뷌폽폫뺭볃2004쓪뗚4웚릫릲뷌폽횧돶뗄뺭볃볛횵듞폱욽(쯕훝듳톧ꆡ뷌폽톧풺,붭쯕ꆡ쯕훝ꆡ215021)ꆡꆡ햪ꆡ튪:뷨본쏀맺톧헟Aschauer(1993)뗄쯣램,뛔훐맺릫릲뷌폽춶뗄짧믡뺭볃쫕틦뷸탐쪵횤럖컶ꆣ뷡맻쿔쪾,1992-2001쓪볤훐맺릫릲뷌폽놾듦솿뗄닺돶떯탔캪,뛸릫릲뷌폽춶뗄쓪욽뻹짧믡뇟볊쫕틦싊캪%ꆣ뇭쏷뷼쓪살컒맺릫릲뷌폽춶폫컯훊놾춶튻퇹,뻟폐듳훂쟷춬뗄뇟볊쫕틦싊,쎻폐횤뻝쿔쪾컒맺듦퓚릫릲뷌폽춶퇏훘늻ퟣ뗄컊쳢ꆣ맘볼듊:릫릲뷌폽춶;릫릲뷌폽놾뗄닺돶떯탔;욽뻹짧믡뇟볊쫕틦싊훐춼럖샠뫅:F08;G40-054ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:A컄헂뇠뫅:1003-4870(2004)04-0034-04OntheEconomicValueofPublicEducationalExpendituresCUIꆡYu2ping(GraduateSchoolofEducation,SuzhouUniversity,Suzhou215021,China)Abstract:ConsistentwiththecalculationmethodologyinAschauer(1993),,,whilequantitativelyslightlylowerthanthereturntophysicalcapital,,:publiceducationalinvestment;outputelasticitywithrespecttopubliceducationalcapital;averagesocialmarginalrateofreturntopubliceducationꆡꆡ뛔폚쫐뎡뺭볃짧믡,훷헅뺭볃ퟔ평훷틥뗄뺭볃톧볒폐헢퇹뗄싛뛏:뺭볃훐헾뢮횧돶뗄ퟜ쳥쮮욽뛔짺닺싊뫍뺭볃퓶뎤폐뢺쏦펰쿬,엓듳뗄헾뢮뾪횧뛔뺭볃랢햹폐ퟨ훍ퟷ폃ꆣ좻뛸,헢훖싛뛏퓚냑헾뢮횧돶폫뺭볃늿쏅뗄닺돶벨킧삦냳웰살쮼뾼컊쳢뗄춬쪱,늢쎻폐냑릫릲쿻럑폫릫릲춶(죧릫릲뷌폽춶)쟸뇰뾪살ꆣ헾뢮폃폚릫릲뷌폽쫂튵랽쏦뗄뺭럑횧돶쫇뒿쿻럑탔횧돶,뮹쫇쓜릻뒴퓬뺭볃볛횵뗄짺닺탔횧돶?헢탨튪퓋폃쪵횤럖컶뷡맻룸폨쮵쏷ꆣ튻ꆢ릫릲뷌폽횧돶뿉럱믱뗃짧믡뺭볃쫕틦?