+2 April 2009 Produced and issued by: ABN AMRO Bank NV Hong Kong Branch Jiangxi Copper Positive factors priced in Sell Target price Management expects no meaningful mine output growth until 2011. We believeHK$ (from HK$) the positive factors in the copper outlook are priced into the shares. Our 2009Price earnings forecast is 48% below consensus. With a demanding valuation, weHK$ maintain a Sell rating and increase our target price to per share. Short term (0-60 days) n/a Market relative to region Key forecasts Overweight FY07AFY08A FY09FFY10FFY11FRevenue (Rmbm) 43,361 53,907 30,851 34,490 36,069 EBITDA (Rmbm) 6,660 4,406 2,353 3,809 5,100Pr ice performance Reported net profit (Rmbm) 4,534 2,285 1,707%2,577 (1M)(3M)(12M)Normalised net profit (Rmbm)¹ 4,534 2,285 1,707 2,577 Price (HK$) EPS Absolute (%) per share Rel market (%) yield (%) Rel sector (%) Normalised PE (x) & Apr 06Apr 07Apr 08EV/EBITDA (x) 35Price/book value (x) 30ROIC (%) 2520year to Dec, fully dilutedUse of %& indicates that the line item has changed by at least 5%. 151. Post-goodwill amortisation and pre-exceptional items Accounting standard: Local GAAP 10Source: Company data, ABN AMRO forecasts 502008 results below our expectation on commodity derivative loss 2008 net profit of (down 50% yoy) was 30% below our expectation, largely on a Market capitalisation derivative loss of . Management explained the shortfall as its normal practice of HK$ (US$) hedging against processed copper sales, and expects to continue this practice in 2009. If we Average (12M) daily turnover strip out the losses, we estimate 4Q08 operating earnings were slightly above breakeven. HK$ (US$) RIC: , 358 HK Priced at close of business 1 Apr 2009. Slow growth in mine output; we expect self-sufficiency to remain low in 2009-10 Source: Bloomberg The company guided that its mine production will increase only 6% in 2009 to 169k tonnes, vs our forecast of 170k tonnes, and expects mine output to increase to 220k tonnes only in 2011. We expect the copper self-sufficiency rate to remain low over 2009-10, at 22%. Near-term demand improving, but the positive factors already seem priced in We expect near-term copper prices to be supported by seasonal demand and strong copper import data in March/April on State Reserve Bureau (SRB) restocking. However, we believe the positive factors are priced into the shares and find the current valuation demanding, implying a US$5,500/tonne copper price vs US$4,000 now. Analysts Earnings to drop 69%, likely to disappoint the market; maintain Sell Aaron Ge, CFA Hong Kong We expect the 1H09 net margin to remain thin as the copper price now is flat vs the 4Q08 +852 2700 5858 average and the smelting segment is being dragged down by a lower sulphuric acid price. @ We increase our FY09 earnings forecast 4%, based on rising product volumes guided by the Jeannette Sim, CFA company. Our estimate is 48% below Bloomberg consensus. Our new target price of +852 2700 5834 @ HK$ (from HK$) is based on an unchanged FY09F PB on 3-8% ROAE over 2009-10F and a slightly adjusted BVPS. We maintain a Sell rating. 438/F Cheung Kong Center, 2 Queen's Road Central, Hong Kong Important disclosures can be found in the Disclosures Appendix. +ABN AMRO group companies are subsidiary undertakings of The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc. Equity | China | Materials
Positives priced in Table 1 : Key quarterly financials* Rmbm 4Q071Q082Q083Q084Q08% yoy% qoq20072008% yoyRevenue12,84611,88714,94314,71412,149-5%-17%43,36153,90724%Operating profit 1,1031,7911,7101,560(1,498)-236%-196%5,9213,563-40%Net profit 8811,2571,522920(1,414)-260%-254%4,5342,285-50% EBIT margin 9%15%11%11%-12%14%7%Net margin 7%11%10%6%-12%10%4%*Quarterly financials are based on PRC GAAP and loss of derivative contracts, and inventory write-down are included in operating profit calculation. The company booked net loss on derivative financial instruments and Rmb579m write-down of inventories as at end 2008. Source: Company data Table 2 : Production growth in 2009F 20082009FyoychangeSelf mine production (tonne) 159,000170,0007%Copper cathode (tonne) 702,000800,00014%Copper wire rods and foil (tonne) 462,000460,0000%Gold (kg) 16,30020,00023%Silver (kg) 408,000430,0005%Sulphuric acid (tonne) 2,180,0002,200,0001%Source: Company data, ABN AMRO forecasts Table 3 : Key assumption 200720082009F2010F 2010FProduction Smelter output (tonnes) 550,000 702,000 800,000 850,000 850,000 Mine output (tonnes) 