ꆡ,2006뗚6쓪뗚3웚짏몣붻춨듳톧톧놨(헜톧짧믡뿆톧냦)14뻭(ퟜ49웚)JOURNALOFSJTU(PhilosophyandSocialSciences)SUM,짺듦럖컶벰웤펦폃:틔뒴튵퇐뺿캪샽컢ꆡ뇹(짏몣붻춨듳톧낲첩뺭볃폫맜샭톧풺,짏몣200052)ꆡꆡ햪ꆡ튪:놾컄춨맽뛔짺듦럖컶뗄뷩짜,닻쏷쇋짺듦럖컶뗄몭틥ꆢ쿠맘룅쓮뫍훷튪릫쪽,늢뛔짺듦럖컶뗄죽훖훷튪랽램뷸탐쇋뷩짜ꆣ춨맽럖컶짏몣룟탂벼쫵뒴튵웳튵뗄짺듦쫽뻝,랢쿖룟탂벼쫵뒴튵웳튵뗄짺듦폫뒴튵웳튵쯹뒦뗄탐튵ꆢ쫕죫ꆢ뒴튵헟뗄뷌폽쮮욽뫍튵폐쿔훸맘쾵ꆣ뛔Cox뇈샽럧쿕쒣탍뷸탐뗄볬퇩뇭쏷쒣탍쓢뫍솼뫃ꆣ맘볼듊:짺듦럖컶;Cox럧쿕뇈샽쒣탍;K2M맀볆훐춼럖샠뫅:F270ꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:Aꆡꆡꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:100827095(2006)0320063204ꆡꆡ짺듦럖컶쫇튻훖틔즾쪧쫽뻝캪퇐뺿뛔쿳뗄춳볆ꆡꆡF(t)횸룶쳥뗄짺듦쪱볤T뗄럖늼몯쫽ꆣ볙짨랽램,뷼쪮쓪풽살풽쫜떽죋쏇뗄맘힢ꆣ1986쓪쏀맺짺듦싊(survivalrate)폃S(tk)뇭쪾,횸룶쳥뺭샺tk맺볒뿆톧풺캯풱믡쳡돶뗄쫽톧랢햹룅뿶훐,냑짺듦룶떥캻쪱볤뫳죔듦믮뗄룅싊ꆣ죴컞즾쪧쫽뻝,퓲럖컶쇐캪쇹듳랢햹랽쿲횮튻,늢ퟷ캪쫽톧폫웤쯼톧뿆짵훁짧믡뿆톧뮥쿠째춸뗄튻룶훘튪샽횤[1]ꆣS(tk)=P(Tꇝtk)=맽쇋tk쪱뿌죔듦믮뗄룶쫽맛달뾪쪼쪱뗄ퟜ룶쫽짺듦럖컶쫇틔죋뿚짺쏼뇭캪믹뒡랢햹웰살뗄,웤훐t캪룶쳥뗄듦믮쪱볤,떫죧맻쇏훐몬폐즾쪧뒦샭쫕벯살뗄짺듦쫽뻝,짺듦쫽뻝냼삨짺듦쪱볤틔쫽뻝,짺듦싊뗄볆쯣릫쪽펦캪:벰폫웤쿠맘뗄틲쯘ꆣ짺듦럖컶맽좥퇐뺿뗄훷튪쇬폲쫇짺컯튽톧,뛸퓚릤튵ꆢ짌튵ꆢ짧믡뿆톧뗈쇬폲뗄펦S(tk)=P(Tꇝtk)=p1ꆤp2ꚫpk폃튲죕붥삩듳(M웤훐p1ꆢp2ꆢꆭꆢpk뇭쪾늻춬쪱볤뛎뗄짺듦룅싊,뿉oritaet,al.,1993)ꆣ떫쫇,퓚뒴튵퇐뺿쇬폲,짺듦럖컶죔쫇뿕냗ꆣ놾컄쫗듎붫짺듦틔뾴돶,헢훖쟩뿶쿂짺듦싊쫇뛠룶쪱뛎짺듦룅싊뗄럖컶펦폃폚뒴튵퇐뺿샛믽,맊폖돆캪샛믽짺듦룅싊(cumulativeprobabil2,첽쳖짺듦럖컶퓚뒴튵퇐뺿훐뗄펦폃ꆣityofsurvival)ꆣ(2)룅싊쏜뛈몯쫽(probabilitydensityfunc21.