ꆡꆡ퓚뺭볃퓶뎤뫍짺닺싊쳡룟뗄뷸돌훐,늻뷶쮽죋늿쏅놾춶랢믓쇋훘튪듙뷸ퟷ폃,폃폚뺭볃믹뒡짨쪩붨짨뗄헾뢮릫릲춶튲ퟶ돶쇋늻뿉맀솿뗄릱쿗ꆣ뛔뺭볃랢햹웰뫋탄ퟷ폃뗄뺭볃믹뒡짨쪩,죧뷖뗀ꆢ릫슷ꆢ쳺슷ꆢ믺뎡ꆢ돇쫐룸쮮업쮮쾵춳뗈,폫쮽죋늿쏅뗄짺닺싊ꆢ펪샻쓜솦뫍춶탐캪폐횱뷓솪쾵ꆣ헾뢮폃폚릫릲믹뒡짨쪩붨짨뗄놾춶죫뻟폐짺닺탔,쯼쿠떱폚캪쮽죋뺭볃짺닺ힷ볓폐탎놾,쳡룟럇뻼쫂뗄릫릲춶붫쪹쮽죋늿쏅춶뗄뺭볃쫕틦싊퓶볓,뷸뛸쳡짽웤짺닺솦,듌벤쮽죋뷸튻늽삩듳춶,췆뚯뺭볃퓶뎤ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦,헾뢮폃폚릫릲쿻럑랽쏦뗄횧돶쯆뫵폫뺭볃짺닺싊뗄쳡룟뫍쮽죋뺭볃춶횮볤듦퓚뢺쏦솪쾵,떫퓚킭뗷짧믡릫욽폫뺭볃킧싊횮볤뗄쎬뛜맘쾵랽쏦랢믓쇋늻뿉쳦듺뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ뛔쮽죋뺭볃벴쫐뎡뺭볃닺짺믽벫ퟷ폃뗄릫릲춶,늻뷶냼삨폃폚뺭볃믹뒡짨쪩붨짨뗄폐탎놾뗄춶,뮹펦룃냼삨춨맽릫릲뷌폽뺭럑횧돶뗄춾뺶쯹쪵쿖뗄폃폚컞탎놾(죧죋솦놾ꆢ짧믡놾)랽쏦뗄춶ꆣ쿱릫슷붻춨뿉틔퓶볓릫슷뢽뷼뗄랿뗘닺춶뗄쫕틦싊튻퇹,릫솢뷌폽럾컱춨맽쳡룟샍뚯솦훊솿뫍풴샻폃싊,뿉틔퓶볓쫐뎡뺭볃늿쏅짺닺뺭펪믮뚯뗄쫕틦ꆣ떫쫇,Grier뫍Tullock(1987)닉폃115룶맺볒뗄쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝뷸탐춳볆럖컶,랢쿖헾뢮쿻럑탔횧돶햼헦쪵GDP뇈샽폫헦쪵GDP듦퓚쿔훸뢺쿠맘\[1\]ꆣBarro(1990)릹퓬튻룶볲떥쒣탍,죏캪헾뢮쿻럑탔횧돶뛔뺭볃퓶뎤폐뢺쿲펰쿬,릫릲횧돶쿔훸뗘펰쿬뺭볃퓶뎤싊\[2\]ꆣ쏀맺톧헟DavidAlanAschauer(1989)뛔쏀맺1949-1985쓪늻춬샠탍뗄릫릲놾횧돶뗄뺭볃닺돶떯탔뷸탐럖컶뗃쫕룥죕웚:2004-10-28ퟷ헟볲뷩:듞폱욽(1964ꆪ),쓐,늩쪿,쯕훝듳톧뷌폽톧풺뷌쫚ꆢ쮶쪿짺떼쪦,훷튪퇐뺿랽쿲캪뷌폽뺭볃톧ꆣ34' 1994-2014 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
