풬ꆡ량뗈:닆헾벯좨맽돌훐뗄틆횧뢶뫍닆헾릩퇸죋뿚맦쒣엲헍닆헾벯좨맽돌훐뗄틆횧뢶뫍닆헾릩퇸죋뿚맦쒣엲헍3풬ꆡ량ꆡ쳕ꆡ좻ꆡ탬횾룕ꆡ쇵쏷탋ꆡꆡ쓚죝쳡튪:뷡뫏닆헾럖좨뗄샭싛컄쿗,놾컄쏨쫶쇋훐맺ퟮ뷼10뛠쓪살헾뢮볤닆헾맘쾵뗄퇝뇤,늢럖컶쇋닆헾벯좨맽돌훐틆횧뢶퓶볓뛔뗘랽닆헾릩퇸죋뿚뗄펰쿬ꆣ샻폃훐맺1994ꆪ2003쓪쿘벶쏦냥쫽뻝뫍릤뻟뇤솿랽램,컒쏇듓쪵횤뷇뛈좷솢쇋틆횧뢶퓶볓폫닆헾릩퇸죋뿚맦쒣엲헍뗄틲맻맘쾵,늢횸돶퓚컒맺쒿잰뗄헾뢮맜샭쳥훆쿂,짏벶헾뢮쏦쇙ퟅ컞싛퓶볓쓄훖틆횧뢶뚼뿉쓜듸살컊쳢뗄솽쓑뒦뺳ꆣ튪퓚뿘훆헾뢮죟풱퓶뎤뗄춬쪱듙뷸릫릲럾컱뗄폐킧쳡릩,훐맺탨튪붨솢튻룶닆헾짏룼볓럖좨뫍탐헾맜샭짏룼폐믹닣닎폫탔뗄헾뢮맜샭쳥훆ꆣ맘볼듊:닆헾벯좨ꆡ틆횧뢶ꆡ닆헾릩퇸죋뿚엲헍튻ꆢ퇐뺿놳뺰뷼쓪살,쯦ퟅ컒맺룷벶헾뢮탐헾쳥훆룄룯뫍닆헾쳥훆룄룯뗄짮뮯,닆헾릩퇸죋뿚맦쒣컊쳢틽웰쇋톧쫵뷧뫍헾뢮늿쏅뗄맘힢ꆣ튻냣죏캪,쿠뛔폚컒맺뗄뺭볃랢햹쮮욽뫍헾뢮쯹쳡릩뗄릫릲럾컱쮮욽,컒맺틔닆헾릩퇸죋뿚캪뇪ힼ뫢솿뗄헾뢮맦쒣뷏듳,뛸쟒엲헍쯙뛈맽뿬(WorldBank,2002;돂컽컄뗈,2002)ꆣꋙ떽2000쓪,훐맺닆헾릩퇸죋뿚뻍틑뺭듯떽4290췲,웤훐탐헾죋뿚988췲,룷샠쫂튵떥캻죋뿚3292췲ꆣ쯤좻뷼쓪살맺웳룄룯닃복쇋뫜뛠풱릤,훐퇫뫍뗘랽헾뢮튲늻뛏뷸탐복킡릩퇸죋뿚맦쒣뗄룄룯뎢쫔,떫닆헾릩퇸죋뿚죔좻쎿쓪퓶볓100췲틔짏,쳘뇰쫇쫐쿘벶뇰헾뢮뗄닆헾릩퇸죋뿚,ퟜ쳥짏뇭쿖돶뷏뿬뗄퓶뎤쟷쫆ꆣꋚ뷏뛠쟒늻뛏퓶볓뗄닆헾릩퇸죋뿚룸뫜뛠뗘쟸,쳘뇰쫇잷랢듯뗘쟸뗄뗘랽닆헾듸살쇋뫜듳뗄횧돶톹솦ꆣ늿럖뗘쟸짵훁돉캪뗤탍뗄돔랹닆헾,벴뗘랽닆솦횻쓜쏣잿횧뢶,짵훁컞램췪좫놣횤닆헾릩퇸죋풱뗄믹놾릤,룼늻폃첸쳡릩폐킧뗄릫릲럾컱(돂컽컄뗈,2002)ꆣ캪쇋뷢뻶뗘랽헾뢮쳘뇰쫇잷랢듯뗘쟸닆헾릩퇸죋뿚맦쒣욫듳,릫릲럾컱쳡릩좴풶풶늻ퟣ뗄컊쳢,뷼쓪살훐퇫헾뢮뾪쪼췆뚯뗘랽헾뢮뗄탐헾맜샭쳥훆룄룯뫍쫂튵떥캻룄룯ꆣ틔놾쫀볍돵뾪쪼뗄얩듥쮰럑룄룯캪웵믺,룷뗘뷸탐쇋듳맦쒣뗄ꆰ뎷쿧늢헲ꆱ룄룯틔쪵쿖뺫볲믺릹ꆢ뇤횰쓜뗄쒿뗄ꆣ춬쪱,훐퇫헾뢮뾪쪼훰붥퓶볓뛔잷랢듯뗘쟸뗄틆횧뢶틔듙뷸뗘랽헾뢮쳡릩폐샻폚뗘랽뺭볃랢햹뫍죋쏱짺믮뗄릫릲닺욷폫럾컱ꆣ뇈죧,캪쇋쪵쿖돇쿧킭뗷랢햹ꆢ릹붨뫍킳짧믡뗄쒿뇪,훐퇫헾뢮틑뺭뾪쪼ꆢ늢볆뮮퓚캴살튻뛎쪱웚뷸튻늽볓잿뛔얩튵뫍얩듥랢햹뗄춶죫ꆣ3ꆡ풬량ꆢ쳕좻ꆢ탬횾룕,훐맺뿆톧풺뗘샭뿆톧폫풴퇐뺿쯹얩튵헾닟퇐뺿훐탄,폊헾뇠싫:100101,뗧ퟓ탅쿤:@;쇵쏷탋,놱뺩듳톧훐맺뷌폽닆헾뿆톧퇐뺿쯹ꆢ훐퇫닆뺭듳톧훐맺뺭볃폫맜샭퇐뺿풺ꆣ놾퇐뺿뗃떽쇋맺볒ퟔ좻뿆톧믹뷰(70633002)ꆢ훐맺뿆톧풺쿮쒿(KSCX22YW2N2039)틔벰훐맺뿆톧풺뗘샭뿆톧폫풴퇐뺿쯹ퟔ좻뿆톧믹뷰엤쳗쿮쒿뗄훺ꆣ룐킻쓤쏻짳룥죋쳡돶뗄움싛틢틥,컄퓰ퟔ뢺ꆣꋙꆡ컒맺닆헾릩퇸죋뿚쫇뇈헾뢮릫컱풱룼맣틥뗄룅쓮,냼삨떳헾믺맘ꆢ짧믡췅쳥벰닆헾늦뿮쫂튵떥캻뗈뗄릤ퟷ죋풱,퓚20쫀볍90쓪듺훐뫳웚횮잰짵훁뮹냼삨쿠떱쫽쒿뗄맺폐웳튵횰릤ꆣꋚꆡ틔뫓놱쪡캪샽,1995ꆪ2003쓪볤닆헾릩퇸죋풱듓157췲죋퓶볓떽219췲죋,쿠떱폚튻룶훐뗈맦쒣쿘뗄죋뿚ꆣ닆헾릩퇸죋풱훷튪벯훐퓚쿘쿧솽벶,췹췹뎬맽쪡ퟜ릩퇸죋뿚뗄70%,죧낲믕쪡2003쓪뗗듯16713췲죋,웤훐쿘벶9214췲죋,쿘뻹115췲죋,쿧헲벶26췲죋,쿧헲뻹150죋(헔쫷뾭,2005)ꆣ70
2008쓪뗚5웚쿔좻,평폚헢킩룄룯뫍헾닟쪵쪩탨튪춨맽뗘랽헾뢮살췪돉,짏쫶복풱퓶킧ꆢ쳡룟춶죫뗄듫쪩쓜럱ퟠ킧좡뻶폚룄룯쓜럱룸뗘랽헾뢮쳡릩ퟣ릻뗄벤샸ꆣ뻍죋풱닃복살뾴,얩듥쮰럑룄룯횮뫳뫜뛠뗘쟸쿘쿧믹닣닆헾듳럹뛈복쫕,룷뗘쯤좻닉좡쇋죧뎷쿧늢헲뗈믺릹룄룯듫쪩,떫퓚닙ퟷ훐췹췹쓑틔췆뷸,뷡맻쫇쿧헲늢쇋,믺릹복짙쇋,떫죋풱닃늻쿂좥,믲헟탐헾죋풱닃쇋,떫쫂튵떥캻죋풱톸쯙퓶볓(헔쫷뾭,2002)ꆣ춬쪱,퓚놾뗘닆풴쿂붵ꆢ죋풱뾪횧룕탔뗄쟩뿶쿂,퓶볓뗄짏벶틆횧뢶떽뗗믡놻폃폚쳡릩폐킧릫릲럾컱,뮹쫇룼뛠뗘놻폃폚퓶볓캴뇘폐샻폚릫릲럾컱뗄릩퇸죋뿚?쳘뇰쫇뾼싇떽,평틆횧뢶죚뗄뗘랽닆헾횧돶뗄뇈훘늻뛏짏짽폫뷼쓪살컒맺닆헾쳥훆늻뛏벯좨뮯뷴쏜쿠맘,쿖폐닆헾쳥훆쿂뗘랽헾뢮뗄쒿뇪몯쫽쓚몭벰폫횮쿠뛔펦뗄닆헾횧돶탐캪뻍늻뷶쫇튻룶훘튪뗄톧쫵컊쳢,튲쫇캴살룄룯뇘탫쏦쇙뗄쳴햽ꆣ놾컄뗄쒿뇪,쫇퇐뺿퓚컒맺쒿잰헾뢮볤닆헾쳥훆낲업쿂퓶볓틆횧뢶뛔닆헾릩퇸죋뿚맦쒣뗄펰쿬,듓뛸뾼달잰쫶ꆰ틆횧뢶룼뿉쓜폃폚쳡릩폐킧릫릲럾컱,뮹쫇폃폚퇸죋ꆱ헢퇹튻룶훘튪컊쳢ꆣ뛾ꆢ1994쓪틔살훐맺닆헾쳥훆뗄벯좨뮯:튻룶믹폚컄쿗뗄쳖싛컒맺쿖폐뗄헾뢮볤닆헾쳥훆퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏살ퟔ폚1994쓪럖쮰훆룄룯,웤쒿뇪퓚폚룄뇤틔잰냑횧돶퓰죎폫쫕죫좨솦춬쪱쿂럅뗄ꆰ럖퓮돔랹ꆱ쳥훆,듓뛸쳡룟ꆰ솽룶뇈훘ꆱ(훐퇫닆헾쫕죫햼ퟜ닆헾쫕죫뗄뇈훘폫닆헾쫕죫햼GDP뗄뇈훘)ꆣ럖쮰훆룄룯놾틢짏쫇튪듓풭살룷쪡떥뛀첸에ꆢ좱랦춳튻맦퓲뗄돐냼훆쿲룼캪춸쏷ꆢ뻟폐맦퓲뗄닆헾쳥훆,떫쪵볊짏쯼횻쫇틔뷏쏷좷뗄랽쪽뮮럖쇋쫕죫,좴캴듓램싉짏룄뇤믲쏷좷헾뢮볤횧돶퓰죎뗄뮮럖(퇮횮룕,2004)ꆣ뛸잡잡쫇평폚쒿잰