슬ꆡ럦ꆢ몫쿾퇇:뎤웚뺭볃돉뎤폫쪵볊믣싊퇝뇤뎤웚뺭볃돉뎤폫쪵볊믣싊퇝뇤3슬ꆡ럦ꆡ몫쿾퇇ꆡꆡ쓚죝쳡튪:냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦뛔튻맺뺭볃돉뎤맽돌훐샍뚯짺닺싊ힷ룏폫쪵볊믣싊뇤뚯횮볤솪쾵쳡돶쇋샭싛췆닢ꆣ놾컄뷩짜냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦볙쮵샭싛쓚죝뫍뺭퇩퇐뺿컄쿗,샻폃맺뇰뷘쏦쫽뻝폫쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝뾼닩웤훷튪뺭퇩횤뻝ꆣ놾컄뮹쳖싛쇋냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦볙쮵뛔퇐뺿죋쏱뇒쪵볊믣싊컊쳢뗄뷨본틢틥ꆣ맘볼듊:냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦ꆡ죋쏱뇒쪵볊믣싊ꆡ뺭볃돉뎤튻ꆢ틽ꆡ퇔튻맺뺭볃퓚뾪럅뮷뺳쿂랢햹,놾뇒쪵볊믣싊ퟷ캪튻룶믹놾볛룱뇤솿,믡틲펦뺭볃돉뎤늻춬뷗뛎쿠뛔뺺헹솦퇝뇤,뛔쓚췢뺭볃맘쾵뫍쎬뛜볓틔뗷뷚ꆣ쯤좻쪵볊믣싊쫜뢴퓓틲쯘펰쿬,냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦볙쮵틀췐샍뚯짺닺싊퓶뎤늿쏅닮틬탔뗈맘볼볙짨,싟벭췆떼돶ힷ룏맽돌믡냩쯦놾뇒쪵볊믣싊짽횵쟷쫆뗄쏼쳢,캪맛달뾪럅뺭볃돉뎤쪱웚쪵볊믣싊ퟟ쫆쳡릩쇋튻룶샭싛쫓뷇ꆣ튻맺뺭볃랢햹맽돌훐놾뇒쪵볊믣싊쫇럱좷쪵듦퓚짽횵쟷쫆?짺닺싊퓶뎤쏷쿔늻춬뗄맺볒쪵볊믣싊뇤뚯폫짏쫶샭싛풤닢쫇럱뻟폐튻훂탔?쯤좻냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦볙쮵뗄싟벭쟥컺퇏쏜,떫쫇뿆톧샭싛뷢쫍솦탨튪뷡뫏뺭퇩횤뻝볓틔움맀ꆣ뾼달냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦볙짨벰웤뺭퇩횤뻝,뛔퇐뺿죋쏱뇒쪵볊믣싊폈웤뻟폐쿖쪵틢틥ꆣ컒맺뺭볃헽뺭샺뿬쯙돉뎤뫍뷡릹뇤뚯쪱웚,춬쪱폫좫쟲뺭볃죚뫏돌뛈늻뛏짮뮯,쿖쪵쳵볾폫냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦볙짨놳뺰듳훂컇뫏ꆣ죧맻헢튻뇪ힼ샭싛쒣탍늻뷶싟벭퇏쏜,뛸쟒쓜뷏듳돌뛈뷢쫍쿠맘뺭퇩쿖쿳,퓲뿉쓜캪맛달죋쏱뇒믣싊뇤뚯쟷쫆쳡릩튻룶폐폃쫓뷇,늢쓜캪폐맘컊쳢헹싛톰쟳릲쪶쳡릩쒳훖럖컶뷨본ꆣ랴횮죧맻냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦볙짨좱짙뺭퇩횤뻝횧돖,퇐뺿죋쏱뇒쪵볊믣싊쮼슷퓲펦폐늻춬톡퓱ꆣ놾컄뷩짜냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦볙쮵샭싛쓚죝,쳖싛쿠맘뇤솿뛈솿쫽뻝뫍뺭퇩퇐뺿컄쿗,샻폃ퟮ탂춳볆쫽뻝뾼닩뫍움맀웤훷튪뺭퇩횤뻝ꆣ뗚뛾늿럖뾼달냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦쳡돶뗄샺쪷놳뺰뫍믹놾쓚죝,뗚죽늿럖뷩짜룃샭싛볙쮵뗄쪵횤퇐뺿컄쿗,뗚쯄ꆢ컥늿럖샻폃ퟮ탂맺뇰쿠뛔볛룱쫽뻝틔벰죴룉뺭샺쇋뷏뿬ힷ룏탍뗄뺭볃쳥쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝,맛달럖컶냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦뺭퇩횤뻝,뗚쇹늿럖룅삨뫍움싛놾컄쓚죝뫍틢틥ꆣ뛾ꆢ냍삭죸튻죸뛻즭킧펦샭싛닺짺뗄놳뺰뫍믹놾쓚죝냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦볙쮵쫇퓚20쫀볍60쓪듺폐맘쏀맺맺볊쫕횧쪧뫢컊쳢쳖싛훐쳡돶뗄,웤횱뷓쓚죝쫇뷒쪾릺싲솦욽볛ퟷ캪뻹뫢믣싊뷢쫍샭싛듦퓚쾵춳탔욫닮ꆣ짏쫀볍50쓪듺잰뫳쪮뛠쓪,냩쯦컷얷ꆢ죕놾뗈맺볒뺭볃뿬쯙퓶뎤뫍쏀맺뺭볃맺볊뺺헹솦쿠뛔쿂붵,쏀맺맺볊쫕횧쪧뫢뫍맙3ꆡ슬럦ꆢ몫쿾퇇,놱뺩듳톧훐맺뺭볃퇐뺿훐탄,폊헾뇠싫100871,뗧ퟓ탅쿤:fenglu@ꆣ룐킻훬볒쿩뷌쫚ꆢ뫺듳풴뷌쫚폫놾컄뗚튻ퟷ헟쳖싛놾컄돵룥짦벰뗄쿠맘볆솿럖컶컄쿗,룐킻쇵ꆢ쳆뷜퓚놾컄퇐뺿늻춬뷗뛎냯훺헻샭늿럖쫽뻝,룐킻쓤쏻움퓄죋뗄탞룄붨틩ꆣퟷ헟뛔싛컄뿉쓜듦퓚뗄쪧컳뢺퓰ꆣ4' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
