therelationshipbetweenconjecturalvariationsinquantitiesandconjecturalvariationsinpricesindifferentiatedproductmarketisillustrated1Finally,sometheoret2icalargumentsarepresented,aswellaspossiblefirmꆯscompetitivebehaviors1Keywords:conjecturalvariation;oligopoly;strategicmanagement
