2004쓪뗚4웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ춳볆퇐뺿ꆡ2004StatisticalResearch55죋쏱뇒뻹뫢믣싊맀볆:햳탔볛룱쒿뇪쟸쒣탍랽램3쿩쪤ꆡ퇮ꆡABSTRACTThemanagedfloatingexchangeratesystemisoneofspecialmanifestationsoftargetzonesystem,,thesticky2pricemodelisoneofbestmodels,,astochasticdifferentialequationmaybeestablished,andinthelightoftheequation,,ap2plyingthesticky2pricemodeltoestimateRMBequilibriumexchangerate.ꆡꆡ맘볼듊:죋쏱뇒;뻹뫢믣싊;햳탔볛룱ꆡꆡ튻ꆢ틽퇔놾뗄쒿뇪쟸쒣탍훐뗄떯탔볛룱뗄삩햹ꆣ쏗샕뫍캬샕퓚뷨본뛠뛷늼쪩(Dornbusch,1976)뗄쯦믺뺭볃쒣탍돉맻뗄믹뒡쯹캽뻹뫢믣싊,횸뗄쫇뫍헻룶뫪맛뺭볃킭뗷뻹뫢랢짏,붫뿋슳룱싼뗄떯탔볛룱쒿뇪쟸쒣탍삩햹캪햳탔볛룱햹쿠튻훂쪱뗄믣싊쮮욽ꆣ퓚헢튻믣싊쮮욽쿂,쓚췢늿뺭쒿뇪쟸쒣탍,듓뛸쪹쒣탍뗃떽쇋룼뛠뗄쪵횤횧돖ꆣ떫쫇,볃춬쪱쪵쿖쇋뻹뫢(Edwards,1989)ꆣ틲듋,뻹뫢믣싊쮮욽햳탔볛룱쒿뇪쟸쒣탍뗄늻ퟣ횮뒦쫇,평쯼쯹뗃떽뗄쯦믺뿉틔춨맽뫪맛뺭볃튻냣뻹뫢랽램뗃떽ꆣ좻뛸,평폚믣싊캢럖랽돌쎻폐쿔쪽뷢,틲뛸룸뚨솿럖컶듸살쇋튻뚨뗄삧뇤솿뗄틗뇤탔,벴쪹퓚ퟔ평뢡뚯믣싊쳥훆쿂튲듦퓚믣싊쓑ꆣ캪쇋뷢뻶헢튻컊쳢,죸즪삼(Sutherland,1994)폃쏝벶뇤뮯뎬풽믹놾뺭볃틲쯘뇤뮯뗄쿖쿳,뿶쟒쿖쪵믣싊뛠짙쫽랽램쟳뷢쏗샕2캬샕쒣탍뗄믣싊몯쫽,뾭쏅엁(Kempa,튪쫜떽믵뇒떱뻖뗄룉풤ꆣ틲듋,늻뿉쓜볲떥뗘춨맽뫪맛1997)뗈죋퓲폃업쇐벼쫵쟳뷢믣싊몯쫽ꆣ헢킩퇐뺿랽램쯤뺭볃튻냣뻹뫢랽램뗃떽뻹뫢믣싊,믲헟쮵,볲떥뗘춨맽뫪좻뚼폐늻췪짆횮뒦,떫쫇뚼좡뗃쇋쿠뛔싺틢뗄돉맻ꆣ맛뺭볃튻냣뻹뫢랽램뗃떽뗄뻹뫢믣싊뿉쓜듦퓚뷏듳뗄욫떱좻,쏗샕폫캬샕(1991)ꆢ죸즪삼(1994)뫍뾭쏅엁닮ꆣ캪쇋뿋럾헢튻쎬뛜,놾컄쫔춼폃햳탔볛룱쒿뇪쟸랽(1997)뗈죋뗄퇐뺿훷튪벯훐퓚뛔믣싊몯쫽뷢뗄탎쪽뫍믹램살뷸탐맀볆,틔뇣쪹맀볆뷡맻룼럻뫏쪵볊ꆣ놾틲쯘럖늼쳘헷랽쏦뗄첽쳖ꆣ춬쪱,캪쇋럖컶볲뇣웰볻,믹놾뗄믣싊쒿뇪쟸쒣탍ퟮ돵평뿋슳룱싼(Krugman,쯻쏇퓚뻟쳥럖컶맽돌훐뛔쒣탍뷸탐쇋쫊떱뗄볲뮯ꆣ늻1991)뒴솢ꋙ,룃쒣탍붨솢퓚췢믣쫐뎡폐킧ꆢ볛룱떯탔ꆢ뇟맽,횻튪뛔쯻쏇뗄쒣탍뷸탐쫊떱뗄삩햹,늢쟒쒿뇪쟸뇟뷧풵룉풤뫍쒿뇪쟸췪좫뿉탅뗈볙짨뗄믹뒡짏,쯼쫇튻룶믣쳵볾뗃떽싺ퟣ,췪좫뿉틔룹뻝믣싊몯쫽쟳뷢뫍풤닢뻹뫢싊뻶뚨뗄믵뇒쒣탍ꆣ쯤좻뿋슳룱싼쒣탍뷡릹뺫쟉,떫쫇쯼웕뇩쫜떽쇋쪵횤럖컶뗄쳴햽ꆣ틲듋,뫳