ab 2 April 2026Global Research
Road & Spak
China autos knocking on US door?
According to Bloomberg, Stellantis is in the early stages of discussions to build EVs with
their Chinese partner Leapmotor at an idled Stellantis assembly plant in Ontario,
Canada. Recall, in January 2026, Canada and China reached an agreement to reduce
tariffs on Chinese made EVs. Our mid-to-long term view is that eventually, Chinese
vehicles will make their way to the US, but it’s not without challenges. Below, we
provide some thoughts on the later news and developments:
� For now, selling Chinese EVs in the US is very difficult. There is a 100% tariff on
Chinese EVs and perhaps more damaging is the law that prohibits Chinese-linked
software in “connected vehicles” (connected vehicles is a key selling point of
China EVs). That said, reports indicated that President Trump and President Xi may
discuss these barriers at their May summit.
� In January 2026, President Trump indicated that he could be open to Chinese
automakers in the US provided they opened factories in the US and used US
workers. We believe the importing of Chinese vehicles would be a non-starter.
� That brings us to the Canada news. Now, there could be a number of factors at
play here including: 1) Leverage with upcoming Unifor negotiations, 2) leverage
with USMCA negotiations, 3) Using Canada production not for US demand, but
for Canada and other countries. Not that this is certain or may be easy. For
instance, Ontario Premier Doug Ford said he’d oppose any deal between Stellantis
and Leapmotor to build EVs in Canada unless they use local parts (. no
knockdown kits).
� Further, there are likely barriers to prevent Canadian made Chinese vehicles
entering the US through the back door. For instance, Trump threatened to put
100% tariffs on all Canadian goods “if Canada makes a deal with China.” In our
view, this could also apply to Mexico, not just Canada. We highlight the recent
news that GM plans to build vehicles in Mexico with their China JV partner. But, if
Chinese vehicles begin to be made in the Canada, we wonder if it’s only a matter
of time before that is done in the US? And if Chinese EVs are available in the US
and they remain better and cheaper than US made EVs, we have to wonder if
consumers will second guess buying an EV from Tesla, Rivian or even a traditional
automaker.
� Competing with Chinese EVs could be an existential threat. In our recent meetings
with F CEO Jim Farley, he told us they must prepare, and keep optionality open for
any potential outcome, including the Chinese coming to the US. The Japanese
came to the US, but Japan is a ~3mm unit market (ex- Kei cars); Korea came, but
Korea is a <2mm unit market. China is a ~30mm unit market, so if they come, it’s
existential to US automakers that they get it right. Ford plans on winning with the
customer and out-innovating, and that is why they are still progressing with EV
plans with their new UEV platform (GM is continuing EV plans too, granted both
companies’ plans are scaled back vs. a number of years ago).
� But, we have to wonder if US automakers are also considering eventual
partnerships with Chinese OEMs for US production. For what it’s worth, when we
were with Farley, he flatly denied a Bloomberg report that Ford was talking to US
administration about JVs with China in the US.
Believe limited impact from potential new steel, aluminum tariff framework
Separately, we received a lot of inbounds as to the report that the Trump administration
This report has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES, including
information on the Quantitative Research Review published by UBS, begin on page 19. UBS does and seeks to do
business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of
interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their
investment decision.
Equities
Americas
Automobiles
Joseph Spak, CFA
Analyst
@
+1-212-713 3089
Robert Saltzman
Analyst
@
+1-212-713 2992
Alejandro Nuno
Associate Analyst
@
+1-212-713 3886
Gabriel Gonzales, CFA
Associate Analyst
@
+1-212-713 4866
Road & Spak 2 April 2026 ab 2
could change the tariff structure for the metals and the impact to autos. While we need
to monitor and see the details, our preliminary view is this would have limited
implications for autos. Recall, auto still falls under Section 232 and as long as that
remains in place and these are auto parts using the metals, we don’t believe there will be
material changes. The steel/aluminum tariff has had a more indirect impact on F/GM in
that it changed the price of the metal, but they are not paying tariffs (no stack). The
slight exception is F that guided to $-$2bn headwind from aluminum tariff and
logistics as they are currently sourcing aluminum from tariff countries in the wake of the
Novelis downtime. But as Novelis’ plant comes back online (likely 2H26), that cost
should begin to fall away.
