MASTERING LONG RANGE PLANNING
FORECAST PROCESSES
WEBINAR
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SPEAKERS
ANDREW WARD
Head of Implementation,
J+D Forecasting
AMANDA RANDALL
Implementation Director,
J+D Forecasting
DAN CHANCELLOR
VP, Thought Leadership,
Norstella
MAKING SURE LONG RANGE PLANNING CYCLES
ARE SUCCESSFUL – KEY WEBINAR TAKEAWAYS
• LRP can present many challenges in execution LRP forecast cycles are a key component of the annual processes that take
place within Pharmaceutical and Biotech companies, and as such are important to deliver in an efficient and insightful manner
• And there are a range of solutions available that companies can choose from, depending on their specific situation and
challenges being faced
We will highlight and discuss key concepts that
underpin any forecasting solution strategy, and the
key considerations that need to be factored in.
KEY CONCEPTS
You will gain a better appreciation of the different
possible solutions, with the chance to reflect on
which might be most appropriate and application
to your situation.
UNDERSTANDING
Examples and a case study will be used to bring to
life how some of these solutions can be
implemented to transform an LRP process.
APPLYING IDEAS
We will walk through a range of solutions
that will help tackle the common
challenges and pain points seen in LRP
processes. A broad range of technical
and operational ideas will be discussed,
all aimed at transforming how the typical
activities associated with LRP are
executed.
OUR AIM
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SUMMARY OF LRP FORECAST CYCLE AND
TYPICAL CHALLENGES ENCOUNTERED
LONG RANGE PLANNING PROCESS AND HOW IT FITS
IN WITH OTHER COMMON FORECASTING CYCLES
• Long-term focus covering pipeline
and in market brands for next 5
years+.
• Feeds into strategic planning.
• Involves mix of global, regional and
affiliates.
• Focus on understanding drivers, risks
and opportunities.
LONG RANGE PLAN
(LRP)
• Very short-term focus covering any
product with expected revenue within the
year.
• Feeds into tactical in-year activities.
• Mainly affiliates with extent of global /
regional involvement varying by company.
• Focus on tracking actuals against budget
to understand performance.
LATEST BEST ESTIMATE (LBE)
• Short-term focus covering launched / close
to launch brands for next 1-2 years.
• Feeds into budget setting for following
year.
• Involves mix of global, regional and
affiliates.
• Focus on creating a robust estimate for
internal planning.
ANNUAL OPERATIONAL
PLAN (AOP)
LONG RANGE PLAN (LRP)
LATEST BEST ESTIMATE (LBE)
ANNUAL OPERATIONAL PLAN (AOP)
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
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LONG RANGE PLANNING WORKFLOW –
ROLES OF VARIOUS STAKEHOLDERS
Affiliates populate /
update forecast model
GLOBAL / REGIONAL AFFILIATES
Develop forecast
model
Generate country models with pre-
filled data and send out
Highlight key discussion points
Affiliate models
consolidated and
visualised
Agree with
models?
