샮ꆡ쳎ꆢ맹ꆡ뷜:럧쿕첬뛈폫막욱춶럧쿕첬뛈폫막욱춶3샮ꆡ쳎ꆡ맹ꆡ뷜ꆡꆡ쓚죝쳡튪:믹폚2007쓪훐맺15돇쫐뻓쏱춶탐캪뗷닩쫽뻝,놾컄랢쿖,뻓쏱뗄럧쿕첬뛈뛔웤쫇럱춶막욱쎻폐쿔훸펰쿬,헢폫틑폐컷랽컄쿗뗄폐맘랢쿖뷘좻늻춬ꆣ컒쏇쳡돶쇋튻룶탂뗄샭싛뷢쫍:짧믡뮥뚯뿉틔늻춬돌뛈뗘붵뗍뻓쏱뛔막욱춶럧쿕뗄훷맛룐횪돌뛈,헢쪹뗃뻓쏱럧쿕첬뛈퓚뷢쫍웤쫇럱춶막욱쪱늻퓙쿔훸ꆣ쾸럖퇹놾뗄믘맩랢쿖뫍춳볆볬퇩쿔쪾:짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈뷏뗍뗄뻓쏱웤뻸뛔럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈쿔훸랴쿲펰쿬ퟅ쯻춶막욱뗄뿉쓜,뛸짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈뷏룟뗄뻓쏱웤뻸뛔럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈뛔쯻쫇럱춶막욱쎻폐쿔훸펰쿬;럧쿕첬뛈뗄펰쿬퓚퇹놾볤듦퓚ퟅ쿔훸닮틬ꆣ헢횧돖쇋컒쏇뗄샭싛뷢쫍ꆣ놾컄뗄헾닟몭틥퓚폚:룹뻝짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈뛔막쏱헫뛔탔뗘뷸탐럧쿕뷌폽,쪹웤죏쪶떽ퟔ벺퓚듳훚닎폫막쫐쪱뛔럧쿕뗄싩뇔틢쪶,헢쫇듙뷸막욱쫐뎡돖탸붡뾵랢햹뫍퓶뷸춶헟뢣샻뗄헾뢮헾닟탨튪짮죫뾼싇뗄ꆣ맘볼듊:럧쿕ꆡ짧믡뮥뚯ꆡ막욱춶튻ꆢ틽ꆡ퇔20쫀볍90쓪듺틔살훐맺막욱쫐뎡돊쿖돶쇋룟쯙랢햹룱뻖,뺳쓚짏쫐릫쮾쫽ꆢ막욱돯ퟜ뛮ꆢ막욱쫐볛ퟜ횵럖뇰평1990쓪뗄10볒ꆢ1991쓪뗄3틚풪ꆢ1992쓪뗄1048틚풪퓶훁2007쓪뗄1550볒ꆢ8432틚풪ꆢ327141틚풪ꆣꋙ훐맺뻓쏱닎폫막욱쫐뎡뗄뻸뛔죋뿚맦쒣뫍쿠뛔죋뿚뇈훘퓚듋웚볤뚼폐뫜듳뗄쳡룟ꋚ:뷘훁2007쓪쒩,룶죋춶헟폐킧막욱헋뮧릲볆9280159췲룶,듺뇭쇋5568췲쏻룶죋춶헟,풼햼컒맺돇헲죋뿚뗄12%뫍좫맺죋뿚뗄4%(훐맺뷡쯣쫽뻝춳볆럖컶킡ퟩ,2008)ꆣ폫헢훖늻뛏쳡룟뗄뻓쏱닎폫막쫐맦쒣뫍뇈샽횱뷓쿠맘뗄튻룶컊쳢쫇,쪲쎴틲쯘펰쿬ퟅ훐맺뻓쏱춶막욱?뛔헢튻컊쳢뗄뷢듰늻뷶뿉틔냯훺컒쏇룼뫃뗘샭뷢뷰죚쫐뎡뗄샭싛폫쪵볹,뛸쟒튲폐샻폚닆헾헾닟뫍짧믡놣헏훆뛈뗄짨볆폫췪짆(컢컀탇ꆢ웫쳬쿨,2007)ꆣ컄쿗뛔듋룸돶쇋뛠훖뷢쫍,냼삨뻓쏱뗄짧믡죋뿚톧쳘헷,죧쓪쇤ꆢ탔뇰ꆢ뷌폽돌뛈ꆢ믩틶ힴ뿶ꆢ붡뾵ힴ뿶뗈(HaliassosandBertaut,1995;PoterbaandSamwick,1997;RosenandWu,2004;Vissing2Jorgensen,2002);뻓쏱벰웤볒춥뗄쫕죫폫닆뢻쮮욽뫍쇷뚯탔풼쫸뗈(Vissing2Jorgensen,2002;Constantinidesetal1,2002);뻓쏱뗄훷맛탄샭쳘뗣,죧럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈ꆢ늻좷뚨탔맦뇜돌뛈ꆢ샖맛돌뛈뗈(GuisoandPaiella,2007;Guisoetal1,2007;PuriandRobinson,2005);틔벰짧믡뷡릹쳘뗣,죧뻓쏱뗄짧믡탅죎쮮욽ꆢ짧믡뮥뚯쮮욽뗈(Guisoetal1,2007;Hongetal12004)ꆣ놾컄훷튪맘힢뻓쏱뗄럧쿕첬뛈뛔웤막쫐닎폫뗄펰쿬ꆣ3ꆡ샮쳎,훐퇫닆뺭듳톧뺭볃톧풺,폊헾뇠싫:100081,뗧ퟓ탅쿤:econlitao@;맹뷜,훐맺죋쏱듳톧뺭볃톧풺,폊헾뇠싫:100872,뗧ퟓ탅쿤:gjeconomics@ꆣ놾컄쫇놱뺩냂뛻뛠춶톯훐탄()ꆶ춶헟탐캪폫훈탲ꆷ퇐뺿쿮쒿뗄뷗뛎탔퇐뺿돉맻,룐킻퇮틋틴퇐뺿풱룸컒쏇뗄퇐뺿웴랢뫍냯훺ꆣퟷ헟룐킻맺볒ퟔ좻뿆톧믹뷰쿮쒿ꆰ믹폚짧믡뮥뚯뗄춶헟닎폫샭싛ꆱ(70703037)뗄훺ꆣ룐킻쓤쏻짳룥죋뗄놦맳붨틩,떱좻컄퓰ퟔ뢺ꆣꋙꆡ틔짏쫽뻝럖뇰살ퟔꆶ훐맺춳볆쓪본ꆷ폫맺볒춳볆뻖랢늼뗄ꆶ2007쓪맺쏱뺭볃뫍짧믡랢햹춳볆릫놨ꆷꆣꋚꆡ놾컄쳖싛뗄뻓쏱닎폫막쫐쫇횸뻓쏱횱뷓뷸탐막욱춶,뛸쎻폐뾼싇춨맽춶믹뷰뗈뷸탐뗄막욱볤뷓춶ꆣ56
2009쓪뗚2웚막욱쫇튻훖뗤탍뗄럧쿕뷰죚닺ꆣ룹뻝뇪ힼ뗄닺ퟩ뫏샭싛,뻓쏱뗄럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈펰쿬웤막욱춶뻶닟ꆣ룸뚨막욱뗄믘놨폫럧쿕돌뛈,뻓쏱뗄럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈풽룟,쯻닎폫막쫐뗄뿉쓜탔풽뗍,뛸쟒벴쪹쯻뷸탐쇋막욱춶,막욱춶퓚쯻헻룶닺ퟩ뫏훐뗄뇈샽튲풽뗍ꆣ뷸튻늽뗘,죧맻솽믹뷰럖샫뚨샭돉솢뗄뮰,평폚쯹폐춶헟뚼쏦뛔ퟅ쿠춬뗄닺믘놨럖늼,춶헟횮볤퓚닺ퟩ뫏릹돉짏뗄닮틬펦룃뷶뷶랴펳쇋쯻쏇퓚럧쿕첬뛈짏뗄닮틬(Gollier,2001)ꆣ뺡맜솽믹뷰럖샫뚨샭퓚쿖쪵훐돉솢뗄쳵볾럇뎣뿁뿌,뻓쏱뗄럧쿕첬뛈닮틬뮹쫇뿉틔늿럖뻶뚨쯻쏇닺릹돉ힴ뿶뗄닮틬ꆣ막욱쫇뻓쏱닺ퟩ뫏뗄튻훖훘튪탎쪽,틲듋뻓쏱뗄럧쿕첬뛈닮틬튲펰쿬ퟅ쯻쏇뗄닎폫막쫐뻶닟ꆣ럖뇰믹폚쏀맺ꆢ틢듳샻ꆢ뫉삼뗄뻓쏱춶쫽뻝ꆲHongetal1(2004)ꆢGuisoandPaiella(2007)ꆢGuisoetal.(2007)ꆳ랢쿖,뻓쏱뷏룟뗄럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈떼훂쇋웤뷏뗍뗄닎폫막쫐뿉쓜ꆣ춬퇹뗄뷡싛쫇럱튲뛔훐맺뻓쏱쫊폃?쿖폐퇐뺿좴듦퓚ퟅ늻춬랢쿖ꆣ룹뻝GuisoandPaiella(2007)뫍Guisoetal.(2007)맘폚뻓쏱럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈뗄뚨틥,샮쳎(2007)퓚럖컶닎폫맟탔뛔뻓쏱춶톡퓱뗄펰쿬쪱,쫗듎릹퓬쇋튻룶폫컄쿗튻훂뗄훐맺뻓쏱럧쿕첬뛈횸뇪,떫쯻랢쿖훐맺뻓쏱뗄럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈뛔웤쫇럱닎폫막쫐쎻폐쿔훸펰쿬ꆣ틲듋,튻룶횵뗃짮죫퇐뺿뗄컊쳢쫇:훐맺뻓쏱럧쿕첬뛈늢늻쿔훸펰쿬웤닎폫막쫐뿉쓜뗄랢쿖쫇럱컈붡?죧맻헢튻랢쿖컈붡뗄뮰,죧뫎뷢쫍헢튻폫쿖폐컷랽컄쿗늻춬뗄훐맺쪽랢쿖?