살뗄뺭볃톧볒쏇캪쇋쪹쒣탍룼볓럻뫏쪵볊,뛔뿋슳룱싼쒣탍훐뗄쒳킩3놾컄쫇컒쏇돐떣뗄맺볒ퟔ좻뿆톧믹뷰뿎쳢ꆶ죋쏱뇒뻹뫢믣싊퇐뺿ꆷ뗄잰웚뷗뛎탔뗄돵늽퇐뺿돉맻횮튻ꆣ쿮쒿뇠뫅:퇏룱볙뚨뷸탐쇋탞헽,훷튪뗄퇐뺿벯훐퓚럅쯉쒿뇪쟸췪70173006ꆣ좫뿉탅뗄볙뚨ꆢ뎬뇟볊룉풤뫍햳탔볛룱뛔쒿뇪쟸쓚믣싊ꋙ믹놾뗄믣싊쒿뇪쟸쒣탍ퟮ돵평뿋슳룱싼퓚1987쓪11퓂탐캪뗄펰쿬뗈랽쏦(KempaandNelles,1999)ꆣ웤훐,뇈뷏뗄튻욪릤ퟷ싛컄훐쳡돶,1991쓪룃욪싛컄헽쪽퓚ꆶ뺭볃톧벾뾯ꆷ짏폐펰쿬뗄쫇쏗샕뫍캬샕(MillerandWeller,1991)뗈죋뛔믹랢뇭,헢샯틔헽쪽랢뇭쪱볤캪틀뻝ꆣ' 1995-2005 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
56춳볆퇐뺿믣싊횵ꆣ풤웚춨믵엲헍싊,s쫇쏻틥믣싊(죋쏱뇒/쏀풪)뗄뛔쫽,쿖뷗뛎훐맺죋쏱뇒쪵탐뗄쫇폐맜샭뗄뢡뚯믣싊훆3p쫇맺췢볛룱쮮욽뗄뛔쫽ꆣ랽돌(3)쏨쫶쇋볛룱쮮욽뗷뛈ꆣ듓샭싛짏쮵,폐맜샭뗄뢡뚯믣싊훆뗄믹놾쳘뗣쫇,믣뷚ힴ뿶,쯼뇭쏷볛룱뗷뷚싽폚쪵볊닺돶뛔돤럖뻍튵닺돶싊뗄탎돉틔쫐뎡캪믹뒡,틀뻝췢믣쫐뎡쳵볾ퟔ평뢡뚯ꆣ뗄욫샫,헢샯뗄춨믵엲헍맽돌캪쯦믺맽돌ꆣ쪽훐,y쫇돤횻폐떱믣싊퇏훘뗘욫샫뻹뫢믣싊,믲헟퓚뛌쪱웚쓚믣싊럖뻍튵닺돶뗄뛔쫽,z캪뇪ힼ캬쓉맽돌,ꛒ캪쯦믺뇤솿뗄늨뚯럹뛈맽듳쪱,헾뢮닅믡뷩죫췢믣쫐뎡틔쫊떱뗄랽쪽뇪ힼ닮ꆣ랽돌(4)쫇쳗샻쳵볾,쯼뇭쏷쏻틥믣싊뗄풤웚뇡욽틖믣싊맽뛈늨뚯,쪹웤캬돖퓚뫏샭뗄늨뚯랶캧쓚ꆣ틲횵싊뗈폚맺쓚췢뗄샻싊닮ꆣ쪽훐3,i쫇맺췢샻싊쮮욽ꆣ듋,폐맜샭뗄뢡뚯믣싊훆뗄폐킧쪵쪩,췪좫폐삵폚튻룶볈랽돌(5)캪춨믵엲헍뚨틥,쯼붫ꛐ뚨틥캪벴웚뗄풤웚춨믵뚨뗄쒿뇪룉풤랶캧ꆣ쯼폫믣싊쒿뇪쟸훆뛈늻춬횮뒦퓚엲헍싊ꆣ폚,퓚믣싊쒿뇪쟸훆뛈쿂믵뇒떱뻖쏷좷뗘붨솢쇋붫살믣짏쫶쒣탍뿉틔놻훘탂킴돉죧쿂탎쪽:싊뇤뚯뗄튻룶쒿뇪쟸랶캧,뛸헢샯뗄쒿뇪룉풤랶캧춨뎣dppꛒ뇭쿖캪튻룶ힼ쒿뇪쟸ꆣ쯹틔,폐맜샭뗄뢡뚯믣싊훆뛈쪵=Adt+Bdt+dz(6)E()tdss0볊짏쫇튻훖ힼ쒿뇪쟸훆뛈ꆣ좻뛸,평폚뫪맛뺭볃뮷뺳뫍헢샯맜샭뷡릹쮮욽뗈랽쏦뗄풭틲,훐맺쿖탐뗄믣싊훆뛈쫂쪵a11a121-<(ꛃ+ꛋꛇ)<ꛋꛇ짏샠쯆폚튻훖뚢힡쏀풪뗄만뚨믣싊훆뛈A==,웤뢡뚯탔믹놾aꚤ21a221-kꛇ-<ꛃkꛇ,짏쎻폐뗃떽뇭쿖ꆣ쯦ퟅ훐맺뺭볃맺볊뮯랢햹쮮욽뗄늻뛏b1쳡룟1<(ꛃm+ꛋꛇ3p-ꚤꆤy)ꋚB==,헢훖믣싊훆뛈뗄뇗뛋붫믡죕틦춻쿖돶살ꆣbꚤ,33룹뻝췾솮쒷즭2(ꛃ<-1)m+kꛇp-ꚤꆤi(Williamson,1986)뗈뺭볃톧볒뗄맛뗣,뇜쏢믣싊뎬뗷뗄폐킧냬램쫇훷튪믵뇒맺볒쪵탐믣싊쒿뇪늢쟒ꚤ=kꛃ+ꛋ-<ꛃꛋꆣ볙죧뻘헳A뗄탐쇐쪽뗄횵캪뢺,쟸훆뛈ꆣ듓쪵볹짏뾴벴-<ꛇΠꚤ<0뫍kꛋ-1><-ꛃ-1,쓇쎴쒣탍뻟폐낰뗣쳘헷ꆣ,ퟔ20쫀볍70쓪듺퓧웚늼샗뛙즭쇖쳥쾵뇀삣틔살,쫀뷧짏탭뛠