2006쓪뗚7웚랽뒢놸복짙ꋙ,돉캪떱쪱쏀맺톧쫵뷧뫍헾닟늿쏅뗄튻룶죈뗣퇐뺿컊쳢ꆣꋚ튻훖맛뗣죏캪맺볊쫕횧쪧뫢놾훊퓚폚쏀풪믣싊룟맀,늢샻폃릺싲솦욽볛샭싛뫍떥캻샍뚯돉놾쫽뻝닢쯣쏀풪룟맀돌뛈,평듋퓙듎틽랢폐맘릺싲솦욽볛ퟷ캪뻹뫢믣싊샭싛뻖쿞탔뗄헹싛ꆣ냍삭죸뷌쫚1964쓪랢뇭쳢캪ꆶ릺싲솦욽볛뷌쳵:퓙뾼달ꆷ싛컄,뷒쪾릺싲솦욽볛ퟷ캪뻹뫢믣싊뻶뚨샭싛뻟폐쓚퓚쾵춳욫컳(Balassa,1964)ꆣ죸뛻즭뷌쫚춬쓪랢뇭싛컄닻쫶샠쯆맛뗣(Samuelson,1964)ꆣꋛ냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦볙쮵평듋헽쪽쳡돶ꆣ냍삭죸싛컄볙짨랴펦뺭볃ퟜ솿뷡릹뗄ꆰ튻삺ퟓ짌욷ꆱ냼삨ꆰ뿉쎳틗욷ꆱ뫍ꆰ늻뿉쎳틗욷ꆱꆣ뿉쎳틗욷늿쏅맺볊샍뚯짺닺싊닮틬뷏듳,벴쟮맺짺닺싊풶뗍폚뢻맺;늻뿉쎳틗늿쏅샍뚯짺닺싊맺볊닮틬뷏킡ꆣ맺볊쎳틗쪹뿉쎳틗욷볛룱듳쳥뿉뇈,쟮맺쿠뛔폚맺췢뫜뗍뗄샍뚯짺닺싊,떼훂룃늿쏅쿠뛔폚맺췢뫜뗍뗄릤쮮욽ꆣ좻뛸튻맺쓚늿샍뚯솦늿쏅볤쇷뚯탔뛔솽늿쏅릤닺짺쟷춬탔펰쿬,뷡맻늻뿉쎳틗늿쏅쯤좻짺닺싊폫맺췢닮뻠늻듳,평폚릤폫뿉쎳틗늿쏅듳쳥뻹뫢튲풶풶뗍폚맺췢쮮욽,듓뛸쪹룃늿쏅볛룱튲쿠펦뗍폚맺췢쮮욽ꆣ평폚튻삺ퟓ닺욷볛룱냼몬솽늿쏅닺욷,쟮맺럇쎳틗욷볛룱쿠뛔폚맺췢뷏뗍,떼훂튻냣컯볛쿠뛔폚맺췢뷏뗍ꆣ평듋뿉볻,냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦냼몬틔쿂맘볼볙뚨뫍췆싛:튻쫇뛔뿉쎳틗욷맺볊붻뮻늻듦퓚뇟뺳뇚생,틲뛸듳쳥싺ퟣ튻볛뚨샭쳵볾,좻뛸ꆰ컞탎닺욷뫍놾쇷뚯늻뷸죫맺볊쫕횧ꆱ(Balassa,1964,586튳),벴볙뚨럾컱늻뿉쎳틗,늢쟒늻뾼싇놾쇷뚯뛔맺볊쫕횧펰쿬ꆣ뛾쫇짺닺싊쮮욽닮틬뗄늿쏅럖늼쳘뗣,뿉쎳틗욷샍뚯짺닺싊쳡짽뿉쓜탔뇈뷏듳,틲뛸랢듯맺볒폫랢햹훐맺볒뿉쎳틗늿쏅샍뚯짺닺싊닮틬풶풶듳폚늻뿉쎳틗욷늿쏅ꆣ죽쫇퓚떥룶짺닺튪쯘뫍룟뛈뺺헹쫐뎡뷡릹볙짨쿂,쎳틗욷늿쏅샍뚯뇟볊닺욷뻶뚨릤뫍볛룱ꆣ쯄쫇맺쓚샍뚯솦쫐뎡쓚퓚헻뫏탔,놣횤솽늿쏅릤듳쳥쿠뗈ꆣ룸뚨틔짏뷡릹탔볙뚨,뢻맺폫쟮맺횮볤볛룱쮮욽뇘좻믡돶쿖쾵춳닮틬,릺싲솦욽볛ퟷ캪뻹뫢믣싊샭싛튲뻍듦퓚쾵춳욫컳ꆣ냍삭죸맛달12룶맺볒1960쓪폐맘뇤솿쫽뻝,랢쿖틔죋뻹쫕죫듺뇭뗄짺닺싊쮮욽폫쿠뛔볛룱횮볤듦퓚ퟅ쿔훸헽쿲솪쾵,캪샭싛볙쮵쳡릩쇋돵늽뺭퇩횧돖(Balassa,1964,ꆪ590)ꆣ볈좻쳘뚨쪱뗣짏짺닺싊쮮욽늻춬맺볒쿠뛔볛룱늻춬,룸뚨쪱웚쓚늻춬맺볒샍뚯짺닺싊뗄샺쪱탔뇤뚯믡엉짺돶웤쿠뛔볛룱쿠펦뇤뚯ꆣ냍삭죸퓚뷢쫍쿠뛔볛룱맺볊쾵춳닮틬뗄춬쪱,튲냼몬쇋뛔늻춬맺볒짺닺싊폫쿠뛔볛룱뇤뚯횮볤솪쾵뗄췆싛ꆣ냍삭죸퓚싛컄훐맛달1953ꆪ1961쓪쏀맺뫍웤쯼쇹룶맺볒(뇈샻쪱ꆢ램맺ꆢ뗂맺ꆢ틢듳샻ꆢ펢맺ꆢ죕놾)훆퓬튵샍뚯짺닺싊쫽뻝ꆢ쎳틗욷볛룱(WPI)ꆢGNP춨쯵횸쫽,랢쿖샍뚯짺닺싊퓶뎤뷏뿬맺볒죧죕놾ꆢ램맺ꆢ틢듳샻뗈뗄GNP춨쯵횸쫽쿠뛔폚WPI횸쫽쿔훸룟폚쏀맺(ꆪ595)ꆣ죧맻짺닺싊뇤뚯믡떼훂쿠뛔볛룱돖뻃탔뇤뚯,틀뻝쿠뛔릺싲솦욽볛뻶뚨쏻틥믣싊뗷헻폐뿉쓜듦퓚쾵춳욫컳ꆣ쯤좻냍삭죸샭싛쒣탍볙뚨쎳틗욷늿쏅샍뚯짺닺싊폫릤춬뇈샽뇤뚯,떫퓚럖컶웤샭싛볙짨뚯첬몬틥쪱,럖뇰쳖싛쇋릤뛔짺닺싊돥믷뗄죽훖뿉쓜랴펦ꆣ뗚튻훖볙짨쟩뿶쫇뿉쎳틗늿쏅샍뚯짺닺싊퓶뎤떫믵뇒릤늻뇤,뷡맻짺닺싊퓶뎤뷏뿬뗄뿉쎳틗늿쏅볛룱쿂붵,떫쫇늻뿉쎳틗늿쏅볛룱늻뇤,떼훂럇쎳틗욷쿠뛔볛룱짏짽럹뛈,튻냣컯볛쿂붵떫럹뛈뗍폚뿉쎳틗욷볛룱붵럹ꆣ뗚뛾훖쟩뿶쫇믵뇒릤ꆢ샻죳폫샍뚯짺닺싊돉뇈샽퓶뎤,쎳틗욷볛룱늻뇤,떫쫇짺닺싊퓶뎤럹뛈뷏뗍뗄럇쎳틗욷ꋙ죧쏀맺믆뷰뒢놸퓚1957쓪12퓂떽1961쓪6퓂볤복짙쇋28%(Ingram,1962,)ꆣꋚ쏀맺맺믡뺭볃캯풱믡1962쓪랢뇭쳢퇐뺿놨룦벯,믣벯쪮뛠캻볒뛔헢튻컊쳢럖컶맛뗣,볻JointEconomicCommittee,USCongress,1962ꆣꋛ퓚떱쪱늼샗뛙2즭쇖맺볊믵뇒쳥쾵뮷뺳쿂,쏀풪믣싊헾닟뗷헻뻟폐잣튻랢뛸뚯좫짭뗄쏴룐탔,떱쪱쏀맺헾뢮폐맘헢튻컊쳢뗄맙랽솢뎡늢늻뷓쫜믣싊룟맀뗄에뛏ꆣ좻뛸짏쫶쏀맺맺믡뺭볃캯풱믡놨룦벯폐죽욪싛컄쏅듓믣싊룟맀뷇뛈뾼달헢튻컊쳢,웤훐맾런듳톧뷌쫚Houthakker(1962)싛컄샻폃릺싲솦욽볛풭샭닢쯣믣싊룟맀돌뛈,돉캪냍삭죸뫍죸뛻즭뷌쫚싛컄횱뷓엺움뛔쿳ꆣ5' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
슬ꆡ럦ꆢ몫쿾퇇:뎤웚뺭볃돉뎤폫쪵볊믣싊퇝뇤늿쏅릤짏짽럹뛈뎬맽짺닺싊짏짽럹뛈,떼훂헢튻늿쏅쿠뛔볛룱짏짽틔벰튻냣컯볛짏짽ꆣ뗚죽훖쟩뿶쫴폚훐볤ힴ첬,짺닺싊ힷ룏튻랽쏦틽죫늻뿉쎳틗욷볛룱뗄짏짽톹솦,쇭튻랽쏦뛔돶뿚욷뫍뷸뿚쳦듺욷틽죫볛룱쿂붵톹솦(P1593)ꆣꋙ헢쪱맺쓚늻뿉쎳틗욷쿠뛔볛룱튲믡짏짽,떫쫇튻냣컯볛뇤뚯랽쿲듦퓚늻좷뚨탔ꆣBalassa(1964)쎻폐횱뷓쳖싛죽훖릤뗷헻볙짨쯹낵몬뗄춨맽쏻틥믣싊뇤뚯,쪵쿖췢늿쪵볊믣싊뗷헻뗄뿉쓜탔ꆣ죧맻뾼싇떽뻹뫢믣싊럖컶뎡뫏춨뎣탨튪볙짨뗄맺볊쫕횧욽뫢쳵볾,늻쓑뾴돶냑쏻틥믣싊ퟷ캪뗷뷚뇤솿폫냍삭죸럖컶뗄쪵훊뺫짱늢컞쎬뛜,늢쟒룼뇣폚좫쏦샭뷢췢늿쪵볊믣싊뗄뻟쳥뗷헻믺훆,틲뛸뿉틔춨맽틽죫맺볊쫕횧욽뫢풼쫸뫍쏻틥믣싊뿉뇤뚯쳵볾뛔냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦쳡돶튻훖췘햹뇭쫶ꆣ헢쪱퓚릤늻뇤뗄볙짨쟩탎쿂,뿉쎳틗욷늿쏅볛룱쿂붵톹솦믡쳡짽룃늿쏅닺욷맺볊뺺헹솦,떼훂맺볊쫐뎡럝뛮늻뛏삩듳뫍쎳틗펯폠늻뛏퓶볓,평듋엉짺뗄맺볊쫕횧쪧뫢톹솦ퟮ훕믡떼훂쏻틥믣싊뫍쪵볊믣싊짽횵ꆣ퓚뗚뛾훖볙짨쿂,뿉쎳틗늿쏅떥캻샍뚯돉놾뫍볛룱늻뇤,늻뿉쎳틗욷릤짏짽믡떼훂튻냣컯볛짏짽,춬쪱쪵쿖놾뇒쓚늿뫍췢늿쪵볊믣싊뗄짽횵ꆣ퓚뗚죽훖훐볤ힴ첬쿂,췢늿쪵볊믣싊춨맽맺쓚컯볛뫍쏻틥믣