놾컄헽쫇튪믘듰틔짏솽룶컊쳢ꆣ샻폃2007쓪훐맺15돇쫐뻓쏱춶탐캪뗷닩쫽뻝,컒쏇쫗쿈쪵횤럖컶쇋뻓쏱럧쿕첬뛈뛔웤쫇럱춶막욱뗄펰쿬,퓚듋믹뒡짏춨맽틽죫짧믡뮥뚯살뷢쫍뿉쓜돶쿖뗄훐맺뻓쏱럧쿕첬뛈뛔웤쫇럱닎폫막쫐쎻폐쿔훸펰쿬뗄랢쿖ꆣ짧믡탄샭톧퇐뺿뇭쏷,룶쳥뫍닎헕좺쳥돉풱횮볤뗄짧믡뮥뚯뿉틔붵뗍쯻뛔ퟔ벺쏦뛔뗄늻좷뚨탔뗄훷맛룐횪돌뛈,폐맘샭싛냼삨Hogg(2000)쳡돶뗄늻좷뚨탔ꆪ짭럝샭싛틔벰BergerandCalabrese(1975)쳡돶뗄죋볊붻쇷샭싛ꆣ늻좷뚨탔ꆪ짭럝샭싛죏캪,죋쏇뛔ퟔ벺쯹쏦쇙뗄늻좷뚨탔뗄룐뻵쪹웤뛔ퟔ짭뗄짭럝폐늻좷뚨룐,뛸뛔ퟔ짭짭럝뗄죏뚨탨튪틔쯻죋캪닎헕ꆣ춨맽짧믡뮥뚯살쇋뷢쯻죋,냼삨쯻죋뗄쯹쿫뫍쯹ퟶ,폐훺폚붵뗍훷쳥ퟔ짭뛔늻좷뚨탔뗄훷맛룐횪돌뛈ꆣ짧믡뮥뚯뻍쫇캪쇋룶죋퓚쏦뛔늻좷뚨탔쪱뇈뷏죝틗뗘헒떽닎헕좺쳥ꆣ죋볊붻쇷샭싛횸돶,죋쏇춨맽짧믡뮥뚯뷸탐탅쾢붻쇷뗄튻룶뫋탄뚯믺뻍쫇캪쇋붵뗍늻좷뚨탔(HeathandBryant,2000)ꆣ퓚쏦뛔뷏잿뗄늻좷뚨탔쪱,죋쏇횮볤믡뷸탐룼뛠뗄뿚춷붻쇷,헢붵뗍쇋쯻쏇뛔풭살뷏룟뗄늻좷뚨탔뗄훷맛룐횪돌뛈ꆣ헫뛔막욱춶헢튻돤싺늻좷뚨탔믲럧쿕뗄톡퓱ꋙ,평폚짧믡뮥뚯뿉틔붵뗍뻓쏱뛔럧쿕뗄훷맛룐횪돌뛈ꋚ,벴짧믡뮥뚯뿉틔붵뗍뻓쏱훷맛룐쫜떽뗄막욱춶럧쿕쮮욽,틲듋뻓쏱뗄럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈뛔웤닎폫막쫐뿉쓜뗄뢺쏦펰쿬믡틲뻓쏱뗄짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈늻춬뛸틬ꆣ컒쏇폐죧쿂솽룶췆뛏:쫗쿈,평폚늻춬뻓쏱뗄짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈늻춬뷸뛸웤뛔막쫐춶럧쿕뗄훷맛룐횪돌뛈늻춬,ퟜ쳥살뾴,뻓쏱뗄럧쿕첬뛈뛔웤닎폫막쫐뿉쓜뗄펰쿬쫇뢴퓓뗄:뻓쏱뗄럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈뿉쓜쿔훸붵뗍웤닎폫막쫐룅싊,믲헟쎻폐쿔훸펰쿬ꋛ;웤듎,폫짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈뷏룟뗄뻓쏱쿠뇈,짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈뷏뗍뗄뻓쏱평폚뛔막쫐춶럧쿕뗄훷맛룐횪돌뛈뷏룟,틲듋쯻뗄럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈뛔웤쫇럱춶막욱뗄펰쿬믡룼듳ꆣ놾컄뗄훷튪릱쿗퓚폚,춨맽릹퓬튻룶폫컄쿗쿠춬뇪ힼ뗄훐맺뻓쏱럧쿕첬뛈횸뇪늢샻폃ퟮ탂뿉뗃뗄돇쫐뻓쏱춶탐캪뗷닩쫽뻝,뾼달쇋훐맺뻓쏱뗄럧쿕첬뛈뛔웤쫇럱춶막욱뗄뿉쓜펰쿬ꆣ퓚듋믹뒡짏,뛔폚쪵횤뗃돶뗄뢴퓓뷡싛,뷨본짧믡탄샭톧맘폚짧믡뮥뚯붵뗍룶쳥뛔늻좷뚨탔뗄훷맛룐ꋙ헢샯쎻폐쏷좷쟸럖늻좷뚨탔폫럧쿕뗄쟸뇰,뛸쫇냑뛾헟ퟷ캪춬틥붻쳦쪹폃ꆣꋚ뻓쏱뛔늻좷뚨탔믲럧쿕뗄훷맛룐횪돌뛈쫇횸쯻뛔ퟔ벺쏦쇙뗄늻좷뚨탔믲럧쿕돌뛈룟뗍뗄훷맛에뛏ꆣ헢폫럧쿕맦뇜첬뛈늻춬,뫳헟쫇뻓쏱뛔폚룸뚨돌뛈뗄럧쿕쯹뇭쿖돶뗄퇡뛱돌뛈룟뗍ꆣ컄쿗훐튻냣뚼볙뚨룶죋뗄럧쿕첬뛈만뚨늻뇤ꆣꋛ뻓쏱럧쿕첬뛈뛔웤막욱춶룅싊뗄펰쿬쫇뻓쏱뇈뷏좨뫢헻룶닺ퟩ뫏뗄뷡맻ꆣ틲듋폫ퟮ믹놾뗄컞럧쿕춶벴뒢탮믲릺싲맺햮쿠뇈,춨맽늻춬돌뛈뗘붵뗍뻓쏱뛔럧쿕뗄훷맛룐횪돌뛈,짧믡뮥뚯믡쪹뗃뻓쏱뗄럧쿕첬뛈퓚뷢쫍웤막욱춶뿉쓜쪱돶쿖뢴퓓뷡맻ꆣ57
샮ꆡ쳎ꆢ맹ꆡ뷜:럧쿕첬뛈폫막욱춶횪돌뛈뗄샭싛랢쿖살룸돶쇋뇈뷏뫏샭뗄뷢쫍ꆣ헢쪹뗃컒쏇늻뷶쫗듎붫틔췹퇐뺿뻓쏱막욱춶뻶닟뗄펰쿬틲쯘쪱뇋듋룮쇑뗄솽샠컄쿗솪쾵웰살,벴럧쿕첬뛈뛔뻓쏱닎폫막쫐뗄펰쿬(GuisoandPaiella,2007)폫짧믡뮥뚯뛔뻓쏱닎폫막쫐뗄펰쿬(),뛸쟒튲췘뿭쇋컄쿗훐맘폚럧쿕첬뛈뫍짧믡뮥뚯뛔뻓쏱닎폫막쫐뿉쓜뗄ퟷ폃믺훆,쏖늹쇋컄쿗뗄늻ퟣꆣꋙ놾컄뷡릹뗚뛾늿럖뷩짜쫽뻝퇹놾뫍럖컶뇤솿,뗚죽늿럖쳖싛쪵횤뷡맻,ퟮ뫳ퟜ뷡쪵횤랢쿖뫍헾닟몭틥ꆣ뛾ꆢ쫽뻝퇹놾뫍럖컶뇤솿놾컄쪹폃뗄쫽뻝살ퟔ놱뺩냂뛻뛠춶톯훐탄2007쓪7ꆪ8퓂쯹뷸탐뗄ꆰ돇쫐춶헟탐캪뗷닩ꆱ쿮쒿ꆣꋚ룃뗷닩럃컊쇋놱뺩ꆢ짏몣ꆢ뎤즳ꆢ횣훝ꆢ삼훝ꆢ듳솬ꆢ훘쟬ꆢ컷낲ꆢ뫏럊ꆢ볃쓏ꆢ퇌첨ꆢ짲퇴ꆢ짮?ꆢ몼훝ꆢ볎짆뗈15룶돇쫐뗄1355쏻뻓쏱,쿪쾸뗷닩쇋쯻쏇뗄춶탐캪뫍탄첬틔벰룷훖펰쿬틲쯘ꆣ캪쇋놣횤럖컶퇹놾뗄훊솿,쳞돽쇋8쏻쓪쇤늻싺18훜쯪뗄쫜럃헟,좻뫳폖쳞돽쇋185쏻뗷닩죋풱죏캪믘듰늻뿉뾿믲뫜늻뿉뾿뗄쫜럃헟,ퟮ훕뗄폐킧퇹놾냼삨1152쏻돇쫐뻓쏱ꆣ놾컄쒿뗄퓚폚뾼달뻓쏱뗄럧쿕첬뛈뛔웤쫇럱닎폫막쫐뗄펰쿬,틲듋릹퓬뿆톧뫏샭뗄뻓쏱럧쿕첬뛈횸뇪쫇튻룶훘뗣ꆣ틔쿂럖뇰뻍뻓쏱럧쿕첬뛈횸뇪뫍웤쯼럖컶뇤솿뗄릹퓬뷸탐쮵쏷ꆣ(튻)럧쿕첬뛈횸뇪뻓쏱럧쿕첬뛈뿉틔폃쯻뗄럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈살뷸탐닢뛈ꆣ룹뻝Guisoetal.(2007)맘폚럧쿕맦뇜첬뛈뗄뚨틥,냂뛻뛠뗷닩컊뻭짨볆쇋죧쿂컊쳢살톯컊쫜럃헟퓚튻룶탩릹뗄폎쾷훐믣놨뗄ퟮ룟볛룱:볙죧죃쓺뮨잮췦튻룶폎쾷,죃쓺퓚튻룶ힰ폐100룶쟲(웤훐50룶뫬쟲ꆢ50룶뫚쟲)뗄맞ퟓ훐쯦틢좡돶튻룶쟲,죧맻쯼쫇뫬쟲,쓺뿉틔믱뗃2500풪;죧맻쯼쫇뫚쟲,쓺붫튻컞쯹뗃ꆣ쓺ퟮ뛠풸틢뮨뛠짙잮췦헢룶폎쾷?쿔좻,럧쿕맦뇜틢캶ퟅ쫜럃헟뛔듋폎쾷풸틢횧뢶뗄ퟮ룟볛룱펦룃뗍폚헢룶폎쾷뗄웚췻쫕틦(1250풪)ꆣ헢튻폎쾷뗄웚췻쫕틦햼떽2007쓪돇헲뻓쏱볒춥욽뻹쎿죋좫쓪쿻럑탔횧돶(9997풪)뗄1215%,틲듋,헢룶폎쾷뛔펦ퟅ튻룶쿠뛔뷏룟뗄럧쿕쮮욽,듓뛸폐훺폚볆쯣돶쫜럃헟헦쪵뗄럧쿕첬뛈ꆣ헢쫇틲캪,틔웚췻킧폃ퟮ듳뮯캪쒿뇪뗄뻓쏱뛔뷏킡럧쿕믡뇭쿖돶훐탔첬뛈,뺡맜쯻뛔폚뷏듳럧쿕믡뇭쿖돶맦뇜첬뛈(Arrow,1970)ꆣ퓚룹뻝냂뛻뛠뗷닩컊쳢볆쯣쫜럃헟럧쿕첬뛈쪱,볙짨쫜럃헟쫇샭탔뗄킧폃ퟮ듳뮯헟,쯹틔떱쳢쒿짨볆튻룶쿠뛔뷏듳뗄웚췻쫕틦쪱쟳뗃뗄럧쿕첬뛈룼캪ힼ좷ꆣ폫GuisoandPaiella(2007)쿠춬,컒쏇퓚웚췻킧폃뿲볜쿂춨맽캪쎿튻캻쫜럃헟볆쯣돶쯻쿠펦뗄Arrow2Pratt뻸뛔럧쿕맦뇜횸쫽살뺫좷닢솿웤럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈ꆣ볙짨뻓쏱i뗄?뢳쮮욽(닆뢻쮮욽)쫇Wi,u(iꆤ)쫇뻓쏱뗄킧폃몯쫽,Pi쫇뻓쏱i춨맽닎폫헢튻폎쾷뗃떽뗄쯦믺쫕틦,틲듋Pi뗄좡횵럖뇰쫇(25002Z)i뫍2Zi,웤훐Zi쫇쫜럃헟뛔헢룶폎쾷뗄ퟮ룟횧뢶볛룱,틔짏솽룶좡횵뗄룅싊룷쫇50%ꆣ틲듋,컒쏇뿉틔뗃떽틔쿂킧폃뗈쪽:u(iW)i=015u(iWi+25002Z))(i+015u()iWi2Zi=E(u(iWi+P)i1)ꆡꆡ웤훐,E(ꆤ)뇭쪾웚췻ꆣ뛔폚(1)쪽폒뇟쿮퓚Wi뒦뷸탐뛾뷗첩샕햹뾪,컒쏇뗃떽:Eu(iWi+P)iꇖu(iW)i+uꇤ(iW)iE(P)i+015uꇥ(iW)(iEP2)(i2)ꋙHongetal.(2004)횸돶,짧믡뮥뚯룼볓욵랱뗄뻓쏱뿉쓜뇈뷏듳떨튻킩,틲듋퓚뷸탐막욱춶뻶닟쪱럧쿕맦뇜쟣쿲믡룼죵튻킩ꆣ쯻쏇헢샯잿뗷뗄쫇뻓쏱뗄짧믡뮥뚯놳뫳쯹횱뷓랴펳뗄뻓쏱럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈ꆣ뛸놾컄쯹잿뗷뗄쫇늻춬뗄ퟷ폃쟾뗀,벴짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈랴쿲펰쿬쇋뻓쏱퓚춶막욱쪱뛔럧쿕뗄훷맛룐횪돌뛈ꆣꋚ틔쿂볲돆냂뛻뛠뗷닩ꆣ놱뺩냂뛻뛠춶톯훐탄듓2005쓪뾪쪼,틑뺭솬탸죽쓪뷸탐쇋죽웚뿧뗘쟸뗄춶헟탐캪뗷닩ꆣ샻폃헢튻쾵쇐뗷닩쫽뻝췪돉뗄퇐뺿냼삨샮쳎(2007)뫍컢컀탇ꆢ웫쳬쿨(2007)뗈ꆣ58
2009쓪뗚2웚ꆡꆡ냑(2)쪽듺죫(1)쪽늢뷸탐뮯볲뫳,컒쏇뿉틔뗃떽뻓쏱i뗄뻸뛔럧쿕맦뇜횸쫽R(iW)i:R(iW)i=-uꇥ(iW)(iΠuꇤiW)i=2E(P)iΠE(P2)i=(250022Z)iΠ(312500022500Zi+2Z)i(3)ꆡꆡ헽죧GuisoandPaiella(2007)쯹횸돶,틔짏Ri(Wi)뗄릹퓬랽램폐죽룶폅뗣:웤튻,컒쏇뛔뻓쏱뗄킧폃몯쫽쎻폐쪩볓죎뫎훷맛볙짨;웤뛾,횸쫽뗄좡횵냼삨쇋뻓쏱럧쿕첬뛈뗄룷훖쟩탎,벴럧쿕낮뫃ꆢ훐탔믲퇡뛱;웤죽,뛔뻓쏱럧쿕첬뛈컒쏇뿉틔뗃돶뺫좷쫽횵뛸럇쟸볤횵ꆣ떫쫇,쿱Guisoetal1(2007)쯹돐죏뗄,춨맽틔짏Arrow2Pratt뻸뛔럧쿕맦뇜횸쫽살췆떼뻓쏱헦쪵뗄럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈뿉쓜듦퓚솽룶컊쳢ꆣ쫗쿈,쫜럃헟믣놨뗄ퟮ룟횧뢶볛룱웕뇩뷏뗍,욽뻹횵뷶폐469풪ꆣ헢퓚쪵퇩뺭볃톧훐쫇튻룶럇뎣훸쏻뗄쿖쿳:퓚캪탩릹뛸럇쿖쪵뗄폎쾷뚨볛쪱,쪵퇩뛔쿳ퟜ쫇믡룸돶럇뎣뗍뗄횧뢶볛룱(KagelandRoth,1995)ꆣ룸뚨헢훖쫜럃헟믣놨뗄ퟮ룟횧뢶볛룱뗄쿲쿂욫닮,컒쏇볆쯣뗄럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈뿉쓜룟맀쇋쫜럃헟헦쪵뗄럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈ꆣ틑폐컄쿗늢캴럖컶럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈욫닮뗄뻸뛔럹뛈쫇럱폫맛달떽뗄쫜럃헟쳘헷쿠맘ꆣ죧맻헢훖욫닮뛔쯹폐쫜럃헟쫇쿠춬뗄,쓇쎴룹뻝쫜럃헟믣놨뗄ퟮ룟횧뢶볛룱볆쯣뗄럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈뻍횻믡쫇쫜럃헟헦쪵럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈뗄튻룶춬뇈럅듳ꆣ웤듎,폫GuisoandPaiella(2007)늻춬,냂뛻뛠뗷닩닉폃뗄Guisoetal1(2007)뗄럧쿕첬뛈뗷닩컊쳢뗄솽룶뿉쓜뫳맻훐쎻폐짦벰쯰쪧뗄쟩뿶ꆣ헫뛔막욱춶헢훖뫳맻폐폐엢뗄럧쿕톡퓱,쫜럃헟듋쪱믣놨뗄ퟮ룟횧뢶볛룱폖뿉쓜쫇쿲짏욫닮뗄,틲듋컒쏇볆쯣뗄럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈뿉쓜뗍맀쇋쫜럃헟헦쪵뗄럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈ꆣ듋뒦뛔헦쪵럧쿕첬뛈뗄뗍맀뫍짏컄뛔헦쪵럧쿕첬뛈뗄룟맀뿉쓜뮥쿠뗖쿻,쪹뗃컒쏇볆쯣뗄뻓쏱럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈뷓뷼헦쪵쮮욽ꆣꋙ(뛾)웤쯼럖컶뇤솿놾컄뗄럖컶뇤솿냼삨뻓쏱뗄닎폫막쫐돌뛈뫍짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈ꆣ폫HalliassosandBertaut(1995)튻훂,뻓쏱뗄막쫐닎폫돌뛈닉폃탩쓢뇤솿뗄탎쪽,볇ퟷstock-d,뇭쪾뻓쏱쒿잰쫇럱헽퓚뷸탐막욱춶,쫇퓲뢳횵캪1,랴횮캪0ꆣ뻓쏱뗄짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈폃쯻뛔쇚뻓뗄죏쪶돌뛈살닢솿,헢폫Hongetal1(2004)쿠춬,볇ퟷknowing-neighbor-d,떱뻓쏱죏쪶쯹폐믲뻸듳늿럖쇚뻓쪱뢳횵캪1,떱뻓쏱죏쪶짙늿럖믲늻죏쪶쇚뻓쪱뢳횵캪0ꆣ폫컄쿗튻훂,웤쯼펰쿬뻓쏱닎폫막쫐뗄뿘훆뇤솿냼삨뻓쏱뗄짧믡죋뿚톧쳘헷ꆢ뻓쏱벰웤볒춥뗄쫕죫폫닆뢻쮮욽틔벰쇷뚯탔풼쫸ꆢ뻓쏱뗄훷맛탄샭쳘뗣ꆢ짧믡뷡릹쳘뗣ꆣ뻓쏱뗄짧믡죋뿚톧쳘헷뇤솿냼삨:폃age뇭쪾뗄뻓쏱쓪쇤,뾼싇떽뻓쏱쓪쇤뛔웤막쫐닎폫뿉쓜뗄럇쿟탔펰쿬,컒쏇틽죫쇋뻓쏱쓪쇤욽랽,볇ퟷage-sq;폃male뇭쪾뻓쏱탔뇰,쓐탔뢳횵캪1,얮탔뢳횵캪0;폃schooling-year뇭쪾뗄뻓쏱쫜뷌폽쓪쿞;폃married뇭쪾뗄뻓쏱믩틶ힴ뿶,틑믩뢳횵캪1,캴믩ꆢ샫틬믲즥얼뢳횵캪0;폃health뇭쪾뗄뻓쏱붡뾵ힴ뿶,뢳횵캪1떽5뗄헻쫽,럖뇰뛔펦뻓쏱죏캪ퟔ벺붡뾵ힴ뿶럇뎣닮ꆢ뷏닮ꆢ튻냣ꆢ뷏뫃믲럇뎣뫃ꆣ뻓쏱벰웤볒춥뗄쫕죫폫닆뢻쮮욽틔벰쇷뚯탔풼쫸뇤솿냼삨:폃month-own-income뇭쪾뗄뻓쏱맽좥튻쓪쓚욽뻹퓂쫕죫(떥캻캪췲풪);뾼싇떽뻓쏱쫕죫뛔웤닎폫막쫐뿉쓜뗄럇쿟탔펰쿬,컒쏇틽죫쇋뻓쏱퓂쫕죫욽랽,볇ퟷmonth-own-income-sq;폃assets뇭쪾뗄뻓쏱볒춥ퟜ닺(췲풪),폃debts뇭쪾뗄뻓쏱볒춥ퟜ햮컱(췲풪);폃financial-constraint뇭쪾뗄뻓쏱쏦쇙뗄죚풼쫸,뢳횵럖뇰캪1떽5뗄헻쫽,럖뇰뛔펦뻓쏱죏캪쿲뇰죋믲뷰죚믺릹뷨잮럇뎣죝틗ꆢ뇈뷏죝틗ꆢ튻냣ꆢ뇈뷏삧쓑믲럇뎣삧쓑ꆣꋙ뺡맜틔짏쳖싛늻믡췪좫업돽컒쏇릹퓬뗄뻸뛔럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈횸뇪뗍맀믲룟맀뻓쏱헦쪵뗄뻸뛔럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈횸뇪뗄뿉쓜,떫헢훖릹퓬랽램쫇틑횪컄쿗훐ퟮ탂쟒좱뗣ퟮ짙뗄(GuisoandPaiella,2007)ꆣ59
샮ꆡ쳎ꆢ맹ꆡ뷜:럧쿕첬뛈폫막욱춶뻓쏱뗄훷맛탄샭쳘뗣냼삨:폃invest-optimism뇭쪾뗄뻓쏱춶쪱뗄샖맛돌뛈,뢳횵캪뻓쏱뛔틔쿂컥ퟩ쮵램춬틢돌뛈뢳횵뗄욽뻹횵,벴ꆰ쿠탅ퟔ벺뗄춶쓜듸살룟믘놨ꆱꆢꆰ룐떽캴살돤싺폕죋뗄춶믺믡ꆱꆰꆢ캴횪뗄캴살폐맣삫뗄춶뿕볤ꆱꆰꆢ뛔ퟔ벺뗄춶톡퓱돤싺샖맛뗄웚듽ꆱꆢꆰ퓸뺭믱뗃뗄춶쫕틦죃컒쏇룐떽컞뇈쾲퓃ꆱ,뛔폚쎿훖쮵램,뢳횵럖뇰캪1떽5뗄헻쫽,뛔펦뻓쏱죏캪룃쮵램뫜늻럻뫏ꆢ늻첫럻뫏ꆢ튻냣럻뫏ꆢ폐뗣럻뫏믲럇뎣럻뫏ퟔ벺ퟮ헦쪵뗄쿫램뫍룐쫜;폃invest-pessimism뇭쪾뗄뻓쏱춶쪱뗄놯맛돌뛈,뢳횵캪뻓쏱뛔틔쿂컥ퟩ쮵램춬틢돌뛈뢳횵뗄욽뻹횵,벴ꆰ춶뗄늻좷뚨탔죃컒쏇룐떽붹싇늻낲ꆱꆰꆢ쫐뎡뗄뇤뮯쒪닢죃컒쏇룐뻵쓑틔펦뢶ꆱꆰꆢ짧믡뺭볃뗄랢햹뇤뮯죃컒쏇룐떽튻훖췾킲ꆱꆰꆢ컞램돐쫜춶쪧냜뗄듲믷ꆱꆰꆢ떣탄ퟔ벺뗄춶믡쫇튻훖틢쿫늻떽뗄뷡뻖ꆱ,뛔폚쎿훖쮵램,뢳횵캪1떽5뗄헻쫽,럖뇰뛔펦뻓쏱죏캪룃쮵램뫜늻럻뫏ꆢ늻첫럻뫏ꆢ튻냣럻뫏ꆢ폐뗣럻뫏믲럇뎣럻뫏ퟔ벺ퟮ헦쪵뗄쿫램뫍룐쫜ꆣ뻓쏱뗄짧믡뷡릹쳘뗣뇤솿냼삨:폃trust-people뇭쪾뗄뻓쏱짧믡탅죎쮮욽,벴뻓쏱뛔짧믡짏뻸듳늿럖죋뗄탅죎돌뛈,뢳횵캪1떽5뗄헻쫽,럖뇰뛔펦뻓쏱럇뎣늻탅죎ꆢ늻탅죎ꆢ튻냣탅죎ꆢ탅죎믲럇뎣탅죎짧믡짏뗄뻸듳늿럖죋;폃mean-othertrust뇭쪾뗄뻓쏱쳘쫢탅죎쮮욽,뢳횵캪뻓쏱뛔틔쿂쇹ퟩ쳘뚨믺릹탅죎돌뛈뢳횵뗄욽뻹횵,벴뻓쏱뛔짏쫐릫쮾ꆢ헾뢮볠맜늿쏅ꆢ쮾램믺릹ꆢ닆뺭쎽쳥ꆢ뷰죚믺릹믲웤쯼훐뷩ퟩ횯(죧싉쪦쫂컱쯹ꆢ믡볆쪦쫂컱쯹뗈)뗄탅죎돌뛈,뻓쏱뛔쎿훖믺릹탅죎돌뛈뗄뢳횵랽쪽폫뻓쏱짧믡탅죎쮮욽뗄쿠춬ꆣ듋췢,뮹틽죫쇋뻓쏱쯹퓚돇쫐ꆢ쯹듓쫂횰튵ꆢퟚ뷌탅퇶ꆢ볒춥죋뿚쫽ꆢ볒춥훐캴싺18훜쯪뗄죋뿚쫽ꆢ볒춥훐60훜쯪벰틔짏뗄죋뿚쫽ꆢ맽좥쫇럱뷸탐맽막욱춶ꆢ춶웚쿞욫뫃ꆢ쎿훜릤ퟷ쪱볤뗈뿉쓜펰쿬뻓쏱쫇럱춶막욱뗄뛠훖뇤솿ꆣ죽ꆢ쪵횤럖컶ꋙ(튻)춳볆럖컶뷡맻뇭1룸돶쇋놾컄훷튪뇤솿뗄춳볆럖컶뷡맻ꆣ욽뻹뛸퇔,뻓쏱쫇럧쿕맦뇜뗄ꆣ듋췢,32%뗄뻓쏱쿖퓚폐막욱춶ꋚ,뻓쏱뗄짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈뷏룟,60%뗄뻓쏱죏쪶듳늿럖믲쯹폐쇚뻓ꆣ뻓쏱뗄욽뻹쓪쇤쫇34쯪,쓐탔뇈샽캪60%,욽뻹뷓쫜쇋13쓪뗄뷌폽(벴룟훐뫍듳톧횮볤),58%뗄뻓쏱틑믩,붡뾵ힴ뿶뷏닮;뻓쏱맽좥튻쓪쓚욽뻹퓂쫕죫쫇3200풪;뻓쏱볒춥ퟜ닺욽뻹캪34172췲풪,ퟜ햮컱욽뻹캪4163췲풪;뻓쏱쏦뛔뗄쇷뚯탔풼쫸돌뛈욽뻹뷏룟,룐뻵쿲뇰죋믲뷰죚믺릹뷨잮뗄삧쓑돌뛈퓚튻냣뫍뇈뷏삧쓑횮볤;뻓쏱뗄춶샖맛돌뛈뫍놯맛돌뛈욽뻹뚼싔룟폚튻냣,벴럖뇰뷩폚튻냣뫍폐뗣샖맛ꆢ튻냣뫍폐뗣놯맛횮볤;뻓쏱뗄짧믡탅죎돌뛈뫍쳘쫢탅죎돌뛈튲뚼싔룟폚튻냣,벴뷩폚튻냣탅죎뫍탅죎횮볤ꆣꆡꆡ룹뻝틽퇔훐뗄쳖싛,짧믡뮥뚯믡붵뗍뻓쏱뛔럧쿕뗄훷맛룐횪돌뛈,틲듋쏦뛔쿠춬뗄쿮쒿,폫짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈뷏뗍뗄뻓쏱쿠뇈,짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈뷏룟뗄뻓쏱믡죏캪룃쿮쒿뗄럧쿕룼킡ꆣ냂뛻뛠뗷닩컊뻭짨볆쇋폫듋쿠맘뗄쯄룶컊쳢살퇩횤틔짏췆싛ꆣ뇭2ퟜ뷡쇋쿠펦뗄뗷닩랢쿖ꆣꋙ욪럹쯹쿞,듋뒦쪡싔쇋쿠맘럖컶뷡맻ꆣ쯹폐믘맩뇤솿뗄쿠맘쾵쫽뚼뗍폚릲쿟탔듦퓚뗄쏅볷횵017(Lindetal,2002),룐탋좤뗄뛁헟뿉틔쿲ퟷ헟쯷좡ꆣꋚ헢튻뻓쏱횱뷓춶막쫐뇈샽폫쪹폃2006쓪10ꆪ11퓂냂뛻뛠뗷닩쫽뻝뗄샮쳎(2007)뗃떽뗄32%믹놾쿠춬,떫룟폚놾컄뾪욪쳡떽뗄훐맺뷡쯣쫽뻝춳볆럖컶킡ퟩ(2008)맀쯣뗄2007쓪뗄12%ꆣ틲듋,놾컄퇹놾뿉쓜뛔막쏱뛸퇔룼뻟듺뇭탔ꆣ룼룟뗄뻓쏱닎폫막쫐뇈훘펦룃뛔펦뻓쏱럧쿕첬뛈룼볓쿔훸뗄뷢쫍ퟷ폃,떫쫇헽죧믘맩뷡맻훐붫튪쿔쪾뗄,컒쏇늢캴랢쿖뻓쏱럧쿕첬뛈뛔ퟜ쳥퇹놾훐뗄뻓쏱닎폫막쫐뿉쓜폐쿔훸펰쿬ꆣ헢뿉틔듲쿻틔쿂맋싇:평폚퇹놾훐냼몬쇋룼룟뇈샽뗄막쏱,틲듋퓚ퟜ퇹놾믘맩훐믡뗃떽룼볓쿔훸뗄뻓쏱럧쿕첬뛈뗄믘맩쾵쫽ꆣ60
2009쓪뗚2웚뇭1훷튪뇤솿뗄춳볆쏨쫶욽뻹횵훐캻쫽뇪ힼ닮ퟮ킡횵ퟮ듳횵맛닢횵stock-d01320014654011056ara010007010008010003-0100080100081056knowing-neighbor-d016010149011046age3412432910518801056age-sq1254128102470719532464001056male016010149011064schooling-year131131421720181076married015810149011084health119120175151064month-own-income0132012501600131075month-own-income-sq01460106610901691075assets341721919855195010571056debts416301414502151056liquidity-constraint313830192151061invest-optimism313631250161151072invest-pessimism311431200165151076trust-people311730177151076mean-othertrust311830163151065뇭2늻춬폎쾷짨볆쿂짧믡뮥뚯뛔쫜럃헟럧쿕첬뛈뗄펰쿬퓚틔쿂폎쾷훐,볙짨훜캧뗄죋훐뻸듳뛠쫽뚼폎쾷쏨쫶닎폫쇋헢튻폎쾷ꆡꆡꆡ캴닎폫헢튻폎쾷쓇쎴,쫜럃헟훐풸틢닎폫헢튻폎쾷헟뗄뇈샽a1ꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡꆡa2폎쾷1:50%뗄뿉쓜ퟔ벺놾퓂뗄ퟜ쫕죫퓶볓1Π332101%16198%50%뗄뿉쓜쯰쪧ퟔ벺놾퓂좫늿뗄ퟜ쫕죫(맛닢횵=1084)(맛닢횵=1084)33a1=a2:t=8132518폎쾷2:50%뗄뿉쓜ퟔ벺놾퓂뗄ퟜ쫕죫퓶볓튻놶46159%27140%50%뗄뿉쓜쯰쪧ퟔ벺놾퓂좫늿ퟜ쫕죫뗄1Π2(맛닢횵=1084)(맛닢횵=1084)33a1=a2:t=9134369폎쾷3:50%뗄뿉쓜ퟔ벺놾퓂뗄ퟜ쫕죫퓶볓튻놶57160%34181%50%뗄뿉쓜쯰쪧ퟔ벺놾퓂좫늿ퟜ쫕죫뗄1Π3(맛닢횵=1083)(맛닢횵=1083)a1=a2:t=3310139277폎쾷4:50%뗄뿉쓜ퟔ벺놾퓂뗄ퟜ쫕죫퓶볓튻놶60100%46191%50%뗄뿉쓜쯰쪧ퟔ벺놾퓂좫늿ퟜ쫕죫뗄1Π5(맛닢횵=1083)(맛닢횵=1083)33a1=a2:t=6131616ꆡꆡ헢쯄룶컊쳢뗄짨볆쟸뇰뷶퓚폚닎폫폎쾷뗄쫕틦럖늼늻춬,폎쾷1ꆢ2ꆢ3ꆢ4뗄쫕틦럖늼럖뇰쫇50%뗄뿉쓜쓺놾퓂ퟜ쫕죫믡퓶볓1Π3ꆢ100%ꆢ100%ꆢ100%,50%뗄뿉쓜쓺믡쯰쪧놾퓂ퟜ쫕죫뗄100%ꆢ1Π2ꆢ1Π3ꆢ1Π5ꆣ뻟쳥뗄쳢쒿쫇ꆰ:쿖퓚쓺쏦쇙튻듎폎쾷믺믡,폐50%뗄뿉쓜쓺놾퓂ퟜ쫕죫믡퓶61
샮ꆡ쳎ꆢ맹ꆡ뷜:럧쿕첬뛈폫막욱춶볓ꆡꆭꆡ,떫튲폐50%뗄뿉쓜쓺믡쯰쪧놾ꆡ뇭3럧쿕첬뛈폫춶막쫐뿉쓜뗄probit믘맩뷡맻퓂ퟜ쫕죫뗄ꆭ:(1)볙죧쓺훜캧뗄죋훐놻뷢쫍뇤솿:stock-d뻸듳뛠쫽뚼닎폫쇋쿠춬뗄폎쾷,쓺풸(1)(2)(3)틢닎폫싰?(2)볙죧쓺훜캧뗄죋훐뻸ara10214077105154429212544듳뛠쫽뚼쎻닎폫쿠춬뗄폎쾷,쓺풸틢(0154)(0155)(0148)닎폫싰knowing-neighbo33333r?ꆱ폎쾷1ꆪ4뗄웚췻쫕틦틀듎-d010564010543013330536퓶볓(2122)(2161)(2165),럖뇰캪놾퓂ퟜ쫕죫뗄2Π3ꆢ놾퓂ퟜ쫕죫뗄5Π4ꆢ놾퓂ퟜ쫕죫뗄4Π3ꆢ놾퓂ag333e010703010768010764ퟜ쫕죫뗄(1179)(1192)(1189)7Π5ꆣage-sq-01000633-010006-010006뇭2쿔쪾,쯦ퟅ폎쾷웚췻쫕틦뗄(-1163)(-1178)(-1174)뗝퓶,늻싛훜캧뗄죋쫇럱듳뛠닎폫쇋m33ale0121190133321050132035쿠춬폎쾷,뇭쪾풸틢닎폫룷폎쾷뗄쫜(2111)(2108)(2101)럃헟뇈샽튲뚼돊쏷쿔뗄뗝퓶쟷쫆,헢333333schooling-year010708010725010718쮵쏷쫜럃헟욽뻹뛸퇔쫇ퟱ톭샭탔풭퓲(2149)(2152)(2148)뗄ꆣ룼캪훘튪뗄쫇,뛔폚쯹폐뗄폎쾷married-010282-010215-010342,폫쫜럃헟뗃횪훜캧뗄죋훐뻸듳뛠쫽뚼(-0123)(-0117)(-0128)캴닎폫쿠춬폎쾷쪱쿠뇈,떱쫜럃헟뗃health-01056-010539-010569(-1111)(-1108)(-1112)횪훜캧뗄죋훐뻸듳뛠쫽뚼닎폫쇋쿠춬month-own-income01334416013334426014293폎쾷쪱,뇭쪾믡닎폫룃폎쾷뗄죋쫽뇈(1196)(1198)(1193)샽뚼쿔훸룼룟ꆣ평폚틔짏쯄ퟩ컊쳢췆mon3333th-own-income-sq-010411-010419-01330419떼돶뗄폎쾷닎폫뷡맻뇭쏷쇋뻓쏱뛔늻(-2133)(-2138)(-2140)춬폎쾷럧쿕돌뛈룟뗍뗄훷맛에뛏,뛸333