힢ꎺ듋룥퓘ꆶ룄룯ꆷꎨ쮫퓂뾯ꎩꎬ2003쓪뗚2웚 ∗쏀맺짧놣룄룯ꎺ싵쿲막욱쫐뎡뗄튻풾 횣뇼컄 훐맺짧믡뿆톧풺얷훞쯹 훚쯹훜횪ꎬ쏀맺짧믡놣헏훆뛈쪵탐뗄쫇뗤탍뗄듽폶좷뚨탍뗄쿖쫕쿖뢶훆ꆣ쯤좻쏀맺짧믡놣헏쫕횧탎쫆벸쓪살쪼훕뫜뫃ꎬ솬쓪펯폠ꎬ떫퓧퓚벸쓪잰ꎬ쏀맺짧믡놣헏쫰뻍뾪쪼퓚웤쎿쓪뗄ꆰ쓪뛈릫룦ꆱ훐솬탸랢돶풤뺯쮵ꎬ햽뫳펤뛹뎱뗄튻듺틑뺭떽쇋붫튪췋택뗄쓪쇤ꎬ퓙볓짏쫙쏼풤웚퓶볓뫍돶짺싊쿂붵뗈풭틲ꎬ훂쪹진퇸뇈싊벱뻧쿂붵ꎬ샽죧ꎬ1960쓪뗄진퇸뇈싊캪5:1ꎬ뛸쿖퓚쫇:1ꎬ떽2050쓪쫇2:1ꎻ벴퓚90쓪뗄쪱볤뿧뛈샯ꎬ진퇸뇈싊쳡룟쇋놶ꆣ퓚캴살뗄벸쪮쓪샯ꎬ떽2035쓪ꎬ짧놣돠ퟖ붫듯떽3180틚쏀풪ꎨ틔2001쓪뗄쏀풪볆쯣ꎩꎬ룸뢶뗄돉놾붫듓쒿잰뗄쫕죫쮰뗄쳡룟떽2035쓪뗄18%ꎬ짧믡놣헏믹뷰떽2041쓪붫믡뿝뷟ꎬ쓇쪱ꎬ짧놣쫕죫뷶쓜횧뢶쿖탐램싉돐억뗄룸뢶쮮욽뗄74%ꎬ럱퓲뻍탨튪붫쒿잰%뗄뷉럑뇈싊쳡룟떽%ꎻ떽2075쓪탨튪쳡룟떽%ꆣ죴내뷼벸쓪%뗄GDP퓶뎤쯙뛈볆쯣ꎬ떽2075쓪죧맻튪듯떽쫕횧욽뫢ꎬGDP뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈뻍튪듯떽%ꆣ떽2075쓪ꎬ짧놣믹뷰좱뿚캪31570틚쏀풪ꎬ믲욽뻹쎿룶릤죋췲쏀풪ꆣ 믹폚듋ꎬ쏀맺뺭볃톧뷧뫍맺믡뷼컥ꆢ쇹쓪살뻍죧뫎룄룯짧믡놣헏훆뛈ꆢ붫듽폶좷뚨탍뗄쿖쫕쿖뢶훆룄퓬돉캪뷉럑좷뚨탍뗄믽샛훆탍컊쳢뷸탐쇋벤쇒뗘쳖싛ꎻ2001쓪5퓂2죕ꎬ늼쪲헾뢮뻶뚨붫횮뢶훮탐뚯ꎺ늼쪲ퟜ춳탻늼헽쪽돉솢평솽떳돉풱ꎨ룷8쏻ꎩퟩ돉뗄16죋캯풱믡벴ꆰ볓잿짧믡놣헏ퟜ춳캯풱믡ꆱꎨ쿂볲돆ꆰퟜ춳캯풱믡ꆱꎩꎬ횱뷓뛔ퟜ춳뢺퓰ꎻ늼쪲쟗쇙돉솢틇쪽늢랢뇭붲뮰ꎬ쯻쮵ꎬ돉솢ꆰퟜ춳캯풱믡ꆱ횼퓚ꆰ퇐뺿뫍쳡돶뻟쳥틢볻ꎬ틔놣뮤샏튻듺뗄짧믡놣헏ꎬ캪탂튻듺붨솢뢣ꆱꎻ캪놣횤쪹짧믡놣헏훆뛈쿖듺뮯늢뻟폐뿉돖탸탔ꎬ늼쪲쟗ퟔ캪ꆰퟜ춳캯풱믡ꆱ쳡돶쇋쇹쿮풭퓲ꎺ늻쓜룄뇤췋택헟뗄짧믡놣헏룸뢶쮮욽ꎻ쯹폐짧믡놣헏뗄펮폠뇘탫늢쟒횻쓜폃폚짧믡놣헏놾짭ꎻ늻뗃퓶볓짧믡놣헏뗄뷉럑ꎻ헾뢮늻쓜붫짧믡놣헏믹뷰춶폚막욱쫐뎡ꎻ뇘탫튪캬돖닐헏헟뫍틅쫴탒듦헟뗄뢣샻볆뮮ꎻ붨솢ퟔ풸뗄ꆢ췋택헟놾죋뿉틔뿘훆뗄룶죋췋택헋뮧ꆣꆰퟜ춳캯풱믡ꆱ 뫄77췲쏀풪ꎬ퓚뎤듯웟룶퓂뗄릤ퟷ훐헙뾪쇋8듎ꆰ믹뗷죕돌믡틩ꆱꎬ2듎쳽횤믡틩ꎬ쳽좡쇋34캻볒뗄횤듊ꎬ맣랺뗘뷓뒥쇋듳솿뗄맺믡틩풱ꆢ짧놣ퟜ쫰ꆢ짧놣톯캯풱믡뗈볒톧헟ꎬퟮ훕폚2001쓪12퓂쿲ퟜ춳쳡붻쇋ꆶ볓잿짧믡놣헏ꆢ캪좫쳥쏀맺죋쏱뒴퓬룶죋뢣ꆷꆱ뗄뎤듯256튳뗄ꆶퟜ춳캯풱믡놨룦ꆷꎨ쿂볲돆ꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꎩꆣ ∗ 놾컄ퟷ헟쫜떽맺볒쇴톧믹뷰캯풱믡뗄훺퓚쏀맺늨쪿뛙톧풺퇸샏뷰훐탄뷸탞죽룶퓂ꎬ쳘듋뇭쪾룐킻ꎻ쇏뷘횹떽2002쓪11퓂뗗ꆣ놾컄폫ힾ컄ꆶ짧믡놣헏쮽폐뮯퓚쏀맺——쏀맺떱잰뗄튻뎡듳뇧싛ꆷꎨ퓘폚ꆶ맺볊뺭볃움싛ꆷꎬ2003쓪뗚1웚ꎩ뫍ꆶꆰW뗄냬램ꆱꎺ뮪뛻뷖폫뢣샻ꆪꆪ쏀맺튽쇆폫퇸샏놣쿕룄룯뗄쮽폐뮯쟣쿲ꆷꎨ퓘폚ꆶ뛁쫩ꆷ2003쓪뗚3웚ꎩ춬캪쏃욪ꆣ 1
ꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ캪쏀맺짧믡놣헏쮽폐뮯룄룯릴뮭쇋튻룶삶춼ꆣ ꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ뗄룄룯삶춼쫇쪲쎴ꎿ ꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ돆ꎬ쒿잰쫀뷧짏폐20뛠룶맺볒붨솢쇋룶죋헋뮧훆뛈ꎬ샽죧낢룹춢ꆢ냄듳샻퇇ꆢ훇샻ꆢ쒫컷룧ꆢ늨삼ꆢ죰쪿ꆢ펢맺뗈ꎬ믽샛쇋탭뛠뺭퇩ꎬ짵훁죰뗤ퟮ뷼튲캪뒫춳훆뛈볓뷸쇋룶죋헋뮧쾵춳ꆣ폫듋춬쪱ꎬ쏀맺맺쓚뗄401ꎨKꎩ뫍IRA볆뮮튲캪웤룄룯믽샛쇋탭뛠뺭퇩ꆣ룃놨룦죏캪ꎬ20쫀볍좫쫀뷧ꆰ뾽놴ꆱ뗄쫇쏀맺짧믡놣헏훆뛈뗄샭쓮ꎬ떫퓚21쫀볍퓚짧믡놣헏훆뛈쿖듺뮯뗄룄룯뷸돌훐ꎬ쏀맺컞틉뗘실뫳쇋ꆣ캪듋ꎬꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ뫴폵뇘탫튪펭춷룏짏ꆣ 튻ꆢퟜ쳥짨볆쮼슷ꆣ ꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ죏캪ꎬ틔췹뗄룄룯뺭퇩훐룶죋헋뮧뗄짨볆폐솽훖벫뛋뗄쒣쪽ꎬ튻룶쫇ꆰ벯훐맜샭ꆱ뗄쒣쪽ꎬ벴쯹폐뗄뷉럑벯훐뷸죫횸뚨뗄훐퇫맜샭믺릹ꎬ쯼뢺퓰맜샭쯹폐뷉럑볇슼늢뢺퓰춶ꎬ웤쳘뗣쫇탐헾맜샭럑폃뷏뗍ꎬ횸쫽뮯뗄믹뷰훖샠뷏뛠ꎬ헢킩횸쫽뮯뗄믹뷰뿉틔톡퓱릺싲릫쮾막욱ꎬ웤춶뗄맦쒣폫룃릫쮾뗄쫐횵튪폐튻뚨뗄뇈샽뿘훆ꎬ폐뗣쿱쒿잰뗄ꆰ쏀맺솪냮헾뢮맍풱뫍뻼죋췋택볆뮮ꆱꎨTSPꎩꎬ평뚭쫂뻖뢺퓰뻟쳥뗄믹뷰춶ꆣꆰ벯훐맜샭ꆱ뗄쒣쪽퓚뛌웚쓚폐튻뚨뗄폅쫆ꎬ떫퓚뎤웚쓚퓲늻쫇ퟮ병뗄톡퓱ꎬ틲캪쯼늻쓜뫜뫃뗘쫊펦쫐뎡맦퓲ꎬ뛔웤믹뷰맜샭죋늻싺틢뗄쿻럑헟늻쓜ꆰ폃뷅춶욱ꆱꎨ횸톡퓱뇰뗄맜샭죋ꎩꆣ쇭튻룶벫뛋쒣쪽쫇ꆰ럖즢맜샭ꆱꎬ웤훐튻룶훘튪뗄ꆰ냦놾ꆱ쫇쿖퓚쏀맺쮽죋늿쏅뗄401ꎨKꎩ볆뮮ꎬ웤쳘뗣쫇뷉럑횱뷓듓맍훷쫖샯틆떽쮽죋늿쏅뗄믹뷰쫖훐ꎬ헢퇹뿉틔싺ퟣ늻춬닣듎뗄탨쟳ꎬ늢쯦쪱뿉틔틆ꎬ헾뢮뗄퓰죎횻쫇뢺퓰뛔믹뷰뫍맍훷뷸탐볠뚽ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ헢훖ꆰ럖즢맜샭ꆱ쒣쪽뗄컊쳢쫇ꆰ횴탐돌탲뗄돉놾ꆱ뷏룟ꆣ 본폚뛔짏쫶솽훖벫뛋쒣쪽샻뇗뗄좨뫢ꎬꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ쳡돶쇋솽횧훹뗄ꆰ믬뫏ꆱ쒣쪽ꎺ쯹폐뗄뷉럑쫗쿈뷸죫훐퇫맜샭믺릹ꎬ쪹폃쒿잰쿖돉뗄쮰훆쳥쾵ꎬ릤죋뗄춶평룃훐퇫믺릹춳튻횴탐ꎬ퓚돵뒴뷗뛎ꎬ좫늿쫕죫춶폚ꆰ뗚튻횧훹ꆱꎻ퓚헢룶횧훹훐ꎬ릤죋톡퓱뗄랶캧믹놾짏뻍쫇쒿잰ꆰ쏀맺솪냮헾뢮맍풱뫍뻼죋췋택볆뮮ꆱꎨTSPꎩ춶뗄믹뷰랶캧ꎬ듋췢ꎬ퓚볓짏죽룶ꆰ욽뫢믹뷰ꆱ뫍튻룶뗖폹춨믵엲헍뗄햮좯믹뷰ꆣ떱릤죋뗄믽샛뛮뎬맽튻뚨쏅볷틔뫳ꎨ샽죧5000쏀풪ꎩꎬ틔짏늿럖뿉틔춶폚 