The war with Iran is now a month old, spot Brent oil price has surged +50% in the
past month to US$110/bbl at time of this writing, the growth and inflation trade-off
has worsened globally per latest GS macro forecast revisions, and Chinese stocks
have corrected 4-6% alongside their DM and EM equity peers since the war started
on February 28. In this China Musings, we take stock of the developments in the
Middle East, summarize our key market thoughts and observations, and address
investor FAQs regarding Chinese equities as the largest oil disruption in history
continues to unfold.
China looks better placed than most in this oil shock1.
Moderately lower fair value for Chinese equities2.
A debatable reflation story for the stock market 3.
China’s energy policy is paying dividends 4.
AI has changed the (geopolitical) game5.
Plan “A” still works 6.
Earnings and cash returns shine at uncertain times7.
Is Middle Eastern capital coming to HK?8.
A speed bump, not a detour of China’s “Going Global” journey9.
Oil has stolen the thunder from the “Claw”10.
Kinger Lau, CFA
+852-2978-1224 | @
Goldman Sachs (Asia) .
Timothy Moe, CFA
+65-6889-1199 | @
Goldman Sachs (Singapore) Pte
Si Fu, .
+852-2978-0200 | @
Goldman Sachs (Asia) .
Kevin Wang, CFA
+852-2978-2446 | @
Goldman Sachs (Asia) .
29 March 2026 | 10:36PM HKT
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC
certification and other important disclosures, see the Disclosure Appendix, or go to
Portfolio Strategy Research
CHINA MUSINGS
10 reflections so far on the Mideast oil shock
1. China looks better placed than most in this oil shock
The Chinese economy appears better positioned amid the oil supply shock than its
global peers, owing to its: a) strategic energy diversification efforts, with crude oil and
LNG accounting for 28% of China’s primary energy consumption in 2024, one of the
lowest in the world. On the flip-side, alternative/renewable energy, notably nuclear,
wind, solar, and hydro, now represents 40% of China’s electricity generation, up from
26% a decade ago; b) rising oil reserves, encompassing strategic and commercial
stockpiles, are close to barrels based on official statistics, sufficient for +110 days
of oil consumption assuming the entire crude imports fall to zero; and, c) continued
access to oil and gas supply from energy producing nations outside of the Middle East
region, Russia, Australia, and Malaysia in particular. Due to the oil shock, our
economists have trimmed China’s real GDP growth forecast by 20bps, compared to
40bps for the US, and 70bps for the EM Asia ex-China economic bloc.
Exhibit 1: China’s energy and power reliance on oil and gas
is much lower than its global peers
Exhibit 2: Alternative and renewable energy sources make
up for 40% of China’s electricity generation
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
US EU Japan Taiwan Korea ASEAN World India China
Natural gas
Petrol and other liquids
Percent PercentShare in primary energy consumption in 2024
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Others
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal
Oil
Natural
gas
China electricity generation mix by source
3%2% Oil & Natual gas
40%26% Renewables (incl. Nuclear)
Source: EIA, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: EIA, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 3: China’s energy imports are fairly diversified
geographically
Exhibit 4: Our economists have trimmed 2026 China real
GDP growth by 20bps because of the oil shock, one of the
lowest in the region
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
R
us
si
a
M
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a
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In
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U
A
E
O
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an
Q
at
ar
K
uw
ai
t
Ira
n
2025 2017
China energy imports by country (as % of total)
Non-Middle East Middle East
^Note: Energy imports from Iran are much lower in China official custom data as media
reported that they are now mostly rebranded as imports from Malaysia, Saudi or Oman
since US tightened restrictions in 2019
P
hi
lip
pi
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s
Th
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la
nd
In
di
a
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in
ga
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on
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a
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us
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In
do
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si
a
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n
Ta
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an
C
hi
na
K
or
ea
A
si
a
E
x-
Ja
pa
n
%
GS Forecast: Changes to 2026E Real GDP
Growth since Jan
Source: CEIC, Customs data, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
29 March 2026 2
Goldman Sachs China Musings
hVeYmOnQyRuMrO7NaO7NoMnNpNsMfQpPpMkPpMrR9PoPnMNZtQtNwMmMrO
2. Moderately lower fair value for Chinese equities
While the direct impacts of higher for longer energy prices are likely more manageable
for the Chinese economy, the spillover effects/concerns about global stagflation,
more sticky US rates and a stronger Dollar, and sustained geopolitical risk premia
could hurt China equities via the earnings, valuation, and money flows channels.
Incorporating GS latest macro forecast changes in the past month to our top-down
market frameworks, we estimate that the incrementally less friendly global backdrop
could reduce China equity’s fair value by about 5%, attributable to 2pp earnings hit and
3-4% fair PE reduction. Hence, we have lowered our index target for MSCI China and
CSI300 by 5% and 4%, now implying 24% and 12% 12m price returns respectively. A
full-blown global recession and/or stagflation scenario is admittedly not fully priced in
yet, but we stay Overweight A- and H-shares in the APxJ context given their favorable
risk/reward profiles, and we’d recommend investors to build strategic exposures at
current prices barring the materialization of left-tail events.
Exhibit 5: A less equity friendly global backdrop could
moderately reduce the equilibrium value of China equity
Exhibit 6: Our VAR impulse shock analysis suggests a 6%
cumulative earnings impact from the oil price changes
since the start of the Middle East conflict
(12%)
(10%)
(8%)
(6%)
(4%)
(2%)
0%
2%
4%
6%
Th
ai
la
nd
A
us
tra
lia
In
do
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si
a
Ta
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an
S
in
ga
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M
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a
In
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P
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s
M
X
A
P
J
Net impact on market (Additional US$15/bbl shock)
Net impact on market (Overall)
Note: Estimates based on regional VAR model's sensitivity to impacted MXAPJ sectors
Impact on 2026E earnings by oil price shock
Negative/other sectors (US$30/bbl + US$15/bbl shock)
Positive sectors (US$30/bbl + US$15/bbl shock)
Source: MSCI , FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 7: We remain overweight most North Asian markets, but reduce India to MW and
Philippines to UW
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
29 March 2026 3
Goldman Sachs China Musings
3. A debatable reflation story for the stock market
Our economists’ most updated inflation projections suggest that China could end its
41-month PPI deflation as early as in March primarily because of surging global
energy prices, 6 to 9 months earlier than their prior forecast. While investors are
generally skeptical about the positive impacts of cost-push inflation on the stock
market, rising PPI has historically been associated with robust corporate profits and
decent equity returns, even during periods when inflationary pressures were mostly
instigated by higher input costs (. 2011, 2017/18, and 2021). In fact, Chinese
nominal GDP growth has been revised up by (per GS estimates) since the Iran
war started, arguably a moderate tailwind for companies’ revenue growth and upstream
sectors’ profitability. This could also help alter the disinflationary corporate behavior
and consumer mindset, with lower real interest rate likely supportive of corporate capex
and asset reallocation flows from cash/savings to the equity market, everything else
being equal.