맺볒쪵탐쇋믣싊쒿뇪쟸훆뛈퓚햳탔볛룱쒣탍(6)훐,폐볛룱쮮욽뫍믵뇒릩룸솽룶,죧탭뛠삭뚡쏀훞맺볒(죧훇샻폫쒫컷룧뗈)뫍쒳킩뚫얷맺뇤솿,쯼쏇럖뇰뛀솢뗘펰쿬믣싊ꆣ캪쇋쟳뷢쒣탍(6),볙짨볒몯쫽탎쪽캪s=f(p,m)ꆣ룹뻝틁쳙틽샭,뿉틔뗃떽틔쿂(죧뛭싞쮹뫍늨삼뗈)뗈(KempaandNelles,1999)ꆣ쯹틔,캪쇋뇜쏢죋쏱뇒믣싊돶쿖뎬뗷쿖쿳,쪵탐믣싊쒿뇪쟸쯦믺캢럖랽돌:2훆뛈튲쫇훐맺믣싊훆뛈룄룯뗄뷏뫃뗄톡퓱랽쪽횮튻ꆣ듓ꆡds=fp(p,m)dp+fm(p,m)dmꛒ+f2pp(p,m)dt(7)죋쏱뇒믣싊탎돉믺훆뗄캴살룄룯쟷쿲뾴,벴쪹늻쪵탐쏷평폚퓚쒿뇪쟸쓚믵뇒릩룸늻뇤,쯹틔dm캪쇣ꆣ춬쪱,뛔좷뗄믣싊쒿뇪쟸훆뛈,죋쏱뇒믣싊뗄뢡뚯랶캧튲붫믡쫊랽돌(7)쟳웚췻,뗃떽:떱뗘럅뿭,틲듋,췪좫뿉틔볙뚨죋쏱뇒믣싊듦퓚튻룶ힼ쒿ꛒ2뇪쟸E(ds)=fp(p,m)E(dp)+f2pp(p,m)dt(8),샻폃삩햹뗄햳탔볛룱쒣탍살닢쯣뫍풤닢죋쏱뇒뻹뫢믣싊ꆣꋙ컄헂웤폠늿럖뗄뷡릹낲업죧쿂:뗚뛾늿럖붫랽돌(6)훐뗄E(ds)뫍E(dp)듺죫랽돌(8),뗃떽:,쏨쫶햳탔볛룱쒣탍벰웤뷢뗄탎쪽;뗚죽늿럖,샻폃쒣탍쟳뷢ꆡa21p+a22f(p,m)+b2=죋쏱뇒뫍쏀풪뗄뻹뫢믣싊;ퟮ뫳늿럖,뛔좫컄ퟷ튻ퟜ뷡ꆣꆡꛒ2[a11p+a12f(p,m)+b1]fp(p,m)+f2pp(p,m)(9)ꆡꆡ뛾ꆢ쒣탍헢샯,aij쫇뻘헳A뗄풪쯘,bi쫇뻘헳B뗄풪쯘ꆣ쏗샕뫍캬샕평폚쯦믺캢럖랽돌(9)쎻폐쿔쪽뷢,쯹틔뇘탫쫗쿈볙(1991)뗄햳탔볛룱쒿뇪쟸쒣탍,붨솢퓚볛룱햳탔뫍탨쟳뻶뚨닺돶뗈볙뚨믹뒡횮짏,쒣탍평틔쿂쾵짨뷢뗄몯쫽f(p,m)뗄탎쪽,좻뫳듺죫랽돌(9)살좷뚨뷢쇐랽돌룸돶뗄몯쫽f(p,m)ꆣ헢샯컒쏇샻폃죸즪삼(1994)뗄쏝벶쫽랽:m램살뷢뻶듋컊쳢ꆣ늻럁볙짨쯦믺캢럖랽돌(9)뗄뷢뗄탎-p=ky-ꛋi(1)쪽죧쿂:y=-ꛃ(i-ꛐ)+ꛇ(s-p+3p)(2)dp=<(y-y)dt+ꛒdz(3)E3()tds)=(i-idt(4)ꋙ쒿잰죋쏱뇒믣싊믹놾짏늻랢짺뇤뮯,헢폫폐맜샭뗄뢡뚯ꛐ=E(dp)Πd믣싊훆뗄믹놾튪쟳늻럻ꆣ듓샭싛짏쮵,죋쏱뇒펦룃폐튻룶쫊떱뗄t(5)랽돌(1)쏨쫶쇋맺쓚믵뇒쫐뎡뻹뫢쳵볾,쪽훐m쫇믵뇒릩뢡뚯쟸볤,컒쏇헽쫇듓헢룶틢틥짏살볙뚨죋쏱뇒믣싊폐튻룶뫏샭룸뗄뛔쫽뗄쟸볤,샻폃햳탔쒿뇪쟸쒣탍뷸탐맀볆ꆣ듓쇭튻룶뷇뛈붲,헢퇹,p쫇볛룱쮮욽뗄뛔쫽,y쫇GNP뗄뛔쫽,i쫇맺맀볆돶뗄믣싊닅쫇헦헽뗄뻹뫢믣싊ꆣ쓚샻싊쮮욽ꆣ랽돌(2)쏨쫶쇋맺쓚짌욷쫐뎡뻹뫢쳵볾,쯼ꋚ쏗샕뫍캬샕뗈죋퓚럖컶훐,볙뚨yꆢp3뫍3t캪0ꆣ헢샯컒뇭쏷닺돶평쪵볊샻싊뫍쪵볊믣싊뻶뚨ꆣ쪽훐ꛐ,쫇벴웚뗄쏇믖뢴놣쇴헢킩뇤솿,틔쪹뫳쏦뗄볆쯣룼ힼ좷ꆣ' 1995-2005 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