ꆰ뗚뛾횧훹ꆱ벴쮽죋늿쏅뗄믹뷰ꆣ퓚붨솢룶죋헋뮧뗄춷죽쓪샯ꎬ튪훆뚨ꆰ뗚뛾횧훹ꆱ쯹뇘탨뗄볆뮮ꎬ컥쓪횮쓚폨틔횴탐ꎬ냼삨뗚뛾횧훹뗄죋쫂맜샭ꆢ죭볾짨놸뗈뗈ꆣ뗚튻횧훹펦룃쳡릩죴룉뇪ힼ믹뷰ꎬ릤죋뿉틔퓚욽뫢믹뷰뫍5룶횸쫽뮯믹뷰뗄죎틢ퟩ뫏횮훐뷸탐톡퓱ꎻ믹뷰맜샭럾컱펦닉좡뺺뇪뗄랽쪽뷸탐ꎬ틔붵뗍맜샭럑폃ꆣ욽뫢믹뷰뗄춶펦퓚릫쮾막욱ꆢ릫쮾햮좯뫍헾뢮햮좯횮볤뷸탐엤뇈ꆣ횸쫽뮯뗄욽뫢믹뷰뿉틔럖캪죽샠ꎺꆰ놣쫘탍ꆱ욽뫢믹뷰펦룃릺싲듳솿뗄헾뢮햮좯뫍룟훊솿뗄릫쮾햮좯ꎬꆰ돉뎤탍ꆱ욽뫢믹뷰펦돖폐뷏룟뇈샽뗄막욱ꎬ뛸ꆰ훐볤탍ꆱ욽뫢믹뷰돖막뇈샽펦퓚헢뛾헟횮볤ꎬ쯼쏇냼삨ꎺG믹뷰ꎨ헾뢮횤좯춶믹뷰ꎩꆢF믹뷰ꎨ쫕죫만뚨탍횸쫽뮯춶믹뷰ꎩꆢC믹뷰ꎨ웕춨막욱횸쫽뮯춶믹뷰ꎩꆢS믹뷰ꎨ킡맦쒣놾탍막욱횸쫽뮯믹뷰ꎩꆢI믹뷰ꎨ맺볊막욱횸쫽뮯춶믹뷰ꎩꆣ돽쇋짏쫶5훖믹뷰틔췢ꎬ헾뢮펦룃뒴붨튻룶쫊펦폚룶죋헋뮧돖폐죋춶뗄ꆰ뗖폹춨헍탍맺뿢좯ꆱ벴I믹뷰ꎨ맺볊막욱횸쫽뮯춶믹뷰ꎩꎬ뗈뗈ꆣ 뛾ꆢ캴살짧믡놣헏뗄ퟩ횯믺릹쒣쪽ꆣꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ캪맺믡췆볶쇋솽룶뿉릩톡퓱뗄ퟩ횯쒣쪽ꎬ벴ꆰ쏀맺솪냮헾뢮맍풱뫍뻼죋췋택볆뮮ꆱ쒣쪽ꎨTSPꎩ뫍ꆰ솪냮 2
뒢놸뚭쫂뻖ꆱ쒣쪽ꎺ잰튻룶쒣쪽뗄뚭쫂뻖쫇평컥쏻볦횰돉풱ퟩ돉ꎬ평ퟜ춳죎쏼ꎬ뚭쫂뻖훷쾯죎웚4쓪ꎬ솽쏻돉풱죎웚2쓪ꎬ솽쏻3쓪ꎬ럖뇰평닎훚솽풺킭짌횮뫳톡뻙췆볶닺짺ꎻ뚭쫂뻖죎쏼튻룶좫횰뗄횴탐훷죎탐쪹CEO죕뎣뗄횰쓜ꆣ퓚ꆰ솪냮뒢놸뚭쫂뻖ꆱꎨFRꎩ쒣쪽훐ꎬ웤뚭쫂뻖평웟쏻돉풱ퟩ돉ꎬ평ퟜ춳죎쏼ꎬ닎풺춨맽ꎬ죎웚14쓪ꎻ헢룶뿘훆ퟅ좫쏀솪냮뒢놸쾵춳뗄ퟮ룟뻶닟믺릹뗄뻶닟췪좫뛀솢폚맺믡뫍ퟜ춳ꎻ평폚죎웚뷏뎤ꆢ붻듭죎웚뗈쳘뗣ꎨ쎿솽쓪튻듎싖뮻믺믡ꎩꎬ쯼쏇뗄뛀솢탔뇈ꆰ쏀맺솪냮헾뢮맍풱뫍뻼죋췋택볆뮮ꆱꎨTSPꎩ뚭쫂뻖뮹튪듳ꆣ 죽ꆢ붨솢룶죋헋뮧쫇쮽폐뮯룄룯돉냜폫럱뗄맘볼ꎬ캪듋ꎬꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ짨볆쇋죽룶헋뮧퓋ퟷ쒣쪽릩맺믡톡퓱ꎺ 쒣쪽튻ꎺ퓚룶죋헋뮧훐ퟔ풸춶죫쮰뫳릤뗄2%ꎬ떫춬쪱ꎬ뒫춳짧놣쳥쾵뗄룸뢶튪폨틔쿷복ꎬ쿷복뗄뛮뛈쫇뿛돽춨헍뫳룶죋헋뮧훐뷉럑내%뢴샻볆쯣뗄뛮뛈ꎬ벴횻튪헋뮧뗄쫕틦뎬맽%ꎬ릤죋뻍뿉틔헽뎣믱뗃췋택룸뢶ꆣ돽듋횮췢ꎬ뒫춳짧놣훆뛈쎻폐죎뫎뇤뮯ꎻ떫평폚뷰좱뿚볌탸듦퓚ꎬ쯹틔ꎬ죧맻늻룄뇤캴살뗄룸뢶뇪ힼ뫍퓶볓탂뗄춶죫ꎬ퇸샏뷰룸뢶뻍붫볌탸쏦쇙ퟅ쒳훖늻좷뚨탔ꎬ벴듓2030쓪뾪쪼탨튪뛮췢퓶볓짧놣믹뷰뗄쫕죫ꆣ 쒣쪽뛾ꎺ2002쓪1퓂1죕늻떽55쯪뗄릤죋ꎬ듓2004쓪뾪쪼ퟔ풸듓%뗄릤킽쮰훐쳡좡4룶냙럖뗣ꎬퟮ룟뿉듯1000쏀풪ꎻ춬쪱ꎬ퓚춨헍틔짏늿럖ꎬ내2%뢴샻볆쯣뗄룶죋헋뮧훐뗄뷉럑쫽뛮붫뗖쿻뒫춳짧놣훐뗄룸뢶ꆣ뛔30쓪릤쇤뗄릤죋ꎬ붫웤ퟮ뗍룸뢶뇪ힼ쳡룟떽ꆰ욶삧쿟ꆱ뗄120%ꆣ듓2009쓪뾪쪼ꎬ뒫춳짧놣쳥쾵쿂뗄룸뢶붫쪵탐볛룱횸쫽뮯ꎻ떽2075쓪ꎬ룶죋헋뮧돖폐뷰붫듯췲틚쏀풪ꎻ2025쓪훁2054쓪탨튪튻냣쮰쫕틆횧뢶틔놣돖짧놣믹뷰뗄횧뢶쓜솦ꆣ 쒣쪽죽ꎺ퓚헢룶쒣쪽훐ꎬ2002쓪1퓂1죕늻떽55쯪뗄죋풱ꎬ듓2004쓪웰ꎬ쎿쓪뿉틔듓웤짧믡놣헏뷉럑훐쳡좡룶냙럖뗣춶죫룶죋헋뮧훐ꎬ쎿쓪ퟮ룟뿉듯1000쏀풪ꎻ듋췢쎿쓪퓙뛮췢춶죫쮰뫳릤뗄1%ퟷ캪룶죋뷉럑틔ꆰ벤믮ꆱ헋뮧ꎬ헢늿럖뛮췢뷉럑붫틔복쮰뗄탎쪽룸폨늿럖늹훺ꎻ떫쫇뒫춳짧놣훆뛈훐뗄룸뢶튪복짙ꎬ복짙뛮뛈뗄볆쯣랽램쫇ꎬ퓚뿛돽춨헍싊틔뫳룶죋헋뮧훐틔%뢴샻볆쯣뗄뷉럑뛮뛈쓇늿럖ꆣ뛔30쓪릤쇤릤죋뗄ퟮ뗍룸뢶뇪ힼ붫쳡룟떽욶삧쿟뗄100%ꎬ40쓪릤쇤뗄죋붫듯떽111%ꎻ퓚뷱뫳뗄75쓪훐ꎬ탨튪퓶볓쿠떱폚%쮰뢳뗄쫕죫쏅폃폚짧놣ꎻ캪놣횤2034ꆪ2063쓪짧놣믹뷰뗄횧뢶쓜솦ꎬ탨튪듓튻냣쮰쫕훐뷸탐틆횧뢶ꆣ 뇭1 죽훖쒣쪽쳘뗣뇈뷏 룶죋헋뮧 ꆰ쒣쪽튻ꆱ ꆰ쒣쪽뛾ꆱ ꆰ쒣쪽죽ꆱ 쎿쓪4%ꎬ횱훁1%뗄뛮췢뷉럑ꎬ퓙볓짏쎿쓪룶죋헋뮧맦쒣 2% 1000쏀풪ꎬ뻹폫릤%훁1000쏀풪ꎻ뻹폫릤횸횸쫽뮯맒릳 쫽뮯맒릳 횻쫇웕춨뗄2%ꎬ쫇1%뗄뛮췢뷉럑ꎬ춨맽헛뿛쯹뗃뛮췢뷉럑 늻탨튪 럱뷉럑뚼뿉틔 쮰랽쪽폨틔늹훺 폫쎻폐룶죋헋뮧쿠뇈뷏ꎬ룶죋헋뮧듸살뗄쪵볊믘놨퓶뎤% % % 싊 쫇럱뿉틔틅퓹ꆢ샫믩쪱쫇럱쫇 쫇 쫇 뿉틔뷸탐럖룮 쇏살풴ꎺ룹뻝쿂쏦쇏뗚17튳뫍85-86튳뗄죴룉뇭룱쓚죝뇠훆ꎺ President’s Commission to Strengthen Social Security (21, ), Strengthening Social Security and Creating Personal Wealth for All 3