돶뷡싛,죏캪뷌폽놾횧돶폫쫐뎡뺭볃늿쏅뗄짺닺싊횮볤쎻폐솪쾵,쫽뻝쿔쪾,뷌폽놾듦솿폫뺭볃짺닺싊횮볤늻듦퓚춳볆톧틢틥짏뗄솪쾵ꆣ죧뇭1쯹쪾,쏀맺헾뢮릫릲놾횧돶훐폃폚뷌폽붨짨뗄놾닺돶떯탔캪,쮵쏷폃폚뷌폽붨짨랽쏦뗄춶늻믡듙뷸뺭볃늿쏅짺닺싊뗄쳡룟,쿠랴믡떼훂횱뷓뗄맺쏱짺닺싊쟡캢뗄복짙\[3\],헢쫇붨솢퓚쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝럖컶짏뗄뷡맻,쎻폐뾼싇뷌폽놾춶죫뛔뺭볃퓶뎤뗄훍뫳펰쿬,틲뛸뿉쓜뗍맀쇋뷌폽춶뗄닺돶떯탔ꆣ폚쫇,1993쓪Aschauer뛔1960-1985쓪볤107룶쫐뎡뺭볃맺볒뗄뫡뛏쏦쫽뻝뷸탐춳볆럖컶(훍뫳킧펦뗄펰쿬뫜킡),뗃돶늻춬뗄뷡싛,죏캪릫릲뷌폽놾듦솿뻟폐헽뗄닺돶킧틦,폃폚뷌폽랽쏦뗄춶뿉틔뒴퓬뺭볃볛횵\[4\]ꆣ뇭1ꆡ쏀맺1949ꆪ1985쓪볤릫릲놾횧돶샠탍벰웤뛔짺닺싊뗄펰쿬릫릲놾횧돶샠탍놾닺돶떯탔뫋탄믹뒡짨쪩(릫슷ꆢ듳훚퓋쫤ꆢ믺뎡ꆢ뗧웸짨쪩ꆢ릩업쮮쾵춳)()웤쯼믹뒡짨쪩()튽풺()짨쪩캬뮤폫룼탂()뷌폽붨짨()ꆡꆡ힢:뇭훐삨뫅쓚쫽ퟖ캪뇪ힼ컳닮횵ꆣꆡꆡ쇏살풴: 1994-2014 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
캪뺭맽컯볛횸쫽뗷헻뫍헛뻉뒦샭뗄좫짧믡쓪만뚨닺듦솿ꆣ헢샯폃샍뚯솦죋뻹쪵볊GDP듺뇭Y/N,퓚뒦폚뎤웚뻹뫢ힴ첬쿂,볙짨룷쓪뷌폽놾듦솿뗄퓶뎤싊뗈폚춬쓪샍뚯솦쫽솿뗄퓶뎤싊,룷쓪만뚨닺듦솿뗄퓶뎤싊뗈폚춬쓪맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뗄퓶뎤싊,춨맽헢훖컈첬럖컶,췆뛏돶E/YꆢK/Y뗄횵ꆣ퓚탂맅뗤뺭볃퓶뎤샭싛뿲볜쓚,볙뚨횪쪶뫍벼쫵샍뚯솦뗄짺닺뒦폚튻훖뎤웚뻹뫢ힴ첬벴컈첬쟩뿶쿂,죋뻹뷌폽놾(E/N)듯떽뻹횵늢퓚뻹뫢쮮욽짏놣돖늻뇤,퓚뫶싔뷌폽벼쫵뇤뮯뗄쳵볾쿂,죋뻹횪쪶뫍벼쫵샍뚯솦뗄닺돶솿(L/N)튲듯떽컈첬늢놣돖늻뇤,폚쫇뷌폽놾듦솿뗄퓶뎤싊뗈폚풭쪼샍뚯솦듦솿뗄퓶뎤싊,폖뗈폚횪쪶뫍벼쫵샍뚯솦듦솿뗄퓶뎤싊,뗈폚튻룶뎣쫽(n\[5\]),벴ꚤL/L=ꚤN/N=ꚤE/E=nꆣ평폚릫릲뷌폽놾듦솿컞램횱뷓믱뗃,춨맽죧쿂쫽톧췆떼뫍뇤뮻,퓚컈첬쳵볾쿂,뿉틔볤뷓믱뗃폐맘