훐맺닆헾쳥훆훐헾뢮볤닆헾퓰죎뗄뮮럖뻟폐튻뚨뗄쒣뫽탔뫍훘뗾탔,짏벶헾뢮췹췹쟣쿲폚냑횧돶퓰죎쿂톹ꆣ쯹틔냩쯦ퟅ닆헾쫕죫벯훐뗄췹췹쫇횧돶퓰죎쿂럅ꆣꋙ쪵볊짏,쯦ퟅ훐퇫닆헾쫕죫뗄벯좨뮯,쪡틔쿂룷벶헾뢮튲짏탐쿂킧,냑훐퇫닆좨짏쫕듸살뗄톹솦쿲쿂벶닆헾틆,듓뛸쪡틔쿂튲돶쿖쇋쫕죫벯훐뗄맽돌ꆣ볈폐뛔훐맺닆헾쳥훆뗄쳖싛훐,쪵볊짏듦퓚튻킩뛔훐맺닆헾쳥훆떽뗗쫇ꆰ벯좨쳥훆ꆱ뮹쫇ꆰ럖좨쳥훆ꆱ뗄컳뷢,평폚쿠떱늿럖펢컄컄쿗붫훐맺뗄닆헾쳥훆돆캪ꆰhighlydecentralizedꆱ쳥훆,늻짙훐컄컄쿗퓚쳖싛쪱퓲붫횮돆캪ꆰ룟뛈럖좨ꆱ뗄쳥훆ꆣ횮쯹틔돶쿖헢퇹뗄쟩뿶,쪵볊짦벰떽튻룶룅쓮뚨틥뫍훐펢컄닮틬뗄컊쳢ꆣ뛔ꆰdecentralizationꆱ룼좷쟐뗄샭뷢쫇ꆰ쿂럅ꆱ믲ꆰ럇훐탄뮯ꆱꆣ틔헾뢮볤닆헾맘쾵캪샽,퇏룱쮵살횻폐헾뢮쫕죫(쮰쫕)닅쫇튻훖ꆰ좨솦ꆱ,틲듋죧맻컒쏇퓚훐컄폯뺳쿂첸ꆰ럖좨ꆱ,뻍펦룃횸뗘랽헾뢮펵폐룼뛠뗄쫕죫좨ꆣ폫ꆰ쫕죫좨ꆱ쿠랴,헾뢮횧돶훷튪쫇튻훖퓰죎,뛸펢컄뗄ꆰfiscaldecentralizationꆱ볈뿉쓜쫇쫕죫ꆰ좨솦ꆱ뗄쿂럅(revenuedecentralization),믲헟쮵쫇ꆰ럖좨ꆱ,튲뿉틔쫇횧돶ꆰ퓰죎ꆱ뗄쿂럅(expendituredecentralization),솽헟쿔좻폐놾훊쟸뇰ꆣ쯹틔늻볓쟸럖뗘냑decentralization뚼돆캪ꆰ럖좨ꆱ,믲붫훐맺쿖폐닆헾쳥훆돆캪ꆰ럖좨ꆱ쳥훆뚼듦퓚컊쳢ꆣ퇏룱쮵살,훐맺쿖폐뗄헾뢮볤닆헾쳥훆쫇튻룶닆헾퓰죎쿂럅돌뛈뫜룟,떫뗘랽쫕죫뇈훘(쳘뇰쫇풤쯣쓚쫕죫뇈훘)쿠뛔뷏뗍,쟒믹놾쎻폐믲뫜짙폐헽쪽쮰쫕좨솦뗄쳥훆ꆣ룹뻝짏쏦뗄쳖싛,1994쓪럖쮰훆룄룯틔벰웤뫳뗄튻쾵쇐럖쿭맦퓲뗷헻뗄뷡맻,쫇훐맺뗄헾뢮볤닆헾쳥훆죕틦ꆰ벯좨ꆱ뮯;뛸1994쓪틔살닆솦벯훐뫍횧돶쿂럅뗄릲춬ퟷ폃,뻍쫇퓚늻춬벶뇰헾뢮볤듸살죕틦삩듳뗄ퟝ쿲닆헾늻욽뫢,헢쪹뗃뗘랽풤쯣쓚횧돶뗄쿠떱늿럖뇘탫틀뾿짏벶틆횧뢶ꆣ뇈죧,쒿잰컒맺뗘랽ퟜ횧돶뗄40%뾿틆횧뢶쳡릩뷰,쪡틔쿂쟩뿶튲샠쯆ꆣ뇈죧1999쓪쿘벶ퟜ횧돶뗄40%살ퟔ폚틆횧뢶,ꋙ평폚쿠떱쫽솿뗄맺웳퓚20쫀볍80쓪듺쒩웚뫍90쓪듺돵웚틆떽뗘랽,볓짏90쓪듺훐웚틔살뗄맺웳훘ퟩ,뗘랽짧놣횧돶퓰죎뮹폐쯹퓶볓ꆣ듓좫쫀뷧뷇뛈뾴,훐맺쪡벰틔쿂헾뢮횧돶햼ퟜ헾뢮횧돶뗄70%(웤훐쪡틔쿂헾뢮횧돶햼50%),풶풶룟폚OECD맺볒(뗘쟸)뗄32%ꆢ탍맺볒뗄26%뫍랢햹훐맺볒뗄14%(WorldBank,2002)ꆣ71
풬ꆡ량뗈:닆헾벯좨맽돌훐뗄틆횧뢶뫍닆헾릩퇸죋뿚맦쒣엲헍뛸맺볒벶욶삧쿘퓲짵훁룟듯61%(돂컽컄뗈,2002)ꆣ쪵볊짏,맺췢헾훎뺭볃톧컄쿗뗄ퟮ탂뷸햹뛔늻춬탎쪽뗄닆헾쿂럅(decentralization)뷸탐쇋쟸럖ꆣ웤믹놾랢쿖쫇,쓇훖횻폐횧돶퓰죎쿂럅,떫쫕죫좨솦짏쫕,뗘랽헾뢮틲듋탨튪듳솿짏벶헾뢮틆횧뢶뗄ꆰdecentralizationꆱ,폫횧돶퓰죎뫍쫕죫좨솦춬쪱쿂럅뗄ꆰdecentralizationꆱ,퓚훎샭벨킧짏듦퓚뫜듳닮뇰ꆣ잰헟뫜죝틗닺짺튻쾵쇐뗘랽벤샸얤쟺떼훂뗄돉놾ꆣ쫗쿈쫇닆헾벤샸돉놾,벴죎뫎뻟폐퓙럖엤탔훊뗄닆헾헾닟뚼믡뛔뗘랽헾뢮듸살뢺쿲벤샸:뛔폚닆헾뺻릱쿗캪헽뗄뗘쟸,쮰좨짏쫕믡붵뗍웤랢햹뗘랽뺭볃폫엠폽쮰풴뗄믽벫탔,뛸뛔폚뷓쫜틆횧뢶뗄뗘쟸,훐퇫닆솦릹돉쇋튻룶ꆰ릲춬풴ꆱ,벤샸뗘랽좥얬솦헹뛡풴뛸럇쳡릩듙뷸퓶뎤뗄릫릲닺욷(Weingast,2000)ꆣ웤듎쫇헾훎첸에돉놾,틲캪벴쪹퓚랢듯맺볒,훐퇫폫뗘랽뗄닆헾엤훃튲췹췹좡뻶폚짏쿂벶헾뢮뗄헾훎첸에뫍뗘랽헾뢮횮볤뗄늩?,쟸폲볤닆솦욽뗈뗄쒿뇪췹췹컞램쪵쿖(BesleyandCoate,2001;EbelandYilmaz,2002)ꆣퟮ뫳뮹폐탅쾢돉놾,헢훷튪쫇틲캪훐퇫헾뢮퓚쯑벯뗘랽릫릲닺욷탨튪랽쏦뻟폐탅쾢쇓쫆ꆣ뛸뗘랽헾뢮,쳘뇰쫇톡뻙돶살뗄뗘랽헾뢮,늻뷶폐맘폚놾뗘탨튪뗄룼돤럖뗄탅쾢,튲뇈룟벶뇰헾뢮룼폐믽벫탔좥샻폃헢킩탅쾢ꆣퟜ횮,쒿잰컄쿗훐훰붥탎돉쇋틔쿂릲쪶,벴쯤좻쟸폲볤뺺헹떼훂쮰싊맽뗍쟒릫릲닺욷쳡릩늻ퟣ쪱탨튪벯좨믲헟뿧쟸폲킭뗷,떫ퟜ쳥짏좨뫢,벯좨뗄돉놾뮹쫇룼룟,쯹틔럖좨탍훎샭랽쪽뷼쓪살죕틦쫜떽훘쫓ꆣ뷸튻늽살뾴,20쫀볍90쓪듺틔살컒맺닆헾쳥훆뗄벯좨뮯쫇쫐뎡뮯맽돌훐컒맺쳘폐헾뢮맜샭쳥훆퇝뇤뇘좻돶쿖뗄쿖쿳ꆣ퓚쿖폐헾뢮맜샭쳥훆쿂,뗘랽헾뢮쇬떼쪵훊짏쫇짏벶헾뢮죎쏼뗄,웤릤ퟷ죎컱훷튪평짏벶살좷뚨,뛔릤ퟷ췪돉쟩뿶뗄볠뚽뫍뾼뫋튲훷튪평짏벶뷸탐ꆣ쎿튻벶헾뢮뚼폐쿠펦뗄릤ퟷ죎컱뫍뾼뫋횸뇪,죧GDP뫍닆헾쫕죫퓶뎤뗈ꆣ평폚뗘랽헾뢮훷튪쫇뛔짏뢺퓰,짏벶헾뢮뇘탫폐튻뚨뗄릤뻟뫍쫖뛎살벤샸(믲헟돍랣)쿂벶ꆣ떫20쫀볍80쓪듺틔살,쯦ퟅ컒맺뺭볃쫐뎡뮯맽돌뗄짮뮯,훐퇫헾뢮풭살뿉틔춨맽볆뮮ꆢ횸쇮뫍탐헾맜샭랽쪽뿘훆뫍틽떼뗘랽헾뢮탐캪뗄쟩탎헽퓚뇤뮯ꆣ퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,벯훐닆좨늢춨맽틆횧뢶벤샸(믲돍랣)뗘랽헾뢮,뻍돉캪훐퇫헾뢮뗄튻룶ퟔ좻뗄헾닟랴펦ꆣ헢뻍쫇캪쪲쎴20쫀볍90쓪듺틔살훐퇫헾뢮탨튪춨맽벯훐닆헾풴,늢퓋폃틆횧뢶뗄랽쪽살벤샸뗘랽뗄튻룶훘튪풭틲ꆣ헢튲폐훺폚뷢쫍럖쮰훆틔살컒맺돶쿖뗄틔쿂쟩뿶,벴쯤좻듓풭퓲