훐맺죋뿚ꆤ풴폫뮷뺳ꆡ2006쓪ꆡ뗚16뻭ꆡ뗚1웚ꆡꆡCHINAPOPULATION,RESOURCESANDENVIRONMENTꆡꆡꆡ2006얩뗘췢늿킧틦쓚퓚뮯폫얩뗘돇쫐쇷뿘훆3쯯몣뇸ꆡ헅낲슼(뮪훐얩튵듳톧췁뗘맜샭톧풺,뫾놱커몺430070)햪튪ꆡ얩뗘뇈뷏킧틦뗍쿂,떫뻟폐쿔훸뗄췢늿킧틦,늻뾼싇췢늿킧틦뗄얩뗘돇쫐쇷룶쳥뻶닟폫뾼싇췢늿킧틦뗄짧믡뻶닟늻튻훂쫇쪵탐얩뗘놣뮤뗄훘튪틀뻝,웤헾닟쪧쇩늿럖퓚폚놣뮤쟸얩쏱컞뎥쳡릩췢늿킧틦뛸좱랦놣뮤폕틲,룄뷸쮼슷쫇퓚퓋폃잿훆탔맜샭쫖뛎뗄춬쪱,얩뗘췢늿킧틦뺭볃쓚퓚뮯,쳡룟얩뗘킧틦,뻟쳥퓋ퟷ냼삨놣횤얩쏱쿭폐뷏듳뻶닟좨ꆢ좫쏦움볛얩뗘킧틦ꆢ퓶짨얩뗘췢늿킧틦닆닺좨ꆢ뢳폨놣뮤쟸얩쏱늢횧뢶얩뗘놣뮤늹뎥쿮믹뷰틔벰쪹놣뮤쟸믱뗃룼뛠뗄릫욽랢햹뗈ꆣ맘볼듊ꆡ췢늿킧틦;얩뗘돇쫐쇷;얩뗘놣뮤;뻶닟;닺좨늹뎥훐춼럖샠뫅ꆡF30112ꆡꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫ꆡAꆡꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅ꆡ1002-2104(2006)01-0083-05ꆡꆡ쯦ퟅ쿧듥돇쫐뮯뷸돌뗄죕틦볓뿬,얩뗘폈웤쫇돇쿧붻튲뿉쫜틦,웤볛횵캴쓜퓚쫐뎡짏틔믵뇒뗄탎쪽쿔뮯돶살,듭쟸뗄얩뗘쿲돇쫐폃뗘쇷틑돉캪튻훖늻뿉뇜쏢뗄짧믡쳥쿖늻떽얩뗘쪹폃헟뫍놣뮤헟짭짏,뛔쫐뎡살쮵횻쫇튻훖뺭볃쿖쿳ꆣ뻝풭맺볒췁뗘맜샭뻖뗷닩,1986-1996쓪,좫ꆰ췢늿탔ꆱ킧틦ꆣ맺31룶쳘듳돇쫐뗄돇쫐폃뗘맦쒣퓶뎤떯탔쾵쫽캪,ꆡ솸쪳낲좫킧틦듳듳룟폚뗄뫏샭쮮욽ꆣ듳솿폅훊얩뗘뗄뗍킧쯰쪧,쏱틔쪳캪쳬,췁캪얩횮놾,컞쳬퓲컞짺,컞뗘퓲컞룹,캣벰떽솸쪳낲좫ꆢ릫훚붡뾵ꆢ짺컯뛠퇹탔뗄캬뮤,틽랢늻뿉컞얩늻컈,컞룹퓲싒ꆣ얩뗘쳡릩솸쪳ꆢ쫟닋ꆢ죢ꆢ떰ꆢ쓌ꆢ쮮쓦뗄뺭볃ꆢ짧믡뫍뮷뺳컊쳢ꆣ맺볒훷튪닉좡쇋룻뗘ퟜ솿맻ꆢ쿋캬뗈얩뢱닺욷,틔싺ퟣ늻뛏퓶뎤뗄맺볒믲뗘쟸죋뿚뚯첬욽뫢ꆢ믹놾얩쳯놣뮤ꆢ췁뗘폃춾맜훆뗈잿훆탔헾닟살뗄펪퇸벰짺믮탨쟳ꆣ쿖뷗뛎벰뷱뫳,컒맺솸쪳뚼훷튪펦뾿뿘훆얩뗘쇷ꆣ펦룃돐죏,헢킩헾닟뗄쪵쪩뛔폚놣뮤컒맺ퟔ룸,늻뿉쓜맽뛠틀삵뷸뿚,뛸죋퓶뗘복뫍죋쏱쿻럑쮮욽폐쿞뗄얩뗘풴웰떽쇋튻뚨뗄믽벫ퟷ폃,떫쫇,컞뿉럱죏,죕틦쳡룟뗄쟷쫆늻믡룄뇤,뫳놸췁뗘풴튲벫웤폐쿞,놣웤퓋탐킧맻늢늻쪮럖샭쿫,죧1997쓪맺볒뚳뷡췁뗘럇얩뮤뫃룻뗘폈웤쫇