쫽뻝ꆣ틲캪ꚤE/E=I/E-d,쟒ꚤE/E=ꚤN/N=n,폚쫇폐ꚤE/E=(I/Y)(Y/E)-d,E/Y=(I/Y)/(n+d)ꆣ헢샯ꚤE/E듺뇭뷌폽놾듦솿쓪퓶뎤싊,ꚤN/N뫍n뚼듺뇭샍뚯솦쫽솿짏뗄쓪퓶뎤싊,E/Y듺뇭쎿쓪평맺볒닆헾탔뷌폽뺭럑횧돶탎돉뗄릫릲뷌폽놾듦솿햼쓪GDP뗄뇈샽,I/Y듺뇭룷쓪맺볒닆헾탔뷌폽춶(쇷솿)햼GDP뗄뇈샽,d듺뇭뷌폽놾욽뻹쓪헛뻉싊,짨d=ꆣ죽ꆢ쪵횤럖컶ꆡꆡ닉폃훐맺1992-2001쓪뗄쫽뻝쇏(죧뇭2쯹쪾),내헕랽돌(5)뗄쒣탍,퓋폃춳볆죭볾뷸탐뛠풪믘맩럖컶ꆣꆡꆡ뇭2폐맘춳볆횸뇪벰룷쓪횸뇪쫽횵쪵볊샍뚯솦샍뻹쪵GDP쪵샍뚯솦놾탎쓪듺GDP(틚죋쫽(틚볊GDP볊뮷뇈뮷뇈퓶돉싊(춶K/YI/YE/Y풪)죋)(풪/죋)퓶뎤싊뎤싊싊)ꆡꆡ힢:뇭2훐쪵볊GDP횵틔1990쓪늻뇤볛룱볆쯣뗃돶,I/Y캪맺볒닆헾탔뷌폽뺭럑횧돶햼GDP뇈샽,E/Y벴릫릲뷌폽놾듦솿햼GDP뗄뇈샽,K/Y벴만뚨놾듦솿햼GDP뗄뇈샽뚼쫇ퟷ헟퓚쒣탍컈첬럖컶쳵볾쿂췆쯣돶살뗄,볆쯣릫쪽볻컄훐ꆣꆡꆡ쫽뻝살풴:1999-2003쓪ꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ,맺볒춳볆뻖죋뿚뫍짧믡뿆벼춳볆쮾ꆢ샍뚯뫍짧믡놣헏늿맦뮮닆컱쮾뇠ꆶ:훐맺샍뚯춳볆쓪본2003ꆷ,풭맺볒뷌캯닆컱쮾뇠ꆶ:훐맺뷌폽뺭럑춳볆쇏ꆷ,훐맺춶쓪본뇠벭캯풱믡뇠ꆶ:훐맺춶쓪본2002ꆷ,뷌폽늿랢햹맦뮮쮾뇠:ꆶ훐맺뷌폽춳볆쓪본2000ꆷꆣK/Y벴쪵볊놾ꆪꆪꆪ닺돶뇈뗄쫽횵놾뿉틔룹뻝헅뻼뗈톧헟뗄쯣램,닉폃1990쓪늻뇤볛룱뫍5%뗄만뚨놾쓪헛뻉싊볆쯣뗃돶\[6\]ꆣ떫쫇,뾼싇폫쏀맺톧헟(1993)뗄쯣램놣돖튻훂,틔뇣퓶볓뿉뇈탔,튲평폚뿉폃뗄쫽뻝폐쿞,폚쫇춬퇹닉폃컈첬럖컶쿂뗄췆쯣랽램,췆쯣돶K/Y뗄쫽횵,릫쪽캪:K/Y=(쓪만뚨놾탎돉싊벴춶싊)/(쓪GDP퓶뎤싊+d),d캪만뚨닺쓪헛뻉싊,짨캪ꆣ췆쯣돶살뗄뇈샽쫽횵뇈헅뻼뗈죋볆쯣돶살뗄쫽횵욽뻹풼킡ꆣ샻폃SPSS뗄좫믘맩랽램뛔뇭2쫽뻝룹뻝쒣탍(5)뷸탐뛠풪쿟탔믘맩럖컶,뷡맻죧뇭3쯹쪾:ꆡꆡ뇭3ꆡ뛠풪쿟탔믘맩럖컶뷡맻틲뇤솿뷘뻠Z20Z1Z2RF볬퇩Durbin2W퇹놾쫽ln(Y/N)atson춳볆뷡맻볬퇩횵ꆡꆡꆡꆡ뇪ힼ컳닮ꆡ쿔훸탔쮮욽ꆡꆡ평뇭3뿉횪,R2=,뇭쏷틲뇤솿폫ퟔ뇤솿횮볤폐룟뛈쿠맘,쒣탍ퟜ쳥짏폐뫜뫃뗄뷢쫍솦뫍쓢뫏킧맻ꆣF볬퇩뗄쿔훸탔쮮욽듯떽,룷믘맩쾵쫽늻캪쇣,룃믘맩랽돌폐쪵볊틢틥ꆣT볬퇩뇭쏷,횻폐쾵쫽Z1퓚쮮욽짏쏣잿춨맽볬퇩,쮵쏷쒣탍훐ln(E/Y)뗄ퟷ폃늢늻쪮럖쿔훸,떫죔좻듦퓚,뛸뷘뻠뫍쾵쫽Z2뫜뫃뗘춨맽쇋T볬퇩ꆣ평듋,뗃폐킧믘맩랽돌캪:36' 1994-2014 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
ln(Y/N)=+(E/Y)+(K/Y)z1=(1-ꛁ)3ꛂ/ꛃ=,z2=ꛁ/ꛃ=ꛃ,=(1-ꛁ)3(1-ꛂ)ꛁ=,1-ꛁ=ꛂ,=,1-ꛂ=평쒣탍(3)뿉횪,만뚨놾뗄닺돶떯탔캪ꛁ=,쫜맽뷌폽뗄믲벼쫵샍뚯솦뗄닺돶떯탔벴좫샍뚯뗄닺돶떯탔캪,웤훐캴쫜맽뷌폽뗄돵쪼샍뚯솦뗄닺돶떯탔캪릫릲뷌폽놾뗄닺돶떯탔(1-ꛁ)3(1-ꛂ)=,릫릲뷌폽놾뗄닺돶떯탔캪(1-ꛁ)3ꛂ=ꆣ헅뻼(헅뻼,2002)쪹폃맦쒣놨돪늻뇤뗄ퟜ솿짺닺몯쫽믘맩럖컶컒맺1952-1998쓪볤GDP훐춶죫튪쯘뗄릱쿗,맀볆돶만뚨놾뗄닺돶떯탔캪,좫샍뚯(냼삨죋솦놾)뗄닺돶떯탔캪,ퟷ헟뗄볆쯣뷡맻폫웤믹놾튻훂ꆣ헢샯탨튪잿뗷뗄쫇ퟷ헟폫헅뻼뗈뗄볆쯣,뻹닉폃믘맩뷡맻훐뗄뇪ힼ뮯쾵쫽(Beta),틲캪쒣탍훐ퟔ뇤솿폫틲뇤솿뗄좡횵떥캻늻튻훂,횱뷓뇈뷏럇뇪ힼ뮯뗄믘맩쾵쫽뿉쓜뗃떽늻헽좷뗄뷡싛,틲듋,캪쇋쪹쫽뻝퓚룼볓욽뗈뗄쳵볾쿂랢믓ퟷ폃,탨튪뛔쯹폐뗄뇤솿내룷ퟔ뗄뻹횵뫍뇪ힼ닮뷸탐뇪ힼ뮯,좻뫳뛔뇪ힼ뮯뫳뗄뇤솿쫽뻝뷸탐믘맩쓢뫏,헢퇹뗃떽뗄ퟔ뇤솿쾵쫽캪뇪ힼ뮯뗄믘맩쾵쫽,SPSS훐폃Beta뇭쪾ꆣ퓚짏쫶춳볆뷡맻뗄믹뒡짏,뿉틔뷸튻늽볆쯣돶컒맺퓚1992-201쓪볤만뚨놾춶뗄쓪욽뻹짧믡뇟볊쫕틦싊r1뫍릫릲뷌폽놾춶뗄쓪욽뻹짧믡뇟볊쫕틦싊r2,벴:r1=ꛁ3(Y/K)=ꚤY/ꚤK=,ꆡꆡꆡr2=(1-ꛁ)3ꛂ3(Y/E)=ꚤY/ꚤE=쯄ꆢ뷡싛폫럖컶룹뻝틔짏춳볆럖컶뷡맻,뗃돶죧쿂뷡싛:뗚튻,펰쿬컒맺GDP퓶뎤뗄룷틲쯘훐,만뚨놾뗄닺돶욫떯탔캪,냼삨죋솦놾퓚쓚뗄좫샍뚯뗄닺돶욫떯탔캪,쮵쏷퓚웤쯼튪쯘춶죫놣돖늻뇤뗄쟩뿶쿂,만뚨놾춶죫뫍샍뚯ퟜ솿춶죫럖뇰뛀ퟔ퓶볓1%,붫떼훂맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵럖뇰퓶볓%뫍%ꆣ퓚쿟탔웫듎뗄뿆늼ꆪ뗀룱삭쮹짺닺몯쫽쳵볾쿂,쮵쏷놾쫕틦뫍좫샍뚯쫕틦햼맺쏱뺭볃ퟜ쫕틦뗄뇈샽럖뇰쫇44%뫍56%,뛸쿠펦뗘맺볊욽뻹쮮욽럖뇰캪27%뫍73%(Aschauer,1993,P98)ꆣ뗚뛾,컒맺샍뚯솦(냼몬죋솦놾)뗄닺돶떯탔듳폚놾뗄닺돶떯탔,럻뫏쫀뷧룷맺뺭볃랢햹뗄튻냣맦싉,떫폫랢듯맺볒쿠뇈,좫샍뚯뗄닺돶떯탔쏷쿔욫킡\[7\]ꆣ쮵쏷헾뢮펦룃뷸튻늽볓듳뛔죋솦풴뾪랢뗄춶솦뛈,퓚폐킧뗄훆뛈낲업뫍헾닟뮷뺳쿂,쳡룟죋솦놾뗄엤훃킧싊,탨튪뷸튻늽삩듳뗚죽닺튵뗄뇈훘,뛸늻쫇맽럖ힷ쟳룟놾믽샛ꆢ룟놾쿻뫄뗄듖럅탍뗄췢퇓쪽랢햹뗀슷ꆣ뗚죽,릫릲뷌폽놾뗄닺돶욫떯탔풼캪,쫇헽쫽,쮵쏷릫릲뷌폽뺭럑춶죫쎿퓶볓1%,붫쪹GDP퓶볓%ꆣ퓚늻뾼싇맦쒣놨돪뗄쟩뿶쿂,듓뎤웚뻹뫢ힴ첬짏뾴(욽뻹틢틥짏),뷼쓪살평릫릲뷌폽춶죫쯹듸살뗄뺭볃퓶뎤솿햼GDP퓶뎤솿뗄뇈샽횻폐%,풶풶킡폚1960-1985쓪볤뗄맺볊욽뻹쮮욽20%(Aschauer,1993,P98)ꆣ뗚쯄,릫릲뷌폽놾춶죫뗄쓪욽뻹짧믡뇟볊쫕틦싊풼캪%,룟폚맺볊욽뻹쮮욽%(Aschauer,1993,P103)ꆣ헢튻랽쏦쮵쏷헾뢮볓듳뷌폽춶죫,쫇폐샻뿉춼뗄ꆣ릫릲뷌폽춶쫇짺닺탔춶,뻟폐뿉맛뗄뺭볃볛횵;쇭튻랽쏦튲쮵쏷랢햹훐맺볒뗄뷌폽춶짧믡쫕틦싊튻냣듳폚랢듯맺볒ꆣ뗚컥,만뚨놾춶뗄쓪욽뻹짧믡뇟볊쫕틦싊풼캪,싔듳폚릫릲뷌폽놾춶뗄쓪욽뻹짧믡뇟볊쫕틦싊ꆣ쮵쏷뷌폽놾춶폫컯훊놾춶튻퇹,뚼뿉틔듸살짧믡뺭볃볛횵ꆣ듓춶뻹뫢뗄뷇뛈뾴,평폚r2싔킡폚r1,쮵쏷뷌폽춶퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏듦퓚춶뿕볤,떫늢늻쓜쮵쏷뷼쓪살컒맺듦퓚릫릲뷌폽춶퇏훘늻ퟣ뗄컊쳢ꆣ닎뾼컄쿗\[1\]ꆡ.&-NationalEconomicGrowth,,1987,24,259-276.\[2\]ꆡ,JournalofPoliticalEconomy,1990,98,103-125.\[3\]ꆡ 1994-2014 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
