2009쓪뗚7웚믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈폫랴춨믵엲헍3헅ꆡ뫗ꆡ헅듺잿ꆡ튦ꆡ풶ꆡ헅ꆡ열ꆡꆡ쓚죝쳡튪:놾컄쫗쿈퓚튻냣샭싛뿲볜쿂뾼달쇋춨믵엲헍뗄뻶뚨틲쯘,랢쿖춨믵엲헍틀삵훐퇫틸탐뫍쮽죋늿쏅룷ퟔ뛔뺭볃돥믷뗄풤닢ꆣ좻뫳믹폚탅쾢늻뛔돆탔퇐뺿쇋믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈폫랴춨믵엲헍횮볤뗄맘쾵,랢쿖쳡룟믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈늻뷶폐샻폚복킡춨믵엲헍욫닮,뛸쟒믡붵뗍춨믵엲헍늨뚯ꆣ뺭퇩퇐뺿뷡맻뇭쏷,퓚컒맺믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈쳡룟뗄돵웚,랴춨헍웚쓚뗄컾짼싊쏷쿔뗘룟폚춸쏷뛈쳡룟뫳뗄랴춨헍웚쓚뗄컾짼싊,헢틢캶ퟅ컒맺20쫀볍90쓪듺뫳웚틔살컾짼싊뷏뗍뗄튻룶훘튪풭틲뿉쓜쫇믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뗄훰늽쳡룟ꆣ맘볼듊:믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈ꆡ랴춨믵엲헍ꆡ컾짼싊튻ꆢ틽ꆡ퇔ퟔ20쫀볍90쓪듺돵탂컷삼싊쿈닉폃춨믵엲헍쒿뇪훆(inflationtargeting)틔살,틑폐풽살풽뛠뗄릤튵뮯맺볒뫍훐뗈쫕죫맺볒(샽죧볓쓃듳ꆢ펢맺ꆢ죰뗤ꆢ냄듳샻퇇ꆢ얲췾ꆢ뷝뿋ꆢ냍컷ꆢ틔즫쇐ꆢ훇샻ꆢ늨삼ꆢ탙퇀샻뫍쏘슳)뾪쪼닉폃헢훖탂뗄믵뇒헾닟쳥훆ꆣFragaetal.(2003)쳡릩뗄쫽뻝뇭쏷,쪵쪩춨헍쒿뇪훆맺볒뗄춨헍쮮욽듳뛠쫽돶쿖쇋쿔훸쿂붵,뛸쟒랢햹훐맺볒쿂붵뗄럹뛈룼듳ꆣ본폚춨헍쒿뇪훆퓚랴춨믵엲헍(disinflation)뫍놣돖컈뚨뗄뗍춨헍뮷뺳랽쏦뗄솼뫃킧맻,Blejeretal.(2000)ꆢSvensson(2000)뫍Mishkin(2004)튻훂횸돶,춨헍쒿뇪훆뗄훷튪쳘뗣횮튻쫇믵뇒헾닟뻟폐룟뛈뗄춸쏷탔(transparency)ꆣ샽죧,믵뇒떱뻖뚨웚랢늼릫룦,쿲튻냣릫훚뷢쫍쯼쏇뗄믵뇒헾닟ꆣꋙ틑폐컄쿗랢쿖,퓶볓믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈믡붵뗍춨믵엲헍싊(FaustandSvensson,2001;Jensen,2002),쓇킩믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈룟뗄맺볒췹췹웤붵뗍춨믵엲헍싊뗄돉놾튲룼뗍(CukiermanandMeltzer,1986;FaustandSvensson,2001)ꆣ맘폚믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뗄샭싛뿉틔ힷ쯝떽Kydland뫍Prescott(1977)쳡돶뗄ꆰ뚯첬늻튻훂탔ꆱꆣꆰ뚯첬늻튻훂탔ꆱ틢캶ퟅ죧맻훐퇫틸탐풤쿈릫늼쇋놣돖뗍춨믵엲헍뗄ퟮ폅믵뇒헾닟,떫퓚쯦뫳횴탐맽돌훐,웳춼샻폃릫훚틑뺭탎돉뗄뗍춨믵엲헍풤웚,횴탐쿠믺뻱퓱뗄헾닟,쓇쎴릫훚뗄샭탔톡퓱쫇룹뻝훐퇫틸탐뗄ퟮ폅뮯컊쳢,훘탂좷뚨ퟔ벺뗄춨믵엲헍풤웚,뷸뛸쪹훐퇫틸탐뗄뻶닟뮷뺳뛱뮯,뷡맻떼훂춨믵엲헍듦퓚욫닮(캺폀럒,2004)ꆣꆰ뚯첬늻튻훂탔ꆱ뗄쳡돶듙쪹헾닟훆뚨헟뇘탫ퟱ듓폐풼쫸솦뗄맦퓲살쿻돽헾닟룄뇤뗄뿉쓜탔,쳡룟헾닟뗄뿉탅뛈,쿻돽ꆰ뚯첬늻튻훂탔ꆱ떼훂뗄헾닟컞킧탔ꆣ퓶잿믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈쫇튻훖뿉틔톸쯙뛸폐킧뗘쳡룟훐퇫틸탐뿉탅뛈뗄냬램ꆣSvensson(2000)죏캪,쳡룟믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈폐샻폚볓잿릫훚뛔믵뇒헾닟뗄샭뷢,듓뛸쳡룟헾닟쒿뇪뫍훐퇫틸탐뗄뿉탅뛈ꆣ퓚춨헍쒿뇪훆쿂,퇫탐릫늼웤뛔춨믵엲헍뫍닺돶뗄풤닢,헢퇹뻍캪췢늿볠맜쳡릩쇋뿉쓜탔,3ꆡ헅뫗,훐맺죋쏱듳톧닆헾뷰죚톧풺,폊헾뇠싫:100872,뗧ퟓ폊쿤:hezhang@;헅듺잿(춨톶ퟷ헟),벪쇖듳톧짌톧풺,폊헾뇠싫:130012,뗧ퟓ폊쿤:daiqiangzhang@1261com;튦풶ꆢ헅열,벪쇖듳톧짌톧풺ꆣ놾쿮쒿쫜맺볒짧믡뿆톧믹뷰훘듳쿮쒿(07&ZD012)뫍훐맺죋쏱듳톧ꆰ985릤돌ꆱퟔ평첽쯷뿆퇐쿮쒿뗄훺ꆣퟷ헟룐킻쓤쏻짳룥죋뗄놦맳틢볻,떱좻컄퓰ퟔ뢺ꆣꋙꆡ샽죧,탂컷삼뒢놸틸탐ꆢ펢룱삼틸탐뫍죰뗤퇫탐뚼돶냦폐맘쳵볾춨헍풤닢뗄춼뇭ꆣ펢룱삼틸탐뮹퓚쎿듎믡틩뗄쇹훜쓚돶냦믵뇒헾닟캯풱믡뗄믡틩볇슼ꆣ탂컷삼뒢놸틸탐뚭쫂믡붫룹뻝춨헍뗄쪵볊뇭쿖뛔틸탐맜샭헟뗄뇭쿖ퟶ돶움볛ꆣ55