Americans, President’s Commission to Strengthen Social Security. 쯄ꆢꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ샻폃듳솿욪럹싛쫶쇋붨솢룶죋헋뮧뗄훖훖뫃뒦ꆣ죏캪붨솢룶죋헋뮧쫇맛쓮짏뗄뷸늽ꎬ쮼캬짏뗄뇤룯ꎬ탐캪짏뗄룯쏼ꎻ붨솢룶죋헋뮧뗄뷉럑좷뚨탍뗄믽샛훆뿉틔쪹죋쏇펵폐튻뇊닺ꎬ뛸듽폶좷뚨탍뗄쿖쫕쿖뢶훆쯹쳡릩뗄뷶쫇튻룶좨샻ꎬ뇈뷏웰살ꎬ잰헟뇈뫳헟룼폐놣횤ꎬ룼캪낲좫뿉뾿ꎺ1ꎬ룶죋헋뮧뗄닺쯹폐좨붫폐샻폚쳡룟뷰놣헏뗄쓜솦ꎻ2ꎬ쯼폐쳵볾퇓짬돉캪뿉틔볌돐뗄튻뇊닺ꎻ3ꎬ뿉틔캪짧믡죵쫆좺쳥퓶볓뛮췢뗄놣뮤ꎻ4ꎬ뿉틔쪹헋뮧돖폐헟톰쟳믘놨싊룼룟뗄믺믡ꎬ웤풤웚룸뢶믡룟폚쓇킩쎻폐룶죋헋뮧뗄죋ꎻ5ꎬ붫폐샻폚쪵쿖믹뷰믽샛ꎻ6ꎬ붫믡퓶볓맺쏱뒢탮ꎻ7ꎬ붫믡룄짆샍뚯솦닎폫뗄벤샸믺훆ꆣ 컥ꆢꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ짨볆쇋룶죋헋뮧뗄믹놾맜샭맦퓲ꆣ1ꎬ퓚놾쫐뎡짏ꎬ맄샸뎤쿟춶ꎬ뺡솿뇜쏢ꆰ죕뎣뛌쿟붻틗ꆱꎻ2ꎬ퓚막욱ꆢ릫쮾햮좯뫍헾뢮햮좯뗄ퟩ뫏훐뷸탐폅뮯ꎬ틔복짙춶럧쿕ꎻ3ꎬ쿲늻풸틢톡퓱죎뫎붻틗웚좨뗄릤죋쳡릩ꆰ욽뫢뇪ힼ믹뷰ꆱꆣ4ꎬ췋택횮잰늻뗃뷸죫룶죋헋뮧뷸탐쿻럑ꎬ췋택횮뫳튪폐뛠훖뛒쿖닺뗄톡퓱좨샻ꎻ5ꎬ헋뮧훐믩쓚닺퓚샫믩쪱튪욽뻹럖엤ꎬ믩쪷늻ퟣ10쓪뗄엤얼퓚샫믩횮뫳죧맻튪쿫믱뗃잰엤얼뗄룸뢶뻍늻뗃퓙믩ꆣ ꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ랢뇭튻쓪살퓚쏀맺헾뷧뫍톧쫵뷧쿆웰쇋튻뎡탹좻듳늨ꎬ붫놾살틑뺭돖탸쇋벸쓪맘폚쮽폐뮯뗄듳뇧싛췆쿲쇋뚥뗣ꆣ횧돖쮽폐뮯룄룯뗄ꆰ벤뷸엉ꆱ뫍ꆰ랴뛔엉ꆱ헫럦쿠뛔ꎬ폈웤뫳헟뛔ꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ뷸탐쇋잿쇒뗘엺움ꎬ듫듇횮볢뿌ꆢ첬뛈횮볡뻶쫇맽좥벸쪮쓪샯쯹짙폐뗄ꆣ쿲ꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ랢웰릥믷뗄뺭볃톧볒훐뫋탄죋컯훷튪쫇늼슳뷰쮹퇐뺿쯹뗄났쇺ꎨAsron, Hꎩꆢ웕쇖쮹뛙듳톧뗄늼삼뗂ꎨBlinder, Alanꎩꆢ늨쪿뛙톧풺퇸샏뷰퇐뺿훐탄훷죎싪쓋뛻ꎨMunnell, Aꎩ얮쪿뫍늼슳뷰쮹퇐뺿쯹뗄냂뛻퓺룱(Orszag, P)뗈ꎬ쯻쏇쫇떱뷱쏀맺짧믡놣헏쇬폲훐훸쏻뗄뺭볃톧볒ꎬ쮽폐뮯ꆰ랴뛔엉ꆱ뗄훷솦뻼ꆣ퓚ꆰퟜ춳캯풱믡ꆱ릤ퟷ뗄7룶퓂샯쯻쏇솬탸랢뇭쇋죽욪솪뫏쫰쏻뎤컄ꆣ퓚ꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ랢뇭횮뫳ꎬ햾돶살랴뛔쮽폐뮯뗄뺭볃톧볒훷튪쫇싩쪡샭릤톧풺뗄듷뛻쏉뗂ꎨDiamond, Pꎩ뫍냂뛻퓺룱ꎬ헢솽캻맺볊횪쏻뗄뺭볃톧볒뫍짧놣컊쳢볒퓚쏀맺톧뷧쿭폐쪢폾ꎬ쫇쮽폐뮯ꆰ랴뛔엉ꆱ펪생샯뗄훷튪듺뇭죋컯ꎬ쯻쏇퓚냫쓪뗄쪱볤샯튻뿚웸솪뫏쫰쏻킴랢뇭쇋4욪퇐뺿놨룦뫍싛컄ꎨ볻ꆰ닎뾼컄쿗ꆱꎩꎬퟜ볆붫뷼200튳ꎨ쿂쏦볲돆ꆰ듷-냂놨룦ꆱꎩꆣ쏦뛔ꆰ랴뛔엉ꆱ뗄엺움뫍엪믷ꎬ돽쇋폟싛뷧틔췢ꎬ솦훷쮽폐뮯룄룯뗄ꆰ벤뷸엉ꆱ톧헟쏇믹놾짏닉좡쇋돁쒬뗄첬뛈ꎬ훷튪듺뇭죋컯훮죧뿋샯뿋럲ꎨKotlikoff, Lꎩꆢ죸뿋쮹(Sachs,)ꆢ욫폒뗄럑뛻뗂쮹첹(Feldstein, M)뗈훸쏻뗄튻쇷뺭볃톧볒벸뫵뚼쎻폐폨틔믘펦ꎬ놣쫘엉뗄벸듳훇뿢튲놣돖뗍뗷ꎬ폫ꆰ랴뛔엉ꆱ쿠뇈ꎬ폐럝솿뗄싛컄벸뫵쎻폐ꎻ횻폐뇈룱쮹ꎨBiggsꎬAndrew G.ꎩ뗄ꆶ싛ꆰퟜ춳볓잿짧믡놣헏캯풱믡ꆱ뗄잰춾ꆷ쫇캨튻뗄튻욪펦햽탔훊뗄톧쫵싛컄ꆣ뇈룱쮹쫇벤뷸엉훇뿢뾨춼퇐뺿쯹뗄뷌쫚ꎬꆰퟜ춳캯풱믡ꆱ16룶돉풱횮튻ꎻ퓚룃컄훐쯻뛔짏쫶ꆰ랴뛔엉ꆱ뺭볃톧볒튻튻뗣쏻엺움ꎬ퇔듇벤쇒ꎬ믰튩캶짵얨ꆣ 쏀맺톧쫵뷧맘폚ꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ뗄샭싛헹틩훷튪쫇캧죆틔쿂쪮룶랽쏦햹뾪뗄ꎺ1ꎬ붨솢룶죋헋뮧틔뫳쿔좻복짙쇋뒫춳ꆰ짧놣믹뷰ꆱ뗄맦쒣ꎬ쓇쎴짧놣믹뷰쫇럱뿉틔퓶볓맺쏱뒢탮ꆢ복짙릫햮뷸뛸쳡룟짺닺싊ꎿ2ꎬ룄룯틔뫳쏀맺짧놣훆뛈뗄헻쳥횧뢶쓜솦쫇쫜떽쇋퇏훘쿷죵뮹쫇쿠랴ꎿ3ꎬ룟ꆢ훐ꆢ뗍늻춬쫕죫췋택헟뗄풤웚룸뢶뇪ힼ쫇쳡룟쇋뮹쫇듳럹뛈쿷복쇋ꎿ4ꎬ퓚틔붨솢룶죋헋뮧캪훘튪뇪횾뗄쮽폐뮯룄룯훐ꎬ룶죋헋뮧쫇뷶뷶뻟폐ꆰ닺헋뮧ꆱ뗄탔훊뮹쫇뻟폐ꆰ닺헋뮧ꆱ뫍ꆰ햮컱헋뮧ꆱ뗄쮫훘탔훊ꎿ5ꎬ붨솢룶죋헋뮧쫇ꆰ훾뎲튻룶춶뗄쇴컑벦떰ꆱꎬ뮹쫇좨 4
틋횮볆ꎿ6ꎬ룶죋헋뮧뗄탐헾맜샭럑폃쫇럱뿉틔돐쫜뗃웰ꎿ7ꎬ쮽폐뮯룄룯쫇퓶잿쇋뮹쫇쿷죵쇋쏀맺짧놣쳥쾵뗄뿉돖탸탔ꎿ8ꎬ룄룯틔뫳붫튻늿럖뷉럑춶죫떽막욱쫐뎡퓋ퟷ뺿뺹쫇샻듳폚뇗ꆢ뮹쫇뇗듳폚샻ꎿ뛔헋뮧돖폐헟살쮵쫇쫕틦풤웚듳폚잱퓚럧쿕뮹쫇쿠랴ꎿ9ꎬ룄룯뗄죎컱쫇듓헢튻듺죋뾪쪼ꎬ뮹쫇쇴룸뫳듺뷢뻶ꎿ10ꎬ쏦뛔쮽폐뮯룄룯뗄쫀뷧탔뎱쇷ꎬ쫇쮳펦뎱쇷ꎬ뮹쫇룊풸실뫳ꎿ 룅뛸퇔횮ꎬ헹싛뗄붹뗣훷튪쫇틔쿂죽룶랽쏦ꆣ ꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ쫇쿷죵뮹쫇퓶잿쇋닆헾횧뢶쓜솦ꎿ ꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ돆ꎬ짏쫶죽쒣쪽뚼붫뛔쿖탐뒫춳짧놣훆뛈폐튻뚨돌뛈뗄룄짆ꆣ죧맻쒿잰뒫춳훆뛈뷬쪱뗄좱뿚캪췲틚쏀풪ꎨ믲쎿룶릤죋21,000쏀풪ꎩꎬ쓇쎴ꎬ룄룯틔뫳떽2075쓪ꎬꆰ쒣쪽튻ꆱ믽샛뗄닺붫캪췲틚쏀풪ꎬꆰ쒣쪽뛾ꆱ캪췲틚쏀풪ꎬꆰ쒣쪽죽ꆱ캪췲틚쏀풪ꎻ뮻퇔횮ꎬꆰ쒣쪽튻ꆱ붫믡퓶볓췲틚쏀풪ꎬꆰ쒣쪽뛾ꆱ췲틚쏀풪ꎬꆰ쒣쪽죽ꆱ췲틚쏀풪ꆣꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ뛔ꆰ탍돉놾ꆱ뗄볆쯣뷡맻쫇ꎬ볙뚨퓚탍맽돌훐늻샻폃짧놣펯폠뗄뮰ꎬꆰ쒣쪽튻ꆱ뗄탍돉놾쫇췲틚쏀풪ꎬꆰ쒣쪽뛾ꆱ쫇췲틚쏀풪ꎬꆰ쒣쪽죽ꆱ쫇췲틚쏀풪ꆣ뗚뛾룶짨쿫쫇ꎬ죧맻볙짨쒿잰GDP퓶뎤싊%뫍웤쯼쳵볾늻뇤ꎬ짧놣펯폠뿉틔헽뎣볌탸쿂좥ꎬ쓇쎴ꎬꆰ탍돉놾ꆱ뻍믡룼짙튻킩ꎬꆰ쒣쪽튻ꆱ캪췲틚ꎬꆰ쒣쪽뛾ꆱ췲틚ꎬꆰ쒣쪽죽ꆱ뷶캪췲틚ꎬ쯼쏇럖뇰뷶햼GDP뗄%ꆢ%뫍%ꆣ 쮽폐뮯룄룯뗄랴뛔엉죏캪ꎬ잡잡쿠랴ꎬꆰ늼쪲룄룯ꆱ틔뫳컞싛듓뎤웚뾴뮹쫇듓뛌웚살뾴ꎬ평폚짧믡놣헏믹뷰뗄튻늿럖쫕죫틆떽룶죋헋뮧ꎬ쯹틔ꎬ쏀맺짧놣쳥쾵뗄횧뢶쓜솦듓헻쳥짏살쮵붫쫜떽퇏훘뗄쿷죵ꆣ붨솢룶죋헋뮧뗄뷡맻쫇폃룶죋헋뮧쾵춳쳦듺쇋뒫춳짧놣쳥쾵뗄헻쳥ꆰ쯵쮮ꆱꆣ뛔쓇킩톡퓱쇋룶죋헋뮧뗄죋살쮵ꎬ쯻쏇뗄튻늿럖뷉럑놻틆떽쇋룶죋헋뮧샯ꎬ뮻살뗄쫇쯻쏇퓚뒫춳쳥훆쓚퇸샏뷰룸뢶뗄뷸튻늽쿷복ꎬ짧놣쳥쾵뗄닆헾쳵볾늻뿉쓦뗘붫믡뛱뮯ꎬ늢쟒ꎬ짧놣믹뷰ꆰ쇷쪧ꆱ뗄헢뇊믹뷰뗄쫽뛮뎬맽쇋쫜틦죋놻쿷복뗄퇸샏뷰룸뢶뗄쫽뛮ꆣ뻝ꆰ듷ꆪ냂놨룦ꆱ닢쯣(Diamond, P