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Valuation
Figure 1: Comp Sheet
(in USD $mm, except per share data)
Share Price Price Div. All-in Market Enterprise EV/Sales EV/EBITDA P/E FCF Yield Sales
Company Ticker 04/02/2026 Target Yield Rating Return Cap. (USD) Value (USD) 2026E 2027E 2028E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2026E 2027E 2028E
US Automakers
Ford Motor Company F $ $15 % Neutral 34% $46,226 $33,377 % % %
General Motors Company GM $ $102 % Buy 41% $67,100 $60,684 % % %
Mean % % %
Median % % %
US BEV Automakers
Tesla, Inc. TSLA $ $352 % Sell -2% $1,277,570 $1,242,226 % % %
Rivian Automotive, Inc. Class A RIVN $ $16 % Neutral 4% $18,957 $17,343 NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
Lucid Group, Inc. LCID $ -- % Not rated NA $3,218 $4,288 NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
Mean % % %
Median % % %
US Auto Suppliers
Adient plc ADNT $ $32 % Buy 57% $1,603 $3,348 NA % % %
Aptiv PLC APTV $ $80 % Buy 31% $13,180 $18,705 % % %
Autoliv Inc. ALV $ $123 % Neutral* 20% $7,970 $9,863 % % %
BorgWarner Inc. BWA $ $55 % Neutral 5% $11,078 $13,033 % % %
Dana Incorporated DAN $ $40 % Buy 21% $3,914 $4,622 % % %
Dauch Corporation DCH $ $ % Buy 72% $1,466 $5,652 % % %
Gentex Corporation GNTX $ $25 % Neutral 18% $4,589 $4,442 % % %
Lear Corporation LEA $ $145 % Neutral 25% $6,216 $8,886 % % %
Magna International Inc. MGA $ $70 % Neutral 30% $15,505 $23,881 % % %
Mobileye Global, Inc. Class A MBLY $ $12 % Neutral 61% $6,057 $4,221 % % %
PHINIA Inc. PHIN $ $76 % Neutral 12% $2,690 $3,286 % % %
QuantumScape Corporation Class A QS $ $ % Sell -61% $3,847 $2,947 NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM
Visteon Corporation VC $ $120 % Buy 33% $2,522 $2,284 % % %
Mean (ex-MBLY) % % %
Median (ex-MBLY) % % %
Connectors & Sensors
Amphenol Corporation Class A APH $ $174 % Buy 36% $164,941 $169,336 % % %
TE Connectivity plc TEL $ $283 % Buy 37% $62,094 $65,802 % % %
Sensata Technologies Holding PLC ST $ $43 % Buy 26% $5,123 $7,442 % % %
Mean % % %
Median % % %
Auto Internet
CarGurus, Inc. Class A CARG $ $33 % Neutral -1% $3,224 $3,033 % % %
, Inc. CARS $ $11 % Neutral 33% $511 $905 % % %
Carvana Co. Class A CVNA $ $485 % Buy 55% $68,825 $71,787 % % %
Autotrader Group PLC AUTO-GB £ £ % Sell** 1% $6,290 $6,270 NM NM NM NM NA % % NA
Mean % % %
Median % % %
Source: FactSet, Visible Alpha, UBS estimates. Note: Priced as of 04/02/26. Trading multiples based on consensus estimates, except F/GM EV/EBITDA based on UBS forecast. For F/GM EV/EBITDA, EV calculated as market cap. + auto net debt + NCI
- book value of captive finance company - underfunded pension/OPEB and EBITDA is Auto EBITDA + non service pension costs/(income). For CVNA, market cap utilizes current price * class A shares outstanding assuming full conversion of LLC
units. ADNT and TEL are calendarized from FY Sept.; *ALV is covered by UBS analyst Juan Perez-Carrascosa; **AUTO-GB is covered by UBS analyst Jo Barnet-Lamb.