333s0133asset01060101090130109쟒뻓쏱훜캧뗄죋훐듳뛠쫽뗄쿠춬톡퓱(4108)(4112)(4104)뿉틔폃살뫢솿쯻뗄짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈ꆣ틲debts0100201001801002듋뇭(0154)(0147)(0151)2쮵쏷,짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈룼룟뗄뻓333333financial-constraint-011692-013331693-011652쏱뛔춬튻쿮쒿룐쫜떽뗄럧쿕돌뛈쿔훸(-2179)(-2179)(-2165)뗍폚짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈룼뗍뗄뻓쏱,짧믡trust-people-011009-011113뮥뚯붵뗍쇋뻓쏱뗄럧쿕훷맛룐횪돌(-1143)(-1156)뛈ꆣmean-othertrust01131011165(1143)(1125)(뛾)믘맩럖컶뷡맻invest-optimism01119111훐맺뻓쏱뗄럧쿕첬뛈쫇럱쿔훸펰쿬쇋쯻쏇닎폫막쫐뗄뿉쓜(1120)?샻폃틔짏뇪ힼ뗄훐맺뻓쏱럧쿕맦invest-pessimism-010166(-0119)뇜돌뛈횸뇪,컒쏇쫗쿈볬퇩훐맺뻓쏱뎣쫽쿮333-213338777-313331458-313945뗄럧쿕첬뛈쫇럱쿔훸펰쿬쇋쯻쏇닎폫(-3119)(-3121)(-3120)막쫐뗄뿉쓜ꆣ뇭3룸돶쇋죽ퟩ믘맩뷡맛닢횵873862851맻,럖뇰뛔펦돽뻓쏱뗄뻸뛔럧쿕맦뇜PseudoR2012290012304012298돌뛈ꆢ짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈ꆢ쓪쇤벰웤욽랽ꆡꆡꆡ힢333:ꆢ33ꆢ3럖뇰뇭쪾믘맩쾵쫽믲뇟볊룅싊뗄쿔훸탔쮮욽캪1%ꆢ5%ꆢ쿮ꆢ탔뇰ꆢ쫜뷌폽쓪쿞ꆢ믩틶ힴ뿶,붡뾵10%ꆣ삨뫅쓚뗄쫇z춳볆뷡맻ꆣힴ뿶ꆢ맽좥튻쓪쓚욽뻹퓂쫕죫벰웤욽랽쿮ꆢ볒춥ퟜ닺ꆢ볒춥ퟜ햮컱ꆢ죚풼쫸돌뛈뗈믹ힼ뿘훆뇤62
2009쓪뗚2웚솿ꋙ췢뻓쏱뗄짧믡탅죎돌뛈ꆢ쳘쫢탅죎돌뛈ꆢ춶샖맛돌뛈ꆢ춶놯맛돌뛈뗈믘맩랽돌훐늻춬뗄뿘훆뇤솿ퟩ뫏ꆣ본폚놻뷢쫍뇤솿stock-d뗄탩쓢뇤솿탔훊,컒쏇닉폃쇋probit믘맩쒣탍ꆣꋚ폫샮쳎(2007)튻훂,믹ힼ믘맩뷡맻(1)쿔쪾,뻓쏱뗄뻸뛔럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈뛔쯻쫇럱횱뷓뷸탐막욱춶쎻폐쿔훸펰쿬ꆣ헢폫컷랽컄쿗늻춬,죧Hongetal.(2004)ꆢGuisoandPaiella(2007)ꆢGuisoetal.(2007)뗈ꆣ뾼싇떽짧믡뮥뚯펰쿬쇋뻓쏱뛔럧쿕뗄훷맛룐횪돌뛈,ퟜ쳥퇹놾훐헢훖럧쿕첬뛈뗄늻쿔훸ퟷ폃뿉쓜랴펳쇋뻓쏱늻춬뗄짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈펰쿬쇋쯻뛔막욱춶럧쿕뗄늻춬훷맛룐횪돌뛈,벴늻춬뇈샽뗘쯵킡쇋쯻뛔막쫐춶뿍맛듦퓚럧쿕뗄훷맛룐횪돌뛈ꆣ컷랽컄쿗퓚퇐뺿뻓쏱뗄럧쿕첬뛈뛔웤닎폫막쫐뿉쓜뗄펰쿬쪱늢캴뾼싇틔짏쟩뿶ꆣ평폚늻춬뗄짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈쪹뗃뻓쏱죏캪막쫐춶럧쿕믡늻춬돌뛈뗘룼뗍,헢훖ퟜ쳥뷏뗍뗄훷맛럧쿕에뛏쪹뗃뻓쏱럧쿕첬뛈퓚뷢쫍웤막욱춶뿉쓜쪱쪧좥쇋쿔훸탔ꆣꋛ헢튲횧돖쇋컒쏇퓚떼퇔훐뻍짧믡뮥뚯펰쿬뻓쏱럧쿕훷맛룐횪돌뛈뗄뗚튻룶췆싛ꆣ듋췢,쿔훸뗄믘맩랢쿖냼삨:짧믡뮥뚯춨맽췆뚯탅쾢붻뮻ꆢ쳡룟붻쇷폤퓃룐ꆢ삩즢췅쳥쓚늿맦랶뗈쓚짺뮥뚯믺훆믲막쫐잮쪾랶킧펦뗈쟩뺰뮥뚯믺훆쳡룟쇋뻓쏱닎폫막쫐뿉쓜(Hongetal1,2004);뻓쏱룼룟뗄뷌폽돌뛈쪹웤룼틗폚쇋뷢막욱춶횪쪶뫍탅쾢,헢쿔훸췆뚯쇋뻓쏱춶막욱(Vissing2Jorgensen,2002);룼뛠뗄볒춥ퟜ닺쪹뗃뻓쏱죝틗뿧맽막욱춶뗄만뚨돉놾쏅볷,뇭쿖캪룼룟뗄막쫐닎폫룅싊(Vissing2Jorgensen,2002);뷏잿뗄죚풼쫸돌뛈훆풼쇋뻓쏱캪욽뮬웤짺쏼훜웚쫕죫뛸뷸탐막욱춶뗄쓜솦,틲뛸웤막쫐닎폫뿉쓜룼뗍(Constantinidesetal1,2002);뻓쏱뗄퓂쫕죫쮮욽쿔훸쳡룟쇋쯻뗄막쫐닎폫뿉쓜,뺡맜헢훖췆뚯ퟷ폃쯦ퟅ쫕죫뗄짏짽뛸뗝복ꋜ;쓪쇤뗄퓶볓냩쯦ퟅ닆뢻믽샛뷸뛸퓶볓쇋뻓쏱춶막쫐뗄뿉쓜(컢컀탇ꆢ웫쳬쿨,2007);쓐탔닎폫막쫐뿉쓜룼룟(Guisoetal.,2007)ꆣ웤쯼늻쿔훸뗄믘맩뇤솿냼삨쓪쇤뗄욽랽쿮ꆢ믩틶ힴ뿶ꆢ붡뾵ힴ뿶ꆢ볒춥햮컱ꆣ폫믘맩뷡맻(1)튻훂,뷸튻늽뿘훆쇋뻓쏱짧믡탅죎돌뛈뫍쳘쫢탅죎돌뛈뗄믘맩뷡맻(2)쿔쪾,뻓쏱뗄뻸뛔럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈늻믡쿔훸뗘펰쿬쯻쫇럱춶막욱ꆣ듋췢,폫(1)늻춬,뻓쏱뗄쓪쇤뛔웤닎폫막쫐뿉쓜돊쿖돶떹U탍뗄펰쿬,벴뻓쏱춶막욱뗄뿉쓜쯦ퟅ쓪쇤뗄퓶볓쿈짏짽,횱떽64쯪ퟳ폒뫳뾪쪼쿂붵ꆣ헢뫍컢컀탇ꆢ웫쳬쿨(2007)뗄폐맘랢쿖샠쯆ꆣ듋췢,뻓쏱뗄짧믡탅죎돌뛈뫍쳘쫢탅죎돌뛈뛔웤닎폫막쫐뿉쓜쎻폐쿔훸펰쿬ꆣ퓚믘맩뷡맻(2)뗄믹뒡짏뾼싇쇋뻓쏱퓚춶쪱뗄샖맛돌뛈뫍놯맛돌뛈뗄믘맩뷡맻(3)뗃돶쇋폫(2)튻훂뗄믘맩뷡맻ꆣ컒쏇퓙듎랢쿖,틔뻸뛔럧쿕맦뇜첬뛈뫢솿뗄뻓쏱럧쿕첬뛈뛔웤닎폫막쫐뿉쓜쎻폐쿔훸펰쿬ꆣ듋췢,탂틽죫뗄샖맛돌뛈뫍놯맛돌뛈튲늻쿔훸펰쿬뻓쏱닎폫막쫐뿉쓜ꆣퟜ뷡뇭3뗄맘볼믘맩랢쿖,뻓쏱쫇럱닎폫막쫐늢늻쫜떽쯻뗄럧쿕첬뛈뗄쿔훸펰쿬,헢폫컷랽컄쿗뗄랢쿖늻춬ꆣ컒쏇쳡돶탂뗄샭싛뷢쫍:뻓쏱늻춬뗄짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈떼훂쯻뛔막욱춶럧쿕뗄훷맛룐횪돌뛈폐ퟅ늻춬뇈샽뗄붵뗍,헢훖붵뗍쇋뗄막욱춶럧쿕룐횪돌뛈쪹뗃뻓쏱럧쿕첬뛈늻쓜쿔훸펰쿬쯻닎폫막쫐뗄뿉쓜ꆣ캪쇋퇩횤틔짏샭싛뷢쫍쫇럱돉솢,쿂튻뷚ퟶ뷸튻늽뗄쪵횤볬퇩ꆣꋙ믹ힼ쒣탍뗄뿘훆뇤솿뮹냼삨뻓쏱쯹퓚돇쫐ꆢ쯹듓쫂횰튵ꆢퟚ뷌탅퇶ꆢ볒춥죋뿚쫽ꆢ볒춥훐캴싺18훜쯪뗄죋뿚쫽ꆢ볒춥훐60훜쯪벰틔짏뗄죋뿚쫽ꆢ맽좥쫇럱뷸탐맽막욱춶ꆢ춶웚쿞욫뫃ꆢ쎿훜릤ퟷ쪱볤뗈ꆣ뇭3쎻폐믣놨폐맘뗄믘맩뷡맻,룐탋좤뗄뛁헟뿉틔쿲ퟷ헟쯷좡ꆣꋚlogit믘맩쒣탍뗄뷡맻폫probit믘맩쒣탍뗄랢쿖췪좫튻훂ꆣꋛ헢훖럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈뗄늻쿔훸펰쿬펦룃훃폚뻓쏱퓚뾼싇ퟔ벺뗄헻쳥닺ퟩ뫏엤훃뗄쫓뷇쿂,웤훐볈냼삨쇋뒢탮ꆢ햮좯헢킩럧쿕뷏뗍뗄닺탎쪽,튲냼삨쇋막욱ꆢ웚믵헢킩럧쿕뷏룟뗄닺탎쪽ꆣ퓚놾컄쪡싔믣놨뗄쪵횤뷡맻훐,뻓쏱뗄뻸뛔럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈풽룟,뷸탐뒢탮믲릺싲햮좯뗄뿉쓜탔믡쿔훸뗘룼룟,뛸릺싲웚믵뗄뿉쓜탔믡쿔훸뗘룼뗍ꆣ헢킩뫍컷랽컄쿗튻훂,뇭쏷훐맺뻓쏱뗄럧쿕첬뛈뛔웤춶탐캪뗄펰쿬늢늻쫇췪좫뫍컄쿗쿠틬뗄ꆣꋜ뺡맜컒쏇뗄믘맩뷡맻쿔쪾,퓂쫕죫쮮욽듯떽54000풪ퟳ폒쪱돶쿖막쫐닎폫뿉쓜뗄뚥뗣,웤뫳퓂쫕죫쮮욽뗄쳡룟냩쯦ퟅ막쫐닎폫뿉쓜탔뗄쿂붵ꆣ떫54000풪뗄퓂쫕죫쮮욽뛔폚훐맺웕춨뻓쏱살쮵쫇뫜쓑듯떽뗄ꆣ63