짺듦럖컶뗄몭틥tion),폖돆쏜뛈몯쫽,볇ퟷf(t),몯쫽뇭듯쪽캪:폐맘뚨틥(룶쳥퓚쟸볤(t,t+ꇷt)훐쯀췶)f(t)=lꇷimP듦쪱볤tϖ0ꇷ짺짺듦쪱볤(survivaltime)쫇횸듓쒳웰뗣뾪쪼떽ꆡꆡ(3)캣쿕싊놻맛닢뛔쿳돶쿖훕뗣쫂볾쯹뺭샺뗄쪱볤ꆣ죧뒴튵웳캣쿕싊몯쫽(hazardfunction)폖돆럧쿕몯쫽ꆢ튵쪼뒴떽뒴튵쪧냜뗈ꆣ평듋뿉볻,듋뒦뗄ꆰ짺듦ꆱ쫇캣쿕싊ꆢ쯀췶잿뛈ꆢ쳵볾쯀췶싊,볇ퟷh(t)ꆣ폃폚닢튻룶맣틥뗄룅쓮ꆣ솿튻뚨쓪쇤뗄룶쳥쫇럱죝틗쯀췶:짺듦쪱볤뎣폃쿂쇐죽룶몯쫽살쏨쫶:짺듦몯쫽ꆢ1룅싊쏜뛈몯쫽뫍캣쿕싊몯쫽ꆣh(t)=ꇷlim(쓪쇤쫇t뗄룶쳥쟸볤(t,t+ꇷt)훐쯀췶)tϖ0ꇷPt(1)짺듦몯쫽(survivalfunction)폖돆샛믽짺듦ꆡꆡ(4)죽헟뗄맘쾵싊,볇ퟷS(t),횸룶쳥짺듦쪱볤뎤폚t뗄룅싊,벴:짺듦몯쫽ꆢ룅싊쏜뛈몯쫽뫍캣쿕싊몯쫽퓚쫽톧S(t)=P(룶쳥짺듦쪱볤T>t)=1-F(t)짏쫇뗈볛뗄,뗃돶웤훐튻룶,뿉틔췆떼돶쇭췢솽룶,ꆡꆡ쫕룥죕웚:2006203217ꆡꆡퟷ헟볲뷩:컢ꆡ뇹(1978-),쓐,짏몣붻춨듳톧맜샭톧풺늩쪿퇐뺿짺ꆣ
ꆡ64ꆡ짏몣붻춨듳톧톧놨(헜톧짧믡뿆톧냦)뗚14뻭웤맘쾵캪:볙뚨폐튻룶믹ힼ럧쿕싊h0(t),퓚쪱뗣t쪱,쒳룶펰쿬틲쯘ꛖxi뻍쫇쪹룃믹ힼ럧쿕싊h0(t)퓶훁ꛂeii놶,벴h(t)=f(t)=f(t)S(t)1-F(t)뇈샽럧쿕쒣탍뗄믹놾뷡릹캪:짺듦쫽뻝뗄즾쪧xꛂ)h(t,X)=h0(t)ꆤ(e퓚짺듦럖컶훐,평폚퇐뺿뷡쫸쪱,쒳킩룶쳥뿉쓜뮹쎻폐돶쿖컒쏇맘탄뗄쫂볾ꆡꆡh0(t)쫇믹ힼ뗄짺듦럖늼캣쿕몯쫽,X캪풤뫳뇤,쓇쎴헢킩룶쳥뗄좷쟐짺듦쪱볤쫇늻횪뗀뗄,헢뻍떼훂짺듦쫽뻝듦퓚즾쪧솿쿲솿ꛂ,캪쾵쫽쿲솿,X=(1,x1,x2,ꆭ,xp)ꛂ,=쟩뿶ꆣ헽쫇평폚짺듦럖컶듦퓚ퟅ즾쪧쫽뻝,쪹뗃뒫(ꛂ0ꛂ,1ꛂ,2,ꆭꛂ,p)ꆣ춳뗄럖컶랽램뿉쓜퓚럖컶쪱돶쿖욫닮ꆣ짺듦쫽뻝튻(4)죽훖랽램뗄뇈뷏냣냼삨짺듦럖컶훐펦폃ퟮ뛠뗄뛠틲쯘럖컶랽램쫇Cox:쒣탍ꆣ뛸Cox쒣탍쫇튻훖냫닎쫽쒣탍,쯼쫇퓚볙뚨(1)췪좫쫽뻝(completedata):쫇횸놻맛닢뛔쿳뗄맛닢쫽뻝췪좫실폚맛달웰뗣훁훕뗣볤늻춬룶쳥뗄쯀췶럧쿕퓚쯹폐쪱볤짏뚼놣돖튻룶뫣뚨;뗄뇈샽뗄쳵볾쿂쳡돶뗄,떫쫇쪵볊쟩뿶뛠늻쓜싺ퟣ(2)즾쪧쫽뻝(censoreddata):냼삨ퟳ즾쪧뫍폒즾쪧ꆣ튻냣뎣볻뗄쫇폒즾쪧,쯼쫇횸퓚돶쿖훕뗣헢룶쳵볾;짺쏼뇭램쫊폃폚쫽뻝내쟸볤럖ퟩ믲헟듳쫂볾잰퇹놾,틔벰컞램ힼ좷뗃횪퇐뺿뷡맻돶쿖쪱볤뗄쟩뿶,,놻맛닢뛔쿳뗄맛닢맽돌평폚룷훖풭틲훕횹쇋ꆣ폒즾쪧훷튪폐3훖쟩뿶Kaplan2Meier램훷튪폃폚튻룶룶뗄룶쳥쫽뻝,뛸럇:럖ퟩ쫽뻝,떫쫇떱쎿룶럖ퟩ쟸볤횻냼몬튻룶쫽뻝쪱,a.쪧럃:횸쪧좥솪쾵,죧뒴튵웳튵냡잨뛸쪧좥솪쾵K2M랽램뿉뾴ퟷ쫇짺쏼뇭럖컶뗄쳘샽ꆣ;b.췋돶:횸췋돶퇐뺿,죧틲웤쯻풭틲ꆢ쇙쪱룄뇤2.퓚뒴튵퇐뺿훐뗄펦폃랽낸뛸훐춾췋돶퇐뺿;c.훕횹:횸퇐뺿쪱쿞틑떽뛸훕횹맛달ꆣ짺듦럖컶쫇틔즾쪧쫽뻝캪퇐뺿뛔쿳뗄ꆣ뒴튵퇐뺿훐짦벰뒴튵웳튵뗄짺듦ꆢ돉릦폫쪧냜ꆢ뒴튵틲쯘뗈럖컶랽램쒿잰컊쳢,뒴튵웳튵뗄짺듦쪱볤죧뫎,짺듦싊쯦쪱볤죧뫎,짺듦럖컶뗄믹놾랽램듳쳥짏폐짺쏼뇭럖컶ꆢKaplan2Meier럖컶ꆢCox믘맩쒣탍뗈ꆣ뇤뮯,뫎훖틲쯘펰쿬뒴튵웳튵뗄짺듦,헢뚼쫇짺듦럖컶뗄훷튪쓚죝ꆣ헢킩컊쳢폃뒫춳뗄믘맩럖컶뷸탐퇐(1)짺쏼뇭럖컶짺쏼뇭램(L뺿,뿉쓜듦퓚탭뛠컊쳢,틲캪뒴튵웳튵뗄쫙쏼쫽뻝튲ife2TableMethod,볲돆LT램)쫇춨맽볆쯣실죫쪱볤쟸볤쫇즾쪧쫽뻝,뒫춳뗄믘맩럖컶뒦샭즾쪧쫽뻝듦퓚뷏[tk21,tk]쓚뗄쪧킧뫍즾쪧뗄맛달룶쫽살맀볆룃쟸볤짏뗄쯀췶룅싊듳욫컳,틲듋짺듦럖컶펦폃폚뒴튵퇐뺿쫇쿠떱폐폃,좻뫳폃룃쟸볤벰웤횮잰룷쟸볤짏뗄짺듦룅싊횮믽살맀볆S뗄ꆣ캪쇋쮵쏷짺듦럖컶퓚뒴튵퇐뺿훐뗄펦폃,놾컄(tk)ꆣ틔Cox뇈샽럧쿕쒣탍캪샽뷸탐뷩짜ꆣ(2)Kaplan2Meier맀볆폖돆돋믽벫쿞램(Product2LimitMethod,볲돆쫽뻝벰웤럖컶PL램(1)쫽뻝살풴),쫇Kaplan폫Meier폚1958쓪쳡돶뗄ꆣ쯼뿉틔퓋폃즾쪧쫽뻝붨솢쪱볤2쫂볾쒣탍,룹뻝쎿튻룶놾컄쫽뻝살풴폚짏몣1985쓪훁2005쓪룟탂벼쫂볾랢짺쪱볤뗣뗄쳵볾룅싊뗄맀볆뫍쫂볾쿠펦뗄룅쫵뒴튵웳튵,춨맽뛔715볒룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄ힷퟙ뗷싊뗈탅쾢살맀볆쎿튻룶쪱뗣뗄짺듦싊ꆣ닩,듓훐돩좡쇋454볒놾뿆뫍듳뷌폽쮮욽뒴튵헟(3)Cox믘맩럖컶뗄룟탂벼쫵웳튵뒴튵쇏,뻟쳥쫽뻝쟩뿶죧쿂:쫇튻훖듦퓚즾쪧쫽뻝쟩뿶쿂쓢뫏쪱볤2쪱볤쒣뇭1ꆡ쫽뻝쟩뿶탍뗄튻훖랽램ꆣCox믘맩쒣탍훐뿉냼몬풤닢뇤솿(킭뇤솿),떱훚뛠뗄캣쿕틲쯘뛔짺듦쪱볤폐펰쿬쪱탔뇰뷌폽쮮욽12놾뿆02듳뫏볆,02쓐274(228)101(68)375펦맘탄헢웤훐쓄킩캣쿕틲쯘뛔짺듦쪱볤폐훘튪뗄펰12얮63(53)16(8)79쿬뫏볆337117454,튲뻍쫇좷죏훘튪뗄풤뫳틲쯘,춨맽붨솢짺듦쪱볤쯦캣쿕틲쯘뇤뮯뗄믘맩쒣탍,살좷뚨헢킩뛔짺듦쪱힢:삨뫅훐캪즾쪧쫽뻝볤폐펰쿬뗄풤뫳틲쯘,늢룹뻝캣쿕틲쯘퓚쒣탍훐뗄룹뻝Gartner(1985)뗄럖샠[2],놾컄붫뒴튵짺듦펰쿬뛔짺듦싊뷸탐풤닢ꆣ퓚Cox뇈샽럧쿕쒣탍훐,뗄펰쿬틲쯘럖캪솽듳샠:룶쳥틲쯘뫍췢늿틲쯘ꆣ룶