Exhibit 8: China could come out of the disflationary cycle
as early as in March due to surging energy prices
Exhibit 9: Nominal GDP growth is tightly linked with
corporate revenue growth
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
Actual
Pre-Iran War
Latest Forecasts
China PPI inflation (% yoy)
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
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16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
20
21
20
22
20
23
20
24
20
25
(yoy)(yoy)
Nominal GDP
All listed companies revenue
China nominal GDP & listed companies
revenue yoy growth
Note: revenue and earnings as of 9M25(Q3) as FY25 reporting
season is still in progress and will last until end-Apr
Source: CEIC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 10: Higher PPI is typically positively associated
with corporate profit and equity returns
Exhibit 11: Real rates are also well correlated with equity
valuations in China
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
E
ne
rg
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C
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B
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In
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PPI x return
PPI x earnings
PPI correlation with GICS sector return & earnings
Note: Return based on monthly data for MXCN
sectors and earnings based on annual data for all
China listed universe; both over past 20 years
8
10
12
14
16
< -2% -2 - -1% -1 - 0% 0 - 1% 1 - 2% 2 - 3% >3%
MXCN CSI300
Range of CGB 10Y real yield
12m fP/E in each range of real yield (Median)
Note: monthly data since Jan 2005
excluded periods during GFC/COVID
when P/E was distorted; real yield is
calculated by 10Y CGB nominal yield
- 1/2 x (CPI yoy + PPI yoy)
current
Source: MSCI, Wind, FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: Wind, FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
29 March 2026 4
Goldman Sachs China Musings
InIBlz27muPJv+a429Fw/knzoo8snxcMHXjnMWnWMMmP+75dNG0iYjyhbAxX0I8c
4. China’s energy policy is paying dividends
China is the world’s largest importer of oil and LNG by volume but also is the largest
investor in alternative energy, spanning power generation sources and technology,
energy infrastructure (VLCC, power transmission, equipment, and storage), and modern
petrochemical facilities. The disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, through which
20%/25% of crude oil/LNG and many critical inputs to the agricultural and
manufacturing supply chains are transported globally in normal times, have elevated
energy independence, supply chain resiliency, and social stability to the national security
level. This will most likely intensify China’s commitment and support to its alternative
energy policy orientation, potentially creating new revenue and profit pools
domestically and abroad for relevant Chinese companies. In this vein, we reiterate
our strategic optimism on our China Select AI Portfolio and our China 15th FYP
Portfolio where select proxies from the AI power and alternative energy value chains
are heavily featured.
Exhibit 12: Security and Energy were heavily featured in
the 15th FYP
Exhibit 13: Chinese manufacturers hold dominant
positions in the global supply chain in various consumer,
industrial and commodity sectors
90% 86%
80%
74%
68%
57% 55% 54%
37% 36% 33% 28%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
China as % of global supply in key sectors
Source: Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: Company data, Reuters, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 14: The Power cohort in the Chinese AI supply
chain has continued to trade well since the “DeepSeek
moment”
Exhibit 15: Investors could gain exposures to the
new/alternative value chain in our AI Select Portfolio and
the 15th FYP Portfolio
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
Ja
n
-2
4
M
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-2
4
M
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-2
4
Ju
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4
Se
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-2
4
N
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Ja
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M
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M
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Ja
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6
M
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-2
6
Performance of Top China Themes since 2024
Going Global Leaders
Shareholders
Return
47%
Prominent 10
79%
64%
113%
15 FYPInception
Note: Solid lines represent performance after
thematic portfolio inception, dotted lines represent
performance before inception. Total returns applied
during calculation.
Select AI
144%
Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
29 March 2026 5
Goldman Sachs China Musings
5. AI has changed the (geopolitical) game
The Iran war, and to a lesser extent the US’s operation in Venezuela, are widely regarded
by military experts and geopolitical commentators as the new template of military
conflicts in the modern era. They showcase the ascent and importance of technology
and AI in national defense and warfare strategy, notably the adoption of AI-powered
intelligence analysis, precision targeting, and autonomous weapon systems such as
drones and unmanned vessels. Not only has the war prompted sovereign nations to lift
their defense spending, but it has also pivoted their focus on AI investment to beef up
their defense capability and capacity, in our view. This has further cemented our strong
belief that AI will remain a dominant theme in the Chinese equity universe, especially
in areas where China is enjoying comparative and competitive advantages over its global
peers, the Power, Infra, and Physical AI cohorts in particular, and those that are
related to national security, namely the semi supply chain and LLMs.
