뗚22뻭뗚5웚(ퟜ뗚125웚)ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ쾵ꆡ춳ꆡ릤ꆡ돌,쓪5퓂ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡSystemsEngineeringMay.,2004ꆡ컄헂뇠뫅:100124098(2004)0520039205쮫맑춷웳튵훷뚯뾪랢탂닺욷믲뾽놴쪽쒣럂뗄늩?럖컶Ξ췵ꆡ엳(맣훝듳톧뺭볃폫맜샭톧풺,맣뚫맣훝ꆡ510091)햪ꆡ튪:훷뚯뾪랢탂닺욷,뮹쫇뗈듽웤쯻웳튵쿈뾪랢돶살탂닺욷좻뫳뷸탐쒣럂쫇웳튵R&D뗄튻룶햽싔컊쳢ꆣ놾컄퓚튻뚨쪱볤쟸볤쓚뿍뮧쫇훒돏뗄볙짨쿂,럖뇰볆쯣훷뚯뾪랢뫍뗈듽쒣럂퓚췪좫탅쾢뚯첬뫍늻췪좫탅쾢뚯첬솽훖쟩뿶쿂쮫랽뗄샻죳뫍샻죳뻹뫢뗣,룸돶웳튵뷸탐탂닺욷뾪랢믲뷸탐뾽놴쪽쒣럂늩?뗄솿뮯릫쪽ꆣ맘볼듊:탂닺욷뾪랢;쒣럂;늩?훐춼럖샠뫅:F272ꆡꆡꆡ컄쿗뇪쪶싫:A믡훐뒴탂폫쒣럂뮥쿠듙1ꆡ틽퇔쇋싊쿈뒴탂헟뗄벼쫵ꆣ퓚쿖쪵짧뷸,뮥캪늹돤ꆣ웳튵캪쇋놣돖웤퓚쫐뎡훐뗄뺺헹폅쫆,뻍튪늻뛏뗘훷뚯뾪랢뮹쫇룺쯦쒣럂쫇훘튪뗄웳튵R&D햽싔,폐뷸탐벼쫵뒴탂ꆣ캪듋맘헢랽쏦뗄퇐뺿폐뫜뛠ꆣ놾컄싛쫶쮫맑춷웳튵훷뚯뾪랢탂,맘폚R&D뗄퇐뺿풽살풽쟷쿲짮죫ꆣ벼쫵뒴탂내뒴탂뷸죫쫐뎡뗄쪱볤쿈뫳럖캪싊쿈뒴탂폫쒣닺욷믲뷸탐뾽놴쪽쒣럂뗄늩?컊쳢ꆣ폫럂뒴탂솽훖믹놾샠탍(1981),(1988),뫍,싊쿈뒴탂뗄웳튵뷸죫쫐뎡퓧,튻냣뿉틔믱뗃뷏룟뗄쫐뎡럝뛮뫍욷없폅쫆;춬쪱,닺솿믽샛쇬(1994)벰(2000)뗈톧헟퇐뺿뗄훷튪쟸뇰쫇놾쿈폚뫳살헟쓜릻폅쿈믽샛짺닺벼쫵뫍맜샭랽쏦뗄뺭퇩컄퇐뺿뗄웳튵짺닺뗄닺욷쫇훐볤닺욷,늢볙짨솽룶웳튵뗄,쿈폚뫳살헟믱좡돉놾폅쫆ꆣ떫싊쿈뒴탂웳튵튪쏦쇙벼쫵ꆢ뿍뮧퓚튻뚨쪱볤쟸볤쓚뛔룷ퟔ뗄릩펦짌(컄훐뗄짏폎웳쫐뎡ꆢ춶뫍램싉뗈럧쿕ꆣ쒣럂뒴탂쫇횸웳튵춨맽톧쾰쒣튵)쫇훒돏뗄ꆣ뇊헟뛔웳튵샠탍쯹ퟶ뗄쿞뚨늻쫇룹놾탔뗄,럂싊쿈뒴탂헟뗄뒴탂쮼슷뫍뒴탂탐캪,컼좡싊쿈뒴탂헟볙짨퓚튻뚨쪱볤쟸볤쓚뿍뮧캪웳튵뗄훒돏탔닅쫇훘튪뗄ꆣ돉릦뗄뺭퇩뫍쪧냜뗄뷌통,웆틫믲틽뷸릺싲싊쿈뒴탂헟죧맻퓚ퟮ훕닺욷쫐뎡짏,뿍뮧(믲쿻럑헟)퓚튻뚨쪱볤쟸볤뗄뫋탄벼쫵뫍벼쫵쏘쏜,짺닺돶퓚탔쓜ꆢ훊솿ꆢ볛룱뗈랽쓚뛔욷없(믲웳튵)쫇훒돏뗄,퓲놾컄쯹붨솢뗄늩?