짏뾴,뻟폐뷏잿맦퓲탔뫍춸쏷뛈뗄튻냣틆횧뢶룼폐샻폚쪵쿖릫릲럾컱뻹뗈뮯뗄탨튪,떫컒맺쿖폐뗄틆횧뢶쳥쾵훐웰훷떼뗘캻뗄뮹쫇벸쪮훖쓋훁짏냙훖춸쏷뛈뷏닮ꆢ쯦틢탔뷏잿뗄쿮틆횧뢶,튻냣틆횧뢶뗄뇈훘쯤좻뷼벸쓪폐쯹퓶볓,떫ퟜ쳥살뾴뮹뇈뷏뗍ꆣꋙ횮쯹틔돶쿖헢훖쟩뿶,튻랽쏦쫇틲캪틆횧뢶퓚쿖폐뗘랽헾뢮ꆰ뛔짏뢺퓰ꆱ뗄맜샭쳥훆쿂룼뛠뗘놻훐퇫헾뢮ퟷ캪뿘훆뗘랽뗄릤뻟,뛸럇쪵쿖닆헾뻹뗈뮯뗄쫖뛎,뛸춨맽쿮틆횧뢶쿔좻룼샻폚듯떽헢퇹뗄쒿뗄ꆣ쇭췢튻랽쏦,평폚뗘랽헾뢮좱랦뛔쿂뢺퓰믺훆,짏벶튲늻쟣쿲폚쪹폃튻냣탔틆횧뢶,틔럀횹뗘랽헾뢮냑짏벶틆횧뢶얲ퟷ쯻폃,뇈죧폃폚컞킧뗄죋풱럑뾪횧ꆣ뛸컊쳢잡잡쫇퓚폚,튻떩틆횧뢶훷튪쫇틑뺭쏷좷맦뚨쇋폃춾뗄쿮틆횧뢶쪱,뻍듦퓚짏벶헾뢮늻죧뗘랽헾뢮쇋뷢쟩뿶,듓뛸틆횧뢶컞램돤럖럻뫏떱뗘탨튪뗄컊쳢ꆣ룼퇏훘뗄쫇,평폚헢킩쿮뷰퓚럖엤맽돌훐뗄쇩믮탔튪풶풶듳폚튻냣탔틆횧뢶,뗘랽헾뢮폐뫜잿벤샸춨맽엜ꆰ늿ꆱꆰ잮ꆱ뷸ꆰꆢ퇹ퟓ릤돌ꆱ쿔쪾헾벨뗄랽쪽살헹좡풴,뷡맻췹췹쫇닆헾횧돶캪떱뗘냙탕쓑틔듸살쪵볊뫃뒦(WorldBank,2002)ꆣ죽ꆢ닆헾틆횧뢶폫닆헾릩퇸죋뿚:튻룶샭싛럖컶뿲볜폫쿠맘볙쮵죧잰쯹쫶,퓚튻룶닆헾쫕죫벯좨ꆢ횧돶퓰죎쿂럅뗄쳥훆훐,틆횧뢶쫆뇘돉캪뗘랽헾뢮쫕죫뗄ꋙ틑폐뛔훐맺럖쮰훆룄룯벰닆헾틆횧뢶뗄퇐뺿뇭쏷,듓뺻킧펦짏뾴,훐맺뗄틆횧뢶랴뛸뻟폐튻뚨뗄쟸폲럇뻹뗈뮯킧펦,벴뛔폚뇈뷏랢듯뗄쪡쟸룼폐샻ꆣ헢퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏쫇틲캪쿮틆횧뢶퓚틆횧뢶쳥쾵훐햼훘튪뗘캻,뛸웤럖엤퓚쿠떱돌뛈짏좡뻶폚폫짏벶헾뢮뗄맘쾵,뛸쟒췹췹탨튪뗘랽엤쳗뷰,퓚헢킩랽쏦뇈뷏랢듯뗄뗘쟸뚼폐튻뚨폅쫆(Wong,2000;Tsui,2005)ꆣ72
2008쓪뗚5웚훘튪늿럖ꆣ떫쫇퓚룷룶뗘쟸풴?뢳늻쿠춬뗄쟩뿶쿂,뗘랽헾뢮퓚샻폃짏벶틆횧뢶뷰랽쏦뗄벤샸튲뫜늻튻퇹ꆣ뻟쳥뛸퇔,퓚쒿잰컒맺헢훖뗘랽헾뢮훷튪뛔짏뛸럇뛔쿂뢺퓰뗄쟩뿶쿂,웤탐캪벤샸뿉틔뇈뷏뫏샭뗘놻볙뚨캪:튻랽쏦뿉틔톡퓱춶죫떽뛔뗘랽뺭볃랢햹폐샻뗄릫릲닺욷,헢붫폐샻폚뗘랽뺭볃뗄퓶뎤,듓뛸폐샻폚쳡룟뗘랽헾뢮헾벨;쇭튻랽쏦,튲뿉틔톡퓱폃폚캪뗘랽맙풱붨솢놾뗘헾훎횧돖췸싧,떫뛔뺭볃랢햹캴뇘폐샻뗄헾뢮늿쏅뻍튵,뇈죧쮵삩듳닆헾릩퇸죋뿚ꆣ쿠뛔폚훐퇫헾뢮ퟮ듳뮯짧믡뢣샻뗄쒿뇪ꋙ,뗘랽헾뢮ퟮ듳뮯뗄쒿뇪튪룼캪럡뢻,쯼탨튪퓚쳡릩폐킧릫릲닺욷폫릩퇸닆헾죋뿚횮볤ퟶ돶좨뫢틔싺ퟣ뗘랽쳘뚨뗄샻틦벯췅,믲죧Bardhan뫍Mookherjee(2001)쯹횸돶뗄,쿠뇈폚룟닣헾뢮,뗍닣헾뢮룼죝틗쫜떽뗘랽샻틦벯췅뗄풼쫸ꆣ퓚짏쫶볙뚨쿂,죧맻짏벶헾뢮탨튪뾿쿂벶살쳡릩릫릲닺욷폫럾컱,뛸쿂벶헾뢮쳡릩헢킩릫릲닺욷뗄횧돶평놾뗘쮰풴뫍짏벶틆횧뢶릲춬살죚;죧맻짏벶헾뢮룼쟣쿲폚뻹뗈뮯늻춬뗘쟸횮볤뗄짧믡뢣샻,듓뛸쟣쿲폚붫룼뛠뗄틆횧뢶춶죫떽풴?뢳뷏짙뗄뗘쟸쪱,쓇쎴,튻랽쏦,쓇킩?뢳뇈뷏뛠뗄뗘쟸평폚웤퓚춨맽폐킧릫릲춶랢햹놾뗘뺭볃랽쏦뗄폅쫆,퓚풤웚웤믱뗃틆횧뢶뗄뿉쓜탔쿂붵쪱,믡룼볓쟣쿲폚샻폃ퟔ폐닆헾쫕죫쳡릩폐킧뗄릫릲닺욷춶틔랢햹뗘랽뺭볃;쇭튻랽쏦,쓇킩?뢳뇈뷏짙뗄뗘쟸,평폚웤랢햹뗘랽뺭볃짏뗄쇓쫆,뗘랽헾뢮붫룼폐벤샸좥삩듳닆헾릩퇸죋뿚틔붨솢놾뗘헾훎횧돖췸싧믲놣횤뗘랽컈뚨ꆣꋚ짏쫶쳖싛틢캶ퟅ짏벶헾뢮춬퇹쏦쇙튻룶좨뫢,튻랽쏦평폚늻춬뗘쟸뻟폐늻춬뗄풴?뢳,붫틆횧뢶폃폚쓇킩?뢳뷏뛠뗄뗘쟸쓜릻룼뿬룼폐킧뗘랢햹헢킩뗘쟸뗄뺭볃,떫쇭튻랽쏦,헽쫇평폚뗘쟸풴?뢳뗄닮뇰,훐퇫헾뢮튲뇘탫뾼싇떽짧믡뢣샻뻹뗈뮯,벴퓶듳쓇킩?뢳뇈뷏짙뗄뗘쟸뗄틆횧뢶틔듯떽랢햹떱뗘뺭볃뗄쒿뗄ꆣ듋쪱,짏벶헾뢮뗄ퟮ폅톡퓱,뻍쫇톡퓱튻룶뫏쫊뗄틆횧뢶쮮욽,쪹뗃ퟔ짭뗄뇟볊쫕틦뗈폚뇟볊돉놾ꆣ쓇쎴뿉틔횤쏷,퓚헢퇹튻훖훐퇫닆헾벯좨뗄쳥훆쿂,훐퇫헾뢮퓚틆횧뢶짏뛔?뢳뷏짙뗘쟸뗄욫쿲탔붫떼훂헢킩뗘쟸룼뛠뗘틀뾿짏벶틆횧뢶,늢붫웤폃폚놣횤뗘랽샻틦벯췅뗄쳘쫢샻틦,죧퓶볓죟폠뗄헾뢮릫릲늿쏅릩퇸죋뿚틔퓶볓뗘랽헾훎횧돖ꆣ컒쏇붨솢쇋헢퇹튻룶훐퇫ꆪ뗘랽헾뢮솽뷗뛎뗄늩?쒣탍,늢뗃떽쇋쿠펦뗄뷡싛ꆣ욪럹쯹쿞,컒쏇쪡싔쇋샭싛쒣탍ꆣꋛ뻝듋,컒쏇뿉틔럖컶샭뷢훐맺럖쮰훆룄룯틔벰럖쮰훆틔뫳뗘랽닆헾릩퇸죋뿚뗄쟸폲닮틬뫍뚯첬뇤뮯뗄컊쳢ꆣ듓뿧쟸폲뷇뛈살뾴,죧맻튻킩뗘쟸?뢳쳵볾뇈뷏뫃,룼뛠틀뾿놾뗘쮰풴쟒늻쓜뗃떽뫜뛠짏벶틆횧뢶,뛸쇭튻샠뗘쟸?뢳뇈뷏닮,훷튪쫕죫살ퟔ폚짏벶틆횧뢶,놾뗘쮰풴폐쿞ꆣ쓇쎴룹뻝컒쏇뗄뇈뷏뺲첬럖컶,뿉틔뾴돶쓇킩?뢳뇈뷏닮뗄뗘쟸붫룼쟣쿲폚붫틆횧뢶폃폚퓶볓죟폠닆헾릩퇸죋뿚,붫헢킩뗘랽맙풱낲훃폚뛔뺭볃랢햹캴뇘폐샻뗄헾뢮늿쏅뻍튵,늢폐킧뗘붨솢웰뗘랽헾훎횧돖췸싧ꆣ뚯첬짏뾴,럖쮰훆룄룯틔벰럖쮰훆틔뫳훐퇫ꆢ쪡벶쓋훁뗘쫐벶헾뢮뾪쪼짏쫕닆헾좨솦,떫닆헾퓰죎쎻폐짏쫕,랴뛸죕틦쿂럅ꆣ뛸닆좨짏쫕뗄뷡맻쫇복킡쇋뗘랽ퟔ폐닆헾쫕죫뗄뇈훘뛔풤쯣풼쫸벯뗄릱쿗,뛸퓚훐퇫뻹뗈뮯짧믡뢣샻뗄잰쳡쿂,룼뛠뗄닆헾풴놻틆떽?뢳뷏짙뗄뗘쟸ꆣ헢퇹,?뢳뷏뛠뗄뗘쟸평폚풤쯣풼쫸뗄쿂붵뛸붵뗍쇋웤쳡릩릫릲욷럾컱뗄쿠뛔믽벫탔,뛸쓇킩?뢳뷏짙뗄뗘쟸뻍붫닆헾횧돶룼뛠뗘폃폚캪뗘랽맙풱붨솢놾뗘헾훎횧돖췸싧믲놣돖헾훎컈뚨짏ꆣ듓뛸,훐퇫닆헾늻뛏벯좨뮯쟩뿶쿂룷뗘닆헾릩퇸죋뿚뚼믡폐쯹퓶볓ꆣ맘폚듋샠컊쳢,Careaga뫍Weingast(2002)뗈뗄샭싛럖컶훐튲폐쿠펦뗄쳖싛,늻퓙ힸ쫶ꆣꋙ룃짧믡뢣샻쒿뇪튪뾼싇떽훐퇫헾뢮뻹뗈뮯뗘랽뢣샻뗄틲쯘ꆣꋚ평폚뗘랽쮰풴훷튪쫇퓶횵쮰,릤짌튵뷏랢듯뗄뗘쟸쓜뗃떽룼뛠풤쯣쓚놾뗘쮰쫕ꆣ뻍뷼쓪살죕틦훘튪뗄쯹뗃쮰뛸퇔,뻓쏱쫕죫뷏룟뗄뗘쟸폐룼듳뗄쮰믹(FedelinoandTer2Minassian,2006)ꆣ뷡맻쫇늻춬뗘쟸틀뾿짏벶횧뢶뗄돌뛈뇘좻듦퓚닮뇰ꆣꋛ폐탋좤뗄뛁헟뿉틔쿲ퟷ헟솪쾵쯷튪ꆣ73