Exhibit 16: Technology and AI are widely used in the ongoing Iran war
Source: Washington Post, Euro News
Exhibit 17: Rising defense budgets globally could
increasingly gravitate towards AI/technology investments
Exhibit 18: China is a key player in the global AI
value-added chain, notably Power, Infra, and Physical AI
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
19
70
19
73
19
76
19
79
19
82
19
85
19
88
19
91
19
94
19
97
20
00
20
03
20
06
20
09
20
12
20
15
20
18
20
21
20
24
Military Expenditure
China EU Middle East US
(US$bn)
314
(%)
369
(%)
201
(%)
997
(%)
(as % of
GDP)
38%
8%
26%
4%
27%
16%
17%
45%
49% 94%
29%
75%
45% 47%
25%
44%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Global AI revenue share
China
US
Others
Source: World Bank, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
AI+ includes AI adopters such as Media & Entertainment, E-commerce, AI
platform & Software, Business Services, etc. Please refer to AI changes the
game (Part 2) for more details
Source: FactSet, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
29 March 2026 6
Goldman Sachs China Musings
6. Plan “A” still works
While Chinese stocks have corrected alongside global equities since the outbreak of the
war, their diversification benefits, especially those from A shares, are on full display
so far in this oil shock. CSI300 and MSCI China have fallen 4% and 7% since Feb 28 (3%
and 8% ytd), largely inline with MSCI all country world index and but modestly better
than ex-China emerging markets. Importantly, A and H shares have meaningfully
outperformed their peers on a volatility-adjusted basis, achieving a Sharpe ratio of
and in the past month and exhibiting a 52w rolling return correlation with SPX
of and respectively. The demand for idiosyncrasy and “low vol” should rise as
growth and geopolitical risks rise, adding to the investment appeal of A shares where
foreign investor ownership merely stands at 3%, equity valuations seem inexpensive
versus domestic rates, and the policy put underwritten by the government (. the
National Team) remains valid, in our view. All these help reinforce our “slow bull” thesis
for China A, which continues to offer strong alpha opportunities to investors across
mandates and strategies.
Exhibit 19: Chinese equities have been more resilient so
far in this oil shock
Exhibit 20: China A shares have outperformed their EM
comparables on a risk-adjusted basis in the past month
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
MSCI index returns
YTD Since Iran War Returns in USD
As of Mar 27, 2026
CSI300
MSCI China
Korea
Taiwan
India
Japan
S&P500
NASDAQ
Europe
EM ex China
-20%
-18%
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
% % % % % %
R
et
ur
n
si
nc
e
Fe
b
28
Daily return volatility since Feb 28
(%, -4%)
(%, -7%)
Lower volatility,
higher return
Source: FactSet, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 21: The low FINI ownership in the onshore equity
market adds to the idiosyncrasy of A shares
Exhibit 22: Our ETF flow tracker indicates that the
“National Team” has turned into a buyer in past weeks
after selling down its equity exposures earlier this year
46
33
30 29
18 17 15
3
0
10
20
30
40
50
Ta
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Ja
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Th
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)*
P
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In
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C
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na
on
sh
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Equity foreign ownership (%)
*calculated as sum of onshore foreign ownerhsip and offshore free-float cap,
divided by sum of onshore and offshore market cap. As of Dec 31, 2025
3000
3200
3400
3600
3800
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Ja
n-
23
A
pr
-2
3
Ju
l-2
3
O
ct
-2
3
Ja
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24
A
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-2
4
Ju
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4
O
ct
-2
4
Ja
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25
A
pr
-2
5
Ju
l-2
5
O
ct
-2
5
Ja
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26
A
pr
-2
6
NT buying signal: Net subscription of top 5 NT holdings ETFs (as % of total) > 2 .