Road & Spak 2 April 2026 ab 4
Road & Spak UBS Research
Performance
Figure 2: US Automotive coverage stock performance, past week
6%
4%
2%
2%
1% 1%
0% 0% 0% -1% -1% -1%
-2% -2% -2%
-3%
-5% -5% -5% -5% -6%
-7%
-9%-10%
-8%
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Stock performance, past week
Source: FactSet
Figure 3: US Automotive coverage stock performance, last 3 months
33%
12%
5% 4%
0% -2% -2%
-5% -6%
-8% -9% -9% -11%-12%-12%-13%-14%
-20%-22%
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Stock performance, 3 months
Source: FactSet
Figure 4: US Automotive coverage stock performance, last 12 months
144%
88% 82%
59% 59% 56% 53% 53% 51% 47% 40% 39% 33%
28% 23% 19% 16% 15%
14% 13%
-9%
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Stock performance, 12 months
Source: FactSet
Road & Spak 2 April 2026 ab 5
Figure 5: US Auto coverage performance heat map
Week ending 10/31 11/7 11/14 11/21 11/28 12/5 12/12 12/19 12/26 1/2 1/9 1/16 1/23 1/30 2/6 2/13 2/20 2/27 3/6 3/13 3/20 3/27 4/3
F (5%) 1% (0%) (3%) 4% (2%) 6% (2%) (1%) 0% 6% (4%) (0%) 2% (1%) 2% (1%) 1% (14%) (4%) (1%) (1%) 2%
GM (1%) 2% (0%) (0%) 5% 3% 6% 2% 1% (3%) 2% (2%) (1%) 5% 0% (4%) 1% (3%) (4%) (4%) 1% 0% (1%)
TSLA 5% (6%) (6%) (3%) 10% 6% 1% 5% (1%) (8%) 2% (2%) 3% (4%) (4%) 2% (1%) (2%) (1%) (1%) (6%) (2%) (0%)
RIVN 5% 12% (1%) (2%) 13% 6% 3% 22% (7%) (7%) (1%) (13%) (4%) (8%) 0% 20% (14%) 0% 0% (3%) 0% (1%) 4%
ADNT (4%) (15%) 2% (5%) 3% (5%) 2% 4% (0%) (2%) 8% 7% (2%) (4%) 27% 2% (8%) (2%) (13%) (7%) (1%) 3% 1%
APH 4% (0%) (4%) (2%) 7% (1%) (7%) 5% 2% 2% 0% 10% (2%) (5%) (5%) 8% 3% (3%) (10%) 2% (5%) (2%) 3%
APTV (6%) 3% (6%) (6%) 5% (2%) 3% (1%) (2%) 2% 13% (11%) (3%) (1%) 9% 3% (7%) (8%) (1%) (3%) (3%) (2%) 7%
DCH (4%) 6% (6%) 1% 5% (4%) 1% 4% (3%) 0% 21% (2%) 8% (4%) 8% (16%) (3%) (6%) (16%) (7%) 3% 5% 7%
BWA (2%) 5% (0%) (4%) 0% 1% 3% 1% 1% 2% 2% (1%) 1% (1%) 10% 20% (6%) (2%) (10%) (2%) 3% 4% (2%)
CARG (5%) (5%) 7% (3%) 2% 2% 7% 0% 0% (3%) 3% (12%) (0%) (5%) (12%) (4%) 10% 2% 10% (8%) 9% 4% (5%)
CARS (5%) 4% 2% 1% 1% 4% 6% 1% (3%) (4%) 4% (5%) (0%) (5%) (2%) (1%) 4% (26%) (5%) (7%) 4% 1% 5%
CVNA (13%) (1%) 5% (3%) 21% 7% 14% (1%) (3%) (9%) 16% (4%) 7% (15%) 1% (15%) (2%) (1%) (5%) (6%) (6%) 7% 5%
DAN 2% 7% (4%) 0% 7% (6%) 8% 4% 1% 4% 7% 3% 13% (7%) 10% 5% 3% (0%) (5%) (4%) 0% 4% 2%
GNTX (1%) 0% (3%) (2%) 2% 2% 2% (0%) (0%) 1% 4% (2%) (1%) (2%) 5% 3% (4%) (2%) (6%) (5%) (1%) 5% (1%)
LEA 3% 5% (4%) (2%) 3% 0% 5% 5% (2%) 1% 5% (3%) (1%) (2%) 20% (2%) (2%) (3%) (8%) (5%) (1%) 4% (0%)
MBLY (2%) (4%) (2%) (9%) 6% (1%) (5%) (8%) 2% 8% 3% (9%) (7%) (8%) (3%) 6% (2%) (7%) (5%) (5%) 1% (12%) 9%
MGA 2% 6% (2%) (2%) 1% 0% 6% 6% (2%) 1% 3% (2%) (3%) (4%) 6% 27% (6%) (3%) (7%) (6%) (5%) 4% 1%
PHIN (5%) 3% 2% (1%) 1% 1% 6% 5% 1% 5% 7% 0% (1%) 3% 4% 3% 0% (4%) (7%) (6%) (0%) 7% 2%