헅ꆡ뫗뗈:믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈폫랴춨믵엲헍뷸뛸믱뗃릫훚뛔퇫탐뛀솢탔벰웤믵뇒헾닟뗄횧돖ꆣFaust뫍Svensson(2001)뾼달쇋춸쏷뛈퓚튻냣믵뇒헾닟쳥쾵(폈웤쫇춨헍쒿뇪훆)훐뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ평폚뛔뻍튵쒿뇪늨뚯뗄맘힢,퇫탐폐뿉쓜틑뺭욫샫틑탻늼뗄춨헍쒿뇪ꆣ뻍튵쒿뇪뛔퇫탐뛸퇔쫇쮽죋탅쾢,뛔쮽죋늿쏅퓲쫇늻뿉맛닢뗄뇤솿ꆣ쮽죋늿쏅횻쓜맛닢떽뫪맛뷡맻,틲듋늻쓜췪좫췆뛏돶퇫탐뗄뻍튵쒿뇪,헢뻍닺짺쇋쮽죋늿쏅뛔퇫탐짹폾뗄죏횪뫍뛔춨헍풤웚뗄컊쳢ꆣ쳡룟춸쏷뛈틢캶ퟅ쮽죋늿쏅뿉틔룼ힼ좷뗘췆뛏퇫탐뗄뻍튵쒿뇪,헢붫쪹뗃퇫탐뗄짹폾뫍쮽죋늿쏅춨헍풤웚뛔퇫탐뗄탐캪뇤뗃룼볓쏴룐,듓뛸쳡룟퇫탐욫샫춨헍쒿뇪뗄돉놾뫍ힷ쟳쳘뚨뻍튵쒿뇪뗄돉놾ꆣ틲듋,쳡룟춸쏷뛈붫듙쪹퇫탐룼퇏룱뗘ퟱ듓쯼횮잰탻늼뗄헾닟ꆣStasavage(2003)럖컶랢쿖,뻟폐튻뚨춸쏷뛈뗄퇫탐춨맽릫늼뫪맛풤웚붫믡쳡짽웤탅폾,뷸뛸쳡룟뺭볃닺돶ꆣ룃쒣탍뗄맘볼퓚폚,죧맻퇫탐뻶뚨닉좡랴춨믵엲헍뗄듫쪩,퓚뻟폐뷏룟믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈쳵볾쿂,풤웚춨헍쮮욽붫믡뫜뿬뗘붵뗍,춬쪱랴춨헍뗄듺볛(샽죧쪧튵뫍닺돶쯰쪧)튲룼킡ꆣ쒣탍뮹뇭쏷,쯰쪧몯쫽훐닺돶컈뚨탔좨훘풽듳,랴춨헍뗄듺볛뻍풽킡ꆣ맘폚믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈폫랴춨믵엲헍뗄뺭퇩퇐뺿,Bernankeetal.(1999)샻폃컾짼싊뛈솿쇋뛾듎쪯폍캣믺틔뫳뫍20쫀볍90쓪듺돵웚탂컷삼ꆢ볓쓃듳ꆢ죰뗤뫍펢맺퓚닉폃춨믵엲헍쒿뇪훆틔뫳랴춨믵엲헍돉놾쿂붵뗄쟩뿶ꆣ뷡맻뇭쏷,싊쿈쪵탐춨헍쒿뇪훆맺볒뗄랴춨믵엲헍돉놾늢쎻폐쏷쿔복짙,떫춨맽릫뾪탻늼춨믵엲헍쒿뇪,릫훚뗄춨믵엲헍풤웚놻ꆰ쎪힡ꆱ,믵뇒헾닟폐쇋쏷좷뗄랽쿲ꆣCecchetti뫍Krause(2002)춨맽뾼달24룶OECD맺볒뗄욽뻹춨헍싊ꆢ뫪맛뺭볃뇭쿖틔벰헾닟컞킧싊컊쳢폫춸쏷뛈랢쿖,퇫탐춸쏷뛈뗄쳡룟폐훺폚붵뗍욽뻹춨헍싊ꆢ룄짆뫪맛뺭볃뇭쿖ꆣChortareasetal.(2002)춨맽뛔87룶맺볒뷸탐뫡뷘쏦퇐뺿뫳랢쿖,뛔듳뛠쫽맺볒뛸퇔,믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈믡붵뗍춨믵엲헍뗄돉놾ꆣ쇭췢,폃컾짼싊뛈솿뗄랴춨헍돉놾폫믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈돊랴뇈ꆣDemertzis뫍Hallett(2003)뛔OECD맺볒뷸탐뺭퇩퇐뺿뫳랢쿖,춸쏷뛈뿉틔붵뗍춨헍싊뗄늨뚯,떫늻펰쿬욽뻹춨헍폫욽뻹닺돶쮮욽ꆣ퇮붨쟥뗈(2006)춨맽샭싛럖컶죏캪,퇫탐춸쏷뛈뿉틔붵뗍닺돶뫍춨헍싊뗄늨뚯,떫늻펰쿬욽뻹닺돶폫욽뻹춨헍싊ꆣ샻폃26룶탂탋쫐뎡맺볒뗄쫽뻝퇐뺿랢쿖,돽쇋춨헍싊뗄늨뚯틔췢,쯹폐뷡맻뚼횧돖짏쫶뷡싛ꆣ본폚춨헍쒿뇪훆퓚믵뇒헾닟쪵볹훐뗄돉릦,쿄뇳뫍쇎잿(2001)뷏퓧뗘쳡돶쇋컒맺뿉럱틽죫춨헍쒿뇪훆뗄컊쳢ꆣ룟볻(2006)뷡뫏컒맺뗄쪵볊쟩뿶,뇈뷏좫쏦뗘첽쳖쇋춨헍쒿뇪훆퓚컒맺쪵쪩뗄뿉탐탔ꆣ쯻죏캪,컒맺믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뫍릵춨ힴ뿶헽퓚늻뛏룄짆ꋙ,쳡룟컒맺믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈붫폐샻폚춨헍쒿뇪훆퓚컒맺뗄뺡뿬쪵탐ꆣ컒맺훐퇫틸탐ퟔ1984쓪뾪쪼싄탐훐퇫틸탐횰쓜,뛸쳡룟믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈퓲쫇듓1995쓪헽쪽뾪쪼뗄ꆣퟔ1995쓪틔살,컒맺춨믵엲헍싊믹놾캬돖퓚8%틔쿂쮮욽,늢캴돶쿖20쫀볍90쓪듺돵웚랢짺뗄룟춨헍쿖쿳,헢뿉쓜맩릦폚믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈훰늽쳡룟뗄뷡맻ꆣ놾컄뗄훷튪릱쿗퓚폚퓋폃탅쾢늻뛔돆퇐뺿쇋믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈폫랴춨믵엲헍횮볤뗄맘쾵,랢쿖쳡룟믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈늻뷶폐샻폚복킡춨믵엲헍욫닮,뛸쟒믡붵뗍춨믵엲헍늨뚯ꆣ좻뫳,닉폃컾짼싊(sacrificeratio)뛈솿랴춨헍돉놾,뛔컒맺믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈폫랴춨믵엲헍횮볤뗄맘쾵뷸탐쇋뺭퇩퇐뺿ꆣ뷡맻뇭쏷,퓚컒맺믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뾪쪼쳡룟뗄돵웚,랴춨헍웚쓚뗄컾짼싊쏷쿔뗘룟폚춸쏷뛈쳡룟뫳뗄랴춨헍웚쓚뗄컾짼싊ꆣ룹뻝쿠맘퇐뺿뷡맻,컒맺20쫀볍90쓪듺뫳웚틔살뗍컾짼싊뗄튻룶훘튪풭틲쫇믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈훰늽쳡룟뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ놾컄틔쿂뷡릹낲업캪:뗚뛾늿럖쫇쒣탍,뗚죽늿럖쫇뺭퇩퇐뺿,ퟮ뫳늿럖쫇뷡싛ꆣꋙ샽죧룼볓벰쪱뗘룼탂췸햾ꆢ랢늼춳볆쫽뻝믲퇫탐맙풱뗄붲뮰믲놨룦뗈ꆣ듋췢,퇫탐뮹뚨웚랢늼폐맘믵뇒헾닟뗄놨룦믲뾯컯,죧ꆶ훐맺죋쏱틸탐쓪놨ꆷꆶꆢ훐맺믵뇒헾닟횴탐놨룦ꆷꆶꆢ훐맺뷰죚컈뚨놨룦ꆷꆶꆢ훐맺뷰죚쫐뎡랢햹놨룦ꆷꆶꆢ맺볊뷰죚쫐뎡놨룦ꆷ뫍ꆶ훐맺맺볊쫕횧놨룦ꆷ뗈ꆣ56
2009쓪뗚7웚뛾ꆢ쒣ꆡ탍캪쇋퇐뺿믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뫍춨믵엲헍횮볤뗄맘쾵,컒쏇붫붨솢튻룶샭싛쒣탍ꆣ춨맽헢룶쒣탍뿉틔횤쏷,틔훐퇫틸탐뗄헾닟풤룦(forecastpublication)살뫢솿뗄믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뗄쳡룟믡복짙평훐퇫틸탐뫍쮽죋늿쏅횮볤뗄탅쾢늻뛔돆떼훂뗄춨믵엲헍늨뚯,듓뛸폐샻폚놣돖춨헍쮮욽컈뚨ꆣ쫗쿈,컒쏇닉폃Barro뫍Gordon(1983)쳡돶뗄슬뾨쮹탍ퟜ릩룸몯쫽,웤탎쪽캪:y=yn+a(ꛐ-ꛐe)+ꛅ(1)웤훐,y쫇쪵볊닺돶,yn쫇뻹뫢닺돶,a쫇럆샻웖쮹쟺쿟킱싊닎쫽,ꛐ쫇쪵볊춨믵엲헍싊,ꛐe=E[ꛐt|ꚸt-1]쫇믹폚t웚뿉뗃탅쾢벯뛔춨믵엲헍뗄웚췻,ꛅ쫇뻟폐헽첬럖늼뗄쯦믺릩룸돥믷ꆣ평폚듦퓚튻웚쏻틥릤뫏춬,룃뫏춬퓚쎿튻웚돵웚룹뻝릫훚뛔춨믵엲헍싊뗄풤웚뛸훆뚨ꆣ죧맻쪵볊춨믵엲헍뎬맽풤웚,쪵볊릤뻍믡쿂붵,웳튵뻍믡삩듳뻍튵뫍닺돶ꆣ쿠랴,죧맻쪵볊춨믵엲헍뗍폚풤웚,쪵볊릤붫퓶볓,뻍튵뫍닺돶쯦횮복킡ꆣ뛔폚믵뇒헾닟쒿뇪,컒쏇볙짨퇫탐뗄쒿뇪쫇쪹쯰쪧몯쫽뗄풤웚ퟮ킡뮯ꆣ룃쯰쪧몯쫽평닺돶뫍춨믵엲헍뗄늨뚯뻶뚨,웤탎쪽캪:1L=ꛋ21(y-y2n-k)+(ꛐ-ꛐ32)(2)2웤훐,ꛐ3쫇퇫탐뗄춨믵엲헍쒿뇪횵,쾵쫽ꛋ랴펳쇋퇫탐쿠뛔폚춨믵엲헍뛔닺돶뗄맘힢돌뛈ꆣ룃몯쫽뗄볙짨쫇:퇫탐쿫튪춬쪱컈뚨닺돶뫍춨믵엲헍,춨믵엲헍튪컈뚨퓚쒿뇪횵ꛐ3뢽뷼,닺돶튪컈뚨퓚yn+k훜캧(k>0),벴뇈뺭볃쳥뗄뻹뫢닺돶yn룟돶튻룶뎣쫽kꆣ뛔k뗄뷢쫍튻냣믹폚틔쿂샭평:평폚쫐뎡뗄늻췪쏀탔(샽죧샍뚯솦쫐뎡뗄얤쟺뫍슢뛏뗄듦퓚)쪹뗃뺭볃쳥뗄뻹뫢닺돶뒦폚킧싊뷏뗍뗄뗍쮮욽,틲듋샻폃믵뇒헾닟쪹닺돶컈뚨퓚yn+k훜캧뇣돉쇋튻훖듎폅뷢뻶랽램(ퟮ폅뷢뻶랽램펦캪쿻돽ퟮ돵뗄얤쟺);k튲듺뇭뛔퇫탐쪩볓뗄헾훎톹솦(헾뢮튻냣뚼뻟폐욫뫃뺭볃삩헅뗄쟣쿲)ꆣ캪볲뮯웰볻,컒쏇볙짨춨믵엲헍쒿뇪횵ꛐ3=0ꆣ퓚룸뚨뗄뺭볃뷡릹뫍쮽죋늿쏅풤웚쳵볾쿂,퇫탐춨맽짨뚨믵뇒릩룸퓶뎤싊(g)살쪵쿖웤쯹욫뫃뗄춨믵엲헍쮮욽,벴:ꛐ=g+v(3)웤훐,v쫇믵뇒쇷춨쯙뛈죅뚯쿮ꆣ릤죋쫜훆폚룹뻝쮽죋늿쏅맘폚믵뇒릩룸퓶뎤싊뫍춨믵엲헍뗄샭탔풤웚뛸훆뚨뗄릤뫏춬ꆣ퇫탐톡퓱쫇럱퓚쮽죋늿쏅뫏춬훆뚨잰릫늼쯼맘폚믵뇒쇷뚯쯙뛈죅뚯믲릩룸돥믷뗄풤닢ꆣ죧맻퇫탐헢퇹ퟶ,쓇쎴컒쏇붫죏캪믵뇒헾닟쫇춸쏷뗄ꆣ랴횮,믵뇒헾닟쫇늻춸쏷뗄ꆣ퓚퇫탐짨뚨믵뇒릩룸퓶뎤싊횮뫳,돥믷쪵쿖,뷸뛸뻹뫢뷡맻닺짺ꆣ뛔뺭볃뷡릹(1)풼쫸쿂뗄퇫탐쯰쪧몯쫽(2)ퟮ킡뮯듓뛸믱뗃퇫탐맘폚믵뇒릩룸퓶뎤싊뗄ퟮ폅짨뚨ꋙ:2aꛋkaꛋef,cbaꛋg=2-v-1+2aꛋ+1+aꛋg1+2aꛋꛅf,cb(4)웤훐,짏뇪f뫍cb듺뇭쇋훐퇫틸탐뗄풤닢,릫훚룹뻝E[ꛅt|ꚸt-1]=ꛅf,p뫍E[vt|ꚸ,pt-1]=fv탎돉ퟔ벺뗄샭탔풤웚ꆣ컒쏇볙짨헢솽룶돥믷뚼쫇럾듓럇쇣뻹횵뗄헽첬럖늼ꆣ쓇쎴,쮽죋늿쏅맘폚믵뇒릩룸퓶뎤싊뫍춨믵엲헍싊뗄풤웚틀듎럖뇰쫇:eg=aꛋf,pk-aꛋꛅf,p-v(5)ꛐe=aꛋk-aꛋꛅf,p(6)ꋙ퓚쟳뷢맽돌훐,볙짨퇫탐뛔폚쮽죋늿쏅맘폚믵뇒쇷춨쯙뛈죅뚯뗄풤닢캴횪,벴퇫탐뛔f,pv뗄웚췻캪쇣ꆣ57
헅ꆡ뫗뗈:믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈폫랴춨믵엲헍뻹뫢ힴ첬뗄믵뇒릩룸퓶뎤싊뫍춨믵엲헍싊틀듎럖뇰쫇:32aꛋbaꛋg=aꛋk--1+2aꛋꛅf,cbf,c-v1+2aꛋꛅf,p(7)ꛐaꛋ3aꛋ2=aꛋk-1+2aꛋꛅf,cb+f,cb(v-v)-1+2aꛋꛅf,p(8)(8)쪽뇭쏷,춨믵엲헍늻뷶틀삵폚틑쪵쿖뗄쯦믺돥믷,뛸쟒틀삵폚훐퇫틸탐뫍쮽죋늿쏅룷ퟔ뗄풤웚ꆣ룹뻝Geraats(2002),믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈횸뗄쫇헾닟훆뚨헟뫍쮽죋늿쏅횮볤탅쾢늻뛔돆뗄돌뛈ꆣ평폚탅쾢늻뛔돆뗄듦퓚,뛔폚퇫탐풤닢뫍쮽죋늿쏅풤닢횮볤뗄