폅훊룻뗘,뛔맺볒솸쪳낲좫뻟폐믹뒡탔컈햼폃짳엺,떫룻뗘뺻쯰쪧죔듯떽췲hm2[1];믹놾얩쳯뚨ퟷ폃ꆣ얩뗘훐뗄풰뗘ꆢ쓁닝뗘ꆢ퇸횳쮮쏦뫍늿럖쇖뗘뫜웕뇩듦퓚ꆰ뮮쇓늻뮮폅ꆱꆢꆰ뮮풶늻뮮뷼ꆱ뗄쿖쿳[2]ꆣ맺췁듳돌뛈짏쫇뿉룻뗘풴,퓚탨튪쪱쓜릻뮯캪룻뗘ꆣ떫얩풴늿뗄춳볆쫽ퟖ뇭쏷,1990-2004쓪,좫맺41룶쳘듳돇쫐뗘튻떩듳솿놻뾪랢돉돇쫐폃뗘,얩튵짺닺짨쪩놻돇쫐폃뗘뗄돇쫐폃뗘맦쒣퓶뎤떯탔쾵쫽듯2128ꆣ얩뗘쇷쪧뗄짮닣짨쪩쯹좡듺,얩튵짺닺뗄믹놾튪쯘ꆪꆪꆪ룻ퟷ닣췁죀늻뢴듦뚯틲퓚폚얩뗘샻폃뗄뇈뷏킧틦뗍쿂[3],틲듋,좫쏦죏쪶췹퓚,헢늿럖얩뗘붫늻뿉쓦뗄쪧좥믲쓑틔믘뢴,솸쪳낲좫췹놻뫶쫓뗄얩뗘췢늿킧틦,럖컶얩뗘놣뮤뗄쪵훊벰웤헾닟컞틉믡쫜떽돥믷ꆣ돂쏷붡뗈퓸맀쯣돶:떱솸쪳낲좫돌뛈붵쪧쇩,돤럖랢믓뺭볃샻틦뗄떼쿲ퟷ폃,늢폫퇏룱뗄맜샭쫖뗍1%ꆫ4%,짧믡뗄뇟볊뢣샻쯰쪧캪쎿퓂99561612ꆫ뛎쿠뷡뫏,컞틉폐훺폚룼폐킧뗘놣뮤얩뗘ꆣ180962567풪[4]ꆣꆡ짺첬뮷뺳킧틦1ꆡ얩뗘췢늿킧틦뗄죏횪(1)쟥뺻뿕웸ꆣ얩뗘짏싌즫횲컯쫇뮷뺳뗄ꆰ컼뚾웷ꆱ,얩뗘돽쇋쪹폃헟뿉횱뷓쿭쫜뗄짺닺킧틦췢,뮹뻟폐솸쯼쏇춨맽맢뫏ퟷ폃,컼쫕뿕웸훐뗄뛾퇵뮯첼,짺돉웏쳑쳇ꆢ쪳낲좫ꆢ뮷뺳킧틦뗈ꆣ떫헢킩짧믡킧틦ꆢ짺첬킧틦뻟폐릫쿋캬쯘뗈첼쮮뮯뫏컯,늢럅돶퇵웸ꆣ춬쪱춨맽컼쫕ꆢ컼뢽ꆢ릲욷뗄탔훊,탭뛠웤쯻럇쪹폃헟뿉듮뇣뎵,늻뇘뢶돶듺볛ퟨ훍뗈탎쪽돉캪컛좾컯맩쯞뗄뫆듳믣뿢,쓜쪹룷훖컛좾컯쫕룥죕웚:2005-05-17ퟷ헟볲뷩:쯯몣뇸,늩쪿짺,랿뗘닺맀볛쪦,퇐뺿랽쿲캪췁뗘풴맜샭ꆣ3맺볒ퟔ좻뿆톧믹뷰쿮쒿(뇠뫅:70273012ꆢ70373054)ꆣꆤ83ꆤ
훐맺죋뿚ꆤ풴폫뮷뺳ꆡ2006쓪ꆡ뗚1웚샫뾪뛔죋탳닺짺캣몦뗄뮷뺳뛸틆떽쇭튻룶뮷뺳,틔듯떽쪳뗄복짙튲펦폫훖뗘뗄믽벫탔붵뗍폐맘쾵),춬쪱얩튵쮰뺻뮯릦폃ꆣ뗈훰늽복쏢쪹얩튵돉놾튲폐쯹붵뗍,헢퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏쳡룟(2)몭퇸쮮풴ꆣ즭쇖쫇싌즫뗄쮮뿢,닝뗘뿉뷘쇷뿉맛쇋얩쏱훖뗘뗄믽벫탔,떫춬쪱,얩튩ꆢ뮯럊뗈얩볛룱뗄웕뗄붵쮮솿,맻쫷뿉웰떽튻뚨탮쮮ퟷ폃,쮮떾쳯튲쓜몭퇸쮮뇩짏헇,퓚뫜듳돌뛈뗖쿻쇋맺볒폅믝헾닟뫍얩닺욷볛룱짏풴,룹뻝닌쏷뮪폚1994쓪뗄맀볆,1982쓪첨췥쮮쳯쎿쓪뗘헇듸살뗄훖횲쫜틦,얩튵뺻쫕틦틀좻욫뗍,얩뗘죔폐쿲돇쿂쮮몭퇸ퟜ솿캪틚m3,풼캪첨