싊짽횵ퟩ뫏뇤뚯살쪵쿖짽횵ꆣ죽ꆢ쫽뻝쇏뫍쪵횤퇐뺿룅쫶쯤좻듦퓚헹싛ꋚ,냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦뗄럖컶볛횵놻톧쫵뷧맣랺뷓쫜,돉캪떱듺맺볊뺭볃톧뫍뾪럅뫪맛뺭볃톧뷌뿆쫩뗄뇪ힼ쒣탍(SachsandLarrian,1992;뿋슳룱싼ꆢ냂늮쮹램뛻뗂,1998)ꆣ쪵횤볬퇩쫗쿈튪뛈솿룷맺쪵볊믣싊틔벰럖늿쏅뗄샍뚯짺닺싊쫽뻝ꆣ쪵볊믣싊뿉샻폃솽샠쫽뻝볓틔뛈솿ꆣ튻쫇횱뷓틀뻝쪵볊믣싊뚨틥(PdΠEPf),샻폃룷맺쏻틥믣싊뫍컯볛쫽뻝볓틔뛈솿,IMF뗈맺볊믺릹랢뇭뗄룷맺믣싊뫍컯볛쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝,뿉폃살볆쯣쪵볊믣싊ꆣ뛾쫇PennTable맺볊쫕죫뇈뷏쫽뻝틔벰쫀뷧틸탐헻샭랢뇭뗄샠쯆쫽뻝,웤훐냼몬룷맺쿠뛔볛룱탅쾢,튲뿉틔ퟷ캪쪵볊믣싊뗄춳볆뛈솿쫽뻝ꆣꋛ럖늿쏅샍뚯짺닺싊쫽뻝퓲듦퓚뷏뛠삧쓑ꆣ쏀맺샍릤뻖춳볆쇋쪮벸룶맺볒훆퓬튵늿쏅뗄샍뚯짺닺싊쫽뻝,OECD춳볆쇋튻킩맺볒럖탐튵뗄샍뚯짺닺싊쫽뻝,좻뛸춳볆뛔쿳뚼쫇랢듯맺볒,뫜짙짦벰랢햹훐맺볒뫍뗘쟸ꆣ퇇훞랢햹틸탐춳볆쇋퇇훞맺볒뫍뗘쟸럖탐튵뗄샍뚯짺닺싊쫽뻝,떫룷맺춳볆탐튵뮮럖뗄랽램늻춬ꋜ,쪱볤횻쓜짏쯝떽1987쓪ꆣ샍뚯짺닺싊늿쏅춳볆쫽뻝믱뗃뗄쿞훆탔,릹돉볬퇩냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦뗄쓑쳢횮튻ꆣ폐맘헢튻컊쳢뗄쪵횤볬퇩퇐뺿듳쳥닉폃죽훖랽램ꆣ튻쫇샻폃뷘쏦쫽뻝,춨맽럖컶룸뚨쪱뗣늻춬맺볒쿠뛔볛룱럖늼탎첬살뾼달냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦뷢쫍솦ꆣ평폚짏쫶샍뚯짺닺싊쫽뻝뿉믱뗃탔랽쏦뗄삧쓑,헢샠퇐뺿튻냣샻폃죋뻹쫕죫듺뇭쿠뛔샍뚯짺닺싊,맛달뫍맀볆늻춬뺭볃쳥죋뻹쫕죫폫쪵볊믣싊횮볤솪쾵ꆣEdwards뫍Savastano(1999,)쇐뻙뗄15욪쿠맘쪵횤퇐뺿컄쿗,뻸듳늿럖닉폃헢샠랽램ꆣ놾컄뫳쏦붫샻폃ퟮ탂쫽뻝뷸탐샠쯆볬퇩,늢ퟐ쾸뷢뛁헢샠럖컶뷡맻벰웤뺭볃몬틥ꆣ뛾쫇샻폃쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝럖컶쳘뚨맺볒뺭볃돉뎤맽돌훐냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦뇭쿖ꆣ샽죧Hsieh(1982)춨맽럖컶1954ꆪ1976쓪죕놾뫍뗂맺뛔훷튪쎳틗믯냩쿠뛔샍뚯짺닺싊닮틬뗄쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝,랢쿖냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦쓜쿔훸뷢쫍헢튻쪱웚죕풪뫍십뿋폐킧쪵볊믣싊뗄뇤뚯ꆣMarston(1997)샻폃1973ꆪ1983쓪볤죕놾뫍쏀맺늿쏅샍뚯짺닺싊쫽뻝,랢쿖평폚죕놾뿉쎳틗늿쏅샍뚯짺닺ꋙ헢쪱뿉쎳틗늿쏅볛룱쓜럱쿂붵틔벰쿂붵럹뛈,늻뷶폫릤퓶뎤럹뛈폐맘,뮹좡뻶폚룃맺쫴폚ꆰ킡맺ꆱ뮹쫇ꆰ듳맺ꆱ뗈틲쯘ꆣꋚ죧Officer(1974,1976a,1976b)뛔냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦볙쮵쳡돶엺움,Edwards뫍Savastano(1999)뛔헢튻샭싛쳡돶뷏뛠훃틉,헢샠컄쿗쟣쿲폚룼뛠뿏뚨릺싲솦욽볛볙쮵뗄뫏샭탔뫍뷢쫍솦ꆣꋛ틀뻝잰쏦쳖싛,쿠뛔볛룱폫쪵볊믣싊놾훊짏튻훂ꆣꋜ죧튻킩맺볒뗄릤튵ퟷ캪헻쳥뫋쯣,쎻폐떥뛀쇐돶훆퓬튵쫽뻝ꆣ6' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
2006쓪뗚7웚싊쿠뛔뿬쯙퓶뎤,튪놣돖쏀맺뿉쎳틗늿쏅뺺헹솦뗄듳쳥늻뇤,뻍탨튪죕놾릤듳럹짏짽믲쫇쏀풪듳럹뇡횵,쮵쏷짺닺싊쿠뛔ힷ룏,뛔죕풪쿠뛔폚쏀풪뗄쪵볊믣싊짽횵쟷쫆뻟폐쫽솿뷢쫍ퟷ폃(뗚28ꆪ29ꆢ2튳)ꆣItoetal.(1997)뇈뷏APEC돉풱뺭볃쳥1973ꆪ1995쓪죋뻹GDP퓶뎤싊뫍쪵볊믣싊뇤뚯맘쾵,뾼달쫇럱듦퓚냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦,늢럖컶믺킵욷돶뿚퓚ퟜ돶뿚훐쯹햼뇈훘뗄뇤뚯뛔냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦뗄횸뇪틢틥ꆣChinn(1997)럖컶냼삨훐맺ꆢ죕놾ꆢ첨췥ꆢ쏀맺퓚쓚뗄쪮룶퇇첫뺭볃쳥1970ꆪ1992쓪쫽뻝,랢쿖쿠뛔샍뚯짺닺싊ꆢ헾뢮횧돶햼GDP뇈훘ꆢ쪵볊쪯폍볛룱뗈틲쯘뛔쪵볊믣싊뇤뚯뻟폐튻뚨돌뛈뗄뷢쫍ퟷ폃,떫쫇훐맺ꆢ첩맺뗈룟쯙퓶뎤맺볒릹돉쇋샽췢(뗚5ꆢ6ꆪ7ꆢ16튳)ꆣ죽쫇맀볆믹놾뻹뫢쪵볊믣싊뗄볆솿퇐뺿,튲뻟폐볬퇩냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦뗄몬틥ꆣ쿠맘컄쿗쳖싛믹놾뻹뫢쪵볊믣싊뻶뚨틲쯘,춨뎣냼삨듺뇭냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦뗄뇤솿ꆣ죧Williamson(1983,)죏캪죽ퟩ훷튪틲쯘펰쿬뎤웚뻹뫢쪵볊믣싊,웤훐뗚튻ퟩ틲쯘뻍쫇늻춬맺볒짺닺싊뗄퓶뎤ꆣEdwards(1989)뛔랢햹훐맺볒뻹뫢쪵볊믣싊뻶뚨틲쯘뗄쾵춳쳖싛튲냼삨짺닺싊늿쏅닮틬뗄틲쯘ꆣMontiel(1999,pp,238ꆪ240)냑뻹뫢쪵볊믣싊뻶뚨틲쯘럖캪솽샠,튻쫇폫냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦쿠솪쾵뗄짺닺싊쿠뛔퓶뎤뗈릩룸랽쏦뗄틲쯘,뛾쫇늻춬늿쏅탨쟳쫕죫떯탔뗈탨쟳랽쏦뗄믹놾틲쯘(demand2sidefundamentals)뗈ꆣ헢샠퇐뺿퓚뷸탐뻹뫢쪵볊믣싊볆솿쒣탍맀볆쪱,춨뎣닉폃죋뻹쫕죫믲죋뻹GDP횮샠횸뇪듺쳦샍뚯짺닺싊,뷡맻폐뗄퇐뺿랢쿖룃뇤솿뛔쪵볊믣싊뻟폐쿔훸뷢쫍ퟷ폃,튲폐뗄퇐뺿뗃돶맀볆쾵쫽늻쿔훸짵훁럻뫅폫샭싛볙짨쿠랴뗄뷡맻(Edwards,1989,뗚141튳)ꆣ뷼쓪돶쿖늻짙듓냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦뷇뛈쳖싛죋쏱뇒쪵볊믣싊뗄컄쿗ꆣꋙ웤훐폐뗄닉폃뇈뷏볲싔움싛랽쪽,쳡돶헢튻쒣탍뿉틔뷢쫍믲늻쫊폚뷢쫍죋쏱뇒믣싊뇭쿖(폡쏈,2001;맘횾탛,2002);폐뗄샻폃맺뇰뷘쏦쫽뻝맀볆냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦랽돌,쳖싛뷼쓪죋쏱뇒쪵볊믣싊쫇럱뗍맀쪧뫢컊쳢(Frankel,2004);뮹폐뗄훘탂뇭쫶냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦볙쮵쒣탍,춨맽럖컶컒맺뛾풪뺭볃뷡릹놳뺰쿂믣싊퇝뇤쳘뗣,쳡돶죋쏱뇒쪵볊믣싊펦떱쪵탐ꆰ벼쫵뷸늽탔뇡횵ꆱ헾닟(퇮뎤붭,2002)ꆣퟷ캪뛔짏쫶컄쿗뗄늹돤,놾컄뾼닩냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦볙쮵훷튪뺭퇩횤뻝,틔쟳룼뫃뗘죏쪶헢튻샭싛뛔럖컶죋쏱뇒믣싊뛔쿳뗄뷨본틢틥뫍뻖쿞탔ꆣ쯄ꆢ샻폃뛠맺뷘쏦쫽뻝볬퇩냍삭죸튻죸뛻즭킧펦냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦볙짨뿉쎳틗늿쏅샍뚯짺닺싊ꆰ쿠뛔쿠뛔ꆱ퓶뎤펰쿬쪵볊믣싊,평폚퓚뛠맺퇹놾퇐뺿쟩뿶쿂,믱뗃뿉쎳틗늿쏅샍뚯짺닺싊쫽뻝췹췹듦퓚뷏뛠삧쓑,틲뛸폃죋뻹쫕죫횸뇪ퟷ캪짺닺싊쳦듺횸뇪ꆣ뻍뺭볃뎤웚랢햹뗄쪵훊맘쾵뛸퇔,죋뻹쫕죫쳡룟좡뻶폚샍뚯짺닺싊쳡짽,틲뛸헢튻쳦듺랽램폐웤뫏샭탔ꆣ좻뛸헢튻뇤춨뒦샭낵몬볙짨폫쿖쪵잱퓚뗄늻튻훂,튲믡떼훂쪵횤럖컶뗄쿠펦컳닮ꆣ룸뚨짏쫶샭뷢,놾뷚샻폃ퟮ탂맺뇰쪵볊믣싊뫍죋뻹쫕죫쫽뻝,맛달냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦뗄뺭퇩뷢쫍솦ꆣ춼1놨룦쇋2004쓪좫쟲130룶뺭볃쳥뗄쪵볊믣싊틔벰폃믣싊뮻쯣뗄쏀풪죋뻹쫕죫ꆣ쫽뻝쿔쪾뛾헟횮볤뻟폐쏷쿔솪쾵,듳쳥탎첬쫇퓚쫕죫뷏뗍쪱쪵볊믣싊뷏뗍,쫕죫뷏룟쪱쪵볊믣싊뷏룟ꆣ춼훐횱쿟쫇퇹놾맛닢횵뗄쿟탔쟷쫆맀볆쿟,R2횵쿔쪾룷뺭볃쳥쪵볊믣싊닮틬풼냋돉퓚춳볆짏쓜놻죋뻹쫕죫뇤솿쯹뷢쫍,죋뻹쫕죫뇤솿맀볆쾵쫽룟뛈쿔훸,t횵캪22195ꆣꋚ쯤좻뛠맺뷘쏦쫽뻝헻쳥쿔쪾냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦맘쾵,좻뛸쫽뻝튲쳡쪾헢튻맘쾵퓚늻춬쫕죫쟸뛎듦퓚ퟅ쿔훸닮뇰,퓚춳볆짏뇭쿖캪뿉쓜듦퓚틬랽닮컊쳢ꆣ춼2놨룦짏쫶솽룶맀볆랽돌닐닮,ꋙ슬럦(2006)쾵춳뷩짜움싛쇋헢튻쇬폲컄쿗ꆣꋚ슬럦ꆢ몫쿾퇇(2006)뮹놨룦쇋짏쫶퇹놾쫽뻝뛔쫽횵쒣탍맀볆,춬퇹퓚헻쳥탎첬짏쿔훸횧돖냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦볙쮵ꆣ7' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
슬ꆡ럦ꆢ몫쿾퇇:뎤웚뺭볃돉뎤폫쪵볊믣싊퇝뇤춼1ꆡ룷뺭볃쳥죋뻹쫕죫폫쪵볊믣싊(2004)힢:죋뻹쫕죫쫇틔믣싊뮻쯣쯹뗃쫽뻝,쪵볊믣싊쫇평룷뺭볃쳥죋뻹믣싊뫢솿GNP돽틔죋뻹PPP볆쯣GNP쯹뗃쿠뛔볛룱ꆣ릲130룶뺭볃쳥쫽뻝ꆣ쫽뻝살풴:WorldBank,WorldDevelopmentReport2006ꆣ듳쳥쿔쪾퓚쫕죫뷏뗍쟸뛎닐닮뷏듳,쫕죫뷏룟뷗뛎닐닮뷏뗍ꆣ쿠맘춳볆볬퇩돌탲쿔쪾듦퓚쿔훸틬랽닮ꆣꋙ춼2ꆡ냍삭죸킧펦쮮욽횵쿟탔맀볆랽돌닐닮럖늼(2004)쫽뻝살풴:폫춼1쿠춬ꆣ냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦퓚룟뗍쫕죫뺭볃쳥횮볤뷢쫍솦뗄닮틬뿉쓜폫솽랽쏦틲쯘폐맘ꆣ튻쫇쫜떽뛔샍뚯짺닺싊뛈솿컳닮벰웤럖늼탎첬뗄펰쿬ꆣ샍뚯짺닺싊쿠춬뗄맺볒횮볤죋뻹쫕죫뿉쓜늻춬,듓뛸듸살춳볆컳닮ꆣ샽죧,샍뚯짺닺싊쿠춬뗄솽맺죧맻뒦폚죋뿚뷡릹뇤뚯늻춬뷗뛎,죋뿚쫓뒰틲쯘뻶뚨뗄샍뚯솦햼ퟜ죋뿚뇈훘늻춬믡떼훂죋뻹쫕죫닮틬ꆣ뛔폚탍뺭볃살쮵,죧맻뻉쳥훆쿂풴엤훃얤쟺,듳솿풴훍쇴퓚뗍짺닺싊늿쏅,쪵탐쫐뎡뮯좡쿲룄룯듫쪩뫳,벴뇣룷늿쏅샍뚯짺닺싊듳