Cumulative flows to top 5 NT holding China A-share ETFs (RMBbn)
CSI300 index - RHS
Source: Local Stock Exchanges, Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment
Research
Source: Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
29 March 2026 7
Goldman Sachs China Musings
7. Earnings and cash returns shine at uncertain times
Besides the (upstream) energy sector, which has understandably benefited from the
tight oil supply, the other outperforming themes and factors in this challenging beta
environment have been (high) cash/dividend returns, and to a lesser extent, earnings
delivery. This stylistic divide is partly supported by the continued focus by Chinese
corporates to raise ROE/cash returns for shareholders, the improving EPS revision
momentum in A shares, and our expectation that profit growth across the A- and
H-share universe could reach low-teen levels in 2026, underpinned by AI, “Going
Global”, and China’s anti-involution policy bias, with the last driver probably already
manifesting in the food delivery, logistics, and autos sectors. As Chinese companies are
scheduled to report their FY25 and 1Q16 financials in the coming weeks, we believe
sectors/stocks that are more likely to beat consensus expectation and/or surprise
the market on the upside on their shareholder returns policy could generate alpha
for investors, especially against those that are more prone to miss in this reporting
season.
Exhibit 23: Dividends growth and earnings surprises have generated alpha in the past month
-5% 0% 5% 10%
Growth (High vs Low)
Momentum (High vs Low)
EPS Revision (High vs Low)
Dividend Growth (High vs Low)
GARP (High vs Low)
ROE (High vs Low)
Balance Sheet (Strong vs Weak)
Earnings release (Beat vs Miss)
Dividend (High vs Low)
Value (Cheap vs Expensive)
China Style Performance (%) since Feb-end
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
E
ne
rg
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B
an
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U
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In
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C
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H
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D
iv
F
in
s
In
su
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M
at
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ia
ls
MSCI China Sector Performance (LOC, %) since Feb-end
Source: FactSet, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 24: An improving consensus earnings revision
trend for A shares
Exhibit 25: We think Tech HW and Materials are more
likely to surprise market to the upside while Staples could
miss in this reporting season
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
S
ep
-2
4
D
ec
-2
4
M
ar
-2
5
Ju
n-
25
S
ep
-2
5
D
ec
-2
5
2025/26E Index Earnings Revision
101
92
MSCI China
26E
CSI300 26E
25E
25E
96
90
Source: FactSet, CSI, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: FactSet, IBES, CSI, MSCI, NBS, Goldman Sachs Global Investment
Research
29 March 2026 8
Goldman Sachs China Musings
8. Is Middle Eastern capital coming to HK?
This is a FAQ by market watchers, who are keen to understand the capital flow
implications to the Asia financial hub if geopolitical concerns stay elevated in the Middle
East. We think it’s too early to tell as strategic investment decisions usually take more
than 1 month to conclude, but some signs suggest that international money may
have recently flowed to Hong Kong where HIBOR hasallen to 7-month lows, HKEx
turnover has strengthened despite steady Southbound trading representation post the
Iran war, and the local housing market is stagingurther recovery , led by the high-end
segment. We continue to envisage a conducive liquidity backdropor HK-listed
stocks in 2026, anchored by the likely Dollar weakening trend over the medium term, an
active IPO calendar, strong Southbound flows (GSeor 2026: US$200bn), and
still-conservative positioning byoreign investors in Chinese stocks. But, prolonged
economic disruptions in that region could impede the investment capacity and appetite
towards Chinese assets by Middle Eastern investors, who have been key capital sponsors
in both the private and public equity domains in recent years.
Exhibit 26: Interbank interest rates in HK have dropped to
recent-year lows
Exhibit 27: Cash turnover at HKEx has risen despite
moderating Southbound trading representation
0
1
2
3
4
5
Ja
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24
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N
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Ja
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Ju
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S
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5
N
ov
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5
Ja
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26
M
ar
-2
6
(%)
USDHKD 1-month HIBOR - RHS
(reverse)
USDHKD band
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
M
ar
-1
7
M
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-1
8
M
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-1
9
M
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-2
0
M
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-2
1
M
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-2
2
M
ar
-2
3
M
ar
-2
4
M
ar
-2
5
M
ar
-2
6
SB ADT as % o HKEx
SB ADT as % o HKEx (1mma)
HKEX Turnover (1y rolling avg) - RHS
Southbound ownership and ADT as % of HKEx
22%
Source: Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: Wind, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 28: We expect Southbound flows to reach
US$200bn this year on strong allocation demand from
onshore investors towards HK-listed equities
Exhibit 29: Global mutualund and hedgeund mandates
are conservatively positioned in Chinese stocks
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Ja
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Fe
b
M
ar
A
pr
M
ay Ju
n
Ju
l
A
ug
S
ep O
ct
N
ov
D
ec
2017 (+38%)
2022 (-18%)
2018 (-17%)
2023 (-14%)
2020 (+12%)
2019 (+11%)
2021 (-16%)
2016 (-1%)
2024: US$104bn (+16%)
2015 (-8%)
Cumulative Southbound net buying (US$bn) & HSCI performance
Note: lines represent cumulative Southbound net
buying, and numbers in the brackets after each year
indicate HSCI performance during the year.