샮ꆡ쳎ꆢ맹ꆡ뷜:럧쿕첬뛈폫막욱춶(뛾)훐맺뻓쏱뗄짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈쫇럱붵뗍쇋웤럧쿕첬뛈뛔닎폫막쫐뿉쓜뗄펰쿬?룹뻝떼퇔훐폐맘쳖싛,컒쏇췆뛏,죧맻짧믡뮥뚯뗄좷뿉틔붵뗍뻓쏱춶막욱쪱뛔럧쿕뗄훷맛룐횪돌뛈,쓇쎴컒쏇펦룃랢쿖:폫짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈룼룟뗄뻓쏱쿠뇈,짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈뗍뗄뻓쏱틲웤뛔막욱춶럧쿕뗄훷맛룐횪돌뛈뷏룟,틲뛸쯻뗄럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈뛔웤닎폫막쫐뿉쓜뗄펰쿬믡룼듳ꆣ캪쇋볬퇩틔짏췆싛,컒쏇룹뻝뻓쏱짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈뗄0뫍1뢳횵냑ퟜ퇹놾쾸럖뢳횵캪1뗄룟짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈ퟓ퇹놾뫍뢳횵캪0뗄뗍짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈ퟓ퇹놾,뷸뛸뇈뷏솽ퟩퟓ퇹놾볤뻓쏱뻸뛔럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈뛔웤춶막욱뿉쓜뗄펰쿬쫇럱듦퓚쿔훸닮틬ꆣꋙ폫샮쳎(2007)쿠춬,퓚샫즢뇤솿믘맩쒣탍훐,룹뻝뒫춳뗄럖ퟩ뇤솿폫맘힢뇤솿돋믽살좷뚨맘힢뇤솿믘맩뷡맻뗄ퟩ볤닮틬뗄랽램뿉쓜쫜떽퇹놾틬훊탔돌뛈뗄룉죅뛸돶쿖폐욫뷡맻(Allison,1999),Williams(2006)붨틩닉폃틬훊탔톡퓱쒣탍살볬퇩맘힢뇤솿믘맩쾵쫽믲뇟볊룅싊퓚늻춬퇹놾볤뗄춳볆닮틬,컒쏇쪹폃쇋헢튻랽램ꆣꋚ뛔펦뇭3쪹폃뗄뷢쫍뻓쏱닎폫막쫐뿉쓜뗄죽훖믘맩쒣탍짨뚨,뇭4룸돶쇋닉폃쿠펦뗄믘맩쒣탍짨뚨쪱믹폚뻓쏱짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈뗄쾸럖퇹놾뗄믘맩뷡맻뫍퇹놾볤뻓쏱럧쿕첬뛈펰쿬닮틬뗄볬퇩뷡맻ꆣ뿘훆뇤솿뗄톡폃,돽좥뗴풭폐뗄짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈뇤솿췢,폫ퟜ쳥퇹놾믘맩쒣탍췪좫쿠춬ꆣ캪쇋뷢쫍뗄랽뇣,컒쏇춬쪱믣놨쇋믘맩쾵쫽뫍뇟볊룅싊,럖퇹놾볤럧쿕첬뛈펰쿬뗄춳볆닮틬춨맽뇈뷏뻓쏱뻸뛔럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈뇤솿뗄믘맩쾵쫽뗄닮틬살뷸탐볬퇩ꆣ뇭4쾸럖퇹놾믘맩뫍볬퇩뷡맻짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈뷏뗍뗄ퟓ퇹놾짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈뷏룟뗄ퟓ퇹놾ara쾵쫽쿠뗈knowing-neighbor-d=0knowing-neighbor-d=1뗄춳볆볬퇩믘맩쾵쫽뇟볊룅싊믘맩쾵쫽뇟볊룅싊믘맩랽돌짨뚨(1)훐뗄33ara-62912163-2813357443831035401349833z=2108(-2107)(1125)믘맩랽돌짨뚨(2)훐뗄33ara-59519453-271108837814313010001z=213308(-1195)(1123)믘맩랽돌짨뚨3(3)훐뗄ara-53113667-22133572837311624017173z=21310(-1171)(1120)ꆡꆡ힢33:ꆢ3럖뇰뇭쪾믘맩쾵쫽믲뇟볊룅싊뗄쿔훸탔쮮욽캪5%ꆢ10%ꆣ삨뫅쓚뗄쫇z춳볆뷡맻ꆣ욪럹쯹쿞,컒쏇쪡싔쇋웤쯻뇤솿뗄쿠펦믘맩뷡맻ꆣ퓚볆쯣럧쿕첬뛈쾵쫽뗄ퟩ볤닮틬z볬퇩횵쪱,컒쏇룹뻝Williams(2006)뗄틬훊탔톡퓱쒣탍붨틩,닉폃Stata죭볾훐뗄OGLM쏼쇮,뾼달쇋뛠훖뿉쓜뗄틬훊탔펰쿬틲쯘,늢캴랢쿖쿔훸닮틬ꆣ뇭4쿔쪾,닉폃믘맩랽돌짨뚨(1)쪱,떱뻓쏱뗄짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈뷏뗍쪱,쯻뗄뻸뛔럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈뛔쯻쫇럱횱뷓뷸탐막욱춶폐ퟅ쿔훸펰쿬ꆣ뻟쳥뛸퇔,뻓쏱뗄뻸뛔럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈풽룟,벴뛔럧쿕뗄퇡뛱돌뛈풽잿,쯻닎폫막쫐뗄뿉쓜탔풽뗍;죧맻쯻뗄뻸뛔럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈쳡룟튻룶뇪ힼ닮(010003),웤닎폫막쫐뿉쓜믡붵뗍0186%ꆣ헢훖쿔훸뗄뢺쏦펰쿬뫍컷랽컄쿗튻훂ꆣ쿠랴뗄쫇,떱뻓쏱뗄짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈뷏룟쪱,폫ퟜ쳥퇹놾뗄믘맩뷡맻쿠춬,쯻뗄뻸뛔럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈뛔웤쫇럱닎폫막쫐춶쎻폐쿔훸펰쿬ꆣ헢킩랢쿖뚼럻뫏컒쏇퓚떼퇔훐쳡떽뗄뗚튻룶샭싛췆뛏:평폚짧믡뮥뚯뿉틔붵뗍뻓쏱뛔막욱춶럧쿕뗄훷맛룐횪돌뛈,뻓쏱뗄뻸뛔럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈볈뿉쓜쿔훸붵뗍뻓쏱닎폫막쫐룅싊,튲뿉쓜쎻폐쿔훸펰쿬ꆣ룼캪훘튪뗄쫇,럖퇹놾뗄믘맩쾵쫽볬퇩뇭쏷,뻸뛔럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈뗄믘맩쾵쫽퓚짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈늻춬뗄뻓쏱횮볤듦퓚ퟅ쿔훸닮틬ꆣ헢횧돖쇋컒쏇퓚떼퇔훐쳡떽뗄뗚뛾룶샭싛췆뛏:폫짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈룼룟뗄뻓쏱쿠뇈,짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈룼뗍뗄뻓쏱틲웤뛔막쫐춶럧쿕뗄훷맛룐횪돌뛈뷏룟,ꋙ쇭튻훖랽램쫇릹퓬믹폚믘맩닐닮뗄짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈살ퟷ캪럖ퟩ뇤솿(샮쳎,2007),닉폃헢훖럖ퟩ랽램,뷡맻쎻폐쿔훸닮틬ꆣ떫쫇뛔폚짧믡뮥뚯뗄펰쿬틲쯘컄쿗훐늢쎻폐쿪쾸뗄쳖싛,틲듋퓚헽컄훐컒쏇횱뷓쪹폃쇋짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈풭쪼쫽뻝ퟷ캪럖ퟩ뇪ힼꆣꋚ쿠펦뗄Stata쏼쇮캪oglmꆣ64
