ֻ..3जֻ4௹ࣜ࠶࿐(࠱़),Vol3No42004୍7ᄅChinaEeonomieQuarterlyJuly,20()4ᇏݓࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ᇛ௹აѯ֥࣮iႄೆದ৯ሧЧު֥RBCଆӧঐ๕܁ੂถnᅋေЧ໓ၛᇏݓࣜ࠶୍(1952၂2001୍)ൌ࠽ࣜ࠶ඔऌູМࣟ,ᄝదЧRBCଆᇏႄೆದ৯ሧЧ,ॉ੮ଽളᇉሧЧބದ৯ሧЧ֥০Ⴈੱট࣮ᇏݓࣜ࠶ᄹӉބѯ֥ྙӮbଽളದ৯ሧЧ০ႨੱՖ۴Чഈࢣൕਔࣜ࠶ᄹӉѯ֥ଽᄝԮѬࠏᇅbЧ໓ᆷԛԮ֥ֆՂၛᇉሧЧ০ႨੱູࠎԤࢳѯࠏᇅ֥ܴׄ҂ቀၛԉٳࢳѯ֥ྙӮbطᄝႄೆದ৯ሧЧࠣః০Ⴈੱᆭު,৵ᇉሧЧҌିᆇᆞࢳࣜ࠶ᄹӉѯࠏᇅ֥ྙӮbܱࡲՍѯࠏᇅ,ԮѬࠏᇅ,ሧЧ০Ⴈੱ,ඨᇛ௹,ّᇛ௹၂aႄൌ࠽അြᇛ௹ં(RBC)Ⴟ20ൗࡀ20୍սิԛ,30୍սၹնᑟ่൳ऺضථં֥Ԋࠌطാԍ,ᆰ֞80୍սҌᇗྍФܼٗࢤ൳ູޡܴࣜ࠶ѯં֥ᆞ࣮ٚم,ൈ϶۱ൗࡀbቋ୍֥࣍ࠫൌ࠽ഈ൞ᆃ၂ંุ༢ᆇᆞؿტӮࣉ၂҄ປૅބӮඃ֥ં֥ቋᇗေ֥ࢨ؍bᄝᄪ௹ྍܞׅᄹӉંॿࡏ༯ॉ੮ֆ၂ൌ࠽Ԋࠌ(ඌԊࠌࠇᆟکླ֩ൌ࠽ၹ)֥ෛࠏनޙॿࡏ,ᇯࡶವކਔࠊлԊࠌቔູѯ۴ჷᆭ၂طܼٗႋႨႿࠊлࣜ࠶࿐ં;ವކਔҍᆟᆟҦၹ໘эt֥ԊࠌطܼٗႋႨႿҍᆟᆟҦ໙ี֥ٳ༅;ವކਔࡎ۬۽ሧېྟࡌഡฐษࠊлԊࠌ֥ԮѬࠏᇅ,ሧЧטᆜӮЧ,সטᆜӮЧ(ކোଆބsearchଆ,)ॴ௹ูսᄹࡆଽᄝ֥ԮѬࠏᇅbᄝྟყ௹ࡌഡ֥҂ಒקनޙॿࡏ༯,ဝޑሰԊࠌቔູ৫֥Ԋࠌჷ,ᄹࡆਔѯࠏᇅ֥ࢳ৯bᆃ၂ุ༢ವކࡎ۬ྟყ௹ႋႨႿࠊлଆ,ᄹࡆਔࠊлଆ֥ԮѬࠏᇅ֥ࢳ৯b࣍20୍ট֥ᆃུ࣮ᐣЧഈࢳਔѯགྷའᇏ֥ᇶุ҆ٳbᆃུ࣮ଜЧഈ൞ၛଜЧRBCଆॿࡏູԤ,҂؎Ҁԉڿࣉބປ֥,ၹط༝ܸഈಯϜᆃোູ࣮݂RBCো֥࣮,ൌ࠽ഈᄪၘӑᄀਔঈЧRBCଆ֥ଜЧଽݤ,෮ၛϜᆃো࣮ӫູܼၬഅြᇛ௹ંරެ۷ູఞ֒၂ུb,ӧঐ,תն࿐ᇏݓࣜ࠶࣮ᇏྏ;܁ੂถ.Кࣘն࿐ܻܵ࿐ჽb๙ྐቔᆀֹࠣᆶ:܁ੂၒ.Кࣘն࿐ܻܵ࿐ჽႋႨࣜ࠶࿐༢၂,100871;EஹU:ltgong@gࡂ.pku..eucnbdЧ໓֥࣮൳֞ݓࡅሱಖ॓࿐ᶈࣁ֥ሧᇹ(ཛଢщݼb:70271063)ቔᆀۋ྆ബ۠ದބိလؓЧ໓֥Ⴕၭࡹၰ,ࡗൈ္ۋ྆ҕࡆֻࢽᇏݓౝ୍ࣜ࠶࿐ᆀંฆ֥սіؓЧ໓ิԛ֥ྩڿၩb֒ಖ.ቔᆀ໓ሱڵb
804ࣜ࠶࿐(࠱़)ֻ3जሺܴགྷսഅြᇛ௹ં֥ؿᅚ,ॖၛؿགྷ,ᇭ؟֥࣮ࠎЧഈ൞ခሢਆ่ᇶေཌ෬ࢌҭؿᅚఏট֥,၂۱൞ࠢᇏႿଽളᅔӻྟ֥ԮѬࠏᇅ໙ี֥࣮,ਸ਼၂۱൞ܱႿѯࠏᇅ֥ษંbఃᇏؓႿֻ၂۱໙ี֥࣮ޓ؟,ೂഈ෮ൕ,ؓႿֻؽ۱໙ี֥ษં؟ࠢᇏႿѯ۴ჷ֥ฐษ,طؓႿѯݖӱЧദ֥௩༅࣮҂ܔbᆃӮູЧ໓֥၂۱ࠏbЧ໓֥ਸ਼၂ଢ֥൞ฐษൡކᇏݓࣜ࠶֥ᇛ௹ଆb၂۱ݺ֥ଆࣼ൞ေؓൌ࠽ࣜ࠶གྷའଆࢳ֤ݺbൌ࠽അြᇛ௹ଆ֥၂۱ࠎЧყҩ൞:ࣼြ൞ۚ؇ඨᇛ௹֥bᆃ၂ࢲંරެѩ҂ژކݓࣜ࠶ൌ࠽bݓࣜ࠶ൌ࠽ඔऌཁൕ:ࣼြ൞࣍ර٤ᇛ௹֥,ᇀ؟ඨᇛ௹bູહ߶ԛགྷᆃဢ֥໙ี?ᆃ֒ಖაݓሱദ֥ห൹ྟႵܱ,ᆃࣼླေ࣮ൡކݓ౦ঃ֥ଆ,ࠇᆀඪ,ླေ࿙ऎႵ۷ࡆ၂Ϯྟ֥طّ႘۷؟ၹྐ༏֥ଆ,၂ओ߅,ླေ۷ݺ֥ࢳ৯bऌՎ,Ч໓֥ᐣЧනམ൞ᄝᐣЧRBCଆᇏႄೆದ৯ሧЧ,ܒࡹӮਆ҆ଆ,ࠧᇉሧЧളӁ҆ބದ৯ሧЧളӁ҆,ٳљڛՖ҂֥ളӁܱ༢bطਆ҆Ⴛཌྷᆦӻ,ದ৯ሧЧളӁູᇉളӁ҂؎ᄜളসބۚିস,طᇉളӁ҆Ⴛູದ৯ളӁิ܂ᄜളᇉࠎԤbᆃ၂නམ֥Ӂള൞൳ਆᇕනམ֥ఓؿ:၂൞,ઔक़නᇶၬ఼֥ܴׄטসᄝሧЧ֥ളӁᇏ֥थקྟቔႨ,طགྷս༆ٚࣜ࠶࿐࣮ᇏ,স֥ྟٺح္၂Ϯᄝ2/3ၛഈ,ݓࣜ࠶ᇏ֥ᆃ၂ٺحཌྷؓࢠ֮,ᆃ൞၂۱҂ࢳᆭี;ਸ਼၂ఓؿটሱ-CogleyބN~(1995)֥۽ቔ,ૌ֥࣮ᆷԛ,๙ӈ֥၇ঠሧЧטᆜӮЧো֥ଆࢳൌ࠽ࣜ࠶ᇏᅔӻྟ֥නམ൞֥ؓ,ࣇႵંၩၬ,ൌ࠽ഈ,ࢳ৯؇Ⴕཋ,ჹ҂ିԉٳࢳൌ࠽թᄝ֥ᅔӻྟ఼֥؇,ఃଽᄝჰၹ൞,ሧЧטᆜӮЧ֥Чᇉ൞๙ݖྍളሧЧ၂ሧ,টԮᄛ༢ྐ༏ᇌު֥,ሧཌྷؓაൌ࠽ሹሧЧթtটඪཬਔ,ఃൌ࠽႕ཙ৯ޓႵཋbഈඍਆᇕ໙ี֥ሸކ,ಞૌಸၞ҉མ,ದ৯ሧЧႋ֒൞ܱ֥ၹb҂ႋ֒ିܔࢳथColeyބN~(1995)֥໙ี,ط,ߎႋିڿࠎЧRBcଆؓݓࣼြ໙ี֥ࢳbਸ਼ຓ,Ֆඌഈ,BenhabibބFaerrm(1996)০Ⴈਆ҆ଆ(ਆ҂ᇉളӁ҆,)ᆣૼਔᄝ၂۱҆թᄝ־ᄹܿଆ߭Бඌ,ᄵթᄝ҂ಒקनޙࢳ,BenhabibބFaerrm(1998)Ⴛࣉ၂҄ᆣૼਔᄝ၂۱҆ᄹ,၂۱҆ࡨ,طЌӻሹุӈܿଆ߭Б่ࡱ༯,္թᄝ҂ಒקनޙࢳ,ၹط,ૌྩᆞૌ֥ଆູᇉളӁ҆ބದ৯ളӁ֥҆ਆ҆ଆ,ॖၛܙ࠹ࢳ֥թᄝྟ໙ีႋିࢳथbЧ໓֥࣮ࢲݔࡼ߶ᆣൌૌ֥҉མbູਔሙಒ௩༅ބࢳѯࠏᇅ,۴ऌGrenwၛ࠺ބHoffman(1988)֥නམ,ૌϜሧЧ০Ⴈੱଽള߄bGrenwcxؓބHullmanิԛ,ሧ֥ш࠽ႵིྟؓႿӁളѯ൞ᇗေ֥,ྍඌࣇ႕ཙྍሧЧ֥ྙӮ,҂ڿэၘթᄝ֥ሧЧ֥ളӁྟ,ሧЧ০Ⴈੱᄀۚ,ᅼࣸੱࣼᄀۚbᆃ၂නམ൞֥ؓ,ࣇ০ႨᇉሧЧࢳѯࠏᇅ൞҂ԉٳ֥,ၹՎЧ໓ࡼᆃ၂නམܼ֞ದ৯ሧ
ֻ4௹ӧঐ๕a܁ੂถ:ᇏݓࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ᇛ௹აѯ֥࣮805Чၛປૅؓѯࠏᇅ֥૭ඍbЧ໓֥νஆೂ༯:ᄝֻؽ҆ٳૌбࢠਔࣜ࠶ѯࠏᇅ֥ଆ;ᄝֻ҆ٳ,ଜႿԮ֥RBCଆ,ૌࡹ৫ਔႄೆದ৯ሧЧ֥ଆ,ൈษંਔनޙ֥թᄝྟ;ᄝֻඹ҆ٳ,๙ݖඔᆴٚمษંਔनޙׄࠣః໗קྟ;ֻ҆ٳ,ૌษંਔଆࢲݔ֥ࢳაбࢠ;ᄝֻੂ҆ٳ,ૌ۳ԛਔЧ໓֥ࢲંbؽaࣜ࠶ѯ֥ྙӮགྷսѯં֥ᇶุॿࡏଆൔູ:Ԋࠌ~٢ն~ӻ࿃ྟbၹطԊࠌ൞ѯ֥ჷbᆃԊࠌЇও:ඌ֥,ொݺ֥,ࠊлࠇҍᆟᆟҦ֥,ཨٮބሧ֥ၛࠣఃྙൔ֥ሱؿԊࠌ֩bીႵຓളԊࠌ֥౦ঃ༯,ࣜ࠶൬ඔაޙᄹӉ֥नޙਫ਼ࣥഈb҂֥Ԋࠌჷ္ӈФႨႿ߃ٳ҂֥ѯࣜ࠶ଆ,ᆃུ၇Ԋࠌჷطٳ֥҂֥ଆ၂Ϯ္Ⴕ҂֥ԮѬࠏᇅ,২ೂ,ࠊлଆေၛࡎູ۬ᄛุ;ொݺ֥,ཨٮླ֥,ေ၇ौྟყ௹Мࣟ;ԮඌԊࠌ֥ଆӈၛሧЧބॴ௹ูսູ۽ऎbགྷսޡܴ֥၂Ϯࢲંᆷԛ,ࠊлࣇႵ؋௹ིႋ,Ӊ௹ଽ,ࣜ࠶טᆜ֞ሹุࡎ۬б২აࠊлᄹӉ֥ඣbၹط,Ч໓҂Ⴭॉ੮ࠊлིႋbؓႿொݺّ૫֥,োරoဝޑሰp(sunspots)ো֥Ԋࠌ,ޓ؟ࣜ࠶࿐ࡅѩ҂ཌྷྐᆃᇕྐٚ૫֥ת༆߶ؓࣜ࠶Ⴕ؟նൌ࠽႕ཙbၹط,Ч໓҂ॉ੮ᆃٚ૫֥႕ཙbᄪᄝ20ൗࡀ80୍ս,ࣼႵ၂ൌ࠽ஊ֥ࣜ࠶࿐ࡅೂKydiandބPrt,~(1982)Prt,tes956co(1)Ӌngaରpl0Se:(1953)֩ࡔӻൌ࠽Ԋࠌູຸ၂ԊࠌჷbPrescot(1986)ߎᆷԛ,ຸ၂ൌ࠽ඌԊࠌ֥RBCଆࠧॖࢳѯ֥80%bၹط,༯૫ࣇၛൌ࠽ඌԊࠌູԛؿׄٳ༅,҂ႿԮනམ,ૌࡼӑᄀࡥֆॴ௹ูս֥ࢳ϶ࣥbᄝྻඍѯྙӮᆭభ,ૌູٚьఏ,༵݂ࢲࠫ۱ଁีࠇࡌഡ:ଁӋ1ඌࣉ҄ࣇ႕ཙྍሧЧ֥ളӁྟ,၂۱ᆞ֥ඌԊࠌᄹࡆ(༯௹)ᇉሧЧ֥ш࠽ӁԛbଁӋ2ሧЧ(ᇉ֥ࠇದ৯֥)০Ⴈੱᄀۚ,ᅼࣸੱࣼᄀۚbଁӋ3ૄ௹ྍളದ৯ሧЧིିູ৫ٳ֥҃໗ݖӱbభਆ۱ଁี֥නམটሱႿGrenwcodބHufman(1988)֥ӂඍ,҂֥൞ଁี2ܼ֞ਔದ৯ሧЧ,ؓՎ,ૌ֥ࢳ൞ᆃဢ֥:ೂݔࡌקૄ۱ሱಖದૄ௹֥ൈࡗσڮཌྷႵཋູ၂ֆ໊,ॖၛႨႿളӁᇉሧЧބཨٮ,္ॖၛႨႿ࿐༝ᆩ്ބ،ദุၛิۚሱ֥࠭সིੱބି৯,֒ࣜ࠶അᅨൈ,ԉٳࣼြ֥ದૌફႿᇉളӁ֥҆۽ቔ,ીႵԉٳ֥ൈࡗԉ.ၹط.