ꆡ2006쓪뗚3웚컢ꆡ뇹ꆡ짺듦럖컶벰웤펦폃:틔뒴튵퇐뺿캪샽ꆡ65쳥틲쯘냼삨:탔뇰ꆢ쓪쇤ꆢ뷌폽쮮욽뫍쯹톧튵쟩뿶;쫵뗄뒴튵헟,평폚뛔ퟔ짭튵뗄쫬쾤,뷏죝틗캬돖룟췢늿틲쯘캪:쯹뒦뗄탐튵ꆢ쓪쫕죫(좡ퟮ뫳튻쓪뗄쫕벼쫵웳튵뗄짺듦ꆣ뛔폚쎻폐뷸죫쒣탍뗄뇤솿,죧탔죫)ꆢ뒴튵닺뗈ꆣ캪쇋솿뮯럖컶,놾컄내헕짏몣춳뇰뫍쓪쇤,뇭쏷룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄뒴튵늻쫜쓪쇤뫍탔볆쓪본뗄탐튵럖샠뫍탐튵퓶뎤쯙뛈,뷡뫏퇐뺿쒿뗄,뇰뗄펰쿬,믲헟쮵펰쿬럇뎣킡,뛸뒴튵놾펰쿬늻쿔붫룟탂벼쫵웳튵럖엤떽13룶탐튵훐,죧:볆쯣믺쿠훸,뿉쓜쫇평폚룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄춶닮뇰늻쿔훸,쮵맘탐튵ꆢ짺컯훆튩탐튵뗈,붫탐튵뇤솿내헕탐튵퓶쯙쏷뒴튵놾뛔룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄짺듦쎻폐첫듳펰쿬ꆣ틀듎짨뚨캪쮳탲뇤솿ꆢ탔뇰뫍뷌폽쮮욽쪹폃퇆뇤솿,쯤좻Cox쒣탍늻탨튪럧쿕몯쫽뗄쿞뚨,쫇뺭퇩뇤솿듺싫죧짏뇭쯹쪾ꆣ튵쟩뿶룹뻝쯹톧튵폫탐슳냴(robust)뗄짺듦럖컶랽램,떫쫇쯼볙짨뛔쯹폐튵튻훂폫럱훘탂뇠싫캪튵럻뫏돌뛈,쪹폃퇆뇤솿:뗄쒿뇪,럧쿕몯쫽쫇믹ힼ럧쿕몯쫽뗄뎣쫽돋믽믲헟0뇭쪾튵폫탐튵늻럻뫏,1듺뇭럻뫏ꆣ웤훐,뷌폽뇈샽,캪쇋뇜쏢컳폃,뛔뇈샽럧쿕볙짨뗄볬퇩쪮럖뇘쮮욽ꆢ튵럻뫏돌뛈틔벰닺쟩뿶뻹틔웳튵뒴솢횮튪[3][4](볻뇭3)ꆣ돵뗄쫽뻝캪ힼ,틲듋놾컄뗄럖컶훷튪붨솢퓚틲쯘뗄뇭3ꆡ뇈샽럧쿕볙짨뗄볬퇩뺲첬럖컶믹뒡횮짏ꆣvariablesrhochwasqp(2)쫽뻝럖컶뛔쫽뻝붨솢Cox쒣탍(볻뇭):뇭2ꆡCox뇈샽럧쿕쒣탍(time,censored)ꆫindustry+income+capital+sex+age++major)(coef)se(coef)ꆡꆡ뺭맽볬퇩,퓚1%뗄쿔훸탔쮮욽쿂,Cox뇈샽럧쿕쒣탍볙짨돉솢ꆣ.뷡싛ꆡLikelihoodratiotest=85ꆡon7df,p==454놾컄춨맽뛔짏몣룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄짺듦럖컶랢(333p<.001ꆡ33p<.01ꆡ3p<.05)쿖,룟탂벼쫵뒴튵웳튵뗄짺듦폫뒴튵웳튵쯹뒦뗄탐뿉볻튵ꆢ쫕죫ꆢ뒴튵헟뗄뷌폽쮮욽뫍튵폐쿔훸맘쾵ꆣ쯤,돽IndustryꆢIncomeꆢDegree뫍Major췢,웤폠뇤솿쿔훸탔뷏뗍(p>)ꆣ쮵쏷탐튵ꆢ쫕좻Gartneretal.