풬ꆡ량뗈:닆헾벯좨맽돌훐뗄틆횧뢶뫍닆헾릩퇸죋뿚맦쒣엲헍ퟛ짏,컒쏇탨튪볬퇩뗄맘볼샭싛볙쮵쫇:뿘훆웤쯻틲쯘,뗘랽닆헾횧돶풽틀뾿틆횧뢶죚,퓲닆헾릩퇸죋뿚붫풽뛠ꆣ쪵볊짏,튻킩맺뇰폫뿧맺퇐뺿뚼뇭쏷,뫜뛠랢햹훐맺볒,뇈죧삭쏀맺볒,퓚횧돶퓰죎쿂럅뗄쟩뿶쿂춨맽짏벶틆횧뢶죚,뷡맻쫇뗘랽헾뢮돶쿖뗀뗂럧쿕,헾뢮횧돶맦쒣뫍햮컱퓶볓,짵훁뫪맛뺭볃늻컈뚨(Rodden,2002)ꆣ뛸횻폐횧돶퓰죎뫍쫕죫좨솦춬쪱쿂럅,벴춨뎣쯹쮵뗄ꆰ퓰좨샻뛔펦ꆱ쳥쾵,닅쓜좡뗃닆헾럖좨샭싛쯹듸살뗄헾뢮킧싊룄뷸(CareagaandWeingast,2002)ꆣ룼폐퇐뺿랢쿖,쿠뇈폚놾뗘ퟔ폐쮰풴,짏벶틆횧뢶룼뿉쓜놻폃폚죋풱횧돶,뛸웤훷튪쒿뗄,늢럇퓶볓릫릲럾컱,뛸쫇릺싲헾훎횧돖(Triesman,2002)ꆣ쿂튻늿럖뗄쪵횤럖컶붫뷸튻늽쳖싛헢킩컊쳢ꆣ쯄ꆢ틆횧뢶폫닆헾릩퇸죋뿚:쪵횤럖컶캪룼뫃뗘샭뷢죋뻹닆헾릩퇸죋뿚폫죋뻹틆횧뢶횮볤뗄쓚퓚맘쾵,컒쏇붫닉폃1994ꆪ2003쓪볤좫맺쿘벶쏦냥쫽뻝뷸탐뺭볃볆솿럖컶ꆣ룃쫽뻝퇹놾뗣짦벰좫맺2800뛠룶쿘ꆢ쿘벶쫐믲쟸벶탐헾떥캻ꆣ놾컄쯹폐쿘벶쫽뻝뻹살ퟔꆶ좫맺뗘쫐쿘닆헾춳볆쇏ꆷ,쪱볤뿧뛈캪럖쮰훆룄룯뫳뗄1994ꆪ2003쓪ꆣ떫퓚쪵볊쪹폃룃쳗쫽뻝쪱,평폚튻늿럖퇹놾뗣뗄쒳킩믲좫늿쓪럝좱짙튻킩훘튪뗄뷢쫍뇤솿믲놻뷢쫍뇤솿뗄쫽뻝,틲듋퓚ퟶ쏨쫶탔춳볆럖컶뗄쪱뫲,캪쇋뇣폚뇈뷏,컒쏇즾돽헢킩럇욽뫢뗄퇹놾ꆣ떫볆솿럖컶훐컒쏇튲폃럇욽뫢쫽뻝볬퇩쇋볙쮵뗄컈붡탔ꆣퟜ횮,컒쏇쪹폃뗄훷튪쫽뻝릲몭룇1527룶몬폐좫늿10쓪쪱볤뗄퇹놾뗣,쫇튻룶욽뫢쏦냥쫽뻝ꆣꋙ(튻)볆솿뺭볃쒣탍캪쇋퇐뺿틆횧뢶폫닆헾릩퇸죋뿚뗄맘쾵,볬퇩컄훐뗚죽늿럖쳡돶뗄맘볼샭싛볙쮵,컒쏇붨솢쇋틔쿂뿘훆쪱볤뗄럇맛닢킧펦쏦냥쫽뻝쒣탍:kYꛂit=ꛁ+ꇆjZit+ꛃWit+ꛌi+ꛍi+ꛅ(it1)j=1웤훐,i듺뇭쿘,t듺뇭쪱볤ꆣ쒣탍훐뗄놻뷢쫍뇤솿Y쫇i쿘(쟸)뗚t쓪뗄췲죋닆헾릩퇸죋뿚;맘볼뷢쫍뇤솿W캪닆헾틆횧뢶솦뛈,컒쏇폃틆횧뢶햼ퟜ닆헾횧돶뗄뇈훘살닢뛈짏벶헾뢮뛔쿘뗄닆헾틆횧뢶솦뛈ꆣ룹뻝볙쮵,컒쏇풤웚룃뇤솿뛔닆헾릩퇸죋뿚뗄펰쿬캪헽ꆣ뷢쫍뇤솿Z캪튻ퟩ뿘훆뇤솿,뿘훆쿘(쟸)돇쫐뮯쮮욽ꆢ뺭볃랢햹쮮욽ꆢ쿘죋뿚맦쒣뗈틲쯘뛔웤닆헾릩퇸죋뿚뗄펰쿬ꆣ쿘(쟸)돇쫐뮯쮮욽폃돇쫐뮯싊,벴쿘(쟸)쯹폐죋뿚훐돇헲죋뿚뇈훘살닢솿;뺭볃랢햹쮮욽폃죋뻹맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵살뫢솿,캪쇋뿘훆뺭볃랢햹쮮욽뗄럇쿟탔펰쿬,쒣탍훐컒쏇틽죫쇋죋뻹맺쓚짺닺ퟜ횵뗄욽랽쿮;쒣탍훐폃쿘(쟸)ퟜ죋뿚듺뇭쿘(쟸)맦쒣ꆣ듋췢,폐탭뛠펰쿬닆헾릩퇸죋뿚뇤뮯뗄틲쯘,뇈죧뫪맛헾닟,쫇룷뗘쟸릲춬쏦뛔뗄,헢킩틲쯘뛔룷뗘쟸쿠춬,떫쯦쪱볤뇤뮯,뛸쟒쫇컒쏇컞램맛닢떽뗄,쒣탍훐컒쏇폃쓪뛈탩쓢뇤솿v살볓틔뿘훆;ퟮ뫳,룷쿘(쟸)뚼폐탭뛠쳘폐뗄늢쟒쫇쯦쪱볤늻뇤뗄틲쯘튲펰쿬룷뗘쟸닆헾릩퇸죋뿚뗄뇤뮯,헢킩틲쯘컒쏇춬퇹컞램맛닢,헢샯컒쏇폃쿘(쟸)럇맛닢킧펦u살뿘훆ꆣ(뛾)닆헾릩퇸죋뿚뫍틆횧뢶뗄뚯첬뇤뮯ꆢ쟸폲닮틬벰쿠뮥맘쾵퓚놨룦볆솿뺭볃럖컶뷡맻횮잰,컒쏇쿈쏨쫶럖컶쒣탍맘볼뇤솿뗄뚯첬뇤뮯ꆢ쟸폲닮틬벰쿠뮥횮볤뗄볲떥맘쾵ꆣ듓뚯첬뇤뮯뾴,ퟜ쳥짏,췲죋닆헾릩퇸죋뿚폫죋뻹ퟜ틆횧뢶퓚쪱볤캬뛈짏뗄춬쟷쫆맘쾵늻쫇쪮럖쏷쿔,횻쫇퓚1998쓪뫳,솽헟횮볤뗄헽쿲맘쾵닅폐쏷쿔쳥쿖(춼1)ꆣ퓚1994ꆪ2003쓪볤,췲죋ꋙ헢샯틑뾼싇쇋1994ꆪ2003쓪볤뗄쟸쿘탐헾쟸뮮뗄뇤뮯쟩뿶,뻟쳥살쮵,뒦샭쫽뻝쪱컒쏇틑붫쓇킩탐헾쟸뮮폐쯹뇤뮯뗄쿘쟸(훷튪쫇쟸쿘뫏늢)춳튻믖뢴떽2003쓪뗄탐헾쟸뮮뇪ힼ,늢붫폫듋쿠맘뗄닆헾춳볆쫽뻝ퟶ쇋쿠펦뗄뫏늢뒦샭ꆣ튻킩컞램뫏늢뗄쿘쟸놻떱ퟷ럇욽뫢뗄퇹놾뗣,틑업돽퓚놾믘맩쯹짦벰뗄1527룶퇹놾뗣횮췢쇋ꆣ74
2008쓪뗚5웚닆헾릩퇸죋뿚ퟜ쳥짏뚼뇭쿖캪퓶뎤뗄쟷쫆ꆣ돽쇋평폚1997ꆪ1999쓪볤룷뗘맺폐웳튵룄훆떼훂쇋닆헾릩퇸죋뿚쿔훸쿂붵췢,웤쯻쪱뛎닆헾릩퇸죋뿚뚼돊쿖퓶뎤쟷쫆,쳘뇰쫇2000쓪틔살퓶뎤폈웤톸쯙,쪹뗃2003쓪뗄죋뻹닆헾릩퇸죋뿚뇈샽폫맺웳듳맦쒣훘ퟩ잰뗄1998쓪뷓뷼돖욽ꆣꋙ뗘랽닆헾틆횧뢶햼횧돶뇈훘뗄뚯첬뇤뮯쳘헷퓲폐쯹늻춬,퓚헻룶1994ꆪ2003쓪볤틔1998쓪캪쇙뷧쓪럝뇭쿖캪튻룶V탍랴탍첬ꆣ1999쓪잰,쯤좻뻍좫맺뛸퇔럖쮰훆벯훐쇋닆솦,떫욽뻹뛸퇔뗘랽닆헾ퟜ횧돶훐평틆횧뢶죚뗄뇈훘좴늻뛏쿂붵ꆣ헢훷튪쫇틲캪럖쮰훆룄룯뫳뗘랽뛔놾뗘쮰풴냼삨펪튵쮰뫍쯹뗃쮰헷쫕뗄믽벫탔쿠떱룟,춬쪱훐퇫ꆢ쪡뫍쫐뛔쿘벶뗄틆횧뢶늢쎻폐췪좫룺짏,듓뛸헢튻뇈샽폐쯹쿂붵ꆣ좻뛸,쯦ퟅ닆헾벯좨뗄늻뛏볓잿,쳘뇰쫇2001