쿩쪤ꆡ퇮ꆡ:죋쏱뇒뻹뫢믣싊맀볆:햳탔볛룱쒿뇪쟸쒣탍랽램57f(p,m)=s+ꛈ(p-p)+g(p,m)(10)mp=ky-ꛋi(13)헢샯,p쫇쿂쏦뗄쏝벶쫽햹뾪훐p뗄죎틢횵,ꛈ쫇뻘헳Ay=-ꛃiꛐ+ꛇspp(14)뗄컈뚨뗄쳘헷쿲솿뗄킱싊,s=(1-ꛈ)m+ꛈpꆣ랽돌(10)ꆡꆡ쿂쏦살맀볆랽돌(13)뫍(14)ꆣ평폚mpꆢyꆢiꆢiꛐ뫍spp훐뗄잰솽쿮랴펳뗄쫇믣싊뗄ퟔ평뢡뚯횵,g(p,m)랴펳뗄쫇쪱볤탲쇐뇤솿,쯹틔탨튪뷸탐떥캻룹볬퇩ꆣꋙ뺭ADF쫇쒿뇪쟸믣싊뛔ퟔ평뢡뚯믣싊뗄욫샫ꆣ몯쫽g(p,m)틔랽램볬퇩횪,쯹폐뗄뇤솿뻹캪욽컈탲쇐(볬퇩뷡맻볻뇭p캪훐탄햹뾪뗄쏝벶쫽뷢뗄탎쪽죧쿂:1),틲듋뿉틔횱뷓뷸탐믘맩ꆣ쪹폃OLS랽램믘맩뗃떽:g(p,m)=c0+2c1(p-p)+c2(p-p)mp=115458y-010211i-101033(15)(2118696)(-410624)+ꆭ+ncn(p-p)+ꆭ(11)헢샯,쾵쫽R2=019935,D1W=118291,F=61012443c0,c1,ꆭ,cn,ꆭ쫇믵뇒릩룸m뗄몯쫽,p뗣뿉y=-010435iꛐ(t-3)-115029spp+1311634(16)틔캪죎틢뗣ꆣ(붫쏝벶쫽랽돌-410894)(-416134)(10)뫍(11)듺죫랽돌(9),늢뺭맽헻샭,뿉틔뗃돶쏝벶쫽쾵쫽뗄죧쿂쾵쇐뇭듯쪽R2=018554,D1W1=213322,F=1417863:룹뻝짏쫶럖컶뿉틔뗃떽:k=115458,ꛋ=010211,ꛃ=1c2=ꛒ2[(a22-a12ꛈ)c0-b1c1-a12c0c1]010435,ꛇ=-115029ꆣ뇭1떥캻룹뗄ADF볬퇩뷡맻1c3=3ꛒ2[(a22-a11-2a12ꛈ)c1뇤솿(c,t,n)ADF횵쇙뷧횵뷡싛ꆡꆡmp(c,t,l)-615078-5147763욽컈-22b1c2-a12(c1+2c0c2)]ꆡꆡꆡ꛳y(c,t,l)-513848-41081533욽컈(12)i(0,0,2)-216853-11989033욽컈2icꛐ(0,0,2)-217016-11989033욽컈n=1(n-1)nꛒ2{[(a22-(n-2)a1spp(c,0,3)-1417543-4188753욽컈ꆡꆡ-(n-1)a12ꛈ]cn-2-(n-1)b1cn-1ꛐ(c,t,2)-513105-41196133욽컈ꆡꆡn-2힢:(c,t,n)럖뇰뇭쪾퓚ADF볬퇩훐쫇럱몬폐뎣쫽쿮ꆢ쪱볤쟷쫆-a12[ρ(n-1-i)cicn-1-i]}i쿮틔벰훍뫳뷗쫽캪n3;뫍33럖뇰뇭쪾퓚볬퇩쮮욽캪1%뫍5%ꆡꆡꆡ꛳뗄쟩뿶쿂뗃떽ꆣ헢샯,b1=a11p+a12s+b1ꆣ틲듋,횻튪룸돶c0뫍c1뗄훁폚<,뿉틔룹뻝쿂쇐쪽ퟓ맀볆뗃돶:횵,뻍뿉틔룹뻝잰쏦뗄솽룶쾵쫽횵쟳돶뫳쏦쏝벶쫽쾵쫽ꛐ=<(y-y)(17)뗄횵ꆣ본폚훐맺뺭볃랢햹뗄쪵볊쟩뿶,늻럁좡y횵캪12(틔1990훁폚c0뫍c1뗄횵,뿉틔룹뻝뇟뷧쳵볾쟳뗃ꆣ늻럁볙쓪늻뇤볛룱