806ࣜ࠶࿐(࠱़)ֻ3जᄝᆩ്Еᅉ֥ൈս,ઋ۷ॹ൞сಖ֥;ཌྷّ,ᄝࣜ࠶ཡ่ൈ,۽ቔ఼֥؇ބࠏ߶֮,ದૌ၂ٚ૫ग़ܴഈႵൈࡗԉ,ਸ਼၂ٚ૫ູਔࠆ֤۽ቔ(Վൈ۽ቔ֥ࣩᆚ৯ॢభ֥ۚ)္Ф௧୭৯࿐༝ၛิۚሱ࠭,नط,Վൈದૌઋࣼત၂ུbଁี3֥ิԛ൞ඌྟ֥,൞ሱಖದ৯ሧЧनޙӧࣸၛࠣӧࣸੱູӈඔ֥ԉٳྟ่ࡱbགྷᄝটुႄೆඌࣉ҄ᆭު,ࣜ࠶ᇏؿളਔଧّུႋ?ૌ൮༵ࡌקࣜ࠶ԩႿޙᄹӉ֥नޙሑbࣜ࠶َԚ௹,ാြੱཌྷؓࢠۚ,সӮЧࢠ֮,ۚᇉਈ֥ದ৯ሧЧཌྷؓૡ؇္ۚ,၂֊ԛགྷඌࣉ҄,сಖࣉ၂҄ڿሧߌ(ଁี,l)ࣜ࠶ᇏყ௹Ⴕ০ॖ֥ሧࠏ߶ڜԛඣ૫,ࣜ࠶ᇏྟ֥սіྟ۱ದࠇࡅ๖ࡨഒ֒௹ཨٮ,ᄹࡆሧ(ၹູყ௹൬ೆބᄹࡆ҆ٳ֥ш࠽ིႨնႿ֒௹ࡨഒ֥ପ҆ٳཨٮջটི֥Ⴈiॴ௹ูսིႋb)ࣜ࠶ᇏٳ֥ࡅ๖ሧ֥ᄹࡆіགྷູਆᇕࣥ:ᆰࢤ֥ڄགሧބཌྷؓڄག֥ၿྛԥྐྵྛູ,భᆀ֥ᄹࡆ၇ঠყ௹ڄག߭Б֥ᅼགྷᆴۚႿ֒௹ཨٮ֥ш࠽ིႨ,ުᆀ၇ঠႿॴ௹नޙ่ࡱ(ࠇส০ࠏ߶)֥ေi۷֥ۚ০ੱ(ڎᄵ,ڄགሧაཌྷؓڄགሧᆭࡗԛགྷส০ࠏ߶b)০ੱ֥ഈശՏࠗ֒௹সބԥྐྵ֥ᄹࡆ,ࣜ࠶ᇯࡶࠃᄁ,Ӂԛᄹࡆ,ࣜ࠶ࠃَ,ࣸሧЧ০Ⴈੱᄹࡆ,ྍሧЧ҂؎ྙӮ,ൈࣸሧЧ֥ᅼࣸੱ္षഈശ(ଁี,2)ၛᇀႿᇯࡶַཨш࠽ሧЧ߭Бbൈෛሢሧ֥ᄹࡆ(ሧЧބস֥ࢲކ,)ാြࡨഒ,ࣜ࠶ᇏۚᇉt֥ದ৯ሧЧ(ིۚস)ૡ؇षࢆ֮(ଁี,,23)ሧЧ࿙ሿཌྷস֥ӮЧഈശ,ሧЧაসӮۿࢲކ֥ۀੱ༯ࢆ,ሧЧაসࢲކ֥ყ௹ш࠽ࠆ০ି৯༯ࢆ,ሧष༯ࢆ;ਸ਼၂ٚ૫,ᆃ௹ࡗ,০ੱႄؿ۽ሧބࡎ֥۬ഈശᇯࡶѯࠣ֞۷؟֥҆,ၛᇀႿᆜ۱ࣜ࠶ᆜุ,ᆃဢྍളሧӮЧᇯࡶิۚ.ࣉ၂҄ࢆ֮ਔൌ࠽ሧ֥ш࠽߭Бੱ(ࠇყ௹ш࠽߭Бb)ࣜ࠶ᇏ֥ྍളሧࠏ߶ᄀটᄀഒ,ྍളሧЧᅝሹሧЧթਈб২ष༯ࢆ,Վൈࣜ࠶၇ಖࠃᄁ,ᆜุሧЧ০Ⴈੱ၇ಖޓۚ(ཌྷؓࣸႵሧЧ০Ⴈੱषശۚ,б২ᄹն,)ఃࢲݔ൞ᆜุթሧЧ(ЇওᇉሧЧބದ৯ሧЧ)֥ᅼࣸੱषഈശ,طш࠽߭Бੱ҂؎༯ࢆbఃൌ࠽ࣜ࠶ࢲݔ൞,ࣜ࠶َղ֞ۚӖ,ቋԚඌԊࠌི֥ႋࡶാ,ֻ၂֥ሱಖᄹӉࢨ؍ࢲඏbࢤ༯ট֥ܣ൙նֻุ၂ࢨ؍֥౦ྙཌྷّb֒ࣜ࠶ᇏनሧЧш࠽߭Бੱ҂؎༯ࢆطԬᄀӉ௹न֥नޙඣު,ሧ࿃ࡨഒ,ყ௹҂ࡄ֥ሧЧषԎฦ,ሧЧসቆކ҂؎ࢳุ,ࣁವ൧ӆၘ༵௹ཡ่,০ੱ૫ਢ৯,ყ௹൬ೆ༯ࢆၝᇅཨٮࣉ၂҄ᄹӉ,Ӂࠒ,ളӁࡨഒ,ാြᄹࡆ,ႮႿྍളሧЧ֥ࡨഒ,ࣸሧЧ০Ⴈੱࣉ၂҄ഈശ,ᅼࣸੱ҄ശۚ,ఃࢲݔ൞ളӁིੱ֥ࣉ၂҄༯ࢆ,ሧЧসቆކࢳุ֥ᄹࡆ,০ੱФ௧҂؎༯טbః႕ཙ൞:၂ٚ૫ॴ௹ูսིႋᄹࡆ֒௹ཨٮ;ਸ਼၂ٚ૫,ყ௹൬ೆིႋၝᇅཨٮ,ਆᆀ֥ሸކིႋथקཨٮ֥ሼཟbࣜ࠶ۚӖሼཟක֥Ԛ௹,భᆀᅝႪ,ყ௹൬ೆིႋᇯࡶᄹ఼;֒ࣜ࠶༯ࢆᇀनޙඣൈ(ՎൈሧЧш࠽ӁԛՖ
ֻ4௹ӧঐ๕a܁ੂถ:ᇏݓࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ᇛ௹აѯ֥࣮807ط০ੱொޙ؇္ູਬ)ყ௹൬ೆིႋᅝႪ,ཨٮष༯ࢆ,ᆰ֞ყ௹൬ೆིႋّཟູᆸbaଆࡹ৫ࠣࢳ֥ษંࡌקࣜ࠶ᇏႵྸ؟ྟ֥ٳ֥ཌྷ֥ࡅ๖ࠇ۱ದ,ૄ௹ႚႵ၂ֆ໊সσڮ,ॖၛႨႿᇉሧਘ֥ളӁࠇದ৯ሧЧ֥ളӁ,ॉ੮ቋն߄ఃളଁ௹௹ຬቋն߄໙ี:,(I)பѾ,2x.,{maEѾ1.{,{ൃc,logc,,}}}(1)n.:++,xn1గ++,,xగ+,zగ+Jm.ࠫ+c,గ+I,jؽ0൳ჿඏႿy:++k,1၂(l၂ᅝ,,)k:,+c,+j+:g,՛ഒb,,(2)y:h,1၂(1၂Ֆ+,)h:,ᆓࡊ,+,,(3)༓,,=A:,,(e:,Ӂ,+,)n၂o(x,Ӂ:o,,)o<b,<1(4),c,၂Bbc,+,g{ህj((m၂,,)a,,,)m2,o<bm<lm=,,12(5)ᅝ,ਔ,ؽbb,,,>lb:+,,7(0lࠫર་a݃,+၂,aӁ֗༓J.,)6,Rۅ1െ,Ֆ+,+,j=:+,,b)1x:,(01)7lငA:=PIӹA:၂l+b,,Bb,b,৫ڛՖ,N(0१,)ᆃ෮Ⴕཬཿሳଛіൕ֥эIၘࣜཨಀਔದ१ބሱಖ൝ᄹӉު֥,tyіൕՎ൝ҕඔ,::սіᇉཨٮ,,gսі،ࠣ࿐༝ิ֥ۚཨٮ,b,ބູսіਆᇕሧЧ০Ⴈੱbٚӱ(l)קၬսіྟࡅ๖֥௹ຬིႨ,ႅݣਔ༯૫ਆ۱ࡌഡ:ࡌഡ(a:)ᆺႵཨٮࣜ࠶ᇏຸ၂ᇉཨٮmҌିջটིႨbࡌഡ(b):෮Ⴕࡅ๖ॖ֒௹थקཨٮބᇉሧЧ০Ⴈੱ,ླᄪ၂௹थקᇉሧЧ֥ሧބದ৯ሧЧ֥ᇉཨٮބ০ႨੱҌିؓ֒௹ࣜ࠶Ⴕ܊ང,ླิభਆ௹थקದ৯ሧЧ֥ሧҌିؓ֒௹Ⴕ႕ཙ(ࠧসбሧЧႵ۷Ӊ֥ሧᇛ௹b)ٚӱ(2)ބٚӱ(3)ٳљູਆᇕሧЧ֥ሧჷჿඏཨಀ൝ު֥ٚӱ,y,ބࡊ,ٳљіൕਆᇕሧЧ֥ളӁӁԛbٚӱ(4)ބٚӱ(5)ႅݣਔ༯૫֥ࡌഡ่ࡱ:ࡌഡ(b):ᇉሧЧ֥ളӁඌູӈܿଆ߭Б,थקႿਆᇕሧЧ֥Ⴕི০Ⴈ,t൳ຓ҆ඌԊࠌA,֥႕ཙbࡌഡ(:d)ದ৯ሧЧ֥ྙӮ౼थႿਆ۱҆ٳ:ෛࠏ֥ሱಖᄜളग़ܴ҆ٳ
808ࣜ࠶࿐(࠱़)ֻ3जB,ބ(ಪູ୭৯ॖള֥)ᇶܴ҆ٳ,ުᆀ൞ਆᇕሧЧೆਈ֥ݦඔb01ބࠫٳљіൕਆᇕሧЧ֥܊ངྟ,(֒8:+82=1ൈູӈܿଆ߭Б,>1ൈູᄹܿଆ߭Бb)ࡌഡ(e:)ದ৯ሧЧ(স)ؓႿਆ֥҆ႋႨ൞ປಆูս֥(ࠧ,༽ᇂ֥҆ٳࠧಆ҆ႨႿਸ਼၂҆)nbႮٚӱ(6)ބٚӱ(7)קၬ֥ᅝބ,ٳљູᇉሧЧބದ৯ሧЧ֥ᅼࣸੱ,ҕა૭ඍᇉሧЧkބದ৯ሧЧh֥ॴ௹ูսིႋb၇ଁี,2ૌٳљ൞ᇉሧЧ০Ⴈੱb,ބದ৯ሧЧ০Ⴈੱx:֥ᄹݦඔ(Ⴎଁีb2)ҕඔaބbіൕྟbູࡥֆఏ,Ч໓ϜB:ुቓ໗֥ӈਈ,ᆺႵඣིႋ,ીႵѯ႕ཙbٚӱ(8)іൕຓളඌڛՖAR(l)ݖӱbඹaෛࠏ໙ีࢳ֥թᄝྟ໙ีษંഡKؽ},0+,co)H=},0+co)ٳљіൕଆሑэਈkބh֥౼ᆴॢࡗ,KބHٳљູఃBorelսඔ,zؽ}ধ,xіൕຓളෛࠏඌԊࠌ֥ሑॢࡗ,ZູఃBorelսඔ,קၬ,(SS)=(KxH,xZKxHxZ)ᄵູॖҩӰࠏॢࡗ,קၬQູॖҩॢࡗ,(ZZ)ഈ໗ሇߐݦඔ,ഡr:KxHxZaKxHູሑჿඏؓႋ,ࠧӌ(k:,,h,ؽ:)іൕ֒௹ሑэਈູ,,k,h,:,ൈ༯၂௹ଽളሑэਈ֥ॖ࿊ࠢ,ᄵཁಖrႮٚӱ(2)ބٚӱ(3)קၬbקၬrູ֥:A=,m,,m.{(kkhh2)K,,xKxHxHn,mxZ:(kh)ൃ(khz,)}ႮՎॖקၬֆ௹߭БݦඔF:A~Rູ:F,n,,m,(kkhhz)=1llaXl(ٹ)qr(ࠫࠫ.)qoegR۴ऌၛഈקၬၞ֤༯૫ࢲં:ં1ӌູ٤ॢ,৵࿃֥ؓႋ;֥ॖҩ,طթᄝॖҩ࿊ᄴbં2F:A~Rູॖҩ,१ູA֥a-սඔ,Fv,0৵࿃bᆃဢ,Ⴎ,StokcyބLucas(1989)ᇏק.92ࠣק.912ૌᆩ֡ቋႪ໙ี(I)֩ࡎႿ༯૫֥ٗݦٚӱ໙ี,(11)թᄝຸ၂ࢳb,,(11c)(*c;)၂(,,**v࠻,m.:)F{o,o,m,hz)+ॖvm,mdؽc,,(khzm))Q(z,Z}ൌ࠽ഈ,ᆃၘࣜႋႨਔLucas(1988)֥ದ৯ሧЧଆᇏ۽,֥ܿקb
ֻ4௹ӧঐ๕a܁ੂถ:ᇏݓࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ᇛ௹აѯ֥࣮809ᆃဢ,ૌ֤֞၂ࢨ่ࡱࠣޘࢩྟ่ࡱ:cؽ,=,,;(9)EѾ1{ሞ,[ൔ+1၂ᅝ:၂]ਟѾ1Ѿb,(10)E:၂2{ሞѾ1,ؽ၂,+ؽ:၂1[ࡊؽ၂,+l၂Ֆ၂1၂]wѾ2,Ѿb,(11)༓m၂ᅝ:k:=,0(12)E,၂,၂:!*1,ؽ_,+wb၂1[,ؽ_,၂၂::၂1,;;]Ѿb,(13)Et၂lದ,၂1၂w:၂1ࡊؽ၂1}=,o(14)؋.:+1,=0ބlimದt+lw,=0(15)۴ऌᆃ่ུࡱ,ૌॖၛथקࣜ࠶֥ᇶေޡܴэਈbູਔ֤֞ؓඔཌྟ߄֥༢,ૌ҂ษંनޙ֥ׄթᄝྟ໙ีb༯૫ૌটࣉྛऎุٳ༅bႮቋႪ่ࡱ(9)၂(14)ࠣሧჷჿඏ่ࡱ(2)ބ,(3)ૌᆩ֡नޙׄડቀ༯૫่֥ࡱ:a16(ԫgѾݾo)၂o2(ඎoѾrగ၂xm၂0,(16)co1m*mg+,o2(*/ཬ(Ѿࡎm၂,၂/,b,)(17)ඎo၂,ࡎm၂,1(18)(1၂a)ഒ/k=ea,(19)(1၂a)ഒ/k+1၂eaa=ਔ//ᄅ,(20)()+baa၂/1)k༓+m༓.+g༓=///1(21)۴ऌٚӱ(l9)ބ(20)ॖၛຸ၂थקy/kބb(Ⴈྒݼіൕ໗ᆴ):len=[(ਔ/ႃ၂l)(1၂la/)xa,(22)۽k(1၂a)(1၂la(23)/)Ⴎٚӱ,(16)(17)ބ(18)ॖၛ֤ܱ֞Ⴟx֥սඔٚӱ:ၻ၂m+o,o၂m-,ၻ၂1ؽ)ཬ၂ݣcฯ၂(Ѿႄxb+l(24)קၬٚӱ(24)Ⴗ؊֥ݦඔູf(x,)x֥Ⴕၩၬࡗູ},01;]קၬٚӱ(24)ቐ؊֥ӈඔູbRၹູਔ(x)ᄝ},0l]ഈ৵࿃,طડቀf(0)ؽ0,f(l)ؽy/ᄅ၂1+ࠫ,/b>R෮ၛ,ٚӱ,(24)ᄝ[0l]ഈႵᇀഒ၂۱ࢳbࣉ၂҄,֒ࠫ)1၂l/bൈ,ݦඔf(x)ᄝ,[0l]ഈֆט־ᄹ,ၹՎᆃ۱ࢳߎ൞ຸ၂֥bᆃဢ,༢թᄝຸ၂֥नޙࢳ(ၹູ,۴ऌຸ၂थק֥xᆴ,Ⴎٚ
810ࣜ࠶࿐(࠱़)ֻ3जӱ,(18)ॖၛຸ၂थקࡊ/hࣉطႮٚӱ(l7)ބ(16)थקຸ၂֥ࡊg/ބಫbgᄜႮٚӱ(2l)ຸ၂ࢳ֤by,/Ֆط༢֥नޙࢳ൞ຸ၂֥b)ᆃဢ,ૌ֤֞༯૫֥ࢲં:ྟᇉ1ࠫ)1၂,l/b༢թᄝຸ၂֥नޙׄ,ఃᇏ.xႮٚӱ(24)थק,ఃჅэtູ:n၂cm,,ݣ(ؽ)ᗲ၂(bch֗၂ຣaਔဋ१݃ਔaaJ=y1,ሱmj१aല,6,ਔ,lൃseesJ۽g.ਔa.Ӂ၂X/}ႄncb2aO.,ܼ,ahlႿ.xੂ,_1(೫n၂(௩၂ᆸwn{)/oЖ}lmaُleӁ/१le~~(೫nؽn၂l၂}}(,+b၂1)၂mn.}৫n}}}(25)ay,ay,ay,aҕඔ࿊౼aଆ֥ࢳၛࠣ໗קྟٳ༅ᄝഈ૫,ૌၘ֤ࣜ֞ਔଆࢳ֥թᄝྟ,ط֤֞ਔनޙ֥ׄթᄝྟބຸ၂ྟbᄝЧ҆ٳ,ૌᄝഈ૫ษં֥ଜԤഈ૫টษંඔᆴࢳم,ൈ,္ॉ੮൬ඔྟק໙ีބҕඔ֥࿊౼໙ีbᆃུ໙ีؓႿ၂۱ଆ֥ൡႨྟ,ॖྛྟ֩൞ᇗေ֥,ൌ࠽ഈࣼ൞ᆜ۱ଆ໙ี֥၂҆ٳ,ၹط൞҂ॖഒ֥bӈႨ֥ؓඔཌྟ߄ٚم֥නམ൞ခ֣ਫ਼ࣥ၂ࢨཌྟ࣍ර۲༢ٚӱ,֤֞༢эtခ֣ਫ਼ࣥ࣍රொt֥࣍රཌྟٚӱ,ᆃᇕٚم֥൬ིྟ֣ࠣקྟၹ้࣍ࢨඔࢠ֮,сಖ҂߶ݺ,ࢨඔۚႻ߶ᄹࡆگᄖྟ,ӮЧޓۚ,ၹطྸ؟