쓪틔살,훐퇫뾪쪼뷸튻늽냑풭살췪좫쫴폚뗘랽뗄쯹뗃쮰뇤캪릲쿭쮰,뗘랽닆헾ퟜ횧돶훐평틆횧뢶죚뗄뇈훘톸쯙짏짽,틔닆헾벯좨캪쳘뗣뗄럖쮰훆룄룯붵뗍뗘랽풤쯣쓚횧돶죚뷡릹훐ퟔ폐쮰풴뇈훘뗄킧펦뾪쪼춹쿔ꆣ춼1ꆡ췲죋닆헾릩퇸죋뿚폫틆횧뢶햼닆헾횧돶뇈훘뗄뚯첬뇤뮯듓쟸폲닮틬뾴,췲죋닆헾릩퇸죋뿚폫틆횧뢶햼닆헾횧돶뇈훘횮볤퓲뇭쿖돶쇋쏷쿔뗄헽쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ캪쇋쿻돽쓪뛈볤뚯첬뇤뮯뫍쯦믺늨뚯,컒쏇쫗쿈붫룷쿘쟸뗄쿠맘횸뇪퓚1994ꆪ2003쓪헻룶쪱뛎짏뷸탐욽뻹;좻뫳,냑1527룶쿘쟸틆횧뢶햼닆헾횧돶뇈훘뗄쓪뛈욽뻹횵내듓킡떽듳업탲,늢럖돉10ퟩ,ퟮ뫳볆쯣쎿ퟩ쿘쟸닆헾틆횧뢶햼횧돶뗄뇈훘ꆢ췲죋닆헾릩퇸죋뿚뫍죋뻹ퟜ틆횧뢶뗄ퟩ욽뻹횵(뇭1)ꆣ룹뻝럖ퟩ춳볆뷡맻,닆헾틆횧뢶햼닆헾횧돶뇈훘풽뗍뗄ퟩ,췲죋닆헾릩퇸죋뿚풽짙;랴횮퓲쿠랴ꆣ뿉볻,췲죋닆헾릩퇸죋뿚폫틆횧뢶햼닆헾횧돶뇈훘횮볤퓚쟸폲짏듦퓚뇈뷏쏷쿔뗄헽쿲쿠맘탔,닆헾틆횧뢶뇈훘풽룟뗄뗘쟸,닆헾릩퇸죋뿚풽뛠;듋췢,췲죋닆헾릩퇸죋뿚폫죋뻹ퟜ틆횧뢶횮볤튲듦퓚럇뎣쏷쿔뗄헽쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ뇭1늻춬ퟩ쟸쿘틆횧뢶햼닆헾횧돶뇈훘ꆢ췲죋닆헾릩퇸죋뿚벰죋뻹틆횧뢶틆횧뢶햼췲죋닆헾죋뻹닆헾횧돶뇈훘(%)릩퇸죋뿚틆횧뢶틆횧뢶햼췲죋닆헾죋뻹닆헾횧돶뇈훘(%)릩퇸죋뿚틆횧뢶(풪)(풪)ퟩퟩퟩퟩퟩퟩퟩퟩퟩퟩꆡꆡ쇏살풴:ퟷ헟춳볆ꆣꋙ평폚1994ꆪ2003쓪볤쿘벶릩퇸죋뿚쫽뻝퓚럖샠짏잰뫳폐뗷헻,컒쏇컞램듓쫽뻝훐횱뷓볆쯣돶떽뗗쫇쓄킩늿쏅릩퇸죋뿚퓶볓룼뿬ꆣ떫뻝뇊헟뷼쓪살퓚늻춬뗘쟸뷸탐뗄뗷닩틔벰쿠맘퇐뺿(죧돂컽컄뗈,2002),쿘쿧닆헾릩퇸죋뿚뗄엲헍룼뛠살ퟔ폚쿘벶믺릹,쟒쫂튵떥캻뇈탐헾늿쏅퓶볓룼뿬ꆣ헢훷튪쫇틲캪쫂튵떥캻뇠훆뿘훆튪쿠뛔뿭쯉ꆣ떱탐헾늿쏅죋풱뇠훆놻룼퇏룱뿘훆횮뫳,뫜뛠쫂튵떥캻,냼삨뷌폽ꆢ얩쇖쮮웸ꆢ컄쳥맣능늿쏅,돉쇋닆헾릩퇸죋뿚퓶볓뗄훷튪늿쏅ꆣ75
풬ꆡ량뗈:닆헾벯좨맽돌훐뗄틆횧뢶뫍닆헾릩퇸죋뿚맦쒣엲헍컒쏇뷸튻늽춨맽즢뗣춼살럖컶닆헾릩퇸죋뿚뫍틆횧뢶볤뗄볲떥쿠맘맘쾵(춼2)ꆣ쏦냥쫽뻝볦폐쪱볤탲쇐뫍뫡뷘쏦쫽뻝,웤훐쪱볤탲쇐쫽뻝쏨쫶뇤솿뗄뚯첬뇤뮯,뫡뷘쏦쫽뻝쏨쫶뇤솿뗄쟸폲닮틬,틲듋,쏦냥쫽뻝춬쪱냼몬쇋뇤솿뗄뚯첬뇤뮯탅쾢(ퟩ쓚탅쾢)뫍쟸폲닮틬탅쾢(ퟩ볤탅쾢)ꆣ럖뇰쪹폃ퟩ쓚탅쾢뫍ퟩ볤탅쾢,컒쏇폃즢뗣춼쏨믦쇋닆헾릩퇸죋뿚뫍틆횧뢶볤뗄뚯첬맘쾵뫍쟸폲맘쾵ꆣ춬쪱,컒쏇튲ퟛ뫏퓋폃쇋ퟩ쓚뫍ퟩ볤탅쾢,믬뫏퓋폃쏦냥쫽뻝뷸탐쇋럖컶ꆣ듓춼훐컒쏇뿉틔쟥돾뗘뾴떽,컞싛폃믬뫏탅쾢,뮹쫇폃ퟩ볤탅쾢,짏쫶솽맘볼뇤솿횮볤뻹듦퓚ퟅ쏷쿔뗄헽쿠맘맘쾵;늻맽,컒쏇튲뾴떽샻폃ퟩ쓚탅쾢뾴늻돶솽헟횮볤폐쏷쿔뗄헽쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ닆헾릩퇸죋뿚뫍틆횧뢶퓚쪱볤캬뛈짏쎻폐볲떥쿠맘맘쾵늢늻튻뚨뇭쏷솽헟횮볤뻍쎻폐맘쾵,뫜뿉쓜쫇평폚컒쏇헢샯쎻폐뿘훆탭뛠뛔솽룶뇤솿폐훘듳펰쿬뗄틲쯘,듓뛸솽헟횮볤뗄헦헽맘쾵놻퇚룇쇋웰살ꆣ쿠뇈횮쿂,ퟩ볤탅쾢업돽쇋헢샠컊쳢뗄닺짺ꆣ늻맽,컒쏇튲펦룃힢틢,쟸폲짏컒쏇뾴떽뗄솽헟볤쿔훸헽쿠맘맘쾵튲뿉쓜늢늻쫇솽헟횮볤뗄헦헽틲맻맘쾵,튻훖뿉쓜쫇헢솽룶뇤솿춬쪱쫜떽쟸폲웤쯻튻킩틲쯘뗄릲춬펰쿬뛸닺짺쇋쿠맘맘쾵ꆣ캪쇋뒦샭헢룶컊쳢틔좷솢솽헟횮볤뗄틲맻맘쾵,쿂튻늿럖컒쏇튻랽쏦붫퓚뿘훆샽죧쟸폲탩쓢뇤솿ꆢ돇쫐뮯쮮욽ꆢ뺭볃랢햹쮮욽뗈틲쯘뗄쟩뿶쿂퓋폃볆솿뺭볃쒣탍살럖컶틆횧뢶뛔닆헾릩퇸죋뿚엲헍뗄헦헽펰쿬;쇭튻랽쏦컒쏇튲붫럖뇰맀볆솽헟퓚뚯첬쪱볤짏뫍쟸폲짏뗄맘쾵살볬퇩볆솿럖컶뷡맻뗄컈붡탔ꆣ춼2ꆡ췲죋닆헾릩퇸죋뿚폫틆횧뢶햼닆헾횧돶뇈샽맘쾵즢뗣춼ꆡ(죽)볆솿뺭볃럖컶뷡맻룹뻝뛔럇맛닢킧펦뗄늻춬볙짨,럇맛닢킧펦쏦냥쫽뻝쒣탍뗄맀볆뿉닉폃만뚨킧펦(FE)뒦샭뫍쯦믺킧펦(RE)뒦샭솽훖랽램,잰헟퓋폃OLS맀볆램뗃떽만뚨킧펦맀볆솿,뫳헟퓋폃FGLS맀볆램뗃떽쯦믺킧펦맀볆솿ꆣ럇맛닢킧펦u놻짨뚨캪만뚨킧펦뮹쫇쯦믺킧펦훷튪좡뻶폚뛔럇맛닢킧펦u폫뷢쫍뇤솿맘쾵뗄볙짨ꆣ죧맻볙짨럇맛닢킧펦u폫뷢쫍뇤솿볤듦퓚쿠맘맘쾵,퓲쯦믺킧펦맀볆솿뻍쫇럇튻훂뗄,뛸만뚨킧펦맀볆솿쓜릻뗃떽튻훂탔맀볆ꋙ;죧맻볙짨럇맛닢킧펦u폫뷢쫍뇤솿횮볤늻듦퓚맘쾵,쓇쎴만뚨킧펦맀볆솿뫍쯦믺킧펦맀볆솿뚼쫇튻훂맀볆솿,떫평폚쯦믺킧펦맀볆ퟛ뫏퓋폃쇋ퟩ쓚뫍ퟩ볤탅쾢,맀볆킧싊쿠뛔룼룟ꆣ쇭췢,룹뻝쏦냥쫽뻝뗄탅쾢쪹폃살뾴,럇맛닢킧펦쒣탍닎쫽맀볆솿폖뿉틔럖캪ퟩ쓚맀볆솿(벴만뚨킧펦맀볆솿)뫍ퟩ볤맀볆솿,웤훐만뚨킧펦맀볆솿훷튪닉폃ퟩ쓚탅쾢,랴펳쇋뇤솿볤쪱볤캬뛈짏뗄맘쾵,뛸ퟩ볤맀볆솿훷튪닉폃ퟩ볤탅쾢,랴펳쇋뇤솿볤뿕볤캬뛈짏뗄맘쾵ꆣ평폚쫽뻝쫇튻룶쏦냥쫽뻝,쯹틔죧맻퓚뿘훆만뚨킧펦뗄춬쪱,뿘훆쪱볤탩쓢뇤ꋙ만뚨킧펦뒦샭쪵볊짏쫇퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏뿘훆쇋늿럖틅슩뇤솿떼훂뗄쓚짺탔컊쳢ꆣ76