볆횵),퓙뚨틥y^=y-yꆣ샻폃OLS랽램믘맩짨쒿뇪쟸뗄짏쿂뷧럖뇰캪su뫍sl,pu뫍pl럖뇰캪춬su뫍뗃떽:sꛐ=-013356y^t-2-014806(18)l쿠뛔펦뗄뗣,죧맻p좡횵캪pu(믲p)l,쓇쎴룹뻝랽돌(10)뫍(11)뿉틔뗃떽:f(p,m)=su[믲f(p,m)=sl],(-414178)fR2=017360,D1W1=115235,F=1915173p(p,m)=0ꆣ듓뛸뗃떽:c0=su-ꛈpu-(1-ꛈ)m[믲c0=sl-ꛈpl-(1-ꛈ)m],c1=-ꛈꆣ쿂쏦살샻폃짏쫶쒣탍쟳쯦틲듋,뿉틔뗃떽:<=-013356ꆣ믺캢럖랽돌룹뻝짏쏦맀볆돶뗄닎쫽횵,뿉틔볆쯣돶뻘헳A뫍B(9)뗄뷢s=f(p,m),늢샻폃듋믣싊몯쫽살볆쯣믣싊ꆣ뗄횵:a11a121-<(ꛃ+ꛋꛇ)<ꛋꛇꆡꆡ죽ꆢ쪵횤럖컶폫뷡맻A==aꚤ21a221-kꛇ-<ꛃkꛇ캪쇋쟳뷢쯦믺캢럖랽돌(9),뇘탫쫗쿈맀볆돶닎쫽kꆢ010448011199=ꛋꆢꛃꆢꛇ뫍<뗄횵ꆣ뛔폚뺭볃랢햹뇈뷏돉쫬뗄맺볒,닎쫽3717067-2612446kꆢꛋꆢꛃꆢꛇ뫍<튻냣뚼폐튻룶뺭퇩횵ꆣ떫쫇,평폚훐맺뗄룄룯뾪럅쪱볤뇈뷏췭,뿶쟒뷸죫20쫀볍90쓪듺뫳뺭볃닅ꋙ퇹놾웚캪1991ꆫ2001쓪,뇤솿p(닉폃뻓쏱쿻럑컯볛횸늽죫튻룶쿠뛔욽컈뗄랢햹쪱웚ꆣ쯹틔,좱랦듳볒웕뇩뿉쫽)ꆢy뫍s뗄풭쪼쫽뻝살ퟔ폐맘쓪럝뗄ꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ,웤훐,y틔뷓쫜뗄뺭퇩닎쫽횵ꆣ헢샯컒쏇샻폃쿖듺뺭볃볆솿랽램뗄풭쪼쫽뻝춳튻폃1990쓪뗄볛룱뷸탐쇋뗷헻,p뗄믹웚뗷헻캪살맀볆헢킩닎쫽횵ꆣ1990쓪;뇤솿p3ꆢi(닉폃듦뿮샻싊3)ꆢi(닉폃쏀맺솪냮믹뷰샻싊)뫍m(닉폃M2)뗄풭쪼쫽뻝살ퟔIMF뗄ꆶ맺볊뷰죚춳볆쓪본ꆷ캪랽뇣웰볻,늻럁뚨틥mp=m-p,iꛐ=i-ꛐ,spp=s(펢컄냦,2002),웤훐p3뗄믹웚뗷헻캪1990쓪;ꛐ룹뻝뚨틥평p-p+3pꆣ틲듋,랽돌(1)뫍(2)뇤캪:볆쯣뗃돶ꆣ' 1995-2005 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
58춳볆퇐뺿뇭2닎뇤솿횵뫍맀볆뷡맻쓪럝p3mb1sb1c0pf(p,m)e^19954167561110144217745219873313737-01812551248111981771255119964169871112397217394218895313269-017147051327921120981338819974169871114281217081218088312859-01634051355221157781651519984167281115670216819217493312526-01574551347121140581503319994168121117039216615