and Orszag, P, July 2002, -6)ꎬ퓚ꆰ쒣쪽뛾ꆱ쳵볾쿂ꎬ뷱뫳뗄75쓪쯹탨튪뗄틆횧뢶쿠떱폚쒿잰짧놣쳥쾵좫늿돠ퟖ뗄2/3ꎬ퓚ꆰ쒣쪽죽ꆱ쳵볾쿂붫탨튪80%ꆣ훸쏻뺭볃톧볒뿋슳룱싼퓚ꆶ얦풼쪱놨ꆷ컄쮵ꎨKrugman, P., 21, June 2002ꎩꎬꆰ훚쯹훜횪ꎬꎨ쏀맺뗄ꎩ짧놣쾵춳쫇튻룶폃쎿튻듺죋뗄릤쮰살횧독잰튻듺죋췋택뗄훆뛈ꎬ죧맻쓪쟡튻듺뗄뷉럑뷸죫쇋룶죋헋뮧ꎬ쓇쎴컊쳢뻍쿔슶돶살쇋ꎺ쮭살횧뢶뷱쳬췋택헟믲샏쓪릤죋뗄룸뢶ꎿ헢쫇튻룶뫜볲떥뗄2-1=1뗄쯣쫵컊쳢ꆣ쯹틔ꎬ쮽폐뮯훆퓬쇋튻룶닆헾뫚뚴ꎬ튪쳮욽헢룶뫚뚴ꎬ뻍뇘탫쿷복룸폨ꎬ믲쳡릩듳솿뗄헾뢮틆횧뢶ꎬ믲헟뛾헟춬쪱쪹폃ꆱꆣ뺭볆쯣ꎬꆰퟜ춳캯풱믡ꆱ붨틩뗄죽룶쒣쪽퓚캴살뗄10쓪훐붫믡듓짧놣믹뷰훐틆룟듯췲틚쏀풪뗄뷰ꆣ 뇭2ꎺꆰ늼쪲캯풱믡ꆱ붨틩뗄죽룶쒣쪽퓚캴살10쓪듓짧놣믹뷰훐틆뗄쟩뿶 ꎨ떥캻ꎺ10틚쏀풪ꎩ 쓪 ꆰ쒣쪽튻ꆱ ꆰ쒣쪽뛾ꆱ ꆰ쒣쪽죽ꆱ 2003쓪 0 0 0 2004쓪 쓪 5
2006쓪 2007쓪 쓪 2009쓪 쓪 2011쓪 쓪 2013쓪 ꆪ2013ퟜ볆 힢쫍ꎺ볙짨100%볓죫헋뮧ꎻꆰퟜ볆ꆱ냼삨룶죋헋뮧뗄쫐횵뫍탅췐믹뷰뗄샻쾢쯰쪧ꆣ 쇏살풴ꎺSSA Chief Actuary Memorandum, Estimates of Financial Effects for 3 Models Developed by the President’s Commission. ꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ쫇쿷복쇋뮹쫇쳡룟쇋퇸샏뷰뗄룸뢶쮮욽ꎿ 늼쪲놨룦죏캪ꎬ룄룯틔뫳죽룶쒣쪽훐늻맜닉좡쓇튻룶ꎬ췋택헟뗄퇸샏뷰룸뢶쮮욽뚼뗃떽쇋뷏듳럹뛈뗄쳡룟ꎬ틔훐뗈쫕죫헟캪샽ꎬ퓚쒣쪽튻쿂쳡룟쇋31%ꎬ 쒣쪽뛾쿂59%ꎬ쒣쪽죽쿂88%ꎻ쿪볻뇭3ꆣ 뇭3 쮽폐뮯룄룯틔뫳퇸샏뷰룸뢶퓶뎤쟩뿶풤닢 ꎨ틔2001쓪쏀풪볆쯣ꎩ 쒣쪽튻 쒣쪽뛾 쒣쪽죽 췋택 뗍릤 훐뗈릤룟릤 뗍릤 훐뗈릤룟릤 뗍릤 훐뗈릤룟릤 쪱볤 헟 헟 헟 헟 헟 헟 헟 헟 헟 2001쓪 7,644 12,624 16,392 7,644 12,624 16,394 7,644 12,624 16,392 2032쓪 10,140 16,944 22,620 11,16015,444 19,680 10,932 17,412 22,620 퓶뎤싊 32% 34% 38% 46% 22% 20% 43% 38% 38% 2052쓪 9,624 16,476 22,428 13,60820,016 24,684 14,122 23,769 31,668 퓶뎤싊 26% 31% 37% 78% 59% 51% 85% 88% 93% 쇏살풴ꎺ룹뻝틔쿂쇏뗚19-21튳뫍87-89튳뇭룱뗄쓚죝뇠훆ꎺPresident’s Commission to Strengthen Social Security (21,), Strengthening Social Security and Creating Personal Wealth for All Americans, President’s Commission to Strengthen Social Security. 힢ꎺ 볙뚨떽2052쓪쪱쒿잰뒫춳훆뛈죔폐횧뢶쓜솦뿉틔싺ퟣ헢죽룶뗈벶ꎨ뗍쫕죫캪8,568쏀풪ꆢ훐뗈쫕죫 14,148쏀풪ꆢ룟쫕죫18,696쏀풪ꎩꆣ쒿잰헢죽룶뗈벶뗄풤볆룸뢶럖뇰쫇11,832쏀풪ꆢ19,536쏀풪뫍25,812쏀풪ꎬ떫뷬쪱퓚2052쓪뷰좱뿚붫캪%ꆣ 떫뺭볃톧뷧쮽폐뮯뗄랴뛔엉웕뇩죏캪ꎬꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ훐붨틩뗄ꆰ쒣쪽튻ꆱ룄룯뗄늽ퟓ늻듳ꎬ쎻폐쪲쎴쳖싛뗄볛횵뫍틢틥ꎻ뛸뛔뫳솽룶쒣쪽살쮵ꎬ퓚뺭맽뺫쯣횮뫳ꎬ죏캪ꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ뗄풤닢쫇듭컳뗄ꎬ뗍ꆢ훐ꆢ룟쫕죫헟뗄죽룶좺쳥뗄퇸샏뷰룸뢶늻쫇쳡룟쇋ꎬ뛸쫇듳럹뛈뗘붵뗍쇋ꆣ볙뚨볒춥훐쮫횰릤뚼퓚2075쓪65쯪췋택ꎬ늢볙뚨룶죋헋뮧룸뢶풤웚뗄볆쯣쾵쫽뗄뺻믘놨싊ꎨ뿛돽탐헾럑폃틔뫳ꎩ쫇%ꎬ뮹볙뚨폐뗍ꆢ훐뫍룟죽ퟩ늻춬쫕죫뗄죋좺ꎻ퓚헢킩볙뚨쳵볾쿂ꎬ쮫횰릤뗄쎿튻룶죋뗄좫늿풤웚룸뢶ꎨ몬룶죋헋뮧훐뗄쓪뷰ꎩ퓚ꆰ쒣쪽뛾ꆱ훐ꎬ뛔ꆰ훐 6
뗈쫕죫ꆱ뗄좺쳥튪복짙20%틔짏ꎻ죧맻쎻폐닎볓룶죋헋뮧쾵춳ꎬ복짙뗄쫽뛮붫듯떽46%ꆣ닎볓룶죋헋뮧뗄ꆰ룟쫕죫ퟩꆱ럲뢾쯹믱뗃뗄룸뢶쿷복쫽뛮튪듳폚ꆰ훐뗈쫕죫ퟩꆱꎬ헢쫇평폚룶죋헋뮧뷉럑뗄1000쏀풪쿞뛮퓬돉뗄ꎻ뛸뛔뗍쫕죫럲뢾살쮵ꎬ웤룸뢶쿷복쫽뛮쿠뛔뷏킡ꆣ퓚ꆰ쒣쪽죽ꆱ훐ꎬ냼삨뛮췢뗄1%뗄뷉럑쯹듸살뗄퇸샏뷰쫕죫ꎬ웤좫늿룸뢶뗄쟩뿶튪뫃튻킩ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ죧맻쎻폐1%뗄뛮췢뷉럑ꎬꆰ뗍쫕죫ퟩꆱ붫튪뗍폚쿖탐룸뢶뇪ힼ뗄9%ꎬꆰ훐뗈쫕죫ퟩꆱ튪뗍12%ꎬꆰ룟쫕죫ퟩꆱ튪뗍폚15%ꆣ쟫쿪볻뇭4ꆣ 뇭4 ꆰ쒣쪽뛾ꆱ뫍ꆰ쒣쪽죽ꆱ쿂2072쓪쮫횰릤럲뢾65쯪췋택쪱쎿죋좫늿 퇸샏뷰풤웚룸뢶쮮욽뇤뮯풤닢 ꆰ뗍쫕죫ퟩꆱ ꆰ훐뗈쫕죫ퟩꆱ ꆰ룟쫕죫ퟩꆱ 쒣쪽 쎿퓂ퟜ볆 ꎨ2002쓪캪15,875ꎨ2002쓪캪35,277ꎨ2002쓪캪56,443쏀풪ꎩ 쏀풪ꎩ 쏀풪ꎩ 