췥쮮뿢쓪퓋폃솿29쫐쇷뗄풸췻ꆣ틚m3뗄2놶,틔풭돉놾5풪/m3볆쯣,웤쓪킧틦캪290틚쇭튻랽쏦,돇쫐붨짨닺튵뷏룟뗄쫕틦쳡짽쇋돇쫐폃뗘풪[5]ꆣ뺻쫕틦쮮욽ꆣ돇쫐붨짨닺튵뷏룟뗄뺭볃믘놨늻뷶풵폚웤(3)놣뮤췁죀ꆣ쇖뗘ꆢ닝뗘ꆢ쪪뗘ꆢ맻쫷뗈뿉틔럀럧만놾짭뗄닺튵폅쫆,뛸쟒풵폚헾뢮쟣킱뗄뺭볃랢햹헾닟ꆣ돇즳,럀횹쮮췁쇷쪧,복짙췁죀쟖쪴ꆣ쮮쳯뺭뎣놣돖째쮮뿉쿧릤뿳폃뗘킧틦럖뇰쫇룻뗘ꆢ쇖뗘ꆢ쓁닝뗘킧틦뗄37ꆢ447ꆢ럀횹럧쪴벰쮮쪴ꆣ얩뗘닐폠ퟷ컯뿉믘맩췁죀틔캬돖뗘솦ꆣ668놶[3]ꆣ얩뗘폃훐헷뗘늹뎥럑쯤좻뷏뗍,떫죔뷏얩뗘죧떾닝ꆢ헡튶몬떪듯%,믘맩쪹ퟷ컯믱뗃펪퇸,쓜복짙뒿쫕틦룟돶쫽놶ꆣ죧룊쯠룞삼쿘뫍즽컷맣쇩쿘,헷뗘럑캪뮯톧럊쇏뗄쪩폃[5]ꆣ쎿쒶7000ꆫ8000풪,뛸훖솸뗄췁뗘쒶닺뒿쫕틦뷶100뛠(4)캬뮤짺컯뛠퇹탔ꆣ얩뗘쫇룷훖뚯횲컯뗄퓘쳥,쫇풪,헷뗘럑쿠떱폚70ꆫ80쓪훖솸뗄쫕틦[8]ꆣ헢뇊잮믱뗃럡뢻뗄컯훖풴뿢뫍믹틲뿢ꆣ즭쇖ꆢ닝뗘ꆢ쮮쳥ꆢ얩쳯뗈늻뫳뿉춶,믲듦죫틸탐좡샻쾢,퓚탭뛠탂탋돇쫐믲탂붨뷶짺뎤ퟅ듳솿뗄뚯컯,뮹벯뻛ퟅ듳솿뗄횲컯,틔벰훖샠랱쫐쟸ꆰ,쪳샻뷗닣ꆱ얩쏱늢늻짙볻,뮹폐돇쫐릤ퟷ믺믡룼뛠ꆢ뛠뗄캢짺컯ꆣ헢킩뗘랽쫇짺컯웜쾢ꆢ뇓뮤ꆢ랱횳뫍쏙쪳뎡붻춨룼뇣샻ꆢ뷌폽룼랽뇣뗈웤쯼뫃뒦ꆣ돇쫐폃뗘닺짺뗄뷏쯹ꆣ룟뺻쫕틦듙쪹얩뗘폐ퟔ랢쿲돇쫐쇷뗄쟷쫆ꆣ(5)폅쏀뺰맛ꆣ쎣쎣뗄즭쇖ꆢ뾪삫뗄싌뗘ꆢ랱쎯뗄맻짧믡뺭볃뗄돖탸랢햹,얩뗘췢늿킧틦돉캪튻룶훘튪뗄풰ꆢ쓾뺲뗄뫾늴ꆢ뇰훂뗄쳯풰ꆢ헀럅뗄튰뮨뗈뻟폐웦틬럧맢뢣샻뫢솿횸뇪ꆣ쯦ퟅ얩뗘폃,짺첬뮷뺳훊솿쿂붵,죋쏇뫍쏀샶뗄뺰즫,뿉틔쮵쫇웄뻟뾪랢잱솦뗄싃폎풴ꆣ죋쏇룼맘탄솸쪳낲좫ꆢ짺컯뛠퇹탔ꆢ쮮풴놣뮤ꆢ릫훚붡뾵ꆢ췁뿉틔뒹뗶ꆢ쇔ꆢ튰펪ꆢ맛짍ꆢ택ꆢ쾷쮮뗈,틔쟗뷼ퟔ좻ꆢ폤죀붡뾵뗈랽쏦뗄짧믡ꆢ짺첬킧틦ꆣ뻍췁뗘풴뗄샻폃킧싊퓃짭탄ꆣ살뾴,늻뿉볲떥뗘틔풤웚럇얩샻폃뗄풤웚쫕틦뗄쳹쿖횵쫇럱뎬맽풤웚뗄얩뗘샻폃뗄쳹쿖횵ퟷ캪좷뚨폃폫럱뗄뇪2ꆡ얩뗘췢늿킧틦폫췁뗘뺺헹엤훃ힼ[9]ꆣ틔뺭볃뺻쫕틦ퟮ듳캪믹뒡뗄췁뗘풴엤훃룶쳥뻶얩뗘쿲돇쫐폃뗘쇷쪵훊쫇췁뗘퓚솽훖폃춾ꆪꆪꆪ얩닟늻뾼싇쓇킩쎻폐퓚쫐뎡훐뺭볃쳥쿖뗄췢늿킧틦,췹췹쟣튵샻폃폫돇쫐붨짨샻폃횮볤뗄뺺헹엤훃[6]ꆣ얩뗘돇쫐쇷쿲폚얩뗘쇷,쪹뗃얩뗘릩룸늻ퟣ,늻뷶쓑틔ퟔ뚯뗘쪵쿖뻶닟맽돌,튻냣톡퓱횱뷓뿉뗃뺻샻ퟮ룟뗄췁뗘쪹폃랽췁뗘샻폃뗄짧믡엁샛췐ퟮ폅,쿠랴뮹뎣뎣뿉쓜믡룸헻룶짧쪽ꆣ쒿잰뛾헟뿍맛듦퓚ퟅ뻞듳ퟢ쾶믲볛닮,얩뗘얩폃쿔훸믡듸살늻샻믲쯰쪧ꆣ맺볒쫇짧믡릫릲샻틦뗄캬뮤헟,본폚뗄짧믡킧틦폫짺첬킧틦췢늿뮯,췁뗘샻폃훷쳥뗄뺭볃샭탔얩뗘돇쫐쇷뗄늻뿉쓦탔,듓뎤풶맛뗣뫍좫뻖샻틦살뫢쫇ힷ쟳ퟔ짭샻틦ퟮ듳뮯,룶쳥샭탔뻶닟춨뎣뻍쫇붫얩뗘뺡솿,늻뷶뾼싇뺭볃샻틦,룼뾼싇짧믡킧틦뫍짺첬킧틦ꆣ쏦뿉쓜캪돇쫐폃뗘ꆣ뛔쫐뎡믺훆쿂룶쳥얩뗘놣뮤솿뗍폚짧믡ퟮ폅솿,틗퓬돉쓑튻랽쏦,쿠뛔뷏뗍뗄얩닺욷볛룱폫뷏룟뗄얩튵돉놾붵틔쏖늹뗄솸쪳낲좫폫짺첬킧틦쯰쪧,웤샭탔톡퓱춨뎣뻍쫇뗍쇋얩뗘얩폃뗄뺻쫕틦ꆣ쫗쿈,뎤웚틔살,컒맺릤얩닺욷쪵쪩믽벫뗄얩뗘놣뮤,벴맺볒듓짧믡ퟮ폅돶랢,퓋폃헾닟횮볤듦퓚볛룱보떶닮ꆣ듓1996쓪쟯벾뾪쪼,얩닺욷볛룱듫쪩살뷢뻶췁뗘샻폃룶쳥뻶닟폫짧믡뻶닟횮볤늻쿠튻훂솬탸54룶퓂돊뗍쏔ힴ첬,늢쟒듓쟷쫆짏럖컶,컒맺얩닺욷뗄쎬뛜ꆣ볛룱짏짽뿕볤늢늻듳[1]ꆣ웤듎,얩튵돉놾튻냣럖캪짺닺탔돉놾뫍럇짺닺탔돉놾(벴얩쏱뢺떣)ꆣퟔ1990쓪틔살,컒3ꆡ쿖탐얩뗘놣뮤헾닟뗄좱쿝벰룄뷸쮼슷맺얩닺욷짺닺탔돉놾욽뻹쎿쓪틔풼10%뗄쯙뛈뗝퓶ꆣ뻝ꆡ헾닟좱쿝춳볆,캴뿛돽볛룱틲쯘,1994-1999쓪5쓪볤,좫맺얩쏱죋퇏샷뗄잿훆탔뗄얩뗘돇쫐쇷뿘훆헾닟,뛔쳡룟췁뗘뻹뒿쫕죫ꆢ죋뻹볒춥뺭펪뒿쫕죫,럖뇰쓪뻹뗝퓶%ꆢ풴엤훃킧싊ꆢ뛴횹듳솿폅훊얩뗘쎤쒿컞탲뗄쇷쪧쫇뇘튪%,뛸얩쏱뢺떣죧쮰뿮ꆢ벯쳥쳡쇴뫍첯엉좴럖뇰퓶뎤뗄,쟒좡뗃튻뚨돉킧,떫웤좱랦쫐뎡샭쓮,췹췹뻍쿔뗃솦늻%ꆢ%[7]ꆣ쯤좻2003쓪쟯,뎤웚뗍쏔뗄얩닺욷볛듓탄ꆣ뗘랽헾뢮춨맽얩뗘쇷,틔뗘짺닆ퟷ캪놾믽샛뗄룱춻좻짏퇯(얩닺욷볛룱짏헇폫솸쪳복닺택웝쿠맘,뛸솸ퟮ병톡퓱,뾪랢짌톰쟳돇쿧붻듭쟸솮볛얩뗘틔쪹샻죳ퟮ듳ꆤ84ꆤ
쯯몣뇸뗈:얩뗘췢늿킧틦쓚퓚뮯폫얩뗘돇쫐쇷뿘훆뮯ꆣ횻튪얩뗘쇷쯹뗃뺻샻듳폚캪듋떣떱뗄럧쿕(뒦럖ꆢ믽벫탔믲룼폐믽벫탔뗄탐뚯,얩쏱닅뿉쓜믡ퟔ뻵룄솼,ퟔ뒦랣뗈),얩뗘쇷쿖쿳뻍뿉쓜쫊쪱랢짺ꆣ뻍얩쏱벯쳥믲뻵캬뮤,훰늽탎돉뿉돖탸탔뗄솼탔톭뮷,얩뗘놣뮤헾닟튲룶쳥뛸퇔,웤룶쳥뻶닟돽뾼싇뺭볃뇈뷏샻틦췢,늻짙얩쏱닅쯣쫇돉릦뗄ꆣ평듋,늻럁뿉뾼싇퓚쪵쪩잿훆탔얩뗘놣뮤룼훘쫓얩뗘뗄짧믡놣헏릦쓜(틲얩듥짧믡놣쿕쫐뎡좱쪧뛸헾닟뗄춬쪱,붫얩뗘췢늿킧틦퓚뺭볃짏뗃틔쳥쿖,쳡룟얩듦퓚)틲뛸죔믡놣폐얩뗘ꆣ쇭튻늿럖얩쏱,벴쪹튲믡뾼싇뗘킧틦,탞헽얩뗘풴볛횵움볛횸뇪쳥쾵,틽떼룶쳥뻶닟얩뗘뗄짧믡놣헏릦쓜,떫얩뗘쫕틦뗄뗍킧탔폫럧쿕탔퓚쿠럻뫏짧믡뻶닟,볈쓜폐킧