맘쾵,볙뚨쮽죋늿쏅풤닢냼삨솽늿럖:튻늿럖뛔펦퇫탐뗄풤닢,쇭튻늿럖쫇쮽죋늿쏅룹뻝쯹믱탅쾢뛔뺭볃퓋탐뗄잰햰탔뛀쳘풤닢(ꛎ),헢쳥쿖돶퇫탐뫍쮽죋늿쏅횮볤뗄탅쾢늻뛔돆:ꛅf,p=ꛈꛅf,cb+(1-ꛈ)ꛎ(9)쓇쎴,뻹뫢춨믵엲헍싊캪:32ꛐ=baꛋaꛋk+f,cbaꛋ(1+2aꛋꛈ)(v-v)--1+2aꛋꛅf,c1+2aꛋ(1-ꛈ)ꛎ(10)잱퓚춨믵엲헍욫닮캪:ꛐꛋ(1-ꛈ)-ꛐe=f,cba(v-v)+1+2aꛋ(ꛎ-ꛅf,cb)(11)룹뻝(11)뿉틔랢쿖,춨헍욫닮뿉쓜살ퟔ솽랽쏦:튻룶쫇퇫탐뛔믵뇒쇷춨쯙뛈죅뚯뗄늻췪쏀풤닢(v-f,cbv);쇭튻룶쫇퇫탐뛔릩룸돥믷뗄풤닢폫쮽죋늿쏅잰햰탔풤닢ꛎ횮볤뗄욫닮(ꛎ-ꛅf,cb)ꆣ뗚튻쿮랴펳쇋퇫탐잰햰탔럖컶뗄쓜솦ꆣ죧맻컒쏇볙짨퇫탐뻟폐췪쏀풤닢뗄쓜솦,쓇쎴뗚튻쿮붫톸쯙쟷폚쇣ꆣ뗚뛾쿮랴펳쇋쮽죋늿쏅폫퇫탐횮볤뗄탅쾢늻뛔돆탔ꆣ폈웤,죧맻믵뇒헾닟뻟폐췪좫뗄춸쏷뛈(ꛈ=1),쓇쎴춨헍욫닮붫뷶뷶살ퟔ퇫탐ퟔ짭뗄늻췪쏀풤닢f,cb(v-v)ꆣퟮ뫳,뾼싇퇫탐맘폚춨믵엲헍폫쒿뇪횵욫샫욽랽뗄웚췻(E[(ꛐ-ꛐ32)],캪볲뮯웰볻,ꛐ3=0)맘폚믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈(ꛈ)뗄튻뷗떼쫽(5E(ꛐ2)Π5ꛈ)ꆣ룹뻝(9)뿉뗃ꛒ2ꛅf,p=ꛒ2ꛅf,cb+(1-ꛈ2)(ꛅf,cb-ꛎ2)(12)짏쪽뇭쏷ꛒ2ꛅf,pꇝꛒ2ꛅf,cb,쮽죋늿쏅풤닢랽닮듳폚퇫탐풤닢랽닮,퇫탐뗄풤닢룼볓뺫좷,헢틢캶ퟅ듓풤닢늨뚯탔뗄뷇뛈,퇫탐쿠뛔폚쮽죋늿쏅뻟폐탅쾢폅쫆ꆣ헽죧Peeketal.(2003)뫍Romer&Romer(2000)뗄퇐뺿뇭쏷,쿠뛔폚쮽죋늿쏅뛸퇔,퇫탐뻟폐쒳훖탅쾢폅쫆ꆣ떱5E(ꛐ2)Π5ꛈ<0쪱,믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈풽룟,춨믵엲헍늨뚯뻍풽킡ꆣ쟳뷢5E(ꛐ2)Π5ꛈ<0,듸죫떽(12),뗃떽:ꛒ2ꛅf,p-ꛒ222ꛅf,cb<(1-ꛈ)(ꛎ-k),(13)헢뇭쏷,떱쮽죋늿쏅뗄풤닢랽닮폫퇫탐뗄풤닢랽닮횮닮늻뎬맽(1-ꛈ2)(ꛎ2-k)쪱,춨믵엲헍뗄늨뚯탔쯦ퟅ믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뗄쳡룟뛸붵뗍ꆣ뛔듋,컒쏇뿉틔샭뷢캪,믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈풽룟,쮽죋늿쏅듓퇫탐믱뗃뗄탅쾢뻍풽뛠,뷸뛸쯼쏇뗄풤닢랽닮뻍풽킡,풤닢튲뻍풽뺫좷,듓뛸폐샻폚쿻돽평폚탅쾢늻뛔돆쯹떼훂뗄춨믵엲헍늨뚯ꆣ좻뛸,룹뻝샭탔풤웚샭싛,횻폐훆퓬틢쇏횮췢뗄헾닟뇤뚯,닅쓜쳡룟헾닟폐킧탔ꆣ헢틢캶ퟅ횻폐붵뗍믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈,퓶잿훐퇫틸탐뫍쮽죋늿쏅횮볤뗄탅쾢늻뛔돆,닅쓜쳡룟믵뇒헾닟뗄폐킧탔ꆣ헢쯆뫵폫퓶잿믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈폐샻폚쳡룟헾닟폐킧탔뗄뷡싛쿠쎬뛜ꆣ횵뗃힢틢뗄쫇,샭탔풤웚샭싛뗄잱퓚볙짨횮튻쫇쮽죋늿쏅뛔뺭볃퓋탐뻟폐췪좫뗄죏횪,쓜릻탎돉폫뺭볃쾵춳쿠튻훂뗄ꆢ컞욫뗄맀볆ꆣ헢뻍틢캶ퟅ믵뇒헾닟뻟폐럇뎣룟뗄춸쏷뛈,떫쫇헢퓚쪵볹훐늢늻췪좫돉솢,훷튪뇭쿖퓚쮽죋늿쏅뛔뺭볃퓋탐뷡맻뗄늻췪좫죏횪뫍뛔뺭볃퓋탐맽돌뗄늻췪좫죏횪(탬퇇욽,2006),뛸뛔믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뗄퇐뺿헽쫇믹폚뛔짏쫶볙짨뗄훊틉늢룹뻝쿖쪵뺭볃쟩뿶뛸닺짺뗄ꆣ틲듋,짏쫶믱뗃뗄뷡싛틢캶ퟅ뷏룟뗄춸쏷뛈뿉틔헽좷틽떼릫훚풤웚,쪹뗃쮽죋늿쏅뗄풤58
2009쓪뗚7웚닢룼ힼ좷,듓뛸복짙뺭볃퓋탐뗄늻좷뚨탔,냼삨붵뗍춨믵엲헍늨뚯ꆣ죽ꆢ뺭퇩퇐뺿(튻)춸쏷뛈뗄뛈솿쒿잰,맺췢뛔믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뗄뫢솿튻냣쫇춨맽붨솢튻쾵쇐횸뇪쳥쾵,룹뻝훐퇫틸탐뗄쪵볊닙ퟷ뷸탐움럖볓ퟜ뫳뗃떽튻룶뻟쳥쫽횵살뇭쪾믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈ꆣ룷훖솿뮯랽램뗄늻춬횮뒦훷튪퓚폚횸뇪쳥쾵훐횸뇪뗄톡좡뫍뢳횵랽램뗄닮틬ꆣ11횸뇪뗄붨솢컒맺믵뇒헾닟춸쏷훆뛈뗄붨솢죔뒦퓚돵벶뷗뛎,쯹틔퓚닎뾼컷랽맺볒럖샠횸뇪뗄춬쪱,튲펦뾼싇떽컒맺뗄쪵볊쟩뿶ꆣ믹폚Eijffinger뫍Geraats(2002)벰탬퇇욽(2006),컒쏇붫듓쯄룶랽쏦뛈솿컒맺믵뇒헾닟뗄춸쏷뛈:쒿뇪춸쏷뛈ꆢ탅쾢춸쏷뛈ꆢ풤닢춸쏷뛈뫍릵춨닟싔ꆣ좻뫳뛔헢쯄룶랽쏦뷸탐쾸럖,쎿튻룶ퟓ쿮뗄좨훘쿠춬,늢쟒싺럖뻹캪1(뛔쎿룶컊쳢췪좫뿏뚨뗃1럖ꆢ췪좫럱뚨캪0럖,웤쯻쟩뿶캪015럖)ꆣퟮ뫳뛔헢쯄쿮횸쫽뷸탐볓ퟜ뗃