뒫춳쳥훆뗄룸뢶 994쏀풪 1,641쏀풪 2,168쏀풪 쒣 - 룸뢶뗄쿷복뛮 -343쏀풪 -753쏀풪 -995쏀풪 + 룶죋헋뮧뗄쓪뷰 456쏀풪 766쏀풪 805쏀풪 쪽 -ꆰ햮컱헋뮧ꆱ뗄뗖쿻 -236쏀풪 -384쏀풪 -397쏀풪 = 좫늿풤웚룸뢶 873쏀풪 1,269쏀풪 1,580쏀풪 뛾 쎻폐룶죋헋뮧쟩뿶쿂뗄뇤뮯 -35% -46% -46% 폐룶죋헋뮧쟩뿶쿂뗄뇤뮯 -12% -23% -27% 뒫춳쳥훆뗄룸뢶 994쏀풪 1,641쏀풪 2,168쏀풪 - 룸뢶뗄쿷복뛮 -221쏀풪 -491쏀풪 -685쏀풪 + 룶죋헋뮧뗄쓪뷰 400쏀풪 890쏀풪 1,173쏀풪 쒣 ꎨ몬1%뗄뛮췢뷉럑ꎩ - ꆰ햮컱헋뮧ꆱ뗄뗖쿻 -174쏀풪 -391쏀풪 -456쏀풪 쪽 - 퓧웚쿷복뗄틲쯘 -99쏀풪 -164쏀풪 -217쏀풪 = 좫늿풤웚룸뢶 900쏀풪 1,485쏀풪 1,983쏀풪 죽 쎻폐룶죋헋뮧쟩뿶쿂뗄뇤뮯 -32% -40% -42% 폐룶죋헋뮧쟩뿶쿂뗄뇤뮯 -9% -10% -9% 폐룶죋헋뮧떫쎻폐뛮췢1%뷉 -21% -24% -27% 럑쟩뿶쿂뗄뇤뮯 쇏살풴ꎺDiamond, Orszag, , 18. June 2002,. 듋췢ꎬ쮽폐뮯랴뛔엉죏캪(Diamond, P and Orszag, 2,P., 18. June 2002, .)ꎬ룄룯틔뫳ꎬ쓇킩늻톡퓱룶죋헋뮧뗄릤죋붫쏦쇙ퟅ퇸샏뷰룸뢶뗄듳럹뛈쿷복ꎬ웤훐ꎬꆰ쒣쪽뛾ꆱ쳵볾쿂뗄룸뢶쿷복룼캪퇏훘ꎬ틔2002쓪35쯪떽2032쓪65쯪췋택헟캪샽ꎬ뷬쪱웤퇸샏뷰룸뢶뇪ힼ폫쿖탐뒫춳훆뛈쿠뇈뷏붫복짙%ꎻ풽췹뫳ꎬ복짙뗄럹뛈풽듳ꎬ샽죧ꎬ2001쓪돶짺떽2066쓪65쯪췋택쪱붫복짙41%ꆣ쟫볻뇭5ꆣ 뇭5 ꆰ쒣쪽뛾ꆱ쿂ꎬ쎻폐톡퓱룶죋헋뮧뗄 퇸샏뷰쿷복쟩뿶ꎨ폫쒿잰훆뛈쿠뇈뷏ꎩ 2002쓪췋택헟뗄쓪쇤 쿷복럹뛈ꎨ%ꎩ 55 0 50 7
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 쇏살풴ꎺDiamond, P. and Orszag, P.,2, 18. June 2002, Table 1,. 평폚뗃떽튻늿럖늹훺ꎬ퓚ꆰ쒣쪽죽ꆱ뗄쳵볾쿂ꎬ쟩뿶짔뫃튻킩ꆣ춬퇹틔2002쓪35쯪뗄캴살췋택풤웚캪샽ꎬ뷬쪱쯻붫뗃떽뗄퇸샏뷰뇪ힼ쿷복뗄럹뛈캪%ꆣ쟫볻뇭6ꆣ 뇭6 ꆰ쒣쪽죽ꆱ쿂ꎬ쎻폐톡퓱룶죋헋뮧뗄 퇸샏뷰쿷복쟩뿶ꎨ폫쒿잰훆뛈쿠뇈뷏ꎩ 2002쓪췋택헟뗄쓪쇤 쿷복럹뛈ꎨ%ꎩ 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 쇏살풴ꎺDiamond, P. and Orszag, P.,2, 18. June 2002, . 웤듎ꎬ쮽폐뮯룄룯붫뛔닐헏뫍쪧좥쮫쟗뗄뛹춯뗄뷲쳹뇪ힼ듸살벫듳뗄뢺쏦펰쿬ꆣ샽죧ꎬ뛔2050쓪뾪쪼뷓쫜닐헏룸뢶뗄죋살쮵ꎬ퓚ꆰ쒣쪽뛾ꆱ쳵볾쿂웤퇸샏뷰룸뢶붫복짙33%ꎬ퓚ꆰ쒣쪽죽ꆱ쿂복짙19%ꎻ떽2075쓪ꎬꆰ쒣쪽뛾ꆱ쿂붫복짙48%ꎬꆰ쒣쪽죽ꆱ캪29%ꆣ짏쫶쿷복럹뛈뛔쪧좥쮫쟗뗄뛹춯살쮵튲쫇튻퇹뗄ꆣ뛔닐헏죋쪿뫍쪧좥쮫쟗뗄뛹춯살쮵ꎬ쯻쏇횮쯹틔벸뫵쎻폐쓜솦살뮺뷢룶죋헋뮧쯹떼훂뗄쯰쪧ꎬ쫇틲캪헢킩죋횰튵짺퇄뷏뛌ꎬ뛔룶죋헋뮧뗄뷉럑폐쿞ꆣ 8
ퟮ뫳ꎬ뛔쓇킩톡퓱룶죋헋뮧뗄죋살쮵튲춬퇹쏦쇙ퟅ룸뢶뗄듳럹뛈쿷복ꆣ죧맻헢킩죋듓룶죋헋뮧훐믱뗃뗄믘놨쓜릻쿱ꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ쯹풤닢뗄쓇퇹ꎬ쿷복뗄럹뛈뿉쓜뻍튪킡튻킩ꎬ떫늻맜죧뫎ꎬ헢킩릤죋뮹쫇붫튪쏦쇙퇏뻾뗄탎쫆ꆣ 퇸샏뷰폫막욱쫐뎡뗄뷡뫏쫇퓶볓쇋럧쿕뮹쫇삩듳쇋쫕틦ꎿ 튻ꆢ뛔쫇럱펦룃붨솢룶죋춶헋뮧늢춶막욱쫐뎡닺짺뗄헹틩 캪뇜쏢쏀맺짧믡놣헏훆뛈뗄웆닺ꎬ벸쓪살맘폚짧놣룄룯헹틩뗄붹뗣틑뺭풽살풽쏷샊뮯ꎬ톧뷧뫍헾뷧쳡돶뗄붨틩듳훂폐죽ꎺ믲쫇쳡룟쮰쫕ꎬ믲쫇복짙룸뢶ꎬ믲ꆰ쪹튻늿럖뷰룟쯙퓋웰살ꆱꆣ퓚ꆰ벤뷸엉ꆱ뾴살ꎬ횻폐뗚죽룶냬램닅쫇뷢뻶컊쳢뗄룹놾돶슷ꎬ벴ꆰ훾뎲튻룶춶뗄쇴컑벦떰ꆱ믲돆ꆰ붨솢튻룶낲좫뗄췋택쇴컑벦떰ꆱꎬ헢룶냬램뻸늻쫇쿱죋쏇컳뷢뗄쓇퇹횻쫇퇓뎤믲췆동쇋짧놣믹뷰뗄쫙쏼뛸틑뗄좨틋횮볆ꆣ쏀맺뗄짧믡놣헏샺살놻돆캪쫇튻룶ꆰ죽쳵췈뗄냥뗊ꆱꎬ벴돽쇋짧믡놣헏틔췢뮹폐릫쮾췋택볆뮮뫍룶죋뒢탮ꆣ떫뛔뫳솽쳵췈뛸퇔ꎬ릫쮾볆뮮뗄뢲룇쏦늻떽쏀맺뻍튵죋뿚뗄50%ꎬ쏀맺볒춥욽뻹뒢탮횻폐1000쏀풪ꎨJohn, ꎩꆣ놻죏캪쫇ꆰ튻샍폀틝ꆱ뗄헢룶캨튻돶슷뗄쫗튪잰쳡쫇붨솢룶죋춶헋뮧ꎬ늢뛔웤믽샛뗄뷰뷸탐춶ꆣ퓚쮽폐뮯룄룯ꆰ벤뷸엉ꆱ뾴살ꎬ붨솢룶죋헋뮧뫍춶놾쫐뎡뗄룄룯좡쿲틑뺭웈퓚쎼뷞ꎬ쯻쏇돉캪ꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ뗄볡뻶횧돖헟ꆣ2002쓪8퓂12죕뗄뮪쪢뛙폊놨퓘컄횸돶ꎨKerry, B. and Rudman, Wꎩꎬ죧맻맺믡쿖퓚춨맽튻룶ꆶ컞쯹ퟷ캪램낸ꆷꎨDo Nothing Actꎩꎬ쓇쎴ꎬ뷱쳬30쯪뗄죋붫살췋택쪱뻍붫복짙췋택뷰16%ꎬ뷱쳬20쯪뗄죋복짙29%ꎬ뷱쳬돶짺뗄죋붫복짙40%ꆣ떫떽2041쓪ꎬ짧놣쮰붫튪쳡룟40%ꆣ뛔폚쓪쟡죋ꎬ쯻쏇룼쾲뮶뗄쫇쎰쿕ꎬ쯹틔쯻쏇퓞돉춶막욱쫐뎡ꎬ샽죧ꎬ2002쓪9퓂20-22죕ꆰ뷱죕쏀맺ꆱ쏱틢닢퇩뗄뷡맻쫇퓞돉1쮽폐뮯룄룯뗄52%ꎬ랴뛔뗄43% ꎻ뛔폚튻킩쏀맺죋살쮵ꎬ퓚뺭볃늻뺰웸뗄쪱뫲ꎬ쯻쏇쾣췻뾴떽뗄쫇뇤룯ꎬ샽죧ꎬ퓚2002쓪11퓂훐웚톡뻙뗄잰튻훜ꎬ룇싥웕쏱틢2닢퇩뗄뷡맻쫇횧돖쮽폐뮯룄룯뗄뇈싊틑듓튻룶퓂잰뗄52%짏짽떽57 ꎻ훐웚톡뻙뗄뷡맻틑뺭돤럖뗘쮵쏷쇋헢룶컊쳢ꆣ ꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ훐붨틩뗄막쫐춶럧쿕컊쳢쫇ퟮ컼틽폟싛뷧힢틢솦뗄튻룶죈쏅뮰쳢ꆣ뛔듋ꎬ폟싛뷧뫍쮽폐뮯룄룯뗄ꆰ랴뛔엉ꆱ뇭쪾돶쇋벫듳뗘떣탄ꆣ냫퓂뾯ꆶ쏀맺햹췻ꆷ쮵ꎨMclntyre, R. Sꎩꎬꆰ죃컒쏇짨쿫튻쿂ꎬ죧맻좫엌뷓쫜쇋늼쪲뗄랽낸냑쯹폐짧놣믹뷰좫늿춶죫떽막쫐믡쫇쪲쎴뫳맻ꎺ1999쓪뗗ꎬ짧놣믹뷰뗄폠뛮캪8930틚쏀풪ꎬ펮폠2340틚쏀풪ꎻ뿉쫇떽2002쓪8퓂훐톮ꎬ볓짏샻쾢쫕죫ퟜ닺튪복짙41%ꆭꆭꆱꆣ ꆶ맺쏱움싛ꆷ퓘컄쮵ꎨMoore, Mattꎩꎬ뗂훝튻룶쏱훷떳틩풱죏캪ꆰ퓚룶죋헋뮧쿂ꎬ췋택죋풱붫놻훃폚뇤뮯컞뎣뗄막쫐짏ꆭꆭꆱꎬ쇭튻룶틩풱룐첾뗀ꎬꆰ뺭맽헢벸룶탇웚뗄막쫐ꎬ컒죏캪룶죋췋택헋뮧쫇튻룶뿉엂뗄뮵훷틢ꆱꆣ 뛔춶막욱쫐뎡뗄헢훖떣탄헐훂쇋살ퟔꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ횧돖헟뗄엺움ꎬ뫳헟죏캪ꎬ막쫐탐쟩쯤좻쎿쳬쎿쓪늨뚯럹뛈뚼뫜듳ꎬ떫듓뎤웚살뾴ꎬ퓚맽좥뗄128쓪샯ꎬ쎿35쓪캪튻룶훜웚뗄쓪믘놨싊캪%ꎬ벴쪹퓚1921쓪횮잰뗄35쓪ퟮ닮뗄훜웚샯ꎬ쓪뻹믘놨싊튲퓚%ꎬ뻍쫇쮵ꎬ뎤웚춶쫇뫜뮮쯣뗄ꎬ짵훁퓚태쫐샯튲쓜놣힡헋뮧ꆣ횻튪쯻뗄춶쫇뛠풪뮯뗄ꎬ뻍뿉틔탒쏢폚쓑ꆣ뮹폐죋컄쮵ꎨGoyburu, 1 틽ퟔwysiwyg://16/ 2 틽ퟔꆰ뮪쪢뛙쪱놨ꆱ2002쓪11퓂21죕ꎻ 9
Aꎩꎬ맘볼쫇ꆰ뎤웚ꆱ뛾ퟖꎬ틲캪듓ꆰ뇪ힼ웕뛻500ꆱ붨솢틔살ꎬ쎿20쓪뻍뿏뚨믡폐쫕틦ꎬ벴쪹퓚1929ꆪ38쓪듳캣믺쪱ꎬ쯼뮹짏짽쇋%ꆣퟔꆰ뇪ힼ웕뛻500ꆱ1926쓪붨솢틔살뗄75쓪샯ꎬ폐51쓪쫇쫕틦듳폚쯰쪧ꎬ쓪뻹쫕틦싊캪7%ꎻ죧맻틔30쓪캪튻룶훜웚뗄뮰ꎬ쫕틦싊듓캴뗸맽%ꆣ뮹폐죋퓘컄쮵ꎨHamilton, Jꎩꎬ막쫐쿂뗸쎻폐쪲쎴뿉엂뗄ꎬ폈웤뛔퇸샏뷰살쮵ꎬ쯼뻟폐ꆰ럧쿕뿘훆ꆱ뗄쳘뗣ꎬ쓇뻍쫇튪ꆰ뎤웚돖폐ꆱꎬ퓙볓짏솢램쿞훆뛌쿟붻틗뗈ꎬ헢퇹뻍뿉틔복짙막쫐늨뚯듸살뗄쯰쪧ꎬ웤쫕틦믡뫃폚뛔헾뢮햮좯뗄춶ꆣ 뛾ꆢ뛔틔췹200쓪살7%막욱춶믘놨싊뗄움맀햹뾪뗄헹틩 ꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ틽웰뗄쇭튻룶ퟮ듳헹싛횮튻쫇뛔캴살막쫐럧쿕뫍믘놨싊뗄풤닢폫움맀ꆣ룃놨룦뛔붨솢룶죋헋뮧틔뫳뿉틔뷏듳럹뛈쳡룟췋택뷰쮮욽뗄풤닢폫럖컶쫇붨솢퓚튻룶볈뚨뗄막쫐믘놨싊뗄믹뒡횮짏뗄ꆣ뷼쪮벸쓪살ꎬ쏀맺듳뛠쫽뺭볃톧볒뛔맽좥100쓪살벴1900쓪ꆪ1995쓪막욱쓪믘놨싊뗄춳볆뷡맻쫇퓚7%ퟳ폒ꎬ1994ꆪ96쓪쏀맺ꆰ짧믡놣헏쫰ꆱꎨSSAꎩ맋컊캯풱믡뗄볒쏇춬틢붫헢룶쫽뻝ퟷ캪움맀막욱쫐뎡뗄믹놾틀뻝ꎬ뫳살ꎬ쏀맺ꆰ짧믡놣헏쫰뺫쯣ퟜ쮾ꆱꎨOCACTꎩ뇣튻횱퇘폃헢룶쫽뻝ꆣ죧맻헢룶쫽뻝뻟폐튻뚨뗄뿉뾿탔ꎬ늢쟒21쫀볍막쫐뗄ퟟ쫆뇤뮯늻듳ꎬ쓇쎴ꎬꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ뛔맺쏱캴살뗄돐억믲헟쮵쏀맺짧믡놣헏쮽폐뮯룄룯뗄짨볆퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏뻍쫇햾뗃힡뷅뗄ꆣ폚쫇ꎬꆰ7%ꆱ뗄뿉뾿탔컊쳢폫캴살21쫀볍뫪맛뺭볃뫍막쫐늻좷뚨탔컊쳢ퟔ좻뻍돉캪뺭볃톧쏇횮볤헹싛뗄붹뗣ꆣ뻍쒿잰살뾴ꎬ쏀맺맘폚헢랽쏦뗄헹싛ퟮ뻟폐맙랽즫닊ꆢퟮ폐쮵럾솦ꆢퟮ뻟폐좨췾탔뫍ퟮ탂뗄뷸햹쫇2001쓪8퓂퓚ꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ킴맽돌훐ꎨ떱쪱ꆰ쇙쪱놨룦ꆱ틑랢뇭ꎩ평ꆰ짧믡놣헏맋컊샭쫂믡ꆱ맙랽퇻쟫뗄죽쏻훸쏻뷌쫚킴뗄뎤듯61튳뗄튻럝놨3룦ꆣ헢룶쳢캪ꆶ풶웚막욱믘놨싊뗄풤닢ꆷ 뗄놨룦럖뇰평잰쏀맺뺭볃퇐뺿뻖퇐뺿풱뾲늼뛻ꎨCampbell, ꎩꆢ싩쪡샭릤톧풺뗄듷뛻쏉뗂뷌쫚뫍쮹첹뢣듳톧뺭볃쾵쿄컄ꎨShoven, ꎩ뷌쫚횴뇊킴ꆣ 맘폚7%믘놨싊뗄뿉뾿탔컊쳢ꎬ뾲늼뛻뫍쿄뛻뛔듋믹놾짏돖뿏뚨뗄첬뛈ꆣ뾲4늼뛻믹놾짏뛔컷룱뛻ꎨSiegel, Jꎩ뗄퇐뺿뷡맻돖뿏뚨뗄첬뛈ꎬ 벴1802쓪ꆪ1997쓪뫍1871쓪ꆪ1997쓪헢솽룶퇹놾쪱웚뗄춳볆뷡맻웤믘놨싊뻹캪7%ꆣ쿄컄뛔듋튲컞틬틩ꎬ늢뮹틽폃쇋컷룱뛻뗄튻킩쇏ꎬ죏캪1926쓪ꆪ2000쓪웚볤뺭맽춨헍뗷헻뫳뗄듳맦쒣놾뮯뗄막욱춶믘놨싊욽뻹쫽횵튪풶풶룟폚7%ꎬ퓚%ퟳ56폒ꆣ 듷뛻쏉뗂퓲죏캪7%뗄쮵램늻첫ힼ좷ꆣ 쯻퓚컄훐늻횹튻듎뗘잿뗷막욱틧볛뻟폐솽룶룅쓮ꎬ튻룶쫇ꆰ쪵쿖뗄막욱틧볛ꆱꎬ벴쿖쪵믘놨싊볆솿뗄볛룱ꎬ튻룶쫇ꆰ틢풸뗄막욱틧볛ꆱꎬ벴춶헟캪돖폐웤쯼닺쯹풸틢붻뮻뗄틧볛쮮욽ꆣ맺햮쫇튻닎뾼쾵ꎬ죧맻맺햮뗄믘놨싊캪3%ꎬ쓇쎴ꎬ뎤웚ꆰ틢풸뗄막욱틧볛ꆱ뻍쫇4%ꎨ7%ꆪ4%ꎩꆣ뫳헟횮쯹틔룟폚맺햮ꎬ쫇틲캪퓚맽좥200쓪샯맺햮뗄믘놨싊듳럹쿂붵뗄뷡맻ꆣ맺햮믘놨싊쿂붵뗄풭틲훷튪쫇춶헟뛔웤잱퓚럧쿕뗄죏쪶뫍탅탄퓬돉뗄ꎬ쓇쪱ꎬ쏀맺쫇룶랢햹훐맺볒ꎬ뮹뺭샺맽맺쓚햽헹ꎬ뛸쿖퓚퓲늻춬쇋ꎬ쯼뗄뺭볃헾훎뗘캻쪹잱퓚럧쿕놻쫂쪵짏뾴ퟷ쫇ꆰ쇣ꆱꆣ쯻틽폃쇋탭뛠뇰죋뗄맛뗣ꎬ쮵폐튻킩엺움헟죏캪7%헢룶쫽뻝룟맀쇋ꎬ쯹틔ꎬꆰ놾컄죏캪룟맀뗄맛뗣쫇뫜쇮죋탅럾뗄ꆱꎬ폚쫇ꎬ쯻붨틩뛔캴살믘놨싊뗄풤닢ퟮ뫃뗄냬램쫇볙짨쯼퓙뗍튻킩ꆣ 3 Social Security Advisory Board (Aug. 2002), Estimating the Real Rate of Return on Stocks Over the long Term. Washington DC. 4 Siegel, Jeremy (1998), Stocks for the long Run, 2nd ed., McGraw-Hill, New York, NY. 5 Social Security Advisory Board (Aug. 2002), Estimating the Real Rate of Return on Stocks Over the long Term. Washington DC. , . 6 듷뛻쏉뗂뗄싛쫶퓚듋횮잰퓸퓚쿂쫶뾯컯짏랢뇭ꎬ놾컄틽폃뗄듷뛻쏉뗂뗄싛쫶뻹돶ퟔ룃뾯컯ꎺDiamond, Peter A.(2000), What Stock Market Returns to Expect for the Future? Social security Bulletin, , . 10