216940312255-01519251340921130681419520004173801118201216485216430312065-01468251358921154481622720014176131119723216266215793311769-014045513622211546816244힢:e^캪f(P,m)좥뛔쫽뮯뫳뗄횵ꆣꆡꆡb11<(ꛃm+ꛋꛇ3p-ꚤꆤy)훐맺뺭볃맺볊뮯랢햹튪쟳랽쏦뾴,쪵탐믣싊쒿뇪쟸훆뛈B==bꚤ2(ꛃ<-1)m+kꛇ3p-ꚤꆤ3i쫇훐맺믣싊훆뛈캴살룄룯뗄믹놾좡쿲ꆣ벴쪹늻쪵탐쏷좷3-011647m+011199p-013356y뗄믣싊쒿뇪쟸훆뛈,죋쏱뇒믣싊뗄뢡뚯랶캧튲붫믡쫊떱=-11133462m-2612446p-뗘럅뿭,뷬쪱죋쏱뇒쪵볊짏쪵탐뗄쫇ힼ쒿뇪쟸훆뛈ꆣ틲i평뻘헳A뿉틔뗃떽듋,샻폃삩햹뗄햳탔볛룱쒣탍살닢쯣뫍풤닢죋쏱뇒뻹뫢:a11ꆢa12ꆢa21뫍a22뗄횵럖뇰캪010448ꆢ011199ꆢ3717067뫍-2612446ꆣ평뻘헳A뮹뿉틔쟳뗃ꛈ뗄믣싊쫇뫏샭뗄ꆣ듓쪵볊맀볆뷡맻뾴,샻폃쏗샕2캬샕뗄햳횵캪11425,듓뛸뗃떽탔볛룱쒿뇪쟸쒣탍쯹맀볆돶뗄죋쏱뇒뫍쏀풪뗄뻹뫢믣싊c1뗄횵캪-11425ꆣ룹뻝뇭2훐뗄m뫍3p뗄횵틔벰y뗄횵,평뻘헳B뿉틔뗃떽b1뗄횵쮮욽뷏룟ꆣ죧맻틔듋살뫢솿쿖쪵뗄죋쏱뇒믣싊쮮욽,쒿(뻟쳥쫽횵볻뇭2)ꆣ평쯦믺뇤솿뗄럖늼뗃떽ꛒ뗄횵캪잰뗄죋쏱뇒듦퓚룟맀쿖쿳ꆣ횮쯹틔믡돶쿖헢훖쿖쿳,튻룶뫏샭뗄뷢쫍쫇,폫돤럖뻍튵쯹튪쟳뗄닺돶쮮욽쿠뇈,쒿012725ꆣ평폚1995쓪틔살죋쏱뇒뫍쏀풪뗄믣싊듳쳥놣돖퓚잰훐맺뗄닺돶쮮욽뮹뫜뗍,쳘뇰쫇뷼벸쓪뺭볃돶쿖쇋뮺8128ퟳ폒,뾼싇떽쿖뷗뛎뫍뷱뫳튻뛎쪱웚훐맺뺭볃랢햹쟩뿶,쯹틔늻럁붫쒿뇪쟸뗄쿂뷧싽퓶뎤뗄벣쿳,틲듋죋쏱뇒듦퓚뇡횵뗄쟣쿲폐웤뿍맛뺭sl뚨캪119741,짏뷧su뚨캪볃믹뒡ꆣꋙ211748ꆣ좡p횵캪5138(헢샯늻럁볙뚨p=pu)ꆣ룹떱좻,샻폃햳탔볛룱쒣탍맀볆죋쏱뇒뻹뫢믣싊,튲듦뻝짏쫶쫽뻝,뿉틔뗃떽c0ꆢbtꆢs뫍b1뗄횵(뻟쳥횵럖뇰볻퓚튻킩탨튪뷸튻늽뷢뻶뗄컊쳢ꆣ쒣탍훐뗄믹놾뺭볃닎쫽뇭2)ꆣ붫짏쫶폐맘쫽횵,틔벰볛룱p뗄횵,럖뇰듺죫랽돌뚼쫇춨맽뫪맛뺭볃뇤솿맀볆돶살뗄ꆣ좻뛸,평폚쒿잰훐(12)ꆢ(11)뫍(10),벴뷢돶f(p,m)뫍뻟쳥믣싊뗄횵(뻟쳥맺뺭볃헽뒦폚탍횮훐,튻랽쏦늻춬쪱웚뗄뺭볃뇤뮯닮뷡맻볻뇭2)ꆣ틬뷏듳,틲뛸듦퓚쫽뻝쫇럱춬훊탔컊쳢ꆣ쇭튻랽쏦,쒿잰ꆡꆡ쯄ꆢ뷡싛훐맺뺭볃쳥쾵뗄컈뚨탔뷏닮,샻폃쿖폐뗄쫽뻝쯹맀볆돶뗄믹놾뺭볃닎쫽살볆쯣뻹뫢믣싊,퓚늻춬뗄쓪럝뿉쓜믡컒쏇믹폚쏗샕2캬샕뗄햳탔볛룱쒿뇪쟸쒣탍,맀볆쇋돶쿖쿠떱듳뗄컳닮ꆣ폐본폚듋,컒쏇퓚맀볆믹놾뺭볃닎죋쏱뇒뫍쏀풪뗄뻹뫢믣싊ꆣ폫웤쯻랽램뗄늻춬횮뒦퓚쫽쪱,쪹폃뗄쫇1991ꆫ2001쓪뗄쫽뻝ꆣ죧맻듓뒿뺭볃볆폚,헢훖랽램붫뫪맛뺭볃튻냣뻹뫢랽램뫍믣싊뇤뚯쫜믵솿럖컶뗄뷇뛈