150,000 159,000 170,000 180,000 220,000 Self-sufficiency (%) 27%23%21%21% 26% Sales Copper cathode sales (tonnes) 380,000 480,000 480,000 480,000 480,000 Fabricated copper sales (tonnes) 378,000 438,900 450,800 470,400 470,400 Copper price (US$/tonne) ABN AMRO commodities team 3,525 4,500 5,250 LME forward curve 3,862 4,070 4,120 Average copper price 7,119 6,938 3,694 4,285 4,685 % change yoy 6%-3%-47%16% 9% TC/RC/PP TC (US$/tonne) RC (USc/lb) P - - - - -Realised TC/RC/PP (USc/lb) Sulphuric acid (Rmb/tonne) 492 1,194 200 250250 FX: Rmb/US$ Source: Company data, ABN AMRO forecasts Table 4 : Key forecast revisions NewPrevious Changes 2009F2010F2011F2009F2010F2009F2010FNet profit (Rmb m) 715 1,707 2,577 685 1,620 4%5%EPS (Rmb) 4%5%BVPS (Rmb) 3%3%ROAE3%8%11%3%8%2%2%Source: ABN AMRO forecasts Jiangxi Copper | Investment View | 2 April 2009 2
Chart 1 : Self-mine output and self-sufficiency ratio Chart 2 : SHFE copper price vs Jiangxi Copper's share 2007-11F (tonnes) price (Rmb/tonne, HK$) 250,00030%80,0002525%200,0002060,00020%15150,00040,00015%10100,00010%20,000550,0005%00-0%Jan-08Apr-08Jul-08Oct-08Jan-09200720082009F2010F2011FMine outputSelf-sufficiency (%) - RHSSHFE copper priceJiangxi share price - RHSSource: Company data, ABN AMRO forecasts Source: Bloomberg Chart 3 : Monthly Chinese refined copper import Chart 4 : Monthly Chinese scrap copper import (tonne 000) (tonne 000) 3007006002505002004001503001002005010000Source: China Metals Source: China Metals Chart 5 : SHFE copper price 80,0001Q08 = 6431370,0002Q08 = 63,3793Q08 = 60,16760,00050,00040,0004Q08 = 32,1371Q09 = 29,52630,00020,00010,0000Source: Bloomberg Jiangxi Copper | Investment View | 2 April 2009 3 Jan-07Feb-07Mar-07Apr-07May-07Jun-07Jul-07Aug-07Sep-07Oct-07Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08May-08Jan-08Jun-08Jul-08Feb-08Aug-08Sep-08Oct-08Mar-08Nov-08Dec-08Apr-08Jan-09Feb-09May-08Jun-08Jul-08Jan-07Feb-07Aug-08Mar-07Apr-07May-07Sep-08Jun-07Jul-07Aug-07Oct-08Sep-07Oct-07Nov-08Nov-07Dec-07Jan-08Dec-08Feb-08Mar-08Apr-08Jan-09May-08Jun-08Feb-09Jul-08Aug-08Sep-08Mar-09Oct-08Nov-08Dec-08Jan-09Feb-09
Chart 6 : PB vs ROAE %45%%%%%20%%%%-0%010203040506070809PBRROAE - RHSSource: Bloomberg, ABN AMRO forecasts Jiangxi Copper | Investment View | 2 April 2009 4
Income statement Rmbm FY07AFY08AFY09FFY10FFY11FRevenue4336153907308513449036069Cost of sales -35503-46590-27331-29446-29757Operating costs -1198-2911-1166-1235-1212EBITDA66604406235338095100DDA & Impairment (ex gw) (amort/impaired) n/an/an/an/an/aEBIT59213563154929504147Net interest (pre-tax) gain / (loss) n/an/an/an/an/aExceptionals (pre-tax) n/an/an/an/an/aOther pre-tax items PTP interests (post-tax) n/an/an/an/an/aOther post-tax items net profit Items Excl. GW net profit : Company data, ABN AMRO forecasts year to Dec Balance sheet Rmbm FY07AFY08AFY09FFY10FFY11FCash & market secs (1) current assets 1772214148126971404814437Tangible fixed assets 1276214053169031904421091Intang assets (incl gw) non-curr assets 11161413112311231123Total assets 3513134505330493571937414Short term debt (2) 96023317281723171817Trade & oth current liab 44984847293434843408Long term debt (3) non-current liab liabilities 1510913386113851243411858Total equity (incl min) 2002221119216642328525556Total liab & sh equity 3513134505330493571937414Net debt (2+3-1) 73454267633376547894Source: Company data, ABN AMRO forecasts year ended Dec Cash flow statement Rmbm FY07AFY08AFY09FFY10FFY11FEBITDA66604406235338095100Change in working capital interest (pd) / rec paid oper cash items flow from ops (1) 16046249117618573187Capex (2) -2696-2469-3000-3000-3000Disposals/(acquisitions) investing cash flow n/an/an/an/an/aCash flow from invest (3) -2696-2469-3000-3000-3000Incr / (decr) in equity / (decr) in debt n/an/an/an/an/aOrdinary dividend paid dividends (4) n/an/an/an/an/aOther financing cash flow flow from fin (5) & disc ops (6) n/an/an/an/an/aInc/(decr) cash (1+3+5+6) FCF (1+2+4) in bold can be derived from the immediately preceding lines. year to DecSource: Company data, ABN AMRO forecasts Jiangxi Copper | Key Financial Data | 2 April 2009