뗘뿘훆얩뗘돇쫐쇷,폖뿉볦맋떱돌뛈짏믡죵뮯얩뗘뗄짧믡놣헏볛횵,뛸뻍튽ꆢ뷌폽뗈뾪떽얩뗘놣뮤뗄릫욽탔ꆣ쿺럑폃죕틦룟헇,틲뛸룼힢훘뛌웚뺭볃샻틦믲풤웚돇쫐닺튵쫕틦,춨뎣믡쿠냩샍뚯솦틆,웺룻믲쿻복얩뗘춶4ꆡ얩뗘췢늿킧틦뺭볃벤샸릹쿫,얩뗘훊솿쿂붵,캪얩뗘폃뒴퓬쇋쳵볾ꆣ쯻쏇훐튻킩죋튲좷뛔폚헽췢늿탔뗄쓚퓚뮯,훷튪뺭볃랽램폐:늹쳹ꆢ닺좨쪵믱뗃쇋뇈훖뗘룟뗃뛠뗄럇얩쫕틦,헢랴맽살폖믡펰쿬떽붻틗뗈,뛸닺좨뗄훷튪릦쓜쫇틽떼죋쏇쪵쿖붫췢늿탔뷏듳쓇킩놣폐얩뗘룻ퟷ얩쏱듓쫂얩튵짺닺뗄믽벫탔ꆣ뛸쟒쯦뗘쓚퓚뮯뗄벤샸ꆣ틀뻝뿆쮹뗄쮵램,쯹폐췢늿킧틦컊쳢뗄ퟅ헷뗘늹뎥훆뛈뗄훰늽췪짆,죧폃낲훃늹훺럑(퇸샏놣쿕놾훊뻍쫇닺좨컊쳢ꆣ횻튪닺좨뷧뚨쏷좷,탐캪죋횮볤뗄붻럑)뛔펦얩뗘뗄짧믡놣헏볛횵룸폨늹뎥,쪧뗘얩쏱뗄짧믡틗뻍쓜떼훂췢늿킧펦뗄폐킧엤훃[10]ꆣ뛸룹뻝Hallowell뛔놣헏샻틦펦붫죕틦룄짆,헢쫇컰펹훃틉뗄,떫춬쪱돇쿧붻ꆰ닆닺ꆱ뗄뚨틥[11],뿉횪얩뗘풴닺짺뗄췢늿킧틦뻹뿉쫓듭쟸얩쏱뛔놣폐얩뗘틔쳡릩짧믡놣헏뗄틀삵뿉쓜튲믡복캪폐볛횵뗄ꆰ닆닺ꆱꆣ본폚듋,뿉뾼싇퓶짨얩뗘췢늿킧틦닆짙ꆣ헢쪹뗃룼뛠얩쏱헤쾧얩뗘뗄맛쓮뷸튻늽떭뮯,틢폻얩닺좨,좻뫳뷧뚨쮭펵폐듋쿮좨샻,늢솢램놣헏횮ꆣ뗘쇷짵훁횱뷓춶믺죫쫐쒱샻[8]ꆣꆡ닺좨붻틗샭싛쒣탍뺿웤룹풴,쿠떱돌뛈짏퓚폚얩뗘놣뮤ퟷ캪튻쿮뻟폐볙짨짧믡폐죽훖죋:얩뗘쯹폐헟ꆢ얩뗘쯹폐헟틔췢뗄ꆰ믽벫뗄ꆱ믲ꆰ헽뗄ꆱ췢늿탔뺭볃믮뚯,쪵훊쫇믹폚짧믡뿉돖짧믡릫훚ꆢ맺볒,쟒쯻쏇쿠뮥뛀솢;맺볒ퟷ캪짧믡릫훚뗄듺탸랢햹뛸탎돉뗄죋샠탐캪,웤쒿뗄쫇놣뮤죋샠삵틔짺듦뗄샭죋,뢺퓰뷧뚨폫놣헏얩뗘췢늿킧틦닆닺좨ꆣ춬쪱볙짨얩얩뗘풴,놣헏헻룶짧믡뗄솸쪳낲좫,캬뮤릫훚붡뾵뫍짺뗘쯹폐헟얩뗘얩폃뗄뺻쫕틦(냼삨얩뗘짧믡놣헏볛횵)캪첬욽뫢,좻뛸헢쿮믝벰헻룶짧믡뫍죋샠뗄릫틦탐캪좴늻쫇Na,돇쫐폃뗘풤웚뺻쫕틦캪Nu,얩뗘췢늿킧틦캪Eaꆣ맺볒평짧믡쫜틦좺쳥릲춬돐떣,뛸쫇탨튪놣뮤쟸뗄얩쏱틔얩뗘뗄샭탔톡퓱쫇얩뗘놣뮤,뛸얩뗘쯹폐헟늻뾼싇얩뗘췢늿킧뗄뗍놨돪뫍룟믺믡돉놾캪듺볛,컾짼얩뗘랢햹뗄뺭볃샻틦틦뗄ퟮ돵룶쳥뻶닟쫇얩뗘쇷,퓲폐Na<Nu,Na+Ea>Nuꆣ살뮻좡짺첬욽뫢뫍솸쪳낲좫뗈,퓶뷸좫짧믡뗄뢣샻,좴뗃죴붫얩뗘췢늿킧틦닆닺좨뢳폨얩뗘쯹폐헟,짧믡릫훚횧뢶늻떽뫏샭늹뎥ꆣ쿠랴,놣뮤쟸췢얩뗘뾪랢쎻폐쿞훆,뿉틔얩뗘쯹폐헟튻뇊얩뗘캬돖얩폃틔쳡릩췢늿킧틦뗄럑폃Ea쿲룟볛횵뗄폃뗘랽쪽틆,헢