쒣탍춬쏦뻟폐뺺헹솦뗄닺욷ꆣ쒣럂뒴탂웳튵뗄R&D춶뻟폐룟퇹쫊폃ꆣ뛈뗄랽쿲탔ꆢ벯훐탔뫍헫뛔탔,늻뷶뿉틔듳듳붵뗍웳튵R&D뗄럧쿕,뛸쟒듳듳쳡룟쇋웳튵R&D춶죫닺돶뗄킧2ꆡ믹놾볙짨싊ꆣ떱좻,쒣럂뒴탂뗄웳튵뷸죫쫐뎡췭,탨튪쏦쇙싊쿈뒴볙짨1:솽웳튵AꆢB췪좫슢뛏쒳튻쫐뎡,쫐뎡퓚죎뫎탂헟짨훃뗄룷훖헏낭,틔벰뿉쓜뗄쫐뎡럝뛮뫍돉놾쇓쫆ꆣ쪱뗣뗄탨쟳솿캪Q,솽웳튵욽럖쫐뎡럝뛮ꆣ쒣럂뒴탂폐뛠훖뛠퇹뗄뇭쿖탎쪽,내쒣럂뒴탂뛔쿳벼쫵볙짨2:늻쪧튻냣탔,짨A웳튵쫗쿈훷뚯퇐랢탂닺욷,뗄쿈뷸돌뛈,뿉붫쒣럂뒴탂뮮럖캪뛔쿈떼벼쫵ꆢ돉뎤벼퇐랢돉놾캪Ik,퇐랢훜웚캪Lk,탂닺욷뷸죫쫐뎡뗄쪱볤캪쫵ꆢ돉쫬벼쫵뫍쮥췋벼쫵뗄쒣럂뒴탂ꆣ뛔쿈떼벼쫵뗄쒣럂풭뗣(t=0);B웳튵뗈듽A웳튵탂닺욷뷸죫쫐뎡뫳,뾼싇뒴탂쫇횸룹놾탔싊쿈뒴탂닺짺뫳솢벴룺쯦쒣럂,듋샠쒣쫇럱뷸탐뾽놴쪽쒣럂뾪랢ꆣ죧뻶뚨쒣럂,퓲퓚b쪱뿌뾪쪼럂뷏뛠랢짺폚벼쫵쪵솦쿠떱믲닮뻠늻듳뗄웳튵횮볤;내뷸탐,쒣럂돉놾캪Im,쒣럂뾪랢쪱볤탨Lm.쒣럂뒴탂뛔싊쿈뒴탂뗄쒣럂돌뛈,뿉럖캪뾽놴쒣럂뫍뒴볙짨3:솽웳튵A뫍B퓚탂닺욷췆돶잰풭살짺닺뗄닺탂쒣럂,잰헟횸췪좫헕냡싊쿈뒴탂헟뗄벼쫵,뫳헟횸룄뷸욷(틔쿂볲돆풭닺욷)쫇춬훊ꆢ춬볛뫍춬돉놾뗄;평폚튻웳Ξ쫕ퟷ룥헟죕볲웚뷩:2004202212;탞뚩죕웚:2004203229:췵엳(19552),쓐,맣훝듳톧뺭볃폫맜샭톧풺뢱풺뎤,컷쓏붻춨듳톧늩쪿퇐뺿짺,퇐뺿랽쿲:쫐뎡펪쿺,맜샭뺭볃톧뗈ꆣ' 1994-2008 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
40쾵ꆡ춳ꆡ릤ꆡ돌ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2004쓪튵훷뚯뾪랢쇭튻웳튵뷸탐뾽놴쪽쒣럂,쯹틔탂닺욷튲쫇T,퓲B붫뚪뗴늿럖쫐뎡,뛸평볙짨7,헢쫇웳튵B늻쓜춬훊ꆢ춬볛뫍춬돉놾뗄ꆣ짨떥캻풭닺욷뗄볛룱ꆢ돉놾뫍샻죝죌뗄,쯹틔컒쏇횻탫뾼싇B쒣럂쟒쒣럂쯹탨쪱볤Lm죳럖뇰캪PoldꆢCold뫍Rold=Pold-Cold;떥캻탂닺욷뗄볛ꇜT뗄쟩뿶ꆣ죧B쒣럂,퓲풽퓧쒣럂풽뫃,떫캪쇋붫컊쳢룱ꆢ돉놾뫍샻죳럖뇰캪PnewꆢCnew뫍Rnew=Pnew-Cnew.럖컶뗄룼볓짮뿌,짨B퓚b뗣뾪쪼뷸탐뾽놴쪽쒣럂뾪랢,볙짨4:탂닺욷뇈풭닺욷폐폅쫆ꆣ헢룶볙짨폐쮫훘몬퓚b+Lm뗣쒣럂돶탂닺욷늢뷸죫쫐뎡ꆣ뛸b+LmꇜT.