2009쓪뗚2웚쯻뗄럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈뛔웤닎폫막쫐뿉쓜뗄펰쿬믡룼듳ꆣ퓚쪡싔믣놨뗄믘맩뷡맻훐,폫ퟜ쳥퇹놾쿠쯆뗄쿔훸믘맩랢쿖뮹냼삨:쓐탔ꆢ쓪뎤뗄뻓쏱ꆢ룼뎤쪱볤뗄쫜뷌폽쓪쿞ꆢ룼뛠뗄퓂쫕죫ꆢ룼뛠뗄볒춥ퟜ닺믲룼죵뗄죚풼쫸돌뛈뚼뛔펦ퟅ룼룟뗄닎폫막쫐뿉쓜ꆣ듋췢,뛔쯹폐뻓쏱뛸퇔,뷏룟뗄볒춥ퟜ햮컱뚼쿔훸붵뗍쇋쯻쏇닎폫막쫐뿉쓜;뛸뛔짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈룼룟뗄뻓쏱뛸퇔,쓪쇤뗄퓶뎤뛔웤닎폫막쫐뿉쓜뗄펰쿬튲돊쿖떹U탍,65쯪쫇헛뗣ꆣ닉폃룼뛠뿘훆뇤솿ퟩ뫏뗄믘맩랽돌짨뚨(2)뫍(3)쿔쪾쇋뫍믘맩랽돌짨뚨(1)튻훂뗄럖퇹놾믘맩뫍볬퇩뷡맻,헢퓙듎횧돖쇋컒쏇맘폚짧믡뮥뚯붵뗍뻓쏱뛔막욱춶럧쿕뗄훷맛룐횪돌뛈뗄솽룶샭싛췆뛏ꆣ뛔짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈뷏뗍뗄뻓쏱뛸퇔,막쫐닎폫뿉쓜쯦웤뻸뛔럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈뗄쳡룟뛸쿔훸붵뗍;죧맻쯻뗄뻸뛔럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈쳡룟튻룶뇪ힼ닮(010003),웤닎폫막쫐뿉쓜믡붵뗍0181%믲0168%ꆣ짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈뷏룟뻓쏱뗄뻸뛔럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈뛔웤닎폫막쫐뿉쓜쎻폐쿔훸펰쿬ꆣ퇹놾볤뗄믘맩쾵쫽볬퇩뇭쏷뻸뛔럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈뗄믘맩쾵쫽퓚짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈늻춬뗄뻓쏱볤듦퓚쿔훸닮틬ꆣퟜ뷡뇭4뗄믘맩랢쿖뫍믘맩쾵쫽닮틬볬퇩뷡맻:짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈룼룟뗄뻓쏱닎폫막쫐뗄뿉쓜탔늻믡쫜떽쯻뗄럧쿕첬뛈뗄쿔훸펰쿬,뛸짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈룼뗍뗄뻓쏱뗄뻸뛔럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈쿔훸붵뗍쇋쯻닎폫막쫐뗄뿉쓜,헢훖닮틬쫇쿔훸뗄ꆣ틲듋,ퟜ쳥퇹놾뫍쾸럖퇹놾훐뗃떽뗄훐맺뻓쏱럧쿕첬뛈뛔웤막쫐춶뿉쓜쎻폐쿔훸펰쿬뗄뷡싛폫컷랽컄쿗늢늻쎬뛜,헢훖럧쿕첬뛈쪧킧랴펳쇋짧믡뮥뚯쓜릻붵뗍뻓쏱뛔막욱춶럧쿕뗄훷맛룐횪돌뛈ꆣ(죽)믘맩럖컶뷡맻뗄컈붡탔볬퇩캪쇋볬퇩틔짏믘맩럖컶뷡맻뗄컈붡돌뛈,컒쏇뮹뷸탐쇋뛠훖뎢쫔ꆣ쫗쿈,컒쏇닉폃쇋늻춬뗄뻓쏱닎폫막쫐돌뛈횸뇪ꆣ폫컢컀탇ꆢ웫쳬쿨(2007)튻훂,뛔뻓쏱닎폫막쫐뗄돌뛈컒쏇튲닉폃쇋뻓쏱돖폐뗄막욱탎쪽뗄뷰죚닺쫐횵햼뻓쏱볒춥ퟜ닺뗄뇈훘ꆣ웤듎,뛔폚뻓쏱짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈뗄뫢솿,컒쏇쪹폃쇋뻓쏱훜캧뗄죋쫇럱쿖퓚듳뛠춶폚막욱뗄탩쓢뇤솿ꆣꋙ뗚죽,뛔폚뻓쏱짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈뗄뫢솿,컒쏇튲닉폃쇋뛠훘샫즢뢳횵뗄랽램,벴뢳횵캪1ꆪ4뗄헻쫽,럖뇰뛔펦뻓쏱늻죏쪶ꆢ죏쪶짙늿럖ꆢ죏쪶뻸듳늿럖믲죏쪶쯹폐쇚뻓뗄쟩뿶ꆣ뗚쯄,닉폃쇋맽좥튻쓪쓚뻓쏱볒춥욽뻹퓂쫕죫믲뻓쏱뗄볒춥퓂뷡폠살닢솿뻓쏱뗄쫕죫쮮욽벰웤욽랽쿮ꆣ헢킩뇤뮯늢캴쿔훸룄뇤뇭3뫍뇭4뗄랢쿖ꆣ듋췢,뛔틔짏럖퇹놾믘맩뷡맻뗄튻룶뿉쓜떣폇쫇:평폚짧믡뮥뚯춬쪱펰쿬ퟅ뻓쏱뛔럧쿕뗄훷맛룐횪돌뛈뫍쯻뗄막쫐닎폫뻶닟,틲뛸헢킩뷡맻랴펳쇋퓚럖퇹놾믘맩랽돌훐뫶싔뗴뗄짧믡뮥뚯뇤솿뗄ퟷ폃ꆣ떫헢훖떣폇늻첫뿉쓜돉솢:짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈풽뗍,룶쳥뛔막욱춶럧쿕뗄룐횪돌뛈풽룟,헢믡럅듳럧쿕첬뛈뛔뻓쏱닎폫막쫐뿉쓜뗄뷢쫍ퟷ폃;뛸뷏뗍뗄짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈폖횱뷓듸살쇋뷏뗍뗄막쫐닎폫뿉쓜(룹뻝짧믡뮥뚯퓚ퟜ퇹놾훐쿔훸캪헽뗄믘맩쾵쫽),틲듋퓚짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈뷏뗍뗄퇹놾훐,뻓쏱뗄럧쿕첬뛈폫웤막욱춶뿉쓜탔믡뢺쿠맘;랴횮틠좻,평폚짧믡뮥뚯뛔뻓쏱춶막욱뿉쓜뫍뛔웤럧쿕뗄훷맛룐횪돌뛈뗄펰쿬췪좫쿠랴,퓚짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈뷏룟뗄퇹놾훐,컒쏇춬퇹뿉틔췆뛏뻓쏱럧쿕첬뛈랴쿲펰쿬ퟅ웤닎폫막쫐뿉쓜,뛸헢폫럖퇹놾쪵횤뷡맻췪좫늻춬ꆣ쯹틔,럖퇹놾볬퇩뷡맻횧돖뗄쫇짧믡뮥뚯붵뗍뻓쏱춶막욱쪱뛔럧쿕뗄훷맛룐횪돌뛈뗄ퟷ폃쟾뗀,뛸늢럇짧믡뮥뚯웤쯼ퟷ폃쟾뗀룉죅뗄뷡맻ꆣ쯄ꆢ뷡싛뫍헾닟몭틥뻓쏱뗄럧쿕첬뛈쫇럱쿔훸펰쿬쇋쯻닎폫막쫐뗄뿉쓜?룹뻝놱뺩냂뛻뛠춶톯훐탄2007쓪헫뛔훐맺15돇쫐1355쏻뻓쏱뷸탐뗄돇쫐춶헟탐캪뗷닩쫽뻝,컒쏇랢쿖,훐맺뻓쏱뗄럧쿕첬뛈뛔웤쫇럱뷸탐막욱춶늢쎻폐쿔훸펰쿬ꆣ뛔폚헢튻늻춬폚컷랽컄쿗뗄훐맺쪽랢쿖,컒쏇쳡돶쇋튻훖ꋙ폫2006쓪냂뛻뛠뗷닩싔폐늻춬,2007쓪냂뛻뛠뗷닩쎻폐톯컊쫜럃헟훜캧뗄죋쫇럱맽좥듳뛠춶폚막욱ꆣ65
샮ꆡ쳎ꆢ맹ꆡ뷜:럧쿕첬뛈폫막욱춶탂뗄샭싛뷢쫍:평폚짧믡뮥뚯뿉틔늻춬돌뛈뗘붵뗍뻓쏱뛔막욱춶럧쿕뗄훷맛룐횪돌뛈,틲듋뻓쏱럧쿕첬뛈뛔웤닎폫막쫐뿉쓜뗄펰쿬틲웤짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈뗄늻춬뛸틬,듓뛸뿉쓜떼훂럧쿕첬뛈뛔뻓쏱쫇럱춶막욱쎻폐쿔훸펰쿬ꆣ죧맻틔짏샭싛뷢쫍돉솢,뷸튻늽뗄췆뛏쫇:폫짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈뷏룟뗄뻓쏱쿠뇈,짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈뷏뗍뗄뻓쏱평폚웤뛔막쫐춶럧쿕뗄훷맛룐횪돌뛈뷏룟,틲듋쯻뗄럧쿕맦뇜돌뛈뛔웤닎폫막쫐뿉쓜뗄펰쿬믡룼듳ꆣ뷸튻늽뗄쾸럖퇹놾믘맩뷡맻뫍쾵쫽닮틬볬퇩횧돖쇋틔짏췆뛏:뛔짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈룼룟뗄뻓쏱뛸퇔,죧맻쯻뗄뻸뛔럧쿕맦뇜첬뛈풽잿,웤닎폫막쫐뗄뿉쓜탔풽뗍;뛔짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈룼뗍뗄뻓쏱뛸퇔,쯻뗄뻸뛔럧쿕맦뇜첬뛈뛔웤쫇럱닎폫막쫐쎻폐쿔훸펰쿬ꆣ헢훖뻸뛔럧쿕맦뇜첬뛈뛔뻓쏱닎폫막쫐뿉쓜뗄펰쿬퓚솽룶ퟓ퇹놾볤듦퓚ퟅ쿔훸닮틬ꆣ컒쏇뗄쪵횤랢쿖폐ퟅ훘튪뗄헾닟몭틥ꆣ훐맺막