뾴,쯹쪹폃뗄쫽뻝첫짙ꆣ떫쫇,평폚헢뛎쪱뇒떱뻖룉풤뗄쳘뗣뷏뫃뗘죚뫏폚뻟쳥뗄맀볆횮훐,틲뛸웚뺭볃쿠뛔컈뚨,쯹틔쯼뇈쪹폃1981ꆫ2001쓪쫽뻝쯹맀쪹맀볆뷡맻룼뷓뷼쿖쪵ꆣ쏗샕2캬샕뗄햳탔볛룱쒿뇪쟸쒣볆돶뗄뷡맻룼뿉뾿ꆣꋚ쇭췢,쒣탍훐쯹쪹폃뗄듳뛠캪뛔쫽탍붨솢퓚볛룱햳탔뫍탨쟳뻶뚨닺돶뗈볙뚨믹뒡횮짏,틀뮯뇤솿,쟒쯹짦벰뗄쫽뻝튻냣뚼뷏킡,틲듋쫽뻝뒦샭랽램뗄뻝맺쓚믵뇒쫐뎡뫍짌욷쫐뎡뗄뻹뫢쳵볾,틔볛룱틲쯘캪늻춬뛔맀볆뷡맻펰쿬뷏듳ꆣ헢킩컊쳢짐탨튪뷸튻늽첽쳖ꆣ쯦믺뇤솿살붨솢쯦믺캢럖랽돌,듓뛸좷뚨믣싊몯쫽벰웤닎뾼컄쿗뷢ꆣ듓쒣탍삵틔붨솢뗄믹놾뻹뫢랽돌쪽뾴,쯼쏇쪵볊짏\[1]Edwards,S.(1989).RealExchangeRates,Devaluationand뷒쪾쇋훷튪뗄뫪맛뺭볃뇤솿횮볤뗄맘쾵ꆣ틲듋,틀뻝룃Adjustment:ExchangeRatePolicyinDevelopingCountries.쒣탍쯹뗃돶뗄믣싊췪좫싺ퟣ낮뗂뮪(Edwards)뗄뻹뫢믣Cambridge,MA:MITPress.싊뗄뚨틥ꆣ춬쪱,퓚샻폃쒣탍뷸탐볆쯣뗄맽돌훐,뇘탫쫗쿈뷧뚨믣싊퓊탭뢡뚯뗄쟸볤,헢랽쏦잡뫃랴펳쇋폐맜샭ꋙ헢샯컒쏇쎻폐뾼싇맺볊뺭볃뮷뺳뗄펰쿬,뷶뷶듓맺쓚뺭뗄뢡뚯믣싊훆뗄믹놾쳘헷ꆣ쯹틔,룃쒣탍뿋럾쇋믣싊뇤볃랢햹뗄뷇뛈살럖컶컊쳢ꆣ쒿잰맺볊짏돶쿖뗄튪쟳죋쏱뇒믣싊뮯뎬풽믹놾뺭볃틲쯘뇤뮯뫍쿖쪵믣싊뛠짙쫜떽믵뇒떱뻖짽횵뗄퇔싛,쪵볊짏쫇췢늿뛔죋쏱뇒쪩볓뗄톹솦ꆣ죧맻뷶뷶듓훐룉풤맺뺭볃랢햹튪쟳뾴,죋쏱뇒듦퓚뇡횵뗄쟣쿲폐웤뿍맛뺭볃믹뒡ꆣ(믲룉풤뷏퇏)뗈웤쯻랽램쓑틔뿋럾뗄쎬뛜ꆣꋚ퓚뻟쳥맀볆훐,컒쏇뛔솽헟뷸탐맽뛔뇈럖컶,ퟮ훕좷뚨쿖뷗뛎죋쏱뇒쪵탐뗄쫇폐맜샭뗄뢡뚯믣싊훆,쒿잰폃1991ꆫ2001쓪뗄쫽뻝ꆣ쯦ퟅ쪱볤뗄췆틆,튻룶쿠뛔뫏샭컈뚨뗄훐퇫틸탐뛔죋쏱뇒믣싊뢡뚯랶캧뷸탐쇋퇏룱뗄뿘훆ꆣ듓뺭볃쳥쾵믡훰늽탎돉,뷬쪱맀볆뷡맻뗄ힼ좷탔붫믡쳡룟ꆣ' 1995-2005 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
2004쓪뗚4웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ춳볆퇐뺿4ꆡꆡퟷ캪헾훎톧랽램싛뗄춳볆톧ꆪꆪꆪ춳볆퓚헾훎훐펦폃뗄퇐뺿3키뫬튶ꆡ컢뺴ABSTRACTTheauthorsexploretheobjectandscopeofapplicationofstatisticstopolitics,.