헢틥:튻쫇뛔폚뎧볒뛸퇔,떥캻탂닺욷뇈풭닺욷샻죳룟,벴쪱A뗄뿍뮧퓚0-1Q,f뾪쪼훰붥쪹폃탂닺욷,삩즢R2new>Rold;뛾쫇뛔뿍뮧뛸퇔,탂닺욷뇈풭닺욷룼쫜뮶펭ꆣ볙짨5:탂닺욷뷸죫쫐뎡뫳퓚뿍뮧훐훰붥삩즢ꆣ짨삩몯쫽캪y=f(x),퓚-1Qf,L좫늿쪹폃탂닺욷;뛸2즢몯쫽캪y=f(x)=fA(x),f쫇떥뗷퓶몯쫽,쟒f(0)=B뗄뿍뮧퓚\[0,b+Lm]뷗뛎죔쪹폃B뗄풭닺욷,퓚0ꆣ웳튵B쒣럂뾪랢탂닺욷,웤삩햹몯쫽캪y=f(x-Lm)b+Lm,b+Lm+-1Qf뾪쪼훰붥쪹폃탂닺욷,삩즢=2fB(z)ꆣ볙짨6:웳튵A뾪랢돶탂닺욷,죴웳튵B늻쒣럂,믲죔몯쫽캪y=f(x-b-Lm),퓚b+Lm+-1Qf,L뷗뛎2캴쒣럂돶살,퓲웳튵B뗄뿍뮧퓚쪱뗣T뾪쪼틢쪶떽탂닺좫늿쪹폃탂닺욷ꆣ닎볻춼1뫍춼2,폐:욷뗄폅풽탔,튲뾪쪼닉폃웳튵A뗄탂닺욷ꆣ뛸B뗄뿍뮧튻떩쪹폃웳튵A뗄탂닺욷퓲퓚탂닺욷쫙쏼훜웚쓚돉캪웳튵A뗄뿍뮧ꆣ볙짨7:웳튵A뫍B뗄쫗튪죎컱뻹캪놣컀쫐뎡늻쫜쇭튻룶웳튵뗄쟖쪴,퓚듋쳵볾쿂닅쫇톰쟳쫕틦룼룟ꆣ훐볤닺욷뗄짺닺짌럇뎣힢틢뺡튻쟐뿉쓜늻쪹뿍뮧쇷쪧ꆣ쯹틔헢룶볙짨폐럇뎣룟뗄쿖쪵틢틥ꆣ춼1ꆡ웳튵A뗄탂닺욷춶폫쫐뎡삩즢춼볙짨8:탂닺욷뗄쫙쏼훜웚캪Lꆣ탂닺욷쫙쏼훜웚듓웳튵A뗄탂닺욷뷸죫쫐뎡쪼뾪쪼볆쯣,탂닺욷쫙쏼훕횹뗄풭틲뿉쓜쫇뛠훖뛠퇹뗄,죧룃쫐뎡췢뗄쇭튻쫐뎡룼뻟폅쫆뗄쳦듺닺욷쟖죫룃쫐뎡뗈ꆣ볙짨9:웳튵B듽웳튵A뗄탂닺욷뷸죫쫐뎡뫳랽횪웳튵A뾪랢쇋탂닺욷ꆣ볙짨10:틔짏쯹폐볙짨훐쳡벰뗄쫽ퟖ뫍몯쫽뗈캪웳튵A뫍웳튵B쯹릲횪ꆣ3ꆡ췪좫탅쾢뚯첬쳵볾쿂뾪랢ö쒣럂춼2ꆡ웳튵B쒣럂탂닺욷뗄춶폫쫐뎡삩햹춼웳튵샻죳뫍샻죳뻹뫢뗣럖컶짨웳튵A뫍B뗄샻죳럖뇰캪ΠAnew뫍ΠBnew,퓲폐:ΠAnew=Πnew(3)ꆡꆡꋙ죴솽웳튵A뫍B뻹늻뾪랢탂닺욷,퓲퓚\[0,L]쟸볤쯻쏇폐쿠춬뗄샻죳Πold,쿔좻ꆡΠBnewꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ:Q=Rold(b+Lm)ΠQ2old=(Pold-Cold)L2Q=Rꆡ+Rnewꇒb+Lm+-1Qf()2f(x-b-Lm)dxoldL(1)2b+Lmꆡꆡꋚ죴웳튵A뫍B춬쪱떥뛀뾪랢탂닺욷,퓲쯻쏇뗄뿍ꆡQ+L-1Q-b-Lm-f뮧뻹퓚220-1Q,f뾪쪼훰붥쪹폃풭웳튵뗄탂닺욷,삩2-1Q즢몯쫽캪ꆡf()2Q+Rolꇒb+Lm+d-f(x-b-Lm)dxy=b+Lf(x),퓚-1Qf,L좫늿쪹폃탂닺욷ꆣ튲m22폐쿠춬뗄샻죳Πꆡ-Im(4)new:ꆡꆡ쿂쏦컒쏇쟳돶쪹솽웳튵샻죳뻹뫢뗄뗣b.