쳥늻뇤,풴튪쯘듓뷏뗍킧싊늿쏅쇷쿲뷏룟킧싊늿쏅뗄훘ퟩ킧펦,퓚튻뚨쪱웚폐뿉쓜췆뚯뺭볃뿬쯙퓶뎤뫍죋뻹쫕죫쳡짽ꆣ헢샠떼훂죋뻹쫕죫폫샍뚯짺닺싊늻튻훂뗄틲쯘훷튪쫇퓚뺭볃랢햹뷏퓧웚뷗뛎랢짺펰쿬,뛈솿컳닮ퟷ폃펦훷튪벯훐퓚뗍쫕죫쟸뛎,튻뚨돌뛈짏믡떼훂냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦맘쾵뛔쫕죫쟸뛎뗄쏴룐ꆣ퓚헢룶틢틥짏,컊쳢늻쫇살ퟔ샭싛볙쮵,뛸쫇평폚뛔샭싛뇤솿뛈솿랽램뗄뻖쿞ꆣ뛾쫇쪵볊믣싊뇤뚯쫜떽짺닺싊틔췢틲쯘뗄펰쿬,죧맻헢킩틲쯘럖늼폫쫕죫쮮욽쿠맘,튲뿉쓜떼훂맀볆뷡맻돶쿖짏쫶컊쳢ꆣ헢쫴폚샭싛볙쮵놾짭뗄뻖쿞탔,뛔뷢쫍짏쫶맀볆뷡맻컊쳢뿉쓜룼캪훘튪ꆣ샽죧,틀뻝떱듺믹놾뻹뫢쪵볊믣싊샭싛,쎳틗쳵볾뇤뚯뿉쓜믡춨맽쳦듺뫍쫕죫킧펦살펰쿬쪵볊믣싊;헾뢮횧돶뫍춶횧돶뷡릹훐솽늿쏅뇈샽랢짺쿔훸뇤뚯,튲뿉쓜듓탨쟳뷇뛈뛔쪵볊믣싊랢짺펰ꋙ닉폃Breusch2PaganΠCook2Weisberg볬퇩랽램,맀볆랽돌ꛖ2(1)춳볆솿맀볆횵캪21011,뛸ꛖ2(1)춳볆솿퓚1%쿔훸돌뛈짏쇙뷧횵캪61635ꆣ8' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
2006쓪뗚7웚쿬ꆣ룟맘쮰ꆢ췢쎳쫽솿뿘훆ꆢ췢믣맜훆뗈듫쪩뿉쓜퓚튻뛎뷏뎤쪱웚쓚캬돖쪵볊믣싊룟맀,늢쪹맺쓚뺭볃쯸뚨퓚뗍킧싊퓋탐ힴ첬ꆣ훐맺헢퇹뗄탍뺭볃퓚럅쯉맜훆뫍붵뗍쎳틗뇚생뗄맽돌훐,쳥훆뇤뚯믡뛔쪵볊믣싊ퟟ쫆닺짺펰쿬ꆣ헢샠틲쯘뇤틬돌뛈퓚뺭볃랢햹퓧웚뷏듳,뿉쓜릹돉뗍훐쫕죫쟸볤냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦맘쾵뷏죵뗄훘튪풭틲;뺭볃돉뎤뷸죫훐룟쮮욽믲룟쫕죫퓶뎤웚뫳,헢샠틲쯘뇤틬돌뛈뷏뗍,틲뛸냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦뷏잿ꆣ컥ꆢ샻폃쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝맛달냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦평폚짺닺싊쫽뻝뿉믱뗃탔뗄쿞훆,샻폃맺뇰쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝맛달볬퇩냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦볙쮵뗄뷢쫍솦,췹췹죔닉폃죋뻹쫕죫ퟷ캪쳦듺뛈솿횸뇪ꆣ뿉쓜닉좡뗄튻훖볲떥뾼달랽램,쫇쳴톡뷏뎤튻뛎쪱웚쓚뺭볃쿠뛔퓶뎤싊뷏룟뗄맺볒뫍뗘쟸,춨맽맛달웤쪵볊믣싊퓚ힷ룏맽돌훐뗄뻟쳥뇭쿖살볬퇩냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦ꆣ캪듋쳴톡18룶뺭볃쳥,헻샭맀닢쯼쏇20쫀볍50ꆢ60쓪듺틔살쿠뛔쏀맺죋뻹쫕죫폫쪵볊믣싊뗄쫽뻝ꆣꋙ춼3놨룦헢킩뺭볃쳥쿠뛔죋뻹쫕죫뫍쪵볊믣싊뗄쫽뻝ꆣ헢킩뺭볃쳥퓚맛달웚뾪쪼쪱ꋚ쿠뛔폚쏀맺쫕죫뇈샽볲떥욽뻹횵캪25%,떽웚쒩2004쓪짏짽캪69%;쪵볊믣싊볲떥욽뻹횵웚돵캪5718%,웚쒩짏짽떽9417%ꆣ춼3ꆡ죴룉뺭볃쳥쿠뛔쫕죫뫍쿠뛔볛룱뇤뚯(1950Π60ꆪ2004)ꆡ헢킩뺭볃쳥쫕죫ힷ룏폫쪵볊믣싊뗄맘쾵뿉럖솽샠쟩뿶ꆣ튻샠쫇컷놱얷맺볒뫍죕놾,튻릲냼삨11룶퇹놾뺭볃쳥ꆣ쯼쏇믲뛾햽잰틑짭쇐잿,믲퓚퇹놾맛달돵웚죋뻹쫕죫웰뗣틑뷓뷼믲뎬맽쏀맺1Π3,웤햽뫳랢햹,놾훊짏쫇퓚떱듺뺭볃좫쟲뮯뮷뺳쿂,췪돉뛔쏀맺헢튻닎헕맺뗄뷏룟쫕죫뷗뛎ힷ룏뷸돌뗄ꆣ헢ퟩ뺭볃쳥돵웚죋뻹쿠뛔쫕죫볲떥욽뻹횵캪3416%,웚쒩캪9313%,듳쳥췪돉쇋ힷ룏;쪵볊믣싊욽뻹횵듓5816%짏짽떽11813%,폫릺싲솦욽볛풤닢ힴ첬뗄욫샫쏷쿔쯵킡ꆣ뛔헢11룶뺭볃쳥짏쫶솽룶뇤솿뷘쏦뫍쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝닉폃볲떥뛔쫽쿟탔쒣탍뷸탐믘맩럖컶,뷡맻쿔쪾뛾헟듦퓚쿔ꋙ쯤좻뿉틔닉좡룼퇏뷷즸톡돌탲쳴톡맛달뛔쿳,좻뛸헢킩뺭볃쳥듳쳥쫴폚헢튻쪱웚좫쟲랶캧쓚뺭볃ힷ룏ꆰ뗚튻쳝뛓ꆱ돉풱,틲뛸뛔컒쏇뾼달컊쳢뻟폐튻뚨듺뇭탔ꆣꋚ웤훐14룶퇹놾듓1950쓪듺돵,쇭췢4룶럖뇰뾪쪼폚1951ꆢ1953ꆢ1955뫍1960ꆣ9' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
슬ꆡ럦ꆢ몫쿾퇇:뎤웚뺭볃돉뎤폫쪵볊믣싊퇝뇤탸춼3ꆡꆡ훸춳볆솪쾵,죋뻹쫕죫맀볆쾵쫽캪01677ꆣꋙ헢폫뷘쏦쫽뻝쳡쪾뗄룟쫕죫맺볒쟸뛎냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦쿔훸뷡맻뻟폐튻훂탔ꆣꋙ맀볆랽돌캪LogRER=01731+01677logY,웤훐RER캪쪵볊믣싊,Y캪쿠뛔죋뻹쫕죫,죋뻹쫕죫뇤솿뫍뫍뷘뻠쿮맀볆쾵쫽뗄t횵럖뇰캪6015뫍3610,R2=01863,n=593ꆣ10' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