떽튻룶ퟜ쫽횵,웤ퟮ듳횵캪8ꆣ뇭1쏨쫶쇋훐퇫틸탐믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뗄횸뇪쳥쾵ꆣ뇭1믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뗄횸뇪쳥쾵쿮쒿ퟓ쿮쒿11쫇럱폐믵뇒헾닟쒿뇪뗄헽쪽쮵쏷,늢쟒퓚돶쿖뛠훘쒿뇪쪱,폐컞쏷좷뗄폅쿈쒿뇪컞쏷좷쒿뇪=0뛠훘쒿뇪떫컞쏷좷뗄쿈뫳듎탲=015쒿뇪춸쏷뛈떥튻쒿뇪,믲뛠훘쒿뇪떫폐쏷좷뗄쿈뫳듎탲=121훷튪쒿뇪쫇럱뿉틔솿뮯럱=0쫇=111쫇럱엻슶폫횴탐믵뇒헾닟쿠맘뗄믹놾뺭볃탅쾢쫽뻝(훷튪냼삨:믵뇒릩펦솿ꆢ춨믵엲헍ꆢGDPꆢ쪧튵싊틔벰짺닺솦샻폃싊)릫늼쫽뻝늻뎬맽솽룶=0탅쾢춸쏷뛈릫늼쫽뻝늻뎬맽죽룶=015좫늿릫늼=121쫇럱뛔췢엻슶웤폃폚헾닟럖컶뗄헽쪽뗄뫪맛뺭볃쒣탍럱=0쫇=111풤닢뗄탎쪽:쫇럱뛔춨믵엲헍ꆢ닺돶쮮욽뺭볃뇤솿ퟷ뻟쳥뗄쫽솿풤닢컞풤닢=0짙솿컄ퟖ뫍쫽ퟖ쮵쏷=015풤닢춸쏷뛈쏷좷뗄풤닢=121쳡릩풤닢놨룦뗄욵싊벸쓪1듎믲늻릫늼=0쎿쓪1듎=015쎿쓪2듎벰틔짏=111훐퇫틸탐쫇럱릫늼쿪쾸뗄믵뇒헾닟럖컶놨룦(늻뎬맽죽룶퓂)럱=0릵춨닟싔ꆡ쫇=121훐퇫틸탐쫇럱릫뾪믵뇒헾닟뻶닟쫇죧뫎탎돉뗄늻릫뾪믵뇒헾닟캯풱믡뗄믡틩볍튪=0릫뾪믵뇒헾닟캯풱믡뗄믡틩볍튪=159
헅ꆡ뫗뗈:믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈폫랴춨믵엲헍ꆡꆡ21횸쫽뗄볆쯣컒맺퇫탐ퟔ1984쓪웰헽쪽싄탐훐퇫틸탐횰쓜,떫쫇헦헽쏷좷믵뇒헾닟쒿뇪ꆢ쪵쪩믵뇒헾닟뾪쪼폚1995쓪ꆣ쯹틔컒쏇뛔컒맺믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈횸쫽뗄볆쯣훷튪ퟅ훘폚1995ꆪ2008쓪헢튻뷗뛎ꆣ(1)쒿뇪춸쏷뛈:1995쓪ꆶ훐맺죋쏱틸탐램ꆷ맦뚨ꆰ컒맺믵뇒헾닟뗄쫗튪쒿뇪쫇컈뚨뇒횵,늢틔듋듙뷸뺭볃퓶뎤ꆱꆣ듓1996쓪뾪쪼헽쪽좷뚨믵뇒헾닟훐뷩쒿뇪쫇믵뇒릩펦솿ꆣ듋뫳뗄뛠쓪쓚,쯤좻퇫탐늻뛏뗷헻믵뇒헾닟,믲뷴쯵(죧1993ꆪ1997쓪,2003ꆪ2007쓪)믲컈붡(1998ꆪ2002쓪)믲뿭쯉(2008쓪뾪쪼),틔쫊펦뺭볃랢햹뗄탨튪,떫쫇쪼훕냑컈뚨뇒횵ꆢ뿘훆춨믵엲헍ퟷ캪쫗튪쒿뇪(1럖)ꆣ떫쫇퇫탐쪼훕뚼쎻폐뛔뇒횵컈뚨믲춨믵엲헍싊뷸탐솿뮯(0럖),틲듋컒맺뗄쒿뇪춸쏷뛈뗃럖캪1ꆣ(2)탅쾢춸쏷뛈:뺭볃뫍뷰죚쫽뻝릫늼쫇믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뇘늻뿉짙뗄튻뮷,IMF쳘뇰잿뗷튪죃릫훚폫헾뢮튻퇹벰쪱헆컕쿠춬뗄탅쾢풴ꆣ1996쓪훐맺죋쏱틸탐뾪쪼내벾뛈쿲짧믡릫늼룷닣듎믵뇒릩펦솿ꆢ춨헍쮮욽뫍GDP쮮욽,내쓪뛈릫늼쪧튵싊쮮욽(015럖)ꆣ춬쪱,퇫탐뾪쪼붫믵뇒릩펦솿ퟷ캪믵뇒헾닟뗄훐뷩쒿뇪,헢퇹뻍쪹뗃짧믡룷뷧뿉틔룹뻝믹뒡믵뇒럖컶살풤닢캴살퇫탐쯹뷸탐뗄믵뇒헾닟닙ퟷ(믵뇒뺻춶럅Π믘쇽쫽솿,냼삨믘릺ꆢ퇫욱랢탐ꆢ램뚨ힼ놸뷰뗷헻뗈)ꆣ쇭췢,쯦ퟅ볆솿뺭볃쒣탍뗄랢햹,풽살풽뛠뗄맺볒붫뺭볃쒣탍퓋폃떽쪵볊뺭볃퓋탐떱훐,샽죧볓쓃듳ꆢ펢맺뗈ꆣ헢킩맺볒릫늼쯹쪹폃뗄쒣탍틔벰퓋폃쒣탍뷸탐풤닢뗄뷡맻,늢붫뗷헻쒣탍뫍풤닢뷡맻뗄랽램뷩짜룸릫훚ꆣ쯤좻컒맺퇫탐ퟔ2001쓪뗚2벾뛈뾪쪼쪹폃벾뛈볆솿뺭볃쒣탍,떫늢쎻폐쿲릫훚릫늼쒣탍뗄럖컶뷡맻,틲듋퓚탅쾢춸쏷뛈짏컒맺뗄럖횵캪015ꆣ(3)풤닢춸쏷뛈:룷맺믵뇒헾닟뗄쪵볹쿔쪾,뛔뺭볃랢햹뗄풤닢퓚믵뇒헾닟뻶닟훐헽랢믓ퟅ풽살풽훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ죧튻킩맺볒퇫탐뚨웚돶냦ꆶ춨믵엲헍놨룦ꆷ,뷢쫍훐퇫틸탐춨믵엲헍뿘훆쒿뇪,풤닢캴살춨믵엲헍쟷쫆,쳖싛풤닢듦퓚뗄럧쿕,뷢쫍뿘훆쒿뇪폫쪵볊쫽뻝듦퓚욫닮뗄풭틲틔벰캪뻀헽헢훖욫닮쯹탨튪닉좡뗄탐뚯ꆣ쿱쏀맺퓚쎿듎뗄솪뒢릫뾪쫐뎡캯풱믡(FOMC)뗄믡틩짏뚼믡릫늼캴살춨헍ꆢ닺돶벰웤쯻쿠맘뺭볃뇤솿뗄풤닢쫽뻝ꆣ컒맺퇫탐퓚쎿룶벾뛈릫늼뗄ꆶ믵뇒헾닟럖컶놨룦ꆷ훐믡뛔캴살튻뛎쪱볤쓚뗄뫪맛뺭볃뫍믵뇒헾닟쟷쫆뷸탐햹췻,쇭췢퇫탐뗄뢺퓰죋뮹믡뻍믵뇒헾닟ꆢ뺭볃ힴ뿶뗈랢뇭퇝쮵,틔뇭쏷훐퇫틸탐뛔뺭볃뗄뾴램,쮵쏷늢뷢쫍퇫탐쯹닉좡뗄헾닟벰듫쪩뗈(015럖)ꆣ뺡맜죧듋,컒쏇맺볒뮹쫇뫜짙릫늼훮죧춨믵엲헍싊ꆢ닺돶쮮욽뗈뺭볃뇤솿뗄풤닢뷡맻,룼컞쏷좷뗄쫽솿풤닢(0럖),틲듋컒맺뗄풤닢춸쏷뛈훆뛈캪015럖ꆣ(4)릵춨닟싔:릵춨퓚믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뗄쳥쿖짏웰ퟅ풽살풽훘튪뗄ퟷ폃ꆣHaanetal.