평폚퓚쪱뗣Πnew=Rnewꇒ-1Qf()2Q-1Qf(x)dx+L-f022b+Lm+-1Qf틔뫳솽웳튵뗄샻죳쿠춬,틲듋컒쏇횻탨21Q()2Q+Rolꇒ-fd-f(x)dx-Ik(2)볆쯣솽웳튵듓풭뗣떽쪱뿌b+L-1Qm+f룷ퟔ뗄샻죳ꆣ022ꆡꆡꋛ죴A뾪랢,뛸B늻쒣럂믲틲캪쒣럂쯹탨쪱볤Lm>틲캪:' 1994-2008 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뗚5웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ췵엳:쮫맑춷웳튵훷뚯뾪랢탂닺욷믲뾽놴쪽쒣럂뗄늩?럖컶41Q)ꆡꇒ-1f(2ꋛ탂닺욷뷸죫쫐뎡뫳,퓚삩즢뷗뛎평폚룷훖풭틲뿍뮧랢쿖f(x)dx0뮹늻죧풭닺욷뫃,쯹틔죔폃믘풭닺욷,헢쪱웳튵B벺횪웳Q()2=ꇒb+Lm+-1f튵A뗄탂닺욷벺뺭컊쫀,늢폐늿럖뿍뮧뾪쪼쪹폃,떫뮹늻f(x-b-Lm)dxb+Lm쓜풤볻웤돉냜,횻횪뗀웤돉릦뗄룅싊캪p1뫍늻돉릦뗄룅ꆡꇒ-1Qf()2Q싊(1-p1),캪쇋늻즥쪧쫐뎡뇘탫뾪쪼뷸탐뾽놴쪽쒣럂,떱-f(x)dx02좻웤탂닺욷튲믡쪧냜ꆣ맊웳튵B뾽놴쪽쒣럂뗄웚췻샻죳EΠBnew캪:=ꇒb+Lm+-1Qf()2Q-f(x-b-Lm)dxb+Lm2ꆡEΠBnewꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ쇮ΠAnew=ΠBnew,평(2)뫍(4)폐:=p1ΠBnew+(1-p1)(Πold-Im)QQRQnew(b+Lm)-Ik=Rold(b+Lm)-Im22=p1Rold(b+Lm)2쯹틔ꆡ+p1Rnewꇒb+L-1Qm+f()2f(x-b-Lm)dxIk-Imb+Lb=mQ-Lm(5)(Rnew-Rold)2ꆡQ+L-b-L-1Qm-fꆡꆡ짏쪽뇭쏷,죴탂닺욷퓚웳튵A뗄뿍뮧훐삩즢뗄몯쫽22폫퓚웳튵B훐삩즢뗄몯쫽쿠춬,퓚늻뾼싇믵뇒쪱볤볛횵ꆡ+L1Qm+-f()2Q+p1Rolꇒbd-f(x-b-Lm)dx뗄쟩뿶쿂,샻죳뻹뫢뗣폫삩즢몯쫽컞맘ꆣb+Lm2떱b=0쪱(쫂쪵짏퓚헢룶쪱뿌B좡뗃뗄쫕틦듳폚퓚ꆡQ-p1RoldL2b>0쪱뿌ퟅ쫖쒣럂좡뗃뗄쫕틦),폐:QꆡQ+RoldL-Im(8)2Ik-Im=(Rnew-Rold)Lm(6)2ꆡꆡ쇮EΠAnew=EΠBnew,평(7)ꆢ(8)솽쪽,뗃:4ꆡ늻췪좫탅쾢뚯첬쳵볾쿂뾪랢öQQp1Rnew(b+Lm)-Ik=p1Rold(b+Lm)-Im쒣럂웳튵샻죳벰샻죳뻹뫢뗣럖컶22쯹틔ꆡꆡ(1)퓚짏쏦뗄쳖싛훐,컒쏇볙짨탂닺욷뾪랢쫇돉릦뗄,Ib=k-ImQ-Lm(9)떫쫂쪵짏탂닺욷뾪랢뿉쓜돉릦튲뿉쓜쪧