ST (0%) (3%) (3%) 1% 6% 5% 4% (3%) (1%) 4% 2% (2%) (2%) 0% 4% 2% 4% (3%) (12%) 4% (3%) 5% (1%)
TEL 5% (2%) (2%) (8%) 3% 4% (2%) (0%) 1% 0% (1%) 4% (7%) (0%) (3%) 9% (1%) (2%) (11%) (3%) (2%) 3% 4%
QS 10% (10%) (19%) (15%) 7% 3% (6%) (3%) (4%) 1% (4%) (1%) (2%) (15%) (4%) (9%) (11%) 1% (3%) 1% (2%) (5%) 0%
VC (1%) (0%) (1%) (3%) 1% (4%) 4% (3%) (3%) (0%) 5% (8%) (2%) (1%) 11% 4% (11%) 3% (6%) (1%) (4%) 3% 4%
S&P500 1% (2%) 0% (2%) 4% 0% (1%) 0% 1% (1%) 2% (0%) (0%) 0% (0%) (1%) 1% (0%) (2%) (2%) (2%) (2%) 3%
Source: FactSet, UBS
Figure 6: Auto Industry sub-sector heat map
Week ending 10/31 11/7 11/14 11/21 11/28 12/5 12/12 12/19 12/26 1/2 1/9 1/16 1/23 1/30 2/6 2/13 2/20 2/27 3/6 3/13 3/20 3/27 4/3
D3 (3%) 2% (0%) (1%) 5% 3% 5% 0% (0%) (1%) 3% (4%) (1%) 4% (2%) (1%) 0% (2%) (8%) (4%) (0%) 0% 1%
TSLA 5% (6%) (6%) (3%) 10% 6% 1% 5% (1%) (8%) 2% (2%) 3% (4%) (4%) 2% (1%) (2%) (1%) (1%) (6%) (2%) (0%)
Other EV 2% 7% (6%) (3%) 12% 5% 0% 17% (5%) (6%) (0%) (12%) (4%) (7%) 1% 15% (13%) 3% (2%) (3%) 1% (2%) 5%
Europe Volume OEM (3%) 2% 3% (4%) 4% 10% (0%) (3%) (2%) 3% (4%) (6%) 2% (2%) (9%) 4% (1%) 0% (11%) (2%) (4%) 3% 5%
Europe Premium OEM 0% 3% 2% (5%) 2% 5% (3%) (1%) (1%) 3% (1%) (5%) (2%) (1%) (1%) 5% 0% 1% (8%) (1%) (6%) 2% 4%
J3 OEM (0%) (0%) 2% (3%) 1% (3%) 7% 4% (1%) (1%) 1% 8% (1%) (3%) 8% (1%) (4%) 5% (8%) (4%) (2%) 2% (4%)
Korea OEM 10% (9%) 5% (4%) 0% 15% (2%) (4%) (1%) 3% 17% 13% 16% (3%) (4%) 7% 3% 27% (18%) (5%) 1% (6%) (5%)
China NEV (2%) (4%) 2% (9%) 4% (1%) (1%) (3%) 1% 4% (4%) 2% (1%) (3%) (1%) 3% (2%) (2%) (0%) 5% 4% 3% 4%
NA Suppliers (1%) 3% (3%) (3%) 2% (1%) 4% 2% (1%) 2% 6% (4%) (1%) (3%) 9% 10% (5%) (4%) (6%) (5%) (2%) 3% 2%
Secular Suppliers (4%) 3% (4%) (6%) 3% (1%) 2% (1%) (1%) 2% 8% (8%) (2%) (1%) 9% 9% (7%) (5%) (5%) (3%) (1%) 0% 4%
Cyclical Suppliers 1% 4% (2%) (2%) 2% (1%) 5% 4% (1%) 1% 4% (1%) (0%) (4%) 9% 11% (4%) (3%) (7%) (6%) (3%) 4% 1%
Europe Suppliers 1% 1% (2%) (5%) 5% 2% 2% 0% (1%) 5% 1% (4%) 2% (2%) 6% 5% (2%) (3%) (13%) (3%) (7%) 4% 4%
Auto-tech 1% (13%) (5%) (11%) 12% 4% (2%) (2%) (3%) 2% 17% (2%) (3%) (10%) 3% 3% 5% (3%) (6%) (6%) (1%) (7%) 4%
Global Battery 0% (1%) 1% (9%) 1% 3% 2% (7%) 1% (3%) 0% (1%) 2% (1%) 3% 0% --% (1%) (2%) 7% 3% 1% (1%)
US Rental (12%) 8% (5%) (6%) 3% (1%) (2%) (0%) 1% (3%) 1% (2%) (3%) (6%) 5% (2%) (17%) 0% (1%) 2% (0%) 44% 20%
US Dealers (6%) (2%) 2% 1% 8% 4% 6% (1%) (1%) (5%) 8% (3%) 1% (8%) 2% (8%) (1%) (4%) (3%) (5%) (3%) 6% 2%
Global Tires (0%) 3% 3% (3%) 4% 1% 3% (1%) (1%) 1% 2% 0% 2% (2%) 5% 3% 3% (1%) (15%) (5%) (3%) 2% 0%
Source: FactSet, UBS
Figure 7: US auto suppliers historical NTM EV/EBITDA
multiples
0x 5x 10x 15x 20x
DCH
ADNT
VC
LEA
MGA
BWA
PHIN
ALV
APTV
GNTX
DAN
NTM EV/EBITDA, 10-year range
median
low high-1SD +1SD
latest
Source: FactSet, UBS, APTV only since 2018, VC since 2016
Figure 8: US auto suppliers historical relative premium/
discount to group