2006쓪뗚7웚탸춼3ꆡꆡꆡ쫽뻝살풴뫍쮵쏷:(1)쿠뛔쏀맺죋뻹쫕죫쫇틀뻝믣싊헛쯣쯹뗃뗄룷맺쏀풪죋뻹GDPꆣ돽첨췥틔췢쯹폐쫽뻝살ퟔIMF뗄IFS쫽뻝뿢ꆣ첨췥믣싊뮻쯣뗄죋뻹쏀풪GDP,1951ꆪ1993쓪쫽뻝살ퟔꆶ엁뛻룱샗럲쫀뷧샺쪷춳볆(1750ꆪ1993)ꆷ훐컄냦,1994ꆪ2004쓪쫽뻝살ퟔAsianDevelopmentBankꆰKeyIndicators2005ꆱꆣ(2)1950ꆪ2000쓪쪵볊믣싊뛈솿쫇PennWorldTable훐룷맺믲뺭볃쳥폫쏀맺쿠뛔볛룱쫽뻝;2001ꆪ2004쓪쪵볊믣싊쫽뻝폃쿂쏦랽램닢쯣:쿈샻폃IFS쫽뻝뿢룷맺CPI틔벰룷맺믵뇒뛔쏀풪쏻틥믣싊볆쯣2000ꆪ2004쓪쪵볊믣싊뫍2001ꆪ2004쓪쪵볊믣싊퓶뎤싊,좻뫳폃퓶뎤싊쫽뻝폫PennTable쫽뻝뛔뷓,뗃떽헻룶퇹놾웚쪵볊믣싊쫽뻝ꆣ떫쫇PennTable쎻폐놨룦뗂맺1950ꆪ1969쓪쿠뛔볛룱,헢튻쪱웚십뿋쪵볊믣싊튲샻폃IFS훐십뿋뛔쏀풪쏻틥믣싊뫍뗂맺쏀맺CPI쫽뻝볆쯣뗃돶,늢폫PennTable웤쯼쓪럝쫽뻝뛔뷓뛸뗃떽쯹폃탲쇐ꆣꆡ컞싛쫇뷘쏦쫽뻝뮹쫇쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝,뚼쿔쪾퓚뷏룟쫕죫뷗뛎듦퓚쿔훸뗄냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦,훘튪풭틲펦퓚폚룟쫕죫뷗뛎뗄뎤웚퓶뎤훷튪틀뾿벼쫵뷸늽뫍좫튪쯘짺닺싊뗄쳡짽,헢튻맽돌뇘좻냩쯦샍뚯짺닺싊쳡짽듓뛸싺ퟣ냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦쯹튪쟳뗄믹놾쳵볾ꆣ틲뛸죧맻냑샍뚯짺닺싊쿠뛔쳡짽뾴ퟷ쪵볊ힷ룏,냑믣싊뮻쯣쯹뗃뗄죋뻹쫕죫쿠뛔퓶뎤뾴ퟷ쏻틥ힷ룏,짏쫶뷡맻쮵쏷튻룶11' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
슬ꆡ럦ꆢ몫쿾퇇:뎤웚뺭볃돉뎤폫쪵볊믣싊퇝뇤뺭볃쳥죧쓜폐탒뷸죫룟쫕죫ힷ룏뷗뛎,쏻틥ힷ룏믡평폚쪵볊믣싊짽횵뛸틔룟폚쪵볊ힷ룏쯙뛈햹뾪ꆣ뗚뛾샠쫇웟룶뺭볃퓶뎤뷏뿬뗄랢햹훐뺭볃쳥ꆣ쫽뻝맛달웚듓쿣룛뫍탂볓웂뗄1960쓪뾪쪼,쯻쏇돵웚쿠뛔폚쏀맺죋뻹쫕죫럖뇰캪15%뫍17%,20쫀볍50쓪듺돵뾪쪼뗄컥룶뺭볃쳥웚돵죋뻹쫕죫늻떽10%ꆣ뺭맽듳풼냫룶쫀볍ힷ룏,벨킧ퟮ뫃뗄쿣룛뫍탂볓웂쿠뛔폚쏀맺죋뻹쫕죫,2004쓪듯떽60%ퟳ폒,틑듳쳥듯떽랢듯뺭볃쳥뗄쮮욽;몫맺뫍첨췥죋뻹쫕죫쿠뛔폚쏀맺쫕죫웚쒩럖뇰캪36%뫍34%,랢햹돉캪훐짏뗈뫍룟쫕죫뺭볃쳥;십살컷퇇ꆢ쒫컷룧쿠뛔죋뻹쫕죫늻떽쏀맺20%,첩맺늻떽10%,듳쳥죔뒦폚훐뗈뫍훐쿂뗈뺭볃쳥ꆣ쯼쏇쪵볊믣싊뇤뚯튲폐뷏듳닮틬ꆣ퇇훞쯄킡쇺퓚뺭볃룟쯙돉뎤쪱웚,쿠뛔쫕죫폫쿠뛔볛룱횮볤듦퓚쏷쿔헽쿲솪쾵,죧1960ꆪ2004쓪쿠뛔볛룱욽뻹횵듓55%짏짽떽6913%,볆솿럖컶뷡맻쿔쪾쿠뛔죋뻹쫕죫폫쪵볊믣싊횮볤떯탔쾵쫽캪01265,뗍폚룟쫕죫뺭볃쳥,좻뛸튲뫜쿔훸ꆣꋙ몫맺뫍첨췥20쫀볍50쓪듺잰뫳쪵탐뷸뿚쳦듺햽싔쪱웚,뺭볃퓶뎤쯙뛈폫뫳살웰량뷗뛎쿠뇈폐닮뻠ꋚ,늢쟒쪵볊믣싊듳럹쿂붵,쿠뛔쏀맺죋뻹쫕죫퓚엇뮲늨뚯훐돊쿖쿂붵쟷쫆ꆣ쒫컷룧ꆢ십살컷퇇ꆢ첩맺ힷ룏벨킧늻죧뚫퇇쯄킡쇺,쪵볊믣싊뇤뚯닮틬룼듳ꆣ쒫컷룧죋뻹쿠뛔쫕죫폫쪵볊믣싊뇤뚯솪쾵뷴쏜,뚫쏋솽룶훘튪맺볒쯤좻퓚죋뻹쫕죫뿬쯙ힷ룏뷗뛎쪵볊믣싊튲폐쏷쿔쳡짽,떫쫇헻룶쪱웚랴뛸폐쯹쿂붵ꆣ헢킩맛달쿔쪾,쯤좻뺭볃퓶뎤맽돌ퟮ훕믡떼훂쿠뛔볛룱쳡짽,좻뛸늻춬뺭볃쳥뷸죫쪵볊믣싊짏짽쯹뛔펦뗄쿠뛔볛룱,쇙뷧쮮욽듦퓚뷏듳뗄늻좷뚨탔,탨튪춨맽룶낸퇐뺿볓틔뾼달,늢쟒뺭볃ힷ룏듬헛뿉쓜믡냩쯦쿠뛔볛룱뇤뚯쟷쫆뷗뛎탔뗄쓦ꆣ쇹ꆢ킡뷡뫍움싛샻폃솽늿쏅샍뚯짺닺싊닮틬ꆢ샍뚯솦맺쓚뿧늿쏅쇷뚯뫍맺볊룴샫뗈뎣맦럖컶볙짨,냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦튻랽쏦뷢쫍쟮맺폫뢻맺볛룱쮮욽듦퓚쾵춳닮틬,뛔릺싲솦욽볛쳡돶샭싛훃틉믲탞헽;쇭튻랽쏦뛔뺭볃ힷ룏폫쪵볊믣싊ퟟ쫆맘쾵쳡돶췆닢,캪맛달뺭볃쫕솲맽돌훐쪵볊믣싊퇝뇤맬벣쳡릩튻룶샭싛쫓뷇ꆣ놾컄퓚뷩짜헢튻쒣탍쳡돶놳뺰뫍싟벭뷡릹뗄믹뒡짏,듓맺뇰뷘쏦쫽뻝뫍쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝솽랽쏦맛달웤뺭퇩횤뻝,랢쿖듳쳥짏뿉틔뛔헢튻샭싛볙쮵뷢쫍쓜솦쳡돶솽뗣에뛏ꆣ튻랽쏦듦퓚쿠떱잿뗄뺭퇩횤뻝,쮵쏷헢튻샭싛볙짨뛔맣랺뗄뺭볃쿖쿳뻟폐쿠떱잿뗄뷢쫍쓜솦ꆣ퓚뛠맺뷘쏦쫽뻝뎡뫏,쪵볊믣싊폫샍뚯짺닺싊횮볤듦퓚폫샭싛췆닢튻훂뗄쿔훸탔춳볆횤뻝;퓚맺뇰쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝뎡뫏,튲쓜맛달떽탭뛠뺭볃ힷ룏냩쯦쪵볊믣싊쿠펦짽횵뗄쿖쿳ꆣ좻뛸,뺭퇩횤뻝튲쿔쪾돶샭싛볙짨뗄뻖쿞탔ꆣ샻폃뷘쏦쫽뻝맀볆냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦듦퓚뗄틬랽닮컊쳢,맺뇰쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝쿔쪾헢튻킧펦뗄닮틬탔뇭쿖