훖췁뗘퓶횵늿럖쫇퓚뺭볃짧믲릺싲,틲Na+Ea-Nu>0,얩뗘쯹폐헟붫캬돖얩뗘얩폃;믡뷸늽뗄쳵볾쿂닺짺뗄,늿럖펦믘삡맺볒뫍짧믡,뿉틔늹죴붫얩뗘췢늿킧틦닆닺좨뢳폨짧믡릫훚,얩뗘쯹폐헟죴튪뎥놣뮤쟸놣뮤헟틲얩뗘놣뮤뛸헐훂뗄뺭볃쯰쪧,떫쫇췁뗘붫얩뗘폃,풤웚뿉믱뗃Nu-Na뗄뺻샻,떫뇘탫횧뢶짧믡쪹폃헟좴붫퓶횵늿럖쓉캪벺폐ꆣ쿔좻,돇쿧붻듭쟸얩뗘놣릫훚럑폃Ea틔릺싲닺좨믲늹뎥ꆣ틲풤웚뺻샻Nu-Na<뮤쫇잷좱릫욽뗄,얩뗘놣뮤뗄뺭볃벤샸튲늻ퟣꆣEa,얩뗘붫캬돖얩폃,럻뫏짧믡ퟮ폅쒿뇪,떫듋훖ퟶ램쿔좻ꆡ룄뷸쮼슷잷좱릫욽ꆣ맺볒뛔얩뗘놣뮤뗄첬뛈럇뎣볡뻶,뷼쓪살닉좡ꆰ쫀뷧ꆡ닺좨붻틗뻟쳥퓋ퟷ짏ퟮ퇏룱룻뗘놣뮤헾닟ꆱ,뻍돤럖뇭쏷쇋웤뿘훆얩뗘돇쫐ꆡ삩듳얩쏱퓚얩뗘쇷훐뗄뻶닟좨쇷뗄뻶탄;뗘랽헾뢮폫뾪랢짌듓얩뗘쇷훐쓜믱뗃뷏룟얩쏱벯쳥믲룶쳥뛔얩뗘돇쫐쇷뗄뻶닟좨폐쿞,놣뮤쫕틦,쯻쏇놣뮤얩뗘뗄뚯솦쿔뗃늻ퟣꆣ횻폐쯵킡얩뗘폫돇얩뗘뗄틢풸뻍뷶뷶쫇틢풸,뛸늻쓜뢶훮폚쪵볊ꆣ펦룄룯췁쫐폃뗘뗄뇟볊쫕틦뗄닮뻠,닅폐훺폚듙웤ퟔ풸짙햼얩뗘,뗘폃돌탲,쪹얩쏱퓚얩뗘쇷훐쿭폐룼듳뗄뻶닟좨,돤뛸벯풼샻폃듦솿췁뗘;얩뗘ퟷ캪얩쏱뗄짺닺뫍짺믮뗄훘럖쳥쿖얩쏱뛔얩뗘뗄쯹폐좨ꆣ뛔폚놣뮤쟸쓚뗄얩뗘돇쫐튪뎡쯹뫍짺듦믹뒡,얩쏱놾펦폐놣뮤얩뗘뗄잿쇒풸췻,횻쇷,탫뺭뺭펪헟춬틢폫얩쏱벯쳥쳖싛춨맽ꆣ늻맽쯻쏇놣뮤얩뗘좱랦릫욽듽폶폫뺭볃폕틲,맊뛸퓚쿠떱ꆡ볓잿얩뗘짧믡벰짺첬킧틦움맀돌뛈짏듬짋쇋웤놣뮤얩뗘뗄믽벫탔ꆣ죴쓜퓶잿얩뗘놣뮤퇐뺿얩뗘뗄췢늿킧틦볛횵(몬짧믡컈뚨볛횵폫짺첬볛헾닟뗄릫욽탔,뒴퓬뺭볃폕틲,붫ퟮ맣듳뗄얩쏱듓잿훆뗄ꆢ횵)폫짧믡놣헏볛횵(럇쫐뎡ꆢ럇췢늿탔볛횵),좫쏦뇈뷏얩컞믽벫탔믲폐튻뚨믽벫탔뗄놣뮤탐캪뇤캪튻훖ퟔ풸뗄ꆢ폐뗘폫풤웚돇쫐폃뗘뗄킧틦,뷡뫏돇쿧붻듭쟸ꆰ믹놾얩쳯놣ꆤ85ꆤ
훐맺죋뿚ꆤ풴폫뮷뺳ꆡ2006쓪ꆡ뗚1웚뮤쟸맦뮮ꆱ,폐훺폚룼뿆톧뗘뷧뚨돶얩뗘놣뮤쟸폫랢햹쟸ꆣ룼볓돉캪얩쏱뗄ퟔ뻵탐캪ꆣ쇭튻훖ퟶ램뻍쫇붫얩뗘췢늿춬쪱,얩뗘췢늿킧틦뗄맀쯣튲쫇얩뗘췢늿킧틦닺좨붻틗볛킧틦닆닺좨맩맺볒쯹폐,죎뫎떥캻뫍룶죋틢폻얩뗘폃탫뗄훘튪틀뻝ꆣ뛸쟒얩뗘볛횵뗄좫쏦움볛,폐훺폚룄뇤뎤웚쿲맺볒릺싲듋쿮좨샻ꆣ듓놣헏얩쏱릫욽샻틦ꆢ췪짆얩쏱벯틔살죋쏇탎돉뗄뒫춳얩뗘볛횵맛,듙쪹죋쏇훘탂짳쫓얩뗘쳥췁뗘닺좨쳥쾵,붨솢럻뫏쫐뎡뺭볃쳥훆뗄얩뗘폃훆뛈킧틦,볓짮뛔얩뗘놣뮤훘튪탔뗄샭뷢,퓶잿틀램놣뮤얩뗘룄룯떼쿲살뾴,뇊헟죏캪얩뗘췢늿킧틦닆닺좨맩얩쏱쯹폐뗄ퟔ뻵탔,믽벫닎폫얩뗘놣뮤뗄룷쿮탐뚯,뒴퓬솼뫃뗄얩룼캪뫏샭ꆣ룼뷸튻늽뗘,뿉럱뷧뚨얩뗘쯹폐헟닺좨늢붨솢뗘놣뮤짧믡럕캧ꆣ쫐뎡붻틗랽쪽?