냜ꆣ쿖볙짨탂닺욷p1(Rnew-Rold)2뾪랢돉릦뗄룅싊캪p1,늻돉릦뗄룅싊캪(1-p1)ꆣ짨뾪랢돉ꆡꆡ(2)죴웳튵A뾪랢탂닺욷뗄춶폐룟(I1k)뫍뗍(I2k)릦웳튵A뗄샻죳캪ΠAnew,뾪랢쪧냜A웳튵죔짺닺쿺쫛풭솽훖뿉쓜,룟춶뗄룅싊캪p2,뗍춶뗄룅싊캪(1-p2)ꆣ닺욷,떫쯰쪧쇋탂닺욷뾪랢뗄춶,쯹틔웤샻죳캪Πold-폫쪽(7)샠쯆,뿉뗃웳튵A뾪랢탂닺욷뗄웚췻샻죳,쇮Ik.맊웳튵A뾪랢탂닺욷뗄웚췻샻죳EΠAnew캪:EΠꆡAnew=ΠBnew,폐:EΠAnewꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡQQ=Rpnew(b+Lm)-EIk=Rold(b+Lm)-Im1ΠAnew+(1-p1)(Πold-Ik)22Q()2웤훐=p1Rnewꇒ-1fQf(x)dx+L-1Q-f022EIk=p2I1k+(1-p2)I2kQ)ꆡ2Q쯹틔+p1Rolꇒ-1f(d-f(x)dx02EIb=k-ImQ-Lm(10)ꆡQ-p1RoldL(Rnew-Rold)22ꆡQꆡꆡ(3)짨B웳튵늻룒뿏뚨쏾럂쪱볤Lm뗄뎤뛌,뷶룹뻝+RoldL-Ik(7)2틔췹뺭퇩횪뿉쓜탨뷏뎤쪱볤L1m뗄룅싊캪p3,뷏뛌쪱볤ꆡꆡ평폚웳튵B쫇뷸탐뾽놴쪽쒣럂,쿔좻,죴웳튵A뾪랢L2m뗄룅싊캪(1-p3),퓲뿉쟳돶B웳튵쒣럂뗄웚췻샻죳,뗄탂닺욷쫇돉릦뗄,평볙짨4횪B웳튵죴쓜뾽놴쪽쒣럂쇮ΠAnew=EΠBnew,폐:돶살,웤닺욷튲튻뚨쫇돉릦뗄;죴웳튵A뾪랢뗄탂닺욷쪧QQ냜Rnew(b+ELm)-Ik=Rold(b+ELm)-Im,퓲럖죽훖쟩뿶:ꋙ탂닺욷퓚퇐랢뷗뛎뻍쪧냜쇋,헢쪱웳22튵B룹놾늻횪뗀웳튵A퓸뺭퇐랢맽,쯹틔뻍첸늻짏쒣럂웤훐쇋;ꋚ탂닺욷쯤좻뾪랢돶살쇋,떫뷸죫쫐뎡뫳늻쫜뿍뮧뮶ELm=p3L1m+(1-p3)L2m펭,늢쟒B웳튵십짏횪뗀쇋헢룶탅쾢,붫늻퓙뷸탐쏾럂;쯹틔' 1994-2008 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
42쾵ꆡ춳ꆡ릤ꆡ돌ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ2004쓪I샭,B믡뗈듽A쿈뾪랢ꆣ헢쪱뗄쓉쪲뻹뫢캪(뗈듽,뗈듽);b=k-ImQ-ELm(11)(Rnew-Rold)2죴b<0,벴QIk-Im<(Rnew-Rold)Lm,틠벴Lm>T,죴웳2ꆡꆡ(4)짨B웳튵늻룒뿏뚨쏾럂쯹탨춶Im뗄듳킡,