၂Tpೆwರᄎࣜ࠶ࠊᄎᇛሇਈa.ᄎൻࡎ۬აݓࣜ࠶֥ܱ༢१աൾօn,ྒ့n,ૼ2.(!ഈݚ۽ն࿐ܵ࿐ჽ,ഈݚ.200095;2ᆄࡾ໑ᇜۖຖ۽ӱሦ࿘ࡓႵཋ܄ඳ,໑ᇜ325000)ᅋေ:ᄝؓࠊᄎᇛሇਈaᄎൻࡎ۬აݓࣜ࠶֥ٳ༅ࠎԤഈ,࿊౼ݓ!978၂2bb6୍֥ൌ࠽ඔऌ,ؓэਈᆭࡗ֥ܱ༢ࣉྛਔླྀᆜٳ༅,ࡹ৫ਔ༂ҵྩᆞଆ,࿙ᆀᆭࡗ֥؋௹ѯބӉ௹नޙܱ༢,๙ݖGrangerၹݔܱ༢ဒᆀ֥ၹݔྟbࢲݔіૼ:ࠊᄎᇛሇਈaGDൃބᄎൻࡎ۬ᆭࡗթᄝື၂֥ླྀᆜܱ༢bࠊᄎᇛሇਈ൞GDൃބᄎൻࡎ֥۬GrangerჰၹaGDൃ൞ᄎൻࡎ֥۬GrangerჰၹbܱՍ:ࠊᄎᇛሇਈ;ླྀᆜ;༂ҵྩᆞଆ;Grangerၹݔܱ༢ᇏٳোݼ:ె40໓ངѓ്၂၂၂:A໓ᅣщݼ:16713400(2007)12011103TheDynamicRelatonsihiPonFreightࢺrnoverVolume,GDPandTansrPortatoniPrceieϫshu၂dl,anLlxiՉ၂yel,HuAM၂aomnigZ..(1Coen,llgeofManagemtUnversiietyofShanghaiforSeeineancdTeehnoo,,lgyShanghai200()93Chnai:2WቦnzhouGangw..an,PeeteonsuroltnigCoL,julWnzhou,325000Chnai)Absrac:ttOnanalyZnigFreightTurnoverVOulme,GDPsandTanrPortatonipree,၂iinryAsolthrtheEtegrationtheoabliroCoetoniModesoke၂reltoolforthesho၂,ᇝ:Freighttuo၂nrnovervoulm:Citegratoni:Eroreoetmoeredel;GrangercausalrealtonsihiPᇛሇਈ֥ؿᅚ൝,࿙ᅳࠊᄎؿᅚაࣜ࠶ؿᅚᆭࡗ֥O܆Iܿੰbෛሢࣜ࠶֥ؿᅚ,ݓ֥ࠊᄎ൧ӆ္֤֞ਔ٦֥ؿᅚbᄝ࣮ᇏݓࠊᄎ൧ӆ໙ีൈ,ᇶေၛࠊᄎᇛሇਈa1ࠊᄎᇛሇਈaᄎൻࡎ۬აݓࣜ࠶֥ൌᆣٳGDPބᄎൻࡎູ࣮۬ؓའ,Ⴈൈࡗਙٳ༅ᇏ֥ླྀᆜ༅ંބ༂ҵྩᆞଆটҀԮ࠹ਈࣜ࠶ٚ૫֥҂ቀ.,11эਈ࿊ᄴაඔऌԩؓࠊᄎᇛሇਈaᄎൻࡎ۬აGDPэਈᆭࡗࡹ৫Ӊ௹नູิۚࡹଆ֥ሙಒྟ,Ч໓ҐႨ1978୍ᇀ2006୍ޙa؋௹ѯࠣ༂ҵྩᆞ֥ଆbࣉ၂҄ਔࢳݓࠊᄎඔऌቔູဢЧඔऌb1978୍ᇀ2004୍֥ඔऌটჷႿuᇏݓ࠹୍,2005)}2005୍ބ2006୍֥ඔऌটჷႿᇏದ܋ބݓݓࡅ࠹अຩᅟm,nb൬۠ರ௹:2007၂09၂17ቔᆀࡥࢺ:աൾօ,୯,ᆄࡾুౢದ,ഈݚ۽ն࿐ණൖ࣮ള(l)Ⴈࠊᄎᇛሇਈսіݓࠊᄎ൧ӆ֥ؿᅚሑঃb,ᇶေ࣮ٚཟ:ႋႨ࠹bࠊᄎᇛሇਈ൞ᆷ၂קൈ௹ଽᄎൻࠊაఃཌྷႋᄎൻएࠎࣁཛଢ:ᇏݓ۽ӱჽᇗׄཛଢ(2006၂x၂1֥;ഈݚ൧ሱಖ॓࿐֥Ӱࠒᆭሹބ,࠻ॉ੮ਔࠊᄎൻ֥ඔਈ,Ⴛॉ੮ਔᄎࠎࣁ(06ZR14144;)ഈݚ൧ᇗׄ࿐॓ࡹഡb(TosoZ)ൻए,ିܔࢠಆ૫ֹุགྷݓࠊᄎ൧ӆ֥ؿᅚሑঃb
wwೆwwl࿊౼ࠊᄎᇛሇਈটّ႘ࠊᄎ൧ӆᄎൻളӁӮݔ֥ᆷѓ,ؓൈࡗਙࣉྛADFဒ,ᄝᇌު௹֥࿊౼ഈၛ࠺ູFSCr(ֆ໊:ၡtkmb)ᆴ࣐ॖିཬ,ၛࠣҵٳཛ༢ඔ֥ཁᇷྟඣ࣐ॖିۚ(2)ႨݓଽളӁሹᆴGDPսіݓࣜ࠶֥ؿᅚඣbູჰᄵbࣜݖ൫ဒ,֒ᇌު௹p=lൈ,ဒٚӱ֥SCᆴႮۄՖ࠹୍ഈ֤֥֞GDPඔऌ൞୍֒ࡎ۬,Ч໓ቋཬ,Վൈ֥ဒࢲݔіb1Ⴈၛ1950୍ູࠎ௹֥ಆݓഅਬ൲ࡎ۬ᆷඔؓGDPࣉіa1logGDpIogFTބIogp֥ֆ໊۴ဒࢲݔྛԩ,ཨԢࡎၹ֥႕ཙ,֤֞ၛ1950୍҂эࡎ۬ဒэਈဒোADFਢࢸᆴіൕ֥GD,P࠺ູG(ֆ໊:ၡჭb)࠹ਈ(5%)(3)ᄎൻࡎ۬ҐႨಗਘ֥ࡎ۬ᆷඔቔູࡎ۬ၹؓඣLogGDP(C,T,၂.၂.l)2697535875ࠊᄎླ֥႕ཙbޅࢌ๙ٚൔေၛಗਘູ৯,ಗ,၂.ਘ֥ࡎ۬ᆰࢤ႕ཙ֞ᄎൻࡎ۬ඣbႨಗਘࡎ۬սูᄎཛLogPr(CT,၂.l),၂.gP(CT,၂l)2015835875ൻࡎ۬ၛษંࡎ۬ྟ֥ቔႨ,࠺ູbP၂ࢨD(LogGDP)(C,N,၂.*m၂.1)2901026299.,2ֆ໊۴ဒDູਔЌᆣඔऌ֥ॖбྟѩಸၞ֤֞໗ਙطཨԢҵٳogFT)(C,N,၂,..*၂l)477082976263D.*.