-100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150%
DCH
ADNT
VC
LEA
MGA
BWA
PHIN
ALV
APTV
GNTX
DAN
NTM EV/EBITDA relative to group,10-year
range
median
low high
latest
Source: FactSet, UBS, APTV only since 2018, VC since 2016
Road & Spak 2 April 2026 ab 6
Road & Spak UBS Research
Crowding and Positioning
Figure 9: Short Interest and Days to Cover
Short Interest % Days to Cover Short Interest %
1-yr Trend Current 1-yr Trend Current
F %
GM %
TSLA %
RIVN %
ADNT %
APH %
APTV %
DCH %
BWA %
CARG %
CARS %
CVNA %
DAN %
GNTX %
LEA %
MBLY %
MGA %
PHIN %
QS %
ST %
TEL %
VC %
Source: FactSet
Figure 10: Crowding Score Over Last Three Months
Company
Latest value
(03-31-26)
Last 3 months Company
Latest value
(03-31-26)
Last 3 months
ADNT GNTX ()
APH LEA
APTV MBLY
BWA MGA
CARG PHIN
CARS () QS ()
CVNA () RIVN ()
DAN ST
DCH TEL
F TSLA
GM VC
Source: UBS, UBS Quant Answers
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Figure 11: Weekly Change in Crowding Score
Week 01/01
vs. 12/27
Week 01/08
vs. 01/01
Week 01/15
vs. 01/08
Week 01/22
vs. 01/15
Week 01/29
vs. 01/22
Week 02/05
vs. 01/29
Week 02/12
vs. 02/05
Week 02/19
vs. 02/12
Week 02/26
vs. 02/19
Week 03/05
vs. 02/26
Week 03/13
vs. 03/06
Week 03/20
vs. 03/13
Week 03/27
vs. 03/20
APH () () () () () ()
GNTX () () () () () () () () ()
MBLY () () () () () ()
MGA () () () ()
VC () () () () () () () () ()
LEA () () () () () ()
TEL () () () () () () ()
CARS () () () () () () ()
DCH () () () () ()
GM () () () () ()
RIVN () () () () () () () () ()
CARG () () () () () () () ()
QS () () () () () () () () () () ()
F () () () () () () ()
ST () () () () () () ()
TSLA () () () () () () () ()
ADNT () () () ()
CVNA () () () () () () ()
PHIN () () () ()
DAN () () () () ()
BWA () () () ()
APTV () () () () () () () ()
Source: UBS, UBS Quant Answers
Road & Spak 2 April 2026 ab 8
Road & Spak UBS Research
Industry Data
Figure 12: US Monthly SAAR Trend
10
12
14
16
18
20
SAAR (mm units)
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Source: Autodata
Figure 13: US Market Share
43% 39% 36% 31% 28% 24% 23% 21% 21% 20% 18% 17%
15% 15% 16%
17% 18% 20% 19% 20% 18% 18% 19% 19%
37% 39% 42% 46% 48% 51% 54% 54% 56% 58% 58% 59%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
YTD
US Sales Mix
Car Pickup SUV Van
Source: Autodata
Figure 14: Company Days Inventory
-- days
10 days
20 days
30 days
40 days
50 days
60 days
70 days
80 days
Total Days Inventory vs. 10-yr avg
Current Month Current Month/Prior Year 10-yr avg
Source: Autodata
Figure 15: US Industry Days Inventory
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
D
a
y
s
Inventory Days Monthly, .
10-year average 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Source: Autodata
Figure 16: US SAAR and Inventories
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ry
(
m
m
)
Inventory levels and monthly SAAR, .