(1998)죏캪,퓚뒴튵횮돵폐ퟅ룼뛠죫ꆢ뷌폽쮮욽뫍튵뛔뿚폫럱뛔룟벼쫵웳튵폐쿔훸횪쪶뫍쓜솦뗄뒴튵헟늢늻퓚짺듦쿂살뗄웳튵훐,뒴펰쿬ꆣ뻟쳥살쮵,탐튵뗄횸쫽쾵쫽캪0튵뾪쪼쪱뒴튵헟뗄횪쪶뫍쓜솦늻쓜풤닢웳튵뗄돉릦.926,뇭쏷풽쫇뒦폚퓶뎤탔탐튵샯뗄룟벼쫵뒴튵웳튵믲헟쪧냜,떫쫇놾컄뗄럖컶뇭쏷,뒴튵돵웚뒴튵헟뗄,웤짺듦싊튲풽룟,헢폫틔잰뗄퇐뺿늻쒱뛸뫏,벴퓚퓶뎤탔탐튵횪쪶(틔뷌폽쮮욽캪뇤솿)뛔룟탂벼쫵뒴튵웳튵좷쪵뒴튵뗄웳튵룼죝틗듦믮(;Me듦퓚ퟅ쿔훸펰쿬,뿉틔뛔뒴튵웳튵뗄짺듦뷸탐풤닢ꆣrri2컄헂춨맽뛔쒣탍볙짨뗄볬퇩횤쏷,Cox(럖닣)쒣탍field1987;Stuart&Abetti1987;);럧쿕몯쫽뗄쫕죫횸쫽쾵쫽풼캪1,쮵쏷퓚웤쓢뫏솼뫃,뛔룟벼쫵웳튵쫇쫊뫏뗄ꆣ쯻틲쯘늻뇤뗄쟩뿶쿂,쫕죫쎿퓶볓튻룶떥캻(잧풪),닎뾼컄쿗:럧쿕몯쫽폐킡럹복짙(쯤좻복킡벫짙짵훁믹놾늻뇤)ꆣ헢쮵쏷쫕죫뛔뒴튵헟뮹쫇뇈뷏훘튪,쫕죫쳡[1]ꆡ퇮웜열.춳볆펦볓잿짺듦럖컶뗄뷌톧폫퇐뺿[J].즽컷닆뺭듳룟톧톧놨(룟뗈뷌폽냦),2002,(4):59ꆫ68.,웳튵짺듦럧쿕붵뗍ꆣ뛔뷌폽쮮욽살쮵,웤횸쫽쾵[2]ꆡGartnerWB,StarrJA,쫽캪,쮵쏷퓚웤쯻틲쯘놣돖늻뇤뗄쟩뿶쿂,뷌vival:Ananalysisofꆰanatomyofastart2upꆱCasesFromInc.폽쮮욽풽룟,짺듦캣쿕풽뗍,헢뇭쏷,룟탂벼쫵웳튵Magazine[J].JournalofBusinessVenturing,1998,(14):탨튪룟뷌폽쮮욽뗄죋닅,풽쫇뷌폽쮮욽룟뗄뒴튵헟2152232.,웤룟탂벼쫵웳튵뗄짺듦싊풽룟ꆣ뛔튵럻뫏돌뛈살[3]ꆡMoritaJG,LeeTW,뾴(쿂뗚75튳),웤횸쫽쾵쫽캪,쮵쏷튵럻뫏뒴튵웳튵벼
ꆡ2006쓪뗚3웚튦뻽쾲ꆡ컒맺떱듺짧믡뗄뒫능쪧뫢ꆡ75TheUnevenDevelopmentofCommunicationinContemporaryChinaYAOJun2xi(SchoolofMediaandDesign,ShanghaiJiaotongUniversity,Shanghai200240,China)ꆡꆡAbstract:,althoughtheliteratureofgeneralmasscommunicationinChinahasbeengrowingrapidly,,,thecommunicationoppositioninsocialgroups,:masscommunication;communicationdifferentiation;communicationconflict;communicationunevendevelop2ment(짏뷓뗚65튳)RegressionModel[J].Biometrika,1982,(69):2392241.ꆡꆡ[5]ꆡGreenSG,WelshMA,,Perform2toSurvivalAnalysis:ASelectedApplicationtoTurnoverRe2search[J].AcademyofManagementJournal,1993,36(6)ance,andThresholdInfluencesonDecisionstoTerminateNew:143021464ProductDevelopment[J].AcademyofManagementJournal,.[4]ꆡ,46(4)::EntrepreneurialResearchesbeinganExampleWUBing(AntaiSchoolofEconomics&Management,ShanghaiJiaotongUniversity,Shanghai200030,China)ꆡꆡAbstract:Thearticleintroducessurvivalanalysis,explainingthemeaning,conceptionsandmainequationsofsurvivalanal2ysis,,ꆯ:high2techventure;survivalanalysis;Coxproportionhazardsmodel;K2Mmethod(짏뷓뗚69튳)OnHowRenaissancePhilosophyAffectstheOriginofModernScienceWANGYin(SchoolofHumanities,ShanghaiJiaotongUniversity,Shanghai200030,China)ꆡꆡAbstract:,,asarevolutionaryreplacementoftheMiddleAgeideology,,:scientificsubject;scientificpraxis;mathematicalontology