(2007)횸돶,퇫탐뗄릵춨닟싔믡펰쿬떽릫훚뛔캴살뗄풤웚,춬쪱뛔뷰죚쫐뎡뗄늻좷뚨탔튲폐튻뚨뗄펰쿬,틲듋볓잿퇫탐뗄릵춨닟싔,쳡룟릫훚뛔쿖퓚뫍캴살헾닟뗄샭뷢솦,믡횱뷓쳡룟믵뇒헾닟뗄폐킧탔ꆣ훐맺죋쏱틸탐듓2001쓪뗚튻벾뛈웰쎿벾뛈퓚훐맺죋쏱틸탐췸햾짏쿲짧믡릫늼ꆶ믵뇒헾닟럖컶놨룦ꆷ,쎿듎뗄놨룦뚼믡엻슶훮죧뫪맛뺭볃퓋탐ꆢ믵뇒헾닟닙ퟷꆢ뷰죚쫐뎡럖컶ꆢ믵뇒헾닟쟷쫆뗈훘튪탅쾢,틑돉캪릫훚럖컶뫍풤닢믵뇒헾닟뗄훘튪틀뻝(1럖)ꆣ쇭췢듓1999쓪6퓂뾪쪼훐퇫틸탐쎿벾뛈헙뾪믵뇒헾닟캯풱믡믡틩,늢퓚믡뫳쿲췢릫늼믡틩뻶틩ꆣ떫쫇퓚믵뇒헾닟뻶닟탎돉뗄뮷뷚랽쏦,좴쎻폐뛔췢릫뾪믡틩볍튪뫍춶욱쟩뿶,듓뛸컞램쳡릩탎돉믵뇒헾닟뻶닟폫횴탐쟩뿶뗄쿠맘럖컶(0럖),틲듋컒맺릵춨닟싔뗄춸쏷뛈캪1럖ꆣ룹뻝짏쏦뗄럖컶,뿉틔뾴떽컒맺믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뗄ퟜ횸쫽캪3,헢틢캶ퟅ컒맺믵뇒헾닟틑뺭뻟놸쇋튻뚨뗄춸쏷뛈ꆣ춬쪱,폫싺럖ퟜ횸쫽8쿠뇈,컒맺퓚쳡룟믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈랽쏦뮹폐뫜듳뗄짏짽뿕볤ꆣ쯦ퟅ컒맺쫐뎡뺭볃뗄랢햹틔벰믵뇒헾닟쳥훆뗄훰늽췪짆,헽죧탬퇇욽(2006)뗄퇐뺿뇭쏷,컒맺믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈붫볌탸퓶볓,틽떼릫훚탎돉뫏샭뗄풤웚,듙뷸믵뇒헾닟뗄폐킧쪵쪩ꆣ(뛾)랴춨헍돉놾뗄뛈솿60
2009쓪뗚7웚11뛈솿랽램내헕뺭뗤샭싛,랴춨믵엲헍돉놾춨뎣랴펳쇋튻맺짧믡뢣샻뗄쯰쪧,ퟮ뎣폃뗄뛈솿횸뇪쫇컾짼싊,벴쎿복짙1%뗄춨믵엲헍,닺돶좱뿚믲뻍튵싊쯰쪧뗄냙럖뇈ꆣ뛈솿컾짼싊뗄랽램춨뎣폐솽훖:튻훖쫇Ball(1994)쳡돶뗄랽램,쫗쿈에뛏튻룶맺볒랴춨믵엲헍뗄쪱웚,좻뫳볆쯣랴춨헍쪱웚쓚폫춨헍싊뇤뮯쿠솪쾵뗄닺돶좱뿚믲쪧튵싊뗄뇤뮯;쇭췢튻훖랽램쫇Hutchinson뫍Walsh(1998)쳡돶뗄,듓튻룶뛌웚럆샻웕쮹쟺쿟뗄쪱볤탲쇐맀볆훐뗃떽튻룶맺볒뗄컾짼싊,떫룃랽램뗄좱뗣쫇늻맘힢뛀솢룶뇰뗄랴춨믵엲헍쫂볾ꆣ헢샯컒쏇닉폃Andersen뫍Wascher(1999)뛔Ball(1994)볓틔룄뷸뗄랽램ꆣ떱튻룶맺볒뗄춨헍싊뇈잰튻쓪뗍쪱,좷뚨캪랴춨헍웚뗄뾪쪼,늢쟒폃샠쯆뗄랽쪽에뇰랴춨헍웚뗄뷡쫸ꆣꆰ컾짼싊ꆱ뻍쫇랴춨헍웚쓚닺돶좱뿚(폃HP싋늨볆쯣)뗄샛믽뇤뮯돽틔춨헍싊뗄뇤뮯ꆣꋙ21쫽뻝평폚컒맺GDP뗄춳볆쫽뻝횻폐1992쓪틔뫳뗄벾뛈쫽뻝,틲듋컒쏇붫쪹폃1992쓪튻벾뛈훁2007쓪쯄벾뛈뗄벾뛈쫽뻝ꆣ샻폃뻓쏱쿻럑볛룱춬뇈횸쫽(CPI)퓶뎤싊살뫢솿춨믵엲헍싊ꆣ컒쏇뿉틔횱뷓믱뗃CPI퓂뛈쫽뻝,붫쎿룶벾뛈쓚뗄퓂뛈CPI쫽뻝좡욽뻹횵뫳ퟷ캪CPI벾뛈쫽뻝,퇹놾웚튲쫇듓1992쓪튻벾뛈훁2007쓪쯄벾뛈ꆣGDP벾뛈쫽뻝뫍CPI퓂뛈쫽뻝뻹살풴폚훐맺뺭볃탅쾢췸(http:ΠΠ)ꆣ31뷡맻컒쏇닉폃Anderson뫍Wascher(1999)뗄랽램살볆쯣컒맺뗄랴춨헍쪱웚,뷡맻죧춼1쯹쪾ꆣ춼1뇭쏷,랴춨헍웚쓚뗄춨헍싊믹놾돊쿖돶돖탸쿂탐뗄쳘뗣,벴퓚룸뚨뗄퇹놾웚쓚,컒맺듦퓚죽룶랴춨헍쪱웚ꆣ뛸쟒,쿠뛔폚2000쓪횮뫳컒맺뺭샺뗄솽듎뷏캪컂뫍뗄춨믵엲헍,90쓪듺훐웚뗄룟춨헍뇈뷏쏷쿔,랴춨헍웚튲뷏뎤ꆣ듋췢,ퟔ2007쓪돵틔살,춨헍싊돊쿖돶뇈뷏쏷쿔뗄짏탐쟷쫆,헢낵쪾쇋죧맻캴살춨헍싊돶쿖쿂탐쟷쫆,쓇쎴헢룶쿂탐뷗뛎뫜뿉쓜돉캪쿂튻룶랴춨헍쪱웚ꆣ쿂쏦볆쯣컒맺뗄닺돶좱뿚ꆣ닺돶좱뿚쫇횸쪵볊닺돶폫잱퓚닺돶횮볤뗄좱뿚,뇈뷏뎣폃뗄랽램쫇붫쪵볊닺돶럖뷢캪솽늿럖:튻늿럖쫇틔쿟탔쟷쫆뇭쪾뗄잱퓚닺돶,쇭튻늿럖쫇캧죆듋쟷쫆늨뚯뗄닺돶좱뿚ꆣ쫗쿈,컒쏇샻폃X-11벾뷚뗷헻랽램뛔쏻틥GDP뷸탐벾뷚뗷헻뗃떽벾뷚뗷헻뫳뗄쏻틥GDP,좻뫳볆쯣돶벾뷚뗷헻뫳뗄쪵볊GDP=벾뷚뗷헻뫳뗄쏻틥GDPꇁ100Π춬뇈CPIꆣꋚ뷓쿂살,뛔벾춼1ꆡ랴춨헍웚폫럇랴춨헍웚쓚뗄춨헍싊뷚뗷헻뫳뗄쪵볊GDP샻폃HP싋늨랽램뗃떽잱퓚GDP,ퟮ뫳볆쯣닺돶좱뿚=(벾뷚뗷헻뫳뗄쪵볊GDP-잱퓚GDP)ꇁ100ꆣ룹뻝짏쫶볆쯣뷡맻,컒쏇내헕쪱볤쿈뫳쮳탲럖뇰볆쯣돶컒맺죽룶랴춨헍웚쓚룷ퟔ뗄컾짼싊(룷룶랴춨헍쪱웚쓚닺돶좱뿚뗄샛믽뇤뮯돽틔춨헍싊뗄샛볆뇤뮯)캪813ꆢ316뫍412ꆣ뷡맻뇭쏷,퓚컒맺믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뾪쪼쳡룟뗄돵웚,랴춨헍웚쓚뗄컾짼싊(813)쏷쿔뗘룟폚춸쏷뛈훰늽쳡룟뫳뗄랴춨헍웚쓚뗄컾짼싊(럖뇰캪316뫍412)ꆣ헢뻍낵쪾쇋,20쫀볍90쓪듺뫳웚틔살,컒맺컾짼싊뷏뗍뫜ꋙ튲뿉틔폃쪧튵싊뗄샛볆뇤뮯살듺쳦닺돶좱뿚ꆣ평폚컒맺뗄쪧튵싊춳볆쫽뻝횻폐쓪뛈쫽뻝,늢쟒튻냣죏캪,컒맺뗄돇헲뗇볇쪧튵싊늻쓜뫜뫃뗘랴펳컒맺뗄쪵볊뻍튵쟩뿶ꆣ틲듋ퟛ뫏뾼싇,컒쏇닉폃닺돶좱뿚뗄샛볆뇤뮯살뛈솿컾짼싊ꆣꋚ볆쯣벾뷚뗷헻뫳뗄쪵볊GDP쪱,튻킩컄쿗뮹닉폃GDP쯵복횸쫽뷸탐뮻쯣(샽죧탬잿,2006)ꆣ놾컄닉폃듳뛠쫽컄쿗맘폚쪵볊GDP뗄볆쯣랽램ꆣ61