죽ꆢ뛔캴살21쫀볍막쫐ퟟ쫆움맀풤닢벰웤룹뻝뗄헹틩 뛔폚캴살막쫐뗄늻좷뚨탔ꎬ벸뫵쯹폐뺭볃톧볒뗄뾴램쫇췪좫튻훂뗄ꎬ벴뚼죏캪ꎬ21쫀볍뗄막쫐믘놨싊쫇럱뿉틔내맽좥200쓪훐쓪뻹7%폨틔풤닢ꎬ헢쫇쪮럖횵뗃뮳틉뗄ꆣ튻냣살쮵ꎬ뺭볃톧볒쏇죏캪ꎬ21쫀볍쏀맺막쫐뗄ퟟ쿲폐솽룶뿉쓜탔ꆣ뗚튻룶뿉쓜탔쫇믘놨싊뗍폚웤뎤웚쟷쫆쮮욽ꆣ떫쫇ꎬ폐쪱튲뇤뮯쒪닢ꎬ샽죧ꎬ20쓪듺ꆢ60쓪듺뫍90쓪듺헢킩뫃쓪뺰뷓뛸살뗄쫇30쓪듺뗄듳캣믺뫍70쓪뗄캣믺ꆣ뗚뛾룶뿉쓜탔쫇ꆰ쿈ퟟ뗍뫳랴떯ꆱꆣ샽죧ꎬ10쓪듺ꆢ30쓪듺뫍70쓪듺횮뫳뇣돶쿖쇋뫜뫃뗄믖뢴쪱웚ꆣퟜ뛸퇔횮ꎬ떱잰막욱쫐뎡뇭쿖돶살뗄잰쯹캴폐뗄ꆰ놾훊ꆱ쪹죋쏇늻뿉쓜뷶뷶룹뻝샺쪷쒣쪽살풤닢캴살ꎬ벴쒿잰막욱쫐뎡죧듋퓣룢뗄ힴ뿶쫇막욱틧볛뗄뷡릹탔뮬웂ꎬ쯼볈뿉쓜살ퟔ죋쏇뛔럧쿕룅쓮뗄뗷헻ꎬ폖뿉쓜살ퟔ훐킡춶헟죫쫐쏅볷뗄붵뗍ꎬ뗈뗈ꎬ쟩뿶럇뎣뢴퓓ꆣ샽죧ꎬ뾲늼뛻뗄돵늽맀볆쫇7캴살벸쪮쓪샯막욱믘놨싊뫜뿉쓜퓚5ꆪ%횮볤 ꆣ 쯄ꆢ맘폚펰쿬캴살막쫐늻좷뚨탔틲쯘닺짺뗄헹틩 뺭볃톧볒쏇웕뇩죏캪ꎬ횮쯹틔폃샺쪷볇슼뗄7%믘놨싊살풤닢21쫀볍뗄막쫐뻟폐늻뿉뾿탔ꎬ쫇틲캪떱뷱뗄쫐뎡랢짺쇋죽듳뇤뮯ꎺ튻쫇릲춬믹뷰뗄맦쒣삩듳쇋ꎬ쏅볷붵뗍쇋ꎬ폚쫇ꎬ릲춬믹뷰캪킡춶헟뛠풪뮯춶쳡릩쇋믺믡ꎬ돉쇋훐킡춶헟맦뇜럧쿕뫍믱좡맦쒣뺭볃킧틦ퟮ샭쿫뗄뎡쯹ꆣ룹뻝ퟮ탂뗄춳볆ꎬ릲춬믹뷰돖폐뗄쏀맺뺳쓚랢탐막욱뗄20%ퟳ폒ꆣ듋췢ꎬ막욱믹뷰뗄탐헾돉놾믘실럹뛈풶풶듳폚햮좯믹뷰뗄돉놾ꎬ샽죧ꎬ잰헟듓1980쓪뗄%쿂붵떽1997쓪뗄%ꎬ쿂붵럹뛈캪33%ꎬ뛸뫳헟듓%쿂붵떽%ꎬ쿂붵럹뛈뷶캪25%ꆣ릲춬믹뷰뗄짏쫶뇤뮯뫜뿉쓜떼훂막욱믘놨싊룏늻짏틔췹뗄샺쪷볇슼ꆣ뗚뛾룶뇤뮯쫇막욱춶헟뢲룇쏦삩듳쇋ꎬ릫훚볤뷓믲횱뷓뗘춨맽릲춬믹뷰뫍훮죧401ꎨKꎩ뗈췋택헋뮧춶막욱뗄죋쫽폫죕뻣퓶ꎬ뻝춳볆ꎬ쏀맺볒춥춶막욱뗄뇈샽틑뺭듓1989쓪32%짏짽떽1995쓪뗄41%ꆣ듳솿뗄퇐뺿뇭쏷ꎬ춶헟퓶볓틢캶ퟅ럖떣막쫐럧쿕뗄ꆰ벯뫏쓜솦ꆱ튲쿠펦뗃틔쳡룟ꎬ헢붫떼훂뻹뫢럧쿕틧볛쮮욽뻟폐쿂붵뗄쟷쫆ꆣ죽쫇춶헟ꆰ쫐ꆱ뗄쪱볤퇓뎤쇋ꆣ뛔럧쿕퇡뛱돌뛈뗄퓶볓붫펰쿬뛔닺뗄탨쟳ꎬ뷸뛸8떼훂뎤웚돖막쿖쿳뗄듦퓚ꎻ쯹폐헢킩뚼믡펰쿬막욱뗄믘놨싊 ꆣ 쿄컄뗄럖컶뷇뛈뫍잰쳡볙짨쪮럖탂펱ꆣ퓚쿄컄뾴살ꎬꆰ죋쏇룐탋좤뗄컊쳢늻9쫇맽좥랢짺쇋쪲쎴쫂쟩ꎬ뛸쫇퓚캴살뗄50쓪믲75쓪샯붫뿉쓜랢짺쪲쎴ꆱꆣ 막쫐캴살뗄믘놨싊붫뫜뿉쓜늻죧맽좥ꎬ헢훷튪쫇평틔쿂5룶랽쏦뗄틲쯘퓬돉뗄ꎺ튻쫇퓚맽좥뗄20쓪샯ꎬ막욱볛룱뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈뿬폚잱퓚놾뗄볛횵ꎬ헢훖늻뚯닺볛룱룟맀뗄쿖쿳늻뿉쓜퓙돖탸뫜뎤쪱볤ꎻ뛾쫇뻍좫쫀뷧뗄막쫐살뾴ꎬ쏀맺뗄쫐뎡퓚맽좥뗄75쓪샯쪼훕뒦폚잿쫆ꎬ뛸퓚21쫀볍뗄춷50쓪믲75쓪샯ꎬꆰ컒쏇늻펦퓙횸췻쯼ꆱꎻ죽쫇퓚맽좥뗄벸쪮쓪샯막욱춶헟뗄탔훊랢짺쇋뫜듳뗄뇤뮯ꎬ벴췋택뷰헋뮧햼뗄뇈샽풽살풽듳ꎬ뛸퓚틔잰쯼쏇훷튪쫇벯훐퓚ꆰ뻞뢻ꆱ쫖샯ꎬ뛾햽틔살뇤뮯뗄쳘뗣퓲쫇막욱ꆰ쏱훷뮯ꆱ뗄쟷쫆ꆣ쫐뎡풽쏱훷뮯ꎬ쫐뎡훐뗄럧쿕퇡뛱돌뛈뻍믡풽킡ꎻ쯄쫇쿠뛔폚샍뚯솦쫐뎡살쮵ꎬ샏쇤뮯뗄죋뿚뇈샽풽듳ꎬ뛔뷰죚놾뗄탨쟳뻍풽킡ꎻ컥쫇맽좥막욱믘놨싊횮쯹틔뷏룟ꎬ쓇췪좫쫇틲캪햮좯믘놨싊뷏뗍퓬돉뗄ꎬ뛸뷏뗍뗄햮좯믘놨싊훷튪쫇틲캪틢췢뗄룟춨헍싊퓬돉뗄ꎬ쳘뇰쫇60ꆪ70 7 Social Security Advisory Board (Aug. 2002), Estimating the Real Rate of Return on Stocks Over the long Term. Washington DC. . 8 Diamond, Peter A.(2000), What Stock Market Returns to Expect for the Future? Social security Bulletin, , . 9 Social Security Advisory Board (Aug. 2002), Estimating the Real Rate of Return on Stocks Over the long Term. Washington DC. . 쿂쏦맘폚쿄컄뗄싛쫶틽ퟔꆪ52ꆣ 11
쓪듺ꆣ틲듋ꎬ쿄컄룸돶뗄뷡싛쫇ꎬ쯹폐짏쫶틲쯘닺짺뗄펰쿬ꎬ뚼뫜뿉쓜믡떼훂막욱틧볛풶늻죧1926쓪틔살뗄욽뻹쮮욽ꆣ 쏀맺짧믡놣헏쮽폐뮯룄룯뗄잰춾 2002쓪8퓂20죕ꆶ컷퇅춼폊놨ꆷ퓘컄쮵ꎺ1935쓪8퓂14죕ꆶ짧믡놣헏램낸ꆷ떮짺훁뷱헽뫃67쯪쇋ꎬ헢쫇튻룶죋쏼맘쳬뗄볆뮮ꎬ쯼캪튻듺듺쏀맺죋ퟶ돶쇋뻞듳뗄릱쿗ꎻ뺡맜죋쏇뛔ꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ믙폾늻튻ꎬ볻죊볻훇ꎬ떫쯼뇏뺹짦벰떽잧볒췲뮧ꎻ뺡맜톧뷧뛔쯼쳡돶쇋튻킩컊쳢ꎬ떫뇏뺹쯼쫇튻뎡훘튪뗄듳뇤룯ꆣ퓚튻킩죋뾴살ꎬ쯼쫇ꆰ탂헾뗄튻듎룄룯첽쯷ꆱꎬ쫇뛔ꆰ싞쮹뢣믃쿫ꆱ뗄훘쯜ꎬ쫇뛔ꆰ쏀맺횮쏎ꆱ뗄퓙퓬ꎨJohn, ꎩꆣ퓚탭뛠쏀맺죋뾴살ꎬꆰ퇓동룄룯붫믡쪹헾닟톡퓱뗄랶캧뇤뗃룼쿁햭ꆱꎬꆰ짧믡놣헏룄룯췏퇓뗄쪱볤풽뎤ꎬ뛔릤죋뫍췋택죋풱살쮵ꎬ뇘튪뗄톡퓱뻍풽삧쓑ꎬ풽춴뿠ꆱ ꎨMoffit, R. Peterson, P. Estelle Jamesꎩꆣ듓ꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ뗄펰쿬솦살뾴ꎬ 80%틔짏뗄쏀맺죋횧뢶뗄짧놣쮰튪뛠폚쯻쏇뗄솪냮쯹뗃쮰ꎬ뛸짧믡놣헏쮰쫇쏀맺죋횧뢶뗄ퟮ듳뗄떥쿮쮰훖ꎬ짧믡놣헏뗄쯪죫햼솪냮풤쯣뗄23%ꎬ쫇솪냮헾뢮ퟮ듳뗄닆헾볆뮮ꎬ틲듋퓚헢룶틢틥짏붲ꎬ쯼볈쫇쫀뷧짏튻룶ퟮ듳뗄헾뢮볆뮮쿮쒿ꎬ튲쫇튻룶뻟폐쫀뷧펰쿬틢틥뗄룄룯탐뚯ꎻ듓놾훊짏붲ꎬꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ뗄룄룯랽낸늢쎻폐쿱삭쏀맺볒80-90쓪듺뗄룄룯쓇퇹튻늽떽캻쪵탐췪좫뗄쮽폐뮯ꎬ벴쎻폐붫듽폶좷뚨탍뗄쿖쫕쿖뢶훆튻늽룄퓬돉캪뷉럑좷뚨탍뗄믽샛훆ꎬ뻍룶죋헋뮧폫뒫춳쳥훆늢듦헢튻뗣살쮵ꎬꆰ늼쪲놨룦ꆱ쪵볊짏뷶쫇튻룶ꆰ늿럖쮽폐뮯ꆱ뗄룄룯랽낸ꎻ듓쟷쫆짏붲ꎬ늿럖쮽폐뮯튲뫃ꎬ췪좫믽샛훆튲냕ꎬ쏀맺짧믡놣헏훆뛈뗄쮽폐뮯룄룯좡쿲뾴살쫇늻뿉쓦뗄쇋ꎬ훁폚뫎쪱돉캪웤솢램탐뚯ꎬ쓇횻쫇룶쪱볤뗄컊쳢ꆣ (좫컄췪) 훷튪닎뾼컄쿗 Aaron, Henry J., Blinder Alan S., Munell, Alicia, Orszag Peter R.: (1), (23 July, 2001), Perspectives on the Draft Interim Report of the President’s Commission to Strengthen Social Security, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and The Century Foundation. (2), (24 July, 2001), Response to the Co-Chairs of the Commission, The Century Foundation. Aaron Henry J., Munell Alicia, Orszag Peter R.( Revised 3 December, 2001), Social Security Reform: The Questions Raised by the Plans Endorsed by President Bush’s Social Security Commission, The Century Foundation,. Biggs Andrew G. (22. ), Perspectives on the President’s Commission to Strengthen Social Security. The CATO Project on Social Security Privatization, CATO Institute, SSP . Communication from the Board of Trustees ( Mar. 2002), The 2002 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance Trust Funds, Communication from the Board of Trustees, Federal Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance Trust Funds. Cogan, Johm F. and Mitchell, Olivia S.(2002), The Role of Economic Policy in Social Security Reform: Perspectives from the President’s Commission, PRC WP 2002-13 Diamond, Peter, Orszag, Peter: (1), (18. June 2002), Reducing Benefits and Subsidizing Individual Accounts: An Analysis of the Plans Proposed by the President’s Commission to Strengthen Social Security, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and The Century Foundation, 18. (2), (18. June 2002), An assessment of the Proposals of the President’s Commission to Strengthen Social Security, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and The Century Foundation . (3), (July 2002),.A Response to the Executive Director of the President’s Commission to Strengthen Social Security, Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and The Century Foundation, 15. 12
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