2008쓪뗚5웚솿,쓇쎴뗃떽뗄닎쫽맀볆붫쫇ퟩ쓚맀볆폫ퟩ볤맀볆뗄튻룶볓좨욽뻹ꆣꋙ퓚놾퇐뺿훐,믹폚틔쿂솽랽쏦뗄뾼싇,컒쏇쫗쿈퓚만뚨킧펦뫍쯦믺킧펦뒦샭짏톡퓱쇋만뚨킧펦뒦샭:1)뛔만뚨킧펦뫍쯦믺킧펦맀볆솿뇈뷏뗄Hausman볬퇩뇭쏷,만뚨킧펦폫쯦믺킧펦맀볆솿볤폐쾵춳닮틬,쯦믺킧펦맀볆솿럇튻훂;2)듓뺭퇩짏뾴,컒쏇뗄퇹놾쿘냼삨쇋좫맺듳뛠쫽쿘,만뚨킧펦짨뚨뷏캪뫏쫊ꆣ웤듎,뾼싇떽잰쏦쏨쫶탔럖컶랢쿖,틆횧뢶햼닆헾횧돶뇈훘폫닆헾릩퇸죋뿚맘쾵퓚뷘쏦뫍쪱볤솽룶캬뛈뗄맘쾵뿉쓜폐쯹닮틬,컒쏇퓚맀볆쒣탍(1)뗄쪱뫲,튻랽쏦맀볆쇋(뿘훆쪱볤뫍쿘탩쓢뇤솿뗄)쮫쿲만뚨킧펦쒣탍,튲럖뇰맀볆쇋뷢쫍뇤솿쯦쪱볤뇤뮯뛔놻뷢쫍뇤솿펰쿬뗄ퟩ쓚맀볆솿뫍뷢쫍뇤솿뗘쟸볤닮틬뛔놻뷢쫍뇤솿펰쿬뗄ퟩ볤맀볆솿ꆣퟮ뫳,뺡맜만뚨킧펦뒦샭틲캪뿘훆쇋틲뗘쟸늻춬떫쯦쪱늻뇤틲쯘(벴럇맛닢킧펦)뛸퓚튻뚨돌뛈짏뿘훆쇋헢늿럖틲쯘틅슩뿉쓜떼훂뗄쓚짺탔컊쳢,떫평폚잰쫶맀볆뮹뿉쓜평폚틅슩틲뗘쟸늻춬늢쯦쪱볤뇤뮯뗄틲쯘,믲헟룼캪뢴퓓뗄틲맻랴삡맘쾵뛸떼훂쓚짺탔컊쳢,퇐뺿훐컒쏇뮹닉좡쇋릤뻟뇤솿램(IV)ꆣ평폚ퟩ볤맀볆쯦쪱늻뇤틲쯘(럇맛닢킧펦)튲쎻폐뿘훆,릤뻟뇤솿맀볆램뛔ퟩ볤맀볆믱좡튻훂맀볆솿폈캪훘튪ꆣ퓋폃릤뻟뇤솿램뷢뻶쓚짺탔컊쳢맘볼튪틀삵폚폐킧뗄릤뻟뇤솿ꆣ쒣탍(1)훐맘볼뗄뷢쫍뇤솿쫇틆횧뢶햼놾뗘닆헾횧돶뗄뇈훘뫍죋뻹ퟜ틆횧뢶,컒쏇틔퇹놾쿘1993쓪쫇럱캪맺볒벶욶삧쿘헢튻탩쓢뇤솿P(죧맻퇹놾쿘쫇맺볒벶욶삧쿘,뇤솿좡횵캪1,럱퓲좡횵캪0)캪믹뒡짨볆쇋튻룶뇤솿ퟷ캪릤뻟뇤솿살뒦샭짏쫶뇤솿뗄쓚짺탔컊쳢ꆣꋚ1994ꆪ2000쓪쫇컒맺ꆰ냋웟럶욶볆뮮ꆱ횴탐쪱웚,퓚듋횮잰뗄1993쓪맺볒좷뚨쇋튻엺맺볒벶욶삧쿘,2001쓪맺볒뛔맺볒벶욶삧쿘뷸탐쇋뗷헻,듋뫳럶욶릤ퟷ뷸죫쇋튻룶탂뗄뷗뛎,컞싛퓚럶욶뷰뗄춶죫솿뫍랽쿲짏뚼돶쿖쇋쿔훸뇤뮯(췴죽맳뗈,2004),틲듋,쳘뚨쿘1993쓪놻뚨캪맺볒벶욶삧쿘뫳뛔웤믱좡틆횧뢶뗄펰쿬퓚2001쓪잰뫳믡듳늻쿠춬ꆣ헢샯컒쏇볙짨뇤솿P퓚2001쓪잰뗄펰쿬뫣뚨,늻쯦쓪럝뇤뮯,2001쓪틔뫳랢짺뇤뮯ꆣ캪듋,컒쏇폖짨뚨쇋튻룶쪱웚탩쓢뇤솿T00(2001쓪잰캪1,2001쓪틔뫳캪0),좻뫳붫솽룶탩쓢뇤솿P폫T00쿠돋뗃떽튻룶탂뗄뇤솿PT00,ퟮ훕컒쏇폃뇤솿PT00ퟷ캪닆헾틆횧뢶햼닆헾횧돶뇈훘뫍죋뻹ퟜ틆횧뢶뗄릤뻟뇤솿ꆣ헢튻뇤솿럻뫏폐킧릤뻟뇤솿쯹뇘탨뗄솽룶쳵볾:쫗쿈,쿠뇈폚웤쯻쿘벶탐헾떥캻,맺볒벶욶삧쿘튻냣쓜뗃떽훐퇫뫍쪡뗄훘튪뷰럶돖,쳘뇰쫇룷훖탎쪽뗄럶욶틆횧뢶,틲듋,폐돤럖샭평볙짨퇹놾쿘쫇럱캪맺볒벶욶삧쿘믡쏷쿔펰쿬쿘죋뻹ퟜ틆횧뢶뫍닆헾틆횧뢶햼닆헾횧돶뗄뇈훘ꆣ뫳쏦뗄볆솿뺭볃럖컶훐,컒쏇춨맽믘맩럖컶튲좷쪵랢쿖뇤솿PT00뛔쒣탍(1)훐뗄W폐쿔훸뗄욫킧펦ꆣ웤듎,쒣탍(1)훐뗄놻뷢쫍뇤솿뫍뛠쫽뷢쫍뇤솿뚼쫇1994ꆪ2003쓪뗄,뛸뇤솿P쫇1993쓪좷뚨뗄,쫇훍뫳뇤솿,뛸쟒뾼싇떽쳘뚨쿘1993쓪쫇럱놻뚨캪맺볒벶욶삧쿘퓚쒣탍(1)뗄럖컶뿲볜쓚놻죏캪쫇쓚짺뗄샭평튲늻ퟣ,틲듋,뇤솿P튲쓜릻듯떽릤뻟뇤솿뛔췢짺탔뗄튪쟳ꆣ뇭2놨룦쇋쒣탍(1)뗄볆솿뺭볃럖컶뷡맻ꆣꋛퟜ쳥살뾴,쒣탍뗄ퟜ쳥쓢뫏폅뛈뫜쿔훸,컞싛쫇ퟩ쓚ꆢퟩ볤맀볆뷡맻,뮹쫇쮫쿲만뚨킧펦쒣탍,뚼뮹쓜릻뇈뷏뫃뗘뷢쫍닆헾릩퇸죋뿚뗄뚯첬뇤뮯ꆢ쟸폲닮틬뫍(냼몬뚯첬폫쟸폲뇤뮯뗄)ퟛ뫏킧펦ꆣ뛔쒣탍뗄Hausman쓚짺탔볬퇩뇭쏷,쒣탍훐뗄맘볼뷢쫍뇤솿좷쪵뚼듦퓚쓚짺탔컊쳢,OLS맀볆뷡맻쫇폐욫컳뗄,릤뻟뇤솿램뗄맀볆뷡맻쫇튻훂뗄ꆣꋙ튻냣뛸퇔,럇맛닢킧펦쏦냥쫽뻝쒣탍닎쫽뗄ퟩ쓚맀볆솿폫ퟩ볤맀볆솿퓚뷢쫍짏싔폐닮틬ꆣ죧맻ퟩ볤캬뛈쫇뗘쟸,ퟩ쓚캬뛈쫇쪱볤뗄뮰,ퟩ쓚맀볆솿펦룃뷢쫍돉쯹폐뗘쟸욽뻹살쮵,뷢쫍뇤솿쯦ퟅ쪱볤뇤뮯뛔놻뷢쫍뇤솿뇤뮯뗄펰쿬;뛸ퟩ볤맀볆솿펦룃뷢쫍돉헻룶쪱볤뛎짏욽뻹살쮵,뷢쫍뇤솿뗘쟸볤닮틬뛔놻뷢쫍뇤솿뗘쟸볤닮틬뗄뷢쫍ꆣꋚ1993쓪,훐맺헾뢮좷뚨틔훐컷늿짙쫽쏱ퟥ뗘쟸ꆢ룯쏼샏쟸ꆢ뇟붮뗘쟸뫍쳘삧뗘쟸ퟷ캪럶욶뾪랢훘뗣,늢좷뚨쇋맺볒벶욶삧쿘592룶(췴죽맳뗈,2004)ꆣꋛ평폚욪럹폐쿞,헢샯횻놨룦쇋냼몬1527룶뻟폐좫늿10쓪쫽뻝탅쾢뗄쿘쟸뗄욽뫢쫽뻝쒣탍뗄믘맩,떫컒쏇튲ퟶ쇋냼몬2723룶쿘쟸뗄럇욽뫢쫽뻝쒣탍뗄믘맩,웤뷡맻폫뇭2뷡맻튻훂ꆣ77
풬ꆡ량뗈:닆헾벯좨맽돌훐뗄틆횧뢶뫍닆헾릩퇸죋뿚맦쒣엲헍틔쿂쳖싛컒쏇뚼믹폚릤뻟뇤솿램맀볆뷡맻ꆣ뇭2닆헾틆횧뢶뇈샽뛔닆헾릩퇸죋뿚펰쿬뗄믘맩뷡맻췲죋닆헾릩퇸죋뿚OLS맀볆뷡맻IV맀볆뷡맻쮫만뚨킧펦ퟩ쓚맀볆ퟩ볤맀볆쮫만뚨킧펦ퟩ쓚맀볆ퟩ볤맀볆틆횧뢶횸뇪틆횧뢶햼횧돶뇈훘(%)()()()()()()뿘훆틲쯘돇쫐뮯싊(%)()()()()()()죋뻹GDP뛔쫽()333333()()()()()죋뻹GDP뛔쫽욽랽()()()()()()죋뿚맦쒣뛔쫽()()()()()()맛닢횵152231522315223152231522315223ퟩ룶쫽152715271527152715271527ꆡꆡ힢:삨뫅쓚캪t횵믲F횵ꆰ,333ꆱꆢꆰ33ꆱꆢꆰ3ꆱ럖뇰뇭쪾1%ꆢ5%ꆢ10%뗄쿔훸탔쮮욽ꆣ볆솿럖컶뷡맻뇭쏷,ퟜ쳥짏,돇쫐뮯ꆢ뺭볃랢햹쮮욽뫍죋뿚맦쒣뛔닆헾릩퇸죋뿚뇤뮯뚼폐튻뚨뗄펰쿬ꆣ뻟쳥뛸퇔,듓쿔훸뗄닎쫽맀볆살뾴,돇쫐뮯뛔닆헾릩퇸죋뿚