၂.(LogP)(N,N,၂l)2435019544ॖିթᄝ֥ၳٚҵ,ؓჰඔऌ౼ሱಖؓඔԩbඔऌᇿ:(l)cіൕࢩएཛ,Tіൕ൝ཛ,Nіൕ҂ջႵ൝ཛ,֥ሱಖؓඔэߐ҂ڿэჰট֥ླྀᆜܱ༢,ѩି൝ཌওݼଽֻཛіൕ෮ҐႨ֥ᇌުࢨඔ;ྟ߄b(2)ᇌުࢨඔ۴ऌSCྐ༏ሙᄵಒק;эߐު֥эਈٳљႨolgGQapoolgFTބlgpіൕb(3p)ބnoٳљіൕᄝ5%ބ1b%֥ཁᇷྟඣ༯ऋधჰࡌഡ,ࠧൈࡗਙ൞໗ݖӱblt)gGDaPfogFTބlogPႵ҂؎ᄹӉ֥൝,эٚཟࢠູ၂ᇁ,іགྷԛ၂ᇕ҂໗֥หྟb၂ࢨҵٳު֥эADFဒࢲݔཁൕ,GaDPࠊᇛሇਈބᄎൻࡎ۬ਈٳљႨDaolgGDolgFTބDolgPটіൕ,၂ࢨҵٳэ֥ඣᆴ൞҂໗ק֥,൞ࣜݖ၂ࢨҵٳުॖၛྙߐުэਈ֥ൈࡗਙэ֤ࢠູ໗,ႵϢᄮല֥หᆘbӮ໗ק֥ਙb෮ၛGDaPࠊᇛሇਈބᄎൻࡎ۬൞၂ࢨֆᆜ֥,ູࠧI(l)ݖӱbਙᆺႵᄝ၂ࢨ໗่֥ࡱ༯,Ҍିࣉྛླྀᆜٳ༅ླྀᆜဒႮֆ໊۴ဒॖᆩ,olgGDapolgFTބolgpݣႵཌྙ൝ཛބӈඔཛbཌྷႋ֥ླྀᆜٚӱ္ႋݣཌྙ൝ཛބӈඔཛb֒Ӊ௹ଆᇏႵ2۱ၛഈэਈൈ,ླྀᆜܱ༢ࣼॖି҂ᆸ၂ᇕbJohanseބJusehusl,]ิԛਔႨࠞնරಖܙ࠹টဒ؟эਈᆭࡗླྀᆜܱ༢֥ٚم,๙ӈӫູJohansenဒbJohansenဒ൞၂ᇕࠎႿཟਈሱ݂߭ଆ֥ဒٚم,ᄝࣉྛဒᆭభ,сྶಒקཟਈሱ݂߭ଆ(VAR)֥ࢲܒbЧ໓ҐႨ۴ऌAICބSCሙᄵಒקഈඍVARٚӱ֥ቋႪᇌު௹ඔ,ࣜݖ؟Ց൫ဒಒקቋႪᇌު௹൞b2ဒࢲݔೂі2෮ൕbі2Johansenဒࢲݔטᆜު֥ဢЧࡗ:1981၂2006൝ࡌഡ:ಒק൝(൳ᇅӈඔ)ᇌުࡗۯ(၂ࢨҵٳ:)l֞2٤ཋקྟླྀᆜᇇဒࡌק֥หᆘᆴቋնหᆘ5%ਢࢸཌྷϴۀੱCEඔਈᆴ࠹ਈᆴ....Noneቁ05913113266601297970700227A......ostZ0ᓾ403201050333841466074591ࠊᄎᇛሇࠩaG0ൃބᄎൻࡎ֥۬ؓඔൈࡗਙބ၂ࢨҵٳਙᇿ:mіൕᄝ5%֥ཁᇷඣ༯ऋधჰࡌഡ