Standard ratios Jiangxi Copper Aluminum Corp of China National Aluminium PerformanceFY07AFY08AFY09FFY10FFY11FFY09FFY10FFY11FFY09FFY10FFY11FSales growth (%) growth (%) growth (%) EPS growth (%) margin (%) margin (%) profit margin (%) on avg assets (%) on avg equity (%) (%) - WACC (%) year to Dec year to Dec year to MarValuationEV/sales (x) (x) @ tgt price (x) (x) capital (x) value (x) FCF yield (%) PE (x) PE @tgt price (x) yield (%) year to Dec year to Dec year to MarPer share data FY07AFY08AFY09FFY10FFY11F Solvency FY07AFY08AFY09FFY10FFY11FTot adj dil sh, ave (m) 30233023302330233023Net debt to equity (%) EPS debt to tot ass (%) EPS debt to EBITDA per share ratio (x) FCF per share CF int cov (x) value per sh cover (x) year to Dec year to DecPriced as follows: - HK$; - HK$; - Source: Company data, ABN AMRO forecasts Valuation methodology %45%%%%%20%%%%-0%010203040506070809PBRROAE - RHS Source: Company data, ABN AMRO forecasts Jiangxi Copper | Performance and Valuation | 2 April 2009
Company description Sell Price relative to country Jiangxi Copper is one of the largest copper players in China as, in 2008, the company had ore resources of about 18011m tonnes of copper. The company says it is expanding mining assets in Peru and Afghanistan with partners. Its160Guixi smelter, with projected capacity of more than 900,000 tonnes by 2010, will be the largest copper smelter and140refiner in China. 120100806040AprJulNovFebJunSepJanMayAugDecMar0606060707070808080809Strategic analysis Average SWOT company score: 3 Revenue mix, 2009F Strengths 3 Other metalsSilverPyrite 3%Copper 3%The company's scale and strong cash flows put it in a strong position when seeking acquisition opportunities in concentratescathode1%40%mining resources. Copper rods and wiresWeaknesses 2 38%Sulphuric acidOther scraps GoldJiangxi is self-sufficient for only one quarter of its concentrate requirement, and this is declining as the company1%and tradings12%2%expands smelting capacity. Therefore, it must rely upon external suppliers in a tight concentrate market, and pricing terms are not favourable. Source: ABN AMRO forecasts Opportunities 4 The company acquired mines from its parent company and from overseas in 2008, and we expect meaningfulMarket data earnings contribution from those mines after 2010. Headquarters Threats 1 15 Yejin Avenue, Guixi City, Jiangxi, 335424, Poor availability of copper concentrates could threaten the ability of smelters to operate smoothly, and we cannotChina rule out disruptions. Website Scoring range is 1-5 (high score is good) Shares in issue Freefloat 55% Majority shareholders Jiangxi Copper Corporation (42%) Country view Overweight Country rel to Asia Pacific Concerns about growth are now firmly in the spotlight, and we believe China has sufficient political will as well as 210fiscal elasticity to provide a potent economic antidote. The Rmb4trn stimulus does include investments that were190planned previously, but the key lies in accelerating such projects, especially with the external environment170faltering. Fiscal spending should be augmented by a looser monetary policy, giving administrators sufficientflexibility to combat any slowdown in money supply growth. We remain Overweight and are positive on Utilities,150Internet/ Media and non-dairy Staples. 130The country view is set in consultation with the relevant company analyst but is the ultimate responsibility of the Strategy Team. 11090AprJulOctFebJunSepJanMayAugDecApr0606060707070808080809 Competitive position Average competitive score: 3+ Broker recommendations Supplier power 2+ 12The tight supply of copper concentrates has eased in 2009. As a consequence, copper miners have less 10bargaining power now. 8Barriers to entry 3+ 6The Chinese government has imposed entry requirements for new smelters and refineries, including minimum4capacity of 100,000tpa. This should reduce the number of new entrants into the industry. 2Customer power 4- 0Copper is used by a wide range of industries, from power equipment to home appliances. There are manyBuyHoldSell customers but demand growth from end-user industries, such as property, is slowing. Source: Bloomberg Substitute products 3- With the strength in copper prices, there has been growing interest in substitute products such as aluminium, butthere has been no widespread substitution yet. Rivalry 1+ The company competes in the global commodity market, where there is limited scope for product differentiation. Scoring range 1-5 (high score is good) Plus = getting better Minus = getting worse Jiangxi Copper | Strategic and Competitive Overview | 2 April 2009