GM Ford Stellantis
Toyota Honda Nissan
Hyundai/Kia Other Monthly SAAR
Source: Autodata, Wards
Figure 17: Industry Average Transaction Price
-8%
-4%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Ja
n
-1
3
O
ct
-1
3
Ju
l-
1
4
A
p
r-
1
5
Ja
n
-1
6
O
ct
-1
6
Ju
l-
1
7
A
p
r-
1
8
Ja
n
-1
9
O
ct
-1
9
Ju
l-
2
0
A
p
r-
2
1
Ja
n
-2
2
O
ct
-2
2
Ju
l-
2
3
A
p
r-
2
4
Ja
n
-2
5
O
ct
-2
5
y
/y
%
A
T
P
(
$
)
Industry ATP
Average Transaction Price Y/Y
Source: Kelley Blue Book, Autodata
Road & Spak 2 April 2026 ab 9
Figure 18: Value of SAAR
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
A
u
g
-1
5
F
e
b
-1
6
A
u
g
-1
6
F
e
b
-1
7
A
u
g
-1
7
F
e
b
-1
8
A
u
g
-1
8
F
e
b
-1
9
A
u
g
-1
9
F
e
b
-2
0
A
u
g
-2
0
F
e
b
-2
1
A
u
g
-2
1
F
e
b
-2
2
A
u
g
-2
2
F
e
b
-2
3
A
u
g
-2
3
F
e
b
-2
4
A
u
g
-2
4
F
e
b
-2
5
A
u
g
-2
5
F
e
b
-2
6
Value of SAAR (SAAR x ATP), $bn
Source: Autodata, JD Power
Figure 19: Industry Incentive per unit trend
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
in
U
S
$
Incentives per unit monthly
10-year average 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
Source: Autodata
Figure 20: Company Incentive per unit trend
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
Incentives per unit summary
Current month Current month / prior year Prior month 10-yr monthly avg
Source: Autodata
Figure 21: Manheim used vehicle index
-30%
-15%
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Ja
n
-1
5
Ja
n
-1
6
Ja
n
-1
7
Ja
n
-1
8
Ja
n
-1
9
Ja
n
-2
0
Ja
n
-2
1
Ja
n
-2
2
Ja
n
-2
3
Ja
n
-2
4
Ja
n
-2
5
Ja
n
-2
6
%
y
/y
In
d
e
x
Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index
Manheim Index Price change y/y
Source: Manheim
Road & Spak 2 April 2026 ab 10
Figure 22: North America LVP - S&P Forecast
Source: S&P Mobility, UBS
Figure 23: Europe LVP - S&P Forecast
Source: S&P Mobility, UBS
Figure 24: China LVP - S&P Forecast
Source: S&P Mobility, UBS
Figure 25: Global LVP - S&P Forecast
Source: S&P Mobility, UBS
Road & Spak 2 April 2026 ab 11
Figure 26: Quarterly LVP by Region - S&P Forecast
% %
%
% %
%
%
%
%
%
%
%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
0
5
10
15
20
25
y
/y
%
▲
U
n
it
s
(m
m
)
S&P March LVP Forecast by Region
North America Europe China Japan/Korea ROW Total y/y %
Source: S&P Mobility, UBS
Road & Spak 2 April 2026 ab 12
Road & Spak UBS Research
EPS Trends
Figure 27: F 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
F 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 28: F 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
F 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 29: GM 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
GM 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
DCH 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 30: GM 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
GM 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 31: TSLA 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
TSLA 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
RIVN 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 32: TSLA 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
TSLA 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 33: RIVN 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
-$
-$
-$
-$
-$
$
RIVN 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
BWA 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 34: RIVN 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
-$
-$
-$
-$
-$
-$
-$
$
RIVN 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Road & Spak 2 April 2026 ab 13
Figure 35: ADNT F2Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
ADNT F2Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 36: ADNT 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
ADNT FY26 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 37: APH 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
APH 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 38: APH 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
APH 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 39: APTV 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
APTV 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
DAN 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 40: APTV 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
APTV 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 41: BWA 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
BWA 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
MGA 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 42: BWA 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
BWA 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
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Road & Spak 2 April 2026 ab 14
Figure 43: CARG 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
CARG 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 44: CARG 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
CARG 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 45: CARS 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
CARS 4Q25 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 46: CARS 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
CARS 2025 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 47: CVNA 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
CVNA 4Q25 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBSe
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 48: CVNA 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
CVNA 2025 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBSe
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 49: DAN 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
-$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
DAN 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 50: DAN 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
DAN 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Road & Spak 2 April 2026 ab 15
Figure 51: DCH 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
-$
-$
-$
-$
-$
$
$
$
$
DCH 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
LEA 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend MGA 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 52: DCH 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
-$
$
$
$
$
$
$
DCH 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 53: GNTX 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
PHIN 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
GNTX 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBSe
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 54: GNTX 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
GNTX 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBSe
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 55: LEA 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
LEA 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
VC 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 56: LEA 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
LEA 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 57: MGA 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
MGA 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 58: MGA 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
MGA 2026 Change in Consensus Estimates
Mean UBS
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Road & Spak 2 April 2026 ab 16
Figure 59: MBLY 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
MBLY 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 60: MBLY 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
MBLY 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 61: PHIN 41Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
PHIN 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBSe
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 62: PHIN 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
PHIN 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBSe
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 63: QS 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
-$
-$
-$
-$
-$
-$
QS 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 64: QS 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
-$
-$
-$
-$
-$
-$
-$
QS 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 65: ST 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
ST 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 66: ST 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
ST 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Road & Spak 2 April 2026 ab 17
Figure 67: TEL F2Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
TEL F2Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
CARG 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 68: TEL 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
TEL FY26 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 69: VC 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
VC 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
APH 1Q26 Consensus EPS Trend
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Figure 70: VC 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
$
$
$
$
$
$
$
VC 2026 Consensus EPS Trend
Mean UBS
Source: FactSet, UBS estimates
Road & Spak 2 April 2026 ab 18
Valuation Method and Risk Statement
We use a combination of multiple base to value our coverage. Risks include: 1) The
automotive industry is cyclical and subject to many economic factors that could impact
vehicle demand and production. 2) The market is competitive and share changes or the
potential loss of key customers could occur. 3) Commodities, FX, labor and other input costs
could be different than we assume. 4) Technology and insourcing risks. 5) Supply chain and
execution risk. 6) Investment for future growth could be greater than we expect. 7) Pricing for
new vehicles could be significantly worse than we expect.