၂Twೆwರᄎࣜ࠶і2֥ࢲݔіૼ,ࠊᄎᇛሇਈaGDPބᄎൻࡎ۬ᆃൔᇏ3۱эਈᆭࡗթᄝື၂֥ླྀᆜܱ༢ࠧӉ௹नޙܱ༢bؓླྀ၂.ᆜཟਈቓѓሙ߄ԩުECogFT၂5,ླྀᆜٚӱॖၛіൕູ405061848ollgGDP:M=l॓6.+027336ollgP(3).o၂.lgFT=5॓64()5᧹.618418olgGDP027336ollgP(l)Фࢳэਈ֥ѯॖၛٳູ2۱҆ٳ:၂҆ٳ൞؋..(0093018)(0153484)...=()968471Fؽ00000()0Dਟ0280535௹ѯ,၂҆ٳ൞Ӊ௹नޙbଆᇏ֥ҵٳّ႘ਔэਈ؋..௹ѯ֥႕ཙb۴ऌଆ,༵ؓૄ۱эਈ౼ᇌު2௹SEᇜࡹ৫ཌྷႋ֥༂ҵྩᆞଆ,ಖުஆԢ҂ཁᇷ֥эਈ,ቋܙ࠹༢ඔ༯ওݼᇏ֥ඔᆴ൞༢ඔѓሙҵ֥ܙ࠹,Ⴎᇔ֤֞ೂ༯֥༂ҵྩᆞଆbٚӱॖၛुԛ,۲۱эਈᄝླྀᆜܱ༢ൔᇏ൞ཁᇷ֥bٚӱߎіૼࠊᇛሇਈބݓࣜ࠶൞ٚཟэ,طაᄎԫogFTၛ.)033628᧹.208191¶1091.+{)142625ogGDPൻࡎ۬ӯགྷ֥൞ّٚཟэܱ༢b(4)...ྩᆞު֥ࢤ࣍Ⴟ,(0015657)(0127123)(0114533)1іૼଆ֥ކིݔ٤ӈݺ;၂ଢ.0017943ogGDP၂ה.737233െၘב-Fဒ֥ཌྷϴۀੱູ,ّ႘эਈࡗӯۚ؇ཌྟ,..݂߭ٚӱۚ؇ཁᇷ.(0094269)(0119969),;DIF0280535ؓႿnؽ,29pؽ2ൈ.RZ....Ұі=()658928ّ2=()596915SE=()ဒ֥1%ਢࢸᆴູ൦..,=l321ބఠ1001۴DऌקمᄵҗҵਙթᄝᆞሱཌྷܱbູਔяૼٚӱWؽ.1507367Fؽ.0000060(l)۲эਈᆭࡗ൞ڎթᄝӉ௹໗קܱ༢,ߎေؓҗҵࣉྛֆ໊Ֆّ႘ࠊᄎᇛሇਈࠣః႕ཙၹ؋௹э߄֥༂ҵྩ۴ဒ,֤֞іb3ᆞٚӱটु,ࡎ۬ၹᄝ؋௹ٚӱᇏؓࠊᄎᇛሇਈ֥႕і3җҵࣉྛֆ໊۴ဒཙ҂ཁᇷ,ܣՖٚӱᇏಀԢbٚӱߎіૼ:؋௹ݓࣜADFဒᆴཁᇷඣਢࢸᆴ࠶֥э߄ࡼႄఏࠊᄎᇛሇਈ֥ٚཟэ,ೂݔGDPэ߄1%,ႄఏࠊᄎᇛሇਈэ߄%bಖط,ᄎൻࡎ၂.3243706l%CnteailVaue*၂.l373785֥۬э߄აࠊᄎᇛሇਈӯགྷ֥൞ّٚཟэܱ༢bೂݔ.5%Crue၂iteialVal299188ᄎൻࡎ۬э߄1