폐헽쏦펰쿬;뺭볃랢햹쮮욽뛔닆헾릩퇸죋뿚튲폐뇈뷏쏷쿔뗄펰쿬,떫맘쾵뇈뷏뢴퓓,늻쫇럇뎣쏷좷;죋뿚맦쒣뛔닆헾릩퇸죋뿚퓲폐쿔훸뗄뢺펰쿬,뇭쏷닆헾릩퇸죋뿚듦퓚튻뚨뗄ꆰ맦쒣뺭볃ꆱꆣ탨튪볓틔쮵쏷뗄쫇,뿘훆뇤솿뛔닆헾릩퇸죋뿚뗄펰쿬퓚ퟩ쓚맀볆뫍ퟩ볤맀볆볤듦퓚튻뚨돌뛈늻튻훂뗄뗘랽ꆣ헢훷튪쫇틲캪헢솽훖맀볆럖뇰쪹폃쇋쏦냥쫽뻝뗄ퟩ쓚탅쾢뫍ퟩ볤탅쾢살맀볆쒣탍닎쫽,뛸컒쏇쪹폃뗄쏦냥쫽뻝뗄ퟩ쓚탅쾢뗄뇤틬돌뛈뇈ퟩ볤탅쾢킡뗃뛠,뇈죧,돇쫐뮯싊뗄ퟩ볤뇪ힼ닮캪0123,뛸ퟩ쓚뇪ힼ닮캪0103,죋뻹GDP뗄ퟩ볤뇪ힼ닮캪0179,ퟩ쓚뇪ힼ닮캪0130,헢뿉쓜믡떼훂ퟩ쓚맀볆뫍ퟩ볤맀볆훐튻킩뿘훆뇤솿뗄펰쿬폐쯹뇤뮯ꆣ떫쫇,훘튪뗄쫇,뺡맜ퟩ볤맀볆뫍ퟩ쓚맀볆퓚뿘훆뇤솿뗄펰쿬짏폐늻튻훂뗄뗘랽,떫컒쏇ퟮ캪맘힢뗄맘볼뇤솿벴틆횧뢶햼횧돶뇈훘뛔닆헾릩퇸죋뿚뗄펰쿬퓚늻춬쒣탍뫍맀볆훐뚼쫇럇뎣쏷좷뫍튻훂뗄,헢랴펳돶맘볼뇤솿폫닆헾릩퇸죋뿚뗄맀볆뷡맻럇뎣컈붡ꆣퟮ뫳튪쮵쏷뗄쫇,듓릤뻟뇤솿램뗄맀볆뷡맻짏살뾴,쳘뇰쫇ퟩ쓚맀볆훐,죋뻹GDP믲웤욽랽쿮뛔죋뻹닆헾릩퇸죋뿚퓚춳볆뾴듳뚼듦퓚헽뗄쿔훸펰쿬,벴떱뿘훆웤쯻틲쯘뗄쳵볾쿂,죋뻹GDP퓶볓(떽튻뚨돌뛈),믡떼훂룼뛠죋뻹닆헾릩퇸죋뿚ꆣ탨튪횸돶,평폚쫽뻝쯹쿞,컒쏇뛔폚닆헾릩퇸죋뿚뷡릹,죧탐헾ꆢ쫂튵떥캻죋뿚컞램뷸튻늽쟸럖,뛸쟒벴쪹쟸럖,벼쫵짏튲컞램췪좫에뛏쫇럱헢킩죋뿚캪죟폠죋뿚(뇈죧캪붨솢뗘랽헾훎횧돖ꆢ놣돖컈뚨뛸릩퇸,떫뛔릫릲럾컱틢틥늻듳뗄죋뿚),뮹쫇쓜쳡릩폐킧럾컱뗄릫릲늿쏅죋풱ꆣ떫탨튪힢틢뗄쫇,헽쫇믘맩뿘훆쇋뗘랽죋뻹GDP뫍GDP욽랽쿮,쟒쯦ퟅGDP뗄퓶볓,죋뻹닆헾릩퇸죋뿚뇈샽뻟폐볓쯙짏짽쟷쫆,헢늻뷶폫틑폐샭싛뫍쪵횤컄쿗78
2008쓪뗚5웚뇈뷏튻훂(벴뛔헾뢮릫릲럾컱탨쟳ꆢ헾뢮맦쒣,냼삨릫릲늿쏅뻍튵죋뿚뚼쯦GDP퓶볓뛸짏짽),뛸쟒튲퓚쿠떱돌뛈짏뿘훆쇋쓇킩틲뺭볃랢햹뛸뇘탫퓶볓뗄릫릲럾컱죋풱ꆣ룼훘튪뗄쫇,짏쫶쯹폐쳖싛,뚼붨솢퓚컒맺뗘랽닆헾릩퇸죋뿚욫뛠쟒퓶뎤쯙뛈맽뿬헢퇹튻훖쒿잰톧쫵뷧뫍헾뢮맜샭늿쏅뗄믹놾릲쪶횮짏,뛸놾컄쒿뗄뻍쫇듓헾뢮볤닆헾맘쾵뗄뷇뛈럖컶떼훂헢훖쟩뿶닺짺뗄쳥훆탔틲쯘ꆣ컥ꆢ뷡ꆡ싛ퟮ뷼10뛠쓪틔살,컒맺뗄닆헾쳥훆뾪쪼돶쿖쫕죫늻뛏벯좨뛸횧돶퓰죎늻뛏쿂럅뗄쟷쫆ꆣ퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,뗘랽닆헾죕틦틀뾿짏벶틆횧뢶ꆣ럖쮰훆쪵탐틔살,훐컷늿뗘랽헾뢮뿉횧엤닆솦훐훐퇫늹훺쯹햼뗄뇈훘늻뛏쳡룟,훐늿뗘쟸폐킩쿘쫐헢룶뇈훘뎬맽50%,뛸컷늿폐킩욶삧뗘쟸뗄훐퇫늹훺룟듯뗘랽ퟔ짭닆헾쫕죫뗄10놶쓋훁20놶ꆣ춬쪱,웈폚닆헾톹솦,뗘랽룷훖럇헽쪽쮰쫕캪훷뗄풤쯣췢닆헾튲늻뛏퓶볓,늢듸살튻쾵쇐짧믡쎬뛜ꆣꋙ퓚뗘랽죕틦틀뾿틆횧뢶뫍풤쯣췢쫕죫뗄춬쪱,뗘랽닆헾릩퇸죋풱뇈훘좴뇭쿖돶뷏뿬퓶뎤ꆣ뻍쿘쿧믹닣헾뢮살뾴,벴쪹퓚랢듯뗘쟸튲돶쿖쇋ꆰ풤쯣쓚룣돔랹,풤쯣췢룣붨짨ꆱ뗄쟩뿶,뛸잷랢듯뗘쟸퓲쫇ꆰ놾뗘쮰쫕뫍쿠떱늿럖틆횧뢶룣돔랹,늿럖틆횧뢶룣붨짨ꆱꆣ헻쳥살뾴,풤쯣쓚닆헾퓚뫜듳돌뛈짏돉캪쇋ꆰ돔랹ꆱ닆헾ꆣ폈웤퓚잷랢듯뗘쟸,튻떩듳늿럖쿘쿧횧돶폃폚횧뢶릤뫍룷샠탐헾횧돶,릫릲럾컱쫽솿늻ퟣꆢ훊솿뗍쿂뗄컊쳢뻍죕틦춻돶ꆣ캪듙뷸늻춬쟸폲볤벰돇쿧볤뗄킭뗷랢햹,훐퇫헾뢮볆뮮퓚캴살튻뛎쪱웚쓚볓잿뛔잷랢듯뗘쟸틔벰얩튵ꆢ얩듥랢햹뗄춶죫ꆣ쯦ퟅ뷼쓪살훐퇫닆솦뗄듳듳볓잿,틔룷훖틆횧뢶탎쪽뛔실뫳뗘쟸뫍얩튵훷닺쟸뗄닆헾춶죫좷쪵듳럹뛈퓶볓ꆣ떫쫇,헽죧놾컄쪵횤럖컶쯹뷒쪾뗄,벴쪹헢킩춶죫폐훺폚뮺뷢잷랢듯뗘쟸뗄닆헾삧뺳,좴컞램듓룹놾짏뷢뻶헢킩뗘쟸뗄믹닣헾뢮듙뷸놾뗘뺭볃랢햹ꆢ쳡릩폅훊릫릲럾컱뗄벤샸컊쳢,랴뛸뿉쓜틽웰뗘랽헾뢮죋풱맦쒣퓶볓뫍닆헾릩퇸죋뿚뇈훘짏짽ꆣ쪵볊짏,퓚컒맺쒿잰뗄헾뢮맜샭쳥훆쿂,짏벶헾뢮쏦쇙ퟅ컞싛퓶볓쓄훖틆횧뢶뚼뿉쓜듸살컊쳢뗄솽쓑뒦뺳ꆣ죧20쫀볍90쓪듺훐뫳웚햼훷떼뗘캻뗄쿮틆횧뢶,뻍쏦쇙튻룶짏벶헾뢮늢늻죧뗘랽헾뢮쇋뷢놾뗘쪵볊탨튪,틆횧뢶폫떱뗘탨튪쓑틔럻뫏뗄컊쳢ꆣ룼퇏훘뗄쫇,쯼쪹뗃뗘랽헾뢮폐뫜잿뚯믺춨맽엜ꆰ늿ꆱꆰ잮ꆱ뷸,늢춨맽ꆰ퇹ퟓ릤돌ꆱ뗈쿔쪾헾벨뗄랽쪽살헹좡풴,췹췹늻쓜뛔쏩ힼ죋좺듸살쪵볊뫃뒦ꆣ뛸캪뿋럾쿮횧뢶맽폚쇩믮뫍쯦틢,쟒컞램듙뷸쪵쿖쟸폲볤릫릲럾컱뻹뗈뮯쒿뇪뗄컊쳢,뷼쓪살헾뢮뾪쪼쏷쿔퓶볓룼뻟폐맦퓲탔ꆢ내릫쪽볆쯣늢럖엤뗄튻냣탔틆횧뢶ꆣ떫평폚뗘랽퓚튻냣탔틆횧뢶뗄쪹폃짏뻟폐뷏듳ퟔ훷탔,뗘랽헾뢮뻍뫜죝틗냑짏벶틆횧뢶폃폚ꆰ돔랹닆헾ꆱ뫍죋춷럑뾪횧ꆣퟜ쳥살뾴,퓚뗘랽헾뢮뛔놾뗘냙탕컞램돤럖뢺퓰ꆢ쟒짏벶폖뿘훆훷튪닆헾풴늢춨맽틆횧뢶캪뗘랽죚뗄닆헾뫍탐헾벯좨쳥훆쿂,늢늻듦퓚튻룶훆뛈탔뗄믺훆살좷놣짏벶닆헾풴뗄폐킧쪹폃ꆣ듓헢룶틢틥짏뾴,닆헾짏룼볓럖좨뫍탐헾맜샭짏룼폐믹닣닎폫탔뗄쳥훆붫늻뷶폐샻폚뿘훆헾뢮죟풱뗄퓶뎤,튲붫듙뷸릫릲럾컱뗄폐킧쳡릩ꆣꋙ뗘랽헾뢮횮쯹틔튪돩좡헢킩럇헽쪽쫕죫,쪵볊짏쫇퓚닆헾쳥훆벯훐ꆢ틆횧뢶늻ퟣ,뛸ퟔ짭쏦쇙쿖폐룷훖뾼뫋톹솦쟩뿶쿂뗄뇘좻탐캪,튲뿉틔샭뷢캪훐퇫닆헾벯좨뫳쒬탭뗄뗘랽헾뢮럇헽쪽쮰쫕뗄ퟔ훷좨ꆣ뛸튻떩헢훖ퟔ훷좨놻뢳폨뗘랽헾뢮,퓚좱랦훆풼믺훆쪱,뗘랽헾뢮뻍폐뚯믺좥샄폃,뷡맻쫇릤짌튵믹뒡뷏놡죵뗄얩튵훷닺쟸돶쿖틲싒쫕럑뛸떼훂뗄얩쏱뢺떣컊쳢;뛸릤짌튵뷏랢듯뗘쟸뗄헾뢮튲폐뚯믺ퟪ쒿잰췁뗘헷폃쳥훆짐캴쫐뎡뮯뗄뿕ퟓ,춨맽뗍볛헷뗘냾뛡얩쏱ꆣ튻떩짏쫶쟩뿶싻퇓,뻍뇘좻듸살듳솿짧믡쎬뛜,쓋훁췾킲짧믡컈뚨ꆣퟮ훕,훐퇫헾뢮놻웈뷸탐쮰럑쳥훆뫍췁뗘맜샭쳥훆룄룯,살풼쫸뗘랽헾뢮뗄탐캪ꆣ떫헢뇘탫춨맽뷸튻늽뗄닆헾뫍탐헾벯좨랽쪽살췪돉ꆣ뇈죧,쿷죵뗘랽헾뢮럇헽쪽쮰쫕좨솦,붨솢뒹횱뗄췁뗘맜샭쒣쪽,짏쫕췁뗘헷폃뫍엺ퟢ뗄좨솦,뿘훆풤쯣췢닆좨뗈뗈ꆣ퓚헢훖쟩뿶쿂,훐퇫횻쓜춨맽뷸튻늽퓶듳틆횧뢶쏖늹뗘랽쫕횧닮뻠,뛸룹뻝놾컄럖컶,헢뿉쓜듸살닆헾릩퇸죋뿚뗄뷸튻늽퓶볓ꆣ79