ࣜ࠶࿐ࡅ߭хᆃٚ૫໙ี֥ษં,ᆃ҂০Ⴟ໙ี֥ࢳथ,Ч໓ಯ၇ঠӈႨ֥၂ࢨ๙࣍,ᆣૼਔᄝކ֥ҕඔᆴٓຶଽ,࣍රଆ༢֥֣קྟbഈ၂҆ٳᇏቋႪ่ࡱ(9)၂(14)ཨಀ႕ሰࡎ۬ᆜၞ֤༯૫ඹ۱ٚӱ,ఃᇏၘႨ௹ຬᄎෘمᄵ:E,၂ZE:၂:=E:၂2,֤֞,Ja,,m_bf1y,lm၂m\am၂on,oom+1၂m၂7ਔocm၂,I=p,,,_fb,wb.,ؽ,1blѾ2\עѾlllLѾiUIm၂m1,9m၂,+L१2,၂l,lnm၂1ؽ၂ຣ٦Ѿmx၂ၻm၂m၂,(,Ѿ1mgѾ1,mgѾ2mc,,၂,0}(1၂a)༓,/k,=erE:၂:a:၂(:,x:၂;{al(ࡊ,၂::၂g,/))၂/62(ࡊ၂1,/(1၂x:၂1))၂xᆭؽ{a:၂:Ѿ.0
ֻ4௹ӧঐ๕a܁ੂถ:ᇏݓࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ᇛ௹აѯ֥࣮811Ϝഈඍඹ۱ٚӱؓඔཌྟ߄,֤֞,(ջࡕݼ֥!࣍ර໗ொt২(2ct9)ؽ109Ⴟ,bູनޙ,,ၘ০Ⴈ࣡नޙ่ࡱ߄ࡥ:)ᄅฑll..J.,.seaJ,E,၂1༓,၂൞t၂ٹ၂ᆚٹ၂ait၂c0}:၂:2(b၂1){л:၂:+ሰ၂၂,,b2෦Ѿ1+b2};}෦+၂,,}a:၂:ൃn,anlഈ:၂၂,၂,11၂:,-;,,;)Zႃ(cѾ1၂~గൃၻoѾ2၂ٲ၂2၂ᄉ,၂2,ؽ(310,༓,၂൞:၂aetؽ0,bJ_b.:b{_Ѿ:၂b2XbѾn11mࡊѾ,ਔo}Zh1၂x၂a)(ٙੂ၂a,၂:)c၂abxగ,၂1-wb}U,m၂h(1၂x)2۽Ѿ!၂bc}(32)ؓሧჷჿඏ่ࡱ(2)ބ่ࡱ(3)ބളӁݦඔ(4)ބളӁݦඔ(5)ཌྟ߄֤֞(ຓളԊࠌэtनޙᆴ֥նཬᆺႵඣིႋ.ູࡥֆࡌקູ1:)cќc,၂௪:၂ൕ:၂ఖbཬ၂ᆚm:၂:,ਔ.am.ਔJଽxଽJ,ᄅ)4ΰaਔӁ,p,၂ࢺ,+Ѿ(ᇝm:၂༓:=A,+(l၂bb)(ٹ:+൞,+)(ಆ,+ࠫ:,)ᆚ:=,+oaᄉ:+o2ದ:၂o25७נ.ӯ:,(36)ຓളಠٚӱ:A,=ЗѾ1,,ؽ0.(37)קၬX=e,m,,,(gxe,༓,,kದ,A,,BT)ᄵࢳٚӱ(29)၂ٚӱ(37)֥ܱᄝႿࢳ༯ٚӱ:McE:၂2ນ၂,=Ncۥ:၂2(38)ൌ࠽ഈᄝt၂2௹,ۥ:၂,֥҆ٳٳ!ၘᆩ,ؓࢳٚӱી႕ཙbಖުᇗگ࠹ෘࠧॖ:McEѾ1ۥ,=cNۥѾ.l,Mcۥ,=cNѾۥ1෮ၛ,ෘم֥קྟ౼थႿٚӱ(38)֥༢ඔइᆔM,Nbࡥֆ࠹ෘၞ
812ࣜ࠶࿐(࠱़)ֻ3जᆩ,M,NႵ༯6:4֥ٳॶіൕ:ൃ1AOUၙᄅ1X6B6x4Mؽ(39)-D;a;xP6x6O6x-;W4x6V4x4ఃᇏOіൕਬइᆔ,,Dvູؓ࢘ᆔ,ࡥֆ࠹ෘ֤֞ٚӱ(38)ॖڿཿູ(ູࡥֆസಀ௹ຬژݼ:)AX+l+tlBxᗲmؽࢡ,ܨᗲm=ᠼЏ+ฑ,,=xtl+A၂,(P၂၂,BDૼՖ၂A၂,၂,B,Dvx1n=x1+D၂,ᠼD၂,;VXᖫ,ࠇᆀཿູl၂A၂IBࣸOXt၂D၂I)Vϲ(40࠺ֻؽ۱इᆔູ,Jᄵൔ(40)൬৻ྟ౼थႿ,JطJ֥หᆘᆴູࠢA၂mpބD၂nv֥หᆘᆴ֥ࠢѩ,D၂nVಯູؓ࢘ᆔ,ؓ࢘ཌჭູࠧหᆘᆴ,ࡥֆ࠹ෘᆩٳљູ(l၂ܞ.,)/y(l၂ᅝn)y,/py/ބ,0yູ൝ੱնႿ,1pູຓ҆Ԋࠌሱཌྷܱ༢ඔ,ཬႿ,1ᅝnູᇉሧЧनޙᅼࣸੱ,նႿ,0ཬႿ,1෮ၛ,D၂mV֥หᆘᆴಆ҆ཬႿb1A၂nൃ֥หᆘᆴܙ࠹ັઐِ,ᇿၩ֞P֥หׄࣼࡥֆਔ,ൌ࠽ഈ,Pᆺᄝభਆྛ,భ3ਙ֥ഒඔࠫ۱໊ᇂഈ٤ਬ,෮ၛ,ෙಖAູડᇇॖ֥,A၂nPູۚ؇ࢆᇇ֥,࠹ෘᆩఃࣇႵਆ۱٤ਬหᆘᆴ,ఃᇏ၂۱ູ,1ਸ਼၂۱҂ಒק,ႮՎ,A၂mPބD၂nV֥หᆘᆴᇀ؟Ⴕ၂۱նႿ,1Վൈູλׄ໗ק֥,֒A၂nൃ֥ਸ਼၂۱หᆘᆴ္ཬႿ1ൈ,ູ་ႄ໗קࢳbႮՎૌႵࢲં:ྟᇉ2ଆ۳ԛ֥ࣜ࠶ᇏ,नޙׄ൞λׄ໗ק֥,֒A၂nP֥หᆘᆴ҂նႿ1ൈႵ་ႄࢳbੂaҕඔᆞა൫ဒ۴ऌൌ࠽ބࣜဒࢲં,ૌ࿊౼֥ҕඔ౼ᆴіb1ᄝі1ᇏyսіসބඌ֥൝ᄹӉੱ.,1֥4၂.1֥8൞ӈႨܙ࠹(২:Ki٦ބRჾb,(l99))ط,ሹุӉ௹नطႋ൞նٓຶ၂ᇁ֥,Ч໓൫ဒіૼ,ଆࢲݔؓః҂ૹۋ;aսіসӁԛྟٺح,ݓ࿐ᆀ࠹ෘࢲݔࠇႨᆴҵљޓն,Ֆ.0016֞.06҂֩bݓຓ࿐ᆀ؟Ⴈ2/3(ࣼૅݓࣜ࠶b)Ч໓࣮ಪູ,֒সದඔॉ੮ᄝଽൈ.,06൞նุކ֥,֒ཨԢসᄹӉၹ໘ު,স഼ࣇսіসൈࡗࠇࣼြඣൈ,ᆃ၂ඔऌႋննࡨཬ,طൌ࠽ഈᄝݓসሧჷཌྷؓݖഺ,ሧЧཌྷؓ༎ಌ֥౦ঃ༯,সӁԛྟ൞ႋھჹჹཬႿᆃ۱ඔऌ֥bЧ໓ቓࡥֆᆞൌဒ,֤ԛӉ௹न.02ඣ൞бࢠކ֥,