%,ႄఏࠊᄎᇛሇਈэ߄.17943%bECMཛ༢ඔ֥նཬّ႘ਔؓொӉ௹नޙٚӱ֥טᆜ৯؇,10%Critcailaue၂.l263554Ֆྩᆞ֥ॖथ༢ඔބDWဒᆴॖၛקଆऎႵਅݺADF࠹ਈ൞၂.,3243706ཬႿ5%ඣ༯֥ਢࢸ֥ކིݔbᆴ၂.,ᆃࣼඪૼҗҵਙ൞໗֥,҂թᄝֆ໊15Grangerၹݔٳ༅۴b෮ၛݓ֥ࠊᄎᇛሇਈaGDPބᄎൻࡎ۬֩ၹᆭ൞ڎӫxl൞༓,֥Grangerჰၹ,ु؟նӱ؇ഈ༓,ିࡗթᄝӉ௹नޙܱ༢,ࠧླྀᆜܱ༢bႮݖಀᆴࢳ,ၛࠣ൞ڎᄹࡆxl֥ᇌުᆴିڿؓ,y֥.14༂ҵྩᆞଆࢳbೂݔxl֥ݖಀᆴႵᇹႿყҩy,ࠇᆀ֩ࡎ,x,֥ᇌ༂ҵྩᆞଆ֥ቔႨᄝႿ҂၇ঠႿଖུࢳэਈ,ުཛ༢ඔ൞ཁᇷ֥,ᄵӫxt൞yrt֥Grangeჰၹm4b]๙طᆺ൞၇ौࢳэਈაၹэਈᆭࡗӉ௹ܱ༢֥ொҵၛࠣݖؓ۲۱эਈࣉྛGrangreၹݔܱ༢ဒটಒקૌᆭࡗؓၹэਈ֥טᆜ,ьॖࢳࣜ࠶ᇏ҂эਈᆭࡗ֥Ӊ௹֥ཌྷ႕ཙܱ༢bႮႿGrangerၹݔဒؓэਈ֥ᇌު໗קनޙܱ༢ࠣఃሱദ֥э߄ݖӱbt3lཛႵޓ఼֥ૹۋྟ,ၹՎҐႨ҂֥ᇌުӉ؇ࣉྛ൫ဒ,ᄝླྀᆜဒࠎԤഈ۴ऌ༂ҵྩᆞଆ(ECM)ؓࠊၛಒྐࢲં൞҂၇ঠႿଆ֥bᄎᇛሇਈaGDPބࠊᄎࡎ۬ࣉྛ؋௹ބӉ௹֥नޙܱ༢Ֆі4ॖၛुԛ,ᄝ5%֥ཁᇷྟඣ༯,ႮႿཌྷٳ༅,ॖႨটّ႘эਈᆭࡗႮ؋௹ѯཟӉ௹नޙטᆜϴۀੱູ..,,001404004524ބ001912෮ၛ,ऋध֥ݖӱbႮႿࠊᄎᇛሇਈaGDPބࠊᄎࡎ۬ᆭࡗթoLOGFT҂ିGrangerႄఏLoGGDPpaoLOGFT҂ିᄝື၂֥ླྀᆜܱ༢,ࣼॖၛࡹ৫Їও༂ҵྩᆞཛᄝଽ֥GrangerႄఏLOpGPބoLOGGDP҂ିGrangerႄఏ༂ҵྩᆞଆ,ট࣮ଆ֥؋௹หᆘb༂ҵྩᆞLOGpP֥ჰࡌഡ,ಪູսіࠊᄎ൧ӆؿᅚ֥ࠊᄎᇛሇਈଆ֥၂Ϯྙൔູ:൞GDPބᄎൻࡎ֥۬Grangreჰၹ,սіݓࣜ࠶ؿᅚԫo֥GDP൞ᄎൻࡎ֥۬GrangreჰၹbᆃඪૼၛࠊᄎਈູgF҂=ࠫ+,௯ൃljԫog+FTt-jറലa¶o,gG,-j(2)սі֥ࢌ๙ᄎൻြିܔᆜ۱ݓࣜ࠶֥ؿᅚ,ಖުగሦ1ຣ֗उogpa+֗mEcӬ.1+o,ݓࣜ࠶ؓࢌ๙ᄎൻြ֥ঘቔႨѩ҂ཁᇷ,іૼࢌ๙