Final
consolidation
Review / input from key stakeholders
Outputs for
management
Develop forecast
model
Affiliates review and finalise
forecast model ready for
Global / Regional
Review / input
from key Affiliate
stakeholdersModels
reviewed
Yes
No
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LONG RANGE PLANNING WORKFLOW –
BALANCING ROLES OF VARIOUS STAKEHOLDERS
OBJECTIVE:
Efficiently deliver long range forecast for the business and provide the required information to each stakeholder group in a timely manner
• Any small inefficiencies which exist will be
amplified across the whole process
• Significant coordination is required across
many people in a wide range of roles
• Clear alignment is needed between multiple
models and systems for easy analysis
• Wide scope across many brands,
countries and functions
• Lots of moving parts covering various
data sources, systems and people
• Greater potential for uncertainty due
to forecast time-period
• Inflexible timeline to complete required tasks
SOUNDS LIKE A SIMPLE OBJECTIVE
BUT DIFFICULT TO COMPLETE BECAUSE…
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LONG RANGE PLANNING CHALLENGES AND SOLUTIONS CAN CONCEPTUALLY
BE GROUPED INTO SEVERAL CATEGORIES
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SOLUTION - Optimizing forecast models for your stakeholders and the LRP
USING INCONSISTENT, POTENTIALLY UNSUITABLE FORECAST MODELS
SOLUTION - Ensuring an efficient and robust process for managing forecast model files
DIFFICULT TO MANAGE FORECAST MODEL FILES
SOLUTION - Effective management of stakeholders during LRP and as change is implemented
STAKEHOLDER COORDINATION AND ENGAGEMENT TIME CONSUMING
SOLUTION - Creating an efficient analytics setup to meet expected internal requirements
INEFFICIENT AND MANUAL DATA AGGREGATION, ANALYZING AND REPORTING
Before considering specific solutions to address each challenge, it is important to consider whether an
overarching forecasting platform is required to provide the centralized framework for these solutions to sit within…
01
02
03
04
SOLUTIONS PROVEN TO DELIVER
SUCCESSFUL LRP CYCLES
CONSIDER IF YOU NEED AN OVERARCHING
FORECASTING PLATFORM AS PART OF THE SOLUTION
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Complexity, inefficiencies and poor
responsiveness involved in an informal
system becomes a business-critical issue
– it's at this point where a formal system
needs to be considered.
TIPPING POINT
As the number of models, forecast cycles, users, countries, scenarios, brands and business units included in the LRP
increase, then the need for an overarching forecasting platform increases.
USING INCONSISTENT, POTENTIALLY UNSUITABLE, FORECAST MODELS
OPTIMIZING FORECAST MODELS FOR YOUR STAKEHOLDERS AND THE LRP
01
Moving away from Excel leads to poor
compliance, low visibility, and reduced team
engagement, ultimately making forecasting
ineffective
KEEP THE FORECAST
MODELS IN EXCEL
Using a single, standardized template across all
markets ensures alignment of key assumptions
and outputs, making consolidation and
comparison easy
ENSURE CONSISTENCY OF MODEL
DESIGN AND / OR OUTPUTS
Patient flow models are best for progressive diseases,
while a simple bottom-up approach suits small markets
or rare diseases with limited prescribers and resources
MAKE SURE THE RIGHT MODELING
METHODOLOGY IS CHOSEN
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DIFFICULT TO MANAGE FORECAST MODEL FILES
ENSURING AN EFFICIENT AND ROBUST PROCESS FOR MANAGING FORECAST
MODEL FILES
As brands approach launch, forecasting must expand to
include more markets beyond G8 countries, requiring
seamless integration of users and models into the system
EMBED THE ABILITY TO EASILY SCALE
THE APPROACH OVER TIME AS BRANDS
AND / OR COUNTRIES ADDED
Clear processes, well-communicated timelines,
and regular touchpoints are essential to
effectively engage and support all stakeholders
DEFINE PROCESS FOR LRP WITH
KEY STAGES, REQUIREMENTS AND
ASSOCIATED TIMINGS DETAILED
Proper file management is crucial because it
eliminates wasted time searching for the right model
and allows teams to focus on value-adding activities
during the LRP process
USE A CLEAR AND CONSISTENT
FILING STRUCTURE FOR FORECAST
MODELS AND ASSOCIATED FILES
02
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STAKEHOLDER COORDINATION AND ENGAGEMENT TIME CONSUMING
EFFECTIVE MANAGEMENT OF STAKEHOLDERS DURING LRP
AND AS CHANGE IS IMPLEMENTED
Tailor training sessions depending on stakeholder profiles –
for example in-depth users versus reviewers versus
consuming dashboards, or country versus regional users
PUT IN PLACE TRAINING AND SUPPORT
TAILORED TO THE DIFFERENT
STAKEHOLDER GROUPS
Keep local market stakeholder engagement
high by factoring in the key requirements to
the model and system that are essential to
their forecasting and bring them value
MAP STAKEHOLDER NEEDS
AND DESIGN VALUE FOR ALL
WHEN DEPLOYING NEW TOOLS
Take a phased approach for implementing a new forecasting
system - focusing on key markets and brands in the initial
rollout and including more markets and brands in future
phases
FOCUS ON THE KEY PRIORITIES AND
PHASE INTRODUCTION OF NEW TOOLS TO
MANAGE CHANGE EFFECTIVELY
03
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INEFFICIENT AND MANUAL DATA AGGREGATION, ANALYZING AND REPORTING
CREATING AN EFFICIENT ANALYTICS SETUP TO MEET EXPECTED
INTERNAL REQUIREMENTS
04
Manually consolidating separate Excel files,
leading to inefficiencies and frequent errors.