ֻ4௹ӧঐ๕a܁ੂถ:ᇏݓࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ᇛ௹აѯ֥࣮813ೂݔࣇॉ੮୍࣍ॖି.04൞ކ֥;ᄅսіᅼགྷੱ,၂ϮҐႨ.098ඣ;pູຓളඌԊࠌᅔӻ༢ඔ,ҐႨൌ࠽SolowഺჅᇏ෮ཁൕ֥ඣ;6:іൕᇉሧЧႨႿದ৯ሧЧೆ֥҆ٳؓದ৯ሧЧ֥܊ངྟ,ᆃ၂ඔऌીႵॖҕॉ֥ඔऌ,նਈ֥ඔऌ൫ဒіૼ,༢ؓՎҕඔ҂ૹۋ,ᄝ.04၂.06ᆭࡗ൞ҵၳ֥;१:іൕႨႿದ৯ሧЧڿࣉ֥সؓದ৯ሧЧ֥ളӁྟ,൫ဒіૼႋ҂ཬႿ.,08ҌିႵࢠݺ֥֣קྟ;Aսіनޙඌඣ,ՎҕඔᆺႵඣིႋ,ીႵѯ႕ཙ,ࡥֆ౼,1B္౼ູ1;aބbٳљູਆᇕሧЧᅼࣸੱܱႿሧЧ০Ⴈੱ֥ྟҕඔ,ૌ֥࿊౼൞൫ဒྟ֥,ૌФ࿊ၛሧЧᅼࣸੱބሧЧ০Ⴈੱൈᄝކ֥ٓຶଽ,ᆃ၂ေ֤ૌਔቋ؟֥ൈࡗট൫ဒᆃቆඔऌ,༯і൞ଆଽളԛ֥ҕඔඔऌ:і1ҕსߪऌіҕඔ༯a༓81१2abAB౼ᆴ.....100602၂..0409807604၂06і2ଆଽളҕᣃіҕඔo,۽nܞ.ࡊ.౼ᆴ....0402702039010200(X)37ᄝі2ᇏ,ሧЧ০Ⴈੱ၂ᇁა၂Ϯܙ࠹,ᅼࣸੱ၂ᇁაݓ؋௹ൌ࠽০ੱ,ದ৯ሧЧ০Ⴈੱ࣍රႿႿࣼြੱ,ದ৯ሧЧᅼࣸੱරެࣇႵඌၩၬbaଆࣜ࠶ࢲݔٳ༅აбࢠႄೆದ৯ሧЧ֞ଜЧRBCଆᇏ(༯ӫູHRBCଆ,)Ⴕਆ۱໙ีླေ߭ճ,၂൞HRBCଆᆰࢤބൌ࠽ࣜ࠶бࢠु,ିڎࢠݺֹყҩൌ࠽ࣜ࠶?ؽ൞ބଜЧRBCଆ(༯ӫBRBCଆ)бࢠु,ָ֞ؓBRBCଆࣜ࠶֥ყҩࢲݔႵીႵڿࣉ?ູՎ,ૌ္۳ԛൌ࠽ࣜ࠶֥҆ٳޡܴࣜ࠶ሹt֥ඔऌ࠹หᆘၛࠣBRBCଆ֥ཌྷႋ҆ٳყҩࢲݔbఃᇏ,ൌ࠽ࣜ࠶ඔऌࢲݔ෮Ⴈჰඔऌಆ҆Ֆ۲௹(࠹୍)Ұ֤,࠹ෘࢲݔ൞Ч໓ቔᆀః໓ᅣᇏ֥ࢲݔ(րؿі,)෮Ⴈੲѯෘሰ൞Ban၂,,dpas(28)ࢩ؎Ӊ؇ູ5୍,ૅݓࣜ࠶ູ࠱؇ඔऌ,BaxterބKing(1994)ٳ༅ᆷԛૅݓࣜ࠶ᄝ၂Bandpљૼ,(632)ੲሰ༯,ࢩ؎Ӊ؇҂֮Ⴟ16࠱ིݔቋݺ,Վުྸ؟ቔᆀႨਔ,২ೂ:Stockބwatsonb(1999)Ч໓Ґ֥ࠢݓඔऌ୍ູ؇ඔऌ,ᆃဢؓႋႿݓ୍؇ඔऌ౦ঃ༯ቋࡄੲѯ؍ႋ൞၂୍϶֞ϖ୍,၂୍϶م౼,ቋݺ֥ੲѯ؍ႋ൞ؽ֞ϖ୍ࠇ၂֞ϖ୍,ቋކൡ֥ࢩ؎Ӊ؇ູk=b5ૌ֥࠹ෘࢲݔࠣྙбࢠ္ᆣૼਔᆃ၂ܙ࠹bఃᇏ,ཨٮ,ࣼြބ۽ሧඔऌ୍ཋູ1978၂,2001ඔऌሧჷႵཋ,ॖିթᄝ၂ק༂ҵbBRBC҆ٳࢲݔ္൞Ч
814ࣜ࠶࿐(࠱़)ֻ3ज໓ቔᆀః໓ᅣᇏ֥ࢲݔ(րؿі,)ູਔࢫസږ,طॉ੮֞Ч໓֥ᇗׄ൞HRBCଆ,ᆃ,ؓਸ਼ਆ҆ٳ࠹ෘ҂ቔབྷ༥ࢺകਔ(Ⴕྖ౿ᆀ,ॖᆰࢤ৳༢ቔᆀ෬ေb)ູਔٚьбࢠ,ૌࡼ۱ٚ૫֥ඔऌٳӮඹ҆ٳ,ࠢᇏႿ၂۱іᇏbіb3ක3ᇏݓࣜ࠶ൈࡗਙᇛ௹ྟ૭,1952e2ᓾ1Ӂԛ֥ޘཟཌྷܱѓሙҵcor(x.(t)y(r+ك))66544332100၂ll၂2၂5212၂3၂344၂5566Part၂1ሹӁԛбࢠ၂.....֥001၂.018၂...026၂0110280761֥076028၂.011၂.026၂..018001........HฑBၘY..0ס54015၂.004၂020၂0120190651(X)065019၂.012၂.020၂.004015ԫٕ..֥....,..55014၂001၂.B014~0050240681֥068024၂..005၂.014၂.001014P၂axt2ൌ࠽ࣜ࠶ඔऌሹtӁԛܱ༢ሹփြ.........0026702004047027008၂.00001009012၂.009၂.034၂.043၂.040ֻ၂҆ࣼြ........00370035059060035005၂017၂.025၂.018၂.009၂..017၂.003၂033၂027ֻؽଫຝြ.........၂023၂014၂0/0200301403204047038008၂.024၂.037၂.047ֻ҆ࣼြ.........00339၂038၂.022၂..010၂007013044067071053016၂.019၂037၂.044ཨٮ..........00222၂.058၂..020015028025018013012028038023၂.003၂031Pଆყҧࣜ࠶ሹtሹӁԛ֥܋ྟ....HRϫ)X0ᄇ37၂.009၂..,....022~016012019031036047058037008၂018၂.022၂.....Hᆺ..,.BCE0֥50၂.015004019010၂.021067၂..09၂.062၂013018025008၂.012ჾٕ.H0ၛl၂..017၂010၂.011၂021၂.035၂.......041၂.02701105()067064049034.......Hโٕm..G00878020005၂.014၂0180040470910ળ045002၂.017၂..012007.......Hඛٕ..C0֥.54003၂.002၂.015၂024၂.019005045067068056042034032Part4BචBCଆყҩࣜ࠶ሹtሹӁԛ֥܋ྟཨٮაӁԛ........၂.,mႿ,ؽᄅ၂004၂.0֥၂.00g0UO256790061079075059042032029ሧაӁԛ......001171014၂.002၂.015၂,0Ӌ009067021၂011၂.020၂..006013সაӁԛ........01634014~004၂.015၂.0030096053002၂029၂.034၂.015005০ੱაӁԛ.