헅ꆡ뫗뗈:믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈폫랴춨믵엲헍뿉쓜쫇믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈훰늽쳡룟뗄뷡맻ꆣ탬퇇욽(2006)뛔1995ꆪ2005쓪컒맺믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈폫믵뇒헾닟폐킧탔뷸탐뺭퇩퇐뺿뫳죏캪,1995쓪틔뫳컒맺뫪맛뺭볃퓋탐ힴ뿶룄짆(룟퓶뎤뗍춨헍)뗄튻룶훘튪풭틲쫇믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뗄쳡룟ꆣ평폚믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뗄늻뛏쳡룟,뷏뫃뗘틽떼쇋쫐뎡뗄풤웚,퓶잿쇋룷랽쏦뛔믵뇒헾닟뗄샭뷢뫍횧돖,쪹뗃믵뇒헾닟뗄뒫떼쟾뗀뇤뗃룼볓춨뎩ꆣ2007쓪틔살,캪쇋틖훆맺쓚쇷뚯탔맽쪣뫍뮺뷢춨헍튻슷짏탐뗄톹솦,컒맺퇫탐퓚탂튻싖뗄뫪맛뗷뿘훐,늻뛏춨맽췸햾릫룦뫍랢늼믵뇒헾닟횴탐놨룦뗈듫쪩,틽떼쫐뎡풤웚,랢믓헾닟뗷뿘뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ뛸캪쇋펦뛔쒿잰뗄맺볊뷰죚캣믺,컒맺헾뢮맻뛏뗘돶첨쇋튻쾵쇐냼삨믵뇒헾닟퓚쓚뗄믽벫헾닟,춨맽룷훖쟾뗀폫웳튵뫍릫훚뷸탐폐맘헾닟탅쾢뗄릵춨,쳡헱쫐뎡탅탄,듙뷸뺭볃퓶뎤ꆣ쯤좻,폫믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뷏룟뛸컾짼싊뷏뗍뗄맺볒쿠뇈ꋙ,컒맺뗄컾짼싊죔좻뷏룟ꆣ떫쫇,쯦ퟅ컒맺믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뗄뷸튻늽쳡룟,캴살컒맺뗄컾짼싊튲뿉쓜훰늽뇤킡ꆣ떱좻,믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뗄쳡룟늢늻튻뚨듙쪹춨믵엲헍붵뗍,돽믵뇒헾닟횮췢뗄웤쯻헾닟뫍뺭볃돥믷튲뿉쓜뛔춨믵엲헍닺짺훘튪뗄펰쿬ꆣ샽죧,2008쓪컒맺춨믵엲헍뗄쿂붵늻뷶쫇헾뢮퓶볓폐킧릩룸ꆢ틖훆늻뫏샭탨쟳뫍볓잿쫐뎡맜샭뗄ퟷ폃,뛸쟒뮹쫇맺볊쪯폍뗈듳ퟚ짌욷볛룱뗄쿂뗸떼훂컒맺춨헍톹솦복킡뗄뷡맻ꆣퟜ횮,퓚헾닟쪵볹훐,폐킧뷢뻶춨믵엲헍늻뷶탨튪헾뢮퓚뾼싇룷훖췢퓚돥믷뗄펰쿬쿂닉좡폐킧뗄믵뇒헾닟,뛸쟒탨튪돶첨튻쾵쇐뇘튪뗄쿠맘헾닟볓틔ퟛ뫏훎샭ꆣ쯄ꆢ뷡ꆡ싛놾컄쫗쿈퓚튻냣뿲볜쿂뾼달쇋춨믵엲헍뗄뻶뚨틲쯘,랢쿖춨믵엲헍틀삵훐퇫틸탐뫍쮽죋늿쏅룷ퟔ뛔뺭볃돥믷뗄풤닢ꆣ떱퇫탐뫍쮽죋늿쏅횮볤듦퓚탅쾢늻뛔돆쪱,쳡룟믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈늻뷶폐샻폚복킡춨믵엲헍욫닮,뛸쟒믡붵뗍춨믵엲헍늨뚯ꆣ좻뫳,닉폃컾짼싊뛈솿랴춨헍돉놾뛔컒맺믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈폫랴춨헍횮볤뗄맘쾵뷸탐쇋뺭퇩퇐뺿ꆣ뷡맻뇭쏷,퓚컒맺믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뾪쪼쳡룟뗄돵웚,랴춨헍웚쓚뗄컾짼싊쏷쿔뗘룟폚춸쏷뛈쳡룟뫳랴춨헍웚쓚뗄컾짼싊ꆣ헢캪튻냣뷰죚샭싛쳡릩쇋살ퟔ훐맺뗄뺭퇩횤뻝,춬쪱튲틢캶ퟅ,컒맺20쫀볍90쓪듺뫳웚틔살뗍컾짼싊뗄튻룶훘튪풭틲쫇믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈훰늽쳡룟뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ떱좻,폫믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뷏룟뛸컾짼싊뷏뗍뗄맺볒쿠뇈,컒맺뗄컾짼싊죔좻뷏룟,폐뷸튻늽쿂붵뗄뿕볤ꆣ믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈늻뷶뻟폐뷏룟뗄샭싛볛횵,뛸쟒퓚쪵볹훐튲풽쿔훘튪ꆣ훐맺죋쏱틸탐탐뎤훜킡뒨퓚컒맺뗚쪮뷬좫맺죋듳뗚컥듎믡틩짏횸돶,쯦ퟅ짧믡훷틥쫐뎡뺭볃뗄붨솢뫍돉쫬,믵뇒헾닟펦룃룼춸쏷ꆢ룼뿉풤웚,폫짧믡릫훚벰튵뷧폐룼뫃뗄릵춨,헢쫇튻룶듳쟷쫆ꆣ뛔폚쓇킩쪵탐춨헍쒿뇪훆뗄맺볒,웤믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈튻냣뇭쿖캪훐퇫틸탐랢늼춨믵엲헍놨룦,웤훐짦벰뛔춨헍잰뺰뗄쳖싛뫍럖컶틔벰릫늼춨헍풤닢ꆣ틲듋,죧맻컒맺퇫탐ힼ놸닉폃춨헍쒿뇪훆뗄믵뇒헾닟쳥쾵,쓇쎴붫살뫜뿉쓜믡췆돶컒맺뗄ꆶ춨믵엲헍놨룦ꆷꆣ돽쇋믵뇒헾닟뻟폐뷏룟뗄춸쏷뛈틔췢,쓇킩쪵탐춨헍쒿뇪훆뗄맺볒춨뎣뻟놸뷏췪짆뗄컊퓰믺훆ꆣ룼훘튪뗄쫇,헢훖컊퓰믺훆튻냣쯦ퟅ훐퇫틸탐뛀솢탔뗄퓶잿뛸볓잿(룟볻,2006)ꆣꋚGeraats(2002)죏캪,뛔폚뛀솢돌뛈늻춬뗄훐퇫틸탐,쳡룟춸쏷뛈뗄