욱쫐뎡뗄돖탸붡뾵랢햹탨튪캢맛뻓쏱뗄믽벫닎폫,뛸막욱춶쫇돤싺럧쿕뗄,틲듋뻓쏱믽벫춶막욱탨튪돤럖뾼싇떽춶럧쿕뗄듦퓚,헢펦룃뇭쿖캪뻓쏱뗄럧쿕첬뛈쿔훸펰쿬ퟅ쯻쫇럱뷸탐막욱춶ꆣ훐맺쪵볊쟩뿶좴뷘좻늻춬,뻓쏱퓚춶막욱쪱늻퓙쫜떽ퟔ벺럧쿕첬뛈뗄쿔훸펰쿬,뛸헾뢮뗄펦뛔랽헫훷튪뻖쿞퓚쳡쪾뻓쏱막욱춶럧쿕뗄듦퓚,헢쿔좻쫇늻릻뗄ꆣ떱막욱춶돉캪튻훖좺쳥듳훚탐캪쪱,뻓쏱뛔막욱춶럧쿕뗄훷맛룐횪돌뛈믡쿔훸붵뗍,늻볓쟸럖뗘뷸탐볲떥뗄럧쿕쳡쪾웤ퟷ폃뿉쓜럇뎣폐쿞ꆣ퓚늻춬뗄듳훚닎폫막쫐쟩뿶쿂,룹뻝뻓쏱뗄짧믡뮥뚯돌뛈살헫뛔탔뗘잿뮯웤럧쿕틢쪶,뿋럾럧쿕틢쪶떭뮯뗄짧믡탄샭킧펦,쫇헾뢮탨튪ퟅ솦뷢뻶뗄컊쳢,쯼늻뷶펰쿬ퟅ훐맺막욱쫐뎡뗄랢햹잰뺰,룼펰쿬ퟅ맣듳막쏱뗄뢣쏱짺ꆣ닎뾼컄쿗샮쳎,2007ꆶ:닎폫맟탔뫍춶톡퓱ꆷꆶ,뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ뗚8웚ꆣ컢컀탇ꆢ웫쳬쿨,2007ꆶ:쇷뚯탔,짺쏼훜웚폫춶ퟩ뫏뗄쿠틬탔ꆷꆶ,뺭볃퇐뺿ꆷ뗚2웚ꆣ훐맺뷡쯣쫽뻝춳볆럖컶킡ퟩ,2008ꆶ:뺳쓚췢횤좯쫐뎡룶죋춶헟쟩뿶뇈뷏럖컶ꆷ,훐맺횤좯뗇볇뷡쯣폐쿞퓰죎릫쮾퇐뺿놨룦ꆣAllison,P1,1999,ꆰComparingLogitandProbitCoefficientsacrossGroupsꆱ,SociologicalMethodsandResearch,28,ꆪ,.,1970,EssaysintheTheoryofRiskBearing,Amsterdam:,.,,1975,ꆰSomeExplorationsinInitialInteractionandBeyond:TowardaDevelopmentalTheoryofInterpersonalCommunicationꆱ,HumanCommunicationResearch,1,ꆪ,.,,,2002,ꆰJuniorCanꆯtBorrow:ANewPerspectiveontheEquityPremiumPuzzleꆱ,QuarterlyJournalofEconomics,117,ꆪ,C.,2001,ꆰWhatDoestheClassicalTheoryHavetoSayaboutPortfolioChoice?ꆱ,inHouseholdPortfolios,,,eds.,Boston:,L.,,2007,ꆰRiskAversion,WealthAndBackgroundRiskꆱ,JournaloftheEuropeanEconomicAssociation,,L.,,,2007,ꆰTrustingtheStockMarketꆱ,JournalofFinance,,M.,,1995,ꆰWhyDoSoFewHoldStocks?ꆱ,EconomicJournal,105,ꆪ,.,,2000,HumanCommunicationTheoryandResearch,Hillsdale,.:,.,2000,ꆰSubjectiveUncertaintyReductionthroughSelf2categorization:AMotivationalTheoryofSocialIdentityProcessesꆱ,EuropeanReviewofSocialPsychology,11,ꆪ,H.,,,2004,ꆰSocialInteractionandStock2MarketParticipationꆱ,JournalofFinance,59,ꆪ,.,,1995,TheHandbookofExperimentalEconomics,Princeton,.:,A.,,,2002,StatisticalTechniquesinBusinessandEconomics,MaGraw2Hill,,.,,1997,ꆰHouseholdPortfolioAllocationOvertheLifeCycleꆱ,NBERWorkingPaper,,M.,,2005,ꆰOptimismandEconomicChoiceꆱ,NBERWorkingPaper,,.,,2004,ꆰPortfolioChoiceandHealthStatusꆱ,JournalofFinancialEconomics,72,ꆪ
2009쓪뗚2웚Vissing2Jorgensen,A.,2002,ꆰTowardsanExplanationofHouseholdPortfolioChoiceHeterogeneity:NonfinancialIncomeandParticipationCostStructuresꆱ,NBERWorkingPaper,,R.,2006,ꆰUsingHeterogeneousChoiceModelstoCompareLogitandProbitCoefficientsacrossGroupsꆱ,(a:SchoolofEconomics,CUFE;b:SchoolofEconomics,RUC)Abstract:BasedonasurveyofChineseurbanresidentinvestmentbehaviourin15citiesin2007,wefindthatforChinesepeopletakenasawhole,theirriskattitudeshavenosignificanteffectontheirstockinvestmentprobability,:sincedifferentlevelsofsocialinteractioncouldreducethesubjectiveestimationofaninvestorꆯsfeelingonstockinvestmentrisktodifferentextents,,weobservetheabsoluteriskaversionofpeoplewithalowersocialinteractionlevelsignificantlyreducestheirstockinvestmentprobability,,,governmentcouldpromoteboththehealthydevelopmentofChinesestockmarketandindividualinvestorsꆯ:Risk;SocialInteraction;StockMarketParticipationJELClassification:D80,G11,Z13(퓰죎뇠벭:쿾ꆡ폷)(킣뛔:ퟓꆡ)(짏뷓뗚42튳)RelationshipbetweentheDegreeofInternationalizationandthePerformanceYangZhongandZhangXiao(SchoolofAdministration,NanjingUniversity)Abstract:ꆯ,,,,,,:Internationalization;DegreeofInternationalization;PerformanceJELClassification:F230,M160(퓰죎뇠벭:쿾ꆡ폷)(킣뛔:ퟓꆡ)67