Road & Spak 2 April 2026 ab 19
Required Disclosures
This document has been prepared by UBS Securities LLC, an affiliate of UBS AG. UBS AG, its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates,
including former Credit Suisse AG and its subsidiaries, branches and affiliates are referred to herein as "UBS".
For information on the ways in which UBS manages conflicts and maintains independence of its UBS Global Research product;
historical performance information; certain additional disclosures concerning UBS Global Research recommendations; and terms and
conditions for certain third party data used in research report, please visit Unless otherwise
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reports and other company announcements. The figures contained in performance charts refer to the past; past performance is not a
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in the debt securities (or in related derivatives) that may be the subject of this report. This recommendation was finalized on: 02 April
2026 10:22 PM GMT. UBS has designated certain UBS Global Research department members as Derivatives Research Analysts where
those department members publish research principally on the analysis of the price or market for a derivative, and provide information
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factors in a product known as the 'Quantitative Research Review'. Views contained in this assessment on a particular stock reflect only
the views on those short term factors which are a different timeframe to the 12-month timeframe reflected in any equity rating set out
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applicable. For previous responses please make reference to (i) previous UBS Global Research reports; and (ii) where no applicable
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answers@. A consolidated report which contains all responses is also available and again you should contact your UBS sales
representative for details and pricing or the Quantitative Research team on the email above.
Analyst Certification:
Each research analyst primarily responsible for the content of this research report, in whole or in part, certifies that with respect to each
security or issuer that the analyst covered in this report: (1) all of the views expressed accurately reflect his or her personal views about
those securities or issuers and were prepared in an independent manner, including with respect to UBS, and (2) no part of his or her
compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by that research
analyst in the research report.
UBS Global Research: Global Equity Rating Definitions
12-Month Rating Definition Coverage1 IB Services2
Buy FSR is > 6% above the MRA. 52% 24%
Neutral FSR is between -6% and 6% of the MRA. 41% 22%
Sell FSR is > 6% below the MRA. 7% 25%
Short-Term Rating Definition Coverage3 IB Services4
Buy Stock price expected to rise within three months from the time the rating was assigned because of a specific catalyst or event. <1% <1%
Sell Stock price expected to fall within three months from the time the rating was assigned because of a specific catalyst or event. <1% <1%
Source: UBS. Rating allocations are as of 31 December 2025.
1:Percentage of companies under coverage globally within the 12-month rating category.
2:Percentage of companies within the 12-month rating category for which investment banking (IB) services were provided within the
past 12 months.
3:Percentage of companies under coverage globally within the Short-Term rating category.
4:Percentage of companies within the Short-Term rating category for which investment banking (IB) services were provided within the
past 12 months.
Road & Spak 2 April 2026 ab 20
KEY DEFINITIONS:Forecast Stock Return (FSR) is defined as expected percentage price appreciation plus gross dividend yield over
the next 12 months. In some cases, this yield may be based on accrued dividends. Market Return Assumption (MRA) is defined as
the one-year local market interest rate plus 5% (a proxy for, and not a forecast of, the equity risk premium). Under Review (UR)
Stocks may be flagged as UR by the analyst, indicating that the stock's price target and/or rating are subject to possible change in the
near term, usually in response to an event that may affect the investment case or valuation. Equity Price Targets have an investment
horizon of 12 months.