춬쪱쫜맺볒뗄췁뗘맦뮮뫍폅쿈릺싲좨뗄쇵믛랼퓸뛔뫓쓏낲퇴쫐붼쟸얩뗘짧믡볛횵솿뮯뷸탐뻸뛔뿘훆,쪹놣뮤쟸얩뗘췢늿킧틦볛횵퓚붻틗훷쳥욽뗈ꆢ퇐뺿,웤퓋폃룻뗘뾪뿑럑쳦듺얩뗘뗄짧믡컈뚨릦쓜볛횵,ퟔ평첸에훐뗃틔쪵쿖ꆣ퇸샏놣쿕럑쳦듺얩뗘뗄짧믡놣헏볛횵,쪵샽닢쯣돶떱죋뻹ꆡ닺좨늹뎥횮췢뗄웤쯼엤쳗듫쪩룻뗘캪쪱,짧믡놣헏볛횵캪18췲풪/hm2;짧믡얩뗘폐킧놣뮤쳡릩췢늿킧틦늻펦횻놻뾴돉쫇놣뮤쟸컈뚨릦쓜볛횵풼캪12췲풪/hm2뗈[12]ꆣ틅몶뗄쫇샠쯆퇐퓚풴뿉돖탸샻폃짏ꆢ놣뮤짺첬뮷뺳짏틥늻죝듇뗄퓰죎,뺿늢늻뛠볻ꆣ뛔폚얩뗘짺첬볛횵,쓑폃뒫춳랽램솿뮯ꆣ뮹펦뾴돉쫇얩듥뿉틔믱뗃뗄튻룶릫욽랢햹믺믡뫍짧믡릲풴뺭볃톧볒뒴퓬쇋뛠훖랽램,틔뛔룷훖쟩뿶쿂뗄듋샠풴춬뗄퓰죎ꆣ퓚쒿잰얩뗘뺭볃킧틦풶뗍폚돇쫐폃뗘킧틦뗄ힴ뿶뷸탐움볛ꆣ웤뫋탄쫇붨솢볙쿳쫐뎡춨맽룷훖쫖뛎(쏦쟩뿶쿂,떥뒿뗄쫊떱뗄얩뗘늹뎥뿉쓜뮹늻릻,뮹펦닉좡웤뛔쏦ꆢ탅몯뫍뗧뮰뗈돩퇹뗷닩)살좷뚨죋쏇뛔뮷뺳컯욷뗄쯼쿠펦엤쳗헾닟듫쪩,쪹놣뮤쟸얩쏱뫍얩튵뗃떽룼뛠뗄랢횧뢶틢풸ꆣ죧Bergstrom뗈뛔쓏뾨싞살뗄웕춨얩폃뗘뺰맛햹ꆣ죧퓚WTOꆶ얩튵킭틩ꆷ뿲볜쿂,믽벫샻폃ꆰ믆쿤ꆱ헾닟훐뷸탐퇐뺿,뗃돶쎿뮧욽뻹튻쓪뗄횧뢶틢풸쫇7ꆫ12쏀풪,뗄샽췢맦뚨뫍ꆰ싌쿤ꆱ헾닟,볓듳얩튵늹쳹;볓듳춶(죧믹쎿펢쒶튻쓪뗄ퟜ횧뢶틢풸캪18ꆫ46쏀풪[13]ꆣ첨췥톧헟쿴놾얩쳯췁뗘헻샭ꆢ얩튵ퟛ뫏뾪랢)붨짨얩튵릤돌짨쪩믲얩뺰뾬뛔얩뗘뮷뺳킧틦뷸탐움볛,뗃돶얩뗘풴뮷뺳킧틦뗘놣뮤짨쪩,붵뗍얩쏱놣뮤얩뗘뗄돉놾;볓뿬복쏢얩튵쮰횵,욽뻹쎿죋쎿쓪뗄풸뢶뷰뛮캪10604풪[5]ꆣ컒맺듳슽뛔럑붵뗍얩쏱뢺떣;볓듳뛔얩듥뗄틆횧뢶쓜솦,훰늽캪얩듋랽쏦뗄퇐뺿뮹뒦폚웰늽뷗뛎,쫂쪵짏죋쏇뛔얩뗘뗄횧뢶쏱쳡릩튻뚨탎쪽뗄짧믡놣헏ꆢ튽쇆놣쿕,퓶볓얩듥뷌폽춶틢풸틑듦퓚,뻝놨퓘,2000쓪11퓂,놱뺩뗄ꆰ럀훎즳뎾놩ꆢ죫뗈ꆣ탋붨뮤뺩쇖ꆱ듳탍릫틦믮뚯쫕떽짧믡뻨뿮뫍틥싴쫕죫췲풪ꆣ틲듋,헢킩킧틦뗄맀쯣쪵폐뇘튪뗃떽룼뛠훘쫓폫짮5ꆡ뷡ꆡ폯죫첽쳖ꆣ내헕룶쳥뻶닟맛,췁뗘풴평뇟볊닺횵뗍뗄얩튵쪹폃ꆡ맺볒릺싲얩쏱뗄췢늿킧틦닆닺좨캪닺횵뷏룟뗄돇쫐붨짨폃춾,뿉쳡룟뺭볃쫕틦,얩뗘틲돇쿧붻듭쟸얩뗘놣뮤쟸퓶짨얩뗘췢늿킧틦닆닺좨,쟥뛸믡ퟔ랢쿲돇쫐쇷ꆣ떫쫇죧맻뾼싇얩뗘짧믡뫍뮷뺳킧컺뗘뷧뚨뢳폨쳘뚨뛔쿳,튪뺡뿉쓜뗘복짙붻틗돉놾,캬돖틦,헢훖폃쫇럱헦뗄뿉쪹컒쏇짺믮뗃룼뫃?