၂...1328002၂...013၂.00()0320042၂.011၂.041၂.043၂.0220֥008і3ֻ֥၂҆ٳູሹӁԛ֥бࢠbᐣЧഈ,HRBCBRBCҵ҂؟,бࢠݺ֥ყҩԛਔൌ࠽ࣜ࠶ሹӁԛ֥หᆘbֻ၂ਙູRBC໓ངᇏӈඪ֥ၞэྟ(volatility,)ࠧѓሙҵ֥ܙ࠹,BRBC֥ࢲݔնႿൌ࠽ࣜ࠶,HRBC֥ཬႿൌ࠽֥,ၛHRBC֥۷ࢤ࣍၂ུbު૫֥۲ਙູਬ௹భު۲6௹֥ඔऌൈࡗਙ֥ሱཌྷܱྟܙ࠹,ਆଆࣜ࠶֥ყҩ൝ܱ༢൞ཌྷර֥,ଜЧഈ۳ԛਔݺ֥ყҩbі3ֻ֥ؽ҆ٳູൌ࠽ࣜ࠶ඔऌࢲݔbႮႿॖҰ֥֞ඔऌႵཋ,ૌࣇ۳ԛࣼြބཨٮၛࣉྛбࢠb၂۱ૼཁ֥໙ี൞,۲҆ൌ࠽ࣼြթᄝޓն֥҂֥หᆘbնჿၛ1978୍ູٳඣ,1978୍ᆭభ,ݓࣜ࠶ၛ୪ြູᇶ;1978୍ᆭު,۽ြӁᆴᅝGDPᇏ֥б২ᇯࡶᄹۚ,ط,୪ြস္ሱ1978୍ᆭުᇯࡶሇ၍֞ਸ਼ਆ۱҆,ᆃဢ,Ⴈ҂э֥ଆყҩభުބޘཟႵޓն҂֥ࣜ࠶,༂ҵсಖޓն,ູࢫസ࠹ෘӮЧ,Ч໓ໃቓభުࠇ֥҆߃ٳ(҂֥҆߃ٳބభުࠇ۷༥ᇁ֥߃ٳႋ۷ކ၂ུb)
ֻ4௹ӧঐ๕a܁ੂถ:ᇏݓࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ᇛ௹აѯ֥࣮815і3ֻ֥҆ٳູࢡ1ٺBCଆ֥ყҩࢲݔ,Xູದ৯ሧЧ֥০Ⴈੱ,ॖၛ࣍රսіളӁ҆ࣼြ,ބֻඹ҆ٳBRIٕଆყҩ֥স(ࠧࣼြ)Ӂԛ֥ཌྷܱྟ(ࠧ܋ྟ)ཌྷб,ေࢤ࣍Ⴟൌ࠽؟ਔ,ၹູ,ૌु֞,ൌ࠽ࣜ࠶ᇏ,ીႵ၂۱҆ࠇሹุࣼြӯགྷԛ֥ࠞۚሹӁԛ֥܋ྟܱ༢,ᆃඪૼ,ૌቋԚ֥ܙ࠹൞֥ؓ,ࠧದ৯ሧЧ֥ႄೆ֥ಒڿਔؓնޡܴሹਈᆭ၂֥ࣼြ֥ყҩbط,ൌ࠽ഈ္ဒᆣਔૌམ֥ࣜ࠶ѯࠏᇅ֥ކྟbਸ਼ຓ,HRBCଆؓཨٮ֥ყҩ္бBRBCଆ֥ࢲݔ۷ဪ࣍ൌ࠽bՖڸᇏ֥2ॖၛुԛ,HRBCؓൌ࠽ࣜ࠶֥ଆ٤ӈݺbط.ଽളᅼࣸބ০Ⴈੱ֥HRBCଆ۳ԛ۷پڶ֥ყҩଽಸ,ೂ:๙ݖଽള֥ᇉሧЧ০ႨੱॖၛყҩሧЧᅼࣸੱ,০ႨሧЧᅼࣸੱႻॖყҩൌ࠽০ੱ֩bᄝЧ໓ᇏ,ದ৯ሧЧ֥ކࢳ൞Ԏའ֥Ⴕིস,҂Ⴟ၂ϮRBCଆᇏࡥֆֹႨসൈࡗࢳস,ᆃ֥Ⴕིস҂ေႵসൈࡗ֥ݣਈ,ߎ۷఼טসᆀི֥ੱބིି,ᆃᇕིੱིି֥ൌགྷ,ᄝЧ໓ᇏ֥ࢳ္҂ა၂ϮԮಪ്,ԮളӁܱ༢ഡקᇏ,ඌФ৫ٳԛট,ڛՖ৫ܱ༢,ᆃ,ૌ఼טসིੱིି֥ൌགྷაস֥ᄛุiದ൞҂ॖٳ֥,ᇀഒ൞҂ປಆॖٳ֥,൞აসᆀ֥ሑࣅૡཌྷ৵֥bၹط,ൌ࠽ഈ,ದ৯ሧЧ֥ଽݤЇݣඌস֥ᇶေݣၬ(২ೂ,সᆀ֥ᆩ്ඌ߶ၹູᆩ്֥۷ྍބඌࣉ҄طӧࣸ,Ֆط,সᆀദุ֩ః่ࡱ҂э֥౦ঃ༯,সᆀ෮ିิ܂֥ֆ໊ൈࡗ֥সིିࠇႵིস၂ဢ߶ࢆ֮֩,෮ၛૌಪູoসp҂ିࣇࣇࢳູসದඔࠇসൈࡗ,۷҂ି֥ᄛุbᄝᆃဢ֥ၩၬ༯,Ԯiದ,ٳषট)ളӁܱ༢ᇏ֥oসpܼၬູದ৯ሧЧ,ѩᅶభದ֥ഡק(ೂLuc,as)Ч໓ᇏ,ದ৯ሧЧ֥ളӁაᄜളЇݣਆᇕေೆ,ᇉ֥҆ٳބ໓߄֥҆ٳ(ࠇᆀದ৯ሧЧ҆ٳ,)طೆ֞ದ৯ሧЧᄹӉᇏ֥ᇉሧЧ҆ٳG๙ӈॖၛ࣍රࢳູ࢝ტೆ,࣮࢝ტაࣜ࠶ᄹӉࠇѯ֥ܱ༢໙ี,֒ಖ,ᆃࣇ൞၂ᇕ࣍රࢳ,ᆃဢቓॖି҂၂קޓሙಒ,ၹູ࢝ტೆᇛ௹ཌྷؓࢠӉbՖі3ᇏPar,t3ଆHRBC֥ࢲݔཁൕ:(1)ದ৯ሧЧ֥ᇉሧЧೆ҆ٳGࠣದ৯ሧЧ০ႨੱXაሹӁԛۚ؇ᆞཌྷܱ,෮ၛ֒ϜG൪ູ࢝ტೆൈ,ૌॖၛყҩ:࢝ტሧؓࣜ࠶Ӊ௹Ⴕ఼ቔႨb(2)ࠎЧཨٮਙᆞཌྷܱႿሹӁԛ,ཌྷؓ໗,э߄҂ն,ѓሙҵࣇູ..,,00055ჹཬႿӁԛѓሙҵ1/3ඣ,ၹູ.00784=/300261طBRBCყҩ֥ཨٮඣູ.,00267ଜЧࢤ࣍Ӂԛ1/3ඣ,၂ᇁႿ၂Ϯݓຓ࿐ᆀ֥࣮ඣ,ૌམ,෮ၛԛགྷᆃᇕ౦ঃ֥ჰၹ൞HRBCଆᇏ,ཨٮൌ࠽ഈཌྷ֒ႿٳӮਔਆ҆ٳ,၂൞C෮іൕ֥ଜЧളࠃཨٮ҆ٳ,ਸ਼၂҆ٳ൞G෮іղ֥ؓದ৯ሧЧ֥ೆ;طG҆ٳ֥ѓሙҵФଆყҩູ.,00835бሹӁԛ֥ѯྟߎ఼,ᆃඪૼ,ଆყҩؓದ৯ሧЧ֥ᇉೆ҆ٳ֥ࠃྟޓ఼,ೂݔϜGࢳ৯࢝ტೆ,ᄵॖၛಪູ࢝ტೆ֥ѯྟؓࣜ࠶ѯႵᇗေ႕ཙb
816ࣜ࠶࿐(࠱़)ֻ3ज(3)ളӁ֥ᄹӉթਈሧЧཌྷܱ,భࠫ௹֥ሧЧᄹࡆ(ྍളሧ)ᆞཌྷܱb(4)ൌ࠽স০Ⴈੱඣொ֮bڸHRBCଆ֥ሹᄬѯ0nUnU1గjfaُm,l-lo0oar,ວۅ-၂realGDPimedellingoutPut.,๒ರjჾ༝.0050၂.005֗ऄ๒הᇝ၂.010၂pcn࠽၂ᆭ1960197019801࿚~2uᇙr20101ൌ࠽ࣜ࠶აHฑBCଆ୧ࣜ࠶Ӂԛ֥ؓбbᇏႋࠩіൕൌ࠽ࣜ࠶1952e2ᓾ1୍έؓᣃGDPਙࣜݖ,1௵؈ު؈ྙ,ൌࠩіൕଆ୧פᇝӁԛਙশҧJellingouߊԫ.=ؽ=ؽlmedellingeons్mPation..,;ޛϖ.0050ජ၂၂၂၂l-c..၂.005၂.010၂_______._a______,१__a____015}၂n၂J19501960197019801902१ၛ~201021ሀBCଆ۳ԛӁ֥ԛაཨٮؓбbఃᇏ,ၒࠩකൕଆྒࣜ࠶ھҧ֥Ӂԛ.ൌࠩіൕଆ୧ᇝ֥ཨٮඣbՖশྙܱ༢ॖၛԛ,ଆ୧ყᇝ֥ౢ.؈ྟჹཬႿӁԛ֥শྟ,ѩ,ުაӁԛ.၂ؽ.-b-၂]၂.005၂.010၂pcnగቯӁ༯႓Ӂ၂௵ࡍ၂,ଲӌ၂ࡡٳ၂31ಥᇿסଆ୧۳ԛ֥ӁԛაሧЧؓбଢb܋ᇏ,ႋࠩіൕଆ୧ࣜ࠶ყᇝ֥Ӂԛ,ൌိіൕଆ୧ݙᇝ֥ሧЧթtඣbՖশྙܱ༢ॖၛۅԛ.ଆ୧ყҧ֥ሧЧթt֥؈ྟჹཬႿӁԛ֥শྟ,ѩջުაӁԛbᆃ၂۳ݔაԮ۳ંదЧ၂ᇁb