EXCEPTIONS AND SPECIAL CASES:UK and European Investment Fund ratings and definitions are: Buy: Positive on factors
such as structure, management, performance record, discount; Neutral: Neutral on factors such as structure, management,
performance record, discount; Sell: Negative on factors such as structure, management, performance record, discount. Core
Banding Exceptions (CBE): Exceptions to the standard +/-6% bands may be granted by the Investment Review Consultation (IRC).
Factors considered by the IRC include the stock's volatility and the credit spread of the respective company's debt. As a result, stocks
deemed to be very high or low risk may be subject to higher or lower bands as they relate to the rating. When such exceptions apply,
they will be identified in the Company Disclosures table in the relevant research piece.
Research analysts contributing to this report who are employed by any non-US affiliate of UBS Securities LLC are not registered/
qualified as research analysts with FINRA. Such analysts may not be associated persons of UBS Securities LLC and therefore are not
subject to the FINRA restrictions on communications with a subject company, public appearances, and trading securities held by a
research analyst account. The name of each affiliate and analyst employed by that affiliate contributing to this report, if any, follows.
UBS Securities LLC: Alejandro Nuno, Gabriel Gonzales, CFA, Joseph Spak, CFA, Robert Saltzman.
Company Disclosures
Company Name Reuters 12-month rating Price Price date
Adient plc16,28 Buy US$ 01 Apr 2026
Amphenol Corp16,28 Buy US$ 01 Apr 2026
Aptiv PLC16,28 Buy US$ 01 Apr 2026
Autoliv20a,16,28 Neutral (CBE) US$ 02 Apr 2026
Autotrader Plc20a,28 Sell (CBE) 475p 02 Apr 2026
BorgWarner, ,28 Neutral US$ 01 Apr 2026
Cargurus Inc20a,16,28 Neutral (CBE) US$ 01 Apr 2026
Inc20a,16 Neutral (CBE) US$ 01 Apr 2026
Carvana Co16,28 Buy US$ 01 Apr 2026
Dana ,28 Buy US$ 01 Apr 2026
Dauch Corp13,20a,16,28 Buy (CBE) US$ 01 Apr 2026
Ford Motor ,28,7,6a,6b Neutral US$ 01 Apr 2026
General Motors Company4,16,28,6c Buy US$ 01 Apr 2026
Gentex Corp16,28 Neutral US$ 01 Apr 2026
Lear Corporation16,28 Neutral US$ 01 Apr 2026
Lucid Group, No Rating US$ 01 Apr 2026
Magna International Inc16,28 Neutral US$ 01 Apr 2026
Mobileye Global Inc20a,16 Neutral (CBE) US$ 01 Apr 2026
Phinia Inc16,28 Neutral US$ 01 Apr 2026
QuantumScape Corp4,20b,16,28,6c Sell (CBE) US$ 01 Apr 2026
Rivian Automotive, ,16,28 Neutral (CBE) US$ 01 Apr 2026
Sensata Technologies Holding PLC16 Buy US$ 01 Apr 2026
Stellantis ,16,28,7 Buy (CBE) € 02 Apr 2026
TE Connectivity PLC16,28 Buy US$ 01 Apr 2026
Tesla, ,16,28 Sell (CBE) US$ 01 Apr 2026
Visteon ,28 Buy US$ 01 Apr 2026
Source: UBS Global Research; LSEG Eikon. All prices as of local market close. Ratings in this table are the most current
published ratings prior to this report. They may be more recent than the stock pricing date.
Road & Spak 2 April 2026 ab 21
4. Within the past 12 months, UBS has received compensation for investment banking services from this company/
entity or one of its affiliates.
6a. This company/entity is, or within the past 12 months has been, a client of UBS Securities LLC, and non-investment
banking securities-related services are being, or have been, provided.
6b. This company/entity is, or within the past 12 months has been, a client of UBS Securities LLC, and non-securities
services are being, or have been, provided.
6c. This company/entity is, or within the past 12 months has been, a client of UBS Securities LLC and/or its affiliates, and
investment banking services are being, or have been, provided.
7. Within the past 12 months, UBS has received compensation for products and services other than investment
banking services from this company/entity.
13. UBS beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of this company's common equity securities as of last month's end (or
the prior month's end if this report is dated less than 10 days after the most recent month`s end).
16. UBS Securities LLC makes a market in the securities and/or ADRs of this company.
20a. Because this security exhibits higher-than-average volatility, the FSR has been set at 15% above the MRA for a Buy
rating, and at -15% below the MRA for a Sell rating (compared with 6/-6% under the normal rating system).
20b. Because this security exhibits higher-than-average volatility, the FSR has been set at 25% above the MRA for a Buy
rating, and at -25% below the MRA for a Sell rating (compared with 6/-6% under the normal rating system).
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Road & Spak 2 April 2026 ab 25
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