,쳡쪾헢튻샭싛폐킧탔뛔맛달뛔쿳쯹뒦쫕죫쟸뛎쿠떱쏴룐ꆣ뛔폚퓚뗍쫕죫짵훁훐뗈쫕죫쟸뛎뺭볃뿬쯙퓶뎤뗄맛달뛔쿳,쪵볊믣싊뇤뚯폫샭싛풤닢ힴ첬듦퓚뷏듳욫샫,늢폫룟쫕죫쟸뛎룼캪쿔훸뗄맘쾵탎돉쿊쏷뛔헕ꆣ놾컄듓뇤솿뛈솿컳닮뫍샍뚯짺닺싊틔췢틲쯘펰쿬쿠뛔볛룱솽룶뷇뛈쳖싛쇋짏쫶쿖쿳풭틲ꆣ놾컄뛔샭뷢뺭볃돉뎤맽돌훐쪵볊뫍쏻틥ힷ룏횮볤뗄뚯첬맘쾵뻟폐웴쪾몬틥ꆣ냑랢햹훐맺볒샍뚯짺닺싊쿠뛔쳡짽뾴ퟷ쪵볊ힷ룏뫍쫕솲,냑믣싊뮻쯣뫳뗄죋뻹쫕죫쿠뛔퓶뎤뾴ퟷ쏻틥ힷ룏뫍쫕솲ꋛ,놾컄맛달쳡쪾뛾헟ퟩ뫏뗄늻춬쟩뿶ꆣ튻쫇랢햹훐맺볒죧쪵탐뷸뿚쳦듺뫍믣싊룟맀헾닟,폐뿉ꋙ맀볆랽돌캪LogRER=1144+01265logY,웤훐RER캪쪵볊믣싊,Y캪쿠뛔죋뻹쫕죫,죋뻹쫕죫뇤솿뫍뫍뷘뻠쿮맀볆쾵쫽뗄t횵럖뇰캪17199뫍7119,R2=0163,n=195ꆣꋚ몫맺퓚1954ꆪ1960쓪볤뺭볃쓪뻹퓶뎤싊캪3185%,풶풶뗍폚20쫀볍60쓪듺떽뚫퇇뺭볃캣믺잰뗄36쓪8%뗄쓪뻹퓶뎤쯙뛈;첨췥1953ꆪ1960쓪볤뺭볃쓪뻹퓶뎤싊캪7158%,튲뗍폚쯦뫳30쓪뺭볃웰량쪱웚쓪뻹9132%뗄퓶뎤쯙뛈ꆣꋛ헢샯뛔쏻틥쫕솲뗄뚨틥,폫얷쏋튪쟳돉풱맺춨믵엲헍ꆢ닆헾돠ퟖ뗈뫪맛뺭볃횸뇪뇘탫뿘훆퓚튻뚨쫽솿랶캧쓚뗄쏻틥쫕솲룅쓮늻춬ꆣ12' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
2006쓪뗚7웚쓜퓚튻뚨쪱웚죋캪쳡짽쿠뛔볛룱늢엉짺쏻틥쫕솲뷏뫃뗄뇭쿖,좻뛸헢샠햽싔쓚퓚뗄삧쓑뻶뚨쏻틥ힷ룏ퟮ훕믡쟷뮺ꆢ춣훍짵훁쓦ꆣ뛾쫇쫐뎡뮯뫍뾪럅좡쿲뗄룄룯폐훺폚쳡짽샍뚯짺닺싊틲뛸볓뿬쪵볊쫕솲,좻뛸탍돵웚튪쟳믣싊뇡횵믘맩믹놾쏦,쿠뛔볛룱쿂붵떼훂튻뚨쪱웚돶쿖틔놾뇒뫢솿뗄쫕죫뷏뿬퓶뎤폫믣싊뮻쯣뗄쫕죫퓶뎤뫜싽뗄쟩뿶ꆣ죽쫇죧맻튻맺퓚폐킧쳥훆뫍뾪럅뮷뺳쿂돖탸돉뎤,샍뚯짺닺싊ힷ룏ퟮ훕췆뚯놾뇒쪵볊믣싊짽횵,뺭볃돉뎤뷸죫쏻틥쫕솲쯙뛈뎬맽쪵볊쫕솲뗄뷗뛎ꆣ퓚닺욷쓚럖릤췘햹짮뮯뗄뺭볃좫쟲뮯듳뮷뺳쿂,컒맺뺭볃돉뎤폫떱듺웤쯼맺볒뫍뗘쟸릲쿭쒳킩뾪럅랢햹뗄돉릦뺭퇩;좻뛸평폚듦퓚샺쪷웰뗣ꆢ쳥훆뮷뺳ꆢ뺭볃맦쒣뗈랽쏦쳘탔,헢튻뷸돌폖뻟폐짮뿌뗄맺쟩쳘헷ꆣ컒맺뺭볃뾪럅탍돉뎤뗀슷뻶뚨쇋죋쏱뇒믣싊퇝뇤믡쏦쇙룼뛠뗄쳴햽탔컊쳢,냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦볙쮵틔웤볲쏷쟥컺뗄샭싛싟벭뫍늻쯗뗄뺭퇩뇭쿖,뛔헢튻쇬폲퇐뺿뻟폐훘튪뗄죏쪶뷨본틢틥ꆣ냑냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦볙쮵샭싛뇤솿폫훐맺쳘즫틲쯘폐믺뷡뫏웰살,럖컶훐맺뺭볃돉뎤놳뺰쿂죋쏱뇒믣싊쎬뛜퓋뚯뗄짮닣풭틲뫍쓚퓚맦싉,쫇뻟폐훘튪샭싛뫍헾닟틢틥뗄퇐뺿뿎쳢ꆣ닎뾼컄쿗맘횾탛,2002ꆶ:훐맺GDP뫎죕룼짏튻닣슥ꆷ,퓘폚맘횾탛ꆶퟶ뫃훐맺ퟔ벺뗄쫂ꆪꆪꆪꆰ훐맺췾킲싛ꆱ틽랢뗄쮼뾼ꆷ,뗚151ꆪ154튳,훐맺짌컱돶냦짧,2005쓪냦ꆣ뿋슳룱싼ꆢ놣싞,냂늮쮹램뛻뗂ꆢ쎩죰쮹,1998ꆶ:맺볊뺭볃톧ꆷ(훐틫놾),훐맺죋쏱듳톧돶냦짧1998쓪냦ꆣ슬럦,2006ꆶ:죋쏱뇒쪵볊믣싊횮쏕(1979ꆪ2005)ꆪꆪꆪ훐맺뺭볃ힷ룏쪵볹쳡돶뗄쳴햽탔컊쳢ꆷ,놱뺩듳톧훐맺뺭볃퇐뺿훐탄ꆶ훐컄쳖싛룥ꆷ,,2006쓪2퓂28죕ꆣ슬럦ꆢ몫쿾퇇,2006ꆶ:뎤웚뺭볃돉뎤폫쪵볊믣싊퇝뇤ꆪꆪꆪ냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻톷킧펦볙쮵벰웤뺭퇩횤뻝ꆷ,놱뺩듳톧훐맺뺭볃퇐뺿훐탄ꆶ훐컄쳖싛룥ꆷ,2006쓪2퓂21죕ꆣ퇮뎤붭,2002ꆶ:죋쏱뇒쪵볊믣싊뎤웚뗷헻쟷쫆퇐뺿ꆷ,짏몣닆뺭돶냦짧ꆣ폡쏈,2001ꆶ:죋쏱뇒믣싊뗄냍삭죸ꆪ죸뛻즭킧펦럖컶ꆷꆶ,쫀뷧뺭볃ꆷ뗚5웚ꆣBalassa,Bela,1964,ꆰThePurchasing2PowerParityDoctrine:AReappraisalꆱ,TheJournalofPoliticalEconomy,,(Dec.,1964),ꆪ,MenzieDavid,1997,ꆰTheUsualSuspects?ProductivityandDemandShocksandAsia2PacificRealExchangeRatesꆱ,NBERWorkingPapers,,Jul.,,Sabastian,1989,RealExchangeRates,Devaluation,andAdjustment:ExchangeRatePolicyinDevelopingCountries,TheMITPress,Cambridge,Massachusetts,,SebastianandSavastano,Miguel,1999,ꆰExchangeRatesinEmergingEconomies:WhatDoWeKnow?WhatDoWeNeedtoTnow?ꆱNBERWorkingPapers,,,Jeffrey,2004,ꆰOntheRenminbi:TheChoiceBetweenAdjustmentUnderaFixedExchangeRateandAdjustmentUnderaFlexibleRateꆱPaperpresentedatꆰTheHigh2LevelSeminaronForeignExchangeSystemꆱheldinDalian,China,May26ꆪ27,,Hendrik,1962,ꆰExchangeRateAdjustment.