풬ꆡ량뗈:닆헾벯좨맽돌훐뗄틆횧뢶뫍닆헾릩퇸죋뿚맦쒣엲헍닎뾼컄쿗닆헾늿,1995ꆪ2004ꆶ:좫맺뗘쫐쿘닆헾춳볆쇏ꆷ,훐맺닆헾뺭볃돶냦짧ꆣ돂컽컄훷뇠,2002ꆶ:훐맺쿘쿧닆헾폫얩쏱퓶쫕컊쳢퇐뺿ꆷ,즽컷뺭볃돶냦짧ꆣ췴죽맳ꆢ샮훜ꆢ죎퇠쮳,2004ꆶ:훐맺뗄ꆰ냋웟럶욶릥볡볆뮮ꆱ:맺볒햽싔벰웤펰쿬ꆷ,짏몣럶욶듳믡듳맦쒣복욶낸샽퇐뺿ꆣ퇮횮룕,2004ꆶ:훐맺럖쮰닆헾쳥훆:컊쳢돉틲뫍룄룯붨틩ꆷꆶ,닆쎳뺭볃ꆷ뗚10웚ꆣ헔쫷뾭,2005ꆶ:쿧헲룄룯:볬쳖폫햹췻ꆪꆪꆪ10쪡(쟸)20쿧(헲)뗷닩ꆷꆶ,짧믡삶욤쫩2005쓪:훐맺짧믡탎쫆럖컶폫풤닢ꆷ,짧믡뿆톧컄쿗돶냦짧ꆣBesley,TimothyandStephenCoate,2001,ꆰCentralizedversusDecentralizedProvisionofLocalPublicGoods:APoliticalEconomyAnalysisꆱ,,Maite,,2003,ꆰFiscalFederalism,GoodGovernance,andEconomicGrowthinMexicoꆱ,inDaniRodrik(eds.),InSearchofProsperity:AnalyticNarrativesonEconomicGrowth,,.,Yilmaz,S.,2002,ꆰOntheMeasurementandImpactofFiscalDecentralizationꆱ,WorldBank,Washington,,2006,ꆰIntergovernmentalFiscalRelationsinChinaꆱ,PaperpreparedfortheStanfordConferenceonEconomicChallengesinAsia,June1ꆪ,2002,ꆰTheDilemmaofFiscalFederalism:GrantsandFiscalPerformancearoundtheWorldꆱ,(July),670ꆪ,Kai2yuen,2005,ꆰLocalTaxSystem,IntergovernmentalTransfersandChinapisLocalFiscalDisparitiesꆱ,JournalofComparativeEconomics33(1),173ꆪ,2002,ꆰFiscalGamesandPublicEmployment:ATheorywithEvidencefromRussiaꆱ,WorldPolitics,54(2),145ꆪ,Barry,2000,ꆰTheTheoryofComparativeFederalismandtheEmergenceofEconomicLiberalizationinMexico,China,andIndiaꆱ,,Christine,2000,ꆰCentral2localRelationsRevisited:The1994TaxSharingReformandPublicExpenditureManagementinChinaꆱ,ChinaPerspective,Number31,,2002,ꆰChinaNationalDevelopmentandSub2nationalFinance:AReviewofProvincialExpendituresꆱ.FiscalTransfersandExpansionofFiscalDependentsinChinapisfiscalRecentralizationYuanFaei,TaoRaan,XuZahigangandLbiuMingxing(a:CenterforChineseAgriculturalPolicy,ChineseAcademyofSciences;b:ChinaInstituteforEducationFinanceResearch,PekingUniversity;ChinaEconomyandManagementAcademy,CentralUniversityofEconomicsandFinance)Abstract:Basedonthetheoreticalliteratureoffiscaldecentralization,,,:FiscalCentralization;Transfers;ExpansionofFiscalDependentsJELClassification:H710,H730(퓰죎뇠벭:쯉ꆡ쒾)(킣뛔:ퟓꆡ)80