wಥϖwರႶ๙νಆіa4logGDPolgFTބIogP֥Grangerၹݔܱ༢ჰࡌഡᇌު௹F࠹ਈO܆Pᆴ}LOGGDP҂ି..3114755035547୍࣍ট,ݓ֡ਫ਼ࢌ๙ؿᅚ,նᇏӬ൧చӚЌGrangerႄఏLOGסႵਈބ֡ਫ਼ࢌ๙ࠤखᄹࡆ,Ֆط֝ᇁࢌ๙൙ܣഈശ,ࢌ๙ߌರၭذ߄,LOGFT҂ି..Gr4001404range45889Ӭ൧֡ਫ਼ࢌ๙൙ܣၘӮູӬ൧֥ᇶႄఏLOGGDPေ܄ݝbೂޅႋႨ༵ࣉ֥ܵٚمބඌ,ิۚӬ൧֡ਫ਼ࢌ๙νಆܵඣ,..LOGP҂ିGࡨഒӬ൧ࢌ๙൙ܣ,൞ն҆ٳӬranger3053502066387ႄఏLOGFT൧૫ਢ֥ᇗေ໙ีb..LOGFr҂ିGrangre3236370045241ႄఏӬ൧֡ਫ਼ࢌ๙൙ܣӮၹٳ༅LOGP..LOGP҂ିGranger3053086066656ࢌ๙൙ܣ൞ᄝหק֥ࢌ๙ߌ႕ཙ༯,ႮႿದaӚaႄఏLOGGDPਫ਼ބߌᇭေކാטಖؿള֥bၹՎ,ٳ༅ࢌ๙҂ି.421752001912൙ܣӮၹቋᇶေ֥൞ٳ༅ದaӚaਫ਼ࠣߌؓࢌ๙൙ܣGrangerႄఏLOGPྙӮ֥႕ཙbದ,ᇶေЇও֡ਫ਼ഈ֥ྛದބӚਇࡐჴ,൞֡ਫ਼ࢌᄎൻြ֥ಒ൞ᆜ۱ݓࣜ࠶֥༵ྛܲm51b๙ေᇏ֥ᇶุbӚ,ᇶေ൞ᆷࠏӚa٤ࠏӚࠣҗࠥದህႨӚ֩,൞ࢌ๙൙ܣ֥ᇶေၹb֡ਫ਼൞ࢌ2ࢲં๙ุ༢ᇏ֥сေ่ࡱᆭ၂,ܒӮࢌ๙൙ܣсေ่ࡱ֥ߌЧ໓ࠎႿླྀᆜં,ؓݓ֥ࠊᄎླࣉྛਔླྀᆜ၂ϮФӫູࢌ๙൙ܣ֥Ⴚؿ่ࡱԫbٳ༅,ࡹ৫ਔّ႘ࠊᄎᇛሇਈaGDPބᄎൻࡎ۬ᆭࡗ֥ದ൞ࢌ๙൙ܣ֥ᇅᄯᆀ,ದ֥ۋᆩհ༂a؎აथҦӉ௹नޙܱ༢֥ླྀᆜٚӱބ૭ඍࠊᄎᇛሇਈႮ؋௹ѯհ༂ࠣࡐҠቔհ༂֩ݖാྛູ൞ᄯӮࢌ๙൙ܣ֥ᇶေཟӉ௹नޙטᆜ֥ݖӱ֥༂ҵྩᆞଆbٳ༅ࢲݔჰၹ,ၹದ֥ၹᄯӮ֥൙ܣᅝࢌ๙൙ܣሹඔ֥.9530%bіૼ:ࠊᄎᇛሇਈaGDPބᄎൻࡎ۬ᆭࡗթᄝື၂֥ླྀӚਇၹႄఏ֥ࢌ๙൙ܣູࠏྀ൙ܣ,ఃᇶေჰၹ൞Ⴎᆜܱ༢b؋௹ݓࣜ࠶֥э߄ࡼႄఏࠊᄎᇛሇਈ֥ٚႿᇅ༢ބሇཟ༢ܣᅰ,ၹӚਇᇅބሇཟ༢ܣཟэ,ಖطᄎൻࡎ֥۬э߄აࠊᄎᇛሇਈӯགྷ֥൞ّᅰᄯӮ֥൙ܣᅝࠏྀ൙ܣሹඔ֥%b֡ਫ਼ၹႄఏٚཟэܱ༢bࡎ۬ၹ֥טᆜؓࠊᄎ႕ཙ҂ն,҂ݖ֥ࢌ๙൙ܣ၂Ϯ൞ႮႿӬ൧֡ਫ਼ഡ࠹҂ղѓaਫ਼૫ॖၛ০Ⴈࡎ۬ၹ,ؓݓݖഺ֥ࠊᄎླࣉྛൡ֥֒ၛࠣ֡ਫ਼ࢌҭ֩ჰၹᄯӮb[2]ޡܴט॥