Recommendation structure Absolute performance, short term (trading) recommendation: A Trading Buyrecommendation implies upside of 5% or more and a Trading Sell indicates downside of 5% or more. Thetrading recommendation time horizon is 0-60 days. For Australian coverage, a Trading Buy recommendation implies upside of 5% or more from the suggested entry price range, and a Trading Sell recommendation implies downside of 5% or more from the suggested entry price range. The trading recommendation time horizon is 0-60 days. Absolute performance, long term (fundamental) recommendation: The recommendation is based on implied upside/downside for the stock from the target price. A Buy/Sell impliesupside/downside of 10% or more and a Hold less than 10%. For UK Small/Mid-Cap Analysis a Buy/Sell implies upside/downside of 10% or more, an Add/Reduce 5-10% and a Hold less than 5%. For UK-based Investment Funds research the recommendation structure is not based on upside/downside to the target price. Rather it is the subjective view of the analyst basedon an assessment of the resources and track record of the fund management company. For listed property trusts (LPT) or real estate investment trusts (REIT) the recommendation isbased upon the target price plus the dividend yield, ie total return. Performance parameters and horizon: Given the volatility of share prices and our pre-disposition not to change recommendations frequently, these performance parameters should beinterpreted flexibly. Performance in this context only reflects capital appreciation and the horizon is 12 months. Sector relative to market: The sector view relative to the market is the responsibility of the strategy team. Overweight/Underweight implies upside/downside of 10% or more and Neutral implies less than 10% upside/downside. Target price: The target price isthe level the stock should currently trade at if the market were to accept the analyst's view of the stock and if the necessary catalysts were in place to effect this change in perception withinthe performance horizon. In this way, therefore, the target price abstracts from the need to take a view on the market or sector. If it is felt that the catalysts are not fully in place to effect are-rating of the stock to its warranted value, the target price will differ from 'fair' value. Distribution of recommendations The tables below show the distribution of ABN AMRO's recommendations (both long term and trading). The first column displays the distribution of recommendations globally and thesecond column shows the distribution for the region. Numbers in brackets show the percentage for each category where ABN AMRO has an investment banking relationship. Long Term recommendations (as at 02 Apr 2009) Trading recommendations (as at 02 Apr 2009) Global total (IB%)Asia Pacific totalGlobal total (IB%)Asia Pacific total (IB%)(IB%)Buy 462 (5)300 (0)Trading Buy 3 (0)3 (0)Add 0 (0)0 (0) Hold 389 (1)240 (0) Reduce 0 (0)0 (0) Sell 173 (1)105 (1)Trading Sell 3 (0)3 (0)Total (IB%) 1024 (3)645 (0)Total (IB%) 6 (0)6 (0)Source: ABN AMRO Source: ABN AMRO Valuation and risks to target price Jiangxi Copper (RIC: , Rec: Sell, CP: HK$, TP: HK$): Key risks to our PB-based target price and recommendation include: a sharp recovery in China's property and utility market; faster-than-expected policy implementation in infrastructure construction; sharply rising international copper and sulphuric acid prices; and good forecasting of copper pricesby management. Jiangxi Copper coverage data Stock performance, recommendations and coverage (as at 1 ApTrading recommendation history r 2009) (as at 02 Apr 2009) Date Rec Analyst n/a Source: ABN AMRO Aaron Ge, CFA started covering this stock on 30 Jan 08 Moved to new recommendation structure between 1 November 2005 and 31 January 2006 Source: ABN AMRO Regulatory disclosures Subject companies: Jiangxi Copper | Disclosures Appendix | 2 April 2009
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On a general basis, the efficacy of recommendations is a factor in theperformance appraisals of analysts. ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________For a discussion of the valuation methodologies used to derive our price targets and the risks that could impede their achievement, please refer to our latest published research on thosestocks at . Disclosures regarding companies covered by ABN AMRO group can be found on ABN AMRO's research website at . ABN AMRO's policy on managing research conflicts of interest can be found at Should you require additional information please contact the relevant ABN AMRO research team or the author(s) of this report. Jiangxi Copper | Disclosures Appendix | 2 April 2009