ꆱInFactorsAffectingtheUnitedStatesBalanceofPayments,ꆪ,JointEconomicCommittee,87thCongress,2ndSession,Washington,.:,,David,1982,ꆰTheDeterminantsoftheRealExchangeRate:TheProductivityApproachꆱJournalofInternationalEconomics,12,ꆪ,James,1962,ꆰAProposalforFinancialIntegrationintheAtlanticCommunityꆱ,InFactorsAffectingtheUnitedStatesBalanceofPayments,ꆪ,JointEconomicCommittee,87thCongress,2ndSession,Washington,.:,,Takatoshi;Isard,PeterandSymansky,Steven,1997,ꆰEconomicGrowthandRealExchangeRate:AnOverviewoftheBalassa2SamuelsonhypothesisinAsiaꆱ,,USCongress,1962,FactorsAffectingtheUnitedStatesBalanceofPayments,CompilationofStudiesPreparedfortheSubcommitteeonInternationalExchangeandPayments,JointEconomicCommittee,87thCongress,2ndSession,Washington,.:' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
슬ꆡ럦ꆢ몫쿾퇇:뎤웚뺭볃돉뎤폫쪵볊믣싊퇝뇤GovernmentPrintingOffice,,Richard,1997,ꆰRealExchangeRatesandProductivityGrowthintheUnitedStatesandJapanꆱ,PaperpreparedfortheConferenceonReal2FinancialLinkagesinOpenEconomics,AmericanEnterpriseInstitute,WashingtonDC.,January30ꆪ31,(ed.,)RealFinancialLinkagesamongOpenEconomies,Cambridge,MA,MITPress,ꆪ,Peter,1999,ꆰTheLong2runEquilibriumRealExchangeRate:ConceptualIssuesandEmpiricalResearchꆱ,,1999,ExchangeRateMisalignment:,OxfordUniversityPress,1999,ꆪ,1974,ꆰPurchasing2power2parityandFactorPriceEqualizationꆱKyklos,,ꆪ,1976a,ꆰThePurchasing2power2parityTheoryofExchangeRates:AReviewArticleꆱInternationalMonetaryFundStaffPapers,,,ꆪ60,,1976b,ꆰTheProductivityBiasinPurchasing2power2parity:AnEconometricInvestigationꆱInternationalMonetaryFundStaffPapers,,,ꆪ60,,1992,MacroeconomicsintheGlobalEconomy,PrenticeHall,,Paul,1964,ꆰTheoreticalNotesonTradeProblemsꆱ,TheReviewofEconomicsandStatistics,,,May1964,ꆪ,John,1983,ꆰTheExchangeRateSystemꆱ,PolicyAnalysisinInternationalEconomics,5,,,HanXiaoya(ChinaCenterforEconomicReseasrchatPekingUniversity)Abstract:,:RealExchangeRate;EconomicGrowth;TheBalassa2SamuelsonEffectsJELClassification:F310,F430,F020(퓰죎뇠벭:햲킡뫩)(킣뛔:쿾ꆡ언)14' 1994-2009 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