bၛࠊᄎਈູսі֥ࢌ๙ᄎൻြିܔᆜ۱ଢభ,ݓӬ൧ࢌ๙νಆܵ,ᇶေߎ൞ၛᄹ఼ಆݓࣜ࠶֥ؿᅚ,ಖުݓࣜ࠶ؓࢌ๙ᄎൻြ֥ঘቔ֥ࢌ๙νಆمܿၩ്aປνಆ֡ਫ਼ࢌ๙ഡീaิۚӚႨѩ҂ཁᇷbႿՎ,ေ࣐ॹࡆ఼ࢌ๙ᄎൻࠎԤഡീ֥ਇྟିࠣࡆ఼֡ਫ਼ົ֩ٚ૫ູᇶ֥Фνಆܵbၹି৯,ၛൡႋݓݓࣜ࠶٦ؿᅚ֥ေbՎ,ᆌؓӬ൧֡ਫ਼ࢌ๙൙ܣ֥Ӯၹ,০Ⴈགྷսྐ༏ა๙༵֩ࣉඌn,ܒࡹӬ൧֡ঔ๙ᇶνಆܵ༢,ҕॉ໓ང:ؓႵི॥ᇅބࡨഒࢌ๙൙ܣ֥ؿളऎႵᇗေၩၬb[l]httP://www...ॖnidexhtm[DB~2.ࠎႿITS֥Ӭ൧ࢌ๙νಆ॥ᇅ༢֥ۿି12o]Jhansen,SJuseusliKMaximumlikelinoodestimaontiandniferenceoneonitegratoniwithᓽpeonliatitodemandforrs(IntelligentTeraSystemfi)൞ದૌࡼ༵ࣉ֥ྐ༏.mn,,eeonooy[J]oxfordBaenolltifEmesiandstatstesii1990ඌaඔऌ๙ྐԮൻඌaሰ॥ᇅඌaԮۋఖඌ၂.52:169210ၛࠣ࠹ෘࠏԩඌ֩ႵֹིሸކᄎႨႿᆜ۱ᄎൻุ༢,,[3]EngleRObertF,၂nteigratonanidErroՖطࡹ৫ఏ֥၂ᇕᄝնٓຶଽaಆ໊ٚؿߨቔႨ֥ൌൈa..Ceon,catio[J]Eonocmetri1987:၂(55)76251ሙಒaི֥ۚᄎൻሸކܵ༢bൗࢸ۲ݓᄝؿᅚᇆିre[4]ࢌ๙༢ൈ,ࡼೂޅЌᅰࢌ๙νಆቔູఃᇏ֥၂ཛᇗM.,,odesanldcrosssPeoeonometriec1tralmethdsIJ](l:)424၂38൬۠ರ௹:200ਔ၂11၂13[51ਾࡹ఼,ޅࣟ.ࢌ๙ᄎൻြაݓࣜ࠶ؿᅚ֥ൌᆣ࣮.IJ]ቔᆀࡥࢺ:ဗৡڿ,(!982၂)୯,ݱቂ,ފКᅵཅದ,ᇗ౩ࢌ๙նࢌ๙ᄎൻ༢۽ӱაྐ༏,၂.2o2(2:)9286࿐ࢌ๙ᄎൻ࿐ჽᄝණൖ࣮ള,ᇶေ࣮ٚཟ:ࢌ๙νಆb