2025:
US$180bn
(+31%)
2026ytd: US$29bn
(HSCI: -4%)
2026E: US$200bn
Note: ^ except for hedge
funds which are based on 5-
year history. ^^ Northbound
flows and positioning of
Chinese insures are as o
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
C
hi
ne
se
In
su
re
rs
D
om
es
tic
M
ut
ua
l
Fu
nd
s
Q
ua
rte
rly
N
or
th
bo
un
d
Fl
ow
s
M
on
th
ly
S
ou
th
bo
un
d
Fl
ow
s
G
lo
ba
l/G
lo
ba
l e
x-
U
S
F
un
ds
E
M
F
un
ds
A
E
J
Fu
nd
s
G
lo
ba
l H
ed
ge
Fu
nd
s
High-low since 2024
Current
China Weight / Net Exposure in Active Funds
(Percentile Over the Past Decade)
Onshore Oshore
Blue: domestic investors
Grey: overseas investors
Source: Wind, FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: Wind, CBIRC, EPFR, Goldman Sachs Prime Services, Goldman Sachs
Global Investment Research
29 March 2026 9
Goldman Sachs China Musings
9. A speed bump, not a detour of China’s “Going Global” journey
The rising global growth risk, and the supply chain/logistics disruptions have cast doubt
on the resiliency of Chinese exports, which rose 22% in the first 2 months of 2026,
accounted for 16% of global share in 2025, and have been a bright spot of macro growth
in recent years. We remain constructive about Chinese companies’ potential of
expanding overseas and gaining market share globally, considering: a) China’s strong
manufacturing capability and supply-chain diversity, especially for products and critical
minerals ( rare earths) that are difficult to substitute in the near future; b) a
competitive currency (the Rmb has weakened by 15% in real effective terms since 2021);
c) diversification of export markets, notably EMs where trade policy towards China stays
largely accommodative; d) China is not only exporting tradable goods, but increasingly
selling services, with the licensing out trend by biotech/pharma firms, rising token
exports, and the growing inbound tourism being the prime examples; e) continuing
outbound FDIs by Chinese companies, and, f) still-favorable base effect: listed Chinese
companies generated 16% of their revenues from overseas markets in 2024, vs. 25% for
S&P500 constituents.
Exhibit 30: Chinese exports surged in January-February,
led by developing economies globally
Exhibit 31: Transportation costs have risen across the
board as the disruptions in the Middle East continue
Chinese exports to the US/EU/Japan/ASEAN/LatAm/Africa were around %/%/
%/%/%/% of total exports. Overall they accounted for 63% of Chinese exports.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1-
O
ct
15
-O
ct
29
-O
ct
12
-N
ov
26
-N
ov
10
-D
ec
24
-D
ec
7-
Ja
n
21
-J
an
4-
Fe
b
18
-F
eb
4-
M
ar
18
-M
ar
(Rebased to
100) Shipping cost price index
VLCC (Middle East to China) Product tanker
Bulker Container
Air freight
+369%
+201%
+53%
+16%
+5%
Source: China Customs, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: Clarksons, TAC, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Exhibit 32: Chinese currency looks very competitive on a
REER basis
Exhibit 33: China’s overseas revenue exposure is still
below major DM and EM countries
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026
USDCNY vs CNY GSDEER
USDCNY(reversed) GSDEER[RHS]
More undervalued vs GSDEER
More overvalued vs
GSDEER
71% 68%
65%
49%
39%
25%
74%
51%
20%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
G
er
m
an
y
Fr
an
ce U
K
Ja
pa
n
A
us
tra
lia U
S
Ta
iw
an
K
or
ea
In
di
a
C
hi
na
Overseas Revenue Share of Key Markets
Note: MSCI AC World
universe applied.