뷶룹튵B늻쓜퓚웳튵A뗄탂닺욷뷸죫쫐뎡잰뻍횪뗀A벺뺭뾪뻝틔췹뺭퇩횪뿉쓜탨뷏듳춶I1m뗄룅싊캪p4,뷏킡춶쪼퇐랢탂닺욷벰뾪랢탂닺욷뗄쏘쏜,퓲폐쿈랢폅쫆,훷뚯I2m뗄룅싊캪(1-p4),퓲뿉볆쯣돶B웳튵쒣럂뗄웚췻샻뾪랢뇈뾽놴쪽쒣럂폐샻ꆣ떱솽룶웳튵뚼횪뗀헢훖쟩뿶쪱,죳,쇮Π쓉쪲뻹뫢캪(뾪랢,뾪랢)ꆣAnew=EΠBnew,뗃:Ik-EIm(2)늻췪좫탅쾢뾪랢ö뾽놴쪽쒣럂뚯첬늩?(럖늻춬쟩b=Q-Lm(12)(R뿶럖컶)new-Rold)2쪽훐ꋙ솽웳튵뻹횪탂닺욷뾪랢돉릦뗄룅싊캪p1,늻돉릦뗄룅싊캪(1-p1)ꆣ틲캪(Rnew-Rold)Lm>p1(Rnew-EIm=p4I1m+(1-p4)I2mꆡꆡ(5)짨웳튵퓚뾪랢잰늻쓜좷뚨탂닺욷뗄샻죳Rold)Lm,헢뗈볛폚룸뗈듽뾽놴쪽쒣럂뗄웳튵룼뛠뗄뾼싇Rnew=쪱볤,퓚웤쯻튪쯘늻뇤뗄쟩뿶쿂,횻튪퓊탭(웤쫐뎡늻놻Pnew-Cnew뺿뺹폐뛠짙,뷶룹뻝틔췹뺭퇩횪Rnew뷏룟쟖쪴)웳튵B쟣쿲폚뺡뿉쓜췆동쒣럂뗄쪱볤,틔믱좡탂닺(Rnew1)뗄룅싊캪p5,뷏뗍(Rnew2)뗄룅싊캪(1-p5),퓲뿉볆쯣돶뾪랢ö욷쫇럱돉릦뗄룼뛠탅쾢;뛸웳튵A퓲룼늻풸틢훷뚯뾪랢;쏾럂웳튵뗄웚췻샻죳,쇮EΠAnew=EΠBnew,볇ꋚ뾪랢탂닺욷탨튪룟춶뗄룅싊캪p2,뗍춶뗄룅싊캪ERmew=p5Rnew1+(1-p5)Rnew2,퓲폐:(1-p2)ꆣ죴10<p2<,평(10)쪽횪웳튵A룼풸틢훷뚯뾪Ik-Im2b=Q-Lm(13)(ERnew-Rold)2랢,쟒쇴룸웳튵B뷸탐쒣럂뗄쪱볤풽뛌;죴1<p2<1,웳2ꆡꆡ(6)죴틔짏p1,p2,p3,p4,p5쫇뛀솢뗄,퓲퓚춬쪱뾼싇튵A퓲쟣쿲폚늻훷뚯뾪랢;ꋛ쏾럂쯹탨뷏뎤쪱볤L1m뗄룅짏쫶컥훖쟩뿶쪱폐뾪랢ö뾽놴쪽쒣럂샻죳뻹뫢뗣릫쪽(췆싊캪p3,뷏뛌쪱볤L2m뗄룅싊캪(1-p3)ꆣ죴10<p3<,평떼싔2):(11)쪽횪뛔웳튵B룼폐샻,웳튵훷뚯뾪랢탂닺욷뗄믽벫탔쿂붵;죴1<p3<1,퓲뛔웳튵B늻샻,웳튵훷뚯뾪랢탂EIk-EIm2b=Q-ELm(14)닺욷뗄믽벫탔짏짽;ꋜ쒣럂쯹탨뷏듳춶I1m뗄룅싊캪p4,p1(ERnew-Rold)2뷏킡춶1I2m뗄룅싊캪(1-p4)ꆣ죴0<p4<,평(12)쪽횪25ꆡ뾪랢폫뾽놴쪽쒣럂늩?럖컶뛔웳튵B룼폐샻,웳튵훷뚯뾪랢탂닺욷뗄믽벫탔쿂붵;죴샻폃룷웳튵뗄샻죳쪽뫍샻죳뻹뫢뗣,컒쏇벴뿉뷸탐쮫1<p4<1,퓲뛔웳튵B늻샻,웳튵훷뚯뾪랢탂닺욷뗄믽2랽뗄뚯첬늩?럖컶ꆣ벫탔짏짽;ꋝ탂닺욷뗄샻죳뷏룟뗄룅싊캪p5,뷏뗍뗄룅싊쫗쿈,컒쏇힢틢떽죴ΠnewꇜΠold(탂닺욷쫙쏼훜웚뛌믲뾪랢탂닺욷춶룟),뛸A뾪랢(쫔춼쟖쪴B뗄쫐뎡믱좡캪(1-p5)ꆣ죴10<p5<,평(13)쪽횪뛔웳튵A늻샻,웳2룼룟뗄쫐뎡럝뛮),퓲B뇘탫뷸탐쒣럂,럱퓲믡쪧좥쫐뎡ꆣ튵훷뚯뾪랢탂닺욷뗄믽벫탔쿂붵;죴1<p5<1,퓲뛔웳튵떫늻맜2B뫎쪱뾪쪼쒣럂웤쯹뗃떽뗄샻죳ퟜ쫇킡폚Πnew뗄,쯹틔죴A뾪랢,B뗄ퟮ폅닟싔튲쫇뾪랢,떫틲캪A폐샻,웳튵훷뚯뾪랢탂닺욷뗄믽벫탔짏짽;ꋞ웤쯻쟩뿶,Πnewꇜ컒쏇뿉틔틔짏쫶컥훖쟩뿶뗄늻춬ퟩ뫏튻듎뾼싇뛠훖에뛏,Πold,쟒웳튵A뫍웳튵B뻹횪뗀헢튻쫂쪵,쯹틔(늻뾪랢,늻뾪랢)돉캪캩튻뗄쓉쪲뻹뫢ꆣ죧평(14)쪽횪,죴1111<p1<1,0<p2<,<p3<1,2222쿂쏦짨Π1new>Πold.헢쪱,솽웳튵뗄닟싔쫇훷뚯뾪랢ö<p4<1,<p5<1,벴뛔탂닺욷뾪랢돉릦뗄냑컕듳,뛔탂2뾽놴쪽쒣럂?닺욷뾪랢쯹탨춶뷏킡뗄냑컕듳,뛔쒣럂쯹탨룼뛠쪱볤뗄(1)췪좫탅쾢뾪랢ö뾽놴쪽쒣럂뚯첬늩?냑컕듳,뛔쒣럂쯹탨춶뷏듳뗄냑컕듳,뛔탂닺욷폐뷏룟평(5)뫍(6)쪽횪,죴b=0믲Ik-Im=(Rnew-Rold)Lm,샻죳뗄냑컕듳,퓲폺쟣쿲폚훷뚯뾪랢탂닺욷ꆣ떱솽룶웳튵퓲튻랽쿈뾪랢,듽탂닺욷췆죫쫐뎡뫳쇭튻랽솢벴뷸탐뾽놴폐쿠춬에뛏쪱,솽룶웳튵뚼믡톡퓱뾪랢ꆣ웤쯻ퟩ뫏럖컶샠쪽쒣럂쯹뗃떽뗄샻죳쿠춬,쯹틔(뾪랢,뾪랢)폫(뾪랢,쒣쯆(싔)ꆣ럂Q)뚼쫇쓉쪲뻹뫢;죴b>0,벴Ik-Im>(Rnew-Rold)Lm,2퓲폐뫳랢폅쫆,횻튪웳튵B퓚쟸볤6ꆡ뷡폯\[0,b]뷸탐뾽놴쪽쒣럂뚼믡믱뗃룼룟뗄샻죳,웳튵A튲횪뗀헢룶쟩뿶,틲듋쪧좥컒쏇뿉틔붫컒쏇뗄뛔p1,p2,p3,p4,p5뗄에뛏듺죫훷뚯뾪랢탂닺욷뗄믽벫탔,뛸뗈듽B쿈뾪랢ꆣ춬퇹뗄뗀(14)쪽,죴b>0,퓲펦뗈듽뛔랽쿈뾪랢,좻뫳뾽놴쪽쒣럂;' 1994-2008 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
뗚5웚ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡ췵엳:쮫맑춷웳튵훷뚯뾪랢탂닺욷믲뾽놴쪽쒣럂뗄늩?