ꆡꆡ맘볼듊:헾훎톧랽램싛;헾훎춳볆톧;춳볆펦폃ꆡꆡ춳볆톧ퟷ캪튻훖뿆톧뗄랽램싛,맣랺펦폃폚ퟔ좻ꆢ짧캧펦평헾훎톧훷쳢뷧뚨ꆣ믡ꆢ뺭볃뗈룷쇬폲뗄퇐뺿ꆣퟔ20쫀볍70쓪듺뾪쪼,춳볆11떱듺헾훎톧뗄퇐뺿뛔쿳:맺볒ꆢ헾뢮ꆢ릫쏱ꆢ쏱볤ퟩ랽램ퟷ캪헾훎믮뚯뗄쫽솿뮯퇐뺿릤뻟뗃떽쇋펦폃,늢훰횯뗈헾훎훷쳥벰웤헾훎탐캪뫍헾훎좨솦ꆣ늽랢햹돉캪헾훎톧퇐뺿랽램싛뗄훘튪ퟩ돉늿럖,듓뛸뾪21떱듺헾훎톧퇐뺿뗄믹놾컊쳢:헾훎좺쳥ꆢퟩ횯ꆢ헾쪼탎돉헾훎춳볆톧쳥쾵ꆣ떳헾훎ꆢ쏱ퟥ맺볒ꆢ헾뢮믺릹뫍헾뢮맜샭ꆢ헾훎컄뮯ꆢ헾훎ꆡꆡ튻ꆢ펦폃뛔쿳폫랶캧훆뛈폫믺훆ꆢ헾훎탐캪폫맘쾵ꆢ헾훎맽돌폫돌탲ꆢ헾훎헾ꆡꆡ떱듺컷랽헾훎톧쫇틔탐캪훷틥캪믹뗷뗄ꆣ탐캪훷틥3놾컄쫇훐맺죋쏱듳톧춳볆펦폃퇐뺿훐탄돐떣뗄뷌폽늿훘쫇틔헾훎믮뚯훷쳥뗄탐캪ퟷ캪퇐뺿뛔쿳듳뿎쳢ꆰ춳볆퓚짧믡뿆톧훐뗄펦폃퇐뺿ꆪ램싉ꆢ헾훎ꆢ탂컅ꆢ뷌폽ꆢ,훷튪쫇뺭퇩퇐컄쿗볆솿ꆢ싗샭톧ꆱ(02JAZJD910001)뗄ퟓ뿎쳢ꆰ춳볆퓚헾훎톧훐뗄뺿ꆣ틲듋웤뾴훘뛔탐캪뗄뿌뮭ꆣ춳볆랽램헽쫇펦탐캪훷펦폃퇐뺿ꆱ뗄돉맻횮튻ꆣ퓚뗚뻅뷬좫맺훐쟠쓪춳볆뿆톧퇐쳖믡,틥헾훎톧훷쳢뗄탨튪놻맣랺펦폃뗄ꆣ틲듋,춳볆퓚헾훎쳢탻뛁(2003111,컷낲)ꆣ훐펦폃뗄뛔쿳펦폫헾훎톧퇐뺿뛔쿳튻훂,웤펦폃퇐뺿랶\[2]Dornbusch,Rudiger(1976).ꆰꆫ.ꆱJournalofPoliticalEconomy,,De2\[7\]Sutherland,Alan.(1994).ꆰ:solutionsandtestableimplications.ꆱTheEconomic\[3\]Kempa,BerndandNelles,MichaelandPierdzioch,ChristianJournal,,ꆫ112.(1997).ꆰAnanalyticalapproximationoftargetzoneex2\[8\]Svensson,Lars(1992).ꆰAninterpretationofrecentresearchchangeratefunctions:thetechniqueofcollocation.ꆱEco2onexchangeratetargetzones.ꆱJournalofEconomicPer2nomicsLetters,,ꆫ,,ꆫ144.\[4\]Kempa,BerndandNelles,Michael(1999).ꆰThetheoryofexchangeratetargetzones.ꆱJournalofEconomicSurveys,ퟷ헟볲뷩,,ꆫ210.쿩쪤,쟥뮪듳톧뺭볃맜샭톧풺늩쪿뫳쇷뚯햾퇐뺿\[5\]Krugman,Paul(1991).ꆰTargetzonesandexchangeratedy2죋풱ꆣnamics.ꆱQuarterlyJournalofEconomics,,퇮ꆡ,쟥뮪듳톧뺭볃맜샭톧풺뷌쫚ꆣꆫ682.\[6\]Miller,MarcusandWeller,Paul(1991).ꆰExchangerate(퓰죎뇠벭:쪯쟬)bandswithpriceinertia.ꆱTheEconomicJournal,,' 1995-2005 Tsinghua Tongfang Optical Disc Co., Ltd. All rights reserved.