Implementing an automated system streamlines
consolidation and analysis, saving time and
ensuring accuracy
SET UP SYSTEM FOR EFFICIENT
CONSOLIDATION AND COMPARISON
ANALYSIS ACROSS ALL REQUIRED
FORECASTS
Automation eliminates the repetitive task of
manually creating key reports, allowing you to focus
on the high-value aspects of the LRP process
INVEST IN AUTOMATION OF
KEY REPORTS TO DELIVER
EFFICIENCIES
Implementation of ‘What-If’ analysis reports,
where users can change predetermined variables
and immediately see the impact on the revenue
forecast, enabling swift responses to ad-hoc
questions from senior internal stakeholders
DESIGN REAL TIME FORECASTING
TOOLS TO EMPOWER INTERNAL
DISCUSSIONS
Supports system integration by enabling tailored
data extracts to be exported, streamlining the
process of submitting forecasting data into the
internal reporting system
SET UP ANALYTICS TO EASILY
INTEGRATE INTO OTHER
COMPANY SYSTEMS
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CASE STUDY: IMPLEMENTATION
OF FORECASTING PLATFORM
CASE STUDY: IMPLEMENTATION OF FORECASTING PLATFORM
EXAMPLE DELIVERABLES:
A global biopharmaceutical company needed a
solution to improve forecasting and analytics for
patient, demand, ex-factory, and gross-to-net
data across countries and brands.
CONTEXT
Deployment of a forecasting platform that
centralized models, enabled quick output
comparisons, and streamlined sales forecast
integration into the finance system.
APPROACH
The platform enabled easy model comparison,
consolidation, and analysis, saving time through
automated data extraction into PowerPoint and
the finance system, and was expanded across
the entire portfolio.
IMPACT
We provided a configured and customized forecasting platform that was deployed within the client system, stored all
forecast models, facilitated the aggregation / analysis of multiple forecasting methodologies and provided standardized,
click of a button, PowerPoint extractions…
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CONCLUSIONS AND QUESTIONS
CONCLUSIONS
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• An overarching forecasting platform is a key component in enabling
effective implementation of the different solutions that help to address
common challenges when conducting LRP
• Optimising your forecast models is a critical aspect when looking to
remove challenges
• Ensuring a structured approach to storing / managing access to
forecast files will eliminate many common challenges
• Critical to manage change effectively through focusing on key
priorities, providing sufficient support and ensuring value for all
stakeholders
• Ensuring the core analytics can be completed efficiently is
important, plus identifying ways to provide added value, such as real
time forecasting and automation
QUESTIONS?
THANK YOU.
幻灯片 1
幻灯片 2: SPEAKERS
幻灯片 3: MAKING SURE LONG RANGE PLANNING CYCLES ARE SUCCESSFUL – KEY WEBINAR TAKEAWAYS
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幻灯片 5: LONG RANGE PLANNING PROCESS AND HOW IT FITS IN WITH OTHER COMMON FORECASTING CYCLES
幻灯片 6: LONG RANGE PLANNING WORKFLOW – ROLES OF VARIOUS STAKEHOLDERS
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幻灯片 10: CONSIDER IF YOU NEED AN OVERARCHING FORECASTING PLATFORM AS PART OF THE SOLUTION
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幻灯片 18: CONCLUSIONS
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