럖컶43죴b<0,퓲펦훷뚯뾪랢ꆣ평폚늻춬뗄웳튵뛔p1,p2,p3,p4,ퟋ냙첬뗄쿖쪵쯹퓚ꆣp5폐늻춬뗄에뛏,튻룶웳튵뛔웤쯻웳튵뛔p1,p2,p3,p4,p5웳튵퓚탂닺욷훷뚯뾪랢,뮹쫇뗈듽뛔랽쿈뾪랢돶살ퟔ뗄에뛏폐늻춬뗄에뛏,ꆭꆭ,쯹틔웳튵퓚탂닺욷훷뚯뾪랢벺뷸탐뾽놴쪽쒣럂뻶닟쪱,붫뛔p1,p2,p3,p4,p5뗄에뛏듺뮹쫇뗈듽뛔랽쿈뾪랢돶살퓙뷸탐뾽놴쪽쒣럂;뮹쫇뚼뾪죫(14)쪽볆쯣,컞틉믡쳡룟헽좷뻶닟뿉쓜탔,틔뷏짙뗄럧랢;믲헟뚼뗈듽뗄뻶닟늻춬,헢벴탂닺욷뾪랢ö쒣럂돊쿖잧쿕믱뗃뛠뗄샻죳ꆣ닎뾼컄쿗:\[1\ꆡ]AndersonSP,[J\].InternationalEconomicReview,1944,35:833ꆫ853.\[2\ꆡ]:agametheoreticapproach.\[J\].ReviewofEconomicStudies,1981,XLVË:395ꆫ405.\[3\ꆡ],priorityandimitationor,theeconomicsofracesandwaitinggames[J\].EconomicJournal,1988,98:66ꆫ80.\[4\ꆡ][J\].InternationalJournalofIndustrialOrganization,2000,18:315ꆫ338.\[5\ꆡ]헅캬펭.늩?싛폫탅쾢뺭볃톧[M\].짏몣:짏몣죋쏱돶냦짧,1996.\[6\ꆡ]쪩엠릫.뫳짺폅쫆[M\].놱뺩:쟥뮪듳톧돶냦짧,(SchoolofEconomicsandManagement,GuangzhouUniversity,Guangzhou500091,China)Abstract:WhethertodevelopitsownnewproductsortowaittoimitateotherenterprisesꆯnewproductshasbeenastrategicconsiderationoftheR&,thispaper,bycalculatingtheprofitequilibriuminthecontextsofadynamicgameofcompleteinformationandadynamicgameofincompleteinformation,workedouttheequationforquantifyinganenterpriseꆯsgameofdevelopingitsnewproductsorimitatingotherenterprisesꆯ:DevelopmentofNewProducts;Imitation;Game' 1994-2008 China Academic Journal Electronic Publishing House. All rights reserved.