ퟷ폃폐뿉쓜췪좫늻춬ꆣ뛔폚뛀솢탔뷏닮뗄훐퇫틸탐,쳡룟춸쏷뛈믡평폚헾훎룉풤뛸닺짺뷏닮뗄킧맻ꆣCukierman(1993)뗄퇐뺿뇭쏷,릤튵뮯맺볒뗄퇫탐뛀솢탔폫춨믵엲헍뢺쿠맘,뛸랢햹훐맺볒뗄퇫탐뛀솢탔폫춨믵엲헍늻쿠맘ꆣ풭틲뿉ꋙStasavage(2003)뗄퇐뺿뷡맻뇭쏷,믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈뷏룟뗄맺볒얲췾ꆢ펢맺ꆢ볓쓃듳ꆢ죰뗤뫍낮뛻삼뗄컾짼싊뚼뇈뷏뗍,럖뇰캪-210ꆢ-119ꆢ-015ꆢ016뫍-113ꆣꋚ훐퇫틸탐뛀솢탔튻냣쫇횸튻맺훐퇫틸탐퓚훆뚨뫍횴탐놾맺믵뇒헾닟쪱뻟폐뗄뛀솢ퟔ훷좨,뿉틔럖캪쒿뇪뛀솢탔뫍릤뻟뛀솢탔,놾컄횸뗄쫇릤뻟뛀솢탔ꆣ62
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헅ꆡ뫗뗈:믵뇒헾닟춸쏷뛈폫랴춨믵엲헍HaanJ.,.,andRybinskiK.,2007,ꆰCentralBankTransparencyandCentralBankCommunication:EditorialIntroductionꆱ,EuropeanJournalofPoliticalEconomy,23,1ꆪ.,andWalshC.,1998,ꆰTheOutputInflationTrade2offandCentralBankReform:EvidencefromNewZealandꆱ,EconomicJournal,108,703ꆪ.,2002,ꆰOptimalDegreesofTransparencyinMonetaryPolicyMakingꆱ,ScandinavianJournalofEconomics,3,399ꆪ.,.,1977,ꆰRulesRatherthanDiscretion:TheInconsistencyofOptimalPlansꆱ,JournalofPoliticalEconomy,85,473ꆪ.,2004,ꆰCanInflationTargetingWorkinEmergingMarketCountriesꆱ,.,.,.,2003,ꆰDoestheFederalReservePossessanExploitableInformationalAdvantageꆱ,JournalofMonetaryEconomics,50,817ꆪ.,1993,ꆰWhyCentralBankIndependenceDoesnotCauseLowInflation:ThereIsNoInstitutionalFixforPoliticsꆱ,FinanceandtheInternationalEconomy,7,40ꆪ.,.,2000,ꆰFederalReserveInformationandtheBehaviorofInterestRateꆱ,AmericanEconomicReview,9,429ꆪ.,2003,ꆰTransparency,DemocraticAccountabilityandtheEconomicConsequenceofMonetaryInstitutionsꆱ,AmericanJournalofPoliticalScience,47,389ꆪ.,2000,ꆰOpen2economyInflationTargetingꆱ,JournalofInternationalEconomics,50,155ꆪ:AnEmpiricalEvidencefromChinaZbbbhangHae,ZhangDaiqiang,YaoYuanandZhangPeng(a:FinanceSchool,RenminUniversityofChina;b:BusinessSchoolofJilinUniversity)Abstract:Basedonageneraltheoreticalframework,thispaperfirstconsidersthedeterministicfactorsofinflation,,wefindthattheimprovementofmonetarypolicytransparencywillnotonlydecreasetheinflationbias,,theempiricalresultshowsthatthesacrificeratiointhefirstperiodofimprovingtransparencyduringdisinflationepisodesissignificantlyhigherthanthatoftransparencyimproved,:MonetaryPolicyTransparency;Disinflation;SacrificeRatioJELClassification:E42,E52,E58(퓰죎뇠벭:돉ꆡ퇔)(킣뛔:ퟓꆡ)64