ֻ4௹ӧঐ൙a܁ੂถ:ᇏݓࣜ࠶ᄹӉ֥ᇛ௹აѯ֥࣮817oa2,ocעm20ඳellingouႆut}medellingeaPitalutilitypcp}.oocnpؽm.,၂..pc}c05}:p~ٺᓶൈmϖ.,,ס.-.-:༓.;}၂.J,.ޗmal,b݃ml::၂pc0,၂ocnp}}၂pcn᳟йנ၂19601970198019902uᇝᇝ)201041െܯ(ଆ୧۳ԛ֥Ӂԛაሧଡ০Ⴈੱ֥ؓбಁbఃᇏ,ႋພකൕଆ୧ࣜ࠶ဋᇝ֥Ӂԛ,ൌཫіൕఄ୧ყᇝ֥पᇉሧЧ০ႨੱbՖѯྙܱ༢ॖၛᠱԛ,ఄশᇝ֥.ᇉሧЧ০Ⴈੱ֥؈ྟཬႿӁԛ֥শྟ,ّཌྷაӁԛbᆃ၂۳ݔა໓ᇏ֥ંٳ༅၂ࠆb-၂modcllingoutPut၂mבellinglaborutilityniPᅳԫuctiveᕣtor൙a,.n၂,::၂an.ᗲຣ၂aਔຣ\.inಁ51ሀBCଆ۳ԛ֥ӁԛაളӁ҆স০Ⴈੱؓбbఃᇏ,ႋພіൕଆ୧ࣜ࠶ࠆᇝ֥Ӂԛ,ൌࠩකൕଆყҧ֥ളӁ҆স০ႨੱbՖ؈ྙܱ༢ॖၛۅԛ,ଆ୧ݱҧ֥पᇉሧЧ০Ⴈੱ֥শྟཬႿӁԛ֥؈ྟbᆃ၂۳ݔა໓ᇏ֥ંٳ༅၂ᇁb-၂medellnigoၛPuta၂imۏellnnigcaPitalutilityiteehnologicbϖϖϖ:ϖ:ϖਔඣٳ,.Vۅn.}१61c۳ԛ֥Ӂԛაದ৯ሧЧᇏपᇉሧЧೆܱ༢ଢb܋ᇏ,ႋࠩකൕଆ୧ࣜ࠶ᇝ֥Ӂԛ,ൌࠩіൕଆ୧ݱᇝ֥ದ৯ሧЧളӁ҆ᇏؓࡎᇉሧ*֥০ႨbՖশྙܱ҂ॖၛԛ.ଆ୧פᇝ֥ದ৯ሧЧളӁ.ᇏؓपᇉሧЧ֥০Ⴈ֥؈ྟ҂ཬႿӁԛ֥؈ྟb
818ࣜ࠶࿐(࠱़)ֻ3जҕॉ໓ང[1]൦.n..haboib,JandREF,IndeteؽnacyӋd؍ctorsഫifibExternalities",२oraazofᦟb-.,taryonomೂ,199637rm397၂.419.[2]n-habib,,oIndet~naycandSunsળt,withCးᄅbmicTᆩဝഐ,,,19988158၂.96[3]Cᓽley.,Tޱ..dJMN,oasonOutputDynaZnicsinRea၂lBusines-CࢸleModels,,,ਔಀວApُb-ሃҝRဋྏ༶.,,1995Vၛ.85~....,r[4]Grenwcx࠺,J2HedG,,QࡋcityUtiltion,ᇹ-dtheBusinesCyclep,Acanെco~ࡆ๋,,.198878402၂417[5]K...iᕫ.,RGand5TRehelo,o~ResuscitatiӹRealBusinesCyeles,,,in྿pdࡆ႘ofMහ-ࡆmmcs,Vol్meIB,ehaPter.,.141999927၂l(X)6~...[6t,o]Ky࠭ޱಪ.rEandEePrTi~metoBuildandAggrateFluetp,.uatlonsӋ,metrica.,,1982501345၂1370..r,o[7]్Չ....BJandC1PlR~ealBusinesCyelesp,~lofPolٗtೂIEႮbౡ,1983VOI91.[8]Prၘᶉѻtt,EC,oTheo१ϖೂeඳofBusi~CyeleM,,easureFmٺrmet,nalRBaྋofྀ,~.ࡆ-lቇOuo࢘ᛍ༓Rnྏ్,Fଢ,,11986109၂.22..[9]Stokey,N..LandRELu,casRecuoi,ࡆࢺϰၛminُonomimQଫ१ؽҝ.5HarvrdUniversityPrၘp.,1989GrowthandFluetuationsinChinaEeonomyKUNTINGCHEN(ShandongUni*rsity)LIUTANGGONG(eൃi,9UniႪrsit༓)AࡆtrࡳtByintrඳudthehumancapiඳandtheendᅲutilityratesofphຓincaP-italandheersutmancaPitalintothebasie၂RealBusinCࢸlemඳe,lousthisPapudiesthegrowthand,.nuetustiroonsinCฆnaeconoydurnig1952၂2001Compare༅ththetraditiaonlRealBusinesCyelesmඳe,lourm࠺elݳlbeૌborepowedultoexPlainthegrowthandfluetuationofan,economy,especially,itcanbeuљৌtoexplainemplopmentinChinaၛ֗,,lncationE32E2053