16%
Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Source: FactSet, MSCI, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
29 March 2026 10
Goldman Sachs China Musings
本报告来源于三个皮匠报告站（）,由用户Id:1228580下载,文档Id:1180240,下载日期:2026-04-03
10. Oil has stolen the thunder from the “Claw”
The Middle East conflict has arguably masked another AI development milestone in
China—the rise of agentic AI. If the “DeepSeek moment” was a game changer which
proved that China is capable of producing globally competitive AI models despite
technology export controls from the West, then the emergence of “OpenClaw” and the
explosive growth of token usage starting a couple months ago is a testament of the
broad application/diffusion and strong monetization potential of Chinese AI. While it
seems premature to predict how the business model of agentic AI may evolve and how
the profit pool may shape up and be divided, the transition from AI chatbot to agentic AI
showcases the necessary conditions that keep China AI relevant and competitive in the
global AI ecosystem, namely a vast user base, open-sourced and capable LLMs, strong
cost competitiveness (tokens), well-built AI infrastructure, and world-leading
manufacturing capability for physical AI use cases. Our analyst team has highlighted 37
potential beneficiaries amid the “Openclaw” frenzy, which have lost 8% ytd, but
outperforming MSCI China/our broad Chinese AI universe by 44pp/14pp since 2025.
Exhibit 34: Openclaw usage has seen significant rise in
recent weeks
Exhibit 35: Token usage has increased significantly over
recent months amid the proliferation of Chinese AI agents
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1-
Ja
n
8-
Ja
n
15
-J
an
22
-J
an
29
-J
an
5-
Fe
b
12
-F
eb
19
-F
eb
26
-F
eb
5-
M
ar
12
-M
ar
19
-M
ar
26
-M
ar
OpenClaw GitHub Stars (Approx.)(Thousands) ~336k
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Top 10 AI models by token usage globally (Mar 2026)(tn)
Red indicates Chinese models
Source: GitHub, News sources, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global
Investment Research
Source: OpenRouter, Data compiled by Goldman Sachs Global Investment
Research
Exhibit 36: Chinese models are competitive globally on
performance as well as on costs
Exhibit 37: GS’s “OpenClaw” beneficiary list has
outperformed the broader market and our defined AI
universe in the past year
Claude Opus
-xhigh
-codex-max
Claude Sonnet
Gemini 3 Pro Preview
Gemini 3 Flash Preview
-codex
Claude Opus
Kimi K2 Thinking
-codex
GLM-5
Qwen3-Coder-Next
MiniMax
Kimi
35% 40% 45% 50% 55%
Resolved Rate (%)
Cost per Problem ($)
Red indicates Chinese models
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Ja
n-
25
Fe
b-
25
M
ar
-2
5
A
pr
-2
5
M
ay
-2
5
Ju
n-
25
Ju
l-2
5
A
ug
-2
5
S
ep
-2
5
O
ct
-2
5
N
ov
-2
5
D
ec
-2
5
Ja
n-
26
Fe
b-
26
M
ar
-2
6
Index
(equal-wgt)
Performance of OpenClaw benficiaries
OpenClaw Beneficiaries
China AI universe
MXCN
158
Iran War
start
114
144
Source: SWE-rebench
Source: FactSet, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
29 March 2026 11
Goldman Sachs China Musings
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Goldman Sachs China Musings
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29 March 2026 14
Goldman Sachs China Musings