맺볒믹폚짧헢쿮닺좨뗄붻틗쮳뎩,놣헏닺좨뗄돖폐ꆣ튻훖ퟶ램쫇맺볒믡ퟮ폅훆뚨뗄얩뗘놣뮤헾닟볈튪뾿헾뢮,폖튪ퟰ훘쫐뎡,틔램맦믲쳵샽뗄랽쪽붫듋닺좨뢳폨얩쏱,맺볒ퟷ캪짧믡릫펦퓋폃잿훆탔뗄맜샭쫖뛎폫뺭볃쫖뛎뗈쿠뷡뫏,듙뷸췁뗘훚뗄듺샭죋횧뢶얩쏱튻뇊벤샸놣돖얩뗘췢늿킧틦뗄럑폃릫욽폫폐킧샻폃,쪵쿖뺭볃ꆢ짧믡ꆢ짺첬킧틦뗄춳튻ꆣꆪꆪꆪ얩뗘놣뮤늹뎥쿮믹뷰,쿱쏀맺뗈랢듯맺볒뗄얩튵늹(뇠벭:쳯ꆡ뫬)뎥헾닟,튻뚨돌뛈짏튲쫇헾뢮튪쟳얩뎡훷럅웺늿럖좨솦틔닎뾼컄쿗(References)믱뗃솼뫃짧믡폫짺첬볛횵뗄튻훖볛룱횧뢶ꆣ늹뎥믹뷰뿉[1]잮훒뫃.훐맺얩뗘놣뮤:샭싛폫헾닟럖컶[J].맜샭쫀뷧,2003,듓틔쿂춾뺶믱뗃:ꋙ쳡룟룻뗘햼폃쮰ꆣ쯦ퟅ짧믡뺭볃뗄랢(10):60ꆫ70.[:Theory햹andPoliciesAnalysis[J].ManagementWorld,2003,(10):60ꆫ70.],컯볛쮮욽늻뛏짏헇,룻뗘햼폃쮰펦쿠펦쳡룟,듓쮰쫕훐돩좡튻늿럖폃폚늹뎥믹뷰;ꋚ췁뗘돶죃뷰짏붻맺볒ꆣ벴룄[2]헅낲슼.뿉틆랢햹좨폫얩뗘돇쫐쇷뿘훆[J].훐맺얩듥맛달,뇤쿖퓚뗄맘폚탂퓶붨짨폃뗘돶죃뷰뗄럖엤훆뛈,평맺볒폫2000,(2):20ꆫ25.[뗘랽헾뢮럖뇰햼andRural2urbanLandConversioncontrol[J].ChinaRuralSurvey,2000,30%폫70%뇤캪맺볒쳡룟뗘랽헾뢮짏붻(2):20ꆫ25.]쫕틦뇈샽,늢듓훐쳡좡튻뚨쫽솿뗄늹뎥믹뷰;ꋛ맄샸짧믡[3]믆맣폮,닌퓋쇺.돇쫐뇟풵듸얩뗘쇷쟽뚯틲쯘벰룻뗘놣뮤뛔닟췅쳥폫룶죋뻨뿮퓞훺뗈ꆣ죧듋,튻랽쏦쪹뗘랽헾뢮ꆢ뾪랢[J].뢣붨뗘샭,2002,17(1):6ꆫ9.[HuangGuangyu,CaiYunlong.짌ꆢ짧믡릫훚퓶잿얩뗘놣뮤틢쪶,뛴횹싒햼샄폃얩뗘쿖쿳,DrivingForcesofLandConversionandFarmlandConservationinUrban쇭튻랽쏦폐훺폚퓶뷸얩쏱놣뮤얩뗘뗄믽벫탔,죃얩뗘놣뮤FringeZone[J].FujianGeography,2002,17(1):6ꆫ9.]ꆤ86ꆤ
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